The end of American democracy is unimaginable.
February 4, 2022 9:14 AM   Subscribe

 
The piece feels rather incomplete insofar as it's looking only forward. It doesn't mention how the Republicans stole the election for Bush in 2000. Or how Brian Kemp presided over his own gubernatorial election in Georgia in 2018 to steal it from Stacey Abrams.

It's very imaginable, because it's been going on around us for 2+ decades (or the entirety of American history, depending on how we count voter suppression).
posted by explosion at 9:29 AM on February 4, 2022 [31 favorites]


Everything about this seems totally plausible. I think what will really be the thing to watch is what happens with the concept of federalism. We're already seeing versions of this play out when Republican controlled state legislatures try to preempt progressive municipal legislation. For example...

The big difference between the coming struggle and that of the Civil Rights era is the role of the national government. Civil rights activists sought the involvement of the national government and the Supreme court to override racism at the state and local level, epitomized by the campaigns in cities like Montgomery and Selma

In the coming years, those roles will be reversed. The residents of cities and metro areas more generally will be overwhelmingly opposed to the national and state governments, which will rely on the support of exurban and rural voters.


This is one part I think really deserves some more intense historical grappling - it's worth considering how much things like the Fugitive Slave Act embodied similar contradictions prior to the Civil War, in which the will of authoritarian white supremacist politics wielded in Congress overrode localized abolitionist politics.

I've been thinking about this tweet a lot since I read it.
posted by mostly vowels at 9:40 AM on February 4, 2022 [10 favorites]


There's no reason the same resistance can't be sustained in the cause of democracy."

As evidenced by Rittenhouse, the reason is because they will kill people. They'll do this anyway but I think thats distinction here between reconstruction Redeemers and left-leaning resisters. The resistors will not be as safe as the redeemers.

A lot of people that local PD will say fell out of windows or shot themselves in the knees and head a half dozen times.
posted by Slackermagee at 10:14 AM on February 4, 2022 [9 favorites]


So, what happens is, Americans refuse to work for our new fascist overlords, and in some ways, that has begun. However, the new control of opposing information will put a lot of wordsmiths out of platforms, and into work camps, prisons, manufacturing ammo for the private armies who will guard Republican's rights to profit, oil company's rights to do whatever, extraction company's rights, chemical company's rights. Wait, that has happened already, and then the fighting will begin in earnest when everyone's lives no longer matter.

After the Republicans have won the civil war, and there are no more, new, poor, Americans to work for them, they will look for slaves abroad, and the Republican lock on the legal system will make slavery law again through debt punishment, and fees to relocate into the US. The fees will be so high, it will take generations to repay, out from under slavery / debt punishment. To a great extent, this is already in place.

We are already full on "Manchurian Candidate," in the sense that if Americns are not outright rewarded with drugs, including ethanol; Americans are rewarded with carefully inserted opinion, that is in some senses much more addictive, because, they think, that what they think; what they believe, they came up with, themselves. They think they will take up guns. They don't realize they are just protecting their right to be poor slaves of industry, poor dirt farmers, poor convenience store workers. The difference is, they feel great about it, because they are fighting whatever evil has been carefully crafted for them to oppose, by those far out of reach in tall architecture, on lakes, on beaches, in board rooms, and bunkers. This sovereign army won't even smell their perfume, except to ask if the gin was cold enough, was the tea warm enough, may your child come speak with you? Oh wait, this is also in the now, not near future.

Don't get me started on what "education," will be like, or "reeducation." I think burial will be the new standard for reeducation.
posted by Oyéah at 10:15 AM on February 4, 2022 [16 favorites]


this seems realistic until the day the alt-right radicals decide they have been somehow betrayed by trump - or decide to block things that the business lobby wants to have happen

the long term likelihood is some kind of more obvious certer-right, corporate fascism - those who don't make too many waves or are willing to accept buy offs will be tolerated, others won't

at some point, though, it could very well be like the article - but things would move on from that

it could be very much like the troubles
posted by pyramid termite at 10:17 AM on February 4, 2022 [1 favorite]


"There's no way to delay that trouble comin' every day, blow your harmonica, son."
Frank Zappa
posted by Oyéah at 10:27 AM on February 4, 2022 [3 favorites]


I read TFA, it's interesting. But I'm here puzzling about "over the fold". I'm familiar with Above and Below, but not Over - so of course I asked google and got: a (yarn) spinning term, a (joke?) twitter account, and a song. My interpretation is that the author thought it was just long i.e. "it won't fit Above or Below, so it'll run Over" but there's nothing confirming that.

