the tip line
March 2, 2023 4:04 AM Subscribe
"...the combined effects of these tipping elements on global temperatures are likely much smaller than the effects of our emissions choices over the next three centuries. In other words, they make climate impacts worse but don't cause runaway warming. [...] Overall, climate tipping elements are less a looming cliff after which climate change spirals out of control and cannot be stopped, and more like a slope that is hard to climb back up, where the severity of consequences is determined based on how much the future climate warms." Zeke Hausfather has a twitter thread on a new "massive review of climate-tipping elements" of which he is a coauthor: Abstract and paywalled paper here, earlier and unpaywalled version here.
Good news? I'll take it.
posted by gwint at 6:46 AM on March 2, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by gwint at 6:46 AM on March 2, 2023 [2 favorites]
Is there a thread reader wrap for this? I really want to read it but being directed to do so via Twitter is frustrating.
Yeah I’m lazy and terrible but ?
posted by bumpkin at 6:51 AM on March 2, 2023
Yeah I’m lazy and terrible but ?
posted by bumpkin at 6:51 AM on March 2, 2023
I'm no good with these things but see if this threadreader link is more readable? Sorry, I could've put that in the post too I guess!
I don't want to threadsit, but here's why I posted: The linked paper is over a hundred pages long, and I haven't had a chance to read more than the abstract, and of course the thread. But from what I can gather from the discussion, the timing of these points is a good antidote to climate despair--especially the kind of panic-despair I think a lot of people feel when they first hear about the methane clathrates. The concept of tipping points has done more to frighten people than energize them, because it puts us in the wrong frame of mind. The idea that some of these tipping points will play out over decades or centuries helps put things into perspective: It's not at all time to give up, it's not time to say we're all doomed.
posted by mittens at 7:20 AM on March 2, 2023 [8 favorites]
I don't want to threadsit, but here's why I posted: The linked paper is over a hundred pages long, and I haven't had a chance to read more than the abstract, and of course the thread. But from what I can gather from the discussion, the timing of these points is a good antidote to climate despair--especially the kind of panic-despair I think a lot of people feel when they first hear about the methane clathrates. The concept of tipping points has done more to frighten people than energize them, because it puts us in the wrong frame of mind. The idea that some of these tipping points will play out over decades or centuries helps put things into perspective: It's not at all time to give up, it's not time to say we're all doomed.
posted by mittens at 7:20 AM on March 2, 2023 [8 favorites]
Good news?
not if you're fully invested in imminent catastrophe.
posted by philip-random at 8:40 AM on March 2, 2023 [2 favorites]
not if you're fully invested in imminent catastrophe.
posted by philip-random at 8:40 AM on March 2, 2023 [2 favorites]
god to humanity
so do you like your frogs microwaved or slowly boiled
just checkin'
posted by lalochezia at 8:46 AM on March 2, 2023 [1 favorite]
so do you like your frogs microwaved or slowly boiled
just checkin'
posted by lalochezia at 8:46 AM on March 2, 2023 [1 favorite]
because it puts us in the wrong frame of mind
you are right about that, mittens!
you could even say there's a tipping point in terms of the physiology of threat response, and I fear many of us have 'tipped' into a sort of immobilized fatalism.. I have my days.. but usually it's about one decision leading to the next and next thing you know you managed to put your pants on and you are out the door, and generally doing your best with the day. my nephew will become a father this month, life is complicated and beautiful and we are lucky (but also doomed).
posted by elkevelvet at 9:18 AM on March 2, 2023 [6 favorites]
you are right about that, mittens!
you could even say there's a tipping point in terms of the physiology of threat response, and I fear many of us have 'tipped' into a sort of immobilized fatalism.. I have my days.. but usually it's about one decision leading to the next and next thing you know you managed to put your pants on and you are out the door, and generally doing your best with the day. my nephew will become a father this month, life is complicated and beautiful and we are lucky (but also doomed).
posted by elkevelvet at 9:18 AM on March 2, 2023 [6 favorites]
Article is queued.
