Where Did All the Advertising Jobs Go?
February 21, 2018 4:57 PM Subscribe
The computers ate them, obviously. When you can microtarget your audience and actually have data-driven strategies based on conversion metrics, why the heck would you waste money on print or TV ads?
If you think it’s bad when they put the truckers out of work, imagine how upset folks will get when they start making white collar jobs obsolete faster than workers are retiring.
This is the biggest elephant in the room for society in the next 25 years, and no one is prepared for the social upheaval it’ll produce. It will make the Industrial Revolution look like a walk in the park by comparison.
posted by leotrotsky at 6:03 PM on February 21, 2018 [40 favorites]
If you think it’s bad when they put the truckers out of work, imagine how upset folks will get when they start making white collar jobs obsolete faster than workers are retiring.
This is the biggest elephant in the room for society in the next 25 years, and no one is prepared for the social upheaval it’ll produce. It will make the Industrial Revolution look like a walk in the park by comparison.
posted by leotrotsky at 6:03 PM on February 21, 2018 [40 favorites]
If you’re future-proofing, tell your kids to go into jobs that are high skill and need a physical person to deliver (surgery, dentistry, litigation) or make sure they get really really good at math and statistics. But there are only so many jobs for the designers of the systems that will run our economy in the future. Socialism or barbarism, gang.
posted by leotrotsky at 6:07 PM on February 21, 2018 [18 favorites]
posted by leotrotsky at 6:07 PM on February 21, 2018 [18 favorites]
Working as a repair technician is probably a good bet for the near future, until they build robots that troubleshoot and repair other robots.
posted by Mr.Encyclopedia at 6:30 PM on February 21, 2018 [3 favorites]
posted by Mr.Encyclopedia at 6:30 PM on February 21, 2018 [3 favorites]
This is the biggest elephant in the room for society in the next 25 years, and no one is prepared for the social upheaval it’ll produce. It will make the Industrial Revolution look like a walk in the park by comparison. posted by leotrotsky
Are we still doing eponysterical. Because.
posted by furnace.heart at 6:39 PM on February 21, 2018 [32 favorites]
Are we still doing eponysterical. Because.
posted by furnace.heart at 6:39 PM on February 21, 2018 [32 favorites]
Henry Ford killed more horses then all the Henry Kings combined.
The key is to transcend personal conveyance and transportation of manufactured/ raw materials. For example why does Bezos want his own fleet?
Middlefolk. My first paying job was stamp sealing envelopes, I was 6. Then the office got a stamp machine but I learned that and then I learned to cut the lawn at the office.
So, when stamps aren't required and the office moves, what's an 10 yr old to do but go down to computer science lab at the university and wait an hour for 20 minutes time on a photon box circa 1978.
posted by clavdivs at 6:45 PM on February 21, 2018 [5 favorites]
The key is to transcend personal conveyance and transportation of manufactured/ raw materials. For example why does Bezos want his own fleet?
Middlefolk. My first paying job was stamp sealing envelopes, I was 6. Then the office got a stamp machine but I learned that and then I learned to cut the lawn at the office.
So, when stamps aren't required and the office moves, what's an 10 yr old to do but go down to computer science lab at the university and wait an hour for 20 minutes time on a photon box circa 1978.
posted by clavdivs at 6:45 PM on February 21, 2018 [5 favorites]
Where I worked, in the past 35 years the number of people needed to run the plant accounts / finance department has dropped by over 90 percent. I know this because I did some work in one plant office which used to hold 50 people and now needs less than 10, so it's a vast empty space. (The other offices have been decommisoned / repurposed). Talking to some veterans from that time it's not surprising - with no calculators and computers and electronic bank transfers, even doing payroll for 4000 workers was a gigantic task, never mind inventory management when a billion dollars of parts (inflation adjusted) flowed through the plant each year.
