Ukraine war heading into second summer
May 30, 2023 2:57 AM Subscribe
The Ukraine war is heading into the summer, most commentators are waiting for the Ukrainian counteroffensive to kick off in earnest. In recent days Russia has been striking Ukraine with drones and missiles harder than in a very long while, and today Moscow was struck by Ukrainian long-range drones. Recent pledges of F-16 training (but no firm deliveries of airframes yet) and actual deliveries of Storm Shadow cruise missiles have somewhat overshadowed the work Ukraine has put in in building brigades with Western equipment.
Russian forces did eventually capture all of urban Bakhmut after 9 months of gruelling battle, a tactical victory but indications is that it is probably a strategic loss. Russian war criminal and milblogger Igor Girkin agrees, calling it a Pyrrhic victory. The news were somewhat overshadowed by an armed incursion into Russian territory, performed by Russians fighting for Ukraine in this war.
Documented Russian tank losses just passed 2,000 according to Oryx, more than the combined German, French and British tank fleets. This has once again raised the question of whether tanks are obsolete, but professor of strategic studies and St. Andrews, Phillips O'Brian, argues that they are not.
Ukrainian commentary on the war is quite limited these days, and they have been enforcing censorship on reports on air defence activity to not give the Russians information on effectiveness of their attacks or placement of Ukrainian equipment. There is some official information coming out though, one example is this longer interview with Ukraine’s head of military intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov.
The war is still a terrible strain on the Ukrainian economy and civil society, and Support Ukraine Now has a number of ways for you to help.
As always, if you would like to discuss nuclear escalation, this is not the thread for that, and you are free to make your own FPP.
Russian forces did eventually capture all of urban Bakhmut after 9 months of gruelling battle, a tactical victory but indications is that it is probably a strategic loss. Russian war criminal and milblogger Igor Girkin agrees, calling it a Pyrrhic victory. The news were somewhat overshadowed by an armed incursion into Russian territory, performed by Russians fighting for Ukraine in this war.
Documented Russian tank losses just passed 2,000 according to Oryx, more than the combined German, French and British tank fleets. This has once again raised the question of whether tanks are obsolete, but professor of strategic studies and St. Andrews, Phillips O'Brian, argues that they are not.
Ukrainian commentary on the war is quite limited these days, and they have been enforcing censorship on reports on air defence activity to not give the Russians information on effectiveness of their attacks or placement of Ukrainian equipment. There is some official information coming out though, one example is this longer interview with Ukraine’s head of military intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov.
The war is still a terrible strain on the Ukrainian economy and civil society, and Support Ukraine Now has a number of ways for you to help.
As always, if you would like to discuss nuclear escalation, this is not the thread for that, and you are free to make your own FPP.
I liked Biden's response about the drone attack on Moscow: “It’s not unexpected,” he told reporters. “That’s why we got to continue to give Ukraine all that it needs.”
posted by Dip Flash at 6:03 AM on May 30, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by Dip Flash at 6:03 AM on May 30, 2023 [4 favorites]
Full quote for context :
Q Russia is doubling down —
THE PRESIDENT: Russia is doubling down —
Q — on attacks on Kyiv.
THE PRESIDENT: Yes.
Q Do you have any reaction?
THE PRESIDENT: It’s not unexpected. And that’s — it’s just pure — it’s not unexpected. That’s why we got to continue to give Ukraine all that it needs.
posted by BWA at 6:10 AM on May 30, 2023 [10 favorites]
Q Russia is doubling down —
THE PRESIDENT: Russia is doubling down —
Q — on attacks on Kyiv.
THE PRESIDENT: Yes.
Q Do you have any reaction?
THE PRESIDENT: It’s not unexpected. And that’s — it’s just pure — it’s not unexpected. That’s why we got to continue to give Ukraine all that it needs.
posted by BWA at 6:10 AM on May 30, 2023 [10 favorites]
The F-16's are going to do diddly squat other than get pilots killed unless Unkraine can suppress/destroy Russian air defenses.
posted by nestor_makhno at 6:18 AM on May 30, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by nestor_makhno at 6:18 AM on May 30, 2023 [1 favorite]
That Iranian-made drones seem to be flowing to Russia unimpeded is so frustrating.
posted by Thorzdad at 6:20 AM on May 30, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by Thorzdad at 6:20 AM on May 30, 2023 [3 favorites]
The F-16's are going to do diddly squat other than get pilots killed unless Unkraine can suppress/destroy Russian air defenses.
The most likely use of them will be as air defense. Ukraine is burning through anti-air missiles against Russian missiles and drones, which "could clear the way for Russian pilots in fighter jets to return to Ukraine, with a greatly reduced threat of being shot down."
posted by Etrigan at 6:25 AM on May 30, 2023 [6 favorites]
The most likely use of them will be as air defense. Ukraine is burning through anti-air missiles against Russian missiles and drones, which "could clear the way for Russian pilots in fighter jets to return to Ukraine, with a greatly reduced threat of being shot down."
posted by Etrigan at 6:25 AM on May 30, 2023 [6 favorites]
I wonder if Taliban incursions into Iran will have any impact on that at all?
posted by Harald74 at 6:25 AM on May 30, 2023
posted by Harald74 at 6:25 AM on May 30, 2023
An overview of the drone attack on Moscow, from a to-me unknown YouTuber.
posted by Harald74 at 6:30 AM on May 30, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by Harald74 at 6:30 AM on May 30, 2023 [1 favorite]
It lines up with other pictures in this thread from Ukraine Weapons Tracker.
posted by Harald74 at 6:31 AM on May 30, 2023
posted by Harald74 at 6:31 AM on May 30, 2023
The F-16's are going to do diddly squat other than get pilots killed unless Unkraine can suppress/destroy Russian air defenses.
They are better (and more numerous, and better supported) than what the Ukrainians are currently flying, so it will be a net improvement.
posted by Dip Flash at 6:33 AM on May 30, 2023 [2 favorites]
They are better (and more numerous, and better supported) than what the Ukrainians are currently flying, so it will be a net improvement.
posted by Dip Flash at 6:33 AM on May 30, 2023 [2 favorites]
It seems to me like proponents of the F-16 deal think that they will provide quite a lot in intercepting cruise missiles over Kyiv and western Ukraine, even if Russian air defences are active on the front. I'm not competent to say one way or the other.
posted by Harald74 at 6:38 AM on May 30, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by Harald74 at 6:38 AM on May 30, 2023 [1 favorite]
The F-16s will be helpful both as air defense and allowing deeper strikes into Russian-held territory, but they're going to get attrited just as rapidly as all the other weapons in this war. This is what attrition looks like.
posted by Galvanic at 6:55 AM on May 30, 2023
posted by Galvanic at 6:55 AM on May 30, 2023
What is the word on the street right now in Moscow? The government claims the war is going well and then the capital is very loudly and publicly attacked.
posted by Slackermagee at 7:05 AM on May 30, 2023
posted by Slackermagee at 7:05 AM on May 30, 2023
The F-16's are going to do diddly squat other than get pilots killed unless Ukraine can suppress/destroy Russian air defenses.
Okay, I'll go tell them.
The Ukraine military knows what it's doing and knows more about it's needs than any of us. If they say they want F-16 you can trust that they will use them effectively and efficiently.
Then we'll probably see some ingenious stuff the Ukraine air force rigged up to use those jets in ways none of us can imagine. Like they have been doing for the entire war.
You can apply this same approach to any other piece of hardware provided to Ukraine that you don't understand.
posted by VTX at 7:19 AM on May 30, 2023 [16 favorites]
Okay, I'll go tell them.
The Ukraine military knows what it's doing and knows more about it's needs than any of us. If they say they want F-16 you can trust that they will use them effectively and efficiently.
Then we'll probably see some ingenious stuff the Ukraine air force rigged up to use those jets in ways none of us can imagine. Like they have been doing for the entire war.
You can apply this same approach to any other piece of hardware provided to Ukraine that you don't understand.
posted by VTX at 7:19 AM on May 30, 2023 [16 favorites]
I find it highly unbelievable that Ukraine would spend any effort on sending a barrage of small drones to targets in Moscow with a low probability of success that has zero chance of helping their war aims.
posted by being_quiet at 8:02 AM on May 30, 2023 [6 favorites]
posted by being_quiet at 8:02 AM on May 30, 2023 [6 favorites]
I find it highly unbelievable that Ukraine would spend any effort on sending a barrage of small drones to targets in Moscow with a low probability of success that has zero chance of helping their war aims.
This quote from the mayor of Kyiv suggests some of the pressure the Ukrainian government is under to show a direct response beyond simply defending against the missiles and drones:
Kyiv’s mayor, Vitali Klitschko, appeared on national television shortly after residents of the capital were jolted from bed by a third wave of attacks in 24 hours. He posed a question that captured the anger of many in the city. “If the Russians can make Kyiv a nightmare, why do the people of Moscow rest?”
posted by Dip Flash at 8:08 AM on May 30, 2023 [6 favorites]
This quote from the mayor of Kyiv suggests some of the pressure the Ukrainian government is under to show a direct response beyond simply defending against the missiles and drones:
Kyiv’s mayor, Vitali Klitschko, appeared on national television shortly after residents of the capital were jolted from bed by a third wave of attacks in 24 hours. He posed a question that captured the anger of many in the city. “If the Russians can make Kyiv a nightmare, why do the people of Moscow rest?”
posted by Dip Flash at 8:08 AM on May 30, 2023 [6 favorites]
Ukrainian anthropologist Evgeny Osievsky died May 22, 2023, fighting the Russian invasion, publishing until the last week before he was killed.
See this moving Twitter thread, about his research in Vanuatu, and more.
posted by gudrun at 8:18 AM on May 30, 2023 [9 favorites]
See this moving Twitter thread, about his research in Vanuatu, and more.
posted by gudrun at 8:18 AM on May 30, 2023 [9 favorites]
Sporadic drone attacks on Moscow might serve non-military objectives. Increasing discontent within Russia and providing talking points for the various figures already mentioned (Prigozhin, &tc) is one, but they may also be targeted at boosting morale of the Ukranian people. The Dolittle Raid of WW2 is one example of this type of operation that comes to mind.
posted by Walleye at 8:23 AM on May 30, 2023 [6 favorites]
posted by Walleye at 8:23 AM on May 30, 2023 [6 favorites]
What is the word on the street right now in Moscow?
Last week, Yevgeny Prigozhin - the head of the Wagner Group - basically said Russia was on the brink of revolution because the war was going so badly (but, to be clear, not in a give-peace-a-chance way but rather a why-are-we-losing way). He walked back those comments this past weekend saying he wasn't endorsing a coup, but when you have to say "let's not do a coup" in public, well why are you still asking questions that are answered by my "no coup" tee shirt et cetera.
posted by mightygodking at 8:30 AM on May 30, 2023 [4 favorites]
Last week, Yevgeny Prigozhin - the head of the Wagner Group - basically said Russia was on the brink of revolution because the war was going so badly (but, to be clear, not in a give-peace-a-chance way but rather a why-are-we-losing way). He walked back those comments this past weekend saying he wasn't endorsing a coup, but when you have to say "let's not do a coup" in public, well why are you still asking questions that are answered by my "no coup" tee shirt et cetera.
posted by mightygodking at 8:30 AM on May 30, 2023 [4 favorites]
I concur with @Walleye. The Dolittle Raid was the first thing I thought of.
The F-16's are going to do diddly squat other than get pilots killed unless Unkraine can suppress/destroy Russian air defenses.
Nobody who knows anything about military affairs thinks they will be a game-changer, but this comment betrays ignorance. The F-16s will do things the old Warsaw Pact fighters the Ukrainians currently have cannot, #1 being "they can fire AMRAAMs."
I have read comments by people who a paid to think about such things to the effect that in a situation like this, where the competitors bring all the elements of modern air defense, the SEAD concept is obsolete. The MANPADS are too effective to really achieve the SEAD component of air supremacy in that environment.
posted by Aardvark Cheeselog at 8:35 AM on May 30, 2023 [1 favorite]
The F-16's are going to do diddly squat other than get pilots killed unless Unkraine can suppress/destroy Russian air defenses.
Nobody who knows anything about military affairs thinks they will be a game-changer, but this comment betrays ignorance. The F-16s will do things the old Warsaw Pact fighters the Ukrainians currently have cannot, #1 being "they can fire AMRAAMs."
I have read comments by people who a paid to think about such things to the effect that in a situation like this, where the competitors bring all the elements of modern air defense, the SEAD concept is obsolete. The MANPADS are too effective to really achieve the SEAD component of air supremacy in that environment.
posted by Aardvark Cheeselog at 8:35 AM on May 30, 2023 [1 favorite]
Ryan McBeth had a pretty concise summary of what the F-16 would add to Ukraine (SLYT), #1 was AMRAAMs as Aardvark Cheeselog says, and #2 is firing the HARM missile. As he describes it, the F-16 is well-designed to destroy enemy air defense and could lead to much better control of the airspace.
posted by Walleye at 9:02 AM on May 30, 2023
posted by Walleye at 9:02 AM on May 30, 2023
Some thoughts from Ukrainian journalist Oleksandra Povoroznyk on the immense stress she and others are under living in Kyiv.
posted by Harald74 at 9:24 AM on May 30, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 9:24 AM on May 30, 2023 [2 favorites]
Volodomyr recently updated his visualization of air sirens in Kyiv and other places in Ukraine. Every day and night, in red, the number of hours where your city is warning you that Putin is trying to murder civilians in cities. I can't imagine living with that fear for 14 months now.
Volodomyr shares this set of donation links and in his recent tweet suggests in particular Come Back Alive.
posted by Nelson at 10:10 AM on May 30, 2023
Volodomyr shares this set of donation links and in his recent tweet suggests in particular Come Back Alive.
posted by Nelson at 10:10 AM on May 30, 2023
Ryan McBeth explains what F-16s do for Ukraine.
posted by interogative mood at 10:13 AM on May 30, 2023
posted by interogative mood at 10:13 AM on May 30, 2023
An F-16 mechanic's opinion on the challenges facing F-16-s in Ukraine (mind you: on the internet no one knows you are a dog):
- the F-16 air intake is very sensitive to dirt, requires spotless airfields
- the maintenance is very complex
- no aerial refuelling puts East Ukraine out of range if the plan is to fly from West Ukraine or from Poland/Romania.
posted by kmt at 10:24 AM on May 30, 2023 [1 favorite]
- the F-16 air intake is very sensitive to dirt, requires spotless airfields
- the maintenance is very complex
- no aerial refuelling puts East Ukraine out of range if the plan is to fly from West Ukraine or from Poland/Romania.
posted by kmt at 10:24 AM on May 30, 2023 [1 favorite]
Is there any consensus on the Moscow drone attack? False Flag? Partisans? Revolutionaries? Actually the Ukrainian Armed Forces?
posted by sammyo at 11:42 AM on May 30, 2023
posted by sammyo at 11:42 AM on May 30, 2023
@Walleye:
I'm pretty sure the Ukrainians have HARMs via an upgrade to MiG-25s that were in transitional NATO service before former Warsaw Pact NATO members got their Western jets. IDK if the F-16s would be a lot better as a platform for that or not. But there are other NATO weapons it opens up for surface attack, that the MiGs can't work with.
Personally if I were Zelensky I would be wishing for Gripens instead, for reasons hinted at by @kmt: it is practically purpose-built for the Ukrainian side in this fight. But not hoping for them: there's not a small air force's worth of them lying around loose.
posted by Aardvark Cheeselog at 11:49 AM on May 30, 2023
I'm pretty sure the Ukrainians have HARMs via an upgrade to MiG-25s that were in transitional NATO service before former Warsaw Pact NATO members got their Western jets. IDK if the F-16s would be a lot better as a platform for that or not. But there are other NATO weapons it opens up for surface attack, that the MiGs can't work with.
Personally if I were Zelensky I would be wishing for Gripens instead, for reasons hinted at by @kmt: it is practically purpose-built for the Ukrainian side in this fight. But not hoping for them: there's not a small air force's worth of them lying around loose.
posted by Aardvark Cheeselog at 11:49 AM on May 30, 2023
I don't see anyone saying this was done by Ukraine. It might be the same neo-Nazi group of Russians that attacked Russia recently, or a different group of Russians. I can't see an independent group of Ukrainians bothering to do this -- they know their skills and resources could be better used elsewhere.
It's either a false flag or Russians themselves, is what I'm seeing right now.
posted by hippybear at 11:51 AM on May 30, 2023
It's either a false flag or Russians themselves, is what I'm seeing right now.
posted by hippybear at 11:51 AM on May 30, 2023
The Ukrainians have jury-rigged HARMs to their MiG-29s and Su-27's-or-family, but the consensus seems to be (I know nothing about this) that their jury-rig probably only lets them use the simplest modes on the missile instead of the clever tricks. F-16s have the data bus to use all the good tricks.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 12:16 PM on May 30, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 12:16 PM on May 30, 2023 [2 favorites]
I feel like I've seen this movie before where "experts" on the internet explain why Ukraine can't get Patriots, M-1 Abrams, HIMARS, etc because of very simliar issues raised by the mechanic; and those things turn out not to be the so insurmountable after all. Most of those concerns such as pristine airways seem like problems that can be solved and probably are not nearly the "problems" we think they are.
posted by interogative mood at 12:21 PM on May 30, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 12:21 PM on May 30, 2023 [3 favorites]
"pristine airways"
I just heard a thing this morning about how during D-Day the Allies floating a huge number of balloons with mines dangling beneath them to prevent Axis aircraft from diving low enough to do runs against the Allied troops.
I'm not suggesting this is a thing that would work today, but the idea of complicating airways has long been a thing that has been thought about and something that even very basic systems can thwart.
posted by hippybear at 12:27 PM on May 30, 2023
I just heard a thing this morning about how during D-Day the Allies floating a huge number of balloons with mines dangling beneath them to prevent Axis aircraft from diving low enough to do runs against the Allied troops.
I'm not suggesting this is a thing that would work today, but the idea of complicating airways has long been a thing that has been thought about and something that even very basic systems can thwart.
posted by hippybear at 12:27 PM on May 30, 2023
Is there any consensus on the Moscow drone attack?
Certainly no fact-based one, it's been less than 24 hours.
posted by Nelson at 12:29 PM on May 30, 2023
Certainly no fact-based one, it's been less than 24 hours.
posted by Nelson at 12:29 PM on May 30, 2023
I meant pristine runways. Debris on the runway is a problem for most jet aircraft. When a jet engine sucks in a bit of debris from the runway bad things happen. Supposedly some Soviet aircraft have systems to protect the aircraft from shit on the runway; but I doubt pilots would rely on it as anything other than a backup. If your engine sucks in something on takeoff that’s pretty fatal.
posted by interogative mood at 12:35 PM on May 30, 2023
posted by interogative mood at 12:35 PM on May 30, 2023
Don't clarify, I'm lost in a reverie of visions of mined balloons flying silently in the Ukrainian skies.
posted by hippybear at 12:40 PM on May 30, 2023 [7 favorites]
posted by hippybear at 12:40 PM on May 30, 2023 [7 favorites]
I just heard a thing this morning about how during D-Day the Allies floating a huge number of balloons with mines dangling beneath them to prevent Axis aircraft from diving low enough to do runs against the Allied troops.
