Hey voter voter voter voter... SWING!
April 11, 2024 8:51 AM Subscribe
See how demographic swings could impact the 2024 election: 538's new Swing-O-Matic shows which states could flip under different scenarios. [ABC News]. 538's Swing-O-Matic page gets interactive under the bold headline Create your own scenario with a bunch of sliders you can push back and forth to see how minor demographic shifts might have major implications for the 2024 US Presidential election.
If you want nightmare fuel, "Shift All Voters +1 R" flips Arizona, Wisconsin and Georgia, leading to a 272 - 266 Trump victory, though he gets only 47% of the popular vote.
posted by Orange Pamplemousse at 9:32 AM on April 11 [5 favorites]
posted by Orange Pamplemousse at 9:32 AM on April 11 [5 favorites]
The fact that Trump is still any sort of viable candidate for the Presidency of the United States is enough nightmare fuel on its own.
posted by The Card Cheat at 9:44 AM on April 11 [74 favorites]
posted by The Card Cheat at 9:44 AM on April 11 [74 favorites]
I think in our hearts we all know who is going to win.
posted by Czjewel at 9:45 AM on April 11 [2 favorites]
posted by Czjewel at 9:45 AM on April 11 [2 favorites]
Does this allow for excluding Biden from Ohio and Alabama?
posted by 922257033c4a0f3cecdbd819a46d626999d1af4a at 9:48 AM on April 11
posted by 922257033c4a0f3cecdbd819a46d626999d1af4a at 9:48 AM on April 11
Endless fun and horror for everyone.
Polls and data derived from polls are pretty much worthless for guessing how the election is going to go. My preferred method would be observing special elections, which seem to indicated the republicans are going to be fucking annihilated.
But still, the dread.
posted by Artw at 9:49 AM on April 11 [22 favorites]
Polls and data derived from polls are pretty much worthless for guessing how the election is going to go. My preferred method would be observing special elections, which seem to indicated the republicans are going to be fucking annihilated.
But still, the dread.
posted by Artw at 9:49 AM on April 11 [22 favorites]
I think in our hearts we all know who is going to win.
Yep. There's no way we move off the current trajectory without things getting much, much worse.
posted by ryanshepard at 9:57 AM on April 11
Yep. There's no way we move off the current trajectory without things getting much, much worse.
posted by ryanshepard at 9:57 AM on April 11
I think in our hearts we all know who is going to win.
Categorically no. To me this feels like a coin toss that will be decided at the margins by voter response to events that have yet to take place, so in my heart I, for one, do not know who is going to win. Biden wins if he holds GA and AZ, Trump wins if not. The Republicans are doing their best to hand swing states to Biden, Netanyahu is doing his best to elect Donald Trump, this year's James Comey has yet to be unveiled, which octogenarian candidate suffers a catastrophic trip-and-fall remains obscure, tucked away in an unknown corner of the future, let us not despair quite so soon. Let us instead find the local issue or the swing state candidate who will drive blue votes, and work hard for those things. Is there a living wage measure on your ballot in your county? A weed legalization referendum somewhere that matters? An exciting or even just plain uninspiring Dem who can win somewhere purple?
This race is possibly going to be decided by fewer than 100k votes in one of half a dozen states. Despair is for blowouts. The hard but reasonably enjoyable work of civic engagement is for the narrow margin years.
[begs pardon, ends condescending lecture]
posted by kensington314 at 10:10 AM on April 11 [86 favorites]
Categorically no. To me this feels like a coin toss that will be decided at the margins by voter response to events that have yet to take place, so in my heart I, for one, do not know who is going to win. Biden wins if he holds GA and AZ, Trump wins if not. The Republicans are doing their best to hand swing states to Biden, Netanyahu is doing his best to elect Donald Trump, this year's James Comey has yet to be unveiled, which octogenarian candidate suffers a catastrophic trip-and-fall remains obscure, tucked away in an unknown corner of the future, let us not despair quite so soon. Let us instead find the local issue or the swing state candidate who will drive blue votes, and work hard for those things. Is there a living wage measure on your ballot in your county? A weed legalization referendum somewhere that matters? An exciting or even just plain uninspiring Dem who can win somewhere purple?
This race is possibly going to be decided by fewer than 100k votes in one of half a dozen states. Despair is for blowouts. The hard but reasonably enjoyable work of civic engagement is for the narrow margin years.
[begs pardon, ends condescending lecture]
posted by kensington314 at 10:10 AM on April 11 [86 favorites]
Biden wins if he holds GA and AZ, Trump wins if not
Couldn't he theoretically lose these states and still win provided he keeps MI, WI, and PA as blue-locked as they have been pretty much every election with the exception of 2016?
posted by windbox at 10:18 AM on April 11 [3 favorites]
Couldn't he theoretically lose these states and still win provided he keeps MI, WI, and PA as blue-locked as they have been pretty much every election with the exception of 2016?
posted by windbox at 10:18 AM on April 11 [3 favorites]
Yes sorry, I just meant like whatever cascades from that GA/AZ scenario looks bad, but I'm fond of Wisconsin so I accept your corrective.
posted by kensington314 at 10:22 AM on April 11
posted by kensington314 at 10:22 AM on April 11
My preferred method would be observing special elections, which seem to indicated the republicans are going to be fucking annihilated
The problem with using special elections to predict future outcomes is they’re inherently different from regular elections. They almost always have lower turnout and the types of voters who tend to turn out for special elections disproportionately favor Democrats (a change from ten or so years ago, when Republicans were the beneficiaries of low-turnout elections). The electorate that turns out in November will not look like the one that has turned out in recent special elections.
That being said my read on these special elections is that they’re cause for cautious optimism for Democrats, a reason not to despair over the polls. For one, to state the obvious, Democrats could be losing or underperforming in these elections. They’re not. That’s a good sign. And for another, recent special elections have tended to confirm that Republicans’ (and in particular Trump’s) critical weakness among suburban voters, particularly women, is still a problem, and that’s key to a prospective Democratic victory this year. So I don’t think the special elections presage the annihilation of the Republican Party, but I do think they tell us that Republicans are still struggling with the types of voters who have driven their losses since 2018, and they tell us what kind of messaging has and hasn’t been successful.
More relevant to the OP: another sign for cautious optimism is that Biden has been improving his polling numbers among voters 50 years and up. Shift those older voters just a couple of points towards Biden in the 538 tool and see what a difference that makes. Pretty dispiriting that young voters are showing every sign of being even more disengaged than usual in this upcoming election, but the fact is, those older voters are key— cut into Republicans’ lead with them just 2-4 percent and we go from knife’s edge to borderline landslide territory (not that I think this will happen— not with the likelihood that other demographics will shift a little away from Biden at the same time).
posted by Method Man at 10:56 AM on April 11 [5 favorites]
The problem with using special elections to predict future outcomes is they’re inherently different from regular elections. They almost always have lower turnout and the types of voters who tend to turn out for special elections disproportionately favor Democrats (a change from ten or so years ago, when Republicans were the beneficiaries of low-turnout elections). The electorate that turns out in November will not look like the one that has turned out in recent special elections.
That being said my read on these special elections is that they’re cause for cautious optimism for Democrats, a reason not to despair over the polls. For one, to state the obvious, Democrats could be losing or underperforming in these elections. They’re not. That’s a good sign. And for another, recent special elections have tended to confirm that Republicans’ (and in particular Trump’s) critical weakness among suburban voters, particularly women, is still a problem, and that’s key to a prospective Democratic victory this year. So I don’t think the special elections presage the annihilation of the Republican Party, but I do think they tell us that Republicans are still struggling with the types of voters who have driven their losses since 2018, and they tell us what kind of messaging has and hasn’t been successful.
More relevant to the OP: another sign for cautious optimism is that Biden has been improving his polling numbers among voters 50 years and up. Shift those older voters just a couple of points towards Biden in the 538 tool and see what a difference that makes. Pretty dispiriting that young voters are showing every sign of being even more disengaged than usual in this upcoming election, but the fact is, those older voters are key— cut into Republicans’ lead with them just 2-4 percent and we go from knife’s edge to borderline landslide territory (not that I think this will happen— not with the likelihood that other demographics will shift a little away from Biden at the same time).
posted by Method Man at 10:56 AM on April 11 [5 favorites]
Arizona’s new abortion ban is likely to energize voters who demand reproductive freedom as it has in many other recent elections. Never get cocky, but it’s likely to make AZ less swingy, not more.
posted by rikschell at 11:08 AM on April 11 [11 favorites]
posted by rikschell at 11:08 AM on April 11 [11 favorites]
If Biden wins PA, MI, WI, but Trump wins GA, AZ, NV, and Trump wins Maine's 2nd district and Nebraska's 2nd district.....you get the dreaded 269 to 269 tie, which would throw the election to the House of Representatives.
(I'm still morbidly fascinated by this scenario, but I've commented on it before, so I'll just mention it this time.)
posted by gimonca at 11:22 AM on April 11 [3 favorites]
(I'm still morbidly fascinated by this scenario, but I've commented on it before, so I'll just mention it this time.)
posted by gimonca at 11:22 AM on April 11 [3 favorites]
…this feels like a coin toss that will be decided at the margins by voter response to events that have yet to take place, so in my heart I, for one, do not know who is going to win.
Apart from the insane ambivalence of the average person, I'm scared by the fact that corporate media and social media engagement is driven by close races. Whatever events take place, they'll be spun to make the race a nail-biter.
posted by brachiopod at 12:20 PM on April 11 [11 favorites]
Apart from the insane ambivalence of the average person, I'm scared by the fact that corporate media and social media engagement is driven by close races. Whatever events take place, they'll be spun to make the race a nail-biter.
posted by brachiopod at 12:20 PM on April 11 [11 favorites]
Even just reading posts like this leaves my stomach in a knot. It’s like waiting to hear if your cancer is back or not.
posted by gottabefunky at 12:32 PM on April 11 [39 favorites]
posted by gottabefunky at 12:32 PM on April 11 [39 favorites]
America just cannot wait to shoot itself in the genitals again.
