Sterling pounded
September 26, 2022 10:28 PM Subscribe
The pound fell to record lows this week, prompted by a tax-break filled Tory budget.
Some mortgage lenders have temporarily withdrawn their products from the market in anticipation of rising interest rates and one economic commentator said investors view the Conservative Party as a 'doomsday cult'.
"The Deal" died under Johnson, the single most populist Tory in living memory. He made Cameron and May look tough and principled.
Now we've eerily similarly got Truss making Johnson look calculated and intelligent.
posted by Dysk at 11:17 PM on September 26, 2022 [9 favorites]
Now we've eerily similarly got Truss making Johnson look calculated and intelligent.
posted by Dysk at 11:17 PM on September 26, 2022 [9 favorites]
I too have the same questions. I know a thing or two about politics and tax policy, but I also know that conservatives *have* to have something else to offer other than tax cuts for any situation at all. Right?
I thought surely it was a joke when I read "New conservative PM, facing an omnicrisis, does the only thing conservatives seem to understand."
What's the devil's advocate argument for this?
posted by jragon at 11:25 PM on September 26, 2022 [2 favorites]
I thought surely it was a joke when I read "New conservative PM, facing an omnicrisis, does the only thing conservatives seem to understand."
What's the devil's advocate argument for this?
posted by jragon at 11:25 PM on September 26, 2022 [2 favorites]
This might be a useful bit of explanatory information for the cynically/realistically minded:
Hedge fund manager Crispin Odey, who once employed Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng as an analyst, reportedly made a killing on Friday, with his fund up 145 per cent on the back of bets against government debt. [...] Elsewhere, the Times has reported that hedge-fund managers who backed Liz Truss in the Tory leadership race have cashed in on the value of the pound sliding to record lows.
When our friends in the hedge funds win, we all win!
posted by robself at 11:36 PM on September 26, 2022 [25 favorites]
Hedge fund manager Crispin Odey, who once employed Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng as an analyst, reportedly made a killing on Friday, with his fund up 145 per cent on the back of bets against government debt. [...] Elsewhere, the Times has reported that hedge-fund managers who backed Liz Truss in the Tory leadership race have cashed in on the value of the pound sliding to record lows.
When our friends in the hedge funds win, we all win!
posted by robself at 11:36 PM on September 26, 2022 [25 favorites]
What's the devil's advocate argument for this?
Essentially, trickle-down economics. Here’s Truss talking about how we’re going to grow our way out of this and how she’s prepared to be unpopular.
posted by ukdanae at 11:37 PM on September 26, 2022 [14 favorites]
Essentially, trickle-down economics. Here’s Truss talking about how we’re going to grow our way out of this and how she’s prepared to be unpopular.
posted by ukdanae at 11:37 PM on September 26, 2022 [14 favorites]
The hedge fund thing isn't why this is happening, it's just hedge fund managers doing what they do - getting insider information from the Tories and investing accordingly. Truss isn't crashing the economy for them, they're just making hay whilst the sun shines, or er, storm rages. They'd just as happily have made their money backing the pound, if they thought it was going to rise.
posted by Dysk at 11:45 PM on September 26, 2022 [24 favorites]
posted by Dysk at 11:45 PM on September 26, 2022 [24 favorites]
Love to hear from somebody who is politically tuned in over there for some kind of window into this.
I recommend Sheffield based professor of economics, Richard Murphy - Both his blog and Twitter threads like this.
posted by rongorongo at 11:48 PM on September 26, 2022 [10 favorites]
I recommend Sheffield based professor of economics, Richard Murphy - Both his blog and Twitter threads like this.
posted by rongorongo at 11:48 PM on September 26, 2022 [10 favorites]
I think it's a failure of imagination to assume that anyone involved necessarily has the interests of the country, its people, its economy or even the Conservative party at heart.
People talk about "trickle down economics" as if the proponents seriously intend regular people to benefit from it, rather than that the "trickle" is designed to keep the large part of the population in their place and controllable.
It's also not completely obvious that any of these politicians are acting on their own account rather than as patsies for some third party, who for all we know might be actively trying to reduce British influence by causing a permanent state of crisis. Or just to line their own pockets while not having to live here.
posted by quacks like a duck at 11:56 PM on September 26, 2022 [12 favorites]
People talk about "trickle down economics" as if the proponents seriously intend regular people to benefit from it, rather than that the "trickle" is designed to keep the large part of the population in their place and controllable.
It's also not completely obvious that any of these politicians are acting on their own account rather than as patsies for some third party, who for all we know might be actively trying to reduce British influence by causing a permanent state of crisis. Or just to line their own pockets while not having to live here.
posted by quacks like a duck at 11:56 PM on September 26, 2022 [12 favorites]
The excellent Oh God What Now podcast had an (off the record) story in a recent episode (their recent live show?); the premise is that senior bureaucrats often like to 'manage' their elected ministers. They'll present three options to the minister in a given situation; the 'correct' one that the bureaucrat thinks should be done, and then the other two options are a terrible one and a bonkers option. They know that the minister will choose the correct one, but will feel like they got a choice.
They apparently had to stop doing this with Truss because she just always picked the bonkers one.
posted by Superilla at 12:00 AM on September 27, 2022 [62 favorites]
They apparently had to stop doing this with Truss because she just always picked the bonkers one.
posted by Superilla at 12:00 AM on September 27, 2022 [62 favorites]
It's also not completely obvious that any of these politicians are acting on their own account rather than as patsies for some third party
Who are you suggesting this might be? And what suggests to you that it may be the case? Because it isn't "completely obvious" for anyone, anywhere, ever - we cannot know people's motivations, only their words and actions. So like, unless there is actually some reason to believe this, it doesn't seem much more relevant than suggesting that Truss is actually a lizard person, or possessed by the recently-deceased QE2 or whatever.
posted by Dysk at 12:08 AM on September 27, 2022 [8 favorites]
Who are you suggesting this might be? And what suggests to you that it may be the case? Because it isn't "completely obvious" for anyone, anywhere, ever - we cannot know people's motivations, only their words and actions. So like, unless there is actually some reason to believe this, it doesn't seem much more relevant than suggesting that Truss is actually a lizard person, or possessed by the recently-deceased QE2 or whatever.
posted by Dysk at 12:08 AM on September 27, 2022 [8 favorites]
Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.
Truss and Kwarteng are just the most obvious examples of the lack of brains at higher levels of Tory leadership. They’re indoctrinated to think that neoliberal economics and conservative policies will fix things. Yes, they have banker friends and trust fund employers… but that’s just normal for their social class and outlook.
posted by The River Ivel at 12:09 AM on September 27, 2022 [14 favorites]
Truss and Kwarteng are just the most obvious examples of the lack of brains at higher levels of Tory leadership. They’re indoctrinated to think that neoliberal economics and conservative policies will fix things. Yes, they have banker friends and trust fund employers… but that’s just normal for their social class and outlook.
posted by The River Ivel at 12:09 AM on September 27, 2022 [14 favorites]
I look forward to the Dr Chuck Tingle novel
posted by Jacen at 12:16 AM on September 27, 2022 [18 favorites]
posted by Jacen at 12:16 AM on September 27, 2022 [18 favorites]
Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.
Truss and Kwarteng are just the most obvious examples of the lack of brains at higher levels of Tory leadership.
Both Truss and Kwarteng seem to show a particular type of stupidity that has to be seen in the light of their educational and business record: Truss got into Oxford University, qualified as a chartered accountant and become Economic Director for Cable and Wireless (she has even written this book on mathematics) while Kwarteng got a first from Cambridge and then later a Phd in Economic History. So they are both people who, on paper at least, should know abundantly how money works. They are blisteringly stupid individuals who have a track record which shows that should not be the case. Why is that?
Where did that stupid come from? It seems that the 2011 book "Britannia Unchained" - authored by Truss, Kwarteng, Dominic Rabb and Priti Patel explains a lot: it has served as a template for Brexit and it is serving as a template for Truss's current policies. Truss, in particular, seems to have a stupidity which is honed by paying attention to whatever mad ideas somebody feeds her.
posted by rongorongo at 12:40 AM on September 27, 2022 [31 favorites]
Truss and Kwarteng are just the most obvious examples of the lack of brains at higher levels of Tory leadership.
Both Truss and Kwarteng seem to show a particular type of stupidity that has to be seen in the light of their educational and business record: Truss got into Oxford University, qualified as a chartered accountant and become Economic Director for Cable and Wireless (she has even written this book on mathematics) while Kwarteng got a first from Cambridge and then later a Phd in Economic History. So they are both people who, on paper at least, should know abundantly how money works. They are blisteringly stupid individuals who have a track record which shows that should not be the case. Why is that?
Where did that stupid come from? It seems that the 2011 book "Britannia Unchained" - authored by Truss, Kwarteng, Dominic Rabb and Priti Patel explains a lot: it has served as a template for Brexit and it is serving as a template for Truss's current policies. Truss, in particular, seems to have a stupidity which is honed by paying attention to whatever mad ideas somebody feeds her.
posted by rongorongo at 12:40 AM on September 27, 2022 [31 favorites]
I think the stupid goes deeper than that; the stupid is a combination of training to have confidence in their own opinions, and the kind of Ayn Rand brainwashing that you get from doing economics at an Oxbridge uni.
posted by The River Ivel at 12:50 AM on September 27, 2022 [14 favorites]
posted by The River Ivel at 12:50 AM on September 27, 2022 [14 favorites]
My plant groups have been flooded by people who are worried about keeping their babies alive without grow lights *because they can’t afford the electricity for low power lights because things are so bad in the UK*. I don’t imagine the pound tanking is going to alleviate that situation any, and I am worried for all my disabled friends who rely on very limited fixed incomes and often the ability to buy things abroad that aren’t available locally.
posted by Bottlecap at 1:27 AM on September 27, 2022 [14 favorites]
posted by Bottlecap at 1:27 AM on September 27, 2022 [14 favorites]
The other thing to remember about Kwarteng is that although he is from a middle-class family of African extraction he went to Eton on a scholarship - there are so many toxic things at play here - the sense of superiority from the scholarship, but the outsiderness that comes from being not only not-posh at Eton but also black, and the delusional Etonian mindset that even the lowliest pupil gets drummed into them on top of that - that one can only guess exactly how fucked in the head he must be. Pretty fucked, I'd say.
It struck me this morning - not for the first time, but I keep forgetting and remembering again - that the most apt way to think of the group of people who currently have control of the country is a cult.
I wonder how it's looking in Graham Brady's mailbox.
posted by Grangousier at 1:49 AM on September 27, 2022 [10 favorites]
It struck me this morning - not for the first time, but I keep forgetting and remembering again - that the most apt way to think of the group of people who currently have control of the country is a cult.
I wonder how it's looking in Graham Brady's mailbox.
posted by Grangousier at 1:49 AM on September 27, 2022 [10 favorites]
I was surprised to learn how poor the poor in Britain really are the other day, and this won't make it better, I suppose.
posted by Harald74 at 2:30 AM on September 27, 2022 [7 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 2:30 AM on September 27, 2022 [7 favorites]
What's the devil's advocate argument for this?
Truss and Kwarteng seem to listen to Patrick Minford who (of course) was also associated with Thatcher.
posted by scorbet at 2:50 AM on September 27, 2022 [1 favorite]
Truss and Kwarteng seem to listen to Patrick Minford who (of course) was also associated with Thatcher.
posted by scorbet at 2:50 AM on September 27, 2022 [1 favorite]
If you step away from the idea that governments are supposed to have the interests of the country and its people at heart or even the majority of its businesses it makes perfect sense. If your view of the world is that the state should be as small as possible and that there should be as little regulation as possible then you have a clear red line from Brexit to this week.
By depriving government of income they are depriving it of its ability to create or implement sensible regulation including collecting taxes, of supporting people who need support, of funding the NHS...
You're also creating pressure for even more austerity because you need to balance the books eventually. And we know they won't balance them by taxing the rich or large corporations more. According to the Guardian today the government is planning to announce large scale measures to reduce regulation and some kind of plan to balance the books....I expect these plans to focus heavily on cutting public services and benefits even more and by taxing the working poor and those on moderate incomes more...whatever it will be, it won't make the lives of the majority of the population better.
And worst of all, these people have no electoral mandate. Best you can hope for is that she also faces votes of no confidence sooner rather than later and they will have to call a general election.
That being said - the above is largely consistent with a number of bits of analysis in the papers. My personal view is that they know they won't have long before they are voted out. So this is the last opportunity they have and they are going all in with tax cuts and de-regulation/corruption furthering measures recognizing that a new government would walk some of this back. But they won't be able to walk it all back. In the meantime, the powers that are spoon feeding them these policy ideas are able to make a killing. And once the current lot are no longer in charge, they'll have to face more constraints again. But it won't go back to pre-Brexit levels for a very long time. Any government picking up from this lot is going to have to pick its battles, not least because they will start out with a much reduced public service.
posted by koahiatamadl at 3:01 AM on September 27, 2022 [28 favorites]
By depriving government of income they are depriving it of its ability to create or implement sensible regulation including collecting taxes, of supporting people who need support, of funding the NHS...
You're also creating pressure for even more austerity because you need to balance the books eventually. And we know they won't balance them by taxing the rich or large corporations more. According to the Guardian today the government is planning to announce large scale measures to reduce regulation and some kind of plan to balance the books....I expect these plans to focus heavily on cutting public services and benefits even more and by taxing the working poor and those on moderate incomes more...whatever it will be, it won't make the lives of the majority of the population better.
And worst of all, these people have no electoral mandate. Best you can hope for is that she also faces votes of no confidence sooner rather than later and they will have to call a general election.
That being said - the above is largely consistent with a number of bits of analysis in the papers. My personal view is that they know they won't have long before they are voted out. So this is the last opportunity they have and they are going all in with tax cuts and de-regulation/corruption furthering measures recognizing that a new government would walk some of this back. But they won't be able to walk it all back. In the meantime, the powers that are spoon feeding them these policy ideas are able to make a killing. And once the current lot are no longer in charge, they'll have to face more constraints again. But it won't go back to pre-Brexit levels for a very long time. Any government picking up from this lot is going to have to pick its battles, not least because they will start out with a much reduced public service.
posted by koahiatamadl at 3:01 AM on September 27, 2022 [28 favorites]
Two descriptions of what working with Liz Truss is like - Rory Stewart on his podcast with Alastair Campbel The Rest is Politics (sorry for the Express, I couldn't find an official transcript ) and a second-hand account on twitter.
posted by scorbet at 3:10 AM on September 27, 2022 [10 favorites]
posted by scorbet at 3:10 AM on September 27, 2022 [10 favorites]
By depriving government of income they are depriving it of its ability to create or implement sensible regulation including collecting taxes, of supporting people who need support, of funding the NHS...