Possibly you heard "lines" beneath them? Barrage balloons were tethered balloons that made it too dangerous for planes to fly through because they might hit a line and lose a wing.
Apparently, the unit responsible for these was the only African-American unit to land on D-Day.
posted by justkevin at 1:01 PM on May 30, 2023 [7 favorites]
Possibly you heard "lines" beneath them? Barrage balloons were tethered balloons that made it too dangerous for planes to fly through because they might hit a line and lose a wing.
Apparently, the unit responsible for these was the only African-American unit to land on D-Day.
posted by justkevin at 1:01 PM on May 30, 2023 [7 favorites]
Ukraine denied direct involvement in the attack but also predicted more attacks in the future. This sounds like the usual wink and nudge sarcastic denial.
posted by interogative mood at 1:25 PM on May 30, 2023
posted by interogative mood at 1:25 PM on May 30, 2023
Or is a "we didn't do this, but someone did and we can't stop them if they do more and that's likely".
They don't have to be involved to realize what's going on.
posted by hippybear at 2:06 PM on May 30, 2023
They don't have to be involved to realize what's going on.
posted by hippybear at 2:06 PM on May 30, 2023
"Are you throwing rocks at my car?"
"No, that's Janice, the local raven. We can't do anything about it, but she's like that. Enjoy."
posted by hippybear at 2:08 PM on May 30, 2023 [2 favorites]
"No, that's Janice, the local raven. We can't do anything about it, but she's like that. Enjoy."
posted by hippybear at 2:08 PM on May 30, 2023 [2 favorites]
the Ukrainians have HARMs via an upgrade to MiG-25s that were in transitional NATO service before former Warsaw Pact NATO members got their Western jets.
You mean MiG-29s, and, no, probably not. Not like the F-16, anyway, which integrates the HARM Targeting System.
A lot of incorrect conjecture in this thread.
Yes, the F-16's especially low and gaping underslung intake is famously especially vulnerable to foreign object damage; it needs very clean runways. Operating in less sterile environments is one of the reasons the F-18's intakes are where they are, or even moreso the A-10.
Meanwhile, those 'protections' on Soviet aircraft types aren't just 'backups,' they can entirely bypass the front intakes for rough field operations.
Omega Tau Podcast: Flying the F-16 Viper
posted by snuffleupagus at 6:40 PM on May 30, 2023
You mean MiG-29s, and, no, probably not. Not like the F-16, anyway, which integrates the HARM Targeting System.
A lot of incorrect conjecture in this thread.
Yes, the F-16's especially low and gaping underslung intake is famously especially vulnerable to foreign object damage; it needs very clean runways. Operating in less sterile environments is one of the reasons the F-18's intakes are where they are, or even moreso the A-10.
Meanwhile, those 'protections' on Soviet aircraft types aren't just 'backups,' they can entirely bypass the front intakes for rough field operations.
Omega Tau Podcast: Flying the F-16 Viper
posted by snuffleupagus at 6:40 PM on May 30, 2023
Luftwaffe MiG-29 manual -- bypassing the front intake when on the ground discussed at 1-5.
See also Justin Bronk of RUSI on 'which NATO fighter is best for Ukraine.'
posted by snuffleupagus at 6:48 PM on May 30, 2023 [1 favorite]
See also Justin Bronk of RUSI on 'which NATO fighter is best for Ukraine.'
posted by snuffleupagus at 6:48 PM on May 30, 2023 [1 favorite]
I wonder if barrage balloons today could help shield against drone strikes? I suspect not, as drones are disposable to a much greater extent than manned airframes and air crew, and could just push their way through a barrage balloon cordon with acceptable losses.
posted by Harald74 at 12:28 AM on May 31, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by Harald74 at 12:28 AM on May 31, 2023 [1 favorite]
Somewhat balloon-related, as Czech company Inflatech are providing inflatable decoy equipment to the Ukrainians. They might seem somewhat silly, but consider that inflatable decoys were used on quite a big scale during WWII and the technology today is more sophisticated.
Infatech's decoys are radar reflective to match the expected signature of the target (I guess by just including metal foil in the structure?), and has channels for hot air to be pumped in, said to give a very convincing thermal signature where you expect to see engines and mufflers and stuff on a real vehicle.
They've provided HIMARS decoys earlier, and now will deliver Leopard 2A4s. Having a decoy blown up is of course less expensive (and deadly!) than having the real thing hit, but they can also be used for feints and training purposes.
posted by Harald74 at 12:41 AM on May 31, 2023 [6 favorites]
Infatech's decoys are radar reflective to match the expected signature of the target (I guess by just including metal foil in the structure?), and has channels for hot air to be pumped in, said to give a very convincing thermal signature where you expect to see engines and mufflers and stuff on a real vehicle.
They've provided HIMARS decoys earlier, and now will deliver Leopard 2A4s. Having a decoy blown up is of course less expensive (and deadly!) than having the real thing hit, but they can also be used for feints and training purposes.
posted by Harald74 at 12:41 AM on May 31, 2023 [6 favorites]
Here’s a typically clear and concise interview with military analyst Michael Kofman where he gives an overview of what the general situation of the war, while zooming in on several topics, including Bakhmut, F-16s, the incursion into Russia, and several others.
posted by Kattullus at 2:43 AM on May 31, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by Kattullus at 2:43 AM on May 31, 2023 [4 favorites]
Ukraine is losing 10,000 drones per month
That's substantially higher than I would have estimated, although it doesn't differentiate suicide/single use drones.
posted by meowzilla at 11:21 AM on May 31, 2023 [1 favorite]
That's substantially higher than I would have estimated, although it doesn't differentiate suicide/single use drones.
posted by meowzilla at 11:21 AM on May 31, 2023 [1 favorite]
It seems like there are more incursions into Belgorod this morning. Some videos of burning buildings, statements by the Free Russian Legion and the Russian Volunteer Corps, some claims of Russian soldiers and a 2S4 heavy mortar vehicle being taken out.
posted by Harald74 at 2:29 AM on June 1, 2023
posted by Harald74 at 2:29 AM on June 1, 2023
While we're talking about destroyed drones: An American company is awarded a contract for delivering German-made Gepard ADA to Ukraine, that were earlier sold by the Netherlands to Jordan. So five nations involved...
It doesn't say how many, but if it is all 60 that were sold earlier, that would be a huge capability upgrade for Ukraine, about as many units as they have in service now. And with the 35mm production line being re-opened by Rheinmetall, it looks possible to keep them in action as well. A burst of 35mm to bring down a cheap drone is a much better ROI than launching even a shoulder-fired SAM at one.
posted by Harald74 at 6:00 AM on June 1, 2023 [4 favorites]
It doesn't say how many, but if it is all 60 that were sold earlier, that would be a huge capability upgrade for Ukraine, about as many units as they have in service now. And with the 35mm production line being re-opened by Rheinmetall, it looks possible to keep them in action as well. A burst of 35mm to bring down a cheap drone is a much better ROI than launching even a shoulder-fired SAM at one.
posted by Harald74 at 6:00 AM on June 1, 2023 [4 favorites]
Kyiv’s mayor, Vitali Klitschko, appeared on national television shortly after residents of the capital were jolted from bed by a third wave of attacks in 24 hours. He posed a question that captured the anger of many in the city. “If the Russians can make Kyiv a nightmare, why do the people of Moscow rest?”
The mayor of Kyiv is a former professional heavyweight boxer and WBO champion (his brother is an olympic gold medalist). They are the children of a Soviet military officer who participated in the occupation of Czechoslovakia. Eastern Europe is such a complicated place.
posted by srboisvert at 4:20 PM on June 1, 2023 [2 favorites]
The mayor of Kyiv is a former professional heavyweight boxer and WBO champion (his brother is an olympic gold medalist). They are the children of a Soviet military officer who participated in the occupation of Czechoslovakia. Eastern Europe is such a complicated place.
posted by srboisvert at 4:20 PM on June 1, 2023 [2 favorites]
10,000 drones a month is a number but without context and details that is all it is. Is it a lot or a little in the scale of this war. Ukraine uses 2000-7000 artillery shells a day. Russia has been losing more than 10,000 soldiers a month recently.
posted by interogative mood at 6:24 PM on June 1, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 6:24 PM on June 1, 2023 [2 favorites]
Wagner chief Prigozhin did at one point illustrate and write a children's book.
posted by Harald74 at 10:45 PM on June 1, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by Harald74 at 10:45 PM on June 1, 2023 [1 favorite]
Dara Massicot writes about the looming Russian PTSD and social issues in The Economist, summarised in this thread:
The Russian military's problems go beyond casualties and equipment losses. It faces two looming crises in retention and veteran PTSD and other disorders, when its soldiers are allowed to leave Ukraine.
Since President Vladimir Putin’s partial-mobilisation decree in September 2022, no Russian personnel fighting in Ukraine have been allowed to leave the armed forces, and none will be until the “period of partial mobilisation” is ended by another decree. Currently, the only ways out—apart from death in combat—are reaching mandatory retirement age, medical discharge or imprisonment. Some soldiers have taken matters into their own hands by deserting.
posted by Harald74 at 2:31 AM on June 2, 2023 [2 favorites]
The Russian military's problems go beyond casualties and equipment losses. It faces two looming crises in retention and veteran PTSD and other disorders, when its soldiers are allowed to leave Ukraine.
Since President Vladimir Putin’s partial-mobilisation decree in September 2022, no Russian personnel fighting in Ukraine have been allowed to leave the armed forces, and none will be until the “period of partial mobilisation” is ended by another decree. Currently, the only ways out—apart from death in combat—are reaching mandatory retirement age, medical discharge or imprisonment. Some soldiers have taken matters into their own hands by deserting.
posted by Harald74 at 2:31 AM on June 2, 2023 [2 favorites]
I'm naturally pessimistic, so you can factor that in.
I believe that there's a humanitarian crisis coming, so some extent already arrived for Russia. This is not to downplay the huge damage the Russian government has done in Ukraine. On the moral side, I have no idea how much people are obliged to control "their" governments.
The purpose of sanctions is to do serious damage to the Russian economy and infrastructure., and this may be the least bad strategy available to stop the war, but this doesn't mean the effects of the sanctions are going to only or mostly affect the people responsible for the war.
We're talking about a country which wasn't especially well off, and which has a very challenging climate. If you care about people in general, is help owed to an average Russian baby born yesterday?
I haven't run the numbers (a lot isn't known yet anyway), but my guess is that money confiscated from Russian oligarchs will not be enough to rebuild Ukraine. It may well be enough to help, but it can't be the only resources involved.
I have a hope that Ukraine will win, and Ukrainian soldiers will be the most valued and expensive military advisors in the world. This will presumably also help and not be enough.
The Marshall Plan worked out pretty well, but that was for *defeated* enemies, which presumably will not apply in this case.
posted by Nancy Lebovitz at 5:53 AM on June 2, 2023 [1 favorite]
I believe that there's a humanitarian crisis coming, so some extent already arrived for Russia. This is not to downplay the huge damage the Russian government has done in Ukraine. On the moral side, I have no idea how much people are obliged to control "their" governments.
The purpose of sanctions is to do serious damage to the Russian economy and infrastructure., and this may be the least bad strategy available to stop the war, but this doesn't mean the effects of the sanctions are going to only or mostly affect the people responsible for the war.
We're talking about a country which wasn't especially well off, and which has a very challenging climate. If you care about people in general, is help owed to an average Russian baby born yesterday?
I haven't run the numbers (a lot isn't known yet anyway), but my guess is that money confiscated from Russian oligarchs will not be enough to rebuild Ukraine. It may well be enough to help, but it can't be the only resources involved.
I have a hope that Ukraine will win, and Ukrainian soldiers will be the most valued and expensive military advisors in the world. This will presumably also help and not be enough.
The Marshall Plan worked out pretty well, but that was for *defeated* enemies, which presumably will not apply in this case.
posted by Nancy Lebovitz at 5:53 AM on June 2, 2023 [1 favorite]
Nancy Lebovitz: On the moral side, I have no idea how much people are obliged to control "their" governments.
Zelenskyy: Servant of the People, both in his role as actor and to a large extent as Ukraine's president now.
Putin And His Oligarchs: People are our Servants. One of the reasons they were able to amass their obscene wealth is that the average Russian citizen is so used to pulling the short end of the string when trying to call some part of the government to order that they overwhelmingly choose to stay out of that, and the comparatively few holding the long end greatly prefer it that way.
posted by Stoneshop at 6:51 AM on June 2, 2023
Zelenskyy: Servant of the People, both in his role as actor and to a large extent as Ukraine's president now.
Putin And His Oligarchs: People are our Servants. One of the reasons they were able to amass their obscene wealth is that the average Russian citizen is so used to pulling the short end of the string when trying to call some part of the government to order that they overwhelmingly choose to stay out of that, and the comparatively few holding the long end greatly prefer it that way.
posted by Stoneshop at 6:51 AM on June 2, 2023
If you care about people in general, is help owed to an average Russian baby born yesterday?
Caring doesn’t make it feasible. I personally wouldn’t move to Russia to start a nonprofit right now, even to help babies. I don’t think you can hand Putin a check and make him promise to spend it only on baby stuff.
Apparently, the issue with sanctions is they can’t cut off all Russian fossil fuel sales without tanking the global economy, so their effectiveness is limited. Also, there are a lot of nations still doing business with Russia. Limiting high tech exports to Russia may be more effective, because some of those items are easier to control.
posted by snofoam at 9:29 AM on June 2, 2023 [1 favorite]
Caring doesn’t make it feasible. I personally wouldn’t move to Russia to start a nonprofit right now, even to help babies. I don’t think you can hand Putin a check and make him promise to spend it only on baby stuff.
Apparently, the issue with sanctions is they can’t cut off all Russian fossil fuel sales without tanking the global economy, so their effectiveness is limited. Also, there are a lot of nations still doing business with Russia. Limiting high tech exports to Russia may be more effective, because some of those items are easier to control.
posted by snofoam at 9:29 AM on June 2, 2023 [1 favorite]
they can’t cut off all Russian fossil fuel sales without tanking the global economy
One of those weird overlaps where the climate would greatly benefit from all fossil fuel sales, but we won't do that because we aren't willing to tank the global economy even to save the planet.
That gas pipeline breach that leaked for days was both a blessing and a curse.
posted by hippybear at 12:05 PM on June 2, 2023 [2 favorites]
One of those weird overlaps where the climate would greatly benefit from all fossil fuel sales, but we won't do that because we aren't willing to tank the global economy even to save the planet.
That gas pipeline breach that leaked for days was both a blessing and a curse.
posted by hippybear at 12:05 PM on June 2, 2023 [2 favorites]
One of those weird overlaps where the climate would greatly benefit from all fossil fuel sales, but we won't do that because we aren't willing to tank the global economy even to save the planet.
It's never enough, but things are are shifting a bit. From this weeks IAE report:
With the global energy crisis as a catalyst, solar PV and wind are set to lead the largest annual increase in new renewable capacity ever ...
Global renewable capacity additions are set to soar by 107 gigawatts (GW), the largest absolute increase ever, to more than 440 GW in 2023. Renewables are at the forefront of Europe’s response to the energy crisis, accelerating their growth there.
posted by the_dreamwriter at 12:35 AM on June 3, 2023 [3 favorites]
It's never enough, but things are are shifting a bit. From this weeks IAE report:
With the global energy crisis as a catalyst, solar PV and wind are set to lead the largest annual increase in new renewable capacity ever ...
Global renewable capacity additions are set to soar by 107 gigawatts (GW), the largest absolute increase ever, to more than 440 GW in 2023. Renewables are at the forefront of Europe’s response to the energy crisis, accelerating their growth there.
posted by the_dreamwriter at 12:35 AM on June 3, 2023 [3 favorites]
There was also the recent article (that someone might have linked here) about how Ukraine is prioritizing the construction of new wind and solar facilities since they are so much more resilient to attack. A single missile can cripple a traditional power station, but it would take many accurate missiles to cripple a wind farm. Destroying a single wind turbine doesn't impact the rest of the facility, and small substations are easy to replace. Solar facilities are even harder to cripple this way, since a single missile strike will only destroy a section of panels, leaving the rest of the facility unaffected.
posted by Dip Flash at 8:21 AM on June 3, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by Dip Flash at 8:21 AM on June 3, 2023 [2 favorites]
In case it wasn't linked previously, here's the NY Times article about the resilience value of wind farms.
posted by Dip Flash at 9:17 AM on June 3, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by Dip Flash at 9:17 AM on June 3, 2023 [2 favorites]
Meduza: Even some Meduza readers justify the invasion of Ukraine. We asked them to explain why. Here's what came out. Many of these letters are physically painful to read. Nevertheless, we consider them an important document
[in Russian; Google translate does a good enough job]
Frustrating and fascinating to see the mental gymnastics on exhibit here.
posted by Kabanos at 10:46 AM on June 3, 2023 [5 favorites]
[in Russian; Google translate does a good enough job]
Frustrating and fascinating to see the mental gymnastics on exhibit here.
posted by Kabanos at 10:46 AM on June 3, 2023 [5 favorites]
If you care about people in general, is help owed to an average Russian baby born yesterday?
Russia can immediately help their own babies by retreating from Ukraine. Surely Russians owe this moral duty to their own children. I fully support them in making this decision.
posted by srboisvert at 2:41 PM on June 3, 2023 [8 favorites]
Russia can immediately help their own babies by retreating from Ukraine. Surely Russians owe this moral duty to their own children. I fully support them in making this decision.
posted by srboisvert at 2:41 PM on June 3, 2023 [8 favorites]
ISW's report today is saying that Prigozhin has claimed that the Russian military has placed mines and other explosives along the routes that Wagner is using to withdraw from Bakhmut. Moreover, that they did so with the intent purpose of harming Wagner as they withdraw.
I'm not convinced of anything that Prigozhin says (neither on this nor on anything), but in any case, I love me some internecine Russian military drama.
posted by Flunkie at 6:19 PM on June 3, 2023 [2 favorites]
I'm not convinced of anything that Prigozhin says (neither on this nor on anything), but in any case, I love me some internecine Russian military drama.
posted by Flunkie at 6:19 PM on June 3, 2023 [2 favorites]
I love me some internecine Russian military drama.
