"Look after Mr Prigozhin. See that some harm comes to him."

August 23, 2023 11:17 AM

BBC: Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin presumed dead after Russia plane crash

Previously on Metafilter: It has begun! PWC WAGNER'S owner Prigozhin has called Russians to unite behind him and bring justice and fairness to Russia!

It appears that Putin's standard for serving revenge cold may be about ten weeks.

posted by Major Clanger (435 comments total)

this is my surprised face. :|
posted by roue at 11:19 AM on August 23, 2023 [50 favorites]

I would think this would be pretty disruptive to Russia's ongoing ground offensive. What a score for Ukraine if they're behind it.
posted by ZenMasterThis at 11:19 AM on August 23, 2023

don't ever stand too close to a guy like that...
posted by mattgriffin at 11:21 AM on August 23, 2023 [2 favorites]

I'm going to need to see a corpse before I believe anything.
posted by praemunire at 11:21 AM on August 23, 2023 [37 favorites]

The Chef has been 86'ed.

. for the Death Star contractors
posted by credulous at 11:26 AM on August 23, 2023 [5 favorites]

All the windows in Moscow were nailed shut after the last guy who "fell".
posted by briank at 11:26 AM on August 23, 2023 [9 favorites]

Does this count as an edge case of the general "falling out of a window" category?
posted by Hairy Lobster at 11:27 AM on August 23, 2023 [18 favorites]

You come at the King, you best not miss

[cuts both ways I guess, until they find the body]
posted by chavenet at 11:27 AM on August 23, 2023 [8 favorites]

What a score for Ukraine if they're behind it.

Yeah right. Defo not the megalomanical dictator of Russia with a long history of political assassinations, of whom Prigozhin committed the most cardinal of all sins: questioning his complete authority.
posted by mcstayinskool at 11:28 AM on August 23, 2023 [53 favorites]

I guess you can't fit enough polonium in a hot dog.
posted by cmfletcher at 11:28 AM on August 23, 2023 [2 favorites]

captainrenault.gif
posted by humuhumu at 11:28 AM on August 23, 2023 [18 favorites]

I have to say, I thought a guy with *his own private army* would be harder to kill.
posted by Canageek at 11:28 AM on August 23, 2023 [24 favorites]

I'm going to need to see a corpse before I believe anything.

Providing the corpse won't be an issue, but finding some plane wreckage to put it in might be.
posted by briank at 11:29 AM on August 23, 2023 [48 favorites]

I'll assume that the other 9 passengers on the plane were all his cronies, but what about the pilots and any flight attendants?

Unlike falling out of a very high window, this political hit involved collateral damage.
posted by thecjm at 11:33 AM on August 23, 2023 [12 favorites]

You think a mercenary boss flies commercial?
posted by meowzilla at 11:34 AM on August 23, 2023 [6 favorites]

did he have a window seat
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 11:35 AM on August 23, 2023 [74 favorites]

It'd take about ten weeks to get People in Places to take control of Wagner group when the head idiot dies. That' my guess. You don't just leave an organization like that without someone to tell it what to do / who to suck.
posted by seanmpuckett at 11:37 AM on August 23, 2023 [5 favorites]

In Putin's Russia, window breaks *you*.
posted by jabah at 11:47 AM on August 23, 2023 [4 favorites]

This is the ultimate example of "fuck around and find out"
posted by Keith Talent at 11:47 AM on August 23, 2023 [4 favorites]

The plane was banking to take in the view of a famous cathedral.
posted by Artw at 11:49 AM on August 23, 2023 [16 favorites]

AFAIK Wagner group was mostly removed from Ukraine to Belarus and various African countries after the weird coup attempt. So I don't think there will be a major impact on what happens there.

I'm sure the various oligarchs and generals are feeling a little more nervous now that they have to avoid windows, tea and now planes.
posted by being_quiet at 11:52 AM on August 23, 2023 [5 favorites]

as mentioned in TFA, the private jet that was shot down was owned by Prigozhin. Rumors say that a few other senior commanders in Wagner were onboard, so sounds like a decapitation strike for what's left of the Wagner leadership while many of the troops have been incorporated into the rest of the Russian army.
posted by bl1nk at 11:54 AM on August 23, 2023 [18 favorites]

You think a mercenary boss flies commercial?

No, but I also don't think he's flying solo in whatever is the Russian version of a Cessna. The reports I saw said all 10 on board died.
posted by thecjm at 11:54 AM on August 23, 2023 [1 favorite]

From the Wall Street Journal:

Video footage posted by onlookers showed what looked like the trail of a missile and the plane falling from the sky with one wing missing.
Russian aviation officials cited by Tass didn’t provide a reason for Wednesday’s plane crash, while some Russian lawmakers said it could have been caused by a bomb planted on board

posted by cardboard at 11:56 AM on August 23, 2023 [5 favorites]

I'm not going to weep for people who decided to work for a murderous warlord.
posted by tavella at 11:57 AM on August 23, 2023 [11 favorites]

On BBC Worldservice’s Russian-language liveblog they have footage of the crashed plane and what looks like the same plane plummeting from the sky.
posted by Kattullus at 11:59 AM on August 23, 2023 [1 favorite]

Assuming he was actually killed, is it likely he left a dead man's switch of kompromat to be made public?
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 12:00 PM on August 23, 2023 [6 favorites]

It's remarkable Prigozhin was in Russia at all. St. Petersburg to Moscow is just a 90 minute flight, but all in Russia. Prigozhin had visited Russia a few times since his failed coup, including meeting with Putin. The relationship must have been much more complicated than it looked for him to think it was worth trying to visit Moscow.

Also relevant: Prigozhin appears in first video since mutiny, says Wagner making Africa ‘more free'. That was just yesterday.

The Wikipedia article for the crash is already useful. I wouldn't trust any assertion of fact there as the article keeps getting edited, but they link to other sources. This is the reported plane track for RA-02795; last position was at 28,000 feet. The reports I've read are 7 passengers and 3 crew. The plane is said to be an Embraer Legacy 600, a small business jet that can hold ~15 people in private plane comfort. It requires 2 crew to operate, but having a third doesn't seem unusual.

(Metafilter does live breaking news very poorly. My apologies for contributing to that, but maybe the links are useful.)
posted by Nelson at 12:00 PM on August 23, 2023 [29 favorites]

I'm sure the various oligarchs and generals are feeling a little more nervous now that they have to avoid windows, tea and now planes.

Don't forget their own underwear.
posted by ourobouros at 12:01 PM on August 23, 2023 [1 favorite]

it seems he dared tango with piranhas ... one in particular.
posted by philip-random at 12:04 PM on August 23, 2023

And the tango is full of tiny, nuanced movements, not easy to perform when in water.

Wait, what were we talking about?
posted by hippybear at 12:06 PM on August 23, 2023 [6 favorites]

Deplanestration.

The only way he survived the mutiny was with Putin's protection. So who did it? FSB, Shoigu, Gerasimov? And did they have a green light? More delicious infighting can only favour Ukraine.

He was no battlefield genius, he was just cruel. He had no mercy for anyone including his own soldiers. In the fascist mindset cruelty is strength, but he was no strongman. When the odds were all or nothing, he chose nothing. Now he is nothing.
posted by adept256 at 12:09 PM on August 23, 2023 [27 favorites]

This is a lesson for all you future rebels. Never go halfway on a coup against an authoritarian leader. Gotta go all the way man.
posted by dis_integration at 12:12 PM on August 23, 2023 [15 favorites]

as they say, no half measures!
posted by I-Write-Essays at 12:18 PM on August 23, 2023 [5 favorites]

This is a lesson for all you future rebels. Never go halfway on a coup against an authoritarian leader. Gotta go all the way man.

Everyone knew this at the time. He knew it. He was a dead man walking with Putin picking his moment.
posted by a robot made out of meat at 12:18 PM on August 23, 2023 [14 favorites]

This is the kind of action you expect in a dictatorship. Difference of opinion will result in a loss of job but an outright coup will get you a guaranteed execution. Someone like Prigozhin should have known better than to stay anywhere near Putin.
posted by tommasz at 12:19 PM on August 23, 2023

During the mutiny, Wagner shot down several Russian aircraft (an inconvenient fact that was blatantly ignored in the aftermath). There are probably quite a few people in the Russian air force and other parts of the regular military who took that kinda personal. Being shot down by air defense is hardly a surprising turn of events, and has a lot of deniability for the higher levels of the chain of command just because there are enough pissed off people farther down the chain of command who might have done it.

I look forward to the thorough and transparent investigation that uncovers the truth. *cough*
posted by allegedly at 12:21 PM on August 23, 2023 [22 favorites]

Now, it's not really my field, but the timing of this seems weird considering the BRICS summit is happening and Russia is trying to rally folks to its side. Seems like you'd want to put off the assassinations until after that little PR effort.
posted by Zargon X at 12:22 PM on August 23, 2023 [3 favorites]

I am so astonished he would take this chance that I have to wonder if it's him faking his own death.
posted by corb at 12:22 PM on August 23, 2023 [13 favorites]

It requires 2 crew to operate, but having a third doesn't seem unusual.

I would hazard a guess the three crew were a pilot, a co-pilot, and a steward to look after the passengers. Only two operating the aircraft, but stewards are crew too. And potentially all Wagner employees if it was indeed Priozhin's plane.
posted by Clever User Name at 12:23 PM on August 23, 2023 [4 favorites]

The BBC is being very cautious, saying only that Prigozhin's name was on the passenger list, and that it's not known if he's among the 8 bodies reported by Russian news outlets to have been recovered so far. BBC also notes reports of a 2nd plane that flew from St Petersburg to Moscow.
posted by mediareport at 12:26 PM on August 23, 2023 [17 favorites]

"Will someone rid me of this turbulent caterer/mercenary group owner?"
posted by doctornemo at 12:28 PM on August 23, 2023 [31 favorites]

I am so astonished he would take this chance that I have to wonder if it's him faking his own death.

I'm not disputing the idea that it's at least somewhat plausible that he might want to, or even try to, fake his own death, but... regarding the astonishment that he would take this chance: He has been occasionally doing various things that have seemed to me to be brazenly unwise pretty much since the end of the coup.
posted by Flunkie at 12:31 PM on August 23, 2023 [7 favorites]

Russian air defense operators mistook his aircraft for a Malaysian commercial aircraft.
posted by interogative mood at 12:39 PM on August 23, 2023 [48 favorites]

I guess it's worth noting that I don't see ANY high level accountable news agencies saying Prigozhin is dead. Even Fox News is saying he was listed as a passenger, not reporting his death.

Nobody trusts anything coming out of Russia these days.
posted by hippybear at 12:42 PM on August 23, 2023 [9 favorites]

Anyone presuming Putin did this has to explain why Putin kept him alive for ten weeks. I'm looking at Shoigu. He either lobbied for permission to do this or he did it on his own. If the former, what changed for Putin to withdraw protection? If the latter, Shoigu is on the outside. There are rumours the FSB want him and Gerasimov gone because of the shitshow in Ukraine. His plan didn't work, it's a quagmire, they're on the defensive and losing ground. Prigozhin constantly pointed this out, it's all Shoigu's fault. He was very careful not to criticize Putin.

And Shoigu happens to have SAMs. So it's Prigozhout.
posted by adept256 at 12:42 PM on August 23, 2023 [2 favorites]

Yeah, I'm definitely going to need more sources than Russian officials saying his name was on the passenger list.
posted by infinitywaltz at 12:43 PM on August 23, 2023 [2 favorites]

There was supposedly a second Wagner flight that turned back to Moscow. I've only seen unverified twexts, though.
posted by snuffleupagus at 12:44 PM on August 23, 2023 [1 favorite]

Nobody trusts anything coming out of Russia these days.

I could have missed it, but I don't think even Russian state media is saying much of anything beyond "he was listed as being a passenger" at this point.
posted by Flunkie at 12:45 PM on August 23, 2023

One peculiar thing about Russia that I can't quite wrap my head around ....

A mercenary group invades the country, shoots down military aircraft along the way. Later on, the airplane of that group's leader gets shot down or blown up. He may have been assassinated.

Military facilities and factories are mysteriously set on fire all the time.

Recruitment centers are attacked with Molotov cocktails regularly.

The capital region gets bombarded by a neighboring country almost daily.

People are thrown out of windows, poisoned.
Car bombs blow off, people are assassinated.

On other occasions, two completely different militant groups that are not Wagner invade the country.

And yet,

unlike other countries, Russia remains simply... Russia. It's not "the war-torn country" or "embroiled by civil war Russia" and so on.

It's like what I'm seeing and reading doesn't match up with what's happening; or I'm the crazy one.
posted by UN at 12:45 PM on August 23, 2023 [27 favorites]

What a morning! India lands on the moon. Putin looses his voice. Prigzhin falls from the sky. Xi doesn't show for his BRICS speech. Giuliani surrenders in Georgia. Trump skips GOP debates. Hurricane hits LA. Lahaina razed to the ground by fire. AI reads a stroke patient's brainwaves and lets her talk again. OK, not all of that was this morning. But still, it's a bit too much.
posted by brambleboy at 12:45 PM on August 23, 2023 [44 favorites]

The uncertainty that leads news agencies to be cautious and citing the "passenger list" is even greater in this situation because there were (reportedly) two Wagner private jets in the air, and the other one has landed safely. There is no confirmation of who was on which jet.

Wagner channels are starting to communicate that both Prigozhin and Utkin were on the downed jet. But this is far from solid confirmation.
posted by allegedly at 12:47 PM on August 23, 2023

unlike other countries, Russia remains simply... Russia. It's not "the war-torn country" or "embroiled by civil war Russia" and so on.

frog-boiling over a couple decades, the curve is now bending more rapidly; we'll see if there's a reaction before what's left of civil society is cooked.
posted by snuffleupagus at 12:53 PM on August 23, 2023 [2 favorites]

unlike other countries, Russia remains simply... Russia. It's not "the war-torn country" or "embroiled by civil war Russia" and so on.

There aren't any popular uprisings of mobs, or anything like that; no anti-government rebels suddenly showing up in some remote village to slaughter everyone; no internecine outright military action beyond this one weird, short-lived, and aborted one.
posted by Flunkie at 12:54 PM on August 23, 2023 [3 favorites]

This is the kind of action you expect in a dictatorship.

It couldn't happen here. Just ask senators John Heinz and Mel Carnahan.
posted by hypnogogue at 12:57 PM on August 23, 2023 [5 favorites]

Russia isn't war-torn. Ukraine is war-torn. There is no war in Russia.

Saying there is a war in Russia seems to accede to the implications that illegally annexed portions of Ukraine are a part of Russia.

I understand what you're saying, but maybe you don't understand what you're _saying_.
posted by hippybear at 12:57 PM on August 23, 2023 [9 favorites]

+1 for Moonraker post title
posted by chavenet at 12:58 PM on August 23, 2023 [15 favorites]

unlike other countries, Russia remains simply... Russia

More than 420 mass shootings in the US so far in 2023. America remains simply... America.
posted by SPrintF at 1:03 PM on August 23, 2023 [45 favorites]

I've been following a Ballingcat analyst, Aric Toler, for info on this story. (Twitter link.)

But regardless of the how and why, I'm baffled by Prigozhin's own actions. Imagine surviving your own failed coup against Putin and then travelling back to Russia. Absolutely mental.
posted by ZaphodB at 1:03 PM on August 23, 2023 [9 favorites]

Also absolutely metal.

Presuming he boarded the plane voluntarily (or, for that matter, alive), which might not be the case. Though, someone has to fly it, so, there would have to be some double-dealing there too.

If the passenger list is to be trusted, this also took out Utkin — the guy with the SS collar tats. Rest in piss.
posted by snuffleupagus at 1:05 PM on August 23, 2023 [4 favorites]

Assuming he was actually killed, is it likely he left a dead man's switch of kompromat to be made public?

A guy dumb enough to attempt a coup, live to change his mind, and then fly around in his easily identifiable private jet.... I wouldn't hold my breath. I'm at a loss for any notable instance of someone leaving a dead man's switch, even Epistein didn't have one.
posted by Dark Messiah at 1:08 PM on August 23, 2023 [9 favorites]

I'm not quite understanding people's shock that he was traveling in Russia. Do you think Putin couldn't have gotten him in Belarus if he had wanted to?
posted by gwint at 1:09 PM on August 23, 2023 [1 favorite]

No, but why make it so easy?
posted by Dark Messiah at 1:09 PM on August 23, 2023 [7 favorites]

Anyone presuming Putin did this has to explain why Putin kept him alive for ten weeks.

An analyst on tv suggested the revolt was chaotic and a few weeks to identify who was with Prigozhin would be a smart plan. Another noted that Putin loves anniversaries and this was 2 months to the day of the uprising.

The tail number matched one for a plane that Prigozhin owned (for some approximation of owned)
posted by sammyo at 1:15 PM on August 23, 2023 [2 favorites]

Saying there is a war in Russia seems to accede to the implications that illegally annexed portions of Ukraine are a part of Russia.

In case I didn't make my point super clear: all the things I mentioned are in Russia, not occupied-by-Russia Ukraine.

[No need to insult each other's intelligence? I do know that I don't know what I'm saying, thanks.]
posted by UN at 1:17 PM on August 23, 2023 [10 favorites]

Oh no!

Anyway...
posted by charred husk at 1:17 PM on August 23, 2023 [6 favorites]

If Putin wanted to control, obfuscate and cloud the issue of Prigozhin being either dead or alive, shooting down a plane he's supposedly on over Moscow and being in control of the crash site and bodies would be a good way to do that.

And there are any number of reasons why either Putin or Prigozhin to fake his death. I mean Putin could want him even worse off than dead and disappeared somewhere not very nice.

Or maybe it was a bargain - you disappear to a dacha, or stick around for "consulting" and work from home where we can keep an eye on you.

I would also not put it past Putin and current state of Russia to shoot him down in Moscow in particular as a show of force, a feint, and even try to pin it on Ukraine.

This is absolutely in the realm of a dictator that poisons people and helps them out of windows. It might cause fear and a little outrage in the proles but it sends a totally clear mob boss stye message to everyone else, and could easily be pinned on Ukraine as bonus state propaganda even if the rest of the world doesn't believe it.

And with the way things have been going it could also be Ukraine, perhaps they had access to a disaffected soldier or officer in control of AA defenses.

But this stinks of Putin.
posted by loquacious at 1:18 PM on August 23, 2023 [4 favorites]

Was the plane pushed out the window of a tall building? sorry, came in late with yet another window reference.
posted by theora55 at 1:19 PM on August 23, 2023 [2 favorites]

It couldn't happen here. Just ask senators John Heinz and Mel Carnahan

That's a pretty wild association to make. Both deaths were aviation accidents with clear explanations.
posted by Nelson at 1:22 PM on August 23, 2023 [21 favorites]

Maybe he went off to help JFK Jr. plan his comeback.
posted by hippybear at 1:24 PM on August 23, 2023 [4 favorites]

From FT comments:

It wasn’t a plane crash, it was a special landing operation.
posted by the duck by the oboe at 1:25 PM on August 23, 2023 [33 favorites]

. for the Death Star contractors

Any contractor working on that Death Star knew the risks involved.
posted by LooseFilter at 1:33 PM on August 23, 2023 [9 favorites]

But still, it's a bit too much.

Welcome to the latest New Normal.
posted by gtrwolf at 1:36 PM on August 23, 2023 [1 favorite]

I'm not ruling out a faked death but there would be much, much easier ways of faking it. But as with all things in Russia these days, a bit of wait-and-see seems appropriate.

If he and his subaltern did indeed perish, it would make the world a slightly better place.
posted by Dip Flash at 1:39 PM on August 23, 2023 [2 favorites]

did he have a window seat

On a plane of that size they’re all window seats.

Apparently at least 4 of the other passengers were Wagner brass too.
posted by rodlymight at 1:43 PM on August 23, 2023 [1 favorite]

Meanwhile, Surovikin has apparently been removed from his post as head of aerospace forces.

Gotta say, looks like Putin is trying to clean house a bit.
posted by aramaic at 1:51 PM on August 23, 2023 [3 favorites]

Real shame if important components of Wagner’s operation (payment methods, bank account access and signing authority, contacts etc) all died with those on the plane. Real shame.

Got to wonder (outside Ukraine) if this may impact the coup in Niger where Wagner seemed to be landing and expanding.
posted by inflatablekiwi at 1:54 PM on August 23, 2023 [1 favorite]

Then there was the Russian pilot who killed his own crew.

We don't know what happened to the crew; there are conflicting vaguely sourced reports.
posted by mediareport at 1:56 PM on August 23, 2023

oh, the Anniversary of the Battle of Kursk.



timing
posted by clavdivs at 2:18 PM on August 23, 2023 [2 favorites]

aviation accidents with clear explanations

It's still hard to not go with my gut and feelthink that Ashcroft/W./Rove/whoever-pulls-the-strings had something to do with the accident in Missouri (yet still hilariously lost to a dead man).

I grant there is no smoking gun proof of any kind, and Republicans then as now were of course above reproach in all things.

/derail
posted by riverlife at 2:22 PM on August 23, 2023

oh, the Anniversary of the Battle of Kursk.

Is there something that relates this battle to this plane crash in a way beyond "Russian military" (and even that being presumed with respect to the crash at this point)? More so than any other Russian WWII battle? Because if we're just going with "anniversary as an explanation", I'd think "two month anniversary of the coup" would be a more plausible one.
posted by Flunkie at 2:26 PM on August 23, 2023 [1 favorite]

If the Russian authorities state he was on board, and thus, dead, we know what it means. On the other hand, for those who are not Russian, it doesn't automatically mean he's still alive. The best method is maybe to wait for his next vid.
posted by nicolin at 2:36 PM on August 23, 2023

Was he vaccinated?!?
posted by dobbs at 3:23 PM on August 23, 2023 [12 favorites]

There is film of the plane dropping to the ground on the NY Times front page.
posted by freakazoid at 3:29 PM on August 23, 2023

He may also have left behind a nice priggy-bank for Putin to raid? I wonder if that was also a factor.

