The return to the office could be the real reason for the slump in production
February 19, 2023 11:49 PM Subscribe
U.S. productivity jumped in the second quarter of 2020 as offices closed, and stayed at a heightened level through 2021. Then, when companies started mandating a return to the office in early 2022, productivity dropped sharply in Q1 and Q2 of that year. Productivity recovered slightly in Q3 and Q4 as the productivity loss associated with the return to office mandate was absorbed by companies–but it never got back to the period when remote-capable employees worked from home.
QFT: The best approach for the future of work is a flexible team-led approach, with team leads making the call on work arrangements that serve the needs of their team. Team leads know best what their teams need, including how to maximize productivity, engagement, and collaboration.
posted by chavenet at 12:01 AM on February 20, 2023 [11 favorites]
posted by chavenet at 12:01 AM on February 20, 2023 [11 favorites]
Yeah, there’s a pretty well-known phenomenon in economics where productivity goes up entering a recession and goes down as you exit one.
As a source fortune.com Is closer to LiveJournal than the Wall Street Journal, and Gleb Tsipursky looks to be a historian with a consultancy spending his downtime drumming up new business.
posted by pwnguin at 1:06 AM on February 20, 2023 [10 favorites]
As a source fortune.com Is closer to LiveJournal than the Wall Street Journal, and Gleb Tsipursky looks to be a historian with a consultancy spending his downtime drumming up new business.
posted by pwnguin at 1:06 AM on February 20, 2023 [10 favorites]
more like fortune-teller.com amiright?
posted by Literaryhero at 1:20 AM on February 20, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by Literaryhero at 1:20 AM on February 20, 2023 [1 favorite]
There are enough of other nice supporting citations in the article, even other effects confound his main arguments.
Also, what is the relevant timing of this recession? We partially dodged a conventional recession during the pandemic, due to government spending, but then a somewhat more conventional recession started in Q1 and Q2 of 2022, and really took off with the rate hikes, no?
It's likely all these time frames represent recessions in some sense, so a productivity uptick in 2022 could be from a recession impacting consumer facing jobs, while a productivity uptick in Q3 and Q4 of 2022 could stem largely from tech & related layoff.
There are more important measures that economists' dubious productivity notions though, like how well people actually spend their time. In principle, you could read etc while commuting via public transit, and bikes are at least exercise. All commuting by car is just wasted time: It's believed radio is dumb enough to be safe for driving, but anything interesting like a conversation increases risks.
posted by jeffburdges at 3:08 AM on February 20, 2023 [4 favorites]
Also, what is the relevant timing of this recession? We partially dodged a conventional recession during the pandemic, due to government spending, but then a somewhat more conventional recession started in Q1 and Q2 of 2022, and really took off with the rate hikes, no?
It's likely all these time frames represent recessions in some sense, so a productivity uptick in 2022 could be from a recession impacting consumer facing jobs, while a productivity uptick in Q3 and Q4 of 2022 could stem largely from tech & related layoff.
There are more important measures that economists' dubious productivity notions though, like how well people actually spend their time. In principle, you could read etc while commuting via public transit, and bikes are at least exercise. All commuting by car is just wasted time: It's believed radio is dumb enough to be safe for driving, but anything interesting like a conversation increases risks.
posted by jeffburdges at 3:08 AM on February 20, 2023 [4 favorites]
All commuting by car is just wasted time: It's believed radio is dumb enough to be safe for driving, but anything interesting like a conversation increases risks.
I have a mercifully short commute (20-30 minutes) that I must make by car (no good public transport nor bike friendly facilities) but I "waste" my time daily with an audiobook.
posted by chavenet at 4:02 AM on February 20, 2023 [3 favorites]
I have a mercifully short commute (20-30 minutes) that I must make by car (no good public transport nor bike friendly facilities) but I "waste" my time daily with an audiobook.
posted by chavenet at 4:02 AM on February 20, 2023 [3 favorites]
like how well people actually spend their time. In principle, you could read etc while commuting via public transit, and bikes are at least exercise. All commuting by car is just wasted time
If I commute in my self-driving Tesla while doing yoga and memorizing the Iliad, is that useful enough?
posted by Galvanic at 4:20 AM on February 20, 2023 [10 favorites]
If I commute in my self-driving Tesla while doing yoga and memorizing the Iliad, is that useful enough?
posted by Galvanic at 4:20 AM on February 20, 2023 [10 favorites]
In Greek or translated to the vulgate?
posted by wenestvedt at 4:30 AM on February 20, 2023 [31 favorites]
posted by wenestvedt at 4:30 AM on February 20, 2023 [31 favorites]
If I commute in my self-driving Tesla while doing yoga and memorizing the Iliad, is that useful enough?
It makes you an enemy of all humanity, but not… useless.
posted by GenjiandProust at 4:45 AM on February 20, 2023 [9 favorites]
It makes you an enemy of all humanity, but not… useless.
posted by GenjiandProust at 4:45 AM on February 20, 2023 [9 favorites]
Greek
ASL.
but not… useless.
Whew. Can’t have a moment of my day when I’m not being useful.
posted by Galvanic at 4:51 AM on February 20, 2023 [13 favorites]
ASL.
but not… useless.
Whew. Can’t have a moment of my day when I’m not being useful.
posted by Galvanic at 4:51 AM on February 20, 2023 [13 favorites]
Speaking as someone who has worked from home for well over a decade, where are we putting “commenting on MetaFilter instead of doing this work” on the useless spectrum? Because my workday is at least as much procrastination at home as it is in the office. At home, though, I just do it in gym clothes
posted by thivaia at 5:29 AM on February 20, 2023 [16 favorites]
posted by thivaia at 5:29 AM on February 20, 2023 [16 favorites]
"Productivity" isn't about how full your day is, it's about how much you get done. If you complete 3 units of work from home in 6 hours and spend 2 hours on Metafilter, versus 2 units of work at the office in 8 hours, you were more productive at home.
For me, anyway, it's exactly that. The commute saps me, the office environment stresses me, and the constant surveillance to ensure that I'm "not wasting time" prevents me from setting my own schedule and rhythm.
WFH gets the very most productive hours of my day, lets me recharge with a rest or even a nap without a boss giving me the stinkeye, and is the very proof of what productivity experts were saying years before the pandemic forced it to happen.
Managers, on the other hand? Woof. It was shown that they just weren't actually doing much of anything.
posted by explosion at 6:07 AM on February 20, 2023 [76 favorites]
For me, anyway, it's exactly that. The commute saps me, the office environment stresses me, and the constant surveillance to ensure that I'm "not wasting time" prevents me from setting my own schedule and rhythm.
WFH gets the very most productive hours of my day, lets me recharge with a rest or even a nap without a boss giving me the stinkeye, and is the very proof of what productivity experts were saying years before the pandemic forced it to happen.
Managers, on the other hand? Woof. It was shown that they just weren't actually doing much of anything.
posted by explosion at 6:07 AM on February 20, 2023 [76 favorites]
If I commute in my self-driving Tesla while doing yoga and memorizing the Iliad, is that useful enough?
A true test of self-driving car proponents is what they predict the greatest benefit will be. Anyone who excitedly predicts that it will allow people to live farther out in the exurbs and spent their commute working while their cars drive them to the office is not to be trusted.
posted by RonButNotStupid at 6:29 AM on February 20, 2023 [20 favorites]
A true test of self-driving car proponents is what they predict the greatest benefit will be. Anyone who excitedly predicts that it will allow people to live farther out in the exurbs and spent their commute working while their cars drive them to the office is not to be trusted.
posted by RonButNotStupid at 6:29 AM on February 20, 2023 [20 favorites]
The company I work for switched literally overnight to 100% remote at the start of the pandemic, with extremely limited exceptions for people who had to be in the physical office (like to handle mail deliveries). The company leadership was open in how they thought this would be a disaster but they didn't have any other choice. They explored the option of utilizing the "critical worker" status to force office occupancy but recognized that many people would depart rather than go back in to the office early in the pandemic.
Over time, the requirements were relaxed to allow people who wanted to work from the office to do so, at which point mostly people with small children (and a spouse available to do child care) came in, but no one else. Along the way, they downsized most of the offices in recognition that there would never again be full occupancy.
Productivity and profits all went up and my impression is that retention stayed high.
At this point, there's been an official announcement that work will permanently remain remote, hybrid, or in-office, at the employee's discretion and with approval by supervisor. The majority of new hires that I see announced say something like "this person reports to the office in Place X, but will work remotely from Place Y," so if they were to reverse this, it would take a massive effort of both adding office space and giving a large percentage of workers an ultimatum. Since the competitors are also offering remote work, it's hard to imagine many people choosing to move rather than just find a new job.
And yet, despite all objective measures (like profits, net revenue, etc.) and worker satisfaction being up, the leadership is still visibly uncomfortable with the situation, and keep saying things like "to our surprise" and "this seems to be working for now but wouldn't it be nice if everyone came back." I really think it is a control thing -- it makes them very uncomfortable to have people scattered around and not be able to walk down a hallway and look into offices and cubicles and see people -- and they would be willing to accept lower profits and lower productivity in order to have people back in offices, if they thought they could get away with it.
posted by Dip Flash at 6:32 AM on February 20, 2023 [73 favorites]
Over time, the requirements were relaxed to allow people who wanted to work from the office to do so, at which point mostly people with small children (and a spouse available to do child care) came in, but no one else. Along the way, they downsized most of the offices in recognition that there would never again be full occupancy.
