Withering Green Rush: California Cannabis Breeding at a Crossroads
August 5, 2023 11:54 AM Subscribe
Most people struggling through cannabis prohibition wanted legalization or at least decriminalization, and to empty the prisons. But the way legalization was implemented in California, it remained unclear if the crop was a drug or an agricultural product; stuck in limbo with the worst of both options proved in time to be the worst way to go. Overregulating certain aspects, treating cannabis as a drug, and under-regulating other aspects led to an economy-of-scale agricultural consolidation... We are left in a situation where the rich history of California cannabis is being eliminated one farm at a time.
By Ali Bektaş for the LA Review of Books
By Ali Bektaş for the LA Review of Books
it's ..
posted by clavdivs at 1:21 PM on August 5, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by clavdivs at 1:21 PM on August 5, 2023 [2 favorites]
it becomes harder and harder to see the slow bungling implementations of medical and recreational programs in varying states as anything other than a set-up for the largest players to dominate the market
Did anyone really expect it to be unlike the rest of agriculture?
I also don’t know how I feel about romanticization of the “old” (relatively) large-scale growers, but that’s another story.
At least you can still grow your own.
posted by atoxyl at 1:33 PM on August 5, 2023 [13 favorites]
Did anyone really expect it to be unlike the rest of agriculture?
I also don’t know how I feel about romanticization of the “old” (relatively) large-scale growers, but that’s another story.
At least you can still grow your own.
posted by atoxyl at 1:33 PM on August 5, 2023 [13 favorites]
High Drama: A Cannabis Biotech Company Roils Small Growers (Wired, 2019)
posted by snuffleupagus at 1:41 PM on August 5, 2023
posted by snuffleupagus at 1:41 PM on August 5, 2023
Only in some states is that legal.
It is an interesting article. It does suggest that these mega-farms are not doing a very good job of growing quality weed. High THC, or highly extractable for vapes and edibles, but otherwise dull, prone to disease, etc. Let alone the farm workers they are hiring. Also not to mention all the water a lot of these farms are stealing to grow their crops.
But if consumption of the product is going up, you need more product. Even if it is relatively boring. Which capitalism will take down to the lowest common denominator it can, while still making a profit. And continued federal/banking illegality makes it hard to create a coop of small growers, who's quality products you can sell.
OTOH, weed is ridiculously cheap in some legal states, so yay capitalism...?
posted by Windopaene at 1:50 PM on August 5, 2023 [3 favorites]
It is an interesting article. It does suggest that these mega-farms are not doing a very good job of growing quality weed. High THC, or highly extractable for vapes and edibles, but otherwise dull, prone to disease, etc. Let alone the farm workers they are hiring. Also not to mention all the water a lot of these farms are stealing to grow their crops.
But if consumption of the product is going up, you need more product. Even if it is relatively boring. Which capitalism will take down to the lowest common denominator it can, while still making a profit. And continued federal/banking illegality makes it hard to create a coop of small growers, who's quality products you can sell.
OTOH, weed is ridiculously cheap in some legal states, so yay capitalism...?
posted by Windopaene at 1:50 PM on August 5, 2023 [3 favorites]
There are plenty of documentaries about how murderous and crimey Mendocino is. Romanticizing California's weed is romanticizing death and horror. I'm all for standardization, where at the very least you know exactly how much THC is in that gummy you just bought. Those hippie warlords can go walk off a cliff for all I care.
posted by grumpybear69 at 2:07 PM on August 5, 2023 [23 favorites]
posted by grumpybear69 at 2:07 PM on August 5, 2023 [23 favorites]
> OTOH, weed is ridiculously cheap...
As psychoactive articles of commerce go, yes. As an agricultural product?
Maybe the closest parallel is tea. The most expensive teas in the world (not counting things that are aged, or that come from individual legendary trees) costs about $3.50/g.
That expense is almost all down to the inherent rarity of the product: the growing area that produces "the real thing" is tiny compared to demand. Relax the constraints a tiny bit, so that the cost is due to the expenses of production (which includes paying the people who make it like skilled craftspeople earning first-world wages) and the cost goes down to more like $1/g.
Relax the constraints a little more, to admit teas that a practiced connoisseur can tell are not so very first rate and the cost drops another factor of three.
Somewhere around $0.30/g is the "natural" free-market price for really good weed, I'm suggesting. Pure 100% hand-tooled artisan harvest at maybe $1/g.
That's before taxes of course. But at free-market prices, weed good enough to stay high on all the time would be so cheap it's practically free.
posted by Aardvark Cheeselog at 2:17 PM on August 5, 2023 [5 favorites]
As psychoactive articles of commerce go, yes. As an agricultural product?
Maybe the closest parallel is tea. The most expensive teas in the world (not counting things that are aged, or that come from individual legendary trees) costs about $3.50/g.
That expense is almost all down to the inherent rarity of the product: the growing area that produces "the real thing" is tiny compared to demand. Relax the constraints a tiny bit, so that the cost is due to the expenses of production (which includes paying the people who make it like skilled craftspeople earning first-world wages) and the cost goes down to more like $1/g.
Relax the constraints a little more, to admit teas that a practiced connoisseur can tell are not so very first rate and the cost drops another factor of three.
Somewhere around $0.30/g is the "natural" free-market price for really good weed, I'm suggesting. Pure 100% hand-tooled artisan harvest at maybe $1/g.
