europe on the boil
July 19, 2022 6:26 AM Subscribe
The Met Office has confirmed that the UK has reached 40C (104F) for the first time since records began. The record for overnight temperatures was also broken with 25.9C (79F) recorded. Meanwhile, fires are ravaging France and Spain, with many thousands having to abandon their homes, and the death tolls are rising as the temperature soars. The United Nations secretary general, António Guterres, has once more warned that humanity is in a global crisis.
I sent my Irish friend a bottle of the peppermint Dr. Bronner's just this morning (thank you, AmazonUK). She's been looking after two aging parents and I'm hoping maybe this will help all of them.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 6:41 AM on July 19, 2022 [6 favorites]
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 6:41 AM on July 19, 2022 [6 favorites]
Portugal, last week. A radio reporter driving north on the main highway. The last car through before the police blocked it off. Harrowing.
Hottest temps ever here >47c, little (and massive) fires everywhere.
posted by chavenet at 6:54 AM on July 19, 2022 [16 favorites]
Hottest temps ever here >47c, little (and massive) fires everywhere.
posted by chavenet at 6:54 AM on July 19, 2022 [16 favorites]
It's those overnight temps that kill you. 79° is a summer Texas overnight temperature. Only an AC will get you through it (and keep mold from growing on leather objects).
posted by Bee'sWing at 7:07 AM on July 19, 2022 [15 favorites]
posted by Bee'sWing at 7:07 AM on July 19, 2022 [15 favorites]
Only an AC will get you through it (and keep mold from growing on leather objects).
I live mostly w/out AC in DC, where overnight temperatures routinely hover in the upper 70s - if you are in good health, you can absolutely do this, and its largely a matter of acclimating to it.
AC is one of those things we seem to fall back on as non-negotiable, but, like cars, the basic physics of the planet don't agree or care.
posted by ryanshepard at 7:14 AM on July 19, 2022 [32 favorites]
I live mostly w/out AC in DC, where overnight temperatures routinely hover in the upper 70s - if you are in good health, you can absolutely do this, and its largely a matter of acclimating to it.
AC is one of those things we seem to fall back on as non-negotiable, but, like cars, the basic physics of the planet don't agree or care.
posted by ryanshepard at 7:14 AM on July 19, 2022 [32 favorites]
The UK, (along with much of europe) does not have AC fitted most places, as we've a self-image of being a cold and wet island. Which we were, but becoming a lot less so. Housing stock is largely old and poorly insulated, so cold and damp in the winter, and then badly exposed to ever hotter summers.
I regularly visit family in the south of France, so while I'm used to bouts of this sort of temperature or hotter, there's a huge difference when doing so on holiday, in light clothing and able to jump into the swimming pool at will (including a lovely refreshing dip just before bed), in a building designed for that kind of heat, and suffering through mid-30s temp at the office dressed in 'professional' clothing with nothing but an old fan and lukewarm water, then going home to a red brick heat island with no AC or pool and 25 degC nights.
There's been a number of wild fires here too, but fortunately nowhere near as bad as western France, Spain and Portugal. Right now, looking out the office window, the black clouds are gathering, so we should have relief in a few hours with a spectacular thunder storm.
What's more scary is that the commitment to net zero in the current contest for new UK PM is pretty much nonexistent, in what is the most critical decade, and the small pools of electors are a bunch of reactionaries who only seem to care about tax cuts for the wealthy. And the US is in thrall to an untouchable right wing and supreme court that is frankly terrifying in its anti-climate action activism. I don't think our kids and grandkids are ever going to forgive us.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 7:29 AM on July 19, 2022 [62 favorites]
I regularly visit family in the south of France, so while I'm used to bouts of this sort of temperature or hotter, there's a huge difference when doing so on holiday, in light clothing and able to jump into the swimming pool at will (including a lovely refreshing dip just before bed), in a building designed for that kind of heat, and suffering through mid-30s temp at the office dressed in 'professional' clothing with nothing but an old fan and lukewarm water, then going home to a red brick heat island with no AC or pool and 25 degC nights.
There's been a number of wild fires here too, but fortunately nowhere near as bad as western France, Spain and Portugal. Right now, looking out the office window, the black clouds are gathering, so we should have relief in a few hours with a spectacular thunder storm.
What's more scary is that the commitment to net zero in the current contest for new UK PM is pretty much nonexistent, in what is the most critical decade, and the small pools of electors are a bunch of reactionaries who only seem to care about tax cuts for the wealthy. And the US is in thrall to an untouchable right wing and supreme court that is frankly terrifying in its anti-climate action activism. I don't think our kids and grandkids are ever going to forgive us.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 7:29 AM on July 19, 2022 [62 favorites]
Can confirm that my part of the UK is ridiculously hot right now. We had our first local wildfires (admittedly just a couple of small patches of local woodland) yesterday. Fortunately we're going to see a 20C / 36F drop in temperature tonight, returning us to something like normal.
posted by pipeski at 7:32 AM on July 19, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by pipeski at 7:32 AM on July 19, 2022 [3 favorites]
And yet Manchin says, "Not going to support climate legislation, because inflation is killing people."
I live mostly w/out AC in DC
Cool, so did I my whole childhood and early adulthood, but when I moved to the Deep South, whole different situation.
Anyway, best of luck to everyone stuck in this heatwave. I recommend taking a shower in your sleep clothes right before bed, and not fully drying off, and going into bed wet/damp with a fan - this got me through some brutally hot and humid nights in the past.
posted by coffeecat at 7:32 AM on July 19, 2022 [14 favorites]
I live mostly w/out AC in DC
Cool, so did I my whole childhood and early adulthood, but when I moved to the Deep South, whole different situation.
Anyway, best of luck to everyone stuck in this heatwave. I recommend taking a shower in your sleep clothes right before bed, and not fully drying off, and going into bed wet/damp with a fan - this got me through some brutally hot and humid nights in the past.
posted by coffeecat at 7:32 AM on July 19, 2022 [14 favorites]
Even where housing stock is newer and much better insulated, it is poorly adapted for hot and sunny days because of insufficient attention paid to solar exposures. Fitting external shutters and awnings would make a big difference. It would still be hot as hell today since ambient outdoor temperatures are hot as hell but overall would make summers indoors more pleasant. It is only from this year that Part O of the building regs come into force mandating consideration of solar heating for new builds.
Once prices have settled down after the summer, I will be installing a multi-split A/C system. I've had a few of these once in a lifetime summers and it's only going to get worse. I can always use it as an air-air heat pump system in the winter.
posted by atrazine at 7:36 AM on July 19, 2022 [10 favorites]
Once prices have settled down after the summer, I will be installing a multi-split A/C system. I've had a few of these once in a lifetime summers and it's only going to get worse. I can always use it as an air-air heat pump system in the winter.
posted by atrazine at 7:36 AM on July 19, 2022 [10 favorites]
Interesting but from my puny prescriptive there seems to be no bantering from climate change deniers
posted by robbyrobs at 7:38 AM on July 19, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by robbyrobs at 7:38 AM on July 19, 2022 [2 favorites]
Until recently, the belief was that a human in good health could not indefinitely survive a wet-bulb temperature above 35 degrees Celsius (around 95F, which is a combination of temp + humidity -- in this case a 95F wet bulb temperature exists around 95F + 50% humidity).
This was based on a reasonable assumption of how much a body can be cooled by sweat evaporation (shaded, unclothed, with a fan to aid evaporation). This put areas of the planet into "deadly without AC" territory within the next few decades containing hundreds of millions of people (largely northern India and Pakistan, some parts of Iran and the Arabian peninsula).
A recent study at Penn State indicates that a prolonged wet-bulb temperature of just 31C -- even for healthy people -- can also be deadly.
Combined with the fact that the UK is seeing a heat wave that was presented as a plausible 2050 scenario in 2022, the effects of climate change proceeding more rapidly than even the pessimistic end of the IPCC reports, and that wet-bulb temperatures much lower may be far more harmful than previously expected, this adds up to some very serious shit, and it will be happening far more often, far sooner than nearly everyone expects.
posted by tclark at 7:39 AM on July 19, 2022 [65 favorites]
This was based on a reasonable assumption of how much a body can be cooled by sweat evaporation (shaded, unclothed, with a fan to aid evaporation). This put areas of the planet into "deadly without AC" territory within the next few decades containing hundreds of millions of people (largely northern India and Pakistan, some parts of Iran and the Arabian peninsula).
A recent study at Penn State indicates that a prolonged wet-bulb temperature of just 31C -- even for healthy people -- can also be deadly.
Combined with the fact that the UK is seeing a heat wave that was presented as a plausible 2050 scenario in 2022, the effects of climate change proceeding more rapidly than even the pessimistic end of the IPCC reports, and that wet-bulb temperatures much lower may be far more harmful than previously expected, this adds up to some very serious shit, and it will be happening far more often, far sooner than nearly everyone expects.
posted by tclark at 7:39 AM on July 19, 2022 [65 favorites]
Cool, so did I my whole childhood and early adulthood, but when I moved to the Deep South, whole different situation.
There may be parts of the US where it becomes harder or impossible to live (there were obv. many that were avoided, at least for full-time habitation, pre-AC). In the end, though, of course, the climate bats last, and trying to hold back adapting to it through energy-intensive means is only making the problem worse.
The "give me comfort and convenience or give me death" US lifestyle is a dead man walking, no matter how we feel about it, or how much we have to suffer in moving beyond it.
posted by ryanshepard at 7:42 AM on July 19, 2022 [19 favorites]
There may be parts of the US where it becomes harder or impossible to live (there were obv. many that were avoided, at least for full-time habitation, pre-AC). In the end, though, of course, the climate bats last, and trying to hold back adapting to it through energy-intensive means is only making the problem worse.
The "give me comfort and convenience or give me death" US lifestyle is a dead man walking, no matter how we feel about it, or how much we have to suffer in moving beyond it.
posted by ryanshepard at 7:42 AM on July 19, 2022 [19 favorites]
Interesting but from my puny prescriptive there seems to be no bantering from climate change deniers
Oh, there's been plenty, don't worry.
posted by fight or flight at 7:42 AM on July 19, 2022 [3 favorites]
Oh, there's been plenty, don't worry.
posted by fight or flight at 7:42 AM on July 19, 2022 [3 favorites]
Sunny day snowflake Britain had a meltdown
But it's not too hot for a bearskin ... and Charles didn't even take his jacket and tie off!
That's the front page of the Daily Mail.
Sigh...
I mean...
People thought the media's denialism in Don't Look Up! was too hyperbolic. Here we are. In this week's culture war they are fighting ... the fucking sun.
It's those overnight temps that kill you. 79° is a summer Texas overnight temperature. Only an AC will get you through it (and keep mold from growing on leather objects).
Keep your pillows in the chest freezer.
posted by adept256 at 7:44 AM on July 19, 2022 [21 favorites]
But it's not too hot for a bearskin ... and Charles didn't even take his jacket and tie off!
That's the front page of the Daily Mail.
Sigh...
I mean...
People thought the media's denialism in Don't Look Up! was too hyperbolic. Here we are. In this week's culture war they are fighting ... the fucking sun.
It's those overnight temps that kill you. 79° is a summer Texas overnight temperature. Only an AC will get you through it (and keep mold from growing on leather objects).
Keep your pillows in the chest freezer.
posted by adept256 at 7:44 AM on July 19, 2022 [21 favorites]
I feel for you, UK friends. My SIL and her family are in Billericay, and she was telling my husband that their house is just not made for those temperatures. I'm a native Southerner, and I am not made for that temperature. It's surreal and depressing to be alive in a time where we can see how different climate was now as compared to when we were younger. Like, it's so stark!
posted by Kitteh at 7:57 AM on July 19, 2022 [6 favorites]
posted by Kitteh at 7:57 AM on July 19, 2022 [6 favorites]
Yesterday the high in Tempe was 40c. (Today it will be hotter, 44, but we have AC and buildings designed for the heat). London should not be the same temp as AZ.
Also AC isn’t really the problem with living in AZ; the energy cost to cool a well-designed space is generally less than the cost to heat one in a place that gets very cold in the winter. The problem here is water. And in areas with trees, wildfire. When I was a kid, wildfires in the western US had a season. Now, the season is always.
I am so sorry that Spain and Portugal have joined us there.
posted by nat at 8:10 AM on July 19, 2022 [18 favorites]
Also AC isn’t really the problem with living in AZ; the energy cost to cool a well-designed space is generally less than the cost to heat one in a place that gets very cold in the winter. The problem here is water. And in areas with trees, wildfire. When I was a kid, wildfires in the western US had a season. Now, the season is always.
I am so sorry that Spain and Portugal have joined us there.
posted by nat at 8:10 AM on July 19, 2022 [18 favorites]
There is not very much outright climate change denialism in the UK, even the preposterous Daily Mail isn't trying to deny the role of climate change in this heatwave in the rest of its coverage. Nor indeed, has it played a massive role in the current Conservative leadership election where even the now eliminated Badenoch rowed back on her previous skeptical view on net zero by 2050.
The problem, as demonstrated by Badenoch is insufficient measures being taken, especially outside of the electricity and ground transport sectors, to actually hit those goals. We could easily end up with leadership that continues to commit to net zero by 2050 without putting in place any additional policies and funding to actually do it.
posted by atrazine at 8:26 AM on July 19, 2022 [5 favorites]
The problem, as demonstrated by Badenoch is insufficient measures being taken, especially outside of the electricity and ground transport sectors, to actually hit those goals. We could easily end up with leadership that continues to commit to net zero by 2050 without putting in place any additional policies and funding to actually do it.
posted by atrazine at 8:26 AM on July 19, 2022 [5 favorites]
Until recently, the belief was that a human in good health could not indefinitely survive a wet-bulb temperature above 35 degrees Celsius (around 95F, which is a combination of temp + humidity -- in this case a 95F wet bulb temperature exists around 95F + 50% humidity).
I couldn't get a wet bulb temperature of 95F with 50% humidity without a actual temp of 113F with a dew point temperature of 89F, and a heat index of 160F. That's basically the US record for dew point, recorded in 1987 in Florida. The world record is higher, Dhahran, Saudi Arabia, with a heat index temperature of 178F.
So yeah, that would be hard for people to live at. However, it's also 10F worth of dew point temperature above S Florida and 15F worth of temperature. The rest of the US is less humid, topping out at dew points of 75F.
posted by The_Vegetables at 8:27 AM on July 19, 2022 [1 favorite]
I couldn't get a wet bulb temperature of 95F with 50% humidity without a actual temp of 113F with a dew point temperature of 89F, and a heat index of 160F. That's basically the US record for dew point, recorded in 1987 in Florida. The world record is higher, Dhahran, Saudi Arabia, with a heat index temperature of 178F.
So yeah, that would be hard for people to live at. However, it's also 10F worth of dew point temperature above S Florida and 15F worth of temperature. The rest of the US is less humid, topping out at dew points of 75F.
posted by The_Vegetables at 8:27 AM on July 19, 2022 [1 favorite]
Here to agree with nat. London at temps we have to suffer through here central AZ (but with humidity!) is terrifying. Wildfires running rampant across southern Europe is terrifying. Last week our A/C started dying when it was over 110F in the day, and mid-80s through the night. Mr. Objects and I dropped over $4000 in next day A/C repairs, because you can't live like that here for more than a couple days. Holy heck, what are people even going to do? 2-3 billion people can't just flee to more hospitible climates. There aren't any! And you know, war. Christ.
posted by sharp pointy objects at 8:28 AM on July 19, 2022 [12 favorites]
posted by sharp pointy objects at 8:28 AM on July 19, 2022 [12 favorites]
heat is much different than cold. cold you can bundle up for, almost no matter how cold it gets on this planet. but once it gets to a certain heat, your continued lifespan is measured in hours, if not minutes, and there's literally nothing you can do about it but get to a cooler place, and if one isn't available, you absolutely will die.
you may quibble about "oh but -50c is just as deadly as +50c" well honey, even if you were right, and you're not, there's 75 degrees difference between "room" temperature and way too fucking cold, but only 25C between there and too fucking hot.
and if it's humid, 35C absolutely will kill you, and that's only 10C away from "room temperature."
I get like, people who didn't live in e.g. Florida or other humid tropical climates tend to wave off heat, and buddy, if you haven't had drilled into you from a young age about just how fast you can go from heat exhaustion (where, by the way, your brain starts shutting down and making very stupid decisions) to heat stroke (where you are literal minutes from death) to actual dead if no one is around to help you cool down, maybe it's not easy to understand but that's what we got hammered into us when I grew up. The heat is a killer.
when it's very hot, death is very near. that's why this climate shit is so for real.
posted by seanmpuckett at 8:35 AM on July 19, 2022 [98 favorites]
you may quibble about "oh but -50c is just as deadly as +50c" well honey, even if you were right, and you're not, there's 75 degrees difference between "room" temperature and way too fucking cold, but only 25C between there and too fucking hot.
and if it's humid, 35C absolutely will kill you, and that's only 10C away from "room temperature."
I get like, people who didn't live in e.g. Florida or other humid tropical climates tend to wave off heat, and buddy, if you haven't had drilled into you from a young age about just how fast you can go from heat exhaustion (where, by the way, your brain starts shutting down and making very stupid decisions) to heat stroke (where you are literal minutes from death) to actual dead if no one is around to help you cool down, maybe it's not easy to understand but that's what we got hammered into us when I grew up. The heat is a killer.
when it's very hot, death is very near. that's why this climate shit is so for real.
posted by seanmpuckett at 8:35 AM on July 19, 2022 [98 favorites]
Meanwhile back in Australia, our still somewhat honeymoon Government is attempting to pass legislation that limits our emissions reduction target for 2030 to the 43% they took to the election, apparently purely to give our lazy local press another opportunity to paint the Greens (who naturally oppose any such limit) as perfection-addicted obstructionists to "realistic" climate policy. Oh, and they're supporting ongoing coal exports and expanded gasfield production as well.
I'm so sorry, Europe.
posted by flabdablet at 8:35 AM on July 19, 2022 [7 favorites]
I'm so sorry, Europe.
posted by flabdablet at 8:35 AM on July 19, 2022 [7 favorites]
According to NPR, there have been over 70 deaths so far in Spain 7& Portugal:
"Climate change kills," Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez said Monday during a visit to the Extremadura region, the site of three major blazes. "It kills people, it kills our ecosystems and biodiversity."posted by wenestvedt at 8:36 AM on July 19, 2022 [2 favorites]
Teresa Ribera, Spain's minister for ecological transition, described her country as "literally under fire" as she attended talks on climate change in Berlin.
She warned of "terrifying prospects still for the days to come" — after more than 10 days of temperatures over 40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Fahrenheit), cooling only moderately at night.
The thing that keeps me up at night is the knowledge that when the icecaps melt and every place on the planet is either entirely underwater or on fire, the piece of shit politicians will turn to the scientists and ask "Why didn't you tell us this was going to happen?"
Selling our future for short-term profits. It just makes me angry.
The oil executives. The Koch bros. The Fox News talking heads. All of them are rich enough that they and their children will be insulated from the fallout, and that is just entirely fucking wrong. They don't deserve to remain comfortable. I'm not saying "heads on a pike" here; even if the parents deserve it, their descendants didn't earn this kind of revenge - but the generational wealth these people think will save their families from the fallout should be repossessed (forcefully, if need be) and used for the community good. ESPECIALLY so in full knowledge that many of them knew full well that they were lying to increase their own earnings, and did it anyway, damn the consequences.
posted by caution live frogs at 8:37 AM on July 19, 2022 [32 favorites]
Selling our future for short-term profits. It just makes me angry.
The oil executives. The Koch bros. The Fox News talking heads. All of them are rich enough that they and their children will be insulated from the fallout, and that is just entirely fucking wrong. They don't deserve to remain comfortable. I'm not saying "heads on a pike" here; even if the parents deserve it, their descendants didn't earn this kind of revenge - but the generational wealth these people think will save their families from the fallout should be repossessed (forcefully, if need be) and used for the community good. ESPECIALLY so in full knowledge that many of them knew full well that they were lying to increase their own earnings, and did it anyway, damn the consequences.
posted by caution live frogs at 8:37 AM on July 19, 2022 [32 favorites]
I'm not saying "heads on a pike" here; even if the parents deserve it,
I mean, they're the ones that want to roll back the country to 1790. What's good for the goose...
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 8:39 AM on July 19, 2022 [18 favorites]
I mean, they're the ones that want to roll back the country to 1790. What's good for the goose...
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 8:39 AM on July 19, 2022 [18 favorites]
I'm reminded that at my Aussie school that by law we're allowed to go home when it hit 40 degrees. For us boarders this meant going to the school's olympic swimming pool. This happened three times in the five years I was there.
Hell was 39 degrees.
posted by adept256 at 8:43 AM on July 19, 2022 [14 favorites]
Hell was 39 degrees.
posted by adept256 at 8:43 AM on July 19, 2022 [14 favorites]
Yeah, I'm seeing some people noting that this will "hopefully be a warning sign" to the government and others to finally take climate change seriously. And it's like, no, scientists were giving us warning signs 20 - 30 years ago. The giant flashing red DO NOT PROCEED BEYOND THIS POINT alarms were going off 10 years ago. Now we're all just fucked. I wouldn't blame climate scientists for putting out a "we told you so" statement at this point and flipping everyone off before leaving, but they're generally too classy to do that.
posted by fight or flight at 8:44 AM on July 19, 2022 [30 favorites]
posted by fight or flight at 8:44 AM on July 19, 2022 [30 favorites]
you may quibble about "oh but -50c is just as deadly as +50c" well honey, even if you were right, and you're not,
I'd quibble with everything you wrote, except that I agree that people generally treat extreme temperature differences differently, ie: the vast majority of outdoor workers will be working in 45C+ temperatures, whereas the number of people working outdoors at -25C and below drops off dramatically.
posted by The_Vegetables at 8:48 AM on July 19, 2022 [1 favorite]
I'd quibble with everything you wrote, except that I agree that people generally treat extreme temperature differences differently, ie: the vast majority of outdoor workers will be working in 45C+ temperatures, whereas the number of people working outdoors at -25C and below drops off dramatically.
posted by The_Vegetables at 8:48 AM on July 19, 2022 [1 favorite]
It's 100F/38C here in Amsterdam, where we are in what should be the hottest hours of the hottest day for this wave. Prepping for this felt like a mix of early covid and Burning Man. Cut up a melon and put it in the fridge, put some grapes in the freezer, filled a spray bottle with minty water for spritzing, closed every blind and curtain last night, opened every window that doesn't have curtains, and now we're, honestly, not even trying to work. I think I might go take another cold shower. The positive thing I can say is that, unlike where I grew up in Louisiana, the humidity is only 25% here, so misting yourself with water actually does cool you down a bit. Although the other difference is that in Louisiana we all had air conditioning.
posted by antinomia at 8:48 AM on July 19, 2022 [15 favorites]
posted by antinomia at 8:48 AM on July 19, 2022 [15 favorites]
Arguing about net zero by 2050 is like arguing about a life-boat policy by three weeks after the Titanic sunk.
posted by signal at 8:50 AM on July 19, 2022 [9 favorites]
posted by signal at 8:50 AM on July 19, 2022 [9 favorites]
According to BNO News it's up to over 1000 deaths in Portugal and Spain.
posted by foxfirefey at 8:50 AM on July 19, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by foxfirefey at 8:50 AM on July 19, 2022 [3 favorites]
Arguing about net zero by 2050 is like arguing about a life-boat policy by three weeks after the Titanic sunk.
2050 is centrist for "never".
posted by ryanshepard at 8:54 AM on July 19, 2022 [65 favorites]
2050 is centrist for "never".
posted by ryanshepard at 8:54 AM on July 19, 2022 [65 favorites]
As far as warning signs go, this literally already happened 19 years ago (with 72,000 heat-related deaths). There's a weirdly pervasive idea that things being bad leads to positive political change, but that just isn't how it works. People, especially the elites whose desires shape political decisionmaking, do not become more altruistic in crisis conditions.
posted by derrinyet at 8:54 AM on July 19, 2022 [26 favorites]
posted by derrinyet at 8:54 AM on July 19, 2022 [26 favorites]
The lack of AC here in London is BRUTAL. These old brick and wood houses have the approximate temperature dynamics of a pizza oven, and it's suffocatingly hot all night long.
I grew up in Florida (with AC). This is absolutely, tangibly, worse that anything I even had to live with back in the day. At the risk of stating the blindingly obvious, it's not supposed to be this hot in the North Atlantic.
posted by Optamystic at 8:56 AM on July 19, 2022 [18 favorites]
I grew up in Florida (with AC). This is absolutely, tangibly, worse that anything I even had to live with back in the day. At the risk of stating the blindingly obvious, it's not supposed to be this hot in the North Atlantic.
posted by Optamystic at 8:56 AM on July 19, 2022 [18 favorites]
2050 is centrist for "never".
Luckily for those folks we might as well already be in 2050 in terms of how fast climate change has started to mess shit up (way faster than a lot of models besides the real worst case scenarios), so they might not have to wait that long for "never" to arrive!
posted by fight or flight at 8:58 AM on July 19, 2022 [1 favorite]
Luckily for those folks we might as well already be in 2050 in terms of how fast climate change has started to mess shit up (way faster than a lot of models besides the real worst case scenarios), so they might not have to wait that long for "never" to arrive!
posted by fight or flight at 8:58 AM on July 19, 2022 [1 favorite]
Iberia on fire, with deadly heatwaves, makes me terribly sad.
I was born in Rota, where my dad was stationed during his time in the US Navy. We only lived there 11 months after I was born before returning to the States.
Their memories include occasionally brutally heat, with southern winds off the Sahara making 3pm all but intolerable. That was a local phenomenon, not the entire peninsula-as-Bessemer furnace, however. This is about whether this place can support the country it has evolved to be over centuries. The answer looks like "no".
posted by Caxton1476 at 8:58 AM on July 19, 2022 [2 favorites]
I was born in Rota, where my dad was stationed during his time in the US Navy. We only lived there 11 months after I was born before returning to the States.
Their memories include occasionally brutally heat, with southern winds off the Sahara making 3pm all but intolerable. That was a local phenomenon, not the entire peninsula-as-Bessemer furnace, however. This is about whether this place can support the country it has evolved to be over centuries. The answer looks like "no".
posted by Caxton1476 at 8:58 AM on July 19, 2022 [2 favorites]
Look, environmentally-friendly infrastructure is *nicer* than car-dependent infrastructure. The kind of changes that reduce fossil fuel use in towns and cities are the same things that make towns and cities more pleasant to be in, easier to get around, and more beautiful. Here's a whole youtube channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/NotJustBikes
Induction stoves heat a pot of water in half the time a gas stove does.
Heat pumps save you money and can heat and cool your house. Add some solar panels it's even better.
When I lived in the states the messages about environmentally friendly living seemed to be all about sacrifice, deprivation, and wagging your finger. But perhaps a more effective message is about how nicer life is when all these measures are put in place and better infrastructure is built.
posted by antinomia at 9:07 AM on July 19, 2022 [82 favorites]
Induction stoves heat a pot of water in half the time a gas stove does.
Heat pumps save you money and can heat and cool your house. Add some solar panels it's even better.
When I lived in the states the messages about environmentally friendly living seemed to be all about sacrifice, deprivation, and wagging your finger. But perhaps a more effective message is about how nicer life is when all these measures are put in place and better infrastructure is built.
posted by antinomia at 9:07 AM on July 19, 2022 [82 favorites]
I absolutely believe in climate change and global warming but the Earth has gone through extreme weather patterns way before we managed to screw up the environment, could we just be going through these patterns? I mean 2C a year is a long way to 40C. I worry a little bit that calling any extreme weather event a direct result of human climate change undermines the Earth really does have a living climate that can experience extremes. Plus in the grand scheme of things we haven't been keeping records that long.
I do worry a country not used to such heat will see elderly and other vulnerable populations experience ill effects. I'm in the midwest and basically you don't go out past 8AM and the 10 day forecast is 100F+high humidity but I also have two AC units and am used to dealing with this sort of weather in newly build houses.
posted by geoff. at 9:09 AM on July 19, 2022 [2 favorites]
I do worry a country not used to such heat will see elderly and other vulnerable populations experience ill effects. I'm in the midwest and basically you don't go out past 8AM and the 10 day forecast is 100F+high humidity but I also have two AC units and am used to dealing with this sort of weather in newly build houses.
posted by geoff. at 9:09 AM on July 19, 2022 [2 favorites]
I absolutely believe in climate change and global warming but the Earth has gone through extreme weather patterns way before we managed to screw up the environment, could we just be going through these patterns?
No.
posted by ryanshepard at 9:12 AM on July 19, 2022 [92 favorites]
No.
posted by ryanshepard at 9:12 AM on July 19, 2022 [92 favorites]
I'm coming to understand that the US is going to treat Climate Crisis the way it does school massacres. Waving of arms, media coverage, concern, no real change. In fact, we'll still suck up to oil producing blocs, and let oil companies rule, so we'll continue actively making it worse. This is disheartening at the very least. I am looking for like-minded people who will demonstrate with me; this is still an issue where education and awareness really matter. I'm sorry to be a doomsayer, but the desire for profit without consequences rules the US, and much of the world.
I live in Maine across the street from a lake, there's almost always a breeze and the heat is rarely oppressive. New neighbors rehabbed a house that was quite similar to mine. Full AC and windows never open. At least the AC seems to be heat pumps. I'm guess I'm glad I'm hearing impaired because they're not silent and they're below my bedroom window. I grew up in humid southern Ohio with no AC except a window unit in my parent's bedroom. Hot & humid & oppressive and we rode bikes to the pool, played in the trees, etc. There's a nice summer lifestyle of relaxation, iced tea, shade tees, attic fans, boating. Not always available to everyone, but my neighborhood was originally built as cheap summer/fishing camps for working people. In Maine, you're near the ocean, a lake, some altitude, woods. People are moving here because it's a pretty great place and because they see Climate Crisis looming.
It's unconscionable that homes are built without a solar site plan and an energy plan. 98% of new builds I see just face the road, and the road is curvy and a bit random because that popular right now. We need a commission of building to help manufacturers make building supplies that are energy efficient; lack of available supplies hinders good construction practice.
AC and dehumidifiers made it possible to live in Florida and Arizona. Those sunny states have rejected solar as a hippie/ liberal idea, and it's time to get the fuck over that. We approach Climate response from a Doing Good perspective but solar has gotten affordable and better, and is an opportunity to have distributed power generation. People really want AC; it's non-negotiable for many; we need ways to make it less destructive.
posted by theora55 at 9:14 AM on July 19, 2022 [11 favorites]
I live in Maine across the street from a lake, there's almost always a breeze and the heat is rarely oppressive. New neighbors rehabbed a house that was quite similar to mine. Full AC and windows never open. At least the AC seems to be heat pumps. I'm guess I'm glad I'm hearing impaired because they're not silent and they're below my bedroom window. I grew up in humid southern Ohio with no AC except a window unit in my parent's bedroom. Hot & humid & oppressive and we rode bikes to the pool, played in the trees, etc. There's a nice summer lifestyle of relaxation, iced tea, shade tees, attic fans, boating. Not always available to everyone, but my neighborhood was originally built as cheap summer/fishing camps for working people. In Maine, you're near the ocean, a lake, some altitude, woods. People are moving here because it's a pretty great place and because they see Climate Crisis looming.
It's unconscionable that homes are built without a solar site plan and an energy plan. 98% of new builds I see just face the road, and the road is curvy and a bit random because that popular right now. We need a commission of building to help manufacturers make building supplies that are energy efficient; lack of available supplies hinders good construction practice.
AC and dehumidifiers made it possible to live in Florida and Arizona. Those sunny states have rejected solar as a hippie/ liberal idea, and it's time to get the fuck over that. We approach Climate response from a Doing Good perspective but solar has gotten affordable and better, and is an opportunity to have distributed power generation. People really want AC; it's non-negotiable for many; we need ways to make it less destructive.
posted by theora55 at 9:14 AM on July 19, 2022 [11 favorites]
Where I am it's "only" 36C outside, and the hottest room in my house is now 34C. Loft conversions are not good in weather like this.
