The Big Fail
November 6, 2023 10:53 AM Subscribe
New book analyzes the United State's response to the COVID pandemic. Why did so many countries follow China's lead in strict lockdowns? Were lockdowns helpful in averting excess deaths during the COVID pandemic? What can this teach us about reacting to new public health emergencies? The Big Fail, by Vanity Fair's Beth McLean and the New York Times Joe Nocera. As suggested by the title, they think things could have gone better.
Seeing history being rewritten while the pandemic is still ongoing explains a lot about the 1918 flu pandemic.
posted by Yowser at 11:07 AM on November 6, 2023 [69 favorites]
posted by Yowser at 11:07 AM on November 6, 2023 [69 favorites]
Admittedly I skimmed this, but I don't see anything about paying people to stay home. The US's unwillingness to help people actually lock down has to have made a difference. I don't see how you can talk about the success or failure of lockdown and only look at what rules we had on paper, not the social conditions surrounding those rules. I mean Canada has about 1/8 the population of the US and had about 1/25 as many deaths, and a big part of that has to have been that they paid people to stay home instead of saying, "please stay home, oh you can't afford it? welp, you're on your own."
posted by joannemerriam at 11:18 AM on November 6, 2023 [67 favorites]
posted by joannemerriam at 11:18 AM on November 6, 2023 [67 favorites]
Yeah… this closely resembles the student evaluations one might get from a university student who completed half or less of the classwork and stopped attending class entirely halfway through the semester, yet blames the instructor for their lack of learning and poor grade in the course. Except with the student, it’s most often an ego protective mechanism of some sort, while this comes across as simply intellectually dishonest in the conflation of the type of strict lockdowns in China, the successful regional lockdowns in areas such as New Zealand or the Canadian Maritime provinces, and the half-assed collection of abbreviated semi-lockdowns to mild suggestions that went mostly ignored that we saw across various states in the US; and in the elision of a large degree of detail about the goals or purpose of a lockdown.
posted by eviemath at 11:23 AM on November 6, 2023 [23 favorites]
posted by eviemath at 11:23 AM on November 6, 2023 [23 favorites]
Admittedly I skimmed this, but I don't see anything about paying people to stay home.
The United States did pay people to stay home in the form of expanded unemployment benefits to the tune of an additional $600 a week for workers who lost their job during the pandemic, a large portion of which lost their job due to state-mandated lockdown orders.
What else could the federal government have (legally) done? Pay people to quit their jobs?
posted by rhymedirective at 11:30 AM on November 6, 2023 [8 favorites]
The United States did pay people to stay home in the form of expanded unemployment benefits to the tune of an additional $600 a week for workers who lost their job during the pandemic, a large portion of which lost their job due to state-mandated lockdown orders.
What else could the federal government have (legally) done? Pay people to quit their jobs?
posted by rhymedirective at 11:30 AM on November 6, 2023 [8 favorites]
What fraction of America actually was locked down (e.g., working from home or students attending school remotely)?
I have been WFH for 3+ years, but so many people had jobs that couldn't be done remotely.
posted by wenestvedt at 11:33 AM on November 6, 2023 [4 favorites]
I have been WFH for 3+ years, but so many people had jobs that couldn't be done remotely.
posted by wenestvedt at 11:33 AM on November 6, 2023 [4 favorites]
Did the virus truly go away during a lockdown or simply hide, waiting to reemerge when it ended?
Wasn't that the whole point of the lockdowns? Suppress the spread until there's a vaccine? He mentions Italy and New York--it was actually happening all over the country where hospitals were so overloaded that you often couldn't get in for cancer or heart treatments. There were a lot of excess deaths for all health problems, not just Covid.
And people didn't know what the death rate was at first. An earlier SARS outbreak had a 10% death rate, up to 50% for those over 65, so being overly cautious at first was probably smart (maybe not as much in hindsight, but we can't make decisions in hindsight).
This is a very opinionated and one sided article.
posted by eye of newt at 11:35 AM on November 6, 2023 [19 favorites]
Wasn't that the whole point of the lockdowns? Suppress the spread until there's a vaccine? He mentions Italy and New York--it was actually happening all over the country where hospitals were so overloaded that you often couldn't get in for cancer or heart treatments. There were a lot of excess deaths for all health problems, not just Covid.
And people didn't know what the death rate was at first. An earlier SARS outbreak had a 10% death rate, up to 50% for those over 65, so being overly cautious at first was probably smart (maybe not as much in hindsight, but we can't make decisions in hindsight).
This is a very opinionated and one sided article.
posted by eye of newt at 11:35 AM on November 6, 2023 [19 favorites]
What else could the federal government have (legally) done? Pay people to quit their jobs?
UBI test run. /s
posted by Selena777 at 11:42 AM on November 6, 2023 [22 favorites]
UBI test run. /s
posted by Selena777 at 11:42 AM on November 6, 2023 [22 favorites]
Wasn't that the whole point of the lockdowns? Suppress the spread until there's a vaccine?
I'm still reading it, but the article seems to make clear that yes, this is the one thing that even critics of lockdowns agree on. To quote from the article:
Simply put, flattening the curve was about helping hospitals manage the crisis rather than ending the crisis. Even those who later criticized lockdowns largely agreed on this point. As David Nabarro, the World Health Organization’s COVID-19 envoy (and an eventual lockdown critic), put it, “The only time we believe a lockdown is justified is to buy you time to reorganize, regroup, rebalance your resources, protect your health workers who are exhausted, but by and large we’d rather not do it.”
posted by coffeecat at 11:42 AM on November 6, 2023 [4 favorites]
I'm still reading it, but the article seems to make clear that yes, this is the one thing that even critics of lockdowns agree on. To quote from the article:
Simply put, flattening the curve was about helping hospitals manage the crisis rather than ending the crisis. Even those who later criticized lockdowns largely agreed on this point. As David Nabarro, the World Health Organization’s COVID-19 envoy (and an eventual lockdown critic), put it, “The only time we believe a lockdown is justified is to buy you time to reorganize, regroup, rebalance your resources, protect your health workers who are exhausted, but by and large we’d rather not do it.”
posted by coffeecat at 11:42 AM on November 6, 2023 [4 favorites]
What else could the federal government have (legally) done?
See joannemerriam’s comment. The Canadian benefits didn’t go quite far enough even, but were much more significant and comprehensive than the US economic supports to individuals and businesses.
posted by eviemath at 11:44 AM on November 6, 2023 [6 favorites]
See joannemerriam’s comment. The Canadian benefits didn’t go quite far enough even, but were much more significant and comprehensive than the US economic supports to individuals and businesses.
posted by eviemath at 11:44 AM on November 6, 2023 [6 favorites]
from the article...
But it’s time to be clear about the fact that lockdowns for any purpose other than keeping hospitals from being overrun in the short-term were a mistake that should not be repeated.
...were there lockdowns for any other purpose?
In many blue states, however, that rationale was forgotten over time, and many people remained confined to their homes or apartments not just for a few weeks but for a year or more
"Confined"???
I lived through and worked against the pandemic in one of the earliest, hardest-hit cities in the world, and this article makes me question my own experience - relying on hyperbole instead of documentation. It feels like it's got an axe to grind instead of making a cold assessment of things.
posted by entropone at 11:44 AM on November 6, 2023 [46 favorites]
But it’s time to be clear about the fact that lockdowns for any purpose other than keeping hospitals from being overrun in the short-term were a mistake that should not be repeated.
...were there lockdowns for any other purpose?
In many blue states, however, that rationale was forgotten over time, and many people remained confined to their homes or apartments not just for a few weeks but for a year or more
"Confined"???
I lived through and worked against the pandemic in one of the earliest, hardest-hit cities in the world, and this article makes me question my own experience - relying on hyperbole instead of documentation. It feels like it's got an axe to grind instead of making a cold assessment of things.
posted by entropone at 11:44 AM on November 6, 2023 [46 favorites]
To start off by suggesting that the 'lockdown' in Wuhan was in any way equivalent to the 'lockdown' experienced by Americans in general is ridiculous. They even say "many people remained confined to their homes or apartments not just for a few weeks but for a year or more", which is just absurd. Seems like this is just more anti-public health ideology.
posted by ssg at 11:45 AM on November 6, 2023 [37 favorites]
posted by ssg at 11:45 AM on November 6, 2023 [37 favorites]
I note that containment and contact tracing have worked in the past to prevent eg. the first SARS outbreak from becoming a pandemic in the first place. Containment and quarantine being localized versions of a lockdown. That is one use beyond simply buying time.
posted by eviemath at 11:47 AM on November 6, 2023 [7 favorites]
posted by eviemath at 11:47 AM on November 6, 2023 [7 favorites]
To start off by suggesting that the 'lockdown' in Wuhan was in any way equivalent to the 'lockdown' experienced by Americans in general is ridiculous.
The article doesn't suggest that at all - quite the opposite. It even acknowledges that how different medical studies defined "lockdown" within the US differed.
posted by coffeecat at 11:50 AM on November 6, 2023 [1 favorite]
The article doesn't suggest that at all - quite the opposite. It even acknowledges that how different medical studies defined "lockdown" within the US differed.
posted by coffeecat at 11:50 AM on November 6, 2023 [1 favorite]
See joannemerriam’s comment. The Canadian benefits didn’t go quite far enough even, but were much more significant and comprehensive than the US economic supports to individuals and businesses.
...that's the comment I was responding to.
All I see about Canada is that the Canadian federal government paid federal workers to stay home and that they paid additional (but less generous than the U.S.) unemployment benefits.
The United States also handed out loans to businesses like candy and then forgave them.
posted by rhymedirective at 11:50 AM on November 6, 2023 [3 favorites]
...that's the comment I was responding to.
All I see about Canada is that the Canadian federal government paid federal workers to stay home and that they paid additional (but less generous than the U.S.) unemployment benefits.
The United States also handed out loans to businesses like candy and then forgave them.
posted by rhymedirective at 11:50 AM on November 6, 2023 [3 favorites]
Never forget the heroic front line workers who were overworked, under supported, frequently not paid nearly enough to risk their lives (And there were covid deaths in my building at minimum) and due to generally R reasons, not going to get most of the expanded benefits or government help.
Though it was hilarious when the company had both a months long mandatory overtime, and a no questions asked unpaid time off policy simultaneously. Sigh. Never have I felt more like slave labor.
posted by Jacen at 11:57 AM on November 6, 2023 [13 favorites]
Though it was hilarious when the company had both a months long mandatory overtime, and a no questions asked unpaid time off policy simultaneously. Sigh. Never have I felt more like slave labor.
posted by Jacen at 11:57 AM on November 6, 2023 [13 favorites]
Again, when another virus surfaces--and believe me, it will at some point--we are so so so fucked.
If we are willing to rewrite history, uninterested in coming up with more comprehensive and less drastic response for the next nasty down the pike, continually placing the interests of businesses and corporations before people, we probably deserve what we get.
No one liked life being put on pause for so long. No one. But we didn't know what we were dealing with or how best to protect ourselves, so we did the best we could. One of the greatest failures of the pandemic lies not with the lockdown, but with the fact the US elected a fucking monster that happened to be in power when one struck. I suspect things might have been better if his toxic presence hadn't been there.
posted by Kitteh at 11:58 AM on November 6, 2023 [33 favorites]
If we are willing to rewrite history, uninterested in coming up with more comprehensive and less drastic response for the next nasty down the pike, continually placing the interests of businesses and corporations before people, we probably deserve what we get.
No one liked life being put on pause for so long. No one. But we didn't know what we were dealing with or how best to protect ourselves, so we did the best we could. One of the greatest failures of the pandemic lies not with the lockdown, but with the fact the US elected a fucking monster that happened to be in power when one struck. I suspect things might have been better if his toxic presence hadn't been there.
posted by Kitteh at 11:58 AM on November 6, 2023 [33 favorites]
Total deaths from all causes, per million people, from the start of Covid to now, from Our World in Data:
New Zealand - 70
Canada - 180
UK - 371
USA - 404
Americans have been five times as likely to die from the pandemic than Kiwis. The number of deaths follows directly from the acceptance of public health measures.
This really isn't rocket science. We know what makes public health work. The "public" part is the important part - you can't be a healthy individual in a sick society. So that means lock-downs but it also means health care for everyone, not just the rich few.
For much of the past three years, New Zealand's total excess deaths were negative. Fewer people died from all causes than expected, because lock-downs and social distancing protected us from influenza and other infectious diseases, as well as Covid.
Behaving as if we have a responsibility for each others' health results in better health overall.
posted by happyinmotion at 11:58 AM on November 6, 2023 [74 favorites]
New Zealand - 70
Canada - 180
UK - 371
USA - 404
Americans have been five times as likely to die from the pandemic than Kiwis. The number of deaths follows directly from the acceptance of public health measures.
This really isn't rocket science. We know what makes public health work. The "public" part is the important part - you can't be a healthy individual in a sick society. So that means lock-downs but it also means health care for everyone, not just the rich few.
For much of the past three years, New Zealand's total excess deaths were negative. Fewer people died from all causes than expected, because lock-downs and social distancing protected us from influenza and other infectious diseases, as well as Covid.
Behaving as if we have a responsibility for each others' health results in better health overall.
posted by happyinmotion at 11:58 AM on November 6, 2023 [74 favorites]
But there was never any science behind lockdowns — not a single study had ever been undertaken to measure their efficacy in stopping a pandemic. When you got right down to it, lockdowns were little more than a giant experiment.
Stuff like this is so disingenuous. You can't RCCT things like this! There are also no studies that show the efficacy of parachutes in reducing mortality from jumping out of an airplane!
And look, it's not like The Government got things right all across the board. COVID response in the USA was an absolute mess - from politicians sidelining health experts to promote themselves instead, to those who chipped away at effective strategies just so they could point to their ineffectiveness - to stuff that was just poorly timed, thoughtlessly implemented, and terribly communicated.
But "my umbrella isn't open" isn't the same thing as "umbrellas don't work."
But what the actual fuck do the authors of this piece have between their ears?
posted by entropone at 12:07 PM on November 6, 2023 [50 favorites]
Stuff like this is so disingenuous. You can't RCCT things like this! There are also no studies that show the efficacy of parachutes in reducing mortality from jumping out of an airplane!
And look, it's not like The Government got things right all across the board. COVID response in the USA was an absolute mess - from politicians sidelining health experts to promote themselves instead, to those who chipped away at effective strategies just so they could point to their ineffectiveness - to stuff that was just poorly timed, thoughtlessly implemented, and terribly communicated.
But "my umbrella isn't open" isn't the same thing as "umbrellas don't work."
But what the actual fuck do the authors of this piece have between their ears?
posted by entropone at 12:07 PM on November 6, 2023 [50 favorites]
I'm not sure what the benefits in the US were, but in Canada it was typical to to receive $2,000 a month for up to 12 months as part of Canada's Unemployment Insurance and Emergency Response plans.
posted by Cpt. The Mango at 12:08 PM on November 6, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by Cpt. The Mango at 12:08 PM on November 6, 2023 [3 favorites]
I'm not sure what the benefits in the US were, but in Canada it was typical to to receive $2,000 a month for up to 12 months as part of Canada's Unemployment Insurance and Emergency Response plans.
$600 a week. Factoring in conversion, the U.S. benefit was almost twice as good.
posted by rhymedirective at 12:12 PM on November 6, 2023 [4 favorites]
$600 a week. Factoring in conversion, the U.S. benefit was almost twice as good.
posted by rhymedirective at 12:12 PM on November 6, 2023 [4 favorites]
It's interesting to look back at what worked and what didn't, but I agree that I don't really trust the authors here. Aside from the facts mentioned above, I don't know why they are quoting Emily Oster, who is not in any way a public health expert.
posted by chaiminda at 12:14 PM on November 6, 2023 [7 favorites]
posted by chaiminda at 12:14 PM on November 6, 2023 [7 favorites]
Aside from the facts mentioned above, I don't know why they are quoting Emily Oster, who is not in any way a public health expert.
Don't make me defend Emily Oster, but she's produced quite a bit of academic research on public health policy. FWIW I think she's a monstrous asshole who represents everything wrong with 3rd generation priviledged academics who never had to work a day in their life.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 12:17 PM on November 6, 2023 [4 favorites]
Don't make me defend Emily Oster, but she's produced quite a bit of academic research on public health policy. FWIW I think she's a monstrous asshole who represents everything wrong with 3rd generation priviledged academics who never had to work a day in their life.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 12:17 PM on November 6, 2023 [4 favorites]
$600 a week. Factoring in conversion, the U.S. benefit was almost twice as good.
hahaha that's if you could actually get it. most people I know spent the better part of an entire year trying to get the unemployment office and every other agency to actually send out payments. Constant republican gutting of every support system in governance meant that even if the funds were "available", actually engaging with the bureaucracy and getting something out of it was downright Sysyphian.
posted by FatherDagon at 12:24 PM on November 6, 2023 [27 favorites]
hahaha that's if you could actually get it. most people I know spent the better part of an entire year trying to get the unemployment office and every other agency to actually send out payments. Constant republican gutting of every support system in governance meant that even if the funds were "available", actually engaging with the bureaucracy and getting something out of it was downright Sysyphian.
posted by FatherDagon at 12:24 PM on November 6, 2023 [27 favorites]
Can any Canadian here attest to how easy/difficult it was to obtain the 2k there?
posted by Selena777 at 12:30 PM on November 6, 2023
posted by Selena777 at 12:30 PM on November 6, 2023
The big fail was Trump.
During a national emergency, I remember how that vainglorious asshole would go on television every night to talk about what a great job he was doing. It still boils my blood to remember how he'd just make shit up on the spot and give himself credit and no one in the fucking room would stand up to him, even when he was suggesting that people drink fucking bleach. The whole fucking country seemed to be falling apart. States were being told that they were "on their own" to get supplies which the federal government would then seize and redistribute according to Trump's political whim. Hundreds of thousands of people died because of pointlessly stupid decisions Trump made to satisfy his own ego and there's never been any investigation nor any assignment of blame.
posted by RonButNotStupid at 12:31 PM on November 6, 2023 [74 favorites]
During a national emergency, I remember how that vainglorious asshole would go on television every night to talk about what a great job he was doing. It still boils my blood to remember how he'd just make shit up on the spot and give himself credit and no one in the fucking room would stand up to him, even when he was suggesting that people drink fucking bleach. The whole fucking country seemed to be falling apart. States were being told that they were "on their own" to get supplies which the federal government would then seize and redistribute according to Trump's political whim. Hundreds of thousands of people died because of pointlessly stupid decisions Trump made to satisfy his own ego and there's never been any investigation nor any assignment of blame.
posted by RonButNotStupid at 12:31 PM on November 6, 2023 [74 favorites]
Ok, finished reading, and I found the article to be a pretty thorough refresher of various studies that have come out. The title of the article (and book) is unfortunately a bit click-baitey, and I'm also not quite sure why the focus is all on the ineffectiveness of lockdowns. To me, the key bit was mid-way through:
After The Big Fail went to press, The Lancet published a study comparing the COVID infection rate and death rate in the 50 states. It concluded that “SARS-CoV-2 infections and COVID-19 deaths disproportionately clustered in U.S. states with lower mean years of education, higher poverty rates, limited access to quality health care, and less interpersonal trust — the trust that people report having in one another.” These sociological factors appear to have made a bigger difference than lockdowns (which were “associated with a statistically significant and meaningfully large reduction in the cumulative infection rate, but not the cumulative death rate”). [Emphasis mine]
The authors then point out that Sweden, which never locked down in any capacity, had one of the lowest rates of excess deaths for 2020–2021, and then quickly transition to this claim: "It is not unreasonable to conclude from the available data that the lockdowns led to more overall deaths in the U.S. than a policy that resembled Sweden’s would have."
