Saving Icarus
February 1, 2023 12:13 PM   Subscribe

On the 20th anniversary of the Space Shuttle Columbia disaster, Ars Technica published two articles; the first asks if NASA has fixed its safety culture, and the second, a reprint of a 2014 article with some updates, wonders if, had the damage to the ship's wing that occurred on launch been detected before they started reentry, the crew could have been saved. (Previously on the blue; Columbia previouslies) posted by Halloween Jack (44 comments total) 17 users marked this as a favorite
 
This is also a good summary of some of the political design "compromises" behind the physical designs.
posted by ensign_ricky at 12:36 PM on February 1, 2023 [11 favorites]


Wayne Hale's blog - the whole thing, he's been on the blue before but this article in particular - is worth your time.
posted by mhoye at 1:03 PM on February 1, 2023 [17 favorites]


A Cold War mystery: Why did Jimmy Carter save the space shuttle?

Spoiler alert: Spy Satellites
posted by JoeZydeco at 1:30 PM on February 1, 2023 [5 favorites]


It still boggles my mind that no one, you know, looked at the wing after they saw footage of the foam strike.
"Hey, it looks like a big piece of foam hit the wing. Maybe we should inspect it for damage?"
"Nah, I mathed a model. It's fine."
"Cool."
posted by indexy at 1:40 PM on February 1, 2023 [8 favorites]


So many things seem so improbable when you learn the story behind them. And yet we keep pulling off these improbable things!

I can still close my eyes and be transported back to 1984, sitting on the side of a road near Kennedy Space Center and watching Challenger take off. It just occurred to me to wonder whether my parents timed our family vacation around the launch or if it just worked out that way.
posted by The Underpants Monster at 1:51 PM on February 1, 2023 [2 favorites]


The perception of time is so strange. Usually it's like, "Wait, that was 30 years ago? It seems like 10." But in this case (perhaps for the first time) I'm thinking, "What? That was only 20 years ago?"

When I think of the Challenger what mostly grips me is that the crew performed all of their mission tasks knowing that there was a significant chance they'd not survive reentry. That would have weighed so heavily on me that I'd probably curl up into a ball. But, yeah, astronauts know it's a great privilege and honor to go into space and that danger is intrinsic to the job. They, like freeclimbers, probably even embrace the danger at least to some extent. But still, what a strange and ominous mission that must have been.
posted by sjswitzer at 2:10 PM on February 1, 2023 [6 favorites]


It was just inexcusable that they didn't do the EVA to make sure they understood the actual scope of damage before trying to land Columbia.
posted by Blue Jello Elf at 2:26 PM on February 1, 2023 [2 favorites]


The Long Winters: The Commander Thinks Aloud
posted by jazon at 2:31 PM on February 1, 2023 [4 favorites]


The rescue plan is a great read. Lots of "science-ing the shit out of it" going on in a short period of time. Heck I'd watch a Ron Howard docu-drama movie / miniseries on the attempted shuttle rescue in an instant.
posted by ensign_ricky at 2:31 PM on February 1, 2023 [5 favorites]


There was a comment that came up on the orange site today while discussing the Jimmy Carter / Cold War / Shuttle article, and it would also make an excellent movie.

Apparently one of the earliest proposed military missions for Shuttle (small PDF) was a one-orbit mission, where Shuttle would steal a Russian satellite out of orbit and glide it back to American soil before the Russians could figure out what was going on.
posted by JoeZydeco at 2:40 PM on February 1, 2023 [6 favorites]


The problem with doing the EVA to assess the damage is.... What would they do with that information if they had it?

Notwithstanding the very captivating and heartbreaking arstechnica article on a potential rescue mission, the one thing that seems to have been missing from that plan is how much time it would have taken to come up with that plan in the first place. Even if that plan, pondered at leisure, would have worked (and there are so many compounding ways it could have failed) a plan extemporized in the moment would have been so much worse.

Sadly, their only plan to get back to Mother Earth was to strap in and hope for the best.
posted by sjswitzer at 2:46 PM on February 1, 2023 [5 favorites]


The thousand mile cross range required for that never-flown once-around polar orbit satellite capture mission was a big driver of the Shuttle's oversized wings. Arguably partially responsible for the Columbia loss.
posted by rhamphorhynchus at 3:10 PM on February 1, 2023 [2 favorites]


I'll always remember waking up in my freshman dorm room, loading Slashdot, and seeing the news that Columbia had broken up. It seemed surreal; the room was very cold, and very quiet. My roommates (all three of them) were still asleep, and I could hear them snoring. I turned on the television anyway, and the room was filled with shaky coverage of Shuttle debris; stunned voices of news-creatures. It reminded me of 9/11. (A lot of things did back then, of course).
posted by Mr. Excellent at 3:19 PM on February 1, 2023 [4 favorites]


The problem with doing the EVA to assess the damage is.... What would they do with that information if they had it?

