Ian
September 27, 2022 5:56 AM Subscribe
Hurricane Ian is a major hurricane and current forecasts place it as intensifying and slowing in its northern movement with a near direct hit in Tampa Bay.
Tampa-St.Petersburg, with a population of 3.2 million, is often considered moderately safe from hurricanes. It is, however, extremely vulnerable, and a direct hit would be catastrophic. Yale's Eye on the Climate is a good resource for following this storm.
Tampa-St.Petersburg, with a population of 3.2 million, is often considered moderately safe from hurricanes. It is, however, extremely vulnerable, and a direct hit would be catastrophic. Yale's Eye on the Climate is a good resource for following this storm.
And, of course, as one of the linked articles point out, hurricanes are only one kind of natural disaster, and the US has had a record-breaking year for natural disasters of all kinds.
Natural? Or should we call them climate-related? Or something even blunter.
posted by Well I never at 6:19 AM on September 27, 2022 [2 favorites]
Natural? Or should we call them climate-related? Or something even blunter.
posted by Well I never at 6:19 AM on September 27, 2022 [2 favorites]
Perhaps we could try sending the Governor out in a small boat as a sacrifice to the Hungry Storm?
posted by GenjiandProust at 6:23 AM on September 27, 2022 [88 favorites]
posted by GenjiandProust at 6:23 AM on September 27, 2022 [88 favorites]
The eye on climate is very good, it’s where Jeff Masters and Bob Henson landed after IBM bought Weather Underground and decided to strip it of all the parts that made it great, including the Category 6 blog.
posted by rockindata at 6:35 AM on September 27, 2022 [14 favorites]
posted by rockindata at 6:35 AM on September 27, 2022 [14 favorites]
Just to say, I am here in Southern Puerto Rico now a week and a half without power after Fiona. The privatized ownership of the electric company has made service worse and more opaque. And more expensive.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 6:41 AM on September 27, 2022 [56 favorites]
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 6:41 AM on September 27, 2022 [56 favorites]
The Q set are viewing Ian as a hoax.
This will get people killed.
posted by NoxAeternum at 6:43 AM on September 27, 2022 [5 favorites]
This will get people killed.
posted by NoxAeternum at 6:43 AM on September 27, 2022 [5 favorites]
The Eye on Climate page linked to the National Hurricane Center Storm Surge Risk Maps.
Click the Cat 1 through Cat 5 tabs to recolor the map. It shows the expected flood level above ground. Red=greater than 9 feet of flooding.
Tampa Bay has lots of red at Cat 3 and above.
posted by jjj606 at 6:46 AM on September 27, 2022 [4 favorites]
Click the Cat 1 through Cat 5 tabs to recolor the map. It shows the expected flood level above ground. Red=greater than 9 feet of flooding.
Tampa Bay has lots of red at Cat 3 and above.
posted by jjj606 at 6:46 AM on September 27, 2022 [4 favorites]
May every person in Florida come through this unscathed and may the roof of the Trop fall in so the Blue Jays don't have to play there in the postseason.
posted by The Notorious SRD at 6:47 AM on September 27, 2022 [14 favorites]
posted by The Notorious SRD at 6:47 AM on September 27, 2022 [14 favorites]
Since the circulation of northern hemisphere cyclones is anti-clockwise, and the movement generally west-to-north, the storm surge typically piles up on the north-west side of the storm.
However, if the storm is moving north along a west coast, the south-west side of the storm where winds are blowing onshore will still pack a huge wallop. I expect Tampa and the rest of the sun coast to have very, very bad wind damage and significant storm surge if the forecasted track is followed.
It's like a skee-ball shot, right up the coast, and everyone loses.
posted by seanmpuckett at 6:55 AM on September 27, 2022 [1 favorite]
However, if the storm is moving north along a west coast, the south-west side of the storm where winds are blowing onshore will still pack a huge wallop. I expect Tampa and the rest of the sun coast to have very, very bad wind damage and significant storm surge if the forecasted track is followed.
It's like a skee-ball shot, right up the coast, and everyone loses.
posted by seanmpuckett at 6:55 AM on September 27, 2022 [1 favorite]
Is DeSantis going to throw paper towels? Because that's how you help people when a hurricane devastates their homes and local infrastructure.
posted by waving at 7:00 AM on September 27, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by waving at 7:00 AM on September 27, 2022 [4 favorites]
Is DeSantis going to throw paper towels? Because that's how you help people when a hurricane devastates their homes and local infrastructure.
I think he's planning to evacuate just the illegal immigrants.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 7:05 AM on September 27, 2022 [5 favorites]
I think he's planning to evacuate just the illegal immigrants.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 7:05 AM on September 27, 2022 [5 favorites]
my whole family including my 102 year old grandmother are right there in the path. for decades we’ve been waiting for the One Storm to come as a direct hit on pinellas / tampa as a cat 3 or more and wipe the place out and here it is. you can say goodbye to clearwater beach, jesus. don’t know how i’m going to focus this week with this shit happening
posted by dis_integration at 7:08 AM on September 27, 2022 [36 favorites]
posted by dis_integration at 7:08 AM on September 27, 2022 [36 favorites]
Sorry to hear that dis, I hope everything turns out ok. 🤞
I recently inherited a small Florida property near Fort Meyers that I put on the market this summer (no takers so far, memail if you're interested in an old mango farm on an island in the Gulf Coast. What could go wrong?)
That property is unoccupied, not even in the direct path and I've been anxious for days. I can't imagine if I had friends or family in Tampa Bay area.
posted by jeremias at 7:30 AM on September 27, 2022 [9 favorites]
I recently inherited a small Florida property near Fort Meyers that I put on the market this summer (no takers so far, memail if you're interested in an old mango farm on an island in the Gulf Coast. What could go wrong?)
That property is unoccupied, not even in the direct path and I've been anxious for days. I can't imagine if I had friends or family in Tampa Bay area.
posted by jeremias at 7:30 AM on September 27, 2022 [9 favorites]
> Is DeSantis going to throw paper towels? Because that's how you help people when a hurricane devastates their homes and local infrastructure.
I think he's planning to evacuate just the illegal immigrants.
Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if he's looking into a way to deport the hurricane itself.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 7:33 AM on September 27, 2022 [1 favorite]
I think he's planning to evacuate just the illegal immigrants.
Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if he's looking into a way to deport the hurricane itself.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 7:33 AM on September 27, 2022 [1 favorite]
>I think he's planning to evacuate just the illegal immigrants.
Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if he's looking into a way to deport the hurricane itself.
I've heard tell this can be done with a map and a Sharpie.
posted by BlueJae at 7:46 AM on September 27, 2022 [20 favorites]
Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if he's looking into a way to deport the hurricane itself.
I've heard tell this can be done with a map and a Sharpie.
posted by BlueJae at 7:46 AM on September 27, 2022 [20 favorites]
The Q set are viewing Ian as a hoax.
Hopefully large numbers will stand outside as the eye passes over to demonstrate this.
The wind does not respect a fool.
posted by Servo5678 at 7:48 AM on September 27, 2022 [13 favorites]
Hopefully large numbers will stand outside as the eye passes over to demonstrate this.
The wind does not respect a fool.
posted by Servo5678 at 7:48 AM on September 27, 2022 [13 favorites]
11am NHC shows the path of the storm slightly south of Tampa Bay now, with rapid loss of intensity after landfall. Godspeed to all you Floridians on the West Coast; we're up in St. Augustine feeling very thankful that, if the forecast holds, we're only going to be getting a little bit of weather later this week.
posted by saladin at 8:09 AM on September 27, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by saladin at 8:09 AM on September 27, 2022 [1 favorite]
My co-worker has a friend in Tampa who's determined to stay. Apparently 1) her husband (ex-military) is from Puerto Rico and knows they can just close the shutters and ride it out, he's seen worse, and 2) they're like a couple of miles inland so no probs, and 3) she's really stubborn so when her mother called from Davenport, Iowa, to beg them to come north, she dug in her heels and has something to prove to mom. Their home is worth millions and they don't want to leave it. They are dripping with money. They have one small child and she's pregnant.
I don't get this mentality.
posted by Caxton1476 at 8:19 AM on September 27, 2022 [7 favorites]
I don't get this mentality.
posted by Caxton1476 at 8:19 AM on September 27, 2022 [7 favorites]
My mom just moved to Lakeland, which is far enough inland that storm surge is not a risk. Still, I'm nervous. I'll be thinking of everyone on the coast.
posted by Mavri at 8:25 AM on September 27, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Mavri at 8:25 AM on September 27, 2022 [1 favorite]
One of my best friends lives in Largo, although fortunately outside any of the storm surge zones (even for a Cat. 5) in the risk map linked to above. But I still worry they're not taking this seriously enough and is treating it as a minor inconvenience - "Oh, it'll surely peter out by the time it gets here". I on the other hand grew up in Florida and have a healthy respect for hurricanes, but I still can't seem to convince them. Fingers crossed they'll pull through this relatively unscathed.
posted by Greg_Ace at 8:28 AM on September 27, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by Greg_Ace at 8:28 AM on September 27, 2022 [4 favorites]
Tell me more about Mango Farm Island.
posted by ryanrs at 8:30 AM on September 27, 2022 [40 favorites]
posted by ryanrs at 8:30 AM on September 27, 2022 [40 favorites]
Tell me more about Mango Farm Island.
Seconded.
posted by saladin at 8:31 AM on September 27, 2022 [10 favorites]
Seconded.
posted by saladin at 8:31 AM on September 27, 2022 [10 favorites]
have a healthy respect for hurricanes, but I still can't seem to convince them
The issue with Tampa/Pinellas old timers is if you grew up there, lived there your whole life, you've seen plenty of storms enter the gulf or come across from the atlantic and it's basically been fine. Some flooding, some wind damage, but nothing catastrophic has hit that area since 1921 and so people feel like it can't happen. Hurricanes are something that happens to the Panhandle, Miami or the Keys. They don't hit Tampa. Until they do
posted by dis_integration at 8:40 AM on September 27, 2022 [10 favorites]
The issue with Tampa/Pinellas old timers is if you grew up there, lived there your whole life, you've seen plenty of storms enter the gulf or come across from the atlantic and it's basically been fine. Some flooding, some wind damage, but nothing catastrophic has hit that area since 1921 and so people feel like it can't happen. Hurricanes are something that happens to the Panhandle, Miami or the Keys. They don't hit Tampa. Until they do
posted by dis_integration at 8:40 AM on September 27, 2022 [10 favorites]
Why is it always the Scottish ones that cause trouble?
posted by scruss at 8:41 AM on September 27, 2022 [7 favorites]
posted by scruss at 8:41 AM on September 27, 2022 [7 favorites]
“No True Hurricane” syndrome?
posted by Thorzdad at 8:53 AM on September 27, 2022 [13 favorites]
posted by Thorzdad at 8:53 AM on September 27, 2022 [13 favorites]
Hello everyone from Citrus County, about an hour and a half north of St. Pete, where we've evacuated for at least the next few days. Gas was more plentiful and traffic less severe than when we evacuated during Irma, which was a smaller hurricane than Ian. I find this deeply worrying.
Home is in St. Pete, 14 feet up and about 2000 feet from the water. Ten feet of storm surge (they're forecasting less than this now, up to eight) at high tide still wouldn't swamp us, but we still sandbagged the garage, stowed anything that could reasonably be considered a wind hazard, plywooded the windows, emptied the freezer, cut the water and power--in other words, all the stuff you're supposed to do. I hope it's still there to come back to.
But good lord, the neighborhoods around us... we have a friend who lives a block from a marina and the water encroaches on her front step during heavy thunderstorms. What's eight feet of storm surge going to look like there?
