UK Goes To Polls In EU Referendum
June 22, 2016 5:58 PM   Subscribe

The day is finally here, the UK decides. BBC: "Britain is set to go to the polls in an historic referendum on whether the country should remain a member of the European Union or leave. Polling stations are open between 07:00 BST and 22:00 BST. An estimated 46,499,537 people are entitled to take part in the vote - a record number for a UK election. It is only the third nationwide referendum in UK history and comes after a four-month battle for votes between the Leave and Remain campaigns. In common with other broadcasters, the BBC is limited in what it can report while polls are open but you can follow the results as they come in across the BBC after polls close on Thursday evening." posted by marienbad (2812 comments total) 97 users marked this as a favorite
 
John Oliver's Last Week Tonight on Brexit (jump straight to the song)

Which you couldn't see in on TV the UK because it was deemed insufficiently balanced to air until after the election.
posted by zachlipton at 6:04 PM on June 22, 2016 [15 favorites]


I just want to tell you all good luck. We're all counting on you.

No, really. I mean it this time. Don't fuck this up.
posted by schmod at 6:08 PM on June 22, 2016 [51 favorites]


Oh it's Brexit vote tonight and I'm feeling right/ possible economic suicide is the reason to get good and tight/
posted by The Whelk at 6:10 PM on June 22, 2016 [5 favorites]


Maybe I should just drink enough tonight I black out for all of tomorrow.
posted by Artw at 6:11 PM on June 22, 2016 [4 favorites]


I really hope that the vote favors "Bremain!"

Seriously, I do.
posted by Charles_Swan at 6:17 PM on June 22, 2016 [6 favorites]


I've had the interesting experience of being British but watching the whole debate from the other side of the Atlantic. The debate so far hasn't exactly inspired patriotism on my part. The leave side seem to inhabit a different world from me - so I find myself siding with politicians I'd vote against any day of the week.
posted by ElliotH at 6:17 PM on June 22, 2016 [6 favorites]


It's funny how almost no one comes off looking good in this thing, except for Jo Cox (RIP), Nicola Sturgeon and a few others. David Cameron looks pathetically weak, Boris Johnson and Michael Gove dangerous opportunists.
posted by My Dad at 6:20 PM on June 22, 2016 [3 favorites]


And if it happens doesn't Scotland then Scotleave and rejoin the EU? If this kind of thing gets popular it's gonna be Mr. Lee's Greater Hong Kong from Snow Crash...
posted by save alive nothing that breatheth at 6:22 PM on June 22, 2016 [27 favorites]


How late do we have to stay up to get some returns on this thing? The US election has been rough on me.
posted by vrakatar at 6:28 PM on June 22, 2016 [1 favorite]


About 24 hours at least. Start making coffee now, I guess.
posted by phooky at 6:29 PM on June 22, 2016 [3 favorites]


Well at least this will give all the alternative history fiction authors something to write about. Pick whichever future where we get dirigibles guys, I want to be in the timeline that gets dirigibles this time.
posted by XMLicious at 6:30 PM on June 22, 2016 [48 favorites]


The only thing certain about this referendum is the sheer misjudgement of Cameron in calling it. More arrogant than Randolph Churchill's resignation, Cameron could not have marred his legacy worse with an unforced blunder. Indeed, this referendum is his legacy. Everything else about him will soon be forgotten but this: he ripped a hole in the established politics of the UK so that he could gain a few more votes, and nobody knows how big that hole is going to get.

Fool. Fool. Fool.
posted by Emma May Smith at 6:33 PM on June 22, 2016 [86 favorites]


"How late do we have to stay up to get some returns on this thing?"

Based on past British poll-watching experience, you'll get some fairly robust early returns by around 10 p.m. NYC time and have a good idea of how it will all shake out by midnight NYC time unless it is agonizingly, recount-requiringly close. (Like hanging-chad close, not a normal amount of nail-biting close.) I thiiiiiink the polls in the UK start closing at close-of-business in NYC but it usually takes several hours for results to start reporting.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 6:33 PM on June 22, 2016 [1 favorite]


It's terrifying. All the major economists and business leaders, the leaders of the two major parties, personalities ranging from Jeremy Clarkson to Billy Bragg are for Remain. About half the voters are responding with "well, fuck 'em". That is emphatically not healthy for a society with pretensions to democracy.

My hope is that whatever happens, it prompts some soul searching in London and Brussels. Why is so much of the population so disaffected? Is it a good idea to be pushing ahead with further integration when the EU has been found lacking in its handling of the economic and immigration crises? How do we best ensure that actions of the EU are broadly seen as democratic and legitimate, regardless of support?

I seriously doubt such soul searching will happen, and I don't honestly know which would be worse. Leave being followed by an explosion of similar sentiments across the continent or remain not being followed up with reforms in both the UK and EU to try and address the fact that the "Fuck everything and everyone" vote is creeping close to a majority in some places.
posted by Grimgrin at 6:40 PM on June 22, 2016 [16 favorites]


I'm old enough that when I was shipped off to boarding school in England, the debate was very much about joining the European community,(after the fact) and whether the UK would switch to the euro. It was after the last referendum, which iirc passed overwhelmingly to stay in the union. Even with the reading I've done, I don't feel educated enough to have a firm opinion, but my gut instinct is to go with Jo Cox and hope that the UK stays in the EU.
posted by SecretAgentSockpuppet at 6:40 PM on June 22, 2016



Timings: How the evening is likely to unfold (all times BST)
All timings are approximate and may be subject to change

00:30 – Results begin to be reported for a small number of councils
02:00 – First big wave of results with 22 councils expected around this time
04:00 – The largest wave of results with 88 councils expected to report
06:00 – Any clear winner likely reported by now over media channels
07:00 – Final (more rural) areas report
08:00 - 09:00 – Official result will be called in Manchester, “around breakfast time”, according to the electoral commission

Stolen from a UBS note.
posted by JPD at 6:41 PM on June 22, 2016 [4 favorites]


[BST is UTC+1]
posted by indubitable at 6:45 PM on June 22, 2016


Everything else about him will soon be forgotten

I can think of one other thing that will be remembered.
posted by aaronetc at 6:50 PM on June 22, 2016 [62 favorites]


No, no, no, the line is "Smoke me a kipper, I'll be back for breakfast." Not Brexit, breakfast. Leaving the EU won't bring Ace Rimmer back.
posted by ckape at 6:57 PM on June 22, 2016 [19 favorites]


I seriously doubt such soul searching will happen, and I don't honestly know which would be worse. Leave being followed by an explosion of similar sentiments across the continent or remain not being followed up with reforms in both the UK and EU to try and address the fact that the "Fuck everything and everyone" vote is creeping close to a majority in some places.

I swear to god people would vote "WW3 for Europe" if they were promised it would get rid of immigrants.
posted by Talez at 7:00 PM on June 22, 2016 [32 favorites]


My hope is that whatever happens, it prompts some soul searching in London and Brussels. Why is so much of the population so disaffected?

The only chance there's going to be that soul searching is if "Leave" wins.
posted by 3urypteris at 7:09 PM on June 22, 2016 [1 favorite]


Everything else about him will soon be forgotten but this

the pigfucking comes to mind
posted by poffin boffin at 7:23 PM on June 22, 2016 [60 favorites]


It has been said elsewhere in this thread but bears repeating,

Dear The UK

Don't fuck this up.

Sincerely
Us.
posted by prismatic7 at 7:27 PM on June 22, 2016


Jonathan Freedland This is why we must remain: Here's My Final Plea

The single most important quote from this piece:

Peace and war

This is the big one. For all its flaws, it’s worth remembering what the EU was created for and what it has achieved. It took a continent that for a thousand years had been soaked in blood and aimed to bind those perennially warring nations into a structure that would allow war no more. And in that noble endeavour it has succeeded.

For 70 years, the nations of Europe have stopped murdering each other – a 70-year exception to a millennium-long rule. The EU – clumsy and blundering and bureaucratic though it can be – has replaced armed conflict that killed millions with trade and negotiation. If Britain leaves, the likelihood is great that the EU will unravel.

And, once it’s gone, history suggests Europe will become the dark continent once more. We know what European nations, without the restraint of the EU, can do to each other: look at the break-up of Yugoslavia 20 years ago, look at Russia and Ukraine today.

A Brexit vote will imperil an institution that has kept the peace for three generations. Don’t let’s be the generation that wrecked it.

posted by lalochezia at 7:28 PM on June 22, 2016 [44 favorites]


How brave is Parliament? I keep seeing rumors and stories of how they'll block Brexit (with a super-majority of MPs) if the vote goes badly tomorrow. How big would the fallout be? Riots? Massive crisis involving governmental legitimacy?
posted by honestcoyote at 7:35 PM on June 22, 2016 [1 favorite]


Further evidence that capitalist integration and the expansion of markets is a force for peace.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 7:37 PM on June 22, 2016 [1 favorite]


On the Tea Party contingent of my FB feed, this lovely cartoon has been making the rounds, making plain the artists feeling on the Brexit issue.
posted by dr_dank at 7:42 PM on June 22, 2016 [2 favorites]


What a time not to have any scotch.
posted by Artw at 7:43 PM on June 22, 2016 [8 favorites]


Best of luck to ya', UK. I hope it goes well for you (and for us all).
posted by codacorolla at 7:49 PM on June 22, 2016


David Allen Green has pointed out in the FT that the referendum is not in fact legally binding.

The relevant legislation did not provide for the referendum result to have any formal trigger effect. The referendum is advisory rather than mandatory. The 2011 referendum on electoral reform did have an obligation on the government to legislate in the event of a “yes” vote (the vote was “no” so this did not matter). But no such provision was included in the EU referendum legislation.

The article is very much worth a read.
posted by motty at 8:01 PM on June 22, 2016 [10 favorites]


The whole thing is baffling. A bunch of shouty racists trying to force a country to commit economic suicide.
posted by His thoughts were red thoughts at 8:08 PM on June 22, 2016 [26 favorites]


"If this kind of thing gets popular it's gonna be Mr. Lee's Greater Hong Kong from Snow Crash..."

... only without radioactive/RTG-powered sentry dogs, suitcase-sized chain/rail-guns, sexually immature male hackers and an imploding United State of Ameri-

Oh. I see.
posted by danhon at 8:17 PM on June 22, 2016 [9 favorites]



A Brexit vote will imperil an institution that has kept the peace for three generations. Don’t let’s be the generation that wrecked it.


No, what imperiled the institution is the idea that it's mission should be "ever-closer union."

Its mission should be "close enough to keep peace along the Rhine, but not so close that things like Greece happen." Reached that point around 1999? Great. Stay there. No need for any closer harmonization or transfer of authority to Brussels.
posted by ocschwar at 8:20 PM on June 22, 2016 [3 favorites]


It seems very weird to this (non-california) American to put such a giant policy change up to a popular vote.
posted by octothorpe at 8:30 PM on June 22, 2016 [1 favorite]


Julian Assange backs Brexit
posted by L.P. Hatecraft at 8:35 PM on June 22, 2016


Can we please start ignoring Julian Assange's opinon on everything?
posted by missmerrymack at 8:43 PM on June 22, 2016 [76 favorites]


If Brexit wins out, will there be any chance of Breturn further down the line?
posted by indubitable at 8:48 PM on June 22, 2016 [2 favorites]


Why I am voting Leave, by Professor Alan Johnson


And for once, do read the comments.
posted by ocschwar at 8:52 PM on June 22, 2016 [18 favorites]


This is the first time in all my years as a disenfranchised expat that I really regret that I can't vote in my native country.

Meet the new PM, same as the old PM, living in the U.S., I can't say I cared that much.

But this, stay or leave, it's a historical vote and it pains me that I can't participate.
posted by madajb at 10:10 PM on June 22, 2016 [1 favorite]


Seconding the future stuffed with dirigibles.

And also the neologism "Bremain." Good luck & co!
posted by notyou at 10:17 PM on June 22, 2016


UK Polling Report on Eve-of-Referendum polling:

TNS: REMAIN 41%, LEAVE 43%, Undecided or won’t vote 16%.
SurveyMonkey: REMAIN 50%, LEAVE 47%
Qriously: REMAIN 37%, LEAVE 51, Don’t know 12%
ComRes: REMAIN 54%, LEAVE 46%
YouGov: REMAIN 51%, LEAVE 49%
posted by TheophileEscargot at 10:25 PM on June 22, 2016 [1 favorite]


I am an immigrant to the UK (though currently an expat in Istanbul - get your head around that). Of course I have been told I am not one of *those* immigrants - I'm white, I don't 'speak funny' and we have the UK trump card of my husband being a member of the armed forces. No matter how this vote goes, we can go back and live in the UK.

But if the vote goes leave I am not sure I want to. Part of the reason we moved to the UK is because we wanted to be part of Europe. We wanted to be able to travel more easily to Europe, be part of its culture. But that is not why I don't want to go back if Leave wins. I don't want to go back because I will have to face that the UK has become a country of bigots and conspiracy theorists (the whole meme about taking pens to the polling booth because MI5 is going to try and rig the election result. I mean, what?) where the majority of the population will pay more credence to tabloid headlines and lies on facebook than experts - you know, people who actually know what they are talking about. Where rabid racism is excused with confused claims about 'sovereignty', and actually thinking about an issue is considered less important than 'what's in my heart'. That is not a country I want to live in, that is not a country I want to raise my child in. No amount of natural beauty, fascinating history and being able to speak the language will make up for that.

Though if vote Leave gets through the pound will most likely dive and we will only be able to afford to live in the UK anyway :(
posted by Megami at 10:28 PM on June 22, 2016 [16 favorites]


Would like to say that at least after today, the horrible campaign will be over. But whatever the result, the aftermath is likely to be horribler.

Social classes AB and graduates are overwhelmingly for Remain. Social classes C2, C3 and GCSE-only people are overwhelmingly for Leave. If Remain wins, there will be a festival of gloating about the great victory over the stupid, racist losers of the working class. The EU will star working through its backlog of unpopular acts (like budget increases) that it's suspended for the campaign. It will set in stone the idea that Labour party and the left are the enemies of the working class, and only UKIP and the populist right are on their side.

If Leave wins, at least in the short term the markets will throw a tantrum.

Buckle up, it's going to be a rough ride...
posted by TheophileEscargot at 10:36 PM on June 22, 2016 [29 favorites]


A Guardian columnist travels around Britain (Wales and England) to conduct man-on-the-street interview about the referendum. It's depressing, really, since so much of the Leave support seems to come from marginalized people—the low paid, the out of work, and so on—who are obviously doing worse since the crash. It's almost as though it's a referendum on austerity... but people against austerity are voting the wrong way.
posted by My Dad at 10:57 PM on June 22, 2016 [7 favorites]


Or what TheophileEscargot said. Nice find, that link.
posted by My Dad at 10:58 PM on June 22, 2016 [1 favorite]


the whole meme about taking pens to the polling booth because MI5 is going to try and rig the election result

I mean, if they're rigging it in favor of staying...
posted by iffthen at 11:06 PM on June 22, 2016


One of my favourite memories of the past year is a damp, dark, cold London evening, getting on the number 38 from Angel back to Holborn where I lived at the time. In the dark, going to the upper deck and feeling like I'd walked into another world. Because there were rows and rows of brillliantly colourful Roma women with bundles of flowers to sell in the West End, all of them laughing and chatting and moving around the upper deck. The vibrancy was amazing.

They're precisely the kind of immigrants that Brexiters most want to stop as I imagine few of them were sober hardworking types like the stereotypical plumber or university student, and probably they were not unknown to the law. But it was really magical and thinking of it now brings home to me what I've missed in the dismal Remain campaign: there's an idea of Europe which the EU embodies only very imperfectly, certainly for Brits, but wouldn't it be nice if we could push to make it more real? Instead, the Remain campaign started with trying to gouge more concessions out of the EU and since then all the talk on the Remain side has been about the what's in it for me and my bank account.

Anyway, barring flash floods or other disaster, my proxy vote will soon be cast, a firm Remain.
posted by tavegyl at 11:11 PM on June 22, 2016 [6 favorites]


If Remain wins, there will be a festival of gloating about the great victory over the stupid, racist losers of the working class.

I would say "sigh of relief" rather than festival of gloating. And if Brexit comes to be then much weeping at the sheer lack of rational thought that goes into making far-reaching political decisions. I've convinced three people personally that Remain is a better bet but every other person I know at work and in my immediate family is for Exit.

Just terrified that "gut" will trump "brain" today. My alarm is set for 5am Friday morning to get the results first thing.
posted by longbaugh at 11:13 PM on June 22, 2016 [5 favorites]


The campaign went from disgusting to national tragedy. I hope the result ends the bigotry. I already know it won't, but hopefully the racists will be humbled back into the shadows.
posted by adept256 at 11:42 PM on June 22, 2016 [2 favorites]


Well here is hoping it isn't the nail biter that the Quebec '95 referendum was.
posted by Mitheral at 11:45 PM on June 22, 2016


Under the melancholic but prickly Corbyn the Labour Party has allowed the whole thing to be about nothing other than immigration and 'the economy' (that fictional version of the concept that consists of nothing but finding new vocabulary to express simply 'what's good for the profits of business is good for the people').

It's not unexpected, since the poor man has opposed the EU his entire life and would have voted Brexit up till he became leader of the party.

There were plenty of socialist debates to be had about Brexit, e.g. from yesterday The Left and the EU: Why Cling to This Reactionary Institution?, but you wouldn't know it from Corbyn, who clearly did a deal in the interests of 'unity' within a parliamentary party that is going to stage a coup against him within months.

Well here is hoping it isn't the nail biter


All the prediction markets, and the city of London markets and traders, have already assumed a definite Remain vote. The prediction markets got it right where the polls didn't on Scotland and the last UK election. It may not even be close in the end.
posted by Coda Tronca at 11:54 PM on June 22, 2016 [2 favorites]


Mrs Angry of Broken Barnet posts on the Remain side, but there's also an interesting comment by someone who's torn about which way to vote.
posted by paduasoy at 12:38 AM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


I've got next to nothing to say about the issues that hasn't already been said a million times on here and elsewhere, so I might as well just relate a few stories about what's going on locally.

Last night, I was driving home from work following a dirty white van plastered badly with "VOTE LEAVE" and "INDEPENDENCE DAY". The bloke in it had a megaphone and was haranguing people in the street about immigration and foreigners. When he passed a group of female Muslim students in hijabs outside the local college, he started shouting at them to "go home."

This morning, I got into work to the sounds of an office debate on - you guessed it - the EU referendum. "We need to leave because we don't get a vote in who runs the EU," someone said. I said, we do, we have European Parliament elections every five years, even Farage is in the European Parliament. "No, we don't, I've never seen one or had a vote in one, so it's not true." When you are literally trying to argue about something that's not a matter of opinion, it's an actual fact that someone literally refuses to believe, you can't argue any more.

The conversation then turned to immigrants. I'd given up by this point and decided to get on with some work, so I was just listening. "I'm a mum and I'm concerned for the safety of my kids with all these immigrants coming in, especially the Turks." Parents are the worst in this kind of debate - if you don't have kids, there's literally no point even engaging with them, because "you haven't got kids so you don't have a right to say anything".

The level of the debate has been rock bottom. The level of ignorance - even about basic uncontroversial facts like the fact that the European Parliament is elected - is sky high. The Brexit campaigners are taking on the air of conspiracy theorists, convinced that the array of business leaders, politicians of all shades, trade unionists, scientists, economists and public figures are some sort of grand Euro-conspiracy to keep this great nation down.

I don't work in Batley and Spen, I work in a nearby small, overwhelmingly white northern town where it's still about 1983, so the tone of the "debate" here reflects that. But I do vote in Batley and Spen, and waiting outside the polling station this morning for polls to open there was a small group of us. No-one said which way they were going to vote, because that's not the done thing outside the polling station, but everyone was in agreement that the whole thing had been a huge mistake, that the "debate" has been sewer-level stuff, that the death of Jo Cox was pretty much directly related to the heightened political and racial tensions stirred up by the referendum, and that we'd all be glad when it was all over and we hoped that the community could start to rebuild.

I'll be glad when this is all over and there's a vote for 'remain.' I'm confident that there'll be a vote for 'remain'. But once this is over, the ignorant racists who have been stirring up hatred and tension and anger in our community and elsewhere shouldn't be allowed to crawl back into their sewers. They should be kept out, forced to admit that they were wrong, and taken out of the public sphere altogether. Cameron has to go, whatever the result - it's on his watch that this whole ridiculous referendum took place and he has literal blood on his hands for being weak and calling it in the first place, just to avoid making a decision that would make him internally unpopular in his party.

The whole thing has been utterly unedifying and has taken this country back several years in terms of community relations and race and social cohesion. That's damage that's repairable, but inexcusable.
posted by winterhill at 12:47 AM on June 23, 2016 [67 favorites]


A Nightmare Before Brexit

Say Brexit breaks it.
Boris’ll fix it?
Will he, bollox.
posted by rory at 12:50 AM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]


If Leave wins, at least in the short term the markets will throw a tantrum.

And the government will go into crisis. And anti immigrant sentiment will soar. And Boris Johnson will likely become prime minister. And austerity will be doubled down on. And Scotland may seek a second indyref.

But let's really worry about potential gloating?
posted by howfar at 12:54 AM on June 23, 2016 [12 favorites]


Awful campaigning for this referendum, especially by the Leave campaigns who have enthusiastically and shamelessly stoked conspiracy theory and racism-based politics. The Remain campaigns have exaggerated and obfuscated but have not descended to the outright constant lying of the Leave campaign. Of course, most Leave and Remain supporters are decent people but it's scary how much the people running the Leave campaigns have gotten away with, aided by the Europhobic rightwing newspapers.

I think Cameron has performed horribly poorly in setting the terms of the election, campaigning and national leadership here but I don't fault him on calling the referendum. I think if he hadn't, a referendum called by another Tory Prime Minister, a highly Eurosceptic one, would have happened if not this year then some year soon. Especially given the weakness of Labour.

There needs to be leadership on national healing after the result, whatever it is. I wish we could borrow Ruth Davidson from Scotland for the UK Prime Ministership, but she's busy with repairing Unionism in Scotland.
posted by Bwithh at 1:13 AM on June 23, 2016


I think Cameron has performed horribly poorly in setting the terms of the election, campaigning and national leadership here

FTFY.

AIf Britain votes to exit, he is being handed a blank slate to do whatever the Tories really want to do. And if racist assholes think voting for exit will miraculously boot eastern Europeans out of pubsjobs while the Tories hold power, they are doomed to be disappointed.
posted by Autumn Leaf at 1:32 AM on June 23, 2016


I'm watching with anxiety from across the Irish Sea.

Of course the decision is up to the voters. If I could be sure that they were making it on the basis of reliable information, I'd be a lot happier. But I've been watching the British press coverage since I was a teenager, back when the UK and Ireland were part of the enlargement that brought the EEC from six members to nine, and in those more than forty years I don't think the British press has ever reported fairly on the EEC , EC or EU. There has always been a constant trickle of stories ridiculing European institutions, while genuine benefits have been ignored.

The Euromyths Index gives an idea of the range of stories the British press have come with, and the doomed efforts by the European Commission to correct the worst mistakes.

I really despise Boris Johnson over this: he is actually very familiar with the EU institutions, but in his time as European correspondent for the Daily Telegraph he specialized in these Euromyth kind of stories:
The Brussels Years: The making of Brexit Boris.

So much of the time, when the papers sneer about rules and regulations, they ignore the fact that regulating water quality, air quality and food production are improving the quality of life for everyone.
posted by Azara at 1:35 AM on June 23, 2016 [15 favorites]


I don't know what's going to happen today, but I do think it's dangerous to conflate leaders with followers; to imagine that all people considering a "leave" vote are bigots and racists. Which is to say, non-persons, whose interests and livelihoods we can completely disregard due to their (presumably) being horrible people and whose demographic and cultural replacement we can look forward to. That's no way to form any kind of political coalition against austerity, and a good way to alienate the working classes entirely from (what used to be) the left. As John Harris writes this morning in the Guardian:
Far too much political coverage has only one way of framing its subject: riding the battlebuses, fixating on the polls, and being so obsessed with each side’s supposed figureheads that the whole thing starts to look like gladiatorial sport (witness Tuesday’s utterly absurd debate in that well-known home of meaningful discourse, Wembley Arena). In turn, in the wider world, that feeds into a tendency to conflate parties and campaigns with the people who vote for them. The result: people who want out are perceived as being made from the same stuff as the nastier elements of the leave campaign, endlessly ready to be “whipped up” into a steaming rage, and therefore worthy of the same mixture of bafflement and contempt.
posted by Sonny Jim at 1:40 AM on June 23, 2016 [14 favorites]


personalities ranging from Jeremy Clarkson to Billy Bragg are for Remain

I really wish you hadn't said that. I was pretty solid, but the opportunity of telling both Clarkson and Bragg to fuck off with a single vote... OK, I might be destroying my children's economic future, but I've got to think seriously about an opportunity like that.
posted by Segundus at 2:00 AM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


octothorpe: "It seems very weird to this (non-california) American to put such a giant policy change up to a popular vote."

That's very much the way many European politicians think and is part of the problem: Why leave something as important as democracy to the people.
posted by chavenet at 2:05 AM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]


"Great Britain has lost an Empire and has not yet found a role." (Dean Acheson, former US Secretary of State, 1962)

Geoffrey Wheatcroft:
No doubt, Cameron thought that he would repeat that trick, and heal the wounds of his own party. Instead, he set off a bitter feud within its ranks. But there was more to his mistake than merely failing to foresee that the Brexit wing of the Tories would comprise nearly half his MPs, and a noisy faction of his cabinet, or the degree to which the latest tragic migrant crisis would highlight existing fears about immigration. Cameron unleashed forces of which he had not been properly aware.

Something far deeper is at stake in this week’s vote. A wave of resentment against the elites is sweeping Europe, and in Britain this summer, as John Harris has written, we have seen a working-class revolt. The referendum is a form of displacement activity. It’s about something other – or much more – than what it is supposed to be about.

Those forces, for which Euroscepticism is a wholly inadequate word, range from crude racism and nativist dislike of immigrants, to humble patriotism and yearning for a maybe imaginary lost age. The referendum turns not so much on the national interest as on a national idea.

Grauniad long read

posted by Mister Bijou at 2:07 AM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


to imagine that all people considering a "leave" vote are bigots and racists

Just, like, a lot of them? There's this frequent insistence from Harris and others that people on "the left" don't understand working class people and it's really tiresome. Like that embarrassing Emily Thornbury bullshit. And Gillian Duffy. It always comes from commentators who have no contact with ordinary people beyond vox pops every election season.
posted by threetwentytwo at 2:10 AM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]




My friend gets to vote here and I am well jealous:

https://twitter.com/GaskellsHouse/status/745864840825143296
posted by threetwentytwo at 2:14 AM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Based on past British poll-watching experience, you'll get some fairly robust early returns by around 10 p.m. NYC time and have a good idea of how it will all shake out by midnight NYC time unless it is agonizingly, recount-requiringly close. (Like hanging-chad close, not a normal amount of nail-biting close.) I thiiiiiink the polls in the UK start closing at close-of-business in NYC but it usually takes several hours for results to start reporting.

Though this time there are no exit polls; various areas will start reporting during the night, though Remain-leaning areas will report disproportionately early. The Guardian has a timeline of what to expect at various times of the night.
posted by acb at 2:19 AM on June 23, 2016


Julian Assange backs Brexit

Julian Assange is by now the George Galloway of the cyberpunk set, right down to appearances on various authoritarian states' propaganda organs.
posted by acb at 2:21 AM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]


The Euromyths Index gives an idea of the range of stories the British press have come with, and the doomed efforts by the European Commission to correct the worst mistakes.

This one, on a supposed directive to force alpine cows into nappies is a work of art as an attempt at humor by a Serious Organization; still can't decide if not quite succeeding makes it cringeworthy or sublime.
posted by Dr Dracator at 2:22 AM on June 23, 2016


Well, I voted this morning. Lets hope it’s not so close that my vote matters.
posted by pharm at 2:26 AM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


to imagine that all people considering a "leave" vote are bigots and racists

Oh no, they're not racist, they're just happy to vote for a deeply racist course of action. I completely understand this very important and meaningful distinction.
posted by Dysk at 2:29 AM on June 23, 2016 [20 favorites]


The campaign went from disgusting to national tragedy. I hope the result ends the bigotry. I already know it won't, but hopefully the racists will be humbled back into the shadows.

Alas, it's unlikely.

If Leave prevail, of course, it'll be catastrophic. Perhaps Prime Minister Boris will fudge some kind of settlement which maintains the status quo, but there will be two years of economic upheaval. Perhaps we will drop out, the pound will sink and stay down, our Tory/UKIP overlords (including Lord Farage) will gut regulations, and Britain will become a highly competitive dirty sweatshop economy and tax haven, complete with captive workforce who can't up sticks and look for better opportunities abroad.

If Remain prevail by a narrow margin (say, 53%-47%), it's a much less bad result, but still not a good one. We stay in the EU, but the kippers and xenophobes won't be shut up. Having almost won it will embolden them and they'll stay on, spoiling things and spoiling for a rematch, abetted by the right-wing tabloids. UKIP will get people into the EU Parliament and gum up the works, so they can point at it and say “see? the EU doesn't work”.

A good result would be a thrashing for Leave, and a resounding mandate. If they were beaten down to the “crazification factor” of about 27%, they'd cease to be a factor (for a while; though who knows, if the red-tops pump enough hype into the corpse, they can probably eventually reanimate it). Britain's place in the EU would be all but undisputed and secure for the foreseeable future.
posted by acb at 2:29 AM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


acb: The Guardian has a timeline of what to expect at various times of the night.

This early Guardian article is similar, but also has some interesting commentary about what early results might indicate about the national vote. For example:
If the referendum were a dead heat, we should expect Leave to be six percentage points ahead in Sunderland, winning 53% to 47%. That figure is still subject to a lot of uncertainty: in a dead heat Leave could be anywhere between one point behind and 13 points ahead. But the closer things are in Sunderland, the better things will be for Remain.
posted by Pink Frost at 2:30 AM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Oh no, they're not racist, they're just happy to vote for a deeply racist course of action. I completely understand this very important and meaningful distinction.

It's like the Simpsons FOX News motto: “Not racist, but #1 with racists”
posted by acb at 2:30 AM on June 23, 2016 [22 favorites]


John Harris has written some really great articles over this referendum. He's approached Leave voters with a lot of humanity and understanding. I recommend all Remainers read him.
posted by Emma May Smith at 2:35 AM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


If Britain votes to exit, he is being handed a blank slate to do whatever the Tories really want to do.

If the vote is for Brexit, the only thing Cameron is getting handed is his P45; his government will be done inside of a week. Of course, that just means that it'll be Boris who'll be implementing the maximal Tory agenda, so that's maybe not so comforting.
posted by strangely stunted trees at 2:40 AM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


Oh please, if we leave the EU it won't lead to war in Europe, this is just scaremongering nonsense. Vote Leave, and lets put this failed, bloated, corrupt and useless experiment behind us, an experiment which benefits the rich and powerful way more than it benefits the poor and the working class.. DOn't believe me? Look at income and wealth inequality and ho it has gone up while we have been in the EU. Look at the combined wealth (bottom 10% = £5.7 bn, top 10% = £5 tn) so when people say we get more back than we put in it is going to the rich and powerful, not the poor. We have ongoing wage stagnation, lack of housing, lack of social housing, lack of educational opportunities (yes, the politicians saying we should remain are the same ones who brought in fees for H.E. meaning poor people graduate with huge amounts of debt!), millions of British people on the dole (as has been the case since mass immigration began - people say it doesn't cause unemployment yet how come they can find jobs fro millions of immigrants and not British people? It is all about decimating and destroying the working class so we have no power, money or fucking anything), lack of access to jobs, lack of access to better jobs once you have a job, low wages, poverty, inequality...

And then the corporations are saying stay - yeah, they care so much about the welfare of the poor they may us min wage (and millions on zero hours) so you are siding with the corporations if you vote remain - do you really think they have the best interests of the poor at heart when they say this? Really?

As for immigration - people are not against it because they are racist, and it is not a case of "no immigration at all" - it is the impact it has had on peoples lives and communities, impacts not felt by middle class liberals, by the grauniad or bbc, by the tories or the luvvies who say remain, by the rich or the corporations. So please can we stop with this "leave are racist" bullshit. There are racists on both sides of this. It has had a profound and deep effect - we are living in overcrowded and cramped and congested towns and cities and it will only get worse - the rich won't be happy until the poor are living in Victorian levels of squalor and overcrowding, and then you will all wring your hands and say "who could have forseen this." Wages have stagnated while the corporations have paid out massive dividends (more punters, more stuff sold + wage stagnation = lower costs) and poor people can't get their children into the school they want, and are stuck with older kids at hom as there is nowhere for them to live.


And frankly, George Osborne says remain - have you seen how vicious this guys policies are towards the poor, the mentally ill, the sick, the disadvantaged? When he says remain, you know we should be leaving.

And to read that the politicians will veto all the things people want to happen when we vote to leave is shocking, but they must do the will of their corporate paymasters as they all want a cushy corporate job when they leave office/civil service, all waved through by the lame and ineffective ACOBA. Corporate paymasters who want us to stay.

The EU is just another part of the system, a system designed to keep the poor down and the rich at the top, it is another tool in the arsenal of systemic inequality and the maintainance of this system.

Vote Leave.
posted by marienbad at 2:50 AM on June 23, 2016 [7 favorites]


> Oh no, they're not racist, they're just happy to vote for a deeply racist course of action. I completely understand this very important and meaningful distinction.

You know when you see a thing, don't like the thing, other the thing and then judge it...

I am passionately voting remain. I cannot conceive of doing anything other, but there are valid non-racist reasons to not like the EU and to prefer not to be in it.
posted by vbfg at 2:59 AM on June 23, 2016 [10 favorites]


As for immigration - people are not against it because they are racist, and it is not a case of "no immigration at all"

But quite a few are, and for quite a few it is.

There are racists on both sides of this.

I for one would be fascinated to see your list of Remain examples.

One of the best explanations I’ve seen of why Brexit has a grip on regional England.
posted by rory at 3:04 AM on June 23, 2016 [9 favorites]


There are a lot of things to unpack in that screed marenbad, but I can't see much there that has anything to do with European membership as such.
The wealth inequality in the UK is not the result of being a member of the European Community, neither does ' ongoing wage stagnation, lack of housing, lack of social housing, lack of educational opportunities (yes, the politicians saying we should remain are the same ones who brought in fees for H.E. meaning poor people graduate with huge amounts of debt!), millions of British people on the dole (as has been the case since mass immigration began - people say it doesn't cause unemployment yet how come they can find jobs fro millions of immigrants and not British people? It is all about decimating and destroying the working class so we have no power, money or fucking anything), lack of access to jobs, lack of access to better jobs once you have a job, low wages, poverty, inequality... '

Those are all important issues that are not directly related to this referendum.

Equating unemployment with immigration is particularly disturbing and indicates a contorted understanding of worker migration to the UK. Historically West Indian and Pakistani workers were invited to the UK to serve as a low paid workforce, this again has nothing to do with Europe.

For example I know that today there are many people who have English as a second language who are working low skilled jobs such as in a warehouse, retail work, restaurant work etc. There are several reasons why this is the case:
1) They turn up to work and work hard, they are willing workers
2) The management can mess them about on their wages and rights as they don't necessarily have good English language skills to complain or understanding of their rights
3) If they kick up a fuss they can be blacklisted and genuinely unable to find work
posted by asok at 3:08 AM on June 23, 2016 [13 favorites]


There are racists on both sides of this.

I for one would be fascinated to see your list of Remain examples.


It's probably pointless to talk about who is 'A Racist', but there are plenty of politicians on the Remain side who have been queuing up to 'talk tough on immigration' and are happy to press all those buttons when it suits them.

Picking up votes by blaming immigrants for taking jobs is not exactly a new thing in mainstream political discourse. It's 48 years since Powell's 'Rivers of Blood' speech.
posted by Coda Tronca at 3:13 AM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


The only positive I've found from this horrible and tawdry campaign is the discovery of how easy it is to gain Irish citizenship in the event the UK does shoot itself in the foot today.

