Americans Are Still Spending Like There’s No Tomorrow
October 1, 2023 8:58 PM Subscribe
Concerts, trips and designer handbags are taking priority over saving for a home or rainy day
(ghostarchive.org)
Yep. And that avocado toast too.
posted by slogger at 9:11 PM on October 1, 2023 [11 favorites]
posted by slogger at 9:11 PM on October 1, 2023 [11 favorites]
“All the rules that exist around money and lifestyle are just things people made up, so we’re playing a different game, and honestly I think we’re having more fun,” says Candice. (owner of a designer handbag.)
posted by blob at 9:15 PM on October 1, 2023 [5 favorites]
posted by blob at 9:15 PM on October 1, 2023 [5 favorites]
Speaking of celebrating the end of the world with some good avocado toast, you can't go wrong using sourdough bread and adding a tamagoyaki omelette on top. It doesn't need to be made with the fancy tamagoyaki pan, unless you're a purist — the keys are using MSG in place of salt and adding a nice dose of mirin to the eggs before heating them. The MSG's mushroomy saltiness combines with the sweetness of the mirin, the unctuous avocado, and crunchy and tangy sourdough toast. Something to try before everything is priced out of existence and Gilead takes over, anyway!
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 9:18 PM on October 1, 2023 [28 favorites]
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 9:18 PM on October 1, 2023 [28 favorites]
Oh no, Wall Street is mad that we're not putting every penny we have into savings accounts that pay shit, mutual funds that bleed away our money in fees, and a stock market where Jump and Citadel front run our trades.
Boo fucking hoo.
posted by 68091A50 at 9:39 PM on October 1, 2023 [93 favorites]
Boo fucking hoo.
posted by 68091A50 at 9:39 PM on October 1, 2023 [93 favorites]
I splurged this weekend - yellow rustoleum spray paint to cover over some bare parts of my snowblower the paint has flaked off of (it better last a few more years…), and an experiential trip to the landfill during a wind storm to drop off noxious green waste I can’t compost safely at home (poison hemlock and highly invasive ragweed). Plus new snow shovels, a better tow strap, and recovery wheel boards, so when our house guest with a 2WD eventually gets stuck this winter I can rescue them.
I’m really not doing this splurging thing right, am I?
posted by inflatablekiwi at 9:42 PM on October 1, 2023 [17 favorites]
I’m really not doing this splurging thing right, am I?
posted by inflatablekiwi at 9:42 PM on October 1, 2023 [17 favorites]
I'm quite sure wall street is over the moon, these people could be plotting revenge rather than gawking at dying glaciers with designer handbags bought on credit. Approximately literally taking their kids to see their future melting.
Wall street is fine and knows it.
posted by deadwax at 9:47 PM on October 1, 2023 [19 favorites]
Wall street is fine and knows it.
posted by deadwax at 9:47 PM on October 1, 2023 [19 favorites]
Aw, the commenters are Big Mad that consumers aren't spending according to their station in life. Bring back sumptuary laws!!!
posted by praemunire at 10:04 PM on October 1, 2023 [14 favorites]
posted by praemunire at 10:04 PM on October 1, 2023 [14 favorites]
When saving for a home is effectively impossible because house prices are too high, and when saving for a rainy day seems pointless because there is no way to save the amounts required for the disasters you can imagine - well, that is when you buy the avocado toast.
posted by mightygodking at 10:15 PM on October 1, 2023 [100 favorites]
posted by mightygodking at 10:15 PM on October 1, 2023 [100 favorites]
Aw, the commenters are Big Mad that consumers aren't spending according to their station in life. Bring back sumptuary laws!!!
Fuck that, treat yourself if you want. But these people are still (at least as presented here) willing pawns in the financial games that put them in this position in the first place. Can't buy a house so you treated yourself on credit instead; the money played the same game either way. Want anything to change; get grumpy. But the WSJ is probably not the place to look for any crack in the good consumer facade and I've just successfully had my buttons pushed.
posted by deadwax at 10:34 PM on October 1, 2023 [9 favorites]
Fuck that, treat yourself if you want. But these people are still (at least as presented here) willing pawns in the financial games that put them in this position in the first place. Can't buy a house so you treated yourself on credit instead; the money played the same game either way. Want anything to change; get grumpy. But the WSJ is probably not the place to look for any crack in the good consumer facade and I've just successfully had my buttons pushed.
posted by deadwax at 10:34 PM on October 1, 2023 [9 favorites]
I deeply distrust this kind of reporting, since it's so easy to cherry-pick to spin your narrative.
I've been increasingly frustrated by the aggregated statistics from the Fed since they don't report by income quintile or age.
Today's relatively high interest rate regime sucks for people under 40 but are wonderful for people who've already bought a house (or ten). People also talk about how high interest rates are tough for the car market but I don't really see it, a 72-mo loan payment on a $45k loan is:
$625.00 @ 0%
$683.72 @ 3%
$745.78 @ 6%
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=19A9T is the real interest rate, Prime - "Inflation", showing we've popped up back to the 1980 - 2000 era of interest rate normalization, which came after the craziness of the 1970s.
One thing in my economic thesis this decade is that the baby boomers economics are going to dominate everything, since they are all age 60 - 77 now, just about all heading into retirement and going to begin to pass on the baton (and any assets that survive senior care) to the millennials waiting in the wings (youngest of which are leaving college now).
2023-2029 could be a replay of 1993-1999, or not. The big story is simply employment is still tight . . . I guess since the 70m+ boomers are presenting a lot of demand from living off their pensions and investments.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=19AbX shows we've surpassed the 'full employment' levels of 1999-2000 and 2019.
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 11:23 PM on October 1, 2023 [7 favorites]
I've been increasingly frustrated by the aggregated statistics from the Fed since they don't report by income quintile or age.
Today's relatively high interest rate regime sucks for people under 40 but are wonderful for people who've already bought a house (or ten). People also talk about how high interest rates are tough for the car market but I don't really see it, a 72-mo loan payment on a $45k loan is:
$625.00 @ 0%
$683.72 @ 3%
$745.78 @ 6%
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=19A9T is the real interest rate, Prime - "Inflation", showing we've popped up back to the 1980 - 2000 era of interest rate normalization, which came after the craziness of the 1970s.
One thing in my economic thesis this decade is that the baby boomers economics are going to dominate everything, since they are all age 60 - 77 now, just about all heading into retirement and going to begin to pass on the baton (and any assets that survive senior care) to the millennials waiting in the wings (youngest of which are leaving college now).
2023-2029 could be a replay of 1993-1999, or not. The big story is simply employment is still tight . . . I guess since the 70m+ boomers are presenting a lot of demand from living off their pensions and investments.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=19AbX shows we've surpassed the 'full employment' levels of 1999-2000 and 2019.
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 11:23 PM on October 1, 2023 [7 favorites]
Wall Street Journal is the Daily Mail for people with MBAs.
posted by Pyrogenesis at 11:34 PM on October 1, 2023 [70 favorites]
posted by Pyrogenesis at 11:34 PM on October 1, 2023 [70 favorites]
I recently purchased multiple avocados at the grocery like some kind of heir to the Barony of 2006 Prius.
posted by MonsieurPEB at 11:47 PM on October 1, 2023 [17 favorites]
posted by MonsieurPEB at 11:47 PM on October 1, 2023 [17 favorites]
Same thing in Australia, with plenty of comics poking fun at Philip Lowe (Reserve Bank Governor) who makes decisions on interest rates. Inflation is high, so he hikes interest rates, but people still pack the shopping malls with huge crowds, much to his displeasure. In fact, year on year inflation rose from 4.9% to 5.2% in August, so rates might have to rise yet further.
Variable rate home loans are around 5.8% right now, versus 7.5% when I borrowed for a home back in 2010 (which I've since sold to a nice couple who are living in it now).
Home prices are going up because people are doing well financially and have the money and are bidding prices up. You might argue that the wrong people have the money (not you, for various reasons) but that's always been an inequality thing. If the economy were doing badly you'd see something like Detroit, where home prices generally fell 50%, and in particularly bad neighbourhoods you could buy houses for $1 each. No one there was rejoicing over cheap homes.
Speaking of avocadoes, they're currently going for about $A0.09 cents each (so $0.05 USD).
posted by xdvesper at 12:01 AM on October 2, 2023 [6 favorites]
Variable rate home loans are around 5.8% right now, versus 7.5% when I borrowed for a home back in 2010 (which I've since sold to a nice couple who are living in it now).
Home prices are going up because people are doing well financially and have the money and are bidding prices up. You might argue that the wrong people have the money (not you, for various reasons) but that's always been an inequality thing. If the economy were doing badly you'd see something like Detroit, where home prices generally fell 50%, and in particularly bad neighbourhoods you could buy houses for $1 each. No one there was rejoicing over cheap homes.
