Virgin fails to get it up
January 9, 2023 8:15 PM   Subscribe

Last night, Virgin Orbit attempted the first ever space launch from UK soil (well, kind of) with their 747 carrier aircraft Cosmic Girl taking off from "Spaceport Cornwall" to release a LauncherOne rocket over the Atlantic ocean. The venture had been hailed as the start of new space industry for post-Brexit Britain, but the company and regulators argued openly in the press about who was to blame for delays. On the night, the much-hyped livestream was a flop, with glitchy telemetry, the sign language interpreter spotted drinking, the Chrome browser running the visuals crashing, and the final release countdown passing by without any video or commentary, only elevator music. Eventually a grainy image appeared, but although the launch itself initially seemed successful, the company later had to retract a tweet reporting a successful orbit, as an as-yet undetermined failure of the second stage left all nine satellites in the payload to burn up on re-entry. The company's stock price promptly fell to Earth by 30%, almost as quickly as the failed rocket.
posted by automatronic (39 comments total) 6 users marked this as a favorite
 
The company's stock price promptly fell to Earth by 30%, almost as quickly as the failed rocket.

Insult to injury, as it had already lost ~80% of its IPO value over the past few years.
posted by jedicus at 8:32 PM on January 9, 2023 [3 favorites]


Interesting -- did not realize they'd switched to launching rockets from a 747.

Looks like they've successfully put satellites into orbit with this setup four times over the past couple of years.
posted by Artifice_Eternity at 8:52 PM on January 9, 2023 [2 favorites]


Virgin Orbital has apparently been needing cash infusions from Richard Branson to keep operating. I wonder if 2 failures on 6 launch attempts is going to be the last straw.
posted by tclark at 9:06 PM on January 9, 2023


2 failures on 6 launches isn't too unusual, but it would depend on why it failed...

Falcon 1 was a single engine design that failed on the first 3 attempts, then successfully completed the 4th test flight, then sold commercial cargo on the 5th, after which it was retired. So 3 failures out of 5 flights, but it was always intended to be a test bed.

It was replaced with the Falcon 9 (aptly named for the 9 engine design) and it had 197 out of 199 successful launches. One was a failure (blew up) and one was a partial success, with 95% of the cargo payload making it to the ISS, the secondary payload - a prototype satellite - not making it into its intended orbit, but was still successfully deployed for testing, albeit not for as long as the owners would have liked before burning up in the atmosphere.
posted by xdvesper at 9:43 PM on January 9, 2023 [4 favorites]


The more concerning thing is cost, I'm not sure how they can be competitive, at $12 mil for 300kg payload on Virgin Orbit's rocket vs $63 mil for 22,500 payload to LEO in the Falcon 9. But surely maintaining your own launch capability in UK is a valuable strategic thing to have, so the more competition the better.
posted by xdvesper at 9:46 PM on January 9, 2023 [1 favorite]


Going to space is still pretty hard, notwithstanding the banner year 2022 was for space travel.

Still, it's hard to see the second stage fail and not wonder just what was up with their QC process.
posted by The Pluto Gangsta at 9:47 PM on January 9, 2023 [1 favorite]


Ride sharing on larger rockets is going eat their lunch even if they can ever get to orbit.
posted by neonamber at 10:44 PM on January 9, 2023


first ever space launch from UK soil (well, kind of) . . .
Not even UK seas! Irish fisherfolk were warned yesterday about Branson having a dump potentially letting fall some debris off the SW coast of Cork last night. Apparently UK Civil aviation refused them a licence.
"The CEO of the Irish South and West Fish Producers Organisation, Patrick Murphy, said it is going to impact fishermen's ability to make a living out there, adding that there has been no consultation or communication on the matter."
posted by BobTheScientist at 10:55 PM on January 9, 2023 [10 favorites]


I'm guessing there'll be a Banksy work of some kind celebrating the Britannic Majesty of this episode before too long.
posted by protorp at 11:38 PM on January 9, 2023 [2 favorites]


No rocket was launched from UK soil, or airspace, or territorial waters. A rocket was launched from airspace over the territorial waters of the Republic of Ireland. The rocket launch happens where you actually, you know launch the rocket, not where the delivery vehicle leaves from to take the rocket to the launch location.