It's very clear that 20 years ago when this building was converted for housing, nobody was thinking about energy costs (lots of radiators, huge single-glazed windows, draughty front door) or hot summers (roof windows that can't be completely covered, so few openable windows that you can't get a through-draught overnight).
Every summer I look up portable air conditioners. Every summer I discover yet again that they're too heavy to get up the stairs and won't work with my windows anyway.
posted by ManyLeggedCreature at 9:15 AM on July 19, 2022 [2 favorites]
It's very clear that 20 years ago when this building was converted for housing, nobody was thinking about energy costs (lots of radiators, huge single-glazed windows, draughty front door) or hot summers (roof windows that can't be completely covered, so few openable windows that you can't get a through-draught overnight).
Every summer I look up portable air conditioners. Every summer I discover yet again that they're too heavy to get up the stairs and won't work with my windows anyway.
posted by ManyLeggedCreature at 9:15 AM on July 19, 2022 [2 favorites]
I'm not saying "heads on a pike" here;
I'm thinking heads on a pike might be the only way in the near future
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 9:17 AM on July 19, 2022 [25 favorites]
I'm thinking heads on a pike might be the only way in the near future
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 9:17 AM on July 19, 2022 [25 favorites]
Hell was 39 degrees.
that was Vancouver roughly a year ago.
One counter-intuitive thing that worked surprisingly well was taking a bath in water that was effectively blood temperature. Obviously, you don't want it any hotter than that, but for maximum prolonged cooling effect, you don't want it much cooler either. Because immersion in cold water spikes your metabolism -- heats things up internally. Whereas blood temperature (roughly 99 degrees) tends to stabilize things.
The trick then is not to do anything afterword. Because any exertion at all is going to start that metabolism again.
Hoping for the best for everyone affected.
posted by philip-random at 9:17 AM on July 19, 2022 [7 favorites]
that was Vancouver roughly a year ago.
One counter-intuitive thing that worked surprisingly well was taking a bath in water that was effectively blood temperature. Obviously, you don't want it any hotter than that, but for maximum prolonged cooling effect, you don't want it much cooler either. Because immersion in cold water spikes your metabolism -- heats things up internally. Whereas blood temperature (roughly 99 degrees) tends to stabilize things.
The trick then is not to do anything afterword. Because any exertion at all is going to start that metabolism again.
Hoping for the best for everyone affected.
posted by philip-random at 9:17 AM on July 19, 2022 [7 favorites]
I mean 2C a year is a long way to 40C. I worry a little bit that calling any extreme weather event a direct result of human climate change undermines the Earth really does have a living climate that can experience extremes. Plus in the grand scheme of things we haven't been keeping records that long.
The problem is that a lot of the systems that control other things don't care how long an extreme weather event lasts, but are affected only by intensity.
If a person is old and dies of heat exhaustion the fact that it was 40C for only a day doesn't help. If the extreme was 38C instead of 40C far more people would have survived. If crops die of heat (or extreme transient frost events, i.e. Texas) it doesn't help that the weather was extreme for only a day. If there's a wildfire started from sagging lines being strained by ACs during record power usage during extreme heat it doesn't help that it weather was extreme for only a day.
These transient events have knock on effects that resonate through our lives. It's not just "oh it's just a hot day get over it".
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 9:21 AM on July 19, 2022 [28 favorites]
The problem is that a lot of the systems that control other things don't care how long an extreme weather event lasts, but are affected only by intensity.
If a person is old and dies of heat exhaustion the fact that it was 40C for only a day doesn't help. If the extreme was 38C instead of 40C far more people would have survived. If crops die of heat (or extreme transient frost events, i.e. Texas) it doesn't help that the weather was extreme for only a day. If there's a wildfire started from sagging lines being strained by ACs during record power usage during extreme heat it doesn't help that it weather was extreme for only a day.
These transient events have knock on effects that resonate through our lives. It's not just "oh it's just a hot day get over it".
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 9:21 AM on July 19, 2022 [28 favorites]
I guess the difference with gun massacres is that you may have one in your city and it won't effect your day directly. It's very sad and unsettling, of course, but if you were having a no-news day you wouldn't even know it happened. A heat wave in your city effects the entire population and is impossible to ignore.
posted by adept256 at 9:23 AM on July 19, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by adept256 at 9:23 AM on July 19, 2022 [4 favorites]
I couldn't get a wet bulb temperature of 95F with 50% humidity without a actual temp of 113F
Pretty sure the original post was meant to say 100% humidity.
posted by atoxyl at 9:29 AM on July 19, 2022 [1 favorite]
Pretty sure the original post was meant to say 100% humidity.
posted by atoxyl at 9:29 AM on July 19, 2022 [1 favorite]
I'm not saying "heads on a pike" here
I am.
posted by nushustu at 9:31 AM on July 19, 2022 [23 favorites]
I am.
posted by nushustu at 9:31 AM on July 19, 2022 [23 favorites]
What gets me is that in a sense, it doesn't matter whether human activity has caused global heating or not: the globe looks to be heating, and that's not going to be good for anything that lives on it, which includes us, so hey, wouldn't it be a good idea to throw everything we've got at trying to fix it?
posted by ManyLeggedCreature at 9:31 AM on July 19, 2022 [27 favorites]
posted by ManyLeggedCreature at 9:31 AM on July 19, 2022 [27 favorites]
I couldn't get a wet bulb temperature of 95F with 50% humidity without a actual temp of 113F
Pretty sure the original post was meant to say 100% humidity.
Yes, apologies, it's 95F + 100% or around 110F + 50% humidity, I screwed up while I was editing and only edited one side of the combo.
posted by tclark at 9:31 AM on July 19, 2022 [3 favorites]
Pretty sure the original post was meant to say 100% humidity.
Yes, apologies, it's 95F + 100% or around 110F + 50% humidity, I screwed up while I was editing and only edited one side of the combo.
posted by tclark at 9:31 AM on July 19, 2022 [3 favorites]
The stock price of German-owned energy company RWE, the worst polluter in the UK, is currently up by 3.99%.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 9:39 AM on July 19, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by DirtyOldTown at 9:39 AM on July 19, 2022 [3 favorites]
A heat wave in your city effects the entire population and is impossible to ignore.
it gets a little easier with air conditioning. Just stay inside all day, maybe pull the blinds.
I don't have air conditioning.
posted by philip-random at 9:47 AM on July 19, 2022
it gets a little easier with air conditioning. Just stay inside all day, maybe pull the blinds.
I don't have air conditioning.
posted by philip-random at 9:47 AM on July 19, 2022
I did have to bite my tongue when a well-meaning US-based internet commentator suggested that UK folks rig up a styrofoam cooler with a bag of ice dumped in it, with holes punched in the side for a fan to blow air through. Unless things have changed beyond recognition in the 20 years I've been away from the UK, "bag of ice" and "styrofoam coolers" aren't (or weren't) things you could get there.
posted by scruss at 9:48 AM on July 19, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by scruss at 9:48 AM on July 19, 2022 [4 favorites]
You can get bags of ice from any supermarket (not today though!) in the UK. Styrofoam coolers are commonly used for shipping meat, fish, or medication though I confess I wouldn't know where I could get one at short notice.
posted by atrazine at 9:54 AM on July 19, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by atrazine at 9:54 AM on July 19, 2022 [5 favorites]
I don't know if this will help anyone, but as a longtime resident of the hot/wet part of the southern US, who had the misfortune of spending much of my young adult life there in charming/derelict historic buildings with no (or oft-malfunctioning) air conditioning, drink plenty of water and if your'e also drinking alcohol drink double or triple the water. Also a couple of inexpensive box fans can do a lot to create breeze. It often feels (counterintuitively) worse at night. My late, favorite great-aunt (a Mississippi native who spent her adult life in NOLA) used to advise putting your bed sheets in the fridge or at least an hour before bed. It sounds insane, but I have tried this. It helps.
posted by thivaia at 9:55 AM on July 19, 2022 [8 favorites]
posted by thivaia at 9:55 AM on July 19, 2022 [8 favorites]
Yeah, isn't the whole controversy that the UK isn't set up to deal with heat in the same way that say, certain regions of the US are?
posted by jenfullmoon at 9:58 AM on July 19, 2022 [10 favorites]
posted by jenfullmoon at 9:58 AM on July 19, 2022 [10 favorites]
if you have long enough hair, french braid it wet. the wet hair clinging to your scalp acts like a swamp cooler. I used to do this in hot, humid NJ in my cheap college apartment with no AC.
posted by supermedusa at 10:05 AM on July 19, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by supermedusa at 10:05 AM on July 19, 2022 [3 favorites]
I'd think the controversy is that the UK seeing over 37C means something is seriously fucking wrong.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 10:06 AM on July 19, 2022 [24 favorites]
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 10:06 AM on July 19, 2022 [24 favorites]
Yeah, isn't the whole controversy that the UK isn't set up to deal with heat in the same way that say, certain regions of the US are?
And that's the thing! I don't think we in North America appreciate how much access we have to things like portable A/Cs or other mostly NA specific options for heat relief. It very much feels like when Canadians and NE folks get real high and mighty about winter storms in the South, not understanding (or really, not caring) that there has never been a need for snow removal/road salt/ploughs, historically.
posted by Kitteh at 10:09 AM on July 19, 2022 [21 favorites]
And that's the thing! I don't think we in North America appreciate how much access we have to things like portable A/Cs or other mostly NA specific options for heat relief. It very much feels like when Canadians and NE folks get real high and mighty about winter storms in the South, not understanding (or really, not caring) that there has never been a need for snow removal/road salt/ploughs, historically.
posted by Kitteh at 10:09 AM on July 19, 2022 [21 favorites]
Back in the late ‘50’s, Bell Telephone sponsored a series of science programs on TV meant for kids. All were hosted by Dr Frank Baxter. The one on weather ended by presenting the science behind global warming, greenhouse gases, human caused, potential doom, etc. This was over 60 years ago, folks. The potential for global warming is not new science, we’ve known about this for a very long time. We just chose to ignore it, all for the sake of $$$. Pikes, anyone?
posted by njohnson23 at 10:17 AM on July 19, 2022 [12 favorites]
posted by njohnson23 at 10:17 AM on July 19, 2022 [12 favorites]
It was 41c/105.8f in Paris a couple of hours ago, I have a portable air conditioner but it’s still 25c/77f inside my apartment. We’re not even on red alert for the heatwave, the western coast of France was hotter. And it’s not just Southern Europe that’s on fire, we’ve got horrible wildfires in France at the moment.
In case this helps anyone, some medications can’t be stored above 25c so be careful in heatwaves.
posted by ellieBOA at 10:21 AM on July 19, 2022 [5 favorites]
In case this helps anyone, some medications can’t be stored above 25c so be careful in heatwaves.
posted by ellieBOA at 10:21 AM on July 19, 2022 [5 favorites]
"bag of ice" and "styrofoam coolers" aren't (or weren't) things you could get there.
What? You can absolutely get both of these things in the UK right now if you want to. Even bags of ice, though you'll probably have to search pretty hard to find somewhere with a working freezer that hasn't already sold out. We're not living in the back of beyond, for god's sake.
I'd think the controversy is that the UK seeing over 37C means something is seriously fucking wrong.
There's been lots of talk lately about the heatwave of 1976, when there were 16 consecutive days of temps over 30C. At that time, the average UK summer temperature was only 17C. Let that sink in. In addition, much of our infrastructure as we know it today came into being not long after this time.
A country used to average 17C summers is approaching a state of summers that average 3 or 4 degrees higher than that, with spikes of.. well, today. In the space of less than 50 years. And it's going to snowball on itself as everything else heats up. I dread to think how our vulnerable population is going to cope with the next 5 years, let alone the next 50.
posted by fight or flight at 10:25 AM on July 19, 2022 [10 favorites]
What? You can absolutely get both of these things in the UK right now if you want to. Even bags of ice, though you'll probably have to search pretty hard to find somewhere with a working freezer that hasn't already sold out. We're not living in the back of beyond, for god's sake.
I'd think the controversy is that the UK seeing over 37C means something is seriously fucking wrong.
There's been lots of talk lately about the heatwave of 1976, when there were 16 consecutive days of temps over 30C. At that time, the average UK summer temperature was only 17C. Let that sink in. In addition, much of our infrastructure as we know it today came into being not long after this time.
A country used to average 17C summers is approaching a state of summers that average 3 or 4 degrees higher than that, with spikes of.. well, today. In the space of less than 50 years. And it's going to snowball on itself as everything else heats up. I dread to think how our vulnerable population is going to cope with the next 5 years, let alone the next 50.
posted by fight or flight at 10:25 AM on July 19, 2022 [10 favorites]
A heat wave in your city effects the entire population and is impossible to ignore.
it gets a little easier with air conditioning. Just stay inside all day, maybe pull the blinds.
Unless of course, the power grid fails, either from people not heeding local government directives to keep the AC no lower than 78 degrees, or you know, a hurricane (obviously also a climate change issue).
Anyway, since this thread is quickly becoming a doom scroll (for good reason, no doubt), I want to strongly encourage people to get involved with whatever local activism is happening in their area. At the national-level things do seem impossible, but there has been progress at the more local level - if your locality doesn't already have legislation to force large buildings to dramatically cut emissions, that's a great place to start. Efforts to fight invasive species are also important to promote tree cover and keep cities cool.
Also, since pikes have come up (I agree that more eco-terrorism is inevitable and needed), people may find interesting this re-evaluation of the Earth Liberation Front from the NYTimes. You can also listen to it for free via The Daily podcast (episode aired July 10).
posted by coffeecat at 10:27 AM on July 19, 2022 [8 favorites]
it gets a little easier with air conditioning. Just stay inside all day, maybe pull the blinds.
Unless of course, the power grid fails, either from people not heeding local government directives to keep the AC no lower than 78 degrees, or you know, a hurricane (obviously also a climate change issue).
Anyway, since this thread is quickly becoming a doom scroll (for good reason, no doubt), I want to strongly encourage people to get involved with whatever local activism is happening in their area. At the national-level things do seem impossible, but there has been progress at the more local level - if your locality doesn't already have legislation to force large buildings to dramatically cut emissions, that's a great place to start. Efforts to fight invasive species are also important to promote tree cover and keep cities cool.
Also, since pikes have come up (I agree that more eco-terrorism is inevitable and needed), people may find interesting this re-evaluation of the Earth Liberation Front from the NYTimes. You can also listen to it for free via The Daily podcast (episode aired July 10).
posted by coffeecat at 10:27 AM on July 19, 2022 [8 favorites]
I mean 2C a year is a long way to 40C. I worry a little bit that calling any extreme weather event a direct result of human climate change undermines the Earth really does have a living climate that can experience extremes. Plus in the grand scheme of things we haven't been keeping records that long.
We've been keeping records pretty long. The UK has some of the oldest records in the world; we have daily temperature records going back to the 1770s, and monthly min/max records back to the 1660s. And of course, there's tree rings, ice cores, pollen deposits etc that allow us to calculate climate going back far further. The thing is, we're not getting one-off extremes than come along every every few decades now. We're breaking records faster and faster. The summer of 1976 was a landmark heatwave in the UK, with a high of 35.6 degC that's still talked about today. Now, we break that nearly every summer. The last record was in 2019 at 38.7, which broke the 2003 record of 38.5. Today, we hit 40.2, and there's a distinct possibility there's another area that was even hotter that hasn't reported yet. I think this image comparing June 1976 to June 2022 - not a massive outlier of a year, any more - says a lot.
While the earth has been hotter than this (all that carbon that makes up fossil fuels didn't come out of nowhere!) in the long distant past, the key difference is that those changes a) come about due to some sort of massive forcing event and b) happen over 10s or 100s of thousands of years, c) still result in massive extinction events of a large percentage of life on earth. This time, we're the event, and we're taking the ride back to the Jurassic in less than 100 years, which hardly anything is going to be able to adapt to. And that includes us, even if we manage to keep some kind of food chain going.
Given the emissions we've already made, we've already locked in that very likely millions of people will die ahead of time - water shortages, food shortages, heat exhaustion, refugees, and war. We've been ignoring the warning klaxons up to now, and we're now at the point where without massive and immediate action - not just rapidly ending emissions, but also capturing some of the carbon we've already emitted, AND substantial mitigation preparation for the heating we've already committed to - we're going to commit to killing billions. And that's on us, right now, today. If we don't substantially change course, starting right now, we go from fucked to really, really fucked.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 10:29 AM on July 19, 2022 [32 favorites]
We've been keeping records pretty long. The UK has some of the oldest records in the world; we have daily temperature records going back to the 1770s, and monthly min/max records back to the 1660s. And of course, there's tree rings, ice cores, pollen deposits etc that allow us to calculate climate going back far further. The thing is, we're not getting one-off extremes than come along every every few decades now. We're breaking records faster and faster. The summer of 1976 was a landmark heatwave in the UK, with a high of 35.6 degC that's still talked about today. Now, we break that nearly every summer. The last record was in 2019 at 38.7, which broke the 2003 record of 38.5. Today, we hit 40.2, and there's a distinct possibility there's another area that was even hotter that hasn't reported yet. I think this image comparing June 1976 to June 2022 - not a massive outlier of a year, any more - says a lot.
While the earth has been hotter than this (all that carbon that makes up fossil fuels didn't come out of nowhere!) in the long distant past, the key difference is that those changes a) come about due to some sort of massive forcing event and b) happen over 10s or 100s of thousands of years, c) still result in massive extinction events of a large percentage of life on earth. This time, we're the event, and we're taking the ride back to the Jurassic in less than 100 years, which hardly anything is going to be able to adapt to. And that includes us, even if we manage to keep some kind of food chain going.
Given the emissions we've already made, we've already locked in that very likely millions of people will die ahead of time - water shortages, food shortages, heat exhaustion, refugees, and war. We've been ignoring the warning klaxons up to now, and we're now at the point where without massive and immediate action - not just rapidly ending emissions, but also capturing some of the carbon we've already emitted, AND substantial mitigation preparation for the heating we've already committed to - we're going to commit to killing billions. And that's on us, right now, today. If we don't substantially change course, starting right now, we go from fucked to really, really fucked.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 10:29 AM on July 19, 2022 [32 favorites]
Thank god climate change is a hoax or we might start to have real problems (rolls eyes).
posted by evilDoug at 10:33 AM on July 19, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by evilDoug at 10:33 AM on July 19, 2022 [1 favorite]
I mean 2C a year is a long way to 40C.
The difference in average global temperature between an ice age and non-ice age period is like 6 degrees C. Small-sounding increases in average global temperature mean HUGE impacts in the overall climate.
It seems natural because the effects of climate are natural systems responding -- to demonstrably human activity.
We've been sounding the alarm about this for decades. I took a class in undergrad called Global Climate Change in 1995.
posted by misskaz at 10:34 AM on July 19, 2022 [12 favorites]
The difference in average global temperature between an ice age and non-ice age period is like 6 degrees C. Small-sounding increases in average global temperature mean HUGE impacts in the overall climate.
It seems natural because the effects of climate are natural systems responding -- to demonstrably human activity.
We've been sounding the alarm about this for decades. I took a class in undergrad called Global Climate Change in 1995.
posted by misskaz at 10:34 AM on July 19, 2022 [12 favorites]
Portugal had more than 1,000 deaths from the heat in July (which isn't over yet), with most of them coming from July 7 to July 18, sez CNN Portugal
Via Google: Portugal recorded an excess of mortality between July 7th and 18th, corresponding to 1,063 deaths, attributed to the extreme temperatures that have occurred on the continent in recent days, the Directorate-General for Health (DGS) announced this Monday.
“Between July 7 and 18, 2022, inclusive, excess mortality was observed in Portugal (mainland and islands), corresponding to a total of 1,063 deaths”, the health authority advanced in a statement, noting that these values are provisional and are being updated.
posted by chavenet at 10:34 AM on July 19, 2022 [6 favorites]
Via Google: Portugal recorded an excess of mortality between July 7th and 18th, corresponding to 1,063 deaths, attributed to the extreme temperatures that have occurred on the continent in recent days, the Directorate-General for Health (DGS) announced this Monday.
“Between July 7 and 18, 2022, inclusive, excess mortality was observed in Portugal (mainland and islands), corresponding to a total of 1,063 deaths”, the health authority advanced in a statement, noting that these values are provisional and are being updated.
posted by chavenet at 10:34 AM on July 19, 2022 [6 favorites]
The heat is so much worse than usual in Europe this year that my mother-in-law in Transylvania is willingly using the air conditioner we insisted we get installed for her last year, despite her old Eastern European person worry that it will, I dunno, instantly give her the flu or steal her soul or some shit. She still won't have it on when she's in the room. So when she's super duper hot, she goes and sits on the balcony and waits for the place to cool down. It's supposed to hit 38C this weekend in Cluj. It's topped 40C multiple times already.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 10:36 AM on July 19, 2022 [13 favorites]
posted by DirtyOldTown at 10:36 AM on July 19, 2022 [13 favorites]
It's been 30 to 38 °C (86 to 104 °F) in my house today in the UK. We don't have air con (literally no one I know has one), and our houses just aren't built for these temperatures. It's miserable.
posted by badmoonrising at 10:37 AM on July 19, 2022 [10 favorites]
posted by badmoonrising at 10:37 AM on July 19, 2022 [10 favorites]
Look, environmentally-friendly infrastructure is *nicer* than car-dependent infrastructure. The kind of changes that reduce fossil fuel use in towns and cities are the same things that make towns and cities more pleasant to be in, easier to get around, and more beautiful. Here's a whole youtube channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/NotJustBikes
Induction stoves heat a pot of water in half the time a gas stove does.
Heat pumps save you money and can heat and cool your house. Add some solar panels it's even better.
When I lived in the states the messages about environmentally friendly living seemed to be all about sacrifice, deprivation, and wagging your finger. But perhaps a more effective message is about how nicer life is when all these measures are put in place and better infrastructure is built.
This!
I don't know how we can explain to the spineless politicians in most of the world that changing our cities and infrastructure and homes into something good for the environment is a net positive. There are hundreds of millions of jobs in it, perhaps billions. Our cities and our homes will be more comfortable and more beautiful, the economy will be more sustainable because it won't be owned by a few thousand robber barons. Yes, some things will have to go, but those things are surprisingly often vehicles for the robber barons (Dubai, anyone?)
Add in sustainable food culture, and exactly the same thing will happen in that sector.
I hope we don't need a violent revolution, those always seem to bring their own problems. But we do need to spread the word that things will be better, really.
posted by mumimor at 10:47 AM on July 19, 2022 [29 favorites]
Induction stoves heat a pot of water in half the time a gas stove does.
Heat pumps save you money and can heat and cool your house. Add some solar panels it's even better.
When I lived in the states the messages about environmentally friendly living seemed to be all about sacrifice, deprivation, and wagging your finger. But perhaps a more effective message is about how nicer life is when all these measures are put in place and better infrastructure is built.
This!
I don't know how we can explain to the spineless politicians in most of the world that changing our cities and infrastructure and homes into something good for the environment is a net positive. There are hundreds of millions of jobs in it, perhaps billions. Our cities and our homes will be more comfortable and more beautiful, the economy will be more sustainable because it won't be owned by a few thousand robber barons. Yes, some things will have to go, but those things are surprisingly often vehicles for the robber barons (Dubai, anyone?)
Add in sustainable food culture, and exactly the same thing will happen in that sector.
I hope we don't need a violent revolution, those always seem to bring their own problems. But we do need to spread the word that things will be better, really.
posted by mumimor at 10:47 AM on July 19, 2022 [29 favorites]
The "give me comfort and convenience or give me death" US lifestyle
I don't want to use the link to the "Why don't we have both?" girl, but the urge is strong.
posted by ricochet biscuit at 11:02 AM on July 19, 2022 [3 favorites]
I don't want to use the link to the "Why don't we have both?" girl, but the urge is strong.
posted by ricochet biscuit at 11:02 AM on July 19, 2022 [3 favorites]
Looks like one of Google's European data centers are melting a bit, with all the infrastructure work that goes into those I'll be curious to see what mitigations/responses they have going forward.
There has been a cooling related failure in one of our buildings that hosts zone europe-west2-a for region europe-west2. This caused a partial failure of capacity in that zone, leading to VM terminations and a loss of machines for a small set of our customers. We’re working hard to get the cooling back on-line and create capacity in that zone. We do not anticipate further impact in zone europe-west2-a and currently running VMs should not be impacted. A small percentage of replicated Persistent Disk devices are now running in single redundant mode.posted by CrystalDave at 11:02 AM on July 19, 2022 [5 favorites]
In order to prevent damage to machines and an extended outage, we have powered down part of the zone and are limiting GCE preemptible launches. We are seeing regional impact for a small proportion of newly launched Persistent Disk volumes and are working to restore redundancy for the impacted replicated Persistent Disk devices.
Even where housing stock is newer and much better insulated, it is poorly adapted for hot and sunny days because of insufficient attention paid to solar exposures.
And remember the UK is surprisingly far North. Summer sun is not directly overhead like it is in much of the United States (excluding Alaska). It still shines right in south facing windows at the height of summer. It was great when I was growing cacti and succulents indoors. It was emphatically not great when the outside was 30+C which only happened a few times in the 7 years I lived in Brum.
I live mostly w/out AC in DC, where overnight temperatures routinely hover in the upper 70s - if you are in good health, you can absolutely do this, and its largely a matter of acclimating to it.
I'm going to hazard a guess that you are not in south facing apartment in a tower building with no opportunity for cross-breeze.
posted by srboisvert at 11:06 AM on July 19, 2022 [11 favorites]
And remember the UK is surprisingly far North. Summer sun is not directly overhead like it is in much of the United States (excluding Alaska). It still shines right in south facing windows at the height of summer. It was great when I was growing cacti and succulents indoors. It was emphatically not great when the outside was 30+C which only happened a few times in the 7 years I lived in Brum.
I live mostly w/out AC in DC, where overnight temperatures routinely hover in the upper 70s - if you are in good health, you can absolutely do this, and its largely a matter of acclimating to it.
I'm going to hazard a guess that you are not in south facing apartment in a tower building with no opportunity for cross-breeze.
posted by srboisvert at 11:06 AM on July 19, 2022 [11 favorites]
Is this one of those things where the rich will be fine and make comments wondering why the poor are complaining so much?
posted by clawsoon at 11:08 AM on July 19, 2022 [26 favorites]
posted by clawsoon at 11:08 AM on July 19, 2022 [26 favorites]
This!
I don't know how we can explain to the spineless politicians in most of the world that changing our cities and infrastructure and homes into something good for the environment is a net positive. There are hundreds of millions of jobs in it, perhaps billions. Our cities and our homes will be more comfortable and more beautiful, the economy will be more sustainable because it won't be owned by a few thousand robber barons. Yes, some things will have to go, but those things are surprisingly often vehicles for the robber barons (Dubai, anyone?)
No need to go abroad. I'm up for it just for the possibility of yanking pseudo-president Joe Manchin's tighty-whities up to his armpits and then hooking the elastic waistband on a mothballed coal power-plant smokestack
posted by srboisvert at 11:13 AM on July 19, 2022 [14 favorites]
I don't know how we can explain to the spineless politicians in most of the world that changing our cities and infrastructure and homes into something good for the environment is a net positive. There are hundreds of millions of jobs in it, perhaps billions. Our cities and our homes will be more comfortable and more beautiful, the economy will be more sustainable because it won't be owned by a few thousand robber barons. Yes, some things will have to go, but those things are surprisingly often vehicles for the robber barons (Dubai, anyone?)
No need to go abroad. I'm up for it just for the possibility of yanking pseudo-president Joe Manchin's tighty-whities up to his armpits and then hooking the elastic waistband on a mothballed coal power-plant smokestack
posted by srboisvert at 11:13 AM on July 19, 2022 [14 favorites]
Is this one of those things where the rich will be fine and make comments wondering why the poor are complaining so much?
this is 100% true for some.. but it's like the "high and mighty" Canadians, not sure it's worth living life and assuming the most petty, malicious, nasty motivations behind everything, always. Some of us just lack imagination, or are a bit stupid, and when they call the army in to help Torontonians clear snow we just like to rag on Toronto. I personally harbour no ill will or feelings of superiority for anyone except for when I do, and I'm being a complete asshole. Funny how we can all be that way.
Some of the tips to (try) to stay cool are great, thanks to those of you sharing. Where I live, it's the wildfires. Awful, scary times.. good luck all.
posted by elkevelvet at 11:16 AM on July 19, 2022 [1 favorite]
this is 100% true for some.. but it's like the "high and mighty" Canadians, not sure it's worth living life and assuming the most petty, malicious, nasty motivations behind everything, always. Some of us just lack imagination, or are a bit stupid, and when they call the army in to help Torontonians clear snow we just like to rag on Toronto. I personally harbour no ill will or feelings of superiority for anyone except for when I do, and I'm being a complete asshole. Funny how we can all be that way.
Some of the tips to (try) to stay cool are great, thanks to those of you sharing. Where I live, it's the wildfires. Awful, scary times.. good luck all.
posted by elkevelvet at 11:16 AM on July 19, 2022 [1 favorite]
We've also created a negative feedback loop (probably more than one). Trees remove CO2 from the atmosphere. But warming has increased fires (California has lost 6% of its tree cover since 1985). Fewer trees means more CO2 and more warming. More fires, fewer trees, etc.
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 11:17 AM on July 19, 2022 [7 favorites]
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 11:17 AM on July 19, 2022 [7 favorites]
I absolutely believe in climate change and global warming but the Earth has gone through extreme weather patterns way before we managed to screw up the environment, could we just be going through these patterns?
For people in whose minds this is still a serious question, I would like to suggest gently that your media consumption habits could probably use an overhaul.
The natural variability distraction is the current chart topper in a bunch of bullshit arguments that have been pushed consistently for decades at this point by climate change denial propagandists, exactly because they've been shown to prevent and/or dilute any widespread sense of urgency around how badly we've already fucked our habitat and how hard and fast we need to work to unfuck it.
So if your media of choice are still willing to give a line as repeatedly, consistently and thoroughly debunked as that one a platform, you'd be well advised to inquire seriously into how much other pernicious nonsense they've been selling you for your whole life.
posted by flabdablet at 11:18 AM on July 19, 2022 [47 favorites]
For people in whose minds this is still a serious question, I would like to suggest gently that your media consumption habits could probably use an overhaul.
The natural variability distraction is the current chart topper in a bunch of bullshit arguments that have been pushed consistently for decades at this point by climate change denial propagandists, exactly because they've been shown to prevent and/or dilute any widespread sense of urgency around how badly we've already fucked our habitat and how hard and fast we need to work to unfuck it.
So if your media of choice are still willing to give a line as repeatedly, consistently and thoroughly debunked as that one a platform, you'd be well advised to inquire seriously into how much other pernicious nonsense they've been selling you for your whole life.
posted by flabdablet at 11:18 AM on July 19, 2022 [47 favorites]
We talked about this headline last week when the predicted temp was 43C / 104F, and the daily mail showed a picture of people tanning on the beach to go with the headline. 43C isn't beach weather it's a heat wave that will kill people.
posted by subdee at 11:18 AM on July 19, 2022 [13 favorites]
posted by subdee at 11:18 AM on July 19, 2022 [13 favorites]
There's been lots of talk lately about the heatwave of 1976, when there were 16 consecutive days of temps over 30C. At that time, the average UK summer temperature was only 17C. Let that sink in. In addition, much of our infrastructure as we know it today came into being not long after this time.-- fight or flight
The other thing they are missing is that in 1976, this was a local event. This time it is worldwide.
The Earth is on fire.
posted by eye of newt at 11:20 AM on July 19, 2022 [9 favorites]
The other thing they are missing is that in 1976, this was a local event. This time it is worldwide.