I’m slightly sorry that we won’t get more of his rants: I found his regular complaints and dire predictions about Russia’s prospects to be quite comforting. And the idea that powerful Russians might be fighting Putin’s inner circle was vastly preferable to making more Ukrainians suffer for the same outcome.
posted by pulposus at 3:33 PM on August 23, 2023 [1 favorite]

anniversary as an explanation"

'Putin attended concert as news broke of Prigozhin’s possible death: reports'
posted by clavdivs at 3:37 PM on August 23, 2023 [2 favorites]

I should follow up my comment above by saying that whatever small satisfaction I might have gotten out of Prighozin’s rants obviously pales in comparison to the massive benefit to the world from him (and ideally Wagner) imploding. Maybe they will finally get out of Africa? We can dream.
posted by pulposus at 3:41 PM on August 23, 2023 [2 favorites]

I'm... not denying that it's the anniversary of that battle? Nor that Putin existed, and was therefore doing something, while the crash was happening?
posted by Flunkie at 3:47 PM on August 23, 2023 [1 favorite]

It's still hard to not go with my gut and feelthink that Ashcroft/W./Rove/whoever-pulls-the-strings had something to do with the accident in Missouri (yet still hilariously lost to a dead man).

You can read the NTSB report and put that feeling to rest. (Yes, there was an equipment failure. However, the belief is that the cause was the pilot (Carnahan's son) became disoriented as a result of needing to repeatedly turn his head to look at the second attitude indicator.)
posted by hoyland at 3:57 PM on August 23, 2023 [8 favorites]

Even if this was an accident, every military/political leader in Russia is going to assume it was Putin, and that they're at risk so long as he's in power.

Question is what impacts that has going forwards.
posted by MattWPBS at 4:04 PM on August 23, 2023 [3 favorites]

Maybe they will finally get out of Africa?

There's at least one report that over a thousand of the 5800 or so Wagner soldiers in Belarus recently left because of the reduction in pay they took after the mutiny, and "have signed contracts to fight in African nations or left for vacation with no intention of returning."

Africa is still a destination for them, apparently.
posted by mediareport at 4:33 PM on August 23, 2023

Just hit the wing for maximum terror on the way down.
posted by bluesky43 at 4:39 PM on August 23, 2023 [1 favorite]

On a plane of that size they’re all window seats.

so they were all asking for it is what you're saying
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 4:44 PM on August 23, 2023 [3 favorites]

[My feelings may never agree (did someone cause the instrument failure?) but facts is facts and you Showed Me hoyland, thanks for the rerail to reality. :) I'll just continue strongly disliking the above for their many well-documented political and war crimes.]
posted by riverlife at 4:47 PM on August 23, 2023 [1 favorite]

Much as I loathe Putin, I have to admit this shows he knows how to deal with coup plotters.
posted by ocschwar at 5:25 PM on August 23, 2023

There seems to be pretty overwhelming video evidence that the plane was shot down by Russian air defense. Maybe it was confusion as air traffic into Moscow was halted earlier in the day because of a Ukrainian drone attack.
posted by interogative mood at 5:49 PM on August 23, 2023

Much as I loathe Putin, I have to admit this shows he knows how to deal with coup plotters.

Coup plotters? This is Putin's only response to anything. This is what he does to people who get his coffee order wrong.
posted by His thoughts were red thoughts at 6:03 PM on August 23, 2023 [24 favorites]

It looks like we're making this the new Ukraine war post since the old one is closing tomorrow.
posted by hippybear at 6:51 PM on August 23, 2023 [1 favorite]

Hey, look at the calendar. It's Ukrainian Independence Day!

Happy birthday Ukraine! I see the celebrations have begun already.
posted by adept256 at 6:52 PM on August 23, 2023 [11 favorites]

Wonder what happens to the remaining Wagners in Belarus....
posted by UN at 6:58 PM on August 23, 2023

and was therefore doing something, while the crash was happening?

It's called plausible Ididitability.
posted by clavdivs at 6:59 PM on August 23, 2023 [5 favorites]

Wonder what happens to the remaining Wagners in Belarus....

I'm sure a few thousand heavily armed war criminals and former convicts who just realized they aren't getting paid won't cause any problems.
posted by adept256 at 7:03 PM on August 23, 2023 [13 favorites]

.

For the airplane.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 7:10 PM on August 23, 2023 [7 favorites]

It seems somewhat likely to me that they troops will keep getting paid, it's just who controls the assets and contracts that funds that pay that will change. Then probably most Wagner troops are happy to be loyal to whoever as long as the checks keep clearing.

I could also see a bit of fracturing where the Wagner dinks operating in Africa get a bit of independence in some mutually beneficial way. Putin's reach might not extend far into Africa except through Wagner so some one nominally in charge there has a bit of leverage in a warlord kind of way.

I still wouldn't be surprised if Prigozhin turns up alive in a month or so either.
posted by VTX at 7:30 PM on August 23, 2023 [1 favorite]

I assume Prigozhin was surprised in the moment the SAM hit his plane but, assuming he survived the blast, I wonder if he was surprised all the way down, or at some point thought "Yeah, I saw this coming".
posted by Reverend John at 7:40 PM on August 23, 2023 [2 favorites]

A shame that American crime families lost most of their juice due to RICO.

If you let them take over all of Trumps holdings, they'd wax Putin for us in short order, esp if they got to brag about it to insider journalists five years later.

Imagine how happy Gotti would be, smiling for the cameras, that great smile as he denied knowing anything about it.

Those guys loved America, until RICO busted their chops.
posted by dancestoblue at 7:43 PM on August 23, 2023 [4 favorites]

"So it goes."
posted by not_on_display at 7:45 PM on August 23, 2023 [8 favorites]

daily affirmation
posted by sebastienbailard at 7:53 PM on August 23, 2023 [3 favorites]

More than 420 mass shootings in the US so far in 2023. America remains simply... America.

Next thread on America's national gun violence epidemic, I'll make sure to drop a note about that time a Russian warlord was blown to pieces in his corporate jet. Because it's relevant.
posted by UN at 8:07 PM on August 23, 2023 [23 favorites]

A shame that American crime families lost most of their juice due to RICO ... they'd wax Putin for us in short order
posted by Reverend John at 8:17 PM on August 23, 2023 [1 favorite]

"These cops and lawyers wouldn't dare cross any of you... I mean, what happened? Your balls drop off?"
posted by Windopaene at 8:41 PM on August 23, 2023 [1 favorite]

If you let them take over all of Trumps holdings, they'd wax Putin for us in short order, esp if they got to brag about it to insider journalists five years later.

That worked out real well with Castro, eh?
posted by snuffleupagus at 9:26 PM on August 23, 2023 [13 favorites]

Rudy looking like Danny Devito's Oswald Cobblepot, an excellent capstone photo for history.
posted by riverlife at 11:00 PM on August 23, 2023

My new favorite hobby is coming up with various believable reasons that these two were arrested
posted by Artw at 11:14 PM on August 23, 2023 [14 favorites]

Next thread on America's national gun violence epidemic, I'll make sure to drop a note about that time a Russian warlord was blown to pieces in his corporate jet. Because it's relevant.

It was relevant in reply to your question, as an illustrative example of how something that would and should be absolutely remarkable just becomes normalised when it is endemic. Corruption and window flu in Russian's case.

If someone asks why we don't call it "gun-crime ridden America" then it would be relevant to mention Russia's analogous situation with respect to Russian warlords' jets blowing up.
posted by Dysk at 1:26 AM on August 24, 2023 [14 favorites]

I was at Mass this morning (long story) and a newly arrived Ukrainian priest was concelebrating in an intention "known to God", previously unannounced and usually in this parish the morning weekday Mass is in one intention only. Sure looked like that would be "thank you God for ridding us of this mass muderer".
posted by I claim sanctuary at 2:10 AM on August 24, 2023 [8 favorites]

One peculiar thing about Russia that I can't quite wrap my head around ....
Military facilities and factories are mysteriously set on fire all the time.
Recruitment centers are attacked with Molotov cocktails regularly.
People are thrown out of windows, poisoned.
Car bombs blow off, people are assassinated.
And yet,unlike other countries,

Frank Olson, Robert Fassnacht and the Weather Underground would like to have a word.
posted by rough ashlar at 2:18 AM on August 24, 2023 [2 favorites]

If someone asks why we don't call it "gun-crime ridden America"

Those are exactly the types of descriptions used (America’s gun problem, gun crisis, gun epidemic) and the fact that it’s brought up here is exactly the point. It’s acknowledged. But, on the other hand, in Russia there’s an elephant in the room that’s not being acknowledged for what it is — or what it’s turning into. Or rather, that is my question. The scale of chaos has taken on a new dimension, perhaps.

Frank Olson, Robert Fassnacht and the Weather Underground would like to have a word.

We can do what-about-that-thing-in-America all day. Did you know there was a Civil War in the United States?
posted by UN at 2:23 AM on August 24, 2023 [11 favorites]

Did you know there was a Civil War in the United States?

Yea, learned about that along with how Russia leaned on European powers to stay out of that war otherwise those powers wanting cotton were worried about getting cotton had plans to enter the war.

Crying what-about-ism is a non defense to the list being things that happen with extra-legal events wanting to be protected by those in power along with populations wanting to resist a war. Sadly white rose members can't show up here to remind people of such. Making a list like that and claiming it is somehow unique to Russia should get pushback VS being a cast member of Team America: World Police.

Another soviet fun fact: back in the 1950's and 60's if you were saying that Blacks got shitty treatment in the us of A you were a commie sympathizer.
posted by rough ashlar at 2:53 AM on August 24, 2023 [2 favorites]

sammyo: Another noted that Putin loves anniversaries and this was 2 months to the day of the uprising.

And the day of the signing of the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact.
posted by Stoneshop at 2:58 AM on August 24, 2023 [2 favorites]

The Soviet Union developed software bots in the 1980’s that are still running in a bunker in Vladivostok. They are advanced enough to log into and comment on modern websites, but lack the floppy disk storage to store more than a couple of new relevant arguments. The basic machine model has only been trained to argue against American citizens using news clippings from the 1960’s. They are unaware that the Soviet Union no longer exists and that the current dictator is not a communist, but they will continue to defend the Empire — until someone pulls the plug.
posted by UN at 3:37 AM on August 24, 2023 [13 favorites]

UN: We can do what-about-that-thing-in-America all day.

But please let's not.
posted by Too-Ticky at 3:57 AM on August 24, 2023 [7 favorites]

Mod note: Comment removed. Let's avoid wishing ill upon others, even the thoroughly unlikable
posted by Brandon Blatcher (staff) at 4:37 AM on August 24, 2023

https://twitter.com/maria_drutska/status/1694631789082345820

Maria Drutska 🇺🇦@maria_drutska
THE GUR AIRBORNE FORCES LANDED IN CRIMEA

GUR units have today made a landing in Crimea as part of a special operation on the Cape Tarkhankut, — confirmed GUR representative Yusov.

According to him, all tasks within the special operation were accomplished. Notably, this is the very cape where the S-400 was destroyed yesterday.

Russians are already complaining that “nobody was destroyed and the Ukrainian saboteurs left without losses.”

Media reported that since 5 in the morning, near the settlement of Mayak on the Cape Tarkhankut, explosions could be heard. In the village of Mayak is the base of the 3rd Radio Technical Regiment. Also on the Tarkhankut peninsula is the radar node RLK “Sky-M” and RLS “Kasta-2E2.”

Russians are writing about 10 Ukrainian saboteurs who arrived in boats and opened fire.

🔹🔸There are no losses among the GUR personnel, but there are losses among the enemy’s personnel, as well as its forces and means. Meanwhile, the special operation continues (!), — Yusov

posted by sebastienbailard at 4:48 AM on August 24, 2023 [10 favorites]

I was at Mass this morning (long story)

[...]

posted by I claim sanctuary

Well that tells a story
posted by jason_steakums at 5:10 AM on August 24, 2023 [9 favorites]

Finnish media seems to have switched from the conditional about whether Prigozhin died, to speaking as if they’ve had it confirmed. I can’t find anything about a confirmation on Finnish news sites, but my Finnish is still rudimentary so it might just be a misunderstanding on my part.

Is it the case that they’ve just gotten used to the idea and are now certain he’s dead, or has there been some further confirmation? I can’t find anything on English-language news sites.
posted by Kattullus at 5:12 AM on August 24, 2023

Maybe that Wagner has also stated that Prigozhin was on the plane?
posted by Not A Thing at 5:23 AM on August 24, 2023 [1 favorite]

Apparently Russian government sources are saying Prigozhin is dead, according to CBC radio As It Happened yesterday evening, though they didn’t want to go so far as to state that with any certainty yet themselves. They also provided some helpful context that Prigozhin had been reported dead in a different plane crash where he was listed as a passenger some years ago, but turned out not to be dead then, and contributing to some of the current hesitancy by media.
posted by eviemath at 5:26 AM on August 24, 2023 [2 favorites]

Those are exactly the types of descriptions used (America’s gun problem, gun crisis, gun epidemic) and the fact that it’s brought up here is exactly the point.

From outside the US, that's just false on our media. Everyone's media treats the country they're in differently to everywhere else. There is nothing of that kind of emotive language in the media I come across in the UK. They'll note that guns are legal, or that this is the nth shooting this year. But they no more say "today in gun crime capital USA" than they do "today in corrupt oligarchy Russia". And they sure do acknowledge that the window flu seems to be catching this year, in articles about another Russian catching window flu. Exactly like they do with America's mass shooting epidemic - mention it when under discussion, but not otherwise.
posted by Dysk at 5:26 AM on August 24, 2023 [4 favorites]

I know this veers heavily into conspiracy theory territory, but what the hell...It’s Russia.

All through this event, I’ve been puzzled by the pics of the crash site (like this one, for instance) and they all strike me as looking more like someone dumped a flatbed full of airplane parts in a tight pile on the ground, poured some gas on the mound, and lit it on fire. Wouldn’t parts be more scattered about than that? It just doesn’t look right to me. And, given my complete lack of experience investigating aircraft crashes, I’m somewhat suspicious.
posted by Thorzdad at 6:09 AM on August 24, 2023 [1 favorite]

In this particular case the plane essentially fell straight down. A big pile of burning debris is likely what you'd get.
posted by Mitheral at 6:23 AM on August 24, 2023 [5 favorites]

One can assume that the airplane parts were still largely in the shape of an airplane when it hit the ground and if there weren't any high explosives rigged it wouldn't throw a lot of shrapnel when it hit, it would just go thunk and the fuel would just splatter and catch on fire from electrical sparks, so, yeah, it would look a lot like someone threw a bunch of airplane parts on the ground and lit it on fire. Which is what happened. Wow I'm using a lot of words.
posted by seanmpuckett at 6:23 AM on August 24, 2023 [2 favorites]

Wouldn’t parts be more scattered about than that? It just doesn’t look right to me. And, given my complete lack of experience investigating aircraft crashes, I’m somewhat suspicious.

This is fairly common when an airplane lawn-darts into the ground with little lateral motion. The size of the debris field usually informs a large part of the investigation in accidents where there is no video of the crash. The size, spread and direction of the debris can tell you a lot about the airplane's attitude and speed at the time of impact. In this case, straight down.
posted by Thistledown at 6:35 AM on August 24, 2023 [5 favorites]

Please raise your hand if you are an expert on airplane crash sites. Would be helpful if you share your credentials and experience. Perhaps you work for the NTSB?
posted by Nelson at 6:37 AM on August 24, 2023 [3 favorites]

There's a part of me that feels sorry for the flight crew. I don't know if they are innocent bystanders here or part of Wagner's machinery (corporate pilots are frequently contractors not affiliated with the owner of the airplane) but either way, they probably had time to realize what had happened. Terrible way to go.
posted by Thistledown at 6:40 AM on August 24, 2023 [4 favorites]

Please raise your hand if you are an expert on airplane crash sites. Would be helpful if you share your credentials and experience. Perhaps you work for the NTSB?
posted by Nelson at 9:37 AM on August 24 [−] [!]

Not a crash investigator. Am an airline pilot, have had fairly extensive training on crashes, analysis, especially around human factors. Have worked for/with NTSB investigators for years.
posted by Thistledown at 6:42 AM on August 24, 2023 [56 favorites]

Plus, it's perfectly reasonable to answer speculation with slightly-better-reasoned speculation.
posted by sagc at 6:49 AM on August 24, 2023 [13 favorites]

Prighozin: From top dog to hot dog.
posted by jadepearl at 6:49 AM on August 24, 2023

> And, given my complete lack of experience investigating aircraft crashes, I’m somewhat suspicious.

I would entertain the "Prigo glided to freedom on the missing wing" theory, or the "He's still up there, like D.B. Cooper" theory, if it weren't for all the war crimes and American political interference and so forth.
posted by sebastienbailard at 7:21 AM on August 24, 2023 [2 favorites]

Maybe we need one of those counters you see at construction job sites indicating number of days since last accident, only this one counts number of days Prigozhin has been dead. You know, just because…
posted by Insert Clever Name Here at 7:28 AM on August 24, 2023 [1 favorite]

Don't forget that Prigozhin is a master of disguise. He could stay hidden indefinitely, if he wanted.
posted by 1970s Antihero at 7:31 AM on August 24, 2023 [2 favorites]

I can't be the only one surprised it took this long, right?

America is pretty unusual in that we're having a trial for people who plotted a coup, in general they tend to just wind up dead.

And presumably Putin is feeling the need to assert himself as a "strongman" since he's losing in Ukrain AND the Russian lunar lander just crashed.

Maybe Putin was waiting to kill Prigo until he could milk the most PR out of it?
posted by sotonohito at 7:32 AM on August 24, 2023 [1 favorite]

Please raise your hand if you are an expert on airplane crash sites. Would be helpful if you share your credentials and experience.

Two years ago I binged an entire season of Air Disasters. AMA
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 7:34 AM on August 24, 2023 [16 favorites]

> Please raise your hand if you are an expert on airplane crash sites. Would be helpful if you share your credentials and experience.

https://www.reddit.com/r/NonCredibleDefense/comments/15zx2lo/does_anyone_have_a_landing_in_crimea_on_their/

u/SirLagg_alot 1h:

My headcanon is that the AA is programmed to become semi sentient in case of a nearby civilian jet.

The whole pringles thing WAS a mistake. Because their AA can only hit civilian aircraft.

On a related note, the Dutch are gifting Ukraine with F16s in part due to the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17.
posted by sebastienbailard at 7:41 AM on August 24, 2023 [4 favorites]

Mod note: Comment and response removed. Please don't post jokey links about Prigozhin being confirmed dead when there is, at least at this time, no official confirmation.
posted by Brandon Blatcher (staff) at 7:59 AM on August 24, 2023 [4 favorites]

This is fairly common when an airplane lawn-darts into the ground with little lateral motion.

The videos I've seen all look to me like it's chaotically tumbling, not lawn-darting.

To be clear: (1) I'm certainly not raising my hand at the "raise your hand if" question, and (2) I don't mean this to imply anything about your conclusion. Just pointing out that to my untrained eye, it looked very unlike a lawn dart.
posted by Flunkie at 8:13 AM on August 24, 2023

The videos I've seen all look to me like it's chaotically tumbling, not lawn-darting.

To be clear: (1) I'm certainly not raising my hand at the "raise your hand if" question, and (2) I don't mean this to imply anything about your conclusion. Just pointing out that to my untrained eye, it looked very unlike a lawn dart.
posted by Flunkie at 11:13 AM on August 24 [+] [!]

You're right.

There's still very little lateral motion. End result is same.
posted by Thistledown at 8:18 AM on August 24, 2023 [8 favorites]

Much as I loathe Putin, I have to admit this shows he knows how to deal with coup plotters.

Counterpoint [via Mastodon]:

@[e-mail]: "Listen, all I’m saying is that as justice institutions go, government actors turning themselves in to answer grand jury charges is far superior to crashing private jets.

-something I may have just said in a faculty meeting"

posted by mazola at 8:25 AM on August 24, 2023 [9 favorites]

Tumbling is compatible with a SAM hit, as seen at least a few times during this war.

Here's the video of Wagner's AN-26 shootdown from the uprising.
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:52 AM on August 24, 2023 [1 favorite]

I can't be the only one surprised it took this long, right?

Honestly wondering if the wait was intentional because it sets a tone like: you think you got away with it, you got all your money back, got the investigation dropped, got a great deal arranged by Lukashenko, have free reign to travel and go about your life just like before, and none of that matters and it will catch up to you when you least expect it and you can never let your guard down and feel comfortable. Which is a very on-brand tone to set for a monster like Putin who needs to put the fear in anyone else who might try something.
posted by jason_steakums at 9:30 AM on August 24, 2023 [12 favorites]

In hindsight it all looks very well planned out. Lead much of Wagner out to Belarus, some get shipped to Africa, some sign up for the Russian army. The rebels are weakened. Wait until things cool down and when the opportunity arises, take out the head.
posted by UN at 9:35 AM on August 24, 2023

I think it was just practical (de-escalate the situation immediately; payback later).
posted by mazola at 9:36 AM on August 24, 2023 [1 favorite]

Putin has now referred to Prigozhin in the past tense, multiple times.
posted by Flunkie at 9:40 AM on August 24, 2023 [2 favorites]

so putin has officially confirmed it: when flying the russian skies be sure to ask for an aisle seat and a parachute
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 9:47 AM on August 24, 2023 [1 favorite]

It confirms there is no such thing as a negotiated peace with Putin.
posted by cmfletcher at 9:58 AM on August 24, 2023 [14 favorites]

It confirms there is no such thing as a negotiated peace with Putin.

