American Fascism
November 15, 2023 8:35 AM Subscribe
Behind the Curtain: Trump allies pre-screen loyalists for unprecedented power grab - "Hundreds of people are spending tens of millions of dollars to install a pre-vetted, pro-Trump army of up to 54,000 loyalists across government to rip off the restraints imposed on the previous 46 presidents." (previously)
Sweeping Raids, Giant Camps and Mass Deportations: Inside Trump's 2025 Immigration Plans [ungated] - "If he regains power, Donald Trump wants not only to revive some of the immigration policies criticized as draconian during his presidency, but expand and toughen them."[2]
also btw...
Peter Thiel Is Taking a Break From Democracy [ungated] - "It's one of his many, many disappointments."[3]
Trump insiders relish rebuilding the team with purists. But the truth is, they have no choice: Many more-traditional Republicans quit the first administration in frustration or were fired by tweet. And some former advisers are talking to prosecutors or are charged with crimes...Trump's plan for giant detention camps points to a brutal 2024 reality [ungated] - "Trump and Stephen Miller are making an ugly bet on public opinon about immigration."[1]
He's telling us exactly what he intends to do — like it or loathe it. And this time, he'll have prefabbed institutional muscle to turn pugilistic words into policies and action from the get-go.
Here's what the early days of a second Trump presidency would look like, based on his words and our conversations with Trump insiders:The bottom line: This Trump-allied machine has the most power over the formation of a potential future government of any group in U.S. history. Trump, if elected, will leverage it to do things with government that none of us has seen in our lifetime.
- His top obsession will be the Justice Department, the FBI and the intelligence community — all of which he thinks conspired to investigate him, thwart him, screw him. He's been very clear that he's willing to unleash these agencies against political enemies.
- The next priority will be the Department of Homeland Security and the border, with plans to erect sprawling detention camps, "scour the country for unauthorized immigrants," and "deport people by the millions per year," The New York Times reports. We're told Trump's top criterion for immigration officials will be whoever promises to be most aggressive. Trump has told allies he's confident the Supreme Court will back his most draconian moves.
- As first reported by Jonathan Swan for Axios last year, a key tool for Trump's "revenge term" would be the use of Schedule F personnel powers to wipe out employment protections for tens of thousands of civil servants across the federal government. Trump allies want a deep and wide purge of the professional staff that often serves across new administrations.
- Officials close to the Pentagon tell us they're worried about a plan, articulated by former Trump official Russ Vought in the Heritage document, to direct the National Security Council to "rigorously review all general and flag officer promotions to prioritize the core roles and responsibilities of the military over social engineering and non-defense related matters, including climate change, critical race theory [and] manufactured extremism." Indeed, the Trump allies see obstacles to remove at every level of every agency.
Sweeping Raids, Giant Camps and Mass Deportations: Inside Trump's 2025 Immigration Plans [ungated] - "If he regains power, Donald Trump wants not only to revive some of the immigration policies criticized as draconian during his presidency, but expand and toughen them."[2]
also btw...
Peter Thiel Is Taking a Break From Democracy [ungated] - "It's one of his many, many disappointments."[3]
Despite protestations to the contrary, I think there are enough Americans who want this to make it happen.
And there will be enough Americans who, just like they couldn't stomach Al Gore or Hillary Clinton, just won't muster the enthusiasm to vote for the Dem candidate in the general election (almost certainly Biden) because he's an awful person too, man.
The only correct outcome of the 2020 election was for Trump to lose the general election worse than any previous contest -- it should have been a 70/30 blowout. And yet, the difference in the voting tally was 47% to 51%. The blowout should have been so immense as to have been utterly immune to the most obscene gerrymander. The fact that it isn't immune to the worst tactics of voter suppression in decades means that enough Americans want their fascism, and they want their theocracy, and they have enough feckless allies in both-sidesism that they can win.
Should the republic fall to tyranny, I cannot say (in the largest, most general sense) that America doesn't deserve it.
We can keep the republic. And make it better, but I'm not convinced we will choose to.
posted by tclark at 8:45 AM on November 15, 2023 [69 favorites]
And there will be enough Americans who, just like they couldn't stomach Al Gore or Hillary Clinton, just won't muster the enthusiasm to vote for the Dem candidate in the general election (almost certainly Biden) because he's an awful person too, man.
The only correct outcome of the 2020 election was for Trump to lose the general election worse than any previous contest -- it should have been a 70/30 blowout. And yet, the difference in the voting tally was 47% to 51%. The blowout should have been so immense as to have been utterly immune to the most obscene gerrymander. The fact that it isn't immune to the worst tactics of voter suppression in decades means that enough Americans want their fascism, and they want their theocracy, and they have enough feckless allies in both-sidesism that they can win.
Should the republic fall to tyranny, I cannot say (in the largest, most general sense) that America doesn't deserve it.
We can keep the republic. And make it better, but I'm not convinced we will choose to.
posted by tclark at 8:45 AM on November 15, 2023 [69 favorites]
I mean, it makes sense that the Trump machine would start planning early re: staffing the gov't since last time it took them a ridiculously long time to do so. And it also follows that they would avoid the evil clown Giuliani types and go for people who were effective and persuasive and smart and free from moral restraint. So I don't find this shocking in the least. That's what a presidential campaign machine looks like.
We just need to, like, not vote him in.
posted by grumpybear69 at 8:53 AM on November 15, 2023 [15 favorites]
We just need to, like, not vote him in.
posted by grumpybear69 at 8:53 AM on November 15, 2023 [15 favorites]
Like most Americans, I am dreading the impending 2024 election. I'm doing some serious thinking about the outcome and if I will end up renouncing my US citizenship because of it. While I am not particularly patriotic, my family is still in the US and with mom's Alzheimer's diagnosis, I know I will likely have to travel more to see her and help when I am needed. I have no interest in returning to the US full-time; I made my life here in Canada and here I will stay. (I gained Canadian citizenship in 2018, immigrated to Canada in 2009.)
It's not like I will revel in revoking my citizenship; it's a nuclear option and one that is a privilege. I just feel so helpless watching from afar, despite still voting from abroad for all elections, not just the Big One. (FYI: my Trump supporting BIL feels that Americans who leave the country to live elsewhere should have their right to vote removed. It makes him angry I still get a say no matter I don't live there.)
I really want my home country to stop being such a fucking continual garbage fire, but this is where we are now.
posted by Kitteh at 8:58 AM on November 15, 2023 [11 favorites]
It's not like I will revel in revoking my citizenship; it's a nuclear option and one that is a privilege. I just feel so helpless watching from afar, despite still voting from abroad for all elections, not just the Big One. (FYI: my Trump supporting BIL feels that Americans who leave the country to live elsewhere should have their right to vote removed. It makes him angry I still get a say no matter I don't live there.)
I really want my home country to stop being such a fucking continual garbage fire, but this is where we are now.
posted by Kitteh at 8:58 AM on November 15, 2023 [11 favorites]
The project 2025 stuff isn’t just for Trump. For these crazies any Republican will do. That’s the terrifying thing.
posted by interogative mood at 9:01 AM on November 15, 2023 [40 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 9:01 AM on November 15, 2023 [40 favorites]
We dodged a bullet on January 6, 2021, but we've been hit with shrapnel ever since. The precedent of Roe v Wade erased by an unapologetically corrupt and unaccountable judiciary. Military and logistical support for murdering innocent civilians overseas. Ongoing right-wing extremist violence here at home.
Fascist Republicanism remains the real long-term threat to the safety and security of our democratically-elected government and to our people.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 9:04 AM on November 15, 2023 [9 favorites]
Fascist Republicanism remains the real long-term threat to the safety and security of our democratically-elected government and to our people.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 9:04 AM on November 15, 2023 [9 favorites]
Despite protestations to the contrary, I think there are enough Americans who want this to make it happen.
They are a minority -- vocal and determined, but a minority. I'm confident that significantly more Americans very much don't want something like this to happen.
And I think Biden has a good chance of beating Trump again, as he did last time. He is perennially underestimated. But Trump himself reputedly said (as far back as 2016, IIRC) that he thought Biden was the only Democratic contender who could beat him.
The public isn't in love with Biden -- due partly to the last few years of inflation, partly to the terrible media coverage he's gotten since the Afghanistan withdrawal, and partly to a combo of ageism and ableism that lead many to misjudge him as senile. And we're still in the stage of the race where many people -- including high-profile pundits who should know better -- are loudly and extensively fantasizing that some other candidate that they can really fall in love with will parachute in and sweep them off their feet.
But over the coming months, more and more people are going to make their peace, however reluctantly, with the fact that this is a Biden-Trump rematch. And many are going to start reviewing and appreciating the remarkable record of achievement that Biden has racked up, against all odds. Meanwhile, the economy looks likely to continue steadily improving.
Meanwhile, Trump will remain entangled in multiple court battles, fuming, raging, and lying flagrantly. His cult followers will never desert him. But I don't think his act will be tremendously appealing to people in the persuadable middle.
posted by Artifice_Eternity at 9:05 AM on November 15, 2023 [47 favorites]
They are a minority -- vocal and determined, but a minority. I'm confident that significantly more Americans very much don't want something like this to happen.
And I think Biden has a good chance of beating Trump again, as he did last time. He is perennially underestimated. But Trump himself reputedly said (as far back as 2016, IIRC) that he thought Biden was the only Democratic contender who could beat him.
The public isn't in love with Biden -- due partly to the last few years of inflation, partly to the terrible media coverage he's gotten since the Afghanistan withdrawal, and partly to a combo of ageism and ableism that lead many to misjudge him as senile. And we're still in the stage of the race where many people -- including high-profile pundits who should know better -- are loudly and extensively fantasizing that some other candidate that they can really fall in love with will parachute in and sweep them off their feet.
But over the coming months, more and more people are going to make their peace, however reluctantly, with the fact that this is a Biden-Trump rematch. And many are going to start reviewing and appreciating the remarkable record of achievement that Biden has racked up, against all odds. Meanwhile, the economy looks likely to continue steadily improving.
Meanwhile, Trump will remain entangled in multiple court battles, fuming, raging, and lying flagrantly. His cult followers will never desert him. But I don't think his act will be tremendously appealing to people in the persuadable middle.
posted by Artifice_Eternity at 9:05 AM on November 15, 2023 [47 favorites]
A former senior official in Donald Trump’s White House slammed his ex-boss as a “traitor” and “a clear and present danger to our democracy,” according to a new book by ABC’s Jonathan Karl.
“He lacks any shred of human decency, humility or caring. He is morally bankrupt, breathtakingly dishonest, lethally incompetent, and stunningly ignorant of virtually anything related to governing, history, geography, human events or world affairs. He is a traitor and a malignancy in our nation and represents a clear and present danger to our democracy and the rule of law.”
the former official hasn’t gone public because he fears “retribution” from Trump against himself and his family.
posted by 1970s Antihero at 9:06 AM on November 15, 2023 [18 favorites]
“He lacks any shred of human decency, humility or caring. He is morally bankrupt, breathtakingly dishonest, lethally incompetent, and stunningly ignorant of virtually anything related to governing, history, geography, human events or world affairs. He is a traitor and a malignancy in our nation and represents a clear and present danger to our democracy and the rule of law.”
the former official hasn’t gone public because he fears “retribution” from Trump against himself and his family.
posted by 1970s Antihero at 9:06 AM on November 15, 2023 [18 favorites]
I'm somewhat heartened by the idea that Team Biden has decided it's now okay to use the words "Trump" and "Nazi" in the same sentence. Let's hope they keep it up and, perhaps, get even braver in their rhetoric over the next 12 months.
posted by JoeZydeco at 9:09 AM on November 15, 2023 [11 favorites]
posted by JoeZydeco at 9:09 AM on November 15, 2023 [11 favorites]
Did we forget the midterms already? Generally going full mask-off Nazi isn’t a sign of strength. Look at literally every election since 2016.
We’re in the cornered animal stage. Still dangerous? Sure. But I’m feeling surprisingly good about 2024.
Remember that but about Democrats falling in love, Republicans falling in line? It feels like that’s swapped these days. R’s knife fight each other over purity tests, and D’s are going to the mat until we fix Roe and the fascists.
posted by leotrotsky at 9:18 AM on November 15, 2023 [25 favorites]
We’re in the cornered animal stage. Still dangerous? Sure. But I’m feeling surprisingly good about 2024.
Remember that but about Democrats falling in love, Republicans falling in line? It feels like that’s swapped these days. R’s knife fight each other over purity tests, and D’s are going to the mat until we fix Roe and the fascists.
posted by leotrotsky at 9:18 AM on November 15, 2023 [25 favorites]
Stephen Colbert's top 10 minutes last night were a full throated denunciation of Trump as a fascist and the Republican party as a threat to democracy, and then Rachel Maddow was on for the entire rest of the episode discussing Fascist threats from the US's past and what we're seeing happen now.
posted by hippybear at 9:19 AM on November 15, 2023 [30 favorites]
posted by hippybear at 9:19 AM on November 15, 2023 [30 favorites]
They are a minority -- vocal and determined, but a minority. I'm confident that significantly more Americans very much don't want something like this to happen.
In 2016:
81.3 million people voted for Biden
74.2 million people voted for Trump
331.9 million people live in the USA
22.4% of the population voted for Trump.
24.5% of the population voted for Biden.
There doesn't need to be a majority of people voting for Trump for Trump to win. If 1 American in 4 votes for Trump, Trump wins the next election.
Despite trying to overthrow the country, the Republican party currently controls the US House. In the Senate, they have a structural advantage, and if Trump wins they should be expected to control it.
So with 1/4 of the country voting for them, the Republican party can claim the apparatus of state, and execute the plan described above.
They have learnt what parts of the apparatus of State will stop them from forming a dictatorship, have produced a plan to eliminate those parts, and are now publicly preparing to do it. They have convinced a large number of followers that the apparatus of elections is corrupt, and any attempt to attack it is justified.
They are voting out the members of their own party who refused to break democracy the last time they tried a coup. The pro-fascist "entertainment-news" network remains the #1 source of news in the nation.
"They aren't the majority" doesn't matter, or than morally, and this isn't a moral battle.
posted by NotAYakk at 9:19 AM on November 15, 2023 [61 favorites]
In 2016:
81.3 million people voted for Biden
74.2 million people voted for Trump
331.9 million people live in the USA
22.4% of the population voted for Trump.
24.5% of the population voted for Biden.
There doesn't need to be a majority of people voting for Trump for Trump to win. If 1 American in 4 votes for Trump, Trump wins the next election.
Despite trying to overthrow the country, the Republican party currently controls the US House. In the Senate, they have a structural advantage, and if Trump wins they should be expected to control it.
So with 1/4 of the country voting for them, the Republican party can claim the apparatus of state, and execute the plan described above.
They have learnt what parts of the apparatus of State will stop them from forming a dictatorship, have produced a plan to eliminate those parts, and are now publicly preparing to do it. They have convinced a large number of followers that the apparatus of elections is corrupt, and any attempt to attack it is justified.
They are voting out the members of their own party who refused to break democracy the last time they tried a coup. The pro-fascist "entertainment-news" network remains the #1 source of news in the nation.
"They aren't the majority" doesn't matter, or than morally, and this isn't a moral battle.
posted by NotAYakk at 9:19 AM on November 15, 2023 [61 favorites]
> The public isn't in love with Biden...
I remember this "there are only two things on the menu" dynamic from 2016, when enough Americans ordered the rotten hamburger with shards of glass in it over the grilled cheese sandwich because they didn't like the type of cheese on offer to make the hamburger the most popular menu item, and then everyone had to eat nothing but rotten, glass-filled hamburgers for four years.
posted by The Card Cheat at 9:22 AM on November 15, 2023 [26 favorites]
I remember this "there are only two things on the menu" dynamic from 2016, when enough Americans ordered the rotten hamburger with shards of glass in it over the grilled cheese sandwich because they didn't like the type of cheese on offer to make the hamburger the most popular menu item, and then everyone had to eat nothing but rotten, glass-filled hamburgers for four years.
posted by The Card Cheat at 9:22 AM on November 15, 2023 [26 favorites]
I mean, it's not even really a curtain. The Heritage Foundation brownshirts held a fucking job fair at the Iowa State Fair to replace federal civil servants with fascist loyalists. This stuff is all happening out in the open.
posted by mcstayinskool at 9:25 AM on November 15, 2023 [9 favorites]
posted by mcstayinskool at 9:25 AM on November 15, 2023 [9 favorites]
The problem is that too many — like my Christian right wing relatives — are off the deep end. Biden = all bad, Trump... well God uses flawed people to do his work. Really. Facts don't matter, reality doesn't matter.
Between gerrymandering, the take over of school boards and local governments by the far right and this packing of the courts.
I fear we are screwed.
posted by cccorlew at 9:26 AM on November 15, 2023 [11 favorites]
Between gerrymandering, the take over of school boards and local governments by the far right and this packing of the courts.
I fear we are screwed.
posted by cccorlew at 9:26 AM on November 15, 2023 [11 favorites]
In 2016:
81.3 million people voted for Biden
74.2 million people voted for Trump
331.9 million people live in the USA
Trump wasn't up against Biden in 2016, he was up against Hillary Clinton. Are you sure you have the right data there?
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 9:27 AM on November 15, 2023 [12 favorites]
81.3 million people voted for Biden
74.2 million people voted for Trump
331.9 million people live in the USA
Trump wasn't up against Biden in 2016, he was up against Hillary Clinton. Are you sure you have the right data there?
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 9:27 AM on November 15, 2023 [12 favorites]
I despise these nazis with every fiber of my being.
posted by chronkite at 9:28 AM on November 15, 2023 [14 favorites]
posted by chronkite at 9:28 AM on November 15, 2023 [14 favorites]
people frequently referred to how Trump emboldened the nazis, the fascists, the bigots, the hateful bullies
I can't blame Trump for the assholes trying to dismantle public education and health in Alberta, but I am surely seeing what 'emboldened' looks like: from all the letters to the editor in every small town paper, to the current provincial government's recent party AGM (almost unanimous voting on all motions and not even a fig leaf of shame for the outrageous bullshit)
there was a time when a candidate who threatened a "lake of fire" for homosexuals would be a real outlier, and whatever passed for conservatism would quickly and carefully push that voice to the fringe. that's what has changed: these attitudes are the base and the core, and they don't try to hide it but revel in it. I'm much more active with my union, I'm not sure how else to fight this in any meaningful way.
posted by elkevelvet at 9:29 AM on November 15, 2023 [13 favorites]
I can't blame Trump for the assholes trying to dismantle public education and health in Alberta, but I am surely seeing what 'emboldened' looks like: from all the letters to the editor in every small town paper, to the current provincial government's recent party AGM (almost unanimous voting on all motions and not even a fig leaf of shame for the outrageous bullshit)
there was a time when a candidate who threatened a "lake of fire" for homosexuals would be a real outlier, and whatever passed for conservatism would quickly and carefully push that voice to the fringe. that's what has changed: these attitudes are the base and the core, and they don't try to hide it but revel in it. I'm much more active with my union, I'm not sure how else to fight this in any meaningful way.
posted by elkevelvet at 9:29 AM on November 15, 2023 [13 favorites]
Resistance to fascism requires more than just voting for one office every four years. A good way to build the organization and solidarity and power that will be needed to resist militarized police and ethnic cleansing in a future Trump America is to join the organizations and citizen collectives that are resisting the ethnic cleansing in Gaza and the building of Cop City in Georgia. Restrictions on anti-war protests/speech (as is happening all over the country), increasing police spending to monitor social media (as is happening in NY), and prosecution of legal defense funds (as is happening in GA) are some of the same tools that the Trump admin will use to achieve their agenda. Do not wait for Nov 2024. Get involved now; there is fascism happening now.
posted by ohneat at 9:30 AM on November 15, 2023 [25 favorites]
posted by ohneat at 9:30 AM on November 15, 2023 [25 favorites]
There doesn't need to be a majority of people voting for Trump for Trump to win. If 1 American in 4 votes for Trump, Trump wins the next election.
Well yes, but no, because Electoral College. So yeah Trump doesn't need a nationwide majority to win, he won in '16 because of a few thousand more votes in the right states, but "1 in 4" is a pretty meaningless number as far as his actual chances to win goes.
posted by soundguy99 at 9:32 AM on November 15, 2023 [6 favorites]
Well yes, but no, because Electoral College. So yeah Trump doesn't need a nationwide majority to win, he won in '16 because of a few thousand more votes in the right states, but "1 in 4" is a pretty meaningless number as far as his actual chances to win goes.
posted by soundguy99 at 9:32 AM on November 15, 2023 [6 favorites]
331.9 million people live in the USA
But you can't vote until you're 18. If we're going to digest stats we need to look at the correct numbers. In 2021, 258.3 million people were voting age. In 2022, 161.4 million were actually registered.
I have a gut feeling Taylor Swift will be a huge influence in the 2024 campaign.
posted by JoeZydeco at 9:34 AM on November 15, 2023 [24 favorites]
But you can't vote until you're 18. If we're going to digest stats we need to look at the correct numbers. In 2021, 258.3 million people were voting age. In 2022, 161.4 million were actually registered.
I have a gut feeling Taylor Swift will be a huge influence in the 2024 campaign.
posted by JoeZydeco at 9:34 AM on November 15, 2023 [24 favorites]
Also- not sure if this is helping or hurting the fight against fascism in America but ever since Jan 6 I have had a 100% ban on MAGA people in my life. I won’t do business with them, shake their hand, speak…nothing.
They are dead to me, with zero hope of returning. Family, former friends, whoever.
They know they’ve been shunned and they know why. Question is, does this shame them in any way and cause them to reflect or does it steel their resolve? Will even a single trumper anywhere ever admit they were wrong, or are their identities too deeply invested in the lost cause?
I guess we’ll find out next year.
posted by chronkite at 9:40 AM on November 15, 2023 [18 favorites]
They are dead to me, with zero hope of returning. Family, former friends, whoever.
They know they’ve been shunned and they know why. Question is, does this shame them in any way and cause them to reflect or does it steel their resolve? Will even a single trumper anywhere ever admit they were wrong, or are their identities too deeply invested in the lost cause?
I guess we’ll find out next year.
posted by chronkite at 9:40 AM on November 15, 2023 [18 favorites]
I'm somewhat heartened by the idea that Team Biden has decided it's now okay to use the words "Trump" and "Nazi" in the same sentence.
(From the link)
posted by ricochet biscuit at 9:43 AM on November 15, 2023 [12 favorites]
(From the link)
“Those who try to make that ridiculous assertion [that Trump calling those who oppose him “vermin” is comparable to Hitler calling those who opposed him “vermin”] are clearly snowflakes grasping for anything because they are suffering from Trump derangement syndrome and their sad, miserable existence will be crushed when President Trump returns to the White House,” [Trump campaign spokesperson Steven] Cheung said Monday in a statement.It’s good that the campaign is giving a summer job to someone’s fifteen-year-old edgelord nephew whose comments on Instagram always rack up dozens of likes from his followers.
posted by ricochet biscuit at 9:43 AM on November 15, 2023 [12 favorites]
I'm keeping to a holding pattern until Jan6th 2025. No major purchases that aren't absolutely necessary or which avoid entanglements (like buying out the car at end of lease). I'm dual US/UK and while the UK is in a bad way it ain't this right now.
Also, if Biden croaks before next November, I think that's the ball game. Harris polls even worse, iirc and I don't think being the incumbent would save her. Hell, I don't know that she would win the primary. I have no idea who would win a primary, let alone the general..
posted by Slackermagee at 9:43 AM on November 15, 2023 [4 favorites]
Also, if Biden croaks before next November, I think that's the ball game. Harris polls even worse, iirc and I don't think being the incumbent would save her. Hell, I don't know that she would win the primary. I have no idea who would win a primary, let alone the general..
posted by Slackermagee at 9:43 AM on November 15, 2023 [4 favorites]
Trump wasn't up against Biden in 2016, he was up against Hillary Clinton. Are you sure you have the right data there?
Wrong year, right vote totals. Population might not be accurate for 2020, but that will change things by a small factor.
posted by NotAYakk at 9:49 AM on November 15, 2023 [1 favorite]
Wrong year, right vote totals. Population might not be accurate for 2020, but that will change things by a small factor.
posted by NotAYakk at 9:49 AM on November 15, 2023 [1 favorite]
In 2016:
81.3 million people voted for Biden
74.2 million people voted for Trump
331.9 million people live in the USA
22.4% of the population voted for Trump.
24.5% of the population voted for Biden.
There doesn't need to be a majority of people voting for Trump for Trump to win. If 1 American in 4 votes for Trump, Trump wins the next election.