Speaking of avocadoes, they're currently going for about $A0.09 cents each (so $0.05 USD).
posted by xdvesper at 12:01 AM on October 2, 2023 [6 favorites]
Avocado arbitrage incoming
posted by DeepSeaHaggis at 12:34 AM on October 2, 2023 [8 favorites]
posted by DeepSeaHaggis at 12:34 AM on October 2, 2023 [8 favorites]
Wait I thought they wanted everyone to spend money? Isn’t that why there was such a push to reopen everything in a pandemic? So these people should be treated as heroes! Doing their duty for the economy!
posted by LizBoBiz at 1:00 AM on October 2, 2023 [16 favorites]
posted by LizBoBiz at 1:00 AM on October 2, 2023 [16 favorites]
Wait I thought they wanted everyone to spend money? Isn’t that why there was such a push to reopen everything in a pandemic? So these people should be treated as heroes!
This is like when we had bushfires in late 2019, so our Prime Minister said he was praying for rain - he is a member of the Hillsong Church and sometimes gives somewhat political speeches from the pulpit - after he lost the election, he gave a sermon where he said we trust in god, we don't trust in governments. Talk about sour grapes!
Anyway, the bushfire season ended abruptly a few months later with a deluge of rain and damaging floods throughout the country, so everyone was yelling STOP THE PRAYERS!!!!
Oh a link to a satire site The Chaser - Government begs Australians to taper their prayers for rain.
posted by xdvesper at 1:15 AM on October 2, 2023 [2 favorites]
This is like when we had bushfires in late 2019, so our Prime Minister said he was praying for rain - he is a member of the Hillsong Church and sometimes gives somewhat political speeches from the pulpit - after he lost the election, he gave a sermon where he said we trust in god, we don't trust in governments. Talk about sour grapes!
Anyway, the bushfire season ended abruptly a few months later with a deluge of rain and damaging floods throughout the country, so everyone was yelling STOP THE PRAYERS!!!!
Oh a link to a satire site The Chaser - Government begs Australians to taper their prayers for rain.
posted by xdvesper at 1:15 AM on October 2, 2023 [2 favorites]
I mean, aren’t we supposed to be constantly spending? That’s what all those companies listed on the stock exchanges are endlessly hectoring us to do. Spend, spend, spend! Buy, buy, buy!
posted by Thorzdad at 3:23 AM on October 2, 2023 [6 favorites]
posted by Thorzdad at 3:23 AM on October 2, 2023 [6 favorites]
I am on an extreme budget right now and have been since July when I was laid off. For the past two and a half months I have been surviving on a combination of a part-time contract gig and the pittance that NY State unemployment will give me (after calculating what to take away after the temp work). I have been keeping a near-constant eagle eye on my spending to make sure I can make ends meet - and have been doing well enough that I have not had to dip into my savings at all quite yet, and was even nearly a thousand dollars in the black last month.
Surely I can spare about $50 for a damn movie and a lunch in a restaurant, right? Or would the good people of the Wall Street Journal prefer I eliminate all thoughts about everything else from my brain save for how my money is doing, and deny me the chance to enjoy the fruits of my labor?
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 3:53 AM on October 2, 2023 [9 favorites]
Surely I can spare about $50 for a damn movie and a lunch in a restaurant, right? Or would the good people of the Wall Street Journal prefer I eliminate all thoughts about everything else from my brain save for how my money is doing, and deny me the chance to enjoy the fruits of my labor?
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 3:53 AM on October 2, 2023 [9 favorites]
Having ample savings is crucial to ensure you have assets to seize during your medical bankruptcy.
posted by Horace Rumpole at 4:51 AM on October 2, 2023 [65 favorites]
posted by Horace Rumpole at 4:51 AM on October 2, 2023 [65 favorites]
Poverty syndrome. Money will ALWAYS be short. You will never have enough. You cannot save, something will always appear to eat up every penny you have. When you try to save all that happens is you deny yourself something nice and the money still just vanishes into thin air instead of sitting in a savings account.
So when you've got a few extra bucks spend it on something nice, because saving never works.
It's not a sign of lack of virtue on the part of the lower orders, it's a sign of an economy that's designed to enrich the ultra rich at the expense of everyone else and is driving everyone else into poverty.
I don't want to be an accelerationist, but I can really see where accelerationism comes from. No one is fucking DOING anything about this. We sit around, we complain, we get worked to death and never have anything nice or good, and yet no one is willing to actually get out there and do the level of protesting it takes to get change.
Because, make no mistake, fixing this will take mass protests that shut down vital sections of the economy and cause huge inconvenience to lots of people. Nice polite protests that happen out of sight and don't make a fuss are just a fun walk with friends.
Protest that actually accomplishes goals shuts down highways, blocks traffic, shuts down industry, blocks shipment, and causes serious, rage inducing, inconvenience for tens of millions of people. Anything less is just a waste of your time.
But it seems like no one will be willing to do that until we've actually got mass starvation and tens of millions of working Americans are homeless.
I can understand where the accelerationists are coming from. I don't agree, not yet anyway, but I can sympathize with accelerationism.
posted by sotonohito at 5:16 AM on October 2, 2023 [28 favorites]
So when you've got a few extra bucks spend it on something nice, because saving never works.
It's not a sign of lack of virtue on the part of the lower orders, it's a sign of an economy that's designed to enrich the ultra rich at the expense of everyone else and is driving everyone else into poverty.
I don't want to be an accelerationist, but I can really see where accelerationism comes from. No one is fucking DOING anything about this. We sit around, we complain, we get worked to death and never have anything nice or good, and yet no one is willing to actually get out there and do the level of protesting it takes to get change.
Because, make no mistake, fixing this will take mass protests that shut down vital sections of the economy and cause huge inconvenience to lots of people. Nice polite protests that happen out of sight and don't make a fuss are just a fun walk with friends.
Protest that actually accomplishes goals shuts down highways, blocks traffic, shuts down industry, blocks shipment, and causes serious, rage inducing, inconvenience for tens of millions of people. Anything less is just a waste of your time.
But it seems like no one will be willing to do that until we've actually got mass starvation and tens of millions of working Americans are homeless.
I can understand where the accelerationists are coming from. I don't agree, not yet anyway, but I can sympathize with accelerationism.
posted by sotonohito at 5:16 AM on October 2, 2023 [28 favorites]
Just a slight correction, home prices are not going up because families have more money, they're going up because REITs are hoovering up absofuckinglutely everything with a doormat so they can drive up rental costs and extract even more profit from the housing stock that's there and largely rotting away in neglect, rather than building anything new. Why on earth would you spend $500m on a new subdivision or condo tower when you could just buy an old one and rent it out. I mean, unless you were a "friend" of Doug Ford and got the land for essentially nothing.
posted by seanmpuckett at 5:22 AM on October 2, 2023 [22 favorites]
posted by seanmpuckett at 5:22 AM on October 2, 2023 [22 favorites]
Duh. There is no tomorrow.
posted by darksasami at 5:39 AM on October 2, 2023 [11 favorites]
posted by darksasami at 5:39 AM on October 2, 2023 [11 favorites]
This made me think a lot about the book Random Family from about twenty years ago, dealing with people close to the poverty line (often due to drug addiction or proximity to it). And how often when a financial windfall would hit, the automatic response would be to spend it on something nice, and often something flashy and unnecessary, rather than saving it for the next rainy day. How over time the author realized that the people in those situations already knew that there was no point to saving the money, because there would always be more demand than supply of it, more ways that unforeseen forces would grab it away because life was so precarious already - that spending it in ways that made you happy and could potentially boost your social cred at that moment (the right car, the right bag), might even do more good than putting it away for a future that might disappear in (literal) smoke.
To me this article just reads like the same story of helplessness and economic despair, only now it’s hitting the next socioeconomic class upwards. Deadwax had it in one.
posted by Mchelly at 5:48 AM on October 2, 2023 [8 favorites]
To me this article just reads like the same story of helplessness and economic despair, only now it’s hitting the next socioeconomic class upwards. Deadwax had it in one.
posted by Mchelly at 5:48 AM on October 2, 2023 [8 favorites]
The peasants would labor for their lord, and he would allow them to live on their land. Occasionally they could buy a new saddle or a silver cup. Having enough money to buy their own land just wasn't possible though.
Anyway, the real reason you can't buy a house is because you don't re-use your teabags.
posted by adept256 at 5:50 AM on October 2, 2023 [15 favorites]
Anyway, the real reason you can't buy a house is because you don't re-use your teabags.
posted by adept256 at 5:50 AM on October 2, 2023 [15 favorites]
No Future
posted by eustatic at 5:51 AM on October 2, 2023 [8 favorites]
posted by eustatic at 5:51 AM on October 2, 2023 [8 favorites]
The plural of anecdote isn't data, but I'll say this much: I'm comfortably within the top 10 percent of American earners. However, because I do not have access to any generational wealth to secure a down payment, I would have to save roughly 20% of my income for the next 45 years to have a down payment on a house in my neighborhood. That, of course, assumes that property values will never go up in those decades. Any home ownership is out of reach just by pure mathematics.
