“I am today suspending my campaign"
January 21, 2024 12:31 PM Subscribe
Exit DeSantis. Florida governor Ron DeSantis ended his campaign and endorsed Trump just before the New Hampshire primary.
From the New York Times story:
“Trump is superior to the current incumbent, Joe Biden. That is clear. I signed a pledge to support the Republican nominee, and I will honor that pledge."
From the New York Times story:
“Trump is superior to the current incumbent, Joe Biden. That is clear. I signed a pledge to support the Republican nominee, and I will honor that pledge."
I agree with Going to Maine and am pleased that DeSantis is not going to New Hampshire.
posted by TwoWordReview at 12:41 PM on January 21 [9 favorites]
posted by TwoWordReview at 12:41 PM on January 21 [9 favorites]
Fascist doubles down on fascism, news at 11
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 12:44 PM on January 21 [9 favorites]
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 12:44 PM on January 21 [9 favorites]
Well, he ended his campaign the way he started it.
With an awkward Twitter video.
(He did go to New Hampshire, where he delivered these stirring remarks:
“It’s very simple. I tell you what I’m going to do: You entrust me with your vote and elect me to office and I proceed to get into office and do what I told you I would do.”’
Can't imagine why that didn't catch on.)
posted by box at 12:44 PM on January 21 [14 favorites]
With an awkward Twitter video.
(He did go to New Hampshire, where he delivered these stirring remarks:
“It’s very simple. I tell you what I’m going to do: You entrust me with your vote and elect me to office and I proceed to get into office and do what I told you I would do.”’
Can't imagine why that didn't catch on.)
posted by box at 12:44 PM on January 21 [14 favorites]
much tweeting about how he should have been forced to carry his campaign to term
posted by lalochezia at 12:45 PM on January 21 [101 favorites]
posted by lalochezia at 12:45 PM on January 21 [101 favorites]
At least there's some hilarity along the way:
posted by airing nerdy laundry at 12:48 PM on January 21 [12 favorites]
“Staffers are putting their dedication and devotion to electing Gov. DeSantis and they come in and the CEO, the chairman of the organization, is sitting there working on a [jigsaw] puzzle for hours,” said a Never Back Down staffer who was there.My fav comment: Maybe he thought DeSantis could actually beat Trump if he could just finish that puzzle.
posted by airing nerdy laundry at 12:48 PM on January 21 [12 favorites]
Would it be fair to guess that internal polling suggested he would be trounced by Haley on Tuesday and rather than be embarrassed before heading to her home state, they shut up shop, knowing the moneys already run dry without a clear shot in the arm?
Now that she’s the only serious challenger, does Haley actually have a path to victory?
posted by TwoWordReview at 12:52 PM on January 21 [7 favorites]
Now that she’s the only serious challenger, does Haley actually have a path to victory?
posted by TwoWordReview at 12:52 PM on January 21 [7 favorites]
In which we learn SEO is shitty for search and shitty for national politics.
posted by notyou at 12:52 PM on January 21 [2 favorites]
posted by notyou at 12:52 PM on January 21 [2 favorites]
running for VP this whole time.
posted by heyitsgogi at 12:53 PM on January 21 [6 favorites]
posted by heyitsgogi at 12:53 PM on January 21 [6 favorites]
Now that she’s the only serious challengerlol @ "serious"
posted by Flunkie at 12:54 PM on January 21 [9 favorites]
pity us who live in florida
learns desantis is going to be spending more time in state
...well fuck.
posted by logicpunk at 12:55 PM on January 21 [40 favorites]
learns desantis is going to be spending more time in state
...well fuck.
posted by logicpunk at 12:55 PM on January 21 [40 favorites]
Aw, couldn't have happened to a nicer guy. Don't let the door hit those lift boots on the way out, Ron. And don't bother coming back.
I suppose Haley will steal some of RonRon's voters, but obviously it's too little too late. MAGA cultists will never waver from Trump. The real question is who Trump's VP pick will be, but it probably doesn't really matter. Pence was fairly obscure and unknown, so Trump will likely go that route than pick a spotlight stealer like Vivek.
posted by zardoz at 12:56 PM on January 21 [3 favorites]
I suppose Haley will steal some of RonRon's voters, but obviously it's too little too late. MAGA cultists will never waver from Trump. The real question is who Trump's VP pick will be, but it probably doesn't really matter. Pence was fairly obscure and unknown, so Trump will likely go that route than pick a spotlight stealer like Vivek.
posted by zardoz at 12:56 PM on January 21 [3 favorites]
I’m sorry that more Republican money won’t be wasted on this futile campaign. My heart goes out to the people of Florida.
posted by GenjiandProust at 1:02 PM on January 21 [24 favorites]
posted by GenjiandProust at 1:02 PM on January 21 [24 favorites]
As a soon to be resident of SC, I am baffled by the way that state’s Republican leadership seems to have totally abandoned their own Haley in favor of Trump. I see reporting on how the Republican establishment detests Trump (and in the case of Christie, Cheney, and Romney they actually say it) but when all they need to do is keep quiet and see what happens, they go out of their way to torpedo the only option besides Trump that is left. Of course, I’m not too sure who I want to win the primary anyway. Trump is more likely to lose the general election, but will be worse if he actually wins. Haley, on the other hand, is more likely to win, but will be only slightly better. Of course, if the Supreme Court rules that the president is immune from prosecution, perhaps Biden will have his opponent rounded up and thrown in Gitmo (or something).
posted by TedW at 1:06 PM on January 21 [7 favorites]
posted by TedW at 1:06 PM on January 21 [7 favorites]
> Now that she’s the only serious challenger, does Haley actually have a path to victory?
Before the Iowa caucuses, there was some discussion on the 538 podcast re: assigning probabilities on who the eventual republican nominee would be. IIRC, the folks who were willing to state probabilities put Trump at around 90%. Before DeSantis dropped out Trump was still beating the other contenders by a margin of ~30% -- that's a very wide margin. The media is trying to make a news cycle about Haley, as the media has to write about something.
The 10% non-Trump probability was to account for the long tail of idiosyncratic things that could happen, that are basically impossible to predict from historical data. E.g. Supreme Court rules Trump ineligible to hold office, Trump kicks an own goal and does something so extreme it disqualifies him in the eyes of the public (what would this even be?), one of the various court cases catches up with Trump and inflicts serious damage somehow. All these and more could happen. Are they the likely outcome? No.
DeSantis dropping out is consistent with the mainstream 90% scenario of Trump being the nominee.
posted by are-coral-made at 1:07 PM on January 21 [10 favorites]
Before the Iowa caucuses, there was some discussion on the 538 podcast re: assigning probabilities on who the eventual republican nominee would be. IIRC, the folks who were willing to state probabilities put Trump at around 90%. Before DeSantis dropped out Trump was still beating the other contenders by a margin of ~30% -- that's a very wide margin. The media is trying to make a news cycle about Haley, as the media has to write about something.
The 10% non-Trump probability was to account for the long tail of idiosyncratic things that could happen, that are basically impossible to predict from historical data. E.g. Supreme Court rules Trump ineligible to hold office, Trump kicks an own goal and does something so extreme it disqualifies him in the eyes of the public (what would this even be?), one of the various court cases catches up with Trump and inflicts serious damage somehow. All these and more could happen. Are they the likely outcome? No.
DeSantis dropping out is consistent with the mainstream 90% scenario of Trump being the nominee.
posted by are-coral-made at 1:07 PM on January 21 [10 favorites]
What a pathetic ending to a pathetic campaign by a pathetic excuse for a human being.
posted by tommasz at 1:09 PM on January 21 [21 favorites]
posted by tommasz at 1:09 PM on January 21 [21 favorites]
The DeSantis Team Ran the Worst Campaign in History
The bizarre decisions behind a $130 million debacle.
posted by robbyrobs at 1:13 PM on January 21 [13 favorites]
The bizarre decisions behind a $130 million debacle.
posted by robbyrobs at 1:13 PM on January 21 [13 favorites]
Now, that's a real shame.
posted by praemunire at 1:14 PM on January 21 [5 favorites]
posted by praemunire at 1:14 PM on January 21 [5 favorites]
As we drunk walk into protracted constitutional crisis and the foreign relations equivalent of throwing up on ourselves in important company, Ron DeSantis‘ thorough public humiliation is one of the few bright spots.
As a soon to be resident of SC, I am baffled by the way that state’s Republican leadership seems to have totally abandoned their own Haley in favor of Trump.
It’s an authoritarian party now – they can only have one leader.
posted by ryanshepard at 1:17 PM on January 21 [34 favorites]
As a soon to be resident of SC, I am baffled by the way that state’s Republican leadership seems to have totally abandoned their own Haley in favor of Trump.
It’s an authoritarian party now – they can only have one leader.
posted by ryanshepard at 1:17 PM on January 21 [34 favorites]
I am baffled by the way that state’s Republican leadership seems to have totally abandoned their own Haley in favor of Trump
What terrifies Republicans is Trump running as an Independent .
If Trump lost in the primary ( no chance) would he concede and support the winner?
Ha ha No chance.
He'd scream rigged and run as an independent
posted by yyz at 1:17 PM on January 21 [18 favorites]
What terrifies Republicans is Trump running as an Independent .
If Trump lost in the primary ( no chance) would he concede and support the winner?
Ha ha No chance.
He'd scream rigged and run as an independent
posted by yyz at 1:17 PM on January 21 [18 favorites]
Man, fuck that guy. All the damage that he's done to Florida (that he did to raise his national profile and burnish his cred as a certified fascist) would take lifetimes to repair (if there were anyone left down here with any power who wanted to repair it, which thanks to him there really isn't.)
posted by Daily Alice at 1:40 PM on January 21 [14 favorites]
posted by Daily Alice at 1:40 PM on January 21 [14 favorites]
The real question is who Trump's VP pick will be
Ivanka.
posted by kristi at 1:45 PM on January 21 [6 favorites]
Ivanka.
posted by kristi at 1:45 PM on January 21 [6 favorites]
First woman US president will be Stefanik when Trump kicks the bucket in Winter 2025-2026. This will be the final straw that kicks Hillary into catatonia or a walk in the woods that never ends, covering the Appalachian Trail, Pacific Crest Trail and first woman to cross the Darien Gap solo.
posted by ASCII Costanza head at 1:49 PM on January 21 [16 favorites]
posted by ASCII Costanza head at 1:49 PM on January 21 [16 favorites]
I can’t say I’m worried about Haley in the general if something happens to Trump. Grief and misogyny would give us the lowest Republican turnout in a generation.
posted by The Monster at the End of this Thread at 1:53 PM on January 21 [11 favorites]
posted by The Monster at the End of this Thread at 1:53 PM on January 21 [11 favorites]
Yeah, Haley and TFG don't seem to get along very well...
What a fucking shame. C'mon Florida, kick this pile of poo to the curb. (Not going to happen, I know, but, we can dream, yea?).
posted by Windopaene at 1:54 PM on January 21 [3 favorites]
What a fucking shame. C'mon Florida, kick this pile of poo to the curb. (Not going to happen, I know, but, we can dream, yea?).
posted by Windopaene at 1:54 PM on January 21 [3 favorites]
I fail to find relief in any of this.