That would also tie in with the mad idea of free-for-all 'Investment Zones':
"Investment Zones will accelerate the housing and infrastructure the UK needs to drive economic growth. They will cut back unnecessary bureaucratic requirements and processes and red tape that slow down development, cut taxes to back business, and, as a result, attract new investment to create jobs." [x]
RSPB England: What the Government has proposed in today’s mini-budget on top of yesterday’s announcements potentially tears up the most fundamental legal protections our remaining wildlife has...
posted by Lanark at 3:29 AM on September 27, 2022 [7 favorites]
That would also tie in with the mad idea of free-for-all 'Investment Zones':
"Investment Zones will accelerate the housing and infrastructure the UK needs to drive economic growth. They will cut back unnecessary bureaucratic requirements and processes and red tape that slow down development, cut taxes to back business, and, as a result, attract new investment to create jobs." [x]
RSPB England: What the Government has proposed in today’s mini-budget on top of yesterday’s announcements potentially tears up the most fundamental legal protections our remaining wildlife has...
posted by Lanark at 3:29 AM on September 27, 2022 [7 favorites]
What happened to “the deal” conservatives have always abided by with business? Did it finally break under its own weight?
Did you hear about Brexit? They are stupid, but also live in a fantasy.
posted by mumimor at 3:38 AM on September 27, 2022 [11 favorites]
Did you hear about Brexit? They are stupid, but also live in a fantasy.
posted by mumimor at 3:38 AM on September 27, 2022 [11 favorites]
The deregulation is all part of the Retained EU Laws bill. Essentially, it removes all protections but puts nothing in their place:
The bill laid before parliament outlines how 570 environmental laws, and hundreds more covering every government department, including transport, health and social care, working hours and other areas, are being lined up to be removed from UK law or rewritten. These include the habitat regulations that have been vital in the protection of places for wildlife in the last 30 years and laws covering the release of nitrates and phosphates into rivers.Also:
The new Retained EU Law Bill today gives the govt extraordinary new deregulatory powers.posted by vacapinta at 3:39 AM on September 27, 2022 [13 favorites]
It would allow the government to revoke any piece of secondary retained EU law, without the need for an Act of Parliament....
This means the govt could remove key worker and environmental protections with minimal parliamentary scrutiny.
Working Time Regulations are at particular risk, which entitle workers to a maximum 48 hour working week, minimum rest periods, and 4 weeks’ paid annual leave
Also, two important dates:
November 23, 2022:
Kwarteng announces he'll set out his "medium term fiscal plan" on November 23 - with new details of fiscal rules and publication of OBR targets.
That's *eight weeks* away.
December 31, 2023:
Retained EU Law (Revocation and Reform) Bill"
This bill would shred every one of the thousands of retained EU laws at the stroke of midnight on 31 December 2023.
It means that businesses will have no idea what laws will apply, creating vast uncertainty.
posted by vacapinta at 3:56 AM on September 27, 2022 [11 favorites]
November 23, 2022:
Kwarteng announces he'll set out his "medium term fiscal plan" on November 23 - with new details of fiscal rules and publication of OBR targets.
That's *eight weeks* away.
December 31, 2023:
Retained EU Law (Revocation and Reform) Bill"
This bill would shred every one of the thousands of retained EU laws at the stroke of midnight on 31 December 2023.
It means that businesses will have no idea what laws will apply, creating vast uncertainty.
posted by vacapinta at 3:56 AM on September 27, 2022 [11 favorites]
I'm about as anti cryptocurrency as anyone (seriously: proof of work should be banned and promulagtors JAILED for the environmental crime) but I did lol at this
posted by lalochezia at 4:25 AM on September 27, 2022 [11 favorites]
posted by lalochezia at 4:25 AM on September 27, 2022 [11 favorites]
That being said - the above is largely consistent with a number of bits of analysis in the papers. My personal view is that they know they won't have long before they are voted out. So this is the last opportunity they have and they are going all in with tax cuts and de-regulation/corruption furthering measures recognizing that a new government would walk some of this back. But they won't be able to walk it all back. In the meantime, the powers that are spoon feeding them these policy ideas are able to make a killing. And once the current lot are no longer in charge, they'll have to face more constraints again. But it won't go back to pre-Brexit levels for a very long time. Any government picking up from this lot is going to have to pick its battles, not least because they will start out with a much reduced public service.
With the exception of the word "Brexit," you just described what the Republicans have been doing to the US at least since Reagan.
posted by Gelatin at 4:43 AM on September 27, 2022 [17 favorites]
With the exception of the word "Brexit," you just described what the Republicans have been doing to the US at least since Reagan.
posted by Gelatin at 4:43 AM on September 27, 2022 [17 favorites]
From the wikipedia link posted above about Britannia Unchained, the book apparently says:
The British are among the worst idlers in the world. We work among the lowest hours, we retire early and our productivity is poor.
I mean, it would be so easy to say:
The British have among the best quality of life in the world. We work among the lowest hours, and we retire early.
But their brand of freemarket sadism can only imagine working people as units of production to be maximised, rather than human beings whose lives are enriched by having the time to do things other than work.
And of course it's all thanks to the unions that we can work reasonable hours and retire before we're physically broken, so it must be a bad thing. /s
posted by penguin pie at 4:56 AM on September 27, 2022 [42 favorites]
The British are among the worst idlers in the world. We work among the lowest hours, we retire early and our productivity is poor.
I mean, it would be so easy to say:
The British have among the best quality of life in the world. We work among the lowest hours, and we retire early.
But their brand of freemarket sadism can only imagine working people as units of production to be maximised, rather than human beings whose lives are enriched by having the time to do things other than work.
And of course it's all thanks to the unions that we can work reasonable hours and retire before we're physically broken, so it must be a bad thing. /s
posted by penguin pie at 4:56 AM on September 27, 2022 [42 favorites]
Not to let Truss off the hook, but the USA is also playing a big role in the crisis. By pushing up USD interest rates, we force down the value of other currencies, and force them to raise their interest rates to keep, even if higher rates aren't what local conditions call for.
posted by Winnie the Proust at 4:58 AM on September 27, 2022 [6 favorites]
posted by Winnie the Proust at 4:58 AM on September 27, 2022 [6 favorites]
With the exception of the word "Brexit," you just described what the Republicans have been doing to the US at least since Reagan.
That’s one of the amazing things about neoliberal fiscal policies - it’s been tried so many times, it never works, and yet it’s adherents are totally certain that this time, this time, it’s going to make everybody rich. Undoubtedly there are some people who are just there to make bank, but they have a deep bench of true believers.
posted by The River Ivel at 4:59 AM on September 27, 2022 [25 favorites]
That’s one of the amazing things about neoliberal fiscal policies - it’s been tried so many times, it never works, and yet it’s adherents are totally certain that this time, this time, it’s going to make everybody rich. Undoubtedly there are some people who are just there to make bank, but they have a deep bench of true believers.
posted by The River Ivel at 4:59 AM on September 27, 2022 [25 favorites]
That’s one of the amazing things about neoliberal fiscal policies - it’s been tried so many times, it never works, and yet it’s adherents are totally certain that this time, this time, it’s going to make everybody rich. Undoubtedly there are some people who are just there to make bank, but they have a deep bench of true believers.
I strongly doubt they believe supply side economics will make everyone rich, but they are sure the policies are good for them and their friends. They also know they need to sell their policy of "you have to give up popular government services and regulations to make me and my friends rich" to the voters, so hey presto, false promises.
Not to derail into US politics, but it's worth noticing that Republicans barely bother to sell supply side economics on the merits any more; they just call anything else "socialism!" and hope for a galvanic response from their voters.
posted by Gelatin at 5:14 AM on September 27, 2022 [8 favorites]
I strongly doubt they believe supply side economics will make everyone rich, but they are sure the policies are good for them and their friends. They also know they need to sell their policy of "you have to give up popular government services and regulations to make me and my friends rich" to the voters, so hey presto, false promises.
Not to derail into US politics, but it's worth noticing that Republicans barely bother to sell supply side economics on the merits any more; they just call anything else "socialism!" and hope for a galvanic response from their voters.
posted by Gelatin at 5:14 AM on September 27, 2022 [8 favorites]
I just want to take a moment to rail against the conservatives for ruining the past 12 years:
- post-financial crisis austerity
- Brexit
- now this crap
- (and a special mention goes to their inability to un-screw the planning system, meaning no new homes could be built, the single greatest financial and public health issue facing all the generations and population segments who _don’t_ vote Tory.)
Almost my entire adult life so far has been overshadowed by appalling fiscal, regulatory and constitutional decisions. All of which was based on what was most convenient or desirable for the most extreme right wing of this party.
Every time there’s the hope of getting over the last crisis, they intentionally steer us straight into a new one. It boggles the mind.
I don’t want to play the game of liberal capitalism but if you’re going to make me, can you at least give me a chance by keeping the rules consistent? Every 3-5 years they find a new way to introduce an even harder mode.
posted by Probabilitics at 5:22 AM on September 27, 2022 [29 favorites]
- post-financial crisis austerity
- Brexit
- now this crap
- (and a special mention goes to their inability to un-screw the planning system, meaning no new homes could be built, the single greatest financial and public health issue facing all the generations and population segments who _don’t_ vote Tory.)
Almost my entire adult life so far has been overshadowed by appalling fiscal, regulatory and constitutional decisions. All of which was based on what was most convenient or desirable for the most extreme right wing of this party.
Every time there’s the hope of getting over the last crisis, they intentionally steer us straight into a new one. It boggles the mind.
I don’t want to play the game of liberal capitalism but if you’re going to make me, can you at least give me a chance by keeping the rules consistent? Every 3-5 years they find a new way to introduce an even harder mode.
posted by Probabilitics at 5:22 AM on September 27, 2022 [29 favorites]
It’s obviously not a fun time in the UK and I don’t want to make light, but does anyone remember Chris Morris’ show The Day Today? I was addicted to it, and their “Pound Stolen” segment came to mind today.
posted by honey-barbara at 5:45 AM on September 27, 2022 [7 favorites]
posted by honey-barbara at 5:45 AM on September 27, 2022 [7 favorites]
Via this tweet by Jolyon Maugham comes this extract from Kwarteng's book, War and Gold,. It was long so I've truncated parts, and bolded the sentence Maugham underlined:
I think they'd say they're looking to the third way, but...
posted by fabius at 5:56 AM on September 27, 2022 [8 favorites]
There are three ways by which debts can be reduced.
The first of these involves an outright repudiation. … A government may simply refuse to pay debts. This has never happened in the history of the United States at the level of the federal government. The last time Great Britain repudiated a portion of its debt was in the Stop of the Exchequer of 1672 …
The second way in which debts can be alleviated is by means of inflation. Governments can inflate their currencies to such a degree that debts incurred in those currencies become negligible. It is uncertain to what extent this course of action would be opposed by citizens whose hard-earned savings would thus be diminished in value. Such a course of inflation would be embarked upon surreptitiously, of course. No government could retain any credibility if it openly admitted to pursuing such a line of policy. As Keynes memorably wrote, 'By a continuing process of inflation, Governments can confiscate, secretly or unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens.' The important point is that such action would be 'secret or unobserved'.
The third way to fight debt is to grow out of it. … In the early 2010s, the prospects for significant economic growth in the advanced economies look less likely than was the case after 1945. …
I think they'd say they're looking to the third way, but...
posted by fabius at 5:56 AM on September 27, 2022 [8 favorites]
does anyone remember Chris Morris’ show The Day Today?
Remember it? Mate, it feels to me like we've been living inside one particularly bonkers marathon episode of it since 2016...
posted by tomsk at 6:12 AM on September 27, 2022 [21 favorites]
Remember it? Mate, it feels to me like we've been living inside one particularly bonkers marathon episode of it since 2016...
posted by tomsk at 6:12 AM on September 27, 2022 [21 favorites]
Who votes for this shit? Are people really that stupid, or is voting for hatred of others (brown, poor, whatever) so much more seductive than voting for things that make sense?
posted by Ickster at 6:15 AM on September 27, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by Ickster at 6:15 AM on September 27, 2022 [2 favorites]
More austerity is probably the one thing not to worry about. The recent sharp move in sterling is the market's vote that Truss will increase spending while cutting taxes, leading to vast deficits and sustained high inflation. If market participants thought the overall picture would be fiscally neutral, you'd see nothing like this kind of move.
And yes, as noted above, the broader move down of sterling and the Euro have been the result of the US Federal Reserve hiking the overnight rate and pushing up short term rates. Buying a US two year bond at 4.2% is pretty darn attractive compared to a lot of alternatives and you need to sell sterling and Euro and buy dollars to buy US bonds.
posted by MattD at 6:16 AM on September 27, 2022 [2 favorites]
And yes, as noted above, the broader move down of sterling and the Euro have been the result of the US Federal Reserve hiking the overnight rate and pushing up short term rates. Buying a US two year bond at 4.2% is pretty darn attractive compared to a lot of alternatives and you need to sell sterling and Euro and buy dollars to buy US bonds.
posted by MattD at 6:16 AM on September 27, 2022 [2 favorites]
The second way in which debts can be alleviated is by means of inflation
There's a missing step in that explanation, which is how you force the independent Bank of England to allow inflation.
More importantly, there's an assumption that Tories really care about limiting the debt. So they're conspiring to attempt that by secret nefarious means?
I don't think that's the gamble somehow. If they get to the end of two years, and the debt to gdp ratio has grown less than it would have otherwise, they won't care. They'll care if they've slashed taxes in a difficult-to-reverse way, or if they're re-elected for good performance.
I doubt its useful to claim "reduced" debt, after you've just put everyone's energy bills on the public tab. If you can get that far into the weeds, I bet you can find plenty of fancy ways to lie about it.
posted by sourcejedi at 6:21 AM on September 27, 2022 [2 favorites]
There's a missing step in that explanation, which is how you force the independent Bank of England to allow inflation.
More importantly, there's an assumption that Tories really care about limiting the debt. So they're conspiring to attempt that by secret nefarious means?
I don't think that's the gamble somehow. If they get to the end of two years, and the debt to gdp ratio has grown less than it would have otherwise, they won't care. They'll care if they've slashed taxes in a difficult-to-reverse way, or if they're re-elected for good performance.