I imagine a similar upheaval happening at the time but as it turns out, accounting and finance jobs are still going strong, for now... It's hard to predict the future.
posted by xdvesper at 6:54 PM on February 21, 2018 [7 favorites]
I imagine a similar upheaval happening at the time but as it turns out, accounting and finance jobs are still going strong, for now... It's hard to predict the future.
posted by xdvesper at 6:54 PM on February 21, 2018 [7 favorites]
An industry around stealing and redirecting your attention and memory is being better done by algorithms than humans.
posted by suedehead at 6:59 PM on February 21, 2018 [5 favorites]
posted by suedehead at 6:59 PM on February 21, 2018 [5 favorites]
There was a big purge back when Clear Channel bought all the local radio stations and billboards, and rolled in with their National/Regional sales teams, and put all the local ad guys out of business.
posted by mikelieman at 7:10 PM on February 21, 2018 [4 favorites]
posted by mikelieman at 7:10 PM on February 21, 2018 [4 favorites]
When you can microtarget your audience and actually have data-driven strategies based on conversion metrics, why the heck would you waste money on print or TV ads?
Inertia, as far as I can tell. Whenever I have to place a newspaper or TV ad at work because That's Just What We've Always Done So Shut Up and Do It it feels like throwing stupid amounts of money away and it kind of is.
posted by jason_steakums at 7:10 PM on February 21, 2018
Inertia, as far as I can tell. Whenever I have to place a newspaper or TV ad at work because That's Just What We've Always Done So Shut Up and Do It it feels like throwing stupid amounts of money away and it kind of is.
posted by jason_steakums at 7:10 PM on February 21, 2018
I used to be convinced the robopocalypse was coming, but in recent years I've changed my mind. The evidence that this time will be different, compared to Excel, or the production line, or the industrial revolution, and jobs removed won't result in jobs created elsewhere, is fairly weak.
It's also in the interests of employers to keep employees pliable by telling them their jobs are under threat by robots. McDonald's has deployed kiosks in America and Australia, but they've told completely opposite stories about why. In America, they say the kiosk is replacing human labour. In Australia, they say the kiosks are creating jobs to deal with the special orders.
Given that the McDonald's Australia argument has been how it's worked in the past - new technology displacing a job has led to increased expectations for what's possible, which has driven new employment - I'm more convinced than ever that the only thing special about this round of redundancies is late capitalism bullshittery.
posted by Merus at 7:14 PM on February 21, 2018 [9 favorites]
It's also in the interests of employers to keep employees pliable by telling them their jobs are under threat by robots. McDonald's has deployed kiosks in America and Australia, but they've told completely opposite stories about why. In America, they say the kiosk is replacing human labour. In Australia, they say the kiosks are creating jobs to deal with the special orders.
Given that the McDonald's Australia argument has been how it's worked in the past - new technology displacing a job has led to increased expectations for what's possible, which has driven new employment - I'm more convinced than ever that the only thing special about this round of redundancies is late capitalism bullshittery.
posted by Merus at 7:14 PM on February 21, 2018 [9 favorites]
The argument seems to be that the work has moved out of ad agencies, not actually disappeared?
posted by Segundus at 7:44 PM on February 21, 2018 [5 favorites]
posted by Segundus at 7:44 PM on February 21, 2018 [5 favorites]
The same can be said of other communications industries, such as journalism. It's not just an advertising problem.
posted by Alexandra Kitty at 8:11 PM on February 21, 2018
posted by Alexandra Kitty at 8:11 PM on February 21, 2018
Socialism or barbarism, gang.
Ha, how quaint. No, the ever-more-likely third option is varying degrees of corporate feudalism, with some form of minimal Universal Basic Income to keep the masses from getting too desperate. I suppose that's a kind of socialism, though probably not what Luxemburg (or Engels) had in mind.
posted by Sangermaine at 8:48 PM on February 21, 2018 [4 favorites]
Ha, how quaint. No, the ever-more-likely third option is varying degrees of corporate feudalism, with some form of minimal Universal Basic Income to keep the masses from getting too desperate. I suppose that's a kind of socialism, though probably not what Luxemburg (or Engels) had in mind.
posted by Sangermaine at 8:48 PM on February 21, 2018 [4 favorites]
The reason that TV and magazine advertising still exists is that it’s used more for branding rather than driving sales. Web advertising is bought in bulk and spread all over the place, and aside from the ad targeting that we’re familiar with, there’s no one paying attention to what content it’s placed next to. TV advertising is sold on the basis of the shows it’s placed in. E.g. Coca Cola thinks “Modern Family” fits their brand identity and the kind of consumer they want to reach for a particular campaign, and so Coca Cola buys spots in it. Most of the advertising for TV is booked at the upfronts when broadcasters roll out their shows for the next season. It’s kind of a totally different world from digital. The bulk model that digital advertising uses has been tried with TV and advertisers didn’t buy it. Ads in subprime slots on cable channels are sold that way though.
