The right side of history (and the cost curve)
March 26, 2024 8:42 PM Subscribe
"We learned when somebody's back is up against the wall, they come up with a lot of creative solutions. And if they don't have a lot of money, like Ukraine doesn't, they can figure it out." As crucial American aid remains tied up in Congress, Ukrainian defenses have been forced to improvise with cheaper, lower-tech, but surprisingly effective countermeasures, from bleeding-edge first-person piloted kamikaze drones and repurposed Soviet tech to pickup truck-mounted MIRV launchers and "FrankenSAM" hybrids to Project Safe Skies: a donation-driven network of 8,000 cellphones and mics on sticks whose crowdsourced acoustic monitoring detected 84 out of 84 Russian UAVs in one day and shot down 80 of them with anti-aircraft fire -- at a cost of only $500 a pop.
William Gibson proves to be as prescient as ever. The street really does find its own uses for things.
posted by mmcg at 9:42 PM on March 26 [10 favorites]
posted by mmcg at 9:42 PM on March 26 [10 favorites]
Ukraine: Enemy in the Woods is a new documentary built from a group of Ukrainian soldiers' body camera and drone footage as they fight to defend a crucial railway line from Russian attacks. It showed on the BBC this week and is presumably available somewhere on US media too. There's some extraordinary FPV drone footage included. Here's The Guardian's review.
posted by Paul Slade at 12:44 AM on March 27 [5 favorites]
posted by Paul Slade at 12:44 AM on March 27 [5 favorites]
I have deep quaker roots. One thing that I learned: the testimony of peace is not always seen as absolute. Quakers fought in both world wars, believing them to be just.
With the possible exception of Operation Deliberate Force in the Bosnian war (intervening to stop genocide), funding Ukrainian self defense may be one of the only just wars the West has been involved in, since then. It has led me to dramatically shift my relationship to pacifism.
Russia is undertaking an aggressive campaign of ethnic cleansing. They are kidnapping Ukrainian children en masse and rededicating them. They are forcibly conscripting Ukrainian men in Eastern Ukraine and forcing them to attack at gunpoint. They are staging field executions when soldiers refuse to fight.
Current estimates are that if Ukraine falls, it will require additional defense spending of 1% of GDP across the west, in perpetuity.
Funding Ukraine is one of the most obvious things we could do, morally, economically, and politically. The failure of the American right to pass a funding bill in November was inexcusable. That we've slipped almost to April is a permanent stain.
Ethnic cleansing citations:
https://cepa.org/article/behind-the-lines-russias-ethnic-cleansing/
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/fact-sheet-kremlins-occupation-playbook-coerced-russification-and-ethnic-cleansing
Defense spending citations:
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/12/13/russia-ukraine-war-west-funding-00131638
https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/the-high-price-of-losing-ukraine
A discussion of the peace testimony and world war 1:
https://www.quaker.org.uk/faith/our-history/ww1
posted by constraint at 3:29 AM on March 27 [46 favorites]
With the possible exception of Operation Deliberate Force in the Bosnian war (intervening to stop genocide), funding Ukrainian self defense may be one of the only just wars the West has been involved in, since then. It has led me to dramatically shift my relationship to pacifism.
Russia is undertaking an aggressive campaign of ethnic cleansing. They are kidnapping Ukrainian children en masse and rededicating them. They are forcibly conscripting Ukrainian men in Eastern Ukraine and forcing them to attack at gunpoint. They are staging field executions when soldiers refuse to fight.
Current estimates are that if Ukraine falls, it will require additional defense spending of 1% of GDP across the west, in perpetuity.
Funding Ukraine is one of the most obvious things we could do, morally, economically, and politically. The failure of the American right to pass a funding bill in November was inexcusable. That we've slipped almost to April is a permanent stain.
Ethnic cleansing citations:
https://cepa.org/article/behind-the-lines-russias-ethnic-cleansing/
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/fact-sheet-kremlins-occupation-playbook-coerced-russification-and-ethnic-cleansing
Defense spending citations:
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/12/13/russia-ukraine-war-west-funding-00131638
https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/the-high-price-of-losing-ukraine
A discussion of the peace testimony and world war 1:
https://www.quaker.org.uk/faith/our-history/ww1
posted by constraint at 3:29 AM on March 27 [46 favorites]
Getting involved in Ukraine may lead to a world war so I'm not really sure "funding" Ukraine (whatever that means, given how much of the money sent their directly ends up being stolen) is in the best interests of long-term peace.
posted by drstrangelove at 3:39 AM on March 27
posted by drstrangelove at 3:39 AM on March 27
It means continuing to supply weapons and especially ammunition to the Ukrainian military. That level of involvement has been occurring for years now, without causing a world war.
There are things to criticize about Ukraine's government, and there are consistent arguments for absolute pacifism, but refusing to act now because Putin might choose to escalate in response seems like an excess of caution given the history of the conflict.
posted by The Manwich Horror at 3:55 AM on March 27 [34 favorites]
There are things to criticize about Ukraine's government, and there are consistent arguments for absolute pacifism, but refusing to act now because Putin might choose to escalate in response seems like an excess of caution given the history of the conflict.
posted by The Manwich Horror at 3:55 AM on March 27 [34 favorites]
That's just wrong.
Russia has been progressively dismantling it's neighbor states with an overt goal of reinstating Russia as a world power. Getting involved in Ukraine holds the line somewhere defensible. See what happened in Syria or Belarus or Ukraine in 2014, most recently.
Not getting involved means the line will be much harder to defend. The war is coming, our participation now will not change that.
Russia has been continually invading and consolidating border states for the last 15 years.
posted by constraint at 3:59 AM on March 27 [25 favorites]
Russia has been progressively dismantling it's neighbor states with an overt goal of reinstating Russia as a world power. Getting involved in Ukraine holds the line somewhere defensible. See what happened in Syria or Belarus or Ukraine in 2014, most recently.
Not getting involved means the line will be much harder to defend. The war is coming, our participation now will not change that.
Russia has been continually invading and consolidating border states for the last 15 years.
posted by constraint at 3:59 AM on March 27 [25 favorites]
Also, Republicans want to defund Ukraine not because they are pacifists or afraid of war, but because they are Putin's lackeys. Either directly on the payroll or just admirers of authoritarianism and homophobia.
posted by rikschell at 4:35 AM on March 27 [26 favorites]
posted by rikschell at 4:35 AM on March 27 [26 favorites]
> Getting involved in Ukraine may lead to a world war
oh for fucks sake
posted by postcommunism at 5:39 AM on March 27 [47 favorites]
oh for fucks sake
posted by postcommunism at 5:39 AM on March 27 [47 favorites]
I've been of the opinion than given the rate of technological change, many of the things that required state support to do 50-75 years ago can be done by individuals, today: bombs, guns, drones, radar, and small planes do not require the resources of an entire country the way they did in WWII.
There are exceptions: battleship and atomic weapons, for example, but there's still a lot
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 6:00 AM on March 27 [1 favorite]
There are exceptions: battleship and atomic weapons, for example, but there's still a lot
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 6:00 AM on March 27 [1 favorite]
Getting involved in Ukraine may lead to a world war so I'm not really sure "funding" Ukraine (whatever that means, given how much of the money sent their directly ends up being stolen) is in the best interests of long-term peace.
Not getting involved is much more likely to lead to a world war. There are a lot of lessons from World War 2 that are being ignored by many people.
Putin’s goals are far bigger than just Ukraine. He wants to take more of Europe as well, particularly the former Soviet states. If he were to succeed in Ukraine, who’s next? Countries like Lithuania and Poland could very easily be next targets. Putin is stirring up trouble in Moldova as well. Belarus is a client state and Lukashenko has somehow managed to keep from having to send his military in while also not being deposed by Putin. Think about what the implications of a Russian invasion of Lithuania or Poland - those are NATO members. Russia wants Ukraine’s resources and industry and they’d need it to go much further in Europe.
The US, aside from a few trainers and advisors, has kept its troops out of the war. A great deal of the weapons and equipment that have been sent to Ukraine are surplus and much of it was set to be scrapped. For a small fraction of the defense budget, US aid has not only helped Ukraine fight back, it has also helped grind the Russian war machine down badly, to a point where they may not be able to project power for a decade or two at least. Russia has been bringing ancient tanks out of mothballs, they have been buying artillery shells from North Korea (word is close to half of those shells are duds) and their air force is being withered.
Yes, Russia has nukes, but nuclear threats are all they have right now against the west. It’s one thing for them to make it known that they will be used if Russia is attacked, it’s another for them to try to use them as foreign policy cudgels (which is a bit ironic right now because of the way the US used atomic threats to try to keep the USSR in line after WW2. That stopped once the Soviets successfully built atomic weapons themselves.) Who knows, the chance of them using their nukes is not zero, but they also know that if they did start nuking NATO countries that Moscow would be reduced to cinders within a half hour. That is obviously something Putin does not want. Some months into the war, when things weren’t going as well as Russia had hoped, there was talk about using tactical nukes against Ukraine. The US communicated clearly to Russia basically that “look, you really don’t want to do this, there will be a response, it likely won’t be nuclear but it will still be devastating.”
posted by azpenguin at 7:20 AM on March 27 [19 favorites]
Not getting involved is much more likely to lead to a world war. There are a lot of lessons from World War 2 that are being ignored by many people.