And even if we luck out again and it shifts south more and rips through Fort Myers or Venice or something, our reward is to come back and play the same game again with dice that are just a tiny bit more loaded against us--stronger storms later in the year, water a couple of degrees warmer and a few inches higher than before.
posted by lorddimwit at 9:55 AM on September 27, 2022 [25 favorites]
Home is in St. Pete, 14 feet up and about 2000 feet from the water. Ten feet of storm surge (they're forecasting less than this now, up to eight) at high tide still wouldn't swamp us, but we still sandbagged the garage, stowed anything that could reasonably be considered a wind hazard, plywooded the windows, emptied the freezer, cut the water and power--in other words, all the stuff you're supposed to do. I hope it's still there to come back to.
But good lord, the neighborhoods around us... we have a friend who lives a block from a marina and the water encroaches on her front step during heavy thunderstorms. What's eight feet of storm surge going to look like there?
And even if we luck out again and it shifts south more and rips through Fort Myers or Venice or something, our reward is to come back and play the same game again with dice that are just a tiny bit more loaded against us--stronger storms later in the year, water a couple of degrees warmer and a few inches higher than before.
posted by lorddimwit at 9:55 AM on September 27, 2022 [25 favorites]
people feel like it can't happen
This exact attitude fucked over so many people here in St. Augustine during Matthew in 2016. A bunch of "my house was built in the [40's-50's-60's], it's been here longer than you, I'm not worried" okay dawg but the land it was built on wasn't even land prior to like 1930. Turns out all that infill, which had never been tested by a major storm, was extraordinarily effective at channeling water directly in to people's homes. For months after the storm, every single house in some neighborhoods had piles of carpet and flooring and cabinets and waterlogged furniture stacked out on the curb.
posted by saladin at 10:04 AM on September 27, 2022 [10 favorites]
This exact attitude fucked over so many people here in St. Augustine during Matthew in 2016. A bunch of "my house was built in the [40's-50's-60's], it's been here longer than you, I'm not worried" okay dawg but the land it was built on wasn't even land prior to like 1930. Turns out all that infill, which had never been tested by a major storm, was extraordinarily effective at channeling water directly in to people's homes. For months after the storm, every single house in some neighborhoods had piles of carpet and flooring and cabinets and waterlogged furniture stacked out on the curb.
posted by saladin at 10:04 AM on September 27, 2022 [10 favorites]
My mom passed a few years ago, and I've started to feel a little attached to my ex's mom -- and she and his dad are in St. Petersburg. Apparently their house is "pretty storm worthy", and I believe this is true -- they seem very smart and deliberate in their thinking generally. Also, travel for them is just ridiculously hard. I'm wishing I could be there to help, though.
posted by amtho at 10:43 AM on September 27, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by amtho at 10:43 AM on September 27, 2022 [2 favorites]
Chiming in here from Fort Myers, watching the radar showing Ian turning eastward/right even sooner than the models predicted. It may be looking cautiously better for Tampa, but it's looking increasingly worse for those of us in Cape Coral and Fort Myers. And while there are plenty of affluent, well-insured folks living on the barrier islands, there are also a lot of non-affluent retirees there that bought in when it was still affordable; Sanibel/Captiva, Pine Island, and even Marco Island are going to be hit hard. I was a mail carrier on Sanibel when Charley went through; the devastation was extensive and took a long time from which to recover. It literally plowed a new pass through Captiva Island. There are places in Charlotte County that still have damage from Charley. And Charley was a compact storm, notably smaller in diameter than Ian.
posted by Fiberoptic Zebroid and The Hypnagogic Jerks at 10:55 AM on September 27, 2022 [12 favorites]
> The Q set are viewing Ian as a hoax.I hate that my second thought was "Like the covid deniers, maybe this will thin out the pro-DeSantis voting ranks enough for him to lose. It feels like milquetoast Crist isn't even trying hard to make his case to be governor." I hate what I'm becoming because of DeSantis, TFG, and their ilk.
This will get people killed.
posted by Fiberoptic Zebroid and The Hypnagogic Jerks at 10:55 AM on September 27, 2022 [12 favorites]
Natural? Or should we call them climate-related? Or something even blunter.
I have taken to using "climate cataclysm".
If there ever was any reason before, there is no longer any reason to pretend that it is otherwise.
posted by Mike Mongo at 12:25 PM on September 27, 2022 [7 favorites]
I have taken to using "climate cataclysm".
If there ever was any reason before, there is no longer any reason to pretend that it is otherwise.
posted by Mike Mongo at 12:25 PM on September 27, 2022 [7 favorites]
I'm supposed to fly into Atlanta on Thursday and back home on Friday. How likely is this to actually happen?
posted by rhymedirective at 12:53 PM on September 27, 2022
posted by rhymedirective at 12:53 PM on September 27, 2022
Grandma planned a big Disney World trip for the grandkids (and parents) for this week. We were due to fly out early Saturday and bailed out at (practically) the last minute because of the ominous forecast. We are out a good chunk of money but, dang, I am not regretting that decision right now.
posted by scottatdrake at 12:55 PM on September 27, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by scottatdrake at 12:55 PM on September 27, 2022 [2 favorites]
I just saw live footage from Key West -- people are out in the storm taking selfies at Southernmost Point while the waves wash up over the wall.
posted by JanetLand at 1:09 PM on September 27, 2022
posted by JanetLand at 1:09 PM on September 27, 2022
whatever does in the last human of earth, there's a non-zero chance a selfie will be involved
posted by pyramid termite at 1:12 PM on September 27, 2022 [20 favorites]
posted by pyramid termite at 1:12 PM on September 27, 2022 [20 favorites]
"I'm supposed to fly into Atlanta on Thursday and back home on Friday. How likely is this to actually happen?"
If you're flying in Thursday morning, I imagine you'd make it without too much worry, especially with the current eastward lean. Flying out on Friday is gonna be harder. If you're flying out late you've got a chance, but you shouldn't be surprised if you're in Atlanta an extra day .
posted by oddman at 1:15 PM on September 27, 2022 [1 favorite]
If you're flying in Thursday morning, I imagine you'd make it without too much worry, especially with the current eastward lean. Flying out on Friday is gonna be harder. If you're flying out late you've got a chance, but you shouldn't be surprised if you're in Atlanta an extra day .
posted by oddman at 1:15 PM on September 27, 2022 [1 favorite]
AI’s idea of the last selfies on Earth show horrifying results
posted by tiny frying pan at 1:16 PM on September 27, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by tiny frying pan at 1:16 PM on September 27, 2022 [3 favorites]
I hope that is not in bad taste. Now that I posted it. I am hoping for good outcomes for all in the path of this thing.
posted by tiny frying pan at 1:16 PM on September 27, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by tiny frying pan at 1:16 PM on September 27, 2022 [1 favorite]
Tell me more about Mango Farm Island.
posted by ryanrs at 11:30 AM on September 27
Lol, happy to oblige as it will keep me distracted from checking Wunderground every 5 minutes.
Didn’t intend to give the impression that my property was the entire island. The place is named Pine Island and it's about the size of Manhattan, population 9000 (depending on what time of year you count). It's connected to the mainland of Cape Coral by a thin two lane causeway which is looking more and more likely to be flooded or worse in the next 72 hours. If this happens the only way to get on or off is by boat or helicopter.
Due to geological reasons I guess, there are essentially no beaches and virtually the entire island is zoned for agriculture use. Because of these factors and the fact there is almost never a frost means the conditions are ideal for mango and other tropical fruit farms (lychees, sopadillas, key limes, etc.)
My mother bought the property off the internet (sight unseen!) 10 years ago. Ironically, because the the last major hurricane (Charlie) wiped out the crop and the owner had to sell.
I inherited approximately 80 mango trees and a number of other fruit trees when my mom died this March and got a crash course in mango farming this summer. (Side note: Noone gets rich off of growing mangos. The first crop was 149 lbs sold at $3.00 a pound of which I split the proceeds with the folks who actually picked them. Grand total $223.50)
>> Sanibel/Captiva, Pine Island, and even Marco Island are going to be hit hard.
So yeah, things are not looking great. Many of the folks I have met down there over the past 9 months are wisely evacuating and with a potential storm surge of 5-7 feet and who knows what MPH wind, I'm trying to cultivate my zen self and realize it's all out of my control.
posted by jeremias at 1:24 PM on September 27, 2022 [29 favorites]
posted by ryanrs at 11:30 AM on September 27
Lol, happy to oblige as it will keep me distracted from checking Wunderground every 5 minutes.
Didn’t intend to give the impression that my property was the entire island. The place is named Pine Island and it's about the size of Manhattan, population 9000 (depending on what time of year you count). It's connected to the mainland of Cape Coral by a thin two lane causeway which is looking more and more likely to be flooded or worse in the next 72 hours. If this happens the only way to get on or off is by boat or helicopter.
Due to geological reasons I guess, there are essentially no beaches and virtually the entire island is zoned for agriculture use. Because of these factors and the fact there is almost never a frost means the conditions are ideal for mango and other tropical fruit farms (lychees, sopadillas, key limes, etc.)
My mother bought the property off the internet (sight unseen!) 10 years ago. Ironically, because the the last major hurricane (Charlie) wiped out the crop and the owner had to sell.
I inherited approximately 80 mango trees and a number of other fruit trees when my mom died this March and got a crash course in mango farming this summer. (Side note: Noone gets rich off of growing mangos. The first crop was 149 lbs sold at $3.00 a pound of which I split the proceeds with the folks who actually picked them. Grand total $223.50)
>> Sanibel/Captiva, Pine Island, and even Marco Island are going to be hit hard.
So yeah, things are not looking great. Many of the folks I have met down there over the past 9 months are wisely evacuating and with a potential storm surge of 5-7 feet and who knows what MPH wind, I'm trying to cultivate my zen self and realize it's all out of my control.
posted by jeremias at 1:24 PM on September 27, 2022 [29 favorites]
My wife asked her cousin in Tampa if they need to evacuate for the hurricane. They have chickens. I said no problem, we have oil and breadcrumbs. She asked if they have a way of transporting chickens and I said that chicken is usually transported via bucket. Anyway, they are staying home.
posted by Servo5678 at 1:53 PM on September 27, 2022 [20 favorites]
posted by Servo5678 at 1:53 PM on September 27, 2022 [20 favorites]
In addition to the storm surge, it's looking like somebody is going to get smacked with at least a foot of rain, and quite possibly twice that.
So far only about 3" in very overcast Broward.
posted by wierdo at 2:03 PM on September 27, 2022 [1 favorite]
So far only about 3" in very overcast Broward.
posted by wierdo at 2:03 PM on September 27, 2022 [1 favorite]
Manmade profit driven climate catastrophe murder is my go to. We are already seeing fatalities from the climate change, sadly.
posted by Jacen at 2:43 PM on September 27, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by Jacen at 2:43 PM on September 27, 2022 [2 favorites]
. The place is named Pine Island and it's about the size of Manhattan, population 9000 (depending on what time of year you count). It's connected to the mainland of Cape Coral by a thin two lane causeway which is looking more and more likely to be flooded or worse in the next 72 hours. If this happens the only way to get on or off is by boat or helicopter.
I KNOW THIS MANGO FARM. I spent the winter in 2014 on Pine Island, in a little pepto bismol pink trailer that a friend of a friend let me rent for the winter for cash. I always wondered about that farm, it’s so danged incongruous, and now I have answers!
posted by Silvery Fish at 3:30 PM on September 27, 2022 [49 favorites]
I KNOW THIS MANGO FARM. I spent the winter in 2014 on Pine Island, in a little pepto bismol pink trailer that a friend of a friend let me rent for the winter for cash. I always wondered about that farm, it’s so danged incongruous, and now I have answers!
posted by Silvery Fish at 3:30 PM on September 27, 2022 [49 favorites]
She asked if they have a way of transporting chickens and I said that chicken is usually transported via bucket.