By quitting early and pledging his fealty to Trump, DeSantis is preserving his chances for a hard-MAGA presidential run in 2028, along the lines of everything he has been doing so far.
And in the current year, if Haley miraculously becomes the GOP nominee, which is unlikely, she will likely beat Biden, but then she will govern much further to the right than the moderates who elect her might hope for, being completely at the mercy of the MAGA crowd and afraid to provoke them in the slightest. Unbridled brutality, racism, authoritarianism, hatred, and sheer cruelty are at this point so fundamental to the GOP platform, and the consequences of deviating from these so vehement, as to scare any Republican into following along.
There is no moderate nor honorable Republican party left. Not with Nikki Haley, not with anyone.
posted by splitpeasoup at 1:58 PM on January 21 [33 favorites]
By quitting early and pledging his fealty to Trump, DeSantis is preserving his chances for a hard-MAGA presidential run in 2028, along the lines of everything he has been doing so far.
And in the current year, if Haley miraculously becomes the GOP nominee, which is unlikely, she will likely beat Biden, but then she will govern much further to the right than the moderates who elect her might hope for, being completely at the mercy of the MAGA crowd and afraid to provoke them in the slightest. Unbridled brutality, racism, authoritarianism, hatred, and sheer cruelty are at this point so fundamental to the GOP platform, and the consequences of deviating from these so vehement, as to scare any Republican into following along.
There is no moderate nor honorable Republican party left. Not with Nikki Haley, not with anyone.
posted by splitpeasoup at 1:58 PM on January 21 [33 favorites]
First woman US president will be Stefanik when Trump kicks the bucket in Winter 2025-2026.
The reason Donald Trump will not appoint Elise Stefanik as Vice President is because every time he looks at her he gets the vibe of " Are you dead yet? Are you dead yet? Are you dead yet?"
...
And he gets enough of that at home.
posted by dannyboybell at 2:00 PM on January 21 [23 favorites]
The reason Donald Trump will not appoint Elise Stefanik as Vice President is because every time he looks at her he gets the vibe of " Are you dead yet? Are you dead yet? Are you dead yet?"
...
And he gets enough of that at home.
posted by dannyboybell at 2:00 PM on January 21 [23 favorites]
The reason Donald Trump will not appoint Elise Stefanik as Vice President is because every time he looks at her he gets the vibe of " Are you dead yet? Are you dead yet? Are you dead yet?"I'm not 100% convinced that Trump groks that he's mortal.
posted by Flunkie at 2:04 PM on January 21 [18 favorites]
By quitting early and pledging his fealty to Trump, DeSantis is preserving his chances for a hard-MAGA presidential run in 2028
If any donors were willing to support him again, hallelujah, because it means the Republican Party has zero viable candidates.
posted by snofoam at 2:12 PM on January 21 [5 favorites]
If any donors were willing to support him again, hallelujah, because it means the Republican Party has zero viable candidates.
posted by snofoam at 2:12 PM on January 21 [5 favorites]
$5 sez Haley will throw in with Trump, Trump wins, then pops his clogs while in office, and Haley's the first female US prez.
posted by slater at 2:12 PM on January 21
posted by slater at 2:12 PM on January 21
Haley, on the other hand, is more likely to win
Haley miraculously becomes the GOP nominee, which is unlikely, she will likely beat Biden
C'mon, y'all, deep breaths.
Haley "likely to beat Biden" is a media push resulting from a handful of polls, and 1) polls this far out from the election are garbage plus 2) polls and media reporting on polls have gotten noticeably less reliable over the last few years. Trump's cult of personality has warped all possible predictions beyond sanity. Will the MAGAts back Haley because Republican or will they drop out because she's not the Glorious Leader? Will the anti-Trump white suburbanites swing back to Republican or will they decide Biden is pretty good? Nobody fucking knows, and especially nobody fucking knows because it depends a LOT on when & how Haley gets the nomination. I mean, she won't win the primary, but if Trump strokes out in May that's one thing, if he gets convicted in August & the RNC unilaterally shoves her in that's another.
We work to beat the Rethuglicans whoever they are, let's not rend our garments and wail over the unbeatable Haley quite yet.
posted by soundguy99 at 2:22 PM on January 21 [42 favorites]
Haley miraculously becomes the GOP nominee, which is unlikely, she will likely beat Biden
C'mon, y'all, deep breaths.
Haley "likely to beat Biden" is a media push resulting from a handful of polls, and 1) polls this far out from the election are garbage plus 2) polls and media reporting on polls have gotten noticeably less reliable over the last few years. Trump's cult of personality has warped all possible predictions beyond sanity. Will the MAGAts back Haley because Republican or will they drop out because she's not the Glorious Leader? Will the anti-Trump white suburbanites swing back to Republican or will they decide Biden is pretty good? Nobody fucking knows, and especially nobody fucking knows because it depends a LOT on when & how Haley gets the nomination. I mean, she won't win the primary, but if Trump strokes out in May that's one thing, if he gets convicted in August & the RNC unilaterally shoves her in that's another.
We work to beat the Rethuglicans whoever they are, let's not rend our garments and wail over the unbeatable Haley quite yet.
posted by soundguy99 at 2:22 PM on January 21 [42 favorites]
Now that she’s the only serious challenger, does Haley actually have a path to victory?
I thought he was running against Nancy Pelosi.
posted by swift at 2:34 PM on January 21 [27 favorites]
I thought he was running against Nancy Pelosi.
posted by swift at 2:34 PM on January 21 [27 favorites]
I don't feel anything about this, honestly. It's like a Batman movie where the Joker is ramping up to massacre Gotham City, and they throw in a subplot about the Scarecrow stepping on a rake and knocking himself out. It's kind of funny, but the real problem is still The Problem.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 2:34 PM on January 21 [70 favorites]
posted by kittens for breakfast at 2:34 PM on January 21 [70 favorites]
Trumps' VP will probably be "Also, Trump."
posted by GenjiandProust at 2:36 PM on January 21 [8 favorites]
posted by GenjiandProust at 2:36 PM on January 21 [8 favorites]
I'm so bored with how much I hate everything
posted by DeepSeaHaggis at 2:39 PM on January 21 [86 favorites]
posted by DeepSeaHaggis at 2:39 PM on January 21 [86 favorites]
NYT tomorrow: Why Liberals Should Be Sad to See DeSantis Depart
posted by Reyturner at 2:40 PM on January 21 [50 favorites]
posted by Reyturner at 2:40 PM on January 21 [50 favorites]
much tweeting about how he should have been forced to carry his campaign to term
Not only did he abort his campaign, but he traveled out-of-state to do it.
posted by MtDewd at 2:44 PM on January 21 [76 favorites]
Not only did he abort his campaign, but he traveled out-of-state to do it.
posted by MtDewd at 2:44 PM on January 21 [76 favorites]
By quitting early and pledging his fealty to Trump, DeSantis is preserving his chances for a hard-MAGA presidential run in 2028, along the lines of everything he has been doing so far.
I'm willing to predict that DeSantis is a non-starter in 2028. He's proven he's a charisma black hole and Trump's weird charismatic hold is the fuel MAGA runs on. If Trump is still alive he's either running again or (if he wins this time) having a stand-in run (maybe Trump Jr?) and being VP on the ticket on the understanding that the stand-in resigns immediately upon assuming office and Trump gets two more years. If Trump is dead in 2028, I'm really hoping MAGA dies with him, though I fear it will be taken up by someone currently cultivating a toxic following online (Joe Rogan 2028?).
posted by nangua at 2:50 PM on January 21 [7 favorites]
I'm willing to predict that DeSantis is a non-starter in 2028. He's proven he's a charisma black hole and Trump's weird charismatic hold is the fuel MAGA runs on. If Trump is still alive he's either running again or (if he wins this time) having a stand-in run (maybe Trump Jr?) and being VP on the ticket on the understanding that the stand-in resigns immediately upon assuming office and Trump gets two more years. If Trump is dead in 2028, I'm really hoping MAGA dies with him, though I fear it will be taken up by someone currently cultivating a toxic following online (Joe Rogan 2028?).
posted by nangua at 2:50 PM on January 21 [7 favorites]
i just had a vision of democratic strategy, for better and/or for worse, and it was a variation on the ol' infamous Steve Balmer of Microsoft "developers" chant:
Abortion, abortion, abortion, abortion.
Abortion. 👏 Abortion! 👏 Abortion! 👏 Abortion! 👏😓
posted by glonous keming at 2:51 PM on January 21 [12 favorites]
Abortion, abortion, abortion, abortion.
Abortion. 👏 Abortion! 👏 Abortion! 👏 Abortion! 👏😓
posted by glonous keming at 2:51 PM on January 21 [12 favorites]
Said DeSantis: “He’s running a campaign about putting himself and his issues first. That’s what he cares about. You can be the most worthless Republican in America, but if you kiss the ring, he’ll say you’re wonderful. You can be the strongest, most dynamic, successful Republican and conservative in America, but if you don’t kiss that ring, then he’ll try to trash you.”And after he said that, he kissed the ring.
posted by clawsoon at 2:52 PM on January 21 [14 favorites]
running for VP this whole time.
That could be interesting — an elector in the electoral college gets two votes, and they can't vote for two people from the same state.
posted by nathan_teske at 2:52 PM on January 21 [3 favorites]
That could be interesting — an elector in the electoral college gets two votes, and they can't vote for two people from the same state.
posted by nathan_teske at 2:52 PM on January 21 [3 favorites]
NYT tomorrow: Why Liberals Should Be Sad to See DeSantis Depart
@NYT Pitchbot: Today is the day that Ron DeSantis truly became president
posted by clawsoon at 2:54 PM on January 21 [17 favorites]
@NYT Pitchbot: Today is the day that Ron DeSantis truly became president
posted by clawsoon at 2:54 PM on January 21 [17 favorites]
He must be really out of money; I thought he'd hang in longer. I wonder if some other GOPer could enter the primaries at this late stage.
posted by theora55 at 2:56 PM on January 21
posted by theora55 at 2:56 PM on January 21
He was too woke.
posted by chronkite at 3:01 PM on January 21 [6 favorites]
posted by chronkite at 3:01 PM on January 21 [6 favorites]
> Now that she’s the only serious challenger, does Haley actually have a path to victory?
It would be a miracle if Haley were to win NH plus, say, one other state.
It's really hard to figure out what that other state even could be.
And her chances in New Hampshire are only moderate at best.
So, in short: No.
posted by flug at 3:04 PM on January 21
It would be a miracle if Haley were to win NH plus, say, one other state.
It's really hard to figure out what that other state even could be.
And her chances in New Hampshire are only moderate at best.
So, in short: No.
posted by flug at 3:04 PM on January 21
I only wish it could have been more humiliating for him.
posted by Dip Flash at 3:06 PM on January 21 [32 favorites]
posted by Dip Flash at 3:06 PM on January 21 [32 favorites]
Haley "likely to beat Biden" is a media push…
Which is why I included the qualifier “more”; definitely not a done deal even if she does win the nomination.
posted by TedW at 3:09 PM on January 21
Which is why I included the qualifier “more”; definitely not a done deal even if she does win the nomination.
posted by TedW at 3:09 PM on January 21
It would be a miracle if Haley were to win NH plus, say, one other state.
It's really hard to figure out what that other state even could be.
