Baron Von Thunderclap for Mid Sussex: The 2017 UK General Election
June 7, 2017 4:06 PM   Subscribe

After many leaflets of debatable accuracy, and many parties and 3,303 candidates (post title) of varying likelihood of winning, it's time for a nice cup of tea and another jolly splendid UK election (current map). There's been professional messaging, swearing at schoolchildren (related pitfalls), spaniel smelling, posters, demonstrations (nsfw), polling drama, Moomins and the return of Ed, chips, angry and warmongering and peaceful Brits, fake estate agents, stiff British humour, strong and stable, casual xenophobia and family canvassing. But it's now down to Theresa May or Jeremy Corbyn or Nicola Sturgeon or Tim Farron or Mr Fish Finger for UK PM. Elsewhere, the Wessex Regionalists are standing in Devizes, while the Yorkshire Party are standing in 21 seats across t'county...

...and other parties standing in this election include (all defending zero seats):

- The Space Navies (nsfw for swearing, goatse drawing of The Queen), with Lisabela Zxywhiddm Marschild standing on a platform of wealth over half a million pounds to be surrendered, and moving parliament to Blaydon.
- The Official Monster Raving Loony Party, standing in 12 constituences, with policies including "half the grey squirrels will be painted red to increase the red squirrel population" and "atheism will be given charity status being a non-prophet organization."
- Patria: "We see a bright future for the coal industry and will invest in new mines and methods of production."
- The Church of the Militant Elvis Party, with one candidate. "The Church of The Militant Elvis Party is a semi-religious party which believes that Elvis is still alive and living in an old people’s home on the Lincolnshire coast somewhere between Skegness and Mablethorpe." (related)
- The Pirate Party, whose election manifesto states "We want our libraries to remain a free source of knowledge and information, but also to do so much more in a passive, user friendly way. Our security and anonymity should be protected when using a public machine and we should look to lessen the risk of using public Internet connections."
- Citizens Independent Social Thought Alliance, renamed with the same initials, advocating for an evidence based review of current drug laws in the UK.
- The Christian Peoples Alliance, standing in 30 constituencies, who "would give a grant (initially set at £10,000 per couple) to be made available to all couples on the occasion of their first marriage provided that they go for at least five sessions of marital awareness training."
- The Young People's Party, a left-leaning flat-tax libertarian party which on open cast coal mining argues it is "...far cheaper and safer than underground mining, plus you get a free reservoir at the end of it."
- UKIP, which wants schools to change the colour of gold stars, issued for good behaviour, as these are a reminder of the EU flag.

Sadly, the Natural Law Party are deregistered in the UK and no longer stand candidates in UK election. Other defunct UK political parties include Citizens for Undead Rights and Equality, Al-Zebabist Nation of Ooog (more), and the Death, Dungeons and Taxes Party (annex France, hang people who litter).

The House of Commons at dissolution
The Conservative and Unionist Party: 330
The Labour Party: 229
The Scottish National Party (SNP): 54
The Liberal Democratic Party: 9
The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP): 8
Independent MPs: 5
Sinn Féin: 4
Plaid Cymru (The Party of Wales): 3
The Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP): 3
The Ulster Unionist Party (UUP): 2
The Green Party: 1
The speaker seeking re-election: 1
Vacant seats: 1
Total: 650 seats

Meanwhile...
In a small selection of recent events ... Theresa's grudge match against the editor of the Evening Standard continues, while Theresa herself ducked out of a debate, being replaced by a former aristocracy coordinator. On policy, unsurprisingly Big Pharma wants more health funding, while the TaxPayers' Alliance want lower taxes. There's more trouble for Theresa as the expenses scandal from the last election progresses, and fox hunting is not a popular policy, while one UKIP candidate has been suspended and various candidates may or may not have offshore accounts.

Another UKIP candidate goes controversial on Twitter, while another Conservative candidate claimed the typical foodbank user is not ‘languishing in poverty’ but rather has ‘a cashflow problem’. Also, Danny DeVito has been maybe promoting Jeremy, while Tim has played the Bake Off card. Elsewhere, the previous Prime Minister has purchased a fancy shed, and an interview with the leader of the party that often proposes policies then stolen by other parties.

Recent or final polls and predictions from the UK Polling Report, Reuters, the Guardian, the Independent and Lord Ashcroft. The latest bookmaker odds.

On the night
Postal voting has been taking place already, though with problems in Runcorn, Welwyn, Plymouth, Guildford, East Devon, Fylde and other constituencies. On Thursday 8th June voting takes place in polling stations between 7am and 10pm British (Summer) Time. At that 10pm mark (5pm in New York, 2pm in Portland), a big exit poll (BBC/ITV/Sky) is revealed which may give a good indication of the result. The 650 seats do their individual counts, and these are the predicted times and things to look out for:
- The Daily Mirror.
- The Independent.
- The New European.
- The Radio Times.
- The Telegraph.

Previously
- This election.
- The 2016 EU referendum (Brexit).
- The 2015 UK general election.
- The 2014 Scottish independence referendum.
- The 2010 UK general election plus some more.
- The 2005 UK general election.
- The 2001 UK general election plus some more.

Housekeeping!
1. (Some) Americans aren't interested, and ditto Russia, or maybe no-one is interested, but y'all welcome to comment here (crash course) so long as you don't turn it into a load of covfefe about The Orange One (that belongs over here) unless relevant.
2. Yes, there's been very recent dark events in the UK, and many serious and life-changing things are affected by this election, but in Britain we have a centuries-long tradition of satire and comedy, especially when applied to politics and politicians; hence this is not an entirely solemn post.
3. The MetaFilter moderators are people too and this comment by a mod is worth a read if you are considering venting or taking out a bad result through writing. This comment details alternative resources and methods.

Back to Mid Sussex and the election showdown between a grandson of Winston Churchill and The Baron...
posted by Wordshore (1584 comments total) 111 users marked this as a favorite
 
This is an amazing post, thank you.

I've taken Friday off as a mental health day. There is no way I can wake up in the UK after yet another election (anywhere) and even think about writing my TPS reports or whatever. I've learnt.
posted by iamkimiam at 4:15 PM on June 7 [14 favorites]


Great post. Shame about the polls.
posted by EndsOfInvention at 4:25 PM on June 7 [5 favorites]


I've also taken Friday off for the sake of my sanity. Can't help but feel we're all doomed.
posted by knapah at 4:34 PM on June 7 [3 favorites]


ahhh gawd we have to go vote today
posted by Ten Cold Hot Dogs at 4:34 PM on June 7 [2 favorites]


In response to a "wtf - is that for real?!!" message - yes, the Space Navies website is the real campaign website of a candidate who has paid her £500 and is standing in this election as a legitimate candidate. So much to love about the website, from the way it starts off all cheery and friendly and then ... changes somewhat (the nsfw is there for a reason), and the medals, and the glorious election leaflets.

Paddy Power are currently offering odds of 250/1 for Lisa to win the seat (the poor Green Party candidate is 500/1).
posted by Wordshore at 4:35 PM on June 7 [1 favorite]


Great post. Shame about the polls.

Sure but if we take Brexit as a guide, Labour will win an outright majority and Corbyn will then nationalize the Conservative Party and you won't have an election ever again
posted by Automocar at 4:41 PM on June 7 [4 favorites]


I just want you to know, good luck, we're all a bunch of raving loonies.
posted by delfin at 4:41 PM on June 7 [10 favorites]


Well, May has been astonishingly bad in the campaign — I wasn’t impressed by her as prime minister anyway, but the way she crumpled under the pressure has been quite something. And Corbyn has been better than I expected; maybe campaigning is more his comfort zone than actually being leader of the opposition. But in the end it looks like May is going to limp over the line comfortably ahead, and then see how far she can get reinventing the UK’s entire geopolitical stance with nothing but bluster and shitty slogans.
posted by Bloxworth Snout at 4:41 PM on June 7 [6 favorites]


refuse to nuke Iran "just for a laugh"

you say this like avoiding nuclear war is a bad thing

i'm hoping your comment is sarcasm but boy it's hard to tell
posted by burgerrr at 4:44 PM on June 7 [7 favorites]


THIS IS WHAT YOU GET IF YOU MOVE AWAY FROM A 2 PARTY SYSTEM
posted by lalochezia at 4:53 PM on June 7 [4 favorites]


It's amazing that someone as utterly fucking useless at everything as May is probably going to win. I don't know what happened to my country to make it the land of constant awful failure, but I can't see anything getting any better in the next, well, forever.

/gloom
posted by Artw at 4:54 PM on June 7 [9 favorites]


I predict Arthur Negus will hold Bristols.
posted by stevis23 at 4:55 PM on June 7 [3 favorites]




Is there a clinic that will do those medical comas like in Valley of The Dolls? If I wake up a week from now when everything has settled, it'll be like waking up in the not to distant future.
posted by The Whelk at 5:00 PM on June 7 [5 favorites]


Speaking as a mostly lurking American who saw this linked in the infinite scream that is the election/POTUS threads... Wordshore, this is an amazing post. It's made me realize that I have not been paying appropriate attention to the way this horrorshow is playing out in democracies of all stripes across the globe. As in November, I don't think I can watch the live results, but I wish you a better outcome that we had.
posted by slenderloris at 5:04 PM on June 7 [17 favorites]


I just want to tell you good luck. We're all counting on you.
posted by tobascodagama at 5:06 PM on June 7 [26 favorites]


refuse to nuke Iran "just for a laugh"

you say this like avoiding nuclear war is a bad thing

i'm hoping your comment is sarcasm but boy it's hard to tell


Yes apologies Poe's Law and all that - I'm just weakly riffing on the otherwise hilarious #LastMinuteCorbynSmears.

In all seriousness, it's been quite alarming seeing JC get hammered on his opposition to Trident and therefore his assumed "unwillingness to push the button", when his whole deal is "why the fuck don't we just get rid of nuclear weapons full stop?". Let's hope reason prevails, despite mounting evidence to the contrary.
posted by Ten Cold Hot Dogs at 5:13 PM on June 7 [4 favorites]


Reminder that the opinion poll numbers come from models based on voter turnout, in particular, young people not turning out. It's real easy to make those polls utterly, utterly wrong. Do your duty.
posted by Jimbob at 5:26 PM on June 7 [10 favorites]


When someone says she'd rip up human rights laws to pass anti-terror legislation

The guy who's reluctant to support Trident is NOT THE FUCKING PROBLEM
posted by delfin at 5:33 PM on June 7 [26 favorites]


I'm not taking Friday off work.
I'm taking Thursday off work. I will be out doing my best to get turnout.

I live in one of the most marginal seats in the country, Labour won here in 2015 with 465 votes.
The Greens (2000ish votes in 2015) and UKIP (3000 ish in 2015) have withdrawn.
The Greens are actively campaigning for Labour.

Labour are up in London, Up in Wales.
Maybe it will be enough.
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 5:34 PM on June 7 [28 favorites]


"UKIP, which wants schools to change the colour of gold stars, issued for good behaviour, as these are a reminder of the EU flag."

I LOLed. There is nothing so trivial these idiots aren't ON IT.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 5:42 PM on June 7 [27 favorites]


All my friends who are resident here in the US on visas and green cards have sent in their votes to their home boroughs. One of my friends who lives in Connecticut sent in his vote to his borough in Richmond and hasn't received a reply of acknowledgement. He's very worried about shenanigans, though in true English fashion he hasn't outright said so, though I picked up on it.

Should he be worried? I've heard Richmond is generally a conservative stronghold.
posted by droplet at 5:55 PM on June 7 [2 favorites]


Another great post, Wordshore.

FWIW, the 538 take is roughly equal probability of: Tory landslide, narrow Tory victory, hung parliament.

Which, tbh, feels a bit like saying, "Tomorrow it will either pour, or sprinkle, or be partly cloudy."
posted by Chrysostom at 6:01 PM on June 7 [7 favorites]


538 turned so slowly from data analysis to full-on punditry that I didn't even notice!
posted by Yowser at 6:13 PM on June 7 [6 favorites]


Wordshore: awarded the Order of Lenin with oakleaf clusters.

UK politics: all the nutritional value and appetizing appeal of a white pudding supper in Wick on a rainy Friday night.

But I shall vote tomorrow as I always vote: for the right people. They will have as win or lose they always have, little effect on the gloomy arc of history.

Am I downhearted? No! As the Norwegian captain said: for thoughts, there is gin.
posted by Devonian at 6:20 PM on June 7 [13 favorites]


There have been issues spotted with postal votes.
Definitely worth checking.
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 6:30 PM on June 7 [3 favorites]


We're all counting on you, fellow parliamentary voter country!

(Re: Mail voting. It could be worse. You could receive your voting packet the same day it's due physically at a specific address, several hundred kilometres away in the Nation's Capital.

(mumble mumble))
posted by Yowser at 6:54 PM on June 7 [2 favorites]


Well, I called the last election and the referendum correctly months in advance, and when May called this one, I said the Tories would win it, which I suppose in context means an outright majority if not increasing their majority. I really hope I'm wrong.
posted by Dysk at 7:25 PM on June 7 [1 favorite]


This UK election is giving me a bit of a psephological boner at the moment. Here's a good primer on it (the meaty psephology comes about a third of the way through).

The most sophisticated predictor I’ve seen is at YouGov, which at present is in hung parliament territory.

The great imponderable is voters in the 18–24 age range. 68 per cent of them are reportedly for Corbyn camp, but the extent of the turnout is a big unknown. If those numbers are high enough, it could well be a tipping point of a huge shift. Here's a decent read on that.
posted by Tasmanian_Kris at 7:27 PM on June 7 [3 favorites]




This is so delightful! Thanks, Wordshore, especially for the breakdowns of the very tiny but fascinating parties.
posted by corb at 8:10 PM on June 7 [1 favorite]


I postal voted ages ago and had no ack. I think they would have to actually count your vote in order to acknowledge it so I am not worried personally.

Someone asked Bryan Fuller to urge British Fannibals to vote, and he did, so that's at least nine people likely to turn out there.
posted by tel3path at 8:34 PM on June 7 [2 favorites]


Wonderful post. Thank you, though I fear my fellow countrymen and woman are heading for the cliff in grand lemming style as only the British can.
The leader of one of the worlds oldest and venerable democracies wants to proudly
"Rip up human rights laws". It makes you want to fucking weep.
posted by adamvasco at 8:48 PM on June 7 [9 favorites]


It seems as though a lot of the Conservative's arguments boil down to "We may be punching the electorate in the face, but can you really trust Labour to punch as effectively as us?", to which the media then responds with debates about punching efficiency, fist power and the fortitude needed to punch hard enough.
posted by bystander at 9:19 PM on June 7 [23 favorites]


Wordshore, that article talks about a seachange every 30 years but claims it started early with Blair. It did not. Blair was incredibly right wing. Corbyn isn't.
posted by tel3path at 9:26 PM on June 7


I'm glad that this post gave UKIP a position in line with their actual standing in the current parliament and polling. That happens so rarely in political coverage.
posted by ckape at 10:04 PM on June 7 [6 favorites]


I'm glad that this post gave UKIP a position in line with their actual standing in the current parliament and polling. That happens so rarely in political coverage.

Cheers; that was a deliberate thing. I stopped watching programmes like Question Time long ago as they were endlessly a platform for the serial election loser Farage/the boy Nuttall to churn "everything is the fault of the EU/immigrants" over and over. And as for the credibility of Neil Hamilton...
posted by Wordshore at 10:20 PM on June 7 [6 favorites]


I live in a Labour safe seat, and I've had one single piece of non-Labour election leafleting from Theresa May and her Conservatives (an obvious c+p job the size of a postcard ). The only way I know that there are actual other candidates is because I've been on the Council website. So, no real choice at all, here.

Safe seat or no, I broke through my anxiety barrier to get talking to a few people locally who were chatting about how they've been warned about the closure of the Sure Start centres to let them know that Labour has specifically pledged to keep them open. They don't warrant a mention in the Conservative manifesto.

Good luck everyone, and thanks once again to Wordshore for the post and best wishes to the mods.
posted by threetwentytwo at 10:57 PM on June 7 [3 favorites]


Thanks for this post, Wordshore. I've done as much as my mental wellbeing has allowed, and while the preponderance of overt support I've been able to see locally is for the Lib Dem candidate, I think this is on a knife edge, and the most recent 150 years of history favours the Tories in this constituency. I'm desperately, desperately heartbroken for my country, which hasn't hurt itself* this badly since its civil war.

I suspect we'll be back in the polls before too long. If we're very lucky, it'll be before Brexit, to get a mandate for remaining in the single market under some kind of EEA-like deal the EU works out to avoid getting splattered with the debris from the UK's implosion. That's my best case realistic scenario.

What's also horrid is how the Potemkin competence that Theresa May shows is so clearly persuasive for those who are less engaged. And clearly the whole "everything's so bad, you can't trust other people" schtick really seems to work.

I don't know what my future brings. Financially, I can't stay where I am in England, not in a public sector job. And I'm only just back on the right track after a 15 years ago (metaphorical) car-crash which derailed all my plans in my early-mid 20s. I don't want to move again. Especially after an abuser bollocksed me up 2 years ago, too. So, yeah, fuck anyone who votes Tory.

*Of course, it's hurt many many other places, and part of what's causing my heartbreak is the amount of effort I've put into finding the way to love this country while not endorsing its crimes. And the predominant sentiment of the people wrecking the country is a 1980s football thug's "everyone hates us; we don't care".
posted by ambrosen at 10:58 PM on June 7 [7 favorites]


It is 7am and polling stations are now open. Fifteen hours to determine (possibly) the next five years.
posted by Wordshore at 11:01 PM on June 7 [5 favorites]


And as for the credibility of Neil Hamilton...

In the runup to the 97 election, when Hamilton was knee-deep in the Cash for Questions scandal, my great-uncle lived in Tatton. He was massively unimpressed with Hamilton; he ranted about how he'd always voted Tory but Hamilton was clearly a crook, couldn't be trusted, etc etc etc.

Little while after the 97 election were talking politics and someone asks him what it was like to switch your vote after a long period of party loyalty.

"Oh, no, I voted for Hamilton."
"WHAT? But - but - you hate him! You think he's a crook! He IS a crook!"
"Yes... but I've always voted Tory."

UK politics, ladies and gentlemen.
posted by Catseye at 11:12 PM on June 7 [17 favorites]


It’s politics when you have FPTP voting: vote for the crook or risk the other lot getting in.
posted by pharm at 11:31 PM on June 7 [6 favorites]


With this level of certainty of a Tory victory I assume the rest of you lot are voting eigher Tory or Monster Raving Loony.
posted by tel3path at 11:50 PM on June 7


This has felt pretty bloody long for being a snap election (yes, I know it's not even remotely as bad as the two year absurdity of American campaigns, but it's still been grating).
posted by Happy Dave at 11:56 PM on June 7 [3 favorites]


I've been living overseas for so long that I'm not allowed to vote anymore, which makes this election a uniquely dispiriting experience.

I'm hoping against hope that sense will prevail and the youth vote will show up to give the Tories the kicking they so richly deserve.
posted by ZipRibbons at 12:19 AM on June 8 [2 favorites]


Rest in power to Emily Davidson, killed 104 years ago today campaigning for women's right to vote. (No pressure, 18-24 women...)
posted by Catseye at 12:23 AM on June 8 [16 favorites]


It’s great to see that PEB from the Natural Law Party again. They truly set a new standard for British democratic nuttiness. I would be fascinated to read a good journalistic long read about what the fuck was going on there.
posted by Bloxworth Snout at 12:47 AM on June 8 [3 favorites]


Another party for the "other parties standing in this election include..." section is the Something New Party.

It was set up by a friend - he's one of their two candidates - but I think it's worth mentioning for their digital-age approach. The manifesto is open for everyone to contribute to - I added Maciej's proposals for behavioural advertising to it.

Anyway, I need to get off to the polling station and place my X.
posted by amcewen at 12:57 AM on June 8 [1 favorite]


My constituency is probably safe Tory - 2k majority last time - despite languid campaigning by my cat. Across the water is more of a worry, one of the few Labour seats in the south-east but very vulnerable. May was nosing around yesterday at the bowling club.
posted by paduasoy at 1:04 AM on June 8 [4 favorites]




I posted about a million comments with links in the last thread. Don't want to repeat them but the polls, the campaign strategies of which seats they're visiting, the reports of "doorstep sentiment", the bookies odds... they're all pointing to the Tories being ahead to some degree. They could all be wrong. But they might be right.

Even so, I think this scale of a Tory victory makes a huge difference. May's agenda of ultra-hard Brexit, obliterating human rights, changing all voting systems to FPTP, privatising social care etc will be hard or impossible to get through if she doesn't have a huge majority.

On the other side, if Labour lose badly, the Labour right will come storming back with the attitude that the voters will tolerate only the tiniest of modifications to Conservative policies. They'll feel absolutely vindicated that offering a positive campaign, significant policy differences and an alternative to grinding austerity are all terrible ideas. Then it's back to the slow death of Pasokification, watching a centre left bereft of positive ideas evaporate votes in all directions as in Greece, France, the Netherlands.

Even if the Tories win, I think the scale of that victory makes a huge difference to the fate of the nation.
posted by TheophileEscargot at 1:25 AM on June 8 [9 favorites]


Voted. Time for breakfast and then I'll be out on the streets dragging all y'all to the booth.
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 1:25 AM on June 8 [2 favorites]


I think someone posted this in the last thread, but posting here again because I LOLed:
CAROLINE! THAT WAS THE LAST OF THE ELECTION FUND!
posted by EndsOfInvention at 1:33 AM on June 8 [14 favorites]


Just realised that this will be my two year old's fifth visit to the polling station (one in-utero, but still).

No wonder people are tired of elections!
posted by threetwentytwo at 1:48 AM on June 8 [7 favorites]


(Re: Mail voting. It could be worse. You could receive your voting packet the same day it's due physically at a specific address, several hundred kilometres away in the Nation's Capital.

British friends of mine living in New Zealand got their postal vote forms today, due physically in the UK by tomorrow. (Luckily they lived in Brixton which is part of a safe Labour seat, but it's still not good).

Can't see past a Tory win here unfortunately. Corbyn looks set to improve a bit on Labour's 2015 result at least, and hopefully there'll be some kind of truce between the leftists and the centrists in the Labour party where they agree that the Tories are the real enemy, and to start and finish their internal debates behind closed doors, and to then come together.
posted by Pink Frost at 1:59 AM on June 8 [1 favorite]


OMG IT'S A POLITICAL SHITSHOW POST THAT ISN'T ABOUT THE US I AM SO GRATEFUL THANK YOU UNIVERSE
posted by hippybear at 2:15 AM on June 8 [13 favorites]


Should he be worried? I've heard Richmond is generally a conservative stronghold.

There are actually two Richmond constituencies. One in Yorkshire where all the wealthy Yorkshire folk like and which is very solidly Conservative. The other in Surrey, and that is currently the only non-Conservative seat in that county. It has a history of being lib-dem, went blue with over-privileged fake liberal Zac Goldsmith in 2010 and again in 2015 and when he quit was taken back by the lib dems in a 2016 by-election. The majority is under 2000, with Labour a very, very distant 3rd, so shenanigans there is potentially significant.
posted by biffa at 2:20 AM on June 8 [3 favorites]




There were no dogs at my polling station this morning but I did see a window cat next door. Last time I was also a proxy voter in Hackney for an overseas friend so I am quite glad that I only had to go to one polling station this time as it was very nerve-wracking trying to get out of Brighton on southern fail to get to the second polling station.

Also, it was double the chance for evil voting hand, which is always my irrational voting fear.
posted by halcyonday at 2:57 AM on June 8 [4 favorites]


it was very nerve-wracking trying to get out of Brighton on southern fail to get to the second polling station.

Yikes, I'm proxy voting again this year but thankfully for someone also in Brighton Pavilion!

Speaking of Brighton, the Greens stood down in Brighton Kemptown this year to help Labour. Last election the Tories beat Labour by less than 700 votes, and there were 3,000 Green votes - judging by this poll from yesterday it's done the job. Of course Labour didn't reciprocate in Brighton Pavilion 🙄 but I think Caroline Lucas will steamroller that again anyway.
posted by EndsOfInvention at 3:07 AM on June 8 [5 favorites]


I noticed that the Tory candidate for Brighton Pavilion lives in Reading. Everyone else had a registered address in Brighton, even the UKIP candidate.
posted by halcyonday at 3:30 AM on June 8 [2 favorites]


10.5 hours till voting closes and the exit poll. Prediction time: prediction is, of course, not necessarily who you hope or want to win.

Who do you think it will be? If with a majority, by how many in a range of ten; if a hung parliament, then which is the largest party?

I'm in pessimist corner and am predicting a Conservative majority of 60 to 70. I hope I am very wrong.
posted by Wordshore at 3:34 AM on June 8


There were no dogs at my polling station this morning

They're hanging out on twitter these days.
posted by effbot at 3:36 AM on June 8 [1 favorite]


Tory victory. The doubt for me is how long they hold off on the leadership challenge. My inner bastard would do it within six months. Their inner bastards, surprisingly to people who know me, have had much more practice.
posted by vbfg at 3:39 AM on June 8 [2 favorites]


I cannot vote as an EU citizen but in my constituency the race is between Patrick Grady, the SNP MP who held surgeries [town hall meetings] for EU citizens & families post-Brexit despite nobody being able to vote for him and Patrick Harvie, the openly bisexual Scottish Green MSP who has been called "the voice of the irresponsible left-led anti-family anti-christian gay whales against the bomb coalition" by the Daily Mail.

My neighbourhood is such a bubble.
posted by kariebookish at 3:42 AM on June 8 [9 favorites]


Their inner bastards,

And their outer bastards. I mean they are like 100% bastard.

Prediction time:
Tory victory. Blarg. No idea how big.
posted by EndsOfInvention at 3:42 AM on June 8 [3 favorites]


For the last two elections I have had a pretty good feel for the results prior to election day. Even with the EU referendum and the last couple of US Presidential elections I have called the correct result.

For this election, I have no idea. I fear a Tory victory and I hope for a Labour one, but it is all emotion and no reasoning involved.

Prediction: I really don't know.
posted by antiwiggle at 3:43 AM on June 8 [1 favorite]


One result I'm looking out for is Shipley, where Philip Davies is defending his seat. The (as yet unmentioned in this thread?) Women's Equality Party is fielding their leader Sophie Walker there. This gives some detail as to why.
posted by edd at 3:54 AM on June 8 [5 favorites]


My seat is a LibDem/SNP marginal, with the Conservatives and Labour very far behind. So Con and Lab are hardly campaigning at all, and LDs are going hard on a single issue we-hate-the-SNP-more-than-the-others-do stance (which I personally feel is not the most pressing issue facing our future these days but you do you, LibDems).

However. This was once a very very safe Tory seat. It was held by the Conservatives or the Unionists (their predecessors here) from the early 1930s until 1997. Today, they have so poor a chance they're not even bothering with leaflets.

So I will remind myself of that this time round, when it seems like most of England and most of the over-40s are an unshakeable wall of blue. Nothing's permanent. Nothing's forever.
posted by Catseye at 3:59 AM on June 8 [7 favorites]


Good links, edd (dammit, I should have included something about the astonishingly brazen misogynist Davies in the FPP - sorry for missing him out).
posted by Wordshore at 3:59 AM on June 8


FWIW, the 538 take is roughly equal probability of: Tory landslide, narrow Tory victory, hung parliament.

They've been doing the "there are X alternatives, and the probabilities for each are therefore 1/X" quite a bit lately; just the other day it was roughly equally likely that the labour polls numbers were too high or too low.

They're also the only ones highlighting that new pollster that popped up yesterday predicting a Labour vote majority (+3%), a pollster using a new method that lets them "poll billions of users in a matter of seconds". In case YouGov's "let's extrapolate from sets too small to have any statistical value, get our name on all the front pages, and then write a bunch of blog posts on why it wasn't actually a poll and why you should ignore it unless it turns out to be right" approach wasn't weird enough.
posted by effbot at 4:02 AM on June 8 [1 favorite]


pharm: It’s politics when you have FPTP voting: vote for the crook or risk the other lot getting in.

Just about the case for me this morning where the local MP was a Labour Brexiteer.
posted by toamouse at 4:06 AM on June 8 [1 favorite]


There are a load of first time volunteers out today (me included).
The neighbouring constituencies are mainly lib dem / Tory battlegrounds so there are quite a few volunteers who've voted tactically and then come here to campaign.

I really hope that pollsters have underestimated the tactical vote and also the enthusiasm.

I also hope that even if the Tories win we can retain that enthusiasm.
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 4:07 AM on June 8 [8 favorites]


I also have no feel for this. I think turnout is looking good, and I think that will hurt the Tories, but I can't say clearer than ±20 either side of an absolute majority for them. I presume there'll be a grand anti-Tory coalition if it is a hung parliament, but still worry about the Lib Dems going into coalition again.
posted by ambrosen at 4:09 AM on June 8 [1 favorite]


pharm: It’s politics when you have FPTP voting: vote for the crook or risk the other lot getting in.

It works well for the powers that be. So much so that it is a Conservative manifesto commitment (and thus not blockable by the Lords) to replace all voting systems for local councils with FPTP.

The Tories will not be happy until they're the UK's equivalent of Singapore's People's Action Party; relieved of the undignified pantomime of having to angle for votes and free to rule as it is their place to do. I suspect that soon we may get such a settlement.
posted by acb at 4:09 AM on June 8 [3 favorites]


My prediction is that Dimbleby will crush all hope at around 10.05 this evening.
posted by biffa at 4:11 AM on June 8 [8 favorites]


Every time someone cheers on the Youth Vote as the Saviour of the left, I remember poor McGovern's campaign.
posted by rum-soaked space hobo at 4:11 AM on June 8 [2 favorites]


Also - this is a useful list of expected declaration times if you want to keep an eye out for any particular constituency result.
posted by edd at 4:15 AM on June 8 [2 favorites]


I presume there'll be a grand anti-Tory coalition if it is a hung parliament, but still worry about the Lib Dems going into coalition again.

When the Lib Dems went into coalition with the Tories, they were headed by Cameron, a charming Blairoid centrist with a knack for flattery and rapport. Now, the Tories are headed by a brittle authoritarian who melts down like a broken robot when things aren't tightly controlled and does photo opportunities in sealed warehouses full of volunteers. I can't see her being as good at persuasion in a situation where she doesn't have force to bring to bear.

It'll be like the Gillard minority government in Australia a few terms ago: hung parliament, and a bunch of independents (mostly centrist, though some ornery oddballs) had to decide between a centrist Labor leader (Julia Gillard) and a pugnacious alpha-male of the hard-right (Tony Abbott). They chose Gillard, presumably because Abbott's alpha-dominance displays (shirtfronting, biting into raw onions, and such) failed to persuade. Of course, what happened later was that Gillard was under withering fire from the right-wing press throughout her term, and Abbott ended up getting the job after the next election.
posted by acb at 4:16 AM on June 8 [2 favorites]


I think technically it's merely convention that the lords don't block manifesto promises.
Not a solid rule. Though since our Constitution is all based on conventions and traditions and winks and handshakes and so on it's hard to say what might happen if a government tried to pass seriously egregious policies.
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 4:17 AM on June 8 [1 favorite]


a pollster using a new method that lets them "poll billions of users in a matter of seconds"

Total number of registered voters in the UK : ~0.046 billion
🤔
posted by EndsOfInvention at 4:19 AM on June 8 [5 favorites]


I'm about to brave the rain and go out and vote in my very first general election (my first vote in the UK was for West Midlands mayor and that... didn't go so well). As a newly-minted citizen, I was so excited to see the kinds of leaflets I would get through my door. My constituency (Coventry South) is typically considered safe Labour but data from the Brexit voting is making everyone nervous. So there are plenty of positive Labour leaflets, being handed out by loads of volunteers, many of whom have taken time off work to campaign.

In typical conservative fashion, both the Tories and UKIP decided on a market solution instead and hired companies to stuff the leaflets in doors. Only when I say "companies" I really should have made that noun singular, because it seems like they hired the same one. And to be efficient, leafleting companies sometimes stuff one into another, so you'll open a Chinese takeaway leaflet and see an advert for gutter cleaning. This resulted in the Tory leaflet that came through my door. When I opened it, the glossy A5 inside was... UKIP. Seemed accurate enough.
posted by tractorfeed at 4:23 AM on June 8 [27 favorites]


Youth turnout rates are bothering me a lot these days. They started falling fast in the 90s and they've barely climbed back up since. And it's not just that people are less likely to vote when they're younger but become more likely as they age - every generation's 18-24 year olds voted more than the current one.

This is particularly concerning these days, when intergenerational inequality is increasing. Those born in the 40s and 50s do well, those born in the 80s and 90s... not so much. And again that's not just people gaining wealth as they age - that's young generations facing worse prospects than their parents.

And yet the old vote, the young don't, and so parties court the over-50s because they'll always turn out. We'll protect the continuing increasing value of your houses (when more wealth is tied up in housing, and more young people are shut out of the market). We'll keep the triple lock on your pensions (although your children and grandchildren who are paying for your pensions now probably won't even get a state pension of their own in the future).

So it's good to see efforts to get the younger vote out, although I still feel like we're not looking at this issue deeply enough if it's still patronising lectures about Voting Is Important. Why are they staying away in such numbers? Housing inequality (renters always less likely to vote, young increasingly likely to rent, politicians reluctant to fix the housing market and risk pissing off the baby boomers)? Total disillusionment?

I don't know what the answer is but I think we need to look at it as a big and important societal disenfranchisement issue. All this "just get off Snapchat and vote, kids!" stuff we always see around election time feels increasingly like the progressive version of "you'd all have houses by now if you stopped buying avocado toast."
posted by Catseye at 4:40 AM on June 8 [14 favorites]


A possibly hopeful correlation: the youth vote collapsed as labour turned rightwards. Perhaps it's turn back to the left is what young voters needed?
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 4:48 AM on June 8 [7 favorites]


Just off to vote now. I'm actually in Jeremy Corbyn's constituency, and he always gets in by a huge majority, so I usually vote Green, but this time I won't. He's been our MP for decades, and does a very good job indeed. I've had several conversations with random people here who have stories of how helpful he has been when they've taken problems to him, and many of them aren't even Labour voters. He's been a spectacularly good constituency MP, and very principled indeed, which is rare. Not sure how good a PM he would be, but I would really like to find out, although I'm not too sure about the prospect of Diane Abbott as Home Secretary (she would be replacing Boris Johnson though, so, you know...).

Realistically, the best we can probably hope for is a drastic reduction in the Conservative majority, and a bloody nose for May. As with every election, I'm hoping to avoid election coverage until tomorrow, but will probably stay up all night, drinking gin and cursing.

Worst-case scenario, I can always move back to Ireland, which is looking likely to elect their first gay Taoiseach.
posted by Fuchsoid at 4:49 AM on June 8 [6 favorites]


So it's good to see efforts to get the younger vote out, although I still feel like we're not looking at this issue deeply enough if it's still patronising lectures about Voting Is Important. Why are they staying away in such numbers? Housing inequality (renters always less likely to vote, young increasingly likely to rent, politicians reluctant to fix the housing market and risk pissing off the baby boomers)? Total disillusionment?

I know two young voters (well, younger than me anyway; in the 20-30 bracket) who aren't voting because they're on holiday (separately) and missed the proxy/postal vote deadline. At least one of them would definitely have voted Labour otherwise. I'm not sure if they booked their holiday after the deadline or if they're just idiots. But there's one small bit of data.
posted by EndsOfInvention at 4:52 AM on June 8 [1 favorite]


And yet the old vote, the young don't, and so parties court the over-50s because they'll always turn out. We'll protect the continuing increasing value of your houses (when more wealth is tied up in housing, and more young people are shut out of the market). We'll keep the triple lock on your pensions (although your children and grandchildren who are paying for your pensions now probably won't even get a state pension of their own in the future).

You may have answered the question you pose later, here. Why should young people vote if both parties are only interested in providing for homeowners and pensioners? If Labour and the Tories are competing over who can best protect house prices and upper middle incomes, what's in it for the young, underemployed renter?
posted by Dysk at 4:54 AM on June 8 [6 favorites]


I'm not too sure about the prospect of Diane Abbott as Home Secretary (she would be replacing Boris Johnson though, so, you know...).

Amber Rudd. Johnson is Foreign Sec., as difficult to believe as that is.
posted by biffa at 4:56 AM on June 8 [4 favorites]


If Labour and the Tories are competing over who can best protect house prices and upper middle incomes, what's in it for the young, underemployed renter?

No 9k fee to go to university? An NHS that doesn't charge on the door? A meaningful policy on climate change? A better chance of keeping some of the basic benefits of European partnership? Better protection of Labour rights? A government that doesn't think zero hours contracts are great for flexibility? A government which would prefer disabled people not to kill themselves rather than claim benefit?
posted by biffa at 5:01 AM on June 8 [19 favorites]


God damn, the right-wing press are gonna right-wing press, but the incessant carping on Corbyn from the Guardian has just exhausted me these last years. Top ten most read articles this morning had "Press gang up on Jeremy Corbyn in election day coverage" in the upper half, and in the lower half, "I can’t believe in May or Corbyn, but the ballot is sacred", which just about summed up the whole thing. Urgh.
posted by ominous_paws at 5:03 AM on June 8 [6 favorites]


Yeah, this election is a little different to the last few. We were talking general electoral trends there, I thought, not this election in particular.
posted by Dysk at 5:03 AM on June 8 [2 favorites]


Worst-case scenario, I can always move back to Ireland, which is looking likely to elect their first gay Taoiseach.

He seems to be a bit of an asshole, though.
posted by effbot at 5:04 AM on June 8 [6 favorites]


Because at the last go round, I believe what Labour had to offer was the Edstone and mugs emblazoned with anti-immigrant policy promises.
posted by Dysk at 5:05 AM on June 8 [5 favorites]



>FWIW, the 538 take is roughly equal probability of: Tory landslide, narrow Tory victory, hung parliament.

They've been doing the "there are X alternatives, and the probabilities for each are therefore 1/X" quite a bit latel


But there are more than those three possibilities, in principle. "Narrow Labor victory" and "Labor landslide" are not on that list, for instance (and ditto with the other parties.)
posted by OnceUponATime at 5:14 AM on June 8 [2 favorites]


Worst-case scenario, I can always move back to Ireland, which is looking likely to elect their first gay Taoiseach.

Don't get your hopes up, he's practically a tory himself. Anti-choice, anti-poor, spoke vociferously against marriage equality but happy to wear the rainbow flag, very quick to dive into UK-style welfare shaming politics. Contrast the international headlines with the opinions of LGBT folks living in Ireland, which are a lot more negative.

I'm in a solidly labour island surrounded by tories and even now the odd (old, tatty) UKIP banner. If the tories win by anything other than a landslide, it'll put the lie to 'strong and stable'. Corbyn's been performing very well and May's looked like a joke. I suspect a leadership challenge to May in the future.
posted by ocular shenanigans at 5:15 AM on June 8 [7 favorites]


Just off to vote now. I'm actually in Jeremy Corbyn's constituency, and he always gets in by a huge majority, so I usually vote Green, but this time I won't. He's been our MP for decades, and does a very good job indeed. I've had several conversations with random people here who have stories of how helpful he has been when they've taken problems to him, and many of them aren't even Labour voters. He's been a spectacularly good constituency MP, and very principled indeed, which is rare. Not sure how good a PM he would be, but I would really like to find out, although I'm not too sure about the prospect of Diane Abbott as Home Secretary (she would be replacing Boris Johnson though, so, you know...).

I'm in Islington North. I've voted for him in the past, but am voting Green now. Here is my reasoning:

My reasoning is: of the two potential PMs (and, let's face it, the Lib Dems don't stand a chance in this election, let alone the Greens), I want Corbyn; it's a qualitative distinction, not a quantitative. However, as a voter in Islington North, my sole lever of influence is to vote for him or for an opposing candidate. Corbyn will sweep Islington North, almost certainly by a strong majority; the others aren't putting in a huge effort in campaining (the Tories seem to have given up altogether on this seat, and the Lib Dems sent a few generic leaflets). So, my choice is: am I counted in the incumbent's majority, or in a dissenting minority. And given Labour's capitulation to Brexit, a catastrophic, isolationist policy, dissent is more important than ever.

I was previously considering voting Lib Dems, on the assumption that this election would be a Brexit referendum, and that in the liberal, cosmopolitan Islington, the Lib Dems could muster a pro-Remain majority to claim the scalp of one of the pro-Brexit parties' leaders, sending shockwaves through the system and forcing a reappraisal. This turned out not to be the case; the election became about other issues (the Tories claiming a sweeping mandate to remake the country in their own mean-spirited, authoritarian image, and Labour offering a genuine alternative with a chance to get in), and the polls tightened, meaning that Labour wouldn't be wiped out as they were expected to be. Nonetheless, the levers of control for an Islington North voter remain what they are. Given that the Green Party represent a positive and forward-looking direction more than the Lib Dems (who are basically a hedge between the other two parties; socially liberal neoliberals, as it were), they would be my dissenting vote.

I can imagine a chorus of incredulous Labour supporters exasperated that, given the chance to put a X by Jeremy Corbyn's name, I should decline. I reject that model, as that's not how voting works. Voting isn't about cheering harder for your team, or demonstrating your commitment or idealism; that way lies the Trump presidency by way of Jill Stein. In an election, one has a minuscule amount of influence mapped entirely to one electorate. Assuming that one wants to use one's vote to make a difference, rather than a statement about the rightness of one's intentions, if it's a non-safe seat, and it's first-past-the-post, one should vote for the least-worst candidate that's likely to be in the top two, holding one's nose if necessary. In a safe seat with no prospect of wild swings against the incumbent, one's vote has little value in deciding the outcome, and its value is mostly in the case that, at some point, a journalist or pundit may look at the voting breakdown and deduce dissatisfaction with some area of policy or desire for a new agenda from that.
posted by acb at 5:16 AM on June 8 [11 favorites]


Because at the last go round, I believe what Labour had to offer was the Edstone and mugs emblazoned with anti-immigrant policy promises.

Good news, they picked a new leader after that and he seems less of a dickhead. He's not perfect and his party is divided against itself but its better than the alternative. I'm only voting Labour as they look to have the best chance of unseating the evil Tory fuck here. Until I saw the last constituency projection I would have voted Lib Dem. I'm actually a member of the Green Party. This is an election for nose holding and hoping to do anything to slow the shit avalanche.
posted by biffa at 5:20 AM on June 8 [5 favorites]


Why should young people vote if both parties are only interested in providing for homeowners and pensioners?

And yet they'd switch to schmoozing underemployed renters in a heartbeat, if they voted more than their grandparents.

My (entirely guesswork) theory: we have a societal disenfranchisement issue driven by a general feeling that intergenerational inequality isn't really a problem here. Partly from the people who think the kids would be fine if they just stopped going to Starbucks, of course. But bigger - because the kind of political dialogue we have now doesn't even see the concerns of younger generations as real issues. Not just that the politicians side with the older generations, but that there's no space for even having a discussion with sides in the first place.

E.g. - housing. Massive problem. Nobody's willing to tackle it. But more than that, nobody's willing to even present it as a problem that feasibly can be tackled. There's just this overwhelming sense of "oh, it's a shame for young people that house prices shot up, but house prices do that all by themselves and there's nothing we can do about it now apart from mop up a bit of the damage." Or: work. Wasn't it nice when we had full employment and jobs for life, etc, or wasn't it nice when people had a proper work ethic, choose whichever appeals - but there's no space for e.g. "we once built a welfare system that protected people through the employment system of the mid-20th century, and we can build a welfare system that protects people now work has changed."

I know Labour and to a lesser extent the other left-of-centres are trying to tackle bits of this, but when they go anywhere near broadening the debate around the problem, everyone dismisses it as totally unrealistic. And if you're say 19 and you're eligible to vote for the first time, how must that come across? Not only "no political party is willing to tackle the problems that face you" but worse - "nobody in the political system thinks you and your problems are worth serious debate anyway."

Corbyn seems to have tapped into some of that disenfranchised feeling but it's pretty well embedded by now. I don't think this is easy to fix. And I don't think many people even want it fixing.
posted by Catseye at 5:20 AM on June 8 [11 favorites]


Voted Lib Dem earlier, although I'm in Philip Hammond's 22k majority Tory constituency so it will make fuck all difference. I'm going to head up to Richmond Park after work to try and help keep that seat out of Zac Goldsmith's hands.

If I was in Maidenhead, I'd vote for Lord Buckethead (strong, not entirely stable, leadership). He's a bit of a veteran, having stood in 1987 against Thatcher and 1992 against Major. He took part in a local hustings on local jobs, and is on Twitter.

I'm fucking terrified for the exit poll.
posted by MattWPBS at 5:25 AM on June 8 [5 favorites]


In case anyone needs to catch up: The 2017 general election explained for non-Brits (guardian video)
posted by effbot at 5:27 AM on June 8 [3 favorites]


I have a Labour MP who voted against article 50 and is by all accounts a good constituency MP. And the Conservatives came second last time. But the Lib-Dem candidate is a friend of mine, and I’m sure she would make an excellent MP.

So I will be voting Lib-Dem, but I hate the fact that our stupid voting system means I can’t give my friend my vote with the enthusiasm she deserves.
posted by Bloxworth Snout at 5:30 AM on June 8 [1 favorite]


Good news, they picked a new leader after that and he seems less of a dickhead

I am aware. Again, we were talking about youth turnout trends, which until at least tonight will necessarily largely be focused on previous elections.
posted by Dysk at 5:30 AM on June 8 [3 favorites]




Lib Dems cause violence again - media physically fight to get shot of Tim Farron leaving the polling station.

That's the most attention that anyone's paid to Farron this election.
posted by Talez at 5:47 AM on June 8 [8 favorites]


Apart from suggesting people go get a brew.
posted by MattWPBS at 5:56 AM on June 8 [3 favorites]


Urgh Im so stressed that I actually shared my toddler's nap with him and there are still eight hours of pure waiting to go. But it's OK because I nearly dressed him in a blue top but at the last minute I changed it and now the toddler's top is deepest red.

Which is a long way of giving my
Prediction: which is sorry, but it's going to be an increased Tory majority, and a very very sore head tomorrow.
posted by threetwentytwo at 6:00 AM on June 8 [1 favorite]


I'm in Southwark, where I voted for Neil Coyle (Lab) last time, but for a bunch of reasons (including insane minutiae things to do with property development) I voted for Simon Hughes (LibDem). The first person who asks whether I voted for Jeremy gets a mouthful, though. I'm really getting tired of the presidential bullshit.

What I expect is a Tory majority reduced enough from their initial projections to take the shine of Theresa (although her woeful campaigning has done that enough already). What I'd like is for them to lose enough seats that she and they are humiliated even if still in power. At the moment I'm just seeing all this as a preamble to the next PM, after the traditional flurry of knife-wielding in the shadows, who is going to be an astonishing disaster whoever it is. Terrifyingly, the most likely candidate seems to me to be Ian Duncan Smith, who has been carved from pure condensed evil. Already, the only sensible reaction to political coverage on the TV is to turn the volume down and play Take A Bow by Muse on a loop. I don't even especially like Muse, but that's my theme song for politics.

(Also works for Trump.)

That said there is no outcome that will not, in the long run, be catastrophic, and I don't think there's such a thing as better or worse catastrophe.
posted by Grangousier at 6:03 AM on June 8 [3 favorites]


I'm in Southwark too, and voted for Coyle on my way to work this morning. I'm expecting Simon Hughes, though, to reclaim his seat: he's very popular around these parts, has a lot of history in the area, and Coyle hasn't exactly covered himself in glory as an MP. I rationalise my vote for him on the basis that he at least had the guts to defy the Party whip and vote against the triggering of Article 50, which I can at least respect.
posted by Sonny Jim at 6:17 AM on June 8 [2 favorites]


I was in my local polling station at 7:30, at the local rugby club, where the two clerks hadn't still quite finished setting up shop. I was the only punter there at the time. Of the six candidates in Newport East, where Labour are defending a 4000+ majority, only one isn't affiliated with any of the recognised parties: a 22-year-old politics student who's running as an independent & standing for peace, love, unity & a soft Brexit.

If I were to bet on the outcome, it would be a small amount on Mrs. May winning with an increased majority: a wager I'd be delighted to lose.
posted by misteraitch at 6:28 AM on June 8 [1 favorite]


My hope is that we see lost seats for the Tories, which would be enough to cripple 'I need to increase my strong and stable mandate' May.