So is it really that surprising that, when locked out of any way to move forward, you may as well just spend what little you can now?
But yes, WSJ, let's keep with a narrative that says people are just spending because they realized post-pandemic they could die any moment!
posted by Hot Like Your 12V Wire at 6:15 AM on October 2, 2023 [8 favorites]
So is it really that surprising that, when locked out of any way to move forward, you may as well just spend what little you can now?
But yes, WSJ, let's keep with a narrative that says people are just spending because they realized post-pandemic they could die any moment!
posted by Hot Like Your 12V Wire at 6:15 AM on October 2, 2023 [8 favorites]
And just going back on rereading my comment - I’m not saying that it’s poor-me despair. I’m saying that when the world genuinely is stacked against you, there does get to be a point where it genuinely makes no sense to put that money away. If you know any house you buy is going to be underwater in ten years (due to a mortgage + home value bubble bursting or literal climate change flood water), then why not go on vacation while you still can?
posted by Mchelly at 6:18 AM on October 2, 2023 [5 favorites]
posted by Mchelly at 6:18 AM on October 2, 2023 [5 favorites]
After all, they can’t take away your memories.
Yet.
posted by notoriety public at 6:35 AM on October 2, 2023 [6 favorites]
Yet.
posted by notoriety public at 6:35 AM on October 2, 2023 [6 favorites]
In the early nineties there were articles being written about "paté poverty" -- new young people (at the time, GenXers) who couldn't afford a home or other things that were taken for granted by the previous generation that gets all the attention, but they could afford to spend $5 or $10 on a bit of paté with truffle in it. It was the avocado toast of the day.
posted by gimonca at 6:37 AM on October 2, 2023 [12 favorites]
posted by gimonca at 6:37 AM on October 2, 2023 [12 favorites]
After all, they can’t take away your memories.
Leela: Didn't you have ads in the 20th century?posted by adept256 at 6:40 AM on October 2, 2023 [11 favorites]
Fry: Well, sure, but not in our dreams. Only on TV and radio. And in magazines and movies and at ball games, on buses and milk cartons and T-shirts and bananas and written on the sky. But not in dreams. No, sir-ee!
comfortably within the top 10 percent of American earners. However, because I do not have access to any generational wealth to secure a down payment, I would have to save roughly 20% of my income for the next 45 years to have a down payment on a house in my neighborhood.
I swear I'm not trying to make a point about your general argument, but is there a typo in here somewhere? The cutoff for being in the top 10% this year appears to be 135,605 (for an individual). Even calculating out from the bottom of that range, you're saying the single-family houses in your neighborhood require higher than 1.2Million dollar down payments?
posted by nobody at 7:02 AM on October 2, 2023 [9 favorites]
I swear I'm not trying to make a point about your general argument, but is there a typo in here somewhere? The cutoff for being in the top 10% this year appears to be 135,605 (for an individual). Even calculating out from the bottom of that range, you're saying the single-family houses in your neighborhood require higher than 1.2Million dollar down payments?
posted by nobody at 7:02 AM on October 2, 2023 [9 favorites]
We just had the FPP about how car manufacturers are deliberately eliminating smaller and cheaper vehicles--not only do they cost more, they cost more in gas to operate. House? Fuck me, I'm not sure when I'll be able to afford a new car.
And WRT enjoyable little luxuries as opposed to "buying sensibly", here's something from George Orwell's The Road to Wigan Pier, as true now as it was in 1937 (and doubtless earlier):
And WRT enjoyable little luxuries as opposed to "buying sensibly", here's something from George Orwell's The Road to Wigan Pier, as true now as it was in 1937 (and doubtless earlier):
Would it not be better if they spent more money on wholesome things like oranges and wholemeal bread or if they even, like the writer of the letter to the New Statesman, saved on fuel and ate their carrots raw? Yes, it would, but the point is that no ordinary human being is ever going to do such a thing. The ordinary human being would sooner starve than live on brown bread and raw carrots. And the peculiar evil is this, that the less money you have, the less inclined you feel to spend it on wholesome food. A millionaire may enjoy breakfasting off orange juice and Ryvita biscuits; an unemployed man doesn’t. Here the tendency of which I spoke at the end of the last chapter comes into play. When you are unemployed, which is to say when you are underfed, harassed, bored, and miserable, you don’t want to eat dull wholesome food. You want something a little bit ’tasty’. There is always some cheaply pleasant thing to tempt you. Let’s have three pennorth of chips! Run out and buy us a twopenny ice-cream! Put the kettle on and we’ll all have a nice cup of tea! That is how your mind works when you are at the P.A.C. level. White bread-and-marg and sugared tea don’t nourish you to any extent, but they are nicer (at least most people think so) than brown bread-and-dripping and cold water. Unemployment is an endless misery that has got to be constantly palliated, and especially with tea, the English-man’s opium. A cup of tea or even an aspirin is much better as a temporary stimulant than a crust of brown bread.posted by Halloween Jack at 7:02 AM on October 2, 2023 [26 favorites]
No Future*
Indeed, that's a theme running through the linked article. The world is looking darker there:
“I might as well just enjoy what I have now,” he says.
they got to see Lahaina just a few months before it was decimated
Fears about a changing climate are driving some people to try to see places before they’re gone. In a monthly Deloitte survey of 19,000 global consumers, climate change was the only topic among 19 different concerns that respondents reported feeling significantly more worried about over the past year.
a $7,000 Alaskan cruise so his family could see the ice caps
*You have to hear Johnny Rotten snarling it for full effect
posted by doctornemo at 7:09 AM on October 2, 2023 [4 favorites]
Indeed, that's a theme running through the linked article. The world is looking darker there:
“I might as well just enjoy what I have now,” he says.
they got to see Lahaina just a few months before it was decimated
Fears about a changing climate are driving some people to try to see places before they’re gone. In a monthly Deloitte survey of 19,000 global consumers, climate change was the only topic among 19 different concerns that respondents reported feeling significantly more worried about over the past year.
a $7,000 Alaskan cruise so his family could see the ice caps
*You have to hear Johnny Rotten snarling it for full effect
posted by doctornemo at 7:09 AM on October 2, 2023 [4 favorites]
comfortably within the top 10 percent of American earners. However, because I do not have access to any generational wealth to secure a down payment, I would have to save roughly 20% of my income for the next 45 years to have a down payment on a house in my neighborhood.
I swear I'm not trying to make a point about your general argument, but is there a typo in here somewhere? The cutoff for being in the top 10% this year appears to be 135,605 (for an individual). Even calculating out from the bottom of that range, you're saying the single-family houses in your neighborhood require higher than 1.2Million dollar down payments?
nobody, that feeling is realizing Metafilter is now where people come to just spout absolute complete nonsense. I make $85-90k pre-tax and saved up to buy a $320,000 house downpayment in 3 years while paying for a (small, cause that's how I do) wedding.
This place is nothing but endless performances in threads. I'm not clear who people are trying to impress.
posted by OnTheLastCastle at 7:33 AM on October 2, 2023 [8 favorites]
I swear I'm not trying to make a point about your general argument, but is there a typo in here somewhere? The cutoff for being in the top 10% this year appears to be 135,605 (for an individual). Even calculating out from the bottom of that range, you're saying the single-family houses in your neighborhood require higher than 1.2Million dollar down payments?
nobody, that feeling is realizing Metafilter is now where people come to just spout absolute complete nonsense. I make $85-90k pre-tax and saved up to buy a $320,000 house downpayment in 3 years while paying for a (small, cause that's how I do) wedding.
This place is nothing but endless performances in threads. I'm not clear who people are trying to impress.
posted by OnTheLastCastle at 7:33 AM on October 2, 2023 [8 favorites]
Let's just do the math on it.
20% of 135,000 is $27,000. 27,000 x 45 years is $1,215,000.
So you're planning to buy a house that is $6,075,000 if it takes you 45 years to save 20% of your income for a 20% downpayment when you're "top 10%" and making $135,000.
posted by OnTheLastCastle at 7:37 AM on October 2, 2023 [3 favorites]
20% of 135,000 is $27,000. 27,000 x 45 years is $1,215,000.
So you're planning to buy a house that is $6,075,000 if it takes you 45 years to save 20% of your income for a 20% downpayment when you're "top 10%" and making $135,000.
posted by OnTheLastCastle at 7:37 AM on October 2, 2023 [3 favorites]
“It’s not a regret-filled, spur-of-the-moment decision,” says Michael Liersch, who oversees a team of advisers as head of advice at Wells Fargo.This can't be the same Wells Fargo that screws over consumers with phantom accounts and evil tricks to trigger overdraft fees, right?
posted by JoeZydeco at 7:39 AM on October 2, 2023 [4 favorites]
I'm not going to lie, I feel like we're out of runway.