So, this is misusing math, and in a way that obscures things. First off, since we're talking an election, what matters is not the size of the population, but the polity - the actual "voting public". Between the two big groups of the population excluded from the polity - minors and non-citizen permanent residents - that's around 80 million off the top of that number. And as was pointed out, the active polity (that is, people actually registered to vote) is even smaller than that. So to say that Trump needs to win "1 in 4 Americans" is simply not true, because that's not how polities work. In fact, the numbers show that the active polity is pretty much consumed (which isn't surprising, as the active polity consists of the people who took the effort to sign up to vote.)
That's not to say all this is scary and disturbing, because it is! But we need to look at things honestly, and not blind ourselves with bad math.
posted by NoxAeternum at 9:49 AM on November 15, 2023 [18 favorites]
81.3 million people voted for Biden
74.2 million people voted for Trump
331.9 million people live in the USA
22.4% of the population voted for Trump.
24.5% of the population voted for Biden.
There doesn't need to be a majority of people voting for Trump for Trump to win. If 1 American in 4 votes for Trump, Trump wins the next election.
So, this is misusing math, and in a way that obscures things. First off, since we're talking an election, what matters is not the size of the population, but the polity - the actual "voting public". Between the two big groups of the population excluded from the polity - minors and non-citizen permanent residents - that's around 80 million off the top of that number. And as was pointed out, the active polity (that is, people actually registered to vote) is even smaller than that. So to say that Trump needs to win "1 in 4 Americans" is simply not true, because that's not how polities work. In fact, the numbers show that the active polity is pretty much consumed (which isn't surprising, as the active polity consists of the people who took the effort to sign up to vote.)
That's not to say all this is scary and disturbing, because it is! But we need to look at things honestly, and not blind ourselves with bad math.
posted by NoxAeternum at 9:49 AM on November 15, 2023 [18 favorites]
Here is something you can do. There's more info here about a proposed change to schedule F to protect career civil employees.
You can comment on the actual proposed rule here, show your support for the proposed protections.
The comment period ends on Nov 17, so get your comments in!
posted by braksandwich at 9:50 AM on November 15, 2023 [27 favorites]
You can comment on the actual proposed rule here, show your support for the proposed protections.
The comment period ends on Nov 17, so get your comments in!
posted by braksandwich at 9:50 AM on November 15, 2023 [27 favorites]
I know where my one vote is going and it's not going to the fascist dictator wannabe.
posted by tommasz at 9:58 AM on November 15, 2023 [5 favorites]
posted by tommasz at 9:58 AM on November 15, 2023 [5 favorites]
Thank you, braksandwich. Just submitted my comment!
posted by JoeZydeco at 10:00 AM on November 15, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by JoeZydeco at 10:00 AM on November 15, 2023 [4 favorites]
The issue is not whether Biden will beat Trump; I'm confident he will. The issue is whether MAGA nation will let any level of Dem POTUS victory stand; they won't.
Starting the day after the eletction, expect the skies above the courthouses, legislatures and news media buildings across the land to darken and fill with screeching, braying MAGA lawyers, legislators, pundits andmilitia demonstrators.
posted by zaixfeep at 10:02 AM on November 15, 2023 [5 favorites]
Starting the day after the eletction, expect the skies above the courthouses, legislatures and news media buildings across the land to darken and fill with screeching, braying MAGA lawyers, legislators, pundits and
posted by zaixfeep at 10:02 AM on November 15, 2023 [5 favorites]
I too feel we are screwed. But electoral things keep happening, (Kansas and Ohio abortion protections, Kentucky Gov., Virginia state house and senate) that give me hope. But this is all chilling shit. WE can stop it.
posted by Windopaene at 10:11 AM on November 15, 2023 [8 favorites]
posted by Windopaene at 10:11 AM on November 15, 2023 [8 favorites]
Here’s another troubling stat: an 80-year-old American male has a ~7% chance of dying before reaching their next birthday, per the SSA.
posted by swift at 10:12 AM on November 15, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by swift at 10:12 AM on November 15, 2023 [3 favorites]
the jan 6th stuff was a test run for coup-ing the us government and now they know what the weak institutional spots are (dictator-compliant republicans, democrats overly-cautious in prosecuting criminal behavior for fear of looking political) and what points they need to weaken. is tuberville really stalling hundreds of military promotions because of abortions? or because they want to be able to advance their preferred officers to command if trump gets elected again, officers who won't refuse to enforce a dicator's orders.
posted by logicpunk at 10:24 AM on November 15, 2023 [25 favorites]
posted by logicpunk at 10:24 AM on November 15, 2023 [25 favorites]
They are a minority -- vocal and determined, but a minority. I'm confident that significantly more Americans very much don't want something like this to happen.
This is almost surely true, and yet: the thing we all have to face head on is that presidential elections are basically a coin toss and have been for multiple decades. The last true blowout presidential election we had was 1984. I could see an argument for 1988 but to me a blowout is at minimum a 10-point margin. Most people just don't care all that much.
The fascists have learned their lessons from 2016 and 2020. They weren't prepared to institute an executive dictatorship in 2016 and they weren't prepared to stage a coup in 2020, and by "prepared" I mean not that that wasn't a bridge they weren't yet ready to cross but that literally they hadn't done the groundwork to do these things.
That's over. The Heritage Foundation and Project 2025 have got the executive dictatorship covered, and that covers a coup attempt after a losing election because... after they institute their project there won't be a free and fair election for president.
They want to build camps for undocumented residents. They want to invoke the Insurrection Act to deploy the military to do domestic peacekeeping. They want to fire federal civil servants and replace them with party loyalists. These are not conspiracy theories from hippie communists. These are actual documented plans.
For my part? I am a chronically ill queer person who is liquidating my assets and preparing to move out of the country upon a Republican seizing the presidency in 2024, because no matter what happens on a local, state, or congressional level, the plans the fascists have developed won't be stopped outside of force/civil conflict. Either way, I don't want to be here.
posted by rhymedirective at 10:30 AM on November 15, 2023 [24 favorites]
This is almost surely true, and yet: the thing we all have to face head on is that presidential elections are basically a coin toss and have been for multiple decades. The last true blowout presidential election we had was 1984. I could see an argument for 1988 but to me a blowout is at minimum a 10-point margin. Most people just don't care all that much.
The fascists have learned their lessons from 2016 and 2020. They weren't prepared to institute an executive dictatorship in 2016 and they weren't prepared to stage a coup in 2020, and by "prepared" I mean not that that wasn't a bridge they weren't yet ready to cross but that literally they hadn't done the groundwork to do these things.
That's over. The Heritage Foundation and Project 2025 have got the executive dictatorship covered, and that covers a coup attempt after a losing election because... after they institute their project there won't be a free and fair election for president.
They want to build camps for undocumented residents. They want to invoke the Insurrection Act to deploy the military to do domestic peacekeeping. They want to fire federal civil servants and replace them with party loyalists. These are not conspiracy theories from hippie communists. These are actual documented plans.
For my part? I am a chronically ill queer person who is liquidating my assets and preparing to move out of the country upon a Republican seizing the presidency in 2024, because no matter what happens on a local, state, or congressional level, the plans the fascists have developed won't be stopped outside of force/civil conflict. Either way, I don't want to be here.
posted by rhymedirective at 10:30 AM on November 15, 2023 [24 favorites]
"Ageism" is gonna be the liberals way to blame when he looses like "sexism" was when Bernie didn't just roll over for The Queen.
It's not Age, Trump is almost as old and "functions" (well not well but "better" in terms of normal day to day appearances of fitness). THIS is the issue not Biden's age, but his ACTING his age. Or rather older than it. IDK. He's the oldest president. Trump is finally showing it too. But Biden is wearing it worse. And "underdog" doesn't work when it's taken you HOW many tries to even get the nod and then get it, and ONLY after fighting someone who should have been an easy sell? And WHY would we listen to Trump telling us who the only one who could beat him is?
The liberal gloating about the recent local/state successess around abortion are a smoke screen. The only hope I have is that the voters will do the right thing and put in Dems in Congress as a counterpressure/block to the insanity that's going to come and because that's state level it's the best hope. I don't trust that there aren't going to be more shenanigans.
posted by symbioid at 10:35 AM on November 15, 2023 [6 favorites]
It's not Age, Trump is almost as old and "functions" (well not well but "better" in terms of normal day to day appearances of fitness). THIS is the issue not Biden's age, but his ACTING his age. Or rather older than it. IDK. He's the oldest president. Trump is finally showing it too. But Biden is wearing it worse. And "underdog" doesn't work when it's taken you HOW many tries to even get the nod and then get it, and ONLY after fighting someone who should have been an easy sell? And WHY would we listen to Trump telling us who the only one who could beat him is?
The liberal gloating about the recent local/state successess around abortion are a smoke screen. The only hope I have is that the voters will do the right thing and put in Dems in Congress as a counterpressure/block to the insanity that's going to come and because that's state level it's the best hope. I don't trust that there aren't going to be more shenanigans.
posted by symbioid at 10:35 AM on November 15, 2023 [6 favorites]
It would be really, really terrible if a bunch of godless, woke liberals infiltrated the application process and made a mockery of it.
posted by The 10th Regiment of Foot at 10:35 AM on November 15, 2023 [12 favorites]
posted by The 10th Regiment of Foot at 10:35 AM on November 15, 2023 [12 favorites]
to paraphrase michael knowles:
For the good of society ... the Republican Party must be eradicated from public life entirely — the whole preposterous ideology, at every level.
posted by i used to be someone else at 10:36 AM on November 15, 2023 [18 favorites]
For the good of society ... the Republican Party must be eradicated from public life entirely — the whole preposterous ideology, at every level.
posted by i used to be someone else at 10:36 AM on November 15, 2023 [18 favorites]
I'll be back later. I'm gonna go out and stand barefoot in the backyard and moan at the sky for while.
posted by ob1quixote at 10:40 AM on November 15, 2023 [16 favorites]
posted by ob1quixote at 10:40 AM on November 15, 2023 [16 favorites]
One of the things about 2016 was that Hillary Clinton was a known quantity -- perhaps the most investigated, scrutinized, analyzed, draped-in-FUD candidate in modern history -- and Donald Trump was not. I mean, yes, anyone with an IQ above room temperature could take one look at Trump's history, statements and platform and understand that he would be mind-numbingly awful as POTUS, but many people clung to the idea that he was an outsider, a non-politician, someone and something new and different from the same-old, same-old political class. My late father told me, with a straight face, that I shouldn't complain about Trump's election because "You don't know what he's going to do yet."
Cut to 2020. America had four years to witness what it was that Trump was going to do, and America rejected him. (Not by THAT much -- a few hundred thousand votes in certain states could've re-tipped the scales into Hell -- but by enough.) The base remained firm, but enough "moderate Republicans" soured on Trump's excesses and decided Biden was a lesser evil, even while voting straight R down the rest of their ballots.
Now, here's the thing. Show me one thing that Donald Trump has said or done since, in any context, that would turn those moderates around and bring them back into his camp. Signs that he'd mellowed or changed or pivoted into someone they could respect. Statements indicating that things would be different in a good way going forward, that it wouldn't be another flaming dumpster fire for four years.
His base is still 120% on board, of course. His message is that those loyal to him are privileged, and will be the Real Americans reigning over everyone else culturally, socially and economically, and those susceptible to that siren song are just as fervent for the most part. But show me one person who's now all for Trump who wasn't completely in the tank for him in 2016 AND in 2020.
The question is not whether Biden is a better candidate. The question is TURNOUT. This is why people are concerned about Palestine-friendly voters in Michigan fuming over a lack of calls for a ceasefire and staying home rather than voting Democratic. This is why the endless refrain of "Joe's too old" and "Joe stutters" and "Joe stumbles" and such dismays me, but won't be the the tipping point.
81 million people voted not as a ringing endorsement of Joe Biden, but to get Trump the fuck out of the White House. Those wobbly Republicans and I-don't-usually-vote-but types have to come out again specifically to keep him the fuck out of the White House. That's what the election will turn upon, full stop. Either they will feel motivated to do that, or they will not.
posted by delfin at 10:42 AM on November 15, 2023 [49 favorites]
Cut to 2020. America had four years to witness what it was that Trump was going to do, and America rejected him. (Not by THAT much -- a few hundred thousand votes in certain states could've re-tipped the scales into Hell -- but by enough.) The base remained firm, but enough "moderate Republicans" soured on Trump's excesses and decided Biden was a lesser evil, even while voting straight R down the rest of their ballots.
Now, here's the thing. Show me one thing that Donald Trump has said or done since, in any context, that would turn those moderates around and bring them back into his camp. Signs that he'd mellowed or changed or pivoted into someone they could respect. Statements indicating that things would be different in a good way going forward, that it wouldn't be another flaming dumpster fire for four years.
His base is still 120% on board, of course. His message is that those loyal to him are privileged, and will be the Real Americans reigning over everyone else culturally, socially and economically, and those susceptible to that siren song are just as fervent for the most part. But show me one person who's now all for Trump who wasn't completely in the tank for him in 2016 AND in 2020.
The question is not whether Biden is a better candidate. The question is TURNOUT. This is why people are concerned about Palestine-friendly voters in Michigan fuming over a lack of calls for a ceasefire and staying home rather than voting Democratic. This is why the endless refrain of "Joe's too old" and "Joe stutters" and "Joe stumbles" and such dismays me, but won't be the the tipping point.
81 million people voted not as a ringing endorsement of Joe Biden, but to get Trump the fuck out of the White House. Those wobbly Republicans and I-don't-usually-vote-but types have to come out again specifically to keep him the fuck out of the White House. That's what the election will turn upon, full stop. Either they will feel motivated to do that, or they will not.
posted by delfin at 10:42 AM on November 15, 2023 [49 favorites]
One silver lining in all of this, and it is a slim one, is Trump's financial woes. His legal fees outstrip his fundraising, even the griftiest grifts. The entire GOP is slipping into insolvency with grassroots level organizations actually shutting down due to lack of funds.
posted by The 10th Regiment of Foot at 10:48 AM on November 15, 2023 [20 favorites]
posted by The 10th Regiment of Foot at 10:48 AM on November 15, 2023 [20 favorites]
symbiod, while I do worry a lot about Biden, I don't get how you (or anyone) can see Trump as more functional.
I mean, they are both old men. I wish we had an alternative. But one has 50 years of political experience, is good at his job and is able to ride a bike and read a book. The other is a nepo kid who has never, ever accomplished anything serious in his life (and no I don't count getting elected for president in the way that happened or being the star of a reality show as relevant), and lives on junk food and adderal. Does it make Trump more functional that he dies his hair and wears make-up?
I know a lot of Americans see Trump as more energetic and young-looking, but how are they so easily fooled. Have they never met a used-car salesman?
One silver lining in all of this, and it is a slim one, is Trump's financial woes. His legal fees outstrip his fundraising, even the griftiest grifts. The entire GOP is slipping into insolvency with grassroots level organizations actually shutting down due to lack of funds.
This. Let's just hope it happens before the election...
posted by mumimor at 10:51 AM on November 15, 2023 [15 favorites]
I mean, they are both old men. I wish we had an alternative. But one has 50 years of political experience, is good at his job and is able to ride a bike and read a book. The other is a nepo kid who has never, ever accomplished anything serious in his life (and no I don't count getting elected for president in the way that happened or being the star of a reality show as relevant), and lives on junk food and adderal. Does it make Trump more functional that he dies his hair and wears make-up?
I know a lot of Americans see Trump as more energetic and young-looking, but how are they so easily fooled. Have they never met a used-car salesman?
One silver lining in all of this, and it is a slim one, is Trump's financial woes. His legal fees outstrip his fundraising, even the griftiest grifts. The entire GOP is slipping into insolvency with grassroots level organizations actually shutting down due to lack of funds.
This. Let's just hope it happens before the election...
posted by mumimor at 10:51 AM on November 15, 2023 [15 favorites]
Trump is almost as old and "functions" (well not well but "better" in terms of normal day to day appearances of fitness).
You have got to be fucking kidding.
posted by soundguy99 at 10:51 AM on November 15, 2023 [45 favorites]
You have got to be fucking kidding.
posted by soundguy99 at 10:51 AM on November 15, 2023 [45 favorites]
My bold prediction is that no matter what happens, Trump is gonna be just fine.
posted by The Card Cheat at 10:51 AM on November 15, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by The Card Cheat at 10:51 AM on November 15, 2023 [1 favorite]
I shouldn't complain about Trump's election because "You don't know what he's going to do yet."
Yeah my sister's father-in-law said he was supporting Trump in 2016 "to shake things up". He also thought JFK had a hand in his own assassination for reasons. So go figure.
posted by mmascolino at 10:52 AM on November 15, 2023 [2 favorites]
Yeah my sister's father-in-law said he was supporting Trump in 2016 "to shake things up". He also thought JFK had a hand in his own assassination for reasons. So go figure.
posted by mmascolino at 10:52 AM on November 15, 2023 [2 favorites]
Notes on the organization and tactics of the French Resistance.
posted by Naberius at 11:03 AM on November 15, 2023 [14 favorites]
posted by Naberius at 11:03 AM on November 15, 2023 [14 favorites]
Fulton county PA, represent. Two of our three county commissioners, Randy Bunch and Stuart Ulsh, handed over election machine data to a third party in an attempt to screw around with the election in 2020. The third county commissioner, Paula Jean Shives, did not participate in that.
Fulton County has been sanctioned for it (ie: they were wrong), which is going to cost every person in this county Real World Money to pay court costs and stuff. The courts have all agreed that they were wrong to do it. Like, this wasn't a hard call. They did it, they admitted they did it, the courts slapped them down on it, and so... yeah.
Last week's election results for county commissioner: Most votes went to Randolph Bunch. (Ulsh wasn't on the ticket except as a write-in candidate.) Read that again. The good citizens of Fulton County just re-elected the commissioner who did criminal election data stuff. Seriously. They sure did.
Y'know who DID NOT get re-elected? Paula Jean Shives, who didn't do the election bad behavior and is on the record as having opposed it right along. *sigh*
And yes, this is a tiny county in Greater Rednecklandia -- about 14000 people live here. It's redneck and poor and there are not very many of us... but if you would like to know how these people (and those like them inhabiting other red zones on the map) feel and vote...
They re-elected the (LITERAL) criminal and failed to re-elect the voice of reason.
posted by which_chick at 11:04 AM on November 15, 2023 [31 favorites]
Fulton County has been sanctioned for it (ie: they were wrong), which is going to cost every person in this county Real World Money to pay court costs and stuff. The courts have all agreed that they were wrong to do it. Like, this wasn't a hard call. They did it, they admitted they did it, the courts slapped them down on it, and so... yeah.
Last week's election results for county commissioner: Most votes went to Randolph Bunch. (Ulsh wasn't on the ticket except as a write-in candidate.) Read that again. The good citizens of Fulton County just re-elected the commissioner who did criminal election data stuff. Seriously. They sure did.
Y'know who DID NOT get re-elected? Paula Jean Shives, who didn't do the election bad behavior and is on the record as having opposed it right along. *sigh*
And yes, this is a tiny county in Greater Rednecklandia -- about 14000 people live here. It's redneck and poor and there are not very many of us... but if you would like to know how these people (and those like them inhabiting other red zones on the map) feel and vote...
They re-elected the (LITERAL) criminal and failed to re-elect the voice of reason.
posted by which_chick at 11:04 AM on November 15, 2023 [31 favorites]
One thing that a lot of my "smart people talking about the news" podcasts have been saying for a couple of months now is that the general populace don't watch the news closely enough to realize that Trump is actually going to be running against Biden. And that they likely won't realize he's going to be the nominee until maybe next March or so, after some actual primaries have been run.
The challenge is going to be continuing the messaging, and keeping the messaging fresh enough to keep being noticed, for literally MONTHS while this sleeping part of the public are slowly waking up into the election cycle.
Those of us having this conversation here are in the genuine minority in that we're actively pursuing knowing about the news. Most people don't do this at all.
posted by hippybear at 11:09 AM on November 15, 2023 [12 favorites]
The challenge is going to be continuing the messaging, and keeping the messaging fresh enough to keep being noticed, for literally MONTHS while this sleeping part of the public are slowly waking up into the election cycle.
Those of us having this conversation here are in the genuine minority in that we're actively pursuing knowing about the news. Most people don't do this at all.
posted by hippybear at 11:09 AM on November 15, 2023 [12 favorites]
The next priority will be the Department of Homeland Security and the border, with plans to erect sprawling detention camps, "scour the country for unauthorized immigrants," and "deport people by the millions per year," The New York Times reports. We're told Trump's top criterion for immigration officials will be whoever promises to be most aggressive. Trump has told allies he's confident the Supreme Court will back his most draconian moves.
God forbid this abomination goes through, what happens after that? Undocumented people have always been an underclass which employers have used to suppress wages for the last century. The unemployment rate goes negative and then what? You think there was a labor crisis when we lost over 2 million from the workforce with COVID? What the fuck do they think is going to happen in the face of losing another few million undocumented workers? We're going to self-sabotage ourselves into economic collapse and the electorate is cheering for it simply because said electorate thinks the other will be hurt far more than themselves. It's going to be Brexit on meth.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 11:13 AM on November 15, 2023 [29 favorites]
God forbid this abomination goes through, what happens after that? Undocumented people have always been an underclass which employers have used to suppress wages for the last century. The unemployment rate goes negative and then what? You think there was a labor crisis when we lost over 2 million from the workforce with COVID? What the fuck do they think is going to happen in the face of losing another few million undocumented workers? We're going to self-sabotage ourselves into economic collapse and the electorate is cheering for it simply because said electorate thinks the other will be hurt far more than themselves. It's going to be Brexit on meth.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 11:13 AM on November 15, 2023 [29 favorites]
Biden needs needs needs either to put a brake on the Netanyahu government or leave them to twist in the wind. That or hope there's a real war by late 2024 and hope that people don't want to change horses in mid-stream.
I cannot overstate the number of chronic democratic voters I have talked to who are either talking about staying home or at least becoming extremely disaffected over Israel. In Minneapolis, Muslim voters have been reliably left-leaning and Biden is going to lose them if he's still equivocating about Palestine. These are people who are seeing fellow Muslim civilians getting their heads blown off in Gaza, people whose colleagues and internet friends are posting about how they just lost ten cousins, etc. I know some radical Jewish community activists who - again, solid, lifelong, nose-holding democratic voters - are saying they can't vote for Biden while Palestine is getting flattened on the American nickel. These are politically active people who do a lot of GOTV and who have done GOTV for candidates they did not like or agree with, but this is different to them.
If you are not actively on twitter or bluesky or the right corners of TikTok, you're not seeing what is moving these voters, and I have to tell you that what is moving them is seeing, every day, a window into a human-created hell. When you're seeing every single day a new notification of someone's little child who was crushed in the rubble or shot from a tank, when you're seeing images of murdered corpses and video of teenagers getting gunned down in the street and video of someone's aged grandmother fleeing down the road during her second experience of Nakba, "Trump is worse" hits different, even if it is factually true. What I'm hearing is a lot of "we always vote for the Democrats and they use that as an excuse to move further right, and now it's progressed to actual genocide, do we have a stopping point".
Further it's a bad thing that Biden is building that wall.
I'm not taking a position on any of this at least right now - I'm just reporting what I'm seeing.
posted by Frowner at 11:18 AM on November 15, 2023 [49 favorites]
I cannot overstate the number of chronic democratic voters I have talked to who are either talking about staying home or at least becoming extremely disaffected over Israel. In Minneapolis, Muslim voters have been reliably left-leaning and Biden is going to lose them if he's still equivocating about Palestine. These are people who are seeing fellow Muslim civilians getting their heads blown off in Gaza, people whose colleagues and internet friends are posting about how they just lost ten cousins, etc. I know some radical Jewish community activists who - again, solid, lifelong, nose-holding democratic voters - are saying they can't vote for Biden while Palestine is getting flattened on the American nickel. These are politically active people who do a lot of GOTV and who have done GOTV for candidates they did not like or agree with, but this is different to them.
If you are not actively on twitter or bluesky or the right corners of TikTok, you're not seeing what is moving these voters, and I have to tell you that what is moving them is seeing, every day, a window into a human-created hell. When you're seeing every single day a new notification of someone's little child who was crushed in the rubble or shot from a tank, when you're seeing images of murdered corpses and video of teenagers getting gunned down in the street and video of someone's aged grandmother fleeing down the road during her second experience of Nakba, "Trump is worse" hits different, even if it is factually true. What I'm hearing is a lot of "we always vote for the Democrats and they use that as an excuse to move further right, and now it's progressed to actual genocide, do we have a stopping point".
Further it's a bad thing that Biden is building that wall.
