Bollocks. That's bollocks.
May 29, 2017 2:54 PM   Subscribe

With 10 days until the UK election, things are hotting up. This evening's TV debate (post title) featured Jeremy Corbyn (Labour, no nukes, weed) and Theresa May (Conservative, fox hunting, fraking) taking questions from Paxo and Brits like an employer "struggling" with private school fees, on Brexit and NHS funding. Elsewhere, Boris is Boris, more bollocks (Fallon edition), Abbott remains quote worthy, Leanne's favorite single is a punk anti-royalist song, people are figuring out who they agree with, and who that Tim bloke is. Meanwhile, fresh from losing a by-election and repeatedly mistaking Leanne for a Hollywood actress, this season's UKIP leader wants internment and executions. The Tories stay favorites, though odds and polls have narrowed lately.
posted by Wordshore (251 comments total) 35 users marked this as a favorite
 
Yay, a UK equivalent of your excellent US political posts! Thank you!
posted by lalex at 3:01 PM on May 29 [15 favorites]


I've been wondering for a while now how bad does the bad deal Theresa May is so scared about negotiating on our behalf have to be before it's worse than no deal, or maybe how good does the no deal deal have to be before it's better than the bad deal she's accidentally negotiated instead of negotiating a good deal like she'd promised.

Also, how many times do I have to type deal before deal stops dealing like a deal
posted by dng at 3:04 PM on May 29 [12 favorites]




I am disappointed that fraking has nothing to do with Jonathan Frakes.
posted by mushhushshu at 3:14 PM on May 29 [13 favorites]


Personal election voting strategy: currently am (reluctantly) in a rural English seat. I'd rather be in Scotland, Scandinavia or the midwest USA, but that's not how things worked out lately so hey ho.

For me; if, on election day...
- A (non-UKIP) candidate looks like they have a decent chance of unseating the incumbent Tory, then I'll vote for them.
- It looks like the incumbent Tory will stroll it (current status), then I'll choose between Labour, Lib Dems, Green. All of which I have several personal plus points, and minus points, for. Currently leaning Green.

I've also had {counts} four conversations now with that incumbent Tory MP since the election was called. That's some of her limited canvassing time occupied talking to someone who has zero intention of voting for her, rather than it being spent canvassing a floating or persuadable voter.

Unless another snap election is called, this will very likely be the last time I vote in England. It would be nice for my losing streak for this decade (several votes in England) to end, though I doubt very much it will. With the boundary changes, plus the threatened voter ID regulations - a play straight out of the US Republicans voter suppression handbook - England increasingly looks like a Conservative/right-wing/libertarian lock for a long time to come. And come June 9th, more than a few English liberals will confront the personal and complicated issue of "stay or leave" (I've already made my choice).
posted by Wordshore at 3:23 PM on May 29 [10 favorites]


Is there any chance that if the Lib Dems win, that they'd call another referendum on Brexit? Or is the UK too far down the path of no return?
posted by longdaysjourney at 3:33 PM on May 29 [1 favorite]


We have a front runner for most tasteless/least thought out comment of the campaign: Tory candidate for Batley & Spen: 'We have not shot anyone yet'.
posted by biffa at 3:33 PM on May 29 [3 favorites]


"I just had a vision... my vision for Britain!"

On the opposition side, I haven't quite figured out if Games For The Many is satire or not.
posted by effbot at 3:36 PM on May 29 [2 favorites]


Thanks for this excellent post. I was unfamiliar with the UK's ability to just decide on an early election, and wishes that other countries across the pond also had that choice.
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 3:49 PM on May 29 [2 favorites]


Watching the Tories flail around has been amusing. They're going to win, no doubt, but this is like watching Chelsea getting battered around by some fifth-tier club in the FA Cup. Things are going to suck and the bad guys are going to win, but in the meantime you watch them do everything they can to bollox it up.
posted by dw at 3:52 PM on May 29 [5 favorites]


We have a front runner for most tasteless/least thought out comment of the campaign

Brendan Cox: This was clearly a stupid thing to say but I hope we can all assume the best and put it down to a slip of the tongue rather than any malice.

(I'd rank Farage's "without a single bullet being fired" comment a few orders of magnitude worse, fwiw, but then everything that man does is driven by malice and spite.)
posted by effbot at 3:54 PM on May 29 [7 favorites]


Oh yay, internment. It's just as if British politicians learned absolutely nothing from the Troubles.
posted by doop at 4:01 PM on May 29 [7 favorites]


It's satisfying to see the polls nzrrowing. The incumbent Tories are probably going to win but could always snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
posted by eyeofthetiger at 4:03 PM on May 29 [1 favorite]


Watching the Tories flail around has been amusing.

Yeah, you would have expected them to be at least a little bit prepared for the snap election, but the only thing that seem to have worked this far has been absorbing a large chunk of UKIP voters. Enough for a big Tory majority in parliament (possibly over 100 seats, up from today's 10).

(not that Corbyn is necessarily that unhappy if the result is close to the latest poll averages, he's also competing with his predecessor Miliband and right now he's a couple points ahead, compared to the last election result.)

But ok, there are ten days left so plenty of opportunity for more chaos.

Is there any chance that if the Lib Dems win

Win what? Last time LAB+CON had combined numbers this high was in 1979. LIB will be happy if they get to keep half their MPs.
posted by effbot at 4:20 PM on May 29 [2 favorites]


I am somewhat troubled.

I had a knock on the door here in the Devonian Edinburgh Political Asylum Cottage on Sunday afternoon. 'Probably canvassers', I told my sofa mate as I trundled out to answer it. It was, of course: an old man in a hi-viz tabard, a neat beard and an English accent asked me if I was going to vote Labour. I briefly contemplated a bit of a rant about Labour and unionism and Brexit... but no, just said firmly 'Sorry, SNP here' (in my own English accent), he said something along the lines of fair enough and went down the street.

I returned to the sofa and Sofamate.

"Labour," I said."And it was a Jezza clone, to boot."

We laughed and sighed, and got on with doing not very much on a Sunday afternoon.

Later, we discovered that Corbyn had been in Edinburgh that day, without media. And that my seat was considered a target by the local Labs.

And... was it? I don't know, I can't see faces well.

But there is a fighting chance. And the fun I could have had...
posted by Devonian at 4:21 PM on May 29 [33 favorites]


I was unfamiliar with the UK's ability to just decide on an early election, and wishes that other countries across the pond also had that choice.

It's really not a great thing as it can add a lot to the incumbent's advantage. They not only get the edge that incumbents have but they get to call elections when their opponents show weakness or disarray. As with almost all electoral schemes you can see short range advantages but over the long range every system has its flaws and weaknesses.

The only real penalty is that people really hate elections so calling them too early can piss of the voters.
posted by srboisvert at 4:34 PM on May 29 [3 favorites]


Ironically the last conservative prime minister outlawed the calling of sudden elections but everyone's agreed to forget all about that now.
posted by dng at 4:36 PM on May 29 [9 favorites]


To be clear, the last conservative Prime Minister (or presumably one of the Machiavellian types behind the scenes, rather than the bland enforcers of banal theft from the populace that constitutes the Tory frontline politicians) didn't outlaw the calling of sudden elections.

The effect of the Fixed Term Parliament Act (2011) was to make it possible for the major party in a coalition, or single party of government to call an election at any time (in the knowledge that any opposition party would be suicidal to vote against it), yet if things weren't going well, for the richer party to have the money to run a campaign out for 12-18 months ahead of the fixed term end of the parliament.

It was an act of underappreciated evil genius. And the one clever thing about the 2010-2015 government.
posted by ambrosen at 4:58 PM on May 29 [4 favorites]


wot if... you got the schoolchildren to crew the nuclear subs to earn their school lunches?
posted by indubitable at 5:06 PM on May 29 [4 favorites]


In a Conservative seat that they won from the Lib Dems in 2015, I'd very much like the Lib Dem candidate to get back in, but on the other hand, I can't afford the energy of being out of my armchair. So I've been following the Tory campaign on Twitter, and I can't really believe quite the level of outright dishonesty they come up with. Nothing that's outright false on the level of individual propositions, but put together in sentences and discourse contexts where they're outright lies.

I've been challenging them on a few things, and it seems to get some traction, but I still can't believe how outright unpleasant some people are.
posted by ambrosen at 5:14 PM on May 29 [2 favorites]


This was a far cry from a proper debate (not that I'm a big fan of those either) and the Paxman sections were filled with predictably irate repetition of "are you doing to stop beating your wife? yes or no?"-type questions, many of which seemed to have only tangential relevance to anything at all. This whole circus gets more infuriatingly facile every go round.
posted by Dysk at 5:20 PM on May 29 [2 favorites]


Jeremy Paxman's been a useless pantomime idiot for as long as I can remember now, to be honest.
posted by dng at 5:21 PM on May 29 [4 favorites]


For American readers, the U.K. Elections are the ones so screwed up the Russians aren't even bothering to interfere.
posted by Ghostride The Whip at 5:29 PM on May 29 [29 favorites]


Well, they already won the referendum so there's not really any need to do anything this time round.
posted by dng at 5:30 PM on May 29 [9 favorites]


Kinda serious question here. Is watching The Last Leg enough to keep me up on the election stuff?
posted by johnpowell at 6:16 PM on May 29 [1 favorite]


Putin already has Farage as his Trump.
posted by benzenedream at 6:43 PM on May 29 [2 favorites]


Is there any chance that if the Lib Dems win, that they'd call another referendum on Brexit?

I guess, but my dog has a better chance of becoming the next PM than the Lib Dems have of winning a majority in Parliament
posted by Automocar at 6:50 PM on May 29 [3 favorites]


I have a dream that it comes down to 4 seats and Corbyn manages to convince Sinn Fein to get him over the line and Daily Mail spontaneously combusts in rage.
posted by Damienmce at 7:26 PM on May 29 [33 favorites]




I have a dream that it comes down to 4 seats and Corbyn manages to convince Sinn Fein to get him over the line and Daily Mail spontaneously combusts in rage.

I can see it now...

SINN FEINING DEATH!
Ex-terrorists deny Torys' theoretical triumph and shock everyone by showing up to Westminster and making Red Jeremy the new PM.
posted by Talez at 9:08 PM on May 29 [1 favorite]


I enjoyed May getting jeered and laughed at, not a good look, but suspect the whole thing changed very few people's minds.
posted by knapah at 9:59 PM on May 29 [3 favorites]


Devonian: I was confused; I thought you were voting SNP from Devonshire!
posted by persona au gratin at 12:04 AM on May 30 [2 favorites]


Worryingly, I feel a bit hopeful. I know it's not going to happen, but at least there is some degree of pushback about whether we should actually fund schools, hospitals and the police.
posted by threetwentytwo at 12:20 AM on May 30 [3 favorites]


In terms of changing minds, I think many of my colleagues are (not cruel people, but) don't-rock-the-boat Tories. And I genuinely believe that the modern Conservative party are cruel, so I'm trying to put this cruelty into little "it doesn't have to be this way" anecdotes when our (I work in the NHS) lack of funding comes up.