It's quite possible that we will elect Trump in 2024. If that happens, Medicare, Social Security, Medicaid and the ACA are going down; so are civil rights protections. We're already on the road, under Democratic city administrations, toward putting unhoused people in camps or forcibly institutionalizing them - the mood is pro-incarceration. When we have actual fascists in power, queer and trans people, sex workers, activists and anyone who can be ruled inconvenient might well be interned. It would take some time to get to that point - several years, probably - but migrant internment is big money and has largely been unstoppable. Think how much more graft there'll be if you have several million more inconvenient citizens to put away.
I know this is dark, dark, dark and I do not mean to be alarmist; this is my considered opinion based on having seen the slow momentum of the first Trump term and the political changes since 2016.
I think it's pretty likely that at least some of my friends are going to be interned. Even if I keep below the radar because I'm a bit of a coward, what kind of life am I going to have?
And that's before we get to the climate crisis. What are things going to look like in ten years? Shortages and supply chain issues are already hitting even rich countries, although our relative wealth has concealed just how much of this is climate-driven.
I'm not getting any younger. Am I going to afford to stay cool enough to live in the coming summers, even if I can stay fed and can bear what the world will be like?
And when I consider what things are going to look like, what I'm going to have to see and know; when I consider how bad it feels just to see and know what is happening now; well, I do not see a future for myself or people like me.
So yeah, a short horizon. I think a lot of people feel this way, consciously or not. I think it's bad that people feel this way, I think it's going to compound our problems, but I also think it's hard to hide how bad things are getting and impossible to ignore once you see it.
posted by Frowner at 7:45 AM on October 2, 2023 [23 favorites]
It's quite possible that we will elect Trump in 2024. If that happens, Medicare, Social Security, Medicaid and the ACA are going down; so are civil rights protections. We're already on the road, under Democratic city administrations, toward putting unhoused people in camps or forcibly institutionalizing them - the mood is pro-incarceration. When we have actual fascists in power, queer and trans people, sex workers, activists and anyone who can be ruled inconvenient might well be interned. It would take some time to get to that point - several years, probably - but migrant internment is big money and has largely been unstoppable. Think how much more graft there'll be if you have several million more inconvenient citizens to put away.
I know this is dark, dark, dark and I do not mean to be alarmist; this is my considered opinion based on having seen the slow momentum of the first Trump term and the political changes since 2016.
I think it's pretty likely that at least some of my friends are going to be interned. Even if I keep below the radar because I'm a bit of a coward, what kind of life am I going to have?
And that's before we get to the climate crisis. What are things going to look like in ten years? Shortages and supply chain issues are already hitting even rich countries, although our relative wealth has concealed just how much of this is climate-driven.
I'm not getting any younger. Am I going to afford to stay cool enough to live in the coming summers, even if I can stay fed and can bear what the world will be like?
And when I consider what things are going to look like, what I'm going to have to see and know; when I consider how bad it feels just to see and know what is happening now; well, I do not see a future for myself or people like me.
So yeah, a short horizon. I think a lot of people feel this way, consciously or not. I think it's bad that people feel this way, I think it's going to compound our problems, but I also think it's hard to hide how bad things are getting and impossible to ignore once you see it.
posted by Frowner at 7:45 AM on October 2, 2023 [23 favorites]
It would take some time to get to that point - several years, probably - but migrant internment is big money and has largely been unstoppable.
Is it unstoppable, or did Biden almost wholly decline to try?
posted by Selena777 at 7:48 AM on October 2, 2023 [3 favorites]
Is it unstoppable, or did Biden almost wholly decline to try?
posted by Selena777 at 7:48 AM on October 2, 2023 [3 favorites]
So you're planning to buy a house that is $6,075,000 if it takes you 45 years to save 20% of your income
So a 2 bedroom fixer upper in Riverside or Hartford CT, huh?
Foghorn Leghorn: that's a joke son!
posted by The_Vegetables at 7:48 AM on October 2, 2023 [4 favorites]
So a 2 bedroom fixer upper in Riverside or Hartford CT, huh?
Foghorn Leghorn: that's a joke son!
posted by The_Vegetables at 7:48 AM on October 2, 2023 [4 favorites]
I make $85-90k pre-tax and saved up to buy a $320,000 house downpayment in 3 years while paying for a (small, cause that's how I do) wedding.
Well. I live and work in Manhattan. A one-bed in good condition and within decent commuting range starts at $750K. That's $150K down payment (you're not getting away with less). Plus roughly five percent in closing costs, so another $37.5K. And then...at that price point, those will be co-ops, which commonly require that you have two years of mortgage and maintenance in liquid assets (so, no retirement funds) post-closing. How much that will be fluctuates with interest rates, obviously, but right now that probably tacks on another $120,000. That's $307.5K before you even think about doing any pre-move renovations on it. I make a decent living, but even if I were able to save $3K (!) a month, after saving for retirement, mind you, that's still 8.5 years. Assuming housing price increases don't outstrip income increases.
So...I'm glad you were able to save up your $9-$15K, but your circumstances aren't universal. I mostly put my savings into accounts earmarked for retirement instead, but, yeah, the more I conclude that buying an apartment where I'd actually want to live is out of reach, the easier it is to shift some of that money to trying to enjoy life while my health is still pretty good.
would the good people of the Wall Street Journal prefer I eliminate all thoughts about everything else from my brain save for how my money is doing, and deny me the chance to enjoy the fruits of my labor?
Yep.
posted by praemunire at 7:50 AM on October 2, 2023 [17 favorites]
Well. I live and work in Manhattan. A one-bed in good condition and within decent commuting range starts at $750K. That's $150K down payment (you're not getting away with less). Plus roughly five percent in closing costs, so another $37.5K. And then...at that price point, those will be co-ops, which commonly require that you have two years of mortgage and maintenance in liquid assets (so, no retirement funds) post-closing. How much that will be fluctuates with interest rates, obviously, but right now that probably tacks on another $120,000. That's $307.5K before you even think about doing any pre-move renovations on it. I make a decent living, but even if I were able to save $3K (!) a month, after saving for retirement, mind you, that's still 8.5 years. Assuming housing price increases don't outstrip income increases.
So...I'm glad you were able to save up your $9-$15K, but your circumstances aren't universal. I mostly put my savings into accounts earmarked for retirement instead, but, yeah, the more I conclude that buying an apartment where I'd actually want to live is out of reach, the easier it is to shift some of that money to trying to enjoy life while my health is still pretty good.
would the good people of the Wall Street Journal prefer I eliminate all thoughts about everything else from my brain save for how my money is doing, and deny me the chance to enjoy the fruits of my labor?
Yep.
posted by praemunire at 7:50 AM on October 2, 2023 [17 favorites]
praemunire speaks truth about NYC real estate.
And SO HELP ME GOD if anyone comes in here to say anything about living in Long Island or in Westchester or moving out of NYC I will personally hunt them down and punch them in some kind of gland.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 8:08 AM on October 2, 2023 [10 favorites]
And SO HELP ME GOD if anyone comes in here to say anything about living in Long Island or in Westchester or moving out of NYC I will personally hunt them down and punch them in some kind of gland.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 8:08 AM on October 2, 2023 [10 favorites]
Increased spending is the expected rational economic response to high inflation. If the money is worth less tomorrow it's better to spend it today. You see extreme examples of this like in the recent inflation crises in Argentina with people eating out every night since if they wait until tomorrow the meal will be even more expensive. We're just seeing a smaller variant of it here in the US.
posted by dis_integration at 8:10 AM on October 2, 2023 [13 favorites]
posted by dis_integration at 8:10 AM on October 2, 2023 [13 favorites]
*exhausted* I realized this year that I've more or less given up on saving money, because after ten years financially on my own I've never managed to have a year without some kind of major financial fuckery? Like, four of those I had house floods, one an apartment burned down, there have been two interstate moves in there, one international immigration, COVID, a retraining for my partner in there... I own my house but that is pretty much purely by the grace of a large parental gift that was supposed to be a honeymoon, two years late, because giving my sister the same gift in front of me at Christmas was apparently a step too far; we threw that into a down payment on a house on the theory that at least a house would mean rent wouldn't hike by another $100/month every year. (I think we had one cost of living readjustment in seven years, and it only really met one of those rent hikes.) I've never managed more than getting by. So why the fuck keep trying and beating up on myself for mysteriously never being able to manage it?
Man, we moved to Minnesota and our income quadrupled because my spouse was no longer in school and I finally had a postdoc job. Two years later, inflation and a higher cost of living has just about eaten that income gain entirely.
I dunno, man, fuck it. I've formally decided that I'm not moving again for anything short of localized political catastrophe. If I can wangle my current postdoc--which I love, and which I am doing very well with--into a long-term appointment to a tenure track faculty position, I'll do that, and I'll keep aiming at that until and unless the money runs out. If that happens, though, the hell with it: I'll start applying for remote tech industry jobs and go for whatever seems like the best answer at the time. The summers are boiling, but at least the biggest catastrophe up here seems to be massive winters, and even then mostly the lights stay on. I don't have to worry about hurricanes or tornadoes or earthquakes too much, and the great fires mostly don't get this far south. I can't afford to think of myself as transient when there are so many potential threats to watch.
