Not-so-lovely Rita

September 20, 2005 7:17 AM

Got off the phone with my dad a little after midnight. He said, "It looks like this is finally the big one we've been talking about all these years..." Will the town made famous by Hemingway, Tennessee Williams, Jimmy Buffet, Mel Fisher, and, er, Pat Croce be the next metropolitan casualty?
posted by soyjoy (55 comments total)

No. It's only a Cat 1, and a weak one at that. The Keys got brushed by at least one storm this powerful last year. They'll be fine.

It's Galveston that should worry. Most models put the storm in that area by this weekend, after a fortifying jaunt over the Gulf of Mexico that will raise it to at least Cat 3 status.

The Keys are fine. For now.
posted by saladin at 7:24 AM on September 20, 2005

Surely, Key West can weather a category 1 hurricane. The Keys prolly see a couple of these a year. In the wake of Katrina, it seems folks are understandably a bit gun shy, but let's not get too alarmist.
posted by wsg at 7:26 AM on September 20, 2005

Models predicting it to hit at cat 3 strength... nothing worth going insane over yet.

Hurricanes : 2005 :: shark attacks : 2004, in terms of public frenzy.
posted by wakko at 7:28 AM on September 20, 2005

It's a cat-1.

Plus, the key's arn't below-sea level. What's intresting is that people are predicting this could speed up and hit Galveston, and then huston. Got to be fun for all those residents of the astrodome...
posted by delmoi at 7:28 AM on September 20, 2005

If recent history has taught us anything, it's that we're collectively really good at estimating the amount of damage a hurricane will cause. Key-westers: stay in your homes, throw a Hurricane themed party!
posted by Plutor at 7:30 AM on September 20, 2005

Hurricanes : 2005 :: shark attacks : 2004, in terms of public frenzy.

Yeah. Remember that shark that ate half of New Orleans last summer, and then everyone was all worried about their city being wiped off the maps by shark attack the rest of the year? It's like that. Silly people.
posted by gompa at 7:30 AM on September 20, 2005

And hurricane season STILL isn't over - will we run out of names?
posted by kuperman at 7:30 AM on September 20, 2005

I just can't for the Mainstream Media get ahold of a key west disaster. Those aren't looters, they're the cast of queer eye.
posted by srboisvert at 7:31 AM on September 20, 2005

wait. can't wait. arrrgh.
posted by srboisvert at 7:31 AM on September 20, 2005

From the MEFI Shocking News and Unbelievable Weather Center: Hurricane to strike Florida.

Wake me up when it's a Category 5.
posted by three blind mice at 7:32 AM on September 20, 2005

The problem is that the Gulf is so unbelievably warm--because the Odden ice shelf never really formed last winter, so it didn't melt as much, so the Gulf Stream isn't as strong, so all the warm water's staying put in the Gulf. This is also going to make it a bitterly cold winter in northern Europe--the part of the dying Gulf Stream that experts have really focused on. But it also makes the Gulf practically boiling, so any cyclone that enters it will very likely become a major hurricane.

Katrina was as tiny a pup as Rita when she entered the Gulf, too.
posted by jefgodesky at 7:34 AM on September 20, 2005

The Keys prolly see a couple of these a year.

Right, they see them coming and then glancing off one way or another - Key West has been remarkably lucky at the last minute in most of these. What they're talking about down there is how there's now no way the eye is gonna miss them, and whether this is going to top the damage from Georges.
posted by soyjoy at 7:35 AM on September 20, 2005

will we run out of names?

Possibly -- there aren't many left in the pool, namely, Stan, Tammy, Vince and Wilma. After that would come Alpha, then Beta, and so on through the Greek Alphabet.

This is only the second time, I think, that we've reached R (1995 reached S.) However, we still have a fair chunk of September and all of October and November left in the season, there's very little vertical sheer in the hurricane zones, and the seas are very warm in the Gulf, Carribbean Sea, and the Atlantic. I'm pretty certain we'll see Tropical Storm Alpha.
posted by eriko at 7:37 AM on September 20, 2005

wakko: "Hurricanes : 2005 :: shark attacks : 2004, in terms of public frenzy."