I've no idea how it comes across. But remember, talk to people. Don't tell them the Tories are wrong. Tell people that things are bad, and leave them to make their own conclusions. I think that's the safest bet.
posted by ambrosen at 12:26 AM on May 30 [4 favorites]


But I'd love to know what everyone else is doing to stave off catastrophe.
posted by ambrosen at 12:27 AM on May 30 [1 favorite]


The U.K. Elections are the ones so screwed up the Russians aren't even bothering to interfere.

LOL and everything, but the last time there was an FPP about UK electoral interference, it was overwhelmed with "yeah, but this isn't Trump, and it's all so parochial".

This probably isn't of strategic importance for Putin, you're right. But as Wordshore pointed out, it's a huge deal for a lot of English people, because it's whether or not England remains somewhere we can live. And Putin has already sewn that seed a year ago, which is why he's less bothered now.

So my message to Americans reading is to sit back and read, and not to interrupt the people who are talking about things that matter to them.
posted by ambrosen at 12:56 AM on May 30 [9 favorites]


Happy to see less furious Corbyn bashing in this thread. The last time around seeing him called out Trump - possibly by non UK mefi test, tbf - made me wonder about quitting UK threads for good.

I'm delighted there's a slightly actually left position to vote for this time around, but I can't escape the sick feeling in my stomach that the Safe Hands element mentioned above, combined with the horrendous treatment of jezza-led labour by the media (frankly, including the Graun) is going to render a drubbing.

My own MP looks to be fairly safe for labour, and was a solid remainer, so there's that at least.
posted by ominous_paws at 1:12 AM on May 30 [7 favorites]


But remember, talk to people.

I'm often resorting to asking people questions, as there's usually a normal biological reaction to automatically answer them. Even if they don't - for example, if the other person is in speech or rant mode - the question may stick in the mind, or re-emerge, at 3am in the morning when they can't sleep.

Questions include:
- How long does it take for you to get an appointment at the doctors nowadays?
- How long did you wait when you were last in A&E?
- How long were you on a waiting list for your operation?
- How does the headteacher feel nowadays about the funding situation in your childrens/grandchildrens school?
- You don't have a problem with the fields nearest to your house being occupied by fracking drills, or used as a run by a fox hunt?
- If we need the colossally expensive Trident for our protection or as a deterrent, why do other countries - let's say other European countries with a lot of money such as Norway and Germany - not try to develop a nuclear weapons program as well?
posted by Wordshore at 1:52 AM on May 30 [7 favorites]


> I'm delighted there's a slightly actually left position to vote for this time around

It seems very surprising to me that there is not more general support for an actual left position, considering the job the right and hard right have been doing in Britain for the last generation or so.
Out here in the antipodes it seems like the UK media (and half his elected party, to be fair) decided he was 'mad old Jeremy' from day one and refuse to consider his policies as workable.
Yet I gather the manifesto elicits popular support.
Who needs some shadowy Russian spam bots when you have a mainstream media and sell out neo-libs to do the dirty work?
Apologies if this comes off as incredibly naive, from somebody so far from ground zero, but it seems terribly disappointing.
posted by bystander at 1:58 AM on May 30 [7 favorites]


But as Wordshore pointed out, it's a huge deal for a lot of English people, because it's whether or not England remains somewhere we can live

The election is across the UK, so there's a lot of Scottish, Welsh, and northern Irish people who are affected too, not to mention all of us foreigners living here. This isn't just about England.
posted by Dysk at 1:58 AM on May 30 [9 favorites]


Among my working class Tory relatives, the dementia tax/ social care plan has gone down like a sack of shit. I still don't think it will be enough to stop them voting for them, but right to buy was a big thing for my parents and the thought of not being able to pass that to their kids is a definite kick in the teeth.

I mentioned on a previous thread that my nephew's school has asked for £30 per child per month to cover basic needs. I asked my parents what they thought about that and their response was that they thought it wasn't that different to when the PTA fundraised when I was at school. I pointed out that that was money for extra stuff - sports and other extra-curriculars, and that it didn't come close to £30 per month because never, ever did we have money spare for that. That this isn't to cover fun stuff, it is to cover pencils and paper. That seemed to get through to them, but probably not enough.

Hadn't seen Wordshore's post above when I started to type this, but yeah. I think the austerity mindset is very, very firmly entrenched at this point. As well as the idea that £80,000 a year doesn't make you rich but minimum wage is tons to live off.
posted by threetwentytwo at 2:05 AM on May 30 [6 favorites]


Sorry to have misphrased that, Dysk. I was intending to address one specific issue, which is how those of us stuck in little England and with the chance to vote and as much as possible stop Theresa May from fucking things up for lots of people who aren't little Englanders.*

So I apologise. I was also assuming Brexit went without saying, because even in my privileged position, it's very rare for me to go more than five minutes without thinking of it in terror and shame.

My intention was to only speak for people who I can speak for rather than to speak only on behalf of the group loudest and most probe to forgetting other people exist, and I apologise. And my irritability comes from the fact that even the most arrogant group in the UK elections get marginalised here.
posted by ambrosen at 2:07 AM on May 30 [1 favorite]


Corbyn has actually done OK, given his sticky wicket. Meanwhile, the Tories have managed to be utterly useless.

Unfortunately, it still looks like 1987, where the Tories 40+% poll rating never budged (IIRC). The only hope Labour have is that the Tories pile up UKIP votes in places that aren’t helpful to them whilst the extra 1 million+ registered voters are all in Lab marginals. That seems highly unlikely, so a Tory majority remains nailed on, unless someone pulls some kind of rabbit out of their hat.

May has done badly, but winning is the tonic that salves all ills: so long as she gets a decent majority the Tory faithful will rally behind her.

As predicted, the Tories are laying into him over the IRA / Hamas etc. Whether the general electorate care that much is unclear, but it’s certainly having some impact. Tories pushing it very hard on Facebook with targetted videos etc.
posted by pharm at 2:17 AM on May 30 [2 favorites]


Alternatively we could be seeing a repeat of 1974. That would be highly amusing.
posted by pharm at 2:20 AM on May 30 [1 favorite]


Also, I think that Theresa May naturally assumed that she would have the upper hand on the security front after last Monday's tragedy. However, the strong and stable stuff was massively undercut straight away by the reminder that May was warned about this in 2015 by a police officer from Manchester. May has been putting us at risk.

[For the avoidance of doubt, this is not me believing any ridiculous conspiracy theories about the timing of the attack. Just the response to it]
posted by threetwentytwo at 2:25 AM on May 30 [1 favorite]


SNP manifesto launch this morning. I'm a little perplexed why it's happening just nine days before polling day, but I have more faith in Nicola Sturgeon than most political party leaders over my lifetime.

I lived in Scotland from 1999 to 2009 on the last stint and my vote always went to SNP (was a member for several years) or Green. It's strange on one level to see the rise of the Conservatives there, but on the other hand not strange - the animosity between SNP and Labour was something to behold in its deep-rooted anger and hatred, and it is very easy to see (I know a few people doing this) folk moving from Labour straight to the Conservatives just to vote for a pro-Union, anti-Independence, anti-SNP ideology.

Still hoping that the UK will eventually break up, but frustrated that this doesn't look likely in the short-term (though the Northern Ireland Brexit-border situation is interesting). England feels lost, slipping away, has been through this decade, to a coalition of libertarian alliances and ideologies. Save yourselves, and run your own affairs for better or worse, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland...
posted by Wordshore at 2:31 AM on May 30


Alternatively we could be seeing a repeat of 1974. That would be highly amusing.

I did have a dream - verging on nightmare - recently that this year turned into a triple General Election year, and we ended up with Boris as PM.

I really need to write an AskMeFi on how the hell I can stop dreaming about UK politics and Boris in his underwear and start dreaming about sharing a hot tub with Lindsay Lohan instead.
posted by Wordshore at 2:36 AM on May 30 [2 favorites]


Maybe the SNP decided to take the time to get their manifesto right instead of rushing out any old rubbish? Say what you want about the SNP, but their recent leadership has been made up of the most effective politicians in the UK.

On the manifesto front it looks like Labour had a set of policies pretty much costed and ready to go already in place whilst the Tories were caught on the hop and chucked something together without road testing it first. Given that they were the ones to call the election this seems insane, which is why quite a lot of the electorate have decided that maybe May isn’t such a strong and stable leader after all.
posted by pharm at 2:38 AM on May 30 [1 favorite]


While the odds may have tightened, you're still looking at 8:1 contra 1:12. The polls don't look especially close still, either. I'm not looking forward to this vote.
posted by Dysk at 2:57 AM on May 30 [1 favorite]


Could we say that contrary to expectation, and from a very low base, Corbyn has nevertheless acquired a bit of momentum?

Metafilter: Worryingly, I feel a bit hopeful.
posted by Segundus at 3:08 AM on May 30 [7 favorites]


Yeah, it's been refreshing to see pretty competent campaigning from Labour overall, and the Tory shambles. It makes a lovely change from recent times.
posted by Dysk at 3:11 AM on May 30 [3 favorites]


Is there any chance that if the Lib Dems win, that they'd call another referendum on Brexit? Or is the UK too far down the path of no return?

It's depressingly far gone. Witness the audience last night, who gave May pretty much her only applause when she said "BREXIT OR BUST LET'S BE BREXITING!"

The only way out now is for a) the deal to become clear and to be shocking. b) the real border-closing flight-stopping trade-decimating consequences of No Deal to be properly spelled out to the country, c) a final vote/referendum on "do you want this deal?", d) there to be enough sane people left among the "WE SHOULD HAVE LEFT IMMEDIATELY SOD THAT EUROPE" horde.

Of course, the 2-odd years this is going to take out will do massive damage anyway; the City is already upping sticks, pan-EU supply chains are being redesigned etc etc.
posted by bonaldi at 3:11 AM on May 30 [5 favorites]


It's depressingly far gone. Witness the audience last night, who gave May pretty much her only applause when she said "BREXIT OR BUST LET'S BE BREXITING!"

True enough, although the bloke who tried to get a standing ovation going & found himself in a crowd of 1 was amusing.

May is entirely uninspiring to anyone except the Brexit true believers apparently.
posted by pharm at 3:21 AM on May 30 [1 favorite]


Talking about true believers, some pollster finally got around to ask the really important question: Theresa May voted 'most like Jesus' in oddest survey of the 2017 general election.
posted by effbot at 3:26 AM on May 30


Oh dear. Corbyn’s performance on Woman’s Hour this morning appears to be more like what the Tories were expecting from the leader’s interviews last night. Emma Barnett has chopped him up into little pieces.

It’s /generally/ thought to be a good idea to know the cost of the policy you’re announcing that day. Reporters are bound to ask about it after all.

This exchange is just excruciating.

Just when you think Corbyn has scaled to the dizzy heights of basic political competence it all comes crashing down again. Argh.
posted by pharm at 3:29 AM on May 30 [5 favorites]


Yeah, that is bad, but at the same time, would it have been such a problem to let him look up the figure? It seems like something of a manufactured controversy. It doesn't look good though.
posted by Dysk at 3:36 AM on May 30 [3 favorites]


It was today’s big policy launch! Surely there was a briefing paper with all this stuff on it. Urgh.
posted by pharm at 3:46 AM on May 30


Oh well, I suppose it’s a small blessing that he didn’t stand randomly guessing at numbers like Diane Abbott did.
posted by pharm at 3:49 AM on May 30


Partially as I somehow forgot to mention the Wessex Regionalists in this one, have started putting together an FPP for the election, either for election day or shortly before. I'll have a chat with Uncle Cortex about when it's best to launch this.
posted by Wordshore at 3:50 AM on May 30 [2 favorites]


The U.K. Elections are the ones so screwed up the Russians aren't even bothering to interfere.