I would 100% not be surprised if Wagnerites hit some Russian laid landmines but my guess would be that it wouldn't be so much as a deliberate trap for them so much as incompetence driven by the fragmented nature of the Russian invasion. Would the standard Russian army or any of the other mercenaires share the safe routes that are left in minefields with Wagnerites on the zero line? Wagner's openly antagonistic making info sharing less likely and their soldiers are very likely to be captured or surrender meaning if they knew the safe routes they could spill the beans if captured.
posted by srboisvert at 5:19 AM on June 4, 2023 [4 favorites]
I would 100% not be surprised if Wagnerites hit some Russian laid landmines but my guess would be that it wouldn't be so much as a deliberate trap for them so much as incompetence driven by the fragmented nature of the Russian invasion. Would the standard Russian army or any of the other mercenaires share the safe routes that are left in minefields with Wagnerites on the zero line? Wagner's openly antagonistic making info sharing less likely and their soldiers are very likely to be captured or surrender meaning if they knew the safe routes they could spill the beans if captured.
posted by srboisvert at 5:19 AM on June 4, 2023 [4 favorites]
It could even be as simple as the folks that laid those mines weren't supposed to lay them where they did but the place they were supposed to put them was farther away than they cared to march. Or they were just lost and put them down there by mistake.
But of course they reported back that they did every exactly as ordered.
So yeah, good point that it's more likely incompetence, especially since this is the Russian army we're talking about.
posted by VTX at 6:55 AM on June 4, 2023 [1 favorite]
But of course they reported back that they did every exactly as ordered.
So yeah, good point that it's more likely incompetence, especially since this is the Russian army we're talking about.
posted by VTX at 6:55 AM on June 4, 2023 [1 favorite]
From the NY Times: Russia says they've repulsed the Ukrainian offensive.
What really happened is anybody's guess, right now.
At some point we'll learn the truth of it, but I have found it odd how for the last five months (it feels like) we have been hearing about "The Coming Ukrainian Offensive!" as though ... What, that it's inevitable and inevitable that it will succeed? There's been a heavier-that-previous dose of propaganda/influence peddling to the whole thing which I'm not sure what to do with, or how to interpret - or if it is even worth trying to interpret.
Like a stalking cat getting ready to pounce, or a bull if you want, pawing the ground, Ukraine has been revving and revving and revving and revving and revving. And revving. And revving... it's noticeable and I'm curious what's behind it.
posted by From Bklyn at 11:46 PM on June 4, 2023
What really happened is anybody's guess, right now.
At some point we'll learn the truth of it, but I have found it odd how for the last five months (it feels like) we have been hearing about "The Coming Ukrainian Offensive!" as though ... What, that it's inevitable and inevitable that it will succeed? There's been a heavier-that-previous dose of propaganda/influence peddling to the whole thing which I'm not sure what to do with, or how to interpret - or if it is even worth trying to interpret.
Like a stalking cat getting ready to pounce, or a bull if you want, pawing the ground, Ukraine has been revving and revving and revving and revving and revving. And revving. And revving... it's noticeable and I'm curious what's behind it.
posted by From Bklyn at 11:46 PM on June 4, 2023
A whole lot of factors, presumably. It's in their interest to make the Russians more tense. Life in the trenches is not comfortable, and the Russians seems to have been rather lax in rotating out units, meaning that there is more strain and the troops are tired even before the fighting starts.
And they are still gathering up all the pledged material from the West. The Swedish CV9040C IFVs were spotted on a southbound train just a week ago. I expect the Leopard 2/CV9040C/Archer brigade, and other newly trained and equipped brigades, will be important to have ready already on D-day.
There are also signs of increased Russian infighting between Wagner and regular troops. Ukraine would do well to hit Russian lines where those cracks are forming by themselves.
There will also be a period of confusion and fog-of-war going forward. The Ukrainians have already tightened the reins on the information flow for OPSEC reasons, and the Russians are still "flooding the zone" with all kinds of bullshit as per their information strategy, so no matter what happens there will be weeks or months until the dust settles and we on the outside can get a reasonable accurate picture of the situation.
One other thing is also how the media plays up the offensive. They do love a spectacle, and frame the summer campaign like "make it or break it" for the whole war. Which it probably isn't... The war itself will almost certainly continue into 2024.
posted by Harald74 at 12:05 AM on June 5, 2023 [5 favorites]
And they are still gathering up all the pledged material from the West. The Swedish CV9040C IFVs were spotted on a southbound train just a week ago. I expect the Leopard 2/CV9040C/Archer brigade, and other newly trained and equipped brigades, will be important to have ready already on D-day.
There are also signs of increased Russian infighting between Wagner and regular troops. Ukraine would do well to hit Russian lines where those cracks are forming by themselves.
There will also be a period of confusion and fog-of-war going forward. The Ukrainians have already tightened the reins on the information flow for OPSEC reasons, and the Russians are still "flooding the zone" with all kinds of bullshit as per their information strategy, so no matter what happens there will be weeks or months until the dust settles and we on the outside can get a reasonable accurate picture of the situation.
One other thing is also how the media plays up the offensive. They do love a spectacle, and frame the summer campaign like "make it or break it" for the whole war. Which it probably isn't... The war itself will almost certainly continue into 2024.
posted by Harald74 at 12:05 AM on June 5, 2023 [5 favorites]
The NY Times have been speaking with people in Belgorod Oblast: ‘Everything Changed’: The War Arrives on Russians’ Doorstep
Over the last five days of May, Ruslan, an English teacher in a Russian town near the Ukrainian border, heard the distinct sound of a multiple rocket launcher strike for the first time. Shelling would begin around 3 a.m., sometimes shaking his house, and continue through the morning.posted by Harald74 at 12:06 AM on June 5, 2023
He had heard the thud of explosions in distant villages in the past, he said, and in October shelling damaged a nearby shopping mall. But nothing like this.
“Everything changed,” he said.
Fifteen months after Russian missiles first roared toward Kyiv, residents of the Russian border region of Belgorod are starting to understand the horror of having war on their doorstep.
WarOnTheRocks.com: What The Ukrainian Armed Forces Need To Do To Win
posted by Harald74 at 4:31 AM on June 5, 2023 [2 favorites]
Based on our nine months of training with all services of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, to include the Ground Forces (Army), Border Guard Service, National Guard, Naval Infantry (Marines), Special Operations Forces, and Territorial Defense Forces, we have observed a series of common trends: lack of mission command, effective training, and combined arms operations; ad hoc logistics and maintenance; and improper use of special operations forces. These trends have undermined Ukraine’s resistance and could hinder the success of the ongoing offensive.This article has been quoted widely the last day or so, with a spotlight on the considerable baggage the Ukrainian military still has from its Soviet roots, notwithstanding enormous bravery and skill displayed in this conflict.
How can Ukraine change the formula in their favor? The answer is uniform combined arms training focusing on mission command from the brigade level down, which the Ukrainian Armed Forces can achieve through a repeatable thirty-day “train the trainer” program. This instruction could be carried out by Western contracted military instructors, working with Ukrainian military veterans in Ukraine. This training will enable them to conduct combined arms operations and capitalize on the advantages the influx of advanced Western military equipment provides, and hopefully to enable Ukraine to overcome Russia’s manpower advantages.
posted by Harald74 at 4:31 AM on June 5, 2023 [2 favorites]
A sad story from Finland. Finnish child services take Ukrainian kids into care while mother shops, Russia cites case in anti-Western propaganda. From what I can tell, this is a case of well-meaning people trying to help, but thanks to rash decisions and lack of cultural knowledge, this needlessly blew out of all proportions.
posted by Kattullus at 5:03 AM on June 5, 2023
posted by Kattullus at 5:03 AM on June 5, 2023
In "this battle escalated quickly" news, Prigozhin and Wagner released a video purportedly showing a lieutenant colonel in the Russian army confessing to drunkenly shelling Wagner troops on purpose. I have no idea what to make of this.
posted by Kattullus at 6:02 AM on June 5, 2023
posted by Kattullus at 6:02 AM on June 5, 2023
From the NY Times: Russia says they've repulsed the Ukrainian offensive.
Just a few hours later, there is already more confusion (or nuance?) in the Times' reporting, with some Russian bloggers saying that there have been Ukrainian advances, and other observers saying there has been more fighting in numerous areas but without clarity on what are feints and what are real attacks.
In "this battle escalated quickly" news, Prigozhin and Wagner released a video purportedly showing a lieutenant colonel in the Russian army confessing to drunkenly shelling Wagner troops on purpose. I have no idea what to make of this.
I agree, this just gets weirder and weirder.
posted by Dip Flash at 6:20 AM on June 5, 2023
Just a few hours later, there is already more confusion (or nuance?) in the Times' reporting, with some Russian bloggers saying that there have been Ukrainian advances, and other observers saying there has been more fighting in numerous areas but without clarity on what are feints and what are real attacks.
In "this battle escalated quickly" news, Prigozhin and Wagner released a video purportedly showing a lieutenant colonel in the Russian army confessing to drunkenly shelling Wagner troops on purpose. I have no idea what to make of this.
I agree, this just gets weirder and weirder.
posted by Dip Flash at 6:20 AM on June 5, 2023
revving... it's noticeable and I'm curious what's behind it.
Convincing your enemy to keep troops on alert for long periods wears them out. And "crying wolf" is a good thing from the wolves' perspective. If you can convince your enemy to not even show up because they think it is just another sabre raddling feint that a good result. Getting them to deploy in the wrong space is even better.
posted by Mitheral at 7:22 AM on June 5, 2023 [7 favorites]
Convincing your enemy to keep troops on alert for long periods wears them out. And "crying wolf" is a good thing from the wolves' perspective. If you can convince your enemy to not even show up because they think it is just another sabre raddling feint that a good result. Getting them to deploy in the wrong space is even better.
posted by Mitheral at 7:22 AM on June 5, 2023 [7 favorites]
That "Russia says they've repulsed the Ukrainian offensive" just goes to the NYT's Ukraine-Russia streaming feed, and doesn't (currently) contain the word "repulsed" anywhere in it. The NYT's search function hasn't helped me. Does anyone have an actual permalink for it?
In any case, I'm no military mastermind or anything, but "We've repulsed the offensive", with no more specifics than "the offensive", when by all accounts no such offensive even existed in any significant sense as of at most a few hours ago, in a war where front lines extend for hundreds of miles, seems like it would at best be an exaggeration or wishful thinking.
And that's how I feel before taking into account the words "Russia says".
posted by Flunkie at 2:11 PM on June 5, 2023 [4 favorites]
In any case, I'm no military mastermind or anything, but "We've repulsed the offensive", with no more specifics than "the offensive", when by all accounts no such offensive even existed in any significant sense as of at most a few hours ago, in a war where front lines extend for hundreds of miles, seems like it would at best be an exaggeration or wishful thinking.
And that's how I feel before taking into account the words "Russia says".
posted by Flunkie at 2:11 PM on June 5, 2023 [4 favorites]
I think the Russians have been plenty repulsive in many ways.
posted by Too-Ticky at 2:46 PM on June 5, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by Too-Ticky at 2:46 PM on June 5, 2023 [4 favorites]
steaming feed, more like
Inside Russia: Seeds of Chaos Growing in Russia (6/5), War Tide is Changing (6/4)
1420: Are We Losing? (6/4)
posted by snuffleupagus at 4:44 PM on June 5, 2023 [2 favorites]
Inside Russia: Seeds of Chaos Growing in Russia (6/5), War Tide is Changing (6/4)
1420: Are We Losing? (6/4)
posted by snuffleupagus at 4:44 PM on June 5, 2023 [2 favorites]
That "Russia says they've repulsed the Ukrainian offensive" just goes to the NYT's Ukraine-Russia streaming feed, and doesn't (currently) contain the word "repulsed" anywhere in it. The NYT's search function hasn't helped me. Does anyone have an actual permalink for it?
Those preliminary/short update pieces typically disappear and reappear either as full articles, or as tidbits inside articles. So that one got reduced to a paragraph within this current article:
The Russian Ministry of Defense said on Monday that a major Ukrainian operation had begun at five locations in the eastern Donetsk region and that it had repelled the assaults and inflicted casualties on Ukrainian forces. Moscow’s account could not be independently corroborated.
posted by Dip Flash at 4:58 PM on June 5, 2023 [2 favorites]
Those preliminary/short update pieces typically disappear and reappear either as full articles, or as tidbits inside articles. So that one got reduced to a paragraph within this current article:
The Russian Ministry of Defense said on Monday that a major Ukrainian operation had begun at five locations in the eastern Donetsk region and that it had repelled the assaults and inflicted casualties on Ukrainian forces. Moscow’s account could not be independently corroborated.
posted by Dip Flash at 4:58 PM on June 5, 2023 [2 favorites]
That "Are We Losing" link from 1420 reminded me of... well, 1420, and so I watched a few more episodes after it. The guy at the end (9:07+) of this one about the recent attacks in Belgorod seems to claim that:
posted by Flunkie at 5:33 PM on June 5, 2023 [2 favorites]
- The USSR gave Alaska to the United States;
- "for a while";
- But then the USSR collapsed, so the USA just never gave it back;
- and Russia just "blew it off".
posted by Flunkie at 5:33 PM on June 5, 2023 [2 favorites]
"Russia says they've repulsed the Ukrainian offensive"
You know it's a lie because their lips are moving. These things are usually for an internal audience so, to me, it means that Putin feels a need to reassure his base that things are going well. Probably to blunt the impact of the actual facts yet to emerge revealing exactly the opposite.
I really hope for a massive regime change in Russia if only so we don't have to deal with this constant stream of bullshit all the time. It reminds me so much of dealing with my five year old, particularly at bedtime.
posted by VTX at 6:22 PM on June 5, 2023 [2 favorites]
You know it's a lie because their lips are moving. These things are usually for an internal audience so, to me, it means that Putin feels a need to reassure his base that things are going well. Probably to blunt the impact of the actual facts yet to emerge revealing exactly the opposite.
I really hope for a massive regime change in Russia if only so we don't have to deal with this constant stream of bullshit all the time. It reminds me so much of dealing with my five year old, particularly at bedtime.
posted by VTX at 6:22 PM on June 5, 2023 [2 favorites]
The Russians appear to have destroyed the Nova Kakhovka dam. This is a huge reservoir and among other things stores the water used to cool the big nuclear power plant the Russians have been occupying. It also feeds the canal that provides water to Crimea. This is horrible.
posted by interogative mood at 10:11 PM on June 5, 2023 [6 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 10:11 PM on June 5, 2023 [6 favorites]
Yeah, what's the deal with them sabotaging the Crimea water supply? Have they given up on holding it already? I haven't seen any analysis on that aspect yet.
posted by Harald74 at 11:19 PM on June 5, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 11:19 PM on June 5, 2023 [2 favorites]
From the Kyiv Independent: On Ukraine’s southern front line, tension reigns before decisive counteroffensive
posted by Harald74 at 11:21 PM on June 5, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by Harald74 at 11:21 PM on June 5, 2023 [1 favorite]
"These reservoirs were formed because of the 6 hydroelectric dams on the river: Kyiv, Kaniv, Kremenchuk, Kamianske, Dniepro, and Kakhovka."
OK, so the Orcs have already fucked the infrastructure and environment to the max with this move. What's to stop Ukraine just fully blocking upstream at any of these other points, and suddenly the whole Southern front is open, river not there and you can just walk or drive across? It is not just criminal what the Russians have done, it is STOOPID. Fucking idiots. At least if this led to some genius strategic advantage you could admire them, but I am just so done with these fucking morons having their hands at the controls.
posted by Meatbomb at 11:40 PM on June 5, 2023 [1 favorite]
OK, so the Orcs have already fucked the infrastructure and environment to the max with this move. What's to stop Ukraine just fully blocking upstream at any of these other points, and suddenly the whole Southern front is open, river not there and you can just walk or drive across? It is not just criminal what the Russians have done, it is STOOPID. Fucking idiots. At least if this led to some genius strategic advantage you could admire them, but I am just so done with these fucking morons having their hands at the controls.
posted by Meatbomb at 11:40 PM on June 5, 2023 [1 favorite]
Yeah, what's the deal with them sabotaging the Crimea water supply? Have they given up on holding it already? I haven't seen any analysis on that aspect yet.Well, first, to be fair, I admit I have my suspicions (and those suspicions are, shall we say, pretty strong), but strictly speaking it's not yet clear who is to blame (or, I think, even if it was an intentional thing). But anyway, more directly to your question:
One thing that stood out to me from the ISW's most recent update (published several hours before this happened) was:
The Russian Black Sea Fleet is attempting to mitigate complications with logistical support in occupied Crimea by shifting resources to mainland Russia. Ukrainian Southern Operational Command Spokesperson Natalia Humenyuk reported on June 5 that Russian forces are transferring the Black Sea Fleet’s logistics centers from Sevastopol, occupied Crimea, to Novorossiysk, Krasnodar Krai.[21] Humenyuk stated that Russian forces are moving the logistics centers because of widespread logistical and ammunition provision issues in occupied Crimea.[22] Humenyuk noted that Russian amphibious ships are continuing to maneuver in the Black Sea and enter Sevastopol, but that the overall center of gravity of the Black Sea Fleet appears to be shifting towards Novorossiysk.[23] Recent strikes on Russian concentration areas, logistics hubs, and transportation assets in southern Ukraine may be causing increased anxiety over the security of the Black Sea Fleet, and the move to Krasnodar Krai is likely in part reflective of this fact.Could be coincidence, of course, but....
posted by Flunkie at 11:41 PM on June 5, 2023 [5 favorites]
Background on the dam and flood modelling here.
posted by Meatbomb at 12:24 AM on June 6, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by Meatbomb at 12:24 AM on June 6, 2023 [1 favorite]
Washington Post: Inside the Ukrainian counteroffensive that shocked Putin and reshaped the war (December 29, 2022) (archived version):
Russia had to arm and feed its forces via three crossings: the Antonovsky Bridge, the Antonovsky railway bridge and the Nova Kakhovka dam, part of a hydroelectric facility with a road running on top of it.posted by kmt at 1:25 AM on June 6, 2023
The two bridges were targeted with U.S.-supplied M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems — or HIMARS launchers, which have a range of 50 miles — and were quickly rendered impassable.
“There were moments when we turned off their supply lines completely, and they still managed to build crossings,” Kovalchuk said. “They managed to replenish ammunition. … It was very
difficult.”
Kovalchuk considered flooding the river. The Ukrainians, he said, even conducted a test strike with a HIMARS launcher on one of the floodgates at the Nova Kakhovka dam, making three holes in the metal to see if the Dnieper’s water could be raised enough to stymie Russian crossings but not flood nearby villages.
The test was a success, Kovalchuk said, but the step remained a last resort. He held off.
Keep in mind this was when Russia had a bunch of forces on the right bank of the river in Kherson proper and Ukraine was actively working to limit the ability of those forces to get supplies. The attack described above was focused on the floodgates and raising the river slightly. What we see in the photos and videos is that huge chunk of the dam is gone. That kind of destruction is far beyond what the comparatively small HIMARS bomb could do. It is akin to what the dam busters did to German dams in ww2. Those attacks required specially constructed 4100kg bombs. Even then the bombs had to land in such a way that they rolled down the upstream side of the dam to the base and explode at the right depth. I think that any Ukrainian attack like that would be hard to do in a way that wasn't obvious. Furthermore destroying this dam will result in significant damage to Ukraine's economy. It will take several years rebuild this dam and refill the reservoir. They lose the power output from the dam, the water for agriculture and the ZNPP nuclear plant needs the water to be able to run.