[world's longest sigh]
posted by DirtyOldTown at 12:47 PM on April 11 [10 favorites]
[world's longest sigh]
posted by DirtyOldTown at 12:47 PM on April 11 [10 favorites]
There is not a single reason why anyone who was not 100% in the bag for Trump in previous elections should feel moved to vote FOR him now. He is driving the RNC's fundraising efforts into the ground like a tent stake (not just for his own campaign but all over the country), he is hemorrhaging his own money left and right, he remains in legal jeopardy (however narrowly), and an awful lot of women have been made extremely aware this time around that they actively have skin in the game.
That said, there are months and months to go before anything gets counted, and anything can happen in that period. No complacency. No trusting polls, good or bad. Go, and persevere.
posted by delfin at 1:01 PM on April 11 [4 favorites]
That said, there are months and months to go before anything gets counted, and anything can happen in that period. No complacency. No trusting polls, good or bad. Go, and persevere.
posted by delfin at 1:01 PM on April 11 [4 favorites]
There is not a single reason why anyone who was not 100% in the bag for Trump in previous elections should feel moved to vote FOR him now.
Yes, logically, there is no reason for a person with even an average understanding of the current state of the US, who has even a vague understanding of the issues behind 2024 American politics, who pays even a cursory amount of attention to the news to even consider voting for him.
The thing is: when you're describing the kind of person who could fail to clear all/any of those low bars, you are describing a swing voter in the US presidential election.
I do agree anything can happen though. So... fate willing.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 1:06 PM on April 11 [9 favorites]
Yes, logically, there is no reason for a person with even an average understanding of the current state of the US, who has even a vague understanding of the issues behind 2024 American politics, who pays even a cursory amount of attention to the news to even consider voting for him.
The thing is: when you're describing the kind of person who could fail to clear all/any of those low bars, you are describing a swing voter in the US presidential election.
I do agree anything can happen though. So... fate willing.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 1:06 PM on April 11 [9 favorites]
I did go to a volunteer orientation for the local Democratic Party here and am planning to get involved in a personal way that I never have before. I'm scared to death about this election, and want to push any sliders toward the Ds that I can.
posted by hippybear at 1:08 PM on April 11 [9 favorites]
posted by hippybear at 1:08 PM on April 11 [9 favorites]
At the same time, I believe it was Molly Ivins who wrote in the wake of Gore-Bush (might've been quoting someone else at the time) that if we had truly reached a point as a nation where any single election victory by the Forces of Evil could undo everything, we were already screwed beyond repair.
Her point was twofold -- one, that it was very unlikely that America could reach that point of no return, which may have been proven to be overoptimistic by half. And two, that sooner or later the Forces of Evil WOULD win a big election, just by sheer attrition, so it was up to all of us as decent folk to dig in, fight hard and make sure that that next victory WON'T undo everything.
Won't be easy... but it never is, and it probably shouldn't be.
posted by delfin at 1:13 PM on April 11 [7 favorites]
Her point was twofold -- one, that it was very unlikely that America could reach that point of no return, which may have been proven to be overoptimistic by half. And two, that sooner or later the Forces of Evil WOULD win a big election, just by sheer attrition, so it was up to all of us as decent folk to dig in, fight hard and make sure that that next victory WON'T undo everything.
Won't be easy... but it never is, and it probably shouldn't be.
posted by delfin at 1:13 PM on April 11 [7 favorites]
I did go to a volunteer orientation for the local Democratic Party here and am planning to get involved in a personal way that I never have before. I'm scared to death about this election, and want to push any sliders toward the Ds that I can.
that's great!
posted by kensington314 at 1:22 PM on April 11 [2 favorites]
that's great!
posted by kensington314 at 1:22 PM on April 11 [2 favorites]
but I'm fond of Wisconsin
tell us you like cheese without telling us you like cheese
posted by elkevelvet at 1:22 PM on April 11 [6 favorites]
tell us you like cheese without telling us you like cheese
posted by elkevelvet at 1:22 PM on April 11 [6 favorites]
Call me optimistic, but I think the Florida abortion initiative is going to flip Florida.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 1:44 PM on April 11 [2 favorites]
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 1:44 PM on April 11 [2 favorites]
Call me optimistic, but I think the Florida abortion initiative is going to flip Florida.
It's a wild situation, for sure.
Florida Republicans now have a registration advantage over Dems of several hundred thousand and by all recent accounts the state's Democratic Party is in no position to receive and utilize the gift that the FL legislature and courts gave them. But still. I'm also adding this to my cautious optimism list.
posted by kensington314 at 1:52 PM on April 11 [3 favorites]
Well, and now Arizona is suddenly in play when previously it hadn't really been.
posted by hippybear at 1:53 PM on April 11 [2 favorites]
posted by hippybear at 1:53 PM on April 11 [2 favorites]
The fact that Trump is still any sort of viable candidate for the Presidency of the United States is enough nightmare fuel on its own. sufficient proof that the US wants fascism, it just hasn't figured out how to pull it off yet. Maybe this year.
posted by tclark at 1:54 PM on April 11 [5 favorites]
posted by tclark at 1:54 PM on April 11 [5 favorites]
I can understand why there are young double-haters who hope that voting for a third party candidate as a protest vote will generate some positive movement from the Dems. It's self-defeating, ignorant and saddening on a lot of levels, but the sheer hopelessness of the Dems always losing ground is hard for young people who are fighting for progress. I kind of like Biden, but I was still kind of disappointed when the machine rallied around him last primary go around. It felt like a loss after Obama, comparatively, and like we lost or foreclosed some future opportunities by discouraging youthful and more progressive dems.
posted by BrotherCaine at 1:57 PM on April 11 [2 favorites]
posted by BrotherCaine at 1:57 PM on April 11 [2 favorites]
Well, and now Arizona is suddenly in play when previously it hadn't really been.
Though it did previously go for Biden, if by a hair.
posted by kensington314 at 2:00 PM on April 11
Though it did previously go for Biden, if by a hair.
posted by kensington314 at 2:00 PM on April 11
Yeah, but this new situation could really push the state in a way that it wouldn't have been pushed earlier.
posted by hippybear at 2:03 PM on April 11 [2 favorites]
posted by hippybear at 2:03 PM on April 11 [2 favorites]
Biden wins if he holds GA and AZ, Trump wins if not
Anybody that’s been watching what’s happening in Georgia without a peep right now should not hold out a lot of hope for a Biden victory, is all I’m saying.
posted by corb at 2:27 PM on April 11 [5 favorites]
Anybody that’s been watching what’s happening in Georgia without a peep right now should not hold out a lot of hope for a Biden victory, is all I’m saying.
posted by corb at 2:27 PM on April 11 [5 favorites]
I think in our hearts we all know who is going to win.
Only if you sit on your thumbs in November and don't turn-out.
posted by Thorzdad at 2:36 PM on April 11 [3 favorites]
Only if you sit on your thumbs in November and don't turn-out.
posted by Thorzdad at 2:36 PM on April 11 [3 favorites]
I think in our hearts we all know who is going to win.
By this do you mean, "Everyone thinks they know who's going to win?"
Because nobody actually knows.
Of course, reading that statement in the context of MeFI's general left-leaning doomerism, I interpret it as a fatalistic assertion that Trump will win.
But anybody who thinks that way needs to seriously reconsider their assumptions, and their information sources. The outcome in November is impossible to predict, but from what I can see, Biden has a very strong chance of winning.
Remember that much of the media and commentariat spent almost 2 years predicting a complete Dem wipeout in 2022. But the feared "red wave" never materialized.
Yet it seemed that the news outlets and pundits who called that one wrong then immediately pivoted to forecasting a Biden loss in 2024. And they haven't let up.
Their pessimism is no more rational in this election cycle than it was in the last one.
At some point it's good to recognize when doom and gloom about politics is a clickbait strategy to keep anxious liberals and lefties on the hook... and to regulate one's media diet accordingly.
posted by Artifice_Eternity at 2:55 PM on April 11 [12 favorites]
By this do you mean, "Everyone thinks they know who's going to win?"
Because nobody actually knows.
Of course, reading that statement in the context of MeFI's general left-leaning doomerism, I interpret it as a fatalistic assertion that Trump will win.
But anybody who thinks that way needs to seriously reconsider their assumptions, and their information sources. The outcome in November is impossible to predict, but from what I can see, Biden has a very strong chance of winning.
Remember that much of the media and commentariat spent almost 2 years predicting a complete Dem wipeout in 2022. But the feared "red wave" never materialized.
Yet it seemed that the news outlets and pundits who called that one wrong then immediately pivoted to forecasting a Biden loss in 2024. And they haven't let up.
Their pessimism is no more rational in this election cycle than it was in the last one.
At some point it's good to recognize when doom and gloom about politics is a clickbait strategy to keep anxious liberals and lefties on the hook... and to regulate one's media diet accordingly.
posted by Artifice_Eternity at 2:55 PM on April 11 [12 favorites]
by all recent accounts the state's Democratic Party is in no position to receive and utilize the gift that the FL legislature and courts gave them.
It certainly wouldn’t be like the Dems to fuck up a race by not running in it.
posted by Artw at 4:04 PM on April 11 [4 favorites]
It certainly wouldn’t be like the Dems to fuck up a race by not running in it.
posted by Artw at 4:04 PM on April 11 [4 favorites]
Anybody that’s been watching what’s happening in Georgia without a peep right now should not hold out a lot of hope for a Biden victory, is all I’m saying.
What is happening in Georgia?
posted by Artw at 4:06 PM on April 11
What is happening in Georgia?
posted by Artw at 4:06 PM on April 11
There is not a single reason why anyone who was not 100% in the bag for Trump in previous elections should feel moved to vote FOR him now.
The main thing he seems to have moved to his side are billionaires and large corporations who were previously keeping him at arms length and are now full on hugging him.
posted by Artw at 4:09 PM on April 11 [3 favorites]
The main thing he seems to have moved to his side are billionaires and large corporations who were previously keeping him at arms length and are now full on hugging him.
posted by Artw at 4:09 PM on April 11 [3 favorites]
There is not a single reason why anyone who was not 100% in the bag for Trump in previous elections should feel moved to vote FOR him now.