Might do it even if Remain wins if only to get away from the Bullingdon club debating show that political conversation has fallen to in this country.
posted by brilliantmistake at 3:15 AM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


I voted remain today. But reluctantly. Because of the way this has all been framed, if leave wins, it will be seen as a victory for racists and specifically for UKIP. That is, the greatest strategy of the Remain camp is the vileness of the Leave Camp. But apart from that, I'm not certain that Remain is the most moral or even most prudent choice.

I am persuaded that our economy would take a big hit if we left the EU, and thereby lead to further irrational austerity measures. However, I'm not convinced we couldn't ultimately recover from that hit. And hey, maybe our house prices and rents ought to be lower?

I do not think we have a moral duty to permit economic migration. The value of freedom of movement is when you move for love, or to escape oppression and war. But it's quite plausible that economic migration causes wage stagnation for the poorest people, undermines collective bargaining, and maybe even undermines the countries from which people are migrating. (Economic migration serves the interests of the cosmopolitan elite (e.g. academics like me) I don't think it undermines social services.)

I think if we had the choice, we would vote for greater democratic accountability of the EU- specifically the capacity to elect the EU commission and not be hemmed in by immutable neo-liberal treaties. I hope we get another chance one day to demand democratic reform or else we'll leave.
posted by leibniz at 3:15 AM on June 23, 2016 [7 favorites]


You know when you see a thing, don't like the thing, other the thing and then judge it...

It's so everyday it's not other at all. Since I'm white and my spoken English is unaccented (a slight local twinge perhaps) I was constantly witness to "fucking immigrants" rants from colleagues in both retail and at a management consultancy firm. If and when I pointed out that I was also an immigrant, they'd concede that I was "one of the good ones" and "they didn't mean people like ME" and sometimes even "nah, it's these turks and Indians". It was clear that every time the word "immigrant" was uttered - and it was always with utter derision - it was intended and taken to mean people who weren't white.
posted by Dysk at 3:16 AM on June 23, 2016 [18 favorites]


My only reaction to Marienbad and other Lexiters (who are not entirely devoid of valid points!) is - "ok, but what on earth do you think will happen if Leave win?"
posted by ominous_paws at 3:23 AM on June 23, 2016 [10 favorites]


It's so everyday it's not other at all.

Exactly. Much as the leave campaign loves to push the mighty elites line, remain voters do actually know these people: They are parents, family members, co-workers, friends. And a lot of them are straight up racist when they think they're in good company.
posted by threetwentytwo at 3:25 AM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


If and when I pointed out that I was also an immigrant, they'd concede that I was "one of the good ones" and "they didn't mean people like ME" and sometimes even "nah, it's these turks and Indians". It was clear that every time the word "immigrant" was uttered - and it was always with utter derision - it was intended and taken to mean people who weren't white.

I had very similar experiences with (some) people in the UK. And I'd suspect that the majority of British people who have problems with immigrants are like that. But I don't think that's the whole story.

For example you've got even Farage saying he wants more Indian immigration compared to European (based around the shared English language and usage of the common law). Then at another extreme you've got people who really don't want any immigrants, including English-speaking white people (see some of the comments here, for example).

So yeah, plenty of racism. But not just that. There's some who are arguing against immigration based on genuine belief that their jobs are threatened or that the UK's too crowded [to be clear before I go to bed: I strongly disagree with them, and the political response to those beliefs has already cost me my ability to live and work in the UK].
posted by Pink Frost at 3:30 AM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


20 Reasons you should vote to leave the European Union from the Telegraph.

Some absolute howlers:
- We could have proper vacuum cleaners
- We could have blue passports again
- No more stupid recycling bins
- We could have proper light bulbs again

I seriously had to check I wasn't reading The Onion. The only one I agree with:
- British MEPs would be sacked

Yes I think they should be sacked. But sacked in that people should be voting for MEPs that would properly do their jobs. MEPs are full of UKIPers and Leave Tories, of course they're going to do a piss poor job of representing Britain in the EU, their main goal is to obstruct and dismantle the very idea of it.
posted by like_neon at 3:32 AM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]


4) They are not unionised

There is some evidence that wage suppression has resulted in areas and job types that have a high percentage of migrant workers. This is an issue for upholding workers' rights and minimum wage legislation.

leibniz - I do not think we have a moral duty to permit economic migration.

To give but one example, the NHS has been heavily reliant on migrant workers pretty much since it's conception. There are a good percentage of people in the UK who owe their lives to migrant workers.

I think people should be able to move about the planet as easily as money does, figuratively speaking. If we value people below money that is a sad indictment of 21st century humanity.
posted by asok at 3:33 AM on June 23, 2016 [9 favorites]


I have a lot of compassion for people who are voting leave as a reaction to de-industrialization and the financialization of the British economy. I think they've got cause and effect totally wrong, but I get where they are approaching the issue from. The rest of the leave voters are mostly racists and conspiracy theorists.

Which isn't too say the EU as an institution doesn't have problems. Far too bureaucratic and removed from the constituents - leads too much management of the elites.
posted by JPD at 3:33 AM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


By 8:30 this morning, I'd already been stopped in the street by a "Remain" campaigner anxious to give me one of her "I'm In" stickers and treated to a London cabbie's lengthy explanation of why he was voting "Leave". The "Remain" campaigner was urging everyone she stopped to recruit at least three of their own friends to the cause.

There was only one other voter in my local polling station when I stopped in there to vote "Remain" at about 11:15am, but I dare say it'll get much busier as the day wears on. I might nip up there again this evening to see what the crowds are like then.
posted by Paul Slade at 3:34 AM on June 23, 2016


leibniz - I do not think we have a moral duty to permit economic migration.

asok- To give but one example, the NHS has been heavily reliant on migrant workers pretty much since it's conception. There are a good percentage of people in the UK who owe their lives to migrant workers.

That's not a moral argument, but a prudential one. And both morally and prudentially, we ought to be investing in our NHS more- not relying on other countries to train our health professionals.
posted by leibniz at 3:38 AM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


In the US, political ads, slogans, shirts, and signs in front yards are relatively normal. It's not like that in England. Well, it wasn't until now. This. This is different.

It's literally everywhere. Everyone is talking about it. Even when they're not talking about it, I know they're thinking about it, like tiny thought bubbles above their heads.

After I voted this morning I went to Sainsburys to get some juice and two young men were talking about it. "I'm not going to vote," said the taller one. "But I told my mum to vote remain" he says, as if too embarrassed about his own stance.

Buses tell me to vote, with hands with big Xs on their white palms. Newspapers threaten me that if I vote remain that "Albania and Turkey are going to join the EU!" while others insist that families will be torn apart like ripped pieces of paper if I vote leave.

I even went to see my GP the other week and between the examination and prescription, he asked. I suggested he move to Australia with all the other GPs if we have to leave. "I'm too old," he told me.
posted by Ms. Moonlight at 3:38 AM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


Remain can chill: the bookmakers now have Remain getting shorter by the minute at 1/10 currently, and the prediction markets are rock solid for Remain. The big finance outfits do their own secret exit polls as the day goes on so look for currency speculation as well if you understand that stuff (I don't!).
posted by Coda Tronca at 3:40 AM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


For example you've got even Farage saying he wants more Indian immigration compared to European (based around the shared English language and usage of the common law). Then at another extreme you've got people who really don't want any immigrants, including English-speaking white people (see some of the comments here, for example).

Racism comes in many flavours! Some people are racist against Indians, some people against those with a funny accent, since against those who haven't had the "pleasure" of role under the British crown, some against everyone not born on their island! It's a veritable rainbow of hatred!
posted by Dysk at 3:40 AM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]


Regarding weather and turnout: (copied from the other thread)

In the UK:
Oxford academic and election specialist John Curtice when asked whether there was firm evidence of a link between weather and turnout said:
"No. We've had one or two general elections when it's been raining in some parts of the country and not in another and there has been no significant variation in turnout. Nobody has ever really done the analysis for local elections. It's one of the most common theories of turnout but nobody has ever found the evidence to back it up. We tend to avoid elections in December and January because snow can make a difference. Just because there's a little bit of rain in the south east people think it's relevant."


In the US:
They got data from every county in the U.S. for every presidential election from 1948 to 2000 and magtched that up with weather reports from over 20,000 weather stations and determined that for every inch of rain that a county receives above its average rainfall, turnout decreases roughly about one percentage point. And that reduction in turn out was for the benefit of the Republican party.


In the Netherlands:
A paper in International Journal of Biometeorology merged the election results from over 400 municipalities with election-day weather data drawn from the nearest weather station between 1971 and 2010. It found that the weather parameters indeed affect voter turnout. Election-day rainfall of roughly 25 mm (1 inch) reduces turnout by a rate of one percent, whereas a 10-degree-Celsius increase in temperature correlates with an increase of almost one percent in overall turnout. One hundred percent sunshine corresponds to a one and a half percent greater voter turnout compared to zero sunshine.
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 3:50 AM on June 23, 2016 [9 favorites]


To give but one example, the NHS has been heavily reliant on migrant workers pretty much since it's conception. There are a good percentage of people in the UK who owe their lives to migrant workers.

It is certainly true that the NHS has a moral duty to provide healthcare, and that much of it is delivered by immigrants. But there is still no ultimate moral duty to allow economic migration, as using migration to staff the NHS is policy and not a unalterable fact of life. It has always been UK policy to use less economically developed countries as sources of skilled healthcare staff rather than bear the training costs at home. The morality of that is questionable, but it is certainly not something which cannot be changed.

I don't believe in an autarkic healthcare system, but the use of the NHS to back up the argument for immigration is a red herring. The more so for its use in supporting unskilled EU migration, as EU citizens in the NHS tend toward the less skilled occupations rather than skilled such as doctors and nurses. I have spent my whole life being seen by doctors of different origins (Indian, Pakistani, Bangladeshi, Ugandan Indian, Malaysian, Somalian, Iraqi, and Egyptian), but so far never a doctor of European descent who wasn't English. The EU workforce entering the UK is nowhere near as skilled as those entering from outside the EU: only about 12% of EU migrants meet the criteria for non-EU migrants.
posted by Emma May Smith at 3:52 AM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


Fact checking brexit is the conclusion in a series of articles on the claims made by each campaign.

The author claims
"At every single turn, I found that the Leave campaign’s arguments were founded on lies."
and:
"every claim of [remain] I’ve checked  ... has turned out to be more or less sound."

of course there is plenty of scope there for cherry picking or game playing over what is and isn't a lie etc. etc.
(and the author has a pro-remain bias before he started)
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 3:58 AM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


leibniz, the moral argument is below that. The idea that human beings should be restricted from movement about the planet is what I am questioning. That there are immediately obvious positive results is worth bearing in mind.

Obviously we aught to be investing in the NHS, training people and making the jobs appealing. That has not been the case in the continuing drive to privatise and break up the NHS that has been ongoing since the 1980's. There is a reason why we have had to recruit overseas for these roles for the past 40+ years and it has nothing to do with European membership.

People have consistently voted against their best interests as regards the NHS and education, notwithstanding the short lived Libdem university fees promise.

From the New Scientist:
To understand complex issues, it is often a good idea to ask a scientist. One factor uncovered by research is the US's shifting racial demographics, which many people find threatening and respond by becoming racially intolerant. The changing demographics of the UK seems to be having a similar effect.

Fear of change is a natural impulse; the desire to pull up the drawbridge follows. But as we have repeatedly reported, that response is irrational and self-defeating. We urge everyone to think about what the hell is really going on before deciding which way to vote.
Emma May Smith, you have my argument confused. I am simply saying that migration is a net benefit, whether from within the EU or not. It is morally and economically the right thing to do. That there should be investment in training and better workers' rights is also morally and economically the right thing to do in the long run.
posted by asok at 4:00 AM on June 23, 2016


Can I ramble here? I'mma ramble.

I haven't voted yet. I'll do so when I'm home from work this evening in my very Leave-leaning prosperous South of England town. And I genuinely don't know how I'm finally going to tick that box when I'm standing in the booth. Unfortunately "Reluctantly Remain" or "Remain with serious reservations" is not an option. Neither is "Leave, but immediate General Election Please" or "Leave, but it's because I'm not for further integration and was happy with our current periphery status so no hard feelings Europe."

I'm a card-carrying Liberal Democrat, which is the only major (hah) party without a real euro-sceptic wing. It's heavily pro Europe. But none of the Remain arguments, if you can call them that, have been particularly persuasive to genuine undecided voters. It's been all about my pocketbook. Leave will mean a pound collapse. Leave will mean economic misery. Leave will mean doom. Remain will mean... more of the same I guess?

If we wake up tomorrow to a Leave victory, the sun will continue to rise. People will get up and go to work. The markets may punish us for a period, before remembering that none of the actual stuff of the economy has actually gone anywhere. We still have universities. Still have factories. Still have farms. Still have a highly educated, English speaking workforce. Still have an entrepreneurial culture. Still have mostly the same general regulations for public safety and quality of life as other big Western democracies. We still have massive cultural capital, a seat at the UN security council, a senior NATO membership, global military capability, and we're still a few miles off the French coast. In the medium term, we'll be fine I think. The Remain campaign has been all about how bad that short term might be. But in truth, nobody really knows.

I find it interesting and amusing that for this referendum at least, the EU has found an ally with progressives. I mean, the EU is probably the biggest, most badass Neoliberal corporatist institutions in history. Watching Corbyn give his support to the EU through gritted teeth is fun.

So, we'll see. I'm going to cast my vote at about 7pm, and I'll sleep well either way. Leave or Remain, we're going to have some real work to do in the morning.
posted by generichuman at 4:01 AM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]


But god, the anti-immigration racism has been pretty vile. From both sides wanting to appear "tough".

I'm an immigrant, but I'm an invisible immigrant because I'm white and Canadian and middle class and married to an English woman with two English kids.

The number of times I've had to gently remind people that I immigrated here is... irritating.
posted by generichuman at 4:08 AM on June 23, 2016 [10 favorites]


Meanwhile, in the music sphere, Andy Votel (of Finders Keepers Records, a fine purveyor of groovy foreign weirdness) has been campaigning for the In campaign, creating this logo, and sending out tweets like “#VoteBalearic #VoteYeYe #VoteKrautrock #VoteItalo #VoteCosmic #VoteGreekBeat #VotePopcorn #VoteStay #VoteRemain”. Meanwhile, Berlin-based electronic music software provider Native Instruments has urged Britons to vote In.

Which suggests that, should Leave prevail, there'll be no more music software from Berlin, mediterranean disco/psych vinyl, or especially Eurorack modules. All music in Britain will sound like an Oasis cover band from the Medway towns. It'll be the Mod Revival That Never Ended.
posted by acb at 4:10 AM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


generichuman - How about "vote to remain so you can decide later"? :) There's the possibility of another referendum to leave in the future, but we'll never be let back in.
posted by like_neon at 4:11 AM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Voted Remain this morning.

One thing I haven't seen a lot of discussion of is the not-unlikely chance that England as a whole will vote Leave by a narrow margin, but be kept in by the pro-EU votes of Scotland and possibly Wales. That's a distinct possibility, as Scotland is polling strongly pro-Remain and the five million or so of us up here squarely bridge the margin of error in English polling.

As a supporter of Scottish independence who was bitterly disappointed by the Indyref result, I might actually puke from schadenfreude overdose. The wailing about Little England's iron will being overridden by those damn Scots will be something to behold.
posted by Happy Dave at 4:11 AM on June 23, 2016 [20 favorites]


generichuman I find it interesting and amusing that for this referendum at least, the EU has found an ally with progressives. I mean, the EU is probably the biggest, most badass Neoliberal corporatist institutions in history.

Word! I am like, come on everyone, let's go down town for some hardcore civic obedience!
posted by asok at 4:12 AM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


How about "vote to remain so you can decide later"?

Do we just keep voting to renew our membership every few years until we decide to leave? Or would something have to change dramatically to justify having yet another EU membership referendum?
posted by acb at 4:14 AM on June 23, 2016


there are plenty of politicians on the Remain side who have been queuing up to 'talk tough on immigration' and are happy to press all those buttons when it suits them.

I would honestly like to see any example of public Remain rhetoric that comes anywhere close to Farage's "breaking point" poster.

I know there are people on both sides who question the UK's immigration levels, but there can be other reasons for that than racist ones, so there might be ways of discussing and addressing it that avoid racial discrimination (emphasis on the "might"). But none of the people telling EU citizens living in the UK to "go home" are Remain. There are plenty of EU citizens talking online about how they've experienced this; I've heard it from colleagues, too - people who have lived here for decades. The lack of public reassurance from the Leave camp about the post-Brexit fate of EU citizens who are already here only fuels it. There's no equivalent silence from Remain, because obviously Remain = freedom of movement, and the question doesn't arise.
posted by rory at 4:14 AM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


specifically the capacity to elect the EU commission

Are we going to elect Whitehall, then? Because we can implement that right now. Bloody unelected bureaucrats and their undemocratic ways, drafting laws and shaping policies for the UK Parliament to consider.

It's not like that in England. Well, it wasn't until now. This. This is different. It's literally everywhere. Everyone is talking about it.

One of the fascinating features of this referendum is that here in Edinburgh (and presumably the rest of Scotland, but I don't know), there are no signs in windows at all; the difference between this and the indyref in 2014 is marked. I think a lot of it's because we were suffering from Momentous Referendum fatigue. Now England knows the feeling too.
posted by rory at 4:15 AM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


One of the fascinating features of this referendum is that here in Edinburgh (and presumably the rest of Scotland, but I don't know), there are no signs in windows at all; the difference between this and the indyref in 2014 is marked.

Seen one or two signs in the New Town, all Remain. And a few Leave signs on Instagram, mostly in fishing communities. But yeah, compared to the Indyref, it's been barely visible. It's an English argument, pretty much.

I think a lot of it's because we were suffering from Momentous Referendum fatigue. Now England knows the feeling too.

Word.
posted by Happy Dave at 4:17 AM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


none of the Remain arguments, if you can call them that, have been particularly persuasive to genuine undecided voters. It's been all about my pocketbook.

The pocketbook certainly matters, but for me what matters more is that we're part of the only region in the world where our citizenship is effectively like having 28 citizenships. There's nowhere else like it. If you're from Australia or New Zealand, you have something roughly equivalent in respect of one another; or if you're from the US and Canada. But there aren't too many more examples like that.

It's expensive to secure the right to live and work in just one other country, let alone citizenship there, and it takes years and years. Ask any of us who've done it. To have that right for most of Europe is extraordinary. Extraordinary.
posted by rory at 4:18 AM on June 23, 2016 [20 favorites]


I've been trying to expand my circle of opinions that I follow, to break down the echo chamber a bit, and it is staggeringly difficult to do (because my opinions are all correct and based on the bets mix of sound logic and morals).

But one thing that I have seen is that a lot of Leave fans really feel very very strongly, real deep convictions heart and soul. (Very much unlike the majority of Remain). They also are in their own well reinforced echo chamber, and if the vote doesn't go Leave I really think there will be problems. They won't go away, not the hardcore believer who've only been emboldened by this referendum and it's hateful campaign.
There will be at least some violence in the streets tonight, if Remain win.
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 4:18 AM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


marienbad: DOn't believe me? Look at income and wealth inequality and ho it has gone up while we have been in the EU. Look at the combined wealth (bottom 10% = £5.7 bn, top 10% = £5 tn) so when people say we get more back than we put in it is going to the rich and powerful, not the poor.

Could an alternative explanation be that the EU has enriched everyone and it is the politics of the Tories that have failed spectacularly in distributing this wealth?

And frankly, George Osborne says remain - have you seen how vicious this guys policies are towards the poor, the mentally ill, the sick, the disadvantaged? When he says remain, you know we should be leaving.

I loathe George Osborne but this isn't a referendum about the Tories. All the major parties are for Remain, including the Greens and SNP - two parties I respect and that I do believe care about the common welfare.
The fact is that the EU provides protection for businesses, yes, but also provides protection for consumers. If all EU laws suddenly disappear, which ones do you think will be upheld and which will be eroded?

Your argument is the same as a good friend of mine (who was one of my referees for British Citizenship). A lot of people are angry. They should be angry. But this is not the right deal. This won't fix those things and will likely make them worse.
I voted Remain this morning and I will keep fighting to kick the Tories out and get people into power who really care about the people of this country and work toward a more equitable society.
posted by vacapinta at 4:20 AM on June 23, 2016 [17 favorites]


As a supporter of Scottish independence who was bitterly disappointed by the Indyref result, I might actually puke from schadenfreude overdose. The wailing about Little England's iron will being overridden by those damn Scots will be something to behold.

Yesterday, I saw a talk at Hacks & Hackers London by Joe Twyman of YouGov, about the uncertainty in referendum polling. He pointed out that YouGov don't know which way the referendum is likely to go (it's too close), though there are a few trends: for example, England and Wales are close, but Scotland and Northern Ireland lean strongly Remain (as does London, if separated). One takeaway is that, in his estimation, Leave would need a 4% lead in England to overcome Scotland/Northern Ireland. (The scenario he posited was called “Scot-blocked”, in which Scotland keeps the UK (barely) in.)

(There was also a beer poll there: a free bar offered Birra Moretti (which counted as a Remain vote) or London Pride (which counted as a Leave vote). The poll resulted in a 73% Remain victory (putting journalists/journalistic hackers alongside Guardian readers in opinion), and I witnessed a lot of people going to the bar and saying that, while they would prefer London Pride, they will take a Moretti for what it symbolises.)
posted by acb at 4:21 AM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


If we wake up tomorrow to a Leave victory, the sun will continue to rise. People will get up and go to work. The markets may punish us for a period, before remembering that none of the actual stuff of the economy has actually gone anywhere. We still have universities. Still have factories. Still have farms. Still have a highly educated, English speaking workforce. Still have an entrepreneurial culture. Still have mostly the same general regulations for public safety and quality of life as other big Western democracies. We still have massive cultural capital, a seat at the UN security council, a senior NATO membership, global military capability, and we're still a few miles off the French coast. In the medium term, we'll be fine I think.

...and the "we" that have those things just got a lot smaller.
posted by Dysk at 4:25 AM on June 23, 2016 [13 favorites]


(Because it will almost certainly not be plain sailing, life as usual for a bunch of us who are EU migrants and not part of any elite)
posted by Dysk at 4:26 AM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


rory: The pocketbook certainly matters, but for me what matters more is that we're part of the only region in the world where our citizenship is effectively like having 28 citizenships.

This is my fundamental issue with how the Remain campaign has been run. Leaving aside all the nastiness about immigration, Leave tapped offer a vision of what the UK should be. It's not a vision that I agree with, but at least they have something more profound than Remain's uninspiring appeal to the pocketbook. This is perhaps because the Tories drive the Remain campaign - the European ideal is not one they've had much time for. Even the John Oliver clip is basically 'hold your nose and vote remain, so you don't become poor(er)'. Surely there was a better story to be told.
posted by tavegyl at 4:27 AM on June 23, 2016 [6 favorites]


The comedian Daniel Kitson just sent this out on his mailing list, which is normally well written, but only really about upcoming show dates. Anyway I thought you might enjoy it.

"For just under two weeks, I've had a wonky red poster in my front room window urging passers by to vote remain. Doing my bit to get the word out. The only problem being that i live on a cul de sac and the passers by are largely limited to my neighbours, a vocal cluster of randy foxes and the occasional man from newcastle selling fish for the freezer.

I had the poster for quite a while before i put it up, it arrived from the labour party along with a reminder to pay my membership fees and for a few weeks it sat in the front room on the table. Folded up. The truth is that I was too embarrassed and frightened to put it up. I was embarrassed by the campaign to remain and i was frightened by the campaign to leave. I felt very much like everything was lurching towards something terrible and misguided and driven by the reckless, sometimes racist, rhetoric of the Campaign to leave and not being effectively opposed by a Remain campaign that was hamstrung by the complex pragmatism of its enthusiasm for Europe.

Now, I understand that it may seem insufficient to cite the mendacity and duplicity of the leave campaign as a reason for voting to Remain. But to witness the out and out lies being told, the concerted muddying of statistical water and the denigration of independent expert research has been thoroughly depressing. Watching Boris Johnson and Michael Gove acquire a sudden interest in the disenfranchised and manipulating other peoples anger and frustration in order to advance their own personal and political ambitions, happily appropriating UKIP slogans, welcoming their supporters and obviously, from time to time sanctimoniously denouncing the dog whistle horrors they secretly hope will hand them victory,

However, of course, no one wants to vote for option A just because option B is entirely populated by terrible, sickening, self interested shit bags. It's not inspiring and it doesn't make you feel like a hero, doing the right thing and taking a brave stand against the baddies. Besides, the Remain campaign has had more than its fair share of grim turnips trotting out twaddle. Not least, the prime minister, being both unable and unwilling to acknowledge that the main problems exploited by the leave campaign (lack of housing, struggling public services, low wages) were not the fault of the EU or immigration but his own Tory government and their utterly idealogical austerity politics and that actually the EU has not only provided access to a free market with the facile benefits of cheaper flights and affordable holidays and lack of roaming charges but also brought forward vital legislation on workers rights and protection from discrimination and parental leave and sickness rights and equal pay and environmental standards and human rights.

So I'm not voting Remain, simply or even mainly, in order to take a stand against Nigel Farage, Boris Jonson and Michael Gove with their courageous, privately educated, independently wealthy and media dominating underdog campaign against the establishment. I am voting Remain because Europe, at its core is about consensus and compromise and cooperation. Three things which whilst undeniably nauseating to talk about are, gallingly, in almost every situation the best or only way to find a solution.

I've gone back and forth on whether telling you this was a good thing to do what with me being a card carrying** member of the metropolitan elite tooting my opinion horn into what is, largely if not entirely, the self congratulatory echo chamber of my own mailing list. Especially since, for me, two of the lowest points of the campaign were watching Eddie Izzard on Question Time and Bob Geldoff on the Thames, seeing their failure to understand how their, doubtless well meaning, involvement was only galvanising the campaign to leave and very much playing into the idea that rich, famous people, whilst happily ensconced in their own privilege were telling the disenfranchised how to vote in order to preserve their celebrity lifestyle.

That shouldn't be the case here though, because two weeks ago I couldn't afford to buy an oreo cornetto and of course am not a celebrity. I am a known recluse.***

So the reason i have told you, is the same reason I eventually put my poster up. I was walking to meet a friend in crystal palace, where i live. I'd driven to wales the previous day and saw endless vote leave billboards in the fields lining the motorways, i'd seen placards stapled to lamp posts in the village i'm from and It had been a typically saddening day on the news, full of claims and counterclaims and falsehoods and floundering and i felt worried, deeply worried that it was over, that we were going to leave Europe. I was lost in my thoughts and isolate in my worry when I saw a little A3 Remain poster, the first one i'd seen in the whole campaign. In a shop window. A toy shop. A small Independent toy shop. And seeing that gave me such disproportionate cheer, it was incredible, It reminded me that i was not alone in my beliefs and that they weren't actually the disconnected, self involved beliefs of the liberal, metropolitan elite. They were the complicated, compromised, hopeful and optimistic beliefs of lots of people. People In all walks of life, in all sorts of areas of the country, who for all sorts of reasons rejected the implicit and explicit separatism of the leave campaign.

So i went home and put the poster up to change the minds of the foxes and the fish man.

I feel like a lot of people voting Remain aren't really banging on about it. Probably, i think, because we aren't entirely satisfied with the decision we've had to make. There are issues around Europe that we feel unhappy with, there are implicit agreements with people we dislike and there are misgivings about the campaign that have left us largely devoid of inspiration. In short, it feels less like taking a stand and more like making a compromised and conflicted decision.

But actually, making that comprised, conflicted, unsatisfying decision is taking a stand and that, i think, is the whole point.

So there you are.
Sorry its a bit late in the day, i find phrasing this sort of stuff deeply fiddly.
Good luck everyone.
GOODBYE FOREVER.

* - In fact I've already done it. Did it ages ago. In a special envelope
** - We actually have cards, they get you discounts on a subscription to the Gaurdian and free entry into Stringfellows.
*** -https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recluses"
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 4:29 AM on June 23, 2016 [15 favorites]


Surely there was a better story to be told.

It has been nice to see on Twitter the different messages coming from other EU countries encouraging Britain to remain. Those are just a few, there was one I saw on Twitter moments that was something about croissants and notes from France. Mmmmm croissants...
posted by like_neon at 4:32 AM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Leave tapped offer a vision of what the UK should be

I.e., a rosy nostalgic view of an idealised past, before the Windrush and Beatlemania, back when children respected their elders, builder's tea had milk in it, and a man could both smoke in a pub and expect his wife to have dinner ready by the time he got home. Also: old maids cycling to communion past a village cricket match or something like that.
posted by acb at 4:33 AM on June 23, 2016 [8 favorites]


I.e., a rosy nostalgic view of an idealised past, before the Windrush and Beatlemania, back when children respected their elders, builder's tea had milk in it, and a man could both smoke in a pub and expect his wife to have dinner ready by the time he got home. Also: old maids cycling to communion past a village cricket match or something like that.

It just shows how little idea you have of what motivates Leavers. I think this is an intellectual 'here be dragons' for some Remainers.
posted by Emma May Smith at 4:39 AM on June 23, 2016 [9 favorites]


Given that the UK is generally on the right of Europe politically, leaving only seems likely to increase the influence of exploitative capitalism in the UK. If you think that a free market ideology is a bad thing, perhaps you should be more worried about the UK’s influence on Europe than Europe’s influence on the UK.
posted by Bloxworth Snout at 4:43 AM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]


I think Emma May Smith is absolutely right, and further I think not being able to put yourself in the mindset of the other side is a major problem in UK (and seriously in US) politics right now.
Politics should be about reaching consensus and compromise, but both sides have deeply entrenched views.
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 4:44 AM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


I saw a little A3 Remain poster, the first one i'd seen in the whole campaign. In a shop window. A toy shop. A small Independent toy shop. And seeing that gave me such disproportionate cheer, it was incredible, It reminded me that i was not alone in my beliefs

I felt a bit like that over recent days with #catsagainstbrexit and people changing their Twitter handles and icons. So this morning I changed my Twitter icon to the EU flag too, just for today; and it reminded me how much I like the EU flag. Looking at the stars in the sky makes me feel part of something bigger.
posted by rory at 4:46 AM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


There have been very few visible signs of the campaign in my corner of south-east Wales: one house with a ‘Leave’ poster in the window; and a couple of cars sporting ‘Independence Day’ stickers; and scarcely a visible sign of ‘Remain’ anywhere.

I voted Remain at 08:00 because of my pro-cosmopolitan & anti-isolationist sympathies; because I’ve benefitted from the freedom of movement within the EU, and from living & working in other EU countries, and would like others to continue to enjoy those benefits; because of the short-term economic upheaval that a Leave vote would likely cause; because of my aversion to the xenophobic elements in the Leave campaign, and despite my qualms at finding myself on the same side as Cameron, Cumberbatch & (most of) the Corporations.
posted by misteraitch at 4:51 AM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


Given that the UK is generally on the right of Europe politically, leaving only seems likely to increase the influence of exploitative capitalism in the UK. If you think that a free market ideology is a bad thing, perhaps you should be more worried about the UK’s influence on Europe than Europe’s influence on the UK.

A thousand times this. Leaving the EU will be no victory for the worker. We'll become a backwater where the right-wing will reign unchallenged and unconstrained, not a magically prosperous paradise for all.
posted by Happy Dave at 4:58 AM on June 23, 2016 [14 favorites]


tavegyl - This is my fundamental issue with how the Remain campaign has been run. Leaving aside all the nastiness about immigration, Leave tapped offer a vision of what the UK should be

Absolutely, the Leave campaign leaders are all ex-journalists and know how to provide rhetorical flourish and headline ready sound bites. They have a simple message, slogan and neologism, whereas the Remain campaign have none of that. This reflects the arguments in my opinion, on one side you have sloganeering, appeals to patriotism and racist dog whistling, and on the other a mish mash of rational arguments and appeals to authority which are more complex and difficult to convey in a sound bite friendly way. The Bremain campaign has been a sad thing to behold, if they had their chops they should have been able to reduce the Leave vote to the crazification factor mentioned above.

Emma May Smith may be right that there are some Remain voters that do not understand the motivation of the Leavers, but that works both ways. I have spent plenty of time reading about this and discussing it with anyone I could find on the Leave side, but I have heard no arguments that are solely related to EU membership. They are all issues to do with governing the UK, if you put aside the immigration issue which is the red herring/elephant in the room.
posted by asok at 5:03 AM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


not being able to put yourself in the mindset of the other side is a major problem in UK (and seriously in US) politics right now.

It benefits late capitalist 'managed' or guided democracies to encourage this ('Culture Wars'). You want the people divided into two frothing camps that loathe each other with absolute certainty, while almost never lifting the lid on the money and power relations that really affect people's lives. This referendum has just accelerated the UK along the lines set out by the US.
posted by Coda Tronca at 5:06 AM on June 23, 2016 [13 favorites]


I think Emma May Smith is absolutely right, and further I think not being able to put yourself in the mindset of the other side is a major problem in UK (and seriously in US) politics right now.

It's pretty hard to put yourself in the mindset of the Leave camp when their talking points are dogwhistle racism, outright lies or vague utopian ideals of chaos and its institutional benefits.

I mean the post-Brexit Johnson-Gove-Farage regime may be a triumph of workers rights and greater democracy but I have a strange feeling that it wouldn't be.
posted by brilliantmistake at 5:12 AM on June 23, 2016 [12 favorites]


A thousand times this. Leaving the EU will be no victory for the worker. We'll become a backwater where the right-wing will reign unchallenged and unconstrained, not a magically prosperous paradise for all.

The collapse in value of the pound after Britain's exit is also a bug rather than a feature. Actual wealth will be stored outside of Sterling, and a cheaper pound means lower labour costs. For the working people, that means fewer holidays abroad and imported goods.

And, of course, without the right to work abroad, it's not like EU workers could try their luck in, say, Germany or somewhere, unless they're highly-skilled and thus visa-worthy professionals.
posted by acb at 5:16 AM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


A big sterling deval does however allow Britain to be more attractive as a manufacturing center.

Something that will be important as you are going see meaningful reduction in GDP from Financial Services as lot of things done in the Southeast for the Eurozone will go away.
posted by JPD at 5:26 AM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


It's pretty hard to put yourself in the mindset of the Leave camp when their talking points are dogwhistle racism, outright lies or vague utopian ideals of chaos and its institutional benefits.

I mean the post-Brexit Johnson-Gove-Farage regime may be a triumph of workers rights and greater democracy but I have a strange feeling that it wouldn't be.


If you read some of the articles by John Harris he points out that the official Leave campaigners--and the big personalities--aren't at all liked by many Leavers.
posted by Emma May Smith at 5:30 AM on June 23, 2016


The whole thing is baffling. A bunch of shouty racists trying to force a country to commit economic suicide.

In the US, we call that "the Republican party"
posted by Foosnark at 5:38 AM on June 23, 2016 [18 favorites]


It's pretty hard to put yourself in the mindset of the Leave camp when their talking points are dogwhistle racism, outright lies or vague utopian ideals of chaos and its institutional benefits.

It is hard, it's very hard, but it's essential.
You can't just write of your opponents as all crazy racists or dupes. There are too many of them, maybe 50% of the country.
They believe that Brexit is right, and will do what it takes to get people to think that. Sure some arguments they may know to be weak, and some they accept because ideological zeal covers the cracks and they make themselves believe.
Are you so sure that every political argument you've ever made is rock solid, that you're not equivocating a little and lying to yourself a little because it benefits your side? Cos I've done that a ton even when I try hard not to.
It's essential that we understand why they believe what they believe.
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 5:38 AM on June 23, 2016 [11 favorites]


A big sterling deval does however allow Britain to be more attractive as a manufacturing center.

Something that will be important as you are going see meaningful reduction in GDP from Financial Services as lot of things done in the Southeast for the Eurozone will go away.


