Heaven or high water

February 17, 2022 9:50 AM

A bracing post from 2019 by Sarah Miller: The sea level in Miami has risen ten inches since 1900; in the 2000 years prior, it did not really change. The consensus among informed observers is that the sea will rise in Miami Beach somewhere between 13 and 34 inches by 2050. By 2100, it is extremely likely to be closer to six feet, which means, unless you own a yacht and a helicopter, sayonara. Sunset Harbour is expected to fare slightly worse, and to do so more quickly. Thus, I felt the Sunset Harbour area was a good place to start pretending to buy a home here. Amazingly, in the face of these incontrovertible facts about the climate the business of luxury real estate is chugging along just fine, and I wanted to see the cognitive dissonance up close.
posted by Bella Donna (33 comments total)

Relatedly, Miller’s follow-up(-ish) article from last summer: “All The Right Words On Climate Have Already Been Said”
posted by Going To Maine at 9:58 AM on February 17, 2022 [12 favorites]

Not sure if this is a coincidence or not, but NOAA just released their 2022 Sea Level Rise Technical Report.
posted by gwint at 10:06 AM on February 17, 2022 [9 favorites]

North end of the San Francisco Bay here. Next week I'll be hosting a forum that's focused on sustainable development and municipal finance, in which a developer will be pitching a new housing subdivision for my town. The town is on a tidal estuary, and the development is about 7 feet above sea level. With projected sea level rise and a 100 year storm, the first floors in the new development will have "about a foot of freeboard" (developer's words) come 2080.

The way I read that is that in 50 years when a storm comes through everyone's gonna want to move their car.

The development is what the combination of state and local planning restrictions signal that we want in that area. The transportation in and out is such that nobody is going to leave that development except by automobile.

I'm just another random citizen trying to put a little bit of energy into making my community better. The city needs housing, at all levels, and affordable housing isn't what you build right now it's what you built 30 years ago and we haven't been building much at all. And any time we get a developer proposing something responsible, multi-story multi-family with reduced parking, the NIMBYs go into high gear, whether it's complaints about spillover street parking or "the character of the town" or what-not, and there's no political will to create the zoning variances.

So it's not like I want to go after this developer or this project, but damn untangling the perverse incentives that cause us to sink a lot of embodied carbon into auto-centric developments that have maybe two generations of useful life is a hard thankless task that has no money in it. In a few decades, after I'm gone, the Army Corps will undoubtedly be tasked with dikes and levees and such to keep this land from flooding.

And, yes, in this same time frame there are other areas of town that are going to have similar problems, but....

We're saying "hey, let's spread the risk to people who were responsible and generate huge future unfunded liabilities" all over this country, and there's not a lot of profit in trying to create alternatives, and I have no idea where to start untangling this knot.
posted by straw at 10:25 AM on February 17, 2022 [29 favorites]

As I said when the NASA/NOAA report debuted a few days ago: This is not some far-flung event, anyone who's a millennial or younger will directly experience this.
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 11:03 AM on February 17, 2022 [5 favorites]

I lived in South Beach back in the mid-'90s. Even then, the streets would often flood with 8+ inches of water, even during regular rainstorms. I remember some gutters and sidewalk crossings that were deep and wet enough for tadpoles to live and mature in. We still have a friend who lives there, and she says it's much worse now, streets by her high-rise close because of flooding somewhat regularly. It's coming.
posted by SoberHighland at 11:37 AM on February 17, 2022 [1 favorite]

there's not a lot of profit in trying to create alternatives

Conversely, I consulted 100-year sea level projections before deciding where to purchase my home, and am doing the same for my other impending land purchases. There is literally no way you could convince me to buy property in Florida, for example.

