Moscow v Kyiv, now with Brussels

December 14, 2023 12:11 PM

Putin tells Russia his war objectives are unchanged but EU to open membership talks with Ukraine and Moldova [BBC]

Reuters: EU agrees to open Ukraine membership talks in shock win for Kyiv
EuroNews: EU greenlights accession talks with Ukraine and Moldova after Viktor Orbán lifts veto and abstains
Grauniad: EU sidesteps Viktor Orbán to open membership talks with Ukraine

Ukraine previously

posted by chavenet (33 comments total)

Finally.
posted by Quasirandom at 12:36 PM on December 14, 2023 [3 favorites]

Would membership shift the war from Russia v Ukraine to (more officially) Russia v EU? If so, how would it change the fighting/support/funding/refugees/border activity etc.?
posted by Toddles at 12:39 PM on December 14, 2023 [2 favorites]

EU Mutual Defense Clause.
posted by BWA at 1:07 PM on December 14, 2023 [1 favorite]

I'd assume that Ukraine would not ascend to the Schengen Area immediately upon membership, so borders would still apply unlike within the Schengen Area. There are other EU countries who currently aren't in the Schengen Area.
posted by hippybear at 1:10 PM on December 14, 2023 [1 favorite]

How the hell could anyone agree to anything with Moldova without at least having a plan or policy on Transnistria?
posted by 1970s Antihero at 1:12 PM on December 14, 2023 [3 favorites]

NATO article 5

This is highly unlikely to be applied retroactively, and anyway the accession process will take some time (years...), with luck the war will be over long before then.

But the symbolism is powerful in and of itself.

NATO Secretary General with Prime Minister of Slovakia: support to Ukraine is not charity, it is an investment in our security
posted by chavenet at 1:13 PM on December 14, 2023 [2 favorites]

I'd assume that Ukraine would not ascend to the Schengen Area immediately upon membership, so borders would still apply unlike within the Schengen Area.

At the moment, Ukranian passport holders are allowed to travel within the Schengen area as if in it
posted by chavenet at 1:23 PM on December 14, 2023 [1 favorite]

Well, I mean, once you're IN the Schengen Area, you have freedom of movement within it. Without border checks within the zone, it would be impossible to execute restricting Ukrainians from free movement within the Schengen Zone.

But getting INTO the Schengen Area is not a thing that all EU countries are privy to, and I'm not sure that Ukraine as a country would be immediately taken into that level of internal assimilation.

But yes, of course, any Ukrainian who is within the Schengen Area has total freedom of movement.
posted by hippybear at 3:14 PM on December 14, 2023 [1 favorite]

I was unclear: Currently, Ukrainian citizens can enter Europe’s Schengen Zone without a visa or any prior authorization.
posted by chavenet at 3:21 PM on December 14, 2023 [2 favorites]

[This thread is about the EU, not NATO]
posted by agentofselection at 4:02 PM on December 14, 2023 [4 favorites]

The Schengen Treaty doesn't deal mutual defense; it deals with the free movement of people and goods within the Schengen area.

I recall reading in several places that an applicant country with an ongoing war on its territory cannot join the EU. Unfortunately I can't find those sources since Google is useless for digging up anything over two weeks old.

Since these talks will take time, it's a vote of confidence from the EU that Ukraine will succeed in defending its territory so that it can join the EU — and a signal to Putin that Ukraine has long-term support from countries bigger than his own.

How the hell could anyone agree to anything with Moldova without at least having a plan or policy on Transnistria?