Except of course that the main economist Patrick Minford claims "leaving the EU would “mostly eliminate manufacturing”
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 5:41 AM on June 23, 2016


Oh, and in trying to remember his name I found this: Economists For Brexit
An interesting read.
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 5:42 AM on June 23, 2016


If you read some of the articles by John Harris he points out that the official Leave campaigners--and the big personalities--aren't at all liked by many Leavers.

I have, he tends to be one of the few broadsheet writers who actually goes out and talks to people and he does make some valid points.

I think he correctly identifies a huge element of the working class that feels disillusioned, unrepresented and separated from modern British society and are using the referendum as a way of giving a bloody nose to the establishment. I live in the West Midlands, that view is very common round these parts and gets twisted into anti immigration rhetoric very easily despite immigrants being the only reason cities like Birmingham still function.
posted by brilliantmistake at 5:48 AM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


The country is run by Tories, do you really think you're going to see manufacturing come back?
posted by Artw at 5:49 AM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


When we say "they", who are we talking about. I know a number of leave supporters, and it's clear that the arguments are diverse. But there is a big chunk of leave support that is not driven by anything reasonable or rational, but rather lies about Europe and immigration promulgated by a right-wing press. If leave wins today, it will, necessarily, be because of racism. The racists make up a much bigger proportion of the leave vote than any possible margin of victory.

And that's really problematic. A vote for leave will always be a victory for racism, even though a significant proportion of leave voters are not motivated by racism.

There are so many different leave arguments one could make (and I think they're all pretty weak, but that's just me) but the argument that will definitely be responsible for any win for leave is an argument that no decent person should countenance. If that happens, I think we can fairly confidently predict what the tenor of our post Brexit politics will be.

So, if you are a leaver saying people need to understand your side of things, make sure you're clear that you understand that many of the people on your side of things are there because of racism, although you are not.
posted by howfar at 5:50 AM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


The big finance outfits do their own secret exit polls as the day goes on so look for currency speculation as well if you understand that stuff

GBP/USD is currently at $1.49. That's up from $1.47 yesterday and $1.40 last week.

The markets are betting on Remain.
posted by plep at 5:51 AM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


When we say "they", who are we talking about.

I was speaking generally about any situation where there is a Them and an Us.

So, if you are a leaver saying people need to understand your side of things...

I voted Remain. I want to understand why many people believe (and strongly) that the answer is Leave (Or take any political position that I disagree with) because if you don't you end up with two sides, hiding in trenches throwing ineffectual rhetoric and bile at each other, that does nothing but make each trench deeper.
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 6:03 AM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]


The big finance outfits do their own secret exit polls as the day goes on so look for currency speculation as well if you understand that stuff

Also gambling companies have the odds in favour of Remain (but you can't see them if you are viewing the internet within the UK).
posted by like_neon at 6:06 AM on June 23, 2016


But you can see an aggregation of them here
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 6:08 AM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


I notice that Patrick Minford, the pro-Brexit economist, is quoted here in the Guardian:
But Minford says it would let businesses spread their wings. He would offset damage to industries protected by high tariffs with some short-term subsidy and by scrapping regulations in areas such as working hours, gender equality and climate change.
That's not a vision of the future UK that I find in any way appealing.
posted by Azara at 6:10 AM on June 23, 2016 [27 favorites]


I expect Remain will win, but in a few areas they could receive less than a third of the vote, and in many less than 40%. Distribution of votes in this referendum will be lumpy and uneven. The lower the margin of the Remain win the more salient this polarization will be for future politics. If UKIP continue to be the only party speaking to one side of this, then heaven can't help us.
posted by Emma May Smith at 6:11 AM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


what matters more is that we're part of the only region in the world where our citizenship is effectively like having 28 citizenships. There's nowhere else like it. If you're from Australia or New Zealand, you have something roughly equivalent in respect of one another; or if you're from the US and Canada.
The US and Canada really isn't like that. I'm Canadian and my wife is American and so we went through the easiest possible route for her to immigrate to Canada after we married. It took $2500 in fees, 120 pages of paperwork and 1.5 years for her to get a permit to live here.

NAFTA does have a special work permit for people in a small list of particular job titles and certifications to work as a contractor. But because I'm a Software Engineer with 20 years of experience but no bachelors degree, rather than a Systems Analyst with a bachelors degree (in any subject), it does not apply to me (which is especially funny because I work remotely for a US company as a contractor while living in Canada, but as soon as I cross the border I can't work for them anymore). Also, that permit has to be renewed every year and only applies while you're working in that particular field.

Border controls between the US and Canada have only gotten stricter since NAFTA. It used to be pretty normal for small border crossings to be largely unguarded and basically on the honour system but there's nothing like that anymore.

I inherited Dutch (and therefore EU) citizenship from my parents (and my children have inherited it from me) and am watching this referendum very closely. Mostly for selfish reasons I really hope Remain wins because I don't want to see copycat referendums in places like the Netherlands and risk seeing the EU disintegrate, and I want my family and my children to have the widest possible choice of where to live and work. I'm generally in favour of things like Quebec, Flemish, Scottish and Catalonian independence while strengthening international institutions like the EU.
posted by borsboom at 6:14 AM on June 23, 2016 [14 favorites]


I voted Remain because I do not want to be metaphorically punched in the face.

I'm very concerned about a possible Leave victory and I won't be at ease unless my favoured result is guaranteed.

The Remain campaign has been kind of hopeless; officially lead by Osborne and Cameron, who have both mostly focused on the economy and house prices. Things which a lot of the disillusioned won't be concerned by, as they are directly looking for acceptable jobs, affordable housing and a decent safety net. Obviously the economy has a big knock-on effect to these, but the lower-level stuff is ignored by the Etonites. Probably because it's their fault the concerns have continued being garbage.
posted by bumcivilian at 6:18 AM on June 23, 2016 [6 favorites]


Looking forward to reading more comments here, as the day progresses.

Our last referendum (IIRC) kicked a better voting system, AV, into the long grass for another generation, again as a result of lies, emotional manipulation, and appeals to ignorance from the right.

This referendum is a chance for a significant land-grab by the populist right, and instinctively I'm against majority decisions like this; the parliamentary system is successful for a reason.

Are there m/any cases where national referenda are successfully used as tools by progressives?
posted by Quagkapi at 6:24 AM on June 23, 2016


The US and Canada really isn't like that.

Thanks - I was going by memories from 15 years ago of my wife's rights to live and work in the US without a visa as a Canadian citizen, but if that's changed then it shows even more clearly what a privilege EU citizens enjoy. And we can add Switzerland and Norway to the list of 28, effectively, as they allow freedom of movement as part of buying into the EU free trade area.

As an Australian citizen I was able to live and work freely in New Zealand twenty years ago, and still would be as far as I'm aware (I'm dual Aust./UK now), but there's been considerable tightening up of welfare agreements between the two, so it's not quite as if we're a citizen of both by being a citizen of one.
posted by rory at 6:27 AM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


> Things which a lot of the disillusioned won't be concerned by, as they are directly looking for acceptable jobs, affordable housing and a decent safety net.

This is something that I've come across a lot, and felt myself during the course of this campaign. The rhetoric coming out of the 'remain' side has largely been about protecting what we have, and a lot of people don't have very much at all. Why should someone be worried about losing their job, when their job is a zero-hours temporary post with no benefits that comes to an end in a few weeks anyway? Why should someone be worried about house prices, when they've been renting shitty outdated terraces on insecure tenancies for a decade?

All too often, it feels like the EU is a thing that benefits the few, rather than the many. It's for the people who have the education, money, resources and social capital to do things like take advantage of an Erasmus year in Paris or a cheaper university education in Amsterdam or a high-end job in Frankfurt. For the many people who are just getting by month-to-month in insecure work, it doesn't appear at first glance to have have a great deal of relevance to daily life. Of course, if you dig deeper you find that a lot of workers' rights (such as they are) are enshrined in EU law, but if you're working 60-hour weeks at a warehouse you aren't likely to go home and research the EU online to find this stuff out, and the people in charge of the campaigns certainly didn't allow facts to trouble their soundbites.

Too much of the 'remain' campaign has been government officials, corporate bosses, university professors and other people who often feel like our betters telling us how to vote or else. It's no wonder people are hitting back - it's a shame they have no other way to do so than by voting 'leave'.
posted by winterhill at 6:35 AM on June 23, 2016 [12 favorites]




I voted.

I'm a UK expat, now Australian citizen. That makes me a migrant.

Two weeks ago, when the polling started to get a bit squeaky, I registered to vote and arranged a proxy. My sister (a witch) became The Witch with Two Votes.

She has been using this to annoy the "Leave" brigade in the rural southwest:

"Well, I'm sure you'll vote as you see fit. Everybody gets one vote. Except me. I get two, of course."

Apparently, some people find this infuriating.
posted by Combat Wombat at 6:45 AM on June 23, 2016 [36 favorites]


The Grindr view of the EU Ref

Guys who think 'long and hard'...
posted by Coda Tronca at 6:51 AM on June 23, 2016


Are there m/any cases where national referenda are successfully used as tools by progressives?

Here in Ireland the written Constitution can only be amended by a referendum, so we have lots of examples, as you can see in the Wikipedia list.

Because our 1937 Constitution was presented by de Valera at the height of 1930s conservatism, there were some dreadful things in it by modern standards, which have been gradually chipped away.
I have voted in referendums to (among other things):
-allow votes for non-citizens
-remove the ban on divorce
-ratify the Good Friday agreement
-put a ban on capital punishment into the Constitution
-allow same-sex marriage
which I think are overall fairly progressive.

Because they are more common, voters are more familiar with the idea of referendums, and there is a better framework in place. Since the point is to amend the Constitution, the exact wording is normally well thrashed out beforehand, and people vote on a specific proposal rather than a general intent. The Referendum Commission is normally chaired by a High Court Judge (or retired Supreme Court Judge) and has a duty to disseminate information from a neutral standpoint.
posted by Azara at 6:57 AM on June 23, 2016 [15 favorites]


Brexit would suck for England. Scotland would eventually split off. Europe would have one less whiner onboard and would likely move closer to the unitary state most other members think it should become. From an outsider's perspective it would be a much more interesting timeline.
posted by Meatbomb at 6:57 AM on June 23, 2016


And we can add Switzerland and Norway to the list of 28, effectively, as they allow freedom of movement as part of buying into the EU free trade area.

And Iceland and Liechtenstein, as part of the EEA. Who wouldn't want freedom to live in Iceland?

For what it's worth, Switzerland isn't part of the EEA, but it does have a special agreement in place which means there is 'effectively' free movement. But this is more provisional than in Norway or Iceland.

Switzerland is of course a special case in many ways. Even more special than Blighty. An island but surrounded by mountains and not water.
posted by plep at 6:58 AM on June 23, 2016


It's for the people who have the education, money, resources and social capital to do things like take advantage of an Erasmus year in Paris or a cheaper university education in Amsterdam or a high-end job in Frankfurt.

Yet some of the same people who feel that way will turn around and complain about EU migrants coming here to take their blue-collar jobs. So, is freedom of movement only for financiers in Frankfurt, or is it for manual workers too? If you can travel to Prague for a stag weekend, you could travel there for a job.
posted by rory at 7:01 AM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


If you can travel to Prague for a stag weekend, you could travel there for a job.

If you want to earn an average of 793 Euros a month you can.
posted by Coda Tronca at 7:06 AM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


If you want to earn an average of 793 Euros a month you can.


I suspect Czechs find it more pleasant to get money by finding scutwork in England than by cleaning up English punter vomit on their own streets.
posted by ocschwar at 7:08 AM on June 23, 2016


If you can travel to Prague for a stag weekend, you could travel there for a job.
I mean, you could in theory, but for how many working-class people would that actually make sense?
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 7:08 AM on June 23, 2016


Farage's 'Independence Day' video reminds me of something...
posted by punilux at 7:10 AM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


Switzerland is of course a special case in many ways. Even more special than Blighty. An island but surrounded by mountains and not water.

And currently in grave danger of tearing up its special agreements, because its constitution was amended two and a half years ago (on an initiative by our own shouty racist party) to require immigration quotas, which is anathema to the free movement provisions of those agreements, and to prohibit the government from signing any treaties in conflict with immigration quotas in the meantime. The government has been trying to find some way off the collision course ever since.

If Brexit happens, the Brussels side of discussions to fix the Switzerland MEI mess will be tied up until after the 9 Feb 2017 cutoff date. If that happens, Switzerland-EU relations revert to a 1970s era tariff agreement, which will be... messy.

So vote Remain, and stick it to the shouty racists in two countries at once.
posted by Vetinari at 7:13 AM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


Hedge funds dumping big money into betting markets, to adjust the odds because the value of the pound is heavily correlated to the likelihood of leaving the EU.
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 7:16 AM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]


If you can travel to Prague for a stag weekend, you could travel there for a job.

Get on your bike was an unpleasant and dismissive argument when Norman Tebbit used it and it's not improved with age.
posted by SometimeNextMonth at 7:20 AM on June 23, 2016 [6 favorites]


oh, thanks for that. i just looked at those odds and was wondering why they seemed so skewed.
posted by andrewcooke at 7:21 AM on June 23, 2016


So vote Remain, and stick it to the shouty racists in two countries at once.


Not that I object to sticking it to shouty racists, but it bears remembering that EU policy towards Greece had a lot to do with the emergence and swelling of the Golden Dawn movement, and those racists have been more than just shouty.
posted by ocschwar at 7:21 AM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Money may be piling into betting odds late, but I'm pretty sure prediction markets have been unwavering for Remain ever since the referendum announcement.
posted by Coda Tronca at 7:22 AM on June 23, 2016


For the many people who are just getting by month-to-month in insecure work, it doesn't appear at first glance to have have a great deal of relevance to daily life.

For many people getting by month-to-month add you describe, the EU is supremely relevant, because it's the only thing guaranteeing us the right to continue to eke out that meagre life here. Somehow we - as people - are continually ignored in this debate.
posted by Dysk at 7:23 AM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]


am i right in thinking that betting on remain would hedge against short positions on the pound? so maybe the funds were going short on the pound, expecting leave to win, and then with the murder of jo cox they started to get cold feet and needed some way to cover their positions?
posted by andrewcooke at 7:26 AM on June 23, 2016


From the zerohedge conspiracy theory article above: he dramatic divergence between the neck and neck polling and the actual Brexit odds which see Remain winning with whopping 76% odds.

"Neck and neck polling", even 50%-50%, is highly likely not the same as 50% probability for each of the two possible outcomes
posted by Bwithh at 7:30 AM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]


All too often, it feels like the EU is a thing that benefits the few, rather than the many. It's for the people who have the education, money, resources and social capital to do things like take advantage of an Erasmus year in Paris or a cheaper university education in Amsterdam or a high-end job in Frankfurt.
This is a great point. And then that privileged few go on Twitter or other parts of the liberal internet and denigrate leavers using the pitiless and othering language of contemporary anti-racism. If they're all just "bigots" and "racists," after all, their concerns can be summarily dismissed as essentially wrong and not worth engaging with. There's a refusal to understand or empathise coming from a certain section of the liberal left that I find disturbing. It increasingly reads as a form of class snobbery directed at those who haven't had access to the (considerable) economic and educational advantages of those pointing the finger.
posted by Sonny Jim at 7:33 AM on June 23, 2016 [16 favorites]


The #usepens hashtag is a bit worrying.
S many people are convinced that their vote might be changed that if the count is close I don't see them accepting it.
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 7:34 AM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


[Couple of comments deleted. "You're a liar" is not a good way to participate in a conversation here.]
posted by LobsterMitten at 7:42 AM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Even if you hate AA Gill (which I don't), it's hard to beat his recent summary of the Brexiteers' case.
posted by Paul Slade at 7:43 AM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Is using pens even allowed? I'm pretty sure that here in Canada, using anything other than the provided pencil would spoil your ballot.
posted by rodlymight at 7:45 AM on June 23, 2016


Hedge funds dumping big money into betting markets, to adjust the odds because the value of the pound is heavily correlated to the likelihood of leaving the EU.

ew. ZeroHedge link.
posted by JPD at 7:46 AM on June 23, 2016


Brexit would suck for England. Scotland would eventually split off.

And quite possibly Northern Ireland. A weird way for reunification to happen, but I'm sure the republicans would take it.
posted by bonehead at 7:48 AM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]


Did David Cameron not say that he will campaign to leave if his demands were not met last year? Were WW3 and other economic apocalyptic scenarios not so realistic back then?
posted by asra at 7:52 AM on June 23, 2016


The rules on ballot papers are fairly lax. If you've made a single indication of what vote you want then it will be counted. Doesn't matter how.
Here is a pdf (sorry) of some examples
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 7:53 AM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Oh also, is ZeroHedge bad? Like a finance DailyMail? I'd not seen it before.
(Do we have a page on the wiki for place we should avoid linking?)
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 7:54 AM on June 23, 2016


All too often, it feels like the EU is a thing that benefits the few, rather than the many. It's for the people who have the education, money, resources and social capital to do things like take advantage of an Erasmus year in Paris or a cheaper university education in Amsterdam or a high-end job in Frankfurt.

What about the people employed in huge manufacturing plants sited in the UK to export to the EU? Or the working class people enjoying their retirements in Spain? Or flying all over Europe on cheap flights? Or enjoying paternity or maternity leave?

When I think of a privileged few Boris Johnson comes to mind a bit quicker than a few muesli slippered Guardianistas.
posted by brilliantmistake at 7:56 AM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]


Oh also, is ZeroHedge bad? Like a finance DailyMail? I'd not seen it before.

oh god. it's speculative, unreliable and certainly not lefty. but at times it can also be interesting and thought provoking. so do we have to increase the echo chamber to 11 with additional informal rules about things We Must Not Speak About?
posted by andrewcooke at 7:59 AM on June 23, 2016 [7 favorites]


certainly not lefty

You can get snarked on here for linking to wsws.org or Counterpunch.
posted by Coda Tronca at 8:02 AM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


There's a refusal to understand or empathise coming from a certain section of the liberal left that I find disturbing. It increasingly reads as a form of class snobbery directed at those who haven't had access to the (considerable) economic and educational advantages of those pointing the finger.

Again, theres this assumption that Remain voters/ left liberals are all ivory tower elitists who've never met a poor person in their lives. I am working class. These people are my parents, the people I grew up with, my family and friends and colleagues . I know them. That doesn't mean I need to empathise with their concerns that forrins are coming over here and stealing their jobs and their houses.
posted by threetwentytwo at 8:17 AM on June 23, 2016 [18 favorites]


Or enjoying paternity or maternity leave?

Mothers in the UK enjoy more maternity leave than the minimum set out under EU law. The same goes for a number of workers' benefits which go beyond the minimum. The government could cut them without breaking EU rules if it thought taking away holidays would get it more votes. Of course, abolishing--or even cutting--such rights would be politically very difficult.

In a similar vein, I've read that leaving the EU would destroy LGBT rights. Given that the UK has one of the best set of LGBT rights in the world and much, much better than some EU countries, this is rather unlikely. In 2014, ILGA gave the UK a score of 82%, the highest in the whole of Europe. Latvia and Cyprus, both EU members, scored 20%.
posted by Emma May Smith at 8:21 AM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


I just wish I could find a more nuanced critique of the EU that doesn't revolve around Brexiter xenophobia. I would be shocked to learn that every single Brexiter is racist and/or xenophobic, so there must be more to "England first!" than jackboots and shaved heads and shooting MPs. But it's hard, as an American, to find good reporting that doesn't assume I'm already an expert in all things EU. I've read a few grumblings about how infighting makes the response to crises (ie: the Greek economy) glacial and ineffective, but I honestly have less understanding of the day-to-day of EU government than I'd like. If anyone has any suggestions for a decent book or article on the history of the EU and reasonably objective critiques of the problems with its operation I'd love to hear them.

I strongly suspect, but cannot prove, that the UK needs the EU more than the EU needs the UK. I heard a lovely gentleman from Wales on NPR talking about his sheep and cow farm. He is freaking out because 40% of his income is from EU subsidies. He has little to no hope that the British Parliament was going to replace his subsidy in the event of Brexit.
posted by xyzzy at 8:28 AM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


xyzzy - Kenan Malik provides a more measured take here, including noting the role of 'Fortress Europe' in limiting migration and closing borders for those outside the EU magic circle.
posted by Abiezer at 8:37 AM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


I strongly suspect, but cannot prove, that the UK needs the EU more than the EU needs the UK. I heard a lovely gentleman from Wales on NPR talking about his sheep and cow farm. He is freaking out because 40% of his income is from EU subsidies. He has little to no hope that the British Parliament was going to replace his subsidy in the event of Brexit.

About 45% of the EU's budget goes on CAP, which is basically (though it's a little more complicated) farm subsidies. The UK doesn't benefit from this hugely because of the tiny size of its farming sector (much less than 1% of GDP). The UK actually gets a rebate to make up for how little it receives in farm subsidies compared to how much it pays into the EU. There's a good argument that the CAP doesn't really work for the UK's farming sector: overpaying large producers and keeping small inefficient farmers in business. Were the UK to leave, however, it would be able to remove tariffs on food imported from outside the EU which would make food cheaper and, arguably, help farmers in less economically developed countries.

Nothing I've said above is definitive, naturally, and you might hear opposing arguments about the CAP. But it's certainly not easy to sort out the benefits of EU membership based on a single viewpoint.
posted by Emma May Smith at 8:43 AM on June 23, 2016


If the vote is very close, either way, you'll certainly see a renewed vigor in the Scottish (and perhaps Welsh) independence movement, which will almost certainly pass this time. Basically, by trying to mollify this inter-party squabble, Cameron may very well initiate the political partition of the UK as we know it.
posted by Chrischris at 8:44 AM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Thanks Azara, that's a really good list. I am duly convinced that they can be used for good.

Unfortunately, not this time. Not least because the entire motivation behind this referendum is placation of certain parts of the Conservative party, and a chance at regaining some ground from Farage's BNP-lite. This was always going to be a battle fought on their blood-stained turf. I wonder to what extent Cameron appreciated that.

It looks like Remain will win (84%!), but at a terrible cost, and I don't see UKIP and the restless Tories going away. It has not been worth it.

My fear is more referenda, called at the whim of the right, whenever they think they can make gains.
posted by Quagkapi at 8:58 AM on June 23, 2016


(* to be clear, that's a current 84% chance of Remain according to betting markets - not the vote split, which I guess will be within 5% of 50-50.)
posted by Quagkapi at 9:01 AM on June 23, 2016


If the vote is very close, either way, you'll certainly see a renewed vigor in the Scottish (and perhaps Welsh) independence movement, which will almost certainly pass this time. Basically, by trying to mollify this inter-party squabble, Cameron may very well initiate the political partition of the UK as we know it.

I'd love to see a federal system in the UK, rather than the constitutional hodgepodge we have today. Though the problem with that is, given that England constitutes about 80% of the population of the UK, there is no way that such an arrangement could be made to work without breaking England up into separate states (something which would meet resistance, as all such plans do).
posted by acb at 9:01 AM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Long read on farming in the UK and EU referendum, previously.
What is clear is that leaving the EU would leave the British countryside more vulnerable. It takes Britain out of a protected political space in which there is a fiercely contested balance of power between environmentalists and agribusiness into an open global arena where agribusiness has the muscle.

What leaving the EU would do would be to leave Britain scrambling to find its niche in a harsher, more extreme environment of intercontinental deals. The history of privatisation, the failure to regulate Britain’s wretched banks and the remorseless attacks on the BBC and the NHS all indicate that Britain’s government has been rewired to accommodate multinational corporate lobbying at the citizen’s expense. Why should it be any different for farmers outside the Common Agricultural Policy?
posted by asok at 9:03 AM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]


And if it happens doesn't Scotland then Scotleave and rejoin the EU?

And if *that* happens, then Mrs 43rd and I will quite possibly be piling our belongings into the car and heading North...
posted by 43rdAnd9th at 9:04 AM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


Wow that EU myths site is fascinating reading of how what appears to be intentional whisper down the lane misreadings of EU law are presented as headlines. This one on the myth of the EU "banning" beaches is a nice succinct example. TL;DR: the EU doesn't open or close beaches. Instead the directive requires monitoring and informing the public of the levels of E-coli and faecal streptococci in bathing waters. If anything the EU directive underplays the risk; the lowest bathing water rating is poor, their is no "OMG, you are bathing in 20% raw sewage, get out, get out, get out" rating.
posted by Mitheral at 9:05 AM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


(* to be clear, that's a current 84% chance of Remain according to betting markets - not the vote split, which I guess will be within 5% of 50-50.)

A narrow Remain victory isn't so much a victory as a temporary pulling back from the abyss, and the UK's Europhobic fewer becoming somewhat less acute. Farage and co. will still be causing strife, and politicians (mostly Tory, though possibly Labour as well) will still find that blaming Jacques and Fritz and their wine-drinking, garlic-eating buddies in Brussels for their constituents' problems can buy a lot of electoral capital. Perhaps at some point a crisis will pull Britain to another referendum, or even a unilateral declaration of secession. This will continue for another generation at least, until the people who grew up partying in Amsterdam every other weekend and holidaying in Ibiza are in charge.
posted by acb at 9:06 AM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Get on your bike was an unpleasant and dismissive argument when Norman Tebbit used it and it's not improved with age.

That misses the point of what I was arguing there, which was that people claiming that the freedom to live and work on the continent is only for the well-off while simultaneously complaining about manual labourers exercising their freedom of movement to come here are glossing over the fact that freedom of movement in the EU is for everyone in all directions. The point about stag weekends is that the cost of travel isn't the barrier it once was: this is the age of EasyJet and Ryanair. People have all sorts of options today that we didn't have in 1975.

If you were faced with making £73 a week on Jobseekers Allowance in London or £140/week working in Prague (which is what €793/month is roughly worth at the moment), wouldn't you be tempted? I know it wouldn't be right for everybody, but it would be for some. (It wouldn't have to be Prague, though - it could be anywhere in Europe.)

I would never dismiss anyone who didn't want to move to a whole other country for work, but what about those who do? A sizable part of the country has been dismissing the EU citizens who've come here to work.
posted by rory at 9:16 AM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


Something I'm finding a bit concerning lately is the amount of tinfoil hattery that's surrounding this referendum. The whole taking pens to polling stations thing has been laughed at by the press as a bit of a silly polling-day nothing-better-to-write-about-in-the-liveblog story, but I find it really concerning.

If people really, genuinely believe that the intelligence services are going to tamper with ballots to obtain the government's preferred referendum result, that's seriously concerning. To be a developed, civilised society and democracy, citizens have to have a basic level of trust in basic government processes - if we have a significant section of society that's basically rejecting that and assuming government's out to get them, that's frightening. We don't have to believe that the sun shines out of the Cabinet Office, but we do have to assume that on a basic level, government is on our side and running the country in what it believes is our interests.

If people can't assume good faith, assume the other side is arguing their case reasonably and legitimately, if people immediately rush to assume there's some giant conspiracy against their side of the argument... well, that's the sort of breeding ground where extremism flourishes. It needs to be nipped in the bud now somehow before it really takes hold - we can't live in a democracy where people don't believe in the process.
posted by winterhill at 9:17 AM on June 23, 2016 [14 favorites]


All too often, it feels like the EU is a thing that benefits the few, rather than the many.

Pay attention to the word choice. It's not about facts, it's about perception.

What about the people employed in huge manufacturing plants sited in the UK to export to the EU? Or the working class people enjoying their retirements in Spain? Or flying all over Europe on cheap flights? Or enjoying paternity or maternity leave?


If they FEEL like the EU doesn't benefit them, then someone aught to change their perception of the EU's benefits since their perception flies in the face of the facts.

Hopefully most of those folks understand what the EU does for them, but what about their neighbors that don't experience those benefits? Do they realize that their neighbors do? Whether or not people actually do benefit from membership in the EU, they won't vote to stay if their perception is that it doesn't benefits them. It's a case where perception is reality.
posted by VTX at 9:21 AM on June 23, 2016


And if it happens doesn't Scotland then Scotleave and rejoin the EU?

Would also accept Scotdaddle, Abscot, or Scoot-land,
posted by nom de poop at 9:22 AM on June 23, 2016 [24 favorites]


If people can't assume good faith, assume the other side is arguing their case reasonably and legitimately, if people immediately rush to assume there's some giant conspiracy against their side of the argument... well, that's the sort of breeding ground where extremism flourishes. It needs to be nipped in the bud now somehow before it really takes hold

By my definition, the political assassination of a sitting MP means that it's rather too late - it's taken hold.
posted by Dysk at 9:27 AM on June 23, 2016 [12 favorites]


You guys don't use pens to mark ballots?

Every time I've voted, and not used a touch-screen machine, it was with a felt tip pen they gave me to mark a "connect-the-lines" electronically-scanned ballot.
posted by Huffy Puffy at 9:27 AM on June 23, 2016


What is clear is that leaving the EU would leave the British countryside more vulnerable. It takes Britain out of a protected political space in which there is a fiercely contested balance of power between environmentalists and agribusiness into an open global arena where agribusiness has the muscle.

Yeah, American agribusiness would L-O-V-E a Brexit. Within 10 years, every farm in England would either be some hippy organic toy farm or just another arable cog in the Monsanto-Bayer-Deere international conglomerate. They can't survive without EU subsidies now. Hell, they can't even compete with their European compatriots when it comes to yield and pricing, much less Canada and America.
posted by Chrischris at 9:31 AM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Huffy Puffy, I was shocked the first time I voted here, but it typically involves making an x in a square on a flimsy piece of paper with one of those golf pencils. I felt like I was voting for class president in grade school.
posted by nangua at 9:31 AM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


You guys don't use pens to mark ballots?

UK ballots are (mostly) all hand counted. It's charming.
posted by brilliantmistake at 9:32 AM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


As you can imagine, I'm not exactly a big fan of the EU. At least the the current state where the EU has strayed so far from an entity to promote uniform growth across Europe as means to uphold social democracy / democratic socialism values in Europe to prevent the rise of authoritarian communism and fascism, and more of a platform for the finance industry to do as they please, or watching it consider welcoming a two-bit fascist like Erdogan. So, yeah, the EU has a lot of problems going right now, and I'm not 100% sure where I'd put a cross if the same referendum was held here.

But the real question - more than the IMGRUNTS! vs WWIII - is if Torylandia and Blairiteshire would be any different when it comes of making life better for the common citizen without EU "meddling", or the dismantling of the remains of public service would continue for the benefit of the private sector. But that is a question I'm guessing neither side wants to discuss, because most of them would start with "well, actually...."

(out of a pure selfish desire to see what would happen on the cover of The Sun, I'd like to see Remain gain the edge thanks to massive support from Scotland)
posted by lmfsilva at 9:36 AM on June 23, 2016


Lexit seems like the UK homologue of Bernie or Bust.
posted by dhens at 9:38 AM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


You guys don't use pens to mark ballots?

UK ballots are (mostly) all hand counted. It's charming.


Nobody asks for an id either. And, yes, they provide pencils and it is hand-counted.
My wife was stunned by all this and when she discovered this, was told by a poll worker "Madame, in this country we operate on trust!"
posted by vacapinta at 9:38 AM on June 23, 2016 [7 favorites]


There were some tests of electronic voting machines and internet voting in the UK in the early 2000s (I voted online for the novelty) but there were sufficient problems that AFAIK they're never been repeated and we do everything with pencils and bits of paper. The system seems to work pretty well, so I don't think there's any move to change it.

You also don't have to show any ID at the polling station, you can just turn up and tell them your name and address and they tick you off the list.
posted by penguinliz at 9:38 AM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


I would never dismiss anyone who didn't want to move to a whole other country for work, but what about those who do? A sizable part of the country has been dismissing the EU citizens who've come here to work.

I think the difference comes down to economic strategies. Nobody wants to work just to survive. Everybody wants a nice place to live and the hope of something better. EU migrants who come to the UK from Eastern Europe may well simply be here temporarily til they've saved enough money. The goal being to return home with enough to start their own business or buy a house or whatever. Nobody wants to pick potatoes forever. Others with skills may prefer to stay and take advantage of opportunities for better pay which aren't available at home.

Moving out to Czechia from the UK would mean that your chances of coming home are low. You might earn enough to live on, but not enough to save and invest back in England. It's a one way journey for the unskilled. And the attractions of living outside your home country are not that great when you're on a low income. There's not going to be some wonderful cosmopolitan society in a city for you. All the comfortable knowns and webs of community will be broken and replaced with...what?

Wealthy and skilled people can and do migrate all over. Poor and unskilled from low to high pay areas, even if they intend to return. It doesn't make any sense for the poor to leave to a place of lower pay when a great deal of their assets are intangible links and reciprocal relationships.
posted by Emma May Smith at 9:42 AM on June 23, 2016 [6 favorites]


I find it interesting and amusing that for this referendum at least, the EU has found an ally with progressives. I mean, the EU is probably the biggest, most badass Neoliberal corporatist institutions in history. Watching Corbyn give his support to the EU through gritted teeth is fun.

I've encountered this idea a few times while watching the debate from Afar (Tennessee, where England is widely believed to be somewhere in Central Asia and Brexit is what your Dad uses to stave off baldness), and I find it kind of confusing. I'm not an expert on EU economic policy, but just a cursory glance at the Gini Index for family income for the relevant states raises questions:

Great Britain: 32.4
European Union as a whole: 30.9
France 30.1
Germany 27.0

Given that "neoliberalism" is generally held by its critics to increase income inequality, is seems odd that the EU is doing somewhat better than Great Britain in that regard and that the two other largest EU economies are as well. Insofar as I've read up on recent British economic history, the consensus seems to be that the most significant influences on the past twenty years of economic life - including growing income inequality and the decline of economic security, the rise in unemployment, etc. has been internal British politics, that is the policies of first Margaret Thatcher's government and then the following conservative and New Labor leaders. Thatcher certainly never gave much indication that her policies were being dictated from Brussels.

I.e., a rosy nostalgic view of an idealised past, before the Windrush and Beatlemania, back when children respected their elders, builder's tea had milk in it, and a man could both smoke in a pub and expect his wife to have dinner ready by the time he got home. Also: old maids cycling to communion past a village cricket match or something like that.

It just shows how little idea you have of what motivates Leavers. I think this is an intellectual 'here be dragons' for some Remainers.


Yeah. What I'm seeing more of is nostalgia (if we need to call it that) for the postwar stability and prosperity, rather than this odd pastiche of prewar agrarianism, which isn't even within living memory of anyone under eighty. For a lot of people - and this isn't just true of Great Britain - the traumatic economic changes of the past thirty years have been intertwined in lived experience with changes in immigration, social mores, and political and media culture that in some cases have been positive (or at any rate are unrelated to pocketbook erosion), but which all sort of feel like the same giant package.

Given that the UK is generally on the right of Europe politically, leaving only seems likely to increase the influence of exploitative capitalism in the UK. If you think that a free market ideology is a bad thing, perhaps you should be more worried about the UK’s influence on Europe than Europe’s influence on the UK.

This was something I felt powerfully during the arguments over Grexit (even as Greece had and has a vastly more powerful case for feeling put-upon): is it true that leaving the EU actually, objectively (to use an old Marxist canard) would give a national government greater leeway to improve or even to more freely determine its economic situation? The broader global economy has plenty of other constraints and ruthless pressures, some of which were buffered by being part of the EU. The analogy I came to was being part of a labor union - you're going to have to take some shit from the reps, some of whom are more concerned about their own jobs and perks than they are about you, but leaving means stepping into a different power relationship, that between you and your employer. That step might still be worth taking, if the union is truly awful, but you need to think about it and balance the two squarely. I saw a lot of Leftist commentators on Grexit (not actual Greeks, mainly) talking about Greece "reasserting its sovereignty", as if it would then be sitting at the table as a equal with the USA, or Turkey, or China. Instead it would have been a small, poor state in a world with no empathy or respect whatever for such. Again, possibly still worth it, but you have to weigh the option honestly and carefully.

Great Britain, if it leaves will (even if it loses Scotland) have a much better position as an independent power than Greece would have, but at the same time they're still not going to be free to pursue whatever choices they want economically or politically (whether Rightist fantasies of Festung Brittanica or Leftist dreams of rebuilding Old Labor's Camelot of 1945-1972). Will exchanging the problems of inside the EU for the problems of outside the EU make it easier for a Leftist movement inside Britain to make the case for, or a British government to carry out, more egalitarian economic policies, or not?