That's before taxes of course. But at free-market prices, weed good enough to stay high on all the time would be so cheap it's practically free.
posted by Aardvark Cheeselog at 2:17 PM on August 5, 2023 [5 favorites]
Saffron? Real wasabi? Truffles?
posted by snuffleupagus at 2:42 PM on August 5, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by snuffleupagus at 2:42 PM on August 5, 2023 [3 favorites]
The current tilting of the market towards the biggest players is a bad thing. I’m not really all that concerned, though, if this is the price we pay for the state no longer being able to ruin people’s lives because they had weed.
posted by azpenguin at 2:57 PM on August 5, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by azpenguin at 2:57 PM on August 5, 2023 [3 favorites]
Did anyone really expect it to be unlike the rest of agriculture?
Are ex-narcs dominating traditional agriculture?
posted by srboisvert at 3:23 PM on August 5, 2023
Are ex-narcs dominating traditional agriculture?
posted by srboisvert at 3:23 PM on August 5, 2023
One thing that bothers me about WI, as much as I want it, I see how rat-bastard the R's are running this place. They want Only Cancer for Weed or something stupid. you must be literally on hospice if you want any. IDK. It's dumb, and my reps have been pushing for years. One lady finally gets cancer and it helps her so NOW she's all like - well of course i want it but only for ME and what *I* had. None for thee.
Being between MI and IL - and at least having had many IL purchases the past few years, I want a MI style market where they basically give you shit for free it's so plentiful. There's problems there with some overproduction and things. I do think MI could stand a little more regulation, but... Compared to WALMARTIFICATION (hi Sunnyside, love: your WI "superspender") - give me a small mom and pop I can walk into and not have to wait an hour just to get what I came for.
posted by symbioid at 3:31 PM on August 5, 2023 [4 favorites]
Being between MI and IL - and at least having had many IL purchases the past few years, I want a MI style market where they basically give you shit for free it's so plentiful. There's problems there with some overproduction and things. I do think MI could stand a little more regulation, but... Compared to WALMARTIFICATION (hi Sunnyside, love: your WI "superspender") - give me a small mom and pop I can walk into and not have to wait an hour just to get what I came for.
posted by symbioid at 3:31 PM on August 5, 2023 [4 favorites]
Which states offer the best regulatory environment for cheap and high quality weed?
posted by symbioid at 3:31 PM on August 5, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by symbioid at 3:31 PM on August 5, 2023 [1 favorite]
Which states offer the best regulatory environment for cheap and high quality weed?
Virginia! It's legal to grow and have but not sale, so therefore it's free!
or something like that.
posted by 922257033c4a0f3cecdbd819a46d626999d1af4a at 3:49 PM on August 5, 2023 [2 favorites]
Virginia! It's legal to grow and have but not sale, so therefore it's free!
or something like that.
posted by 922257033c4a0f3cecdbd819a46d626999d1af4a at 3:49 PM on August 5, 2023 [2 favorites]
There are plenty of documentaries about how murderous and crimey Mendocino is. Romanticizing California's weed is romanticizing death and horror.
As someone who spent the majority of my life working in the black/grey market side of the industry in Mendocino County I did not see a lot of "death and horror" IMO the documentaries I have seen have been as sensationalized as any other true crime as entertainment media. They do touch on some important stories, and there may be better ones than I have seen, but you can make any place seem scary if you rely on anecdotes, ominous music, and grainy video filters on footage of the trashiest looking place you can find.
Not to say that there were not issues with violence in the C.A.M.P times or in the current post green rush wreckage. The cartel money coming in, and the racism that resulted as a pushback are big issues, without recourse to law enforcement people are left vulnerable and that can lead to some horrible things.
But even leaving aside the contributions to the current canibus industry that is now leaving it behind, it is an area that remained relatively prosperous when a lot of other areas built on logging were turning into pretty grim places as that industry moved on, and that prosperity led to a place with a pretty unique and interesting culture that I am fine romanticizing a little.
I grew up around a mostly gay intentional community and went to the experimental school that they ran. The area was a big hub of radical environmental activism, the push for alternative energy, the Neopagan movement, some really good punk music, and a lot of shitty white guy reggae. It was a deeply weird place in a way that it could never have been without being built on a black market.
Crime absolutely leads to some terrible outcomes, but crime also keeps a lot of people without other options out of crushing poverty, and gives them a little power in society they would not otherwise have.
posted by St. Sorryass at 3:53 PM on August 5, 2023 [24 favorites]
As someone who spent the majority of my life working in the black/grey market side of the industry in Mendocino County I did not see a lot of "death and horror" IMO the documentaries I have seen have been as sensationalized as any other true crime as entertainment media. They do touch on some important stories, and there may be better ones than I have seen, but you can make any place seem scary if you rely on anecdotes, ominous music, and grainy video filters on footage of the trashiest looking place you can find.
Not to say that there were not issues with violence in the C.A.M.P times or in the current post green rush wreckage. The cartel money coming in, and the racism that resulted as a pushback are big issues, without recourse to law enforcement people are left vulnerable and that can lead to some horrible things.
But even leaving aside the contributions to the current canibus industry that is now leaving it behind, it is an area that remained relatively prosperous when a lot of other areas built on logging were turning into pretty grim places as that industry moved on, and that prosperity led to a place with a pretty unique and interesting culture that I am fine romanticizing a little.