I specifically chose to buy in certain areas and not others due to the way I expect sea level to affect local logistics; I don't want the highway my food comes down to be under water, and I definitely don't want my utilities to be under water either. Figuring this all out was a huge PITA (I'm probably still going to be wrong) and If I were Redfin or the like, I'd definitely be looking at adding sea level, flooding, drought, fire and other weather change predictions into my real estate models.
posted by aramaic at 12:01 PM on February 17, 2022 [17 favorites]

Dear Miami, you're the first to go
Disappearing under melting snow
Each and everyone turn your critical eye
On the burning sun and try not to cry

posted by demonic winged headgear at 12:15 PM on February 17, 2022 [2 favorites]

Here in Fresno we welcome our improved beach access . . . unless they convert the Golden Gate Bridge into the Golden Gate Dam
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 12:16 PM on February 17, 2022

we just bought a house near fort lauderdale, and some people think we're stupid and insane for making such a large investment in a piece of land that will likely be under water by the end of the century.




that's it. that's the post.
posted by logicpunk at 12:25 PM on February 17, 2022 [14 favorites]

It is absolutely incredible, the amount of money that continues to flow into real estate development and condo construction in Miami -- most of it premised on the greater fool theory, I have to imagine.

I lived in Miami for a couple years and used to hate-read the comments on a blog called The Next Miami. Check it out to get an idea of the fingers-in-the-ears I-can't-hear-what-you're-saying-about-sea-level-rise boosterism that is endemic there.

One thing that really drove home how much people want to to ignore climate change in south Florida: I was attending a civic event and struck up a conversation with a representative from the new Frost Museum, which was under construction at the time. We were talking about various exhibits that were planned and I asked if they'd have something focusing on sea level rise. This is a science museum built right on Biscayne Bay, so one could assume the topic would be highly relevant to their mission. This person looked at me like I had two heads and said there weren't any plans for such an exhibit. (To be fair, I moved away before the museum opened so I don't know if and how they decided to address climate change in their programs.)
posted by theory at 12:41 PM on February 17, 2022 [8 favorites]

Luxury housing is a disposable commodity. The ultra-rich only buy it to have a short-term plaything, and usually finance it with an interest-only loan. As long as the beach is viable for another five years, they don’t care about its long term future.
posted by simra at 1:12 PM on February 17, 2022 [5 favorites]

It's "funny" how developers in Miami claim sea level rise won't be a problem while they buy up all the land they can on the coastal ridge where it's 10+ feet above current sea level.

What nobody really talks about is how the flooding (above and beyond the existing flash flooding from rainstorms) is going to get bad for a lot of inland areas that are reclaimed swamp long before sea level rise is causing regular saltwater flooding because the drainage canals will quit doing their job without billions of dollars of investment nobody is willing to make.
posted by wierdo at 1:44 PM on February 17, 2022 [10 favorites]

I imagine you’ll all have heard it, but this week’s TAL episode is all about these kinds of stories, really well told: Apocalypse Creep.
posted by progosk at 2:12 PM on February 17, 2022 [10 favorites]

while they buy up all the land they can on the coastal ridge where it's 10+ feet above current sea level.

I wonder where they think all the developments they end up building there will get their drinking water from...
posted by Greg_Ace at 2:25 PM on February 17, 2022 [1 favorite]

who needs an aquafer?
posted by supermedusa at 2:30 PM on February 17, 2022

From All the right words on climate change have already been said. This is exactly how I feel.

I just want to be alive. I want all of us to just be alive. It is hard to accept the way things are, to know that the fight is outside the realm of argument and persuasion and appeals to how much it all hurts in every way. It is terrifying to know that the prize for many who care may be prison or worse. But all the right words about climate have already been deployed. It’s time for the right weapons.
posted by bluesky43 at 2:46 PM on February 17, 2022 [2 favorites]

Miami -- most of it premised on the greater fool theory, I have to imagine

This. The developers and first few buyers are going to sell and make their money well before it's all underwater. I guess the city figures it's hosed either way so it may as well collect some permit fees now.
posted by any portmanteau in a storm at 3:05 PM on February 17, 2022 [3 favorites]

For those not familiar with the meme:
hbomberguy's retort to Shapiro {40sec YT} re: Florida real estate.
posted by bartleby at 3:43 PM on February 17, 2022 [10 favorites]

I wonder where they think all the developments they end up building there will get their drinking water from...

The same place they are now, at least for the next hundred years or so. For the moment the saltwater intrusion situation is getting better, not worse, thanks to better water management and restoration of the Everglades. Once South Florida is reduced to a chain of islands things will get interesting on that front, but that's long past anything developers care about.
posted by wierdo at 3:49 PM on February 17, 2022 [1 favorite]

who needs an aquafer?