I think there are only two possibilities here. Either the dam had some kind of structural defect that lead to a catastrophic failure or Russia blew it up.
posted by interogative mood at 2:01 PM on June 6, 2023 [1 favorite]
I think there are only two possibilities here. Either the dam had some kind of structural defect that lead to a catastrophic failure or Russia blew it up.
posted by interogative mood at 2:01 PM on June 6, 2023 [1 favorite]
Or they had it wired up (as widely reported), and something went wrong; maybe during a hasty withdrawal.
More cynically: provoke a humanitarian crisis; claim it was an accidental with the cause undetermined; propose a cease fire for evacuation 'with no strings attached' to arrest the counter-offensive and allow re-positioning.
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:10 PM on June 6, 2023 [1 favorite]
More cynically: provoke a humanitarian crisis; claim it was an accidental with the cause undetermined; propose a cease fire for evacuation 'with no strings attached' to arrest the counter-offensive and allow re-positioning.
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:10 PM on June 6, 2023 [1 favorite]
The few things I've seen have suggested it was done to hamper Ukrainian incursions into the territory Russia held on the other side of the river which is now a floodplain. A bit of a move of desperation, really.
posted by hippybear at 8:23 PM on June 6, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by hippybear at 8:23 PM on June 6, 2023 [2 favorites]
More cynically: provoke a humanitarian crisis; claim it was an accidental with the cause undetermined; propose a cease fire for evacuation 'with no strings attached' to arrest the counter-offensive and allow re-positioning.Maybe, but that would seem to me to be difficult to reconcile with a couple facts:
- They've blamed Ukrainian sabotage.
- They've been shelling Ukrainians who are attempting to flee the rising waters.
posted by Flunkie at 8:23 PM on June 6, 2023 [2 favorites]
With reports that Russian forces were seen being swept by the flood I think this was an accident. Russia raised the level of the reservoir this spring to a record fill. My understanding is in the last few days they opened the flood gates. Some possible failure modes come to mind. One would be some
surge of water from snowmelt or the recent unusual spring thunderstorms overwhelmed the capacity of the floodgates and the dam overtopped. Another would be that high flow rate from the record high dam caused a spillway failure leading to a breach. The last one would be that there was an accident involving munitions stored at the dam as part of a contingency where they would blow up the dam.
I think the most likely scenario is one of the first two. Russia had intended to do a controlled release of water via the floodgates to raise the level of the river downstream and prevent a Ukrainian crossing as part of their defenses. So they filled the reservoir to the max and when they thought the offensive was starting opened the gates up. Then either a surge of water caused it to overtop or the spillways failed from the higher record high and sustained flow rates.
posted by interogative mood at 8:53 PM on June 6, 2023 [1 favorite]
surge of water from snowmelt or the recent unusual spring thunderstorms overwhelmed the capacity of the floodgates and the dam overtopped. Another would be that high flow rate from the record high dam caused a spillway failure leading to a breach. The last one would be that there was an accident involving munitions stored at the dam as part of a contingency where they would blow up the dam.
I think the most likely scenario is one of the first two. Russia had intended to do a controlled release of water via the floodgates to raise the level of the river downstream and prevent a Ukrainian crossing as part of their defenses. So they filled the reservoir to the max and when they thought the offensive was starting opened the gates up. Then either a surge of water caused it to overtop or the spillways failed from the higher record high and sustained flow rates.
posted by interogative mood at 8:53 PM on June 6, 2023 [1 favorite]
With reports that Russian forces were seen being swept by the flood I think this was an accident. Russia raised the level of the reservoir this spring to a record fill.
From the June 6 ISW update:
Only minimal if at all.
posted by Stoneshop at 11:37 PM on June 6, 2023 [1 favorite]
From the June 6 ISW update:
Ukrainian officials stated that Russian forces intentionally destroyed the KHPP dam and suggested that the Russian military did not prepare for subsequent flooding. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Ukrainian intelligence indicates that Russian forces conducted an intentional premediated explosion at the dam but did so in a “chaotic” manner that allowed Russian military equipment to be flooded downstream.[13] Zelensky added that the only way to destroy the dam is through mining and emphasized that Russian forces have now occupied the dam for over a year.[14] The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) stated that Russian forces mined the dam shortly after its capture early in the full-scale invasion of Ukraine and later planted additional mines on the locks and supports of the dam in April 2022.[15]My understanding is in the last few days they opened the flood gates.
Only minimal if at all.
posted by Stoneshop at 11:37 PM on June 6, 2023 [1 favorite]
We'll see as more evidence comes out over time, but to me the far and away most likely scenario is a deliberate or accidental Russian sabotage. I would speculate that it was deliberate, as a way of trying to shut off an avenue for the supposed counteroffensive. That Russian soldiers were apparently seen being caught in the flooding doesn't prove anything other than just confirmation that the Russian army doesn't value its soldiers' lives, just like how they use them in "meat waves."
It's also pretty clearly a war crime, but I doubt we'll see consequences come from that. Hopefully this uncorks the supplies of longer-reach weaponry at least, though.
They will be dealing with the ecological consequences (both positive and negative) of this for a long, long time.
posted by Dip Flash at 6:23 AM on June 7, 2023 [3 favorites]
It's also pretty clearly a war crime, but I doubt we'll see consequences come from that. Hopefully this uncorks the supplies of longer-reach weaponry at least, though.
They will be dealing with the ecological consequences (both positive and negative) of this for a long, long time.
posted by Dip Flash at 6:23 AM on June 7, 2023 [3 favorites]
Ukraine has not yet launched the counteroffensive, senior security official says.
Ukraine has not yet launched a planned counteroffensive to win back territory occupied by Russia, and its start will be obvious to everyone when it happens, a senior security official said on Wednesday.
posted by Comrade_robot at 9:00 AM on June 7, 2023 [1 favorite]
Ukraine has not yet launched a planned counteroffensive to win back territory occupied by Russia, and its start will be obvious to everyone when it happens, a senior security official said on Wednesday.
posted by Comrade_robot at 9:00 AM on June 7, 2023 [1 favorite]
Timothy Snyder's guidelines for writing about this catastrophe.
posted by rory at 10:32 AM on June 7, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by rory at 10:32 AM on June 7, 2023 [3 favorites]
Ukraine has not yet launched a planned counteroffensive to win back territory occupied by Russia, and its start will be obvious to everyone when it happens, a senior security official said on Wednesday.
They would say that, though, wouldn't they?
(on the dam, there's a plausible case for the Ukranians to do it if they were attacking along the Donetsk area north of the dam. The flooding caused by the dam breach would protect their right flank from a Russian counteroffensive. Doesn't mean they did do it, of course)
posted by Galvanic at 10:32 AM on June 7, 2023
They would say that, though, wouldn't they?
(on the dam, there's a plausible case for the Ukranians to do it if they were attacking along the Donetsk area north of the dam. The flooding caused by the dam breach would protect their right flank from a Russian counteroffensive. Doesn't mean they did do it, of course)
posted by Galvanic at 10:32 AM on June 7, 2023
on the dam, there's a plausible case for the Ukranians to do it if they were attacking along the Donetsk area north of the dam. The flooding caused by the dam breach would protect their right flank from a Russian counteroffensive. Doesn't mean they did do it, of course
In addition to the major "why would they actually do that?", I'm not sure there is a plausible "how" for the Ukrainians to destroy the dam. Dams are really hard to destroy, and it would almost certainly take a lot more than a missile strike to do so. The Russians have had physical control of the dam for a long time, and it's hard to imagine (though not impossible, I suppose) for a sneaky Ukrainian special forces operation to mine and blow up the dam. Versus the people who have control of the structure and had been accused of mining it long ago.
posted by Dip Flash at 10:36 AM on June 7, 2023 [3 favorites]
In addition to the major "why would they actually do that?", I'm not sure there is a plausible "how" for the Ukrainians to destroy the dam. Dams are really hard to destroy, and it would almost certainly take a lot more than a missile strike to do so. The Russians have had physical control of the dam for a long time, and it's hard to imagine (though not impossible, I suppose) for a sneaky Ukrainian special forces operation to mine and blow up the dam. Versus the people who have control of the structure and had been accused of mining it long ago.
posted by Dip Flash at 10:36 AM on June 7, 2023 [3 favorites]
The Russians had physical control of the Kerch Strait bridge, too.
In fact, the way the Ukrainians may have taken out the bridge (a naval drone packed with explosives) would have worked against the dam as well.
The Ukrainians have shown the ability to mount difficult operations against major infrastructure (the bridge, the Nord Stream pipeline) and this fits with that.
Again, I'm not saying they did, I'm just saying that there is a plausible why and how for them doing it.
posted by Galvanic at 10:45 AM on June 7, 2023
In fact, the way the Ukrainians may have taken out the bridge (a naval drone packed with explosives) would have worked against the dam as well.
The Ukrainians have shown the ability to mount difficult operations against major infrastructure (the bridge, the Nord Stream pipeline) and this fits with that.
Again, I'm not saying they did, I'm just saying that there is a plausible why and how for them doing it.
posted by Galvanic at 10:45 AM on June 7, 2023
I assure you, a dam is built to be much much much much much much more durable than a bridge. Or a pipeline, for that matter.
posted by hippybear at 11:38 AM on June 7, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by hippybear at 11:38 AM on June 7, 2023 [4 favorites]
Infrastructure like the Kerch Straight Bridge and the NordStream pipeline are not important to the economy and health of Ukrainian citizens. The impacts of the humanitarian disaster this collapse has created are much greater than any benefit from maybe stopping some hypothetical but extremely difficult to pull of flanking attack by Russia across the Dnipro near Kherson. On top of that you would have to believe that they drowned thousands of their own people who are trapped under Russian occupation. That kind of speculation should require a bit more evidence than has been presented thus far.
posted by interogative mood at 11:39 AM on June 7, 2023 [5 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 11:39 AM on June 7, 2023 [5 favorites]
I assure you, a dam is built to be much much much much much much more durable than a bridge. Or a pipeline, for that matter.
I'm happy to assure you in return that a naval drone loaded with 5,000 pounds of explosive really doesn't care how durable the dam is.
At this point, it's all speculation about who did it, whether Russians or Ukrainians.
posted by Galvanic at 12:00 PM on June 7, 2023
I'm happy to assure you in return that a naval drone loaded with 5,000 pounds of explosive really doesn't care how durable the dam is.
At this point, it's all speculation about who did it, whether Russians or Ukrainians.
posted by Galvanic at 12:00 PM on June 7, 2023
In fact, the way the Ukrainians may have taken out the bridge (a naval drone packed with explosives) would have worked against the dam as well.
The Ukrainians have shown the ability to mount difficult operations against major infrastructure (the bridge, the Nord Stream pipeline) and this fits with that.
Unless I missed new analyses, the Kerch attach was almost certainly from the deck, not from below.
Without having physical control of the dam, I don't see how anyone could possibly have planted the quantities of explosives needed to destroy it from the inside. Like, this would have been truckloads, not something hidden in a backpack. (Now, given that the Russians had been accused a long time back of mining the dam, theoretically someone could sneak in and set off the Russian-planted explosives, but that's not the most straightforward explanation.)
posted by Dip Flash at 12:03 PM on June 7, 2023 [1 favorite]
The Ukrainians have shown the ability to mount difficult operations against major infrastructure (the bridge, the Nord Stream pipeline) and this fits with that.
Unless I missed new analyses, the Kerch attach was almost certainly from the deck, not from below.
Without having physical control of the dam, I don't see how anyone could possibly have planted the quantities of explosives needed to destroy it from the inside. Like, this would have been truckloads, not something hidden in a backpack. (Now, given that the Russians had been accused a long time back of mining the dam, theoretically someone could sneak in and set off the Russian-planted explosives, but that's not the most straightforward explanation.)
posted by Dip Flash at 12:03 PM on June 7, 2023 [1 favorite]
It this point, it's all speculation about who did it, whether Russians or Ukrainians.
Well, there's speculation and informed speculation. I'll go with the ISW on this one:
Well, there's speculation and informed speculation. I'll go with the ISW on this one:
ISW cannot offer a definitive assessment of responsibility for the June 6 incident at this time but finds that the balance of evidence, reasoning, and rhetoric suggests that the Russians deliberately damaged the dam.posted by mazola at 12:09 PM on June 7, 2023 [4 favorites]
a naval drone loaded with 5,000 pounds
That's probably not enough explosives, really.
posted by hippybear at 12:17 PM on June 7, 2023 [2 favorites]
That's probably not enough explosives, really.
posted by hippybear at 12:17 PM on June 7, 2023 [2 favorites]
Galvanic: In fact, the way the Ukrainians may have taken out the bridge (a naval drone packed with explosives) would have worked against the dam as well.
The Kerch Strait bridge was NOT attacked by a remote controlled surface vessel. There was significant scorching on top of the road deck, crash barriers blown outwards, sideways on both sides of the northbound lanes, and a hole punched down through the deck. There was also no blast damage or scorching on the underside of the road deck.
Galvanic: I'm happy to assure you in return that a naval drone loaded with 5,000 pounds of explosive really doesn't care how durable the dam is.
Even if that would be enough (it isn't) it will only punch out a single gate. Not even two as you would have to hit the support between two gates just the right way to have a chance of getting it to collapse and take the two gates out. And to breach five gates in two separate sections of the dam is right. fucking. impossible with "a naval drone loaded with 5000 pounds"; you need several. Never mind that these would have been a good deal bigger than the ones seen in the attacks on Sevastopol and the Ivan Khurs, as those had just 200kg payload.
Furthermore, what would Ukraine have to gain from blowing the dam? Protecting their right flank from troops in southern Kherson oblast if the attack is south from Zaporizhia? That would actually open up southern Kherson for an attack across the Dnipro, where the two actual land passages into Crimea are.
And Ukraine actually takes care in trying to avoid civilian casualties. Blowing that dam goes right against that.
posted by Stoneshop at 2:02 PM on June 7, 2023 [6 favorites]
The Kerch Strait bridge was NOT attacked by a remote controlled surface vessel. There was significant scorching on top of the road deck, crash barriers blown outwards, sideways on both sides of the northbound lanes, and a hole punched down through the deck. There was also no blast damage or scorching on the underside of the road deck.
Galvanic: I'm happy to assure you in return that a naval drone loaded with 5,000 pounds of explosive really doesn't care how durable the dam is.
Even if that would be enough (it isn't) it will only punch out a single gate. Not even two as you would have to hit the support between two gates just the right way to have a chance of getting it to collapse and take the two gates out. And to breach five gates in two separate sections of the dam is right. fucking. impossible with "a naval drone loaded with 5000 pounds"; you need several. Never mind that these would have been a good deal bigger than the ones seen in the attacks on Sevastopol and the Ivan Khurs, as those had just 200kg payload.
Furthermore, what would Ukraine have to gain from blowing the dam? Protecting their right flank from troops in southern Kherson oblast if the attack is south from Zaporizhia? That would actually open up southern Kherson for an attack across the Dnipro, where the two actual land passages into Crimea are.
And Ukraine actually takes care in trying to avoid civilian casualties. Blowing that dam goes right against that.
posted by Stoneshop at 2:02 PM on June 7, 2023 [6 favorites]
Yeah, all the stuff I've seen so far from dam-and-or-explosives experts (of which I am neither) have pretty strongly leaned towards "It's possible to take out a major dam like this via an external attack, and I don't want to say it definitely wasn't the case here, but...."
Put that together with it seeming to be an utterly crazy -- not to mention phenomenally difficult -- thing for Ukrainians to do (in multiple ways), plus, well, the Russian government and military being the Russian government and military, and I feel pretty comfortable in thinking the blame lies with Russia.
posted by Flunkie at 2:55 PM on June 7, 2023 [4 favorites]
Put that together with it seeming to be an utterly crazy -- not to mention phenomenally difficult -- thing for Ukrainians to do (in multiple ways), plus, well, the Russian government and military being the Russian government and military, and I feel pretty comfortable in thinking the blame lies with Russia.
posted by Flunkie at 2:55 PM on June 7, 2023 [4 favorites]
There is no evidence of a major explosion prior to the dam’s collapse. Unlike the dams blow up by the British in ww2 this was a low head barrage style dam. This consists of a set of flanking piers that support gates to hold back the water. The piers sit on top of a bar shaped structure.
Satellite photos show that between May 28th and June 5th a roadway and the pier it drove over collapsed. The inflow and outflow pattern as water moved through the gates underwent an observable change. Prior to the roadway/pier collapse the flow of water over the dam appears to be widely distributed and as water exits the dam it flattens out on top of the water — as one would expect. In the June 5 photo you can see the water flow toward the dam narrows to a single point where there is even a bit of a rapids upstream. As it left the structure is was flowing in a more narrow and deeper flow pattern.
That looks to my non-expert eyes a lot like this.
posted by interogative mood at 3:34 PM on June 7, 2023 [2 favorites]
Satellite photos show that between May 28th and June 5th a roadway and the pier it drove over collapsed. The inflow and outflow pattern as water moved through the gates underwent an observable change. Prior to the roadway/pier collapse the flow of water over the dam appears to be widely distributed and as water exits the dam it flattens out on top of the water — as one would expect. In the June 5 photo you can see the water flow toward the dam narrows to a single point where there is even a bit of a rapids upstream. As it left the structure is was flowing in a more narrow and deeper flow pattern.
That looks to my non-expert eyes a lot like this.
posted by interogative mood at 3:34 PM on June 7, 2023 [2 favorites]
The Economist: "The explosions in the early morning were so strong that windows trembled a full 80km away."
Granted that's a flavor quote not a forensic examination, but an explosive blast wave has been reported by multiple sources, and that's clearly distinguishable from just a loud sound of structural failure.
posted by away for regrooving at 3:43 PM on June 7, 2023 [1 favorite]
Granted that's a flavor quote not a forensic examination, but an explosive blast wave has been reported by multiple sources, and that's clearly distinguishable from just a loud sound of structural failure.
posted by away for regrooving at 3:43 PM on June 7, 2023 [1 favorite]
Here's the NY Times' summary of expert opinion on the dam breach:
A deliberate explosion inside the Kakhovka dam, on the front line of the war in Ukraine, most likely caused its collapse on Tuesday, according to engineering and munitions experts, who said that structural failure or an attack from outside the dam were possible but less plausible explanations.
It's far from a slam dunk, but at least currently that appears to be the expert opinion. I won't be surprised if the US releases or leaks some intelligence information at some point, but that hasn't happened based on the reporting.
posted by Dip Flash at 3:47 PM on June 7, 2023
A deliberate explosion inside the Kakhovka dam, on the front line of the war in Ukraine, most likely caused its collapse on Tuesday, according to engineering and munitions experts, who said that structural failure or an attack from outside the dam were possible but less plausible explanations.