NASA launches from the pad, not from the VAB when the crawler leaves. If you launched from a barge or ship, you'd be launching from the barge or ship at sea, not from the harbour when the ship with the rocket on board sets sail.

But for some reason, when the 747 carrying the rocket to its launch location leaves, that's a launch? No. The rocket launch is when the actual rocket launches.
posted by Dysk at 12:36 AM on January 10, 2023 [6 favorites]


Also this is a perfect illustration of Brexit Britain - an utter disorganised shambles, that ends in disaster, premised on a lie ("British launch").
posted by Dysk at 12:40 AM on January 10, 2023 [30 favorites]


How disappointing for the people that worked so hard on it.

I hear we have a good industry in making satellites, I guess it would be helpful to be able to offer an end-to-end service.
posted by plonkee at 1:36 AM on January 10, 2023 [1 favorite]


But for some reason, when the 747 carrying the rocket to its launch location leaves, that's a launch? No. The rocket launch is when the actual rocket launches.

It's not completely unreasonable to view the 747 as a reusable first stage of what is effectively a partially air-breathing, partially rocket-powered, three-stage launch system. It provides the first 35,000ft of altitude, which does make a pretty big difference. And you do still end up needing special infrastructure at the airport, because it's a liquid-fuelled rocket and you have to have the facilities to handle a quantity of LOX that most airport administrators with a sense of self-preservation and a desire for a lasting career would not want on site, no way no how.

But it does make the takeoff from ground level much less of an event worth making a big PR fuss about, certainly, and makes it look extra dumb when you do that and then screw it up.
posted by automatronic at 1:46 AM on January 10, 2023 [8 favorites]


It's not completely unreasonable to view the 747 as a reusable first stage of what is effectively a partially air-breathing, partially rocket-powered, three-stage launch system.

Sure. Just don't call it a 'rocket launch' then (which the UK press did extensively). In fact, in that case what happens in the UK is not a launch anyway - it's a takeoff. The rocket launch is happening over Irish waters.

If my house is hit by a rocket carried by a fighter jet from an airforce base, I will say I had a rocket shot at me from a plane, not from the airforce base. If this rocket reaches space, the rocket was launched from a 747, not from Cornwall.
posted by Dysk at 1:54 AM on January 10, 2023 [2 favorites]


There's a long history of launch companies with a great idea only having enough money for 1 or 2 tests when really you need to be able to build and test incrementally, fail a lot and learn from that, do it relatively quietly so that your failures don't discourage that extra financing that you are going to need.

These guys are doing it with all the hype when really they should be doing it quietly and then hyping their successes when they happen
posted by mbo at 2:03 AM on January 10, 2023 [5 favorites]


One quite neat detail about the system is the way it uses a feature that's fairly unique to the 747. You couldn't modify most airliners to do this without massive internal structural changes, which would be very hard to implement and get flight certified.

But when the 747 was first built, its engines were so much bigger than anything before, that there just wasn't any way that you could quickly ferry a spare engine out to a stranded 747 which found itself needing one. So Boeing designed the 747 with the capability to carry a whole spare engine, in a fifth pod that could be mounted under the port wing on a short pylon. That way, the airlines that ordered a fleet of 747s got the capability to ferry an engine to where it needed to go using another of their own aircraft, solving a logistical problem that might otherwise have made the new aircraft impractical to operate. The need for that feature mostly went away in the decades that followed, as larger cargo aircraft became available, but Qantas kept the option right through to the 747-400, and occasionally use it. You can do it on revenue flights! Imagine boarding and looking out the window and there's a whole extra engine just chilling there under the wing.

So as a side effect of all that, there's an extra hardpoint on the 747 that's rated for a massive heavy load. Virgin still had to adapt the aircraft, but the structural features were already there in the wing to support it, all because there was no way to air freight a JT9D to the arse end of nowhere back in 1968.
posted by automatronic at 2:09 AM on January 10, 2023 [52 favorites]


Scott Manley did a video about Virgin Orbit a couple of years ago: Virgin Orbit's Failed Rocket Launch & The History Of Air Lauched Rockets To Orbit.
posted by Pendragon at 2:57 AM on January 10, 2023


The biggest problem is that air-launching rockets is basically always going to be limited.

