Zombie Apocalypse
November 1, 2023 11:46 AM Subscribe
I would question the author's suggestion that local governments need to offer subsidies. However, governments can adjust tax policy that apply the vacancy tax mentioned while also lowering taxes on other forms of use, e.g., if retail space vacancy is high, still keep a higher tax on empty space, while also lowering residential taxes specifically on that property zone type.
This would encourage the "free market" to make more efficient use of precious city real estate by converting it to forms that generate revenue over the longer term. As more people move into vacant space and reduce blight, there is a returned need for retail and other businesses, and rebalancing tax policies along the way would maximize revenue for the city to use for livability improvements (schools, fire/police/emergency, roads, etc.).
This would not need taxpayer subsidies, but simply a balanced approach that expects bank and business shareholders to pay their fair share, which also generates the revenue needed to encourage development that makes cities livable and desirable.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 12:06 PM on November 1, 2023 [18 favorites]
This would encourage the "free market" to make more efficient use of precious city real estate by converting it to forms that generate revenue over the longer term. As more people move into vacant space and reduce blight, there is a returned need for retail and other businesses, and rebalancing tax policies along the way would maximize revenue for the city to use for livability improvements (schools, fire/police/emergency, roads, etc.).
This would not need taxpayer subsidies, but simply a balanced approach that expects bank and business shareholders to pay their fair share, which also generates the revenue needed to encourage development that makes cities livable and desirable.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 12:06 PM on November 1, 2023 [18 favorites]
However, governments can adjust tax policy that apply the vacancy tax mentioned while also lowering taxes on other forms of use, e.g., if retail space vacancy is high, still keep a higher tax on empty space, while also lowering residential taxes specifically on that property zone type.
This is a good idea. Another thought might be making the vacancy tax extremely high, let's say 10% of the assessed value of the property. The appropriate consequence for hoarding land and excluding citizens from using it in any way ought to be confiscation.
posted by justsomebodythatyouusedtoknow at 12:20 PM on November 1, 2023 [32 favorites]
This is a good idea. Another thought might be making the vacancy tax extremely high, let's say 10% of the assessed value of the property. The appropriate consequence for hoarding land and excluding citizens from using it in any way ought to be confiscation.
posted by justsomebodythatyouusedtoknow at 12:20 PM on November 1, 2023 [32 favorites]
Wow! I wondered but would have never guessed. I assumed greed, but thought it was landlords, motivated by some unknown regulation.
Thanks for the article, frustrating as it is to learn it's a bigger kind of greed :(
posted by esoteric things at 12:23 PM on November 1, 2023 [13 favorites]
Thanks for the article, frustrating as it is to learn it's a bigger kind of greed :(
posted by esoteric things at 12:23 PM on November 1, 2023 [13 favorites]
>... to account for the way you're lowering the building's value by lowering its rental income.
It feels like there's something missing from the article's description of banks' decision making. If the bank values my building based solely on the rent I am asking for, rather than the rent I'm actually collecting, why wouldn't the ideal building from the bank's point of view be a completely vacant building with an advertised rate of $999999999999 per square foot? (I assume the answer is related to why I will forever be an engineer and not an entrepreneur or politician)
posted by mrgoldenbrown at 12:24 PM on November 1, 2023 [12 favorites]
It feels like there's something missing from the article's description of banks' decision making. If the bank values my building based solely on the rent I am asking for, rather than the rent I'm actually collecting, why wouldn't the ideal building from the bank's point of view be a completely vacant building with an advertised rate of $999999999999 per square foot? (I assume the answer is related to why I will forever be an engineer and not an entrepreneur or politician)
posted by mrgoldenbrown at 12:24 PM on November 1, 2023 [12 favorites]
The hidden culprit behind America’s boarded-up storefronts
Wait, wait, I know this one! It's shoplifting right?
It's not? It's corporate greed? Huh. Who'd have guessed.
posted by The Bellman at 12:25 PM on November 1, 2023 [25 favorites]
Wait, wait, I know this one! It's shoplifting right?
It's not? It's corporate greed? Huh. Who'd have guessed.
posted by The Bellman at 12:25 PM on November 1, 2023 [25 favorites]
In 2008, Marcus Westbury started a project to reactivate unused spaces in Newcastle. It worked, so it expanded its remit to cover the whole country: Renew Australia.
posted by d-no at 12:34 PM on November 1, 2023 [11 favorites]
posted by d-no at 12:34 PM on November 1, 2023 [11 favorites]
A variable vacancy tax would be great if we could do it.
After six months the tax is 10% of the assessed value of the property. After a year, 20%. After two years, 50%. After 3 years the property is taken and sold at auction to someone who wants to use it instead of hoard it.
posted by sotonohito at 12:42 PM on November 1, 2023 [41 favorites]
After six months the tax is 10% of the assessed value of the property. After a year, 20%. After two years, 50%. After 3 years the property is taken and sold at auction to someone who wants to use it instead of hoard it.
posted by sotonohito at 12:42 PM on November 1, 2023 [41 favorites]
The article seems to suggest that San Francisco is doing the right thing. But living here and walking around, where are the results? Supposedly the city is opening up spaces as pop up stores, galleries, etc but where? One of the things about hypothetical cities is continuity. The guy who runs the corner store in the neighborhood, you get know them, they get to know you. Loyalties are built. Pop up means transient. It’s there then it’s gone. Why form relationships with things destined to disappear in a few months. Maybe our current concept of a city is dying along with the city itself. And screw the banks, too.
posted by njohnson23 at 12:43 PM on November 1, 2023 [19 favorites]
posted by njohnson23 at 12:43 PM on November 1, 2023 [19 favorites]
There's a retail building of multiple store fronts in my neighborhood that's never been more than half full in the decade+ I've lived here. Included in that mix is a 20's era single screen movie/vaudeville theater.- it's sat empty since sometime in the 80's. I would kill for it to be a revival theater space, but they want ~$20K/mo on a NNN lease and the theater space needs the seats re-installed and roof work/etc - all on the new tenant.
The landlord has a sweetheart deal on the taxes thanks to Prop 13 and has been perfectly content to use it to store the Persian rugs he sells at another shop down the road.
A few blocks east, there's another retail block that's sitting utterly empty at the moment with only the occasional tenant in one of the units for a year or so before its empty again. Next to it is another property that's only half full as well.
All of this along the world famous Colorado Blvd in Pasadena. I don't know where exactly the blame sits, but any stew that allows a landlord to continue to sit on empty is a burnt and inedible mess.
posted by drewbage1847 at 12:46 PM on November 1, 2023 [26 favorites]
The landlord has a sweetheart deal on the taxes thanks to Prop 13 and has been perfectly content to use it to store the Persian rugs he sells at another shop down the road.
A few blocks east, there's another retail block that's sitting utterly empty at the moment with only the occasional tenant in one of the units for a year or so before its empty again. Next to it is another property that's only half full as well.
All of this along the world famous Colorado Blvd in Pasadena. I don't know where exactly the blame sits, but any stew that allows a landlord to continue to sit on empty is a burnt and inedible mess.
posted by drewbage1847 at 12:46 PM on November 1, 2023 [26 favorites]
On any article about the problems facing America, it’s like an episode of Scooby doo: it was corporations this whole time! Gee golly.
posted by The River Ivel at 12:46 PM on November 1, 2023 [37 favorites]
posted by The River Ivel at 12:46 PM on November 1, 2023 [37 favorites]
A piece of this puzzle that's missing for me is if banks prevent landlords from leasing, aren't landlords still on the hook for the mortgages? Where does that come from? Are banks just waiting for landlords to go bust and grab the overvalued property? Banks don't lose as they still have an overvalued property as an asset on their books? Even then banks can then continue to overprice the leases?
posted by 3.2.3 at 12:54 PM on November 1, 2023 [6 favorites]
posted by 3.2.3 at 12:54 PM on November 1, 2023 [6 favorites]
It does rather sound, based on this article, as if landlords are happy to just keep paying mortgages on empty buildings forever, which doesn't make much sense to me. Wouldn't a landlord who can't rent out their building to cover the mortgage let along reap landlord profits just... sell the building? Or can banks prevent them from doing that, too?
posted by hippybear at 12:58 PM on November 1, 2023 [7 favorites]
posted by hippybear at 12:58 PM on November 1, 2023 [7 favorites]
Mixed-use ground floor retail has been a pet peeve of mine for about a decade now. People read and codified Jane Jacobs without understanding that flexibility was/is a major component of ground floor viability. Everyone decided that every new apartment building required a fancy cafe at sidewalk level, and by god, if they built it, it would come. As if the organic qualities of successful streetscapes could be forcibly conjured, Disneyland style, into a vibrant downtown. Instead all over Oakland there are new places for people to live with perpetually empty ground floors that have remained that way for years.
posted by oneirodynia at 1:04 PM on November 1, 2023 [14 favorites]
posted by oneirodynia at 1:04 PM on November 1, 2023 [14 favorites]
On any article about the problems facing America, it’s like an episode of Scooby doo: it was corporations this whole time! Gee golly.
And if not corporations, your second guess should always be Richard Nixon.
posted by Hamusutaa at 1:12 PM on November 1, 2023 [3 favorites]
And if not corporations, your second guess should always be Richard Nixon.
posted by Hamusutaa at 1:12 PM on November 1, 2023 [3 favorites]
I'd actually put Ronald Reagan above Richard Nixon, when it comes to truly modern ills in our country.
posted by hippybear at 1:13 PM on November 1, 2023 [33 favorites]
posted by hippybear at 1:13 PM on November 1, 2023 [33 favorites]
A vacancy tax does strike me as a good idea, but there is a potential downside: "a vacancy tax would decrease the vacancy rate and rents but would lower tenant quality and lead to faster churn." If they rush too much to find a tenant, they might end up with tenants who aren't the best suited for the space.
