Climate Change comes Home to Roost
March 27, 2017 4:11 AM Subscribe
Cyclone
Debbie, a Category
4 storm, is forecast to cross the
coast of North Queensland early tomorrow morning.
Winds of up to 250km/hr (120kn) are predicted in the centre. A storm surge as
high as 2.5
metres is expected, inundating thousands of homes.
Thousands of people in lower-lying areas have been advised to evacuate.
25,000 people have been advised to evacuate low-lying areas in Mackay.
In Bowen, a town of 10,000 people, 3500 have been advised to evacuate. The shelter has faclities for 800.
One person died in a weather-related traffic accident. More deaths are almost inevitable.
Disaster specialists are gathering for a response staged out of Cairns.
The Premier of the Queensland Government, Annastacia Palaszczuk, has issued a statement.
The Queensland Police twitter feed is tracking developments and giving advice.
It's going to be a long night.
Thousands of people in lower-lying areas have been advised to evacuate.
25,000 people have been advised to evacuate low-lying areas in Mackay.
In Bowen, a town of 10,000 people, 3500 have been advised to evacuate. The shelter has faclities for 800.
One person died in a weather-related traffic accident. More deaths are almost inevitable.
Disaster specialists are gathering for a response staged out of Cairns.
The Premier of the Queensland Government, Annastacia Palaszczuk, has issued a statement.
The Queensland Police twitter feed is tracking developments and giving advice.
It's going to be a long night.
Stay safe, everyone.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 4:50 AM on March 27, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 4:50 AM on March 27, 2017 [1 favorite]
No nuclear plants in that area, or anywhere near even if the storm wanders off its predicted path. Thank goodness!
I have family in the region, they've done all their preparations and are just waiting now. At least there has been enough time to evacuate the riskiest areas. But a lot of agriculture will be affected.
posted by harriet vane at 5:13 AM on March 27, 2017 [1 favorite]
I have family in the region, they've done all their preparations and are just waiting now. At least there has been enough time to evacuate the riskiest areas. But a lot of agriculture will be affected.
posted by harriet vane at 5:13 AM on March 27, 2017 [1 favorite]
Combat Wombat, the Disaster Specialists gathering in Cairns link was paywalled for me, so I've replaced with a different source; let me know if there's any problem!
Thinking of all our Mefites, friends and family in the area and hoping everyone comes through safe. *hugs*
posted by taz at 5:21 AM on March 27, 2017 [1 favorite]
Thinking of all our Mefites, friends and family in the area and hoping everyone comes through safe. *hugs*
posted by taz at 5:21 AM on March 27, 2017 [1 favorite]
not sure anyone is pinning this or any other cyclone on climate change. That would be bad science.
Fukushima nuclear accident was caused by a tsunami caused by a massive earthquake. Not even the most tenuous relationship to a tropical cyclone.
posted by wilful at 5:24 AM on March 27, 2017 [7 favorites]
Fukushima nuclear accident was caused by a tsunami caused by a massive earthquake. Not even the most tenuous relationship to a tropical cyclone.
posted by wilful at 5:24 AM on March 27, 2017 [7 favorites]
Without arguing about climate change and Debbie specifically (because I don't have specific knowledge), there is information indicating that the storm's severity may be linked. From the Sydney Morning Herald:
posted by taz at 5:36 AM on March 27, 2017 [8 favorites]
"We've already been able to show that climate change is already affecting the behaviour of tropical cyclones in Australia," Professor Nott said.More info in the article, of course
"One of major impacts is a very marked increase in the intensity and a marked decrease in the frequency [of cyclones]," he said. "This really started occurring quite dramatically in 1970."
posted by taz at 5:36 AM on March 27, 2017 [8 favorites]
Fukushima nuclear accident was caused by a tsunami caused by a massive earthquake. Not even the most tenuous relationship to a tropical cyclone.
The connection is concern about if any power plant will be flooded, not about the cause of the flooding.
posted by thelonius at 5:39 AM on March 27, 2017 [9 favorites]
The connection is concern about if any power plant will be flooded, not about the cause of the flooding.
posted by thelonius at 5:39 AM on March 27, 2017 [9 favorites]
Unrelated to the Queensland event, the Guardian has this article up right now. Human fingerprint found on global extreme weather.
Good luck to everyone up north. Stay safe.
posted by michswiss at 5:40 AM on March 27, 2017 [4 favorites]
Good luck to everyone up north. Stay safe.
posted by michswiss at 5:40 AM on March 27, 2017 [4 favorites]
No nuclear plants in that area, or anywhere near even if the storm wanders off its predicted path. Thank goodness!
Australia has no nuclear power plants, and just the one reactor, which is about 1400km (nearly 900mi) to the south of Bowen, QLD.
posted by zamboni at 5:58 AM on March 27, 2017 [4 favorites]
Australia has no nuclear power plants, and just the one reactor, which is about 1400km (nearly 900mi) to the south of Bowen, QLD.
posted by zamboni at 5:58 AM on March 27, 2017 [4 favorites]
In fact, as best I can tell, the closest operational nuclear power plant is Taiwan's Maanshan Nuclear Power Plant, over 5700km (>3500mi) away. We should probably concentrate on the problems that Debbie will actually cause.
posted by zamboni at 6:15 AM on March 27, 2017 [3 favorites]
posted by zamboni at 6:15 AM on March 27, 2017 [3 favorites]
In fact, as best I can tell, the closest operational nuclear power plant is Taiwan's Maanshan Nuclear Power Plant, over 5700km (>3500mi) away. We should probably concentrate on the problems that Debbie will actually cause.
posted by zamboni at 8:15 AM on March 27
Fully agreed. Thanks for the clarification. Still, I feel it's nice to know that, while there will doubtless be trouble for too many, we don't have to worry about another nuclear incident. I merely meant to express my concern for those who will be affected by this event.