What's an aqua fer?
posted by Greg_Ace at 4:24 PM on February 17, 2022 [8 favorites]

I guess the city figures it's hosed either way so it may as well collect some permit fees now.

Maybe, but I think it's more cynical than that: I wouldn't put it past certain cities to be actively encouraging and courting development, on the theory that if enough people move in, they'll be "too big to fail flood" and the Feds will have to step in and do something.

I think they just figure that, when push comes to shove, a bunch of government eggheads will step in and spend a bunch of someone-else's money because certainly we're not going to let a city full of brand-new luxury condos—and all those voters—just fall into the sea. Right? ... right?
posted by Kadin2048 at 4:37 PM on February 17, 2022 [10 favorites]

What nobody really talks about is how the flooding (above and beyond the existing flash flooding from rainstorms) is going to get bad for a lot of inland areas that are reclaimed swamp long before sea level rise is causing regular saltwater flooding because the drainage canals will quit doing their job without billions of dollars of investment nobody is willing to make.

That's the thing. You can build seawalls, but in coastal-ish the water table within sea walls continues to rise anyway, because groundwater often sits on a table of salt water and as sea levels rise, so does the water table. Plus seawalls prevent inland water discharging into the ocean. So underground utilities, even those not on the map of places that will be underwater, with fill with groundwater and old cables will cease to work. Sewage systems that rely on gravity will become non-functional. Septic tanks and cesspools will no longer function properly either, and will more easily contaminate groundwater used for drinking. Contaminated soils will become inundated, and we have a bunch of EPA sites in the Bay Area from the tech industry. None of these issues will be solved by building houses on stilts.
posted by oneirodynia at 4:42 PM on February 17, 2022 [8 favorites]

All right. I'll tell you what I'll do. I'll show you my idea. I give you the Springfield hovercraft!
posted by NoThisIsPatrick at 5:16 PM on February 17, 2022

I consulted 100-year sea level projections before deciding where to purchase my home, and am doing the same for my other impending land purchases.

You should probably also model how your land & property purchases are going to withstand the stampede of wealthy people who are going to evacuate flooding coastal areas and are going to have the clout and cash to take whatever they want in safer areas.
posted by srboisvert at 9:20 PM on February 17, 2022 [5 favorites]

You should probably also model how your land & property purchases are going to withstand the stampede

Well, since I am one of those wealthy people, I have indeed already considered that, but thank you for your concern. If you care to purchase a life raft for any of your extended family, let me know, I'm sure we can come to a suitable agreement at below-market rates, because I'm just that much of a hero. Today. While supplies last.

(The stampede is already happening, and has been happening for years. 1/3rd of my net worth is presently invested in property I think will be more resilient than most, and even at that I'm a slow horse buying from the fast-movers. Because, well, I wasn't wealthy enough until just recently. Oops. Feel free to make fun, the "smart money" has been on top of this for a while now and you're kidding yourselves if you think their public face matches their private financial maneuvers. I've been in bidding wars against them, I know what they can pay. Like, seriously, the planet is fucked and the powerful have been aware of that for a long-ass time; anyone just figuring it out now is doomed.)
posted by aramaic at 10:23 PM on February 17, 2022 [13 favorites]

It is going to switch so fast from Florida wealth funding politicians who prevent action against climate change to Florida wealth funding politicians who force everyone else to bail them out from climate change.
posted by chimpsonfilm at 10:25 PM on February 17, 2022 [10 favorites]

She said the main thing is just that Miami was being very forward thinking. She mentioned Amsterdam, and how they were making it work, and how the Dutch were just the poster child for how this worked, and that they were sorting out a way to make this work. “I think the takeaway is just that Miami is doing something about it.”

There are several problems with comparing Miami to the Netherlands. One of these is that Amsterdam has spent billions of dollars on climate change and Miami has spent millions. The Dutch strategy is holistic, looking at how this thing will affect that thing, etc., whereas in Miami they have just installed some pumps and raised roads and buildings, which kind of neglects to consider that a place to live is really only useful insofar as nearby goods and services, and roads, are not underwater.

The Dutch have arguably the best water engineers in the world. But even then, I can sum up the Dutch strategy: Hold out as long as you can and also make plans for how to move the entire population eastwards to Germany.
posted by vacapinta at 3:20 AM on February 18, 2022 [12 favorites]

Nothing can stop the disaster in Miami at this point except maybe large scale geoengineering. There's simply too much melt already baked in. We can't turn ourselves into a Dutch polder because sand on top of old coral reefs just let the water in from below at a rate no reasonable amount of pumping can handle.