No doubt, deaths of despair and deaths caused from delays in other medical care (like cancer treatments) did result from lockdowns (I know of some people who fall into both categories), but I'm not clear how the authors conclude that these explain the entire difference between the US and Sweden, given the Lancet study that they cite makes pretty clear COVID deaths are linked to poverty/poor access to medical care. That, combined with lack of community trust, was the main driving force of death. So then why place all their attention on the failure of lockdowns to make much difference, and not more attention on the need for our society to be less shit towards poor people? And you know, get the ball rolling for Medicare for All.
posted by coffeecat at 12:31 PM on November 6, 2023 [21 favorites]
After The Big Fail went to press, The Lancet published a study comparing the COVID infection rate and death rate in the 50 states. It concluded that “SARS-CoV-2 infections and COVID-19 deaths disproportionately clustered in U.S. states with lower mean years of education, higher poverty rates, limited access to quality health care, and less interpersonal trust — the trust that people report having in one another.” These sociological factors appear to have made a bigger difference than lockdowns (which were “associated with a statistically significant and meaningfully large reduction in the cumulative infection rate, but not the cumulative death rate”). [Emphasis mine]
The authors then point out that Sweden, which never locked down in any capacity, had one of the lowest rates of excess deaths for 2020–2021, and then quickly transition to this claim: "It is not unreasonable to conclude from the available data that the lockdowns led to more overall deaths in the U.S. than a policy that resembled Sweden’s would have."
No doubt, deaths of despair and deaths caused from delays in other medical care (like cancer treatments) did result from lockdowns (I know of some people who fall into both categories), but I'm not clear how the authors conclude that these explain the entire difference between the US and Sweden, given the Lancet study that they cite makes pretty clear COVID deaths are linked to poverty/poor access to medical care. That, combined with lack of community trust, was the main driving force of death. So then why place all their attention on the failure of lockdowns to make much difference, and not more attention on the need for our society to be less shit towards poor people? And you know, get the ball rolling for Medicare for All.
posted by coffeecat at 12:31 PM on November 6, 2023 [21 favorites]
Canadian CERB benefits were also available to people who got furloughed, not just laid off or fired (like my partner); to certain categories of self-employed people, and a few other groups. It was super easy to get - I think my partner had to fill out a very short online form, in conjunction with some paperwork submitted by their employer - and covered a much wider number of people. You could even quit your job for COVID related reasons and still be eligible for CERB (though there was more paperwork in that case). And Canada also gave operating grants to businesses, arts grants to self-employed artists, and most provinces instituted rent controls to ensure that the benefits were sufficient.
posted by eviemath at 12:33 PM on November 6, 2023 [9 favorites]
posted by eviemath at 12:33 PM on November 6, 2023 [9 favorites]
RonButNotStupid has it. Yet again, we are ignoring the elephant in the room and normalizing TFG. It will be our downfall.
posted by Melismata at 12:34 PM on November 6, 2023 [13 favorites]
posted by Melismata at 12:34 PM on November 6, 2023 [13 favorites]
Overall, there was a coordinated collection of economic supports in Canada to encourage as many businesses as possible to stay closed or work from home (if feasible), including grant funding for wfh equipment costs.
posted by eviemath at 12:35 PM on November 6, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by eviemath at 12:35 PM on November 6, 2023 [3 favorites]
And there was federal-provincial coordination in Canada on economic supports as well as supplies for health care workers, testing, and vaccines (when they became available). Still is for vaccines. Maybe also for testing? (PCR tests are much more restricted now, but at-home rapid test kits are still freely available at public libraries in my province).
posted by eviemath at 12:37 PM on November 6, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by eviemath at 12:37 PM on November 6, 2023 [2 favorites]
" What else could the federal government have (legally) done? Pay people to quit their jobs?"
In New Zealand, we subsidised employers to the tune of 80% of wage cost to keep their staff on during lockdown (with equivalent payments for self-employed folks and contractors). There was little vetting on signup, validation happened later. All you had to do was supply financial statements for the previous financial period so there was some evidence you were a going concern.
This worked so well that the economy bounced back almost immediately, to the surprise of most commentators.
Admittedly a small unicameral govt with wide regulatory powers can move faster than the US govt. But.
posted by i_am_joe's_spleen at 12:37 PM on November 6, 2023 [12 favorites]
In New Zealand, we subsidised employers to the tune of 80% of wage cost to keep their staff on during lockdown (with equivalent payments for self-employed folks and contractors). There was little vetting on signup, validation happened later. All you had to do was supply financial statements for the previous financial period so there was some evidence you were a going concern.
This worked so well that the economy bounced back almost immediately, to the surprise of most commentators.
Admittedly a small unicameral govt with wide regulatory powers can move faster than the US govt. But.
posted by i_am_joe's_spleen at 12:37 PM on November 6, 2023 [12 favorites]
What else could the federal government have (legally) done? Pay people to quit their jobs?
Nah, they decided to put a trillion dollars of "loans" in the pockets of employers and then forgive the loans.
posted by tclark at 12:43 PM on November 6, 2023 [15 favorites]
Nah, they decided to put a trillion dollars of "loans" in the pockets of employers and then forgive the loans.
posted by tclark at 12:43 PM on November 6, 2023 [15 favorites]
Can any Canadian here attest to how easy/difficult it was to obtain the 2k there?
Super easy. I didn't have to jump through hoops to get it while I was in between jobs--I left the hospital I worked at about nine months into the lockdown because the stress was insane--and it supported me until I got another position at a family medicine clinic. Automatic deposit, able to pay my bills. No complaints.
Also, being a dual citizen, I received a COVID payment cheque from the US a few months later. Just the one, mind you.
posted by Kitteh at 12:47 PM on November 6, 2023 [9 favorites]
Super easy. I didn't have to jump through hoops to get it while I was in between jobs--I left the hospital I worked at about nine months into the lockdown because the stress was insane--and it supported me until I got another position at a family medicine clinic. Automatic deposit, able to pay my bills. No complaints.
Also, being a dual citizen, I received a COVID payment cheque from the US a few months later. Just the one, mind you.
posted by Kitteh at 12:47 PM on November 6, 2023 [9 favorites]
Can any Canadian here attest to how easy/difficult it was to obtain the 2k there?
I can speak to this and to the business supports that applied to my industry (martial arts at the time) on both sides of the border, because we were networking weekly with other martial arts studios in the US.
Personal benefits: CERB was the original Canadian aid plan. I laid off 40 people in March 2020 (we paid them for three weeks) and then myself. To get CERB I had to fill out an online form. The money was in my account in 3 days. There was fraud and the government has been criticized but honestly, that was the best use of tax dollars I have ever seen in my life short of health care itself.
Eventually this was rolled into EI. We went through various phases.
Some of the people who ended up having to pay some back included full time university students and part-time workers, because the government literally gave the same amount to everyone who applied - again maybe not the best practice for a non-emergency situation but for an emergency situation it was great. I didn't have to worry if my staff could eat.
Business benefits: Canadian businesses who were impacted and adhering to lockdowns -- for gyms this was extended beyond many other industries -- there was incentive to hire back staff and then the government subsidized, subsidized, free money 75% of employee wages on the first $58,700 per employee, up to a maximum of $847 per week. We rehired most people before CERB ended, because we could afford to. (We were teaching online classes and some people just...paid their memberships even though they weren't coming, as a way of supporting the lockdown.)
For us this meant that we could roll over the bumps of all the different health mandates - 10 people per class, more as long as they were 6 feet apart, lock down again, open up again - and still pay our staff even though our business revenues were at 30% of prior. It was frankly amazing.
We were inspected by public health 4 times. Passed every time.
We also had access to rent subsidies/loans, loans for things like installing better ventilation systems, and low-interest business loans, mostly through the feds but also through the province.
US martial arts academies had to apply for PPP loans. They were not easy to get but also - they were loans. Some of those places have gone out of business since, because of the debt load. They also were aware that they were carrying debt, and made decisions differently. I know, from talking to real business owners, that a lot of martial arts places put paper up over their windows and still held classes during lockdowns.
And as soon as lockdowns were lifted they encouraged students to come in, aiming for full classes. Look, the whole thing was devastating for everyone but the organization I worked in could afford to do things correctly partly because we were in good fiscal shape before (we weren't making big loan payments; our costs really were staffing costs) but also because the government paid us to do right.
posted by warriorqueen at 12:53 PM on November 6, 2023 [20 favorites]
I can speak to this and to the business supports that applied to my industry (martial arts at the time) on both sides of the border, because we were networking weekly with other martial arts studios in the US.
Personal benefits: CERB was the original Canadian aid plan. I laid off 40 people in March 2020 (we paid them for three weeks) and then myself. To get CERB I had to fill out an online form. The money was in my account in 3 days. There was fraud and the government has been criticized but honestly, that was the best use of tax dollars I have ever seen in my life short of health care itself.
Eventually this was rolled into EI. We went through various phases.
Some of the people who ended up having to pay some back included full time university students and part-time workers, because the government literally gave the same amount to everyone who applied - again maybe not the best practice for a non-emergency situation but for an emergency situation it was great. I didn't have to worry if my staff could eat.
Business benefits: Canadian businesses who were impacted and adhering to lockdowns -- for gyms this was extended beyond many other industries -- there was incentive to hire back staff and then the government subsidized, subsidized, free money 75% of employee wages on the first $58,700 per employee, up to a maximum of $847 per week. We rehired most people before CERB ended, because we could afford to. (We were teaching online classes and some people just...paid their memberships even though they weren't coming, as a way of supporting the lockdown.)
For us this meant that we could roll over the bumps of all the different health mandates - 10 people per class, more as long as they were 6 feet apart, lock down again, open up again - and still pay our staff even though our business revenues were at 30% of prior. It was frankly amazing.
We were inspected by public health 4 times. Passed every time.
We also had access to rent subsidies/loans, loans for things like installing better ventilation systems, and low-interest business loans, mostly through the feds but also through the province.
US martial arts academies had to apply for PPP loans. They were not easy to get but also - they were loans. Some of those places have gone out of business since, because of the debt load. They also were aware that they were carrying debt, and made decisions differently. I know, from talking to real business owners, that a lot of martial arts places put paper up over their windows and still held classes during lockdowns.
And as soon as lockdowns were lifted they encouraged students to come in, aiming for full classes. Look, the whole thing was devastating for everyone but the organization I worked in could afford to do things correctly partly because we were in good fiscal shape before (we weren't making big loan payments; our costs really were staffing costs) but also because the government paid us to do right.
posted by warriorqueen at 12:53 PM on November 6, 2023 [20 favorites]
Further to my earlier comment: there was some criticism (and I agreed with it) that the NZ govt SHOULD have paid workers directly, which would have given them more freedom and in some ways been easier (there is an existing mechanism for delivering social welfare benefits and tax credits). But the govt did not want to offend the business lobby and it did mean that businesses could immediately resume operations when conditions improved. There was also heavy criticism of marginal businesses who took the subsidy then went into liquidation straight after, or businesses that took the subsidy but didn't really suffer during lockdown and effectively got a hefty chunk of wage bill that they didn't need. But on balance, it was a good thing.
posted by i_am_joe's_spleen at 1:04 PM on November 6, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by i_am_joe's_spleen at 1:04 PM on November 6, 2023 [1 favorite]
To elaborate a bit more, the big fail was Trump twice over:
First, we did the mature thing and tried to put a public health emergency over politics. Trump may have been an insane madman, but there was still a deadly pandemic going on and lots of well meaning people made the rather faustian decision to humor Trump so that they could be in a position to manage the pandemic and steer him away from his more destructive tendencies. However, Trump still controlled the narrative and he quickly politicized the pandemic anyway.
Second, we did the mature thing and moved on when Trump left office. There was still a pandemic on, vaccines needed to be distributed, and there was a ton of damage that needed to be repaired from what happened on Trump's watch. Trump had already politicized the pandemic enough, and putting the country back together took precedence. But this again left Trump free to continue politicizing the pandemic.
posted by RonButNotStupid at 1:08 PM on November 6, 2023 [12 favorites]
First, we did the mature thing and tried to put a public health emergency over politics. Trump may have been an insane madman, but there was still a deadly pandemic going on and lots of well meaning people made the rather faustian decision to humor Trump so that they could be in a position to manage the pandemic and steer him away from his more destructive tendencies. However, Trump still controlled the narrative and he quickly politicized the pandemic anyway.
Second, we did the mature thing and moved on when Trump left office. There was still a pandemic on, vaccines needed to be distributed, and there was a ton of damage that needed to be repaired from what happened on Trump's watch. Trump had already politicized the pandemic enough, and putting the country back together took precedence. But this again left Trump free to continue politicizing the pandemic.
posted by RonButNotStupid at 1:08 PM on November 6, 2023 [12 favorites]
Anecdata but I had no problems at all getting the $600 per week from the U.S. and I was "merely" furloughed.
posted by cooker girl at 1:12 PM on November 6, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by cooker girl at 1:12 PM on November 6, 2023 [2 favorites]
This seems like a good place to put this:
https://www.normalcyfugitive.com/p/the-pandemic-isnt-over
Also, today is the last day to get your comments in for the HIPAC public review period:
See here for a starting point: https://twitter.com/LazarusLong13/status/1720378260578812323
The committee is 100% staffed by hospital industry insiders, and is attempting to *lower* protections against airborne pathogens.
posted by cfraenkel at 1:13 PM on November 6, 2023 [9 favorites]
https://www.normalcyfugitive.com/p/the-pandemic-isnt-over
Also, today is the last day to get your comments in for the HIPAC public review period:
See here for a starting point: https://twitter.com/LazarusLong13/status/1720378260578812323
The committee is 100% staffed by hospital industry insiders, and is attempting to *lower* protections against airborne pathogens.
posted by cfraenkel at 1:13 PM on November 6, 2023 [9 favorites]
About the Paycheck Protection Program for businesses, ProPublica tallied 11.5 million loans approved, $790 billion in funding approved, with $757 billion of that forgiven (includes any accrued interest). Funding broken out by state at the link.
posted by Iris Gambol at 1:14 PM on November 6, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by Iris Gambol at 1:14 PM on November 6, 2023 [4 favorites]
In New Zealand, we subsidised employers to the tune of 80% of wage cost to keep their staff on during lockdown (with equivalent payments for self-employed folks and contractors).
I mean, we basically did this in the U.S. as well.
The U.S. was on average, in financial and philosophical terms, about as generous as any other Western democracy (which in and of itself it pretty surprising.) What is always lacking in the U.S. is implementation obfuscated by 17 different layers of local, state, and federal bureaucracy, none of which function well due to 40 years of neoliberal hollowing-out of the administrative state.
posted by rhymedirective at 1:15 PM on November 6, 2023 [7 favorites]
I mean, we basically did this in the U.S. as well.
The U.S. was on average, in financial and philosophical terms, about as generous as any other Western democracy (which in and of itself it pretty surprising.) What is always lacking in the U.S. is implementation obfuscated by 17 different layers of local, state, and federal bureaucracy, none of which function well due to 40 years of neoliberal hollowing-out of the administrative state.
posted by rhymedirective at 1:15 PM on November 6, 2023 [7 favorites]
Anyone who is writing "but Sweden..." in 2023 is quite obviously pushing an agenda (because why aren't they writing about countries that actually did well like NZ and Australia). I don't see why we should give such people the time of day.
posted by ssg at 1:15 PM on November 6, 2023 [19 favorites]
posted by ssg at 1:15 PM on November 6, 2023 [19 favorites]
In New Zealand
My recollection is that New Zealand had a different trajectory than elsewhere, likely due to island quarantines being extremely effective. Which is wonderful, but also highlights the difficulty (and the potential!) from collecting lessons from the event -- impact is different in different countries, different economies, different cultures, different population densities.
posted by pwnguin at 1:15 PM on November 6, 2023 [6 favorites]
My recollection is that New Zealand had a different trajectory than elsewhere, likely due to island quarantines being extremely effective. Which is wonderful, but also highlights the difficulty (and the potential!) from collecting lessons from the event -- impact is different in different countries, different economies, different cultures, different population densities.
posted by pwnguin at 1:15 PM on November 6, 2023 [6 favorites]
The FPP article feels like a very sweaty defense of the US because the US doesn't like to be criticized.
posted by Kitteh at 1:17 PM on November 6, 2023 [8 favorites]
posted by Kitteh at 1:17 PM on November 6, 2023 [8 favorites]
It's good the PPP loans were forgiven, but I saw in real time the impact of those being loans and not subsidies on people's decisions during the pandemic. And I saw businesses close because they were using the PPP loans to service debt. Maybe they were just unlucky, I don't know. But I would guess it was that the loan didn't get them back to profitable.
As soon as one state stayed open, 75% of the discussions that had been "how do I deal with complying and losing the business I worked my whole life for, and maybe my house" turned to "how do I maliciously comply?" (Mask Free Mondays - you put closed sign on your door and all the students come in and grapple.)
posted by warriorqueen at 1:17 PM on November 6, 2023 [3 favorites]
As soon as one state stayed open, 75% of the discussions that had been "how do I deal with complying and losing the business I worked my whole life for, and maybe my house" turned to "how do I maliciously comply?" (Mask Free Mondays - you put closed sign on your door and all the students come in and grapple.)
posted by warriorqueen at 1:17 PM on November 6, 2023 [3 favorites]
The author's then point out that Sweden, which never locked down in any capacity, had one of the lowest rates of excess deaths for 2020–2021, and then quickly transition to this claim: "It is not unreasonable to conclude from the available data that the lockdowns led to more overall deaths in the U.S. than a policy that resembled Sweden’s would have."
Except this is simply not true. At all. Lots of countries just in Europe had lower mortality rates than Sweden, a country that should have done better, given that it has good universal healthcare and low population density.
Also, I don't think it is meaningful to compare the US and Sweden when it comes to public health outcomes, the way it is suggested here. Even though Sweden didn't lock down, it still had unlimited paid sick leaves for anyone who had the virus. No-one goes to work in a meat-packing plant with a fever in Sweden, let alone with a deadly virus. Also, the basic health of the Swedish population is fairly good. There is less obesity, and hence less obesity-related illness, like diabetes. And there are far less issues with prescription drugs.