All I really meant to convey is that a cyclone (or a tsunami) is bad enough, but a nuclear event on top of that would be even worse. And, yes, I obviously know the difference between a tsunami and a cyclone. My simple point was that flooding is flooding, regardless of the source.
But, as you say, let's get back to concentrating on the real threat here - Debbie. Sorry for the derail.
As I expressed before, my best wishes to all in the storm's path.
posted by InsertNiftyNameHere at 6:29 AM on March 27, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by zamboni at 8:15 AM on March 27
Fully agreed. Thanks for the clarification. Still, I feel it's nice to know that, while there will doubtless be trouble for too many, we don't have to worry about another nuclear incident. I merely meant to express my concern for those who will be affected by this event.
All I really meant to convey is that a cyclone (or a tsunami) is bad enough, but a nuclear event on top of that would be even worse. And, yes, I obviously know the difference between a tsunami and a cyclone. My simple point was that flooding is flooding, regardless of the source.
But, as you say, let's get back to concentrating on the real threat here - Debbie. Sorry for the derail.
As I expressed before, my best wishes to all in the storm's path.
posted by InsertNiftyNameHere at 6:29 AM on March 27, 2017 [1 favorite]
Thanks for the post and best of luck to all in the path of Debbie.
posted by theora55 at 6:42 AM on March 27, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by theora55 at 6:42 AM on March 27, 2017 [1 favorite]
Climate Change comes Home to Roost
Where do you think you get off, playing politics with a soon-to-be tragic natural disaster?
...
Urrgh. No, I don't have the stomach to say that with a straight face. Expect to hear it from the usual suspects (Bolt, Jones, Hadley et al) sooner rather than later, though.
Stay safe if you can. All the best.
posted by flabdablet at 9:25 AM on March 27, 2017 [1 favorite]
Where do you think you get off, playing politics with a soon-to-be tragic natural disaster?
...
Urrgh. No, I don't have the stomach to say that with a straight face. Expect to hear it from the usual suspects (Bolt, Jones, Hadley et al) sooner rather than later, though.
Stay safe if you can. All the best.
posted by flabdablet at 9:25 AM on March 27, 2017 [1 favorite]
I really just hope the front doesn't fall off any boats.
posted by AnodeCathode at 10:02 AM on March 27, 2017
posted by AnodeCathode at 10:02 AM on March 27, 2017
Last night tornadoes were on the radar for our area, and I found myself down a rabbit hole of wind maps, and as I was scanning across the globe, I saw the monster cyclone bearing down towards Queensland. It's a storm of terrifying speed and force. Having only just mostly finished rebuilding after storms last April, my thoughts and prayers are with everyone in the path.
posted by SecretAgentSockpuppet at 6:11 PM on March 27, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by SecretAgentSockpuppet at 6:11 PM on March 27, 2017 [1 favorite]
Prof. Knott from JCU was just on RN. According to his published research, Australian cyclones are showing a small tendency towards reduced frequency, increased severity. Not really detectable yet however.
posted by wilful at 7:03 PM on March 27, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by wilful at 7:03 PM on March 27, 2017 [1 favorite]
The biggest climate change impact from cyclones is likely to be sea level rises boosting storm surges over existing coastal protection.
posted by wilful at 7:26 PM on March 27, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by wilful at 7:26 PM on March 27, 2017 [1 favorite]
Ah, now that I'm not on mobile, here's a link to Ventusky, which is the wind and climate map I think is so cool. I believe I've centered it over Queensland with that link, but you can scroll and zoom to anywhere on the planet.
posted by SecretAgentSockpuppet at 12:40 PM on March 28, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by SecretAgentSockpuppet at 12:40 PM on March 28, 2017 [1 favorite]
Cyclone Debbie from space. From the ISS. Hello from the capital city of this fine state, Brisbane, which is currently being soaked with about 200ml of rain from the ex-cyclone weather system.
posted by chronic sublime at 2:31 AM on March 30, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by chronic sublime at 2:31 AM on March 30, 2017 [1 favorite]
Cyclone Debbie aftermath...
Flooding...
My home town of Lismore (aka Lovemore, aka The Lizard) is over 700 miles from where Debbie made landfall but the rain it brought has ravaged the towns of the Northern Rivers in NSW. Lismore's levee, built around a decade ago, held back the river until it didn't. Instead of steadily rising waters in the town, the levee broke at 4.30am this morning and the rushing flood of the river raged through the town centre. People are missing, many properties are destroyed, and there is more rain expected all week.
As one of many who considered the levee a bad idea ... it is awful to be proved right.
posted by Thella at 8:04 PM on March 30, 2017 [1 favorite]
Flooding...
My home town of Lismore (aka Lovemore, aka The Lizard) is over 700 miles from where Debbie made landfall but the rain it brought has ravaged the towns of the Northern Rivers in NSW. Lismore's levee, built around a decade ago, held back the river until it didn't. Instead of steadily rising waters in the town, the levee broke at 4.30am this morning and the rushing flood of the river raged through the town centre. People are missing, many properties are destroyed, and there is more rain expected all week.
As one of many who considered the levee a bad idea ... it is awful to be proved right.
posted by Thella at 8:04 PM on March 30, 2017 [1 favorite]
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posted by InsertNiftyNameHere at 4:43 AM on March 27, 2017