The other thing to remember about digital advertising is that no one ever clicks on the ads except by accident and as many of half of impressions are fraudulent.
posted by chrchr at 9:29 PM on February 21, 2018 [9 favorites]
The other thing to remember about digital advertising is that no one ever clicks on the ads except by accident and as many of half of impressions are fraudulent.
posted by chrchr at 9:29 PM on February 21, 2018 [9 favorites]
The other thing to remember about digital advertising is that no one ever clicks on the ads except by accident and as many of half of impressions are fraudulent.
Fucking this. I can't be the only one waiting for the bottom to fall out from the online advertising market. I have literally never met a person who seriously clicked on an internet ad with intent to buy whatever was being advertised. I know some plenty stupid people, so it's not like its implausible, yet, somehow, I still know none who have.
The argument seems to be that the work has moved out of ad agencies, not actually disappeared?
It's more like they just kept cutting staff and making the staff that was kept around do all the work the old staff used to do plus their own jobs for the same pay. Or that's how it played out the multiple times I was laid off in the local television industry before I just said fuck it and left the industry. When the CEO flies to town on a private plane to tell everyone why we can't afford it, you kind of start to just know it's a load of shit intended to line that motherfuckers pockets, simply because they know the labor market is stretched thin and they can make unreasonable demands and people will suck it up and accept it. So yeah, the work never disappeared, it just got divvied up among a smaller number of people who didn't get an according increase in pay.
Remember that graph about wages versus productivity? Did everyone forget that while every job we've worked for the last decade which has been perpetually understaffed that we've still somehow been knocking productivity gains out of the fucking park year after year? Makes ya fucking think, doesn't it? When the technology changes and allows you to employ half the number of people to do the same amount of work, that's what fucking happens. They just find an excuse (any excuse, wages are too high, we're creating jobs, it's always a fucking lie, there's no laws saying companies can't just fucking gaslight the living shit out of society, so they fucking do.) to make half as many workers do the same amount of work or more for the same pay.
But to be frank, considering ad agencies exist to, as I said, gaslight the living shit out of society, I can't wait for the whole fucking thing to collapse and rid the fucking world of it's garbage existence that does nothing to truly help humankind. Cue the Bill Hicks link.
posted by deadaluspark at 9:41 PM on February 21, 2018 [27 favorites]
Fucking this. I can't be the only one waiting for the bottom to fall out from the online advertising market. I have literally never met a person who seriously clicked on an internet ad with intent to buy whatever was being advertised. I know some plenty stupid people, so it's not like its implausible, yet, somehow, I still know none who have.
The argument seems to be that the work has moved out of ad agencies, not actually disappeared?
It's more like they just kept cutting staff and making the staff that was kept around do all the work the old staff used to do plus their own jobs for the same pay. Or that's how it played out the multiple times I was laid off in the local television industry before I just said fuck it and left the industry. When the CEO flies to town on a private plane to tell everyone why we can't afford it, you kind of start to just know it's a load of shit intended to line that motherfuckers pockets, simply because they know the labor market is stretched thin and they can make unreasonable demands and people will suck it up and accept it. So yeah, the work never disappeared, it just got divvied up among a smaller number of people who didn't get an according increase in pay.
Remember that graph about wages versus productivity? Did everyone forget that while every job we've worked for the last decade which has been perpetually understaffed that we've still somehow been knocking productivity gains out of the fucking park year after year? Makes ya fucking think, doesn't it? When the technology changes and allows you to employ half the number of people to do the same amount of work, that's what fucking happens. They just find an excuse (any excuse, wages are too high, we're creating jobs, it's always a fucking lie, there's no laws saying companies can't just fucking gaslight the living shit out of society, so they fucking do.) to make half as many workers do the same amount of work or more for the same pay.
