Terrorism
February 22, 2007 1:49 PM Subscribe
The Iraq Effect: The War in Iraq and its Impact on the War on Terrorism. "The war has inspired a wave of terrorism around the world. Excluding Iraq and Afghanistan, the number of jihadist attacks has jumped 35 percent in the past four years. A Mother Jones exclusive study by Peter Bergen and Paul Cruickshank."
So the war on terror isn't working? Who'd have thunk it.
Those charts are both depressing and scary.
posted by chunking express at 1:54 PM on February 22, 2007
Those charts are both depressing and scary.
posted by chunking express at 1:54 PM on February 22, 2007
To swipe a line from Norm MacDonald, "This according to a new study in the journal DUH."
posted by Banky_Edwards at 2:01 PM on February 22, 2007 [1 favorite]
posted by Banky_Edwards at 2:01 PM on February 22, 2007 [1 favorite]
That's exactly the opposite of what everybody knew would happen! Has the world gone topsy-turvy?
posted by UbuRoivas at 2:04 PM on February 22, 2007
posted by UbuRoivas at 2:04 PM on February 22, 2007
So this Iraq War, it's bad?
posted by Slap Factory at 2:05 PM on February 22, 2007
posted by Slap Factory at 2:05 PM on February 22, 2007
correlation doesn't equal causality*
*except when it's telling you something you want to hear
posted by drjimmy11 at 2:09 PM on February 22, 2007
*except when it's telling you something you want to hear
posted by drjimmy11 at 2:09 PM on February 22, 2007
So the war on terror isn't working?
No. .. It's working great! Military spending is at an all-time high, funding and support for liberal dalliances such as PBS and universal health care are in sharp decline, and divisive fundamental religious zealotry is only increasing. This spells pure profit if you are a fat, white middle-aged plutocrat.
posted by isopraxis at 2:12 PM on February 22, 2007 [4 favorites]
No. .. It's working great! Military spending is at an all-time high, funding and support for liberal dalliances such as PBS and universal health care are in sharp decline, and divisive fundamental religious zealotry is only increasing. This spells pure profit if you are a fat, white middle-aged plutocrat.
posted by isopraxis at 2:12 PM on February 22, 2007 [4 favorites]
This spells pure profit if you are a fat, white middle-aged plutocrat.....named Dick.
posted by wah at 2:25 PM on February 22, 2007
posted by wah at 2:25 PM on February 22, 2007
But seriously though, the really sad part about this is the people making the most money off this debacle will be funding "think tanks" for a whole 'nother generation.
Like this one did to ours.
posted by wah at 2:28 PM on February 22, 2007
Like this one did to ours.
posted by wah at 2:28 PM on February 22, 2007
correlation doesn't equal causality: Is very true, but it can point you in the right direction, correlation may occur because of events spurring similar reactions in different areas. If the US government is reluctant to study and/or publish findings on the broader effects of the Iraq war then it has few legs to stand on and complain when other people do their work for them.
posted by edgeways at 2:30 PM on February 22, 2007
posted by edgeways at 2:30 PM on February 22, 2007
A slight derail: I viewed the film "The Ground Truth" last night. The term "powerful" is thrown around a lot when describing movies. This one really was, I was moved all over the place.
One soldier who returned missing a limb met a friend who wondered what had happened to him. When the soldier replied to his friend that he had been in the Iraq war, the friend asked "Is that still going on?"
posted by telstar at 2:33 PM on February 22, 2007
One soldier who returned missing a limb met a friend who wondered what had happened to him. When the soldier replied to his friend that he had been in the Iraq war, the friend asked "Is that still going on?"
posted by telstar at 2:33 PM on February 22, 2007
The war has inspired more terrorists here at home.
No one needs to "follow us home", if we stay on the same course, the terrorists ™ will grow here.
posted by wah at 2:59 PM on February 22, 2007
No one needs to "follow us home", if we stay on the same course, the terrorists ™ will grow here.
posted by wah at 2:59 PM on February 22, 2007
Peter Bergen was on Washington Journal, yesterday February 21 (I think!).
One interesting point he made was that he had studied the rumor that the CIA funded Osama and concluded that for all its nefarity did not fund Osama (they had no idea who he was at the time of the Afghan war with Russia) and he had so much Saudi and personal money coming in that he didn't need U.S. assistance...
posted by stratastar at 3:55 PM on February 22, 2007
One interesting point he made was that he had studied the rumor that the CIA funded Osama and concluded that for all its nefarity did not fund Osama (they had no idea who he was at the time of the Afghan war with Russia) and he had so much Saudi and personal money coming in that he didn't need U.S. assistance...
posted by stratastar at 3:55 PM on February 22, 2007
correlation doesn't equal causality*
*except when it's telling you something you want to hear
Correlation doesn't equal causality. However, causality implies correlation. This means lack of correlation means lack of causality.
Now:
1. this trillion-dollar war was sold to us as a tactic to reduce terrorism.
2. in fact, terrorism has gone up substantially since the war.
3. therefore this war has been ineffective at reducing terrorism.
Do you have a problem with this reasoning? (Of course, you could claim that terrorism would have increased 14 times if it wasn't for the war in Iraq but you'd really have to have cojones to pull that off.
posted by lupus_yonderboy at 4:15 PM on February 22, 2007 [2 favorites]
*except when it's telling you something you want to hear
Correlation doesn't equal causality. However, causality implies correlation. This means lack of correlation means lack of causality.