Israel. You’re going to see a lot of Jewish people abandon the Democratic Party, given how we’ve been treated by the Left. There’s a palpable feeling out there of betrayal by groups whose freedom we supported, now championing the annihilation of Israel. I’m not saying I’m going to vote for Trump, but you’re going to see a dramatic shift there…
posted by ph00dz at 4:45 PM on April 11
Israel. You’re going to see a lot of Jewish people abandon the Democratic Party, given how we’ve been treated by the Left. There’s a palpable feeling out there of betrayal by groups whose freedom we supported, now championing the annihilation of Israel. I’m not saying I’m going to vote for Trump, but you’re going to see a dramatic shift there…
posted by ph00dz at 4:45 PM on April 11
If I didn’t hate the Republican party before all of this, their fucking cowardice in allowing that man to even be a nominee would certainly cement it. Fucking traitorous scum.
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 4:47 PM on April 11 [6 favorites]
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 4:47 PM on April 11 [6 favorites]
Israel. You’re going to see a lot of Jewish people abandon the Democratic Party, given how we’ve been treated by the Left. There’s a palpable feeling out there of betrayal by groups whose freedom we supported, now championing the annihilation of Israel. I’m not saying I’m going to vote for Trump, but you’re going to see a dramatic shift there…
Even though Biden has supported Israel all this time (at the cost of many of his voters).
Sure.. makes perfect sense.
posted by Liquidwolf at 4:49 PM on April 11 [17 favorites]
Even though Biden has supported Israel all this time (at the cost of many of his voters).
Sure.. makes perfect sense.
posted by Liquidwolf at 4:49 PM on April 11 [17 favorites]
That condescension sums it up perfectly Liquidwolf. Thanks.
posted by ph00dz at 4:53 PM on April 11 [1 favorite]
posted by ph00dz at 4:53 PM on April 11 [1 favorite]
So far I've seen predictions that Biden will lose votes by being both too pro-Israel and (apparently?) too anti-Israel simultaneously. Schroedinger's Policy I guess.
posted by Justinian at 4:57 PM on April 11 [17 favorites]
posted by Justinian at 4:57 PM on April 11 [17 favorites]
That condescension sums it up perfectly Liquidwolf. Thanks.
Sorry just to clarify , I wasn't saying you're necessarily wrong about that. I was saying that's a foolish reason to "abandon the Democratic Party". Especially considering the alternative.
posted by Liquidwolf at 4:58 PM on April 11 [8 favorites]
Sorry just to clarify , I wasn't saying you're necessarily wrong about that. I was saying that's a foolish reason to "abandon the Democratic Party". Especially considering the alternative.
posted by Liquidwolf at 4:58 PM on April 11 [8 favorites]
Sorry. Fair enough LiquidWolf. I agree, but I also understand where people are coming from... there's a lot of bitterness out there and I think, Biden aside, a lot of Jewish people wonder where they fit into today's Democratic party
posted by ph00dz at 4:58 PM on April 11
posted by ph00dz at 4:58 PM on April 11
immediately pivoted to forecasting a Biden loss in 2024. And they haven't let up.
It's my hope that the 'liberal media' learned its lesson in 2016 and isn't going to let up on predicting a Biden loss until Election Day - hence, motivating Biden voters to 'vote harder' (or actually, just to vote) in order to secure a win, rather than passively standing by.
posted by Rash at 5:07 PM on April 11
It's my hope that the 'liberal media' learned its lesson in 2016 and isn't going to let up on predicting a Biden loss until Election Day - hence, motivating Biden voters to 'vote harder' (or actually, just to vote) in order to secure a win, rather than passively standing by.
posted by Rash at 5:07 PM on April 11
there's a lot of bitterness out there and I think, Biden aside, a lot of Jewish people wonder where they fit into today's Democratic party
Yes, I hear what you're saying. I can imagine so.
posted by Liquidwolf at 5:08 PM on April 11
Yes, I hear what you're saying. I can imagine so.
posted by Liquidwolf at 5:08 PM on April 11
TBH if Biden deviating 1% from 100% backing of genocide does that I suspect they are already Trump voters.
posted by Artw at 5:11 PM on April 11 [17 favorites]
posted by Artw at 5:11 PM on April 11 [17 favorites]
My personal assumption is that Biden will win, but the Republicans will simply do everything they can, up to and including violence, to make sure Trump is installed, election results be damned.
posted by briank at 5:12 PM on April 11 [2 favorites]
posted by briank at 5:12 PM on April 11 [2 favorites]
Virtually the same trepidations prior to 2020 elections. Biden way behind in the polls
Virtually the same trepidations prior to 2022 elections. Polls predict a big red wave. Polls wrong in all red and 'battleground' states.
We fear what the future may hold so crystal ball polls predicting the future are too seductive to ignore. Despite the fact no one takes unrecognized callers anymore.
Just turn off your targeting computers.
posted by Fupped Duck at 5:27 PM on April 11 [5 favorites]
Virtually the same trepidations prior to 2022 elections. Polls predict a big red wave. Polls wrong in all red and 'battleground' states.
We fear what the future may hold so crystal ball polls predicting the future are too seductive to ignore. Despite the fact no one takes unrecognized callers anymore.
Just turn off your targeting computers.
posted by Fupped Duck at 5:27 PM on April 11 [5 favorites]
I believe polls now lean lightly Biden. I still don’t trust them.
posted by Artw at 5:29 PM on April 11 [4 favorites]
posted by Artw at 5:29 PM on April 11 [4 favorites]
Israel. You’re going to see a lot of Jewish people abandon the Democratic Party, given how we’ve been treated by the Left. There’s a palpable feeling out there of betrayal by groups whose freedom we supported, now championing the annihilation of Israel. I’m not saying I’m going to vote for Trump, but you’re going to see a dramatic shift there…
So, the above statement, starts by conflating "a lot of jews" with zionists, and then goes on to suggest that they way this group has "treated by the left", by "groups whose freedom we supported", who are "championing the annihilation of Israel" must result in "abandoning the democratic party" (even though the latter action has nothing to do with the former three clauses in the sentence)
Couldn't make a set of falsehood by-conflations and association as promulgated by AIPAC, the ADL, Fox, etc more succinct if you tried. WELL DONE. Keep on propagandizing!
posted by lalochezia at 5:58 PM on April 11 [41 favorites]
Israel. You’re going to see a lot of Jewish people abandon the Democratic Party, given how we’ve been treated by the Left.
Most of the Jews I know are disgusted by Biden's refusal to stop supporting the mass murder in Gaza. I don't think they would like being lumped in with people who will vote Trump because he'll somehow genocide harder.
posted by The Manwich Horror at 6:04 PM on April 11 [26 favorites]
Most of the Jews I know are disgusted by Biden's refusal to stop supporting the mass murder in Gaza. I don't think they would like being lumped in with people who will vote Trump because he'll somehow genocide harder.
posted by The Manwich Horror at 6:04 PM on April 11 [26 favorites]
no - I suggested your analysis is disingenuous at best. If people say "I'm stopping supporting something because of X" when X didn't happen the way they say it did, and further, the way that X was described supports right-wing propaganda, then you will be called out on it.
if you want to try and spin this as "condescension", go right ahead.
posted by lalochezia at 6:15 PM on April 11 [26 favorites]
if you want to try and spin this as "condescension", go right ahead.
posted by lalochezia at 6:15 PM on April 11 [26 favorites]
It's my hope that the 'liberal media' learned its lesson in 2016 and isn't going to let up on predicting a Biden loss until Election Day - hence, motivating Biden voters to 'vote harder' (or actually, just to vote) in order to secure a win, rather than passively standing by.
Sometimes predicting loss just leads to fatalism, apathy, and learned helplessness.
I'd prefer that the media not make too many predictions of any kind.
posted by Artifice_Eternity at 6:52 PM on April 11 [4 favorites]
Sometimes predicting loss just leads to fatalism, apathy, and learned helplessness.
I'd prefer that the media not make too many predictions of any kind.
posted by Artifice_Eternity at 6:52 PM on April 11 [4 favorites]
If I were to sum up the position of many people I know, I would say they want Biden to take stronger action, they are horrified at the actions of Netanyahu, and at the same time, they are deeply disquieted by some of the language and sentiments used in online leftist spaces in the west.
I’ve literally seen posts like ‘I don’t care if colonizers are murdered’ and ‘everyone in Israel should be killed’ on mainstream social media. At that point I muted the keywords and swore off online discussion of this issue, but here I am again like a dumbass.
I just typed and deleted a bunch of defensive stuff because I don’t have to justify being upset by mass murder any more than anyone else does.
posted by bq at 6:55 PM on April 11 [6 favorites]
I’ve literally seen posts like ‘I don’t care if colonizers are murdered’ and ‘everyone in Israel should be killed’ on mainstream social media. At that point I muted the keywords and swore off online discussion of this issue, but here I am again like a dumbass.
I just typed and deleted a bunch of defensive stuff because I don’t have to justify being upset by mass murder any more than anyone else does.
posted by bq at 6:55 PM on April 11 [6 favorites]
"Well, I'd vote for Biden, but somebody on social media said something I don't like, so I guess I better go for Trump" is certainly one method of picking a candidate.
posted by mittens at 7:11 PM on April 11 [10 favorites]
posted by mittens at 7:11 PM on April 11 [10 favorites]
I think in our hearts we all know who is going to win.
At thsi point, absent some dramatic event, I suspect the pre-2020 rules has Biden winning. Understand this does not mean I'm so naive as to regard it as simply better-than-a-coin-toss, much less a lock. More of a significant lean.
It's the period between election and inauguration that seriously concerns me. At this point, I believe that a high percentage (perhaps a majority) of Trump supporters will only accept Trump winning. Anything else is a fraud imposed by a dictatorship. Trump could get less than a tenth of the electoral vote (admittedly an near-impossibility), and they would assume Trump was robbed.
What plays out between these two benchmarks--ranging from courts to legislatures to the ground--is really going to determine the fate of the US. Are we going to continue the (more-or-less) peaceful transfer of power and acceptance of the will of the people, or are we going to descend into Civil War?
posted by MrGuilt at 7:13 PM on April 11
At thsi point, absent some dramatic event, I suspect the pre-2020 rules has Biden winning. Understand this does not mean I'm so naive as to regard it as simply better-than-a-coin-toss, much less a lock. More of a significant lean.