Or what ssg said.
posted by mumimor at 1:20 PM on November 6, 2023 [26 favorites]
Except this is simply not true. At all. Lots of countries just in Europe had lower mortality rates than Sweden, a country that should have done better, given that it has good universal healthcare and low population density.
Also, I don't think it is meaningful to compare the US and Sweden when it comes to public health outcomes, the way it is suggested here. Even though Sweden didn't lock down, it still had unlimited paid sick leaves for anyone who had the virus. No-one goes to work in a meat-packing plant with a fever in Sweden, let alone with a deadly virus. Also, the basic health of the Swedish population is fairly good. There is less obesity, and hence less obesity-related illness, like diabetes. And there are far less issues with prescription drugs.
Or what ssg said.
posted by mumimor at 1:20 PM on November 6, 2023 [26 favorites]
Some PPP loans were frauds, though? The head of a multimillion-dollar COVID-19 relief fraud ring and six of his co-conspirators were sentenced for fraudulently obtaining more than $20 million in forgivable Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loans that the Small Business Administration (SBA) guaranteed under the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act. (DOJ, Oct. 3, 2023) ProPublica coverage of PPP frauds includes
- Different Names, Same Address: How Big Businesses Got Government Loans Meant for Small Businesses (July 14, 2020) ProPublica found at least 15 large companies that received over half a billion dollars in PPP loans using the same technique: Getting multiple loans sent to smaller entities they own.
- The Small Biz Double-Dip: Temp Companies Got Cheap Government Money, Got Paid by Clients for the Same Workers (July 27, 2020)
- Hundreds of PPP Loans Went to Fake Farms in Absurd Places (May 18, 2021)
- Fintechs Made “Massive Profits” on PPP Loans and Sometimes Engaged in Fraud, House Committee Report Finds (Dec. 1, 2022)
posted by Iris Gambol at 1:26 PM on November 6, 2023 [10 favorites]
- Different Names, Same Address: How Big Businesses Got Government Loans Meant for Small Businesses (July 14, 2020) ProPublica found at least 15 large companies that received over half a billion dollars in PPP loans using the same technique: Getting multiple loans sent to smaller entities they own.
- The Small Biz Double-Dip: Temp Companies Got Cheap Government Money, Got Paid by Clients for the Same Workers (July 27, 2020)
- Hundreds of PPP Loans Went to Fake Farms in Absurd Places (May 18, 2021)
- Fintechs Made “Massive Profits” on PPP Loans and Sometimes Engaged in Fraud, House Committee Report Finds (Dec. 1, 2022)
posted by Iris Gambol at 1:26 PM on November 6, 2023 [10 favorites]
Also, I don't think it is meaningful to compare the US and Sweden when it comes to public health outcomes, the way it is suggested here. Even though Sweden didn't lock down, it still had unlimited paid sick leaves for anyone who had the virus.
It's a whole different ball game when the countries in question have universal healthcare. Maybe that's why so many countries with it in place fared better, for the most part. Until Americans get universal healthcare (haha), I suspect any future pandemic outbreaks will always be terrible.
posted by Kitteh at 1:27 PM on November 6, 2023 [8 favorites]
It's a whole different ball game when the countries in question have universal healthcare. Maybe that's why so many countries with it in place fared better, for the most part. Until Americans get universal healthcare (haha), I suspect any future pandemic outbreaks will always be terrible.
posted by Kitteh at 1:27 PM on November 6, 2023 [8 favorites]
vainglorious This is my new favorite word.
posted by Nanukthedog at 1:30 PM on November 6, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by Nanukthedog at 1:30 PM on November 6, 2023 [1 favorite]
"Confined"???
I lived through and worked against the pandemic in one of the earliest, hardest-hit cities in the world, and this article makes me question my own experience - relying on hyperbole instead of documentation.
Yeah, this is pretty weird and not really what happened in, frankly, most of the world.
Even in my province here in Canada, we had mandatory work from home orders (if the job could be done from home, your employer was required to allow it), but people could still leave their homes. People could still go shopping. People could still socialize. Even during the earliest stages with some of the strictest public health restrictions, no one was ever literally confined to their home unless they actually had COVID and were required to isolate (which, frankly, was probably not enforced super-well and relied mostly on the honour system though, pre-vaccine, most people would probably be too sick to want to leave the house if they were infected).
The US, generally speaking, had fewer restrictions than most of Canada so to claim people were confined to their homes for a year or more isn't just hyperbole, it's false (in most cases; certainly some people weren't able to leave their homes due to things like disability or other factors, but that's not really what the article is referring to).
posted by asnider at 1:36 PM on November 6, 2023 [12 favorites]
I lived through and worked against the pandemic in one of the earliest, hardest-hit cities in the world, and this article makes me question my own experience - relying on hyperbole instead of documentation.
Yeah, this is pretty weird and not really what happened in, frankly, most of the world.
Even in my province here in Canada, we had mandatory work from home orders (if the job could be done from home, your employer was required to allow it), but people could still leave their homes. People could still go shopping. People could still socialize. Even during the earliest stages with some of the strictest public health restrictions, no one was ever literally confined to their home unless they actually had COVID and were required to isolate (which, frankly, was probably not enforced super-well and relied mostly on the honour system though, pre-vaccine, most people would probably be too sick to want to leave the house if they were infected).
The US, generally speaking, had fewer restrictions than most of Canada so to claim people were confined to their homes for a year or more isn't just hyperbole, it's false (in most cases; certainly some people weren't able to leave their homes due to things like disability or other factors, but that's not really what the article is referring to).
posted by asnider at 1:36 PM on November 6, 2023 [12 favorites]
At this point America has pretty much lost the capacity and political will to deal with any pandemic crisis that doesn't immediately stack so many body bags up behind the hospital morgue that they can't find enough people to deliver freezer trucks. As it is, backsliding in things like DTP vaccinations for children worldwide will eventually result in more epidemics of those diseases if the course isn't reversed.
posted by BrotherCaine at 1:36 PM on November 6, 2023 [10 favorites]
posted by BrotherCaine at 1:36 PM on November 6, 2023 [10 favorites]
mumimor, the study you link to supports what the article says - Sweden has one of the lowest excess mortality rates - in fact, it's only beat by Norway. And even in terms of COVID mortality, it's still among the lowest (the light blue color on that map).
But I agree (as I think I made clear in the next paragraph in my post that you partially quoted from) that the key takeaway shouldn't just be about the efficacy lockdowns, but health infrastructure. The fact that Sweden was able to do so well despite not locking down suggests the power/importance of investing not only in health care/public health, but also in worker's rights (sick days), access to affordable produce, etc. Sweden should be a model not because they didn't lockdown, but because of the reasons that made that decision feasible.
posted by coffeecat at 1:53 PM on November 6, 2023 [3 favorites]
But I agree (as I think I made clear in the next paragraph in my post that you partially quoted from) that the key takeaway shouldn't just be about the efficacy lockdowns, but health infrastructure. The fact that Sweden was able to do so well despite not locking down suggests the power/importance of investing not only in health care/public health, but also in worker's rights (sick days), access to affordable produce, etc. Sweden should be a model not because they didn't lockdown, but because of the reasons that made that decision feasible.
posted by coffeecat at 1:53 PM on November 6, 2023 [3 favorites]
"My recollection is that New Zealand had a different trajectory than elsewhere, likely due to island quarantines being extremely effective. "
An easy-to-close border is definitely one part, but the original point was about how to support workers in a lockdown.
On that point, it is a momentous decision to close your borders when tourism accounts for about 6% of GDP and something over 20% of your original population is overseas but likes to come home regularly. That has huge economic effects of its own (this may have played into the decision to do something as drastic as the wage subsidy too).
But yeah NZ actually still has lower than expected death rates (ie below pre-COVID norms) over the last three years, likely because not only did we manage to keep COVID out until almost all the adult population was vaccinated, but we also had two winters without new strains of seasonal flu, RSV and other respiratory killers coming in from offshore.
posted by i_am_joe's_spleen at 2:04 PM on November 6, 2023 [8 favorites]
An easy-to-close border is definitely one part, but the original point was about how to support workers in a lockdown.
On that point, it is a momentous decision to close your borders when tourism accounts for about 6% of GDP and something over 20% of your original population is overseas but likes to come home regularly. That has huge economic effects of its own (this may have played into the decision to do something as drastic as the wage subsidy too).
But yeah NZ actually still has lower than expected death rates (ie below pre-COVID norms) over the last three years, likely because not only did we manage to keep COVID out until almost all the adult population was vaccinated, but we also had two winters without new strains of seasonal flu, RSV and other respiratory killers coming in from offshore.
posted by i_am_joe's_spleen at 2:04 PM on November 6, 2023 [8 favorites]
Super easy. I didn't have to jump through hoops to get it while I was in between jobs--I left the hospital I worked at about nine months into the lockdown because the stress was insane--and it supported me until I got another position at a family medicine clinic. Automatic deposit, able to pay my bills. No complaints.
As an American, this honestly makes me want to weep....what the fuck is wrong with this godforsaken country?
posted by tristeza at 2:15 PM on November 6, 2023 [13 favorites]
As an American, this honestly makes me want to weep....what the fuck is wrong with this godforsaken country?
posted by tristeza at 2:15 PM on November 6, 2023 [13 favorites]
Having read the article, my take is that they exagerate the case against lockdowns (including the kind of hyperbolic text quoted above about people being locked in their houses for a year), but that they are basically correct about the immense social cost imposed by closing schools and leaving them closed. (Versus, say, prioritizing safer ways to reopen them, or versus what happened which was prioritizing opening bars back up.) They are conflating a lot in their criticism of lockdowns, which I think weakens their actual argument.
posted by Dip Flash at 2:39 PM on November 6, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by Dip Flash at 2:39 PM on November 6, 2023 [2 favorites]
Look, everyone got emotionally fucked up from being locked in for a year, myself included. But we should have just kept everything going just like normal, with no masks (noting that so many people refused to wear them) and just everyone getting covid constantly?!?! That's BETTER? Nobody liked lockdowns, but what the fuck else did they have to try? How well would the world have gone on "like usual" when everyone at work, everyone at school, everyone at concerts, etc. had it at once? FFS.
Also, not that I know a lot about Sweden, but the place is small and probably not as socially fractured as here, and islands had advantages other places did not.
posted by jenfullmoon at 2:45 PM on November 6, 2023 [2 favorites]
Also, not that I know a lot about Sweden, but the place is small and probably not as socially fractured as here, and islands had advantages other places did not.
posted by jenfullmoon at 2:45 PM on November 6, 2023 [2 favorites]
I also knew a bunch of people who couldn't get unemployment benefits because they were gig workers. I read somewhere that they changed that (maybe in 2021?), but my particular friends just kept working because they couldn't afford not to, and there were never really any meaningful lockdowns in Tennessee.
posted by joannemerriam at 2:45 PM on November 6, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by joannemerriam at 2:45 PM on November 6, 2023 [2 favorites]
mumimor, the study you link to supports what the article says - Sweden has one of the lowest excess mortality rates - in fact, it's only beat by Norway. And even in terms of COVID mortality, it's still among the lowest (the light blue color on that map).
No it doesn't. According to the statistics in that study Sweden is beat, in Europe, by Norway, Iceland, Ireland, Turkey, The Netherlands, Denmark, Switzerland, Finland, Albania and Estonia. There are other succesfull countries in other continents, but I didn't bother to sort out the numbers, since this is damning enough. Specially because Sweden is scarcely populated and very rich. Also, unlike other European countries, Sweden doesn't have a large number of undocumented immigrants, that are outside the healthcare system. Many of those European countries that were hit hard by the pandemic have hundreds of thousands of undocumented residents, including refugees in makeshift camps.
On top of that, Sweden was basically isolated during the pandemic. All the neighboring countries were in lockdown, and again, Sweden is a big country with a small population, and though most of the population lives in cities, those cities are far away from most European population centers. And, in those cities, people live in orderly homes with proper sanitation and enough space. Theoretically, you can cross the borders to Norway and Finland unnoticed, but you'll find yourself in the middle of a wilderness on both sides.
Compare with The Netherlands, which is very densely populated, has more complicated social issues and borders that can't be closed entirely, and still did better. The people who point to Sweden as a succes story almost always have a (barely) hidden agenda.
posted by mumimor at 2:48 PM on November 6, 2023 [15 favorites]
No it doesn't. According to the statistics in that study Sweden is beat, in Europe, by Norway, Iceland, Ireland, Turkey, The Netherlands, Denmark, Switzerland, Finland, Albania and Estonia. There are other succesfull countries in other continents, but I didn't bother to sort out the numbers, since this is damning enough. Specially because Sweden is scarcely populated and very rich. Also, unlike other European countries, Sweden doesn't have a large number of undocumented immigrants, that are outside the healthcare system. Many of those European countries that were hit hard by the pandemic have hundreds of thousands of undocumented residents, including refugees in makeshift camps.
On top of that, Sweden was basically isolated during the pandemic. All the neighboring countries were in lockdown, and again, Sweden is a big country with a small population, and though most of the population lives in cities, those cities are far away from most European population centers. And, in those cities, people live in orderly homes with proper sanitation and enough space. Theoretically, you can cross the borders to Norway and Finland unnoticed, but you'll find yourself in the middle of a wilderness on both sides.
Compare with The Netherlands, which is very densely populated, has more complicated social issues and borders that can't be closed entirely, and still did better. The people who point to Sweden as a succes story almost always have a (barely) hidden agenda.
posted by mumimor at 2:48 PM on November 6, 2023 [15 favorites]
People could still socialize.
In California in San Mateo County I could not during certain phases of the lockdown. I live alone. I wasn't even allowed to go hiking with other households. I wasn't allowed to travel more than five miles from my house. I can't remember the exact timeline but I recall the first time I saw human friends face to face again was an outdoor gathering during really bad wildfire smoke, so July or August?
I know a lot of people cheated or stretched the definition of "essential" but there were certainly bans on socializing.
posted by mark k at 2:55 PM on November 6, 2023 [7 favorites]
In California in San Mateo County I could not during certain phases of the lockdown. I live alone. I wasn't even allowed to go hiking with other households. I wasn't allowed to travel more than five miles from my house. I can't remember the exact timeline but I recall the first time I saw human friends face to face again was an outdoor gathering during really bad wildfire smoke, so July or August?
I know a lot of people cheated or stretched the definition of "essential" but there were certainly bans on socializing.
posted by mark k at 2:55 PM on November 6, 2023 [7 favorites]
I think it is important to properly situate this article & book in the context of an enormous anti-social PR campaign spearheaded by McKinsey and other consultancies working on behalf of business interests who simply do not care if people die. Don't kid yourself that this campaign has stopped with the lack of concern about our current pandemic either. The PR firms are currently laying the groundwork for preventing any future public health measures that may constrain the extractive profits of their clients.
This pandemic was a struggle against both a virus and absolutely wild Boss/Owner propaganda and public health didn't win either struggle. That's why covid is still infecting us now in unknown numbers and killing unknown numbers (we stopped counting as if Trump was still president) and why your workplace doesn't have any air filtering requirements. The virus won and the bosses and owners won.
How many 'experiments' have a mega billion dollar media, lobbying and consulting apparatus actively working to pollute any conclusion? "Lockdown fatigue" was a dominant media message before America even imposed any restrictions!
I think it is pretty interesting that this overview seems have a blindspot about what I think was probably the single greatest factor in determining America's public and political response to the pressures of the pandemic.
posted by srboisvert at 2:58 PM on November 6, 2023 [29 favorites]
This pandemic was a struggle against both a virus and absolutely wild Boss/Owner propaganda and public health didn't win either struggle. That's why covid is still infecting us now in unknown numbers and killing unknown numbers (we stopped counting as if Trump was still president) and why your workplace doesn't have any air filtering requirements. The virus won and the bosses and owners won.
How many 'experiments' have a mega billion dollar media, lobbying and consulting apparatus actively working to pollute any conclusion? "Lockdown fatigue" was a dominant media message before America even imposed any restrictions!
I think it is pretty interesting that this overview seems have a blindspot about what I think was probably the single greatest factor in determining America's public and political response to the pressures of the pandemic.
posted by srboisvert at 2:58 PM on November 6, 2023 [29 favorites]
It is so easy to forget that, at the beginning of the pandemic, nobody had a clue what was going on and all of the institutional knowledge re: how to contain a global pandemic had turned to dust. Everything was improvisation. And information was so unreliable! I remember when the vaccines first rolled out and then there was that breakthrough cluster in Provincetown, and people got all hot under the collar when the concept of "breakthrough infections" was mentioned because that couldn't happen, the vaccines were 99% effective etc etc. And then, a year later, the line was "of course there are breakthrough infections, nobody ever said that vaccines would stop you from getting COVID." Which, of course, was exactly what was touted when the vaccines first came out.
So a big, honking whatever emoji to people who want to armchair quarterback the past.
posted by grumpybear69 at 3:02 PM on November 6, 2023 [6 favorites]
So a big, honking whatever emoji to people who want to armchair quarterback the past.
posted by grumpybear69 at 3:02 PM on November 6, 2023 [6 favorites]
The virus won
Are people here operating under some kind of assumption that we could eradicate a zoonotic virus? If not, what does the virus losing look like?
posted by pwnguin at 3:08 PM on November 6, 2023 [4 favorites]
Are people here operating under some kind of assumption that we could eradicate a zoonotic virus? If not, what does the virus losing look like?
posted by pwnguin at 3:08 PM on November 6, 2023 [4 favorites]
mumimor, not trying to get into a back and forth here, but I think you're confusing COVID deaths with excess deaths. The part of the article I quoted (and then which you quoted), is talking about *excess deaths* - that's the bar chart at the very bottom of the link you provided. Sweden is # there. And yes, in terms of COVID deaths, Sweden is beat by the countries you list, but it's still among the lowest death rates (light blue) - it is much closer to most of the countries that "beat" it than the numerous countries that did worse than it.
Sweden is certainly not the only success story - but it is one of them. Again, it seems worth exploring whether the common denominator of success was less the degree to which the country/(or state/province) shut down, and more the sociological factors listed in that Lancet study.
posted by coffeecat at 3:27 PM on November 6, 2023 [1 favorite]
Sweden is certainly not the only success story - but it is one of them. Again, it seems worth exploring whether the common denominator of success was less the degree to which the country/(or state/province) shut down, and more the sociological factors listed in that Lancet study.
posted by coffeecat at 3:27 PM on November 6, 2023 [1 favorite]
Two business reporters write a book about public-health policy in an unprecedented global emergency, leaning heavily on ad-hoc analyses from economists with no expertise in health systems, and positioning their conclusions as “a key lesson” for humanity. What could go wrong?
posted by rrrrrrrrrt at 3:29 PM on November 6, 2023 [15 favorites]
posted by rrrrrrrrrt at 3:29 PM on November 6, 2023 [15 favorites]
Are people here operating under some kind of assumption that we could eradicate a zoonotic virus? If not, what does the virus losing look like?
