Leicester City Longshot
February 12, 2016 4:33 PM Subscribe
Premier League leader Leicester City entered the season as a 5,000-1 underdog -- the same chance as a bet on Elvis being alive -- which is why the English soccer team could become the undisputed champion of beating the odds.
William Hill, an England-based bookmaker, had the Foxes as 5,000-1 long shots to win the Premier League before this season. If they hold on to claim the title, it would be the biggest upset in sports history.
William Hill, an England-based bookmaker, had the Foxes as 5,000-1 long shots to win the Premier League before this season. If they hold on to claim the title, it would be the biggest upset in sports history.
some analysis of why / how they've managed this.
(i used to live in leicester. favourite place in the uk i've lived in. really nice place.)
posted by andrewcooke at 4:46 PM on February 12, 2016 [2 favorites]
(i used to live in leicester. favourite place in the uk i've lived in. really nice place.)
posted by andrewcooke at 4:46 PM on February 12, 2016 [2 favorites]
Leicester have done really well by doing the simple things really well--defending in an organized, tenacious way, working hard to win the ball back when they give it away (which they do often), and scoring when they need to. They have an in-form goal-scorer in Vardy; if he were to be injured for long they might struggle a lot. No one expected them to be doing this well, but it's not a fluke.
This weekend will be crucial for Arsenal. Are the players coming back form injury (especially Coquelin and Alexis) back in form, or not? Does Ozil have one of his good games, or is he marked out? I think we (Arsenal) can do it but it will be a big test.
posted by librosegretti at 5:16 PM on February 12, 2016
This weekend will be crucial for Arsenal. Are the players coming back form injury (especially Coquelin and Alexis) back in form, or not? Does Ozil have one of his good games, or is he marked out? I think we (Arsenal) can do it but it will be a big test.
posted by librosegretti at 5:16 PM on February 12, 2016
At least they're Blue!
Since my Blues (Chelsea) are out of the running this season, I'm pulling for the Foxes to win it.
posted by zakur at 5:19 PM on February 12, 2016 [1 favorite]
Since my Blues (Chelsea) are out of the running this season, I'm pulling for the Foxes to win it.
posted by zakur at 5:19 PM on February 12, 2016 [1 favorite]
With Richard III on their side, what could possibly go wrong?
March 26, 2015: Richard III re-buried in Leicester Cathedral. Leicester City in last place.
April 4-May 24: Leicester go 7-1-1 to finish the season 14th. Only loss against champion Chelsea.
2015-2016 season: Leicester in first place.
posted by Huffy Puffy at 5:22 PM on February 12, 2016 [11 favorites]
March 26, 2015: Richard III re-buried in Leicester Cathedral. Leicester City in last place.
April 4-May 24: Leicester go 7-1-1 to finish the season 14th. Only loss against champion Chelsea.
2015-2016 season: Leicester in first place.
posted by Huffy Puffy at 5:22 PM on February 12, 2016 [11 favorites]
Heck, if they lose on Saturday, they are still up by 2, and their schedule isn't too bad through the end of the season.
posted by surlyben at 5:41 PM on February 12, 2016
posted by surlyben at 5:41 PM on February 12, 2016
I admit to standard Reds hubris of "Well, once Leicester drops off, we'll be able to take 4th..." This is, unfortunately, the same Liverpool hubris that means we can beat Top 4ish teams but not low mid-table teams.
In truth, the Vardy/Mahrez engine is what keeps my fantasy team's engine running.
(Go Foxes. Win all teh dreamz.)
posted by robocop is bleeding at 5:48 PM on February 12, 2016
In truth, the Vardy/Mahrez engine is what keeps my fantasy team's engine running.
(Go Foxes. Win all teh dreamz.)
posted by robocop is bleeding at 5:48 PM on February 12, 2016
Arsenal supporter here, I reckon the Gunners will win fairly handily this Sunday. That being said Leicester deserve a massive amount of credit this season for taking advantage of weakness in the top 5 PL sides. Chelsea is a shambles, Liverpool is mediocre, City clearly don't care, United are awful and Arsenal are pulling an Arsenal.