My total dream would be them losing an outright majority.
posted by MattWPBS at 6:30 AM on June 8 [7 favorites]


Just throwing this in (sorry for the Torygraph link but it's a nice article) - weirdest UK polling stations
posted by KateViolet at 6:37 AM on June 8 [2 favorites]


Anyway, now that I've been forced out of the staff cafeteria by a fire alarm, I'll be spending the rest of the afternoon in my office trying to finish the conference paper I have to give on Saturday, while listening to this cheerful offering from She Makes War, "I Want My Country Back." Because: yeah.
posted by Sonny Jim at 6:37 AM on June 8 [3 favorites]


Watching from Canada, I've been struck by the similarities between May and our former Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper, right down to the robotic personalities, autocratic tendencies and "strong, stable, majority" mantra. Best of luck getting rid of her, as we eventually got rid of Harper.
posted by The Card Cheat at 6:39 AM on June 8 [7 favorites]


I voted (or at least, I'm pretty sure my proxy vote did). It's the last time I can vote in the UK.
posted by scruss at 6:43 AM on June 8 [2 favorites]


this cheerful offering from She Makes War

My friend Viv is in that, playing bass. Small world, innit?
posted by Grangousier at 6:44 AM on June 8 [5 favorites]


Tweet from Elizabeth Windsor‏ @Queen_UK:

"Thinking of scrapping the election and the whole sodding lot of them with it and returning to Absolute Monarchy. Who's in?"
posted by Wordshore at 6:47 AM on June 8 [7 favorites]


I work in an office that is 90+% British and 80+% Labour-sympathising in Hong Kong. Many colleagues did not get their postal votes or manage to set up their proxies, and the boss is a vocal, old-school Tory. Tomorrow is going to be a long day.
posted by mdonley at 6:48 AM on June 8 [2 favorites]


It's the last time I can vote in the UK.

Could you still come back? There is so much to make it tempting!
posted by biffa at 6:49 AM on June 8 [2 favorites]


Not sure how good a PM he would be, but I would really like to find out, although I'm not too sure about the prospect of Diane Abbott as Home Secretary

This piece by Jack Monroe on Diane Abbott is the one for you. She would make a better Home Secretary than most. I'll take a single figure-muddling interview over a concerted party effort to avoid publishing figures any day.
posted by rory at 6:49 AM on June 8 [11 favorites]


In any case, Diane Abbott stepped down as Shadow Home Secretary yesterday.
posted by Sonny Jim at 6:51 AM on June 8 [2 favorites]


Hadn't realized that my constituency was a “battleground”, and YouGov are tipping LibDem Jo Swinson to win. Sorry, Jo, but SNP has my vote — there's still the smell of the hopeless coalition hanging around the LDs for me.
posted by scruss at 6:54 AM on June 8 [1 favorite]


With all this doubt around, one thing I am sure of. I'm getting fuck all work done today.
posted by biffa at 7:01 AM on June 8 [1 favorite]


Oh! BBC Parliament TV channel (131 on my setup) is doing the Coney US Senate intelligence committee thing live in a few minutes, so switching my attention to that. I have set my alarm for 9pm though, when I have to make a decision between Labour and Green and go out to vote for one of them (I live 90 seconds walk from the polling station, but don't want to push it to the wire).
posted by Wordshore at 7:02 AM on June 8 [1 favorite]


Out of curiosity, why don't you do it now? No judgement - personally I like to do it as early as I can. I can imagine, though that it would be a nice thing to do on the way to the pub.
posted by Grangousier at 7:06 AM on June 8


I live 90 seconds walk from the polling station, but don't want to push it to the wire

I couldn't vote this morning as I usually try to, and have had a vague dread all day of being hit by a bus before I can get to the polling station this evening.
posted by rory at 7:06 AM on June 8


Another Southwarker here - voted for Coyle after Hughes capitulated on tuition fees and bedroom tax. Back in Normal Politics Days I would not have been hugely keen on Coyle but he's vehemently anti-Brexit and has made a big deal about not going back on his promises like Hughes did.

The Britain Elects nowcast give the seat a 6.3% chance of changing, which seems low to me. Hughes is definitely winning the Enormous Window Sign contest if nothing else.
posted by doop at 7:14 AM on June 8 [3 favorites]


(Not that I'd be gutted either way, since afaik neither of them are *complete* dickheads. If only that were true in the rest of the country..)
posted by doop at 7:16 AM on June 8 [1 favorite]


I meant to vote this morning but then went into zombie mode and had already walked down the hill, got on the bus and was at work before remembering. I'll be home in plenty of time and have to walk past the polling station to get to our pre-election night curry & election themed film evening so not much danger of me not getting it done. Chances are it will be wasted against the incumbent but you never know, its not totally tory dominated here. Have been sure to remind all my undergrads to vote through the day.
posted by biffa at 7:18 AM on June 8 [1 favorite]


Hughes is seriously winning on the sign front. There are like 8 of them within a 1-minute walk of my front door. I got very excited when I saw my first Coyle poster on what I thought was the neighbourhood Incredibly Enthusiastic About Christmas Terrace House (which I'm sure is visible from space every December), until it was pointed out to me that it was in fact the house next door to the Christmas House. Christmas maintains strict political neutrality in my suburb, apparently.
posted by Sonny Jim at 7:21 AM on June 8 [2 favorites]


Out of curiosity, why don't you do it now?

I could have done it before but I was too busy faffing online, and I have a bundle of positive and negative reasons for both Labour and the Greens swirling around. Still shocked by how appallingly amateurish the Liberal Democrats sole leaflet is (the candidate "was a senior lecturer at the university") so they are out which makes it simpler.

Can't do it now as I want to see Senator Kamala Harris - who I am hopeful may make a good run at being US President in 2020 - question Comey.
posted by Wordshore at 7:23 AM on June 8 [3 favorites]


Well, I've at least cancelled out a vote for IDS.
please please please please please please please
posted by lucidium at 7:28 AM on June 8 [2 favorites]


I couldn't vote this morning as I usually try to, and have had a vague dread all day of being hit by a bus before I can get to the polling station this evening.

Same here and the Polls Closing In... countdown on the Guardian homepage isn't helping. Rain is horrendous here and there's a huge concert on at a venue on my route home which always slows the traffic down. I've still got 6 hours after leaving work, but I have irrationally bleak thoughts of being stuck on a bus at 9.58 and kicking myself for not getting up earlier.
posted by Catseye at 7:29 AM on June 8 [2 favorites]


There's still the smell of the hopeless coalition hanging around the LDs for me.

The next person who posts anything about the Lib Dems having had no significant impact against Tory ideas while in coalition is going to be responsible for my laptop going through the window.

HAVE YOU SEEN WHAT THE LAST TWO YEARS HAVE BEEN LIKE?
posted by MattWPBS at 7:37 AM on June 8 [20 favorites]


Matt, that's always been my opinion about the LibDems, but now you put it like that... you have a point :(
posted by KateViolet at 7:48 AM on June 8 [1 favorite]


please please please please please please please redux:

Theresa May has been reported to police over false claims she made during Friday’s BBC Question Time special about Diane Abbott and police DNA records. ... Making false statements about a candidate’s ‘character or conduct’ during an election campaign is a criminal offence under section 106 of the Representation of the People Act 1983. ... If found guilty, Mrs May would face both criminal penalties and the loss of her parliamentary seat.
posted by rory at 7:50 AM on June 8 [7 favorites]


I saw that a few days ago and hoping that it's credible. Some of the more partisan news outlets can get a bit carried away on this sort of thing.

It would be a delightful cherry on the sundae of a Tory loss though.
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 7:57 AM on June 8 [4 favorites]


Apparently Paisley is also a battleground where they expect Labour might gain from SNP. Most people I know in Paisley are utterly bemused by this as Mhairi Black is a hugely popular SNP MP with a big local profile. Who decides what constituencies are battlegrounds?

PS. token Mhairi Black maiden speech link.
posted by kariebookish at 7:58 AM on June 8 [3 favorites]


Its an interesting question as to who decides what is a battlefield (not love of course, there's none of that around). The Daily Record doesn't have Paisley as a likely battleground and perhaps more convincingly Paddy Power rate the SNP as massively odds on winners.

Which leads to another interesting question - what looks like good value in terms of betting propositions? Following on from that, are there any high profile types who might be in for a kicking this evening and which might add to the drama for the home watcher?
posted by biffa at 8:19 AM on June 8 [2 favorites]


When I got to the polling station, which is tucked up a little side-street that I never normally visit, unless to vote, I had a rather depressing flashback to voting there in the referendum last year, before everything went tits-up and the End Times began.
posted by Fuchsoid at 8:24 AM on June 8 [7 favorites]


When I got to the polling station, which is tucked up a little side-street that I never normally visit, unless to vote, I had a rather depressing flashback to voting there in the referendum last year, before everything went tits-up and the End Times began.

That's how they win. Resistance is useless, and only leads to the certainty of punishment. Far better to not try. Go into a sort of internal exile, turn to drink, drugs or escapism, because reality belongs to them.
posted by acb at 8:33 AM on June 8 [5 favorites]


Yeah or you could also just vote 'em out.

IMPOSSIBLE, THEY CRY
posted by tel3path at 8:36 AM on June 8 [5 favorites]


Looking at the Paddy Power odds page on Islington North, it's interesting to see, other than the overwhelming likelihood of Corbyn retaining his seat (1/200), the Green Party are deemed more likely to take the seat (33/1) than the Tories (40/1). I'm not sure whether that's heartening (in the sense of being surrounded overwhelmingl by non-bastards), sobering (in the sense of living in a liberal filter bubble out of touch with the rest of the UK) or worrying (we're likely to be The Enemy, much like one of those Kurdish towns in Erdogan's Turkey, and should hope that May has other fish to fry before noticing us).
posted by acb at 8:45 AM on June 8 [2 favorites]


I assume it's that leftwingers who hate Corbyn (and some of them HATE him) are more likely to mass-defect to Green than Tory.
posted by EndsOfInvention at 8:46 AM on June 8 [3 favorites]


Safe seat Conservative here, which is deeply frustrating. In any right and just world, Maria Miller would have found herself prosecuted over the expenses thing, but apparently a half-hearted 32 second apology is just as good.

Going Labour locally, as they've got the best chance of unseating her, but I'm not hopeful. Background-hoping there's enough losses to kill May's career... We can dream. The Humans Rights thing is absolutely breathtaking, although I also particularly enjoyed her "We'll just stop everyone using encryption" anti-terrorism stance. When your best plan for domestic security is literally impossible to implement, you know you've got a winner on your hands.
posted by PeteTheHair at 9:00 AM on June 8 [1 favorite]


OMG the suspense.

it's the hope
posted by tel3path at 9:02 AM on June 8 [3 favorites]


Here's today's UK good news anyway: The Scottish Episcopalians have voted to become the first mainstream church in the UK to allow same sex couples to marry in church.
posted by biffa at 9:17 AM on June 8 [12 favorites]


Plan for this evening:

Leave work in a few minutes.

Shoot arrows at archery targets for a couple of hours in the rain.

Stop by supermarket on the way home for whisky and vaguely healthy food.

Vote.

Distract myself with Netflix until 10pm.

Get exit polls from the BBC. Drink whisky.

See if the Sunderland results match the exit polls.

Celebrate/ drown my sorrows until I fall asleep on the sofa.
posted by antiwiggle at 9:18 AM on June 8 [2 favorites]


Voted because I'd forgotten how much I hate Rubio and had to leave the house.
posted by Wordshore at 9:26 AM on June 8 [13 favorites]


Voted in Walthamstow on the way into work this morning. Now perched in a pub in Southwark (it's our monthly meetup for people who enjoy talking about London transport) drinking beer. I'm fully expecting an increased Tory majority, sadly.

On the other side, if Labour lose badly, the Labour right will come storming back with the attitude that the voters will tolerate only the tiniest of modifications to Conservative policies.

I'm probably more on the centre-right side of the party, but mainly because I'm a pragmatist - get in, then pull a reverse Overton, so to speak (basically I'm a big ol' Attlee fan). One thing I would say, from the party member point of view, is that in many constituencies (including mine) the problem most of us have had isn't with Corbyn, it's with Momentum.

I mean... Jesus. In my constituency I had to watch (and fight) them whilst they made a genuine, concerted effort to de-select Stella Creasy who is a phenomenal MP. It was full on Judean People's Front level bullshittery and I came very, very close to handing in my membership over it.

So trust me, there's been plenty of pointless backstabbery from both sides of the party over the last couple of years. Which is a real fucking shame.
posted by garius at 9:42 AM on June 8 [15 favorites]


I noticed that the Tory candidate for Brighton Pavilion lives in Reading. Everyone else had a registered address in Brighton, even the UKIP candidate.

I live in the Sunderland West constituency. The Tory candidate lives in Stratford-upon-Avon, a 223 mile drive from Sunderland. I bet he had to have lessons on where to find us on a map.
posted by reynir at 9:55 AM on June 8 [3 favorites]


I have voted after a miserable journey home from work full of missed buses and torrential rain and three-year-old picked up from nursery feeling ill. Trudged into the polling station soaked through to the skin and freezing cold, carrying a sleeping sweaty incredibly heavy child, and having just found out my left boot leaks in puddles.

I think Fate is trying to set my expectations for what tomorrow's going to feel like.
posted by Catseye at 10:32 AM on June 8 [5 favorites]


Voted earlier, took me 4 minutes form the time I stepped outside to the time I was back in my house.
I'll probably need a form of ID next time.

Prediction: Tory landslide, because it's been that kind of year.
posted by fullerine at 10:53 AM on June 8


I have spent today also getting very wet in Dundee and Edinburgh - Dundee won the 'heaviest rain' poll, while Edinburgh staged a late surge in the sum-of-misery stakes by making my bus home from Waverley 25 minutes late, thus depositing considerably more total precipitation on my world-weary bod.

Yesterday, in a rather pleasant patch of Leith sunlight, I attended a Nicola Sturgeon wrap-up rallyette, and the mood was very upbeat. Main thrust of La Sturge's speech was "Do you want Tories? Thought not." and the best line was "Labour supporters, your SNP candidate believes in more of Jeremy Corbyn's principles than does Kezia'.

I am now drying out. Shortly, I shall go to vote, on my way to the shops to buy a considerable quantity of booze to take to the traditional Election Night Party chez political pals.

In a small sample of one, Devonian Junior, a millennial, did also go out in the sodding rain and did also vote, so I predict a massive and unexpected surge in the younger demographics and thus a bright new future in which the 8th June 2017 will be seen in history as the precise turning point beginning the New World Order of peace, prosperity, equality and Fully Automated Luxury Gay Space Communism which has seen us reach out to the stars, solve all earthly problems, and create a new golden age of quality TV drama.
posted by Devonian at 11:04 AM on June 8 [22 favorites]


I'm still stocking up on gin.
posted by Artw at 11:12 AM on June 8


Prediction: Tory landslide, because it's been that kind of year.

That was last year. And this isn't a state or local election in the U.S.
posted by Apocryphon at 11:17 AM on June 8 [1 favorite]


Plague of wasps then.
posted by acb at 11:25 AM on June 8 [5 favorites]


The level of despair seems quite high considering that my dog could guess the results of British elections more accurately than the polls.
posted by Automocar at 11:31 AM on June 8


When was the last time anything good happened?
posted by Artw at 11:32 AM on June 8 [7 favorites]


Oh, we underestimated the level of Tory turnout in 2015? TURN UP TORY TURNOUT TO 11 THIS TIME

That's not a methodology, that's the way I stock up on ice cream and beer when there's going to be a blizzard.
posted by Automocar at 11:33 AM on June 8 [3 favorites]


Just over two hours till depression sits in. I'm still stuck in the office, and I want to get up to Richmond Park to try and do anything to help.
posted by MattWPBS at 11:45 AM on June 8


I voted, but I can't physically bring myself to stay up anxiously waiting for results this time. I did that after the 2015 election, and Brexit, and Trump, and every layer of hope has added a fresh layer of gloom to my life. I can't afford to lose two weeks to a fresh politics-induced depression this month, so I'm just going to assume tomorrow will be as bad as today and go to bed on time.
posted by Aravis76 at 11:49 AM on June 8 [4 favorites]


The level of despair seems quite high considering that my dog could guess the results of British elections more accurately than the polls.

The polls have been wrong in the direction of underestimating the Right (which is the Tories and right-wing press barons). They are shrewd and cunning (witness the way that, by making, the Lib Dems own tuition fees, they killed electoral reform, the way they won Brexit and leveraged that into Juche-with-British-characteristics hard-Brexit, and with Labour on the ropes due to reasons too chronic to fix in one term, have written a manifesto that allows them to reshape the country in their own image). The Sun and the Daily Mail decide the political views of a significant proportion of the population, thus making England look from the outside like a nest of wasps that has collectively decided to choose National Socialism as its ideology. And now they have Cambridge Analytica, dark ads and fake news, and all the fruits of surveillance capitalism, which they can leverage to get the outcome they want. The Left doesn't have anything like that (outside of right-wing conspiracy theories about the supervillain George Soros, that is).

Labour winning an outright majority would require a literal miracle, such as the SNP collapsing and the Tories unable to harvest the windfall, or the votes of envenomed Daily Mail readers and UKIP supporters drifting towards Labour. Labour getting a minority government is just about doable, at a stretch, if they do well and can work out a deal with the Lib Dems, Greens, SNP, Plaid and a handful of independents (and as far as deal-making goes, they should have an easier time than May, a broken Dalek with all the negotiating skills that entails). The forces arrayed against this are very formidable, though. It's possible, but unlikely.
posted by acb at 11:51 AM on June 8 [3 favorites]


The level of despair seems quite high considering that my dog could guess the results of British elections more accurately than the polls.

It's a psychological survival tactic. Mithridates, he died old.
posted by Catseye at 11:53 AM on June 8 [5 favorites]


I'm out of the prediction game since Brexit and Trump, but to be clear: no way in hell do I think there's any chance of a Labour majority. I just think the chances of a Tory blowout are slim. My best guess is on Friday morning everyone will be scratching their heads and saying "May called an election for this?"
posted by Automocar at 11:55 AM on June 8 [1 favorite]




What is even happening?
posted by Artw at 12:01 PM on June 8


The kids are all right, but regrettably can't vote yet?
posted by Aravis76 at 12:03 PM on June 8


I think there's a fair argument that the demographic dip of Gen X working it's way up the age-ranges has led to massive institutional failure in the UK and US .
posted by Artw at 12:11 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


Voted this morning, spent the rest of the day trying very hard to not think about it but that vague seething anxiety you get before the dentist or an exam has been with me all day. I just want to know how bad it's going to be.

My Tory candidate in Glasgow had an address in Edinburgh, so they clearly aren't even trying here (same constituency as someone upthread, with the two Patricks who look similar to the point that I'm not entirely convinced it's not just one man really hedging his bets on getting elected).
posted by theseldomseenkid at 12:11 PM on June 8 [2 favorites]


That Twitter thread is fucking nuts though.
posted by Artw at 12:11 PM on June 8


That thread is by a Guido Fawkes type, so probably shouldn't be confused with reality. On the other hand, if some primary school really has got the kids to draw communist propaganda and refuse to take it down, they're bloody idiots.
posted by Grangousier at 12:11 PM on June 8 [4 favorites]


No such chaos at the primary school I just voted at, sadly.
posted by EndsOfInvention at 12:12 PM on June 8


Last time I voted in Glasgow, the Tory candidate had an address in Westminster. The one flyer we got from her did say she'd really enjoyed holidays in Scotland as a child, though!
posted by Catseye at 12:16 PM on June 8 [3 favorites]


What is even happening?

Something horrible probably.
posted by MattWPBS at 12:35 PM on June 8 [4 favorites]


My Corbyn-mad cousin, who at a conservative estimate has posted roughly 653 pro-Corbyn news articles to her feed so far this week, has just indicated on Facebook that she finally got around to voting this evening.

We got this.
posted by Sonny Jim at 12:56 PM on June 8 [4 favorites]


On the lighter side: Here are the UK’s most infuriating constituency names. "I have a lot of feelings about Britain’s constituency names: that is to say, a lot of them are just wrong."
posted by effbot at 1:03 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


Uggggggggggh I just found out that BBC America is just showing Star Trek and I can't stream BBC here due to region restrictions. Where can I as an American watch election returns?
posted by chainsofreedom at 1:05 PM on June 8


Roll a D6 every half hour.

- If it's a 1 say "LAB GAIN" to yourself
- if it's 2-4 say "CON HOLD"
- if it's 5-6 say "CON GAIN"
- if it's cocked or falls on the floor say "LIB GAIN"

Congratulations. You'll have accurately recreated tonight's election returns without having to watch them.
posted by garius at 1:20 PM on June 8 [13 favorites]


On the lighter side: Here are the UK’s most infuriating constituency names. "I have a lot of feelings about Britain’s constituency names: that is to say, a lot of them are just wrong."

nobody giggles at one of them being named Maidenhead?
posted by indubitable at 1:24 PM on June 8


No, because: Penistone.
posted by Catseye at 1:30 PM on June 8 [7 favorites]




If anyone is looking for international streaming, tvcatchup.com should have most BBC channels available.
posted by figurant at 1:38 PM on June 8


Uggggggggggh I just found out that BBC America is just showing Star Trek and I can't stream BBC here due to region restrictions. Where can I as an American watch election returns?

Twitter, somewhat surreally
posted by Automocar at 1:55 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


HELLO DIMBLEBY!
posted by ZipRibbons at 1:57 PM on June 8


I'm on the Isle of Wight this evening. Overheard in the pub: "the bookies are giving the best odds on the Greens taking the Island, and they've got the best information so that must be right".

Overheard earlier today in the library (not on the IoW) from a young CAB volunteer: "I can't remember - does Corbyn want a hard Brexit and May a soft Brexit, or is it the other way round? ... I think what I'll do is wait until I get into the polling booth and then make up my mind."
posted by paduasoy at 1:58 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


Been door knocking for Vince Cable. Here we go...
posted by MattWPBS at 1:59 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


Woah.
posted by Catseye at 2:00 PM on June 8


The BBC exit poll is calling a hung parliament.
posted by dng at 2:01 PM on June 8 [4 favorites]


Oh shit
posted by EndsOfInvention at 2:01 PM on June 8


Eat it Tories!

Yours, a very sleepy (but now also very happy) Australian
posted by Panthalassa at 2:01 PM on June 8 [2 favorites]


Exit poll hung parliament!
posted by MattWPBS at 2:01 PM on June 8 [2 favorites]


Boris as PM by the year's end...
posted by Wordshore at 2:02 PM on June 8


Kinell. Now I'm going to have to stay up.
posted by biffa at 2:03 PM on June 8 [4 favorites]


FUCK YEAH! Still 314 vs 266 according to the poll, Con largest party but short a majority and down 17 from the present. LD up to 16.
posted by TheophileEscargot at 2:03 PM on June 8


Exit polls have been wrong before. Not usually and not recently, but we remember 1992...
posted by Catseye at 2:03 PM on June 8 [2 favorites]


Aaaaaaaaaaaagh.
posted by pharm at 2:03 PM on June 8


Please be accurate!


Conservatives: 314

Labour: 266

SNP: 34

Lib Dems: 14

Plaid Cymru: 3

Greens: 1

Ukip: 0

Others: 138
posted by MattWPBS at 2:03 PM on June 8 [5 favorites]


Oh shit. Polls says
Tories 314
Lab 266
Snp 34
LD 14

Lab+SNP+LD=314 😬
posted by EndsOfInvention at 2:04 PM on June 8 [3 favorites]


COALITION OF CHAOS PLEASE.
posted by MattWPBS at 2:04 PM on June 8 [18 favorites]


Looks like we'll be needing another election thread in six weeks time
posted by dng at 2:04 PM on June 8 [3 favorites]


bloody hell - SNP predicted to have the biggest losses, but yes, hung parliament
posted by Devonian at 2:04 PM on June 8


Beware of the Shy Tory effect though. Exit polls are good for turnout bias, but if people are still reluctant to admit voting Tory they could still be understating them.
posted by TheophileEscargot at 2:05 PM on June 8 [6 favorites]


Lab+SNP+LD=314
Plaid Cymru Kingmakers!!!
Pint of Dark and a Clark's Pie for the national dish.
posted by fullerine at 2:06 PM on June 8 [4 favorites]


Oh god the hope is killing me. Well done 6pm me for stocking up snacks though, as if she knew she'd be staying up all night.
posted by theseldomseenkid at 2:07 PM on June 8 [8 favorites]


Also those numbers could end up giving us another Conservative/Liberal Democrats coalition.

If we thought their tuition fees u-turn was spectacular, wait until they suddenly back hard-brexit.
posted by dng at 2:07 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]




So uhh, May has to resign if it's hung right? This is a colossal own goal.
posted by T.D. Strange at 2:08 PM on June 8 [11 favorites]


Can’t see the LDs going into Coalition this time.
posted by pharm at 2:09 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


Oh god the hope is killing me.

Yes, me too. However I've opened the whisky and it has promised to help me through the night.
posted by antiwiggle at 2:09 PM on June 8 [2 favorites]


If May's unexpected pet election results in a reduced majority, is there any chance she would be removed as leader and PM?
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 2:10 PM on June 8 [2 favorites]


Can we just appreciate the real result here:
UKIP - 0
posted by EndsOfInvention at 2:11 PM on June 8 [37 favorites]


I'm on the gin. Hooray for being a student with no work tomorrow! Boo for my liver!
posted by theseldomseenkid at 2:11 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


Do they have anyone worse than May? That's the only way she gets replaced.
posted by Artw at 2:11 PM on June 8 [2 favorites]


Rees-Mogg for PM!
posted by doop at 2:12 PM on June 8 [2 favorites]


There's no shortage of people worse than May on essentially any measure you care to choose.
posted by vbfg at 2:13 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


Do they have anyone worse than May?

Prime Minister Michael Gove at your service!
posted by PenDevil at 2:13 PM on June 8 [5 favorites]


So uhh, May has to resign if it's hung right? This is a colossal own goal.

...and it righteously fucks up Brexit, yes?
posted by leotrotsky at 2:14 PM on June 8


Glad we stopped on the way home and bought bevvies!
posted by skybluepink at 2:14 PM on June 8


Oh man, I may have peaked too early with the booze.
posted by Bloxworth Snout at 2:15 PM on June 8 [4 favorites]


Don't understand UK Parliament.

Is it possible that Labour could form a coalition with Lib Dems, Greens, and SNP?

Or do Conservatives get the first shot?
posted by leotrotsky at 2:15 PM on June 8


I hear George Osbourne's looking for a job.
posted by Catseye at 2:15 PM on June 8


I'm not ashamed to admit I cried at that exit poll. Even if it all goes to shit later, we fought back.

"I mean, we can pretend Corbyn's in with a shot if it'll make you feel good. I'll be the first one to get the drinks in at the bar if I'm wrong."

My first comment in the first Mefi Election thread. Fuckin hell.

(Remember to drink water, Mefite boozers).
posted by threetwentytwo at 2:17 PM on June 8 [9 favorites]


Institute for Government primer on What if there's a hung parliament?
posted by Catseye at 2:17 PM on June 8 [2 favorites]


trotsky: I believe the largest party is given the opportunity to form a coalition first, then it's whoever can command a majority.
posted by Erberus at 2:17 PM on June 8


Is it possible that Labour could form a coalition with Lib Dems, Greens, and SNP?

Or do Conservatives get the first shot?


If one party has a majority, the Queen will ask that party's leader to be Prime Minister. If not, she will take advice and try to work out who is most likely to receive the support of a majority of Parliament, and continue until she gets that majority.
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 2:17 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


I mean it's 2017. We're somehow surprised that the current prediction is the stupidest possible outcome?
posted by zachlipton at 2:18 PM on June 8 [5 favorites]


leotrotsky: The Queen will invite the largest party to form a government. If they are unable to do so, then it’s up to the others to put something together.
posted by pharm at 2:18 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


I mean, I am anticipating a shy Tory vote, as some respondents will be rightfully ashamed of themselves, but still, I was expecting to go to bed feeling wretched about right now...
posted by skybluepink at 2:20 PM on June 8 [2 favorites]




If the Conservatives are the largest party, their leader is very likely to be Prime Minister even if they don't have an absolute majority.
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 2:21 PM on June 8


May's gone. There is no way she can gamble a majority, campaign as badly as she has, and survive unless she got a landslide. She is gone.
posted by MattWPBS at 2:21 PM on June 8 [13 favorites]


Coalition talks pretty much go on in parallel - the biggest party gets to give up first if the numbers aren't working for them. It's spun as 'first chance to make a government' but the minority parties decide.
posted by Devonian at 2:21 PM on June 8


> Or do Conservatives get the first shot?

It comes down to "confidence and supply". That basically means the ability to survive a vote of no confidence and an ability to pass a budget.

The ability to do this will become obvious. It took a while in 2010. I think it will be immediate this time around.

If there are parties that can work together and do a deal to provide the above then that's the government. I confidently predict nobody is going in to coalition with the Tories this time.
posted by vbfg at 2:23 PM on June 8 [4 favorites]


My rule of thumb is that people are reluctant to amend their predictions, so when they earlier predicted a Tory landslide and now predict a hung Parliament it means there's actually going to be a Labour victory. I just want whatever result blocks Brexit.
posted by Joe in Australia at 2:23 PM on June 8 [3 favorites]


Con + DUP + UUP is 324
Lab + SNP + LD + Plaid + Grn is 318.

Technically you want 1+(650/2) = 326 for an overall majority, but Sinn Fein don't take their seats, so the magic number is 323. (Even if SF wanted to take their seats because of Brexit or something, they'd still need to hold a party conference to legitimize it).
posted by doop at 2:23 PM on June 8 [6 favorites]


I mean it's 2017. We're somehow surprised that the current prediction is the stupidest possible outcome?

I'm sorry; that was glib and wrong. It's not nearly as stupid as handing Theresa May a majority.
posted by zachlipton at 2:25 PM on June 8 [2 favorites]


George Osborne saying he feels that the result could be worse than the exit poll. I don't care if it's just the start of the night, right now I am fucking happy as Larry!
posted by MattWPBS at 2:25 PM on June 8 [3 favorites]


Who knows, maybe the exit polls are wrong, and the conservatives win comfortably; at least I can take pleasure in this moment, when a whole lot of Tory grandees saw the exit polls and shat themselves.
posted by Bloxworth Snout at 2:25 PM on June 8 [14 favorites]


I... goddammnit, I had completely resigned myself to a solid Tory majority and was about to go to bed. Now this glimmer of hope has completely fucked up my sangfroid.

Rees-Mogg for PM!
*Sideshow_Bob_Shudder.gif*
posted by metaBugs at 2:25 PM on June 8 [5 favorites]


Labour tried the 'possession is nine tenths of the law' approach to staying in Downing St in 2010, but as Devonian says it came down to a call made by the smaller party (Lib Dems) to unblock it.

Edit: Devonian not Wordshore :)
posted by toamouse at 2:26 PM on June 8


Also: fuck you, Rupert Murdoch. I hope you and Paul Dacre hilariously get yourself glued together and stumble into a volcano.
posted by Bloxworth Snout at 2:29 PM on June 8 [17 favorites]


Trump: I'm just committing the finest, most luxurious unforced errors to destroy my executive authority, bigly.
May: Hold my Pimm's.
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 2:29 PM on June 8 [57 favorites]


is zero seats for UKIP the expected outcome or just a nice bonus on top of the larger trend?
posted by murphy slaw at 2:31 PM on June 8 [3 favorites]


Oh well, so much for my resignedly going to bed plan.
posted by Aravis76 at 2:31 PM on June 8 [10 favorites]


May: Hold my Pimm's.
Not even a Guinness?
posted by oneswellfoop at 2:31 PM on June 8


Broadly expected for UKIP. It's been known for a while that their support was leaving them in droves for other parties. Mostly the Conservatives, or so it was thought, because flavour of Brexit. Remains to be seen where they actually go. Sounds likeliest to me though
posted by vbfg at 2:33 PM on June 8 [3 favorites]


Wasn't UKIP's only MP a Tory turncoat?
posted by skybluepink at 2:34 PM on June 8 [2 favorites]


Woildnt be surprised if a commitment to suicide-by-Brexit is the only thing that survives.
posted by Artw at 2:34 PM on June 8 [5 favorites]


I like Michael Fallon sitting there on the BBC trying desperately to assert they needed to call this election because somehow the Liberal Democrats would have held up their brexit plans somehow, and that it wasn't just a massively cynical act of hubris.
posted by dng at 2:35 PM on June 8 [2 favorites]


May's gone. There is no way she can gamble a majority, campaign as badly as she has, and survive unless she got a landslide. She is gone.

I think you're probably right. And I have to say that, whatever your substantive political views on anything, that is a brilliant outcome here. She has actually managed to make David Cameron, the man who will be remembered for fucking a pig's face and giving us Brexit by accident, look like an acceptable leader. I just wish that there were still enough genuinely competent politicians left in British politics to give me significant hope that whoever is left to make the best of the Brexit fuck up will do a decent job.

But yeah, getting rid of May looks very, very likely, and that, at least, will be something to be grateful for.
posted by howfar at 2:36 PM on June 8 [26 favorites]


(U.S. Roku TV users, I am watching BBC News using the Twitter for Roku app.)
posted by lalex at 2:36 PM on June 8 [2 favorites]


Liberal Democrats would have held up their brexit plans somehow

because Labour is going to be so much easier to work with?
posted by murphy slaw at 2:36 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


So before I go to bed I have to find an answer to the question: "How could this possibly get even stupider?" So I know what to expect when I wake up tomorrow morning.
posted by Grangousier at 2:37 PM on June 8 [2 favorites]


Can you imagine a Con-Lib coalition negotiating Brexit?

Try as I might... computer says no.
posted by Devonian at 2:37 PM on June 8 [5 favorites]


If you're in the US, you can watch the BBC broadcast on Twitter.
posted by Jeanne at 2:39 PM on June 8


"How could this possibly get even stupider?"

Con-Lab pro-Brexit coalition government
posted by indubitable at 2:39 PM on June 8 [11 favorites]


Oh Jesus. I've got so much work to do tomorrow. I can't afford a nailbiting election night.
posted by howfar at 2:39 PM on June 8 [2 favorites]


because Labour is going to be so much easier to work with?

They didn't have to work with Labour or the Liberal Democrats because they already had a majority.
posted by dng at 2:40 PM on June 8


Honestly, as a Lib Dem, if the price for stopping a stupidly hard Brexit was another coalition with the Tories and total electoral wipe out, I'd take the sacrifice.
posted by MattWPBS at 2:40 PM on June 8 [4 favorites]


Luckily I'm watching with the only person i have a meeting with tomorrow, that is now cancelled.

Fallon is such a wanker. I'd be happy if McConnell finishes the night by decking and teabagging him.
posted by biffa at 2:44 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


MattWPBS: I don't know that I would. Although they managed to cushion the blow somewhat 2010-2015 they also managed to save the Tories from themselves. Whatever happens next, the Tories have to own it with no willing scapegoats (God knows they're masters of finding unwilling ones).
posted by Grangousier at 2:44 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


I'm getting a pizza now, I hope my other half has realised there's no chance I'm going to bed at any point soon.
posted by MattWPBS at 2:45 PM on June 8


I just can’t see the Tories accepting the terms that the LDs would impose on a coalition - i.e. a second Brexit vote after negotiations.
posted by pharm at 2:46 PM on June 8


(If the Tories don't win, I will visit the UK as I have long yearned to do and spend my sweet tourist dollars there within the next fiscal year, even if I have to put it all on my credit card.)
posted by Frowner at 2:47 PM on June 8 [24 favorites]


I don't think the Lib Dems will be keen for a coalition with anyone. During the period after the 2010 election, the economy was is such bad shape that the Lib Dems were terrified that they'd be blamed for plunging the country into a depression if they didn't do a deal quickly. With hindsight it was fucking idiotic, but I understand what everyone was thinking at the time. I think it's pretty unlikely that we're going to see any coalitions. Confidence and supply, I think, may be what will happen if there is no overall majority, but I'd guess that another election won't be too far behind.

So much for the so called fucking "Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011". Never has a single Act of Parliament been more pointless, idiotic and meaningless.
posted by howfar at 2:47 PM on June 8 [11 favorites]


The most frustrating thing is knowing that, even after the colossal own-goal of the referendum and the even worse decision to call a general election, the press will still treat the Tories as the party of sensible, pragmatic grown-ups.
posted by Bloxworth Snout at 2:49 PM on June 8 [13 favorites]


Never has a single Act of Parliament been more pointless, idiotic and meaningless.

The point was to give the Tories an excuse not to hold an election, unless they really, really wanted to
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 2:50 PM on June 8 [2 favorites]


Exit poll people saying that 76 seats are too close to call according to their margin of error.
posted by pharm at 2:50 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


(If the Tories don't win, I will visit the UK as I have long yearned to do and spend my sweet tourist dollars there within the next fiscal year, even if I have to put it all on my credit card.)

If you do, I will organise a Bristol MeFi meetup to coincide with your visit, where, should you wish, you will be richly toasted for your profligate (but let's face it, reduced by what will almost certainly be an even more favourable exchange rate) spending.
posted by howfar at 2:50 PM on June 8 [8 favorites]


The most frustrating thing is knowing that, even after the colossal own-goal of the referendum and the even worse decision to call a general election, the press will still treat the Tories as the party of sensible, pragmatic grown-ups.

@matthewstoller: Important to note that Corbyn didn't win. Tories still won a plurality even with the "your children should be eaten by monsters" platform.
posted by zombieflanders at 2:52 PM on June 8 [5 favorites]


Sadly, a thread elsewhere has pointed out that the exit poll in 2015 had the Tories getting 316, and was off by 15. So it's probably still bad news for Theresa May if it's the same pattern as last time, but I'm not going to get too excited about the poll now.

It'd still be better than the crushing Tory victory that it looked like when called, though.
posted by tavella at 2:53 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


"They said parliament was hung."
"And they was right!"
posted by kirkaracha at 2:54 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


> The doubt for me is how long they hold off on the leadership challenge. My inner bastard would do it within six months.

I may have misjudged them. The Telegraph story on the exit poll has a side bar explaining how Tory leadership elections work.
posted by vbfg at 2:54 PM on June 8 [3 favorites]


I may have misjudged them. The Telegraph story on the exit poll has a side bar explaining how Tory leadership elections work.

my edition is smudged, what happens after the fattest larva has eaten all the others in its clutch
posted by murphy slaw at 2:55 PM on June 8 [18 favorites]


I think Brexit's most easily stopped by a no confidence vote from outside the government. I think that if there were a Tory government, there would easily be ⅓-½ of them who'd rebel if there were a no confidence vote which would involve stopping Brexit. Which could easily happen if the public comes to its senses and realises that there's no benefit whatsoever to it.

Frowner: please visit the UK. I've rarely seen such tangible affection for a country as you show for the UK through your knowledge of it in these threads. And it's not that pricey to get here: my last flight across the Atlantic from Boston to London cost less than the price of the off-peak train ticket from Gatwick to Bath. (£65 vs. £66). I'll come to the Bristol meetup that howfar organises.
posted by ambrosen at 2:55 PM on June 8 [5 favorites]


DUP flack on the BBC giving us a preview of them being ready to fuck foreigners however they can to help the Tories.
posted by Talez at 2:57 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


And here I had just resigned myself to having no hope at all. And now I am tormented with a faint flutter of it.
posted by skybluepink at 2:57 PM on June 8 [2 favorites]


During the period after the 2010 election, the economy was is such bad shape that the Lib Dems were terrified that they'd be blamed for plunging the country into a depression if they didn't do a deal quickly. With hindsight it was fucking idiotic, but I understand what everyone was thinking at the time.

That, and we figured we'd stop the worst excesses of the Tories. Which with the hindsight of the last two years, was very fucking accurate.
posted by MattWPBS at 2:58 PM on June 8 [7 favorites]


My main hope is that, if the Lib Dems end up with the balance of power, they won't squander it for a handful of shiny beads this time, but will hold fast and demand at least a second Brexit referendum on the deal and a preferentially, if not proportionally, elected Commons.
posted by acb at 2:58 PM on June 8 [6 favorites]


I can see a depressing potential outcome where the Tories scrape a marginal victory, May gets tossed for Boris or someone even worse, and Corbyn takes the relatively small margin as confirmation of the glories of his leadership and continues bumbling on while while trying to get rid of Labour MPs that don't support him.
posted by tavella at 2:59 PM on June 8 [2 favorites]



I think Brexit's most easily stopped by a no confidence vote from outside the government. I think that if there were a Tory government, there would easily be ⅓-½ of them who'd rebel if there were a no confidence vote which would involve stopping Brexit. Which could easily happen if the public comes to its senses and realises that there's no benefit whatsoever to it.


This is fantasy. Labour is too scared of white-van-man and the rabid press to be against brexit. Libdems are the only party who stood entirely against it - and they have shown what use they were....... It ain't being reversed.
posted by lalochezia at 2:59 PM on June 8 [2 favorites]


If the Lib Dems are part of a coalition government and use that fact to force a second referendum avoiding Brexit... surely that would be good news for every politician who already privately thinks Brexit is insanity?
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 3:00 PM on June 8 [2 favorites]


Can we not retread the Coalition argument *again*?
posted by pharm at 3:02 PM on June 8 [3 favorites]


In solidarity I have also totally busted my "going to bed at a vaguely reasonable hour" and "limiting alcohol" resolutions (never so terribly resolute at the best of times, but never mind; I'm here with you, bleary eyed, and overly alcoholated). So much <3 <3 <3.
posted by taz at 3:02 PM on June 8 [3 favorites]


Beware of the Shy Tory effect though.

This. Everywhere in North London, I have seen forests of Labour signs in windows and yards, a decent number of Lib Dems, and a few Green Party signs, but not one Conservative sign. Not one Londoner willing to nail their Tory colours to the mast. Presumably hanging up a poster of Theresa May and “STRONG AND STABLE” or “CRUSH THE SABOTEURS” or whatever the slogan is would be the social equivalent of putting up a crudely drawn swastika subtitled with “I LIKE TO TOUCH KIDS”. And yet, people still vote Tory; they're second or third in most electorates. Tory voters, it seems, are the dark matter of politics in places where one has to hide one's viciousness.
posted by acb at 3:03 PM on June 8 [20 favorites]


Exit polls unreliable. Conservatives beat exit polls in one riding.
posted by Yowser at 3:04 PM on June 8


lalochezia, as a British resident, you could give me the space to have fantasies here if they're plausible. There can be barely any politicians of any brains who think Brexit is a good idea, and I know that most people I speak to have no grounding behind their preference for Brexit, whether they were Brexit all along ("Because it'll tell Cameron and Osborne where to go") or whether they were remain, but "I wish they'd just get on with it now".

So it's not as if it's overturning long-held beliefs for 80% of the country. It's unlikely, but I'd like to keep sketching out exit scenarios. If a hard Brexit goes ahead, my only sensible course of action will be to emigrate, and my heart will break.
posted by ambrosen at 3:07 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


If this turns out to be true, then Shepherd and I can in good conscience visit family and friends in the UK as we've boycotted my home country for the duration of its own horrors.
posted by Kitteh at 3:08 PM on June 8


Did they move Sunderland to the other side of some kind of wormhole in the fabric of space-time? Because it sure sounds like it on the BBC feed.
posted by zachlipton at 3:08 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


Sunderland and Newcastle not doing as exit polls suggested, looking better for the Conservatives.

Maybe next time let's try doing an election without any polls at all?
posted by Catseye at 3:09 PM on June 8


Nah. Both are *very* safe Labour seats, so unlikely to fully reflect wider shifts in the vote. Watch this space basically.
posted by pharm at 3:10 PM on June 8 [2 favorites]


I can see a depressing potential outcome where the Tories scrape a marginal victory, May gets tossed for Boris or someone even worse, and Corbyn takes the relatively small margin as confirmation of the glories of his leadership and continues bumbling on while while trying to get rid of Labour MPs that don't support him.

Corbyn seems to have shaped up well in the last month or so. So much so that I'm imagining a Rocky-style montage sequence of him doing so. He seems to be a better leader and negotiator than May, for one, and the current crop of Tories does seem a bit weak as well. (Boris as Foreign Minister?! You're having a laugh...)

Having said that, the Labour front bench is a bit weak, largely due to the more experienced MPs being of a Blairite/Brownite persuasion and having either jumped or been pushed. As Corbyn proves himself and some of the doubts disappear, perhaps more will return.
posted by acb at 3:11 PM on June 8 [2 favorites]


Maybe next time let's try doing an election without any polls at all?

I feel like it just gave us false hope...
posted by badmoonrising at 3:12 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]




That... sounds like it could be utterly meaningless depending on the final results
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 3:14 PM on June 8


Are the Lib Dems the party of mad hatters?
posted by Yowser at 3:14 PM on June 8


If we stop now, we could have a country run entirely by Labour women for 4 years. Sounds good to me.
posted by hfnuala at 3:14 PM on June 8 [6 favorites]


I'm really not sure how much we can read into results from Sunderland and Newcastle yet - in the north-east in general, there'll be a shift towards the conservatives (former UKIP voters switching), but the rest of the country, not so much.

I was planning to go to bed after the exit poll and get up early - however, the exit poll was so promising. Let's hope it's right.
posted by BigCalm at 3:15 PM on June 8


Don't they all always say "no deals" anyway?
posted by EndsOfInvention at 3:15 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


Oh well back to a state of resigned horror.
posted by Artw at 3:15 PM on June 8 [3 favorites]


I wonder if prospective Labour coalition partners would nudge them in the direction of bringing some of the MPs with government experience from before 2010 back to the front bench. It would be an interesting set of coalition talks.
posted by ambrosen at 3:15 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


Still think we're getting a Tory majority. I have now ordered pizza though.

WAIT A MINUTE. WHAT THE FUCK IS NEIL HAMMOND DOING ON MY TV.
posted by garius at 3:16 PM on June 8 [9 favorites]


I wonder if prospective Labour coalition partners would nudge them in the direction of bringing some of the MPs with government experience from before 2010 back to the front bench.

Just not Blunkett. He's about as authoritarian as May.
posted by acb at 3:16 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


Tories still disagree with the exit poll. Their internal polling must have been giving them very different results.
posted by pharm at 3:17 PM on June 8


God, even in its present degraded state, why on earth is the Beeb treating Neil Hamilton as anything even vaguely like a respectable person?
posted by skybluepink at 3:18 PM on June 8 [4 favorites]


WHAT THE FUCK IS NEIL HAMMOND DOING ON MY TV.

My thoughts exactly.
posted by Bloxworth Snout at 3:18 PM on June 8 [2 favorites]


WHAT THE FUCK IS NEIL HAMMOND DOING ON MY TV.

Hopefully saying goodbye to his last chance at public life.

(Oh, who am I kidding...?)
posted by Grangousier at 3:20 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


Is weird reading this thread and twitter while watching BBC Scotland's coverage. Timings and tone is quite different. Also, BBC central has stolen our psephologist.
posted by hfnuala at 3:21 PM on June 8


BBC desperately trying to get Jack Straw to pick on Corbyn when he's happily eating crow. Stay classy BBC.
posted by garius at 3:24 PM on June 8


Exit poll doesn't include postal votes, but apparently swing is the same regardless of postal vote proportion in the constituencies sampled.
posted by pharm at 3:25 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


After hearing their exit poll methodology, I think you're all safe to ignore them COMPLETELY. I'm dying here. What a joke.
posted by Yowser at 3:25 PM on June 8


In the worst case, hopefully this means that, even if the Tories scrape in by their fingernails, their claim to having a sweeping majority to remake the country as they see fit will be shot to pieces, and the Lords will have no qualms about reminding them of this.
posted by acb at 3:27 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


Has anyone let the BBC know that the EU is kicking the U.K. out, no matter what the U.K. *wants*?
posted by Yowser at 3:29 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


Yowser: historically exit polls have been more accurate than the pre-election polls. 1992 was their worst one I think.
posted by pharm at 3:29 PM on June 8 [4 favorites]


Has anyone let the BBC know that the EU is kicking the U.K. out, no matter what the U.K. *wants*?

If Number 10 called Brussels tomorrow to cancel Article 50, the EU would be doing cartwheels. They don't want the UK to leave.
posted by Automocar at 3:31 PM on June 8 [12 favorites]


Has anyone let the BBC know that the EU is kicking the U.K. out, no matter what the U.K. *wants*?

Well, given that the true enormity of what Brexit will actually entail is about to be exposed, I'm sure they'll let us stay if we promise to join Schengen, adopt the Euro, replace our electrical plugs with those round-pinned ones, switch to driving on the right and make all signage bilingual in English and French. Which will be a small price to pay, given the alternative.
posted by acb at 3:32 PM on June 8 [8 favorites]


If Number 10 called Brussels tomorrow to cancel Article 50, the EU would be doing cartwheels. They don't want the UK to leave.

We might have to clap Rupert Murdoch and Paul Dacre in the Bloody Tower for that to happen, because otherwise the festering venom of frogs-and-krauts two-world-wars-and-one-world-cup hatred will just go underground and continue spreading.
posted by acb at 3:34 PM on June 8 [3 favorites]


Yowser: legally they may not have the option if A50 is withdrawn. Which I find desperately unlikely as a possibility, despite desperately wanting it. But the EU may not be able to simply kick us out like that. In fact revoking membership of a member rather than them withdrawing is really very difficult indeed.
posted by edd at 3:34 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


To be honest I think we'd just have to pinky swear not to hold a Brexit referendum again and they'd let bygones be bygones.
posted by garius at 3:34 PM on June 8


Guardian has an article on the general accuracy of the exit polls

Turnout is high, which should favour labour.
posted by BigCalm at 3:35 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


We also wouldn't get back the special treatment that Thatcher handbagged out of Delors. But that's the price we pay for our hubris.
posted by acb at 3:36 PM on June 8


Unsurprisingly, it takes the actual Europeans in the thread (British residents & I think citizens, all) to actually have a reasoned take on the relationship between the UK and the EU. People outside the EU: this isn't sportsball, this is our lives.
posted by ambrosen at 3:37 PM on June 8 [24 favorites]


If you're in the US, you can watch the BBC broadcast on Twitter.