It's the period between election and inauguration that seriously concerns me. At this point, I believe that a high percentage (perhaps a majority) of Trump supporters will only accept Trump winning. Anything else is a fraud imposed by a dictatorship. Trump could get less than a tenth of the electoral vote (admittedly an near-impossibility), and they would assume Trump was robbed.
What plays out between these two benchmarks--ranging from courts to legislatures to the ground--is really going to determine the fate of the US. Are we going to continue the (more-or-less) peaceful transfer of power and acceptance of the will of the people, or are we going to descend into Civil War?
posted by MrGuilt at 7:13 PM on April 11
Well, I'd vote for Biden, but somebody on social media said something I don't like, so I guess I better go for Trump" is certainly one method of picking a candidate.
Could you have some fucking compassion, dude? I’m not going to vote for trump. I’m still allowed to be disturbed by that shit and I’m also allowed to point out that Uncle Ian is already to the right of me and HE might vote for trump. Am I not allowed to point out a potential wedge issue?
posted by bq at 7:19 PM on April 11 [4 favorites]
Could you have some fucking compassion, dude? I’m not going to vote for trump. I’m still allowed to be disturbed by that shit and I’m also allowed to point out that Uncle Ian is already to the right of me and HE might vote for trump. Am I not allowed to point out a potential wedge issue?
posted by bq at 7:19 PM on April 11 [4 favorites]
I’ve literally seen posts like ‘I don’t care if colonizers are murdered’ and ‘everyone in Israel should be killed’ on mainstream social media. At that point I muted the keywords and swore off online discussion of this issue, but here I am again like a dumbass.
I know that rhetoric is out there and it's appalling-- I've seen it, I think anybody who traffics in it is being a garbage person. But people are responding to the implication that because of those posts, some Jewish voters might refuse to vote Democratic, and they're saying that's not justified because, well, not a single Democratic party leader has said those things. I don't even know of any Democratic lawmakers, major or minor, who have said anything even close to that revolting, certainly none at the federal level. Online leftists are not the party. Even what you might consider the most outspokenly and visibly anti-Israel voices in the party, like Rashida Tlaib or Ilhan Omar, are far, far from being leaders in the party (and I would also unequivocally reject any claim that they have used the kind of rhetoric you are referring to). So people are saying that using that online rhetoric as a justification to not vote Democratic seems insensible at best and disingenuous at worst.
By contrast, when it comes to Republicans, antisemitic nonsense isn't just the domain of people on the internet. It's actual office holders and party leaders. Paul Gosar speaks at rallies alongside Neo-Nazis like Nick Fuentes and shares Neo-Nazi websites in his newsletter. Matt Gaetz does the whole 'George Soros' thing so much even other Republicans think it's excessive. Marjorie Taylor Greene is... you know, Marjorie Taylor Greene. And the unquestioned head of the party, the guy Biden is running against, has a record of antisemitic statements and actions going back literal decades, capped off most recently by telling every Jewish person that if they don't vote for him they hate themselves, their religion, and Israel. This really is an either/or proposition, it's gonna be one or the other, that's the choice in front of us.
So I think it's pretty understandable for people to see "Jewish voters won't vote for Biden because online leftists say horrid things" and find it, I don't know, not a very sensible position to take, and potentially indicative of a bad faith argument given the horrid things on the other side of the aisle are being said by people who are actually leading the party.
posted by Method Man at 7:29 PM on April 11 [30 favorites]
I know that rhetoric is out there and it's appalling-- I've seen it, I think anybody who traffics in it is being a garbage person. But people are responding to the implication that because of those posts, some Jewish voters might refuse to vote Democratic, and they're saying that's not justified because, well, not a single Democratic party leader has said those things. I don't even know of any Democratic lawmakers, major or minor, who have said anything even close to that revolting, certainly none at the federal level. Online leftists are not the party. Even what you might consider the most outspokenly and visibly anti-Israel voices in the party, like Rashida Tlaib or Ilhan Omar, are far, far from being leaders in the party (and I would also unequivocally reject any claim that they have used the kind of rhetoric you are referring to). So people are saying that using that online rhetoric as a justification to not vote Democratic seems insensible at best and disingenuous at worst.
By contrast, when it comes to Republicans, antisemitic nonsense isn't just the domain of people on the internet. It's actual office holders and party leaders. Paul Gosar speaks at rallies alongside Neo-Nazis like Nick Fuentes and shares Neo-Nazi websites in his newsletter. Matt Gaetz does the whole 'George Soros' thing so much even other Republicans think it's excessive. Marjorie Taylor Greene is... you know, Marjorie Taylor Greene. And the unquestioned head of the party, the guy Biden is running against, has a record of antisemitic statements and actions going back literal decades, capped off most recently by telling every Jewish person that if they don't vote for him they hate themselves, their religion, and Israel. This really is an either/or proposition, it's gonna be one or the other, that's the choice in front of us.
So I think it's pretty understandable for people to see "Jewish voters won't vote for Biden because online leftists say horrid things" and find it, I don't know, not a very sensible position to take, and potentially indicative of a bad faith argument given the horrid things on the other side of the aisle are being said by people who are actually leading the party.
posted by Method Man at 7:29 PM on April 11 [30 favorites]
I’ll allow it could be a wedge issue but I think better of people that it could be a significant one. Or worse of people if that relies on thinking most of the groundwork had to have been done with anyone going that way anyway.
posted by Artw at 7:42 PM on April 11 [2 favorites]
posted by Artw at 7:42 PM on April 11 [2 favorites]
In the spirit of the "not a wolf" account, is there a social media parody account "Not a Russian bot" that spews out things like "AS A LIFELOONK DIEMOCRAT I SAY ISRAYELL MOOST BE DESTROOYT"
Because I have a feeling 1/6 of the genocidal hate speech is neo nazi, 1/6 is young idiots, and the rest is straight up Russian Bot. Can I coin Botka for that, it's shorter and maybe catchy.
posted by BrotherCaine at 7:50 PM on April 11 [5 favorites]
Because I have a feeling 1/6 of the genocidal hate speech is neo nazi, 1/6 is young idiots, and the rest is straight up Russian Bot. Can I coin Botka for that, it's shorter and maybe catchy.
posted by BrotherCaine at 7:50 PM on April 11 [5 favorites]
Be the social media parody account you want to see in the world.
posted by hippybear at 7:53 PM on April 11 [9 favorites]
posted by hippybear at 7:53 PM on April 11 [9 favorites]
No one in this thread is saying ‘I won’t vote for Biden bc of x’. Please stop explaining why x is a bad reason. The question is, what is the fact that some people feel that way going to do to the election? And what is the Democratic going to do to sway those voters back?
posted by bq at 8:00 PM on April 11 [1 favorite]
posted by bq at 8:00 PM on April 11 [1 favorite]
Why is there a desperate need to court right wing voters back to Biden?
When leftists have had qualms about supporting Biden for any number of completely valid reasons, the response is to tell them to shut up and vote like their told.
But we need to woo people angry that the Democrats aren't sufficiently lined up behind mass murder?
posted by The Manwich Horror at 8:06 PM on April 11 [12 favorites]
When leftists have had qualms about supporting Biden for any number of completely valid reasons, the response is to tell them to shut up and vote like their told.
But we need to woo people angry that the Democrats aren't sufficiently lined up behind mass murder?
posted by The Manwich Horror at 8:06 PM on April 11 [12 favorites]
Honestly it's so far out from the election I think the general stance is to sit and wait for the situation to change. How many people swearing to dunk Biden right now because of Gaza would be doing the same if Gaza ends up being a non-issue for whatever reason within the next 3 months so they have 3 months to not have that front of mind?
The thing is we absolutely need to have clear messaging about what Biden has accomplished already, with emphasis on Pelosi being the bridge that brought all these bills to a vote during his first two years. Figuring out how to make it clear what the benefits are from these bills that were passed but have, as of yet, had little real world impact on voters' lives... That's a problem.
Biden has been messaging clearly that if he is reelected with a democratic Congress he will do a ton of really great things for Americans. But I don't think that message is getting out very well.
I don't know how to change this.
posted by hippybear at 8:08 PM on April 11 [3 favorites]
The thing is we absolutely need to have clear messaging about what Biden has accomplished already, with emphasis on Pelosi being the bridge that brought all these bills to a vote during his first two years. Figuring out how to make it clear what the benefits are from these bills that were passed but have, as of yet, had little real world impact on voters' lives... That's a problem.
Biden has been messaging clearly that if he is reelected with a democratic Congress he will do a ton of really great things for Americans. But I don't think that message is getting out very well.
I don't know how to change this.
posted by hippybear at 8:08 PM on April 11 [3 favorites]
Do you think the only Jews alienated by antisemitism are right wing voters?
posted by bq at 8:08 PM on April 11 [2 favorites]
posted by bq at 8:08 PM on April 11 [2 favorites]
Do you think the only Jews alienated by antisemitism are right wing voters?
I think Zionists angry that the left has been critical of the genocide in Gaza are right wing, absolutely.
No one genuinely concerned about anti-Semitism would be considering a vote for the Republican party.
posted by The Manwich Horror at 8:10 PM on April 11 [14 favorites]
I think Zionists angry that the left has been critical of the genocide in Gaza are right wing, absolutely.
No one genuinely concerned about anti-Semitism would be considering a vote for the Republican party.
posted by The Manwich Horror at 8:10 PM on April 11 [14 favorites]
Do you think the only Jews alienated by antisemitism are right wing voters?
I don't assume that the people who are currently taking a stance against Biden are either Jewish or antisemitic. I also don't assume that people taking a stance against Biden over this specific issue are right wing voters. There's so much conflation happening in this question it's hard to discuss it seriously.
posted by hippybear at 8:14 PM on April 11 [6 favorites]
I don't assume that the people who are currently taking a stance against Biden are either Jewish or antisemitic. I also don't assume that people taking a stance against Biden over this specific issue are right wing voters. There's so much conflation happening in this question it's hard to discuss it seriously.
posted by hippybear at 8:14 PM on April 11 [6 favorites]
Good night. I’m sad that I wasn’t able to get across what i wanted to say effectively.
posted by bq at 8:17 PM on April 11 [2 favorites]
posted by bq at 8:17 PM on April 11 [2 favorites]
we need to woo people angry that the Democrats aren't sufficiently lined up behind mass murder?