No. But the virus losing/us winning would look like containing an outbreak to not be, or no longer be, pandemic; and preventing it from going endemic worldwide. You know, like we’ve done with SARS, MERS, and quite a few other zoonotic viruses, that are not ongoing pandemics nor globally endemic.
posted by eviemath at 3:39 PM on November 6, 2023 [5 favorites]
No. But the virus losing/us winning would look like containing an outbreak to not be, or no longer be, pandemic; and preventing it from going endemic worldwide. You know, like we’ve done with SARS, MERS, and quite a few other zoonotic viruses, that are not ongoing pandemics nor globally endemic.
posted by eviemath at 3:39 PM on November 6, 2023 [5 favorites]
Are people here operating under some kind of assumption that we could eradicate a zoonotic virus? If not, what does the virus losing look like?
SARS-Cov1.
posted by srboisvert at 3:51 PM on November 6, 2023 [9 favorites]
SARS-Cov1.
posted by srboisvert at 3:51 PM on November 6, 2023 [9 favorites]
No. But the virus losing/us winning would look like containing an outbreak to not be, or no longer be, pandemic; and preventing it from going endemic worldwide. You know, like we’ve done with SARS, MERS, and quite a few other zoonotic viruses, that are not ongoing pandemics nor globally endemic.
The difference between MERS and Covid-19 was about the virus, not the human response. We had a much stronger response with Covid-19, bungled as it was, and it still escaped.
I certainly expected us to get Covid down to MERS levels when the pandemic started, but it's one of many things I was wrong about.
posted by mark k at 3:56 PM on November 6, 2023
The difference between MERS and Covid-19 was about the virus, not the human response. We had a much stronger response with Covid-19, bungled as it was, and it still escaped.
I certainly expected us to get Covid down to MERS levels when the pandemic started, but it's one of many things I was wrong about.
posted by mark k at 3:56 PM on November 6, 2023
Something worth thinking about is that lockdowns were shortest and most effective where they were most stringent. Eg NZ ranked very high on the stringency index and we were out from the most severe lockdown in a matter of weeks. Other places that half-arsed it had restrictions for months because they didn't reduce transmission as fast/well. There is a tradeoff. In a society that can't accept usefully harsh temporary restrictions on freedom of movement/association, it may be better not to bother (but then you should be trying really hard at other measures, like masks).
posted by i_am_joe's_spleen at 4:02 PM on November 6, 2023 [8 favorites]
posted by i_am_joe's_spleen at 4:02 PM on November 6, 2023 [8 favorites]
mumimor, not trying to get into a back and forth here, but I think you're confusing COVID deaths with excess deaths.
I'll admit to being a bit lazy about this, because I could see while it was going on that countries had very different standards on reporting to the various international organisations. For instance, Denmark ended up having no excess deaths, contrariwise far more old people lived through the winters than usual (and the healthcare system has learnt from that). You can't see that in the graphs I linked to. And to be honest, I find it difficult to believe that Turkey, neighbor to Greece and with a constant influx of refugees from Syria was doing as well as they reported. Though they do have a young population, which speaks in favor of their numbers. If you really want to delve into this, I think the Johns Hopkins numbers are the most accurate, but they are not as easy to sort. I have no intention of going back into that helscape unless I get paid for it.
It still remains a fact that Sweden was by no means a success story. It did better than the UK or the US, yes, but you shouldn't measure Sweden against the UK or the US, because the pre-conditions, that I outlined above, were completely different. Sweden should be like Norway or Finland, its neighbors, and it wasn't even close.
posted by mumimor at 4:15 PM on November 6, 2023 [3 favorites]
I'll admit to being a bit lazy about this, because I could see while it was going on that countries had very different standards on reporting to the various international organisations. For instance, Denmark ended up having no excess deaths, contrariwise far more old people lived through the winters than usual (and the healthcare system has learnt from that). You can't see that in the graphs I linked to. And to be honest, I find it difficult to believe that Turkey, neighbor to Greece and with a constant influx of refugees from Syria was doing as well as they reported. Though they do have a young population, which speaks in favor of their numbers. If you really want to delve into this, I think the Johns Hopkins numbers are the most accurate, but they are not as easy to sort. I have no intention of going back into that helscape unless I get paid for it.
It still remains a fact that Sweden was by no means a success story. It did better than the UK or the US, yes, but you shouldn't measure Sweden against the UK or the US, because the pre-conditions, that I outlined above, were completely different. Sweden should be like Norway or Finland, its neighbors, and it wasn't even close.
posted by mumimor at 4:15 PM on November 6, 2023 [3 favorites]
The USA is no longer able to use the phrase 'avoid it like the plague ' because far, far too many people vehemently protested the basic human decency of wearing masks. And like so many decisions based on hate, were proud of themselves
posted by Jacen at 4:49 PM on November 6, 2023 [9 favorites]
posted by Jacen at 4:49 PM on November 6, 2023 [9 favorites]
Gratuitous anti-China claptrap.
posted by abucci at 4:52 PM on November 6, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by abucci at 4:52 PM on November 6, 2023 [1 favorite]
Also also, 600 a week was slightly more than I was making as a Frontline worker, not thinking about taxes and gas and definitely not factoring in the stress when the expected work jumped 20-50%. And for a UBI data point, 300$ 15 k, is enough for me, frugal and childfree, to live on completely comfortably
posted by Jacen at 5:00 PM on November 6, 2023
posted by Jacen at 5:00 PM on November 6, 2023
So if you want a response which does not rely on lockdowns - you can look to Taiwan.
BUT Taiwan was completely prepared for ANY pandemic - PPE equipment stored in every school, ten masks delivered for every member in the household in the first week, a GOVERNMENT MANUAL for how to deal with a pandemic from which the President and Vice-President quoted instructions.
Yes it helps to be an island. It doesn't help that you are next to the source of the infection with major two-way traffic between those two destinations.
Don't see any mention of the years that Taiwan took to get to that state of preparedness and the ongoing cost of making sure that the measures were all fully operational.
posted by Barbara Spitzer at 5:08 PM on November 6, 2023 [17 favorites]
BUT Taiwan was completely prepared for ANY pandemic - PPE equipment stored in every school, ten masks delivered for every member in the household in the first week, a GOVERNMENT MANUAL for how to deal with a pandemic from which the President and Vice-President quoted instructions.
Yes it helps to be an island. It doesn't help that you are next to the source of the infection with major two-way traffic between those two destinations.
Don't see any mention of the years that Taiwan took to get to that state of preparedness and the ongoing cost of making sure that the measures were all fully operational.
posted by Barbara Spitzer at 5:08 PM on November 6, 2023 [17 favorites]
If I’m around when the next pandemic hits, my hope is that I have enough resources available to just drop the hell out of the workforce. I’ve seen enough to know that if we get another virus with say, a 5% mortality rate, the powers that be are just gonna insist everyone carry on business as normal, forget the cost to society.
posted by azpenguin at 5:36 PM on November 6, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by azpenguin at 5:36 PM on November 6, 2023 [4 favorites]
The most messed up thing about the US response is that the US wrote the book on pandemic response. Trained the world on pandemic response. And then just… didn’t do it.
There’s a US-media interview somewhere with a Taiwanese official who says something to the effect of, “we were all trained in the CDC manual and followed it to the letter, which included making our own localized response manual.” It was perfect public official shade. I wish I could find it right now.
posted by Headfullofair at 5:39 PM on November 6, 2023 [26 favorites]
There’s a US-media interview somewhere with a Taiwanese official who says something to the effect of, “we were all trained in the CDC manual and followed it to the letter, which included making our own localized response manual.” It was perfect public official shade. I wish I could find it right now.
posted by Headfullofair at 5:39 PM on November 6, 2023 [26 favorites]
I saw businesses close because they were using the PPP loans to service debt. Maybe they were just unlucky, I don't know.
Worth noting that servicing debt was absolutely not the intended use of the PPP loans - it's right in the name, PPP stands for Paycheck Protection Program and small businesses could get the loans forgiven if they used most of it to pay employees, and even if they didn't get forgiveness the interest rate is 1%. Businesses that needed the PPP loans to service debt were probably already in trouble.
I also knew a bunch of people who couldn't get unemployment benefits because they were gig workers. I read somewhere that they changed that (maybe in 2021?)
The CARES Act of March 2020 had a section called "Pandemic Unemployment Assistance" that expanded unemployment benefits to gig workers and other people who would not otherwise have been eligible. Of course, thanks to decades of the intentional hollowing-out of the administrative state (as rhymedirective points out), actually getting those benefits was often somewhere from difficult to impossible.
posted by soundguy99 at 5:51 PM on November 6, 2023 [6 favorites]
Worth noting that servicing debt was absolutely not the intended use of the PPP loans - it's right in the name, PPP stands for Paycheck Protection Program and small businesses could get the loans forgiven if they used most of it to pay employees, and even if they didn't get forgiveness the interest rate is 1%. Businesses that needed the PPP loans to service debt were probably already in trouble.
I also knew a bunch of people who couldn't get unemployment benefits because they were gig workers. I read somewhere that they changed that (maybe in 2021?)
The CARES Act of March 2020 had a section called "Pandemic Unemployment Assistance" that expanded unemployment benefits to gig workers and other people who would not otherwise have been eligible. Of course, thanks to decades of the intentional hollowing-out of the administrative state (as rhymedirective points out), actually getting those benefits was often somewhere from difficult to impossible.
posted by soundguy99 at 5:51 PM on November 6, 2023 [6 favorites]
The most messed up thing about the US response is that the US wrote the book on pandemic response. Trained the world on pandemic response. And then just… didn’t do it.
all of the institutional knowledge re: how to contain a global pandemic had turned to dust. Everything was improvisation.
As I recall, the Trump administration threw all of the prepared work OUT. Hell, per this article, even Dubya got that this could be a problem.
people got all hot under the collar when the concept of "breakthrough infections" was mentioned because that couldn't happen, the vaccines were 99% effective etc etc. And then, a year later, the line was "of course there are breakthrough infections, nobody ever said that vaccines would stop you from getting COVID." Which, of course, was exactly what was touted when the vaccines first came out.
I found it ridiculous that suddenly we were all to "understand" that vaccines didn't really do much of anything. My whole life, I get a flu shot, I don't get flu. I get vaxxed for polio, guess what, I never got polio. You get vaxxed for covid, guess what, you'll still get covid for the rest of your life. *record scratch* Whaaaaaaaat? You told me it was 95% effective, darned right I assumed I never had to worry about this fucking shit again, and then they acted like we were all idiots for believing them.
posted by jenfullmoon at 5:55 PM on November 6, 2023 [9 favorites]
all of the institutional knowledge re: how to contain a global pandemic had turned to dust. Everything was improvisation.
As I recall, the Trump administration threw all of the prepared work OUT. Hell, per this article, even Dubya got that this could be a problem.
people got all hot under the collar when the concept of "breakthrough infections" was mentioned because that couldn't happen, the vaccines were 99% effective etc etc. And then, a year later, the line was "of course there are breakthrough infections, nobody ever said that vaccines would stop you from getting COVID." Which, of course, was exactly what was touted when the vaccines first came out.
I found it ridiculous that suddenly we were all to "understand" that vaccines didn't really do much of anything. My whole life, I get a flu shot, I don't get flu. I get vaxxed for polio, guess what, I never got polio. You get vaxxed for covid, guess what, you'll still get covid for the rest of your life. *record scratch* Whaaaaaaaat? You told me it was 95% effective, darned right I assumed I never had to worry about this fucking shit again, and then they acted like we were all idiots for believing them.
posted by jenfullmoon at 5:55 PM on November 6, 2023 [9 favorites]
It is so easy to forget that, at the beginning of the pandemic, nobody had a clue what was going on
"You just breathe the air and that’s how it’s passed," Trump said in a Feb. 7 [2020] call [to journalist Bob Woodward]. "And so that’s a very tricky one. That’s a very delicate one. It’s also more deadly than even your strenuous flus."
"This is deadly stuff," the president repeated for emphasis. At that time, Trump was telling the nation that the virus was no worse than a seasonal flu, predicting it would soon disappear and insisting that the U.S. government had it totally under control. (Washington Post, 9/9/20, with audio clip.)
"Now it's turning out it's not just old people, Bob. But just today, and yesterday, some startling facts came out. It's not just old, older," Trump said [in a March 2020 Woodward call], according to an audio clip, and then added, "young people, too, plenty of young people." (NBC, 9/9/20)
posted by Iris Gambol at 5:55 PM on November 6, 2023 [7 favorites]
"You just breathe the air and that’s how it’s passed," Trump said in a Feb. 7 [2020] call [to journalist Bob Woodward]. "And so that’s a very tricky one. That’s a very delicate one. It’s also more deadly than even your strenuous flus."
"This is deadly stuff," the president repeated for emphasis. At that time, Trump was telling the nation that the virus was no worse than a seasonal flu, predicting it would soon disappear and insisting that the U.S. government had it totally under control. (Washington Post, 9/9/20, with audio clip.)
"Now it's turning out it's not just old people, Bob. But just today, and yesterday, some startling facts came out. It's not just old, older," Trump said [in a March 2020 Woodward call], according to an audio clip, and then added, "young people, too, plenty of young people." (NBC, 9/9/20)
posted by Iris Gambol at 5:55 PM on November 6, 2023 [7 favorites]
My home state in Australia had some of the longest lockdowns in the world - months long over 2 years. It was hell as a single person, especially one with mental health conditions.
There was no clear information about whether a mental health crisis counted as enough of an "emergency" to get help. People - even the most ACAB of folk - were overly in favour of calling the cops on any possible infraction, never mind that the cops tended to pester people of colour and Indigenous folk doing allowed things like groceries way more. "Compassionate reasons" were so poorly defined that I couldn't even get anyone willing to "risk being arrested" when I had a medical situation and the paramedics suggested I stay home with supervision rather than try and spend it in emergency. I tried to check into a mental health facility but after rounds of interviews I was told that they shut down all intake due to Covid - why don't I try a cold shower and a walk? I managed to wrangle a doctor's letter and stay with a friend for a while, because it was either that or take my life, but I became so agoraphobic because I was so worried I'd be stopped by a cop who'd see that my ID address was technically "too far" and give me trouble. It took FOREVER before our local government allowed a "single social distance buddy" for those of us who didn't have "intimate partners" (another poorly defined term) or families nearby. If you were a freelance artsworker, our industry was the hardest hit by lockdowns, but getting any financial support was nigh difficult. Jobseeker (social security) became oddly easier to get, but that was an anomaly.
And what do we have to show for it? People (including me) getting multiple bouts of Covid in a row once it was "all over". And these were folk who got all the boosters possible and masked up and "did the right thing". Medical treatment for Covid if you weren't a senior citizen and on your literal deathbed was impossible to get. There has been hardly any progress towards care or quality of life for those of us who have/had Covid, especially those with Long Covid - we're pretty much left to our own devices and accused of being "anti vaxxers who want disabled people to die" when we dare ask about how to deal with post-Covid life. Jobseeker has become difficult again and they've ONLY JUST added guaranteed sick pay for freelance artists - but who knows what kind of paperwork suck it would be.
Lockdown in and of itself may not have been a terrible idea, but the execution was severely lacking. Yet try to address any of that and again - "you want disabled people to die". Never mind if you're disabled yourself and the lack of access to care is what would kill you!!!
posted by creatrixtiara at 5:56 PM on November 6, 2023 [6 favorites]
There was no clear information about whether a mental health crisis counted as enough of an "emergency" to get help. People - even the most ACAB of folk - were overly in favour of calling the cops on any possible infraction, never mind that the cops tended to pester people of colour and Indigenous folk doing allowed things like groceries way more. "Compassionate reasons" were so poorly defined that I couldn't even get anyone willing to "risk being arrested" when I had a medical situation and the paramedics suggested I stay home with supervision rather than try and spend it in emergency. I tried to check into a mental health facility but after rounds of interviews I was told that they shut down all intake due to Covid - why don't I try a cold shower and a walk? I managed to wrangle a doctor's letter and stay with a friend for a while, because it was either that or take my life, but I became so agoraphobic because I was so worried I'd be stopped by a cop who'd see that my ID address was technically "too far" and give me trouble. It took FOREVER before our local government allowed a "single social distance buddy" for those of us who didn't have "intimate partners" (another poorly defined term) or families nearby. If you were a freelance artsworker, our industry was the hardest hit by lockdowns, but getting any financial support was nigh difficult. Jobseeker (social security) became oddly easier to get, but that was an anomaly.
And what do we have to show for it? People (including me) getting multiple bouts of Covid in a row once it was "all over". And these were folk who got all the boosters possible and masked up and "did the right thing". Medical treatment for Covid if you weren't a senior citizen and on your literal deathbed was impossible to get. There has been hardly any progress towards care or quality of life for those of us who have/had Covid, especially those with Long Covid - we're pretty much left to our own devices and accused of being "anti vaxxers who want disabled people to die" when we dare ask about how to deal with post-Covid life. Jobseeker has become difficult again and they've ONLY JUST added guaranteed sick pay for freelance artists - but who knows what kind of paperwork suck it would be.
Lockdown in and of itself may not have been a terrible idea, but the execution was severely lacking. Yet try to address any of that and again - "you want disabled people to die". Never mind if you're disabled yourself and the lack of access to care is what would kill you!!!
posted by creatrixtiara at 5:56 PM on November 6, 2023 [6 favorites]
When I made the comment about length vs effectiveness I was thinking about Victoria. My daughter was living in Melbourne at the time and it was very tough on her. But when I read the rules and exceptions it seemed to me a substantially weaker regime than NZs Alert Level 4. It seemed VIC got the worst of both worlds, onerous enough to be awful as it went on, but too weak to achieve its aims quickly. Probably harder with long land borders too. And you need a high degree of compliance for it work, and if people get tired of complying as time goes on, then you're stuck: should you extend a lockdown for longer though it's becoming less effective at preventing transmission? I am a cheerleader for short and stringent but aware it doesn't work without major cooperation from almost everyone. In NZ Delta finally got loose via our gangs who for lots of reasons don't give a shit (and the drug trade can't stop for lockdown, the meth must flow).
posted by i_am_joe's_spleen at 6:04 PM on November 6, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by i_am_joe's_spleen at 6:04 PM on November 6, 2023 [1 favorite]
Lockdown in and of itself may not have been a terrible idea, but the execution was severely lacking.