About other comments: manage your emotions however you need so that you can effectively contribute to the collective efforts to slow, stop and reverse the human destruction of the holocene earth. If you need hope or fear or calm or urgency, take what you need. There will always be others whose priority is to police your emotions to fit what they think will make you act or fail to act.
From the TT, emphasis mine.
Hausfather :" We find that these tipping elements may result in large impacts at a local or ecosystem level, and a number of them can exacerbate future warming beyond what is currently included in Earth system models
This is good news not because it says our situation is better than the previous consensus - it says the opposite. There is additional effects possibly large not already accounted into the existing models, which were grim enough.
Any improvement in our knowledge about the situation we are in is good news in a sense, for those who demand all news be good, because at least we need to understand the climate system in order to calibrate our actions. You can't fight a fire optimally if you are under the wrong impression about whether or not the house is saveable or the neighbors house is fire-proof etc.
For more than a decade and a half, folks -even here on the blue - have been trying to point out that ipcc concensus models are too conservative because they didn't include several anticipated feed back mechanisms and that the earth system may include irreversible hysterysis. Also that the emissions pathways include not-yet-invented GHG removal technologies at scale. And the economic assumptions were insane etc.
That tenative additional confirmation about some of these problems with the current models is being celebrated as "doomers were wrong and its only because they are invested in being doomers that they kept being party-poopers" seems to be a bit silly.
But celebrate the clearer picture of our predicament, commit to collective action. Our pollutionnis global, our damage is global, our efforts to date are not enough, our time is running out. The good news is that we were never going to live forever and that it has never been more clear that we must change before the earth system no longer supports our flourishing.
Pollutors and their enablers are wealthy , socially and politically powerful, they must be persuaded or defeated. The road to stability is long and steep and we must turn back from our disastrous course. Celebrate this news and take action.
posted by anecdotal_grand_theory at 9:35 AM on March 2, 2023 [7 favorites]
About other comments: manage your emotions however you need so that you can effectively contribute to the collective efforts to slow, stop and reverse the human destruction of the holocene earth. If you need hope or fear or calm or urgency, take what you need. There will always be others whose priority is to police your emotions to fit what they think will make you act or fail to act.
From the TT, emphasis mine.
Hausfather :" We find that these tipping elements may result in large impacts at a local or ecosystem level, and a number of them can exacerbate future warming beyond what is currently included in Earth system models
This is good news not because it says our situation is better than the previous consensus - it says the opposite. There is additional effects possibly large not already accounted into the existing models, which were grim enough.
Any improvement in our knowledge about the situation we are in is good news in a sense, for those who demand all news be good, because at least we need to understand the climate system in order to calibrate our actions. You can't fight a fire optimally if you are under the wrong impression about whether or not the house is saveable or the neighbors house is fire-proof etc.
For more than a decade and a half, folks -even here on the blue - have been trying to point out that ipcc concensus models are too conservative because they didn't include several anticipated feed back mechanisms and that the earth system may include irreversible hysterysis. Also that the emissions pathways include not-yet-invented GHG removal technologies at scale. And the economic assumptions were insane etc.
That tenative additional confirmation about some of these problems with the current models is being celebrated as "doomers were wrong and its only because they are invested in being doomers that they kept being party-poopers" seems to be a bit silly.
But celebrate the clearer picture of our predicament, commit to collective action. Our pollutionnis global, our damage is global, our efforts to date are not enough, our time is running out. The good news is that we were never going to live forever and that it has never been more clear that we must change before the earth system no longer supports our flourishing.
Pollutors and their enablers are wealthy , socially and politically powerful, they must be persuaded or defeated. The road to stability is long and steep and we must turn back from our disastrous course. Celebrate this news and take action.
posted by anecdotal_grand_theory at 9:35 AM on March 2, 2023 [7 favorites]
I’ve long assumed were in the jackpot - no single dramatic event, just lots of cumulative small shit that nobody dies anything about until we look around and say “oh wow, a bad thing happened.”