The Earth is on fire.
posted by eye of newt at 11:20 AM on July 19, 2022 [9 favorites]
I'm up for it just for the possibility of yanking pseudo-president Joe Manchin's tighty-whities up to his armpits and then hooking the elastic waistband on a mothballed coal power-plant smokestack
I'd prefer a non-mothballed smokestack or the tip of a 4MW wind generator blade, but I'm not about to let the perfect be the enemy of the good.
posted by flabdablet at 11:23 AM on July 19, 2022 [3 favorites]
I'd prefer a non-mothballed smokestack or the tip of a 4MW wind generator blade, but I'm not about to let the perfect be the enemy of the good.
posted by flabdablet at 11:23 AM on July 19, 2022 [3 favorites]
I wouldn't blame climate scientists for putting out a "we told you so" statement at this point and flipping everyone off before leaving, but they're generally too classy to do that.
This former environmental engineer's take seems to be typical: Someday I'll be dead & my zillions of tweets telling people to build better & different shelters, move vulnerable populations, develop sustainable communities, minimize consumption & births, kill the corps, be kinder, etc. will live on. We had a chance in the '80's to reverse..[1/10]
posted by Lanark at 11:29 AM on July 19, 2022 [13 favorites]
This former environmental engineer's take seems to be typical: Someday I'll be dead & my zillions of tweets telling people to build better & different shelters, move vulnerable populations, develop sustainable communities, minimize consumption & births, kill the corps, be kinder, etc. will live on. We had a chance in the '80's to reverse..[1/10]
posted by Lanark at 11:29 AM on July 19, 2022 [13 favorites]
This is the fourth summer in five years like this in Britain, and there were also comparable summers in 2003 and 2006. That the media’s go to comparison is still 1976 shows that despite creating more news than ever before they somehow fail to pay any attention to any of it themselves.
posted by dng at 11:30 AM on July 19, 2022 [19 favorites]
posted by dng at 11:30 AM on July 19, 2022 [19 favorites]
Natural gas was a completely sound option as a transition fuel for getting off coal and oil in 1976, too. I am frequently dismayed to hear people who are in a position to know better making solemn pronouncements that suggest they truly believe that an expanded gas extraction industry still has any kind of future in that role.
posted by flabdablet at 11:33 AM on July 19, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by flabdablet at 11:33 AM on July 19, 2022 [3 favorites]
Nothing, nothing but empathy for everyone dealing with this from here in the great PNW, where last year my neighborhood hit 115/46.1 and we are similarly unequipped to deal with it because it's historically been cold and wet here. We had massive fallout (just in my own place, I've seen all kinds of stuff that I will have to fix eventually), including the die-off of tons of fledgeling birds. It's brutal, and I hope you are all going to get through this okay on a personal basis. I've been glued to the news about this (my friends are at their Irish home right now, and they have a son with profound disabilities and I'm worried for them), and I'm just keeping my fingers crossed for everyone.
posted by kitten kaboodle at 11:33 AM on July 19, 2022 [17 favorites]
posted by kitten kaboodle at 11:33 AM on July 19, 2022 [17 favorites]
But for one brief shining moment, we created a lot of shareholder value.
posted by briank at 11:33 AM on July 19, 2022 [36 favorites]
posted by briank at 11:33 AM on July 19, 2022 [36 favorites]
If we can't convince the politicians, maybe the military can talk to them. They can't be too happy about being grounded because their runways have melted. (Not to mention the global unrest from drought, immigration, etc. that warming will cause.)
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 11:34 AM on July 19, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 11:34 AM on July 19, 2022 [2 favorites]
A few droplets from the sky here in North London. Relief is at hand.
posted by Ten Cold Hot Dogs at 11:39 AM on July 19, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Ten Cold Hot Dogs at 11:39 AM on July 19, 2022 [1 favorite]
Natural gas was a completely sound option as a transition fuel for getting off coal and oil in 1976, too.
In 1976 we were rapidly decarbonizing electricity c/o the transition to nuclear fission. Then the rabidly anti-nuclear environmentalists acting as useful idiots for the fossil fuel industry saw to the end of that transition. France for instance has almost entirely decarbonized its electricity supply c/o its extensive nuclear rollout back in the '80s.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 11:40 AM on July 19, 2022 [12 favorites]
In 1976 we were rapidly decarbonizing electricity c/o the transition to nuclear fission. Then the rabidly anti-nuclear environmentalists acting as useful idiots for the fossil fuel industry saw to the end of that transition. France for instance has almost entirely decarbonized its electricity supply c/o its extensive nuclear rollout back in the '80s.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 11:40 AM on July 19, 2022 [12 favorites]
I am right at the hottest point, with a lot of south facing windows. However, I installed an air source heat pump to do heating (and as a bonus cooling) so I've been comfortable in a way that no one else round here is. So a decision I made for environmental and economic reasons (reducing my money and carbon cost for heating) has also resulted in comfort benefits. It absolutely mirrors the discussion upthread about how solar panels, heat pumps, public transport, walkable cities with lots of trees and shade just make life nicer, and are better for the environment.
That said, we have a thunderstorm forecast at which point the temperature will drop like a stone (from 40 to 25 in minutes according to the forecast) and I am keenly watching lightning maps so that I can go back outside again.
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 11:50 AM on July 19, 2022 [8 favorites]
That said, we have a thunderstorm forecast at which point the temperature will drop like a stone (from 40 to 25 in minutes according to the forecast) and I am keenly watching lightning maps so that I can go back outside again.
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 11:50 AM on July 19, 2022 [8 favorites]
Arguing about net zero by 2050 is like arguing about a life-boat policy by three weeks after the Titanic sunk.
There is probably a good metaphor to be extracted somewhere about Titanic and lifeboats... Titanic actually had more lifeboats than was required because the relevant regulations had been written fifteen or so years earlier when the biggest liners were nearing 10,000 tons (Titanic was about 45,000 tons), Later post-disaster revisions to augment the lifeboat capacity for larger vessels is thought to have contributed to the Eastland disaster in 1915, when the heavy lifeboat racks rendered the ship top-heavy, leading to it rolling over.
posted by ricochet biscuit at 11:51 AM on July 19, 2022 [4 favorites]
There is probably a good metaphor to be extracted somewhere about Titanic and lifeboats... Titanic actually had more lifeboats than was required because the relevant regulations had been written fifteen or so years earlier when the biggest liners were nearing 10,000 tons (Titanic was about 45,000 tons), Later post-disaster revisions to augment the lifeboat capacity for larger vessels is thought to have contributed to the Eastland disaster in 1915, when the heavy lifeboat racks rendered the ship top-heavy, leading to it rolling over.
posted by ricochet biscuit at 11:51 AM on July 19, 2022 [4 favorites]
Here's a good article from India explaining why we had to close all the railways today and they didn't.
(I expect I'll need a similar article from Canada in 6 months time)
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 11:52 AM on July 19, 2022 [3 favorites]
(I expect I'll need a similar article from Canada in 6 months time)
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 11:52 AM on July 19, 2022 [3 favorites]
Plus in the grand scheme of things we haven't been keeping records that long.
Talk to some geologists.
posted by tiny frying pan at 11:53 AM on July 19, 2022 [14 favorites]
Talk to some geologists.
posted by tiny frying pan at 11:53 AM on July 19, 2022 [14 favorites]
In 1976 we were rapidly decarbonizing electricity c/o the transition to nuclear fission.
And had the world listened to the always entirely non-rabid Amory Lovins and gone with aggressive end-use efficiency upgrades and widespread small-scale natural gas cogeneration instead, we could have avoided somewhere between three and ten times the CO2 emissions for the same investment, made more money, and now be faced with widespread and gradual replacement of relatively non-hazardous end-of-life gas cogenerators instead of needing to sink even more funds into remediating a bunch of huge and hazardous nuclear waste sites where the dead nuclear generators used to be.
Re-litigating 1976, though, is useful only to the extent that it stops us making exactly the same mistake all over again by spending on new gas and new nuclear what absolutely needs to be spent on rapid rollouts of end-use efficiency upgrades, new wind, new solar PV and new sodium-ion batteries instead.
Anybody is welcome to paint me as a useful idiot for holding that view if it makes them feel more important.
posted by flabdablet at 11:59 AM on July 19, 2022 [14 favorites]
And had the world listened to the always entirely non-rabid Amory Lovins and gone with aggressive end-use efficiency upgrades and widespread small-scale natural gas cogeneration instead, we could have avoided somewhere between three and ten times the CO2 emissions for the same investment, made more money, and now be faced with widespread and gradual replacement of relatively non-hazardous end-of-life gas cogenerators instead of needing to sink even more funds into remediating a bunch of huge and hazardous nuclear waste sites where the dead nuclear generators used to be.
Re-litigating 1976, though, is useful only to the extent that it stops us making exactly the same mistake all over again by spending on new gas and new nuclear what absolutely needs to be spent on rapid rollouts of end-use efficiency upgrades, new wind, new solar PV and new sodium-ion batteries instead.
Anybody is welcome to paint me as a useful idiot for holding that view if it makes them feel more important.
posted by flabdablet at 11:59 AM on July 19, 2022 [14 favorites]
Today, solar and wind are the cheapest and most efficient forms of energy, with no competition. If we hadn't protested against nuclear energy back in the seventies and eighties, I doubt all of that R&D would have been invested in sustainable energy.
posted by mumimor at 12:08 PM on July 19, 2022 [14 favorites]
posted by mumimor at 12:08 PM on July 19, 2022 [14 favorites]
We've also created a negative feedback loop (probably more than one)
And the megadrought in the US West is causing hydroelectric dams to generate less power in a time of increasing demand, which we address by turning on natural gas and other fossil fuel power plants.
posted by meowzilla at 12:11 PM on July 19, 2022 [3 favorites]
And the megadrought in the US West is causing hydroelectric dams to generate less power in a time of increasing demand, which we address by turning on natural gas and other fossil fuel power plants.
posted by meowzilla at 12:11 PM on July 19, 2022 [3 favorites]
It just started raining! The Storm is here at last!
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 12:14 PM on July 19, 2022 [7 favorites]
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 12:14 PM on July 19, 2022 [7 favorites]
I absolutely believe in climate change and global warming but the Earth has gone through extreme weather patterns way before we managed to screw up the environment, could we just be going through these patterns?
Oy. Helpful website here: skepticalscience.com and here, and now in app form.
posted by Toddles at 12:23 PM on July 19, 2022 [2 favorites]
Oy. Helpful website here: skepticalscience.com and here, and now in app form.
posted by Toddles at 12:23 PM on July 19, 2022 [2 favorites]
Yesterday we hit 33C in Ireland, a record-setting temperature for July. Luckily our house is old and the walls are two feet of stone so it's been fine with the windows closed, curtains shut and a fan moving air around.
Meanwhile a friend's sister just gave birth in London, and spent 48 hours delivering a baby* on a labour ward that was 36C. The baby probably popped out and was like "neat, its the same temperature out here as it was in there, just without water!"
*An absolute cherub named Nell. Everyone is well!
posted by DarlingBri at 1:13 PM on July 19, 2022 [32 favorites]
Meanwhile a friend's sister just gave birth in London, and spent 48 hours delivering a baby* on a labour ward that was 36C. The baby probably popped out and was like "neat, its the same temperature out here as it was in there, just without water!"
*An absolute cherub named Nell. Everyone is well!
posted by DarlingBri at 1:13 PM on July 19, 2022 [32 favorites]
Yesterday it reached 41.5'C here on the southern edge of the Loire Valley.
I checked weather reports, and at the same moment it was 4 degrees cooler - slightly below the seasonal average for mid-July - in Timbuktu.
The same Timbuktu that's on the southern edge of the Sahara Desert.
posted by protorp at 1:20 PM on July 19, 2022 [6 favorites]
I checked weather reports, and at the same moment it was 4 degrees cooler - slightly below the seasonal average for mid-July - in Timbuktu.
The same Timbuktu that's on the southern edge of the Sahara Desert.
posted by protorp at 1:20 PM on July 19, 2022 [6 favorites]
it's 4:20. everyone must be outside.
posted by clavdivs at 1:21 PM on July 19, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by clavdivs at 1:21 PM on July 19, 2022 [1 favorite]
For folks living through this heat wave: Check on your elderly neighbours, especially if they're low-income, in poor health, or live alone.
Here in BC, we had a heat wave last summer that killed 619 people in one week. Two-thirds of those who died were over 70; most had health problems of some kind, including mental health; they were more likely to live in poorer neighbourhoods; 56% lived alone. Most were in the greater Vancouver area, where our buildings aren't made for 40C+ temperatures (especially when outdoor temps don't drop overnight) and a lot of us don't have AC, just like the UK/Europe. 98% died indoors.
posted by Gerald Bostock at 1:23 PM on July 19, 2022 [14 favorites]
Here in BC, we had a heat wave last summer that killed 619 people in one week. Two-thirds of those who died were over 70; most had health problems of some kind, including mental health; they were more likely to live in poorer neighbourhoods; 56% lived alone. Most were in the greater Vancouver area, where our buildings aren't made for 40C+ temperatures (especially when outdoor temps don't drop overnight) and a lot of us don't have AC, just like the UK/Europe. 98% died indoors.
posted by Gerald Bostock at 1:23 PM on July 19, 2022 [14 favorites]
Today, solar and wind are the cheapest and most efficient forms of energy, with no competition. If we hadn't protested against nuclear energy back in the seventies and eighties, I doubt all of that R&D would have been invested in sustainable energy.
This is one of the major reasons why I've been vocally against more nuclear power. Even fusion.
Because we already have a perfect fusion reactor beaming energy at us by the mega-giga-petawatts, the sun itself.
The capital investment to commission and start even a single traditional and relatively modern fission is absolutely enormous and represents millions and billions of dollars that could be spent building out existing solar chemistries and technologies and investing into research into newer, more efficient chemistries, as well as investing in newer plants and factories to scale and ramp up production and take advantage of larger economies of scale.
Solar has a neat trick in that the more of it you build out the more the return on investment scales up and there's an accumulative snowball effect of there being more energy available to run the plants and research labs that build or manufacture solar and you can use each iteration and advancement as a stepping stone with very little risks of increased or hidden costs. And they're also starting programs to be able to recycle solar panels and make new ones of of recycled materials with better chemistries.
Solar also would have a nice side effect of increasing the albedo index of the planet and reflecting some infrared energy right back into space, even though ideally you want to capture as much radiation as possible and the perfect theoretical solar panel reflects no light at all.
Nuclear has the nasty trick that the more of it you build out the more nuclear waste there is to deal with and the more the true total costs of ownership rise and that's before you even start talking about the real world costs of major incidents or accidents, or proliferating weapons grade fuel.
Sure, one of the major problems with solar and wind is storage and "peaking", being able to deal with spikes in demand.
This is a solvable problem even without storage solutions if we wired up the planet with a planetary scale energy grid where we can share energy with the night time side from the daylit side. Instead of exporting oil or fossil fuels over massive pipelines a given country could be exporting or importing pure electricity.
Sure, running high voltage, high tension power lines under the seas between continents is a huge mega-project, but we already are doing that sort of thing, especially with newer DC-only high voltage lines, and nuclear fission power plants and the inherent waste problems are also huge megaprojects.
In addition to all of these benefits of solar, imagine a world where we didn't fight wars over fossil fuels, or we didn't have the rapidly increasing costs of oil exploration and exploitation, or the environmental and real world health costs of everything involved with all of that and instead we spent the last 30-40 years investing in building out renewable energy like solar, wind and more.
There are so, so many hidden costs to both fossil fuel extraction and use as well as nuclear energy that have been offloaded to the public at large.
As near as I can reckon, the only real reasons why we haven't gone all in on solar and renewable energy are political and economic and more or less comes down to greed. Solar isn't as popular with the shareholders and leadership of vested interests in fossil fuel because it's not as easy to maximize profits.
They know that solar is too easy to decentralize or independently own and cut ties to fossil fuels or centralized nuclear power and cut them right out of their ill-gotten profiteering and they're terrified of losing that golden goose.
For fuck's sake, how many people do we have holding public offices who also are heavily invested in fossil fuels or nuclear power? How many of those greedy bastards have personal skin in this game and sit or have sat on boards of these companies? (Too many. Way, way too many.)
posted by loquacious at 1:55 PM on July 19, 2022 [43 favorites]
This is one of the major reasons why I've been vocally against more nuclear power. Even fusion.
Because we already have a perfect fusion reactor beaming energy at us by the mega-giga-petawatts, the sun itself.
The capital investment to commission and start even a single traditional and relatively modern fission is absolutely enormous and represents millions and billions of dollars that could be spent building out existing solar chemistries and technologies and investing into research into newer, more efficient chemistries, as well as investing in newer plants and factories to scale and ramp up production and take advantage of larger economies of scale.
Solar has a neat trick in that the more of it you build out the more the return on investment scales up and there's an accumulative snowball effect of there being more energy available to run the plants and research labs that build or manufacture solar and you can use each iteration and advancement as a stepping stone with very little risks of increased or hidden costs. And they're also starting programs to be able to recycle solar panels and make new ones of of recycled materials with better chemistries.
Solar also would have a nice side effect of increasing the albedo index of the planet and reflecting some infrared energy right back into space, even though ideally you want to capture as much radiation as possible and the perfect theoretical solar panel reflects no light at all.
Nuclear has the nasty trick that the more of it you build out the more nuclear waste there is to deal with and the more the true total costs of ownership rise and that's before you even start talking about the real world costs of major incidents or accidents, or proliferating weapons grade fuel.
Sure, one of the major problems with solar and wind is storage and "peaking", being able to deal with spikes in demand.
This is a solvable problem even without storage solutions if we wired up the planet with a planetary scale energy grid where we can share energy with the night time side from the daylit side. Instead of exporting oil or fossil fuels over massive pipelines a given country could be exporting or importing pure electricity.
Sure, running high voltage, high tension power lines under the seas between continents is a huge mega-project, but we already are doing that sort of thing, especially with newer DC-only high voltage lines, and nuclear fission power plants and the inherent waste problems are also huge megaprojects.
In addition to all of these benefits of solar, imagine a world where we didn't fight wars over fossil fuels, or we didn't have the rapidly increasing costs of oil exploration and exploitation, or the environmental and real world health costs of everything involved with all of that and instead we spent the last 30-40 years investing in building out renewable energy like solar, wind and more.
There are so, so many hidden costs to both fossil fuel extraction and use as well as nuclear energy that have been offloaded to the public at large.
As near as I can reckon, the only real reasons why we haven't gone all in on solar and renewable energy are political and economic and more or less comes down to greed. Solar isn't as popular with the shareholders and leadership of vested interests in fossil fuel because it's not as easy to maximize profits.
They know that solar is too easy to decentralize or independently own and cut ties to fossil fuels or centralized nuclear power and cut them right out of their ill-gotten profiteering and they're terrified of losing that golden goose.
For fuck's sake, how many people do we have holding public offices who also are heavily invested in fossil fuels or nuclear power? How many of those greedy bastards have personal skin in this game and sit or have sat on boards of these companies? (Too many. Way, way too many.)
posted by loquacious at 1:55 PM on July 19, 2022 [43 favorites]
I feel for the folks in UK/Europe - especially in cities not designed for it - that feeling of unbearable heat bouncing off concrete and mixing with city smells - especially exhaust - ugh. Even though we have our own heat wave going on in Utah I am lucky I can use evaporative cooling most days where I am due to relative low humidity (between 15-35% often in summer) - so a few swamp coolers do the trick most days. Which works fine when 90F+ is the exception. But that dry heat benefit starts to really diminish as temperatures continue to increase well past previous patterns. I’m at about 7000 feet elevation to enjoy snow in winter….but wonder how long it will be before 9k - 10k feet will be necessary to have snowy winters and pleasant summers here in the US. Pretty sure the 80 or so residents of Brian Head, UT don’t want thousands of people trying to move there from northern Utah though.
posted by inflatablekiwi at 2:05 PM on July 19, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by inflatablekiwi at 2:05 PM on July 19, 2022 [2 favorites]
A couple of minor points, not out of real disagreement with any of the other commenters here but in case anyone gets tripped up on the details:
For those of us who live in Fahrenheitland, 40C = 104F, 43C = 109F. I think there was just a typo/brainfart upthread. Not a huge difference in numbers, but there's a very significant difference in comfort and survivability between 104F and 43C. It seems worth mentioning to me because where I live, a few 104F/40C days per year has been normal for some time, but a 109F/43C day would (will) be a pretty big deal. I remember 40C=104F as a mental anchoring point for relating the Celsius and Fahrenheit temperature scales at "hot" levels.
"Negative feedback loop" means a self-stabilizing system. What we've created is positive feedback loops, or self-amplifying systems. Negative feedback is what healthy, not-on-fire forests offer for climate change. It's unfortunate that the term as systems researchers use it is a bit counterintuitive, but that's what it is. You can think of it as negative feedback meaning "do less of what you're doing," and positive feedback as "do more of what you're doing." Noted just in case anyone gets confused reading reporting from climate scientists using those terms in the technical sense.
posted by biogeo at 2:06 PM on July 19, 2022 [21 favorites]
For those of us who live in Fahrenheitland, 40C = 104F, 43C = 109F. I think there was just a typo/brainfart upthread. Not a huge difference in numbers, but there's a very significant difference in comfort and survivability between 104F and 43C. It seems worth mentioning to me because where I live, a few 104F/40C days per year has been normal for some time, but a 109F/43C day would (will) be a pretty big deal. I remember 40C=104F as a mental anchoring point for relating the Celsius and Fahrenheit temperature scales at "hot" levels.
"Negative feedback loop" means a self-stabilizing system. What we've created is positive feedback loops, or self-amplifying systems. Negative feedback is what healthy, not-on-fire forests offer for climate change. It's unfortunate that the term as systems researchers use it is a bit counterintuitive, but that's what it is. You can think of it as negative feedback meaning "do less of what you're doing," and positive feedback as "do more of what you're doing." Noted just in case anyone gets confused reading reporting from climate scientists using those terms in the technical sense.
posted by biogeo at 2:06 PM on July 19, 2022 [21 favorites]
France for instance has almost entirely decarbonized its electricity supply c/o its extensive nuclear rollout back in the '80s.
Fuel from French nuclear company AREVA also helped depopulate and contaminate a chunk of Japan. Climate change is a very serious existential problem and does not need cheerleading for dead-end technologies, be they fossil fuels or nuclear. We already have renewable, cost-effective options that do not poison lands for thousands of years or longer.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 2:09 PM on July 19, 2022 [13 favorites]
Fuel from French nuclear company AREVA also helped depopulate and contaminate a chunk of Japan. Climate change is a very serious existential problem and does not need cheerleading for dead-end technologies, be they fossil fuels or nuclear. We already have renewable, cost-effective options that do not poison lands for thousands of years or longer.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 2:09 PM on July 19, 2022 [13 favorites]
From the BBC last summer: "Opinion: is it okay to enjoy a 600bhp super-SUV when ‘our house is on fire’?"
"Can you honestly drive around in a 17 mile-per-gallon GLE63S – or a Cayenne Turbo GT or Bentley Bentayga Speed or BMW X5 M Competition – listening to a climate news bulletin on the 36-speaker hi-fi and not appreciate the irony? "
Some people are so close to getting it... but not there yet.
posted by happyinmotion at 2:12 PM on July 19, 2022 [3 favorites]
"Can you honestly drive around in a 17 mile-per-gallon GLE63S – or a Cayenne Turbo GT or Bentley Bentayga Speed or BMW X5 M Competition – listening to a climate news bulletin on the 36-speaker hi-fi and not appreciate the irony? "
Some people are so close to getting it... but not there yet.
posted by happyinmotion at 2:12 PM on July 19, 2022 [3 favorites]
I worry a little bit that calling any extreme weather event a direct result of human climate change undermines the Earth really does have a living climate that can experience extremes
Attribution science can absolutely link specific events like this directly to climate change, and can do it quickly (as in the Pacific Northwest heat wave last year, which would have been virtually impossible without climate change.)
posted by pinochiette at 2:12 PM on July 19, 2022 [10 favorites]
Attribution science can absolutely link specific events like this directly to climate change, and can do it quickly (as in the Pacific Northwest heat wave last year, which would have been virtually impossible without climate change.)
posted by pinochiette at 2:12 PM on July 19, 2022 [10 favorites]
planetary scale energy grid where we can share energy
so we're doomed, then
posted by snuffleupagus at 2:16 PM on July 19, 2022 [3 favorites]
so we're doomed, then
posted by snuffleupagus at 2:16 PM on July 19, 2022 [3 favorites]
France for instance has almost entirely decarbonized its electricity supply c/o its extensive nuclear rollout back in the '80s.
I mean, France did what it did and they are where they are, so you certainly wouldn't dismantle it, but advocating building more nuclear now when we know what we know today is insanity. It is only efficient if you completely ignore the cost of waste and cleanup. If you don't, you need to be able to count to the hundreds of billions.
posted by DarlingBri at 2:20 PM on July 19, 2022 [13 favorites]
I mean, France did what it did and they are where they are, so you certainly wouldn't dismantle it, but advocating building more nuclear now when we know what we know today is insanity. It is only efficient if you completely ignore the cost of waste and cleanup. If you don't, you need to be able to count to the hundreds of billions.
posted by DarlingBri at 2:20 PM on July 19, 2022 [13 favorites]
With nuclear power, you get the bonus of the military connection. It isn't sustainable or safe.
posted by theora55 at 2:23 PM on July 19, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by theora55 at 2:23 PM on July 19, 2022 [5 favorites]
I worry a little bit that calling any extreme weather event a direct result of human climate change undermines the Earth really does have a living climate that can experience extremes.
As others have noted, this does dovetail very well with climate change denier talking points, but it's seductive because it's not exactly wrong, at least superficially. I doubt anyone here is a climate change denier (and geoff explicitly disavowed that position), so it's worth interrogating it a bit here amongst friends. I think it's helpful to think about it like this.
Imagine you're playing a gambling game with dice. You're going to throw a handful of them, and if you roll under, say, 20, you win. When you start playing, you're rolling four dice, and you win most of the time. But as you're playing, the house changes the rules of the game. Now in order to play, you have to roll 5 dice, then a bit later 6, then 7. Suddenly you're losing more than you win. You now discover that you can't win, you can't break even, and you can't get out of the game.
On some throw, you roll a 22. Did you lose because of the increasing number of dice, or would you have lost anyway? Obviously you can't know for sure. But you can definitely know for sure that you're much more likely to throw that 22 now that you have to roll 7 dice than you were when you were only rolling 4. And on another throw, you roll a 30. That, you can be sure, would never have happened when you were just rolling 4 dice.
Either way, you're not playing a fair game, and if you have a chance to negotiate or fight with the house in order to change the rules, each of your increasingly-common losing throws should be motivation to do so.
That's the situation we're in. Human activities are increasing the number of metaphorical dice we're rolling. Some extreme weather events are like rolling a 22: yes, they could have happened before, but now they're happening all the damn time. And some of them are like rolling a 30: they're only possible because of anthropogenic climate change. Both of them are evidence that we're in an increasingly bad situation that must be fixed.
posted by biogeo at 2:31 PM on July 19, 2022 [36 favorites]
planetary scale energy grid where we can share energy
so we're doomed, then
What if we said it was a planetary energy market where we can sell energy?
posted by rodlymight at 2:33 PM on July 19, 2022 [5 favorites]
so we're doomed, then
What if we said it was a planetary energy market where we can sell energy?
posted by rodlymight at 2:33 PM on July 19, 2022 [5 favorites]
Also today: NOAA announced a record low in Antarctic sea ice. June 2022 marked the 450th consecutive month with temperatures above the 20th-century average. The ten-warmest Junes on record have all occurred since 2010.
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 2:46 PM on July 19, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 2:46 PM on July 19, 2022 [3 favorites]
As someone who spent a part of my youth without air conditioning, consider setting up a cot in a basement or cellar if you have one. It could be ten or twenty degrees cooler in the basement of the house where I grew up.
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 2:54 PM on July 19, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 2:54 PM on July 19, 2022 [3 favorites]
In addition to the UK, Spain, Portugal, and France, there are also fires in Greece, Morocco, and a bunch of other places worldwide. Sweden is expecting the heat wave to hit here tomorrow, Wednesday, and mostly affect the southern part of the country. We have experienced forest fires before, during heat waves, so that’s a concern.
Partly in response to the heat wave, XR protesters smashed some windows in London today. It’s an interesting story. Hope y’all are keeping cool to the best of your ability. Heat is just the worst.
posted by Bella Donna at 2:55 PM on July 19, 2022
Partly in response to the heat wave, XR protesters smashed some windows in London today. It’s an interesting story. Hope y’all are keeping cool to the best of your ability. Heat is just the worst.
posted by Bella Donna at 2:55 PM on July 19, 2022
Here's a good article from India explaining why we had to close all the railways today and they didn't.
So it's because the Brits assumed that 27°C would be a hot day?
I wonder how expensive it is to re-tension track to deal with higher temperatures.
posted by clawsoon at 3:02 PM on July 19, 2022 [1 favorite]
So it's because the Brits assumed that 27°C would be a hot day?
I wonder how expensive it is to re-tension track to deal with higher temperatures.
posted by clawsoon at 3:02 PM on July 19, 2022 [1 favorite]
We did not learn together. So now we must burn together.
posted by jcworth at 3:04 PM on July 19, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by jcworth at 3:04 PM on July 19, 2022 [4 favorites]
What if we said it was a planetary energy market where we can sell energy?
Then people would piss all over it for being too expensive even if it turns out to be ten times cheaper than business as usual and fifty times cheaper than nukes over its designed service life.
posted by flabdablet at 3:29 PM on July 19, 2022 [1 favorite]
Then people would piss all over it for being too expensive even if it turns out to be ten times cheaper than business as usual and fifty times cheaper than nukes over its designed service life.
posted by flabdablet at 3:29 PM on July 19, 2022 [1 favorite]
Clawson, re rail tracks, normally a maximum expected site temperature is derived, and the rail heated before bolting into place. But this company says the ambient temperature they work off is 30°C.
https://www.networkrail.co.uk/running-the-railway/looking-after-the-railway/delays-explained/buckled-rail-and-summer-heat/
" network rail said it was not practical or cost-effective for it to adopt systems suited to higher temperatures, due to the rarity" from here: https://www.srilankaweekly.co.uk/explainer-sleepers-and-stressed-rails-why-uk-trains-struggle-in-the-heat/
I was taught to spefically design and build for rare events, but yes I know pols and beancounters rebel against reality
posted by unearthed at 3:29 PM on July 19, 2022 [4 favorites]
https://www.networkrail.co.uk/running-the-railway/looking-after-the-railway/delays-explained/buckled-rail-and-summer-heat/
" network rail said it was not practical or cost-effective for it to adopt systems suited to higher temperatures, due to the rarity" from here: https://www.srilankaweekly.co.uk/explainer-sleepers-and-stressed-rails-why-uk-trains-struggle-in-the-heat/
I was taught to spefically design and build for rare events, but yes I know pols and beancounters rebel against reality
posted by unearthed at 3:29 PM on July 19, 2022 [4 favorites]
We shouldn't overlook that climate change is at the heart of the Sri Lanka crisis, which tried to go organic nationwide, had reduced yield that led to the country failing self-sufficiency, and then went back to using crop boosting chemicals just in time for lack of rainfall to lead to a 50% crop yield. And then Ukraine got invaded and two major grain sources either aren't harvesting or can't ship their product...