I do not think we're at serious risk of a Republican takeover this coming election, but I've spent the last two weeks watching another shutdown lurch ever nearer. You don't need a GOP takeover to fuck you up; you just need to let them have a majority in literally any branch of government, and they've done their best to embed themselves into the judicial for the ongoing future. Pretty much the only future I see politically to improve anything is a Democrat majority in both houses of Congress and the executive branch and the willingness to reform the Supreme Court, either by adding justices or creating new structural rules to thwart any future McConnell.
And that's going to be pretty hard to pull off, let me tell you. In the meantime, well, maybe I'll get lucky and my credit debt will fall into the sea. Fuckit. Delayed gratification is what you do when you trust the experimenter to actually give you the marshmallows. It is not a good strategy in atmospheres of high chaos and low long term trust.
posted by sciatrix at 8:12 AM on October 2, 2023 [26 favorites]
Man, we moved to Minnesota and our income quadrupled because my spouse was no longer in school and I finally had a postdoc job. Two years later, inflation and a higher cost of living has just about eaten that income gain entirely.
I dunno, man, fuck it. I've formally decided that I'm not moving again for anything short of localized political catastrophe. If I can wangle my current postdoc--which I love, and which I am doing very well with--into a long-term appointment to a tenure track faculty position, I'll do that, and I'll keep aiming at that until and unless the money runs out. If that happens, though, the hell with it: I'll start applying for remote tech industry jobs and go for whatever seems like the best answer at the time. The summers are boiling, but at least the biggest catastrophe up here seems to be massive winters, and even then mostly the lights stay on. I don't have to worry about hurricanes or tornadoes or earthquakes too much, and the great fires mostly don't get this far south. I can't afford to think of myself as transient when there are so many potential threats to watch.
I do not think we're at serious risk of a Republican takeover this coming election, but I've spent the last two weeks watching another shutdown lurch ever nearer. You don't need a GOP takeover to fuck you up; you just need to let them have a majority in literally any branch of government, and they've done their best to embed themselves into the judicial for the ongoing future. Pretty much the only future I see politically to improve anything is a Democrat majority in both houses of Congress and the executive branch and the willingness to reform the Supreme Court, either by adding justices or creating new structural rules to thwart any future McConnell.
And that's going to be pretty hard to pull off, let me tell you. In the meantime, well, maybe I'll get lucky and my credit debt will fall into the sea. Fuckit. Delayed gratification is what you do when you trust the experimenter to actually give you the marshmallows. It is not a good strategy in atmospheres of high chaos and low long term trust.
posted by sciatrix at 8:12 AM on October 2, 2023 [26 favorites]
Is it unstoppable, or did Biden almost wholly decline to try?
It's unstoppable politically, just like the climate crisis. If benevolent aliens arrive or a left wing revolution breaks out, all this could be stopped, it's not physics. For derail-y reasons, I believe that the social conditions do not exist and will not exist in the short/medium term. I believe that most people underestimate the...I don't even know what you'd call it, the unreachability of corporate power, the total corruption of the state, that comes from the way mergers, deregulation, changes in the tax structure, "free" trade, etc have allowed capital to complicate itself. If the climate weren't falling apart, there would eventually be some enormous crisis of capital or war and things would get moving again and there would be openings, but because our timeline is so short, that won't help.
Again, I know this kind of comment is basically a doomer asshole comment. I'm not even against people believing optimistic things that are unlikely or based on false information, because it all works out the same in the end, whatever gets you through the night, etc etc, but sometimes a relatively gloomy thread comes along and I just really want to comment instead of keeping my mouth shut.
posted by Frowner at 8:14 AM on October 2, 2023 [26 favorites]
It's unstoppable politically, just like the climate crisis. If benevolent aliens arrive or a left wing revolution breaks out, all this could be stopped, it's not physics. For derail-y reasons, I believe that the social conditions do not exist and will not exist in the short/medium term. I believe that most people underestimate the...I don't even know what you'd call it, the unreachability of corporate power, the total corruption of the state, that comes from the way mergers, deregulation, changes in the tax structure, "free" trade, etc have allowed capital to complicate itself. If the climate weren't falling apart, there would eventually be some enormous crisis of capital or war and things would get moving again and there would be openings, but because our timeline is so short, that won't help.
Again, I know this kind of comment is basically a doomer asshole comment. I'm not even against people believing optimistic things that are unlikely or based on false information, because it all works out the same in the end, whatever gets you through the night, etc etc, but sometimes a relatively gloomy thread comes along and I just really want to comment instead of keeping my mouth shut.
posted by Frowner at 8:14 AM on October 2, 2023 [26 favorites]
Mmmm, I feel you. I do have to say, I've been pleasantly surprised by how much Biden is getting through, even with the loss of the House: victories for workers in labor disputes (including being the first President ever to take a stint on a picket line and firing the Trump-appointed NLRB head within hours of inauguration), plus creating much more union-friendly rules about union recognition and elections and enforcing existing labor laws in disputes. Plus there's the new American Climate Corps, which should help on both the climate and the jobs fronts.
(Recently, he responded to corporate complaints about worker shortages by releasing a helpful booklet on how to train new skilled employees. The cheek. I was delighted.)
That's not to say that it doesn't look hellishly bleak out there, or that the fragile progress of the past three years couldn't be wiped away with a bad run, or that stochastic terrorism and violence aren't still a permanent threat. Nor does it mean that the thing I noted, about watching my buying power going up in smoke over two years, isn't a real grief and frustration. But the best way to challenge the overcomplication of capital is to build a robust workers' lobby with distinctly different opinions about capital, and give it teeth to do something with. In a lot of ways, I see the emphasis on organized labor as our most promising shot at overcoming that complication--if for no other reason than that this movement has been the source of an awful lot of public education about workers' rights and exactly how much fat and meat is getting trimmed off before working people get the bones over the past century.
And I'm cautiously optimistic about this fall. 2022 did very well for a Congressional-only election in the first term of a newly elected president, and the new redistricting plans (if they hold) seem likely to get us much closer to a representative Congress than the 2022 ones were. That was a surprisingly useful Supreme Court victory for Dems that came out just last week. So. *shrugs* Sometimes you gotta get the doom out, but I see reasons to hope for something better, too.
posted by sciatrix at 9:12 AM on October 2, 2023 [12 favorites]
(Recently, he responded to corporate complaints about worker shortages by releasing a helpful booklet on how to train new skilled employees. The cheek. I was delighted.)
That's not to say that it doesn't look hellishly bleak out there, or that the fragile progress of the past three years couldn't be wiped away with a bad run, or that stochastic terrorism and violence aren't still a permanent threat. Nor does it mean that the thing I noted, about watching my buying power going up in smoke over two years, isn't a real grief and frustration. But the best way to challenge the overcomplication of capital is to build a robust workers' lobby with distinctly different opinions about capital, and give it teeth to do something with. In a lot of ways, I see the emphasis on organized labor as our most promising shot at overcoming that complication--if for no other reason than that this movement has been the source of an awful lot of public education about workers' rights and exactly how much fat and meat is getting trimmed off before working people get the bones over the past century.
And I'm cautiously optimistic about this fall. 2022 did very well for a Congressional-only election in the first term of a newly elected president, and the new redistricting plans (if they hold) seem likely to get us much closer to a representative Congress than the 2022 ones were. That was a surprisingly useful Supreme Court victory for Dems that came out just last week. So. *shrugs* Sometimes you gotta get the doom out, but I see reasons to hope for something better, too.
posted by sciatrix at 9:12 AM on October 2, 2023 [12 favorites]
Increased spending is the expected rational economic response to high inflation.
Not trying to make a larger point with this, either, and not saying you, in particular, don't know this, but just an FYI to others who might read that and assume otherwise: high inflation -- in the U.S., at least -- has been over for a bit now, and it lasted less than two years. (Which, of course, doesn't mean that prices are coming down now, just that they're not going up by anywhere close to as much anymore.)
(Side note: I think that means the I-Bonds being recommended all over a year or so ago are now paying significantly less than a standard high interest savings account, though I'm not entirely clear how that's calculated.)
I guess I'm bothering to point this out mostly because inflation is nonetheless going to get trotted out as a reason to vote for Republicans next year, and/or to vote against policies that help people get health care, etc., and (from inadvisably glancing at the comments sections on general news sites) the media environment does seem to leave a good chunk of people unaware that we're no longer under its aegis.
posted by nobody at 9:35 AM on October 2, 2023 [4 favorites]
Not trying to make a larger point with this, either, and not saying you, in particular, don't know this, but just an FYI to others who might read that and assume otherwise: high inflation -- in the U.S., at least -- has been over for a bit now, and it lasted less than two years. (Which, of course, doesn't mean that prices are coming down now, just that they're not going up by anywhere close to as much anymore.)