Productivity and profits all went up and my impression is that retention stayed high.
At this point, there's been an official announcement that work will permanently remain remote, hybrid, or in-office, at the employee's discretion and with approval by supervisor. The majority of new hires that I see announced say something like "this person reports to the office in Place X, but will work remotely from Place Y," so if they were to reverse this, it would take a massive effort of both adding office space and giving a large percentage of workers an ultimatum. Since the competitors are also offering remote work, it's hard to imagine many people choosing to move rather than just find a new job.
And yet, despite all objective measures (like profits, net revenue, etc.) and worker satisfaction being up, the leadership is still visibly uncomfortable with the situation, and keep saying things like "to our surprise" and "this seems to be working for now but wouldn't it be nice if everyone came back." I really think it is a control thing -- it makes them very uncomfortable to have people scattered around and not be able to walk down a hallway and look into offices and cubicles and see people -- and they would be willing to accept lower profits and lower productivity in order to have people back in offices, if they thought they could get away with it.
posted by Dip Flash at 6:32 AM on February 20, 2023 [73 favorites]
But how can I micromanage my lazy, overpaid employees if I can't see them?
posted by tommasz at 6:37 AM on February 20, 2023 [20 favorites]
posted by tommasz at 6:37 AM on February 20, 2023 [20 favorites]
Aren't there some security issues when it comes to work-related sensitive information and network usage?
posted by Selena777 at 6:38 AM on February 20, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by Selena777 at 6:38 AM on February 20, 2023 [1 favorite]
But how can I micromanage my lazy, overpaid employees if I can't see them?
more like, now that the tide is out, everyone can see I never had any pants to begin with
posted by chavenet at 6:40 AM on February 20, 2023 [29 favorites]
more like, now that the tide is out, everyone can see I never had any pants to begin with
posted by chavenet at 6:40 AM on February 20, 2023 [29 favorites]
Aren't there some security issues when it comes to work-related sensitive information and network usage?
It's going to be a trade-off. When employees are in the office, the risk is that they go browsing and download sketchy things onto work computers. When working from home, work assets are firewalled by VPN, et al.
I don't know what sort of sensitive information you've got in mind, specifically, but all workplaces operate using some amount of trust and internal controls. Nothing is 100% secure.
posted by explosion at 6:58 AM on February 20, 2023 [13 favorites]
It's going to be a trade-off. When employees are in the office, the risk is that they go browsing and download sketchy things onto work computers. When working from home, work assets are firewalled by VPN, et al.
I don't know what sort of sensitive information you've got in mind, specifically, but all workplaces operate using some amount of trust and internal controls. Nothing is 100% secure.
posted by explosion at 6:58 AM on February 20, 2023 [13 favorites]
Having just returned from a work trip where everyone was in a room together for the first time in 3 years, it became clear that while individual contributor style work will likely be lower in an office environment vs. work from home, collaborative work benefits greatly from IRL colocation. The good old-fashioned whiteboard is a million times more effective than any online collaboration tool in existence for quickly hashing out complex ideas.
posted by grumpybear69 at 7:12 AM on February 20, 2023 [24 favorites]
posted by grumpybear69 at 7:12 AM on February 20, 2023 [24 favorites]
I mean, yeah. But that still assumes the people in the room are eager to collaborate and the organization fosters a culture of collaboration. Whiteboards may be the most effective tool, but people always seem to forget that you can't just throw a bunch of people in a room with a whiteboard and expect them to be productive.
posted by RonButNotStupid at 7:18 AM on February 20, 2023 [11 favorites]
posted by RonButNotStupid at 7:18 AM on February 20, 2023 [11 favorites]
Regarding the supposed security issues of WFH:
I remember when I worked at a well known tech company, let's call it Pomme, that was super concerned about security and secrecy. I played their security theater game, because I liked to get paid, but in retrospect, it was 99% self-importance and creating the illusion that we working on a very Special and Super Important Thing.
So I dragged myself to the office, even though it often required 4+ hours of commuting a day.
MetaFriends, do you remember the extra special features of the latest release of any tech device? Do you remember the day of breathless announcements when it was released? Nah, neither do I. Laptops, phones and such are simply the hammers, wrenches, plumbing pipes and other tools of modern life - not that exciting, don't really require excessive security to be made.
posted by birdsongster at 7:37 AM on February 20, 2023 [15 favorites]
I remember when I worked at a well known tech company, let's call it Pomme, that was super concerned about security and secrecy. I played their security theater game, because I liked to get paid, but in retrospect, it was 99% self-importance and creating the illusion that we working on a very Special and Super Important Thing.
So I dragged myself to the office, even though it often required 4+ hours of commuting a day.
MetaFriends, do you remember the extra special features of the latest release of
posted by birdsongster at 7:37 AM on February 20, 2023 [15 favorites]
where are we putting “commenting on MetaFilter instead of doing this work” on the useless spectrum?
I think it increases my productivity. I take a 15-minute break at some point in the morning to read about a thing unrelated to work and maybe comment, and I come back with a slightly quieter mind and am able to get more done.
individual contributor style work will likely be lower in an office environment vs. work from home, collaborative work benefits greatly from IRL colocation
I'm an executive-level secretary working a hybrid schedule. WFH days, I am more easily able to get done tasks that require a higher level of sustained focus, like writing complicated correspondence or editing our website. In-office days, I can stick my head in my boss' office and ask him questions as they come up and he can sit down and ask me for things he needs to talk through with me to figure out what he even needs, which makes everything smoother, but I get interrupted more, so I tend to work on tasks that are more interruptible.
Different locations lend themselves to different kinds of work, so there's no one answer that will work for everybody. I think a hybrid schedule is ideal for the type of job I have, but obviously other jobs will require an in-person presence (e.g. surgeons) and others can be done 100% remote.
posted by joannemerriam at 7:39 AM on February 20, 2023 [14 favorites]
I think it increases my productivity. I take a 15-minute break at some point in the morning to read about a thing unrelated to work and maybe comment, and I come back with a slightly quieter mind and am able to get more done.
individual contributor style work will likely be lower in an office environment vs. work from home, collaborative work benefits greatly from IRL colocation
I'm an executive-level secretary working a hybrid schedule. WFH days, I am more easily able to get done tasks that require a higher level of sustained focus, like writing complicated correspondence or editing our website. In-office days, I can stick my head in my boss' office and ask him questions as they come up and he can sit down and ask me for things he needs to talk through with me to figure out what he even needs, which makes everything smoother, but I get interrupted more, so I tend to work on tasks that are more interruptible.
Different locations lend themselves to different kinds of work, so there's no one answer that will work for everybody. I think a hybrid schedule is ideal for the type of job I have, but obviously other jobs will require an in-person presence (e.g. surgeons) and others can be done 100% remote.
posted by joannemerriam at 7:39 AM on February 20, 2023 [14 favorites]
MetaFriends, do you remember the extra special features of the latest release of any tech device? Do you remember the day of breathless announcements when it was released
Uh, yes, actually.
posted by Galvanic at 7:39 AM on February 20, 2023 [3 favorites]
Uh, yes, actually.
posted by Galvanic at 7:39 AM on February 20, 2023 [3 favorites]
Managers, on the other hand? Woof. It was shown that they just weren't actually doing much of anything.
I am a manager (well, first-tier, low-level manager) and I strongly prefer WFH. It took some time for my team to get the hang of collaborating remotely but once we got over that hump it went quite well. As long as things get done, I really don't care what my subordinates do every minute of the day - I have better things to do with my time than watch over their shoulders. Also, I don't like commuting any more than anyone else - sacrificing 2 hrs/day and a significant amount of money to the DC traffic gods just to stare at a screen in another location to me is the height of stupidity.
Unfortunately, higher-level leadership in my organization are all dinosaurs who do not agree and has forced us all back in anyway.
posted by photo guy at 7:43 AM on February 20, 2023 [10 favorites]
I am a manager (well, first-tier, low-level manager) and I strongly prefer WFH. It took some time for my team to get the hang of collaborating remotely but once we got over that hump it went quite well. As long as things get done, I really don't care what my subordinates do every minute of the day - I have better things to do with my time than watch over their shoulders. Also, I don't like commuting any more than anyone else - sacrificing 2 hrs/day and a significant amount of money to the DC traffic gods just to stare at a screen in another location to me is the height of stupidity.
Unfortunately, higher-level leadership in my organization are all dinosaurs who do not agree and has forced us all back in anyway.
posted by photo guy at 7:43 AM on February 20, 2023 [10 favorites]
One other thing I don't think was mentioned upthread was just how exhausting commuting can be. On an average day I spend the first hour just tired and worn out from an early morning of fighting traffic or attempting to use a broken, unreliable transit system and stressing over making it to work on time. It's rare that I just plop down and start working, it takes time to recover and get up to speed. Then I'm trying to sneak out early to beat the traffic home and do it all in reverse.