Always happy to be surprised by the occasional less bad thing, but god that’s rare.
posted by Artw at 10:03 AM on March 2, 2023
Always happy to be surprised by the occasional less bad thing, but god that’s rare.
posted by Artw at 10:03 AM on March 2, 2023
Pollutors and their enablers are wealthy , socially and politically powerful, they must be persuaded or defeated.
agree with pretty much everything in the comment except this part. In my experience, polluters are not uniformly wealthy or powerful. The most villainous ones are, I suppose, the ones who know (or are deliberately ignorant of) the reality yet continue to pursue their various enterprises because, push comes to shove, profit trumps all other concerns. But there are very many other smaller players who fumble along in ignorance or, often as not, need. Because they need to do the dirty work they're doing in order to survive, pay the rent or the mortgage, get food on the table, buy new shoes every now and then.
None of which changes this:
Thegood news is that we were never going to live forever and that it has never been more clear that we must change before the earth system no longer supports our flourishing.
to which I'd add a big part of changing the earth system requires getting more and more people to exit the ignorance and/or need cycle. Which is the definition of a complex challenge. Welcome to the real future, I guess, as opposed to the all too popular fictional post-apocalyptic zombie foo-furrahs we all can't seem to get enough of.
The future will be complex. To which I'd add this shard of business insight:
Complicated problems can be hard to solve, but they are addressable with rules and recipes, [...] They also can be resolved with systems and processes, like the hierarchical structure that most companies use to command and control employees.
The solutions to complicated problems don’t work as well with complex problems, however. Complex problems involve too many unknowns and too many interrelated factors to reduce to rules and processes. [...] There’s no algorithm that will tell you how to respond.
posted by philip-random at 10:14 AM on March 2, 2023 [3 favorites]
agree with pretty much everything in the comment except this part. In my experience, polluters are not uniformly wealthy or powerful. The most villainous ones are, I suppose, the ones who know (or are deliberately ignorant of) the reality yet continue to pursue their various enterprises because, push comes to shove, profit trumps all other concerns. But there are very many other smaller players who fumble along in ignorance or, often as not, need. Because they need to do the dirty work they're doing in order to survive, pay the rent or the mortgage, get food on the table, buy new shoes every now and then.
None of which changes this:
The
to which I'd add a big part of changing the earth system requires getting more and more people to exit the ignorance and/or need cycle. Which is the definition of a complex challenge. Welcome to the real future, I guess, as opposed to the all too popular fictional post-apocalyptic zombie foo-furrahs we all can't seem to get enough of.
The future will be complex. To which I'd add this shard of business insight:
Complicated problems can be hard to solve, but they are addressable with rules and recipes, [...] They also can be resolved with systems and processes, like the hierarchical structure that most companies use to command and control employees.
The solutions to complicated problems don’t work as well with complex problems, however. Complex problems involve too many unknowns and too many interrelated factors to reduce to rules and processes. [...] There’s no algorithm that will tell you how to respond.
posted by philip-random at 10:14 AM on March 2, 2023 [3 favorites]
While the OP doesnt focus on the distribution of different polluters and thus how responsibility is assigned, I'd like to posit a few things.
1) the source of opposition to the global regulatory policies comes from vested interests in the fossil fuel markets (companies and state actors - and their well funded propoganda campaigns and political corruption). 9 to 5 joe and Saleem the farmer are not giving your politicians breifcases of cash and they are not inventing propoganda campaigns. See Amy Westervelt for a journalistic recounting of that.
Furthermore, though individual per-capita pollution is not the be-all end-all, it is still the case that the top 10% of hyperconsumers are the current problem. Going from 10 private jet trips a year to 2 public economy plane trips a year avoids more pollution than going from 1 plane ride a decade to none.