Blue or blue-leaning states with diverse populations, educated voters, and open primaries--Minnesota, Virginia, Illinois, Vermont at least hits two out of three--seem like the most likely Haley pickups, but also I have no idea what I'm talking about.
posted by box at 3:16 PM on January 21 [3 favorites]
It's really hard to figure out what that other state even could be.
Blue or blue-leaning states with diverse populations, educated voters, and open primaries--Minnesota, Virginia, Illinois, Vermont at least hits two out of three--seem like the most likely Haley pickups, but also I have no idea what I'm talking about.
posted by box at 3:16 PM on January 21 [3 favorites]
It's hard to see this as significant unless it inspires Haley to be more aggressive in her attacks on Trump. He's obviously going to be the nominee (short of a catastrophic medical event/legal development), but hopefully the primary will damage him further in the eyes of enough moderate Republicans that still exist.
posted by coffeecat at 3:17 PM on January 21 [2 favorites]
posted by coffeecat at 3:17 PM on January 21 [2 favorites]
DeSantis went full Cruz and endorsed Trump. His tears are delicious. Personally, I think Trump will come out and say he doesn’t need a VP.
posted by misterpatrick at 3:20 PM on January 21 [3 favorites]
posted by misterpatrick at 3:20 PM on January 21 [3 favorites]
does Haley actually have a path to victory?
Not being Donald Trump was a path to victory for at least 1 person. Not sure if not being Donald Trump and then not being Joe Biden is a path to the final victory.
Money for the campaign matters. The Koch cash pile endorsed her end of Nov/start of Dec last year. Not sure what other traditional piles of money have tossed their vaults of cash to Donald at this point.
If Donald doesn't have good showings in the next few primaries money should move off the sidelines and to Haley. And last primary challenge Donald benefited from having his base VS the 15 or so others. He still has his base but if money wins elections and he only has the cash of his base not sure how Teflon Don slides in as the nominee.
I'm reminded of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cthulhu_for_President - with an effective 2 party system its a bad choice and a bad choice but different.
posted by rough ashlar at 3:28 PM on January 21
Not being Donald Trump was a path to victory for at least 1 person. Not sure if not being Donald Trump and then not being Joe Biden is a path to the final victory.
Money for the campaign matters. The Koch cash pile endorsed her end of Nov/start of Dec last year. Not sure what other traditional piles of money have tossed their vaults of cash to Donald at this point.
If Donald doesn't have good showings in the next few primaries money should move off the sidelines and to Haley. And last primary challenge Donald benefited from having his base VS the 15 or so others. He still has his base but if money wins elections and he only has the cash of his base not sure how Teflon Don slides in as the nominee.
I'm reminded of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cthulhu_for_President - with an effective 2 party system its a bad choice and a bad choice but different.
posted by rough ashlar at 3:28 PM on January 21
Trump's going to be the nominee. Any other thoughts are wishcasting. He's inevitable.
We're in a Groundhog's Day election cycle, only worse this time.
posted by hippybear at 3:51 PM on January 21 [7 favorites]
We're in a Groundhog's Day election cycle, only worse this time.
posted by hippybear at 3:51 PM on January 21 [7 favorites]
It's hard to see this as significant unless it inspires Haley to be more aggressive in her attacks on Trump.
She's started at least somewhat ramping up her attacks, and has been talking about him being old and confused. To me (not a Republican voter, so what do I know?), going after both Trump and Biden for their age and "it's time for something new" seems like probably her best shot, since they are both geezers and neither of them is exactly riding a huge wave of popularity.
posted by Dip Flash at 3:54 PM on January 21 [3 favorites]
She's started at least somewhat ramping up her attacks, and has been talking about him being old and confused. To me (not a Republican voter, so what do I know?), going after both Trump and Biden for their age and "it's time for something new" seems like probably her best shot, since they are both geezers and neither of them is exactly riding a huge wave of popularity.
posted by Dip Flash at 3:54 PM on January 21 [3 favorites]
I wonder if some other GOPer could enter the primaries at this late stage.I think the only one with any vaguely real chance at this point is the Shrieking White-Hot Sphere of Pure Rage.
posted by Flunkie at 3:55 PM on January 21 [17 favorites]
What a fucking shame. C'mon Florida, kick this pile of poo to the curb. (Not going to happen, I know, but, we can dream, yea?).
Floridians please note that though making this happen would be tough, if you somehow pulled it off it would be very, VERY funny.
posted by Artw at 3:56 PM on January 21 [4 favorites]
Floridians please note that though making this happen would be tough, if you somehow pulled it off it would be very, VERY funny.
posted by Artw at 3:56 PM on January 21 [4 favorites]
Money for the campaign matters. The Koch cash pile endorsed her end of Nov/start of Dec last year. Not sure what other traditional piles of money have tossed their vaults of cash to Donald at this point.
If Donald doesn't have good showings in the next few primaries money should move off the sidelines and to Haley. And last primary challenge Donald benefited from having his base VS the 15 or so others. He still has his base but if money wins elections and he only has the cash of his base not sure how Teflon Don slides in as the nominee.
Trump spent remarkably little during the 2016 primaries because of course he did. He really only traveled around giving his rants to crowds. Jeb Bush spent $130 million on his presidential campaign and Trump blew him out of the water.
The problem for Haley is not a money problem. It is a no-real-constituency problem.
posted by mightygodking at 3:59 PM on January 21 [13 favorites]
If Donald doesn't have good showings in the next few primaries money should move off the sidelines and to Haley. And last primary challenge Donald benefited from having his base VS the 15 or so others. He still has his base but if money wins elections and he only has the cash of his base not sure how Teflon Don slides in as the nominee.
Trump spent remarkably little during the 2016 primaries because of course he did. He really only traveled around giving his rants to crowds. Jeb Bush spent $130 million on his presidential campaign and Trump blew him out of the water.
The problem for Haley is not a money problem. It is a no-real-constituency problem.
posted by mightygodking at 3:59 PM on January 21 [13 favorites]
I'm reminded of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cthulhu_for_President - with an effective 2 party system its a bad choice and a bad choice but different.I really, really don't get how this idea still has any traction at all.
posted by Flunkie at 4:00 PM on January 21 [5 favorites]
The Republican party is the trump party and pretending any different seems counterfactual and silly. The primary only exists as some weird messaging thing.
posted by Artw at 4:07 PM on January 21 [10 favorites]
posted by Artw at 4:07 PM on January 21 [10 favorites]
i mean has there ever been a more absurd primary? in every debate they all competed in a game to see who could praise trump the most, while he big dicked all of them by not even showing up. outside of the political elites and pundit class, the republican party is a cult of personality, and that personality is back on the ballot. i don’t understand why haley, desantis , etc bothered except as a way to get some media time and grift some campaign cash from conservative billionaires who want all the evil but none of the trump chaos. it’s a farce, but then all US politics are farce today, unless they’re tragedy
posted by dis_integration at 4:20 PM on January 21 [6 favorites]
posted by dis_integration at 4:20 PM on January 21 [6 favorites]
Huh. I expected him to hang on longer if for no other reason than to keep raking in what campaign cash he could.
I don't get the desire of so many people to humiliate themselves by inevitably losing to Trump. He's the nominee go home and stop wasting your time guys.
posted by sotonohito at 4:24 PM on January 21 [1 favorite]
I don't get the desire of so many people to humiliate themselves by inevitably losing to Trump. He's the nominee go home and stop wasting your time guys.
posted by sotonohito at 4:24 PM on January 21 [1 favorite]
"...And apart from that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?"
posted by y2karl at 4:31 PM on January 21 [5 favorites]
posted by y2karl at 4:31 PM on January 21 [5 favorites]
All these second place people will be running in 2028 and beyond. Trump will be gone before long one way or another, then they will have name recognition and be the torchbearers of their bullshit party agenda.
posted by Liquidwolf at 4:43 PM on January 21 [9 favorites]
posted by Liquidwolf at 4:43 PM on January 21 [9 favorites]
What's astonishing to me is how much DeSantis completely rejiggered Florida in order to support his now abandoned run for President. A slew of draconian laws passed as a model of how he would govern on a larger stage, and even changing the law that said that a sitting governor cannot run for national office.
So he's done all this and for... naught? He won't be viable in the next cycle. Not after all this.
posted by hippybear at 4:53 PM on January 21 [13 favorites]
So he's done all this and for... naught? He won't be viable in the next cycle. Not after all this.
posted by hippybear at 4:53 PM on January 21 [13 favorites]
An appellation that equally applies to TFG to all intents and purposes as far as I am concerned.
posted by y2karl at 5:04 PM on January 21 [2 favorites]
posted by y2karl at 5:04 PM on January 21 [2 favorites]
i don’t understand why haley, desantis , etc bothered
Sooner or later, Trump will be out of the picture, whether for legal reasons or health reasons. They're just saving their place in line.
posted by alexei at 5:06 PM on January 21 [18 favorites]
Sooner or later, Trump will be out of the picture, whether for legal reasons or health reasons. They're just saving their place in line.
posted by alexei at 5:06 PM on January 21 [18 favorites]
I cannot fucking believe I am going to have to vote against Trump again. This system is so fucking broken.
posted by nushustu at 5:16 PM on January 21 [31 favorites]
posted by nushustu at 5:16 PM on January 21 [31 favorites]
or (if he wins this time) having a stand-in run (maybe Trump Jr?) and being VP on the ticket on the understanding that the stand-in resigns immediately upon assuming office and Trump gets two more years.
Aside from the fact that someone ineligible to hold the presidency can’t be vice president, if Trump wins the election this year he’s just not leaving office this time, I mean let’s be real here
posted by rhymedirective at 5:31 PM on January 21 [8 favorites]
Aside from the fact that someone ineligible to hold the presidency can’t be vice president, if Trump wins the election this year he’s just not leaving office this time, I mean let’s be real here
posted by rhymedirective at 5:31 PM on January 21 [8 favorites]
A win for Trump means that Ukraine is conquered. Haley supports Ukraine against the Russian invasion, but if Trump succeeds in the Republican primary, there's still a strong possibility he succeeds in the general election. I still suspect that Biden will be able to win the general election, but that's on the precondition that he survives. Ukraine's ability to resist invasion depends on Biden having good enough genetics to outlast the human average male mortality.
I'm hoping that the Democratic Party's war chest is able to massively outspend the Republican campaign, since it appears that most Republican donors are tapped out. Most donations have been going to Trump's legal expenses.
posted by DetriusXii at 5:33 PM on January 21 [4 favorites]
I'm hoping that the Democratic Party's war chest is able to massively outspend the Republican campaign, since it appears that most Republican donors are tapped out. Most donations have been going to Trump's legal expenses.
posted by DetriusXii at 5:33 PM on January 21 [4 favorites]
"I leave you gentlemen now and you will write it. You will interpret it. That's your right. But as I leave you I want you to know — just think how much you're going to be missing. You won't have Rick Nixon to kick around anymore because, gentlemen, this is my last press conference.'
posted by clavdivs at 5:38 PM on January 21 [4 favorites]
posted by clavdivs at 5:38 PM on January 21 [4 favorites]
Trump doesn't need to spend a dime. Every time I look at the news, every time I look at the internet, there's Donald Trump. On the rare occasion I hear anything about Biden, it's someone questioning his competence, his continence, his mortality, his terrible poll numbers, what the point of his presidency even is anymore. We may think the news is equally bad about Trump, but to his supporters he's an outlaw, he's a rebel, and everyone against him is just a hater.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 5:40 PM on January 21 [19 favorites]
posted by kittens for breakfast at 5:40 PM on January 21 [19 favorites]
The age thing is really confusing. I mean, IMO both candidates are too old, but Biden isn't much older than Trump, and Trump's health is visibly worse than Biden's. How can anyone make Biden's age an issue and not Trump's?
posted by mumimor at 5:40 PM on January 21 [15 favorites]
posted by mumimor at 5:40 PM on January 21 [15 favorites]
"All these second place people will be running in 2028 and beyond. Trump will be gone before long one way or another, then they will have name recognition and be the torchbearers of their bullshit party agenda."