Now:
1. this trillion-dollar war was sold to us as a tactic to reduce terrorism.
2. in fact, terrorism has gone up substantially since the war.
3. therefore this war has been ineffective at reducing terrorism.
Do you have a problem with this reasoning? (Of course, you could claim that terrorism would have increased 14 times if it wasn't for the war in Iraq but you'd really have to have cojones to pull that off.
posted by lupus_yonderboy at 4:15 PM on February 22, 2007 [2 favorites]
)
posted by lupus_yonderboy at 4:16 PM on February 22, 2007
posted by lupus_yonderboy at 4:16 PM on February 22, 2007
It is clear that terrorism has increased, but this paper was a bit thin on some of the numbers. From the second page:
But the most direct test of The Iraq Effect--whether the United States and its allies have suffered more jihadist terrorism after the invasion than before--shows that the rate of jihadist attacks on Western interests and citizens around the world (outside of Afghanistan and Iraq) has risen by a quarter, from 7.2 to 9 a year.
I seriously doubt that number would survive a t-test.
Also, that RAND database is amazing.
posted by thrako at 4:39 PM on February 22, 2007
But the most direct test of The Iraq Effect--whether the United States and its allies have suffered more jihadist terrorism after the invasion than before--shows that the rate of jihadist attacks on Western interests and citizens around the world (outside of Afghanistan and Iraq) has risen by a quarter, from 7.2 to 9 a year.
I seriously doubt that number would survive a t-test.
Also, that RAND database is amazing.
posted by thrako at 4:39 PM on February 22, 2007
I agree with thranko that these numbers aren't quite enough to prove the claim, "The war in Iraq has increased terrorism." However, this information is more than enough to disprove the claim, "The war in Iraq has decreased terrorism."
posted by lupus_yonderboy at 5:54 PM on February 22, 2007
posted by lupus_yonderboy at 5:54 PM on February 22, 2007
Finally: the link between the War in Iraq and the War on Terror is revealed.
posted by psmealey at 6:20 PM on February 22, 2007
posted by psmealey at 6:20 PM on February 22, 2007
The link between "The War On Terror" and the War In Iraq is that the War In Iraq was the moment you lost the War On Terror.
TBH Simply naming it "The War On Terror" was a pretty bad start to begin with.
posted by Artw at 10:38 PM on February 22, 2007
TBH Simply naming it "The War On Terror" was a pretty bad start to begin with.
posted by Artw at 10:38 PM on February 22, 2007
Starting the Iraq war and destabilizing the Middle East over terrorism is like getting chemotherapy for skin cancer.
posted by any major dude at 11:12 PM on February 22, 2007
posted by any major dude at 11:12 PM on February 22, 2007
one of the things that i have always had trouble getting my head around was the extent to which i was lied to in regards to the lead up to the war. there were so many lies, told so often, by so many that it became, for me, impossible to refute them all.
mother jones has this link
which covers a decade of lies and puts it all in a nice neat package so that i can 'see' the big picture again.
it would seem that this administration has taken to heart that a lie told often enough will be believed.
the vote on the patriot act was 98 -1 with all current major presidential candidates voting in favor. and meanwhile jose padilla remains incarcerated having been found guilty of nothing.
what hope is there for america? see
posted by altman at 2:48 AM on February 23, 2007
mother jones has this link
which covers a decade of lies and puts it all in a nice neat package so that i can 'see' the big picture again.
it would seem that this administration has taken to heart that a lie told often enough will be believed.
the vote on the patriot act was 98 -1 with all current major presidential candidates voting in favor. and meanwhile jose padilla remains incarcerated having been found guilty of nothing.
what hope is there for america? see
posted by altman at 2:48 AM on February 23, 2007
support the troops because they're fighting for your freedom
posted by matteo at 3:34 AM on February 23, 2007
posted by matteo at 3:34 AM on February 23, 2007
Her we go again US intelligence on Iran does not stand up, say Vienna sources.
posted by adamvasco at 4:03 AM on February 23, 2007
posted by adamvasco at 4:03 AM on February 23, 2007
Ashcroft to Nichols: Keep your mouth shut, or we might get to the bottom of this.
posted by Balisong at 4:39 AM on February 23, 2007
posted by Balisong at 4:39 AM on February 23, 2007
Simply naming it 'The War On Terror' was a pretty bad start to begin with.
It's an example of the oversimplification of the issues that the Bush administration has always demonstrated. They talk like there's a unified block of "evildoers," like we're in a James Bond movie, without distinguishing between different groups with wildly differing agendas.
They also only address the supply side; it's like they believe there is a finite number of terrorists, and we can win the war by killing all the terrorists. There's no discussion of the demand side; no examination of the reasons behind terrorist actions.
posted by kirkaracha at 5:16 AM on February 23, 2007
There's no discussion of the demand side; no examination of the reasons behind terrorist actions.
Yea there was. They hate us for our freedoms. Logically, if we take those freedoms away...
posted by wah at 7:13 AM on February 23, 2007
Yea there was. They hate us for our freedoms. Logically, if we take those freedoms away...
posted by wah at 7:13 AM on February 23, 2007
The vice president slinks home from a disastrous trip where a failed assassination attempt was only the loudest proof that his war policies have emboldened al-Qaida and the Taliban.
posted by homunculus at 10:04 PM on February 28, 2007
posted by homunculus at 10:04 PM on February 28, 2007
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