(Side note: I think that means the I-Bonds being recommended all over a year or so ago are now paying significantly less than a standard high interest savings account, though I'm not entirely clear how that's calculated.)
I guess I'm bothering to point this out mostly because inflation is nonetheless going to get trotted out as a reason to vote for Republicans next year, and/or to vote against policies that help people get health care, etc., and (from inadvisably glancing at the comments sections on general news sites) the media environment does seem to leave a good chunk of people unaware that we're no longer under its aegis.
posted by nobody at 9:35 AM on October 2, 2023 [4 favorites]
I think it's worth noting that concert (or event) ticket pricing has gone full nutzo. One ticket to a national tour arena concert where you don't have a seat (SRO) can easily cost $1000 each.
That is a hell of a lot more than the $5 it used to take to see a Fugazi show when I was in college (Not the best example I know!) But tickets under $100 was very normal.
posted by djseafood at 10:38 AM on October 2, 2023 [1 favorite]
That is a hell of a lot more than the $5 it used to take to see a Fugazi show when I was in college (Not the best example I know!) But tickets under $100 was very normal.
posted by djseafood at 10:38 AM on October 2, 2023 [1 favorite]
I did find myself inside a feckin Gucci store last post-Xmas season with someone who was indeed buying a designer handbag. And you know what, I do judge anyone who spends that much money on a designer handbag. Sorry, I'm sure your handbag is very special to you and, yeah, I get that a handbag is for women what a giant pickup truck is for men but just no. NO. I was spitting nails about that experience for months.
Otherwise, I'm all in - I loathe that in the U.S., we are expected to self-fund retirement, self-fund college for your kid, weather medical debt emergencies (or just regular living) while Wall Street just fucks around. The Hedgefund guys are still spending like mad. Go see Beyonce. Go see Taylor Swift. Spend a king's ransom on dinner out. Our system of healthcare is doing nothing to ensure that we won't get into ever bigger catastrophes ahead. My Boomer mother is passing over her Gen-X kids to leave everything to her Millennial man-child and my Boomer MIL is giving all available cash she can get her hands on to various Nigerian Princes. Can I not just have some avocado toast before the climate crises ends avocados?
posted by amanda at 10:41 AM on October 2, 2023 [10 favorites]
Otherwise, I'm all in - I loathe that in the U.S., we are expected to self-fund retirement, self-fund college for your kid, weather medical debt emergencies (or just regular living) while Wall Street just fucks around. The Hedgefund guys are still spending like mad. Go see Beyonce. Go see Taylor Swift. Spend a king's ransom on dinner out. Our system of healthcare is doing nothing to ensure that we won't get into ever bigger catastrophes ahead. My Boomer mother is passing over her Gen-X kids to leave everything to her Millennial man-child and my Boomer MIL is giving all available cash she can get her hands on to various Nigerian Princes. Can I not just have some avocado toast before the climate crises ends avocados?
posted by amanda at 10:41 AM on October 2, 2023 [10 favorites]
Eh, I can't get on board even for judging how much people spend on bags. For one thing, there's a thriving pawn shop trade, so who knows how much she paid for it; for another thing, I spend plenty of money on things that are important to me but which someone else might reasonably argue are absurd, like dog training classes and gardening supplies.
I'm too damn tired to care what any individual human spends her pennies on.
posted by sciatrix at 10:56 AM on October 2, 2023 [7 favorites]
I'm too damn tired to care what any individual human spends her pennies on.
posted by sciatrix at 10:56 AM on October 2, 2023 [7 favorites]
I'm reminded of reading some book or other where it pointed out that there was no point in saving when you're broke, so you might as well buy yourself treats now.
posted by jenfullmoon at 11:33 AM on October 2, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by jenfullmoon at 11:33 AM on October 2, 2023 [2 favorites]
It's funny that WSJ mentions Ticketmaster without pointing out that, y'know, live concerts were not a major budget line item a few decades ago. It would be like scolding someone for splurging on a large pizza.
posted by credulous at 11:47 AM on October 2, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by credulous at 11:47 AM on October 2, 2023 [3 favorites]
We had a little money once"Raised on Robbery" Joni Mitchell 1974
They were pushing through a four lane highway
Government gave us three thousand dollars
You should have seen it fly away
First he bought a '57 Biscayne
He put it in the ditch
He drunk up all the rest
That son of a bitch...
(no reason; the OP just put that in my mind)
Drawing on a couple of separate thoughts in this thread: if tomorrow looks hopeless, then living for today isn't all that unreasonable... if there's soon a large young "middle" class who have "dropped out" - eg haven't amassed property or savings like their parents - and these people make common cause with the lower classes who have been more precarious for longer... maybe there would be more force and momentum for change?
The wealthy may need to invest in higher walls and more security.
posted by Artful Codger at 11:49 AM on October 2, 2023 [1 favorite]
It's funny that WSJ mentions Ticketmaster without pointing out that, y'know, live concerts were not a major budget line item a few decades ago.
Poker machines are a sucking parasite on Australian society. It's a tragedy, but I heard one pub owner lament, we just can't afford to stay open without poker machines. Like, there were no pubs in Australia before poker machines. Could you imagine selling beer in Australia? You'd go broke!
I see this kind of amnesia ray logic in all kinds of industries. You have to have microtransactions in games, for example.
posted by adept256 at 11:56 AM on October 2, 2023 [10 favorites]
Poker machines are a sucking parasite on Australian society. It's a tragedy, but I heard one pub owner lament, we just can't afford to stay open without poker machines. Like, there were no pubs in Australia before poker machines. Could you imagine selling beer in Australia? You'd go broke!
I see this kind of amnesia ray logic in all kinds of industries. You have to have microtransactions in games, for example.
posted by adept256 at 11:56 AM on October 2, 2023 [10 favorites]
live concerts were not a major budget line item a few decades ago.
When I went to concerts in 1995, they were $20 (Matthew Sweet for example), and I just paid $40 (with fees) for a concert of an approximately equally famous band (TV Girl). I recall paying $50 to see Paul McCartney that year, same crappy seats as a friend who got face-value Taylor Swift tickets for $99 at approximately the same price.
IMO, the prices are pretty similar, but the modern price-discovery of scalped ticket prices is different, and there are more 'levels' of prices than there were in the old days.
posted by The_Vegetables at 12:07 PM on October 2, 2023 [2 favorites]
When I went to concerts in 1995, they were $20 (Matthew Sweet for example), and I just paid $40 (with fees) for a concert of an approximately equally famous band (TV Girl). I recall paying $50 to see Paul McCartney that year, same crappy seats as a friend who got face-value Taylor Swift tickets for $99 at approximately the same price.
IMO, the prices are pretty similar, but the modern price-discovery of scalped ticket prices is different, and there are more 'levels' of prices than there were in the old days.
posted by The_Vegetables at 12:07 PM on October 2, 2023 [2 favorites]
I think post-pandemic there's a draw to get back in rooms and scream with a couple hundred people again. I remember spending $45 per person to get on the lawn and see a show decades ago. I was underage so my father went. We went to see another show this year and it wasn't that much more.
posted by Selena777 at 12:24 PM on October 2, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by Selena777 at 12:24 PM on October 2, 2023 [1 favorite]
IMO, the prices are pretty similar
Very much depends on the band and the venue. I go to concerts a lot, and sometimes it's like $40. But then you get stuff like, I'm going to see Liz Phair at the Ryman at the end of November, and the ticket prices on the website were (without looking it up) something like $50, but when I actually went to buy them I got passed through by the Ryman website to something like Ticketmaster that isn't Ticketmaster, and the price is suddenly $115. I don't know why - maybe somebody bought up all the tickets and these were resale prices - but it's annoying when the advertised price is so wildly different from what you end up paying.
posted by joannemerriam at 1:10 PM on October 2, 2023 [2 favorites]
Very much depends on the band and the venue. I go to concerts a lot, and sometimes it's like $40. But then you get stuff like, I'm going to see Liz Phair at the Ryman at the end of November, and the ticket prices on the website were (without looking it up) something like $50, but when I actually went to buy them I got passed through by the Ryman website to something like Ticketmaster that isn't Ticketmaster, and the price is suddenly $115. I don't know why - maybe somebody bought up all the tickets and these were resale prices - but it's annoying when the advertised price is so wildly different from what you end up paying.
posted by joannemerriam at 1:10 PM on October 2, 2023 [2 favorites]
Concert ticket prices aren't a good example anyway because the bottom fell out of the recording industry multiple decades ago at this point. In 1995, a tour was a loss leader to promote an album. Now, the album is a loss leader to promote a tour.
posted by rhymedirective at 1:17 PM on October 2, 2023 [9 favorites]
posted by rhymedirective at 1:17 PM on October 2, 2023 [9 favorites]
I think post-pandemic there's a draw to get back in rooms and scream with a couple hundred people again.