Except that the Republicans who were smart enough to sit this cycle out because they knew Trump is unbeatable will happily throw down against muppets like Ramaswamy, Haley and de Santis in 2028.
However I think it's more likely that Trump will win the election and then try to get himself a third term, probably using some kind of excuse like he just doesn't think the next crop of Republicans has what it takes to "finish what he's started" (whatever that turns out to be) and then he will just refuse to leave.
posted by awfurby at 5:43 PM on January 21 [1 favorite]
Except that the Republicans who were smart enough to sit this cycle out because they knew Trump is unbeatable will happily throw down against muppets like Ramaswamy, Haley and de Santis in 2028.
However I think it's more likely that Trump will win the election and then try to get himself a third term, probably using some kind of excuse like he just doesn't think the next crop of Republicans has what it takes to "finish what he's started" (whatever that turns out to be) and then he will just refuse to leave.
posted by awfurby at 5:43 PM on January 21 [1 favorite]
The age thing is really confusing. I mean, IMO both candidates are too old, but Biden isn't much older than Trump, and Trump's health is visibly worse than Biden's. How can anyone make Biden's age an issue and not Trump's?
Because when Biden speaks these days, he sounds really really tired and old. He sounds like he's not all there. Yes Trump sounds like a moron too, but he's still stringing words together at something approaching normal pace.
posted by awfurby at 5:45 PM on January 21 [8 favorites]
Because when Biden speaks these days, he sounds really really tired and old. He sounds like he's not all there. Yes Trump sounds like a moron too, but he's still stringing words together at something approaching normal pace.
posted by awfurby at 5:45 PM on January 21 [8 favorites]
I hope we get to vote in 2028.
My ire has been rising for weeks. I literally choose the wrong time to stop sniffing glue as NPR is decided that Trump's actual voice must be on my radio again.
posted by MonsieurPEB at 5:45 PM on January 21 [5 favorites]
My ire has been rising for weeks. I literally choose the wrong time to stop sniffing glue as NPR is decided that Trump's actual voice must be on my radio again.
posted by MonsieurPEB at 5:45 PM on January 21 [5 favorites]
However I think it's more likely that Trump will win the election and then try to get himself a third term, probably using some kind of excuse like he just doesn't think the next crop of Republicans has what it takes to "finish what he's started" (whatever that turns out to be) and then he will just refuse to leave.
Third term? You think he's going to be alive and running in 2032? I know people love to get pessimistic around this place but gimme a break.
posted by Liquidwolf at 5:48 PM on January 21 [4 favorites]
Third term? You think he's going to be alive and running in 2032? I know people love to get pessimistic around this place but gimme a break.
posted by Liquidwolf at 5:48 PM on January 21 [4 favorites]
The age thing is really confusing. I mean, IMO both candidates are too old, but Biden isn't much older than Trump, and Trump's health is visibly worse than Biden's. How can anyone make Biden's age an issue and not Trump's?
Biden sounds like he's 30-40% off his peak mentally, and Trump sounds like he's 5% off his peak and 85% off Biden's peak.
posted by BrotherCaine at 5:48 PM on January 21 [13 favorites]
Biden sounds like he's 30-40% off his peak mentally, and Trump sounds like he's 5% off his peak and 85% off Biden's peak.
posted by BrotherCaine at 5:48 PM on January 21 [13 favorites]
Yes Trump sounds like a moron too, but he's still stringing words together at something approaching normal pace.
If you're truly paying attention this is entirely not the case, but there is no media machine churning out Trump Is Too Old messaging.
But really pay closer attention. Trump is fucking up his speech, mixing up people in his mind, like Nancy Pelosi and Nikki Haley just this past week but also many times confusing whether he beat Hillary or Barack in 2016. And a ton of other things.
If Biden sounding old and tired is disturbing to you, spend some actual time paying attention to Trump talking, because he talks like he's either drunk or feeble.
posted by hippybear at 5:50 PM on January 21 [39 favorites]
If you're truly paying attention this is entirely not the case, but there is no media machine churning out Trump Is Too Old messaging.
But really pay closer attention. Trump is fucking up his speech, mixing up people in his mind, like Nancy Pelosi and Nikki Haley just this past week but also many times confusing whether he beat Hillary or Barack in 2016. And a ton of other things.
If Biden sounding old and tired is disturbing to you, spend some actual time paying attention to Trump talking, because he talks like he's either drunk or feeble.
posted by hippybear at 5:50 PM on January 21 [39 favorites]
NYT laying it on with a trowel - their current front page headline is “Implosion Complete, DeSantis Falls in Line Behind Trump”.
posted by ryanshepard at 5:57 PM on January 21 [5 favorites]
posted by ryanshepard at 5:57 PM on January 21 [5 favorites]
I’m really tired of people saying Biden is messing his speech up. He definitely sounds different than he did 15 years ago, but he’s 81.
He’s also always been open about the fact that he’s a stutterer so maybe let’s not with the Biden has dementia hot takes because he stumbles over a word here and there.
posted by rhymedirective at 5:58 PM on January 21 [45 favorites]
He’s also always been open about the fact that he’s a stutterer so maybe let’s not with the Biden has dementia hot takes because he stumbles over a word here and there.
posted by rhymedirective at 5:58 PM on January 21 [45 favorites]
If you're truly paying attention this is entirely not the case
As someone who truly is paying attention, I’m dismayed by Biden’s decline over the past four years. Trump’s been a train wreck from the get go, but they’re both way too old to be contemplating a four year term as POTUS, and 2024 Biden really is something manifestly different from 2020 Biden. Please don’t let your desire for a certain outcome blind you to the reality of the situation.
posted by not just everyday big moggies at 5:58 PM on January 21 [13 favorites]
As someone who truly is paying attention, I’m dismayed by Biden’s decline over the past four years. Trump’s been a train wreck from the get go, but they’re both way too old to be contemplating a four year term as POTUS, and 2024 Biden really is something manifestly different from 2020 Biden. Please don’t let your desire for a certain outcome blind you to the reality of the situation.
posted by not just everyday big moggies at 5:58 PM on January 21 [13 favorites]
then try to get himself a third term, probably using some kind of excuse like he just doesn't think the next crop of Republicans has what it takes to "finish what he's started"
Project 2025 (the Heritage Foundation right wing plan to install Trump sycophants across the executive branch) explicitly states that Trump would and should be allowed to use the military for domestic "law enforcement" and the DOJ to arrest and prosecute his political enemies. They are literally literally planning to install people who will let him do whatever he wants, he won't need any silly excuse to declare he's President For Life.
posted by soundguy99 at 6:00 PM on January 21 [12 favorites]
Project 2025 (the Heritage Foundation right wing plan to install Trump sycophants across the executive branch) explicitly states that Trump would and should be allowed to use the military for domestic "law enforcement" and the DOJ to arrest and prosecute his political enemies. They are literally literally planning to install people who will let him do whatever he wants, he won't need any silly excuse to declare he's President For Life.
posted by soundguy99 at 6:00 PM on January 21 [12 favorites]
Please don’t let your desire for a certain outcome blind you to the reality of the situation.
Nah, because you didn't read what I wrote. My statement about "not paying attention" was entirely about people thinking that Trump is doing a good job with his speech. I share your concern about Biden, but the statement I was refuting had nothing to do with Biden except insofar that it was saying that Trump is being more lucid than Biden, and I believe that is counterfactual.
posted by hippybear at 6:09 PM on January 21 [4 favorites]
Nah, because you didn't read what I wrote. My statement about "not paying attention" was entirely about people thinking that Trump is doing a good job with his speech. I share your concern about Biden, but the statement I was refuting had nothing to do with Biden except insofar that it was saying that Trump is being more lucid than Biden, and I believe that is counterfactual.
posted by hippybear at 6:09 PM on January 21 [4 favorites]
Ol’ Ron Little Boots DeSantis
posted by oldnumberseven at 6:15 PM on January 21
posted by oldnumberseven at 6:15 PM on January 21
Everyone: DeSantis is the obvious lead candidate. It would take a miracle to unseat the man who is basically a smarter Trump.
...
...
...
DeSantis: Now, to score some easy points against The Massive, Ludicrously Skilled Legal Team of the Walt Disney Corporation!
posted by DirtyOldTown at 6:15 PM on January 21 [9 favorites]
...
...
...
DeSantis: Now, to score some easy points against The Massive, Ludicrously Skilled Legal Team of the Walt Disney Corporation!
posted by DirtyOldTown at 6:15 PM on January 21 [9 favorites]
Coincidentally, I'm listening to the soundtrack of La Reine Margot. Does anyone remember that film? It seems that the US version was abridged so even if you remember it, it may be different from what I saw. Anyway, back then, I saw it as a warning against politics as a spectacle and against ideology. There is no good ending.
Ironically, the beautiful soundtrack was created by Goran Bregovic, who is now a putinist.
This is relevant because DeSantis is a tragic (probably tragicomic) figure who thought he could ride the tiger, and even has his own personal Lady Macbeth to drive him on. Look at him. Someone should write a play. Florida is such a theatrical place.
posted by mumimor at 6:31 PM on January 21 [4 favorites]
Ironically, the beautiful soundtrack was created by Goran Bregovic, who is now a putinist.
This is relevant because DeSantis is a tragic (probably tragicomic) figure who thought he could ride the tiger, and even has his own personal Lady Macbeth to drive him on. Look at him. Someone should write a play. Florida is such a theatrical place.
posted by mumimor at 6:31 PM on January 21 [4 favorites]
Despite the democratic ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, the only way trump wins is electoral college. I suspect this isn't as likely as in 2016. If he succeeds in his Supreme Court case to remove the executive office from legal consequences, our current exec could toss him in jail & throw away the key. Will he? Doubtful (but we've seen stranger things in the last 10 years). You can wail and rend your clothes if you want, I chose to believe the system (as fucked up as it is) is not going to roll over as easily as some of you think. People in power (including democrats) want to keep their power and won't give it up so easy. Especially because we saw what happened previously.