Spuds and Leicester are definitely hitting above their weight class.
posted by vuron at 5:53 PM on February 12, 2016 [4 favorites]
Spuds and Leicester are definitely hitting above their weight class.
posted by vuron at 5:53 PM on February 12, 2016 [4 favorites]
If Leicester manage to win the League this year, the total theoretical earnings represented by the number of people who claim to know someone who put money on them at the start of the season will exceed the GDP of Scotland.
posted by TheWhiteSkull at 6:17 PM on February 12, 2016 [5 favorites]
posted by TheWhiteSkull at 6:17 PM on February 12, 2016 [5 favorites]
As a new EPL fan this has been amazing to watch. Of course, I ended up falling for Southampton, because I can never do the easy thing.
posted by COD at 6:49 PM on February 12, 2016 [1 favorite]
posted by COD at 6:49 PM on February 12, 2016 [1 favorite]
Pretty amazing time for soccer in general, what with Messi and Lewandowski
posted by destro at 7:16 PM on February 12, 2016
posted by destro at 7:16 PM on February 12, 2016
i'm glad this has been posted to the "blue" (pardon the pun), but i'd have to disagree "it would be the biggest upset in sports history." it would be an incredible shock, and i'm not ashamed to admit i thought they'd be certainties for relegation this season especially with their appointment of journeyman manager ranieri in the summer. but, in some ways, this is what english football used to be like. nottingham forest, derby county spring to mind. one of the impacts of the premier league has been the consolidation of power of the top teams, but leicester winning the league could be the best thing that's happened in years. they've been the best team this season; it's no fluke. and they actually seem to be getting better in recent weeks. the only downside of them winning the title is that crisp muncher gary lineker (a former leicester city player and lifetime supporter) promised to present match of the day next season in his underwear if they did.
posted by iboxifoo at 9:53 PM on February 12, 2016 [4 favorites]
posted by iboxifoo at 9:53 PM on February 12, 2016 [4 favorites]
Lots of Gooners think this will be an easy win. I'm not so sure. Overall, somehow City will finish ahead of the Foxes and Arsenal, because evil always wins in the end.
posted by persona au gratin at 12:14 AM on February 13, 2016
posted by persona au gratin at 12:14 AM on February 13, 2016
I'm a Liverpool supporter, but...
I would fucking LOVE it if Leicester won this year /Keegan
Also, too bad the Tinkerman can't seal it with a victory in front of Mou anymore, because that would have been priceless (CFC and LCFC are playing May 15).
posted by modernnomad at 12:30 AM on February 13, 2016
I would fucking LOVE it if Leicester won this year /Keegan
Also, too bad the Tinkerman can't seal it with a victory in front of Mou anymore, because that would have been priceless (CFC and LCFC are playing May 15).
posted by modernnomad at 12:30 AM on February 13, 2016
modernnomad:
A) ynwa
B) I too am rooting for the Foxes. Though if Spurs or Arsenal won it I'd not be upset. The Reds need to...do something different.
posted by persona au gratin at 12:33 AM on February 13, 2016 [3 favorites]
A) ynwa
B) I too am rooting for the Foxes. Though if Spurs or Arsenal won it I'd not be upset. The Reds need to...do something different.
posted by persona au gratin at 12:33 AM on February 13, 2016 [3 favorites]
In our (USian) house, it started with youth soccer --> going to lots of MLS (Sounders) games --> playing lots FIFA on Xbox --> arguing over teams with oldest brother always getting his first choice, first Chelsea, then Arsenal, and most recently Liverpool --> youngest brother eventually settling on Leicester City --> watching Leicester City gradually climb in the rankings --> now Leicester is youngest brother's parentally-protected team when we play --> entire family going apeshit when they beat Manchester last week.
