Wide Awake
February 24, 2024 3:12 PM Subscribe
Donald Trump may be hoping to strike a knockout blow against Nikki Haley in today's South Carolina primary, but he spent the better part of the day up north in Maryland, as the keynote speaker at this year's Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC). The annual right-wing gathering has declined in prestige, attendance, and relevance since its heyday in the Tea Party era, losing big corporate sponsors and seeing chairman Matt Schlapp slapped with a multi-million dollar sexual assault claim. But it still serves as a useful window into the pathology of the modern Trump-MAGA Republican Party: turning against Ukraine and towards Putin two years into the war, welcoming failed world leaders decrying the "deep state" (and current ones that are dictatorial or arguably insane), featuring Pizzagate boosters calling for the overthrow of democracy, and tolerating self-identified Nazis openly mingling with conservative influencers and spreading racist and anti-semitic conspiracy theories. Does anybody really know what time it is?
Best case is he takes them for every cent they’ve got then flames out completely, leaving them and their agenda of brutally unpopular Nazi shit fucked in locals.
If we live in the good or at least slightly less awful universe.
If.
posted by Artw at 3:24 PM on February 24 [30 favorites]
If we live in the good or at least slightly less awful universe.
If.
posted by Artw at 3:24 PM on February 24 [30 favorites]
Alas, but we live in the actual
It Only Gets Worse universe.
posted by y2karl at 3:38 PM on February 24 [27 favorites]
It Only Gets Worse universe.
posted by y2karl at 3:38 PM on February 24 [27 favorites]
The question of the day (based on seeing a number of articles today asking this question) seems to be: in a general election between Trump and Biden, what would the Haley voters do? Sit it out, hold their noses and vote for Trump or Biden, or vote third-party?
The back and forth arguments about Trump's desire to clean out the RNC bank accounts to pay his legal bills are pretty funny though. Everyone involved is a terrible person, and whatever they choose to do will cause problems for the GOP.
posted by Dip Flash at 3:38 PM on February 24 [11 favorites]
The back and forth arguments about Trump's desire to clean out the RNC bank accounts to pay his legal bills are pretty funny though. Everyone involved is a terrible person, and whatever they choose to do will cause problems for the GOP.
posted by Dip Flash at 3:38 PM on February 24 [11 favorites]
OMG that final link about knowing what time it is is ENTIRELY classic right wing "the accusation is a confession" sort of material. What's frightening about it is, they're inventing an urgency in a false mirror response to the ACTUAL emergency being felt by many others.
I don't know how this gets countered except through just the sheer force of the US electorate who aren't paying attention and hold no current opinion and will vote their own non-dictatorship interests... but I don't know what those numbers are and it makes me terrified.
posted by hippybear at 3:39 PM on February 24 [7 favorites]
I don't know how this gets countered except through just the sheer force of the US electorate who aren't paying attention and hold no current opinion and will vote their own non-dictatorship interests... but I don't know what those numbers are and it makes me terrified.
posted by hippybear at 3:39 PM on February 24 [7 favorites]
I've seen a bunch of jokes about the "No Gender" part of the Hungarian delegation's “No migration, no gender, no war” slogan. I get it! It's like they're insisting on ditching the binary. Enjoy your laughs where you can find them, I guess.
But I gotta tell you, as someone with Hungarian in-laws buying into this stuff, I have to tell you it's, uh, not great. These folks are the role models of the GOP folks trying to reshape this country.
It's uh... it's not great. I mean, a new Mussolini with a poorly worded slogan in his second language is still a new Mussolini when he heads back home.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 3:52 PM on February 24 [25 favorites]
But I gotta tell you, as someone with Hungarian in-laws buying into this stuff, I have to tell you it's, uh, not great. These folks are the role models of the GOP folks trying to reshape this country.
It's uh... it's not great. I mean, a new Mussolini with a poorly worded slogan in his second language is still a new Mussolini when he heads back home.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 3:52 PM on February 24 [25 favorites]
There’s like 4 Haley voters, who gives a shit about them? (They are all going to vote for Trump, obviously)
posted by Artw at 3:56 PM on February 24 [2 favorites]
posted by Artw at 3:56 PM on February 24 [2 favorites]
We already know that republicans want to go national with their policy of bullying non-binary kids to death, just like they want to go national with their policy of ending recreational sex. Their platform is composed of the freakiest, least defensible shit ever.
I just hope Democrats actually run against it and don’t try to do some weird triangulation thing against it.
posted by Artw at 3:59 PM on February 24 [30 favorites]
I just hope Democrats actually run against it and don’t try to do some weird triangulation thing against it.
posted by Artw at 3:59 PM on February 24 [30 favorites]
You can criticise a lot about the current UK Prime Minister but one thing you can be sure of is that he always knows what time it is. Half mast two.
posted by biffa at 4:01 PM on February 24 [1 favorite]
posted by biffa at 4:01 PM on February 24 [1 favorite]
Also, I guess, that the media actually covers his shit and doesn’t try to make them seem more reasonable and rational instead out of some twisted sense off both-sidism/just straight up wanting Trump to win the the case of the NYT.
posted by Artw at 4:01 PM on February 24 [5 favorites]
posted by Artw at 4:01 PM on February 24 [5 favorites]
Fewer than 1% of SC precincts reporting, AP projects a Trump victory.
posted by box at 4:05 PM on February 24
posted by box at 4:05 PM on February 24
I know it's conventional wisdom that the news agencies report on things like the Republican primaries as if they were a real contest because they have time to fill and hope to drive up viewership numbers.
But... couldn't they get just as much covering shit that actually matters? Like the CPAC thing. CNN is all in on selling Trump's utterly inevitable, predictable, and uninteresting win like it matters but they're not giving much coverage at all to CPAC calling for the overthrow of democracy.
I know I'm hardly the average viewer, but I'd be more interested in Republicans applauding the overthrow of American democracy than a primary election that was a foregone conclusion.
posted by sotonohito at 4:08 PM on February 24 [29 favorites]
But... couldn't they get just as much covering shit that actually matters? Like the CPAC thing. CNN is all in on selling Trump's utterly inevitable, predictable, and uninteresting win like it matters but they're not giving much coverage at all to CPAC calling for the overthrow of democracy.
I know I'm hardly the average viewer, but I'd be more interested in Republicans applauding the overthrow of American democracy than a primary election that was a foregone conclusion.
posted by sotonohito at 4:08 PM on February 24 [29 favorites]
I say there, monstrosity! Do you know the times?
just like they want to go national with their policy of ending recreational sex
To be accurate, they only want to end consensual recreational sex. I'll give you a moment to let the horror sink in.
posted by Faint of Butt at 4:14 PM on February 24 [33 favorites]
just like they want to go national with their policy of ending recreational sex
To be accurate, they only want to end consensual recreational sex. I'll give you a moment to let the horror sink in.
posted by Faint of Butt at 4:14 PM on February 24 [33 favorites]
There’s like 4 Haley voters, who gives a shit about them? (They are all going to vote for Trump, obviously)
Huh? She has been getting around a third or more of primary voters. That's a big chunk of the Republican electorate choosing to vote for a long-shot (or zero-shot) candidate rather than Trump. I am sure most will indeed switch to Trump in the general, but it won't be all of them.
I'm feeling frustrated with the breathless reporting about Trump's "strength" and "inevitability" in the primary, since the story is at least as much that he remains vulnerable and hasn't shown signs of regaining voters he previously lost. He'll win the primary for sure, but I'm seeing weakness as well.
posted by Dip Flash at 4:25 PM on February 24 [28 favorites]
Huh? She has been getting around a third or more of primary voters. That's a big chunk of the Republican electorate choosing to vote for a long-shot (or zero-shot) candidate rather than Trump. I am sure most will indeed switch to Trump in the general, but it won't be all of them.
I'm feeling frustrated with the breathless reporting about Trump's "strength" and "inevitability" in the primary, since the story is at least as much that he remains vulnerable and hasn't shown signs of regaining voters he previously lost. He'll win the primary for sure, but I'm seeing weakness as well.
posted by Dip Flash at 4:25 PM on February 24 [28 favorites]
I've seen reporting on CPAC that appears to emphasize its decline as a bellwether of republican politics after the Schlapp sexual harassment allegations. Most of the presidential candidates aren't there, Fox isn't there, seats are empty, Daily Wire sent their second string guy. The Nazis and groypers that try to get in every year actually made it in and are dropping N-bombs
posted by Selena777 at 4:27 PM on February 24 [4 favorites]
posted by Selena777 at 4:27 PM on February 24 [4 favorites]
Trump is growing increasingly erratic during his speeches, too. And that's beginning to be covered similar to Biden's theoretical but as-yet-actually-substantiated mental stumbles. But Trump's bumbling is actually pretty alarming.
posted by hippybear at 4:28 PM on February 24 [13 favorites]
posted by hippybear at 4:28 PM on February 24 [13 favorites]
He is making hay preaching to the choir and digging himself his own grave running his mouth at people sick of hearing from and about him. Not to mention providing free footage for Lincoln Project ads. Who needs AI when he's melting down before our eyes?
posted by y2karl at 4:35 PM on February 24 [3 favorites]
posted by y2karl at 4:35 PM on February 24 [3 favorites]
Trump is growing increasingly erratic during his speeches, too.