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 1:14 PM on November 1, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 1:14 PM on November 1, 2023 [3 favorites]
Instead all over Oakland there are new places for people to live with perpetually empty ground floors that have remained that way for years.
Which is caused by the same inflexible financing. Even before they have a single tenant the developer has over valued the space to secure financing and now can't change it because of the holder of the paper.
I wonder if TFG's recent NY trouble will get at least some people thinking about bullshit evaluations of commercial real estate.
posted by Mitheral at 1:16 PM on November 1, 2023 [8 favorites]
Which is caused by the same inflexible financing. Even before they have a single tenant the developer has over valued the space to secure financing and now can't change it because of the holder of the paper.
I wonder if TFG's recent NY trouble will get at least some people thinking about bullshit evaluations of commercial real estate.
posted by Mitheral at 1:16 PM on November 1, 2023 [8 favorites]
How is tenant churn a problem, though? You might go through 4 businesses before one sticks, but isn't that just sort of retail everywhere? I mean, what is the life expectancy of a new restaurant? I think it's under two years.
posted by hippybear at 1:17 PM on November 1, 2023 [19 favorites]
posted by hippybear at 1:17 PM on November 1, 2023 [19 favorites]
And also, wasn't the origin of a lot of the "business on the ground floor, rental space up above" kind of developed back in the day where the person building the building also owned the business and lived on the floor immediately above the business, renting out the spaces above it for more income? That can't all have been landlord-developer speculation property to begin with when that style was started.
posted by hippybear at 1:19 PM on November 1, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by hippybear at 1:19 PM on November 1, 2023 [4 favorites]
Drew: I read your comment about the theater for Persian rugs and immediately thought: that’s my Pasadena. Sigh.
posted by samthemander at 1:19 PM on November 1, 2023 [6 favorites]
posted by samthemander at 1:19 PM on November 1, 2023 [6 favorites]
if banks prevent landlords from leasing, aren't landlords still on the hook for the mortgages? Where does that come from?
Extend and pretend. (just grabbed a quick link, can't vouch for every inch of the article)
posted by praemunire at 1:20 PM on November 1, 2023 [4 favorites]
Extend and pretend. (just grabbed a quick link, can't vouch for every inch of the article)
posted by praemunire at 1:20 PM on November 1, 2023 [4 favorites]
Churn seems like while a downer for landlords would be a benefit to communities in so much as any use of building is better than having it sit empty for years.
There was a pretty extreme example of this in my city where a bank branch in a prime retail location in a building named after the bank closed sometime in the 80s and that space remained vacant until 5-6 years ago. If 30 different coffeeshops had rotated through that would have been a win for the downtown core.
posted by Mitheral at 1:22 PM on November 1, 2023 [15 favorites]
There was a pretty extreme example of this in my city where a bank branch in a prime retail location in a building named after the bank closed sometime in the 80s and that space remained vacant until 5-6 years ago. If 30 different coffeeshops had rotated through that would have been a win for the downtown core.
posted by Mitheral at 1:22 PM on November 1, 2023 [15 favorites]
I mean, what is the life expectancy of a new restaurant? I think it's under two years.
Yeah, so poking around it seems 60%+ of restaurants don't survive their first year, and another large percentage close within 5 years, but if you survive as a restaurant for 5 years you're likely to still be there 20 years later.
posted by hippybear at 1:26 PM on November 1, 2023 [3 favorites]
Yeah, so poking around it seems 60%+ of restaurants don't survive their first year, and another large percentage close within 5 years, but if you survive as a restaurant for 5 years you're likely to still be there 20 years later.
posted by hippybear at 1:26 PM on November 1, 2023 [3 favorites]
A piece of this puzzle that's missing for me is if banks prevent landlords from leasing, aren't landlords still on the hook for the mortgages?
The article implies that long term leases mean landlords are still collecting rents on some of those vacant spaces. Obviously that doesn't happen if the leasee declares bankruptcy, which is one reason you wait for the tenant you expect to be stable or the retail chain.
So if you're a landlord with multiple properties, you have some percent that are vacant and only some percent of those that are vacant and not producing rent. I note this situation also gives you, the landlord, incentives to go along when the bank says don't lower the rent: If you can keep the supposed "market rate" propped up, you are losing on your vacant spots but gaining on the occupied ones.
Smaller landlords would be more screwed by this, of course, which also means they'd be more responsive to market conditions.
posted by mark k at 1:55 PM on November 1, 2023 [5 favorites]
The article implies that long term leases mean landlords are still collecting rents on some of those vacant spaces. Obviously that doesn't happen if the leasee declares bankruptcy, which is one reason you wait for the tenant you expect to be stable or the retail chain.
So if you're a landlord with multiple properties, you have some percent that are vacant and only some percent of those that are vacant and not producing rent. I note this situation also gives you, the landlord, incentives to go along when the bank says don't lower the rent: If you can keep the supposed "market rate" propped up, you are losing on your vacant spots but gaining on the occupied ones.
Smaller landlords would be more screwed by this, of course, which also means they'd be more responsive to market conditions.
posted by mark k at 1:55 PM on November 1, 2023 [5 favorites]
That's supposed to be the magic of capitalism — its ability to auto-adjust to anything the world throws at it. But that's not what is happening with vacant shops.
Capitalism might sound good on paper, but it's an economic system that just doesn't work in real life.
posted by AlSweigart at 2:21 PM on November 1, 2023 [30 favorites]
Capitalism might sound good on paper, but it's an economic system that just doesn't work in real life.
posted by AlSweigart at 2:21 PM on November 1, 2023 [30 favorites]
Some churn is good if tenants are adapting to the new consumer preferences - e.g., a baby store opening when more families move in - but there are costs. Financially, it takes resources to retrofit the space and so on, and there's always going to be some vacancy between tenants, which is the original problem. And socially, it seems intuitive that it's better for a neighborhood to have long-term businesses rather than churn, though you might disagree if you like to hit the hot new restaurant every year or two.
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 2:24 PM on November 1, 2023
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 2:24 PM on November 1, 2023
"Extend and pretend."
Somehow I don't see this as going on for the years and sometimes decades on the vacant buildings I'm seeing.
posted by 3.2.3 at 2:30 PM on November 1, 2023 [2 favorites]
Somehow I don't see this as going on for the years and sometimes decades on the vacant buildings I'm seeing.
posted by 3.2.3 at 2:30 PM on November 1, 2023 [2 favorites]
but there are costs. Financially, it takes resources to retrofit the space and so on
I'm struggling to absorb a worldview in which retrofitting a retail space to suit the needs of a, say, a dry good sales tenant to another dry goods sales tenant, isn't absorbed by the incoming tenant.
How is this the landlord's problem in any way?
posted by hippybear at 2:35 PM on November 1, 2023 [1 favorite]
I'm struggling to absorb a worldview in which retrofitting a retail space to suit the needs of a, say, a dry good sales tenant to another dry goods sales tenant, isn't absorbed by the incoming tenant.
How is this the landlord's problem in any way?
posted by hippybear at 2:35 PM on November 1, 2023 [1 favorite]
Landlords will often give tenants a rent abatement for the first couple of months to compensate their costs for adapting the space to their use. The tenant may not have the cashflow to pay rent as well as the amount needed to renovate the space but if they're good for the rent for the remainder of the lease then the landlord still comes out OK because they've worked that into the rent already.
posted by any portmanteau in a storm at 2:39 PM on November 1, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by any portmanteau in a storm at 2:39 PM on November 1, 2023 [2 favorites]
Somehow I don't see this as going on for the years and sometimes decades on the vacant buildings I'm seeing.
...okay? If you aren't looking at the leases and/or securitization docs, you're just going by your intuition, and most people's intuitions, reflecting as they do common sense, ordinary experience, and some idea that it's good to stick to your word, don't pick up on the advanced maneuvers of capital. Banks do foreclose on large commercial properties from time to time but they very much prefer not to.
posted by praemunire at 2:43 PM on November 1, 2023 [11 favorites]
...okay? If you aren't looking at the leases and/or securitization docs, you're just going by your intuition, and most people's intuitions, reflecting as they do common sense, ordinary experience, and some idea that it's good to stick to your word, don't pick up on the advanced maneuvers of capital. Banks do foreclose on large commercial properties from time to time but they very much prefer not to.
posted by praemunire at 2:43 PM on November 1, 2023 [11 favorites]
I think video games are a contributing factor. Hear me out :)
There are a couple of strip malls near me that have been largely boarded up for, I don't know how long. I don't know, because they are a visual blind spot for me, because they look like the buildings in video games you can't interact with. I've been trained to ignore those places, unless zombies start pouring out of them.
Only half joking.
posted by chromecow at 2:53 PM on November 1, 2023 [10 favorites]
There are a couple of strip malls near me that have been largely boarded up for, I don't know how long. I don't know, because they are a visual blind spot for me, because they look like the buildings in video games you can't interact with. I've been trained to ignore those places, unless zombies start pouring out of them.
Only half joking.
posted by chromecow at 2:53 PM on November 1, 2023 [10 favorites]
I've been trained to ignore those places, unless zombies start pouring out of them.