Meanwhile at home I start early and happily work clear till dinnertime, and am far more focused on the actual work.
posted by photo guy at 7:51 AM on February 20, 2023 [15 favorites]
Meanwhile at home I start early and happily work clear till dinnertime, and am far more focused on the actual work.
posted by photo guy at 7:51 AM on February 20, 2023 [15 favorites]
The problems with "back to the office," meaning the phenomenon by which managers want to exert control over their workers, are separate from the idea of "back to the office" in general.
Pre-pandemic, I worked in a state job where managers had really internalized the "you owe everything to the taxpayer" mindset and were fairly tyrannical about policing people's time. So when things switched to WFH, it was an absolute blessing. In 2021 I changed jobs, and when I found out last year that we'd be required to start going into the office three days a week, I was pretty apprehensive.
But... at my job now, the managers don't hassle people, they trust people to get their work done, they let you come and go throughout the day and take breaks on your own schedule. Nobody is watching the clock. And now - although I'd still probably rather work from home full time, because of the commuting issue - I actually kind of ENJOY going to the office, because it's a dedicated workspace, which is something I don't have at home. The problem is that so many companies want the office to be MORE than a "dedicated workspace," they want it to be a Foucauldian panopticon.
posted by mellow seas at 8:18 AM on February 20, 2023 [10 favorites]
Pre-pandemic, I worked in a state job where managers had really internalized the "you owe everything to the taxpayer" mindset and were fairly tyrannical about policing people's time. So when things switched to WFH, it was an absolute blessing. In 2021 I changed jobs, and when I found out last year that we'd be required to start going into the office three days a week, I was pretty apprehensive.
But... at my job now, the managers don't hassle people, they trust people to get their work done, they let you come and go throughout the day and take breaks on your own schedule. Nobody is watching the clock. And now - although I'd still probably rather work from home full time, because of the commuting issue - I actually kind of ENJOY going to the office, because it's a dedicated workspace, which is something I don't have at home. The problem is that so many companies want the office to be MORE than a "dedicated workspace," they want it to be a Foucauldian panopticon.
posted by mellow seas at 8:18 AM on February 20, 2023 [10 favorites]
Whiteboards may be the most effective tool, but people always seem to forget that you can't just throw a bunch of people in a room with a whiteboard and expect them to be productive.
I mean, of course. There are a million things that go into making a team effective. Clear roles and responsibilities, a certain degree of autonomy, collective trust and respect, a manager (as in product, project or engineering) who manages the incoming workload and helps coordinate with other teams when necessary. If the team doesn't gel over Slack and Zoom, they're probably not going to gel in person, though of course there are exceptions. But if you have a high-performing team, they will do certain things better in person.
posted by grumpybear69 at 8:46 AM on February 20, 2023 [1 favorite]
I mean, of course. There are a million things that go into making a team effective. Clear roles and responsibilities, a certain degree of autonomy, collective trust and respect, a manager (as in product, project or engineering) who manages the incoming workload and helps coordinate with other teams when necessary. If the team doesn't gel over Slack and Zoom, they're probably not going to gel in person, though of course there are exceptions. But if you have a high-performing team, they will do certain things better in person.
posted by grumpybear69 at 8:46 AM on February 20, 2023 [1 favorite]
My company was fully onboard the WFH/hybrid thing, even leasing out several floors of our office tower. But that's changed in the new year - I suspect because some of our clients are multinational real estate investors and corporate landlords. Messaging went from "we're more productive than ever and proving to the world how flexible and adaptable we are" to "coming together as one shows how serious we are about doing good work." Barf. Of course the company widely advertises how much we care about our and our clients' ESG, while tens of thousands of us are resuming daily commutes and international travel.
posted by Stoof at 9:02 AM on February 20, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by Stoof at 9:02 AM on February 20, 2023 [4 favorites]
I went full time WFH at the beginning of the pandemic. It was fantastic. I was way more productive. So much so that I took on a chunk of extra work (with a commensurate pay increase) that I could now handle. Without a commute, I had extra time if I needed to work longer to get things done. It all worked out well. But two years later, they brought everyone back in. We are small teams, so it’s not like we’re an office full of people who collaborate all the time. There’s plenty of days where I’m alone. Being back in the office is a productivity sink. The commute is bad and about to get worse due to a major road construction project. As a result, I’m dropping the extra work. WFH was a boon for my productivity.
posted by azpenguin at 9:34 AM on February 20, 2023 [9 favorites]
posted by azpenguin at 9:34 AM on February 20, 2023 [9 favorites]
WFH can be a huge productivity boost for people with some medical issues. Specifically having ready access to a private bathroom in the case if one of my relatives who is now WFH. It not only increased their productivity if only from the reduction in time walking back and forth to a washroom it has also reduced thier absences because some days they would previously taken a sick day for they can now handle with a few extra bathroom visits.
posted by Mitheral at 9:50 AM on February 20, 2023 [34 favorites]
posted by Mitheral at 9:50 AM on February 20, 2023 [34 favorites]
For those of us who are immunocompromised, a work from home position is literally a life saver.
Or it would be if I could find one. If anyone needs a good tech support/customer service person for a remote position, please let me know. I'm getting desperate.
posted by MrVisible at 10:01 AM on February 20, 2023 [24 favorites]
Or it would be if I could find one. If anyone needs a good tech support/customer service person for a remote position, please let me know. I'm getting desperate.
posted by MrVisible at 10:01 AM on February 20, 2023 [24 favorites]
As others have mentioned, this article presents a weird way of interpreting the data - "productivity" (air-quotes since this is always a sorta wonky measurement) as presented in the article is still higher than in 2022 than anytime between 2012-2019. It shot up dramatically in 2020 (as hours worked tanked), and now has slightly decreased as hours worked has significantly increased. "Output" continues to climb.
This would seem to be more an indicator of what we already know - that in 2020, many people got laid off, those that got to keep their jobs experienced a mix of gratitude and anxiety that they might be fired, and with not much else to do (provided they weren't a dual-income household needing to also manage kids), worked extra hard. We also know that burnout takes awhile to show up - 2020 was the most challenging for me in terms of day-to-day work, and yet I did manage to do a lot of work - whereas now, I find getting work done harder, even though my work conditions have improved. I know from talking with friends that I'm not alone here.
posted by coffeecat at 10:23 AM on February 20, 2023 [3 favorites]
This would seem to be more an indicator of what we already know - that in 2020, many people got laid off, those that got to keep their jobs experienced a mix of gratitude and anxiety that they might be fired, and with not much else to do (provided they weren't a dual-income household needing to also manage kids), worked extra hard. We also know that burnout takes awhile to show up - 2020 was the most challenging for me in terms of day-to-day work, and yet I did manage to do a lot of work - whereas now, I find getting work done harder, even though my work conditions have improved. I know from talking with friends that I'm not alone here.
posted by coffeecat at 10:23 AM on February 20, 2023 [3 favorites]
By the time my company started making return-to-office noises, everyone with an ounce of ambition had already quit because they suspended all raises and bonuses for the past two years, despite productivity staying the same. Now there is no one to actually bring into the office so it's a moot point.
posted by meowzilla at 10:25 AM on February 20, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by meowzilla at 10:25 AM on February 20, 2023 [3 favorites]
MetaFriends, do you remember the extra special features of the latest release of any tech device?
Say what you want about Steve's insistence on company internal secrecy, and whether or not the internal roadblocks that impact intra-team communication are worth it when it comes to the end product, but it's undeniable that Apple (sorry, "Pomme") does nothing but announce features that everyone later remembers.
Also, we're down to 3 days in the office, so, COVID and our 26 months or whatever of WFH has brought a sea of change.
posted by Back At It Again At Krispy Kreme at 10:32 AM on February 20, 2023
Say what you want about Steve's insistence on company internal secrecy, and whether or not the internal roadblocks that impact intra-team communication are worth it when it comes to the end product, but it's undeniable that Apple (sorry, "Pomme") does nothing but announce features that everyone later remembers.
Also, we're down to 3 days in the office, so, COVID and our 26 months or whatever of WFH has brought a sea of change.
posted by Back At It Again At Krispy Kreme at 10:32 AM on February 20, 2023
My company is moving us to smaller hot desk offices, which seems to conflict with their statement we should all be in 3 days a week.
My boss only makes me come in for certain meetings and doesn't give a shit about the rule, so I'm going in maybe 4 days a month. So I'm basically good as long as it's her call.
I save so much time and money not going in it's like a mini-raise; I hope it continues this way.
posted by emjaybee at 11:01 AM on February 20, 2023
My boss only makes me come in for certain meetings and doesn't give a shit about the rule, so I'm going in maybe 4 days a month. So I'm basically good as long as it's her call.
I save so much time and money not going in it's like a mini-raise; I hope it continues this way.
posted by emjaybee at 11:01 AM on February 20, 2023
labor productivity, as a matter of accounting, is units of "work" (say, real GDP) divided by hours of work, as explosion points out. so in the aggregate, that is going to be very sensitive to the types of work being done. I completely believe that for many office jobs, WFH is a wash or positive for productivity, and for others it's a minus. but the fall and rise in productivity is almost certainly a function of the composition of the labor force; jobs that are less productive from the firm's point of view (and firms that are overall less productive) tend to be the first to go during recessions. This is not my main area, but I imagine the extensive margin (of job creation/destruction) really swamps the intensive margin (a given job is more productive/less productive given a WFH arrangement). I could be wrong. It's an empirical question. (and the productivity question is only part of a larger question about welfare; as many people note, commuting sucks and there's some re-allocation of time use towards leisure or a more pleasant working style that is probably helpful).