Which, oh boy is that a knife's edge, because it will escalate any situation in which he may be displeased into a life or death situation for the other party, and that way lies "it's him or me" considerations and people seeking protection from anyone who may be able to provide it, such as US intelligence.
posted by jason_steakums at 10:03 AM on August 24, 2023 [2 favorites]

Putin almost certainly ordered the Russian military command to shoot down Prigozhin’s plane. Elements of the Russian military, especially Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov, would be extremely unlikely to execute Prigozhin without Putin’s order. The entirety of the Russian political and security sphere likely viewed Prigozhin’s continued survival following Wagner’s rebellion as at Putin’s discretion. ISW will make further assessments based on the assumption that Putin ordered Prigozhin’s assassination unless evidence to the contrary emerges. ISW’s previous standing assessment that Putin was unlikely to kill Prigozhin for fear of angering Wagner personnel has thus been invalidated.[20]
...
The Kremlin appears to be setting conditions to deflect overt responsibility for Prigozhin’s assassination away from Putin and the Russian military. Rosaviatsiya created a special commission to investigate the technical condition of the crashed aircraft, the meteorological conditions on the flight route, and the dispatch services and ground radio equipment.[35] The Russian Investigative Committee has initiated a criminal case on the charge of violating the rules of traffic safety and operation of air transport.[36] A Kremlin-affiliated milblogger noted that the Investigative Committee may choose the “erroneous” launch of air defense systems as the main version of the event given the claimed Ukrainian drone strikes on Moscow.[37] A Russian insider source claimed that the crash will likely be framed as a terrorist act that occurred onboard, and Russian State Duma Deputy Yevgeniy Popov already echoed this narrative in the Russian information space.[38] A Wagner-affiliated channel criticized Russian state TV channels for failing to mention the crash during the evening news cycle.[39]

The whole ISW daily Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment is worth reading today to try and make sense of this Prigozhin business.
posted by mazola at 10:12 AM on August 24, 2023 [3 favorites]

still a week left in august
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 10:12 AM on August 24, 2023 [1 favorite]

Why did he get on a plane with all his bros? That's a step down from taking them on a party bus on a rainy day in the mountains but REALLY, none of them had the presence of mind to travel separately? Supposedly there were even "malfunctions" on the plane before it took off, wonder what they fixed... RIP to a trusting heart! Jesus Christ!
posted by kingdead at 10:13 AM on August 24, 2023 [1 favorite]

The Kremlin appears to be setting conditions to deflect overt responsibility for Prigozhin’s assassination away from Putin and the Russian military.

That's quite a list of denial situations. Someone on Mastodon posted an RT article suggesting the pilot had post-COVID-vaccine myocarditis and might have had a heart attack leading to the crash.

These straws, they aren't going to grasp themselves.
posted by hippybear at 10:16 AM on August 24, 2023 [1 favorite]

A heart attack so strong it blew a wing off!
posted by jason_steakums at 10:21 AM on August 24, 2023 [11 favorites]

Why did he get on a plane with all his bros?

I've been thinking this might actually be a reason why it took so long to get here: I imagine that this might have been the first time (or one of a rare number of times) that Prigozhin and Utkin didn't take the precaution of not being physically together.

(to be clear, I have no idea whether or not they ever took such a precaution at all)
posted by Flunkie at 10:50 AM on August 24, 2023 [1 favorite]

Maybe the edge of credibility, but The Daily Beast has a story: Flight Attendant on Prigozhin’s Jet Reported ‘Strange’ Repairs Before Crash

A flight attendant who was on board Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin’s private jet when it crashed Wednesday had phoned relatives to say the flight was delayed due to some “strange” repairs. ...Raspopova said the Embraer jet had been taken away for some kind of “incomprehensible” servicing or repairs ahead of the flight

posted by achrise at 10:56 AM on August 24, 2023 [5 favorites]

In more directly war-related news (from ISW):

Further tactically significant Ukrainian gains in and around Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast are widening the Ukrainian breach of Russian defensive lines in the area and threatening Russian secondary lines of defense.

(...)

Ukrainian advances have now brought Ukrainian forces within roughly two kilometers of the secondary lines of Russian defense, a relatively more continuous set of field fortifications consisting of anti-tank ditches and dragon's teeth anti-tank obstacles. The extent of minefields in the area is unclear, although areas in front of these secondary lines of defense may be less heavily mined to give Russian forces north of the lines the ability to retreat. ISW previously assessed that these secondary lines of defense may be relatively weaker than the first Russian defensive lines in the area due to a lack of uncommitted Russian forces in the area and further lateral deployments from other sectors of the front.

posted by Flunkie at 11:23 AM on August 24, 2023 [6 favorites]

This Putin quote, from the Guardian, is certainly something:

“I have known Prigozhin for a long time, since the 1990s. He made some serious mistakes in life, but he also achieved the necessary results for himself but also for the greater good when I asked him. He was a talented man, a talented businessman,” the Russian leader said, speaking about the warlord in the past tense.

It’s a weird mix of mafia boss and bumbling politician, like he’s a character in a sketch.

Interviewer: President Putin, thanks for coming in.

President Putin: It’s a great pleasure, thank you.

Interviewer: This plane that was involved in the incident in Tver Oblast this week…

President Putin: Yeah, the one the wing fell off?

Interviewer: Yeah

President Putin: Yeah, that’s not very typical, I’d like to make that point.

Interviewer: Well, how is it un-typical?

President Putin: Well there are a lot of these planes flying around the world all the time, and very seldom does anything like this happen. I just don’t want people thinking that planes aren’t safe.

Interviewer: Was this plane safe?

President Putin: Well, I was thinking more about the other ones.

Interviewer: The ones that are safe?

President Putin: Yeah, the ones the wing doesn’t fall off.

Interviewer: Well, if this wasn’t safe why did it have a leader of a private military company in it?

President Putin: I’m not saying it wasn’t safe, it’s just perhaps not quite as safe as some of the other ones.

Interviewer: Why?

President Putin: Well, some of them are built so the wing doesn’t fall off when talented businesspeople fly in it.

Interviewer: Wasn’t this built so the wing wouldn’t fall off?

President Putin: Well, obviously not.

Interviewer: Well, how do you know?

President Putin: Well, because the wing fell off, and talented businesspeople who made serious mistakes perished. It’s a bit of a giveaway. I would just like to make the point that that it’s not normal.

Interviewer: Well, what sort of standards are these planes built to?

President Putin: Oh, very rigorous aeronautical engineering standards.

Interviewer: What sort of thing?

President Putin: Well the wing’s not supposed to fall off for a start.

Interviewer: And what other things?

President Putin: Well, there are ah talented businesspeople maybe who shouldn’t make serious mistakes and then fly.

Interviewer: Which serious mistakes?

President Putin: If you need to ask, you shouldn’t get on a plane.

Interviewer: …

President Putin: …

[the original is by Bryan Dawe and John Clarke]
posted by Kattullus at 11:30 AM on August 24, 2023 [31 favorites]

Godfather: Let's just say he sleeps with the fishes.
Interviewer: Oh, interesting. What kind of fishes?
posted by paper chromatographologist at 11:46 AM on August 24, 2023 [11 favorites]

but he also achieved the necessary results for himself but also for the greater good when I asked him.

'Like yesterday, when I asked him to fly to Moscow for a meeting.'
posted by snuffleupagus at 12:16 PM on August 24, 2023 [5 favorites]

> This Putin quote, from the Guardian, is certainly something:

He mentioned denazifying Ukraine. Which the Gruniad article stenographs directly.

Meanwhile, over here in the real world, Wagner commander, Dmitry Valerievich Utkin, Putin's pet mercenary, 2016 Recipient of the Russian Order of Courage:

"
Political and racial views
According to several news outlets, Utkin was an admirer of Nazi Germany and had multiple Nazi tattoos, including Schutzstaffel (SS) insignia.[12][13][14][15][16] Utkin also reportedly called himself Wagner after German composer Richard Wagner, because his work was greatly admired by Adolf Hitler and was appropriated by the Nazis.[4][17][18] Allegedly he greeted subordinates by saying "Heil!", wore a Wehrmacht field cap around Wagner training grounds, and sometimes signed his name with the lightning bolt insignia of the SS.[19]

Members of the Wagner Group have said that Utkin was a Rodnover, a believer in the Slavic native faith.[20]"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dmitry_Utkin#:~:text=Allegedly%20he%20greeted,faith.%5B20%5D

Refreshing the Guardian article brought up a paywall, but maybe it should have led with the Wagner Group's warcrimes? For fucks' sake? (Is it "For fuck's sake" or "For fucks' sake"? Don't want to make a grammar error while reaming a pair of journalists. )
posted by sebastienbailard at 12:26 PM on August 24, 2023 [4 favorites]

[the original is by Bryan Dawe and John Clarke]

Haha. I actually was re-reading this the other day in my trusty copy of "A Dagg at My Table" (Amazon) / listening to the Fred Dagg Anthology (Apple Music)

To put it in in the great John Clarke's wording, Prigozhin certainly put in a PB for going top down.
posted by inflatablekiwi at 12:31 PM on August 24, 2023 [2 favorites]

@sebastienbailard: Consensus of usage experts is that it's "for fuck's sake, -- that is, it's a singular fuck.
posted by Quasirandom at 12:35 PM on August 24, 2023 [6 favorites]

Refreshing the Guardian article brought up a paywall,

It's the softest paywall on the internet ("maybe you'd like to give us money, but maybe not"), you should be able to dismiss it.
posted by hoyland at 1:33 PM on August 24, 2023 [4 favorites]

The Kremlin appears to be setting conditions to deflect overt responsibility for Prigozhin’s assassination away from Putin and the Russian military.

There's a whole other can of worms (apologies if I get some of this wrong) relating to the investigation of aircraft accidents in Russia. The Russian version is the NTSB, the MAK, isn't actually Russian--it's a multi-state organization shared by a number of post-Soviet states--and Russia has been trying to wrest control/power away from the MAK to Rosaviatsia. (Russia passed a law with the intent of removing power from the MAK but screwed it up somehow.) Having a subcommittee investigate the weather and another investigate the aircraft's maintenance history and so on is typical, even if it's pretty darn obvious the weather isn't a factor, someone has to go write down that the weather wasn't a factor. However, I would expect (someone correct me if I'm wrong) the fact that Rosaviatsia is spinning up these committees is part of the larger political drama around accident investigation.
posted by hoyland at 1:42 PM on August 24, 2023 [4 favorites]

If they don't want to acknowledge the shoot down, there's a decent chance they'll blame some combination of pilot error and maintenance issues resulting from those dastardly sanctions.
posted by snuffleupagus at 1:46 PM on August 24, 2023

If that's true, it's the first real, concrete effect I've heard of the sanctions having on Russia. Totally worth it.
posted by hippybear at 1:52 PM on August 24, 2023

‘It’s Likely Prigozhin Was Killed,’ Pentagon Says. (Live link, so will change).

“Our initial assessment is that it’s likely Prigozhin was killed,” the Pentagon spokesman, Brig. Gen. Patrick Ryder, said on Thursday afternoon. ...

The U.S. and Western officials who said an explosion was the leading theory behind the crash said the blast could have been caused by a bomb or other device planted on the aircraft, though other possibilities, like adulterated fuel, were also being explored.

posted by Nelson at 1:56 PM on August 24, 2023

wouldn't Foreign intelligence be able to detact a missle launch. I'm going with a bomb on board.
posted by clavdivs at 2:43 PM on August 24, 2023

wouldn't Foreign intelligence be able to detact a missle launch.

not at the scale of a surface-to-air missile way deep inside Russia where Tver is. the way we'll know is if/when any of the videos that seem to indicate a SAM are verified or corroborated.
posted by tclark at 2:56 PM on August 24, 2023 [1 favorite]

Hey, you know? You make a few incomprehensible repairs, a few things that don't make sense, and then the wing comes off. How could you know? You had orders, you were following orders.
posted by hippybear at 2:58 PM on August 24, 2023 [2 favorites]

not at the scale of a surface-to-air missile way deep inside Russia

True, my second thought was a shoulder S to A but that trail might be to visable. The wing was missing, perhaps a small air to air from a drone. But if planning this, I'd want a crash landing and no pics of missles or what not hence a bomb or sabotage. A bit like killing Kirov. Deniability as in no clear trail but obtuse afterthought.

to be clear Mr. Wagner was no Kirov.
posted by clavdivs at 3:39 PM on August 24, 2023

wouldn't Foreign intelligence be able to detact a missle launch.

If they can, they won't be releasing any information to confirm they have that capability.

I think they can, but want Russia not to be sure exactly how much they can detect. Random people in the public don't need to know if they heard the maydays so they are not saying anything. Maybe Biden knows. Or Putin.

I honestly think, given the number of Wagner personnel that were on board the plane, they may have been fully aware they were on an execution flight - but didn't have many other options other then doing up their seat belts and saying "блядь". Making a panic bolt to escape would just lead to prompt arrest and their families being arrested as well.
posted by Jane the Brown at 4:23 PM on August 24, 2023 [2 favorites]

a small air to air from a drone

It would need to be able to midair a turbofan jetliner at cruising speed (Mach 0.78) and altitude (up to 40k feet). I'm not sure Russia has anything like that, except for the 'drones' we refer to as missiles.

When they want to play chicken with US surveillance drones, they do so using fighters.
posted by snuffleupagus at 4:36 PM on August 24, 2023 [4 favorites]

Per NYT,

General Ryder did not state a theory for the crash, but said the United States had no information to indicate that a surface-to-air missile brought down the plane. Other officials said American satellite intelligence did not detect a missile launch, and there was no other evidence to suggest a surface-to-air weapon took out the plane. Western governments continue to explore the possibility that an air-to-air missile could have been used, even if an explosion on board remained the more likely scenario.

posted by Flunkie at 5:41 PM on August 24, 2023 [2 favorites]

Thinking of Orion variant but that says a ceiling of 24k ft. with laser-guided anti-tank. Though does have air to air. Mainly for helos .I believe the plane lost contact at 28,000 ft. Seems too sophisticated though. the report of unusual activity in preFlight would suggest a charge on the outer fuselage, perhaps the wings. small explosion followed by another, wing shears off, planes descends into a slow spiral. irony. thing is in the last 2 months, his death would have brought suspicion unless he was blown up in a ammo dump, best is a plane crash= accident. so why not have the plane crash in Africa, if he was even conscious,. political backlash, larger chance of detection. It had to be under controlled circumstances and in Russia complete with a set of fake tears.
posted by clavdivs at 6:05 PM on August 24, 2023 [1 favorite]

That's interesting. It goes 75mph though. The Embraer goes 650 mph. Looking at the AT missiles it carries, doesn't look like there would be nearly enough propellant to climb 4,000 feet (from the drone's max altitude) and intercept a fast moving jet (that the drone has to stay pointing at) in the same way it could descend following a laser designator to hit a hovering helicopter. But, maybe?
posted by snuffleupagus at 6:11 PM on August 24, 2023 [1 favorite]

It was an airplane. In Russia. Why the (expletive) would they fuck around with arcane drones and other techno thriller BS when a maintenance guy with a simple package bomb would suffice?
posted by aramaic at 6:19 PM on August 24, 2023 [8 favorites]

There does seem to be a nonzero chance he faked his death or otherwise escaped. If the CIA or others have better deep fake tech that is generally known then we could see all sorts of shenanigans.
posted by interogative mood at 6:57 PM on August 24, 2023

That's part of what makes Putin's voice-over for his address to the BRICS meeting in South Africa so weird. The Kremlin posted an original version of the video online but then when he delivered the pre-recorded speech via online or satellite, there was a voice actor doing lip-synch for his speech.

Surely with those hours-long citizen phone call sessions he's done across the decades there would be enough voice data to have a Putin Voice available any time he wanted.

I assume he's avoided this because it could be abused behind his back, but still... he so carefully controls everything else. That voice over thing feels like a really really weird choice.
posted by hippybear at 7:08 PM on August 24, 2023

Since Prigo was known to file false manifests and use body doubles, I won't believe he was offed unless some dead-hand kompromat comes out
posted by klangklangston at 8:27 PM on August 24, 2023

It was an airplane. In Russia. Why the (expletive) would they fuck around with arcane drones and other techno thriller BS when a maintenance guy with a simple package bomb would suffice

A few have deduced that, already.
the real trick is not getting the devil back into the box, it's getting him back in the box willingly.
posted by clavdivs at 8:28 PM on August 24, 2023

Prigozhin's business idea was to kill people in Africa for money.

He lead his army on an invasion of Russia.

Days after that, he flew around Russia to pick up the bags of cash he left behind.

Now, getting on a plane again towards Moscow, he's going to ask himself: actually, this could be dangerous?

Yeah, he's dead.
posted by UN at 9:23 PM on August 24, 2023 [4 favorites]

Is the NTSB going to issue guidance for owner/operators of Embraer jets to check their planes to see if there is mercenary leadership onboard?
posted by srboisvert at 3:32 AM on August 25, 2023 [7 favorites]

WSJ: The Last Days of Wagner’s Prigozhin [gift link]

Yevgeny Prigozhin spent his final days planning for the future. Last Friday, the warlord’s private jet touched down in the capital of Central African Republic, on a mission to salvage one of the first client states of his Wagner mercenary company. His African empire had come to include some 5,000 men deployed across the continent...

Prigozhin told President Faustin-Archange Touadera that his aborted June mutiny in Russia wouldn’t stop him from bringing new fighters and investments to his business partners in Central Africa, according to three people familiar with the meeting.

Shortly after, a Wagner helicopter landed nearby carrying five commanders from Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces, a paramilitary group reliant on the mercenary group to wage war against their country’s government. The delegation had traveled to Bangui from the restive Darfur province bearing a gift for Prigozhin, who had provided them surface-to-air missiles: gold bars from the mines his mercenaries helped secure in Sudan’s war-torn west.

On the other side of the Sahara, Prigozhin’s rivals in Russia’s defense ministry were delivering a competing message to Wagner’s clients in Libya. The Kremlin was taking formal control of a sprawling corporate network whose ambitions had outgrown President Vladimir Putin’s comfort...Its income derived from exports of Sudanese gold to Russia, and diamonds and wood from the Central African Republic to United Arab Emirates and China...
posted by mediareport at 4:27 AM on August 25, 2023 [3 favorites]

The Wagner T-Shirt guy shocked at the lack of humanity at that cemetary is... I'm not sure I can find the words for it. The lack of self reflection is impressive. Yeah, you built this.
posted by UN at 7:44 AM on August 25, 2023 [4 favorites]

Damnatio Memoriae. Watch Putin turn it into a garbage dump.
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:55 AM on August 25, 2023

I know a mercenary group is not a normal business but it is so weird that a business has a cemetery
posted by jason_steakums at 7:59 AM on August 25, 2023 [1 favorite]

I know a mercenary group is not a normal business but it is so weird that a business has a cemetery

That Wagner promised to provide dignified burials was a big part of their recruitment pitch, actually. I won't link to the photos because they are horrible, but the regular Russian army has been both leaving soldiers' bodies in the field (i.e., registering them as missing, not dead) and sometimes shipping them back in big gross "meat cubes" of stacked and frozen corpses on pallets.

So if it is true that they are bulldozing the cemeteries, it is a very deliberate message being sent.
posted by Dip Flash at 8:05 AM on August 25, 2023 [11 favorites]

and sometimes shipping them back in big gross "meat cubes" of stacked and frozen corpses on pallets.

Um. https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/mobik-meat-cube
posted by Stoneshop at 8:42 AM on August 25, 2023 [4 favorites]

It's not on the Russian Interstate Aviation Committee's website investigations page yet, but I look forward to learning more about the ongoing issues of (*investigation team checks envelope handed to them by a member of the FSB*) bird strikes at 30,000 feet.
posted by inflatablekiwi at 9:26 AM on August 25, 2023 [2 favorites]

Um. https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/mobik-meat-cube

Thank you for the correction -- I had seen when this was first posted but hadn't seen the debunking. That is a great reminder of how there is so much misinformation out there.
posted by Dip Flash at 9:31 AM on August 25, 2023 [1 favorite]

re the mobik meat cube thing - I saw on reliable video (Volodymyr and Dmitry) quite a few months ago, multiple rail cars stacked with Russian dead, which Russia refused to accept. I won't go into the grisly details but it was well demonstrated that they were indeed Russian KIAs. So I can see how the misinformation could easily be spread.
posted by Meatbomb at 9:49 AM on August 25, 2023 [1 favorite]

Meatbomb: multiple rail cars stacked with Russian dead

Including complaints from citizens living nearby the rail yards these cars were standing in, about the smell as the refrigerators failed.
posted by Stoneshop at 10:04 AM on August 25, 2023 [1 favorite]

I saw on reliable video (Volodymyr and Dmitry) quite a few months ago, multiple rail cars stacked with Russian dead, which Russia refused to accept.

This was also reported in the NYT, for whatever that is worth.
posted by Dip Flash at 11:27 AM on August 25, 2023

”Where’s the ammunition?” [single link cartoon]
posted by Artw at 11:57 AM on August 25, 2023 [1 favorite]

Per some random NCD redditor, the Crimea raid is already paying off:

mtaw
spy agency shill
12h

Nobody claimed otherwise. Ukraine said they raided and left in their statement. I don't know why the hell anyone would seriously think they would stage any kind of large-scale landing over 100 miles of ocean with no ships to even do it with.