I can't stop laughing at this.
whatever does in the last human of earth, there's a non-zero chance a selfie will be involved
Absolutely true (spoiler link within for a movie).
posted by jenfullmoon at 3:30 PM on September 27, 2022 [3 favorites]
I can't stop laughing at this.
whatever does in the last human of earth, there's a non-zero chance a selfie will be involved
Absolutely true (spoiler link within for a movie).
posted by jenfullmoon at 3:30 PM on September 27, 2022 [3 favorites]
Today in class I asked my students (slide):
With global warming the world will soon look like:
A. The 2004 movie “The Day After Tomorrow.”
B. The 2015 movie “Mad Max: Fury Road.”
C. The 2021 movie “Don’t Look Up” (we’ll all die from a meteor strike first).
D. The 1995 movie “Waterworld.”
E. The 1995 movie “12 Monkeys” (bio-apocalypse)
Grrr. Thank you very much Baby Boomers for doing nothing for years.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 3:51 PM on September 27, 2022 [5 favorites]
With global warming the world will soon look like:
A. The 2004 movie “The Day After Tomorrow.”
B. The 2015 movie “Mad Max: Fury Road.”
C. The 2021 movie “Don’t Look Up” (we’ll all die from a meteor strike first).
D. The 1995 movie “Waterworld.”
E. The 1995 movie “12 Monkeys” (bio-apocalypse)
Grrr. Thank you very much Baby Boomers for doing nothing for years.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 3:51 PM on September 27, 2022 [5 favorites]
What was the answer? F, all of the above at the exact same time?
posted by jenfullmoon at 3:55 PM on September 27, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by jenfullmoon at 3:55 PM on September 27, 2022 [4 favorites]
They chose mad max. Probably because more had seen it.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 3:58 PM on September 27, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 3:58 PM on September 27, 2022 [1 favorite]
F: The 2013 movie "Snowpiercer"
posted by hydra77 at 4:04 PM on September 27, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by hydra77 at 4:04 PM on September 27, 2022 [3 favorites]
Um, dances_with_sneetches, how old are your students? I'm upset about the world for sure -- but I'm not sure how I feel about making the idea more vivid for kids...
posted by amtho at 4:11 PM on September 27, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by amtho at 4:11 PM on September 27, 2022 [1 favorite]
Hopefully Juniors or Seniors in HS (or equivalent!), goodness knows I hope Kid Objects doesn't get around to seeing the likes of 12 Monkeys before that age.
posted by sharp pointy objects at 4:14 PM on September 27, 2022
posted by sharp pointy objects at 4:14 PM on September 27, 2022
> Perhaps we could try sending the Governor out in a small boat as a sacrifice to the Hungry Storm?
that's australia's plan...
posted by Clowder of bats at 4:20 PM on September 27, 2022 [7 favorites]
that's australia's plan...
posted by Clowder of bats at 4:20 PM on September 27, 2022 [7 favorites]
I work for an organization in St. Pete, but I work remotely from Arizona, so I've been watching this unfold over Slack for the last few days (and feeling a mix of a little guilty and a lot thankful that I got out -- I was on site last week). We happen to have a couple of former atmospheric scientists on staff, so we've been getting regular updates in more detail than I'm used to getting. Paraphrasing some of what I've heard recently:
Ian appears to be undergoing a process where the original eye wall (high-wind region encircling the eye) is pushed out by the formation of a new, intense eye wall. This typically means that the storm as a whole gets a little weaker, but the region of hurricane-force winds expands. But there's a ton of uncertainty associated with this process, and so the path and intensity of Ian is a good deal more unpredictable than is usual this late in a storm's life.
posted by egregious theorem at 4:29 PM on September 27, 2022 [6 favorites]
Ian appears to be undergoing a process where the original eye wall (high-wind region encircling the eye) is pushed out by the formation of a new, intense eye wall. This typically means that the storm as a whole gets a little weaker, but the region of hurricane-force winds expands. But there's a ton of uncertainty associated with this process, and so the path and intensity of Ian is a good deal more unpredictable than is usual this late in a storm's life.
posted by egregious theorem at 4:29 PM on September 27, 2022 [6 favorites]
And suddenly I'm feeling like I'm back in Oklahoma, keeping an eye on the radar velocity to see if I need to go hide from my windows for a while. I was watching this velocity couplet tighten up and then sure enough, a few minutes ago my phone starts blaring the EAS alert for a tornado warning. Fun times.
posted by wierdo at 4:30 PM on September 27, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by wierdo at 4:30 PM on September 27, 2022 [1 favorite]
Little Fiona was not at her worst when she hit Port aux Basques up here - the predicted storm surge of 8 to 10 feet, had been hurriedly upgraded to 16 feet, and then was actually measured at 32 feet when it was happening.
So please, if you are in Trimaris/Florida take it very seriously. Storm surges can go a looong way inland and when they run up to an immovable barrier they can go straight up a concrete embankment or breakwater. There is so much weight of water behind them they defy gravity and the water piles up in a tower.
posted by Jane the Brown at 4:39 PM on September 27, 2022 [4 favorites]
So please, if you are in Trimaris/Florida take it very seriously. Storm surges can go a looong way inland and when they run up to an immovable barrier they can go straight up a concrete embankment or breakwater. There is so much weight of water behind them they defy gravity and the water piles up in a tower.
posted by Jane the Brown at 4:39 PM on September 27, 2022 [4 favorites]
I KNOW THIS MANGO FARM. I spent the winter in 2014 on Pine Island, in a little pepto bismol pink trailer that a friend of a friend let me rent for the winter for cash. I always wondered about that farm, it’s so danged incongruous, and now I have answers!
posted by Silvery Fish at 6:30 PM on September 27
To be fair, there are lots of mango farms on Pine Island besides mine.
However, if the trailer was located in an actual trailer park, then the chances are pretty high as there's one right across the street.
posted by jeremias at 4:43 PM on September 27, 2022 [15 favorites]
posted by Silvery Fish at 6:30 PM on September 27
To be fair, there are lots of mango farms on Pine Island besides mine.
However, if the trailer was located in an actual trailer park, then the chances are pretty high as there's one right across the street.
posted by jeremias at 4:43 PM on September 27, 2022 [15 favorites]
Medical students. And we have all just gone through Fiona with many of us still having no electricity. There is a grim, gallows humors among medical students in general.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 4:57 PM on September 27, 2022 [11 favorites]
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 4:57 PM on September 27, 2022 [11 favorites]
I'm supposed to be in Clearwater in a couple of weeks. Our conference location is a hotel right on Clearwater Beach. I'm in wait-and-see mode. But if the storm hits badly, I have the luxury of just staying home while a lot of people are going to see their lives disrupted or even wrecked. Here's hoping the storm loses steam and hits somewhere that it will cause the least amount of damage. (A co-worker says "well Florida is used to hurricanes and the storm will be long past once we get there, it'll be fine" and well, um, a big storm surge kinda looks like it could shut down that area for a while.)
posted by azpenguin at 5:12 PM on September 27, 2022
posted by azpenguin at 5:12 PM on September 27, 2022
it’s impossible to know right now but if the area sees 4 to 7 feet of storm surge and 12 inches of rain, the cleanup and recovery will be months, not weeks. clearwater beach is a barrier island, and if there’s serious damage to the causeway to the beach it might be days before anyone can even get to the hotels much less start repairs. but it might not be as bad as that in the end
posted by dis_integration at 5:45 PM on September 27, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by dis_integration at 5:45 PM on September 27, 2022 [2 favorites]
We finally got the right generator (240V, don't ask) to go with the new interlock and remote plug, and I can actually power my house the next time we go dark because of hurricane/blizzard/windstorm/fallen tree limb.
This used to happen a handful of times per year but now that I am equipped, I figure a small umbrella of protection will shelter my neighborhood.
I wish I could send that shelter out to the folks on Florida's coast. Your Governor is a POS, but none of you deserve this storm!
posted by wenestvedt at 6:39 PM on September 27, 2022 [4 favorites]
This used to happen a handful of times per year but now that I am equipped, I figure a small umbrella of protection will shelter my neighborhood.
I wish I could send that shelter out to the folks on Florida's coast. Your Governor is a POS, but none of you deserve this storm!
posted by wenestvedt at 6:39 PM on September 27, 2022 [4 favorites]
Some baby boomers did a lot to address this. I have never not done. But, it is a lot like being a wind up toy and bouncing off the well established deflecfion walls.
posted by Oyéah at 7:05 PM on September 27, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by Oyéah at 7:05 PM on September 27, 2022 [2 favorites]
MetaFilter: Tell me more about Mango Farm Island.
I'm worried about y'all in Florida. Hoping for the best.
posted by lukemeister at 9:25 PM on September 27, 2022 [8 favorites]
I'm worried about y'all in Florida. Hoping for the best.
posted by lukemeister at 9:25 PM on September 27, 2022 [8 favorites]
When this is over, I'd like to visit the Mango Farm. But not for a while, you don't need more hurricane gawkers post-storm.
Right now in Fort Myers, we're still getting buckets of rain with occasional tornado spin-ups across the lower portion of the state. Current track seems to be taking Ian close to 2004 Charley's track. Sanibel & Captiva are most likely going to take a direct hit, before the eyewall moves on to the mainland in southern Charlotte County/northern Lee County. So Pine Island and Fort Myers Beach will see storm surge, flooding, wind damage too, as well as Punta Gorda, Cape Coral, and Fort Myers on the mainland. Powers on for now, but I expect it will go out around sunrise or so.
This is going to suuuuuuuck.
posted by Fiberoptic Zebroid and The Hypnagogic Jerks at 10:07 PM on September 27, 2022 [5 favorites]
Right now in Fort Myers, we're still getting buckets of rain with occasional tornado spin-ups across the lower portion of the state. Current track seems to be taking Ian close to 2004 Charley's track. Sanibel & Captiva are most likely going to take a direct hit, before the eyewall moves on to the mainland in southern Charlotte County/northern Lee County. So Pine Island and Fort Myers Beach will see storm surge, flooding, wind damage too, as well as Punta Gorda, Cape Coral, and Fort Myers on the mainland. Powers on for now, but I expect it will go out around sunrise or so.
This is going to suuuuuuuck.
posted by Fiberoptic Zebroid and The Hypnagogic Jerks at 10:07 PM on September 27, 2022 [5 favorites]
If you’ve never seen a FL local newscast on hurricane day, they are all the same. “You’re looking at a live radar image of Hurricane Ian as it churns towards a landfall somewhere on the FL coast later today. We have live team coverage from around the state.”
[3x4 grid of reporters standing on beaches, at shelters, at city hall, in neighborhoods, etc.]
“But first let’s go to meteorologist Dalton Galloway with the latest. Dalton?”
“Thank you, Svetlana. Overnight the storm has continued to wobble and you can see eyewall organization…”
Then they go to a reporter on the beach showing people irresponsibility surfing on the tall waves, then to a neighborhood expected to maybe flood, then to a shelter where people are scared. It’s the same script every time.
Local news performs a valuable service during storms (between commercials for car lots and injury attorneys) but they clearly fill time and dramatacize when nothing urgent is happening.
posted by Servo5678 at 4:59 AM on September 28, 2022 [6 favorites]
[3x4 grid of reporters standing on beaches, at shelters, at city hall, in neighborhoods, etc.]