Getting to space isn't really about altitude; it's speed, so you can go fast enough to stay up there. Air-launching means you don't have to do the slow initial launch in dense low altitude air, but ultimately, it's only shaving a few percent off the total energy cost to get up to orbit. And it drastically limits the size of the rocket you can use because of the size of the plane, and hence the payload.

The advantage is that the first stage (the plane) is reusable, and you're not constrained as much by weather conditions at the launch site. So there's a niche there.

In a world with cheap reusable self-landing rockets though, it's a very small niche. And if your rocket doesn't work either...
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 3:09 AM on January 10, 2023 [5 favorites]


automatronic thank you for sharing such a fascinating detail; the aviation history nerd in me has had their day made, even though I can no longer share stuff like this with my ex-pilot dad, rip.
posted by protorp at 3:19 AM on January 10, 2023 [2 favorites]


I hear we have a good industry in making satellites

And if we destroy them on launch we get to make them all over again.
posted by grahamparks at 3:44 AM on January 10, 2023 [3 favorites]


Even if this launch had been a success, the PR around it is all very amateurish, not least MP Grant Shapps publishing a Pravda-style endorsement.
posted by Lanark at 4:05 AM on January 10, 2023 [5 favorites]


xdvesper: But surely maintaining your own launch capability in UK is a valuable strategic thing to have, so the more competition the better.

You might think that, but the UK had its own launcher back in 1971—Black Arrow, which successfully launched the Prospero 1 satellite—until a Conservative government cancelled it, because apparently it was cheaper to buy American launch capacity.

It's always the Tories, isn't it.
posted by cstross at 4:39 AM on January 10, 2023 [10 favorites]


Only country in the world to have had space launch capability and walk away from it. Virgin Orbital being an American company, this launch being a success wouldn't have changed that - it's generally about who builds and runs the vehicle, not about where it's launched from. (Black Arrow/Prospero launched from Australia, for example).
posted by Dysk at 5:09 AM on January 10, 2023 [1 favorite]


Grant Shapps publishing a Pravda-style endorsement

It's the Airbrushed Soviet Space Program all over again!
posted by Major Clanger at 5:26 AM on January 10, 2023 [2 favorites]


I would just like to note in passing that Grant Shapps is an anagram for Shart Ppangs, which is what I feel whenever I contemplate his face.
posted by cstross at 5:57 AM on January 10, 2023 [5 favorites]


The guy drinking on camera is pretty hilarious. I wasn't expecting to see him gulping from a giant brown bottle! Reminds me of old SCTV.
posted by SoberHighland at 6:35 AM on January 10, 2023


That bottle going upside-down is just a sign for the rocket going in the drink. Perfectly legit.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 7:05 AM on January 10, 2023 [1 favorite]


The BBC has called out the doctored photo, and Shapps is now claiming - via a "source close to him" who somehow knows his inner thoughts - that he didn't know it was edited, and that he was "proud to serve in Boris Johnson's government". It's hard to tell which part of that is more damning.
posted by automatronic at 8:05 AM on January 10, 2023 [2 favorites]


sign language interpreter spotted drinking,

I laughed, but I'm guessing that is the interpreter that wasn't working at that point in time? It seems to have deliberately shown a brief clip of that guy chugging a bottle in between the other guy working away.

(note: I'm not gonna watch the 2+ hours of this to figure out how the interpretation was going otherwise, though.)
posted by jenfullmoon at 8:17 AM on January 10, 2023


But for some reason, when the 747 carrying the rocket to its launch location leaves, that's a launch? No. The rocket launch is when the actual rocket launches.

As much as I dislike Branson's incredibly dated and clueless jet-age rock star swinger aesthetic (like naming the 747 carrier aircraft "Cosmic Girl" like that's all cool and ok in 2023, ugh. Or the original name of his record company, while we're at it!) I'm going to have to disagree with this because there's a number of different precedents of alternative first stage rocket launch and spaceflight systems.

Scaled Composite's SpaceShipOne is one preceding example, including the renaming of the Mojave City airport to Mojave Spaceport. So are the X-15 test flights, which are arguably the first suborbital space flights.

Another way to think about this is if we had a horizontal take off hybrid aircraft or spacecraft that took off like a regular plane and was capable of single stage to orbit flights.