Put the best minds on the planet on the problem and definitely postponed returning for a bit.
posted by Brandon Blatcher at 3:20 PM on February 1, 2023 [2 favorites]


Sending up a rescue mission was really risky: you had to launch with the same system that had proven to have a fatal flaw. You couldend up losing two crews and two orbiters and saving nobody.
posted by rikschell at 3:25 PM on February 1, 2023 [1 favorite]


The only day I saw a now demo'd bowling alley's scorekeeping TVs showing broadcast programming. Also, my birthday.

.......
posted by JoeXIII007 at 3:49 PM on February 1, 2023 [2 favorites]


It's so weird to see just how much of a failure the Space Shuttle program was.

The Americans built 5 space shuttles starting in 1981 - Columbia, Challenger, Discovery, Atlantis and Endeavour. Challenger and Columbia were both destroyed in accidents in 1986 and 2003, killing all astronauts on board (total of 14 fatalities). With only 3 operational shuttles remaining and the evaluation that the risks inherent in the space shuttle's design could not be overcome, the program was retired in 2011 and the Americans started using the Soviet spacecraft instead.

The modern Soviet space program started in 1979 with the revamped Soyuz-T which, along with its upgrades, has remained operational until today without a single fatality. One of the reasons for this safety record is that it had a launch abort (ejection) system to save the cosmonauts if anything went wrong - which ended up being used twice to save the crew on board (1975 and 1983) - a key safety system that was entirely missing on the American Space Shuttle for cost reasons.

It feels like such a counter-factual history where the Soviets were the ones who prioritized safety and crew survival over the Americans.

Of course, there's a lot of beanplating behind it. The Shuttle was designed, as alluded to above, as a military vehicle that could go to space and steal Soviet satellites, which then resulted in its numerous design compromises.

And of course, my favourite theory, that the US decided to trash the Shuttle program and funnel money to the Russians instead by buying rides on the Soyuz after the breakup of the Soviet Union - keeping Russian rocket scientists gainfully employed in their Soyuz program, rather than have the Russian scientists start looking for employment in other countries (Iran, North Korea) and building ICBMs for them.

In the meantime since the US ended their Shuttle program the US scientists would be the ones working on missiles and rockets...

Also, now the US has Dragon - in terms of Cost Per Seat, it's been about $200-$250 mil per seat on the Shuttle, $90 mil per seat on Soyuz-T, and $55 mil per seat on Dragon.
posted by xdvesper at 3:59 PM on February 1, 2023 [11 favorites]


I've told it before and I'll tell it again. Back in 1983 I went to the first or maybe second ever Space Camp. I was thirteen. Our shuttle mission that I was the commander of, burned up on re-entry because of a damaged tile. Evidently I was supposed to send some other kid out on the 'space walk' to fix the damage, but I knew damn well that there was no way to fix a damaged tile, it wasn't something that was actually possible. They let us burn up. I killed my crew. I can't even describe what my mind was like when Columbia suffered the same fate. It's like I knew it was a cross your fingers and hope for the best and maybe.....

Just another tween/teen trauma event. Space Camp let thirteen year old me burn up on re-entry.
posted by zengargoyle at 4:12 PM on February 1, 2023 [28 favorites]


It still boggles my mind that no one, you know, looked at the wing after they saw footage of the foam strike.
"Hey, it looks like a big piece of foam hit the wing. Maybe we should inspect it for damage?"
"Nah, I mathed a model. It's fine."
"Cool."


It wasn't even the first time it happened.
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 4:34 PM on February 1, 2023 [2 favorites]


FDO, when you expecting tracking?
posted by tigrrrlily at 5:56 PM on February 1, 2023 [1 favorite]


Was the technology of the Buran vehicle any better than the NASA shuttle? I guess probably not, since it was never put into service, but I know hardly anything about it.
posted by maxwelton at 6:31 PM on February 1, 2023


When you "die" at Space Camp, are you kicked out, or do you lie in state (in your bunk, presumably) for the remainder of the time in camp?
posted by maxwelton at 6:34 PM on February 1, 2023 [8 favorites]


Buran is kind of fascinating. From this article:
Faced with the poorly understood threat of a military space shuttle, the Soviets decided that copying the American spacecraft exactly was the best bet. The logic was simple: if the Americans were planning something that needed a vehicle that big, the Soviets ought to build one as well and be ready to match their adversary even if they didn’t know exactly what they were matching.
posted by JoeZydeco at 6:41 PM on February 1, 2023 [3 favorites]


Was the technology of the Buran vehicle any better than the NASA shuttle? I guess probably not, since it was never put into service, but I know hardly anything about it.

