Monsoon on steroids
August 30, 2022 4:33 PM Subscribe
Pakistan, which produces less than 1% of the world's carbon emissions but is ranked as the eighth most affected nation by climate change, is experiencing devastating floods affecting around 33 million people.
High levels of flooding are expected to continue in the next days and as much as one quarter or one third of the country could be underwater before the extreme weather event ends.
Sherry Rehman, Pakistan’s climate change minister, said towns had become “oceans and rivers” but, due to climate heating, she expected the country to go straight into a drought in upcoming weeks. “We are on the front of unfolding climate catastrophe.”
My country, Canada, yesterday generously announced $5 million in funding for humanitarian aid. We're in the top 10 of carbon emissions per capita (our leaders always like to say that we're only responsible for 1-2% of global emissions ignoring the fact that we're only 0.5% of the population) and really ought to give more money now and do more to reduce our emissions.
posted by any portmanteau in a storm at 6:31 PM on August 30, 2022 [6 favorites]
posted by any portmanteau in a storm at 6:31 PM on August 30, 2022 [6 favorites]
It's a 30-year record rainfall combined with rapidly melting glaciers. Today I learned that Pakistan has the most glaciers of any county outside of the North and South poles.
posted by subdee at 7:07 PM on August 30, 2022 [6 favorites]
posted by subdee at 7:07 PM on August 30, 2022 [6 favorites]
Bill McKibben on the flooding.
He points to these terrifying clips.
posted by doctornemo at 8:35 PM on August 30, 2022 [2 favorites]
He points to these terrifying clips.
posted by doctornemo at 8:35 PM on August 30, 2022 [2 favorites]
You said it, armoir from any proof case.
The stories have been devastating.
posted by rrrrrrrrrt at 10:45 PM on August 30, 2022 [1 favorite]
The stories have been devastating.
posted by rrrrrrrrrt at 10:45 PM on August 30, 2022 [1 favorite]
If the governments of the west can send billions in armaments to Ukraine, i hope something of the same will be sent to Pakistan
Ukraine has been fighting Russian invasion in the Donbas for 8 years (and the annexation of the Crimea); the west only really got involved when Putin tried to take the whole country. It's in their strategic interest to try and stop Putin from rolling right on through into eastern Europe, and the 5x cost of energy increase in europe is part of the price borne by the public, along with the billions spent on military equipment.
Around 12 million Ukrainians have left their homes, with at least 5 million fleeing the country outright, with no prospect of being able to go home any time soon - if their homes even exist any more. And there have been so many civilians killed or wounded by Russian troops in the occupied areas, often intentionally. A future that Russia wants to inflict on all ex-soviet countries.
Pakistan sided with Russia.
About the only good thing coming from the Ukrainian war is that EU countries have mostly acknowledged relying on cheap Russian gas was a terrible mistake, and they're now rushing to build renewable energy sources much faster, which will reduce emissions in the long run.
That said, I do hope Pakistan gets all the humanitarian aid it needs to mitigate this climate change caused disaster. But I think it's a bit of a facile comparison to trying to stop the intentional destruction and murder inflicted on Ukrainians by Russia.
I'd also hope it might wake up global-warming-ignoring governments (and vocal climate deniers) to the harsh reality, but I've not much hope there alas.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 1:29 AM on August 31, 2022 [11 favorites]
Ukraine has been fighting Russian invasion in the Donbas for 8 years (and the annexation of the Crimea); the west only really got involved when Putin tried to take the whole country. It's in their strategic interest to try and stop Putin from rolling right on through into eastern Europe, and the 5x cost of energy increase in europe is part of the price borne by the public, along with the billions spent on military equipment.
Around 12 million Ukrainians have left their homes, with at least 5 million fleeing the country outright, with no prospect of being able to go home any time soon - if their homes even exist any more. And there have been so many civilians killed or wounded by Russian troops in the occupied areas, often intentionally. A future that Russia wants to inflict on all ex-soviet countries.
Pakistan sided with Russia.