I grew up around a mostly gay intentional community and went to the experimental school that they ran. The area was a big hub of radical environmental activism, the push for alternative energy, the Neopagan movement, some really good punk music, and a lot of shitty white guy reggae. It was a deeply weird place in a way that it could never have been without being built on a black market.
Crime absolutely leads to some terrible outcomes, but crime also keeps a lot of people without other options out of crushing poverty, and gives them a little power in society they would not otherwise have.
posted by St. Sorryass at 3:53 PM on August 5, 2023 [24 favorites]
Did anyone really expect it to be unlike the rest of agriculture?
Expect?
No not really.
But there was an amount of hope, and a good amount of activism and and good work done in the attempt to shape legislation in a way that big business would not completely take over.
It may have been an inevitability, but I think there are a lot of scenarios where state legalization looked a lot different than what we got.
posted by St. Sorryass at 4:00 PM on August 5, 2023 [5 favorites]
Expect?
No not really.
But there was an amount of hope, and a good amount of activism and and good work done in the attempt to shape legislation in a way that big business would not completely take over.
It may have been an inevitability, but I think there are a lot of scenarios where state legalization looked a lot different than what we got.
posted by St. Sorryass at 4:00 PM on August 5, 2023 [5 favorites]
I'd compare it to beer. I'm glad that there are small, craft, high-quality brewers (because that is what I like to drink), but it's ok that there are huge producers like Bud and Coors also. If weed was federally legalized, the bulk of the market for sure would get taken by large, industrial-scale producers, unless there was a regulatory regime that tried to stop that for some reason. As long as there isn't complete regulatory capture by the big players that locks out the craft producers, I don't see a problem with having big players in the game.
I get why the author is unhappy, but overall I'm not convinced by the argument.
posted by Dip Flash at 4:45 PM on August 5, 2023 [6 favorites]
I get why the author is unhappy, but overall I'm not convinced by the argument.
posted by Dip Flash at 4:45 PM on August 5, 2023 [6 favorites]
VT did the legal-to-grow-but illegal-to-sell thing for a few years before legal recreational sales, and I thought that was a good thing. It certainly knocked the price down and probably killed the black market.
Now I'm hearing a number of problems. One is that the dispensary system, which I think had pretty high [sic] standards and good quality control, is losing customers to the retail market. (This seems similar to TFA)
Another is that the banking system seems to favor only certain kinds of loans. If you have been growing pot for decades, and maybe have some kind of arrest record, you can't get a startup loan while the VC-types can open a store.
Another thing- the recent floods here wiped out a lot of businesses in town, and most of them got some federal assistance, but not the pot store, because...
posted by MtDewd at 5:16 PM on August 5, 2023 [1 favorite]
Now I'm hearing a number of problems. One is that the dispensary system, which I think had pretty high [sic] standards and good quality control, is losing customers to the retail market. (This seems similar to TFA)
Another is that the banking system seems to favor only certain kinds of loans. If you have been growing pot for decades, and maybe have some kind of arrest record, you can't get a startup loan while the VC-types can open a store.
Another thing- the recent floods here wiped out a lot of businesses in town, and most of them got some federal assistance, but not the pot store, because...
posted by MtDewd at 5:16 PM on August 5, 2023 [1 favorite]
Saffron? Real wasabi? Truffles?
That stuff is very fussy and rare. Weed grows much more like turnips or apples.
posted by Meatbomb at 5:23 PM on August 5, 2023 [2 favorites]
That stuff is very fussy and rare. Weed grows much more like turnips or apples.
posted by Meatbomb at 5:23 PM on August 5, 2023 [2 favorites]
I read this a few years back and thought that I had found it via Metafilter, but I can't find it in a search here.
Anyway, related - How Legalization Changed Humboldt County Marijuana
posted by mmrtnt at 5:30 PM on August 5, 2023 [1 favorite]
Anyway, related - How Legalization Changed Humboldt County Marijuana
posted by mmrtnt at 5:30 PM on August 5, 2023 [1 favorite]
Weed grows much more like turnips or apples.
Sure, if you’re just growing for extraction or whatever. Top-shelf flower is a lot closer to… well, high end flowers (like roses), since that’s what they are. I’d love to see someone break down the “how” of the $.30/g “natural market price of really good weed” mentioned upthread that doesn’t involve either near-immediate business failure or de-facto slavery.
posted by not just everyday big moggies at 5:51 PM on August 5, 2023 [1 favorite]
Sure, if you’re just growing for extraction or whatever. Top-shelf flower is a lot closer to… well, high end flowers (like roses), since that’s what they are. I’d love to see someone break down the “how” of the $.30/g “natural market price of really good weed” mentioned upthread that doesn’t involve either near-immediate business failure or de-facto slavery.
posted by not just everyday big moggies at 5:51 PM on August 5, 2023 [1 favorite]
That New Yorker article on Humboldt was published four years ago. Here's how it's looking in the featured town of Garberville as of early 2023, from CalMatters.