All our lifestyles will change (because the biosphere is changing and the collective responses impact everyone) but the past and present pollution and the power to change it is not distributed evenly. It was and is in the hands of those at the top of the industrial hierachry.
Don't blame the pawns, checkmate the kings.
posted by anecdotal_grand_theory at 10:36 AM on March 2, 2023 [1 favorite]
1) the source of opposition to the global regulatory policies comes from vested interests in the fossil fuel markets (companies and state actors - and their well funded propoganda campaigns and political corruption). 9 to 5 joe and Saleem the farmer are not giving your politicians breifcases of cash and they are not inventing propoganda campaigns. See Amy Westervelt for a journalistic recounting of that.
Furthermore, though individual per-capita pollution is not the be-all end-all, it is still the case that the top 10% of hyperconsumers are the current problem. Going from 10 private jet trips a year to 2 public economy plane trips a year avoids more pollution than going from 1 plane ride a decade to none.
All our lifestyles will change (because the biosphere is changing and the collective responses impact everyone) but the past and present pollution and the power to change it is not distributed evenly. It was and is in the hands of those at the top of the industrial hierachry.
Don't blame the pawns, checkmate the kings.
posted by anecdotal_grand_theory at 10:36 AM on March 2, 2023 [1 favorite]
but from my angle, unless we do a far better job of communicating than we often do, the pawns will continue to align with the kings as they see their welfare as inextricably linked to them, which it too often is ... on the short term. It's as simple as keeping an office worker loyal to the corporation by providing a functional healthcare plan.
You want to checkmate the king? Turn the pawns.
posted by philip-random at 10:55 AM on March 2, 2023 [1 favorite]
You want to checkmate the king? Turn the pawns.
posted by philip-random at 10:55 AM on March 2, 2023 [1 favorite]
The tl; dr: 1) most of these things wont happen in our lifetime, if at all; 2) to fix the ones most likely to occur (coral reef demise, year-round ice free Arctic) will require 'aggressive' to 'extremely aggressive' action; 3) there is still much we don't know about how these things might interact with each other; 4) some are reversible (e.g. Arctic sea ice), others not so much; 5) some of the wilder claims around in the media (e.g. Hothouse Earth) are plausible, but unlikely and, at worst, far in our collective future.
As someone who is working on the downstream consequences of climate warming for natural ecosystems, I found this paper to be balm rather than bane, and see much to be optimistic about. However, I concur with others above, that we need to double down on the big emitters and not become mired in guilt and self-loathing over a crisis for which most of us are significantly less culpable than others. Instead we need to redouble our efforts to enact change at a societal scale. It's the least we can do.
posted by aeshnid at 10:55 AM on March 2, 2023 [2 favorites]
As someone who is working on the downstream consequences of climate warming for natural ecosystems, I found this paper to be balm rather than bane, and see much to be optimistic about. However, I concur with others above, that we need to double down on the big emitters and not become mired in guilt and self-loathing over a crisis for which most of us are significantly less culpable than others. Instead we need to redouble our efforts to enact change at a societal scale. It's the least we can do.
posted by aeshnid at 10:55 AM on March 2, 2023 [2 favorites]
From the lead author's twitter thread:
To conclude, tipping elements are not a cliff. The less we emit + faster we cut emissions, the fewer risks there are. Humans still have a lot of power to reduce their impact. We are not yet past tipping points, but some elements could start to cross thresholds within decades.
With emissions as the most important factor affecting future climate both now + into the future, there is no tipping point beyond which climate efforts cease to matter.
Every tenth of a degree matters. Changing human activities--deforestation, coral reef fishing--matters too.
This is a drum I have beaten here on metafilter a couple of times before. I think of it as applying the concept of harm reduction to the entire biosphere. I am glad that other people are having similar ideas.