Not to mention the presence of the 3rd Radio Engineering Regiment base and radar station at Cape Tarkhankut has been known and written about for years, and their stated landing site - the beach between Mayak and Olenivka is less than 2 km from the radomes.

They also hit the S-400 site that's 6 km north of Olenivka the day before. So it's pretty damn obvious it's a raid and what they raided and why if anyone here actually bothered to look at any context. They punched a hole in the air defenses so they could fly drones through it.

Which they are now doing - Russian social media this night is reporting explosions/air defense heard in Tarkhankut and Simferopol and aerial drones being heard over both Sevastopol and Simferopol.

posted by sebastienbailard at 1:42 PM on August 25, 2023 [7 favorites]

i know it's not new-new but for me it sort of crystalizes the visualization of this extra-modern war: scores of drone operators doing what they can bit by bit & day by day, restricted by air defenses, and suddenly a hole opens up and it's a hoard of drones flooding through the zone like a real-life zerg rush

the retrospective war movies to be made from this conflict become practically indistinguishable from video game playthroughs
posted by glonous keming at 1:49 PM on August 25, 2023 [4 favorites]

"Moscow hits out over Biden’s unacceptable’ Wagner boss dig at Putin"

Really, European and American weapons are f****** pounding you day after day and your you're angry at a quip.
wTF are they gonna do, fucking MOD will be hurling to rocks by spring.
posted by clavdivs at 2:38 PM on August 25, 2023

bird strikes at 30,000 feet.

Not that this was anything but an assassination but there actually are some birds that fly that high, some of them even live in Europe. A Rüppell's vulture was even hit by a plane at 37,000 feet.
posted by Mitheral at 3:35 PM on August 25, 2023 [4 favorites]

Gee thanks Mitheral. Now all someone in the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment of the Russian Federation has to do is spend the weekend publishing a new paper entitled "Changing Migratory Patterns of Rüppell's Vulture - From the Ivory Coast to Moscow", back date it a few months, and they have the perfect crime. ;-)
posted by inflatablekiwi at 3:55 PM on August 25, 2023 [8 favorites]

Finnish authorities have nabbed a thoroughly unpleasant individual called Yan Petrovsky, one of the co-founders of Rusich, a far right paramilitary group operating under Wagner. The Rusich group is pausing their activities in the SMO while this is sorted out. Ukraine likely wants him extradited for war crimes.

If I were to guess I would think that Russia would be perfectly OK with this guy just going away as well in the aftermath of the Wagner plane "crash". They do say that have offered him consular assistance while being detained in Finland.
posted by Harald74 at 2:25 AM on August 26, 2023 [3 favorites]

Consular assistance, get yer consular assistance here! Act now and get free polonium!
posted by Flunkie at 10:47 AM on August 26, 2023

Reports of Putin demanding anyone performing military service for Russia sign an oath of loyalty that binds them to following orders of Russian officers. Did Prigozhin have a strong second they might otherwise be listening to?
posted by hippybear at 1:50 PM on August 26, 2023

I don't know exactly how the idea of "second" applied between them, but one of the others who was apparently killed in the crash (Utkin) was at least in some sense top-level. My understanding (which may very well be wrong, or at least not entirely accurate) was that Prigozhin was the face-and-finance side, and Utkin was the kill-people side.
posted by Flunkie at 1:58 PM on August 26, 2023 [1 favorite]

Incidentally, that's why I guessed earlier in this thread that maybe the reason it seemed to take a long time for this to happen was because maybe this was the first time, or one of the rare times, that P & U were known to be together. Kill one of them, the other's now a cornered animal with nothing to lose. Kill them both, no such problem.
posted by Flunkie at 2:01 PM on August 26, 2023 [1 favorite]

RE: Ukrainian corruption, a core part of Zelenskyy's platform was fixing it.

He styled himself as an anti-establishment, anti-corruption figure, although he was not generally described as a populist. He said he wished to restore trust in politicians, "to bring professional, decent people to power" and to "change the mood and timbre of the political establishment". -- https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volodymyr_Zelenskyy

So, I think this is more a case of everyone knowing it happens and being pleasantly surprised when someone is held accountable.
posted by krisjohn at 4:29 PM on August 26, 2023 [2 favorites]

In case you want to hear what the other side is saying, Ryan McBeth points out some of the nonsensical statements in the Tucker Carlson - Col MacGregor interview about the war in Ukraine.

One of the better ones: the Carlson interviewee claims the Russian military is so much better than both the Ukrainian and US militaries, despite the obvious fact that in a year Russia has not won against the former.
posted by meowzilla at 6:45 PM on August 26, 2023 [4 favorites]

Remember the pre-war days where Republicans would regularly spaff off to Russian army recruitment videos?
posted by Artw at 6:48 PM on August 26, 2023 [1 favorite]

Do you really think that has stopped?
posted by stevis23 at 8:24 PM on August 26, 2023

I thought the starving convicts forced into battle at gunpoint and all that might have slowed them down a little, yeah.
posted by Artw at 9:43 PM on August 26, 2023 [2 favorites]

Eyewitness account from the southern front, translated by Tatarigami_UA.

Equipment and personnel can be spotted from a distance and targeted. Both sides understand that there are limited places for positions and deployment. Most likely, there's something to shoot at in almost every tree line. Confirmation is needed, of course. Primarily, it's necessary to determine the priority of the target

There's a limited number of access roads, logistical routes. Everything's been calibrated and fired upon repeatedly every day. You certainly can be spotted. Carrying out the mission while maintaining complete concealment from the enemy is mostly impossible
posted by Harald74 at 10:39 PM on August 26, 2023 [2 favorites]

Ukrainian Army Closer to Taking Fire Control of Land Corridor to Crimea’ – Kyiv

The Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) are steadily advancing in the southern regions and are poised to assert fire control over the crucial “land corridor to Crimea,” according to Kyiv officials.

As a result, the Russian military is facing the imminent loss of vital strategic strongholds, Mykhailo Podolyak, an advisor to the head of the Office of the President, wrote in an X (Twitter) post.

“The bottom line: Russian defense lines are beginning to crumble. The Ukrainian army is advancing southward with some success, coming one step closer to taking fire control of the ‘land corridor to #Crimea,’” Podolyak said.

“The stakes are already clear: all Russian supply lines, including railroads, are at stake. This means one thing: the Russian army is on the verge of losing its strategic positions,” he added.

posted by UN at 2:16 AM on August 27, 2023 [7 favorites]

maybe this was the first time, or one of the rare times, that P & U were known to be together.

I've read somewhere that Prigozhin, Utkin and their head of security actually often traveled together. That third guy should have bashed their heads together the first time they were supposed to go on the same plane, stating "separate flights for all three of us", but he clearly didn't.

"We're lucky they're so fucking stupid."
posted by Stoneshop at 4:36 AM on August 27, 2023

Perun, who tells us he has been planning to make a video along these lines since the June coup attempt, has released a detailed analysis of the crash
posted by rongorongo at 6:32 AM on August 27, 2023

Phillips O'Brien: The Shameful Credit Grab for Ukrainian Success; The Good News: Signs of Success; Comparing Militaries:


If you recall, over a week ago (I talked about it in last week’s update) the anonymous stories were all about how slow the Ukrainians were going and how it was because they refused to fight in the NATO fashion that the Americans were telling them to do.

Well guess what—almost immediately after these stories appeared it became clear that perhaps, just perhaps, the Ukrainians were having some success. At that point, instead of throwing the Ukrainians under the bus (the previous strategy) the anonymous sources pivoted 180 degrees and tried to create a new narrative which argued that any success the Ukrainians were having was not really a Ukrainian success, it was the result of the Ukrainians being pushed into line by the strategic brilliance of the US and UK.
posted by Harald74 at 6:44 AM on August 27, 2023 [3 favorites]

From the article Harald74 linked above, interesting quotes from Ukrainian analyst Mykola Bielieskov:

But from the Ukrainian perspective that was adopted in mid-June, we saw that using mechanized assaults would not quickly penetrate Russian defenses. So we started a slow attrition process to undermine their defense system based on artillery, electronic warfare, and air defense. We see daily evidence that this is working by destroying dozens of Russian artillery pieces. This campaign of destruction is proving effective.”

“That’s why we decided to start from different sides. First, to destroy tube and rocket artillery and then move safely to the mines, instead of trying to breach the mines without fully suppressing Russian artillery. That’s the essence of the new Ukrainian approach: Ukraine placed its bets on a proper attrition rate, creating a safe environment for demining and then moving on.

But this is only one part of this approach. There are also in-depth strikes targeting links between the South Mainland and Crimea. And another one is simultaneously pinning as many Russian forces as possible to prevent Russians from maneuvering reserves, which is why they currently have this problem with the deficit of reserves.

Even as we see recently, they redeployed some paratroopers from Kherson Oblast to the Zaporizhzhia Oblast. And that’s why we try to prevent their maneuver and again to exhaust the Russians sooner than they exhaust us.”

That seems to match up with the many videos of destruction posted daily on the internets. It's been mentioned here previously, the Ukrainian offensive isn't making huge territorial gains, but it's anything but stagnant. I just don't know how the losses are in any way sustainable for Russia — outside of a 'believe your own fantasy' version of Russian WW2 pseudo-history popular both in Russia and the West which could make one mistakenly think the country has infinite resources to throw into this war.
posted by UN at 9:36 AM on August 27, 2023 [6 favorites]

The "they're not fighting like we want, they're too slow, they're not going to get very far" was from one leaked report, and was almost immediately contradicted by other Pentagon sources. It certainly may be that those contradictions were nothing but spin for damage control, but I have to imagine that the USDOD produces many reports on issues like this, and that it's probably not infrequent that some of them are contradictory. I thus feel like O'Brien's take on this is not necessarily accurate.
posted by Flunkie at 9:58 AM on August 27, 2023 [1 favorite]

WaPo (and presumably other sources) are saying Russia is claiming that Priggy’s death has been confirmed by DNA testing.
posted by Quasirandom at 10:47 AM on August 27, 2023 [1 favorite]

Three Russian S-300 air defense systems damaged in Kherson Oblast, Ukrainian military says [Aug 24, New Voice Of Ukraine]
posted by hippybear at 12:55 PM on August 27, 2023

but it's anything but stagnant

yes and there's at least 10 weeks to go. Ukraine should be close to a break through.
posted by clavdivs at 12:57 PM on August 27, 2023 [1 favorite]

Reuters confirming DNA positive.
posted by clavdivs at 1:02 PM on August 27, 2023

No, as far as I can tell Reuters is confirming that Russia claims the DNA is positive.

Frankly unless and until a body is provided to multiple entities that are not Russian or Russia-aligned for independent verification, every claim about this has got to be prepended with a "Russia claims" grain of salt.
posted by trig at 2:47 PM on August 27, 2023 [1 favorite]

It does leave open the possibility of Priggy coming back at some point in the future.

Life as MCU.
posted by hippybear at 3:03 PM on August 27, 2023

paper beats rock cardboard beats aircraft-grade aluminum

"Apparently they managed to hit Four Su-30, a Mig-29, an S-300 and two Pantsir SAM systems all the way up to Kursk with some spicy cardboard drones"

posted by sebastienbailard at 3:53 PM on August 27, 2023 [8 favorites]

“Spicy” drones, indeed.
posted by Quasirandom at 4:03 PM on August 27, 2023 [1 favorite]

No, as far as I can tell Reuters is confirming
They are, not sure if our side could get a tissue sample. There's little to no evidence he was alive on July 1st. But,

"That's the worry, you see. Cause and effect. Yevgeny quarrels with Vladimir one day. Yevgeny gets shot with a Russian gun the next. In police terms that's what they call an embarrassing chain of events."

-George Smiley.
posted by clavdivs at 4:35 PM on August 27, 2023 [1 favorite]

The Russian Federation has no resources, except for human resource, to wage a protracted war. - an article in English that links to a Ukrainian interview on YouTube. (Both built-in subtitle translation and browser-based translation of the transcript do fairly well.) The referenced section starts around 57:43. Note that the transcript below does not make it obvious who's speaking, but it's mostly the interviewee; Head of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine Kyrylo Budanov.

57:43: This war is that a long-term war will continue to be
57:48: continue because he has resources from the human action, except for human resources, he has no more resources.
57:55: There is no military resource, nor is there a military-industrial complex in mind military reserves.
58:02
already exhausted human are those who say from there they have many dead they will not think
58:09: There is a lot of military material in them, but this is the only thing they have in sufficient
...
58:35: There are many experts I listen so much to this sometimes and why they try to buy
58:42: North Korea's ammunition so why if they're enough
58:48: to fight longer No because there is nothing that's why they've exhausted their problem
58:54: You see how it is again returned to the same Soviet Union because this date 1991
59:02: Inextricably linked to everything that happened so the reserves were no space
59:08: stocks in Russia, as in Ukraine, by the way, were also very huge
59:14: But in 30 years, no one has only sold these stocks.
59:21: Russia always in recent years Look at the second third country in export and in
59:27: it was still black export and to black export Just it went
59:32: It was all more than white and when it started.
59:38: The war was all about what it had been six months and began to go to
59:45: Iran to look for where to buy in Africa in Cuba there is nothing
59:51: The industry is as destroyed as it is

The gist of all this being that while Russia appears to have an endless supply of people it's willing to sacrifice, not only does it have logistical issues keeping them supplied with basics like food, fuel and ammunition due to the work Ukraine has done to choke supply lines, but it also has a fundamental shortage of military hardware since it not only stopped producing stuff decades ago, but also because what stocks it did have it's been selling.

Ukraine has noticed, along with the rest of the world, that high-value targets are not getting replaced. Destroying one doesn't just reduce capacity temporarily, it reduces it permanently. This is why we're seeing a ground war that feels like something from a hundred years ago. When your only resource is people, this is the only fight you can fight. If Russia commits its best hardware to this battle and then loses, NATO could just walk up to the Kremlin and knock on the door.
posted by krisjohn at 5:23 PM on August 27, 2023 [3 favorites]

The spicy cardboard appears to be the Syspac Corvo Precision Payload Delivery System - Heavy Lift (PPDS - HL). The regular PPDS cost less than $3,500 apiece.

It is constructed from precision-cut waxed cardboard; the wax provides a good level of waterproofing and the PPDS can operate in wet weather.[3] The individual parts are designed for ease of assembly by the user, being taped and glued together with the wings attached via heavy-duty rubber bands, as commonly done on model aircraft.

This thing is amazing.

The entire unit, including tablet, is supplied in flatpack form, and in volume quantities may be palletised for delivery. Assembly is simple, using only the basic tools supplied in the flatpack, such as sticky tape and rubber bands

Press video of the drone including launches by hand or catapult and landing for retrieval. Australia is currently shipping 100 of the cardboard drones a month to Ukraine.
posted by Mitheral at 5:27 PM on August 27, 2023 [13 favorites]

neat they made all-weather war drones out of fish boxes. that's brilliant
posted by glonous keming at 7:19 PM on August 27, 2023

Australia is currently shipping 100 of the cardboard drones a month to Ukraine.

I guess that the airframe is not the limiting factor here, I imagine they could easily churn out a million of those a month.
posted by Harald74 at 11:37 PM on August 27, 2023

Being battery powered I guess they have no need to use PET bottles as fuel tanks.
posted by St. Oops at 3:51 AM on August 28, 2023

it also has a fundamental shortage of military hardware since it not only stopped producing stuff decades ago, but also because what stocks it did have it's been selling.

A point made early on about the need for sanctions was that Russia has a GDP is about the same size as Canada's (having 3.5 times the population). To match even tiny (in % of GDP) increases in donations and loans to Ukraine from NATO countries, Russia would have to give over their entire economy to weapons production….presuming they still had the capacity to do that.
posted by brachiopod at 5:39 AM on August 28, 2023 [2 favorites]

neat they made all-weather war drones out of fish boxes. that's brilliant

it is. But as much as I love a good paper plane takes out $100m fighter jet story when Russia is on the wrong end of it, it also scares the shit out of me how others may misuse this. Wouldn't take too many spicy drones to put a hell of a ground halt on commercial aviation in almost any country.
posted by inflatablekiwi at 8:28 AM on August 28, 2023 [6 favorites]

That thought was already occurring to me before Re:this conflict and drones, and the new kit seems like it’s only going to accelerate that.
posted by Artw at 8:51 AM on August 28, 2023

Billionaires ought to be really scared, and if they aren't, they're not paying attention.
posted by seanmpuckett at 9:19 AM on August 28, 2023 [3 favorites]

You don't even need an actual drone; London Heathrow has closed down for mere rumours about drones.
posted by Harald74 at 9:58 AM on August 28, 2023 [1 favorite]

Wouldn't take too many spicy drones to put a hell of a ground halt on commercial aviation in almost any country.

You don't even need a payload. Just bird strike an engine during takeoff.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 11:46 AM on August 28, 2023

And with over 500 commercial airports in the US it wouldn’t be hard to find a few where there is plenty of opportunity to get close / oversee the airport quite easily and be well away from large law enforcement response teams. Jackson Hole comes to mind and there are enough wealthy folks flying in and out that chances you take out a plane with a few company executives / politicians may be higher
posted by inflatablekiwi at 1:30 PM on August 28, 2023 [3 favorites]

Aw no, no Russia is sending its horsies to get dogmeated at the front.
posted by Artw at 1:41 PM on August 28, 2023

These things catapult launch. You can literally place them in pretty much any hidey hole within a few minutes of an airport/the target at any time you wish ahead of time and have them launch and follow a route completely anonymously. A few R/C bits, a fridge box, a powerbank and an old android phone and you are good to go.
posted by Mitheral at 1:41 PM on August 28, 2023

it is. But as much as I love a good paper plane takes out $100m fighter jet story when Russia is on the wrong end of it, it also scares the shit out of me how others may misuse this.

Think of it like this: the tech to do this has been around for decades, and nobody* bothered until a nuclear power decided it wanted their territory. That's a pretty restrained humanity, IMO.
posted by pwnguin at 2:13 PM on August 28, 2023 [2 favorites]

Also:

neat they made all-weather war drones out of fish boxes. that's brilliant

Solid Snake is gonna have a field day with this in mgs6.
posted by pwnguin at 2:30 PM on August 28, 2023 [1 favorite]

Jackson Hole comes to mind and there are enough wealthy folks flying in and out that chances you take out a plane with a few company executives / politicians may be higher


but have you considered that the monocle skeet crowd will just gather more momentum by constructing huge net domes, hire more people to stake out all the airports, having all the cops in their pocket, this could turn out to be pretty ugly. I just have this image of 40 or 50 beagles just running around all the Hiddy holes for cardboard drones.

'Russia Says It Intercepted Two US Drones Near Crimea'


what I'd like to know is in a few days he was in Russia before the plane went down were their news reports of him like going around to various places picking up gold and money or something like that.
posted by clavdivs at 3:09 PM on August 28, 2023

"You are heirs of the great Russia - the great Russia of the saints, of kings, the great Russia of Peter the Great, of Catherine II, the great Russian empire, cultured, so much culture, so much humanity. You are the heirs of the great mother Russia. Go forward.

An excerpt of a speech to Russian youth in St. Petersburg on Aug 28 by Vladimir Putin Pope Francis.
posted by UN at 6:21 PM on August 28, 2023

Eheu. Pontifex est caudex.
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:13 PM on August 28, 2023

Blockhead, indeed.
posted by Quasirandom at 6:31 AM on August 29, 2023

I just have this image of 40 or 50 beagles just running around all the Hiddy holes for cardboard drones.

I'm imagining a lot of those Beagles getting stomped on by the Moose and Elk around Jackson Hole airport :-) I look forward to the Kandahar airport style steep take-offs and hard landings to quickly get either up and safe or down and safe coming soon to commercial aviation. No more gliding along the Wasatch front or Teton range for the views while landing....
posted by inflatablekiwi at 9:26 AM on August 29, 2023

I never considered the elk and moose club.
posted by clavdivs at 11:12 AM on August 29, 2023

Bidenwave
posted by sebastienbailard at 4:21 PM on August 29, 2023 [5 favorites]

Ukraine is still independent and Free!

Great link sebastianballard!
posted by Windopaene at 6:44 PM on August 29, 2023

BBC: Ukraine war: 'Drone attack' on airport damages Russian transport planes

A drone attack on an airport in the north-western Russian city of Pskov has damaged two military transport planes, Russian news agencies are reporting.

The Ilyushin 76 transport planes caught fire in the attack, the reports say.

...

Pskov is more than 600km (372 miles) away from Ukraine, close to the border with Estonia.

posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 7:06 PM on August 29, 2023 [3 favorites]

More video of the huge fires and explosions at Pskov Airport. There are also unconfirmed reports that a one of Russia’s few microprocessor factories got hit in Bryansk and another airfield in Tula.
posted by interogative mood at 8:39 PM on August 29, 2023 [1 favorite]

good
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 11:25 PM on August 29, 2023 [2 favorites]

Remember, there is no war in Russia. Do not call it a war. Russia has always been at peace, with itself and with its neighbors — since the day you were born.