Is it me, or is Twitter have a massive day for stepping into the international news broadcasting space? I watched Comey from the UK via Twitter (Bloomberg feed) this afternoon, now they're putting the BBC Election Night coverage into the US? Have I just missed them doing this before, or is it new?

Also: What you all said. It's the hope that kills you. I had utterly refused to entertain it AT ALL until 10pm tonight. I'd even prepared the miserable, resigned frame of mind in which I was going to reach for Twitter in the morning. Now I've texted my boss to say he might get a last minute annual leave request for tomorrow, and poured the gin.
posted by penguin pie at 3:38 PM on June 8 [2 favorites]


Was going to have an early night... now think I'll see dawn
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 3:39 PM on June 8




Amber Rudd could be in trouble in Hastings. That would be wonderful.
posted by MattWPBS at 3:41 PM on June 8 [10 favorites]


"Were you still up for Rudd?"
posted by penguin pie at 3:43 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


Rumours that Amber Rudd may be in trouble in Hastings...oh please, oh please, oh please...
posted by skybluepink at 3:43 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


"Were you up for Rudd?"
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 3:43 PM on June 8


Priti Patel on BBC trying to spin this, and talking as if the campaign is still going on.
posted by MattWPBS at 3:44 PM on June 8


Why do they count so fast in the North East? Is it the cold wind coming in off the North Sea?
posted by Grangousier at 3:46 PM on June 8 [4 favorites]


So delightful that they cut Patel off without even telling her, to go to a Labour win (I have pals at DfID, she is...not well liked).
posted by theseldomseenkid at 3:47 PM on June 8 [5 favorites]


That, and we figured we'd stop the worst excesses of the Tories. Which with the hindsight of the last two years, was very fucking accurate.

I simply don't see how a confidence and supply agreement would not have been better for accomplishing this. The only question, in my mind, was whether the Tories would have swallowed it.
posted by howfar at 3:48 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


I'm sure they'll let us stay if we promise to join Schengen, adopt the Euro, replace our electrical plugs with those round-pinned ones, switch to driving on the right and make all signage bilingual in English and French.

Speaking as a non-Brit, that all sounds fine except don't you dare get rid of your glorious electrical plugs.
posted by biogeo at 3:48 PM on June 8 [2 favorites]


Gah. Swings from Labour to Conservative in the first three, enough to make me worried. I don't know whether to go to bed and see in the morning, or stay up.
posted by MattWPBS at 3:48 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


These depressing swings to the Conservatives in Labour safe seats are making me terribly jittery. I have a deadline tomorrow, but I can't deflate enough to go to bed now.
posted by Aravis76 at 3:48 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


Speaking as a non-Brit, that all sounds fine except don't you dare get rid of your glorious electrical plugs.

“La Vice Anglais”
posted by acb at 3:49 PM on June 8 [8 favorites]


I like my (probable) MP's reaction to the exit poll - Strong and Stable #oops

Kind of sums it up.
posted by BigCalm at 3:50 PM on June 8 [2 favorites]


Why do they count so fast in the North East? Is it the cold wind coming in off the North Sea?

They know who is going to win so turning it into a race makes it interesting.

Plus it gets them on TV.
posted by antiwiggle at 3:51 PM on June 8 [3 favorites]


These depressing swings to the Conservatives in Labour safe seats are making me terribly jittery.

Are they out of line with the exit poll?
posted by acb at 3:51 PM on June 8


They're not so much swings from labour considering Labour have increased their total votes in all three constituencies (and their majority in one).
posted by dng at 3:52 PM on June 8 [3 favorites]


I don't know whether to go to bed and see in the morning, or stay up.
Seriously, go to bed. You don't gain anything by watching every return roll in, and you'll be exhausted tomorrow. Go to bed now, and when you wake up you'll know what happened and be able to make sense of it. I am pretty much always on Team Go To Bed in these situations.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 3:52 PM on June 8 [8 favorites]


Hard to really tell anything from the first three results... gonna have to wait for a proper marginal. And even then I think results could be all over the shop.
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 3:52 PM on June 8


Daily Mail Editor Paul Dacre ceased tugging and looked down at his flaccid dongle. What had happened? Where had it all gone wrong? Should it have been fourteen pages of hate? Should it have been twelve?

He tugged uselessly at his once-noble pole. It was no good. All he could think of was polls of the Exit variety. It must be wrong. It had to be wrong, for God sake. They could not be reliant on the Irish, surely, even if they were of the right sort? At least so far the north-east wasn't entirely in line with the forecast. If the leave vote stayed strong then a majority might still be on the cards.

He hoped so anyway, he thought, looking down. Otherwise, his own little conservative member might never be strong and stable again.
posted by garius at 3:53 PM on June 8 [21 favorites]


Okay, interesting. First three are BETTER for Labour than YouGov's constituency model.
posted by MattWPBS at 3:54 PM on June 8


The Guardian has just put up a picture of Local Candidate Mr Fishfinger. I'm so annoyed about Brexit and May and the collapse of decency and everything, but there are truly great things about this country.
posted by Aravis76 at 3:54 PM on June 8 [5 favorites]


Seriously, go to bed. You don't gain anything by writing Paul Dacre slash fanfic, and you'll be spent tomorrow.

Fixed that for you, garius & ArbitraryAndCapricious.
posted by ambrosen at 3:56 PM on June 8 [3 favorites]


Newcastle upon Tyne East swung 7% to Labour
posted by PenDevil at 3:57 PM on June 8


Newcastle upon Tyne East swung 7% to Labour

The Guardian has it as 2.1%, with the other two being swings to the Tories (3.5% and 2.3%)
posted by acb at 3:59 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


I ship Osborne / Dacre.
posted by garius at 3:59 PM on June 8


Re possible coalitions, a friend who's a very active Lib Dem party member says that since 2010 the LDs have changed their rules so that coalition proposals have to be voted on and accepted/rejected by the party members. So really, no one knows anything at this point because this seems to be the sole area of #GE2017 left unpolled.
posted by Cheerwell Maker at 3:59 PM on June 8 [2 favorites]


oh can we just fastforward to Amber Rudd's seat so I can go to bed.
posted by Catseye at 3:59 PM on June 8 [6 favorites]


I wouldn't sweat the small Tory swings in Sunderland too much - it's a strong Leave area with a previously strong UKIP vote. Some of that has passed over to the Tories, but possibly not in as large a proportion as had been expected.
posted by anagrama at 4:00 PM on June 8


11% swing to Lab in Swindon N... that's better
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 4:00 PM on June 8 [2 favorites]


That Swindon result...


...nobody knows what the fuck is going on, do they?
posted by garius at 4:01 PM on June 8 [2 favorites]


I'm going to offer some general words of comfort. Anything short of a significant gain in seats for the Tories is good here. The problems we are facing, right now, are pretty close to existential, and May declared an election with the intent of cementing her utterly incompetent leadership in place for five years. If she doesn't do that, then space opens up for a less blinkered, stupid and suicidal approach to the nightmare we're facing.

I'll be disappointed, but not surprised, if the Tories retain control. But if they don't get the big mandate for idiocy that they were looking for, I'll be seriously fucking relieved.

This is the world we live in now. Get used to moderating your expectations. It's going to be a long tough fight, but these fuckers aren't impregnable, and we will take them down and make this country and this world just. Maybe I'll be an old man by the time it happens, and every day of misery these bastards impose on the people I work for is a day too fucking long, but I take heart in any glimmer of hope in this bleak landscape, because it reminds me that we will, in the end, win.

Courage mes braves.
posted by howfar at 4:01 PM on June 8 [41 favorites]


The Guardian has just put up a picture of Local Candidate Mr Fishfinger. I'm so annoyed about Brexit and May and the collapse of decency and everything, but there are truly great things about this country.

Australia seems to have inherited this very tradition. Every election has a slew of joke candidates, usually in the Prime Minister's electorate. There was a perennial candidate who went by the name Cecil Murgatroyd for a few decades; in one of his last elections, at the time of the referendum on whether to become a republic, he ran under the banner of the Imperial British Conservative Party, attired in pith helmet and colonial dress uniform; his platform was to have a junior member of the British Royal Family (Princess Anne, I believe) become the monarch of Australia, in an arrangement modelled on the Brazilian “cadet monarchy” of the 19th century.
posted by acb at 4:02 PM on June 8 [3 favorites]


Local Candidate Mr Fishfinger

The gymnasium falls silent. Mr Fishfinger sips his coffee, hands tensed, eyes narrowed, cufflinks askew. Somewhere, an infant cries and is swiftly hushed.
posted by saturday_morning at 4:02 PM on June 8 [7 favorites]


11% swing to Lab in Swindon N... that's better

Er, sorry - think that was a gain not a swing. Still good news.
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 4:05 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


Right. Going to bed. See you all in the morning...
posted by pharm at 4:06 PM on June 8


Amber Rudd could be in trouble in Hastings. That would be wonderful.

That and Sophie Walker beating the outspokenly misogynistic Tory incumbent in Shipley, on the strength of progressive-alliance tactical votes.
posted by acb at 4:07 PM on June 8 [3 favorites]


The Guardian has it as 2.1%

That's Newcastle Central. The Guardian is currently reporting an 18%(!?) Lab swing in Newcastle East.
posted by anagrama at 4:07 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


If UKIP come out of this with zero seats, as predicted, I do hope they can stop being invited onto every single BBC political programme. If they want minority MPs, get some of the Greens!
posted by Cheerwell Maker at 4:08 PM on June 8 [24 favorites]


I am really loving the coverage on the BBC. So far they've come up with this crazy paving stone graphic "leading" to Downing Street, and David Dimbleby complained about (and swatted at) a fly in the studio.
posted by tractorfeed at 4:08 PM on June 8 [2 favorites]


oh, I think the constituency of Question Time will still be UKIP (HOLD).
posted by Catseye at 4:09 PM on June 8 [5 favorites]


oh can we just fastforward to Amber Rudd's seat so I can go to bed.

Guardian says we'll find out about Hastings and Rye in about 3 hours.
posted by Artw at 4:09 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


If UKIP come out of this with zero seats, as predicted, I do hope they can stop being invited onto every single BBC political programme. If they want minority MPs, get some of the Greens!

The Greens are too nice; it doesn't make good TV. Also, they're too left-wing, and the BBC would have to balance it out with a lot of right-wing red meat to avoid the Tories making knife-sharpening noises at them, egged on by Murdoch.

Maybe they could recruit Morrissey as a spokesperson and fix this?
posted by acb at 4:10 PM on June 8 [5 favorites]


With a lot of these 'swings' I really, really want to see them compared to 2010. Because so far it's very clear that it's where the UKIP vote is going that matters.

In each instance so far, I want to know whether it's just reverting to the party it was with before, or if there's a substantial shift to the Tories. That'd be telling.
posted by garius at 4:11 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


I am really loving the coverage on the BBC. So far they've come up with this crazy paving stone graphic "leading" to Downing Street, and David Dimbleby complained about (and swatted at) a fly in the studio.

The increased yearly cost of election night CGI is surely the reason there's only 12 episodes of Doctor Who each series now rather than 13.
posted by dng at 4:11 PM on June 8 [16 favorites]


Man, when Murdoch shuffles off this mortal coil U.K. politics just isn't going to know what to do with itself, is it? That evil fuck has been there my entire life making everything worse.
posted by Artw at 4:12 PM on June 8 [13 favorites]


If a Tory-whisperer at the Spectator is right, the knives will be out for May even if she gets a majority of 12. “The men in grey suits” are said to be livid.
posted by acb at 4:12 PM on June 8 [3 favorites]


I think the knives have been out for May since a few weeks before the election. She'll be saved if she gets a majority of say 80+, but otherwise...
posted by Catseye at 4:14 PM on June 8


Ken Clarke looks far more exhausted and annoyed than he usually does. What a year his party has put him through.
posted by Aravis76 at 4:14 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


North east = Rust belt?
posted by biffa at 4:15 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


Look out everyone! Ken Clarke's done his top button up. That means he's pissed off.
posted by garius at 4:17 PM on June 8 [3 favorites]


Paul Waugh‏ from the Huff Post is saying there's a Lab gain predicted at Kensington! Kensington!!!!
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 4:17 PM on June 8 [3 favorites]


North east = Rust belt?

Ehhhhh.... sure. Kind of.
posted by Automocar at 4:18 PM on June 8 [2 favorites]


"God I hate referendums. I hope we never hold another referendum again." - Ken Clarke, continuing to be my favouritest Tory.
posted by garius at 4:20 PM on June 8 [10 favorites]


North east = Rust belt?

Sort of. There is a reason I've spent my entire working life away from my home area.
posted by antiwiggle at 4:21 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


Stop it with the hope everyone.
posted by Artw at 4:23 PM on June 8 [14 favorites]


Ok, cooling on the BBC coverage. Why exactly do we need to know what Farage's thoughts are at this point? Isn't he like triply irrelevant?
posted by tractorfeed at 4:23 PM on June 8 [2 favorites]


@natesilver: The problem is that Theresa May forgot to visit Wisconsinshire.
posted by Rhaomi at 4:25 PM on June 8 [36 favorites]


I have a "friend" who is pro-Brexit and pro-Tory who is now threatening to immigrate to any English-speaking country if the exit polls bear out.

I've tried unsuccessfully to point out the irony of how much powder he's spent vilifying refugees before making this declaration.
posted by Aya Hirano on the Astral Plane at 4:26 PM on June 8 [23 favorites]


I remember growing up under Thatcher and thereby hating Kenneth Clarke as a member of her cabinet.

Being able to change your mind a bit is a good quality however, even if it is often criticised in politicians.
posted by edd at 4:27 PM on June 8 [2 favorites]


John Prescott on Twitter: Heard from very good source who was there that Rupert Murdoch stormed out of The Times Election Party after seeing the Exit Poll
posted by Catseye at 4:28 PM on June 8 [20 favorites]


I have a "friend" who is pro-Brexit and pro-Tory who is now threatening to immigrate to any English-speaking country if the exit polls bear out.

Respecting the will of the people.
posted by dng at 4:28 PM on June 8 [4 favorites]


I have a "friend" who is pro-Brexit and pro-Tory who is now threatening to immigrate to any English-speaking country if the exit polls bear out.

Is your "friend" college educated, preferably masters level, with an in demand skill set?

If not they're going to be an illegal immigrant in their new land. First world English speaking countries are very picky about who they take in.
posted by Talez at 4:29 PM on June 8 [11 favorites]


> Lab gain predicted at Kensington

Seriously? The sitting Tory got 51% of the vote last time and 8k more than Labour. Wikipedia says that the pro-Brexit MP / anti-Brexit constituents could be an issue - is that the thinking?
posted by paduasoy at 4:29 PM on June 8


I have a "friend" who is pro-Brexit and pro-Tory who is now threatening to immigrate to any English-speaking country if the exit polls bear out.

Good. luck. with. that. (Given that Aus, NZ, and US are all tightening immigration policies. I guess there's Canada? South Africa? India?).
posted by Pink Frost at 4:29 PM on June 8 [2 favorites]


The YouGov model that we've all (temporarily?) stopped scoffing at had Kensington as a toss-up.
posted by Catseye at 4:30 PM on June 8


I have a "friend" who is pro-Brexit and pro-Tory who is now threatening to immigrate to any English-speaking country if the exit polls bear out.

/searches furiously for travel brochures
posted by azpenguin at 4:31 PM on June 8


Kettering won by a dangerous experiment to make the most cliched looking Tory
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 4:33 PM on June 8 [11 favorites]


Guardian liveblog says "The bookies have been sending press notices out about Boris Johnson’s odds of becoming next Tory leader. Paddy Power have him on 2/1."

No, please, no. (So sadly plausible though.)
posted by theseldomseenkid at 4:33 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


I have a "friend" who is pro-Brexit and pro-Tory who is now threatening to immigrate to any English-speaking country if the exit polls bear out.

i heard Kenya is nice this time of year
posted by indubitable at 4:33 PM on June 8 [2 favorites]


Apparently, Paddy Power have Boris Johnson on 2/1 to be the next Tory leader. If he ends up as the next Prime Minister as well, both sides of the pond will be run by hirsute-parasitic-brain-slug hosts.
posted by acb at 4:34 PM on June 8 [13 favorites]


"You're allowed back on television again!" - Dimbleby fucking with disgraced former defence minister Liam Fox (to use his full title).
posted by garius at 4:34 PM on June 8 [8 favorites]


Is your "friend" college educated, preferably masters level, with an in demand skill set?

Actually yeah, he is. After making this announcement a number of Americans commented to the effect of "yeah thanks but no thanks, we've got plenty of our own xenophobes right now."
posted by Aya Hirano on the Astral Plane at 4:35 PM on June 8 [11 favorites]


I have a "friend" who is pro-Brexit and pro-Tory who is now threatening to immigrate to any English-speaking country if the exit polls bear out.

'Scotland' if that exit poll is right, sadly
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 4:35 PM on June 8


Apparently, Paddy Power have Boris Johnson on 2/1 to be the next Tory leader. If he ends up as the next Prime Minister as well, both sides of the pond will be run by hirsute-parasitic-brain-slug hosts.

Who were born in New York City and don't seem very happy about it.
posted by Etrigan at 4:36 PM on June 8 [6 favorites]


Well, if he's quick he'll still be able to move to Ireland for the next couple of years.
posted by dng at 4:37 PM on June 8


Damnit Nuneaton. I had dared to hope.
posted by tractorfeed at 4:38 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


Just a brief reminder that all of this is happening because Cameron wanted to shore up his party against pro-Brexit internal dissent. In case you didn't think we're in the insanity timeline.

I feel like we're the dead pig now.
posted by Erberus at 4:38 PM on June 8 [22 favorites]


Re pro-Brexit and pro-Tory, I know someone similar who rails against "bloody immigrants taking British services". Except he does it from Bulgaria, where he moved because it was cheaper and he could make a living teaching English.
posted by scruss at 4:38 PM on June 8 [18 favorites]


An estimate / guestimate it looks like the collapsed UKIP vote has edged more to Lab than Con. And high turnout favouring young vote.
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 4:39 PM on June 8 [3 favorites]


Re pro-Brexit and pro-Tory, I know someone similar who rails against "bloody immigrants taking British services". Except he does it from Bulgaria, where he moved because it was cheaper and he could make a living teaching English.

there's a big enclave of 'em in Spain
posted by indubitable at 4:41 PM on June 8 [4 favorites]


Ken Clarke, continuing to be my favouritest Tory.

While I do sort of agree with you, it is a bit like picking your favourite strain of necrotising bacteria, isn't it?
posted by howfar at 4:42 PM on June 8 [12 favorites]




Count faster! I can only hit refresh for so long.
posted by Justinian at 4:48 PM on June 8 [4 favorites]


Hold on tight, Justinian, Guardian timeline suggests 1amish should bring a few interesting results.
posted by penguin pie at 4:51 PM on June 8


Where are all the UKIP candidates? Why aren't they at the counts? Did nobody tell them the election was on?
posted by Catseye at 4:51 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


When the Amish call us "the English" I didn't know they meant it so literally.
posted by zombieflanders at 4:52 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


LAB hold Darlington. That's probably the first telling result of the evening.
posted by garius at 4:54 PM on June 8 [6 favorites]




It would be better for television (but admittedly worse for democracy) if the polls closed a couple of hours earlier.

i.e. I’m tired.
posted by Bloxworth Snout at 4:56 PM on June 8 [2 favorites]


Fell asleep at 10:05. Just woke up. LOLing.
posted by Wordshore at 4:56 PM on June 8 [23 favorites]


THAT is a brilliant strategic move, Wordshore. Between exit poll and now, you've missed nowt.
posted by penguin pie at 4:59 PM on June 8 [2 favorites]


Jesus. Forgot how much Douglas Alexander looks like an uncanny valley ventriloquist's dummy.
posted by garius at 5:01 PM on June 8


Jeremy Vine's graphic re Scotland looks totally mad. I can't honestly seeing it being that bad for the SNP
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 5:01 PM on June 8


You know what BBC election special needs? Some kind of alert where you can flag up the seats you're interested in, and your TV wakes you up for them.
posted by Catseye at 5:02 PM on June 8 [9 favorites]


YouGov model has 44 SNP seats in Scotland, which seems more likely (but then who knows anything any more).
posted by Catseye at 5:02 PM on June 8


If what the Guardian's Zoe Williams has heard is correct, Philip Davies has been unseated by the Women's Equality Party.
posted by acb at 5:03 PM on June 8 [10 favorites]


oh please oh please oh please...
posted by Catseye at 5:04 PM on June 8 [2 favorites]


If what the Guardian's Zoe Williams has heard is correct, Philip Davies has been unseated by the Women's Equality Party.

That would be so fucking good.
posted by garius at 5:05 PM on June 8 [6 favorites]


Honestly I only just read up on Philip Davies today but holy shit what an arsehole he is. Amazing if WEP have unseated him.
posted by EndsOfInvention at 5:05 PM on June 8 [3 favorites]


David Dimbleby very much deserves to get to go to the bathroom, but I always find it really funny how they interrupt the election results coverage every hour to go to the news with Reeta Chakrabarti, who does election results coverage.
posted by zachlipton at 5:05 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


Please please please. One of my top two desires that is. I didn't dare dream of either let alone anything else.
posted by edd at 5:05 PM on June 8


Is Jeremy Hunt in play yet?
posted by anagrama at 5:08 PM on June 8


The always interesting Stephen Bush who's currently running the NS liveblog says the results this far follows that YouGov model pretty well, with Labour slightly ahead of the model in Remain-facing seats, and slightly under in Leave-facing ones. He's convinced we'll see a hung parliament when this is done.

At the other end, someone (at BBC, don't remember?) extrapolated the first few results to mean that the exit poll was off enough that CON could still win with 100 seats or so. That doesn't seem very likely...

I like my (probable) MP's reaction to the exit poll - Strong and Stable #oops

Big fan of Jess. Hopefully her rather horrible LD opponent loses bigly. Maybe he'll even find some time to read her book (it's good), instead of just ranting on Internet about how outrageous it is that she's written a book for women!
posted by effbot at 5:10 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


A dip a zip a bip a bop adibbadibbaBoobadoopZUP what's up ya absolute rotters socialism bout to do that thing
posted by Potomac Avenue at 5:10 PM on June 8 [5 favorites]


Wow. British politics are fascinating. I don't know exactly what's going on but I'm learning so much from this thread and Twitter.

What the heck is a bawbag?
posted by guiseroom at 5:10 PM on June 8 [8 favorites]


can someone explain the "fields of wheat" shade for those of us on the other side of the pond?
posted by murphy slaw at 5:11 PM on June 8


This Labour (sp?) stuff sounds pretty good maybe we should get some of that in the states
posted by Potomac Avenue at 5:11 PM on June 8 [3 favorites]


I know a lot of people in Shipley, often political and haven't seen one of them mention WEP. They've all been Labour on FB. I struggle to believe the Phillip Davis story.

(on preview, a thing in which baws are kept. e.g Phillip Davis)
posted by vbfg at 5:11 PM on June 8


What the heck is a bawbag?

It was a hurricane
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 5:12 PM on June 8 [2 favorites]


Fields of Wheat thing.
posted by Catseye at 5:12 PM on June 8 [3 favorites]


May was asked "What's the naughtiest thing" she's ever done. Answer: "Run through a wheat field".
posted by EndsOfInvention at 5:12 PM on June 8


What the heck is a bawbag?

A type of hurricane.
posted by MattWPBS at 5:12 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


> can someone explain the "fields of wheat" shade for those of us on the other side of the pond?

Theresa May was asked what the naughtiest thing she's ever done was. She said running through a field of wheat.
posted by vbfg at 5:12 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


I'm not sure if I want to live in a world where I don't get to see more videos of Mhairi Black preachin' it in parliament. She is so great and I will be crushed if she loses her seat.
posted by tractorfeed at 5:13 PM on June 8 [7 favorites]


can someone explain the "fields of wheat" shade for those of us on the other side of the pond?

May was asked in a interview what was the naughtiest thing she did as a child and it was 'running through fields to wheat' (which annoys farmers)
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 5:13 PM on June 8


bawbag: contemptible person (literally scrotum)
posted by scruss at 5:13 PM on June 8


First Labour gain from SNP in Rutherglen and Hamilton West.
posted by Catseye at 5:14 PM on June 8


Nigel Farage is a bawbag.
posted by ambrosen at 5:14 PM on June 8


I guess it'll be a while before May lets anyone ask her questions again, if at all.
posted by Artw at 5:14 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]




Jeremy Vine's graphic re Scotland looks totally mad. I can't honestly seeing it being that bad for the SNP

9% swing to Labour, lost Rutherglen.
posted by MattWPBS at 5:15 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


Theresa May was asked what the naughtiest thing she's ever done was. She said running through a field of wheat.

Finally, a leader that regular people can relate to. A leader who's been to the edge and knows how to avoid disaster.
posted by rhizome at 5:15 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]




Labour by far the biggest gainers in Harrogate and Knaresborough. Looks as though Labour's held steady in their poorer heartlands and made its gains in richer places.
posted by ambrosen at 5:15 PM on June 8


First Labour gain from SNP in Rutherglen and Hamilton West.

On something like a 10% swing against SNP... that SNP result in the exit poll not looking so mad now. Wow, what an election.
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 5:16 PM on June 8


I guess it'll be a while before May lets anyone ask her questions again, if at all.

I think someone's going to be asking her if she'll go quietly, or will make them push her.
posted by MattWPBS at 5:17 PM on June 8


Well, with over 20 results in, it feels like the exit polls are reasonably close. Certainly we aren't seeing a swing to the Tories, which means they won't be increasing their majority - which in turn makes this a real failure for them.

£ dropping by 2% against the $ indicates traders think there's a reduced Tory majority, if not a hung Parliament. What a turnaround! I wish I'd put money on a hung Parliament...
posted by adrianhon at 5:17 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


The day after the U.S. elections a newspaper online had a headline: World Leaders Call to Congratulate Trump. (To be fair people who write articles are not always those who write headlines.) So, I thought, well, I guess some world leaders are calling Trump, after all he did win. So I clicked on the story. Two world leaders (or 1.05): Putin and Farage.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 5:18 PM on June 8 [3 favorites]


which annoys farmers

Oh, it can be a bit naughtier than that.
posted by effbot at 5:18 PM on June 8


Has anyone put forward a reasonable explanation for where the UKIP voters went, since the swing to the Tories is a good bit less than the drop in UKIP support? There are a couple of ways that could have happened, including just better Labour turnout in general, but I'm wondering if there's any available data so far.
posted by zachlipton at 5:20 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


@carlmaxim FUN FACT: Crop circles are the result of Theresa May running through wheat fields and repeatedly performing U-turns.#fieldsofwheat
posted by tractorfeed at 5:21 PM on June 8 [4 favorites]


Has anyone put forward a reasonable explanation for where the UKIP voters went, since the swing to the Tories is a good bit less than the drop in UKIP support? There are a couple of ways that could have happened, including just better Labour turnout in general, but I'm wondering if there's any available data so far.

A lot of them would have been the left-behind working class from the deindustrialised cities of the North, and thus traditional Labour supporters, at least before Blairism.
posted by acb at 5:23 PM on June 8 [2 favorites]


Lord, give me the confidence of a Tory calling for a public vote.
posted by duffell at 5:23 PM on June 8 [20 favorites]


Can someone please explain what the heck the returning officer for Tooting is wearing and why he has to dress up like that in the middle of the night?
posted by zachlipton at 5:24 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


Just committed myself to staying up a few more hours by drinking tea so strong only an English person can handle it.
posted by Wordshore at 5:24 PM on June 8 [12 favorites]


Has anyone put forward a reasonable explanation for where the UKIP voters went, since the swing to the Tories is a good bit less than the drop in UKIP support?

Seen bits and pieces (e.g. on the Guardian) suggesting UKIP vote is splintering between Labour and Conservative.

On preview: agree with acb, a lot would be former working class Labour voters. Tories had apparently hoped that these voters could then be won from UKIP to Conservatives, but this doesn't seem to be happening.
posted by Pink Frost at 5:25 PM on June 8 [2 favorites]


Oh dudes, bawbag is not just a hurricane *rolls eyes*. It's a ball bag. Ball sack. Scrotum. Also a Scottish insult, used for someone who's a bit of a wide-o, a pain in the arse, got applied to a hurricane that caused lots of disruption.

Also: I'd forgotten this point in the night - where your tiredness and desperation to go to bed rises in perfect tandem with the intensity of the results coming in so you end up HAVING to stay up, hysteria bedamned.
posted by penguin pie at 5:26 PM on June 8 [11 favorites]


Labour hold Tooting, as I often do after eating cheese.
posted by miguelcervantes at 5:26 PM on June 8 [5 favorites]


On my third pint of water
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 5:27 PM on June 8 [5 favorites]


Can someone please explain what the heck the returning officer for Tooting is wearing and why he has to dress up like that in the middle of the night?

They're ceremonial mayoral robes. Presumably once you become a ceremonial borough mayor you have to wear the chains of office at all times, lest your illusory authority leeches away into the ether, never to return.
posted by dng at 5:27 PM on June 8 [11 favorites]


At the moment the UKIP crash feels a bit like watching Romania pull out of the Axis.

I mean obviously it's a good thing, but it's tricky to know if it means an end to evil is finally in sight.
posted by garius at 5:27 PM on June 8 [5 favorites]


You'd think an election this close to my time zone would mean I could go to bed at a reasonable hour, but noooooo.

(Glad, still.)
posted by nat at 5:28 PM on June 8


Corbyn now favourite to be next PM on betting sites?!?!
posted by adrianhon at 5:28 PM on June 8 [3 favorites]


Has anyone put forward a reasonable explanation for where the UKIP voters went, since the swing to the Tories is a good bit less than the drop in UKIP support?

Most of the rest will be the northern "I've always been a traditional Labour voter, but..." contingent that May's team thought they were in with a chance with. I think Labour's biggest story out of this is that theres a lot of Labour voters who switched parties but not really allegiances, and always considered themselves sort of Labour voters out on secondment until Labour got its act together. Suspect it'll be the same story with SNP -> LAB seats.
posted by Catseye at 5:29 PM on June 8 [8 favorites]


More Tory inside dope from the Spectator's James Forsyth: Am hearing Tories now giving up on a majority as they see more of the London results.

I've been wary of retiring to bed and waking up to find that, sometime around 5am, the Tories have clawed their losses back and sit gloating in victory. Now, not quite so much.
posted by acb at 5:29 PM on June 8 [5 favorites]


Someone has tweet Jeremy Corbyn is now fave to be PM on betfair. Through the looking glass.
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 5:29 PM on June 8


Mhairi Black holds Paisley. Which is nice.
posted by Grangousier at 5:30 PM on June 8 [20 favorites]




Jinx!
posted by Aya Hirano on the Astral Plane at 5:31 PM on June 8


Mhairi Black holds Paisley. Which is nice.

That wee lassie has a bright future ahead of her. I wouldn't be surprised if she's First Minister in a few elections' time.
posted by acb at 5:32 PM on June 8 [5 favorites]


Mhairi Black is a champion.
posted by h00py at 5:32 PM on June 8 [2 favorites]


Yay Mhairi! She is such an inspiring speaker. I am so glad she won.
posted by tractorfeed at 5:32 PM on June 8 [2 favorites]


This is petty and superficial of me, but I think there should be a rule that you automatically lose the election if you aren't wearing a rosette.
posted by zachlipton at 5:32 PM on June 8 [5 favorites]


Good for Mhairi. Absolutely deserved to hold onto that seat.
posted by garius at 5:34 PM on June 8


Seeing comments that if anything the exit poll was being kind to the Tories.... Oh god, the hope.
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 5:35 PM on June 8 [2 favorites]


So pleased about Mhairi!

(I'm taking my joy from things like this, and the look on Amber Rudd's face, and the evidence that all of Wales hasn't gone racist as fuck. I'm far too afraid to hope for more...)
posted by kalimac at 5:36 PM on June 8 [3 favorites]


Seeing comments that if anything the exit poll was being kind to the Tories.... Oh god, the hope.

As long as Labour don't get an outright majority. If they have to make concessions to the Lib Dems and/or Greens, that will counterbalance their pro-Brexit positioning.
posted by acb at 5:36 PM on June 8 [2 favorites]


Someone remind me again why May thought it was a good idea to trigger Article 50 before calling an election?
posted by Catseye at 5:37 PM on June 8


Glad Mhairi is back... fingers crossed for Angus Robertson too
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 5:38 PM on June 8


David Cameron, hold my pint!
posted by riverlife at 5:38 PM on June 8 [3 favorites]


Early results show my constituency of Stroud, currently held by Tories, is flipping to Labour.
posted by vacapinta at 5:39 PM on June 8 [10 favorites]


I would be so, so pleased if the Tories get toppled tonight. Not just so May's cynical ploy blows up in the party's face and the right wing media self-immolates, but more just to have some election results I can feel good about for a change. Kind of a long distance salve for wounds incurred last November.
posted by Aya Hirano on the Astral Plane at 5:40 PM on June 8 [13 favorites]


Someone remind me again why May thought it was a good idea to trigger Article 50 before calling an election?

Dunning-Kruger Effect?
posted by acb at 5:40 PM on June 8 [2 favorites]


Someone remind me again why May thought it was a good idea to trigger Article 50 before calling an election?

Something something, respecting the will of the people voting to drive the country the country off a cliff.

This election wasn't supposed to be about vetoing Brexit. It was supposed to be an easy win for Tories to pick up seats so they could go through the disentanglement from Europe without people like UKIP, DUP, or some backbencher with delusions of grandeur fucking it all up.
posted by Talez at 5:41 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


So this it what it looks like on MeFi when the better side is winning the vote.
posted by notyou at 5:41 PM on June 8 [20 favorites]


Also, Corbyn will be the first Prime Minister since Callahan not to be beholden to Rupert Murdoch or the Daily Mail. It's payback time...
posted by acb at 5:41 PM on June 8 [8 favorites]


So did the SNP not work out? What's the story with the Labour gains there?
posted by Artw at 5:42 PM on June 8


So this it what it looks like on MeFi when the better side is winning the vote.

GOING TOO FAR WITH THAT HOPE SHIT NOW.
posted by Artw at 5:43 PM on June 8 [35 favorites]


Metafilter's own is re-elected. Tories got more from UKIP than he did, though. Congratulations, baggymp!
posted by ambrosen at 5:43 PM on June 8 [30 favorites]


Is anyone else enjoying the sight of George Osborne moaning about how badly the Tories have done?
(e.g).

Also Metafilter's own has held his seat, after UKIP apparently didn't run a candidate.
posted by Pink Frost at 5:43 PM on June 8 [3 favorites]


Tory PMs calling major votes with the utter confidence it'll smooth their path to do what they want; coming unstuck.

Bit of a theme emerging.
posted by penguin pie at 5:44 PM on June 8 [5 favorites]


Is Watson the only MeFite in parliament?
posted by acb at 5:45 PM on June 8


Sounds like Greening has just managed to hold on to her seat in Putney.

Can't wait to see how Theresa May blames this election on Human Rights legislation.
posted by garius at 5:45 PM on June 8 [3 favorites]


All this after UKIP kindly decided not to run candidates in several constituencies. Wow.
posted by maudlin at 5:45 PM on June 8


So did the SNP not work out? What's the story with the Labour gains there?

That's going to be an interesting story as it was not predicted at all. May be people wanting a Corbyn PM rather that just more SNP seats?
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 5:46 PM on June 8


I have got my lucky nachos and my lucky wine and I am HERE until it's over, trying to use my best Cubs Fan hope. (Where you don't get too hoped up, but you get a little hopey. SOMETIMES THEY WIN.)

I can't believe what a clusterfuck this is for May, this is amazing.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 5:46 PM on June 8 [18 favorites]


I love watching the Wales constituencies announce their returns when they say the numbers first in Welsh because you know the people cheering first are the ones who are fluent in Welsh. It's so heartening that it's not just a ceremonial language and that people really speak it in daily life. Also the Tories really expected to make some gains there and it seems like they're disappointed (Wrexham, Clwyd South).
posted by tractorfeed at 5:47 PM on June 8 [12 favorites]


Meanwhile, I'm down to my last can of tonic water. (The gin supply's holding up, though.)
posted by acb at 5:48 PM on June 8 [2 favorites]


I join those who hope Nigel Farage will start to find his calls to BBC News unreturned, but I fear Lord Haw-Haw might find himself a second career on my side of the pond as a Fox News host.
posted by duffell at 5:49 PM on June 8 [6 favorites]


So did the SNP not work out? What's the story with the Labour gains there?

They're gaining because of SNP voters defecting to Tories - fecking Brexiters.
posted by Flitcraft at 5:49 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


SWINGOMETER KLAXON!
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 5:49 PM on June 8 [2 favorites]


Guess who's back
Back again
Marr is back
In Big Ben
Guess who's back Guess who's back Guess who's back
posted by threetwentytwo at 5:50 PM on June 8 [8 favorites]


Oh dear god this is like the sixth BBC cgi I've seen and it's a "swingometer" meant to be *inside* Big Ben's tower.
posted by tractorfeed at 5:50 PM on June 8


UKIP kindly decided not to run candidates in several constituencies.

I think it's more that they couldn't afford all the lost deposits. Only £500 a time, but think of all the other expenses, too.
posted by ambrosen at 5:50 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


Jeremy Vine auditioning for a remake of Knightmare.
posted by garius at 5:50 PM on June 8 [7 favorites]


I love watching the Wales constituencies announce their returns when they say the numbers first in Welsh because you know the people cheering first are the ones who are fluent in Welsh. It's so heartening that it's not just a ceremonial language and that people really speak it in daily life

English/Welsh speakers is a big political and cultural divide in Wales, from what I hear. There are, for example, two theatre and music scenes in Wales: an Anglophone one and a Welsh one, and the Welsh one offers tremendous networking opportunities for those who speak the language (which is not negotiable). Politically, Welsh speakers apparently voted strongly Remain, whereas English-speakers in Wales aligned with the left-behind voters of provincial England and voted Leave.
posted by acb at 5:51 PM on June 8 [4 favorites]


Yes, please don't let my schadenfreude at Tory/Conservative/fascist/Murdoch own-goals detract from the fact that they are already desperately spinning up sugar-and-salt-coated propaganda about how this only further shows that the masses can't be trusted to actually know what they want and so must be muscled into proper shape whatever the (inevitably puni-fuckin-tive) means.
posted by riverlife at 5:51 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


10% swing from Tories to Labour in Putney (Tories still held though). That could be huge if replicates in more areas of London.
posted by MattWPBS at 5:52 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


I join those who hope Nigel Farage will start to find his calls to BBC News unreturned, but I fear Lord Haw-Haw might find himself a second career on my side of the pond as a Fox News host.

Or perhaps on RT, live from Moscow. And carefully researching extradition treaties before he travels abroad.
posted by acb at 5:52 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


Here's an illustrative video on the UKIP question - it's an interview with a former UKIP voter who has moved to Labour.
posted by tractorfeed at 5:53 PM on June 8 [3 favorites]


Vale of Clwyd the first Tory seat to fall.
posted by Talez at 5:53 PM on June 8


"[Former Welsh secretary Peter] Hain said May had campaigned negatively while Corbyn had given hope, especially to young people, on the NHS, housing, care for the elderly." - Guardian liveblog.

Interesting, an English colleague of mine said the same thing to me this morning.
posted by Aya Hirano on the Astral Plane at 5:54 PM on June 8 [2 favorites]


Can someone explain the Northern Ireland parties and what's good for Labour vs. Tories? I'm up on my Plaid Cymru and my SNP, but in NI I'm lost.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 5:55 PM on June 8




WTF is up with the Tory win in Angus? Is that some traditionally tory-blighted area?
posted by Artw at 5:56 PM on June 8


GET HYPE!

You stop that right now!
posted by Artw at 5:57 PM on June 8 [12 favorites]


Philip Davies gone in Shipley!
posted by garius at 6:00 PM on June 8 [4 favorites]


Philip Davies gone in Shipley!

To Labour, not the WEP, but that's a minor detail. Good riddance to bad rubbish.
posted by acb at 6:00 PM on June 8 [3 favorites]


Jeremy Corbyn is now odds-on favourite to become next prime minister

THE ABSOLUTE BOY!
posted by indubitable at 6:00 PM on June 8 [7 favorites]


Oh COME ON. Now Farage is on my TV?!
posted by garius at 6:01 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


Fuck me why is Farrage on the BBC again. Maybe we can speak to a party that has some fucking MPs?
posted by EndsOfInvention at 6:01 PM on June 8 [14 favorites]


WTF is up with the Tory win in Angus? Is that some traditionally tory-blighted area?

Much of Scotland was Tory territory before Thatcher. (Something to do with Calvinism perhaps?) Scotland only became the notional rusted-on socialist-utopia-in-waiting it is today after Thatcher's Poll Tax in the late 80s.
posted by acb at 6:02 PM on June 8


I think there's going to be a lot of Tory gains in Scotland. Perth and North Perthshire's gone to a recount with the SNP previous MP (and Runrig keyboard player) Pete Wishart 36 votes ahead on the first counting.
posted by ambrosen at 6:03 PM on June 8


David Mitchell has been fucking killing it on C4
posted by anagrama at 6:03 PM on June 8


Yay for Battersea! Incumbent defeated with a 10% swing to Labour
posted by tractorfeed at 6:03 PM on June 8 [5 favorites]


Big swing in Battersea, Lab gain from Con.
posted by EndsOfInvention at 6:04 PM on June 8 [2 favorites]


God I'm proud to be a Londoner.
posted by garius at 6:04 PM on June 8 [7 favorites]


Farage BACK on the BBC? Oh fuck right off with this
posted by Automocar at 6:05 PM on June 8


Fucking hell a black woman just won for Labour, to be ignored by the BBC in favour of Fargle (elections won: Absolute zero)
posted by threetwentytwo at 6:05 PM on June 8 [14 favorites]


I join those who hope Nigel Farage will start to find his calls to BBC News unreturned

Nicely done with tempting fate. He's on the telly now talking about coming back to UK politics.

Labour just took Battersea from the Conservatives with a 10% swing.
posted by MattWPBS at 6:05 PM on June 8


Battersea - first tory minister gone. Hopefully not the first.
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 6:05 PM on June 8


Oh yes I forgot we all know how fuckin irrelevant Fargle is
posted by threetwentytwo at 6:06 PM on June 8


Battersea - first tory minister gone. Hopefully not the first.

Wasn't Vale of Clwyd a Labour gain from Conservatives?
posted by badmoonrising at 6:08 PM on June 8


Ok, I take it back. Don't go to bed. You don't want to miss this.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 6:08 PM on June 8


My god. The exit poll really just maybe might be real life.
posted by zachlipton at 6:08 PM on June 8 [2 favorites]


Wasn't Vale of Clwyd a Labour gain from Conservatives?

It was, but the Conservative MP there wasn't a minister in the cabinet.
posted by dng at 6:09 PM on June 8


Repolishing my crystal ball and taking back early prediction re SNP... the're gonna get smashed.
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 6:10 PM on June 8




Oh man, I want to catch David Mitchell's take on this, but I can't view the C4 stream from the US.

Is this how British mefites feel like, the rest of the time? Goddamn shit
posted by duffell at 6:10 PM on June 8 [5 favorites]


Harry Potter Retire Bruv
posted by Potomac Avenue at 6:10 PM on June 8 [2 favorites]


Two more gains for Labour: Stockton South (was Con) and Leeds West (was LD).
posted by EndsOfInvention at 6:10 PM on June 8


This is getting my hopes up. I'm starting to become cautiously optimistic that this won't be a car crash.
posted by Dysk at 6:10 PM on June 8 [4 favorites]


Oh man, I want to catch David Mitchell's take on this, but I can't view the C4 stream from the US.

I feel much the same but I can't fucking stand Jeremy Paxman (who's also on C4 right now) so am also unable to watch.
posted by penguin pie at 6:11 PM on June 8 [3 favorites]


From my faraway perspective I'm thinking the Trump Universal Raw Disgust (TURD) factor may be responsible for the Labor surge. Possibly a combination of his World Tour and Khan tweets. He helped out in France.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 6:12 PM on June 8 [3 favorites]


Someone should do a song to the tune of OMD's Enola Gay:

“Theresa May,
Why did you have to call a poll today?
Oh, oh, Theresa May,
You fought dirty but you lost anyway”
(monosynth twiddling)
posted by acb at 6:12 PM on June 8 [8 favorites]


UK elections: Thank you for helping temper the trauma of seeing RED across a map and tall columns. The opposite of last November.
posted by Sockin'inthefreeworld at 6:12 PM on June 8 [5 favorites]


I feel much the same but I can't fucking stand Jeremy Paxman (who's also on C4 right now) so am also unable to watch

Also, Julia Hartley-Brewer, the Poundshop Katie Hopkins. no thanks.
posted by threetwentytwo at 6:14 PM on June 8 [2 favorites]


Hugs everyone...I'm watching from the US biting my nails and hoping.
posted by Annika Cicada at 6:14 PM on June 8 [2 favorites]


From my faraway perspective I'm thinking the Trump Universal Raw Disgust (TURD) factor may be responsible for the Labor surge.

I've been thinking that but didn't want to make a UK election about the USA. So I'll just maybe secretly hope its true. We may self-immolate but perhaps others can learn from it.
posted by Justinian at 6:15 PM on June 8 [6 favorites]


For anyone who didn't know, Julia Hartley-Brewer, currently on c4, is an aspirant Katie Hopkins and Utterly The Worst.
posted by ominous_paws at 6:15 PM on June 8 [3 favorites]


What's the quote about your fate may be to be an tragic example to others? If the US is currently being that to the rest of the world, well at least there was *something* good to be had from our shitshow of an election.
posted by tavella at 6:15 PM on June 8 [2 favorites]


Jinx!
posted by ominous_paws at 6:16 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


Guys, we had fucking Brexit, we didn't need President Cheeto to warn us.
posted by penguin pie at 6:17 PM on June 8 [44 favorites]


That thing where they pass ballot boxes like it's a bucket line is super exciting. Wish we could that here.
posted by longdaysjourney at 6:18 PM on June 8


BBC claiming Tories are now not expecting to outperform the exit polls. Gosh.
posted by doop at 6:19 PM on June 8 [5 favorites]


Tories take an SNP seat in Moray.
posted by tractorfeed at 6:19 PM on June 8


I gotta tingle in my Pringle. Folks,
posted by Potomac Avenue at 6:20 PM on June 8


Cons take Moray... Angus Robertson (SNP Dep Leader) gone.
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 6:20 PM on June 8


If you want to know what it's like over here this American leftist currently in Canada bought a round for all the kitchen and dining room workers of this restaurant.

SHOTS FOR SOCIALISM.
posted by The Whelk at 6:20 PM on June 8 [33 favorites]


Tories just took Angus Robertson's Morey SNP seat. That's the leader of the SNP in Westminster gone on a 15% swing.
posted by MattWPBS at 6:21 PM on June 8


Yeah, I had an American friend staying with me during Brexit and as she left, we were both like 'gosh, hope the USA learns from this before the election!'

Sometimes things happen in the world that have nothing to do with America! Very few people here will have thought about Trump as part of voting in this election.
posted by theseldomseenkid at 6:21 PM on June 8 [13 favorites]


Cons take Murray... Angus Robertson (SNP Dep Leader) gone.

I wonder what the story behind this is. It seems (from all the way down here in Essex) to be an entirely baffling result.
posted by dng at 6:22 PM on June 8


Kind of tired, kind of want to stay up to see Hastings if Amber Rudd goes, and Maidenhead just to see May's face.
posted by MattWPBS at 6:23 PM on June 8 [2 favorites]


Scottish Independence vote/result not looking as likely as it once did now
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 6:23 PM on June 8


Hastings on third recount
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 6:24 PM on June 8


Amber Rudd refusing to give up until she finds the person with the right hashtags.
posted by garius at 6:25 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


Corbyn's high 5 doesn't seem to have gone so well [video]
posted by zachlipton at 6:25 PM on June 8


Also, what effects will the SNP's losses have on their strategy of pushing to remain in the single market and for independence otherwise. I'm guessing (from this and other sources) that the Scottish electorate's enthusiasm for independence has waned, and it's not likely to happen any time soon. Will the SNP change its strategy? (I imagine it has to do something to avoid being subsumed by the Tory/Labour duopoly or turned into a weird little regional minor party.)
posted by acb at 6:25 PM on June 8


I wonder what the story behind this is. It seems (from all the way down here in Essex) to be an entirely baffling result.