It turns out we probably are going to London this spring break and you better believe we will make it to a Leicester City game if we do, despite being sold out already.
posted by Slarty Bartfast at 1:04 AM on February 13, 2016 [4 favorites]
It turns out we probably are going to London this spring break and you better believe we will make it to a Leicester City game if we do, despite being sold out already.
posted by Slarty Bartfast at 1:04 AM on February 13, 2016 [4 favorites]
Regarding the unlikelyness of Leicester's rise - it should also be noted that this time last season they were bottom of the premiership and pretty much universally dismissed as having no hope of not being relegated. To go from bottom to not just challenging the old guard top 4 (/6) but comprehensively outplaying them is incomprehensible!
And without a big money funds injection, which makes it all the more fantastic for the long term excitement of the premier league.
For those who don't know two of their players also represent a microcosm of the Leicester story themselves.
Riyad Mahrez, a French Algerian midfielder, was bought from a second tier French team for £400k and is now widely tipped to be player of the season, with 'a hand in place of his left foot'. He is also the mainstay of every successful fantasy football league this season. 14 goals and 10 assists in 24 appearances!
Jamie Vardy is a striker who was playing non league football as recently as 2012, and now is the top scorer in the premier league, equalled the record of most consecutive games with a goal, oh and probably scored the goal of the season last week at Liverpool. His pace ('he is so full of energy he could generate electricity') and forthright attacking style are a pleasure to watch and clearly terrify the defenders he comes up against.
And of course he would probably like to be played by Brad Pitt in the eventual film.
posted by Albondiga at 1:56 AM on February 13, 2016 [2 favorites]
And without a big money funds injection, which makes it all the more fantastic for the long term excitement of the premier league.
For those who don't know two of their players also represent a microcosm of the Leicester story themselves.
Riyad Mahrez, a French Algerian midfielder, was bought from a second tier French team for £400k and is now widely tipped to be player of the season, with 'a hand in place of his left foot'. He is also the mainstay of every successful fantasy football league this season. 14 goals and 10 assists in 24 appearances!
Jamie Vardy is a striker who was playing non league football as recently as 2012, and now is the top scorer in the premier league, equalled the record of most consecutive games with a goal, oh and probably scored the goal of the season last week at Liverpool. His pace ('he is so full of energy he could generate electricity') and forthright attacking style are a pleasure to watch and clearly terrify the defenders he comes up against.
And of course he would probably like to be played by Brad Pitt in the eventual film.
posted by Albondiga at 1:56 AM on February 13, 2016 [2 favorites]
I hate to be that guy but I guess someone has to note that Vardy has a problematic record with regard to race.
posted by juv3nal at 2:06 AM on February 13, 2016 [1 favorite]
posted by juv3nal at 2:06 AM on February 13, 2016 [1 favorite]
Speaking as a Spurs fan and considering how this season has played out, the champion should be either Leicester or Spurs because they're the only teams at the top that are playing above their level. Arsenal, Man City, Man Utd and Chelsea have been laughable at various parts of the season so far, the last two more of a running joke.
posted by lmfsilva at 2:14 AM on February 13, 2016
posted by lmfsilva at 2:14 AM on February 13, 2016
This writeup was pretty detailed and readable too (Reddit, non-journalist author).
posted by iffthen at 2:16 AM on February 13, 2016
posted by iffthen at 2:16 AM on February 13, 2016
And who scored for Leicester, the day after Richard III was buried? A(ndy) King.
posted by TheRaven at 2:58 AM on February 13, 2016
posted by TheRaven at 2:58 AM on February 13, 2016
Gooner all the way to my red-and-white beating cannon heart, but Leicester winning the league would be an incredible achievement. Of course, being Arsenal we'll probably bloody hand it to them in a towering display of pointlessness.
I'm not sure about the implications for the League, though: it will give the pundits ammunition for the "best league in the world' nonsense, ignoring the hideous inequities of the system itself and that it has literally taken the massive money-spinners collapsing on themselves in a heap of terrible management to get to this point. We need real Financial Fair Play, and actual checks on the lunatic spending of glory-hunting club owners.