“But first let’s go to meteorologist Dalton Galloway with the latest. Dalton?”
“Thank you, Svetlana. Overnight the storm has continued to wobble and you can see eyewall organization…”
Then they go to a reporter on the beach showing people irresponsibility surfing on the tall waves, then to a neighborhood expected to maybe flood, then to a shelter where people are scared. It’s the same script every time.
Local news performs a valuable service during storms (between commercials for car lots and injury attorneys) but they clearly fill time and dramatacize when nothing urgent is happening.
posted by Servo5678 at 4:59 AM on September 28, 2022 [6 favorites]
Looks like one of the storm-chasers is streaming from Pine Island right now. Already getting pretty windy.
posted by credulous at 5:00 AM on September 28, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by credulous at 5:00 AM on September 28, 2022 [5 favorites]
When this is over, I'd like to visit the Mango Farm. But not for a while, you don't need more hurricane gawkers post-storm.
You have an open invitation! I'll have to fly down from Boston when this is all over.
Thanks for the updates and your prediction about the power is uncanny, I have remote access to our generator and it kicked in at 6:41 this morning. It's connected to a propane tank, not sure how long it will keep going for.
The internet is still working though and my front security camera is still accessible for now. From what I can see on the camera it's lightly rainy and winds are gusty but not consistently strong. No flooding visible...yet. We know that's going to change.
posted by jeremias at 5:09 AM on September 28, 2022 [5 favorites]
You have an open invitation! I'll have to fly down from Boston when this is all over.
Thanks for the updates and your prediction about the power is uncanny, I have remote access to our generator and it kicked in at 6:41 this morning. It's connected to a propane tank, not sure how long it will keep going for.
The internet is still working though and my front security camera is still accessible for now. From what I can see on the camera it's lightly rainy and winds are gusty but not consistently strong. No flooding visible...yet. We know that's going to change.
posted by jeremias at 5:09 AM on September 28, 2022 [5 favorites]
So, right now a maximum Category 4 (155 mph) and headed just north of Fort Myers. In other news, I got electricity back this morning.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 5:20 AM on September 28, 2022 [13 favorites]
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 5:20 AM on September 28, 2022 [13 favorites]
Looks like one of the storm-chasers is streaming from Pine Island right now. Already getting pretty windy
That crosses the line from reckless to irresponsible. The elevation of Pine Island is 4 — yep, 4 feet above sea level. Yes, the newer construction there incorporates concrete footings, elevated dwellings, and hurricane-certified joist ties, but none of that is going to matter if a now-near cat 5 pushes 8-14 feet of storm surge in front of 155mph winds.
I moved from Pine Island to New Mexico; the state of arroyos and annual deaths by flash floods. There is a saying we perennially shared with tourists and non-residents hellbent on hiking the arroyos during rainy seasons: water always wins. Those concrete footings will do nothing if the surrounding firmament washes away.
All of that said: may this storm pass without loss of life. Travel mercies to all.
posted by Silvery Fish at 5:26 AM on September 28, 2022 [12 favorites]
That crosses the line from reckless to irresponsible. The elevation of Pine Island is 4 — yep, 4 feet above sea level. Yes, the newer construction there incorporates concrete footings, elevated dwellings, and hurricane-certified joist ties, but none of that is going to matter if a now-near cat 5 pushes 8-14 feet of storm surge in front of 155mph winds.
I moved from Pine Island to New Mexico; the state of arroyos and annual deaths by flash floods. There is a saying we perennially shared with tourists and non-residents hellbent on hiking the arroyos during rainy seasons: water always wins. Those concrete footings will do nothing if the surrounding firmament washes away.
All of that said: may this storm pass without loss of life. Travel mercies to all.
posted by Silvery Fish at 5:26 AM on September 28, 2022 [12 favorites]
Maybe Metafilter can band together and buy a mango farm? I am in.
posted by InkaLomax at 5:34 AM on September 28, 2022 [15 favorites]
posted by InkaLomax at 5:34 AM on September 28, 2022 [15 favorites]
At 155 mph, Ian would be the fifth strongest storm to landfall in the U.S. with records going back to the 1850s. Huge eye for such a strong storm.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 5:47 AM on September 28, 2022 [7 favorites]
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 5:47 AM on September 28, 2022 [7 favorites]
Maybe Metafilter can band together and buy a mango farm? I am in.
MetaFilter, Inc.
Mango Farm Island.
Any other questions?
posted by wenestvedt at 5:49 AM on September 28, 2022 [24 favorites]
MetaFilter, Inc.
Mango Farm Island.
Any other questions?
posted by wenestvedt at 5:49 AM on September 28, 2022 [24 favorites]
We’d have to spell it MangoFarm.
posted by Servo5678 at 5:58 AM on September 28, 2022 [22 favorites]
posted by Servo5678 at 5:58 AM on September 28, 2022 [22 favorites]
Y’all so ambitious. I was just thinking of a Mefi Mango Farm Meetup (pre hurricane, if we’d known). Picture it, mangos, mangroves, mosquitoes. We could camp out!
posted by TWinbrook8 at 6:01 AM on September 28, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by TWinbrook8 at 6:01 AM on September 28, 2022 [2 favorites]
But the real question is whether you pronouce it May-Fa or Mah-Fa.
posted by egregious theorem at 6:03 AM on September 28, 2022 [8 favorites]
posted by egregious theorem at 6:03 AM on September 28, 2022 [8 favorites]
I have no idea how they got these cats into those mango trees, or why.
posted by azpenguin at 6:11 AM on September 28, 2022 [9 favorites]
posted by azpenguin at 6:11 AM on September 28, 2022 [9 favorites]
I mean, considering I have no hope of selling this place any day,year, decade soon. I am cool with any or all of the above options.
Y’all so ambitious. I was just thinking of a Mefi Mango Farm Meetup (pre hurricane, if we’d known). Picture it, mangos, mangroves, mosquitoes. We could camp out!
There is (or perhaps was) plenty of room for camping! Conservatively you could fit a hundred or more tents, the property is 7 acres. Here's a mini-gallery of MangoFarm Island.
However, the one thing you left out of the scenario was the wild hogs, they are a problem down there. Oh and there are also peacocks roaming around for some reason, and the occasional gator, it goes without saying.
(This is all definitely gallows humor, I'm in full acceptance that this is not going to end well.)
posted by jeremias at 6:30 AM on September 28, 2022 [13 favorites]
Y’all so ambitious. I was just thinking of a Mefi Mango Farm Meetup (pre hurricane, if we’d known). Picture it, mangos, mangroves, mosquitoes. We could camp out!
There is (or perhaps was) plenty of room for camping! Conservatively you could fit a hundred or more tents, the property is 7 acres. Here's a mini-gallery of MangoFarm Island.
However, the one thing you left out of the scenario was the wild hogs, they are a problem down there. Oh and there are also peacocks roaming around for some reason, and the occasional gator, it goes without saying.
(This is all definitely gallows humor, I'm in full acceptance that this is not going to end well.)
posted by jeremias at 6:30 AM on September 28, 2022 [13 favorites]
This animation shows the storm surge coverage in Cape Coral / Fort Myers.
And this chart shows the damage of increasingly stronger hurricanes in relation to a minimal category 1. If you have been through a minimal category 1, a 155 mph storm causes 333 times as much damage.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 6:40 AM on September 28, 2022 [7 favorites]
And this chart shows the damage of increasingly stronger hurricanes in relation to a minimal category 1. If you have been through a minimal category 1, a 155 mph storm causes 333 times as much damage.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 6:40 AM on September 28, 2022 [7 favorites]
MangoFarm Island Fest will be the new Fyre Fest. Except the pigs will actually be pigs
posted by glaucon at 6:41 AM on September 28, 2022 [6 favorites]
posted by glaucon at 6:41 AM on September 28, 2022 [6 favorites]
THEY CLOSED THE WAFFLE HOUSE
posted by seanmpuckett at 6:42 AM on September 28, 2022 [31 favorites]
posted by seanmpuckett at 6:42 AM on September 28, 2022 [31 favorites]
My parents are inland near Fort Myers. They put the storm shutters up on Monday and have a generator. As of 8:30 this morning, they still had power. They both expect to lose it sometime later this morning as the storm gets closer to making landfall.
I texted my parents on Friday, going, hey, did you hear about this storm that's actually just a tropical depression? But it's forecast to be a major hurricane making landfall near Fort Myers on Wednesday? They had not heard about it, and seemed skeptical that the NWS had made such a alarming prediction five days' out. But it's looking like that Friday forecast was pretty darn accurate. I'm really glad I was able to give them a few extra days' warning to prep.
Additionally, I spent a good amount of time on Pine Island as a kid. My old babysitter used to live there! Those pictures of the mango farm look familiar, like I've been by it before.
posted by PearlRose at 6:54 AM on September 28, 2022 [5 favorites]
I texted my parents on Friday, going, hey, did you hear about this storm that's actually just a tropical depression? But it's forecast to be a major hurricane making landfall near Fort Myers on Wednesday? They had not heard about it, and seemed skeptical that the NWS had made such a alarming prediction five days' out. But it's looking like that Friday forecast was pretty darn accurate. I'm really glad I was able to give them a few extra days' warning to prep.
Additionally, I spent a good amount of time on Pine Island as a kid. My old babysitter used to live there! Those pictures of the mango farm look familiar, like I've been by it before.
posted by PearlRose at 6:54 AM on September 28, 2022 [5 favorites]
My good college friends live in one of the small beach towns south of Sarasota where they expect a direct hit. She evacuated with the kids but he has to stay and work at the ER...
*fingers crossed*
posted by schyler523 at 7:07 AM on September 28, 2022 [2 favorites]
*fingers crossed*
posted by schyler523 at 7:07 AM on September 28, 2022 [2 favorites]
I am sorry jeremias, that property looks gorgeous (except for the wild hogs and gators, fortunately peacocks are benign).
posted by TWinbrook8 at 7:31 AM on September 28, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by TWinbrook8 at 7:31 AM on September 28, 2022 [2 favorites]
This animation shows the storm surge coverage in Cape Coral / Fort Myers.
OMFG. I can't even...I think I need to stop looking at everything now, it's not doing me any good.
Going to go tend my garden and pet my dog.
posted by jeremias at 7:35 AM on September 28, 2022 [12 favorites]
OMFG. I can't even...I think I need to stop looking at everything now, it's not doing me any good.
Going to go tend my garden and pet my dog.
posted by jeremias at 7:35 AM on September 28, 2022 [12 favorites]
I'd think that of the three animals listed, alligators are the least likely to mess with humans
posted by Jacen at 7:44 AM on September 28, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Jacen at 7:44 AM on September 28, 2022 [1 favorite]
I would absoLUTEly be down to enter into a land purchase co-op for MangoFarm Island, with the assumption that (a) we can legally set up some sort of a HipCamp destination there; (b) that all profits are returned to fund MeFi; and (c) I get a yearly slot to serve as Camp Host (assuming there’s a small trailer w/ ac and a lanai available for the purpose).
posted by Silvery Fish at 7:50 AM on September 28, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by Silvery Fish at 7:50 AM on September 28, 2022 [5 favorites]
Livecam from Naples, FL
Livecam from Fort Myers
posted by gwint at 7:53 AM on September 28, 2022 [2 favorites]
Livecam from Fort Myers
posted by gwint at 7:53 AM on September 28, 2022 [2 favorites]
Oof, that was quick, Fort Myers cam already down.
posted by gwint at 7:58 AM on September 28, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by gwint at 7:58 AM on September 28, 2022 [1 favorite]
All the way up in St. Augustine report: strong gusting wind and blowing rain is already here. We're only predicted to get max 5 feet of storm surge but spray is already cresting the seawall downtown. Most of the businesses downtown are already boarded and bagged although some are still in progress. The Tiger convenience store on San Marco is still open and has beer.