posted by to wound the autumnal city at 6:07 PM on August 5, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by to wound the autumnal city at 6:07 PM on August 5, 2023 [4 favorites]
the “how” of the $.30/g “natural market price of really good weed” mentioned upthread
Unless my math is poor, that's even lower than the recent drop to $200/pound wholesale price that the author complains about. Even commodity weed (high potency but not artisanal) is being grown on a small scale right now, but just imagine what commodity weed prices would look like if farmers in Iowa were given the option of planting weed on some spare acreage instead of soy.
posted by Dip Flash at 7:01 PM on August 5, 2023 [3 favorites]
Unless my math is poor, that's even lower than the recent drop to $200/pound wholesale price that the author complains about. Even commodity weed (high potency but not artisanal) is being grown on a small scale right now, but just imagine what commodity weed prices would look like if farmers in Iowa were given the option of planting weed on some spare acreage instead of soy.
posted by Dip Flash at 7:01 PM on August 5, 2023 [3 favorites]
it's interesting that the legal market is know competing with the illegal market when it was the latter mere years ago There is a glut. The better growers of artisanal weed don't really need the legal market, to much hassle though that's not really on the farm scale. The real truimph is the citizen can grow there own. Producing a half pound for about $30-40 is cheap.
posted by clavdivs at 7:28 PM on August 5, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by clavdivs at 7:28 PM on August 5, 2023 [1 favorite]
the “how” of the $.30/g “natural market price of really good weed” mentioned upthread
These are just quick google search figures and could be way off but going to assume ideal conditions, do a bit of napkin math.
For the most part what people are paying the most for is grown indoors, and hand trimmed so I am going to go with that.
Some cost estimates for building a 20,000 square foot grow space.
The low end of construction. $6,380,000
The low end of operating costs.$1,063,500 Not including processing, licensing, labor, transport, etc.
lets say 5 fulltime employees, for the sake of the argument lets pay them minimum wage, so around another $100,000.
For hand trimming, my experience is that a really good trimmer can get through a pound in about 5 hours, so at minimum wage that would be cost a little under $200k to get processed if your crew is really good.
So with labor around 1.3m a year, lets just ignore licensing and fees for now because I do not really want to look them up.
Lets be optimistic about yield and say 80g per square foot per harvest and 5 harvests a year. So we are getting 8,000,000g a year if we have zero contamination or other issues.
The current suggested markup for a retailer is a suggested 100% to make a 15% profit, I am sure the business model would be completely different with the price difference, but I have no idea how so I am just going to keep it.
So we are wholesaling for $.15 for a gross profit of $1,200,000 and almost covering our annual costs.
Lets get rid of the hand trimming, say we also own the method of distribution rather than retailing and it, and that scaling the operation way up gets us some deals on power and water and it seems like $.3/g is technically possible.
I probably made some big math error or forgot some big costs somewhere in there though.
posted by St. Sorryass at 7:56 PM on August 5, 2023 [2 favorites]
These are just quick google search figures and could be way off but going to assume ideal conditions, do a bit of napkin math.
For the most part what people are paying the most for is grown indoors, and hand trimmed so I am going to go with that.
Some cost estimates for building a 20,000 square foot grow space.
The low end of construction. $6,380,000
The low end of operating costs.$1,063,500 Not including processing, licensing, labor, transport, etc.
lets say 5 fulltime employees, for the sake of the argument lets pay them minimum wage, so around another $100,000.
For hand trimming, my experience is that a really good trimmer can get through a pound in about 5 hours, so at minimum wage that would be cost a little under $200k to get processed if your crew is really good.
So with labor around 1.3m a year, lets just ignore licensing and fees for now because I do not really want to look them up.
Lets be optimistic about yield and say 80g per square foot per harvest and 5 harvests a year. So we are getting 8,000,000g a year if we have zero contamination or other issues.
The current suggested markup for a retailer is a suggested 100% to make a 15% profit, I am sure the business model would be completely different with the price difference, but I have no idea how so I am just going to keep it.
So we are wholesaling for $.15 for a gross profit of $1,200,000 and almost covering our annual costs.
Lets get rid of the hand trimming, say we also own the method of distribution rather than retailing and it, and that scaling the operation way up gets us some deals on power and water and it seems like $.3/g is technically possible.
I probably made some big math error or forgot some big costs somewhere in there though.
posted by St. Sorryass at 7:56 PM on August 5, 2023 [2 favorites]
Not including processing, licensing, labor, transport, etc.
lets just ignore licensing and fees for now because I do not really want to look them up.
Also testing and certification, environmental compliance, storage, packaging, security, non-fantasy costs for power and water, various kinds of insurance, marketing, and taxes. For starters.
Vertical integration is often disfavored; you may not be able to get a license to grow, distribute and retail.
Plus the whole problem of the operation still being Federally illegal.
You can't actually locate your legal grow in Galt's Gulch.
posted by snuffleupagus at 5:31 AM on August 6, 2023
lets just ignore licensing and fees for now because I do not really want to look them up.
Also testing and certification, environmental compliance, storage, packaging, security, non-fantasy costs for power and water, various kinds of insurance, marketing, and taxes. For starters.
Vertical integration is often disfavored; you may not be able to get a license to grow, distribute and retail.
Plus the whole problem of the operation still being Federally illegal.
You can't actually locate your legal grow in Galt's Gulch.
posted by snuffleupagus at 5:31 AM on August 6, 2023
Vertical integration is often disfavored; you may not be able to get a license to grow, distribute and retail.
