It can slosh around, it can stretch, and it can break into two pieces.
December 22, 2022 9:02 AM   Subscribe

What on Earth is a polar vortex? So there has been quite a lively and vigorous debate in the research community of the idea that the jet stream might be torquing more in the winter, and what we call “weather weirding” might be producing more intense winter extremes. Previously on Mefi on the vortex in 2022.

Also:
Snow itself is a difficult thing to measure. And sometimes there have been changes in how we measure snow that are tossed into the mix. Many decades ago, official snow measurements were typically done just once a day. Today, snowfall is generally measured on what we call a snowboard every six hours. This is how the National Weather Service officially measures snow. Every six hours, you check the depth of the snow, then you clear the snowboard off, and then you add the six-hour totals to give you a 24-hour total. Now if you measure snow every hour, like an enthusiastic volunteer observer might do, you’re going to get a higher daily snow total because it doesn’t have time to compact and do the things that happen to snow as it sits there a while. This ends up giving you daily totals that are unrealistically high, and typically such reports need to be filtered out during official reviews of extreme events.
posted by spamandkimchi (52 comments total) 15 users marked this as a favorite
 
-30C here this morning; 5 degrees colder than the previous record and 23 degrees below the average low for this date. Windchills in the high -40s. Weather weirding indeed.
posted by Mitheral at 10:25 AM on December 22, 2022 [2 favorites]


I'm flying from sunny LA to Oklahoma today where it's currently 4 degrees and snowing. I just hope my flight isn't delayed. At least it's to Tulsa where American Airlines does much of its maintenance so less likely to get outright cancelled but I'm not looking forward to it.
posted by downtohisturtles at 11:25 AM on December 22, 2022


-30C here this morning;

Mitheral, I notice you're in Kamloops.

coldest weather I've ever endured was at Sun Peaks (then Tod Mountain), where I was working in 1980-81, loading people on chairlifts. That was -30. That was cold. But it was also alpine. I wonder what it's like up there today.

I got frostbite on my cheeks that day (my masked face wasn't completely masked but it was too numbed for me to realize). I also went out and bought new boots immediately afterword.
posted by philip-random at 11:28 AM on December 22, 2022


I experienced -40°F in Winnepeg in mid-December of about 1982. I was on a crew shooting a documentary. Thankfully, before the trip, my older brother insisted on taking me to REI and Eddie Bauer to get appropriate clothing. He said I could get in real physical trouble if I was unprepared. Once I got to Winnipeg, I found out just how correct he had been. I recall we had a heck of a time dealing with camera batteries, though.
posted by bz at 11:45 AM on December 22, 2022 [5 favorites]


A friend in Colorado just posted this weather report:
from our local Longmont, Colorado paper:
The high temperature (Wed) was 51 degrees, around 1 p.m.
At 3:55 p.m., according to records at Vance Brand Municipal Airport, it was a seasonal 42 degrees.
Around 4 p.m., the arctic front hit.
At 4:15 p.m., the temperature at the airport was 28.
At 4:35 p.m,, the temperature at the airport was 10.
By 6:35 p.m., the temperature at the airport was zero, with heavy snow.
This morning's low, at the airport, was 16 below. it was -22F at Denver airport this morning.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 11:57 AM on December 22, 2022 [13 favorites]


Yep, pretty damn cold. I had blankets over the windows and I guess that caused condensation and then frost on the inside, which was startling to find. It did stay warmer though. But the sun is shining and it's a balmy -2 today. I look forward to leaving the house tomorrow if they get the roads cleared but otherwise it's all fuzzy PJs all the time here.

My friends in TX are mostly ok but worried about their shitty unfixed power grid.
posted by emjaybee at 12:14 PM on December 22, 2022 [2 favorites]


I'm in Dallas and we're in mid-drop. It was pushing 60F this time yesterday and my phone tells me it's 19F right now with roaring winds. Spouse told me we had brief snow earlier but it didn't stick. My autoimmune/joint stuff leaves me super fatigued during pressure changes so today is "read Metafilter and sleep" day for me.