May I suggest a post-Halloween viewing of George Romero's Dawn Of The Dead to help you along with this sentiment? It contains applicable themes, although maybe from the opposite end.
posted by hippybear at 2:55 PM on November 1, 2023
May I suggest a post-Halloween viewing of George Romero's Dawn Of The Dead to help you along with this sentiment? It contains applicable themes, although maybe from the opposite end.
posted by hippybear at 2:55 PM on November 1, 2023
If they rush too much to find a tenant, they might end up with tenants who aren't the best suited for the space.
This would be a reasonable worry if the buildings were anything like full. With as many boarded up shops as there are, the landlords are either bad at choosing survivors or (article) actually want to do something else.
posted by clew at 2:59 PM on November 1, 2023 [6 favorites]
This would be a reasonable worry if the buildings were anything like full. With as many boarded up shops as there are, the landlords are either bad at choosing survivors or (article) actually want to do something else.
posted by clew at 2:59 PM on November 1, 2023 [6 favorites]
In my country part of why sites can be empty for a long time is that commercial leases are typically for 6 years (often with a clause allowing a rent increase at the end of the 3rd year). So if you think you can get a high-price tenant say two years from now, you might not want to write a low-price lease now and just try to wait it out. And this is the logic behind promoting pop-ups... they are short term leases. And there is an argument for long lease terms, they give price certainty to tenants and time to establish and build their operation. Shit's complicated, eh.
posted by i_am_joe's_spleen at 3:18 PM on November 1, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by i_am_joe's_spleen at 3:18 PM on November 1, 2023 [2 favorites]
I mean, what is the life expectancy of a new restaurant? I think it's under two years.
I take you think these corporate leases are on a month-to-month basis?
Having lots of churn means your entire corporate life is just a series of instances of bankruptcy litigation. Just because your restaurant dreams only lasted two years doesn't mean your 5+ year lease is going to get any shorter.
How is this the landlord's problem in any way?
That's why these sort of discussions are basically useless on MeFI. It's just a bunch of non-commercial landlords and non-commercial lease holders trying to solve problems that the landlords/lease holders don't even know exist.
posted by Back At It Again At Krispy Kreme at 3:19 PM on November 1, 2023 [9 favorites]
I take you think these corporate leases are on a month-to-month basis?
Having lots of churn means your entire corporate life is just a series of instances of bankruptcy litigation. Just because your restaurant dreams only lasted two years doesn't mean your 5+ year lease is going to get any shorter.
How is this the landlord's problem in any way?
That's why these sort of discussions are basically useless on MeFI. It's just a bunch of non-commercial landlords and non-commercial lease holders trying to solve problems that the landlords/lease holders don't even know exist.
posted by Back At It Again At Krispy Kreme at 3:19 PM on November 1, 2023 [9 favorites]
That's why these sort of discussions are basically useless on MeFI. It's just a bunch of non-commercial landlords and non-commercial lease holders trying to solve problems that the landlords/lease holders don't even know exist.
Maybe this is rather a reflection of how useless "capitalism" is when applied to real estate markets as they exist in current USA? Because honestly, if things are so fucking complicated that an average person can't just look at the deal and say whether it is working or not based on perceived market forces, then maybe the "invisible hand of the market" is way way way too invisible for that market to 1) be legible for normal market participants, 2) have actual natural market forces acting upon it, and 3) be allowed to exist without such strong regulation that what the end result is doesn't resemble what currently exists at all but instead is actually subject to markets and available money.
posted by hippybear at 3:27 PM on November 1, 2023 [8 favorites]
Maybe this is rather a reflection of how useless "capitalism" is when applied to real estate markets as they exist in current USA? Because honestly, if things are so fucking complicated that an average person can't just look at the deal and say whether it is working or not based on perceived market forces, then maybe the "invisible hand of the market" is way way way too invisible for that market to 1) be legible for normal market participants, 2) have actual natural market forces acting upon it, and 3) be allowed to exist without such strong regulation that what the end result is doesn't resemble what currently exists at all but instead is actually subject to markets and available money.
posted by hippybear at 3:27 PM on November 1, 2023 [8 favorites]
Anyway, as someone who has been on both sides of this sort of relationship in varying capacities, and is typing this very comment from the commercial real estate I pay a decent amount to lease:
If you think a vacancy tax will work, go to next city council meeting and see how many members of you local chamber of commerce are in attendance, and imaging those people (who have been going to these meetings for years, while you are probably here for the first time) voting against their own interests.
If you have a hip small downtown that seems to have parts of it stay empty, check who owns those buildings, and more importantly when they were bought. If that Bill Jones or whomever that spoke at your local city council meeting bought it 27 years ago when your downtown was a blasted out hellhole, maybe it's paid off and he doesn't want to rise and grind just to make a few extra bucks when he could just sell it when he wants to retire.
Commercial leases are typically 5 or more years. Often you have to open up your books to your landlord. The intersection of businesses that are willing to sign 5 or 10 year leases and have the books to prove they can do so is smaller than you think. Commercial landlords aren't going to want to do Tenant Improvements and then just wing it on someone who might flame out in 7 months, requiring the process to start over.
posted by Back At It Again At Krispy Kreme at 3:28 PM on November 1, 2023 [7 favorites]
If you think a vacancy tax will work, go to next city council meeting and see how many members of you local chamber of commerce are in attendance, and imaging those people (who have been going to these meetings for years, while you are probably here for the first time) voting against their own interests.
If you have a hip small downtown that seems to have parts of it stay empty, check who owns those buildings, and more importantly when they were bought. If that Bill Jones or whomever that spoke at your local city council meeting bought it 27 years ago when your downtown was a blasted out hellhole, maybe it's paid off and he doesn't want to rise and grind just to make a few extra bucks when he could just sell it when he wants to retire.
Commercial leases are typically 5 or more years. Often you have to open up your books to your landlord. The intersection of businesses that are willing to sign 5 or 10 year leases and have the books to prove they can do so is smaller than you think. Commercial landlords aren't going to want to do Tenant Improvements and then just wing it on someone who might flame out in 7 months, requiring the process to start over.
posted by Back At It Again At Krispy Kreme at 3:28 PM on November 1, 2023 [7 favorites]
I feel like the current most urgent battle in the world today, whether this is politics or markets or whatever, is the battle between "we're a free place [be it speech or markets] and we should be allowed to do this" vs "we're a rational place [be it speech or markets] and there need to be limits on what we know is healthy to allow to continue".
posted by hippybear at 3:29 PM on November 1, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by hippybear at 3:29 PM on November 1, 2023 [4 favorites]
Commercial leases are typically 5 or more years.
This is the problem.
posted by hippybear at 3:31 PM on November 1, 2023 [3 favorites]
This is the problem.
posted by hippybear at 3:31 PM on November 1, 2023 [3 favorites]
if things are so fucking complicated that an average person can't just look at the deal and say whether it is working or not based on perceived market forces
I'm sure this "average person" would do just great trying to navigate whatever regulatory process you have in mind, especially since these average people don't even know the extensive regulatory processes that currently exists in the first place.
posted by Back At It Again At Krispy Kreme at 3:32 PM on November 1, 2023 [3 favorites]
I'm sure this "average person" would do just great trying to navigate whatever regulatory process you have in mind, especially since these average people don't even know the extensive regulatory processes that currently exists in the first place.
posted by Back At It Again At Krispy Kreme at 3:32 PM on November 1, 2023 [3 favorites]
This is the problem.
To the non-business owners on this website, perhaps. To actual business owners, knowing your leasing costs years in advance and having an enforceable contract that states these costs, not so much.
posted by Back At It Again At Krispy Kreme at 3:34 PM on November 1, 2023 [5 favorites]
To the non-business owners on this website, perhaps. To actual business owners, knowing your leasing costs years in advance and having an enforceable contract that states these costs, not so much.
posted by Back At It Again At Krispy Kreme at 3:34 PM on November 1, 2023 [5 favorites]
A long lease can work for both parties though. The landlord knows they'll be getting rent and the tenant knows that they're not going to be forced out in 2 years after they've built up a customer base that expects them to be there. Where I am (Ontario) there's no security of tenure for commercial tenants so at the end of your lease the landlord can force you to go unless you have some renewal right built into the contract. Sometimes a party will want a shorter lease but 5 years seems to be a common enough term because its long enough that it gives some sense that it'll be in place for the foreseeable future but not too long that you're worried you'll be forever stuck in a lease you no longer want.
posted by any portmanteau in a storm at 3:40 PM on November 1, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by any portmanteau in a storm at 3:40 PM on November 1, 2023 [2 favorites]
As someone not on the business side of it, I want this address from the perspective that it's bad for the city and the people to have large swathes of the area sitting fallow. It looks bad, there's less economic activity, the area feels like a dead zone and there's less community involvement.
Not everywhere has to be super activated (like what Pasadena did when they did a concerted re-development effort on Old Town and turned it from a not so nice neck of the woods into the city's entertainment/retail district - although that's now bounced to the other side where the rents are so astronomical that the only people that can open are overwhelmingly national/regional brands which sucks in a different way)
Anything that can balance out the needs of the city community and the property owners would be welcome - no the property owners shouldn't be made to bear all the risk, but nor should they be rewarded for allowing their property to sit dormant/dead.