I'm not taking a position on any of this at least right now - I'm just reporting what I'm seeing.
posted by Frowner at 11:18 AM on November 15, 2023 [49 favorites]
I'm not taking a position on any of this at least right now - I'm just reporting what I'm seeing.
It seems like your position is clear.
I'm not on tiktok, but when I see people who I am used to posting their usual takes upon every world crisis calling Biden "Genocide Joe" - that feels much worse. And if that helps usher in another Trump presidency, the US is done for.
posted by 41swans at 11:24 AM on November 15, 2023 [7 favorites]
It seems like your position is clear.
I'm not on tiktok, but when I see people who I am used to posting their usual takes upon every world crisis calling Biden "Genocide Joe" - that feels much worse. And if that helps usher in another Trump presidency, the US is done for.
posted by 41swans at 11:24 AM on November 15, 2023 [7 favorites]
The nursery near me which flies a Gadsden flag and an American flag and an Air Force flag and a cop flag above the wood chips and arbor vitae just added an Israeli flag, which made me stop and think for a bit.
posted by wenestvedt at 11:25 AM on November 15, 2023 [10 favorites]
posted by wenestvedt at 11:25 AM on November 15, 2023 [10 favorites]
Biden desperately has to become a good president, or he will not win the next election. And the democratic party needs to understand that "nobody knows how good a president he really is because he's just too gosh darned humble" feels to a lot of people like someone's pissing on their leg and telling them that it's raining.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 11:27 AM on November 15, 2023 [9 favorites]
posted by kittens for breakfast at 11:27 AM on November 15, 2023 [9 favorites]
Evangelicals believe that God requires extreme flattery in order for them to receive a direct reward and avoid terrible punishment. It leads to all kinds of organized actions to impress his presumed fragile ego. This idolatry is seen in autocratic nations, where the extreme punishment for not making an emotional display of one's narcissistic commitment to the leader is the same. The unforeseen danger is that in a police state it isn't the police who keep tabs, but the fanatical neighbors who've been watching for longer.
posted by Brian B. at 11:27 AM on November 15, 2023 [5 favorites]
posted by Brian B. at 11:27 AM on November 15, 2023 [5 favorites]
I just don't see how people like that think handing the car keys back to Trump is going to improve anything.
posted by The Card Cheat at 11:27 AM on November 15, 2023 [7 favorites]
posted by The Card Cheat at 11:27 AM on November 15, 2023 [7 favorites]
"Think" is the core of your failure to understand, here.
TFG supporters don't think.
TFG supporters know. They know, in a way that's stronger than anything reality can show them. His base is literally exhibiting mass psychosis. It's a cult.
posted by flabdablet at 11:36 AM on November 15, 2023 [20 favorites]
TFG supporters don't think.
TFG supporters know. They know, in a way that's stronger than anything reality can show them. His base is literally exhibiting mass psychosis. It's a cult.
posted by flabdablet at 11:36 AM on November 15, 2023 [20 favorites]
The nursery near me which flies a Gadsden flag and an American flag and an Air Force flag and a cop flag above the wood chips and arbor vitae just added an Israeli flag, which made me stop and think for a bit.
It's not really that hard to figure out: they're white supremacists who hate Muslims, and they didn't like the federal government forcing them to integrate their schools.
posted by AlSweigart at 11:36 AM on November 15, 2023 [12 favorites]
It's not really that hard to figure out: they're white supremacists who hate Muslims, and they didn't like the federal government forcing them to integrate their schools.
posted by AlSweigart at 11:36 AM on November 15, 2023 [12 favorites]
" The other is a nepo kid who has never, ever accomplished anything serious in his life (and no I don't count getting elected for president in the way that happened or being the star of a reality show as relevant),"
The kids pulled from their families at the border, the Iranian General assassinated by Trump, women's right to bodily autonomy and so much more would think otherwise. Our ability to determine the "rightness" of how someone "accomplished" (or whether that accomplishment is good or bad) has no effect on whether that "non-accomplishment" happened. It DID happen and if you're trying to say "not my president" fine, but he was still the president and this attitude might just be the same sort of thing that gets us with Trump 2025. It's almost as much ignoring reality as the opposition (not that it IS, ok maybe not even close to almost. that's a bit of hyperbole). But you know what I'm saying. There is a reality on the ground and it seems neither side is attempting to handle that. The Dems seem to cocksuredly believe they're just gonna waltz right in. That's what it looks like Biden believes. The same way Hillary did.
Frankly I think they want to run against Trump. They think the Trump brand is damaged, but looking at polls shows how not -true that is.
I think we can all agree that Trump is unacceptable. That we should not let that man near the reins of power ever again. But that doesn't excuse us to allow our sensibilities and moral outrage to ignore facts on the ground, and it's a year out, thank god - there is time. But this should be a slam dunk and it's not. You need to ask yourself WHY. (WE need to. I don't have an answer, but plugging our ears isn't the way - and I'm not saying "listen to the 'white working class' so-called nativist bullshit - but really astutely looking without our desires influencing what's on the ground.
Sorry I'm gonna stop replying on this because I feel like it's a bit of a derail from the main post. Or rather, the thrust should be how this is bigger than just Trump, and we need a longer term plan to handle this besides reactive "impeachment" attempts and possibly an inability to stop the man through the courts regardless of the clear dangers he presents to the Republic.
posted by symbioid at 11:40 AM on November 15, 2023 [1 favorite]
The kids pulled from their families at the border, the Iranian General assassinated by Trump, women's right to bodily autonomy and so much more would think otherwise. Our ability to determine the "rightness" of how someone "accomplished" (or whether that accomplishment is good or bad) has no effect on whether that "non-accomplishment" happened. It DID happen and if you're trying to say "not my president" fine, but he was still the president and this attitude might just be the same sort of thing that gets us with Trump 2025. It's almost as much ignoring reality as the opposition (not that it IS, ok maybe not even close to almost. that's a bit of hyperbole). But you know what I'm saying. There is a reality on the ground and it seems neither side is attempting to handle that. The Dems seem to cocksuredly believe they're just gonna waltz right in. That's what it looks like Biden believes. The same way Hillary did.
Frankly I think they want to run against Trump. They think the Trump brand is damaged, but looking at polls shows how not -true that is.
I think we can all agree that Trump is unacceptable. That we should not let that man near the reins of power ever again. But that doesn't excuse us to allow our sensibilities and moral outrage to ignore facts on the ground, and it's a year out, thank god - there is time. But this should be a slam dunk and it's not. You need to ask yourself WHY. (WE need to. I don't have an answer, but plugging our ears isn't the way - and I'm not saying "listen to the 'white working class' so-called nativist bullshit - but really astutely looking without our desires influencing what's on the ground.
Sorry I'm gonna stop replying on this because I feel like it's a bit of a derail from the main post. Or rather, the thrust should be how this is bigger than just Trump, and we need a longer term plan to handle this besides reactive "impeachment" attempts and possibly an inability to stop the man through the courts regardless of the clear dangers he presents to the Republic.
posted by symbioid at 11:40 AM on November 15, 2023 [1 favorite]
> "Think" is the core of your failure to understand, here.
I wasn't talking about TFG's supporters, I meant these Democratic voters who are so mad at Biden that they're either gonna switch to Trump or stay home.
posted by The Card Cheat at 11:48 AM on November 15, 2023 [4 favorites]
I wasn't talking about TFG's supporters, I meant these Democratic voters who are so mad at Biden that they're either gonna switch to Trump or stay home.
posted by The Card Cheat at 11:48 AM on November 15, 2023 [4 favorites]
Is there polling or an article that goes into why so many Americans, including previously strong democratic groups like Black and Hispanic voters, are buying into this? Do they not think it's true? Don't care about anything except the economy? Just last week the NYT was bemoaning the Trump vs Biden polls that showed Trump winning.
posted by hermanubis at 11:52 AM on November 15, 2023
posted by hermanubis at 11:52 AM on November 15, 2023
Well, for Latinx voters, one major cause is that after being bought by a right wing Mexican media conglomerate, the leading Spanish language broadcaster in the US is blatantly putting their thumb on the scales for TFG.
posted by NoxAeternum at 11:56 AM on November 15, 2023 [19 favorites]
posted by NoxAeternum at 11:56 AM on November 15, 2023 [19 favorites]
just added an Israeli flag, which made me stop and think for a bit
Dominionists believe the reestablishment of the nation of Israel is an impetus for the end times.
posted by The 10th Regiment of Foot at 11:56 AM on November 15, 2023 [13 favorites]
Dominionists believe the reestablishment of the nation of Israel is an impetus for the end times.
posted by The 10th Regiment of Foot at 11:56 AM on November 15, 2023 [13 favorites]
Put that fucker in the darkest dungeon the country has.
posted by GoblinHoney at 11:57 AM on November 15, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by GoblinHoney at 11:57 AM on November 15, 2023 [2 favorites]
What the fuck do they think is going to happen in the face of losing another few million undocumented workers?
If we go this far down the road, there will be a work release program of some kind, one that turns this cheap slave labor into free slave labor. Hell, multiple prisons already do it.
posted by Lentrohamsanin at 12:09 PM on November 15, 2023 [9 favorites]
If we go this far down the road, there will be a work release program of some kind, one that turns this cheap slave labor into free slave labor. Hell, multiple prisons already do it.
posted by Lentrohamsanin at 12:09 PM on November 15, 2023 [9 favorites]
I don’t under the sentiment that if Trump wins in 2024, revoking your citizenship is an option worth exercising. I’ve lived in Canada, NZ, England and Germany. These places are great to visit but they all have facists who are very vocal and are rampant in the political systems there as well.
How about staying in the US and doing something to offset the facists, unless you’re certain you will be safer somewhere else? Are we all able to leave if we don’t like me Trump as president? Obviously not.
posted by waving at 12:20 PM on November 15, 2023 [7 favorites]
How about staying in the US and doing something to offset the facists, unless you’re certain you will be safer somewhere else? Are we all able to leave if we don’t like me Trump as president? Obviously not.
posted by waving at 12:20 PM on November 15, 2023 [7 favorites]
I cannot overstate the number of chronic democratic voters I have talked to who are either talking about staying home or at least becoming extremely disaffected over Israel.
Yes. This is a real thing. Pretending that it is not, or that it is claimed only by pro-Palestinian/anti-Israeli/antisemitic/whatever people, is a bad idea. I, too, have heard & seen people talking about sitting 2024 out because of their dissatisfaction with the U.S. reaction.
Also -- I'm not a political scientist, but I know that "young people" are often passionate. Young cupcakeninja might well have been more heavily affected in his first vote by U.S. I/P involvement in the year before the election than he would have been by political events that happened back when he was age 10-14, assuming he'd been 18 during a voting year. (Hard to say, because that was a different time and pre-social media, and of course there are always newly eligible voters who don't vote.)
posted by cupcakeninja at 12:22 PM on November 15, 2023 [1 favorite]
Yes. This is a real thing. Pretending that it is not, or that it is claimed only by pro-Palestinian/anti-Israeli/antisemitic/whatever people, is a bad idea. I, too, have heard & seen people talking about sitting 2024 out because of their dissatisfaction with the U.S. reaction.
Also -- I'm not a political scientist, but I know that "young people" are often passionate. Young cupcakeninja might well have been more heavily affected in his first vote by U.S. I/P involvement in the year before the election than he would have been by political events that happened back when he was age 10-14, assuming he'd been 18 during a voting year. (Hard to say, because that was a different time and pre-social media, and of course there are always newly eligible voters who don't vote.)
posted by cupcakeninja at 12:22 PM on November 15, 2023 [1 favorite]
The nursery near me which flies a Gadsden flag and an American flag and an Air Force flag and a cop flag above the wood chips and arbor vitae just added an Israeli flag
I saw several during a roadtrip in northeast Iowa in 2021, which surprised me slightly at the time. Israel flag next to Trump banner. Just noting that this has a bit of a history.
Dominionists believe the reestablishment of the nation of Israel is an impetus for the end times.
Knowing people in rural northeast Iowa....yeah, this too.
posted by gimonca at 12:25 PM on November 15, 2023 [2 favorites]
I saw several during a roadtrip in northeast Iowa in 2021, which surprised me slightly at the time. Israel flag next to Trump banner. Just noting that this has a bit of a history.
Dominionists believe the reestablishment of the nation of Israel is an impetus for the end times.
Knowing people in rural northeast Iowa....yeah, this too.
posted by gimonca at 12:25 PM on November 15, 2023 [2 favorites]
Let's also bear in mind that since 2020* Trump has done basically nothing but campaign in one form or another. his rallies are campaigning, his email grifts are campaigning, his court appearances are opportunities to campaign.
Meanwhile, Biden has been governing. Now I'm not an idiot, many of his choices are just pandering to this group or that so he'll get reelected, which you could call a form of campaigning. But it's not like he's on the trail shouting his accomplishments for all to hear. And he has significant accomplishments; there's something on the list to appeal to pretty much everybody. You just don't hear about them, because outside of campaign season it's not news unless it pisses someone off.
Don't get me wrong, there are things Biden has done and things he's doing that I find appalling. Silver lining, it does make my conscience a bit lighter that I'm convinced on every single one of those issues that each of the Republican candidates would've handled it worse.
Every presidential election year since I've joined, I've seen us rehash the "We don't owe ____ our vote!" vs. "What part of 'the lesser evil' is unclear?" vs. "The lesser evil is actually pretty decent, y'all." debate. Hugs to the mods who are looking down the barrel of that tradition yet again (and sorry in advance if I take the bait ina moment several months of weakness).
But stepping back, let's not get hung up on current polls and current issues. We're still speeding up on the runway, we're certainly not pointed towards our destination yet.
* Actually since the 1940s... every waking moment of his existence is a desperate campaign to justify his sense of superiority to others, and quell his deep insecurities about himself.
posted by Riki tiki at 12:27 PM on November 15, 2023 [7 favorites]
Meanwhile, Biden has been governing. Now I'm not an idiot, many of his choices are just pandering to this group or that so he'll get reelected, which you could call a form of campaigning. But it's not like he's on the trail shouting his accomplishments for all to hear. And he has significant accomplishments; there's something on the list to appeal to pretty much everybody. You just don't hear about them, because outside of campaign season it's not news unless it pisses someone off.
Don't get me wrong, there are things Biden has done and things he's doing that I find appalling. Silver lining, it does make my conscience a bit lighter that I'm convinced on every single one of those issues that each of the Republican candidates would've handled it worse.
Every presidential election year since I've joined, I've seen us rehash the "We don't owe ____ our vote!" vs. "What part of 'the lesser evil' is unclear?" vs. "The lesser evil is actually pretty decent, y'all." debate. Hugs to the mods who are looking down the barrel of that tradition yet again (and sorry in advance if I take the bait in
But stepping back, let's not get hung up on current polls and current issues. We're still speeding up on the runway, we're certainly not pointed towards our destination yet.
* Actually since the 1940s... every waking moment of his existence is a desperate campaign to justify his sense of superiority to others, and quell his deep insecurities about himself.
posted by Riki tiki at 12:27 PM on November 15, 2023 [7 favorites]
TFG supporters know. They know, in a way that's stronger than anything reality can show them. His base is literally exhibiting mass psychosis. It's a cult. posted by flabdablet
Indeed. I'd say it's even worse than that. I feel it's more like the strongest physical addiction to a deadly drug I've ever seen. It is the incomparable euphoria of belonging, being morally 'right', absolutely certain, and on a crusade to enforce the will of your drug god by every means possible. Short of something horrible straight out of a Dracula movie, I cannot imagine the kind of intervention that could break it.
posted by zaixfeep at 12:45 PM on November 15, 2023 [6 favorites]
Indeed. I'd say it's even worse than that. I feel it's more like the strongest physical addiction to a deadly drug I've ever seen. It is the incomparable euphoria of belonging, being morally 'right', absolutely certain, and on a crusade to enforce the will of your drug god by every means possible. Short of something horrible straight out of a Dracula movie, I cannot imagine the kind of intervention that could break it.
posted by zaixfeep at 12:45 PM on November 15, 2023 [6 favorites]
Every presidential election year since I've joined, I've seen us rehash the "We don't owe ____ our vote!" vs. "What part of 'the lesser evil' is unclear?" vs. "The lesser evil is actually pretty decent, y'all." debate. Hugs to the mods who are looking down the barrel of that tradition yet again (and sorry in advance if I take the bait in a moment several months of weakness).
Dave Karpf had a good piece on elections , where he pointed out that they are where we determine whether we fight rearguard actions, or are able to push things forward.
posted by NoxAeternum at 12:49 PM on November 15, 2023 [5 favorites]
Dave Karpf had a good piece on elections , where he pointed out that they are where we determine whether we fight rearguard actions, or are able to push things forward.
posted by NoxAeternum at 12:49 PM on November 15, 2023 [5 favorites]
There's no way I'm not voting for Biden in 2024.
But I'm confused? angry? frustrated? that after everything that has happened, this is once again coming down to an election. Trump literally stole nuclear secrets and hid them in his bathroom. He conspired to interrupt the peaceful transfer of power. He unleashed an armed insurrection against the Capitol. And he gets a do-over?
Lecturing me about how the Constitution doesn't actually preclude Trump from running again (prove me wrong, 14th Amendment!) or reminding me that we have to remain eternally vigilant (vote harder!!!) doesn't provide any comfort. I feel like we didn't save democracy and send Trump packing in 2020 only for him to get a second swing in 2024.
It just feels so stupid, insane, and frightening to be in this moment in time.
I really wish those institutions that we saved in 2020 did a better job of protecting themselves.
posted by RonButNotStupid at 1:20 PM on November 15, 2023 [48 favorites]
But I'm confused? angry? frustrated? that after everything that has happened, this is once again coming down to an election. Trump literally stole nuclear secrets and hid them in his bathroom. He conspired to interrupt the peaceful transfer of power. He unleashed an armed insurrection against the Capitol. And he gets a do-over?
Lecturing me about how the Constitution doesn't actually preclude Trump from running again (prove me wrong, 14th Amendment!) or reminding me that we have to remain eternally vigilant (vote harder!!!) doesn't provide any comfort. I feel like we didn't save democracy and send Trump packing in 2020 only for him to get a second swing in 2024.
It just feels so stupid, insane, and frightening to be in this moment in time.
I really wish those institutions that we saved in 2020 did a better job of protecting themselves.
posted by RonButNotStupid at 1:20 PM on November 15, 2023 [48 favorites]
2020, after four years of TFG and pandemic, chaos and hate, 74 million Americans looked at that record and said, yes please, give us more. As a queer person, I think calling that a minority is a fantasy. Are people who vote for evil evil? Do they think they are voting for something other than hate? Does it matter? It's no secret that the Republican party wants to burn everything down and rule the ashes with an iron fist.
We can pretend that the pro Nazis are a minority, an aberration, a small section yelling too loud. But they aren't. They believe the propaganda, they drink the flavoraid, they double down on the rhetoric. I'm sure not every Republican is a billion percent behind the Nazi section, but.... They still enable it completely. In a winner take all electoral college system, they vote Nazi, wether they mean to or not. They endorse the cruelty, the suffering and deaths that will happen.
posted by Jacen at 1:26 PM on November 15, 2023 [12 favorites]
We can pretend that the pro Nazis are a minority, an aberration, a small section yelling too loud. But they aren't. They believe the propaganda, they drink the flavoraid, they double down on the rhetoric. I'm sure not every Republican is a billion percent behind the Nazi section, but.... They still enable it completely. In a winner take all electoral college system, they vote Nazi, wether they mean to or not. They endorse the cruelty, the suffering and deaths that will happen.
posted by Jacen at 1:26 PM on November 15, 2023 [12 favorites]
braksandwich, just submitted my comment.
posted by joannemerriam at 1:27 PM on November 15, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by joannemerriam at 1:27 PM on November 15, 2023 [2 favorites]
The calculus that Team Biden will continue to use is simple: if they take the slightest risk, if they stick their neck out for any particular cause or people, will they lose more potential Democratic votes from the middle than they'll lose from the left if they DON'T?
It's rarely a clear-cut, obvious answer.
It's also rarely the right question for any kind of leader to ask.
posted by delfin at 1:50 PM on November 15, 2023 [3 favorites]
It's rarely a clear-cut, obvious answer.
It's also rarely the right question for any kind of leader to ask.
posted by delfin at 1:50 PM on November 15, 2023 [3 favorites]
"Trump is worse" hits different, even if it is factually true. What I'm hearing is a lot of "we always vote for the Democrats and they use that as an excuse to move further right, and now it's progressed to actual genocide, do we have a stopping point".
Trump would absolutely do no different but at least he'd be more honest about it. I'm tired of this whole "we're asking Israel to stop, any time now, play nice" bullshit. Congrats, either you're lying or you're stupid and easily played. It's evil and weak and who wants that combo in their lives?
posted by kingdead at 1:55 PM on November 15, 2023 [1 favorite]
Trump would absolutely do no different but at least he'd be more honest about it. I'm tired of this whole "we're asking Israel to stop, any time now, play nice" bullshit. Congrats, either you're lying or you're stupid and easily played. It's evil and weak and who wants that combo in their lives?
posted by kingdead at 1:55 PM on November 15, 2023 [1 favorite]
God forbid this abomination goes through, what happens after that?
Given some of the history of US Immigration enforcement overreach, one of the things that would likely happen is that documented, US citizen Latino/as also get placed in the camps and/or deported, either out of pure racism, ignorance of the fact that eg. Puerto Ricans are US citizens, or being specifically targeted for their politics if they are left-leaning. Ditto Arab and Muslim Americans.
And because racists aren’t that bright often, that means other people who “look Mexican” or “look Muslim” will also get caught up in the detentions and deportations (eg. Native Americans/First Nations folks were also sometimes sent off to Japanese internment camps in the US/Canada during WWII) - which will include some Filipinos, Sikhs, Native Americans whose ancestors have lived in the region that is currently the US for waaaay longer than anyone doing the rounding up, etc.
Since they are planning to streamline the rounding up and deportation process, and given the scale at which they are planning this, opportunities for documented immigrants and US citizens to contest their treatment will be rare to nonexistent. More family separation seems highly likely.
And that’s the sort of system that easily extends to conveniently disappearing political opponents. In particular, while Trump seems to be taking his rhetoric straight from Hitler, Miller is from the branch of the alt right who are big fans of Pinochet, so I would expect these camps to look and function a lot like the ones in Chile under their dictatorship.
posted by eviemath at 2:00 PM on November 15, 2023 [13 favorites]
Given some of the history of US Immigration enforcement overreach, one of the things that would likely happen is that documented, US citizen Latino/as also get placed in the camps and/or deported, either out of pure racism, ignorance of the fact that eg. Puerto Ricans are US citizens, or being specifically targeted for their politics if they are left-leaning. Ditto Arab and Muslim Americans.
And because racists aren’t that bright often, that means other people who “look Mexican” or “look Muslim” will also get caught up in the detentions and deportations (eg. Native Americans/First Nations folks were also sometimes sent off to Japanese internment camps in the US/Canada during WWII) - which will include some Filipinos, Sikhs, Native Americans whose ancestors have lived in the region that is currently the US for waaaay longer than anyone doing the rounding up, etc.
Since they are planning to streamline the rounding up and deportation process, and given the scale at which they are planning this, opportunities for documented immigrants and US citizens to contest their treatment will be rare to nonexistent. More family separation seems highly likely.
And that’s the sort of system that easily extends to conveniently disappearing political opponents. In particular, while Trump seems to be taking his rhetoric straight from Hitler, Miller is from the branch of the alt right who are big fans of Pinochet, so I would expect these camps to look and function a lot like the ones in Chile under their dictatorship.
posted by eviemath at 2:00 PM on November 15, 2023 [13 favorites]
(There’s some irony in that given the US’ role in creating the brutal dictatorships in Chile and other South and Central American countries during the Cold War. But definitely not the sort of irony that could give one even a small bit of consolation.)
posted by eviemath at 2:02 PM on November 15, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by eviemath at 2:02 PM on November 15, 2023 [1 favorite]
Contractor Core Civic has also already engaged in forced labor practices in at least the Stewart Immigration Detention Center (the largest one in the US). So yeah, that seems a likely possibility in the fascists’ planned expanded detention camps.
posted by eviemath at 2:10 PM on November 15, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by eviemath at 2:10 PM on November 15, 2023 [4 favorites]
Overlord (song by Dirty Projectors)
Oh, fear is old
Please don't yell at the train, just get aboard
Oh, we go forth
Those who stay behind will be left on the shore
Who could afford not to be a part of what we're pushing toward?