The only reason I'm not super scared of the power going out is that we live between the transformer and a DPD substation. We kept power through the last grid failure when almost nobody else did, including the folks on the other side of the street, for which I am still grateful.
posted by gentlyepigrams at 12:24 PM on December 22, 2022 [3 favorites]


The cold weather is due to hit New York in a couple days - right when I was going to be attending something outdoors on Christmas Eve.

I'm heading on an emergency shopping run after work today in search of long johns, I think.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 12:44 PM on December 22, 2022


The three day weather data for Casper Wyoming really is something. Temperatures below -40 and wind chills down to -65.
posted by inflatablekiwi at 12:47 PM on December 22, 2022


omg those numbers are insane brrr! I will stop complaining about our Bay Area cold snap with nighttime lows in the upper 30s...
posted by supermedusa at 1:01 PM on December 22, 2022 [2 favorites]


North Dakota / Minnesota border here: It isn't the coldest we get in the winter -- we usually get close to -40F a couple days most winters -- but we're expecting to be subzero until Tuesday, with a second blizzard tonight through tomorrow. Over a week of this is beginning to get old though, knowing more is coming in January/February. Getting a bunch of snow last week when it was in the 30s, which turned everything to slush, then dropped below zero and hasn't gotten above freezing since, has glazed all the roads with what seems like four inches of solid ice.

One unexpected thing: I bought a couple wireless security cameras for a property I'm not at during the week. Apparently nobody tells you that rechargeable outdoor cameras aren't "outdoor" if it drops below freezing due to battery chemistry not working well. I've learned my lesson to buy mains-powered security cameras in the future.
posted by AzraelBrown at 1:10 PM on December 22, 2022 [5 favorites]


It's gonna hit the mid 20s here in NE Florida which obviously isn't nearly as cold as many of you are facing but there's also zero infrastructure in place to handle temps like that down here. Thank God school is already out for the year. Good luck everyone, this is gonna be an absolute disaster for some of us.
posted by saladin at 1:16 PM on December 22, 2022 [4 favorites]


Dallas here: Just went outside to cover my spigots in 17 degree F weather wearing my robe with Covid/fever. Super fun! My lights have already flickered off once.
posted by Unicorn on the cob at 1:24 PM on December 22, 2022 [3 favorites]


I experienced -40°F in Winnepeg

Curiously, -40° is one temperature that you don't have to put C or F after!
posted by hippybear at 2:20 PM on December 22, 2022 [16 favorites]


5 - 10 F near Seattle overnight last night, and we had somewhere between 6-12" of snow on Monday-Tuesday. Snow isn't rare around here but these low temps are, and I'm just glad we didn't get freezing rain with it because it's already a skating rink out there. It's like 35-40 F in my room and all I can really do is get under the blankets and curl up with the cat.

Possible freezing rain tonight and tomorrow, then hopefully warmer with rain.

I'm usually into cold temps and I even have appropriate boots and clothes and stuff and I'm so over it already. It's way too cold.

I can't even imagine -40 F/C, no thank you. My bones hurt just thinking about it.
posted by loquacious at 2:26 PM on December 22, 2022 [2 favorites]


The flip side of this is that Atlantic Canada is getting something like a post-tropical storm (rain and wind) tomorrow and Saturday :(
posted by eviemath at 2:27 PM on December 22, 2022 [1 favorite]


As soon as the front arrived here in Chicago and the ground was covered in snow my wife and I went for a walk on a the lakefront. I call going out during winter NWS weather alerts "Canadian Passport Renewal".
posted by srboisvert at 2:46 PM on December 22, 2022 [3 favorites]


Did this happen to anyone else? After midnight last night, before the storm and ultra-cold arrived around 9 AM this morning, the temperature went up about 5 degrees compared to yesterday, and the wind stopped. It was (relatively) nice out, and I took my fluffy cat for a long walk around the neighborhood. I think that's the first time the temperature's been above freezing this week. I wonder if there could be any meteorological science behind it.
posted by Harvey Kilobit at 2:59 PM on December 22, 2022


I wonder if there could be any meteorological science behind it.