On the lease terms bit - if you pay attention to the beer world like I do - you'll see a number of places closing right now - in part because of other market forces, but also in part because a number of them are coming up on 5 years with a lease renewal that they can't meet.
posted by drewbage1847 at 3:43 PM on November 1, 2023 [9 favorites]
Not everywhere has to be super activated (like what Pasadena did when they did a concerted re-development effort on Old Town and turned it from a not so nice neck of the woods into the city's entertainment/retail district - although that's now bounced to the other side where the rents are so astronomical that the only people that can open are overwhelmingly national/regional brands which sucks in a different way)
Anything that can balance out the needs of the city community and the property owners would be welcome - no the property owners shouldn't be made to bear all the risk, but nor should they be rewarded for allowing their property to sit dormant/dead.
On the lease terms bit - if you pay attention to the beer world like I do - you'll see a number of places closing right now - in part because of other market forces, but also in part because a number of them are coming up on 5 years with a lease renewal that they can't meet.
posted by drewbage1847 at 3:43 PM on November 1, 2023 [9 favorites]
What if some national commercial credit union formed, where they'd rent a retail space as a 10-year lease, and then it's their responsibility to find tenants, and they can let mom-and-pop shops have 5-year subleases or whatever. And the bank that has the mortgage on the building knows that the credit union is good for it. And the credit union is highly motivated to fill the space if it's empty.
posted by Galaxor Nebulon at 3:47 PM on November 1, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by Galaxor Nebulon at 3:47 PM on November 1, 2023 [1 favorite]
As someone not on the business side of it, I want this address from the perspective that it's bad for the city and the people to have large swathes of the area sitting fallow. It looks bad, there's less economic activity, the area feels like a dead zone and there's less community involvement.
Something that comes up at those city council meetings but mainly in the form of “we need more cops”.
posted by Artw at 3:51 PM on November 1, 2023 [5 favorites]
Something that comes up at those city council meetings but mainly in the form of “we need more cops”.
posted by Artw at 3:51 PM on November 1, 2023 [5 favorites]
Something that comes up at those city council meetings but mainly in the form of “we need more cops”.Yeah, I prefer solutions that make my life more enjoyable and safer than that. A new retro theater and a place to get a bite to eat sounds much more useful economically and lifely than another patrol car. It's just easier to directly add the patrol car.
posted by drewbage1847 at 3:56 PM on November 1, 2023 [6 favorites]
Appreciate the note on CBMS loans which are financial bullshit we should be killing with legislation:
“And if your financing comes through what's known as a CMBS — commercial mortgage-backed securities — you're going to need even more Dios to vaya with. CMBS lenders — the commercial equivalent of the giant cesspools of residential mortgages that crashed the global economy back in '08 — are far less likely than banks to modify the terms of individual loans. Before the pandemic, banks modified about 2% of their loans a quarter and CMBS lenders modified 0.1%. From 2020 to 2022, bank loan modifications got as high as 17%, but CMBS barely brushed up against 5%.
In other words, lots of landlords are sitting on space they can't rent, financed by deals they can't alter. And the future will be full of even higher vacancy rates, higher interest rates, and lower rents. What's a downtown property owner to do? "I can summarize it in two words," Greensfelder says. "They're fucked."”
Also, props to the author for finding this guy to interview. BI isn’t usually this colorful.
posted by q*ben at 3:57 PM on November 1, 2023 [5 favorites]
“And if your financing comes through what's known as a CMBS — commercial mortgage-backed securities — you're going to need even more Dios to vaya with. CMBS lenders — the commercial equivalent of the giant cesspools of residential mortgages that crashed the global economy back in '08 — are far less likely than banks to modify the terms of individual loans. Before the pandemic, banks modified about 2% of their loans a quarter and CMBS lenders modified 0.1%. From 2020 to 2022, bank loan modifications got as high as 17%, but CMBS barely brushed up against 5%.
In other words, lots of landlords are sitting on space they can't rent, financed by deals they can't alter. And the future will be full of even higher vacancy rates, higher interest rates, and lower rents. What's a downtown property owner to do? "I can summarize it in two words," Greensfelder says. "They're fucked."”
Also, props to the author for finding this guy to interview. BI isn’t usually this colorful.
posted by q*ben at 3:57 PM on November 1, 2023 [5 favorites]
To the non-business owners on this website, perhaps. To actual business owners, knowing your leasing costs years in advance and having an enforceable contract that states these costs, not so much.
Why are "business owners" treated in the marketplace differently from "home owners"? Why is real estate skewed in a way that yearly leases are the norm for people who just need a roof over their heads in order to exist while leases for a business, in which nobody lives and likely is leased by an entity that isn't an actual human but is a corporation, are given priority for property?
This entire system is fucked because the playing field isn't level. If the ideal market is that all players are equal, than nothing you've described here applies to how an actual Free Market would work.
posted by hippybear at 4:02 PM on November 1, 2023 [4 favorites]
Why are "business owners" treated in the marketplace differently from "home owners"? Why is real estate skewed in a way that yearly leases are the norm for people who just need a roof over their heads in order to exist while leases for a business, in which nobody lives and likely is leased by an entity that isn't an actual human but is a corporation, are given priority for property?
This entire system is fucked because the playing field isn't level. If the ideal market is that all players are equal, than nothing you've described here applies to how an actual Free Market would work.
posted by hippybear at 4:02 PM on November 1, 2023 [4 favorites]
How come cities don't run (or at least help organize) more CDFI's (community development financial institutions) that are focused at bringing funding to improve the community, at the community level?
We use our local taxes to subsidize such huge projects. Why not small mom-and-popup-shops too?
posted by rebent at 4:03 PM on November 1, 2023 [2 favorites]
We use our local taxes to subsidize such huge projects. Why not small mom-and-popup-shops too?
posted by rebent at 4:03 PM on November 1, 2023 [2 favorites]
Why are "business owners" treated in the marketplace differently from "home owners"?
Because they have different market needs, roles and demands? I mean, if I get an apartment for six months I've had six months of housing. If many businesses get a space for six months they've have zero months of business.
Why is real estate skewed in a way that yearly leases are the norm for people who just need a roof over their heads in order to exist while leases for a business, in which nobody lives and likely is leased by an entity that isn't an actual human but is a corporation, are given priority for property?
Are you arguing that the market should require people who want a place to live to sign multi-year leases? Because that's what's going on with retail space. It was the point of the OP. The reason residential leases aren't like that is in large part because the people who sign them don't want to be locked up like that.
I don't see how the difference is giving one type of tenant or another a "priority."
posted by mark k at 4:08 PM on November 1, 2023 [3 favorites]
Because they have different market needs, roles and demands? I mean, if I get an apartment for six months I've had six months of housing. If many businesses get a space for six months they've have zero months of business.
Why is real estate skewed in a way that yearly leases are the norm for people who just need a roof over their heads in order to exist while leases for a business, in which nobody lives and likely is leased by an entity that isn't an actual human but is a corporation, are given priority for property?
Are you arguing that the market should require people who want a place to live to sign multi-year leases? Because that's what's going on with retail space. It was the point of the OP. The reason residential leases aren't like that is in large part because the people who sign them don't want to be locked up like that.
I don't see how the difference is giving one type of tenant or another a "priority."
posted by mark k at 4:08 PM on November 1, 2023 [3 favorites]
If you think a vacancy tax will work, go to next city council meeting and see how many members of you local chamber of commerce are in attendance, and imaging those people (who have been going to these meetings for years, while you are probably here for the first time) voting against their own interests.
If you have a hip small downtown that seems to have parts of it stay empty, check who owns those buildings, and more importantly when they were bought. If that Bill Jones or whomever that spoke at your local city council meeting bought it 27 years ago when your downtown was a blasted out hellhole, maybe it's paid off and he doesn't want to rise and grind just to make a few extra bucks when he could just sell it when he wants to retire.
Downtown Kingston is a jewelbox of an area: faces Lake Ontario, OG limestone buildings as well as cobblestone streets in the core. Nearly all of the retail spaces for rent or lease are owned by two prominent Kingston families. The amount they charge for these spaces is eye-opening. Right now there are quite a few vacant storefronts on some of the most heavily trafficked streets. It is my understanding that they will make money off those buildings regardless whether or not they get long term tenants, so they have no incentive to court businesses. They expect the businesses to court them.
These are the people who show up all the time at your city council meetings. They know how to work the system.
posted by Kitteh at 4:09 PM on November 1, 2023 [11 favorites]
If you have a hip small downtown that seems to have parts of it stay empty, check who owns those buildings, and more importantly when they were bought. If that Bill Jones or whomever that spoke at your local city council meeting bought it 27 years ago when your downtown was a blasted out hellhole, maybe it's paid off and he doesn't want to rise and grind just to make a few extra bucks when he could just sell it when he wants to retire.
Downtown Kingston is a jewelbox of an area: faces Lake Ontario, OG limestone buildings as well as cobblestone streets in the core. Nearly all of the retail spaces for rent or lease are owned by two prominent Kingston families. The amount they charge for these spaces is eye-opening. Right now there are quite a few vacant storefronts on some of the most heavily trafficked streets. It is my understanding that they will make money off those buildings regardless whether or not they get long term tenants, so they have no incentive to court businesses. They expect the businesses to court them.
These are the people who show up all the time at your city council meetings. They know how to work the system.
posted by Kitteh at 4:09 PM on November 1, 2023 [11 favorites]
Why are "business owners" treated in the marketplace differently from "home owners"?
Because they have different market needs, roles and demands? I mean, if I get an apartment for six months I've had six months of housing. If many businesses get a space for six months they've have zero months of business.
I should point out here that the content of this article is about mortgages by property owners and not renters, and my comments is also about mortgages and not renters.
posted by hippybear at 4:17 PM on November 1, 2023
Because they have different market needs, roles and demands? I mean, if I get an apartment for six months I've had six months of housing. If many businesses get a space for six months they've have zero months of business.