I look up weird phrases like this because maybe it's a term of art, or possibly a dog whistle? I just don't know.
posted by achrise at 10:28 AM on February 4, 2022 [3 favorites]


Fascism isn’t coming
posted by robbyrobs at 11:46 on February 4


That piece was published June 7th of last year and written by a British Tory. I think we've learned enough since then to know that there was a serious threat to our democracy, and that threat is greater than ever.
posted by Grumpy old geek at 10:32 AM on February 4, 2022 [7 favorites]


"So, the post-democratic USA will be one which the great majority of educated urban dwellers, and the majority of employed workers, will be alienated from a government of crony capitalists like Trump, kept in power by ignorant and bigoted voters, stereotypically old and rural."

We're kinda already there, no?
posted by chasing at 10:43 AM on February 4, 2022 [13 favorites]


See you all on the barricades.
posted by AJScease at 10:47 AM on February 4, 2022 [6 favorites]


There's no reason the same resistance can't be sustained in the cause of democracy."

As evidenced by Rittenhouse, the reason is because they will kill people. They'll do this anyway but I think thats distinction here between reconstruction Redeemers and left-leaning resisters. The resistors will not be as safe as the redeemers.

A lot of people that local PD will say fell out of windows or shot themselves in the knees and head a half dozen times.


The "same resistance" referred to by that line is the U.S. civil rights movement, in which many, many people were killed, a lot of them by police with only the thinnest of cover stories. The movement continued and while we obviously can't say "succeeded," achieved many victories in spite of this. So like, if your argument is that the U.S. left can't possibly mount a resistance because this time, we'll be killed, well, I got news for you about literally every resistance ever.
posted by We put our faith in Blast Hardcheese at 11:01 AM on February 4, 2022 [27 favorites]


That was solely in reference to Redemeers. As far as I've read, and this was 17 years ago in US History, the Redeemers were not being taken into the woods and hung/shot/knifed.

The thumb has been on the scale favoring the right for a looooooong time
posted by Slackermagee at 11:04 AM on February 4, 2022 [1 favorite]


I think that what's missing here is the effect -- and uses -- of the pandemic. Resistance that isn't directly controlled by violence will be at least tamped down by proliferating virus. We can count on access to vaccines/boosters being limited once Trump is back in office, and any local containment measures still in place will be struck down by the courts. So the health system will continue to crumble and the labor force will suffer increasing sickness and disability. Add to that the destruction of public education, Roe (and then likely Griswold) and you have half of the population duly subjugated.
posted by Il etait une fois at 11:19 AM on February 4, 2022 [5 favorites]


For a piece on what a post-2024 America could be like, I found the piece strangely lacking in any real speculation on what that America would actually be like. It seemed to be building up to something like that, but then it left us with... urban and non-white folks are disaffected with a government in the hands of a bigoted minority.

OK, that's a start, but "what will America be like if the next couple elections go bad" is a question I need a lot more help than that answering. I'm thinking seriously about leaving the country if 2022 and 2024 go the way this guy is certain it will.
posted by gurple at 11:22 AM on February 4, 2022 [9 favorites]


"over the fold"

I think it comes originally from print newspapers in broadsheet format, which were folded horizontally in the middle... but he's using it (as a lot of people did at one point) to describe a feature of some classic blogging page layouts. Which is that on a home page or topic page, stories just have a title, a slug, and a few sentences, and for the rest you have to click through to a dedicated page for that story. He's assuming you are started to read from the home page, and if you want more, you need to click through.

I feel old.
posted by i_am_joe's_spleen at 11:35 AM on February 4, 2022 [4 favorites]


For a piece on what a post-2024 America could be like, I found the piece strangely lacking in any real speculation on what that America would actually be like. It seemed to be building up to something like that, but then it left us with... urban and non-white folks are disaffected with a government in the hands of a bigoted minority.