I will boldly state that what is happening both in Ukraine and Gaza is relatively insignificant compared to what will happen to the entire human race for at least the next 50-100 years if Trump is reelected and remains there. If the new tri-Axis corner stone of BRICS achieves stability at least a third of humanity will be enslaved by 2100.
posted by CynicalKnight at 8:28 PM on April 11 [3 favorites]
I will boldly state that what is happening both in Ukraine and Gaza is relatively insignificant compared to what will happen to the entire human race for at least the next 50-100 years if Trump is reelected and remains there. If the new tri-Axis corner stone of BRICS achieves stability at least a third of humanity will be enslaved by 2100.
posted by CynicalKnight at 8:28 PM on April 11 [3 favorites]
Crucially, though, what is going on in Ukraine and Gaza is real.
posted by The Manwich Horror at 8:31 PM on April 11 [16 favorites]
posted by The Manwich Horror at 8:31 PM on April 11 [16 favorites]
I think claims of antisemitism are being inflated and misused to avoid stopping ethnic cleansing, and that act is doing more to undo generations of good work than any other moment in the last 70 years.
posted by constraint at 1:01 AM on April 12 [9 favorites]
posted by constraint at 1:01 AM on April 12 [9 favorites]
Biden has been messaging clearly that if he is reelected with a democratic Congress he will do a ton of really great things for Americans. But I don't think that message is getting out very well.
It’s hard to take this kind of message seriously given the track record. At the end of the day the Democrats might retake the House but have an uphill battle for the Senate. Which means if they hold the Senate it will be by a tight margin…which means the right flank of the party will stymie or water down anything of substance. Remember, this is the party who couldn’t pass voting rights laws to help keep themselves in power because of a few intransigents in their own party.
So voters can see that Biden is going to either be working with a split congress or, a congress held hostage again by the party’s right flank. So you’re likely looking at 4 more years of status quo…at best.
This is better than fascists being in power but it’s not exactly something to get fired up about. If the Democrats want to have this message of doing great things, they need to show how it will actually be different this time.
posted by delicious-luncheon at 4:08 AM on April 12 [5 favorites]
It’s hard to take this kind of message seriously given the track record. At the end of the day the Democrats might retake the House but have an uphill battle for the Senate. Which means if they hold the Senate it will be by a tight margin…which means the right flank of the party will stymie or water down anything of substance. Remember, this is the party who couldn’t pass voting rights laws to help keep themselves in power because of a few intransigents in their own party.
So voters can see that Biden is going to either be working with a split congress or, a congress held hostage again by the party’s right flank. So you’re likely looking at 4 more years of status quo…at best.
This is better than fascists being in power but it’s not exactly something to get fired up about. If the Democrats want to have this message of doing great things, they need to show how it will actually be different this time.
posted by delicious-luncheon at 4:08 AM on April 12 [5 favorites]
If the Democrats want to have this message of doing great things, they need to show how it will actually be different this time.
Well, Manchin and Sinema will be gone.
posted by Karmeliet at 5:18 AM on April 12 [2 favorites]
Well, Manchin and Sinema will be gone.
posted by Karmeliet at 5:18 AM on April 12 [2 favorites]
I don't want at all to downplay how frightening anti-Semitic rhetoric is for Jewish people and their loved ones. And I don't blame anyone for feeling put off by the bigoted voices on the fringe of the left.
But I do think anyone who believes that the American right will be better for Jewish Americans is deluded, and attempting to conflate criticism of Israel's criminal behavior with hatred of Jewish people is a convenient narrative for supporters of Israel's actions in Gaza to whitewash their support for ethnic cleansing as a reaction to bigotry in which they have no agency.
posted by The Manwich Horror at 6:03 AM on April 12 [6 favorites]
But I do think anyone who believes that the American right will be better for Jewish Americans is deluded, and attempting to conflate criticism of Israel's criminal behavior with hatred of Jewish people is a convenient narrative for supporters of Israel's actions in Gaza to whitewash their support for ethnic cleansing as a reaction to bigotry in which they have no agency.
posted by The Manwich Horror at 6:03 AM on April 12 [6 favorites]
Mod note: Couple of comments and responses removed. Please be considerate, respectful, and thoughtful and avoid hyperbolic comments that predict a new dark age for the entire human race, thank you.
posted by Brandon Blatcher (staff) at 6:40 AM on April 12 [4 favorites]
posted by Brandon Blatcher (staff) at 6:40 AM on April 12 [4 favorites]
Israel. You’re going to see a lot of Jewish people abandon the Democratic Party, given how we’ve been treated by the Left. There’s a palpable feeling out there of betrayal by groups whose freedom we supported, now championing the annihilation of Israel. I’m not saying I’m going to vote for Trump, but you’re going to see a dramatic shift there…
My point having been, there is a difference between not voting for Joe Biden and affirmatively voting FOR Donald Trump.
And, yes, the former is a problem and an ongoing concern and a legitimate factor in this year's election. It has the potential to be disruptive and dangerous. But anyone who would decide "I am angry at Joe Biden for abetting the Gaza genocide, so I will instead proudly cast my vote for the guy who moved the embassy to Jerusalem and openly stated that Israel needs to 'finish the job'" has a major head injury and/or was on Team Trump from the beginning, because that's an affirmative embrace of the exact thing they claimed to be protesting.
Well, Manchin and Sinema will be gone.
And someone else will take their place as the designated persons to Exhibit Serious Concerns about Overstepping and Muting the Voice of the Minority and Disrupting Long-Standing Senate Procedures. It's a sure thing. Others hesitated to step up into that role while Manchin and Sinema were taking the flak, but there is an on-deck circle.
The Democrats have a narrow path to having nominal control of the Presidency, House and Senate next year. It's tight, but it's possible. But they are not going to have 60 in the Senate, or close to it. They are not going to have 50+1 who are champing at the bit to make radical changes to the filibuster right out of the gate, or have a hard push to stack the Supreme Court by anyone in a position to even remotely contribute to that happening, or have Biden ardently urging them to do either of those.
Even in that best-case scenario, there will not be a clear call for a full sea change in Washington because there is no institutional appetite for that. Reforms and changes in stances will happen similarly to how Biden's handling of Israel-Gaza has progressed -- agonizingly slowly, in baby steps, performatively rather than constructively until necessity demands it, and always triangulating, triangulating, triangulating towards freedom.
posted by delfin at 6:53 AM on April 12 [6 favorites]
My point having been, there is a difference between not voting for Joe Biden and affirmatively voting FOR Donald Trump.
And, yes, the former is a problem and an ongoing concern and a legitimate factor in this year's election. It has the potential to be disruptive and dangerous. But anyone who would decide "I am angry at Joe Biden for abetting the Gaza genocide, so I will instead proudly cast my vote for the guy who moved the embassy to Jerusalem and openly stated that Israel needs to 'finish the job'" has a major head injury and/or was on Team Trump from the beginning, because that's an affirmative embrace of the exact thing they claimed to be protesting.
Well, Manchin and Sinema will be gone.
And someone else will take their place as the designated persons to Exhibit Serious Concerns about Overstepping and Muting the Voice of the Minority and Disrupting Long-Standing Senate Procedures. It's a sure thing. Others hesitated to step up into that role while Manchin and Sinema were taking the flak, but there is an on-deck circle.
The Democrats have a narrow path to having nominal control of the Presidency, House and Senate next year. It's tight, but it's possible. But they are not going to have 60 in the Senate, or close to it. They are not going to have 50+1 who are champing at the bit to make radical changes to the filibuster right out of the gate, or have a hard push to stack the Supreme Court by anyone in a position to even remotely contribute to that happening, or have Biden ardently urging them to do either of those.
Even in that best-case scenario, there will not be a clear call for a full sea change in Washington because there is no institutional appetite for that. Reforms and changes in stances will happen similarly to how Biden's handling of Israel-Gaza has progressed -- agonizingly slowly, in baby steps, performatively rather than constructively until necessity demands it, and always triangulating, triangulating, triangulating towards freedom.
posted by delfin at 6:53 AM on April 12 [6 favorites]
If the Democrats want to have this message of doing great things, they need to show how it will actually be different this time.
Or promise even greater things. I wish someone would realize that the penalty for not being able to deliver incremental progress is that people will expect you to aim higher next time.
Actually, I feel Biden did just that during the 2020 campaign. For once it felt like Democrats were finally going big and I'm very disappointed that it didn't happen for the most stupid of reasons. And I'm further disappointed that this year's campaign (so far!) doesn't seem to have the same kind of focus. Maybe it's because we're no longer in the middle of a pandemic, or maybe Democrats honestly believe people care about unseen improvements to infrastructure in the same way that they care about student loan forgiveness or child tax credits.
posted by RonButNotStupid at 6:55 AM on April 12 [3 favorites]
Or promise even greater things. I wish someone would realize that the penalty for not being able to deliver incremental progress is that people will expect you to aim higher next time.
Actually, I feel Biden did just that during the 2020 campaign. For once it felt like Democrats were finally going big and I'm very disappointed that it didn't happen for the most stupid of reasons. And I'm further disappointed that this year's campaign (so far!) doesn't seem to have the same kind of focus. Maybe it's because we're no longer in the middle of a pandemic, or maybe Democrats honestly believe people care about unseen improvements to infrastructure in the same way that they care about student loan forgiveness or child tax credits.
posted by RonButNotStupid at 6:55 AM on April 12 [3 favorites]
I'm also angry that electing Biden in 2020 doesn't seem to have done anything to stop Trump.