As long as Trump remains loud and Biden's voice keeps getting softer, the voters who mistake volume for intelligence won't be able to tell.
posted by clawsoon at 4:36 PM on February 24 [41 favorites]
As long as Trump remains loud and Biden's voice keeps getting softer, the voters who mistake volume for intelligence won't be able to tell.
posted by clawsoon at 4:36 PM on February 24 [41 favorites]
I don't know, he mixed his wife's name up with a car.
posted by Selena777 at 4:45 PM on February 24 [3 favorites]
posted by Selena777 at 4:45 PM on February 24 [3 favorites]
‘My ultimate and absolute revenge’: Trump gives chilling CPAC speech on presidential agenda
Unbound and unhinged, ex-president vilifies immigrants before devolving into bizarre riffs, including calling himself ‘total genius’
posted by lalochezia at 4:54 PM on February 24 [7 favorites]
Unbound and unhinged, ex-president vilifies immigrants before devolving into bizarre riffs, including calling himself ‘total genius’
posted by lalochezia at 4:54 PM on February 24 [7 favorites]
Trump’s Charlie Kirk problem is an obstacle for him and the GOP
posted by Artw at 5:00 PM on February 24 [4 favorites]
posted by Artw at 5:00 PM on February 24 [4 favorites]
before devolving into bizarre riffs, including calling himself ‘total genius’
Anyone who, in 2024, thinks that Trump calling himself a “total genius” is a bizarre riff has absolutely no business participating in TFG’s journalistic coverage.
posted by not just everyday big moggies at 5:12 PM on February 24 [26 favorites]
Anyone who, in 2024, thinks that Trump calling himself a “total genius” is a bizarre riff has absolutely no business participating in TFG’s journalistic coverage.
posted by not just everyday big moggies at 5:12 PM on February 24 [26 favorites]
"I have small use for the public servant who can always see and denounce the corruption of the capitalist, but who cannot persuade himself, especially before election, to say a word about lawless mob-violence. And I have equally small use for the man, be he a judge on the bench or editor of a great paper, or wealthy and influential private citizen, who can see clearly enough and denounce the lawlessness of mob-violence, but whose eyes are closed so that he is blind when the question is one of corruption of business on a gigantic scale. Also, remember what I said about excess in reformer and reactionary alike. If the reactionary man, who thinks of nothing but the rights of property, could have his way, he would bring about a revolution; and one of my chief fears in connection with progress comes because I do not want to see our people, for lack of proper leadership, compelled to follow men whose intentions are excellent, but whose eyes are a little too wild to make it really safe to trust them.'
-Theodore Roosevelt, The New Nationalism. 1910.
posted by clavdivs at 5:16 PM on February 24 [10 favorites]
-Theodore Roosevelt, The New Nationalism. 1910.
posted by clavdivs at 5:16 PM on February 24 [10 favorites]
just like they want to go national with their policy of ending recreational sex
And extra horror, some Republicans advocate for lowering the already problematic child marriage laws
posted by Jacen at 5:16 PM on February 24 [12 favorites]
And extra horror, some Republicans advocate for lowering the already problematic child marriage laws
posted by Jacen at 5:16 PM on February 24 [12 favorites]
Just because you're used to it doesn't mean it's not bizarre.
posted by clawsoon at 5:16 PM on February 24 [6 favorites]
posted by clawsoon at 5:16 PM on February 24 [6 favorites]
Bizarre for humanity as a whole, sure. But is there anyone who hasn’t been in a coma for the past eight years who feels that any of the statements he’s making are “strikingly out of the ordinary” for Trump? Because that’s who we’re talking about.
posted by not just everyday big moggies at 5:23 PM on February 24 [9 favorites]
posted by not just everyday big moggies at 5:23 PM on February 24 [9 favorites]
Also present at CPAC: J6 insurrection Pinball Game.
posted by CrunchyFrog at 5:25 PM on February 24 [3 favorites]
posted by CrunchyFrog at 5:25 PM on February 24 [3 favorites]
I'm glad NBC is covering the Nazi angle. I suspect there are fewer reporters there since they're banning "known liberal" media.
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 5:38 PM on February 24 [11 favorites]
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 5:38 PM on February 24 [11 favorites]
’Easy Knockout’ (Politico).
Or, to put it another way, ‘Former President Barely Cracks 60% in Two-Person Primary.’
posted by box at 6:01 PM on February 24 [20 favorites]
Or, to put it another way, ‘Former President Barely Cracks 60% in Two-Person Primary.’
posted by box at 6:01 PM on February 24 [20 favorites]
The back and forth arguments about Trump's desire to clean out the RNC bank accounts to pay his legal bills are pretty funny though.
Summarily replenished by foreign banks via CU. They'll make do.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 6:02 PM on February 24 [2 favorites]
Summarily replenished by foreign banks via CU. They'll make do.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 6:02 PM on February 24 [2 favorites]
So what's Haley's game here? Why is she dragging out a race even she must know there's no hope of winning?
posted by star gentle uterus at 6:09 PM on February 24
posted by star gentle uterus at 6:09 PM on February 24
>So what's Haley's game here?
Wel... if Trump continues to visibly disintegrate and goes into Long-Term Care; or is convicted and goes to prison; or is determined to be ineligible to run - all of which are possible - then Haley will be the GOP candidate with the best claim on the nomination.
posted by AsYouKnow Bob at 6:19 PM on February 24 [42 favorites]
Wel... if Trump continues to visibly disintegrate and goes into Long-Term Care; or is convicted and goes to prison; or is determined to be ineligible to run - all of which are possible - then Haley will be the GOP candidate with the best claim on the nomination.
posted by AsYouKnow Bob at 6:19 PM on February 24 [42 favorites]
Haley obviously has funding to continue through Super Tuesday. She's announced that she's going to continue until the last primary votes are cast but that can get quite expensive. But I do think she's planning on being the last one standing after all the attrition possible has taken place. If she even gets a few votes for the convention, it will be more than anyone else has gotten, so possibly even if she drops out she could end up the nominee through some kind of party rules thing.
posted by hippybear at 6:24 PM on February 24 [7 favorites]
posted by hippybear at 6:24 PM on February 24 [7 favorites]
That's sheer delusion. If Trump is alive and the RNC tries to rules-lawyer someone else into the nomination there will be riots. People will die. Trump's support among the base isn't some illusion, and 2016 should have made it inescapably clear that the party bosses do not have the reins of the party.
posted by star gentle uterus at 6:34 PM on February 24 [11 favorites]
posted by star gentle uterus at 6:34 PM on February 24 [11 favorites]
Or, to put it another way, ‘Former President Barely Cracks 60% in Two-Person Primary.’
This is what seems so obviously the main story to me, but I must be missing something because the articles are all about how Trump is "dominating" the race. He's guaranteed to win the primary but he seems to be consistently winning about 60%-ish of the vote. If he was really dominating, I'd think he's be moving that bar up and up and up.
posted by Dip Flash at 6:40 PM on February 24 [23 favorites]
This is what seems so obviously the main story to me, but I must be missing something because the articles are all about how Trump is "dominating" the race. He's guaranteed to win the primary but he seems to be consistently winning about 60%-ish of the vote. If he was really dominating, I'd think he's be moving that bar up and up and up.
posted by Dip Flash at 6:40 PM on February 24 [23 favorites]
Haley at the convention with (SOME NUMBER) of delegates is more power than anyone else has shown since 2016. As stated above, that leverage, any leverage, is better than none.
Especially considering the CASH problem facing the R team. Donations are way way way way way down and you have a lot of noise being generated about spending EVERY LAST DOLLAR on TFG's legal bills. Some part of all of this is unsustainable and I think it smells like orange tanner.
posted by djseafood at 6:45 PM on February 24 [13 favorites]
Especially considering the CASH problem facing the R team. Donations are way way way way way down and you have a lot of noise being generated about spending EVERY LAST DOLLAR on TFG's legal bills. Some part of all of this is unsustainable and I think it smells like orange tanner.
posted by djseafood at 6:45 PM on February 24 [13 favorites]
I just hope Democrats actually run against it and don’t try to do some weird triangulation thing against it.
Could happen.
posted by ZenMasterThis at 6:49 PM on February 24 [1 favorite]
Could happen.
posted by ZenMasterThis at 6:49 PM on February 24 [1 favorite]
so what do you do with the unstable clown.
let's go rodeo. you can't go right after him because he's on a horse, a diesel buggy. going straight after him is difficult the clown is seen as the protector of the bull(market) rider. it's got some juice with the crowd. both sides of the money coin can sit on the rail as they see their interest will be protected either way.
so you slowly surround him and you don't tell a soul even if you're in a soulless business.
I still see money on the fence.
imagine Milton Berle in Mr Smith goes to Washington directed by Werner Herzog doesn't begin to explain the length, depth and width of the corral that is high American politics.
posted by clavdivs at 6:53 PM on February 24 [11 favorites]
let's go rodeo. you can't go right after him because he's on a horse, a diesel buggy. going straight after him is difficult the clown is seen as the protector of the bull(market) rider. it's got some juice with the crowd. both sides of the money coin can sit on the rail as they see their interest will be protected either way.
so you slowly surround him and you don't tell a soul even if you're in a soulless business.
I still see money on the fence.
imagine Milton Berle in Mr Smith goes to Washington directed by Werner Herzog doesn't begin to explain the length, depth and width of the corral that is high American politics.
posted by clavdivs at 6:53 PM on February 24 [11 favorites]
He's guaranteed to win the primary but he seems to be consistently winning about 60%-ish of the vote. If he was really dominating, I'd think he's be moving that bar up and up and up.