Or, conversely, in Florida, vertical integration is mandatory. You can't just grow, you have to come in and do everything fully integrated, which obviously makes it pretty much impossible to even step into the market without massive funding.
posted by Tomorrowful at 5:49 AM on August 6, 2023 [1 favorite]
Or, conversely, in Florida, vertical integration is mandatory. You can't just grow, you have to come in and do everything fully integrated, which obviously makes it pretty much impossible to even step into the market without massive funding.
posted by Tomorrowful at 5:49 AM on August 6, 2023 [1 favorite]
Sure, if you’re just growing for extraction or whatever. Top-shelf flower is a lot closer to… well, high end flowers (like roses), since that’s what they are.
This is an interesting claim I'm trying to understand in terms of markets. Industrial floriculture is certainly a thing, although it is subject to different demands and needs than edible products; for one thing, most selected plant lines destined for cut flowers are subject to the same constraints that result in gorgeous, gigantic, sturdy, tasteless tomatoes and apples in grocery stores.
Are you making this comparison to roses rather than tea because flowers are a different part of the plant that is often less productive in terms of yield, or because cannabis flower is subject to different selective constraints than tea leaves?
I'm just curious, because we totally do grow other flowers for harvest on an industrial scale, and the costs are still not that high. Think about sunflower seeds or industrially produced lavender.
Now, none of that can compare to products with a strong boutique market like coffee or tea, where prices rise substantially because customers like wide variations of the product itself. Tea doesn't actually derive a lot of its variations from the strain of the plants that produce the leaves; most variation in tea comes down to differences in processing. Coffee or perhaps chocolate might be a better comparison that way but I don't think anyone in the US really wants to work off the production model of either industry.
posted by sciatrix at 7:08 AM on August 6, 2023 [2 favorites]
This is an interesting claim I'm trying to understand in terms of markets. Industrial floriculture is certainly a thing, although it is subject to different demands and needs than edible products; for one thing, most selected plant lines destined for cut flowers are subject to the same constraints that result in gorgeous, gigantic, sturdy, tasteless tomatoes and apples in grocery stores.
Are you making this comparison to roses rather than tea because flowers are a different part of the plant that is often less productive in terms of yield, or because cannabis flower is subject to different selective constraints than tea leaves?
I'm just curious, because we totally do grow other flowers for harvest on an industrial scale, and the costs are still not that high. Think about sunflower seeds or industrially produced lavender.
Now, none of that can compare to products with a strong boutique market like coffee or tea, where prices rise substantially because customers like wide variations of the product itself. Tea doesn't actually derive a lot of its variations from the strain of the plants that produce the leaves; most variation in tea comes down to differences in processing. Coffee or perhaps chocolate might be a better comparison that way but I don't think anyone in the US really wants to work off the production model of either industry.
posted by sciatrix at 7:08 AM on August 6, 2023 [2 favorites]
The trajectory of prices that the article talks about has happened in most if not all places where there has been legalization. There was a sweet spot for growers when enforcement basically stopped, removing most of their risk, but things were still mostly illegal, so they could get high prices. In the article, that's when he cites $4500/pound prices. Then, with actual legalization, the supply increase and prices plummet. He talks about a new low of $200/pound in California. I don't know prices here, but friends who grow casually and used to sell it now mostly give it away, seeing the current prices as too low to be worth pursuing.
Those peak prices were the result of a unique moment and no one should be expecting them to last under legalization. If I had to guess, we haven't seen the bottom of the market yet since so many places haven't had legalization and even in legal places there are huge barriers to getting into the market as a legal grower. As legalization increases and regulatory regimes settle out, supply should expand and commodity prices will drop.
But that is for commodity prices. There will (I assume) also be demand for high-end, artisanal weed that can command higher prices. Just like people are willing to pay thousands of dollars a bottle for high-end bourbon, there's going to be a demand for high-end weed. Keeping with the bourbon analogy, most people will buy the plastic jug with a handle, but some people will want "top shelf" for a small premium in price, and some people are going to want the rare stuff, for a really high price. The market will continue to segment, which will be good for the small number of growers/suppliers who can target the top of the market.
posted by Dip Flash at 7:10 AM on August 6, 2023 [2 favorites]
Those peak prices were the result of a unique moment and no one should be expecting them to last under legalization. If I had to guess, we haven't seen the bottom of the market yet since so many places haven't had legalization and even in legal places there are huge barriers to getting into the market as a legal grower. As legalization increases and regulatory regimes settle out, supply should expand and commodity prices will drop.
But that is for commodity prices. There will (I assume) also be demand for high-end, artisanal weed that can command higher prices. Just like people are willing to pay thousands of dollars a bottle for high-end bourbon, there's going to be a demand for high-end weed. Keeping with the bourbon analogy, most people will buy the plastic jug with a handle, but some people will want "top shelf" for a small premium in price, and some people are going to want the rare stuff, for a really high price. The market will continue to segment, which will be good for the small number of growers/suppliers who can target the top of the market.
posted by Dip Flash at 7:10 AM on August 6, 2023 [2 favorites]
After a lifetime of being a strong advocate of legalization, and initial joy as it started happening as a lifelong cannabis aficionado, I've become utterly disgusted with the cannabis industrial complex both for the business practices and gold rush/regulatory capture ethics and the environmental and carbon-burning travesty it's become. I'm very happily growing 20 pounds a year in my back yard with minimal cost and almost no electricity involved, and giving it away at scale. And I'm a very serious gardener, these ain't mids. My shit kicks the ass of most dispensary weed. Just like my homegrown tomatoes leave anything you can buy at a store in the dust.