Would that be a "rocket" launch? Well, that depends I guess on the final propulsion to orbit and how much you want to split hairs about it. Would it be a spacecraft? Absolutely, no question.

One of the remarkable things about SpaceShipOne was how boring and unremarkable that it was, at least as a spectator. I was there at Mojave for the two X-prize qualifying flights, and we basically just watched a strange looking jet aircraft take off and spiral up into the sky, and then some time later witnessed a tiny thread of rocket exhaust as SpaceShipOne was drop launched so far away we couldn't even hear it.

The reason why I'm particular about this is because having super boring launches like this is generally a step in the right direction - well, as far as more affordable and commonplace spaceflight is concerned.

There have been ideas and even current plans by some companies to do balloon lofted rocket launches. There's also the concept of sea-based launches, whether from a floating platform or directly from the sea itself like the Sea Dragon concept.

Spaceflight and rockets don't have to involve a direct pad liftoff to count as a rocket launch.

Anyway, for all intents and purposes as far as spaceflight and aerospace rules and records are concerned, yes, this launch by Virgin Orbit originated and launched from Cornwall, but they should have probably waited for a successful flight before renaming the airport Cornwall Spaceport.
posted by loquacious at 9:15 AM on January 10, 2023 [3 favorites]


(note: I'm not gonna watch the 2+ hours of this to figure out how the interpretation was going otherwise, though.)

It was very inconsistent - lots of talking without interpretation at various points, interpreter suddenly appearing halfway through a conversation or speech, or suddenly disappearing halfway through. I would not like to have been relying on it.
posted by Dysk at 9:40 AM on January 10, 2023 [2 favorites]


loquacious, yes, this was a mission launched from Cornwall. But what it was not, was a rocket launched from Britain. The rocket is a separate vehicle in this instance. In fairness, I gather it did reach space (just not orbit) so calling it a space port is legit.

What isn't legit, at all, is how the British media is treating it - a British launch! New British space capability! It is neither of those things. It is an American mission from a UK [air/space]port to launch an American rocket over the Irish Sea. This launch is no more Britain's to take credit for than Black Arrow was Australia's.
posted by Dysk at 9:51 AM on January 10, 2023


Whenever something goes bad for Virgin or for Richard Branson, I just imagine Mike Oldfield reading about the news from whatever private tropical beach he owns, chuckling, and sipping his margarita.
posted by Tom Hanks Cannot Be Trusted at 11:14 AM on January 10, 2023 [4 favorites]


And Scott Manley just published a video about this failed launch: Why Did Virgin Orbit's First Launch From The UK Fail To Reach Orbit ?
posted by Pendragon at 11:20 AM on January 10, 2023


Also this is a perfect illustration of Brexit Britain - an utter disorganised shambles, that ends in disaster, premised on a lie ("British launch").

...and apparently done without much thought for the effects on Ireland.
posted by jedicus at 11:20 AM on January 10, 2023 [8 favorites]


The whole thing about being launched from British soil may be more about bureaucracy than geography. The payload for the failed launch had a lot of British government / defence stuff. There may be strict rules around transferring potentially classified hardware to other countries, even if they are as friendly as the US.
posted by meowzilla at 12:39 PM on January 10, 2023 [1 favorite]


Another bureaucratic aspect is that, to my layperson's understanding, a plane in flight is technically the territory of the country it took off from until it touches down in another country. (I heard about this in relation to US air marshals on international flights, so it may differ.)

So launching from the plane would still count as launching from Britain because the plane had taken off from Britain without landing anywhere else beforehand.
posted by The Pluto Gangsta at 3:33 PM on January 10, 2023


If that kind of "counts as" can substitute for "is" then this is far from the first launch from European soil, as every local media outlet loudly trumpeted. After all, ESA launch from French Guyana, which is part of France.
posted by Dysk at 3:49 PM on January 10, 2023


An interesting followup detail to this story is who has jurisdiction over the accident investigation. It's since been announced as being jointly supervised by both the US FAA and the UK's "Space Accident Investigation Authority" - a new job role that was assigned to its existing Air Accidents Investigation Branch in 2021. It's not clear whether this means we'll get a full AAIB report on the failure, but either way, they don't mess around so this should be interesting.
posted by automatronic at 7:01 PM on February 6, 2023


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