This just seems like the remnants of the "Never Trump" factions that are still floating around but will inevitably fall in line just as they did in 2016. Trump never had anywhere near 100% of the base in his thrall even at his most popular, he just has that fanatical minority plus the greater mass of Republicans who will always obey no matter what they might say.
posted by star gentle uterus at 7:13 PM on February 24 [5 favorites]
This just seems like the remnants of the "Never Trump" factions that are still floating around but will inevitably fall in line just as they did in 2016. Trump never had anywhere near 100% of the base in his thrall even at his most popular, he just has that fanatical minority plus the greater mass of Republicans who will always obey no matter what they might say.
posted by star gentle uterus at 7:13 PM on February 24 [5 favorites]
Mostly I’m sorry for Flava Flav who needs his catchphrase back, and the KLF who *really* know what time love is
posted by Fiasco da Gama at 7:55 PM on February 24 [18 favorites]
posted by Fiasco da Gama at 7:55 PM on February 24 [18 favorites]
And I heard someone on a podcast say earlier today, if Haley is being paid to go around and shittalk Trump... well, we should support her shittalking.
posted by hippybear at 7:57 PM on February 24 [3 favorites]
posted by hippybear at 7:57 PM on February 24 [3 favorites]
Who *is* paying for this?
posted by Selena777 at 8:05 PM on February 24 [2 favorites]
posted by Selena777 at 8:05 PM on February 24 [2 favorites]
Koch funds were announced a while back.
posted by hippybear at 8:09 PM on February 24 [1 favorite]
posted by hippybear at 8:09 PM on February 24 [1 favorite]
Current numbers are reporting 60/40. We've established that it clearly won't be a republican MAN who would be able to troll TFG effectively, so yes, troll on.
But that's the limit of my support
posted by djseafood at 8:22 PM on February 24 [2 favorites]
But that's the limit of my support
posted by djseafood at 8:22 PM on February 24 [2 favorites]
The one option that a lot of the media is leaving out of this narrative is that 4 out of 10 Republican voters may just not vote in the general. They'll vote in all of the other elections but leave President blank.
posted by djseafood at 8:25 PM on February 24 [1 favorite]
posted by djseafood at 8:25 PM on February 24 [1 favorite]
Donald Trump, 425,288 votes, Nikki Haley, 277,313, at the Washington Post; in the "other" category (some SC Republican voters elude the 24/7 news cycle?): Chris Christie (dropped out on Jan. 10), received 606 votes; Vivek Ramaswamy (dropped out on Jan. 15) received 654 votes, and Ron DeSantis (dropped out on Jan. 22) received 2,682 votes.
posted by Iris Gambol at 8:42 PM on February 24 [2 favorites]
posted by Iris Gambol at 8:42 PM on February 24 [2 favorites]
That's sheer delusion. If Trump is alive and the RNC tries to rules-lawyer someone else into the nomination there will be riotsHonestly, that first part might be the entirety of Haley's continued candidacy. She's positioning herself to be the backup in case the obviously-unwell 77-year-old dies. That's it. That's the whole gambit.
Setting aside TFG's legal woes, the odds of that probably aren't particularly high. But they're certainly not negligible. Let's go with the Social Security actuarial tables, and say that it's 5% (or half that; whatever).
But... a 5% chance is a lot closer than virtually anybody will ever come to a presidential nomination. If you've got people willing to fund your campaign, and nothing to lose by running... why the hell not?. If anything, it's more inexplicable that everybody else dropped out of the race!
To be clear, Haley holds views that I personally find to be abhorrent – you absolutely should not vote for Nikki Haley. My theory also doesn't fully explain why she's positioning herself in such contrast to Trump. But I get why she's staying in the race, especially after the remaining non-Trump candidates dropped out. If somebody offered to pay you to take a 1-in-20 shot at the presidency, wouldn't you?
posted by schmod at 8:45 PM on February 24 [23 favorites]
The one option that a lot of the media is leaving out of this narrative is that 4 out of 10 Republican voters may just not vote in the general.
Where are you getting this from?
posted by star gentle uterus at 8:45 PM on February 24 [5 favorites]
Where are you getting this from?
posted by star gentle uterus at 8:45 PM on February 24 [5 favorites]
I've heard that multiple polls show Haley beating Biden in the election. Ezra Klein even said this on a recent podcast.
Are these people crazy?! People honestly think that if Democrats couldn't elect a woman that Republicans will go to the voting booth and vote for a woman? An Indian woman?! No way in hell will the first female President of the USA be a Republican.
posted by dobbs at 8:47 PM on February 24 [2 favorites]
Are these people crazy?! People honestly think that if Democrats couldn't elect a woman that Republicans will go to the voting booth and vote for a woman? An Indian woman?! No way in hell will the first female President of the USA be a Republican.
posted by dobbs at 8:47 PM on February 24 [2 favorites]
So what's Haley's game here? Why is she dragging out a race even she must know there's no hope of winning?
Somebody has to be ready in case Trump drops dead or is unable to campaign because he's in prison. That must be the reasoning.
posted by jonp72 at 8:56 PM on February 24 [7 favorites]
Somebody has to be ready in case Trump drops dead or is unable to campaign because he's in prison. That must be the reasoning.
posted by jonp72 at 8:56 PM on February 24 [7 favorites]
I think that she's assuming Trump will go down in the general and then she'll be able to swing into the 2028 primary with two pitches:
1) she said he'd lose, and he did
2) unlike the rest of the 2024 primary challengers (who will also probably be there in 2024), she showed that she was not a "quitter"
No party has managed to pull a third term in the White House in nearly forty years, there's going to be rabid competition for the Republican nomination in 2028 and any edge she can muster will be worth it.
posted by AdamCSnider at 9:20 PM on February 24 [22 favorites]
1) she said he'd lose, and he did
2) unlike the rest of the 2024 primary challengers (who will also probably be there in 2024), she showed that she was not a "quitter"
No party has managed to pull a third term in the White House in nearly forty years, there's going to be rabid competition for the Republican nomination in 2028 and any edge she can muster will be worth it.
posted by AdamCSnider at 9:20 PM on February 24 [22 favorites]
just like they want to go national with their policy of ending recreational sex.
Have you heard of this guy named Matt Gaetz?
posted by Big Al 8000 at 9:41 PM on February 24 [2 favorites]
Have you heard of this guy named Matt Gaetz?
posted by Big Al 8000 at 9:41 PM on February 24 [2 favorites]
No way in hell will the first female President of the USA be a Republican
No way in hell will the first Russian agent in the USA to be elected President be a Republican
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 9:44 PM on February 24 [10 favorites]
No way in hell will the first Russian agent in the USA to be elected President be a Republican
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 9:44 PM on February 24 [10 favorites]
Haley at the convention with (SOME NUMBER) of delegates is more power than anyone else has shown since 2016. As stated above, that leverage, any leverage, is better than none.
I’m operating off memory here, so feel free to check and correct me but I believe the GOP awards delegates on a winner-take-all basis, as opposed to the proportional system used by the Democrats.
In 2016, Trump never won a majority of primary/caucus votes but because he always came in first, he sewed up the nomination far more quickly than Clinton, because the rest of the Democratic field had delegates, too.
Here in Iowa, there was a couple weeks of radio silence by the local GOP after Trump was the clear nominee while they tried to decide what to do. In the end, they made a deal with the devil, lined behind the nominee and were rewarded handsomely for their marriage of convenience or cowardace or capitulation or unmasking or whatever you want to call it.
posted by Big Al 8000 at 9:53 PM on February 24 [3 favorites]
I’m operating off memory here, so feel free to check and correct me but I believe the GOP awards delegates on a winner-take-all basis, as opposed to the proportional system used by the Democrats.
In 2016, Trump never won a majority of primary/caucus votes but because he always came in first, he sewed up the nomination far more quickly than Clinton, because the rest of the Democratic field had delegates, too.
Here in Iowa, there was a couple weeks of radio silence by the local GOP after Trump was the clear nominee while they tried to decide what to do. In the end, they made a deal with the devil, lined behind the nominee and were rewarded handsomely for their marriage of convenience or cowardace or capitulation or unmasking or whatever you want to call it.
posted by Big Al 8000 at 9:53 PM on February 24 [3 favorites]
Mostly I’m sorry for Flava Flav who needs his catchphrase back
I can't do nothin' for ya man
I'm busy tryin' to do for me?
posted by ActingTheGoat at 12:05 AM on February 25 [1 favorite]
I can't do nothin' for ya man
I'm busy tryin' to do for me?
posted by ActingTheGoat at 12:05 AM on February 25 [1 favorite]
Have you heard of this guy named Matt Gaetz?
Well, as I’m sure you’ve heard…
Conservatism consists of exactly one proposition, to wit: There must be in-groups whom the law protects but does not bind, alongside out-groups whom the law binds but does not protect.
posted by Artw at 12:17 AM on February 25 [17 favorites]
Well, as I’m sure you’ve heard…
Conservatism consists of exactly one proposition, to wit: There must be in-groups whom the law protects but does not bind, alongside out-groups whom the law binds but does not protect.
posted by Artw at 12:17 AM on February 25 [17 favorites]
I've heard that multiple polls show Haley beating Biden in the election. Ezra Klein even said this on a recent podcast.
Are these people crazy?! People honestly think that if Democrats couldn't elect a woman that Republicans will go to the voting booth and vote for a woman?
Whole buncha white suburbanites (men and women) who went for Biden in 2020 because 4 years of Trump disgusted them will jump on whichever Republican promises to lower their taxes, promises to "keep their kids safe" (a concept that means whatever the listener wants it to mean) and isn't batshit.
No way in hell will the first female President of the USA be a Republican.
I'm calling it now - if Trump loses in 2024 then 2028 is the year Liz Cheney gets elected. Especially if a second Biden administration makes abortion legal federally. Then all those white suburbanites can go back to voting for low taxes secure in the knowledge that they or their daughters could get an abortion if they really needed one.
posted by soundguy99 at 1:13 AM on February 25 [10 favorites]
Are these people crazy?! People honestly think that if Democrats couldn't elect a woman that Republicans will go to the voting booth and vote for a woman?