It's a plant. It's no harder to grow than tomatoes and peppers. It is in no way like saffron or truffles. It's hard not to succeed at it if you know the first thing about horticulture.
Once you get it going you'll have way too much on hand all the time, throw buds you don't like on the compost, and lots of happy friends (beats the hell out of leaving zucchini on their porches). Fuck their taxes, their markups, their investors, their huge carbon footprint. I actively cheer for the collapse.
posted by spitbull at 7:22 AM on August 6, 2023 [17 favorites]
It's a plant. It's no harder to grow than tomatoes and peppers. It is in no way like saffron or truffles. It's hard not to succeed at it if you know the first thing about horticulture.
Once you get it going you'll have way too much on hand all the time, throw buds you don't like on the compost, and lots of happy friends (beats the hell out of leaving zucchini on their porches). Fuck their taxes, their markups, their investors, their huge carbon footprint. I actively cheer for the collapse.
posted by spitbull at 7:22 AM on August 6, 2023 [17 favorites]
Also I predict that in ten years almost all commercial cannabis sold in the US will be grown on industrial scale farms in Mexico, just like avocados. The cost delta between growing under lights and growing under the sun is insane. And the sun grown product is just better. I'll die on that hill.
Oh and don't get me started on the plastic waste involved in the commercial dispensary business.
My garden is 100% organic too. I'm smoking and eating this stuff, keep your solvents and pesticides and chemical fertilizers far away from me.
My state allows generous home grow limits and here in the country everyone grows their own and laughs at the tourist prices at dispensaries.
posted by spitbull at 7:36 AM on August 6, 2023 [5 favorites]
Oh and don't get me started on the plastic waste involved in the commercial dispensary business.
My garden is 100% organic too. I'm smoking and eating this stuff, keep your solvents and pesticides and chemical fertilizers far away from me.
My state allows generous home grow limits and here in the country everyone grows their own and laughs at the tourist prices at dispensaries.
posted by spitbull at 7:36 AM on August 6, 2023 [5 favorites]
And sorry to pepper the thread but I really hope to inspire people to beat this wasteful, corrupt, overpriced industry by growing their own, so here's a fact: not counting the value of my labor (which is a joy and pleasure most of the time), I have estimated it costs me about 15 cents a gram to grow the stuff, counting all other inputs.
GrowWeedEasy.com is a great place to start your journey.
posted by spitbull at 7:45 AM on August 6, 2023 [9 favorites]
GrowWeedEasy.com is a great place to start your journey.
posted by spitbull at 7:45 AM on August 6, 2023 [9 favorites]
The problem for a lot of people is that even in legal states it is usually grounds for eviction. Such as in California, where most leases will explicitly include violations of Federal law.
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:49 AM on August 6, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:49 AM on August 6, 2023 [4 favorites]
Make friends with people who can grow safely at home. Last year I gave away about 14 pounds of the stuff. We always have way too much.
And work to change those laws: it isn't a pharmaceutical. It's a crop. You should be able to buy it at a local farmers market f I had my way. Federal legalization is bound to come soon.
posted by spitbull at 7:51 AM on August 6, 2023 [3 favorites]
And work to change those laws: it isn't a pharmaceutical. It's a crop. You should be able to buy it at a local farmers market f I had my way. Federal legalization is bound to come soon.
posted by spitbull at 7:51 AM on August 6, 2023 [3 favorites]
It's hard not to succeed at it if you know the first thing about horticulture.
It's hard not to succeed at it even if you don't.
I do not have a green thumb but pot (and garlic) are so easy even I can do it.
posted by MtDewd at 8:41 AM on August 6, 2023 [3 favorites]
It's hard not to succeed at it even if you don't.
I do not have a green thumb but pot (and garlic) are so easy even I can do it.
posted by MtDewd at 8:41 AM on August 6, 2023 [3 favorites]
The biggest problem for most people (at least in climates like mine) will be spider mites. Which can be hard to control in vegetable gardens too.
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:48 AM on August 6, 2023
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:48 AM on August 6, 2023
It's called "weed" for a reason. It is proverbially easy to grow. Where I used to live in northern New England, people would scatter seeds out in the woods on walks, and occasionally the cops would stumble on some plants, declare it a "grow op", and burn down an acre or so of forest for a publicity stunt.
I was a small at the time and I heard about this by spying on adults, so it's filtered through their opinions and mine- though I did witness one of these burns with my own eyes, and it was a place where I had frequently walked. I don't remember ever seeing any cannabis plants there, but then, even today, I'm not sure I would recognize one if I saw it. I'm lucky if I can recognize a rosemary bush.
posted by Rev. Irreverent Revenant at 1:45 PM on August 6, 2023 [1 favorite]
I was a small at the time and I heard about this by spying on adults, so it's filtered through their opinions and mine- though I did witness one of these burns with my own eyes, and it was a place where I had frequently walked. I don't remember ever seeing any cannabis plants there, but then, even today, I'm not sure I would recognize one if I saw it. I'm lucky if I can recognize a rosemary bush.
posted by Rev. Irreverent Revenant at 1:45 PM on August 6, 2023 [1 favorite]
I'm very happily growing 20 pounds a year in my back yard with minimal cost and almost no electricity involved, and giving it away at scale...