I'm fairly certain that was done by someone sacrificing two chickens and performing a ritual to Ọya, but it could also be something else.
posted by hippybear at 3:11 PM on December 22, 2022 [5 favorites]


The flip side of this is that Atlantic Canada is getting something like a post-tropical storm (rain and wind)

same thing is forecast for the west coast (Vancouver area), except first we're going to get twenty four hours of snow (starting tonight sometime). It will be a mess ...

Current temperature here is -8 (celsius; aka 18 F). For reference, the average high around here is about +5 celsius, 42 F
posted by philip-random at 3:21 PM on December 22, 2022


Environment Canada: Seven day forecast
posted by kaibutsu at 4:03 PM on December 22, 2022


It's 5° F here right now. The little portable space heater I've been using died on me last week and my ancient wall heater is having trouble picking up the slack. I've closed up the second bedroom and put a blanket over the doorway to the kitchen. The living room and my bedroom are holding at about 60° for now.

I really need to walk into town for groceries but it looks like that's going to have to wait until at least Tuesday.
posted by Tenuki at 4:39 PM on December 22, 2022 [1 favorite]


.....I just spent $400 in cold weather gear. Uf they cancel the thing I am doing Saturday I will be PISSED..
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 4:58 PM on December 22, 2022 [2 favorites]


Boy howdy was this an unfortunate time to be trying to housebreak a tiny nine week old puppy, that's all I can say; it's -11F but "feels like -34F" with the wind-chill, and we've been taking turns stumbling outside with a cranky baby to try and minimize accidents. On the upside, kigurumi do a pretty good job of keeping me warm, so I've been dressed as a skeleton for three days and will be shortly be changing into a giant fuzzy raven costume.
posted by sciatrix at 5:04 PM on December 22, 2022 [6 favorites]


Not sure where this storm is officially an arctic bomb cyclone vs just a polar vortex. Some info about that here. The high winds are gonna be very dangerous along with the crummy cold. We’re still waiting in Ohio. Thankfully we’re not traveling and we have a natural gas generator. Lots of big trees and branches will pulling down power lines. Stay safe.
posted by waving at 5:33 PM on December 22, 2022


50 right now, per my outdoor thermometer. We brought in our outside dog since the temps are going to start dropping around midnight. I'm in SE TN, halfway between Knoxville and Chattanooga.

I've lived in TN since 1995, and I'm not sure if it's the ADHD making me forget, or it really hasn't been forecast to be THIS cold before. We had 15 degree temps during one or more of the polar vortexes, but I've never recalled it being single digits to negative in TN since '95. There is a band of rain coming our way and right behind it is the snow. Going to be gross. Good thing I've already gone to the store and I have access to a 4wd vehicle. Also, school is over for the winter break, so that will be good. No worries about buses plunging off icy twisty hilly roads.
posted by tlwright at 6:30 PM on December 22, 2022 [1 favorite]


The speed with which temperatures have dropped is astonishing. 47 degree (F) drop in less than an hour.
posted by spamandkimchi at 6:54 PM on December 22, 2022 [2 favorites]


Hear at hood canal - olympic penninsula wa state, mot super cold but that wind is bitter.

we have been hit hard with snow most of the month but this is the first time my weather app listed three differerent numbers for precipiation amounts: 1-2 snow, 0.2 -0.4 inches ice!, 3/4 to 1 inch rain. Tomorrow is going to be a mess.
posted by anecdotal_grand_theory at 7:24 PM on December 22, 2022


Uh, *here * at Hood Canal. doh!
posted by anecdotal_grand_theory at 7:43 PM on December 22, 2022


Hear here!
posted by hippybear at 7:44 PM on December 22, 2022 [3 favorites]


I've lived in TN since 1995, and I'm not sure if it's the ADHD making me forget, or it really hasn't been forecast to be THIS cold before…

The distant past by this point, but I recall during the infamous winter of '77 it repeatedly getting to 5 and ten below 0° in Columbia, south of Nashville. That was a rough winter everywhere though; that year it snowed in Miami.