Still seeing a lot of Twitter accounts along the lines of "tom529632592" tweeting pro-Tory, pro-Brexit, pro-Trump, Islamophobic, and anti-Corbyn memes. They're quite active in the comment sections of prominent UK politics tweeters. Sure, these accounts could be legit but ...
posted by kariebookish at 4:07 AM on May 30 [4 favorites]


Yeah, he should have had the number to hand, but there actually is a number, unlike most of the Tory manifesto. And where they gave numbers, they don't make sense!

The tory pledge to put £4bn into schools is based on nonsensical savings from scrapping universal infant free school meals and introducing universal primary school breakfasts. Estimates suggest they are at least three times out in the cost they mentioned in a press release, so where will the savings come from? Yet nobody in the media cares.
posted by knapah at 4:20 AM on May 30 [8 favorites]


Yeah, he should have had the number to hand, but there actually is a number, unlike most of the Tory manifesto. And where they gave numbers, they don't make sense!

And honestly, the numbers themselves don't matter as long as they work. How is the public supposed to know whether (say) 30 million is the right answer, or 27 million is? As long as you can give a reasonable answer to where that money is coming from and how it's going to work (unlike providing breakfast for 6p or however much the stupid Tory thing was).

The mums I know who use- who rely on- the Sure Start centres round here have been warned to expect wholesale closures and that they should be prepared to "make other plans". This is inner-city Manchester. This is without mentioning the chaos of the Tories current childcare strategy which has caused a massive funding gap for nurseries and childminders.
posted by threetwentytwo at 4:53 AM on May 30 [2 favorites]


Still seeing a lot of Twitter accounts along the lines of "tom529632592" tweeting pro-Tory, pro-Brexit, pro-Trump, Islamophobic, and anti-Corbyn memes. They're quite active in the comment sections of prominent UK politics tweeters. Sure, these accounts could be legit but ...

Yeah, I've been seeing these on and off for months. First one makes a point roughly germaine to the tweet it's replying to, then a load more pile in agreeing with it and each other, never actually mentioning the subject at hand or reacting to any of the users with usernames that don't fit that pattern. Really quick and apparently effective way to disrupt a conversation and create a false sense of consensus around an issue. I've only ever seen them make pro-Brexit and -Tory arguments, popping up to contradict left wing/remain points.

I assume they come from the same bot farm as this set of anti-GMO bots that all tweeted the same weird message a little while ago.
posted by metaBugs at 5:22 AM on May 30 [4 favorites]


The stronger Labour look, the better it is for the SNP - whose major threat this time around is disaffected Labour voters going Tory as the default unionist/Brexit party. (Independence-minded mainstream Labour voters have by now long since moved their allegiance to the SNP.) There's a sort-of dare-not-speak-its-name Lab/Tory pact about this north of the border, which sometimes breaks out into the open with embarrassing results.

An enormous amount will come down to which demographics vote. Hard to organise a good GOTV for younger voters in a snap election, while the older and thoroughly reactionary cadre just love dragging the country back to the imaginary imperialism theyve been told they can have.
posted by Devonian at 5:27 AM on May 30


Alternatively we could be seeing a repeat of 1974. That would be highly amusing.

Four terms of Tory rule after Labour implodes sounds like a riot.
posted by Talez at 6:02 AM on May 30


I am also heartened by the Labour rise in the polls, just as a point of reassurance that selfishness, arrogance, and small-mindedness don't always prevail and that empty rhetoric does not always go unquestioned.

But the idea that this will have a real impact in terms of seats (and the balance of power) is sadly mistaken. With constituency boundaries the way they are, and with first-past-the-post, even if all the newly registered younger voters turn out (and I really hope and expect them to) the absolute best we can hope for is a slimmer Conservative majority rather than a thundering Conservative landslide.
posted by melisande at 7:01 AM on May 30


Of course, the 2-odd years this is going to take out will do massive damage anyway; the City is already upping sticks, pan-EU supply chains are being redesigned etc etc.

Europeans are leaving too. And this is being celebrated by the Home Office, not understanding that without a change in immigration policy this means that people do not actually want to be in this country.

I think Brexit is so far gone that for the first time my wife and I are making plans to leave. You can only go to your local supermarket so many times and see almost everyone blithely pick up their daily copy of the best-selling newspaper with MIGRANTS GO HOME! or some equivalent across the front pages.

The company I work for decided to greatly expand their European offices this past year. This didn't include Britain. Such things don't make the papers. I came to Britain by relocating a US-based group here and then hiring Brits. They'll keep their jobs but the group will grow elsewhere in Europe now. So this migrant will take the jobs he created and the taxes he pays and move elsewhere. My brilliant wife, who speaks five languages and whose command of English is far greater than most native-born speakers (including myself) deserves to be somewhere where she is welcomed not just 'allowed' to be there.

My district has bounced between Labour and Tory. We have a Tory MP right now. I'm tactically voting Labour as really I'll do anything that weakens the Tories, a selfish backward-looking party who are truly destroying a great country.
posted by vacapinta at 7:26 AM on May 30 [23 favorites]


Alternatively we could be seeing a repeat of 1974. That would be highly amusing.

On twitter last night the writer, and Labour supporter, Robert Harris brought up the 74 election that Heath called on the back of an clear lead in the opinion polls but went on to lose to Labour following a lack-luster campaign and a terrible manifesto.

Man it's the hope that gets you.
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 8:42 AM on May 30 [6 favorites]


I am also heartened by the Labour rise in the polls

Problem is that the Tory rise started in July 2016. Last year around this time, the parties were much much closer than they are today... (back then people used to wonder why the heck Corbyn was still polling behind, when Miliband had been ahead most of the time in opposition.)

In other news, I see that part of Twitter is busy hurling abuse at Emma Barnett. Everything from angry men ranting about how they will never listen to Woman's Hour again, to the usual crop of antisemites.
posted by effbot at 9:44 AM on May 30 [1 favorite]


I am getting a bit tired of interviewers trying to catch out politicians with questions about numbers they are supposed to have memorised, though. It's too much like O-level Geography.
posted by Grangousier at 10:43 AM on May 30 [4 favorites]


And if the Tories are going to win, I want them to be left with exactly the same majority they have now. Maybe even down one. All that kerfuffle to go precisely nowhere.
posted by Grangousier at 10:54 AM on May 30 [3 favorites]


This just in, another game for the people, by the people: CorbynRun.

Only played a bit, but seems the plot is to steal money from conservatives (I guess the idea is that they stole them from someone else, otherwise it's really weird) and launch pledges to build a movement, and after a while "Teresa Mayhem" and other tory politicians show up and throws things at you.
posted by effbot at 11:23 AM on May 30 [1 favorite]


Latest YouGov poll suggests that Tories are currently running at 16 seats short of a majority.

It’s happening.gif

Man it's the hope that gets you.

It’s time for “It’s not the despair Laura, I can stand the despair: it’s the *hope*” again isn’t it?
posted by pharm at 2:30 PM on May 30 [2 favorites]


YouGov seat-by-seat projection for The Times has the Cons 16 seats short of an overall majority. Huh.
posted by Catseye at 2:31 PM on May 30


So not long after the election was called, I was in a cafe listening to two finance people at the next table talking finance things. (They were loud. I am nosy.) Expensive suits, lots of "oh just call so-and-so at [big investment place even I've heard of]," etc. And then one of them mentioned the election, and they started talking about how the Conservatives were over, "they're fucking up everything," it'll have to be the Lib Dems now. Oh and by the way has so-and-so introduced you to [local Lib Dem politician]?

I don't think the LibDems are going to do massively well out of this election. We probably won't see the "shy Tory" vote become a "shy Lib Dem" vote. Not yet. But I am no longer surprised that the Conservatives aren't doing as well in this campaign as they'd planned, and I don't think it's just Corbyn they have to worry about.
posted by Catseye at 2:43 PM on May 30


Although it's very bad form to quote something that one has, oneself, posted to Facebook, but it sums up the way I feel at the moment, and if I just posted it without mentioning that I'd feel fraudulent somehow:
Although it would still be surprising if the Tories didn’t win, I’m very much enjoying watching them humiliate themselves in public. They’re useless, and we know they’re useless and they know we know they’re useless and we know they know we know they’re useless. I love the smell of flop sweat in the morning. It smells like victory.

It isn’t victory, of course, but we take our pleasures where we can.
posted by Grangousier at 2:48 PM on May 30


YouGov's seat projections were way off last election (scroll down a bit to see the seats). But they know that too, of course, so guess we'll find out if they've managed to fix their models in a little over a week from now...
posted by effbot at 3:00 PM on May 30


I'm confused by how that poll is handling the Northern Ireland seats - it looks weird. Can anyone make sense of it? I'm guessing they're lumped together because the sampling didn't include NI (not a massive surprise given how often it's ignored...), but then, surely the Sinn Féin seats will make a difference? And 8 -> 18?
posted by Catseye at 3:10 PM on May 30


Someone has been spray painting STRONG AND STABLE BOLLOX over the conservative posters round here the last couple of days, which has been keeping me mildly amused.
posted by dng at 4:32 PM on May 30 [3 favorites]


This was the model YouGov used to (accurately) predict Brexit so OH GOD IT'S THE HOPE THAT GETS YOU
posted by bonaldi at 5:20 PM on May 30 [3 favorites]


The conservatives will then stop any coalition being formed, declaring "no government is better than a bad government" to great applause from the masses.
posted by dng at 5:24 PM on May 30 [1 favorite]


If those are close to the final result, then what coalition is even possible?

Con+LibDem+others - impossible, with LD being pro-Europe and the history of the last coalition
Lab+LibDem+SNP - impossible, with Labour hating the SNP in Biblical measure
Con+Lab in 'national unity' move a la WWII - now you're having a giraffe

A Con minority gov might function for a while, but that completely scuppers the Brexit negotiations, so there'll have to be another General Election following Thazza's resignation and an almighty dogfight among the Tories.

Of course, it's just one prediction (not even a poll) and I very much doubt the Tories will lose their majority. But an entertaining distraction nonetheless, and I'll happily take the pleasures of fantasising about that happening to the godawful bunch of loons who've dragged the country into a miserable swamp.
posted by Devonian at 5:48 PM on May 30 [1 favorite]


UK Polling Report has two more polls showing 6 point and 12 point leads for the Conservatives. Weightings are making a huge differnce though:
...one really huge difference is turnout. Weighted with all its normal demographic and political weights, ICM would have shown a Tory lead of only 3 points – that was transformed into a lead of 11 points by the turnout model, which predicts how likely respondents are to vote based on the estimates of turnout by age and class at the last election.
If anyone else is tormented by traces of hope, you can still donate to Labour, the Lib Dems or the Greens.
posted by TheophileEscargot at 9:27 PM on May 30 [1 favorite]


The so-called newspapers here are terrified of Corbyn. They're pulling out all their migrant/terrorism scare tactics on him.