... Last year I gave away about 14 pounds of the stuff.
Doing the math here suggests your household consumption is impressive.
posted by Dip Flash at 2:15 PM on August 6, 2023 [6 favorites]
... Last year I gave away about 14 pounds of the stuff.
Doing the math here suggests your household consumption is impressive.
posted by Dip Flash at 2:15 PM on August 6, 2023 [6 favorites]
In a couple years industrial scale weed won’t be grown, exactly. It’ll be synthesized THC sprayed on hemp, or used in vape carts/edibles. High quality real flower will still be available for a premium (or from a friendly gardener) but your bud light grade - synthetic. I’m willing to wager on this because I know people who have been gray market synthesizing, perfecting the process and preparing to sell it in bulk to industrial scale grow ops. The upside is total control of your product - only the cannabinoids you want, at the percentage you want. I sure miss the days of $4000 pounds though, even though I’m glad nobody’s really getting locked up any more.
posted by youthenrage at 2:30 PM on August 6, 2023
posted by youthenrage at 2:30 PM on August 6, 2023
There was a sweet spot for growers when enforcement basically stopped, removing most of their risk, but things were still mostly illegal, so they could get high prices. In the article, that's when he cites $4500/pound prices.
The $4500 days were at the height of the federal eradication programs. People were losing their land and doing serious prison time, and they were seizing and burning enough to make a real dent in supply. (This price was of course what brought people with a different risk tolerance into the industry, and things started to get violent). Most grows at the time were like little 5-10 plant grows camouflaged out in the woods, and even those could get helicopters landing in your yard if it looked like you had assets worth taking or they did not have anything better to do that day.
I would say the sweet spot in terms of risk/reward, when you could make an OK lower to middle class living and be fairly confident that for the most part, the only risk was financial was once the "medical" clubs really got going in the Bay Area. In my county you could put in 25 plants out in the open, run things like a real business, hire a crew, and sell to people who you knew were not going to rob you. I would say this was a period of about 10 years with the price going from about $2500 down to $1200 or so with the early days of recreational legalization.
posted by St. Sorryass at 8:00 PM on August 6, 2023 [1 favorite]
The $4500 days were at the height of the federal eradication programs. People were losing their land and doing serious prison time, and they were seizing and burning enough to make a real dent in supply. (This price was of course what brought people with a different risk tolerance into the industry, and things started to get violent). Most grows at the time were like little 5-10 plant grows camouflaged out in the woods, and even those could get helicopters landing in your yard if it looked like you had assets worth taking or they did not have anything better to do that day.
I would say the sweet spot in terms of risk/reward, when you could make an OK lower to middle class living and be fairly confident that for the most part, the only risk was financial was once the "medical" clubs really got going in the Bay Area. In my county you could put in 25 plants out in the open, run things like a real business, hire a crew, and sell to people who you knew were not going to rob you. I would say this was a period of about 10 years with the price going from about $2500 down to $1200 or so with the early days of recreational legalization.
posted by St. Sorryass at 8:00 PM on August 6, 2023 [1 favorite]
How is synthetic THC made?
There are a few things called synthetic THC.
There was the old designer drugs like Spice and K2 that you could buy at your sketchier gas stations, that I do not think really have much of a market anymore.
There is a bioengineered yeast that can produce THC as well as some other cannabinoids from sugar, but I do not know if anyone is actually doing that.
What you mostly see called synthetic THC are Delta 8 THC and THC-O-acetate which are mostly made from CBD extracted from hemp. (they can also be made from regular style THC I think.)
These were big for awhile, and possibly still are, because there was a huge glut of CBD on the market that no one could get rid of, and they could be sold in states where pot was not legal.
In a couple years industrial scale weed won’t be grown, exactly. It’ll be synthesized THC sprayed on hemp.
Why?
Unless I am really behind on what the process/business is like I do not know why this would make sense in states already legalized aside from maybe for legal/tax reasons.
It seems like the process of growing hemp, extracting CBD, doing a bunch of lab work, and then growing more hemp to add the THC back to, or extracting the other cannabinoids and synthesizing terpenes for a vape, is going to cost a lot more than just growing some pot, and either squishing it for extract or selling it.
I could see some people preferring the effects of THC-0 or Δ8, (I am not really a pot guy and kind of liked Δ8 the one time I tried it.) but I think most people who enjoy pot prefer the real thing.
posted by St. Sorryass at 1:48 AM on August 7, 2023 [4 favorites]
There are a few things called synthetic THC.
There was the old designer drugs like Spice and K2 that you could buy at your sketchier gas stations, that I do not think really have much of a market anymore.
There is a bioengineered yeast that can produce THC as well as some other cannabinoids from sugar, but I do not know if anyone is actually doing that.
What you mostly see called synthetic THC are Delta 8 THC and THC-O-acetate which are mostly made from CBD extracted from hemp. (they can also be made from regular style THC I think.)
These were big for awhile, and possibly still are, because there was a huge glut of CBD on the market that no one could get rid of, and they could be sold in states where pot was not legal.