And given, as I pointed out above, the demonstrated capacity of other large states to achieve greater income equality within the bounds of the EU, it's worth asking the question of whether the latter is actually a, much less the main, purveyor of "neoliberalism" or whether it's a convenient scapegoat for the failure of the British Left (as yet, at least) to recover from the one-two-three gut punch of Thatcherism, the longest suicide note in history, and Tony Blair's dead-end New Labour detour? And if so, who benefits most from that narrative?
posted by AdamCSnider at 9:42 AM on June 23, 2016 [7 favorites]


The UK has terrible polling but at least it has off-track betting. Being here in Dudley, unable to vote, working full time in a job only I could appreciate, being surrounded by people who are passionately attempting a work-life balance, hearing and reading arguments for months on end. I cannot get over the sheer racism of the leave campaign and how urgently they embraced UKIP as a driver for what has been a very ugly campaign. There is certainly a generational divide at the heart of this, but even that is cleaved. I hope that Britain remains in Europe.
I want to address the point of politicians queuing up to say their piece about leaving or remaining. Many parties missed the opportunity to use the referendum to actually organise for future elections because local elections will not be for another two years. The government perfectly timed the referendum to a time when local organisers would be financially exhausted.
If the UK does leave, it will be awful for a while. I cannot predict what will happen in my industries because no one is willing to discuss it. That is the most hostile part.
posted by parmanparman at 9:46 AM on June 23, 2016


Right. I'm going to vote. If there's no line I'll be back in ten minutes. I'll not take my poll card and see how easy it is to vote on trust.
posted by Emma May Smith at 9:54 AM on June 23, 2016


You also don't have to show any ID at the polling station, you can just turn up and tell them your name and address and they tick you off the list.

Which is exactly how I vote in New York City. ID requirements vary by location.
posted by gaspode at 9:55 AM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


Even if you hate AA Gill (which I don't),

Nothing against you personally, but I'm never going to take a recommendation that starts off by proclaiming a lack of hatred for a man who killed a sentient primate for a laugh.
posted by howfar at 10:03 AM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]


The Guardian has a story on the #usepens whackjobbery. I particularly liked this comment:
FFS there are easier ways of rigging an election than issuing MI5 with erasers!
posted by Sonny Jim at 10:04 AM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


Okay, I'm back, and I've got stats.

My polling station covers about 2,230 registered voters.
I was the 863rd person to vote.
The staff expected another 400 votes in the next four hours.
Thus about 1,250 will have voted in person where I live.
However, a certain number of the 2,230 in the area have postal votes.
Return rate for postal votes at that station was 85%

I live in an area which is considered "Strong Leave".
posted by Emma May Smith at 10:08 AM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


just this guy, #usepens is a hilarious hashtag that's been set up to troll the Daily Mail. The story was that MI5 were looming - with a stockpile of rubbers, or erasers as some may know them - ready to erase vote exit ballot papers.

The Mail fell for it. Right there, they're re-tweeting the comedian who started the whole thing, quite unknowingly and quite sincerely. The exit team have been pretty fact-thin. Downright liars, some would say. That they re-tweet ridiculous fake conspiracies that portray them the victim is unsurprising.

Fanks, Mail. Fail. (the guys who proudly backed the Blackshirts and Hitler, in their part for European unity).

The question many are seeing in the referendum is not 'do we leave Europe' but 'have you been convinced that Boris Johnson-created 'eurocrats' are to blame for your economic situation and not 25 years of Reagan/Thatcherite selling of state assets for a song to the emergent neoliberal class'. This is a question that needs addressing, but they're more excited to see an opportunity to express small-minded racism and rejoice in unthinking nationalism instead. For that, I have little sympathy.
posted by davemee at 10:12 AM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]


I'm 44 and I've never taken ID or a poll card to vote in any UK election.
posted by Coda Tronca at 10:18 AM on June 23, 2016


Wish I'd been on the ball enough to do stats. Healthy number queueing at my inner city Brum polling station just now though, did bring my polling card but didn't need it.

Charmed as ever by the row of tiny coats on pegs (our station is a nursery school).
posted by brilliantmistake at 10:30 AM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]




"Now look closely, 007, this is a standard issue rubber. Now I know you've not used one of these in years, so..."
posted by Huffy Puffy at 10:53 AM on June 23, 2016 [8 favorites]


FP: Welcome to the Fantasy Island of Little England,

I've long found it curious how "Little Englander" has become a term of abuse in the modern sense. The original Little Englanders were abusively named so because of their anti-Empire and anti-colonialism and pro-Home Rule opinions. If you didn't want to conquer the world, steal land from its rightful owners, oppress the Irish, and continually spread and exert your influence, you were a contemptible Little Englander. "Great Britain" meant Empire and White Man's Burden and believing that you had a god-given right to rule.
posted by Emma May Smith at 11:00 AM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]


or watching it consider welcoming a two-bit fascist like Erdogan.

No fan of Erdogan, but wouldn't Turkiye joining the EU help counter its fundamentalist and Kurdophobic drift (veer)? Apologies if this seems naive.
posted by aught at 11:03 AM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Just been to vote and seems like theres been a fairly decent turnout- lots of people about and it's the first time we've ever had to queue at that polling station. Lots of young'uns about, including my 18 year old neighbour, who was adorably nervous about casting his first vote.
posted by threetwentytwo at 11:04 AM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Brexit: Farewell Internationalism?

Nigels against the World
Yet the Leavers are inexorably being dragged towards a vision of Britain without any such formal entanglements. In a speech on 19 April, which was hailed by most of the Brexiters as definitive, Michael Gove finally made it clear that Out means Out. Not tagging along like Norway or Switzerland, not seeking a new and complicated relationship like Canada, not a country member or a candidate member, but OUT. Gove, looking more than ever like a gleeful hamster on steroids, announced that Britain would leave the Single Market, would not seek to be part of EFTA (the organisation that includes Norway, Iceland, Switzerland and Liechtenstein), and would remain a member only of ‘the European Free Trade Zone that stretches from Iceland to the Russian border’. Alas, despite this grandiloquent description, the EFTZ exists largely in the imagination. The UK would be as Out as Bosnia, Serbia and Albania (the signal difference being that Bosnia, Serbia and Albania are all trying to get into the EU). We would be launched on a journey to become a Greater Albania. The prime minister of Albania, Edi Rama, said in response that he was ‘not convinced it would suit either our or Britain’s needs to create this new BBC: the British-Balkan Confederation.
Europe’s Sullen Child - "Would the Brexit debate have played out differently in a calmer, less crisis-ridden Europe? Maybe the threat of the UK leaving the EU would have caused citizens and politicians across Europe to think about ‘ever closer union’ and what it actually means or should mean for them. It’s a nice thought, but in reality virtually nobody in the last ten years or so has been willing to talk about what used to be known as finalité, the purported end-state of European integration."
If We Leave - "It isn’t hard to see the entire process stretching out for years, accompanied by litigation at every step. If the substance of most of our EU-derived laws and regulations stays in place, will Brexit have been worth it for the sake of what is jettisoned? One of the Brexit supporters’ main complaints is the influence of the European Court of Human Rights over UK law. But Brexit would not mark the end of that. Signing up to the European Convention of Human Rights and the jurisdiction of the Strasbourg court is a necessary condition for membership of the EU, but not the other way round: the convention and the court are not under the EU’s control. "
Left wingers for Brexit need to wake up to what they’re about to do
The stunning truth that explains the rise of the far-right in Britain and elsewhere: We're still living in a Depression—and that's giving power to far-right leaders throughout the Western world
Brexit and Trump: When politicians light xenophobic fires, everybody gets burned
more at OMNIVORE
posted by the man of twists and turns at 11:05 AM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]


Oh Steve Bell is quaint with his cartoon.

I expect he has a version of Low's 'Very well, alone' lined up too.
posted by Emma May Smith at 11:06 AM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]




Nick, at FlipChartFairyTales: Why I’m voting Remain
posted by the man of twists and turns at 11:20 AM on June 23, 2016


As I learned during our independence referendum, the pencils in British voting booths are apparently supposed to be wax pencils, which makes them both hard to erase and means that a sealed ballot box can survive getting immersed in water without votes becoming illegible.
posted by Happy Dave at 11:21 AM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]


I wonder if economic panic caused by Brexit will be the kickoff for the next inevitable global recession.
posted by Apocryphon at 11:36 AM on June 23, 2016


There's a photo of Britain's state-of-the-art voting machines here. That one's for the AV referendum of 2011, but today's procedure was identical.
posted by Paul Slade at 11:47 AM on June 23, 2016


I believe that, all said, paper ballots, pencils, and hand counting, is likely the best way to conduct an election.
posted by Emma May Smith at 11:52 AM on June 23, 2016 [7 favorites]


There's a photo of Britain's state-of-the-art voting machines here. That one's for the AV referendum of 2011, but today's procedure was identical.

Australia does the same thing. No worries about hanging chads or mysteriously programmed Diebold machines. Admittedly they lost a box of votes last time, which (rightly) freaked everyone out - but I suspect part of the reason that got such attention is that the system usually works so well.
There are a few exceptions who get to vote electronically - mostly vision-impaired voters, and those stationed in the Antarctic or on overseas military postings.
posted by une_heure_pleine at 12:09 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


I suspect Czechs find it more pleasant to get money by finding scutwork in England than by cleaning up English punter vomit on their own streets.

I live and work in Prague. Generally, they don't bother washing vomit off the streets. Apparently, that's what rain is for.
posted by veedubya at 12:10 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


I voted Leave (by postal vote) about a month ago, so I spent today in a beer garden overlooking the Vltava, drinking lovely Czech beer at just under £1 a pint (or nearest metric equivalent). Sadly, I've misjudged the sun and burnt myself to a glorious crimson.
posted by veedubya at 12:19 PM on June 23, 2016


> I voted Leave (by postal vote) about a month ago

Why? That's not me being snarky, I'm genuinely interested in why you opted for 'leave' as a British person living elsewhere in the EU.
posted by winterhill at 12:24 PM on June 23, 2016


Why? Well...


Here's one case for Leave, without any of the disgusting propaganda.


I'd vote to leave because with the Greek standoff, we've seen the EU prevent Greece from answering the crisis with a repeat of the Worgl Experiment, even though it would help all parties. (TLDR: allowing Greece to issue euro-denominated scrip in order to get some money circulating in the country.)

The Worgl measure is something that American states and municipalities can do at any time, and did do all through the Great Depression. If Brussels is taking away a sovereign prerogative that DC continues to allow the states to exercise at any time, then it's time to reign them in.
posted by ocschwar at 12:34 PM on June 23, 2016


> We don't have to believe that the sun shines out of the Cabinet Office, but we do have to assume that on a basic level, government is on our side and running the country in what it believes is our interests.

I can't tell whether it's because I'm too naïvely idealistic or too naïvely cynical, but this statement does not resonate at all with me — like, it's not that I don't believe it, or don't agree with it, but more that it seems like words without substance to me, words that moreover can never have substance.

To my eye, any democracy worth the name has to be grounded in a solid foundation of deep mutual mistrust, with any process that's not as public and as visible as possible treated as not just potentially compromised, but in fact always presumed to be already actually compromised. Whenever there is significant money or power on the line, the incentives to subvert any process that's open to subversion will invariably result in someone subverting it. "Trust me" is what untrustworthy people say; trustworthy people say something more like "go ahead and take a look for yourself."

That said, of course, the #usepens people definitely seem too naïve about their cynicism; anyone who thinks they can thwart vote tampering by using pens badly needs to step up their paranoia game. Ballot security is serious business, and #usepens treats it like a silly game.
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 12:41 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


I'm genuinely interested in why you opted for 'leave' as a British person living elsewhere in the EU.

Well, as you ask, I'll be honest: I wasn't going to vote because I'm also an Irish citizen, by virtue of a parent, so in or out the result really doesn't affect me much. Apart from Ireland changing the renewal process for a passport which is a bit of a bugger. What pushed me into voting was Obama's interference - that was seriously uncool.

I've voted Leave for two reasons:

Firstly, it's just a gut feeling that the UK doesn't really belong in the EU. There's just a different mindset here. For example, look at all of the exceptions that UK gets. To me that's indicative of hammering a square peg into a round hole.

Secondly, ironically enough, is the racism. By Christ, I've heard some absolutely disgusting stuff in the years that I've lived here. You want to hear something really nasty? Come over here and drop the word 'gypsy' into a conversation with locals. It's chilling. Same with Muslims, or immigrants in general. I personally don't want to be part of a club where that sort of shit is acceptable. I can still remember, with horrible clarity, the conversation that I got dragged into the day after that little boy's body was washed up on a beach. It had been a long time since I'd been that angry or disgusted.
posted by veedubya at 12:42 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


By "here" there, do you mean Prague or the UK?
posted by Grangousier at 12:44 PM on June 23, 2016


Prague. Sorry I didn't make that clear.
posted by veedubya at 12:45 PM on June 23, 2016


Just a side note... Not sure how the Prague thing got started but we're not on the euro here. People don't come here for jobs for the most part. The koruna is pretty devalued. It really wouldn't make sense for someone to come here to work a shitty job and get paid in koruna.
posted by sio42 at 12:46 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


I don't have a shitty job. I'm paid well above average, in CZK.
posted by veedubya at 12:48 PM on June 23, 2016


Awesome! Glad to hear it!
posted by sio42 at 12:49 PM on June 23, 2016


Thought so. Thanks!

there is no way that such an arrangement could be made to work without breaking England up into separate states (something which would meet resistance, as all such plans do).

I don't know - Yorkshire would jump at the chance, probably the South West (assuming you could get Cornwall and Devon to agree for five minutes) too. I suspect the North East could work up enthusiasm and the Midlands could be talked into it. Give Kent any autonomy, though, and they'll declare war on Surrey.
posted by Grangousier at 12:49 PM on June 23, 2016


(Just realised that was like #humblebrag - I didn't mean it that way. Honest!)

sio42, we should meet up.
posted by veedubya at 12:50 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


And I was referring to the people up thread who were making comments about people moving to various capitals for shit jobs bc those jobs pay more or something. Not to the better paying professional jobs.
posted by sio42 at 12:51 PM on June 23, 2016


Ah ok, i see what you mean! /derail

I'll me mail you :)
posted by sio42 at 12:52 PM on June 23, 2016


Man it's gonna be hard to go to sleep. World changing news in the works.
posted by sio42 at 12:56 PM on June 23, 2016


Am at work and on tablet, but the prof. Alan Johnson piece is amazing and I will finish reading it when I get home.
posted by marienbad at 12:57 PM on June 23, 2016


we do have to assume that on a basic level, government is on our side and running the country in what it believes is our interests.

Such an assumption is simply incompatible with also having class analysis of society.

It's not a moral issue. Individuals operating within any system maybe motivated by all sorts of reasons, good or bad, but they are not the issue.
posted by Coda Tronca at 12:59 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


Less than an hour now til the utter collapse of Western civilization...uh...the closing of the polls.
posted by Emma May Smith at 1:02 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


They think it's all over! It is... soon.
posted by veedubya at 1:04 PM on June 23, 2016


Remain now even further ahead in prediction markets.
posted by Coda Tronca at 1:07 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


I suspect the North East could work up enthusiasm

I suspect that's an understatement. When the Scottish Referendum was underway I heard a lot of people here in Northumbria making noises about please may we join in, sorry about the whole Wall misunderstanding.
posted by reynir at 1:40 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


The rain is coming down so heavy in the gloaming you can't hear the cars over the sough. I hope nobody left it til the last minute here.
posted by Emma May Smith at 1:41 PM on June 23, 2016


The trouble with the pencil, paper and piece of string voting machine (which I wholeheartedly favour - I turned up, gave my address, agreed that yes, I was Devonian, and that was that) is it doesn't cope well with unexpected problems. There have been flash floods in SE England today, which have disrupted the trains and left a lot of people stranded away from their registered polling places, and an ATC strike in France which has done much the same. An emergency proxy scheme exists, but doesn't apply here. You can choose to vote by post ahead of time, and lots of people do, but if you didn't do that (I enjoy the little bit of theatre in going to vote) then you're going to lose your franchise.

Which is unfair and, I think, unnecessary - perhaps the emergency proxy system can be extended to allow some form of immediate registration and remote voting by phone, but only when circumstances dictate.

Meanwhile, the weather has been clement in Scotland and we're looking at a 70-80 percent turn-out in a solidly (as far as anyone can tell...) Remain nation.

Goddamn it, twelve minutes to close of play. No exit polls. This is going to be a looooong night. With gin. Lots of gin.
posted by Devonian at 1:48 PM on June 23, 2016


Wines! European wines!
posted by threetwentytwo at 1:52 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


There were active plans for devolution to the North East and Yorkshire not that long ago: they were rejected by local referendum so overwhelmingly that the whole idea died.
posted by Segundus at 1:53 PM on June 23, 2016


sorry
posted by winterhill at 1:57 PM on June 23, 2016 [9 favorites]


Bongggg! Polls are closed.
posted by ZipRibbons at 2:00 PM on June 23, 2016


/factory whistle blows

It's all over but the counting.
posted by fireoyster at 2:01 PM on June 23, 2016


The BBC airing the chimes of Big Ben as the polls close is great. Can CNN please do that in the US instead of their not-so-catchy jingles?
posted by zachlipton at 2:02 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Although, theoretically, people might yet be voting, because they guarantee you the vote if you're in the polling station or the queue to get in at 10:00. Not that I can imagine there being a queue, except that unpleasantness at the last general election.
posted by Grangousier at 2:02 PM on June 23, 2016


If things do go, you know, there, I wonder how many people living south of the border will start fantasising about their regions joining a Greater Scotland.
posted by Sonny Jim at 2:07 PM on June 23, 2016


Looks like Farage is already saying Remain could edge it. For once, please let him be right.
posted by billiebee at 2:12 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


I discussed the "don't have to show ID to vote" thing with someone in the office today.
They were amazed until it was pointed out that sure you can rock up and pretend to be someone else. But when they turn up they will still be able to vote and you've risked almost certain jail time to affect the outcome by about 0.0001%
posted by fullerine at 2:12 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


i haz mah t-shirt
posted by lalochezia at 2:12 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


Four point lead for Remain in on-the-day polls...
posted by Devonian at 2:13 PM on June 23, 2016


Canada on the edge of its seat waiting to learn if they'll have to put up with Mark Millar.
posted by Artw at 2:14 PM on June 23, 2016


According to Sky News, Nigel Farage, the Ukip leader, is saying “it looks like Remain will edge it”.
(Guardian live blog.)
posted by Sonny Jim at 2:15 PM on June 23, 2016


But when they turn up they will still be able to vote and you've risked almost certain jail time to affect the outcome by about 0.0001%

Not a very efficient way to steal a vote. All that seems to accomplish is annoying people.
posted by ZeusHumms at 2:15 PM on June 23, 2016


Gibraltar was 85% turnout. No wonder, their lives are basically going to be utterly fucked if the UK leave the EU.
posted by Talez at 2:15 PM on June 23, 2016


Ian Duncan Smith looking nervous, Nicky Morgan looking confident. Farage already having to state that UKIP isn't going anywhere
posted by brilliantmistake at 2:17 PM on June 23, 2016


Farage already having to state that UKIP isn't going anywhere

Admitting it is the first step, Nigel. Maybe he can give it up as a New Year resolution.
posted by Talez at 2:18 PM on June 23, 2016


Why would Farage concede already when it's going to be so close?? It's making me paranoid.
posted by like_neon at 2:19 PM on June 23, 2016


I don't want to discourage anyone from sitting up drinking all night, but even Farage has thrown in the towel:

Nigel Farage: Looks Like Remain Will Edge It
posted by Coda Tronca at 2:19 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Gibraltar was 85% turnout. No wonder, their lives are basically going to be utterly fucked if the UK leave the EU.

I suspect that Spain would look at Gibraltar with hungry(-ier) eyes in case of Brexit.
posted by dhens at 2:20 PM on June 23, 2016


I'm betting the "close vote" thing was all grand old media bollocks to ensure anyone paid any attention at all to this. Expect the same from Trump v. Clinton.
posted by chavenet at 2:24 PM on June 23, 2016


BBC - YouGov calling Remain 52%, Leave 48%.
posted by billiebee at 2:25 PM on June 23, 2016


I suspect that Spain would eye Gibraltar with hungry(-ier) eyes in case of Brexit.

It's not Spain. It's waking up one morning locked out from a market of 500 million people which has been driving the economic engine of your tiny little rock.
posted by Talez at 2:27 PM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]


The latest secret hedge fund exit poll data: REMAIN 45%, LEAVE 39%, DECALRE WAR 18%.
posted by sfenders at 2:29 PM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]


I suspect that Spain would eye Gibraltar with hungry(-ier) eyes in case of Brexit.

It's not Spain. It's waking up one morning locked out from a market of 500 million people which has been driving the economic engine of your tiny little rock.


Oh, I know that. But I think that the Spain thing would happen, too.
posted by dhens at 2:30 PM on June 23, 2016


Although, theoretically, people might yet be voting, because they guarantee you the vote if you're in the polling station or the queue to get in at 10:00. Not that I can imagine there being a queue, except that unpleasantness at the last general election.

Okay, story time!

They clarified the rule about voting after 10pm because of the 2010 election in Sheffield. That year saw the so-called Cleggmania when the Liberal Democrats, led by Nick Clegg, were polling incredibly well. The Labour Party was tired after thirteen years in government and lots of folk still didn't trust the Conservatives. Cleggmania was especially strong among young people and students. It looked as though the Lib Dems would gain a serious amount of seats and definitely hold the balance of power.

I was a student in Sheffield at the time. I was pretty much the first person in Sheffield Central to vote at 7am, in a little school off West Street. I went to bed after that, knowing that I wanted to stay up all the next night to watch the results. Everybody could see it would be interesting, and as a student I had nothing better to do. Sadly all of my housemates were bloody foreigners and none could be induced to share my interest.

I must have gotten to the student union bar before 10pm as I remember watching the polls close on the giant telly there. There was shortly a live news story about students somewhere in the Sheffield Hallam constituency who were refusing to leave a polling station without being able to vote. Basically, so many people had turned up because of Cleggmania--and Sheffield Hallam was Clegg's seat--that they hadn't all had time to vote before 10pm. I remember seeing the pictures of people on the telly arguing and refusing to leave, and some in the bar were pointing out: "That's Sam!" or "Hey, it's Josh!".

Sometime before 11pm there was a group of guys who came in to the union who had actually been turned away. But they didn't seem overly bitter to be honest, as I think they were mostly Lib Dem voters and knew that Clegg was assured to be returned. I stayed the whole night watching the election there, and despite Cleggmania the Labour cheers seemed much louder than the Lib Dem ones, and even the Conservatives made a pretty good effort.

I was happy anyway because I was a longtime Lib Dem supporter then and it was great to see so many others believing in the same thing. I had even worn yellow tights to show my support. A guy pointed them out and we got chatting. Even though it became clear the Lib Dems hadn't done quite as well as hoped (they didn't win Sheffield Central) I still pulled and we went on a date a few days later. Sadly he was as big a disappointment as Clegg, but at least it only took five days and not five years to get rid.
posted by Emma May Smith at 2:31 PM on June 23, 2016 [10 favorites]




Supposedly Sweden would also seek an exit if Brexit succeeds. Is there a list somewhere with every country that's credibly interested in leaving?
posted by Apocryphon at 2:40 PM on June 23, 2016


Farage has "un-conceded", says ITV. What a fucking joker.
posted by tapeguy at 2:52 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


Farage should be ashamed of himself over the whole conduct of the Brexit campaign, but I assume that since he heads UKIP his shame organ has already been surgically removed.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 2:53 PM on June 23, 2016 [9 favorites]


Oh whew! So he's just being a prat like usual.
posted by like_neon at 2:57 PM on June 23, 2016


Well, given that at the last General Election Farage resigned and then unresigned, flip-flopping is kind of his signature move.
posted by reynir at 2:58 PM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]


This video from Bobby George has made me wonder why we bordered with the rest of the referendum campaigning at all. The only referendum video you need to see.
posted by howfar at 3:02 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


I mean the post-Brexit Johnson-Gove-Farage regime may be a triumph of workers rights and greater democracy but I have a strange feeling that it wouldn't be.

Are you saying it is now? Seriously and with all due respect, you are so far wrong it is untrue.
posted by marienbad at 3:05 PM on June 23, 2016


Yeah. Take a trip to a mining community in England, if you can find one, and tell them how great the EU has been at protecting their labour rights.
posted by veedubya at 3:07 PM on June 23, 2016


Looks like Farage is already saying Remain could edge it.

Phrasing.
posted by MikeKD at 3:10 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


Can anyone explain what "Brex mad" means? I feel like I'm missing something?
posted by threetwentytwo at 3:12 PM on June 23, 2016


Forget it, threetwentytwo, it's the Sun.
posted by chimaera at 3:13 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


You're not alone threetwentytwo. The BBC commentators were perplexed by it too.
posted by zachlipton at 3:14 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


If we stay in the EU, do people on here actually believe things will get better for the poor and the poor workers in the UK, when things have gotten progressively worse over the last 30 years, even while we have been in the EU?

It is ran by Junker who was head of tax haven Luxembourg, where all the corps set up shell companies to screw us over by avoiding tax to the tune of billions over the years. He really has the interests of the poor of Europe at heart! And he calls us traitors for wanting to leave. What a cock.
posted by marienbad at 3:16 PM on June 23, 2016


Forget it, threetwentytwo, it's the Sun.

Saturday's edition of the Sun: "Brexit Fixed! How did we know the result before printing on Friday? Ex-MI5 cleaner gives us the details of how we mysteriously got it right before the polls had even closed."
posted by Talez at 3:18 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


From the Hurry up harry link posted upthread:

"The crisis of the eurozone from 2010 even led to the removal of elected governments and their replacement with compliant technocrats—by the troika of the EU, the European Central Bank, and the IMF. The markets were kept happy, and the euro was kept intact, but the price was high: democracy was ‘discarded like unwanted clothing’ as the BBC Europe editor, Gavin Hewitt, put it in his valuable book The Lost Continent. More: the European welfare state was eroded; deflation, mass unemployment, poverty, and ugly and sometimes violent political populisms disfigured the European landscape.

The political meaning of the appointment of Jean-Claude Juncker as the president of the European Commission (which can draft laws and impose penalties on governments and firms) was this: the European political class and its bureaucracy has decided that the answer to the uprising is –as Angela Merkel says –‘More Europe!’ Jean-Claude Juncker is Mr. More Europe.

A former prime minister of Luxemburg, he is the consummate Euro-insider, a super-centralizer, a true believer in ‘ever-greater union,’ and a man without any record of pushing for more democratic accountability or for reform. He is the man who once attacked Germany as ‘very un-European.’"
posted by marienbad at 3:21 PM on June 23, 2016


If we stay in the EU, do people on here actually believe things will get better for the poor and the poor workers in the UK, when things have gotten progressively worse over the last 30 years, even while we have been in the EU?

I think it will get worse far less slowly than it would without the EU tempering the rightward pull of UK politics. I think prospects for things actually turning around and improving at some point are far better than they would be without.

You're right, business as usual is a problem, and something needs to change. Membership of the EU is not that thing - domestic politics is, most notably Tory and Tory-lite (New Labour) dominance of political discourse. Corbyn is no messiah, but he represents the best realistic chance at movement in the correct direction at least that we've had for a long long time.
posted by Dysk at 3:22 PM on June 23, 2016 [17 favorites]


I believe that we can exit at any time. It doesn't need to be now. It doesn't need to be driven by UKIP and the hard-right part of the Tories. It doesn't have to be without any post-exit planning. It doesn't have to be after having misrepresented the issues to voters.

I could go on but essentially just because we're saying "no" right now, doesn't mean we're saying "no" forever. Let's see what change we can push for. Let's see whether Corbyn can get in, let's see whether we can reverse the negative effects of austerity and regain some perspective and then, if it's still utterly immune to reform, let's make an actual plan and then we can leave.
posted by longbaugh at 3:22 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


If we stay in the EU, do people on here actually believe things will get better for the poor and the poor workers in the UK, when things have gotten progressively worse over the last 30 years, even while we have been in the EU?

I don't believe things will get particularly better for them in the short term, I believe they will have the potential to get better in the medium/long term. However what I do believe is that leaving would be a disaster that would wreck things for the poor in ways the EU won't begin to approach.
posted by SometimeNextMonth at 3:24 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


Can anyone explain what "Brex mad" means? I feel like I'm missing something?

Surely a pun on 'sex mad', playing up the high level of interest in the referendum.
posted by Pink Frost at 3:25 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


If we stay in the EU, do people on here actually believe things will get better for the poor and the poor workers in the UK, when things have gotten progressively worse over the last 30 years, even while we have been in the EU?

This isn't an argument for leaving. The things that have made it worse for poor people (lack of a housing policy, underinvestment in infrastructure, a hostility to our strategic resource industries, etc etc) are almost entirely domestic issues. There's just no argument in "The EU isn't a panacea, therefore we must leave".

I believe we have a better chance of making it better for poor people by not fucking up our economy. I know that it's poor form in some circles to say it, but poor economic performance disproportionately hurts poor people. Especially when you have 3.8 years of Tory government ahead.
posted by howfar at 3:26 PM on June 23, 2016 [10 favorites]


Guardian reporting very high turnout, and seems like most commentators are calling it for Remain.
posted by Pink Frost at 3:26 PM on June 23, 2016


Devonian: "The trouble with the pencil, paper and piece of string voting machine (which I wholeheartedly favour - I turned up, gave my address, agreed that yes, I was Devonian, and that was that) is it doesn't cope well with unexpected problems."

This isn't an inherent problem of pen and paper ballot setups which can setup to accept provisional ballots. Any polling station with power should be able to print off a ballot from any district in a provisional manner (not needed here of course because all the ballots are the same so you could just have a big stack of extras).
posted by Mitheral at 3:27 PM on June 23, 2016


Are you saying it is now?

No, of course not. In an ideal world a good majority of people in this country would not be voting for free market economics on a regular basis but they do so we have to take what we can get.

The EU is in no way a perfect institution and could go much much further but to say it has not protected workers rights is pretty disingenuous, there's the Working Time Directive at the very least.
posted by brilliantmistake at 3:28 PM on June 23, 2016


The problem is, howfar, that all these things, like the wealth and income inequality, have happened while we are in the EU - I am not saying it is the EU's fault, just that being in the EU didn't make a difference, and won't in future - things will continue to get worse even if we stay in, the rich and powerful will see to that.
posted by marienbad at 3:29 PM on June 23, 2016


I mean, the day that the UK pulls left so hard that the EU starts being a barrier to meaningfully progressive politics that would viable and realistic outside its influence, I'll be right there campaigning to leave. We are so so far from that reality, however. Bluntly put, it makes sense to me to get your shit together before you go it alone, at least.
posted by Dysk at 3:29 PM on June 23, 2016 [15 favorites]


I've got this nasty sinus infection that I picked up and won't go away. And the thing is, this sinus infection happened while I have a liver. I'm not saying it's my liver's fault I got this sinus infection, but having a liver didn't make a difference. So I think I'll have my liver removed.
posted by biogeo at 3:33 PM on June 23, 2016 [30 favorites]


The problem is, howfar, that all these things, like the wealth and income inequality, have happened while we are in the EU - I am not saying it is the EU's fault, just that being in the EU didn't make a difference, and won't in future - things will continue to get worse even if we stay in, the rich and powerful will see to that.

...but if it's not the fault of the EU, how is leaving the EU in any way going to contribute to fixing it? Your argument seems to be that it's orthogonal at best.
posted by Dysk at 3:34 PM on June 23, 2016 [6 favorites]


More from the Hurry up harry link - god this is amazing, where has this guy been all my life?

" ‘The same structures that Delors promised to use in the interests of the working class turned out by the time of the 2007–08 financial crash to have been used instead to push through a variety of neoliberal economic and social policies that have only damaged the European working class.’ Hence the near silence on the left during this campaign about the abject misery of Greece, or the trauma of 50% youth unemployment in Spain, or the remarkable pursuit of TTIP.As for leftist Ulrich Beck’s suggestion in German Europe that Southern Europe should consider German neocolonialism a good thing because, hey, this is the ‘best’ generation of Germans ever…well, we have passed over that sort of thing in silence too.

And here is something else we don’t talk about on the left: the impact on workers wages and rents. Listen to The Guardian’s – yes, that’s right, The Guardian’s – money expert, Patrick Collinson, explaining why he is voting Leave:

I know a painter/decorator who has not been able to raise his wages for 15 years. There’s always someone else, he says, willing to work for less. A driver who arrived from Turkey 18 years ago, who says the bus companies used to pay more than £12 an hour, but can now pay £10 or less because they have so many takers (and yes, the irony is noted). A care-home cleaner in a rundown seaside town who reckons her hopes of ever getting more than the minimum wage are zero. Each blames an influx of workers from the EU. Each of them are voting out. Tell them the EU protects workers’ rights and they just laugh.

When companies launch recruitment drives in eastern Europe they blame skills shortages in Britain. Really? If a big business wants to hire, say, drivers on £25 an hour, it will find it can do so easily; what they really mean is that they can’t find people willing to work for £10 an hour or less, with antisocial hours to boot. Meanwhile, workers here rejecting low wages are told they are lazy, chavvy and feckless when they refuse to be part of the so-called ‘jobs factory of Europe’.

Meanwhile, as wages for people in low-income groups are pegged back, rents rise. Many times I interviewed Britain’s biggest buy-to-let landlord, Fergus Wilson, and many times he told me how well he was doing from eastern European migrants, who filled nearly all his properties and kept his rental income booming. Rents in parts of the country are at catastrophic levels, snatching as much as 60% of pay. Migration is only part of the reason why that is happening. But when George Osborne declares house prices will fall by 18% if Britain quits, he’s giving the game away. He is saying membership of the EU keeps prices and rents much higher than they would otherwise be. Young people struggling with ludicrous rents, take note.""
posted by marienbad at 3:35 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


Dysk: see my next comment
posted by marienbad at 3:36 PM on June 23, 2016


Gibraltar declares! 19322 Remain; 823 Leave.

Hopefully that's an indication of things to come!
posted by Quagkapi at 3:37 PM on June 23, 2016


Supposedly Sweden would also seek an exit if Brexit succeeds. Is there a list somewhere with every country that's credibly interested in leaving?

Based on what? Latest poll had 49% for EU, 23% for leave, rest undecided. The only party that wants to leave the EU is the Left Party (formerly communists) with around 7% of the voters in the latest poll, even if I suspect the right fringe might go there if they can make it about immigrants.
posted by effbot at 3:41 PM on June 23, 2016


Nigel Farage is a spiteful little shit.
posted by Talez at 3:45 PM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]


When "left wing" rhetoric comes down to "the immigrants are taking our jobs", I tend to check out. It's not good economics and it's not good solidarity.
posted by howfar at 3:46 PM on June 23, 2016 [10 favorites]


What the link you keep quoting at length (the rest of us can follow links too, you don't need to duplicate the whole thing here) is describing is a failure of housing policy (a sane system of taxation and a removal of subsidies for non-resident property owners) and a failure to set a sensible minimum wage. These are very much internal UK issues, and the biggest drivers of the problems. Once that is addressed, then we can start looking at whether the EU is having a negative effect - at the moment, it's so insignificant relative to internal UK politics as to be irrelevant.
posted by Dysk at 3:50 PM on June 23, 2016 [8 favorites]


marienbad, I haven't read the Harry's Place piece, but I intend to. However, what on Earth makes you think the far-right wing of the Conservative Party - the Leavers - are the people to, for instance, raise the minimum wage, protect workers' rights, or maintain consumer and environmental protections?
posted by Quagkapi at 3:51 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


things will continue to get worse even if we stay in, the rich and powerful will see to that

That is their want, however it would not be the same toboggan ride into inanity that we would have with Boris Johnson at the helm pandering to the 'millionaire fascist' lead UKIP minority.

It is a lot harder to build things than it is to destroy them, but that is what is needed in the UK.