Today's Daily Mail headline: Labour's plan to open doors to Britain even wider

Telegraph top headline: Corbyn accused of honouring Palestinian terror chief

From kiosko
posted by vacapinta at 10:01 PM on May 30


effbot: " Theresa May voted 'most like Jesus' in oddest survey of the 2017 general election."

Surely it's Corbyn, based on beard alone.
posted by Chrysostom at 11:14 PM on May 30


"The stop-hitting-yourself school of journalism says, ‘you are the butt of our jokes and the target of our relentless attacks, how do you explain yourself?’"
posted by TheophileEscargot at 11:15 PM on May 30


This was the model YouGov used to (accurately) predict Brexit so OH GOD IT'S THE HOPE THAT GETS YOU

Brexit wasn't first past the post, though, so I'm not sure how that even makes sense. If you drop their latest voting intention percentages into other seat predictors, you don't get even remotely similar results, so there has to be some rather large non-uniform swings in their model. Does anyone know if they've published a list of what seats they assume will flip?
posted by effbot at 1:26 AM on May 31


Ok, they've posted a bit more info. I especially liked the bits where they explain how they're inferring information from sample sets too small to contain meaningful data, so it's important to understand the limitations of their new model and that readers should focus on the confidence intervals, because that's surely what people who write the front-page headlines and the twitterati are really good at :-)
posted by effbot at 2:46 AM on May 31


She's toast. Just checking in on the Express and Mail and not only are they using photographs of her looking terrible with her mouth agape, but the commenters are turning on her too. Hubris seems to be a terrible ally for the British electorate.
posted by davemee at 3:46 AM on May 31


Interesting that YouGov are saying their model got the Brexit vote right. Didn't they predict a Remain win? So they're saying that their more traditional polling got it wrong there, but this model was consistently more reliable, and that's why they've decided to go with it now?

That said, even if this is right I think the Conservative vote-share will go up as wavering voters get worried about a hung parliament. Wonder if we'll see an increasingly panicky CCHQ decide to use it? On the one hand, it's a great plug for Strong And Stable - on the other, if you're saying it out loud...
posted by Catseye at 3:49 AM on May 31


If those are close to the final result, then what coalition is even possible?

There isn’t one is there? Oh God, we’re going to be the laughing stock of Europe if this is the outcome. Even the Italians will be able to point and laugh.

The only stable outcome would be some kind of coalition of national unity for the duration of the Brexit negotiation, but the idea that either the Tories or Labour would manage to bury hatchet anywhere but in each other’s backs seems impossible.

Argh.
posted by pharm at 4:01 AM on May 31


Ooooh, Corbyn's doing the TV debate tonight.
posted by Catseye at 4:16 AM on May 31 [4 favorites]


Your move, Stable Mabel...
posted by Devonian at 5:06 AM on May 31 [1 favorite]


BBC:

A Conservative spokesman said: “There are no changes to the Prime Minister’s plans.

"She is out campaigning today, engaging with voters about the issues that matter, not swapping sound bites with six other politicians."

A Conservative source added: “The public want to see a leader who can stare down the EU-27 at the negotiation table, not someone who will need their iPad to remember their dodgy facts in a debate."


Still Amber Rudd, then.
posted by Catseye at 5:28 AM on May 31




Also good stuff on polls from Douglas Alexander ("Polls don't just reflect but shape a campaign. I offer this advice as the guy the 2015 polls said would be the next Foreign Secy.")
posted by Catseye at 6:16 AM on May 31


Still Amber Rudd, then.

I can honestly say that Amber "Necessary Hashtags" Rudd* is the last person I'd want to be repping me in a campaign crisis.

*ring* *ring*

AMBER: Hey babes!
MAY: Shut up Amber. You ready?
AMBER: Ready?
MAY: For tonight?
AMBER: Tonight?
MAY: The debate
AMBER: Debate?
MAY: Amber, I'm going to say this very slowly so you'll understand: If you fuck this up, I'm going to gut you with a spoon.


*"The best people who understand the technology, who understand the necessary hashtags to stop this stuff ever being put up, not just taken down, but ever being put up in the first place are going to be [state security services].” - Amber Rudd, whilst attempting to milk the Westminster attack as an opportunity to cripple internet encryption. source: huffpo
posted by garius at 6:57 AM on May 31 [4 favorites]


In other TV politics news, the Guardian has tracked down the "bollocks, that's bollocks" man.
posted by Catseye at 7:15 AM on May 31 [3 favorites]


Ah, it's cool gang.

Apparently May can't go, because she's going to be thinking about Brexit negotiations tonight.
posted by garius at 7:23 AM on May 31 [2 favorites]


Oh dear. Well, I hope for Amber Rudd's sake that someone's given her a better line than that to use tonight.
posted by Catseye at 7:33 AM on May 31 [1 favorite]


I'm glad to hear from the "bollocks, that's bollocks" guy! We happened to be in the pub while they had the debate on Sky with the volume turned too low for us to hear, and we had no trouble reading that guy's lips. It was fascinating to see the questions on the screen, without sound, and only the body language to go by. Watching it later, turns out we'd read the room absolutely right. And now I am in the tortured by faint hope camp.
posted by skybluepink at 7:49 AM on May 31 [2 favorites]


If we need the colossally expensive Trident for our protection or as a deterrent, why do other countries - let's say other European countries with a lot of money such as Norway and Germany - not try to develop a nuclear weapons program as well?

Certainly an interesting question to ask, although I don't know if the answer is going to be particularly satisfying—at least in part, the reluctance probably has to do with the existence of Trident making it unnecessary, plus substantial US pressure in the postwar era to discourage other states from pursuing independent weapons programs. (Both Norway and Sweden were discouraged by the US from pursuing their own programs in favor of other avenues, the Germans were prohibited by the Paris Treaties, etc.) The existence of the British arsenal presumably loomed large in discussions that might have otherwise run awkwardly aground on the lack of credibility in a solely US-based "second strike" defense — after all, why would the US launch ICBMs, and presumably invite its own destruction, to avenge a fait accompli in Europe? Trident is at least controlled by someone with some skin in the game.

That said: whether the ongoing cost of Trident to the UK is worthwhile, as much to prevent hypothetical weapons programs on the continent as external deterrence, is a valid question I'd hope voters consider. Though, domestic politics within the UK aside, it seems, viewed externally, that if UK disarmament were going to occur, it would have happened during the halcyon days of the pax Americana post-1989; trying for it during what is (hopefully) the nadir of US credibility in decades seems... ambitious.
posted by Kadin2048 at 9:38 AM on May 31 [4 favorites]


Lie back and think of Brexit.
posted by vbfg at 10:54 AM on May 31


Wow, the debate is just awful. I don't know if I'll make it through the whole thing.
posted by Dysk at 12:08 PM on May 31


I'm watching it with a very large glass of wine. It sort of helps?
posted by Catseye at 12:18 PM on May 31 [1 favorite]


Oh I don't know. Amber Rudd is playing it for laughs. "Judge us on our record" she said. The audience thought it was funny.
posted by antiwiggle at 12:18 PM on May 31 [4 favorites]


This is the first live TV I've watched in 3 years*. It's surprisingly bearable. Definitely in a good mood because of the Tory implosion.

*If it were 3 years ago, I'd have turned up to heckle Theresa May today, because I worked opposite the factory she was in at the time.
posted by ambrosen at 12:34 PM on May 31


"Here's a question on climate change. Let's make the answers quick so we can get on to something more important." (paraphrase)

Sigh
posted by dng at 12:41 PM on May 31 [1 favorite]


YouGov poll tonight puts the Conservative lead at 3 points, ICM at 12 points. Pollsters: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I still think the Conservatives are going to win this and win with an increased majority (about 20-30 seats?). But oh, to be a fly on the wall at CCHQ this week...
posted by Catseye at 3:24 PM on May 31 [1 favorite]


Memo to CCHQ: when setting up regional offices for the election, don't forget to check the neighbours living downstairs...
posted by Devonian at 3:33 PM on May 31 [10 favorites]


It's so bizarre. I mean, the turnaround's not inconceivable, but then I sound out colleagues and they're clearly perfectly fine with the "known quantity" that makes up the Tories. It's unfathomable to me.
posted by ambrosen at 3:34 PM on May 31


Memo to CCHQ: when setting up regional offices for the election, don't forget to check the neighbours living downstairs...

You don't expect them to be at street level with the peons, do you?
posted by Talez at 3:48 PM on May 31


"The Prime Minister cannot be bothered, so why should you? In fact, Bake Off is on next, use the time to make yourself a brew."
posted by MattWPBS at 4:16 PM on May 31 [2 favorites]


Latest Tory poll leads:
YouGov: 3pt
Survation: 6pt
Kantar: 10pt
FT poll of polls: 9pt
ICM: 12pt
ComRes: 12pt
Panelbase: 15pt
...well, I guess they're avoiding the herding problem, anyway.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:49 PM on May 31 [3 favorites]


I believe the difference between the polls is almost entirely down to differences in the turnout models the various pollsters are using. The actual weighted survey responses are almost identical.
posted by pharm at 12:58 AM on June 1


Everything from angry men ranting about how they will never listen to Woman's Hour again, to the usual crop of antisemites.

Just 13% of British Jews are expected to vote Labour. As David Schraub points out, that's the same percentage as American Muslims who voted for Trump.
posted by Joe in Australia at 4:31 AM on June 1


Meanwhile, worrying times for Farage...
posted by Wordshore at 4:56 AM on June 1


In context though, even in 2015 when Labour actually had a Jewish leader, only 18% in the same survey said they would vote Labour. The respondents in those Jewish Chronicle surveys have always been overwhelmingly Conservative-leaning.
posted by TheophileEscargot at 5:31 AM on June 1 [2 favorites]


Magic Money Tree (based on this)
posted by goodnewsfortheinsane at 6:19 AM on June 1 [1 favorite]


In context though, even in 2015 when Labour actually had a Jewish leader, only 18% in the same survey said they would vote Labour

I don't see how that makes things any better for Labour generally, although I suppose it makes Corbyn look less worse. It's a Labour problem, not one attributable to a single person. Antisemitic attacks like the one mentioned above have become totally unexceptional, which is why I think the comparison with Muslim voters in the USA is enlightening.
posted by Joe in Australia at 6:34 AM on June 1


It's not just Labour. The same surveys also ask about Israeli politics, and again they strongly favour the right-wing Likud party. Assuming their survey sample accurately represents "British Jews", then "British Jews" are overwhelmingly right-wing.

Given that UK polls have problems getting representative samples even of the general population, and there's an extra level of difficulty in defining and identifying who's Jewish, that could be pretty big assumption of course.
posted by TheophileEscargot at 7:07 AM on June 1 [1 favorite]


The pollsters’ experimental election:
Why are polls showing such a wide range in the election campaign?

...For once, however, the difference in the polls in this election is easy to understand – it is almost wholly to do with how pollsters treat turnout.

The reason the polls got the 2015 election wrong was down to sampling, particularly among young people. The sort of young people who took part in polls were too engaged and too likely to vote, meaning polls ended up with too many young people voting. Polling companies have taken different approaches to solving this, but they broadly fall into two categories. Some have tried to improve their samples to reduce the number of people who are very interested in politics. Others have changed their turnout models so that they assume the same low level of turnout among young people as happened in 2015.