I doubt its useful to claim "reduced" debt, after you've just put everyone's energy bills on the public tab. If you can get that far into the weeds, I bet you can find plenty of fancy ways to lie about it.
posted by sourcejedi at 6:21 AM on September 27, 2022 [2 favorites]
I just want to take a moment to rail against the conservatives for ruining the past 12 years
Don't forget to rail against Labour for failing to offer an alternative.
posted by Winnie the Proust at 6:34 AM on September 27, 2022 [3 favorites]
Don't forget to rail against Labour for failing to offer an alternative.
posted by Winnie the Proust at 6:34 AM on September 27, 2022 [3 favorites]
The recent sharp move in sterling is the market's vote...
The broader move down of sterling and the Euro have been the result of the US Federal Reserve hiking the overnight rate
MattD: You seem to want it both ways?
Austerity is on its way. I'm with the camp that the fall in Sterling was the result of moron risk premium. Further tax cuts are on the way in the goal of shrinking the state and of justifying cutback of public services but it will never be enough, never fiscally neutral.
I really hope that I am wrong, though.
posted by vacapinta at 6:38 AM on September 27, 2022
The broader move down of sterling and the Euro have been the result of the US Federal Reserve hiking the overnight rate
MattD: You seem to want it both ways?
Austerity is on its way. I'm with the camp that the fall in Sterling was the result of moron risk premium. Further tax cuts are on the way in the goal of shrinking the state and of justifying cutback of public services but it will never be enough, never fiscally neutral.
I really hope that I am wrong, though.
posted by vacapinta at 6:38 AM on September 27, 2022
The Richard Murphy links above are good. But also:
David Smith (Sunday Times economics editor): Welcome to Kwasi's world of push me-pull you economics.
Financial Times archive: Kwarteng has shaken investor confidence in the UK.
John McDonnell: Kwasi Kwarteng forgot that radicalism needs to be matched by credibility.
It's incredibly bizarre. The Bank of England think that inflation is the biggest problem for the UK. To combat that they are increasing interest rates to make borrowing more expensive, i.e. reducing the money supply.
The Chancellor thinks that low growth is the biggest problem for the UK. To combat that he is reducing tax rates, funded by borrowing, i.e. increasing the money supply.
Either of these are defensible policies. But there is a trade-off between growth and inflation-reduction. It makes no sense for both of these to happen at the same time.
Unles you're a mind-reader, there's no way to know for sure why this is being done. There are several explanations.
David Smith (Sunday Times economics editor): Welcome to Kwasi's world of push me-pull you economics.
Financial Times archive: Kwarteng has shaken investor confidence in the UK.
John McDonnell: Kwasi Kwarteng forgot that radicalism needs to be matched by credibility.
It's incredibly bizarre. The Bank of England think that inflation is the biggest problem for the UK. To combat that they are increasing interest rates to make borrowing more expensive, i.e. reducing the money supply.
The Chancellor thinks that low growth is the biggest problem for the UK. To combat that he is reducing tax rates, funded by borrowing, i.e. increasing the money supply.
Either of these are defensible policies. But there is a trade-off between growth and inflation-reduction. It makes no sense for both of these to happen at the same time.
Unles you're a mind-reader, there's no way to know for sure why this is being done. There are several explanations.
- They are sincere believers in Laffer-curve right-wing economics, and think the tax cuts will spur massive growth which will pay for the borrowing
- They are aware of the growth/inflation-reduction trade-off and going for growth, but aren't willing to admit that the inflationary consquences, so are choosing to borrow and hope they can create more money than the BoE can remove
- They think Labour will inevitably win the next election, and want to leave them with a debt bomb. Labour may need to implement austerity to solve the debt crisis, which they can blame Labour for
I jumped this particular ship in 2003, and have been watching with increasing horror as my former country becomes a walking corpse pecked to shreds by hedge-fund crows. It is pretty clear that the current government is a Trojan horse for all the worst huckster billionaires, kleptocrats and hedge-fund bottom-feeders to perform the ultimate disaster-capitalist dismemberment of the UK economy. Look no further than the proposed freeports and charter cities to see where this is going: creating a crisis where the 'solutions' are entirely the point.
posted by aeshnid at 6:46 AM on September 27, 2022 [22 favorites]
posted by aeshnid at 6:46 AM on September 27, 2022 [22 favorites]
The only reason I can imagine that they didn't call a general election is to take one final swipe at economic vandalism, knowing they are going to lose badly, and Truss is too dizzy from sudden elevation to realise she's holding the poisoned chalice.
posted by adept256 at 6:48 AM on September 27, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by adept256 at 6:48 AM on September 27, 2022 [3 favorites]
In response to:
Love to hear from somebody who is politically tuned in over there for some kind of window into this.
&
Who are you suggesting this might be?
Not mentioned in this thread, so far, is the role of opaquely funded "think thanks" in British politics and the corporate capture of the Conservative party.
It sometimes seems like Truss is reading from scripts prepared by corporate lobbyists - and that the scripts have been written for the US. "Think tank" lobbyists such as the Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA) - that Adam Curtis has mentioned a few times.
Mark Littlewood from the IEA is on British TV explaining what the Conservative government will do next.
Links:
IEA on UK TV (Twitter)
George Monbiot: Has Liz Truss handed power over to the extreme neoliberal thinktanks?
posted by Speculatist at 7:02 AM on September 27, 2022 [3 favorites]
Love to hear from somebody who is politically tuned in over there for some kind of window into this.
&
Who are you suggesting this might be?
Not mentioned in this thread, so far, is the role of opaquely funded "think thanks" in British politics and the corporate capture of the Conservative party.
It sometimes seems like Truss is reading from scripts prepared by corporate lobbyists - and that the scripts have been written for the US. "Think tank" lobbyists such as the Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA) - that Adam Curtis has mentioned a few times.
Mark Littlewood from the IEA is on British TV explaining what the Conservative government will do next.
Links:
IEA on UK TV (Twitter)
George Monbiot: Has Liz Truss handed power over to the extreme neoliberal thinktanks?
posted by Speculatist at 7:02 AM on September 27, 2022 [3 favorites]
If you believed in trickle down (which would be inexplicable at this point anyway), you would think you could find a way to send money directly to industries that were expanding, hiring, etc. But to cut the highest tax rate by 50% is just a gift to people who are already rich.
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 7:08 AM on September 27, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 7:08 AM on September 27, 2022 [1 favorite]
I think that what we may be seeing is the enablement of the Brexit opportunities that Rees-Mogg was tasked to find. I think there are opportunities for specific actors within UK society, and that the beneficiaries will not be you and me, but some bunch of rich people (surprise). These are not the sort of opportunities that could be shouted about, for the obvious reason. They are the opportunities to get rid of paid holidays, expect health and safety protections at work, basically all the good stuff that the Americans don't get, we will no longer get, to save someone some money while reducing quality (and possibly length) of life.
posted by biffa at 7:26 AM on September 27, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by biffa at 7:26 AM on September 27, 2022 [4 favorites]
I’m not on the side of the Tories here but “push-me pull-you economics” is pretty fucking racist.
posted by sixswitch at 7:39 AM on September 27, 2022
posted by sixswitch at 7:39 AM on September 27, 2022
Economic Director for Cable and Wireless
From 2000 to 2002 I worked for Cable & Wireless USA (reconstituted during that time as Cable & Wireless America before collapsing into bankruptcy) and I cannot say that the experience makes me think positively of Liz Truss' financial skills. C&W was not a well managed company, and it coasted on the profits from its many chartered monopolies where it could charge astonishingly high rates for terrible phone service. Anything that wasn't a cash cow lost money, usually quite a lot of it. If there was a chance to make a management mistake, C&W would make it every time.
posted by fedward at 7:45 AM on September 27, 2022 [3 favorites]
From 2000 to 2002 I worked for Cable & Wireless USA (reconstituted during that time as Cable & Wireless America before collapsing into bankruptcy) and I cannot say that the experience makes me think positively of Liz Truss' financial skills. C&W was not a well managed company, and it coasted on the profits from its many chartered monopolies where it could charge astonishingly high rates for terrible phone service. Anything that wasn't a cash cow lost money, usually quite a lot of it. If there was a chance to make a management mistake, C&W would make it every time.
posted by fedward at 7:45 AM on September 27, 2022 [3 favorites]
Jonathan Pie on the state of economics in the UK. SLYT
posted by Keith Talent at 8:20 AM on September 27, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by Keith Talent at 8:20 AM on September 27, 2022 [3 favorites]
I have friends in the UK that are constructing elaborate thermostat schedules so as to minimize the cost of heating (even going so far as to have it automatically turn down heating at lunch/dinnertime when they have to cook) and it's not even October. It's monstrous what the Conservatives have done/continue to do to the UK.
posted by rhymedirective at 8:48 AM on September 27, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by rhymedirective at 8:48 AM on September 27, 2022 [2 favorites]
Question from overseas: when & how might the UK get a new government?
posted by neuron at 8:51 AM on September 27, 2022
posted by neuron at 8:51 AM on September 27, 2022
Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.
Any sufficiently advanced stupidity is indistinguishable from malice.
posted by JohnFromGR at 8:55 AM on September 27, 2022 [45 favorites]
Any sufficiently advanced stupidity is indistinguishable from malice.
posted by JohnFromGR at 8:55 AM on September 27, 2022 [45 favorites]
Question from overseas: when & how might the UK get a new government?
An election is the only way to get the Conservative party out. A general election has to be held by January 2025 at the latest. The government can choose to hold one sooner, but would only do so if they think they can have a better chance of winning.
A Conservative Party leadership election could replace Liz Truss with another Conservative at any time. This is triggered by a sufficient number of no-confidence letters being sent to a committee head: apparently the letters have already started. Given that Liz Truss is worse than Boris Johnson who was worse than Theresa May who was worse than David Cameron, I for one am not looking forward to seeing how much lower they can go.
posted by TheophileEscargot at 9:02 AM on September 27, 2022 [11 favorites]
An election is the only way to get the Conservative party out. A general election has to be held by January 2025 at the latest. The government can choose to hold one sooner, but would only do so if they think they can have a better chance of winning.
A Conservative Party leadership election could replace Liz Truss with another Conservative at any time. This is triggered by a sufficient number of no-confidence letters being sent to a committee head: apparently the letters have already started. Given that Liz Truss is worse than Boris Johnson who was worse than Theresa May who was worse than David Cameron, I for one am not looking forward to seeing how much lower they can go.
posted by TheophileEscargot at 9:02 AM on September 27, 2022 [11 favorites]
Question from overseas: when & how might the UK get a new government?
twenty quid, same as in town
posted by lalochezia at 9:03 AM on September 27, 2022 [5 favorites]
Question from overseas: when & how might the UK get a new government?
Scotland may get a new government by virtue of leaving the UK (The Scottish government is waiting for the outcome of a UK Supreme Court decision, due next month, on whether it has the right to hold an independence referendum without the permission of Westminster. If the outcome of that decision is “you can” then the referendum will be held next October. If the outcome is “you can’t” then their proposal is to use the next general election as a de facto independence vote. )
posted by rongorongo at 9:23 AM on September 27, 2022 [7 favorites]
Scotland may get a new government by virtue of leaving the UK (The Scottish government is waiting for the outcome of a UK Supreme Court decision, due next month, on whether it has the right to hold an independence referendum without the permission of Westminster. If the outcome of that decision is “you can” then the referendum will be held next October. If the outcome is “you can’t” then their proposal is to use the next general election as a de facto independence vote. )
posted by rongorongo at 9:23 AM on September 27, 2022 [7 favorites]
I have friends in the UK that are constructing elaborate thermostat schedules so as to minimize the cost of heating (even going so far as to have it automatically turn down heating at lunch/dinnertime when they have to cook) and it's not even October. It's monstrous what the Conservatives have done/continue to do to the UK.
I'm sat under a blanket, wearing a housecoat (this is what I call a dressing gown when worn over clothes) as well as a jumper and two tops, with thick trousers and woolly socks. Our heating remains off. I'll have to go for tights as well when we hit single digits later in the week.
posted by Dysk at 9:59 AM on September 27, 2022 [18 favorites]
I'm sat under a blanket, wearing a housecoat (this is what I call a dressing gown when worn over clothes) as well as a jumper and two tops, with thick trousers and woolly socks. Our heating remains off. I'll have to go for tights as well when we hit single digits later in the week.
posted by Dysk at 9:59 AM on September 27, 2022 [18 favorites]
Misc lolz
https://twitter.com/AMOMARSDEN/status/1574446197728747522
https://twitter.com/JimMFelton/status/1574661273601691648?
https://twitter.com/PhantomPower14/status/1574476438543208457?
https://twitter.com/NickAnstead/status/1574516560978403353?
posted by lalochezia at 10:39 AM on September 27, 2022
https://twitter.com/AMOMARSDEN/status/1574446197728747522
https://twitter.com/JimMFelton/status/1574661273601691648?
https://twitter.com/PhantomPower14/status/1574476438543208457?
https://twitter.com/NickAnstead/status/1574516560978403353?
posted by lalochezia at 10:39 AM on September 27, 2022
This (from the FT) is just brutal:
So much of what Britain has done and thought in recent years makes sense if you assume it is a country of 330mn people with $20tn annual output. The idea that it could ever look the EU in the eye as an adversarial negotiator, for instance. Or the decision to grow picky about Chinese inward investment at the same time as forfeiting the European market. Or the bet that Washington was going to entertain a meaningful bilateral trade deal. Superpowers get to behave with such presumption.
Why does Britain think that it can, too? Don’t blame imperial nostalgia. (If it were that, France, Spain, the Netherlands, Belgium and Portugal would show the same hubris.) Blame the distorting effect of language. Because the UK’s governing class can follow US politics as easily as their own, they get lost in it. They elide the two countries. What doesn’t help is the freakish fact that Britain’s capital, where its elites live, is as big as any US city, despite the national population being a fifth of America’s. You can see why, from a London angle, the two nations seem comparable.
Reaganism without the dollar: this isn’t one woman’s arbitrary whim. It is the culmination of decades of (unreciprocated) US focus in a Robert Caro-hooked Westminster. You would think from British public discourse that Earth has two sovereign nations. If the NHS is fairer than the US healthcare model, it is the world’s best. If Elizabeth II was better than Donald Trump, monarchy beats republicanism tout court. People who can’t name a cabinet member in Paris or Berlin (where so much that affects Britain, from migrant flows to energy, is settled) will follow the US midterms in November. The EU is a, perhaps the, regulatory superpower in the world. UK politicos find Iowa more diverting.
posted by lattiboy at 11:20 AM on September 27, 2022 [38 favorites]
So much of what Britain has done and thought in recent years makes sense if you assume it is a country of 330mn people with $20tn annual output. The idea that it could ever look the EU in the eye as an adversarial negotiator, for instance. Or the decision to grow picky about Chinese inward investment at the same time as forfeiting the European market. Or the bet that Washington was going to entertain a meaningful bilateral trade deal. Superpowers get to behave with such presumption.