Nicholas Bloom at Stanford has a lot of really nice working papers on how work patterns have changed since the pandemic; his stuff probably answers this micro-productivity question.
Also, what is the relevant timing of this recession? We partially dodged a conventional recession during the pandemic, due to government spending, but then a somewhat more conventional recession started in Q1 and Q2 of 2022, and really took off with the rate hikes, no?
It's likely all these time frames represent recessions in some sense, so a productivity uptick in 2022 could be from a recession impacting consumer facing jobs, while a productivity uptick in Q3 and Q4 of 2022 could stem largely from tech & related layoff.
I don't think there's any reason to believe there was actually a recession in 2022, in the sense of a widespread drop in real economic activity.
posted by dismas at 11:12 AM on February 20, 2023 [6 favorites]
Nicholas Bloom at Stanford has a lot of really nice working papers on how work patterns have changed since the pandemic; his stuff probably answers this micro-productivity question.
Also, what is the relevant timing of this recession? We partially dodged a conventional recession during the pandemic, due to government spending, but then a somewhat more conventional recession started in Q1 and Q2 of 2022, and really took off with the rate hikes, no?
It's likely all these time frames represent recessions in some sense, so a productivity uptick in 2022 could be from a recession impacting consumer facing jobs, while a productivity uptick in Q3 and Q4 of 2022 could stem largely from tech & related layoff.
I don't think there's any reason to believe there was actually a recession in 2022, in the sense of a widespread drop in real economic activity.
posted by dismas at 11:12 AM on February 20, 2023 [6 favorites]
Recession, in only economic terms, means that the GDP of an entire country has decreased, regardless of population.
A million people dying from the pandemic, probably along with people disabled from long covid along with their caretakers, as well as people dying from unchecked opioid usage and car crashes, with reduced immigration, means that it is possible for individual productivity to increase while still having a recession.
U.S. Population Grew 0.1% in 2021, Slowest Rate Since Founding of the Nation
posted by meowzilla at 11:36 AM on February 20, 2023 [2 favorites]
A million people dying from the pandemic, probably along with people disabled from long covid along with their caretakers, as well as people dying from unchecked opioid usage and car crashes, with reduced immigration, means that it is possible for individual productivity to increase while still having a recession.
U.S. Population Grew 0.1% in 2021, Slowest Rate Since Founding of the Nation
posted by meowzilla at 11:36 AM on February 20, 2023 [2 favorites]
There are enough of other nice supporting citations in the article, even other effects confound his main arguments.
If Metafilter wants to have a share anecdotes about return to office harming their personal life, fine, but this post's title is "The return to the office could be the real reason for the slump in production" and the only link in the post extends that with "The return to the office could be the real reason for the slump in productivity. Here’s the data to prove it."
Well, na. There's a lot of variables going on in real life, and to disentangle it you need more than survey data. Economists have adopted a pretty good system of analysis called structural equation models to disentangle causality among all those variables. Instead what we are presented with is a variety of hypotheses.
---
On the anecdotes about RTO and productivity, I suspect a number of things going on simultaneously. Working in tech, some thoughts on why executives might be pushing for RTO against the popular sentiment:
1. Stealth layoffs. Ending WFH is a comming precursor to layoffs. And heck myabe some of the COVID hires were not up to pre-pandemic standards. Even in the most angelic case, your forecast for turnover during COVID/WFH may have been too high, leading to more headcount in 2022 than anticipated.
2. Unequal impact. Some research has shown that junior employees have not done well in the pandemic, while more senior programmers saw no change or even improved. The hardest, most important skill you need as a new hire is asking questions, and it feels like juniors won't use broadcast help channels for... help.
3. Frontline manager fear. Way too many first level managers just expect butts in seats to yield results. Especially in matrix management firms where project managers are assigning and tracking work, its very easy to fall into a presenteeism approach to management and focus your effort on managing up. And we've all seen that guy who turns the camera and mic off, never says anything and is always the last to leave a webex.
4. Exec level preferences. Managers who get promoted multiple times necessarily thrive in conference rooms, as thats all they do every day. COVID changed their job in ways that don't suit their preferences, and so they push to revert to the methods that got them to where they are now. "It just feels right."
5. Not everything can be done remotely. Manufacturing is an easy example. But even design testing requires stuff like EM cages, and test equipment too expensive to give every engineer. And it is not easy to demo your new mobile app to execs over zoom.
6. Tax compliance. We've probably all heard stories of people working from another state or country than what they told HR. Hopefully the 3 day a week "hybrid" modes shook those out. But in places that haven't gone back, New York in particular has annoying tax rules.
7. Remember when meetings would end on time because someone else booked the conference room? I used to hate that but I now see that the alternative isn't ending on time, it's PMs running never-ending zoom calls.
8. Some people actually prefer RTO. You might not have a spare bedroom for working, and definitely not a second one for your SO. And with child care to deal with, maybe you favor RTO. Or maybe you live alone and people in the office is all you have for social contact most days, and so you favor RTO for yourself and others.
9. Remember all those businesses that wanted to tax corporate cafeterias? They didn't all go out of business, and city councils still have to do something about all the dead commercial spaces.
--
Personally, I enjoy WFH. I can listen to music without headphones, and the snack pantry always has your favorite snacks. But more importantly, nobody's talking conference calls next to me at their desk, and nobody comes to my cube with an urgent non-problem that could have been a general inquiry to a slack channel our designated oncall for the week is watching.
But I acknowledge the possibility that my own productivity is a tiny drop in the overall data, and tech is such a niche sector that even if we all remained WFH the rest of the economy opening up should almost require a drop in productivity.
posted by pwnguin at 12:33 PM on February 20, 2023 [3 favorites]
If Metafilter wants to have a share anecdotes about return to office harming their personal life, fine, but this post's title is "The return to the office could be the real reason for the slump in production" and the only link in the post extends that with "The return to the office could be the real reason for the slump in productivity. Here’s the data to prove it."
Well, na. There's a lot of variables going on in real life, and to disentangle it you need more than survey data. Economists have adopted a pretty good system of analysis called structural equation models to disentangle causality among all those variables. Instead what we are presented with is a variety of hypotheses.
---
On the anecdotes about RTO and productivity, I suspect a number of things going on simultaneously. Working in tech, some thoughts on why executives might be pushing for RTO against the popular sentiment:
1. Stealth layoffs. Ending WFH is a comming precursor to layoffs. And heck myabe some of the COVID hires were not up to pre-pandemic standards. Even in the most angelic case, your forecast for turnover during COVID/WFH may have been too high, leading to more headcount in 2022 than anticipated.
2. Unequal impact. Some research has shown that junior employees have not done well in the pandemic, while more senior programmers saw no change or even improved. The hardest, most important skill you need as a new hire is asking questions, and it feels like juniors won't use broadcast help channels for... help.
3. Frontline manager fear. Way too many first level managers just expect butts in seats to yield results. Especially in matrix management firms where project managers are assigning and tracking work, its very easy to fall into a presenteeism approach to management and focus your effort on managing up. And we've all seen that guy who turns the camera and mic off, never says anything and is always the last to leave a webex.
4. Exec level preferences. Managers who get promoted multiple times necessarily thrive in conference rooms, as thats all they do every day. COVID changed their job in ways that don't suit their preferences, and so they push to revert to the methods that got them to where they are now. "It just feels right."
5. Not everything can be done remotely. Manufacturing is an easy example. But even design testing requires stuff like EM cages, and test equipment too expensive to give every engineer. And it is not easy to demo your new mobile app to execs over zoom.
6. Tax compliance. We've probably all heard stories of people working from another state or country than what they told HR. Hopefully the 3 day a week "hybrid" modes shook those out. But in places that haven't gone back, New York in particular has annoying tax rules.
7. Remember when meetings would end on time because someone else booked the conference room? I used to hate that but I now see that the alternative isn't ending on time, it's PMs running never-ending zoom calls.
8. Some people actually prefer RTO. You might not have a spare bedroom for working, and definitely not a second one for your SO. And with child care to deal with, maybe you favor RTO. Or maybe you live alone and people in the office is all you have for social contact most days, and so you favor RTO for yourself and others.
9. Remember all those businesses that wanted to tax corporate cafeterias? They didn't all go out of business, and city councils still have to do something about all the dead commercial spaces.
--
Personally, I enjoy WFH. I can listen to music without headphones, and the snack pantry always has your favorite snacks. But more importantly, nobody's talking conference calls next to me at their desk, and nobody comes to my cube with an urgent non-problem that could have been a general inquiry to a slack channel our designated oncall for the week is watching.
But I acknowledge the possibility that my own productivity is a tiny drop in the overall data, and tech is such a niche sector that even if we all remained WFH the rest of the economy opening up should almost require a drop in productivity.
posted by pwnguin at 12:33 PM on February 20, 2023 [3 favorites]
The hardest, most important skill you need as a new hire is asking questions, and it feels like juniors won't use broadcast help channels for... help.