Problem is, it needs coordination - global coordination for a global pandemic. And the US (not exclusively, but as one of the major influencers, both economically and within the WHO) kind of f’d that up for the rest of us.
posted by eviemath at 6:13 PM on November 6, 2023 [4 favorites]
Problem is, it needs coordination - global coordination for a global pandemic. And the US (not exclusively, but as one of the major influencers, both economically and within the WHO) kind of f’d that up for the rest of us.
posted by eviemath at 6:13 PM on November 6, 2023 [4 favorites]
Eh, can't blame the US for the decisions the Australian and Victorian state bureaucracy made, such as forgetting that single people living on their own and/or people with significant mental health care needs exist.
posted by creatrixtiara at 6:22 PM on November 6, 2023
posted by creatrixtiara at 6:22 PM on November 6, 2023
Like, I was in the Bay Area just as lockdowns started to be a thing and scrambled to be on what turned out to be the last flight back to Australia. Wished I'd stayed because the Bay Area stay in place rules explicitly said helping friends and family was allowed, which was more than we ever really got.
posted by creatrixtiara at 6:25 PM on November 6, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by creatrixtiara at 6:25 PM on November 6, 2023 [2 favorites]
I get a flu shot, I don't get flu. I get vaxxed for polio, guess what, I never got polio. You get vaxxed for covid, guess what, you'll still get covid for the rest of your life.
You don't seem to understand how vaccines work. Vaccines prime your immune system so that WHEN you catch the disease, your immune system can fight it off more successfully.
The symptoms you get from a lot of viral diseases are a consequence of how hard your immune system has to work to fight the disease. For example most of the symptoms we associate with flu are actually side effects of your immune system pumping out interferon to eradicate the virus. Vaccines help by getting the immune system to recognise the infection early, stamping out the infection before the viral load gets high enough that you start to feel crappy due to the immune system doing its work.
You get a flu shot, you may or may not get flu, but if you do, your immune system fights it off without you noticing.
You don't get polio, because in the majority of the world, polio has been eliminated - by the herd immunity conferred by vaccines.
You get vaxxed for covid, you may or may not get covid, and if you get it, you may or may not notice you've got it, depending on how well your immune system fights it off.
No vaccine ever stops you from being infected, but it can significantly lower your chances of death/serious illness/even noticing that you were infected.
And if you wonder why you have to keep getting anti-covid shots, it's for the same reason you need yearly flu shots. Viruses mutate, and viruses involved in widespread infection can mutate a lot - you need to keep your immune system up to date.
posted by HiroProtagonist at 6:29 PM on November 6, 2023 [31 favorites]
You don't seem to understand how vaccines work. Vaccines prime your immune system so that WHEN you catch the disease, your immune system can fight it off more successfully.
The symptoms you get from a lot of viral diseases are a consequence of how hard your immune system has to work to fight the disease. For example most of the symptoms we associate with flu are actually side effects of your immune system pumping out interferon to eradicate the virus. Vaccines help by getting the immune system to recognise the infection early, stamping out the infection before the viral load gets high enough that you start to feel crappy due to the immune system doing its work.
You get a flu shot, you may or may not get flu, but if you do, your immune system fights it off without you noticing.
You don't get polio, because in the majority of the world, polio has been eliminated - by the herd immunity conferred by vaccines.
You get vaxxed for covid, you may or may not get covid, and if you get it, you may or may not notice you've got it, depending on how well your immune system fights it off.
No vaccine ever stops you from being infected, but it can significantly lower your chances of death/serious illness/even noticing that you were infected.
And if you wonder why you have to keep getting anti-covid shots, it's for the same reason you need yearly flu shots. Viruses mutate, and viruses involved in widespread infection can mutate a lot - you need to keep your immune system up to date.
posted by HiroProtagonist at 6:29 PM on November 6, 2023 [31 favorites]
Saw a social media comment referencing a paper where multiple covid infections increased the likelihood of long-covid.
Get your shot.
posted by sammyo at 6:37 PM on November 6, 2023 [6 favorites]
Get your shot.
posted by sammyo at 6:37 PM on November 6, 2023 [6 favorites]
No vaccine ever stops you from being infected
Yeah, that's true, but that is 100% not what the PR was when the vaccines came out. A complete failure of expectation setting on the part of the entire public health apparatus.
posted by grumpybear69 at 7:02 PM on November 6, 2023 [5 favorites]
Yeah, that's true, but that is 100% not what the PR was when the vaccines came out. A complete failure of expectation setting on the part of the entire public health apparatus.
posted by grumpybear69 at 7:02 PM on November 6, 2023 [5 favorites]
Get your shot.
I mean, some of us got our shots multiple times and still got multiple bouts of Covid, do what now
posted by creatrixtiara at 7:04 PM on November 6, 2023
I mean, some of us got our shots multiple times and still got multiple bouts of Covid, do what now
posted by creatrixtiara at 7:04 PM on November 6, 2023
Public health comms is really hard, you need to reach everyone at every education level and level of awareness with a simple message that will cause behaviour change. It's much harder when there are active disinformation operations exploiting every simplification (THEYRE NOT TELLING YOU X) and also distorting every nuance (EVEN THE LYING GOVERNMENT ADMITS THE VAX CAUSES FATAL HEART DISEASE). I have a lot of sympathy for public health comms folk.
posted by i_am_joe's_spleen at 7:08 PM on November 6, 2023 [10 favorites]
posted by i_am_joe's_spleen at 7:08 PM on November 6, 2023 [10 favorites]
Yeah, that's true, but that is 100% not what the PR was when the vaccines came out.
This is not what I remember at all.
I remember hearing endlessly about how vaccination is a collective process. One person getting a vaccine does not a vaccination make. The vaccine is not a solution. Vaccination is the solution.
This collective judgement is what made it so difficult to live in a place you knew people didn't want the vaccine. Because other people had the power to make you sick, no matter what you did. (Besides hide in your house)
That stuff.
posted by eustatic at 7:22 PM on November 6, 2023 [11 favorites]
This is not what I remember at all.
I remember hearing endlessly about how vaccination is a collective process. One person getting a vaccine does not a vaccination make. The vaccine is not a solution. Vaccination is the solution.
This collective judgement is what made it so difficult to live in a place you knew people didn't want the vaccine. Because other people had the power to make you sick, no matter what you did. (Besides hide in your house)
That stuff.
posted by eustatic at 7:22 PM on November 6, 2023 [11 favorites]
I think the US got vax comms right at first. They tried to slow the roll of the “return to normal” crowd until they had what looked like good evidence that the vaccine protected against infection and not just severe outcomes. They saw bad uptake data and took what looked to me like a gamble, that if they promised the vaccine would end the crisis they’d get better uptake, and that didn’t really work. And once Delta hit they did try to rein people in again, but nonpharm interventions never got back to where they’d been (which of course hadn’t really been enough). It wasn’t till Omicron that comms got (in my view) really incoherent.
posted by eirias at 7:38 PM on November 6, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by eirias at 7:38 PM on November 6, 2023 [3 favorites]
Anyway, this article sucks. I definitely do not want to read a book by these authors.
Apparently, lockdowns are bad, except when they are good, and then they are not real lockdowns.
Ok. I am not reading any more of this, lest I grow brainworms.
posted by eustatic at 7:41 PM on November 6, 2023 [5 favorites]
Apparently, lockdowns are bad, except when they are good, and then they are not real lockdowns.
Ok. I am not reading any more of this, lest I grow brainworms.
posted by eustatic at 7:41 PM on November 6, 2023 [5 favorites]
They other argument about not closing schools is also weird, and I feel it is missing information.
When they opened the schools, the schools would just have to close again in a week, since so many kids were getting sick, and then the others would quarantine, which would shut down the class anyway.
Sure that online learning is bad. But so are classes where one third of the class is there, One third of the class is online, and one third of the class is sick
I don't think opening the schools while the infections were still happening did much to improve learning environment. Nothing was normal, and pretending did not help. It seems like trying to turn a t -test on this would be fraught at least. And then it is saying that students didn't get sick when school was re opened, which was not my experience, at all. That just seems like motivated reasoning
posted by eustatic at 7:54 PM on November 6, 2023 [11 favorites]
When they opened the schools, the schools would just have to close again in a week, since so many kids were getting sick, and then the others would quarantine, which would shut down the class anyway.
Sure that online learning is bad. But so are classes where one third of the class is there, One third of the class is online, and one third of the class is sick
I don't think opening the schools while the infections were still happening did much to improve learning environment. Nothing was normal, and pretending did not help. It seems like trying to turn a t -test on this would be fraught at least. And then it is saying that students didn't get sick when school was re opened, which was not my experience, at all. That just seems like motivated reasoning
posted by eustatic at 7:54 PM on November 6, 2023 [11 favorites]
I mean, some of us got our shots multiple times and still got multiple bouts of Covid, do what now
Unfortunately you live in a country with very low rates of vaccination. I don't know what you do now except keep getting vaccinated - after all, you're still alive.
I do know that telling people the vaccine doesn't work is unlikely to improve the situation.
posted by HiroProtagonist at 8:35 PM on November 6, 2023 [2 favorites]
Unfortunately you live in a country with very low rates of vaccination. I don't know what you do now except keep getting vaccinated - after all, you're still alive.
I do know that telling people the vaccine doesn't work is unlikely to improve the situation.
posted by HiroProtagonist at 8:35 PM on November 6, 2023 [2 favorites]
Unfortunately you live in a country with very low rates of vaccination.
???
97% of the eligible Australian population aged 12+ have received one dose
95.2% of the eligible Australian population aged 12+ are fully vaccinated
64.5% of the eligible Australian population aged 12+ are booster given
(Via Wikipedia, AusGov stopped tracking last year it seems)
posted by creatrixtiara at 8:51 PM on November 6, 2023 [3 favorites]
???
97% of the eligible Australian population aged 12+ have received one dose
95.2% of the eligible Australian population aged 12+ are fully vaccinated
64.5% of the eligible Australian population aged 12+ are booster given
(Via Wikipedia, AusGov stopped tracking last year it seems)
posted by creatrixtiara at 8:51 PM on November 6, 2023 [3 favorites]
And why do people make the jump from "there's not a lot of info or help for people who've gotten Covid" to "therefore those of us who are asking for help are saying the vaccine must not work"
posted by creatrixtiara at 8:53 PM on November 6, 2023
posted by creatrixtiara at 8:53 PM on November 6, 2023
97% of the eligible Australian population
Apologies, I assumed wrong.
posted by HiroProtagonist at 9:04 PM on November 6, 2023
Apologies, I assumed wrong.
posted by HiroProtagonist at 9:04 PM on November 6, 2023
Businesses that needed the PPP loans to service debt were probably already in trouble.
That is probably true, as many small businesses are continually on the brink, especially the “one 26 year old owner with a dream” martial arts businesses. But they spread disease — and attitudes — regardless. That’s I guess what I haven’t made clear. Small businesses not complying meant more Covid cases. Up here we had inspectors driving around fining people and rent forgiveness and all kinds of things.
Some of our US companions literally put paper up on their windows and held martial arts classes…especially after Florida reopened. They encouraged - called - their students to come in. They shared techniques with each other on how to do that.
posted by warriorqueen at 3:10 AM on November 7, 2023 [6 favorites]
That is probably true, as many small businesses are continually on the brink, especially the “one 26 year old owner with a dream” martial arts businesses. But they spread disease — and attitudes — regardless. That’s I guess what I haven’t made clear. Small businesses not complying meant more Covid cases. Up here we had inspectors driving around fining people and rent forgiveness and all kinds of things.
Some of our US companions literally put paper up on their windows and held martial arts classes…especially after Florida reopened. They encouraged - called - their students to come in. They shared techniques with each other on how to do that.
posted by warriorqueen at 3:10 AM on November 7, 2023 [6 favorites]
I'm surprised when I see discussions of the quality of various responses to the pandemic that nobody mentions Vietnam.
See, I would grade response to the pandemic, to some extent, on the nation-level circumstances. Tuvalu had hardly any cases, but that's not an indication Tuvalu had a particularly great pandemic-response plan: it's because hardly anyone goes there even under normal circumstances. Everywhere's response was determined, to a large extent by geography (how feasible was preventing entry or transit at all?), economy (how dependent is the state on travel, trade, and other international interactions? how badly does everyone suffer if economic activity depending on in-person interaction is abruptly stopped?), and infrastructure (what extant resources can be deployed to help in a crisis?). On those bases, places like New Zealand (wealthy by global standards, geographically isolated, with a fairly well-developed health-care system) come with baked-in advantages. But for the most part, Vietnam had pretty low infection numbers despite not having those structural advantages. It's a county with a lot of trade, transit, and foreign workers coming and going. It's not, on a global scale, particularly wealthy (it's in the third quartile of per-capita GDP), Its borders are long and porous. Its economy depends on a lot of activities like manufacturing which can't be easily made remote. But one thing they had was a lot of testing. Testing all the time and quarantine protocols for positive tests. And masks everywhere, making sure to provide masks to everyone and a lot of public guidance on how to wear them. Not really rocket science, but it was mostly following through on practicing their established protocols constantly and consistently.
posted by jackbishop at 3:37 AM on November 7, 2023 [12 favorites]
See, I would grade response to the pandemic, to some extent, on the nation-level circumstances. Tuvalu had hardly any cases, but that's not an indication Tuvalu had a particularly great pandemic-response plan: it's because hardly anyone goes there even under normal circumstances. Everywhere's response was determined, to a large extent by geography (how feasible was preventing entry or transit at all?), economy (how dependent is the state on travel, trade, and other international interactions? how badly does everyone suffer if economic activity depending on in-person interaction is abruptly stopped?), and infrastructure (what extant resources can be deployed to help in a crisis?). On those bases, places like New Zealand (wealthy by global standards, geographically isolated, with a fairly well-developed health-care system) come with baked-in advantages. But for the most part, Vietnam had pretty low infection numbers despite not having those structural advantages. It's a county with a lot of trade, transit, and foreign workers coming and going. It's not, on a global scale, particularly wealthy (it's in the third quartile of per-capita GDP), Its borders are long and porous. Its economy depends on a lot of activities like manufacturing which can't be easily made remote. But one thing they had was a lot of testing. Testing all the time and quarantine protocols for positive tests. And masks everywhere, making sure to provide masks to everyone and a lot of public guidance on how to wear them. Not really rocket science, but it was mostly following through on practicing their established protocols constantly and consistently.
posted by jackbishop at 3:37 AM on November 7, 2023 [12 favorites]
I mean, some of us got our shots multiple times and still got multiple bouts of Covid, do what now
There are times when I feel certainly feel that way. I certainly felt that way when I missed getting together with family for Easter in 2021 because I had Covid and again at Christmas when I also tested positive. I got all my boosters, I stayed away from public gatherings, I masked up and I still got Covid. I'm still waiting for the CDC to put that goddamn star sticker next to my name.
But I still got the most recent booster. And you should too.
I understand the need to complain and be salty about it because we were clearly promised that if everyone got their shots everything would be back to normal by July of 2021 and that didn't happen because people didn't get their fucking shots. And it's very infuriating that, in the light of an unprecedented propaganda campaign to discredit the vaccine and prolong the misery of the pandemic, the federal government just gave up and accepted that vaccination wasn't going to save us.
I don't know how we could have responded to the politicization better, but like, have you seen Florida's surgeon general? Isn't there ANYTHING that can be done to shut that guy up?
posted by RonButNotStupid at 5:41 AM on November 7, 2023 [6 favorites]
There are times when I feel certainly feel that way. I certainly felt that way when I missed getting together with family for Easter in 2021 because I had Covid and again at Christmas when I also tested positive. I got all my boosters, I stayed away from public gatherings, I masked up and I still got Covid. I'm still waiting for the CDC to put that goddamn star sticker next to my name.
But I still got the most recent booster. And you should too.
I understand the need to complain and be salty about it because we were clearly promised that if everyone got their shots everything would be back to normal by July of 2021 and that didn't happen because people didn't get their fucking shots. And it's very infuriating that, in the light of an unprecedented propaganda campaign to discredit the vaccine and prolong the misery of the pandemic, the federal government just gave up and accepted that vaccination wasn't going to save us.
I don't know how we could have responded to the politicization better, but like, have you seen Florida's surgeon general? Isn't there ANYTHING that can be done to shut that guy up?
posted by RonButNotStupid at 5:41 AM on November 7, 2023 [6 favorites]
This is probably horrible of me, but I want someone to blame for what happened during the pandemic. Someone to yell at. Someone to watch as they sweat and squirm in a congressional hearing for hours and hours and hours. Someone who, if they don't go to prison for what they did, will have to live the rest of their life in Nixonian infamy--forever being a pariah with no chance of redemption.
And from my vantage point there are lots of people (Trump, Kushner, Abbot, DeSantis, Musk, Rogan, etc) who legitimately deserve the blame.
Yet we're going out of our way to forget all the ways in which their actions lead to unnecessary suffering. We can't even bother to declare a Covid Memorial Day because we'd rather just forget about it.
posted by RonButNotStupid at 6:02 AM on November 7, 2023 [7 favorites]
And from my vantage point there are lots of people (Trump, Kushner, Abbot, DeSantis, Musk, Rogan, etc) who legitimately deserve the blame.
Yet we're going out of our way to forget all the ways in which their actions lead to unnecessary suffering. We can't even bother to declare a Covid Memorial Day because we'd rather just forget about it.
posted by RonButNotStupid at 6:02 AM on November 7, 2023 [7 favorites]
I remember hearing endlessly about how vaccination is a collective process. One person getting a vaccine does not a vaccination make. The vaccine is not a solution. Vaccination is the solution.
Agreed, but a lot of places were instituting different rules for masking and gathering based on individual vaccination status, which really chipped away at that collectivity a LOT.
posted by entropone at 6:16 AM on November 7, 2023
Agreed, but a lot of places were instituting different rules for masking and gathering based on individual vaccination status, which really chipped away at that collectivity a LOT.
posted by entropone at 6:16 AM on November 7, 2023
I understand the need to complain and be salty about it because we were clearly promised that if everyone got their shots everything would be back to normal by July of 2021 and that didn't happen because people didn't get their fucking shots.
The thing is — this isn’t right. Getting our fucking shots helps, but it can’t make the crisis end. It maybe never could have, based on what we know now of how quickly this virus can mutate. And I think this “if only” thinking is part of the problem. At one point, public messaging was correctly focused on the fact that single-prong strategies would not work with this virus. Then a strategic decision was made to abandon this and focus on vaccination, as a thing that would only require resolve long enough to schedule and complete an appointment. My position has been that this is not a good strategy for getting people vaccinated, but it is apparently a great strategy for resigning most people to 1-2 infections a year.
posted by eirias at 6:47 AM on November 7, 2023 [5 favorites]
The thing is — this isn’t right. Getting our fucking shots helps, but it can’t make the crisis end. It maybe never could have, based on what we know now of how quickly this virus can mutate. And I think this “if only” thinking is part of the problem. At one point, public messaging was correctly focused on the fact that single-prong strategies would not work with this virus. Then a strategic decision was made to abandon this and focus on vaccination, as a thing that would only require resolve long enough to schedule and complete an appointment. My position has been that this is not a good strategy for getting people vaccinated, but it is apparently a great strategy for resigning most people to 1-2 infections a year.
posted by eirias at 6:47 AM on November 7, 2023 [5 favorites]
My home state in Australia had some of the longest lockdowns in the world - months long over 2 years. It was hell as a single person, especially one with mental health conditions.