Why does Britain think that it can, too? Don’t blame imperial nostalgia. (If it were that, France, Spain, the Netherlands, Belgium and Portugal would show the same hubris.) Blame the distorting effect of language. Because the UK’s governing class can follow US politics as easily as their own, they get lost in it. They elide the two countries. What doesn’t help is the freakish fact that Britain’s capital, where its elites live, is as big as any US city, despite the national population being a fifth of America’s. You can see why, from a London angle, the two nations seem comparable.
Reaganism without the dollar: this isn’t one woman’s arbitrary whim. It is the culmination of decades of (unreciprocated) US focus in a Robert Caro-hooked Westminster. You would think from British public discourse that Earth has two sovereign nations. If the NHS is fairer than the US healthcare model, it is the world’s best. If Elizabeth II was better than Donald Trump, monarchy beats republicanism tout court. People who can’t name a cabinet member in Paris or Berlin (where so much that affects Britain, from migrant flows to energy, is settled) will follow the US midterms in November. The EU is a, perhaps the, regulatory superpower in the world. UK politicos find Iowa more diverting.
posted by lattiboy at 11:20 AM on September 27, 2022 [38 favorites]
Who's that by? I can't even see the byline through the paywall.
posted by Grangousier at 11:36 AM on September 27, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by Grangousier at 11:36 AM on September 27, 2022 [2 favorites]
Not to let Truss off the hook, but the USA is also playing a big role in the crisis.
The Yen and Canadian dollar are also down and a lot of that (maybe most?) is because of the high interest rates in the US.
posted by any portmanteau in a storm at 11:54 AM on September 27, 2022
The Yen and Canadian dollar are also down and a lot of that (maybe most?) is because of the high interest rates in the US.
posted by any portmanteau in a storm at 11:54 AM on September 27, 2022
That wasn't a snark or a complaint, by the way, the FT are completely entitled to their business model, I just wondered who it was?
posted by Grangousier at 11:58 AM on September 27, 2022
posted by Grangousier at 11:58 AM on September 27, 2022
@Grangousier it was Janan Ganesh
posted by Lanark at 12:03 PM on September 27, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Lanark at 12:03 PM on September 27, 2022 [1 favorite]
Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.
Never attribute to stupidity that which is adequately explained by greed.
Pump and dump is a thing. It's not usually done on a national level; governments aren't usually so brazen.
The tories have been very clear: Greed is good. The profit motive is the supreme moral code. They've been telling us this for years. As the old saying goes: You can have a big conspiracy, or you can have a secret conspiracy, but you cannot have a big secret conspiracy. This is not secret. They have been very open about their values.
posted by swr at 12:25 PM on September 27, 2022 [5 favorites]
Never attribute to stupidity that which is adequately explained by greed.
Pump and dump is a thing. It's not usually done on a national level; governments aren't usually so brazen.
The tories have been very clear: Greed is good. The profit motive is the supreme moral code. They've been telling us this for years. As the old saying goes: You can have a big conspiracy, or you can have a secret conspiracy, but you cannot have a big secret conspiracy. This is not secret. They have been very open about their values.
posted by swr at 12:25 PM on September 27, 2022 [5 favorites]
The Conservatives are lost in a fantasy world and a danger to the country. By David Gauke (former Conservative minister).
posted by TheophileEscargot at 12:31 PM on September 27, 2022
posted by TheophileEscargot at 12:31 PM on September 27, 2022
Given that Liz Truss is worse than Boris Johnson who was worse than Theresa May who was worse than David Cameron, I for one am not looking forward to seeing how much lower they can go.
The problem isn't that Truss is fundamentally worse than Johnson - she isn't. There isn't anything she's doing that Johnson would fundamentally disagree with. The only difference is that Johnson was at least smart enough to understand that doing these things would be fundamentally hard to sell to the British public, and Truss doesn't even have that basic level of political acumen.
This is mostly because of a longstanding pattern of conservatives drinking their own Kool-Aid. Originally, modern conservatives in the Reagan era understood that their policies were at best untested and at worst wouldn't work (at least not in the long run), but for them this was the tradeoff of getting their ideological goal, which was smaller government less able to interfere with privately controlled power. At this point, though, it's been generations of conservatives mostly coming up reading their own theory papers and their own news media, which say over and over again that these policies work, even when they plainly do not.
Liz Truss isn't lying when she says that her policies will grow the British economy and make everything better for everybody, because lies require an intent to deceive and she doesn't have that intent; she genuinely believes that satisfying her ideological goals will work on other levels for the general population, because she's been told that her entire life. At this point, a large chunk of conservative politics is simply the true believers.
posted by mightygodking at 1:00 PM on September 27, 2022 [23 favorites]
The problem isn't that Truss is fundamentally worse than Johnson - she isn't. There isn't anything she's doing that Johnson would fundamentally disagree with. The only difference is that Johnson was at least smart enough to understand that doing these things would be fundamentally hard to sell to the British public, and Truss doesn't even have that basic level of political acumen.
This is mostly because of a longstanding pattern of conservatives drinking their own Kool-Aid. Originally, modern conservatives in the Reagan era understood that their policies were at best untested and at worst wouldn't work (at least not in the long run), but for them this was the tradeoff of getting their ideological goal, which was smaller government less able to interfere with privately controlled power. At this point, though, it's been generations of conservatives mostly coming up reading their own theory papers and their own news media, which say over and over again that these policies work, even when they plainly do not.
Liz Truss isn't lying when she says that her policies will grow the British economy and make everything better for everybody, because lies require an intent to deceive and she doesn't have that intent; she genuinely believes that satisfying her ideological goals will work on other levels for the general population, because she's been told that her entire life. At this point, a large chunk of conservative politics is simply the true believers.
posted by mightygodking at 1:00 PM on September 27, 2022 [23 favorites]
I have to wonder how much better off England would immediately be if it banned anyone that attended Eton from holding elected office or government position.
posted by madhadron at 2:27 PM on September 27, 2022 [16 favorites]
posted by madhadron at 2:27 PM on September 27, 2022 [16 favorites]
You usually don’t see the IMF begging a G7 country to change course on a policy from the left, but here we are:
"Given elevated inflation pressures in many countries, including the UK, we do not recommend large and untargeted fiscal packages at this juncture, as it is important that fiscal policy does not work at cross purposes to monetary policy," the spokesperson said in the IMF's first public reaction.
"The nature of the UK measures will likely increase inequality," it added.
posted by lattiboy at 2:45 PM on September 27, 2022 [16 favorites]
"Given elevated inflation pressures in many countries, including the UK, we do not recommend large and untargeted fiscal packages at this juncture, as it is important that fiscal policy does not work at cross purposes to monetary policy," the spokesperson said in the IMF's first public reaction.
"The nature of the UK measures will likely increase inequality," it added.
posted by lattiboy at 2:45 PM on September 27, 2022 [16 favorites]
I started googling "sterling crisis 1" and was prompted with do many sterling crisis, apparently they have one every 10-20 years or so, usually (but not always) under a Tory govt.
There's even a wikipedia page listing them
posted by mbo at 2:50 PM on September 27, 2022 [1 favorite]
There's even a wikipedia page listing them
posted by mbo at 2:50 PM on September 27, 2022 [1 favorite]
The UK usually (but not always) has a Tory govt so the two happening at the same time doesn't necessarily mean much.
posted by any portmanteau in a storm at 3:02 PM on September 27, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by any portmanteau in a storm at 3:02 PM on September 27, 2022 [1 favorite]
I also know that conservatives *have* to have something else to offer other than tax cuts for any situation at all. Right?
Almost. Sometimes they add a selection of public asset sales and deregulation for the top table to share, with a platter of cold welfare cuts and cheesy slogans for everybody else.
posted by flabdablet at 3:09 PM on September 27, 2022 [4 favorites]
Almost. Sometimes they add a selection of public asset sales and deregulation for the top table to share, with a platter of cold welfare cuts and cheesy slogans for everybody else.
posted by flabdablet at 3:09 PM on September 27, 2022 [4 favorites]
"The nature of the UK measures will likely increase inequality," it added.
This is the goal. Conservative economic policies (whether UK Tory or US GOP) give lip service to economic growth but really the point is to direct economic rewards to the “right” group of people. Immiserate the plebes so they have no choice but to do what you demand. Then blame some nebulous “other” when it all goes to shit.
This is how economic policy in pretty much every third world dictatorship works. Good economic policy means everyone — even those you disagree with — will prosper. But with prosperity, your opponents will have the means to fight for what they want, which means sharing or losing power. Instead, get yours (because there will be more than enough for you) and the rest can suffer.
posted by Big Al 8000 at 4:04 PM on September 27, 2022 [11 favorites]
This is the goal. Conservative economic policies (whether UK Tory or US GOP) give lip service to economic growth but really the point is to direct economic rewards to the “right” group of people. Immiserate the plebes so they have no choice but to do what you demand. Then blame some nebulous “other” when it all goes to shit.
This is how economic policy in pretty much every third world dictatorship works. Good economic policy means everyone — even those you disagree with — will prosper. But with prosperity, your opponents will have the means to fight for what they want, which means sharing or losing power. Instead, get yours (because there will be more than enough for you) and the rest can suffer.
posted by Big Al 8000 at 4:04 PM on September 27, 2022 [11 favorites]
The current clique destroying the UK have one thing in common, the ERG European Research Group, on the face of it 'merely' extreme Libertarian, but underneath mainly Anglo-Catholic Dominionists, except Braveman (also a charter school founder and advocate) a member of a controversial Buddhist sect.
Dominion of all society is their sacred aim. Media generally avoid as look too Dan Browne, but is the culmination of a US evangelical project for global Dominion of "the seven mountains" since the 1950's. All that beast, Revelations stuff they pushed to the churches was solely projection.
British need to get on the streets in their millions and go all out as this bunch are capable of genocide. I was warned about this likelihood as a young child growing up in the UK so it is unsurprising.
posted by unearthed at 5:55 PM on September 27, 2022 [5 favorites]
Dominion of all society is their sacred aim. Media generally avoid as look too Dan Browne, but is the culmination of a US evangelical project for global Dominion of "the seven mountains" since the 1950's. All that beast, Revelations stuff they pushed to the churches was solely projection.
British need to get on the streets in their millions and go all out as this bunch are capable of genocide. I was warned about this likelihood as a young child growing up in the UK so it is unsurprising.
posted by unearthed at 5:55 PM on September 27, 2022 [5 favorites]
Are people really that stupid, or is voting for hatred of others (brown, poor, whatever) so much more seductive than voting for things that make sense?
Yes.
What's the devil's advocate argument for this?
A lot of it starts to make sense if you view government not as an imperfect good to be optimized, but as something intrinsically bad, perhaps even evil, that needs to be disassembled, smashed, drowned, destroyed; that it exists to hold back humans from their true potential, which is to dominate each other in a brutal, exploitative hierarchy, and that this hierarchy of violence-based domination is fundamentally the proper and correct order of things. Equality--of races, of cultures, of genders--is plainly and self-evidently a vile lie. In fact, most people are literal garbage, animals but with sin, just feeding and fucking and shitting and demanding they be cared for and listened to, while providing nothing but dead weight; holding back and slowing down the small fraction of Übermenschen truly capable of doing anything meaningful from dragging the mass of civilization forward. Government, in this view, is tolerable, a necessary evil, only insofar as it is necessary to keep the masses from rising up and ruining everything, and secondarily as a vehicle for personal enrichment (since it is illegitimate, stealing from it really isn't wrong).
While I can't say with confidence this is exactly the theory driving every conservative, and particularly in the US there's a virulent strain of revanchist antisecularism mixed with brain-dead Calvinist predestinationism that complicates things, it certainly seems to serve pretty well as a model. That is, if you imagine what someone who fervently believes what I described above to be true would do or want, it's generally predictive of what conservatives will be trying to do at any given time. Whether that's actually the code that's running in the wetware in their fucked-up Etonian skulls is, as far as I'm concerned, an uninteresting question (I confess that I am at heart an experimentalist, never a theoretician); "truth" to me is a model that predicts outcomes within bounds, and since this has done pretty well at predicting outcomes, it seems likely to be, if not "actually true" (what does that even mean), at least in the same general neighborhood.
posted by Kadin2048 at 7:27 PM on September 27, 2022 [25 favorites]
Yes.
What's the devil's advocate argument for this?
A lot of it starts to make sense if you view government not as an imperfect good to be optimized, but as something intrinsically bad, perhaps even evil, that needs to be disassembled, smashed, drowned, destroyed; that it exists to hold back humans from their true potential, which is to dominate each other in a brutal, exploitative hierarchy, and that this hierarchy of violence-based domination is fundamentally the proper and correct order of things. Equality--of races, of cultures, of genders--is plainly and self-evidently a vile lie. In fact, most people are literal garbage, animals but with sin, just feeding and fucking and shitting and demanding they be cared for and listened to, while providing nothing but dead weight; holding back and slowing down the small fraction of Übermenschen truly capable of doing anything meaningful from dragging the mass of civilization forward. Government, in this view, is tolerable, a necessary evil, only insofar as it is necessary to keep the masses from rising up and ruining everything, and secondarily as a vehicle for personal enrichment (since it is illegitimate, stealing from it really isn't wrong).
While I can't say with confidence this is exactly the theory driving every conservative, and particularly in the US there's a virulent strain of revanchist antisecularism mixed with brain-dead Calvinist predestinationism that complicates things, it certainly seems to serve pretty well as a model. That is, if you imagine what someone who fervently believes what I described above to be true would do or want, it's generally predictive of what conservatives will be trying to do at any given time. Whether that's actually the code that's running in the wetware in their fucked-up Etonian skulls is, as far as I'm concerned, an uninteresting question (I confess that I am at heart an experimentalist, never a theoretician); "truth" to me is a model that predicts outcomes within bounds, and since this has done pretty well at predicting outcomes, it seems likely to be, if not "actually true" (what does that even mean), at least in the same general neighborhood.
posted by Kadin2048 at 7:27 PM on September 27, 2022 [25 favorites]
This is how economic policy in pretty much every third world dictatorship works.