I know some of you are thinking I'm a liberal pollyanna, but really I'm an angry socialist watching all of you, both D & R, throw away any chance at fixing the real problems we have and hold no hope for Biden's 2nd term to change any of that. Still, he's gonna get that 2nd term. The repugs will continue dying the slow lingering death we're enjoying right now, but they will die. I may not be around to see it unfortunately. You youngsters that do see it, raise a toast for me.
posted by evilDoug at 6:38 PM on January 21 [15 favorites]
I know some of you are thinking I'm a liberal pollyanna, but really I'm an angry socialist watching all of you, both D & R, throw away any chance at fixing the real problems we have and hold no hope for Biden's 2nd term to change any of that. Still, he's gonna get that 2nd term. The repugs will continue dying the slow lingering death we're enjoying right now, but they will die. I may not be around to see it unfortunately. You youngsters that do see it, raise a toast for me.
posted by evilDoug at 6:38 PM on January 21 [15 favorites]
Ol’ Ron Little Lickspittle Boots DeSantis FTFY
posted by y2karl at 6:52 PM on January 21 [3 favorites]
posted by y2karl at 6:52 PM on January 21 [3 favorites]
Third term? You think he's going to be alive and running in 2032?
He already had a term. If he wins in 2024, his third term would be in 2028.
posted by joannemerriam at 6:52 PM on January 21 [3 favorites]
He already had a term. If he wins in 2024, his third term would be in 2028.
posted by joannemerriam at 6:52 PM on January 21 [3 favorites]
“Success is not final, failure is not fatal: it is the courage to continue that counts.”
- Winston Churchill
I wonder if the DeSantis team read this quote before plastering it over the twitter video.
posted by jabo at 7:06 PM on January 21 [5 favorites]
- Winston Churchill
I wonder if the DeSantis team read this quote before plastering it over the twitter video.
posted by jabo at 7:06 PM on January 21 [5 favorites]
He would be approaching Trumpinator status, though, joannemerriam
posted by Selena777 at 7:09 PM on January 21 [1 favorite]
posted by Selena777 at 7:09 PM on January 21 [1 favorite]
I would clean out my kid's college fund and donate it to Biden if he aired an ad saying:
"If presidents get full immunity that includes me. And I control Seal Team Six, boyo. Watch your back."
posted by DirtyOldTown at 7:11 PM on January 21 [9 favorites]
"If presidents get full immunity that includes me. And I control Seal Team Six, boyo. Watch your back."
posted by DirtyOldTown at 7:11 PM on January 21 [9 favorites]
I'm just going to carry on and pretend everything is fine.
posted by interogative mood at 7:13 PM on January 21 [7 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 7:13 PM on January 21 [7 favorites]
Selena777: of course. Just clarifying what appeared to be a misunderstanding.
posted by joannemerriam at 7:16 PM on January 21
posted by joannemerriam at 7:16 PM on January 21
Is there a procedural reason why campaigns are "suspended" and not just ended?
posted by thecjm at 7:40 PM on January 21 [1 favorite]
posted by thecjm at 7:40 PM on January 21 [1 favorite]
A win for Trump means that Ukraine is conquered
So Russia’s on Trump’s campaign team again, eh? Not a surprise, but this time… not only will Putin continue to gain from the televised spectacle of American authoritarianism, but finalize the destruction of Ukraine.
Way to go Donnie. Your unresolved daddy issues have made you an excellent puppet. Between Putin and all the so-called conservatives who want to dismantle America piece by piece, you sure have a lot of hands up your ass.
posted by armoir from antproof case at 8:04 PM on January 21 [5 favorites]
So Russia’s on Trump’s campaign team again, eh? Not a surprise, but this time… not only will Putin continue to gain from the televised spectacle of American authoritarianism, but finalize the destruction of Ukraine.
Way to go Donnie. Your unresolved daddy issues have made you an excellent puppet. Between Putin and all the so-called conservatives who want to dismantle America piece by piece, you sure have a lot of hands up your ass.
posted by armoir from antproof case at 8:04 PM on January 21 [5 favorites]
Haley is scary IMO. Yes, as long as TFG goes after her as an immigrant, that's not helping, but. I think there are a lot of "Republican women voters" who would vote for her. None of their husbands would, (if they are still alive) would except, "Republican".
I'd like some of those "Republican women voters" who are pissed off about RvW to be on our side. We need everyone on board to fight this shit.
posted by Windopaene at 8:11 PM on January 21 [1 favorite]
I'd like some of those "Republican women voters" who are pissed off about RvW to be on our side. We need everyone on board to fight this shit.
posted by Windopaene at 8:11 PM on January 21 [1 favorite]
I would clean out my kid's college fund and donate it to Biden if he aired an ad saying:
"If presidents get full immunity that includes me. And I control Seal Team Six, boyo. Watch your back."
Same. But your bank might be less cooperative in my case.
posted by The Manwich Horror at 8:19 PM on January 21 [9 favorites]
"If presidents get full immunity that includes me. And I control Seal Team Six, boyo. Watch your back."
Same. But your bank might be less cooperative in my case.
posted by The Manwich Horror at 8:19 PM on January 21 [9 favorites]
Is there a procedural reason why campaigns are "suspended" and not just ended?
They can still raise money to pay off campaign debt, etc.
posted by MrGuilt at 8:20 PM on January 21 [9 favorites]
They can still raise money to pay off campaign debt, etc.
posted by MrGuilt at 8:20 PM on January 21 [9 favorites]
only on metafilter will a fascist robot leaving the stage be reason enough to litigate biden's stuttering jfc
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 8:31 PM on January 21 [22 favorites]
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 8:31 PM on January 21 [22 favorites]
"America, ...Americans are wanting to smoke that dirt..Okay?"
I'm still taking Biden over TFG.
posted by Windopaene at 8:56 PM on January 21 [2 favorites]
I'm still taking Biden over TFG.
posted by Windopaene at 8:56 PM on January 21 [2 favorites]
only on metafilter will a fascist robot leaving the stage be reason enough to litigate biden's stuttering jfc
Have you been on twitter recently? It’s really bad I keeping seeing a ton of “Biden too old” stuff from left looking accounts in the way I saw a bunch of “Hillary too corrupt” stuff in 2016. Some of it is certainly disinformation but the volume is worrying
posted by CostcoCultist at 9:05 PM on January 21 [4 favorites]
Have you been on twitter recently? It’s really bad I keeping seeing a ton of “Biden too old” stuff from left looking accounts in the way I saw a bunch of “Hillary too corrupt” stuff in 2016. Some of it is certainly disinformation but the volume is worrying
posted by CostcoCultist at 9:05 PM on January 21 [4 favorites]
WTF ARE YOIU DOING ON TWITTER?! It's a fully subsidized far reich propaganda machine. JMFC! Some peoples Children.
posted by evilDoug at 9:40 PM on January 21 [28 favorites]
posted by evilDoug at 9:40 PM on January 21 [28 favorites]
My mood: supposing we do survive this round, I wonder what scale of right wing violence there will be?
Probably just a handful of mass shooters? It seems like the militias that are likely to try something organized tried during Jan 6.
I hear lots of talk about civil war from the right, but I suspect most of the people talking that way don't get how much structure and community building it takes to get a large group of people with guns pointed in the same direction.
posted by constraint at 10:45 PM on January 21 [3 favorites]
Probably just a handful of mass shooters? It seems like the militias that are likely to try something organized tried during Jan 6.
I hear lots of talk about civil war from the right, but I suspect most of the people talking that way don't get how much structure and community building it takes to get a large group of people with guns pointed in the same direction.
posted by constraint at 10:45 PM on January 21 [3 favorites]
Trump called this guy "Meatball" and gets his endorsement anyway. This is almost as pathetic as when Cruz did the same after Trump insulted his wife. God, the GOP is gross.
posted by brundlefly at 1:27 AM on January 22 [18 favorites]
posted by brundlefly at 1:27 AM on January 22 [18 favorites]
DetriusXii: A win for Trump means that Ukraine is conquered.
For us here at this side of the ocean, that's considerably more scary than for most of you US Americans.
posted by Too-Ticky at 2:20 AM on January 22 [18 favorites]
For us here at this side of the ocean, that's considerably more scary than for most of you US Americans.
posted by Too-Ticky at 2:20 AM on January 22 [18 favorites]
I hear lots of talk about civil war from the right, but I suspect most of the people talking that way don't get how much structure and community building it takes to get a large group of people with guns pointed in the same direction.
Also, unlike in January 2021, there will be a democratic Democrat in charge. Any attempts at armed insurrection after the election will be put down right away.
You can already see it now. Trump has tried to incite violent mobs in front of the various courts he is indicted at, and nothing has happened. Both because only a handful of loonies have arrived there, and because of the massive police presence.
That doesn't mean they aren't dangerous -- they are obviously targeting individuals instead.
posted by mumimor at 3:46 AM on January 22 [4 favorites]
Also, unlike in January 2021, there will be a democratic Democrat in charge. Any attempts at armed insurrection after the election will be put down right away.
You can already see it now. Trump has tried to incite violent mobs in front of the various courts he is indicted at, and nothing has happened. Both because only a handful of loonies have arrived there, and because of the massive police presence.
That doesn't mean they aren't dangerous -- they are obviously targeting individuals instead.
posted by mumimor at 3:46 AM on January 22 [4 favorites]
Have you been on twitter recently?
Er... no.
posted by Cardinal Fang at 4:19 AM on January 22 [11 favorites]
Er... no.
posted by Cardinal Fang at 4:19 AM on January 22 [11 favorites]
DeSantis is obviously betting that Trump gets imprisoned or his campaign otherwise gets derailed before November, at which time he will swoop in from the wings as the One True Loyal Trumpie to carry on the Nazi vision of his one-time leash-master.
posted by BigLankyBastard at 5:10 AM on January 22 [2 favorites]
posted by BigLankyBastard at 5:10 AM on January 22 [2 favorites]
Lot of people in this thread weirdly confident there'll be an election in 2028.
posted by parm at 5:13 AM on January 22 [11 favorites]
posted by parm at 5:13 AM on January 22 [11 favorites]
Who gives a shit if Biden is too old? Is Harris not also a wildly superior alternative to a 91 times indicted wannabe dictator who is also too old?
I know though: it's all fake. And no one learned anything last time.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 5:14 AM on January 22 [8 favorites]
I know though: it's all fake. And no one learned anything last time.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 5:14 AM on January 22 [8 favorites]
Trump called this guy "Meatball" and gets his endorsement anyway. This is almost as pathetic as when Cruz did the same after Trump insulted his wife. God, the GOP is gross.
In the spirit of "every accusation is a confession" by these clowns, I appreciate how while on the one hand the go-to right wing insult is "cuck," their public figures consistently revel in exactly that type of personal debasement.
posted by Dip Flash at 7:00 AM on January 22 [3 favorites]
In the spirit of "every accusation is a confession" by these clowns, I appreciate how while on the one hand the go-to right wing insult is "cuck," their public figures consistently revel in exactly that type of personal debasement.
posted by Dip Flash at 7:00 AM on January 22 [3 favorites]
This can't be said enough times: what the hell are you still doing on twitter?
posted by I-Write-Essays at 7:04 AM on January 22 [12 favorites]
posted by I-Write-Essays at 7:04 AM on January 22 [12 favorites]
“Ron DeSantis LOL,” Daniel W. Drezner, Drezner’s World, 21 January 2024
The decline and fall of a first-class traveler and third-class presidential candidateposted by ob1quixote at 7:11 AM on January 22
NYT tomorrow: Why Liberals Should Be Sad to See DeSantis Depart
Wtf is up with the NYT, anyhow?
posted by bq at 7:13 AM on January 22 [4 favorites]
Wtf is up with the NYT, anyhow?
posted by bq at 7:13 AM on January 22 [4 favorites]
Wtf is up with the NYT, anyhow?