Update as I'm writing this: rain just intensified quite a bit.
posted by saladin at 8:04 AM on September 28, 2022 [3 favorites]
Update as I'm writing this: rain just intensified quite a bit.
posted by saladin at 8:04 AM on September 28, 2022 [3 favorites]
Livecam from Cape Coral
Things are intensifying quickly.
posted by gwint at 8:04 AM on September 28, 2022 [2 favorites]
Things are intensifying quickly.
posted by gwint at 8:04 AM on September 28, 2022 [2 favorites]
That's a lot of water coming in and not going back out.
posted by seanmpuckett at 8:09 AM on September 28, 2022
posted by seanmpuckett at 8:09 AM on September 28, 2022
Just tuned into the Naples Livecam just in time to see two people go sprinting along the shore - I very nearly yelled at them through my screen to GET BACK INSIDE WHAT IS WRONG WITH YOU
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 8:16 AM on September 28, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 8:16 AM on September 28, 2022 [1 favorite]
I saw them, too, Empress Callipygos, and had a similar reaction. And if they do end up needing rescue, they'll be putting more people at risk than just themselves. So stupid.
posted by Chanther at 8:20 AM on September 28, 2022
posted by Chanther at 8:20 AM on September 28, 2022
The model is predicting a negative 11.5 foot sea level excursion in Tampa (followed by a 4 to 5 swell). By going south, the storm is sucking the ocean from Tampa bay.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 8:20 AM on September 28, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 8:20 AM on September 28, 2022 [2 favorites]
That Ft. Myers cam seems to be down now too.
posted by Melismata at 8:47 AM on September 28, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Melismata at 8:47 AM on September 28, 2022 [1 favorite]
I have no idea how they got these cats into those mango trees, or why.
Does anybody eat the mangoes down here?
the one thing you left out of the scenario was the wild hogs
BBQ!!
posted by Greg_Ace at 8:48 AM on September 28, 2022 [4 favorites]
Does anybody eat the mangoes down here?
the one thing you left out of the scenario was the wild hogs
BBQ!!
posted by Greg_Ace at 8:48 AM on September 28, 2022 [4 favorites]
Eric Berger of Space City Weather, writing at Ars Technica: As a meteorologist, Hurricane Ian is the nightmare storm I worry about most.
As a forecaster you worry about three primary threats from hurricanes—strong winds, storm surge, and inland rainfall. Usually a hurricane brings one or two of these threats to a region, but not typically all three. [...] Ian is a monster that will bring all three threats into Southwest Florida with devastating effect.posted by mbrubeck at 8:57 AM on September 28, 2022 [8 favorites]
Ok, I really am going to disconnect now, this is getting horrific. But dances_with_sneetches that animation you linked to may very well have saved someone's life.
As soon as I saw that, I remembered a text from 24 hours ago where the neighbors mentioned that that although he sent his family off island, a caretaker who works for them (across the street, yes in the trailer park) was planning on riding it out.
I called them to ask them if he was still there.
He was.
I forwarded them the animation and implored them to call him and demand he GTFO out of there.
They kind of hesitated, so I said "Sharon [not her real name], he will die if he stays there. Call him. Tell him to climb in his truck immediately and drive."
Also the idiot weather livestreamer was actually handy, because I could see where he was and that the causeway (at the time) was still open. Not sure if it still is.
So anyway, apparently they convinced him and he made it off island.
But I've been in a touch with a number of people down there over the last few days, and "reading the room" as it were. The general vibe was that noone was expecting this to be this bad and so there weren't urgent evacuations.
This is going to be a catastrophe and it's hard to imagine a scenario where people aren't going to be killed. I hope with all my heart I'm wrong about that.
posted by jeremias at 9:31 AM on September 28, 2022 [40 favorites]
As soon as I saw that, I remembered a text from 24 hours ago where the neighbors mentioned that that although he sent his family off island, a caretaker who works for them (across the street, yes in the trailer park) was planning on riding it out.
I called them to ask them if he was still there.
He was.
I forwarded them the animation and implored them to call him and demand he GTFO out of there.
They kind of hesitated, so I said "Sharon [not her real name], he will die if he stays there. Call him. Tell him to climb in his truck immediately and drive."
Also the idiot weather livestreamer was actually handy, because I could see where he was and that the causeway (at the time) was still open. Not sure if it still is.
So anyway, apparently they convinced him and he made it off island.
But I've been in a touch with a number of people down there over the last few days, and "reading the room" as it were. The general vibe was that noone was expecting this to be this bad and so there weren't urgent evacuations.
This is going to be a catastrophe and it's hard to imagine a scenario where people aren't going to be killed. I hope with all my heart I'm wrong about that.
posted by jeremias at 9:31 AM on September 28, 2022 [40 favorites]
I typed in "Pine Island, FL" into Google Maps, and it showed an island about 40 miles north of Tampa. But then I clicked the links above, and realized both MangoFarm and the storm chaser guy were on a different Pine Island exactly where Ian is going to hit. One of my co-workers is apparently at their condo in Cape Coral... hopefully they made it out, as it looks extremely dire for the whole area.
posted by netowl at 9:45 AM on September 28, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by netowl at 9:45 AM on September 28, 2022 [1 favorite]
The general vibe was that noone was expecting this to be this bad and so there weren't urgent evacuations.
It’s worse than that. Surviving Charley, to some of the locals, is some sort of badge of honor. I know of one person who left Pine Island a number of years ago who took time off work and flew down there over the weekend because HE THOUGHT CLEANING UP AFTER IAN WOULD BE FUN. All I could think of was that he going to be an additional cot taken and mouth to feed for the local emergency management system.
posted by Silvery Fish at 9:54 AM on September 28, 2022 [5 favorites]
It’s worse than that. Surviving Charley, to some of the locals, is some sort of badge of honor. I know of one person who left Pine Island a number of years ago who took time off work and flew down there over the weekend because HE THOUGHT CLEANING UP AFTER IAN WOULD BE FUN. All I could think of was that he going to be an additional cot taken and mouth to feed for the local emergency management system.
posted by Silvery Fish at 9:54 AM on September 28, 2022 [5 favorites]
Even though I'm in the midwest, it's hard to concentrate on anything besides Ian today. I've got family in Naples; my uncle is in a nursing home and I'm hoping he'll be safe there.
Also, my grandmother used to winter on Fort Myers Beach and I've spent a lot of time there. It seems like such a vulnerable spot -- I can't imagine what that storm surge is going to do to all the little houses, shops, restaurants, etc. It's just terrible.
posted by leftover_scrabble_rack at 9:57 AM on September 28, 2022 [5 favorites]
Also, my grandmother used to winter on Fort Myers Beach and I've spent a lot of time there. It seems like such a vulnerable spot -- I can't imagine what that storm surge is going to do to all the little houses, shops, restaurants, etc. It's just terrible.
posted by leftover_scrabble_rack at 9:57 AM on September 28, 2022 [5 favorites]
I moved to Ft Myers the year after Katrina hit so when we got our first hurricane, I was on watch. I remember sitting on the lanai and watching the water levels in the lakes fluctuate. At first it dropped suddenly and then after a little while, it flooded back and was quickly overflowing and flooding out into the patios and sidewalks of the first floor apartments. That place is forecast to be in one of the 9'+ inundation zones and I really hope no one is there to watch what is sure to be a truly awesome and terrible display. The way this area is going to flood isn't going to be entirely from the sea, it's going to come up from the porous limestone bedrock, it'll be flooding from the beaches but also flooding from everywhere at once. This is hard to watch because it seems inevitable that we aren't prepared for the destruction it's going to bring, scouring entire neighborhoods away.
posted by feloniousmonk at 10:20 AM on September 28, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by feloniousmonk at 10:20 AM on September 28, 2022 [4 favorites]
Live camera footage from Sanibal and Ft Myers. Surge in FM currently is about 8’. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=x2aticerEcs
posted by Silvery Fish at 10:35 AM on September 28, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Silvery Fish at 10:35 AM on September 28, 2022 [1 favorite]
JFC that footage from Fort Myers Beach is terrifying. I have an older relative in Fort Myers. She and her husband did not evacuate. They have been through a lot of storms and have the drill down—shutters, generator, bottled water—but I’m still very worried for them.
posted by computech_apolloniajames at 10:38 AM on September 28, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by computech_apolloniajames at 10:38 AM on September 28, 2022 [4 favorites]
That attitude is very common in that area and that footage of Ft Myers Beach just makes me even more worried. That's so much water...
posted by feloniousmonk at 10:41 AM on September 28, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by feloniousmonk at 10:41 AM on September 28, 2022 [4 favorites]
My 87-year old aunt is down there. I do not know if she chose to stay - she usually does. Last week, my (89yo) father lost his last living friend, and my aunt is his only remaining relative from that generation. I hope everyone comes out ok, but god help me, I especially hope she comes out alive. Losing her too this week, under these circumstances, would be unbearable for my dad.
posted by Silvery Fish at 10:53 AM on September 28, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by Silvery Fish at 10:53 AM on September 28, 2022 [3 favorites]
God that Fort Meyers footage is horrifying. In terms of human scale, and selfishness, I'm glad it tracked south. Ft Meyers metro is maybe 1/4 the size of the Tampa Bay metro area, so the scale of destruction will be less with this impact. My eyes are still on these cameras and reports from home are that it's not too bad yet in the Bay area. The worst may be yet to come as the storm moves north, but we may not see the huge storm surges I was afraid of. Of course, the only downside to all that is that once again Tampans will be able to say: see, no big deal, no need to evacuate, the news always exaggerates these things! (And they wonder why florida is the Qanon state).
posted by dis_integration at 11:05 AM on September 28, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by dis_integration at 11:05 AM on September 28, 2022 [1 favorite]
JFC the eye passed right across Ft Meyers heading NNE. The northerly winds on the east side of the storm will have shoved the storm surge right up the bay. That's .... bad. The water goes in the wide side and has no where to go as the bay narrows but up and out. That's going to be ... that is .. catastrophic. Holy shit.
posted by seanmpuckett at 11:05 AM on September 28, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by seanmpuckett at 11:05 AM on September 28, 2022 [2 favorites]
There are going to be a whole lot of people needing a whole lot of shit in the coming weeks. I know Floridians will step up (I grew up there, people come together after storms) but there will be so much more needed than what they have.
posted by seanmpuckett at 11:07 AM on September 28, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by seanmpuckett at 11:07 AM on September 28, 2022 [3 favorites]
Feeling completely sick seeing all of this, and sending good thoughts to all the Mefites in Florida right now. Stay safe, everyone.