Generally speaking, the polls that continue to show a large Conservative lead are those who are basing their turnout models on the pattern of turnout in 2015. Those that show smaller leads are basing turnout on how likely people say they are to vote.

...Looking at estimates from past elections from the House of Commons library, in 2015 the turnout gap between young and old was 35 points, in 2010 it was 23 points, in 2005 it was 36 points. In other words, we’re showing a smaller gap than in 2015, but similar to 2010 and not one that we think is totally unrealistic if Jeremy Corbyn has enthused younger people.

...As the polls currently stand we are headed for one of two election results. It’s possible that, come Election Day, all that young enthusiasm for Jeremy Corbyn will translate into real votes, leading to a close election with perhaps a small Tory majority or even a hung Parliament. In that case, our figures will end up about right and, assuming that turnout patterns will be the same in 2017 as they were in 2015 will have caused some other pollsters to miss the real story.

The alternative is that all those young Corbynistas will prove a mirage and that some polls still contain too many of the sort of young people who vote, with the end result being that the Conservatives win a large or landslide majority.
posted by TheophileEscargot at 3:11 PM on June 1 [1 favorite]


Over in the revolving apocalypse thread, I realised that this American Paris farago leaves Thazza with serious problems. The whole world, UK included, is horrified - but she's been cuddling up to the US and even trying to do their work behind the scenes on reducing climate change commitments.

A swift 'do you agree with him? Would you take the UK out of Paris?' and - what would she say? She's got the political skills of a stoned koala when it comes to reacting on her feet, and any hint that she'd follow Cheeto Benito down the path of madness could do a lot to get the young 'uns out of their bubble and down the polls.
posted by Devonian at 3:47 PM on June 1 [3 favorites]


A swift 'do you agree with him? Would you take the UK out of Paris?' and - what would she say?

it begins
posted by indubitable at 5:33 PM on June 1 [2 favorites]


I'm surprised and pleased to see that Corbyn is pro-Accord, given that he's anti-Remain.
posted by Joe in Australia at 10:15 PM on June 1 [1 favorite]


He likes the new Civic, too.
posted by Chrysostom at 10:30 PM on June 1 [5 favorites]


Meanwhile in Scotland: STV reporting informal arrangement by Lab, Con and LibDems to unseat SNP in key seats by fielding 'paper candidates'. It's almost like a progressive alliance! Except not progressive. This coming not long after Scottish Labour councillors in Aberdeen got formally suspended from the party for agreeing a coalition deal with the Conservatives, after the SNP won with a minority.

Potentially good news in the event of a hung parliament, though? Turns out Labour can indeed work with the Conservatives if there's another left-of-centre party out there to go all People's Front of Judea on.
posted by Catseye at 1:03 AM on June 2


An acquaintance on FB who is/was a Labour member (and a fairly politically active one at that, IIRC) hates Corbyn so much he's considering "punishment voting" Tory. The mind boggles.
posted by EndsOfInvention at 2:35 AM on June 2 [3 favorites]


CPS just announced: Election expenses charges for Tory MP (Thanet South), his agent, and another Tory official.
posted by Catseye at 3:03 AM on June 2 [2 favorites]


Guardian story on the charges. Tory HQ are standing by him at the moment.
posted by MattWPBS at 3:08 AM on June 2


Conservatives seem to be floating Ben Gummer as a post election Brexit Secretary via The Times. He was highly pro-Remain in the referendum, and UKIP are starting to throw a fit alongside coverage on South Thanet (the prosecuted Tory's seat) now being Labour vs UKIP.

Can see this reducing the switch of UKIP voters to Conservatives if it runs heavy in the media. Starting to feel like the Tories may be overplaying their hand.
posted by MattWPBS at 5:16 AM on June 2


@pixelatedboat:
Issue: Should we teleport a gigantic psychic squid into the heart of New York, killing millions?

Corbyn: What?

May: I did it thirty-five minutes ago
posted by Rustic Etruscan at 6:11 AM on June 2 [5 favorites]


An acquaintance on FB who is/was a Labour member (and a fairly politically active one at that, IIRC) hates Corbyn so much he's considering "punishment voting" Tory. The mind boggles.

It's funny that some of the centrists who have always chided recalcitrant leftists to support the party as the best realistic option have suddenly discovered the value of political disloyalty now that one of those recalcitrant leftists is in charge.
posted by Rustic Etruscan at 6:59 AM on June 2 [7 favorites]




suddenly discovered

My favourite thing right now is how May's campaign performances have turned into a variant of A Compilation of Robots Falling Down, but a close second is all the people who have spent two years arguing that "the polls are definitely wrong" have suddenly discovered that "the polls are definitely right" (or the other way around, depending on your political preferences).

(As for the polls, at least YouGov have sobered up enough that they've added confidence intervals to their graphs :-)
posted by effbot at 7:33 AM on June 2


I'm surprised and pleased to see that Corbyn is pro-Accord, given that he's anti-Remain.

I can't work out why this would surprise anyone with a reasonably fleshed out picture of Corbyn's motivations. Literally, I don't see why the two issues would be correlated. And calling Corbyn anti-remain seems to lack nuance, too. I suspect that the reasons he failed to be adequately pro-Europe in the referendum were wonkish worries about the levels of competition it enforces rather than the parochialism that plagues the leave campaign.
posted by ambrosen at 7:33 AM on June 2 [1 favorite]


I'm still not going to vote Lib Dem, but if they keep up their policy of targeting estate agents with stupid stunts I may reconsider this...
posted by Devonian at 7:35 AM on June 2 [2 favorites]


Conservatives seem to be floating Ben Gummer as a post election Brexit Secretary

This seems like such an obviously bad move on their part that there must be a grand master plan behind it, right? Right? (Then again, many of us thought that about making Boris foreign sec...)

Maybe they're just communicating with Lynton Crosby via a really bad phone line. ("Whatever you do, [static static static] reactivate Nigel Farage!") Or maybe he's not actually the Machiavellian super-genius we've all been led to expect after all...
posted by Catseye at 7:38 AM on June 2 [1 favorite]


My favourite thing right now is how May's campaign performances have turned into a variant of A Compilation of Robots Falling Down yt , but a close second is all the people who have spent two years arguing that "the polls are definitely wrong" have suddenly discovered that "the polls are definitely right" (or the other way around, depending on your political preferences).

(As for the polls, at least YouGov have sobered up enough that they've added confidence intervals to their graphs :-)


It's good to temper our optimism and continue to fight to win a better world for ordinary people of all kinds.
posted by Rustic Etruscan at 7:42 AM on June 2 [2 favorites]


This seems like such an obviously bad move on their part that there must be a grand master plan behind it, right? Right? (Then again, many of us thought that about making Boris foreign sec...)

I think it must be a work experience kid called Barry with sarcasm-blindness. They just seem to have got very blase about suggesting things they have to know will go down badly with various elements of their base.

Barry: "Hey, you know how a lot of our voters are elderly middle Englanders who own their homes, and how we've always made a big thing of attacking inheritance tax?"
Lynton: "Yes... Go on."
Barry: "What about if we had a policy that we'd take everything over £100k, including the family house, from them if they have to go into social care?"
Lynton: "That sounds like a really good idea."

Next thing you know, it's in the manifesto.
posted by MattWPBS at 8:02 AM on June 2 [1 favorite]




Ipsos Mori has a poll with LAB in the lead by 3% (cutting out the don't knows)
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 8:43 AM on June 2


Actual weighting Ipsos Mori poll result: Tory 45%, Labour 40%, LD 7%. Be still my beating heart.

If Corbyn actually pulls this off I will happily eat crow. I really did not think that people would vote for him in sufficient numbers, but in a campaign where a) The Tories seem determined to shoot their own feet off and b) the Labour campaign has (for the most part) been a paragon of competence by comparison, he’s doing far better than I expected.

God knows what’s going to happen if we get a hung parliament though. We’re going to able to hear the eye-rolling from the EU from across the channel.
posted by pharm at 9:06 AM on June 2 [1 favorite]


That should be weighted (by apportioning don’t knows to T/L/LD), not weighting. Sigh.

Meanwhile, watching the right wing headbangers go off the deep-end on certain websites as the polls steadily move against them is deeply entertaining. It still looks like a T. majority is nailed on, but suddenly it isn’t anywhere near as certain as it was & the polls are moving in the wrong direction.
posted by pharm at 9:15 AM on June 2


Barring a Lab-Tory alliance, which would be such a bizarre animal it would defy exobiologists - a hung parliament would lead to another election in short order, as nobody would be able to form a government.

As I said earlier, there is no plausible combination of parties that makes any sort of sense in the context of Brexit. Even if Labour could overcome its tribal loathing of the SNP (which would be happy to work with Labour), and even if Lab+SNP was a majority without the Lib Dems, such an alliance would have to negotiate with Brussels from a position of not really wanting Brexit at all - I mean, that would be fine by me, but it would reignite UKIP and damage Labour hugely. That goes double if it has to be a Lab/LibDem/SNP deal. Labour would far rather go back for another election, thinking that May's failure to win would just add to their momentum. "The people have rejected the Tories, now let us govern' is a pretty good slogan.

What happens after that?

Fuck. Only, Knows.
posted by Devonian at 9:22 AM on June 2


And on the radio just now, where 'hung parliament' is now a fit subject for discussion, Nicola Sturgeon said that the SNP would be happy to work in a progressive alliance on a case by case basis, not in formal coalition; Kezia Dugdale, Scottish Labour leader, said in response that since the SNP's not progressive they can fuck right off. (I paraphrase, but only a bit.)

QED.
posted by Devonian at 9:42 AM on June 2 [1 favorite]


So apparently in the betting markets for the Brexit poll there were was more money on Remain so the odds favoured Remain but there were more actual (but obviously smaller) bets on Leave... and with Clinton vs Trump again more money on Clinton but a greater number of bets on Trump. And this time around there's a big lump of cash on the Tories but much more smaller bets on Labour. Could it actually happen again...?!
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 10:36 AM on June 2


The Guardian as come out firmly for Labour (plus tactical voting against the Tories)
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 10:45 AM on June 2 [1 favorite]


I'm living in a seat that could go either Lib Dem or SNP, and GOOD LORD the mountains of leaflets we've had. I could wallpaper my house with this if I fancied a bar-chart decor theme. Only a couple of flyers from Labour and just one from the Conservatives, though - it's like a weird little election microclimate here.
posted by Catseye at 11:14 AM on June 2 [1 favorite]


Yeah, I’m in a Lib / Tory marginal Catseye & we’re receiving party literature on a daily basis.
posted by pharm at 11:17 AM on June 2


My seat is SNP, but for some reason Labour thinks its in with a chance (10 percent margin for SNP last time). Quite a lot from the Tories too - I couldn't quite redecorate the house, but I have no need to buy toilet paper for a while.
posted by Devonian at 11:52 AM on June 2 [1 favorite]


Vice: This Election Is Blowing Up in the Tories' Faces

Meanwhile, the new Labour video by Ken Loach is AMAZING.
posted by Cash4Lead at 11:52 AM on June 2 [7 favorites]


The Guardian as come out firmly for Labour (plus tactical voting against the Tories)

About bloody time.
posted by mushhushshu at 12:24 PM on June 2 [1 favorite]


My constituency has a 24k Labour majority - it was one of the few in the 2015 election where the Labour majority increased. I have received a single leaflet from the incumbent Labour MP and nothing from anyone else.
posted by knapah at 3:07 AM on June 3


I just saw an argument from a Leftist Remainer that he doesn't want Labour to win because he is afraid they will follow through with Brexit and destroy the Left. That is, the Tory narrative would be "See! If we had won we wouldn't have made a mess of Brexit." He wants the Tories to own the Brexit disaster and not pass it on.