Today in Seattle it was 18° when I rode in to work. Let me tell you, that bike ride was BRACING. I was very pleased the 5 mile commute was split in half by a nice warm train ride.
posted by los pantalones del muerte at 8:30 PM on December 22, 2022


It’s 39 °F in my kitchen right now, with no appliances operating, but with a tiny heater under the table.
posted by jamjam at 9:32 PM on December 22, 2022


-4F now, feels like -29 with 20 mph winds, suburbs north of Chicago. My dogs normally love cold and snow but bitter cold like this is too much for their little feet (and I’ve never had any luck with dog shoes). My boss, who is himself in California, was not willing to tell us to close the office tomorrow. But we’re not going in if it’s dangerous, and there’s going to be a lot of ice from the sudden temperature drop (it was nearly 30F earlier today), so I’d say that’s dangerous.
posted by Glinn at 9:46 PM on December 22, 2022


Live storms media on YouTube

I follow these on YouTube to know where the climate drama is happening, there are several of these B-roll weather crews that sell video to the major stations. like a small fleet of Jim cantores, you don't want to be where they are
posted by eustatic at 3:38 AM on December 23, 2022


Welp - my knee can confirm that we are indeed going to be getting one HELL of a temperature drop today here in New York.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 3:47 AM on December 23, 2022 [3 favorites]


tlwright, I've lived around Knoxville for about 20 years. I remember seeing -9 on my thermometer about 12(?) Years ago. I was living in a holler hard up on GSMNP at the time, and the mountains are notorious for making bizarre little microclimates, so.

But yeah, it was 10* on my way to work this morning... and falling.
posted by workerant at 5:01 AM on December 23, 2022


Madison checking in this morning with -10F, windchill -34. I don't think this is the most extreme weather we've experienced while living here, but it's probably in the top 10.
posted by eirias at 5:33 AM on December 23, 2022 [1 favorite]


Welp - my knee can confirm that we are indeed going to be getting one HELL of a temperature drop today here in New York.

So sorry, Empress. My ankle is complaining about everything that happened yesterday and overnight.

Dallas checking in this morning to say the Texas power grid is still working here even in 11F, which may not sound cold to you midwesterners but it is for us. Texas still has its sense of humor, such as it is, because the part of it that's on Facebook is posting that meme about getting on our Tauntauns to go to Whataburger/H-E-B.
posted by gentlyepigrams at 6:21 AM on December 23, 2022 [3 favorites]


Since 2015, I haven't once used the heating in my St. Paul, MN apartment. Thick walls and passive heat from adjacent units are enough to keep me comfortable. Today I think I managed a record low of 63F in my apartment with -10F air temp outside.

(My heating bill is pro-rated by square footage so I'm not ripping off my neighbors. If anything I'm saving them a few cents.)
posted by paper chromatographologist at 6:32 AM on December 23, 2022


Meanwhile, here in the Boston area it’s 54F, which is definitely too warm for December 23. Forecast shows the temps starting to plummet around 6pm, with a high tomorrow of around 22F. But that’s not really that cold, which makes me wonder if the forecast is wrong, or if it’s just that the polar vortex is staying further south? Cause it’s deeply weird that Boston is 40 degrees warmer than Austin.
posted by DiscourseMarker at 7:44 AM on December 23, 2022


In Seattle this morning, everything is covered in 1/2 inch of ice.

My dog Splendid tried walking on the sidewalk, started slipping, and got very confused and scared. She no longer understood the world. She peed five feet from the door then refused to take another step.
posted by Laura Palmer's Cold Dead Kiss at 7:51 AM on December 23, 2022 [3 favorites]


I'm really glad the power grid is holding together; I've been worried about Texas!

My dishwasher has stopped working because the water input is frozen. I had not previously been aware that was something that could happen! I'm waiting on my roommate to wake up so I can bug her to help me find her space heater so I can fix it.
posted by sciatrix at 8:28 AM on December 23, 2022 [1 favorite]


She peed five feet from the door then refused to take another step.