If you feel immobilized by the immensity of it, just remember:
It all matters. Every piece matters. Even the little things matter.
posted by cubeb at 2:18 PM on March 2, 2023 [6 favorites]
To conclude, tipping elements are not a cliff. The less we emit + faster we cut emissions, the fewer risks there are. Humans still have a lot of power to reduce their impact. We are not yet past tipping points, but some elements could start to cross thresholds within decades.
With emissions as the most important factor affecting future climate both now + into the future, there is no tipping point beyond which climate efforts cease to matter.
Every tenth of a degree matters. Changing human activities--deforestation, coral reef fishing--matters too.
This is a drum I have beaten here on metafilter a couple of times before. I think of it as applying the concept of harm reduction to the entire biosphere. I am glad that other people are having similar ideas.
If you feel immobilized by the immensity of it, just remember:
It all matters. Every piece matters. Even the little things matter.
posted by cubeb at 2:18 PM on March 2, 2023 [6 favorites]
yeah, I can think a few people (not here) who almost get offended when I suggest there's a glimmer of hope. They'd never admit it in so many words but they hate the idea that it matters what they do.
posted by philip-random at 3:04 PM on March 2, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by philip-random at 3:04 PM on March 2, 2023 [1 favorite]
Zeke Hausfather like Michael Mann has pushed hard against frightening people. We're discussing large time scales with large error bars here too. Ergo, really these authors could only report these conclusions when discussing tipping points.
We do think methane clathrates and others have caused +10°C warming long ago, but importantly over a semi-geological time, so sure tipping points sound "smaller than the effects of our emissions choices over the next three centuries".
We clearly have enormous theoretical agency which should be communicated in whatever way prompts action. Yet, overall Mann does considerable harm by asserting that negative sounding scientific results discourage activism. Ain't so simple..
In particular, we've other works saying "Eventual global warming due to today's GHG forcing alone - after slow feedbacks operate - is about +10°C." (James Hansen et al. 2022), or earlier work that "exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points".
Is there disagreement between these papers by Hansen and Hausfather? I'm sure they'd both say so, about ocean uptake in particular, but among top researcher these disagreements sometimes wind up smaller than claimed or kinda orthogonal to the truth.
In particular, it always matters how fast warming occurs, even if we'll remain hotter than we'd like, because all life forms including ourselves adapt over generations. It's always our choice how fast our climate changes.
posted by jeffburdges at 3:43 PM on March 2, 2023
We do think methane clathrates and others have caused +10°C warming long ago, but importantly over a semi-geological time, so sure tipping points sound "smaller than the effects of our emissions choices over the next three centuries".
We clearly have enormous theoretical agency which should be communicated in whatever way prompts action. Yet, overall Mann does considerable harm by asserting that negative sounding scientific results discourage activism. Ain't so simple..
In particular, we've other works saying "Eventual global warming due to today's GHG forcing alone - after slow feedbacks operate - is about +10°C." (James Hansen et al. 2022), or earlier work that "exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points".
Is there disagreement between these papers by Hansen and Hausfather? I'm sure they'd both say so, about ocean uptake in particular, but among top researcher these disagreements sometimes wind up smaller than claimed or kinda orthogonal to the truth.
In particular, it always matters how fast warming occurs, even if we'll remain hotter than we'd like, because all life forms including ourselves adapt over generations. It's always our choice how fast our climate changes.
posted by jeffburdges at 3:43 PM on March 2, 2023
As other good news, world CO2 emissions increased by only 1% in 2022, down from the high 6% increase of 2021 when the economy rebounded.
Although the IEA only mentioned renewables and efficiency measures, the recession should've lowered emissions significantly in 2022 too, given the almost perfect correlation between economic activity and energy usage.
IEA mentions earlier fears the energy crisis would result in higher emissions, but never propose any mechanism. I suppose LNG shipments leak more methane, likely oil and coal shipment burn more oil too.
posted by jeffburdges at 11:23 PM on March 2, 2023
Although the IEA only mentioned renewables and efficiency measures, the recession should've lowered emissions significantly in 2022 too, given the almost perfect correlation between economic activity and energy usage.