This isn't yet an open door to join the EU. It's a big step in that direction — but it's still another planning and negotiating phase. Nonetheless, figuring out solutions for impossible problems like this is what the EU has been remarkably good at.
posted by UN at 5:51 PM on December 14, 2023 [3 favorites]

[This thread is about the EU, not NATO]

There are several EU-specific links in the body of the post, but that's not all there is. It looks pretty clear to me that the post is about the Russo-Ukranian war. NATO and its stance and actions regarding Ukraine seems obviously relevant.
posted by Flunkie at 7:23 PM on December 14, 2023 [3 favorites]

I can see Putin trying to play the delicate game of maybe attacking EU countries that aren't NATO countries so maybe the US and the UK aren't involved.
posted by hippybear at 7:30 PM on December 14, 2023 [2 favorites]

There is no mention of NATO in the links. Ukraine is not a NATO member and, as far as I can tell, there is no news about the status of its application. So bringing up Article 5 seems like a derail. I will drop the argument now to avoid further detailing.
posted by agentofselection at 8:13 PM on December 14, 2023 [3 favorites]

"Not about NATO" seems like a really weird thing to insist on, but in any case: "There is no mention of NATO in the links" doesn't seem particularly relevant.
posted by Flunkie at 8:26 PM on December 14, 2023 [1 favorite]

I recall reading in several places that an applicant country with an ongoing war on its territory cannot join the EU. Unfortunately I can't find those sources since Google is useless for digging up anything over two weeks old.

One of the Copenhagen criteria for countries joining the EU is the Rule of Law. Countries defending an existential war are often not in a state compatible with that. Indeed, Ukraine itself has been in a state of Martial Law since the 24th of February 2022.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 8:39 PM on December 14, 2023 [3 favorites]

Yes, Ukraine won't become an EU member until after the war. This is kind of symbolic.

Apart from the war, Ukraine has unacceptable levels of corruption and other issues that are incompatible with EU norms, and my sense is that there will be hard pressure on Ukraine to resolve these issues. But obviously not right now. As one commenter put it: many EU leaders are still traumatized by the last EU-extension, where several young democracies were included without sufficient preparation.
posted by mumimor at 1:43 AM on December 15, 2023

The requirements for becoming a candidate are here. There's also a list of candidate countries. Most of the others have been officially candidates for at least a decade.
posted by scorbet at 4:43 AM on December 15, 2023 [2 favorites]

FYI this happened literally the day the new Polish government was sworn in and Poland dropped its opposition. Hungary's Orban, on the other hand, was persuaded to take a strategically timed trip to the loo. Ukraine lost over half a year to Poland's previous government throwing a snit as a failed election gamble, but I suspect having the European Council's former two time boss show up will change the Brussels calculation considerably.

Incidentally Poland's new foreign affairs minister has admitted shooting at Russians in Afghanistan in 1986 and was delivering armoured SUVs to Ukrainian frontlines as recently as six months ago. If you want to support the same cause, toss a coin to your witcher.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 8:17 AM on December 15, 2023 [5 favorites]

Moldova and Ukraine have been candidate countries since last year. This is the next step, formal accession negotiations including a roadmap to implementing the EU acquis, the giant pile of regulations and directives on everything from labour laws to banana curvature. In comparison Poland took five years to finish the accession negotiations (after three years as a candidate), then another year to go through all formalities including a country wide referendum. Schengen accession took four more years and we still don't have the euro. It's a long road, but definitely progress.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 8:28 AM on December 15, 2023 [6 favorites]

maybe attacking EU countries that aren't NATO countries so maybe the US and the UK aren't involved.

Like Ireland or Malta!

from the mutual defence clause link... "the other Member States have an obligation to aid and assist it by all the means in their power, in accordance with Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations. This obligation of mutual defence is binding on all Member States. However, it does not affect the neutrality of certain Member States and is consistent with the commitments of countries that are NATO members."

How does that work?
posted by clavdivs at 2:39 PM on December 15, 2023

he other Member States have an obligation to aid and assist it by all the means in their power

If you are neutral as an overall position it is presumably not in your power to take up arms. There will undoubtedly be other ways in which you can help.
posted by plonkee at 3:29 PM on December 15, 2023

If you remember, many of the EU members who now are offering much more full support were at first pledging things like 1000 soldier helmets when asked to give aid.

Moving the EU to the point where they're in the position where they're giving pretty healthy aid compared to their means and now taking this vote to move things forward a step as a symbolic rebuke of the US House Leadership holding up further aid to Ukraine, which is exactly what this was... Is a bit of a miracle from across the run of this war.