As for this being "Tottenham's Year" for the 55th year running, well... St. Totteringham's Day may be late, but it will come. And your badge is a cock on a potato. ON A POTATO.
posted by prismatic7 at 3:43 AM on February 13, 2016 [9 favorites]
I'm not sure about the implications for the League, though: it will give the pundits ammunition for the "best league in the world' nonsense, ignoring the hideous inequities of the system itself and that it has literally taken the massive money-spinners collapsing on themselves in a heap of terrible management to get to this point. We need real Financial Fair Play, and actual checks on the lunatic spending of glory-hunting club owners.
As for this being "Tottenham's Year" for the 55th year running, well... St. Totteringham's Day may be late, but it will come. And your badge is a cock on a potato. ON A POTATO.
posted by prismatic7 at 3:43 AM on February 13, 2016 [9 favorites]
Despite living in and around the East Mids most of my life I've not paid that much attention to The Foxes... more of an Imp if anything (oh dear god what an unending tragicomedy that's been)
Still I was in Leicester for a weekend last year (and the train home had some fans on it)... plus the guy that used to cut my hair was a big fan, scarf above the mirror. So I'm totally jumping on this bandwagon.
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 3:54 AM on February 13, 2016 [1 favorite]
Still I was in Leicester for a weekend last year (and the train home had some fans on it)... plus the guy that used to cut my hair was a big fan, scarf above the mirror. So I'm totally jumping on this bandwagon.
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 3:54 AM on February 13, 2016 [1 favorite]
Nottingham Forest, Derby County spring to mind.
OK, East Midlanders, we get it. In unrelated news, does anyone else find it ineffably sad that at the end of the season there will only be 6 teams which have been in the Premier League since it was founded? Anyone? Do we have any Brummies in the room? Maybe even just people who are worried that Davie Cameron's so upset about his team's performance he's taking it out on the whole country. Surely there's time to get upset about Villa's woeful last few seasons, right.
posted by ambrosen at 5:14 AM on February 13, 2016
OK, East Midlanders, we get it. In unrelated news, does anyone else find it ineffably sad that at the end of the season there will only be 6 teams which have been in the Premier League since it was founded? Anyone? Do we have any Brummies in the room? Maybe even just people who are worried that Davie Cameron's so upset about his team's performance he's taking it out on the whole country. Surely there's time to get upset about Villa's woeful last few seasons, right.
posted by ambrosen at 5:14 AM on February 13, 2016
I'm not sure Dave knows which team he supports
Nottingham Forest, Derby County spring to mind.
Glory days indeed, but possibly the never to be repeared outlying genius of Brian Clough (and Peter Taylor) had a big influence on that
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 5:47 AM on February 13, 2016
Nottingham Forest, Derby County spring to mind.
Glory days indeed, but possibly the never to be repeared outlying genius of Brian Clough (and Peter Taylor) had a big influence on that
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 5:47 AM on February 13, 2016
Of course he knows who he supports. Lynton Crosby told him the Feng Shui of claret & blue was the best, so he became a lifelong fan of The Clarets and The Blues. Then somebody realised that Tony Blair was ridiculed for his holidays in Tuscan villas and anyway it seemed churlish to force the prime minister to have a lifelong love of something he didn't really care about, so they decided that he had to declare his love for ham. Simple.
I wonder if the days of Cloughs really are over, though. I mean, he was a legend, but people like that turn up once every few decades, surely?
posted by ambrosen at 6:23 AM on February 13, 2016
I wonder if the days of Cloughs really are over, though. I mean, he was a legend, but people like that turn up once every few decades, surely?
posted by ambrosen at 6:23 AM on February 13, 2016
I'm not sure Dave knows which team he supports
It was West Ham he got confused with wasn't it? So Ambrosen's point is doubly true given that Dave seems determined to utterly kill off any remnant of social housing in London.