So, this is a bad situation that is tipping rapidly into something worse than any of us have seen if our lifetimes. And I'm talking within the next 18 months.
posted by hippybear at 3:34 PM on July 19, 2022 [19 favorites]
So, this is a bad situation that is tipping rapidly into something worse than any of us have seen if our lifetimes. And I'm talking within the next 18 months.
posted by hippybear at 3:34 PM on July 19, 2022 [19 favorites]
It's a funny thing, how much pissing and moaning there is about where to find the billions required to stand up a robust worldwide renewable energy infrastructure compared to the leaping, barking enthusiasm for wasting comparable amounts on the nuclear submarines nobody would need if we had it.
posted by flabdablet at 3:35 PM on July 19, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by flabdablet at 3:35 PM on July 19, 2022 [5 favorites]
Clawson, re rail tracks, normally a maximum expected site temperature is derived, and the rail heated before bolting into place. But this company says the ambient temperature they work off is 30°C.
I'm guessing extremes of cold have to be taken into account, too?
posted by clawsoon at 3:36 PM on July 19, 2022 [1 favorite]
I'm guessing extremes of cold have to be taken into account, too?
posted by clawsoon at 3:36 PM on July 19, 2022 [1 favorite]
Pikes, anyone?
It’s forecast to be 120F / 49C in Death Valley, CA on Thursday (which admittedly isn’t even near its all time 134F / 56C high). So maybe time for political fact finding trips. By which I mean selected politicians finding out if they can in fact survive for 24 hours without any support in that inferno.
Or hold the next world expo there outdoors - come explore the exciting world of2070 2060 2050 2040 2035. All of the expo buildings should be replicas of existing “average” homes / buildings from the most climate impacted countries - no modification. G20 leaders are required to attend and stay a week. G7 leaders a month. Or move the United Nations there for a session.
posted by inflatablekiwi at 3:44 PM on July 19, 2022 [11 favorites]
It’s forecast to be 120F / 49C in Death Valley, CA on Thursday (which admittedly isn’t even near its all time 134F / 56C high). So maybe time for political fact finding trips. By which I mean selected politicians finding out if they can in fact survive for 24 hours without any support in that inferno.
Or hold the next world expo there outdoors - come explore the exciting world of
posted by inflatablekiwi at 3:44 PM on July 19, 2022 [11 favorites]
Luckily our house is old and the walls are two feet of stone so it's been fine
I live in Vancouver in a concrete apartment building. In last year's heat wave the stairwells were a source of relief, being surrounded by heavy concrete. Fear kicked in a bit when the heat wave went on long enough that the concrete started getting warm.
posted by justsomebodythatyouusedtoknow at 3:46 PM on July 19, 2022 [9 favorites]
I live in Vancouver in a concrete apartment building. In last year's heat wave the stairwells were a source of relief, being surrounded by heavy concrete. Fear kicked in a bit when the heat wave went on long enough that the concrete started getting warm.
posted by justsomebodythatyouusedtoknow at 3:46 PM on July 19, 2022 [9 favorites]
French Nuclear Cuts Extend to Next Week as Temperatures Soar
Electricite de France SA’s nuclear-output cuts are expected to stretch into next week as a heat wave sweeping across Europe pushes up river temperatures, restricting EDF’s ability to cool its plants.
The French utility said that two power stations on the Rhone River will produce less electricity in the coming days, adding to cutbacks at another plant caused by rising temperatures on the Garonne.
The restrictions threaten to push power prices -- already at eye-watering levels -- even higher, with the effects rippling out to other European markets. The region is suffering its worst energy crunch in decades as supply concerns drive a surge in the cost of natural gas.
Under French rules, EDF must reduce or halt nuclear output when river temperatures reach certain thresholds to ensure that the water used to cool the plants won’t harm the environment when put back into the waterways.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 4:03 PM on July 19, 2022 [7 favorites]
Electricite de France SA’s nuclear-output cuts are expected to stretch into next week as a heat wave sweeping across Europe pushes up river temperatures, restricting EDF’s ability to cool its plants.
The French utility said that two power stations on the Rhone River will produce less electricity in the coming days, adding to cutbacks at another plant caused by rising temperatures on the Garonne.
The restrictions threaten to push power prices -- already at eye-watering levels -- even higher, with the effects rippling out to other European markets. The region is suffering its worst energy crunch in decades as supply concerns drive a surge in the cost of natural gas.
Under French rules, EDF must reduce or halt nuclear output when river temperatures reach certain thresholds to ensure that the water used to cool the plants won’t harm the environment when put back into the waterways.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 4:03 PM on July 19, 2022 [7 favorites]
UPS Driver Collapses at Front Door From Severe Heat Arizona. (Inside Edition on YouTube)
posted by Glinn at 4:33 PM on July 19, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Glinn at 4:33 PM on July 19, 2022 [1 favorite]
Ugh, that poor UPS driver. I've been putting a cooler full of ice and bottled water out every day, and the mail carriers & package delivery (and dog walkers!) have been very thankful. Small kindnesses can make a big difference.
posted by xedrik at 4:51 PM on July 19, 2022 [10 favorites]
posted by xedrik at 4:51 PM on July 19, 2022 [10 favorites]
The closing sentence of the horrifying video you posted Glinn, “and perhaps our future”. Media and journalists still cannot go there. Not only is it certainly the future, it is definitely the present!
posted by tarantula at 4:52 PM on July 19, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by tarantula at 4:52 PM on July 19, 2022 [4 favorites]
needs to be spent on rapid rollouts of end-use efficiency upgrades, new wind, new solar PV and new sodium-ion batteries instead.
We're already building solar panels and wind turbines as fast as we can. New factories are coming on line all the time. The problem is that we started a decade too late. Similarly, at least in the US and other developed economies, energy efficiency upgrades have drastically reduced the energy consumption of nearly every home appliance people have in their houses over the past 30 years. The problem there is that much of the gains have been eaten up by larger homes, larger vehicles, and population growth.
It's not that these are bad ideas, it's just that they aren't new ideas. We're already doing them, and not in a half-assed way. AC units are twice as efficient as they were 30 years ago. Natural gas heaters have gone from less than 60% efficiency to a minimum over 80% and the newest models over 95%. There is so little heat left in the exhaust that extraction fans are required to maintain a draft. Utility companies across much of the US will pay you cash money to replace your old AC, refrigerator, and subsidize the cost of LED bulbs sold at retail. The gas company will pay you cash money to replace your old furnace or hot water heater. The federal government has spent billions upon billions subsidizing the cost of improved insulation and other upgrades to make homes more energy efficient.
Despite all that, it's still not enough. Even if we somehow woke up tomorrow with a completely decarbonized electric grid and a massive excess of renewable energy by being overbuilt to the point that we never had to burn fossil fuels for energy again, it's still not enough to run enough CCS to reverse the effects of climate change. Even if we were to somehow again double energy efficiency, it's still not enough to provide enough energy to allow less advantaged countries to reach economic parity with the developed economies.
I don't have answers, all I can say is that anyone who is confident they know exactly in which basket our eggs should be placed is deluding themselves. Maybe it would be different if we had taken this shit as seriously as we should have 40 years ago, but we didn't. We are where we are. I'm definitely not going to complain about keeping zero emission nighttime baseload capacity in the form of nuclear plants up and running until such time as we have sufficient wind and battery storage.
posted by wierdo at 4:57 PM on July 19, 2022 [15 favorites]
We're already building solar panels and wind turbines as fast as we can. New factories are coming on line all the time. The problem is that we started a decade too late. Similarly, at least in the US and other developed economies, energy efficiency upgrades have drastically reduced the energy consumption of nearly every home appliance people have in their houses over the past 30 years. The problem there is that much of the gains have been eaten up by larger homes, larger vehicles, and population growth.
It's not that these are bad ideas, it's just that they aren't new ideas. We're already doing them, and not in a half-assed way. AC units are twice as efficient as they were 30 years ago. Natural gas heaters have gone from less than 60% efficiency to a minimum over 80% and the newest models over 95%. There is so little heat left in the exhaust that extraction fans are required to maintain a draft. Utility companies across much of the US will pay you cash money to replace your old AC, refrigerator, and subsidize the cost of LED bulbs sold at retail. The gas company will pay you cash money to replace your old furnace or hot water heater. The federal government has spent billions upon billions subsidizing the cost of improved insulation and other upgrades to make homes more energy efficient.
Despite all that, it's still not enough. Even if we somehow woke up tomorrow with a completely decarbonized electric grid and a massive excess of renewable energy by being overbuilt to the point that we never had to burn fossil fuels for energy again, it's still not enough to run enough CCS to reverse the effects of climate change. Even if we were to somehow again double energy efficiency, it's still not enough to provide enough energy to allow less advantaged countries to reach economic parity with the developed economies.
I don't have answers, all I can say is that anyone who is confident they know exactly in which basket our eggs should be placed is deluding themselves. Maybe it would be different if we had taken this shit as seriously as we should have 40 years ago, but we didn't. We are where we are. I'm definitely not going to complain about keeping zero emission nighttime baseload capacity in the form of nuclear plants up and running until such time as we have sufficient wind and battery storage.
posted by wierdo at 4:57 PM on July 19, 2022 [15 favorites]
If you are interested in a fictional take on this, see The Ministry for the Future by Kim Stanley Robinson
Warning: the book starts out with some very realisitc events which are rhyming with what's going on now (heat wave + mass death).
However, I found it (ultimately) to be an optimistic take on how we might get out of this mess.
posted by soylent00FF00 at 5:15 PM on July 19, 2022 [4 favorites]
Warning: the book starts out with some very realisitc events which are rhyming with what's going on now (heat wave + mass death).
However, I found it (ultimately) to be an optimistic take on how we might get out of this mess.
posted by soylent00FF00 at 5:15 PM on July 19, 2022 [4 favorites]
When I lived in the states the messages about environmentally friendly living seemed to be all about sacrifice, deprivation, and wagging your finger. But perhaps a more effective message is about how nicer life is when all these measures are put in place and better infrastructure is built.
Yeah, it seems pretty clear that climate doomerism doesn't persuade most people to work for major systemic change. And it sends other people into mental health crises.
Championing the solutions that do work, and that are actually appealing in and of themselves, is probably the most effective way forward.
posted by Artifice_Eternity at 5:17 PM on July 19, 2022 [8 favorites]
Yeah, it seems pretty clear that climate doomerism doesn't persuade most people to work for major systemic change. And it sends other people into mental health crises.
Championing the solutions that do work, and that are actually appealing in and of themselves, is probably the most effective way forward.
posted by Artifice_Eternity at 5:17 PM on July 19, 2022 [8 favorites]
If we hadn't protested against nuclear energy back in the seventies and eighties, I doubt all of that R&D would have been invested in sustainable energy. Thanks, muminor, I feel smug now, pretty sure that's cooling.
posted by theora55 at 5:54 PM on July 19, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by theora55 at 5:54 PM on July 19, 2022 [5 favorites]
I could have condensed my comment to one simple observation: We drastically underestimate the sheer scale of the problem.
We're trying to replace a hundred years of infrastructure in a very short period of time. There's so much of it out there that nearly unprecedented scaling looks like we aren't doing jack shit.
posted by wierdo at 6:25 PM on July 19, 2022 [2 favorites]
We're trying to replace a hundred years of infrastructure in a very short period of time. There's so much of it out there that nearly unprecedented scaling looks like we aren't doing jack shit.
posted by wierdo at 6:25 PM on July 19, 2022 [2 favorites]
until such time as we have sufficient wind and battery storage.
I suspect we won't really need much storage at all. A few points
1. Daytime usage is roughly double nighttime usage. Wind provides baseload, solar provides the additional day load, with morning / evening peaks handled by hydro release. Midday oversupply of energy diverted to pumped hydro, same for any oversupply at night.
2. Costs of solar have been dropping rapidly each year. Wind at a slower rate.
First thing to acknowledge is that no power generation has 100% uptime. Our most notable power outages have been when a coal power unit had to unexpectedly go offline for repairs due to a fault. Same for gas supply, when a refinery blew up due to an industrial accident.
You want renewables + hydro peakers to supply sufficient power 99.99% of that time? That's mathematically possible by looking at weather patterns, and building wind farms and solar farms across a geographically distributed area - literally thousands of miles apart on a single national grid. No different to rating the reliability of coal powerplants to 99.99% uptime.
Basically, solar is going to get so cheap it's better to overbuild solar capacity so even on mostly cloudy days there's always some solar in the country generating, rather than building "just enough" solar and storing energy in batteries for when it's cloudy.
posted by xdvesper at 7:26 PM on July 19, 2022 [11 favorites]
I suspect we won't really need much storage at all. A few points
1. Daytime usage is roughly double nighttime usage. Wind provides baseload, solar provides the additional day load, with morning / evening peaks handled by hydro release. Midday oversupply of energy diverted to pumped hydro, same for any oversupply at night.
2. Costs of solar have been dropping rapidly each year. Wind at a slower rate.
First thing to acknowledge is that no power generation has 100% uptime. Our most notable power outages have been when a coal power unit had to unexpectedly go offline for repairs due to a fault. Same for gas supply, when a refinery blew up due to an industrial accident.
You want renewables + hydro peakers to supply sufficient power 99.99% of that time? That's mathematically possible by looking at weather patterns, and building wind farms and solar farms across a geographically distributed area - literally thousands of miles apart on a single national grid. No different to rating the reliability of coal powerplants to 99.99% uptime.
Basically, solar is going to get so cheap it's better to overbuild solar capacity so even on mostly cloudy days there's always some solar in the country generating, rather than building "just enough" solar and storing energy in batteries for when it's cloudy.
posted by xdvesper at 7:26 PM on July 19, 2022 [11 favorites]
We're already building solar panels and wind turbines as fast as we can.
I'm not sure where you are, but at least here this is not true. Or rather, it's true in the sense that things are getting built as fast as possible given significant resistance from local, state, and federal permitting processes, import limitations, regulatory resistance from existing utilities, and on and on -- collectively, those barriers provide a serious brake on the development of renewables. If this was a genuine priority, an awful lot more would be getting built, very quickly.
posted by Dip Flash at 7:51 PM on July 19, 2022 [12 favorites]
I'm not sure where you are, but at least here this is not true. Or rather, it's true in the sense that things are getting built as fast as possible given significant resistance from local, state, and federal permitting processes, import limitations, regulatory resistance from existing utilities, and on and on -- collectively, those barriers provide a serious brake on the development of renewables. If this was a genuine priority, an awful lot more would be getting built, very quickly.
posted by Dip Flash at 7:51 PM on July 19, 2022 [12 favorites]
If the government won’t ban it, we should be destroying fossil fuel infrastructure ourselves. Its a pretty clear case of self-defense. Also, the system is fragile - I don’t think it would take that many people willing to take a risk to make the whole industry unprofitable.
posted by Salvor Hardin at 8:01 PM on July 19, 2022 [7 favorites]
posted by Salvor Hardin at 8:01 PM on July 19, 2022 [7 favorites]
The only way we survive the century is if green energy becomes so cheap and convenient that the market for fossil fuels is too weak to support extraction. It shouldn’t have to be that. More people should have a conscience and support leaders who will mandate decarbonization in policy. And leaders who can lead in that direction should have the courage to do so. And governments should be proportionally representative to obey the majority of people who want to do more. But this is the world we’re in.
posted by condour75 at 8:04 PM on July 19, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by condour75 at 8:04 PM on July 19, 2022 [2 favorites]
I support the sentiment behind this monkeywrenching idea, but part of doing that is being willing to put up with the subsequent economic shocks that will happen from a sudden breaking of the main fuel of our economy.
It may be that something like this needs to happen. I'd rather the government get really fierce about it and absorb the consequences as an entire society, and work fucking HARD to sell it to the populace who will have to deal with the shock. We did it with economic conversion and rationing in WWII. We need to do it now.
posted by hippybear at 8:05 PM on July 19, 2022 [1 favorite]
It may be that something like this needs to happen. I'd rather the government get really fierce about it and absorb the consequences as an entire society, and work fucking HARD to sell it to the populace who will have to deal with the shock. We did it with economic conversion and rationing in WWII. We need to do it now.
posted by hippybear at 8:05 PM on July 19, 2022 [1 favorite]
If this was a genuine priority, an awful lot more would be getting built, very quickly.
What I mean is that there isn't a significant excess in production capacity and more is constantly being built. You could remove every regulatory constraint and it wouldn't make any appreciable difference in the rate of solar adoption. Billions upon billions of dollars are spent every year building new plants to manufacture cells and put those cells into panels precisely because investors are keenly aware that demand will only be increasing for a long time to come. Still, supply can only be increased so fast, at least if you want panels that actually work and don't fail after a year or two.
Wind turbine construction is similarly supply constrained. It ain't easy to build blades that are hundreds of feet long. The power electronics don't come out of nowhere, either. You may have noticed that it's still pretty hard to come by even common parts at the moment and it's not from a lack of trying by the manufacturers. We were running on the ragged edge of the supply chain despite continuous investment in capacity before the pandemic, which is one reason why it has taken so long to catch up despite most of the world having basically given up on controlling COVID in any meaningful way.
In both cases, increasing the total capacity isn't just a matter of hiring more people. Producing these things requires highly specialized equipment that in many cases is only made by a very few companies around the world. Transferring the knowledge to spread the capacity to build the tools to make the stuff literally takes decades. We aren't talking about cogs that can be made in any machine shop here.
And that doesn't even get into the issues of producing more of the raw materials at the base of the pyramid.
Could we do more? Almost certainly. But not that much more without literally going back in time. We don't need more government spending on renewables. They're winning by a wide margin already. We need governments to encourage transmission upgrades, CCS, technology to reduce ocean acidification so that we don't lose the base of the food chain, technologies to reduce the amount of shit we have to burn to make steel and other materials, and moonshots that will hopefully provide the power to run CCS in a timeframe that actually matters.
posted by wierdo at 9:28 PM on July 19, 2022 [3 favorites]
What I mean is that there isn't a significant excess in production capacity and more is constantly being built. You could remove every regulatory constraint and it wouldn't make any appreciable difference in the rate of solar adoption. Billions upon billions of dollars are spent every year building new plants to manufacture cells and put those cells into panels precisely because investors are keenly aware that demand will only be increasing for a long time to come. Still, supply can only be increased so fast, at least if you want panels that actually work and don't fail after a year or two.
Wind turbine construction is similarly supply constrained. It ain't easy to build blades that are hundreds of feet long. The power electronics don't come out of nowhere, either. You may have noticed that it's still pretty hard to come by even common parts at the moment and it's not from a lack of trying by the manufacturers. We were running on the ragged edge of the supply chain despite continuous investment in capacity before the pandemic, which is one reason why it has taken so long to catch up despite most of the world having basically given up on controlling COVID in any meaningful way.
In both cases, increasing the total capacity isn't just a matter of hiring more people. Producing these things requires highly specialized equipment that in many cases is only made by a very few companies around the world. Transferring the knowledge to spread the capacity to build the tools to make the stuff literally takes decades. We aren't talking about cogs that can be made in any machine shop here.
And that doesn't even get into the issues of producing more of the raw materials at the base of the pyramid.
Could we do more? Almost certainly. But not that much more without literally going back in time. We don't need more government spending on renewables. They're winning by a wide margin already. We need governments to encourage transmission upgrades, CCS, technology to reduce ocean acidification so that we don't lose the base of the food chain, technologies to reduce the amount of shit we have to burn to make steel and other materials, and moonshots that will hopefully provide the power to run CCS in a timeframe that actually matters.
posted by wierdo at 9:28 PM on July 19, 2022 [3 favorites]
We're already building solar panels and wind turbines as fast as we can.70% of PV is produced in China. The US, with 1/4th of its population, produces only 3%.
posted by joeyh at 10:05 PM on July 19, 2022 [4 favorites]
Just a couple of weeks ago I was in Nebraska visiting my wife's family. I know some of you here live in Nebraska or its neighboring states, and let me reassure you that I don't intend any disrespect of the prairie states, but as a visitor I noticed a few things. We drove all the way across the state, from west to east, and a couple of things struck me during the drive. First, which is always what strikes me when driving any distance in the part of the country between the Mississippi River and the Rockies, is just how vast and empty the middle of the continent is. The eastern part of the state has plenty of farmland, to be sure, but for something like three quarters of our drive, we were driving through nearly empty landscape, with tiny little towns populated with a couple hundred people each separated by 45 minutes of driving through ranchland.
The other thing that struck me is there are no wind turbines in Nebraska. That is not literally true, of course; wind makes up something like 20% of the energy generation in the state, and the share is steadily rising. But when talking to prairie folk about how they see the land they live in, the element that seems most to govern their lives is the wind. Just during a short visit, I heard multiple stories about how the incessant wind of the prairies used to drive farm wives mad, both from people who live in the urban centers of Lincoln and Omaha as well as from people who live in the rural and remote western part of the state. It seems like the wind is a big part of the regional identity. And yet, while I see highly visible wind turbine projects in less suitable places like western Pennsylvania and West Virginia, this massive, renewable natural resource that would be perfectly compatible to use along with the vast open ranchlands in the middle of Nebraska is almost completely untapped. I think I did finally see a couple of turbines as we approached Lincoln, but I was actually kind of shocked at the complete absence of wind farms along our drive.
I was so surprised I did a little Googling to try to find out why there are so many fewer wind farms in the state. One relevant item was the Inside Climate News story I linked above, from 2020 and not necessarily reflecting the pandemic-era supply chain challenges to new construction. That story includes this:
And to further support the connection, I found this bit of unmitigated bullshit in Forbes, which I link not because I think the arguments have any value but because I think it provides some insight into a certain mindset. This piece celebrates the rejection of a plan to build a wind farm in Nebraska, and while it includes a lot of knee-slappers (including the claim that rural Americans
Anyway, my takeaway from this is that it's not as simple as the people versus the big evil corporations. Yes, some of the Nebraskans who have opposed the transition to wind power (which should be a money-making export for their state) probably did so because they've been misled by shills for the big evil corporations, but they were receptive to those messages out of ignorance, fear of change, and maybe most importantly a resentment, distrust, or even hatred of people they see as "other," including, and perhaps most especially, coastal "elite" liberals. And while the author of that Forbes piece was pretty transparent in trying to construct a bogeyman out of "Big Wind," he's also not wrong that the corporations looking to install wind farms are operating within the same capitalist system that generally finds ways to extract value by screwing over individuals, and it's rational for people to be cautious or skeptical of for-profit endeavors to install wind farms in their state. I wish I had a better answer, but within capitalism I fear there are no good ones.
posted by biogeo at 10:12 PM on July 19, 2022 [14 favorites]
The other thing that struck me is there are no wind turbines in Nebraska. That is not literally true, of course; wind makes up something like 20% of the energy generation in the state, and the share is steadily rising. But when talking to prairie folk about how they see the land they live in, the element that seems most to govern their lives is the wind. Just during a short visit, I heard multiple stories about how the incessant wind of the prairies used to drive farm wives mad, both from people who live in the urban centers of Lincoln and Omaha as well as from people who live in the rural and remote western part of the state. It seems like the wind is a big part of the regional identity. And yet, while I see highly visible wind turbine projects in less suitable places like western Pennsylvania and West Virginia, this massive, renewable natural resource that would be perfectly compatible to use along with the vast open ranchlands in the middle of Nebraska is almost completely untapped. I think I did finally see a couple of turbines as we approached Lincoln, but I was actually kind of shocked at the complete absence of wind farms along our drive.
I was so surprised I did a little Googling to try to find out why there are so many fewer wind farms in the state. One relevant item was the Inside Climate News story I linked above, from 2020 and not necessarily reflecting the pandemic-era supply chain challenges to new construction. That story includes this:
Unlike any other state, utilities in Nebraska are owned by their customers or local governments, largely the result of legislation in the 1930s that encouraged government ownership of utilities. By the end of the 1940s, the last investor-owned utilities had sold their assets or restructured. That is different from most states, where investor-owned utilities like Duke Energy serve a majority of customers.(My emphasis.) On the one hand, local ownership of energy utilities seems like a great idea, and is something I always advocate for. On the other hand, the fact of local ownership combined with another observation I made while traversing the state may explain things: while I saw no wind farms, I saw at least a dozen or so large signs or flags, proudly displayed on ranches in the middle of nowhere, reading either "TRUMP" or "FUCK BIDEN." One memorable billboard (presumably one that someone is still paying the advertising money to keep up) read "Trump 2020: Make a Liberal Cry Again."
Government ownership of utilities has had many benefits, but one of the drawbacks is that people who run the companies are often cautious about embracing new technologies, and reluctant to close old power plants, said Lu Nelson, policy associate for the Center for Rural Affairs, a Nebraska-based organization that works to improve the economy and quality of life in rural America.
Nebraska was slow to develop wind energy compared to some of its neighbors, even though the state has some of the strongest wind resources in the country.
And to further support the connection, I found this bit of unmitigated bullshit in Forbes, which I link not because I think the arguments have any value but because I think it provides some insight into a certain mindset. This piece celebrates the rejection of a plan to build a wind farm in Nebraska, and while it includes a lot of knee-slappers (including the claim that rural Americans
don’t want wind turbines in their neighborhoods: they don’t want to endure the noise pollution from the giant machines. Further, they are rightly concerned about the erosion of their property values and the destruction of their viewsheds by forests of 600-foot-high wind turbines,which is something that could only be written by someone who's never spent eight hours driving across Nebraska), it's useful to understand some of the pull quotes he chooses from Nebraskans explaining their opposition to wind farms. I'll also note that the author of the piece appears to be a nuclear industry shill, and while I personally believe that the future of carbon-free energy production should include some portion of nuclear power, every argument in that piece is dishonest bullshit, and coming away from the article with a feeling of greater hostility to nuclear power is the correct response to such obvious shilling.
Anyway, my takeaway from this is that it's not as simple as the people versus the big evil corporations. Yes, some of the Nebraskans who have opposed the transition to wind power (which should be a money-making export for their state) probably did so because they've been misled by shills for the big evil corporations, but they were receptive to those messages out of ignorance, fear of change, and maybe most importantly a resentment, distrust, or even hatred of people they see as "other," including, and perhaps most especially, coastal "elite" liberals. And while the author of that Forbes piece was pretty transparent in trying to construct a bogeyman out of "Big Wind," he's also not wrong that the corporations looking to install wind farms are operating within the same capitalist system that generally finds ways to extract value by screwing over individuals, and it's rational for people to be cautious or skeptical of for-profit endeavors to install wind farms in their state. I wish I had a better answer, but within capitalism I fear there are no good ones.
posted by biogeo at 10:12 PM on July 19, 2022 [14 favorites]
79° is a summer Texas overnight temperature
It was 86F/30C in Brooklyn at 1 a.m. The heat index was 88F/31C, 'cause the humidity was hovering around 57%. The high temperature is pretty much going to be in the 90s/30s for the next 10 days, and maybe beyond. All of which is to say: I have great sympathy for what folks are enduring around the world right now.
Someone may have already touched on this, but for the sake of everyone's sanity and survival we need to take a hint from how hot places operate and start doing things like shifting summer hours to give people a break mid-day and generally give people more leeway to take it easy. I feel like, in many places, people have been expected to keep their regular hours and be just as productive as they would otherwise and that is a terrible idea. Bodies don't work like that, and maintaining the fiction of business-as-usual comes with all kinds of unnecessary costs in terms of mid-day energy use.
I grew up without a/c at home or in school, but part of the reason that worked is that people were accustomed to slowing down on sweltering days. As a/c proliferated, so too did the idea that we can simply carry on rather than adjusting our behavior to meet the circumstances we're faced with, and it would be great if we could dial that back.
I'm also struck by just how different people's experience of deadly heat can be based on their circumstances: what color their roof is, whether they have cross-ventilation, how thick their walls and curtains are, whether there's a shade tree outside their window, what direction that window is facing, etc. Two people sitting in their homes on the same street can be enduring entirely different things, which can make it hard for people to have an intuitive sense of just what other people are going through.
posted by evidenceofabsence at 11:14 PM on July 19, 2022 [8 favorites]
It was 86F/30C in Brooklyn at 1 a.m. The heat index was 88F/31C, 'cause the humidity was hovering around 57%. The high temperature is pretty much going to be in the 90s/30s for the next 10 days, and maybe beyond. All of which is to say: I have great sympathy for what folks are enduring around the world right now.
Someone may have already touched on this, but for the sake of everyone's sanity and survival we need to take a hint from how hot places operate and start doing things like shifting summer hours to give people a break mid-day and generally give people more leeway to take it easy. I feel like, in many places, people have been expected to keep their regular hours and be just as productive as they would otherwise and that is a terrible idea. Bodies don't work like that, and maintaining the fiction of business-as-usual comes with all kinds of unnecessary costs in terms of mid-day energy use.
I grew up without a/c at home or in school, but part of the reason that worked is that people were accustomed to slowing down on sweltering days. As a/c proliferated, so too did the idea that we can simply carry on rather than adjusting our behavior to meet the circumstances we're faced with, and it would be great if we could dial that back.
I'm also struck by just how different people's experience of deadly heat can be based on their circumstances: what color their roof is, whether they have cross-ventilation, how thick their walls and curtains are, whether there's a shade tree outside their window, what direction that window is facing, etc. Two people sitting in their homes on the same street can be enduring entirely different things, which can make it hard for people to have an intuitive sense of just what other people are going through.
posted by evidenceofabsence at 11:14 PM on July 19, 2022 [8 favorites]
To those weathering this heatwave, I'm sorry we didnt do more.
Wet bulb 31 (or 35) isnt the start of dying, that is when dying reaches 100%. We steer toward this limit with complacency like the moth to the flame.
This summer may average the hottest it has been, but it will average the coolest it will be. (+/- a few years for variablility).
Greed, competition, hubris, short-termism, industrial disregard for nature.... we murdered our life-support system and so many people and other species along the way to this.
There us an old joke about a window washer who falls from the 50th floor building and on the way down he remarks to an office worker on the 3rd that so far, the fall isnt so bad and what was all the fuss about.
We are at floor 40 and falling, and the techno-dellusionists think they can invent wings and the hopium dealers think they can persuade the military industrial complex to forgoe its high performance fuels, and the scientists think they can education the elected/corrupted leaders.... and meanwhile emissions are growing, and atmospheric GHG is accerlating.
Rage against the dying of the light. The rest of my advice is forbidden.
posted by anecdotal_grand_theory at 12:23 AM on July 20, 2022 [7 favorites]
Wet bulb 31 (or 35) isnt the start of dying, that is when dying reaches 100%. We steer toward this limit with complacency like the moth to the flame.
This summer may average the hottest it has been, but it will average the coolest it will be. (+/- a few years for variablility).
Greed, competition, hubris, short-termism, industrial disregard for nature.... we murdered our life-support system and so many people and other species along the way to this.
There us an old joke about a window washer who falls from the 50th floor building and on the way down he remarks to an office worker on the 3rd that so far, the fall isnt so bad and what was all the fuss about.
We are at floor 40 and falling, and the techno-dellusionists think they can invent wings and the hopium dealers think they can persuade the military industrial complex to forgoe its high performance fuels, and the scientists think they can education the elected/corrupted leaders.... and meanwhile emissions are growing, and atmospheric GHG is accerlating.
Rage against the dying of the light. The rest of my advice is forbidden.
posted by anecdotal_grand_theory at 12:23 AM on July 20, 2022 [7 favorites]
Ah yes, the sweet smell of climate doomerism! I understand the impulse, but it is not particularly helpful. Because it makes people give up and do nothing. So perhaps, it might not be a good idea to indulge in this, because we're all trying not to lose our minds in this awful time. Let's be kind to each other, especially on Metafilter.
posted by suburbanbeatnik at 1:23 AM on July 20, 2022 [20 favorites]
posted by suburbanbeatnik at 1:23 AM on July 20, 2022 [20 favorites]
Speaking of the military-industrial complex, let me remind you that within the living memories of some (old) folks, the global economy was completely changed in less than five years, during WWII, when the US first built a huge arms industry to arm Europe, and then entered the war itself. Though far too many of those capacities continue to churn out killing machines, a lot of the innovation and productivity achievements were put to use in building the richest nation the world has every seen, and spreading that knowledge and welfare to other places like Western Europe, Japan and South Korea so that by the sixties, many hundreds of millions of people had vastly improved lives.