Putin’s goals are far bigger than just Ukraine. He wants to take more of Europe as well, particularly the former Soviet states. If he were to succeed in Ukraine, who’s next? Countries like Lithuania and Poland could very easily be next targets. Putin is stirring up trouble in Moldova as well. Belarus is a client state and Lukashenko has somehow managed to keep from having to send his military in while also not being deposed by Putin. Think about what the implications of a Russian invasion of Lithuania or Poland - those are NATO members. Russia wants Ukraine’s resources and industry and they’d need it to go much further in Europe.
The US, aside from a few trainers and advisors, has kept its troops out of the war. A great deal of the weapons and equipment that have been sent to Ukraine are surplus and much of it was set to be scrapped. For a small fraction of the defense budget, US aid has not only helped Ukraine fight back, it has also helped grind the Russian war machine down badly, to a point where they may not be able to project power for a decade or two at least. Russia has been bringing ancient tanks out of mothballs, they have been buying artillery shells from North Korea (word is close to half of those shells are duds) and their air force is being withered.
Yes, Russia has nukes, but nuclear threats are all they have right now against the west. It’s one thing for them to make it known that they will be used if Russia is attacked, it’s another for them to try to use them as foreign policy cudgels (which is a bit ironic right now because of the way the US used atomic threats to try to keep the USSR in line after WW2. That stopped once the Soviets successfully built atomic weapons themselves.) Who knows, the chance of them using their nukes is not zero, but they also know that if they did start nuking NATO countries that Moscow would be reduced to cinders within a half hour. That is obviously something Putin does not want. Some months into the war, when things weren’t going as well as Russia had hoped, there was talk about using tactical nukes against Ukraine. The US communicated clearly to Russia basically that “look, you really don’t want to do this, there will be a response, it likely won’t be nuclear but it will still be devastating.”
posted by azpenguin at 7:20 AM on March 27 [19 favorites]
> For a small fraction of the defense budget, US aid has not only helped Ukraine fight back, it has also helped grind the Russian war machine down badly, to a point where they may not be able to project power for a decade or two at least.
I've read estimates from the UK MoD and others that the 5% of the US's military "budget" (it's not money we're sending, as azpenguin points out, it's old tech) we've sent to Ukraine has resulted in a 50% degradation of Russia's military capability. It's the bargain of the century if we want to stem the ambitions of a literal-empire building dictator.
posted by riotnrrd at 8:34 AM on March 27 [26 favorites]
I've read estimates from the UK MoD and others that the 5% of the US's military "budget" (it's not money we're sending, as azpenguin points out, it's old tech) we've sent to Ukraine has resulted in a 50% degradation of Russia's military capability. It's the bargain of the century if we want to stem the ambitions of a literal-empire building dictator.
posted by riotnrrd at 8:34 AM on March 27 [26 favorites]
given how much of the money sent [to Ukraine] directly ends up being stolen
Aside from the fact that most Western aid goes to western providers of arms and ammunition and never touches Ukrainian soil, has there been any evidence of this being an ongoing and serious problem? I know some billions are sent directly to keep the Ukrainian economy chugging along, but the only thing I've heard is that American aid monitors continually report that material and financial aid is going where it's supposed to, for the most part. The only scandal I can recall hearing about is the previous Ukrainian defense minister being associated with overpaying for some supply contracts to people who may be cronies.
Like Constraint, I believe this is about the most just war I've seen to date (after a lot of plainly unjust ones). I was quite bullish on Ukrainian chances, mainly being unable to conceive of Russia continuing after Bakhmut and Prigozin's march on Moscow. That whole sequence of events had me positive some sort of Russian collapse was imminent, or recognizing that, Putin would withdraw or consolidate. I also believe the Ukrainian counteroffensive was going to finally find the breaking point of the Russian lines because it was inconceivable to me that they weren't close, given the sheer punishment Russia was taking. But the line held, and Russia completed a rail connection from the Donbass to Melitopol, so Crimea is no longer a logistics chokepoint. Russia is stronger in the south than they've ever been.
I was wrong and everything since then has made me radically rethink how much the Russian army and state is willing to sacrifice for little gain except keeping up the pressure on Ukraine. And following that, the fecklessness of US aid due to fucking Republicans has had only one benefit, which is to shake up Europeans into taking the lead. It's just so fucking horrible that Ukraine is on its back foot again because they're being starved of ammunition and the Russian enemy is just so monstrously indifferent to losses.
posted by fatbird at 8:50 AM on March 27 [18 favorites]
Aside from the fact that most Western aid goes to western providers of arms and ammunition and never touches Ukrainian soil, has there been any evidence of this being an ongoing and serious problem? I know some billions are sent directly to keep the Ukrainian economy chugging along, but the only thing I've heard is that American aid monitors continually report that material and financial aid is going where it's supposed to, for the most part. The only scandal I can recall hearing about is the previous Ukrainian defense minister being associated with overpaying for some supply contracts to people who may be cronies.
Like Constraint, I believe this is about the most just war I've seen to date (after a lot of plainly unjust ones). I was quite bullish on Ukrainian chances, mainly being unable to conceive of Russia continuing after Bakhmut and Prigozin's march on Moscow. That whole sequence of events had me positive some sort of Russian collapse was imminent, or recognizing that, Putin would withdraw or consolidate. I also believe the Ukrainian counteroffensive was going to finally find the breaking point of the Russian lines because it was inconceivable to me that they weren't close, given the sheer punishment Russia was taking. But the line held, and Russia completed a rail connection from the Donbass to Melitopol, so Crimea is no longer a logistics chokepoint. Russia is stronger in the south than they've ever been.
I was wrong and everything since then has made me radically rethink how much the Russian army and state is willing to sacrifice for little gain except keeping up the pressure on Ukraine. And following that, the fecklessness of US aid due to fucking Republicans has had only one benefit, which is to shake up Europeans into taking the lead. It's just so fucking horrible that Ukraine is on its back foot again because they're being starved of ammunition and the Russian enemy is just so monstrously indifferent to losses.
posted by fatbird at 8:50 AM on March 27 [18 favorites]
> Getting involved in Ukraine may lead to a world war
Ok, Mr Chamberlain, but have you ever considered that perhaps abandon the Sudetenland and its people won't actually stop anything?
posted by Back At It Again At Krispy Kreme at 10:32 AM on March 27 [17 favorites]
Ok, Mr Chamberlain, but have you ever considered that perhaps abandon the Sudetenland and its people won't actually stop anything?
posted by Back At It Again At Krispy Kreme at 10:32 AM on March 27 [17 favorites]
Strategically, all the threats of escalating to a world war are mostly empty, and appeasement is the worst option. But in terms of anxiety, outcomes like world war 3 nevertheless seem closer than ever in my lifetime and I'm inclined to be charitable to people who worry about it.
posted by fatbird at 11:51 AM on March 27 [2 favorites]
posted by fatbird at 11:51 AM on March 27 [2 favorites]
Those who have followed politics surrounding Ukraine in the last decade or two has seen the checklist of Russian-inspired false claims against Ukraine:
— it's corrupt;
— helping Ukraine will cause WW3;
— Ukrainians are just Russians who are mislead by the West into thinking they deserve their own nation;
— nazis everywhere in Ukraine;
— Zelensky is "not a real Jew" and was planted by the West to achieve their goals
— NATO promised never to expand and forced dear leader putin to defend himself by attacking Ukraine;
— and so on.
Pick an argument or two out of a hat and post away... But it's all junk in either case.
posted by UN at 12:27 PM on March 27 [14 favorites]
— it's corrupt;
— helping Ukraine will cause WW3;
— Ukrainians are just Russians who are mislead by the West into thinking they deserve their own nation;
— nazis everywhere in Ukraine;
— Zelensky is "not a real Jew" and was planted by the West to achieve their goals
— NATO promised never to expand and forced dear leader putin to defend himself by attacking Ukraine;
— and so on.
Pick an argument or two out of a hat and post away... But it's all junk in either case.
posted by UN at 12:27 PM on March 27 [14 favorites]
Ukraine does have a problem with fascist militias. They were active during Euromaidan and are actively integrated into the Ukrainian military. And I'd be very, very surprised if the CIA hadn't been funding and arming them for a long time. They pose a real threat to the welfare of a lot of Ukrainians.
But Russia is actually run by fascists and poses a much larger, much more immediate threat. And nothing can be done about Ukraine's fascists until Russia is defeated. If Ukraine survives this war, Ukrainian fascists will have Putin to thank for their vastly increased access to power, weapons, and political legitimacy.
posted by The Manwich Horror at 2:17 PM on March 27
But Russia is actually run by fascists and poses a much larger, much more immediate threat. And nothing can be done about Ukraine's fascists until Russia is defeated. If Ukraine survives this war, Ukrainian fascists will have Putin to thank for their vastly increased access to power, weapons, and political legitimacy.
posted by The Manwich Horror at 2:17 PM on March 27
is Ukraine's problem with fascist militias comparable to France's problem with fascist political movements? or apples to apples, fascist militias in the US?
I guess I'm wondering how big the problem is. Like, worth mentioning? It's such a convenient echo of a Russian claim and I am wondering what the evidence is, behind the claim. Are we talking hundreds of well-armed and committed fascists? Thousands?