Over-over-over-overlord
Over-over-over-overlord
Oh, overlord
Please don't be magnanimous, protect your neck
Oh, overlord
Marshal my desires to your call and beck
Oh, it's assured
Good outweighs bad as we approach perfection
Over-over-over-overlord
Over-over-over-overlord
How can you try to help me?
How can you try not to help me?
Help me (Help me), help me (Help me)
Help me (Help me), help me (Help me)
Oh, overlord
Take the ones below me and I'll hold the sword
Oh, overlord
Who could serve a master who sits over lord?
Over-over-over-overlord
Over-over-over-overlord
Over-over-over-overlord
Over-over-over-overlord
posted by Doleful Creature at 2:12 PM on November 15, 2023
Oh, fear is old
Please don't yell at the train, just get aboard
Oh, we go forth
Those who stay behind will be left on the shore
Who could afford not to be a part of what we're pushing toward?
Over-over-over-overlord
Over-over-over-overlord
Oh, overlord
Please don't be magnanimous, protect your neck
Oh, overlord
Marshal my desires to your call and beck
Oh, it's assured
Good outweighs bad as we approach perfection
Over-over-over-overlord
Over-over-over-overlord
How can you try to help me?
How can you try not to help me?
Help me (Help me), help me (Help me)
Help me (Help me), help me (Help me)
Oh, overlord
Take the ones below me and I'll hold the sword
Oh, overlord
Who could serve a master who sits over lord?
Over-over-over-overlord
Over-over-over-overlord
Over-over-over-overlord
Over-over-over-overlord
posted by Doleful Creature at 2:12 PM on November 15, 2023
At present, Biden is in the political hot seat because of the Hamas-Israeli war, the plight of Ukraine, and the sorry state of our southern border policies.
He cannot afford to waffle on support to Israel, and the Ukraine mess has wandered from the public eye except for the massive amount of money required to send them ammo and wrenches. Any waffling there must be so carefully thought out because we may be a hair's breadth of committing NATO to a full-on war with Russia (and the global fallout that implies). The situation at the Border has escaped the serious attention of every American president, possibly since Teddy Roosevelt, and he got a bit confused about whether it was in Cuba or the Philippines.
Biden is up for reelection. He has little political leeway to make about any of these issues if he wants to hang on to as many of the disparate members of his base as he can. All his decisions must be in line with his perceived political options. The GOP can easily hamstring any choice he makes that Trump doesn't approve of.
Hypothetically, if he tries to reign in Bebe he loses most Americans who don't see any more complexity in that awful mess than Israel's "right to exist." If he pushes too hard on aid to Ukraine, he'll likely get into a contest of brinkmanship with Putin. This is mud-wrestling with a pig. Putin is desperate and maybe crazy. Even the dwindling number of Americans who like the idea of supporting Ukraine are worried about a general war or are getting concerned about the drain on our military resources.
The Border situation is a whole other can of worms, the perils of which are many, and the solutions are all hypothetical. No band-aids will help. One idea may be to relieve some of the border state's burden by asking all states to help by providing a federally supported system of intake villages in all the states and turning our country into a nation that values the ideals behind the plaque on the statue at Ellis Island. (I'm just sayin'.) That's not going to happen. The mess at the Border is not Biden's fault, but the truth of it is that he hasn't done anything about it.
Historically our country's politics have followed that wonderful Bell Curve--a third wanted independence from England, a third didn't, and a third didn't give a shit one way or the other as long as they didn't run their armies through their crops or steal their livestock. A very few people on either side of the curve got hysterical about it, and some of them made it into the American government after it got rolling.
Actual voters' numbers in the coming national election will also fall along the Bell Curve in a similar manner. As others have mentioned upthread, whatever fence dwellers may exist will decide the outcome once they hop down from either side on election days.
Unless.
Trump is not what you might call an idea man. His notions seem straightforward, but he can't implement a workable plan. He needs people with talent to do that. Look back on his days in office to see how that worked out. He kept firing ethical people and hired lackeys, so he didn't do as much damage as he might have. His lackeys had little talent for the roles he gave them. This time, he has talent on deck like Miller, who is a good propagandist with a knack for talking to the wingnuts on the bottom rungs of Trump's base. He has talent like Mike Flynn, a trained, high-level counter-intelligence operator who knows how to put the supportive bones into Miller's ideas. In this case, outlying wingnuts will corral those of us on the central part of the Bell Curve, and we'll end up eating rats in one or another of those massive detention camps after our brethren from the south are shipped back homelands. The purification of the American bloodline will be well underway.
Okay, those are my notions. But the advent of down-channel organizations suggests that more has happened during the past five or six years than has come to light during these latest revelations. Those notions I just listed are only suppositions. I believe Trump and his minions are well-supplied with insurgent advice. Theirs is a slow-moving train, but it has an unfathomable momentum.
Suppose that half the GOP wants on this train, and the other half, though repelled by the impending demise of Democracy, are silenced by fear, both actual and implied. They are worried about their political future and/or having their houses shot up by those lower minions who believe they'll be welcomed on board the train when it finally pulls out of the station.
When you stop to realize that Trump hasn't campaigned a day since he was elected and notice that he doesn't even have to hold office to cripple our government, it may be clear that trying to scour up a few more Democrats for the general election may not be the heaviest lifting that needs doing.
posted by mule98J at 2:29 PM on November 15, 2023 [4 favorites]
He cannot afford to waffle on support to Israel, and the Ukraine mess has wandered from the public eye except for the massive amount of money required to send them ammo and wrenches. Any waffling there must be so carefully thought out because we may be a hair's breadth of committing NATO to a full-on war with Russia (and the global fallout that implies). The situation at the Border has escaped the serious attention of every American president, possibly since Teddy Roosevelt, and he got a bit confused about whether it was in Cuba or the Philippines.
Biden is up for reelection. He has little political leeway to make about any of these issues if he wants to hang on to as many of the disparate members of his base as he can. All his decisions must be in line with his perceived political options. The GOP can easily hamstring any choice he makes that Trump doesn't approve of.
Hypothetically, if he tries to reign in Bebe he loses most Americans who don't see any more complexity in that awful mess than Israel's "right to exist." If he pushes too hard on aid to Ukraine, he'll likely get into a contest of brinkmanship with Putin. This is mud-wrestling with a pig. Putin is desperate and maybe crazy. Even the dwindling number of Americans who like the idea of supporting Ukraine are worried about a general war or are getting concerned about the drain on our military resources.
The Border situation is a whole other can of worms, the perils of which are many, and the solutions are all hypothetical. No band-aids will help. One idea may be to relieve some of the border state's burden by asking all states to help by providing a federally supported system of intake villages in all the states and turning our country into a nation that values the ideals behind the plaque on the statue at Ellis Island. (I'm just sayin'.) That's not going to happen. The mess at the Border is not Biden's fault, but the truth of it is that he hasn't done anything about it.
Historically our country's politics have followed that wonderful Bell Curve--a third wanted independence from England, a third didn't, and a third didn't give a shit one way or the other as long as they didn't run their armies through their crops or steal their livestock. A very few people on either side of the curve got hysterical about it, and some of them made it into the American government after it got rolling.
Actual voters' numbers in the coming national election will also fall along the Bell Curve in a similar manner. As others have mentioned upthread, whatever fence dwellers may exist will decide the outcome once they hop down from either side on election days.
Unless.
Trump is not what you might call an idea man. His notions seem straightforward, but he can't implement a workable plan. He needs people with talent to do that. Look back on his days in office to see how that worked out. He kept firing ethical people and hired lackeys, so he didn't do as much damage as he might have. His lackeys had little talent for the roles he gave them. This time, he has talent on deck like Miller, who is a good propagandist with a knack for talking to the wingnuts on the bottom rungs of Trump's base. He has talent like Mike Flynn, a trained, high-level counter-intelligence operator who knows how to put the supportive bones into Miller's ideas. In this case, outlying wingnuts will corral those of us on the central part of the Bell Curve, and we'll end up eating rats in one or another of those massive detention camps after our brethren from the south are shipped back homelands. The purification of the American bloodline will be well underway.
Okay, those are my notions. But the advent of down-channel organizations suggests that more has happened during the past five or six years than has come to light during these latest revelations. Those notions I just listed are only suppositions. I believe Trump and his minions are well-supplied with insurgent advice. Theirs is a slow-moving train, but it has an unfathomable momentum.
Suppose that half the GOP wants on this train, and the other half, though repelled by the impending demise of Democracy, are silenced by fear, both actual and implied. They are worried about their political future and/or having their houses shot up by those lower minions who believe they'll be welcomed on board the train when it finally pulls out of the station.
When you stop to realize that Trump hasn't campaigned a day since he was elected and notice that he doesn't even have to hold office to cripple our government, it may be clear that trying to scour up a few more Democrats for the general election may not be the heaviest lifting that needs doing.
posted by mule98J at 2:29 PM on November 15, 2023 [4 favorites]
Hypothetically, if he tries to reign in Bebe he loses most Americans who don't see any more complexity in that awful mess than Israel's "right to exist."
Public opinion is rapidly shifting. Recent Reuters polling shows that only 32% of Americans want the US to support Israel in its current actions. Down from 41% just a month ago. Over 40% are against sending Israel weapons. Over 2/3 of Americans — 3/4 of democrats and 1/2 of republicans surveyed — support a ceasefire. Hundreds of Biden’s own staff have spoken out in favor of restraint and a ceasefire. Macron even supports a ceasefire ffs. Biden is out of step with the American people and, increasingly, the world on this. And Israel has made it clear they don’t plan to stop the ethnic cleansing and destruction of life-giving infrastructure anytime soon.
posted by ohneat at 2:48 PM on November 15, 2023 [19 favorites]
Public opinion is rapidly shifting. Recent Reuters polling shows that only 32% of Americans want the US to support Israel in its current actions. Down from 41% just a month ago. Over 40% are against sending Israel weapons. Over 2/3 of Americans — 3/4 of democrats and 1/2 of republicans surveyed — support a ceasefire. Hundreds of Biden’s own staff have spoken out in favor of restraint and a ceasefire. Macron even supports a ceasefire ffs. Biden is out of step with the American people and, increasingly, the world on this. And Israel has made it clear they don’t plan to stop the ethnic cleansing and destruction of life-giving infrastructure anytime soon.
posted by ohneat at 2:48 PM on November 15, 2023 [19 favorites]
The next priority will be the Department of Homeland Security and the border, with plans to erect sprawling detention camps, "scour the country for unauthorized immigrants"
The Trump administration's "zero tolerance" immigration policy separated over 5,000 children from their parents, with no tracking process or records that would allow them to be reunited (PBS, 8/13/22); last month: Biden settles lawsuit over Trump family separation border policy (Courthouse News 10/16/23) Monday's settlement in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of California, if finalized by a federal judge, will not only make it more difficult for future administrations to reenact Trump’s family separation policy, but it will also fund efforts to reunite some 4,500 to 5,000 children separated by the policy with their parents in the U.S. Settlement embed.
Together.gov, a registry "intended for families who were separated between January 20, 2017 - January 20, 2021 at the U.S.-Mexico border by the U.S. government" notes: "Information submitted through this website will be used to confirm qualification eligibility for reunification with Task Force support. Individuals who register on this website will not be referred to ICE for removal from the United States based solely on information provided to the Task Force through this website. The information may be shared with national security and law enforcement agencies, including ICE and CBP, for purposes other than removal, such as to identify or prevent fraudulent claims, for national security purposes, or for the investigation or prosecution of a criminal offense." (Bolding mine.)
February 2023: The NYT found migrant children working factory jobs.
April 2023: Republicans allege that Biden's Health and Human Services lost contact with more than 85,000 children, within a few weeks of placement with poorly-vetted sponsors.
posted by Iris Gambol at 3:09 PM on November 15, 2023 [5 favorites]
The Trump administration's "zero tolerance" immigration policy separated over 5,000 children from their parents, with no tracking process or records that would allow them to be reunited (PBS, 8/13/22); last month: Biden settles lawsuit over Trump family separation border policy (Courthouse News 10/16/23) Monday's settlement in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of California, if finalized by a federal judge, will not only make it more difficult for future administrations to reenact Trump’s family separation policy, but it will also fund efforts to reunite some 4,500 to 5,000 children separated by the policy with their parents in the U.S. Settlement embed.
Together.gov, a registry "intended for families who were separated between January 20, 2017 - January 20, 2021 at the U.S.-Mexico border by the U.S. government" notes: "Information submitted through this website will be used to confirm qualification eligibility for reunification with Task Force support. Individuals who register on this website will not be referred to ICE for removal from the United States based solely on information provided to the Task Force through this website. The information may be shared with national security and law enforcement agencies, including ICE and CBP, for purposes other than removal, such as to identify or prevent fraudulent claims, for national security purposes, or for the investigation or prosecution of a criminal offense." (Bolding mine.)
February 2023: The NYT found migrant children working factory jobs.
April 2023: Republicans allege that Biden's Health and Human Services lost contact with more than 85,000 children, within a few weeks of placement with poorly-vetted sponsors.
posted by Iris Gambol at 3:09 PM on November 15, 2023 [5 favorites]
The Border situation is a whole other can of worms, the perils of which are many, and the solutions are all hypothetical. No band-aids will help. One idea may be to relieve some of the border state's burden by asking all states to help by providing a federally supported system of intake villages in all the states and turning our country into a nation that values the ideals behind the plaque on the statue at Ellis Island. (I'm just sayin'.)
Hilariously, Ellis Island handled more immigrants per month for 60 straight years than even the border crisis cheerleaders estimate are crossing.
posted by The_Vegetables at 3:20 PM on November 15, 2023 [13 favorites]
Hilariously, Ellis Island handled more immigrants per month for 60 straight years than even the border crisis cheerleaders estimate are crossing.
posted by The_Vegetables at 3:20 PM on November 15, 2023 [13 favorites]
That statue with that plaque isn't at Ellis Island.
posted by hippybear at 3:22 PM on November 15, 2023 [5 favorites]
posted by hippybear at 3:22 PM on November 15, 2023 [5 favorites]
From the article: The people leading these efforts aren't figures like Rudy Giuliani. They're smart, experienced people
I'm still skeptical. It sounds like a plan to fire and replace over 50,000 people, with the associated HR, relocating, what have you. Further down in the article, it says they'd be hiring based on conservative shibboleths, not on actual skills.
My speculation about this scenario is that on one hand, you would not get a well-oiled authoritarian regime out of this, one capable of executing on its plans across all 50 states. On the other hand, I'd expect general disorder from a bureaucracy run by overweening incompetence, possibly a complete systems collapse. At that point, the true believers might fall back on the old Grover Norquist blurb about "drowning government in the bathtub", and declare victory among the ruins.
posted by gimonca at 3:28 PM on November 15, 2023 [10 favorites]
I'm still skeptical. It sounds like a plan to fire and replace over 50,000 people, with the associated HR, relocating, what have you. Further down in the article, it says they'd be hiring based on conservative shibboleths, not on actual skills.
My speculation about this scenario is that on one hand, you would not get a well-oiled authoritarian regime out of this, one capable of executing on its plans across all 50 states. On the other hand, I'd expect general disorder from a bureaucracy run by overweening incompetence, possibly a complete systems collapse. At that point, the true believers might fall back on the old Grover Norquist blurb about "drowning government in the bathtub", and declare victory among the ruins.
posted by gimonca at 3:28 PM on November 15, 2023 [10 favorites]
I'm almost, but not quite, one of the people who is not able to bring myself to vote for Biden. Donald Trump is bad enough that I am going to vote for Biden but it's a struggle because of the US's support of Israel and what's happening in Palestine (being vague so as not to derail too much) and I have friends whose consciences simply will not let them pull the metaphorical lever for Joe Biden after everything that's happened in the past month and I can't blame them. I'm also trans and sick of being used as a shield for Biden and his policies or lectured on how it's my responsibility to vote for Biden because of what he's done for people like me. I'm sick of being scolded now -- a year before the election! -- by people who are already blaming the left for a loss that hasn't even happened. I see a LOT of vitriol directed at putative leftists who aren't voting (and, again, I am voting so please don't come at me on this) and people demanding that trans and other marginalized people vote for their preferred candidate and it is exhausting. I'm going to vote for Joe Biden because Trump is enough worse but it breaks my heart that this is the best we can do and that I will be filling in a ballot for someone I've spent the last month protesting because he is supporting something horrific and it's also making me wonder, you know, what is the line? Is there something that would cross it and make me not vote for the Democrats? If not am I just playing a team sport? If there is a line how close are we to crossing it? I'm going to vote for Biden because the alternative is worse and I am really not interested in being lectured further on how actually Biden is great or how I owe it to X group to vote for him or how it's a moral obligation to vote blue no matter who or whatever. He's got my vote but the whole thing makes me sick.
posted by an octopus IRL at 3:36 PM on November 15, 2023 [17 favorites]
posted by an octopus IRL at 3:36 PM on November 15, 2023 [17 favorites]
What I've found interesting is just how few 'parallel' fascist institutions have been created this time 'round. DeSantis attempted some (such as paramilitary militias answering to him). 'Homeschooling' has been an attempt for education I guess, but again it's been marginal. Parallel judicial system? Nope, though they've made inroads appointing fascists.
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 3:41 PM on November 15, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 3:41 PM on November 15, 2023 [1 favorite]
The election is a year away. I'm not super happy with where we are, and a democrat loss will equal disaster. I'm just not overly concerned at this point. Polls are meaningless now. We have 12 months to go. GOP extremism is not popular in recent elections, not by a long shot.
If I didn't vote every time there was no candidate I was happy about? I never would have voted, ever. Personally, I have never seen a politician that I would rabidly support. Period. I vote for the best realistic outcome. I don't see why that's such a hard pill for people to swallow.
Politics is the art of the possible. Vote for the best possible outcome, not the "best" person, because that's a sucker's game.
posted by SoberHighland at 4:03 PM on November 15, 2023 [18 favorites]
If I didn't vote every time there was no candidate I was happy about? I never would have voted, ever. Personally, I have never seen a politician that I would rabidly support. Period. I vote for the best realistic outcome. I don't see why that's such a hard pill for people to swallow.
Politics is the art of the possible. Vote for the best possible outcome, not the "best" person, because that's a sucker's game.
posted by SoberHighland at 4:03 PM on November 15, 2023 [18 favorites]
it's a moral obligation to vote blue no matter who or whatever. He's got my vote but the whole thing makes me sick.
we're constantly told that we have to pressure our elected representatives, which is true, but the problem is:
- if we pressure them before the election, we're depressing the turnout and refusing to see the good
- if we pressure after the election, we're distracting them from the job of governance and their agenda and so ungrateful
- if we pressure in between elections, we're just too dumb to understand that the president can't do what we want him to, and we're being childlike and spoiled brats
it's basically like how there's never any good time to talk about gun control because we're just politicizing things
anyway. fuck biden.
anyone remember the site "john kerry is a douchebag but i'm voting for him anyway"? basically the same. throw your vote away into the deep blue sea because it's the lesser of two evils and the backsliding is slower then
posted by i used to be someone else at 4:06 PM on November 15, 2023 [8 favorites]
we're constantly told that we have to pressure our elected representatives, which is true, but the problem is:
- if we pressure them before the election, we're depressing the turnout and refusing to see the good
- if we pressure after the election, we're distracting them from the job of governance and their agenda and so ungrateful
- if we pressure in between elections, we're just too dumb to understand that the president can't do what we want him to, and we're being childlike and spoiled brats
it's basically like how there's never any good time to talk about gun control because we're just politicizing things
anyway. fuck biden.
anyone remember the site "john kerry is a douchebag but i'm voting for him anyway"? basically the same. throw your vote away into the deep blue sea because it's the lesser of two evils and the backsliding is slower then
posted by i used to be someone else at 4:06 PM on November 15, 2023 [8 favorites]
The worst thing about this is that, even if Trump loses the next election, whoever wins will have one hand tied behind their back because so many of the people needed to actually get things done will actively oppose getting things done. No matter the election result, Trump is going to get his 'revenge term' one way or another.
posted by dg at 4:18 PM on November 15, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by dg at 4:18 PM on November 15, 2023 [2 favorites]
I think Biden is going to narrowly lose in 2024 because his support with younger voters is just going to evaporate.
Backing Israeli genocide, restarting student loan payments, and doing nothing about sky-rocketing housing costs are all going to sink him with voters under 35.
posted by zymil at 4:44 PM on November 15, 2023 [4 favorites]
Backing Israeli genocide, restarting student loan payments, and doing nothing about sky-rocketing housing costs are all going to sink him with voters under 35.
posted by zymil at 4:44 PM on November 15, 2023 [4 favorites]
Of course, what will actually happen when they start summarily firing tens of thousands of federal workers is that many, many systems that Heritage Foundation / Federalist Society flaks aren't cognizant of and don't care about, but turn out to be essential to the functioning of various aspects of US life, will begin to fail.
The GOP can't govern, only loot, and we're headed for a United States of Mississippi if this idiocy comes to pass.
But honestly, that may be what it finally takes to wake a plurality of Americans up - widespread, intentional failure of the government functions they rely on, klieg-lit kleptocracy, ham-fisted, real deal repression of anyone not stupid, cowed or venal enough to fall in line.
posted by ryanshepard at 4:56 PM on November 15, 2023 [9 favorites]
The GOP can't govern, only loot, and we're headed for a United States of Mississippi if this idiocy comes to pass.
But honestly, that may be what it finally takes to wake a plurality of Americans up - widespread, intentional failure of the government functions they rely on, klieg-lit kleptocracy, ham-fisted, real deal repression of anyone not stupid, cowed or venal enough to fall in line.
posted by ryanshepard at 4:56 PM on November 15, 2023 [9 favorites]
...even if Trump loses the next election, whoever wins will have one hand tied behind their back because so many of the people needed to actually get things done will actively oppose getting things done. No matter the election result, Trump is going to get his 'revenge term' one way or another.
And this is different from the current situation how, exactly?
posted by Thorzdad at 5:00 PM on November 15, 2023 [3 favorites]
And this is different from the current situation how, exactly?
posted by Thorzdad at 5:00 PM on November 15, 2023 [3 favorites]
These people are nuts.
Trump only wins if the economy is deep in the dumps, or Biden turns his back on Israel. The first is unlikely, the last is impossible. None of this revolutionary conspiracy stuff matters.
And if Trump wins, Jared and Ivanka bring the old crew right away in again. Good for oil and gas leases, but there ain’t going to be any deportations or mass firings. Pathetic they even think so.
posted by MattD at 5:20 PM on November 15, 2023 [2 favorites]
Trump only wins if the economy is deep in the dumps, or Biden turns his back on Israel. The first is unlikely, the last is impossible. None of this revolutionary conspiracy stuff matters.
And if Trump wins, Jared and Ivanka bring the old crew right away in again. Good for oil and gas leases, but there ain’t going to be any deportations or mass firings. Pathetic they even think so.
posted by MattD at 5:20 PM on November 15, 2023 [2 favorites]
For some reason I keep opening this thread. Don’t be me. It won’t solve any of your problems unless you believe one of your problems is that you just aren’t getting sucked fast enough into a whirlpool of despair.
posted by Glinn at 5:30 PM on November 15, 2023 [16 favorites]
posted by Glinn at 5:30 PM on November 15, 2023 [16 favorites]
Trump only wins if the economy is deep in the dumps, or Biden turns his back on Israel.
As I implied earlier, Trump also wins if Biden, who is 80, dies before the election. A November surprise for the ages.
80-year-olds die pretty often, just because, and I doubt that Harris wins if she becomes the nominee.
To be fair, Trump is also old, and statistically just as likely to die before the election. But it still feels like Russian roulette.
I agree that the answer is to avoid the whirlpool of despair and/or scream at the sky. But when one gets this close to the precipice (and seemingly closer by the minute), it's natural to freak out a little.
posted by swift at 5:38 PM on November 15, 2023 [6 favorites]
As I implied earlier, Trump also wins if Biden, who is 80, dies before the election. A November surprise for the ages.
80-year-olds die pretty often, just because, and I doubt that Harris wins if she becomes the nominee.
To be fair, Trump is also old, and statistically just as likely to die before the election. But it still feels like Russian roulette.
I agree that the answer is to avoid the whirlpool of despair and/or scream at the sky. But when one gets this close to the precipice (and seemingly closer by the minute), it's natural to freak out a little.
posted by swift at 5:38 PM on November 15, 2023 [6 favorites]
I disliked Biden at the beginning, but honestly, during the last three years has it been Biden that's been standing in the way of progress or dialing things back - with the exception of the current Israel-Palestine Crisis. And I have a lot more faith that he'll respond to public opinion on the matter than Trump.