About the only good thing coming from the Ukrainian war is that EU countries have mostly acknowledged relying on cheap Russian gas was a terrible mistake, and they're now rushing to build renewable energy sources much faster, which will reduce emissions in the long run.
That said, I do hope Pakistan gets all the humanitarian aid it needs to mitigate this climate change caused disaster. But I think it's a bit of a facile comparison to trying to stop the intentional destruction and murder inflicted on Ukrainians by Russia.
I'd also hope it might wake up global-warming-ignoring governments (and vocal climate deniers) to the harsh reality, but I've not much hope there alas.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 1:29 AM on August 31, 2022 [11 favorites]
Thank you @Absolutely No You- Know-What! I think a lot of people don’t realize that both India and Pakistan are rather involved with Russia, and have been for DECADES.
posted by Katjusa Roquette at 6:37 AM on August 31, 2022
posted by Katjusa Roquette at 6:37 AM on August 31, 2022
Did someone in this thread say that sending aid to Ukraine was a poor choice, or that somehow Ukraine wasn’t as deserving of it as Pakistan? I certainly don’t see that.
I wasn’t comparing the aid-receiving-worthiness of Pakistani people vs the Ukranian people. It was more about what i suspect will (or, won’t) happen in the minds of those at the giving end of the transactions, and what their collective assessments of said aid worthiness may be. Personally i believe Ukraine needs the aid just as much as Pakistan, but i suspect the extent to and ease with which the West will come to Pakistan’s side will be different in scope and enthusiasm, since Pakistan’s not supplying fuel and other critical sustenance to the would-be assistance givers; because western governments will — per the “Pakistan sided with Russia” * flag that will be waved — fear the money will end up in the hands of enemies; and because too many people in the Western countries care far far less about suffering brown-skinned people whose cultures, values, and lifestyles are to many unrecognizable and at best less known or understood to them than the people of Western Europe who are suffering intentional destruction and murder from a known cult-of-personality Other Side Bad Guy. I think that holds more sway in the minds of many than even if Mr. Rogers himself were to come back to earth and tell everyone to help out Pakistan. Sadly I believe that in the minds of many individuals, both civilian and in government , Pakistani houses swept away by floodwaters are less of a motivator of interest and for assistance than a theatre full of Ukrainians that’s been shelled.
Well, ok, i’m perhaps underestimating the power of Fred Rogers, but hopefully have done a better job of communicating my point than i did[n’t] earlier.
* so what? Do the the decisions made be a state somehow make its citizens less worthy of the assistance needed to be able to live?
posted by armoir from antproof case at 8:30 AM on August 31, 2022 [2 favorites]
I wasn’t comparing the aid-receiving-worthiness of Pakistani people vs the Ukranian people. It was more about what i suspect will (or, won’t) happen in the minds of those at the giving end of the transactions, and what their collective assessments of said aid worthiness may be. Personally i believe Ukraine needs the aid just as much as Pakistan, but i suspect the extent to and ease with which the West will come to Pakistan’s side will be different in scope and enthusiasm, since Pakistan’s not supplying fuel and other critical sustenance to the would-be assistance givers; because western governments will — per the “Pakistan sided with Russia” * flag that will be waved — fear the money will end up in the hands of enemies; and because too many people in the Western countries care far far less about suffering brown-skinned people whose cultures, values, and lifestyles are to many unrecognizable and at best less known or understood to them than the people of Western Europe who are suffering intentional destruction and murder from a known cult-of-personality Other Side Bad Guy. I think that holds more sway in the minds of many than even if Mr. Rogers himself were to come back to earth and tell everyone to help out Pakistan. Sadly I believe that in the minds of many individuals, both civilian and in government , Pakistani houses swept away by floodwaters are less of a motivator of interest and for assistance than a theatre full of Ukrainians that’s been shelled.
Well, ok, i’m perhaps underestimating the power of Fred Rogers, but hopefully have done a better job of communicating my point than i did[n’t] earlier.