It's far from a slam dunk, but at least currently that appears to be the expert opinion. I won't be surprised if the US releases or leaks some intelligence information at some point, but that hasn't happened based on the reporting.
posted by Dip Flash at 3:47 PM on June 7, 2023
The tweet by Oliver Carrol of the Economist claiming there was a huge explosion has been widely criticized and several experts have pointed out that for windows to rattle 80km away you would need a nuclear sized explosion to create that big a blast wave. The reporter has not deleted the tweet but they have turned off comments. The BBC fact checking team has deemed these reports not credible on their UkraineCast podcast today.
There has been an alleged drone video posted on telegram that shows an explosion but this appears to have happened after the dam breached.
posted by interogative mood at 4:12 PM on June 7, 2023 [5 favorites]
There has been an alleged drone video posted on telegram that shows an explosion but this appears to have happened after the dam breached.
posted by interogative mood at 4:12 PM on June 7, 2023 [5 favorites]
Anders Rasmussen, former head of NATO and currently official advisor to Volodymyr Zelenskiy, suggests that several East European countries are willing to send forces into Ukraine, that Ukraine should be given a clear path to NATO membership, with security guarantees covering the time in between.
posted by Stoneshop at 4:29 AM on June 8, 2023
posted by Stoneshop at 4:29 AM on June 8, 2023
Neil Hauer: "We've got our first footage of Ukrainian Leopard tanks in action in Zaporizhzhia. Safe to say the counteroffensive is well and truly underway."
Julian Röpcke: "I can confirm that Ukrainian Leopard 2A4 are advancing in different directions south of Orikhiv and are facing stiff Russian resistance from minefields and artillery. Outcome of the battle is entirely open.
I have the exact location, but won't share for now. Here we go."
posted by kmt at 4:35 AM on June 8, 2023
Julian Röpcke: "I can confirm that Ukrainian Leopard 2A4 are advancing in different directions south of Orikhiv and are facing stiff Russian resistance from minefields and artillery. Outcome of the battle is entirely open.
I have the exact location, but won't share for now. Here we go."
posted by kmt at 4:35 AM on June 8, 2023
Apparently thinking that the current brain drain isn't bad enough, Russia will soon force their literal rocket scientist to go to the front.
posted by Harald74 at 5:02 AM on June 8, 2023
posted by Harald74 at 5:02 AM on June 8, 2023
I'm happy to assure you in return that a naval drone loaded with 5,000 pounds of explosive really doesn't care how durable the dam is.
The famous dam busters raid of WW2 relied on 9000lb bombs that had to land and sink right up against the upstream side of the dam to cause a breach. This dam was designed to survive a nuclear strike. There is really no doubt that the Russians are responsible for this incident. Either they blew it up (there is some new seismic data that indicates there may have been an explosion) or there was a slow cascading failure starting sometime between the 4th and 5th of June that they failed to take any steps to stop either because of malfeasance or incompetence.
What we know for certain at this point is that the Russians filled the dam to a record level this spring and then it collapsed suddenly. We know that Russia has engaged in acts of genocide and has aggressively targeted civilians and civilian infrastructure in an attempt to destroy Ukraine. Even now Russians are shelling civilians attempting to flee the flooding and preventing humanitarian assistance from entering the area. Yet you insist on contriving a scenario where Ukraine did it. Why?
posted by interogative mood at 9:40 AM on June 8, 2023 [11 favorites]
The famous dam busters raid of WW2 relied on 9000lb bombs that had to land and sink right up against the upstream side of the dam to cause a breach. This dam was designed to survive a nuclear strike. There is really no doubt that the Russians are responsible for this incident. Either they blew it up (there is some new seismic data that indicates there may have been an explosion) or there was a slow cascading failure starting sometime between the 4th and 5th of June that they failed to take any steps to stop either because of malfeasance or incompetence.
What we know for certain at this point is that the Russians filled the dam to a record level this spring and then it collapsed suddenly. We know that Russia has engaged in acts of genocide and has aggressively targeted civilians and civilian infrastructure in an attempt to destroy Ukraine. Even now Russians are shelling civilians attempting to flee the flooding and preventing humanitarian assistance from entering the area. Yet you insist on contriving a scenario where Ukraine did it. Why?
posted by interogative mood at 9:40 AM on June 8, 2023 [11 favorites]
I'm going to go with: The Russian military did it on purpose but bungled the execution so badly it looks like it could have been an accident.
It's really weird that every time there's an event like this and Russia claims it wasn't them that people feel the need to treat that statement like it's good faith and not complete BS just like it's been every single time a spokesperson for the regime flaps their lips.
And yet every time we end up spending thousands of words analysing every possible scenario in which it could have anyone else. I'm all for staying objective around these kinds of things but you really have to consider your opinions when you're grasping for reasons Russia didn't just do whatever shitty thing they just did.
posted by VTX at 10:32 AM on June 8, 2023 [7 favorites]
It's really weird that every time there's an event like this and Russia claims it wasn't them that people feel the need to treat that statement like it's good faith and not complete BS just like it's been every single time a spokesperson for the regime flaps their lips.
And yet every time we end up spending thousands of words analysing every possible scenario in which it could have anyone else. I'm all for staying objective around these kinds of things but you really have to consider your opinions when you're grasping for reasons Russia didn't just do whatever shitty thing they just did.
posted by VTX at 10:32 AM on June 8, 2023 [7 favorites]
Yet you insist on contriving a scenario where Ukraine did it. Why?
Sky news just had segment that I saw on Youtube that indirectly could provide an explanation for why Ukraine might want to have done it (though I don't believe that but I also don't think there is compelling evidence either way yet other than implausible difficulty for Ukraine having done it).
Basically, blowing this damn this early in the summer gives the opportunity for a attack over the Dnipro once the flood plains dries, and it will, and it prevents flooding from being an weapon against an offensive underway in that area. Now that the damn is blown it can't be blown again so a flood now can't be used to wash out an offensive or cut an even deeper succeeding offensive off from resupply.
The Sky News take it that Russia made a mistake blowing the damn too early....but if the reservoir was filled to enable them to use it to wash away an attack it would be pretty strategically savvy, albeit very cold-blooded, for Ukraine to take away that weapon.
The crazy thing about the Russians doing it, if they did, is that they not only flooded their own side more but also even on the Ukraine held side of the front the civilian population was quite likely to have a large number of pro-russian civilians. Ukrainian soldiers at the front have complained a lot about the problem of pro-russian civilians remaining behind, being a burden or even spying. But I guess it can be just another entry of the ledger of Russia's willingness to kill their own people for very little gain.
posted by srboisvert at 10:46 AM on June 8, 2023 [1 favorite]
Sky news just had segment that I saw on Youtube that indirectly could provide an explanation for why Ukraine might want to have done it (though I don't believe that but I also don't think there is compelling evidence either way yet other than implausible difficulty for Ukraine having done it).
Basically, blowing this damn this early in the summer gives the opportunity for a attack over the Dnipro once the flood plains dries, and it will, and it prevents flooding from being an weapon against an offensive underway in that area. Now that the damn is blown it can't be blown again so a flood now can't be used to wash out an offensive or cut an even deeper succeeding offensive off from resupply.
The Sky News take it that Russia made a mistake blowing the damn too early....but if the reservoir was filled to enable them to use it to wash away an attack it would be pretty strategically savvy, albeit very cold-blooded, for Ukraine to take away that weapon.
The crazy thing about the Russians doing it, if they did, is that they not only flooded their own side more but also even on the Ukraine held side of the front the civilian population was quite likely to have a large number of pro-russian civilians. Ukrainian soldiers at the front have complained a lot about the problem of pro-russian civilians remaining behind, being a burden or even spying. But I guess it can be just another entry of the ledger of Russia's willingness to kill their own people for very little gain.
posted by srboisvert at 10:46 AM on June 8, 2023 [1 favorite]
(I think that "Why?" was asking someone "Why do you insist on contriving..." not "Why would Ukraine possibly do it")
posted by nobody at 11:07 AM on June 8, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by nobody at 11:07 AM on June 8, 2023 [3 favorites]
Ukraine has consistently throughout the war valued their people and done their best to evacuate them from danger zones and otherwise preserve them. But even if you don't believe that, ponder it from the most cynical view: to demolish the dam, Ukraine would have to have custom-crafted a submarine bomb ala the dam-buster -- surely even the dimmest of people realize that the amount of missile or artillery hits it would take to demolish a dam from the air are impossible to do stealthily, we got a record of every time Ukraine hit the Dnipro bridges when they were shaping for the Kherson offensive -- and task a team to deploy it. And then be sure that none of the builders, operators, or all the people up the chain would be outraged or guilty enough after seeing the aftermath to leak about it. And unlike the passive Russian populace, Ukrainians will rise in fury when they believe their government has done wrong, to the point of *twice* overthrowing governments in the last 20 years.
I.e., even if you continue to pretend that the Ukrainian and Russian governments are the same morally, self-preservation would dictate that Ukraine not murder thousands of their own people for a modest tactical advantage. Even when in desperation they flooded the northern approaches to Kyiv during the first weeks, it was done with measured care to flood the low-lying fields but not the higher villages.
posted by tavella at 12:33 PM on June 8, 2023 [10 favorites]
I.e., even if you continue to pretend that the Ukrainian and Russian governments are the same morally, self-preservation would dictate that Ukraine not murder thousands of their own people for a modest tactical advantage. Even when in desperation they flooded the northern approaches to Kyiv during the first weeks, it was done with measured care to flood the low-lying fields but not the higher villages.
posted by tavella at 12:33 PM on June 8, 2023 [10 favorites]
Bakhmut has fallen - Österreichs Bundesheer
On day 465 of the war of aggression against Ukraine, Colonel Markus Reisner [Austrian Armed Forces] gives an overview of the operations of the Russian forces in recent months and the expected measures by the Ukrainian armed forces
posted by srboisvert at 4:38 PM on June 8, 2023
On day 465 of the war of aggression against Ukraine, Colonel Markus Reisner [Austrian Armed Forces] gives an overview of the operations of the Russian forces in recent months and the expected measures by the Ukrainian armed forces
posted by srboisvert at 4:38 PM on June 8, 2023
Girkin is questioning whether Putin is still with us.
I still have hopes the Girkin some day will be brought to justice, BTW, and I hope he'll keep a blog going while incarcerated so I can continue to read how miserable he is.
posted by Harald74 at 1:09 AM on June 9, 2023 [1 favorite]
I still have hopes the Girkin some day will be brought to justice, BTW, and I hope he'll keep a blog going while incarcerated so I can continue to read how miserable he is.
posted by Harald74 at 1:09 AM on June 9, 2023 [1 favorite]
And a little more light-hearted: A fish jumped into an open hatch of a Ukrainian BMP crossing a river.
posted by Harald74 at 1:23 AM on June 9, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 1:23 AM on June 9, 2023 [4 favorites]
Finland-based OSINT group Black Bird Group has a continuously updated map in Finnish and English showing developments in Ukraine. One of them, Pasi Paroinen, has been linked to in these threads, and another, John Helin, posted a good overview good overview of one of the recent offensive axes on Twitter.
posted by Kattullus at 3:37 AM on June 9, 2023
posted by Kattullus at 3:37 AM on June 9, 2023
Oops, I just realized I linked to the last tweet in Helin's thread about the Tokmak axis of attack, not the first.
posted by Kattullus at 6:58 AM on June 9, 2023
posted by Kattullus at 6:58 AM on June 9, 2023
The explosion evidence seems to be mounting. The NYTimes reports that US Spy Satellites picked up an explosion, Ukraine has release audio of an alleged intercepted phone call between Russian soldiers where it is claimed a sabotage unit was intending to cause a small incident at the dam to scare Ukraine but it got out of control. Norwegian seismologists have reported that their analysis of seismic data indicates an explosion. Malcontent News one of the more accurate pro Ukraine news podcasts has walked back their early dismissal of a report of a big explosion and has found social media posts and spoken with witnesses who report hearing an explosion.
Meanwhile Ryan McBeth has purchased a lot of imagery, interviewed engineers, geologists and others and posted a video today with evidence of an overtopping / erosion based failure.
It is possible that it is some combination of explosion and existing structural problems.
We won’t know more until evidence can be gathered and analyzed from the scene. Hopefully not all of it washed away or is in big enough chunks down river that engineers can reach s definitive conclusion.
posted by interogative mood at 9:08 AM on June 9, 2023
Meanwhile Ryan McBeth has purchased a lot of imagery, interviewed engineers, geologists and others and posted a video today with evidence of an overtopping / erosion based failure.
It is possible that it is some combination of explosion and existing structural problems.
We won’t know more until evidence can be gathered and analyzed from the scene. Hopefully not all of it washed away or is in big enough chunks down river that engineers can reach s definitive conclusion.
posted by interogative mood at 9:08 AM on June 9, 2023
I feel like one part of analysis that has been missing from the beginning of the full-scale war in Ukraine is how Ukraine must have foiled Russian covert ops in and before the start. These were crucial at the start of the earlier partial invasion where Russia made heavy use of bribery and russian-sympathizers. How did Ukraine foil it for the major invasion?
posted by srboisvert at 2:22 PM on June 9, 2023
posted by srboisvert at 2:22 PM on June 9, 2023
Oh, look, the Ukrainian counter offensive launched just north of the area affected by the dam breach, its right flank protected by that flooding.
Again, I think the Russians probably blew the dam, but there’s a plausible scenario where the Ukrainians did, and I’m not going to ignore that no matter how spun up people get.*
*shout to @stoneshop for being impressively lit up. Dude, it took 700 pounds of dynamite to take out a dam in eastern Washington, and you’re claiming that it would need nukes for this one? Take the blue pill.
posted by Galvanic at 2:37 PM on June 9, 2023
Again, I think the Russians probably blew the dam, but there’s a plausible scenario where the Ukrainians did, and I’m not going to ignore that no matter how spun up people get.*
*shout to @stoneshop for being impressively lit up. Dude, it took 700 pounds of dynamite to take out a dam in eastern Washington, and you’re claiming that it would need nukes for this one? Take the blue pill.
posted by Galvanic at 2:37 PM on June 9, 2023
The flank was already protected by a river that is over half a mile wide and the fact that Ukraine occupied the high ground. That is the dumbest thing I’ve read today.
The Russians blew up the previous dam in that spot during WW2.
Also the Condit Dam that was destroyed with 700 pounds of dynamite was much smaller. It was only 144 meters across and held back 1.6 million cubic meters of water. The Kakhovka Dam was 3272 meters wide (close to 2 miles) and held back 18.18 billion cubic meters of water. Furthermore Condit was destroyed by a professional demolition crew who had unrestricted access to the site and could use drills and other tools to place their charges in precise locations to destroy the reinforced concrete structure.
posted by interogative mood at 3:08 PM on June 9, 2023 [6 favorites]
The Russians blew up the previous dam in that spot during WW2.
Also the Condit Dam that was destroyed with 700 pounds of dynamite was much smaller. It was only 144 meters across and held back 1.6 million cubic meters of water. The Kakhovka Dam was 3272 meters wide (close to 2 miles) and held back 18.18 billion cubic meters of water. Furthermore Condit was destroyed by a professional demolition crew who had unrestricted access to the site and could use drills and other tools to place their charges in precise locations to destroy the reinforced concrete structure.
posted by interogative mood at 3:08 PM on June 9, 2023 [6 favorites]
Galvanic: Dude, it took 700 pounds of dynamite to take out a dam in eastern Washington, and you’re claiming that it would need nukes for this one?
First, you're mistaken that I claimed it would need a nuke; someone else noted it was built to withstand one. Second, as you know it was just 700 pounds it's clear it was a planned demolition, and that again suggests that those charges were optimally placed. Crashing your hypothetical drone vessel loaded with 5000 pounds into a pier of the Kakhova dam will have most of that blast dissipate into the air, wake up people for miles around and break windows across that area as well. Seems not to have happened.
You were wrong about the Kerch bridge; there's no reason to consider your analysis of this case to be any better.
posted by Stoneshop at 3:08 PM on June 9, 2023 [3 favorites]
First, you're mistaken that I claimed it would need a nuke; someone else noted it was built to withstand one. Second, as you know it was just 700 pounds it's clear it was a planned demolition, and that again suggests that those charges were optimally placed. Crashing your hypothetical drone vessel loaded with 5000 pounds into a pier of the Kakhova dam will have most of that blast dissipate into the air, wake up people for miles around and break windows across that area as well. Seems not to have happened.
You were wrong about the Kerch bridge; there's no reason to consider your analysis of this case to be any better.
posted by Stoneshop at 3:08 PM on June 9, 2023 [3 favorites]
I'm pretty sure that dam in E Washington was taken out with carefully placed charges following a lot of study. And wasn't a hydroelectric dam holding back nearly the amount of water this dam was containing.
Maybe a tiny amount of explosives inside this dam could have taken it out. But the Ukrainians didn't have access to the interior of this dam.
There were some reports of some damage to the dam early in the war, which sparked the first round of discussion of how bad it would be if it were breached. Its possible that damage led to this now collapse. Who caused that early damage is pretty certainly the Russians.
posted by hippybear at 3:11 PM on June 9, 2023 [2 favorites]
Maybe a tiny amount of explosives inside this dam could have taken it out. But the Ukrainians didn't have access to the interior of this dam.
There were some reports of some damage to the dam early in the war, which sparked the first round of discussion of how bad it would be if it were breached. Its possible that damage led to this now collapse. Who caused that early damage is pretty certainly the Russians.
posted by hippybear at 3:11 PM on June 9, 2023 [2 favorites]
The flank was already protected by a river that is over half a mile wide and the fact that Ukraine occupied the high ground. That is the dumbest thing I’ve read today.
Learn to read a map.
On the dam, wait, you mean it was holding back way more weight of water pushing against it so that means…that it was less vulnerable to fracturing? Uh huh.
posted by Galvanic at 3:26 PM on June 9, 2023
Learn to read a map.
On the dam, wait, you mean it was holding back way more weight of water pushing against it so that means…that it was less vulnerable to fracturing? Uh huh.
posted by Galvanic at 3:26 PM on June 9, 2023
Weight (volume) is not what matters for the forces working on a dam, hydrostatic pressure is.
The volume of water behind a dam just determines how long it would take for the reservoir to be emptied.
posted by Stoneshop at 3:40 PM on June 9, 2023 [1 favorite]
The volume of water behind a dam just determines how long it would take for the reservoir to be emptied.
posted by Stoneshop at 3:40 PM on June 9, 2023 [1 favorite]
I think you are failing to appreciate the scale of this dam and all the extra calculations involved when you scale up from the relatively small Condit to the massive Kakhovka dam.
Furthermore the idea that Russia was going to conduct an amphibious assault is absurd. Apmohibious assaults are extremely complicated and high risk. The few times during this war when Russia has tried to conduct these kind of operations over much smaller rivers it has been a total disaster.