Once again marienbad, the stub end of workers' rights in a UK outside of the EU would be crushed under the heel of a UKIP/Tory alliance. The work needed to undo the destruction currently suffered by the welfare state and NHS is quite enough work for the Labour party, should they be able to get it through the upper house (assuming lower house majority).

Yes, neoliberalism is a crock, whether promoted at European or British government level. There is a huge amount wrong with the European Commission, but it's better than the alternative we are presented with at the moment. If any of these cretins had at least some record of giving a fig for democracy I might feel differently, but the current Leave team are far from being an asset to the collective.

Someone recently pointed out that any negotiation undertaken by a UK outside the EU would be woefully inadequate as the politicians likely to be doing the negotiating would be unable to talk to the governments in their own languages.

I shall just remind people that there are plenty of people whose lives would be seriously detrimentally impacted if we left the EU. This is not a semantic argument.
posted by asok at 3:57 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


Marienbad,amongst other bullshit, he is quoting Fergus fucking Wilson, one half of a couple who have been ludicrously allowed to fucking destroy the housing market of a particular area. No EU involvement required.
posted by threetwentytwo at 3:57 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Gibraltar declares! 19322 Remain; 823 Leave.

Hopefully that's an indication of things to come!


Gibraltar isn't exactly representative.
posted by Emma May Smith at 4:00 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


Newcastle marginally in favour of remain.
posted by edd at 4:01 PM on June 23, 2016


Newcastle marginally in favour of remain.

When polls predicted a large lead in favor of remain (I've seen +11.8 points). It's a scary result.
posted by zachlipton at 4:03 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Scarily close even there. Turnouts higher where there are old electorates. Shit.
posted by jaduncan at 4:04 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


UKIP and Leave: Make Britain White Again!
posted by Talez at 4:07 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


That result certainly made my face considerably whiter than it was beforehand.
posted by jaduncan at 4:09 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


Can anyone explain what "Brex mad" means? I feel like I'm missing something?

British people use 'mad' almost exclusively to mean crazy unlike Americans and Canadians who are more likely to use it to mean angry (but also sometimes to mean crazy).
posted by srboisvert at 4:11 PM on June 23, 2016


Dear Dad,

We heard you're having a fight with Mom and her friends. Just so you know, we think it's best if you stay together, but if you really can't stand it, you're welcome to move in with us for a while.

Sincerely,
Canada
posted by mrjohnmuller at 4:15 PM on June 23, 2016


Market reaction to that Newcastle result was intense on the GBP/USD exchange rate: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Clq9CrWWEAEjIc9.png
posted by jaduncan at 4:16 PM on June 23, 2016


Sunderland races to be first (video 1; video 2). I'm always cheered by watching these.

Sunderland has just declared: 134,400 votes. Remain 51,930; Leave 82,394.

63.0%

It's *JUST* within the abovementioned margin of uncertainty for a dead heat (Leave -1 - +13%), but well above the expected 6% lead for Leave.
posted by Quagkapi at 4:17 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


It's done. Britain will leave the EU.
posted by Talez at 4:18 PM on June 23, 2016 [6 favorites]


I've long found it curious how "Little Englander" has become a term of abuse in the modern sense. The original Little Englanders were abusively named so because of their anti-Empire and anti-colonialism and pro-Home Rule opinions.

I guess you've missed the bit where those anti-Empire and anti-colonialism and pro-Home Rule opinions were driven by the idea of Anglo-Saxon British supremacy; leading Little Englanders like Goldwin Smith were very clear in that any freedom would be limited to colonies with a white English majority who could be trusted to do things correctly, while colonies like India and Ireland, full of inferior people, had to be kept under tight control or god knows what would happen. He also was a raving anti-semite, a full-on racist, didn't think women should vote, etc.
posted by effbot at 4:19 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


Sunderland has just declared: 134,400 votes. Remain 51,930; Leave 82,394.

Put that together with Newcastle and I'm starting to worry Leave will take it.
posted by Pink Frost at 4:20 PM on June 23, 2016


Xenophobia and isolationism have managed to triumph. Congratulations, Nigel you shithead.
posted by Talez at 4:20 PM on June 23, 2016


Holy. Fuck.
posted by jaduncan at 4:20 PM on June 23, 2016


holy fucking shit sunderland not good not good at all
posted by lalochezia at 4:21 PM on June 23, 2016


The people of Sunderland just made a lot of bankers a lot of money judging by how far the value of the pound just fell.
posted by tapeguy at 4:22 PM on June 23, 2016


Solid Labour area, UKIP coming in second last election.
posted by Artw at 4:25 PM on June 23, 2016


BBC Radio 4 interviewing people at Glastonbury, asking them to please not swear because they're live
posted by BungaDunga at 4:29 PM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]


Pound down 6%.
posted by jaduncan at 4:31 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


I'm listening to R4 too; that was hilarious. I probably would have run away as well. It's not your real name, Carol!

* Also, urgh, maths. More like 61% Leave in Sunderland, just to correct myself, sorry. Still an extreme result.
posted by Quagkapi at 4:32 PM on June 23, 2016


What a mess. We're pulling for you, Bremainers.
posted by Existential Dread at 4:32 PM on June 23, 2016 [7 favorites]


Well at least loss of free movement won't matter. We won't be able to afford to leave the country.
posted by howfar at 4:33 PM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]


Gosh, Broadcasting House is a really lovely building.
posted by kalimac at 4:33 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Asshole Sunderland, why are you doing this to us
posted by tel3path at 4:34 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


What a mess. We're pulling for you, Bremainers.

Yeah, especially Dysk and any others who will be directly impacted by this. (Hoping if Brexit goes ahead it doesn't change the status of anyone already in the country. But who knows?).
posted by Pink Frost at 4:35 PM on June 23, 2016




(Hoping if Brexit goes ahead it doesn't change the status of anyone already in the country. But who knows?).

Leave.eu, although not the official campaign, did say that they would honour the status all EU citizens already here and considered them settled. All Leavers I've spoken to agree that that's the right thing to do, though I don't kid myself that it is the opinion of everybody. I personally think we don't have an option but to let them stay.
posted by Emma May Smith at 4:40 PM on June 23, 2016


This feels eerily like watching the last election results coming in; the polls were distinctly wrong then too, and resulted in 5 more years of Tory rule. I'm honestly afraid that leave will take the day; something I never quite believed before tonight.
posted by kalimac at 4:44 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Yay Foyle!!! I have never heard of you until today, but you saved us from Sunderland
posted by tel3path at 4:46 PM on June 23, 2016


It's an NI nationalist area. One would hope so, given that it has a heavy presence of people who want to trade with and travel to and from Ireland.
posted by jaduncan at 4:48 PM on June 23, 2016


I'm depressed as fuck about all this.
posted by dng at 4:49 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


Not sleeping
I have coffee
It's not helping
posted by longbaugh at 4:50 PM on June 23, 2016


Markets in free-fall. That weekly sub to the EU is going to look like such a bargain later today...
posted by Devonian at 4:51 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


I'm increasingly in favour of a Baarle-Nassau solution.
posted by edd at 4:52 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


Betfair has swung from 1:8 Remain to nearly 1:2 in the last hour.
posted by Quagkapi at 4:53 PM on June 23, 2016


Yes. Let's all just remember that "nobody could predict what the actual effect would be" when literally almost every single market participant said it was going to be absolute havoc.
posted by jaduncan at 4:53 PM on June 23, 2016 [6 favorites]


This feels like a lot of people are voting to have their leg amputated because they have a broken arm.
posted by Bloxworth Snout at 4:54 PM on June 23, 2016 [16 favorites]


Rumours of Lewisham showing 83% for remain. That seems high, but I don't know what we have to compare it to, if it's even accurate.
posted by howfar at 4:55 PM on June 23, 2016


I wouldn't panic just yet. Referendums are always won or lost in the Home Counties.
posted by Flashman at 4:56 PM on June 23, 2016


Swindon votes Leave by a 10K margin
posted by longbaugh at 4:57 PM on June 23, 2016


Labour said this, allegedly: "There has been a strong turnout, higher than the general election in many areas. Early indications showing more divergence than we expected - bigger leads than expected for Remain in likely Remain areas but also bigger leads for Leave in likely Leave areas."

It has to be said that none of the Labour party people look at all happy.
posted by jaduncan at 4:58 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Fuuuuuck.
posted by Artw at 4:58 PM on June 23, 2016


I would like to feel optimistic. But I don't. I think we're fucked.
posted by howfar at 4:58 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


An interesting post on the Guardian liveblog pointing out that students have gone back home for holidays but many of the polling models assume they'd be voting at their universities.
posted by zachlipton at 4:58 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Swindon and Broxborne both leave, with large turnouts. But a big turnout in Wandsworth in South London, expected to be strongly for remain.
posted by Pink Frost at 4:58 PM on June 23, 2016


I wouldn't panic just yet. Referendums are always won or lost in the Home Counties.

Well, somewhere called Broxborne--which the BBC says is in the Home Counties--voted for Leave about 2:1.
posted by Emma May Smith at 4:59 PM on June 23, 2016


Uggggggggh, is this what it feels like to watch a close US election from abroad and be unable to affect the outcome when a small group of people clearly want to burn the world down for everyone?
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 4:59 PM on June 23, 2016 [66 favorites]


Fuck you, Swindon and Broxbourne.
posted by tel3path at 5:01 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


psephologist is a word I've literally never heard before, or is it a Grauniadism?
posted by BungaDunga at 5:01 PM on June 23, 2016


I've never voted for the winning candidate (or even the winning party) in any election at any level so far in my life.

So I'm sorry everyone. About everything.
posted by dng at 5:02 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


Very surprised that Scilly voted for remain.
posted by howfar at 5:02 PM on June 23, 2016


Well, perhaps not everyone in Swindon and Broxbourne.
posted by longbaugh at 5:02 PM on June 23, 2016


Huh:
Psephology /sᵻˈfɒlədʒi/ (from Greek psephos ψῆφος, 'pebble', which the Greeks used as ballots) is a branch of political science which deals with the study and scientific analysis of elections.
posted by BungaDunga at 5:02 PM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]


psephologist is a word I've literally never heard before, or is it a Grauniadism?

Psephology has been around since the 1950s. Coined by a friend of Tolkien's as I recall.
posted by Emma May Smith at 5:04 PM on June 23, 2016


Watching the results
posted by chimaera at 5:05 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


Take a breath, folks. It'll be at least three hours before we've got any real idea of the ultimate result.
posted by Paul Slade at 5:05 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


Whoa. Are there any NON US-based 24 hour news channels on TV (e.g. Sky News, Al-Jazeera, etc) where I can watch the results come in? Would rather watch on my actual TV than my laptop.
posted by triggerfinger at 5:06 PM on June 23, 2016


Well, if leave happens, we'll just have to pick ourselves up and fight harder. But I'm so tired of fighting, every single fucking day, to stop these evil pricks from destroying the lives of the poor and the vulnerable. I am sick of the shit I have to wade through and the misery I see. I am fucking sick of having to fight against systems designed to punish people for being unlucky. I am bored of it. But there you go.
posted by howfar at 5:07 PM on June 23, 2016 [8 favorites]


triggerfinger, if you have a Roku, the SkyNews app on there works in the U.S. for their live broadcast. (I don't know about other media streamers.)
posted by fireoyster at 5:08 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Brexit too close to call! All hangs on Florida.

(stolen from a random tweet I saw pass by - made me laugh)
posted by inflatablekiwi at 5:09 PM on June 23, 2016


psephologist is a word I've literally never heard before, or is it a Grauniadism?

It's a real word but not one that people in the field, at least in the US, would use unless they were being intentionally silly and fake-pompous.
posted by ROU_Xenophobe at 5:09 PM on June 23, 2016


Well, perhaps not everyone in Swindon and Broxbourne.

If you can find 10 righteous men in Swindon and Broxbourne, I will not destroy them.
posted by tel3path at 5:09 PM on June 23, 2016 [7 favorites]


triggerfinger, try this?

This Medium post, via The Independent, appears to give some expected results, with confidence intervals, and they match the above Guardian "expectation" margins for Sunderland (column G).

There are several provisos in the post itself about the predictions: they could be wrong.

Here's the full table.
posted by Quagkapi at 5:10 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


And Kettering.

Fuck.
posted by tel3path at 5:10 PM on June 23, 2016


Basildon too.
posted by longbaugh at 5:11 PM on June 23, 2016


psephologist is a word I've literally never heard before, or is it a Grauniadism?

It's a real word but not one that people in the field, at least in the US, would use unless they were being intentionally silly and fake-pompous.


From memory it seems to be quite commonly-used in Indian English: the first time I encountered it was in Indian media coverage of an election there. Interesting to see it spread into more common use in English English.
posted by Pink Frost at 5:12 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Psephology /sᵻˈfɒlədʒi/ (from Greek psephos ψῆφος, 'pebble', which the Greeks used as ballots) is a branch of political science which deals with the study and scientific analysis of elections.

"The avalanche has already started. It is too late for the pebbles to vote." — Kosh, Babylon 5
posted by DevilsAdvocate at 5:13 PM on June 23, 2016 [10 favorites]


Brexit too close to call! All hangs on Florida.

that's actually pretty believable given the volume of British tourists
posted by indubitable at 5:14 PM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]


Sincerely,
Canada


Oh no, I've seen this universe before.
posted by Apocryphon at 5:14 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Please don't get angry at regions. In most of those regions there's still a lot of people whose votes are counting equally, who are voting the way you want. I somewhat expect my region to vote leave, but I'm still proud of it and there've been dedicated volunteers working to get every vote they can for their side.
posted by edd at 5:15 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Angela Eagle is the only one with a lick of fucking sense on the BBC panel right now.
posted by Talez at 5:15 PM on June 23, 2016


Yay Shetland, but it's not enough to save us.
posted by tel3path at 5:16 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


"How can we best shift the blame for exit onto Jeremy Corbyn?"
posted by longbaugh at 5:16 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


I lie awake at night thinking of angry letters to write to regions, and in the morning I write them and then I shred them and I just go no contact with that region.
posted by tel3path at 5:17 PM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]


Based on what? Latest poll had 49% for EU, 23% for leave, rest undecided. The only party that wants to leave the EU is the Left Party (formerly communists) with around 7% of the voters in the latest poll, even if I suspect the right fringe might go there if they can make it about immigrants.

Radio Sweden: Britain's EU debate closely watched by Sweden

My friend tells me it's less about immigration, and more about not wanting to pay to bail out Greece/Italy.
posted by Apocryphon at 5:17 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


Thanks to West Dunbartonshire, we are gaining
posted by tel3path at 5:17 PM on June 23, 2016


Sincerely,
Canada

Oh no, I've seen this universe before.
posted by Apocryphon at 5:14 PM on June 23 [+] [!]


I've been thinking of 1995 except .5% margin and some leaders for the separation blaming immigrants before the polls close. Especially if the final count happens on St. Jean Baptiste...
posted by chapps at 5:18 PM on June 23, 2016


Either Lindsay Lohan's twitter has been hacked or she's as obsessed with the Brexit vote as the rest of us.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 5:18 PM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]


Well, shit. South Tyneside, I'm not angry, just disappointed.
posted by tel3path at 5:20 PM on June 23, 2016


Why are these folks turning out for the EU ref but not against the Tories in the General Election?
posted by longbaugh at 5:23 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


My friend tells me it's less about immigration, and more about not wanting to pay to bail out Greece/Italy.

If the United States had this attitude we'd have a civil war per decade.
posted by Talez at 5:23 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


There was a horrendously depressing comment on the radio earlier that some people apparently didn't even know that Labour were pro-remain.
posted by Quagkapi at 5:26 PM on June 23, 2016


I've been thinking of 1995 except .5% margin and some leaders for the separation blaming immigrants before the polls close. Especially if the final count happens on St. Jean Baptiste...


Yeah, even if Remain wins the day, the Canadian experience tells us you're going to have to wait 20, 30 years before putting a stake in the heart of Brexit.

What happened with Quebec was changing demographics. And many of the issues Quebeckers were upset about, notably language and cultural rights, and jobs, were solved over 20-30 years.
posted by My Dad at 5:26 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


There was a horrendously depressing comment on the radio earlier that some people apparently didn't even know that Labour were pro-remain.

That's largely because the media only ever wanted to talk about Boris Johnson versus David Cameron.
posted by dng at 5:27 PM on June 23, 2016


Drunken 16 year olds doing a vox pop on BBC. Wonderful.
posted by Emma May Smith at 5:29 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


From the Guardian live blog:

You can always tell who is losing on an election night — it’s the side where they start blaming each other.
posted by infinitewindow at 5:31 PM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]


Tories talking about leaving after some time. Fuck that. Stick to your convictions. If they vote leave don't dally. Go to Brussels and invoke article 50 the very next day.
posted by Talez at 5:31 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


It's about immigration. Anyone who tells you differently is not correct. Just talk to ordinary people, and listen to what they say. They aren't talking about Greece, they're talking about migrants.

I know living in a democracy means accepting that sometimes your nation does things for reasons you don't agree with and with consequences you don't want. No matter what, we'll find a way to make it work in the end. But I'm very, very sad that it looks like there's another obstacle in the way.

Chin up. We've been through worse. We'll get through this.
posted by howfar at 5:32 PM on June 23, 2016 [10 favorites]


Labour's media visibility on the issue has been a terrible let down. I diplomatically want to blame the media, who I also blame for the 'faceless EU bureaucrats' who are only faceless because people haven't had their faces shoved in front of them.
posted by edd at 5:32 PM on June 23, 2016


Mary Beard: The Long Wait
posted by the man of twists and turns at 5:33 PM on June 23, 2016


TBH, it will be hard not to resent areas where polling data said immigration was the primary factor, especially when those areas have low actual immigration rates. Racism is impossible to respect.
posted by jaduncan at 5:33 PM on June 23, 2016 [13 favorites]


I'll have to hope if we do leave, we leave fast, suffer terribly, and the EU accepts us back as a lesson to the rest of us.
posted by edd at 5:35 PM on June 23, 2016


Corbyn does nuance. John Punter doesn't appear to do so. I totally understand why they didn't put him front and centre.
posted by longbaugh at 5:35 PM on June 23, 2016


Fear, greed and hate have won today.
posted by Talez at 5:36 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


When the UK ends up negotiating back into the EEA and has to accept freedom of movement aren't the racists going to be awfully disappointed?
posted by BungaDunga at 5:36 PM on June 23, 2016


They're racist. Horrible disappointment at the failure of their worldview is their unavoidable destiny.
posted by edd at 5:37 PM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]


As I kept saying to folks, if we leave we'll dump as much anti-ACC stuff as they can get away with. Never mind 300,000 immigrants, make that 300 million. Even if you're a racist shithead, it still makes sense to stay.
posted by longbaugh at 5:39 PM on June 23, 2016


We Are All Trump Now.
posted by Justinian at 5:39 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


University of East Anglia is doing rolling predictions on Medium

Predicted probability of Britain Remaining: 0.55
(10 of 382 areas reporting.)
Predicted vote share for Remain: 50.2 percent.
(90% prediction interval: 45.1 to 54.9 percent)
posted by BungaDunga at 5:40 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


Dundee, 60% Remain, 40% Leave - Guardian (Libby Brooks) earlier said "I’m also told to look out for surprisingly high leave votes in solid SNP areas like Dundee and Inverclyde; perhaps prompting some soul-searching for the party’s high command". Not sure if 40% counts as high?
posted by paduasoy at 5:40 PM on June 23, 2016


Other European countries need to seriously think about how they raise awareness of what exactly is funded, what exactly is protected, and what exactly is prevented by the EU. It's a good thing, but the media isn't covering the good things they do well enough.
posted by edd at 5:42 PM on June 23, 2016


that's actually pretty believable given the volume of British tourists

What happened to Watney's Red Barrel and TORRRREY MEEELINOS
posted by snuffleupagus at 5:45 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


When UK citizens have to apply for a visa weeks in advance and wait in the "other citizens" line to get to a bachelor party in Amsterdam, the racists are going to be awfully disappointed.
posted by zachlipton at 5:45 PM on June 23, 2016 [21 favorites]


Basildon - 38714 Remain, 67251 Leave
posted by longbaugh at 5:46 PM on June 23, 2016


I feel like their primary disappointment is going to be when they finally work out that our obligations under the 1951 Refugee Convention have fuck all to do with the EU.
posted by jaduncan at 5:47 PM on June 23, 2016 [25 favorites]


Basildon was always going to be a high leave area.
posted by edd at 5:48 PM on June 23, 2016


I don't know. US citizens can go to the Netherlands for up to 90 days without a visa. UK citizens will have to wait in the annoying line, but I'd be surprised if they needed visas for a short visit.

I think this will be a disaster in all sorts of big and small ways, but that's probably not one of them.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 5:48 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Many of fhe Leave banners I've seen have been accompanied by England flags. Which, as opposed to Scotland or Wales flags, is to be expected in England. But I notice a pattern in the majority Remain areas.
posted by tel3path at 5:50 PM on June 23, 2016


Is the line that bad usually? Last couple times I went to Schipol there was basically no line (as an American doing 90 day visa on arrival). They barely even looked at my passport.
posted by thefoxgod at 5:50 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Isn't there still five hours until the final results are in? Why are people panicking and conceding already. Has no one learned anything from the U.S. primary threads. Why decide before the votes are counted. Why.
posted by Apocryphon at 5:51 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


No-one is deciding anything, and conceding is irrelevant. We're just worried. (Maybe even very worried)

But worry is a pretty normal reaction. It'd be weird not to worry, surely, about something so important.
posted by dng at 5:53 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


Many of fhe Leave banners I've seen have been accompanied by England flags. Which, as opposed to Scotland or Wales flags, is to be expected in England. But I notice a pattern in the majority Remain areas.

There was some analysis, from where I do not know, which showed that English identity was tightly linked to Leave while British identity was likewise linked to Remain.
posted by Emma May Smith at 5:53 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


Has no one learned anything from the U.S. primary threads.

Have you seen the repetitive mod notes on those threads? NO ONE HAS LEARNED ANYTHING FROM THEM.
posted by infinitewindow at 5:54 PM on June 23, 2016 [38 favorites]


I think given the choice, England would like to leave the UK, but only if it could retain control over Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.
posted by tel3path at 5:55 PM on June 23, 2016 [20 favorites]


From UEA:
01:46 Third forecast update
Predicted probability of Britain Remaining: 0.32 (15 of 382 areas reporting.)
People are panicking because the odds have swing from 70/30(ish) to 30/70 and have kept moving in that direction. The 15 areas are expected to correlate (in admittedly complicated ways) with all the others, so they provide a lot of information, even though they're a tiny proportion.
posted by BungaDunga at 5:57 PM on June 23, 2016


I think given the choice, England would like to leave the UK, but only if it could retain control over Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

The UK was a way of appeasing Scotland. It has always, always been English policy to dominate Scotland, Ireland, and Wales as far as possible and by any means. And by 'always' I mean since Alfred or before.
posted by Emma May Smith at 5:58 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


I don't know. US citizens can go to the Netherlands for up to 90 days without a visa. UK citizens will have to wait in the annoying line, but I'd be surprised if they needed visas for a short visit.

Sure, but admission without a visa for short visits would require a reciprocal agreement between the UK and the EU. The EU is presumably going to insist that agreement cover the entire EU, not just the countries the UK likes more (this has been a big sticking point with the US lately) and it could quickly become ugly.
posted by zachlipton at 6:01 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


Oh Swansea. Not you too :(
posted by longbaugh at 6:04 PM on June 23, 2016


Way to live up to your reputation, Merthyr.
posted by kalimac at 6:07 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Pound plummeting again.
posted by Emma May Smith at 6:08 PM on June 23, 2016


All the major stock markets and futures markets have plummeted in the last few minutes.
posted by dirigibleman at 6:09 PM on June 23, 2016


Hurray, City of London!
posted by Flashman at 6:12 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Economic decline breeds Nazis, Nazis breed economic decline. We're in for some fun times.
posted by Artw at 6:13 PM on June 23, 2016 [9 favorites]


I actually wonder if the EU would deliberately make things hard for British people with respect to things like travel, just as a warning to citizens of other countries who might get similar ideas.

I can't even imagine what anyone is going to do about Ireland and Northern Ireland. I imagine that the EU smoothed over a lot of cross-border issues that are now going to have to be confronted explicitly.
Hurray, City of London!
How many people live in the City of London?
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 6:14 PM on June 23, 2016


Hurray, City of London!

In any other context, seeing that sentiment on MeFi would make me question my sanity
posted by BungaDunga at 6:14 PM on June 23, 2016 [20 favorites]


Wikipedia to the rescue! About 7000 people live in the City of London. Who knew?
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 6:15 PM on June 23, 2016


In any other context, seeing that sentiment on MeFi would make me question my sanity

Hah, exactly.

There are about 7000 voters in the Square Mile, if I remember correctly.
posted by kalimac at 6:16 PM on June 23, 2016


I can't even imagine what anyone is going to do about Ireland and Northern Ireland. I imagine that the EU smoothed over a lot of cross-border issues that are now going to have to be confronted explicitly.

Several are now guarantees; if Leave win we've possibly just set up the death of the the Good Friday agreement.
posted by jaduncan at 6:16 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


"Win or lose we made our point"

Buddy, if the leave vote goes through you haven't made a point. You've essentially thrown the fucking world into chaos for a couple of years.
posted by Talez at 6:16 PM on June 23, 2016 [22 favorites]


"Not as complicated as the politicians are saying"

Immortal last fucking words.
posted by Talez at 6:17 PM on June 23, 2016 [7 favorites]


The University of East Anglia's most recent rolling forecast:

02:08 Fourth forecast update

This is a big update, and I'm conscious that I may have made a terrible mistake somewhere in estimating differential turnout, but here goes:

Predicted probability of Britain Remaining: 0.03
(33 of 382 areas reporting.)
Predicted vote share for Remain: 47.5 percent.
(90% prediction interval: 45.5 to 49.6 percent)

posted by crazy with stars at 6:18 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Yes, Arron Banks who is "not a nice man" by any definition.
posted by longbaugh at 6:18 PM on June 23, 2016


I actually wonder if the EU would deliberately make things hard for British people with respect to things like travel, just as a warning to citizens of other countries who might get similar ideas.

Germany's Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble has explicitly said that's what's going to happen. He was talking about single market access and not travel, but it's clear at least Germany wants the UK to feel the pain if they leave the EU.
posted by Sangermaine at 6:19 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Oh goddamn it Britain.
posted by biogeo at 6:19 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


Stupid question time: This is ultimately going to come down to a total for/against tally all across the nation, right? It's not some silly thing like the US electoral college where we're counting the number of areas as wins or losses rather than the raw vote totals...correct?
posted by scaryblackdeath at 6:20 PM on June 23, 2016


Holy shit
posted by triggerfinger at 6:20 PM on June 23, 2016


Correct.
posted by jaduncan at 6:20 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


About 7000 people live in the City of London. Who knew?

That's one regiment of Beefeaters.
posted by Flashman at 6:21 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


Yes, it's different outside the USofA, where we've been semi-protected against REAL democracy for 230 years
posted by oneswellfoop at 6:21 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


More pressure for Labour to accept responsibility for the Leave result on the Beeb.
posted by longbaugh at 6:21 PM on June 23, 2016


Stupid question time: This is ultimately going to come down to a total for/against tally all across the nation, right?

Yes, exactly.
posted by BungaDunga at 6:22 PM on June 23, 2016


Stupid question time: This is ultimately going to come down to a total for/against tally all across the nation, right? It's not some silly thing like the US electoral college where we're counting the number of areas as wins or losses rather than the raw vote totals...correct?

It is a national vote. All votes in one pot for one result.
posted by Emma May Smith at 6:22 PM on June 23, 2016


And it's not actually a binding national vote. Technically the government could ignore it (I'm sure Cameron would like to). But it would be political suicide to do so.
posted by Pink Frost at 6:23 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


I've never been to the UK but always wanted to go, having been raised in the US on BBC programs and stuff. Even though I don't know your country half as well as I'd like to, this makes me just so very sad.
posted by lazaruslong at 6:23 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


For Cameron even holding the referendum was political suicide.
posted by dng at 6:24 PM on June 23, 2016 [8 favorites]


it would be political suicide to do so.

Cameron is toast no matter which way the vote goes.
posted by My Dad at 6:24 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


"I've never been to the UK but always wanted to go"

Well, good news, your UK vacation is about to get quite a bit cheaper.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 6:25 PM on June 23, 2016 [51 favorites]


Predicted probability of Britain Remaining: 0.03

holy fuck, what happened?
posted by snuffleupagus at 6:25 PM on June 23, 2016


Is it possible this could cause the government to fall, leading to new Parliamentary elections?
posted by Chocolate Pickle at 6:26 PM on June 23, 2016


Terrifying to think who is going to negotiate our exit treaty...
posted by patricio at 6:26 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


yay glasgae!!! show those stupid sassenachs their errors!
posted by lalochezia at 6:26 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Oh oh oh Britain is going to negotiate the best deal they can!

"Hey buddy, fuck you! By the way, buy my shit still?"

Good luck with that.
posted by Talez at 6:26 PM on June 23, 2016 [13 favorites]


Well, good news, your UK vacation is about to get quite a bit cheaper.

Unfortunately, you'll probably lose your job in the recession.
posted by dirigibleman at 6:26 PM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]


Cameron is toast no matter which way the vote goes.

And yet I can't quite trust him to fall on his sword for the good of the country.
posted by kalimac at 6:27 PM on June 23, 2016


Lambeth is 111,584 remain, 30,340 leave. God, I love inner London.
posted by jaduncan at 6:27 PM on June 23, 2016 [8 favorites]


And Exeter! 55% remain.
posted by paduasoy at 6:28 PM on June 23, 2016


Is it possible this could cause the government to fall, leading to new Parliamentary elections?

Possible, but it will take a course of events over weeks and months, not days.
posted by Emma May Smith at 6:28 PM on June 23, 2016


Professor Michael Thrasher, the Sky News number cruncher, says that as things stand it looks as if leave is heading for an 12-point lead.
I'm oddly comforted by this. It coming down to a hanging chad (or whatever) would be so infuriating. At least Britain is decidedly stepping off the plank, rather than just barely wobbling off.

Still, uggggh
posted by BungaDunga at 6:28 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Cameron is toast no matter which way the vote goes.

I would have said he's toast if it's Leave, although a number of Tories including Boris, wrote to him asking him to stay on no matter what. If it's Remain, I think he's fine.

Is it possible this could cause the government to fall, leading to new Parliamentary elections?

Possibly? I don't think anyone can say. But I'd say more likely the PM resigns, which wouldn't lead to new elections. The Tories just elect a new leader and she or he becomes PM. [Plus the UK has fixed-term Parliaments now, so not exactly sure how they could have new elections. And at work so don't have time to look it up]
posted by Pink Frost at 6:29 PM on June 23, 2016


The table is shifting now that London & the southeast results are starting to come in.
posted by Flashman at 6:30 PM on June 23, 2016


Is it possible this could cause the government to fall, leading to new Parliamentary elections?

Depends on what happens with the Tory electoral fraud investigations. They could lose their 12 seat majority in that case and then it's a free for all.
posted by longbaugh at 6:31 PM on June 23, 2016


What the fuck happens to London after this?

Britain's economy seems to be heavily predicated on London being a major financial center. Dropping out of the EU basically gives those industries little reason to remain.
posted by schmod at 6:31 PM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]


Huh. Maybe rather than Scottish independence, what this suggests is that it's time to think about partitioning England.

(I'm joking. But let's face it: it's probably what Britain would have done if Britain were a British colony.)
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 6:32 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


Is it possible this could cause the government to fall, leading to new Parliamentary elections?

Hard to see that - given the new fixed terms for parliament it's difficult to get a snap election. Need a vote of no confidence or 2/3 vote of parliament. Given result UKIP gains seem likely which none of the other parties want.
posted by patricio at 6:32 PM on June 23, 2016


What the fuck happens to London after this?

We move more towards being quasi-offshore, I would guess.
posted by jaduncan at 6:32 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


London is fabulous. I'm not a resident, but I travelled through it this morning and it was visibly in. Admittedly In were handing out stickers everywhere, but they were uncountable in a long (delayed by weather) journey, and Out was a very countable 3.
posted by edd at 6:32 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


I don't like the fact that the vote counter Guardian live blog is using Cameron and Johnson as the literal faces of Remain and Leave, respectively. This is not a parliamentary contest, nor (in theory) a personality contest.
posted by dhens at 6:33 PM on June 23, 2016 [7 favorites]



Cameron is toast no matter which way the vote goes.

Cameron Toast Crunch
posted by asockpuppet at 6:33 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


I bet it'll be good for Dublin, though.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 6:33 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Remain's in the lead again (for now)
posted by triggerfinger at 6:33 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


There's some guy hollering "yuuuhhh" after the announcement of each district Leave victory and I swear it's the exact same dude every time
posted by theodolite at 6:34 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Seeing the current results (2.4M leave, 2.5M remain) is fucking terrifying because it means the question of "Would a country destroy its own economy for the sake of xenophobia?" is not remotely as clear-cut as I thought it would be.
posted by 0xFCAF at 6:35 PM on June 23, 2016 [37 favorites]


Betting markets are back to 60% remain, fwiw...
posted by condour75 at 6:36 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Good god! my blood pressure cannot handle this!
posted by ramix at 6:37 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


The betting markets are basically just looking at the vote tracker on the BBC and following that.
posted by dng at 6:38 PM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]


Huh, really?

None of us are going to get any sleep tonight, are we?

(Guys: I have a weird, vertigo-inducing migraine, and I have taken migraine medication, and I have also had a glass of wine. And this is all very nuts. I apologize if I am totally incoherent and/or loopy.)
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 6:38 PM on June 23, 2016


"not remotely as clear-cut as I thought it would be."

History suggests: often very clear cut.
posted by jaduncan at 6:38 PM on June 23, 2016


The currency markets are doing the same thing. The candlestick charts started going all-green as soon as Glasgow was called.
posted by chimaera at 6:39 PM on June 23, 2016


Now would be a good time to buy some pounds
posted by Flashman at 6:39 PM on June 23, 2016


The betting markets are basically just looking at the vote tracker on the BBC and following that.

I think the stock and commodities markets are doing the same thing.
posted by dirigibleman at 6:39 PM on June 23, 2016


Blimey, Remain is ahead. Well, while I'm typing this.

Yeah, apropos of "yuuuhhh" I've never forgotten the bookstore I used to frequent at lunchtimes and these two women would often come in and one of them would be chattering and the other would signal her agreement by saying, "EeeYUUUUURh. EeeYUUUUURh. EeeYUUUUURh. EeeYUUUUURh. EeeYUUUUURh. EeeYUUUUURh. EeeYUUUUURh." Always the same pattern of seven consecutive donkey-brays, and I counted fifteen sets on average per five- to seven-minute visit. It is probably relevant that the bookstore was in Sloane Square.

Of course, under the new EU legislation this would not be allowed.
posted by tel3path at 6:40 PM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]


Hold the line!
posted by drezdn at 6:40 PM on June 23, 2016


Hard to see that - given the new fixed terms for parliament it's difficult to get a snap election.

Fixed election laws don't override Westminster parliamentary procedures. The government can still fall anytime, and an election be called, via a vote of non-confidence. Canada has had fixed election laws at both the federal level and in various provinces for about a decade, and there have still been snap elections. All a fixed election law does is short circuit the governing party's right to schedule a vote at a time most favourable to them.

But in this specific situation, it's not at all implausible that enough hard-right Conservatives could break with Cameron in a non-confidence motion.

But the more likely scenario is an internal Conservative Party putsch that force Cameron from power and puts a new party leader (and Prime Minister) in place. The scary thing is the new PM could be much further to the right, with that wing emboldened by an Leave win.
posted by dry white toast at 6:40 PM on June 23, 2016


American tuning in to results. Our PBS affiliate carried the BBC World News for an hour which had pretty good coverage and graphics. Now we're stuck with the SkyNews Roku channel and omgggg it's so bad. It's like going from watching Gwen Ifill to Wolf Blitzer.
posted by mostly vowels at 6:40 PM on June 23, 2016


Cameron is toast no matter which way the vote goes.