And his administration has had to deal with an absolutely stupid amount of stuff - COVID, insurrection, monkeypox, withdrawing from Afghanistan, Russia trying to take over Ukraine and the resulting economic fallout... and apart from inflation things are pretty.. boring?
And the big thing you can do about inflation is tax the excess profits, take money out of the system... and congress is the one controlling the purse strings.
So I'll focus on the down ballot stuff that actually matters and gladly through a vote the old man's way.
And if the situation in this country somehow gets to the point, politically, where he's vetoing stuff I like rather than stuff I hate, then I'll be saying 'fuck Biden' too. But I'll also be secretly really relieved, because that means congress and the courts are no longer the ones standing in the way of a better country.
posted by Zalzidrax at 5:40 PM on November 15, 2023 [2 favorites]
And his administration has had to deal with an absolutely stupid amount of stuff - COVID, insurrection, monkeypox, withdrawing from Afghanistan, Russia trying to take over Ukraine and the resulting economic fallout... and apart from inflation things are pretty.. boring?
And the big thing you can do about inflation is tax the excess profits, take money out of the system... and congress is the one controlling the purse strings.
So I'll focus on the down ballot stuff that actually matters and gladly through a vote the old man's way.
And if the situation in this country somehow gets to the point, politically, where he's vetoing stuff I like rather than stuff I hate, then I'll be saying 'fuck Biden' too. But I'll also be secretly really relieved, because that means congress and the courts are no longer the ones standing in the way of a better country.
posted by Zalzidrax at 5:40 PM on November 15, 2023 [2 favorites]
Trump is going to do to America what Musk has done to Twitter. Anyone who doesn't see this is blind. I'm about as pro-Palestine as a non-Palestinian can be but I'd still vote for him if I was an American. Biden certainly behaves pro-Israel (every President in my lifetime has), but I don't think in his heart he's anti-Palestine, whereas I don't think it's much of an exaggeration to say that Trump does not even know what Palestine is. People say he's anti-Ukraine (and he is), but at least he was aware of it existing before becoming President.
To vote Trump is a colossal mistake only marginally worse than not voting at all.
posted by dobbs at 5:49 PM on November 15, 2023 [13 favorites]
To vote Trump is a colossal mistake only marginally worse than not voting at all.
posted by dobbs at 5:49 PM on November 15, 2023 [13 favorites]
Nobody here is considering voting Trump.
posted by Gadarene at 5:51 PM on November 15, 2023 [5 favorites]
posted by Gadarene at 5:51 PM on November 15, 2023 [5 favorites]
I can't tell if I'm more afraid of what happens if Trump wins the election or what happens if he doesn't.
posted by nickmark at 6:15 PM on November 15, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by nickmark at 6:15 PM on November 15, 2023 [4 favorites]
There is this sense that it's okay to overstate the threat that Trump poses, because (somehow) it didn't get stated enough last time and look what happened. The 1-in-4 figure for voters given above, even if it's not literally or practically true, given the events of 2016, the consequences of that misstatement are hugely less than an equivalent misstatement in the other direction.
But such exaggeration does have consequences. They can create a sense of futility, when our efforts right now are far from futile. Trump and the Republicans' horrible agenda can be stopped. Now is when we should be thinking of how to stop it. We don't have to put the chimp back behind the wheel, especially since we're still recovering from the damage the last time the chimp was there!
posted by JHarris at 6:26 PM on November 15, 2023 [12 favorites]
But such exaggeration does have consequences. They can create a sense of futility, when our efforts right now are far from futile. Trump and the Republicans' horrible agenda can be stopped. Now is when we should be thinking of how to stop it. We don't have to put the chimp back behind the wheel, especially since we're still recovering from the damage the last time the chimp was there!
posted by JHarris at 6:26 PM on November 15, 2023 [12 favorites]
I can't tell if I'm more afraid of what happens if Trump wins the election or what happens if he doesn't.
The difference is between whether the Democrats are in charge when his supporters have their tantrum, or whether the tantrum havers will be in charge. It's definitely better if he doesn't win, in every universe.
posted by JHarris at 6:29 PM on November 15, 2023 [24 favorites]
The difference is between whether the Democrats are in charge when his supporters have their tantrum, or whether the tantrum havers will be in charge. It's definitely better if he doesn't win, in every universe.
posted by JHarris at 6:29 PM on November 15, 2023 [24 favorites]
Trump only wins if the economy is deep in the dumps, or Biden turns his back on Israel
LOL, what? Biden's support for Israel has already sunk him in Michigan by basically wiping out the Muslim voter support he needs to win, and is not popular with Democratic voters, 80% of whom want a ceasefire. And just tonight cops in DC were pepper spraying peaceful protesters outside DNC HQ, in scenes that are very Chicago 1968.
posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 6:42 PM on November 15, 2023 [10 favorites]
Metafilter is basically the Jim Cramer of predicting Joe Biden's electoral chances. Last time there was basically embarrassment for Joe that he was even running right up until he curb-stomped the rest of the field the first primary that wasn't just mostly rural white people (South Carolina).
posted by Back At It Again At Krispy Kreme at 7:33 PM on November 15, 2023 [15 favorites]
posted by Back At It Again At Krispy Kreme at 7:33 PM on November 15, 2023 [15 favorites]
I don't think it's scolding to be honest about the way our elections work. I'm seeing people say that Biden shouldn't run but they can't name anyone else to replace him--everyone has flaws.
I agree that Biden needs to vocally show more support for Palestinians. But when the argument feels like "you must be a single issue voter and it must be for Palestine," frankly I don't think is going to sustain or last for another year for the general US public.
posted by girlmightlive at 9:01 PM on November 15, 2023 [2 favorites]
I agree that Biden needs to vocally show more support for Palestinians. But when the argument feels like "you must be a single issue voter and it must be for Palestine," frankly I don't think is going to sustain or last for another year for the general US public.
posted by girlmightlive at 9:01 PM on November 15, 2023 [2 favorites]
I submit that people who get all hell no Biden because he won't take a definite side for the Palestinians should look at what his probable opponent would do in office.
posted by JHarris at 10:09 PM on November 15, 2023 [14 favorites]
posted by JHarris at 10:09 PM on November 15, 2023 [14 favorites]
(Which, to be clear, isn't to suggest they aren't right to be disgusted. I'm sympathetic. But this business of pretending not voting for the last-bad candidate isn't a half-vote for the most-bad one is part of what got us Trump in 2016.)
posted by JHarris at 10:16 PM on November 15, 2023 [8 favorites]
posted by JHarris at 10:16 PM on November 15, 2023 [8 favorites]
Indeed, jharris. Trump is on record as wanting to repeal and revoke birthright citizenship. It is possible that if he wins, American Muslims will find themselves rounded up and loaded onto jets out of the US (or worse) even if you were born here.
posted by zaixfeep at 11:00 PM on November 15, 2023 [19 favorites]
posted by zaixfeep at 11:00 PM on November 15, 2023 [19 favorites]
In the 2002 French presidential election, there was a slogan: Votez escroc, pas facho -- vote for the crook, not the fascist. The crook, Jaques Chirac, won in a landslide.
In the 2024 US presidential election the choice is between a competent politician who is not a crook and a fascist who is a crook. It should be an easy choice, regardless of who the not-crook is. I know it's not that simple in the US, but it is worth thinking about.
posted by mumimor at 11:37 PM on November 15, 2023 [23 favorites]
In the 2024 US presidential election the choice is between a competent politician who is not a crook and a fascist who is a crook. It should be an easy choice, regardless of who the not-crook is. I know it's not that simple in the US, but it is worth thinking about.
posted by mumimor at 11:37 PM on November 15, 2023 [23 favorites]
In 1991 the famously corrupt Edwin Edwards won the Louisiana gubernatorial election against Grand Dragon of the KKK David Duke. There were hugely popular unofficial bumperstickers saying "Vote for the crook. It's important."
posted by brundlefly at 12:26 AM on November 16, 2023 [13 favorites]
posted by brundlefly at 12:26 AM on November 16, 2023 [13 favorites]
It is possible that if he wins, American Muslims will find themselves rounded up and loaded onto jets out of the US (or worse) even if you were born here.
A number of Republicans — including presidential candidates — are already on record calling for genocide. They're probably not going to waste time with jets and will go straight to (death) camps, given the means and opportunity. That might have been hyperbole about Republicans before Trump, but not after J6 and definitely not after last month.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 2:03 AM on November 16, 2023 [5 favorites]
A number of Republicans — including presidential candidates — are already on record calling for genocide. They're probably not going to waste time with jets and will go straight to (death) camps, given the means and opportunity. That might have been hyperbole about Republicans before Trump, but not after J6 and definitely not after last month.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 2:03 AM on November 16, 2023 [5 favorites]
> is tuberville really stalling hundreds of military promotions because of abortions? or because they want to be able to advance their preferred officers to command if trump gets elected again, officers who won't refuse to enforce a dicator's orders.
@lindyli: "Tuberville's military block is NOT about abortion. He doesn't actually give a damn about babies. It's just an excuse to keep the 376 positions open for his master Trump. It's just a cover story to damage the U.S. & make Biden look bad AND a continuation of Trump's terrorist coup."
> I'm seeing people say that Biden shouldn't run but they can't name anyone else to replace him--everyone has flaws.
fwiw...
Biden shouldn't run. The Democratic field is stronger than you think: "the evidence suggests Biden could win an election next year if anti-Trumpism voters mobilize as they did in 2018, 2020, 2022 and this year, particularly if Trump himself is the GOP nominee. But Biden's low poll numbers and age make him a weaker candidate than, say, [Kentucky Gov. Andy] Beshear, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan or another younger Democrat would be. This is a view shared by some Democratic campaign consultants I talk to, even as they are wary of criticizing their party's leader in public." (original title, btw: Biden could win. Democrats should still consider other 2024 candidates.)
@lindyli: "Tuberville's military block is NOT about abortion. He doesn't actually give a damn about babies. It's just an excuse to keep the 376 positions open for his master Trump. It's just a cover story to damage the U.S. & make Biden look bad AND a continuation of Trump's terrorist coup."
> I'm seeing people say that Biden shouldn't run but they can't name anyone else to replace him--everyone has flaws.
fwiw...
Biden shouldn't run. The Democratic field is stronger than you think: "the evidence suggests Biden could win an election next year if anti-Trumpism voters mobilize as they did in 2018, 2020, 2022 and this year, particularly if Trump himself is the GOP nominee. But Biden's low poll numbers and age make him a weaker candidate than, say, [Kentucky Gov. Andy] Beshear, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan or another younger Democrat would be. This is a view shared by some Democratic campaign consultants I talk to, even as they are wary of criticizing their party's leader in public." (original title, btw: Biden could win. Democrats should still consider other 2024 candidates.)
I would still consider Biden a narrow favorite over Trump, particularly if the former president is convicted of some of the dozens of charges against him. But if Trump isn’t the GOP nominee, a Biden race against any other Republican would be very tough. Biden’s best and perhaps only winning message will be, “I am not Trump.” In contrast, Whitmer or Beshear could make a broader case for themselves against, say, Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida or former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley.posted by kliuless at 5:26 AM on November 16, 2023 [6 favorites]
I think it’s generally understood that a Biden 2024 campaign will be a difficult lift for the Democratic Party. But there are two obvious potential challenges if he bows out: a primary that divides the party and hobbles it before the general election, or a primary that anoints an even-weaker candidate.
Neither of those scenarios is particularly likely. In recent elections, the party with the more fractious presidential primary (Republicans in 2000, Democrats in 2008, Republicans in 2016, Democrats in 2020) has won in the general election more times than it lost (Democrats in 2004, Republicans in 2012). An incumbent president is an asset — if that incumbent president isn’t extremely unpopular, as was the case in 2004 and 2012 but not 2020.
I seriously doubt a Democratic primary results in a candidate worse positioned than Biden. Even Vice President Harris, about as unpopular as Biden, did slightly better than him in matchups against Trump in recent New York Times-Siena College polls. Whitmer, Beshear, Govs. J.B. Pritzker of Illinois and Roy Cooper of North Carolina, Sens. Cory Booker of New Jersey, Robert P. Casey Jr. of Pennsylvania, Mark Kelly of Arizona, Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota and Raphael G. Warnock of Georgia — the Democratic bench is full of people with strong recent electoral performances.
But Biden's low poll numbers and age make him a weaker candidate than, say, [Kentucky Gov. Andy] Beshear, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan or another younger Democrat would be.
However....are Beshear or Whitmer going to run? Because otherwise articles like that are coming across as what-ifs or woulda-coulda-shoulda's.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 5:29 AM on November 16, 2023 [1 favorite]
However....are Beshear or Whitmer going to run? Because otherwise articles like that are coming across as what-ifs or woulda-coulda-shoulda's.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 5:29 AM on November 16, 2023 [1 favorite]
I'm seeing people say that Biden shouldn't run but they can't name anyone else to replace him--everyone has flaws.
Unless Biden bows out, no one will put themselves forth, imo.
To me, strongest ticket would be Newsom and Ocasio-Cortez. I'm sure the former has the White House in mind for the future whereas I doubt AOC would be keen at all. But that would be a hell of a ticket.
posted by dobbs at 5:42 AM on November 16, 2023
Unless Biden bows out, no one will put themselves forth, imo.
To me, strongest ticket would be Newsom and Ocasio-Cortez. I'm sure the former has the White House in mind for the future whereas I doubt AOC would be keen at all. But that would be a hell of a ticket.
posted by dobbs at 5:42 AM on November 16, 2023
How about staying in the US and doing something to offset the facists, unless you’re certain you will be safer somewhere else? Are we all able to leave if we don’t like me Trump as president? Obviously not.
How about you don't tell people what they should and should not do? For me personally I am part of a minority group that, if the U.S. goes full fash, I will not be safe, full stop.
Do you know how many times I was called the f-slur prior to 2016? Like two. Do you know how many times it's happened since 2016? Like 10. While living in extremely liberal cities.
If you're a white cishet then by all means stay and fight the rearguard action to restore American democracy. I'm done pretending to care that this country cares about me.
posted by rhymedirective at 6:37 AM on November 16, 2023 [22 favorites]
How about you don't tell people what they should and should not do? For me personally I am part of a minority group that, if the U.S. goes full fash, I will not be safe, full stop.
Do you know how many times I was called the f-slur prior to 2016? Like two. Do you know how many times it's happened since 2016? Like 10. While living in extremely liberal cities.
If you're a white cishet then by all means stay and fight the rearguard action to restore American democracy. I'm done pretending to care that this country cares about me.
posted by rhymedirective at 6:37 AM on November 16, 2023 [22 favorites]
The main reasons I'll be voting for Biden:
1) The only actual alternative is worse.
2) The third party candidates that I semi-align with are all ideologues and/or academics. Cornel West and Howie Hawkins couldn't run a fucking Dairy Queen in the off season, let alone America. It's as reckless as a vote for Trump. Voting your conscience is null and void if you're voting for someone who literally could not do the job if they got it. That's ethically as shitty as voting for Trump.
posted by Lentrohamsanin at 7:10 AM on November 16, 2023 [11 favorites]
1) The only actual alternative is worse.
2) The third party candidates that I semi-align with are all ideologues and/or academics. Cornel West and Howie Hawkins couldn't run a fucking Dairy Queen in the off season, let alone America. It's as reckless as a vote for Trump. Voting your conscience is null and void if you're voting for someone who literally could not do the job if they got it. That's ethically as shitty as voting for Trump.
posted by Lentrohamsanin at 7:10 AM on November 16, 2023 [11 favorites]
I should probably consider staying and fighting if Trump wins. But I’m not going to. I’m trans. In Philadelphia I went out and no one really said boo to me, although I got a few looks (and a lady who told me my hair was lovely, which I appreciated). But despite everything, there’s enough people in this country who consider my existence sick and wrong and morally harmful to children just by breathing, most of whom are pro-fascist Republican types that I would run.
I wouldn’t expect these people to not make it mandatory for drugstores and insurance companies to provide lists of people on HRT for the purposes of tracking us down. If they do, when they get to my door, they will find nothing but an IKEA bookshelf and a can of mushrooms.
posted by mephron at 7:14 AM on November 16, 2023 [10 favorites]
I wouldn’t expect these people to not make it mandatory for drugstores and insurance companies to provide lists of people on HRT for the purposes of tracking us down. If they do, when they get to my door, they will find nothing but an IKEA bookshelf and a can of mushrooms.
posted by mephron at 7:14 AM on November 16, 2023 [10 favorites]
How about staying in the US and doing something to offset the facists, unless you’re certain you will be safer somewhere else? Are we all able to leave if we don’t like me Trump as president? Obviously not.
Listen, I am equally busy--if not busier--in working towards making sure the Cons don't get the majority in the next Canadian election which does directly impact me. I live here, I pay taxes here, and I am under no illusion that Canada is the great land of socialism. I have the advantage of dual citizenship, which as I stated in my comment I know is a privilege. What happens in the US unfortunately also bleeds over here and while I can't stop the bleeding, I can do my best to help staunch it. I will be voting as I always do in US elections, but the elections I have here are more pressing for me.
posted by Kitteh at 7:37 AM on November 16, 2023 [3 favorites]
Listen, I am equally busy--if not busier--in working towards making sure the Cons don't get the majority in the next Canadian election which does directly impact me. I live here, I pay taxes here, and I am under no illusion that Canada is the great land of socialism. I have the advantage of dual citizenship, which as I stated in my comment I know is a privilege. What happens in the US unfortunately also bleeds over here and while I can't stop the bleeding, I can do my best to help staunch it. I will be voting as I always do in US elections, but the elections I have here are more pressing for me.
posted by Kitteh at 7:37 AM on November 16, 2023 [3 favorites]
Another clear as hell and scary as hell column from the great Dahlia Lithwick: "What if the problem isn’t that consumers of media fail to understand the actual stakes of losing democracy? What if the problem is really that watching this MMA smackdown between fascism and representative democracy is, in fact, the 2023 version of good, clean fun? As Bouie puts it in his New York Times piece on the subject this week, 'The mundane truth of American politics is that much of what we want to know is in plain view. You don’t have to search hard or seek it out; you just have to listen. And Donald Trump is telling us, loud and clear, that he wants to end American democracy as we know it.'"
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 7:59 AM on November 16, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 7:59 AM on November 16, 2023 [4 favorites]
Of course, what will actually happen when they start summarily firing tens of thousands of federal workers is that many, many systems that Heritage Foundation / Federalist Society flaks aren't cognizant of and don't care about, but turn out to be essential to the functioning of various aspects of US life, will begin to fail.
From their perspectives, that's a feature, not a bug.
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 8:01 AM on November 16, 2023 [3 favorites]
From their perspectives, that's a feature, not a bug.
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 8:01 AM on November 16, 2023 [3 favorites]
That statue with that plaque isn't at Ellis Island. Yeah, oops.
I have experienced too many lowerings of the bar these past years. We have gone too quickly into a new normal. Trump's loss was too close to a statistical tie; the GOP's slavish obedience to Trumpism, and gerrymandering throughout all states are a whole set of variables that, taken as a whole, dim my expectations for the future. Trump's base won't falter, won't defect. Trump's hench-persons don't have to be competent. Our own Constitution has emergency powers relegated to the presidency that allow for the suspension of Congress. If the DoJ is gathered under the president's wing, it won't matter how the Supreme Court is stacked. The only thing left is the oath taken by our top military leaders. The oath gives allegiance to the Commander-in-Chief and the Constitution. Do you want to flip that coin? It's not hard to find examples of what happens when a nation's military gets divided over political primacy.
How many times can you say, "This (insert your favorite outrage here) can't get any worse, only to watch the situation slide further away from a reality we've taken for granted? I agree with the opinion above that Trump's "replacement" notions will cripple the government's ability to function correctly. I'm afraid I have to disagree with the opinion that HR departments will have any positive effect. I believe Trump himself has been elevated to the status of a figurehead. Trumpism is the reality, not Trump.
I was born during America's global ascendency. We were a shining example, yet I watched our government commit acts that reeked of chauvinistic hubris. I watched our country struggle to move toward manifesting our ideals even though we were systemically oriented against them. We fucked up a lot, but I believed America was a good idea. As an infantryman, I saw my brothers die under some version of the belief that they were doing "the right thing." As a signals analyst, I watched insanity struggle to reverse itself under a literal "MAD" theory of nuclear parity. I watched with growing shame as powerful nations backfilled their ambitions using smaller countries in wars of proxy. But I never faltered in my belief that America is still a good idea if we could only get it right.
I still think it's a good idea, but history reveals dynamics that lead me to understand that we are vulnerable to bad actors disguised as public servants. It's a bitter irony that a government mandated by the Constitution to "make no laws respecting [any] religion" has previously hidden weakness: We must have faith that our leaders respect the rule of law and be ethically bound to defend our country, rather than exploiting the authority with which they've been entrusted.
Perfect is the enemy of the good. Worst is the enemy of the bad. How much more upsidedown can we get? I don't even want to think of lowering the bar any farther.
posted by mule98J at 8:02 AM on November 16, 2023 [6 favorites]
I have experienced too many lowerings of the bar these past years. We have gone too quickly into a new normal. Trump's loss was too close to a statistical tie; the GOP's slavish obedience to Trumpism, and gerrymandering throughout all states are a whole set of variables that, taken as a whole, dim my expectations for the future. Trump's base won't falter, won't defect. Trump's hench-persons don't have to be competent. Our own Constitution has emergency powers relegated to the presidency that allow for the suspension of Congress. If the DoJ is gathered under the president's wing, it won't matter how the Supreme Court is stacked. The only thing left is the oath taken by our top military leaders. The oath gives allegiance to the Commander-in-Chief and the Constitution. Do you want to flip that coin? It's not hard to find examples of what happens when a nation's military gets divided over political primacy.
How many times can you say, "This (insert your favorite outrage here) can't get any worse, only to watch the situation slide further away from a reality we've taken for granted? I agree with the opinion above that Trump's "replacement" notions will cripple the government's ability to function correctly. I'm afraid I have to disagree with the opinion that HR departments will have any positive effect. I believe Trump himself has been elevated to the status of a figurehead. Trumpism is the reality, not Trump.
I was born during America's global ascendency. We were a shining example, yet I watched our government commit acts that reeked of chauvinistic hubris. I watched our country struggle to move toward manifesting our ideals even though we were systemically oriented against them. We fucked up a lot, but I believed America was a good idea. As an infantryman, I saw my brothers die under some version of the belief that they were doing "the right thing." As a signals analyst, I watched insanity struggle to reverse itself under a literal "MAD" theory of nuclear parity. I watched with growing shame as powerful nations backfilled their ambitions using smaller countries in wars of proxy. But I never faltered in my belief that America is still a good idea if we could only get it right.
I still think it's a good idea, but history reveals dynamics that lead me to understand that we are vulnerable to bad actors disguised as public servants. It's a bitter irony that a government mandated by the Constitution to "make no laws respecting [any] religion" has previously hidden weakness: We must have faith that our leaders respect the rule of law and be ethically bound to defend our country, rather than exploiting the authority with which they've been entrusted.
Perfect is the enemy of the good. Worst is the enemy of the bad. How much more upsidedown can we get? I don't even want to think of lowering the bar any farther.
posted by mule98J at 8:02 AM on November 16, 2023 [6 favorites]
I feel like there's two lines of thinking that get mushed together in these threads. One of them is an argument about what people could do/what we think they ought to do - vote blue no matter who, stay and fight, etc. There are strategic arguments to have here and there are practical arguments to have here - what can voting do? What is likely to happen to, eg, trans people if Trump is elected?
The other is "what are many people going to do for their own unstoppable reasons"? Like, up to a point, it may be possible to persuade, eg, Muslims to vote for Biden because Trump is worse. But also, it's the real truth that many Muslims see US support for the genocide in Gaza and see it as "all these people are cool with killing me and my co-religionists, I just can't". Up to a point, one can argue that queer and trans people or other marginalized people should stay and fight for moral reasons, but a lot of people who can get out are thinking "I don't want to wait to be homeless or in a camp, I value my own life and my family's lives".
Democrats who want to win have to take those unstoppable reasons on board because they exist. It's not enough to just hector people about how they are making the wrong choices, because in a large group, many people just won't change their opinions.
Furthermore, it gets more and more difficult for Vote Blue people to put their case - like, I simply do not have the face to walk up to a Muslim householder and tell them that they need to vote for Biden because Trump is worse. "You should vote for the guy who has repeatedly lied about the situation in Gaza for reasons of expdiency and you - not me, you - should put aside your feelings of fear, grief and rage as your co-religionists and maybe relatives are murdered because the other guy is worse and it's for the greater good" - that is a very tough thing to say, and frankly if I said it and someone punched me on the nose, I wouldn't be totally surprised.