Whole buncha white suburbanites (men and women) who went for Biden in 2020 because 4 years of Trump disgusted them will jump on whichever Republican promises to lower their taxes, promises to "keep their kids safe" (a concept that means whatever the listener wants it to mean) and isn't batshit.
No way in hell will the first female President of the USA be a Republican.
I'm calling it now - if Trump loses in 2024 then 2028 is the year Liz Cheney gets elected. Especially if a second Biden administration makes abortion legal federally. Then all those white suburbanites can go back to voting for low taxes secure in the knowledge that they or their daughters could get an abortion if they really needed one.
posted by soundguy99 at 1:13 AM on February 25 [10 favorites]
> Are these people crazy?! People honestly think that if Democrats couldn't elect a woman that Republicans will go to the voting booth and vote for a woman?
Yes, in a heart beat. Hillary Clinton lost because conservatives wouldn't vote for her, and they had an alternative. They'll vote against Biden all day long.
posted by constraint at 1:29 AM on February 25 [4 favorites]
Yes, in a heart beat. Hillary Clinton lost because conservatives wouldn't vote for her, and they had an alternative. They'll vote against Biden all day long.
posted by constraint at 1:29 AM on February 25 [4 favorites]
I watched some of the CNN coverage of the South Carolina primary yesterday where voters were being interviewed. I was staggered to hear not just one, but numerous, Trump voters saying (and I paraphrase) that one of the reasons they support him is that they have strong Christian values and Trump is living those values as he, too, is a man of faith whose every action embodies Christian principles.
WHAT THE ACTUAL FUCK??!! (I did, in fact, yell this at the TV at one point.)
One man, asked if a Trump criminal conviction would change his mind, said it would give him pause, but all the others said no, it wouldn't change a thing.
I know I'm probably preaching to the choir here, but FFS, get out and vote. If it's a choice between an old man who might be a little forgetful but who is essentially on the side of what is right and between another old man who is stark raving fucking crazy, it's really no choice at all.
posted by essexjan at 1:30 AM on February 25 [24 favorites]
WHAT THE ACTUAL FUCK??!! (I did, in fact, yell this at the TV at one point.)
One man, asked if a Trump criminal conviction would change his mind, said it would give him pause, but all the others said no, it wouldn't change a thing.
I know I'm probably preaching to the choir here, but FFS, get out and vote. If it's a choice between an old man who might be a little forgetful but who is essentially on the side of what is right and between another old man who is stark raving fucking crazy, it's really no choice at all.
posted by essexjan at 1:30 AM on February 25 [24 favorites]
No way in hell will the first female President of the USA be a Republican.
The only three female Prime Ministers of the UK have all been Tories-- and currently, the first man of colour. Meanwhile, Labour have had a neverending parade of white guys.
Haley, a woman of colour, is perfectly happy to endorse Republican misogyny and reassure white racists that of course they aren't racist. That's all that is required.
posted by Pallas Athena at 5:05 AM on February 25 [36 favorites]
The only three female Prime Ministers of the UK have all been Tories-- and currently, the first man of colour. Meanwhile, Labour have had a neverending parade of white guys.
Haley, a woman of colour, is perfectly happy to endorse Republican misogyny and reassure white racists that of course they aren't racist. That's all that is required.
posted by Pallas Athena at 5:05 AM on February 25 [36 favorites]
If it's a choice between an old man who might be a little forgetful but who is essentially on the side of what is right and between another old man who is stark raving fucking crazy, it's really no choice at all.
Or to put it another way, it's a choice between "a well-meaning old man . . . with a memory problem" or an ILL-meaning old man with a memory problem.
Or as Stephen Colbert put it "The media wants to present this as a horse race. But it's a race between an old horse and an old horse with hoof-in-mouth disease who likes to quote Horse Hitler."
posted by dannyboybell at 5:16 AM on February 25 [28 favorites]
Or to put it another way, it's a choice between "a well-meaning old man . . . with a memory problem" or an ILL-meaning old man with a memory problem.
Or as Stephen Colbert put it "The media wants to present this as a horse race. But it's a race between an old horse and an old horse with hoof-in-mouth disease who likes to quote Horse Hitler."
posted by dannyboybell at 5:16 AM on February 25 [28 favorites]
essexjan: ...Trump is living those values as he, too, is a man of faith whose every action embodies Christian principles. WHAT THE ACTUAL FUCK??!! (I did, in fact, yell this at the TV at one point.)
Two reasons:
The media/social bubble. You have no idea how many preachers every week are saying what a Godly man Trump is and how nice and respectable his children are. (And, conversely, what a Satan-inspired criminal Biden and his whole family are.) If you ask how they could believe this obvious bullshit in the face of all the evidence to the contrary, remember that 40% of Americans have allowed their preachers to convince them that humans were created within the last 10,000 years despite all the evidence to the contrary. After getting Jerry Falwell Jr. onboard by threatening to expose his wife's sexual adventures, Trump got himself tapped into one of the world's most effective propaganda networks speaking to one of the world's most gullible audiences.
Christian misogyny. A lot of Christians, especially White Evangelical Christians, think that the important parts of Christianity are the sex parts. No, not the parts where a man has committed adultery multiple times - that can be forgiven - but the part where women are supposed to conform to rigid gender roles, where men are supposed to dish out violence in the form of corporal punishment, "protecting the family", and "protecting America", and where anybody who doesn't fit into these gender roles (trans people especially) are an abomination. Trump gives off the vibe of "aggressive men, submissive women", and that's what a lot of Christians are looking for nowadays. There are multiple theories about why this is; it has probably been explored most fully in Jesus and John Wayne: How White Evangelicals Corrupted a Faith and Fractured a Nation (previously).
Okay, a third reason: Trump filtering out Christians. I hang out on r/exchristian sometimes, and there are a large number of ex-Chrisians who became ex- over the past few years as they saw what a horrid person Trump is and how strongly their churches supported him. By this point, White Evangelical Christianity has largely filtered out anybody who's able to see Trump for who he is.
posted by clawsoon at 5:24 AM on February 25 [35 favorites]
Two reasons:
The media/social bubble. You have no idea how many preachers every week are saying what a Godly man Trump is and how nice and respectable his children are. (And, conversely, what a Satan-inspired criminal Biden and his whole family are.) If you ask how they could believe this obvious bullshit in the face of all the evidence to the contrary, remember that 40% of Americans have allowed their preachers to convince them that humans were created within the last 10,000 years despite all the evidence to the contrary. After getting Jerry Falwell Jr. onboard by threatening to expose his wife's sexual adventures, Trump got himself tapped into one of the world's most effective propaganda networks speaking to one of the world's most gullible audiences.
Christian misogyny. A lot of Christians, especially White Evangelical Christians, think that the important parts of Christianity are the sex parts. No, not the parts where a man has committed adultery multiple times - that can be forgiven - but the part where women are supposed to conform to rigid gender roles, where men are supposed to dish out violence in the form of corporal punishment, "protecting the family", and "protecting America", and where anybody who doesn't fit into these gender roles (trans people especially) are an abomination. Trump gives off the vibe of "aggressive men, submissive women", and that's what a lot of Christians are looking for nowadays. There are multiple theories about why this is; it has probably been explored most fully in Jesus and John Wayne: How White Evangelicals Corrupted a Faith and Fractured a Nation (previously).
Okay, a third reason: Trump filtering out Christians. I hang out on r/exchristian sometimes, and there are a large number of ex-Chrisians who became ex- over the past few years as they saw what a horrid person Trump is and how strongly their churches supported him. By this point, White Evangelical Christianity has largely filtered out anybody who's able to see Trump for who he is.
posted by clawsoon at 5:24 AM on February 25 [35 favorites]
Or to put it another way, it's a choice between "a well-meaning old man . . . with a memory problem" or an ILL-meaning old man with a memory problem.
There's no reason to pull punches. "a well-meaning old man ... with a memory problem" or a RAPIST. Because Donald Trump is a RAPIST. I have no idea why this isn't a showstopper for 99.99999% of registered voters -- or shouted from every rooftop -- but the fact that it isn't depresses me terribly.
posted by mikelieman at 5:48 AM on February 25 [23 favorites]
There's no reason to pull punches. "a well-meaning old man ... with a memory problem" or a RAPIST. Because Donald Trump is a RAPIST. I have no idea why this isn't a showstopper for 99.99999% of registered voters -- or shouted from every rooftop -- but the fact that it isn't depresses me terribly.
posted by mikelieman at 5:48 AM on February 25 [23 favorites]
I have no idea why this isn't a showstopper for 99.99999% of registered voters -- or shouted from every rooftop
Well, it is only one of his crimes...
There is also treason, perjury, a ton of financial crimes, threats of violence, attempting to steal an election, probably child abuse at the Epstein Island, blackmail, probably espionage, absolutely illegal substance abuse.
It's not that the trumpists aren't aware of all of this, including the rape, it's that they imagine "everyone does it". Remember, "they let you do it when you are a star". I think that is why projection plays such a huge part in the trumpian discourse.
posted by mumimor at 6:12 AM on February 25 [8 favorites]
Well, it is only one of his crimes...
There is also treason, perjury, a ton of financial crimes, threats of violence, attempting to steal an election, probably child abuse at the Epstein Island, blackmail, probably espionage, absolutely illegal substance abuse.
It's not that the trumpists aren't aware of all of this, including the rape, it's that they imagine "everyone does it". Remember, "they let you do it when you are a star". I think that is why projection plays such a huge part in the trumpian discourse.
posted by mumimor at 6:12 AM on February 25 [8 favorites]
No way in hell will the first female President of the USA be a Republican.