I have a bunch of family in FL—mostly in Miami, thankfully. But my mom and step-dad are in Englewood. They did not evacuate, for reasons that are completely beyond my comprehension. They don't get around all that well; my mom's health is okay, but she's not exactly fit, and my step-dad has a slew of health issues and is on home dialysis. I am losing my mind with worry up here in New England, where I am completely powerless to help them, and this has barely even started.
posted by cellar door at 11:08 AM on September 28, 2022 [10 favorites]
I have a bunch of family in FL—mostly in Miami, thankfully. But my mom and step-dad are in Englewood. They did not evacuate, for reasons that are completely beyond my comprehension. They don't get around all that well; my mom's health is okay, but she's not exactly fit, and my step-dad has a slew of health issues and is on home dialysis. I am losing my mind with worry up here in New England, where I am completely powerless to help them, and this has barely even started.
posted by cellar door at 11:08 AM on September 28, 2022 [10 favorites]
Check out that one Ft. Myers cam on the Severe Storm youtube channel. The camera is gradually drowning, literally. They could make a blockbuster movie out of this footage.
posted by Melismata at 11:12 AM on September 28, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by Melismata at 11:12 AM on September 28, 2022 [2 favorites]
cellar door, I hope they are ok.
posted by Silvery Fish at 11:14 AM on September 28, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by Silvery Fish at 11:14 AM on September 28, 2022 [5 favorites]
Our main office is in Cape Coral. Don't know how many decided to ride it out and how many decided to GTFO. I just hope everyone comes out OK.
posted by azpenguin at 11:25 AM on September 28, 2022
posted by azpenguin at 11:25 AM on September 28, 2022
On The Weather Channel right now, the reporter in Englewood appears to be wearing a baseball helmet. I keep wondering why none of these folks are wearing eye protection.
posted by neuron at 11:25 AM on September 28, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by neuron at 11:25 AM on September 28, 2022 [5 favorites]
And the Englewood cam has this power line that just keeps ... getting lower and lower. Hollywood has nothing on Mother Nature.
posted by Melismata at 11:25 AM on September 28, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by Melismata at 11:25 AM on September 28, 2022 [2 favorites]
My parents, 30 miles inland, still have power. They're talking about how older homes are going to be devastated by this, and how they doubt that those people are be able to afford to rebuild afterward. Such a tragedy.
posted by PearlRose at 11:34 AM on September 28, 2022
posted by PearlRose at 11:34 AM on September 28, 2022
It's more than a little disturbing to look at the footage coming from SW Florida and realizing that it's only about a hundred miles away. We had an exciting few hours in SE Florida last night what with all the tornadoes (one in particular was rather close to me), but now that the tornado threat has passed and the rain is basically over there's not much to worry about over here. The canals are rather full, so it's good the 10 inch possibility didn't pan out and we only ended up getting 6-7 inches. The inland flooding farther north where they're looking at a foot or more of rain is going to be massive, and a lot of people are going to be caught out due to not having flood insurance.
What really gets me concerned, though, is wondering what is happening in the places where we aren't getting video. What we can see is pretty bad, but there are almost certainly places where the cell networks are already dead and word can't get out about the devastation that is ongoing.
posted by wierdo at 11:50 AM on September 28, 2022 [3 favorites]
What really gets me concerned, though, is wondering what is happening in the places where we aren't getting video. What we can see is pretty bad, but there are almost certainly places where the cell networks are already dead and word can't get out about the devastation that is ongoing.
posted by wierdo at 11:50 AM on September 28, 2022 [3 favorites]
Made landfall as a Cat 4 :( :( :( Good luck to everyone involved, and their loved ones.
posted by Jacen at 12:34 PM on September 28, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Jacen at 12:34 PM on September 28, 2022 [1 favorite]
Holy hell, one local PD's mobile command post just because unexepctedly literal: https://twitter.com/MattParkerNews/status/1575204202061901825
posted by wenestvedt at 12:35 PM on September 28, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by wenestvedt at 12:35 PM on September 28, 2022 [3 favorites]
Friend in Cape Coral got out beforehand and is safe... but their house is underwater.
posted by azpenguin at 12:38 PM on September 28, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by azpenguin at 12:38 PM on September 28, 2022 [5 favorites]
Even though I'm not in FL, I'm still keeping an eye on all this because my cousin and his wife live in St. Petersburg. She boarded up the house yesterday and left to go inland with their dog. My cousin is a news reporter so he's still working, but his news crew has relocated about 100 miles north. So far, they seem to be doing okay, but it will be interesting (sad?) to see what their neighborhood looks like after all this.
posted by paisley sheep at 1:18 PM on September 28, 2022
posted by paisley sheep at 1:18 PM on September 28, 2022
My friend in Largo says it's blustery and rainy, but otherwise lacking in drama. On the other hand, that slowly-drowning camera in Ft Myers gives me the absolute shivers. What a tragic mess.
posted by Greg_Ace at 1:30 PM on September 28, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by Greg_Ace at 1:30 PM on September 28, 2022 [3 favorites]
As of a few minutes ago: 1 million without power in Florida. I heard from family north of Venice who lost power a few hours ago. Repair crews generally don't go out until winds are below 35mph, so I imagine these numbers are going to go up before they go down.
posted by gwint at 1:40 PM on September 28, 2022
posted by gwint at 1:40 PM on September 28, 2022
Are people watching the whiskey creek, and the 10 Mile canal gauges? They were shooting up above 7 ft. It could be a funnel surge situation into Fort myers, which would not be good
posted by eustatic at 3:13 PM on September 28, 2022
posted by eustatic at 3:13 PM on September 28, 2022
And, in Puerto Rico, my power has gone off again.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 3:58 PM on September 28, 2022 [8 favorites]
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 3:58 PM on September 28, 2022 [8 favorites]
Company Asked Employees to Bring Family, Pets to Office to Work Through Hurricane Ian
posted by jenfullmoon at 4:27 PM on September 28, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by jenfullmoon at 4:27 PM on September 28, 2022 [2 favorites]
I’m shocked, SHOCKED, to learn the CEO who told employees to work through the hurricane is a devout scientologist!
posted by Orange Dinosaur Slide at 5:19 PM on September 28, 2022 [9 favorites]
posted by Orange Dinosaur Slide at 5:19 PM on September 28, 2022 [9 favorites]
Here is that stream data if anyone else is curious. Whiskey Creek and Tenmile Canal. I linked to stream flow rather than gage height because it's hard to interpret the height in the context of a canal. It's relatively near its banks in the photos I saw, so that has to be a measure of a general flood, I think. In any case, the flow rate is the flow rate and it's like watching the Merced in peak runoff after a record setting winter. Hard to think about what is going on there right now.
posted by feloniousmonk at 5:31 PM on September 28, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by feloniousmonk at 5:31 PM on September 28, 2022 [3 favorites]
Hah, yeah, once you saw the word "Clearwater," guess where THAT story is going. Are they all $cientologists? Do the employees get paid any money at all?
Also, good lord, it's POSTCARDS. That isn't dire enough that you need to work in that level of emergency!
Freedom Magazine said that Gendusa is a high school dropout, and that all of her business acumen is self-taught.
Her source for gaining her business acumen is a 12-volume series containing a management methodology authored by Scientology Founder L. Ron Hubbard.
*facepalm*
posted by jenfullmoon at 6:55 PM on September 28, 2022 [8 favorites]
Also, good lord, it's POSTCARDS. That isn't dire enough that you need to work in that level of emergency!
Freedom Magazine said that Gendusa is a high school dropout, and that all of her business acumen is self-taught.
Her source for gaining her business acumen is a 12-volume series containing a management methodology authored by Scientology Founder L. Ron Hubbard.
*facepalm*
posted by jenfullmoon at 6:55 PM on September 28, 2022 [8 favorites]
Postcard marketing which is spam.
posted by Jacen at 7:00 PM on September 28, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by Jacen at 7:00 PM on September 28, 2022 [2 favorites]
#HurricaneIan made for a rough ride during a @NOAA WP-3D #Kermit #HurricaneHunter flight into the storm this morning.
posted by glaucon at 7:07 PM on September 28, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by glaucon at 7:07 PM on September 28, 2022 [4 favorites]
Looks like we escaped the hurricane with no damage. Power even stayed on! We’ll have to do a full inspection after the storm fully passes but for now it’s time for well earned sleep after being up all night through the storm.
posted by Servo5678 at 5:24 AM on September 29, 2022 [26 favorites]
posted by Servo5678 at 5:24 AM on September 29, 2022 [26 favorites]
Tampa here: never lost power. Trees down on our block, a handful of small ones and two big oaks, but no major damage. We were significantly less prepared that I like to be, but I've had a few family crises in the past 2 years (haven't we all) and this one snuck up on me. We're fortunate but our hearts break for Ft. Myers, Cape Coral, Sanibel, Port Charlotte, Cuba and everywhere else that caught the brunt.
posted by penduluum at 7:12 AM on September 29, 2022 [7 favorites]
posted by penduluum at 7:12 AM on September 29, 2022 [7 favorites]
Reports from Pine Island are trickling in and none of them are good.
{Pine Island] is connected to the mainland of Cape Coral by a thin two lane causeway which is looking more and more likely to be flooded or worse in the next 72 hours. If this happens the only way to get on or off is by boat or helicopter.
Quoting myself from my post two days ago and unfortunately I was right. The causeway connecting Pine Island to Cape Coral was torn apart and it's impossible to pass through now.
Further north in Sanibel, the bridge connecting the island to the mainland has collapsed. So the folks who stayed there are now trapped as well.
Back to Pine Island, that (now damaged) bridge passes through the small town of Matlacha, a strip of art galleries, giftshops, restaurants, it's a big tourist destination. The first photo here is typically what looks like and then further down what it looks like now. I am friends with the owners of the Vietnamese restaurant in the last photo and the building is still standing but essentially destroyed.
It's quite possible this entire town is wiped out, or at the very least will take years to rebuild. (We can probably table the conversation of whether or not this would be a good idea. I have my own opinions but now is not the time to express them).
As far as Pine Island proper. It's only accessible by boat now and information is hard to come by, but there are ongoing rescue efforts for the people who stayed for whatever reason.
As far as MangoFarm Island itself is concerned, I'm starting from the assumption that everything is completely destroyed. The house, the trees...everything. It's unlikely I'll learn what the situation is for days or possibly weeks, they won't be letting people onto the island for a while.
posted by jeremias at 7:20 AM on September 29, 2022 [34 favorites]
{Pine Island] is connected to the mainland of Cape Coral by a thin two lane causeway which is looking more and more likely to be flooded or worse in the next 72 hours. If this happens the only way to get on or off is by boat or helicopter.
Quoting myself from my post two days ago and unfortunately I was right. The causeway connecting Pine Island to Cape Coral was torn apart and it's impossible to pass through now.
Further north in Sanibel, the bridge connecting the island to the mainland has collapsed. So the folks who stayed there are now trapped as well.
Back to Pine Island, that (now damaged) bridge passes through the small town of Matlacha, a strip of art galleries, giftshops, restaurants, it's a big tourist destination. The first photo here is typically what looks like and then further down what it looks like now. I am friends with the owners of the Vietnamese restaurant in the last photo and the building is still standing but essentially destroyed.
It's quite possible this entire town is wiped out, or at the very least will take years to rebuild. (We can probably table the conversation of whether or not this would be a good idea. I have my own opinions but now is not the time to express them).
As far as Pine Island proper. It's only accessible by boat now and information is hard to come by, but there are ongoing rescue efforts for the people who stayed for whatever reason.
As far as MangoFarm Island itself is concerned, I'm starting from the assumption that everything is completely destroyed. The house, the trees...everything. It's unlikely I'll learn what the situation is for days or possibly weeks, they won't be letting people onto the island for a while.
posted by jeremias at 7:20 AM on September 29, 2022 [34 favorites]
Thanks for your interpretation of those gauges. Apparently, Lee County did a damage assessment after Irma that was focused on the ten mile canal, rather than, say, Iona.
My people left Iona to shelter near the Ft Myers Airport, "uphill"
But I fear it's quite likely that Iona had swift water several feet high in the street, which would explain the death estimates....
Also, checking door to door in the SWFL has got to be hell for the EMS, every house is in a cul de sac, barely any of their streets connect...
posted by eustatic at 7:52 AM on September 29, 2022 [3 favorites]
My people left Iona to shelter near the Ft Myers Airport, "uphill"
But I fear it's quite likely that Iona had swift water several feet high in the street, which would explain the death estimates....