Republicans get to play a maximalist, winner-takes-all game but Democrats can't even unite to get rid of the filibuster to order to pass stronger voting rights or combat gerrymandering? (Let alone do anything more extreme like pass statehood for DC to increase the number of Senators or increase the size of the Supreme Court). Also Blue Slips. Fucking blue slips. After all those arguments about how important it is to install as many federal judges as possible, Democrats go out of their way to let Republicans have a veto.
posted by RonButNotStupid at 7:22 AM on April 12 [9 favorites]
Republicans get to play a maximalist, winner-takes-all game but Democrats can't even unite to get rid of the filibuster to order to pass stronger voting rights or combat gerrymandering? (Let alone do anything more extreme like pass statehood for DC to increase the number of Senators or increase the size of the Supreme Court). Also Blue Slips. Fucking blue slips. After all those arguments about how important it is to install as many federal judges as possible, Democrats go out of their way to let Republicans have a veto.
posted by RonButNotStupid at 7:22 AM on April 12 [9 favorites]
this horse is well beaten and dead, but if Biden is at risk of losing Jewish voters I'd be a lot more fucking worried about the young Jewish voters who are fucking horrified that Israel is genociding Palestinians and the US is abetting that, because yes Biden stands to lose those Jewish voters
I can't believe we are pussy footing around "people are saying terrible antisemitic things in online spaces" like **that's** what we should be worried about. People who are against the genocide have paid a price and are paying a price, maybe worry about losing that vote.
posted by elkevelvet at 7:44 AM on April 12 [8 favorites]
I can't believe we are pussy footing around "people are saying terrible antisemitic things in online spaces" like **that's** what we should be worried about. People who are against the genocide have paid a price and are paying a price, maybe worry about losing that vote.
posted by elkevelvet at 7:44 AM on April 12 [8 favorites]
Nothing like these election threads make it more obvious to me how old this site is. Because Jewish voters under 30 disapprove of Israel and the genocide, all voters under 30 overwhelmingly disapprove of Israel and the genocide and recent polls show that 57% of Biden supporters think what Israel is doing right now is a genocide.
The 'uncommitted' protest vote movement has been overwhelmingly successful, vastly more successful than even its organizers predicted and Biden is tailed everywhere by protestors trying to keep him from aiding and abetting genocide. Even he and his team are worried that his identification with the genocide that is happening in Gaza is going to hurt him electorally this year and the Democratic party for decades to come.
And some of you are worried that he's not pro-genocide enough? And that will hurt him electorally because grandpa will see a racist tweet by a bot and decide to vote for Trump?
Go outside! Talk to someone under 40! Literally, get a clue. Develop some appreciation for how the world is changing.
posted by lizard2590 at 8:38 AM on April 12 [21 favorites]
The 'uncommitted' protest vote movement has been overwhelmingly successful, vastly more successful than even its organizers predicted and Biden is tailed everywhere by protestors trying to keep him from aiding and abetting genocide. Even he and his team are worried that his identification with the genocide that is happening in Gaza is going to hurt him electorally this year and the Democratic party for decades to come.
And some of you are worried that he's not pro-genocide enough? And that will hurt him electorally because grandpa will see a racist tweet by a bot and decide to vote for Trump?
Go outside! Talk to someone under 40! Literally, get a clue. Develop some appreciation for how the world is changing.
posted by lizard2590 at 8:38 AM on April 12 [21 favorites]
It’s hard to take this kind of message seriously given the track record. At the end of the day the Democrats might retake the House but have an uphill battle for the Senate. Which means if they hold the Senate it will be by a tight margin…which means the right flank of the party will stymie or water down anything of substance. Remember, this is the party who couldn’t pass voting rights laws to help keep themselves in power because of a few intransigents in their own party.
The problem with this argument is that Biden's record, given the exceptionally narrow margins by which his party held Congress in his first two years, has been pretty impressive. Yes, there were some pieces of legislation and some actions that fell through because of internal divisions-- but not nearly to the same extent as has been the case in past administrations with equally marginal control of Congress. I don't want to go down the laundry list of accomplishments, I'm sure Politico or somebody has put together a primer that's out there on the internet, but really, a lot of substance has been accomplished, and Biden's ability (as well as the ability of Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, and other party leaders) to keep the party united and working in harmony has been remarkable.
But the response of many voters in America reminds me of the coach who asked his player if he was ignorant or just apathetic and the player responded, "I don't know, and I don't care."
posted by Method Man at 9:07 AM on April 12 [3 favorites]
The problem with this argument is that Biden's record, given the exceptionally narrow margins by which his party held Congress in his first two years, has been pretty impressive. Yes, there were some pieces of legislation and some actions that fell through because of internal divisions-- but not nearly to the same extent as has been the case in past administrations with equally marginal control of Congress. I don't want to go down the laundry list of accomplishments, I'm sure Politico or somebody has put together a primer that's out there on the internet, but really, a lot of substance has been accomplished, and Biden's ability (as well as the ability of Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, and other party leaders) to keep the party united and working in harmony has been remarkable.
But the response of many voters in America reminds me of the coach who asked his player if he was ignorant or just apathetic and the player responded, "I don't know, and I don't care."
posted by Method Man at 9:07 AM on April 12 [3 favorites]
There isn’t a single major issue that we aren’t in a holding pattern on and we will continue to be in a holding pattern for another four year in November, AT BEST. It is hard to be enthusiastic for it.
posted by Artw at 9:25 AM on April 12 [2 favorites]
posted by Artw at 9:25 AM on April 12 [2 favorites]
"The Jews are a monolithic Zionist bloc whose primary concern is Israel" is not only blatantly antisemitic, but factually untrue.
posted by Glegrinof the Pig-Man at 9:57 AM on April 12 [11 favorites]
posted by Glegrinof the Pig-Man at 9:57 AM on April 12 [11 favorites]
Not sure taking the same side as Rashida Tlalib, recognizing the incredibly difficult political challenge in our current environment to stopping the IDF killing Gazans, and being super anxious about the return of Trump = being pro-genocide.
And really? Metafilter members - a combo of liberal to leftist to anarchist people - are pro-genocide? Not quite sure about that one.
*it’s a genocide. It needs to stop. The US government needs to do much more. Netanyahu needs to be in The Hague. Israel deserves to exist. The Palestinian people must have their own nation.
posted by WatTylerJr at 11:39 AM on April 12 [4 favorites]
And really? Metafilter members - a combo of liberal to leftist to anarchist people - are pro-genocide? Not quite sure about that one.
*it’s a genocide. It needs to stop. The US government needs to do much more. Netanyahu needs to be in The Hague. Israel deserves to exist. The Palestinian people must have their own nation.
posted by WatTylerJr at 11:39 AM on April 12 [4 favorites]
Interesting article hanging off the main article about the whole “young people are leaning Trump” thing. It’s based on polling, which I don’t trust etc., but pretty interesting and suggests a lot of the panic was bunk.
posted by Artw at 3:03 PM on April 12 [1 favorite]
posted by Artw at 3:03 PM on April 12 [1 favorite]
I checked in the swing calculator how much lower the turnout of 18-29 voters would have to be for Biden to lose a 2020 rematch, assuming nothing else changes.
You need a drop from 46% to 37% turnout. That seems plausible given both that 2020 was an unusually high youth turnout year and how radioactive Biden is with anyone under 35.
posted by zymil at 12:47 AM on April 13
You need a drop from 46% to 37% turnout. That seems plausible given both that 2020 was an unusually high youth turnout year and how radioactive Biden is with anyone under 35.
posted by zymil at 12:47 AM on April 13
Biden Shrinks Trump's Edge in Latest Times/Siena Poll (NYT gift)
It's a move from 48-44 Trump to 46-45 Trump, with a 3-4% margin of error, but it'll get reported like it's the freaking moon landing.
Polls are imperfect at best, they seem to be becoming less predictive, and they're almost always meaningless this far out (nationwide polls especially so because Electoral College). And a large volume of campaign reporting is either 'this poll said something,' 'this person in a diner said something,' or 'here's a self-serving prediction from a spokesperson,' and all of these stories are pretty much useless or worse.
Which isn't to say I won't keep posting them, because I probably will.
posted by box at 6:30 AM on April 13 [1 favorite]
It's a move from 48-44 Trump to 46-45 Trump, with a 3-4% margin of error, but it'll get reported like it's the freaking moon landing.
Polls are imperfect at best, they seem to be becoming less predictive, and they're almost always meaningless this far out (nationwide polls especially so because Electoral College). And a large volume of campaign reporting is either 'this poll said something,' 'this person in a diner said something,' or 'here's a self-serving prediction from a spokesperson,' and all of these stories are pretty much useless or worse.
Which isn't to say I won't keep posting them, because I probably will.
posted by box at 6:30 AM on April 13 [1 favorite]
I cannot see any use whatsoever for a straight percentage of voters poll in an American electoral system.
posted by Artw at 8:09 AM on April 13 [4 favorites]
posted by Artw at 8:09 AM on April 13 [4 favorites]
I'm fascinated that an accusation being leveled above is that Biden will alienate Jewish voters by being insufficiently supportive of Israel; I feel like it was just over a month ago in the last thread discussing Biden's grim prospects that the talking point of the day was that Biden was being too supportive of the genocide of Palestinians. If there is a correct position for Biden to take on Israel (which maybe there isn't; there are definitely political zugzwang situations where nothing you do will ever meet with anyone's approval), surely both these things can't be true, that he is simultaneously too supportive and not supportive enough of Israel to properly represent Democratic values.
Speaking as an American Jew, and one of a member of the demographic that was raised to see Israel as a beacon of hope for Jews, I'm highly dubious that American Jewry as a whole is inclined to see Biden's current position as hostile to Jews, and frankly a lot of us would be insulted by the notion that pushing back on Israel as a state (especially the weak, equivocal pushback we've seen thus far) is intrinsically anti-Semitic. I hear altogether too many peole and institutions (the ADL particularly prominent among them) equating criticism of Israel's policies with criticism of Jews, and I'm not having that. Yes, Israel as a nation is of significant importance to Jews, but few of us are going all "my country, right or wrong" about it, and for those of us who firmly believe that Israel is in the wrong here, equating anti-Israel rhetoric with anti-Jewish rhetoric seem to be trying to silence legitimate criticism.
posted by jackbishop at 9:55 AM on April 13 [10 favorites]
Speaking as an American Jew, and one of a member of the demographic that was raised to see Israel as a beacon of hope for Jews, I'm highly dubious that American Jewry as a whole is inclined to see Biden's current position as hostile to Jews, and frankly a lot of us would be insulted by the notion that pushing back on Israel as a state (especially the weak, equivocal pushback we've seen thus far) is intrinsically anti-Semitic. I hear altogether too many peole and institutions (the ADL particularly prominent among them) equating criticism of Israel's policies with criticism of Jews, and I'm not having that. Yes, Israel as a nation is of significant importance to Jews, but few of us are going all "my country, right or wrong" about it, and for those of us who firmly believe that Israel is in the wrong here, equating anti-Israel rhetoric with anti-Jewish rhetoric seem to be trying to silence legitimate criticism.
posted by jackbishop at 9:55 AM on April 13 [10 favorites]
I cannot see any use whatsoever for a straight percentage of voters poll in an American electoral system.