IEA mentions earlier fears the energy crisis would result in higher emissions, but never propose any mechanism. I suppose LNG shipments leak more methane, likely oil and coal shipment burn more oil too.
posted by jeffburdges at 11:23 PM on March 2, 2023
That IEA is good news and its a stark reminder that atmospheric GHG increasing by a larger amount than last year being called good news shows how dark out normal expectations are.
I can't think of another area outside of climate where the damage being done this year being larger than last year is considered a win. But it is with pollution. 1% more school shootings, or rapes or genocide wouldn't be considered a win. But our expectations for pollution are so skewed that speeding up the pollution is a win because it could have sped up even more.
We are hopefully bending the growth arc.
Emissions don't just need to stop rising, they need to fall, and they need to fall all the way down, past zero, and go negative, and stay there for centuries to reduce the elevated GHG concentrations back down to pre-industrial levels and then lower than that to bleed off the excess heat and compensate for the lost ice and the albedo changes it has caused.
This year is a start. It is always the right time to stop heading in the wrong direction and turn around.
posted by anecdotal_grand_theory at 1:16 AM on March 3, 2023
I can't think of another area outside of climate where the damage being done this year being larger than last year is considered a win. But it is with pollution. 1% more school shootings, or rapes or genocide wouldn't be considered a win. But our expectations for pollution are so skewed that speeding up the pollution is a win because it could have sped up even more.
We are hopefully bending the growth arc.
Emissions don't just need to stop rising, they need to fall, and they need to fall all the way down, past zero, and go negative, and stay there for centuries to reduce the elevated GHG concentrations back down to pre-industrial levels and then lower than that to bleed off the excess heat and compensate for the lost ice and the albedo changes it has caused.
This year is a start. It is always the right time to stop heading in the wrong direction and turn around.
posted by anecdotal_grand_theory at 1:16 AM on March 3, 2023
“Here’s what a 5°C global warming, ocean acidification event that lasted for 200,000 years looks like in a sediment core pulled up from the bottom of the ocean. We’ll probably leave something similar behind in the rocks”. - Peter Brannen
And “more extreme CO2-driven warming events have resulted in the worst things that have ever happened in the geologic history of the planet.”
Also, inland temperatures change much more than ocean temperatures:
Wisconsin cave holds tantalizing clues to ancient climate changes, future shifts
“Using another technique, they identified the isotopes in the tiny layers, revealing that present-day southern Wisconsin experienced a number of very large average temperature swings of up to 10°C between 48,000 and 68,000 years ago.”
“Several of the temperature swings occurred over the course of around a decade.”
(via David Wallace-Wells)
posted by jeffburdges at 2:11 PM on March 4, 2023
And “more extreme CO2-driven warming events have resulted in the worst things that have ever happened in the geologic history of the planet.”
Also, inland temperatures change much more than ocean temperatures:
Wisconsin cave holds tantalizing clues to ancient climate changes, future shifts
“Using another technique, they identified the isotopes in the tiny layers, revealing that present-day southern Wisconsin experienced a number of very large average temperature swings of up to 10°C between 48,000 and 68,000 years ago.”
“Several of the temperature swings occurred over the course of around a decade.”
(via David Wallace-Wells)
posted by jeffburdges at 2:11 PM on March 4, 2023
"Within recorded history, climate changes have been linked with the faltering of the Hongshan & Yangshao cultures, the Akkadian Empire, the Bronze Age, the Roman Empire, the Ptolemaic Empire, Ancestral Puebloans, the Khmer Empire, Classic Maya... But recorded history is nothing." - Peter Brannen
posted by jeffburdges at 4:43 PM on March 4, 2023
posted by jeffburdges at 4:43 PM on March 4, 2023
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