I don't feel like we've really acknowledged all the costs of the lockdowns, in terms of the tradeoffs that happened that were really hard on people. I lived alone for the first 3/4 of a year of the lockdown here, and it was incredibly isolating and awful. I had a close family member pass away during the severe lockdown period and no one was allowed to go to the hospital or visit in any way other than a couple of short video calls. I could go on, and that was just my own, quite privileged experience; so many people had it unimaginably worse than I did.
I'm not anti-lockdown, especially around the issue of needing to manage hospital capacity, but there is so much that could have been done better. We're starting to get some solid analyses of how bad the effects of the school closures were, which is good but also frustrating because a lot of it was known and warned about at the time but people chose to prioritize other things.
posted by Dip Flash at 7:14 AM on November 7, 2023 [1 favorite]
I don't feel like we've really acknowledged all the costs of the lockdowns, in terms of the tradeoffs that happened that were really hard on people. I lived alone for the first 3/4 of a year of the lockdown here, and it was incredibly isolating and awful. I had a close family member pass away during the severe lockdown period and no one was allowed to go to the hospital or visit in any way other than a couple of short video calls. I could go on, and that was just my own, quite privileged experience; so many people had it unimaginably worse than I did.
I'm not anti-lockdown, especially around the issue of needing to manage hospital capacity, but there is so much that could have been done better. We're starting to get some solid analyses of how bad the effects of the school closures were, which is good but also frustrating because a lot of it was known and warned about at the time but people chose to prioritize other things.
posted by Dip Flash at 7:14 AM on November 7, 2023 [1 favorite]
The only good thing to come out of lockdown for me was the trivia app that my wife and I developed and the weekly trivia group that sprung up around it. We made new lifelong friends and got to see two babies grow into walking, talking shenanigan factories. I'm grateful for that.
posted by grumpybear69 at 7:19 AM on November 7, 2023
posted by grumpybear69 at 7:19 AM on November 7, 2023
I know a lot of people cheated or stretched the definition of "essential" but there were certainly bans on socializing.
This is true, even where I live (which is specifically what I was referring to), but not for a year.
In the very beginning, it was: "stay home except for buying groceries or going to work if you are an essential worker." Most businesses were ordered closed.
After a while, it was opened up to allow limited socializing, with specific accommodations for people who lived alone (they were allowed a larger "bubble," if I recall correctly, to account for the extra stress and mental toll of loneliness).
So, yes, certainly there were bans on socializing at various points (mostly at the beginning, but also at some later points), and they varied by jurisdiction, but not to the extent that many people were "confined to their homes for a year."
posted by asnider at 7:44 AM on November 7, 2023 [1 favorite]
This is true, even where I live (which is specifically what I was referring to), but not for a year.
In the very beginning, it was: "stay home except for buying groceries or going to work if you are an essential worker." Most businesses were ordered closed.
After a while, it was opened up to allow limited socializing, with specific accommodations for people who lived alone (they were allowed a larger "bubble," if I recall correctly, to account for the extra stress and mental toll of loneliness).
So, yes, certainly there were bans on socializing at various points (mostly at the beginning, but also at some later points), and they varied by jurisdiction, but not to the extent that many people were "confined to their homes for a year."
posted by asnider at 7:44 AM on November 7, 2023 [1 favorite]
I get a flu shot, I don't get flu.
maybe I'm an outlier but the two worst flues of my adult life came on years when I got the flu vaccine. Neither required hospitalization but both came close. This doesn't mean that flu vaccines don't work. It does mean that every year a decision gets calculated as to which potential strain of flu to vaccinate against. Sometimes they get it wrong ... for you.
This stuff is the definition of complex.
posted by philip-random at 7:49 AM on November 7, 2023 [6 favorites]
maybe I'm an outlier but the two worst flues of my adult life came on years when I got the flu vaccine. Neither required hospitalization but both came close. This doesn't mean that flu vaccines don't work. It does mean that every year a decision gets calculated as to which potential strain of flu to vaccinate against. Sometimes they get it wrong ... for you.
This stuff is the definition of complex.
posted by philip-random at 7:49 AM on November 7, 2023 [6 favorites]
I don't feel like we've really acknowledged all the costs of the lockdowns, in terms of the tradeoffs that happened that were really hard on people.
I would argue that we've cheapened and debased the lockdowns by constantly re-litigating whether they were necessary. We didn't know much about the virus back then, and it was a big deal in March of 2020 to stay home and isolate. It wasn't fun, and lots lots of people made sacrifices because it was both necessary and the right thing to do.
People were traumatized by the lockdowns, and I don't think it's fair to reexamine things with the benefit of hindsight and say "You know how spent a year huddling alone and scared? Well guess what, You didn't have to!". When someone casually dismisses the lockdowns, they're also dismissing the trauma of the lockdowns.
We should instead be celebrating how much we flattened the curve and the collective spirit that got us through the lockdowns. But you know that's not going to happen because of politicization.
posted by RonButNotStupid at 8:02 AM on November 7, 2023 [8 favorites]
I would argue that we've cheapened and debased the lockdowns by constantly re-litigating whether they were necessary. We didn't know much about the virus back then, and it was a big deal in March of 2020 to stay home and isolate. It wasn't fun, and lots lots of people made sacrifices because it was both necessary and the right thing to do.
People were traumatized by the lockdowns, and I don't think it's fair to reexamine things with the benefit of hindsight and say "You know how spent a year huddling alone and scared? Well guess what, You didn't have to!". When someone casually dismisses the lockdowns, they're also dismissing the trauma of the lockdowns.
We should instead be celebrating how much we flattened the curve and the collective spirit that got us through the lockdowns. But you know that's not going to happen because of politicization.
posted by RonButNotStupid at 8:02 AM on November 7, 2023 [8 favorites]
But I still got the most recent booster. And you should too.
Sorry not sorry but this kind of sentiment is patronizing.
I'm currently part of a Covid booster study to see if booster shots are still effective (and if so, on what schedule). But even if I wasn't - having the response to "what options are there for people who have already gotten Covid to not suffer" be "well you should get the booster anyway sweaty :))))))" is missing the damn point.
Many of us ARE getting boosters and will get more boosters if and when we're allowed to. But we can't exactly un-get Covid. Treating us as "unfortunately" lost causes is demeaning and is counterproductive to the work to eradicate Covid. Many of us are somehow still alive - or are we more worth caring for when we're dead because then hey at least it makes sense to call us "unfortunate"?
We're only "unfortunate" because the energy to provide Covid survivors with quality of care - medical or otherwise - is severely lacking. All of that time in lockdown and quarantine and whatnot - for what???
posted by creatrixtiara at 8:03 AM on November 7, 2023 [1 favorite]
Sorry not sorry but this kind of sentiment is patronizing.
I'm currently part of a Covid booster study to see if booster shots are still effective (and if so, on what schedule). But even if I wasn't - having the response to "what options are there for people who have already gotten Covid to not suffer" be "well you should get the booster anyway sweaty :))))))" is missing the damn point.
Many of us ARE getting boosters and will get more boosters if and when we're allowed to. But we can't exactly un-get Covid. Treating us as "unfortunately" lost causes is demeaning and is counterproductive to the work to eradicate Covid. Many of us are somehow still alive - or are we more worth caring for when we're dead because then hey at least it makes sense to call us "unfortunate"?
We're only "unfortunate" because the energy to provide Covid survivors with quality of care - medical or otherwise - is severely lacking. All of that time in lockdown and quarantine and whatnot - for what???
posted by creatrixtiara at 8:03 AM on November 7, 2023 [1 favorite]
No vaccine ever stops you from being infected
Yeah, that's true, but that is 100% not what the PR was when the vaccines came out. A complete failure of expectation setting on the part of
the best short explanation I've come across for what happened during Covid was. "Our culture got a stress test. We failed the test."
But which culture exactly? This thing involved all cultures, the whole world. I guess I'm thinking western, liberalized, comparatively secular democracy because that's what I'm living in and I always have. And yes, USA would be Mr. Big in that regard. And what I saw failing was, first and foremost, trust -- in our leaders, our institutions, our media, our experts, our neighbours even ...
In other words, when it was most imperative, our lines of communication failed in all manner of complex ways. Which I guess is my main takeaway from the past three or so years. You can pour gazillions of dollars into various forms of scientific and infrastructural and political preparedness -- if too many people just aren't going to trust "the experts", we're going to fail (we being the culture).
So ... how do we improve these trust issues?
posted by philip-random at 8:19 AM on November 7, 2023 [1 favorite]
Yeah, that's true, but that is 100% not what the PR was when the vaccines came out. A complete failure of expectation setting on the part of
the best short explanation I've come across for what happened during Covid was. "Our culture got a stress test. We failed the test."
But which culture exactly? This thing involved all cultures, the whole world. I guess I'm thinking western, liberalized, comparatively secular democracy because that's what I'm living in and I always have. And yes, USA would be Mr. Big in that regard. And what I saw failing was, first and foremost, trust -- in our leaders, our institutions, our media, our experts, our neighbours even ...
In other words, when it was most imperative, our lines of communication failed in all manner of complex ways. Which I guess is my main takeaway from the past three or so years. You can pour gazillions of dollars into various forms of scientific and infrastructural and political preparedness -- if too many people just aren't going to trust "the experts", we're going to fail (we being the culture).
So ... how do we improve these trust issues?
posted by philip-random at 8:19 AM on November 7, 2023 [1 favorite]
disproportionately clustered in U.S. states with lower mean years of education, higher poverty rates, limited access to quality health care, and less interpersonal trust
This is probably horrible of me, but I want someone to blame for what happened during the pandemic
It's even worse if you group by US metros with those clusters, instead of states (Mississippi has some rich people who most assuredly weren't terribly effected by COVID). And since, we've done nothing to change those stats (ie: build medical facilities in high-poverty areas, extend benefits started under COVID, improve sick leave policies for essential jobs), and so the people to yell at are still in power.
posted by The_Vegetables at 8:21 AM on November 7, 2023 [2 favorites]
This is probably horrible of me, but I want someone to blame for what happened during the pandemic
It's even worse if you group by US metros with those clusters, instead of states (Mississippi has some rich people who most assuredly weren't terribly effected by COVID). And since, we've done nothing to change those stats (ie: build medical facilities in high-poverty areas, extend benefits started under COVID, improve sick leave policies for essential jobs), and so the people to yell at are still in power.
posted by The_Vegetables at 8:21 AM on November 7, 2023 [2 favorites]
I feel like the Covid era, concomitant with the era of the Orange Menace, stripped bare and amplified the social differences within our USian culture.
I can't even try to talk about Covid with ... anyone, anymore. People are entrenched where they are. Any effort to bring hard, cold evidence into the conversation is met with so much resistance and "well I heard" and "you're just wrong" based on selfish thinking -- such as, the wishful idea that long Covid risks are similar to that of a car accident -- that .... I just can't. It's over. I'm living my own quiet, careful life within a world that is living quite differently, and does not care whether or how I live.
The stubborn lack of masking within health care facilities, by providers and patients alike, is what drives this home for me. An easy, low-cost, effective intervention that is clearly needed by many vulnerable people right in front of your face, and yet, all the precious faces must be free to ..... something something Freedom.
posted by Dashy at 8:28 AM on November 7, 2023 [9 favorites]
I can't even try to talk about Covid with ... anyone, anymore. People are entrenched where they are. Any effort to bring hard, cold evidence into the conversation is met with so much resistance and "well I heard" and "you're just wrong" based on selfish thinking -- such as, the wishful idea that long Covid risks are similar to that of a car accident -- that .... I just can't. It's over. I'm living my own quiet, careful life within a world that is living quite differently, and does not care whether or how I live.
The stubborn lack of masking within health care facilities, by providers and patients alike, is what drives this home for me. An easy, low-cost, effective intervention that is clearly needed by many vulnerable people right in front of your face, and yet, all the precious faces must be free to ..... something something Freedom.
posted by Dashy at 8:28 AM on November 7, 2023 [9 favorites]
Re: the expectation of vaccine performance, and how that Provincetown outbreak changed it: https://www.wbur.org/news/2022/06/30/ptown-covid-outbreak-anniversary-lessons
"Heading into the weekend, there were no cases in the area. A week later, the positive cases started rolling in. For a highly vaccinated population, this came as a big surprise.
“This was absolutely a key moment and a bit of a turning point, certainly in our thinking,” said Bronwyn MacInnis, the director of genomic surveillance at the Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard. “It just showed us that there was more to come, and the virus had more tricks up its sleeve.”
MacInnis and her team used clues from the virus's genetic code to trace how the outbreak spread through Provincetown. They discovered that fully vaccinated people could still get infected and, perhaps even more concerning, they could still spread COVID.
“The takeaway was essentially just that vaccinated individuals were almost as capable as unvaccinated individuals in spreading the virus,” she said, adding that other factors, such as viral load and length of exposure time appeared to have a bigger effect on transmission than vaccination.
This realization prompted the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to reverse earlier guidance and recommend masking for vaccinated people indoors in certain settings."
We didn't know! The experts didn't know. And that's OK - we lived through a giant medical experiment, of course viewpoints and advice were going to change. There's no point in erasing the fact that we had incorrect information and beliefs to begin with.
posted by grumpybear69 at 8:32 AM on November 7, 2023 [20 favorites]
"Heading into the weekend, there were no cases in the area. A week later, the positive cases started rolling in. For a highly vaccinated population, this came as a big surprise.
“This was absolutely a key moment and a bit of a turning point, certainly in our thinking,” said Bronwyn MacInnis, the director of genomic surveillance at the Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard. “It just showed us that there was more to come, and the virus had more tricks up its sleeve.”
MacInnis and her team used clues from the virus's genetic code to trace how the outbreak spread through Provincetown. They discovered that fully vaccinated people could still get infected and, perhaps even more concerning, they could still spread COVID.
“The takeaway was essentially just that vaccinated individuals were almost as capable as unvaccinated individuals in spreading the virus,” she said, adding that other factors, such as viral load and length of exposure time appeared to have a bigger effect on transmission than vaccination.
This realization prompted the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to reverse earlier guidance and recommend masking for vaccinated people indoors in certain settings."
We didn't know! The experts didn't know. And that's OK - we lived through a giant medical experiment, of course viewpoints and advice were going to change. There's no point in erasing the fact that we had incorrect information and beliefs to begin with.
posted by grumpybear69 at 8:32 AM on November 7, 2023 [20 favorites]
Exactly. It's the same as the people who get angry when they update food health guidelines, or a new fact about evolution. Science changes as we learn. And the messages will change with it.
posted by tiny frying pan at 8:37 AM on November 7, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by tiny frying pan at 8:37 AM on November 7, 2023 [4 favorites]
We didn't know! The experts didn't know.
Another way of looking at this would be that the experts and the decision makers were quite biased in their assumptions for political reasons (and probably also basic human psychology). There weren't many reasons to believe a vaccine for a rapidly evolving coronavirus would give sterilizing immunity, yet it was stated as a fact.
It would, in fact, be useful for us to look back at what went wrong there and see how we can do better in the future, because the information we needed was available to us, but we chose to ignore it in favour of an unrealistically rosy picture based on limited studies that definitely did not cover what we really needed to know. It's easy to just say we couldn't have possibly known, but that's not true and not helpful for the future.
posted by ssg at 8:53 AM on November 7, 2023 [4 favorites]
Another way of looking at this would be that the experts and the decision makers were quite biased in their assumptions for political reasons (and probably also basic human psychology). There weren't many reasons to believe a vaccine for a rapidly evolving coronavirus would give sterilizing immunity, yet it was stated as a fact.
It would, in fact, be useful for us to look back at what went wrong there and see how we can do better in the future, because the information we needed was available to us, but we chose to ignore it in favour of an unrealistically rosy picture based on limited studies that definitely did not cover what we really needed to know. It's easy to just say we couldn't have possibly known, but that's not true and not helpful for the future.
posted by ssg at 8:53 AM on November 7, 2023 [4 favorites]
I don't feel like these things were stated as fact, that vaccines would completely prevent transmission. Flattening the curve is what I remember. I think the impression people got was vaccines would prevent covid...because for a while, they did?
The more I read people's impressions of the heavy covid years, the more I mistrust my own and everyone else's memory.
posted by tiny frying pan at 8:58 AM on November 7, 2023 [4 favorites]
The more I read people's impressions of the heavy covid years, the more I mistrust my own and everyone else's memory.
posted by tiny frying pan at 8:58 AM on November 7, 2023 [4 favorites]
I don't feel like these things were stated as fact, that vaccines would completely prevent transmission. Flattening the curve is what I remember. I think the impression people got was vaccines would prevent covid...because for a while, they did?
The NYTimes for a long time during the early vaccine rollout had these little charts showing vaccine takeup and with lines showing where "herd immunity" would be reached. There was definitely the expectation for a while that the vaccines would work like the polio vaccine, where once you immunize enough people, you can eradicate the disease from a country or continent.
posted by Dip Flash at 9:24 AM on November 7, 2023 [3 favorites]
The NYTimes for a long time during the early vaccine rollout had these little charts showing vaccine takeup and with lines showing where "herd immunity" would be reached. There was definitely the expectation for a while that the vaccines would work like the polio vaccine, where once you immunize enough people, you can eradicate the disease from a country or continent.
posted by Dip Flash at 9:24 AM on November 7, 2023 [3 favorites]
Oh. Well the NYTimes isn't a source I've trusted for years, not to say that many people did and do.
Herd immunity was never touted by any source I read back then, know that for sure. In fact, I thought the concept was widely denounced as "not a thing" so it sucks they did that.
posted by tiny frying pan at 9:27 AM on November 7, 2023 [1 favorite]
Herd immunity was never touted by any source I read back then, know that for sure. In fact, I thought the concept was widely denounced as "not a thing" so it sucks they did that.
posted by tiny frying pan at 9:27 AM on November 7, 2023 [1 favorite]
My memory, fwiw, is that a significant number of people assumed it would prevent transmission, due entirely to their own assumptions and not media, and then tried to use that as a 'gotcha.' I don't remember the CDC or any other official outlet saying that it would prevent transmission.
posted by tofu_crouton at 9:36 AM on November 7, 2023 [5 favorites]
posted by tofu_crouton at 9:36 AM on November 7, 2023 [5 favorites]
the best short explanation I've come across for what happened during Covid was. "Our culture got a stress test. We failed the test."
This is absolutely my feeling too. All I can do is continue to getting a Covid vaccine shot when needed, continue my flu shot every year, mask up in crowded places, and hope for the best. If the Powers that Be don't care about this current virus, they won't care about future ones, so it's every person for themselves.
Good luck out there.
posted by Kitteh at 9:38 AM on November 7, 2023 [4 favorites]
This is absolutely my feeling too. All I can do is continue to getting a Covid vaccine shot when needed, continue my flu shot every year, mask up in crowded places, and hope for the best. If the Powers that Be don't care about this current virus, they won't care about future ones, so it's every person for themselves.