All I can see is that it's "no thanks" on Indy Ref 2.

BBC forecast - 322 Tory seats.
posted by MattWPBS at 6:25 PM on June 8


They're just talking about SNP's losses on C4. A lot of people have turned against a 2nd independence referrendum, and the SNP were very strongly in favour of one. They've also been in power for 10 years and have not performed as well as people want on stuff like schools and healthcare (this is me trying to paraphrase the C4 guy).
posted by EndsOfInvention at 6:26 PM on June 8


Probably a repeat, but funny nonetheless:

Is it a UK parliamentary constituency or a Game of Thrones location?

"Maidstone and The Weald" <3 <3 <3
posted by longdaysjourney at 6:26 PM on June 8


SNP are really collapsing in some areas.
posted by MattWPBS at 6:26 PM on June 8


So ... former UKIP voters are primarily swinging to Labour, and former SNP voters are primarily swinging to the Tories?

I really do not understand my fellow humans.
posted by kyrademon at 6:26 PM on June 8 [11 favorites]


Is it a UK parliamentary constituency or a Game of Thrones location?

<accent type="American">“I love you Brits! You're so quaint!”</accent>
posted by acb at 6:27 PM on June 8 [6 favorites]


What's the green I'm seeing on a bunch of maps for bits of Wales? A Welsh party akin to the SNP in Scotland?
posted by Justinian at 6:27 PM on June 8


I wonder what the story behind this is. It seems (from all the way down here in Essex) to be an entirely baffling result.

A no on Indyref2, a yes on Brexit, an assumption that the SNP would wipe the board so a protest vote was appropriate, Ruth Davidson's personal popularity. Stack 'em up (unfortunately).
posted by penguin pie at 6:28 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


former UKIP voters are primarily swinging to Labour,

These are former Labour voters who swung to UKIP in the first place, remember. They wanted Brexit, they got Brexit, who needs UKIP any more?
posted by EndsOfInvention at 6:28 PM on June 8


BBC forecast - 322 Tory seats.

So, a workable majority with Ulster unionists in play?
posted by acb at 6:28 PM on June 8


What's the green I'm seeing on a bunch of maps for bits of Wales? A Welsh party akin to the SNP in Scotland?

Plaid Cymru
posted by EndsOfInvention at 6:29 PM on June 8 [2 favorites]


> "What's the green I'm seeing on a bunch of maps for bits of Wales?"

Plaid Cymru.

> "A Welsh party akin to the SNP in Scotland?"

Yes.
posted by kyrademon at 6:29 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


so should we expect a surge of conservative seats at some point that surpasses the labour/SNP seats?
posted by Annika Cicada at 6:29 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


Thanks, kyrademon. I know some about Scottish politics but very little about Welsh.
posted by Justinian at 6:30 PM on June 8


So I'm seeing that the Tories are expected to pick up about 320 seats on Twitter, which wouldn't be enough for an outright majority except that Sinn Fein are doing well in Northern Ireland and if they win the election, they refuse to swear an Oath to the Queen or take their seats. So the amount needed for a majority might be somewhere around 322.

I said, once the exit polls came in, that May was still likely for PM but this has fatally wounded her. Probably not enough to stop Brexit, but certainly there's more career behind her than in front of her at this point.
posted by Merus at 6:31 PM on June 8


Actually...
posted by Potomac Avenue at 6:32 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


“I love you Brits! You're so quaint!”

More like envy. My congressional district is Virginia-08. Inspiring it is not.
posted by longdaysjourney at 6:32 PM on June 8


[Folks, I know we have a lot of non-UK users in here, but please, if you're making a comment that is about you-and-not-the-subject, or asking a basic question, consider skipping it (and googling, etc.) This is a site with many, many opportunities for US folks to center the conversation on themselves, and this shouldn't be one of them.]
posted by restless_nomad at 6:32 PM on June 8 [59 favorites]


so should we expect a surge of conservative seats at some point that surpasses the labour/SNP seats?

A lot of the rural Tory safe seats wont declare until tomorrow
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 6:33 PM on June 8 [2 favorites]


Justine Greening claiming it's always tough in Putney. She had a 10k majority in 2015, that's down to about 1k.
posted by MattWPBS at 6:33 PM on June 8


Really depressed about Angus Robertson losing his seat. Some really good people being voted out. Possibly Farron and Clegg too. This all feels more chaotic than any kind of coordinated swing to the left.
posted by vacapinta at 6:34 PM on June 8 [2 favorites]


Ignorant American question: could these SNP losses be bad enough to counterbalance the Tories' losses and wind up giving May a majority after all?
posted by scaryblackdeath at 6:36 PM on June 8


Sometimes things happen in the world that have nothing to do with America! Very few people here will have thought about Trump as part of voting in this election.

I dunno -- May's utter lack of leadership when Trump went after Khan after the London Bridge attacks may have pushed some voters over into the "anyone but May" camp. That was about as clear a confirmation of Macron's "UK as a vassal state, a junior partner to the US" observation as it could get.
posted by effbot at 6:37 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


Ignorant American question: could these SNP losses be bad enough to counterbalance the Tories' losses and wind up giving May a majority after all?

Yup.

The night is very, very young.
posted by garius at 6:37 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


kyrademon: So ... former UKIP voters are primarily swinging to Labour, and former SNP voters are primarily swinging to the Tories?

I really do not understand my fellow humans.


In The True Believer, Hoffer pointed out that Communists and Nazis were each other's best recruits in Weimar Germany. See also: Former French Communists voting for Le Pen. There's a large block of people in many elections who will vote for whoever they think is most likely to stick it to the Establishment. Precisely how the Establishment gets enstickened is a lesser concern for those voters, so long as some sort of stick is applied.
posted by clawsoon at 6:37 PM on June 8 [8 favorites]


Both Scottish Labour and the Tories urged people to vote tactically against the SNP... this looks to have paid dividends.
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 6:37 PM on June 8


David Nuttall is out, and I couldn't be happier about it, even if they're now predicting a narrow Tory government. Good riddance to that essence of unreconstruction.

A thing that is surprising me is that the SNP seems to be taking a beating. Is that accurate, or were these expected losses?
posted by Errant at 6:37 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


*silent visceral screaming*
posted by Bloxworth Snout at 6:38 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


And now on non-preview, I see that's largely been answered, thanks.
posted by Errant at 6:38 PM on June 8


merus: So I'm seeing that the Tories are expected to pick up about 320 seats on Twitter

So now Twitter gets seats, too? This really is a dystopian fantasy.
posted by clawsoon at 6:39 PM on June 8 [12 favorites]


Be very ironic if the Tory gains in Scotland save them
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 6:39 PM on June 8


A thing that is surprising me is that the SNP seems to be taking a beating. Is that accurate, or were these expected losses?

Definitely not expected. They had such a landslide last time that a bit of a swing away wouldn't have been a huge surprise, but nothing on this scale.
posted by penguin pie at 6:39 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


Yeah, vacapinta, I think Clegg's very likely gone, and that's sad. Not heard about Farron. Even though it looks like we're getting a Lib Dem in Bath to replace our Tory, it looks as though the Lib Dems are very much the victims of circumstance. In Wells, rumours are that Labour might have split their vote, and the Tory will get in. Having driven through most of Somerset on Sunday, I did see more orange than blue in all the constituencies I was in, but Wells was the bluest (and a few Labour signs).
posted by ambrosen at 6:40 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


A thing that is surprising me is that the SNP seems to be taking a beating. Is that accurate, or were these expected losses?

They were expected to lose a few seats, may be quite a few, but not this bad
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 6:41 PM on June 8


Does anyone know if these SNP->Tory swings consistent with the exit poll results? Because they're increasingly terrifying to my distant eyes.
posted by zachlipton at 6:41 PM on June 8 [2 favorites]


Be very ironic if the Tory gains in Scotland save them

I'm pretty sure Scotland was supposed to give power to the tories by leaving the union, not by voting for them.
posted by effbot at 6:42 PM on June 8 [2 favorites]


penguin pie, that's my feeling too. With this big youth turnout, I would have expected them to consolidate, but tactical voting does seem to have had its effect.
posted by Errant at 6:42 PM on June 8


I dunno -- May's utter lack of leadership when Trump went after Khan after the London Bridge attacks may have pushed some voters over into the "anyone but May" camp. That was about as clear a confirmation of Macron's "UK as a vassal state, a junior partner to the US" observation as it could get.

Depends on your group and concerns I'd guess - I volunteer in very deprived areas and the people I speak with there are much more motivated by 'continuing to have access to free healthcare' and 'the possibility of jobs that pay enough to live on' and 'not having to use food banks' than 'Theresa May didn't have a go about something Trump said on Twitter'. But they're not everyone who votes - these sorts of perceptions are always going to be subject to the kind of people you spend time with!
posted by theseldomseenkid at 6:43 PM on June 8 [6 favorites]


I think that a lot of the Tory losses in England will be due to devolved matters, especially the NHS. With the SNP being stuck to what Westminster allocates for funding their policies, they'll have quite possibly been delivering poorer services, and will be the face of the government in many ways more than Westminster is. I think that must be causing a lot of their vote losses.

As well as the fact that in this period of uncertainty, IndyRef2 seems far too scary.
posted by ambrosen at 6:43 PM on June 8


In a lot of SNP seats now going/leaning CON, the other two unionist parties Labour and LDs - were massively failing down their campaigns. Same for other seats SNP were vulnerable. Depending on who you believe, this is either the result of limited resources or a deliberate decision to put forward paper candidates so the anti-SNP vote wouldn't be split.

Long story short, it's a different election in Scotland. But don't blame us if the Tories get in due to Lab/LD decision that they're preferable to SNP.
posted by Catseye at 6:43 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


Sky News updated forecast:
They expect the Tories to get between 308 and 328 seats. Their central forecast is 318
posted by EndsOfInvention at 6:43 PM on June 8




Fucking FPTP.
posted by Artw at 6:45 PM on June 8 [6 favorites]


Recount at Canterbury.... high number of students but it's been tory for 150 years.
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 6:46 PM on June 8


I think Clegg's very likely gone, and that's sad. Not heard about Farron.

Botting (Sky News): Bundle recount in Westmorland & Lonsdale. Reports there may be as little as 300 votes between @timfarron and conservative rival #Vote2017
posted by effbot at 6:46 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


Bye bye Nick Clegg.
posted by zachlipton at 6:47 PM on June 8


Nick Clegg just lost his seat to Labour
posted by EndsOfInvention at 6:47 PM on June 8


Clegg looks like he's fighting back tears after losing Sheffield Hallam. That's a real loss to Parliament.
posted by MattWPBS at 6:47 PM on June 8 [5 favorites]


I can't help but giggle at Nick Clegg's face right now. Better luck next career.
posted by Mister Fabulous at 6:47 PM on June 8 [3 favorites]


Well I think the night is over. Nowhere near enough are coming in from the Tory marginal. Tories will caucus with DUP to form government and get through the Queen's Speech.

Then who knows what the fuck happens.
posted by Talez at 6:48 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


stupid american question: is May's own seat safe?
posted by murphy slaw at 6:48 PM on June 8


Here are the counts for Stroud. Carmichael was our Tory MP:

#Stroud result: Drew (Lab) 29994 Carmichael 29307 Wilkinson (LD) 2053 Lunnon (Grn) 1423 Gogerly (Ukip) 1039
posted by vacapinta at 6:49 PM on June 8 [2 favorites]


Yes May's seat is safe. But her position in the party as PM is very much in doubt.
posted by tractorfeed at 6:51 PM on June 8 [2 favorites]


Thank you so much to those upthread who mentioned that David Mitchell was on C4.
posted by figurant at 6:52 PM on June 8


stupid american question: is May's own seat safe?

Stupid American answer: Her riding was created in the last election, so there isn't a lot of history based on that. However, the ridings that used to be in that area have voted Tory for at least ~150 years. It's safe.
posted by Mister Fabulous at 6:52 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


There's a real risk Boris Johnson might become prime minister after this.
posted by flippant at 6:52 PM on June 8 [3 favorites]


VINCE CABLE IS BACK THOUGH.
posted by MattWPBS at 6:54 PM on June 8 [3 favorites]


Whoop whoop. Stella blitzes it again.

Walthamstow:
Lab: 80.5% (+11.7)
Con: 14.1% (+0.7)
LDem: 2.9% (-1.1)
Grn: 2.5% (-3.9)
posted by garius at 6:55 PM on June 8 [5 favorites]


I can't help but giggle at Nick Clegg's face right now.

If you don't even know that the word for a voting region is constituency, you probably lack the nuance to understand that Nick Clegg is felt by many to be a genuine, kind and thoughtful person who was shafted by circumstance and the Tories. No need for snideness unless it's well informed snideness.
posted by ambrosen at 6:57 PM on June 8 [27 favorites]


Glasgow North East just went to Labour from SNP by 300 votes.
posted by MattWPBS at 6:58 PM on June 8


This is slightly off topic, but I really appreciate that UK ballots are reported once the entire riding is fully counted. In Canada, the results from individual polling sites are broadcast nationally as soon as they report. This leads to seats where, eg. the NDP candidate for Calgary Centre is in the lead, for 45 minutes, with 1% of polls reporting.

It's not the end of the world, but it's quite aggravating.
posted by figurant at 7:01 PM on June 8 [2 favorites]


I have woken up (briefly I hope) to what appears to be a catastrophic night for May, a very bad night for the Tories, and...well...for everyone else, who knows? It looks like the Tories will still be able to govern, just about, but beyond that, it's not really clear what the hell is going to happen - or really even what is happening. The only interpretation that seems to add up to my sleep addled brain is that (May's terrible campaigning and Corbyn's decent performance aside) this election is shaped by people's responses to a single issue (Brexit) in a way that is entirely unprecedented in British politics - but that responses to Brexit are massively more complex and disparate than most of us (certainly me) were really accounting for. Hence certain subgroups in certain constituencies have swung in ways that were very difficult to poll for on a national level.

This, much more than Brexit (which was more a failure of interpretation than polling itself), represents a huge polling failure, but not of the ordinary sort, where better overall modelling would be required. There appears to be an emerging systemic complexity in British politics that was, I suspect, almost impossible to poll for using standard methods. My parents have been campaigning in South East Cornwall (having cut short their yachting around Spain to come back and sleep on the floor of my late grandfather's currently empty house and roam the lanes canvasing anything that stands still - can't fault their dedication), and my dad says that, in 40 years of campaigning, this is the most confused and uncertain he's ever seen an electorate. It seems his anecdotal observation was worth as much as any of the polls, in this case. As such then, even at this point in the night, we're not sure at all what the hell Parliament will look like by tomorrow evening.

This is going to take a lot of thinking about. And we're going to need to work out what to do next. There are real opportunities here to make the next decade a less horrifying one than I was pretty much convinced it would be, but exactly how best to proceed is almost entirely unclear to me.

But what do I know? The answer, comrades, is quite clearly 'fuck all'.
posted by howfar at 7:02 PM on June 8 [17 favorites]


This is slightly off topic, but I really appreciate that UK ballots are reported once the entire riding is fully counted.
*Through clenched teeth* It's not a riding, it's a constituency.

posted by penguin pie at 7:04 PM on June 8 [16 favorites]


Ben Gummer has lost his seat in Ipswich!
posted by paduasoy at 7:04 PM on June 8 [2 favorites]


Ok, I don't want to get into a whole thing, but its my view that Clegg assisted the Tories, and did very little to stop the Tories outright attack on the disabled and the poor. You might disagree with that, but please don't suggest that others "lack nuance" for not thinking that Clegg could have done a hell a lot more than he did.
posted by threetwentytwo at 7:04 PM on June 8 [16 favorites]


Big fan of Jess. Hopefully her rather horrible LD opponent loses bigly.

Birmingham, Yardley:

Lab: 57.1% (+15.4)
Con: 19.8% (+5.8)
LDem: 17.9% (-7.7)
UKIP: 4.3% (-11.8)
Grn: 0.6% (-1.1)
posted by effbot at 7:04 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


Yay, so happy Labour swept Wirral, hanging on to the two marginals.
posted by skybluepink at 7:06 PM on June 8


Communist League got 7 votes in Jeremy Corbyn's constituency.
posted by MattWPBS at 7:07 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


There's a real risk Boris Johnson might become prime minister after this.

My first reaction to this: At least then his insufferable bickering from the sidelines will stop, so maybe that's not the worst outcome.

But then I thought of Trump...
posted by sour cream at 7:08 PM on June 8 [2 favorites]


penguin pie: *Through clenched teeth* It's not a riding, it's a constituency.

What's that? Every shire gets a seat?

Sorry, don't mean to cause you dental problems.
posted by clawsoon at 7:08 PM on June 8 [4 favorites]


So constituencies are in the 60,000 to 85,000 range mostly, so 700 voters is about 1%. Helps me to see how big or small a swing we're talking. Winning by 1500 votes is pretty respectable at probably 2%. Winning by 300 votes is probably a 0.5% margin.

The average size of a Congressional constituency in the US is 700,000ish, so a factor of 10 difference if your mind is tuned to US results.

I don't know who this guy behind Corbyn who is dressed as the Mad Hatter is, but I like the cut of his jib. (Also, good shade, Corbyn!)
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 7:10 PM on June 8


The Lib Dems take Bath from the Tories. I like that town.
posted by vacapinta at 7:11 PM on June 8 [3 favorites]


threetwentytwo, I have no problem at all with someone who lives in Britain celebrating Clegg's loss*. But someone who's not in Britain, like the person I was responding to? Yep, they're playing with our country like it's sportsball.

*actually, I do feel a pang of pain about it, but I totally respect and understand why you would.
posted by ambrosen at 7:11 PM on June 8 [7 favorites]


That's the Official Monster Raving Loony candidate, Eyebrows.
posted by skybluepink at 7:11 PM on June 8 [2 favorites]


At this level of SNP loss, is Sturgeon safe as party leader?
posted by Chrysostom at 7:12 PM on June 8




Lord Buckethead is at the Maidenhead count.
posted by MattWPBS at 7:13 PM on June 8


The Lib Dems take Bath from the Tories. I like that towncity[😉].

Damn, I was meaning to watch that get streamed. Fuck Ben Howlett for lying to my face on Twitter in January, and his unrepentant support of all the local council cuts.
posted by ambrosen at 7:14 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


At this level of SNP loss, is Sturgeon safe as party leader?

Yes... they'll still be the majority in Scotland and she's the leader in The Scottish Parliament
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 7:15 PM on June 8


"More Reading"
posted by Potomac Avenue at 7:15 PM on June 8


Boris is awful, but no Trump. Trump is next level evil and stupid.
posted by Artw at 7:16 PM on June 8


Should we maybe have two threads, one where people in Britain can talk about the election with each other, and another where we can take it turns to explain it to people not in Britain?
posted by penguin pie at 7:16 PM on June 8 [31 favorites]


Official Monster Raving Loony Party

Someone should make an FPP about them, but I'd just like to mention their former leader Catmando, "the only cat ever to have been named leader of a political party. [citation needed]"
posted by effbot at 7:17 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


Canterbury may have gone to Labour, Tories held it since 1918.
posted by MattWPBS at 7:17 PM on June 8


LORD BUCKETHEAD KLAXON
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 7:20 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


penguin pie I regret I only have one favourite to give that comment but I gave it as quickly as I could.
posted by theseldomseenkid at 7:20 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


249 votes for Lord Buckethead!
posted by zachlipton at 7:20 PM on June 8 [2 favorites]


ambrosen: Coming from an American like myself (but one who lives in the UK!), the word 'town' is affectionate. Think 'New York, New York, what a wonderful town!'

Also gutted by the loss of Clegg who, if you have been following him recently, has been a great advocate of reason, of moderation, in these chaotic times. And I'll continue to read and enjoy his articles in the New European.
posted by vacapinta at 7:20 PM on June 8 [2 favorites]


Hee, May's on stage, waiting to be reelected in her very safe seat, looking like she's sucking on a lemon...
posted by skybluepink at 7:20 PM on June 8


Maidenhead, important candidates:

Lord Buckethead - 249
Howling Lord Haupe - 119
Animal Welfare - 282
Elmo - 3

Some woman called May won though.
posted by MattWPBS at 7:21 PM on June 8 [3 favorites]


Sorry, I'll just show myself out, then.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:21 PM on June 8


Official Monster Raving Loony Party

They've had an 'interesting' history... remember this Jon Ronson story.
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 7:21 PM on June 8 [2 favorites]


SNP loses East Dunbartonshire to Lib Dems

Fuck
posted by scruss at 7:21 PM on June 8


Good on you Bedford for going Lab!

(Though it looks like their history isn't quite as solid blue as I would guess from the rest of Bedfordshire.)
posted by Artw at 7:22 PM on June 8


Bobby Smith, Give Me Back Elmo... 3 votes
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 7:22 PM on June 8


So the moral of this story seems to be "do not call early elections in the UK, get involved in a land war in Asia or go in against a Sicilian when death is on the line"
posted by Annika Cicada at 7:23 PM on June 8 [3 favorites]


vacapinta, I hadn't taken offence at all. I'm from Birmingham, so even though I've been in Bath 10 years I do quite often get that "wow, everything's so small" feeling. Cosy more often than twee, thankfully.
posted by ambrosen at 7:24 PM on June 8


Some stirring oratory from Theresa May here.
posted by dng at 7:24 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


Hahahahahahaha! She's still going on about stability. Does she not get how badly she's fucked up, and how unstable she has made it?
posted by MattWPBS at 7:24 PM on June 8 [6 favorites]


Wow, May sounds terrible, like she's barely holding it together.
posted by skybluepink at 7:25 PM on June 8


Thank you Mr Finger. Biggest laugh of the night.
posted by rongorongo at 7:27 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


Wow, May sounds terrible, like she's barely holding it together.

Yeah, I think she was expecting something a bit different tonight...
posted by badmoonrising at 7:28 PM on June 8


New BBC forecast

318 Conservative MPs.
32 SNP
11 Lib Dem
3 Plaid
1 Green

Tim Farron retains seat.
posted by MattWPBS at 7:28 PM on June 8


That Elmo dude is an anti-Feminist MRA "Father's rights" activist.
posted by tractorfeed at 7:28 PM on June 8


I remember Lord Buckethead standing against John Major... I really hope it's the same guy
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 7:29 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


Lib Dems take Eastbourne from Conservatives.
posted by MattWPBS at 7:29 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


Frankly, Elmo always struck me as dim and patronising
posted by Merus at 7:29 PM on June 8 [2 favorites]


Also gutted by the loss of Clegg who, if you have been following him recently, has been a great advocate of reason, of moderation, in these chaotic times. And I'll continue to read and enjoy his articles in the New European.


I haven't been following him recently, however I do keep in touch with my graduates, who now have an average debt of £40k when they finish their programmes.
posted by biffa at 7:29 PM on June 8 [26 favorites]


New BBC forecast is:

318 Conservative
267 Labour
32 SNP
11 LD
3 PC
1 Green
18 Other

Pushes it slightly better for the Tories. They barely get over the line at 327 if they join up with the DUP.
posted by zachlipton at 7:30 PM on June 8


penguin pie: Should we maybe have two threads, one where people in Britain can talk about the election with each other, and another where we can take it turns to explain it to people not in Britain?

We're just showing that we care. Here in Canada, that's as much as we ever hope for. We'd love to explain Canadian elections to you in Canadian election threads. Just ask. Please. Somebody?
posted by clawsoon at 7:30 PM on June 8 [30 favorites]


I remember Lord Buckethead standing against John Major... I really hope it's the same guy

Apparently stood against Maggie too.
posted by MattWPBS at 7:31 PM on June 8


Lib Dems take Eastbourne from Conservatives.

Eastbourne is a seaside area with a large old-age pensioner population. Perhaps the Dementia Tax did the Tories in there?
posted by acb at 7:31 PM on June 8


Lord Buckethead is the candidate on the right with the bucket on their head
posted by rhizome at 7:33 PM on June 8 [4 favorites]


I remember Lord Buckethead standing against John Major... I really hope it's the same guy

I hope it's a different guy, and it's passed down from person to person like the Dread Pirate Roberts

There'll be a Lord Buckethead in the 24th century. It's a fixture of British democracy, like Sinn Fein symbolically refusing to take their seats even though independent Ireland was destroyed by self-replicating green goo in 2217, or the first-past-the-post system
posted by Merus at 7:33 PM on June 8 [29 favorites]


Nuttall stuffed in Skeggy! Only 3000 votes against 20 odd thou Tory
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 7:33 PM on June 8 [2 favorites]


Oh god, I am so tired, my whole face hurts from some gruesome oral surgery earlier this week, and I can't tear myself away from this.
posted by skybluepink at 7:35 PM on June 8


IDS scrapes through in Chingford. Shame. We thought we had him this time. Demographics really aren't in his favour and getting worse, but this election just came a little bit too soon for that to come home to roost.
posted by garius at 7:36 PM on June 8


I imagine the Tories will just barely string together a government with help from the Unionists in Northern Ireland. I can't imagine Corbyn actually being able to actually forming anything remotely stable if the the Tories fail to form a government. Of course the Tories are completely fucked because their margins would be wafer thin and while the Unionists would be reliable coalition partners even then just about any defectors would cripple the PMs ability to get anything done.

I assume that Brexit will still go forward because the Tories will be terrified of looking weak but at the same time they'll have zero negotiating power and any economic collapse as a result of Brexit will basically fuck them in any future election.

What's interesting is that it seems like Labour has the potential of making a workable voting coalition in the future, perhaps only tempered by the conversion of several seats in in Scotland going from SNP all the way to the Conservatives which seems to be a solid repudiation of Scottish independence more than an endorsement of May and the the Conservatives.
posted by vuron at 7:36 PM on June 8


Amber Rudd asking for 7th recount.
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 7:37 PM on June 8 [4 favorites]


Just got to check in on the UK election, and I'm so happy for y'all in the UK cos it looks like May seriously bungled this one. Her statements on Brexit and human rights are appalling, and I hope she will resign or the Tories will sack her. Can't stand Boris Johnson either, though.

Anyway, lots of happy thoughts from the States!
posted by Excommunicated Cardinal at 7:38 PM on June 8 [3 favorites]


Nuttall stuffed in Skeggy!

god british cuisine is revolting
posted by indubitable at 7:39 PM on June 8 [33 favorites]


Paul Nuttall fails to take Boston & Skegness

...on the Guardian summary which has been winners and losers only so far. I guess he gets a special Fuck You.
posted by Artw at 7:40 PM on June 8 [2 favorites]


In terms of ironies and making coalitions work, I saw this on Twitter:

As has been pointed out to me - Scottish Conservative MPs won't be able to vote on English laws per EVEL. Affects any majority in practice.
posted by ambrosen at 7:43 PM on June 8 [7 favorites]


UKIP got one councillor from the last council election, across the whole of the UK, now they have got shat on in the GE. Surely this is the last time we should be hearing from these sad cases?
posted by biffa at 7:43 PM on June 8 [2 favorites]


Sky News reporting a large swing in Greater Titting. English MeFites: no innuendo or entendres please, as it'll just confuse and perplex our American MeFite friends more.
posted by Wordshore at 7:43 PM on June 8 [6 favorites]


UKIP got one councillor from the last council election, across the whole of the UK, now they have got shat on in the GE. Surely this is the last time we should be hearing from these sad cases?

We'll need wall to wall TV coverage of them to know for sure!
posted by Artw at 7:46 PM on June 8 [3 favorites]


And Labour takes Canterbury, on the strength of a high youth turnout, unseating a veteran Tory MP who has held it since 1987.
posted by acb at 7:46 PM on June 8 [6 favorites]


Sky News reporting a large swing in Greater Titting. English MeFites: no innuendo or entendres please, as it'll just confuse and perplex our American MeFite friends more.

Sure. I'm busy giving my pussy a bath anyway.
posted by Talez at 7:47 PM on June 8 [10 favorites]


Oo-er missus!
posted by Artw at 7:48 PM on June 8 [3 favorites]


Canterbury has been Tory since 1918. Nearly 100 years...!
posted by MattWPBS at 7:48 PM on June 8


A lot of the rural Tory safe seats wont declare until tomorrow.

One of my colleagues is helping at the count for West Cornwall and he has been told they need him till about 10am. The count is for three seats, currently all tory and with varying degrees of possibility for being lost. St Ives really could go either way, the others are long shots.
posted by biffa at 7:49 PM on June 8


Better luck next time, Lord Buckethead.
posted by Artw at 7:50 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


Woke up briefly to find my night made - not just Shipley, but my pro-EU MP Ruth Cadbury in Brentford and Isleworth went from a tiny 500 vote majority to over 12,000.
posted by edd at 7:50 PM on June 8 [2 favorites]


Hastings on BBC - recount going on, it's a few hundred votes in it. Hour or two for a result. I'm off to bed.

Don't fuck it up Scotland.
posted by MattWPBS at 7:51 PM on June 8


And the new Canterbury MP is a product of the Jo Cox Women in Leadership Programme (happy tears)
posted by tractorfeed at 7:51 PM on June 8 [26 favorites]


And Labour takes Canterbury

Whilst simultaneously losing Middlesborough South. What the fuck is going on?
posted by Talez at 7:51 PM on June 8


What I'm finding really interesting, putting the UK results in context of recent elections is how voters seem to be voting in a way, surprisingly well-calibrated to the idiosyncrasies of their jurisdiction, to give a middle finger to the political class.

The UK results so far seem designed to ensure almost no politician has a mandate to get anything done. Last month, here in Canada, the election in British Columbia delivered a virtual tie between the incumbents and the biggest challenger, giving the Green Party the balance of power with their 2 seats. And obviously there's the US somehow electing Trump while giving his opponent a significant popular vote victory (though obviously no gridlock there due to political gerrymandering and blatant vote suppression giving the GOP the run of the federal government). Also France avoided this due to their run-off system essentially forcing a choice.

This is of course anecdotal and imperfect analysis. It's just a vibe I keep picking up lately. People are sick of the whole enterprise.
posted by dry white toast at 7:53 PM on June 8 [2 favorites]


biffa: "St Ives really could go either way, the others are long shots."

Depends how the seven wives vote.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:55 PM on June 8 [7 favorites]


Canterbury has been Tory since 1918.

More I feel you include the time before its boundaries changed. In that case it's been Tory since the 1840s.
posted by Catseye at 7:55 PM on June 8


Well, the campaign I volunteered for (George Turner, LibDem in Vauxhall) seems to have failed. But if the Tories lose their majority, I'll happily take the loss.

(Every Labour campaigner I talked to basically said "Yeah, we don't like Kate Hoey either. But vote for her anyway.")
posted by Pallas Athena at 7:55 PM on June 8 [4 favorites]


Sad to hear that Kate Hoey (an anti-EU Labour MP) has been returned; I knew one person who joined the Lib Dems to campaign against her because of Brexit. The Lib Dems came a distant second.
posted by acb at 7:56 PM on June 8 [4 favorites]




Diane Abbott, after being the brunt of endless racist, sexist abuse during the campaign, has been returned with a resounding, increased majority, with 75% of the vote in her constituency.
posted by penguin pie at 7:56 PM on June 8 [40 favorites]


Wordshore: English MeFites: no innuendo or entendres please, as it'll just confuse and perplex our American MeFite friends more.

American coverage of English elections has to be regularly bleeped out. Cumnock just went for the Conservatives, I see.
posted by clawsoon at 7:59 PM on June 8 [2 favorites]


no innuendo or entendres please, as it'll just confuse and perplex our American MeFite friends more.

nooooo, we got at least one fart joke out of Tooting, I'd like to see where people go with this
posted by indubitable at 7:59 PM on June 8 [4 favorites]


I'd like to see where people go

Cheeky innit
posted by Potomac Avenue at 8:00 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


Also, the British commentariat had a field day with “Trump”, so turnabout is fair play.
posted by acb at 8:01 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]



no innuendo or entendres please, as it'll just confuse and perplex our American MeFite friends more.


Am I too late for the Ed Balls portion of the thread?
posted by dry white toast at 8:01 PM on June 8 [2 favorites]


Cumnock's in Scotland, clawsoon. Apology needed
posted by scruss at 8:03 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


SDLP has been wiped out in Northern Ireland. UUP gone. Sinn Fein pick up 2, DUP pick up 2.
posted by Talez at 8:03 PM on June 8


Yeah Ed Balls Day is in April
posted by tractorfeed at 8:03 PM on June 8


Yeah, the abuse heaped on Diane Abbott is beyond disgusting. Very satisfying to see Hackney return her so overwhelmingly.
posted by skybluepink at 8:04 PM on June 8 [5 favorites]


I was planning on going to bed when the conservatives went ahead on the declared seats yet it's 4 in the morning and somehow that still hasn't happened.
posted by dng at 8:05 PM on June 8


One thing I've always loved about Edinburgh's election night backdrop is that it's in the same font as the Vic Reeves Big Night Out backdrop.

First time I noticed it was about 6am at a previous election when I was a reporter chasing candidates around the count for quotes and did a proper double take.
posted by penguin pie at 8:06 PM on June 8 [5 favorites]


Glad to see Lincolns' gone Labour and Karl 'Electoral Commission and police investigation' McCartney is out
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 8:06 PM on June 8


So assuming May is history but the Tories manage to form some sort of government who is the odds on favorite to become PM? BoJo seems like the obvious choice but even he's got to realize that anyone who replaces May is going to be merely warming a seat because a slight majority and Brexit is going to be a disaster for continued political prospects. Plus BoJo is hardly a voice of stability. Any chance that the Tories settle on some placeholder who basically is just there in the short term to handle negotiations with the EU and wait until the inevitable next election?
posted by vuron at 8:07 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


They'll have to rustle someone up from the Lords at this rate.
posted by dng at 8:08 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


I was planning on going to bed when the conservatives went ahead on the declared seats yet it's 4 in the morning and somehow that still hasn't happened.

Bah, now it has. Goodnight
posted by dng at 8:11 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


scruss: Cumnock's in Scotland, clawsoon. Apology needed

My sincerest apologies.
posted by clawsoon at 8:12 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


@mynameiscal

I have won
The votes
That were in your
Election

And which
You wanted
To use
As your mandate

Forgive me
They were
So strong
And so stable
posted by lalex at 8:14 PM on June 8 [35 favorites]


Neophyte question from a foreigner: I'm following The Guardian's live results tracker, and as the seats fill in, the non-Conservative share of seats keeps getting closer to the majority line. I'm seeing predictions in the range of 318-320 for the Cons, but they would have to take a significant portion of the constituencies that haven't been called yet to even get to that.

Is that likely? Are the constituencies that haven't reported yet mostly safe for the Cons?

Sorry to intrude in your digestion of the results!
posted by dry white toast at 8:15 PM on June 8


fearfulsymmetry has you covered, dry white toast.
posted by clawsoon at 8:17 PM on June 8


Is that likely? Are the constituencies that haven't reported yet mostly safe for the Cons?

As time goes on the seats will become more and more safe Tory ones. Thought there's a fair number in the SW not declared some of those might switch to Lib Dem.
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 8:18 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


Big Eck's gone!
posted by penguin pie at 8:20 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


Alex Salmond just lost his seat too.
posted by zachlipton at 8:20 PM on June 8


Tories would lose mandate to leave EU single market if they lose majority, suggests Brexit Secretary

Huh. So, considering that May was actually anti-Brexit prior to the referendum, do you think it's possible that this was her long game all along? Run a shitty campaign, lose the election and then claim that it's the people's will that the UK stays in the single market? Which is what she wanted in the first place?
posted by sour cream at 8:21 PM on June 8 [2 favorites]


A long game that involves you torching your career and being widely regarded as a pillock that got a lot of your own side voted out is not a very good long game.
posted by Merus at 8:23 PM on June 8 [7 favorites]


Thought there's a fair number in the SW not declared some of those might switch to Lib Dem.

They might, but to give an idea of how tory the SW is, if you look at the BBC map currently then pretty much all the white in the SW was tory held after 2015.
posted by biffa at 8:24 PM on June 8


Amber Rudd still trying to find the magic ballot tree
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 8:25 PM on June 8 [6 favorites]


Fucking Brexiters and fucking Unionist tactical voters voting Tory - fucking fuck the lot of them. As Nye Bevan put it '"So far as I am concerned they are lower than vermin."
posted by Flitcraft at 8:25 PM on June 8 [3 favorites]


The dementia tax may have screwed up the 65+ Tory share.
posted by Talez at 8:26 PM on June 8


Davies held Shipley?

That's a downer then. Thought previously reported results were actually official so disappointed they were not.
posted by edd at 8:27 PM on June 8


uhhhhhh thanks to Twitter I've just become aware that Alex Salmond once fed a woman a popsicle.
posted by lalex at 8:28 PM on June 8 [4 favorites]


"You hit your favorite limit for the day." - first time ever.
posted by Artw at 8:28 PM on June 8 [9 favorites]


So Sinn Fein have got 7 elected MPs, assuming they don't come up with some sweet deal then only 322 MPs needed to form a government.
posted by biffa at 8:29 PM on June 8


Don't forget Theresa May when updating "We Didn't Start The Fire" for this crazy year.

🎵 Sheriff Truman, Theresa May, Bernie Bros, Covfefe 🎵
posted by guiseroom at 8:33 PM on June 8 [14 favorites]


uhhhhhh thanks to Twitter I've just become aware that Alex Salmond once fed a woman a popsicle.

Ha. And that woman looked freakishly like a former colleague of mine, a newspaper reporter in Scotland, who was intermittently plagued by people asking if that pic was her.
posted by penguin pie at 8:35 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


OK. It's 4.45am, it's broad daylight already here, and the results are hitting a slow patch. I think this is where I leave you all and go to sleep... thanks for your company on this crazy bonkers night.
posted by penguin pie at 8:45 PM on June 8 [4 favorites]


You can't go to bed before the Amber Rudd result!
posted by biffa at 8:49 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]




Aggghhh! Is this them about to declare?!
posted by penguin pie at 8:51 PM on June 8


My constituency is on its second recount. I definitely can't go to bed. Despite the telly having stopped working and the birds starting to sing.
posted by paduasoy at 8:52 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


You can't go to bed before the Amber Rudd result!

*googles how many days a person can do without sleep*
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 8:52 PM on June 8 [2 favorites]


Amber Rudd gone?! By 300 votes?!
posted by penguin pie at 8:54 PM on June 8


OH. No. I clearly need to sleep. She's back in.
posted by penguin pie at 8:54 PM on June 8


I and my ailing maths are definitely going to bed now.
posted by penguin pie at 8:54 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


Bollocks
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 8:55 PM on June 8 [5 favorites]


Me for bed also. I think they are going to scrape a majority. Thanks for letting me down again Britain.
posted by biffa at 8:56 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


I guess she found the necessary hashtags, dammit.
posted by skybluepink at 8:57 PM on June 8


rudd daammittttt
posted by lalochezia at 8:59 PM on June 8


corbyn = corwin!
posted by lalochezia at 9:05 PM on June 8 [4 favorites]


Sleepy commentators are sleepy.
posted by Yowser at 9:11 PM on June 8


Is this the beginning of a two-party system (says the commentator two seconds after I finish writing this)?
posted by Yowser at 9:12 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


I wish that Nicholas Wilson had got 1 more vote there in Hastings because his wooden spoon would have meant a difference of 1066 to Michael Phillips.
posted by unliteral at 9:15 PM on June 8 [3 favorites]


Talk online that North East Fife might be an LD victory by a single vote.
posted by zachlipton at 9:19 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


No way for a Tory majority now... interesting times.
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 9:19 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


Good night. Don't forget that anything is possible, especially socialism.
posted by Potomac Avenue at 9:20 PM on June 8 [8 favorites]


On third re-count over here. Apparently it's a "bundle ruffle" this time.
posted by paduasoy at 9:22 PM on June 8 [2 favorites]




There's no way in hell whatever comes out of this lasts a full five years, is there?
posted by Artw at 9:27 PM on June 8 [4 favorites]


"stonking" is apparently a real word now, and not just slang.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 9:29 PM on June 8


Be lucky to last five months
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 9:29 PM on June 8 [4 favorites]


When's the next budget due?
posted by Yowser at 9:31 PM on June 8


If there was another election soon and Corbyn stayed on, would even more SNP voters go back to Labour?
posted by clawsoon at 9:32 PM on June 8


Apparently at least 192 women have been elected to Parliament--a record proportion of nearly 30% of MPs! Yay!
posted by Excommunicated Cardinal at 9:34 PM on June 8 [28 favorites]


I'm so confused, and now I can't stop wildly hoping for the actual best - my brain is spinning this entire Christmas-wish-list fantasy of a progressive alliance, Corbyn as PM, staying in the single market, a functional NHS, no more ATOS assessments, no more benefit sanctions driving people to food banks, never having to hear the phrase "the Foreign Secretary, Boris Johnson" again. Realistically, though, a minority Tory government is still a far, far better outcome than I'd hoped. This is glorious.
posted by Aravis76 at 9:36 PM on June 8 [16 favorites]


BBC Commentator struggles to use calculator. Riveting.
posted by Yowser at 9:36 PM on June 8


Artw: "There's no way in hell whatever comes out of this lasts a full five years, is there?"

Seems rather like 1974, doesn't it? Which resulted in another election eight months later.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:37 PM on June 8


And on a personal level, I'm so glad that Labour took Gower back. I happened to be in Swansea on the day after the 2015 election, and I met this smug Tory who was delighted about trampling all over Labour history in Wales. Hah.
posted by Aravis76 at 9:40 PM on June 8 [4 favorites]


One extraordinary fact is there's not been a proper Tory landslide since 87, 30 years
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 9:41 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


"stonking" is apparently a real word now, and not just slang.

It's very Red Dwarf.
posted by Artw at 9:44 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


Hung parliament is official!
posted by chapps at 9:53 PM on June 8 [16 favorites]


OH BOY.
posted by Artw at 9:58 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


The Tory in my seat has won by 31 votes. If my maths is not out, it may be. I'd rather he hadn't but as when we started this thread I called it a safe seat ... that's something. That's good news. Now I'm going to bed. Thanks, everyone.
posted by paduasoy at 9:58 PM on June 8 [2 favorites]


Lotta razor thin Tory majorities all over the show. That's going to get nibbled down to nothing in no time.
posted by Artw at 10:07 PM on June 8 [2 favorites]


dup, from earlier in the thread:

Con + DUP + UUP is 324
Lab + SNP + LD + Plaid + Grn is 318.

Technically you want 1+(650/2) = 326 for an overall majority, but Sinn Fein don't take their seats, so the magic number is 323.


uhhhh is there a chance that we've ended up in the scenario where Con + DUP have a majority unless Sinn Fein takes their seats?
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 10:09 PM on June 8 [4 favorites]


There is no chance Sinn Fein will take seats in Westminster, though, although obviously I would be thrilled if they suddenly dropped everything, joined hands to sing the Internationale, and came on over. I doubt that their voters would be into it, though.
posted by Aravis76 at 10:13 PM on June 8 [3 favorites]


Lotta razor thin Tory majorities all over the show. That's going to get nibbled down to nothing in no time.

Feel like there's a lot of hope that a hung parliament or Tory minority leads to a new election soon, followed by tactical voting and targeting campaigning in those constituencies, allied to a surge to Corbyn (now that people will see him as a winner) plus a surge away from the Conservatives (who will look weak and stupid having presumably changed leaders again).
posted by Pink Frost at 10:14 PM on June 8 [7 favorites]


Yet Corbyn was accused of being friendly with Sinn Fein as part of the Tories smears against him. Wouldn't it be absolutely amazing if they had to decide whether to stand by their "friend" in his greatest hour of need right now?
posted by hazyjane at 10:15 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


It would be amazing, but it would also make me suspect that Gerry Adams had been kidnapped and replaced by a doppelgänger. Sinn Fein are not suddenly going to discover a passion for a united left government at Westminster, which trumps their objection to the whole UK project; it'd be easier to find 3 Tories willing to rebel and join a Labour government.
posted by Aravis76 at 10:23 PM on June 8 [11 favorites]


I’m back! Biggest own goal by a serving Prime Minister since the last one?
posted by pharm at 10:32 PM on June 8 [28 favorites]


It's not all terrible after all. Hopefully.
posted by flippant at 10:32 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


Sinn Fein isn't about to swear the oath to the Queen, and Parliament isn't about to drop that requirement. Totes bonks, I know, but you try talking sense to either side on this.

I have been up all night, watching the debacle unfold. I have run out of claret and, like Cassini, must soon spiral into the gas giant of oblivion. Herein my final radio'd report.

1. Theresa May Fucked It Up. Bye, Thazza.
2. Forget any electoral calculus that adds Con to DUP and arrives at a number. The Tories are now a seething mass of ferrets and lobsters in a half-submerged sack, rather than a sleek indivisible block of electoral power.
3. Jezza may well win the next election.
4. Which may come before Guy Fawkes night.

Scotland, my adopted land, is beyond my understanding.

As for Brexit: Ahahaha. Ahhahah. Hahhaa. Hahhaa. Ha Ha. DO YOU SEE NOW? DO YOU?

Good night, fellow UK Mefites. We shall overcome.
posted by Devonian at 10:43 PM on June 8 [63 favorites]


Spectator is saying May will resign @ 10am
posted by pharm at 10:46 PM on June 8 [5 favorites]


Me waking up and looking at the British electorate this morning. To be clear, Lloyd is the electorate and the moped is a hung parliament, in this analogy.
posted by Happy Dave at 11:11 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


Also I went for a run this morning as the last few seats that might have secured a Tory majority slipped away and it was a sunny morning and there was a fuzzy cygnet waddling about on the edge of the big pond I run past, as well as a heron. And I thought maybe this day isn't going to suck.
posted by Happy Dave at 11:13 PM on June 8 [12 favorites]


Ugh, Zac Goldsmith is back. That's a small dent in an otherwise good day.
posted by Aravis76 at 11:13 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


Talk online that North East Fife might be an LD victory by a single vote.

SNP held... by two votes.

The exit poll looks pretty good at this point. Assigning the remaining few seats to the incumbents, the exit poll vs actual:
Con: Exit 314 / Proj 319
Lab: 266 / 261
SNP: 34 / 35
LD: 14 / 12
posted by Homeboy Trouble at 11:17 PM on June 8


I feel sort of vindicated.
posted by Segundus at 11:28 PM on June 8 [1 favorite]


Please, Theresa May, please hum a jaunty but slightly haunting little tune immediately after resigning. Please, make this a thing. a new little tradition.
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 11:29 PM on June 8 [20 favorites]


Metafilter: a seething mass of ferrets and lobsters in a half-submerged sack
posted by crocomancer at 11:33 PM on June 8 [8 favorites]


Preston saying that May is planning to hang on & try and form a government.
posted by pharm at 11:35 PM on June 8


The lovely couple in Largoward who so graciously drove my wife and me around Scotland and the North last year were the two votes who pushed Stephen Gethins past the post in Fife North East... at least, that's what I've heard :)
posted by infinitewindow at 11:35 PM on June 8 [2 favorites]


!!!
posted by atoxyl at 11:36 PM on June 8


If May could hum a jaunty tune after losing, her campaign wouldn't have been so disastrous. I think her personal humourlessness and thin-skinned vanity did play a role in the election.
posted by Aravis76 at 11:36 PM on June 8 [2 favorites]


You know, this was so much fun, I think we should do it all again in a few months.
posted by MattWPBS at 11:53 PM on June 8 [29 favorites]


No government is better than a bad government.
posted by vbfg at 12:07 AM on June 9 [14 favorites]


From the opposite side of the globe it is tremendous to see the surge in support for a genuinely leftist platform and leader, even if didn't result in victory. I hope it emboldens progressives everywhere to campaign on positive platforms for justice and equality, and quietens the voices that say we have to move to the right to be electable.

There is a lot of schadenfreude in seeing the conservatives authors of their own miseries, but it is worth remembering that an extremist government without a mandate will be forced to move to the reasonable centre to find support, making it harder to dislodge them in future, as they will appear more benign.

The future looks a little brighter!
posted by bystander at 12:22 AM on June 9 [14 favorites]


This was in a seat that gave Conservative a 45 seat majority and returned it to him over the Lib Dem that won it in a by-election. To be clear I suspect incompetence somewhere and not malice, but there's a very clear reminder that making sure you are properly registered and being paranoid about the whole thing is probably a very sensible idea that could make all the difference. Your vote really could count.
posted by edd at 12:24 AM on June 9 [1 favorite]


Corey Robin:
1. Under a left leadership, Labour denied the Tories a majority, forcing a hung Parliament.
2. So far, 192 women have been elected to Parliament. The most ever.
3. Turnout of young voters was way up, and Labour won them. According to one exit poll, by 46%.
3. Corbyn secured Labour's greatest increase in its vote share since Clement Atlee in 1945. Despite two recent terrorist attacks.
4. Corbyn is one of the most progressive voices on Palestine in Europe.
5. Wilders lost, Le Pen lost, the Tories lost their majority in Parliament, and, well, you've heard me on the question of Trump. So maybe, just maybe, the rightward march is not entirely invincible?
6. Good night.
posted by Joseph Gurl at 12:27 AM on June 9 [47 favorites]


Aye, and the importance of tactical voting in some areas. Tory vote share stayed the same, just Labour supporters who didn't do a tactical who gave him the seat.
posted by MattWPBS at 12:29 AM on June 9 [1 favorite]


Conservative % of the vote was up 5.5% since 2015, Labour was up 9.5%.