Also, checking door to door in the SWFL has got to be hell for the EMS, every house is in a cul de sac, barely any of their streets connect...
posted by eustatic at 7:52 AM on September 29, 2022 [3 favorites]
Thanks for the update, jeremais.
My cousin has a shop on Matlacha — I hope for the best, but don’t expect great news.
We did check in with them right before the back wall came thru — the cousin was fine, but our aged aunt stayed with a friend, and last report was that they had 3’ of water in the single-story house and 4’ outside. I am sure they have their hands full right now and am assuming they would have contacted us if there were serious bodily injuries.
Agreeing that the discussion of whether anything SHOULD be re-built should wait. But one aspect of climate crisis that has not been much discussed is ramping up the production of housing materials to address what appears to be a future of catastrophic weather events, of all types, throughout the country and world. Repairing existing properties takes timber, drywall, plumbing, etc. — as does outfitting existing structures to withstand greater natural forces, new construction to meet the housing crisis, or building more in currently low-populated areas to address the coming shift of “climate refugees”.
A huge hit in one area has massive impact in the neighboring communities and states, as resources are funneled (rightly) to address critical infrastructure and housing needs…. while simultaneously making those same materials unavailable or outrageously priced in other areas, which prevents preventative maintenance or climate upgrades on so many other structures.
We are not going to prevent the “huge hits” at this point. To me, this is another reason to bring A LOT of manufacturing back to the States, and rethink the entire on-demand inventory models.
posted by Silvery Fish at 7:54 AM on September 29, 2022 [20 favorites]
My cousin has a shop on Matlacha — I hope for the best, but don’t expect great news.
We did check in with them right before the back wall came thru — the cousin was fine, but our aged aunt stayed with a friend, and last report was that they had 3’ of water in the single-story house and 4’ outside. I am sure they have their hands full right now and am assuming they would have contacted us if there were serious bodily injuries.
Agreeing that the discussion of whether anything SHOULD be re-built should wait. But one aspect of climate crisis that has not been much discussed is ramping up the production of housing materials to address what appears to be a future of catastrophic weather events, of all types, throughout the country and world. Repairing existing properties takes timber, drywall, plumbing, etc. — as does outfitting existing structures to withstand greater natural forces, new construction to meet the housing crisis, or building more in currently low-populated areas to address the coming shift of “climate refugees”.
A huge hit in one area has massive impact in the neighboring communities and states, as resources are funneled (rightly) to address critical infrastructure and housing needs…. while simultaneously making those same materials unavailable or outrageously priced in other areas, which prevents preventative maintenance or climate upgrades on so many other structures.
We are not going to prevent the “huge hits” at this point. To me, this is another reason to bring A LOT of manufacturing back to the States, and rethink the entire on-demand inventory models.
posted by Silvery Fish at 7:54 AM on September 29, 2022 [20 favorites]
The NOAA survey planes (not Kermit and Miss Piggy, the big sexy hurricane planes, but the photo fleet) evac'd to new orleans and Memphis, perhaps they can survey today or tomorrow
N68RF, on flight trackers, N46RF, too, I think
posted by eustatic at 7:55 AM on September 29, 2022 [1 favorite]
N68RF, on flight trackers, N46RF, too, I think
posted by eustatic at 7:55 AM on September 29, 2022 [1 favorite]
I keep thinking about that jackass "storm chaser" with the sweatband. At one point he was filming himself in the storm, saying "this is a mandatory evacuation area" with this "this sign can't stop me because I can't read" attitude. It's not like he was providing useful information -- it was dramatic footage but it was just one guy on the ground in one location. If the state had to spend a single dollar to rescue him, I hope he has to pay it back tenfold.
posted by The corpse in the library at 8:00 AM on September 29, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by The corpse in the library at 8:00 AM on September 29, 2022 [2 favorites]
My family in Englewood is reporting that they have power again already (although that may of course be limited to their immediate neighborhood). Some wind damage to the roof, but no major structural problems thankfully. Houses are surrounded by water, but not flooded (or at least, theirs isn't). The water has receded a little, but the tide is coming in (looks like the next high tide is at 5:30 pm), so they're not out of the woods yet.
Still, at least the storm surge in Englewood wasn't like what we witnessed in Fort Myers (this footage made me physically ill yesterday). It could have been so much worse—and I'm sure is, in other areas. Continuing to send good thoughts to those with loved ones/selves in the region.
posted by cellar door at 8:10 AM on September 29, 2022 [7 favorites]
Still, at least the storm surge in Englewood wasn't like what we witnessed in Fort Myers (this footage made me physically ill yesterday). It could have been so much worse—and I'm sure is, in other areas. Continuing to send good thoughts to those with loved ones/selves in the region.
posted by cellar door at 8:10 AM on September 29, 2022 [7 favorites]
Yeah, spoke too soon on that one. We now live on riverfront property with a flooded street and water flew in all night through a failed window seal which may have fried my digital piano when it zapped the breaker in that room. I’ve had that piano since 1994. It was a Bar Mitzvah gift. Hopefully the surge protector strip did its job. I’ll find out when we get the room fixed.
posted by Servo5678 at 8:11 AM on September 29, 2022 [9 favorites]
posted by Servo5678 at 8:11 AM on September 29, 2022 [9 favorites]
We had just a little rain and wind but the severe effects of Ian missed us here in western Oregon.
Seriously, though, our area had massive wildfires in 2020 in which thousands of structures were destroyed. Two years later, rebuilding continues to be a big struggle due to chemical hazards (all that melted plastic in the soil and water), manpower shortage, material shortage, and insurance foot-dragging.
posted by neuron at 8:16 AM on September 29, 2022 [2 favorites]
Seriously, though, our area had massive wildfires in 2020 in which thousands of structures were destroyed. Two years later, rebuilding continues to be a big struggle due to chemical hazards (all that melted plastic in the soil and water), manpower shortage, material shortage, and insurance foot-dragging.
posted by neuron at 8:16 AM on September 29, 2022 [2 favorites]
Update from some Iona people: after walking a few miles back down the hill, their home off MacGregor Blvd was mostly dry; mud in garage. so flood waters were small there.
Here's the Lee County flood mitigation plan after Irma
Here's the situational awareness GIS from Civilian Air Patrol;
here is a guide on how to document high water marks for damage assessments, which helps. if only we could normalize this kind of picture on social media.
https://www.gocivilairpatrol.com/media/cms/CAP_Guide_to_Collection_of_HWM_Surv_53C96A278913F.pdf
CAP has been active in PR after Fiona; They really shined after Ida in 2021.
posted by eustatic at 9:03 AM on September 29, 2022 [3 favorites]
Here's the Lee County flood mitigation plan after Irma
Here's the situational awareness GIS from Civilian Air Patrol;
here is a guide on how to document high water marks for damage assessments, which helps. if only we could normalize this kind of picture on social media.
https://www.gocivilairpatrol.com/media/cms/CAP_Guide_to_Collection_of_HWM_Surv_53C96A278913F.pdf
CAP has been active in PR after Fiona; They really shined after Ida in 2021.
posted by eustatic at 9:03 AM on September 29, 2022 [3 favorites]
A huge hit in one area has massive impact in the neighboring communities and states, as resources are funneled (rightly) to address critical infrastructure and housing needs…. while simultaneously making those same materials unavailable or outrageously priced in other areas, which prevents preventative maintenance or climate upgrades on so many other structures.
Surprisingly I ran into this just today: my company rented some port-a-potties from a company a couple years back, and we needed more for an event coming up in a week. But when I called our previous vendor, pretty much all I got was a recording saying that all of their offices nationwide were sending EVERYTHING to Florida to help people affected by Hurricane Ian, and then the line disconnected. And we're up in New York.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 9:39 AM on September 29, 2022 [9 favorites]
Surprisingly I ran into this just today: my company rented some port-a-potties from a company a couple years back, and we needed more for an event coming up in a week. But when I called our previous vendor, pretty much all I got was a recording saying that all of their offices nationwide were sending EVERYTHING to Florida to help people affected by Hurricane Ian, and then the line disconnected. And we're up in New York.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 9:39 AM on September 29, 2022 [9 favorites]
It is comforting / harrowing to watch the planes and copters circle over SWFL
you can watch the USCG doing medevac, looks like
private real estate survey planes are up, NOAA survey still in new orleans.
Three copters incl USCG looking like they are circling the outer islands of lee county, and one news chopper, so i think Fort Myers has fuel
NOAA
https://storms.ngs.noaa.gov/
posted by eustatic at 10:03 AM on September 29, 2022 [2 favorites]
you can watch the USCG doing medevac, looks like
private real estate survey planes are up, NOAA survey still in new orleans.
Three copters incl USCG looking like they are circling the outer islands of lee county, and one news chopper, so i think Fort Myers has fuel
NOAA
https://storms.ngs.noaa.gov/
posted by eustatic at 10:03 AM on September 29, 2022 [2 favorites]
President and FEMA director are speaking now. POTUS says massive loss of life expected. I really hope no one was on Ft Myers beach when it got hit, nothing there looks survivable. We drove through there earlier this year and I remember thinking how narrow the island was (especially compared to Sanibel). The footage of that and the causeway underwater is heartbreaking. Stay strong SW Florida.
posted by andruwjones26 at 10:15 AM on September 29, 2022
posted by andruwjones26 at 10:15 AM on September 29, 2022
About half or so of the main office employees have been able to check in to say they’re OK. Cell service is almost non-existent in Cape Coral from what I’ve heard, word is they’re going to bring in portable cell towers. There were some absolutely terrified texts coming in yesterday. Hopefully everyone checks in OK.
posted by azpenguin at 10:45 AM on September 29, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by azpenguin at 10:45 AM on September 29, 2022 [2 favorites]
Ian Forecast to Become Hurricane Again Before South Carolina Landfall.
Also, although hopefully it won't become as dramatic as the storm surge footage we've seen for Florida, I've been watching this: Edisto Island webcam.
posted by mittens at 11:29 AM on September 29, 2022 [1 favorite]
Also, although hopefully it won't become as dramatic as the storm surge footage we've seen for Florida, I've been watching this: Edisto Island webcam.
posted by mittens at 11:29 AM on September 29, 2022 [1 favorite]
Additional update from St. Augustine: the bayfront got wrecked.
We're still very much in the storm. Several friends have lost power but we're going strong on the north side of town. The ocean made it in to several waterfront neighborhoods during the last high tide though, and the storm is gonna be directly east of us, possibly back up to hurricane strength, not long before the next high tide later tonight.
Even as a tropical storm this motherfucker is strong. Truly cannot imagine how SW Florida is doing right now.
posted by saladin at 11:30 AM on September 29, 2022 [2 favorites]
We're still very much in the storm. Several friends have lost power but we're going strong on the north side of town. The ocean made it in to several waterfront neighborhoods during the last high tide though, and the storm is gonna be directly east of us, possibly back up to hurricane strength, not long before the next high tide later tonight.
Even as a tropical storm this motherfucker is strong. Truly cannot imagine how SW Florida is doing right now.
posted by saladin at 11:30 AM on September 29, 2022 [2 favorites]
Surprisingly I ran into this just today: my company rented some port-a-potties from a company a couple years back, and we needed more for an event coming up in a week. But when I called our previous vendor, pretty much all I got was a recording saying that all of their offices nationwide were sending EVERYTHING to Florida to help people affected by Hurricane Ian, and then the line disconnected. And we're up in New York.