I should point out here that the content of this article is about mortgages by property owners and not renters, and my comments is also about mortgages and not renters.
posted by hippybear at 4:17 PM on November 1, 2023
The article is about the interplay between mortgages, banks, property owners, and renters. It makes no sense if you ignore the renting part of it, especially if you talk about "free market" signals and whether they work or not.
I still don't get why you think it is somehow prioritizing commercial over residential real estate, or what from this system you'd like to see applied there.
posted by mark k at 4:24 PM on November 1, 2023
I still don't get why you think it is somehow prioritizing commercial over residential real estate, or what from this system you'd like to see applied there.
posted by mark k at 4:24 PM on November 1, 2023
Strong Towns laid this out in a pretty accessible way six years ago.
posted by rockindata at 4:25 PM on November 1, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by rockindata at 4:25 PM on November 1, 2023 [4 favorites]
or what from this system you'd like to see applied there
I think if you can explain what you mean by this phrase, we might begin a conversation.
posted by hippybear at 4:33 PM on November 1, 2023
I think if you can explain what you mean by this phrase, we might begin a conversation.
posted by hippybear at 4:33 PM on November 1, 2023
It feels like there's something missing from the article's description of banks' decision making. If the bank values my building based solely on the rent I am asking for, rather than the rent I'm actually collecting, why wouldn't the ideal building from the bank's point of view be a completely vacant building with an advertised rate of $999999999999 per square foot? (I assume the answer is related to why I will forever be an engineer and not an entrepreneur or politician)
In that "you could set those numbers in a video game" sense, sure, but the ideal rent, from the bank/landlord's perspective, is the highest rent that a given space in a given building can actually, in the real market, command, with the ability to actually collect that rent being a component of the value of the property. You'll never get anybody to pay $999999999999 per square foot, hence the "ideal" rent is something much lower.
posted by Pope Guilty at 4:39 PM on November 1, 2023 [2 favorites]
In that "you could set those numbers in a video game" sense, sure, but the ideal rent, from the bank/landlord's perspective, is the highest rent that a given space in a given building can actually, in the real market, command, with the ability to actually collect that rent being a component of the value of the property. You'll never get anybody to pay $999999999999 per square foot, hence the "ideal" rent is something much lower.
posted by Pope Guilty at 4:39 PM on November 1, 2023 [2 favorites]
I agree that the solution is taxation, but would add fluid zoning ordinances and national legislation to deter excessive profit-taking by financiers or owners of retail space. For example, as stated above, vacancy taxes should ratchet up over time until a landlord MUST rent for a reasonable rate. If there are any tax breaks for vacancy, there should not be. And zoning boards should track city or countywide vacancy rates and automatically deny new retail construction if it’s above a certain number, not to mention pegging approvals for home construction to a curve that matches the income/wealth of residents. We’re letting the tail wag the dog. My area has at once way too much empty retail space and way too many duplicate businesses. There’s no reason we should be building strip malls that are “dated” after 10 years and replacing them with giant “mixed-use” communities with chain whisky bars and fucking lululemon outlets. Which reminds me, tax rates for occupied retail space should scale upwards with the number of locations. So Bob’s locally owned sandwich shop should pay much less tax than the 5000th Subway, even if that Subway is a franchise.
Back to the finance bit, many of our problems in the US stem from finance being a lucrative cash cow industry that attracts the quants and the Harvard Business grads, instead of it being (as it should) a service industry like plumbing or housecleaning.
posted by caviar2d2 at 4:39 PM on November 1, 2023 [4 favorites]
Back to the finance bit, many of our problems in the US stem from finance being a lucrative cash cow industry that attracts the quants and the Harvard Business grads, instead of it being (as it should) a service industry like plumbing or housecleaning.
posted by caviar2d2 at 4:39 PM on November 1, 2023 [4 favorites]
they look like the buildings in video games you can't interact with. I've been trained to ignore those places, unless zombies start pouring out of them.
This is a good analogy, I think, because visiting places you used to live where local businesses have been replaced by vacant storefronts and forgettable chains is a bit like playing a mediocre, half-fleshed-out video game sequel.
posted by smelendez at 5:07 PM on November 1, 2023
This is a good analogy, I think, because visiting places you used to live where local businesses have been replaced by vacant storefronts and forgettable chains is a bit like playing a mediocre, half-fleshed-out video game sequel.
posted by smelendez at 5:07 PM on November 1, 2023
If that Bill Jones or whomever that spoke at your local city council meeting bought it 27 years ago when your downtown was a blasted out hellhole, maybe it's paid off and he doesn't want to rise and grind just to make a few extra bucks when he could just sell it when he wants to retire.
Too bad, Bill Jones. You benefited from everything that went into making the city more welcoming and you benefit from everything the city does now. You don't exist in a vacuum. Now you're sitting on a huge appreciation, Bill Jones; time to sell if you don't want to do the work.
(It's not "Bill Jones," of course--more like "GS Mortgage Securities Trust 2019-GC40" or Derby Copeland Capital--and the weirdness that happens every time we talk about landlords and people act like they're all, mostly, or even substantially the Widow Pickleby funding her declining years with the property next door is beyond me.)
posted by praemunire at 5:40 PM on November 1, 2023 [14 favorites]
Too bad, Bill Jones. You benefited from everything that went into making the city more welcoming and you benefit from everything the city does now. You don't exist in a vacuum. Now you're sitting on a huge appreciation, Bill Jones; time to sell if you don't want to do the work.
(It's not "Bill Jones," of course--more like "GS Mortgage Securities Trust 2019-GC40" or Derby Copeland Capital--and the weirdness that happens every time we talk about landlords and people act like they're all, mostly, or even substantially the Widow Pickleby funding her declining years with the property next door is beyond me.)
posted by praemunire at 5:40 PM on November 1, 2023 [14 favorites]
That's why these sort of discussions are basically useless on MeFI. It's just a bunch of non-commercial landlords and non-commercial lease holders trying to solve problems that the landlords/lease holders don't even know exist.
Maybe this is rather a reflection of how useless "capitalism" is when applied to real estate markets as they exist in current USA?
I think what Back At It Again At Krispy Kreme is trying to say is that this is one of those threads full of comments by people who don't really know what they're talking about. My own business experience was in a specialty service industry that involved no retail sales, where typical lease practices were a bit different, so these things puzzle me too.
From my own view as someone in a neighborhood with several shuttered storefronts, I'm not so sure short term churn is all that preferable. Some of the smaller landlords have tried it, and seems kind of pitiful, really. A sad string of little businesses occupying the same property over the course of years almost makes a location seem cursed. The sense of impermanence doesn't seem to inspire, any more than an empty property. Though it helps that the vacant properties are not left to become mouldering eyesores around here. Interesting, over the last 20 or so years, these places have trended to sort of "mystery" non retail commercial spaces that are occupied, but not directly contributing to local commerce. Sort of office/studio spaces that are generally occupied during normal business hours by people doing... stuff. Very little or no signage, and often some kind of barriers to protect the occupant's privacy. I suspect these are places that will eventually be sold along with several adjoining properties, or even the whole block, and redeveloped.
Too bad, Bill Jones. You benefited from everything that went into making the city more welcoming and you benefit from everything the city does now. You don't exist in a vacuum. Now you're sitting on a huge appreciation, Bill Jones; time to sell if you don't want to do the work.
You might be giving poor old man Jones a bad rap here. He benefitted, but he also very likely contributed to making the city better during the duration of his ownership. It doesn't change of Jones is actually a holding of some large entity.
posted by 2N2222 at 6:02 PM on November 1, 2023 [3 favorites]
Maybe this is rather a reflection of how useless "capitalism" is when applied to real estate markets as they exist in current USA?
I think what Back At It Again At Krispy Kreme is trying to say is that this is one of those threads full of comments by people who don't really know what they're talking about. My own business experience was in a specialty service industry that involved no retail sales, where typical lease practices were a bit different, so these things puzzle me too.
From my own view as someone in a neighborhood with several shuttered storefronts, I'm not so sure short term churn is all that preferable. Some of the smaller landlords have tried it, and seems kind of pitiful, really. A sad string of little businesses occupying the same property over the course of years almost makes a location seem cursed. The sense of impermanence doesn't seem to inspire, any more than an empty property. Though it helps that the vacant properties are not left to become mouldering eyesores around here. Interesting, over the last 20 or so years, these places have trended to sort of "mystery" non retail commercial spaces that are occupied, but not directly contributing to local commerce. Sort of office/studio spaces that are generally occupied during normal business hours by people doing... stuff. Very little or no signage, and often some kind of barriers to protect the occupant's privacy. I suspect these are places that will eventually be sold along with several adjoining properties, or even the whole block, and redeveloped.
Too bad, Bill Jones. You benefited from everything that went into making the city more welcoming and you benefit from everything the city does now. You don't exist in a vacuum. Now you're sitting on a huge appreciation, Bill Jones; time to sell if you don't want to do the work.
You might be giving poor old man Jones a bad rap here. He benefitted, but he also very likely contributed to making the city better during the duration of his ownership. It doesn't change of Jones is actually a holding of some large entity.
posted by 2N2222 at 6:02 PM on November 1, 2023 [3 favorites]
There is an awesome old coach house building in the town where I live that was converted into retail space about 5 years ago. It's sat empty covered in for rent signs ever since. The top floor is set up as open-plan offices. The main floor is a HUGE big open space with enormous glass doors that open onto the street. It's right next to the main transport hub and lots of other amenities.