To be fair, I've felt like doing the exact same thing many times over the past 4-5 years.
posted by hippybear at 8:39 AM on December 23, 2022 [2 favorites]


In Seattle this morning, everything is covered in 1/2 inch of ice.

Yeah, I saw that all Metro bus service is canceled due to ice, which almost never happens.

Locally on the peninsula we're doing ok as far as freezing rain is concerned, but there's definitely plenty of ice from packed snow on the roads.

Did this happen to anyone else? After midnight last night, before the storm and ultra-cold arrived around 9 AM this morning, the temperature went up about 5 degrees compared to yesterday, and the wind stopped.


Locally between last night and this morning it somehow feels warmer and more pleasant, but it's still below freezing and my thermometer is saying it is barely 5 F warmer. I'm not sure if I just adapted to the cold or what but it's definitely feeling more tolerable.
posted by loquacious at 11:03 AM on December 23, 2022


A couple (dear friends) in Colorado had a bit of a roller-coaster 24 hours yesterday. They're fine, but their holiday plans have, in the words of one of them, "gone Flipperdoodle"...

* They were SUPPOSED to be picking up her mom at the Denver airport yesterday, and from there the three of them were going to be going to spend the holiday in at a rented condo near a ski resort, complete with a couple of dinner reservations and a sleigh ride.

* But then yesterday mom's flight was cancelled, and any future flights were as well, so they decided to give up on that.

* And at the same time, some of their own friends got stuck trying to make it to the Denver airport for a flight OUT of Colorado (a 2 hour drive was taking them 8 hours), so they missed their own flight and couldn't get another one, so they gave up. My friends took them in for the night so they wouldn't have to try to navigate back right away, and they all bonded by watching Planes, Trains and Automobiles last night.

My friends were able to get refunds on everything, they have a new furnace that's working great, and the guy half of the couple intimated that he appreciated being able to "break out the adult hot beverages" earlier than he thought.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 11:12 AM on December 23, 2022


It got into the teens (F) overnight in Austin TX. No power issues but my outside faucets and hose bibs did freeze. I didn't expect that in one night with hose bib covers.
posted by jclarkin at 12:30 PM on December 23, 2022 [1 favorite]


I went ice skating around my Portland neighborhood today. That's new.
posted by dsword at 3:15 PM on December 23, 2022


Here in Western NY, our blizzard started rolling in during the AM and promptly took out the power (which just returned after 7 hours). It was 13F last I looked, which even with the heat running is too much for the radiators in the unmodernized half of my house; I’m hanging out in the addition, which has such exciting conveniences as insulation.
posted by thomas j wise at 3:33 PM on December 23, 2022


Dallas still has power this evening (Friday) but both the natural gas and electric utility have reached out to consumers to ask us to conserve. It's warmed up (to 23F) and with the cloud cover it looks like we'll stay above the teens overnight.
posted by gentlyepigrams at 4:35 PM on December 23, 2022


Montreal here…apparently we were on the side that’s is pulling up hot air, so we got ~10-15cm of snow, and then it got too hot and that morphed into pouring rain (urgh!) and back to a bit of snow tonight since it’s cold now. The city is racing to clear the grates so that water goes into the storm drain system instead of freezing on the street/sidewalks. Annoying but nothing dramatic this is somewhat standard weather here, but winds and heavy wet snow caused a ton of smallish power outbreaks, hydro hopes to restore most of it for Christmas night, but a bunch of people will ‘enjoy’ a very traditional Christmas with candles only. My parents are out of power, but its too far away/crappy to drive to my place, we’ll see tomorrow.

I count myself lucky the major annoyance of the day was running the snow blower in pouring rain (that’s a 1st!) and shoveling a bunch of wet snow.
posted by WaterAndPixels at 6:46 PM on December 23, 2022




Staying Warm Data with Nora Bateson
posted by jeffburdges at 5:23 PM on December 25, 2022


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