In a couple years industrial scale weed won’t be grown, exactly. It’ll be synthesized THC sprayed on hemp.
Why?
Unless I am really behind on what the process/business is like I do not know why this would make sense in states already legalized aside from maybe for legal/tax reasons.
It seems like the process of growing hemp, extracting CBD, doing a bunch of lab work, and then growing more hemp to add the THC back to, or extracting the other cannabinoids and synthesizing terpenes for a vape, is going to cost a lot more than just growing some pot, and either squishing it for extract or selling it.
I could see some people preferring the effects of THC-0 or Δ8, (I am not really a pot guy and kind of liked Δ8 the one time I tried it.) but I think most people who enjoy pot prefer the real thing.
posted by St. Sorryass at 1:48 AM on August 7, 2023 [4 favorites]
The $4500 days were at the height of the federal eradication programs. People were losing their land and doing serious prison time, and they were seizing and burning enough to make a real dent in supply.
Without arguing with you, I'll just note that the article identifies this peak price spot at a slightly different point in time, after medical legalization but prior to legalization elsewhere (which I think is the overall point you are making as well):
The passing of Prop 215 opened the way for dispensaries to operate in California....
In the hills of Northern California, in what is known as the Emerald Triangle (Mendocino, Trinity, and the infamous Humboldt County), farmers became more and more fearless....
Of course, there was still repression, but to a much lesser degree. The relative safety from persecution also meant that a space was created for the many amateur breeders....
Yield wasn’t as important a factor for selection as one would imagine in that lower-risk, higher-margin situation. A pound of high-quality indoor cannabis could easily fetch $4,500, especially as the gray medical market in California and the national black market were very much intertwined at the turn of the millennium.
posted by Dip Flash at 6:29 AM on August 7, 2023
Without arguing with you, I'll just note that the article identifies this peak price spot at a slightly different point in time, after medical legalization but prior to legalization elsewhere (which I think is the overall point you are making as well):
The passing of Prop 215 opened the way for dispensaries to operate in California....
In the hills of Northern California, in what is known as the Emerald Triangle (Mendocino, Trinity, and the infamous Humboldt County), farmers became more and more fearless....
Of course, there was still repression, but to a much lesser degree. The relative safety from persecution also meant that a space was created for the many amateur breeders....
Yield wasn’t as important a factor for selection as one would imagine in that lower-risk, higher-margin situation. A pound of high-quality indoor cannabis could easily fetch $4,500, especially as the gray medical market in California and the national black market were very much intertwined at the turn of the millennium.
posted by Dip Flash at 6:29 AM on August 7, 2023
Also I predict that in ten years almost all commercial cannabis sold in the US will be grown on industrial scale farms in Mexico, just like avocados. The cost delta between growing under lights and growing under the sun is insane
I think that's a big part of the point of this essay. We're going to start growing cannabis outdoors in huge fields like any other commercial crop, so we're going to need new cultivars that produce the desired products under those conditions. Whether that's ultra-high THC for extraction or especially aromatic flowers or other combinations of cannabinoids that become commercially desirable, those strains will need to be bred and grown and we need to keep in mind the land and the farmers and everything else that we've managed to screw up with, for example, GMO corn.
Honestly, though, cannabis is so cheap to grow, the yields are so high, and the average consumer uses so little (let's be honest: the people consuming as little as a gram a day are already waaay at the skinny end of the curve), I (admittedly, a dummy) don't really understand how the economics would work under truly industrial production.
posted by uncleozzy at 12:47 PM on August 7, 2023
I think that's a big part of the point of this essay. We're going to start growing cannabis outdoors in huge fields like any other commercial crop, so we're going to need new cultivars that produce the desired products under those conditions. Whether that's ultra-high THC for extraction or especially aromatic flowers or other combinations of cannabinoids that become commercially desirable, those strains will need to be bred and grown and we need to keep in mind the land and the farmers and everything else that we've managed to screw up with, for example, GMO corn.
Honestly, though, cannabis is so cheap to grow, the yields are so high, and the average consumer uses so little (let's be honest: the people consuming as little as a gram a day are already waaay at the skinny end of the curve), I (admittedly, a dummy) don't really understand how the economics would work under truly industrial production.
posted by uncleozzy at 12:47 PM on August 7, 2023
No jurisdiction in the US currently taxes cannabis sensibly, on the basis of potency. At some point most of the retail cost of a gram will be taxes, of the black market can every be gotten rid of.
posted by Aardvark Cheeselog at 2:49 PM on August 8, 2023
posted by Aardvark Cheeselog at 2:49 PM on August 8, 2023
No jurisdiction in the US currently taxes cannabis sensibly, on the basis of potency.
Is that not exactly what NY’s potency tax is?
posted by not just everyday big moggies at 3:29 PM on August 8, 2023
Is that not exactly what NY’s potency tax is?
posted by not just everyday big moggies at 3:29 PM on August 8, 2023
Yeah, NY taxes per mg of THC, although frankly I’m not sure how it works, exactly.
But also, when most of the cost of the product is tax, I would think you’d wind up with an even bigger black market (cf cigarette smuggling).
posted by uncleozzy at 4:41 PM on August 8, 2023
But also, when most of the cost of the product is tax, I would think you’d wind up with an even bigger black market (cf cigarette smuggling).
posted by uncleozzy at 4:41 PM on August 8, 2023
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