This has been just another Special Military Event™
posted by UN at 2:13 AM on August 30, 2023

The Guardian is reporting Russia is, uh, allowing the possibility the plane was brought down intentionally, which is a quasi-interesting development. Or they have a rubbish spokesperson.
posted by hoyland at 3:48 AM on August 30, 2023

Busy night tonight in Russia. And it will hopefully put a few dilemmas in front of Russian authorities with regards to where to put their air defence assets going forward.
posted by Harald74 at 4:10 AM on August 30, 2023 [4 favorites]

And GeoConfirmed reported a few hours ago that Russian artillery were shelling Ukrainians behind the Surovikin line on the Tokmak axis. Let's hope it's a proper breach, not just some infiltration attempt.
posted by Harald74 at 4:13 AM on August 30, 2023 [3 favorites]

And with over 500 commercial airports in the US it wouldn’t be hard to find a few where there is plenty of opportunity to get close / oversee the airport quite easily and be well away from large law enforcement response teams. Jackson Hole comes to mind and there are enough wealthy folks flying in and out that chances you take out a plane with a few company executives / politicians may be higher

I once cycled from my parent's home to YYZ (Pearson International Airport in Mississauga (Toronto) ) and the route took me on the service roads that surrounded the airport. I was visited very quickly be airport security teams in two SUVs and their approach was very military and tactical. They stopped about a hundred meters away and hailed me on a loudspeaker first. That was twenty years ago. Airports have pretty deep levels of security you almost never hear about.
posted by srboisvert at 4:50 AM on August 30, 2023 [1 favorite]

The Defence Intelligence of Ukraine has now confirmed the destruction of four Russian Il-76 military transport aircraft during the attack on Pskov, along with damage to two other aircraft.
posted by Kabanos at 7:00 AM on August 30, 2023 [4 favorites]

ChrisO_wiki (@[e-mail])

2/ Commentators have noted that an elaborate "special funeral operation" was held for Prigozhin, in which journalists and the police were directed towards St Petersburg's Serafimovskoye cemetery. Meanwhile, Prigozhin was actually buried at the Porokhovskoye cemetery on the other side of the city.

posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 7:22 AM on August 30, 2023 [3 favorites]

Airports have pretty deep levels of security you almost never hear about.

in 2010-ish I was handed a security photo ID RFID badge literally labelled "Airport - access all areas" by an airport security officer to exit the Grand Cayman airport parking lot...because it was hot outside and he didn't want to have to walk outside in the heat to diagnose why my parking ticket wasn't lifting the parking lot gate arm. He simply told me to "bring it back"...which I did 20 minutes later. Toronto Pearson is a 1,000 flights a day major airport. I'm sure JAC or Dawson Community Airport, or Glacier Airport have some perimeter security....but I very much doubt it's the same when you are in the 10-40 flights a day category.
posted by inflatablekiwi at 12:03 PM on August 30, 2023 [5 favorites]

I don’t know if it is still the case but Jackson Hole had a lot of not so visible security upgrades added during the Bush Presidency because Dick Cheney spent a lot of his time there. Watching a couple of C-130s and Air Force 2 try to land and takeoff there was quite a sight.
posted by interogative mood at 12:30 PM on August 30, 2023

Toronto Pearson is a 1,000 flights a day major airport. I'm sure JAC or Dawson Community Airport, or Glacier Airport have some perimeter security....but I very much doubt it's the same when you are in the 10-40 flights a day category.

Which makes sense? But has little more relevance here than Jackson Hole.

The airports in question were those in Moscow and St. Petersburg.
posted by snuffleupagus at 12:50 PM on August 30, 2023

The airports in question were those in Moscow and St. Petersburg.

I might be misinterpreting, but I thought the "spicy drones" subthread was about the recent attack on Pskov Airport, not about the Prigozhin/Utkin thing (which I assume is what you're referring to in this "Moscow and St. Petersburg" comment)?

To be clear, I know essentially nothing about Pskov Airport, but I'm having a hard time imagining it's on the same scale as major airports of Moscow or St. Petersburg.
posted by Flunkie at 1:24 PM on August 30, 2023 [1 favorite]

Not sure, the original comment was in response to the attack on Kursk, I think (and the thread generally to Prigozhin's death, though I get we're using it as the new war thread).

Kursk isn't such a small city. Anyway, I'm not that eager to so closely analyze speculation of "taking out" an aircraft at one of "500 commercial airports" that have a higher likelihood of having "a few company executives / politicians" on board. Along with, you know, everyone else.

If you wanted to talk about using cheap hand-launched drones to shut down an airport being used by pols for disproportional effect, as has been happening in response to Ukrainian drone flights in Moscow, one of the advantages of those cheap drones is that you don't need to launch them from within perimeter security; and indeed, why would you? And many major US airports are near the coast, or directly on it, with approaches and departures over water.
posted by snuffleupagus at 2:19 PM on August 30, 2023

A drone attack like the one on Pskov launched against any airport in the US or Canada would be pretty hard to stop even if we were on more of a war footing alert level. My understanding is that it is clear what systems were used in these recent attacks. The popular theory is special forces launched 30-40 drones from 70 miles away. That is a big search area to patrol. The cardboard drones have a very small radar cross section and fly at heights and in patterns that make them look a lot like birds. Without lots of software upgrades most radar systems are not going to simply filter them out as noise. And of course with those upgrades you get lots of false positives because birds.
posted by interogative mood at 3:46 PM on August 30, 2023 [1 favorite]

Update today from Meduza on the situation in the "Robotyne–Verbove–Novoprokopivka triangle."

And one from Al Jazeera.
posted by snuffleupagus at 4:51 PM on August 30, 2023 [4 favorites]

Half an hour of Ryan McBeth fact-checking Tucker Carlson's interview with Col. MacGregor. (CW: Lots of Tucker Carlson)
posted by Harald74 at 10:54 PM on August 30, 2023

Putin’s colonel killed in drone strike while mowing lawn at his Russian residence

Alexei Chernykh, affiliated with Russia’s anti-corruption police, lost his life while performing gardening tasks at his rural home in Shchetinovka, Russia, which is located close to the Ukraine border.

The news of his death was reported by Russian Telegram channel Baza, which has ties to the country’s security services.

No official responsibility has been claimed by Ukraine for the drone strike. In past instances, Ukraine has distanced itself from attacks on Russian soil.

Baza stated on Monday that Chernykh was killed when “a Ukrainian drone dropped ammunition on his garden in Shchetinovka.”

posted by achrise at 4:42 PM on August 31, 2023 [2 favorites]

In what sense was this guy, as opposed to any other Russian colonel, "Putin's colonel"? I might have missed it, but I didn't see any explanation of this in the article.
posted by Flunkie at 5:24 PM on August 31, 2023

He seems to have been deputy chief of a local branch of the anti-corruption police, which I don't imagine places him high on the target list.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 5:45 PM on August 31, 2023

Maybe as he was blowing up he thought “fuck, I AM one of Putin’s Colonels”.
posted by Artw at 6:29 PM on August 31, 2023 [6 favorites]

Alexei Chernykh, affiliated with Russia’s anti-corruption police, lost his life while performing gardening tasks at his rural home in Shchetinovka, Russia

those greenhouse windows are murder
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 7:15 PM on August 31, 2023

I like the idea that Russian officers in Russia should no longer feel safe mowing their own lawns.
posted by VTX at 8:05 PM on August 31, 2023 [2 favorites]

Aug 31 (Reuters) - Igor Girkin, a prominent Russian ultranationalist in custody awaiting trial on charges of inciting extremism, said on Thursday he would make a better president than Vladimir Putin, describing him as gullible and "too kind".

Girkin issued a Telegram post entitled "On running as a candidate for president of the Russian Federation", suggesting he planned to stand in the March 2024 election, when Putin is expected to seek six more years in power.

Guess we won't see him on trial in the Netherlands for murder then.
posted by UN at 11:06 PM on August 31, 2023

Bret Devereaux on ACOUP has a good section today debunking the notion that NATO both could and should compel Ukraine and Russia to seek a negotiated solution to the conflict.
posted by TheophileEscargot at 1:10 AM on September 1, 2023 [5 favorites]

I have a feeling like the Russian influence operations have kicked up a notch lately, with ideas about settlements, though I have no sources for this. But they are the party that would benefit from any kind of pause in hostilities at the moment, it seems like.
posted by Harald74 at 3:19 AM on September 1, 2023 [3 favorites]

A negotiated solution would be fine, as long as it involves Russia returning all Ukrainian territories. It's the outcome that matters more than it is how it's arrived at.

(I realise that it is not exactly realistic at present, but I see so much discourse that says a peaceful solution is unacceptable. I think it is acceptable, just not on Russia's terms.)
posted by Dysk at 3:31 AM on September 1, 2023 [5 favorites]

Yeah, I assume the settlement noises are "Fuck they're pushing through our impregnable defenses AND they're bombing Moscow" basically. Hopefully no one in the west is quite that foolish...
posted by I claim sanctuary at 4:18 AM on September 1, 2023 [3 favorites]

The cardboard drones have a very small radar cross section and fly at heights and in patterns that make them look a lot like birds. Without lots of software upgrades most radar systems are not going to simply filter them out as noise. And of course with those upgrades you get lots of false positives because birds.

Major commercial airports explicitly monitor for birds. However it is unlikely they could shoot them out of the sky with anti-air. Even US weather radar picks up birds, bats and insects (Birdcast.org being a great use of it).

But yes drone weaponization is absolutely terrifying in its implications particularly with regard to terrorism and mass murder. Effectively nothing is defensible now without massive electronic interference.
posted by srboisvert at 5:35 AM on September 1, 2023

A negotiated solution would be fine, as long as it involves Russia returning all Ukrainian territories. It's the outcome that matters more than it is how it's arrived at.

Russia has violated pretty much every agreement Putin has entered into so unless the negotiation has some teeth, like joining NATO, I don't see how Ukraine accepts it.
posted by srboisvert at 5:39 AM on September 1, 2023 [8 favorites]

"We will stop bombing Moscow and return your POWs just as soon as you have all fucked off." I'm basically thinking surrender. But surrender is a negotiated settlement.
posted by Dysk at 6:00 AM on September 1, 2023 [1 favorite]

The cardboard drones have a very small radar cross section and fly at heights and in patterns that make them look a lot like birds. Without lots of software upgrades most radar systems are not going to simply filter them out as noise. And of course with those upgrades you get lots of false positives because birds.

There have a been a bunch of airport attacks recently, probably using a bunch of different drone types. The Drive's Warzone has a piece with a drone image showing the moment of destruction of one of the IL-76s destroyed at the Kresky base, as well as satellite imagery of the destroyed and damaged planes. At least in that case, it seems likely it was carried out from nearby:

The infrared image would mean these were likely bomblets dropped from a drone or drones under local man-in-the-loop control unless the source of the image was acting as an observation drone to record the strike, which seems unlikely. This would fit Budanov's comments that this was a strike launched inside Russia, likely very near the base, and not one using long-range autonomous drones. The video from which the still we obtained was captured looks like the drone had dropped one of the bomblets.
posted by Dip Flash at 7:05 AM on September 1, 2023

Wow, they got that "drones dropping cluster munitions bomblets" idea implemented very quickly and effectively
posted by jason_steakums at 7:20 AM on September 1, 2023

NATO does have considerable leverage in what settlement the Ukrainians accept. There is negligible motivation for Ukraine to accept any settlement unless it brings their unoccupied territory fully under the protection of NATO. So it is possible that Ukraine would reluctantly allow parts of their occupied territory to get signed into some alternative status, if that concession resulted in all of their unoccupied territory becoming safe from farther aggression. NATO has the same kind of leverage your rich uncle has. There comes a point when you will set up your future to oblige him, but the price he will have to pay for it is to make you his heir.

It's not inconceivable either that someone in power in Ukraine would sign territory away for personal gain - Zelenskyy is not the guy to do that, but history is full of stories where an elected leader was swayed essentially by bribes from outside interests. (That's pretty much what elected politicians do now. They get elected by constituents and serve the interests of the large donors.) A major regime change on either side could shake things up a lot.

If things were to change dramatically and Ukraine started to lose and Russian forces swept forward again, Ukraine might accept a cease fire to give them time to build a new defensive line. But we haven't seen any scenario that looks like that is a possibility since the first hours of the war. It would take a really really dramatic change of fortune before Ukraine could be desperate enough to accept a cease fire that didn't come with a guarantee of NATO membership.

Meanwhile Russia is extremely unlikely to accept any settlement that leaves Ukraine under the protection of NATO. For them that's the worst case scenario. Preventing it was one of their stated aims of their second invasion, and a probable reason for their first invasion in 2014. They might accept a settlement where unoccupied Ukraine gets to join NATO and they get to retain some control over occupied Ukraine, but only if it was to stave off both the occupied territory and the whole of Ukraine getting filled with NATO personnel and equipment. Unless they face a complete loss and complete expulsion they won't do it. But by the time Russia is negotiating to prevent complete expulsion, Ukraine will have lost the incentive to cede anything.

It's a mutually exclusive situation. Ukraine might accept a settlement brokered by the west if they had given up hope of surviving without it. Russia will only accept a western brokered settlement if they have given up hope of retaining what they have invaded and need to prevent additional losses within Russia. I don't see any condition where the two sides can walk away from the negotiating table happy. We are down to merely debating how long the war will last, if it will be a forever war that continues for decades, or if one side will crumble and the negotiations just be a formal capitulation.


Maybe part of the reason that Russia is continuing to attempt to hold the territory they have occupied, despite the damage to their economy and the erosion of their reputation as a world power, is because as long as the war continues, Ukraine can't join NATO. At this point for the Russian leader the war may have turned into a delaying tactic to prevent NATO setting up bases right on their border. It's not like the economic gain from occupying the eastern oblasts makes up for the cost of defending the land they grabbed. They've got more cash going out than going in. But of course they are stuck with the option of throwing good money after bad, because there is no way for them to extricate themselves and they are praying for a miracle.

At this point it probably has almost nothing to do with them seeing any room to win the war, and much more to do with them retaining power in Russia. If all the positive news we hear is accurate, they can't win, because their supply lines are too vulnerable. How the hell will they supply their personnel if the overland railway and the Kerch Strait bridge get cut? So the guys leading Russia are still fighting, just to avoid looking weak to their internal rivals. But Ukraine is steadily getting closer to where they can meet the victory conditions. I can't even think of what strategic goals would be victory conditions for Russia. They will probably destroy the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant on their way out, but that's just spite. Neither destroying it or retaining it is a victory condition. It has no strategic importance unless they also retain the territory to which it supplied power. It doesn't even have strategic importance to Russian until it is safe enough for them to generate money from the occupied territory, and it is hard to do that while the territory is under constant attack.

Putin likely has a maximum of fifteen years as leader of Russia. He's seventy years old. By the time he is eighty-five he's going to look old. Someone like Biden can get away with looking old better than Putin can because he's not a strongman; he's a politician who got where he did without intimidating anyone or throwing anyone out a window. But Putin has to look like the strongest and meanest man in Russia or his control will crumble.

So perhaps Putin's endgame looks like hanging on and projecting an image of power until his health fails, or his security apparatus fails. As long as he doesn't show any willingness to concede anything to anyone, he's still in the game. He's probably using the same strategy both in Ukraine and Russia. There are no victory conditions for Putin in Russia either. He's won as much as he can win. He probably passed the point of there being any victory conditions for him, when his security apparatus failed so badly that he made the decision to invade.
posted by Jane the Brown at 7:31 AM on September 1, 2023 [5 favorites]

I don't see any condition where the two sides can walk away from the negotiating table happy.

Fully agree. Can envisage a situation where one side walks away happy, and the other side is happy to be able to walk away, though. It'll take a good deal more attrition to get anywhere near that, of course.
posted by Dysk at 7:37 AM on September 1, 2023 [3 favorites]

At the Balkan Meeting in Slovenia, the Prime Minister of Albania made fun of Putin.

One comment from Reddit: "Damn. Imagine world leaders publicly making fun of Putin a few years ago, before this war. By the leader of a small country. In front of TV cameras and an audience full of people. Laughing in his face."
posted by Stoneshop at 8:40 AM on September 1, 2023 [2 favorites]

Certainly more developments, though not necessarily pure attrition (at least, in lives). Running up against constraints that simply make the war untenable are possible.

Ukraine may have to manage fighting with a non-optimal hodge-podge of equipment, but their situation is improving. Russia, on the other hand, seems to be going in the other direction (after starting in a much worse position than was presumed).

Most dramatically illustrated by aviation. They can't replace much of what they lose, not just to hostilities but from it simply wearing out.

On the civilian side, it's been reported that Aeroflot has simply given up on having brakes on some Boeing 777s and Airbus 330/320/321s and is landing with only reverse thrust to stop the plane. Who knows what's being let go that isn't as obvious to observers and passengers.

The ruble's slide seems significant too, in terms of civilian life and war fatigue.


"We will stop bombing Moscow and return your POWs just as soon as you have all fucked off."

Send the kids back too.
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:45 AM on September 1, 2023 [3 favorites]

Stop treating the NATO excuse like it is anything real. NATO has been on Russia's border since its founding (Norway). Russia now has a vastly longer border with NATO than they did at the start of the war, and all they have done is continue to drain military resources from that border to use them in Ukraine. Russia is not afraid of NATO being on their border. What caused the war is that they view Ukraine as the natural slave of Russia, and they want to punish disobedience and exploit them as a colony, just like most of the rest of Russia outside of Moscow and St. Petersburg.

And for people still clinging to the NATO idea: if that was Russia's issue, then it was solved after 2014, because NATO was not going to let in a country at war with and occupied by Russia. Yet that did not stop them from full scale invasion. Russia has not been subtle about this people, Putin made a big speech about how they couldn't let Ukraine escape their grasp, oh I'm sorry 'slavic brotherhood and history', their propagandists have filled the airways with how Ukraine and the idea of Ukraine must be erased. It's not NATO. It was never NATO.
posted by tavella at 8:50 AM on September 1, 2023 [18 favorites]

In a YouTube video about cardboard drones the channel "Professor Gerdes Explains" cites a tweet from @k_sonin saying that the fact the Pskov airbase -- just a few miles from the NATO border -- was left completely undefended proves that it's not about NATO. If Russia was that concerned about NATO expansion/invasion surely they wouldn't have left an obvious route totally exposed.
posted by phliar at 9:11 AM on September 1, 2023 [2 favorites]

It's not NATO. It was never NATO.

From what I hear about Russian TV, the people there think it's about NATO. So even if NATO is purely a defensive force and nothing much has changed until the war triggered a bunch of new candidate members, if the right Russians think it's about NATO, it could be.

It seems like Putin hates what he fears, so he wants to annihilate it. I can see Putin being obsessed with NATO, the same way that he is obsessed with people like Litvinenko. Once you make him feel threatened he can't let it go. It eats away at him that he has enemies at his border, enemies that disrespect him...
posted by Jane the Brown at 9:33 AM on September 1, 2023 [1 favorite]

There are hundreds of thousands of reasons to negotiate as measured in the number of people who’ve died or been permanently disabled and the ones that will continue until this horror show ends, and don’t for get the kids that Russia has basically taken as hostages.

No one is going to concede anything in public before a deal is basically done.
posted by interogative mood at 9:42 AM on September 1, 2023

Video of Ukrainian drones destroying airplanes at Pskov airport.

It looks like something from WW2. Drone flies over, drops bomb, plane explodes. Would a military airbase not have a ton of radar and defenses against an attack like this?
posted by UN at 9:43 AM on September 1, 2023

If they want to believe that, they believe that, but if they want to believe some other thing they can equally believe that. Putin has explicitly stated the goal of the war is the genocidal erasure of Ukraine and making its territory an extension of Russia and that’s one of the few things I would believe him on.

At the end of the day the war is over if the Russians want it to be. Nobody else is in control of that.
posted by Artw at 9:43 AM on September 1, 2023 [5 favorites]

Again, those "enemies" have *always* been on Russia's border. And the border they are on has been vastly expanded since Putin started the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. If you are feeling threatened by that, you would put more military power there. Putin did not; instead they are left almost empty.

And to clarify: there is a difference between fearing Ukraine joining NATO and the EU as an actual threat to Russia, and being angry about it because your slave is thinking and acting for themselves. NATO is not the threat; they are instead the freedom Ukraine seeks, and that Russia seeks to deny them. Now of course the "realists" love that, because they indeed think that Ukraine (and much of eastern europe) is rightfully the possession of Russia. But I would hope that anyone posting on Metafilter would not deny the right of countries to choose their own friendships.
posted by tavella at 9:46 AM on September 1, 2023 [4 favorites]

NATO would deny Russia's imperial aspirations, not its security interests. So in a way, it is about NATO — just not how Russia portrays it.

That said, Russia's annexation of Crimea happened in response to Ukraine making friendly agreements with the European Union, which Putin attempted but failed to stop. There wasn't really any real sign of Ukraine joining NATO at that time afaik. In other words I believe the war was waged more due to Ukraine's desire to be closer to and join the EU.
posted by UN at 9:59 AM on September 1, 2023 [6 favorites]

The drones are made of cardboard and have the same radar signature of a bird. They fly about as fast as birds. They also had the element of surprise as they did t think they were in range of a Ukrainian attack. According to internet people who claim to be radar operators the software filters in the radar display are setup to filter out birds because they were designed to track airplanes and missiles.
On secondary impact of this attack is lots of Russian air defense systems shooting at birds and other radar noise.
posted by interogative mood at 10:04 AM on September 1, 2023 [3 favorites]

They come in low, too. Ground clutter and minimum altitude for radar contact are issues.

It's a challenge for the whole UAV logistics industry too. (Article on a Bell report to NASA.)

image from Bell’s SIO report shows an extreme example of radar ground clutter during the flight demonstration when the APT 70 was approximately 200 feet over the ground. The ghost radar tracks grew in number as the aircraft descended in altitude.
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:19 AM on September 1, 2023

It's not NATO. It was never NATO.

Ukraine grows significant percentages of the world's supply of corn and wheat. Maybe Putin saw what happened to Syria, and with climate changes accelerating (if only by seeing Siberia's forests burn) wants to shore up food security for Russia, to preserve rule in the homeland and extend global influence where those crops are sold. The recent step up of military attacks on non-military grain shipments seem relevant, in this regard.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 10:55 AM on September 1, 2023

From what I hear about Russian TV, the people there think it's about NATO. So even if NATO is purely a defensive force and nothing much has changed until the war triggered a bunch of new candidate members, if the right Russians think it's about NATO, it could be.