The one silver lining if Leave happens is that Cameron will forever be remembered as the pigfucker who destroyed the greatest hope of cooperation on the continent which had previously caused the two most devastating wars in human history.

Jesus fuck.
posted by tavegyl at 6:41 PM on June 23, 2016 [30 favorites]


Wandsworth 75% remain.
posted by jaduncan at 6:43 PM on June 23, 2016


Big-boob twitter is suggesting that people buy things from British bra emporium Bravissimo because the pound is so low.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 6:43 PM on June 23, 2016 [6 favorites]


Is there any explanation for why Wales appears to be all-in for Leave? I was under the impression that Wales might vote more in line with Northern Ireland and Scotland (and indeed, might also be a candidate for an independence referendum of their own).
posted by palindromic at 6:46 PM on June 23, 2016


American tuning in to results. Our PBS affiliate carried the BBC World News for an hour which had pretty good coverage and graphics. Now we're stuck with the SkyNews Roku channel and omgggg it's so bad. It's like going from watching Gwen Ifill to Wolf Blitzer.

I, uh, hear that there are sites you can find with a simple google search that have bootleg streams of BBC 1.
posted by zachlipton at 6:46 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


Fixed election laws don't override Westminster parliamentary procedures.

I seem to recall we discussed this in the last UK election thread, and there's some thought that the UK fixed-term laws are written very poorly?
posted by Pink Frost at 6:48 PM on June 23, 2016


I, uh, hear that there are sites you can find with a simple google search that have bootleg streams of BBC 1.

If anyone has CNN International, they're covering live also.
posted by dnash at 6:48 PM on June 23, 2016


If the UK is absorbed into the EU the way things are going, all of Europe will ultimately be economically controlled by London. (Okay, that's an argument FOR Leave, just not one FOR England)

The UK hasn't been successfully invaded since Willam of Orange.

And no attempts made since Adolph of Germany. That WILL eventually change if UK is not part of EU.
posted by oneswellfoop at 6:48 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


there's some thought that the UK fixed-term laws are written very poorly

Poorly written laws are one of our proudest traditions.
posted by dng at 6:49 PM on June 23, 2016 [9 favorites]


I'm watching the stream straight on the BBC news website. But now I wonder if I'm not supposed to be.
posted by chimaera at 6:49 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


And no attempts made since Adolph of Germany. That WILL eventually change if UK is not part of EU.

Leaving the EU doesn't mean leaving NATO. (Or will the US have to join the EU, too?)
posted by Chocolate Pickle at 6:49 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


UKIP MP Paul Nuttall: "If we lose, and it is only going to be very tight ... Anger is a very powerful emotion in politics and people, I think, will come to Ukip in their droves".
posted by paduasoy at 6:51 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Is there any explanation for why Wales appears to be all-in for Leave?

I get the sense that it's largely a result of a lot of anger at the current government and is a viewed as a way to kick them one but good. (cf Leanne Woods at the vote count in Cardiff -- Guardian has the video and a write-up in their liveblog, though it's a way's back now.) Most of Wales is...not great, economically, and there's a great deal of anger particularly at immigrants. (As someone who lived as an immigrant in Wales -- even an 'acceptable' one, being White and English-speaking -- never underestimate the level of racism there.)

Note that this is despite the huge amounts of money Wales gets from the EU. These are people seriously determined to make a point, even if it involves shooting themselves in the foot.
posted by kalimac at 6:53 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


UKIP MP Paul Nuttall: "If we lose, and it is only going to be very tight ... Anger is a very powerful emotion in politics and people, I think, will come to Ukip in their droves".

So, either way, more Nazis? What a rosy vision of the future.
posted by His thoughts were red thoughts at 6:53 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]



UKIP MP Paul Nuttall: "If we lose, and it is only going to be very tight ... Anger is a very powerful emotion in politics and people, I think, will come to Ukip in their droves".


FUCK YOU YOU FEARMONGERING FASCIST FUCK
posted by lalochezia at 6:53 PM on June 23, 2016 [36 favorites]


People on here saying that people in the UK are anti immigration are racist are so far out of line it is unreal. People are anti immigration as it has impacted negatively on their lives, something most people on here don't have to contend with, as mostly on here you all have nice, middle class jobs, you are not fighting for a job against immigrant labour.

There are people whose children are stuck on the dole and can't get work, meanwhile there are thousands of immigrants in their town who have jobs. Their children can't find a place to live as all the HMOs are full of immigrants, and due to the strain on the property market, rents are skyrocketing.

There are people who have lost jobs and been replaced by immigrant labour - I worked somewhere many years ago, and a few years after I left I saw someone who had been there when I was there, she was now working in a shop, and she said all the British had been replaced by Polish, and she won't be the only person with that sort of story. There are a million and a quarter people on the dole, and have been since mass immigration began, and the number has never gone below a million, and yet you all expect these people to be in favour of immigration? If you were stuck on the dole and had to watch as immigrants flooded into the country and you still couldn't get a job, try to imagine how that would make you feel.

Here is a story from my life: I got a job with an agency, the woman in the agency was Polish. There were 3 of us who got started. At the end, as we were leaving, 3 Polish guys came in and spoke to her in Polish. We started a couple of days later and then after 3 days the Polish guys from the agency turned up and we were finished. I knew someone who worked there and they said yeah, the 3 Poles got your jobs. Now imagine how many people have suffered similar fates.

Surely the duty of the state is to care for it's people, to provide jobs for them, but we aren't allowed to do that in the UK, we have to have a million or more poor, working class people on the dole because the EU says we have to have mass immigration. Can you understand why people are angry? It is fuck all to do with racism, and all to do with the reductions in opportunity for the working class, forced upon us by the EU.

Further, now that the people who have come her have had children, people can't get their children into the schools they want as the required amount of infrastructure to meet the demand has not been made - and wont be made as the corporations no longer pay any tax, and the rich avoid it on a massive scale, so there is not the money for it. There is almost no way for the poorest now to climb out of poverty, because they are struggling to make ends meet, they have to chose between heating and eating due to wage stagnation caused by immigration. So please, enough with the "you are all racist" - your lives have not been impacted in the same way as the lives of the poor. Immigration doesn't benefit the poorest, it benefits the rich and powerful, that is why they are in favour of it (do you really think they said "How can we make the poor peoples lives better? I know, mass immigration" - really? No, they did this to fuck us over and it has worked, and the left and the media and the academics are cheerleading them on, just like Chomsky said.
posted by marienbad at 6:53 PM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]


Anger is a very powerful emotion in politics and people, I think, will come to Ukip in their droves.

Huh, so your xenophobic dickbag politicians make Kinsley gaffes, too.
posted by tonycpsu at 6:54 PM on June 23, 2016


Also the government could fall if enough MPs go to the 1922 committee and say they want to give a vote of no confidence in the government (I think, I'm sure some politics wonk will clarify.)
posted by marienbad at 6:55 PM on June 23, 2016


Liverpool votes to remain (58/42) <3
posted by triggerfinger at 6:56 PM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]


So I hate to be That Guy, but I can't help but see some degree of analogy between the Leave vote in the UK and Trump support in the USA. In both countries the White working class is the base of support for a campaign against received wisdom of how politics and economics are supposed to work, largely out of a nihilistic sense that screwing over the elites is worth taking an economic hit.

It's really none of my business as I'm not British, European, or otherwise affected directly by this vote, but I find myself rooting for Brexit out of some most likely foolish optimism that a big shakeup in the Western system could lead to positive changes.

Best of luck to all in the UK and Europe tonight, whichever way this goes.
posted by 3urypteris at 6:57 PM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]


"And no attempts made since Adolph of Germany. That WILL eventually change if UK is not part of EU."

Oh please, who is going to try to invade us? Spain? This is scaremongering nonsense, we will still be in NATO.
posted by marienbad at 6:58 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]



There are people whose children are stuck on the dole and can't get work, meanwhile there are thousands of immigrants in their town who have jobs. Their children can't find a place to live as all the HMOs are full of immigrants, and due to the strain on the property market, rents are skyrocketing.


Show me the actual stats behind your anecdote. Where are these "thousands of immigrants" in their town that stole your jobs? (if its a town do you really think there are thousands???) Where is the evidence that immigrants, (rather than property speculators) cause the property prices to rise?

You may not be "a racist" but you are promulgating unsupported statements that AID RACISTS AND XENOPHOBES. You are functionally supporting racism.
posted by lalochezia at 6:59 PM on June 23, 2016 [66 favorites]


Stupid American question filter: I am familiar with freedom of movement within the EU in terms of work and residency, but how does this affect *voting*? In other words, could a Polish citizen who is living and working in Britain vote in the referendum? Or is voting restricted to British citizens?
posted by mostly vowels at 6:59 PM on June 23, 2016


In other words, could a Polish citizen who is living and working in Britain vote in the referendum? Or is voting restricted to British citizens?

No, and no ;)

For some reason, EU citizens can't vote in UK elections. However citizens of (some?) Commonwealth nations can - for example as a New Zealander I could and did vote in UK elections.
posted by Pink Frost at 7:01 PM on June 23, 2016


In other words, could a Polish citizen who is living and working in Britain vote in the referendum? Or is voting restricted to British citizens?

Only Commonwealth citizens residing in the UK and UK citizens who have been abroad less then fifteen years.
posted by Talez at 7:01 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


The official Beeb stream is not region locked for me right now.
posted by BungaDunga at 7:02 PM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]


My telly just turned itself off for some reason. Good riddance.
posted by dng at 7:03 PM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]


Graph of UK unemployment jan 2004 - apr 2015

So you are saying there aren't thousands of immigrants here with jobs? Really? Come to my town, I'll take you to Diam, and other places on the industrial estate full of immigrant labour.
posted by marienbad at 7:03 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


EU immigration doesn't seem to be causing problems where my parents live. It's saving a suburb of an unloved town that was in decline, and I don't hear too much that's bad, in the wide cross section of people I meet. The poorest people are very adaptable because everything changes so much. And there's plenty of places in Britain where there's no pressure in housing.

It's a little further up the ladder where people are feeling insecure, and not equipped with enough information about how to make themselves secure, or even a pathway to that information.
posted by ambrosen at 7:04 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


I have a lot of sympathy for the Brexit - but I also agree that much of the sentiment is the same as the Trump sentiment.
posted by corb at 7:04 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


People are anti immigration as it has impacted negatively on their lives

No. They are worse off economically than they were 20/30/40 years ago, and they are choosing to blame immigration. Those are different things.
posted by dry white toast at 7:04 PM on June 23, 2016 [68 favorites]


So you are saying there aren't thousands of immigrants here with jobs? Really? Come to my town, I'll take you to Diam, and other places on the industrial estate full of immigrant labour.

Migrants also expand the economy. Your fallacy is assuming that a fixed number of jobs exist.
posted by jaduncan at 7:05 PM on June 23, 2016 [13 favorites]



So you are saying there aren't thousands of immigrants here with jobs?


You said "meanwhile there are thousands of immigrants in their town who have jobs". Town singular. Not country. TOWN.

Show me this town with thousands of immigrants that have taken tbousands of jobs from your friends. .I call BULLSHIT. Classic fear-mongering. Why not just call them cockroaches and get it over with?
posted by lalochezia at 7:05 PM on June 23, 2016 [24 favorites]


Only Commonwealth citizens residing in the UK and UK citizens who have been abroad less then fifteen years.

And resident Irish citizens.
posted by Emma May Smith at 7:06 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]



Oh please, who is going to try to invade us? Spain?


A seed is planted in Philip XXXV's mind.
posted by drezdn at 7:06 PM on June 23, 2016 [6 favorites]


(I'm assuming you don't complain on a similar basis when British mothers have babies).
posted by jaduncan at 7:06 PM on June 23, 2016 [6 favorites]


Oh please, who is going to try to invade us? Spain? This is scaremongering nonsense, we will still be in NATO

So is Spain. But even in some fantastic prepper-fantasy Clancy-Dale-Peters-Ringo technothriller NATO schism scenario the US and Canada would not tolerate a Spanish (lol) invasion of the UK.

I'm imagining an axis of Spain, Italy and Greece, organized around annihilating its enemies.....tomorrow morning.

At least we get the old Dad jokes back, right? sob
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:06 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


"Graph of UK unemployment jan 2004 - apr 2015"

... your graph shows functionally full employment. Unemployment doesn't really go below 5% in modern economies.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 7:06 PM on June 23, 2016 [13 favorites]


so why are there British people on the dole then? If the economy has expanded, why has unemployment among brits not gone below a million?
posted by marienbad at 7:07 PM on June 23, 2016


Graph of UK unemployment jan 2004 - apr 2015

And if you go back earlier you see that unemployment was much higher in the early 80s (Thatcherism) and the early 90s (recession). It then shot up in 2008 because of the Lehman Brothers collapse and market turmoil and then (by your figures) fell again. Nothing correlated with immigration at all.
posted by Pink Frost at 7:07 PM on June 23, 2016 [33 favorites]




Whaaa...? You mean I could vote in the UK elections if I lived there? British citizens could vote in Nova Scotia elections up until about a decade ago, but I had no idea the franchise went the other way.
posted by GhostintheMachine at 7:07 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Even if there are valid left-wing reasons for the UK to leave the EU, it looks to me as though a Leave win will mainly empower the right-wing.
posted by maggiemaggie at 7:08 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


marienbad, if you're going to link to things, you should probably read them first.

Your last link gives several explanations for UK unemployment. Immigration is not one of them.
posted by Sys Rq at 7:08 PM on June 23, 2016 [25 favorites]


Other European countries need to seriously think about how they raise awareness of what exactly is funded, what exactly is protected, and what exactly is prevented by the EU. It's a good thing, but the media isn't covering the good things they do well enough.

Perhaps. That said, I (non-EU citizen, so many grains of salt) have never been more of a euroskeptic than after I visited the Parlamentarium museum in Brussels. My concern began when I found five very helpful multiligual staff just standing around to help visitors operate the lockers, and continued when I realized how many millions they spent on the place in the middle of austerity.

Now is that a stupid example? Absolutely. But I'm not convinced that lists of "here's the good stuff the EU pays for" will be enough to convince the "here's how many EU regulations a eurosausage has to comply with" crowd.
posted by zachlipton at 7:09 PM on June 23, 2016


so why are there British people on the dole then? If the economy has expanded, why has unemployment among brits not gone below a million?

Are you honestly saying you can conceive of no other reason but immigration for unemployment levels?
posted by jaduncan at 7:09 PM on June 23, 2016 [12 favorites]


... your graph shows functionally full employment.

no it shows a million people on the dole.

Right I have to go to bed as I have to work two jobs to make ends meet (and even then I cant) so I am going to sleep - tomorrow will be well busy as it is open fucking day. Hopefully we will be out of the EU by then.

also, yeah, nice to see a bit of name calling on mefi.
posted by marienbad at 7:09 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


it looks to me as though a Leave win will mainly empower the right-wing.

And a subsequent Scottish IndyRef Part 2, if successful, would give Parliament to the Tories possibly for a generation.
posted by chimaera at 7:10 PM on June 23, 2016


Latest from University of East Anglia:
03:00 Fifth forecast update

My predictions continue to be much more pessimistic for Remain than the betting markets, though they seem to be in between estimates from Michael Thrasher and JP Morgan.
  • Predicted probability of Britain Remaining: 0
  • (81 of 382 areas reporting.)
  • Predicted vote share for Remain: 47.1 percent.
  • (90% prediction interval: 46.1 to 48.1 percent)
Is this guy credible? :/
posted by gilrain at 7:10 PM on June 23, 2016


so why are there British people on the dole then? If the economy has expanded, why has unemployment among brits not gone below a million?

Because the government arbitrarily decided to reduce the public sector by a third over the last six years?
posted by dng at 7:10 PM on June 23, 2016 [39 favorites]


The map is looking very odd. Scotland and London all Remain so far. Wales all Leave except Ceredigion (why is that an outlier?). England steadily building up Leave except for 7 LAs.
posted by paduasoy at 7:11 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


How do you look at that graph and not see things improving?
posted by czytm at 7:11 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


Please explain why there have been a million people on the dole while millions of immigrants can come here and get jobs? No one has done this.

Maybe people are unemployed because you're hogging all the jobs.

Yeah, funny. I ask a serious question and this is what I get?

Anyway, bed calls, I am tired from work, have fun.
posted by marienbad at 7:11 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


also, yeah, nice to see a bit of name calling on mefi.

That was not good.
posted by Flashman at 7:11 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


Is this guy credible? :/

Yes.
posted by jaduncan at 7:12 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


Tl;dr: we are so, so fucked.
posted by jaduncan at 7:12 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Is this guy credible? :/

That's not what's on the Beeb's crawl right now:

"Close Result Expected"
50.5% v. 49.5%
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:12 PM on June 23, 2016


Dumfries and Galloway are the only possibility of breaking Scotland's constituency-level combo.
posted by chimaera at 7:13 PM on June 23, 2016


so why are there British people on the dole then? If the economy has expanded, why has unemployment among brits not gone below a million?

Friend, you are fixating on an easy scapegoat for huge economic problems that have plagued western nations ever since the 2008 recession. Many nations have recovered, but all of them have significant immigration. Maybe read up a bit more from a broad variety of sources. The world is not so black and white. If you think employment is an issue now, wait until England can't so easily trade with other countries.
posted by dry white toast at 7:13 PM on June 23, 2016 [39 favorites]


The complaints of... certain posters here show that there has been a problem in creating a "European" identity. Ideally (well, from a pro-EU view of things), a Polish person getting a job in the UK should be like a person from Mississippi getting a job in Ohio -- completely unremarkable.
posted by dhens at 7:13 PM on June 23, 2016 [13 favorites]


Anyone care to explain why Liverpool voted so strongly for Remain?
posted by maggiemaggie at 7:14 PM on June 23, 2016


a Polish person getting a job in the UK should be like a person from Mississippi getting a job in Ohio -- completely unremarkable

I don't think that was ever a realistic possibility in the medium term.
posted by Justinian at 7:14 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


It does seem to be widening in favor of Leave, though, and perhaps it's predictable due to whose votes have been counted so far.
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:14 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]



Anyone care to explain why Liverpool voted so strongly for Remain?


Because we know what it's like to be scapegoated for a problem we didn't cause, by powerful assholes who claim to speak for the working class.
posted by lalochezia at 7:15 PM on June 23, 2016 [45 favorites]


"... your graph shows functionally full employment."
no it shows a million people on the dole.


Right, which is bad, and 5% of 40 million working-age Britons is a big number. HOWEVER it's not going to get any lower if you leave the EU because the unemployment rate in a modern economy doesn't get any lower. If you were told the unemployment rate would fall from just above 5% by leaving the EU, you were massively lied to by people who definitely know better. That number's not going down any farther whether you stop all immigrants from coming in, leave the EU, shoot Britain to the moon, or invent the next Google. The economy will readjust until there's at least that much slack in the labor market.

It's shitty to be part of the 5%, but that number is not going lower. You deal with it through generous unemployment benefits, retraining benefits, and a sturdy social safety net -- which are domestic policy issues that domestic UK politicians have been busily eviscerating for the past several years.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 7:16 PM on June 23, 2016 [105 favorites]


Or maybe those percentages were regional. I'm not entirely sure how to read their rotating banner thing.
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:16 PM on June 23, 2016


Don't know how much effect this had, but the Liverpool Echo supported Remain.
posted by paduasoy at 7:17 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Still trying to figure out if Britain leaving the EU will in any way explain why Jean-Luc Picard had a British accent in Star Trek: The Next Generation.

Years ago I'd postulated a Chunnel War of some sort, but a post-Brexit diaspora seems more likely now. However, since Khan and his supermen never did take over parts of the world, all history is in flux.
posted by fifteen schnitzengruben is my limit at 7:17 PM on June 23, 2016 [10 favorites]


Anyone care to explain why Liverpool voted so strongly for Remain?

Complete guess: A port city sees the value of being able to trade freely with other countries?
posted by dry white toast at 7:18 PM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]


Because we know what it's like to be scapegoated for a problem we didn't cause, by powerful assholes who claim to speak for the working class.

That's the harshest description of The Beatles that I've ever seen.
posted by drezdn at 7:18 PM on June 23, 2016 [49 favorites]


This year is officially off the fucking rails.
posted by Annika Cicada at 7:19 PM on June 23, 2016 [57 favorites]


Anyone care to explain why Liverpool voted so strongly for Remain?

Liverpool has historically been one of the major destinations for immigrants to the UK (starting with the Irish back in the 18th and 19th centuries), so that could be a big part of it.
posted by un petit cadeau at 7:19 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


I know lots of immigrants from the EU with jobs here. They're my doctors and nurses who literally keep me alive. They're my colleagues in the higher education sector who train our students for better jobs. And, obviously, I'm glad they're here.
posted by edd at 7:19 PM on June 23, 2016 [14 favorites]


Talez: "Immortal last fucking words."

Think of the worst divorce you've ever seen. Got it? OK, this is going to be messier than that.

Pink Frost: "I seem to recall we discussed this in the last UK election thread, and there's some thought that the UK fixed-term laws are written very poorly?"

A vote of No-Confidence is still a no confidence vote. The government can't enact any new legislation until after an election even if the fixed term legislation lets them zombie along as the government.

Chocolate Pickle: "Leaving the EU doesn't mean leaving NATO. (Or will the US have to join the EU, too?)"

Wow you know the end times are nigh when the EU goes to war with the UK and the US has to decide which ally to support (Sorry about that lack of support UK).
posted by Mitheral at 7:20 PM on June 23, 2016


Hilary Benn on the BBC just now: "It's not late enough to know. Which is, I suppose, another way to say, it's too early to tell."
posted by Flashman at 7:20 PM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]


these trends look SHIT
posted by lalochezia at 7:21 PM on June 23, 2016


a Polish person getting a job in the UK should be like a person from Mississippi getting a job in Ohio -- completely unremarkable

I don't think that was ever a realistic possibility in the medium term.


I think some of this is because of some of the major backers of the EU are cosmopolitan "Europeans" who perhaps don't realize that people without the time / means to travel (and most importantly, learn languages), will not feel as "at home" all over Europe as some of them.

Yeah. I wonder if (hopefully) the UK stays, this would become more and more likely?
posted by dhens at 7:21 PM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]


I forgot to mention, they're also the people that help pay for the doctors and nurses and the medication that literally keeps me alive.
posted by edd at 7:23 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


Wow, Canada's unemployment rate spiked in late 2008 and returned back down in the past year just like marienbad's linked graph... can I blame immigrants to the UK for unemployment in Canada, too?
posted by GhostintheMachine at 7:24 PM on June 23, 2016 [8 favorites]


Complete guess: A port city sees the value of being able to trade freely with other countries?

Grimsby, the biggest port by tonnage in England, voted heavily for Leave.
posted by Emma May Smith at 7:25 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


More pro-Leave propaganda charts available here.
posted by tonycpsu at 7:26 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


They're my colleagues in the higher education sector who train our students for better jobs. And, obviously, I'm glad they're here.

Yuuup. I taught in the UK for a year. I had two great colleagues who are from the continent and they have now moved from their jobs in the UK to a job in the Netherlands and a job in the Republic of Ireland, I think in part in anticipation of Brexit. Another colleague in the UK just recently obtained a massive grant from the European Research Council, which pours large amounts of money into UK Higher Ed. He of course voted Remain. I wonder what will happen to his project in case of Brexit?
posted by dhens at 7:27 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Complete guess: A port city sees the value of being able to trade freely with other countries?

Tendring, which covers Harwich, will be hugely Leave, whenever that declares. Suffolk Coastal (covering Felixstowe) probably will be as well.
posted by dng at 7:28 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Pound cliffing again.
posted by Emma May Smith at 7:28 PM on June 23, 2016


I promise you Americans speculating on how likely it is that people from other parts of Europe get jobs in the UK (and to a lesser extent, vice versa) that it's completely normal and unremarkable in my office, which isn't cosmopolitan.
posted by ambrosen at 7:28 PM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]


Pound now down 6%.
posted by jaduncan at 7:30 PM on June 23, 2016


I promise you Americans speculating on how likely it is that people from other parts of Europe get jobs in the UK (and to a lesser extent, vice versa) that it's completely normal and unremarkable in my office, which isn't cosmopolitan.

Oh yeah, I noticed it a lot both in the UK and elsewhere in the EU. I am just saying that for some people, it's apparently an issue.
posted by dhens at 7:31 PM on June 23, 2016


Guardian live blog reporting: "The Labour party is now working on the assumption that leave will win, according to party source."
posted by maggiemaggie at 7:31 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Guardian live blog reporting: "The Labour party is now working on the assumption that leave will win, according to party source."

Looks like I picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue.

I wonder if the people hurt by the falling pound will blame immigrants for that too.
posted by Justinian at 7:33 PM on June 23, 2016 [25 favorites]


Complete guess: A port city sees the value of being able to trade freely with other countries?

Tendring, which covers Harwich, will be hugely Leave, whenever that declares. Suffolk Coastal (covering Felixstowe) probably will be as well.


Welp, shows what I know. Others' explanations about immigration in Liverpool make much more sense as a working theory.
posted by dry white toast at 7:35 PM on June 23, 2016


Immigrants have been used by the powerful as a scapegoat on which the working classes can focus their anger for so long now that you'd think we'd be wise to it. But sadly it keeps on working.
posted by Existential Dread at 7:35 PM on June 23, 2016 [29 favorites]


Farage "delighted" about Sheffield result.
posted by paduasoy at 7:36 PM on June 23, 2016


So how the hell do Leave negotiations even work? Does every EU country just basically get to demand whatever they want from the UK in exchange for tariff reductions? Can Spain demand Gibraltar (I mean it's one of the most strategically important ports in the world, surely there's an argument it should be under EU control, right)? Can every EU country demand a couple Beefeaters for tourism purposes?
posted by zachlipton at 7:37 PM on June 23, 2016


"Sheffield is 51% Leave. It was predicted to go Remain on 52%"
Posner: Do you ever look at your life?
Tom Irwin: I thought everybody did.
Posner: I'm a Jew... I'm small... I'm homosexual... and I live in Sheffield... I'm fucked.
--The History Boys
posted by zachlipton at 7:38 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


If it helps you guys feel better, here are the soothing sounds of Neil Diamond, on VH1 Storytellers.
posted by Huffy Puffy at 7:39 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


So how the hell do Leave negotiations even work?

And isn't this technically a non-binding vote? As far as I understand it, a referendum has no actual force unless Parliament enacts something to enable it...what happens if they don't?
posted by T.D. Strange at 7:41 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


So how the hell do Leave negotiations even work?

No-one knows, because the leave campaign never bothered to actually publish a paper or undertook any research at all about what would happen afterwards. Because who needs planning when you've got desire.
posted by dng at 7:41 PM on June 23, 2016 [23 favorites]


I'm going to bed soon. I cannot imagine how Leave can lose this now. The lead keeps growing and even strong Remains from London seem unlikely to pull it back.
posted by Emma May Smith at 7:43 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


And isn't this technically a non-binding vote? As far as I understand it, a referendum has no actual force unless Parliament enacts something to enable it...what happens if they don't?

Then membership in the UKIP jumps massively.
posted by Chocolate Pickle at 7:43 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Canterbury votes to leave?

Leave up by nearly 500,000 now.
posted by TWinbrook8 at 7:43 PM on June 23, 2016


So how the hell do Leave negotiations even work?

And isn't this technically a non-binding vote? As far as I understand it, a referendum has no actual force unless Parliament enacts something to enable it...what happens if they don't?


Dear Britain,

Can we interest you in a Clarity Act?

Sincerely,
Canada
posted by dry white toast at 7:43 PM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]


If it helps you guys feel better, here are the soothing sounds of Neil Diamond, on VH1 Storytellers.

"Few people know that I'm fueled creatively by my massive hatred of immigrants."
posted by dhens at 7:44 PM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]


London is barely in? Why is everyone assuming Leave will win?
posted by zutalors! at 7:44 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


As far as I understand it, a referendum has no actual force unless Parliament enacts something to enable it...what happens if they don't?

More assassinations.
posted by dirigibleman at 7:45 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


Hard to see that - given the new fixed terms for parliament it's difficult to get a snap election. Need a vote of no confidence or 2/3 vote of parliament.

BBC analyst is pointing out that they could just change the Fixed-term Parliaments Act and get a new election that way. It's hard to imagine Cameron staying on, but whether the Conservatives put up a new PM without a new election seems hard to predict.
posted by zachlipton at 7:45 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


And isn't this technically a non-binding vote? As far as I understand it, a referendum has no actual force unless Parliament enacts something to enable it...what happens if they don't?

Yep, it's not binding. In this case, the government would apply to leave the EU under Article 50 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union, which would start a two-year withdrawal process. But no-one knows what that would look like, or what forms negotiations would take - because no-one's done it before.
posted by Pink Frost at 7:46 PM on June 23, 2016


Given that the market is taking something fierce and everybody in England is now 6% 8% poorer than they were at this time last night, a case might be made that this is too damaging to actually do.

Either way, you'll probably end up with Boris in charge and then you can watch him loot what remains standing.
posted by fifteen schnitzengruben is my limit at 7:46 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


Oh fuck. There's still hope, isn't there? Right?
posted by jokeefe at 7:46 PM on June 23, 2016


Hey, can someone tell if me the world economy is about to explode? tia
posted by theodolite at 7:47 PM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]


A lot of people here have been asking why the pre-election polls were so wrong about this. I think we're seeing an example of Social Desireability Bias.

In this case it means that there has been so much propaganda about this election emphasizing how important "stay" is, and insulting and running down people who want to "leave" (and calling them racist and nazis and so on) that a lot of voters have been lying to pollsters about how they intend to vote.

Once in the privacy of the polling booth, they no longer have to pretend, so as a result you're seeing a lot more "leave" votes than the pollsters predicted.

Another example of Social Desireability Bias is the "Bradley Effect".
posted by Chocolate Pickle at 7:47 PM on June 23, 2016 [11 favorites]


I hope Manchester United already cut that check for Zlatan.
posted by Huffy Puffy at 7:48 PM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]


And isn't this technically a non-binding vote? As far as I understand it, a referendum has no actual force unless Parliament enacts something to enable it...what happens if they don't?

"Prime Minister Farage" Maybe not 100% cert but if a Con/Lab coalition decides to ignore a leave result UKIP will be right there for anyone who thought their leave vote meant something.

Looking at the results, the only reason this is even close is because of Scotland. And the Scottish votes are almost all counted. Without a million + vote swing in England this is looking like a leave victory.
posted by Grimgrin at 7:48 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


So I hate to be That Guy, but I can't help but see some degree of analogy between the Leave vote in the UK and Trump support in the USA.

I'd say to a large degree both of these are the working out of the anger and displacement caused by the 2007/2008 Recessions, combined with 30-40 years of steadily squeezing of the middle-lower classes & greater concentration of wealth at the top.

Even though, it is true, unemployment rates of returned to a more reasonable place, still lots of people are worse off than before; and certainly feel like they are worse off than before.

See discussion right up-thread here dead to right on this very point. Whether you accept their explanation/reasons or not (immigration, big government, etc), their feelings and their anger are quite real.

Brexit & Trump (and similar movements like the Tea Party) are trading on this mass feeling of anger and helplessness, and offering solutions.

If you don't like the solutions that Brexit & Trump are offering, you'd better get busy offering better ones--and spending a lot of time explaining to a lot of people why they are better. Because they truly are mad and they truly do not see why these solutions (Brexit/Trump/Tea Party etc) are not perfectly reasonable.

I will confess that one of my frustrations about the Great Recession is how effectively the oligarchs have been able to harness the resulting fear and anger in a way that improves their own standing while robbing everyone else. There was a massive opportunity in 2007/2008/2009 to make some real structural changes that would have hugely benefited the 99% and the democratic process. Instead, everything went to the benefit of the 0.1% with the excuse that, "This is an EMERGENCY now; We don't have ANY choice." Yeah, we had to act, but we could have taken an action to benefit the 99% and also save the economy; instead we funneled the same $$$ directly to the 0.1% and saved the economy.

When you do this, you make people mad. Very mad. They feel the unfairness in their bones even if they don't totally understand it.

And then the self-same oligarchs see some nice opportunities to channel that mass anger in directions that will benefit the 0.1% even more, while screwing the 99% even more.

And so it goes . . .

posted by flug at 7:49 PM on June 23, 2016 [62 favorites]


TWinbrook8, I'd thought all of Kent was likely to be Leave given the immigration issue there. Ukip got 14% of the vote in Canterbury last year. There are a lot of students, but maybe voting at their home addresses.
posted by paduasoy at 7:49 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


A lot of people here have been asking why the pre-election polls were so wrong about this. I think we're seeing an example of Social Desireability Bias.

Perhaps, but the flip-side of that is reversion to the status quo, which we saw much more in the Scottish independence referendum and are apparently not seeing so much here.
posted by zachlipton at 7:50 PM on June 23, 2016


If not "explode", then certainly "recede".
posted by penduluum at 7:50 PM on June 23, 2016


Also: Goddammit, there goes my EU passport. Fuck.
posted by jokeefe at 7:50 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


Another colleague in the UK just recently obtained a massive grant from the European Research Council, which pours large amounts of money into UK Higher Ed. He of course voted Remain. I wonder what will happen to his project in case of Brexit?

FYI, I looked it up and researchers from outside the EU are still eligible (they fund research in Norway, for example). Still, as an EU body, I wonder if they will (subliminally) shy away from future funding of UK projects.
posted by dhens at 7:50 PM on June 23, 2016


I wonder what will happen to his project in case of Brexit?

The ERC funds researchers also from outside the union, so chances are that the current project can proceed. For future activities, he has to talk to Boris' brother and hope that they'll ramp up spending (the UK spends less than the EU average on research on their own). Unless they replace him with friend-of-all-experts Gove, or something, at which point all bets are off.
posted by effbot at 7:50 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


2016 - It's too close to call between Death Year and Year of Idiocy.
posted by srboisvert at 7:53 PM on June 23, 2016 [8 favorites]


That mention of Gove made me head over to slap him. There were another 90 people doing the same.
posted by paduasoy at 7:53 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


its not often that a scouser says this but thank fuck for chelsea and manchester
posted by lalochezia at 7:55 PM on June 23, 2016 [12 favorites]


It's 3am and I don't want to go to sleep. What will I be waking up to?
posted by litleozy at 7:55 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


Brexit & Trump (and similar movements like the Tea Party) are trading on this mass feeling of anger and helplessness, and offering solutions.
"Solutions" that will put more power and money into the hands of the people with all the power and money. Good job, ninnies.
posted by oneswellfoop at 7:57 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


Scientists do get EU funding in the UK in a high proportion, but we generally feel the real benefit comes from increased links, not increased funding.
posted by edd at 7:58 PM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]


Is it too much to hope that people in the US will see this and start to understand the ramifications of a President Trump?

Yeah, it's too much isn't it?
posted by COD at 7:58 PM on June 23, 2016 [16 favorites]


I wonder if the people hurt by the falling pound will blame immigrants for that too.

hey, there will be fewer jobs for an immigrant to steal from a hard working Real Brit. silver lining.
posted by Krom Tatman at 7:58 PM on June 23, 2016 [6 favorites]




President Trump is the only scenario in which any country will even talk to Britain after this. Maybe he'll even let us join!
posted by dng at 7:59 PM on June 23, 2016


Well, if there's one silver lining to all this, I have relatives vising family in the UK right now. Their vacation just got a lot cheaper. Shit, things keep going the way they're going they might be able to pick up an otherwise too expensive souvenir. Bournemouth would look nice in the living room.
posted by Grimgrin at 8:00 PM on June 23, 2016 [16 favorites]


I don't think the pound would have dropped this much if the actual fucking Bank of England was blown up by a Bond villain
posted by theodolite at 8:02 PM on June 23, 2016 [54 favorites]


I'm in a bar in the Mission in San Francisco and one of the two TVs is showing live coverage of the results. I have been chatting a bit with a guy who's English (and a regular, hence the TV showing BBC World News) and he's thinking he's going to be weeping into his beer soon. He's not the only Brit in here, and all of them look depressed.
posted by rtha at 8:02 PM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]


exactly gimgrin, I'm like, "Thanks for not a lot, Brexit, but at least you made my honeymoon in september cheaper."
posted by Annika Cicada at 8:02 PM on June 23, 2016


This is good for Bitcoin.
posted by biogeo at 8:02 PM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]


(and calling them racist and nazis and so on)

I think you have that backwards; it was Gove who called people nazis, not the other way around.