Look at the terrain map. The elevation favors the areas Ukraine controls. Look at the recent events — Ukraine has conducted raids over the river several times in the past few months, not the Russians. Look at history Russia blew up a similar dam in WW2.
posted by interogative mood at 4:28 PM on June 9, 2023 [1 favorite]
Furthermore the idea that Russia was going to conduct an amphibious assault is absurd. Apmohibious assaults are extremely complicated and high risk. The few times during this war when Russia has tried to conduct these kind of operations over much smaller rivers it has been a total disaster.
Look at the terrain map. The elevation favors the areas Ukraine controls. Look at the recent events — Ukraine has conducted raids over the river several times in the past few months, not the Russians. Look at history Russia blew up a similar dam in WW2.
posted by interogative mood at 4:28 PM on June 9, 2023 [1 favorite]
Look at history Russia blew up a similar dam in WW2.
Also in the "look at (recent) history" category: look at who has been consistently and repeatedly committing war crimes. Hint: it isn't the Ukrainians.
posted by Dip Flash at 4:33 PM on June 9, 2023
Also in the "look at (recent) history" category: look at who has been consistently and repeatedly committing war crimes. Hint: it isn't the Ukrainians.
posted by Dip Flash at 4:33 PM on June 9, 2023
The Condit Dam demolition is not even remotely comparable:
“ PacifiCorp's decommissioning plan differed from FERC's decommissioning proposal in how the sediment behind the dam is treated. FERC's plan was to dredge or bypass the sediment while PacifiCorp's plan used the demolition of the dam to quickly flush as much sediment as possible, thereby minimizing the amount of time the sediment plume harmed downstream aquatic life.
Breaching the dam involved cutting a 12 x 18 x 100-foot (30 m) tunnel in its base; the final 15 feet (4.6 m) was drilled and blasted. A dredge removed woody sediment from the dam's inside face, and when breached, the reservoir was expected to drain within six hours, but actually drained much faster, in only about 30 minutes. The rest of the dam was cut into blocks and removed for disposal or recycling on-site. As of the date of demolition, Condit dam was the largest dam ever removed for environmental reasons and the largest dam ever removed in the United States.”
posted by fimbulvetr at 5:11 PM on June 9, 2023 [1 favorite]
“ PacifiCorp's decommissioning plan differed from FERC's decommissioning proposal in how the sediment behind the dam is treated. FERC's plan was to dredge or bypass the sediment while PacifiCorp's plan used the demolition of the dam to quickly flush as much sediment as possible, thereby minimizing the amount of time the sediment plume harmed downstream aquatic life.
Breaching the dam involved cutting a 12 x 18 x 100-foot (30 m) tunnel in its base; the final 15 feet (4.6 m) was drilled and blasted. A dredge removed woody sediment from the dam's inside face, and when breached, the reservoir was expected to drain within six hours, but actually drained much faster, in only about 30 minutes. The rest of the dam was cut into blocks and removed for disposal or recycling on-site. As of the date of demolition, Condit dam was the largest dam ever removed for environmental reasons and the largest dam ever removed in the United States.”
posted by fimbulvetr at 5:11 PM on June 9, 2023 [1 favorite]
Take the blue pill.
Feelings of self-superiority and self-importance are the worst way of understanding anything. Maybe reconsider?
posted by Pyrogenesis at 5:38 PM on June 9, 2023 [8 favorites]
Feelings of self-superiority and self-importance are the worst way of understanding anything. Maybe reconsider?
posted by Pyrogenesis at 5:38 PM on June 9, 2023 [8 favorites]
Gen (ret) Mick Ryan with some thoughts on the unfolding offensive.
posted by Harald74 at 12:11 AM on June 10, 2023
posted by Harald74 at 12:11 AM on June 10, 2023
A Ukrainian drone capturing and retrieving two Russian drones.
posted by Harald74 at 12:18 AM on June 10, 2023
posted by Harald74 at 12:18 AM on June 10, 2023
Odd story out of Aotearoa, specifically the public broadcaster Radio New Zealand. Here’s a report from the New Zealand Herald. RNZ Russia-friendly edits: staffer stood down as 15 stories ‘inappropriately’ give pro-Kremlin slants. Excerpt:
posted by Kattullus at 2:09 AM on June 10, 2023 [3 favorites]
At least 15 stories published on RNZ about the war in Ukraine have been “innapropriately” edited to take a pro-Russian slant, leading to an employee being placed on leave subject to investigation.Stuff has a more in-depth report, and Radio New Zealand’s story has links to all the affected news reports.
RNZ announced last night the staff member had been placed on leave after it was discovered on Thursday a story by international wire agency Reuters had been republished on RNZ.co.nz with Kremlin-friendly language.
Since then an audit had revealed 14 other altered articles, the media review programme Mediawatch NZ tweeted tonight.
“RNZ has found 15 (not 14) instances of ‘inappropriate editing’ so far of wire service stories on Ukraine war,” Mediawatch tweeted.
posted by Kattullus at 2:09 AM on June 10, 2023 [3 favorites]
A news organization taking steps against untruths on its platforms? I never heard of such a thing!
posted by hippybear at 4:38 AM on June 10, 2023
posted by hippybear at 4:38 AM on June 10, 2023
Odd story out of Aotearoa, specifically the public broadcaster Radio New Zealand. Here’s a report from the New Zealand Herald. RNZ Russia-friendly edits: staffer stood down as 15 stories ‘inappropriately’ give pro-Kremlin slants.
Even odder that news agencies are protecting the identity of the person who did this. IT'S NEWS!
posted by srboisvert at 4:45 AM on June 10, 2023 [1 favorite]
Even odder that news agencies are protecting the identity of the person who did this. IT'S NEWS!
posted by srboisvert at 4:45 AM on June 10, 2023 [1 favorite]
Ukraine sends western tanks into battle as counter-offensive gets under way Financial Times.
posted by srboisvert at 5:56 AM on June 10, 2023 [10 favorites]
Ukrainian military officials repeatedly stated there would be no grandiose announcement of the start of the counter-offensive, with defence and top military brass urging the public to remain silent about what they might see or hear regarding the operation.I have strange feels about GenX representation in Europe's largest land war since WWII.
“There will be no announcement about the beginning,” said Oleksii Reznikov, Ukraine’s defence minister, on Sunday. “Words are very unnecessary. They can only do harm,” he added, quoting a song by the band Depeche Mode.
posted by srboisvert at 5:56 AM on June 10, 2023 [10 favorites]
One of the journos should have asked Reznikov whether that places a limit on the policy of truth.
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:14 AM on June 10, 2023 [7 favorites]
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:14 AM on June 10, 2023 [7 favorites]
Loose lips sink ships
Loose tweets sink fleets.
posted by Too-Ticky at 10:20 AM on June 10, 2023 [2 favorites]
Loose tweets sink fleets.
posted by Too-Ticky at 10:20 AM on June 10, 2023 [2 favorites]
Earlier today Zelenskyy confirmed that the offensive has started, though that seems more in response to Putin’s claim yesterday than anything particularly newsworthy in and of itself.
posted by Kattullus at 1:52 PM on June 10, 2023
posted by Kattullus at 1:52 PM on June 10, 2023
Zelensky also replied to a Greta Thunberg tweet two days ago. The counteroffensive really is attacking on a very broad front!
@GretaThunberg:
This ecocide as a continuation of Russias unprovoked full-scale invasion of Ukraine is yet another atrocity which leaves the world lost for words. Our eyes are once again on Russia who must be held accountable for their crimes.
@ZelenskyyUa
Thank you for your position and for upholding the truth
@GretaThunberg!
🇷🇺 must be held accountable for all its evil against people, life and nature!
posted by srboisvert at 2:41 PM on June 10, 2023 [4 favorites]
@GretaThunberg:
This ecocide as a continuation of Russias unprovoked full-scale invasion of Ukraine is yet another atrocity which leaves the world lost for words. Our eyes are once again on Russia who must be held accountable for their crimes.
@ZelenskyyUa
Thank you for your position and for upholding the truth
@GretaThunberg!
🇷🇺 must be held accountable for all its evil against people, life and nature!
posted by srboisvert at 2:41 PM on June 10, 2023 [4 favorites]
Peter Pomerantsev in the Guardian:
Beneath the veneer of Russian military “tactics”, you see the stupid leer of destruction for the sake of it. The Kremlin can’t create, so all that is left is to destroy. Not in some pseudo-glorious self-immolation, the people behind atrocities are petty cowards, but more like a loser smearing their faeces over life. In Russia’s wars the very senselessness seems to be the sense.posted by Kabanos at 5:24 AM on June 11, 2023 [2 favorites]
It seems like Blahodatne, Neskutchne and Makarivka, villages in Donetsk oblast, near to the border with Zaporizhzia oblast, have been captured by Ukrainian forces. There has been lots of speculation about this online, and it’s been confirmed by Ukrainian officials. This is the first unabashedly good news of the offensive.
posted by Kattullus at 11:46 AM on June 11, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by Kattullus at 11:46 AM on June 11, 2023 [1 favorite]
Some ISW shade in the initial update following the counteroffensive:
Russian nationalists are widely celebrating the 58th Combined Arms Army (Southern Military District), despite Russian forces only executing basic defensive operations that should not be so unusual as to deserve wide praise.The following update is a lot more sober, mentioning the extreme difficulty in attacking prepared defensive positions and the Russian advantage in electronic warfare:
Russian forces in Zaporizhia Oblast are continuing to defend against Ukrainian attacks in accord with sound tactical defensive doctrine.posted by meowzilla at 12:03 PM on June 11, 2023 [2 favorites]
It's obviously too soon to tell whether or not Ukraine will achieve a breakthrough in the upcoming weeks and months, but the fact that its a slow agonizing grind right now in the face of prepared Russian defenses is a direct result of a year of foot dragging by the collective West. We should have been rushing tanks and APCs along with the HIMARS, and we should be committing to continuing supply of them in large numbers now, regardless of the outcome of the current offensive.
posted by Reverend John at 12:55 PM on June 11, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by Reverend John at 12:55 PM on June 11, 2023 [2 favorites]
The weird sideshow that is internecine squabbling between the Russian army and Wagner seems to be moving to another level. Here’s a report from the BBC, Russia moves to take direct control of Wagner Group. Excerpt:
Russia appears to have moved to take direct control of Wagner, after months of infighting between defence officials and the private military group.posted by Kattullus at 2:57 PM on June 11, 2023
Deputy Defence Minister Nikolai Pankov said on Saturday "volunteer formations" will be asked to sign contracts directly with the ministry of defence.
The vaguely worded statement is widely believed to target the group.
But in a furious statement on Sunday, Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin said his forces would boycott the contracts.
The private military group has played a major role in the war in Ukraine, fighting on the side of Russian forces.
But Prigozhin, who is said to hold political ambitions of his own, has been embroiled in a public dispute with Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and military chief Valery Gerasimov for months.
He has repeatedly accused the pair of incompetence and of deliberately undersupplying Wagner units fighting in Ukraine.
"Wagner will not sign any contracts with Shoigu," Prigozhin said in response to a request for comment on the defence ministry's announcement. "Shoigu cannot properly manage military formation."
He insisted that his group was well integrated with the Russian military, but said that its effectiveness would be damaged by having to report to the defence minister.
It's not "Russia" as such making that move, I feel, it's the Russian MoD under Shoigu. It's very strange all of it. And Prigozhin is stalling, while Girkin calls that stalling a mutiny.
posted by Harald74 at 12:47 AM on June 12, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by Harald74 at 12:47 AM on June 12, 2023 [1 favorite]
Mounting evidence that the dam was demolished by Russian sabotage, except that it took out the entire dam instead of just sending a warning to Ukraine.
SBU: In intercepted phone call, Russian soldier confirms Russia destroyed Kakhovka dam.
In one of the intercepted calls a soldier remarks that they were alerted, but were told the water wouldn't rise to where they were. "So we didn't pack our stuff. And then, when it came worse - we started the rescue mission"
posted by Stoneshop at 1:17 AM on June 12, 2023
SBU: In intercepted phone call, Russian soldier confirms Russia destroyed Kakhovka dam.
In one of the intercepted calls a soldier remarks that they were alerted, but were told the water wouldn't rise to where they were. "So we didn't pack our stuff. And then, when it came worse - we started the rescue mission"
posted by Stoneshop at 1:17 AM on June 12, 2023
Recent reporting is that Russia blew up a second, smaller dam in the Donetsk area as an area denial tactic. From the Kyiv Independent's story:
Valeriy Shershen, spokesperson for Ukraine’s Tavria military sector, said in a comment to Ukrainska Pravda news outlet on June 11 that the Russian military had blown up a dam on the Mokri Yaly River in the Donetsk Oblast, causing flooding on both banks.posted by snuffleupagus at 8:21 AM on June 12, 2023
According to Shershen, this was done in an attempt to “slow down Ukraine's counteroffensive.
However, "this does not affect" the ongoing Ukrainian offensive operations in the sector, Shershen added.
“At first, the occupiers blew up the Karlov (water) reservoir, then the Kakhovka dam, then they blew up other hydraulic structures in the occupied part of the Zaporizhzhia Oblast,” he said. “They expect a breakthrough of our defense forces, therefore, in order to slow down our advance, they use this tactic.”
Similar to Wagner's problems with running into Russian army mines the Ukrainian offensive has to make it is way through Ukrainian minefields - WaPo Archived
posted by srboisvert at 3:25 PM on June 12, 2023
posted by srboisvert at 3:25 PM on June 12, 2023
Similar except in that, I assume, there are no high-profile Ukrainian military people who are claiming that Ukraine intentionally put the mines there to kill Ukrainian troops.
posted by Flunkie at 3:55 PM on June 12, 2023
posted by Flunkie at 3:55 PM on June 12, 2023
Whoever's got that counter of Russian generals killed, they should move it by one. Or does a Chief of Staff of a whole field army and Major General count double?
posted by I claim sanctuary at 3:26 AM on June 13, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by I claim sanctuary at 3:26 AM on June 13, 2023 [3 favorites]
And in the meantime those Pesky Partisans keep sabotaging train traffic, now more often by derailing and not just by setting switchboxes on fire. In Belgorod Oblast: one in Alekseevsky [1] and another near Stary Oskol [2]. Track damage from an attack in Crimea earlier has been fixed.
posted by Stoneshop at 4:53 AM on June 13, 2023 [2 favorites]
[1] 15 freight cars derailed in Belgorod region(none of the attacks has been reported as a missile strike, hence attributed to partisan action)
"An emergency in the Alekseevsky urban district. Near the railway station, 15 locomotive freight cars derailed. According to preliminary data, there are no casualties," said Vyacheslav Gladkov, head of the region.
@interfaxonline
[2] According to Baza, explosive devices planted on the tracks were the cause of the derailment in the Belgorod Region. They were placed in two places 20 metres from each other.
Information about drones was reported to the special services by the train driver, but this version has not been confirmed, the Telegram channel writes.
posted by Stoneshop at 4:53 AM on June 13, 2023 [2 favorites]
Just one sad consequence (of many) for cultural heritage because of the dam destruction (Guardian story).
posted by gudrun at 6:23 AM on June 13, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by gudrun at 6:23 AM on June 13, 2023 [1 favorite]
An expert explains why Ukraine’s counteroffensive just might work
Seth Jones, director of the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, recently toured Finland, Poland, the Baltic States, and met with senior Ukrainian defense officials in Europe, to gauge the prospects for Ukraine’s effort, publishing his conclusions in a report CSIS published last week.posted by srboisvert at 12:40 PM on June 13, 2023
Jones told Semafor in an interview on Monday that he entered his study “pretty gloomy” about Ukraine’s hopes for regaining significant amounts of territory. But after analyzing the Ukrainian battlefield, and consulting military historians who’ve tracked previous battles involving entrenched positions like Russia has constructed, he came away thinking “it is possible” Kyiv can make real gains.
'I had never considered that Ukraine might employ combined arms and maneuver spearheaded by armor to overcome a shallow fixed defense in exactly the way called for by the last hundred years of military history, without access to all the bafflegab warfighter capabilties in the most recent gazillion dollar procurement powerpoint I saw. It's so crazy it might just work!'
posted by snuffleupagus at 3:15 PM on June 13, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by snuffleupagus at 3:15 PM on June 13, 2023 [4 favorites]
‘Not a Hollywood movie.’ Russia mounts strong fightback to Ukraine counteroffensive: In occupied Ukraine, gains are measured in meters.
posted by srboisvert at 5:57 PM on June 13, 2023
posted by srboisvert at 5:57 PM on June 13, 2023
How many meters is six feet under?
No need for martial law in Russia, says Putin; senior Russian general killed in Zaporizhzhia, says Moscow – as it happened [guadian]
“There is no reason to introduce some kind of special regime or martial law in the country,” Putin told a televised meeting of Russian war correspondents and military bloggers. “There is no need for such a thing today.”
Check back tomorrow, though.
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:12 PM on June 13, 2023 [1 favorite]
No need for martial law in Russia, says Putin; senior Russian general killed in Zaporizhzhia, says Moscow – as it happened [guadian]
“There is no reason to introduce some kind of special regime or martial law in the country,” Putin told a televised meeting of Russian war correspondents and military bloggers. “There is no need for such a thing today.”
Check back tomorrow, though.
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:12 PM on June 13, 2023 [1 favorite]
How many meters is six feet under?
Two. It's two meters.
posted by hippybear at 8:53 PM on June 13, 2023 [2 favorites]
Two. It's two meters.
posted by hippybear at 8:53 PM on June 13, 2023 [2 favorites]
1.82 of them meters, give or take.
posted by porpoise at 10:35 PM on June 13, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by porpoise at 10:35 PM on June 13, 2023 [2 favorites]
“There is no reason to introduce some kind of special regime or martial law in the country,” Putin already has a dictatorship. I mean, he's right I guess?
posted by UN at 12:06 AM on June 14, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by UN at 12:06 AM on June 14, 2023 [1 favorite]
Putin likes to have a veneer of legitimacy over his dictatorial behaviour.
posted by Stoneshop at 3:33 PM on June 14, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by Stoneshop at 3:33 PM on June 14, 2023 [2 favorites]
Next time you are waiting for the boss to join the zoom meeting, consider the battalion sized (300) group of Russian soldiers who were standing around in the open for hours waiting for their commanding officer to show up and give a speech. According to Rybar and TheGreyZone Russian telegram channels the solders were spotted by Ukrainian drones and hit with a HIMARS strike. More than 100 were killed outright and about as many severely injured out of the 300 or so present.
posted by interogative mood at 6:55 PM on June 14, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by interogative mood at 6:55 PM on June 14, 2023 [1 favorite]
War is horrible and awful, but it's made more horrible and awful by stupid decisions like that.
posted by hippybear at 7:10 PM on June 14, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by hippybear at 7:10 PM on June 14, 2023 [4 favorites]
Disagree, the (second) best outcome would be if ALL the RU forces bunched up at easily killable locations.