That's not fair. 2005 is shaping up to be:

1) A very strong season from the start. Dennis was the strongest storm to ever form before August, and eight days later, Emily broke that record.
2) The busiest season ever for Atlantic hurricanes. Rita and Phillipe are named storms #16 and #17. There are only twenty names on the list, and after that, we'll have Hurricane Alpha, Hurricane Beta, etc. The only time we've had more than 20 storms in one season was in 1933 (predating storm naming). And the season doesn't traditionally end until November 30.
3) The most powerful season ever, by far. The Accumulated Cyclone Energy through the end of July was 61. The previous highest was 49 in 1916, and it hasn't broken 33 since 1966.
4) The most deadly season probably since the Galveston Hurricane of 1900.

Comparing that to shark attacks is a really bad idea.
posted by Plutor at 7:39 AM on September 20, 2005

What if the sharks had lasers?
posted by blue_beetle at 7:41 AM on September 20, 2005

Oh yeah, as to Rita -- Saying "It's only a Cat I now" is a fast way to die. Katrina hit Florida, as a Cat I, crossed the penisula, exiting as a tropical storm on the 26 -- and within a day, was a major hurricane, and within two, hit Cat V.

The Gulf is *very* warm, and there's little wind sheer. This is exactly what storms need to strengthen. While explosive growth isn't forecast, and isn't likely, assuming that Rita will hit the keys as a minimal hurricane is a bad idea. Given the state of the Gulf and the way storms in the area have grown of late -- Ivan, Dennis, Emily and Katrina all turned into major hurricanes over the Gulf -- it's foolish to assume that Rita will not intesify before landfall. Indeed, given recent history, the better bet is the opposite.
posted by eriko at 7:48 AM on September 20, 2005

Yeah, I'm not saying Rita won't be a bitch later on, but it's not goin to do anything to the keys.
posted by delmoi at 7:51 AM on September 20, 2005

I won't get out of bed for anything less than a Category Three.
posted by ColdChef at 7:52 AM on September 20, 2005

How come these things never wipe out Disney World? I ask this not because I think Disney is too nice to queers but because however "liberal" it is I hate the Disney Empire -- and I'm not alone.

My nieces like Disney World but they've been already this year, and anyway I'd expect if a big hurricane were coming Disney World would have the prudence to close, right?
posted by davy at 7:58 AM on September 20, 2005

I won't get out of bed for anything less than a Category Three.
posted by ColdChef at 10:52 AM EST on September 20 [!]

Coming from you, ColdChef, with what you've seen in the last weeks, that's cold irony.
posted by paulsc at 7:58 AM on September 20, 2005

Current models of its path. Temperature map of the Gulf. A previous Galveston hurricane discussion/links.

Yes, it is a long way out, but this one is pretty predictable. It's gonna get bigger and it's probably gonna slam Texas at Cat. 4. Looks like those people who fled the Superdome for the Astrodome are gonna get a sequel (although Houston is farther inland). I'd be stocking up on plywood, if I lived in Galveston/Corpus Christi.
posted by spock at 8:04 AM on September 20, 2005

Did anyone else notice the irony in the "Flying Mini" animated pop-over ads on a hurricane weather map?
posted by anthill at 8:07 AM on September 20, 2005

How come these things never wipe out Disney World?

Because it's smack-dab in the middle of Florida. Florida isn't as small as you think it is. We drove from Connecticut to Florida, and thought were in the home stretch when we crossed the border on I-95. Yep, that's 6 more hours of Florida driving to go, folks.

Pennsilvania doesn't take that long to cross, length-wise.
posted by thanotopsis at 8:07 AM on September 20, 2005

What if the sharks had lasers?

On their frickin' heads?
posted by NationalKato at 8:11 AM on September 20, 2005

For people that live in the Gulf Coast, a Cat 1 to Cat 3 really is a "whatever" thing. There's going to be tree damage. There's going to be that one building that has its roof torn off (because it was a shoddy roof) that everybody shows on the news. Really, the only reason people around here are whipped into a frenzy is because everybody else in the nation is.