This is conflating excuses and reasons, and in the process is echoing Russian propaganda. Russia has used NATO as an excuse for the invasion since the beginning. But the reasons for the invasion have nothing to do with NATO. As has been pointed out many times, NATO has been on Russia's borders for a long time without it provoking anything; ditto the massive expansion of NATO caused by the conflict. Blaming this on "NATO" is buying and repeating Russian propaganda; there are better analyses available.
posted by Dip Flash at 11:07 AM on September 1, 2023 [6 favorites]

jason_steakums: Wow, they got that "drones dropping cluster munitions bomblets" idea implemented very quickly and effectively

Ukrainian drones have been dropping hand grenades, RPG warheads and just about anything that goes boom and can be lifted* by those drones from day one; cluster bomblets are just one more addition to their payload arsenal.

* and they have a number of octocopter drones that are able to lift an anti-tank mine plus half a dozen mortar ammo.
posted by Stoneshop at 11:38 AM on September 1, 2023

If I remember the immediate origins of Russia's aggression in 2014, this is mostly about money:

By gaining Crimea, Russia gains the Kerch Strait – a key route linking the Sea of Azov to the Black Sea. About five kilometres in length and 4.5 kilometres wide, the stretch of land links eastern Crimea to the Krasnodar region. By gaining the pathway, Russia is now in complete control of the Kerch-Yenikalskiy Canal, which allows larger vessels passage between the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov.

Furthermore, the new ownership means that Russia will have complete control of the entrance to the Volga, Europe’s largest river, allowing unhindered shipping access to Moscow and a pathway to the Caspian Sea.

Post hoc rationalizations about NATO or historical Russian sovereignty, etc., are propaganda to provide cover for seizing control of key waterways and ports. (Putin's a mob boss, it's always about money/power.)
posted by LooseFilter at 11:49 AM on September 1, 2023 [4 favorites]

The US has done a lot of upgrades to our air defense radars in the past few years out of concern for the UAV threat. This is part of the reason we have had all these UAP sightings and managed to detect and shoot down the Chinese balloon. The UAP’s are often party balloons, birds and random shit blowing around. Right now our pilots and air defense is just chasing these phantoms out of sight (except for the occasional OMG aliens media frenzy). Imagine though if Republicans get their way and start this ill advised war on Mexico.
posted by interogative mood at 2:11 PM on September 1, 2023 [2 favorites]

Blaming this on "NATO" is buying and repeating Russian propaganda; there are better analyses available.

posted by Dip Flash

I think you misunderstand me. If Russia is blaming NATO, and using is NATO's actions as an excuse it's like when incels say they have no choice but to commit rape because women don't give them sex voluntarily. I'm talking about Russia and Putin projecting things on NATO and being fixated on them. That's a big jump to be saying anyone outside the Russian echo chamber agrees with Putin that NATO is in any way at fault for defending against Russia. But I think it is probably that at least some Russians believe it's all NATO's fault the way that incels think it's all women's fault.

Bullies always think other people leading their own lives is an affront deliberately directed at them.
posted by Jane the Brown at 3:36 PM on September 1, 2023 [2 favorites]

The UAP’s are often party balloons, ... and random shit blowing around.

Shiiiit. Thanks interogative mood, that just *clicked* for me for things that look like they're doing 90G (arbitrarily chosen) maneuvers could just be high visible and radar reflectivity but actually relatively zero mass - and simple atmospheric turbulence at those altitudes that would toss a big sheet around unpredictably.
posted by porpoise at 6:16 PM on September 1, 2023

If I remember the immediate origins of Russia's aggression in 2014, this is mostly about money:

I figure its about the oil money and about having an export chain robust to sanctions in particular. However, this is not a sufficient explanation: sanction proof cash flows are only useful if you intend to do something terrible in the future. I'm not smart enough to know what that terrible thing is though.

I'm talking about Russia and Putin projecting things on NATO and being fixated on them. ... But I think it is probably that at least some Russians believe it's all NATO's fault

You seem to be applying a western democracy framing on Russia, but that doesn't work. Putin is not accountable to the people, jails anyone who might actually beat him in elections, and doubles term limits instead of honoring them. He controls the state media and they use NATO as a boogeyman against a population that has no alternate news source. "Maybe they've started to believe their own lies" sounds too optimistic to me. Putin is ex-KGB and knows full well how useful uncensored information is and how useful censorship was; this was part of what enabled his faction to take over post Soviet collapse.

However, corrupting the truth works both ways: in a system that habitually lies, its difficult for leadership to get true assessments. Embellished military readiness reports, fictitious espionage / covert assets content, to go with the usual optimistic data interpretations and risk analysis. China suffers the same problem -- GDP and population numbers are unreliable. They had to request the US embassy stop reporting air quality because it was contradicting their official numbers too often. But I can't quite call this a silver lining when it was likely a factor in the decision to invade in the first place.
posted by pwnguin at 7:39 PM on September 1, 2023 [2 favorites]

Nobel Foundation reverses decision to invite Russia to prize ceremony following backlash

The Nobel Foundation has U-turned on a controversial decision to invite the ambassadors of Russia, Belarus and Iran to the Nobel Prize award ceremony after facing widespread criticism. The foundation announced in a press release Saturday that ambassadors from the three countries would not be invited, after initially saying that it wanted to involve even those who did not share the values of the Nobel Prize.
posted by mediareport at 10:34 AM on September 2, 2023 [3 favorites]

The Guardian: ‘Everything is ahead of us’: Ukraine breaks Russian stronghold’s first line of defence

A vast minefield trapped Ukrainian troops for weeks as infantry sappers slowly cleared an assault route on foot. Russian troops behind it “just stood and waited for the Ukrainian army”, picking off vehicles with shells and drones, [Brig Gen Oleksandr Tarnavskiy] said.

But now that barrier has been crossed, Russians have been forced into manoeuvres and Ukrainians are back in their tanks and other armoured vehicles. In a sign that Moscow is feeling the pressure, it has redeployed troops to the area from frontlines inside occupied Ukraine – Kherson to the west and Lyman to the north-east – and also from inside Russia, he said.

“The enemy is pulling up reserves, not only from Ukraine but also from Russia. But sooner or later, the Russians will run out of all the best soldiers. This will give us an impetus to attack more and faster,” Tarnavskiy said. “Everything is ahead of us.”

posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 7:29 PM on September 2, 2023 [9 favorites]

This is the first time since I quit Twitter that I miss the place. It’s difficult to get clear info about what’s going on right now on the front from western media. If Ukraine has really breached through the first line of defense, and is assaulting the second or even third line, that would a huge development, but because of different terminology, it can be really difficult to know what’s going on (for instance, what in western armies is referred to as the first line of defense is thought of as the second line in Red Army-descended militaries).
posted by Kattullus at 12:43 AM on September 3, 2023 [1 favorite]

Telegram does a fair job:

• https://t.me/pilotblog
• https://t.me/Kyivpost_official
• https://t.me/V_Zelenskiy_official
• https://t.me/DIUkraine
• https://t.me/chrisO_wiki
• https://t.me/vitaliy_klitschko

posted by krisjohn at 1:29 AM on September 3, 2023 [2 favorites]

Pskov is about 100 miles by car from where I'm sitting right now. Around 80 by train. I was briefly dumb and naive in the 90s when I believed in the liberal democracy's end of history.

Russian propaganda only works - to the extent that it does - in the more distant "western" countries, around here the attitude is that anything said by Russia is lies. And I think I've said this before, but Russia's aggression has now so thoroughly demonstrated their weakness that nobody gives a fuck about the Russian threat anymore. I wish the war was over already. But one of its impacts is already here: Russia has shown conclusively that instead of being a world power it is an ineffectual piece of shit local country who will most likely get their ass handed to them by Estonia.
posted by Pyrogenesis at 2:23 AM on September 3, 2023 [11 favorites]

BBC: Threats, insults, and Kremlin 'robots': How Russian diplomacy died under Putin
posted by sebastienbailard at 3:22 AM on September 3, 2023 [1 favorite]

Regardless of how the different defensive lines are defined, it sounds like Ukrainians have breached the huge minefields. That'd be a really big deal because it allows them to move and maneuver and really put all that western and other modern hardware to work. All the work the Ukrainian military did to modernize it's doctrine should give them a much bigger advantage going forward.

I'm really hoping that in retrospect we'll look back on this moment where the roller coaster is just getting over that first big hill and tipping towards accelerating.

Slowly at first and then all at once with plenty of ups and downs, twists and turns to come but relentlessly plowing towards an inevitable conclusion.
posted by VTX at 7:46 AM on September 3, 2023

Kattullus: it can be really difficult to know what’s going on (for instance, what in western armies is referred to as the first line of defense is thought of as the second line in Red Army-descended militaries).

Looking at current situation maps the line of defense numbering used is most often Russian, even in Western reports (which are generally compiled referencing Ukrainian reports even as the base report is compiled independently). ISW for instance kind of makes this explicit by often quoting Ukrainian spokespersons regarding advances/breakthroughs, who then use Russian numbering to make clear what defensive line they're mopping up.
posted by Stoneshop at 7:49 AM on September 3, 2023

it doesn’t matter where you get your info, it’s difficult to know what’s happening at the front even if you’re russian or ukrainian intelligence. and if you’re reading about it online it’s not really information as much as another front in the war…
posted by dis_integration at 9:29 AM on September 3, 2023 [2 favorites]

I also 'miss' the updates on Twitter — to the point I set up a new fake account recently but dumped that too ... too much extreme right wing junk that gets recommended constantly.

Telegram has too many Russian oligarch connections that I inherently don't trust it. The founder's previous company was sold off to a sanctioned oligarch and then sold to the Kremlin, not exactly a great history if you look at actions, not words.

I signed up to reddit but mostly I see videos of things blowing up, not much analysis.

Got a Mastodon account but its... quiet. YouTube has good information but mostly I read on my commute and I don't want to watch videos...
posted by UN at 9:41 AM on September 3, 2023 [1 favorite]

Mastodon is quiet but seems to get the broad strokes right at a pace that's probably healthy (more like a once-daily scan than a firehose; for me that's a pro).
posted by mazola at 10:14 AM on September 3, 2023 [2 favorites]

There’s Ukraine War Bulletins and News , that may be a bit noisy though.
posted by Artw at 10:20 AM on September 3, 2023 [1 favorite]

RFERL: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said late on September 3 that he has decided to replace wartime Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov with Rustem Umerov, a Ukrainian politician of Crimean Tatar origin, in a surprising shake-up as Kyiv's forces press on with their counteroffensive against the Russian invasion.

Professor Olga Onuch gives a brief bio of Umerov on the Twitter.

Whatever else this might mean, it certainly signals that the liberation of Crimea is not up for negotiation. Would love to be a fly on the wall if any western politician/diplomat has the nerve to suggest that to a Tatar.
posted by Kabanos at 3:53 PM on September 3, 2023 [11 favorites]

If Reznikov was guilty of the graft, then he needed to go. Heard the oligarch, who supported / funded Zelenskyy's electoral campaign, was also arrested.

Unless I've missed something, Reznikov wasn't arrested, and they're not portraying this as "He was corrupt". On the contrary, he's being talked about as the probable next ambassador to the UK, which I've got to imagine is quite an important position for Ukraine at the moment.

I have read things saying that there is significant corruption in the military (and elsewhere), but I haven't seen anything saying Reznikov himself was a part of it (beyond "it happened on his watch"). I haven't followed this terribly closely, though.
posted by Flunkie at 12:36 PM on September 4, 2023 [1 favorite]

ISW's George Barros on X

Ukrainian infantry have reached the fighting positions near Verbove - the third and final layer in the tri-layered Surovikin line.

This GIF visualizes observed Ukrainian progress in newly available geolocated evidence from the past 24 hours.

posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 3:07 PM on September 4, 2023 [2 favorites]

Call it Twitter.

Elon deadnames his child. We can deadname his corporation.
posted by hippybear at 3:14 PM on September 4, 2023 [15 favorites]

Being a good person does not include bad actions towards bad people just because they do it.
posted by krisjohn at 7:17 PM on September 4, 2023 [1 favorite]

That’s highly debatable, but I think not here in a thread about a just war, of all places.
posted by Ice Cream Socialist at 7:49 PM on September 4, 2023 [2 favorites]

"Deadnaming a corporation" is not a bad action.
posted by Etrigan at 7:56 PM on September 4, 2023 [3 favorites]

In general I'm a supporter of calling people what they call themselves. It bypasses a lot of complicated questions and decision trees.

So I agree with calling it Twitter, since that's the url.


Also appreciate the folks keeping the thread still going as the tempo of news picks up..
posted by euphorb at 8:19 PM on September 4, 2023 [2 favorites]

Good gods, my quoting script is hard enough to keep working as is. I'm not going to change it now.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 8:26 PM on September 4, 2023

Mod note: A reminder to practice awareness when using terminology that has a very specific significance for folks of particular experiences. For example, using the term “deadnaming” outside of the context of Queer and Trans people’s experience can be trivializing to the experience of being deadnamed. Let’s find other ways to articulate our frustration/disgruntlement with Musk.
posted by travelingthyme (staff) at 8:39 PM on September 4, 2023 [8 favorites]

A few days ago, military economist Marcus Kreupp described the situation as following (loosely paraphrasing (as a non-military person I'm sure I'm not doing the best translation) from a long Q&A video, German language):

The Ukrainian forces are working to expand that pocket towards Tokmak.

Once Ukraine breaches the front in that area, he says Ukrainian reserves, especially heavy tank brigades (which have been waiting behind the lines for this operation to succeed since that failed attempt where we saw a number of disabled Leopard and Bradley tanks), will push through in the direction of the Sea of Azov.

Those main highways that pass through Tokmak will be open to Ukrainian forces. They are not mined or blocked because the Russians depend on them as their main logistics route to move troops and supplies.

Ukraine will still need to destroy Russian artillery which will be able to fire on those highways. He expects however that things will move fast: Russia will no longer be able to move people nor supplies to defend fortifications in the huge territory between Tokmak, Kherson and the border to occupied Crimea. He predicts Russia to retreat as they recognize holding that territory is untenable.

Once Ukraine is outside of Crimea, he expects that the war in that region including Crimea will be, for Russia, strategically lost.

[Somewhat infamously he predicted that strategic loss earlier this year, based largely on attrition rates iirc, to happen by October. So it'll be interesting how that prediction holds up.]
posted by UN at 8:48 PM on September 4, 2023 [5 favorites]

Michael Kofman and Rob Lee have written an in-depth analysis of the whole Ukrainian offensive, up to today, and it’s illustrated with very detailed maps by Pasi Paroinen, of the Black Bird OSINT group. The whole thing is worth reading, but here are the paragraphs about the main battle, right now.

The coming weeks are likely to prove decisive, as the battle hinges on available reserves and resolve. Despite recent advances in Staromaiors’ke and Urozhaine, Ukrainian forces are approximately 11 kilometers from the main defensive line along the Velika Novosilka axis, and it appears they have shifted resources to the Orikhiv axis instead. Though the distance to the “main lines” is a less relevant metric than the attrition being inflicted. What matters most is where Russian forces choose to concentrate and man their defense.

Although the 82nd and 46th Brigades achieved results, they were enabled by other units having spent weeks of fighting over those areas. Russian forces appear worried and have also deployed reserves. There are indications that Russia has transferred elements from the airborne force’s 7th and 76th Air Assault Divisions, as well as other forces, to that axis. The Russian military likely made this decision after Ukraine began to commit its reserve units, which reduced the risk of a strong Ukrainian advance elsewhere. Ukraine’s recent advances appear to be largely conducted by dismounted units, but to achieve momentum, they will need to employ mechanized formations again. This will put to the test whether weeks of attrition, establishing an advantage in fires, and deep strikes against bridges, logistics, and command-and-control nodes have set the necessary conditions for a Ukrainian breakthrough. In particular, Ukraine’s ability to effectively suppress and degrade Russian anti-tank capabilities could prove critical.

For Russia, the problem is straightforward: The entrenchments matter most if they’re manned. If their forces are degraded, and they lack reinforcements, these defenses will slow down but not impede Ukraine’s advance. It also depends whether Russia chooses to employ its reserves for counterattacks or to man the multiple lines of defense. For Ukraine, the primary challenge is not in breaching Russian lines, but rather doing so with sufficient forces in reserve to exploit that breach toward its objectives.

Russia’s Defense: Doctrine or Folly?

Despite appearances, Russia is not executing a true defense in depth. Russian forces are set up for such a defense, which enables a defender to degrade the attacker as they advance, trading space for attrition. They have constructed three defensive belts, minefields in between, communication trenches, and hardened defensive points in between. This was likely Gen. Sergei Surovikin’s vision (and his name provides the nickname for these defensive lines). But Surovikin is not in charge. Gen. Valeriy Gerasimov, the chief of general staff, is. He has consistently demonstrated poor military judgment and a weak understanding of what Russian forces can and cannot do, most recently in the failed Russian winter offensive. Russian forces have chosen to defend forward of the Surovikin line, concentrating their efforts on holding the first line of defense and the towns that anchor it. To be clear, the first line does feature extensive entrenchments, including tunnel networks. The follow on lines include machine dug trenches, anti-tank ditches, dragons teeth, and likely more minefields. The Russian decision to defend forward has favored Kyiv because it allowed Ukrainian artillery to attrite the Russian units deployed.

In Russia, the strategic concept of “active defense,” often mentioned by Valeriy Gerasimov, encourages maneuver defense and counterattack. This may be what we are seeing from Russian forces now. Essentially a defensive-offense, active defense envisions persistent engagement of an opponent rather than emphasizing a static or positional defense. Russia’s defense has featured regular counterattacks, which also depleted its armor, and available maneuver forces. The Russian military is rotating troops through the front line, but that force has been steadily worn down. On the other hand, Ukraine has also expended considerable combat power fighting in the first line of Russian defenses before reaching the other defensive belts and entrenchments. The course of this battle is therefore increasingly determined by who has the most reserves available and who pursues the best force management strategy over time.

Russian forces have consistently counter attacked during Ukraine’s counteroffensive. While in some cases they have been able to retake towns seized by Ukrainian units or prevent consolidation, their strategy is aggressive and costly. Given the dearth of forces available, the Russian approach has been aggressive and overconfident. Russian units are often fighting in front of their best fortifications instead of leveraging them for advantage. They can fall back if they are put in a disadvantageous position, but this approach has major tradeoffs: If Russian forces suffer too much attrition in holding forward positions or counterattacking to return them, they risk leaving their forces too weak to properly defend the rest of the defensive line. Hence, an “active” approach has stymied Ukraine’s advance, but at the cost of depleting the Russian defense forward of what were considered the ‘main lines.’ Consequently, solely looking at whether Ukraine has broken through the defensive lines is the wrong way to evaluate this offensive’s progress. Most of the fighting, and the attrition, has taken place at the first Russian line of defense, which Ukraine has pressed through at Robotyne and near Verbove.

I’d recommend clicking though, if only for the maps, but the whole essay is worth reading.
posted by Kattullus at 5:14 AM on September 5, 2023 [10 favorites]

RUSI: Stormbreak: Fighting Through Russian Defences in Ukraine’s 2023 Offensive (web abstract):

Another limiting factor in Ukrainian tactical operations is staff capacity at battalion and brigade level. Training of staff would significantly assist Ukrainian forces. This will only be helpful, however, if training is built around the tools and structure that Ukraine employs, rather than teaching NATO methods that are designed for differently configured forces. There is also a critical requirement to refine collective training provided to Ukrainian units outside Ukraine so that Ukrainian units can train in a manner closer to how they fight. This requires regulatory adjustment to allow for the combination of tools that are highly restricted on many European training areas.

Russian forces have continued to adapt their methods. Some of these adaptations are context specific, such as the increased density of minefields, from a doctrinal assumption of 120 metres to a practical aim to make them 500 metres deep. Other adaptations are systemic and will likely have a sustained impact on Russian doctrine and capability development. The foremost of these is the dispersal of electronic warfare systems rather than their concentration on major platforms, a shift to application-based command and control tools that are agnostic of bearer, and a transition to a dependence on more precise fires owing to the recognised inability to achieve the previously doctrinally mandated weight of imprecise fire given the threat to the logistics sustaining Russian guns. It is vital that Ukraine’s partners assist the country’s preparations for winter fighting, and subsequent campaign seasons now, if initiative is to be retained into 2024.

The full report (28 pages, pdf):

Given the lead-times involved, one question that should dominate the
thinking of Ukraine’s international partners today is the dynamics of
winter warfare. Last year, Russia prepared its troops poorly for
winter conditions and suffered disproportionately as a
result. Ukraine’s current offensive operations are likely to continue
into the autumn, but the question should be asked whether actions can
be taken now to maintain the pressure through the winter. It is highly
likely that Russia will hope that the winter will cause Ukraine to
pause its offensive efforts, while Moscow will likely return to the
attempted destruction of energy and reticulation infrastructure across
Ukraine. It is now clear that the conflict will protract. It is
therefore important that Ukraine’s international partners invest now
to give Ukraine protracted advantages. Failure to make timely
adjustment to support will come at a heavy price in 2024.

posted by kmt at 5:35 AM on September 5, 2023 [4 favorites]

And worrying news on the European political front…

With one stroke, Slovakia could soon become Russia’s newest ally by John Kampfner writing in the Guardian. Excerpt:

Then came Fico, a prototype populist. As prime minister between 2006 and 2010 and then 2012 to 2018, he fulminated against the west for his domestic audience, but was careful not to go against the international status quo.