If Russia hadn't invaded Ukraine at least partly to deal with "the nazi problem" I'd be inclined to be curious about fascism in Ukraine. should I be more or less curious re: fascism in other parts of Europe and N. America? at the end of the day, I'd say Ukraine is dealing with an existential crisis and (my area) N. America is playing sexy games with fascist tendencies in politics and I'm hard pressed to care about fascist militias in Ukraine, to be very honest.
posted by elkevelvet at 4:02 PM on March 27 [4 favorites]
I guess I'm wondering how big the problem is. Like, worth mentioning? It's such a convenient echo of a Russian claim and I am wondering what the evidence is, behind the claim. Are we talking hundreds of well-armed and committed fascists? Thousands?
If Russia hadn't invaded Ukraine at least partly to deal with "the nazi problem" I'd be inclined to be curious about fascism in Ukraine. should I be more or less curious re: fascism in other parts of Europe and N. America? at the end of the day, I'd say Ukraine is dealing with an existential crisis and (my area) N. America is playing sexy games with fascist tendencies in politics and I'm hard pressed to care about fascist militias in Ukraine, to be very honest.
posted by elkevelvet at 4:02 PM on March 27 [4 favorites]
Men in pickup trucks in the panhandle of Idaho shouting racist obscenities at a women's basketball team staying in a very upscale hotel for an NCAA tournament? Yeah, I don't worry too much about fascists in Ukraine these days.
posted by hippybear at 4:18 PM on March 27 [3 favorites]
posted by hippybear at 4:18 PM on March 27 [3 favorites]
is Ukraine's problem with fascist militias comparable to France's problem with fascist political movements? or apples to apples, fascist militias in the US?
I am not an expert in Ukrainian politics by any stretch of the imagination. But fighting by far right militias played a substantial role in the fall of the Yanukovych government, which would definitely be cause for alarm in France or the US, I would think. And those militias have been effectively folded into the Ukrainian military and treated as heros by the current government. Which is also very concerning.
Yeah, I don't worry too much about fascists in Ukraine these days.
Ukrainian minorities may feel otherwise.
A problem can be a propaganda boon for Vladimir Putin and still be a real problem.
posted by The Manwich Horror at 4:27 PM on March 27
I am not an expert in Ukrainian politics by any stretch of the imagination. But fighting by far right militias played a substantial role in the fall of the Yanukovych government, which would definitely be cause for alarm in France or the US, I would think. And those militias have been effectively folded into the Ukrainian military and treated as heros by the current government. Which is also very concerning.
Yeah, I don't worry too much about fascists in Ukraine these days.
Ukrainian minorities may feel otherwise.
A problem can be a propaganda boon for Vladimir Putin and still be a real problem.
posted by The Manwich Horror at 4:27 PM on March 27
I'm pretty sure everyone in Ukraine right now is being Ukrainian, and it will be after this war stops that any groups would separate again. That's how humanity generally works.
If you have reports of Ukrainian upon Ukrainian violence motivated by differences in minority groups since this war began, I plead for you to post them here. Otherwise, stop saying this is a real thing because you have zero proof.
posted by hippybear at 4:34 PM on March 27 [2 favorites]
If you have reports of Ukrainian upon Ukrainian violence motivated by differences in minority groups since this war began, I plead for you to post them here. Otherwise, stop saying this is a real thing because you have zero proof.
posted by hippybear at 4:34 PM on March 27 [2 favorites]
That was never my claim. I find it highly unlikely there would be any such evidence whether or not such violence was occurring. And right now it probably isn't. The entire Ukrainian military is very busy.
What I did say was that they had a fascist problem. The fact that the heavily armed neo-Nazis close to the seat of power and lionized by the government are busy killing Russians right now doesn't mean they are going to be less bigoted and violent after the war.
And you can find plenty of reports about Azov and Pravti Sektor groups engaged in anti-LGBT violence after 2014.
This is something that is legitimately concerning, even if Putin uses it for propaganda. I don't have an obvious solution, but I don't think their is much point to pretending it isn't true.
posted by The Manwich Horror at 4:48 PM on March 27
What I did say was that they had a fascist problem. The fact that the heavily armed neo-Nazis close to the seat of power and lionized by the government are busy killing Russians right now doesn't mean they are going to be less bigoted and violent after the war.
And you can find plenty of reports about Azov and Pravti Sektor groups engaged in anti-LGBT violence after 2014.
This is something that is legitimately concerning, even if Putin uses it for propaganda. I don't have an obvious solution, but I don't think their is much point to pretending it isn't true.
posted by The Manwich Horror at 4:48 PM on March 27
I'm not going to provide sources, especially since they mostly came from the site formerly known as Twitter, but last I saw Ukraine has socialists and anarchists in its armed forces and national guard. I've also seen that foreign anarchists have volunteered to help Ukraine, and that it has an lgbtq "Unicorn Battalion." I expect the only anarchists and lgbtq "terrorists" in the Russian armed forces are in penal battalions.
Anyway, may your fears and concerns consider that Ukraine is also training up a lot of people who know about 43 Group.
posted by house-goblin at 6:04 PM on March 27 [2 favorites]
Anyway, may your fears and concerns consider that Ukraine is also training up a lot of people who know about 43 Group.
posted by house-goblin at 6:04 PM on March 27 [2 favorites]
Ukraine has made very effective use of domestically-designed naval drones:
Ukraine war: The sea drones keeping Russia's warships at bay [BBC]
Costing a relatively cheap $250,000 each, the drones have caused significant damage to the russian navy, and contributed to restricting the fleet's freedom of movement on the Black Sea.
The latest crowd-sourced naval drone will be named NAFOleon Blownapart.
posted by Kabanos at 7:19 PM on March 27 [3 favorites]
Ukraine war: The sea drones keeping Russia's warships at bay [BBC]
Costing a relatively cheap $250,000 each, the drones have caused significant damage to the russian navy, and contributed to restricting the fleet's freedom of movement on the Black Sea.
The latest crowd-sourced naval drone will be named NAFOleon Blownapart.
posted by Kabanos at 7:19 PM on March 27 [3 favorites]
One of the reasons the summer counter-offensive failed to achieve its goals was because Ukraine was trying to fight like a NATO army, using NATO tactics, but with no NATO air support. We can't train Ukrainians to fight like a Western army then give them none of the advantages Western armies possess. Such a shameful way to treat an ally.
Frankly, I blame Biden for the current state of the war. If we'd given Ukraine everything they actually needed back in 2022, major combat operations could very well have been over by now. But no, we held back vital support, insisted we knew better than Ukraine how their war should be fought. Now, there's little we can do but hope for an end to gridlock.
Putin bet that the West would buckle the longer the war dragged on, and fuck him, he was right.
posted by lock robster at 7:37 PM on March 27 [4 favorites]
Frankly, I blame Biden for the current state of the war. If we'd given Ukraine everything they actually needed back in 2022, major combat operations could very well have been over by now. But no, we held back vital support, insisted we knew better than Ukraine how their war should be fought. Now, there's little we can do but hope for an end to gridlock.
Putin bet that the West would buckle the longer the war dragged on, and fuck him, he was right.
posted by lock robster at 7:37 PM on March 27 [4 favorites]
And what is truly insane about it is... Ukraine spending is government infusions of cash into American industry, boosting US jobs and putting money into the economy in a gigantic way! Every time we spent $1B on Ukraine, we spent $1B in our own arms factories and make lives of Americans better.
This isn't like the fabled pallets of cash that went missing in previous conflicts. This is local spending for a foreign conflict.
posted by hippybear at 7:49 PM on March 27 [4 favorites]
This isn't like the fabled pallets of cash that went missing in previous conflicts. This is local spending for a foreign conflict.
posted by hippybear at 7:49 PM on March 27 [4 favorites]
I am begging you, Americans, please stop doing this. When Ukraine-supportive watchers (as I am, and as there are a lot of in this thread) express concern about the fucking Azov, please don't jump in to say 'but actually America does this too'. At the moment there is no equivalent to a hard-right ultranationalist militia fully integrated on its own terms into the US Army, nor has any military arm of the United States---probably since the Civil War---had such an overt political affiliation of the Azov/3rd Separate Assault Brigade kind. The US forces have had a really very proud history of civilian control of the military. It's fundamentally different.
posted by Fiasco da Gama at 7:57 PM on March 27 [5 favorites]
posted by Fiasco da Gama at 7:57 PM on March 27 [5 favorites]
At the moment there is no equivalent to a hard-right ultranationalist militia fully integrated on its own terms into the US Army
Give us until the second or third week in November, they might have worked it out by then.
posted by hippybear at 8:04 PM on March 27 [2 favorites]
Give us until the second or third week in November, they might have worked it out by then.
posted by hippybear at 8:04 PM on March 27 [2 favorites]
The issue isn't whether Ukraine has nationalist elements or not; the issue is misrepresenting the problem as an argument to stop Western aid.
For those bringing out the argument, the juxtaposition with a pro-Ukraine statement doesn't do much for me. Supporting the victim is not blaming the victim.
posted by UN at 12:12 AM on March 28 [4 favorites]
For those bringing out the argument, the juxtaposition with a pro-Ukraine statement doesn't do much for me. Supporting the victim is not blaming the victim.
posted by UN at 12:12 AM on March 28 [4 favorites]
Well, the CBP has been edging towards that... Paramilitary with broad jurisdiction and ideologically aligned with fascists. I've actually been pleasantly surprised by Ukraine because in the aftermath of the 2014 revolution Svodoba and Pravy Sektor gained control of some ministries and regions, but fortunately their popularity has been waning.
At this point, we should support Ukraine as long as they're willing to fight (within certain limits), but they have less people and industry, so expectations ought to be realistic. Russia is innovating too and a lot of what we're seeing is coevolution.