The only three female Prime Ministers of the UK have all been Tories-- and currently, the first man of colour. Meanwhile, Labour have had a neverending parade of white guys.
My bet is that the first woman president will be Republican. I think it is a mistake to interpret the anti-Hillary sentiments, with all the misogyny those included, as meaning the GOP wouldn't support a conservative woman who plays to those sentiments.
posted by Dip Flash at 6:15 AM on February 25 [19 favorites]
The only three female Prime Ministers of the UK have all been Tories-- and currently, the first man of colour. Meanwhile, Labour have had a neverending parade of white guys.
My bet is that the first woman president will be Republican. I think it is a mistake to interpret the anti-Hillary sentiments, with all the misogyny those included, as meaning the GOP wouldn't support a conservative woman who plays to those sentiments.
posted by Dip Flash at 6:15 AM on February 25 [19 favorites]
It's not that the trumpists aren't aware of all of this, including the rape, it's that they imagine "everyone does it". Remember, "they let you do it when you are a star". I think that is why projection plays such a huge part in the trumpian discourse.
Hypocrisy is a vice for the powerless but a privilege of the powerful; it is a way of ostentatiously showing yourself to be above the rules. Of course conservatives, who worship power and impunity and domination, love hypocrites.
posted by Pope Guilty at 6:23 AM on February 25 [24 favorites]
Hypocrisy is a vice for the powerless but a privilege of the powerful; it is a way of ostentatiously showing yourself to be above the rules. Of course conservatives, who worship power and impunity and domination, love hypocrites.
posted by Pope Guilty at 6:23 AM on February 25 [24 favorites]
By this point, White Evangelical Christianity has largely filtered out anybody who's able to see Trump for who he is.
Making them increasingly radicalized against liberal democracy. At this point, the largest and most influential Christian denominations in this country are those that are the most incompatible with the enlightenment and liberalism. They've been boiled down to the pure product of fundamentalism.
And now that they're so isolated from anyone outside their tribe, I don't know how the fuck this gets resolved. With Christian Dominionists in power like Mike Johnson and that fucking Alabama judge, how exactly does this get unraveled? 20 years' worth of elections in which they steadily lose ground seems like the best-case scenario, and it also seems too optimistic to hope that transpires without continued violent reaction and ratcheting erosion of liberties from our conservative-stacked judiciary.
posted by Room 101 at 6:42 AM on February 25 [12 favorites]
Making them increasingly radicalized against liberal democracy. At this point, the largest and most influential Christian denominations in this country are those that are the most incompatible with the enlightenment and liberalism. They've been boiled down to the pure product of fundamentalism.
And now that they're so isolated from anyone outside their tribe, I don't know how the fuck this gets resolved. With Christian Dominionists in power like Mike Johnson and that fucking Alabama judge, how exactly does this get unraveled? 20 years' worth of elections in which they steadily lose ground seems like the best-case scenario, and it also seems too optimistic to hope that transpires without continued violent reaction and ratcheting erosion of liberties from our conservative-stacked judiciary.
posted by Room 101 at 6:42 AM on February 25 [12 favorites]
If there’s one thing republicans love it’s the “this person is an X, they can’t possibly Y or Z-ist!” maneuver, which always seems to dumbfound a certain portion of the liberal commentariat.
Admittedly they love this one specific white dude rapist criminal a whole lot more.
posted by Artw at 7:03 AM on February 25 [6 favorites]
Admittedly they love this one specific white dude rapist criminal a whole lot more.
posted by Artw at 7:03 AM on February 25 [6 favorites]
It's a bit rough reading this thread where there is so much confusion about how the delegates are apportioned in SC. To quote NYT, "Twenty-nine go to the overall winner, and candidates receive three for each congressional district they win." In SC, forty-four have already been called for Trump; six are uncalled as I type. In the primary so far, Trump is leading 107 to 17 for Haley.
posted by betaray at 7:26 AM on February 25 [3 favorites]
posted by betaray at 7:26 AM on February 25 [3 favorites]
Hypocrisy is a vice for the powerless but a privilege of the powerful; it is a way of ostentatiously showing yourself to be above the rules. Of course conservatives, who worship power and impunity and domination, love hypocrites.
Power, at its simplest definition, has two components. One is authority -- the ability to tell others, this is how things will be, this is what you must do, and have that order obeyed. The other is defiance of authority -- the ability to tell others, you can't tell me how things will be or what I must do.
And the people to whom Trump are reaching out are the ones who believe in the socio-cultural strata that have defined America throughout its history. (There is a word for a system that tiers and privileges people according to their race, ethnicity, religious beliefs, sexual identity and preference, gender, and similar characteristics, rather than any form of actual merit or fairness.) They have watched court decisions and changing societal tides make progress in dismantling that system somewhat, evening the playing field somewhat, telling them that, no, you do not get to discriminate against women or LGBTs or non-conservative-Christians or non-Caucasians or whoever else you consider The Other simply because they're not of your tribe.
To them, the defiance of Trump and his minions is an asset, not a liability. If a law is an inconvenience, he goes around it or simply ignores it because it obviously doesn't apply to him. If a court decision rules against him, it's not a loss, it's bias and injustice and subject to appeal. If a woman says 'no,' she doesn't have authority to say that to him. If The Other claims to have rights, he can simply declare that they don't. Facts are mutable things. Truth is a mutable thing. Reality itself is bendable. All subtlety is long gone. It is all about defiance of authority -- they can arrest me, they can condemn me, they can fine me, they can accuse me of anything, but as long as I declare loudly that 2 + 2 = 5 and they have no power over me, people will follow me even if they know that the actual answer is 4.
What he's selling to them is, increasingly, fantasyland. We're going to dismantle the government root and branch and do away with decades of progress that established that, yes, you can be a woman or you can be gay or you can be non-Caucasian or you can be non-Christian and still have full citizenship and civil rights in this country. We're going to put prayer back in schools, razor wire on the border, trans people in jail, women under our thumbs and watchful eyes, and society just the way it was in 1953 when The Other Knew Their Place. We're going to hit America with a fascist bulldozer and seize authority, and they can't stop us from forcing our will, that's the message.
Thing is, we can stop them, and we've demonstrated that. The more of a Reverse Atwater Trump pulls, discarding subtlety and dogwhistles because the base wants open slurs and hatred now, the more of the mainstream finds him even more repulsive. The trick is to convince them that the alternative, while not great, is worth backing simply because he's the alternative to that.
posted by delfin at 7:36 AM on February 25 [29 favorites]
Power, at its simplest definition, has two components. One is authority -- the ability to tell others, this is how things will be, this is what you must do, and have that order obeyed. The other is defiance of authority -- the ability to tell others, you can't tell me how things will be or what I must do.
And the people to whom Trump are reaching out are the ones who believe in the socio-cultural strata that have defined America throughout its history. (There is a word for a system that tiers and privileges people according to their race, ethnicity, religious beliefs, sexual identity and preference, gender, and similar characteristics, rather than any form of actual merit or fairness.) They have watched court decisions and changing societal tides make progress in dismantling that system somewhat, evening the playing field somewhat, telling them that, no, you do not get to discriminate against women or LGBTs or non-conservative-Christians or non-Caucasians or whoever else you consider The Other simply because they're not of your tribe.
To them, the defiance of Trump and his minions is an asset, not a liability. If a law is an inconvenience, he goes around it or simply ignores it because it obviously doesn't apply to him. If a court decision rules against him, it's not a loss, it's bias and injustice and subject to appeal. If a woman says 'no,' she doesn't have authority to say that to him. If The Other claims to have rights, he can simply declare that they don't. Facts are mutable things. Truth is a mutable thing. Reality itself is bendable. All subtlety is long gone. It is all about defiance of authority -- they can arrest me, they can condemn me, they can fine me, they can accuse me of anything, but as long as I declare loudly that 2 + 2 = 5 and they have no power over me, people will follow me even if they know that the actual answer is 4.
What he's selling to them is, increasingly, fantasyland. We're going to dismantle the government root and branch and do away with decades of progress that established that, yes, you can be a woman or you can be gay or you can be non-Caucasian or you can be non-Christian and still have full citizenship and civil rights in this country. We're going to put prayer back in schools, razor wire on the border, trans people in jail, women under our thumbs and watchful eyes, and society just the way it was in 1953 when The Other Knew Their Place. We're going to hit America with a fascist bulldozer and seize authority, and they can't stop us from forcing our will, that's the message.
Thing is, we can stop them, and we've demonstrated that. The more of a Reverse Atwater Trump pulls, discarding subtlety and dogwhistles because the base wants open slurs and hatred now, the more of the mainstream finds him even more repulsive. The trick is to convince them that the alternative, while not great, is worth backing simply because he's the alternative to that.
posted by delfin at 7:36 AM on February 25 [29 favorites]
Maga supporters boo Lindsey Graham as Trump introduces him at South Carolina victory party
They may love petty revenge most of all.
posted by Artw at 7:42 AM on February 25 [2 favorites]
They may love petty revenge most of all.
posted by Artw at 7:42 AM on February 25 [2 favorites]
4 out of 10 Republican voters may just not vote in the general.
Where are you getting this from? posted by star gentle uterus at 10:45 PM
My own in-laws & the last election - many of these post-evangelicals who may or may not have been evangelical preachers have outed themselves from that community over what a total POS TFG is/was. They voted (against Warnock in the GA runnoff) in every other election including Coroner but never a vote for TFG.