Well, you know how Democracy Dies in Darkness? It turns out that as you get further into twilight, old media helps do the stabbing.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 7:48 AM on January 22 [8 favorites]
Well, you know how Democracy Dies in Darkness? It turns out that as you get further into twilight, old media helps do the stabbing.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 7:48 AM on January 22 [8 favorites]
A win for Trump means that Ukraine is conquered.
Taiwan as well. Trump 2.0 is a pro-slavery BRICS asset.
posted by CynicalKnight at 7:57 AM on January 22 [4 favorites]
Taiwan as well. Trump 2.0 is a pro-slavery BRICS asset.
posted by CynicalKnight at 7:57 AM on January 22 [4 favorites]
Is Biden going to stand by Taiwan?
posted by Selena777 at 7:59 AM on January 22 [2 favorites]
posted by Selena777 at 7:59 AM on January 22 [2 favorites]
“Success is not final, failure is not fatal: it is the courage to continue that counts.”
- Winston Churchill
I wonder if the DeSantis team read this quote before plastering it over the twitter video.
I wonder if the DeSantis team checked whether it was Churchill who said this before plastering it over the twitter video. NYT, sorry.
posted by Snowishberlin at 8:09 AM on January 22 [4 favorites]
- Winston Churchill
I wonder if the DeSantis team read this quote before plastering it over the twitter video.
I wonder if the DeSantis team checked whether it was Churchill who said this before plastering it over the twitter video. NYT, sorry.
posted by Snowishberlin at 8:09 AM on January 22 [4 favorites]
Lovely seeing all these cowards line up behind the dictator because he's just too scary to face. Let the Democrats and American people deal with him, he's just too mean to you I guess.
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 8:22 AM on January 22 [6 favorites]
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 8:22 AM on January 22 [6 favorites]
Falsely attributing quotes to Winston Churchill is a longstanding GOP tradition.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 8:46 AM on January 22 [1 favorite]
posted by DirtyOldTown at 8:46 AM on January 22 [1 favorite]
What do you mean, what's up with the NYT? They helped Trump during his first run and they are helping again.
I feel like a broken record on here, but the NYT is a hateful, conservative, and ugly "paper of record" and they are behaving as they have for decades now.
posted by tiny frying pan at 8:49 AM on January 22 [16 favorites]
I feel like a broken record on here, but the NYT is a hateful, conservative, and ugly "paper of record" and they are behaving as they have for decades now.
posted by tiny frying pan at 8:49 AM on January 22 [16 favorites]
"Meatball Goooone". Nice woody sound...
posted by Windopaene at 8:51 AM on January 22 [5 favorites]
posted by Windopaene at 8:51 AM on January 22 [5 favorites]
Falsely attributing quotes to Winston Churchill is a longstanding GOP tradition.
My favourite Winston Churchill quote seems oddly apt for DeSantis.
posted by essexjan at 8:53 AM on January 22
My favourite Winston Churchill quote seems oddly apt for DeSantis.
posted by essexjan at 8:53 AM on January 22
You won't have Rick Nixon to kick around anymore because, gentlemen, this is my last press conference.'
Rickroll or Dickroll? That is the question. And autocorrect for Vice!
posted by y2karl at 9:12 AM on January 22
Rickroll or Dickroll? That is the question. And autocorrect for Vice!
posted by y2karl at 9:12 AM on January 22
“Ron DeSantis LOL,” Daniel W. Drezner, Drezner’s World, 21 January 2024
From a quote in that article, "Christina Pushaw — who was the architect of DeSantis’ communications strategy."
Perfect name for his comms director...all I could think about was Wayne's World.
posted by msbrauer at 9:24 AM on January 22 [1 favorite]
From a quote in that article, "Christina Pushaw — who was the architect of DeSantis’ communications strategy."
Perfect name for his comms director...all I could think about was Wayne's World.
posted by msbrauer at 9:24 AM on January 22 [1 favorite]
I'm surprised it's down to two already. Any sort of anti-Trump energy has to go towards Haley, so maybe she can build momentum if there's enough Republicans left that don't really want a 2020 rematch (or vote for a convicted felon president). She's going to have to win on Tuesday to have any chance though.
I really don't like being a coin-flip from another Trump presidency. It's going to be a very long year.
posted by netowl at 9:28 AM on January 22 [4 favorites]
I really don't like being a coin-flip from another Trump presidency. It's going to be a very long year.
posted by netowl at 9:28 AM on January 22 [4 favorites]
We should stop pretending with Haley too. The Republican Party has made its choice. It’s not even a mild preference, they are wildly in love with fascism. There was never ever more than paper thin opposition to that and it mostly existed in the minds of dumb “centrist” newspaper columnists.
posted by Artw at 9:40 AM on January 22 [5 favorites]
posted by Artw at 9:40 AM on January 22 [5 favorites]
If Hillary Clinton couldn't beat Trump in 2016 why do people think Nikki Haley will beat Biden in 2024? A less qualified candidate who is running in the party that is more misogynistic and racist? If Trump pops, how many voters actually go with Haley over no one? I don't think she's their second choice, I think she's an entirely different category to them. Desantis didn't even try to run in the "definitely not Trump but also willing to push existing culture war narratives" category and he certainly couldn't hack it in the Trump category when the Brand Name product is still kicking. I don't think Trump category voters turn out nearly as much for the prior category.
posted by Slackermagee at 9:43 AM on January 22 [1 favorite]
posted by Slackermagee at 9:43 AM on January 22 [1 favorite]
why do people think Nikki Haley will beat Biden in 2024?
Polling, mostly, which doesn't necessarily seem like something to hang one's hat on in 2024.
posted by box at 9:55 AM on January 22 [2 favorites]
Polling, mostly, which doesn't necessarily seem like something to hang one's hat on in 2024.
posted by box at 9:55 AM on January 22 [2 favorites]
If Hillary Clinton couldn't beat Trump in 2016 why do people think Nikki Haley will beat Biden in 2024? A less qualified candidate who is running in the party that is more misogynistic and racist?
Speaking just to the gendered component of that, there's a pretty solid track record of right wing parties that are misogynistic (or cater to misogynistic voters) being willing to put forth women leaders. Thatcher would be a prime example, but also Marie Le Pen comes to mind, as does Giorgia Meloni.
posted by Dip Flash at 10:27 AM on January 22 [10 favorites]
Speaking just to the gendered component of that, there's a pretty solid track record of right wing parties that are misogynistic (or cater to misogynistic voters) being willing to put forth women leaders. Thatcher would be a prime example, but also Marie Le Pen comes to mind, as does Giorgia Meloni.
posted by Dip Flash at 10:27 AM on January 22 [10 favorites]
Hungwy
posted by yellowcandy at 11:06 AM on January 22 [1 favorite]
posted by yellowcandy at 11:06 AM on January 22 [1 favorite]
The Anti-Trans Crusade Was Supposed to Make DeSantis President. What Happens Now He’s Gone?
posted by Artw at 11:25 AM on January 22 [4 favorites]
posted by Artw at 11:25 AM on January 22 [4 favorites]
Trumps' VP will probably be "Also, Trump."
Huh. Might he do this, actually? Might he give one of his children the nod?
posted by eirias at 11:28 AM on January 22 [1 favorite]
Huh. Might he do this, actually? Might he give one of his children the nod?
posted by eirias at 11:28 AM on January 22 [1 favorite]
I wouldn't be surprised if he just passes on having a running mate at all. I could see him saying "yeah, fight this out amongst yourselves". It won't matter because once Trump is in office there won't be a presidency anymore and his children will be installed as successors.
posted by hippybear at 11:29 AM on January 22 [1 favorite]
posted by hippybear at 11:29 AM on January 22 [1 favorite]
It’s absolutely not going to be someone who might take attention w away from him, so the “runner up” theory has always been weird.
posted by Artw at 11:51 AM on January 22 [3 favorites]
posted by Artw at 11:51 AM on January 22 [3 favorites]
It won't matter because once Trump is in office there won't be a presidency anymore and his children will be installed as successors.
While this thought might be in his head, I honestly struggle to imagine either Trump or Biden surviving to January, 2029 (the inauguration of the winner of the election after this one). I mean this strictly as “they are two pretty old dudes.” I don’t think it’s controversial to suggest Trump is less than the ideal picture of physical fitness and health.
I also don’t see the cult of personality that is the MAGA base as being invested in his kids (or anyone else) as much—I honestly don’t see it completely and cleanly transferring to anyone else unless he really starts setting that stage today. He hasn’t, and, frankly, there is no limelight for Trump big enough for him to share.
(Aside from ego, which is more than enough of an explanation, I think there is a practical reason for having everyone focus on Trump. Conventional wisdom is a main driver (beyond ego) for this run is to stay ahead of all the various court cases. I think anything that may dilute from “you’re voting for Trump” and instead be “you’re voting for Trump…and his successor” may push undecideds away. Obviously, the counterpoint is, as noted above, it’s implicit with Biden as well.)
Bottom line: when Trump dies, it’s going to be chaos for MAGA, the GOP, and the country. If we’re lucky, it will be of natural causes that 95% of the population accepts (there will always be a fringe that won’t accept that it’s simply impossible for an obese, sedentary, 77-year-old man would actually die of, say, a heart attack or stroke. IT MUST BE A CONSPIRACY!!!1!1!). Then, it’s whoever the VP is struggling to get the GOP’s house in order (rather than competing factions (2-3 folks trying to get the MAGA base sorted, a few not-MAGA “team normal factions, etc.)), and 2028 election could get to something closer to the pre-2016 norm.
If we’re very lucky, it would happen sufficiently before the election both parties can respond (new candidates, etc.). The window is closing on that quite quickly.
But, either way, after Trump, there will be a vacuum on the Right, and it’s not at all clear how it might be filled.
Edited, because, while Trump is both obscene and obese, only one of those qualities was relevant to the point I was making.
posted by MrGuilt at 12:22 PM on January 22 [2 favorites]
While this thought might be in his head, I honestly struggle to imagine either Trump or Biden surviving to January, 2029 (the inauguration of the winner of the election after this one). I mean this strictly as “they are two pretty old dudes.” I don’t think it’s controversial to suggest Trump is less than the ideal picture of physical fitness and health.
I also don’t see the cult of personality that is the MAGA base as being invested in his kids (or anyone else) as much—I honestly don’t see it completely and cleanly transferring to anyone else unless he really starts setting that stage today. He hasn’t, and, frankly, there is no limelight for Trump big enough for him to share.
(Aside from ego, which is more than enough of an explanation, I think there is a practical reason for having everyone focus on Trump. Conventional wisdom is a main driver (beyond ego) for this run is to stay ahead of all the various court cases. I think anything that may dilute from “you’re voting for Trump” and instead be “you’re voting for Trump…and his successor” may push undecideds away. Obviously, the counterpoint is, as noted above, it’s implicit with Biden as well.)