It's more than that. The most important things I learned as a junior associate I learned via shadowing more senior people, and, yes, it's also a lot easier to start building your professional network with people you're in the room with. Admittedly, I did work for a firm that took pride in this approach as part of its historic culture. Several jobs later, WFH has on the whole been a plus for me and my rickety back, but I would hate to be coming in as a new lawyer now. I fear we're going to build up a training-and-culture deficit that will take its toll in later years.
posted by praemunire at 12:52 PM on February 20, 2023 [4 favorites]
It's more than that. The most important things I learned as a junior associate I learned via shadowing more senior people, and, yes, it's also a lot easier to start building your professional network with people you're in the room with. Admittedly, I did work for a firm that took pride in this approach as part of its historic culture. Several jobs later, WFH has on the whole been a plus for me and my rickety back, but I would hate to be coming in as a new lawyer now. I fear we're going to build up a training-and-culture deficit that will take its toll in later years.
posted by praemunire at 12:52 PM on February 20, 2023 [4 favorites]
Some people actually prefer RTO. You might not have a spare bedroom for working, and definitely not a second one for your SO. And with child care to deal with, maybe you favor RTO.
Good for them! Go into the office! If you find that's how you're most productive be my guest.
But when you start to say "I work best in the office, and I do so when i canharrass pop in on my coworkers to ask a quick question so they have to be there, too," I start to have a problem. Basically, not everyone works best from home. Not everyone works best in the office. Why do we have to settle on a lowest common denomenator?
Or maybe you live alone and people in the office is all you have for social contact most days, and so you favor RTO for yourself and others.
If this (or other "culture"/"we work better together" nonsense) is your justification, then socializing with your coworkers in the office is not about productivity any more than a WFHer folding laundry is.
posted by MrGuilt at 1:40 PM on February 20, 2023 [10 favorites]
Good for them! Go into the office! If you find that's how you're most productive be my guest.
But when you start to say "I work best in the office, and I do so when i can
Or maybe you live alone and people in the office is all you have for social contact most days, and so you favor RTO for yourself and others.
If this (or other "culture"/"we work better together" nonsense) is your justification, then socializing with your coworkers in the office is not about productivity any more than a WFHer folding laundry is.
posted by MrGuilt at 1:40 PM on February 20, 2023 [10 favorites]
One more point raised by those upthread: a lot of companies realized they could downsize their physical offices (and the fixed cost). I suspect that, as leases renew, more will assess the remote productivity versus square foot cost, and make a call.
Funny how WFH will be pushed when that happens.
posted by MrGuilt at 1:42 PM on February 20, 2023 [1 favorite]
Funny how WFH will be pushed when that happens.
posted by MrGuilt at 1:42 PM on February 20, 2023 [1 favorite]
9. Remember all those businesses that wanted to tax corporate cafeterias? They didn't all go out of business, and city councils still have to do something about all the dead commercial spaces.
Admittedly true. This has been an issue here in DC, where a lot of the pressure to return workers (specifically, federal workers) to the office has come from Bowser (backed by developers) because, basically, "we need the tax revenue" from people paying for parking/crappy overpriced lunches/etc. I get it, but as one of those employees it also pisses me off. Yes, let's clog the roads (and contribute to carbon emissions), strain the already-broken Metro system, and drive away good workers because the city can't be bothered to look for other sources of revenue.
posted by photo guy at 1:50 PM on February 20, 2023 [6 favorites]
Admittedly true. This has been an issue here in DC, where a lot of the pressure to return workers (specifically, federal workers) to the office has come from Bowser (backed by developers) because, basically, "we need the tax revenue" from people paying for parking/crappy overpriced lunches/etc. I get it, but as one of those employees it also pisses me off. Yes, let's clog the roads (and contribute to carbon emissions), strain the already-broken Metro system, and drive away good workers because the city can't be bothered to look for other sources of revenue.
posted by photo guy at 1:50 PM on February 20, 2023 [6 favorites]
"Productivity" isn't about how full your day is, it's about how much you get done.
In this case I believe it's about the total market value of goods and services produced economy-wide - i.e. GDP - divided by total number of hours worked.
I know that they do inflation adjustments when calculating GDP, and that inflation calculations include some sectors and not others, and that makes me curious to know exactly how, say, the rapid rise in food prices affects calculations of productivity for other sectors.
posted by clawsoon at 1:54 PM on February 20, 2023 [1 favorite]
In this case I believe it's about the total market value of goods and services produced economy-wide - i.e. GDP - divided by total number of hours worked.
I know that they do inflation adjustments when calculating GDP, and that inflation calculations include some sectors and not others, and that makes me curious to know exactly how, say, the rapid rise in food prices affects calculations of productivity for other sectors.
posted by clawsoon at 1:54 PM on February 20, 2023 [1 favorite]
...where a lot of the pressure to return workers (specifically, federal workers) to the office has come from Bowser (backed by developers) because, basically, "we need the tax revenue" from people paying for parking/crappy overpriced lunches/etc.
Ultimately, this shows the fault in the system. Why calling business owners "job creators" is flawed. The ultimate generator of economic activity is consumers, paying for parking, crappy overpriced lunches, etc. Nothing works without that.
The pandemic should have made this one of the lasting lessons: if people not hitting stores drove the economy to a halt and causing lasting damage, and low-wage workers became critical, maybe the system needs to be reevaluated.
posted by MrGuilt at 1:58 PM on February 20, 2023 [3 favorites]
Ultimately, this shows the fault in the system. Why calling business owners "job creators" is flawed. The ultimate generator of economic activity is consumers, paying for parking, crappy overpriced lunches, etc. Nothing works without that.
The pandemic should have made this one of the lasting lessons: if people not hitting stores drove the economy to a halt and causing lasting damage, and low-wage workers became critical, maybe the system needs to be reevaluated.
posted by MrGuilt at 1:58 PM on February 20, 2023 [3 favorites]
and low-wage workers became critical, maybe the system needs to be reevaluated.
What I realized during the lockdowns was that we've organized our economy for a number of centuries around making sure that critical workers are poorly paid and generally desperate. It's like we only trust people to do work that needs to be done if they have no other choice.
posted by clawsoon at 2:19 PM on February 20, 2023 [9 favorites]
What I realized during the lockdowns was that we've organized our economy for a number of centuries around making sure that critical workers are poorly paid and generally desperate. It's like we only trust people to do work that needs to be done if they have no other choice.
posted by clawsoon at 2:19 PM on February 20, 2023 [9 favorites]
Ain't trust but social control and resources. We exist in social class predation, or more parasitism, so exploitative social classes like nobles, managers, capitalists, lawyers, bureaucrats, advertisers, etc. somewhat unintentionally evolve towards themselves being more essential by somehow controlling essential work.
Yes, we rationalize this like David Graeber describes but it's really some prey vs predator-parasite phenomenon.
It’s as if they are being told “but you get to teach children! Or make cars! You get to have real jobs! And on top of that you have the nerve to also expect middle-class pensions and health care?”
posted by jeffburdges at 3:31 PM on February 20, 2023 [4 favorites]
Yes, we rationalize this like David Graeber describes but it's really some prey vs predator-parasite phenomenon.
It’s as if they are being told “but you get to teach children! Or make cars! You get to have real jobs! And on top of that you have the nerve to also expect middle-class pensions and health care?”
posted by jeffburdges at 3:31 PM on February 20, 2023 [4 favorites]
'San Francisco downtown as we know it is not coming back,' mayor proclaims:
posted by meowzilla at 3:59 PM on February 20, 2023 [6 favorites]
Breed recounted how even though the city has struggled to return to its pre-pandemic state, downtown San Francisco was in far worse shape after the 1906 earthquake.Yay, we're not a pile of rubble, I guess?
“In 1907, downtown was mostly rubble and ash. That’s considerably worse than today’s shift in how people are working,” she said.
posted by meowzilla at 3:59 PM on February 20, 2023 [6 favorites]
But when you start to say "I work best in the office, and I do so when i can harass pop in on my coworkers to ask a quick question so they have to be there, too," I start to have a problem.
We briefly discussed this, and concluded it would create a two-class system where you had a group of people who were in the office and getting face-to-face time with the executives - doing amazing stand up presentations with whiteboards and big charts pinned to the walls, engaging in debate and rapid fire questions / answers.
And you'd have a group of people who would dial in on those meetings and essentially become almost invisible in the room, they are going to be at a significant disadvantage. An internal survey found most of these would be women with carer duties.
We already have this experience in doing out-sourcing of work to India or Philippines.
We decided the fairest method is to do permanent 100% work from home forever.
posted by xdvesper at 7:58 PM on February 20, 2023 [13 favorites]
We briefly discussed this, and concluded it would create a two-class system where you had a group of people who were in the office and getting face-to-face time with the executives - doing amazing stand up presentations with whiteboards and big charts pinned to the walls, engaging in debate and rapid fire questions / answers.
And you'd have a group of people who would dial in on those meetings and essentially become almost invisible in the room, they are going to be at a significant disadvantage. An internal survey found most of these would be women with carer duties.
We already have this experience in doing out-sourcing of work to India or Philippines.