We all just need to do the same, but for the climate, and we can do it, if we want to. I guess we need someone like FDR, though, to set and stay the course.
In the EU, the last EUP election was a climate election, and the heatwave is reminding some people who were getting a bit flaky about our goals that this is not fine. A squabbling group of 27 independent states is not the best at world leadership. But who knows, maybe Ms von der Leyen will just have to pick up the baton.
posted by mumimor at 1:57 AM on July 20, 2022 [4 favorites]
We all just need to do the same, but for the climate, and we can do it, if we want to. I guess we need someone like FDR, though, to set and stay the course.
In the EU, the last EUP election was a climate election, and the heatwave is reminding some people who were getting a bit flaky about our goals that this is not fine. A squabbling group of 27 independent states is not the best at world leadership. But who knows, maybe Ms von der Leyen will just have to pick up the baton.
posted by mumimor at 1:57 AM on July 20, 2022 [4 favorites]
70% of PV is produced in China. The US, with 1/4th of its population, produces only 3%
Yes, economics are a bitch. Happily, as demand outstrips the ability for China to produce a sufficient quantity of cells and panels, investment in production capacity elsewhere is increasing, including in the US, where several new plants are being built as I write this.
Personally, I don't buy into the doom. Ten years ago I did, but since then the price of renewable energy has dropped to the point where only existing nuclear is cheaper and volume has increased far more rapidly than anybody expected. I only wish it had happened sooner so that we could have avoided the need for energy intensive CCS to maintain livability. Things are going to suck, but there is a light at the end of the tunnel, unlike during the "drill baby drill" years of the Bush administration. Largely thanks to investments made during the Obama years, actually, which jump started the market, though by no means exclusively. We can also thank Germany and other countries that also heavily subsidized solar and wind during that time, the combination of which got volume high enough to jump start the cycle of increased volume and reduced cost which has made the transition an inevitability.
Happily, we're also reaching that point with batteries, which is why so many governments have been able to set goals for phasing out internal combustion engines of late now that the automakers have seen the writing on the wall. I'd rather have seen the decline of the personal automobile for so many other reasons, but I'll take what I can get.
posted by wierdo at 2:17 AM on July 20, 2022 [9 favorites]
Yes, economics are a bitch. Happily, as demand outstrips the ability for China to produce a sufficient quantity of cells and panels, investment in production capacity elsewhere is increasing, including in the US, where several new plants are being built as I write this.
Personally, I don't buy into the doom. Ten years ago I did, but since then the price of renewable energy has dropped to the point where only existing nuclear is cheaper and volume has increased far more rapidly than anybody expected. I only wish it had happened sooner so that we could have avoided the need for energy intensive CCS to maintain livability. Things are going to suck, but there is a light at the end of the tunnel, unlike during the "drill baby drill" years of the Bush administration. Largely thanks to investments made during the Obama years, actually, which jump started the market, though by no means exclusively. We can also thank Germany and other countries that also heavily subsidized solar and wind during that time, the combination of which got volume high enough to jump start the cycle of increased volume and reduced cost which has made the transition an inevitability.
Happily, we're also reaching that point with batteries, which is why so many governments have been able to set goals for phasing out internal combustion engines of late now that the automakers have seen the writing on the wall. I'd rather have seen the decline of the personal automobile for so many other reasons, but I'll take what I can get.
posted by wierdo at 2:17 AM on July 20, 2022 [9 favorites]
So perhaps, it might not be a good idea to indulge in this, because we're all trying not to lose our minds in this awful time.
Respectfully, you had a choice not to go into the comments of a post about people dying in their thousands thanks to unprecedented heat. This is a "Dead Dove, Do Not Eat" moment.
posted by fight or flight at 3:18 AM on July 20, 2022 [8 favorites]
Respectfully, you had a choice not to go into the comments of a post about people dying in their thousands thanks to unprecedented heat. This is a "Dead Dove, Do Not Eat" moment.
posted by fight or flight at 3:18 AM on July 20, 2022 [8 favorites]
FYI regarding heat and health: From an article in The Guardian, Women more at risk from heatwaves than men, experts suggest. My male buddy is off playing golf today. Meanwhile, I have blocked the windows where I am staying to the best of my ability, put some yogurt in the freezer for a cold snack later today, and put on a cotton top and then stepped into the shower to wet myself down, top included, in hopes that will cool me off as the top dries. We are two individuals and do not represent everyone by any means. Still, that guy has a much higher tolerance for heat than I do.
There are plenty of studies that show that everyone's brain basically loses the ability to function well way before there is any danger of dying. We absolutely have to pay attention to this stuff. Last night I watched the national news about the European heat catastrophe. One reporter, in Paris, was in his shirtsleeves. The other, in England to cover women's football (soccer), was wearing a jacket over his shirt. Yikes. I couldn't believe it.
As noted elsewhere, employers need to encourage employees to approach their duties differently in the heat. If they don't, employees need to do it anyway. That poor UPS driver, along with everyone else doing delivery and other work in the heat all around the globe. Bless you, xedrik (types this atheist), for your kindness. You may be saving lives this week, and you are certainly helping prevent injury. You rock!
posted by Bella Donna at 4:04 AM on July 20, 2022 [4 favorites]
There are plenty of studies that show that everyone's brain basically loses the ability to function well way before there is any danger of dying. We absolutely have to pay attention to this stuff. Last night I watched the national news about the European heat catastrophe. One reporter, in Paris, was in his shirtsleeves. The other, in England to cover women's football (soccer), was wearing a jacket over his shirt. Yikes. I couldn't believe it.
As noted elsewhere, employers need to encourage employees to approach their duties differently in the heat. If they don't, employees need to do it anyway. That poor UPS driver, along with everyone else doing delivery and other work in the heat all around the globe. Bless you, xedrik (types this atheist), for your kindness. You may be saving lives this week, and you are certainly helping prevent injury. You rock!
posted by Bella Donna at 4:04 AM on July 20, 2022 [4 favorites]
One of the favourites to become the next UK Prime Minister has chosen today to announce he will keep in place the effective ban on new onshore wind turbines in the UK, if he gets the job. The UK subsidised onshore wind from 1990 onwards, helping global efforts to reduce costs and make it the cheapest option for new capacity. then in 2015 they changed policy to make it extremely hard to actually build onshore, despite the UK's really good wind resource. Coincidentally, there is a new report out today about the potential for new renewable capacity to cut energy bills in the UK.
posted by biffa at 4:39 AM on July 20, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by biffa at 4:39 AM on July 20, 2022 [4 favorites]
The problem with sabotage of existing fossil fuel infrastructure is that going after supply without going after demand is fruitless. Ultimately what we are now seeing in the UK with gas prices is exactly the consequence of restricting new investment in extraction while doing little to reduce gas demand. Likewise, grand pronouncements from Fatih Birol at the IEA about how new fossil fuel projects are not compatible with a 1.5C world are strictly speaking correct but also one-sided. Logically it is obviously true that what is not extracted cannot be burned (or leaked) but focusing on supply side solutions practically works only if everyone in the world does it and in the meantime creates massive fuel poverty and an unhelpful (and unfair) backlash.
Also, gas was a bridge fuel but, you know, bridges have a beginning, a middle, and an end. Gas peakers are really useful if you have a renewable dominated grid. So it can simultaneously be true that gas *was* a bridge fuel while still not being appropriate to build *new* gas assets in 2022.
On the topic of building as many renewables as possible, well the UK despite its unhelpful restrictions on on-shore windfarm planning, will by 2030 have more name-plate wind and solar generating capacity than current Average Cold Spell peaking assumptions.
I think a lot of people who haven't sat down to think about it in depth, see the extremely low LCOEs for solar and wind and enter a Lazard dream-world where only LCOE matters and we can take this single scalar parameter and plan our whole energy system around it. That isn't true, LCOE is an important number but at high renewable penetrations you need to think about the grid (including consumers at the edges) holistically as a system and you cannot simply reduce all generation to a single number like this.
Nonetheless, LCOE does tell you how much it costs to produce a bucket of energy and so in energy-world, you'd want a system with just these low LCOE wind and solar options. In an electrified future, we live in power-world and not in energy-world so we need to see what we add to our low LCOE resources to make the whole system stack-up. We need to bridge between big heaped buckets of electrical energy generated at potentially inconvenient times and matching demand.
So we start with our cheap-energy (solar, wind, hydro) and then add other ingredients until we make the system work. We need the system to work:
1) Under average conditions (this sets the system economics)
2) Under "normal" peak conditions encountered every year
3) Under "stress" peak conditions which set the most the system can handle before it falls over (this sets the system design)
The first thing we apply is an optimised wind/solar portfolio mix. You don't want just wind or just solar in any one location even though one of those will usually have the lowest LCOE.
The second thing is geographic diversification. Distance is helpful but even better if you can connect places with uncorrelated or anti-correlated weather, so opposite sides of a mountain range for wind, East-West for solar etc. The more diversity you get, the more hours your optimal mix can supply. (obviously that optimal mix will change with greater connectivity).
If you make a "copper plate" approximation where you assume that all generation and all load is perfectly interconnected globally, you don't need to do any more than this - but of course that is quite an approximation to make.
The third thing is time shifting through storage assets, whether that is grid-level batteries, vehicle batteries, or domestic battery systems. I would suggest that non-battery storage options need to be treated separately to batteries because the physics are so different. In all cases, storage options which are cycled frequently are pretty easy to pay for and ones which are cycled infrequently become progressively harder to pay for.
Finally there is demand-side response. Shifting some loads to different parts of the day or between days or even between seasons. This can be EV smart charging, heating and cooling load shifting. The thing about demand side response is that in the short term, it's tremendously powerful. Almost all non-lighting loads can be shifted by short periods of time. A lot of energy gets spent moving liquids of gases from one place to another or making things cooler or hotter and those are all systems with inherent inertia which can be optimised by making the "buckets" at each end bigger to give you more time-shifting opportunity. However the longer scale potential is a lot less certain. If you switch your chillers off for three hours, you still need to make up for that cooling energy when they come back on, right?
It is a fact that a system failure is asymmetrically much worse than a system over-supply. Having 1MWh too much in any particular window is "whatever", having one too few (after exhausting all response options) is catastrophic. That inevitably leads to systems which have many hours where they have way too much energy in order to reduce the number of hours where they have too few. Where exactly this point lands depends on the cost of storage. If storage is cheap then you over-build less because you get your security of supply from storing small excesses and discharging them later. If storage is expensive then it gets cheaper to build more generation and just accept that you will have extra energy most of the time. To go back to what I said earlier about "energy world" vs "power world", the former is where we lived with fossil fuels since they are easily storable, in energy world you definitely don't throw energy away since energy is expensive. In "power world" it is peak power at times of system stress that is expensive, energy cumulatively can be discarded if required since its no longer what you optimise for.
Notably, if you make a virtue of of this necessity, you start to think of ways that you might re-optimise our civilisation for a world where energy is abundant most of the time but hyper-scarce a few hours a year. That leads to re-thinking industrial processes and all sorts of other things.
The outcome of a great deal of analysis on the scope of renewables + battery storage and DSR is this:
-In solar PV dominated regions, it is highly likely that you can cover normal peak conditions with only PV and some wind plus batteries plus demand side response. Whether you can cover system stress peaks depends on how often you will tolerate a system outage but probably you need some other contingency system. If you have hydro, great, problem solved. Otherwise it'll be something like hydrogen storage and combustion or even keeping natural gas peakers around for very occasional use.
-In wind dominated regions, unless you have enormous hydro reserves, you would have outages every year. That is because wind is much more correlated over time and space than solar - even cloudy days in Southern California have some solar generation and the nature of energy demand correlation with supply is also different - solar production peaks match AC demand peaks within a few hours. Wind dominated regions like NW Europe are prone to cold, overcast, and windless periods which can last several weeks and occur during the winter when heat demand is highest and the days are shortest. Frequent winter outages are not going to be acceptable to the general public when they freeze to death.
I think it can be tempting to think that a system which works 8750 hours a year but not the other 10 is almost there but this is an error. The system has to be designed for the stress condition. If it doesn't cover the required uptime, then it doesn't "almost" work. A lot of energy systems modelling makes some pretty questionable assumptions in order to work on this basis and it's bad engineering. A particular favourite of mine is assuming that a certain amount of required excess energy can be met from interconnectors without sufficiently constraining whether those interconnectors will be able to supply energy during times of domestic system stress (i.e. if there is no wind on the GB network for a week, is it realistic that the Dutch and Irish grids will have extra wind to export) and in the UK case often ends up assuming French nuclear will help out when required.
So the question then becomes: what rogue's gallery of technology comes out fix the gap?
Until we went from 80% reduction to net-zero, we could fool ourselves that we could just keep gas generation around for 50 or so hours a year, at least in places that already had it. It's fine as far as it goes but it doesn't get you to deep decarbonisation and if you want to decarbonise heating, you need to actually build new gas capacity and then use it barely ever. Doesn't seem compatible with a net zero aspiration and many places don't have existing gas generation.
Hydrogen electrolysis followed by geological storage and gas turbines. Expensive all the way, even though the energy round trip efficiency doesn't matter in "power world" since there is plenty of free energy, the capital costs are tremendous.
Nuclear. Maybe but it's not naturally a great complement for variable renewables. I have seen modelling that adds a small leaven of nuclear to a largely renewable system and gets you there. The costs are very high.
Other exotic technologies not yet commercialised.
So, yeah, it's just not the case that we've completely solved the problem though we do at least know how to get to about 10% to 20% of current electricity sector emissions which seems like a good task to get on with while we figure out the rest.
posted by atrazine at 4:53 AM on July 20, 2022 [17 favorites]
Also, gas was a bridge fuel but, you know, bridges have a beginning, a middle, and an end. Gas peakers are really useful if you have a renewable dominated grid. So it can simultaneously be true that gas *was* a bridge fuel while still not being appropriate to build *new* gas assets in 2022.
On the topic of building as many renewables as possible, well the UK despite its unhelpful restrictions on on-shore windfarm planning, will by 2030 have more name-plate wind and solar generating capacity than current Average Cold Spell peaking assumptions.
I think a lot of people who haven't sat down to think about it in depth, see the extremely low LCOEs for solar and wind and enter a Lazard dream-world where only LCOE matters and we can take this single scalar parameter and plan our whole energy system around it. That isn't true, LCOE is an important number but at high renewable penetrations you need to think about the grid (including consumers at the edges) holistically as a system and you cannot simply reduce all generation to a single number like this.
Nonetheless, LCOE does tell you how much it costs to produce a bucket of energy and so in energy-world, you'd want a system with just these low LCOE wind and solar options. In an electrified future, we live in power-world and not in energy-world so we need to see what we add to our low LCOE resources to make the whole system stack-up. We need to bridge between big heaped buckets of electrical energy generated at potentially inconvenient times and matching demand.
So we start with our cheap-energy (solar, wind, hydro) and then add other ingredients until we make the system work. We need the system to work:
1) Under average conditions (this sets the system economics)
2) Under "normal" peak conditions encountered every year
3) Under "stress" peak conditions which set the most the system can handle before it falls over (this sets the system design)
The first thing we apply is an optimised wind/solar portfolio mix. You don't want just wind or just solar in any one location even though one of those will usually have the lowest LCOE.
The second thing is geographic diversification. Distance is helpful but even better if you can connect places with uncorrelated or anti-correlated weather, so opposite sides of a mountain range for wind, East-West for solar etc. The more diversity you get, the more hours your optimal mix can supply. (obviously that optimal mix will change with greater connectivity).
If you make a "copper plate" approximation where you assume that all generation and all load is perfectly interconnected globally, you don't need to do any more than this - but of course that is quite an approximation to make.
The third thing is time shifting through storage assets, whether that is grid-level batteries, vehicle batteries, or domestic battery systems. I would suggest that non-battery storage options need to be treated separately to batteries because the physics are so different. In all cases, storage options which are cycled frequently are pretty easy to pay for and ones which are cycled infrequently become progressively harder to pay for.
Finally there is demand-side response. Shifting some loads to different parts of the day or between days or even between seasons. This can be EV smart charging, heating and cooling load shifting. The thing about demand side response is that in the short term, it's tremendously powerful. Almost all non-lighting loads can be shifted by short periods of time. A lot of energy gets spent moving liquids of gases from one place to another or making things cooler or hotter and those are all systems with inherent inertia which can be optimised by making the "buckets" at each end bigger to give you more time-shifting opportunity. However the longer scale potential is a lot less certain. If you switch your chillers off for three hours, you still need to make up for that cooling energy when they come back on, right?
It is a fact that a system failure is asymmetrically much worse than a system over-supply. Having 1MWh too much in any particular window is "whatever", having one too few (after exhausting all response options) is catastrophic. That inevitably leads to systems which have many hours where they have way too much energy in order to reduce the number of hours where they have too few. Where exactly this point lands depends on the cost of storage. If storage is cheap then you over-build less because you get your security of supply from storing small excesses and discharging them later. If storage is expensive then it gets cheaper to build more generation and just accept that you will have extra energy most of the time. To go back to what I said earlier about "energy world" vs "power world", the former is where we lived with fossil fuels since they are easily storable, in energy world you definitely don't throw energy away since energy is expensive. In "power world" it is peak power at times of system stress that is expensive, energy cumulatively can be discarded if required since its no longer what you optimise for.
Notably, if you make a virtue of of this necessity, you start to think of ways that you might re-optimise our civilisation for a world where energy is abundant most of the time but hyper-scarce a few hours a year. That leads to re-thinking industrial processes and all sorts of other things.
The outcome of a great deal of analysis on the scope of renewables + battery storage and DSR is this:
-In solar PV dominated regions, it is highly likely that you can cover normal peak conditions with only PV and some wind plus batteries plus demand side response. Whether you can cover system stress peaks depends on how often you will tolerate a system outage but probably you need some other contingency system. If you have hydro, great, problem solved. Otherwise it'll be something like hydrogen storage and combustion or even keeping natural gas peakers around for very occasional use.
-In wind dominated regions, unless you have enormous hydro reserves, you would have outages every year. That is because wind is much more correlated over time and space than solar - even cloudy days in Southern California have some solar generation and the nature of energy demand correlation with supply is also different - solar production peaks match AC demand peaks within a few hours. Wind dominated regions like NW Europe are prone to cold, overcast, and windless periods which can last several weeks and occur during the winter when heat demand is highest and the days are shortest. Frequent winter outages are not going to be acceptable to the general public when they freeze to death.
I think it can be tempting to think that a system which works 8750 hours a year but not the other 10 is almost there but this is an error. The system has to be designed for the stress condition. If it doesn't cover the required uptime, then it doesn't "almost" work. A lot of energy systems modelling makes some pretty questionable assumptions in order to work on this basis and it's bad engineering. A particular favourite of mine is assuming that a certain amount of required excess energy can be met from interconnectors without sufficiently constraining whether those interconnectors will be able to supply energy during times of domestic system stress (i.e. if there is no wind on the GB network for a week, is it realistic that the Dutch and Irish grids will have extra wind to export) and in the UK case often ends up assuming French nuclear will help out when required.
So the question then becomes: what rogue's gallery of technology comes out fix the gap?
Until we went from 80% reduction to net-zero, we could fool ourselves that we could just keep gas generation around for 50 or so hours a year, at least in places that already had it. It's fine as far as it goes but it doesn't get you to deep decarbonisation and if you want to decarbonise heating, you need to actually build new gas capacity and then use it barely ever. Doesn't seem compatible with a net zero aspiration and many places don't have existing gas generation.
Hydrogen electrolysis followed by geological storage and gas turbines. Expensive all the way, even though the energy round trip efficiency doesn't matter in "power world" since there is plenty of free energy, the capital costs are tremendous.
Nuclear. Maybe but it's not naturally a great complement for variable renewables. I have seen modelling that adds a small leaven of nuclear to a largely renewable system and gets you there. The costs are very high.
Other exotic technologies not yet commercialised.
So, yeah, it's just not the case that we've completely solved the problem though we do at least know how to get to about 10% to 20% of current electricity sector emissions which seems like a good task to get on with while we figure out the rest.
posted by atrazine at 4:53 AM on July 20, 2022 [17 favorites]
For others, like me, who don't know Fatih Birol, IEA or LCOE, Birol is Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA) and LCOE means Levelized Cost of Energy. The IEA has many colourful charts regarding the LCOE range for selected dispatchable low emissions electricity sources in the Sustainable Development Scenario, 2030, 2040 and 2050. I have no idea what any of that means but it was fun to type.
The electricity prices in Sweden have shot up, especially in the southern part of the country. According to Tim McDonnell, writing in Quartz on 18 July: When Russia invaded Ukraine, average European electricity prices briefly leapt above $500 per megawatt-hour, then leveled out around $180 over the last few months. Now the price is almost $300, more than triple the price at this time last year, according to intelligence firm Rystad Energy. In the UK, average household energy bills for 2022 could exceed $4,000, which would be almost double last year.
High electricity prices are also a dangerous and costly health hazard, the Red Cross warned, to the extent that cooling and heating become unaffordable. Nearly 3,000 people are killed by heat-related illness in Europe annually—a figure that European officials project could increase 10-fold by 2050 as a result of climate change.
(Because this thread is about Europe, will note only in passing that as bad as things are and will be here in Europe, other regions are suffering and will suffer even more.)
posted by Bella Donna at 5:24 AM on July 20, 2022 [4 favorites]
The electricity prices in Sweden have shot up, especially in the southern part of the country. According to Tim McDonnell, writing in Quartz on 18 July: When Russia invaded Ukraine, average European electricity prices briefly leapt above $500 per megawatt-hour, then leveled out around $180 over the last few months. Now the price is almost $300, more than triple the price at this time last year, according to intelligence firm Rystad Energy. In the UK, average household energy bills for 2022 could exceed $4,000, which would be almost double last year.
High electricity prices are also a dangerous and costly health hazard, the Red Cross warned, to the extent that cooling and heating become unaffordable. Nearly 3,000 people are killed by heat-related illness in Europe annually—a figure that European officials project could increase 10-fold by 2050 as a result of climate change.
(Because this thread is about Europe, will note only in passing that as bad as things are and will be here in Europe, other regions are suffering and will suffer even more.)
posted by Bella Donna at 5:24 AM on July 20, 2022 [4 favorites]
In the UK, average household energy bills for 2022 could exceed $4,000, which would be almost double last year.
This is an underestimate. The average UK bill was capped at £1277 last year. Its now looking like it will be in the £3300-3400 range (which fits with the US$4000 figure), but the total change is more than double.
To explain the cap, its actually a rate per unit, but its then related to the average household consumption, I assume as it makes it easier to understand. If you are using more energy, you will have higher bills.
posted by biffa at 5:48 AM on July 20, 2022 [2 favorites]
This is an underestimate. The average UK bill was capped at £1277 last year. Its now looking like it will be in the £3300-3400 range (which fits with the US$4000 figure), but the total change is more than double.
To explain the cap, its actually a rate per unit, but its then related to the average household consumption, I assume as it makes it easier to understand. If you are using more energy, you will have higher bills.
posted by biffa at 5:48 AM on July 20, 2022 [2 favorites]
Sorry, never quite know how much background people have in energy stuff.
Levelised cost of energy (LCOE) is the cost per unit of energy which you get by adding up all the capital costs of building a generator, all the operating costs (including fuel, if any), "discounting" it all back to present day using an assumed cost of money which is based on interest rates, and dividing the total energy produced by that number.
It gives a single number which represents how expensive it is to produce energy from a particular technology and was invented by Lazard, an investment bank.
The problem with it is that it doesn't account for system costs and other capabilities but there is no way of collapsing all those characteristics into a single number, people have tried but they inevitably come up with fairly self-serving numbers which make their preferred technology look best.
The LCOE of utility scale solar PV in California is the lowest of any technology. That doesn't mean that the cheapest overall system for California is 100% utility scale solar - because that system doesn't work, but LCOE doesn't capture that.
posted by atrazine at 6:15 AM on July 20, 2022 [8 favorites]
Levelised cost of energy (LCOE) is the cost per unit of energy which you get by adding up all the capital costs of building a generator, all the operating costs (including fuel, if any), "discounting" it all back to present day using an assumed cost of money which is based on interest rates, and dividing the total energy produced by that number.
It gives a single number which represents how expensive it is to produce energy from a particular technology and was invented by Lazard, an investment bank.
The problem with it is that it doesn't account for system costs and other capabilities but there is no way of collapsing all those characteristics into a single number, people have tried but they inevitably come up with fairly self-serving numbers which make their preferred technology look best.
The LCOE of utility scale solar PV in California is the lowest of any technology. That doesn't mean that the cheapest overall system for California is 100% utility scale solar - because that system doesn't work, but LCOE doesn't capture that.
posted by atrazine at 6:15 AM on July 20, 2022 [8 favorites]
The heatwave has hit us here in central Europe. On the radio they interviewed a climate scientist at the
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and he mentioned the need to at minimum improve cities to handle the heat. Neighborhoods need places where people can cool off. It's not enough to plant trees along the road. We need more green areas with many trees providing shade that people can walk to. We need the things that have been mentioned in this thread, basically. Remove car parks, add tree parks. It seems maybe simplistic and it's surely Never Enough to Solve All Problems, but so what? You don't need life-changing technology to change and improve lives.
It's way past time to convert entire streets into bike, pedestrian and other light vehicle paths. We've spent decades figuring out ways to fit cars everywhere at the inconvenience of all other methods of transportation. In the past, decision makers didn't care if highways and parked vehicles across neighborhoods inconvenienced people. There's no reason why the opposite cannot happen now. Give the streets to walkers, wheelchair users, trams, cyclists and trees... Let car drivers figure out how they can get from A to B. People's lives will improve and we will live longer.
Sure, it may not work everywhere. But it sure as hell would work in pretty much all of urban Europe. So why not here?
posted by UN at 6:53 AM on July 20, 2022 [8 favorites]
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and he mentioned the need to at minimum improve cities to handle the heat. Neighborhoods need places where people can cool off. It's not enough to plant trees along the road. We need more green areas with many trees providing shade that people can walk to. We need the things that have been mentioned in this thread, basically. Remove car parks, add tree parks. It seems maybe simplistic and it's surely Never Enough to Solve All Problems, but so what? You don't need life-changing technology to change and improve lives.
It's way past time to convert entire streets into bike, pedestrian and other light vehicle paths. We've spent decades figuring out ways to fit cars everywhere at the inconvenience of all other methods of transportation. In the past, decision makers didn't care if highways and parked vehicles across neighborhoods inconvenienced people. There's no reason why the opposite cannot happen now. Give the streets to walkers, wheelchair users, trams, cyclists and trees... Let car drivers figure out how they can get from A to B. People's lives will improve and we will live longer.
Sure, it may not work everywhere. But it sure as hell would work in pretty much all of urban Europe. So why not here?
posted by UN at 6:53 AM on July 20, 2022 [8 favorites]
Why Britain’s got the worst-built homes in Europe – and how we can fix them:
As Britons swelter in the highest temperatures on record, the UK’s substandard and overheating housing is again under the spotlight. Most British homes are unable to keep residents cool in heatwaves and are cripplingly expensive to heat in the winter. By the numbers, we have some of the worst-performing housing stock in Europe. Our homes are poorly insulated and draughty, have virtually no shading and are badly oriented. How did one of the world’s wealthiest economies end up with houses that are so unprepared for extreme weather?posted by TheophileEscargot at 7:25 AM on July 20, 2022 [15 favorites]
....British domestic architecture has also been shaped by idiosyncratic rules that contribute to its poor environmental credentials. For instance, in many parts of the UK, homes that face each other at the rear are required to be built 21 metres apart. This large distance means that instead of clustering buildings together around cool courtyards or shady streets, as is common in hotter climates, many homes in new neighbourhoods are directly exposed to the sun.
The 21-metre rule is, according to the Stirling prize-winning architect Annalie Riches, a bizarre hangover from 1902, originally intended to protect the modesty of Edwardian women. The urban designers Raymond Unwin and Barry Parker walked apart in a field until they could no longer see each other’s nipples through their shirts. The two men measured the distance between them to be 70ft (21 metres), and this became the distance that is still used today, 120 years later, to dictate how far apart many British homes should be built...
More recently, further deregulation has seen an estimated 65,000 micro homes made by partitioning old offices and commercial buildings into flats without planning permission, leading to dwellings in some cases as small as 15 or 10 sq metres. As small spaces heat up more quickly than large ones, especially when they are overcrowded, cramped flats soon become stifling in the heat.
Another crucial victim of our falling housing standards was cross-ventilation. This is when flats are designed with windows sited on opposite sides of the property that can be opened to allow a breeze to blow through. This kind of ventilation was once a common feature of new UK domestic architecture, but over the course of four decades of deregulation it has become rare, as profiteering and spiralling land prices mean developers have cut costs by building difficult to cool, single-aspect homes. Research by the National House Building Council foundation in 2012 found there is increasing evidence that new dwellings are “at risk of overheating, especially small dwellings and flats and predominantly single-sided properties where cross ventilation is not possible”.
Notably, if you make a virtue of of this necessity, you start to think of ways that you might re-optimise our civilisation for a world where energy is abundant most of the time but hyper-scarce a few hours a year. That leads to re-thinking industrial processes and all sorts of other things.
Yeah this is already happening in South Australia, which periodically reaches periods of over 100% grid demand met via renewable energy.
Large energy users which have the ability to time-shift their demand have profited handsomely from the boom and bust nature of renewable energy - for example, an aluminium or steel smelter, which consumes prodigious amounts of electricity, can chose to operate when the wholesale rate of electricity is zero or even negative - they get paid to soak up excess energy from the grid.
They basically use forecasts of renewable generation vs forecasts of grid demand, then deduce the price per hour over the next few days, and schedule shift workers to run the factory at those times, typically around 9am to 4pm on sunny days. Peak grid demand is around 7-8am and 6-7pm but you have peak generation from midday solar in between that needs to be soaked up by these factories.
posted by xdvesper at 7:41 AM on July 20, 2022 [6 favorites]
Yeah this is already happening in South Australia, which periodically reaches periods of over 100% grid demand met via renewable energy.
Large energy users which have the ability to time-shift their demand have profited handsomely from the boom and bust nature of renewable energy - for example, an aluminium or steel smelter, which consumes prodigious amounts of electricity, can chose to operate when the wholesale rate of electricity is zero or even negative - they get paid to soak up excess energy from the grid.
They basically use forecasts of renewable generation vs forecasts of grid demand, then deduce the price per hour over the next few days, and schedule shift workers to run the factory at those times, typically around 9am to 4pm on sunny days. Peak grid demand is around 7-8am and 6-7pm but you have peak generation from midday solar in between that needs to be soaked up by these factories.
posted by xdvesper at 7:41 AM on July 20, 2022 [6 favorites]
(Because this thread is about Europe, will note only in passing that as bad as things are and will be here in Europe, other regions are suffering and will suffer even more.)
Which absolutely affects Europe - and America -- in both the short and long term.
There are regions of the world that will become periodically unlivable before most of Europe would, though there will be pockets everywhere. There are communities and businesses and nations that will see the writing on the wall and retool accordingly, ones that see the writing and deliberately choose and vote to ignore it, and ones that have neither the capital nor the infrastructure to mass-adapt for general living.
Which means mass migration. Which means irregularities in food supplies due to changes in farming and lost crops. Which means the cost of livable areas shooting up as demand for them increases. Which means continuing outcries against immigration by those who think The Camp of the Saints was a documentary and its events are happening in real-time. Solutions based around the current population size and structure will need to figure in influxes of newcomers, where they'll live and how they'll live and how that'll affect those areas in the coming decades.
It shouldn't be a light-switch kind of event; it'll ramp slowly, year after year, shifting with political and meteorological tides. But sometimes ripple effects can create slowly, slowly, slowly, all-at-once kinds of crisis events.
posted by delfin at 8:05 AM on July 20, 2022 [2 favorites]
Which absolutely affects Europe - and America -- in both the short and long term.