I have all sorts of daydreams about what I'd do with that place if I won the lottery (turn it into a community hub to tackle loneliness or a community theater). I mentioned this in passing to a friend once, and discovered she also daydream about how she want's the space to be used (extension of her fav microbrewery).
I've started asking friends and random local acquaintances about it, and it turns out we are not alone. Nearly everyone who walks past this place has an awesome, detailed plan for what they could use the space for. I love hearing all the creative ideas and seeing how wistful people get talking about them.
I find this both fabulous and depressing. We are all so desperate for community spaces and have such wonderful ideas and dreams! It's such a waste.
posted by EllaEm at 7:21 PM on November 1, 2023 [5 favorites]
I have all sorts of daydreams about what I'd do with that place if I won the lottery (turn it into a community hub to tackle loneliness or a community theater). I mentioned this in passing to a friend once, and discovered she also daydream about how she want's the space to be used (extension of her fav microbrewery).
I've started asking friends and random local acquaintances about it, and it turns out we are not alone. Nearly everyone who walks past this place has an awesome, detailed plan for what they could use the space for. I love hearing all the creative ideas and seeing how wistful people get talking about them.
I find this both fabulous and depressing. We are all so desperate for community spaces and have such wonderful ideas and dreams! It's such a waste.
posted by EllaEm at 7:21 PM on November 1, 2023 [5 favorites]
He benefitted, but he also very likely contributed to making the city better during the duration of his ownership.
Possibly, yes, although possibly not; that still doesn't earn him the right to turn his street desolate. One might attribute a moral intent to an individual Bill, but not to a pool of mortgages administered by a hands-off trustee. One of the great problems for those trying to fix fallout from the RMBS crisis was the difficulty of finding anyone in authority to make decisions.
posted by praemunire at 7:50 PM on November 1, 2023 [1 favorite]
Possibly, yes, although possibly not; that still doesn't earn him the right to turn his street desolate. One might attribute a moral intent to an individual Bill, but not to a pool of mortgages administered by a hands-off trustee. One of the great problems for those trying to fix fallout from the RMBS crisis was the difficulty of finding anyone in authority to make decisions.
posted by praemunire at 7:50 PM on November 1, 2023 [1 favorite]
I'd like to see a town purchase the walkable business districts using tax incentive financing, with a long-term plan to... Do something good and earn money for the residents?
posted by rebent at 8:00 PM on November 1, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by rebent at 8:00 PM on November 1, 2023 [3 favorites]
It feels like there's something missing from the article's description of banks' decision making. If the bank values my building based solely on the rent I am asking for, rather than the rent I'm actually collecting, why wouldn't the ideal building from the bank's point of view be a completely vacant building with an advertised rate of $999999999999 per square foot? (I assume the answer is related to why I will forever be an engineer and not an entrepreneur or politician)
So, the Bank can literally print money. But in order to do so, it needs to justify that its assets are worth its obligations.
Its assets include people owing it money. When someone owes it a mortgage, it needs to justify that the mortgage isn't in default - that it is an asset worth its book value. And the safety of a debt matters a lot to what it is worth.
If a commercial property is generating enough income to pay its mortgage payments, that debt is a safe one; if the person managing the property stops paying the bank, the bank can seize the property, sell it for a decent price, and recoup its losses.
But a commercial property that doesn't generate enough income to pay its mortgage means that if the current owner defaults, the bank is going to take a haircut (or a larger one).
Now, the models that describe what a property is worth understand that commercial rents are full of relatively long gaps between tenants. So they use the *previous* rent as part of their input when the place is vacant.
And the bank needs to justify its assets against its obligations based not on cash flow, but including the risk of its assets.
So if you take a commercial property and drop its rent, the model they have could easily end up making the bank have to admit that their assets do not balance their obligations, and they have to pay down obligations - this results in losing current, liquid cash.
By artificially maintaining the fiction that the debts are good, which is easy to do by not fixing your model, you can keep profits artificially high at the risk of a bank default if things go badly. Your personal bonuses are determined by your banks current profits, so you as a worker and executive at a bank have piles of incentive to do this. The higher you are on the chain, the larger the incentive you get, so you order your workers to keep profits artificially high and hide losses.
Banks have in the past done things like lent money to a failed business to allow it to immediately pay off its previous interest payments in order to pretend that the loan isn't in default, and thus keeping up the illusion of profitability for the bank. The rules about asset quality are an attempt to avoid this kind of cheating (throwing away bank money to provide bonuses to people running the bank), but doing it with commercial real estate models is part of the same game.
So yes, the ideal property for a banker is one with an insane rate that you can justify to your pricing model, that they can lend money to, that money can be used to pay back the bank. By faking it as a good asset, this inflates the valuation of the bank, which in turn justifies you and your branch and your boss getting a huge bonus.
And sure, people may know that the pricing model is broken, and those empty commercial properties are being over valued. But which executive exactly makes a bonus if you fix the pricing model and suddenly the bank's assets are worth 75% of what they where worth yesterday? If none, then why would any executive let it happen? You'd fire the accountant and the accountant's boss for daring suggest it; what more, you'd ensure that you never hired an accountant with the power to suggest that, and if you did you'd give that accountant piles of incentive to never do it.
After all, if your bank fails, the taxpayers will just bail you out. You are too big to fail. And if you aren't that big, well, everyone else is doing it; if you don't do it, you won't be able to operate as a lender.
posted by NotAYakk at 8:09 PM on November 1, 2023 [12 favorites]
So, the Bank can literally print money. But in order to do so, it needs to justify that its assets are worth its obligations.
Its assets include people owing it money. When someone owes it a mortgage, it needs to justify that the mortgage isn't in default - that it is an asset worth its book value. And the safety of a debt matters a lot to what it is worth.
If a commercial property is generating enough income to pay its mortgage payments, that debt is a safe one; if the person managing the property stops paying the bank, the bank can seize the property, sell it for a decent price, and recoup its losses.
But a commercial property that doesn't generate enough income to pay its mortgage means that if the current owner defaults, the bank is going to take a haircut (or a larger one).
Now, the models that describe what a property is worth understand that commercial rents are full of relatively long gaps between tenants. So they use the *previous* rent as part of their input when the place is vacant.
And the bank needs to justify its assets against its obligations based not on cash flow, but including the risk of its assets.
So if you take a commercial property and drop its rent, the model they have could easily end up making the bank have to admit that their assets do not balance their obligations, and they have to pay down obligations - this results in losing current, liquid cash.
By artificially maintaining the fiction that the debts are good, which is easy to do by not fixing your model, you can keep profits artificially high at the risk of a bank default if things go badly. Your personal bonuses are determined by your banks current profits, so you as a worker and executive at a bank have piles of incentive to do this. The higher you are on the chain, the larger the incentive you get, so you order your workers to keep profits artificially high and hide losses.
Banks have in the past done things like lent money to a failed business to allow it to immediately pay off its previous interest payments in order to pretend that the loan isn't in default, and thus keeping up the illusion of profitability for the bank. The rules about asset quality are an attempt to avoid this kind of cheating (throwing away bank money to provide bonuses to people running the bank), but doing it with commercial real estate models is part of the same game.
So yes, the ideal property for a banker is one with an insane rate that you can justify to your pricing model, that they can lend money to, that money can be used to pay back the bank. By faking it as a good asset, this inflates the valuation of the bank, which in turn justifies you and your branch and your boss getting a huge bonus.
And sure, people may know that the pricing model is broken, and those empty commercial properties are being over valued. But which executive exactly makes a bonus if you fix the pricing model and suddenly the bank's assets are worth 75% of what they where worth yesterday? If none, then why would any executive let it happen? You'd fire the accountant and the accountant's boss for daring suggest it; what more, you'd ensure that you never hired an accountant with the power to suggest that, and if you did you'd give that accountant piles of incentive to never do it.
After all, if your bank fails, the taxpayers will just bail you out. You are too big to fail. And if you aren't that big, well, everyone else is doing it; if you don't do it, you won't be able to operate as a lender.
posted by NotAYakk at 8:09 PM on November 1, 2023 [12 favorites]
So what I'm getting from all of this is that, at the core, the fault is that the bank isn't valuing the property at what the land plus the development on the land is worth, but is also factoring in, somehow through the magic of rent seeking and capitalism, the potential value of the land if rents were paid on it.
That's a fucking insane way for property to be valued in any actual "real estate" market because the estate being valued isn't real, it's imaginary based on hypothetical income on the property.
My understanding of real estate, and yes all you "commercial real estate" people can poo-poo me on this but the degree to which you poo-poo is the degree to which reality is separated from where your reside...
My understanding is that you buy a property and you pay for that property and if you do a thing with that property that makes it more valuable then you win and yay! And if you do a thing and it fails then so sorry so sad.
But there's some kind of perversion of this happening in here, where the lender and the borrower are muddled. I'm having a hard time entirely teasing it apart, but for me, the average Joe, there is something nefarious going on, and it not only smells corrupt, but it smells of the kind of corrupt they can't even get a toe hold on even if they wanted to.
Between the bank valuing the property at some kind of theoretical rent income vs. the actual value of the building plus the land, and the ability to carry a mortgage forward into the future with no guaranteed income, and probably a half-dozen other beneficial-to-commercial-property-holder policies I'm not mentioning here if not more... is it difficult to see why comments in this thread about how "we just don't understand how it works" might not be received well?
posted by hippybear at 8:23 PM on November 1, 2023 [2 favorites]
That's a fucking insane way for property to be valued in any actual "real estate" market because the estate being valued isn't real, it's imaginary based on hypothetical income on the property.