The best option would be mass surrender.
posted by Meatbomb at 10:42 PM on June 14, 2023 [5 favorites]
The best option would be mass surrender.
posted by Meatbomb at 10:42 PM on June 14, 2023 [5 favorites]
Here is a WSJ video report about the Russian soldier who surrendered to a Ukrainan drone a short while ago. (CW: Dead bodies here and there seen from drone perspective)
posted by Harald74 at 12:40 AM on June 15, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by Harald74 at 12:40 AM on June 15, 2023 [1 favorite]
That is a harrowing watch Harald74, and a bright reminder of common humanity despite this horrible war. I really hope Ruslan lives a long life.
posted by unearthed at 2:07 AM on June 15, 2023
posted by unearthed at 2:07 AM on June 15, 2023
Lots of equipment has been getting battle-tested, and in Finnish media there has been a focus on the Pasi armored personnel carrier. Here’s an English language summary by YLE News:
posted by Kattullus at 3:52 PM on June 15, 2023 [7 favorites]
Tabloid Iltalehti covered posts circulating on social media that a Finnish Sisu XA-180 armoured personnel carrier donated to Ukraine managed to survive three mine explosions, during Ukraine's counterattack in Russian-occupied territories with the help of Western military equipment.Here’s a tweet translating the Ukrainian army’s statement.
According to the reports, crew inside the carrier that was hit were 'contused', but survived the ordeal.
According to Olli Dahl, a retired lieutenant colonel of the Armoured Brigade, it is very possible that the claim is true.
"The Pasi has been a world-famous vehicle. It is one of the best 6x6 vehicles in terms of its height, powertrain and bottom armour, all optimised specifically to withstand the pressure of a mine explosion," Dahl explained.
Former intelligence chief of the Defence Forces and current MP, Major General Pekka Toveri also commented on the claim on Twitter.
"Mine resistance was also tested in Afghanistan, but not with three mines," he wrote.
posted by Kattullus at 3:52 PM on June 15, 2023 [7 favorites]
Lack of US short range air defense equipment (not just donated; the US just doesn't have any) is causing problems for Ukraine: Ukraine’s Armor Appears To Have A Russian Attack Helicopter Problem. Hoping other allied countries can fill the void.
posted by meowzilla at 10:59 AM on June 16, 2023
posted by meowzilla at 10:59 AM on June 16, 2023
Russia is getting nervous about Sevastopol. They doubled their Dolphin mobik defense force.
posted by srboisvert at 2:49 PM on June 16, 2023
posted by srboisvert at 2:49 PM on June 16, 2023
Russia’s president claimed that Ukraine would soon be out of home-manufactured hardware and that he remained focused on his aim of “denazifying” Ukraine, adding, in a bizarre aside, that the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, was “not a real Jew”.Not entirely surprised to see him openly blame Jews for his failings.
“I have a lot of Jewish friends,” Putin told an annual economic forum in St Petersburg. “They say that Zelenskiy is not Jewish, that he is a disgrace to the Jewish people. I’m not joking.”
posted by UN at 12:27 AM on June 17, 2023 [1 favorite]
UN: Russia’s president claimed that Ukraine would soon be out of home-manufactured hardware
UkrBoronProm and UkrJet audibly rising their eyebrows.
Also, there's all kinds of Russian stuff left on the battlefield in good enough condition to be reused. Ukraine thanks you for that.
posted by Stoneshop at 12:54 AM on June 17, 2023 [1 favorite]
UkrBoronProm and UkrJet audibly rising their eyebrows.
Also, there's all kinds of Russian stuff left on the battlefield in good enough condition to be reused. Ukraine thanks you for that.
posted by Stoneshop at 12:54 AM on June 17, 2023 [1 favorite]
FP.com How Not to Help Ukraine: A muddled U.S. strategy is making it harder for Kyiv to win.
By Raphael S. Cohen
By Raphael S. Cohen
Some degree of U.S. foot-dragging during the first few weeks of the war was, perhaps, understandable—back then, policymakers were still figuring out how the Ukrainians would fight. But slow-rolling deliveries has become less defensible the longer the conflict has gone on. Many of the initial, operational reasons for withholding certain weapons—like the idea that Ukrainian forces couldn’t be trained quickly enough on those systems—have been repeatedly disproved. Ukraine has shown that it can both rapidly master complex systems, like Patriot missiles, and also use them to great effect.posted by srboisvert at 5:03 AM on June 17, 2023 [4 favorites]
The preoccupation with escalation—another common line deployed when refusing weapons—is even more flawed. For starters, the idea that withholding weapons will somehow limit escalation and keep the war more contained and less deadly is questionable. True, Russia has not used nuclear weapons, but there are plenty of reasons Russia would not want to resort to them. And Western restraint has produced little Russian response in kind. Russia still tried to freeze, and then flood, Ukrainian civilians into submission; it has also engaged in widespread torture and shown no willingness to negotiate about anything other than Ukraine’s capitulation.
That article basically says it all. Especially the conclusion. "Ukraine will survive as an independent state". Barring an unexpected total Ukrainian collapse, I think Russia is done gaining any significant ground in this war. The best they can hope for is to hold the ground they've already taken. Now the only question is (or should be) what do the Ukrainians need to gain back as much of their stolen land as possible and then defend themselves going forward, and how fast can we provide it?
The challenge was foreseeable a year or more ago: Ukraine will survive as an independent state, continue to face a long-term threat from Russia, and run out of Soviet-era equipment—be it air defenses, tanks, or planes. Had the West acted more decisively and strategically, Ukraine would not only be in a better shape to undertake the counteroffensive it recently launched in southern and eastern Ukraine, but also be better-positioned for a more durable postwar settlement.posted by Reverend John at 9:23 AM on June 17, 2023 [1 favorite]
Thankfully, Ukrainian bravery and Russian missteps mean that the war remains winnable for Kyiv. The United States just needs the will and strategy to embrace that victory.
Here is a WSJ video report yt about the Russian soldier who surrendered to a Ukrainan drone a short while ago. (CW: Dead bodies here and there seen from drone perspective)
I'd seen edited clips of this before but that was a gut punch. Seeing that kid's desperation on his face and then begging for his life was brutal. Plus it really shows the power of the Russian info bubble - he had no idea how he was going to be treated if he tried to surrender. And the poor sod saying he wanted to be part of a prisoner exchange where he would possibly end up being treated as a deserter or possibly sent right back to the front...yeesh. It makes me wonder if he is worried about possible repercussions for his family in Russia.
posted by srboisvert at 9:35 AM on June 17, 2023 [1 favorite]
I'd seen edited clips of this before but that was a gut punch. Seeing that kid's desperation on his face and then begging for his life was brutal. Plus it really shows the power of the Russian info bubble - he had no idea how he was going to be treated if he tried to surrender. And the poor sod saying he wanted to be part of a prisoner exchange where he would possibly end up being treated as a deserter or possibly sent right back to the front...yeesh. It makes me wonder if he is worried about possible repercussions for his family in Russia.
posted by srboisvert at 9:35 AM on June 17, 2023 [1 favorite]
War, shoot, so hard to think about. Seem more about the ability of one side's ability to ramp up industrial output and have the bucks in the bank or the credit rating to pay for the materials.
I saw something that concerned, some question about the supplies of short range surface to air missiles which is allowing russian attack helicopters to function in the southern region.
Am Hoping for a dramatic panic rout of the russians at some point.
posted by sammyo at 10:00 AM on June 17, 2023
I saw something that concerned, some question about the supplies of short range surface to air missiles which is allowing russian attack helicopters to function in the southern region.
Am Hoping for a dramatic panic rout of the russians at some point.
posted by sammyo at 10:00 AM on June 17, 2023
Ukraine’s Armor Appears To Have A Russian Attack Helicopter Problem. Hoping other allied countries can fill the void.
Ironically, the US does have a lot of surplus attack helicopters stored. 100 SuperCobras and another 30 Vipers (as in AH-1Z).
Though I doubt anyone is interested in pursuing air to air helicopter engagements purposefully; and as far as I know Ukraine has not asked for them. Training helicopter pilots is hard; and they're easy to lose even doing everything right.
I wonder if, as a stopgap, you could defend against attack helicopters using light attack aircraft behind the front lines; even if each can only carry one or two AAMs, targeted by datalink. One of the models used for anti-insurgency, or the recent dual purpose trainers.
posted by snuffleupagus at 11:11 AM on June 17, 2023 [3 favorites]
Ironically, the US does have a lot of surplus attack helicopters stored. 100 SuperCobras and another 30 Vipers (as in AH-1Z).
Though I doubt anyone is interested in pursuing air to air helicopter engagements purposefully; and as far as I know Ukraine has not asked for them. Training helicopter pilots is hard; and they're easy to lose even doing everything right.
I wonder if, as a stopgap, you could defend against attack helicopters using light attack aircraft behind the front lines; even if each can only carry one or two AAMs, targeted by datalink. One of the models used for anti-insurgency, or the recent dual purpose trainers.
posted by snuffleupagus at 11:11 AM on June 17, 2023 [3 favorites]
Russian media is showing signs of preparing the public for a goodwill gesture. Lots of talk of how they’ve succeeded in making it impossible for Ukraine to threaten Russia. They might pull back to their pre-Feb 2022 lines and demand a ceasefire. I don’t know what the allied reaction would be. I hope it is that Russia needs to leave all of Ukraine but who knows.
posted by interogative mood at 3:24 PM on June 17, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by interogative mood at 3:24 PM on June 17, 2023 [1 favorite]
Laptops for Ukraine initiative extended to help museums and libraries safeguard cultural heritage.
posted by gudrun at 7:20 PM on June 17, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by gudrun at 7:20 PM on June 17, 2023 [2 favorites]
The NY Times has published an extensively-illustrated article about how the preponderance of the evidence shows that the destruction of the dam was an inside job by the Russians. ("Inside job" as in explosives were placed in the deep inside of the dam; access to that passageway having been controlled by the Russians for many months.)
posted by Dip Flash at 6:14 AM on June 18, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by Dip Flash at 6:14 AM on June 18, 2023 [2 favorites]
Yeah, I really wish they hadn't chosen that term for their headline. I got a very misleading impression when I first saw it hours ago and it's not like most people who see a front page will go on to read the article and learn that the term is being used in a sense very different from its normal meaning. (I notice that the headline on the front page now says "Russian Inside Job" instead of just "Inside Job", which is something. But this isn't a great topic to mess around with cute wordplay on in the first place.)
posted by trig at 7:25 AM on June 18, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by trig at 7:25 AM on June 18, 2023 [3 favorites]
The NYT headline is:
Why the Evidence Suggests Russia Blew Up the Kakhovka Dam
A dam in Ukraine was designed to withstand almost any attack imaginable — from the outside. The evidence suggests Russia blew it up from within.
Did they change it, or is there something I am missing?
posted by Jane the Brown at 9:47 AM on June 18, 2023
Why the Evidence Suggests Russia Blew Up the Kakhovka Dam
A dam in Ukraine was designed to withstand almost any attack imaginable — from the outside. The evidence suggests Russia blew it up from within.
Did they change it, or is there something I am missing?
posted by Jane the Brown at 9:47 AM on June 18, 2023
The original headline, as captured by the Internet Archive, was “An Inside Job”. I don’t know what the headline is in the printed paper.
posted by Kattullus at 10:59 AM on June 18, 2023
posted by Kattullus at 10:59 AM on June 18, 2023
We are currently witnessing an unfolding revolution in global security that Western policy makers are clearly unprepared for — the impending collapse of the Russian Federation.The benefits of Russia’s coming disintegration
Instead of planning contingencies for external spillovers and capitalizing on Russia’s de-imperialization, however, Western officials appear to be stuck in a bygone era, believing they can return to the post-Cold War status quo, with some even offering Moscow security guarantees to keep the country intact.
I'm not convinced by the opinion piece - it's Macron's wishful thinking that things go back to 'normal' with Putin versus wishful thinking that the Russian Federation will collapse [personally, I think it will happen, but that's being wishfully optimistic ]. Every step of this war and the wars prior have shown: the love, admiration and fear of the Russian dictator is fierce — even (especially?) in the areas that 'logically' should free themselves from Russian imperialism. We're going to be stuck with a giant North Korea on our borders in Europe and Asia possibly for decades to come. Russia's geography will allow it to smuggle just enough luxury goods to placate its elites. And the poor?
All those stolen washing machines from Ukraine are symbolic of the future failed state Russian Federation not being so different from current failed state Russian Federation.
Same same, but different.
posted by UN at 12:59 AM on June 19, 2023 [2 favorites]
Twitter, my main platform for keeping up with the war, is today overrun with clowns thinking that increased movement of US military equipment and personnel inside the US is unprecedented and the first harbinger of a New World Order, not at all the regular old start of summer exercises for National Guard and reserve units.
posted by Harald74 at 1:17 AM on June 19, 2023 [6 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 1:17 AM on June 19, 2023 [6 favorites]
Twitter, my main platform for keeping up with the war, is today overrun with clowns thinking
On Twitter that last word doesn't carry the commonly accepted meaning.
posted by Stoneshop at 2:14 AM on June 19, 2023 [1 favorite]
On Twitter that last word doesn't carry the commonly accepted meaning.
posted by Stoneshop at 2:14 AM on June 19, 2023 [1 favorite]
The increasingly transparent bots are recycling time-tested content; recall the Jade Helm 15 conspiracy theories. From the linked wikipedia article:
...[T]he Hartford Courant wrote that the conspiracy theories included: a "psychological operation aimed at getting people used to seeing military forces on the streets" so that they do not realize when an invasion actually takes place; an international operation aimed to seize people's guns; recently closed Walmarts used by the military to "stockpile supplies for Chinese troops who will be arriving to disarm Americans"; and a military plan to "round up political dissidents" and "remove key political figures" who may be against the imposition of martial law. Other theories have described Jade Helm 15 as a "secret plot" to impose martial law, confiscate firearms, invade Texas, and institute "total population control."posted by snuffleupagus at 8:10 AM on June 19, 2023
Gazprom spent a buttload of money to erect three giant flag poles flying the flags of modern Russia, the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union. A WTF moment to be sure.
posted by Harald74 at 12:15 AM on June 20, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 12:15 AM on June 20, 2023 [2 favorites]
Gazprom spent a buttload of money to erect three giant flag poles flying the flags of modern Russia, the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union. A WTF moment to be sure.
Masks off. Soviet socialism and brotherhood? Nah, it was all about the Russian Empire the whole time.
Check out this 1420 video, Danil gets quite a bit more "gotcha" confrontational than usual when polling Russians about the 1940 occupation of the Baltic States.
My wife is a happily colonised Tajik who hates what her "homeland" is becoming. Her grandmother was a Crimean Tatar exiled to Central Asia, and her grandfather an abusive monster who had a shrine to Stalin way into the 1980s.
People in this part of the world are generally wistful about the USSR, those who aren't are ignorant and petty nationalists and Islamists. Women's rights are falling off a cliff, and by all measures the nation is falling in development ratings on all fronts.
Did the Baltics and Ukraine "do it right" just because they are on my team? This shit is really hard to muddle through for me.
posted by Meatbomb at 1:18 AM on June 20, 2023 [8 favorites]
Masks off. Soviet socialism and brotherhood? Nah, it was all about the Russian Empire the whole time.
Check out this 1420 video, Danil gets quite a bit more "gotcha" confrontational than usual when polling Russians about the 1940 occupation of the Baltic States.
My wife is a happily colonised Tajik who hates what her "homeland" is becoming. Her grandmother was a Crimean Tatar exiled to Central Asia, and her grandfather an abusive monster who had a shrine to Stalin way into the 1980s.
People in this part of the world are generally wistful about the USSR, those who aren't are ignorant and petty nationalists and Islamists. Women's rights are falling off a cliff, and by all measures the nation is falling in development ratings on all fronts.
Did the Baltics and Ukraine "do it right" just because they are on my team? This shit is really hard to muddle through for me.
posted by Meatbomb at 1:18 AM on June 20, 2023 [8 favorites]
Constantine at the Inside Russia podcast has talked about Russia becoming more Soviet. In particular, they seem to be getting back to five year plans and they've taken down plaques to Stalin's victims-- fhese were plaques where the victims had lived.
posted by Nancy Lebovitz at 4:30 AM on June 20, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by Nancy Lebovitz at 4:30 AM on June 20, 2023 [2 favorites]
The old Russians seem to be directly out of casting for some Soviet version of Archie and Edith Bunker. Those were the days, we all feared the central state… we could use a man like Joseph Stalin again.
posted by interogative mood at 9:23 AM on June 20, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by interogative mood at 9:23 AM on June 20, 2023 [1 favorite]
It's not been a secret. Putin has been courting Stalin's legacy openly over the past few years. He longs for those days of USSR domination over that part of the globe. He won't achieve it, but he longs for it.
posted by hippybear at 11:56 AM on June 20, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by hippybear at 11:56 AM on June 20, 2023 [2 favorites]
In fact, it's enough of a thing that Pet Shop Boys put out a single just a few months ago showing Putin visiting St. Petersburg to dedicate a new bust of Stalin there.
posted by hippybear at 6:16 PM on June 20, 2023
posted by hippybear at 6:16 PM on June 20, 2023
I've read a couple of books over the past year that have helped make everything clear for me around Russia and Ukraine. The first was Vanished Kingdoms: The History of Half-Forgotten Europe by Norman Davies, a history of countries that used to exist but no longer do; learning about all the changes in Eastern European borders was really helpful. (I think I first heard of it here, in which case many thanks to the Mefite who recommended it.) The second, more recently, was Masha Gessen's The Future is History: How Totalitarianism Reclaimed Russia, tracing the changes there since the Cold War through the eyes of half a dozen individuals. That one was excellent; when it ended I wished the narrative could have kept going past its publication date of 2017. Some contemporary reviews quibbled with its conclusions or said it was a bit over the top, but from the vantage point of 2023 it was bang on.
posted by rory at 12:15 AM on June 21, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by rory at 12:15 AM on June 21, 2023 [4 favorites]
I have to say, having suffered through my share of pablum from the pen of Francis Fukuyama, that I was pleasantly surprised by his review of Gessen’s book, which rory linked to. I think his central critique, that for authoritarianism to be totalitarian it needs a strong animating ideology, is true. For all of Putin’s power in the world, he has never been able to bring Russia together into a shared project. Say what you will about the tenets of communism, but the Red Army thought they were history’s chosen instrument to liberate the world. The Russian army today thinks it wants some of those washing machines over there.
posted by Kattullus at 2:34 AM on June 21, 2023 [7 favorites]
posted by Kattullus at 2:34 AM on June 21, 2023 [7 favorites]
Jennifer G. Mathers writing in New Lines Magazine: Ukraine Recruits Women Soldiers. Why Doesn’t Russia?