We decided the fairest method is to do permanent 100% work from home forever.
posted by xdvesper at 7:58 PM on February 20, 2023 [13 favorites]
That means your meetings are being run poorly (and likely with the wrong/insufficient tech tools to facilitate running them well).
People had to learn how to do things well in offices, too. That mode of structuring work has just been around for longer. Fortunately despite the much shorter time period for remote tools, the rate of research in every topic has accelerated since the days when offices were invented, and there is a (not complete by any means but) reasonable amount of information available, at least in the educational sphere.
‘Course, what a lot of it says is that the ways you get good engagement, develop cohesive teams, create effective learning and mentorship experiences for newer folks, and ensure equitable career progression for everyone regardless of whether they are in-person or remote involve a fair amount of care-type work (labor-intensive, in an area of labor that is not typically valued much in most workplaces) along with organizational structures that are somewhat antithetical to capitalism.
posted by eviemath at 8:48 PM on February 20, 2023
People had to learn how to do things well in offices, too. That mode of structuring work has just been around for longer. Fortunately despite the much shorter time period for remote tools, the rate of research in every topic has accelerated since the days when offices were invented, and there is a (not complete by any means but) reasonable amount of information available, at least in the educational sphere.
‘Course, what a lot of it says is that the ways you get good engagement, develop cohesive teams, create effective learning and mentorship experiences for newer folks, and ensure equitable career progression for everyone regardless of whether they are in-person or remote involve a fair amount of care-type work (labor-intensive, in an area of labor that is not typically valued much in most workplaces) along with organizational structures that are somewhat antithetical to capitalism.
posted by eviemath at 8:48 PM on February 20, 2023
Without a commute, I had extra time if I needed to work longer to get things done
It does help productivity if you don't have to suddenly drop everything right at 5 or whenever so you can make the train going home.
posted by gtrwolf at 9:55 PM on February 20, 2023 [2 favorites]
It does help productivity if you don't have to suddenly drop everything right at 5 or whenever so you can make the train going home.
posted by gtrwolf at 9:55 PM on February 20, 2023 [2 favorites]
That means your meetings are being run poorly (and likely with the wrong/insufficient tech tools to facilitate running them well).
I can run meetings with 100% people online, and I can run meetings with 100% people in-person.
Based on our trials, running a meeting with 50% online and 50% in-person is a pretty awful experience, and I daresay most people would agree with me. We have these creepy fancy cameras that swivel and zoom in on the person talking, with multiple smart mics in the room that try to make sure they only pick up the person speaking, so the people online can see and hear them. Only it doesn't quite work all the time, doesn't work when a person walks around and writes on a whiteboard, it requires everyone to remain fixed in their seats.
It was rare for any of the online participants to speak up unless directly asked to, made even worse that there was self-selection where the people who were the quietest / most introverted were the ones who elected to stay home anyway. Especially for video / audio display - I can play a crisp high definition video showing the latest product in-person, but once it gets piped through any kind of software which re-encodes the video in real time, the quality goes to crap.
If these limitations work for you... go for it! It just didn't work for us.
posted by xdvesper at 10:08 PM on February 20, 2023 [6 favorites]
I can run meetings with 100% people online, and I can run meetings with 100% people in-person.
Based on our trials, running a meeting with 50% online and 50% in-person is a pretty awful experience, and I daresay most people would agree with me. We have these creepy fancy cameras that swivel and zoom in on the person talking, with multiple smart mics in the room that try to make sure they only pick up the person speaking, so the people online can see and hear them. Only it doesn't quite work all the time, doesn't work when a person walks around and writes on a whiteboard, it requires everyone to remain fixed in their seats.
It was rare for any of the online participants to speak up unless directly asked to, made even worse that there was self-selection where the people who were the quietest / most introverted were the ones who elected to stay home anyway. Especially for video / audio display - I can play a crisp high definition video showing the latest product in-person, but once it gets piped through any kind of software which re-encodes the video in real time, the quality goes to crap.
If these limitations work for you... go for it! It just didn't work for us.
posted by xdvesper at 10:08 PM on February 20, 2023 [6 favorites]
'San Francisco downtown as we know it is not coming back,' mayor proclaims:
Hopefully someone will eventually tell the landlords or whoever owns those empty (or soon to be empty) commercial spaces.
And for all the talk about prioritizing art and culture and etc., you know the "tax breaks" will be used less to sustain current SF fixtures and more to encourage stuff like "cutting edge private event spaces" that are taking said fixtures' place.
posted by gtrwolf at 10:19 PM on February 20, 2023 [3 favorites]
Hopefully someone will eventually tell the landlords or whoever owns those empty (or soon to be empty) commercial spaces.
And for all the talk about prioritizing art and culture and etc., you know the "tax breaks" will be used less to sustain current SF fixtures and more to encourage stuff like "cutting edge private event spaces" that are taking said fixtures' place.
posted by gtrwolf at 10:19 PM on February 20, 2023 [3 favorites]
Where do the household chores I get done during pointless meetings figure into this productivity equation?
posted by thorny at 5:11 AM on February 21, 2023 [8 favorites]
posted by thorny at 5:11 AM on February 21, 2023 [8 favorites]
running a meeting with 50% online and 50% in-person is a pretty awful experience
Can confirm. It is primarily an eye contact and point of focus issue.
Back in 2013 I was doing remote work with a company out of Boise and a group of workers in Costa Rica. We would do daily meetings over video. Each location had everyone sitting in a manner where they faced the camera and the screen, which allowed all participants to feel involved and seen.
Fast forward to present day setups, and you have meeting rooms where people are around a table, plus a screen and camera that nobody is looking at. Everyone not in the room feels invisible and the people in the room often forget the screen is even there.
posted by grumpybear69 at 7:53 AM on February 21, 2023 [5 favorites]
Can confirm. It is primarily an eye contact and point of focus issue.
Back in 2013 I was doing remote work with a company out of Boise and a group of workers in Costa Rica. We would do daily meetings over video. Each location had everyone sitting in a manner where they faced the camera and the screen, which allowed all participants to feel involved and seen.
Fast forward to present day setups, and you have meeting rooms where people are around a table, plus a screen and camera that nobody is looking at. Everyone not in the room feels invisible and the people in the room often forget the screen is even there.
posted by grumpybear69 at 7:53 AM on February 21, 2023 [5 favorites]
In Greek or translated to the vulgate?
Greek, but you have to do the pitch accents.
labor productivity, as a matter of accounting, is units of "work" (say, real GDP) divided by hours of work, as explosion points out. so in the aggregate, that is going to be very sensitive to the types of work being done.
Also to certain assumptions. E.g. The UK and France model education based on an output model (they measure how many "units" of education are being delivered relative to a reference) but most other countries just measure the cost inputs into education. So the UK had relatively long school closures and remote periods which were modelled as reductions in effective units of education, France had much shorter school closures, and other countries had a range including places in the US like California which had closures that look literally unbelievable to me.
This showed up as a small temporary reduction in UK GDP, a smaller reduction in French GDP, and no change to the GDP of most other countries, including where their schools were closed for much longer.
Where do the household chores I get done during pointless meetings figure into this productivity equation?
It's a genuinely good question since improvements in domestic productivity notoriously don't show up in GDP very well if at all i.e. if doing laundry took half as much time, that wouldn't show up unless we used the extra time to work or consume.
Managers, on the other hand? Woof. It was shown that they just weren't actually doing much of anything.
The problem is that nobody ever gets any real training on how to be a manager. They just get promoted to being a first among equals and then to lead a team and... that's it. There's books, some very good ones actually, but nobody makes you read them.
I am continuously amazed at how stressed my peers are by their (our) management jobs just because they're not really doing them properly. Imaging having a team of five people and needing to physically see them in order to manage their output! Ludicrous. And yet, most managers try and do precisely that.
posted by atrazine at 8:26 AM on February 21, 2023 [1 favorite]
Greek, but you have to do the pitch accents.
labor productivity, as a matter of accounting, is units of "work" (say, real GDP) divided by hours of work, as explosion points out. so in the aggregate, that is going to be very sensitive to the types of work being done.
Also to certain assumptions. E.g. The UK and France model education based on an output model (they measure how many "units" of education are being delivered relative to a reference) but most other countries just measure the cost inputs into education. So the UK had relatively long school closures and remote periods which were modelled as reductions in effective units of education, France had much shorter school closures, and other countries had a range including places in the US like California which had closures that look literally unbelievable to me.
This showed up as a small temporary reduction in UK GDP, a smaller reduction in French GDP, and no change to the GDP of most other countries, including where their schools were closed for much longer.
Where do the household chores I get done during pointless meetings figure into this productivity equation?
It's a genuinely good question since improvements in domestic productivity notoriously don't show up in GDP very well if at all i.e. if doing laundry took half as much time, that wouldn't show up unless we used the extra time to work or consume.
Managers, on the other hand? Woof. It was shown that they just weren't actually doing much of anything.
The problem is that nobody ever gets any real training on how to be a manager. They just get promoted to being a first among equals and then to lead a team and... that's it. There's books, some very good ones actually, but nobody makes you read them.