As for who's the racist, I (again) present you with Leave campaign highlights like Abandon Ship and Breaking Point.
posted by effbot at 8:02 PM on June 23, 2016 [9 favorites]


Given that the market is taking something fierce and everybody in England is now 6% 8% 9% poorer than they were at this time last night

(And falling, with no end in sight)
posted by dirigibleman at 8:02 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


Bournemouth would look nice in the living room.

Please, take it. Could do you a deal with Weymouth and Poole too.
posted by paduasoy at 8:02 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


gbp/usd went from 1.40 to 1.36 within the last hour or so. The markets are now betting on a brexit.
posted by plep at 8:02 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Oh good, now Nigel Farage is giving a speech about "victory for real people"
posted by theodolite at 8:03 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


Reload this page and watch the pound plummet. Wild.
posted by oulipian at 8:03 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Proper fucking V for Vendetta speech here from Nigel Farage.
posted by dng at 8:03 PM on June 23, 2016 [10 favorites]


Sigh. Well, the world may be ending, but I'm going to buy some cheap bras.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 8:04 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


He actually said the victory was won without "a single bullet" fired.

What a turd.

And was that really an ID4 reference at the end? Ugh.
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:05 PM on June 23, 2016 [7 favorites]


The Mexican peso (vs usd) just jumped up. woe.
posted by dhruva at 8:06 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


For context, gbp/usd has gone from a peak of 1.49 to 1.36 within the last 24 hours. This is the steepest dive since 1992.
posted by plep at 8:07 PM on June 23, 2016


This is good for Bitcoin.

BTC/USD +13%
posted by save alive nothing that breatheth at 8:08 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


He actually said the victory was won without "a single bullet" fired.

Fuck me, I was listening to the shite and I missed this bit.

On the plus side, my donation in US dollars in memoriam will be worth more than ever.
posted by kalimac at 8:08 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


It's Labour you can't trust with the economy, though.
posted by dng at 8:08 PM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]


>450k vote difference at ~50% votes. it's over people.
posted by lalochezia at 8:09 PM on June 23, 2016


victory was won without "a single bullet" fired.

wrong
posted by theodolite at 8:10 PM on June 23, 2016 [83 favorites]


The economy will readjust until there's at least that much slack in the labor market.


The economy does not readjust. The economy is readjusted. It's a peeve of mine that people attribute agency to the economy.

The employment rate is maintained by the central banking authorities who play with cash flow to try and produce that 5 percent rate which is deemed to be a goldilocks value that keeps the economy growing just enough but keeps inflation down (full employment results in inflation because companies have to pay more to hire workers - though these days workers are so underpaid relative to productivity that there should be a lot of slack in the system).

The UK, having its own currency, controls this whether they are in or out of the EU. Some other EU countries though are pretty screwed by this because they can't manipulate how hot their economies are independently.
posted by srboisvert at 8:10 PM on June 23, 2016 [6 favorites]


Oh good, now Nigel Farage is giving a speech about "victory for real people"

Here at the bar we discussed whether we should huck things at the TV when he came on.
posted by rtha at 8:12 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


"Cheap pound would be great for UK exports were the UK not withdrawing from the world's biggest integrated market." --Matt Yglesias
posted by Pater Aletheias at 8:13 PM on June 23, 2016 [29 favorites]


"He actually said the victory was won without "a single bullet" fired. "

Dante has risen from his grave and is writing a tenth circle of hell JUST FOR THIS ASSHOLE.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 8:13 PM on June 23, 2016 [66 favorites]


victory was won without "a single bullet" fired.

Absolutely disgusting.
posted by maggiemaggie at 8:14 PM on June 23, 2016 [19 favorites]


I cannot fucking believe I am seeing this.
posted by Annika Cicada at 8:17 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


this is what you get when you elect conservative governments too weak to stand up properly to their fascist wing......

......and labor governments who are too busy kissing the neoliberal ring at the cost of working class communities.

i just can't even
posted by lalochezia at 8:17 PM on June 23, 2016 [29 favorites]


Reload this page and watch the pound plummet. Wild.

xe.com just returns error for me, must be getting hammered.
posted by wallabear at 8:18 PM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]


its not often that a scouser says this but thank fuck for chelsea and manchester

Much as I hate LFC, I know we can rely on Scousers to do the right thing at the polling booth.

But Salford went leave? WTF?
posted by Pink Frost at 8:18 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Yahoo actually has a live chart of GBP vs USD.
posted by oulipian at 8:19 PM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]


Pound is at $1.34 and still falling. Holy crap.
posted by un petit cadeau at 8:20 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


Is this what happens when you have the govt turn a blind eye to peoples problems?
posted by asra at 8:20 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


This is stupefying. I'm very sorry for the UK posters here.
posted by codacorolla at 8:21 PM on June 23, 2016 [22 favorites]


Corbyn, for all I agree with his policies, hasn't led the Labour party even slightly, and I'm sad and disillusioned.
posted by ambrosen at 8:23 PM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]


Is there any chance the London Stock Exchange does not open tomorrow to try and curb this free fall? Would that even help?
posted by palindromic at 8:23 PM on June 23, 2016


We are so fucked.
posted by Devonian at 8:24 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


So, looks like you guys has gotten yourself a new holiday, the "UK Independence Day" (abbreviated UKIԀ).
posted by effbot at 8:24 PM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]


The world trade markets are gonna be a freak out tomorrow.
posted by Annika Cicada at 8:24 PM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]


The Leaver on Radio 4 just said "nothing is going to happen" re the economy while the interviewer is audibly sputtering
posted by theodolite at 8:24 PM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]


VOTE NATIONAL ECONOMIC SUICIDE
posted by dng at 8:25 PM on June 23, 2016 [11 favorites]


Leave.eu, although not the official campaign, did say that they would honour the status all EU citizens already here and considered them settled. All Leavers I've spoken to agree that that's the right thing to do, though I don't kid myself that it is the opinion of everybody. I personally think we don't have an option but to let them stay.

This is not how it will work out in practice. Hell, it's barely how it works now. My "current status" is "doesn't count as resident in the UK except when you're in work" which means that, what with the being unable to work at the moment for health reasons, that my position here is incredibly tenuous as is, and that the ten years plus I have been living here - my entire adult life - count for shit all.
posted by Dysk at 8:25 PM on June 23, 2016 [21 favorites]


Jesus Mary and Joseph, the Brits are supposed to be smarter than us.

What the actual fuck?
posted by Mooski at 8:25 PM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]


Even on the other side of the world, this is terrifying.
posted by crossoverman at 8:25 PM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]


I thought, surely, once you'd fucked a pig, you couldn't do anything worse to your legacy....
posted by tzikeh at 8:26 PM on June 23, 2016 [40 favorites]


Jesus spraytanned christ on a segway what is happening in the goddamn world?

Good luck Brits and may this not foreshadow God Emperor Trump.
posted by Skorgu at 8:26 PM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]



Jesus Mary and Joseph, the Brits are supposed to be smarter than us.

What the actual fuck?


have you actually met real brits?
posted by lalochezia at 8:27 PM on June 23, 2016 [27 favorites]


I am hoping that there's lots of people working behind closed doors to make sure Britain gets a 6 month ass-kicking and gets to withdraw its withdrawal as long as it promises to act like a grown up from now on.

I think I'm thinking wishfully though.
posted by ambrosen at 8:27 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


Well, I'm on the verge of tears, but I will say I am so very proud of Scotland. I'm looking forward to their forthcoming independence, I expect great things.

All my thoughts and prayers are with you all!
posted by getting_back_on_track at 8:27 PM on June 23, 2016 [25 favorites]


I'm doubtful that Britain will actually leave the EU. The ref is non-binding, and there is simply too much wealth at stake that the wealthy elite will allow Britain to leave. I'm guessing that even if the ref results in a clear sentiment to leave the EU, a way forward will be found to prevent this or at least hollow out "leaving" so much that the result is effectively the same as staying.

Just my opinion from across the pond.
posted by InsertNiftyNameHere at 8:27 PM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]


Dysk. all the hugs.
posted by Annika Cicada at 8:28 PM on June 23, 2016 [10 favorites]


Doesn't matter if we leave or not, fascism won, and that's going to be a lasting stain.
posted by Artw at 8:28 PM on June 23, 2016 [48 favorites]


I'm constantly refreshing the results page to see if my constituency has declared yet. I do not know why I am doing this. It is not possible that it has not voted Leave. I need to talk to my cat, who will bite me and piss off, and then I need to go to bed. My brother-in-law's job is likely to be vulnerable now - mine hopefully not but I do not want to deal with the amount of hate and muddled thinking in the UK. Also, Sturgeon now talking about another Scottish referendum.
posted by paduasoy at 8:28 PM on June 23, 2016


GBP is at 30 year low against USD.
posted by Kabanos at 8:29 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


I'm pulling my money out of gold, oil, and stocks and buying Cadbury Flake. I feel for you, England, and hope this gets better before it gets worse.
posted by vrakatar at 8:29 PM on June 23, 2016


The pound is down almost 15% vs. the yen. This is recession-level lows.
posted by armage at 8:29 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


have you actually met real brits?

Yes, and I'm from Florida, thanks.
posted by Mooski at 8:29 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


I'm guessing that even if the ref results in a clear sentiment to leave the EU, a way forward will be found to prevent this or at least hollow out "leaving" so much that the result is effectively the same as staying.

I think you may be underestimating the desire of the rest of the EU to punish the UK severely both for giving up on the entire European project, and as a message to the ascendant far right in Hungary and elsewhere that this is what happens. Mainland Europe probably is not going to take this well, at all.
posted by T.D. Strange at 8:30 PM on June 23, 2016 [8 favorites]


Plenty of Brits still posting here, plenty of us smart, plenty of us stupid, so please don't other us when many of us are having the bottom fall out of our civil lives.
posted by ambrosen at 8:31 PM on June 23, 2016 [35 favorites]


People are just the same dumb everywhere.
posted by Drinky Die at 8:31 PM on June 23, 2016 [13 favorites]


Leave is up almost 700,000 now. The gap is widening.
posted by Pater Aletheias at 8:31 PM on June 23, 2016


Plenty of Brits still posting here, plenty of us smart, plenty of us stupid, so please don't other us when many of us are having the bottom fall out of our civil lives.

Agreed. Apologies for my mouth getting away with me.
posted by Mooski at 8:32 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


This is good for Bitcoin.

This is good for everything that can be exchanged for Pounds. Exchange widgets worth a few pounds yesterday for many pounds tomorrow, then when pounds recover, buy many more widgets.

(Some widgets are made of gold, shaped like bricks, and live in bank vaults.)

I kind of suspect that's all this whole stupid thing this is about. Rich people getting richer. Why else would Cameron have pushed for a referendum when he's in favour of the status quo? Gotta make that Panama money back somehow!
posted by Sys Rq at 8:32 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


This is just insane.
posted by strange chain at 8:32 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


I can only imagine the federal reserve is playing close attention to the reaction in the global markets. The next few days are gonna be unpredictable to say the least.
posted by Annika Cicada at 8:33 PM on June 23, 2016


I have never seen a clearer illustration of the political divide between London and the rest of England. Maybe we should become a Gibralter-esque exclave of Scotland.
posted by tavegyl at 8:33 PM on June 23, 2016 [6 favorites]


Also, my comment about Kent being Leave - bloody Tunbridge Wells is Remain. Tunbridge Wells! Never thought I would be praising them.
posted by paduasoy at 8:33 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


I feel for you, England, and hope this gets better before it gets worse.

However bad this will be for England, it will certainly be worse for Northern Ireland, Wales, and Scotland.
posted by Dysk at 8:34 PM on June 23, 2016 [8 favorites]


Britain showing the world we're still a global power by triggering a global recession all by ourselves.
posted by dng at 8:34 PM on June 23, 2016 [110 favorites]


My back of the envelope (actually a hastily thrown together excel spreadsheet) is saying that to win Remain needs >75% of all remaining votes. Seeing as how almost all the remaining votes are English... welp. It's not done, but it's resting under foil waiting to be carved and plated.

T.D. Strange: Yeap. The EU is going to roll out Wolfgang Schäuble in full enforcer mode. And so the EU will open up another self-inflicted sucking chest wound, as every would be (First two letters of country)-exiteer, starts waving a bloody shirt about how this demonstrates the EU actually views democracy, and we need to get out now before we loose any chance of national self determination.
posted by Grimgrin at 8:37 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


Clean sweep for Remain in Scotland.
posted by Flitcraft at 8:39 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


People are just the same dumb everywhere.

Which this year is more dumberer than everer.
posted by srboisvert at 8:39 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


Last area of Scotland just checked in - 100% remain.

Game on.
posted by Devonian at 8:39 PM on June 23, 2016 [11 favorites]


BBC called it now
posted by comealongpole at 8:39 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


If leave wins, is there a chance the Queen comes out for a speech and says simply, "No.", hoping that no one calls her on it?

Because jesus christ this cannot be happening.
posted by Slackermagee at 8:40 PM on June 23, 2016 [9 favorites]


However bad this will be for England, it will certainly be worse for Northern Ireland, Wales, and Scotland.

Can you elaborate on that?
posted by cacofonie at 8:40 PM on June 23, 2016


The BBC has called it. The people of the United Kingdom have voted to leave the European Union. Six pints of bitter, and quickly please, the world's about to end.
posted by Drinky Die at 8:41 PM on June 23, 2016 [44 favorites]


The guys on CNN International just reported its been called for "Leave". I guess this qualifies as a "Black Swan" event....................
posted by eagles123 at 8:41 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


Crashing the economy might turn out to be an effective way to keep the immigrants away.
posted by sfenders at 8:41 PM on June 23, 2016 [12 favorites]


I am actually crying now like a big useless baby. what a fucking load of shit

good night everyone
posted by dng at 8:41 PM on June 23, 2016 [9 favorites]


BBC: "The British people have spoken and the answer is -- we're out."

4 points. Yikes.
posted by chortly at 8:41 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


I watched John Oliver, and my reaction to his calling people who wanted to leave both stupid and racist was a realization...

Calling someone racist is just a dog-whistle for "working class / non-salaried"


Yes, of course, this is why the Leave campaign decided to post a giant poster of a throng of people punching a time clock with their sleeves rolled up - that's the real secret dog-whistle motivation, not racism at all. It's an unfortunate coincidence the throng of people were all brown and they cropped out the time clock by accident, but luckily everybody saw through that.
posted by Homeboy Trouble at 8:42 PM on June 23, 2016 [48 favorites]


ITV called it as well.

Fuck all of the things.
posted by kalimac at 8:42 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


My grandmother's maiden name was Buchanan. Scotland, you just made a large extended family of blue-blooded democrat Scottish descendants in Texas proud tonight.
posted by Annika Cicada at 8:42 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


I have never seen a clearer illustration of the political divide between London and the rest of England. Maybe we should become a Gibralter-esque exclave of Scotland.

For extra fun, compare that with a map of where in the UK immigrants actually live.
posted by effbot at 8:42 PM on June 23, 2016 [16 favorites]


Fuck.
posted by tonycpsu at 8:42 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


Oh god. Oh goooooooood. No.
posted by Quagkapi at 8:42 PM on June 23, 2016


Well, fuck, this just fucks the fuck out of all the fucks in fuckville. Fuck.
posted by vrakatar at 8:44 PM on June 23, 2016 [7 favorites]


No idea how to process this, so instead I'll descend into possibilities minutia.
Pretty soon after voting to stay in the UK, Scotland votes to remain in the EU as well, but appears to be outvoted overall.
Does Scotland have the opportunity to re-visit the independence vote and stay within the EU?
posted by meinvt at 8:44 PM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]


I am so, so sorry.
posted by Mooski at 8:44 PM on June 23, 2016


Unbelievable.
posted by theodolite at 8:45 PM on June 23, 2016


Does Scotland have the opportunity to re-visit the independence vote and stay within the EU?

Yes. Nicola Sturgeon has obviously not set a timeframe, but there is absolutely a chance for another referendum.
posted by kalimac at 8:45 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Can you elaborate on that?

EU money disproportionately flows to those countries over England, UK influence is heavily centralised in London and mostly considers the needs of the South East of England, and Northern Ireland has that whole open land border with an EU nation thing to deal with and all.

But mostly, I was reacting angrily to someone expressing sympathy for England over an issue that affects the entire UK. The terms are not interchangeable.
posted by Dysk at 8:45 PM on June 23, 2016 [6 favorites]


BBC political editor: "We're calling it - We're out"
posted by thefoxgod at 8:45 PM on June 23, 2016


Birmingham - leave.

Well, fuck.
posted by Artw at 8:46 PM on June 23, 2016


Okay, now is the time to panic.
posted by Apocryphon at 8:46 PM on June 23, 2016


disbelief.
posted by cacofonie at 8:46 PM on June 23, 2016


This really seems like a fake headline from Children of Men
posted by cacofonie at 8:48 PM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]


This is...wow.
posted by lazaruslong at 8:48 PM on June 23, 2016


There's no way Scotland will be allowed a vote to leave the UK. They need the oil now more than ever.
posted by dilaudid at 8:48 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


The Pound is down to 1.34 and the Euro is down to $1.09. I wouldn't be shocked tomorrow if the Euro is at parity and the Pound is under $1.25.
posted by chimaera at 8:49 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Surprised and worried.
posted by Miko at 8:49 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


This is a far-right coup.

And it worked.
posted by Quagkapi at 8:49 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


:(
posted by crossoverman at 8:49 PM on June 23, 2016


The PM and then George Osborne have to get a speech off before 8am when the LSE opens. FTSE 100 futures right now show the market expects to open down 8.5%. What the hell do they even say to that?
posted by zachlipton at 8:50 PM on June 23, 2016


Jesus Christ.
posted by mynameisluka at 8:50 PM on June 23, 2016


Hell yeah UK, let's abandon 40 years of progress and cooperation, cuz fuck yeah nationalism!

This is a world destruction your life ain't nothing.
posted by vrakatar at 8:50 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Most of Wales voting leave is currently depressing me the most. There are a lot of counties in Wales that get special EU funding for economic hardship that will be badly affected in the long run by this. I don't live there any more but it still saddens me immensely.
posted by jzed at 8:50 PM on June 23, 2016 [8 favorites]


At least we can look forward to Farage's announcement of a super-rare unreconcession.
posted by figurant at 8:52 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


The Nikkei is down 8%, Hang Seng 5%.

I admit I dumped everything I owned before the vote. Not out of prescience but out of pessimism. Of course with my history the headline here tomorrow will be "DOW SURGES 9% ON BREXIT RESULT".
posted by Justinian at 8:52 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


Fuck.
posted by Akhu at 8:52 PM on June 23, 2016




I could swear I posted something here... but it must have been Facebook....

things like the Brexit are what happen where the Powers that Be have used up all their trust and goodwill, and thus can no longer convince the people that they know what's best.

I think that in the long run, this will be good for all involved... lessons will be learned.
posted by MikeWarot at 8:53 PM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]


Does Scotland have the opportunity to re-visit the independence vote and stay within the EU?

Linking to Wikipedia here, but there was debate at the last referendum as to whether the Scottish Parliament had the power to call a referendum. In the end, the UK Parliament agreed that they could. So it seems uncertain as to whether Scotland could unilaterally decide to have another one.
posted by Pink Frost at 8:54 PM on June 23, 2016


I doubt either the UK or the EU will exist in five years' time, at least in a recognizable form to today.
posted by Emma May Smith at 8:55 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]




mark your calendars: 23/6/2016. not 9/11/01, not as spectacular, but the consequences will be dire.

just played out in less obvious, but equally causal chains.

certainly the environment - and workers rights - and human rights - are going to be more fucked - divide and conquer. if EU regulations have no teeth, the race to the bottom for profit seeking in the least regulated country will be all the more stronger and more vicious.

certainly, distrust of "the other" will increase

certainly, walls will go up

certainly, right-wing parties across Europe will be emboldened

i’m serious when I say this. the chances of real, armed, european conflict just got higher.

not 5 years from now, but 15 or 20.

when resource shortages hit, or more serious migration crises, or some environmental stress....... and there's no interdependence hardwired between states, we will choose to fight.

mark your calendars, students of history.
posted by lalochezia at 8:55 PM on June 23, 2016 [35 favorites]


I think that in the long run, this will be good for all involved... lessons will be learned.

It sure as fuck won't be for those of us getting thrown under the bus here. But keep pretending this is some abstract issue about principles, and not a real human tragedy with actual people's lives at stake.
posted by Dysk at 8:55 PM on June 23, 2016 [86 favorites]


good for all involved*

*Immigrants, British expats in EU, Northern Ireland, Gibraltar, people whose jobs rely on trade in the Common Market, academics, mixed-citizenship couples, recipients of EU aid not included in "all"
posted by dhens at 8:56 PM on June 23, 2016 [55 favorites]


World War II, but with the sides reversed.
posted by Apocryphon at 8:56 PM on June 23, 2016


Bloomberg has the Pound down to 1.3326 USD (-10.43%)

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GBPUSD:CUR
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:57 PM on June 23, 2016


At least we can look forward to Farage's announcement of a super-rare unreconcession.

Liam Fox just pointed out that the UKIP has now served it's purpose; this is why they started the party, so the right thing for Farage would be to disband it (and direct his voters to the conservatives instead, I assume). I'm not going to hold my breath.
posted by effbot at 8:57 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Feel likes the lights are going out again in Europe. :(

Hugs from across the pond to all my UK and Continent friends and family.
posted by longdaysjourney at 8:57 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


I think that in the long run, this will be good for all involved... lessons will be learned.

Except for, y'know, immigrants. Most of whom didn't need a(nother) "lesson" in xenophobia.
posted by Krom Tatman at 8:58 PM on June 23, 2016 [18 favorites]


>> good for all involved*

> *Immigrants, British expats in EU, Northern Ireland, Gibraltar, people whose jobs rely on trade in the Common Market, academics, mixed-citizenship couples, recipients of EU aid not included in "all"


Yeah, the mixed-citizenship academic couples I know in the UK are suddenly in an untenable position.

WTF, Britain.
posted by RedOrGreen at 9:00 PM on June 23, 2016 [7 favorites]


I reserve this mean glare for the Scots who voted no on the IndyRef: ಠ_ಠ

Since Brexit is a closed deal, I'm taking bets on whether the Tories/UKIP even allow the Scots to have a second one. They got too close last time.
posted by chimaera at 9:00 PM on June 23, 2016


Except for, y'know, immigrants.

Some of those immigrants in the UK who are also valued Mefites who deserve a better situation than this.
posted by Annika Cicada at 9:00 PM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]


Liam Fox just pointed out that the UKIP has now served it's purpose; this is why they started the party, so the right thing for Farage would be to disband it (and direct his voters to the conservatives instead, I assume).

UKIP doesn't win until Parliament passes a bill to leave the EU and all negotiations are completed.
posted by Chocolate Pickle at 9:02 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Corbyn, for all I agree with his policies, hasn't led the Labour party even slightly, and I'm sad and disillusioned.

I suppose where I'm seeing a silver lining in this mess is that perhaps the neoliberal majority of the Labour party and UK establishment generally need to have the living shit scared out of them and be dealt a major, major blow before they'll take seriously left-ish policies that could actually address contemporary economic problems. And perhaps the ECB will be more willing to consider Eurobonds and debt forgiveness, etc. when at least one major EU member has shut itself out over much less egregious disagreements than Greece and Spain can raise (EU != Eurozone yes I know, but still).

Time shall tell.
posted by 3urypteris at 9:02 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


Holy .... :/
posted by R343L at 9:06 PM on June 23, 2016


Wow. 2016. Man, I hope this doesn't presage a trump landslide.
posted by SecretAgentSockpuppet at 9:06 PM on June 23, 2016 [12 favorites]


I'm so, so sorry, Britain. And I am really, really afraid of what this mean for the global economy in the near term, and global peace in the long term.

To those saying Britain will still have NATO and the U.S., that won't be true if America follows Britain's lead and elects Trump and the "America First" crowd. He has made it clear he wouldn't hesitate to dissolve any long-standing alliances. And if Britain leaving the EU triggers yet another global recession, the odds of a Trump America just got a lot higher.
posted by biogeo at 9:07 PM on June 23, 2016 [9 favorites]


Since Brexit is a closed deal, I'm taking bets on whether the Tories/UKIP even allow the Scots to have a second one. They got too close last time.

This time it won't be in their gift to "allow" it. The Scottish Government can simply hold a "non-binding" referendum like this one, and stare down any UK government that dares to reject the implications of a resounding Yes vote.

Scotland could well be out of the UK before the next General Election.
posted by rory at 9:07 PM on June 23, 2016 [9 favorites]


A hell of a lot of people were sick of being told how to vote. Wow.
posted by Coda Tronca at 9:08 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


Omg. I'm in shock. I feel so much for my Scottish relatives.
posted by biggreenplant at 9:08 PM on June 23, 2016




Gah, so very shocked and sorry! This is horrible - poor you guys, so sorry!
posted by madamjujujive at 9:10 PM on June 23, 2016


@MarcusReports: Japan has halted trading #Brexit

Damn. I have a feeling we are going to see more market interventions before the day over. This is...ghastly.
posted by Annika Cicada at 9:12 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


@ITVAllegra
Am being told that Cameron and Osborne are finished. There will be a "dignified exit" say senior Tories. "Not immediate".
posted by lalochezia at 9:13 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Holy fuck. I really, really thought that Remain would pull through.

My UK friends are reporting that they're stunned, and shamed. Hugs and good wishes going out to anyone feeling likewise.
posted by TwoStride at 9:13 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


One of the major currencies is down 10% in a couple of hours, of course they're going to halt trading and regroup.

Wow, you guys really showed those immigrants a thing or two, didn't you? Remember when the worst thing that could happen is you'd get knocked out in the first round of the World Cup? Those were the days.
posted by fifteen schnitzengruben is my limit at 9:14 PM on June 23, 2016 [9 favorites]


Jesus christ, the Nikkei dropped 7.5%.
posted by biogeo at 9:14 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


2016.

A decade and a half of slow simmering is reaching a boil.
posted by flippant at 9:14 PM on June 23, 2016 [9 favorites]


The age divide on this vote is pretty stunning. There's going to be a lot of resentment toward older Brits for years to come over this.
posted by zachlipton at 9:14 PM on June 23, 2016 [24 favorites]


Well. Went to bed expecting Remain to win. This is very surprising.

Interesting times.
posted by veedubya at 9:15 PM on June 23, 2016


> I have a feeling we are going to see more market interventions before the day over. This is...ghastly.

Agreed. The markets had priced in "Remain" and would have been jittery if the vote had been too narrow for comfort. But an outright "Leave" outcome - those lemmings are going to be diving off the cliff in droves when the market opens. Ghastly is right.
posted by RedOrGreen at 9:15 PM on June 23, 2016


well this is some shit, is what this is.
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 9:15 PM on June 23, 2016 [10 favorites]


The Nikkei is trading again -- they did have a short lunch break, so perhaps that was what was being referred to...?
posted by armage at 9:16 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


So disheartening and scary. The swing to the Right in so many countries at once is ominous.
posted by futz at 9:16 PM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]




The age divide on this vote is pretty stunning. There's going to be a lot of resentment toward older Brits for years to come over this.


im feeling pretty logans runny right now
posted by lalochezia at 9:16 PM on June 23, 2016 [17 favorites]


@lalochezia, I can't do it, I'm sorry. I want to give you a favorite, your hitting all of the right notes for me - great prose, a bold prophecy, a sentiment I can't disagree with...

But I can't do it, I'm fighting back tears here, trying to reason through the consequences of what we've just done, consequences for real flesh and blood people not just integers in some simulation, and I can't. I can't believe we're going down this road.

I refuse to.

I don't know what has just happened, to the UK, or to the world, but I see some small rays of light here.

A few weeks ago I had not even heard of the courageous hero MP Jo Cox, and now shes an honest to GD martyr for me. I will never forget the sacrifice she made for freedom.

I have to believe we can still fix this, I have to believe other people feel the same way, and there are enough of us, in America, in Europe, in the Middle East, in the UK, in China, in Africa, and all over the whole world, there are enough of us to keep pushing things forward.

I have to believe love is stronger than hate, and when all is said and done we will remember tonight, not as if it was a turning point towards a darker future, but as if it was a call to action, the dawning of a new age.

I will not let hope die tonight, I will not let this vote be a funeral pyre for our future.

There is an election coming up in my home country, and to be honest I was a bit blase about the whole thing. One thing which did die tonight is my cynicism. I am about to fall into line so hard. Yea, maybe I can't have exactly what I want, but I'm not going to let the dark forces of the night knock my country from the path of progress, even if it is incremental.

Maybe now we are a bit beaten down, but I'm confident if we help each other up we can stand together, and I'm sure then we will be even stronger for having endured.

Love is stronger than hate, if we keep going we will make it through the long night.
posted by getting_back_on_track at 9:17 PM on June 23, 2016 [54 favorites]


London exchange opens in a little under 3 hours, Nikkei is down 7-8% right now and I expect LSE will be brutal.

Of course, there's still a question of where things will stabilize in a week or two, but right now the financial markets are freaking out.
posted by thefoxgod at 9:18 PM on June 23, 2016


No, it was an automatic 10 minute break in trading triggered by the precipitous drop. It seems to have helped, it's rebounding a bit now.
posted by biogeo at 9:18 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Having been raised by a racist/sexist white male a half-century ago, I have learned two things: NEVER underestimate the power of 'my people' when we believe we're losing Privilege, and to paraphrase Pogo, "We are everyone's worst enemy, including our own".
posted by oneswellfoop at 9:18 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


Yeah the Nikkei was a planned break. WHEW.
posted by Annika Cicada at 9:19 PM on June 23, 2016


Current measure. More than 1.1 million Brits voted to leave than to stay. Let that sink in.
posted by lalochezia at 9:21 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


I'm pulling my money out of Cadbury Flake and buying guns and butter. Or butter guns, so I can shoot butter into things, mainly food, British food I hope, especially shepherd's pie and jelly babies.
posted by vrakatar at 9:22 PM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]


Went to sleep when it was looking ok, just woke back up beyond devastated. This as a result of one manifesto promise Cameron saw fit to hold up. Voluntary, arbitrary self sabotage on a massive scale. Terrified.
posted by runincircles at 9:22 PM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]


Trading briefly halted for Nikkei futures as circuit breaker kicks in. So it was technically a futures market.
posted by biogeo at 9:22 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


The most eponymous comment possibly ever on Mefi

Thank you. I needed this. Thank you.
posted by Annika Cicada at 9:22 PM on June 23, 2016 [8 favorites]


I think that in the long run, this will be good for all involved... lessons will be learned.

"The long run", when it comes to stuff like this, probably means "when I'm dead" for most people. And lessons learned are easy to unlearn. I am pessimistic.
posted by haapsane at 9:24 PM on June 23, 2016 [10 favorites]


@Simon_Nixon
ITV now reporting that Sinn Fein calling for new vote on united Ireland. Brexiters were adamant that this wouldn't happen.

@MarcMallett_UTV
BREAKING: Sinn Fein says "British government has forfeited any mandate to represent economic or political interests of people in N Ireland"
posted by triggerfinger at 9:24 PM on June 23, 2016 [48 favorites]


Better Together, they said. EU membership at risk if you vote out they said.

My arse. Bye bye United Kingdom. If you weren't doomed before, you are now.

The one tiny comfort is Cameron is toast. Offset by the likelihood of seeing a lot more of Fucking Farage.
posted by Happy Dave at 9:25 PM on June 23, 2016 [6 favorites]


phew, the world's stock markets are safe! Would hate democracy to interfere with capitalism and trade!

It's not just about a bunch of traders making money. The Pound now buys 11% less dollar-denominated stuff, which is a problem for basically anybody who gets paid in GBP and wants to buy things like fuel or food. And as the markets open, a lot of people will notice their retirement accounts are noticeably lighter. The financial markets matter here.
posted by zachlipton at 9:25 PM on June 23, 2016 [36 favorites]


NYT
Despite opinion polls ahead of the referendum on Thursday that showed either side in a position to win, the outcome nonetheless stunned much of Britain, Europe and the trans-Atlantic alliance, highlighting the power of anti-elite, populist and nationalist sentiment at a time of economic and cultural dislocation.
posted by Miko at 9:26 PM on June 23, 2016


phew, the world's stock markets are safe!

I'm sensing the snark, I guess here is where I should qualify that from where I sit I see stock market dislocations causing recessions that end up hurting poor, marginalized and oppressed people way way way more than the asset classes. So yeah, I don't want the stock markets to take a hit tomorrow because I don't want people to suffer more than they already do.
posted by Annika Cicada at 9:26 PM on June 23, 2016 [35 favorites]


Well, fuck.
posted by Nice Guy Mike at 9:27 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


> "The long run", when it comes to stuff like this, probably means "when I'm dead" for most people.

NYT commenting on the huge difference in support for Remain between older and younger Britons:

Older voters are more likely to be retired and on a pension or other fixed income. That could mean they feel insulated from any short-term economic downturns caused by a Brexit — and that they don’t expect to share in future economic gains from staying. Younger voters have more to gain and lose from the economy’s performance — and from being able to freely work across Europe.
posted by RedOrGreen at 9:27 PM on June 23, 2016 [6 favorites]


Older voters are going to find their fixed income is going to kill them if a bout of inflation degrades their pension’s spending power.
posted by pharm at 9:29 PM on June 23, 2016 [18 favorites]


I am reminded of a cartoon on a historian's blog. The text said something along the line of:

Those who do not study history are doomed to repeat it.

Those who study history are doomed to experiencing it's repitition driven by their fellows who don't study it.
posted by bukvich at 9:30 PM on June 23, 2016 [73 favorites]


bukvich, I was about to make that same joke. Or "joke".
posted by biogeo at 9:31 PM on June 23, 2016


I will never forget the sacrifice she made for freedom.

I understand your sentiment but I'm going to beg you to reframe. She didn't sign up for a tour in a war zone. She was not a soldier. She was serving her community in quite an ordinary way and did not - should not in any way - expect that she was offering her life. She did not "make" a sacrifice: her life was stolen from her.
posted by rtha at 9:32 PM on June 23, 2016 [101 favorites]


@AFP
#BREAKING: Scotland 'sees its future as part of the EU': First Minister
posted by triggerfinger at 9:32 PM on June 23, 2016 [13 favorites]


This is surreal.
posted by triggerfinger at 9:32 PM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]


Wow, guess those depressing Bond movies with Daniel Craig were actually just ahead of their time.
posted by FJT at 9:32 PM on June 23, 2016


I guess if Wales stays they can still call it the UK
posted by theodolite at 9:33 PM on June 23, 2016 [9 favorites]


I see stock market dislocations causing recessions that end up hurting poor, marginalized and oppressed people way way way more than the asset classes.

Fair enough, but it was worship of financial markets that got us into this mess in the first place.
posted by Coda Tronca at 9:33 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


Brexiters were adamant that this wouldn't happen.