This is a very complicated election. I may just vote my conscience and vote Green...
posted by vacapinta at 3:19 AM on June 3


He wants the Tories to own the Brexit disaster and not pass it on.

That's an awful lot of people to throw under the bus to avoid Labour losing face.
posted by Dysk at 3:37 AM on June 3 [12 favorites]


That's an awful lot of people to throw under the bus to avoid Labour losing face.

That's politics in this country. Progressives have proved they care about appearance over actual effect often enough. No different to the right.
posted by MattWPBS at 4:42 AM on June 3 [1 favorite]


That's politics everywhere, and there's a reason for it - a lot of politics is marketing, otherwise people don't buy it and you don't get to do any good stuff at all. The trick is to optimise the amount of good stuff you can do and making sure the showmanship isn't damaging or taking too much time and money.

At least, if you're out to do good things.
posted by Devonian at 4:54 AM on June 3


Quite a lot from the Tories too - I couldn't quite redecorate the house, but I have no need to buy toilet paper for a while.

I'd be hesitant to use toilet paper that seems to have already acquired some of the same substance.
posted by jaduncan at 6:18 AM on June 3 [2 favorites]


That is, the Tory narrative would be "See! If we had won we wouldn't have made a mess of Brexit."

Are you sure that hasn't been the plan all along? If I understand correctly, it's even mostly the same people involved in the campaign now as it was for GE15 (on the Tory side), only this time they have absolutely no idea what they're doing.

There's of course also the possibility that anti-May Tory forces have been maneuvering to make this a close election so they can force out May. Say hello to your next PM, Boris!

(talking about malfunctioning robots, BoJo's been a bit uncalibrated lately, see e.g. this and this...)
posted by effbot at 8:00 AM on June 3


I haven't even seen any Tory election leaflets bar one. I feel all left out :( But I'm getting Facebook ads from the Scottish Conservatives for - and I quote - "All hail Ruth Davidson, Tory Queen of Scots."

Meanwhile on the LibDem-SNP frontline, the battle of our constituency offices continues! This started during the Scottish Parliament election last year when the SNP and LibDem candidates had campaign offices right next door to each other and did a good line in window posters about the sins of the other lot. Then the LibDem candidate won the MSP seat (window display: helium balloons saying "MSP"), and the SNP candidate packed up and left (leaving behind window display of a giant picture of Nicola Sturgeon, plus a large bar chart showing the national SNP vote share beating the LibDems).

This time round the SNP candidate for Westminster is the same as their Holyrood candidate, so I was watching carefully in hopes he'd get his constituency office back and the Wars of the Windows would start again. But alas, no - the LibDem Westminster candidate got it instead, so now it's LibDem office next to LibDem office with both window displays about how much they're opposed to the SNP.

This afternoon, the SNP had one of those massive billboard lorries parked right in front of both of them.
posted by Catseye at 8:09 AM on June 3 [2 favorites]


I got a Tory leaflet in Manchester. It came two days after the bombing, and one day after Theresa May said they were suspending canvassing. They've been vile, duplicitous, misinforming, and lying shysters throughout this process.

Saying that, a very long-term family Tory voter has just told me they're voting Labour this time. Please keep talking to people, keep talking through the lies and madness they're pushing, and show your passion for a better world. It's our only chance.
posted by davemee at 8:24 AM on June 3 [1 favorite]


Opinium/Observer poll has Con 43, Lab 37, Lib Dem 6. Plugging that into the UK Polling Report basic swingometer seemed to give a Tory majority of 13, but they say it would give a "substantial" majority so maybe I pasted something wrong.
posted by TheophileEscargot at 9:43 AM on June 3


We're in the top 20 safest seats for Labour, and have yet to see a single Conservative sign or leaflet. The Greens have been around a couple of times, but they have the seat for our ward in the local council, so we see them a lot anyway. One flier from our MP but some massive campaigning by Labour in our general vicinity, as we've got a key marginal to the south of us.
posted by skybluepink at 10:01 AM on June 3


2nd June - Ipsos MORI/Standard: CON 45%(-4), LAB 40%(+6), LDEM 7%(nc)

It's getting close.
posted by jaduncan at 10:01 AM on June 3 [2 favorites]


ComRes is out tonight with Con 47,Lab 35, Lib Dem 8 which gives a Tory majority of 84 on the swingometer. More polls are due tonight, the Sunday papers are giving us a bit of a clump.
posted by TheophileEscargot at 12:51 PM on June 3


Unconfirmed Twitter account claims Survation/Mail on Sunday will have Con 40,Lab 39,Lib Dem 8. Swingometer gives hung parliament, Labour 5 seats short. I guess El Gato would get to meet Humphrey...
posted by TheophileEscargot at 12:59 PM on June 3 [1 favorite]


They largely vary on the turnout model.
posted by jaduncan at 1:08 PM on June 3


You can sign up with Labour to do GOTV via a US-style web app. It would officially be helpful.
posted by jaduncan at 1:10 PM on June 3


ICM has Conservatives on 11% lead. They're all over the place. I'm trying not to get sucked in after Trump/Brexit/2015 polling issues, but it is really hard to look away.
posted by Catseye at 1:23 PM on June 3


Unconfirmed Twitter account claims Survation/Mail on Sunday will have Con 40,Lab 39,Lib Dem 8. Swingometer gives hung parliament, Labour 5 seats short. I guess El Gato would get to meet Humphrey...

For context, that's the Sky News political editor rather than someone more random.
posted by jaduncan at 1:26 PM on June 3 [1 favorite]


OK, so via @BritainElects and the Basic Swingometer the Saturday summary is:
YouGov: Con 42%, Lab 38%, Lib Dem 9%: Hung Parliament Con 13 short
ICM: Con 45%, Lab 34%, Lib Dem 5%: Tory majority 68
ORB: Con 45, Lab 36%, Lib Dem 8%: Tory majority 46
Survation: Con 40%, Lab 39%, Lib Dem 8%: Hung Parliament, Labour 5 short
ComRes: Con 47%, Lab 35%, Lib Dem 8%: Tory Majority 84
Opinium: Con 43%, Lab 37%, Lib Dem 6%: Tory Majority 14

Status quo: The 2015 election had Con 37%, Lab 30%, Lib Dem 8% with a Tory majority of 12 (now slightly higher).

If the actual 2017 results aren't in the higher half of the polls, Theresa May isn't going to look too smart.

Regarding the polls, I think we can safely say that "herding" isn't a problem this time round.
posted by TheophileEscargot at 2:02 PM on June 3


With a lot of the poll divergence resting on the 18-24 turnout there's an interesting piece from the Resolution Foundation here: Votey McVoteface: what’s driving the generational turnout gap, and why it matters. Nice to see this explored in a bit more depth than 'Millennial apathy, tut tut tut' narratives.
posted by Catseye at 2:24 PM on June 3 [2 favorites]


Oh, fuck. Reports of some kind of very bad incident on London Bridge.
posted by Catseye at 2:26 PM on June 3


Looks bad, but let's not liveblog it here.
posted by Devonian at 2:45 PM on June 3 [2 favorites]




I think they words out, but I don't make editorial decisions.
posted by Joe in Australia at 8:15 PM on June 3 [1 favorite]


Phillip Jones, who runs the Twitter account @Labour_Insider, has been suspended from the party after a series of antisemitic Tweets about Jewish journalist Emma Barnett (above).
posted by Joe in Australia at 8:34 PM on June 3 [1 favorite]


Crucial context for some of the poll results:
So far Opinium for the Observer shows topline figures of CON 43%(-2), LAB 37%(+2), LDEM 6%(-1), UKIP 5%(nc). Fieldwork was on Tuesday and Wednesday and changes are from a week ago. Again, we see the Tory lead continuing to drop down into single figures. Full tabs are here.
ComRes for the Sunday Mirror and Independent has topline figures of CON 47%(+1), LAB 35(+1), LDEM 8%(nc), UKIP 4%(nc). Fieldwork was Wednesday to Friday and changes are from a week ago. The Conservative lead is static at twelve points (currently the equal largest any company is showing). Some of the other questions in the poll are less positive for the Conservatives – asked if they have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of politicians and parties Theresa May now has a negative score. 39% have a favourable view, 42% unfavourable, giving her a net score of minus 2 compared to plus 9 in February. Jeremy Corbyn’s net score is now minus 15 – worse, but significantly up from minus 33 in February. Full tabs are here.

ICM‘s poll for the Sun on Sunday has topline figures of CON 45%(nc), LAB 34%(+1), LDEM 9%(+1), UKIP 5%(nc). Changes are from the ICM poll for the Guardian at the start of the week.
YouGov in the Sunday Times has topline figures of CON 42%, LAB 38%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 4%. Fieldwork was Thursday to Friday
ORB for the Sunday Telegraph have figures of CON 45%(+1), LAB 36%(-2), LDEM 8%(+1), UKIP 4%(-1). Fieldwork was Wed-Thurs with changes from a week ago.
Survation for the Mail on Sunday has topline figures of CON 40%(-6), LAB 39%(+5), LDEM 8%(nc), UKIP 5%(+2). Fieldwork was conducted wholly this morning, and changes are from Survations previous online poll in the Mail on Sunday. Tabs are here.
Tl;dr: The more recent the fieldwork, the better the Labour numbers.
posted by jaduncan at 9:36 PM on June 3


I had to laugh when May actually said, "The only poll that counts is on election day." About 15 different people immediately tweeted, "That's it, she's lost."
posted by Chrysostom at 9:51 PM on June 3 [2 favorites]


Labour surge seems to be happening in Scotland too. Survation has:

SNP: 40% (-3)
CON: 27% (-1)
LAB: 25% (+7)
LDEM: 6% (-3)

Did not see that coming.
posted by Catseye at 3:02 AM on June 4


The FT has a pessimistic piece, saying that Labour will still lose heavily because it's not making much headway in the marginal seats. Which is absolutely par for the course, I'm afraid, and underlines the importance of those ugly old demographics.
posted by Devonian at 6:03 AM on June 4 [1 favorite]


But I want to belieeeeeve :(
posted by pharm at 8:13 AM on June 4


Me too - and I do actually dare to hope that the SNP will hold up well. Can't expect to repeat the omnidrubbing they meted out last time, but a respectable showing that keeps heads held high.
posted by Devonian at 8:23 AM on June 4


The FT has a pessimistic piece, saying that Labour will still lose heavily because it's not making much headway in the marginal seats.

The Labour party (and Momentum) has been encouraging its members to campaign in their nearest marginal for the final heave. We'll see what difference it makes.
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 9:27 AM on June 4 [1 favorite]


Me too - and I do actually dare to hope that the SNP will hold up well.