Likewise, it is difficult to say to someone who is at real, physical, immediate risk of anti-trans violence that they need to stay and fight in the face of actual serious danger - for them, not you - because of the greater good. Honestly, if I didn't have aging family here and was a little younger, I'd be working to get out myself for these reasons, and I hope I am not making the world's stupidest decision by staying.
This isn't even an ethical question - we could argue all day about whether there's a point where one should stop voting blue, or whether it is one's moral responsibility to stay and fight, and what fighting means (taking to the hills with a guerilla organization? Voting? Living life and getting beaten up and harassed?) - but the flat fact is that many people are going to opt out because these are very bad situations indeed.
~~
On a personal note, I feel that we as voters and we as a country have been backing ourselves into a corner since I've been an adult, and we're finally all the way there. We've always used the "vote for the rightward-drifting Democrats who are making things worse, because Republicans are making things worse MORE", and now our choice isn't between Clinton's welfare "reform" and the GOP but between some border walls and some genocide and lots of border walls and lots of genocide. I do not know what to take away from this, except that on the grand scale these are the worst times I've known.
posted by Frowner at 8:04 AM on November 16, 2023 [52 favorites]
The other is "what are many people going to do for their own unstoppable reasons"? Like, up to a point, it may be possible to persuade, eg, Muslims to vote for Biden because Trump is worse. But also, it's the real truth that many Muslims see US support for the genocide in Gaza and see it as "all these people are cool with killing me and my co-religionists, I just can't". Up to a point, one can argue that queer and trans people or other marginalized people should stay and fight for moral reasons, but a lot of people who can get out are thinking "I don't want to wait to be homeless or in a camp, I value my own life and my family's lives".
Democrats who want to win have to take those unstoppable reasons on board because they exist. It's not enough to just hector people about how they are making the wrong choices, because in a large group, many people just won't change their opinions.
Furthermore, it gets more and more difficult for Vote Blue people to put their case - like, I simply do not have the face to walk up to a Muslim householder and tell them that they need to vote for Biden because Trump is worse. "You should vote for the guy who has repeatedly lied about the situation in Gaza for reasons of expdiency and you - not me, you - should put aside your feelings of fear, grief and rage as your co-religionists and maybe relatives are murdered because the other guy is worse and it's for the greater good" - that is a very tough thing to say, and frankly if I said it and someone punched me on the nose, I wouldn't be totally surprised.
Likewise, it is difficult to say to someone who is at real, physical, immediate risk of anti-trans violence that they need to stay and fight in the face of actual serious danger - for them, not you - because of the greater good. Honestly, if I didn't have aging family here and was a little younger, I'd be working to get out myself for these reasons, and I hope I am not making the world's stupidest decision by staying.
This isn't even an ethical question - we could argue all day about whether there's a point where one should stop voting blue, or whether it is one's moral responsibility to stay and fight, and what fighting means (taking to the hills with a guerilla organization? Voting? Living life and getting beaten up and harassed?) - but the flat fact is that many people are going to opt out because these are very bad situations indeed.
~~
On a personal note, I feel that we as voters and we as a country have been backing ourselves into a corner since I've been an adult, and we're finally all the way there. We've always used the "vote for the rightward-drifting Democrats who are making things worse, because Republicans are making things worse MORE", and now our choice isn't between Clinton's welfare "reform" and the GOP but between some border walls and some genocide and lots of border walls and lots of genocide. I do not know what to take away from this, except that on the grand scale these are the worst times I've known.
posted by Frowner at 8:04 AM on November 16, 2023 [52 favorites]
Thank you, Frowner, I've been trying to work out how to say just about all of that and I wouldn't have come up with anything so eloquent.
posted by Pope Guilty at 8:07 AM on November 16, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by Pope Guilty at 8:07 AM on November 16, 2023 [4 favorites]
Artifice_Eternity The thing is, you're probably right. There almost certainly isn't a majority, or near majority, in America who actively want to end democracy and institute a Fascist government.
But....
There are a large number of Republican voters who see ending democracy and getting Fascism as an acceptable price to pay for whatever cause it is they most favor. Sure, sure, democracy is OK but they want to ban abortion, or lower taxes on the rich, or make the military even bigger, or deport all the Mexicans, or whatever.
Not actual Fascists but what you might think of as Fascism neutral voters. And as we saw in 2020, combined with the actual Fascists they do have very close to a majority.
And as Frowner so eloquently put it, the Democrats have pushed Vote Blue No Matter Who to what may be the breaking point. Which is ABSOLUTELY FUCKING TERRIBLE. If you have a choice between two evils the moral choice is the lesser evil. And the Democrats definitely represent the lesser evil.
But they've taken advantage of that for so long to push absolutely horrible candidates and policies that a lot of people, in one of the most critical elections in American history, may not vote at all.
Republicans offer their voters what they want, so they have enthusiastic voters.
Democrats tell their voters fuck what you want, get out there and vote or else. Then act surprised that they have resentful reluctant voters.
And resentful or not, yes, of course people should vote for Biden (ugh). But "should" and "will" are very different things. The Democrats keep thinking if they can just scold people enough they'll totally win without having to actually give people anything they want. And it doesn't work like that, not even when the other possibility is the threat of President Donald John Trump.
So.... Yeah. I'm hoping to be out of Texas by the 2024 elections. And nearish to the Canadian border. I'd leave the country right now except there's nowhere that would take me, and I couldn't afford to move to even if there was. I think there's a decent chance Trump could win again, and I think he and his fellows have realized that their failure last time was due to lack of planning and lack of willingness to openly employ violence for their goals. They won't make those mistakes this time.
posted by sotonohito at 10:06 AM on November 16, 2023 [4 favorites]
But....
There are a large number of Republican voters who see ending democracy and getting Fascism as an acceptable price to pay for whatever cause it is they most favor. Sure, sure, democracy is OK but they want to ban abortion, or lower taxes on the rich, or make the military even bigger, or deport all the Mexicans, or whatever.
Not actual Fascists but what you might think of as Fascism neutral voters. And as we saw in 2020, combined with the actual Fascists they do have very close to a majority.
And as Frowner so eloquently put it, the Democrats have pushed Vote Blue No Matter Who to what may be the breaking point. Which is ABSOLUTELY FUCKING TERRIBLE. If you have a choice between two evils the moral choice is the lesser evil. And the Democrats definitely represent the lesser evil.
But they've taken advantage of that for so long to push absolutely horrible candidates and policies that a lot of people, in one of the most critical elections in American history, may not vote at all.
Republicans offer their voters what they want, so they have enthusiastic voters.
Democrats tell their voters fuck what you want, get out there and vote or else. Then act surprised that they have resentful reluctant voters.
And resentful or not, yes, of course people should vote for Biden (ugh). But "should" and "will" are very different things. The Democrats keep thinking if they can just scold people enough they'll totally win without having to actually give people anything they want. And it doesn't work like that, not even when the other possibility is the threat of President Donald John Trump.
So.... Yeah. I'm hoping to be out of Texas by the 2024 elections. And nearish to the Canadian border. I'd leave the country right now except there's nowhere that would take me, and I couldn't afford to move to even if there was. I think there's a decent chance Trump could win again, and I think he and his fellows have realized that their failure last time was due to lack of planning and lack of willingness to openly employ violence for their goals. They won't make those mistakes this time.
posted by sotonohito at 10:06 AM on November 16, 2023 [4 favorites]
If the Dems try to run Whitmer or Beshear over Harris, they risk alienating their most loyal voting bloc, Black women.
posted by girlmightlive at 10:33 AM on November 16, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by girlmightlive at 10:33 AM on November 16, 2023 [2 favorites]
The grim optimist in me goes... this is by no means the first time that America has sponsored genocide. But it's one of the first times, in my living memory, that opposing America's doing so has had such popular appeal. So maybe Biden keeps being the most progressive president in decades by embarrassing, infuriating default?
The pragmatist in me goes... the shit people feel about Biden in November 2023 won't last a full year. Political memory is short. And Trump is, on many levels, an infinitely worse-off candidate now than he was in 2016 or 2020. His dominance over the primaries right now isn't a show of his strength: it's a show of every other Republican's crippling weakness. Somehow, the Democrats have a deeper bench than the Republicans do. It's a little baffling to see it happen.
And the American realpolitik observer in me continues to think that the Republican slide into fascism, while both terrifying (in its potential to succeed) and deeply disturbing (in its normalization of anti-democratic discourse), reflects what it's reflected since 2016: that the Republican party, while supported by a flawed political infrastructure that inherently advantages them, is suffering from a profound crisis. Its smarter members all know that, and have been panicking over it for a decade; its dimmer semi-sane members have started to seriously panic too. The only people who aren't panicking are the Republicans who are the most openly revolting politicians that America's seen in maybe a century, but they're also extremely inept—and yes, the ineptitude is the point etc etc when you're trying to stop government from working, but they have repeatedly been too inept to stop things from working. What's more, they're normalizing a mainstream American revulsion towards their entire platform, so much so that progressive labor movements are actually gaining steam—less through the centrist Democrats' wanting to support them than because, in some ways, the Overton window is shifting to the left, because the callous sadism and bigotry that used to pass for "reasonably conservative" is increasingly ripping off the mask.
Yes, that doesn't matter if Republicans do away with democracy. But, pessimism and fear aside—and it is scary that we're still in the uncertain place where we just don't know—so far the pattern appears to be that the "political norms" which everybody knew no longer applied 20 years ago are failing increasingly openly, while the parts of the system that remain functional and democratic are holding fairly robustly. Like, January 6th was appalling and the lack of punishment for its political organizers emboldens would-be instigators, but January 6th was itself an echo of the Brooks Brothers riot in 2000; the Supreme Court's fuckery echoes decades of Supreme Court fuckery; even the genocide in Gaza echoes America's response to 9/11. The pro-fascist speech now isn't much further-thrown than the shit that Rush Limbaugh and Ann Coulter were saying in 2004. It's awful now, but it's always been this awful, just as the Republican contempt for democracy was this well-established during the Bush presidency, for all it was more sanitized and neutral. (And their attempts at voter suppression are nothing new—and arguably nowhere near as effective as past tactics were.)
The pro-fascist pro-violence pro-bigotry voices in America haven't been this loud in generations—that's undeniable. What I think is still an open question is whether this demonstrates strength for those factions. Because the Republican playbook since at least Reagan has been to keep Americans quiet: to placate them with visions of normality, to throw "the average voter" enough of a bone that they grumble but don't stir. It's been to maintain the question mark that hangs over every intolerant act, every abuse of power, so that the apathetic American who fancied themselves "reasonable" could point to the voices of the oppressed and accuse them of being the firebrands, fomenting trouble for no reason. And that's still the playbook, which is why every elitist media institution—not the overt right-wing ones, but the New York Times et al—spend so much time going after college students and Bernie primary voters and transgender activists, trying to paint them as the unreasonable ones. But that doesn't work when the "reasonable Zionists" are calling for genocide, when the anti-trans people are flat-out screaming about sports, and when the pro-business folks are publishing deluded manifestoes that read like Ayn Rand slashfic.
And they keep losing. Demonstrably, statistically, they keep losing battles. They keep losing even against the most ineffectual and despicable Democrats. The people screaming about trans shit are getting humiliatingly voted out of office. The monolithic establishment support of Israel, in government and media, isn't keeping the public from swaying in favor of ceasefire. And it's because they've ceded "reasonable" to their opponents. They've made the liberals and leftists seem like the ones who are advocating for a calmer America. Yes, the destabilization of our systems of living have led to some people furiously calling for mob rule and pogroms... but the average American really does seem to want things to calm the fuck down, and to literally and figuratively cool the fuck off.
The Republicans are trapped. You saw it in the Speaker vote. They have no choice to radicalize, because only the radicals are left—and the radicals demand blood, but also? The radicals are fucking idiots. The radicals don't have the political savvy that Hitler and the Nazis had in the 20s. (The Nazis were dumb, but the Republicans are basically the coddled participation-trophy college students that they accuse actual college students of being.)
And yes, the fact that Trump keeps tweeting about punishing his enemies between endless court hearings is scary, but Trump is also a weak old loser. Yes, Elon Musk turning Twitter into a Nazi hellhole is unsettling as hell, but Elon is also singlehandedly ruining the myth of billionaires for average people in a way that no billionaire has ever managed. Mike Johnson is a terrifying Christian supremacist, but he's also unbelievably inept on every level, and no effective party would have granted him power. You don't have to be superhumanly competent to be a fascist, but also, historically, fascists are only as powerful as the rot surrounding them lets them be. And America is rotten, but this rot's been here for a while, and the explicit mask-off fascism is opening more and more people's eyes to the fact that maybe we need to do something about it.
The Republicans are fucked. They might be fucked and find a way to topple an institution or two, but odds are they're just flat-out fucked. (And I'm not sure that, were they to try and actually end democracy, things would end the way they'd want it to.) That doesn't mean we should rest easy or turn our backs on this, but nobody's doing that, are they? And that's kinda the point: even as people get pissed off at Biden, even as new manufactured scandals about "progressives" brew, people are finding it harder and harder to ignore the elephant (heh) in the room. And that bodes very poorly for Republicans, because would-be thug gangs and mob violence have already proven to be markedly less effective than their previous tactics, in which an old actor with Alzheimer's and a folksy cokehead cowboy told America that Everything Was Fine, and America collectively shrugged.
Be alert, but don't succumb to terror. Feel grim, but don't despair. Be prepared to act, but don't panic. They are weak, they are cowardly, they are dumb, they are inept. They can be beat. They must be beat. And I think they will be beat. The world they fear is being born, with or without their consent. And it is a world of fiercer joys, and dearer hopes for peace, than any of them could understand, and it is why—I think, I hope—they are ultimately going to lose.
posted by Tom Hanks Cannot Be Trusted at 10:49 AM on November 16, 2023 [41 favorites]
The pragmatist in me goes... the shit people feel about Biden in November 2023 won't last a full year. Political memory is short. And Trump is, on many levels, an infinitely worse-off candidate now than he was in 2016 or 2020. His dominance over the primaries right now isn't a show of his strength: it's a show of every other Republican's crippling weakness. Somehow, the Democrats have a deeper bench than the Republicans do. It's a little baffling to see it happen.
And the American realpolitik observer in me continues to think that the Republican slide into fascism, while both terrifying (in its potential to succeed) and deeply disturbing (in its normalization of anti-democratic discourse), reflects what it's reflected since 2016: that the Republican party, while supported by a flawed political infrastructure that inherently advantages them, is suffering from a profound crisis. Its smarter members all know that, and have been panicking over it for a decade; its dimmer semi-sane members have started to seriously panic too. The only people who aren't panicking are the Republicans who are the most openly revolting politicians that America's seen in maybe a century, but they're also extremely inept—and yes, the ineptitude is the point etc etc when you're trying to stop government from working, but they have repeatedly been too inept to stop things from working. What's more, they're normalizing a mainstream American revulsion towards their entire platform, so much so that progressive labor movements are actually gaining steam—less through the centrist Democrats' wanting to support them than because, in some ways, the Overton window is shifting to the left, because the callous sadism and bigotry that used to pass for "reasonably conservative" is increasingly ripping off the mask.
Yes, that doesn't matter if Republicans do away with democracy. But, pessimism and fear aside—and it is scary that we're still in the uncertain place where we just don't know—so far the pattern appears to be that the "political norms" which everybody knew no longer applied 20 years ago are failing increasingly openly, while the parts of the system that remain functional and democratic are holding fairly robustly. Like, January 6th was appalling and the lack of punishment for its political organizers emboldens would-be instigators, but January 6th was itself an echo of the Brooks Brothers riot in 2000; the Supreme Court's fuckery echoes decades of Supreme Court fuckery; even the genocide in Gaza echoes America's response to 9/11. The pro-fascist speech now isn't much further-thrown than the shit that Rush Limbaugh and Ann Coulter were saying in 2004. It's awful now, but it's always been this awful, just as the Republican contempt for democracy was this well-established during the Bush presidency, for all it was more sanitized and neutral. (And their attempts at voter suppression are nothing new—and arguably nowhere near as effective as past tactics were.)
The pro-fascist pro-violence pro-bigotry voices in America haven't been this loud in generations—that's undeniable. What I think is still an open question is whether this demonstrates strength for those factions. Because the Republican playbook since at least Reagan has been to keep Americans quiet: to placate them with visions of normality, to throw "the average voter" enough of a bone that they grumble but don't stir. It's been to maintain the question mark that hangs over every intolerant act, every abuse of power, so that the apathetic American who fancied themselves "reasonable" could point to the voices of the oppressed and accuse them of being the firebrands, fomenting trouble for no reason. And that's still the playbook, which is why every elitist media institution—not the overt right-wing ones, but the New York Times et al—spend so much time going after college students and Bernie primary voters and transgender activists, trying to paint them as the unreasonable ones. But that doesn't work when the "reasonable Zionists" are calling for genocide, when the anti-trans people are flat-out screaming about sports, and when the pro-business folks are publishing deluded manifestoes that read like Ayn Rand slashfic.
And they keep losing. Demonstrably, statistically, they keep losing battles. They keep losing even against the most ineffectual and despicable Democrats. The people screaming about trans shit are getting humiliatingly voted out of office. The monolithic establishment support of Israel, in government and media, isn't keeping the public from swaying in favor of ceasefire. And it's because they've ceded "reasonable" to their opponents. They've made the liberals and leftists seem like the ones who are advocating for a calmer America. Yes, the destabilization of our systems of living have led to some people furiously calling for mob rule and pogroms... but the average American really does seem to want things to calm the fuck down, and to literally and figuratively cool the fuck off.
The Republicans are trapped. You saw it in the Speaker vote. They have no choice to radicalize, because only the radicals are left—and the radicals demand blood, but also? The radicals are fucking idiots. The radicals don't have the political savvy that Hitler and the Nazis had in the 20s. (The Nazis were dumb, but the Republicans are basically the coddled participation-trophy college students that they accuse actual college students of being.)
And yes, the fact that Trump keeps tweeting about punishing his enemies between endless court hearings is scary, but Trump is also a weak old loser. Yes, Elon Musk turning Twitter into a Nazi hellhole is unsettling as hell, but Elon is also singlehandedly ruining the myth of billionaires for average people in a way that no billionaire has ever managed. Mike Johnson is a terrifying Christian supremacist, but he's also unbelievably inept on every level, and no effective party would have granted him power. You don't have to be superhumanly competent to be a fascist, but also, historically, fascists are only as powerful as the rot surrounding them lets them be. And America is rotten, but this rot's been here for a while, and the explicit mask-off fascism is opening more and more people's eyes to the fact that maybe we need to do something about it.
The Republicans are fucked. They might be fucked and find a way to topple an institution or two, but odds are they're just flat-out fucked. (And I'm not sure that, were they to try and actually end democracy, things would end the way they'd want it to.) That doesn't mean we should rest easy or turn our backs on this, but nobody's doing that, are they? And that's kinda the point: even as people get pissed off at Biden, even as new manufactured scandals about "progressives" brew, people are finding it harder and harder to ignore the elephant (heh) in the room. And that bodes very poorly for Republicans, because would-be thug gangs and mob violence have already proven to be markedly less effective than their previous tactics, in which an old actor with Alzheimer's and a folksy cokehead cowboy told America that Everything Was Fine, and America collectively shrugged.
Be alert, but don't succumb to terror. Feel grim, but don't despair. Be prepared to act, but don't panic. They are weak, they are cowardly, they are dumb, they are inept. They can be beat. They must be beat. And I think they will be beat. The world they fear is being born, with or without their consent. And it is a world of fiercer joys, and dearer hopes for peace, than any of them could understand, and it is why—I think, I hope—they are ultimately going to lose.
posted by Tom Hanks Cannot Be Trusted at 10:49 AM on November 16, 2023 [41 favorites]
(And none of what I said is intended to contradict what Frowner just said. I think we are in an inherently contradictory moment in time; multitudes abound.)
posted by Tom Hanks Cannot Be Trusted at 10:50 AM on November 16, 2023 [8 favorites]
posted by Tom Hanks Cannot Be Trusted at 10:50 AM on November 16, 2023 [8 favorites]
the callous sadism and bigotry that used to pass for "reasonably conservative" is increasingly ripping off the mask
Frank Wilhoit really is a prophet for our times.
Frank Wilhoit really is a prophet for our times.
As the core proposition of conservatism is indefensible if stated baldly, it has always been surrounded by an elaborate backwash of pseudophilosophy, amounting over time to millions of pages. All such is axiomatically dishonest and undeserving of serious scrutiny. Today, the accelerating de-education of humanity has reached a point where the market for pseudophilosophy is vanishing; it is, as The Kids Say These Days, tl;dr. All that is left is the core proposition itself — backed up, no longer by misdirection and sophistry, but by violence.posted by flabdablet at 11:11 AM on November 16, 2023 [21 favorites]
It's a Reverse Atwater, and has been.
The slow migration from outright slurs to coded language to even-more-coded allusions and dog whistles was effective, but only to those who understood the meaning behind what was said in its later stages. Trump didn't invent the Reverse Atwater -- talk radio and Internet pundits have been steadily dumbing-it-down for the rubes for decades -- but he's executed it with full vigor, discarding all subtlety, and his hardcore base adores him for that.
And when you lose the people who prefer their racism and sexism and religious bigotry with a veneer of feigned civility and rationality, you're left with the people who just want to say the slurs and persecute the slurred and follow someone who will let them do that.
posted by delfin at 11:21 AM on November 16, 2023 [2 favorites]
The slow migration from outright slurs to coded language to even-more-coded allusions and dog whistles was effective, but only to those who understood the meaning behind what was said in its later stages. Trump didn't invent the Reverse Atwater -- talk radio and Internet pundits have been steadily dumbing-it-down for the rubes for decades -- but he's executed it with full vigor, discarding all subtlety, and his hardcore base adores him for that.
And when you lose the people who prefer their racism and sexism and religious bigotry with a veneer of feigned civility and rationality, you're left with the people who just want to say the slurs and persecute the slurred and follow someone who will let them do that.
posted by delfin at 11:21 AM on November 16, 2023 [2 favorites]
I'm deeply baffled by the calls to Stay And Fight Harder. I live in Texas. My vote for president hasn't mattered in the slightest for 40 years. If I had a child, God help me if they, like me, are transgender. Can I stick a finger in the leaky dam? Sure! Can the government do horrible things to me without consequences? Probably!