Also up thread about how the RNC awards delegates, currently TFG 107 Haley 20 - so it's not winner take all.
posted by djseafood at 7:50 AM on February 25 [1 favorite]
Where are you getting this from? posted by star gentle uterus at 10:45 PM
My own in-laws & the last election - many of these post-evangelicals who may or may not have been evangelical preachers have outed themselves from that community over what a total POS TFG is/was. They voted (against Warnock in the GA runnoff) in every other election including Coroner but never a vote for TFG.
Also up thread about how the RNC awards delegates, currently TFG 107 Haley 20 - so it's not winner take all.
posted by djseafood at 7:50 AM on February 25 [1 favorite]
I drive myself up a wall sometimes searching for an analogy I'd use if I heard someone in the wild use the, "Biden is so old!" trope. Maybe something like, "You'd fire a nanny who did an okay job because she was old then replace here with an only slightly less old nanny who is a sex offender, stole shit from your house, and told your kids how great Hitler was, because--" and then I realize I'd be sputtering by then and that no one listens to me politically because all I have is friends who agree with me on this and relatives and coworkers who know to stay the fuck away from politics near me because I'm about seventeen light years to the left of them.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 8:12 AM on February 25 [20 favorites]
posted by DirtyOldTown at 8:12 AM on February 25 [20 favorites]
Only about 13% of Americans are white evangelical "Christians". Keep that in mind as we go into this cycle. Yes, they vote at significantly higher rates than most other groups, but still.
He only won 60/40 in that primary, when he should be making his coronation circuit. A disproportionate number of his stans died of old age or Covid. He's made a very small number of new fans from young white Andrew Tate boys and non-white downscale men who like brutality. But these are wildly outnumbered by young people, pissed-off women who never thought RvW would be actually overturned, and small-c conservative suburbanites who only liked the dogwhistles. He's going to lose, badly, and at some point, this is going to become clear—and that's why Haley is still in the race.
The legacy media is desperate for eyeballs, so they'll say and do anything they can to make this look like a close race. Biden is going to mostly keep shut until we get to Labor Day or so, and then he's going to unload on all the shitty things Trump and the Republicans are, and do a couple of good things like reschedule weed and start calling out Netanyahu for the war criminal he is, but he's not going to do or say anything radical, and people have seen enough of Trump and don't want him back.
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 11:30 AM on February 25 [13 favorites]
He only won 60/40 in that primary, when he should be making his coronation circuit. A disproportionate number of his stans died of old age or Covid. He's made a very small number of new fans from young white Andrew Tate boys and non-white downscale men who like brutality. But these are wildly outnumbered by young people, pissed-off women who never thought RvW would be actually overturned, and small-c conservative suburbanites who only liked the dogwhistles. He's going to lose, badly, and at some point, this is going to become clear—and that's why Haley is still in the race.
The legacy media is desperate for eyeballs, so they'll say and do anything they can to make this look like a close race. Biden is going to mostly keep shut until we get to Labor Day or so, and then he's going to unload on all the shitty things Trump and the Republicans are, and do a couple of good things like reschedule weed and start calling out Netanyahu for the war criminal he is, but he's not going to do or say anything radical, and people have seen enough of Trump and don't want him back.
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 11:30 AM on February 25 [13 favorites]
outgrown_hobnail, I don't know if it's as rosy as all that. But you make a lot of good points and I am cautiously hopeful, in part because despair is lethal.
posted by Glinn at 11:49 AM on February 25 [7 favorites]
posted by Glinn at 11:49 AM on February 25 [7 favorites]
So reading through these comments: "Biden is like that because of his childhood stutter" is finally dead now? Good.
posted by Lentrohamsanin at 1:07 PM on February 25 [1 favorite]
posted by Lentrohamsanin at 1:07 PM on February 25 [1 favorite]
He's going to lose, badly
I hope that's so. I was pretty certain it was so in 2020, though, and that was much, much closer than a race between someone who had spent 4 years showing manifest unfitness for office and someone who hadn't should be. Four years later, people have had a lot of time to sour on Biden for the sole reason that he's actually been steering the ship of state and doing so always seems to make people dislike you for whatever it is you do more than it ever makes people like you. And we don't have new unfitness for Trump --- the things which make him utterly unfit now were known in 2020. Some of them have turned into indictments and whatnot, but honestly, it's hard to imagine people who would stomach him then who can't now.
But of course, the real problem is that the issue of how popular someone is in America is completely irrelevant. The relevant question in 2016 was "how popular is someone in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania"? That was also the relevant question in 2020, and it's going to be the relevant question in 2024. Because of the stupid way we do things, Trump making himself unpopular in, say, Maryland and Massachusetts and California matters not at all. Making himself unpopular in Alabama and Indiana and Texas isn't going to hurt him unless he's already sunk on other issues. There might be other places in play (Georgia? North Carolina? Pretty sure the brainworms have taken over Florida), but I'd be willing to bet it comes down to Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. And the no-win situaiton vis-a-vis Israel is worrisome with respect to Michigan, which has a pretty solid Palestinian voting bloc.
posted by jackbishop at 1:12 PM on February 25 [9 favorites]
I hope that's so. I was pretty certain it was so in 2020, though, and that was much, much closer than a race between someone who had spent 4 years showing manifest unfitness for office and someone who hadn't should be. Four years later, people have had a lot of time to sour on Biden for the sole reason that he's actually been steering the ship of state and doing so always seems to make people dislike you for whatever it is you do more than it ever makes people like you. And we don't have new unfitness for Trump --- the things which make him utterly unfit now were known in 2020. Some of them have turned into indictments and whatnot, but honestly, it's hard to imagine people who would stomach him then who can't now.
But of course, the real problem is that the issue of how popular someone is in America is completely irrelevant. The relevant question in 2016 was "how popular is someone in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania"? That was also the relevant question in 2020, and it's going to be the relevant question in 2024. Because of the stupid way we do things, Trump making himself unpopular in, say, Maryland and Massachusetts and California matters not at all. Making himself unpopular in Alabama and Indiana and Texas isn't going to hurt him unless he's already sunk on other issues. There might be other places in play (Georgia? North Carolina? Pretty sure the brainworms have taken over Florida), but I'd be willing to bet it comes down to Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. And the no-win situaiton vis-a-vis Israel is worrisome with respect to Michigan, which has a pretty solid Palestinian voting bloc.
posted by jackbishop at 1:12 PM on February 25 [9 favorites]
While walking the dog, I came to think of 1 Corinthians 13:13, as one does.
And now abideth faith, hope, charity, these three; but the greatest of these is charity.
I feel the Christian Right needs a real charismatic profet, someone who can show them how they have strayed and tell them how to find their way back. They are worshipping a literal idol. They have forgotten the core of Christian faith. We, the atheists, Jews and Muslims who are looking on this in horror cannot tell them anything.
I know both Catholic and Protestant philosophers helped Germans find their way back after Nazism. Maybe this is worth exploring?
posted by mumimor at 1:26 PM on February 25 [4 favorites]
And now abideth faith, hope, charity, these three; but the greatest of these is charity.
I feel the Christian Right needs a real charismatic profet, someone who can show them how they have strayed and tell them how to find their way back. They are worshipping a literal idol. They have forgotten the core of Christian faith. We, the atheists, Jews and Muslims who are looking on this in horror cannot tell them anything.
I know both Catholic and Protestant philosophers helped Germans find their way back after Nazism. Maybe this is worth exploring?
posted by mumimor at 1:26 PM on February 25 [4 favorites]
I keep envisioning a protest movement where thousands of people show up at these megachurches keeping silent vigil with signs that are all just Bible verses which explicitly chastise the evangelicals for their behavior.
Because there are a lot of those verses.
posted by MrVisible at 2:10 PM on February 25 [7 favorites]
Because there are a lot of those verses.
posted by MrVisible at 2:10 PM on February 25 [7 favorites]
Yes, but these are the sorts of organizations which have their own police and militias. I can't remember if it's Tim Alberta or Jeff Sharlet who used the phrase "militia churches", but some of these places have people actively carrying automatic weapons as the "rod and staff" that shall comfort from Psalm 23.
posted by hippybear at 2:24 PM on February 25 [1 favorite]
posted by hippybear at 2:24 PM on February 25 [1 favorite]
He's going to lose, badly
I hope that's so. I was pretty certain it was so in 2020, though, and that was much, much closer than a race between someone who had spent 4 years showing manifest unfitness for office and someone who hadn't should be.
I absolutely, firmly believed Trump was going to win in 2020, fairly handily, and was gobsmacked when he didn't. I didn't think he would outright win the popular vote, but that he had the electoral college in a lock. He was the incumbent; his team was going to vote for him. Now, he's not the incumbent; he's a loser and his shtick is old. It would not surprise me if Biden won one of TX/FL/OH in addition to running the swing states plus NC. Michigan is the only question mark, because while the vast majority of that Arab population is going to come to their senses that Trump is far worse for Palestine than Biden, there's enough of them who won't that it puts the state into question.
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 4:53 PM on February 25 [7 favorites]
I hope that's so. I was pretty certain it was so in 2020, though, and that was much, much closer than a race between someone who had spent 4 years showing manifest unfitness for office and someone who hadn't should be.
I absolutely, firmly believed Trump was going to win in 2020, fairly handily, and was gobsmacked when he didn't. I didn't think he would outright win the popular vote, but that he had the electoral college in a lock. He was the incumbent; his team was going to vote for him. Now, he's not the incumbent; he's a loser and his shtick is old. It would not surprise me if Biden won one of TX/FL/OH in addition to running the swing states plus NC. Michigan is the only question mark, because while the vast majority of that Arab population is going to come to their senses that Trump is far worse for Palestine than Biden, there's enough of them who won't that it puts the state into question.