The results in the swing states are correlated with the national polling. If Biden improves in the national polling it means he is very likely also improving in the swing states; if he loses ground nationally he is very likely also losing ground in the swing states.
You're right that you can't know exactly where the break even point is where a national polling lead translates into a win in the electoral college (probably somewhere around 3% but with big error bars) but you can use a national polling average to judge whether a candidate's position is improving or degrading!
posted by Justinian at 11:54 AM on April 13
The results in the swing states are correlated with the national polling. If Biden improves in the national polling it means he is very likely also improving in the swing states; if he loses ground nationally he is very likely also losing ground in the swing states.
You're right that you can't know exactly where the break even point is where a national polling lead translates into a win in the electoral college (probably somewhere around 3% but with big error bars) but you can use a national polling average to judge whether a candidate's position is improving or degrading!
posted by Justinian at 11:54 AM on April 13
Go outside! Talk to someone under 40! Literally, get a clue. Develop some appreciation for how the world is changing.
With respect, it's not just the olds that need a clue. Since this is a thread about voting - ( which the USA's interaction with Israel/Palestine obviously deeply affects ) - and DEMOGRAPHY the world may be changing,........but grandpa's still got it.
From Census.gov
"Voting rates were higher in 2020 than in 2016 across all age groups, with turnout by voters ages 18-34 increasing the most between elections:
For citizens ages 18-34, 57% voted in 2020, up from 49% in 2016.
In the 35-64 age group, turnout was 69%, compared to 65% in 2016.
In the 65 and older group, 74% voted in 2020, compared to 71% in 2016."
So, the most engaged and enthusiastic turnout in recent electoral history from 18-34 year olds in 2020 - which to be blunt, is unlikely to be repeated (by the admission of people working on the ground, VERY VERY HARD to get turnout in young people) means that .....
--
? And that will hurt him electorally because grandpa will see a racist tweet by a bot and decide to vote for Trump?
So, sad as it may be lizard2590, yes, that - and the broader indoctrination to intrinsically conservative-with-a-small-c aged electorate who vote - is absolutely in the calculus of the democratic party.
posted by lalochezia at 7:00 AM on April 14 [1 favorite]
With respect, it's not just the olds that need a clue. Since this is a thread about voting - ( which the USA's interaction with Israel/Palestine obviously deeply affects ) - and DEMOGRAPHY the world may be changing,........but grandpa's still got it.
From Census.gov
"Voting rates were higher in 2020 than in 2016 across all age groups, with turnout by voters ages 18-34 increasing the most between elections:
For citizens ages 18-34, 57% voted in 2020, up from 49% in 2016.
In the 35-64 age group, turnout was 69%, compared to 65% in 2016.
In the 65 and older group, 74% voted in 2020, compared to 71% in 2016."
So, the most engaged and enthusiastic turnout in recent electoral history from 18-34 year olds in 2020 - which to be blunt, is unlikely to be repeated (by the admission of people working on the ground, VERY VERY HARD to get turnout in young people) means that .....
--
? And that will hurt him electorally because grandpa will see a racist tweet by a bot and decide to vote for Trump?
So, sad as it may be lizard2590, yes, that - and the broader indoctrination to intrinsically conservative-with-a-small-c aged electorate who vote - is absolutely in the calculus of the democratic party.
posted by lalochezia at 7:00 AM on April 14 [1 favorite]
which to be blunt, is unlikely to be repeated
Why’s that?
posted by Artw at 7:54 AM on April 14 [1 favorite]
Why’s that?
posted by Artw at 7:54 AM on April 14 [1 favorite]
Young people don't vote, because nobody listens to them, and therefore nobody should listen to them, they'll never vote, is a truly absurd political position but is regularly presented as the purest pearl of wisdom on this site.
posted by Audreynachrome at 8:02 AM on April 14 [5 favorites]
posted by Audreynachrome at 8:02 AM on April 14 [5 favorites]
I'm 27 and I regularly feel like the youngest person here. I've identified a couple of other 27 year olds in the past year (Ask seems to do better than the Blue, and it's what brought me in too).
When I was 19, being one of the youngest people on this site made sense. Now it's all just a total farce.
posted by Audreynachrome at 8:04 AM on April 14 [4 favorites]
When I was 19, being one of the youngest people on this site made sense. Now it's all just a total farce.
posted by Audreynachrome at 8:04 AM on April 14 [4 favorites]
I’m pretty aware of the structural reasons why younger people are less able to vote.
But… they made the effort to overcome that one election, to Democratic advantage, but that’s not expected to happen again.
What has changed?
posted by Artw at 8:27 AM on April 14 [1 favorite]
But… they made the effort to overcome that one election, to Democratic advantage, but that’s not expected to happen again.
What has changed?
posted by Artw at 8:27 AM on April 14 [1 favorite]
I would say it's that young people don't yet have the life experience and history to fully internalize that change is the work of decades and decades and not one or two elections, so when things aren't radically different after one election they can feel disillusioned. Many of them start voting again when they get a little older and realize that.
posted by Justinian at 8:50 AM on April 14 [2 favorites]
posted by Justinian at 8:50 AM on April 14 [2 favorites]
But this was different in 2020?
posted by Artw at 8:57 AM on April 14 [1 favorite]
posted by Artw at 8:57 AM on April 14 [1 favorite]
'When you're older you'll understand,' there's a message that always resonates with the youths.
posted by box at 8:58 AM on April 14 [3 favorites]
posted by box at 8:58 AM on April 14 [3 favorites]
“The Bloody Math,” A.R. Moxon, The Reframe, 14 April 2024
posted by ob1quixote at 9:16 AM on April 14
posted by ob1quixote at 9:16 AM on April 14
Hey, the question wasn't "what's a good message to get out the youth vote" but "what might be the reason for a potential decline in youth vote"? Obviously those aren't the same thing.
posted by Justinian at 10:15 AM on April 14 [2 favorites]
posted by Justinian at 10:15 AM on April 14 [2 favorites]
Linked questions, probably, neither answered.
posted by Artw at 10:47 AM on April 14 [3 favorites]
posted by Artw at 10:47 AM on April 14 [3 favorites]
I would say it's that young people don't yet have the life experience and history to fully internalize that change is the work of decades and decades and not one or two elections
No. Young people get disillusioned because it's pretty clear that only positive change takes decades and decades of work. Taking the smallest step forward requires moving heaven and earth with everyone--including supposed allies--fighting you every step of the way. But if you want to just burn it all down and forcibly regress society to the 19th century? That just takes one or two elections.
The solution is to help young people achieve what they want. Don't scold them about how long it takes to change things or how they aren't being practical. Fucking do something about racism, inequality, global warming, student loans, etc.
posted by RonButNotStupid at 6:03 AM on April 15 [6 favorites]
No. Young people get disillusioned because it's pretty clear that only positive change takes decades and decades of work. Taking the smallest step forward requires moving heaven and earth with everyone--including supposed allies--fighting you every step of the way. But if you want to just burn it all down and forcibly regress society to the 19th century? That just takes one or two elections.
The solution is to help young people achieve what they want. Don't scold them about how long it takes to change things or how they aren't being practical. Fucking do something about racism, inequality, global warming, student loans, etc.
posted by RonButNotStupid at 6:03 AM on April 15 [6 favorites]
And am well aware that in almost all of those cases, 'something' is being 'done' and that it's better than nothing, much better than the alternative, and in a few areas what's being done is pretty good.
But it would be really nice if we could skip the condescension about young people's expectations vs. reality. It's difficult to get people motivated to work for change if it's unrealistic to expect change. Obama's campaign poster was emblazoned with the word "CHANGE", not "CHANGE (but only after decades and decades of work)". You can't keep chiding people for having a "green lantern theory" and scolding them for not knowing what's possible while expecting them to still be enthusiastic about the system.
posted by RonButNotStupid at 6:32 AM on April 15 [4 favorites]
But it would be really nice if we could skip the condescension about young people's expectations vs. reality. It's difficult to get people motivated to work for change if it's unrealistic to expect change. Obama's campaign poster was emblazoned with the word "CHANGE", not "CHANGE (but only after decades and decades of work)". You can't keep chiding people for having a "green lantern theory" and scolding them for not knowing what's possible while expecting them to still be enthusiastic about the system.
posted by RonButNotStupid at 6:32 AM on April 15 [4 favorites]
Per recent polls, as much as you trust them, the real big problem is Gen X.
posted by Artw at 7:55 AM on April 15
posted by Artw at 7:55 AM on April 15
Crosstabs are notoriously unreliable but we've seen similar strengths and weaknesses in other polling. An election where the Democratic candidate's biggest strength is seniors and biggest weakness is Gen X? What a world.
posted by Justinian at 11:16 AM on April 15
posted by Justinian at 11:16 AM on April 15
I would say it's that young people don't yet have the life experience and history to fully internalize that change is the work of decades and decades and not one or two elections, so when things aren't radically different after one election they can feel disillusioned. Many of them start voting again when they get a little older and realize that.
Spot on, and well put -- not "condescending toward young people" at all. I've experienced this process in my own life. I understand the slow pace of substantive forward political progress better in my 50s than I did in my 20s, because I understand the complexity of the political system better, having observed how it works for decades.
I understand how Justinian's comment might be unsatisfying to people, but it's accurate. It doesn't contain any "scolding" or "chiding".
posted by Artifice_Eternity at 12:42 PM on April 15 [1 favorite]
Spot on, and well put -- not "condescending toward young people" at all. I've experienced this process in my own life. I understand the slow pace of substantive forward political progress better in my 50s than I did in my 20s, because I understand the complexity of the political system better, having observed how it works for decades.