I think what we're seeing is UKIP's collapse (LibDems, Greens and SNP didn't do too great, either), with their supporters being redistributed between Red and Blue.

Milliband would have walked this - pitted against a remarkably unattractive PM, and not having to start from 20 points behind. Of course, if Milliband was leader of the opposition we would have never seen a snap election in the first place. So...
posted by Leon at 12:31 AM on June 9 [5 favorites]


In the longer view this was not a great Labour performance. But in context it's a huge success for Corbyn; consolidating his de-Blairification of the party and completely dispelling the widely accepted idea that a rift had opened up between Labour members and Labour voters.

Everyone else loses except the Eurocrats, who now scent blood. The chances of a poor Brexit deal or none at all have greatly increased as more time slips away. A small chance of staying in on really humiliating and costly terms opens up.

Here's a horribly plausible scenario; May replaced by Boris, further election, Tory majority.
posted by Segundus at 12:42 AM on June 9 [3 favorites]


Possible future PM Boris Johnson, whose recent achievements include writing a very fine acknowledgements page to a book about Churchill.
posted by Sonny Jim at 12:48 AM on June 9 [2 favorites]


So if May says she won't resign and doesn't (unlike how she wasn't going to call a snap election), can her party still oust her?
posted by harujion at 12:48 AM on June 9


The EU would much prefer an EEA style Brexit deal, because the "Eurocrats" are true believers in providing the best quality of life for everyone through open trade and open borders. And they want to spend their time being productive, not vindictive. So an EEA deal is much less work, then they can get on with other things.
posted by ambrosen at 12:51 AM on June 9 [8 favorites]


Newcastle-under-Lyme, where 100-odd students were refused their vote due to electoral role fuck up and went back to try again, was won for Labour BY THIRTY VOTES
posted by EndsOfInvention at 12:53 AM on June 9 [44 favorites]


Labour votes, historically:

1997: 13,518,167 (43.2% of vote)
2001: 10,724,953 (40.7%)
2005: 9,567,589(35.2%)
2010: 8,606,518(29.0%)
2015: 9,347,326 (30.4%)
2017 (with four seats left to be called): 12,824,729 (40.08%)

It's not actually 'not a great Labour performance' by the actual vote numbers - the level of turnout and the gain in number of votes is pretty amazing. Admittedly in the Blair landslide year those votes were dispersed more helpfully across seats but I don't think (? I wasn't very politically aware in 1997 because I was 12 so may be wrong) Blair was working with quite the same level of opprobrium from his own party or the media.

Historical info from UK Political Info, current vote stats from Guardian results page as of right now.
posted by theseldomseenkid at 12:54 AM on June 9 [5 favorites]


Newcastle-on-Lyme was the scene of much drama yesterday when hundreds of newly-registered students were turned away at polling stations; they persisted and eventually got to vote later in the day, and Labour has won the seat by 30 votes.

The big story of this election has been the return of young voters, which is fantastic news. Now all the parties will have to start paying attention to them again. Seems that having your future stolen in an unnecessary referendum has a galvanising effect.
posted by rory at 12:58 AM on June 9 [33 favorites]


Leon: I think what we're seeing is UKIP's collapse (LibDems, Greens and SNP didn't do too great, either), with their supporters being redistributed between Red and Blue.... Milliband would have walked this

This is basically the result that was being predicted in 2015, for me it just shows that Cameron's gamble on the EU Referendum is what won it for him. I still believe that he didn't expect to get the majority and therefore wouldn't have run the referendum.

To whoever is running this simulation - Can we just cancel the last two years and restore from that point in 2015?
posted by toamouse at 12:58 AM on June 9 [4 favorites]


If May doesn't go, we can take to the streets until she does. I think that's probably critical for sending a message about what we want until things stabilise.
posted by ambrosen at 12:58 AM on June 9 [1 favorite]


Blair did have internal trouble but it was years before the election, and he was the third leader in a row that was fighting essentially that same battle.
posted by vbfg at 1:00 AM on June 9


To get away with staying, May will have to convince the DUP, her party colleagues and Buckingham Palace. Which is a tall order as of this morning. But I guess her inmediate threat - if going with dignity is not for her- would be a no confidence vote sufficient to trigger a re- election under the terms of the Fixed Terms Parliament act.
posted by rongorongo at 1:08 AM on June 9


To get away with staying, May will have to convince the DUP
DUP leader Arlene Foster has hinted she expects May to stand down.

“It will be difficult for her to survive given that she was presumed at the start of the campaign, which seems an awfully long time ago, to come back with maybe a hundred, maybe more, in terms of her majority,” she told BBC Radio Ulster.

(source)
posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 1:16 AM on June 9 [1 favorite]


I think we're talking about an autumn election, with more tactical voting based on the results this time.
posted by MattWPBS at 1:18 AM on June 9


May will have to convince the DUP

The Tories have been directly responsible for putting the Good Friday agreement and therefore the future of Northern Ireland within the UK at risk, by calling the EU referendum and by doubling down on a hard Brexit. Even if the DUP are natural Tory allies, that must complicate the negotiations.
posted by rory at 1:20 AM on June 9 [15 favorites]


It’s fair to say that the Corbyn Labour party has done well in terms of vote share, but that is against a background of high turnout for both major parties: the Conservatives have also managed a very strong turnout, with a higher share of the vote than Labour.

You could argue that a majority of SNP votes are "Labourish" but allocating Labour 2/3 of the SNP vote still puts them neck & neck. Plus next time around the boundary commission changes will be in place, so Labour will (probably) have a higher hill to climb to get to a majority. It’s going to be tricky.

Meanwhile my parents are very pleased with their local results: a target seat for the Cons stayed Lab with an increased majority of 10k. Apparently the local Con campaign was woeful: pissed of the local activists by faffing about before dumping a London candidate on them that none of them liked on top of the disaster of the national campaign.

Parental prediction: Corbyn will probably resign sometime during this parliament to make way for a successor, who will end up being someone from the right of the party elected on the much stronger left platform that Corbyn has shown is electable. Yvette Cooper a likely candidate.

But, given that we might have another GE inside six months, who knows?

(Cue cries of “Oh no! Not another one...” in a Bristolian accent.)
posted by pharm at 1:28 AM on June 9


Owen Jones on the DUP in 2015: "The idea of these bigoted throwbacks to several centuries ago holding the balance of power should surely frighten even moderate Tories, let alone the rest of us."
posted by rory at 1:40 AM on June 9 [6 favorites]


Corbyn will probably resign sometime during this parliament to make way for a successor, who will end up being someone from the right of the party elected on the much stronger left platform that Corbyn has shown is electable.

From your mouth....
posted by Leon at 1:46 AM on June 9


Oh we're going to have some fun times ahead with public grovelling before the DUP. There is real bad feeling over how Brexit has been managed and NI being essentially ignored by all parties and the mainstream UK media. Now they conceivably have the Conservative and Unionist Party (hahaha) by the short and curlies, even if the Tories can get their act together.

But also, yes, the DUP are kind of nuts in a different sort of way to other parties, as Owen Jones said. This characterisation is unfair... but not by much.
posted by ocular shenanigans at 1:52 AM on June 9 [2 favorites]


For those feeling confused about Scotland's swing to the Tories: it was always unlikely that the SNP could hold its 2015 win of 97% of Scottish seats. Under FPTP, the Tories can beat a divided anti-Tory vote, and so they have done in a dozen seats. But they're still under-represented relative to their vote share in Scotland—and Labour even more so—just as they were in 2015. As disappointing as it is to think that Scotland's Tory gains could help prop up a Tory minority government, it isn't some sort of Scottish betrayal of progressive Britain; the Scottish vote remains 70%+ anti-Tory.
posted by rory at 1:52 AM on June 9 [6 favorites]


Leon: ?
posted by pharm at 1:58 AM on June 9


Help me out here. If all parties tell May to take a running jump then am I right in thinking that the Tories will just form a minority government?

In other words, for all the celebration, there isn't actually a chance of Labour getting into power since even a coalition of them, Lib Dems and SNP will be 9 seats less than the Tories and nowhere near the 326 seats needed for a majority.

Or have I missed something?
posted by mr_silver at 2:04 AM on June 9


So happy about Brighton right now. Green party killing it in Brighton Pavilion, Hove still solidly Labour, and Greens dropping out in Brighton Kemptown to help Labour did the business. 💚💚💚💚💚
posted by EndsOfInvention at 2:05 AM on June 9 [11 favorites]


If all parties tell May to take a running jump then am I right in thinking that the Tories will just form a minority government?

In the very unlikely event that the DUP rejects the Tories' coalition outreach (and refuses a confidence and supply arrangement), then sure, the Tories could try to form a minority govt. This would be very unstable and prone to falling apart as soon as there's any kind of decisive vote, though, and it's not the position that the Tories want to be in with Brexit negotiations on the horizon. We'd be looking at another election by the autumn.

As it is, with the DUP likely to fall in line, maybe they can hold on till next spring. But they'll have to give up something to persuade the DUP, and whatever they give up would likely antagonise Tory backbenchers.
posted by littlegreen at 2:10 AM on June 9 [2 favorites]


Pharm: "From your mouth to God's ear". I think it's an old Yiddish saying.
posted by Leon at 2:11 AM on June 9 [1 favorite]


It's really interesting that they centered the campaign so heavily around Theresa May personally, especially when (according to what they've been discussing on BBC just now) she doesn't have much of a personal core of MPs.
posted by threetwentytwo at 2:19 AM on June 9


That’s probably Lynton Crosby’s fault.
posted by pharm at 2:20 AM on June 9 [2 favorites]


The DUP are awful and are going to relish the chance to subject more people to that awfulness. If you have any spare cash looking for a worthy home then the Abortion Support Network could do with some help.
posted by Catseye at 2:21 AM on June 9 [9 favorites]




Is there any way this can be used as leverage to get a cross-party team to negotiate with Europe, hopefully get some sane people in the room?
posted by Grangousier at 2:35 AM on June 9


I'm going to pour cold water here and say that I think things are worse than before. The DUP are even more regressive than the Tories. And now they are the coalition partners.


Theresa May has struck a deal with the Democratic Unionists that will allow her to form a government, sources have confirmed.
The prime minister is expected to see the Queen at 1230pm to confirm that a deal is in place.
It follows extensive talks with the DUP late into the night. Party figures say they have been driven on this morning by their dismay at the possibility of Jeremy Corbyn becoming prime minister.
DUP figures insist that their relationship with May’s team has been close since she became prime minister 11 months ago.
A DUP source said: “We want there to be a government. We have worked well with May. The alternative is intolerable.
“For as long as Corbyn leads Labour, we will ensure there’s a Tory PM.”


I'm sorry. It is going to get worse now.
posted by vacapinta at 2:37 AM on June 9 [11 favorites]


Paul Nuttall has quit as leader of UKIP
Nuttall claims Ukip could be more popular than it has ever been in 18 months, but not with him as leader. “A new era must begin with a new leader,” he said.
So bets on new leader: Farage again?
posted by EndsOfInvention at 2:44 AM on June 9 [3 favorites]


After waking to such hopeful news this morning of Tory losses, the awful realisation dawns that they will be governing with the support of a far-right party: if anything, a worse outcome than an outright Tory victory. "Sure, you can have your Dementia Tax and human rights restrictions, as long as we get to keep our homophobia and anti-abortionism."

Maybe we'll get a softer Brexit out of it, but who knows? The DUP heartland was the pro-Leave part of Northern Ireland.
posted by rory at 2:48 AM on June 9 [2 favorites]


Has he quit or is he just saying he has?
posted by vbfg at 2:49 AM on June 9 [3 favorites]


"With immediate effect"
posted by PenDevil at 2:50 AM on June 9


Has he quit or is he just saying he has?

Good question. Sometimes you quit only to find they haven't let you quit and you're still leader. Getting out of UKIP is a complicated business.
posted by EndsOfInvention at 2:54 AM on June 9 [5 favorites]


yeah, but I'm sure Nuttall will manage to get out. He once escaped from Alcatraz you know.
posted by Catseye at 2:56 AM on June 9 [9 favorites]


SNP hold Fife North East by 2 votes. There were 3 recounts. LibDems (in 2nd place) want a fourth.
posted by EndsOfInvention at 3:06 AM on June 9 [2 favorites]


I've been refraining from asking questions in here, in favour of googling, because I'm a newcomer to the UK who can't vote yet and maybe lacks baseline understanding. But I'm confused on a particular point and maybe someone can elaborate on vacapinta's and rory's pessimism upthread.

Some sort of Tory/DUP deal is in the offing. Is a recurring "we'll help you implement your Quite Shit Stuff but you have to adopt some of our Abjectly Terrible Stuff in return" scenario likely, and in what new ways is this most worrisome compared to the situation, say, yesterday?
posted by busted_crayons at 3:17 AM on June 9 [1 favorite]






The DUP are very regressive when it comes to things like LBGTQ rights & abortion. However, they will probably push for that stuff in NI only, as there's no way you'll get it applied to the rest of the UK (I hope).

On the positive side, the DUP is also not going to be keen on a hard NI/Irish border, so they may trade support for some kind of deal on that front instead.

Hard to say which way they'll jump - I don't know anything about internal DUP politics.
posted by pharm at 3:23 AM on June 9 [4 favorites]


is a recurring "we'll help you implement your Quite Shit Stuff but you have to adopt some of our Abjectly Terrible Stuff in return" scenario likely

Yes. A 'confidence and supply' agreement rather than a formal coalition - the DUP wouldn't Ben part of government but would support the government where it needs a majority vote to function.

in what new ways is this most worrisome compared to the situation, say, yesterday?

Unclear. The DUP are batshit crazy climate change denying anti-choice homophobes, though.
posted by Catseye at 3:24 AM on June 9 [5 favorites]


Bloody hell. I suppose at least I can go back to being depressed about everything again now, after suffering a few hours of mild notdespair late last night.
posted by dng at 3:32 AM on June 9 [4 favorites]


I'm not ready to rend my garments yet, because I have strong doubts about the long-term stability of any agreements she comes to with the DUP headbangers.
posted by skybluepink at 3:32 AM on June 9 [11 favorites]


Even in partnership with the DUP, Tories have a 1 seat majority (possibly 2 depending how Kensington goes) which is less than they had pre-election - just because they have an agreement with the DUP and may have to draft policy accordingly doesn't mean it'll actually get passed with such a wafer-thin majority, particularly if there's not going to be a formal coalition. I'm not saying the DUP aren't bad because they're obviously horrendous, but I don't quite understand the jump to 'this is worse than it was before'.
posted by theseldomseenkid at 3:33 AM on June 9 [20 favorites]


in what new ways is this most worrisome compared to the situation, say, yesterday?

If the Tories had won a narrow majority in their own right, we would have had a chastened government knowing that they had to soften their stance on various fronts in order to cling onto power. But a minority Tory government will be tempted to move to the right to ensure DUP support. May is the last person you want to dangle that temptation in front of, given her previous form as Home Secretary and Born-Again Hard Brexiter.

The hope now is that even a Tory + DUP majority will be so fragile that a by-election could knock it sideways. But any by-election could be some way off.

Despite my rational political scientist take above on the 12 Tory gains in Scotland, I do so wish they hadn't happened...
posted by rory at 3:33 AM on June 9 [4 favorites]


So the Tories will still be forming a government of sorts, but comparing this result to what looked likely at the time May called this election still leaves me feeling intensely relieved, so I'll allow it.

Make no mistake by the way that the knives will be out for May within her own party. Fully expecting a re-run round about October.
posted by walrus at 3:34 AM on June 9 [4 favorites]


Isn't Craig McKinlay still under investigation for election fraud from 2015? A by-election might not be that far away.
posted by theseldomseenkid at 3:37 AM on June 9 [3 favorites]


So with the loss of the SNP seats I guess a 2nd independence referendum is not going to happen?
posted by PenDevil at 3:43 AM on June 9


So with the loss of the SNP seats I guess a 2nd independence referendum is not going to happen?

It never was within this parliament and I feel like that's probably why the Scots electorate felt able to make this more about Westminster than Scottish nationalism.
posted by walrus at 3:47 AM on June 9 [1 favorite]


Relax, the CONDUP party won't be able to push any batshit crazy things through with a single seat majority.

I give it 6 months before they lose a 2/3 no-confidence vote.
Simply because they're too stupid to avoid it.
These are the people who threw away a double digit poll lead in 6 weeks.
posted by fullerine at 3:48 AM on June 9 [8 favorites]


It never was within this parliament and I feel like that's probably why the Scots electorate felt able to make this more about Westminster than Scottish nationalism.

The SNP argued that the Scottish Parliment election gave them the mandate for it and it was not up for debate this time round. The other parties in Scotland disagreed and the main thing I've seen from my friends at home has been regarding indyref2, so it was about Scottish nationalism for a decent % of the electorate.
posted by toamouse at 3:51 AM on June 9 [2 favorites]


Technically they have more than a single-seat majority. Tories + DUP (discounting Kensington and the Speaker) = 327, and while the "official" majority line is 326, Sinn Fein don't take their seats (and have confirmed that they will continue this practice). So the number required for a "real" majority is 322, giving the Tories a 5-seat majority. It's still unstable and liable to be toppled by Brexit negotiations, but it's not entirely unworkable.
posted by littlegreen at 3:55 AM on June 9 [4 favorites]


The SNP argued that the Scottish Parliment election gave them the mandate for it and it was not up for debate this time round. The other parties in Scotland disagreed and the main thing I've seen from my friends at home has been regarding indyref2, so it was about Scottish nationalism for a decent % of the electorate.

Interesting, thanks. There was never the slightest, most miniscule chance of it pre-Brexit however.
posted by walrus at 3:55 AM on June 9 [1 favorite]


I'm not ready to rend my garments yet, because I have strong doubts about the long-term stability of any agreements she comes to with the DUP headbangers.
It is also a little ironic that the Conservative's "English Votes for English Laws" legislation - will mean that neither their 13 MPs in Scotland nor their DUP pals will be able to vote on England-only legislation.
posted by rongorongo at 4:00 AM on June 9 [9 favorites]


the main thing I've seen from my friends at home has been regarding indyref2, so it was about Scottish nationalism for a decent % of the electorate.

The thing I've seen from people is that Brexit was a bigger deal for them than Indyref2 - I know several people in the North East who work within fishing & oil, and they wanted reassurance re. Brexit, so went Tory.

Takeaway: there is not one issue at play here; people are complex and vote for many different reasons.
posted by kariebookish at 4:00 AM on June 9 [2 favorites]


Ruth Cadbury in Brentford and Isleworth went from a tiny 500 vote majority to over 12,000.

I too was delighted to see that. I'm exhausted from traipsing all through the borough getting out the vote. There were posters and signs all over, and a huge group of volunteers, but even then I thought that it might all still be a bubble.

I went to bed without reading or checking anything, and asked my wife not to tell me the result.
She really really wanted to though, So I thought that was probably a good sign, and it was!
I'm only just now catching up on the rest of the country.

I did take great pleasure in marking yesterdays todo list task "Overthrow the government" as done.
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 4:02 AM on June 9 [27 favorites]


Owen Jones on the DUP in 2015: "The idea of these bigoted throwbacks to several centuries ago holding the balance of power should surely frighten even moderate Tories, let alone the rest of us."

See - it's the result we were expecting in 2015. Reboot please!
posted by toamouse at 4:02 AM on June 9


It is also a little ironic that the Conservative's "English Votes for English Laws" legislation - will mean that neither their 13 MPs in Scotland nor their DUP pals will be able to vote on England-only legislation.

Ooo, you're so right! Hope! Hope flutters again! Quick, grab the butterfly net before it gets away!
posted by rory at 4:08 AM on June 9 [6 favorites]


I'm not sure that the DUP are going to turn out as bad as we might have feared. They are undoubtedly total and utter bawbags, but they appear to have shot their bolt with regards to coalition/confidence negotiations, They've been quoted as saying “We want there to be a government. We have worked well with May. The alternative is intolerable. For as long as Corbyn leads Labour, we will ensure there’s a Tory PM.” That appears to limit their opportunities to push their bawbaggery onto the country at large, as the Tories know they'll back down when push comes to shove.
However, it may mean that they get an even freer hand in NI, which is unlikely to work out well there.
posted by Jakey at 4:10 AM on June 9 [3 favorites]


Corbyn got the biggest increase of the Labour vote since Attllee in 1945
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 4:10 AM on June 9 [7 favorites]


Maybe we'll get a softer Brexit out of it, but who knows? The DUP heartland was the pro-Leave part of Northern Ireland.

The DUP are officially pro-Brexit, and I've seen a lot of reports floating round that one condition they have for providing confidence and supply to the Tories is a guarantee of no special status for Northern Ireland re: Brexit.
posted by Dysk at 4:11 AM on June 9 [1 favorite]


Corbyn got the biggest increase of the Labour vote since Attllee in 1945

Rather happy to be eating my words on Corbyn's electability today.
posted by walrus at 4:12 AM on June 9 [10 favorites]


Also EVEL will not be a problem, as the Tories actually have a healthy majority in England.
posted by Jakey at 4:12 AM on June 9 [2 favorites]


The problem with stitched together unofficial coalitions is that every time the minority government needs the votes to get something passed they must horse trade with minor parties. And that could mean ongoing concessions to the DUP, giving them a blank chequebook to fill with small wins as long as the government lasts.
Seeing what their platform is about, I am a bit worried for the sensible people in NI.

The current Australian conservatives have to hand a fillip off to our local micro party whenever they need something done, who are similarly regionally focussed - leading to sweetheart deals for that state.
posted by bystander at 4:13 AM on June 9 [1 favorite]


I'd imagine that it'll work for a while, the the DUP will start asking for... things, and the Torys that are feeling a little vulnerable will blink. The House of Lords will feel emboldened to block anything too terrible and get people saying 'hurrah for the House of Lords' for the first time in their lives, and the entire government will go into a death spiral when it's clear they blew their legitimacy and the electorate decides they want this over with.

Corbyn didn't win, but he decisively answered his many, many critics, much of whom are now crowing over a Labour that can win seats (it being far more desirable to criticise a person than a broken system, because most critics would rather eventually use that broken system for their own ends). You don't junk a leader that surged 20 points in 6 weeks and got the Youths to actually turn up, and it's going to be a very different story next election, assuming Corbyn doesn't fuck it up, or put his party colleagues off-side now that they owe him.
posted by Merus at 4:16 AM on June 9 [11 favorites]


Paul Nuttall has deleted his Twitter account.
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 4:17 AM on June 9 [12 favorites]


I am as disgusted by the DUP as anyone with a soul, but Owen Jones's appeal to moderate Tories should be understood not as a prognostication of doom, but as an attempt to put pressure on the ability of the Tories to govern as a minority party with a razor thin functional majority. The reality is that half a dozen Tories can hold the entire thing to ransom, and nothing collapses faster than whipping discipline when power passes from the leadership to the backbench, as it has here.

Anyone telling you that things are worse than they were yesterday is just plain wrong, in my view.
posted by howfar at 4:18 AM on June 9 [24 favorites]


Now that NI is suddenly at the center of UK politics, can someone explain what kind of solution could possibly exist for Brexit and the border? If the Tories are serious about limiting free movement between the UK and the EU, then there has to be a hard border somewhere, either between the Republic and NI or between NI and the rest of the UK. I can't understand how that could work in the real world, and it gets even harder with the DUP's "no special status" requirement.
posted by fuzz at 4:27 AM on June 9 [4 favorites]


Anyone telling you that things are worse than they were yesterday is just plain wrong, in my view.

Or they could be northern Irish, or concerned about how things are now in northern Ireland, not how things are now in England.
posted by Dysk at 4:28 AM on June 9 [6 favorites]


Anyone telling you that things are worse than they were yesterday is just plain wrong, in my view.

Better things:
Labour vote has surged
Youth vote is way up
Tory government is unstable and will have trouble holding on
Theresa May has no personal mandate whatsoever
Several Tory ministers lost their seats
Many good progressive candidates didn't
Prospects for next election in 2022 are good

Worse things:
It isn't 2022 yet
Tories will still be the actual government with the actual power to do Tory things
A far-right minority party will have a direct influence on government, rather than the indirect influence other far-right parties have had before now
Brexit negotiations will be even more of a dog's breakfast
God help us, Boris Johnson might become prime minister
Or Michael Gove might
Or Iain Duncan-Smith might

Schroedinger's things:
Brexit
posted by rory at 4:29 AM on June 9 [16 favorites]


A half dozen Tories catch a cold at their next pig [doing nice things to] event and a no-confidence vote happens immediately. Westminster parliaments are pretty exciting compared to the American system.
posted by Space Coyote at 4:29 AM on June 9 [1 favorite]


There is also, potentially the outcome of (supposedly) a couple of criminal investigations to come.
McKinley and May (though I'm sceptical in the extreme of that going anywhere).
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 4:38 AM on June 9 [1 favorite]


It isn't 2022 yet
It's cool, because if this government makes it to 2022 then the massive amounts of crack everyone was smoking would have made the time fly by.
posted by fullerine at 4:49 AM on June 9 [13 favorites]


Now that NI is suddenly at the center of UK politics, can someone explain what kind of solution could possibly exist for Brexit and the border?

The EEA solution, whereby the country as a whole stays in the single market and has no hard border with the EU. I gather this is what the DUP want - no special status for NI, but no exit from the single market for the UK.
posted by Aravis76 at 4:52 AM on June 9 [5 favorites]


MAY: Ma'am.
THE QUEEN: Sooooo how did it go? *snicker* Did you *fit of the giggles*
MAY: Ma'am. I...
THE QUEEN: "...didn't increase my majority?" *roars*
MAY: Ma'am I request...
THE QUEEN: God. Sorry. Go on. I'll be serious.
MAY: Ma'am I request permission to...
THE QUEEN: *points and laughs*
MAY: Ma'am, please. I request permission to form a govern...
THE QUEEN: bellows with laughter* Oh God. *sniff* Oh God. Sorry. Sorry. I'm trying. I just haven't had this much fun since Eden.
posted by garius at 4:56 AM on June 9 [60 favorites]


Now that NI is suddenly at the center of UK politics, can someone explain what kind of solution could possibly exist for Brexit and the border? If the Tories are serious about limiting free movement between the UK and the EU, then there has to be a hard border somewhere, either between the Republic and NI or between NI and the rest of the UK. I can't understand how that could work in the real world, and it gets even harder with the DUP's "no special status" requirement.

My (possibly oversimplified) understanding of this is that the current state is:
1. The UK and Ireland are not part of the common EU travel area (Schengen Zone)
2. The UK and Ireland currently have their own common travel area

Therefore the 'border' is between the two travel zones, not specifically between the UK and the EU.

Depending on the agreements on travel between the UK and the EU the situation could remain the same with passport checks (and stamps if the border is considered to be 'hard') on entry to either the UK or Ireland from the rest of the EU and the world but not on travelling between them.
posted by toamouse at 5:00 AM on June 9 [2 favorites]


Garius - had to share that Queen/May conversation on Facebook. :)
posted by MattWPBS at 5:07 AM on June 9


The kids are alright.

@DavidLammy
72% turnout for 18-25 year olds. Big up yourselves 👊👏 #GE2017

@JStein_Vox
In 2015, Miliband won the youth vote by 15 points.
In 2016, Clinton won it by 18 points.
Tonight's exit poll: Corbyn won it by 44 points
posted by chris24 at 5:09 AM on June 9 [38 favorites]


The youth vote also surged in Canada's last election, and went strongly left (62% left to 23% right for the major parties). Perhaps a trend piece about Millennials is in order.
posted by clawsoon at 5:17 AM on June 9 [8 favorites]


Kensington still needs another recount, scheduled for 6pm apparently. There are claims Tories have written it off though.
posted by EndsOfInvention at 5:22 AM on June 9 [2 favorites]


Prospects for next election in 2022 are good


All your 'better things' are assuming there is still a country in 2022.

Tories have now successfully pushed out the 2020 election to 2022 and they have managed to remain in power. And they are friends with a party who will push them *further* right. This is why I still think things have gotten worse. Perhaps there is hope in the longer term but the short term looks pretty grim unless there's a Tory coup and they replace TM with a moderate. Not holding my breath though.
posted by vacapinta at 5:26 AM on June 9


Is this election a bigger fuckup for May than Brexit was for Cameron?
posted by leotrotsky at 5:26 AM on June 9 [1 favorite]


Despite BBC announcement, Kensington is still uncertain apparently.
Another recount will commence at 1800.
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 5:29 AM on June 9 [1 favorite]


Tories have now successfully pushed out the 2020 election to 2022

I think you're overestimating the stability of a Tory-DUP alliance, even with the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act. They'll be lucky if they've pushed it out to next summer.
posted by littlegreen at 5:31 AM on June 9 [13 favorites]


No chance there won't be another election long before 2022, which the electorate is likely to be quite unhappy about and blame squarely on May, in the unlikely event the Tories haven't quietly buried her in an unmarked political grave before that.
posted by walrus at 5:42 AM on June 9 [4 favorites]




When asked by Americans who the DUP are, I say "Imagine a party that is still actually fighting the wars of the Reformation, and every MP is Ted Cruz."
posted by rum-soaked space hobo at 5:50 AM on June 9 [37 favorites]


Kensington is fascinating. Centuries of old money voting Tory, gradually pushed out by Russian oligarchs and non-domiciled millionaires who haven't got a vote there. I really hope this happens and the power structures begin a change for the better, because right now they're an island of an obstructionist local authority working against everyone's interests.
posted by rum-soaked space hobo at 5:52 AM on June 9 [5 favorites]


I wonder if the right-wing press, after all the mud they threw at Corbyn over talking to the IRA, will make any fuss over the former connections between the DUP and Loyalist terrorists?

Ulster Resistance, back in 1987:

"The group was launched at a three thousand-strong invitation-only meeting at the Ulster Hall. The rally was chaired by the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) Press Officer Sammy Wilson and addressed by party colleagues Ian Paisley, Peter Robinson and Ivan Foster."

"DUP deputy leader Peter Robinson was also photographed wearing the militant loyalist paramilitary regalia of beret and military fatigues at an Ulster Resistance rally."
posted by Azara at 5:53 AM on June 9 [8 favorites]


Depending on the agreements on travel between the UK and the EU the situation could remain the same with passport checks (and stamps if the border is considered to be 'hard') on entry to either the UK or Ireland from the rest of the EU and the world but not on travelling between them.

If UK citizens need a visa to travel to the EU then there will need to be more stringent checks built in somewhere when crossing into the EU? I guess its possible Ireland could have those in place at its own borders but I'm not sure they will be keen to do so. I am pontificating here but I guess this might make a difference to the negotiations about what UK citizens do need in order to get into the EU post-Brexit.
posted by biffa at 5:54 AM on June 9


Not all photographs of Peter Robinson were of him in paramilitary uniform. Here he is in his civvies. (Albeit in Israel rather than NI).
posted by vbfg at 5:57 AM on June 9 [1 favorite]


When asked by Americans who the DUP are, I say "Imagine a party that is still actually fighting the wars of the Reformation, and every MP is Ted Cruz."
All that, plus also corruption. They're holy warriors on all sorts of issues related to other people's religion and morality, but they're not so much with the "thou shalt not lie" and "thou shalt not steal" side of things.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 5:57 AM on June 9 [8 favorites]


As S-Club might have said, there ain't no party like a backbiting, back stabbing Tory party. Guess which newspaper is running with 'Queen of Denial' this evening?
posted by biffa at 5:58 AM on June 9 [3 favorites]


I feel like the DUP being in a kingmaking position is some kind of karmic payback for years of Brits laughing at US politicians who didn't believe in dinosaurs, climate change, lgbt rights or peaceful inter-religious co-existence.
posted by Erberus at 6:02 AM on June 9 [4 favorites]


When asked by Americans who the DUP are, I say "Imagine a party that is still actually fighting the wars of the Reformation, and every MP is Ted Cruz."

All that, plus also corruption. They're holy warriors on all sorts of issues related to other people's religion and morality, but they're not so much with the "thou shalt not lie" and "thou shalt not steal" side of things.


...So, like the GOP, except that they're stuck in an era a bit older than the Mayflower or the Confederacy?
posted by Sockin'inthefreeworld at 6:06 AM on June 9 [4 favorites]


I wonder if the right-wing press, after all the mud they threw at Corbyn over talking to the IRA, will make any fuss over the former connections between the DUP and Loyalist terrorists?

IOKIYAT
posted by leotrotsky at 6:08 AM on June 9 [14 favorites]


Perhaps there is hope in the longer term but the short term looks pretty grim unless there's a Tory coup and they replace TM with a moderate. Not holding my breath though.

Don't forget that, in a 650-member parliament, byelections are a regular occurrence. If the ConDUP government does badly, its majority may crumble soon, to the point where it cannot get a vote of confidence.

Also, party discipline. May is a disciplinarian, but is in a weak position. The Tories are a broad church; they were split on Leave/Remain, and I can imagine there would be a number of MPs who don't want part of whatever concession the DUP demand for their support. Can May keep a lid on dissent?
posted by acb at 6:12 AM on June 9 [7 favorites]


Just tried to explain the DUP to one of my developers, who is a newly-arrived American now living in London and who has been putting an admirable level of effort into trying to understand this whole electoral process whilst still fresh off the boat.

ME: Okay. So they're really not nice people. They don't believe in abortion. Or climate change. Or...
HER: Riiight. So basically they're the Republicans!
ME: Well... no. I mean, they're also uber religious and...
HER: Yeah... that's Republicans. Gotcha.

I was going to argue, but then realised she kinda had a point. Reminded me how big the divide is on a cultural level between the two sides of the Pond sometimes.
posted by garius at 6:12 AM on June 9 [12 favorites]


Okay, few thoughts on all of this.

Theresa May is a dead woman walking. The Tories had a working majority, and she gambled that, ran a terrible campaign that was centred on her, performed poorly in public or didn't turn up, and ultimately lost. That party eats its own, and there will be multiple factions who were sharpening their knives even before the exit poll. I don't expect her to last the summer, but I don't know who'll replace her. There is going to be a lot of infighting about which faction is to blame for this - Hard Brexiters, the more liberal side of the party, traditionalists, etc. I'm expecting to see some factionalism like Major had to deal with when he was dependent on the Ulster Unionists. That's going to make it a lot harder to predict than a coronation style process. If she tries to carry on as she has, I think she will be in for a very nasty surprise. Tories follow winners, and she is not a winner. I'm expecting more push back on her Brexit strategy from Remain backing MPs - she called this to endorse her vision of Brexit, and by her own definition it has been rejected.

On that front, I don't expect the Tories to be able to pass anything remotely controversial. This size of the swing to Labour is going to make a lot of Tory MPs very nervous for their seats. They've seen the party nationally lose popularity, so they won't want to be tied to anything that could tip the balance in their local constituency. Imagine if you're asked to vote to freeze NHS budgets when a hospital in your area is facing closure, if you're asked to support leaving the Single Market when your constituency voted Remain, if you're asked to back fracking in your area. Anything remotely controversial will see Tory MPs starting to back off supporting it. On the other side, a lot of them will be trying to make sure that their name is known locally, so that they're not dependent on the national party when the next election comes. That should lead to more awkward questions to promote local concerns and issues.

The Tories being propped up by the DUP is going to be exploited and driven home by the other parties relentlessly. Let's not forget that they have spent this campaign attacking Corbyn for having had meetings with former IRA members, and warned about the dangers of Labour being propped up by a regional party in the SNP and having to dispense favours. The DUP have historical links to the loyalist paramilitary groups in Northern Ireland, and are a regional party who the Tories will have to dispense favours to. Even if only beneath the surface, this is going to cause tensions within the Tory party and the press. The DUP are a Northern Ireland party first and foremost, and they know that a Hard Brexit will have terrible consequences for Northern Ireland in the short term, and for their core belief that it should remain part of the United Kingdom in the long term. The Tories have to square this with their own rabid right who are demanding that same Hard Brexit.

That's not a government that can get much done, and there will be another election soon to fix that. Either by the Tories gambling, or by a vote of no confidence in the house. Feel that all the pressure above is going to make this more likely as well. The last two years are going to have seriously damaged their reputation for being a safe pair of hands for the economy - two damaging impacts inflicted by them to resolve party internal issues with the Brexit referendum, and now a hung parliament. They will also be blamed for the face that there's another election. This is not strong and stable, and that phrase will be an albatross around their necks.

We've now got a very clear view of where the Tories are going to be most vulnerable when that next election comes around, and it's in seats which weren't even thought to be in play. I hope we'll see even more tactical voting to remove those MPs. That's got to mean things like more support for the Lib Dems in Richmond (Tory majority 45) or Labour in Hastings (Tory majority 346). Look at this as a practise run - it's either confirmed which of the progressive parties people should back (Lib Dems in Twickenham), or proven that it was different to what some thought (back Labour over Lib Dems in Portsmouth South). Ideally this will mean a coalition that can agree on voting reform (maybe regional top up PR?).

On the Lib Dems, I'm extremely glad to see an increase in the number of MPs. Would have preferred to have seen more, especially with the number of narrow losses to the Tories. Firmly believe in the values of the party, and that we will continue to come back in by-elections and general elections. At some point this country will move on from First Past The Post, and I look forward to that day. I'm sorry to see Nick Clegg go - I hope he stays in politics in some form, especially to hold the government's feet to the fire over the Brexit negotiations (whoever is in government).

I'm glad to see Labour's resurgency as well. This country needs a strong opposition with a clear difference to the government. Labour and Corbyn are looking like they are going to be able to provide that now, and I hope the support continues between elections and gets generally involved in politics. I'm hopeful that it's going to shift the Overton Window back away from the UKIP inspired move to the right.

So where do we go from here? We prepare, and we pressure. Get in touch with your local party, join your local party, start looking at all levels of government (Parish, County, whatever) and see where you might be able to make a difference. Build up your connections now. When that next election comes we should be ready to go from day one - canvassing, getting people registered, campaigning. If you live in a constituency which isn't a reasonable target for your party, then you'll be ready to help in the nearest one that is. Remember, some of these were decided by less than 100 people.

YOU CAN AND WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE.

If you're in a Tory seat, get awkward. Hold your MP's feet to the fire, go to constituency surgeries, ask them the difficult questions about if they support cuts to the local hospital or schools, ask them what they're planning to do about housing in your area, ask them what they're doing to make sure a disastrous Hard Brexit that wasn't on the referendum paper doesn't happen. Make them work for you as your constituency MP, make them sweat, make them nervous, make them realise that their seat may not be safe.
posted by MattWPBS at 6:14 AM on June 9 [56 favorites]


Am I correct in believing the evangelical movement in the US is essentially the by product of NI evangelicals emigrating? I can find no evidence of it now but I think I have believed that for some time.
posted by vbfg at 6:15 AM on June 9


There are actually pretty deep connections between the DUP and various kinds of politicized Southern US fundamentalism. Ian Paisley, who founded the DUP, was a trustee of Bob Jones University, for instance. The main difference is that American fundies stopped seeing Catholicism as a big enemy after the '60s, and for obvious reason that didn't happen in Northern Ireland. But yeah, it's not wrong to understand the DUP through the lens of American politicized evangelical Christianity, because there are definite similarities and links, if you just keep in mind that anti-Catholicism plays a somewhat similar role in NI evangelical culture that racism does in white Southern American evangelical culture.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 6:16 AM on June 9 [26 favorites]


It'll be very interesting to see how the Tories can whip when basically all of their power just shifted to backbenchers with a variety of competing interests. Some Conservatives are going to want a soft Brexit because of finance reasons while others will be pushing for a complete Hard Brexit. I can't see May having the ability to actually negotiate anything resembling favorable terms from the EU.

The gains in Scotland by the Conservatives are going to have to be seen as temporary at best as they seem to reflect anti-Independence sentiment more than pro-Conservative sentiment. Many of those seats seem like they would possibly shift back towards SNP or Labour if the circumstances warrant it.

Factor in the likelihood of the DUPs likely demanding cabinet positions in order to advance all sorts of regressive political positions and it seems like May's future as PM is going to be super duper fun. She no doubt imagined herself becoming Thatcher 2.0 and now that's going to be illusory at best.
posted by vuron at 6:18 AM on June 9 [2 favorites]


Am I correct in believing the evangelical movement in the US is essentially the by product of NI evangelicals emigrating? I can find no evidence of it now but I think I have believed that for some time.

The often vaunted “Scotch-Irish” cultural base of parts of the US South comes from Northern Ireland and the Scottish Borders.
posted by acb at 6:20 AM on June 9 [5 favorites]


It seems unlikely that a newly-reelected Prime Minister may have to consider resigning soon afterwards...

but Theresa May
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 6:20 AM on June 9 [3 favorites]


Am I correct in believing the evangelical movement in the US is essentially the by product of NI evangelicals emigrating?
At a deep historical level, this is true to a large extent. A lot of American evangelicals are descendants of Ulster Presbyterians who left Ireland in the 18th century. But I mean, it's been a pretty eventful four hundred years, so I'm not sure you should overstate the importance of that.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 6:20 AM on June 9 [11 favorites]


For those waking up in Tory areas, there is a template going around written by Amy Bottrill for you to express your profound displeasure at this alliance. This needs to become the UK version of the Indivisible movement: get on the phone, write letters, attend surgeries. Make your disagreement heard!
posted by rum-soaked space hobo at 6:21 AM on June 9 [14 favorites]


*Fred removes head from giant Video-camera*

Shaggy: Why there was no Panopticon terror monster after all, it was ol' Theresa May all along!

May: ...and I would have gotten away with it too, if it weren't for your meddling voters!
posted by leotrotsky at 6:22 AM on June 9 [4 favorites]


All your 'better things' are assuming there is still a country in 2022. ... This is why I still think things have gotten worse.

Yeah, I think the worse things outweigh the better things for the time being too. Just the fact that Theresa May could issue this statement as if everything is business as usual suggests that all the awful things the Tories promised in their manifesto are coming our way. Enjoy your relatively unencumbered web browsing, as who knows how long it will last.

The Fixed-term Parliaments Act is still in force. Provided the Tories throw the DUP a few bones, they could hold on for quite some time. The DUP have said that "anyone but Corbyn" is their guiding principle, and Labour aren't about to drop him as leader now. Anti-Tory forces can't muster the 434 votes needed to trigger an early election directly, and what are the actual chances that half a dozen Tories would support a vote of no confidence in their own government? If May proves problematic, it would be simpler and safer to hit the Party Leader Ejector Seat button and install a "fresh" alternative.

The Callaghan minority government lasted a few years in the 1970s. A Tory minority government will only need half that to fuck up everything for the entire country for generations.

Nevertheless, this is no reason for paralysis: anything progressives can do to make their lives harder, we should. And nothing can take away the glorious schadenfreude of seeing this election blow up in their faces.
posted by rory at 6:26 AM on June 9 [5 favorites]




Is there anyone with a hope of taking over as Tory leader who would fancy the free flying shitfest they would have on their hands if they do? No meaningful majority, keeping Brexit on track, economy looking precarious as a result. It doesn't suggest longevity for the political career. How divided is the party? Could it get behind a Gove or Boris Johnson? Rudd looks weak after last night. Maybe Hammond, but would he want it now?

Factor in the likelihood of the DUPs likely demanding cabinet positions in order to advance all sorts of regressive political positions and it seems like May's future as PM is going to be super duper fun.

I'm not convinced they will do this. They are aware there is little national appetite for their antediluvian bullshit. I think they are more likely to use it for all sorts of NI specific stuff, getting protection they want out of Brexit and screwing as much money as they can for NI - the latter being basically what they did under Major, when they were essentially shoring him up.
posted by biffa at 6:29 AM on June 9


Oddly enough, I literally just now finished reading a chapter about Ian Paisley in a book called "Them: Adventures With Extremists" which should probably give you an indication of what his views were like.
posted by kyrademon at 6:35 AM on June 9 [4 favorites]


Boris is so desperate for it he'll take any chance. The others... not so much.

To be honest, a Boris PM-ed Brexit would be soft as hell - his time as London Mayor showed that the one trait he definitely does share with his idol, Churchill, is an ability to utterly disregard ideology for the sake of a quick pragmatic win that he can sell to the public in his own bumbly way. Hell, that's why he backed Leave in the first place.

Not saying I'd want him as PM, personally, as I can't stand the man (and am enormously proud of the fact that at one time, at least, he shared a similar dislike of me). But that would be the one single slither of a silver lining within the blonde, bullying, Bullingdon cloud.
posted by garius at 6:35 AM on June 9 [8 favorites]


I think they are more likely to use it for all sorts of NI specific stuff,

This, for instance...
Democratic Unionist sources have told the Guardian that one possible sweetener for the party from Theresa May and the Tories is the possible elevation of Peter Robinson to the House of Lords.
Grauniad live update
posted by Mister Bijou at 6:36 AM on June 9


The Tories are a broad church; they were split on Leave/Remain, and I can imagine there would be a number of MPs who don't want part of whatever concession the DUP demand for their support.

Apart from Ken Clarke, are there many staunch Tory Remainers left? Surely most once-Remain Tory MPs have made their peace with the party's Hard Brexit turn, or they wouldn't have stood in this election in the first place.

basically what they did under Major, when they were essentially shoring him up.

Wasn't it the centre-right Ulster Unionists who shored up Major, rather than this creationist-right bunch?
posted by rory at 6:36 AM on June 9 [1 favorite]


If UK citizens need a visa to travel to the EU then there will need to be more stringent checks built in somewhere when crossing into the EU? I guess its possible Ireland could have those in place at its own borders but I'm not sure they will be keen to do so. I am pontificating here but I guess this might make a difference to the negotiations about what UK citizens do need in order to get into the EU post-Brexit.

ROI cannot be a member both of the EU (requiring free movement) and a common travel area agreement with the UK that would require EU citizens to have visas to enter. I suppose they could be a member of both if there is no visa requirement, but then the UK loses the ability to "secure our borders" or whatever, and has to accept EU citizens entering and leaving the county as they please at the very least, even if it doesn't grant the right to employment (and this is when illegal immigration - in the sense of people working without permits - really starts to become a problem).

There's no easy solution here that doesn't involve the UK largely retaining free movement agreements with the EU.
posted by Dysk at 6:38 AM on June 9 [8 favorites]


You might be right, I may be too quick to throw them all on one heap.
posted by biffa at 6:39 AM on June 9


Anna Soubry springs to mind as someone who's probably still quite Remain?
posted by edd at 6:39 AM on June 9


I so appreciate this thread, which has really helped me (American ignoramus) understand what's going on in this election. I have no insights to offer myself, but instead will merely share this, perhaps the most glorious post-election-speech photo ever. Mr. Fishfinger: resolute and undaunted, even in defeat.
posted by Kat Allison at 6:40 AM on June 9 [3 favorites]


Two Scotland related things.

1) Heard Ruth Davidson suggested as a future Tory leader. Could be a smart move, she's more on the wet side of the Tories, not been involved in the internal knife fighting from last time, and is nowhere near as toxic as someone like Gove or Rudd.

2) I think the SNP are going to have to take IndyRef2 off the table for at least five years. If those 15%+ swings were a Unionist alliance where there was a clear second party, they could be in trouble anywhere after this time established who the second party is.
posted by MattWPBS at 6:40 AM on June 9


Yeah, I think the worse things outweigh the better things for the time being too. Just the fact that Theresa May could issue this statement as if everything is business as usual suggests that all the awful things the Tories promised in their manifesto are coming our way. Enjoy your relatively unencumbered web browsing, as who knows how long it will last.

The Fixed-term Parliaments Act is still in force. Provided the Tories throw the DUP a few bones, they could hold on for quite some time. The DUP have said that "anyone but Corbyn" is their guiding principle, and Labour aren't about to drop him as leader now. Anti-Tory forces can't muster the 434 votes needed to trigger an early election directly, and what are the actual chances that half a dozen Tories would support a vote of no confidence in their own government? If May proves problematic, it would be simpler and safer to hit the Party Leader Ejector Seat button and install a "fresh" alternative.


OTOH, byelections still happen. And while a vote of no confidence may be ruled out, there's nothing guaranteeing the government the ability to pass legislation when they don't have the numbers. The result would be paralysis for anything that they can't sell to Labour, the Lib Dems or the SNP.

Even without byelections, there is the question of party discipline vs. local MPs nervously eyeing their margins and not wanting to be tarred with the brush of the May agenda. And also, given the hung parliament, the convention that the Lords don't block manifesto commitments might not apply.
posted by acb at 6:40 AM on June 9 [2 favorites]


Just tried to explain the DUP to one of my developers...