Reaching for historical analogies is often a mistake. Just as people are reaching for the last World War where appeasement was a mistake, Chamberlain was reaching towards his last World War where acceding to Austria-Hungary's demands might've averted it. And many people in the run-up to WWI were thinking a short, fast war, like the Franco-Prussian war of 1870. During the Cold War both sides were very careful about possible escalation for good reason and when it ended everybody breathed a sigh of relief. The political landscape has changed dramatically, but materially, there are still enough nukes to end civilization - sometimes I wonder if rather than viewing that period as an aberration and bad dream, we ought to view the current one where the risks are perfunctorily dismissed as delusional.
posted by ndr at 1:31 AM on March 28 [1 favorite]
At this point, we should support Ukraine as long as they're willing to fight (within certain limits), but they have less people and industry, so expectations ought to be realistic. Russia is innovating too and a lot of what we're seeing is coevolution.
Reaching for historical analogies is often a mistake. Just as people are reaching for the last World War where appeasement was a mistake, Chamberlain was reaching towards his last World War where acceding to Austria-Hungary's demands might've averted it. And many people in the run-up to WWI were thinking a short, fast war, like the Franco-Prussian war of 1870. During the Cold War both sides were very careful about possible escalation for good reason and when it ended everybody breathed a sigh of relief. The political landscape has changed dramatically, but materially, there are still enough nukes to end civilization - sometimes I wonder if rather than viewing that period as an aberration and bad dream, we ought to view the current one where the risks are perfunctorily dismissed as delusional.
posted by ndr at 1:31 AM on March 28 [1 favorite]
'Doppelgänger': The Russian disinformation campaign denounced by France [Le Monde]
posted by UN at 1:32 AM on March 28 [2 favorites]
For over a year, a vast and sophisticated propaganda operation produced fake official websites and media articles, including impersonations of Le Monde. On Tuesday, France said Russia was conducting a 'hybrid war.'...on the topic of Ukraine supposedly being a place where Western money is wasted on. And yes, there's an ongoing thread on Russian disinfo.
Visually, the page resembles that of the French Ministry for Europe and Foreign Affairs. The graphic design, logo, and links to the ministry's official social media accounts all look like an official French diplomatic press release, like the ones the ministry publishes every day. Except that the information it shares – the introduction a 1.5% tax on "every monetary transaction" to finance military support for Ukraine – is false.
This very well-imitated page is, in fact, the tip of a vast Russian influence operation, which has been going on for over a year. The agents who created and circulated this fake French diplomatic page are also responsible for countless imitations of media articles, perfectly imitating the layouts of Le Monde and other newspapers such as Le Parisien and 20 Minutes as well as most of the major German media. Similar fakes have also been seen in Ukraine, Italy, and the United Kingdom.
posted by UN at 1:32 AM on March 28 [2 favorites]
For those bringing out the argument, the juxtaposition with a pro-Ukraine statement doesn't do much for me. Supporting the victim is not blaming the victim.
I don't think this is a useful framework for discussing nation states. Ukraine isn't a moral agent.
What we say as private individuals on a small corner if the internet isn't going to change world events. I want Biden to beat Trump, but that doesn't mean I am going to avoid criticizing him entirely. There is room to talk about things with nuance when you aren't on the nightly news. And there is value to acknowledging the truth, even when it is politically inconvenient.
Early in this conflict, I saw articles praising the heroics of Ukrainian soldiers, and the photographs of them showed obvious Nazi regalia. So did a lot of other people. Those images, and the history of Azov, and the reflexive accusations of being a Russian propagandist whenever anyone acknowledged them did far more to push communities I interact with away from supporting Ukraine than anything Putin ever said.
posted by The Manwich Horror at 7:13 AM on March 28
I don't think this is a useful framework for discussing nation states. Ukraine isn't a moral agent.
What we say as private individuals on a small corner if the internet isn't going to change world events. I want Biden to beat Trump, but that doesn't mean I am going to avoid criticizing him entirely. There is room to talk about things with nuance when you aren't on the nightly news. And there is value to acknowledging the truth, even when it is politically inconvenient.
Early in this conflict, I saw articles praising the heroics of Ukrainian soldiers, and the photographs of them showed obvious Nazi regalia. So did a lot of other people. Those images, and the history of Azov, and the reflexive accusations of being a Russian propagandist whenever anyone acknowledged them did far more to push communities I interact with away from supporting Ukraine than anything Putin ever said.
posted by The Manwich Horror at 7:13 AM on March 28
Those images, and the history of Azov, and the reflexive accusations of being a Russian propagandist whenever anyone acknowledged them did far more to push communities I interact with away from supporting Ukraine than anything Putin ever said.
It was Putin who framed Ukraine as having a "nazi problem" in the first place, so what Putin said is the reason those communities have turned away from supporting Ukraine (assuming they did so in the first place).
Many of those symbols and images that went viral early in the war were shown to be fakes or misleading and were pushed by Russian propagandists.
This doesn't mean there are no extreme right groups in Ukraine. But I don't see the value in promoting Putin's lies and hyper-inflated half-truths in any corner of the internet.
Let me out it another way. Russian state run media talks frequently about annihilating Berlin, Paris or London. A fair comment isn't "well, there are extreme right groups in England". Intent matters. Context matters.
posted by UN at 8:49 AM on March 28 [7 favorites]
It was Putin who framed Ukraine as having a "nazi problem" in the first place, so what Putin said is the reason those communities have turned away from supporting Ukraine (assuming they did so in the first place).
Many of those symbols and images that went viral early in the war were shown to be fakes or misleading and were pushed by Russian propagandists.
This doesn't mean there are no extreme right groups in Ukraine. But I don't see the value in promoting Putin's lies and hyper-inflated half-truths in any corner of the internet.
Let me out it another way. Russian state run media talks frequently about annihilating Berlin, Paris or London. A fair comment isn't "well, there are extreme right groups in England". Intent matters. Context matters.
posted by UN at 8:49 AM on March 28 [7 favorites]
It was Putin who framed Ukraine as having a "nazi problem" in the first place,
No, Putin used an actual problem as the basis for propaganda. The Nazis used the Klan as a propaganda point against the US. That didn't make the Klan fictitious.
There is definitely propaganda from Russia attempting to make Ukraine appear to be a fascist state over all. Russia didn't sneak images of Azov members wearing wolfsangles and black sun patches into fawning western media outlets.
I think I have been clear about supporting Ukraine and desiring the defeat of Russia. That doesn't mean I am going to pretend the growth and political legitimization of neo-Nazis in Ukraine is not a problem. A problem the Russian invasion has made immeasurably worse.
posted by The Manwich Horror at 9:25 AM on March 28
No, Putin used an actual problem as the basis for propaganda. The Nazis used the Klan as a propaganda point against the US. That didn't make the Klan fictitious.
There is definitely propaganda from Russia attempting to make Ukraine appear to be a fascist state over all. Russia didn't sneak images of Azov members wearing wolfsangles and black sun patches into fawning western media outlets.
I think I have been clear about supporting Ukraine and desiring the defeat of Russia. That doesn't mean I am going to pretend the growth and political legitimization of neo-Nazis in Ukraine is not a problem. A problem the Russian invasion has made immeasurably worse.
posted by The Manwich Horror at 9:25 AM on March 28
Russia is full of nazi fascists with their own zymbol and everything. But Ukraine and the KKK... what's your intent?
Meanwhile:
MOSCOW, March 28 (Reuters) - Russian investigators said on Thursday they had uncovered evidence that the gunmen who killed more than 140 people in an attack on a concert hall near Moscow last week were linked to "Ukrainian nationalists".
It continues...
posted by UN at 9:47 AM on March 28 [2 favorites]
Meanwhile:
MOSCOW, March 28 (Reuters) - Russian investigators said on Thursday they had uncovered evidence that the gunmen who killed more than 140 people in an attack on a concert hall near Moscow last week were linked to "Ukrainian nationalists".
It continues...
posted by UN at 9:47 AM on March 28 [2 favorites]
Can you imagine how frustrated and angry that ISIS group must be? They've been making public declarations owning that attack, even providing receipts, but it's been coopted by Putin for his own purposes. It's like a plot twist in a movie of some sort.
posted by hippybear at 9:50 AM on March 28 [3 favorites]
posted by hippybear at 9:50 AM on March 28 [3 favorites]
Russia is full of nazi fascists with their own zymbol and everything. But Ukraine and the KKK... what's your intent?
I think it is clear from the thread. Someone listed a bunch of Russian propaganda claims and said the proper response was that they were all lies.
I don't think that is right, because it won't convince anyone who is aware of the real problem. The proper reply is that the Russian government is entirely fascistic, and the Russian invasion has made the role of fascists in Ukraine much worse.
So if someone says they are worried about fascist for es in Ukraine, the right response isn't "there aren't any". It is "then hope they defeat Russia quickly." Because the "Nazi problem" is a reason to support a quick Ukrainiam victory, not to oppose them or be indifferent.
posted by The Manwich Horror at 9:54 AM on March 28
I think it is clear from the thread. Someone listed a bunch of Russian propaganda claims and said the proper response was that they were all lies.
I don't think that is right, because it won't convince anyone who is aware of the real problem. The proper reply is that the Russian government is entirely fascistic, and the Russian invasion has made the role of fascists in Ukraine much worse.