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 4:53 PM on February 25 [7 favorites]
He's going to lose, badly
This, I think, is the core of why Haley is (so far) staying in the race. She is repugnant and I'll never vote for her, but she's largely correct that a) Trump is on a path to defeat and b) she could spank Biden in a general election. And yet, she can't seem to get traction beyond the 30-40 percent she has had so far in the primary. So near, and yet so far.
posted by Dip Flash at 5:03 PM on February 25 [2 favorites]
This, I think, is the core of why Haley is (so far) staying in the race. She is repugnant and I'll never vote for her, but she's largely correct that a) Trump is on a path to defeat and b) she could spank Biden in a general election. And yet, she can't seem to get traction beyond the 30-40 percent she has had so far in the primary. So near, and yet so far.
posted by Dip Flash at 5:03 PM on February 25 [2 favorites]
Biden's brain is aging. Trump's brain is dementing. John Gartner in Salon.
posted by jokeefe at 7:17 PM on February 25 [3 favorites]
posted by jokeefe at 7:17 PM on February 25 [3 favorites]
At the moment, Trump and his followers are QUITE LITERALLY acting out the dril tweet about turning a dial marked 'racism' back and forth and scanning the audience for reactions, like on The Price Is Right. But the dial is only turning in one direction.
He is up there at the podium to suck up adoration from the rubes, and the normals aren't clapping and cheering him any more. Now, decades of Mirror Universe Media programming and propaganda have ensured that there are a hell of a lot of rubes still out there, ready to be told what they want to hear. And what are they hearing now?
That Trump will seal the border, restore the ethnic/religion travel bans, extend them to anyone who is even deemed 'sympathetic' to certain causes or groups, and pour vast resources into mass deportation waves and permanent exile. That he plans to authorize the National Guard to deploy into major cities to 'fight crime' with military force, whether local authorities or state Governors want that or not. That he wants police and other law enforcement to be empowered to shoot-to-kill for crimes as petty as shoplifting, with immunity from prosecution. That his second term will be blatant and vindictive revenge on his political and cultural enemies lists.
And the card-carrying National Socialists and white supremacists in the CPAC audience and at his rallies eat that up, naturally. But that kind of "it's open season on non-Caucasians" hatred is catering to the people who are already 100% voting for him, not to anyone who has even the slightest amount of indecision remaining. He has neither the ability nor the desire to self-moderate, to appear disciplined or stable, or to present a competent image to compare to the doddering old fool that he keeps claiming that Biden is. Bloody shirts are all he's got left to work with, and those have an inherently limited audience; he's preaching solely to a Westover Baptist choir.
He has most of this year left to continue to pander harder and harder, and to dig the hole deeper and deeper. And we all get to watch.
posted by delfin at 7:34 PM on February 25 [7 favorites]
He is up there at the podium to suck up adoration from the rubes, and the normals aren't clapping and cheering him any more. Now, decades of Mirror Universe Media programming and propaganda have ensured that there are a hell of a lot of rubes still out there, ready to be told what they want to hear. And what are they hearing now?
That Trump will seal the border, restore the ethnic/religion travel bans, extend them to anyone who is even deemed 'sympathetic' to certain causes or groups, and pour vast resources into mass deportation waves and permanent exile. That he plans to authorize the National Guard to deploy into major cities to 'fight crime' with military force, whether local authorities or state Governors want that or not. That he wants police and other law enforcement to be empowered to shoot-to-kill for crimes as petty as shoplifting, with immunity from prosecution. That his second term will be blatant and vindictive revenge on his political and cultural enemies lists.
And the card-carrying National Socialists and white supremacists in the CPAC audience and at his rallies eat that up, naturally. But that kind of "it's open season on non-Caucasians" hatred is catering to the people who are already 100% voting for him, not to anyone who has even the slightest amount of indecision remaining. He has neither the ability nor the desire to self-moderate, to appear disciplined or stable, or to present a competent image to compare to the doddering old fool that he keeps claiming that Biden is. Bloody shirts are all he's got left to work with, and those have an inherently limited audience; he's preaching solely to a Westover Baptist choir.
He has most of this year left to continue to pander harder and harder, and to dig the hole deeper and deeper. And we all get to watch.
posted by delfin at 7:34 PM on February 25 [7 favorites]
I'm not at all worried about Trump winning. I'm more worried about him losing but somehow becoming president anyway.
posted by rifflesby at 8:16 PM on February 25 [10 favorites]
posted by rifflesby at 8:16 PM on February 25 [10 favorites]
I mean, there is no way in hell he will legitimately and democratically win, but it’s American politics so that only matters so much in the normal course of things, slightly less with a coupe being so openly threatened.
posted by Artw at 8:27 PM on February 25 [2 favorites]
posted by Artw at 8:27 PM on February 25 [2 favorites]
You know, in 2016 I thought there was just no way that the overwhelming majority of American voters would hear the overt bigotry and incoherent word salad that Trump was spewing and not hand Hillary a landslide win.
posted by Reverend John at 8:46 PM on February 25 [5 favorites]
posted by Reverend John at 8:46 PM on February 25 [5 favorites]
I'm not even slightly comfortable in the presumption that Biden will win. We all felt that way about Clinton too.
Worse, they've worked out how they can probably cheat and win in such a manner it almost appears to be democratic: trigger a contingent election via a friendly Republican state government declaring its ballots tainted. It's not so much that no one knew it was possible earlier, its just they hadn't realized they could get away with something so blatant.
I'd like to say they can only steal it if it's close enough, but I don't think that's true.
And Biden is STILL shitting on his critical voters in Michigan so the Republicans might not even have to cheat beyond their usual vote suppression.
posted by sotonohito at 9:10 PM on February 25 [8 favorites]
Worse, they've worked out how they can probably cheat and win in such a manner it almost appears to be democratic: trigger a contingent election via a friendly Republican state government declaring its ballots tainted. It's not so much that no one knew it was possible earlier, its just they hadn't realized they could get away with something so blatant.
I'd like to say they can only steal it if it's close enough, but I don't think that's true.
And Biden is STILL shitting on his critical voters in Michigan so the Republicans might not even have to cheat beyond their usual vote suppression.
posted by sotonohito at 9:10 PM on February 25 [8 favorites]
I trust elections more than polls and the recent election in PA was very positive - that’s a hard state for Trump to win without.
But still. Limited hope.
posted by Artw at 9:15 PM on February 25 [4 favorites]
But still. Limited hope.
posted by Artw at 9:15 PM on February 25 [4 favorites]
The bit that keeps me sane and hoping is that Trump is not winning over new voters, and indeed seems to be deliberately alienating as many voters as he can, which he absolutely cannot afford to do.
He and the Repubs have lost a string of elections, many of which they should have won, or at least done better. Only notable 'win' for them was the House, and only barely, and the shit show that has turned out for them does not suggest they are going to improve their fortunes there.
Helped along by more than a handful of batshit insane words and deeds of late from state Repub representatives and judges.
The stench of corruption, incompetence, and degradation about them just gets stronger and stronger.
Plus a big chunk of nominally Repub voters have said that if Trump gets a criminal conviction they will not vote for him, and it seem highly likely he will pick up at least one of those convictions before November. Judge Cannon cannot block all the trials.
posted by Pouteria at 10:08 PM on February 25 [2 favorites]
He and the Repubs have lost a string of elections, many of which they should have won, or at least done better. Only notable 'win' for them was the House, and only barely, and the shit show that has turned out for them does not suggest they are going to improve their fortunes there.
Helped along by more than a handful of batshit insane words and deeds of late from state Repub representatives and judges.
The stench of corruption, incompetence, and degradation about them just gets stronger and stronger.
Plus a big chunk of nominally Repub voters have said that if Trump gets a criminal conviction they will not vote for him, and it seem highly likely he will pick up at least one of those convictions before November. Judge Cannon cannot block all the trials.
posted by Pouteria at 10:08 PM on February 25 [2 favorites]
"Do you know what time it is?" Is a 1986 track from Hip-Hop pioneer Kool Moe Dee. The concept of "knowing the time" referring to being aware of what's going on, has been part of African American Vernacular English for decades ( Just ask Flavor Flav )
I feel, this phrase was appropriated.
posted by Stu-Pendous at 4:51 AM on February 26 [3 favorites]
I feel, this phrase was appropriated.
posted by Stu-Pendous at 4:51 AM on February 26 [3 favorites]
because while the vast majority of that Arab population is going to come to their senses that Trump is far worse for Palestine than Biden
Heaping condescension on this group is not going to help them "come to their senses". Can you please show a little more sympathy and leave a little more room for nuance? It's one thing to act like a smug asshole around privileged, young, idealistic voters who aren't able to understand your sage pragmatism, but this is a group of people who are experiencing an active genocide and maybe framing the very real ethical dilemma that they face in the coming election in such flippant, dismissive terms is kind of dickish.
posted by RonButNotStupid at 5:42 AM on February 26 [17 favorites]
Heaping condescension on this group is not going to help them "come to their senses". Can you please show a little more sympathy and leave a little more room for nuance? It's one thing to act like a smug asshole around privileged, young, idealistic voters who aren't able to understand your sage pragmatism, but this is a group of people who are experiencing an active genocide and maybe framing the very real ethical dilemma that they face in the coming election in such flippant, dismissive terms is kind of dickish.
posted by RonButNotStupid at 5:42 AM on February 26 [17 favorites]
I said something like this a lot during the 2016 election, and I'll say it again this round: I'll believe Trump is losing when he loses the general.
posted by JoeXIII007 at 5:43 AM on February 26 [3 favorites]
posted by JoeXIII007 at 5:43 AM on February 26 [3 favorites]
I’ve seen the dangers of Michael Whatley’s ‘leadership.’ It’s clear why Trump chose him.