HER: Riiight. So basically they're the Republicans!


no they really hate republicans
posted by indubitable at 6:41 AM on June 9 [70 favorites]


Apart from Ken Clarke, are there many staunch Tory Remainers left? Surely most once-Remain Tory MPs have made their peace with the party's Hard Brexit turn, or they wouldn't have stood in this election in the first place

The conventional wisdom was that the Overton Window had moved to the right with UKIP, and the Tories were going to sweep up all those votes. I think a lot of the Tory MPs who supported Remain went with that and kept their heads down. Conventional wisdom doesn't stand up after the results though, so I think they'll be bolder in pushing for a softer Brexit.
posted by MattWPBS at 6:43 AM on June 9 [6 favorites]


Yes. Ruth Davidson for one now making a lot of pro-soft-Brexit noises. (After having been pro Remain, pro soft Brexit, and then pro hard Brexit.)
posted by Catseye at 6:45 AM on June 9 [2 favorites]


Quote from Guardian Liveblog.

Angela Merkel is travelling around South America today, and her spokesperson said that she would not comment on the outcome of the UK elections “out of politeness and respect”.

Could add 'at this time of great loss for Mrs May'.
posted by MattWPBS at 6:46 AM on June 9 [19 favorites]




I think we should be laying it on heavily to all moderate tories that their party is responsible for creationists being in government.

The DUP are horrific monsters in many ways, but many of those ways are just more extreme versions of the tories. (And we should be nailing them for that too). But creationism is a political punchline. It's a joke.
Make them see that the party they support really has no line when it comes to what they'll do for power.

There are sane, moderate, tory voters out there. They deserve better.
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 6:58 AM on June 9 [6 favorites]


May, 4th of June: "There is, to be frank, far too much tolerance of extremism in our country... We need to become far more robust in identifying it and stamping it out across the public sector and across the society."

May, 9th of June: "we will continue to work with our friends and allies in the Democratic Unionist Party."

Life comes at you fast.
posted by Catseye at 7:01 AM on June 9 [55 favorites]


May, 4th of June: "There is, to be frank, far too much tolerance of extremism in our country... We need to become far more robust in identifying it and stamping it out across the public sector and across the society."

May, 9th of June: "we will continue to work with our friends and allies in the Democratic Unionist Party."


That's going in my letter to my Tory MP then.
posted by MattWPBS at 7:05 AM on June 9 [23 favorites]


Also, Lord Buckethead dabbing on stage next to Theresa May is my favourite photo I think.
posted by MattWPBS at 7:09 AM on June 9 [20 favorites]


Not saying I'd want him as PM, personally, as I can't stand the man (and am enormously proud of the fact that at one time, at least, he shared a similar dislike of me).

You can't drop that in a thread and not spill the beans, garius. Please do share.
posted by Happy Dave at 7:14 AM on June 9 [4 favorites]


Does the DUP actually have a governing agenda? I mean, couldn't May just throw a little garden party and let them wear their sashes and burn the Pope in effigy and then count on their votes for ever and ever amen? They have one issue, union forever. They have no ambitions in the home counties, how much good it would even do one of them back home to have a portfolio in the national government? I mean, they're nutters, but they're very, very parochial nutters.

Seems to me wobbly Tories in soft seats are likely to be May's real problem, not having to kowtow to the dinosaurs in orange...
posted by Diablevert at 7:17 AM on June 9


Also, Waterford Whispers on point as usual:

Tories To Make Deal With DUP After Satan Pulls Out
posted by Diablevert at 7:23 AM on June 9 [5 favorites]


Near misses... [seen on Twitter]

The Tories were only 4 seats and a mere 287 votes away from a working majority of 322. And 1,688 votes away from a proper majority of 326.

Equally had the Tories won seven fewer seats they couldn't govern even with the DUP - so we were just 2,227 votes from Corbyn being PM.
posted by rory at 7:23 AM on June 9 [8 favorites]


Okay, this is a less than ideal outcome, but one thing I'm really, really pleased about is that my Labour MP held on to her seat by a margin of around thirty-five thousand votes. Go, people living in my part of the UK! (I am a filthy foreigner who can't vote. Yet.)
posted by Mr. Bad Example at 7:30 AM on June 9 [7 favorites]


FPTP is a very exciting but totally bullshit way to choose governments.
posted by Happy Dave at 7:32 AM on June 9 [23 favorites]


The 2 things that May seemed likely to do if given a larger majority was a "Hard" Brexit (basically assuming that the EU would blink and give access to the common market while also maintaining closed borders - not terribly likely) and some sort of increased privatization of the NHS under the guise of austerity.

Now she'll have to bribe the DUP nutcases with all sorts of goodies while also pretending to have a solid negotiating position with Brussels. Honestly no possible solution of the Brexit question will even equal the former favored nation status the UK already had. Some sort of Norwayesque membership in EEA/EFTA that inevitably means compliance with some form of open border if not inclusion in the Schengen Area.

Free Movement is an essential part of the European Free Market and it seems like the EU would be loathe to surrender that principle to the UK. I could see some sort of joint European-North American free trade agreement that would accomplish a similar effect but that would be Europe negotiating with the US on roughly equivalent terms, I can't see the EU wanting to give special treatment to the UK.

Especially given the likelihood that all sorts of business will migrate from London to Paris/Berlin if the UK loses access to the Common Market.

Considering May shows zero political instincts and a tendency to overestimate the strength of her position I think the UK is in for some very interesting times ahead.
posted by vuron at 7:47 AM on June 9 [2 favorites]


Given her knack for negotiating, perhaps we'll end up having adopted the Euro by accident.
posted by acb at 7:51 AM on June 9 [29 favorites]


From The Guardian:
According to ITV’s Robert Peston, it’s all getting a bit Malcolm Tucker in the Conservative party.
Robert Peston ✔ @Peston
Senior Tory MP: "We all f***ing hate her. But there is nothing we can do. She has totally f***ed us".
posted by EndsOfInvention at 8:06 AM on June 9 [23 favorites]


This thread has been very informative, thank you mefites. After I heard election results this morning on BBC America, I headed straight here, because i figured I'd get solid, condensed, relevant information.

I went to school in England almost 40 years ago, but I don't recall much about British governance, and I believe the whole of parliament has changed since then anyway. Someone spoke above about being raised to the house of lords. Is the lords not hereditary? Can anyone recommend a good primer on the structural makeup of UK government ? Assume my knowledge of it stops in the era of Trollope.
posted by SecretAgentSockpuppet at 8:09 AM on June 9 [1 favorite]


They abolished hereditary peerhoods sometime ago (I think Blair may have presided over this). Now it's a life appointment; a House of the Great and Good if you're idealistic, a House of Cronies if you're cynical.
posted by acb at 8:12 AM on June 9 [1 favorite]


Parliament website has some good primers on how it works. House of Lords is basically partially reformed in a way that nobody's really happy with but nobody can work out how to practically improve.
posted by Catseye at 8:13 AM on June 9 [6 favorites]




Also, Lord Buckethead dabbing on stage next to Theresa May is my favourite photo I think.

WAIT WAIT WAIT

It says he's running as an independent? He's not with the Gremloids any more? I just... I don't know if I can believe in anything any more.
posted by ROU_Xenophobe at 8:38 AM on June 9 [10 favorites]


Lord Buckethead cannot be contained.

Except for inside the bucket, obvs.
posted by Happy Dave at 8:50 AM on June 9 [11 favorites]


@LordBuckethead: Savouring the moment.
posted by zombieflanders at 8:53 AM on June 9 [1 favorite]


Just now. GRAUNIAD FTW.

What are "etbacks"?
posted by lalochezia at 8:56 AM on June 9


What are "etbacks"?

"Torie"?
posted by Mister Bijou at 8:59 AM on June 9


I'm just trying to imagine how it must feel to be 18 right now and feel like you can actually make the world better if you try. How empowering must that be, at such a formative time of life?

As opposed to me in 1992, as a 17-year-old Labour Party activist who genuinely thought we were going to win the election and was so broken when we didn't that I started to slide away from party politics - a slide I completed a few years later when I got so disgusted by Blair's hypocrisy on education that I resigned from the party in my early 20s and never went back.
posted by penguin pie at 9:00 AM on June 9 [6 favorites]


Is the Scum already flipping out over May giving the keys to the realm across the border? Last time around they seemed oddly concerned Labour would partner up with the SNP.
posted by lmfsilva at 9:06 AM on June 9 [1 favorite]




You can't drop that in a thread and not spill the beans, garius. Please do share.

When Boris Johnson was pushing through the Thames cable car as London Mayor, I ran a piece on LR showing how they were fudging the numbers to make it sound better value than it actually was. In fact, it was actually, arguably the most expensive cable car, per metre, in the world. Everyone from the BBC to Sky picked up the story and ran with it. This led to several awkward interviews for him and City Hall suggested I might want to "revise" our numbers if I wished to continue being invited to press events where the mayor was present. I refused and I was placed on Boris' 'definitely-doesn't-exist' blacklist of journos. This meant you would magically stop receiving invites to things until too late, or your name would somehow fail to make it onto the list at the door etc.

Luckily this didn't affect me much as both TfL (and later Crossrail) would invite me to the events anyway, so I wasn't reliant on the Mayor's office for access. Boris would occasionally see me at these and be clearly annoyed but couldn't say anything about it.

This reaction got worse when we started regularly publishing unedited transcripts of Mayor's Question Time so there'd be an easily searchable record of things he had said or promised in monthly sessions in front of the Assembly. He would often come across as petty, irritable and bullying in these (we stopped doing it when they became far easier to find and browse on the London Assembly website).

Indeed at one event he finally asked me how I'd got an invite. I told him it certainly wasn't from his office and asked him why this was. 'My dear boy,' he said with a friendly smile, 'because you have an erring tendency to tell the truth!"

I later found out that after that event he ordered TfL to stop inviting me to events. The late, great Stuart Ross refused point-blank, and made it very clear that the Mayor's office should not ask again.

So, hardly a great story or Watergate-esque journalism on my part to cause it - but that's Boris.

Having spent far more time than I'd like watching him and being around him, the best way I can describe him is as a smarter, posher version of Donald Trump.

He's immensely charming on a personal level and combined with his intelligence that can make him a formidable force (as it was in getting Crossrail through). Unfortunately he's also utterly self-obsessed, and a physical and psychological bully - particularly of women (this was noticeable week in and out in his interractions at MQT with Val Shawcross and Caroline Pidgeon on the Transport Committee). He also lacks an ounce of loyalty - i saw him throw aides under the metaphorical bus on multiple occasions - and is easily manipulable by anyone he wants to impress.

All that matters to Boris is being thought of as amazing, and being top banana - and anything that serves either of those two ends he will do, almost compulsively, without a second thought - right down to Trump-esque information drops to show he's "in the know" (although I hope the Foreign Office managed to train him out of this).

Weirdly - the bullying aside - that actually made him a very successful Mayor in London. His political pragmatism and obvious threat to Cameron and Osborne was exactly the right combination the city needed to keep the investment tap on at a critical time. And that's what I can sort of see those same traits working out for the UK now if he were PM. Certainly he's no Euro-sceptic. He's one of the most pro-European Tory MPs I've met.

Doesn't change the fact that he's an odious little toad though, as a person. And I would chew my own arm off before I put an X next to his name - directly or indirectly - on a ballot paper.
posted by garius at 9:37 AM on June 9 [152 favorites]


A true madman would strongarm the DUP by threatening to install Corbyn as PM.
posted by Talez at 9:49 AM on June 9 [1 favorite]


only Corbyn is THE ABSOLUTE MADMAN, this has been established
posted by indubitable at 10:19 AM on June 9 [2 favorites]


Garius - I'm curious - how do you rate Sadiq by comparison. I mean, I like him, and he's a relief after the ... um ... excitements of his predecessors, but I just realised I don't know whether he's effective at all.
posted by Grangousier at 10:24 AM on June 9


only Corbyn is THE ABSOLUTE MADMAN, this has been established

Corbyn is such a madman he would take his finger OFF THE BUTTON.
posted by Talez at 10:25 AM on June 9 [13 favorites]


Theresa May says she will reflect on why Tories lost seats

Presumably this means she's going to spend the weekend looking in a mirror.
posted by howfar at 10:27 AM on June 9 [7 favorites]


Presumably this means she's going to spend the weekend looking in a mirror.

Don't be ridiculous.

Theresa May doesn't have a reflection.
posted by Talez at 10:33 AM on June 9 [38 favorites]


It's great to volunteer on a longshot campaign and win :D

(Nicola Blackwood's majority was 9582)
posted by Urtylug at 10:40 AM on June 9 [5 favorites]


When Boris Johnson was pushing through the Thames cable car as London Mayor...

Thank you garius, I enjoyed that nearly as much as your queuing story.
posted by Happy Dave at 10:54 AM on June 9 [8 favorites]


Judging by the unchanging senior cabinet positions, it looks like they're just going to pretend there never was an election.
posted by dng at 11:07 AM on June 9 [5 favorites]


This is probably a very foolish question from this American who doesn't understand the intricacies of the British system, but I haven't been able to find an answer anywhere. Why doesn't a less odious party offer to form a coalition with the Tories? I get that in some ways the DUP is the key ally for the Tories if they want a majority for their agenda, but it seems like a situation that even many Conservatives find very undesirable. I know the Lib Dems feel burned by how their coalition went last time, but why doesn't the SNP or some other party help form a government in order to block the DUP? Would they be bound in some way to help the Tories carry out their agenda? Is there a reason they can't make a deal, score a few concessions, prevent the extremists from gaining outsized power, and then vote on legislation as they would have anyways, while the Tories could seek support from the DUP on points of common interest without being beholden to them in the same way?
posted by vathek at 11:11 AM on June 9 [1 favorite]


Thanks for your efforts Urtylug!
posted by pharm at 11:13 AM on June 9


Garius - I'm curious - how do you rate Sadiq by comparison. I mean, I like him, and he's a relief after the ... um ... excitements of his predecessors, but I just realised I don't know whether he's effective at all.

My experience so far has been that Sadiq is a consummate politician. That lead to several major fuck-ups to begin with, both in his campaign and as Mayor, because he, and the political staffers he parachuted in, were over-confident and failed to understand that the politics of London work very differently to those of Westminster. Most notably there's a real technocratic element to being Mayor, due to the extensive transport portfolio it begins, which you either have to throw yourself entirely into (as Livingstone did) or entirely delegate out (as Boris did to Sir Peter Hendy as Transport Commissioner).

Like Boris, Sadiq also has a self-publicity streak and gets very, very, annoyed if anyone (or any agency) robs him of an opportunity to push his personal brand. It's become a bit of a running joke in certain areas of London's bureaucracy, for example, that you can't put 'the Mayor of London' on a poster or public document anymore. You always have to put 'the Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan' or you're likely to get a telling off (keep an eye on posters on the Tube and you'll see this). Similarly, after we openly questioned the maths of his fare's promise in the run up to his election he refused (or at least his team did) to participate in our interview series with every candidate. Which, as a Labour Party member myself, made me fucking furious.

Although I've not witnessed it myself, according to other journos who spend a lot of time at City Hall who I trust, he also has a Boris-esque vindictive streak if you've written something he thinks was unfair (whether it was or not). That vindictive streak extends to his political rivals - which I have witnessed - most notably Conservative MP Chris Grayling, who Khan loathes. The feeling is mutual, and along with Brexit, their mutual drive to screw each other over is one of the primary reasons that rail devolution in London was scuppered (self link) - so that's definitely one strike against him in the effectiveness stakes, which hopefully he's learned from.

Like Boris, he also very clearly has his eyes on the highest prize - being PM. Indeed the general feeling until now has been that he would likely be a one-term Mayor, with him (rightly) having calculated that the office of Mayor was a good way to build up public experience and reputation in an otherwise Tory-dominated political era. And that he'd have looked to get himself back into parliament by the 2020 election so he could be the front-runner to succeed Corbyn. This election, however, has changed that landscape entirely and who knows what that means for Sadiq's plans yet.

All that said... the interactions I've had with him - and this seems also to be the opinion of most other people I know - have left me with the impression that, slippery, political and ambitious as he can be, he is a genuinely decent human being with real convictions and a desire to help create a city (and potentially country) in which anyone can grow up to be anything.

His "son of a bus driver" line became a bit of a meme, but it was absolutely from the heart. And the aforementioned fares blunder was in part caused because he stubbornly refused to give the policy up. Most of the media put that down to bloody-mindedness and a refusal to admit he was wrong, but I actually remember seeing him give a talk when he was a junior minister about how high fares crippled social mobility. There were reasons behind that policy other than trying to be popular (which was partly why I was annoyed he bottled our interview. I wanted to show there was way more nuance to the situation than the mainstream press was pushing).

So basically he's got a fair few of Boris' flaws and is an inveterate politician with (so far at least) a touch more style than substance. But his handling of his campaign - in the face of a rabid, racist counter campaign by Goldsmith, his handling of the terrorism incidents, and his handling of Trump's tweets seem to be showing, he's got a touch of the statesman about him when he needs to be.

Right now, as a party member, he'd absolutely have my vote in a leadership election. And frankly I think he'd walk a General Election.
posted by garius at 11:23 AM on June 9 [66 favorites]




Is there a reason they can't make a deal, score a few concessions, prevent the extremists from gaining outsized power, and then vote on legislation as they would have anyways, while the Tories could seek support from the DUP on points of common interest without being beholden to them in the same way?

Well in part you've answered your own question - because the Lib Dems remember all too well what happened to them last time, and the only thing the Tories could offer the SNP is a referendum on Scottish independence, which the Tories will never, ever do again after the scare last time.
posted by garius at 11:26 AM on June 9 [4 favorites]


Why doesn't a less odious party offer to form a coalition with the Tories?

The remaining parties that could form a workable coalition are either centrist or center-left with a mix of Scottish Nationalism thrown in. The Lib Dems tried this in 2010 and installed the Torys as leaders after getting promised a referendum on preferential voting which would be fairer but would greatly increase Lib Dem prospects in future elections. The Tories basically stabbed the Lib Dems in the back on the referendum campaigning hard against it, the Lib Dems were mostly seen as co-conspirators to Tory cruelty in their electorates and saw a massive drubbing in 2015 going from 57 seats down to 8.

Nobody else wants to get in bed with them.
posted by Talez at 11:27 AM on June 9 [14 favorites]


I know the Lib Dems feel burned by how their coalition went last time, but why doesn't the SNP or some other party help form a government in order to block the DUP? Would they be bound in some way to help the Tories carry out their agenda?

They'd never live it down. The progressive/left-of-centre parties are competing for non-Tory voters, and any association with the Tories would irrevocably tarnish their brand. Just passing a budget that was 25% as cruel as it would otherwise have been would make them complicit in what cruelty remains in it. Even guaranteeing confidence for the Tories to keep Torying would taint them in the eyes of some not-insignificant proportion of the electorate.
posted by acb at 11:30 AM on June 9 [9 favorites]


Like Boris, he also very clearly has his eyes on the highest prize - being PM.

Wow, Garius, I've really been enjoying your contributions to this thread. This is all fascinating stuff.
posted by Ziggy500 at 11:32 AM on June 9 [15 favorites]


Well London politics I can do - as my prediction of a Tory majority at the beginning of this thread shows though, I clearly know bugger all about the wider electorate!
posted by garius at 11:51 AM on June 9 [1 favorite]


Look, I know a lot of bleeding hearts are always appalled by the sight of the Conservative party in pursuit, as a wounded leader desperately tries to get back to its foxhole. But I’m afraid those hand-wringers simply don’t understand the traditions involved or the wonderful community bonds that are forged over the activity. Well done to May for supporting its return. (Guardian)
posted by walrus at 12:07 PM on June 9 [19 favorites]


Confirmed that Labour have taken Kensington by 20 votes.
posted by theseldomseenkid at 1:06 PM on June 9 [25 favorites]


Kensington. KENSINGTON. Bloody hell.
posted by Catseye at 1:11 PM on June 9 [11 favorites]




Wow.
posted by garius at 1:14 PM on June 9


HAAA HAAAA
posted by tel3path at 1:16 PM on June 9 [2 favorites]




And they presumably had to count it that carefully cuz they couldn't believe it.

HAAAA HAAAAA

make voting great again
posted by tel3path at 1:19 PM on June 9 [2 favorites]


theseldomseenkid: "Confirmed that Labour have taken Kensington by 20 votes."

I saw someone on Twitter say that the Conservatives finding out Kensington voted against them is like finding out that one of your own lungs voted against you.
posted by mhum at 1:19 PM on June 9 [17 favorites]


tel3path I saw an article quoting the Labour candidate from mid-today who said she'd won the first count and won the second count and then they'd paused the third count so everyone could sleep - so yeah, pretty much, clearly just the Tories refusing to accept it. Poor vote counters!

(My vote counting sympathies are largely with the people of Fife North East where the SNP held the seat by *two votes*. If I was counting votes there, I'd be so paranoid I'd had two papers stuck together or something. Arrrrrgh.)
posted by theseldomseenkid at 1:22 PM on June 9 [4 favorites]


Blair's Labour Party didn't win Kensington (& Chelsea). Didn't come anywhere near. But Corbyn's Labour just won it. I no longer understand anything about UK politics, but I've never been happier to be wrong.
posted by Catseye at 1:41 PM on June 9 [14 favorites]


Ruth Davidson, cont'd: "I was fairly straightforward with [May] and I told her that there were a number of things that count to me more than party. One of them is country, one of the others is LGBTI rights."

That's gonna be worth the fuck-all it's written on.
posted by Artw at 1:45 PM on June 9 [8 favorites]


Imperial College has a major campus in South Kensington.
posted by tel3path at 1:50 PM on June 9 [6 favorites]


You know despite all May's best efforts to make this end badly, I think it's not gonna end badly.

I had this intuition that Labour might win by a narrow margin or at least make a major impact that went beyond the "nearly winning" usual effect. Like, I had this intuition from the start.

I also thought that Brexit and Trump would win by narrow margins and they did.

So maybe this darkest hour is just before some sort of dawn or something.
posted by tel3path at 1:55 PM on June 9 [4 favorites]


I think May's going to cling on until everything is fucked but it's too late to stop.
posted by dng at 1:57 PM on June 9 [3 favorites]


The minority or narrow majority makes it very difficult for Theresa May's government to carry out legislative functions. But it doesn't make it much more difficult to carry out executive functions.

Passing controversial laws like encryption bans and human rights reductions has become vastly more difficult.

But as for executive functions, the Civil Service still takes all their orders from her ministers. If she has enough political capital in her party to hire and fire ministers, Theresa May still has total control of the executive. If an individual minister is powerful enough in the party that she doesn't dare fire him, power belongs to that minister.

Until the final deal comes up for a vote, negotiating Brexit is largely an executive function. Given that Labour and its MPs are now pro Brexit, it might not be hard for her to get a deal voted up. Unless the political climate changes, most MPs don't want to be seen as thwarting Brexit.

However, if the EU think she might lose power, they might not offer concessions in the hope of getting a more favourable opponent afterwards.

To some degree the Tory Brexiters might be using the election result to back away from elements of the negotiation that they've realised are unrealistic. They might be planning to retain more free movement and blame the DUP when their voters complain.

So it's hard to know what this means for Brexit. It could mean a softer Brexit. It could mean that with fewer concessions on offer from the EU, the Tories use their executive control to just run out the clock with no deal, and leave it for the tabloid enforcers to keep the House of Commons in line on any vote that happens.

But given that they seemed determined on an ultra-hard Brexit beforehand, it seems to me that things are no worse than before, and at least there's a possibility of them being better.
posted by TheophileEscargot at 1:57 PM on June 9 [10 favorites]


Ruth Davidson, cont'd: "I was fairly straightforward with [May] and I told her that there were a number of things that count to me more than party. One of them is country, one of the others is LGBTI rights."

Well like, then maybe she shouldn't be a fucking Tory, come the fuck on Davidson
posted by Automocar at 1:59 PM on June 9 [19 favorites]


(eta: clung on till everything FUBARed) She's already done that though.
posted by tel3path at 2:00 PM on June 9


Sinn Fein are saying that a Tory/DUP alliance would be in violation of the Good Friday agreement. But no worries, everybody: I'm sure if anyone's got the political savviness and advanced diplomatic skills needed to keep Northern Ireland from boiling over, it's Team May!
posted by Catseye at 2:07 PM on June 9 [29 favorites]


Here's one of the negotiators of the agreements going into a little bit more detail on that.
posted by Copronymus at 2:10 PM on June 9 [8 favorites]


So it's hard to know what this means for Brexit. It could mean a softer Brexit. It could mean that with fewer concessions on offer from the EU, the Tories use their executive control to just run out the clock with no deal, and leave it for the tabloid enforcers to keep the House of Commons in line on any vote that happens.

My general feeling is that every moment this trainwreck drags on is a moment closer to a "temporary" Norway-esque arrangement that turns out, in the long run, not to be so temporary. Here's hoping anyway.

Meanwhile, even though I'm not his biggest fan, I'm really loving Corbyn's political Columbo impression.

"Oh, sorry Mrs May. Before I go... just one more constituency..."
posted by garius at 2:17 PM on June 9 [25 favorites]


Ruth Davidson, cont'd: "I was fairly straightforward with [May] and I told her that there were a number of things that count to me more than party. One of them is country, one of the others is LGBTI rights."


And yet partnering with - and empowering - people who are actively denying basic human rights to LGBTI people in NI. I guess she gets a Tory prize for extending the "I'm Alright Jack" philosophy into a whole new arena.
posted by biffa at 2:40 PM on June 9 [7 favorites]




"Didn't they do well?" - a few results of the various fringe and "out there" candidates

* In Mid Sussex, Baron Von Thunderclap secured 464 votes, coming 6th out of 6.
* In Devizes, Jim Gunter of the Wessex Regionalists ("Devolution for Wessex") secured 223 votes, coming 6th out of 6.
* Across Yorkshire, the Yorkshire Party ("Ay up") ran on a manifesto of Yorkshireness. In Yorkshire East, Timothy Norman secured 1,015 votes, beating the Green Party.
* In Westmorland & Lonsdale, Mr Fishfinger secured 309 votes, coming 4th out of 4.
* In Blaydon, Lisabela Zxywhiddm Marschild secured 81 votes, coming 7th out of 7.
* In Nottingham East, David Bishop (Church of the Militant Elvis Party) secured 19 votes, coming 6th out of 6. n.b. the official statement of persons nominated gives a different party name but this clears it up.
* In Maidenhead, Lord Buckethead secured 249 votes, coming 7th out of 13.
* In Boston and Skegness, Paul Nuttall (recently resigned leader of UKIP) secured 3,308 votes, taking the UKIP share of the vote from 33.8% in 2015 to 7.7% in 2017.
posted by Wordshore at 2:47 PM on June 9 [21 favorites]


Democracy, eh? Bloody 'ell! ;-)

All my love right at ya, UK friends. Pleased to report that the quidnunc kid vote is steady at 0% (last election: 0%) and that's a solid base from which to ... send all my love right at ya, UK friends!
posted by the quidnunc kid at 2:56 PM on June 9 [10 favorites]


That was fast. Telegraph: Ruth Davidson planning Scottish Tory breakaway as she challenges Theresa May's Brexit plan

Forget what I said before Davidson, we're cool
posted by Automocar at 3:05 PM on June 9 [8 favorites]


What Jeremy Corbyn And The UK Election Should Teach Hillary Clinton — And Democrats
In the wake of a financial crisis, the public does not interpret centrist politics as an appeal to moderation or reasoned debate. It sees centrism as an attempt to rehabilitate the legitimacy of the aristocracy which has just pushed the country into disaster. "Countrymen, I have been approved by the finest minds of the old order as an eminently reasonable leader!" is a poor slogan when measured against "I will crush your enemies and restore your glory!"

A much better pitch? "I am on your team and will protect you." This works very well with promises to expand and improve social welfare programs. “I will break the cheating aristocrats who did this to you” can also be effective. In 1932, Franklin Delano Roosevelt put the Democratic Party in power for only the third time since the Civil War by campaigning on a combination of both messages.

Whatever the slogan, anti-authoritarian politicians need to make a clean break with what failed and offer a psychological alternative to authoritarianism’s call for order through violence and suspension of civil liberties.
posted by Joseph Gurl at 3:05 PM on June 9 [32 favorites]


"Didn't they do well?" - a few results of the various fringe and "out there" candidates

All infinitely better results than poor Paul Dennis in the 2015 local elections: "Rainham North Medway Council election candidate Paul Dennis receives zero votes despite voting for himself."
posted by effbot at 3:10 PM on June 9 [6 favorites]


Jonathan Pie, ladies and gentlemen. This is so fucken great. Brougth a giant shit-eating grin to my face at 7am on a Saturday morning, sitting in the office, haven't even made a coffee. So good.
posted by Joseph Gurl at 3:16 PM on June 9 [13 favorites]


That was fast. Telegraph: Ruth Davidson planning Scottish Tory breakaway as she challenges Theresa May's Brexit plan

Say what you like about the Tories, but they are way better at eating themselves than we (Labour) are. It's sort of impressive. Weirdly.
posted by garius at 3:22 PM on June 9 [4 favorites]


Forget what I said before Davidson, we're cool

Except the article says "its 13 MPs would take the Tory whip at the Commons."

So, she (and they) would still be compelled to vote the party line.
posted by GeckoDundee at 3:23 PM on June 9 [1 favorite]


> "They'd never live it down. The progressive/left-of-centre parties are competing for non-Tory voters, and any association with the Tories would irrevocably tarnish their brand."

This. If you're American, how would you feel about a Democrat who took a cabinet post in the Trump administration? You're basically asking why a whole political party doesn't do that.
posted by kyrademon at 3:46 PM on June 9 [1 favorite]


Kensington. KENSINGTON. Bloody hell.

My hypothesis: in the super-prime areas, many of the ordinary Tory-voting rich have been displaced by non-voting foreign oligarchs, cutting into the Tories' natural buffer.

Are there any public statistics on the size of electoral rolls in electorates year over year that could be used to check this?
posted by acb at 3:50 PM on June 9 [3 favorites]


*thready exhale punctuated by nervous, disbelieving laughter about the whole thing*
posted by Ten Cold Hot Dogs at 4:01 PM on June 9


That was fast. Telegraph: Ruth Davidson planning Scottish Tory breakaway as she challenges Theresa May's Brexit plan

Erm - Ruth herself has a choice word to say about the veracity of that Telegraph story. She just Tweeted it with the comment: "B****cks. Folk might remember I fought a leadership election on the other side of that particular argument...."
posted by penguin pie at 4:08 PM on June 9 [4 favorites]


Given the 'bawbag' confusion about 10 hours upthread, I should have posted that with a translation for our non-British readers. B****cks = Bollocks = testicles = in this context "total rubbish".
posted by penguin pie at 4:13 PM on June 9


> Ruth Davidson on the DUP coalition plans: As a Protestant Unionist about to marry an Irish Catholic...

A Mixed Marriage! o.O
posted by Morfil Ffyrnig at 4:16 PM on June 9 [2 favorites]


B****cks = Bollocks = testicles = in this context "total rubbish".

Bollocks was also the theme for the previous UK election thread: Bollocks, that's bollocks!
posted by effbot at 4:36 PM on June 9


never mind the bollocks here's the brex pistols
posted by delfin at 5:14 PM on June 9 [20 favorites]


man that is so rad, i wish exclaiming "Balls!" was more of a thing in American English
posted by indubitable at 5:43 PM on June 9


man that is so rad, i wish exclaiming "Balls!" was more of a thing in American English

Deez Nuts would like a word.
posted by Joseph Gurl at 5:47 PM on June 9 [1 favorite]


Bill Clinton branded Jeremy Corbyn 'maddest person in the room', leaked speech reveals
Bill Clinton branded Labour’s Jeremy Corbyn the "maddest person in the room" in a speech he gave explaining the resurgence of left-wing politics in Europe and America.

Documents released by Wikileaks show the former President joked that when Mr Corbyn won his leadership contest, it appeared Labour had just "got a guy off the street" to run the party.
posted by Joseph Gurl at 5:56 PM on June 9 [4 favorites]


Joseph Gurl: "Bill Clinton branded Jeremy Corbyn 'maddest person in the room', leaked speech reveals"

For the sake of clarity, I believe from the context of the last excerpt that Clinton was using "maddest" in the N. American usage as a synonym for "angriest" not "craziest":
Mr Clinton added: "But what that is reflective of – the same thing happened in the Greek election – when people feel they’ve been shafted and they don’t expect anything to happen anyway, they just want the maddest person in the room to represent them."
The "guy off the street" part could cause some confusion, i.e.: I don't think he was comparing Corbyn to a mentally ill homeless person.
posted by mhum at 6:08 PM on June 9 [11 favorites]


Agreed, but he was making a statement that Corbyn isn't among the traditional ruling elite, the class he expects (wants? I think so) to hold power in general.
posted by Joseph Gurl at 6:14 PM on June 9 [4 favorites]


We were told Corbyn was ‘unelectable’. Then came the surge
The principal problem with the notion of electability is that it is promoted on the premise that what has not been tried cannot possibly succeed. It suggests the way people see the world at any given moment cannot be changed through argument and activism and instead erects borders for what is permissible discussion and polices them determinedly. Those who dream outside those borders are utopian; those who speak outside them are fools.
posted by Joseph Gurl at 6:28 PM on June 9 [21 favorites]


I seem to remember even Metafilter piling on the "Corbyn is unelectable" train. Let's see... "electoral cut through of a soaked baguette"... "such a prize idiot"... "thick"... " a terrible case of Richard Dawkins disease which manifests whenever he opens his mouth"... "an atrocious leader of Labour"... etc.
posted by clawsoon at 7:03 PM on June 9 [11 favorites]


Here's a fun one from The Guardian: According to their focus groups, the impression of Labour between 2015 and 2017 changed from "salmon en croute with craft beer" to "spaghetti bolognese or egg and chips".
posted by clawsoon at 9:22 PM on June 9 [3 favorites]


I've been catching up on the reasons behind the SNP's losses, but I haven't been able to find much of an analysis as to why the SDLP vote collapsed. Even though they only held three seats, given Sinn Féin's abstentionism it does mean that now there's no N. Irish counterweight to the awful DUP in Parliament. Any thoughts or suggested readings on this score?
posted by the return of the thin white sock at 10:09 PM on June 9 [1 favorite]


My guess is that the SDLP's main identity was as the nationalist party that rejected violence, and as the association between Sinn Fein and violence recedes, it's not really clear what the SDLP specifically has to offer. If you're going to vote for a nationalist party, you might as well vote Sinn Fein, and if you don't care that much about nationalism, you might consider voting for someone else. (Does anyone actually vote for Alliance?) And I wonder if people in NI's political loyalties are more focused on NI politics than U.K. politics, so they don't care about those votes meaning they won't be represented in Westminster.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 10:45 PM on June 9 [2 favorites]


And I wonder if people in NI's political loyalties are more focused on NI politics than U.K. politics, so they don't care about those votes meaning they won't be represented in Westminster.

But considering Northern Ireland voted so strongly against Brexit in the referendum, my assumption would have been just the opposite -- i.e., NI nationalists who voted Remain last year would have been more inclined (not less) to want representation in Westminster this time around.

Given that NI is now just about cleanly split between DUP and Sinn Fein (the UUP also having lost their seats, with one Independent hanging on), I guess I'm reading the situation as somewhat of a return to an Us vs. Them political mindset as compared to 2015, but I'm curious as to what the specific reasons are for that and how Brexit factors into it.
posted by the return of the thin white sock at 11:28 PM on June 9 [1 favorite]


I seem to remember even Metafilter piling on the "Corbyn is unelectable" train

This was absolutely a thing, to the point I shied off UK politics threads. A lot came from non UK users, I think, but still..
posted by ominous_paws at 11:39 PM on June 9 [12 favorites]


Corbyn's three line whip on the article 50 vote to court ex-Labour Kippers was the breaking point for me.

Turns out he was right.

Not sure how I feel about that but Kensington and Chelsea voting Labour is hilarious enough to take the edge off it a bit.
posted by fullerine at 11:52 PM on June 9 [6 favorites]


With regards to the SDLP, who I used to work for, ArbitraryAndCapricious basically has it. It's a long term trend that the SDLP failed to deal with, just as they failed to deal with it in the Northern Irish Assembly elections.

In particular, I'm really sad Mark Durkan lost his seat in Foyle, he's a wonderful man who did a great job in Westminster.

If I have time, I'll try to write a little more on this later.
posted by knapah at 11:52 PM on June 9 [4 favorites]


I didn't vote Labour because I thought Corbyn was great; I didn't have strong opinions about him either way.

However in circumstances like these, if May calls an election it's clearly our big chance to get her out, so what would you have me do? Normally I'd say vote for your preferred party, however small, because resigning yourself to a two party system is the definition of a self fulfilling prophecy.

I wanted the Lib Dems because they're anti Brexit and the only ones proposing to not go through with it. But I knew if I voted for them I might as well vote Tory. And plenty of people will never forgive them for entering into a coalition with the Tories.

So Labour it was. Then Corbyn came out with some good proposals which he'd worked out the budget for. Those things, like not having tuition fees etc, some are things we had in the past and will do well to have again. And his expenses record s show he's careful with public money and not extravagant himself. He seems pretty honest really.

Which doesn't mean he'd be a great or even competent national leader. But FFS, is he likely to be worse than May or any Tory you can shake a stick at? Of course not.

So my only real option was to give him a go. I don't care what wing he's on, he's better than a Tory and talks sense enough when you bother to listen.
posted by tel3path at 12:24 AM on June 10 [19 favorites]


The knives are coming out already - this piece from former Director of Comms, Katie Perrior, was published in the Times today (a Murdoch paper, remember). If paywalled, here's a tweet with highlights. Perrior is gunning for senior members of staff, but it's pretty clear that she's coming for May and implicitly calling her out for arrogant, abusive behaviour.

Tick, tock.
posted by kariebookish at 1:30 AM on June 10 [3 favorites]


Financial Times: How the UK voted in 7 charts

Resolution Foundation: How important was Brexit? (with more charts)

and bonus Ulster Fry: DUP wishlist in full!
posted by Catseye at 2:46 AM on June 10 [2 favorites]


Wondering if the Queen's speech to open parliament will make reference to a "War on Line Dancing".
posted by Wordshore at 2:49 AM on June 10 [2 favorites]


I'm half expecting May to not last the weekend tbh. Even if she does, I'm not sure she'll be able to pass a budget, and I doubt she'll last the summer. The DUP is a shit show, aside from their terrible dinosaur disbelieving views, power sharing collapsed because of their misuse of public money. For chrissakes, this can't be something that was unknown to the UK prime minister.

It shocks me how little English people know about NI, I used to work there occasionally a few years ago, and this seems to have pushed me into expert territory. I know barely anything.

I don't like Jeremy Corbyn. He's pulled it off this election, fair play to him. He seems a very old school socialist, and not great at working with others who don't share his ideological purity. He doesn't have a great track record on equality issues, but many young black British people I know are all over him. And I trust them on most things, so I'm going to try and trust them on this. Like tel3path says, he's our only choice right now. I just hope he's up to the job.
posted by Helga-woo at 3:32 AM on June 10 [3 favorites]


Corbyn's unelectability has been such a staple of recent politics that I'm actually doing a double take to realise that he only became leader *after* the last General Election. Was the Miliband era really only two years ago? I feel like Corbyn's been there, hanging on but embattled, for way longer than that.

I guess he did come through Brexit but didn't exactly shine then as he's not the most enthusiastic pro-European.

It's a sign of how much of a given his unelectability has been, that him only just losing an election is seen as a massive political earthquake!

My first newspaper reporter job was in Islington, around 2000/01 and I spent 15 years after that citing him to people as the archetypal career back bencher. I still think that was the case for most of that time. If you could have told 2014 JC he was going to be in this position he would have been as dumbfounded as anyone.
posted by penguin pie at 3:36 AM on June 10 [9 favorites]


The time dilation is very odd. In 2010 Gordon Brown came to Bradford University on the campaign trail. It was a strange setup but he got a very good reception. I'm sure the memory of that was at least partly responsible for them doing the manifesto launch here this time round. It was in the same space, and I was stood on the balcony looking down on it thinking of all the things that have happened since then. I still think of that space as new.
posted by vbfg at 3:51 AM on June 10 [3 favorites]




OK, so some thoughts on the election result, roughly divided.

The Good
  • Theresa May's plans for horrific legislation: banning encryption, suspending human rights, are now vastly more difficult for her to pass. That tiny majority could be derailed by even a handful of rebels action on principle, or in response to a juicy donation from a tech company
  • The power of the right-wing press has been exposed as greatly diminished. As we've seen so many times with Neil Kinnock, Gordon Brown, Ed Miliband (but not the Other Guy who cosied up to the owners) they threw a torrent of abuse against Jeremy Corbyn. This time though instead of sinking in the polls, Corbyn steadily rose. Falling circulations finally mean that they don't decide elections anymore.
  • At long last the right wing of the Parliamentary Labour Party seem to be dimly waking to the idea that in an era of populist, anti-establishment sentiment; having a populist, anti-establishment leader could be kind of handy.
  • Lynton Crosby's tactics have again shown their limits outside his native Australia. Without compulsory voting it helps to have a positive message to motivate your supporters to actually show up. There were similar problems with his Michael Howard campaign.
The Bad
  • Theresa May's Conservatives still control the executive functions of government. That includes most of the practical Brexit negotiations (though there will be some kind of vote at the very end). They still have a great deal of power.
  • I'm still bitter about the PLP's moronic stunts like the serial resignations, the constitutionally meaningless "vote of no confidence". Without them weakening Labour, they'd probably be forming a government now.
  • The Conservatives aren't dumb and will be working to make sure the voters who humiliated them don't show up again. They've already been taking lessons from the US right: dodgy redistricting and photo IDs for voting were part of their plans, and they'll do their best to accelerate them. The neutrality rules for broadcasters also are an opportunity cost. (The Labour campaign explicitly relied on them staying relatively if not perfectly neutral). With the Daily Mail reduced, they might try to weaken broadcasting rules to get themselves a British Fox News.
  • Next time the Conservative leader is likely to be a much stronger media performer, with a much more appealing manifesto not primarily designed to justify ideological state-shrinking. Labour did well to increase their vote, both in share and in absolute numbers, but need to do even better.
The Ugly?
  • Some on the Labour right still have a reluctance to look at data that contradicts what they prefer to believe. The data always said Jeremy Corbyn's policies were popular with the public. Poll matchups always showed him doing better than his leadership rivals. But they didn't want to believe mere data that contradicted their gut feeling that Corbyn was hopelessly unelectable. We saw the same thing with Democrats refusal to accept Hillary Clinton's precariously narrow poll lead. But even now some are lamenting that could have done better with one of the "mainstream" candidates. We've got to stop accepting subjective prejudices about "electability" that aren't backed up by data.
posted by TheophileEscargot at 4:44 AM on June 10 [19 favorites]


Timothy and Hill have just resigned. May's throwing her special advisers under the bus to try and avoid a leadership challenge on Monday.
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 5:25 AM on June 10 [3 favorites]


the BBC's Newsnight opening was brilliant.

BBC Worldservice (radio) has recently started to include this kind of soundbites/"meaningful" music segment in some of its news programmes. I find such infotainment very irritating. I just wish they'd get on with reporting the news.
posted by Mister Bijou at 5:46 AM on June 10 [2 favorites]


not great at working with others who don't share his ideological purity.

Compared to May, a malfunctioning Dalek who blue-screens every time she is not in control, he's Barack Obama.
posted by acb at 5:46 AM on June 10 [4 favorites]


Compared to May, a malfunctioning Dalek

Aye, you'll find no argument from me there. But he's going to need to work well with other parties right now, and he has a track record of not working well even with different wings within his own party. My experience of Labour in general is that they're not great at working with others.

Hope, hope is all I have.
posted by Helga-woo at 5:59 AM on June 10


This was absolutely a thing, to the point I shied off UK politics threads. A lot came from non UK users, I think, but still..

I guess you're referring to me again (it's not the first time you're doing this "certain non UK users" thing), so feel free to use my username. It may come as a surprise, but a lot of people outside the UK have connections to the country, can read English, and are perfectly capable of having opinions :-)

And my opinion of Corbyn stands; he's a not very bright guy who got most of his political thinking out of a leaflet he stumbled upon in the early seventies and has spent much of his time since hanging out with some seriously nasty people, some of which are now in his inner circle despite having no history in Labour. This isn't something I'm just making up only because I don't think people stuck in the seventies should run countries; it's extensively documented, and won't change just because someone on the Internet thinks foreigners should shut up and go home.

(...as for electability, note that Labour didn't actually win the election; the seat numbers are about the same as for Brown and the 2.5pp difference roughly where the polls were last summer. Heck, last time anyone got more popular votes than May in this election was when Major set the record 25 years ago...)
posted by effbot at 6:05 AM on June 10 [2 favorites]


The Poet Laureate Carol Ann Duffy has weighed in: Campaign
posted by hawthorne at 6:13 AM on June 10 [4 favorites]


The DUP deal is more of a train wreck than most pundits have realized.

One of the core principles of the process arising from the Good Friday Agreement is that the Westminster government would be politically neutral in the government of Northern Ireland. That's now broken. NI Republicans will see this as a kick in the teeth.

One of the thornier problems of Brexit is the NI/RoI border. It's a deeply complex issue. What is clear is that almost everyone in the North, and a large majority in the South, would like an open border, as they have now. Except the DUP. They would prefer something a lot nastier. The sentiment in the North will be that a minority of bigots has been given carte blanche to fuck up the future of them all.

The majority in Northern Ireland are going to feel shockingly betrayed by this move. Most Unionists will be unhappy with Westminster becoming a partisan in the situation. Republicans will see it as betraying a farce of artificial neutrality.

The Government of the Republic will see it as politically naive and ill-considered.

May has traded the future prosperity, security and future of Northern Ireland for a few months of executive authority. History will not judge her kindly.
posted by Combat Wombat at 6:15 AM on June 10 [25 favorites]


I guess you're referring to me again

I was neither referring to nor thinking of you; the timescale for my feeling this spans at least a year. Knowing that someone is tracking my posts in this way does not, however, make me feel any more comfortable in these threads, so thank you for that.
posted by ominous_paws at 6:21 AM on June 10 [13 favorites]


Except the DUP. They would prefer something a lot nastier. The sentiment in the North will be that a minority of bigots has been given carte blanche to fuck up the future of them all.

What? No. If there's one thing the DUP is stopped clock on it's that they want a frictionless border with Ireland as part of the exit deal.
posted by Talez at 6:22 AM on June 10 [5 favorites]




6kb of Semtex found in Dublin.

Perhaps May's plan is to goad the IRA into resuming its bombing campaign and then pin it on Corbyn. Presto: he becomes unelectable, and the government has a pretext for additional authoritarian measures (the locked-down national intranet, ban on cryptography, detention without trial, and such).
posted by acb at 6:41 AM on June 10 [2 favorites]



One of the thornier problems of Brexit is the NI/RoI border. It's a deeply complex issue. What is clear is that almost everyone in the North, and a large majority in the South, would like an open border, as they have now. Except the DUP. They would prefer something a lot nastier. The sentiment in the North will be that a minority of bigots has been given carte blanche to fuck up the future of them all


As Tale says, this is not true at all. The DUP want an open border.
posted by knapah at 6:43 AM on June 10 [2 favorites]


As Tale says, this is not true at all. The DUP want an open border.
I stand corrected! The DUP wants an open border with the Republic as a matter of manifesto policy. Thanks for the correction. They are, however, also staunch supporters of Brexit.

The EU has made it very clear that there can't be an open border, for very obvious reasons, so being supporters of Brexit and proponents of an open border is an unreaslistic, idealistic and frankly ridiculous proposition. I think that's where my error arose.

My main point - and I think it will prove to be a difficult one - is that by entering into a formal alliance with a partisan faction in Northern Ireland, the Westminster Government has betrayed a core underlying principle of the Good Friday process, and that's going to piss a lot of people off.

Some of those people have long memories of less happy times. The long plan in Northern Ireland was to maintain political peace for long enough for memories of political violence to fade.

Theresa May is not helping.

She should have told the DUP to piss up a rope, and governed from a minority.
posted by Combat Wombat at 6:55 AM on June 10 [3 favorites]


What? No. If there's one thing the DUP is stopped clock on it's that they want a frictionless border with Ireland as part of the exit deal.

I am no kind of expert on this, but as far as I can tell the DUP seem to want a number of things:

1) Brexit
2) immigration controls
3) no hard border between RoI and N.I.
4) no hard border between N.I. and the rest of the UK
5) no special status for N.I. as part of Brexit -- if the UK's out they want out

You cannot have all these things. You can have
1, 3, 4 and 5 but not 2, or
1, 2, and 5 but not either 3 or 4, or
1, 2, 3, and 4 but not 5.

It's not at all clear to me how the DUP would prioritize these various policies, but I suspect that 3's at the bottom, which is not where the majority in N.I. would put it.

I mean, if May's out in 6 months it probably doesn't matter what DUP's priorities are. But her 12 months of bullshit, pabulum and water-treading have been for the purpose of obfuscating these irreconcilable conflicts. At some point the rubber's got to meet the road.
posted by Diablevert at 6:58 AM on June 10 [10 favorites]


Perhaps May's plan is to goad the IRA into resuming its bombing campaign and then pin it on Corbyn.