But to be frank, considering ad agencies exist to, as I said, gaslight the living shit out of society, I can't wait for the whole fucking thing to collapse and rid the fucking world of it's garbage existence that does nothing to truly help humankind. Cue the Bill Hicks link.
posted by deadaluspark at 9:41 PM on February 21, 2018 [27 favorites]
I was first in content production, then event production, and then later in marketing roles through about 2012 - it was clear both times that the work was getting commodified, and that the real action was happening on the platform side (FB, Google), which I was nowhere close to. Just seemed clear to me that brand building was out the window, and measurement became a lot more important. I pivoted to analytics, and consult with exactly the same clients, but these are focused less on campaigns and more on programs. Longer term, and having something that stands out is less important than consistency. There's still plenty of need for creative, but it is no longer the focus of a marketing plan. My jury is still out on whether I'll be able to keep making a living for my entire "physically able to work" life. I've had to take some pretty massive pivots at least 4 times since the 90s, with ongoing investments in learning new technologies, which have mostly disappeared after 10 years. I haven't won any sweepstakes, but I've managed to avoid becoming unemployable. And I'm grateful for that.
posted by SoundInhabitant at 9:46 PM on February 21, 2018 [6 favorites]
posted by SoundInhabitant at 9:46 PM on February 21, 2018 [6 favorites]
deadaluspark: " I have literally never met a person who seriously clicked on an internet ad with intent to buy whatever was being advertised."
I have on at least a few occasions but always on ads that were either being run by the site I was on/some sister site or where some degree of curation was happening like the Deck ads that Metafilter had.
posted by Mitheral at 9:57 PM on February 21, 2018 [4 favorites]
I have on at least a few occasions but always on ads that were either being run by the site I was on/some sister site or where some degree of curation was happening like the Deck ads that Metafilter had.
posted by Mitheral at 9:57 PM on February 21, 2018 [4 favorites]
I have literally never met a person who seriously clicked on an internet ad with intent to buy whatever was being advertised.
Advertisers and their agencies know this... CTR (click-through rate) isn't a KPI for anyone who is serious. Measurement of things like in-market reach and frequency is important for brand awareness campaigns. For other campaigns, models are built to understand incremental sales lift associated with exposure to online advertising. The industry is also very into viewability and fraud measurement right now too. In fact there is an entire sub-industry dedicated to digital media measurement; full of companies that most people have never heard of.
So much adtech is tracking everything you do online (and offline) and it's not just for targeting - Exobytes of data gets collected, huge and seemingly disparate data sets gets joined and merged, complex statistics get applied, advanced models get deployed on impressive hardware; all just to quantify the effectiveness of that banner ad that was placed in front of you when you read that Mueller article on Vox. And if you had an ad-blocker on... good for you. Be sure to remember never to use Facebook, Google, Amazon or YouTube... Oh, and turn off JavaScript... And don't forget to turn off Bluetooth and Wi-Fi on your phone when you leave the house. (the previous advice might not help at all - your behavioral data will still likely be used to help understand something that is important to an advertiser)
posted by Stu-Pendous at 11:12 PM on February 21, 2018 [14 favorites]
Advertisers and their agencies know this... CTR (click-through rate) isn't a KPI for anyone who is serious. Measurement of things like in-market reach and frequency is important for brand awareness campaigns. For other campaigns, models are built to understand incremental sales lift associated with exposure to online advertising. The industry is also very into viewability and fraud measurement right now too. In fact there is an entire sub-industry dedicated to digital media measurement; full of companies that most people have never heard of.
So much adtech is tracking everything you do online (and offline) and it's not just for targeting - Exobytes of data gets collected, huge and seemingly disparate data sets gets joined and merged, complex statistics get applied, advanced models get deployed on impressive hardware; all just to quantify the effectiveness of that banner ad that was placed in front of you when you read that Mueller article on Vox. And if you had an ad-blocker on... good for you. Be sure to remember never to use Facebook, Google, Amazon or YouTube... Oh, and turn off JavaScript... And don't forget to turn off Bluetooth and Wi-Fi on your phone when you leave the house. (the previous advice might not help at all - your behavioral data will still likely be used to help understand something that is important to an advertiser)
posted by Stu-Pendous at 11:12 PM on February 21, 2018 [14 favorites]
It's interesting how poorly the robots seem to be doing at this job. Just like editorial: The robots are replacing people, but they're not very good at it. Makes me think of the first shoddy mass-produced cotton clothing to come out of Lancashire in the First Industrial Revolution.
posted by clawsoon at 11:24 PM on February 21, 2018
posted by clawsoon at 11:24 PM on February 21, 2018
The robots are replacing people, but they're not very good at it.