So if someone says they are worried about fascist for es in Ukraine, the right response isn't "there aren't any". It is "then hope they defeat Russia quickly." Because the "Nazi problem" is a reason to support a quick Ukrainiam victory, not to oppose them or be indifferent.
posted by The Manwich Horror at 9:54 AM on March 28
I don't know, I'm about as worried about fascist Ukrainian militants as I am about theocratic Palestinian militants
ideally, it's not good to be fascist or theocratic but focusing on that kind of stuff, under the circumstances, seems not entirely valid
it's like worrying if I paid my bill on time as a bus bears down on me
posted by elkevelvet at 2:58 PM on March 28
ideally, it's not good to be fascist or theocratic but focusing on that kind of stuff, under the circumstances, seems not entirely valid
it's like worrying if I paid my bill on time as a bus bears down on me
posted by elkevelvet at 2:58 PM on March 28
I am not saying it is the main problem Ukraine is facing right now. I am saying that telling someone who has qualms about supporting Ukraine because they see fascists fighting on Ukraine's side that the problem doesn't exist won't work, and plays directly into their expectations that people who disagree with them are uncritically absorbing western propaganda.
Acknowledging the reality of the problem, and putting it in context as something bad, but much less dangerous than Russian fascism and exacerbated by Russia's invasion address the worry much better because it doesn't involve lying to their face or trying to convince them to accept a narrative they know is false. Even Freedom House acknowledged the problem in a report in 2020, written before the wider invasion. This is not just Russian propaganda or left wing contrarianism and saying it is all false will completely undercut one's credibility with anyone who is aware of the situation. That is what I have been trying get across.
That said, I am really worried about the far right in Ukraine. Andres Wimmer argues that the danger posed is minimal and these groups will deradicalize, because they will be anxious to please the EU and NATO who will hold a hard line against right wing extremism. I think that is too optimistic on several levels.
I think they are going to demand a seat at the table after the fighting is done, and I think they will be found far more agreeable to both internal and external authorities than the leftist fighters who are also volunteering. Though seeking historical parallels is usually not helpful, I cannot help thinking about how the Afghan war empowered authoritarian groups that kept fighting long after the Soviet's left.
I hope I am entirely wrong. I hope the war resolves quickly in Ukraine's favor, and the right wing is back at the fringe in a few years I am embarassed at having read the situation so wrong. I will be happy to hear "I told you so". But I am not ready to expect it yet.
posted by The Manwich Horror at 5:43 PM on March 28 [1 favorite]
Acknowledging the reality of the problem, and putting it in context as something bad, but much less dangerous than Russian fascism and exacerbated by Russia's invasion address the worry much better because it doesn't involve lying to their face or trying to convince them to accept a narrative they know is false. Even Freedom House acknowledged the problem in a report in 2020, written before the wider invasion. This is not just Russian propaganda or left wing contrarianism and saying it is all false will completely undercut one's credibility with anyone who is aware of the situation. That is what I have been trying get across.
That said, I am really worried about the far right in Ukraine. Andres Wimmer argues that the danger posed is minimal and these groups will deradicalize, because they will be anxious to please the EU and NATO who will hold a hard line against right wing extremism. I think that is too optimistic on several levels.
I think they are going to demand a seat at the table after the fighting is done, and I think they will be found far more agreeable to both internal and external authorities than the leftist fighters who are also volunteering. Though seeking historical parallels is usually not helpful, I cannot help thinking about how the Afghan war empowered authoritarian groups that kept fighting long after the Soviet's left.
I hope I am entirely wrong. I hope the war resolves quickly in Ukraine's favor, and the right wing is back at the fringe in a few years I am embarassed at having read the situation so wrong. I will be happy to hear "I told you so". But I am not ready to expect it yet.
posted by The Manwich Horror at 5:43 PM on March 28 [1 favorite]
Why are you going on about this? You've had like 10 off ramps to this conversation but you just keep pounding the Ukrainian fascist issue! Can you just drop it? That's not even the topic of this thread!
posted by hippybear at 6:19 PM on March 28 [1 favorite]
posted by hippybear at 6:19 PM on March 28 [1 favorite]
I replied because people replied either asking what I meant or clearly misunderstanding my posts. I would be happy to be done with it.
posted by The Manwich Horror at 6:22 PM on March 28 [2 favorites]
posted by The Manwich Horror at 6:22 PM on March 28 [2 favorites]
Indeed. And I will go to bed. Sorry I get obsessive and don't notice how long or often I have been at something. I'll try to avoid bloating things up like this in future.
posted by The Manwich Horror at 6:42 PM on March 28
posted by The Manwich Horror at 6:42 PM on March 28
I'm willing to bet that everyone saying "this conflict may lead to all out war!" actually live in places that will not be touched by that imaginary war.
And then there are others who would be. Who are all in on victory for Ukraine.
posted by Pyrogenesis at 5:47 AM on March 29 [3 favorites]
And then there are others who would be. Who are all in on victory for Ukraine.
posted by Pyrogenesis at 5:47 AM on March 29 [3 favorites]
I must say another thing. It is of course obvious that "Ukrainians are nazis" is Russian propaganda. But I see here such casual and easy dismissal of all of it which is contrary to previous history, and which will happen again. In the future, when Ukraine wins this war (which it will), they are going to have a decades long problem and a national discussion about all the fascists, nazis, racists, bigots, etc who defended Ukraine at its hour of need. I don't mean at all that those were all of it, quite the contrary. The majority are not.
But I mean that I have literally seen what will happen and lived through it here in Estonia, where the question was about Estonian independence as a country. And there were thousands and thousands of people who decided that if you were a nazi (literally during WWII, SS members were rehabilitated, even in the Soviet Union) but supported the independence, you were fine. Nationalism, and victory in war was foremost, and whatever comes afterward we will settle when the time comes (we didn't). This will happen in Ukraine as well.
War in Ukraine is a just war. And they will win. But the legacy of it is going to last decades upon decades, like it did in Estonia from 1945 until, well, until today? It's shit and inevitable, and "many ukrainians were fine with fascists" is going to be part of that, even absent Russian propaganda. Do you want me to go and take a picture of a plaque of a Nazi officer up somewhere in small town Estonia right now? Some street named after a Luftwaffe pilot was literally in the news like a month ago. And people are fine with it.
I'm not good at explaining this. But I hope what I mean is at least somewhat clear.
posted by Pyrogenesis at 6:21 AM on March 29 [5 favorites]
But I mean that I have literally seen what will happen and lived through it here in Estonia, where the question was about Estonian independence as a country. And there were thousands and thousands of people who decided that if you were a nazi (literally during WWII, SS members were rehabilitated, even in the Soviet Union) but supported the independence, you were fine. Nationalism, and victory in war was foremost, and whatever comes afterward we will settle when the time comes (we didn't). This will happen in Ukraine as well.
War in Ukraine is a just war. And they will win. But the legacy of it is going to last decades upon decades, like it did in Estonia from 1945 until, well, until today? It's shit and inevitable, and "many ukrainians were fine with fascists" is going to be part of that, even absent Russian propaganda. Do you want me to go and take a picture of a plaque of a Nazi officer up somewhere in small town Estonia right now? Some street named after a Luftwaffe pilot was literally in the news like a month ago. And people are fine with it.
I'm not good at explaining this. But I hope what I mean is at least somewhat clear.
posted by Pyrogenesis at 6:21 AM on March 29 [5 favorites]
This time it's not so sharp an ideological confrontation of course. So it will probably be smoother.
I just... this war will have consequences for decades and decades after it ends. I'm just so despondent right now, sorry.
posted by Pyrogenesis at 6:32 AM on March 29 [1 favorite]
I just... this war will have consequences for decades and decades after it ends. I'm just so despondent right now, sorry.
posted by Pyrogenesis at 6:32 AM on March 29 [1 favorite]
There are Nazis in Ukraine. There are Nazis or fascists or hard-right violent nationalist authoritarians everywhere. It is right to be concerned about them. It is also important to keep the fact that they are always present in mind and not lose sight of the bigger picture.
I often disagree with a lot of what The Manwich Horror posts, but I don't think its right to try and force them onto an "off ramp" from the conversation. That xkcd comic cuts both ways.
posted by Reverend John at 6:55 AM on March 29 [2 favorites]
I often disagree with a lot of what The Manwich Horror posts, but I don't think its right to try and force them onto an "off ramp" from the conversation. That xkcd comic cuts both ways.
posted by Reverend John at 6:55 AM on March 29 [2 favorites]
Mod note: One comment removed. Please remember the Guideline to be considerate and respectful!
posted by Brandon Blatcher (staff) at 6:59 AM on March 29
posted by Brandon Blatcher (staff) at 6:59 AM on March 29
I'll try to avoid bloating things up like this in future.
On the contrary, watching the argument happen was informative and useful, which is not something we can always say about arguments in these political threads.
posted by mittens at 7:01 AM on March 29 [2 favorites]
On the contrary, watching the argument happen was informative and useful, which is not something we can always say about arguments in these political threads.
posted by mittens at 7:01 AM on March 29 [2 favorites]
These cheap new weapons are fearsome. WW1 represented the industrialization of war. Huge weapons produced at massive scale killed unprecedented numbers of people. Soldier-workers toiled at their machines to batter their targets. This Ukrainian war represents the automation of war. A few individuals set target-acquisition parameters in a murder app and then thousands of machines fan out to seek and destroy. And we are forced to support this, for all the complicated reasons that the Manwich Horror laid out, because Ukraine's only hope to resist the Putinists is to automate the attrition of Russians. My other hope is that the entire world decides that the era of freebooting robber barons is over and that Putin is isolated from every other person, every other source of supply until he retreats and returns every single Ukrainian.
posted by SnowRottie at 8:09 AM on March 29
posted by SnowRottie at 8:09 AM on March 29
This Ukrainian war represents the automation of war. A few individuals set target-acquisition parameters in a murder app and then thousands of machines fan out to seek and destroy.