I would like to gently push back on the use of 'Third World' as a default pejorative.
posted by tavegyl at 12:47 AM on September 28, 2022 [7 favorites]
I would like to gently push back on the use of 'Third World' as a default pejorative.
posted by tavegyl at 12:47 AM on September 28, 2022 [7 favorites]
the ERG European Research Group, on the face of it 'merely' extreme Libertarian, but underneath mainly Anglo-Catholic Dominionists
I can't wait for the DUP to find out.
posted by Grangousier at 1:50 AM on September 28, 2022 [3 favorites]
I can't wait for the DUP to find out.
posted by Grangousier at 1:50 AM on September 28, 2022 [3 favorites]
Bank of England announces gilt market operation
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 3:55 AM on September 28, 2022 [8 favorites]
This repricing has become more significant in the past day – and it is particularly affecting long-dated UK government debt. Were dysfunction in this market to continue or worsen, there would be a material risk to UK financial stability. This would lead to an unwarranted tightening of financing conditions and a reduction of the flow of credit to the real economy.BoE: "You fucking idiots."
In line with its financial stability objective, the Bank of England stands ready to restore market functioning and reduce any risks from contagion to credit conditions for UK households and businesses.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 3:55 AM on September 28, 2022 [8 favorites]
After a brief spike with the BoE announcement, the Sterling is continuing to fall and is now at its lowest point.
Wow. This is going to be a big issue for closed defined benefit pension schemes which need to pay collateral on their interest-rate hedges.
posted by vacapinta at 4:34 AM on September 28, 2022 [3 favorites]
Wow. This is going to be a big issue for closed defined benefit pension schemes which need to pay collateral on their interest-rate hedges.
posted by vacapinta at 4:34 AM on September 28, 2022 [3 favorites]
The problem isn't that Truss is fundamentally worse than Johnson - she isn't. There isn't anything she's doing that Johnson would fundamentally disagree with. The only difference is that Johnson was at least smart enough to understand that doing these things would be fundamentally hard to sell to the British public, and Truss doesn't even have that basic level of political acumen.
I will damn Truss with the faintest of praise; I do think that she gets that. She knows that she's not in No. 10 because she rose to the occasion through brilliant new ideas and political wizardry and a remarkable new vision for the UK's future. She knows that she is there because she won a game of Survivor, one in which she gathered enough of the right allies, all of whom gave her marching orders; once you are there, you and your staff will do this and this and this.
Selling this wealth-and-power-redistribution scheme to the general public isn't the focus, because it doesn't need to be. For one, as long as the right people are hurting, a solid chunk of the British public will approve even if they are hurting as well. There will always be a laundry list of ways in which to blame everyone but themselves for the state into which they've put the UK. For another, as has been noted, the wolves do not need or request the approval of the sheep. If the Tories won't face a general election for years, why does it matter what the proles think? Truss is expendable; once her time of usefulness is over, she can be no-confidenced out and replaced by a different Tory talking head who will continue the general path to austerity.
But it is more important to them that these policies and the dismantling of the UK administrative state happen than that doing so retains any measurable degree of public support.
posted by delfin at 6:14 AM on September 28, 2022 [5 favorites]
I will damn Truss with the faintest of praise; I do think that she gets that. She knows that she's not in No. 10 because she rose to the occasion through brilliant new ideas and political wizardry and a remarkable new vision for the UK's future. She knows that she is there because she won a game of Survivor, one in which she gathered enough of the right allies, all of whom gave her marching orders; once you are there, you and your staff will do this and this and this.
Selling this wealth-and-power-redistribution scheme to the general public isn't the focus, because it doesn't need to be. For one, as long as the right people are hurting, a solid chunk of the British public will approve even if they are hurting as well. There will always be a laundry list of ways in which to blame everyone but themselves for the state into which they've put the UK. For another, as has been noted, the wolves do not need or request the approval of the sheep. If the Tories won't face a general election for years, why does it matter what the proles think? Truss is expendable; once her time of usefulness is over, she can be no-confidenced out and replaced by a different Tory talking head who will continue the general path to austerity.
But it is more important to them that these policies and the dismantling of the UK administrative state happen than that doing so retains any measurable degree of public support.
posted by delfin at 6:14 AM on September 28, 2022 [5 favorites]
Am told the BoE were responding to a “run dynamic” on pension funds - a wholesale equivalent of the run which destroyed Northern Rock. Had they not intervened, there would have been mass insolvencies of pension funds by THIS AFTERNOON. — Ed Conway of Sky News.
posted by rory at 7:43 AM on September 28, 2022 [8 favorites]
posted by rory at 7:43 AM on September 28, 2022 [8 favorites]
Selling this wealth-and-power-redistribution scheme to the general public isn't the focus, because it doesn't need to be. For one, as long as the right people are hurting, a solid chunk of the British public will approve even if they are hurting as well.
Under normal conditions I think you'd be 100% correct. But fuel stress is coming out of the lower class, out of the working class, and is now firmly affecting the middle class. The thing about leopards eating faces is they normally don't eat my face.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 7:44 AM on September 28, 2022
Under normal conditions I think you'd be 100% correct. But fuel stress is coming out of the lower class, out of the working class, and is now firmly affecting the middle class. The thing about leopards eating faces is they normally don't eat my face.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 7:44 AM on September 28, 2022
fuel stress... is now firmly affecting the middle class
Yeah. I can afford the energy price hikes (though I'll be pretty resentful about giving yet more money to an energy supplier so incompetent that there is no situation they cannot make worse), but for the first time in the 20 years I've lived independently in centrally heated homes, I can't bring myself to turn the heating on and make the whole house a comfortable temperature. I can afford it, but I don't feel as if I can afford it.
Bonus, I'm wondering if my savings (such as they are) are basically now fairy gold and will have turned to leaves by the end of the year. This is a new and deeply unpleasant worry.
I did not vote for the Leopards Eating Faces party, and I was already pretty strongly opposed to leopards eating faces, but they have indeed never come this close to my own face before.
posted by ManyLeggedCreature at 8:38 AM on September 28, 2022 [21 favorites]
Yeah. I can afford the energy price hikes (though I'll be pretty resentful about giving yet more money to an energy supplier so incompetent that there is no situation they cannot make worse), but for the first time in the 20 years I've lived independently in centrally heated homes, I can't bring myself to turn the heating on and make the whole house a comfortable temperature. I can afford it, but I don't feel as if I can afford it.
Bonus, I'm wondering if my savings (such as they are) are basically now fairy gold and will have turned to leaves by the end of the year. This is a new and deeply unpleasant worry.
I did not vote for the Leopards Eating Faces party, and I was already pretty strongly opposed to leopards eating faces, but they have indeed never come this close to my own face before.
posted by ManyLeggedCreature at 8:38 AM on September 28, 2022 [21 favorites]
Oh, I agree that this isn't going to batter just the nebulous Other; so many aspects of what's going on are going to inflict pain on the vast majority of the British, and many who would otherwise be kneejerk Tory supporters will grow increasingly angry.
Question is, when will they face electoral consequences for such that amount to not just anger, but actual loss of control of the process? There will always be the constituency that will swallow hard and bear it and bellow that at least their passports are blue again. There will be others who will buy into the messaging, as wag Rhiannon Shaw put it, that "we just pushed the UK economy off a building into a vat of acid which immediately set on fire; now, if you don’t vote for us Labour will do that, and with pronouns."
There is a balance at work here, weighing short-term gain for a minority against "even we won't prosper if the entire economy craters." Whether there is a point of sufficient outcry where even many Tories in the Commons declare "no, this is too much, this isn't working, immediate relief and change are required" remains to be seen.
posted by delfin at 8:54 AM on September 28, 2022 [1 favorite]
Question is, when will they face electoral consequences for such that amount to not just anger, but actual loss of control of the process? There will always be the constituency that will swallow hard and bear it and bellow that at least their passports are blue again. There will be others who will buy into the messaging, as wag Rhiannon Shaw put it, that "we just pushed the UK economy off a building into a vat of acid which immediately set on fire; now, if you don’t vote for us Labour will do that, and with pronouns."
There is a balance at work here, weighing short-term gain for a minority against "even we won't prosper if the entire economy craters." Whether there is a point of sufficient outcry where even many Tories in the Commons declare "no, this is too much, this isn't working, immediate relief and change are required" remains to be seen.
posted by delfin at 8:54 AM on September 28, 2022 [1 favorite]
Question is, when will they face electoral consequences for such that amount to not just anger, but actual loss of control of the process?
That would require that there be an alternative. Anyone here holding out hope that Labour or the Lib Dems will pull it together?
posted by Winnie the Proust at 10:08 AM on September 28, 2022
That would require that there be an alternative. Anyone here holding out hope that Labour or the Lib Dems will pull it together?
posted by Winnie the Proust at 10:08 AM on September 28, 2022
That would require that there be an alternative. Anyone here holding out hope that Labour or the Lib Dems will pull it together?
Labour just had an excellent (short) conference, and is looking substantially like a government in waiting. 17 points ahead, and that was from polling BEFORE Kamikwasi caused the collapse of sterling and the bond market to go bananas. Which means pension funds are in deep trouble, mortgages are getting yanked off the shelves left and right while they wait to see what the eventual massive hike in interest rates will have to be (estimated to be north of 6% next year now, up from 0.1% a year ago, and 2.25% currently) - mortgages will be going up by hundreds a month for any poor sod who's got a fixed rate ending in the near future, or is already on a tracker, along with the extra inflation we're all going to be feeling soon as imported oil, food & medicines have just shot up in price due to the sterling collapse, plus of course that energy even with the new cap is still 2.5 times the price it was last year.
Yet - the next GE isn't for two years. Unless a substantial number of tory MPs voluntarily vote no confidence in their own government (and very likely lose their own jobs), Labour and and the Lib Dems are stuck on the sidelines, and it's up to Truss and Kamikwasi to fix what they just broke. Noodle help us.
Apparently Liz has a nickname now in the City; "Daggers". Named after Dagenham station, two stops past Barking.
HIGNFY twitter:
"Kwasi Kwarteng receives shortest email in recorded history:
FROM: IMF
SUBJECT: WTF"
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 10:28 AM on September 28, 2022 [9 favorites]
Labour just had an excellent (short) conference, and is looking substantially like a government in waiting. 17 points ahead, and that was from polling BEFORE Kamikwasi caused the collapse of sterling and the bond market to go bananas. Which means pension funds are in deep trouble, mortgages are getting yanked off the shelves left and right while they wait to see what the eventual massive hike in interest rates will have to be (estimated to be north of 6% next year now, up from 0.1% a year ago, and 2.25% currently) - mortgages will be going up by hundreds a month for any poor sod who's got a fixed rate ending in the near future, or is already on a tracker, along with the extra inflation we're all going to be feeling soon as imported oil, food & medicines have just shot up in price due to the sterling collapse, plus of course that energy even with the new cap is still 2.5 times the price it was last year.
Yet - the next GE isn't for two years. Unless a substantial number of tory MPs voluntarily vote no confidence in their own government (and very likely lose their own jobs), Labour and and the Lib Dems are stuck on the sidelines, and it's up to Truss and Kamikwasi to fix what they just broke. Noodle help us.
Apparently Liz has a nickname now in the City; "Daggers". Named after Dagenham station, two stops past Barking.
HIGNFY twitter:
"Kwasi Kwarteng receives shortest email in recorded history:
FROM: IMF
SUBJECT: WTF"
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 10:28 AM on September 28, 2022 [9 favorites]
Yeah. I can afford the energy price hikes (though I'll be pretty resentful about giving yet more money to an energy supplier so incompetent that there is no situation they cannot make worse), but for the first time in the 20 years I've lived independently in centrally heated homes, I can't bring myself to turn the heating on and make the whole house a comfortable temperature. I can afford it, but I don't feel as if I can afford it.
Meanwhile the upper class can sail through energy price hikes because the upfront cost of alternative energy is steep but the marginal cost is nil. Spend 30K pounds on solar panels? Without a second thought. Then you change the boiler over to a heat pump and install inductive cooktops. Maybe grab an electric car now that the recessions are going to be driving down vehicle sales and prices again. Payback time? Maybe a decade. Less now with the insane price of fossil energy. Ongoing energy bills? Basically nil.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 10:39 AM on September 28, 2022 [1 favorite]
Meanwhile the upper class can sail through energy price hikes because the upfront cost of alternative energy is steep but the marginal cost is nil. Spend 30K pounds on solar panels? Without a second thought. Then you change the boiler over to a heat pump and install inductive cooktops. Maybe grab an electric car now that the recessions are going to be driving down vehicle sales and prices again. Payback time? Maybe a decade. Less now with the insane price of fossil energy. Ongoing energy bills? Basically nil.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 10:39 AM on September 28, 2022 [1 favorite]
This is literally the first time in my entire life I've been genuinely interested to find out what happens at the Conservative Party Conference. Not enough to actually watch it - god knows, I need to hold on to what's left of my shrivelled soul - but I'm hoping for some hilarious commentary.
posted by Grangousier at 11:51 AM on September 28, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by Grangousier at 11:51 AM on September 28, 2022 [2 favorites]
Maybe grab an electric car now that the recessions are going to be driving down vehicle sales..
not so fast: Charging electric vehicles in Britain soon will be more expensive than filling up gasoline-powered cars thanks to soaring electricity costs
I think this is because of the way that petrol is taxed in the UK (a fixed amount per litre), petrol prices have risen but not nearly as much as Electricity (which in England is mostly generated from gas).
posted by Lanark at 12:07 PM on September 28, 2022 [1 favorite]
not so fast: Charging electric vehicles in Britain soon will be more expensive than filling up gasoline-powered cars thanks to soaring electricity costs
I think this is because of the way that petrol is taxed in the UK (a fixed amount per litre), petrol prices have risen but not nearly as much as Electricity (which in England is mostly generated from gas).
posted by Lanark at 12:07 PM on September 28, 2022 [1 favorite]
Ah, but the best plan if you've money to spend is to get solar panels, a battery in the garage, and an EV, as Electric Vehicle Man explains. Tarrifs where the overnight cost from the grid is about a third of the daytime price are available, so with panels and a battery you could avoid using grid electricity at expensive times (or barely use it at all in summer). Charge your electric car from the grid overnight or from the panels during the day.