There are regions of the world that will become periodically unlivable before most of Europe would, though there will be pockets everywhere. There are communities and businesses and nations that will see the writing on the wall and retool accordingly, ones that see the writing and deliberately choose and vote to ignore it, and ones that have neither the capital nor the infrastructure to mass-adapt for general living.
Which means mass migration. Which means irregularities in food supplies due to changes in farming and lost crops. Which means the cost of livable areas shooting up as demand for them increases. Which means continuing outcries against immigration by those who think The Camp of the Saints was a documentary and its events are happening in real-time. Solutions based around the current population size and structure will need to figure in influxes of newcomers, where they'll live and how they'll live and how that'll affect those areas in the coming decades.
It shouldn't be a light-switch kind of event; it'll ramp slowly, year after year, shifting with political and meteorological tides. But sometimes ripple effects can create slowly, slowly, slowly, all-at-once kinds of crisis events.
posted by delfin at 8:05 AM on July 20, 2022 [2 favorites]
Notably, if you make a virtue of of this necessity, you start to think of ways that you might re-optimise our civilisation for a world where energy is abundant most of the time but hyper-scarce a few hours a year. That leads to re-thinking industrial processes and all sorts of other things.
This is exactly the model we're using at our house now that I've found a domestic electricity biller that supports it. It's cut our electricity bills almost in half over the last couple of years, compared to the fixed-price retail energy resellers we used to get billed by.
At the moment the entire east coast of Australia is seeing some pretty ridiculous wholesale prices because a whole bunch of "reliable" coal-fired power went offline all at once - some due to equipment failure in creaky old plant, some due to serious flooding messing with the open cut coal mines - and our Amber bills are correspondingly ridiculous. But the more renewable generators get added to our grid, the more often we'll see our end use cost of energy drop to maybe a fifth of the usual retail rate and the more opportunities we'll get to shift our demand toward those hours when it has.
posted by flabdablet at 8:13 AM on July 20, 2022 [1 favorite]
This is exactly the model we're using at our house now that I've found a domestic electricity biller that supports it. It's cut our electricity bills almost in half over the last couple of years, compared to the fixed-price retail energy resellers we used to get billed by.
At the moment the entire east coast of Australia is seeing some pretty ridiculous wholesale prices because a whole bunch of "reliable" coal-fired power went offline all at once - some due to equipment failure in creaky old plant, some due to serious flooding messing with the open cut coal mines - and our Amber bills are correspondingly ridiculous. But the more renewable generators get added to our grid, the more often we'll see our end use cost of energy drop to maybe a fifth of the usual retail rate and the more opportunities we'll get to shift our demand toward those hours when it has.
posted by flabdablet at 8:13 AM on July 20, 2022 [1 favorite]
Here, it is possible to buy your electricity from a company that only uses renewable sources, mostly wind, but sometimes solar or from water turbines in Norway. My monthly bill for a family of four adults with all the mod cons and computers is equivalent about 70-80 US dollars, which is a little more than half of the normal cost, where there is a mix of sustainable and carbon-based energy.
I remember when the salesman called me, and he was sooo sketchy. I told him to send me a written offer, and he said he wasn't allowed to, so obviously I said I won't sign anything I can't read in advance (are you stupid or what??) Anyway, he called his boss and got permission and I made the calculations and called him back to ask why he used sketchy methods when their product was obviously both cheaper and sounder. People are weird.
My gas price is fixed for 2022, but bound to jump next year, so today I bought an induction plate at IKEA, inspired by this thread and also by the fact that I spent 15 minutes cooking a soft-boiled egg this morning with my gas burner adding to the sweltering heat in the kitchen. I couldn't even imagine boiling potatoes tonight. I've been thinking of this for ages, not so much because of the gas price, it's still cheap at about 10 dollars a month, and we only use it for cooking. But gas is not very good if you want to just keep things at a low simmer, and induction is amazing for boiling a pot of water for potatoes or pasta in no time. Add in the climate aspect and suddenly today was the day.
posted by mumimor at 8:53 AM on July 20, 2022 [3 favorites]
I remember when the salesman called me, and he was sooo sketchy. I told him to send me a written offer, and he said he wasn't allowed to, so obviously I said I won't sign anything I can't read in advance (are you stupid or what??) Anyway, he called his boss and got permission and I made the calculations and called him back to ask why he used sketchy methods when their product was obviously both cheaper and sounder. People are weird.
My gas price is fixed for 2022, but bound to jump next year, so today I bought an induction plate at IKEA, inspired by this thread and also by the fact that I spent 15 minutes cooking a soft-boiled egg this morning with my gas burner adding to the sweltering heat in the kitchen. I couldn't even imagine boiling potatoes tonight. I've been thinking of this for ages, not so much because of the gas price, it's still cheap at about 10 dollars a month, and we only use it for cooking. But gas is not very good if you want to just keep things at a low simmer, and induction is amazing for boiling a pot of water for potatoes or pasta in no time. Add in the climate aspect and suddenly today was the day.
posted by mumimor at 8:53 AM on July 20, 2022 [3 favorites]
I finally did the math today after years of dithering. I noticed that Panasonic now sells 330 watt panels with the Enphase microinverters. If I buy four of these things at around $450 each, I can effectively cut the energy I use from the grid by a third or more. And that's using fairly conservative numbers and I'm also planning to replace my 50 year old central HVAC system with a heat pump.
We're getting to the point (if we're not already there) that the excuses for not doing this are getting pretty flimsy.
posted by drstrangelove at 9:05 AM on July 20, 2022 [3 favorites]
We're getting to the point (if we're not already there) that the excuses for not doing this are getting pretty flimsy.
posted by drstrangelove at 9:05 AM on July 20, 2022 [3 favorites]
But gas is not very good if you want to just keep things at a low simmer
Oh! Does induction do that well?
Nothing would persuade me to go back to ordinary electric rings, after getting used to the responsiveness of gas, but the fact that I absolutely can't just leave something simmering quietly for a couple of hours is a nuisance I've been wondering how best to solve. My kitchen is tiny and very full, but I could accommodate a single induction plate.
posted by ManyLeggedCreature at 9:07 AM on July 20, 2022
Oh! Does induction do that well?
Nothing would persuade me to go back to ordinary electric rings, after getting used to the responsiveness of gas, but the fact that I absolutely can't just leave something simmering quietly for a couple of hours is a nuisance I've been wondering how best to solve. My kitchen is tiny and very full, but I could accommodate a single induction plate.
posted by ManyLeggedCreature at 9:07 AM on July 20, 2022
Oh! Does induction do that well?
Absolutely. We have induction at our family farm, and I hated it at first, you need to learn to use it. But what won me over wasn't the fast boil, it was the slow simmer. It's really an improvement of quality of life, if you enjoy slow cooked food or just warm gravy always at hand for Christmas dinner.
posted by mumimor at 9:13 AM on July 20, 2022 [1 favorite]
Absolutely. We have induction at our family farm, and I hated it at first, you need to learn to use it. But what won me over wasn't the fast boil, it was the slow simmer. It's really an improvement of quality of life, if you enjoy slow cooked food or just warm gravy always at hand for Christmas dinner.
posted by mumimor at 9:13 AM on July 20, 2022 [1 favorite]
I looked at an induction cooktop years ago was impressed at the speed which it could boil a pot of water but even more impressive, it did so with an ice cube about half an inch away from it. Whatever melting occurred was from the heat radiating off of the pot itself-- the surface underneath it was stone cold.
posted by drstrangelove at 9:26 AM on July 20, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by drstrangelove at 9:26 AM on July 20, 2022 [3 favorites]
*side eye emoji* Uhhh...buntastic...
posted by sharp pointy objects at 9:56 AM on July 20, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by sharp pointy objects at 9:56 AM on July 20, 2022 [1 favorite]
Sizewell C: 3.2GW for £20bn. That's £6 per watt even before the construction cost blows out by a factor of two to three, which it almost certainly will, and the watts won't turn up for at least ten years, and that's only the construction cost so it doesn't even cover operating costs or decommissioning.
UK offshore wind power can realistically be had for under £2.50 per watt (a capex estimate that does include decommissioning) and be pushing power into the grid three years after the initial decision to proceed.
For multi-gigawatt projects, that difference would buy a shitload of storage.
posted by flabdablet at 10:29 AM on July 20, 2022 [6 favorites]
UK offshore wind power can realistically be had for under £2.50 per watt (a capex estimate that does include decommissioning) and be pushing power into the grid three years after the initial decision to proceed.
For multi-gigawatt projects, that difference would buy a shitload of storage.
posted by flabdablet at 10:29 AM on July 20, 2022 [6 favorites]
And Sizewell C. won't come online for at least a decade after construction begins, whenever that is.
posted by JohnFromGR at 10:31 AM on July 20, 2022
posted by JohnFromGR at 10:31 AM on July 20, 2022
And wind doesn't lock in a requirement to support a nuclear fuel cycle that directly supports nuclear weapons proliferation.
posted by flabdablet at 10:34 AM on July 20, 2022 [8 favorites]
posted by flabdablet at 10:34 AM on July 20, 2022 [8 favorites]
Yeah, so that's what I was hinting at, buntastic.
I believe most of the participants in the thread are very anti-nuclear power. I have no strong feelings about it one way or another, though I'd probably lean more in favor of it if anyone actually had a long-term, decent waste disposal plan. So lacking that, I'd really rather that 20bn go into renewable energy sources or storage solutions for renewables for off-peak hours.
Or barring that, how about 20bn going into building new energy efficient housing stock, or retrofitting some of what's out there? If Sizewell C is going to produce 3.2GW eventually, is there any way to instead reduce the amount of power consumption by that much in the area it would serve, negating the need for the new plant?
I don't live in the UK, I probably never will. But I definitely understand living under politicians that seem absolutely unwilling to even consider doing things in a different way, stretching their necks out even an inch, and sitting back and counting their votes while everyone else who isn't rich and powerful sinks down farther into hellish conditions.
posted by sharp pointy objects at 11:00 AM on July 20, 2022 [1 favorite]
I believe most of the participants in the thread are very anti-nuclear power. I have no strong feelings about it one way or another, though I'd probably lean more in favor of it if anyone actually had a long-term, decent waste disposal plan. So lacking that, I'd really rather that 20bn go into renewable energy sources or storage solutions for renewables for off-peak hours.
Or barring that, how about 20bn going into building new energy efficient housing stock, or retrofitting some of what's out there? If Sizewell C is going to produce 3.2GW eventually, is there any way to instead reduce the amount of power consumption by that much in the area it would serve, negating the need for the new plant?
I don't live in the UK, I probably never will. But I definitely understand living under politicians that seem absolutely unwilling to even consider doing things in a different way, stretching their necks out even an inch, and sitting back and counting their votes while everyone else who isn't rich and powerful sinks down farther into hellish conditions.
posted by sharp pointy objects at 11:00 AM on July 20, 2022 [1 favorite]
though I'd probably lean more in favor of it if anyone actually had a long-term, decent waste disposal plan.
years ago (the 1990s?), I read in Mother Jones mag that due to current nuclear waste issues (both their extreme toxicity and the time scale of that toxicity) that we (humanity) were already committed to a fifty thousand year plan, and one that realistically (given the catastrophic cost in getting it wrong) could only really be trusted to a bureaucracy as rigidly disciplined as a military.
So ... a military industrial complex sure to mucking around in our affairs for twenty-five times as long as it's been since Christ allegedly walked among us. That was sobering.
And it can't help but colour my attitude toward the nuclear question re: Climate Change. Something along the lines of, well, we've already unleashed that fucking genii, haven't we? Which isn't I hope an argument for going full on nuclear because what the hell!?!?! More just, well here we are. Let's be honest about it. Humanity's future necessarily demands we get our collective shit together in all manner of complex ways.
If I was a politician (I'm not, thank God), I imagine I'd have to be open to imagining how we might reconcile this nuclear monster of our own making, perhaps even harness it. Maybe start with easy common fucking sense stuff like, hey, let's not build nuclear power plants in coastline areas near known major earthquake zones.
posted by philip-random at 11:27 AM on July 20, 2022 [3 favorites]
years ago (the 1990s?), I read in Mother Jones mag that due to current nuclear waste issues (both their extreme toxicity and the time scale of that toxicity) that we (humanity) were already committed to a fifty thousand year plan, and one that realistically (given the catastrophic cost in getting it wrong) could only really be trusted to a bureaucracy as rigidly disciplined as a military.
So ... a military industrial complex sure to mucking around in our affairs for twenty-five times as long as it's been since Christ allegedly walked among us. That was sobering.
And it can't help but colour my attitude toward the nuclear question re: Climate Change. Something along the lines of, well, we've already unleashed that fucking genii, haven't we? Which isn't I hope an argument for going full on nuclear because what the hell!?!?! More just, well here we are. Let's be honest about it. Humanity's future necessarily demands we get our collective shit together in all manner of complex ways.
If I was a politician (I'm not, thank God), I imagine I'd have to be open to imagining how we might reconcile this nuclear monster of our own making, perhaps even harness it. Maybe start with easy common fucking sense stuff like, hey, let's not build nuclear power plants in coastline areas near known major earthquake zones.
posted by philip-random at 11:27 AM on July 20, 2022 [3 favorites]
And workplace heat exhaustion and heat-related deaths
Meanwhile, the law does nothing to stop workers toiling in the gruelling heat. Currently it only recommends employers maintain a temperature that is ‘reasonable’, rather than setting a maximum working temperature. “Restaurants will say on a risk assessment that staff have access to water,” Tina tells Novara Media. “But having a running tap in the building doesn’t mean a worker has permission to use it.”posted by spamandkimchi at 11:34 AM on July 20, 2022 [5 favorites]
Heat-related deaths had previously been concentrated in parts of the labour market defined by precarious and informal conditions, such as agriculture and construction, but they’re now becoming more common in other sectors. During a heatwave in August 2020, postal workers Philip Bentham and Mark Cremer died on or just after completing their rounds.
The Trades Union Congress is calling for the introduction of a maximum indoor temperature of 30C, or 27C for ‘strenuous jobs’, while the GMB union has called for a maximum of 25C.
I'm in favour of keeping existing nuclear; i.e., Germany scrapping its nuclear plants and, with the cheap Russian gas running out, replacing them with thermal coal of all things is unfathomably stupid, and will lead to thousands of deaths from pollution and global warming (which is thousands more than nuclear, even if you assumed a Fukushima-style catastrophe at some time in its lifecycle). However, whether it makes sense to build new nuclear when renewables plus storage are options is another question.
posted by acb at 11:36 AM on July 20, 2022 [7 favorites]
posted by acb at 11:36 AM on July 20, 2022 [7 favorites]
It's stupid to build nukes, period, because they're so crazy expensive and slow and fragile and the typically huge scale of them means that when one does fail it causes large energy supply shocks.
It's double stupid to shut one down before the end of its safe design life and thereby make every joule it ever emitted cost even more unless there is an alternative energy source available that can be dropped in immediately to replace it where the cost of doing that beats that of keeping on running the nuke.
Solar PV and wind plus batteries have already reached that point vs. existing coal in many places (even new rooftop solar is now the lowest-cost way to get power into an Australian house). End-use efficiency improvements cost even less (I'm quite fond of Lovins's pithy observation that negawatts are cheaper than megawatts). But I completely agree that prematurely turning off existing German nuclear plant and using coal to fill the resulting supply gap is as clear a case of counterproductive short sighted politics-driven knee-jerkery as any you'd ever find.
posted by flabdablet at 12:00 PM on July 20, 2022 [11 favorites]
It's double stupid to shut one down before the end of its safe design life and thereby make every joule it ever emitted cost even more unless there is an alternative energy source available that can be dropped in immediately to replace it where the cost of doing that beats that of keeping on running the nuke.
Solar PV and wind plus batteries have already reached that point vs. existing coal in many places (even new rooftop solar is now the lowest-cost way to get power into an Australian house). End-use efficiency improvements cost even less (I'm quite fond of Lovins's pithy observation that negawatts are cheaper than megawatts). But I completely agree that prematurely turning off existing German nuclear plant and using coal to fill the resulting supply gap is as clear a case of counterproductive short sighted politics-driven knee-jerkery as any you'd ever find.
posted by flabdablet at 12:00 PM on July 20, 2022 [11 favorites]
The whole thing about the German nuclear plants is that it is complicated. Nuclear plants take years to shut down, and they are at the planned end of that process now.
"For years, we have been doing nothing other than preparing both technically and organisationally for the decommissioning of our plants," a spokesperson for E.ON's nuclear division PreussenElektra said.
The group neither has the nuclear fuel nor the staff that would be required to keep plants going, the spokesperson added.
RWE said its Emsland plant was scheduled to be decommissioned at the end of 2022, by which time its fuel will have been used up, adding there would be high hurdles to overcome, both technically and in terms of getting the necessary approvals, to extend the life-span.
That doesn't mean they can't be restarted, but it is not like just turning a switch. And as many have said upthread, starting a new plant now is just stupid and meaningless. It takes years and a lot of investment to establish a plant, and by the time it is running, sustainable sources will definitely be up and very competitive. Also, as flabdablet noted, nuclear power plants are intertwined with nuclear arms. Iran could have built a sustainable power grid long ago if they wanted to. They have great engineers and trade with China, and both wind and sunlight. They are going for nuclear because of the arms potential.
Germany might be rearming because of Ukraine, but nuclear arms is a step too far for the German electorate.
posted by mumimor at 1:11 PM on July 20, 2022 [1 favorite]
"For years, we have been doing nothing other than preparing both technically and organisationally for the decommissioning of our plants," a spokesperson for E.ON's nuclear division PreussenElektra said.
The group neither has the nuclear fuel nor the staff that would be required to keep plants going, the spokesperson added.
RWE said its Emsland plant was scheduled to be decommissioned at the end of 2022, by which time its fuel will have been used up, adding there would be high hurdles to overcome, both technically and in terms of getting the necessary approvals, to extend the life-span.
That doesn't mean they can't be restarted, but it is not like just turning a switch. And as many have said upthread, starting a new plant now is just stupid and meaningless. It takes years and a lot of investment to establish a plant, and by the time it is running, sustainable sources will definitely be up and very competitive. Also, as flabdablet noted, nuclear power plants are intertwined with nuclear arms. Iran could have built a sustainable power grid long ago if they wanted to. They have great engineers and trade with China, and both wind and sunlight. They are going for nuclear because of the arms potential.
Germany might be rearming because of Ukraine, but nuclear arms is a step too far for the German electorate.
posted by mumimor at 1:11 PM on July 20, 2022 [1 favorite]
I'm putting in a good word for Frogg Togs, a big flat sponge which cools by slow evaporation. Obviously not a complete solution for a lot of reasons (humidity can't be too high, some people can't afford them), but definitely helps.
The other thing is Gel'O Pillow Mat, a pillow filled with something which stays cooler than the air for a while, and then regenerates its coolness after you're away from it for a while. I'm not sure what the base place to order it from is.
I've been living in Philadelphia without AC, and these are the best products of the sort I've found.
There are other brands of sponges, but I haven't tried them.
My impression is that British houses don't have good climate control because there's a belief that there's something weak about wanting to be at a comfortable temperature. Yes? No? Maybe?
posted by Nancy Lebovitz at 1:49 PM on July 20, 2022 [2 favorites]
The other thing is Gel'O Pillow Mat, a pillow filled with something which stays cooler than the air for a while, and then regenerates its coolness after you're away from it for a while. I'm not sure what the base place to order it from is.
I've been living in Philadelphia without AC, and these are the best products of the sort I've found.
There are other brands of sponges, but I haven't tried them.
My impression is that British houses don't have good climate control because there's a belief that there's something weak about wanting to be at a comfortable temperature. Yes? No? Maybe?
posted by Nancy Lebovitz at 1:49 PM on July 20, 2022 [2 favorites]
I'm pretty pro-nuclear, despite its numerous drawbacks, as long as it's well regulated and not operated by morons. I think germany made a bad mistake in rushing ahead with decomissioning its plants post-Fukushima, which is why they're now stuck with having to switch to coal of all things.
However, building new nuclear plants to tackle climate change is a mad idea. The only circumstance I can think it would make sense is if you also have a time machine and can send it back, fully built, to pop up oh, 25 years ago and displace a bunch of coal.
We need to accelerate hard on cutting emissions right damn now, not in 15 years, when sizewell-c might *actually* come online. The CO2 emissions just from all the concrete to build the damn thing will be sizeable. Plus all the issues with needing it to be well run, and what to do with the waste. Keeping existing plants running as long as they safely can to displace coal and gas; absolutely, it's way better than building more gas peaker plants.
The UK has actually been doing pretty well in getting rid of coal, and solar and wind keeps getting cheaper much faster than every prediction for it - and for what sizewell-c will cost, we could have much more renewable power, operating much, much sooner, even at current prices. Keeping the on-shore ban for wind farms - when wind is one thing the UK has plenty of - while deciding to start thinking about planning to build a super expensive nuke plant - not even using it to maintain domestic capability, but outsourcing it and saying it's your response to russian gas extortion - is just... well, it's absolutely on-brand for the current tory party of being the stupidest people in the room.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 2:10 PM on July 20, 2022 [9 favorites]
However, building new nuclear plants to tackle climate change is a mad idea. The only circumstance I can think it would make sense is if you also have a time machine and can send it back, fully built, to pop up oh, 25 years ago and displace a bunch of coal.
We need to accelerate hard on cutting emissions right damn now, not in 15 years, when sizewell-c might *actually* come online. The CO2 emissions just from all the concrete to build the damn thing will be sizeable. Plus all the issues with needing it to be well run, and what to do with the waste. Keeping existing plants running as long as they safely can to displace coal and gas; absolutely, it's way better than building more gas peaker plants.
The UK has actually been doing pretty well in getting rid of coal, and solar and wind keeps getting cheaper much faster than every prediction for it - and for what sizewell-c will cost, we could have much more renewable power, operating much, much sooner, even at current prices. Keeping the on-shore ban for wind farms - when wind is one thing the UK has plenty of - while deciding to start thinking about planning to build a super expensive nuke plant - not even using it to maintain domestic capability, but outsourcing it and saying it's your response to russian gas extortion - is just... well, it's absolutely on-brand for the current tory party of being the stupidest people in the room.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 2:10 PM on July 20, 2022 [9 favorites]
You could remove every regulatory constraint and it wouldn't make any appreciable difference in the rate of solar adoption.
Actually, there is a regulatory constraint that, if removed, could greatly speed up solar (and wind) adoption. And the federal government is, thankfully, in the process of removing it.
Briefly, there is a Carter-era law that says that if you build a renewable energy generation facility, the local grid operator is obligated to buy electricity from you. In the last decade, tons of new renewable generation capacity has been built or planned.
In fact, there's so much that it's created a huge bottleneck in actually connecting it to the grid. There's a bureaucratic process that generators and grid operators have to follow in order to tie the knot, so to speak... and it's extremely cumbersome. One applicant is considered at a time, and if the applicant needs to change their application for some reason, they go to the back of the queue.
The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission just proposed a new regulation that would allow batches of multiple generators to have their grid interconnection applications considered at once, instead of reviewed one by one. The new regulation would also let applicants preserve their place in line, even if they have to change their application for some reason.
It's extremely encouraging that the commission, made up of a mixture of Dem and GOP appointees, voted unanimously to support this new proposal. It's current in a comment period, during which the commission will gather input from industry and the public. Most likely, the final rule will be adopted later this year. Once it is, the amount of renewable power coming online each month should increase significantly. And this, in turn, will encourage developers to build more of it -- knowing that they'll get a return on their investment sooner rather than later.
posted by Artifice_Eternity at 2:17 PM on July 20, 2022 [5 favorites]
Actually, there is a regulatory constraint that, if removed, could greatly speed up solar (and wind) adoption. And the federal government is, thankfully, in the process of removing it.
Briefly, there is a Carter-era law that says that if you build a renewable energy generation facility, the local grid operator is obligated to buy electricity from you. In the last decade, tons of new renewable generation capacity has been built or planned.
In fact, there's so much that it's created a huge bottleneck in actually connecting it to the grid. There's a bureaucratic process that generators and grid operators have to follow in order to tie the knot, so to speak... and it's extremely cumbersome. One applicant is considered at a time, and if the applicant needs to change their application for some reason, they go to the back of the queue.
The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission just proposed a new regulation that would allow batches of multiple generators to have their grid interconnection applications considered at once, instead of reviewed one by one. The new regulation would also let applicants preserve their place in line, even if they have to change their application for some reason.
It's extremely encouraging that the commission, made up of a mixture of Dem and GOP appointees, voted unanimously to support this new proposal. It's current in a comment period, during which the commission will gather input from industry and the public. Most likely, the final rule will be adopted later this year. Once it is, the amount of renewable power coming online each month should increase significantly. And this, in turn, will encourage developers to build more of it -- knowing that they'll get a return on their investment sooner rather than later.
posted by Artifice_Eternity at 2:17 PM on July 20, 2022 [5 favorites]
Personally, I don't buy into the doom. Ten years ago I did, but since then the price of renewable energy has dropped to the point where only existing nuclear is cheaper and volume has increased far more rapidly than anybody expected. I only wish it had happened sooner so that we could have avoided the need for energy intensive CCS to maintain livability. Things are going to suck, but there is a light at the end of the tunnel, unlike during the "drill baby drill" years of the Bush administration. Largely thanks to investments made during the Obama years, actually, which jump started the market, though by no means exclusively. We can also thank Germany and other countries that also heavily subsidized solar and wind during that time, the combination of which got volume high enough to jump start the cycle of increased volume and reduced cost which has made the transition an inevitability.
I am also increasingly optimistic. I follow the energy industry closely in the course of my job. Most people don't understand how much renewable prices have plummeted in the past decade -- much faster than even the most optimistic forecasts predicted. And most people don't realize how far along the switchover to EVs is, with all the major car companies fully committed to it.
Obama did a lot to lay the groundwork for the energy transition. Biden is doing more -- much more. He is the most climate-responsive president we've ever had, even in spite of the obstacles constantly thrown in his path by Manchin and the GOP.
Another thing most people aren't aware of that I've been following with interest: The administration is opening up vast areas off the U.S. coast to wind power. Offshore wind leases for the New York Bight -- the area off NY and NJ -- were auctioned for billions of dollars earlier this year, bringing in much more than anybody expected. Auctions for areas off the Carolinas, in the Gulf of Mexico, and off the West Coast are in the works.
At this point, the transition to renewables is absolutely inevitable. Of course we should do everything we can to speed it up as much as we can. We won't get the best, fastest possible version of the transition, given the political realities of this country. But it's not just up to the government to force it thru at this point. The market is actually embracing it as well.
posted by Artifice_Eternity at 2:22 PM on July 20, 2022 [14 favorites]
I am also increasingly optimistic. I follow the energy industry closely in the course of my job. Most people don't understand how much renewable prices have plummeted in the past decade -- much faster than even the most optimistic forecasts predicted. And most people don't realize how far along the switchover to EVs is, with all the major car companies fully committed to it.
Obama did a lot to lay the groundwork for the energy transition. Biden is doing more -- much more. He is the most climate-responsive president we've ever had, even in spite of the obstacles constantly thrown in his path by Manchin and the GOP.
Another thing most people aren't aware of that I've been following with interest: The administration is opening up vast areas off the U.S. coast to wind power. Offshore wind leases for the New York Bight -- the area off NY and NJ -- were auctioned for billions of dollars earlier this year, bringing in much more than anybody expected. Auctions for areas off the Carolinas, in the Gulf of Mexico, and off the West Coast are in the works.
At this point, the transition to renewables is absolutely inevitable. Of course we should do everything we can to speed it up as much as we can. We won't get the best, fastest possible version of the transition, given the political realities of this country. But it's not just up to the government to force it thru at this point. The market is actually embracing it as well.
posted by Artifice_Eternity at 2:22 PM on July 20, 2022 [14 favorites]
One more optimistic thing worth nothing: Remember Obama's Clean Power Plan, which the Supreme Court just gratuitously gutted a few weeks ago, despite it not ever having come into effect? (They basically dug up its corpse in order to shoot it.)
It called for various measures to reduce CO2 emissions by the power industry. But in fact, we've already beat those targets, even without the plan ever having been approved.
posted by Artifice_Eternity at 2:26 PM on July 20, 2022 [11 favorites]
It called for various measures to reduce CO2 emissions by the power industry. But in fact, we've already beat those targets, even without the plan ever having been approved.
posted by Artifice_Eternity at 2:26 PM on July 20, 2022 [11 favorites]
Artifice_Eternity, thanks for sharing that good news. I'd be very interested if you happen to have some links to read more details. In fact, it'd probably make a good FPP.
posted by biogeo at 2:56 PM on July 20, 2022 [6 favorites]
posted by biogeo at 2:56 PM on July 20, 2022 [6 favorites]
> My impression is that British houses don't have good climate control because there's a belief that there's something weak about wanting to be at a comfortable temperature. Yes? No? Maybe?
No, or we wouldn’t have central heating either. It’s the age of the housing stock, and the cheapness of some of the more modern building. I don’t think we are more stoical about temperatures than most places.
posted by paduasoy at 3:46 PM on July 20, 2022 [5 favorites]
No, or we wouldn’t have central heating either. It’s the age of the housing stock, and the cheapness of some of the more modern building. I don’t think we are more stoical about temperatures than most places.
posted by paduasoy at 3:46 PM on July 20, 2022 [5 favorites]
It’s getting too hot to play the Steam Deck or Switch outside, makers warn
posted by meowzilla at 3:59 PM on July 20, 2022
posted by meowzilla at 3:59 PM on July 20, 2022
biogeo, that's a good idea! I don't have time to put something like that together tonight, but I'll look around in the next couple of days and see if I can find some decent links.
posted by Artifice_Eternity at 8:09 PM on July 20, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Artifice_Eternity at 8:09 PM on July 20, 2022 [1 favorite]
People thought the media's denialism in Don't Look Up! was too hyperbolic. Here we are.
This comment was on my mind when I saw this tweet: Ben Phillips : A clip from Don’t Look Up, and then a real TV interview that just happened https://t.co/CokQ5eb3sO
posted by cendawanita at 12:13 AM on July 21, 2022 [5 favorites]
This comment was on my mind when I saw this tweet: Ben Phillips : A clip from Don’t Look Up, and then a real TV interview that just happened https://t.co/CokQ5eb3sO
posted by cendawanita at 12:13 AM on July 21, 2022 [5 favorites]
I'm not sure I'd call anything on GB News a real TV interview.
posted by Grangousier at 2:37 AM on July 21, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by Grangousier at 2:37 AM on July 21, 2022 [2 favorites]
> My impression is that British houses don't have good climate control because there's a belief that there's something weak about wanting to be at a comfortable temperature. Yes? No? Maybe?
It's really hard to justify the cost and upheaval of getting air conditioning installed when there are only a few days a year when the outside temperature goes above 30C. Of course there are more days than that when A/C would be nice to have, but it's only the over-30 days (and the ones that follow them while the house slowly cools back down) where the lack of it feels like a disaster.
It's also, at least for an overthinker, a scary unknown quantity. I know what I want from gas-fired central heating: quiet boiler, programmable central thermostat, radiators in all rooms, thermostatic valves on the individual radiators. (And the ability to divide the house into zones would be fantastic, but is probably beyond my means.) I don't know what I want from air conditioning. I don't know what makes a good air conditioning system, or a bad one. I might end up spending a lot of money (and having to cope with my house being torn apart for goodness knows how long) in order to get an air conditioning system that turns out not to suit my needs, because I didn't know what those needs actually were until I had something that didn't meet them.
posted by ManyLeggedCreature at 3:26 AM on July 21, 2022 [3 favorites]
It's really hard to justify the cost and upheaval of getting air conditioning installed when there are only a few days a year when the outside temperature goes above 30C. Of course there are more days than that when A/C would be nice to have, but it's only the over-30 days (and the ones that follow them while the house slowly cools back down) where the lack of it feels like a disaster.