What happened next shook Slovakia to its core. Ján Kuciak, a young investigative journalist, was looking into corruption involving Fico’s government, EU subsidies and the Italian mafia. On 21 February 2018, Kuciak and his fiancee, Martina Kušnírová, an archaeologist, were gunned down by contract killers at their flat outside the capital.

In the biggest demonstrations since the Velvet Revolution that brought down communism in 1989, tens of thousands of Slovaks took to the streets to express their fury. Eventually, Fico and his entire cabinet were forced to resign – not before he accused the US billionaire George Soros of fomenting the protests.

Hope arose from the horror. In June 2019, an environmental activist and lawyer, Zuzana Čaputová, sensationally won the presidential election. Months later a new government was voted in, presaging change. Within weeks of taking office, however, the pandemic began, and so did its troubles. Slovakia has had four prime ministers in the past four years. Successive coalitions have come and gone, struggling to cope with Covid, inflation, the energy crisis and the war. The last administration collapsed in December amid much infighting, and the country has been treading water since.

Cue a remarkable return for Fico. In a copy of Orbán, he spent the time in opposition moving further to the right, denouncing “Ukrainian fascists” and railing against the decision by the Slovak government to ship whatever weapons it had to Ukraine. He then called Čaputová an “American agent” and, in an echo of Donald Trump, has described recent arrests of senior intelligence chiefs as a “police-led coup”. It has been reported there are up to 2,000 Facebook pages sharing anti-western propaganda, with Čaputová warning of an “information storm” of political denunciations from the right, supported by Russia. Ominously, she has had enough and will not stand for a second term.

Fico’s party, Smer-SD, is ahead of the other parties in the polls. I spent an hour with its vice-chair, sitting on a terrace outside parliament. Ľuboš Blaha frames Russia’s conflict with the west less in military terms and more as a culture war. “We see it as a proxy war of the United States against Russia on Ukrainian land,” he says. “The issue isn’t about Russia and democracy. It is about Russia protecting their cultural, national identity against this liberal mania in the west.”

posted by Kattullus at 5:55 AM on September 5, 2023 [5 favorites]

Kattullus, thanks for that analysis! For me, this was the most important line:

Taken together, Western industrial and military potential greatly exceeds Russia’s, but without the political will, potential alone will not translate into results.

posted by kmt at 6:06 AM on September 5, 2023 [4 favorites]

Reuters: Cuba uncovers human trafficking of Cubans to fight for Russia in Ukraine

The statement from Cuba's foreign ministry gave few details, but noted the trafficking ring was operating both within the Caribbean island nation, thousands of miles from Moscow, and in Russia.

"The Ministry of the Interior...is working on the neutralization and dismantling of a human trafficking network that operates from Russia to incorporate Cuban citizens living there, and even some from Cuba, into the military forces participating in war operations in Ukraine," the Cuban government statement said.

posted by achrise at 7:00 AM on September 5, 2023 [2 favorites]

Estonia has supported Ukraine the most proportionally to their GDP. The prime minister, Kaja Kallas, has been riding the war in Ukraine to high popularity numbers, both domestically and internationally.

Turns out her husband has made millions upon millions in trade with Russia during the war, supposedly under trade embargo.

This is just your daily reminder that capitalism has not changed one iota. Neither have politicians.
posted by Pyrogenesis at 2:48 AM on September 6, 2023 [6 favorites]

In case anyone needs all the sordid details.
posted by Pyrogenesis at 3:02 AM on September 6, 2023 [6 favorites]

NATO does not see indication of intentional Russian attack on Romania after Romania claims parts of possible Russian drone fell on its territory.

This line NATO is not crossing is only going to get thinner.
posted by krisjohn at 1:56 AM on September 7, 2023

Bit of old news, but remember the guy who brought over a Russian helicopter to the Ukrainians on the same day Prigozhin kicked the bucket? Ukrainian tv aired an interview with him this week. No mention of monetary reward, but confirmation that his family was discreetly smuggled out and mention that military pilots can't resign before their contracts are up - apparently he was threatened with being shipped to the front as an infantryman if he refused to fly combat missions. The guy's a second generation decorated pilot, so hopefully some more Russian military professionals watch that interview and get to thinking.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 11:31 AM on September 7, 2023 [3 favorites]

CNN is reporting that Musk turned off Starlink in Ukraine specifically to thwart an assault on Crimea, according to Isaacson’s book:

Elon Musk secretly ordered his engineers to turn off his company’s Starlink satellite communications network near the Crimean coast last year to disrupt a Ukrainian sneak attack on the Russian naval fleet … Musk’s decision, which left Ukrainian officials begging him to turn the satellites back on, was driven by an acute fear that Russia would respond to a Ukrainian attack on Crimea with nuclear weapons

posted by autopilot at 1:16 PM on September 7, 2023 [1 favorite]

Look after Mr Musk. See that some harm comes to him.
posted by krisjohn at 6:20 PM on September 7, 2023 [8 favorites]

New developments on Russia’s human trafficking operation in Cuba posted here up thread.

Cuban authorities said they had arrested 17 people on charges related to a ring of human traffickers that allegedly lured young Cuban men to serve in the Russian military amid the Ukraine conflict.

Cuba earlier this week revealed authorities were working to "neutralize and dismantle" the network, which it said operated both on Cuban soil and in Russia.

Prosecutor Jose Luis Reyes said those involved in the scandal could be punished with up to 30 years in prison, a life sentence or the death penalty, depending on the severity and type of crimes, which range from human trafficking, fighting as a mercenary and hostile action against a foreign state.
posted by UN at 2:23 AM on September 8, 2023 [4 favorites]

Refugee update: Warsaw University did a big detailed survey of adult war refugees in Poland. Only 10% of them want to stay long term. Half want to go back as soon as the war is over, 16% may stay a while longer, the rest aren't sure.

About half of them are in work (including 9% with their own businesses), 10% are studying full time, 9% are retired. Half the respondents say that their standard of living is lower in Poland than it was in Ukraine, while a quarter think they're doing better, but only half say their revenues are enough to maintain their lifestyle. Half the respondents can't afford all medicines (which admittedly are expensive in Poland, though nowhere near US levels).

Everyone appreciates Polish aid (not one negative answer) and most refugees appreciate Poles more than before they came here. 92% say they feel safe in Poland.

Unfortunately in other surveys thanks to the right wing in power stoking anti-immigrant feelings before next month's election (only to get caught in a visa payola scheme themselves) the favourable public opinion of Ukrainian immigrants in the eyes of Poles has fallen from 80 to 67%.

(The Ukrainian girls I met in the Kashebian Chinese market last year still work there and their Polish is now great, if Kashebian inflected.)
posted by I claim sanctuary at 7:25 AM on September 8, 2023 [7 favorites]

So, if that's to be believed, he had a US citizen maliciously sabotaging a foreign nation's military efforts, did I get that right?

How the hell hasn't the Logan Act been used to charge him yet?
posted by sotonohito at 11:24 AM on September 8, 2023 [2 favorites]

The DOJ isn’t setup and doesn’t have a culture of going after the wealthy until their crimes affect the wealthy. This is why Elizabeth Holmes is in jail and none of the people who created the subprime lending crisis, nor the Sackler’s OxyContin drug pushing, nor even Donald Trump.
posted by interogative mood at 12:29 PM on September 8, 2023 [3 favorites]

How the hell hasn't the Logan Act been used to charge him yet?

To be in violation, the Chancellor of spaceports must be negotiation behind States back. On this he just merely acted the coward though I think someone called him up and have him the what for. Fucker can't shut things down because he is scared..
posted by clavdivs at 1:39 PM on September 8, 2023

He’s currently pissy because of this, though uncharacteristically for his recent streak he just responded with a petulant “what 63 items?” rather than blaming the Jews.
posted by Artw at 1:52 PM on September 8, 2023

Surprising that he didn't offer to throw in another 25 items.
posted by Etrigan at 3:36 PM on September 8, 2023

I'm not a Musk fan, but SpaceX has every right to do with StarLink what it wants.
posted by Pendragon at 3:51 PM on September 8, 2023

Well after this incident StarLink is now under contract to provide service, so they can do whatever they want, under limitations of their now standing contract.

They had to strong-arm Musk into the contract because he wanted to be able to ply his whims, as you said, with every right to do what he wants. But he can't anymore.
posted by hippybear at 4:04 PM on September 8, 2023 [3 favorites]

I still say nationalize.
posted by Artw at 4:22 PM on September 8, 2023 [8 favorites]

I still say nationalize.

Much of what Musk has "developed" should be nationalized. SpaceX, the Tesla charging circuit, StarLink... for fuck's sake, Twitter should be nationalized as a bulwark of the 4th Estate.

But we don't live in a country where nationalization happens often if at all. We haven't even figured out railroads yet.
posted by hippybear at 4:26 PM on September 8, 2023 [2 favorites]

Fucker only got where he did by misappropriating public funds, we should own all this shit already.
posted by Artw at 4:29 PM on September 8, 2023 [3 favorites]

It feels like every discussion thread I follow these days derails into talking about Musk, like a mutation of Godwin's Law. Can we perhaps keep this more directly focused on Ukraine? Thanks.
posted by Insert Clever Name Here at 5:39 PM on September 8, 2023 [7 favorites]

I'm not a Musk fan, but SpaceX has every right to do with StarLink what it wants.

Really? What if SpaceX decided it wanted to broadcast snuff films? Would that be fine so long as it emanates from Galt's Orbit?

Anyway, if nationalizing them is unpalatable maybe we can just invent some new taxes for companies engaged in spacefaring enterprises that want to park a huge number of satellites in orbits they don't own, and dump all the problems with that on the commons and future generations.
posted by snuffleupagus at 6:14 PM on September 8, 2023 [6 favorites]

Can we perhaps keep this more directly focused on Ukraine?

While we should avoid this thread from devolving into total Musk nonsense, a small amount of discussion about him is warranted here as this news of the SpaceLink shutoff during an offensive is a part of this war.
posted by hippybear at 6:47 PM on September 8, 2023 [1 favorite]

Musk's has repeatedly complained about giving Starlink service to Ukraine 'for free', meanwhile his own president at SpaceX exposes his lies (from the CNN article linked above):

Gwynne Shotwell, Musk’s president at SpaceX, was livid at Musk’s reversal, according to Isaacson.

“The Pentagon had a $145 million check ready to hand to me, literally,” Isaacson quotes Shotwell as saying. “Then Elon succumbed to the bullshit on Twitter and to the haters at the Pentagon who leaked the story.”

It's not uncommon to see people defend billionaires making unilateral policy decisions of this magnitude because, no problem, it's their stuff or whatever .... I don't even know where to begin. It's like someone proposing a dive into the nice cool waters below, but it's just concrete down there. Thanks but no thanks, I'll stay over here as far away from the edge of that brutal dystopian oligarchy as I can get. Yikes.
posted by UN at 10:50 PM on September 8, 2023 [7 favorites]

If you need to cleanse your palate of the unpleasant taste of Musk's verbal garbage, here are some beautiful, if painful, words by Kateryna Yakovlenko:

My World Stands on Pillars

She is editor-in-chief of Suspilne Kultura. The link above is to Kate Tsurkan's english translation for online literary magazine Apofenie.
posted by Kabanos at 7:12 AM on September 9, 2023 [6 favorites]

ABC(USA): US likely to send long-range ATACMS missiles to Ukraine for the first time: Officials

"They are coming," said one official who had access to security assistance plans. The official noted that, as always, such plans are subject to change until officially announced.

A second official said the missiles are "on the table" and likely to be included in an upcoming security assistance package, adding that a final decision has not been made. It could be months before Ukraine receives the missiles, according to the official.

posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 8:11 AM on September 9, 2023 [4 favorites]

> Gwynne Shotwell, Musk’s president at SpaceX, was livid at Musk’s reversal, according to Isaacson.

“The Pentagon had a $145 million check ready to hand to me, literally,” Isaacson quotes Shotwell as saying. “Then Elon succumbed to the bullshit on Twitter and to the haters at the Pentagon who leaked the story.”

holy shit though. i never, ever expected to see open dispute between shotwell and musk. this strikes me as a sign that spacex is either about to make like starship on 4/20 or else get taken over by the government, because i am certain the man who thinks he runs a launch company is going to be forever tantruming about the woman who runs a launch company contradicting him in public.
posted by bombastic lowercase pronouncements at 8:41 AM on September 9, 2023 [8 favorites]

If my choice here is Musk or Shotwell, count me in for Team Shotwell. But based on just what is contained in the article, I am reluctant to go all-in on that.

The pull quote reads to me like it boils down to "I'm pissed at Elon because we could have profited greatly from this war if not for him", without a hint of "I'm pissed at Elon because we could have significantly helped the right side in this war."

I understand that the two are not incompatible, and that maybe she was pissed at Elon for both reasons, and (if so) that would seem unobjectionable to me. But the entirety of what I know here is also not incompatible with "Dammit, Elon, we could've made $145 million just by helping kill some people!"

I'm not assuming that worst-case scenario, but I haven't been given any reason to assume the best-case one either. I would guess that the true scenario was probably somewhere in between the two... but where? Maybe on this side of morality, maybe on that side of morality. And so, again, I'm reluctant to go all-in for Team Shotwell.

That's not to say that the option would be Team Musk. I see the option instead as Team None of the Above.
posted by Flunkie at 3:13 PM on September 9, 2023 [2 favorites]

A shortage of land mines for deep, dense minefields forced Russian troops to put down irregular ones, creating new problems for Ukraine: report [insider]

"Essentially, the minefields got bigger but so did the space between the mines."
posted by porpoise at 10:27 PM on September 9, 2023

YLE News, the Finnish public broadcaster’s English language service, has an interesting article about what analysts can tell from satellite images of Russian military bases near the Finnish border. It has some interesting things about how the Russian military’s logistics are functioning. Here’s an excerpt:

Images reveal that a large gabled hall was built amid the cannons and tanks stored at the depot in early July. It was probably made using the same technique as the news structures in Alakurtti, but took longer to complete.

Eklund estimates that the new building measures about 50 by 25 meters, or about 1,250 square meters. The hall could accommodate, for example, about 50 armoured vehicles if parked densely. However, the Petrozavodsk structure is likely to be used for equipment maintenance.

In Eklund's view, the Petrozavodsk depot’s most important task at the moment is to refurbish and deliver equipment for the war against Ukraine. Many transport tanks, combat vehicles and artillery are stored at the site, enough to equip at least one motorised brigade of 4,000 soldiers.

Most of the equipment is stored in the open, making it easier to see what is happening there than at many other military sites.

[…]


The Petrozavodsk equipment is very old, so its condition is uncertain. It was collected from units in the region that were disbanded in the 1990s after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

As the war grinds on with Russia losing much of its newer equipment, it has had to deploy old equipment.

[…]

Eklund has determined from satellite images that the number of artillery weapons at the Petrozavodsk depot has been steadily decreasing since Russia began its full-scale attack on Ukraine just over a year and a half ago. Since the spring of 2022, about 10 batteries have disappeared from the area, most of them this year.

Since the stored batteries contained 12–18 artillery pieces each, well over 100 artillery pieces have already been sent to the front from Petrozavodsk, Eklund calculates.

The article has some really clear images, that show very well what the analysts looked at, as well as going into how Russia has reacted, militarily, to Finland and Sweden joining NATO. **Spoiler Alert** They’ve done nothing.
posted by Kattullus at 3:38 AM on September 10, 2023 [6 favorites]

And so, again, I'm reluctant to go all-in for Team Shotwell.

I don't think that the quote is interesting as an example of Shotwell's good moral judgement. It's a useful insight into what was happening behind the scenes at an American company providing a crucial service to Ukraine's defense.

Musk's line about Starlink being his charity project to Ukraine was picked up by the media with hardly any push back or critical questioning. Now we know. I hope journalist refrain from repeating his lies verbatim in the future, but I'm not going to hold my breath.

I mean, Musk consults with Putin directly to makes his decisions on Starlink, then he makes up stories to make it sound like it's about the money. Pretty messed up if you ask me.
posted by UN at 3:43 AM on September 10, 2023 [4 favorites]

Putin Promotes General With Eye for Attacking Eastern Europe

Andrey Mordvichev sounds like a fantasist, honestly. Which probably helps him these days.

Interestingly he’s been reported dead previously, maybe next time it happens it will stick.
posted by Artw at 6:07 AM on September 10, 2023

The pull quote reads to me like it boils down to "I'm pissed at Elon because we could have profited greatly from this war if not for him", without a hint of "I'm pissed at Elon because we could have significantly helped the right side in this war."

Remember that a large part of her job is steering Musk, so I'm not surprised to hear that kind of argument from her.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 8:49 AM on September 10, 2023

OK, I will. And you remember that a large part of her job is accumulating obscene amounts of money, so I'm not surprised to hear that kind of argument from her.
posted by Flunkie at 11:04 AM on September 10, 2023

Swedish company Satcube provides satellite internet terminals for Ukraine

Ukraine will receive satellite communications aid from the Swedish company Satcube. It will send around 100 of its portable satellite internet terminals to Ukraine, the company’s CEO, Jakob Kallmer, told Swedish media. Germany will fund the aid. It will bolster Ukraine’s internet connection, including in the military, in addition to already used Starlink terminals.

posted by Mitheral at 5:39 PM on September 10, 2023 [7 favorites]

WSJ: Ukraine Expects to Fly F-16s in Combat This Winter

Based on initial assessments, Ukrainian officials now believe that with American training expected to begin this month or next, a handful of Ukrainian fighter pilots could be ready to go as early as February, Ukrainian and U.S. officials said. The U.S. could train experienced, English-proficient Ukrainian pilots in as little as five months, a group of likely fewer than 10 pilots for now, according to Ukrainian assessments.

posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 8:12 PM on September 10, 2023 [2 favorites]

Russia is trying to get to the bottom of why stored equipment condition was worse than expected.
posted by Harald74 at 8:41 AM on September 12, 2023 [2 favorites]

Swedish sources claim that they're looking into consequences of sending JAS-39 Gripen (Gryphon) to Ukraine.
posted by Harald74 at 8:44 AM on September 12, 2023 [1 favorite]

Hopefully the consequences include more Russian goodwill gestures.

The Gripen seems to have a lot of advantages over the F-16 in terms of suitability for operations in Ukraine. Does anyone know how it stacks up against the F-16 or the Russian planes it's likely to encounter in Ukraine in terms of combat capabilities?

I've been thinking a lot about this twitter thread which was linked in an earlier MeFi discussion. It argues that though the F-16 is probably an improvement over Ukraine's existing planes, and provides some new capabilities in terms of defenses against cruise missiles and drones and the ability to fire the AGM-158 JASSM cruise missile, its still at a significant disadvantage compared to Russian MiG-31s and Su-35s armed with the R-37 air-to-air missile, especially the older models of F-16s which will be provided to Ukraine, at least initially, which have antiquated radar systems.

I am hoping that the provision of these older F-16s is just a prelude to providing more, newer, and more capable models in the medium term future as Ukraine gains familiarity and skill in operating the F-16. However I am also concerned that foot dragging by the US and other western countries will delay that possibility for a long time. I think its time for me to write another letter to my Congresspeople and the President.

If the Gripen could provide a more significant threat to Russian air power than the F-16, and sooner, that would be a big boost.
posted by Reverend John at 10:57 AM on September 12, 2023

The Gripen has the Meteor A2A missile with 200 km range. It's at least a major improvement on current missiles in the Ukrainian inventory, but I don't know how it stacks up to the R-37 in real-life conditions. It's also not given that it will be delivered together with the aircraft if it comes to that.
posted by Harald74 at 11:20 AM on September 12, 2023

Elizabeth Warren Demands Probes of Elon Musk, SpaceX After Ukraine Revelations
posted by Artw at 1:23 PM on September 12, 2023 [9 favorites]

Sevastapol’s dry dock just went kaboom. A diesel electric submarine (kilo class) and a Ropucha Class landing ship were reportedly undergoing repairs there based on recent satellite photos.
posted by interogative mood at 9:23 PM on September 12, 2023 [5 favorites]

The jury is still out on what's the worst blow in this; losing a landing ship and a modern sub or tying up the dry dock for ages while they clear the wreckage.
posted by Harald74 at 7:19 AM on September 13, 2023 [2 favorites]

There was apparently a suspicious starlink outage during the attack.
posted by Artw at 7:38 AM on September 13, 2023 [2 favorites]

Incompetent or malicious? It's so hard tell tell with Musk.
posted by Mitheral at 7:51 AM on September 13, 2023

/r/NonCredibleDefense/

> m113lover - 4h
> Wait. What happened this time?

BeBrokeSoon - 2h
Ukies discovered a novel method of detecting near silent diesel boat.

posted by sebastienbailard at 8:26 AM on September 13, 2023

The ships seem to have either had ammunition on them or it was stored nearby if reports of continued secondary explosions for hours afterwards are correct.

The loss of the dry dock is probably the most significant part of this. Russian ships are build like absolute garbage and need a lot of maintenance to keep them from sinking.

My amateur metal worker /blacksmith understanding is that the Russian ships suffer from bad steel, badly cut and badly welded together. This leads to a need to pull the ships into dry dock regularly and patch things up to keep them from having their fronts fall off. The tldr reason is steel gets flexed by the stress of the waves the steel work hardens and cracks. Higher quality builds have increased lifespans; low quality late Soviet/Russian ships go back for repairs a lot to have bad metal cut out and patched as best as possible with filler and paint covering up the fact that they are rustier than my high school shitbox used ford fiesta after too many winters on salty roads. Some bad welding, a lot of bondo and a few rattle cans of paint got me past the safety inspection. Remember if the car only has thee cylinders firing consistently you save on gas :-).
posted by interogative mood at 9:45 AM on September 13, 2023 [2 favorites]

Remember if the car only has thee cylinders firing consistently you save on gas :-).