Back on topic: The Sunderland vs Manchester United match is once again showing that without De Gea, United would be battling Chelsea for 14th in the league right now.
posted by garius at 6:25 AM on February 13, 2016
It was West Ham he got confused with wasn't it? So Ambrosen's point is doubly true given that Dave seems determined to utterly kill off any remnant of social housing in London.
Back on topic: The Sunderland vs Manchester United match is once again showing that without De Gea, United would be battling Chelsea for 14th in the league right now.
posted by garius at 6:25 AM on February 13, 2016
In unrelated news, does anyone else find it ineffably sad that at the end of the season there will only be 6 teams which have been in the Premier League since it was founded?
Yeah, same to you, pal.
I would love to enjoy Leicester upsetting the league, if not for Villa fucking things up like usual.
posted by MartinWisse at 6:57 AM on February 13, 2016 [1 favorite]
Yeah, same to you, pal.
I would love to enjoy Leicester upsetting the league, if not for Villa fucking things up like usual.
posted by MartinWisse at 6:57 AM on February 13, 2016 [1 favorite]
The premier League is basically 3 leagues in one. First there are the elite London and Manc clubs and Liverpool that are perpetually fighting for CL spots. Then there are the mid table rabble. Finally you have the championship squads that get a temporary glimpse of the good life. You might have a temporary upset of the natural order but inevitably a full slate of CL or God forbid EL matches the following season ensures a return to the mean.
posted by vuron at 7:40 AM on February 13, 2016
posted by vuron at 7:40 AM on February 13, 2016
To be honest, I'm not sure which I'm going to enjoy more at the end of the season: seeing Leicester sock it to the big boys, or seeing Villa going down.
Only joking. I'm going to piss myself laughing when Villa's relegation is confirmed.
posted by salmacis at 4:18 PM on February 13, 2016
Only joking. I'm going to piss myself laughing when Villa's relegation is confirmed.
posted by salmacis at 4:18 PM on February 13, 2016
Anyone watching the game?
posted by prismatic7 at 4:10 AM on February 14, 2016
posted by prismatic7 at 4:10 AM on February 14, 2016
Not watching, but I've got The Guardian's commentary open in a tab
posted by ambrosen at 4:41 AM on February 14, 2016
posted by ambrosen at 4:41 AM on February 14, 2016
ditto (and penalty...)
posted by andrewcooke at 4:46 AM on February 14, 2016
posted by andrewcooke at 4:46 AM on February 14, 2016
Depressing, isn't it?
posted by prismatic7 at 4:46 AM on February 14, 2016
posted by prismatic7 at 4:46 AM on February 14, 2016
Arsenal had a quite legitimate claim for a penalty early in the game also, but, well ... Rooting for Leicester here anyway. Although if Arsenal took the title I wouldn't mind either. City and Spurs later today also. It's going to be a very football-filled Valentine's.
posted by sapagan at 5:03 AM on February 14, 2016
posted by sapagan at 5:03 AM on February 14, 2016
Wow! At the death!
I wanted Leicester to win, but IMO Vardy's pen was a dive.
posted by zakur at 5:54 AM on February 14, 2016 [2 favorites]
I wanted Leicester to win, but IMO Vardy's pen was a dive.
posted by zakur at 5:54 AM on February 14, 2016 [2 favorites]
Welbeck is top lad. Ozil with the last second assist. Crazy ending and deserved result tbh. Interesting enough though Leicester could still end up winning the league.
posted by vuron at 6:30 AM on February 14, 2016
posted by vuron at 6:30 AM on February 14, 2016
Anybody that thinks soccer isn't exciting didn't watch the last 20-30 minutes of LC vs. Aresnal. Holy crap! Also, salmacis, you can probably go ahead and piss yourself now :)
posted by COD at 1:34 PM on February 14, 2016 [1 favorite]
posted by COD at 1:34 PM on February 14, 2016 [1 favorite]
WELBECK! You magnificent bastard!
posted by Cool Papa Bell at 4:18 PM on February 14, 2016
posted by Cool Papa Bell at 4:18 PM on February 14, 2016
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