New Orleans / Katrina was a different story. Listen, we know hurricanes. Everyone on the coast has a pretty good idea what's going to be a brush-off and what's going to be the holy shit apocalypse. A good majority of us knew what was going to happen with New Orleans, after we saw the logistical breakdown from Ivan last year.

Rita, as it stands, is a whatever at the moment. It will probably strengthen to about a minor Cat 4 over the warm gulf waters, and hit western LA / TX.
posted by Stan Chin at 8:16 AM on September 20, 2005

What if the sharks had lasers?

On their frickin' heads?

every creature deserves a warm meal.
posted by stefan at 8:20 AM on September 20, 2005

"I'd be stocking up on plywood, if I lived in Galveston/Corpus Christi."

You know, with so many shipments of materials going to rebuild Iraq, and now N.O., I've got to believe plywood is going to be in pretty damned short supply.

And if we run through the alphabet, I'm all for Hurricane Aardvark.
posted by j.p. Hung at 8:21 AM on September 20, 2005

MetaFilter: the holy shit apocalypse.
posted by loquacious at 8:31 AM on September 20, 2005

And if we run through the alphabet, I'm all for Hurricane Aardvark.

No j.p. Hung, since God sends these here hurricanes to smite the unbelievers (in His divine mercy) they should be given Biblical names or military mission style names: Hurricane Leviticus, Hurricane Just Cause, or Hurricane New Orleans Freedom.
posted by three blind mice at 8:47 AM on September 20, 2005

Greek alphabet....'aardvark'....biblical....mission-style....

... there's an "English-only" joke in there somewhere, but I'm too lazy to figure out what it is...
posted by lodurr at 8:50 AM on September 20, 2005

My nieces like Disney World but they've been already this year, and anyway I'd expect if a big hurricane were coming Disney World would have the prudence to close, right?

They never wipe out Disney World because Disney World is in the middle of the state and far enough inland that most hurricanes are somewhat defanged by the time they get there (not to mention they're in part of the state that rarely gets hit). That was part of the reason that Walt Disney selected the area (the other being plenty of available land and a confluence of major roadways).

Full disclosure that this is a bit of a self-link since I run MousePlanet, but here is an account (part 1, part 2) not by me of being at Disney World when Charley came through last year. It was still a category 2 hurricane at that time and was the first to directly hit the area in 44 years (that is, the first since before Walt Disney World opened). (Another account from one of our readers who went through it.

Three weeks later Frances came through the area, though it didn't do so much damage (details).

In both cases, yes they did close the parks and on property guests were restricted to their hotel rooms or larger public areas of the hotel resorts. By all accounts, Disney did a pretty good job of handling things, before during and after the storm came through.
posted by obfusciatrist at 8:56 AM on September 20, 2005

My parents in Waco, Tx are getting forecasts that, if Rita stays the course, will give them high winds, heavy rains, and tornados by the week's end.

Man, you could not PAY me to live on the coasts...I'm high and dry in Wyoming, where you just have to worry about Yellowstone and Dick Cheney.
posted by Sharktattoo at 9:10 AM on September 20, 2005

You know, I have one simple request. And that is to have sharks with frickin' laser beams attached to their heads! Now evidently my cycloptic colleague informs me that that cannot be done. Ah, would you remind me what I pay you people for, honestly? Throw me a bone here! What do we have? -- Dr. Evil
posted by hrbrmstr at 9:28 AM on September 20, 2005

Looks like the eye has veered a little southward, so the worst will just miss Key West - again!

The only explanation is that God wants to avoid punishing all the sinners in that crazy town.
posted by soyjoy at 9:42 AM on September 20, 2005

When's Hurricane Halliburton set to come in? Or is there a religious movement to name the hurricanes after their pet causes yet? Hurricane Pro-Life? Hurricane Smite the Icky Gays? Hurricane Sodomy is for Republican Senators and Texas Governors Only? Hurricane George Bush Don't Like Black People?

Sharktattoo, Yellowstone or yellow snow? And the entire rest of the world shares your worries about Dick Cheney and his black heart.

And I call no fair on Mother Nature if she wipes the Keys. She already broke New Orleans and I haven't been there yet either.
posted by fenriq at 9:48 AM on September 20, 2005

Man, you could not PAY me to live on the coasts

You could pay me to live in San Francisco. Or Seattle for that matter. Hell, I'll even move to Maui if you pay me enough.