I understand how Justinian's comment might be unsatisfying to people, but it's accurate. It doesn't contain any "scolding" or "chiding".
posted by Artifice_Eternity at 12:42 PM on April 15 [1 favorite]
No. Young people get disillusioned because it's pretty clear that only positive change takes decades and decades of work. Taking the smallest step forward requires moving heaven and earth with everyone--including supposed allies--fighting you every step of the way. But if you want to just burn it all down and forcibly regress society to the 19th century? That just takes one or two elections.
I disagree. The right also fights decades-long, grindingly slow battles to achieve the regressive victories that they occasionally score. As many have observed, there are conservative groups fielding candidates for elections at every level, from dogcatcher to school board to state assembly to Congress to the White House.
In many election cycles, they lose, and complain bitterly to each other about what they consider to be the spineless, compromised GOP. But the most dedicated ones keep at it, and sometimes it pays off.
They also envision the left as a menacing, powerful, well-oiled machine effortlessly racking up win after win.
In many ways it's a mirror image of how the left sees the right.
posted by Artifice_Eternity at 12:48 PM on April 15 [2 favorites]
I disagree. The right also fights decades-long, grindingly slow battles to achieve the regressive victories that they occasionally score. As many have observed, there are conservative groups fielding candidates for elections at every level, from dogcatcher to school board to state assembly to Congress to the White House.
In many election cycles, they lose, and complain bitterly to each other about what they consider to be the spineless, compromised GOP. But the most dedicated ones keep at it, and sometimes it pays off.
They also envision the left as a menacing, powerful, well-oiled machine effortlessly racking up win after win.
In many ways it's a mirror image of how the left sees the right.
posted by Artifice_Eternity at 12:48 PM on April 15 [2 favorites]
From December: Fewer young Americans plan to vote in 2024, Harvard youth poll finds
Which was, I think, when people started panicking about this.
Though…
Overall, the number of Americans between 18 and 29 years old who “definitely” plan to vote for president decreased from 57 percent to 49 percent in a poll at a similar point in the 2020 election cycle.
Among Democrats in that demographic, that figure is now 66 percent, nearly identical to four years ago. Among Republicans, the figure is 56 percent, down 10 percentage points. And among independents, the current figure is 31 percent, also a 10-point drop.
And…
Notably, nearly 70 percent of those who favor Biden over Trump say their vote is more in “opposition to Donald Trump becoming president again” than “support for President Biden and his policies.” The opposite holds for those who favor Trump, with 65 percent saying their vote is driven by loyalty.
Biden’s lead grows with the poll’s most likely voters, with the president leading Trump by 24 percentage points.
posted by Artw at 2:27 PM on April 15 [1 favorite]
Which was, I think, when people started panicking about this.
Though…
Overall, the number of Americans between 18 and 29 years old who “definitely” plan to vote for president decreased from 57 percent to 49 percent in a poll at a similar point in the 2020 election cycle.
Among Democrats in that demographic, that figure is now 66 percent, nearly identical to four years ago. Among Republicans, the figure is 56 percent, down 10 percentage points. And among independents, the current figure is 31 percent, also a 10-point drop.
And…
Notably, nearly 70 percent of those who favor Biden over Trump say their vote is more in “opposition to Donald Trump becoming president again” than “support for President Biden and his policies.” The opposite holds for those who favor Trump, with 65 percent saying their vote is driven by loyalty.
Biden’s lead grows with the poll’s most likely voters, with the president leading Trump by 24 percentage points.
posted by Artw at 2:27 PM on April 15 [1 favorite]
No. Young people get disillusioned because it's pretty clear that only positive change takes decades and decades of work.
The 50 year project to repeal abortion rights would disagree with you. The GOP turned out in big numbers year after year, decade after decade, for every election from school board to president. They saw no forward progress on it for decades. In fact they lost ground. Many of them recognized that the politicians they were supporting were just using them for their votes and didn't actually push to get abortion repealed the way they said they would.
They did not start sitting out elections. They doubled down. They kept voting election after election, decade after decade, and got the brass ring. It took 50 years.
That's how massive change is effected. Obviously not everything will or should take that long. But it is instructive in the sort of commitment that has led to where we are now, and the sort of commitment that people (including me) on the center left and far left need to show in order to make the sweeping changes we want to see.
posted by Justinian at 2:49 PM on April 15 [1 favorite]
The 50 year project to repeal abortion rights would disagree with you. The GOP turned out in big numbers year after year, decade after decade, for every election from school board to president. They saw no forward progress on it for decades. In fact they lost ground. Many of them recognized that the politicians they were supporting were just using them for their votes and didn't actually push to get abortion repealed the way they said they would.
They did not start sitting out elections. They doubled down. They kept voting election after election, decade after decade, and got the brass ring. It took 50 years.
That's how massive change is effected. Obviously not everything will or should take that long. But it is instructive in the sort of commitment that has led to where we are now, and the sort of commitment that people (including me) on the center left and far left need to show in order to make the sweeping changes we want to see.
posted by Justinian at 2:49 PM on April 15 [1 favorite]
That said, it's always easier to break things than to build things. That isn't limited only to politics.
posted by Justinian at 2:51 PM on April 15 [1 favorite]
posted by Justinian at 2:51 PM on April 15 [1 favorite]
biggest strength is seniors and biggest weakness is Gen X?
sorry; i'm confused; a randomly-chosen gen x-er has a strong chance of qualifying for an aarp card. more seriously, if one defines "seniors" more sensibly, i should hope that what is supposed to pass for a centre-left party would do better with pensioners and those most likely to use healthcare most extensively than with the peaking-lifetime-earnings age-cohort?
posted by busted_crayons at 5:51 PM on April 15 [1 favorite]
sorry; i'm confused; a randomly-chosen gen x-er has a strong chance of qualifying for an aarp card. more seriously, if one defines "seniors" more sensibly, i should hope that what is supposed to pass for a centre-left party would do better with pensioners and those most likely to use healthcare most extensively than with the peaking-lifetime-earnings age-cohort?
posted by busted_crayons at 5:51 PM on April 15 [1 favorite]
That's how massive change is effected. Obviously not everything will or should take that long. But it is instructive in the sort of commitment that has led to where we are now, and the sort of commitment that people (including me) on the center left and far left need to show in order to make the sweeping changes we want to see.
But was that steady, persistent change achieved by organic grass roots commitment, or was it because of top-down encouragement from religious and monied interests? The GOP does benefit from structural advantages that allow them to more easily encourage individuals to care about issues that either don't affect them personally or even go against their own interests. I don't think it's fair to directly compare the commitment of the left with the commitment of the right. Certainly Republicans had the commitment to turn out year after year, but you can't ignore the influence of the Federalist Society and weekly sermons from church pulpits in keeping people committed to the cause.
And I think that's the rub. Democrats have powerful influences too, but they don't seem to have the same level of commitment towards long-term change and lack the same kind of messaging. There's no equivalent of Fox News repeated calls for tax cuts and deregulation. And quite often it seems like whenever people on the left do show up and there is a chance of achieving something, those powerful influences spring into corrective action to keep things nice and centrist (see: BBB and Manchin)
posted by RonButNotStupid at 6:09 AM on April 16 [3 favorites]
But was that steady, persistent change achieved by organic grass roots commitment, or was it because of top-down encouragement from religious and monied interests? The GOP does benefit from structural advantages that allow them to more easily encourage individuals to care about issues that either don't affect them personally or even go against their own interests. I don't think it's fair to directly compare the commitment of the left with the commitment of the right. Certainly Republicans had the commitment to turn out year after year, but you can't ignore the influence of the Federalist Society and weekly sermons from church pulpits in keeping people committed to the cause.
And I think that's the rub. Democrats have powerful influences too, but they don't seem to have the same level of commitment towards long-term change and lack the same kind of messaging. There's no equivalent of Fox News repeated calls for tax cuts and deregulation. And quite often it seems like whenever people on the left do show up and there is a chance of achieving something, those powerful influences spring into corrective action to keep things nice and centrist (see: BBB and Manchin)
posted by RonButNotStupid at 6:09 AM on April 16 [3 favorites]
The 50 year project to repeal abortion rights would disagree with you. The GOP turned out in big numbers year after year, decade after decade, for every election from school board to president.
I think this is a little bit inaccurate because long before Dobbs, abortion was all but unavailable for years in various states. And really critically, if you needed a late term abortion for some reason, good luck in lots of places -- I think for years there was a single Minneapolis doctor providing third trimester care in like a four state area around MN, flying into the Dakotas once in awhile, as one example.
The anti-choice crowd saw steady progress from Casey onwards, and a multi-branch conspiracy to create an anti-choice Supreme Court was the result of a gamble that put the icing on a well-baked cake. Pro-choice groups spent a good amount of the post-Bush era avoiding accidentally creating bad case law and anti-choice groups had triggers and so on already in place waiting for the right court to come along, which it did. So there was plenty of red meat for these voters all along. I think? Am I overstating this?
posted by kensington314 at 12:21 PM on April 16 [4 favorites]
I think this is a little bit inaccurate because long before Dobbs, abortion was all but unavailable for years in various states. And really critically, if you needed a late term abortion for some reason, good luck in lots of places -- I think for years there was a single Minneapolis doctor providing third trimester care in like a four state area around MN, flying into the Dakotas once in awhile, as one example.
The anti-choice crowd saw steady progress from Casey onwards, and a multi-branch conspiracy to create an anti-choice Supreme Court was the result of a gamble that put the icing on a well-baked cake. Pro-choice groups spent a good amount of the post-Bush era avoiding accidentally creating bad case law and anti-choice groups had triggers and so on already in place waiting for the right court to come along, which it did. So there was plenty of red meat for these voters all along. I think? Am I overstating this?
posted by kensington314 at 12:21 PM on April 16 [4 favorites]
But was that steady, persistent change achieved by organic grass roots commitment, or was it because of top-down encouragement from religious and monied interests?
Yes.
posted by Artifice_Eternity at 9:29 PM on April 21 [1 favorite]
Yes.
posted by Artifice_Eternity at 9:29 PM on April 21 [1 favorite]
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posted by The Card Cheat at 9:19 AM on April 11 [4 favorites]