* so what? Do the the decisions made be a state somehow make its citizens less worthy of the assistance needed to be able to live?
posted by armoir from antproof case at 8:30 AM on August 31, 2022 [2 favorites]
Pakistan seems to get more than its share of natural catastrophes. Strong earthquakes and frail buildings. Over the coming years, flooding is likely to be worse. A nation of 242 million people. Grim.
posted by neuron at 9:08 AM on August 31, 2022
posted by neuron at 9:08 AM on August 31, 2022
Climate change is slow violence until it's not. The flooding in Pakistan is devastating in its impacts. A third of the nation’s land is under water!!!!!
posted by spamandkimchi at 10:38 AM on August 31, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by spamandkimchi at 10:38 AM on August 31, 2022 [2 favorites]
And the river valleys will have been the level and accessible land, too, with a huge proportion of the infrastructure. It’s really terrifying.
posted by clew at 11:08 AM on August 31, 2022
posted by clew at 11:08 AM on August 31, 2022
Pakistan seems to get more than its share of natural catastrophes.
As we saw in the US with Hurricane Katrina, in Texas with last summer’s heat waves or last winter’s freeze, or from many other examples, there are a lot of factors that go into how large a human catastrophe is created by a storm or geological event. While Pakistan does have some specific geologic and climate vulnerabilities, there also seem to be some political and economic factors that turn extreme natural events into more severe catastrophes than they might otherwise be. (Which mostly seems to be related to the ongoing fallout of Partition/their particular post-colonial circumstances, as well as being adjacent to Afghanistan and how related regional geopolitics have affected them?)
posted by eviemath at 11:38 AM on August 31, 2022
As we saw in the US with Hurricane Katrina, in Texas with last summer’s heat waves or last winter’s freeze, or from many other examples, there are a lot of factors that go into how large a human catastrophe is created by a storm or geological event. While Pakistan does have some specific geologic and climate vulnerabilities, there also seem to be some political and economic factors that turn extreme natural events into more severe catastrophes than they might otherwise be. (Which mostly seems to be related to the ongoing fallout of Partition/their particular post-colonial circumstances, as well as being adjacent to Afghanistan and how related regional geopolitics have affected them?)
posted by eviemath at 11:38 AM on August 31, 2022
Additionally, if you put Pakistan over the US, it would cover the Eastern Seaboard and the Appalachians from Pennsylvania to northern Florida, plus Alabama and Mississippi. Think of all the natural catastrophes that happen in that space.
posted by Etrigan at 11:53 AM on August 31, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by Etrigan at 11:53 AM on August 31, 2022 [3 favorites]
I wanted to know what a third of a nation would look like, and the US is the one I'm most familiar with. If a third of the land of the US were underwater, it would be the equivalent amount of land to all of California, Texas, and Alaska combined.
Plus two DCs, Rhode Island, Delaware, Connecticut, two New Jerseys, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Hawai'i, Maryland, Puerto Rico, Northern Mariana Islands, United States Virgin Islands, American Samoa, Guam, Baker Island, Howland Island, Jarvis Island, Johnston Atoll, Kingman Reef, Midway Atoll, Palmyra Atoll, and Wake Island and Navassa Island. And some room to spare.
But the US is really big. So I wanted a more to-scale comparison. Pakistan is about the size of New Mexico, Arizona, and Nevada combined (all of which are in the top 10 US states by area). The middle third would be approximately Arizona. But Arizona hopefully has more cactuses than people. So I kept going.
The 33 million Pakistanis impacted would be more like the entire populations of New Jersey, Rhode Island, Puerto Rico, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Guam, American Samoa, US Virgin Islands, Maryland, Delaware. Combined.
Or, more than the entire population of any state or territory in the US other than California. All flooded.
That starts to gives me a sense of just how incomprehensibly huge this is.
posted by aniola at 11:59 AM on August 31, 2022 [4 favorites]
Plus two DCs, Rhode Island, Delaware, Connecticut, two New Jerseys, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Hawai'i, Maryland, Puerto Rico, Northern Mariana Islands, United States Virgin Islands, American Samoa, Guam, Baker Island, Howland Island, Jarvis Island, Johnston Atoll, Kingman Reef, Midway Atoll, Palmyra Atoll, and Wake Island and Navassa Island. And some room to spare.