I felt the same way. I don’t buy the sense of inevitability in the premise, but even accepting that, I didn’t discover any great insight in the purported aftermath. I would have appreciated something that delved deeper into how many people would not be materially affected and how other groups absolutely would be. How the disparate outcomes might be leveraged to further denial and division. A token of things to look out for.
posted by meinvt at 11:49 AM on February 4, 2022 [2 favorites]


gurple: "what will America be like if the next couple elections go bad"

This has been the topic of a few recent discussions here. Timothy Snyder thinks the country will collapse into civil war. Another prediction is full-bore fascism.

I'm thinking seriously about leaving the country if 2022 and 2024 go the way this guy is certain it will.

I am already making preparations, and I encourage all my friends to do the same. Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.

I'm Jewish. As I wrote in my blog, "I was raised with the Holocaust looming like a distant mountain visible in the rearview mirror. I imagine this is true for most Jewish people my age. The car is turning around now."
posted by adamrice at 11:58 AM on February 4, 2022 [14 favorites]


What I haven’t seen is anyone discussing what the US would be like after a successful Trumpist (or other Republican) coup.

Maybe this is a minor quibble, but lots and lots of people - poor people, women and trans or other non-cis male people, non-white people, non-straight people - were talking about this round about Trump’s election in 2016, and have been comparing how reality matched up with predictions. Also, we can look at the history of other coups in countries that shared some similarities with the present-day US.
posted by eviemath at 12:09 PM on February 4, 2022 [4 favorites]


America is only technically a democracy at this point. Votes don't count as much as money.
posted by plasmatron7 at 12:26 PM on February 4, 2022 [4 favorites]


The "same resistance" referred to by that line is the U.S. civil rights movement, in which many, many people were killed, a lot of them by police with only the thinnest of cover stories. The movement continued and while we obviously can't say "succeeded," achieved many victories in spite of this. So like, if your argument is that the U.S. left can't possibly mount a resistance because this time, we'll be killed, well, I got news for you about literally every resistance ever.
We put our faith in Blast Hardcheese

But that's the point made above: the situation is completely different now. You can't count on the federal government, were it in the sway of people who agree with fascist policies. There won't be any landmark federal legislation, there won't be federal troops or U.S. Marshals sent in, etc. In fact, the exact opposite: out-of-state forces will come in to help quell unrest. And the general attitude to protests is now completely different. Whereas once images of violence to protestors might serve to shock the public, now a good segment of the public is either indifferent or actively cheering violent suppression. Several states have passed laws either limiting or removing liability for things like striking protestors with cars, for example.

Can resistance be sustained if not only is every force at every level from city to federal fighting them with zero regard to their lives, but the resulting deaths are ignored or celebrated by the people in power and those supporting them, and even private citizens are protected if they hurt those resisting?
posted by star gentle uterus at 12:40 PM on February 4, 2022 [7 favorites]


I would have appreciated something that delved deeper into how many people would not be materially affected and how other groups absolutely would be.

I'd imagine it would be continuation on the current trajectory of things getting gradually worse rather than immediate major changes (though I'm sure people in early 30s Germany thought the same thing): continued erosion of minority rights (especially sexual minorities), enshrining of Christian beliefs and mores in law, removal of business and environmental protections, etc. Honestly, I think the urban/rural divide depicted here is oberblown because materially things probably wouldn't change much for city dwellers not directly harmed by the preceding policies. If the fascists can maintain power there will probably be a transition period of urban unrest that would gradually die down as the new status quo settles in.
posted by star gentle uterus at 12:50 PM on February 4, 2022 [1 favorite]


It is much more upsetting to consider the best case scenarios. How remote those possibilities are, how little time they would buy.

Thinking about the worst case scenarios is almost relaxing in comparison.
posted by Vociva at 12:50 PM on February 4, 2022 [3 favorites]


Can resistance be sustained if not only is every force at every level from city to federal fighting them with zero regard to their lives, but the resulting deaths are ignored or celebrated by the people in power and those supporting them, and even private citizens are protected if they hurt those resisting?

Historically speaking, that has been the circumstances under which quite a lot of resistances have taken place. For US examples, consider the history of resistance to colonization by Native Americans, the resistance to slavery by Black people, the early labor movement pre-New Deal, and the gay rights movement up through the Reagan years or the ‘90s, for an incomplete list.
posted by eviemath at 1:06 PM on February 4, 2022 [2 favorites]


I don't get it. The essay seemed to make it very easy to imagine how U.S. democracy ends?
posted by Jonathan Livengood at 1:06 PM on February 4, 2022 [1 favorite]


For US examples, consider the history of resistance to colonization by Native Americans

That bodes ill.