Bottom line: when Trump dies, it’s going to be chaos for MAGA, the GOP, and the country. If we’re lucky, it will be of natural causes that 95% of the population accepts (there will always be a fringe that won’t accept that it’s simply impossible for an obese, sedentary, 77-year-old man would actually die of, say, a heart attack or stroke. IT MUST BE A CONSPIRACY!!!1!1!). Then, it’s whoever the VP is struggling to get the GOP’s house in order (rather than competing factions (2-3 folks trying to get the MAGA base sorted, a few not-MAGA “team normal factions, etc.)), and 2028 election could get to something closer to the pre-2016 norm.
If we’re very lucky, it would happen sufficiently before the election both parties can respond (new candidates, etc.). The window is closing on that quite quickly.
But, either way, after Trump, there will be a vacuum on the Right, and it’s not at all clear how it might be filled.
Edited, because, while Trump is both obscene and obese, only one of those qualities was relevant to the point I was making.
posted by MrGuilt at 12:22 PM on January 22 [2 favorites]
While I appreciate your optimism, MrGuilt, I do think that with what we're seeing with Project 2025 and the planned entire decimation of the current government we have and installation of a pre-screened, already being interviewed army of new Government employees might imply that the governmental structure that you see existing today may not exist much beyond June 2025.
Trump is a bad enough actor on his own, but he was surrounded by people striving to contain him and actively working against him in his first term. The plan is now to use Trump as the useful idiot figurehead and have this machine installed once he gets elected that is less a thwarting of his plans and more an exploiting of his needy personality to institute a vastly different government than what anyone might be expecting who hasn't actually read the planning document.
posted by hippybear at 12:35 PM on January 22 [4 favorites]
Trump is a bad enough actor on his own, but he was surrounded by people striving to contain him and actively working against him in his first term. The plan is now to use Trump as the useful idiot figurehead and have this machine installed once he gets elected that is less a thwarting of his plans and more an exploiting of his needy personality to institute a vastly different government than what anyone might be expecting who hasn't actually read the planning document.
posted by hippybear at 12:35 PM on January 22 [4 favorites]
I honestly struggle to imagine either Trump or Biden surviving to January, 2029 (the inauguration of the winner of the election after this one).
Even 2025 is a bit of a crapshoot, and the death of the electee between Election Day and Inauguration Day would be a constitutional crisis of some or other sort, depending exactly when it happened. There are a number of issues, but it basically boils own to the following:
posted by jackbishop at 12:46 PM on January 22
Even 2025 is a bit of a crapshoot, and the death of the electee between Election Day and Inauguration Day would be a constitutional crisis of some or other sort, depending exactly when it happened. There are a number of issues, but it basically boils own to the following:
- Electors have no authority whatsoever to alter their votes in most states, and the electors chosen on Election Day absolutely must vote the way they are pledged to.
- Electoral votes, once submitted, are tallied to determine the electoral winner. There is absolutely no constitutional guidance on what happens if the electoral winner does not meet the qualifications to serve (which presumably include being alive).
- The succession rules establish a procedure for replacing serving presidents, not presidents-elect.
posted by jackbishop at 12:46 PM on January 22
Electors have no authority whatsoever to alter their votes in most states, and the electors chosen on Election Day absolutely must vote the way they are pledged to.My understanding (which could easily be incorrect) is that such states have laws to punish faithless electors, but (assuming an elector is willing to risk the consequences) there's nothing stopping them from casting whatever vote they want... and that vote would be valid, from the federal government's point of view.
posted by Flunkie at 12:53 PM on January 22
As with all things involving the law, the consequences are for AFTER you've done the thing. We have no laws that bind people before their actions.
Laws against murder don't save lives, they just punish those who murder.
posted by hippybear at 12:57 PM on January 22
Laws against murder don't save lives, they just punish those who murder.
posted by hippybear at 12:57 PM on January 22
My guess as to what happens if Biden or Trump pass away after having won the election but before having been inaugurated is:
If Trump:
* Republicans and Democrats agree that the presidency and the vice-presidency are separate offices whose elections do not rely upon each other in anything but a de facto sense.
* VP Elect Kid Rock is sworn in as VP Kid Rock...
* ... and immediately thereafter as President Kid Rock.
If Biden:
* The still-by-a-thread Republican majority House of Representatives decides that since Trump is the living candidate who received the most votes, he has won the election.
* Democrats sue.
* John Roberts, writing on behalf of five of the 6-3 majority, explains that the only possible person who could have standing to sue is Joe Biden, but as he's dead, case dismissed.
* Brent Kavanaugh sides with the majority, but files his own opinion, based largely on the time-honored legal principle of suckus itus libsus.
* Shortly into his second term, President Trump dies of hamberder overdose.
* Vice President Kid Rock is then sworn in as President Kid Rock.
posted by Flunkie at 1:29 PM on January 22 [5 favorites]
If Trump:
* Republicans and Democrats agree that the presidency and the vice-presidency are separate offices whose elections do not rely upon each other in anything but a de facto sense.
* VP Elect Kid Rock is sworn in as VP Kid Rock...
* ... and immediately thereafter as President Kid Rock.
If Biden:
* The still-by-a-thread Republican majority House of Representatives decides that since Trump is the living candidate who received the most votes, he has won the election.
* Democrats sue.
* John Roberts, writing on behalf of five of the 6-3 majority, explains that the only possible person who could have standing to sue is Joe Biden, but as he's dead, case dismissed.
* Brent Kavanaugh sides with the majority, but files his own opinion, based largely on the time-honored legal principle of suckus itus libsus.
* Shortly into his second term, President Trump dies of hamberder overdose.
* Vice President Kid Rock is then sworn in as President Kid Rock.
posted by Flunkie at 1:29 PM on January 22 [5 favorites]
Have you been on twitter recently?
My guy, no one has been on twitter recently.
posted by eustatic at 1:36 PM on January 22 [10 favorites]
My guy, no one has been on twitter recently.
posted by eustatic at 1:36 PM on January 22 [10 favorites]
My understanding (which could easily be incorrect) is that such states have laws to punish faithless electors, but (assuming an elector is willing to risk the consequences) there's nothing stopping them from casting whatever vote they want... and that vote would be valid, from the federal government's point of view.
Naw, the state can just refuse your ballot, eject you, and substitute someone else to cast the vote you pledged. Happened in CO. This isn't automatic, it depends on what state law is.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 2:01 PM on January 22 [1 favorite]
Naw, the state can just refuse your ballot, eject you, and substitute someone else to cast the vote you pledged. Happened in CO. This isn't automatic, it depends on what state law is.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 2:01 PM on January 22 [1 favorite]
My guy, no one has been on twitter recently.
Alex Jones has! He won’t stop talking about it!
posted by GenjiandProust at 3:30 PM on January 22
Alex Jones has! He won’t stop talking about it!
posted by GenjiandProust at 3:30 PM on January 22
so, D----- could run for VP, president immediate resigns T-Hex becomes president serves out previous president's term and then runs again for president.
I think that's the only scenario I can think of were he could serve as dictator until he 90.
operation: ozymandias.
posted by clavdivs at 3:43 PM on January 22
I think that's the only scenario I can think of were he could serve as dictator until he 90.
operation: ozymandias.
posted by clavdivs at 3:43 PM on January 22
I think that's the only scenario I can think of were he could serve as dictator until he 90.
I'm deeply sorry that your imagination doesn't contain "elected president, issues a ton of executive orders, issues a ton more executive orders, starts issuing executive decrees, all of these build into a platform in which he never has to hold an election again".
I mean, "failure of imagination" is an interesting thing to be diagnosed with.
posted by hippybear at 3:46 PM on January 22
I'm deeply sorry that your imagination doesn't contain "elected president, issues a ton of executive orders, issues a ton more executive orders, starts issuing executive decrees, all of these build into a platform in which he never has to hold an election again".
I mean, "failure of imagination" is an interesting thing to be diagnosed with.
posted by hippybear at 3:46 PM on January 22
“Ron DeSantis Backs Down,” Stephen Robinson, The Wonkette, 22 January 2024
Jeb! lasted longer against Trump.posted by ob1quixote at 4:03 PM on January 22
so, D----- could run for VP, president immediate resigns T-Hex becomes president serves out previous president's term and then runs again for president. I think that's the only scenario I can think of were he could serve as dictator until he 90.Can't be elected president if you've already been elected president once and have also served at least two years as president during a term for which someone else was elected president.
It's not really clear to me that (by the letter of the law) you couldn't do something like this by repeatedly running for VP (and having the POTUS resign) over and over, but I think even that would rely on drawing weird, questionable distinctions like "Sure, he's not eligible to be elected president (by the 22nd Amendment), but that doesn't mean that he's not eligible to be (or even become) president, and therefore the 12th Amendment's statement that people ineligible to be president are also ineligible to be vice-president does not apply. Then since he's eligible to be vice-president, and there is nothing in the 22nd or elsewhere that in certain conditions disallows someone who is eligible to be vice-president to be ineligible for being elected vice-president, he can run for (and then be) VP. And since we've already agreed that the fact that he's ineligible to be elected president does not mean he's ineligible to be president, he would therefore become president upon the elected president's resignation."
But yeah, I think the most plausible scenario -- sadly too plausible, in my opinion -- for "dictator for life" is more along the lines of "No elections this year, because reasons."
posted by Flunkie at 4:41 PM on January 22
Oh, I misread what you wrote, and I now think you were suggesting something along the lines of my second paragraph. If so, strike my first paragraph, but I think everything else still stands.
posted by Flunkie at 5:01 PM on January 22
posted by Flunkie at 5:01 PM on January 22
In 2015, I would have said that the pool of people who could dependably run for president, win, and then immediately resign was very small, but in 2024 I’m like 🤷
posted by box at 5:23 PM on January 22
posted by box at 5:23 PM on January 22
The Emasculation of Ron DeSantis by the Bully Donald Trump (NYT gift, but I should really be giving a gift to the person that wrote that headline)
posted by box at 5:38 PM on January 22 [2 favorites]
posted by box at 5:38 PM on January 22 [2 favorites]
The Emasculation of Ron DeSantis by the Bully Donald Trump (NYT gift, but I should really be giving a gift to the person that wrote that headline)
It doesn't end with the headline:
Mr. Cheung also referred to the Florida governor as a “desperate eunuch,” questioned why Mr. DeSantis would “cuck himself” in front of the entire country — sexual slang that implies weakness in a man — and accused him of searching for “new sugar daddies” to fund his campaign. He called Mr. DeSantis a “disloyal dog.”
posted by Dip Flash at 5:52 PM on January 22 [3 favorites]
It doesn't end with the headline:
Mr. Cheung also referred to the Florida governor as a “desperate eunuch,” questioned why Mr. DeSantis would “cuck himself” in front of the entire country — sexual slang that implies weakness in a man — and accused him of searching for “new sugar daddies” to fund his campaign. He called Mr. DeSantis a “disloyal dog.”
posted by Dip Flash at 5:52 PM on January 22 [3 favorites]
How does this wind up working? Like, are there big donors for each party who they'll go to and say "I really need you to donate to my suspended campaign now"? Or do they go to small donors and say that (I'd have a pretty hard time believing this option)? Or to small donors but say some generic thing like "HELP RON DESANTIS DEFEND HIMSELF FROM THE COMMUNIST NAZIS" without making it terribly clear that this means "to pay off the debt of his dead campaign"?Is there a procedural reason why campaigns are "suspended" and not just ended?They can still raise money to pay off campaign debt, etc.