I am continuously amazed at how stressed my peers are by their (our) management jobs just because they're not really doing them properly. Imaging having a team of five people and needing to physically see them in order to manage their output! Ludicrous. And yet, most managers try and do precisely that.
posted by atrazine at 8:26 AM on February 21, 2023 [1 favorite]
The thing I miss most about the office is going out to lunch with the gang
posted by sjswitzer at 9:07 AM on February 21, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by sjswitzer at 9:07 AM on February 21, 2023 [2 favorites]
Also to certain assumptions. E.g. The UK and France model education based on an output model (they measure how many "units" of education are being delivered relative to a reference) but most other countries just measure the cost inputs into education. So the UK had relatively long school closures and remote periods which were modelled as reductions in effective units of education, France had much shorter school closures, and other countries had a range including places in the US like California which had closures that look literally unbelievable to me.
Good point, yes. This is all subject to how output is measured in the data, which is harmonized to some extent but not completely.
I didn't actually know how time use surveys tend to handle multitasking (e.g., cleaning or cooking while you're on a call ). The BLS's American Time Use Survey apparently only collects data on the primary activity except in the case of childcare. So from a data perspective, if you're working and also sweeping, the time use data would count whichever one you said you were doing primarily.
Measurement is hard/measurement interesting
posted by dismas at 9:09 AM on February 21, 2023
My productivity went up when you all were working from home, because I could commute downtown in minutes. I miss those days, when the highways were for just us in-person chumps.
posted by The corpse in the library at 12:17 PM on February 21, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by The corpse in the library at 12:17 PM on February 21, 2023 [4 favorites]
After two years of WFH, I think the simple return to the office (for my employer, two days a week minimum) is decreasing productivity simply because we'd adapted to and got used to remote work patterns. Most days in the office, I don't anything differently from how I operate at home: I work on my computer, I read emails, I take virtual meetings. But instead of just taking a virtual meeting where I sit, I have to find a private room so that confidential information isn't shared inappropriately. (Luckily, my dog can be entrusted with all secrets and she's never leaked any information she overhears.) The only time I have been in a room with other people is when I specifically make an effort to do.
The other difference is that I'm masking all day (because the ventilation in my primary office is terrible and there are regular covid instances and I don't want to get covid again), which I don't have to do at home either.
I'm also less motivated at work because the primary executive at my employer basically said he wanted people back in the office for "downtown revitalization" so the signal being sent is that my labour is immaterial to the success of the municipality, but really matters is whether I spend money downtown. We aren't even valued/exploited as workers, just as captive consumers.
The way people work has been fundamentally and (I think) forever changed. Employers would do well to accept it and then find the best way to support remote work most of the time (for e.g. having the ability to recruit employees from the whole country rather than a specific region, thus increasing the talent pool), and then plan in person interactions to work around operational needs (like a brainstorming or workshopping event) rather than arbitrary rule that people need to be onsite for a particular proportion of their working hours.
posted by Kurichina at 1:25 PM on February 21, 2023 [4 favorites]
The other difference is that I'm masking all day (because the ventilation in my primary office is terrible and there are regular covid instances and I don't want to get covid again), which I don't have to do at home either.
I'm also less motivated at work because the primary executive at my employer basically said he wanted people back in the office for "downtown revitalization" so the signal being sent is that my labour is immaterial to the success of the municipality, but really matters is whether I spend money downtown. We aren't even valued/exploited as workers, just as captive consumers.
The way people work has been fundamentally and (I think) forever changed. Employers would do well to accept it and then find the best way to support remote work most of the time (for e.g. having the ability to recruit employees from the whole country rather than a specific region, thus increasing the talent pool), and then plan in person interactions to work around operational needs (like a brainstorming or workshopping event) rather than arbitrary rule that people need to be onsite for a particular proportion of their working hours.
posted by Kurichina at 1:25 PM on February 21, 2023 [4 favorites]
My company was fully onboard the WFH/hybrid thing, even leasing out several floors of our office tower. But that's changed in the new year - I suspect because some of our clients are multinational real estate investors and corporate landlords. Messaging went from "we're more productive than ever and proving to the world how flexible and adaptable we are" to "coming together as one shows how serious we are about doing good work."
You hit the nail on the head. Real estate investors (especially those who have invested in "downtown" office buildings or suburban office parks) hate WFH, because they stand to lose lots of money, as it becomes harder to justify high rents for prime downtown office space when fewer people commute into an office building. Inside large companies, there's also usually a department called "corporate facilities" or "building operations," who also have self-interested reasons for pushing return to office.
Another special interest pushing for return-to-office are big city mayors who find it easier to squeeze tax revenue out of downtown businesses (who probably have very low effective tax rates) than to squeeze it out of eternally pissed off city voters/homeowners (who can't "spread out" their tax rate the way a multimillion or multibillion dollar business can). That's not to mention all the downtown restaurants, convenience stores etc. that are probably talking the mayor's ear off complaining about how work from home emptied out their downtown customer base. I suspect Democratic mayors were the major influence on Biden in getting him to declare that "COVID is over" and push people into returning to the office.
posted by jonp72 at 2:40 PM on February 21, 2023 [4 favorites]
You hit the nail on the head. Real estate investors (especially those who have invested in "downtown" office buildings or suburban office parks) hate WFH, because they stand to lose lots of money, as it becomes harder to justify high rents for prime downtown office space when fewer people commute into an office building. Inside large companies, there's also usually a department called "corporate facilities" or "building operations," who also have self-interested reasons for pushing return to office.
Another special interest pushing for return-to-office are big city mayors who find it easier to squeeze tax revenue out of downtown businesses (who probably have very low effective tax rates) than to squeeze it out of eternally pissed off city voters/homeowners (who can't "spread out" their tax rate the way a multimillion or multibillion dollar business can). That's not to mention all the downtown restaurants, convenience stores etc. that are probably talking the mayor's ear off complaining about how work from home emptied out their downtown customer base. I suspect Democratic mayors were the major influence on Biden in getting him to declare that "COVID is over" and push people into returning to the office.
posted by jonp72 at 2:40 PM on February 21, 2023 [4 favorites]
Some people actually prefer RTO. You might not have a spare bedroom for working, and definitely not a second one for your SO. And with child care to deal with, maybe you favor RTO.
I'm quite bullish on work from home, but some employees are in living situations where they don't have viable options for a home office. Younger unmarried twentysomething employees who live in sometimes chaotic house sharing arrangements with multiple roommates may feel a greater need to be in an office than someone who has easy access to a "room of one's own."
posted by jonp72 at 2:51 PM on February 21, 2023 [2 favorites]
I'm quite bullish on work from home, but some employees are in living situations where they don't have viable options for a home office. Younger unmarried twentysomething employees who live in sometimes chaotic house sharing arrangements with multiple roommates may feel a greater need to be in an office than someone who has easy access to a "room of one's own."
posted by jonp72 at 2:51 PM on February 21, 2023 [2 favorites]
We briefly discussed this, and concluded it would create a two-class system where you had a group of people who were in the office and getting face-to-face time with the executives - doing amazing stand up presentations with whiteboards and big charts pinned to the walls, engaging in debate and rapid fire questions / answers.
This is a situation ripe for bias, because executive tend to be disproportionately extroverted, which means that, unless you take steps to counter the bias, they will favor employees who are also extroverted. Employees will be rated on their ability on their ability to schmooze and manage "face time" over productivity or competence.
posted by jonp72 at 2:56 PM on February 21, 2023 [1 favorite]
This is a situation ripe for bias, because executive tend to be disproportionately extroverted, which means that, unless you take steps to counter the bias, they will favor employees who are also extroverted. Employees will be rated on their ability on their ability to schmooze and manage "face time" over productivity or competence.
posted by jonp72 at 2:56 PM on February 21, 2023 [1 favorite]
The most important things I learned as a junior associate I learned via shadowing more senior people, and, yes, it's also a lot easier to start building your professional network with people you're in the room with. Admittedly, I did work for a firm that took pride in this approach as part of its historic culture. Several jobs later, WFH has on the whole been a plus for me and my rickety back, but I would hate to be coming in as a new lawyer now.
This is definitely a dynamic I see in the research literature on work from home. Older, more experienced workers tend to reap more benefits from the work from home situation (e.g., higher productivity, higher job satisfaction, lower job-related expenses), whereas more junior, less experienced employees get less benefit from remote work from home arrangements, because they are less likely to have a good onboarding experience or less likely to stay with the company, and if they do stay, they're less likely to advance because they're not "visible" enough.
posted by jonp72 at 3:01 PM on February 21, 2023 [2 favorites]
This is definitely a dynamic I see in the research literature on work from home. Older, more experienced workers tend to reap more benefits from the work from home situation (e.g., higher productivity, higher job satisfaction, lower job-related expenses), whereas more junior, less experienced employees get less benefit from remote work from home arrangements, because they are less likely to have a good onboarding experience or less likely to stay with the company, and if they do stay, they're less likely to advance because they're not "visible" enough.
posted by jonp72 at 3:01 PM on February 21, 2023 [2 favorites]
Older, more experienced workers tend to reap more benefits from the work from home situation (e.g., higher productivity, higher job satisfaction, lower job-related expenses), whereas more junior, less experienced employees get less benefit from remote work from home arrangements, because they are less likely to have a good onboarding experience or less likely to stay with the company
Is there a direct relationship here by any chance? Experienced employees are more productive because they're interrupted less often by junior employees, but junior employees are less productive because they're interrupting senior employees less often?
posted by clawsoon at 3:21 PM on February 21, 2023
Is there a direct relationship here by any chance? Experienced employees are more productive because they're interrupted less often by junior employees, but junior employees are less productive because they're interrupting senior employees less often?
posted by clawsoon at 3:21 PM on February 21, 2023
Is there a direct relationship here by any chance? Experienced employees are more productive because they're interrupted less often by junior employees, but junior employees are less productive because they're interrupting senior employees less often?