What does fighting look like? Move to redder, more dangerous states where my vote might be slightly less insignificant? Try to get my family members who think I'm literally possessed by a literal demon to be sane? Move to blue states and prepare to man the barricades? Learn to use guns and hope I take out more of them in the worst case scenario? How much abuse is worth the benefits if I do stay and fight if the Republicans keep passing hate laws?
posted by Jacen at 1:01 PM on November 16, 2023 [17 favorites]
What does fighting look like? Move to redder, more dangerous states where my vote might be slightly less insignificant? Try to get my family members who think I'm literally possessed by a literal demon to be sane? Move to blue states and prepare to man the barricades? Learn to use guns and hope I take out more of them in the worst case scenario? How much abuse is worth the benefits if I do stay and fight if the Republicans keep passing hate laws?
posted by Jacen at 1:01 PM on November 16, 2023 [17 favorites]
but between some border walls and some genocide and lots of border walls and lots of genocide. I do not know what to take away from this, except that on the grand scale these are the worst times I've known.
okay but the some border walls and some genocide will come with rainbow decals that say "hate has no home here" and "not in our name"
posted by i used to be someone else at 1:10 PM on November 16, 2023 [3 favorites]
okay but the some border walls and some genocide will come with rainbow decals that say "hate has no home here" and "not in our name"
posted by i used to be someone else at 1:10 PM on November 16, 2023 [3 favorites]
And that's still the playbook, which is why every elitist media institution—not the overt right-wing ones, but the New York Times et al—spend so much time going after college students and Bernie primary voters and transgender activists, trying to paint them as the unreasonable ones. But that doesn't work when the "reasonable Zionists" are calling for genocide, when the anti-trans people are flat-out screaming about sports, and when the pro-business folks are publishing deluded manifestoes that read like Ayn Rand slashfic.
honestly, i wish i had your confidence here. the fact that the nytimes et al have been publishing the openly transphobic bullshit has made it extremely difficult to have real conversations, not with the blatantly anti-trans bigots, but the big immovable middle that, upon reading "there are some concerns" in the nytimes actually thinks there are concerns and that maybe we shouldn't let trans people get the healthcare they need because it's just so dangerous, you know?
i get your optimism. i appreciate it. while you're right in that they keep losing, every time they land a blow, they take a pound of our flesh, not the flesh of our nominal cishet white allies. every time they make a stab at strangling the world being born, it's our blood that's getting spilled, our breath they're taking. our fear, our rage, our flight/flight/freeze/fawn is a direct result of this, even as we stiff upper lip it with attempts at showcasing our joy.
and that's just trans people. the broader rainbow coalition? native americans, arab americans, black americans, latine americans, asian americans, disabled americans, all of us are closer to the meat grinder than that vast middle america filled with straight, mostly white, mostly ambivalent people who just want to be left alone, and american history has not given me any confidence that they'll do anything but tut tut until we the canaries are all dead.
posted by i used to be someone else at 1:24 PM on November 16, 2023 [21 favorites]
honestly, i wish i had your confidence here. the fact that the nytimes et al have been publishing the openly transphobic bullshit has made it extremely difficult to have real conversations, not with the blatantly anti-trans bigots, but the big immovable middle that, upon reading "there are some concerns" in the nytimes actually thinks there are concerns and that maybe we shouldn't let trans people get the healthcare they need because it's just so dangerous, you know?
i get your optimism. i appreciate it. while you're right in that they keep losing, every time they land a blow, they take a pound of our flesh, not the flesh of our nominal cishet white allies. every time they make a stab at strangling the world being born, it's our blood that's getting spilled, our breath they're taking. our fear, our rage, our flight/flight/freeze/fawn is a direct result of this, even as we stiff upper lip it with attempts at showcasing our joy.
and that's just trans people. the broader rainbow coalition? native americans, arab americans, black americans, latine americans, asian americans, disabled americans, all of us are closer to the meat grinder than that vast middle america filled with straight, mostly white, mostly ambivalent people who just want to be left alone, and american history has not given me any confidence that they'll do anything but tut tut until we the canaries are all dead.
posted by i used to be someone else at 1:24 PM on November 16, 2023 [21 favorites]
Heckuva job, Durbin: Senate Democrats Punt On Supreme Court Oversight In Favor Of Early Vacation
posted by Glegrinof the Pig-Man at 1:33 PM on November 16, 2023 [12 favorites]
posted by Glegrinof the Pig-Man at 1:33 PM on November 16, 2023 [12 favorites]
They are a minority -- vocal and determined, but a minority. I'm confident that significantly more Americans very much don't want something like this to happen.
I agree. What worries me is that "vocal and determined"part - and the fact that our side seems quite unable to match their energy or ruthless focus on making practical, real-world changes to the way the system works at every level of government. Until we're smart enough to match that, the beatings will continue.
posted by Paul Slade at 2:18 AM on November 17, 2023 [5 favorites]
I agree. What worries me is that "vocal and determined"part - and the fact that our side seems quite unable to match their energy or ruthless focus on making practical, real-world changes to the way the system works at every level of government. Until we're smart enough to match that, the beatings will continue.
posted by Paul Slade at 2:18 AM on November 17, 2023 [5 favorites]
I'm clinging to some good news that George Santos has announced he will not seek re-election, and the thing that prompted him to make that announcement was a truly damning report from the House Ethics committee. Which is not surprising, but I'm taking it as evidence that the House is not so far gone that it can't still at least look at someone who's a COLOSSAL fuckup and say "....dude, come on."
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 3:48 AM on November 17, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 3:48 AM on November 17, 2023 [2 favorites]
I submit that people who get all hell no Biden because he won't take a definite side for the Palestinians should look at what his probable opponent would do in office.
Can we not pretend that he isn't backing Israel in this thing in what has been the bipartisan American foreign policy consensus for decades now? We can argue about how much that is going to depress voter turnout in purple areas where it matters, but he's not a neutral party.
zymil, what could Biden do about the price of housing? I also thought the impetus for suspending the payments in the first place was Covid. If he's going to suspend the other covid aid, the payments would have to come back, unless he should give college attendees special treatment over renters, the unemployed, etc.
posted by Selena777 at 8:11 AM on November 17, 2023
Can we not pretend that he isn't backing Israel in this thing in what has been the bipartisan American foreign policy consensus for decades now? We can argue about how much that is going to depress voter turnout in purple areas where it matters, but he's not a neutral party.
zymil, what could Biden do about the price of housing? I also thought the impetus for suspending the payments in the first place was Covid. If he's going to suspend the other covid aid, the payments would have to come back, unless he should give college attendees special treatment over renters, the unemployed, etc.
posted by Selena777 at 8:11 AM on November 17, 2023
A follow up to the George Santos comment above:
I'm taking it as evidence that the House is not so far gone that it can't still at least look at someone who's a COLOSSAL fuckup and say "....dude, come on."
Even better - the House Ethics chairman (himself a Republican) has just introduced a resolution to boot Santos from Congress altogether.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 8:17 AM on November 17, 2023 [3 favorites]
I'm taking it as evidence that the House is not so far gone that it can't still at least look at someone who's a COLOSSAL fuckup and say "....dude, come on."
Even better - the House Ethics chairman (himself a Republican) has just introduced a resolution to boot Santos from Congress altogether.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 8:17 AM on November 17, 2023 [3 favorites]
Some of the best anti-Trump writing has come from establishment Republican (and never-Trumper) Tom Nichols. Today: Trump Crosses a Crucial Line
"I argued that for most of Trump’s time as a public figure, he was not a fascist ... After Trump was elected, I still warned against the indiscriminate use of fascism, because I suspected that the day might come when it would be an accurate term to describe him, and I wanted to preserve its power to shock and to alarm us. ...
The events of the past month, and especially Trump’s Veterans Day speech, confirm to me that the moment has arrived. ... Trump no longer aims to be some garden-variety supremo; he is now promising to be a threat to every American he identifies as an enemy
... he has reportedly expressed admiration of Hitler ... so when the Republican front-runner uses terms like vermin and expressions like poisoning the blood of our country, we are not required to spend a lot of time generously parsing what he may have meant.
Although some of Trump’s most ardent voters support his blood-and-soil rhetoric, millions of others have no connection to that agenda. Some are unaware; others are in denial. ...many of our fellow Americans, despite their morally abysmal choice to support Trump, are not fascists."
I read this last part as an (admittedly very faint) glimmer of hope: Perhaps some of his supporters can be awoken to the true nature of what they support.
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 8:20 AM on November 17, 2023 [2 favorites]
"I argued that for most of Trump’s time as a public figure, he was not a fascist ... After Trump was elected, I still warned against the indiscriminate use of fascism, because I suspected that the day might come when it would be an accurate term to describe him, and I wanted to preserve its power to shock and to alarm us. ...
The events of the past month, and especially Trump’s Veterans Day speech, confirm to me that the moment has arrived. ... Trump no longer aims to be some garden-variety supremo; he is now promising to be a threat to every American he identifies as an enemy
... he has reportedly expressed admiration of Hitler ... so when the Republican front-runner uses terms like vermin and expressions like poisoning the blood of our country, we are not required to spend a lot of time generously parsing what he may have meant.
Although some of Trump’s most ardent voters support his blood-and-soil rhetoric, millions of others have no connection to that agenda. Some are unaware; others are in denial. ...many of our fellow Americans, despite their morally abysmal choice to support Trump, are not fascists."
I read this last part as an (admittedly very faint) glimmer of hope: Perhaps some of his supporters can be awoken to the true nature of what they support.
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 8:20 AM on November 17, 2023 [2 favorites]
What is happening in Gaza is so horrific, I am lost for words. And yes, the US could and should take a stronger stance towards Israel, for Israel's sake. But, I strongly suspect that the current situation is a direct result of Trump administration's efforts to create an alliance between Saudi Arabia and Israel.
There is no way I can condone what Hamas did and are doing, but I can see why they did it, and I can see why Iran either backed it or instigated it.
If Trump becomes the Republican nominee, voting against Biden will be voting for more power to authoritarian and dictatorial regimes all over the world. It's voting for more, not less support for Netanyahu (who is not a dictator but who is as corrupt and wicked as they come).
posted by mumimor at 8:26 AM on November 17, 2023 [3 favorites]
There is no way I can condone what Hamas did and are doing, but I can see why they did it, and I can see why Iran either backed it or instigated it.
If Trump becomes the Republican nominee, voting against Biden will be voting for more power to authoritarian and dictatorial regimes all over the world. It's voting for more, not less support for Netanyahu (who is not a dictator but who is as corrupt and wicked as they come).
posted by mumimor at 8:26 AM on November 17, 2023 [3 favorites]
“How to Get Lost,” Sarah Kendzior’s Newsletter, 11 November 2023
posted by ob1quixote at 8:47 AM on November 17, 2023
posted by ob1quixote at 8:47 AM on November 17, 2023
Stay and fight or flee to safety? Or, hunker in the bunker? Where's safety? You know they'll eventually find your bunker.
Nobody can make any of those decisions for anybody other than themselves.
Suffer an old fart to recall the 60s and 70s. Many Americans opposed our participation in "The Vietnam War," also called "The Second Indochina War." Activation of the draft was a significant issue. Also on deck in those days was an emerging (and deadly) struggle against racism, women's rights, and the recognition of gay folks as actual human beings. The right side of the socio-political spectrum was complicated, and it didn't manage to be in step with any of the usual conservative views. The traditional "Silent Majority" was a complex mix of racists, misogynists, chauvinists, and old fashioned hide-bound and baffled people who didn't want to be bothered.
The left, the "doves," wore a compendium of liberal ideals often at odds with each other. The doves became a conglomerate under the "Peace Movement." This movement learned strategies and tactics developed by "Civil rights" activists. Non-violent protesters were often willing to undergo beatings, dog bites, and sometimes death in pursuit of their ideals. Not all on the left were so inclined. The Black Panthers sometimes organized themselves, having decided that they didn't need help from the white establishment. They were a radical and sometimes violent organization. Others became associated with the "Weather Underground," another radical and occasionally violent organization.
Massive and well-organized demonstrations were the order of the day, but these were effected after research and training produced cadres of well-informed leaders. Posters and workshops had been organized by the various facets of the movement (anti-war, women, gays, and others).
The anti-response was the most visible. Young men publically burned their draft cards. Many of them were arrested and jailed. Others suffered abuse during demonstrations by violent members from the right. Others fled to Canada. Others huddled behind waivers until the waivers expired, then submitted to the draft, some whining their whole term of service. The motives varied: didn't want to kill, didn't want to die, didn't want to leave home. Maybe other reasons, too. In contrast, others accepted the responsibility forced upon them and did their best not to let their brothers-in-arms get killed.
We were led by intelligent young people, mostly students, some of whom gave up their entire junior and senior years to work for the cause. Others were students on break who showed up for the show, or maybe in hopes of scooping up a bit of that free love they imagined floated around the gatherings.
We were all called Hippies, even though a Hippie was a whole other subset and not oriented explicitly to any of these organizations. When I left the Army (in 1971), I quickly slid from an obscure ex-soldier to an unknown student on the GI bill, and then I embraced Hippidom, quit school, and for reasons unrelated to politics, I built a hut on the flank of a volcano and spent two years trying to avoid people, politics, and any other sort of drama. I was interested in hunkering in the bunker and trying not to get arrested again.
I believe the movement had positive, if not wholly satisfactory, results. I won't try to impose any opinions that evolved since then on anybody but myself. I suppose those who fled to Canada (or elsewhere) to avoid the draft have come to terms with their decision. I think the more intensely driven women of the movement have mixed feelings about their assault on misogyny. Anti-war cadres of the day may shake their heads in wonder at our military antics since Vietnam.
An old saw goes something like this: All that's required for evil to flourish is for good people to do nothing. Another one goes: I was silent when they came for the...
Well, you get the idea. We are upside down. We must be who we are so we'll all be who we become. My parting observation is this: Demonstrations in the '60s & '70s differed from the ones I've seen lately in the quality of the leadership's ability to educate and organize cadres capable of further organizing smaller groups and aligning these groups with a common course of action. Another failing is in failing to train cadres to engage onlookers at their public demonstrations in non-confrontational ways. You do not gain allies by insulting them. A major issue is the erroneous assumption that an ally must be 100% aligned with your views. One of our shortcomings resided in an inability to police our own prejudices. I see this in much of the heartfelt dialogue in MeFi. Pain often makes us stupid. Worse, it exhausts us, and exhaustion can dourt fear, and fear, when you are blind to options, engenders either panic or surrender.
Partial disclosure: I'm a white cismale meandering toward the end of my run.
posted by mule98J at 9:03 AM on November 17, 2023 [7 favorites]
Nobody can make any of those decisions for anybody other than themselves.
Suffer an old fart to recall the 60s and 70s. Many Americans opposed our participation in "The Vietnam War," also called "The Second Indochina War." Activation of the draft was a significant issue. Also on deck in those days was an emerging (and deadly) struggle against racism, women's rights, and the recognition of gay folks as actual human beings. The right side of the socio-political spectrum was complicated, and it didn't manage to be in step with any of the usual conservative views. The traditional "Silent Majority" was a complex mix of racists, misogynists, chauvinists, and old fashioned hide-bound and baffled people who didn't want to be bothered.
The left, the "doves," wore a compendium of liberal ideals often at odds with each other. The doves became a conglomerate under the "Peace Movement." This movement learned strategies and tactics developed by "Civil rights" activists. Non-violent protesters were often willing to undergo beatings, dog bites, and sometimes death in pursuit of their ideals. Not all on the left were so inclined. The Black Panthers sometimes organized themselves, having decided that they didn't need help from the white establishment. They were a radical and sometimes violent organization. Others became associated with the "Weather Underground," another radical and occasionally violent organization.
Massive and well-organized demonstrations were the order of the day, but these were effected after research and training produced cadres of well-informed leaders. Posters and workshops had been organized by the various facets of the movement (anti-war, women, gays, and others).
The anti-response was the most visible. Young men publically burned their draft cards. Many of them were arrested and jailed. Others suffered abuse during demonstrations by violent members from the right. Others fled to Canada. Others huddled behind waivers until the waivers expired, then submitted to the draft, some whining their whole term of service. The motives varied: didn't want to kill, didn't want to die, didn't want to leave home. Maybe other reasons, too. In contrast, others accepted the responsibility forced upon them and did their best not to let their brothers-in-arms get killed.
We were led by intelligent young people, mostly students, some of whom gave up their entire junior and senior years to work for the cause. Others were students on break who showed up for the show, or maybe in hopes of scooping up a bit of that free love they imagined floated around the gatherings.
We were all called Hippies, even though a Hippie was a whole other subset and not oriented explicitly to any of these organizations. When I left the Army (in 1971), I quickly slid from an obscure ex-soldier to an unknown student on the GI bill, and then I embraced Hippidom, quit school, and for reasons unrelated to politics, I built a hut on the flank of a volcano and spent two years trying to avoid people, politics, and any other sort of drama. I was interested in hunkering in the bunker and trying not to get arrested again.
I believe the movement had positive, if not wholly satisfactory, results. I won't try to impose any opinions that evolved since then on anybody but myself. I suppose those who fled to Canada (or elsewhere) to avoid the draft have come to terms with their decision. I think the more intensely driven women of the movement have mixed feelings about their assault on misogyny. Anti-war cadres of the day may shake their heads in wonder at our military antics since Vietnam.
An old saw goes something like this: All that's required for evil to flourish is for good people to do nothing. Another one goes: I was silent when they came for the...
Well, you get the idea. We are upside down. We must be who we are so we'll all be who we become. My parting observation is this: Demonstrations in the '60s & '70s differed from the ones I've seen lately in the quality of the leadership's ability to educate and organize cadres capable of further organizing smaller groups and aligning these groups with a common course of action. Another failing is in failing to train cadres to engage onlookers at their public demonstrations in non-confrontational ways. You do not gain allies by insulting them. A major issue is the erroneous assumption that an ally must be 100% aligned with your views. One of our shortcomings resided in an inability to police our own prejudices. I see this in much of the heartfelt dialogue in MeFi. Pain often makes us stupid. Worse, it exhausts us, and exhaustion can dourt fear, and fear, when you are blind to options, engenders either panic or surrender.
Partial disclosure: I'm a white cismale meandering toward the end of my run.
posted by mule98J at 9:03 AM on November 17, 2023 [7 favorites]
“It's Official: You Can Use That Word,” John Ganz, Unpopular Front, 17 November 2023
posted by ob1quixote at 9:40 AM on November 17, 2023 [5 favorites]
posted by ob1quixote at 9:40 AM on November 17, 2023 [5 favorites]
You do not gain allies by insulting them. A major issue is the erroneous assumption that an ally must be 100% aligned with your views.
no, but also, you do not keep "allies"/members of the coalition, especially amongst the marginalized, by consistently, persistently, and often times what seems to be insistently ignoring their needs, talking over them, and assuming you know what's best for them.
it is not an insult to biden to laugh dryly and roll your eyes at the "we stand with you" as laws get passed. it is not an insult to the self-purported "allies" to point out that they have far less skin in the game
and when not being "100% aligned" with your views means that they don't 100% agree with your personhood, your agency, and your right to freedoms, are they really "allies"? because so many "allies" right now are complaining about migrants being given shelter in office buildings and hotels up north because suddenly they live right next door and not somewhere else. so many "allies" think that maybe the way people are protesting police abuses makes all police look bad. so many "allies" think that maybe trans people are asking for too much too soon. so many "allies" think that one MUST condemn Hamas when talking about the current Gaza crisis first and foremost as a shibboleth before talking about hospitals being destroyed and children being bombed.
with allies like that...
the "insult" always seems to be by the marginalized towards the immovable, disinterested white cishet middle, never considering how it looks the other way around.
posted by i used to be someone else at 10:38 AM on November 17, 2023 [16 favorites]
no, but also, you do not keep "allies"/members of the coalition, especially amongst the marginalized, by consistently, persistently, and often times what seems to be insistently ignoring their needs, talking over them, and assuming you know what's best for them.
it is not an insult to biden to laugh dryly and roll your eyes at the "we stand with you" as laws get passed. it is not an insult to the self-purported "allies" to point out that they have far less skin in the game
and when not being "100% aligned" with your views means that they don't 100% agree with your personhood, your agency, and your right to freedoms, are they really "allies"? because so many "allies" right now are complaining about migrants being given shelter in office buildings and hotels up north because suddenly they live right next door and not somewhere else. so many "allies" think that maybe the way people are protesting police abuses makes all police look bad. so many "allies" think that maybe trans people are asking for too much too soon. so many "allies" think that one MUST condemn Hamas when talking about the current Gaza crisis first and foremost as a shibboleth before talking about hospitals being destroyed and children being bombed.
with allies like that...
the "insult" always seems to be by the marginalized towards the immovable, disinterested white cishet middle, never considering how it looks the other way around.
posted by i used to be someone else at 10:38 AM on November 17, 2023 [16 favorites]
and when not being "100% aligned" with your views means that they don't 100% agree with your personhood, your agency, and your right to freedoms
Or, it might mean they have a different opinion about [your] tactics.
The "ally" part of this conversation works both ways. Allies identify a convergence of interests beyond the "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" version of their interactions. Generalizations may be a helpful shorthand within a group, but they are counterproductive to hopes of achieving any mutual gain. In this instance, a one-way relationship is not an alliance; it's only an appendage. I hope I'm clear that my argument is meant to apply in both directions.
As for Hamas and the IDF, I've been disappointed in America's unconditional support of Israeli incursions (both the legal and the wink-wink types) into Palestinian lands since 1967. These incursions are more than rooting a village out of ancestral lands. It involves degrading those humans and, in many cases casting them into abject poverty or even murdering them. I do not support Hamas. I do not support the "We have a right to exist" argument by the Israeli government as a valid reason for what I consider to be naked oppression. Some mistakes can't be undone, but oppression can be recognized, and changes can be effected. However, I have no reasonable ideas for this mess, even though I want the killing to stop.
I have abiding memories of villages ravaged by people wearing the regalia of war. I was then, and I am now, sickened by it. I do not have to be a Vietnamese farmer to understand how that shit works. That doesn't mean I know what being a Vietnamese farmer is like.
You might find it useful to be more thoughtful before you write off the white cishet population as unwanted "allies," even if you believe they are not 100% behind your ideas or even if you know they don't know what it's like being you.
We may have some usefully convergent interests that don't require marginalized people to be subsumed into that fictional melting pot. It's clear that cishet Americans can't define those options except by enacting laws such as legalizing same-sex marriages. It should be clear that I have no clear idea of the subtly of the relationships among non-cis people.
In my view, it should be clear that simply passing new laws covers little ground if they aren't accompanied by cultural shifts in what we, the entitled, are pleased to call public opinion. Do you want to shift the paradigm? Look for allies. That was the theme of my other essay.
Your response did not roll off my back. I read what you said, and tried to look at it with clear eyes.
posted by mule98J at 11:56 AM on November 17, 2023
Or, it might mean they have a different opinion about [your] tactics.
The "ally" part of this conversation works both ways. Allies identify a convergence of interests beyond the "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" version of their interactions. Generalizations may be a helpful shorthand within a group, but they are counterproductive to hopes of achieving any mutual gain. In this instance, a one-way relationship is not an alliance; it's only an appendage. I hope I'm clear that my argument is meant to apply in both directions.
As for Hamas and the IDF, I've been disappointed in America's unconditional support of Israeli incursions (both the legal and the wink-wink types) into Palestinian lands since 1967. These incursions are more than rooting a village out of ancestral lands. It involves degrading those humans and, in many cases casting them into abject poverty or even murdering them. I do not support Hamas. I do not support the "We have a right to exist" argument by the Israeli government as a valid reason for what I consider to be naked oppression. Some mistakes can't be undone, but oppression can be recognized, and changes can be effected. However, I have no reasonable ideas for this mess, even though I want the killing to stop.
I have abiding memories of villages ravaged by people wearing the regalia of war. I was then, and I am now, sickened by it. I do not have to be a Vietnamese farmer to understand how that shit works. That doesn't mean I know what being a Vietnamese farmer is like.
You might find it useful to be more thoughtful before you write off the white cishet population as unwanted "allies," even if you believe they are not 100% behind your ideas or even if you know they don't know what it's like being you.
We may have some usefully convergent interests that don't require marginalized people to be subsumed into that fictional melting pot. It's clear that cishet Americans can't define those options except by enacting laws such as legalizing same-sex marriages. It should be clear that I have no clear idea of the subtly of the relationships among non-cis people.
In my view, it should be clear that simply passing new laws covers little ground if they aren't accompanied by cultural shifts in what we, the entitled, are pleased to call public opinion. Do you want to shift the paradigm? Look for allies. That was the theme of my other essay.
Your response did not roll off my back. I read what you said, and tried to look at it with clear eyes.
posted by mule98J at 11:56 AM on November 17, 2023
You might find it useful to be more thoughtful before you write off the white cishet population as unwanted "allies," even if you believe they are not 100% behind your ideas or even if you know they don't know what it's like being you.
delightful ewphoria in being told by an older cishet man what and how i, a trans woman, should think about self-purported allies.
when those allies say that women like me shouldn't participate in sports with cis women, are they really allies? when they say that women like me aren't actually real women, are they really allies? this isn't about tactics, this is exactly what i mean regarding personhood, agency, and rights.
if i were talking about tactics, please give me the credit of trusting that i would have said "tactics" and "strategy". you know, the same credit you'd give any other woman.
posted by i used to be someone else at 12:09 PM on November 17, 2023 [11 favorites]
delightful ewphoria in being told by an older cishet man what and how i, a trans woman, should think about self-purported allies.
when those allies say that women like me shouldn't participate in sports with cis women, are they really allies? when they say that women like me aren't actually real women, are they really allies? this isn't about tactics, this is exactly what i mean regarding personhood, agency, and rights.
if i were talking about tactics, please give me the credit of trusting that i would have said "tactics" and "strategy". you know, the same credit you'd give any other woman.
posted by i used to be someone else at 12:09 PM on November 17, 2023 [11 favorites]
like, here's the thing. i totally believe that a lot of people don't know what it's like to live life as someone else. but at the same time, that's why it's so important to listen to those people, and that's... not what happens when it comes to the experience of being a woman, being not-straight, being not-cis, being obviously ethnic, of not being obviously ethnic, of being disabled, of being neurodivergent--
and yet allies regularly and frequently do talk over and speak for (when unasked), and somehow it's bad when we look askance at them and start to dismiss them?
why does that only go one way?
posted by i used to be someone else at 12:14 PM on November 17, 2023 [9 favorites]
and yet allies regularly and frequently do talk over and speak for (when unasked), and somehow it's bad when we look askance at them and start to dismiss them?
why does that only go one way?
posted by i used to be someone else at 12:14 PM on November 17, 2023 [9 favorites]
In my view, it should be clear that simply passing new laws covers little ground if they aren't accompanied by cultural shifts in what we, the entitled, are pleased to call public opinion
I'd like to note that this is a rather ahistorc view of how social change works.