This is not happening. Nothing like it is happening. They're considering trying something vaguely like this in a pilot program for drones. Every video of a drone dropping a grenade has a human pushing the buttons.
Drones, humans piloting every single one, are a dominating factor because they're cheap, numerous, and give unprecedented realtime knowledge of the battlefront. Stealth is nearly impossible, marshalling forces insanely risky, and armor uniquely vulnerable to being singled out for artillery. The war in Ukraine isn't the first automated war, it's the first transparent war. Between drones and cellphones and the use of social media to broadcast the lived reality of the front lines, it's the first war where the spectators can see it directly.
posted by fatbird at 8:55 AM on March 29 [3 favorites]
This is not happening. Nothing like it is happening. They're considering trying something vaguely like this in a pilot program for drones. Every video of a drone dropping a grenade has a human pushing the buttons.
Drones, humans piloting every single one, are a dominating factor because they're cheap, numerous, and give unprecedented realtime knowledge of the battlefront. Stealth is nearly impossible, marshalling forces insanely risky, and armor uniquely vulnerable to being singled out for artillery. The war in Ukraine isn't the first automated war, it's the first transparent war. Between drones and cellphones and the use of social media to broadcast the lived reality of the front lines, it's the first war where the spectators can see it directly.
posted by fatbird at 8:55 AM on March 29 [3 favorites]
At the moment there is no equivalent to a hard-right ultranationalist militia fully integrated on its own terms into the US Army
At the moment the U.S. isn't in a fight for its very existence. What's your point?
posted by HiroProtagonist at 7:10 PM on March 29 [1 favorite]
At the moment the U.S. isn't in a fight for its very existence. What's your point?
posted by HiroProtagonist at 7:10 PM on March 29 [1 favorite]
I am saying that telling someone who has qualms about supporting Ukraine because they see fascists fighting on Ukraine's side
People who have 'qualms' like this are just looking for an excuse to justify their moral failure. You can't seriously think that they're blind to what the Russians are.
This sort of stance has about as much credibility as someone purporting to have qualms about supporting the Allies in WWII because they see communists fighting on the same side - while completely ignoring their tacit support of the horrors going on in Nazi Germany.
posted by HiroProtagonist at 7:20 PM on March 29 [3 favorites]
People who have 'qualms' like this are just looking for an excuse to justify their moral failure. You can't seriously think that they're blind to what the Russians are.
This sort of stance has about as much credibility as someone purporting to have qualms about supporting the Allies in WWII because they see communists fighting on the same side - while completely ignoring their tacit support of the horrors going on in Nazi Germany.
posted by HiroProtagonist at 7:20 PM on March 29 [3 favorites]
Institute for the Study of War report: Denying Russia’s Only Strategy for Success
The notion that the war is unwinnable because of Russia’s dominance is a Russian information operation, which gives us a glimpse of the Kremlin’s real strategy and only real hope of success. The Kremlin must get the United States to the sidelines, allowing Russia to fight Ukraine in isolation and then proceed to Moscow’s next targets, which Russia will also seek to isolate. The Kremlin needs the United States to choose inaction and embrace the false inevitability that Russia will prevail in Ukraine. Vladimir Putin’s center of gravity is his ability to shape the will and decisions of the West, Ukraine, and Russia itself. The Russian strategy that matters most, therefore, is not Moscow’s warfighting strategy, but rather the Kremlin’s strategy to cause us to see the world as it wishes us to see it and make decisions in that Kremlin-generated alternative reality that will allow Russia to win in the real world.posted by hydropsyche at 3:24 AM on March 30 [3 favorites]
People who have 'qualms' like this are just looking for an excuse to justify their moral failure. You can't seriously think that they're blind to what the Russians are.
That is not my experience.
When I have seen this brought up in good faith, it is by people who have spent much of their lives opposing US military action, even when they faced a lot of pushback. They've gotten used to seeing propaganda used to frame imperial ambitions as moral crusades.
They see US pro-Ukrainian/anti-Russian propaganda and are predisposed to believe the opposite. The narrative pushed by Russia, of Euromaidan being a right wing, US backed coup exactly fits their expectations. I am sure some of them are deluded enough to believe Russia is the "good guy", but what i have heard from people I have argued with is that they see this as a war between right wing US puppets and Russia with the Ukrainian people as victims, and supplying weapons is just bleeding Russia and prolonging the war for the benefit of the US.
This falls apart if you actually take the time to look at the situation more carefully, or read what has been written by the Ukrainian left or pay attention to what has happened in Crimea since 2014. But most people are prone to stopping their research once we find a narrative that matches our initial prejudices.
posted by The Manwich Horror at 5:56 AM on March 30 [1 favorite]
That is not my experience.
When I have seen this brought up in good faith, it is by people who have spent much of their lives opposing US military action, even when they faced a lot of pushback. They've gotten used to seeing propaganda used to frame imperial ambitions as moral crusades.
They see US pro-Ukrainian/anti-Russian propaganda and are predisposed to believe the opposite. The narrative pushed by Russia, of Euromaidan being a right wing, US backed coup exactly fits their expectations. I am sure some of them are deluded enough to believe Russia is the "good guy", but what i have heard from people I have argued with is that they see this as a war between right wing US puppets and Russia with the Ukrainian people as victims, and supplying weapons is just bleeding Russia and prolonging the war for the benefit of the US.
This falls apart if you actually take the time to look at the situation more carefully, or read what has been written by the Ukrainian left or pay attention to what has happened in Crimea since 2014. But most people are prone to stopping their research once we find a narrative that matches our initial prejudices.
posted by The Manwich Horror at 5:56 AM on March 30 [1 favorite]
Thank you Fatbird for your correction. I wrote with too broad a brush. This war is not yet automated. The most advanced automation that I have seen is Ukrainian drones, once their human operator has identified and fixed a target, that fly themselves towards the target. This is technological workaround to counter electronic warfare. Russians are adept at interfering with signals between the operator and the drone. Signals jamming doesn't work if the drone is directing itself. Automated target acquisition is no doubt some way off, but unfortunately talented people are working to make it a reality.
On the other hand, we know that the Russians have fully automated loitering drones that automatically select their own targets because the Russians say so.
posted by SnowRottie at 7:38 AM on March 30 [2 favorites]
On the other hand, we know that the Russians have fully automated loitering drones that automatically select their own targets because the Russians say so.
posted by SnowRottie at 7:38 AM on March 30 [2 favorites]
They see US pro-Ukrainian/anti-Russian propaganda and are predisposed to believe the opposite.
You're talking about 'tankies'. I stand by my assessment.
They've gotten used to seeing propaganda used to frame imperial ambitions as moral crusades.
If this was truly the case, they'd be able to see Russian propaganda and imperial ambitions for what they are.
posted by HiroProtagonist at 5:29 PM on March 30 [2 favorites]
You're talking about 'tankies'. I stand by my assessment.
They've gotten used to seeing propaganda used to frame imperial ambitions as moral crusades.
If this was truly the case, they'd be able to see Russian propaganda and imperial ambitions for what they are.
posted by HiroProtagonist at 5:29 PM on March 30 [2 favorites]
"They've gotten used to seeing propaganda used to frame imperial ambitions as moral crusades."
Holy shit!
'The Russian military is reportedly forming mobile fire groups to mitigate against Ukrainian drone strike threats but will likely struggle to field these groups at the required scale in the near term.'
posted by clavdivs at 6:04 PM on March 30
Holy shit!
'The Russian military is reportedly forming mobile fire groups to mitigate against Ukrainian drone strike threats but will likely struggle to field these groups at the required scale in the near term.'
posted by clavdivs at 6:04 PM on March 30
You're talking about 'tankies'. I stand by my assessment.
I'm not. I'm mostly talking about anarchists, actually. If you tell self-serving lies to people continuously, they will assume everything you say is a self-serving lie. Even when you are telling self-serving truths.
This is very much a stopped clock situation. The US government is always working towards increased US power. Most of the time, this is antithetical to human dignity and welfare, This case is very much an exception to the norm. I imagine it will be the last for a long time. Maybe another 80 years.
posted by The Manwich Horror at 6:38 PM on March 30
I'm not. I'm mostly talking about anarchists, actually. If you tell self-serving lies to people continuously, they will assume everything you say is a self-serving lie. Even when you are telling self-serving truths.
This is very much a stopped clock situation. The US government is always working towards increased US power. Most of the time, this is antithetical to human dignity and welfare, This case is very much an exception to the norm. I imagine it will be the last for a long time. Maybe another 80 years.
posted by The Manwich Horror at 6:38 PM on March 30
Speaker Johnson is signalling intent to get funding passed for Ukraine, so maybe they won't have to be quite so resourceful soon. Johnson is about to find out how many members of his party are in Putin's pocket as opposed to just willing to help Putin murder people to hurt Biden's poll numbers.
posted by The Manwich Horror at 6:41 PM on March 30 [2 favorites]
posted by The Manwich Horror at 6:41 PM on March 30 [2 favorites]
Ukraine’s Ferocious Drone Arms Race
Deadly semi-autonomous drones are likely to flood Ukraine in the next six to 12 months. If Putin gets them first, experts predict a “catastrophe” for Ukraine and a woefully unprepared West.