Of course, if you've got an EV you have to charge away from home on the public networks, you'll pay through the nose now, but if the car is mostly driven back home at night, the occasional long journey won't break the bank.
posted by pw201 at 2:52 PM on September 28, 2022
Of course, if you've got an EV you have to charge away from home on the public networks, you'll pay through the nose now, but if the car is mostly driven back home at night, the occasional long journey won't break the bank.
posted by pw201 at 2:52 PM on September 28, 2022
Charging electric vehicles in Britain soon will be more expensive than filling up gasoline-powered cars thanks to soaring electricity costs
This article is misleading - it is only true if you're looking at public fast-chargers which are the most expensive way to put watt-hours into a battery. There are people for whom that is the only available solution, but I'd wager most people who are looking at getting an EV can do some kind of domestic-rate charge at home, or top up at work, even if it isn't all the charging they do. That changes the calculation significantly.
posted by Dysk at 4:07 PM on September 28, 2022 [2 favorites]
This article is misleading - it is only true if you're looking at public fast-chargers which are the most expensive way to put watt-hours into a battery. There are people for whom that is the only available solution, but I'd wager most people who are looking at getting an EV can do some kind of domestic-rate charge at home, or top up at work, even if it isn't all the charging they do. That changes the calculation significantly.
posted by Dysk at 4:07 PM on September 28, 2022 [2 favorites]
Like, the more I read that Washington Times article, the more obviously it's intentionally misrepresenting the report it's referring to with a very naked agenda.
posted by Dysk at 4:26 PM on September 28, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by Dysk at 4:26 PM on September 28, 2022 [2 favorites]
That's basically what the Washington Times does.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 5:51 PM on September 28, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 5:51 PM on September 28, 2022 [4 favorites]
Meanwhile the upper class can sail through energy price hikes because the upfront cost of alternative energy is steep but the marginal cost is nil. Spend 30K pounds on solar panels? Without a second thought. Then you change the boiler over to a heat pump and install inductive cooktops. Maybe grab an electric car now that the recessions are going to be driving down vehicle sales and prices again. Payback time? Maybe a decade. Less now with the insane price of fossil energy. Ongoing energy bills? Basically nil.
Solar doesn't cost anywhere near that much, actually, and I don't get why the UK doesn't just go ahead and announce an accelerated £10 billion subsidy to solar panels over the next 10 years. The market reactions - even the IMF - are criticizing the 30-40 billion pounds per year given away in tax cuts because it's inflationary and essentially non-productive. At the end of the year, you're now 40 billion pounds poorer, and for what? A lot of that just got paid to offshore oil and gas companies, or people using their windfall to purchase a new 4K TV.
For comparison, I can get 6.6kW solar system that produces 9000kWH per year against my 6000kWH of total usage - I produce 50% more energy than I use, and I have a purely electric heating / cooling / cooking home with exterior temps ranging from -3°C in winter to 44°C in summer. You can get one of those 6.6kW systems without subsidies for about $A7,000 installed, admittedly using Chinese panels and inverters, but if you want to use top of the line premium European tech, then maybe about A$9,000, so that would be £8,000 more or less without subsidies.
The UK government could do a 75% subsidy on solar PV for households earning below the median plus a 20% zero interest loan (this is actual policy where I live) - this would be an actual productive use of money rather than blowing it on tax cuts, households would basically pay £400 upfront for a solar system that produces 50% more energy than they consume.
Australia installs about 350,000 household rooftop solar systems per year, so say with a £6,000 subsidy for lower income earners, that would be £2.1 billion per year. I mean, literally anything is a better use of 30 billion pounds, go build some offshore wind turbines or something...
posted by xdvesper at 6:34 PM on September 28, 2022 [7 favorites]
Solar doesn't cost anywhere near that much, actually, and I don't get why the UK doesn't just go ahead and announce an accelerated £10 billion subsidy to solar panels over the next 10 years. The market reactions - even the IMF - are criticizing the 30-40 billion pounds per year given away in tax cuts because it's inflationary and essentially non-productive. At the end of the year, you're now 40 billion pounds poorer, and for what? A lot of that just got paid to offshore oil and gas companies, or people using their windfall to purchase a new 4K TV.
For comparison, I can get 6.6kW solar system that produces 9000kWH per year against my 6000kWH of total usage - I produce 50% more energy than I use, and I have a purely electric heating / cooling / cooking home with exterior temps ranging from -3°C in winter to 44°C in summer. You can get one of those 6.6kW systems without subsidies for about $A7,000 installed, admittedly using Chinese panels and inverters, but if you want to use top of the line premium European tech, then maybe about A$9,000, so that would be £8,000 more or less without subsidies.
The UK government could do a 75% subsidy on solar PV for households earning below the median plus a 20% zero interest loan (this is actual policy where I live) - this would be an actual productive use of money rather than blowing it on tax cuts, households would basically pay £400 upfront for a solar system that produces 50% more energy than they consume.
Australia installs about 350,000 household rooftop solar systems per year, so say with a £6,000 subsidy for lower income earners, that would be £2.1 billion per year. I mean, literally anything is a better use of 30 billion pounds, go build some offshore wind turbines or something...
posted by xdvesper at 6:34 PM on September 28, 2022 [7 favorites]
Liz Truss has spoken today to Ukraine's president about the ongoing crisis
Zelensky promised to provide all the assistance he could
posted by the duck by the oboe at 9:05 PM on September 28, 2022 [8 favorites]
Zelensky promised to provide all the assistance he could
posted by the duck by the oboe at 9:05 PM on September 28, 2022 [8 favorites]
I don't get why the UK doesn't just go ahead and announce an accelerated £10 billion subsidy to solar panels over the next 10 years [...] this would be an actual productive use of money rather than blowing it on tax cuts
It would be even harder to sell, politically, being targeted only at the well-off, at homeowners and landlords. I guess you could do it instead of abolishing the top rate, but there are a lot of places I would choose to spend the money before I decided that a population-scale wealth transfer to property owners was the best way to go.
posted by Dysk at 10:18 PM on September 28, 2022 [2 favorites]
It would be even harder to sell, politically, being targeted only at the well-off, at homeowners and landlords. I guess you could do it instead of abolishing the top rate, but there are a lot of places I would choose to spend the money before I decided that a population-scale wealth transfer to property owners was the best way to go.
posted by Dysk at 10:18 PM on September 28, 2022 [2 favorites]
Well, something like 63% of households in England are homeowners, and you can win government by a much smaller margin than that. And quite often we see that the poor don't have much of a voice in politics anyway. I wouldn't be surprised if a solar panel policy ended up being a big political gain for the party in power.
As for landlords, the entirety of the benefits (energy bill reduction of over $1000 per year) accrues purely to the tenants, while the landlords get nothing. There are schemes here which encourage landlords to install solar panels on their properties.
posted by xdvesper at 10:30 PM on September 28, 2022
As for landlords, the entirety of the benefits (energy bill reduction of over $1000 per year) accrues purely to the tenants, while the landlords get nothing. There are schemes here which encourage landlords to install solar panels on their properties.
posted by xdvesper at 10:30 PM on September 28, 2022
Well, something like 63% of households in England are homeowners, and you can win government by a much smaller margin than that. And quite often we see that the poor don't have much of a voice in politics anyway.
"The poor won't vote us in anyway" is a terrible reason to just go all-in on ignoring them and focusing on the welfare of the middle class. Winning elections is not why I want to help the poor, and winning elections is pointless if I have to become what I am against to do it.
As for landlords, the entirety of the benefits (energy bill reduction of over $1000 per year) accrues purely to the tenants, while the landlords get nothing.
You're subsidising an increase in property value. Besides, we all know any landlord would look at what the potential savings is, and put the rent up accordingly. Increased property value is increased rent.
Again, homeowners are absolutely not the group I would be prioritising for a handout right now. I might give that handout, but there are quite a few other places and groups I'd put that money towards first.
posted by Dysk at 10:55 PM on September 28, 2022 [4 favorites]
"The poor won't vote us in anyway" is a terrible reason to just go all-in on ignoring them and focusing on the welfare of the middle class. Winning elections is not why I want to help the poor, and winning elections is pointless if I have to become what I am against to do it.
As for landlords, the entirety of the benefits (energy bill reduction of over $1000 per year) accrues purely to the tenants, while the landlords get nothing.
You're subsidising an increase in property value. Besides, we all know any landlord would look at what the potential savings is, and put the rent up accordingly. Increased property value is increased rent.
Again, homeowners are absolutely not the group I would be prioritising for a handout right now. I might give that handout, but there are quite a few other places and groups I'd put that money towards first.
posted by Dysk at 10:55 PM on September 28, 2022 [4 favorites]
(Besides which, decades of history shows that landlords are incredibly loathe to invest meaningfully in their properties in the UK. If we were going to subsidise homeowners, I'd start with something a lot more basic, like insulation, or double glazing which is inexplicably far from universal here.)
posted by Dysk at 11:00 PM on September 28, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by Dysk at 11:00 PM on September 28, 2022 [3 favorites]
Solar doesn't cost anywhere near that much, actually, and I don't get why the UK doesn't just go ahead and announce an accelerated £10 billion subsidy to solar panels over the next 10 years
It's because the government doesn't fucking care about making the country better.
posted by ambrosen at 11:56 PM on September 28, 2022 [5 favorites]
It's because the government doesn't fucking care about making the country better.
posted by ambrosen at 11:56 PM on September 28, 2022 [5 favorites]
Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think the amount of sunlight in a UK winter is enough to generate the power to heat a house in UK winter temperatures, at least not without radically overprovisioning solar panels.
posted by quacks like a duck at 12:41 AM on September 29, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by quacks like a duck at 12:41 AM on September 29, 2022 [4 favorites]
Again, homeowners are absolutely not the group I would be prioritising for a handout right now. I might give that handout, but there are quite a few other places and groups I'd put that money towards first.
Bearing in mind how quickly mortgage interest rates are skyrocketing due to anticipated base rate increases, and I've seen forecasts now of property value drops of between 10 and 20%, plus the recession that's threatening to steepen sharply, there are likely going to be quite a few property owners become poor in the near future, with an asset that's worth less than they owe to the bank for it.
Personally, I fortunately still have 4 years left on my fixed rate deal; if I hadn't I'd be terrified right now. We left wiggle room when we bought a year ago (at an eyewatering cost, because that's just what ordinary family houses cost now) to account for interest rate and cost of living rises; we didn't anticipate *this*. We've managed to use that safety net, plus cutting out every 'nice to have' expense (socialising, trips out, holidays, food treats etc) to pay for the energy, food and fuel rises, but we can't rebuild the savings that we wiped out paying stamp duty (my pay rise this year? 2%) and we consider literally every item in the shopping cart. We are still really, really fortunate, because we have a roof, we have middle-class jobs, and we can still clothe and feed our girls. We can even afford to put the heating on to 18degC. An extra £500 to £600 on the mortgage we just don't have cuts left to make, which is what I'd have to find if I had to switch to a new deal at 6%.
I'd also argue the climate crisis is an existential threat, and we need to tackle it very, very urgently. Chucking solar panels on every possible roof and switching to heat pumps is a big part of that (along with all the other grid-scale tasks and industry changes). Subsidies seem likely to be the only way to achieve that at anything like the necessary speed.
However I do agree that right now, today, there are better options that £45 billion could have been spent on, including raising benefits in line with inflation at the very, very least, and a pay raise to fend off the total collapse of the NHS due to lack of staff for starters. I've been poor enough to count every penny and go into debt just to pay the bills, thankfully a long time ago now; I can barely imagine how people are surviving when it's a literal choice as to which family members get to eat that day from food parcels yet you're in full time employment, let alone what it's like for carers and the disabled. That has to be addressed first. Yet tax cuts for the richest is what they went for. Fucking tories.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 2:05 AM on September 29, 2022 [8 favorites]
Bearing in mind how quickly mortgage interest rates are skyrocketing due to anticipated base rate increases, and I've seen forecasts now of property value drops of between 10 and 20%, plus the recession that's threatening to steepen sharply, there are likely going to be quite a few property owners become poor in the near future, with an asset that's worth less than they owe to the bank for it.
Personally, I fortunately still have 4 years left on my fixed rate deal; if I hadn't I'd be terrified right now. We left wiggle room when we bought a year ago (at an eyewatering cost, because that's just what ordinary family houses cost now) to account for interest rate and cost of living rises; we didn't anticipate *this*. We've managed to use that safety net, plus cutting out every 'nice to have' expense (socialising, trips out, holidays, food treats etc) to pay for the energy, food and fuel rises, but we can't rebuild the savings that we wiped out paying stamp duty (my pay rise this year? 2%) and we consider literally every item in the shopping cart. We are still really, really fortunate, because we have a roof, we have middle-class jobs, and we can still clothe and feed our girls. We can even afford to put the heating on to 18degC. An extra £500 to £600 on the mortgage we just don't have cuts left to make, which is what I'd have to find if I had to switch to a new deal at 6%.
I'd also argue the climate crisis is an existential threat, and we need to tackle it very, very urgently. Chucking solar panels on every possible roof and switching to heat pumps is a big part of that (along with all the other grid-scale tasks and industry changes). Subsidies seem likely to be the only way to achieve that at anything like the necessary speed.
However I do agree that right now, today, there are better options that £45 billion could have been spent on, including raising benefits in line with inflation at the very, very least, and a pay raise to fend off the total collapse of the NHS due to lack of staff for starters. I've been poor enough to count every penny and go into debt just to pay the bills, thankfully a long time ago now; I can barely imagine how people are surviving when it's a literal choice as to which family members get to eat that day from food parcels yet you're in full time employment, let alone what it's like for carers and the disabled. That has to be addressed first. Yet tax cuts for the richest is what they went for. Fucking tories.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 2:05 AM on September 29, 2022 [8 favorites]
Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think the amount of sunlight in a UK winter is enough to generate the power to heat a house in UK winter temperatures, at least not without radically overprovisioning solar panels.
I did the sums a little while ago for my house. 6 panels would be enough to supply 1/3 of our current electricity use on average (bit higher in summer, bit lower in winter). Add a battery to that, and it goes to 2/3 because most of our use is in the evening (when we're home), but either way I don't have that kind of capital. A solar heating loop is an option, but I believe you're generally better off using solar panels to drive a heat pump, though obviously your electricity needs go up then as well compared to a gas boiler. Most houses don't have enough suitable roof space to supply all domestic electricity and a heat pump only from solar panels, so grid-scale renewables would still be necessary, but the load would be substantially reduced. And grid-scale renewables are getting rediculously cheap, especially compared to fossil fuel costs now.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 2:13 AM on September 29, 2022 [3 favorites]
I did the sums a little while ago for my house. 6 panels would be enough to supply 1/3 of our current electricity use on average (bit higher in summer, bit lower in winter). Add a battery to that, and it goes to 2/3 because most of our use is in the evening (when we're home), but either way I don't have that kind of capital. A solar heating loop is an option, but I believe you're generally better off using solar panels to drive a heat pump, though obviously your electricity needs go up then as well compared to a gas boiler. Most houses don't have enough suitable roof space to supply all domestic electricity and a heat pump only from solar panels, so grid-scale renewables would still be necessary, but the load would be substantially reduced. And grid-scale renewables are getting rediculously cheap, especially compared to fossil fuel costs now.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 2:13 AM on September 29, 2022 [3 favorites]
(Besides which, decades of history shows that landlords are incredibly loathe to invest meaningfully in their properties in the UK. If we were going to subsidise homeowners, I'd start with something a lot more basic, like insulation, or double glazing which is inexplicably far from universal here.)