May being incompetent enough to let terrorist attacks happen and then getting everyone to rally around her when they do does not seem to be a thing that works out for her.
posted by Artw at 6:59 AM on June 10 [7 favorites]


Some of those people have long memories of less happy times.
Much focus will now fall upon the [DUP’s] leader, Arlene Foster, a tough character whose politics were influenced by the Troubles. At the age of eight, her father, a part-time policeman, was shot and injured by the IRA on the family farm.

In 1988 a bomb exploded under the teenager’s school bus while it was being driven by a part-time soldier in the British army’s Ulster Defence Regiment.
From climate denial to abortion: six DUP stances you should know about (Gruaniad)
posted by Mister Bijou at 7:02 AM on June 10 [4 favorites]


It's not at all clear to me how the DUP would prioritize these various policies, but I suspect that 3's at the bottom, which is not where the majority in N.I. would put it.

It would be courageous (in the Sir Humphrey sense) for the DUP to just nuke the Good Friday Agreement.
posted by jaduncan at 7:09 AM on June 10


WHAT THE HELL IS THIS, part 487. Robert Peston reporting on his Facebook page:
Theresa May is trying to persuade the ten DUP MPs to enter into a formal coalition agreement with the Tories, as opposed to a less formal "confidence and supply" arrangement, ministers tell me

The prime minister has sent a team of officials, led by her chief whip, Gavin Williamson, to Belfast to negotiate the details of an alliance with the DUP.
There are not even any words for how terrible an idea that is. A confidence and supply agreement is bad enough, but they're actually going to form a government with the DUP? What the hell are they DOING?
posted by Catseye at 7:09 AM on June 10 [11 favorites]


If Theresa May is still in control by this time next week, I will be very, very surprised.

🎶 This shit is bananas. B-A-N-A-N-A-S. 🎶
posted by Happy Dave at 7:14 AM on June 10 [10 favorites]


Welcome to the offices of the Democratic Unionist Party. If you're talking to us, your career must be in trouble.
posted by Grangousier at 7:18 AM on June 10 [19 favorites]


The charitable part of me wants to say that they're desperately panicking, but a steadfast refusal to engage with reality has been the defining feature of May's leadership of the Tory party so far. I really think they're just too selfish to govern, and too stupid to understand that governing is an actual responsibility, which requires you to have some level of competence if you want to be allowed to continue. It's not actually enough just to make Rupert Murdoch and Paul Dacre happy. Their horrific symbiotic relationship with the right wing press has allowed the Tory party to think that they can get away with anything as long as it's fucked up and selfish enough, and May, being the dimwit she is, isn't able to read the writing on the wall.
posted by howfar at 7:20 AM on June 10 [7 favorites]


but a steadfast refusal to engage with reality has been the defining feature of May's leadership of the Tory party so far.

Trump is rubbing off on her.

Hell, she's still going to embark on her steamrolling of remaining civil liberties and thinks her government is going to provide stability.

I know she's probably trying to carry on but she only looks delusional at this point.
posted by Talez at 7:31 AM on June 10 [2 favorites]


Scotland's The Herald newspaper front page, a candidate for inclusion in Private Eye's "Malgorithm" column?

The Herald
posted by Mister Bijou at 7:36 AM on June 10 [2 favorites]


Heh, someone on Reddit pointed out that Brussels are going to get the Conservative and Unionist Negotiating Team. Couldn't be more perfect given the circumstances.
posted by Talez at 7:36 AM on June 10


Yeah, that sounds like a Reddit joke.
posted by Pope Guilty at 7:41 AM on June 10 [9 favorites]


Also featured on last night's The Last Leg.
posted by mushhushshu at 8:15 AM on June 10 [1 favorite]


It's also all over Twitter. I'm personally not a huge fan of it as it plays into the misogyny now so pervasive and directed at female politicians (mostly notably Diane Abbott in recent days, and I've seen it aimed squarely at Arlene Forster this morning). We should and can be better than using words derived from women's bodies as slurs.
posted by kariebookish at 8:19 AM on June 10 [21 favorites]


Here's a (*sigh*) thread of Tweets that offers some insight on the deteriorating situation in Northern Ireland. I'm an outsider so this was news to me and paints a pretty dire picture.
posted by indubitable at 8:41 AM on June 10 [28 favorites]


Getting into bed with the DUP is like pulling the pin on a hand grenade and then walking around with it saying “look, it’s perfectly safe, I can put the pin back any time”. Sure, but you’re also one slip away from an explosion of violence.

But it’s all of a piece with the *total* ignorance and lack of interest in the effect of Brexit on NI & the peace process displayed by the Brexiteers.
posted by pharm at 8:58 AM on June 10 [11 favorites]


Kensington is fascinating. Centuries of old money voting Tory, gradually pushed out by Russian oligarchs and non-domiciled millionaires who haven't got a vote there.

Also: 1200 students in the Imperial College halls of residence in Prince's Gardens and Prince Consort Road.
posted by We had a deal, Kyle at 9:18 AM on June 10 [4 favorites]


Though 67% of Imperial's intake is international students, so a lot of them can't vote. The overall swing and increase in voter turnout for Kensington was more than ~400 students, so there are probably other factors. I think since the boundaries shifted in 2010, the Chelsea and Fulham constituency got more of the unabashedly posh bits, whereas the Kensington constituency contains a lot of the social housing in the borough.
posted by theseldomseenkid at 9:30 AM on June 10 [2 favorites]


Politics expert Matthew Goodwin eats his book live on Sky News

(According to a Sky producer on twitter he didn't actually eat it)
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 11:07 AM on June 10 [1 favorite]


I've noticed UKIP didn't field a candidate, either. Considering there was a trend where a part of UKIP voters didn't flee to the Tories, but likely went back to Labour, this could have played another small (2015 candidate had something around 1500 votes) part in the shift. I wonder if May's own goal was underestimating the percentage of UKIP voters that were NuLabour-disfranchised working class as opposed to anti-EU conservatives.
posted by lmfsilva at 11:18 AM on June 10


DUP announce confidence and supply deal with Conservatives. So not a coalition thankfully, but there aren't many other silver linings to find from that.
posted by Catseye at 11:38 AM on June 10 [1 favorite]


Well, I think the silver lining is that they have now entirely conceded the centre ground of British politics on all social issues, while still being almost entirely unable to push through their right-wing agenda. That'll do me.
posted by howfar at 12:03 PM on June 10 [4 favorites]


Except that all it takes to block any legislation is five rebel Tories. I can guarantee many, many more than that do not like the DUP...
posted by Devonian at 12:06 PM on June 10 [2 favorites]


Don't see how this lasts.
posted by Ironmouth at 12:19 PM on June 10 [1 favorite]


Don't see how this lasts

I, like you, do not believe it will. For all sorts of reasons. The question of Brexit is, of course, the thorniest one. There remain a good number of genuinely passionate pro-Europeans in the parliamentary​ Tory party, most notably Clarke, of course, but there are a plenty of others. Now, you can whip a bit, but you can't whip hard without a minority and a confidence and supply agreement that keeps your government functional by the skin of its teeth. How May can hope to retain credibility if she tries to go into exit negotiations without even being able to guarantee she can avoid the deal being prevented by Parliament (remember that the legislature in Britain can always take power back from the executive with a single simple majority vote)? It's just not possible. She can't "get to work", no matter what she deludes herself into thinking is possible.

But it's not just Brexit. Fault lines could open up anywhere. Social justice issues could develop into a rift if Arlene and her vile bullies start opening their mouths about things that most people in the UK disagree with them about - most notably sexuality and women's rights, I think. May might be willing for the Tories to go back to being the nasty party in order to hang on to power, but the changes that Cameron led on some social issues were not wholly cosmetic. Just as a matter of personal identification, there are 4 (I think?) Tory MPs who identify as gay, lesbian or bisexual. I'm sure they're used to dealing with the barely repressed homophobia of many of their Tory colleagues, and of course sexuality does not define how people choose to vote or what they choose to support, but given all the straight identifying Tory MPs who aren't bigots on this issue, you can see how a hugely damaging row might emerge very quickly​ if the DUP start throwing their weight around.

Those are just two of the things that occur to me off the top of my head. Who knows where the actual fault lines will emerge, but they will emerge. It's a cowardly and self-serving betrayal of our country for May to piss away time like this, when the clock is ticking on the single most complex agenda of negotiation and legislation that the UK has ever faced. It's despicable, and it will collapse, but what a fucking mess they're making in the meantime​.
posted by howfar at 1:21 PM on June 10 [11 favorites]


Here's a (*sigh*) thread of Tweets that offers some insight on the deteriorating situation in Northern Ireland.

Thanks so much for posting this, indubitable -- very, very helpful. As an outsider, I was aware of the basic outlines of the Arlene Foster scandal, but I wasn't fully aware of the broader context of the collapse of power-sharing and ensuing paralysis.
posted by the return of the thin white sock at 1:28 PM on June 10


I'm liking the reports that the Tories told May that a formal coalition with the DUP was unacceptable because of its takes on climate change. LGBQT equality, social justice, etc.

Makes you realise how skewed US politics is.
posted by Devonian at 1:33 PM on June 10 [6 favorites]


But it's not just Brexit. Fault lines could open up anywhere.

Not to mention that joining forces with the DUP seems like a pretty clear breach of (the spirit of) the Good Friday agreement, especially considering the currently deadlocked state of the power sharing arrangement.

Basically it seems like Theresa May is determined to destroy absolutely everything so she can carry out the "will of the people", whatever that actually is anymore. It's fucking insane
posted by dng at 1:33 PM on June 10 [11 favorites]


Just as a matter of personal identification, there are 4 (I think?) Tory MPs who identify as gay, lesbian or bisexual.

There are now 19 out LGBTQ Tory MPs, plus Ruth Davidson as Scottish leader.
posted by penguinliz at 1:37 PM on June 10 [13 favorites]


If there's one thing I remember from growing up in the early 90s, it's that there's no party like the Tories for infighting, backstabbing and machinations. And that was when they had a workable majority.
posted by Happy Dave at 1:39 PM on June 10 [1 favorite]


There are now 19 out LGBTQ Tory MPs, plus Ruth Davidson as Scottish leader.

Christ. I didn't realise quite how much things have changed over recent years (and days). Thank you for correcting me!
posted by howfar at 1:39 PM on June 10 [3 favorites]


As an ignorant Yankee watching from across the pond, can anyone reconcile the statements from Ruth Davidson regarding Scottish Tory values, the chaos in North Ireland and how confidence and supply with DUP is even short term tenable in this environment? Or is it as irreconcilable as it seems?
posted by meinvt at 1:45 PM on June 10


I had no idea until you posted that thread, indubitable, about the Cash for Ash scandal (more from Wikipedia) that Arlene Foster oversaw: a renewable energy promotion scheme with no cap that amounted to just outright paying people to use more energy.

Some days I suspect Iannucci wonders why he even needs to get out of bed with reality being this incompetent.
posted by zachlipton at 1:45 PM on June 10 [3 favorites]


It's not necessarily as irreconcilable as it seems. It just needs the DUP to pick their battles and be reasonable.

Here's Ian Paisley shouting at the pope with a never ending supply of abusive posters in his pocket.
posted by vbfg at 1:49 PM on June 10 [6 favorites]


Or is it as irreconcilable as it seems?

Pretty much. This isn't so much a house of cards as a house of half-shredded party flyers, soaked in petrol, surrounded by sparking electrical wires.
posted by Happy Dave at 1:51 PM on June 10 [1 favorite]


Here's Ian Paisley shouting at the pope with a never ending supply of abusive posters in his pocket

So much shade: "The Pope, waiting with a text which spoke of Europe as the beacon of civilization, looked on with faint amusement."
posted by zachlipton at 1:56 PM on June 10 [3 favorites]


Hunting around some more re: N. Ireland, I found this article at Foreign Policy pretty illuminating. The key point for me in understanding what's happened is this:
The collapse of the government [in the wake of the Foster scandal] triggered an election in early March. The vote took place in the shadow of a Brexit campaign that has raised deep-seated fears and divisions in Northern Ireland — about the potential implications of a new, hard border with the Republic of Ireland, but also about the potential loss of funding for community-building projects, much of which necessarily comes from the European Union because money from London or Dublin might be seen as partisan.

Lingering bitterness over the Brexit campaign bled into the March vote: Sinn Fein, the largest nationalist party, had campaigned openly in favor of the U.K. remaining a part of the EU and cast the decision to leave as yet more evidence of England overriding the interests of Northern Ireland. The DUP, for its part, had backed Brexit as a necessity for regaining British sovereignty. Both the DUP and Sinn Fein urged voters from across the North to vote on the basis of being unionists or republicans, and to endorse the two hard-line parties accordingly, rather than their more moderate counterparts (the Ulster Unionist Party and the Social Democratic and Labour Party, respectively).
posted by the return of the thin white sock at 2:04 PM on June 10 [2 favorites]


If this has already been linked here, forgive me; I did look back in the thread a bit.

Anthony Lane in The New Yorker: The Book Of Jeremy Corbyn.
posted by hippybear at 2:05 PM on June 10 [4 favorites]


Ah that brought back memories. What it was to turn on the telly and see Ian Paisley's shouting face. Or Maggie Thatcher's gimlet eyes and the various Tory gobs of flab who professed to find her "sexy" (am I kinkshaming? hashtag sorry not sorry).

Remember when the very concept of gay marriage was considered extremist? I do. Times *have* changed for the better in many ways.

If only Labour would implement their free tuition and free chocolate on Fridays plan and build lots of social housing (and land tax but it's only the fringe Youth Party that's proposing that) then everything would be perfect.

Except Brexit.

shit i made myself sad
posted by tel3path at 2:08 PM on June 10 [7 favorites]


Just seen on Twitter:

On who would make best Prime Minister:

T. May: 39% (-4)
J. Corbyn: 39% (+7)

(via @YouGov & @ShippersUnbound / 09 - 10 Jun)
Chgs. w/ 07 Jun
posted by Ironmouth at 2:29 PM on June 10 [4 favorites]




I love Dr Tingle's prompt explanation of why his new work refers to 'England' rather than 'The United Kingdom'.
posted by Major Clanger at 2:45 PM on June 10 [16 favorites]


Be more interesting to see Jezza v BoJo PM polling...
posted by Devonian at 2:54 PM on June 10


TIL that Chuck Tingle's books occur in a single universe with consistent canon.
posted by oneswellfoop at 2:57 PM on June 10 [4 favorites]




Irish Times - Contradictions and denials
The Brexit position of the DUP – who will be relied on to support the new government – neatly sums up the contradictions and denials that lie behind the Brexit jargon. The DUP is for Brexit but wants a frictionless Irish Border.
From before the polls: History haunts this place: how Brexit is fuelling Ireland's sectarian debate.
posted by adamvasco at 3:02 PM on June 10


Thanks for the Northern Ireland context, discussion of it has been sadly missing from the past year or so of UK political coverage over here and ugggggh I am even more nervous now.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 3:31 PM on June 10 [4 favorites]


Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 45% (+5)
CON: 39% (-3)
LDEM: 7% (-)
UKIP: 3% (+1)

(via @Survation / 10 Jun)
Chgs. w/ GE2017

In the history books they will call this the Crisis of the Early 20th Century, even though it started in the mid-Eighties.
posted by Ironmouth at 4:04 PM on June 10 [1 favorite]


It doesn't really get discussed in UK political coverage either. There is a surprising and honestly shameful lack of awareness or interest in most of politics in the U.K. outside England, and while this is annoying enough for us here in Scotland it's even worse for NI. I was trying to watch the coverage of the last NI elections in the BBC Politics channel and even they kept cutting away to cover something else entirely as the votes were coming in, as if even a channel whose entire purpose is to cover UK politics can't really be bothered with Northern Ireland. This is how we've ended up with a year of Brexit coverage 24/7 where hardly anyone in politics or media has even mentioned Northern Ireland, and how cosying up to the DUP could start to seem like even a remotely good idea for a U.K. government. It is ridiculous and shameful and we should do better.
posted by Catseye at 4:05 PM on June 10 [19 favorites]


There's more:

Following the GE result, Theresa May...

Should resign as Prime Minister: 49%
Should not resign as Prime Minister: 38%

(Survation / 10 Jun)
posted by Ironmouth at 4:08 PM on June 10 [1 favorite]


I wonder if SF will abandon abstemptionim. Seems a good time.
posted by Ironmouth at 4:10 PM on June 10 [1 favorite]


[Guys, don't go after each other nastily either directly or by subtweeting their comments. Engage directly with ideas, not by attacking the other poster. If another user is hassling you, contact the mods and we'll help.]
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 4:20 PM on June 10 [2 favorites]


Mohammad Salemy:
For the first time in my memory, the centrists in a left wing party were forced to shut up, accept the leadership of a socialist, campaign for his agenda, and see the party does better than before. This hopefully will change everything in regards to the fortunes of democratic socialism in the west.
posted by Joseph Gurl at 4:24 PM on June 10 [15 favorites]


I, like you, do not believe it will. For all sorts of reasons. The question of Brexit is, of course, the thorniest one. There remain a good number of genuinely passionate pro-Europeans in the parliamentary​ Tory party, most notably Clarke, of course, but there are a plenty of others. Now, you can whip a bit, but you can't whip hard without a minority and a confidence and supply agreement that keeps your government functional by the skin of its teeth. How May can hope to retain credibility if she tries to go into exit negotiations without even being able to guarantee she can avoid the deal being prevented by Parliament (remember that the legislature in Britain can always take power back from the executive with a single simple majority vote)? It's just not possible. She can't "get to work", no matter what she deludes herself into thinking is possible.

Would pro-Brexit Tory and Labour MPs together constitute a majority? If so, could May rely on the Labour MPs voting for a deal to thwart Tory “remoaners”?
posted by acb at 4:28 PM on June 10


That would certainly be the thing to split Labour for good, also vastly unlikely.
posted by Artw at 4:30 PM on June 10 [3 favorites]


Sky now reporting there is no agreement with the DUP, and the Downing Street statement to the contrary earlier was 'in error'.
posted by Devonian at 4:34 PM on June 10 [5 favorites]


Sky now reporting there is no agreement with the DUP, and the Downing Street statement to the contrary earlier was 'in error'.

Never go full Trump.
posted by acb at 4:36 PM on June 10 [13 favorites]


What happens if they can't form a government? Another election?

I can't imagine that Sinn Fein would (or could, really) abandon abstentionism, but who this seems like a bit of an all-bets-are-off election, so who knows.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 4:36 PM on June 10 [1 favorite]


Presumably this is evidence of those strong and stable negotiating skills the conservatives have been promising us.

Does this count as uncertain certainty or certain uncertainty?
posted by dng at 4:37 PM on June 10 [3 favorites]


What happens if they can't form a government? Another election?

Labour gets a turn to form government. If Labour can't get confidence and supply from anyone it goes to another election.
posted by Talez at 4:41 PM on June 10


Remember when the AHCA was going through and the freedom caucus were holding it hostage but if they gave the freedom caucus too much moderates would torpedo the whole thing?

That's the needle Theresa May is trying to thread right now. Poorly by the sounds of it.
posted by Talez at 4:44 PM on June 10


The DUP are also the party one of whose councillors moved to ban the sale of alcohol at a beer festival.

If this doesn't hole any deal with them below the waterline, I don't know what will. The British people can (grumblingly) put up with a lot, but not this Taliban-grade bollocks.
posted by acb at 4:50 PM on June 10 [12 favorites]


Keep in mind also the Tories are trying to avoid a second election in any possible way they can because chances are they're going to get absolutely thumped going into it with the leadership in tatters. Voters in Westminster systems tend not to go with parties that don't have their own shit in order. They also tend to not like parties dragging them back out to the polls through intransigence or incompetence.
posted by Talez at 4:50 PM on June 10 [3 favorites]


I can't imagine that Sinn Fein would (or could, really) abandon abstentionism, but who this seems like a bit of an all-bets-are-off election, so who knows.

Taking seats in Westminster would require taking the Oath of Allegiance:
I, (name), do swear that I will be faithful and bear true allegiance to Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II, her heirs and successors, according to law. So help me God.
If an Irish Republican ever mutters those words I will eat my left shoe.
posted by Talez at 4:54 PM on June 10 [24 favorites]


Sky now reporting there is no agreement with the DUP, and the Downing Street statement to the contrary earlier was 'in error'.

Considering the apparent implications for the Good Friday Agreement, mentioned above, I think we can all agree this is great news.
posted by tobascodagama at 4:58 PM on June 10 [5 favorites]


I will eat my left shoe.

Live on Sky News?
posted by EndsOfInvention at 4:59 PM on June 10 [1 favorite]


Putin is having a meeting with his head of dirty tricks.

"So, I don't understand exactly what you did here. I mean, don't get me wrong, it worked beautifully. But what was it, exactly?"

"Nothing."

"Nothing? At all?"

"We just left them to it."

"The British did this to themselves?"

"Yup."

Putin's jaw drops open, awestruck.
posted by Grangousier at 5:03 PM on June 10 [11 favorites]


Well, Farange is in bed with that crowd so it's not like they have absolutely nothing to do with it, even if the British public has become remarkably adept in shooting itself in the face of late.
posted by Artw at 5:07 PM on June 10 [6 favorites]


Live on Sky News?

Sure. Why not. There's an equally good chance I land up on Sky News for some reason.
posted by Talez at 5:08 PM on June 10 [1 favorite]




Sure. Why not. There's an equally good chance I land up on Sky News for some reason.

Promise you'll eat the entire shoe while on camera, and no silly excuses about chemicals.
posted by effbot at 5:17 PM on June 10 [1 favorite]


Promise you'll eat the entire shoe while on camera, and no silly excuses about chemicals.

Sure. I'll even promise I won't make the shoe out of cake.
posted by Talez at 5:19 PM on June 10 [1 favorite]


The Sky report on DUP's not fully committing really does make the Theresa May government seem like something right out of Season 4 "The Thick of It"
posted by My Dad at 5:24 PM on June 10 [7 favorites]


I think that the rapid backpedal on the DUP agreement just before the Sabbath starts is diagnostic of Downing Street taking a punt that they were aaaaalmost there at 6pm and deciding to catch the Sunday papers, and the DUP gleefully taking the chance to get all difficult. Because the DUP don't work on the Sabbath, so that leaves the Tories taking all the flack for a full day.

It's also rather fun that May went to the Palace and said 'I can form a government' before she actually could. Each day closer to the Queen's Speech without an agreement locked down puts more pressure on her... which is, sadly, typical of her really poor negotiation skills. In 2010, Brown took days in talks with the Lib Dems before conceding, and it was only when Cameron and Clegg had actually shaken hands that Call Me Dave took the governmental Uber to see Brenda.

Hour by hour, May is further disqualifying herself from office.
posted by Devonian at 5:33 PM on June 10 [27 favorites]


i can't believe the British government chose to back these loyalist maniacs for all those decades when they're such insufferable pious sharts even to their own ostensible allies. this must be why NI never seems to come up even in domestic media.
posted by indubitable at 5:36 PM on June 10


My sides actually hurt.
posted by vbfg at 5:37 PM on June 10 [1 favorite]


that leaves the Tories taking all the flack for a full day.

At least two full days, since they'll only just get started talking again on Monday. I wonder how much more chaotic things are going to get, or if May even lasts . Harry Cole at the Sun, who spent 100% of his time rubbishing Jeremy Corbyn until Friday, just tweeted this.
posted by My Dad at 5:38 PM on June 10 [1 favorite]


This is a good rant from a Tory MP critiquing May's performance on Sky News.
posted by biffa at 5:38 PM on June 10 [8 favorites]


May is almost certainly out, whatever happens, and whoever gets government is going to be hamstrung by the weakness of their majority. I really think it would be tactically better for the Tories if they ostentatiously fail to reach agreement with the DUP and they let the other parties engage in a few rounds of public squabbling before a new election is called.
posted by Joe in Australia at 5:40 PM on June 10


I don't think the other parties would take the bait, though. There's no way they can make a government, so they'd skip the squabbling and go straight to new elections.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 5:43 PM on June 10 [3 favorites]


Maybe the true conservative party masterplan is to keep having new elections till all the other parties run out of money and can't afford to pay the deposits to contest any seats.
posted by dng at 5:46 PM on June 10 [4 favorites]


I don't think the other parties would take the bait, though. There's no way they can make a government, so they'd skip the squabbling and go straight to new elections.

The Lib Dems kind of learnt this when they realized they couldn't really stop Tory cruelty without dragging the public back to the polls. Nobody wants to be the party to bring the punters back to the polls straight after an election.
posted by Talez at 5:48 PM on June 10 [1 favorite]


@NyeBeverage The person who claims to be the best person to negotiate with the EU is currently being played by people who don't believe in fossils.
posted by Artw at 5:51 PM on June 10 [26 favorites]


Kinda crazy that Theresa May is negotiating with this person.
posted by My Dad at 5:56 PM on June 10


Also, Labour would LOVE another election right now.

If May can't pull off a confidence and supply deal (that doesn't split her party) very soon, that's what they'll get. (Narrator: she couldn't).
posted by Devonian at 5:58 PM on June 10 [9 favorites]


So many marginals.... so many....
posted by Artw at 5:58 PM on June 10 [3 favorites]


Capital, Crisis, and Corbyn
There is now what is called a “hung parliament,” with no overall majority for one party. This makes the upcoming Brexit talks with the EU a mess, as there is no “strong and stable” government to negotiate.

But more than a disaster for May and the Conservatives, this is one for the British ruling class. The negotiations over the terms of Britain leaving the EU are supposed to start on June 19, and now the EU negotiators will face British ones having lost their majority in the British Parliament. The terms of any deal are going to be hard on the interests of British capital: on the terms of trade, employment mobility, and on capital flows for the City of London.

At the same time, the UK economy is already struggling. In the first quarter of 2017, the UK’s real GDP grew more slowly than any other top (G7) economy. The British pound dropped sharply after the election result, and it is likely to fall further as foreign investors consider their options, given the uncertainty of what will happen with Brexit and the paralyzed position of a minority Conservative government unable to carry out any economic policy measures. Sterling has already fallen by over 15% since the Brexit referendum result last year.
posted by Joseph Gurl at 6:21 PM on June 10 [6 favorites]


Democracy, eh? Bloody 'ell! ;-)

All my love right at ya, UK friends. Pleased to report that the quidnunc kid vote is steady at 0% (last election: 0%) and that's a solid base from which to ... send all my love right at ya, UK friends!


You can't possibly consider that utter madman The Quidnunc Kid to lead you in these times of trouble! We need a proper plurality here!

I am placing myself as the leader of NotAssholesThatLoveTheBlue Party and offering my services during this crisis.
posted by Samizdata at 6:29 PM on June 10 [3 favorites]




Alan Sugar is a knob and his views have no relevance on anything.
posted by adamvasco at 6:51 PM on June 10 [23 favorites]


Alan Sugar, previously UK host of "The Apprentice".
posted by Artw at 6:52 PM on June 10 [9 favorites]


Don't worry about the mess, folks, Winston Churchill is on it.

Nobody wants to be the party to bring the punters back to the polls straight after an election.

I suspect you can find quite a few Labour folks who'd love to do that, and as soon as possible to leverage the current narrative of May as the biggest loser in modern history ("as useful as a zombie on a broken bike", to quote an article that just popped up in my feeds).

Seems Corbyn is hoping that enough Tory backbenchers will block May's Queen's Speech but not his alternative, but that doesn't feel likely, so there you have your reelection. Which could go in any direction tbh, there are many ways to interpret Thursday's results, and as Verhofstadt put it the other day, "I thought surrealism was a Belgian invention", so not going to rule out any scenario at this point...
posted by effbot at 7:04 PM on June 10 [1 favorite]


Alan Sugar should have experienced running a football club before everyone noticed he didn't know what he was getting in to.
posted by lmfsilva at 7:16 PM on June 10


It's safe to say - Apprentice anchors really shouldn't get into politics
posted by Devonian at 7:19 PM on June 10 [27 favorites]


Didn't Katie Hopkins rise like a poisonous miasma from The Apprentice, too?
posted by Grangousier at 7:21 PM on June 10 [8 favorites]


The Financial Times had an interesting set of charts on the 2017 general election the other day. It inspired me to write something. I thought I was going to write something clever about them, or about the general election. Instead I found myself writing 6,340 words about New Labour through the 1997 general election, and its all thanks to this chart.
Something happened here. Something important happened in this election and the past few elections, that’s true, but that chart also tells us that something important happened about twenty-five years ago, when Labour began its long march towards the center. That something was New Labour.
So much has happened between Blair and now that it’s possible to forget the social transformation of the Labour Party under Margaret Thatcher and Tony Blair. If you’ll bear with me, I’ll take you through the breaking and remaking of the Labour Party, its transformation from a party of “the inner cities, the North, the Clyde, the mining industry, the heavy engineering industry, the public sector, [and] the trade unions,” a party that couldn’t win more than a handful of seats south of the line between the Wash and the Bristol Channel, into the sort of party that can win in Kensington, even under a leader like Jeremy Corbyn.
posted by the man of twists and turns at 7:37 PM on June 10 [5 favorites]


Both the Mail and Sunday Times is fronting with Boris for PM, based on information from inside sources who's probably named Boris too, although Boris says it's tripe. Getting a new PM in place before the Queen's Speech and Brexit negotiations scheduled for a week from now might be a bit tough...

In other Twitter news, I see hardcore Corbyn zealots have descended on unpure Labour MPs now again, demanding purges, intelligence tests, etc. Seems the voters didn't follow instructions.

Also, #WorstPrimeMinisterInHistory is trending.
posted by effbot at 8:01 PM on June 10 [2 favorites]


Didn't Katie Hopkins rise like a poisonous miasma from The Apprentice, too?

I would only quibble with the word rise.
posted by jaduncan at 8:08 PM on June 10 [4 favorites]


Oh, random fun fact: if nobody can form a government within two weeks, the Fixed Term Parlament Act means another election must be called.

Ironically, this is like a little preview of how May negotiates when there is a cut-off date acting as a gun to her head.
posted by jaduncan at 8:14 PM on June 10 [27 favorites]


I suspect you can find quite a few Labour folks who'd love to do that, and as soon as possible to leverage the current narrative of May as the biggest loser in modern history ("as useful as a zombie on a broken bike", to quote an article that just popped up in my feeds).

They'd love to do that but they sure as hell don't want to be blamed for it.
posted by Talez at 8:25 PM on June 10


Odd, so far the Mail website seems to barely mention the Survation poll they commissioned with Labour on 45%, Conservatives on 39%; and 49% to 38% saying Theresa May should resign. (This will presumably be reweighted with the election result data so can't be directly compared with any previous one.)
posted by TheophileEscargot at 8:39 PM on June 10 [2 favorites]


Mr. Sugar's Amstrad company was previously responsible for such misbegotten monstrosities as this.
posted by Artw at 8:43 PM on June 10 [1 favorite]




Is there any reason to think this result is likely to prevent Brexit?
posted by Joe in Australia at 8:47 PM on June 10


I think it's likely that a "hard Brexit" (whatever insane idea that is) is going to be averted. The dumb thing is, any "better deal" than hard Brexit is still going to put the UK in a weaker position than it ever was.

Or Boris Johnson could just do a U-turn and withdraw Article 50 (which may or may not be legally possible; the person who drafted Article 50 seems to think so).
posted by My Dad at 8:54 PM on June 10 [2 favorites]


Is there any reason to think this result is likely to prevent Brexit?

Hard Brexit, quite possibly. Assuming the FTPA doesn't kick in, there isn't a majority in the house for hard Brexit. The EFTA option looks possible.
posted by jaduncan at 8:56 PM on June 10


I realize that electorates aren't rationale, but unless I'm counting wrong, I don't see how Labour could form a government. Even if they get the Liberal Dems, SNP, and the one Green and independent on board, it's not enough, right? So I don't see how they could be blamed for new elections. They certainly can't go into a coalition with the Tories or DUP.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 8:58 PM on June 10


Or Boris Johnson could just do a U-turn and withdraw Article 50

I cannot even imagine the sheer amount of internecine warfare that would erupt if Johnson did that. He, more than anyone else, is associated with the Leave campaign. Out of sheer pride (and a desire to be Tory leader more than 5 minutes) he is very unlikely to do more than find a Brexit primarily in name.
posted by jaduncan at 8:59 PM on June 10 [1 favorite]


Maybe they could just withdraw from Gibraltar and call it a compromise?
posted by Joe in Australia at 9:02 PM on June 10 [2 favorites]


Is there any evidence that the EU actually gives a shit about Hard or Soft Brexit and won't just offer the same diminished status no matter what?
posted by Artw at 9:02 PM on June 10 [2 favorites]


Is there any evidence that the EU actually gives a shit about Hard or Soft Brexit and won't just offer the same diminished status no matter what?

Yeah, the EU would greatly prefer the UK to be in the single market. There are supply chains and existing sales to think of. IMHO the reason the EFTA option is quite possible is that the UK get to say they left the EU, UK manufacturing and (crucially) financial and legal services get to be in the single market, the EU don't have to put up with British MEPs, and can still buy and sell goods and services with a major economy. Everyone is genuinely a winner.

Now, you might think that sounds like the UK getting a less good deal in that it's essentially EU membership without any vote and without the rebate.

Well, yes. Pretty pointless, eh?
posted by jaduncan at 9:08 PM on June 10 [20 favorites]


Depends on what you think of British decision making, I guess.
posted by Artw at 9:14 PM on June 10


Absent that, it means that we will be outside of the single market, and will have forced many of London's financial and legal firms to leave for sunnier climes and/or Ireland. We'd be free to negotiate trade deals with other nations, but would take a massive economic hit. Depending on how much we don't form a deal, we might be trading on WTO terms, meaning that we'd also have forced many manufacturing firms to move out of the country.

TBH, I can't see many Tories entirely enthusiastically signing up for a situation where they are currently in considerable danger but get to go to the country next time having successfully cast the economy into massive recession.

So, yeah. What saves face? EFTA.
posted by jaduncan at 9:14 PM on June 10 [2 favorites]


(or something even softer)
posted by jaduncan at 9:16 PM on June 10 [1 favorite]


Well, yes. Pretty pointless, eh?

Well, Brussels get rid of Farage. That's worth a few points. You probably won't, though, he'll still pop up on BBC a few times per week.
posted by effbot at 9:24 PM on June 10 [1 favorite]


And how long until the chattering classes start moaning about having to comply to EU standards but having no say in setting them?
posted by PenDevil at 10:44 PM on June 10


Maybe the age-based IQ dip will have passed by then.
posted by Artw at 11:28 PM on June 10


Theresa May negotiating with the DUP.
(joke stolen from I-can’t-remember-who on Twitter)
posted by Bloxworth Snout at 12:32 AM on June 11 [16 favorites]


I've been rewatching the Robbie Coltrane's old Mason Boyne sketches for some reason.
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 12:41 AM on June 11 [3 favorites]


Been away for a bit organising local Labour voters and pushing for massive change in the UK. How are things :D
posted by longbaugh at 1:08 AM on June 11 [8 favorites]






So the Labour right are now saying that the election was "easily winnable"?

Before Corbyn became leader, the Labour right were glumly talking about a "mountain to climb" in the next election. Afterwards they warned grimly that Labour is party without a country and "without establishing the role of Labour in modern Britain, the party is unlikely ever to govern again", and that "Labour cannot possibly win, nor even come close to winning, the next election unless it somehow gets shot of Corbyn in pretty short order".

They weren't saying it was so easy when they thought one of their guys would have the job.
posted by TheophileEscargot at 3:13 AM on June 11 [20 favorites]


Former Blair aide says Labour lost an ‘easily winnable’ fight

That argument has been made on both sides, from people who'd like their parties to be a bit less extreme. A more interesting hypothetical is perhaps how things would have looked if Corbyn had shown the same energy during the Remain campaign as he did during the Corbyn GE campaign :-)

Talking of which, he apparently just stated that the Great Repeal Bill is dead. Not entirely sure how you'd sort out Brexit without something like that, though.
posted by effbot at 3:16 AM on June 11


And how long until the chattering classes start moaning about having to comply to EU standards but having no say in setting them?

Is this your official starting point for the Brentry campaign?
posted by jaduncan at 3:19 AM on June 11 [3 favorites]


They weren't saying it was so easy when they thought one of their guys would have the job.

To be fair, the argument (on both sides) is that the other side was weaker than expected. Nobody expected the May collapse, for example, and relying on your opposition to consistently screw up both leaders and their manifestos don't work in the long run.
posted by effbot at 3:21 AM on June 11 [1 favorite]


Oh Jeremy Corbyn!

Thought you were linking to that failed high five that's been making the rounds.
posted by effbot at 3:26 AM on June 11


Brentry campaign

Brepentance and Breabsorption.
posted by busted_crayons at 3:45 AM on June 11 [3 favorites]


I'm not seeing any of the mocking of Jeremy Corbyn that you feel is still prevalent, effbot. The only times I saw the high five posted, people were laughing with him, not at him. He'll do good things for the UK and its allies over the next year or so, and it's unpleasant to see him ridiculed.
posted by ambrosen at 3:48 AM on June 11 [7 favorites]




Corbyn needs to dial back a bit on the "I can still be PM, this is still on" stuff. It smells of the same hubris that made May call the election, and people in this country tend not to like it when someone goes against the result of a democratic vote. Labour's performance astonished me - it was fantastic. But they still lost the election, and coming out with the "this is still on" rhetoric will make Corbyn look silly when the Conservative Queen's Speech goes through. It's vanishingly unlikely that enough Conservatives will vote for the Labour amendments to the Queen's Speech knowing what will happen.

Far better to say "we did brilliantly but still lost, we're going to continue to develop our policy programme and work towards a Labour government", wait for May and her new-found Irish friends to cock it up of their own accord, and then move in. The fantasyland "I can still be PM" stuff is going to turn off a few people and combined with what has to be an improved Conservative campaign, could swing the next election back the other way. Calm down, Corbyn!
posted by winterhill at 3:58 AM on June 11 [7 favorites]


Alan Sugar, previously UK host of "The Apprentice".

Also floated as a potential Labour candidate for Mayor of London a few years ago, when Blairism was still viable and toe ability to Tory as well as the Tories was considered important. How things change...
posted by acb at 4:30 AM on June 11


Well, Brussels get rid of Farage. That's worth a few points. You probably won't, though, he'll still pop up on BBC a few times per week.

Truly the unflushable turd in the toilet bowl of politics.
posted by acb at 4:31 AM on June 11 [7 favorites]


Brentry campaign

We might have to wait a few decades, until we've had a jolly old war against one or more of the filthy vino-drinking continentals. Sometime after the first generation that grew up ineligible for Erasmus scholarships or visa-free living on the continent has been sent off to do their duty in the trenches. (After all, how can young Tommy Atkins be relied upon to run Jacques and Fritz through with his bayonet when the three of them spent the previous summer necking pills in Ibiza together?)

So, perhaps 2050 or so.
posted by acb at 4:36 AM on June 11 [1 favorite]




Corbyn needs to dial back a bit on the "I can still be PM, this is still on" stuff. It smells of the same hubris that made May call the election, and people in this country tend not to like it when someone goes against the result of a democratic vote. Labour's performance astonished me - it was fantastic. But they still lost the election, and coming out with the "this is still on" rhetoric will make Corbyn look silly when the Conservative Queen's Speech goes through. It's vanishingly unlikely that enough Conservatives will vote for the Labour amendments to the Queen's Speech knowing what will happen.

If Trump is Pepe the Frog, Corbyn is Dat Boi, cheerfully unicycling on regardless of what is thrown at him.

“Here come dat absolute boi”
posted by acb at 4:40 AM on June 11 [10 favorites]


If Theresa May was stupid enough to take political advice on Europe from someone called Jean-Claude Juncker she deserves all the opprobrium being heaped on her. The name positively screams "I AM A MENACING CONTINENTAL". Has she never heard of nominative determinism? No wonder her Foreign Minister is named Boris.
posted by Joe in Australia at 5:03 AM on June 11 [2 favorites]


No wonder her Foreign Minister is named Boris.

Erh, Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson.
posted by Mister Bijou at 5:11 AM on June 11 [4 favorites]


Love that boy.
posted by Joseph Gurl at 5:14 AM on June 11


The fantasyland "I can still be PM" stuff is going to turn off a few people

Which people, though? I get the impression that the optics of the 'bide my time' and 'never say die' attitudes play rather differently to young first-time-voters.

If we end up with another election imminent, Corbyn will need to maintain high turnout from young supporters, a demographic that tends to stay home for any election that feels like business as usual. You need blood in the water and a candidate that they think will take the fight all the way.
posted by the latin mouse at 5:19 AM on June 11 [8 favorites]


My feeling about the sentiment is that it has turned massively against the Conservatives, because of how clear they've made it that they simply can't run a country. I think any election in the next 6 months will have that positive feedback of "we made a difference, now let's finish the job" that will keep engagement rates as high as they were on Thursday.

So I'm bullish for Corbyn. In part because he convinced me over the past 3 weeks or so.
posted by ambrosen at 5:35 AM on June 11 [11 favorites]


I want to be hugely behind Corbyn and another election sooner not later, but right now Labour are still planning on a hard Brexit. Given what an unmitigated disaster that's going to be, switching to a Labour government feels like changing the captain of the Titanic for someone who's got much better ideas about pretty much everything re: managing a ship, but is still steering it straight for the iceberg.

So if the alternative to that is Tories wobbling their way through another few months by giving up on hard Brexit - as the DUP will want and as a lot of Tory Remainer MPs are suddenly getting a lot louder about - and getting that up and running when the negotiations start, and then collapsing in disarray over their utter incompetence, and then Labour winning another election before the end of the year and not ditching it - then I'd be happy with that. But who even knows any more? We could be looking at a Lord Buckethead/New Whig/LibDem coalition by this time next week.
posted by Catseye at 5:44 AM on June 11 [6 favorites]


Donald Trump's state visit to Britain put on hold

I think he knows his hand holder won't be there to meet him off the plane now.
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 5:49 AM on June 11 [6 favorites]


God, so much going on. Trump's UK visit on hold, DUP making Farage part of the Brexit process a condition of support, McDonnell banging on about a hard Brexit being democratically mandated, 1922 Committee calling May to the headmaster's office a day earlier than planned...

Week. Politics. Long time.
posted by Devonian at 5:51 AM on June 11 [5 favorites]


I think he knows his hand holder won't be there to meet him off the plane now.

Also from the story it looks like he made this call a while ago. This is someone leaking whatever they can to undermine May. Not that she needs much in the way of undermining. I've seen spinning tops more stable than her.
posted by Happy Dave at 5:51 AM on June 11 [1 favorite]


DUP making Farage part of the Brexit process a condition of support

What?
posted by acb at 5:55 AM on June 11 [3 favorites]


So sayeth the Sunday Times...
posted by Devonian at 6:01 AM on June 11 [1 favorite]


Jesus, he's never going to fuck off.
posted by Artw at 6:02 AM on June 11 [8 favorites]


Lots of press this morning from Labour claiming that they can lead and that Theresa May cannot run a minority government.

It's fighting talk but they seem to be conveniently ignoring the fact that they have even less seats than the Tories, they'd need to enter into a coalition with almost every other party just to beat the Tories 318 seats and they still would need the DUP (shudder) if they wanted to get more than 326 seats for a majority.
posted by mr_silver at 6:20 AM on June 11


In my constituency (Southport) potential Labour voters were bombarded with messages from the Lib Dems (through the letterbox every single day in the weeks before the election, on social media constantly) saying "Labour can't win here, vote Lib Dem to stop the Tories". I didn't fall for it - I almost did but changed my mind 2 days before the election and voted Labour but I know a lot of people who voted "tactically" here for the Lib Dems. When the results came through it ended up with a Tory win, Labour second and Lib Dems third. Now those that voted tactically feel cheated out of their votes by the Lib Dems. I'm convinced if there were another election here tomorrow Labour would win even though they ended up trailing the Tories by about 3,000 votes.

We're now the laughing stock of Merseyside - a sad dot of blue in a sea of red. I wonder how many other constituencies fell for something like this?
posted by hazyjane at 6:23 AM on June 11 [8 favorites]


Lord Farage of Question Time
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 6:30 AM on June 11 [5 favorites]


I wonder the same about all those Scottish seats.
posted by Artw at 6:31 AM on June 11 [2 favorites]


hazyjane, Lib Dems did that where I am - ran a nasty negative campaign based around tactical voting and we still ended up with the Tory (as predicted - this wasn't a marginal by any stretch of the imagination). Combined Labour and Green vote outstriped the Lib Dems even though they came in second. If (when) it happens again, the Tory will probably still retain his seat but Lib Dem will probably get flattened in the polls. And if those same Lib Dems who proclaimed they were all about a progressive alliance had gone and campaigned in the marginals next door... well, they might well have turned Red. (Edited for typo.)
posted by IncognitoErgoSum at 6:31 AM on June 11 [1 favorite]


I wonder the same about all those Scottish seats.

Scotland was all anti-SNP tactical voting. It was organised from the top with paper candidates in some constituencies. Though I think a lot less Labour supporters will be lending their votes to the Tories next time given what's happening now (and probably vice-versa too)
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 6:35 AM on June 11 [3 favorites]


From Robert Harris, a reminder of who got you all into this mess: How appropriate it was that David Cameron’s main contribution to this election campaign was to post on social media a picture of his toes. When future historians puzzle over Britain, 2015-17, it will be a useful exhibit.
posted by effbot at 6:38 AM on June 11 [3 favorites]


I'm still a bit skeptical of the second coming of Corbyn because the Tory campaign was so bad and the Brexit process is really turning out to be a shit show. Also I need to keep reminding myself that Corbyn and his far left supporters want Brexit, they are not fans of the EU.
posted by PenDevil at 6:39 AM on June 11 [1 favorite]


The SNP ran a very poor campaign this time, and the troops are demoralised, so an early return to the ballot box may not do them many favours.

On the other hand, that peculiar DUP <3 Lord Unflushable business may winkle out some interesting angles on all that dark money that's floating around the DUP and the Scots Tories. Say what you like about the DUP, but they are vastly venal and pretty damn incompetent at hiding it.
posted by Devonian at 6:42 AM on June 11 [3 favorites]


My feeling about the sentiment is that it has turned massively against the Conservatives, because of how clear they've made it that they simply can't run a country. I think any election in the next 6 months will have that positive feedback of "we made a difference, now let's finish the job" that will keep engagement rates as high as they were on Thursday.
I hope you're right. It feels like public sentiment is starting to turn against the Conservatives at this point. During the election campaign, the public were (rather belatedly) starting to link the Conservative government with their kids' school being underfunded, the roads being full of holes, the threat of not being able to afford social care, and so on. The unedifying sight of May rushing off to the USA to hold hands with the deeply unpopular Trump can't have helped, either.

One of the biggest swings to Labour that I'm aware of was in Congleton, a 13.8% swing. This is in a seat that's been Tory since the dinosaurs walked the earth, but there's been non-stop speculative housebuilding in the area combined with a lack of investment in health and education and infrastructure locally. The local headteachers have been issuing warnings that the school week may have to be shortened. The Labour candidate campaigned on those grounds - basically, if we're going to have all these new residents, we need the money for transport and schools and hospitals to serve them - and it seemed to work. The Conservative MP is still in, but with a much reduced majority, and if they look vulnerable in Congleton, they are pretty much vulnerable everywhere.
posted by winterhill at 6:45 AM on June 11 [4 favorites]


On the SDLP, I feel that their biggest problem has been the attempt to reclaim a leadership position within nationalism in Northern Ireland. As A&C said upthread, the further we get away from Sinn Fein's complicity in violence, the harder that is to achieve. You can't out-green Sinn Fein, they will always be able to outflank you on the national question and if that's what a voter's number one concern is, then why would they vote for some milder version of the same?

My argument, which I put to the leadership when I worked there, was that the SDLP need to scale back their public commitment to a united Ireland and scale up their advocacy for a strong social democratic society. They also need to revisit their position on abortion - which, like most Northern Irish parties, they strongly oppose - and reach out to young voters and moderate/centre-left unionists. The abject failure of the old guard of the SDLP might allow this realignment, as judging from my time there, the younger members and politicians are much more socially liberal than their predecessors. The SDLP youth wing attempted to get a conference debate on SDLP abortion policy in 2010, they failed after triggering a huge row with the older, more conservative leadership.

The constitutional question of Northern Ireland's future was settled by the Good Friday Agreement, so my view is that the parties should focus on normal domestic policy over all else. Retain a united Ireland as a long term aspiration if you want, but every time you stress how much you want one, you alienate moderate unionists who might otherwise have considered you.

I've always been broadly in favour of a united Ireland, as part of a strong European Union, but I wouldn't want a united Ireland of low corporation taxes, minimal welfare state and libertarian government. I suspect that the NHS alone adds quite a few percentage points to support for continued union with Britain among those who would otherwise be pro-united Ireland.

There's a huge problem with all this though, in that the "ugly scaffolding" of the Good Friday Agreement locks in sectarian politics by requiring designation as 'nationalist' or 'unionist' and actively prevents normal politics emerging. This was probably necessary for the peace agreement, to help deal with the legacy of an actively sectarian state, but it's also part of the reason we are where we are today. I don't have an answer about how to move beyond it.