I'm waiting ...
posted by mrgrimm at 10:04 AM on September 20, 2005

spock writes "I'd be stocking up on plywood, if I lived in Galveston/Corpus Christi."

Can someone explain to me why there is always this big last minute frenzy of plywood shopping when a huricane threatens? Why wouldn't you just keep the sheets from year to year?
posted by Mitheral at 10:34 AM on September 20, 2005

OK, it's official: Key West Dodges the Bullet.

There'll be flooding and damage, but it's not The Big One yet. Thanks everybody, and drive safely!
posted by soyjoy at 10:43 AM on September 20, 2005

George Bush does not care about Parrotheads.
posted by robocop is bleeding at 10:56 AM on September 20, 2005

Hurricane Golden Palace?
posted by TwelveTwo at 11:04 AM on September 20, 2005

Buffett. (2) t's.

That is all.
posted by yoga at 11:38 AM on September 20, 2005

Can someone explain to me why there is always this big last minute frenzy of plywood shopping when a huricane threatens? Why wouldn't you just keep the sheets from year to year?

Perhaps between hurricanes (which might come to a given area only once a decade or so) they can't resist the temptation to use it to create other wonderful things like this or this?
posted by spock at 11:39 AM on September 20, 2005

Can someone explain to me why there is always this big last minute frenzy of plywood shopping when a huricane threatens? Why wouldn't you just keep the sheets from year to year?

It seemed like there's a lot of people that do keep the sheets from year to year. I've seen pictures of boarded up windows where the plywood had the names of half a dozen hurricanes on it with dates, errata and even cursing or pleading scribed on the wood.

I saw a lot of pictures of boarded up bars and restaurants in the French Quarter that had brightly painted and fitted plywood boards, either matching the trim of the building or in Mardi Gras colors.

I can only assume they also keep 'em around for Mardi Gras as well as hurricanes, to keep the swelling, swilling hoardes of fratboys from pouring in their windows like so much brackish storm surge.
posted by loquacious at 12:07 PM on September 20, 2005

Watching the coverage of Key West, I wonder if the press learned anything from New Orleans.

I looks like the bullet was mostly dodged, but they're mostly sticking to the tourist area of Key West and some of the middle keys which are mostly middle class or pretty well off.

If you get just five or six blocks out of the tourist strip in Key West you'll find yourself in the middle of a very poor, very ramshackle, very black neighborhood. If there is any part of Key West likely to be severely damaged by a hurricane, I'd think it this area.
posted by obfusciatrist at 12:08 PM on September 20, 2005

obfusciatrist - Yep. That's where my dad lives.
posted by soyjoy at 12:15 PM on September 20, 2005

The latest air force reconnaissance indicates that Rita is now a category two hurricane with 100MPH winds. The central pressure was 976 mb, down 9 mb in the past 6 hours. Given its current rate of intensification, Rita could become a large Category 3 hurricane as early as tomorrow morning... which would still put it about 65 hours away from landfall, currently predicted to be somewhere near the Galveston/Houston area... best guess currently would be Port Lavaca.

The problem is, this hurricane could get so big by the time it makes landfall, it might not matter if it lands a little bit to the south of Galveston/Houston, as they would still get walloped by the strongest winds on the east side of the hurricane anyway.

The National Hurricane Center is currently predicting a 25% chance that it will be a cat-4 in 72 hours, and a 25% chance it will be a cat-5. That's not good, because even if you take their average, that means that it will still be in the high cat-3/low cat-4 range with about 18 hours to strengthen before landfall on the Texas coast.

In other words, Rita is statistically likely to develop into a hurricane that is roughly equivalent to both Katrina's strength and size.
posted by insomnia_lj at 12:22 PM on September 20, 2005

Interesting article from Feb. of this year:

Is Houston ready for the big storm?