I hope Angus Robertson keeps his seat, he's one of the best MPs at the moment
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 9:30 AM on June 4


Just spoke to my parents - usual Sunday tea-time phone call - and my mother was bemoaning that their MP was a Tory with a huge majority 'so there's no point in voting. But I will. I've only not voted once in my life, and that was because I was abroad and it was before postal votes came in'. Cue Devonian muttering under his breath 'yes, that's the bloody problem', which is unworthy of me and very unfair on my mother who (geriatric brexitophilia aside) has a sterling record of political community involvement of a staunchly centrist - and anti-Tory - kind, but I'm in a grumpy mood.

However, I did cheer up when I found said Tory MP's father was busted bang to rights when the solicitors' firm he was a partner in got done for boiler room fraud. Million quid fines all round!
posted by Devonian at 11:14 AM on June 4 [1 favorite]


It's the hope that kills you.
posted by MattWPBS at 1:32 PM on June 4 [5 favorites]


It's the Parliamentary Labour Party that kills me. Labour are just 5 to 7 points behind depending whose average you're using . What if they'd kept up a facade of unity, kept the manoeuvring behind closed doors as usual, not depleted the front bench with the stunt resignations? The big argument people keep giving me is: "Corbyn wouldn't be able to do anything anyway as his MPs hate him".

But whatever happens they won't see it. Even though the political climate everywhere is favoring populist outsiders, although the matchup polls I linked upthread show Corbyn doing better than his rivals, they'll remain firmly convinced that what Labour needed, needs, and always will need is a plastic Establishment mannequin parroting Third Way slogans in a suit. The only error they'll acknowledge is not providing one.
posted by TheophileEscargot at 11:26 PM on June 4 [1 favorite]


Yeah, plus a lot of general supporters and commentators (and a fair few of my Labour-supporting friends):

2015/16: "It doesn't matter if you like Corbyn's politics best, left-wingers - we need a leader who can actually win, and that means you need to rally behind a candidate who maybe doesn't tick all your personal boxes."

2017: "So what if Corbyn's doing well? I still don't support him, I can't stand the man and his politics."

Either one is a defensible position maybe but come on, pick a side.
posted by Catseye at 1:15 AM on June 5 [7 favorites]


Call for Theresa May to resign over security issues, from... former Cameron strategy man Steve Hilton (also of Demon Eyes poster fame). Oh, and Corbyn.

Not like bloodthirsty Tory power struggles are anything new, of course, but interesting to see that kicking off at a point like this in their campaign. I reckon unless she gets a 50+ seat majority she's toast - and even then, maybe. Which will leave us with YAY FUN TIMES, another Tory leadership contest! (My money's on IDS and I am only sort of joking.)
posted by Catseye at 4:27 AM on June 5


Okay. Jezza has just called on T-May to resign over the scope of funding cuts to the police. Alongside Steve 'Mr. Blue Sky' Hilton and senior police identifying the increased risk of terror and stretching of police resources under the Tories, it's hotting up again.

Unless this election will be decided by Yorkshiremen calling on pre-emptive nuclear first strikes on North Korea....
posted by davemee at 4:29 AM on June 5


Unless there's real selective quoting of questions in the Grauniad live blog, it sounds like May's getting a kicking from all corners over her record. Don't seem to be any of the usual soft soap questions that you'd normally see from supportive press.
posted by MattWPBS at 4:39 AM on June 5


Steve Hilton?

*spit*

( In between popping up on the poisonous Fox&Friends daily morning show, the "guru" is now hosting "The Next Revolution with Steve Hilton", a weekend one-hour political talk show on Murdoch's Fox News channel.)
posted by Mister Bijou at 5:25 AM on June 5


Unless this election will be decided by Yorkshiremen calling on pre-emptive nuclear first strikes on North Korea....

Why won't you push the button, Jeremy?
posted by indubitable at 6:02 AM on June 5 [5 favorites]




Speaking as a European, can anyone in this thread perhaps explain this clear message to Europe? I mean, I can see her, but I'm not sure what it's supposed to mean.
posted by effbot at 7:40 AM on June 5


It's probably meant to mean "fuck off Europe" but actually says "Jesus Christ everything about England is depressing these days, isn't it?"
posted by dng at 7:50 AM on June 5 [6 favorites]


A huge structure of Theresa May flicking the V sign has been erected on the White Cliffs of Dover.

is this... is this real. satire is indistinguishable from reality at this point.
posted by EndsOfInvention at 8:22 AM on June 5 [2 favorites]


It does look like Armando Iannucci has been tinkering with the fabric of reality again, doesn't it?
posted by Grangousier at 8:29 AM on June 5 [1 favorite]


I am enjoying putting together the FPP for election day itself, partially as stuff like that makes it so easy. As does the fact that you don't have to scratch the surface of Britain, and British politics, so hard to find ... unusual stuff. Such as multiple parties, each with candidates declared for this election, who are enthusiastically advocating a great expansion of coal mining in the UK.

(And also another party which features an obscene drawing of The Queen which is making it problematic for inclusion in a post. Never a dull moment in UK politics.)
posted by Wordshore at 8:36 AM on June 5


I like that the May effigy is held up by a crane, as though there's a subtext that May is neither strong nor stable in her ability to stand up for herself.
posted by davemee at 8:39 AM on June 5






At a guess, the May effigy is one of the tabloid newspapers doing a front cover shot for the Thursday edition. They have a bit of a track record in this field.
posted by Wordshore at 9:43 AM on June 5


I look at that giant May and think... didn't i see something like that on Doctor Who this weekend?

And then I think Gävlebocken.
posted by Devonian at 10:04 AM on June 5 [2 favorites]


And then I think Gävlebocken.

Or why no this one: "Oh, God! Oh, Jesus Christ!"
posted by effbot at 10:14 AM on June 5 [2 favorites]


Oh yes, much better. There is potential in a Wicker Man/UK politics mash-up, Farage as Lord Summerisle?

Meanwhile openDemocracy asks 'Where did the Scottish Tories get their new, huge wads of cash from?' and - oh, you guessed it - nobody's saying.
posted by Devonian at 11:05 AM on June 5 [1 favorite]


Scrooge McDuck?
posted by Chrysostom at 11:06 AM on June 5


how big of a deal is it in the UK right now that Obama's 2012 campaign manager and former deputy chief of staff is working to get the Tories elected?
posted by indubitable at 2:40 PM on June 5


I don't think anyone cares. The spectacle of May trying desperately to eliminate any suspicion that she's an actual human with actual intelligence and the ability to spell empathy has rather distracted us all from much else.
posted by Devonian at 3:19 PM on June 5 [1 favorite]


New Survation poll has Lab within a point of Tories.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:29 PM on June 5


It's amazing how often the "We're miles ahead, let's call an early election and lock it in" strategy ends in a change of government. Hasn't this happened in the UK before, too?
posted by Joe in Australia at 7:36 PM on June 5


1974.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:33 PM on June 5 [1 favorite]


That Survation poll has CON 42%, LAB 40%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 3% which is a hung parliament, Tories short 12 on the swingometer. (It's a 1% lead as exact figures are 41.5% to 40.4%)

ICM poll has CON 45%, LAB 34%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 5%. That's a 50 seat majority from the swingometer.

According to ever-mysterious doorstep sentiment Labour are set to do much worse than the polls say outside London: a "nuclear winter for Labour." Theresa May is also visiting seats with 21%, 14%, 17% Labour majorities suggesting the Tories are still campaigning to boost a landslide, not eke out a narrow victory.
posted by TheophileEscargot at 9:59 PM on June 5


If a hung Parliament would put Brexit in the "too hard" basket I would be overjoyed.
posted by Joe in Australia at 11:02 PM on June 5 [1 favorite]


Also worth remembering that the Conservatives were one of the few who called the 2015 election right. That is, Messina and Crosby's analysis did, although lots of the party still didn't believe it.
posted by Catseye at 11:50 PM on June 5


Messina and Crosby

Crosby I can understand, he was poison before he came. It will forever make me slightly sad that Messina is working for the Tories, though.
posted by jaduncan at 11:55 PM on June 5 [2 favorites]


Whatever happens, it's going to seem very obvious in retrospect.

I still think the Tories are going to win it with a majority, and although youth turnout will start climbing back up it won't be enough to swing it for Corbyn. (Maybe if Labour weren't going for a hard Brexit too that would be different.) I'll eat my hat if I'm wrong. That said I guessed the last few close-run ones wrong as well, so maybe I'll be eating that hat with a side-helping of glee on June 9th after all.
posted by Catseye at 12:31 AM on June 6 [2 favorites]


Whatever happens, it will have an obvious explanatory story. The trouble is that from this side of the election we can’t tell which story is the true one!
posted by pharm at 2:15 AM on June 6


Given the polls before predicted Labour and Remain wins, and they were wrong both times, and now the pollsters have (supposedly) learned from that and even the closest polls show Tories just ahead, I'm not optimistic. But maybe they overcompensated and are wrong again. Probably not.
posted by EndsOfInvention at 3:40 AM on June 6 [1 favorite]


The naughtiest thing Theresa May has ever done, according to Theresa May.

Before anyone claims that's not in any way naughty, I recommend watching this clip.
posted by effbot at 3:57 AM on June 6 [1 favorite]


That Survation poll has CON 42%, LAB 40%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 3% which is a hung parliament

Article about Survation pre-2015 election poll that was "so outlandish a forecast that they decided not to publish it"... but ended up predicting the results very closely.
Damian Lyons Lowe, the founder and CEO of Survation, wrote in a blog post that he had "chickened out" of publishing this final poll because it was such an outlier compared to both the company's previous polls and other pollsters. Instead he decided to sit on it even as the results started to come in.
Oh god can we just get this all over with please.
posted by EndsOfInvention at 4:19 AM on June 6 [2 favorites]


We had a campaigner from the LibDems round last night (this is one of their big target seats). It was nice to feed back in person what I've been grumbling about for weeks, that I genuinely want to like the LibDems but it's a bit offputting when their entire campaign strategy here seems to be "let's stop Nicola Sturgeon", who is as far as I'm aware not currently in power in Westminster. Seriously, leaflet after leaflet after leaflet on no to Indyref2 and let's hold the SNP to account on health and education (which are devolved issues, so no, no you can't). We even had one the other day saying something like "you don't need to agree with us on everything to vote for us, you just need to think the SNP should be stopped." Sigh.

I feel that the non-SNP Scottish parties are really missing the boat on this one, with Labour and the LibDems falling over each other to be more unionist than thou. They know (surely they know?) that independence support is wavery in Scotland, that there are a lot of pragmatic Yes-voters who aren't nationalists at all costs, and even a lot of No voters who voted SNP. Fighting this on a single-issue SNP Bad platform is putting people off. Maybe just people in my own little bubble, but I don't think so.
posted by Catseye at 4:40 AM on June 6


I've been half-joking that with enough bad luck, you'll end up with Boris at the top once this is over. Let me now, for the record, add "or even worse, Gove" to that statement.
posted by effbot at 4:54 AM on June 6


There were terrifying rumours of Gove as Northern Ireland secretary a while back. Surely not? But in a world that brought us Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson, maybe anything is possible.

Meanwhile I hope someone's checking up on Philip Hammond. He's gone awfully quiet.
posted by Catseye at 5:03 AM on June 6


Meanwhile I hope someone's checking up on Philip Hammond. He's gone awfully quiet.