I wasn't saying it was desirable that we can ignore the poor, I was saying that this is plausible policy stance that won't be shot down immediately - it has a plausible chance of being enacted, and it's more beneficial than the tax cut. And by that measure, how DID that 5% tax cut of rich people earning over £150,000 get passed, anyway...
I'm not even saying it's the best policy overall, it's just the one with the best long term benefits for the nation - getting the nation off fossil fuels benefits everyone, not just the people with solar - in fact, solar installations feed energy back into the grid at low feed in rates which then makes energy abundant and cheaper for everyone else, since they will be using solar indirectly instead of fossil fuels.
Retrofitting double glazing is insanely expensive and not something I could recommend. The cost to retrofit a single home with double glazing, I've seen quoted between $30,000 to $60,000 depending on the quality you are willing to settle for. You could be paying $4,000 for a single window. This is essentially pissing money down the drain, you would get a far better savings with an $8,000 solar system or upgrading to efficient heat pumps.
Retrofitting insulation isn't as bad as double glazing, at about $10,000 for the whole house (walls, ceilings, floors). You could plausibly see a return as good as a solar system at the same price... if you had zero insulation before - so this would definitely be a good place to start, perhaps even prioritize over solar. However, home energy efficiency is a holistic system - sure you might have insulation. But if the house is leaky, it's like you're leaving the window and door open, the value of your insulation is vastly reduced when hot (or cold) air blows right through.
posted by xdvesper at 2:17 AM on September 29, 2022 [2 favorites]
I wasn't saying it was desirable that we can ignore the poor, I was saying that this is plausible policy stance that won't be shot down immediately - it has a plausible chance of being enacted, and it's more beneficial than the tax cut. And by that measure, how DID that 5% tax cut of rich people earning over £150,000 get passed, anyway...
I'm not even saying it's the best policy overall, it's just the one with the best long term benefits for the nation - getting the nation off fossil fuels benefits everyone, not just the people with solar - in fact, solar installations feed energy back into the grid at low feed in rates which then makes energy abundant and cheaper for everyone else, since they will be using solar indirectly instead of fossil fuels.
Retrofitting double glazing is insanely expensive and not something I could recommend. The cost to retrofit a single home with double glazing, I've seen quoted between $30,000 to $60,000 depending on the quality you are willing to settle for. You could be paying $4,000 for a single window. This is essentially pissing money down the drain, you would get a far better savings with an $8,000 solar system or upgrading to efficient heat pumps.
Retrofitting insulation isn't as bad as double glazing, at about $10,000 for the whole house (walls, ceilings, floors). You could plausibly see a return as good as a solar system at the same price... if you had zero insulation before - so this would definitely be a good place to start, perhaps even prioritize over solar. However, home energy efficiency is a holistic system - sure you might have insulation. But if the house is leaky, it's like you're leaving the window and door open, the value of your insulation is vastly reduced when hot (or cold) air blows right through.
posted by xdvesper at 2:17 AM on September 29, 2022 [2 favorites]
Bearing in mind how quickly mortgage interest rates are skyrocketing due to anticipated base rate increases, and I've seen forecasts now of property value drops of between 10 and 20%, plus the recession that's threatening to steepen sharply, there are likely going to be quite a few property owners become poor in the near future, with an asset that's worth less than they owe to the bank for it.
Which will start being reflected in rental prices soon enough, as landlords pass as much of that increase onto their tenants as possible.
posted by Dysk at 2:23 AM on September 29, 2022 [2 favorites]
Which will start being reflected in rental prices soon enough, as landlords pass as much of that increase onto their tenants as possible.
posted by Dysk at 2:23 AM on September 29, 2022 [2 favorites]
You could plausibly see a return as good as a solar system at the same price... if you had zero insulation before - so this would definitely be a good place to start, perhaps even prioritize over solar.
"If you had zero insulation before" applies very, very broadly to UK housing stock.
posted by Dysk at 2:24 AM on September 29, 2022 [5 favorites]
"If you had zero insulation before" applies very, very broadly to UK housing stock.
posted by Dysk at 2:24 AM on September 29, 2022 [5 favorites]
Add a battery to that, and it goes to 2/3 because most of our use is in the evening (when we're home), but either way I don't have that kind of capital.
I had been looking at just getting the battery system set up to start with and charging it overnight on one of the discount rates as they're ~ 1/3 of the regular day time rate. Then adding wind turbines / solar when able to afford them. Still need to do more research though, in particular how long it would take to charge enough to cover the rest of the day.
If nothing else they are paving the way for an increasing majority for independence here in Scotland as realistically it's looking like the only way to retain any social services and not end up living in a libertarian dystopia.
posted by Buntix at 2:37 AM on September 29, 2022
I had been looking at just getting the battery system set up to start with and charging it overnight on one of the discount rates as they're ~ 1/3 of the regular day time rate. Then adding wind turbines / solar when able to afford them. Still need to do more research though, in particular how long it would take to charge enough to cover the rest of the day.
If nothing else they are paving the way for an increasing majority for independence here in Scotland as realistically it's looking like the only way to retain any social services and not end up living in a libertarian dystopia.
posted by Buntix at 2:37 AM on September 29, 2022
You could be paying $4,000 for a single window.
Not in the UK, for what it's worth. A single replacement window is typically £200-£700. And remember that British houses are small (and getting smaller), and most of them are attached to at least one neighbour. My house has a total of 29 window panels, making up 12 windows. My previous house had half that number.
posted by ManyLeggedCreature at 2:44 AM on September 29, 2022 [1 favorite]
Not in the UK, for what it's worth. A single replacement window is typically £200-£700. And remember that British houses are small (and getting smaller), and most of them are attached to at least one neighbour. My house has a total of 29 window panels, making up 12 windows. My previous house had half that number.
posted by ManyLeggedCreature at 2:44 AM on September 29, 2022 [1 favorite]
As convincing as it is bleak...
@RichardJMurphy: Six days after Kwarteng gave the worst budget in living memory, where are we? A summary thread…
posted by Buntix at 2:58 AM on September 29, 2022 [2 favorites]
@RichardJMurphy: Six days after Kwarteng gave the worst budget in living memory, where are we? A summary thread…
posted by Buntix at 2:58 AM on September 29, 2022 [2 favorites]
I like the animated graphs that compare national GDP of various countries over time. Here is one that shows the top 15 economies of the world from 1600 onwards - I find it interesting to look at countries like Argentina which used to compare favourably with places like France or Canada before heading south. The UK has been on the rich list since the beginning - but there is nothing stopping it heading to the basket case group rapidly if it adopts an economic policy that is equivalent to pointing a car at a cliff and hitting the accelerator hard.
posted by rongorongo at 5:17 AM on September 29, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by rongorongo at 5:17 AM on September 29, 2022 [2 favorites]
Truss did the rounds of some of the BBC's local radio stations this morning. I wonder how well she thinks that went... Not sure if it's accessible from outside the UK, but BBC Sounds has the complete set, if you've got an hour to spare.
posted by ManyLeggedCreature at 5:49 AM on September 29, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by ManyLeggedCreature at 5:49 AM on September 29, 2022 [2 favorites]
Few more articles.
Spectator: Truss can’t hide from the crisis she created.
New Statesman: Liz Truss and the rise of the libertarian right.
Mirror: 9 car crash moments in Liz Truss's local radio grilling.
posted by TheophileEscargot at 6:39 AM on September 29, 2022 [2 favorites]
Spectator: Truss can’t hide from the crisis she created.
New Statesman: Liz Truss and the rise of the libertarian right.
Mirror: 9 car crash moments in Liz Truss's local radio grilling.
posted by TheophileEscargot at 6:39 AM on September 29, 2022 [2 favorites]
The New Statesman article is particularly poignant, as it illustrates that while Truss and Kwarteng are misfiring badly, this isn't a simple miscalculation or a lack of education or training. It's easy to look at Truss right now and imagine her as a flailing dimwit, Philomena Cunk given the keys to the castle, with Mr. Bean next to her preparing the mini-budget by throwing darts blindly at tax codes.
Rather, this is what happens when you give hardcore libertarians control over budgeting, fiscal policy and social services in an otherwise reasonably-civilized nation. This is thorough abandonment of the very concept of regulation and safety nets, discarding both ceilings and floors in favor of naked free-marketism. This is a first step, and the spending cut proposals to follow that will answer the question of "how are we supposed to pay for all these massive tax cuts" will increase the howling by several magnitudes.
This is not blundering on their part. This is with intent. They want to turn the UK into a pure predator - prey environment, and if you're not sure if you're predator or prey, you're most certainly the latter.
posted by delfin at 9:03 AM on September 29, 2022 [7 favorites]
Rather, this is what happens when you give hardcore libertarians control over budgeting, fiscal policy and social services in an otherwise reasonably-civilized nation. This is thorough abandonment of the very concept of regulation and safety nets, discarding both ceilings and floors in favor of naked free-marketism. This is a first step, and the spending cut proposals to follow that will answer the question of "how are we supposed to pay for all these massive tax cuts" will increase the howling by several magnitudes.
This is not blundering on their part. This is with intent. They want to turn the UK into a pure predator - prey environment, and if you're not sure if you're predator or prey, you're most certainly the latter.
posted by delfin at 9:03 AM on September 29, 2022 [7 favorites]
A new YouGov poll has Labour 33 points ahead of the Tories (highest since the 1990s) which is... a lot considering you'd usually expect a Tory bounce from both having a new leader and the Queen's death.
posted by scorbet at 9:38 AM on September 29, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by scorbet at 9:38 AM on September 29, 2022 [5 favorites]
I'm not sure you can "bounce" off rock-bottom.
posted by sharp pointy objects at 9:40 AM on September 29, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by sharp pointy objects at 9:40 AM on September 29, 2022 [1 favorite]
Just 37% of 2019 tory voters would stick with them. Wow. That's a truly apocalyptic change because of the post mini-budget chaos - I put those voter numbers in this swingometer for a sample GE, and Labour would have 498 MPs; the Conservatives would lose 301 seats, leaving 64, leading to a 346 seat majority for Labour, which is virtually unprecedented. The closest analog I can find in history is when the Tory party as-was lost 308 seats due to electoral reform eliminating rotten boroughs before the election in 1832, and the Tory party disbanded to be replaced by the Conservative Party.
I wonder how long modern tory MP self preservation will take to kick in.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 10:45 AM on September 29, 2022 [4 favorites]
I wonder how long modern tory MP self preservation will take to kick in.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 10:45 AM on September 29, 2022 [4 favorites]
“The cost to retrofit a single home with double glazing, I've seen quoted between $30,000 to $60,000 depending on the quality you are willing to settle for”
I have no idea where you are getting your costings from, but we replaced all of ours with double glazed wooden sash windows (probably the most expensive option you could pick but we’re in a conservation area), and it cost us £8k. If we’d gone for uPVC effect it would have been more like £4k. People replace their single glazing with double glazing all the time, nobody spends £60k on it. That kind of money gets you a loft extension or something.
posted by tinkletown at 12:03 PM on September 29, 2022 [4 favorites]
I have no idea where you are getting your costings from, but we replaced all of ours with double glazed wooden sash windows (probably the most expensive option you could pick but we’re in a conservation area), and it cost us £8k. If we’d gone for uPVC effect it would have been more like £4k. People replace their single glazing with double glazing all the time, nobody spends £60k on it. That kind of money gets you a loft extension or something.
posted by tinkletown at 12:03 PM on September 29, 2022 [4 favorites]
It'll suck worse for the UK once nobody exports food anymore..
Yet, they've wonderful reform movements like XR, Insulate Britain, Tyre Extinguishers, etc. I do wonder if their society/politics could somehow "bounce" first, in part thanks to living through this Tory idiocy, and then be better able to navigate the coming slow motion collapses.
posted by jeffburdges at 12:11 PM on September 29, 2022 [1 favorite]
Yet, they've wonderful reform movements like XR, Insulate Britain, Tyre Extinguishers, etc. I do wonder if their society/politics could somehow "bounce" first, in part thanks to living through this Tory idiocy, and then be better able to navigate the coming slow motion collapses.
posted by jeffburdges at 12:11 PM on September 29, 2022 [1 favorite]
Radio 4 have a very good summary of the financial fallout here.
posted by Lanark at 1:15 PM on September 29, 2022
posted by Lanark at 1:15 PM on September 29, 2022
British Economy: all Trussed up and nowhere to grow.
posted by jamjam at 1:32 PM on September 29, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by jamjam at 1:32 PM on September 29, 2022 [2 favorites]
Who is Liz Truss’s Chief Economic Adviser, Matthew Sinclair? Can Okar explains.
posted by Winnie the Proust at 2:38 PM on September 29, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by Winnie the Proust at 2:38 PM on September 29, 2022 [2 favorites]
Why don't they have a subsidy for insulation and other green home upgrades?
They did. It was cancelled by the Tories due to low uptake 7 years ago.
posted by srboisvert at 6:45 PM on September 29, 2022 [1 favorite]
They did. It was cancelled by the Tories due to low uptake 7 years ago.
posted by srboisvert at 6:45 PM on September 29, 2022 [1 favorite]
I'm not sure you can "bounce" off rock-bottom.
Pretty sure that's actually the point of rock bottom as an idea. You can only bounce off it because that's as low as can possibly be gone.
What I'm sure you can't bounce off is a sucking vortex, which is what the UK Conservative Party seems to have turned itself into.
posted by flabdablet at 6:52 PM on September 29, 2022 [2 favorites]
Pretty sure that's actually the point of rock bottom as an idea. You can only bounce off it because that's as low as can possibly be gone.
What I'm sure you can't bounce off is a sucking vortex, which is what the UK Conservative Party seems to have turned itself into.
posted by flabdablet at 6:52 PM on September 29, 2022 [2 favorites]
“The cost to retrofit a single home with double glazing, I've seen quoted between $30,000 to $60,000 depending on the quality you are willing to settle for”
I have no idea where you are getting your costings from, but we replaced all of ours with double glazed wooden sash windows (probably the most expensive option you could pick but we’re in a conservation area), and it cost us £8k.
Those numbers sound about right for Australia, where solar PV is fairly cheap and double glazing is not.
posted by the duck by the oboe at 7:01 PM on September 29, 2022
I have no idea where you are getting your costings from, but we replaced all of ours with double glazed wooden sash windows (probably the most expensive option you could pick but we’re in a conservation area), and it cost us £8k.