That’s okay. They’re much cheaper.
posted by chrchr at 11:51 PM on February 21, 2018 [6 favorites]
That’s okay. They’re much cheaper.
posted by chrchr at 11:51 PM on February 21, 2018 [6 favorites]
If you’re future-proofing, tell your kids to go into jobs that are high skill and need a physical person to deliver (surgery, dentistry, litigation)
Not so much, really. Watson is already outperforming doctors by 15-20% in diagnosis accuracy and he's already passed the medical boards. He will be replacing surgeons within the next 3-5 years. Already, Lasik (eye surgery) is basically impossible to do by hand (it actually happens between blinks), so I wouldn't count on something that human lives depend on being left in faulty human hands much longer.
posted by sexyrobot at 12:36 AM on February 22, 2018 [2 favorites]
Not so much, really. Watson is already outperforming doctors by 15-20% in diagnosis accuracy and he's already passed the medical boards. He will be replacing surgeons within the next 3-5 years. Already, Lasik (eye surgery) is basically impossible to do by hand (it actually happens between blinks), so I wouldn't count on something that human lives depend on being left in faulty human hands much longer.
posted by sexyrobot at 12:36 AM on February 22, 2018 [2 favorites]
I have literally never met a person who seriously clicked on an internet ad with intent to buy whatever was being advertised.
Periodically I get ads that are just about perfectly targeted for me. It's rare, but it happens, and suddenly I'm looking at a product that, yes, surprisingly, I was unaware of but I'm genuinely interested in.
Then that ad follows me around like a lost puppy for weeks, whether I don't buy, or buy a competing product, or buy from the actual vendor that's advertising. I'd be annoyed, but I'm mostly reassured that it's apparently not that smart.
posted by wildblueyonder at 12:53 AM on February 22, 2018 [2 favorites]
Periodically I get ads that are just about perfectly targeted for me. It's rare, but it happens, and suddenly I'm looking at a product that, yes, surprisingly, I was unaware of but I'm genuinely interested in.
Then that ad follows me around like a lost puppy for weeks, whether I don't buy, or buy a competing product, or buy from the actual vendor that's advertising. I'd be annoyed, but I'm mostly reassured that it's apparently not that smart.
posted by wildblueyonder at 12:53 AM on February 22, 2018 [2 favorites]
Remember the old maxim "Only half of advertising works, and nobody knows which half"?
Well, we figured it out, that's all.
I know many a marketing "creative" struggling to find work these days, lamenting that nobody wants to buy their expensive flights of fancy any more, and never stopping to think that it's because they don't work.
They should be happy they got away with the con as long as they did.
posted by Buck Alec at 1:34 AM on February 22, 2018 [5 favorites]
Well, we figured it out, that's all.
I know many a marketing "creative" struggling to find work these days, lamenting that nobody wants to buy their expensive flights of fancy any more, and never stopping to think that it's because they don't work.
They should be happy they got away with the con as long as they did.
posted by Buck Alec at 1:34 AM on February 22, 2018 [5 favorites]
Well, we figured it out, that's all.
Did we, though? My impression is that the measured effectiveness of online advertising compared to traditional advertising is "meh".
posted by clawsoon at 3:44 AM on February 22, 2018 [2 favorites]
Did we, though? My impression is that the measured effectiveness of online advertising compared to traditional advertising is "meh".
posted by clawsoon at 3:44 AM on February 22, 2018 [2 favorites]
I have literally never met a person who seriously clicked on an internet ad with intent to buy whatever was being advertised. I know some plenty stupid people, so it's not like its implausible, yet, somehow, I still know none who have.
Well, hello. I'm a reasonably smart person; I can spell and everything. Here are things I've clicked on ads for:
- Sales on digital comics collections on Comixology
- Various audio loop bundles
- Some Humble Bundle style game or software bundles
- Specific Udemy courses that I'm interested in
- Checking out (never actually finally buying) neat-looking speakers
- Checking out (and sometimes buying) music
- Kickstarters for board games
Ads sometimes do a pretty good job of figuring out what stuff I like and put stuff that I'm not aware of, am legitimately interested in, and want to buy, in my path. I've found some pretty great stuff through ads.
posted by Shepherd at 4:09 AM on February 22, 2018 [10 favorites]
Well, hello. I'm a reasonably smart person; I can spell and everything. Here are things I've clicked on ads for:
- Sales on digital comics collections on Comixology
- Various audio loop bundles
- Some Humble Bundle style game or software bundles
- Specific Udemy courses that I'm interested in
- Checking out (never actually finally buying) neat-looking speakers
- Checking out (and sometimes buying) music
- Kickstarters for board games
Ads sometimes do a pretty good job of figuring out what stuff I like and put stuff that I'm not aware of, am legitimately interested in, and want to buy, in my path. I've found some pretty great stuff through ads.