My understanding of real estate, and yes all you "commercial real estate" people can poo-poo me on this but the degree to which you poo-poo is the degree to which reality is separated from where your reside...
My understanding is that you buy a property and you pay for that property and if you do a thing with that property that makes it more valuable then you win and yay! And if you do a thing and it fails then so sorry so sad.
But there's some kind of perversion of this happening in here, where the lender and the borrower are muddled. I'm having a hard time entirely teasing it apart, but for me, the average Joe, there is something nefarious going on, and it not only smells corrupt, but it smells of the kind of corrupt they can't even get a toe hold on even if they wanted to.
Between the bank valuing the property at some kind of theoretical rent income vs. the actual value of the building plus the land, and the ability to carry a mortgage forward into the future with no guaranteed income, and probably a half-dozen other beneficial-to-commercial-property-holder policies I'm not mentioning here if not more... is it difficult to see why comments in this thread about how "we just don't understand how it works" might not be received well?
posted by hippybear at 8:23 PM on November 1, 2023 [2 favorites]
The ability to generate income from the space needs to be considered as part of the value for commercial (and much residential) real estate, though. People don't build such buildings just to look at or even live in, they build them to generate returns via rent. If commercial real estate lending ignored the rent roll as an aspect of valuation, development would crater and sales seize up: where would lenders think the money to pay them back would come from, if not from the estimated cash flow of rents?
Not every principle of capitalism is inherently insane or evil, though they are all bent that way sooner or later (and certainly in this case). That can make it very frustrating.
posted by praemunire at 9:05 PM on November 1, 2023 [3 favorites]
Not every principle of capitalism is inherently insane or evil, though they are all bent that way sooner or later (and certainly in this case). That can make it very frustrating.
posted by praemunire at 9:05 PM on November 1, 2023 [3 favorites]
I find that many of these economic mysteries can be solved by remembering that wealthy people pay each other for being rich with other people's money and that the regulatory structure is set up to facilitate these payments. No small retail landlord could survive a couple of years' worth of vacancy or hope to land a tenant like Citibank. Big landlords have more resources, sure, but more importantly they have better relationships with governmental and corporate institutions. They can afford to play a more sophisticated game than just trying to rent out units to stave off insolvency. They can play at structuring transactions, booking large nominal losses, gaming various credit markets, lobbying for tax reductions, pressuring regulatory bodies, using their market power, etc... The valuations of these commercial retail buildings act as a reference point for these games. And those big players aim to win!
posted by SnowRottie at 9:44 PM on November 1, 2023 [8 favorites]
posted by SnowRottie at 9:44 PM on November 1, 2023 [8 favorites]
Having lots of churn means your entire corporate life is just a series of instances of bankruptcy litigation. Just because your restaurant dreams only lasted two years doesn't mean your 5+ year lease is going to get any shorter.
NYC has a solution to this. Or I should say, most retail storefront landlords in NYC have a solution to this, as that is who I've dealt with in the past 25 years so that's the only aspect of commercial leasing I can speak to.
There is a clause that exists in commercial leases here that when broached in other places the response I've received is a look of crazy eyes and an uttering of "why would a landlord ever agree to that???" but it seems to work pretty well for both parties in the city.
It's called the Good Guy clause. All it means is that if your business is failing for whatever reason, as long as you give the landlord the agreed upon amount of notice (typically anywhere from 90 to 180 days, though 90 is most common IME), and are not in violation of the lease in any way, you just hand them back the keys and it's even steven, you have legally fulfilled the obligations of the lease, and the landlord is free to find a new tenant.
In the dozen or so businesses I've had here in NYC, I've only had to enact the good guy clause on an operating business once. A few of the older mefites might be familiar with the location that I tried to give back the keys to because we had some Metafilter meetups there (basement bar on the lower east side if you're trying to remember).
The reason for the failure? Not only was the neighborhood in decline, but our lease was renewed at almost three times it's initial rent. We tried to make a go of it at the new rent, but decided that working just to pay the landlord wasn't worth our time. When we sent notice that we were enacting the good guy clause, the landlord jumped through hoops to get us to try and sell the business instead of just handing back the keys. This is what we ended up doing and made a decent little payday from selling instead of just closing, but I guess my point is the good guy clause is a good solution that provides some coverage for both the landlord and the tenant.
As far as length of leases, if there is a good guy clause, no business should want a short lease. If you've done your footwork, you're going into the business optimistic that it will work out. If you're in hospitality, chances are you're also spending six to seven figures just getting the place open, you want to spread that expense out over the longest period of time you can. You also want the stability of not having your rent jacked up significantly when it's time to renew your lease. My standard ask when putting in an offer is 10+5+5, meaning a ten year base lease with the standard yearly escalations, then two five year renewals at a negotiable percentage of the going market rate.
I've found that good landlords will be flexible to keep good tenants. I've had good landlords mostly, and my business partner and I have walked away from partnerships where we felt the landlords were too focused on extracting every bit of money and every advantage they could in the lease. Once we backed out the night before the lease signing on a soon to be very popular block in Williamsburg because the landlords were a bunch of finance bros who had bought the building and acted more like finance bros than landlords in a business partnership with their tenants. A couple of other times when there were issues during the build out phase, either because of problems with the property itself or because a pandemic just hit. We backed out after investing high 5 figures in development of the location because the landlords were intractable and the idea of being in business with them for the next decade or more seemed like more stress than it was worth.
The best landlords I've had here were small, usually only just one or two buildings, and usually a first generation immigrant. Our favorite landlords were from China, Nigeria, and India, and honestly, working with them are what saved our businesses during the pandemic. Because of this history, we will always go with a small landlord rather than one caught in the cogs of the corporate/big bank/finance/real estate machine.
We are lucky enough to be landlords ourselves now, and both my partner and I agree that it's better to have a quality tenant and keep them happy than to get top dollar and try to squeeze every last penny out of a building, so thats what we do. If we had had to finance with the bank, I'm not sure that this would be possible.
I remember more than one mixed use building we looked at in not what you would call thriving parts of Brooklyn that had at least one "tenant" in the commercial space that was theoretically paying well above what the space would actually lease for. It took us a minute to realize that the sellers of the building knew what the banks would require to give us financing to buy, and so they had these fake tenants and leases at the ready. They didn't go through the effort to make it look like the tenant actually occupied the space on a daily basis, just the minimum of a sign out front and maybe a desk or two and a whiteboard or something inside the space, nothing that couldn't have been seen right through from an experienced eye.
Maybe this is how it always works and then you just get the bank to extend when you can't find a tenant at the recorded rate. That's too stressful for me, but then maybe that's why corporate America wasn't for me and I became a bartender instead.
posted by newpotato at 4:07 AM on November 2, 2023 [20 favorites]
it's better to have a quality tenant and keep them happy than to get top dollar and try to squeeze every last penny out of a building, so thats what we do. If we had had to finance with the bank, I'm not sure that this would be possible.
I know a fisherman who thinks boat mortgages are a direct cause of fishery collapse; and Montgomery’s _Dirt_ has very similar arguments about land mortgages and over farming to erosion. (High fixed taxes do the same thing.)
posted by clew at 11:43 AM on November 2, 2023 [1 favorite]
I know a fisherman who thinks boat mortgages are a direct cause of fishery collapse; and Montgomery’s _Dirt_ has very similar arguments about land mortgages and over farming to erosion. (High fixed taxes do the same thing.)
posted by clew at 11:43 AM on November 2, 2023 [1 favorite]
Maybe this is rather a reflection of how useless "capitalism" is when applied to real estate markets as they exist in current USA?
It's not. The only way this scheme mentioned works is if the demand for retail space is high- which it is. The average US major city has 95% of it's leasable retail square footage leased. Which indicates rising rent demand and some demand for new spaces. There is no major US city (ok, maybe some in the rust belt - every major city in the US is not listed in market reports) that has 30% open retail space. Not even close.
Office space on the other hand? Yes. But that's not the same thing.
US retail square footage is growing at 40million sq ft per year. SF (the city) has a listed retail vacancy rate of 4.5%, with about 100k in net absorbtion in the past year. A few cities have negative net absorption for the year. Mall retail sq footage is the most available. Read the US level report yourself if you don't believe me.
Now you may say "but the mixed use place has never been rented" - and that's possibly true. But a mixed use space will have 10k sq ft in total, and a 95k sq ft grocery (or two) opening somewhere else will offset that empty square footage. There may be some localized streets with higher vacancy than the entire city, but that doesn't mean retail is failing. It probably does mean that the mixed use space was oversized for the number of people nearby, or that there is more than enough retail for the population mix nearby. Which means your city planners suck.
Add into this that that the US is actually like 3X per sq ft higher in retail sq footage than the rest of the world - there is room for shrinkage.
posted by The_Vegetables at 12:13 PM on November 2, 2023 [2 favorites]
It's not. The only way this scheme mentioned works is if the demand for retail space is high- which it is. The average US major city has 95% of it's leasable retail square footage leased. Which indicates rising rent demand and some demand for new spaces. There is no major US city (ok, maybe some in the rust belt - every major city in the US is not listed in market reports) that has 30% open retail space. Not even close.
Office space on the other hand? Yes. But that's not the same thing.
US retail square footage is growing at 40million sq ft per year. SF (the city) has a listed retail vacancy rate of 4.5%, with about 100k in net absorbtion in the past year. A few cities have negative net absorption for the year. Mall retail sq footage is the most available. Read the US level report yourself if you don't believe me.