I had a 3-cylinder Geo Metro that got nearly 50mpg. It couldn't go faster than about 65mph, but it was great on fuel.
posted by hippybear at 9:59 AM on September 13, 2023

Incompetent or malicious? It's so hard tell tell with Musk.

The outcome is the same either way and Musk being such a dipshit I assume it's malicious until proven otherwise. Even if it was just Musk's own incompetence and he can prove it, the dude has no excuse. With all the resources he has available he had every opportunity to tap into all the competence he could want. Or he could have asked the US state dept or the Ukrainian leadership and they'd have straightened him right the hell out.

It's a lot like banking regulations. Regulators don't give a shit if you're being racist on purpose or not, there are racist outcomes so fines and consent orders are based on that, intent be damned.
posted by VTX at 10:02 AM on September 13, 2023 [1 favorite]

Has a country without a navy ever been so successful on the sea? Just a few days ago, Ukrainians took over a drilling platform, defeating an attacking Russian jet from their rubber boats (!).

Is this the first time a submarine has been destroyed since what, WW2 maybe?

They've piloted at least two cargo ships out of the Black Sea, defying Russia's blockade.

What's next?
posted by UN at 10:07 AM on September 13, 2023 [1 favorite]

Let's hope, more of the same.
posted by Windopaene at 10:17 AM on September 13, 2023 [2 favorites]

Add a "Tuna" boat to the list.

NEXTA on X

"In the northwestern part of the Black Sea, the Southern Defense Forces destroyed another enemy boat of the type KS-701 "Tuna"," the Ukrainian Navy said in a statement.

posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 11:39 AM on September 13, 2023

Incompetent or malicious? It's so hard tell tell with Musk.

porquenolosdos.gif
posted by Flunkie at 12:35 PM on September 13, 2023 [4 favorites]

Keep in mind that Russia has electronic warfare capabilities and could potentially be doing stuff to interfere with Starlink in areas it controls. It might also be that nothing happened to Starlink at all last night and this is just another rumor from some random person on twitter — Elon forced to deal with the consequences of his own actions.
posted by interogative mood at 12:46 PM on September 13, 2023 [1 favorite]

UN: Is this the first time a submarine has been destroyed since what, WW2 maybe?

AFAICT it's indeed the first Russian/USSR sub lost through enemy action since WW2. "Sunk" would be a bit of a misnomer though.

But they had about 16 sink, catch fire, or even catch fire and sink.
posted by Stoneshop at 2:29 PM on September 13, 2023 [2 favorites]

And that one burned down, fell over, and then sank into the swamp.
posted by hippybear at 2:38 PM on September 13, 2023 [4 favorites]

It might also be that nothing happened to Starlink at all last night and this is just another rumor from some random person on twitter

Well, Starlink’s service was definitely down last night. Their official twitter account posted about the outage, and Starlink customers all over the world were affected. Here’s some news coverage.
posted by mbrubeck at 3:37 PM on September 13, 2023 [1 favorite]

Is this the first time a submarine has been destroyed since what, WW2 maybe?

We all agreed to pretend 1968 never happened (although really, k-129 was probably an operator error).
posted by a robot made out of meat at 9:41 AM on September 14, 2023 [1 favorite]

a robot made out of meat: (although really, k-129 was probably an operator error)

It operated a bit too close to the Swordfish?
posted by Stoneshop at 12:40 PM on September 14, 2023

The British MoD on the Sevastopol attack:

(1/5) In the early hours of 13 September 2023, multiple missiles struck the Sevmorzavod shipyard within Russia’s Black Sea Fleet (BSF) Sevastopol naval base. The landing ship Minsk and Kilo 636.3 class submarine Rostov-na-Donu were hit while undergoing maintenance in dry docks.

(2/5) Despite the Russian Ministry of Defence downplaying the damage to the vessels, open-source evidence indicates the Minsk has almost certainly been functionally destroyed, while the Rostov has likely suffered catastrophic damage.

(3/5) Any effort to return the submarine to service is likely to take many years and cost hundreds of millions of dollars. There is a realistic possibility that the complex task of removing the wreckage from the dry docks will place them out of use for many months.

(4/5) This would present the BSF with a significant challenge in sustaining fleet maintenance.

(5/5) The loss of the Rostov removes one of the BSF’s four cruise-missile capable submarines which have played a major role in striking Ukraine and projecting Russian power across the Black Sea and Eastern Mediterranean.

posted by Harald74 at 2:32 AM on September 15, 2023 [8 favorites]

Senate Committee ‘Aggressively Probing’ Musk’s Starlink Ukraine Scandal:

The Senate Armed Services Committee has launched a probe into Elon Musk’s withholding of Starlink communications support from Ukrainian forces after revelations the billionaire may have stepped in to thwart an attempted attack on Russian ships. “The committee is aggressively probing this issue from every angle,” Sen. Jack Reed (D-RI) said in a statement.

posted by Mitheral at 8:14 AM on September 15, 2023 [2 favorites]

Maybe they'll send a sternly worded letter!
posted by sotonohito at 8:16 AM on September 15, 2023 [1 favorite]

Everyone knows that Elon Musk the human being is of zero value, and if he keeps on fucking with nation states, one of them will kill him and/or the other one will take his businesses away.
posted by seanmpuckett at 9:18 AM on September 15, 2023 [3 favorites]

🔥BREAKING🔥

⚡️Officially: The 3rd Assault Brigade liberated Andriivka, Russian 72nd Motorized Brigade - completely DESTROYED!
🔥As a result of a lightning operation, the Russian garrison of Andriivka was surrounded, cut off from the main forces and destroyed.

In two days, the Third Separate Assault Brigade eliminated:
- the chief of the brigade intelligence of the enemy;
- three commanders of battalion;
- and almost all the infantry of the 72nd brigade, together with officers and a significant amount of equipment.
As of now, the fighting continues, our units continue to consolidate in new positions. Therefore, about the specific numbers of 200x, 300x enemy and other most interesting details of the operation - later.
‼️The capture and holding of Andriivka is our way to a breakthrough on the right flank from Bakhmut, and the key to the success of all further offensives.
🫡We pay a high price for the results of these battles. And the blood of each of our fighters will be repaid only with blood.
posted by Meatbomb at 10:04 AM on September 15, 2023 [7 favorites]

New Lines Magazine:
In War’s Wake, Russia’s Ethnic Minorities Renew Independence Dreams
More than 200 groups call the country home, and the Ukraine conflict has prompted an unprecedented call for breakaway status
posted by Kabanos at 10:37 AM on September 15, 2023 [1 favorite]

The plot thickens: Russian General Surovikin visits Algeria with Defence Ministry delegation (Ukrainska Pravda)
posted by kmt at 10:54 AM on September 15, 2023

UKR intelligence now reporting that Ramzan Kadyrov - Chechen Head of State - has fallen into a coma.
posted by 1970s Antihero at 12:45 PM on September 15, 2023 [2 favorites]

He has not been looking all that well in recent photographs.
posted by Harald74 at 12:46 PM on September 15, 2023 [1 favorite]

Time to put the Dzhokhar Dudayev battallion on the train home?

Anyone have any insight as to how robustly his succession is set up?
posted by Harald74 at 12:47 PM on September 15, 2023

Mobiks will not be going home anytime soon, says Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Defense Andrei Kartapolov (paraphrased).
posted by Harald74 at 12:48 PM on September 15, 2023

I am guessing a lot of them will not be going home at all.
posted by Meatbomb at 12:55 PM on September 15, 2023 [5 favorites]

Kadyrov's doctor/health minister disappeared a few days ago. Rumor is that he was suspected of poisoning Kadyrov and was buried alive.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 1:45 PM on September 15, 2023

Of all the places in the Empire, the Chechens are the least interested in being Putin's personal suckboys. They remember. I would not be at all surprised to see instability there once Fucko is out if the picture.
posted by Meatbomb at 1:48 PM on September 15, 2023 [1 favorite]

Elkhan Suleymanov disappeared in October of last year. That was some Machiavellian shit.
posted by krisjohn at 3:20 PM on September 15, 2023

The Russians apparently have the need to repair another vessel, the Samum, but due to some earlier mishap there are no drydock facilities available.

The Russian navy has two of these; they're equipped with 8 launchers for the P-270 Moskit anti-ship missiles and a single 76 mm artillery installation.
posted by Stoneshop at 8:02 AM on September 16, 2023 [1 favorite]

Kadyrov's "right-hand man" appears to be Adam Delimkhanov (Адам Делимханов, Wikipedia, TG), who went 'missing’ after missile a strike, but who appears to be alive and well, despite no-one being interested enough to update his Wikipedia page. Delimkhanov and Kadyrov have strong financial links through Pavel Krotov, as reported by Proekt in this English article from Meduza.

However, officially, Kadyrov was the United Russia party's representative for totally normal elections where he received 99.7% of the vote. So I'm guessing his replacement will be decided in frank discussions between United Russia and men like Delimkhanov. (The cleaners will mop up the blood in the morning)

As this story develops, it might be worth checking out Kadyrov's Telegram channel, particularly the discussions in the comments, which are very much enabled and not obviously moderated.
posted by krisjohn at 4:57 PM on September 16, 2023 [4 favorites]

From that "totally normal elections" page, here are the times in office of all of the presidents and heads of the Chechen Republic:

1. Akhmad Kadyrov: 186 days
2. Sergey Abramov: 113 days
3. Alu Alkhanov: 2 years, 169 days
4. Ramzan Kadyrov: 16 years, 212 days

If Kadyrov really is at death's door, by my calculations, the next president or head of the Chechen Republic will be in office until about 2130.
posted by Flunkie at 5:18 PM on September 16, 2023 [2 favorites]

4-4-23.
'The claim about Kadyrov’s ill health originates with his émigré rival Akhmed Zakayev, who is hardly a credible source. No other sources have confirmed that information, and there are no signs that Kadyrov’s political trajectory is about to change course.'

and
The Mysterious Return of a Soviet Statue in Russia

posted by clavdivs at 9:25 PM on September 16, 2023 [3 favorites]

It does appear that the coma claims were slightly overstated.
posted by krisjohn at 3:51 AM on September 17, 2023 [1 favorite]

It will never not weird me out how much Kadyrov looks like half the dudes you run into in the Midwest, like you put that guy in Carhartt and he'd disappear in Iowa. Combined with the whole authoritarianism thing it really gives some disquieting vibes of what that kind of American Taliban world a lot of US authoritarians seem to want to build could look like, like this is Cody from down the road in his self-styled local warlord phase.
posted by jason_steakums at 7:41 AM on September 17, 2023 [3 favorites]

Holy smokes that is on point! That man definitely already has a deer stand setup in the woods in Wisconsin on the land of a farmer he knows. He wears his real-tree camouflage hunting jacket all through the winter.

Or in Minnesota around St. Cloud spitting tobacco into an empty pop bottle while talking about hockey. Still in the hunting jacket.

I'm in an outer rung suburb of the twin cities and I could find bars full of this guy just a bit farther out of town and more than a few locally.

Sorry, that was just scary accurate and couldn't help myself. Carry on.
posted by VTX at 3:00 PM on September 17, 2023 [2 favorites]

They don’t call them “caucasians” for nothing
posted by migurski at 3:33 PM on September 17, 2023 [3 favorites]

Except that while those dudes in Iowa and Idaho may share the Taliban's enthusiasm for oppressing women, queer people, etc. they completely lack the kind of mindset required to face down overwhelmingly superior forces in shalwar and sandals. Rather, they are accustomed to being a part of that overwhelmingly superior force.

Meanwhile, the armed forces (and at this point, the police forces) have plenty of dudes like them, plus all the rest of that overwhelming force.

That's why y'all qaeda mostly fantasizes about 'without rule of law' scenarios.
posted by snuffleupagus at 5:36 PM on September 17, 2023 [1 favorite]

Ukraine's decision on going all-in on defending Bakhmut earlier drew a lot of criticism, and it'll probably be discussed for decades to come, but ISW has weighed in on their take on the situation: Ukraine’s Operations In Bakhmut Have Kept Russian Reserves Away From The South

Ukrainian forces are celebrating the liberation of two small towns south of Bakhmut, but Ukraine’s entire effort first to defend and now to conduct counter-offensive operations around Bakhmut has been the subject of much unwarranted criticism. Ukraine's defensive and counteroffensive operations in the Bakhmut area since summer 2022 are an operationally sound undertaking that has fixed a large amount of Russian combat power that would otherwise have been available to reinforce Russian defenses in southern Ukraine. Elements of two of Russia’s four Airborne (VDV) divisions and three of Russia’s four VDV separate brigades are currently defending the Bakhmut area. This significant Ukrainian achievement has helped prevent Russia from creating a large mobile VDV operational reserve that could have been used to stop the main Ukrainian counteroffensive effort in Zaporizhia Oblast. Continued large-scale Ukrainian counteroffensive efforts around Bakhmut are necessary to keep Russian forces fixed in that area, as the likely recent redeployment of a detachment of one VDV separate brigade from near Bakhmut to southern Ukraine shows how eager the Russians are to recoup the combat power that the Ukrainian counteroffensive around Bakhmut is fixing there.

posted by Harald74 at 10:48 PM on September 17, 2023 [2 favorites]

(((Tendar))) on X

Somebody leaked footages of the Russian submarine “Rostov on Don”, which got hit by Ukrainian missiles (likely Stormshadow).

The bow of the submarine received a direct hit. Additionally, there is an impact at the starboard side.

Includes photos, which have everything besides the sub pixelated. I'm guessing that's to obscure when it was taken to protect the photographer.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 6:01 AM on September 18, 2023 [1 favorite]

Seems fine. I mean, it's meant to go underwater, isn't it? It'll manage that just fine, maybe even better than before.
posted by UN at 8:26 AM on September 18, 2023 [4 favorites]

Kyiv Independent: Russia’s southern mistake — Surovikin lines, Gerasimov tactics

Russian Army General Sergey Surovikin ordered the lines to be built when he was in charge of the war effort, and they still bear his name. However, the general fell from grace after the warlord Yevgeniy Prigozhin’s short and unsuccessful rebellion.

The command was handed back to Russian Army General Valeriy Gerasimov, head of Russia’s forces fighting against Ukraine.

Under his watch, the Russian troops did not appear to use Surovikin’s defense in depth as originally intended.

The Russians bunched up and held their ground, even trying to counterattack and recapture lost territory. Most attempts failed, Kivliuk said.

Often fighting in front of their lines and not in them, Russians used their infantry, armor, and fires to maximize damage to Ukrainian soldiers by trading their own men and materiel instead of kilometers.

As a result, the first line was very hard to break, especially with no air support or experience with multi-brigade operations. Yet, Russian troops also endured heavy losses.

posted by Harald74 at 10:55 PM on September 18, 2023 [5 favorites]

Linked on Phillips O'Brien's twitter/X is a story from CNN claiming that "Ukraine’s special services ‘likely’ behind strikes on Wagner-backed forces in Sudan," with videos of the drone attacks (SFW). If true, that is some wild spill-over.
posted by Dip Flash at 1:08 PM on September 19, 2023

I hope nobody objects to the size of this comment. It's Zelenskiy's speech as posted to Telegram on his official account (and translated by Telegram).

Ukraine surrendered its third largest nuclear arsenal. Then the world decided that Russia should become the custodian of such power. But subsequent history proved that it was Russia that most deserved nuclear disarmament back then, in the 1990s. Russia deserves disarmament even now: terrorists do not have the right to possess nuclear weapons.

As long as nuclear weapons remain in place, mass destruction is gaining momentum. Russia is weaponizing many other things, and these things are being used not only against our country, but against all of your countries. There are many conventions that limit the possession and proliferation of weapons, but there are no real restrictions on the use of food, energy, or other things as weapons.

Since the beginning of full-scale aggression, Russia has blocked our Black Sea and Azov seaports. Our ports on the Danube are still a target for its missiles and drones. Russia is trying to use food shortages on the world market as a weapon in exchange for recognizing the occupation of some — if not all — captured territories. Russia uses food prices as a weapon.

We launched a temporary export corridor in the Black Sea. We are working to preserve land routes. It is disturbing to see how at this time some people in Europe play solidarity and organize political theater, making a thriller out of grain. It may seem like they are playing their own part, but instead they are helping to set the stage for the Moscow actor.

The world has repeatedly witnessed Russia's use of energy as a weapon. The current threat is even greater. Russia is turning nuclear energy into a weapon. Look what Russia has done to our Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant: shelled it, occupied it, and now blackmails others with the threat of a radiation leak.

Unfortunately, various terrorist groups have abducted children before, but never before have mass abductions and deportations become part of state policy. Until today. Abducted Ukrainian children in Russia are taught to hate Ukraine, and all ties with their families are severed. This is genocide.

Every decade, Russia starts a new war. Parts of the territory of Moldova and Georgia remain occupied. Russia has turned Syria into ruins. And if it weren't for Russia, chemical weapons would never have been used there. Russia has almost absorbed Belarus, threatens Kazakhstan and the Baltic states.

Today more than ever, humanity must act in total solidarity to save human lives. As nuclear weapons are contained, so must the aggressor and all his tools and methods of war be contained. Every war now may be the last, but we need our unity to ensure that aggression does not break out again.

Last year, I presented the Ukrainian peace formula. It became the basis for updating the existing security architecture. We can now restore the UN Charter and guarantee the full force of the rules-based world order. Tomorrow I will present the details at a special meeting of the UN Security Council.

The formula is not only about Ukraine. More than 140 states and international organizations fully or partially supported it. It proposes solutions and steps that will stop all forms of weaponization that have been used by Russia against Ukraine and other countries and may be used by other aggressors.

Important negotiations and consultations regarding the implementation of the Peace Formula took place in Hiroshima, Copenhagen and Jeddah. And we are preparing the Global Peace Summit. I invite all of you - all those who do not tolerate any aggression - to joint preparations for the Summit.

I am aware of attempts to make some shady deals behind the scenes. Evil cannot be trusted. Ask Prigozhin whether Putin's promises should be trusted. Please hear me out. Let unity decide everything openly.

Ukraine is doing everything to ensure that no one in the world dares to attack any country after the Russian aggression. Weaponization must be restrained. War crimes must be punished. Deported people must return home. And the occupier must return to his own territory.

posted by krisjohn at 4:53 PM on September 19, 2023 [13 favorites]

I urge anyone following these long-running posts to pull up a map of the area around Türkiye's east through up to Chechnya (look for Grozny).

Türkiye's northern border is basically the Black Sea. Their southern border is half The Mediterranean and half Syria. The southern half of their eastern border is Iran and the northern half is half Georgia (საქართველო/Sakartvelo) and half Armenia. Georgia's south-eastern corner and Armenia's eastern border are with Azerbaijan.

"Azerbaijan launches military operation in disputed Nagorno-Karabakh
Explosions reported throughout Stepanakert raise concerns that Armenia and Azerbaijan are on the brink of another war" -- https://t.me/MiddleEastEye_rss/8609 / https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/azerbaijan-launches-military-operation-disputed-nagorno-karabakh

"The economy of Sakartvelo is under threat due to a possible war between Armenia and Azerbaijan. According to experts, a rather bad scenario is unfolding around our country. In addition to the Russian-Ukrainian war, the Azerbaijani-Armenian conflict was added. Both countries are important trading partners for Georgia, so a conflict between the parties just 300 km from Tbilisi will have consequences." -- https://t.me/c/1607822893/2868 (Труха 🇬🇪 Georgia)

Georgia's north-western region is referenced by Zelenskiy as one of the regions that "remain occupied" by Russia. And if you drive approximately 150km north north west of the Georgian capital Tbilisi, you reach the border of Chechnya. Georgia's entire northern border, from the Black Sea to Azerbaijan, is with Russia.

Keep in mind that Chechnya has been fighting for independence from Russia for [*turns away from camera* Is this right? Ok.] 232 years. The most recent conflict, The Second Chechen War ended with:

Russian President Vladimir Putin established direct rule of Chechnya in May 2000. The following month, Putin appointed Akhmad Kadyrov interim head of the pro-Moscow government. (emphasis added)

Yes, that's Ramzan Kadyrov's father.

This has got to be one of the most unstable regions in the world.
posted by krisjohn at 5:47 PM on September 19, 2023 [3 favorites]

(I hope someone is drafting the next iteration post ... )
posted by Quasirandom at 1:34 PM on September 20, 2023 [1 favorite]

Prime Minister @MorawieckiM for @PolsatNewsPL: Ukraine is defending itself against the brutal Russian attack and I understand this situation, but as I said, we will protect our country. We are no longer transferring weapons to Ukraine because we are now arming Poland

A predictable escalation but no less frustrating. When someone starts a sentence with "I understand this [war] situation, but ..." you know the rest is going to be total garbage.
posted by UN at 6:34 PM on September 20, 2023 [3 favorites]

Ugh. Three more weeks to the Polish election and of course the right wingers are pivoting to anti Ukrainian (based on their own crimes / lack of oversight with imported duty free Ukrainian grain) to cover up the fact they got caught unlawfully letting in 250K immigrants from Africa and Asia in exchange for hefty bribes.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 10:08 PM on September 20, 2023 [6 favorites]

Russia's Black Sea Fleet headquarters in occupied Crimea (Sevastopol) was hit and is on fire.

Also:

Meanwhile, explosions were reported at Russian logistics sites, air bases, and command posts in occupied Crimea, Russia's Krasnodar region, and near Moscow.
posted by UN at 5:41 AM on September 22, 2023 [3 favorites]

New thread.
posted by interogative mood at 6:41 AM on September 22, 2023 [8 favorites]