posted by Shepherd at 4:09 AM on February 22, 2018 [10 favorites]
Not so much, really. Watson is already outperforming doctors by 15-20% in diagnosis accuracy and he's already passed the medical boards. He will be replacing surgeons within the next 3-5 years. Already, Lasik (eye surgery) is basically impossible to do by hand (it actually happens between blinks), so I wouldn't count on something that human lives depend on being left in faulty human hands much longer
You’re paying for the eyes and brain as much as the hands. Can the robot look at the organ in question and anticipate possible complications? Can it notice them if they arise, quickly adapt to address them? I don’t know, but I doubt it.
posted by leotrotsky at 4:21 AM on February 22, 2018 [1 favorite]
You’re paying for the eyes and brain as much as the hands. Can the robot look at the organ in question and anticipate possible complications? Can it notice them if they arise, quickly adapt to address them? I don’t know, but I doubt it.
posted by leotrotsky at 4:21 AM on February 22, 2018 [1 favorite]
>>When you can microtarget your audience and actually have data-driven strategies based on conversion metrics, why the heck would you waste money on print or TV ads?
> Inertia, as far as I can tell.
Its a few years since I worked in the industry - but at that time there were a number of people - on both client and agency side - who were accustomed to working with the power and glamour of large TV budgets. More fun to be arranging a shoot in the Caribbean than paying to buy into some propellor-head's algorithm thingy. These were the more senior, influential staff and they were going to give up their power and glamour without a big fight.
I guess some of those folk are still holding sway. Even as the world moves to Netflix and forgets what a TV advert even is.
posted by rongorongo at 4:47 AM on February 22, 2018
> Inertia, as far as I can tell.
Its a few years since I worked in the industry - but at that time there were a number of people - on both client and agency side - who were accustomed to working with the power and glamour of large TV budgets. More fun to be arranging a shoot in the Caribbean than paying to buy into some propellor-head's algorithm thingy. These were the more senior, influential staff and they were going to give up their power and glamour without a big fight.
I guess some of those folk are still holding sway. Even as the world moves to Netflix and forgets what a TV advert even is.
posted by rongorongo at 4:47 AM on February 22, 2018
new technology displacing a job has led to increased expectations for what's possible, which has driven new employment
Remember when we switched from whale oil to petroleum? Shifting from human jobs to automation in industry after industry is probably like that, always a magic resource just lying around that we can consume to the point of obliteration with no consequences, again and again.
posted by XMLicious at 5:08 AM on February 22, 2018 [1 favorite]
Can the robot look at the organ in question and anticipate possible complications? Can it notice them if they arise, quickly adapt to address them? I don’t know, but I doubt it.
That's okay, they're much cheaper.
posted by condour75 at 5:52 AM on February 22, 2018
That's okay, they're much cheaper.
posted by condour75 at 5:52 AM on February 22, 2018
I have my browser set to allow none intrusive ads - in fairness to the browser writers.
I see no ads - I suspect because the marketing people push the boundaries too far.
posted by Burn_IT at 5:52 AM on February 22, 2018
I see no ads - I suspect because the marketing people push the boundaries too far.
posted by Burn_IT at 5:52 AM on February 22, 2018
It's odd that we are asking why a certain way of selling more and more things we don't need to one another is failing and not why we are still in an endless loop of selling more and more things we don't need to one another.
posted by xingcat at 6:18 AM on February 22, 2018 [4 favorites]
posted by xingcat at 6:18 AM on February 22, 2018 [4 favorites]
imagine how upset folks will get when they start making white collar jobs obsolete faster than workers are retiring
I work as a bookkeeper.
Here is my typical work: Our vendors use their computers to print out paper invoices, which are physically transported to me, where I then put the information into another computer. I then use my computer to print a paper check, which is physically transported to them, where they then update the info in their computer. Then they physically transport the paper check to a bank, where the computers at their bank, our bank, and in between decrease the balance in our account and increase the balance in their account.
It's obvious that these computers should simply talk amongst themselves without the paper, mail delivery, and human intermediaries. It's just a matter of time until such a system is developed and adopted.