Except it's not post-pandemic, and people are absolutely spreading COVID when they scream in those rooms. Which is all the more reason I guess for some folks to go to the show, since they might be permanently disabled next month by the virus they already have, so at least they saw the show before Long COVID prevented them from ever going to another show again.
posted by hydropsyche at 2:43 PM on October 2, 2023 [9 favorites]
Except it's not post-pandemic, and people are absolutely spreading COVID when they scream in those rooms. Which is all the more reason I guess for some folks to go to the show, since they might be permanently disabled next month by the virus they already have, so at least they saw the show before Long COVID prevented them from ever going to another show again.
posted by hydropsyche at 2:43 PM on October 2, 2023 [9 favorites]
I mean, aren’t we supposed to be constantly spending? That’s what all those companies listed on the stock exchanges are endlessly hectoring us to do. Spend, spend, spend! Buy, buy, buy!
WSJ readers don't necessarily care about consumer spending -- plenty of companies listed on stock exchanges have the US government as their primary customer. What readers want to know is the future. Will you spend tomorrow? Because this feeds into the general economy, and inflation (and Fed's response to inflation). If consumers cut back spending in response to inflation, thats maybe not great for stocks but also kinda good news for bonds if it means inflation is over and the fed maybe even cuts rates.
Relatedly, people want to know if this spending is debt fueled or income fueled, as spending via debt will end sooner than spending via income. And that helps them predict future behavior which helps predict interest rates. More nuanced takes suggest that while household debt is up, debt:income ratios are stable so this may be a sustainable change.
For managers of consumer facing companies, I'm sure they want us to spend more, but they also want to have just enough inventory to sell. Too little, and they miss a sale. Too much, and they wasted money creating, shipping, storing, and marketing things. So they want to know if layoffs or other recessions are in the mix. The COVID pandemic response kicked a lot of forecasting tools in the teeth, and geopolitical actions compounded this, so they look for supplemental information like consumer sentiment and anecdotes like this article. But... while this article isn't in the opinion section, it's also incredibly easy to cheerlead such articles in one direction or the other by leaning on anecdotes (as heywood mentions).
So looking at more quantitative data, the answer seems to be just under 5% growth of GDP this quarter, which is... double last quarter. This is pretty good!
posted by pwnguin at 2:56 PM on October 2, 2023 [3 favorites]
WSJ readers don't necessarily care about consumer spending -- plenty of companies listed on stock exchanges have the US government as their primary customer. What readers want to know is the future. Will you spend tomorrow? Because this feeds into the general economy, and inflation (and Fed's response to inflation). If consumers cut back spending in response to inflation, thats maybe not great for stocks but also kinda good news for bonds if it means inflation is over and the fed maybe even cuts rates.
Relatedly, people want to know if this spending is debt fueled or income fueled, as spending via debt will end sooner than spending via income. And that helps them predict future behavior which helps predict interest rates. More nuanced takes suggest that while household debt is up, debt:income ratios are stable so this may be a sustainable change.
For managers of consumer facing companies, I'm sure they want us to spend more, but they also want to have just enough inventory to sell. Too little, and they miss a sale. Too much, and they wasted money creating, shipping, storing, and marketing things. So they want to know if layoffs or other recessions are in the mix. The COVID pandemic response kicked a lot of forecasting tools in the teeth, and geopolitical actions compounded this, so they look for supplemental information like consumer sentiment and anecdotes like this article. But... while this article isn't in the opinion section, it's also incredibly easy to cheerlead such articles in one direction or the other by leaning on anecdotes (as heywood mentions).
So looking at more quantitative data, the answer seems to be just under 5% growth of GDP this quarter, which is... double last quarter. This is pretty good!
posted by pwnguin at 2:56 PM on October 2, 2023 [3 favorites]
The other part of the equation is real estate investing. If Americans are spending money, it's money they can't save up to outbid one another on housing. Real estate investors need to know where interest rates are headed as it affects the industry pretty much directly. Everyone's talking about a housing shortage where people don't want to move because refinancing would double their mortgage payment. So even though rates are high, prices don't fall, supply just vanishes.
posted by pwnguin at 3:03 PM on October 2, 2023
posted by pwnguin at 3:03 PM on October 2, 2023
Plus higher mortgage rates give landlords pricing power to raise rents, since the alternative good (acquired by the home purchase) is rising in price thanks to the Fed.
IMO Fed policy should not be lowering & raising mortgage rates like they have. Too much gasoline / Halon application.
Just give everybody 5% fixed for 30 and be done with it.
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 3:11 PM on October 2, 2023
IMO Fed policy should not be lowering & raising mortgage rates like they have. Too much gasoline / Halon application.
Just give everybody 5% fixed for 30 and be done with it.
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 3:11 PM on October 2, 2023
IMO Fed policy should not be lowering & raising mortgage rates like they have. Too much gasoline / Halon application.
Wait till you see what happens in Australia, where the government doesn't intervene in the market to issue fixed rates, everyone is on variable, so when we raised mortgage rates from 2% to 6% it changed everyone's repayment rates, because the bank still holds you to the same repayment term - so monthly repayment of all mortgages went up by 65%.
On one hand, this is exactly what we want - we're able to suppress spending on the entire population with smaller interest rate rises, more equally, rather than selectively suppressing spending on just the population of potential home buyers and having to raise rates higher.
On the other hand, being able to control inflation with a lower level of rate rises more fairly distributed across the population isn't entirely doing the trick because then this leaves us with a lower interest rate than the US, deteriorating the currency and leads to imported inflation.
posted by xdvesper at 3:43 PM on October 2, 2023 [1 favorite]
Wait till you see what happens in Australia, where the government doesn't intervene in the market to issue fixed rates, everyone is on variable, so when we raised mortgage rates from 2% to 6% it changed everyone's repayment rates, because the bank still holds you to the same repayment term - so monthly repayment of all mortgages went up by 65%.
On one hand, this is exactly what we want - we're able to suppress spending on the entire population with smaller interest rate rises, more equally, rather than selectively suppressing spending on just the population of potential home buyers and having to raise rates higher.
On the other hand, being able to control inflation with a lower level of rate rises more fairly distributed across the population isn't entirely doing the trick because then this leaves us with a lower interest rate than the US, deteriorating the currency and leads to imported inflation.
posted by xdvesper at 3:43 PM on October 2, 2023 [1 favorite]
we're able to suppress spending on the entire population
Not really. We're able to suppress the spending of mortgage holders, which is an increasingly small subset of the entire population and actually a decreasing subset of house buyers. Which is quite a problem for the RBA.
posted by deadwax at 4:02 PM on October 2, 2023
Not really. We're able to suppress the spending of mortgage holders, which is an increasingly small subset of the entire population and actually a decreasing subset of house buyers. Which is quite a problem for the RBA.
posted by deadwax at 4:02 PM on October 2, 2023
... Canada too! I remember seeing the home-price appreciation up in Canada during COVID and just wondering if they were following in Japan's 1980s-bubble-fever footprints.
in 1991-92 LA's Japanese language TV station carried a subtitled "Even through all that, we bought the house" (spoiler: they end up in a mountainside subdivision like 2 hrs away from Tokyo) which gave me a first glimpse of the insanity of bubble Japan, with all the FOMO and being locked out of housing due to being outbid by others.
Japan has 3M total immigrant now apparently, but that is 1/10th of the immigration Canada & Australia have accepted on a per-capita basis.
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 4:36 PM on October 2, 2023
in 1991-92 LA's Japanese language TV station carried a subtitled "Even through all that, we bought the house" (spoiler: they end up in a mountainside subdivision like 2 hrs away from Tokyo) which gave me a first glimpse of the insanity of bubble Japan, with all the FOMO and being locked out of housing due to being outbid by others.
Japan has 3M total immigrant now apparently, but that is 1/10th of the immigration Canada & Australia have accepted on a per-capita basis.
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 4:36 PM on October 2, 2023
Not really. We're able to suppress the spending of mortgage holders, which is an increasingly small subset of the entire population and actually a decreasing subset of house buyers. Which is quite a problem for the RBA.
Sure, I was talking about entire population of mortgage holders. There are about 6 million open mortgages in Australia on 10 million homes, versus 600,000 home buyers each year, if we assume a similar ratio like the point you make about less people needing a mortgage, then 360,000 will open a mortgage. My point is that having rising interest rates affect the spending the 6 million mortgage holders by a little bit each makes a heck of a lot more sense than affecting the spending of just 360,000 new home buyers by a lot to achieve the same level of reduced aggregate demand.
posted by xdvesper at 5:54 PM on October 2, 2023 [1 favorite]
Sure, I was talking about entire population of mortgage holders. There are about 6 million open mortgages in Australia on 10 million homes, versus 600,000 home buyers each year, if we assume a similar ratio like the point you make about less people needing a mortgage, then 360,000 will open a mortgage. My point is that having rising interest rates affect the spending the 6 million mortgage holders by a little bit each makes a heck of a lot more sense than affecting the spending of just 360,000 new home buyers by a lot to achieve the same level of reduced aggregate demand.
posted by xdvesper at 5:54 PM on October 2, 2023 [1 favorite]
The luxuries I waste my money on are Reasonable or Necessary and the stuff other people buy is Frivolous and Wasteful.