It’s clear that Trump is looking for an RNC leader who won’t hesitate to disenfranchise voters, rig elections or dismantle our democracy.
posted by Artw at 7:46 AM on February 26 [1 favorite]
It’s clear that Trump is looking for an RNC leader who won’t hesitate to disenfranchise voters, rig elections or dismantle our democracy.
posted by Artw at 7:46 AM on February 26 [1 favorite]
The 1950 census is available to the public. The census lists people's ethnicities. Maybe someone with access (to the U.S. Archives, for example) could look at Fred Trump's buildings. (Shorehaven Apartments at 2064 Cropsey Avenue in Brooklyn, containing 2,207 suites (1949). Beach Haven with 2,253 units at 2611 West 2d Street, Brooklyn (1950))
I remember an advertisement from the early 50s where Fred Trump was paying tenants to be in his buildings. My guess is that it was to garner white tenants.
From Fred Trump's Wikipedia article referencing his 1970s lawsuit:
A former doorman testified that his supervisor had instructed him to tell prospective black tenants that the rent was double its actual amount. Four landlords or rental agents confirmed that applications sent to the Trump organization's head office for approval were coded by the race of the applicant. One former employee testified that a code – which he believed was used throughout the Brooklyn branch of the company – referred to "low lifes" such as "blacks, Puerto Ricans, apparent drug users, or any other type of undesirable applicant", and nine times out of ten it meant the applicant was black; blacks were also falsely told there were no vacancies. A rental agent who had worked with the company for two weeks said that when he asked Fred Trump if he should rent to blacks, he was told that it was "absolutely against the law to discriminate", but after asking again, he was instructed "not to rent to blacks", and was further advised to:
get rid of the blacks that were in the building by telling them cheap housing was available for them at only $500 down payment, which Trump would offer to pay himself. Trump didn't tell me where this housing was located. He advised me not to rent to persons on welfare.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 12:55 PM on February 26 [1 favorite]
I remember an advertisement from the early 50s where Fred Trump was paying tenants to be in his buildings. My guess is that it was to garner white tenants.
From Fred Trump's Wikipedia article referencing his 1970s lawsuit:
A former doorman testified that his supervisor had instructed him to tell prospective black tenants that the rent was double its actual amount. Four landlords or rental agents confirmed that applications sent to the Trump organization's head office for approval were coded by the race of the applicant. One former employee testified that a code – which he believed was used throughout the Brooklyn branch of the company – referred to "low lifes" such as "blacks, Puerto Ricans, apparent drug users, or any other type of undesirable applicant", and nine times out of ten it meant the applicant was black; blacks were also falsely told there were no vacancies. A rental agent who had worked with the company for two weeks said that when he asked Fred Trump if he should rent to blacks, he was told that it was "absolutely against the law to discriminate", but after asking again, he was instructed "not to rent to blacks", and was further advised to:
get rid of the blacks that were in the building by telling them cheap housing was available for them at only $500 down payment, which Trump would offer to pay himself. Trump didn't tell me where this housing was located. He advised me not to rent to persons on welfare.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 12:55 PM on February 26 [1 favorite]
NBC Editor Posts Documentation of Nazis at CPAC after Organization Slams Report as ‘False’
“CPAC is continuing to call our reporting about Nazis at the conference ‘fake news.’ They haven’t responded to the video and photo evidence. This is Ryan Sanchez, a known and public neo-Nazi, giving a Nazi salute at CPAC. Greg Conte, who is also a public Nazi, is on his left,” Goggin replied to an additional tweet from CPAC and included the clip of the Nazi salute in a public space at the conference. Goggin posted other images showing Sanchez at the conference and interacting with other far-right, extremist figures.posted by Rhaomi at 4:58 PM on February 26 [10 favorites]
Ah the old technique of “just lying all of the time”. Good to see alternate approaches to responding to that tried instead of “just meekly accept that”.
posted by Artw at 6:41 PM on February 26 [3 favorites]
posted by Artw at 6:41 PM on February 26 [3 favorites]
Okay, I discovered that the 1950 census is available online. I did the research into who comprised Fred Trump's tenants. Shore Haven had been built prior to the census. It had 3717 occupants. There is not a single individual listed as being anything other than white. This includes none being listed for the census categories of Negro, American Indian, Chinese, Japanese, Filipino, and Other. Out of 589 identified as born in countries outside the United States, only one was born in Ireland.
They did not seem to discriminate against Jews: a lot of common Jewish names were present. A heavy number of those born in Eastern Europe were represented, for example: 202 born in Russia, 86 born in Poland.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 9:47 AM on February 29 [7 favorites]
They did not seem to discriminate against Jews: a lot of common Jewish names were present. A heavy number of those born in Eastern Europe were represented, for example: 202 born in Russia, 86 born in Poland.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 9:47 AM on February 29 [7 favorites]
What should we take from the Michigan primary results on the Dem side?
posted by Selena777 at 9:06 AM on March 1
posted by Selena777 at 9:06 AM on March 1
"Uncommitted" votes were a clear but modest increase over protest votes against Obama in 2012, 13% instead of ~10%. This doesn't support any firm takeaways.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 10:10 AM on March 1
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 10:10 AM on March 1
That maybe racist and Islamophobic liberals should start understanding them and listening to their concerns instead of throwing out condescending bullshit like "why won't they come to their senses?" and threatening to use rightwing federal goon squads against their left flank?
posted by Glegrinof the Pig-Man at 10:15 AM on March 1 [2 favorites]
posted by Glegrinof the Pig-Man at 10:15 AM on March 1 [2 favorites]
Nope, I guess that's too hard, looks like it's bigotry all the way.
posted by Glegrinof the Pig-Man at 10:16 AM on March 1 [1 favorite]
posted by Glegrinof the Pig-Man at 10:16 AM on March 1 [1 favorite]
Genuine question: which liberals are threatening to use right wing federal goon squads against the left?
posted by Reverend John at 10:52 AM on March 1 [1 favorite]
posted by Reverend John at 10:52 AM on March 1 [1 favorite]
Pelosi Wants F.B.I. to Investigate Pro-Palestinian Protesters
The former House speaker suggested without offering evidence that some protesters calling for a cease-fire in Gaza had financial ties to Russia and Vladimir V. Putin.
posted by Glegrinof the Pig-Man at 11:01 AM on March 1 [3 favorites]
The former House speaker suggested without offering evidence that some protesters calling for a cease-fire in Gaza had financial ties to Russia and Vladimir V. Putin.
posted by Glegrinof the Pig-Man at 11:01 AM on March 1 [3 favorites]
Fair enough, thanks for the link.
posted by Reverend John at 11:17 AM on March 1
posted by Reverend John at 11:17 AM on March 1
Michigan is the only question mark, because while the vast majority of that Arab population is going to come to their senses that Trump is far worse for Palestine than Biden, there's enough of them who won't that it puts the state into question.
Can I just say that garbage like this makes this site really hostile to people of color in general and Arabs in particular? I know Palestinians are some hypothetical to you but you're not talking about some generic other, you're talking about people that I care about.
It's why you've lost me and the vast majority of young voters of color. And I promise to you that I actively refuse to "come to my senses" and will encourage the same of all of my friends and allies. If the geriatric corporate Dems want me to vote for them, they can stop murdering the families of people I love.
posted by lizard2590 at 1:26 PM on March 1 [10 favorites]
Can I just say that garbage like this makes this site really hostile to people of color in general and Arabs in particular? I know Palestinians are some hypothetical to you but you're not talking about some generic other, you're talking about people that I care about.
It's why you've lost me and the vast majority of young voters of color. And I promise to you that I actively refuse to "come to my senses" and will encourage the same of all of my friends and allies. If the geriatric corporate Dems want me to vote for them, they can stop murdering the families of people I love.
posted by lizard2590 at 1:26 PM on March 1 [10 favorites]
“I Was Banned From CPAC, but the Extremists Weren’t,” Amanda Moore, The Nation, 27 February 2024
posted by ob1quixote at 5:38 PM on March 1 [2 favorites]
posted by ob1quixote at 5:38 PM on March 1 [2 favorites]
Some good news. Those pills showing Trump and Biden running neck and neck are probably way off. The polls this cycle have overstated Trump's performance. Trump's actual margin in the primaries has underperformed that predicted by the polls by:
0-5%: AL, IA, TX
6-10%: CA, ME, NH, SC
10-15%: MA, MI, OK, TN, UT
20% or more: MN, VA, VT
In fact, in VT he was favored by 30 points and ended up losing to Haley by 4.
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 11:00 AM on March 6
0-5%: AL, IA, TX
6-10%: CA, ME, NH, SC
10-15%: MA, MI, OK, TN, UT
20% or more: MN, VA, VT
In fact, in VT he was favored by 30 points and ended up losing to Haley by 4.
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 11:00 AM on March 6
As ever trust elections more than polls.
That said some really depressing as shit stuff coming out some of the down ballot votes. Looks like we are maybe avoiding hardcore GOP fascism but settling in for a nice stretch of the Democratic Party at its most right wing under the threat of GOP fascism and a lot of police hugging at local level.
Bad time to care about climate, countering billionaires, pushing back against over policing or ad internet bills etc.
posted by Artw at 11:27 AM on March 6 [3 favorites]
That said some really depressing as shit stuff coming out some of the down ballot votes. Looks like we are maybe avoiding hardcore GOP fascism but settling in for a nice stretch of the Democratic Party at its most right wing under the threat of GOP fascism and a lot of police hugging at local level.
Bad time to care about climate, countering billionaires, pushing back against over policing or ad internet bills etc.
posted by Artw at 11:27 AM on March 6 [3 favorites]
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posted by kozad at 3:21 PM on February 24 [3 favorites]