What happens if they just can't raise enough? The campaign goes bankrupt? If that's all there is to it, why would they care? Might they not be allowed to fundraise for anything after having had a campaign go bankrupt? Or some other penalty with an actual practical effect on them?
posted by Flunkie at 6:01 PM on January 22
The TL:DR answer is that political campaigns are a special kind of non-profit corporation called a PAC that is under the authority of the Federal Election Commission. The FEC considers a campaign PAC active until its debts are paid, active campaigns have to regularly report & justify income & expenditures to the FEC, the FEC can levy heavy fines if they fail to file these reports or the reports don't add up, the FEC can refer violations to the DOJ for criminal investigation and prosecution. In practice the FEC is relatively toothless but still it's probably better not to poke the bear. People have gone to jail over campaign finance shenanigans.
Also, a ton of people working on campaigns like DeSantis' are professionals - running campaigns is what they do for a living, so if you have any hope of running for anything in the future you'd better not piss them off by just shutting a campaign down without paying them. Because you'll need to hire them or their friends again.
My guess is paying down the debts of a suspended campaign is mostly done by big donors, they pay your debts and you owe them big favors next time you win an office (or when you're a Fox talking head or at a think tank or on a board of directors.) There are complex ways to transfer money between campaign specific PACs and more generalized PACs, so getting small donors to pay into Meatball Ron's generic Anti-Woke PAC and then moving that money to the campaign PAC is possible but maybe not worth the hassle. Or vice versa, get small donors to contribute to the campaign and promise that any money left over goes to Meatball Ron's Anti-Woke PAC.
Trump has like half a dozen PACs and one of the crimes he is doing right now (although in comparison to most of the things he does it's almost laughably minor) is playing shell games shuffling money around these various PACs to hide the fact that he's using political donations to pay for personal stuff (like lawyers.)
posted by soundguy99 at 8:44 PM on January 22 [6 favorites]
Also, a ton of people working on campaigns like DeSantis' are professionals - running campaigns is what they do for a living, so if you have any hope of running for anything in the future you'd better not piss them off by just shutting a campaign down without paying them. Because you'll need to hire them or their friends again.
My guess is paying down the debts of a suspended campaign is mostly done by big donors, they pay your debts and you owe them big favors next time you win an office (or when you're a Fox talking head or at a think tank or on a board of directors.) There are complex ways to transfer money between campaign specific PACs and more generalized PACs, so getting small donors to pay into Meatball Ron's generic Anti-Woke PAC and then moving that money to the campaign PAC is possible but maybe not worth the hassle. Or vice versa, get small donors to contribute to the campaign and promise that any money left over goes to Meatball Ron's Anti-Woke PAC.
Trump has like half a dozen PACs and one of the crimes he is doing right now (although in comparison to most of the things he does it's almost laughably minor) is playing shell games shuffling money around these various PACs to hide the fact that he's using political donations to pay for personal stuff (like lawyers.)
posted by soundguy99 at 8:44 PM on January 22 [6 favorites]
sexual slang that implies weakness in a man
far-right dog whistle borne out of Gamergate
posted by Cardinal Fang at 5:33 AM on January 23 [4 favorites]
far-right dog whistle borne out of Gamergate
posted by Cardinal Fang at 5:33 AM on January 23 [4 favorites]
“The Anti-Trans Crusade Was Supposed to Make DeSantis President. What Happens Now He’s Gone?” Evan Urquhart, Assigned, 22 January 2024
In its desperation for a successor to Trump right wing media promoted the pet political cause of an uncharismatic pudding-fingered meatball. Now gender-hysteria may be the most significant impact on American political life that Ron DeSantis ever has.posted by ob1quixote at 6:34 AM on January 23 [3 favorites]
i wish media would stop oversimplifying things. Trump didn't start the fascist bent of the Republicans... he's the logical outcome. Desantis didn't start the antitrans bent... he's just been successful in his state (tho i suspect most of it will be overturned as unconstitutional eventually).
the Republicans and Evangelicals are the root cause and need to be called out whenever possible to make it clear that there is no good option there. not Haley, not Tim Scott, not Mittens or Daughter Cheney. they're all just variations of white supremacy and fear of the other.
posted by kokaku at 7:14 AM on January 23 [3 favorites]
the Republicans and Evangelicals are the root cause and need to be called out whenever possible to make it clear that there is no good option there. not Haley, not Tim Scott, not Mittens or Daughter Cheney. they're all just variations of white supremacy and fear of the other.
posted by kokaku at 7:14 AM on January 23 [3 favorites]
“A few words of consolation for my close personal friend Ron DeSantis, who has ended his Presidential campaign,” Garrett Bucks, The White Pages, 23 January 2024
Ron, it's not the size of the dog in the fight, it's the dog in the fight of the sizeposted by ob1quixote at 11:30 AM on January 23
Ron, it's not the size of the dog in the fight, it's the dog in the fight of the sizeUh... what?
posted by Flunkie at 1:13 PM on January 23 [2 favorites]
Ron, it's not the size of the dog in the fight, it's the dog in the fight of the size
Is that a Trump quote?
posted by wenestvedt at 1:38 PM on January 23
Is that a Trump quote?
posted by wenestvedt at 1:38 PM on January 23
I believe it's a Trump quote about Nikki Haley personally defending the Capital during the war of 1812.
posted by hippybear at 2:02 PM on January 23
posted by hippybear at 2:02 PM on January 23
Somewhere out there, Dubya is thinking "It's not the... dog... of... you won't get fooled again!"
posted by Flunkie at 2:23 PM on January 23 [5 favorites]
posted by Flunkie at 2:23 PM on January 23 [5 favorites]
ob1quixote: ““A few words of consolation for my close personal friend Ron DeSantis, who has ended his Presidential campaign,””Sigh, I accidentally the link.
https://thewhitepages.substack.com/p/a-few-words-of-consolation-for-my
posted by ob1quixote at 2:46 PM on January 23 [2 favorites]
Heading back to the discussion of winding down campaigns and money I found Federal Election Commission Regulations section 116 which addresses this.
My very-much-not-a-lawyer thoughts on reading these regulations:
1) It sure looks to me like campaigns are required by Federal law to pay all outstanding debts and obligations in full unless they've specifically negotiated partial payments or waivers with their many and various creditors (including employees) and have filed the necessary paperwork with the FEC registering these negotiations. I have no idea how well this lines up with regular state and Federal laws about debts owed by businesses. But it looks like a fuck of a lot of work.
2) It seems that a campaign could file for Chapter 7 "Liquidation" bankruptcy and if they succeed they get out of paying most/all of its debt. But a quick Google suggests that the judge in charge of the bankruptcy proceedings is free to go "Nope" unless and until the org or business asking for Chapter 7 shows up with lots of cold hard evidence that they really can't raise any more money to pay off debt. Were I such a judge who just watched a campaign very publicly raise and spend millions in cash I would not be inclined to cut a campaign slack at all - not least because this would not be the first rodeo for pretty much everyone involved with the campaign, they knew going into it that paying off debts was part of the process even if they lose.
3) It's not at all clear to me whether the personal property and assets of the candidate and/or the officers of the campaign PAC can be required to be used to pay off campaign debt if push comes to shove. But maybe? At least to some extent? So that would be another reason where it's better to owe the Koch Foundation some favors rather than have to sell your house to get money to officially close out your campaign.
posted by soundguy99 at 3:53 PM on January 23
My very-much-not-a-lawyer thoughts on reading these regulations:
1) It sure looks to me like campaigns are required by Federal law to pay all outstanding debts and obligations in full unless they've specifically negotiated partial payments or waivers with their many and various creditors (including employees) and have filed the necessary paperwork with the FEC registering these negotiations. I have no idea how well this lines up with regular state and Federal laws about debts owed by businesses. But it looks like a fuck of a lot of work.
2) It seems that a campaign could file for Chapter 7 "Liquidation" bankruptcy and if they succeed they get out of paying most/all of its debt. But a quick Google suggests that the judge in charge of the bankruptcy proceedings is free to go "Nope" unless and until the org or business asking for Chapter 7 shows up with lots of cold hard evidence that they really can't raise any more money to pay off debt. Were I such a judge who just watched a campaign very publicly raise and spend millions in cash I would not be inclined to cut a campaign slack at all - not least because this would not be the first rodeo for pretty much everyone involved with the campaign, they knew going into it that paying off debts was part of the process even if they lose.
3) It's not at all clear to me whether the personal property and assets of the candidate and/or the officers of the campaign PAC can be required to be used to pay off campaign debt if push comes to shove. But maybe? At least to some extent? So that would be another reason where it's better to owe the Koch Foundation some favors rather than have to sell your house to get money to officially close out your campaign.
posted by soundguy99 at 3:53 PM on January 23
Welp, Trump's projected to win NH pretty handily (currently he's up about 8%, and NYT's current estimate for a final margin of 11%).
posted by Flunkie at 5:45 PM on January 23
posted by Flunkie at 5:45 PM on January 23
And Biden is going to win by 50 points as a write-in candidate when he wasn't even officially in the race in the state. A good reminder that he is much more well liked amongst Democrats and Democratic-affiliated independents than you might think based on reading social media or Metafilter.
posted by Justinian at 6:10 PM on January 23 [4 favorites]
posted by Justinian at 6:10 PM on January 23 [4 favorites]
the Republicans and Evangelicals are the root cause and need to be called out whenever possible to make it clear that there is no good option there
It's like they saw what happened in Iran in 1979 and said, "See, it is possible!"
posted by clawsoon at 7:12 PM on January 23 [4 favorites]
It's like they saw what happened in Iran in 1979 and said, "See, it is possible!"
posted by clawsoon at 7:12 PM on January 23 [4 favorites]
It's like they saw what happened in Iran in 1979 and said, "See, it is possible!"
I'm glad I'm not the only person on the planet that has seen this echo and rhyme.
posted by hippybear at 7:22 PM on January 23 [1 favorite]
I'm glad I'm not the only person on the planet that has seen this echo and rhyme.
posted by hippybear at 7:22 PM on January 23 [1 favorite]
538 podcast discussion of NH primary results: The GOP primary is basically over
There's a line of argument in that discussion, I'll paraphrase poorly from memory: if you made a state in a laboratory specifically to vote for Haley, then that state would be NH -- Haley essentially needed to win _all_ the delegates in NH to remain competitive given there are other states where demographics & polling are not in her favor. But, that didn't happen.
posted by are-coral-made at 3:23 AM on January 24
There's a line of argument in that discussion, I'll paraphrase poorly from memory: if you made a state in a laboratory specifically to vote for Haley, then that state would be NH -- Haley essentially needed to win _all_ the delegates in NH to remain competitive given there are other states where demographics & polling are not in her favor. But, that didn't happen.
posted by are-coral-made at 3:23 AM on January 24
I don’t have much expectation about campaign laws being enforced after I saw what happened to the Palins after multiple blatant violations, e.g., nothing.
posted by bq at 8:01 AM on January 24
posted by bq at 8:01 AM on January 24
“Nation Rejects Sweaty Pig,” Albert Burneko, Defector, 23 January 2024
posted by ob1quixote at 2:34 PM on January 24 [1 favorite]
posted by ob1quixote at 2:34 PM on January 24 [1 favorite]
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posted by Going To Maine at 12:39 PM on January 21 [167 favorites]