Good luck out there.
posted by Kitteh at 9:38 AM on November 7, 2023 [4 favorites]
My memory, fwiw, is that a significant number of people assumed it would prevent transmission, due entirely to their own assumptions and not media,
That's what I remember too, and led to people saying, even now, "the vaccines are worthless because they don't stop you from getting covid," which is so not the point or how vaccines have ever worked. People do not understand vaccines, even with all the info desperately shared by health info messengers.
posted by tiny frying pan at 9:42 AM on November 7, 2023 [3 favorites]
That's what I remember too, and led to people saying, even now, "the vaccines are worthless because they don't stop you from getting covid," which is so not the point or how vaccines have ever worked. People do not understand vaccines, even with all the info desperately shared by health info messengers.
posted by tiny frying pan at 9:42 AM on November 7, 2023 [3 favorites]
My memory, fwiw, is that a significant number of people assumed it would prevent transmission, due entirely to their own assumptions and not media
If you read the article I posted above you'll see that it came as a surprise to even experts in the field that vaxxed people could transmit the virus. It wasn't just a bunch of Brucie Assumalots taking partial info and running with it. This is what I'm talking about re: erasing the fact of our early ignorance.
The good thing is that now there is a much deeper and wider understanding of vaccines, how they work, their limitations, etc.
posted by grumpybear69 at 10:08 AM on November 7, 2023 [4 favorites]
If you read the article I posted above you'll see that it came as a surprise to even experts in the field that vaxxed people could transmit the virus. It wasn't just a bunch of Brucie Assumalots taking partial info and running with it. This is what I'm talking about re: erasing the fact of our early ignorance.
The good thing is that now there is a much deeper and wider understanding of vaccines, how they work, their limitations, etc.
posted by grumpybear69 at 10:08 AM on November 7, 2023 [4 favorites]
Metafilter magic gave me a time capsule adjacent to this post, about the later phase of another pandemic. It’s interesting to see the tensions there in how to manage comms around a still-pandemic disease in wealthy America when many people reasonably expect to survive it. (Obligatory note that SARS-CoV-2 is not HIV.)
posted by eirias at 11:13 AM on November 7, 2023
posted by eirias at 11:13 AM on November 7, 2023
My memory, fwiw, is that a significant number of people assumed it would prevent transmission, due entirely to their own assumptions and not media
This is really typical of how things were being reported in spring of 2021:
Headline: Can Vaccinated People Spread the Virus? We Don’t Know, Scientists Say.
Researchers pushed back after the C.D.C. director asserted that vaccinated people “do not carry the virus.”
People getting those ideas were getting them from more than just their own assumptions, even though the actual reporting (like in this article) was often more nuanced.
posted by Dip Flash at 11:36 AM on November 7, 2023 [8 favorites]
This is really typical of how things were being reported in spring of 2021:
Headline: Can Vaccinated People Spread the Virus? We Don’t Know, Scientists Say.
Researchers pushed back after the C.D.C. director asserted that vaccinated people “do not carry the virus.”
People getting those ideas were getting them from more than just their own assumptions, even though the actual reporting (like in this article) was often more nuanced.
posted by Dip Flash at 11:36 AM on November 7, 2023 [8 favorites]
Also, not that it matters except to prove that I am not remembering something fictitious, here's a link to an article that has the "when will we reach herd immunity?" interactive graphics.
Note the key assumption midway through the article: "And the model comes with some other caveats. Much is still unknown about how long immunity from vaccines will last, or how well the vaccines will protect against new variants of the virus. The estimates also assume that the vaccine prevents infection rather than just reducing the severity of coronavirus symptoms." (emphasis added)
And, the article correctly notes towards the end that the introduction of new variants throws the whole thing out the window, which is of course what happened.
posted by Dip Flash at 11:49 AM on November 7, 2023 [6 favorites]
Note the key assumption midway through the article: "And the model comes with some other caveats. Much is still unknown about how long immunity from vaccines will last, or how well the vaccines will protect against new variants of the virus. The estimates also assume that the vaccine prevents infection rather than just reducing the severity of coronavirus symptoms." (emphasis added)
And, the article correctly notes towards the end that the introduction of new variants throws the whole thing out the window, which is of course what happened.
posted by Dip Flash at 11:49 AM on November 7, 2023 [6 favorites]
US martial arts academies had to apply for PPP loans. They were not easy to get but also - they were loans. Some of those places have gone out of business since, because of the debt load.
Popping down to the end of the thread to say that as a self-employed/business owner I got 2 ppp loans, applying for them and getting them forgiven was easy as pie. Actually shockingly easy. I was almost offended at how easy it was.
posted by bq at 12:34 PM on November 7, 2023 [2 favorites]
Popping down to the end of the thread to say that as a self-employed/business owner I got 2 ppp loans, applying for them and getting them forgiven was easy as pie. Actually shockingly easy. I was almost offended at how easy it was.
posted by bq at 12:34 PM on November 7, 2023 [2 favorites]
I found it ridiculous that suddenly we were all to "understand" that vaccines didn't really do much of anything. My whole life, I get a flu shot, I don't get flu. I get vaxxed for polio, guess what, I never got polio. You get vaxxed for covid, guess what, you'll still get covid for the rest of your life. *record scratch* Whaaaaaaaat?
Finally my obsessive consumption of science podcasts is about to pay off.
WRONG!
You DID get the flu. You just thought it was a cold because you got over it in 2 days. If you got your regular flu vaccine then you will never know whether the cold you got in January was the flu or a regular old rhinovirus unless you got tested by your doctor’s office. The flu vaccine did its job and kept you out of the hospital. Twice in my life I have had to get flu tests due to ‘a cold’ because I had immune compromised people in my life and both times it was flu.
You may very well DID get polio, especially if you lived in the New York City area or many European cities were polio in ENDEMIC as is attested by wastewater testing. Polio vaccines DO NOT PROTECT YOU FROM GETTING POLIO. They protect you from becoming PARALYZED. Polio infections are 99% nonsymptomatic or manifest as a simply stomach bug that might cause diarrhea. Only one in 200 cases will result in any paralysis. In fact, many many countries use a live polio virus vaccine that can itself be transmissible and cause paralysis, and it’s this version of the virus that circulates in many areas.
I finally got COVID this summer. My throat hurt for a few days. I didn’t go to the hospital or die. Because my vaccines did their job.
posted by bq at 12:49 PM on November 7, 2023 [13 favorites]
Finally my obsessive consumption of science podcasts is about to pay off.
WRONG!
You DID get the flu. You just thought it was a cold because you got over it in 2 days. If you got your regular flu vaccine then you will never know whether the cold you got in January was the flu or a regular old rhinovirus unless you got tested by your doctor’s office. The flu vaccine did its job and kept you out of the hospital. Twice in my life I have had to get flu tests due to ‘a cold’ because I had immune compromised people in my life and both times it was flu.
You may very well DID get polio, especially if you lived in the New York City area or many European cities were polio in ENDEMIC as is attested by wastewater testing. Polio vaccines DO NOT PROTECT YOU FROM GETTING POLIO. They protect you from becoming PARALYZED. Polio infections are 99% nonsymptomatic or manifest as a simply stomach bug that might cause diarrhea. Only one in 200 cases will result in any paralysis. In fact, many many countries use a live polio virus vaccine that can itself be transmissible and cause paralysis, and it’s this version of the virus that circulates in many areas.
I finally got COVID this summer. My throat hurt for a few days. I didn’t go to the hospital or die. Because my vaccines did their job.
posted by bq at 12:49 PM on November 7, 2023 [13 favorites]
Public health comms is really hard, .... It's much harder when there are active disinformation operation
i_am_joe's_spleen:
That's true. It's been a concern for quite some time.
Event 201 was pandemic wargaming exercise held October 18, 2019.
Event 201 simulates an outbreak of a novel zoonotic coronavirus ,, that eventually becomes efficiently transmissible from person to person, leading to a severe pandemic. The pathogen and the disease it causes are modeled largely on SARS, but it is more transmissible in the community setting by people with mild symptoms. There is no possibility of a vaccine being available in the first year
Part of what was presented was COMMUNICATION IN A PANDEMIC
true information about public health concerns is increasingly
competing with false messages that can damage public confidence in health interventions and health authorities.
In the fall of 2018, a team of researchers systematically identified a concerted effort to spread disinformation and discord about vaccine safety.
That paper is titled Weaponized health communication:
Using a set of 1 793 690 tweets collected from July 14, 2014, through September 26, 2017, we quantified the impact of known and suspected Twitter bots and trolls on amplifying polarizing and antivaccine messages.
health communications have become “weaponized”: public health issues, such as vaccination, are included in attempts to spread misinformation and disinformation by foreign powers. In addition, .. A full 93% of tweets about vaccines ..exhibit malicious behaviors. These unidentified accounts preferentially tweet antivaccine misinformation.
posted by yyz at 12:50 PM on November 7, 2023 [7 favorites]
...known and suspected Twitter bots and trolls on amplifying polarizing and antivaccine messages.
So: Russia, then.
posted by wenestvedt at 12:56 PM on November 7, 2023 [2 favorites]
So: Russia, then.
posted by wenestvedt at 12:56 PM on November 7, 2023 [2 favorites]
That CDC link says it is from 2021. The most recent polio case in the NYC area is from 2022 in Rockland County.
These environmental findings provide evidence that the unvaccinated individual Rockland County resident with paralytic polio contracted the virus through local—not abroad or international—transmission and provide evidence of expanding community spread. This underscores the urgency of every adult and child, particularly those where poliovirus has been identified, getting immunized and staying up to date with their polio immunization schedule.
New Yorkers should know that these environmental findings do not indicate that the individual in Rockland County was the source of the transmission, and case investigation into the origin of the virus is ongoing.
posted by bq at 2:00 PM on November 7, 2023
These environmental findings provide evidence that the unvaccinated individual Rockland County resident with paralytic polio contracted the virus through local—not abroad or international—transmission and provide evidence of expanding community spread. This underscores the urgency of every adult and child, particularly those where poliovirus has been identified, getting immunized and staying up to date with their polio immunization schedule.
New Yorkers should know that these environmental findings do not indicate that the individual in Rockland County was the source of the transmission, and case investigation into the origin of the virus is ongoing.
posted by bq at 2:00 PM on November 7, 2023
Yes, but local transmission does not mean a virus is endemic, good heavens. It’s worrisome, it was newsworthy, but that is not the same thing as endemic.
posted by eirias at 2:03 PM on November 7, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by eirias at 2:03 PM on November 7, 2023 [1 favorite]
And so as not to abuse the edit window — more to the point, that CDC link should remind us that through vaccination, we eliminated local transmission of polio in the Western hemisphere until that notable case in 2022. Eradication was believed to be a possibility. That is a different situation from the Covid vaccines, which have been less effective (not worthless) at reducing transmission. People are not scientifically illiterate because they had expectations that this particular vaccine and this particular virus did not meet.
posted by eirias at 2:06 PM on November 7, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by eirias at 2:06 PM on November 7, 2023 [4 favorites]
Here’s my least favorite math problem.
1) polio vaccination prevents paralysis but not transmission of polio (most cases of polio are now from vaccine derived strains)
2) only 1 in 2,000 cases of polio result in paralysis
3) Rockland County has about 60% polio vaccination rate
Question: if 1 person in Rockland County was paralyzed in the summer of 2022, how many people had polio in the summer of 2022 and didn’t realize it?
Wastewater results for summer 2023 looked pretty good but I have a hard time believing them given the numbers in Europe.
posted by bq at 2:14 PM on November 7, 2023 [2 favorites]
1) polio vaccination prevents paralysis but not transmission of polio (most cases of polio are now from vaccine derived strains)
2) only 1 in 2,000 cases of polio result in paralysis
3) Rockland County has about 60% polio vaccination rate
Question: if 1 person in Rockland County was paralyzed in the summer of 2022, how many people had polio in the summer of 2022 and didn’t realize it?
Wastewater results for summer 2023 looked pretty good but I have a hard time believing them given the numbers in Europe.
posted by bq at 2:14 PM on November 7, 2023 [2 favorites]
Vox’s 2020 reporting on PPP loans.
I didn’t realize until reading that piece just now how short a period that was. We were subsidized for wages (gradually decreasing percentages) for 21 4-week periods (so about 20 months).
posted by warriorqueen at 4:13 PM on November 7, 2023 [4 favorites]
I didn’t realize until reading that piece just now how short a period that was. We were subsidized for wages (gradually decreasing percentages) for 21 4-week periods (so about 20 months).
posted by warriorqueen at 4:13 PM on November 7, 2023 [4 favorites]
1) entirely disband Fox
2) force the entire Republican party into reeducation informing them that other people exist and that is ok. That tolerance is not submitting to Satan.
2b) include some media literacy
3) hope and pray those newly educated people stop acting like crabs in a bucket on fire and start caring for the world, their neighbors, and those weird people in the big cities
posted by Jacen at 5:51 PM on November 7, 2023 [3 favorites]
2) force the entire Republican party into reeducation informing them that other people exist and that is ok. That tolerance is not submitting to Satan.
2b) include some media literacy
3) hope and pray those newly educated people stop acting like crabs in a bucket on fire and start caring for the world, their neighbors, and those weird people in the big cities
posted by Jacen at 5:51 PM on November 7, 2023 [3 favorites]
I'm reading the book excerpt at the Amazon listing, and getting even more annoyed: "One reason for that lack of urgency was that most pathogens in recent years had largely bypassed the United States. For instance, about eleven thousand people had died during the 2014 Ebola outbreak, but only four cases occurred in the United States."
The Obama Administration's response to the 2014 outbreak is why only four cases occurred in the US. In January 2017, Obama officials briefed Trump's team on dealing with a pandemic like the coronavirus. One incoming Cabinet member [Wilbur Ross] reportedly fell asleep, and others didn't want to be there. Obama aides wrote detailed transition papers, which were ignored. On May 4, 2017, Time Magazine's cover story, "The World Is Not Ready for the Next Pandemic," recounted the Trump administration's missteps to date.
In March 2020, "Susan Rice, Obama’s national security adviser, blasted Trump for comments such as 'you can never really think' that a pandemic like the coronavirus 'is going to happen.' She mentioned the 2017 session as one of many instances of the Obama administration’s efforts to help its successor be ready for such a challenge. She also slammed the Trump team for dismantling the National Security Council section that would play a lead role in organizing the U.S. response to a global pandemic." [...] In April 2020, Jared Kushner dropped by a coronavirus task force meeting (a task force headed by Mike Pence, of all people), to announce the federal stockpile of medical supplies was suddenly NOT open to state need; the next day, the Trump administration edited the national stockpile website to conform to Kushner's policy. The USA's pandemic response was doomed because of the lying, thieving, dim-witted, utterly corrupt people then in power.
posted by Iris Gambol at 8:24 PM on November 7, 2023 [15 favorites]
The Obama Administration's response to the 2014 outbreak is why only four cases occurred in the US. In January 2017, Obama officials briefed Trump's team on dealing with a pandemic like the coronavirus. One incoming Cabinet member [Wilbur Ross] reportedly fell asleep, and others didn't want to be there. Obama aides wrote detailed transition papers, which were ignored. On May 4, 2017, Time Magazine's cover story, "The World Is Not Ready for the Next Pandemic," recounted the Trump administration's missteps to date.
In March 2020, "Susan Rice, Obama’s national security adviser, blasted Trump for comments such as 'you can never really think' that a pandemic like the coronavirus 'is going to happen.' She mentioned the 2017 session as one of many instances of the Obama administration’s efforts to help its successor be ready for such a challenge. She also slammed the Trump team for dismantling the National Security Council section that would play a lead role in organizing the U.S. response to a global pandemic." [...] In April 2020, Jared Kushner dropped by a coronavirus task force meeting (a task force headed by Mike Pence, of all people), to announce the federal stockpile of medical supplies was suddenly NOT open to state need; the next day, the Trump administration edited the national stockpile website to conform to Kushner's policy. The USA's pandemic response was doomed because of the lying, thieving, dim-witted, utterly corrupt people then in power.
posted by Iris Gambol at 8:24 PM on November 7, 2023 [15 favorites]
So pleased jackbishop added in the example of Vietnam - that sotto voce "communist" regime.
Reuters and The Guardian were both running fabulous statistical analysis on infections/deaths/vaccinations
posted by Barbara Spitzer at 1:09 AM on November 8, 2023 [4 favorites]
Reuters and The Guardian were both running fabulous statistical analysis on infections/deaths/vaccinations
posted by Barbara Spitzer at 1:09 AM on November 8, 2023 [4 favorites]
We've been hammering Michael Lewis in the SBF threads (and justifiably so!), but his previous book was about the people who did a lot of the work to get COVID-19 response rolling in the U.S. Published in 2021, it is called "Premonition: A Pandemic Story" and it discusses both the national-level staffers who did their best, as well as state-level officials.
I thought it was a good book. My aunt worked in public health so I know it's a mostly-hidden field, but I hadn't appreciated just how much frantic work was going on while Trump's people bullshitted about bleach and horse medicine and such. Here's an awkward pop-up window from the publisher's web site where you can read the introduction and first parts, which you can navigate using the tiny buttons in the upper-right corner: https://wwnorton.com/static/iframe.html?isbn=0393881563
(NPR's review emphasizes just how much he comes down on the CDC -- and that was just a year into it!)
posted by wenestvedt at 7:11 AM on November 8, 2023 [6 favorites]
I thought it was a good book. My aunt worked in public health so I know it's a mostly-hidden field, but I hadn't appreciated just how much frantic work was going on while Trump's people bullshitted about bleach and horse medicine and such. Here's an awkward pop-up window from the publisher's web site where you can read the introduction and first parts, which you can navigate using the tiny buttons in the upper-right corner: https://wwnorton.com/static/iframe.html?isbn=0393881563
(NPR's review emphasizes just how much he comes down on the CDC -- and that was just a year into it!)
posted by wenestvedt at 7:11 AM on November 8, 2023 [6 favorites]
The original article mentioned the impact of COVID isolation on students, but didn't mention the impact on daycare students. When my younger daughter was attending a YMCA facility daycare and when I had attended a parent-daycare meeting, the CEO from my local YMCA was admitting that they were having a early childcare staff shortage that was common to all facility daycares, and common across all off Canada. The wages for early childcare educators were low and they were being poached by schools that could pay their educational assistants more than the the daycares could pay. But the CEO also mentioned that staff were quitting because they weren't finding it rewarding to be working during COVID restrictions as instead of working with kids, they had to spend a lot more time doing cleaning tasks. This was coupled with the mask policy that was in effect at daycare.
My younger daughter's speech therapist and the school board, which she will attend and that my older daughter attends, are well aware that there is a doubled cohort that will be arriving in schools this year and next year as they age into kindergarden [1], [2] [3].
So if you were two working parents that were placing your child into daycare, because both parents were working a majority of the time, they were forming attachments to daycare staff to learn, but the staff had so frequent turnover, that there wasn't many relationships being formed between the children and the staff. And because the adults were wearing masks, visual lip reading was being robbed from them.