The changing lives of women on and off the battlefield reveal the very different futures for which the warring countries are fightingposted by Harald74 at 3:04 AM on June 22, 2023 [2 favorites]
...
The answer goes much deeper than short-term military requirements, and reveals fundamental differences in the ways that these two countries’ governments and societies see themselves, the ways that they want to be perceived by their allies and sympathizers and the ways that they envisage the future.
Chonhar bridge between Crimea and mainland Ukraine has a hole in it.
posted by UN at 3:56 AM on June 22, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by UN at 3:56 AM on June 22, 2023 [2 favorites]
And to expand a little, it's one of the two road links from Crimea to southern Kherson oblast, and the one on the shortest route from Crimea to Melitopol and the Zaporizhia front.
There's also a rail link nearby, but that hasn't been hit. Yet. What has been hit, two days ago, was a ammo depot at Rykove, about 30km towards Melitopol from here. Several thousand tons of ammo went up in a ginormous fireball courtesy of Storm Shadow, and then kept exploding for over six hours.
posted by Stoneshop at 10:32 AM on June 22, 2023 [2 favorites]
There's also a rail link nearby, but that hasn't been hit. Yet. What has been hit, two days ago, was a ammo depot at Rykove, about 30km towards Melitopol from here. Several thousand tons of ammo went up in a ginormous fireball courtesy of Storm Shadow, and then kept exploding for over six hours.
posted by Stoneshop at 10:32 AM on June 22, 2023 [2 favorites]
Looks like there are a few small causeways over levees spanning the Syvash. But probably not anything you'd want to get your units strung out along, or bunched up at either end of.
I've heard this part of Crimea referred to as a featureless swamp, but at least when there's water in the lagoons it's actually kind of a surreal landscape.
The history of the Perekop-Chongar Operation in the Russian Civil War is probably informing both sides' decisionmaking.
posted by snuffleupagus at 3:41 PM on June 22, 2023 [1 favorite]
I've heard this part of Crimea referred to as a featureless swamp, but at least when there's water in the lagoons it's actually kind of a surreal landscape.
The history of the Perekop-Chongar Operation in the Russian Civil War is probably informing both sides' decisionmaking.
posted by snuffleupagus at 3:41 PM on June 22, 2023 [1 favorite]
If it's anything like the attack on the kertch straight bridge the most important part was that it prevented heavy equipment like tanks and artillery pieces from using the bridge.
I'm no engineer so I have no idea if the damage is enough for it to be an issue or if those other causeways will support a tank.
posted by VTX at 5:00 PM on June 22, 2023
I'm no engineer so I have no idea if the damage is enough for it to be an issue or if those other causeways will support a tank.
posted by VTX at 5:00 PM on June 22, 2023
Mick Ryan sums up the current state of the offensive.
posted by Harald74 at 11:11 PM on June 22, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 11:11 PM on June 22, 2023 [2 favorites]
Prigozhin went on another monologue. He calls the SMO a scam. For those who still believe Russia is a well-oiled machine this is just another part of Putin's plan to keep all elements of the regime in check and so on. If so, I wonder what the purpose is. Blame a few bad generals and oligarchs for the bad results and loss of Crimea and Donbass? Is Prigozhin shoed-in as the future leader of the Russian Societ Socialist Federation?
Link: Prigozhin Derides Ukraine Invasion as ‘Racket’ to Enrich Russia’s Elite [NY Times headlines him him as a 'mercenary tycoon' which seems like an oddly positive description for a murderous war criminal asshole. But he's rich, so tycoon he is.]
posted by UN at 11:52 AM on June 23, 2023
Link: Prigozhin Derides Ukraine Invasion as ‘Racket’ to Enrich Russia’s Elite [NY Times headlines him him as a 'mercenary tycoon' which seems like an oddly positive description for a murderous war criminal asshole. But he's rich, so tycoon he is.]
posted by UN at 11:52 AM on June 23, 2023
Man running PMC at center of war decries war as get rich scheme? I'm confused.
What's next in Russia's war: Beyond the counteroffensive
Kyiv Independent panel, hosted by Olga Rudenko, with Michael Kofman, Illia Ponomarenko, Franics Farrell.
posted by snuffleupagus at 11:59 AM on June 23, 2023 [1 favorite]
What's next in Russia's war: Beyond the counteroffensive
Kyiv Independent panel, hosted by Olga Rudenko, with Michael Kofman, Illia Ponomarenko, Franics Farrell.
posted by snuffleupagus at 11:59 AM on June 23, 2023 [1 favorite]
Russian military openly wearing USSR flag patches (Oct 2022)
Many (most?) of the rank and file members weren't even born when the USSR existed. Probably helps perpetuate the myth if you don't have first-hand experience. Parallels to the US Confederate flag.
posted by meowzilla at 12:00 PM on June 23, 2023 [2 favorites]
Many (most?) of the rank and file members weren't even born when the USSR existed. Probably helps perpetuate the myth if you don't have first-hand experience. Parallels to the US Confederate flag.
posted by meowzilla at 12:00 PM on June 23, 2023 [2 favorites]
Colonel General Aleksandr Lapin, the man in the photo wearing the USSR patch, is old enough to have served in the Red Army, so it may be an affectation based on that. If the rank and file start doing it, then something really strange would be going on, and I doubt the current ruling class would be comfortable with it.
posted by Kattullus at 12:37 PM on June 23, 2023
posted by Kattullus at 12:37 PM on June 23, 2023
If this is true...
"The leftovers of Wagners on the outskirts of Bakhmut opened fire on the regular roads of the Russian Federation.
Our assault brigades see everything, systematic strikes are now being carried out on the positions of the Russians.
You would hear the radio broadcast of these *** now.
The impression is that part of the Russian regular troops are killing their own, and it seems that part of the military is supporting Prigozhin. While it is not clear what is finally happening, it is a bloodbath"
posted by UN at 1:16 PM on June 23, 2023 [1 favorite]
"The leftovers of Wagners on the outskirts of Bakhmut opened fire on the regular roads of the Russian Federation.
Our assault brigades see everything, systematic strikes are now being carried out on the positions of the Russians.
You would hear the radio broadcast of these *** now.
The impression is that part of the Russian regular troops are killing their own, and it seems that part of the military is supporting Prigozhin. While it is not clear what is finally happening, it is a bloodbath"
posted by UN at 1:16 PM on June 23, 2023 [1 favorite]
Prigozhin, 20:29 BST:
"This is no military coup. This is a march for Justice. Our actions do not interfere with the army in any way".
posted by UN at 1:20 PM on June 23, 2023
"This is no military coup. This is a march for Justice. Our actions do not interfere with the army in any way".
posted by UN at 1:20 PM on June 23, 2023
The NY Times has picked up the story as well: Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, the outspoken Russian mercenary tycoon, accused the Russian military of attacking his private forces on Friday, shortly after he described his country’s invasion of Ukraine as a “racket” perpetrated by a corrupt elite chasing money and glory without concern for Russian lives.
If true, it's unclear if this is a small isolated incident or the symptom of something bigger.
posted by Dip Flash at 1:41 PM on June 23, 2023 [1 favorite]
If true, it's unclear if this is a small isolated incident or the symptom of something bigger.
posted by Dip Flash at 1:41 PM on June 23, 2023 [1 favorite]
Prigozhin "declares war on Russian Ministry of Defence".
"The evil that the military leadership of the country bears must be stopped. I ask you not to resist anyone. Everyone who tries will be destroyed. Justice in the troops will be restored, and after that, justice in all of Russia," Prigozhin says.
"There are 25,000 of us and we are going to find out why there is lawlessness in the country. Our strategic reserve is the entire army and the entire country. Everyone who wants to join. We must end this disgrace."
[This should be interesting]
posted by UN at 1:42 PM on June 23, 2023
"The evil that the military leadership of the country bears must be stopped. I ask you not to resist anyone. Everyone who tries will be destroyed. Justice in the troops will be restored, and after that, justice in all of Russia," Prigozhin says.
"There are 25,000 of us and we are going to find out why there is lawlessness in the country. Our strategic reserve is the entire army and the entire country. Everyone who wants to join. We must end this disgrace."
[This should be interesting]
posted by UN at 1:42 PM on June 23, 2023
Twitter is pretty wild right now, with photos and reports of mobilizations and activations of security plans in various places in Russia. Who knows what is actually true, but it's definitely topsy turvy at a minimum.
posted by Dip Flash at 1:52 PM on June 23, 2023
posted by Dip Flash at 1:52 PM on June 23, 2023
Twitter is nearly useless under these circumstances, I find. The independent, Russian-in-exile newssite Meduza has a good liveblog about Prigozshin’s revolt.
posted by Kattullus at 2:02 PM on June 23, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by Kattullus at 2:02 PM on June 23, 2023 [4 favorites]
Mercenaries, amirite?
If the Wagner Group is actually declaring war on Putin, I suspect we're going to need a new thread. My my.
posted by mrjohnmuller at 2:03 PM on June 23, 2023 [2 favorites]
If the Wagner Group is actually declaring war on Putin, I suspect we're going to need a new thread. My my.
posted by mrjohnmuller at 2:03 PM on June 23, 2023 [2 favorites]
Wagner honored the contracts with prisoners they recruited. There are probably 30-60k former Russian prisoners who got their amnesty and went back home at the end of their contracts. You can bet he kept the most useful ones (mafia/connections) out of the meat grinder. This is going to be interesting.
posted by interogative mood at 2:11 PM on June 23, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 2:11 PM on June 23, 2023 [2 favorites]
Even the military coups have been privatized.
posted by UN at 2:23 PM on June 23, 2023 [8 favorites]
posted by UN at 2:23 PM on June 23, 2023 [8 favorites]
Even the military coups have been privatized.
Or as the defense editor at the Economist just tweeted: It will never stop being funny that a war launched to capture Kyiv in a few days has resulted in an attempted insurrection by the presidential caterer.
I'm guessing it will take a while to figure out if this is an actual Big Deal or just another weird Prigozhin drama.
posted by Dip Flash at 2:34 PM on June 23, 2023 [2 favorites]
Or as the defense editor at the Economist just tweeted: It will never stop being funny that a war launched to capture Kyiv in a few days has resulted in an attempted insurrection by the presidential caterer.
I'm guessing it will take a while to figure out if this is an actual Big Deal or just another weird Prigozhin drama.
posted by Dip Flash at 2:34 PM on June 23, 2023 [2 favorites]
If the rank and file start doing it, then something really strange would be going on, and I doubt the current ruling class would be comfortable with it.
The Russian mechanized convoys were festooned with Soviet battle flags during last year's initial invasion, and they were also raised over captured Ukrainian settlements.
posted by snuffleupagus at 2:41 PM on June 23, 2023
The Russian mechanized convoys were festooned with Soviet battle flags during last year's initial invasion, and they were also raised over captured Ukrainian settlements.
posted by snuffleupagus at 2:41 PM on June 23, 2023
"It will never stop being funny that a war launched to capture Kyiv in a few days has after 470-odd days resulted in an attempted insurrection by the presidential caterer."
posted by Stoneshop at 2:46 PM on June 23, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by Stoneshop at 2:46 PM on June 23, 2023 [3 favorites]
Zaluzhny and Budanov will be watching verrrrry intently; the popcorn will have to wait.
posted by Stoneshop at 2:55 PM on June 23, 2023
posted by Stoneshop at 2:55 PM on June 23, 2023
Depending on disposition of Russian forces on the ground, the whole situation could be changed just by Wagner repositioning to expose the regular Army's flanks to Ukrainian forces. Prigo doesn't necessarily have to directly attack anyone to destablilize the political situation by triggering a rout (making his predictions a self-fulfilling prophecy).
I don't know how seriously to take this, but Konstantine is doing a live ep of 'Inside Russia' and speculating that if there's actual fighting between the Army and Wagner it could wind up with the forces withdrawn within a couple weeks to keep the lid on things at home on way or another. I don't know if he means to 2022 or 2014 borders.
posted by snuffleupagus at 3:02 PM on June 23, 2023 [1 favorite]
I don't know how seriously to take this, but Konstantine is doing a live ep of 'Inside Russia' and speculating that if there's actual fighting between the Army and Wagner it could wind up with the forces withdrawn within a couple weeks to keep the lid on things at home on way or another. I don't know if he means to 2022 or 2014 borders.
posted by snuffleupagus at 3:02 PM on June 23, 2023 [1 favorite]
Illia Ponomarenko: "Ballet fans in Russia are about to have their golden days"
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 3:32 PM on June 23, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 3:32 PM on June 23, 2023 [4 favorites]
snuffleupagus: The Russian mechanized convoys were festooned with Soviet battle flags during last year's initial invasion, and they were also raised over captured Ukrainian settlements.
In some ways it’s a distinction without a difference, but I’d like to note that this was the Victory Banner, which commemorates the defeat of Nazi Germany, which has remained in use in various post-Soviet states since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, not any Red Army flag (as a side note, the Red Army never had a specific flag, other than the Soviet one).
Putin’s regime has been very careful to make invocations of the Soviet past to be about Russian nationalism, and not any kind of communism. For instance, the 9th of May, V-E Day, is still a major holiday in Russia, but November 7th, October Revolution Day, ceased to be a holiday during the early years of Putin’s presidency.
But if that seems like an impossible needle to thread, you’re not wrong.
posted by Kattullus at 3:35 PM on June 23, 2023
In some ways it’s a distinction without a difference, but I’d like to note that this was the Victory Banner, which commemorates the defeat of Nazi Germany, which has remained in use in various post-Soviet states since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, not any Red Army flag (as a side note, the Red Army never had a specific flag, other than the Soviet one).
Putin’s regime has been very careful to make invocations of the Soviet past to be about Russian nationalism, and not any kind of communism. For instance, the 9th of May, V-E Day, is still a major holiday in Russia, but November 7th, October Revolution Day, ceased to be a holiday during the early years of Putin’s presidency.
But if that seems like an impossible needle to thread, you’re not wrong.
posted by Kattullus at 3:35 PM on June 23, 2023
I gather that might have been what was originally intended; but if you poke around it would seem that in least some instances the plain ol' hammer and sickle was easier to find.
posted by snuffleupagus at 3:42 PM on June 23, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by snuffleupagus at 3:42 PM on June 23, 2023 [1 favorite]
If the rank and file start doing it, then something really strange would be going on, and I doubt the current ruling class would be comfortable with it.... with "it" being USSR patches on military uniforms.
I seriously doubt it would cause much discomfort to the ruling class; in fact I suspect they might welcome it. Putin and his regime have been putting out USSR-idealizing propaganda for years and years, and it seems to me to be much more "We need a strongman like Stalin" and much less "We need to get rid of capitalism-run-amok".
posted by Flunkie at 4:07 PM on June 23, 2023
In case anyone doesn't know already, there's a thread specifically about the Prigozhin thing.
posted by Flunkie at 5:46 PM on June 23, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by Flunkie at 5:46 PM on June 23, 2023 [4 favorites]
Telegram, Twitter and the usual sources are a mess right now. This is a wait and see situation.
posted by interogative mood at 5:48 PM on June 23, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by interogative mood at 5:48 PM on June 23, 2023 [1 favorite]
I would assume that Ukraine has better intelligence than we do so if they are stepping up the offensive to take advantage of this chaos, then there is probably some real chaos to be taken advantage of.
posted by VTX at 8:34 PM on June 23, 2023
posted by VTX at 8:34 PM on June 23, 2023
This situation presents a real dilemma for tankies everywhere. On one hand, tanks rolling in the streets. On the other, those tanks are in Russia...
posted by UN at 10:08 PM on June 23, 2023 [6 favorites]
posted by UN at 10:08 PM on June 23, 2023 [6 favorites]
So... what's happening on the Ukrainian fronts? Is there a de facto detente or are operations still ongoing and hot?
posted by porpoise at 10:56 PM on June 24, 2023
posted by porpoise at 10:56 PM on June 24, 2023
The Ukrainians have not let up the pressure at all, why should they, but the information has pretty much drowned in the Wagner debacle. While we wait for updates, this summary by Kasparov is good reading: Garry Kasparov -The Fall of Putin is Inevitable
posted by Harald74 at 11:14 PM on June 24, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by Harald74 at 11:14 PM on June 24, 2023 [1 favorite]
So... what's happening on the Ukrainian fronts? Is there a de facto detente or are operations still ongoing and hot?
Lots of fighting occurred but there were no huge gains by either side. Ukraine pressed along the whole front and made some local advances. Ukraine did manage to gain some ground inside Bahkmut and captured a village in Donbas that had been under DNR/Russian occupation since 2014.
posted by interogative mood at 9:37 AM on June 25, 2023 [1 favorite]
Lots of fighting occurred but there were no huge gains by either side. Ukraine pressed along the whole front and made some local advances. Ukraine did manage to gain some ground inside Bahkmut and captured a village in Donbas that had been under DNR/Russian occupation since 2014.
posted by interogative mood at 9:37 AM on June 25, 2023 [1 favorite]
So, this just came across my Mastodon account. I am not sure who Mariya Delano is but she has a LOT of links and stuff she's gathering about Ukraine and associated events. She seems to be doing a great job pulling things together, feels like old-time Twitter.
posted by hippybear at 2:01 PM on June 25, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by hippybear at 2:01 PM on June 25, 2023 [1 favorite]
And now today Mariya announced she won't be doing any more coverage of this war. Ah well, it was nice for the short time i saw what she had to contribute.
posted by hippybear at 11:16 AM on June 26, 2023
posted by hippybear at 11:16 AM on June 26, 2023
So, continuing to follow Mariya's Mastodon account, it seems her LinkedIn was suspended, and there have been hints maybe this was political retaliation for her participating in rounding up news about this whole conflict. That's a weird thing, and I hope it's just a glitch.
posted by hippybear at 1:42 PM on June 26, 2023
posted by hippybear at 1:42 PM on June 26, 2023
So... what's happening on the Ukrainian fronts? Is there a de facto detente or are operations still ongoing and hot?
Latest news I heard is that Ukraine managed to get a bridgehead at the Antonivskyi Bridge which they are still holding after two(?) days.
posted by kmt at 4:26 AM on June 27, 2023 [5 favorites]
Latest news I heard is that Ukraine managed to get a bridgehead at the Antonivskyi Bridge which they are still holding after two(?) days.
posted by kmt at 4:26 AM on June 27, 2023 [5 favorites]
This thread's about to expire anyway, so Prigozhin thread may well do for general Ukraine chatter.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 12:57 PM on June 27, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by I claim sanctuary at 12:57 PM on June 27, 2023 [2 favorites]
I'm not going to make a new war thread this time, as I'm on my summer holidays and only have my phone with me. On the other hand, northern Denmark is lovely this time of year, so I dont't feel too bad about letting someone else pick up the slack.
posted by Harald74 at 11:05 AM on June 28, 2023 [6 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 11:05 AM on June 28, 2023 [6 favorites]
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posted by Harald74 at 3:01 AM on May 30, 2023 [1 favorite]