It has jet engines, so it could do powered flight and from the start, it could operated remotely i.e. uncrewed. Supposedly this would have it react faster if a problem developed. It also had ejection seats for pilot and co-pilot.

But it only flew once, on an uncrewed test flight, so it's hard to say.
posted by Brandon Blatcher at 6:44 PM on February 1, 2023 [2 favorites]


I'll be the bad guy.

Spaceflight would be more affordable and more efficient if the acceptable deaths-per-thousand were evaluated against automobile deaths.
posted by metametamind at 8:31 PM on February 1, 2023 [3 favorites]


The Shuttle was designed, as alluded to above, as a military vehicle that could go to space and steal Soviet satellites

Just as James Bond foretold!
posted by kirkaracha at 9:36 PM on February 1, 2023


What is the orange site?
posted by Bottlecap at 9:44 PM on February 1, 2023 [2 favorites]


M-O-L-A-L-M-A-Z.
posted by clavdivs at 9:57 PM on February 1, 2023


It wasn't even the first time it happened.

There are interesting comparisons with STS-27. More broadly, there is a fascinating literature on safety culture, NASA, and the Shuttle.

The real story is much more complex than the simplified parables that have proliferated in journalism and too-simple 'lessons learned'. Diane Vaughan's "The Challenger Launch Decision" does a great job of showing in forensic detail how deadly-serious situations can arise from good people trying their best to be safe.

Similar points are made in Dekker's "Field Guide to Understanding 'Human Error'" and this YouTube video: Who Destroyed Three Mile Island? - Nickolas Means

Oh, and Leinbach et al's "Bringing Columbia Home: The Untold Story of a Lost Space Shuttle and Her Crew" gives a lot of human feeling to the tragedy, including among the wilderness firefighters who recovered much of the debris in near-impassable land.
posted by sindark at 12:02 AM on February 2, 2023 [7 favorites]


The orange site is Hacker News maybe? Shit, is that something we're not supposed to say lest a curse befall the blue?
posted by DeepSeaHaggis at 12:23 AM on February 2, 2023


I had not heard about STS-27 before. That's absolutely harrowing! And sounds like NASA learned the wrong lessons from it.
posted by rikschell at 5:12 AM on February 2, 2023


Was the technology of the Buran vehicle any better than the NASA shuttle? I guess probably not, since it was never put into service, but I know hardly anything about it.

Buran was carried to orbit by the Energia booster. The RD-170 engine was developed for the Energia. The RD-180 is a successor design. It now powers Atlas launches (among other applications). The Atlas family of rockets has been around since the 1950s, with many updates since then. Atlas rockets, in all their various forms, have flown over 600 missions. Mercury astronauts in the 1960s rode Atlas rockets. An Atlas with an RD-180 launched Perseverance on its way to Mars.

Buran — the orbiter — was not a success, and I have not read anything suggesting that it had any particular technological advantages. But the RD-170 and its successors have seen a lot of use. I believe that Atlas rockets will stop using the RD-180 at some point, but I don't know where things stand at the moment.
posted by compartment at 8:20 AM on February 2, 2023 [1 favorite]


I believe that Atlas rockets will stop using the RD-180 at some point, but I don't know where things stand at the moment.
The final batch of RD-180s was delivered to ULA a couple of years ago, so Atlas V will stop flying in the mid-2020s. Its successor, Vulcan, should launch for the first time in the first half of this year using BE-4 engines from Jeff Bezos' Blue Origin.
posted by rhamphorhynchus at 11:05 AM on February 2, 2023


I'll be the bad guy.

Spaceflight would be more affordable and more efficient if the acceptable deaths-per-thousand were evaluated against automobile deaths.


Really? The shuttle doesn't do well. Going by vehicle-miles:

Shuttle: 2.73 deaths per 100 million miles (14 deaths, 513.7 million miles)

UK, 2021: 0.52 fatalities per 100 million vehicle miles.