If the US political bickering causes this war to falter and Ukraine to be taken because of petty Mike Minion and his traitorous fellow travelers... the world will notice and their names will be written into the history books as the authors of this, just as much as Kissinger is considered the creator of Pol Pot.
posted by hippybear at 3:41 PM on December 15, 2023 [3 favorites]

It's complicated

Concerning the defense clause, who handles the military decisions if an EU country is attacked.
posted by clavdivs at 5:38 PM on December 15, 2023

The requirements for becoming a candidate are here.

Access denied

Having a UK passport really sucks these days...
posted by thatwhichfalls at 7:47 AM on December 16, 2023

Access denied

That's not a UK thing, it seems they've changed the structure of the site or something - this should work.
posted by scorbet at 9:35 AM on December 16, 2023 [1 favorite]

Anyone have a link or information on what the current situation on the front is?

I've been mostly off of social media the last month or two and it the situation doesn't get much coverage right now where I am (far, far away). From what I can gather, Russia is maintaining their extremely heavy casualties for weeks and months now (around 1000 killed/wounded along with dozens of vehicles and equipment daily (!)) but with no significant changes in territory? Is this, from the Ukrainian perspective, the plan? "Don't interrupt the enemy while they're making a mistake" and all that...

I mean, would anyone have expected a year or two ago that Ukraine would be taking out russian personnel and equipment at this rate? Is there even a point in making a costly attack while Ukraine is inflicting so many casualties?
posted by UN at 2:04 AM on December 17, 2023

Anyone have a link or information on what the current situation on the front is?

I've been mostly off of social media the last month or two and it the situation doesn't get much coverage right now where I am (far, far away).

The ISW reports and maps (linked there, also available on their social media posts) seem to be accurate and informed, and are updated frequently if not daily.
posted by Dip Flash at 7:02 AM on December 17, 2023 [1 favorite]

I've been relying on the ISW reports for details of what's happening on the ground and shaping the conflict, augmented by Daily Kos updates for context.
posted by Quasirandom at 7:49 AM on December 18, 2023 [1 favorite]

Ukrainian soldiers storming eastern bank of Dnipro fear their mission is hopeless

No matter how sneaky the Ukrainian small units try to be, it’s not hard for the Russian forces holding the eastern bank to see them coming. Russian drones are always on the hunt, boat motors are loud and suitable troop-landing spots are few.

Once Ukrainians are spotted, the Russians either chase them with first-person-view (FPV) drones or drop mortars on them. Bodies lost to the river are nearly impossible to retrieve, the soldiers say.

Making it across is just the beginning. Plodding hundreds of meters through marsh and knee-high water, with no cover from mortars, artillery, tanks, drones and aircraft, is almost as scary.

The Ukrainian soldiers maintain distance from each other so at least one of them survives to call in an evacuation.

“(KAB guided aerial bombs) are the least scary because you understand that they will hit, and you won’t feel anything,” reconnaissance soldier Oleksandr, 25, said.

All these risks are in service to what the soldiers call a small, high-stakes operation to probe the Russian fortifications on the eastern bank of Ukraine’s biggest river, around a kilometer wide in its southern parts, flowing through Kherson Oblast.

Asami Terajima / Kyiv Independent
posted by UN at 9:12 PM on December 18, 2023

Ukraine shot down several Russian jets over the last few days. It seemed like they were shot down with Patriot missiles, but maybe it was F-16?
posted by 1970s Antihero at 1:53 PM on December 25, 2023 [1 favorite]

Ukrainian Air Force destroys Russian landing ship Novocherkassk in occupied Crimea
posted by UN at 11:52 PM on December 25, 2023 [4 favorites]

Ukrainian Air Force destroys Russian landing ship Novocherkassk in occupied Crimea

This thread on twitter/x has a whole series of videos and photos of the exploding ship. This photo shows the aftermath clearly; that ship is history. Whether or not the ship was actually carrying a load of drones as has been claimed, it was clearly carrying something explosive. There are now pieces of the ship scattered around the downtown, with one piece mapped as more than half a kilometer away from the explosion.
posted by Dip Flash at 6:58 AM on December 26, 2023 [2 favorites]