It's tough to say. Once you have employees engaging in social interaction, such that the behaviors of one employee impacts he productivity of the other, it becomes way harder to mathematically model it. With junior employees, most of the research I've read suggests that it has less to do with lower productivity from junior employees per se than the fact that remote work robs the junior employee of the opportunity to get acculturated to the company's culture and norms. The less embedded a junior employee is in a company's culture, the less effective they will be in getting things done, the less opportunity they have to advance, & the less likely they are to stay.
On the other hand, it could be that older employers are more productive doing work from home because they're spending less time mentoring junior employees (and/or being interrupted by them). However, I doubt that the effect of inexperienced junior employees themselves is all that great compared to other sources. Interruptions in a return to office situation can come from all many places, not just from junior employees. The term for it in the research lingo I'm most familiar with is the "cake in the breakroom" effect, which shows how a lot of routine socializing and celebrating can drain productivity. If you work from home, you really don't have to deal with any of that.
posted by jonp72 at 3:42 PM on February 21, 2023
It's tough to say. Once you have employees engaging in social interaction, such that the behaviors of one employee impacts he productivity of the other, it becomes way harder to mathematically model it. With junior employees, most of the research I've read suggests that it has less to do with lower productivity from junior employees per se than the fact that remote work robs the junior employee of the opportunity to get acculturated to the company's culture and norms. The less embedded a junior employee is in a company's culture, the less effective they will be in getting things done, the less opportunity they have to advance, & the less likely they are to stay.
On the other hand, it could be that older employers are more productive doing work from home because they're spending less time mentoring junior employees (and/or being interrupted by them). However, I doubt that the effect of inexperienced junior employees themselves is all that great compared to other sources. Interruptions in a return to office situation can come from all many places, not just from junior employees. The term for it in the research lingo I'm most familiar with is the "cake in the breakroom" effect, which shows how a lot of routine socializing and celebrating can drain productivity. If you work from home, you really don't have to deal with any of that.
posted by jonp72 at 3:42 PM on February 21, 2023
The term for it in the research lingo I'm most familiar with is the "cake in the breakroom" effect, which shows how a lot of routine socializing and celebrating can drain productivity.
It seems like inhuman systems get invented to maximize somebody's wealth and power by mechanically squeezing the most out of workers, but over time workers figure out ways to make the system human again with things like "cake in the breakroom".
I.e. the flipside of productivity is finding ways to live like a human instead of a machine, even inside a system that wants you to be a machine.
posted by clawsoon at 4:35 PM on February 21, 2023 [8 favorites]
It seems like inhuman systems get invented to maximize somebody's wealth and power by mechanically squeezing the most out of workers, but over time workers figure out ways to make the system human again with things like "cake in the breakroom".
I.e. the flipside of productivity is finding ways to live like a human instead of a machine, even inside a system that wants you to be a machine.
posted by clawsoon at 4:35 PM on February 21, 2023 [8 favorites]
MetaFriends, do you remember the extra special features of the latest release of any tech device?
Absolutely never. And I work and report in the tech industry, lol.
I’m back to 1 day/week at the office, and it’s kind of pointless because I work for a large company.
You can’t transfer work to remote positions around the country and the world (in order to pay less) and then expect people to come into offices for Zoom calls.
I miss a full office with all in-person meetings, but only small companies will ever be able to do that again.
posted by mrgrimm at 1:39 PM on February 22, 2023 [3 favorites]
Absolutely never. And I work and report in the tech industry, lol.
I’m back to 1 day/week at the office, and it’s kind of pointless because I work for a large company.
You can’t transfer work to remote positions around the country and the world (in order to pay less) and then expect people to come into offices for Zoom calls.
I miss a full office with all in-person meetings, but only small companies will ever be able to do that again.
posted by mrgrimm at 1:39 PM on February 22, 2023 [3 favorites]
We briefly discussed this, and concluded it would create a two-class system where you had a group of people who were in the office and getting face-to-face time with the executives - doing amazing stand up presentations with whiteboards and big charts pinned to the walls, engaging in debate and rapid fire questions / answers.
And you'd have a group of people who would dial in on those meetings and essentially become almost invisible in the room, they are going to be at a significant disadvantage. An internal survey found most of these would be women with carer duties.
This also happens when everyone is required to commute to the physical office. I don't think working remotely has really helped my career advancement, but when we weren't working remotely I wasn't really advancing much anyway on account of introversion and my inability to mirror executives in a way that makes them feel comfortable. So at least working remotely now I don't actively harm my advancement as much as I used to.
When HR came asking for "feedback" on letting people return to the office on a volunteer basis a year or two ago, I gave a response along the lines of what xdvesper said. This would advantage some employees and mean we had to choose between preserving our health by continuing to work remotely or advancing our career at risk to ourselves, our coworkers, and any people we came in contact with as a result (loved ones or other people working now being exposed to more people). It would have been nice if they had listened.
posted by Nec_variat_lux_fracta_colorem at 5:24 PM on February 23, 2023 [5 favorites]
And you'd have a group of people who would dial in on those meetings and essentially become almost invisible in the room, they are going to be at a significant disadvantage. An internal survey found most of these would be women with carer duties.
This also happens when everyone is required to commute to the physical office. I don't think working remotely has really helped my career advancement, but when we weren't working remotely I wasn't really advancing much anyway on account of introversion and my inability to mirror executives in a way that makes them feel comfortable. So at least working remotely now I don't actively harm my advancement as much as I used to.
When HR came asking for "feedback" on letting people return to the office on a volunteer basis a year or two ago, I gave a response along the lines of what xdvesper said. This would advantage some employees and mean we had to choose between preserving our health by continuing to work remotely or advancing our career at risk to ourselves, our coworkers, and any people we came in contact with as a result (loved ones or other people working now being exposed to more people). It would have been nice if they had listened.
posted by Nec_variat_lux_fracta_colorem at 5:24 PM on February 23, 2023 [5 favorites]
So at least working remotely now I don't actively harm my advancement as much as I used to.
Same! Though I can't advance at all, so it matters not. I like literally not being seen as much as I used to and not being kept tabs on physically as much as I used to. Even on in-office days they have to let me have my own office and close the door because covid.
posted by jenfullmoon at 5:43 PM on February 23, 2023
Same! Though I can't advance at all, so it matters not. I like literally not being seen as much as I used to and not being kept tabs on physically as much as I used to. Even on in-office days they have to let me have my own office and close the door because covid.
posted by jenfullmoon at 5:43 PM on February 23, 2023
and not being kept tabs on physically as much as I used to.
I did end up terminating one employee primarily due to work from home. He did ok in the office (worked for me for two years in person) but since work from home was a thing, his output pretty much dropped off a cliff. I estimate he would do about 10 hours work in a 40 hour week, and this is benchmarked against 10-15 employees doing the same type of work before and after transition to work from home. I'd literally ask him to review some documents with me the first chance he got, and he simply wouldn't log in, I'd be waiting from 8am to 7pm that night asking him where he was on IM and he wouldn't respond, and then at the end of the day I'd say, ok so this is counted as an absence, right, then he'd say no he worked 8 solid hours that day, please pay him for those hours.
I suspect he was generally unmotivated but since he was "stuck" in the office he might as well do the work, once he was remote he literally found anything else more interesting. I mean, for all I know, he could have taken on a second job and was doing that instead, drawing two salaries at once and waiting to see how long it took until I terminated him.
It was a decent job too (around $100,000 per year) and I suspect he'd still be employed if we hadn't transitioned to work from home.
posted by xdvesper at 7:18 PM on February 23, 2023
I did end up terminating one employee primarily due to work from home. He did ok in the office (worked for me for two years in person) but since work from home was a thing, his output pretty much dropped off a cliff. I estimate he would do about 10 hours work in a 40 hour week, and this is benchmarked against 10-15 employees doing the same type of work before and after transition to work from home. I'd literally ask him to review some documents with me the first chance he got, and he simply wouldn't log in, I'd be waiting from 8am to 7pm that night asking him where he was on IM and he wouldn't respond, and then at the end of the day I'd say, ok so this is counted as an absence, right, then he'd say no he worked 8 solid hours that day, please pay him for those hours.
I suspect he was generally unmotivated but since he was "stuck" in the office he might as well do the work, once he was remote he literally found anything else more interesting. I mean, for all I know, he could have taken on a second job and was doing that instead, drawing two salaries at once and waiting to see how long it took until I terminated him.
It was a decent job too (around $100,000 per year) and I suspect he'd still be employed if we hadn't transitioned to work from home.
posted by xdvesper at 7:18 PM on February 23, 2023
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