I expect most bookkeeping jobs to disappear within a generation.
posted by Jacqueline at 7:08 AM on February 22, 2018 [3 favorites]
I work as a bookkeeper.
Here is my typical work: Our vendors use their computers to print out paper invoices, which are physically transported to me, where I then put the information into another computer. I then use my computer to print a paper check, which is physically transported to them, where they then update the info in their computer. Then they physically transport the paper check to a bank, where the computers at their bank, our bank, and in between decrease the balance in our account and increase the balance in their account.
It's obvious that these computers should simply talk amongst themselves without the paper, mail delivery, and human intermediaries. It's just a matter of time until such a system is developed and adopted.
I expect most bookkeeping jobs to disappear within a generation.
posted by Jacqueline at 7:08 AM on February 22, 2018 [3 favorites]
It's obvious that these computers should simply talk amongst themselves without the paper, mail delivery, and human intermediaries.
I'm sitting at work (being naughty reading MetaFilter on the clock), installing a computer program on a customer's server that does exactly this. There are stops along the workflow for human input to approve and/or verify the data, but paperless is the end intent. Invoices come in, data is automatically read off the page and referenced in other databases, approval requests sent out to the appropriate departments who electronically enter what accounts it will be paid from (accounts chosen by the automated system based on what is allowed for that invoice), and then it is automatically added to a batch for payment.
(Although there's still paper involved, because we can't control vendors who send in paper invoices (email would be automatically handled) and the AS400 isn't able to ACH funds so a paper check is still cut, but it's definitely possible)
But these Business Process Automation processes are our bread and butter, and we've been hiring due to demand, so I guess it's a whole 'nother layer before I'm replaced by computers that can do the programming and configuration that we do.
posted by AzraelBrown at 7:37 AM on February 22, 2018 [2 favorites]
I'm sitting at work (being naughty reading MetaFilter on the clock), installing a computer program on a customer's server that does exactly this. There are stops along the workflow for human input to approve and/or verify the data, but paperless is the end intent. Invoices come in, data is automatically read off the page and referenced in other databases, approval requests sent out to the appropriate departments who electronically enter what accounts it will be paid from (accounts chosen by the automated system based on what is allowed for that invoice), and then it is automatically added to a batch for payment.
(Although there's still paper involved, because we can't control vendors who send in paper invoices (email would be automatically handled) and the AS400 isn't able to ACH funds so a paper check is still cut, but it's definitely possible)
But these Business Process Automation processes are our bread and butter, and we've been hiring due to demand, so I guess it's a whole 'nother layer before I'm replaced by computers that can do the programming and configuration that we do.
posted by AzraelBrown at 7:37 AM on February 22, 2018 [2 favorites]
There is a shit ton of adtech services out there. And advertisers are not particularly impressed. Just over a year ago, the Global Chief Brand Officer for Procter & Gamble, the world’s largest advertiser, announced that “we have a media supply chain that is murky at best and fraudulent at worst.”
In March 2017 Google faced a YouTube boycott from unhappy customers after its programmatic advertising system placed mainstream brand ads next to extremist and offensive material. (That is an ongoing problem, as noted above, and partly why so many advertisers are bringing a bunch of ad stuff in-house.)
There is also a shit ton of fraud. Last year an independent researcher determined that over the course of a single day, advertisers had spent $3.5 million on fake video inventory pretending to be from the sites of 16 premier publishers.
Note: I am no fan of Uber. Still, I found it interesting that when Uber’s Head of Rider Programmatic Marketing had the company test several small branding campaigns, “We were shocked to learn the load rate was 50%. A load rate of 50% means that of 1 million impressions we won and paid for, only 500,000 were served.”
After investigating the problem, Uber discovered that some exchanges were not validating their inventory for a certain type of compliance. “Major exchanges are not taking their duty to advertisers seriously,” according to Rosenblatt. No kidding. So I am not surprised that the number of traditional advertising jobs has dropped. There are fewer jobs as more tasks become automated and, also, the tech companies are not especially trustworthy and, apparently, neither are the advertising agencies nor the publishers.
As a former journalist, I am not weeping over this particular development but I do not celebrate lost jobs either. Still, this is the reality. This is where we are. I only know about so-called programmatic advertising because I recently interviewed for a job with a company that has a "creative management platform" that helps clients build, without coding, html5 banner ads.