It's also, at least for an overthinker, a scary unknown quantity. I know what I want from gas-fired central heating: quiet boiler, programmable central thermostat, radiators in all rooms, thermostatic valves on the individual radiators. (And the ability to divide the house into zones would be fantastic, but is probably beyond my means.) I don't know what I want from air conditioning. I don't know what makes a good air conditioning system, or a bad one. I might end up spending a lot of money (and having to cope with my house being torn apart for goodness knows how long) in order to get an air conditioning system that turns out not to suit my needs, because I didn't know what those needs actually were until I had something that didn't meet them.
posted by ManyLeggedCreature at 3:26 AM on July 21, 2022 [3 favorites]
I'm not sure I'd call anything on GB News a real TV interview.
It's got real people watching them, much like Fox, no?
I don't know what makes a good air conditioning system, or a bad one.
My country isn't designed with central air systems thinking the way I understand Americans are but from the humid tropics if you'd like to know at least our rules of thumb these days:
- option 1: split air conditioning units (meaning condenser/heat sink portion is outside the house): this gives you room-specific options.
- option 2: i'm aware the UK isn't as humid as the tropics so evaporative air coolers/chillers might actually work for you. This will also give you room-specific cooling. There're models now that clearly uses refrigerants in addition to water to cool the air iirc, the upshot is I've not found them blowing out hot air at the back where the cooling is happening.
For split a/c units:
- ALWAYS PICK THE MODELS WITH INVERTERS. Your power bill will thank you.
- google for what horsepower is sufficient for your room size. that's the basic unit of strength people will search for.
Modern models now come with various air purification options, usually ionic. You might find it persuasive but probably optional.
- R32 or R290 refrigerants for low-emissions options and i believe the second is more conventional in Europe now.
But all you need to know: room size for horsepower and get the inverter ones! They usually have an energy efficiency rating (maxing at 5 stars, locally).
posted by cendawanita at 4:16 AM on July 21, 2022 [2 favorites]
It's got real people watching them, much like Fox, no?
I don't know what makes a good air conditioning system, or a bad one.
My country isn't designed with central air systems thinking the way I understand Americans are but from the humid tropics if you'd like to know at least our rules of thumb these days:
- option 1: split air conditioning units (meaning condenser/heat sink portion is outside the house): this gives you room-specific options.
- option 2: i'm aware the UK isn't as humid as the tropics so evaporative air coolers/chillers might actually work for you. This will also give you room-specific cooling. There're models now that clearly uses refrigerants in addition to water to cool the air iirc, the upshot is I've not found them blowing out hot air at the back where the cooling is happening.
For split a/c units:
- ALWAYS PICK THE MODELS WITH INVERTERS. Your power bill will thank you.
- google for what horsepower is sufficient for your room size. that's the basic unit of strength people will search for.
Modern models now come with various air purification options, usually ionic. You might find it persuasive but probably optional.
- R32 or R290 refrigerants for low-emissions options and i believe the second is more conventional in Europe now.
But all you need to know: room size for horsepower and get the inverter ones! They usually have an energy efficiency rating (maxing at 5 stars, locally).
posted by cendawanita at 4:16 AM on July 21, 2022 [2 favorites]
Reading more closely, i can at least assure you, if you're exploring split units, it doesn't even take half a day to set it up. Here's what the technicians need to do:
- drill through the wall to connect the copper tubing.
- set up the metal bracket housing for the condenser section on the outside part of the wall.
- connect the power to the existing power wiring, usually the nearest outlet. (Malaysia and the UK has the same 3-pin and voltage system). Add the casing for the wires if they're good and conscientious technicians.
- affix the AC unit to the wall. A height of 8ft and higher, clearing any curtain rails etc, is common.
Modern models also have some kind of self-cleaning mode but the usual manual maintenance is really clearing out the dust filter for the indoors unit (just water) and the occasional topping up of the refrigerant (you'll need to call for servicing).
I wish you guys in the UK and Europe all the best, i never could manage to enjoy summers there because of that cultural lack of even standing fans on standby. And speaking of cultural prejudices, i will definitely NOT recommend households to commit to central air. Changing technology, humidity issues, etc. Split units or air chillers gives you more versatility.
posted by cendawanita at 4:26 AM on July 21, 2022 [4 favorites]
- drill through the wall to connect the copper tubing.
- set up the metal bracket housing for the condenser section on the outside part of the wall.
- connect the power to the existing power wiring, usually the nearest outlet. (Malaysia and the UK has the same 3-pin and voltage system). Add the casing for the wires if they're good and conscientious technicians.
- affix the AC unit to the wall. A height of 8ft and higher, clearing any curtain rails etc, is common.
Modern models also have some kind of self-cleaning mode but the usual manual maintenance is really clearing out the dust filter for the indoors unit (just water) and the occasional topping up of the refrigerant (you'll need to call for servicing).
I wish you guys in the UK and Europe all the best, i never could manage to enjoy summers there because of that cultural lack of even standing fans on standby. And speaking of cultural prejudices, i will definitely NOT recommend households to commit to central air. Changing technology, humidity issues, etc. Split units or air chillers gives you more versatility.
posted by cendawanita at 4:26 AM on July 21, 2022 [4 favorites]
It's really hard to justify the cost and upheaval of getting air conditioning installed when there are only a few days a year when the outside temperature goes above 30C. Of course there are more days than that when A/C would be nice to have, but it's only the over-30 days (and the ones that follow them while the house slowly cools back down) where the lack of it feels like a disaster.
That's... pretty much the exact situation we are in, over in Australia (Melbourne).
I use AC for heating and cooling, and I only use cooling for 5-10 days a year at most, despite us having 40°C degree weather on the regular.
The AC is mainly for heating... I basically turn on the AC heating in April and only turn it off in November, it's running 24/7. Last night it was -2°C but my bedroom / study was kept at a constant 23°C at a cost of 350 watts... which is about 6 cents per hour.
But yes, AC is great for 5 hot days a year I really appreciate it, but it really pays back in cheap heating.
posted by xdvesper at 6:10 AM on July 21, 2022 [2 favorites]
That's... pretty much the exact situation we are in, over in Australia (Melbourne).
I use AC for heating and cooling, and I only use cooling for 5-10 days a year at most, despite us having 40°C degree weather on the regular.
The AC is mainly for heating... I basically turn on the AC heating in April and only turn it off in November, it's running 24/7. Last night it was -2°C but my bedroom / study was kept at a constant 23°C at a cost of 350 watts... which is about 6 cents per hour.
But yes, AC is great for 5 hot days a year I really appreciate it, but it really pays back in cheap heating.
posted by xdvesper at 6:10 AM on July 21, 2022 [2 favorites]
The AC is mainly for heating...
My impression is that most North American AC systems are set up to do only cooling, with heating handled by dedicated heaters (electric or gas). I was surprised to learn just a few years ago that the heat pump principle of AC could be used both ways; I'm not sure how often it can be done in practise with actually-installed AC systems here.
posted by clawsoon at 6:39 AM on July 21, 2022 [1 favorite]
My impression is that most North American AC systems are set up to do only cooling, with heating handled by dedicated heaters (electric or gas). I was surprised to learn just a few years ago that the heat pump principle of AC could be used both ways; I'm not sure how often it can be done in practise with actually-installed AC systems here.
posted by clawsoon at 6:39 AM on July 21, 2022 [1 favorite]
'm not sure I'd call anything on GB News a real TV interview.
It's got real people watching them, much like Fox, no?
And sometimes its enough to show up on the viewing figures.
I think the likeliest option for A/C penetrating the UK household market will be if the heat pump expansion takes off. Its pretty straightforward to install units that can run in reverse for cooling and in the case of ground source, these can improve heating efficiency in the winter if used for A/C. Obviously this has an impact on total electrical demand over the year, but AC will tend to fit better with growth in PV generation. The UK has a policy goal to install 600,000 heat pumps per year, by 2028. If that happens (and its a big if given how little has been done since it was announced) then we might start to see a shift in UK behaviour.
posted by biffa at 7:56 AM on July 21, 2022 [4 favorites]
It's got real people watching them, much like Fox, no?
And sometimes its enough to show up on the viewing figures.
I think the likeliest option for A/C penetrating the UK household market will be if the heat pump expansion takes off. Its pretty straightforward to install units that can run in reverse for cooling and in the case of ground source, these can improve heating efficiency in the winter if used for A/C. Obviously this has an impact on total electrical demand over the year, but AC will tend to fit better with growth in PV generation. The UK has a policy goal to install 600,000 heat pumps per year, by 2028. If that happens (and its a big if given how little has been done since it was announced) then we might start to see a shift in UK behaviour.
posted by biffa at 7:56 AM on July 21, 2022 [4 favorites]
Technology connections on heat pumps. (this guy's great; a whole bunch of previouslies)
posted by condour75 at 11:18 AM on July 21, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by condour75 at 11:18 AM on July 21, 2022 [1 favorite]
My impression is that most North American AC systems are set up to do only cooling
It is fair to say that the vast majority of people with AC don't have heat pumps, yes. However, they have been a thing for over 40 years now. I once lived in a cheap-ass apartment built in 1986 that had a heat pump. I have since been baffled that it's as rare as it is. At worst, you use the backup heat and you're just no better off than you are with a regular furnace. Even that ancient machine did a fine job keeping the place warm without the resistance heat until somewhere below 25F.
posted by wierdo at 7:41 PM on July 21, 2022 [1 favorite]
It is fair to say that the vast majority of people with AC don't have heat pumps, yes. However, they have been a thing for over 40 years now. I once lived in a cheap-ass apartment built in 1986 that had a heat pump. I have since been baffled that it's as rare as it is. At worst, you use the backup heat and you're just no better off than you are with a regular furnace. Even that ancient machine did a fine job keeping the place warm without the resistance heat until somewhere below 25F.
posted by wierdo at 7:41 PM on July 21, 2022 [1 favorite]
This tangent made me curious to check on the models available here. Unsurprisingly ours are only for cooling. HOWEVER, the same product ranges absolutely does have heating as well and available in temperate weather markets (I saw Australia's and Canada's listings). FWIW the market term i found that helped my search is "reverse cycle a/c".
posted by cendawanita at 11:48 PM on July 21, 2022
posted by cendawanita at 11:48 PM on July 21, 2022
It's not just convenient - a single appliance in the home that takes care of heating AND cooling - but it's also extremely cheap and efficient.
The one I use has a Coefficient of Performance of 5.7, which means even though it uses just 300 watts of input electricity, it's generating 1710 watts of heating.
A normal electric resistance heater generates 300 watts of heat using 300 watts of input electricity...
It's even more efficient and cheaper than using gas heating directly. Like, instead of burning gas for heat, you burned the gas in a power plant - which is 42% efficient at turning gas into electricity - then used that electricity at a COP of 5.7 to run a reverse cycle AC unit, you're actually generating over twice as much heat as just burning the gas directly.
Not to mention the methane leaks from the miles of natural gas pipes in the ground and in your home - methane is over 80x more damaging than CO2 in terms of global warming. (Three quarters of home methane emissions occur when the stove is off). And a separate study found that children in homes with gas stoves are 42 percent more likely to have asthma than children whose families use electric stoves because of relatively high levels of nitrogen dioxide.
The one I have easily holds a 25°C temperature difference in both directions - maintaining 23°C to 27°C indoors whether it's freezing -2°C or burning 45°C outside, though I suspect that also has to do with the amount of insulation in the building.
posted by xdvesper at 12:03 AM on July 22, 2022 [4 favorites]
The one I use has a Coefficient of Performance of 5.7, which means even though it uses just 300 watts of input electricity, it's generating 1710 watts of heating.
A normal electric resistance heater generates 300 watts of heat using 300 watts of input electricity...
It's even more efficient and cheaper than using gas heating directly. Like, instead of burning gas for heat, you burned the gas in a power plant - which is 42% efficient at turning gas into electricity - then used that electricity at a COP of 5.7 to run a reverse cycle AC unit, you're actually generating over twice as much heat as just burning the gas directly.
Not to mention the methane leaks from the miles of natural gas pipes in the ground and in your home - methane is over 80x more damaging than CO2 in terms of global warming. (Three quarters of home methane emissions occur when the stove is off). And a separate study found that children in homes with gas stoves are 42 percent more likely to have asthma than children whose families use electric stoves because of relatively high levels of nitrogen dioxide.
The one I have easily holds a 25°C temperature difference in both directions - maintaining 23°C to 27°C indoors whether it's freezing -2°C or burning 45°C outside, though I suspect that also has to do with the amount of insulation in the building.
posted by xdvesper at 12:03 AM on July 22, 2022 [4 favorites]
I once lived in a cheap-ass apartment built in 1986 that had a heat pump. I have since been baffled that it's as rare as it is. At worst, you use the backup heat and you're just no better off than you are with a regular furnace.
They've been common in the American south for donkey's years. SUPPOSEDLY the reason they haven't taken off in yankeeland is that until recently they didn't perform well below, depending on the model/kind, 40 to 25F, and lots of the north gets colder than that for months on end. To this day if you bring up heat pumps you'll see people in yankeeland moaning how they don't work up here even though nowadays they work fine down to 0F or beyond.
I don't really get this. At least around here in metro Buffalo, lots of homes back to the 1940s are heated with gas-fired hot air, so there are ducts everywhere. And a fair number of those homes retrofitted a/c at some point. But they seem to just have air conditioning and gas heat instead of a heat pump with gas backup, which... why? Is a heat pump that much more to install than a strictly a/c unit? Does wiring up a thermostat that switches between them cost so much? Around here it just seems like a no-brainer to have the heat pump working when it's cool/cold but not Deep Winter, which might be five or six months.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 3:59 AM on July 22, 2022 [2 favorites]
They've been common in the American south for donkey's years. SUPPOSEDLY the reason they haven't taken off in yankeeland is that until recently they didn't perform well below, depending on the model/kind, 40 to 25F, and lots of the north gets colder than that for months on end. To this day if you bring up heat pumps you'll see people in yankeeland moaning how they don't work up here even though nowadays they work fine down to 0F or beyond.
I don't really get this. At least around here in metro Buffalo, lots of homes back to the 1940s are heated with gas-fired hot air, so there are ducts everywhere. And a fair number of those homes retrofitted a/c at some point. But they seem to just have air conditioning and gas heat instead of a heat pump with gas backup, which... why? Is a heat pump that much more to install than a strictly a/c unit? Does wiring up a thermostat that switches between them cost so much? Around here it just seems like a no-brainer to have the heat pump working when it's cool/cold but not Deep Winter, which might be five or six months.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 3:59 AM on July 22, 2022 [2 favorites]
They've been common in the American south for donkey's years. SUPPOSEDLY the reason they haven't taken off in yankeeland is that until recently they didn't perform well below,
Anecdotally, my friend's condo in Beverly, MA has a heat pump.
posted by mikelieman at 5:05 AM on July 22, 2022
Anecdotally, my friend's condo in Beverly, MA has a heat pump.
posted by mikelieman at 5:05 AM on July 22, 2022
It's also, at least for an overthinker, a scary unknown quantity. I know what I want from gas-fired central heating: quiet boiler, programmable central thermostat, radiators in all rooms, thermostatic valves on the individual radiators. (And the ability to divide the house into zones would be fantastic, but is probably beyond my means.) I don't know what I want from air conditioning. I don't know what makes a good air conditioning system, or a bad one. I might end up spending a lot of money (and having to cope with my house being torn apart for goodness knows how long) in order to get an air conditioning system that turns out not to suit my needs, because I didn't know what those needs actually were until I had something that didn't meet them.
So I was a heating systems conference recently (that's just the kind of rock and roll lifestyle I lead, deal with it) and someone made the observation that the problem with air source heat pumps is that people don't understand them. My response to that is that people don't really understand gas boiler systems either, they're just familiar with them. People often think they want zone control for their home heating, i.e. the ability to keep different parts of their house at different temperatures dynamically, mostly it doesn't work very well because all the insulation is on the outside. So keeping some rooms much cooler than others sets up drafts and forces radiators in the rest of the house to output more heat. TRVs are a bit different in that they work best to compensate for changes in solar heating to different rooms at different times (but work most efficiently when that room is set at a temperature not so different from the rest of the house). Zoning works a little better if you have a very tall house and specifically want higher floors to be cooler but there's not much that you can do with zoning that TRVs can't do.
The thing you left off your list, nor surprisingly since most UK heating systems don't have it, is temperature and load compensation which keeps the circulating temperature of the water at the most efficient temperature to maintain the target internal temperature. This allows the "condensing" boiler to actually condense and can get you an extra 10% efficiency. During the coldest hours of the coldest days, the radiators will still be at their current high temperature but during milder days, the radiators are cooler as the heat input required is less. The alternative, and the way that most UK boilers are setup, is to run the boiler and radiators in brief pulses on these mild days but this will never let the water be cool enough to condense the steam out of the gas exhaust (aka the condensing boiler) which means you get another 10% of your heat going bye bye out the chimney. This also reduces boiler lifetime substantially. (although reduces is maybe the wrong word since basically all UK boilers are installed in this way - maybe I should say that a proper temperature compensated system will increase boiler lifetime).
The thing is that the failure mode of a combi gas boiler running radiators, i.e. what everyone in the UK is more or less used to, is a system that is 10% less efficient than it should be, oversized, and won't last as long as it could. The failure mode of an improperly sized air source heat pump system is under-heating on the coldest days, and obviously one of those is much more obvious to the average punter than the other. How many people reading this know the Heat Loss Coefficient or Heat Loss Parameter of their house? How would you even go about calculating what your gas bill "should be"?
The one I use has a Coefficient of Performance of 5.7, which means even though it uses just 300 watts of input electricity, it's generating 1710 watts of heating.
All heat pumps have an instantaneous CoP which depend on the efficiency of the unit, the input temperature of the air or ground, and the output temperature of the air or water. The greater the difference between the source and sink temperatures, the less efficient they are. So that means two things:
1) It is important for heating systems with radiator loops to keep their temperatures as low as possible. How low you can go depends on how well insulated the property is and how cold it is outside (together these give you the amount of heat output) and the surface area of heating system. So a well insulated property on a mild day needs little heat and if you have floor heating, you can use 30C water no problem to supply it. A poorly insulated property on a cold day needs a lot of heat and if you only have little radiators designed for 80C water, they will be undersized at lower flow temperatures. Heat pump systems also have maximum temperatures which depend on their refrigerant, for most domestic systems that is 55C. So if you reach a point where you would need water > 55C to maintain target temperature, the system won't keep up and it will be colder than desired.
2) Systems are less efficient on the coldest days (and air conditioners are less efficient on the hottest days) in both cases exacerbating stress on the electricity system.
System efficiency is usually expressed on a seasonally adjusted basis (SCOP, SFP, and SEER all try and do it this for different systems in different ways) to reflect the average system performance. Since systems use most energy during their least efficient times, these are usually around 250% for an air source hydronic system in the UK or 350%+ for a ground source system (the ground doesn't get as cold so they perform better on cold days).
If your system is performing at 5.7x over the course of the year, you must have an exceptionally good setup.
Note that technically all air conditioners are air-air heat pumps but I accept that in marketing world "heat pump" means that it's used for heating. The capability to produce heat rather than cooling (or cooling rather than heating) is just the additional of a single reversing valve, although in practice a system optimised for one direction rather than the other will perform less well "in reverse".
In the UK, most heat pumps are installed driving hydronic/radiator systems and are air-water. These can (technically) be run in cooling mode *if* they have the right valve and have a controller modification installed. However nobody does that because:
a) if you got a subsidy for the installation, it was through a scheme intended to replace your gas boiler and these systems are not permitted to be installed with a cooling capability
b) radiator pipes within the conditioned space of the house (inside the insulation) have not historically been insulated and the requirement that they are is new (and in my view unnecessary) so you will have condensation problems inside the walls.
c) there are systems which are floor heating / cooling which I've seen in Spain, however these have sophisticated control systems and humidity sensors to prevent formation of condensation on the floor which would be sad times. Spain is often very dry (the systems I saw were in Madrid which is dry, dry, dry when it's hot). In humid climates, this system would refuse to cool on many days to avoid condensation.
d) for physics reasons, this isn't really great because the cold air pools near the floor.
UK houses already have pipes and radiators so refitting for ducted heating and cooling just isn't going to happen.
Personally, I'm going for a multi-split system. I'd love an external unit that used commercial VRF configuration to drive my internal heads for both heating and cooling as well as my radiators and hot water heating. It's technically possible but not available at the residential scale.
Sizewell C: 3.2GW for £20bn. That's £6 per watt even before the construction cost blows out by a factor of two to three, which it almost certainly will, and the watts won't turn up for at least ten years, and that's only the construction cost so it doesn't even cover operating costs or decommissioning.
It won't be 2x or 3x, nuclear plants aren't magically over-budget, that happens because of ridiculously optimistic forecasts. SZC will almost certainly cost about £25bn to £30bn to build which is plenty. Note that the catalogue-of-errors that was Flamanville will probably end up costing about EUR15bn for a single reactor. That is a ridiculous multiple of the original forecast but it's not like the cost will always be higher regardless of what the budget is - the more realistic the budget is, the less likely it will cost more.
posted by atrazine at 5:14 AM on July 22, 2022 [5 favorites]
So I was a heating systems conference recently (that's just the kind of rock and roll lifestyle I lead, deal with it) and someone made the observation that the problem with air source heat pumps is that people don't understand them. My response to that is that people don't really understand gas boiler systems either, they're just familiar with them. People often think they want zone control for their home heating, i.e. the ability to keep different parts of their house at different temperatures dynamically, mostly it doesn't work very well because all the insulation is on the outside. So keeping some rooms much cooler than others sets up drafts and forces radiators in the rest of the house to output more heat. TRVs are a bit different in that they work best to compensate for changes in solar heating to different rooms at different times (but work most efficiently when that room is set at a temperature not so different from the rest of the house). Zoning works a little better if you have a very tall house and specifically want higher floors to be cooler but there's not much that you can do with zoning that TRVs can't do.
The thing you left off your list, nor surprisingly since most UK heating systems don't have it, is temperature and load compensation which keeps the circulating temperature of the water at the most efficient temperature to maintain the target internal temperature. This allows the "condensing" boiler to actually condense and can get you an extra 10% efficiency. During the coldest hours of the coldest days, the radiators will still be at their current high temperature but during milder days, the radiators are cooler as the heat input required is less. The alternative, and the way that most UK boilers are setup, is to run the boiler and radiators in brief pulses on these mild days but this will never let the water be cool enough to condense the steam out of the gas exhaust (aka the condensing boiler) which means you get another 10% of your heat going bye bye out the chimney. This also reduces boiler lifetime substantially. (although reduces is maybe the wrong word since basically all UK boilers are installed in this way - maybe I should say that a proper temperature compensated system will increase boiler lifetime).
The thing is that the failure mode of a combi gas boiler running radiators, i.e. what everyone in the UK is more or less used to, is a system that is 10% less efficient than it should be, oversized, and won't last as long as it could. The failure mode of an improperly sized air source heat pump system is under-heating on the coldest days, and obviously one of those is much more obvious to the average punter than the other. How many people reading this know the Heat Loss Coefficient or Heat Loss Parameter of their house? How would you even go about calculating what your gas bill "should be"?
The one I use has a Coefficient of Performance of 5.7, which means even though it uses just 300 watts of input electricity, it's generating 1710 watts of heating.
All heat pumps have an instantaneous CoP which depend on the efficiency of the unit, the input temperature of the air or ground, and the output temperature of the air or water. The greater the difference between the source and sink temperatures, the less efficient they are. So that means two things:
1) It is important for heating systems with radiator loops to keep their temperatures as low as possible. How low you can go depends on how well insulated the property is and how cold it is outside (together these give you the amount of heat output) and the surface area of heating system. So a well insulated property on a mild day needs little heat and if you have floor heating, you can use 30C water no problem to supply it. A poorly insulated property on a cold day needs a lot of heat and if you only have little radiators designed for 80C water, they will be undersized at lower flow temperatures. Heat pump systems also have maximum temperatures which depend on their refrigerant, for most domestic systems that is 55C. So if you reach a point where you would need water > 55C to maintain target temperature, the system won't keep up and it will be colder than desired.
2) Systems are less efficient on the coldest days (and air conditioners are less efficient on the hottest days) in both cases exacerbating stress on the electricity system.
System efficiency is usually expressed on a seasonally adjusted basis (SCOP, SFP, and SEER all try and do it this for different systems in different ways) to reflect the average system performance. Since systems use most energy during their least efficient times, these are usually around 250% for an air source hydronic system in the UK or 350%+ for a ground source system (the ground doesn't get as cold so they perform better on cold days).
If your system is performing at 5.7x over the course of the year, you must have an exceptionally good setup.
Note that technically all air conditioners are air-air heat pumps but I accept that in marketing world "heat pump" means that it's used for heating. The capability to produce heat rather than cooling (or cooling rather than heating) is just the additional of a single reversing valve, although in practice a system optimised for one direction rather than the other will perform less well "in reverse".
In the UK, most heat pumps are installed driving hydronic/radiator systems and are air-water. These can (technically) be run in cooling mode *if* they have the right valve and have a controller modification installed. However nobody does that because:
a) if you got a subsidy for the installation, it was through a scheme intended to replace your gas boiler and these systems are not permitted to be installed with a cooling capability
b) radiator pipes within the conditioned space of the house (inside the insulation) have not historically been insulated and the requirement that they are is new (and in my view unnecessary) so you will have condensation problems inside the walls.
c) there are systems which are floor heating / cooling which I've seen in Spain, however these have sophisticated control systems and humidity sensors to prevent formation of condensation on the floor which would be sad times. Spain is often very dry (the systems I saw were in Madrid which is dry, dry, dry when it's hot). In humid climates, this system would refuse to cool on many days to avoid condensation.
d) for physics reasons, this isn't really great because the cold air pools near the floor.
UK houses already have pipes and radiators so refitting for ducted heating and cooling just isn't going to happen.
Personally, I'm going for a multi-split system. I'd love an external unit that used commercial VRF configuration to drive my internal heads for both heating and cooling as well as my radiators and hot water heating. It's technically possible but not available at the residential scale.
Sizewell C: 3.2GW for £20bn. That's £6 per watt even before the construction cost blows out by a factor of two to three, which it almost certainly will, and the watts won't turn up for at least ten years, and that's only the construction cost so it doesn't even cover operating costs or decommissioning.
It won't be 2x or 3x, nuclear plants aren't magically over-budget, that happens because of ridiculously optimistic forecasts. SZC will almost certainly cost about £25bn to £30bn to build which is plenty. Note that the catalogue-of-errors that was Flamanville will probably end up costing about EUR15bn for a single reactor. That is a ridiculous multiple of the original forecast but it's not like the cost will always be higher regardless of what the budget is - the more realistic the budget is, the less likely it will cost more.
posted by atrazine at 5:14 AM on July 22, 2022 [5 favorites]
Zoning works a little better if you have a very tall house and specifically want higher floors to be cooler
That's exactly what I want, as it happens - I have only two floors, but they're both tall, plus the layout is very weird, and upstairs is always several degrees hotter than downstairs. I'd been thinking that zones would let me run the radiators downstairs of an evening without turning the upstairs ones on, and without having to go and fiddle with six radiator valves every time. Thinking about it now though, I wonder if all that would happen is that the heat would rise faster.
Anyway, fantastic comment, thanks! I've actually bookmarked this thread in my browser; between you and cendawanita, there's lots here I'm going to want to refer back to as I try to figure out how to survive the climate disaster in a Victorian house in a conservation area. (Wish me luck.)
posted by ManyLeggedCreature at 6:59 AM on July 22, 2022 [2 favorites]
That's exactly what I want, as it happens - I have only two floors, but they're both tall, plus the layout is very weird, and upstairs is always several degrees hotter than downstairs. I'd been thinking that zones would let me run the radiators downstairs of an evening without turning the upstairs ones on, and without having to go and fiddle with six radiator valves every time. Thinking about it now though, I wonder if all that would happen is that the heat would rise faster.
Anyway, fantastic comment, thanks! I've actually bookmarked this thread in my browser; between you and cendawanita, there's lots here I'm going to want to refer back to as I try to figure out how to survive the climate disaster in a Victorian house in a conservation area. (Wish me luck.)
posted by ManyLeggedCreature at 6:59 AM on July 22, 2022 [2 favorites]
nuclear plants aren't magically over-budget
Agreed. Merely historically and consistently.
posted by flabdablet at 8:21 AM on July 22, 2022 [2 favorites]
Agreed. Merely historically and consistently.
posted by flabdablet at 8:21 AM on July 22, 2022 [2 favorites]
Although yes, 2-3x is probably a little hyperbolic. Would not be at all surprised to see 1.5-2x though. Also note that I did not include any such blowout in the cost comparison above, which takes the projected project cost at face value.
posted by flabdablet at 8:29 AM on July 22, 2022
posted by flabdablet at 8:29 AM on July 22, 2022
If your system is performing at 5.7x over the course of the year, you must have an exceptionally good setup.
Thanks for the detailed explanation!
This Mitsubishi Heavy Industries unit is typical of what we use here, with a COP of 5.7 for the smallest unit (2.7kW heating) which supplies enough heat for a small living space in a well insulated home. In theory the max power draw is 1.4kW but my energy meter reports the usual power draw is about 200 watts, rising to about 400 watts when the temperature drops below 0°C.
In Australia, heating COP is rated at a fixed outside temperature of 7°C. In Melbourne, in the coldest month of the year, the daily mean is 10°C and mean daily low is 6°C, so I can see how 7°C was picked. (Sydney is typically 3°C warmer). I guess instead of a "seasonally adjusted performance" they just picked, hey here's the daily low in winter, so it's a conservative estimate?
My fantasy product has always been something like what Elon Musk came up with - the octovalve. Would it be possible for a single heat pump to coordinate all the heating and cooling needs in the house. Eg in summer, the heat pump heats your hot water tank and dumps the cool air into your living room if you need it instead of just exhausting it into the environment and wasting it.
posted by xdvesper at 8:50 AM on July 22, 2022 [1 favorite]
Thanks for the detailed explanation!
This Mitsubishi Heavy Industries unit is typical of what we use here, with a COP of 5.7 for the smallest unit (2.7kW heating) which supplies enough heat for a small living space in a well insulated home. In theory the max power draw is 1.4kW but my energy meter reports the usual power draw is about 200 watts, rising to about 400 watts when the temperature drops below 0°C.
In Australia, heating COP is rated at a fixed outside temperature of 7°C. In Melbourne, in the coldest month of the year, the daily mean is 10°C and mean daily low is 6°C, so I can see how 7°C was picked. (Sydney is typically 3°C warmer). I guess instead of a "seasonally adjusted performance" they just picked, hey here's the daily low in winter, so it's a conservative estimate?
My fantasy product has always been something like what Elon Musk came up with - the octovalve. Would it be possible for a single heat pump to coordinate all the heating and cooling needs in the house. Eg in summer, the heat pump heats your hot water tank and dumps the cool air into your living room if you need it instead of just exhausting it into the environment and wasting it.
posted by xdvesper at 8:50 AM on July 22, 2022 [1 favorite]
Although yes, 2-3x is probably a little hyperbolic
Olkiluoto 3 was contracted at €3bn and is currently at €8.5bn, so within the 2-3x range. Flamanville 3 was estimated at €3.3bn but is currently looking like €19.1bn, so worse than 3x. What this has taught the sector is to start higher, Hinkley Point C has only gone up by 50% to get to the currently expected £25bn, though it is early days and commissioning isn't expected till 2027, ten years after the initial target date. The cost to consumers over the lifetime will be around £50bn.
posted by biffa at 9:20 AM on July 22, 2022
Olkiluoto 3 was contracted at €3bn and is currently at €8.5bn, so within the 2-3x range. Flamanville 3 was estimated at €3.3bn but is currently looking like €19.1bn, so worse than 3x. What this has taught the sector is to start higher, Hinkley Point C has only gone up by 50% to get to the currently expected £25bn, though it is early days and commissioning isn't expected till 2027, ten years after the initial target date. The cost to consumers over the lifetime will be around £50bn.
posted by biffa at 9:20 AM on July 22, 2022
And of course the £20bn estimate exists mainly to secure the approval of what is currently the world's collectively stupidest Government, so there's that.
posted by flabdablet at 9:25 AM on July 22, 2022
posted by flabdablet at 9:25 AM on July 22, 2022
Eg in summer, the heat pump heats your hot water tank and dumps the cool air into your living room if you need it instead of just exhausting it into the environment and wasting it.