Deadly semi-autonomous drones are likely to flood Ukraine in the next six to 12 months. If Putin gets them first, experts predict a “catastrophe” for Ukraine and a woefully unprepared West.
The drones use AI or machine learning technology to help their pilots to rapidly identify enemy targets and then strike them with automated guidance, akin to a “fire and forget” missile that locks onto a designated target and automatically homes in without the need for human intervention.posted by UN at 9:34 PM on March 30
Such smart drones could be made to be virtually impervious to electronic warfare and hit targets with pinpoint accuracy. Strike success rates for FPV (first-person view) attack drones could shoot up from the current 30 percent to 80 or 90 percent, Prodanyuk said.
Such drones would need only limited pilot training, meaning they would be far easier to use by even more troops. The war zone could become a killing field of vast aerial armadas raining down on everything within 20 kilometers of the front line.
I really hope that is some combination of propaganda and hype. What a nightmare if it is true.
posted by The Manwich Horror at 4:16 AM on March 31
posted by The Manwich Horror at 4:16 AM on March 31
I wouldn't be surprised if it's not already being used especially on stationary targets like all those refineries that were hit deep inside Russia recently. The computer vision technology is already here, in essence.
What we're seeing is a technological war. We haven't seen one in a very long time. Many of those Ukrainians who were working on agriculture tech for precision farming using computer vision and drones are making things that do something other than plan where to put how much fertilizer. It's about survival.
Russia also has the incentive. The longer the west drip feeds support to Ukraine, the more "creative" this war will become. A stalemate will be the most dangerous for Ukraine; once Putin has these weapons, and Ukraine is not free and part of NATO, they will be unleashed in sick, sick way.
posted by UN at 9:24 AM on March 31
What we're seeing is a technological war. We haven't seen one in a very long time. Many of those Ukrainians who were working on agriculture tech for precision farming using computer vision and drones are making things that do something other than plan where to put how much fertilizer. It's about survival.
Russia also has the incentive. The longer the west drip feeds support to Ukraine, the more "creative" this war will become. A stalemate will be the most dangerous for Ukraine; once Putin has these weapons, and Ukraine is not free and part of NATO, they will be unleashed in sick, sick way.
posted by UN at 9:24 AM on March 31
I would call it alarmist hype by a Ukrainian entity looking for more resources.
Putting AI or machine learning in a drone creates a paradox that undoes the benefit of drones, which is cheapness, which is large numbers. They're a zerg weapon. The more computing power you add, the heavier they are because they need more hardware, more batteries, more wingspan to lift all that, and they're more expensive as a result, which means fewer of them. It's an obvious general development for further down the road, but not at all suited to the role they're playing now in the war, on either side. There are lots of drone pilots and you don' t need to be that skilled to do it. Jamming is a problem, but the solution to jamming is to attack elsewhere with your cheap drones, like oil refineries.
We already have all this semi-autonomous technology, but when you put it on a weapons platform, the result is an expensive cruise missile.
And of course, if you do have semi-autonomous drones, you'll also have semi-autonomous drone killers floating about on quiet hover mode, or lazy 8s at high altitudes. The war in Ukraine is profoundly about the economics of force--witness how much Russia achieves with nothing but warm bodies sent out to die and plentiful artillery ammunition.
posted by fatbird at 9:28 AM on March 31
Putting AI or machine learning in a drone creates a paradox that undoes the benefit of drones, which is cheapness, which is large numbers. They're a zerg weapon. The more computing power you add, the heavier they are because they need more hardware, more batteries, more wingspan to lift all that, and they're more expensive as a result, which means fewer of them. It's an obvious general development for further down the road, but not at all suited to the role they're playing now in the war, on either side. There are lots of drone pilots and you don' t need to be that skilled to do it. Jamming is a problem, but the solution to jamming is to attack elsewhere with your cheap drones, like oil refineries.
We already have all this semi-autonomous technology, but when you put it on a weapons platform, the result is an expensive cruise missile.
And of course, if you do have semi-autonomous drones, you'll also have semi-autonomous drone killers floating about on quiet hover mode, or lazy 8s at high altitudes. The war in Ukraine is profoundly about the economics of force--witness how much Russia achieves with nothing but warm bodies sent out to die and plentiful artillery ammunition.
posted by fatbird at 9:28 AM on March 31
This isn't going to be like a cruise missile at all. Off-the-shelf smartphones have a lot of processing power; computer vision software of this kind is very much here and can run on a smartphone. It's not about AI, it's about image recognition detecting shapes and aiming the drone at them. It hasn't been done at scale yet because nobody had the need to; now they do.
The war in Ukraine is profoundly about the economics of force-
This doesn't apply to Ukraine, which was written off immediately by many, for the lack of economy of force. But it's still there for a reason and part of that reason is that it's on par or superior to Russia in many aspects of technology, and understanding how to apply technology.
It's why Russia in essence no longer has a Black Sea fleet. Ukrainian drone technology.
posted by UN at 10:13 AM on March 31
The war in Ukraine is profoundly about the economics of force-
This doesn't apply to Ukraine, which was written off immediately by many, for the lack of economy of force. But it's still there for a reason and part of that reason is that it's on par or superior to Russia in many aspects of technology, and understanding how to apply technology.
It's why Russia in essence no longer has a Black Sea fleet. Ukrainian drone technology.
posted by UN at 10:13 AM on March 31
I agree that, to the extent semi-autonomous systems are now much cheaper and lighter, such that they don't require a cruise missile as a vehicle, that trickling down to drones is likely. If adding an iphone to a drone gives it visual lock-on, okay, that's another cheap and deadly hack.
The war zone could become a killing field of vast aerial armadas raining down on everything within 20 kilometers of the front line.
But we already do this with artillery and glide bombs, or at least the Russians do for the moment. And what we haven't seen yet, but I think we're likely to see, is anti-drone drones, which is where various semi-autonomous tech seems most likely to appear--far easier to lock onto a skyborne target than distinguish a bunker in the ground.
There's definitely a new arms race here, but I see nothing magical that's going to suddenly tip the scales heavily in one direction. Perhaps what I'm reacting to is the scent of "AI WILL CHANGE EVERYTHING" that we've been marinating in for the last few years.
posted by fatbird at 11:19 AM on March 31 [1 favorite]
The war zone could become a killing field of vast aerial armadas raining down on everything within 20 kilometers of the front line.
But we already do this with artillery and glide bombs, or at least the Russians do for the moment. And what we haven't seen yet, but I think we're likely to see, is anti-drone drones, which is where various semi-autonomous tech seems most likely to appear--far easier to lock onto a skyborne target than distinguish a bunker in the ground.
There's definitely a new arms race here, but I see nothing magical that's going to suddenly tip the scales heavily in one direction. Perhaps what I'm reacting to is the scent of "AI WILL CHANGE EVERYTHING" that we've been marinating in for the last few years.
posted by fatbird at 11:19 AM on March 31 [1 favorite]
I don't think it's so much the "AI" of it that'll make this new weapon as terrifying as it is.... It's the price. Glide bombs and cruise missiles are expensive and are pretty much available to Very Large Militaries in limited numbers.
Semi-autonomous drones could be where AI finds itself a use case that actually "works". Kind of like Chinese surveillance tracking every person on a street. Now replace people with soldiers (or civilians, if this is available to Putin soon)... Now attach a bomb to that. Instead of soldiers, they can aim at a tank, ship, whatever. It can seek any moving object for that matter. We're talking about hundreds of thousands of small cruise missiles.
Send one into an area and let it do its thing.
Drones are small and fast. Cameras and smartphones have a limited resolution, I don't think they'll be easy to seek and destroy with available cheap methods. Yet.
posted by UN at 12:07 PM on March 31
Semi-autonomous drones could be where AI finds itself a use case that actually "works". Kind of like Chinese surveillance tracking every person on a street. Now replace people with soldiers (or civilians, if this is available to Putin soon)... Now attach a bomb to that. Instead of soldiers, they can aim at a tank, ship, whatever. It can seek any moving object for that matter. We're talking about hundreds of thousands of small cruise missiles.
Send one into an area and let it do its thing.
Drones are small and fast. Cameras and smartphones have a limited resolution, I don't think they'll be easy to seek and destroy with available cheap methods. Yet.
posted by UN at 12:07 PM on March 31
And what we haven't seen yet, but I think we're likely to see, is anti-drone drones
Funny you mention, I saw just this week videos of russian anti-drone drones with nets in testing and generic fpv drones hitting ukrainian baba yaga heavies in action. The tempo of the arms race is unreal, and the western write-ups are usually lagging one months at least.
I saw at least a month ago jubilant ukrainian posts celebrating a Lancet using AI targeting missing an air defence autocannon because of the smoke of the guns engaging the drone itself.
posted by kmt at 12:31 PM on March 31 [1 favorite]
Funny you mention, I saw just this week videos of russian anti-drone drones with nets in testing and generic fpv drones hitting ukrainian baba yaga heavies in action. The tempo of the arms race is unreal, and the western write-ups are usually lagging one months at least.
I saw at least a month ago jubilant ukrainian posts celebrating a Lancet using AI targeting missing an air defence autocannon because of the smoke of the guns engaging the drone itself.
posted by kmt at 12:31 PM on March 31 [1 favorite]
Hackers stole Russian prisoner database to avenge death of Navalny.