And the problem is a persistent one: after the ice storms/power grid failures in TX, I still couldn’t get 1” PVC pipe in NM **six months** later. Every hardware store said that it was all being sent to TX still because there just wasn’t enough in the entire region to meet the size of the need.
Beyond incentives to bring manufacturing back, I begin to wonder if a national stockpile of essential construction goods should be considered, like we do oil and helium. Or — aggressively fund the creation of alternative, fast producing structural alternatives, such as bamboo, biomass-based drywall alternatives, and plumbing supplies that can be quickly made out of recycled plastics. Housing codes / acceptable materials lists would have to be updated at the same time — but boy, what we have now is not going to sustain our needs to repair and improve.
posted by Silvery Fish at 11:30 AM on September 29, 2022 [10 favorites]
And the problem is a persistent one: after the ice storms/power grid failures in TX, I still couldn’t get 1” PVC pipe in NM **six months** later. Every hardware store said that it was all being sent to TX still because there just wasn’t enough in the entire region to meet the size of the need.
Beyond incentives to bring manufacturing back, I begin to wonder if a national stockpile of essential construction goods should be considered, like we do oil and helium. Or — aggressively fund the creation of alternative, fast producing structural alternatives, such as bamboo, biomass-based drywall alternatives, and plumbing supplies that can be quickly made out of recycled plastics. Housing codes / acceptable materials lists would have to be updated at the same time — but boy, what we have now is not going to sustain our needs to repair and improve.
posted by Silvery Fish at 11:30 AM on September 29, 2022 [10 favorites]
Ian has been quite the disaster already, and it's not even done yet. In addition to the total devastation of a substantial part of the SW Florida coast reminiscent of Katrina (probably with people dying in their attic attempting to escape the rising water, even), Central Florida is experiencing Harvey levels of flooding from excessive rainfall, and even parts of the NE coast are experiencing enough storm surge to flood buildings along the coast.
And now Ian is once again a hurricane, likely to bring several feet of surge to a wide swath of the South Carolina coast and possibly into Georgia and North Carolina. What a fucking disaster.
posted by wierdo at 2:37 PM on September 29, 2022 [2 favorites]
And now Ian is once again a hurricane, likely to bring several feet of surge to a wide swath of the South Carolina coast and possibly into Georgia and North Carolina. What a fucking disaster.
posted by wierdo at 2:37 PM on September 29, 2022 [2 favorites]
I begin to wonder if a national stockpile
Just FYI, unrelated to the hurricane, Congress decided to sell off the helium reserve in 1996, creating a whole variety of exciting shortages and making random assholes rich in the process. In my prior life I was occasionally involved with heliarc welding, and pretty much everyone in the field was infuriated by the unnecessary clusterfuck.
...so, while national stockpiles are a good idea, I would counsel you to imagine a system that cannot be reversed by mendacious politicians. Same with a range of disaster-related preparations (insurance of last resort being a salient example; once state programs get large enough, watch for them to be privatized and ruined).
posted by aramaic at 6:25 PM on September 29, 2022 [8 favorites]
Just FYI, unrelated to the hurricane, Congress decided to sell off the helium reserve in 1996, creating a whole variety of exciting shortages and making random assholes rich in the process. In my prior life I was occasionally involved with heliarc welding, and pretty much everyone in the field was infuriated by the unnecessary clusterfuck.
...so, while national stockpiles are a good idea, I would counsel you to imagine a system that cannot be reversed by mendacious politicians. Same with a range of disaster-related preparations (insurance of last resort being a salient example; once state programs get large enough, watch for them to be privatized and ruined).
posted by aramaic at 6:25 PM on September 29, 2022 [8 favorites]
Final St. Augustine report: wind shifted violently to the south as the storm passed parallel to our east, but it's beginning to die down significantly. We've got one more high tide to go before we're out of the surge/flood warning zone, but it's clear the storm is all but gone. Birds are out flying around again, as sure a sign as any that the worst is past. And now, eerily, the rain has stopped and the temperature just dropped to the low 60s. What a weird 72 hours.
posted by saladin at 6:40 PM on September 29, 2022 [17 favorites]
posted by saladin at 6:40 PM on September 29, 2022 [17 favorites]
What a weird 72 hours
But I'm glad you're here to see it, saladin.
posted by wenestvedt at 6:59 PM on September 29, 2022 [3 favorites]
But I'm glad you're here to see it, saladin.
posted by wenestvedt at 6:59 PM on September 29, 2022 [3 favorites]
Heads up that there's a check-in thread in Metatalk.
posted by LobsterMitten at 8:40 PM on September 29, 2022
posted by LobsterMitten at 8:40 PM on September 29, 2022
Came in to talk about Mango Farm Island, skimmed thread, and aw hell that is a lot of destruction and danger. Stay safe if you are in the zone.
posted by vrakatar at 10:02 PM on September 29, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by vrakatar at 10:02 PM on September 29, 2022 [4 favorites]
Appreciating the display options on the NOAA forecast map.
posted by brainwane at 11:49 AM on September 30, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by brainwane at 11:49 AM on September 30, 2022 [2 favorites]
Even though it was only a Cat 1 when it hit SC, it looks like there's a lot of flooding and damage in the Georgetown to Myrtle Beach area. I spent a lot of time there as a kid and still have family there. My cousin who owned a restaurant on the water in Georgetown just passed away a few months ago. The River Room weathered many storms over the decades he owned it, and I'm sure it made it through this one too, but it's always sad to see places we love all smashed up.
posted by hydropsyche at 3:27 PM on September 30, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by hydropsyche at 3:27 PM on September 30, 2022 [1 favorite]
I've got a Covid headache, so I'm not feeling very charitable, but Gov. DeSantis (who 9 years ago as a congressman voted against federal flood assistance for Hurricane Sandy, and seems to be against most federal programs in general...) asking for help from the government without seeming to have the slightest bit of cognitive dissonance is one of the many things hurting my brain right now. "We all need to work together..." It would be nice if this caused him to reevaluate the role of a national government, but I'm not hopeful.
Sorry, but I really am having a hard time with authoritarians today. I really hope the best for those in trouble from the weather.
(disclaimer- well, except for the asshole storm chaser on Pine Island)
posted by MtDewd at 4:50 PM on September 30, 2022 [5 favorites]
Sorry, but I really am having a hard time with authoritarians today. I really hope the best for those in trouble from the weather.
(disclaimer- well, except for the asshole storm chaser on Pine Island)
posted by MtDewd at 4:50 PM on September 30, 2022 [5 favorites]
Mango Farm Island update! (Hereby shortened to MFI).
So I will not get an eyewitness on-the-ground report until later today or tomorrow, but NOAA released the satellite imagery of Pine Island and surrounding areas last night.
Given the fact that the eye of the hurricane went over the island (with what seems to be a record high gust of 172.4 mph!) it seems like we dodged a major bullet. Consider that 20 miles away in Fort Meyers, a neighborhood (granted, it's highly populated) looks like this. ☹️
Here's a closeup of MFI with my property lines in red. The house could still have significant structural damage from wind or projectiles, or water damage, but the roof is still there and there doesn't seem to be any trees on top of it.
There also seems to be a remarkable lack of flooding that I can't quite explain given the power of Ike. You can see two horizontal dark lines inside the border of the mango section I drew, those are drainage ditches and they also extend below the border into another section of the farm.
I've seen more water in those ditches after a heavy rain, so it's shocking that there's so little. My main worry was that the storm surge would bring salt water into the land which would eventually kill all the fruit trees. Again, this possibly happened, but it seems unlikely.
So I don't feel as if I'm in the clear yet, but even if the house has damage, I had an expert look at my mom's insurance policy (because I was too nervous to) and he says there is good coverage.
The earlier chat about turning this into some sort of HipCamp or otherwise mefi-friendly camping outpost has planted some seeds in my mind. A wise friend with has way more real estate experience than I do says I will need to factor in 2-4 years of waiting time before trying to sell this again.
So what I'm saying is the dream is still alive! Stay tuned.
Granted, this is not over and yes, there could be some nasty surprises awaiting me, but once again, this place has helped me navigate a bleak, anxiety-ridden period in my life. You all are awesome!
posted by jeremias at 12:32 PM on October 1, 2022 [22 favorites]
So I will not get an eyewitness on-the-ground report until later today or tomorrow, but NOAA released the satellite imagery of Pine Island and surrounding areas last night.
Given the fact that the eye of the hurricane went over the island (with what seems to be a record high gust of 172.4 mph!) it seems like we dodged a major bullet. Consider that 20 miles away in Fort Meyers, a neighborhood (granted, it's highly populated) looks like this. ☹️
Here's a closeup of MFI with my property lines in red. The house could still have significant structural damage from wind or projectiles, or water damage, but the roof is still there and there doesn't seem to be any trees on top of it.
There also seems to be a remarkable lack of flooding that I can't quite explain given the power of Ike. You can see two horizontal dark lines inside the border of the mango section I drew, those are drainage ditches and they also extend below the border into another section of the farm.
I've seen more water in those ditches after a heavy rain, so it's shocking that there's so little. My main worry was that the storm surge would bring salt water into the land which would eventually kill all the fruit trees. Again, this possibly happened, but it seems unlikely.
So I don't feel as if I'm in the clear yet, but even if the house has damage, I had an expert look at my mom's insurance policy (because I was too nervous to) and he says there is good coverage.
The earlier chat about turning this into some sort of HipCamp or otherwise mefi-friendly camping outpost has planted some seeds in my mind. A wise friend with has way more real estate experience than I do says I will need to factor in 2-4 years of waiting time before trying to sell this again.
So what I'm saying is the dream is still alive! Stay tuned.
Granted, this is not over and yes, there could be some nasty surprises awaiting me, but once again, this place has helped me navigate a bleak, anxiety-ridden period in my life. You all are awesome!
posted by jeremias at 12:32 PM on October 1, 2022 [22 favorites]
I'm glad, jeremias. I've been watching the news with special attention to Pine Island. I'm a plant pathologist, so in coming days, if you have questions about your mangos, don't hesitate. Ian is about to hit me, but it will just be rain.
posted by acrasis at 1:36 PM on October 1, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by acrasis at 1:36 PM on October 1, 2022 [4 favorites]
NOAA imagery Detailed enough to see if a house is or is not standing.
posted by soylent00FF00 at 7:15 PM on October 1, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by soylent00FF00 at 7:15 PM on October 1, 2022 [4 favorites]
One final thought about the Pine Island Storm Chaser...
I can't not picture him as the Cobra Kai sensei from The Karate Kid.
posted by MtDewd at 2:12 PM on October 2, 2022
I can't not picture him as the Cobra Kai sensei from The Karate Kid.
posted by MtDewd at 2:12 PM on October 2, 2022
Just FYI, NOAA imagery is aircraft, not satellite.
CAP were also flying lawnmower and targeted missions while the NOAA birds were flying the coastal missions.. So there should be more imagery around Orlando released by FEMA soon
posted by eustatic at 10:54 PM on October 2, 2022
CAP were also flying lawnmower and targeted missions while the NOAA birds were flying the coastal missions.. So there should be more imagery around Orlando released by FEMA soon
posted by eustatic at 10:54 PM on October 2, 2022
Looks like Ian destroyed what was left of the dome house on Cape Romano.
posted by drstrangelove at 6:45 AM on October 11, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by drstrangelove at 6:45 AM on October 11, 2022 [1 favorite]
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This thread has been archived and is closed to new comments
It doesn't matter much to the people in the path of a terrible storm on an unusual path that it's "only" the 8th named storm of the year, though.
Hoping, as always, for the least-bad possible outcome.
posted by Well I never at 6:15 AM on September 27, 2022 [2 favorites]