The Civil Rights Act didn't follow a sea change in attitudes among Southern raicsts, it produced that sea change.
And not just among Southern racists, but nationwide. Support for interracial marriage was well below 50% among white American before the CRA was passed and following passage rose steadily.
The law dragged public opinion towards more equity it was not a more or less unnecessary acknowledgement of an already shifted public opinion.
The same happened with same sex marriage following Obergefell. There was a sharp uptick in support for same sex marriage in the years following its legalization.
so no, I disagree with your core premise. We should not limit laws to things that currently poll above 50% among cis het white men.
posted by sotonohito at 1:39 PM on November 17, 2023 [10 favorites]
I'd like to note that this is a rather ahistorc view of how social change works.
The Civil Rights Act didn't follow a sea change in attitudes among Southern raicsts, it produced that sea change.
And not just among Southern racists, but nationwide. Support for interracial marriage was well below 50% among white American before the CRA was passed and following passage rose steadily.
The law dragged public opinion towards more equity it was not a more or less unnecessary acknowledgement of an already shifted public opinion.
The same happened with same sex marriage following Obergefell. There was a sharp uptick in support for same sex marriage in the years following its legalization.
so no, I disagree with your core premise. We should not limit laws to things that currently poll above 50% among cis het white men.
posted by sotonohito at 1:39 PM on November 17, 2023 [10 favorites]
So, no, I disagree with your core premise. We should not limit laws to things that currently poll above 50% among cis het white men.
I'm pretty sure I didn't go anywhere near that premise.
Laws may chip away at racism, for example, but they won't eliminate it. Notice that racism is still a major cultural feature of America despite some of the systemic versions of it that have been addressed legally. Check out how easy it was to toss out Roe v Wade despite nearly half a century of legal work by a shit-ton of dedicated people, not to mention mainstream organizations that supported it. Legal advances in gender issues have not yet gained very much traction among the cishet population. Some of this might be remedied by exposure.
Gays are more often portrayed favorably in the media than in my heyday. We have learned that they are not the creatures we may have thought they were in the 1950s. Lots of laws lagged behind a whole shit-ton of courage in making that happen: it took only what?--60 years before they were elevated by cis hets, first to the notion that being gay didn't equate to pedophilia, to the butt of jokes (Three's Company) to a conditional mainstream acceptance? Even now, their journey is not complete. I do not claim that cis hets must validate marginalized people. Not at all.
My tack argued that people with various objectives could wield more influence by finding the commonality in their marginal roles in our patriarchal, racist, misogynistic country dominated by cis hets. If you resent having that opined by some old cis het, then that falls on you, not on me.
I have not presumed to speak for any marginalized group or person. My essay was about organization, in which I compared my experience with it in the '60s to what I've observed recently.
posted by mule98J at 4:39 PM on November 17, 2023 [1 favorite]
I'm pretty sure I didn't go anywhere near that premise.
Laws may chip away at racism, for example, but they won't eliminate it. Notice that racism is still a major cultural feature of America despite some of the systemic versions of it that have been addressed legally. Check out how easy it was to toss out Roe v Wade despite nearly half a century of legal work by a shit-ton of dedicated people, not to mention mainstream organizations that supported it. Legal advances in gender issues have not yet gained very much traction among the cishet population. Some of this might be remedied by exposure.
Gays are more often portrayed favorably in the media than in my heyday. We have learned that they are not the creatures we may have thought they were in the 1950s. Lots of laws lagged behind a whole shit-ton of courage in making that happen: it took only what?--60 years before they were elevated by cis hets, first to the notion that being gay didn't equate to pedophilia, to the butt of jokes (Three's Company) to a conditional mainstream acceptance? Even now, their journey is not complete. I do not claim that cis hets must validate marginalized people. Not at all.
My tack argued that people with various objectives could wield more influence by finding the commonality in their marginal roles in our patriarchal, racist, misogynistic country dominated by cis hets. If you resent having that opined by some old cis het, then that falls on you, not on me.
I have not presumed to speak for any marginalized group or person. My essay was about organization, in which I compared my experience with it in the '60s to what I've observed recently.
posted by mule98J at 4:39 PM on November 17, 2023 [1 favorite]
a court in colorado ruled that trump engaged in insurrection but that the 14th amendment doesn't apply because 'president' is not explicitly listed as an 'officer' of the united states in the amendment, and that the amendment only applies to those whose oath is to 'support' the u.s. constitution. the president swears to 'preserve, protect and defend' the constitution, but not 'support' it.
this kind of cowardice is what's going to fuck this country in the end. applying the same bloody minded literalism means that a governor in texas or delaware can do an insurrection and still be a u.s. senator because they never swear to support the constitution, but an insurrectionist governor from tennessee is forbidden because they do swear to support the constitution. but that same tennessee governor *can* be president because it's not specifically listed.
there will always be someone somewhere who finds some reason not to do the obviously correct thing.
posted by logicpunk at 6:03 PM on November 17, 2023 [10 favorites]
this kind of cowardice is what's going to fuck this country in the end. applying the same bloody minded literalism means that a governor in texas or delaware can do an insurrection and still be a u.s. senator because they never swear to support the constitution, but an insurrectionist governor from tennessee is forbidden because they do swear to support the constitution. but that same tennessee governor *can* be president because it's not specifically listed.
there will always be someone somewhere who finds some reason not to do the obviously correct thing.
posted by logicpunk at 6:03 PM on November 17, 2023 [10 favorites]
^The Colorado ruling means Trump remains on that state's Republican primary ballot. Earlier this month, judges in Minnesota and Michigan dismissed the other 14th-Amendment-based lawsuits, so he's on ballots there. Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.) and two law enforcement officers testified in the Colorado case.
Also in Colorado: "Indiana University law professor Gerard Magliocca, perhaps the nation’s top scholar on the provision, testified in favor of removing Trump from the ballot. He explained how thousands of former Confederates were disqualified from office, including some who never took up arms, even one congressman-elect who had only written a letter-to-the-editor advocating violence against Union troops." Magliocca is one of the constitutional law experts whose views on Section 3 were cited by the plaintiffs in their lawsuit -- a draft of his paper, "Amnesty and Section Three of the Fourteenth Amendment," was published on Dec. 29, 2020.
posted by Iris Gambol at 6:38 PM on November 17, 2023 [4 favorites]
Also in Colorado: "Indiana University law professor Gerard Magliocca, perhaps the nation’s top scholar on the provision, testified in favor of removing Trump from the ballot. He explained how thousands of former Confederates were disqualified from office, including some who never took up arms, even one congressman-elect who had only written a letter-to-the-editor advocating violence against Union troops." Magliocca is one of the constitutional law experts whose views on Section 3 were cited by the plaintiffs in their lawsuit -- a draft of his paper, "Amnesty and Section Three of the Fourteenth Amendment," was published on Dec. 29, 2020.
posted by Iris Gambol at 6:38 PM on November 17, 2023 [4 favorites]
Check out how easy it was to toss out Roe v Wade despite nearly half a century of legal work by a shit-ton of dedicated people
To be fair, tossing out Roe v Wade was the end result of four decades of systematic white-anting by a shit-ton of dedicated people.
posted by flabdablet at 6:50 PM on November 17, 2023 [4 favorites]
To be fair, tossing out Roe v Wade was the end result of four decades of systematic white-anting by a shit-ton of dedicated people.
posted by flabdablet at 6:50 PM on November 17, 2023 [4 favorites]
The Minnesota ruling is just that they have no jurisdiction over a party process. If and when Trump is the nominee then they can take up the case.
posted by VTX at 7:00 PM on November 17, 2023 [6 favorites]
posted by VTX at 7:00 PM on November 17, 2023 [6 favorites]
a court in colorado ruled that trump engaged in insurrection but that the 14th amendment doesn't apply because 'president' is not explicitly listed as an 'officer' of the united states in the amendment, and that the amendment only applies to those whose oath is to 'support' the u.s. constitution. the president swears to 'preserve, protect and defend' the constitution, but not 'support' it.
Hmm.
Best can be said about that is that it just adds to the rapidly growing pile of urgent clarifications and reforms required for the failing US constitution.
posted by Pouteria at 9:18 PM on November 17, 2023
Hmm.
Best can be said about that is that it just adds to the rapidly growing pile of urgent clarifications and reforms required for the failing US constitution.
posted by Pouteria at 9:18 PM on November 17, 2023
The damn thing is well over 200 years old. That puts it firmly in fixer-upper territory, and it's a great shame that it's been allowed to deteriorate into such a state of disrepair.
posted by flabdablet at 11:29 PM on November 17, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by flabdablet at 11:29 PM on November 17, 2023 [2 favorites]
I hope the question of 14th Amendment applicability for the Presidency will be overturned on appeal if this eventually gets to the Supreme Court.
posted by interogative mood at 2:51 PM on November 18, 2023
posted by interogative mood at 2:51 PM on November 18, 2023
“Do Americans Value Democracy?” Thomas Zimmer, Democracy Americana, 19 November 2023
Brace yourselves, this isn’t going to be pretty: A deep dive into the best survey data we have on the ideas and attitudes that shape the political conflict in the United States – Part Iposted by ob1quixote at 8:19 AM on November 19, 2023 [4 favorites]
If you're a white cishet then by all means stay and fight the rearguard action to restore American democracy. I'm done pretending to care that this country cares about me.
My point is where are you going to go where people care about you and you feel safer? Cishet women in the US or anywhere aren’t a protected class with any power. I don’t pretend people care about me anywhere. I hope you find a safe haven, no matter what your beliefs are, that is what I wish for you and everyone else, even fisher folks.
posted by waving at 9:08 AM on November 19, 2023
My point is where are you going to go where people care about you and you feel safer? Cishet women in the US or anywhere aren’t a protected class with any power. I don’t pretend people care about me anywhere. I hope you find a safe haven, no matter what your beliefs are, that is what I wish for you and everyone else, even fisher folks.
posted by waving at 9:08 AM on November 19, 2023
“Channels of Rage,” A.R. Moxon, The Reframe, 19 November 2023
On the vile and corrosive replacement myth, those who push it and why they do, and what it really replaces.posted by ob1quixote at 11:02 AM on November 19, 2023
ob1quixote That article about American belief in democracy is really depressing, and also seems entirely accurate.
The truth is that a lot of people in the Republican party just simply do not think democracy is really all that great and would like to trim it back at the very least.
I was puzzled at how any Republican could see a Democratic victory as threat to democracy itself, but as the article reminded me, they live in a fantasy world where vast international forces conspired to deprive Donald Trump of his victory and that if the Democrats can keep power there will never be a fair election again.
They're fine with the 1/6 effort to storm the capitol and trying to murder Congress because they see that as real American patriots standing up against the forces of evil who stole the election.
posted by sotonohito at 1:35 PM on November 19, 2023 [1 favorite]
The truth is that a lot of people in the Republican party just simply do not think democracy is really all that great and would like to trim it back at the very least.
I was puzzled at how any Republican could see a Democratic victory as threat to democracy itself, but as the article reminded me, they live in a fantasy world where vast international forces conspired to deprive Donald Trump of his victory and that if the Democrats can keep power there will never be a fair election again.
They're fine with the 1/6 effort to storm the capitol and trying to murder Congress because they see that as real American patriots standing up against the forces of evil who stole the election.
posted by sotonohito at 1:35 PM on November 19, 2023 [1 favorite]
New polling: 70% of voters 18-34 disapprove of Biden's handling of the Gaza situation (and only 34% of all voters approve, with the only demographic in which a majority approve being voters over 65).
posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 1:47 PM on November 19, 2023
posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 1:47 PM on November 19, 2023
From the Rage article:
A whole lot of people today hold worldviews that appear to boil down to “that’s why a lot of people had to die today, and a lot more are going to have to die tomorrow.”
Sounds much (and it should) like a refrain that I've been happy to link here many times in various contexts, Matt Christman of Chapo Trap House:
"...we're coming to a point where there's gonna be ecological catastrophe, and that it's gonna require either massive redistribution of the ill-gotten gains of the first world, or genocide.
And these are the first people who have basically said, "Well if that's the choice, then I choose genocide", and they're getting everyone else ready, intellectually and emotionally, for why that's gonna be okay when it happens, why they're not really people."
I was puzzled at how any Republican could see a Democratic victory as threat to democracy itself, but as the article reminded me, they live in a fantasy world where vast international forces conspired to deprive Donald Trump of his victory and that if the Democrats can keep power there will never be a fair election again.
They're fine with the 1/6 effort to storm the capitol and trying to murder Congress because they see that as real American patriots standing up against the forces of evil who stole the election.
I will draw a line, though a faint and dotted line, between two groups on the right.
One group contains the people who honestly and truly believe that the conspiracies are real -- the Great Replacement, the Great Reset, Pizzagate, the FBI and CIA and Antifa and BLM and Nancy Pelosi masterminding J6, adrenochrome, Biden welcoming in UN soldiers in migrant garb for an eventual coup, the works.
And one group does not believe a word of any of that, but knows that drowning Americans in endless waves of conspiratorial nonsense and catchphrases and accusations and projection and not a Two Minutes Hate, but hours upon hours of it every single day is a VITAL TOOL for priming that first group to believe as much of it as they are able. Thusly, not one of them will lift a finger to stop everything from misinformation to propaganda to stochastic terrorism because they know that without that engine doing its work, they could not easily gain and retain the power that they currently hold.
It doesn't have to be plausible. It doesn't have to make logical sense. It just has to be said out loud by enough of what their base consider to be authority figures, and it will be accepted at face value.
And that is why the second group is far more evil than the first.
posted by delfin at 5:41 PM on November 19, 2023 [1 favorite]
A whole lot of people today hold worldviews that appear to boil down to “that’s why a lot of people had to die today, and a lot more are going to have to die tomorrow.”
Sounds much (and it should) like a refrain that I've been happy to link here many times in various contexts, Matt Christman of Chapo Trap House:
"...we're coming to a point where there's gonna be ecological catastrophe, and that it's gonna require either massive redistribution of the ill-gotten gains of the first world, or genocide.
And these are the first people who have basically said, "Well if that's the choice, then I choose genocide", and they're getting everyone else ready, intellectually and emotionally, for why that's gonna be okay when it happens, why they're not really people."
I was puzzled at how any Republican could see a Democratic victory as threat to democracy itself, but as the article reminded me, they live in a fantasy world where vast international forces conspired to deprive Donald Trump of his victory and that if the Democrats can keep power there will never be a fair election again.
They're fine with the 1/6 effort to storm the capitol and trying to murder Congress because they see that as real American patriots standing up against the forces of evil who stole the election.
I will draw a line, though a faint and dotted line, between two groups on the right.
One group contains the people who honestly and truly believe that the conspiracies are real -- the Great Replacement, the Great Reset, Pizzagate, the FBI and CIA and Antifa and BLM and Nancy Pelosi masterminding J6, adrenochrome, Biden welcoming in UN soldiers in migrant garb for an eventual coup, the works.
And one group does not believe a word of any of that, but knows that drowning Americans in endless waves of conspiratorial nonsense and catchphrases and accusations and projection and not a Two Minutes Hate, but hours upon hours of it every single day is a VITAL TOOL for priming that first group to believe as much of it as they are able. Thusly, not one of them will lift a finger to stop everything from misinformation to propaganda to stochastic terrorism because they know that without that engine doing its work, they could not easily gain and retain the power that they currently hold.
It doesn't have to be plausible. It doesn't have to make logical sense. It just has to be said out loud by enough of what their base consider to be authority figures, and it will be accepted at face value.
And that is why the second group is far more evil than the first.
posted by delfin at 5:41 PM on November 19, 2023 [1 favorite]
They are at war, after all. Which means we are at war, wether or not we want to be
posted by Jacen at 5:49 PM on November 19, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by Jacen at 5:49 PM on November 19, 2023 [2 favorites]
They're fine with the 1/6 effort to storm the capitol and trying to murder Congress because they see that as real American patriots standing up against the forces of evil who stole the election.
Yes, that's a perspective shared by many people. I don't know how much of its virtue signaling vs. belief, but I'm in Virginia, and I do occasionally see shirts and hats with pro-J6 stuff. Going to Busch Gardens (a major amusement park) is always eye-opening, given the geographically widespread and cross-class attendance base. Plenty of patriotic messaging tied to Trump, J6, AR-15s, etc.
And these are the first people who have basically said, "Well if that's the choice, then I choose genocide", and they're getting everyone else ready, intellectually and emotionally, for why that's gonna be okay when it happens, why they're not really people."
I don't think that's the case. Countless works of art (novels, games, films, etc.) have been built around zero-sum scenarios where people are "forced" into making terrible decisions, at scale. This has been a theme in art for a very long time, and I literally can't remember a time when I wasn't consuming stories predicated on disaster, dystopia, and resource scarcity. The current situation is horrifying, but I don't think it comes out of nowhere.
posted by cupcakeninja at 6:09 AM on November 20, 2023
Yes, that's a perspective shared by many people. I don't know how much of its virtue signaling vs. belief, but I'm in Virginia, and I do occasionally see shirts and hats with pro-J6 stuff. Going to Busch Gardens (a major amusement park) is always eye-opening, given the geographically widespread and cross-class attendance base. Plenty of patriotic messaging tied to Trump, J6, AR-15s, etc.
And these are the first people who have basically said, "Well if that's the choice, then I choose genocide", and they're getting everyone else ready, intellectually and emotionally, for why that's gonna be okay when it happens, why they're not really people."
I don't think that's the case. Countless works of art (novels, games, films, etc.) have been built around zero-sum scenarios where people are "forced" into making terrible decisions, at scale. This has been a theme in art for a very long time, and I literally can't remember a time when I wasn't consuming stories predicated on disaster, dystopia, and resource scarcity. The current situation is horrifying, but I don't think it comes out of nowhere.
posted by cupcakeninja at 6:09 AM on November 20, 2023
And now Joe Manchin is threatening to run as a 3rd party candidate in an effort to help Donald Trump win in 2024.
I'm not sure how successful he'd be. Manchin is no Ross Perot, and while I do despise the man so I'm hardly all that objective he doesn't seem to be very great at public speaking and I'm pretty sure most Democratic voters see him as one of three reasons we didn't get more out of our two years with the trifecta.
But in a tight election maybe he could pull enough votes from Biden to really screw us.
posted by sotonohito at 6:27 AM on November 20, 2023
I'm not sure how successful he'd be. Manchin is no Ross Perot, and while I do despise the man so I'm hardly all that objective he doesn't seem to be very great at public speaking and I'm pretty sure most Democratic voters see him as one of three reasons we didn't get more out of our two years with the trifecta.
But in a tight election maybe he could pull enough votes from Biden to really screw us.
posted by sotonohito at 6:27 AM on November 20, 2023
Would Manchin be more enticing than Stein or West?
posted by Selena777 at 7:32 AM on November 20, 2023
posted by Selena777 at 7:32 AM on November 20, 2023
Probably, if for no other reason than he's a sitting Senator and has a bit more name recognition.
As for Stein even in all the DSA stuff I get into no one speaks highly of her.
OTOH Manchin may just be threatening a run for grins. Or to gin up noise for an upcoming book or something. Or maybe he's hoping for a straight up payoff from the Democrats to bribe him not to run. He's a total jackass so who knows
posted by sotonohito at 8:35 AM on November 20, 2023
As for Stein even in all the DSA stuff I get into no one speaks highly of her.
OTOH Manchin may just be threatening a run for grins. Or to gin up noise for an upcoming book or something. Or maybe he's hoping for a straight up payoff from the Democrats to bribe him not to run. He's a total jackass so who knows
posted by sotonohito at 8:35 AM on November 20, 2023
Joe Manchin would be a very unsuccessful third-party candidate.
There is no widespread Silent Majority yearning for a moderate business-friendly centrist statesman type--that sentiment only exists inside the Beltway, on the occasional op-ed page, and in Mitt Romney's apartment.
And even if that was something people wanted, Joe Manchin is not remotely that person. He combines the charm and charisma of Ross Perot, the warmth and likeability of Pat Buchanan, and the moral and ethical consistency of Bill Clinton, and he would be among the most disliked people in the Senate if only people had heard of him.
When you've been in the game for as long as Manchin has, you ought to know better than to get high on your own supply.
posted by box at 9:11 AM on November 20, 2023 [5 favorites]
There is no widespread Silent Majority yearning for a moderate business-friendly centrist statesman type--that sentiment only exists inside the Beltway, on the occasional op-ed page, and in Mitt Romney's apartment.
And even if that was something people wanted, Joe Manchin is not remotely that person. He combines the charm and charisma of Ross Perot, the warmth and likeability of Pat Buchanan, and the moral and ethical consistency of Bill Clinton, and he would be among the most disliked people in the Senate if only people had heard of him.
When you've been in the game for as long as Manchin has, you ought to know better than to get high on your own supply.
posted by box at 9:11 AM on November 20, 2023 [5 favorites]
There's also "conspirituality" to contend with. Yoga association has been frequently mentioned as opposition to vaccines and such, exposing a passive component to a conservative revolution. It might be well for the liberally tolerant to know that it was always a slow and gradual improvement since feudal oppression, and going backwards is often sudden and more likely under social stress. Whoever claims progress to be inevitable is promoting magical thinking, among other signs of brainwashing. Lies and crimes are socially allowed in the service of absolute truth, which is why they invented it.
posted by Brian B. at 9:38 AM on November 20, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by Brian B. at 9:38 AM on November 20, 2023 [1 favorite]
Oof, this thread.
Also, if Biden croaks before next November, I think that's the ball game.
What if Trump croaks?
Here’s another troubling stat: an 80-year-old American male has a ~7% chance of dying before reaching their next birthday, per the SSA.
The stat's I'm seeing put it at 5.82%, but whatever. What about a 77-year-old American male, with a significantly less healthy lifestyle than the 80-year-old?
"Ageism" is gonna be the liberals way to blame when he looses
Ageism is real and rampant. I'm at the right age (early 50s) to clearly see it operating in both directions. So much of the informal anti-Biden sentiment I see among younger people on social media is absolutely drenched with ageism.
It's not Age, Trump is almost as old and "functions" (well not well but "better" in terms of normal day to day appearances of fitness).
You really think so? Even his vile "vermin" speech was delivered in a tired, listless mumble.
I'm not on tiktok, but when I see people who I am used to posting their usual takes upon every world crisis calling Biden "Genocide Joe" - that feels much worse.
Oh my. The extent to which a certain segment of the U.S. public wants the U.S. president to control all world events, and/or assumes that he does so, is... something. But also, left-wing social media is an echo chamber, in which people gain virality by one-upping each other with outrage and cherry-picked facts. And the younger folks on TikTok are also the least likely to vote anyway. You know who's most likely to vote? Old people... i.e., the group that supports Israel most strongly.
OK, that's all that I can wade thru and respond to. Peace out.
posted by Artifice_Eternity at 10:16 AM on November 20, 2023 [5 favorites]
Also, if Biden croaks before next November, I think that's the ball game.
What if Trump croaks?
Here’s another troubling stat: an 80-year-old American male has a ~7% chance of dying before reaching their next birthday, per the SSA.
The stat's I'm seeing put it at 5.82%, but whatever. What about a 77-year-old American male, with a significantly less healthy lifestyle than the 80-year-old?
"Ageism" is gonna be the liberals way to blame when he looses
Ageism is real and rampant. I'm at the right age (early 50s) to clearly see it operating in both directions. So much of the informal anti-Biden sentiment I see among younger people on social media is absolutely drenched with ageism.
It's not Age, Trump is almost as old and "functions" (well not well but "better" in terms of normal day to day appearances of fitness).
You really think so? Even his vile "vermin" speech was delivered in a tired, listless mumble.
I'm not on tiktok, but when I see people who I am used to posting their usual takes upon every world crisis calling Biden "Genocide Joe" - that feels much worse.
Oh my. The extent to which a certain segment of the U.S. public wants the U.S. president to control all world events, and/or assumes that he does so, is... something. But also, left-wing social media is an echo chamber, in which people gain virality by one-upping each other with outrage and cherry-picked facts. And the younger folks on TikTok are also the least likely to vote anyway. You know who's most likely to vote? Old people... i.e., the group that supports Israel most strongly.
OK, that's all that I can wade thru and respond to. Peace out.
posted by Artifice_Eternity at 10:16 AM on November 20, 2023 [5 favorites]
Do people vote on foreign policy, though?
I did, in 2004
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 6:00 PM on November 21, 2023 [1 favorite]
I did, in 2004
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 6:00 PM on November 21, 2023 [1 favorite]
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