"no one really knows whether the Southeast Texas coast could be quickly and safely evacuated in the event of a Category 4 or Category 5 hurricane. . . In only one area are the experts in agreement. . . State and local officials have little confidence in their ability to evacuate those without cars, living in group homes or many of the sick and elderly living alone. Plans are in the works, they say, but for now those who are most vulnerable are living on the edge of disaster."
posted by insomnia_lj at 12:37 PM on September 20, 2005

How bad would NOLA have been had the levees held? There was a picture panel shown here where it seemed lots of downtown was okay-ish. I'm wondering what "as big as Katrina" means for somewhere above sea level.
posted by bonaldi at 1:01 PM on September 20, 2005

bonaldi, Waveland and Biloxi are above sea level, and got hammered pretty badly. The storm surge east of NOLA was upwards of 20 feet. NOLA did get whipped around by the storm itself -- witness the structural damage to the Superdome and the Marriott Hotel -- but it was the storm surge and flooding that endangered lives and devastated the city. Ultimately, of course, many people died indirectly due to, for instance, heat exhaustion as they waited for rescue.

Briefly, if the flooding hadn't happened, we'd still remember Katrina as one of the worst hurricanes to hit the US in terms of damage.

Galveston's 1900 hurricane was very similar to the Katrina experience in many respects, in that it was a barrier island on which thousands of people were trapped, and the storm surge acted like a tsunami in wallopping and washing away buildings and survivors. Even with floodwalls and raised land, Galveston remains vulnerable, so evacuation will probably be mandatory.

Houston is low-lying but above sea level. In prior storms some of the expressway cuts have become filled with water and there's been flooding along the ship channel and estuaries, but it's inland enough that it won't get the brunt of the storm as did New Orleans.
posted by dhartung at 3:20 PM on September 20, 2005

dhartung, I've been told by ex-Houstonites I've worked with that the city is "full of gullies" and "mostly reclaimed swamp", and have had the impression it would be a pretty darn inconvenient place after a big slow storm. I'm thinking a slow cat 1 or cat 2 could hurt them more than a fast-moving cat 3. What say you? You seem to know the town.

... since everyone else is being too gracious to point this out, I'll do it: Maybe if Houston did get hit, certain DC-dwelling faux Texans might pay more attention to things like disaster preparedness and global warming... nah.
posted by lodurr at 3:44 PM on September 20, 2005

Ahem. Re the Cat 1 blow-offs, I would argue that it's only a "whatever" thing once if you're on the Gulf Coast.

I was in Victoria (TX) in 2003 for Claudette, a Cat 1 that most residents still maintain briefly went to Cat 2, but the people who decide these things eventually changed their minds and the insurance companies followed suit. "Only" one death, but the demolished buildings, cars, and lives (not all businesses are easily rebuilt, no matter how well-insured) plus the power downtime and the post-storm rains that added to the damage made an unforgettable impact. I'd never live on the Gulf again. (And it's not like Victoria is near the beach, anyway.)

All I'm saying is - once you've had a giant log whizz at top speed a few inches past your face, you stop thinking "whatever" about a Cat 1. It's still a hurricane. Maybe the whole world doesn't need to hear about it on CNN, but it's insulting and ignorant to dismiss all Cat 1s as a single shoddy roof being blown off and some tree damage.
posted by Liffey at 6:04 PM on September 20, 2005

Speaking of damage, I know everyone is just talking about Houston and all in an attempt not to worry about my dad, so I'll put all of your minds at ease with this bulletin - so far no discernible damage in his property (or to his person) and what he can see of his neighbors'. Last night at this time all the models would have had his living room, at the least, underwater, but so far no leaking, even, just the constant sound of "some guy up on my roof jumping up and down on it." Power has been out and come back on about eight times.

So yeah, in retrospect the FPP was ridiculously alarmist. But there were alarms, I tell you!
posted by soyjoy at 7:32 PM on September 20, 2005

I'm really glad to hear that, soyjoy.
posted by bonaldi at 7:49 PM on September 20, 2005

God is displeased.
posted by insomnia_lj at 8:52 AM on September 21, 2005

I hear you, Liffey. I was in Charlotte, NC, for Hugo, roughly 250 miles from landfall. Yup, only Category 1, but the damage was mind blowing.
posted by MrMoonPie at 9:38 AM on September 21, 2005