The article also didn't mention that we took on a lot of debt to fund the COVID era restrictions, which I strongly believe is linked to the inflation we're seeing now across first world economies, as we're secretly printing money to try to erase the debt. The assumption is that COVID was a once in a 100 year event. What happens if another pandemic arrives in 25 years or 50 years? Are democracies able to handle the debt they took on persistently? Keynes said that nations should deficit spend in recessions and tax people harder in economic boom times to smooth out the effects of economic cycles. Except nations are forgetting the second part.
I have mentioned before that benefits of the COVID policies appeared to benefit older people the most. COVID tended to have a higher mortality rate among old people. We're not using progressive income taxes to try to collect on the economic debts, but it appears we're trying to inflate away the COVID debt created. So young and old generations are both being imposed by the debt repayment, but the supports for Gen Alpha will be nonexistent.
posted by DetriusXii at 8:26 PM on November 8, 2023
My younger daughter's speech therapist and the school board, which she will attend and that my older daughter attends, are well aware that there is a doubled cohort that will be arriving in schools this year and next year as they age into kindergarden [1], [2] [3].
So if you were two working parents that were placing your child into daycare, because both parents were working a majority of the time, they were forming attachments to daycare staff to learn, but the staff had so frequent turnover, that there wasn't many relationships being formed between the children and the staff. And because the adults were wearing masks, visual lip reading was being robbed from them.
The article also didn't mention that we took on a lot of debt to fund the COVID era restrictions, which I strongly believe is linked to the inflation we're seeing now across first world economies, as we're secretly printing money to try to erase the debt. The assumption is that COVID was a once in a 100 year event. What happens if another pandemic arrives in 25 years or 50 years? Are democracies able to handle the debt they took on persistently? Keynes said that nations should deficit spend in recessions and tax people harder in economic boom times to smooth out the effects of economic cycles. Except nations are forgetting the second part.
I have mentioned before that benefits of the COVID policies appeared to benefit older people the most. COVID tended to have a higher mortality rate among old people. We're not using progressive income taxes to try to collect on the economic debts, but it appears we're trying to inflate away the COVID debt created. So young and old generations are both being imposed by the debt repayment, but the supports for Gen Alpha will be nonexistent.
posted by DetriusXii at 8:26 PM on November 8, 2023
as we're secretly printing money to try to erase the debt
This is getting into conspiracy theory territory.
posted by eviemath at 6:31 AM on November 9, 2023 [6 favorites]
This is getting into conspiracy theory territory.
posted by eviemath at 6:31 AM on November 9, 2023 [6 favorites]
So a friend of mine who has perpetual medical problems informed me that when she asked some medical professional about covid--I note this is a very High Class Hospital With Good Reputation that she has to go to, you've heard of it--she said she was told, "We're not allowed to talk about it any more." Da fuck?!?!
posted by jenfullmoon at 9:54 AM on November 9, 2023
posted by jenfullmoon at 9:54 AM on November 9, 2023
It is so easy to forget that, at the beginning of the pandemic, nobody had a clue what was going on and all of the institutional knowledge re: how to contain a global pandemic had turned to dust. Everything was improvisation.
The merits of their lockdown strategy notwithstanding, the Chinese actually gave us a pretty accurate profile of the disease before it really hit: transmits asymptomatically and before people feel sick; mild in children; very serious threat to the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions...
The big thing they got wrong from what I read was the advice to put people on ventilators right away, which tended to do more harm than good.
Nevertheless, I understand the lockdowns and other measures as US public health officials got a handle on just wtf was going on, especially after the health system in one Italian region got overrun (it turns an ill considered privitization may have played a role in that as well).
Still
1) We were never going to be eradicate SARS-COV 2. There was no global consensus to do so, the virus spread readily amongst several populations of mammals which gave it an animal resevior from which it could spread back to human populations, and it its unlikely that every coutry could simply simply transition to remote work like in the West and East Asia to sustain lock downs for a prolonged period of time.
2) Given that, we should have been psychologically preparaing people to live with the virus once the vaccine was available to everyone. The vaccines saved lives and reduced hospital burdens, but the back and forth messsaging and outright lying regarding the possibility that the vaccines could suppress transmission enough to eradicate the disease dangerously undermined puplic faith both in the COVID vaccines and vaccination itself, which is a disaster. RFK Jr. is pollig at 92 Perot levels in some states now ....
3) I can't say I'm surprised that the idea for lockdowns in the US arose during the Bush II administration, the same administration that embraced the idea of the "noble lie" to get us into Iraq (uranium yellow cake anyone?). The constant stream of color coded COVID alert systems from the CDC did bring to mind the colored "terror alert" system the Bush admin. tried to implement following 9/11 .....
4) Medical interventions always have costs and risks as well as benefits. The idea is that the predicted benefits outweigh the risks and costs. That is part of the reason why medical professionals have to obtain consent from patients prior to administering medical procedures. Similar ethical ideas govern medical research, which is why we have institutional review boards. Obviously some allowances can be made during the initial stages in an emergency, but eventually similar ideas should guide public health officials. It never should be okay to lie....
posted by eagles123 at 7:59 PM on November 9, 2023 [1 favorite]
The merits of their lockdown strategy notwithstanding, the Chinese actually gave us a pretty accurate profile of the disease before it really hit: transmits asymptomatically and before people feel sick; mild in children; very serious threat to the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions...
The big thing they got wrong from what I read was the advice to put people on ventilators right away, which tended to do more harm than good.
Nevertheless, I understand the lockdowns and other measures as US public health officials got a handle on just wtf was going on, especially after the health system in one Italian region got overrun (it turns an ill considered privitization may have played a role in that as well).
Still
1) We were never going to be eradicate SARS-COV 2. There was no global consensus to do so, the virus spread readily amongst several populations of mammals which gave it an animal resevior from which it could spread back to human populations, and it its unlikely that every coutry could simply simply transition to remote work like in the West and East Asia to sustain lock downs for a prolonged period of time.
2) Given that, we should have been psychologically preparaing people to live with the virus once the vaccine was available to everyone. The vaccines saved lives and reduced hospital burdens, but the back and forth messsaging and outright lying regarding the possibility that the vaccines could suppress transmission enough to eradicate the disease dangerously undermined puplic faith both in the COVID vaccines and vaccination itself, which is a disaster. RFK Jr. is pollig at 92 Perot levels in some states now ....
3) I can't say I'm surprised that the idea for lockdowns in the US arose during the Bush II administration, the same administration that embraced the idea of the "noble lie" to get us into Iraq (uranium yellow cake anyone?). The constant stream of color coded COVID alert systems from the CDC did bring to mind the colored "terror alert" system the Bush admin. tried to implement following 9/11 .....
4) Medical interventions always have costs and risks as well as benefits. The idea is that the predicted benefits outweigh the risks and costs. That is part of the reason why medical professionals have to obtain consent from patients prior to administering medical procedures. Similar ethical ideas govern medical research, which is why we have institutional review boards. Obviously some allowances can be made during the initial stages in an emergency, but eventually similar ideas should guide public health officials. It never should be okay to lie....
posted by eagles123 at 7:59 PM on November 9, 2023 [1 favorite]
We were never going to be eradicate SARS-COV 2. There was no global consensus to do so
This was absolutely not true initially. All of the epidemiologists I followed were at least initially positive about the possibility of containing it, only changing their expectations once the US clearly became a huge shitshow.
the virus spread readily amongst several populations of mammals which gave it an animal resevior from which it could spread back to human populations
This is a huge overstatement, and needs some strong evidence to support such a claim. Lots of viruses that are transmissible to and among humans have a different animal reservoir, but do not become pandemics (just have periodic local breakouts). And while SARS-CoV2 was documented as being transmitted from humans to some other animals, last I saw that was at quite a low rate(*) (there was just so much of it around in humans), and transmission back to humans was negligible.
(* Look, I’m still pretty careful about not exposing my senior, unvaccinated (because they didn’t make non-human vaccines) cat with heart disease, kidney disease, and thyroid disease to COVID. But I’m also careful about not exposing him to anything he could catch, ‘cause basically anything would be an issue given his age and comorbidities. In general, it’s not that high of a risk.)
its unlikely that every coutry could simply simply transition to remote work like in the West and East Asia
See the couple of comments from other posters above about Vietnam’s COVID response measures and how effective they were even considering economic constraints.
posted by eviemath at 12:16 AM on November 10, 2023 [1 favorite]
This was absolutely not true initially. All of the epidemiologists I followed were at least initially positive about the possibility of containing it, only changing their expectations once the US clearly became a huge shitshow.
the virus spread readily amongst several populations of mammals which gave it an animal resevior from which it could spread back to human populations
This is a huge overstatement, and needs some strong evidence to support such a claim. Lots of viruses that are transmissible to and among humans have a different animal reservoir, but do not become pandemics (just have periodic local breakouts). And while SARS-CoV2 was documented as being transmitted from humans to some other animals, last I saw that was at quite a low rate(*) (there was just so much of it around in humans), and transmission back to humans was negligible.
(* Look, I’m still pretty careful about not exposing my senior, unvaccinated (because they didn’t make non-human vaccines) cat with heart disease, kidney disease, and thyroid disease to COVID. But I’m also careful about not exposing him to anything he could catch, ‘cause basically anything would be an issue given his age and comorbidities. In general, it’s not that high of a risk.)
its unlikely that every coutry could simply simply transition to remote work like in the West and East Asia
See the couple of comments from other posters above about Vietnam’s COVID response measures and how effective they were even considering economic constraints.
posted by eviemath at 12:16 AM on November 10, 2023 [1 favorite]
This was absolutely not true initially. All of the epidemiologists I followed were at least initially positive about the possibility of containing it, only changing their expectations once the US clearly became a huge shitshow.
I'm all about dogging on the US response because I had to live through it, but blaming the world-wide spread of the virus and lack of containment on the US is seriously overstating the role of the US. I'm personally of the opinion that once the first infected people were catching airplanes out of China that there was zero realistic hope of containment, but even if I'm wrong, it would have taken a large number of countries doing things perfectly, all at the same time.
posted by Dip Flash at 5:53 AM on November 10, 2023 [4 favorites]
I'm all about dogging on the US response because I had to live through it, but blaming the world-wide spread of the virus and lack of containment on the US is seriously overstating the role of the US. I'm personally of the opinion that once the first infected people were catching airplanes out of China that there was zero realistic hope of containment, but even if I'm wrong, it would have taken a large number of countries doing things perfectly, all at the same time.
posted by Dip Flash at 5:53 AM on November 10, 2023 [4 favorites]
In 2003-2004, SARS-CoV-1 spread to 29 countries beyond China. A very similar virus to SARS-CoV-2,
posted by eviemath at 6:31 AM on November 10, 2023 [2 favorites]
”Not a single case of the severe acute Respiratory syndrome has been reported this year [2005] or in late 2004. It is the first winter without a case since the initial outbreak in late 2002. In addition, the epidemic strain of SARS that caused at least 774 deaths worldwide by June 2003 has not been seen outside of a laboratory since then."This despite it also being of zoonotic origin, with a non-human animal reservoir, and despite China’s early response and the early timeline being fairly similar to that of SARS-CoV-2:
The outbreak was first identified in Foshan, Guangdong, China, in November 2002.[2] The World Health Organization (WHO) was notified of the outbreak in February 2003, and issued a global alert in March 2003.And yeah, the US was not solely responsible for the global failure to contain SARS-CoV-2, but it was a key player, and I follow epidemiologists in North America and Commonwealth countries, so it’s the key player who the ones I follow were focused on as why we weren’t able to restrict SARS-CoV-2 to more contained regions. Eg. the US response is the main reason why Canada’s containment failed, even though my region of Canada had locally eliminated the virus multiple times during the first year of the pandemic. (While, eg., Russia’s similarly poor response was likely more impactful for Mongolia, where they also had early success in eliminating the virus.)
…
Early in the epidemic, the Chinese government discouraged its press from reporting on SARS, delayed reporting to WHO, and initially did not provide information to Chinese outside Guangdong province, where the disease is believed to have originated.[20] Also, a WHO team that travelled to Beijing was not allowed to visit Guangdong province for several weeks.
posted by eviemath at 6:31 AM on November 10, 2023 [2 favorites]
(But it wasn’t Russian political pressure (unless you count internet disinformation), dumb spats with China, or lack of funding that kept the WHO from being able to do its job adequately.)
posted by eviemath at 6:45 AM on November 10, 2023
posted by eviemath at 6:45 AM on November 10, 2023
SARS-COV-1 was always going to be easier to contain than SARS-CoV-2 because it was more severe (6-8% mortality rate) and had a shorter incubation period (2 to 8 days as opposed to 2-10). It’s also not clear whether pre symptomatic transmission was happening, when now it’s very clear that presymptomatic transmission was a big factor in spread of COVID-19. They’re not comparable.
posted by bq at 7:43 AM on November 10, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by bq at 7:43 AM on November 10, 2023 [2 favorites]
SARS-COV-1 was always going to be easier to contain than SARS-CoV-2 because it was more severe (6-8% mortality rate)
The lower mortality rate of SARS-CoV-2 didn't make it harder to contain, it just made those making the decisions less willing to make the decisions necessary to contain it. That's on humans, not the virus. Of course, if SARS-1 showed up today, I think the US and maybe the UK would let it rip for political reasons until hospitals completely collapsed, at which point it might be too late.
I don't think this speaks either way as to whether either virus was containable, but fundamentally Toronto was just lucky with SARS-1. Health authorities were very late to act and it could easily have been so much worse.
posted by ssg at 8:57 AM on November 10, 2023 [3 favorites]
The lower mortality rate of SARS-CoV-2 didn't make it harder to contain, it just made those making the decisions less willing to make the decisions necessary to contain it. That's on humans, not the virus. Of course, if SARS-1 showed up today, I think the US and maybe the UK would let it rip for political reasons until hospitals completely collapsed, at which point it might be too late.
I don't think this speaks either way as to whether either virus was containable, but fundamentally Toronto was just lucky with SARS-1. Health authorities were very late to act and it could easily have been so much worse.
posted by ssg at 8:57 AM on November 10, 2023 [3 favorites]
The lower mortality rate of SARS-CoV-2 didn't make it harder to contain
I wasn't as precise in my language as I should have been. By 'more severe' I meant not just the higher mortality rate but the more acute severity of symptoms. With COVID-19 it was common for people to have very mild easily ignored symptoms. My impression after reading papers about SARS-CoV-1 is that this was less frequent.
posted by bq at 10:14 AM on November 10, 2023
I wasn't as precise in my language as I should have been. By 'more severe' I meant not just the higher mortality rate but the more acute severity of symptoms. With COVID-19 it was common for people to have very mild easily ignored symptoms. My impression after reading papers about SARS-CoV-1 is that this was less frequent.
posted by bq at 10:14 AM on November 10, 2023
In 2003-2004, SARS-CoV-1 spread to 29 countries beyond China. A very similar virus to SARS-CoV-2,
Article comparing SARS 2003 to SARS COV 2
I'll quote the relevant section:
WHO estimates of the basic reproductive number (R0) for SARS-CoV-2 range from 1.4 to 6.9 with a mean of 3.28, while the R0 estimates for SARS-CoV-1 range from 2 to 4 [34], [39]. However, the R0 estimates of both viruses are not reflective of the difficulty in controlling the spread of each virus. Patients with SARS were maximally infectious during the second week of illness, whereas COVID-19 patients are most infectious in the pre-symptomatic and early symptomatic phase of illness. The control of SARS-CoV-2 is further complicated by a population of infectious individuals who are asymptomatic at the time of transmission, both from pre-symptomatic individuals and individuals who remain asymptomatic throughout the course of infection. As a result, significantly greater effort has been required to reduce the effective reproductive number (Re) of SARS-CoV-2 compared to SARS-CoV-1 [34], [40], [41].
Pay particular attention to the bolded. Patients with SARS were most likely to spread the virus to others after they already were experiencing symptoms. In contrast, SARS COV 2 patients transmitted the virus prior to experiencing symptoms, and some even transmitted the virus despite remaining asymptomatic.
Thus, SARS COV 2 was much harder to contain than SARS COV 1.
And, although I also remember many epidemiodiologts speculating we could eradicate the disease up until the Provincetown "outbreak" amongst vaccinated individuals, I also remember speculation on TWIV that SARS COV 2 was going to end up a childhood disease like the other Coronoviruses already circulating in humans - which is what happened.
Personally, I think there was a lot of self-sensorship going on, particular in Anglophone countries where the disease response became caught up with ongoing political/cultural conflicts. I also get the sense that the models used to calculate "herd immunity" weren't well understood, or at least well validated, even within medical fields because up until the SARS COV 2 pandemic they'd only been used to calculate the proportion of a population that needed to vaccinated to eradicate a disease. I don't think they'd ever been tested with an emerging virus.
posted by eagles123 at 7:19 PM on November 10, 2023 [1 favorite]
Article comparing SARS 2003 to SARS COV 2
I'll quote the relevant section:
WHO estimates of the basic reproductive number (R0) for SARS-CoV-2 range from 1.4 to 6.9 with a mean of 3.28, while the R0 estimates for SARS-CoV-1 range from 2 to 4 [34], [39]. However, the R0 estimates of both viruses are not reflective of the difficulty in controlling the spread of each virus. Patients with SARS were maximally infectious during the second week of illness, whereas COVID-19 patients are most infectious in the pre-symptomatic and early symptomatic phase of illness. The control of SARS-CoV-2 is further complicated by a population of infectious individuals who are asymptomatic at the time of transmission, both from pre-symptomatic individuals and individuals who remain asymptomatic throughout the course of infection. As a result, significantly greater effort has been required to reduce the effective reproductive number (Re) of SARS-CoV-2 compared to SARS-CoV-1 [34], [40], [41].
Pay particular attention to the bolded. Patients with SARS were most likely to spread the virus to others after they already were experiencing symptoms. In contrast, SARS COV 2 patients transmitted the virus prior to experiencing symptoms, and some even transmitted the virus despite remaining asymptomatic.
Thus, SARS COV 2 was much harder to contain than SARS COV 1.
And, although I also remember many epidemiodiologts speculating we could eradicate the disease up until the Provincetown "outbreak" amongst vaccinated individuals, I also remember speculation on TWIV that SARS COV 2 was going to end up a childhood disease like the other Coronoviruses already circulating in humans - which is what happened.
Personally, I think there was a lot of self-sensorship going on, particular in Anglophone countries where the disease response became caught up with ongoing political/cultural conflicts. I also get the sense that the models used to calculate "herd immunity" weren't well understood, or at least well validated, even within medical fields because up until the SARS COV 2 pandemic they'd only been used to calculate the proportion of a population that needed to vaccinated to eradicate a disease. I don't think they'd ever been tested with an emerging virus.
posted by eagles123 at 7:19 PM on November 10, 2023 [1 favorite]
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