Per-mile is just about the best possible calculation for space flight as well, seeing as it flies really really fast. If instead we calculated deaths per flight-time (1323 days), then we get that it killed 0.01 astronauts per flight-day. Cars aren't that bad.
posted by Urtylug at 12:15 PM on February 2, 2023 [5 favorites]


Imagine if once every 65.7 times you turned the key on your car you suffered total loss of vehicle and crew. You'd be dead within a month of normal operation.
posted by vibrotronica at 12:52 PM on February 2, 2023 [3 favorites]


The US is nearly triple the UK in deaths per VMT, but things are far more spread out in the US than the UK; even with that space flight is about 3X as dangerous as driving.
posted by The_Vegetables at 1:06 PM on February 2, 2023


IMO, though, driving is coming off pretty poorly. I mean compared to thousands of gallons of rocket fuel and weeks of training for something legitimately dangerous, just driving to the store is pretty dangerous. And that's only deaths, not accidents and injuries.
posted by The_Vegetables at 1:10 PM on February 2, 2023


I feel like it's a matter of expectations vs. payoff. The huge fuel tank that the space shuttle was attached to on liftoff had the explosive potential of a small nuke, but there was no shortage of applications for the astronaut program; there were about twice as many people in it (even though they were extremely selective) as actually went up. Kind of like how about 10% of the people who left the base camp on Mount Everest never came back. But, you know, you get bragging rights for life.
posted by Halloween Jack at 7:30 PM on February 2, 2023


What made riding the Shuttle when the explosive bolts fired and no survivable abort modes opened up for harrowing minutes heroic was not the risk (BASE jumpers, in my view, are self-interested daredevils and not heroes) but accepting risk to serve a national purpose. All our lives have been enriched by the products of genuine space exploration - from Earth-sensing satellites to communication and navigation.

By contrast, space tourists just along for the thrill are neither heroes nor astronauts - no matter what the risk per hour or per mile of their entertainment. They're just ballast, with more money than fellow-feeling, and with no concern about the damage their pointless rocket launch causes to the rest of humanity and nature.
posted by sindark at 7:56 PM on February 2, 2023


space tourists just along for the thrill are neither heroes nor astronauts
IMO they are astronauts. Same as anyone who's been up in a passenger jet is an aeronaut, but no-one cares.
posted by rhamphorhynchus at 8:23 AM on February 3, 2023


I was a sci-fi kid. When I first saw Close Encounters of the Third Kind, I wanted to run through the screeen yelling, "Take me instead!" I've watched every bit of news and footage from the space program I could get my hands on. I used to make excuses to visit a former colleague who transfered to the Asronomy department of the university where we worked. And in the back of my mind somewhere, I've always kept that spark of hope alive that I'd finish out my life in some space colony somewhere.

But I felt myself profoundly moved by William Shatner's description of how his space flight affected him. Yes, he's a cranky old man (who used to be a cranky young man before becoming a cranky middle-aged man), I've disagreed with him on a great many things over the years, and I'm pretty sure I wouldn't get along with him if we were personally acquainted. But his account of how being in space just deepened his love for and commitment to Earth has allowed me to finally lay that spark to rest.

I'm not saying I want us to stop exploring, or even stop manned flights. But I no longer look for humanity's future in the stars instead of here at home. I have a renewed hope that we can fix the damage we've done in time for our grandchildren to thrive here. I don't know, maybe we should shoot all our politicians into space long enough for them to gain a little perspective.
posted by The Underpants Monster at 11:28 AM on February 3, 2023 [2 favorites]


I don't know, maybe we should shoot all our politicians into space long enough for them to gain a little perspective.

Absolutely not, they should probably be barred from going into space.

Most people, I believe, would down look at the Earth from space and develop a renewed love and commitment to saving the Earth and making it better for it.

Some people would look down at this blue and jewel that is our only home and think "Mine". Far too many politicians would be in this latter group, in my opinion.
posted by Brandon Blatcher at 11:53 AM on February 3, 2023 [1 favorite]


Friendly reminder that the current term of art is “crewed” spaceflight.
posted by rikschell at 12:07 PM on February 3, 2023 [5 favorites]


I was a sci-fi kid. When I first saw Close Encounters of the Third Kind, I wanted to run through the screeen yelling, "Take me instead!"

On rewatching CEofTK as an adult, it's so obvious that Spielberg's aliens are... complete and total assholes, starting from the very first scene, where we learn that the aliens have non-consensually abducted an entire Navy training squadron. Then trashing the fridge and luring Barry outside in one scene, then they come back, literally terrorize Jillian, and abduct A THREE YEAR OLD KID in another.
posted by mikelieman at 1:29 PM on February 3, 2023 [4 favorites]


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