But I do think there is a material difference now in attitudes toward protest actions. There seems to be a large chunk of the population who either don't care or are happy with violence against protesters and resistance. What good is willingness to fight tooth and nail to the end if the other side welcomes that and cheers your end on? When violence against resistors doesn't even need to be censored because it's celebrated?
posted by star gentle uterus at 1:22 PM on February 4, 2022 [2 favorites]


Most of the U.S. was very happy to see violence done to protesters in the '60s and '70s.
posted by CheesesOfBrazil at 1:24 PM on February 4, 2022 [16 favorites]


Can resistance be sustained if not only is every force at every level from city to federal fighting them with zero regard to their lives, but the resulting deaths are ignored or celebrated by the people in power and those supporting them, and even private citizens are protected if they hurt those resisting?

That's...what a "resistance" is? If you have the support of significant percentages of government and culture, enough that your life is respected and violence against you is punished, then what you are is the opposition.
posted by We put our faith in Blast Hardcheese at 1:43 PM on February 4, 2022 [5 favorites]


Kent State was still a shock. Today I can imagine conservatives being happy that brave officers put down a violent woke mob.
posted by star gentle uterus at 1:43 PM on February 4, 2022 [5 favorites]


Kent State was still a shock. Today I can imagine conservatives being happy that brave officers put down a violent woke mob.

Most of America at the time was happy for the same reasons and sided with the National Guard!
posted by Celatone at 1:46 PM on February 4, 2022 [12 favorites]


Ha... I guessed Quiggin from the post title.
posted by pompomtom at 2:38 PM on February 4, 2022


The resistors will not be as safe as the redeemers.

That's assuming that the resistors never get pissed off enough to start blowing shit up too. I never thought we'd have a civil war in my lifetime, but if the fascists actually take over (as seems all too likely) I doubt the left will just keep showing up with picket signs and pussy hats. Shit gets real in a hurry when your friends start getting "disappeared" or just beaten to death in the street.
posted by Ursula Hitler at 6:32 PM on February 4, 2022 [3 favorites]


I’m having a hard time writing a response, because I see American democracy ending in genocide (so clearly that I’m surprised the author didn’t mention it), and then I think, “Wait but American democracy started in genocide! There’s always been genocide, one way or another.” And then what’s the value of democracy at all? That we get to vote?

Hitler rose in a democracy. Everything he did was legal, and “good Germans” went along for the ride. I’ve mentioned on other threads the book Defying Hitler, Sebastian Haffner’s account of growing up in Germany between the World Wars. I read it about 10 years ago, was horrified then by the parallels to American life, and in the years since it’s just been “check … check … check”. (See also Philip Gourevitch’s We Wish to Inform You, about the Rwandan genocide.)

I’ll leave it there …
posted by anshuman at 6:48 PM on February 4, 2022 [2 favorites]


here won't be any landmark federal legislation, there won't be federal troops or U.S. Marshals sent in, etc.

There it is. The author wants to know what a post coup/resistance looks like. The author does not factor in the military. If the republic gets wiggy, then it would be a pronounceiemento.
somewhat dated: coup d'etat handbook pdf
posted by clavdivs at 7:26 PM on February 4, 2022


"The end of American democracy is unimaginable " — yet not infeasible. And we don’t have to imagine it because we can see it taking shape right before our eyes.
posted by jamjam at 9:21 PM on February 4, 2022 [2 favorites]


The author does not factor in the military...

The author also does not factor in the participation of outside forces, a mistake I'm seeing all over the place. We are a massive political, economic and ideological force on the global stage: even if the military cracks right down the middle and we start a true civil war, the rest of the world will not idly sit by while we destroy the economic advances of the 20th/21st century. Coalitions from the left (liberal) and right (authoritarian) aligned polities the world over would want to influence the outcome and would take measures to do so. The aftermath would be difficult to imagine, but I'd say, in addition to reading up on coup d'etats, it would be a good idea to read up on imperial critique and colonialism and post-colonialism.

We might be heading into a second colonial period in the US, as a politically and ideologically divided and de-militarized (but still economically viable and available-for-extraction) US would probably be preferable to the rest of the world than a total US civil war that tips the rest of the world into a destabilizing global depression.
posted by eclectist at 12:48 PM on February 5, 2022


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