Literally the day after I spoke to Margaret Ritchie, then SDLP leader, about why I felt they needed to beef up their social democrat stance and tone down the Irish nationalism, she gave a speech saying the SDLP's number one priority was a united Ireland. How on earth do you reach out beyond the nationalist community with that stance?

(As an aside, everyone should listen to Mark Durkan's speech (transcript)in the aftermath of the publication of the Saville report on Bloody Sunday and the first British apology for the soldiers' actions that day and think about what we will now be missing from Westminster)
posted by knapah at 6:54 AM on June 11 [20 favorites]


If there's one thing most of the British public doesn't like it's having to think about NI politics ever, under any circumstances. Having that forced upon them may have consequences too.
posted by Artw at 6:55 AM on June 11 [8 favorites]


(I'm not saying that's a good attitude to have, recent events clearly show that it isn't, but it's pretty clearly one that's there)
posted by Artw at 6:57 AM on June 11 [1 favorite]


Politics in the UK rarely has a greater radius than about 50 miles. NI suffers more than most because it's hard for any group in the UK to look at it and go 'we did a good job there'.

Which makes risking the GFA for political ends that are most likely unachievable in any case a particularly unpleasant move.
posted by Devonian at 7:03 AM on June 11


Enjoy this DUP singalong.
posted by biffa at 7:27 AM on June 11 [1 favorite]


A bit of cheeriness - Channel 4 twitvid about the new Parliament's record-breaking diversity.
posted by Devonian at 7:34 AM on June 11


> "a lot less Labour supporters will be lending their votes to the Tories next time given what's happening now"

I ... do not have kind words about people who did this.
posted by kyrademon at 8:00 AM on June 11 [7 favorites]


That's a real thing? Because ewww.
posted by Artw at 8:03 AM on June 11 [1 favorite]


Kezia Dugdale did her bit as leader of Scottish Labour by telling labour voters to vote Tory to stop the SNP. She seems to have helped achieve a Tory surge.
posted by gnuhavenpier at 8:22 AM on June 11 [1 favorite]


Jesus fuck.
posted by Artw at 8:24 AM on June 11


I was going to say it was interesting that the most progressive parties outside England are all nationalist, and those relative half measures such as the SDLP or Scottish Labour are waning. I was thinking there were a lot of parallels. But I don't think the SDLP ever tried to get the DUP into Westminster to shore up the Union in the hopes of winning those seats back themselves one day.
posted by vbfg at 8:31 AM on June 11 [2 favorites]


Artw -- Yep. Apparently screwing over another progressive left wing party is more important than actually running the government or getting the right wing out of power or anything.
posted by kyrademon at 8:44 AM on June 11 [2 favorites]


Who moved Judea to Scotland, then?
posted by delfin at 8:48 AM on June 11 [6 favorites]


Scottish politics has kinda been split six ways in the last couple of years the moment: Left/Right, pro/anti Brexit and pro/anti Independence... and for some people the last one is definitely more important that the first.
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 8:55 AM on June 11 [1 favorite]


I guess it's possible they just didn't want to be the escape boat.
posted by Artw at 8:58 AM on June 11


To be fair, Kezia Dugdale didn't outright tell people to vote Tory. She said that there were seats in Scotland where the Tories were best placed to beat the SNP (in the context of arguing that Labour were best placed placed almost everywhere else). Not quite the same. But if you're wondering why on earth beating the SNP was the point of the campaign for them anyway.... yeah, you're not alone.

Pretty much the entire voting campaign from Labour - and LibDems, and Conservatives - in Scotland was single-platform anti-SNP "let's send Nicola a message!". And there were definite decisions by Con/Lab/LD to back off campaigning in seats where other parties were better placed to beat the SNP, in all directions. I don't think tactical campaigning is a bad thing in and of itself, if you share a goal that's bigger than your political differences, but I am pretty horrified that Labour and the LibDems consider "beat the SNP" to be that goal when the Conservatives are in power.
posted by Catseye at 8:58 AM on June 11 [13 favorites]


Gove is a fucking minister. Minister for the Environment. Michael fucking Gove is in the cabinet.

May is completely and utterly, without question, fucked.
posted by Talez at 11:08 AM on June 11 [16 favorites]


Yeah but his brief is environment, food, & rural affairs, so he has to pacify the farmers whose livelihoods are in massive danger from the Brexit he campaigned for.
posted by doop at 11:14 AM on June 11 [4 favorites]


Is the talent pool of the Tory party so shallow that this is the best they can do?
posted by Happy Dave at 11:35 AM on June 11 [1 favorite]


Liam Fox back too

to paraphrase roger ebert

"This cabinet doesn't scrape the bottom of the barrel. This cabinet isn't the bottom of the barrel. This cabinet isn't below the bottom of the barrel. This cabinet doesn't deserve to be mentioned in the same sentence with barrels."
posted by lalochezia at 11:37 AM on June 11 [5 favorites]


Yeah but his brief is environment, food, & rural affairs, so he has to pacify the farmers whose livelihoods are in massive danger from the Brexit he campaigned for

Which they also all campaigned for.
posted by dng at 11:40 AM on June 11


knapah, thank you -- with one comment I think you answered about a dozen questions I've had about NI politics for a long time! I do hope the SDLP finds a way to move in the direction (or, more likely, to be pulled in the direction via the younger membership) you've suggested.
posted by the return of the thin white sock at 11:41 AM on June 11 [1 favorite]


Is the talent pool of the Tory party so shallow that this is the best they can do?

If you stepped in it you wouldn't even get your toenails wet.
posted by Grangousier at 11:42 AM on June 11


Dear god... Andrea Leadsom has been made Leader of the House of Commons.
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 11:53 AM on June 11 [2 favorites]


Is this reshuffle May's formal surrender?
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 11:54 AM on June 11 [1 favorite]


knapah, thank you -- with one comment I think you answered about a dozen questions I've had about NI politics for a long time! I do hope the SDLP finds a way to move in the direction (or, more likely, to be pulled in the direction via the younger membership) you've suggested.

No worries! Happy to try to answer any other questions people may have. I'm expecting a good chunk of my week to be explaining the DUP and NI politics to my colleagues.
posted by knapah at 11:57 AM on June 11 [8 favorites]


Which they also all campaigned for.

Granted that was back when the Leave campaign was still promising access to the Single Market...
posted by PenDevil at 11:58 AM on June 11 [3 favorites]


The problem with politics everywhere at the moment is that one action results in an exponential number of unforeseen consequences. So a status quo cabinet may be the best bet at achieving stasis... for 24 hours or so.
posted by My Dad at 12:16 PM on June 11 [1 favorite]


At least some farmers realised what Brexit was likely to do for their labour supply, never mind markets. In any case, he still gets to do the explaining to the leavers, should he not be able to live up to his promises.
posted by doop at 12:42 PM on June 11 [3 favorites]


Farmers Weekly backed a Remain vote, whilst acknowledging that the majority of their readers were likely to vote Leave.

The farmers that I used to work for made it very clear that Brexit was going to fuck their business, but the local consensus where I'm from originally was that the Tories would make special arrangements to bail them out anyway.
posted by threetwentytwo at 12:53 PM on June 11 [3 favorites]


It looks as if the portrayal of the DUP as dour homophobes might not be entirely true.
posted by reynir at 12:57 PM on June 11 [2 favorites]


One thing that's kinda got swamped by the other news is the fact the polls, with a couple of exceptions, got it wrong again... Kellner puts it down to them underestimating the youth turn-out.
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 1:03 PM on June 11 [2 favorites]


Tories ‘spent more than £1m’ on negative Facebook adverts attacking Jeremy Corbyn But combination of celebrity endorsements and slick, shareable videos helped Labour win online campaign battle

Was it the Corbyn memes wot won it? Here are some of the best

posted by fearfulsymmetry at 1:36 PM on June 11 [3 favorites]


He rubs up a lot of people the wrong way, and he's v much pro independence to be entirely neutral... but for in depth analysis of Scottish politics there's possibly no better place than Wings Over Scotland.

He's looked at all the results in depth now and his conclusion is that although there was a lot of tactical voting - a was a key issue in a number of seats - it's mainly been the a Tory rise that led to the SNP loss of seats (there was no real Labour surge north of the border and the seats they picked up were from SNP losing votes and them winning by default)

Earlier he discussed just how close everything was in Scotland - a variation of just around 3000 votes in the right places could have had the SNP on either 24 or 41 seats (40% or 70%)
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 2:18 PM on June 11 [4 favorites]


This is the end of a Sky interview with May from today. The interviewer asks some questions which are blunt to the point of brutal - its worth listening to for them, since May says very little of substance. What's going on behind the eyes doesn't really match the vapid answers, but I am lacking objectivity.
posted by biffa at 3:33 PM on June 11 [4 favorites]


Do you think that there's some small portion of her psyche screaming 'WHY ARE YOU REPEATING A TALKING POINT AGAIN? YOU SOUND LIKE A BROKEN ROBOT! SPEAK NORMALLY FOR GOD'S SAKE'? Or has she entirely lost any awareness of how she sounds now?
posted by Happy Dave at 10:26 PM on June 11 [2 favorites]


I think she’s clutching on to the talking points with the desperate intensity of a shipwrecked sailor hanging on to a small slippery chunk of timber.
posted by Bloxworth Snout at 10:55 PM on June 11 [4 favorites]


Brexit II: Last Week Tonight with John Oliver

(Features a special surprise guest at the end, which I will not spoil.)
posted by zachlipton at 11:34 PM on June 11 [5 favorites]


That link isn't working in the UK and the only other version I can find doesn't get as far as the special guest, so spoil away.
posted by biffa at 11:51 PM on June 11 [1 favorite]


Damn. I thought the official links weren't region locked, since he's done episodes that have been a hit with UK audiences before. Sorry. Feel free to post an alternate link if anyone have one.

Anyway, spoiler: the special surprise guest is Lord Buckethead.
posted by zachlipton at 12:03 AM on June 12 [1 favorite]


Heee, calling May "the Thatcher in the Rye" is my favorite thing ever.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 12:11 AM on June 12 [25 favorites]


John Oliver is broadcast in the UK on a Monday night on Sky Atlantic
posted by toamouse at 12:13 AM on June 12 [1 favorite]


At the rate things keep happening, 24 hours seems like an unacceptable delay for topical satire.
posted by the latin mouse at 1:15 AM on June 12 [10 favorites]


Some voter data breakdown from Lord Ashcroft. Interesting age divide: as expected Labour does well with younger voters, Conservatives with older, but the tipping point is older than you might expect. 35-44s heavily Labour, 45-54s close to even but tipping slightly Conservative, and it's only the over-55s that go really heavily Conservative.
posted by Catseye at 2:16 AM on June 12 [7 favorites]


Some of us middle aged gits remember when tuition fees were free and don't want to deny something to the young kids after we benefitted from it ourselves.
posted by tel3path at 2:27 AM on June 12 [20 favorites]


Not sure how serious this is, but seems EU might be running out of patience with the UK clown convention.
posted by effbot at 2:55 AM on June 12 [2 favorites]


So the day of the election I got only 3 hours' sleep because I had to catch a flight.

Then realized I wasn't about to get any sleep the next night either.

I don't drink so I couldn't bender my way through it like many people seemed to. Instead, I ate cookies.

Continuously, all night and throughout the weekend. No exercise per se, just walking to and from the station and to the airport in intervals of a few minutes, while carrying a full backpack. Of cookies. Obviously the backpack had an ever decreasing weight as I went along.

I spent the whole weekend sleeping, eating cookies and wiping tears of laughter from my face while reading the news.

This morning I weighed myself and I have lost 2lbs.

The Tories have measurably made me weak with laughter.
posted by tel3path at 3:06 AM on June 12 [21 favorites]


Also, why during her own campaign was TM wearing a bright red suit? All the Labour women had red suits and blouses, I don't recall any of the opposition putting on cobalt blue for the occasion.

I know wearing the same colour gets a bit boring but a Tory wearing a bright red suit for her own election? Talk about not believing in yourself.
posted by tel3path at 3:09 AM on June 12 [1 favorite]


Recent David Allen Green Twitter thread:
1. So unprepared for their victory, and so unaware of what to do next, Brexiteers fell for the May approach. Nodding along, with each error.

2. Any criticism of May was "remoaning". She had to be defended without question, all along she was making a successful Brexit less likely.

3. So protected was May from serious criticism, because of Brexit partisanship, mistakes were getting bigger. Hubris.

4. Until she made the biggest mistake possible: triggering Article 50s two year period then calling an election.

5. That mistake did not come out of the blue. It was just the latest misjudgment in a sequence of unforced errors she was getting away with.

6. If Brexiteerers had spent less time telling critics to "get over it" they could have checked Mays clumsy tactics. She was real problem.

7. Brexit may be beyond any politician. No PM could do it. But.

8. Having a realistic, open and collaborative approach to a complex task is the fundamental requirement.

Now perhaps too late.

/ends
posted by Grangousier at 3:21 AM on June 12 [11 favorites]


I hope the infighting is savage but above all, quick. I cannot understand why this so-called career politician is so obtuse as to put herself up for nothing but further, deeper, humiliation. David Allen Green above sums it up very well; and yet this morning's Guardian headline is
Conservative bickering is height of self-indulgence, says David Davis (current Brexit Minister. Well he would, wouldn't he?)
Brexit secretary says government needs to get back to work and Theresa May is ‘incredibly effective’ as PM

Woops, Brexit Secretary, not Minister
posted by glasseyes at 3:35 AM on June 12


Grangousier, thanks for posting that acute summing up! It's painfully accurate.
posted by glasseyes at 3:37 AM on June 12


4. Until she made the biggest mistake possible: triggering Article 50s two year period then calling an election.

Article 50 was triggered after a vote in Parliament where Corbyn called a 3 line whip to support it's passage. Anyone who voted for Labour thinking that this election was a Brexit referendum version 2.0 is severely mistaken. It is going to happen even if Corbyn becomes PM in the next 2 years.
posted by PenDevil at 4:15 AM on June 12 [5 favorites]


But it’s the timing: we have only two years to renegotiate our relationship with the EU. Theresa May took months out of that to hold an election, and the result of the election is going to mean even more time wasted.
posted by Bloxworth Snout at 4:19 AM on June 12 [9 favorites]


It also meant that, as it seemed like brexit was locked in, instead of all the ukip voters switching to the conservatives and giving them their expected landslide, half of them went to labour and gave us them this instead.
posted by dng at 4:38 AM on June 12 [3 favorites]


It is going to happen even if Corbyn becomes PM in the next 2 years.

OTOH, if it becomes apparent (as it almost certainly will) that any kind of “soft Brexit” is nonsense, and the options are either a backdown (with perhaps some kind of fig leaf to save face) or making a glorious bonfire of the nation and to hell with the naysayers, Labour are perhaps more likely to choose the former than the latter.
posted by acb at 4:39 AM on June 12 [7 favorites]


Then Labour can only support a EFTA/EEA type solution and then get hammered by Tories and the Murdoch press for being subject to the four freedoms and all the EU regulations with no power in their legislation.
posted by PenDevil at 4:44 AM on June 12 [1 favorite]


Also how is Corbyn going to justify calling a three line whip on Article 50 and then walk that back?
posted by PenDevil at 4:46 AM on June 12 [1 favorite]


Two years is a long time in politics.
posted by Bloxworth Snout at 4:49 AM on June 12 [1 favorite]


Prior to the election, the consensus seemed to have been accepted by lots of people on both sides of the House that Brexit means Brexit, the will of the people must be respected, blindly march forward over the cliff. The consensus must surely be weakened by this: you can’t read much about people’s views on Brexit into the GE results, but certainly they weren’t impressed by what Theresa May was offering. That provides some political cover for Remainers to stick up for their convictions. It takes some of the wind out of the sails of the Brexiters.

And if, for example, the UK sees sustained inflation in the meantime and there’s a stream of bad news about e.g. companies moving to Europe, difficulty recruiting NHS staff… well, the national mood can change.
posted by Bloxworth Snout at 5:01 AM on June 12 [2 favorites]


Anyway, spoiler: the special surprise guest is Lord Buckethead.

Well now I want to see it.
posted by biffa at 5:07 AM on June 12


Queen's Speech delayed 'for a few days', says BBC'

Constitutional crisis already? Well done.
posted by Devonian at 5:08 AM on June 12 [2 favorites]


Then Labour can only support a EFTA/EEA type solution and then get hammered by Tories and the Murdoch press for being subject to the four freedoms and all the EU regulations with no power in their legislation.

I think we can write off "getting hammered by the Murdoch press" as a major worry after this. They've been doing that, and Labour still got a massive swing.
posted by MattWPBS at 5:20 AM on June 12 [5 favorites]


From the guardian story about that: Any delay in the Queen’s speech would be difficult to accommodate, given the monarch is scheduled to attend Royal Ascot from next Tuesday until the end of next week.

I think that's a pretty fitting illustration of just about everything about our country these days.
posted by dng at 5:22 AM on June 12 [11 favorites]


Also this: Newsnight’s Nicholas Watt says the Queen’s speech is being delayed because the Conservatives and DUP have not agreed a government programme yet and it takes several days to write the speech on goat’s skin.
posted by dng at 5:27 AM on June 12


More on that - a quite bizarre tale, which I don't believe for a second.

The BBC's been told that because the Queen's Speech has to be on special goatskin vellum, which takes a week to prepare, and because nobody did one for a minority Conservative government, there has to be a delay.

Really.

However, there's still no agreement with the DUP, which one might suspect is a bit more apposite to the (pretty much unheard of) delay. BBC also saying that DUP will want to 'be a part of' both the legislative agenda and the Brexit negotiations' - which will also be delayed 'for a few days', although nobody seems to be suggesting this is due to a lack of goat epidermis.

David Davis was on the wireless this morning saying (in effect) 'Hard Brexit, Hard Brexit' like a priapic nativist parrot, but as there's still no official government position on Brexit (damn goats), one can assume that it's all still muckety-fuckety.

Official line on all this seems to be that speculation is unhelpful and unwarranted, and everything is proceeding as planned in the interests of the nation.

And if you believe that, you'll believe The Thick Of It was fiction.
posted by Devonian at 5:28 AM on June 12 [10 favorites]


Technically not actual goat skin any more:
It is not on vellum anymore. It is on "goatskin parchment paper" but confusingly it's not actually goatskin. However it is very high quality, thick paper, which is why the ink takes several days to dry, and it then needs to be bound into a booklet, before being sent on to Her Majesty for signing. So it did have to go to the printers last week. And the paper does have the watermark of a goat....
posted by PenDevil at 5:29 AM on June 12 [4 favorites]


The Last Week Tonight video on Facebook played fine for me in the UK.
posted by grahamparks at 5:32 AM on June 12 [2 favorites]


Our money made of meat, and our laws of leather.
posted by dng at 5:33 AM on June 12 [5 favorites]


Newsnight’s Nicholas Watt says the Queen’s speech is being delayed because the Conservatives and DUP have not agreed a government programme yet and it takes several days to write the speech on goat’s skin.

-->

The BBC's been told that because the Queen's Speech has to be on special goatskin vellum, which takes a week to prepare, and because nobody did one for a minority Conservative government, there has to be a delay.

Wow, I thought that was some kind of crack about the unholy alliance between DUP and the Tories. You guys are something else.
posted by indubitable at 5:42 AM on June 12 [1 favorite]


Yeah, and I'm not even a royalist but I don't see why the Queen should have to disrupt her fun at Ascot to accommodate the shenanigans of the infant school problem class.
posted by tel3path at 5:43 AM on June 12 [11 favorites]


Here's the Shadow Brexit Secretary on negotiating the four freedoms:

Q: But if having access to the single market is so important, why not accept free movement?
Starmer says this is a matter for negotiation. He says he is confident that this can be done.

Q: But if someone like Angela Merkel says this is non-negotiable, what would you do?
Starmer says you would have a negotiation about this.

Q: But what about immigration?
Starmer says it is clear from the EU referendum that immigration rules must change. You could tighten it, and apply free movement just to workers and their families, he says.


This sound like it's going to be a balls up no matter which party is doing the negotiating.
posted by PenDevil at 5:55 AM on June 12 [3 favorites]


No, I really mean it - why should *anyone* take this 'government' seriously after this?

Like I said, I'm not a royalist but at this point we *need* the Queen because she's the only person in power who's not a laughingstock.
posted by tel3path at 5:56 AM on June 12 [3 favorites]


The underlying axiom of Brexit is that we are more competent to run our own Government and make our own laws than is the EU.

I put it to the House that this axiom is demonstrably untrue.
posted by Devonian at 5:59 AM on June 12 [45 favorites]


This sound like it's going to be a balls up no matter which party is doing the negotiating.

People inside government have been making noises about a "transitional period" since about week four after the referendum.

I've mostly been assuming the first thing we'll quietly negotiate, regardless of who is nominally in charge, is a "transitional period" (lasting, oh, I don't know, a decade?). Basically, exactly what George Osborne said.

Punting the problem is so much easier than actually dealing with it... if I planned to do that, I'd be blustering about cliff edges, too.
posted by Leon at 6:06 AM on June 12


Starmer says it is clear from the EU referendum that immigration rules must change. You could tighten it, and apply free movement just to workers and their families, he says.

Am I right in thinking that this is one of the permitted restrictions EU countries can already use (and one that most do use). If so, it's sly to sell it as a new restriction, but maybe politically astute.
posted by ambrosen at 6:15 AM on June 12 [4 favorites]


I'm relieved to discover that a goat did not die in vain for its skin to be inscribed with the Queen's Speech of a Tory majority government that never was.
posted by acb at 6:16 AM on June 12 [1 favorite]


For a Tory majority, they use pig skin, that way the head doesn't go to waste.
posted by crocomancer at 6:25 AM on June 12 [19 favorites]


I'm relieved to discover that a goat did not die in vain for its skin to be inscribed with the Queen's Speech of a Tory majority government that never was.

Maybe they could just keep on using the same goat. A palimpsest of broken ambitions...
posted by Diablevert at 6:27 AM on June 12 [6 favorites]


> Am I right in thinking that this is one of the permitted restrictions EU countries can already use (and one that most do use). If so, it's sly to sell it as a new restriction, but maybe politically astute.

You can send people packing if they haven't found a job in three months. We just don't bother.
posted by Leon at 6:31 AM on June 12


You can send people packing if they haven't found a job in three months. We just don't bother.

Not quite. You can require them to "register their presence" and have (private) health insurance, and cut them off from access to any benefits, but if they do that, you can't throw them out.

The UK currently does the latter, sort-of the middle (you're not thrown out for not having health insurance, but your residency isn't counted toward the five year requirement for permanent residency, for example) and the former is largely irrelevant to the UK (which doesn't have anything like the central person registries of the Scandinavian countries, for example).
posted by Dysk at 7:14 AM on June 12 [1 favorite]


ha ha ha. Times (paywalled, but you get the sense of it from what's above the bar): We should be challenging the naive, unaffordable views of many under-25s, not kowtowing to them. And I've seen a lot of grumbling about Young People Today elsewhere - they're naive, they just don't understand how public finances work, they all love Corbyn because he bribed them with tuition fees,* student narcissism idealism Instagram something about hipsters and so on and so on.

Well done, Conservative commentariat, that's definitely going to get the youth vote on your side!

Meanwhile, voters aged 35-44 went Labour in a big way. (Those aren't placard-wielding students,** this is the mid-career, tax- and NI-paying, mortgage-having, kids in school and parents into retirement demographic. That's not a brilliant sign for the Conservative party's future.

We've had seven years of austerity. Much of the electorate was willing to buy into that to start with, sold as a short-term unpleasant necessity for long-term gain. But after seven years with no light at the end of the tunnel, and seven years of "we'll pay off the deficit by 2015 2017 2026 for sure!" - well. It's going to take more than telling nurses "there's no magic money tree!" to turn public opinion round on that one.

(* tuition fees = bribe. Triple lock = sound fiscal policy not a bribe at all)
(** although some of us were once upon a time!)
posted by Catseye at 7:26 AM on June 12 [14 favorites]


Meanwhile, voters aged 35-44 went Labour in a big way. (Those aren't placard-wielding students,** this is the mid-career, tax- and NI-paying, mortgage-having, kids in school and parents into retirement demographic. That's not a brilliant sign for the Conservative party's future.

Weep. I wish I had a career and a mortgage and maybe even kids.
posted by dng at 7:28 AM on June 12 [4 favorites]


Don't forget that, as looks increasingly likely, the Queen's Speech occurs after midsummer, then the Morris Dancers who deliver it to her at the palace are required by law to use a different dance at the ceremony than if the Queen's Speech occurred between Whitsun and Midsummer. These routines take time to learn, so it can't all be done in an unseemly hurry, like some ugh "American" election. Without laws, no traditions; without traditions, no laws.
posted by Wordshore at 7:31 AM on June 12 [18 favorites]


If this delay is genuinely due to goatskin parchment, I will eat somebody else's Brexit book.
posted by Catseye at 7:34 AM on June 12 [1 favorite]


Don't forget that, as looks increasingly likely, the Queen's Speech occurs after midsummer, then the Morris Dancers who deliver it to her at the palace are required by law to use a different dance at the ceremony than if the Queen's Speech occurred between Whitsun and Midsummer.

Is that the one where they thrice turn widdershins and squeeze St. Dunstan's pincer's at the devil before quaffing the burdock?
posted by Diablevert at 7:40 AM on June 12 [8 favorites]


Is that the one where they thrice turn widdershins and squeeze St. Dunstan's pincer's at the devil before quaffing the burdock?

With some thrumbucking in the middle, yes, that's the one!
posted by Wordshore at 7:42 AM on June 12 [1 favorite]


catseye: Meanwhile, voters aged 35-44 went Labour in a big way. (Those aren't placard-wielding students,** this is the mid-career, tax- and NI-paying, mortgage-having, kids in school and parents into retirement demographic. That's not a brilliant sign for the Conservative party's future.

The new electoral map of Britain:
Labour, founded as the party of the working class, and focused on redistributing resources from the rich to the poor, gained the most ground in 2017 in seats with the largest concentrations of middle-class professionals and the rich. The Conservatives, long the party of capital and the middle class, made their largest gains in the poorest seats of England and Wales. Even more remarkably, after years of austerity, the Conservatives’ advance on 2015 was largest in the seats where average incomes fell most over the past five years, while the party gained no ground at all in the seats where average incomes rose most.

Britain’s class politics has been turned completely upside down in 2017. Wealthy professionals in leafy suburbs have swung behind a Labour leader who pledges to sharply increase their taxes, while it was struggling blue-collar workers in deprived and declining seats who were most attracted by the party of austerity cuts to public services and welfare.
Interesting inversion there. Not the first time it's happened, I think, but it seems to be getting more pronounced.
posted by clawsoon at 7:46 AM on June 12 [5 favorites]


Must be all that 'economic anxiety'.
posted by PenDevil at 7:49 AM on June 12 [4 favorites]


And if, for example, the UK sees sustained inflation in the meantime and there’s a stream of bad news about e.g. companies moving to Europe, difficulty recruiting NHS staff… well, the national mood can change.

There has been a sharp drop in nurses registering to work in the UK since the EU referendum, figures suggest. Last July, 1,304 nurses from the EU joined the Nursing and Midwifery Council register, compared to 46 in April this year, a fall of 96%.
posted by dng at 7:58 AM on June 12 [6 favorites]


The article also talked about how much the divide is between graduates and school-leavers.

I remember reading an opinion piece sometime in the distant past which argued that, historically, higher taxes have mostly gone toward expanding the ranks of well-educated government employees, and not so much toward improving the lives of the poor except via services offered via those well-educated government employees. It's not that the poor gain zero benefit from higher taxes and higher spending, but the educated benefit most of all. For the poor to vote against that is not completely ridiculous or inexplicable.
posted by clawsoon at 7:59 AM on June 12


Is that the one where they thrice turn widdershins and squeeze St. Dunstan's pincer's at the devil before quaffing the burdock?

What your country has managed to do with the English language in our absence is amazing.
posted by zombieflanders at 8:03 AM on June 12 [3 favorites]



I remember reading an opinion piece sometime in the distant past which argued that, historically, higher taxes have mostly gone toward expanding the ranks of well-educated government employees


I would be interested to read something like this, because that would make it the absolute opposite of the US - in the US, government hiring is fantastic for marginalized people, since it's practically the only sector where entry-level positions are relatively well-paid and there's a mechanism for making sure that women and POC are hired at something sort of like their prevalence in the population. Government hiring, in fact, benefits the less educated here far more than the more educated - I don't make as much as I would in the private sector (by a little bit - i'm right at where this kicks in) but the cleaners, entry level secretaries, entry level clerical people, etc make a lot more than the private sector.

Is this because things are just fairer in the UK in general, so getting a well-paid working class job is easier and government jobs not as important?
posted by Frowner at 8:11 AM on June 12 [4 favorites]


I add that working class white people in the US often haaaaate government jobs, even - and I can testify to this fact - when they personally are employed by the government.
posted by Frowner at 8:12 AM on June 12 [8 favorites]


I don't think we can read too much into how Conservative or Labour vote share increased in raw numbers in poorer areas, because of how much the UKIP collapse warps it. So somewhere like Sunderland Central, Conservative vote share increased more than Labour vote share, but both increased off the back of what was formerly a big UKIP share of the vote.

At any rate the vote share by socioeconomic class on the Ashcroft site still has the Labour vote lowest among the rich and highest among the poor, so I don't think we can go so far as to say that the poor are embracing Conservative austerity while the wealthy are rejecting it. Although, this is the world where Labour won fecking Kensington so it is all a bit confusing.
posted by Catseye at 8:12 AM on June 12 [4 favorites]


It's not that the poor gain zero benefit from higher taxes and higher spending, but the educated benefit most of all. For the poor to vote against that is not completely ridiculous or inexplicable.

In this particular case, it's been made pretty clear that one of the major expenses to be covered by Labour's tax rises is an abolition of tuition fees for university. Add the Tory policies on grammar schools (now likely to be quietly dropped) and that explanation makes less sense, unless you're really wanting to make sure that "poor" and "uneducated" can be used as synonyms.
posted by Dysk at 8:13 AM on June 12 [1 favorite]


Is this because things are just fairer in the UK in general, so getting a well-paid working class job is easier


Hahahahahahahaha! No.

Well, okay, maybe easier, but that's in the same way that the surface of the sun is cooler than two meters deep.
posted by Dysk at 8:15 AM on June 12 [5 favorites]


Frowner: I would be interested to read something like this, because that would make it the absolute opposite of the US - in the US, government hiring is fantastic for marginalized people, since it's practically the only sector where entry-level positions are relatively well-paid and there's a mechanism for making sure that women and POC are hired at something sort of like their prevalence in the population.

For all I know, the opinion piece I'm remembering was written by some blowhard American conservative, and its premise may not even be true. It struck me as an interesting argument nonetheless.

I add that working class white people in the US often haaaaate government jobs, even - and I can testify to this fact - when they personally are employed by the government.

Lol, yes, that may be a better explanation.
posted by clawsoon at 8:16 AM on June 12


Getting a well-paid *middle class* job is out of reach for most people in the UK. Britain is a low-wage, high-cost-of-living economy.
posted by tel3path at 8:21 AM on June 12 [2 favorites]


What your country has managed to do with the English language in our absence is amazing.

Ah, yes. The good old days. The American Occupation of Britain 1942-1945: "overpaid, oversexed and over here".
posted by Mister Bijou at 8:26 AM on June 12 [1 favorite]


I find it interesting that people are blaming than under-25s for not knowing how finances work, when I'm mid-30s and most of my friends have well-paying jobs and are quite aware of how government finances work and extremely willing to spend lots of government money on free tuition and suchlike.

We know that these programs will be expensive and will require massive changes to the tax code that will impede corporations and the wealthy. That's why we want them. It's good that we have something useful to spend all that money on.
posted by Merus at 8:28 AM on June 12 [19 favorites]


Yeah and like I said, some of us are old enough to remember the times before tuition fees were even thought of.
posted by tel3path at 8:35 AM on June 12 [1 favorite]


Yeah and like I said, some of us are old enough to remember the times before tuition fees were even thought of.

Ironically it was the Tories who abolished the fees and (New) Labour that brought them back.
posted by Talez at 8:40 AM on June 12


I was in the first year to pay tuition fees and miss the grant, fun fun. Still, the tuition fees I paid were nothing compared to what today's fee-paying graduates will be facing.
posted by Catseye at 8:41 AM on June 12 [1 favorite]




Not "ironically", since Blair was a Thatcherite, literally.
posted by tel3path at 8:43 AM on June 12 [3 favorites]


My family was poor and thanks to taxpayers and the Welfare State I was paid to study at a British university. The student grant paid for my student life (fees, accommodation, books, food, beer, drugs, clothes). The UK was able to do that then (1967-70).

My nephew and niece in the 21st century? Up to their eyeballs in debt.
posted by Mister Bijou at 8:53 AM on June 12 [4 favorites]


Yeah. So it's really more like the government that doesn't understand how finances work, if they can't figure out how to pay for stuff they used to be able to afford.

Maybe if they spent less on avocado toast and duck houses.
posted by tel3path at 9:03 AM on June 12 [13 favorites]


and snap elections.
posted by Catseye at 9:05 AM on June 12 [7 favorites]


And massively complex negotiations for extricating the nation from the continent next door.
posted by tel3path at 9:08 AM on June 12 [3 favorites]


As someone who works with book history, today is a day of ALL THE GIFTS.
posted by kariebookish at 9:09 AM on June 12 [7 favorites]


Something I just learned from the Gruaniad Live updates...
Normally appearances by the prime minister at the [Conservative backbench 1922 committee] are marked by the excited banging of desks.
Jolly japes, eh, chaps!
posted by Mister Bijou at 9:24 AM on June 12 [2 favorites]


Normally appearances by the prime minister at the [Conservative backbench 1922 committee] are marked by the excited banging of desks.
Presumably the banging of hands is considered more propitious than the banging of heads.
posted by rongorongo at 9:39 AM on June 12 [1 favorite]


Theresa May met with her Conservative backbenchers and declares: “I got us into this mess, and I’m going to get us out of it”.
posted by EndsOfInvention at 9:42 AM on June 12


If I hear one more fucking fifty something minister who lived through free tuition and steadily growing wages telling me I don't understand how finances work, I will spit nails.

Motherfucker, all I do is figure out how finances work. If you're under 40 and middle class or lower it's a necessary survival skill, purely because of the debt load and shitty wages.
posted by Happy Dave at 9:43 AM on June 12 [31 favorites]


You know... I have to wonder if TM wearing red on election day *really was* a sign that she just wants to make it all go away by losing.

Saying she got them into this and she's gonna get them out? Doctor, it hurts when I do this...
posted by tel3path at 9:45 AM on June 12


May, 2017: Young people are too lazy too vote.
June, 2017: Young people are too stupid to vote for the right person.

Anyway, alls I can say is that with nearly 70% voter turnout, well-done, UK! I believe Canada had the same voter turnout in 2015, up ten percentage points.
posted by My Dad at 9:48 AM on June 12 [6 favorites]


"I got us into this mess, and I’m going to get us out of it."

Footage has emerged from the meeting.
posted by MattWPBS at 9:53 AM on June 12 [4 favorites]


Best Tweet:
I was Director of the @UKParlArchives for 6 years and I can tell you that the Queen's Speech is not made of parchment, goat or otherwise.
posted by Devonian at 10:02 AM on June 12 [6 favorites]


MODEST PROPOSAL: Write the speech on the side of one of the horses and she can deliver it from Ascot.
posted by Huffy Puffy at 10:13 AM on June 12 [7 favorites]


For any of y'all like me in the States who were totally clueless about the Queen's Speech, here's a Wikipedia page about the Opening of Parliament. It's a pretty interesting read, as it describes the ceremony for the Opening of Parliament, and the historical reasons for some of the stranger customs.

Some highlights:

* The cellars of Palace of Westminster is searched due to the Gunpowder Plot of 1605, wherein English Catholics tried to overthrow the Protestant King James I.

* The Vice-Chamberlain of the Queen's household is taken as a hostage to ensure the safe return of the Monarch: "The tradition stems from the time of Charles I, who had a contentious relationship with Parliament and was eventually beheaded in 1649 during the Civil War between the monarchy and Parliament. A copy of Charles I's death warrant is displayed in the robing room used by the Queen as a ceremonial reminder of what can happen to a Monarch who attempts to interfere with Parliament."

* The Monarch delivers a speech outlining the legislative goals/agenda of the the government. The speech is written by the PM and her ministers. The Monarch reads the speech from the faux-goatskin vellum paper.

* After the Monarch's Speech, the Houses of Parliament debate the contents of the speech? I'm not totally clear on this point, so if anyone has any further information, I'd love to hear it.
posted by Excommunicated Cardinal at 10:57 AM on June 12 [4 favorites]


The #DUPMovies hashtag is trending on UK Twitter. Scrolling down (am having problems linking to them), a few of the suggestions are:

- I know where you marched last summer.
- Orange is the new orange.
- Prejudice and prejudice.
- One flute over the cuckoo's nest.
- Crocodile Drumcree.
- Lock, Stock and 2 thousand smoking boilers.
- Born on the Twelfth of July.
- How Orange was my valley.
- Dante's Renewable Heat Incentive Scheme.
- Raging Bullshit.
- Eternal Downpour of the Narrow Mind.
posted by Wordshore at 10:59 AM on June 12 [12 favorites]


Theresa May met with her Conservative backbenchers and declares: “I got us into this mess, and I’m going to get us out of it”.

That's the sort of thing Stan says half-way through a Laurel and Hardy movie. With hilarious consequences.
posted by Grangousier at 11:14 AM on June 12 [9 favorites]




Re the Queen's Speech, I'm really looking forward to Dennis Skinner's intervention this year.
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 11:22 AM on June 12 [1 favorite]


> Re the Queen's Speech, I'm really looking forward to Dennis Skinner's intervention this year.

Same here.

"It tolls for thee, Tessie..."
posted by Morfil Ffyrnig at 11:34 AM on June 12 [3 favorites]


BBC presenter laughs in the face of a Tory MP using the 'strong and stable' line.

Good, it's about time the media stopped letting politicians blithely sidestep any and all questions with braindead catchphrases and repetitions. Not that I think it'll last mind.
posted by Happy Dave at 11:58 AM on June 12 [5 favorites]


After the Monarch's Speech, the Houses of Parliament debate the contents of the speech

Yep, it contains the legislative agenda for that session of parliament, so it has to be passed in the vote. So everyone says what they think about the speech, before they vote to pass it. (Assuming they have an adequate majority to pass it, otherwise things get messy, and into uncharted waters that were only created in 2011).
posted by ambrosen at 12:01 PM on June 12 [4 favorites]


Which is why they can't have it without the DUP being locked down.

However, even then - there's no reason the DUP couldn't just decide not to honour an agreement. Normally, such behaviour would sully a party's reputation and lead to it not being invited into any other partnerships, but it's not as if either would particularly worry this lot. There really is no other group in Parliament you'd be less eager to rely on.

As the Fixed Term Parliament Act sets out, there's effectively only two ways for a government to go down - a majority vote of no confidence, and resignation. All the other things that used to make up 'confidence and supply' are excluded; it doesn't matter if the Queen's Speech is voted down or a budget is kicked out, the government stays in office. It's just that they can't do anything in Parliament. If they do resign, or if there is a vote of no confidence, then the opposition in the Commons can try and put together a government within 14 days - but here I haven't quite worked out what that means. Thazza buzzed off to kiss the glove ASAP after the election, but if that's all it takes to 'form a government' then perhaps even that deadline doesn't apply. Do we have a government now, given that it doesn't seem possible to start Parliament?

Another great gift from David Cameron, whose historical reputation as a far-sighted leader and defender of democracy is going to be a thing of wonder.
posted by Devonian at 12:25 PM on June 12 [15 favorites]


Parliament can just change the Fixed Term Parliament Act, can't it? Can a present Parliament bind a future one?
posted by clawsoon at 2:35 PM on June 12


(Q1) Yes it can and (Q2) no it can't, Clawsoon. Whatever the Parliament of the day says the law is, that's the law. It's one of the reasons that Act was a complete fucking farce from start to finish.
posted by howfar at 2:41 PM on June 12 [6 favorites]


Parliament presumably can't change the law while we're between parliaments though so maybe we'll get stuck in a constant new elections loop and remain in government-free legislative limbo forever.
posted by dng at 2:46 PM on June 12 [4 favorites]


Technically not actual goat skin any more

So you're saying this goat is a scapegoat onto which they've unloaded all their real problems of trying to form a government?
posted by zachlipton at 2:47 PM on June 12 [6 favorites]


Electoral Calculus have looked at the new constituency boundaries and reckon that they would make hardly any difference to the current relative positions of the parties in the current parliament with the Tories still being short of a majority.

What is interesting is that the DUP would lose 3 (like nearly a third of their seats) and Sinn Féin would gain 2 (adding like a third)... fun times getting that confirmed in parliament under the current set up. Still it don't come in until 2018. A lot can, and probably will, change before then.
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 2:51 PM on June 12 [4 favorites]


dng: Parliament presumably can't change the law while we're between parliaments though so maybe we'll get stuck in a constant new elections loop and remain in government-free legislative limbo forever.

You've got a long way to go before you catch up with Belgium.
posted by clawsoon at 2:53 PM on June 12 [2 favorites]


Parliament presumably can't change the law while we're between parliaments though

In theory Parliament is the council summoned by the monarch and she can do that even if a previous parliament voted "no more parliaments ever". The new parliament wouldn't even have to void the previous law, because a previous parliament cannot bind a later one. Now, if a monarch tried to play silly buggers with this reserve power, instead of just using it to fix a broken system, you'd probably have a revolution, deaccession, or execution (ranked from most to least likely) in short order, but the solution is there if it is ever needed.
posted by Joe in Australia at 2:58 PM on June 12 [1 favorite]


Parliament presumably can't change the law while we're between parliaments though so maybe we'll get stuck in a constant new elections loop and remain in government-free legislative limbo forever.

Because the one thing you want while the Brexit bomb keeps ticking is parliamentary fuckery.
posted by Talez at 2:59 PM on June 12 [2 favorites]


If we just ignore it maybe it'll all go away
posted by dng at 3:03 PM on June 12 [2 favorites]


So regarding the vellum thing. *puts on sunglasses* Guess that'll be a... scraped goat scapegoat. YEEEAHHHH!!!
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 3:04 PM on June 12 [12 favorites]


In a letter to Theresa May, deputy Labour leader Tom Watson said it had been "suggested" to him that Mr Murdoch, owner of The Times and The Sun, had lobbied the PM for Mr Gove's return to front-bench politics.
Following his departure as Justice Secretary Mr Gove returned to work at The Times as a columnist
posted by adamvasco at 3:08 PM on June 12 [1 favorite]


Looking forward to the forthcoming BBC drama 20 days – Battle for Supremacy (think it's on next Sunday) about the Tory leadership election after the last election... perfectly timed to remind everyone what an absolute shit Gove was.
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 3:13 PM on June 12 [4 favorites]


You've got a long way to go before you catch up with Belgium.

And so, the UK asks Belgium to hold its beer.
posted by acb at 4:39 PM on June 12 [6 favorites]


Based just on where this is being reported, I assume this is a thing that Sinn Fein always does while still abstaining, but who knows, 2017 is wild.
posted by Copronymus at 12:22 AM on June 13 [4 favorites]


In a week's time, a Conservative Queen's Speech will be delivered. Gove was on the radio this morning talking about taking up his post as Environment Secretary. The newspapers are reporting that the 1922 Committee "bought May some time". The future of the country's leadership is being decided in shadowy internal Conservative Party meetings and committees and WhatsApp groups. This is not over. We're just where we were a year ago, with the Conservative Party in the driving seat.

No matter how many glowing comment pieces appear in the Guardian, the Labour Party did not win this election and Corbyn doesn't have the numbers to form a government. With the help of the execrable DUP, May does. Speaking as a Labour member and Corbyn supporter, a little more recognition of that fact wouldn't go amiss.

People are talking as if the fight is coming to an end, the Conservative government is over and we're just waiting for Corbyn's coronation at some point in the next few weeks or months. That's not the case. The Conservatives will cling to power by hook or by crook and this will not be easy. The country is still facing huge economic, environmental and social problems and we've still got a government that will do nothing about them - even less, now that they are more laser-focused on saving their own hides.
posted by winterhill at 1:07 AM on June 13 [19 favorites]


Minority government is a poisoned chalice, and May is going to be held accountable for every bad compromise, every lost vote, every piece of stalled legislation. In the meantime Labour has fresh talent and more constituency offices to help reposition itself for when the Tory bus overturns and a new government is needed.
posted by Joe in Australia at 1:52 AM on June 13 [3 favorites]


In 2007, during the political chaos in Lebanon before the Doha Agreement, there was a big billboard for a clothing store in Achrafieh, which offered a "10% discount until we have a government". For years I have recounted this story as an example of how widely political experiences and expectations differ between countries, little suspecting that the Conservative and Unionist Party would be so astonishingly idiotic as to invite pure chaos into our political system during one of the most significant constitutional events in British history. Maybe we can all going to have to get used to chaos. Now where can I get that discount?
posted by howfar at 2:11 AM on June 13 [2 favorites]




Amazing nugget buried in this Polly Toynbee piece - apparently the DUP only bother to show up in parliament for a day and half every week.

And amusing to see Labour right wing / ex-SNP Polly suddenly become a full paid-up Corbynista
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 2:34 AM on June 13 [4 favorites]


Yeah. It's been weird tracking the Guardian's left turn. I fear the Greeks
posted by glasseyes at 2:57 AM on June 13 [1 favorite]


The Guardian is a mainstream paper, albeit one with a broadly “progressive”/“liberal” mission. When Blairite neo-Thatcherism was the mainstream centre-left, they were around that, occasionally floating some wild ideas from a bit to the left of there. Now that the Overton window's shifting, they will shift with it.
posted by acb at 3:10 AM on June 13 [4 favorites]


New Labour MP Hugh Gaffney turned up to parliament in his old work clothes (as Keir Hardy did)
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 3:15 AM on June 13 [5 favorites]


Now where can I get that discount?

Assuming you're paying in Euros or dollars, it's been automatically applied by the markets. Can't promise sterling's fall will offset inflation (now at a four year high! Come see the fiscal responsibility of the right!), which is tracking my blood pressure as my media fills up with Gove and IDS.

I think the most interesting immediate developments to watch are the details of the DUP agreement, which if not announced in the next 24-48 hours will cause serious problems, and whether the scuttlebut about the softies on both sides of the House getting together will provoke an official cross-party Brexit committee.
posted by Devonian at 3:37 AM on June 13 [1 favorite]


(ETA - looks like the Ministry for Brexit is in trouble, according to the Guardian:

"Two of Brexit department's four ministers leave week before Brexit talks start

Last night Downing Street announced a new round of ministerial appointments, along with the news that four ministers have left the government: Mike Penning, Sir Oliver Heald, Robert Halfon and David Jones.

Jones was a minister in the Brexit department. The department has also lost another minister, Lord Bridges, although No 10 has not announced this. Bridges has resigned to pursue business interests, according to a Whitehall source. A Old Etonian and a former Conservative party official, Bridges was made a peer by David Cameron.

The departure of two DExEU (Department for Exiting the European Union) officials just a week before Brexit talks begin might be regarded as less than ideal. There were only four DExEU ministers. Two of them have now left, although a new one, Lady Anelay, was appointed yesterday."


Which to me looks like there has to be a reconstruction of governance on Brexit negotiations, May has little authority, and the Ministry's in a mess. Practically speaking, there's no there there.)
posted by Devonian at 4:04 AM on June 13 [1 favorite]


Those ministers were holding May back, anyway. You just see how she performs once the deck chairs arecabinet is rearranged and she can work on getting the best possible deal from the iceberg.
posted by Joe in Australia at 4:45 AM on June 13 [2 favorites]


That should be "from the EU", sorry.
posted by Joe in Australia at 5:01 AM on June 13 [5 favorites]


And so, the UK asks Belgium to hold its beer.

So, yeah, about holding beer, Tories need a few lessons.
posted by ambrosen at 5:11 AM on June 13 [11 favorites]


So, yeah, about holding beer, Tories need a few lessons.

Ye gods. That's not only a photo of someone who's never held a pint, it's a photo of someone who's never held a glass without a stem. Was he weaned on chablis?
posted by rory at 5:32 AM on June 13 [6 favorites]


Man, I keep checking, May's still there. Wat a gwan, UK? Have a word with yourself.


A long time ago my sister had her second child. Five days later her two-year-old, who had been very patient up till then, said 'Mummy, the new baby's still here?'
posted by glasseyes at 5:47 AM on June 13 [6 favorites]


David Davis and the cabinet greyhairs; Boris and his acolytes; Michael Gove and the hardcore Brexiters; Nicky Morgan and the soft Brexiters; Ruth Davidson and the Scottish Tories; Backbench social justice warriors.