Those numbers sound about right for Australia, where solar PV is fairly cheap and double glazing is not.
posted by the duck by the oboe at 7:01 PM on September 29, 2022
I have no idea where you are getting your costings from, but we replaced all of ours with double glazed wooden sash windows (probably the most expensive option you could pick but we’re in a conservation area), and it cost us £8k.
That's really interesting to me, thanks for the insight (and to ManyLeggedCreature as well) - I live halfway around the world and the typical quotes here are a lot more expensive - I'm on a very large Facebook community (over 50,000 members) discussing their own home energy upgrades, including my own, and sharing our quotes / experiences with contractors and we are seeing very high prices for installation of high quality double glazing units (thermally broken frames, argon gas, etc) - while of course cheaper ones are also available. The same with solar, if you settle for undocumented workers putting in marked down obsolete Chinese panels and inverters, versus a top tier installer with permanent staff who use the top flight European panels and inverters.
While I always assumed there would be a large variance in prices, it seems with the prices you're sharing we're getting majorly ripped off for double glazing over here in this part of the world!
On the topic of Britain's economic woes - I'm in an industry with a reliance on multi-stage assemblies and processes in Europe... a component might be cast in Spain, machined in Germany, finished in UK, then shipped to Hungary for final assembly into the product. UK's exit from the EU absolutely tore up decades of supply chains because it means many "local" products no longer have sufficient EU originating content, which means they suddenly get hit by heavy taxes meant to protect the EU from cheap products coming from China. Billions of dollars of investments in UK and jobs were put on hold and cancelled so their manufacturing steps could be done in the EU proper instead. But you wouldn't have seen the impact of that in the 3-4 years after Brexit because companies would still run out their existing assets in the UK, there just wouldn't be investment / maintenance / replacement... you will, however, start seeing the real impact of it 5-10 years later, as production finally shifts out of UK.
posted by xdvesper at 7:05 PM on September 29, 2022 [7 favorites]
That's really interesting to me, thanks for the insight (and to ManyLeggedCreature as well) - I live halfway around the world and the typical quotes here are a lot more expensive - I'm on a very large Facebook community (over 50,000 members) discussing their own home energy upgrades, including my own, and sharing our quotes / experiences with contractors and we are seeing very high prices for installation of high quality double glazing units (thermally broken frames, argon gas, etc) - while of course cheaper ones are also available. The same with solar, if you settle for undocumented workers putting in marked down obsolete Chinese panels and inverters, versus a top tier installer with permanent staff who use the top flight European panels and inverters.
While I always assumed there would be a large variance in prices, it seems with the prices you're sharing we're getting majorly ripped off for double glazing over here in this part of the world!
On the topic of Britain's economic woes - I'm in an industry with a reliance on multi-stage assemblies and processes in Europe... a component might be cast in Spain, machined in Germany, finished in UK, then shipped to Hungary for final assembly into the product. UK's exit from the EU absolutely tore up decades of supply chains because it means many "local" products no longer have sufficient EU originating content, which means they suddenly get hit by heavy taxes meant to protect the EU from cheap products coming from China. Billions of dollars of investments in UK and jobs were put on hold and cancelled so their manufacturing steps could be done in the EU proper instead. But you wouldn't have seen the impact of that in the 3-4 years after Brexit because companies would still run out their existing assets in the UK, there just wouldn't be investment / maintenance / replacement... you will, however, start seeing the real impact of it 5-10 years later, as production finally shifts out of UK.
posted by xdvesper at 7:05 PM on September 29, 2022 [7 favorites]
They always knew manufacturing in the UK would be thrown to the wolves by Brexit. Blowing up 4 decades of developing integrated supply chains, as you say, was always going to end badly. They expected farming to go too, due to cheaper imports from places with lower standards/regulation. Of course, that relied on cargo shipping remaining dirt cheap too. For now, lack of seasonal workers is causing bigger problems for farming.
They were always rather vague on what jobs people were supposed to do instead. I guess they could all go be citygamblers traders instead and make lots of money shorting sterling!
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 12:01 AM on September 30, 2022 [2 favorites]
They were always rather vague on what jobs people were supposed to do instead. I guess they could all go be city
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 12:01 AM on September 30, 2022 [2 favorites]
If you absolutely insisted on somehow spending government money on solar panels, you could start by getting them up on government buildings.
But again, I'd start by insulating them. Housing (and other buildings) are just crap here when it comes to keeping cold out - little lagging anywhere, shoddily installed doors, windows, and frames, often outright cracks and gaps to outside... (and when I say "insulate buildings" that very much means plugging these gaps and addressing whatever is causing the place to lead great, not just putting Rockwool in the walls and calling it good, which I think it's how some people were interpreting it upthread? A house cannot be leaky and insulated, insulated is the absence of heat leaks.) The amount you could reduce heating demand in this country is mind-boggling.
posted by Dysk at 12:05 AM on September 30, 2022 [1 favorite]
But again, I'd start by insulating them. Housing (and other buildings) are just crap here when it comes to keeping cold out - little lagging anywhere, shoddily installed doors, windows, and frames, often outright cracks and gaps to outside... (and when I say "insulate buildings" that very much means plugging these gaps and addressing whatever is causing the place to lead great, not just putting Rockwool in the walls and calling it good, which I think it's how some people were interpreting it upthread? A house cannot be leaky and insulated, insulated is the absence of heat leaks.) The amount you could reduce heating demand in this country is mind-boggling.
posted by Dysk at 12:05 AM on September 30, 2022 [1 favorite]
(It is worth mentioning the Insulate Britain protests of 2021 - the protestors were demanding the government improve the insulation of social housing by 2025 and that they embark on a programme of retrofitting all housing stock with better insulation by 2030. The government faced a choice of either adopting such policies or of shutting down the group. They chose the latter path - nine of the protesters have been imprisoned.)
posted by rongorongo at 12:40 AM on September 30, 2022 [9 favorites]
posted by rongorongo at 12:40 AM on September 30, 2022 [9 favorites]
The UK Building Regulations have been updated recently, which affects new-build and renovations. The changes include:
Updated Approved Document L (Conservation of fuel and power) Including Increase to insulation values*, reduction in air leakage, requirements which will in effect start to phase out gas boilers in favour of heat pumps and PV (more here)
The new Approved Document O (Overheating) introduces glazing limits in new-build homes, care homes, schools and student accommodation to reduce unwanted solar gain. It also enforces new levels of cross-ventilation.
The new Approved Document S (Infrastructure for charging electric vehicles) requires all domestic new builds to have the preparatory work completed for future installation of an electric vehicle charging point.
One of the changes is the requirement for photographic records during the construction. This should hopefully help with compliance, which has been an issue. Previously Building Inspectors relied mainly on site visits, and were understandably pre-occupied with ensuring that structural and fire regs were being adhered to.
Prices for all building components / materials have pretty much doubled. (Article from January here, Government report which doesn’t mention Brexit even once here) A lot of timber windows are manufactured in the Baltics with Russian timber which is obviously not good for prices but good for the forests which are harvested in an unsustainable way.
*Note that double glazing has been a requirement for new-build (and some renovations) for a number of years, and a move to triple glazing is coming. Cost-wise it is surprisingly not that much of a jump from double glazed.
posted by Kiwi at 12:58 AM on October 1, 2022 [4 favorites]
Updated Approved Document L (Conservation of fuel and power) Including Increase to insulation values*, reduction in air leakage, requirements which will in effect start to phase out gas boilers in favour of heat pumps and PV (more here)
The new Approved Document O (Overheating) introduces glazing limits in new-build homes, care homes, schools and student accommodation to reduce unwanted solar gain. It also enforces new levels of cross-ventilation.
The new Approved Document S (Infrastructure for charging electric vehicles) requires all domestic new builds to have the preparatory work completed for future installation of an electric vehicle charging point.
One of the changes is the requirement for photographic records during the construction. This should hopefully help with compliance, which has been an issue. Previously Building Inspectors relied mainly on site visits, and were understandably pre-occupied with ensuring that structural and fire regs were being adhered to.
Prices for all building components / materials have pretty much doubled. (Article from January here, Government report which doesn’t mention Brexit even once here) A lot of timber windows are manufactured in the Baltics with Russian timber which is obviously not good for prices but good for the forests which are harvested in an unsustainable way.
*Note that double glazing has been a requirement for new-build (and some renovations) for a number of years, and a move to triple glazing is coming. Cost-wise it is surprisingly not that much of a jump from double glazed.
posted by Kiwi at 12:58 AM on October 1, 2022 [4 favorites]
And apologies for my error - this is not UK wide. As per Wikipedia: Building regulations that apply across England and Wales are set out in the Building Act 1984 while those that apply across Scotland are set out in the Building (Scotland) Act 2003.
posted by Kiwi at 2:19 AM on October 1, 2022
posted by Kiwi at 2:19 AM on October 1, 2022
After swearing eight ways to Tuesday that there was going to be no deviation from the 'right' course of action, some small semblance of rationality/political reality appears to have penetrated the ideological armour of Truss & Kwarteng: Kwasi Kwarteng U-turns on plans to scrap 45p tax rate.
posted by sarble at 1:27 AM on October 3, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by sarble at 1:27 AM on October 3, 2022 [2 favorites]
It would be such fun to watch that pair carom at inevitably-increasing speed between the rock and the hard place of their own horrid ideology's making were it not for the way that the same rock keeps grinding so many ordinary people to paste on the face of the same hard place.
Not even knowing that so many Conservatives will end up having to chew off their own wrists for political survival can make up for the damage they've done.
posted by flabdablet at 11:08 AM on October 3, 2022 [1 favorite]
Not even knowing that so many Conservatives will end up having to chew off their own wrists for political survival can make up for the damage they've done.
posted by flabdablet at 11:08 AM on October 3, 2022 [1 favorite]
Yes, exactly. It's important to remember that even as some high profile elements get rolled back, the overall destruction continues. It's the illusion of moderation.
posted by Winnie the Proust at 4:20 PM on October 3, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Winnie the Proust at 4:20 PM on October 3, 2022 [1 favorite]
I'm not in the UK but it feels like an extra slap that that isn't sorrywewreckedtheeconomy.co.uk .
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 3:52 AM on October 4, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 3:52 AM on October 4, 2022 [3 favorites]
Truss is in serious damage control now. First, she had to back down on the tax cut for the rich, and now she's caught backing off from Boris Johnson's promise that benefits would keep pace with inflation.
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 6:08 AM on October 4, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 6:08 AM on October 4, 2022 [1 favorite]
Which makes keeping up the right messaging all the more important. This is not a U-Turn at all; it's a roundabout, in proper British style, and they'll be circling around again for another, better-camouflaged go before long.
The important thing is not that they were delayed in pillaging the nation and ripping the guts out of its social programs and beneficial systems. The important thing is that they tried -- and they'll happily keep trying. If the pressure on them is not kept on, it's not a matter of whether massive cuts will happen; rather, what euphemisms and repackagings will make those cuts sufficiently acceptable to the Tory rank-and-file.
posted by delfin at 8:12 AM on October 4, 2022 [2 favorites]
The important thing is not that they were delayed in pillaging the nation and ripping the guts out of its social programs and beneficial systems. The important thing is that they tried -- and they'll happily keep trying. If the pressure on them is not kept on, it's not a matter of whether massive cuts will happen; rather, what euphemisms and repackagings will make those cuts sufficiently acceptable to the Tory rank-and-file.
posted by delfin at 8:12 AM on October 4, 2022 [2 favorites]
'I can't see her coming back from this': James O'Brien thinks PM Liz Truss is done for
posted by flabdablet at 10:45 AM on October 4, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by flabdablet at 10:45 AM on October 4, 2022 [3 favorites]
She's lost the twitchers - Guardian: RSPB ‘not ruling out’ direct action to defend nature from government policy
via: r/ukpolitics/
posted by sebastienbailard at 12:02 AM on October 11, 2022 [2 favorites]
via: r/ukpolitics/
posted by sebastienbailard at 12:02 AM on October 11, 2022 [2 favorites]
Cassetteboy vs Liz Truss - Nu Tax Plan
"All that trickles down is the piss we're taking"
posted by flabdablet at 4:34 AM on October 11, 2022 [3 favorites]
"All that trickles down is the piss we're taking"
posted by flabdablet at 4:34 AM on October 11, 2022 [3 favorites]
Truss has fired Kwarteng. Jeremy Hunt is now Chancellor. You couldn't make it up.
posted by automatronic at 6:33 AM on October 14, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by automatronic at 6:33 AM on October 14, 2022 [2 favorites]
The hirhle is homplete.
posted by flabdablet at 6:42 AM on October 14, 2022
posted by flabdablet at 6:42 AM on October 14, 2022
Andrew Marr and Shelagh Doherty’ real time reaction to the political bin-fire of Kwarteng’s resignation, is fun. “If she doesn’t go today, with dignity, they’ll get her out next week or the week after”.
posted by rongorongo at 8:24 AM on October 14, 2022
posted by rongorongo at 8:24 AM on October 14, 2022
The Daily Star have started a live video feed of a lettuce, and are encouraging bets on whether it will outlast Liz Truss's premiership. Bookies are reportedly offering 6/1 odds on the lettuce.
posted by automatronic at 8:33 AM on October 14, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by automatronic at 8:33 AM on October 14, 2022 [1 favorite]
It's good that they put googly eyes. You know where you stand with that lettuce.
posted by flabdablet at 11:27 AM on October 14, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by flabdablet at 11:27 AM on October 14, 2022 [5 favorites]
Aaaaaand the lettuce won!
posted by Tom Hanks Cannot Be Trusted at 5:54 AM on October 20, 2022 [13 favorites]
posted by Tom Hanks Cannot Be Trusted at 5:54 AM on October 20, 2022 [13 favorites]
The chat on the live feed at the moment is mostly a huge outpouring of LETTUCE FOR PM.
Maybe they should have put the googly eyes on Truss.
posted by flabdablet at 6:07 AM on October 20, 2022 [1 favorite]
Maybe they should have put the googly eyes on Truss.
posted by flabdablet at 6:07 AM on October 20, 2022 [1 favorite]
"In six short weeks, I have achieved everything I ever wanted as Prime Minister. As such, I have asked the King to have me executed so my achievements can never be sullied by later failures."
posted by dng at 6:14 AM on October 20, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by dng at 6:14 AM on October 20, 2022 [1 favorite]
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What happened to “the deal” conservatives have always abided by with business? Did it finally break under its own weight?
posted by lattiboy at 10:43 PM on September 26, 2022 [1 favorite]