Also, this gem:
posted by lock robster at 11:21 AM on April 1 [4 favorites]
Also, this gem:
In addition, the hackers used their access to the Russian prison system’s online commissary, where family members buy food for inmates, to change the prices of things like noodles and canned beef to one ruble, which is roughly $0.01, according to screenshots and videos of purchases from the online store posted by the hackers.Chef's kiss.
posted by lock robster at 11:21 AM on April 1 [4 favorites]
Prototypes of AI drones may appear on battlefield before year-end [Ukraine's Minister of Digital Transformation, Mykhailo Fedorov, said this in an interview with the German news outlet Welt, Ukrinform reports.]
And on that note:
Kyiv Confirms Ukrainian Drones Hit Drone Plant in Tatarstan – 1, 265 Kilometers Away
He said that Ukraine was completing the first important step in the application of artificial intelligence in unmanned aerial vehicles. The issue concerns the promotion of companies that develop systems able to capture a target and direct drones at it.
"Now this technology is at the testing stage. Technologically, I do not see any problem here. It can be solved quickly. The next step is drone communication. Drones form swarms to engage enemy vehicles. But to fulfill this task, it is first necessary to solve the previous tasks: radio frequency planning, target instruction, etc.," Fedorov said, expressing hope that the prototypes could appear on the battlefield by the end of the year, but not in large quantities.
In general, drones are already partially replacing artillery. Compared to last year, Ukraine increased the production of long-range drones tenfold. Most drones in use have a range of 700 to 1,000 kilometers, Fedorov said.
"But now there are models that can fly more than 1,000 kilometers," Fedorov said.
And on that note:
Kyiv Confirms Ukrainian Drones Hit Drone Plant in Tatarstan – 1, 265 Kilometers Away
Kyiv Post's sources from Ukraine's Military Intelligence Directorate (HUR) confirmed that Ukraine had targeted a drone assembly facility in Yelabuga, Tatarstan, more than 1,200 kilometers (745 miles) from Ukraine.posted by UN at 2:46 AM on April 2 [1 favorite]
The source said that this was a special operation of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry (HUR) and that the strike caused significant damage to drone production facilities.
According to CNN, the drones striking deep into Russia are indeed using computer vision to hit their targets.
posted by UN at 11:08 AM on April 2
posted by UN at 11:08 AM on April 2
US urged Ukraine to halt strikes on Russian oil refineries
Also fun ideas in Ukrainian Drone Strikes Hit Russia's Oil Revenues
posted by jeffburdges at 3:45 AM on April 3 [1 favorite]
Also fun ideas in Ukrainian Drone Strikes Hit Russia's Oil Revenues
posted by jeffburdges at 3:45 AM on April 3 [1 favorite]
If you haven't already, read this article on Israel using a homegrown AI system for processing surveillance and producing targeting lists, which were then used indiscriminately and without real human review. In conjunction with an internally stated policy allowing for 15-20 civilian casualties to kill even one low level Hamas member (and 100 for a brigade commander), civilian casualties have gone through the roof in Gaza because, in part, AI removed "the human bottleneck" in targeting.
This is an almost perfect example of my misgivings about AI and the risks it poses. It's not autonomous hunter killers making cold blooded decisions. It's AI as an amplifying tool (and moral escape hatch) for human excess, carelessness, and depravity. As a software dev, I'm overly familiar with the cycle of new tools, hype, and disappointment following indiscriminate use, leaving behind a mess to clean up with the next tool. In Gaza, that mess is at least 30,000 dead civilians, not because of what the AI did, but because of how people used it--and also how the fact that it was "AI" became a self-justifying reason for delegating moral culpability.
In Ukraine's case, it's not obvious how AI benefits them significantly because the magical properties of AI aren't available, and the amplifying effects aren't particularly helpful strategically.
posted by fatbird at 9:09 PM on April 3 [3 favorites]
This is an almost perfect example of my misgivings about AI and the risks it poses. It's not autonomous hunter killers making cold blooded decisions. It's AI as an amplifying tool (and moral escape hatch) for human excess, carelessness, and depravity. As a software dev, I'm overly familiar with the cycle of new tools, hype, and disappointment following indiscriminate use, leaving behind a mess to clean up with the next tool. In Gaza, that mess is at least 30,000 dead civilians, not because of what the AI did, but because of how people used it--and also how the fact that it was "AI" became a self-justifying reason for delegating moral culpability.
In Ukraine's case, it's not obvious how AI benefits them significantly because the magical properties of AI aren't available, and the amplifying effects aren't particularly helpful strategically.
posted by fatbird at 9:09 PM on April 3 [3 favorites]
recently posted to my Mastodon stream:
there's something real fucking dark about how AI is too inaccurate for tracking people around a grocery store so they have humans to make sure every last item is paid for, whereas if your AI is generating targets for a genocide then a serious error rate is perfectly within acceptable parameters.
posted by hippybear at 9:17 PM on April 3 [3 favorites]
there's something real fucking dark about how AI is too inaccurate for tracking people around a grocery store so they have humans to make sure every last item is paid for, whereas if your AI is generating targets for a genocide then a serious error rate is perfectly within acceptable parameters.
posted by hippybear at 9:17 PM on April 3 [3 favorites]
Gaza aid worker deaths heighten scrutiny of Israel’s use of AI to select targets
posted by elkevelvet at 6:58 AM on April 4 [2 favorites]
posted by elkevelvet at 6:58 AM on April 4 [2 favorites]
if your AI is generating targets for a genocide then a serious error rate is perfectly within acceptable parameters.
That's because the AI is defacto merely prioritizing targets rather than selecting them. Any errors are just of time rather than intent. Israel wants all Palestinians out of Gaza by whatever means are available and doesn't really care the order that happens in. Essentially the error rate is zero because in the long view there are no incorrect targets and the AI is just providing a fig leaf to obscure the objective from criticism.
posted by Mitheral at 10:07 AM on April 4 [2 favorites]
That's because the AI is defacto merely prioritizing targets rather than selecting them. Any errors are just of time rather than intent. Israel wants all Palestinians out of Gaza by whatever means are available and doesn't really care the order that happens in. Essentially the error rate is zero because in the long view there are no incorrect targets and the AI is just providing a fig leaf to obscure the objective from criticism.
posted by Mitheral at 10:07 AM on April 4 [2 favorites]
In Ukraine's case, it's not obvious how AI benefits them significantly because the magical properties of AI aren't available, and the amplifying effects aren't particularly helpful strategically.
My understanding* is that Ukraine's issue is electronic warfare. Video and control signals get scrambled as they approach targets, GPS signals get spoofed, etc. For the drones, its not about having them 'understand' what's happening on the battlefield. It's likely much more pragmatic: a relatively cheap way to get to a take the drone to a target, which may possibly be chosen by the drone pilot prior to radio signals getting jammed. Basically, I'm guessing, they want, once the target is visible to the camera, a drone to be able to aim itself at it without outside signals if necessary. Better than the drone pilot seeing snow on their monitor.
* Worked around machine vision and telecommunication research, but not in the weapons industry or any flying things in general.
posted by UN at 11:44 AM on April 6 [1 favorite]
My understanding* is that Ukraine's issue is electronic warfare. Video and control signals get scrambled as they approach targets, GPS signals get spoofed, etc. For the drones, its not about having them 'understand' what's happening on the battlefield. It's likely much more pragmatic: a relatively cheap way to get to a take the drone to a target, which may possibly be chosen by the drone pilot prior to radio signals getting jammed. Basically, I'm guessing, they want, once the target is visible to the camera, a drone to be able to aim itself at it without outside signals if necessary. Better than the drone pilot seeing snow on their monitor.
* Worked around machine vision and telecommunication research, but not in the weapons industry or any flying things in general.
posted by UN at 11:44 AM on April 6 [1 favorite]
Collaborative combat aircraft
"Unlike the conventional UCAVs, the CCA incorporates artificial intelligence (AI), denoted an "autonomy package", increasing its survivability on the battlefield"
Skyborg.
posted by clavdivs at 2:18 PM on April 6
"Unlike the conventional UCAVs, the CCA incorporates artificial intelligence (AI), denoted an "autonomy package", increasing its survivability on the battlefield"
Skyborg.
posted by clavdivs at 2:18 PM on April 6
Re drone on drone warfare: Interceptors And Escorts: Drone Tactics In Ukraine Are Evolving Fast (Forbes):
Tactics are evolving constantly. Now the Russians have started to intercept Baba Yagas, the Ukrainians are giving their bombers fighter escorts. This Ukrainian video appears to show a Ukrainian quadcopter covering a Baba Yaga and taking out the Russian drone attempting to intercept it, suggesting that drone tactics are already looking more like WWII than WW1.posted by kmt at 2:49 AM on April 17 [1 favorite]
Sam Bendett mentions Russian reports of Baba Yagas being seen in pairs with a group of FPVs as escort. The escorts are continually refreshed as batteries run low and FPVs return to a battery swap and are replaced by others. The FPVs can act as close-up scouts or attack ground targets as well as providing a defensive screen against enemy drones.
With an overwhelming vote, the House passes $61 billion in aid for Ukraine.
posted by 1970s Antihero at 6:49 PM on April 20 [6 favorites]
posted by 1970s Antihero at 6:49 PM on April 20 [6 favorites]
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