...hahaha but seriously, I'm actually saving a lot but also not as much as I would be if it were remotely possible for me to buy a house in the Bay Area, which....god, if I could port my current financial state back to 2013 prices and interest rates, sure, but it's not happening this decade. Every time I see a "San Francisco is dead" media piece I just laugh. I don't care how many people (supposedly?) move, it doesn't manifest in property prices.
posted by grandiloquiet at 7:35 PM on October 2, 2023 [3 favorites]
...hahaha but seriously, I'm actually saving a lot but also not as much as I would be if it were remotely possible for me to buy a house in the Bay Area, which....god, if I could port my current financial state back to 2013 prices and interest rates, sure, but it's not happening this decade. Every time I see a "San Francisco is dead" media piece I just laugh. I don't care how many people (supposedly?) move, it doesn't manifest in property prices.
posted by grandiloquiet at 7:35 PM on October 2, 2023 [3 favorites]
For many people born in the 1920s, 30s, 40s--early end of the boomers, but not the late end--inflation in the 1970s was a big leg up--if your wages kept up with inflation. People with the ability to adjust or negotiate their wages kept up with inflation, and watched their 30-year fixed rate mortgages shrink away to chump change.
As a very young adult in the 1980s, working lower-level jobs in credit and finance, I saw this all the time: people who had bought homes in the late 1960s, who were living in three-bedroom suburban ranch homes, and whose monthly housing costs were only half or a third of what I was paying to rent a one-bedroom apartment in the city.
What did they have then that we don't have now? Unions, for one thing.
Also a lingering reason why Washington and Wall Street really hate inflation. Banks were big losers in that situation.
Very different situation today. Today it's "milk's going up again, sorry, sucks to be you". Much less leverage to push wages up to compensate.
posted by gimonca at 4:45 AM on October 3, 2023 [4 favorites]
As a very young adult in the 1980s, working lower-level jobs in credit and finance, I saw this all the time: people who had bought homes in the late 1960s, who were living in three-bedroom suburban ranch homes, and whose monthly housing costs were only half or a third of what I was paying to rent a one-bedroom apartment in the city.
What did they have then that we don't have now? Unions, for one thing.
Also a lingering reason why Washington and Wall Street really hate inflation. Banks were big losers in that situation.
Very different situation today. Today it's "milk's going up again, sorry, sucks to be you". Much less leverage to push wages up to compensate.
posted by gimonca at 4:45 AM on October 3, 2023 [4 favorites]
wage-driven inflation is a transfer of money from people who don't work to people who do work, and can be a very good thing, since in wage-driven inflation there is an inevitable gap between when the cost of labor-time goes up and when the cost of non-labor-time commodities rise to soak up the new effective demand.
there are of course problems involved in wage-driven inflation. most notably, retirees and other people who don't work for a living for good reasons get hit alongside the people who don't work for a living because they own for a living, at least unless there's increases to social security, disability payments, and so forth that match the increases in wages.
this is why the best inflation is inflation generated through broadly distributed money-for-nothing payments, which function as a straightforward transfer of wealth from the people who own things for a living to the people who have nothing to sell. the ideal is, of course, a meaningfully large inflation-indexed universal basic income, which would through cascading demand-side inflation rapidly devalue the holdings of people who own things for a living while rapidly increasing generalized human prosperity and dignity.
of course, the type of price-driven inflation we've been experiencing lately does the opposite — channels money towards the people who own and away from everyone else — and can be understood as a type of capital strike. the folks who own things for a living were startled by the brief period of good inflation driven by pandemic payments, etc., and they have responded to that scare by collectively disciplining non-owners through price increases, not just closing the gap between prices and wages but also arranging for prices to shoot up past wages. although this strategy makes the economy on the whole worse, it ensures that what's left of the economy remains in the hands of people who own things for a living.
note that the coördination involved here doesn't require backroom conspiracy, because prices are publicly known. just as a bunch of gas station owners don't need to talk with each other to raise prices in lockstep — they can just go outside and look at the numbers posted on the bigass signs outside of every gas station — likewise people selling eggs and cereal can step up prices together without directly consulting each other.
this is of course simplified when there's monopolies specifically in the sectors that sell the package of commodities — most notably, food — required for a person to live a minimally acceptable life, since a monopoly can raise prices for the whole sector with no coördination whatsoever with any outside entity and since the purchase of these goods at whatever price the monopoly requests is more or less mandatory for everyone with an interest in not starving.
posted by bombastic lowercase pronouncements at 9:04 AM on October 3, 2023 [6 favorites]
there are of course problems involved in wage-driven inflation. most notably, retirees and other people who don't work for a living for good reasons get hit alongside the people who don't work for a living because they own for a living, at least unless there's increases to social security, disability payments, and so forth that match the increases in wages.
this is why the best inflation is inflation generated through broadly distributed money-for-nothing payments, which function as a straightforward transfer of wealth from the people who own things for a living to the people who have nothing to sell. the ideal is, of course, a meaningfully large inflation-indexed universal basic income, which would through cascading demand-side inflation rapidly devalue the holdings of people who own things for a living while rapidly increasing generalized human prosperity and dignity.
of course, the type of price-driven inflation we've been experiencing lately does the opposite — channels money towards the people who own and away from everyone else — and can be understood as a type of capital strike. the folks who own things for a living were startled by the brief period of good inflation driven by pandemic payments, etc., and they have responded to that scare by collectively disciplining non-owners through price increases, not just closing the gap between prices and wages but also arranging for prices to shoot up past wages. although this strategy makes the economy on the whole worse, it ensures that what's left of the economy remains in the hands of people who own things for a living.
note that the coördination involved here doesn't require backroom conspiracy, because prices are publicly known. just as a bunch of gas station owners don't need to talk with each other to raise prices in lockstep — they can just go outside and look at the numbers posted on the bigass signs outside of every gas station — likewise people selling eggs and cereal can step up prices together without directly consulting each other.
this is of course simplified when there's monopolies specifically in the sectors that sell the package of commodities — most notably, food — required for a person to live a minimally acceptable life, since a monopoly can raise prices for the whole sector with no coördination whatsoever with any outside entity and since the purchase of these goods at whatever price the monopoly requests is more or less mandatory for everyone with an interest in not starving.
posted by bombastic lowercase pronouncements at 9:04 AM on October 3, 2023 [6 favorites]
Unspoken by the pub owners and video game makers who say they're forced to have poker machines and microtransactions but no less relevant is the costs inflicted on them by people who own for a living. Commercial rents have gone up. Video game companies have shareholders who demand higher and higher profits.
posted by Nec_variat_lux_fracta_colorem at 12:00 PM on October 3, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by Nec_variat_lux_fracta_colorem at 12:00 PM on October 3, 2023 [2 favorites]
> IMO Fed policy should not be lowering & raising mortgage rates like they have. Too much gasoline / Halon application.
The fed funds rate definitely impacts mortgage rates but they're not federally regulated in the US at all. The banks set them to whatever they want. Inflation leads banks to hike rates because inflation makes loans easier to pay over time because it makes every dollar of the loan worth less in the future. Inflation is great for debtors if you have a fixed interest rate! America is pretty unusual in that 30 year fixed rate mortgages are much less common in other countries. Usually you get like a 5 or 2 year fixed rate and then it changes and you get another rate for another 5 year period. Rates probably should be regulated, for instance right now high rates make houses very expensive on top of the insane overall cost. But the all cash corporate investors don't have to take out mortgages, and have access to entirely different kinds of debt that they can use to buy investment properties, continuing the spiral of skyrocketing home prices, pushing normal people who just want to buy a damn home even further out the market. We should do something about that!
posted by dis_integration at 3:00 PM on October 3, 2023 [2 favorites]
The fed funds rate definitely impacts mortgage rates but they're not federally regulated in the US at all. The banks set them to whatever they want. Inflation leads banks to hike rates because inflation makes loans easier to pay over time because it makes every dollar of the loan worth less in the future. Inflation is great for debtors if you have a fixed interest rate! America is pretty unusual in that 30 year fixed rate mortgages are much less common in other countries. Usually you get like a 5 or 2 year fixed rate and then it changes and you get another rate for another 5 year period. Rates probably should be regulated, for instance right now high rates make houses very expensive on top of the insane overall cost. But the all cash corporate investors don't have to take out mortgages, and have access to entirely different kinds of debt that they can use to buy investment properties, continuing the spiral of skyrocketing home prices, pushing normal people who just want to buy a damn home even further out the market. We should do something about that!
posted by dis_integration at 3:00 PM on October 3, 2023 [2 favorites]
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