Now you may say "but the mixed use place has never been rented" - and that's possibly true. But a mixed use space will have 10k sq ft in total, and a 95k sq ft grocery (or two) opening somewhere else will offset that empty square footage. There may be some localized streets with higher vacancy than the entire city, but that doesn't mean retail is failing. It probably does mean that the mixed use space was oversized for the number of people nearby, or that there is more than enough retail for the population mix nearby. Which means your city planners suck.
Add into this that that the US is actually like 3X per sq ft higher in retail sq footage than the rest of the world - there is room for shrinkage.
posted by The_Vegetables at 12:13 PM on November 2, 2023 [2 favorites]
BTW: 8-10% of lease-able retail space (95% occupied), homes (99% occupied), apartments (~96% occupied), warehouse (~95% occupied), and office (~75% occupied) is said to be a 'neutral' market.
posted by The_Vegetables at 12:29 PM on November 2, 2023
posted by The_Vegetables at 12:29 PM on November 2, 2023
office (~75% occupied)
This number represents leased - I saw a report today that says office is only 27%-50% occupied by actual people, depending on the day of the week, and those numbers are consistent across SF, DC, NYC, Dallas, Seattle, etc.
work from home is going to kill any downtown that is based around office workers.
posted by The_Vegetables at 2:24 PM on November 2, 2023
This number represents leased - I saw a report today that says office is only 27%-50% occupied by actual people, depending on the day of the week, and those numbers are consistent across SF, DC, NYC, Dallas, Seattle, etc.
work from home is going to kill any downtown that is based around office workers.
posted by The_Vegetables at 2:24 PM on November 2, 2023
Not when the major commercial tenants in a downtown are forcing their workforce back into the office!
posted by ChrisR at 2:49 PM on November 2, 2023
posted by ChrisR at 2:49 PM on November 2, 2023
Not when the major commercial tenants in a downtown are forcing their workforce back into the office!
Although so far businesses in this not-so-theoretical downtown are still going dark (eyes the only decent full line grocery store within walking distance of where I live).
posted by skyscraper at 5:22 PM on November 2, 2023 [1 favorite]
Although so far businesses in this not-so-theoretical downtown are still going dark (eyes the only decent full line grocery store within walking distance of where I live).
posted by skyscraper at 5:22 PM on November 2, 2023 [1 favorite]
So what I'm getting from all of this is that, at the core, the fault is that the bank isn't valuing the property at what the land plus the development on the land is worth, but is also factoring in, somehow through the magic of rent seeking and capitalism, the potential value of the land if rents were paid on it.
I'm interested to hear ideas about how the land should be valued in exclusion of potential future productivity.
For example, I bought a house a few years ago for around $130k. Was it worth 130k? I didn't think so. But I figured, as long as I can sell it again for 130k, then I wasn't really paying 130k for it; I was paying the monthly mortgage price for it. I did end up selling it, and the increase in value was roughly equal to the sum total of all the mortgage payments I made.
Was 130k the value of the house? I don't know. But by agreeing to pretend it was, I was able to "live rent free". On the other hand, if the house cratered and the land was uninhabitable, I would have paid $130k to own a hole in the ground.
I feel like the question of "what is it *actually* worth" hits me all the time while grocery shopping. Name brand vs store brand product, made in the same factory, but one is more costly? And I just moved to Portland, where the food inside Fred Meyers is about 2x what it cost back at Meijers in Michigan. But WinCo's prices are often cheaper than back home. What is the true value of the food, and how come food at monopolists corporations are allegedly more valuable than the same food at an employee-owned store?
It's a mind fuck. Everybody's getting bamboozled into parting with cash despite it being against what I think is their self interest.
posted by rebent at 3:10 PM on November 3, 2023
I'm interested to hear ideas about how the land should be valued in exclusion of potential future productivity.
For example, I bought a house a few years ago for around $130k. Was it worth 130k? I didn't think so. But I figured, as long as I can sell it again for 130k, then I wasn't really paying 130k for it; I was paying the monthly mortgage price for it. I did end up selling it, and the increase in value was roughly equal to the sum total of all the mortgage payments I made.
Was 130k the value of the house? I don't know. But by agreeing to pretend it was, I was able to "live rent free". On the other hand, if the house cratered and the land was uninhabitable, I would have paid $130k to own a hole in the ground.
I feel like the question of "what is it *actually* worth" hits me all the time while grocery shopping. Name brand vs store brand product, made in the same factory, but one is more costly? And I just moved to Portland, where the food inside Fred Meyers is about 2x what it cost back at Meijers in Michigan. But WinCo's prices are often cheaper than back home. What is the true value of the food, and how come food at monopolists corporations are allegedly more valuable than the same food at an employee-owned store?
It's a mind fuck. Everybody's getting bamboozled into parting with cash despite it being against what I think is their self interest.
posted by rebent at 3:10 PM on November 3, 2023
Name brand vs store brand product, made in the same factory, but one is more costly?
A lot more goes into any product than the building it's made in. For example if you own a food service business here a big name food distribution company has on offer a dozen different qualities of ready to bake pizza. Everything from $5 for fake cheese and ground weiner's level to $50 for IDK shrimp and lobster tails. All made in the same factory, by the same people.
posted by Mitheral at 5:47 AM on November 4, 2023
A lot more goes into any product than the building it's made in. For example if you own a food service business here a big name food distribution company has on offer a dozen different qualities of ready to bake pizza. Everything from $5 for fake cheese and ground weiner's level to $50 for IDK shrimp and lobster tails. All made in the same factory, by the same people.
posted by Mitheral at 5:47 AM on November 4, 2023
rebent "Everything is worth what its purchaser will pay for it." Like most of those simple sounding in a nutshell sort of ancient quotations, it's got a lot of exceptions and caveats, but there's a bit of truth there.
If the bank says the rent SHOULD be $100/foot but no one will pay that price, then the bank is wrong. And the entire situation here can only exist because of a bunch of bizarre and frankly gaming the system institutions and economic loopholes.
Which is why I'm still in favor of a vacancy tax that goes up to utterly ludicrous rates and quickly terminates in the government seizing the property and selling it at auction.
If someone wants to price their hamburger at $1000 and no one will buy it that's not a problem for society. No one, except perhaps the seller, is hurt by their preposterously high price.
But when an oligarchy of landowners want to set their rent at some ridiculously high rate that is a problem for society and people are hurt by their incorrect pricing.
If they get hurt because they created a stupid, bad, harmful, situation that's not exactly good but I'm willing to pay the price of a bunch of bankers having to tighten their belts and put off buying that seventeenth vacation home.
posted by sotonohito at 6:05 AM on November 4, 2023 [2 favorites]
If the bank says the rent SHOULD be $100/foot but no one will pay that price, then the bank is wrong. And the entire situation here can only exist because of a bunch of bizarre and frankly gaming the system institutions and economic loopholes.
Which is why I'm still in favor of a vacancy tax that goes up to utterly ludicrous rates and quickly terminates in the government seizing the property and selling it at auction.
If someone wants to price their hamburger at $1000 and no one will buy it that's not a problem for society. No one, except perhaps the seller, is hurt by their preposterously high price.
But when an oligarchy of landowners want to set their rent at some ridiculously high rate that is a problem for society and people are hurt by their incorrect pricing.
If they get hurt because they created a stupid, bad, harmful, situation that's not exactly good but I'm willing to pay the price of a bunch of bankers having to tighten their belts and put off buying that seventeenth vacation home.
posted by sotonohito at 6:05 AM on November 4, 2023 [2 favorites]
A variable vacancy tax would be great if we could do it.I agree that most places would be better off with this! However, there’s a big counterfactual present - many places already have laws like this (DC is probably the most notable). It hasn’t been a magic bullet, and folks have still found various ways to engage in real estate speculation, some of which are harmful - if you tear a building down to build a parking lot, that technically makes it an active businesses.
After six months the tax is 10% of the assessed value of the property. After a year, 20%. After two years, 50%. After 3 years the property is taken and sold at auction to someone who wants to use it instead of hoard it.
You also end up with weird things like tax-exempt nonprofits hoarding their wealth in derelict buildings in gentrifying neighborhoods.
On balance it’s probably a good thing, but frankly, most people here don’t even know it exists. It’s just, sadly, not that impactful.
posted by schmod at 6:20 PM on November 6, 2023 [1 favorite]
What if - hear me out - the land was owned by the people, and had to pay a percent of proceeds as rent, with shops being selected not based on ROI for the owners/investors, but through a committee of neighborhood representatives?
posted by rebent at 10:34 PM on November 10, 2023
posted by rebent at 10:34 PM on November 10, 2023
The only way this scheme mentioned works is if the demand for retail space is high- which it is.
But - belatedly - if demand for retail space is actually high, a system that keeps retail space unused is not working because it’s thwarting that demand.
(I may have lost a referent? We’re talking about several systems here both actual
and proposed.)
posted by clew at 2:14 PM on November 11, 2023
But - belatedly - if demand for retail space is actually high, a system that keeps retail space unused is not working because it’s thwarting that demand.
(I may have lost a referent? We’re talking about several systems here both actual
and proposed.)
posted by clew at 2:14 PM on November 11, 2023
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Even the plebeians of Rome eventually had a Tribune. Local city councils could use road management to make a new missing third place built for life to be.
posted by MonsieurPEB at 12:01 PM on November 1, 2023 [13 favorites]