I've had similar engineering dreams, but I'm not sure that the extra system complexity could actually be made to pay for itself.
As pointed out above, a heat pump's CoP worsens as the difference between hot-side and cold-side temperature increases. So if you've got a single heat pump moving enough thermal energy to cool a living space substantially below ambient while raising a tank of hot water substantially above, it's going to end up working against a steep temperature gradient to do that and its CoP will suffer accordingly.
So I'd want to see actual calculations to be convinced that doing things that way would actually require less electrical energy than using separate, ambient-referenced heat pumps for the heating and cooling tasks.
What I think could still be interesting is an arrangement with multiple heat pumps and two large, insulated thermal reservoirs: underground water tanks would be ideal. One of the thermal reservoirs would be kept cool, and the other kept hot.
Any time heating was required, the cool side of the heat pump being used for that would be referenced to either the hot reservoir or ambient, whichever was currently hotter. Likewise, any time cooling was required - for a freezer or refrigerator cabinet or room air conditioning - the hot side of the heat pump doing that work would be referenced to either the cold reservoir or ambient, whichever was cooler. And any time there were lots of renewables feeding the grid and/or lots of sunshine on the roof so that electricity was crazy cheap, a dedicated high-capacity heat pump would suck down relatively large amounts of it to pump thermal energy directly from the cool reservoir to the hot one.
That way, the end-use heat pumps would always achieve the best CoP they possibly could; in the ideal case where the reference reservoir temperature was close to or even past the desired output temperature it should be possible to get some quite extreme end-use CoPs and deliver substantial heat or cooling on a tiny sniff of power.
Meanwhile, the inter-reservoir pump's degrading CoP as the cool reservoir got very cold while the hot one got very hot would not translate to a big energy bill because the inter-reservoir pump would only ever be run at times when energy was stupid cheap. Widespread adoption of such systems should also peak-shave the grid quite effectively.
posted by flabdablet at 10:11 AM on July 22, 2022 [1 favorite]
I've had similar engineering dreams, but I'm not sure that the extra system complexity could actually be made to pay for itself.
As pointed out above, a heat pump's CoP worsens as the difference between hot-side and cold-side temperature increases. So if you've got a single heat pump moving enough thermal energy to cool a living space substantially below ambient while raising a tank of hot water substantially above, it's going to end up working against a steep temperature gradient to do that and its CoP will suffer accordingly.
So I'd want to see actual calculations to be convinced that doing things that way would actually require less electrical energy than using separate, ambient-referenced heat pumps for the heating and cooling tasks.
What I think could still be interesting is an arrangement with multiple heat pumps and two large, insulated thermal reservoirs: underground water tanks would be ideal. One of the thermal reservoirs would be kept cool, and the other kept hot.
Any time heating was required, the cool side of the heat pump being used for that would be referenced to either the hot reservoir or ambient, whichever was currently hotter. Likewise, any time cooling was required - for a freezer or refrigerator cabinet or room air conditioning - the hot side of the heat pump doing that work would be referenced to either the cold reservoir or ambient, whichever was cooler. And any time there were lots of renewables feeding the grid and/or lots of sunshine on the roof so that electricity was crazy cheap, a dedicated high-capacity heat pump would suck down relatively large amounts of it to pump thermal energy directly from the cool reservoir to the hot one.
That way, the end-use heat pumps would always achieve the best CoP they possibly could; in the ideal case where the reference reservoir temperature was close to or even past the desired output temperature it should be possible to get some quite extreme end-use CoPs and deliver substantial heat or cooling on a tiny sniff of power.
Meanwhile, the inter-reservoir pump's degrading CoP as the cool reservoir got very cold while the hot one got very hot would not translate to a big energy bill because the inter-reservoir pump would only ever be run at times when energy was stupid cheap. Widespread adoption of such systems should also peak-shave the grid quite effectively.
posted by flabdablet at 10:11 AM on July 22, 2022 [1 favorite]
Oh, and the inter-reservoir pump would be set up to stop when either the cool reservoir got to near-freezing or the hot one got to near-boiling. Which of these limits got hit first on any given day would depend on whether aggregate demand for cooling or heating had recently been greater, which would vary with the seasons.
For really hot climates where cooling demand was dominant, it might even be possible to design the cool reservoir in such a way as to allow ice to form inside it without clogging the heat exchangers, yielding massive storage capacity from phase change and simply absurd CoP from the end-use cool-delivery heat pumps, which would have a consistent 0°C hot-side reference to work against for extended periods. But simply making the cool tank much bigger would probably work almost as well and cost a lot less.
posted by flabdablet at 10:24 AM on July 22, 2022 [1 favorite]
For really hot climates where cooling demand was dominant, it might even be possible to design the cool reservoir in such a way as to allow ice to form inside it without clogging the heat exchangers, yielding massive storage capacity from phase change and simply absurd CoP from the end-use cool-delivery heat pumps, which would have a consistent 0°C hot-side reference to work against for extended periods. But simply making the cool tank much bigger would probably work almost as well and cost a lot less.
posted by flabdablet at 10:24 AM on July 22, 2022 [1 favorite]
flabdablet, this is also how ambient loop district heating/cooling systems work. They circulate a fluid around the neighborhood, slightly above ambient temperature in the winter and slightly below in the summer and then heating and cooling systems use it as a heat source or dump.
Olkiluoto 3 was contracted at €3bn and is currently at €8.5bn, so within the 2-3x range. Flamanville 3 was estimated at €3.3bn but is currently looking like €19.1bn, so worse than 3x. What this has taught the sector is to start higher, Hinkley Point C has only gone up by 50% to get to the currently expected £25bn, though it is early days and commissioning isn't expected till 2027, ten years after the initial target date. The cost to consumers over the lifetime will be around £50bn.
OL3 is now basically operational though so if we put that at 9bn all-up for a single unit, FL3 has spent more than 12bn (but EDF accounting...) which I why I estimated 15bn to finish it. 19 isn't impossible, I think that comes from a French government audit of possible worst case as I've seen the number before. If you ever want to read documents about construction that make you involuntarily say, "yo, what the fuck" at work, then reading about how EDF managed Flamanville is a good start.
Those are both single units and in that context, the HPC and SZC current cost estimates for units 5/6 and 7/8 in the series don't look unreasonable from the outside. Anyway, we'll see!
All of this has to be has to be seen in the context of 15GW of PV, 10GW of onshore wind, and 12GW of offshore wind already built. By 2035, based on current pipelines (especially offshore wind) the GB grid will have more than 100 GW nameplate of variable renewables in the context of a grid which has a 60GW peak load and 34GW average load. It's kind of hard to imagine that even more variable renewables than that should be built. Obviously a big PWR is not a good load follower (technically it works fine but it's not economically sensible) but a few nukes does mean that you know that you always have at least some power on the grid.
posted by atrazine at 2:30 PM on July 22, 2022 [1 favorite]
Olkiluoto 3 was contracted at €3bn and is currently at €8.5bn, so within the 2-3x range. Flamanville 3 was estimated at €3.3bn but is currently looking like €19.1bn, so worse than 3x. What this has taught the sector is to start higher, Hinkley Point C has only gone up by 50% to get to the currently expected £25bn, though it is early days and commissioning isn't expected till 2027, ten years after the initial target date. The cost to consumers over the lifetime will be around £50bn.
OL3 is now basically operational though so if we put that at 9bn all-up for a single unit, FL3 has spent more than 12bn (but EDF accounting...) which I why I estimated 15bn to finish it. 19 isn't impossible, I think that comes from a French government audit of possible worst case as I've seen the number before. If you ever want to read documents about construction that make you involuntarily say, "yo, what the fuck" at work, then reading about how EDF managed Flamanville is a good start.
Those are both single units and in that context, the HPC and SZC current cost estimates for units 5/6 and 7/8 in the series don't look unreasonable from the outside. Anyway, we'll see!
All of this has to be has to be seen in the context of 15GW of PV, 10GW of onshore wind, and 12GW of offshore wind already built. By 2035, based on current pipelines (especially offshore wind) the GB grid will have more than 100 GW nameplate of variable renewables in the context of a grid which has a 60GW peak load and 34GW average load. It's kind of hard to imagine that even more variable renewables than that should be built. Obviously a big PWR is not a good load follower (technically it works fine but it's not economically sensible) but a few nukes does mean that you know that you always have at least some power on the grid.
posted by atrazine at 2:30 PM on July 22, 2022 [1 favorite]
atrazine, what's the current state of play with cross-Channel HVDC grid interconnectors?
posted by flabdablet at 9:03 PM on July 22, 2022
posted by flabdablet at 9:03 PM on July 22, 2022
a few nukes does mean that you know that you always have at least some power on the grid.
By 2035 the number of EVs in the UK should be getting pretty substantial as well. Anybody across the current state of V2G standardization and realistic projections for aggregate energy arbitrage funded end user driven vehicle battery grid storage?
Also, how many UK energy retailers are already implementing anything like Amber Electric's pricing model?
posted by flabdablet at 9:13 PM on July 22, 2022
By 2035 the number of EVs in the UK should be getting pretty substantial as well. Anybody across the current state of V2G standardization and realistic projections for aggregate energy arbitrage funded end user driven vehicle battery grid storage?
Also, how many UK energy retailers are already implementing anything like Amber Electric's pricing model?
posted by flabdablet at 9:13 PM on July 22, 2022
the climate bats
What additional horror is this?
posted by urbanwhaleshark at 4:08 AM on July 23, 2022 [1 favorite]
What additional horror is this?
posted by urbanwhaleshark at 4:08 AM on July 23, 2022 [1 favorite]
As pointed out above, a heat pump's CoP worsens as the difference between hot-side and cold-side temperature increases.
I doubt utilizing waste exhaust affects the heat pump COP at all, in fact, has the potential to improve it.
Eg on 40°C day, a hot water air sourced heat pump takes in input air at 40°C, extracts heat from it to maintain 65°C in the hot water tank. The outgoing air is now at 25°C and is vented to the environment.
Usually it's just dumped into the ambient environment, cooling the surrounding air around the heat pump if it's in a confined space (since cold air sinks) worsening the COP.
Instead, you could pipe that 25°C air into the house, providing a cooling effect.
posted by xdvesper at 6:57 PM on July 23, 2022
I doubt utilizing waste exhaust affects the heat pump COP at all, in fact, has the potential to improve it.
Eg on 40°C day, a hot water air sourced heat pump takes in input air at 40°C, extracts heat from it to maintain 65°C in the hot water tank. The outgoing air is now at 25°C and is vented to the environment.
Usually it's just dumped into the ambient environment, cooling the surrounding air around the heat pump if it's in a confined space (since cold air sinks) worsening the COP.
Instead, you could pipe that 25°C air into the house, providing a cooling effect.
posted by xdvesper at 6:57 PM on July 23, 2022
a few nukes does mean that you know that you always have at least some power on the grid
Three out of twelve of EDF's UK reactors are currently switched off, and another two are operating at reduced power. If you only have a handful there's more chance it will be all at the same time. Plus if they are all the same model there's more chance of a failure or cause for concern across the class.
posted by biffa at 6:42 AM on July 24, 2022 [1 favorite]
Three out of twelve of EDF's UK reactors are currently switched off, and another two are operating at reduced power. If you only have a handful there's more chance it will be all at the same time. Plus if they are all the same model there's more chance of a failure or cause for concern across the class.
posted by biffa at 6:42 AM on July 24, 2022 [1 favorite]
the climate bats
What additional horror is this?
THIS GRID NEEDS AN ENEMA 🎉
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:13 AM on July 24, 2022
What additional horror is this?
THIS GRID NEEDS AN ENEMA 🎉
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:13 AM on July 24, 2022
That's exactly what I want, as it happens - I have only two floors, but they're both tall, plus the layout is very weird, and upstairs is always several degrees hotter than downstairs. I'd been thinking that zones would let me run the radiators downstairs of an evening without turning the upstairs ones on, and without having to go and fiddle with six radiator valves every time. Thinking about it now though, I wonder if all that would happen is that the heat would rise faster.
As a cheap(ish) solution to that problem, I've fitted smart TRVs to some of my radiators. I replaced my thermostat as well. I have a condensing boiler that supplies both domestic hot water and central heating via radiators. So I had to fit a replacement controller that connects to the boiler to control the hot water schedule too; this shouldn't be necessary with a combi, you can just replace the thermostat.
So in addition to the various features of a smart thermostat - weather adjustment, easily reprogrammable scheduling etc, it also supports separate radiator TRVs. Where it's useful is when you want different room temperature targets at different times of day. So in my case, I don't want the living room on except later in the evening, but the kitchen should be at minimum temp for breakfast and dinner etc, so I fitted tado TRVs to those rooms. Upstairs, since they get quite a bit of heat from downstairs, I've just kept the conventional TRVs, but at a low setting. So if it gets really cold, the upstairs radiators will turn on, but most of the time they don't need to (but don't get too hot either), but I can warm up individual rooms downstairs as needed. e.g. if the family have all gone to bed and I want to keep my office warm, I can extend that in the app or at the TRV itself, but the schedule & standard TRV keeps all the other house radiators off, drastically reducing the load required and it can turn the boiler off again quickly. As with conventional TRV though, it's advised to keep at least one radiator open (we have a small one in the hall) so you don't end up blocking circulation entirely.
I have looked at a heatpump, but encounted 2 problems. The biggest one is my radiators are too small; I'd need more and/or underfloor heating, as the CH water temperature is a lot lower. That is a major cost on top of the heat pump itself, which is not cheap. And though the efficiency of a pump is 4-5x higher, electricity is also over 4 times the cost of gas per kWh, so the net benefit in cost terms is pretty small. Given the cost of living, I just don't have the capital available to put into something that would take a very long time to pay off right now. Solar panels are potentially more useful, but our peak usage is in normal peak evening hours, as we both work and my kids are at school, so without a battery my test projection is it would only cut our usage by 15-20%. Adding a battery helps a lot there, but again, the capital cost rises hard, which we haven't got. Borrowing the money to install, even at relatively low interest means I'd be paying more for my energy than even the eye watering projection of £3.5k coming this winter, which given my salary went up the 'most they could possibly afford' at 2%, when inflation is heading to 11%, after years of pay freezes...
So I'd love to switch to renewables - but unless the upfront costs drop a lot more, or the gov does very cheap loans to amortise it, I just can't afford it in the near future. Switching to a net zero energy supplier and making the radiators smarter was the best option I could actually do.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 11:08 AM on July 24, 2022 [1 favorite]
As a cheap(ish) solution to that problem, I've fitted smart TRVs to some of my radiators. I replaced my thermostat as well. I have a condensing boiler that supplies both domestic hot water and central heating via radiators. So I had to fit a replacement controller that connects to the boiler to control the hot water schedule too; this shouldn't be necessary with a combi, you can just replace the thermostat.
So in addition to the various features of a smart thermostat - weather adjustment, easily reprogrammable scheduling etc, it also supports separate radiator TRVs. Where it's useful is when you want different room temperature targets at different times of day. So in my case, I don't want the living room on except later in the evening, but the kitchen should be at minimum temp for breakfast and dinner etc, so I fitted tado TRVs to those rooms. Upstairs, since they get quite a bit of heat from downstairs, I've just kept the conventional TRVs, but at a low setting. So if it gets really cold, the upstairs radiators will turn on, but most of the time they don't need to (but don't get too hot either), but I can warm up individual rooms downstairs as needed. e.g. if the family have all gone to bed and I want to keep my office warm, I can extend that in the app or at the TRV itself, but the schedule & standard TRV keeps all the other house radiators off, drastically reducing the load required and it can turn the boiler off again quickly. As with conventional TRV though, it's advised to keep at least one radiator open (we have a small one in the hall) so you don't end up blocking circulation entirely.
I have looked at a heatpump, but encounted 2 problems. The biggest one is my radiators are too small; I'd need more and/or underfloor heating, as the CH water temperature is a lot lower. That is a major cost on top of the heat pump itself, which is not cheap. And though the efficiency of a pump is 4-5x higher, electricity is also over 4 times the cost of gas per kWh, so the net benefit in cost terms is pretty small. Given the cost of living, I just don't have the capital available to put into something that would take a very long time to pay off right now. Solar panels are potentially more useful, but our peak usage is in normal peak evening hours, as we both work and my kids are at school, so without a battery my test projection is it would only cut our usage by 15-20%. Adding a battery helps a lot there, but again, the capital cost rises hard, which we haven't got. Borrowing the money to install, even at relatively low interest means I'd be paying more for my energy than even the eye watering projection of £3.5k coming this winter, which given my salary went up the 'most they could possibly afford' at 2%, when inflation is heading to 11%, after years of pay freezes...
So I'd love to switch to renewables - but unless the upfront costs drop a lot more, or the gov does very cheap loans to amortise it, I just can't afford it in the near future. Switching to a net zero energy supplier and making the radiators smarter was the best option I could actually do.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 11:08 AM on July 24, 2022 [1 favorite]
electricity is also over 4 times the cost of gas per kWh
How are you calculating the output heat of your gas system? A flued gas system might only be about 60% efficient, in which case electric pulls ahead by a substantial margin.
posted by xdvesper at 8:49 PM on July 24, 2022
How are you calculating the output heat of your gas system? A flued gas system might only be about 60% efficient, in which case electric pulls ahead by a substantial margin.
posted by xdvesper at 8:49 PM on July 24, 2022
I used 80%, on the basis that it's a recent condensing boiler (installed only 3 years ago) and is set to 62 degC output (the same feed also goes to heat the DHW tank in my s-plan setup, so keeping tank temp up to avoid salmonella becomes an issue at lower), and is shut off prior to room temp being met, along with ambient weather adjust (smart thermostat). It does also have some load adjust capability, but not sure of the impact of that. It does operate in condensing mode quite a lot, but I do sometimes see white vapour out the flue, usually at the start of a run, so it's not always operating in that mode. I know the 94% listed efficiency is a load of bull, but it should be more efficient than an old non-condensing boiler run at 80degC output. I have only been in the property 9 months tho.
Average max gas bill pcm last winter was ~2300 kWh of gas; assuming 80% efficient, that's 1840kWh of usable heat. Assuming an air-source heat pump is 400% efficient, I'd need 460kWh of electricity for the same impact.
Electric is 29p per kwh, gas 7.5p at current capped prices. So that's ~£173 gas bill, or £133 for a heat pump; or £100 if the boiler is only 60% efficient. So let's be generous, and say I'd save £70, not £40, a month switching to a air-source heat pump, for 8 months of the year. A £560 per year saving, which is considerably higher than most online estimates.
Average air-source heat pump install for my size property at lower output temp, around £8-9k with a 5k discount from gov. The killer is fitting underfloor heating which is another £10k or so, going by a plumber friend - and I'm still likely going to need the boiler for domestic hot water. I don't have even close to £14k to spend, and even if I did, that's a 25 year payback, being very optimistic on the savings; if my boiler is actually 80% efficient, then it's 40 years.
Assuming the cost of energy goes up again heavily in october, which it will, the saving would rise somewhat (to around £60 pcm based on a 60% rise in energy costs), and reduce the payback time; but so do my other bills, leaving even less room to save for the capital cost/pay off a loan. (we're currently just about in the black; it's going to be tough this winter, we've already tightened our belts considerably, so we're going to need our savings to get through I suspect)
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 11:57 PM on July 24, 2022
Average max gas bill pcm last winter was ~2300 kWh of gas; assuming 80% efficient, that's 1840kWh of usable heat. Assuming an air-source heat pump is 400% efficient, I'd need 460kWh of electricity for the same impact.
Electric is 29p per kwh, gas 7.5p at current capped prices. So that's ~£173 gas bill, or £133 for a heat pump; or £100 if the boiler is only 60% efficient. So let's be generous, and say I'd save £70, not £40, a month switching to a air-source heat pump, for 8 months of the year. A £560 per year saving, which is considerably higher than most online estimates.
Average air-source heat pump install for my size property at lower output temp, around £8-9k with a 5k discount from gov. The killer is fitting underfloor heating which is another £10k or so, going by a plumber friend - and I'm still likely going to need the boiler for domestic hot water. I don't have even close to £14k to spend, and even if I did, that's a 25 year payback, being very optimistic on the savings; if my boiler is actually 80% efficient, then it's 40 years.
Assuming the cost of energy goes up again heavily in october, which it will, the saving would rise somewhat (to around £60 pcm based on a 60% rise in energy costs), and reduce the payback time; but so do my other bills, leaving even less room to save for the capital cost/pay off a loan. (we're currently just about in the black; it's going to be tough this winter, we've already tightened our belts considerably, so we're going to need our savings to get through I suspect)
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 11:57 PM on July 24, 2022
I have ignored DHW in the calculations btw; my gas bill has dropped to only about 130 kWh pcm doing just hot water now the heating is off, and I'd still need hot water with a new system, so it shouldn't impact the savings significantly.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 12:09 AM on July 25, 2022
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 12:09 AM on July 25, 2022
The cross-channel interconnectors are currently importing from NL and exporting to France. Partially that is because the French government has been treating EDF as a piggy bank for years and put in place a deeply perverse market structure that has led to a maintenance backlog. There were also some mistakes made in designing the newest generation of pre-EPR reactor (the first ones which were not copies of the original American design) which has led to a stress cracking issue on some of the backup cooling lines.
The UK availability issues are different, those are due to the fact that AGRs are all at the end of their lifetimes because the graphite is cracking. They were never designed to run this long, nor in fact were any PWRs (those have ended up lasting a long time though) because everyone thought that there was a lot less uranium in the world than there actually is so everyone built transitional fleets and assumed they would switch to breeders.
I recently changed my condensing boiler over to a hot water priority setup (away from S-plan) so that temperature for my water tank and system can be independently adjusted (for legionella control).
A recent review of installed heat pumps across the UK found that they are pretty systematically underperforming their estimated sCOPs at installation. That isn't terribly surprising but worth keeping in mind when we compare the theoretical performance of two systems.
The real shocker to me is new gas boilers going into newbuild properties when they could easily go on ASHPs. Underfloor radiators cost a lot as a refit but not if specified as part of construction. At least they are required to run at 55C or below so can in theory be adapted to ASHPs when the boiler is end of life.
posted by atrazine at 2:19 AM on July 25, 2022 [2 favorites]
The UK availability issues are different, those are due to the fact that AGRs are all at the end of their lifetimes because the graphite is cracking. They were never designed to run this long, nor in fact were any PWRs (those have ended up lasting a long time though) because everyone thought that there was a lot less uranium in the world than there actually is so everyone built transitional fleets and assumed they would switch to breeders.
I recently changed my condensing boiler over to a hot water priority setup (away from S-plan) so that temperature for my water tank and system can be independently adjusted (for legionella control).
A recent review of installed heat pumps across the UK found that they are pretty systematically underperforming their estimated sCOPs at installation. That isn't terribly surprising but worth keeping in mind when we compare the theoretical performance of two systems.
The real shocker to me is new gas boilers going into newbuild properties when they could easily go on ASHPs. Underfloor radiators cost a lot as a refit but not if specified as part of construction. At least they are required to run at 55C or below so can in theory be adapted to ASHPs when the boiler is end of life.
posted by atrazine at 2:19 AM on July 25, 2022 [2 favorites]
Arg yes, Legionella, not salmonella on the hot water tank, no idea where that came from! I'll look into hot water priority re-plumbing, I think the boiler supports it.
It is nuts that new build rules won't change until 2025 at the earliest in the UK to push ASHP. It's so much cheaper to fit them at build instead of refitting. Given the up-front costs, my priority is to replace my 15 yo diesel car with an electric. Then solar panels, then maybe ASHP heating. It is so frustrating that despite wanting to cut carbon as much as I can, the costs are just prohibitive compared to business as usual; the feed-in tariffs for solar for example are pitiful right now.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 3:01 AM on July 25, 2022 [2 favorites]
It is nuts that new build rules won't change until 2025 at the earliest in the UK to push ASHP. It's so much cheaper to fit them at build instead of refitting. Given the up-front costs, my priority is to replace my 15 yo diesel car with an electric. Then solar panels, then maybe ASHP heating. It is so frustrating that despite wanting to cut carbon as much as I can, the costs are just prohibitive compared to business as usual; the feed-in tariffs for solar for example are pitiful right now.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 3:01 AM on July 25, 2022 [2 favorites]
Can heat pumps work with tankless hot water? I have the impression the answer is no, but although I can't be the only person whose home doesn't have an obvious place to put a hot water cylinder (I have a tiny loft just at the very peak of the roof, a cupboard-under-the-stairs that comes roughly to my ribcage at its tallest, and a full-height meter cupboard that's literally just deep enough to hold the electricity meter), I haven't been able to find much discussion about that as a serious sticking point.
(It's probably a moot point though; first, the local council's got to concede that people who live in the conservation area also need to be able to have environmentally friendly heating.)
posted by ManyLeggedCreature at 3:06 AM on July 25, 2022
(It's probably a moot point though; first, the local council's got to concede that people who live in the conservation area also need to be able to have environmentally friendly heating.)
posted by ManyLeggedCreature at 3:06 AM on July 25, 2022
AFAIK for hot water, you do need a compatible hot water tank with an ASHP due to the lower flow temperature, rather than tankless with a combi. It also tends to be bigger than the one you use for a system boiler, with a larger heat exchanger. I think they also often use a scheduled immersion heater to get the tank temperature higher to avoid legionnaires' disease.
The other option is to keep the combi for domestic hot water, and use the ASHP just for heating which will still be the majority of your gas use. How that's expected to work out longer term as gas is phased out, I have no idea.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 3:31 AM on July 25, 2022 [1 favorite]
The other option is to keep the combi for domestic hot water, and use the ASHP just for heating which will still be the majority of your gas use. How that's expected to work out longer term as gas is phased out, I have no idea.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 3:31 AM on July 25, 2022 [1 favorite]
The real shocker to me is new gas boilers going into newbuild properties when they could easily go on ASHPs. Underfloor radiators cost a lot as a refit but not if specified as part of construction. At least they are required to run at 55C or below so can in theory be adapted to ASHPs when the boiler is end of life.
Yeah, this is tied up with Cameron getting rid of the "Green Crap" back in 2015. The Zero Carbon Housing standards that were expected in 2016 were put off then, with HPs a leading option for substituting for gas boilers. We'll be stuck with those underperforming houses for decades, certainly all the way through to 2050.
A UK Government comparison a few years ago found that new build installation of HP plus EE upgrade came to £4-5k, while a retrofit for HP & EE came to about £20k. So the policy impact has been substantial. A new set of standards will now come in from 2025. Government estimated as of June 21 that a HP retrofit alone would cost £12k.
posted by biffa at 6:32 AM on July 25, 2022
Yeah, this is tied up with Cameron getting rid of the "Green Crap" back in 2015. The Zero Carbon Housing standards that were expected in 2016 were put off then, with HPs a leading option for substituting for gas boilers. We'll be stuck with those underperforming houses for decades, certainly all the way through to 2050.
A UK Government comparison a few years ago found that new build installation of HP plus EE upgrade came to £4-5k, while a retrofit for HP & EE came to about £20k. So the policy impact has been substantial. A new set of standards will now come in from 2025. Government estimated as of June 21 that a HP retrofit alone would cost £12k.
posted by biffa at 6:32 AM on July 25, 2022
The short answer is: not really.
The peak output of a combi can be up to 24kW (that's mine for instance). An ASHP for my house would be more like 6 or 7. There are solutions being looked at that that are more compact, that use phase change materials to store heat but realistically you will need a tank.
You can use direct electric heating for hot water but that will require (probably) an upgrade of your electrical supply and will be expensive in energy costs.
I've recently completed a piece of work on a very detailed bottom-up thermal performance model that adds further nuance to the existing UK government work but broadly speaking those numbers are still right. Fundamentally the cost of underfloor heating, thicker insulation and good quality modern double paned glass (with good detailing, please god, the detailing is so important or you will have a house made of well insulated materials that leaks air like a sieve) is not that high. However the cost of tearing out existing walls and floors in order to put them in is immense. Not to mention the fact that boiler replacements are classic distress purchases so they need to be 1:1 swappable which ASHPs are not unless the system is already running in low temperature mode.
I'm a big fan of the Enerphit retrofit standard which involves putting together a long term renovation sequence plan for a building and then doing it in logical stages. That might involve going to a temperature compensated X-plan or DHW priority condensing boiler setup now (keeping the existing boiler if possible) and then planning a swap to ASHP when the building thermal fabric reaches target standards. Some items like windows need replacement eventually anyway so that keeps the costs down because there is limited *additional* cost to replacing end of life uPVC windows. One of the key idea behind Enerphit is not shooting yourself in the foot at earlier stages and in the heating world, the one thing that I wish we could stop is the removal of DHW storage cylinders for combi conversions. That just makes it so hard to go to ASHP later because you've now used the space in which that cylinder sat for something else so now what?
posted by atrazine at 7:59 AM on July 25, 2022 [4 favorites]
The peak output of a combi can be up to 24kW (that's mine for instance). An ASHP for my house would be more like 6 or 7. There are solutions being looked at that that are more compact, that use phase change materials to store heat but realistically you will need a tank.
You can use direct electric heating for hot water but that will require (probably) an upgrade of your electrical supply and will be expensive in energy costs.
I've recently completed a piece of work on a very detailed bottom-up thermal performance model that adds further nuance to the existing UK government work but broadly speaking those numbers are still right. Fundamentally the cost of underfloor heating, thicker insulation and good quality modern double paned glass (with good detailing, please god, the detailing is so important or you will have a house made of well insulated materials that leaks air like a sieve) is not that high. However the cost of tearing out existing walls and floors in order to put them in is immense. Not to mention the fact that boiler replacements are classic distress purchases so they need to be 1:1 swappable which ASHPs are not unless the system is already running in low temperature mode.
I'm a big fan of the Enerphit retrofit standard which involves putting together a long term renovation sequence plan for a building and then doing it in logical stages. That might involve going to a temperature compensated X-plan or DHW priority condensing boiler setup now (keeping the existing boiler if possible) and then planning a swap to ASHP when the building thermal fabric reaches target standards. Some items like windows need replacement eventually anyway so that keeps the costs down because there is limited *additional* cost to replacing end of life uPVC windows. One of the key idea behind Enerphit is not shooting yourself in the foot at earlier stages and in the heating world, the one thing that I wish we could stop is the removal of DHW storage cylinders for combi conversions. That just makes it so hard to go to ASHP later because you've now used the space in which that cylinder sat for something else so now what?
posted by atrazine at 7:59 AM on July 25, 2022 [4 favorites]
Some part of my surviving fifth grade no-math science fair brain still thinks there should be a turbine in anything that has an exhaust and my water heater should be tied into my CPU cooler and my shoes should have little dynamos that recharge my phone.
This is the same part of my brain that worries about 'taking' too much solar or wind energy 'out of the system' and triggering some entropic collapse.
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:09 AM on July 26, 2022 [1 favorite]
This is the same part of my brain that worries about 'taking' too much solar or wind energy 'out of the system' and triggering some entropic collapse.
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:09 AM on July 26, 2022 [1 favorite]
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They just go out of the Alps and are hitting flatter ground. Their pictures just show two sweaty hikers and summertime scenery, but increasingly they mention how grateful they are for water -- any water.
Good luck, Europeans.
posted by wenestvedt at 6:34 AM on July 19, 2022 [2 favorites]