He's my MP. Did a meet and greet thing last night, but not really even seen much from him in the local press. It's a very safe Tory seat (Runnymede and Weybridge), but would have expected him to at least be on local newspaper website a few times.
posted by MattWPBS at 5:21 AM on June 6


Tories seem have released BoJo from wherever he's been held for most of the campaign so far.
posted by MattWPBS at 5:22 AM on June 6


So that he can effectively side with Trump against the Mayor of London. Twat.
posted by Grangousier at 5:36 AM on June 6 [1 favorite]


Cassetteboy vs Theresa May.

And from a few days ago on Twitter: The Tory Magic Money Tree and its Remix.
posted by rory at 8:51 AM on June 6 [1 favorite]




Nate Silver on the polls:
Conservatives really do have a track record of beating their polls. But if everyone knows this and worries about it happening again — including pollsters — it could make the effect disappear or even reverse itself. My view, therefore — I’ll spend the rest of this article explaining my thinking behind this — is that the error is about equally likely to come in either direction. There’s a significant chance of Conservatives beating their polls again, but Labour is roughly as likely to do so.
posted by Catseye at 10:09 AM on June 6


Good morning my pommie brethren.

Theresa May‏ @theresa_may
I'm clear: if human rights laws get in the way of tackling extremism and terrorism, we will change those laws to keep British people safe.

Unfortunately, it's real.
posted by Talez at 2:30 PM on June 6


I feel like I've started to hear "human rights" said with the same tone of voice as "health and safety" and "political correctness" by the sort people that might append "gone mad" to those phrases.
posted by lucidium at 2:51 PM on June 6 [8 favorites]


Oh no they didn't:
Anger over 'Star of David' symbol on Labour poster

"Poster" diminishes the scale: it was (the Council has ordered it removed) a "100 foot banner" hung at Bristol's central roundabout. And the person behind it defends themself by claiming to have Jewish friends.
posted by Joe in Australia at 4:05 PM on June 6 [3 favorites]


Crosby I can understand, he was poison before he came. It will forever make me slightly sad that Messina is working for the Tories, though.

the world is a vampire
posted by Apocryphon at 5:39 PM on June 6 [1 favorite]


Opinium's final poll has CON 43%, LAB 36%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 5%. Gives 22 on the Swingometer (which could of course be wildly out even if the percentages are right).

Lord Ashcroft says his model gives a Tory majority of 64.

New Statesman says May's visits to Labour safe seats mean the Tories are very confident, and warns Labour could have its worst defeat since 1935.

And a Tory "Strong and Stable" van has overturned in the wind.
posted by TheophileEscargot at 9:51 PM on June 6 [6 favorites]


Spring into summer with this sunny offer from Theresa May! Just click below to indicate which human right you would like to relinquish, and you'll be in the running for 1000 Nectar points or a £20 Amazon gift voucher. Renounce three rights and you'll get 2000 Nectar points or £40 at Amazon. Sign away all your rights and be in the running for a holiday for four in Florida!

[ ] Right to life
[ ] No torture
[ ] No slavery
[ ] Right to liberty
[ ] Right to a fair trial
[ ] No retroactive criminalisation
[ ] Right to privacy
[ ] Freedom of thought
[ ] Freedom of expression
[ ] Freedom of assembly
[ ] Right to marry and establish a family
[ ] No discrimination based on sex, race, colour, language, religion, political or other opinion, national or social origin, association with a national minority, property, birth or other status
[ ] All rights in the European Convention on Human Rights*

*Exchange the full ECHR for a holiday for a family of four to Orlando, Florida, with two-day passes to Walt Disney World® Resort. Also included are 4 nights accommodation on a room-only basis in an Orlando hotel, return flights from the UK and 4 days economy car hire up to the value of £200.
posted by rory at 2:28 AM on June 7 [8 favorites]


Sign away all your rights and be in the running for a holiday for four in Florida!

South-eastern Cuba, surely?
posted by Grangousier at 3:38 AM on June 7


I'm praying that abolishing human rights is not a last-minute election saver for the Tories, but I'm not optimistic.

As soon as I heard her say that, I thought, well, game set and match.

Until that moment I really thought there was a chance Labour would beat her.
posted by tel3path at 4:46 AM on June 7 [3 favorites]




rory stop giving the fuckers ideas

i mean

we shurely will see this on a yougov website
posted by lalochezia at 5:27 AM on June 7


I think threatening to scrap human rights legislation will be very successful for the campaign, despite the fact it would be U-turning on yet another manifesto commitment and has no clear way to work (how is that legislation 'getting in the way' now, exactly?).

Going by the highly scientific polling sample set of People I Know, there's a growing number who believe that there must be some kind of quick fix to terrorism somewhere, and it's probably something about political correctness/multiculturalism/'human rights nonsense'. Also a worrying degree of support for internment of 'anyone on the watch list', despite the fact that we did that in the 70s and it made things much worse. It just feels appealing, so people want it. Siiiiiigh.
posted by Catseye at 5:30 AM on June 7 [1 favorite]


Stephen Bush goes looking for the surge: Is Labour's poll boost real?

Marina Hyde: It all looked so good for the Tories – then Paradise Syndrome struck "...when Dave [Stewart] had his elective appendectomy, he was living in an LA mansion and married to Siobhan from Bananarama. This elective election felt like it was taking place while Britain was sleeping in its car and married to Katie Hopkins. This is not Paradise Syndrome. Paradise was lost some time ago. We’ve just spent seven weeks arguing over the fig leaves."
posted by effbot at 10:15 AM on June 7


Sign away all your rights and be in the running for a holiday for four in Florida!
South-eastern Cuba, surely?

No, no, the holiday in Florida is only for the people whose faces aren't made of delicious leopard food.
posted by ambrosen at 12:44 PM on June 7


More final polls, via UK Polling Report and @BritainElects:

ICM: CON 46%(+1), LAB 34%(nc), LDEM 7%(-1), UKIP 5%(nc),
ComRes for the Independent: CON 44%(-3), LAB 34%(-1), LDEM 9%(+1), UKIP 5%(+1)
Surveymonkey for the Sun: CON 42%(-2), LAB 38%(nc), LDEM 6%(nc), UKIP 4%(nc)
Panelbase: CON 44%(nc), LAB 36%(nc), LDEM 7%(nc), UKIP 5%(nc), GRN 2%(-1)
Kantar: CON 43%(nc), LAB 38%(+5), LDEM 7%(-4), UKIP 4%(nc).
TNS: CON: 43% (-) LAB: 38% (+5) LDEM: 7% (-4) UKIP: 4% (-) GRN: 2% (-1)

No sign of a late Tory surge, either no movement or some movement to Labour.
posted by TheophileEscargot at 1:39 PM on June 7


Also saw a blog response to the New Statesman articles I linked earlier:
I think there’s a deep, craven pessimism running through the British centre-left – a tendency to look at a house draped in St George’s flags, a focus group denouncing benefit claimants or a poll expressing distrust of Muslims and think, but who are we to tell them they’re wrong?…and maybe they’re actually right… It’s partly self-administered middle-class guilt-tripping, but also partly a deep-seated lack of trust in the project of the Left; the two work together, making it possible to pick off individual beliefs and label them as middle-class affectations rather than core beliefs. (I mean, yeah, in principle, everyone’s equal… but that’s easy for us to say…) The trouble with this way of thinking is that it doesn’t come with any particular sense of what the core beliefs are: potentially just about every tenet of the Left can be discarded as ‘liberal’, ‘cosmopolitan’ or ‘middle-class’, from anti-racism to full employment. What will never be discarded are the core beliefs of the Right – nation, tradition, discipline, authority, Empire… Hence the periodic calls for Labour to get closer to ‘our people’, which on inspection always seems to mean those of ‘our people’ who see themselves in certain ways – our respectable hard-working people, our old-fashioned traditionalist people, our patriotic heritage-defending people… If Labour aren’t going to deliver – if Labour are going to give us a lot of namby-pamby nonsense about how you should talk to your enemies, be friendly with strangers, love your neighbours wherever they’re from – then Labour can’t win; Labour must be heading for a shattering defeat, the more shattering the better.
posted by TheophileEscargot at 2:12 PM on June 7 [2 favorites]


Agreed, Theophile, and I would add that a lot of it comes from a shrinking away from acknowledging that the core belief of the Left (let's roughly call it socialistic, the belief that sharing is caring and all that sort of rot) is *not believed in* any more.

I won't open a Georgist can of worms right now but the mindset in British culture has always been one of stinginess and scarcity. On a fundamental level, the British do not believe there is plenty for everyone. A middle class lefty, even one of very modest means, is going to think that everything he has is something he's personally taken away from someone poorer than himself. If he gets a watch, someone on the other side of the world loses a watch. If he buys a basket, some poor old lady carrying her laundry on her head suddenly finds that the basket has vanished and her laundry is strewn all over the mud.

An old church buddy of mine articulated this by saying that, of course, as a Christian he was inevitably a hypocrite (since we all are sinners all day long despite our belief that we shouldn't be) and that socialism fitted right into that (since we are all capitalist exploiters despite our belief that we shouldn't be).

If you don't think there *actually is* plenty for everyone then the idea of not having student tuition fees is going to seem like an idealistic pipe dream, for example. The current economic shitpit we're in is just going to seem like an inevitability, it was always going to be this way, we're just at the wrong bit of history right now.

So yeah, self-loathing and shame. Whereas Tory arseholes are not encumbered by anything but (what they think is) self-interest (which is really just a desperate smash and grab à la 2011 riots, which perfectly expressed the character of the nation: looting low end and relatively naff consumer goods as a statement).

The crucial thing is that the right AND the leftist-on-the-street think it's a zero sum game. Prisoner's Dilemma. So of course everyone defects instead of cooperating, either by pulling up the ladder and voting Tory in the hopes of grabbing what they can of the few remaining scraps, or by just giving up and getting depressed and not voting or voting for someone on principle that you know is going to lose.

The American mindset, as much as the criticisms about prosperity gospel hit their mark, and whatever its virtues are or not - at least it didn't USED TO BE a scarcity mentality. Michael Caine said that in Britain when they see someone driving around in a limo, they think "one day we will get him out of that and destroy it" whereas Americans tell themselves "one day I'm going to have a car just like that". Now even Americans aren't thinking like that any more, imagine how pessimistic we Brits are.

Again, whatever Corbyn's virtues are or not, he is not in the least stingy, and he isn't extravagant either. I really think he could help us. Not a Great Leader, more a boring but effective dad who finds you gnashing your teeth over homework late at night and tells you to put the books away, makes you some cocoa, and helps you work out a plan for getting on top of things in the morning. Combined with some general life advice that seems naive because you are bogged down in your problems and also are a teenager, but really he knows what he's talking about.

All the polls suggest a Tory victory, in which case we are entirely fucked. If they don't win, though, things might actually start to improve a bit.
posted by tel3path at 3:21 PM on June 7 [3 favorites]




BONG! It is election day, so here is your UK General Election day post.
posted by Wordshore at 4:07 PM on June 7 [6 favorites]


Thanks, Wordshore.
posted by ambrosen at 11:01 PM on June 7 [2 favorites]


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