I wasn't hired because I was too expensive. (Such a relief; I would have been miserable.) That I was even considered for the job was surprising. It's not actually enough to be a good writer these days, and it hasn't been for ages. Now you have to be a good writer plus decent graphic designer, video editor, SEO expert, CMS expert, etc. in order to get a job. I am never going to be all of those things but that is what employers are asking for. So I poke along as a self-employed person in my increasingly narrow niche and wonder, like so many others, how long I can manage. Yikes.
posted by Bella Donna at 9:13 AM on February 22, 2018 [6 favorites]
In March 2017 Google faced a YouTube boycott from unhappy customers after its programmatic advertising system placed mainstream brand ads next to extremist and offensive material. (That is an ongoing problem, as noted above, and partly why so many advertisers are bringing a bunch of ad stuff in-house.)
There is also a shit ton of fraud. Last year an independent researcher determined that over the course of a single day, advertisers had spent $3.5 million on fake video inventory pretending to be from the sites of 16 premier publishers.
Note: I am no fan of Uber. Still, I found it interesting that when Uber’s Head of Rider Programmatic Marketing had the company test several small branding campaigns, “We were shocked to learn the load rate was 50%. A load rate of 50% means that of 1 million impressions we won and paid for, only 500,000 were served.”
After investigating the problem, Uber discovered that some exchanges were not validating their inventory for a certain type of compliance. “Major exchanges are not taking their duty to advertisers seriously,” according to Rosenblatt. No kidding. So I am not surprised that the number of traditional advertising jobs has dropped. There are fewer jobs as more tasks become automated and, also, the tech companies are not especially trustworthy and, apparently, neither are the advertising agencies nor the publishers.
As a former journalist, I am not weeping over this particular development but I do not celebrate lost jobs either. Still, this is the reality. This is where we are. I only know about so-called programmatic advertising because I recently interviewed for a job with a company that has a "creative management platform" that helps clients build, without coding, html5 banner ads.
I wasn't hired because I was too expensive. (Such a relief; I would have been miserable.) That I was even considered for the job was surprising. It's not actually enough to be a good writer these days, and it hasn't been for ages. Now you have to be a good writer plus decent graphic designer, video editor, SEO expert, CMS expert, etc. in order to get a job. I am never going to be all of those things but that is what employers are asking for. So I poke along as a self-employed person in my increasingly narrow niche and wonder, like so many others, how long I can manage. Yikes.
posted by Bella Donna at 9:13 AM on February 22, 2018 [6 favorites]
Bella Donna, I'm consulting on some programmatic projects right now, and I'm relatively new to the space. For that matter, no one has been at it for long, at least not at the scale we're talking about. Fraud is a big issue, but most of the AdTech industry is suffering measurement issues - fraud or otherwise - of their own making. Such a byzantine ecosystem, where the basic vision is "how can I get more with less?" This drives constant new tech pushes that route around old safeguards and force even more complexity from platforms to try to quarantine fraud. There's an opportunity to shore up consistent (and boring) ways to reach an audience, but the likely outcome is more consolidation towards FB and Google solutions, the same problem happening for consumers.
posted by SoundInhabitant at 11:07 AM on February 22, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by SoundInhabitant at 11:07 AM on February 22, 2018 [1 favorite]
There's a strange dichotomy going on in the industry because of this sudden programmatic revolution - programmatic means fewer people are required but automated decision making leads to increased fraud and lower view rates because it just becomes an arms race between algorithms, so more humans need to pay attention.
I wrote the 2014 and 2016 handbooks on programmatic for the UK industry and somehow still can't get a job above senior trader.
posted by Molesome at 12:50 PM on February 22, 2018 [1 favorite]
I wrote the 2014 and 2016 handbooks on programmatic for the UK industry and somehow still can't get a job above senior trader.
posted by Molesome at 12:50 PM on February 22, 2018 [1 favorite]
Wow, Molesome, I am surprised to hear that. Since I have relocated to Sweden, I will give you a shout if I make it to the UK and we can nurse a beer together while commiserating over our crappy lot in work. :-)
posted by Bella Donna at 2:10 AM on February 23, 2018
posted by Bella Donna at 2:10 AM on February 23, 2018
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posted by ryanrs at 5:50 PM on February 21, 2018 [49 favorites]