But the US is really big. So I wanted a more to-scale comparison. Pakistan is about the size of New Mexico, Arizona, and Nevada combined (all of which are in the top 10 US states by area). The middle third would be approximately Arizona. But Arizona hopefully has more cactuses than people. So I kept going.
The 33 million Pakistanis impacted would be more like the entire populations of New Jersey, Rhode Island, Puerto Rico, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Guam, American Samoa, US Virgin Islands, Maryland, Delaware. Combined.
Or, more than the entire population of any state or territory in the US other than California. All flooded.
That starts to gives me a sense of just how incomprehensibly huge this is.
posted by aniola at 11:59 AM on August 31, 2022 [4 favorites]
a really eerie time to finally getting around to reading Kim Stanley Robinson's Ministry for the Future which starts with a graphic, first-person account of a mass heat death event in India created by climate change, and the collective shoulder shrug by the colonizer states who are the primary reason for pollution via their past industrializations, who are now steadfast in restricting pollution from nations industrializing today, and who are resistant to limiting energy use at all, and whose banking institutions facilitate pollution with little to no regard for the future
posted by paimapi at 1:56 PM on August 31, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by paimapi at 1:56 PM on August 31, 2022 [5 favorites]
I suppose a funny (in a sick way) and illuminating contrast to this is the fact that the reconstruction of Notre Dame raised $1 billion while Pakistan has thus far only received... what, a fifth of that? for something that is unarguably a much bigger fucking deal
posted by paimapi at 2:00 PM on August 31, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by paimapi at 2:00 PM on August 31, 2022 [3 favorites]
Around CliFi, The Dark Forest by Cixin Liu handles climate change spectacularly:
At the explicit level, his characters all refuse to discuss "the great ravine", due to agricultural failure bringing mass cannibalism.
At an implicit level, his dark forest theory discusses how life within a biosphere is largely zero sum, with emitting pollutants like CO2 being one "resource". In particular, all Cixin Liu's space ship examples seem designed to imply that China must win a nuclear war with the U.S. to survive climate change. This interpretation fits with what I know of his politics too.
posted by jeffburdges at 1:42 PM on September 2, 2022
At the explicit level, his characters all refuse to discuss "the great ravine", due to agricultural failure bringing mass cannibalism.
At an implicit level, his dark forest theory discusses how life within a biosphere is largely zero sum, with emitting pollutants like CO2 being one "resource". In particular, all Cixin Liu's space ship examples seem designed to imply that China must win a nuclear war with the U.S. to survive climate change. This interpretation fits with what I know of his politics too.
posted by jeffburdges at 1:42 PM on September 2, 2022
I think estimates were increased to 40 million people displaced and 40 billion USD in economic losses.
We're inching closer to scary wet bulb temperatures too in some places in India, Pakistan, and elsewhere..
“Our .. actual human subject data .. shows that [lethal] wet-bulb temperature [begin] closer to 31.5°C”
'He looked at me, and with a sad smile, simply said "They will die".' — James G Dyke
posted by jeffburdges at 3:23 PM on September 24, 2022
We're inching closer to scary wet bulb temperatures too in some places in India, Pakistan, and elsewhere..
“Our .. actual human subject data .. shows that [lethal] wet-bulb temperature [begin] closer to 31.5°C”
'He looked at me, and with a sad smile, simply said "They will die".' — James G Dyke
posted by jeffburdges at 3:23 PM on September 24, 2022
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If the governments of the west can send billions in armaments to Ukraine, i hope something of the same will be sent to Pakistan. Not that merely throwing money at the problem is or will be enough, but i’d like to believe it could at least enable activities that save many from starvation and… so many other bad outcomes. For some reason i suspect it will be found to be far more difficult to send the means to rebuild than it’s been to send the means to destroy , but i really want to be proven wrong.
posted by armoir from antproof case at 5:40 PM on August 30, 2022 [11 favorites]