It's got a good while left, though, since the rate of increase is lower than most other places in the world and there's a near 100% chance storm surge defenses will get built. It'll be futile in the end, but when have humans ever not fallen victim to the sunk cost fallacy?
posted by wierdo at 4:13 AM on February 18, 2022 [4 favorites]

Hey this is a good one for doubles.

I posted this about my parents and their condo back in 2019: "My parents are lifetime experts in ignoring what they don't want to know, but they have a condo on the beach in Ft. Lauderdale. We had a discussion where I was talking about a NYT article I'd read on the limestone and flooding, and they poo-poo'd it immensely. A few minutes later they were complaining about how their lower-level parking lots flood even when it's not raining. But, you see, their condo is above the parking lot and so no big deal!"

Here's what happened in their condo in October!

Abusing the edit window: "Hook said they first realized there was a problem when air conditioners stopped working. Water was found to have spread under the building, and was gushing in the mechanical area. Electrical conduits under the building were rotted away. An engineer warned the building won't pass its mandatory 50-year reinspection until fixes are made."
posted by warriorqueen at 5:10 AM on February 18, 2022 [5 favorites]

Fresh water may not be an issue with the population and political power shift to western and southern states. A pipeline from the Great Lakes to the drought ridden west is off the table due to strict regulations, for now. Pressure is mounting so what is stopping a small concession turning into a siphoning to all of the wealthy communities that need that water to survive a bit longer?
posted by waving at 6:00 AM on February 18, 2022

it's fine to posit the wealthy flooding your climate haven, but seriously? there are far more poors who will be on a climate-driven refugee march. I've read that the Arab Spring and subsequent civil war in Syria were exacerbated (if not fueled) by climate crisis drought. this will happen more and more, in more places. when I think about selling my ridiculously overpriced house and getting the f0ck out of the Bay Area (and Cali-FIRE-nia in general) I definitely consider "hordes of angry, hungry, homeless, desperate people from a lot of the places" as one of the factors...it's going to be grim.
posted by supermedusa at 11:27 AM on February 18, 2022 [2 favorites]

I've been thinking off and on for a while about the scale of real estate wealth collapse that will come with re-valuation of land that can't be built on or used -- thirty years seems like a long while but that's the term of a home mortgage. Real estate is a notoriously "incomplete market" -- there's no futures market in real estate, transactions in land/buildings is "lumpy" and illiquid (see e.g. Fabozzi, Shiller and Tunaru 2020 ) & as a result the dramatically lower future value of coastal real estate is not brought forward into current prices (see e.g. Furst and Warren-Myers 2021 or Murfin and Spiegel 2020)

You can sort of imagine it -- what would you pay today for the right to own property on the Outer Banks, if that began in 2050? 2080? Close to zero, right? Ownership of land permanently under the tide line reverts to the state; the title is lost*. So trillions of dollars in coastal property currently held as assets and used by banks as part of their collateral against loans, will be at a predictable future moment, worthless. Same with a lot of currently rain-fed agricultural land in the lower midwest. One would like a way to gracefully transition this from current balance sheets to future ones, and not have a massive 2008 (or 1929) style re-valuation shock.

Anyway, I don't have a solution here, but it's weird to look at this big of an economic risk, know that it's coming, and know there's nothing to stop it. This is somewhat similar to the "keep the oil in the ground causes a huge revaluation of oil company worth" problem. What I'd really love to see happen is for holders of oil/gas/coal company stocks to have to swap their stock for future land ownership rights around the world in places less than 2 meters above sea level, those rights to kick in starting in 2060.

/* this is a simplification, and depends on the state. In general this is true for "navigable waterways" tho. And the government could lease the property back to you.
posted by PandaMomentum at 2:52 PM on February 18, 2022 [4 favorites]

transactions in land/buildings is "lumpy" and illiquid

Like a repugnant gravy made from the noisome sludge of the sea floor, slowly but relentlessly spreading and blanketing all in its path...
posted by Greg_Ace at 3:25 PM on February 18, 2022 [2 favorites]