I imagine we'll be seeing a lot of things happen that the Brexiters claimed wouldn't. Not that it'll stop them, of course.
posted by zombieflanders at 9:35 PM on June 23, 2016 [18 favorites]


What absolutely appalling news to wake up to. My stomach is sinking as fast as the pound. All I can think is idiots.
posted by Sonny Jim at 9:36 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


@BNONews
BREAKING: Dutch Party for Freedom leader Geert Wilders calls for Dutch EU referendum after Brexit

hahaha holy shit make it stop
posted by triggerfinger at 9:36 PM on June 23, 2016 [13 favorites]


I am patiently waiting for a nice simple explanation of how the Electoral College means this type of thing can't happen in the United States.
posted by yhbc at 9:37 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


I guess if Wales stays they can still call it the UK

They just need to let the Isle of Man and the Channel Islands (which are neither part of the UK nor of the EU) in as home nations to make up for Scotland and Norn Iron.
posted by dhens at 9:38 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Fair enough

It's actually not fair at all and the UK running for the Brexit is absolutely overprivileged and gross and doing further harm on top of the ones that the global markets are already creating. I don't see a polemic here. It's all the same cloth to me.
posted by Annika Cicada at 9:39 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


yhbc, it's not the Electoral College. It's that the last time it was tried, we fought a war over it.
posted by biogeo at 9:39 PM on June 23, 2016 [6 favorites]


BREAKING: Dutch Party for Freedom leader Geert Wilders calls for Dutch EU referendum after Brexit


Hoofbeats, faint, of unknown velocity, in the distance. I hear them. They are getting louder.
posted by lalochezia at 9:39 PM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]


Shite. Looks like I might have to play my Northern Irish dual citizenship card: It has been estimated that as many as six million Britons can claim an Irish-born grandparent
posted by jamespake at 9:39 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


But Parliament can still ignore this, right? Like when Staten Island voted to secede and then nothing happened?
posted by corb at 9:39 PM on June 23, 2016


We're fucked. We're totally fucked.

Guardian has the results graphed by different council demographics here.

Areas with more higher education voted Remain.
Areas with more people when no qualifications voted Leave.
Higher earning areas voted Remain.
Areas with more ABC1 residents voted Remain.
Younger areas voted Remain, older ones voted Leave.
Areas with residents born overseas voted Remain.

We're fucked.
posted by MattWPBS at 9:39 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


YHBC, this kind of thing can't happen in the US but the Electoral College is not the reason why. The reason is the precedent established by Abraham Lincoln in 1861. Any attempt in future at secession will be met with military force and suppressed ruthlessly.

And everyone knows it, so no one will try.
posted by Chocolate Pickle at 9:39 PM on June 23, 2016 [12 favorites]


I can only hope that Cameron, seeing all this doomsday shit go down, will get cold feet on what is technically a non-binding resolution.
posted by savetheclocktower at 9:39 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


Fair enough, but it was worship of financial markets that got us into this mess in the first place.

No it wasn't. It was a bunch of people voting in a referendum. It was a failure of government, a failure of social programs, and a failure of anyone to effectively challenge the growing xenophobia in British politics.
posted by Dysk at 9:41 PM on June 23, 2016 [48 favorites]


We're fucked. We're totally fucked.

More fucked than the Greeks were by the EU?
posted by Coda Tronca at 9:41 PM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]


Corb: Yes, Parliament could choose to ignore the referendum. I don’t believe that will happen however, barring some kind of national emergency level of economic collapse.
posted by pharm at 9:41 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


But Parliament can still ignore this, right?

They can, but I don't think they'd dare to.
posted by chimaera at 9:41 PM on June 23, 2016


corb: But Parliament can still ignore this, right? Like when Staten Island voted to secede and then nothing happened?

Doesn't need Parliamentary approval. Government goes to EU, invokes Article 50 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union, and then there's a two-year countdown until they leave.

But no-one really knows what's going to happen, which is terrifying. See the Guardian for eight questions Cameron must answer - most of which you would have wanted to know before the vote, not after.
posted by Pink Frost at 9:42 PM on June 23, 2016 [8 favorites]


Better Together, they said. EU membership at risk if you vote out they said.

And US$100+ oil will pay for everything, the other lot said. That was then, and this is the nightmare.

If IndyRef2 succeeds, it's only going to be with the help of No+Remain voters who see it as one last chance to stay in Europe. Meanwhile, some polls yesterday suggested that a substantial minority of SNP voters were Leave. Selling IndyRef2 is going to be a whole different kettle of fish from IndyRef1.
posted by rory at 9:42 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


"The lamps are going out all over Europe, we shall not see them lit again in our life-time." Edward Grey, 1914. (+102 years?)
posted by dhens at 9:42 PM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]


Remember Weimar
posted by Apocryphon at 9:42 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


It was worship of financial markets that got us into this mess in the first place.

Eh, it's the separation of financial markets from the fundamental trade goods that they're meant to improve availability of that caused it. And more importantly the fact that a tiny minority of people in the banking sector seem to understand the products they're using.
posted by ambrosen at 9:43 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


I can only hope that Cameron, seeing all this doomsday shit go down, will get cold feet on what is technically a non-binding resolution.

Ignoring the referendum might be a worse idea than leaving the EU in the first place, so I don't think Cameron would do that. Unless for some reason he has a political death wish.
posted by ymgve at 9:43 PM on June 23, 2016


It's weird how badly markets seem to price uncertainty in these things. All the polls gave Leave nearly a 50% chance. The markets were pretty stable going into this -- did they really expect markets to rise 10% in the event of a Remain win? It seems like they took the slight probability of a Remain win as a near-certainty.

Similarly, we're way underpricing the possibility of a Trump win. Even if you think it's just 30%, that's a 30% chance of global catatrophe. A proper market would be down a thousand points the moment it looked like Trump even had a decent chance.
posted by chortly at 9:43 PM on June 23, 2016 [11 favorites]


MattWPS: It’s the revenge of the lumpen-proletariat.
posted by pharm at 9:43 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Yeah. Parliament has to get real and refuse to ratify this. Just because a majority of English and NI voters have proudly announced that they're thick, doesn't mean we have to kill the EU, kill the union, destroy the pound, and commit the nation to complete and utter fucking penury.
posted by Sonny Jim at 9:43 PM on June 23, 2016 [9 favorites]


some kind of national emergency level of economic collapse.

unfolding now?
posted by vrakatar at 9:44 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


We're fucked. We're totally fucked.

More fucked than the Greeks were by the EU?


More fucked than WE would be within the EU. This is not Greece, and that comparison is a complete non-sequitur.
posted by Dysk at 9:44 PM on June 23, 2016 [23 favorites]


More fucked than the Greeks were by the EU?

We've done this to ourselves.
posted by MattWPBS at 9:46 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Just because a majority of English and NI voters have proudly announced that they're thick, doesn't mean we have to kill the EU

Northern Ireland voted majority in favour of remain. England and Wales voted majority leave.
posted by Dysk at 9:47 PM on June 23, 2016


Northern Ireland went Remain, I think, although not by as wide a margin as Scotland did. A majority of English and Welsh voters went for Leave.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 9:47 PM on June 23, 2016


Ignoring the referendum might be a worse idea than leaving the EU in the first place, so I don't think Cameron would do that. Unless for some reason he has a political death wish.

I think he's doomed either way.
posted by Apocryphon at 9:47 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Ignoring the referendum might be a worse idea than leaving the EU in the first place, so I don't think Cameron would do that. Unless for some reason he has a political death wish.

I can only hope Cameron has a political death wish. Yes, that's how slim my hopes are right now.

Though he's not going to have much of a political future either way at this point.
posted by savetheclocktower at 9:47 PM on June 23, 2016


Pretty sure if the US allowed stay/leave votes on secession, there's 5-10 States at risk for a leave majority.
posted by meehawl at 9:48 PM on June 23, 2016 [8 favorites]


I am patiently waiting for a nice simple explanation of how the Electoral College means this type of thing can't happen in the United States.

We don't have direct referendums at the Federal level.

In the US the vote to leave an international treaty organization or free trade league wouldn't be made by citizens at all, it would be made in Congress.
posted by snuffleupagus at 9:48 PM on June 23, 2016 [11 favorites]


To me, a bystander, the most surreal part of all this is the Leave people's adamant declarations that they represent the oppressed working-class interests against the middle-class Remain elites, despite the polls showing that younger voters overwhelmingly favor Remain.

Apparently 18-24 year olds are the wealthiest demo in England, and had dominated UK politics from atop their towers of money up until this referendum.
posted by fatehunter at 9:49 PM on June 23, 2016 [37 favorites]


Apologies to Northern Ireland there. (Thanks, Dysk.) It's early and I'm visibly upset ...
posted by Sonny Jim at 9:50 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


I'd have thought it pretty obvious that what the EU did to the people of Greece proved that it is not an organisation that has the material welfare of ordinary Europeans as a concern. I know people are shocked by all this, but it is a badass neoliberal trade organisation, as others have pointed out above.
posted by Coda Tronca at 9:51 PM on June 23, 2016 [7 favorites]


As a Canadian, I'm pretty sure this voids our arrangement with the Queen. I asked around, and it sounds like our head of state automatically switches to the nearest geographical monarch, which appears to be King Philippe of Belgium.
posted by oulipian at 9:52 PM on June 23, 2016 [11 favorites]




I'd have thought it pretty obvious that what the EU did to the people of Greece proved that it is not an organisation that has the material welfare of ordinary Europeans as a concern. I know people are shocked by all this, but it is a badass neoliberal trade organisation, as others have pointed out above.

...and every government in recent UK history makes it look like Engels, Marx and Che Guevara combined, by comparison.
posted by Dysk at 9:53 PM on June 23, 2016 [13 favorites]


Gosh, this is just terrible. I feel for all Britons in the wake of this... this madness.

The only condolence I can offer is this link to a BuzzFeed list of 40 cute animal gifs, which is not much but was a bit of a pleasant distraction to me just now.
posted by Homeboy Trouble at 9:53 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


How does Europe go forward with the major financial center of the region now out of the union? Do Brexitors really plan on mass deportations (on both sides of the coin)? What is the cost of managing such a major transition within the small space of two years? How did Leave voters never consider any of this a possibility?
posted by codacorolla at 9:53 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


We're fucked.

Don't worry, Boris has promised to apologize at some point in the future, if this turns out to have been a bad idea.

Pretty sure if the US allowed stay/leave votes on secession, there's 5-10 States at risk for a leave majority.

#texit is already a thing on Twitter.
posted by effbot at 9:54 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


So does Cameron resign/get ousted over this?
posted by TwoStride at 9:55 PM on June 23, 2016


Pretty sure if the US allowed stay/leave votes on secession, there's 5-10 States at risk for a leave majority.

Texit.
posted by Pater Aletheias at 9:55 PM on June 23, 2016 [7 favorites]


On R4 just now, UKIP representative vowing to never STFU or go away.

Die in a horrible fire, UKIP.

R4: "Vote Leave has the political capital to make demands of David Cameron."
posted by Quagkapi at 9:55 PM on June 23, 2016


I think the EU did that as a result of pressures made by the wealthy EU nations that demanded austerity measures.

What happened to Greece was not inflicted by some EU separate from the UK, and I I have little love for the EU as a result of the shit they pulled on Greece.

But that said the answer to that horrible chapter in history was not to light a trash fire that could potentially destabilize the global economy because immigrants in Calais.
posted by Annika Cicada at 9:55 PM on June 23, 2016 [7 favorites]


Yes, but probably not right away.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 9:55 PM on June 23, 2016


I'd have thought it pretty obvious that what the EU did to the people of Greece proved that it is not an organisation that has the material welfare of ordinary Europeans as a concern. I know people are shocked by all this, but it is a badass neoliberal trade organisation, as others have pointed out above.

I'm not saying it is, so stop straw manning. What we've just fucking done is hand an unholy amount of power to the right wing of a party who are already worse than anything about the EU by an order of magnitude. That's the people who are going to rewrite our fucking rights.
posted by MattWPBS at 9:56 PM on June 23, 2016 [26 favorites]


Well. This is a moment like the Kingdom of Poland legislating itself out of existence in the 18th century. Republics are a bundle of choices.

The very (faint) silver lining: Greece and Spain can expect more leniency from an EU desperate to avert secession fever, Brussels might actually heed this shot against the bows and implement more meaningful transparency and democracy in the MEP system.... uh, what else?

Oh yeah, America's economy keeps going strong as the Euro-zone falters. Pretty much the only thing keeping the dollar strong is the way that everybody else keeps imploding: China last year, Europe this year.

No silver lining for Brits though. Nothing but dark clouds for you lot. Sorry.
posted by LeRoienJaune at 9:57 PM on June 23, 2016 [7 favorites]


I mean, yes Cameron gets booted, but probably not today.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 9:57 PM on June 23, 2016


codacorolla - Paris and Frankfurt have some banks that are ready to roll out the red carpet.
posted by Wretch729 at 9:58 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


As a Canadian, I'm pretty sure this voids our arrangement with the Queen. I asked around, and it sounds like our head of state automatically switches to the nearest geographical monarch, which appears to be King Philippe of Belgium.

Just skipping Beyonce like that, huh?
posted by DynamiteToast at 9:58 PM on June 23, 2016 [73 favorites]


I saw a billboard yesterday in Florida or Georgia that read #cecede and a web address. Chilling...
posted by Windopaene at 9:58 PM on June 23, 2016


"Scotland will seek independence now. Cameron's legacy will be breaking up two unions. Neither needed to happen." -- @jk_rowling
posted by zachlipton at 9:59 PM on June 23, 2016 [29 favorites]


If the EU eases up on Greece and Spain (and Italy?) and makes the right noises, and the Pound and FTSE stay depressed enough in the short term, then maybe that will make Indy2 happen and we can step back from the brink.
posted by snuffleupagus at 9:59 PM on June 23, 2016


I feel bad for my family in Wales. Nobody deserves to suffer economic terrorism at the hands of cowardly, racist English.
posted by a lungful of dragon at 9:59 PM on June 23, 2016


How does Europe go forward with the major financial center of the region now out of the union?

Ordinary Brits wanted the bankers gone.
posted by Coda Tronca at 10:00 PM on June 23, 2016


A majority of Welsh voters voted to leave.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 10:00 PM on June 23, 2016 [12 favorites]


I still say that this won't stand. I will simply be *shocked* if the ultra-wealthy let the "little people" have any hint of self-determination. Wealthy elites simply refuse to give up power to the "unwashed masses."

I'm sorry to sound defeatist, but I would say I'm more of a realist. Money=Power. Always has, and always will.

It will be interesting to see how the elites twist their manipulation of the results of this into something that seemingly complies with the "leave" vote. It ain't gonna happen.
posted by InsertNiftyNameHere at 10:01 PM on June 23, 2016 [8 favorites]


I feel bad for my family in Wales. Nobody deserves to suffer economic terrorism at the hands of cowardly, racist English.

I hear you, but Wales also voted to leave.
posted by Pater Aletheias at 10:01 PM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]


Leave has officially crossed the 50% threshold.

.
posted by oulipian at 10:03 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


One of the more revealing moments of the Brexit campaign came when Michael Gove, a Conservative Outer once close to Prime Minister David Cameron, said: “People in this country have had enough of experts.” There it is: a celebration of ignorance that writes the opening line of the populists’ playbook. How long before Mr Gove, a former education secretary, is piling books on to bonfires?
Philip Stephens, Perils of a populist paean to ignorance, Financial Times (23 June 2016).
posted by Sonny Jim at 10:03 PM on June 23, 2016 [19 favorites]


Okay yeah, as amusing as it would be to see UK identity in-fighting revert to Celts (Britons) against Anglo-Saxons (British?) in some anachronistic nonexistent family feud, this referendum cut into all sides. To label all of this the fault of England or Wales is playing into the hands of the tribalists.
posted by Apocryphon at 10:04 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


I was surprised that yr hen wlad is so full of Little Englanders.
posted by Harvey Kilobit at 10:04 PM on June 23, 2016


I feel bad for my family in Wales. Nobody deserves to suffer economic terrorism at the hands of cowardly, racist English.

Very classy.
posted by veedubya at 10:05 PM on June 23, 2016 [7 favorites]


Ugh. I truly hope the impact of this is less awful than anticipated.
posted by great_radio at 10:05 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


I don't see why everyone is so emotional about this? It's not like the Island is sailing away to the South Atlantic or something.... there's a ton of money they won't be sending to the EU, there will be one less layer of government on top of everything... things go back to the way it was before the EU, people need passports to travel, imports get taxed, and local businesses have a bit of protection from offshoring/outsourcing of jobs to places with lower standards of living.

From far away here in Indiana, as working person, it seems to be a good thing to get out of the EU if you're not salaried or rich.

I'm willing to be convinced otherwise.
posted by MikeWarot at 10:06 PM on June 23, 2016 [7 favorites]


I just woke up and heard the news.

FFS.

As a British expat living and working in the EU, I now have months of stress and uncertainty to deal with. And potentially a total upheaval of my entire family and professional life.

Horrible, horrible stupid fucking fuck.

Fuck.
posted by ZipRibbons at 10:06 PM on June 23, 2016 [33 favorites]


Ordinary Brits wanted the bankers gone

I've never heard an "ordinary Brit" saying this. I've heard concern over immigration, and that's pretty much it.
posted by howfar at 10:07 PM on June 23, 2016 [13 favorites]


I'm willing to be convinced otherwise.

How'd you like your money to be worth 10% less tomorrow?

That number will probably grow.
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:08 PM on June 23, 2016 [18 favorites]


This isn't about nationality; this is about class, an awful state school system, a demagogic tabloid media owned by right-wing crooks and loons, and a sense of gleeful nihilism bred by three decades of people feeling that their lives don't matter because of where they were born. That state of affairs cuts across national boundaries within the UK, unfortunately.
posted by Sonny Jim at 10:08 PM on June 23, 2016 [14 favorites]


From a completely personal short sighted view - this has fucked our family over in multiple ways over the coming months (overseas trip planned to see our families now looking less affordable) and long term (the value of my husband's pension, do we want to raise our child in a country that is obvious so stupid as to do this to itself and a million other things). But what has me blinking back the tears here is that the UK has just thrown everything, and I do mean everything, away for some misguided, uninformed bigotry. Not even self-interested bigotry because it is based on falsehoods.

I am just hoping that Scotland offer ancestry citizenship or at least visas when they go Independent (and they will). It will screw over our finances even more regarding future pensions and stuff if we move there but fuck it, at least they are decent sensible people up there.
posted by Megami at 10:09 PM on June 23, 2016 [10 favorites]




I'm willing to be convinced otherwise.
posted by MikeWarot at 10:06 PM on June 23 [+] [!]


Here's what we've just thrown away


(I linked to this at the top of the thread)
posted by lalochezia at 10:09 PM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]


Well I went to sleep at 12 pretty cheerfully.

Fuck, fuck, fuck.

At least there's Cameron's resignation to look forward to now.
posted by brilliantmistake at 10:09 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


I don't see why everyone is so emotional about this?

Some of us are EU citizens living in the UK, or UK citizens living in the EU. This has the potential to majorly impact our lives. Others are our friends, partners, coworkers. And still more people are recognising that the EU is less bad for the unprivileged than any UK government in the last many decades, and certainly than the one we actually have now.

But I'm sure it just looks different in Indiana.
posted by Dysk at 10:10 PM on June 23, 2016 [93 favorites]


The contrast between MikeWarot's comment and that of ZipRibbons directly beneath it is sadly instructive.
posted by dhens at 10:10 PM on June 23, 2016 [26 favorites]


local businesses have a bit of protection from offshoring/outsourcing of jobs to places with lower standards of living.

What? Why? Have you actually read anything about this, or are you just guessing what it means? Because I don't understand this comment at all. We are likely to *lose* businesses, as large firms flee.
posted by howfar at 10:10 PM on June 23, 2016 [9 favorites]


Ordinary Brits wanted the bankers immigrants gone
yes, I know we all hate "FTFY" comments, but this is so obvious
posted by oneswellfoop at 10:11 PM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]


This is why we all need to be terrified of the effect of low-information voters.
posted by TwoStride at 10:12 PM on June 23, 2016 [25 favorites]


Ordinary Brits wanted the bankers gone

So they voted to isolate themselves on this godforsaken island with them!
posted by Dysk at 10:12 PM on June 23, 2016 [7 favorites]


I've seen mentions of another independence vote for Scotland and even the possibility of Ireland unification. Theoretically, could London secede and become a nation-state like Monaco or Singapore?

Because if "ordinary Brits" want the bankers gone and the people of London want to stay in EU...
posted by fatehunter at 10:12 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


A good and somewhat technical breakdown of "what happens next." Essentially, it will take years to play out, and the EU may force the UK to trigger Article 50, a fast-track to reverting to WTO rules for trading with Europe: Britain has voted to leave the EU – what happens next?
posted by My Dad at 10:13 PM on June 23, 2016


I'm willing to be convinced otherwise.

Even if you wave away the obvious negative economic effects, the Leave campaign was driven by a xenophobia against immigrants from Europe and immigrants from the rest of the world more broadly. Brexit will empower this strain of jingoistic nationalism in the UK, and in Europe more broadly. Generally speaking, the world is better off if those trends aren't running hot in Europe.
posted by fitnr at 10:13 PM on June 23, 2016 [17 favorites]


What the hell is an "ordinary Brit"
posted by Existential Dread at 10:13 PM on June 23, 2016 [12 favorites]


So what happens now? A few very very quick predictions:

In the short term we can expect an outbreak of soothing rhetoric from the likes of Johnson and Gove: don't worry, the sun is shining, Britain is still here, no need to panic.

Cameron will have to go. There will be calls for him to stay on for the sake of stability, but his authority has been so badly damaged that I can't see how he can survive. He will go, and go quickly. Johnson will probably succeed him.

It's important to realise that Johnson/Gove and Farage represent two totally different anti-EU positions. Johnson and Gove aren't particularly concerned about immigration, they oppose the EU on the grounds of political and legal sovereignty. Farage doesn't give a toss about the intellectual arguments for sovereignty, his sole concern is immigration. Gove I suspect is privately appalled by Farage's racism, and will do all he can to exclude Farage and UKIP from any significant role.

Johnson's main interest is himself. In fact I wonder how committed he is to leaving the EU at all. He certainly doesn't have the appetite for the months of long and boring treaty negotations that would have to follow. It's possible he may trot off to Brussels, exact some concessions, and then trot back again announcing 'good news chaps, we don't have to leave after all'.

Of course it could all turn out differently, and I can imagine other possible scenarios. Johnson and Gove fail to get the enabling legislation through Parliament, they call a snap election, and a Tory/UKIP electoral pact is followed by five years of a Tory/UKIP coalition government ..

The tragedy is that the Conservative Party has moved sharply to the right just at the time when the Labour Party is least equipped to offer a credible alternative.
posted by verstegan at 10:13 PM on June 23, 2016 [11 favorites]


christ. to those asking why people might be emotional about this, it's not like history has said anything instructive about why a resurgence of far-right nationalism and economic austerity might be troubling. time to turn to The Day Today's video for Britain in times of crisis
posted by Collaterly Sisters at 10:14 PM on June 23, 2016 [38 favorites]


What the hell is an "ordinary Brit"

I think they're related to the "real people" and "decent people" Farage claimed this as a victory for.

Not like me. I'm obviously fake and indecent. And foreign.
posted by Dysk at 10:15 PM on June 23, 2016 [17 favorites]


Well, here we are, and its a beautiful day. Proud of my city for rejecting this bullshit.
posted by threetwentytwo at 10:16 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


Cameron will have to go. There will be calls for him to stay on for the sake of stability,

I read somewhere (this thread?) that Johnson and others wrote letters to Cameron, imploring him to stay on "no matter what the result." I think any desire by Johnson for Cameron to stay on is motivated entirely by political pragmatism: in the chaos and volatility that is sure to dominate politics in the coming weeks and months, Cameron sure makes a good lightning rod and fall guy.
posted by My Dad at 10:16 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


@MikeWarot

The problem here is that a member nation leaving the EU is like trying to unscramble an egg. While the UK is a sovereign nation with its own money and laws, it has for decades been a member of a supranational entity explicitly designed to forge cultural, legal, and economic ties among its members. There are millions of UK citizens in other EU countries and other EU citizens in the UK, and untold arrangements and understandings crossing borders. It's hard to say exactly what's going to happen to any of those ties over the next couple years since there's no roadmap for an exit like this.

I suppose you can imagine what Indiana unilaterally seceding from the USA would be like although that's really an apples and oranges comparison.
posted by 3urypteris at 10:20 PM on June 23, 2016 [8 favorites]


So you are OK with references to Hitler? (Not Mike)
posted by futz at 10:21 PM on June 23, 2016


Californian here. I'm pretty sure you're fucked. I don't think everyone's a racist, though.
posted by chimaera at 10:21 PM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]


Yeah, the idea of an "ordinary Brit" is ridiculous. What I should say is that, save for one person who believes in conspiracy theories, I haven't encountered one pro-leave argument among people I actually know that doesn't invoke immigration, and I haven't encountered one that makes reference to the desire to get rid of the banking industry
posted by howfar at 10:22 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


England has became a country again.
posted by buzzman at 10:22 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


As a Canadian, I'm pretty sure this voids our arrangement with the Queen. I asked around, and it sounds like our head of state automatically switches to the nearest geographical monarch, which appears to be King Philippe of Belgium.

Drat, Princess Kawananakoa lost out by 200 miles.
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:23 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Indiana doesn’t have it’s own currency & defensible borders. So not really the same thing at all.
posted by pharm at 10:23 PM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]


MikeWarot: "From far away here in Indiana, as working person, it seems to be a good thing to get out of the EU if you're not salaried or rich.

I'm willing to be convinced otherwise.
"

Keep watching; I don't see any way things are better for working class and poor people 1, 2, 5 years from now. And I bet they also lose relatively compared to their cohorts in say Germany.
posted by Mitheral at 10:24 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


Why do I keep thinking about Hellblazer from the Thatcher years?
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:24 PM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]


Californian here. I'm pretty sure we're all fucked. I don't think everyone's a racist either, though.
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:25 PM on June 23, 2016 [6 favorites]


I wonder if all those people who voted Leave because it meant getting rid of immigrants (and there were plenty) are going to feel at the fact there are going to still be immigrants in the NHS, and plenty of other jobs, but now they will be from India. And Nigeria. And Pakistan. And Bangladesh. You know, those brown skinned Muslim people that you don't like.
posted by Megami at 10:25 PM on June 23, 2016 [7 favorites]


The world feels so much less safe today. I am so sorry for all who will suffer from this. I suspect we all will feel ill effects. But don't take any grief from US people. We elected Bush twice.
posted by madamjujujive at 10:26 PM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]


What the hell is an "ordinary Brit"

Basil Fawlty, apparently.
posted by Automocar at 10:26 PM on June 23, 2016 [26 favorites]


I've taken "ordinary Brit" as code for white, not part of the aristocracy, and a parallel of Plumber Joe from the 2012/2008 elections.
posted by toomanycurls at 10:27 PM on June 23, 2016 [11 favorites]


I think they're related to the "real people" and "decent people" Farage claimed this as a victory for.

Whereas Farage is a "lizard person."
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:27 PM on June 23, 2016 [9 favorites]


god, I bet MI5 could have prevented all this if it weren't for those damnable pen users.
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 10:28 PM on June 23, 2016 [22 favorites]


Very classy.

Farage is clearly the pound shop Enoch Powell who everyone was warned about, but he ain't no Welshman, and UKIP and its fascist agenda didn't originate out of Wales, however close the tally.
posted by a lungful of dragon at 10:28 PM on June 23, 2016


This doesn't happen in a vacuum. Trading doesn't start in the US for a few hours and the Dow is already projected to open 700 points down.

I can't even get into xe.com at the moment because I'm sure everybody and their uncle is trying to figure out how much less their pound is worth than it was this morning. (Already the largest drop ever, by far)

If we're lucky, the US economy won't come tumbling after. On the brighter side, dollar cost averaging will mean that long-term growth will be fine. Assuming we even have a long-term, I'm getting a whole pre-Archduke Franz Ferdinand vibe out of the world now.
posted by fifteen schnitzengruben is my limit at 10:30 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


I guess polls aren't that accurate when the question forces someone to admit something their ashamed of (exiting the EU). I wonder how much this effect masks the support Trump really has?
posted by mulligan at 10:30 PM on June 23, 2016 [7 favorites]


Trump has made that claim in his own speeches.
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:32 PM on June 23, 2016


This is why I've been trying to tell Americans not to be complacent about Trump. A lot of people were sure this would be remain. The betting markets and the financial markets were all going 'Remain'. As were the polls. It's not over until it's over.

And the UK is certainly over.
posted by knapah at 10:32 PM on June 23, 2016 [23 favorites]


I think they're related to the "real people" and "decent people" Farage claimed this as a victory for.

I expect a real Brit is like a real American, where your realness tends to be inversely proportional to the melanin content of your skin.
posted by Justinian at 10:32 PM on June 23, 2016 [17 favorites]


Yeah, the idea of an "ordinary Brit" is ridiculous.

'Ordinary people' has been used a few times in this thread - by howfar for one - and meant nothing sinister in this context. It seems to have set some people off when coupled with 'Brit'.
posted by Coda Tronca at 10:33 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


Slightly calmer reaction:

Frankly, I'm not surprised. To the constant dismay of my friends, I have been predicting that any referendum on membership means Britain leaving the EU since Cameron made the promise in the last election. Then they decided to hold it during the euros, which didn't help. I briefly entertained some optimism briefly last night when the polls and financial market indicated a remain vote, which was obviously a mistake.

Do not underestimate people's willingness to cut off their nose to spite their face. Doubly so to spite someone else's.
posted by Dysk at 10:33 PM on June 23, 2016 [12 favorites]


I wonder how much this effect masks the support Trump really has?

Feels like a long time til November, dont it! One hell of a year!

Daniel Hannan on the news now, assuring EU migrants that all that will change is their voting rights. How he feels enabled to state that with authority is yet to be seen.
posted by threetwentytwo at 10:33 PM on June 23, 2016


I wasn't familiar with Farage before the last few days. I wasn't looking at the television and a British gentleman was speaking. I thought "that sounds like the head baddie from V for Vendetta." I looked over and saw who it was. That's when I learned about Nigel Farage.
posted by Justinian at 10:33 PM on June 23, 2016 [14 favorites]


I'm sincerely even more worried for all those refugees from Syria trying to find shelter. This cannot be a good development for them. At all.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 10:34 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


'Ordinary people' has been used a few times in this thread - by howfar for one - and meant nothing sinister in this context. It seems to have set some people off when coupled with 'Brit'.

It's the way it's inherently exclusionary in a way that ordinary people isn't. We're not concerned with any old person, only Brits need apply. Ordinary Brits, mind, none of your immigrant or second-generation Brits.
posted by Dysk at 10:35 PM on June 23, 2016 [12 favorites]


I don't see why everyone is so emotional about this? It's not like the Island is sailing away to the South Atlantic or something.... there's a ton of money they won't be sending to the EU, there will be one less layer of government on top of everything... things go back to the way it was before the EU, people need passports to travel, imports get taxed, and local businesses have a bit of protection from offshoring/outsourcing of jobs to places with lower standards of living.

A large number of my colleagues have just had their lives thrown into turmoil. My salary is worth less than it was yesterday. I won't be able to travel as easily in the future. I won't be able to work overseas as easily in the future. My friends who have their own small independent businesses just saw their costs rise massively, and the prospect of trading tariffs in the future. We're going to lose protection from our own government trying to turn us into a country with low standards of employee rights. I could carry on for ages.

My Grandmother’s Scottish, hopefully that'll put an ancestry citizenship on the cards.
posted by MattWPBS at 10:37 PM on June 23, 2016 [38 favorites]


This is truly, fourth-world sad. But, I mean, when the body politic keeps a known dead-pig fucker in charge and lets him put the whole economy on one vote cuz a immigrants....I shudder for Great Britain, and I pray for you each. I pray to God this does not portend Trump. In any case God Help us all. Also, please recognize the privilege in "willing" to be convinced, and thank you for at least willing to be convinced, unlike the simple majority of GB voters.
posted by riverlife at 10:37 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Whereas Farage is a "lizard person."

Farage's face looks like one of those Trump "Pepe" memes.
posted by My Dad at 10:37 PM on June 23, 2016


Well fair enough, I should have said 'ordinary people' then. But as I am a Londoner, I grew up with 'Brits' of every ethnic origin.
posted by Coda Tronca at 10:37 PM on June 23, 2016


But don't take any grief from US people. We elected Bush twice.

*ahem* We elected Bush once...
posted by 3urypteris at 10:37 PM on June 23, 2016 [68 favorites]


Daniel Hannan on the news now, assuring EU migrants that all that will change is their voting rights. How he feels enabled to state that with authority is yet to be seen.

"If you're an EU citizen, don't worry. Your status won't change. You just won't be able to vote in MEP or local elections."

So my status won't change, except that I will now be utterly disenfranchised in every way on every level and unable to vote in anything more than an Internet poll? How is that not my status changing significantly?
posted by Dysk at 10:38 PM on June 23, 2016 [28 favorites]


Nigel Farage, the Ukip leader, has told ITV’s Good Morning Britain that he thought it was a mistake for the Vote Leave campaign to say that it could save £350m a week by leaving the EU and that the money could go to the NHS.
posted by Megami at 10:41 PM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]


Ok, so a lot of egg-unscrambling has to happen... that makes sense to be in terms I can relate to. A lot of disruption is going to happen, which makes me sad.

The economic outcome of this may or may not be good, in general. Everyone thought Iceland was nuts when they kicked out the bankers, but they seem to be recovering quicker for it. I wouldn't count this one as decided either way.

Racism... yeah, that's a thing... it sucks.

Thanks for explaining it to me, MeFi.
posted by MikeWarot at 10:41 PM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]


"I'm getting a whole pre-Archduke Franz Ferdinand vibe out of the world now."

Yeah I'm trying not to overreact and Godwin my own brain but I don't want to UNDERreact either, and the National Front and literal Nazis getting all excited about it is not helping with my assessment of the appropriate level of panic here. (£150bn evaporating from the FTSE is probably plenty of panic to start with, I guess.)

Part of me just can't accept that people looked at this amazing utopian project for peace and said, "Sure, it stopped a thousand years of non-stop European warfare that frequently sucked in the entire known world, but I really just don't like how they regulate sausages so balls to all that."

Part of me is so angry at how the leave campaign manipulated voters' real concerns about the economy and their lives and livelihoods with outright lies, and with false promises that will never be delivered.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 10:42 PM on June 23, 2016 [123 favorites]


oh my god britain what have you done
posted by poffin boffin at 10:43 PM on June 23, 2016 [12 favorites]


working person, it seems to be a good thing to get out of the EU if you're not salaried or rich

In Europe, working people have salaries, in general.
posted by ambrosen at 10:43 PM on June 23, 2016 [8 favorites]


Nigel Farage, the Ukip leader, has told ITV’s Good Morning Britain that he thought it was a mistake for the Vote Leave campaign to say that it could save £350m a week by leaving the EU and that the money could go to the NHS.

Well that didn't take long
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 10:44 PM on June 23, 2016 [28 favorites]


All the time, it was... We finally really did it. [falls to his knees screaming] YOU MANIACS! YOU BLEW IT UP! AH, DAMN YOU! GOD DAMN YOU ALL TO HELL!
posted by crossoverman at 10:45 PM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]


Human-flesh-eating lizard man Nigel Farage, the nazi party leader, cackled maniacally on good morning britain as he devoured a child. "it was all liessssss, you foolssss!"
posted by poffin boffin at 10:46 PM on June 23, 2016 [14 favorites]


Birmingham, city of immigrants, votes to leave.

God, half the city centre has been built with EU money.

It seems there is a very close correlation between areas of poverty and inequality and the Leave vote.
posted by brilliantmistake at 10:47 PM on June 23, 2016 [7 favorites]


Yeah, I have had salaried factory jobs and bar jobs. And hourly-paid doctor jobs, but they were pretty well-paid and not really what you're talking about. You get the same benefits either way, we don't have that divide like you do in the US.
posted by tinkletown at 10:47 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


working person, it seems to be a good thing to get out of the EU if you're not salaried or rich

In Europe, working people have salaries, in general.


I think the difference here is wage (per-hour / per-day) pay vs a monthly/annual salary, which tend to be from different types of occupations. (Not that I agree with the idea that non-salaried workers should support Brexit.)
posted by dhens at 10:47 PM on June 23, 2016


Welp, congratulations to Scotland on their inevitable independence, I guess.
posted by XQUZYPHYR at 10:47 PM on June 23, 2016 [28 favorites]


The border between Ireland and Northern Ireland is about to get interesting again.
posted by TWinbrook8 at 10:49 PM on June 23, 2016 [9 favorites]


Bunch of quitters, no wonder they lost the empire.
posted by ckape at 10:53 PM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]


Nigel Farage, the Ukip leader, has told ITV’s Good Morning Britain that he thought it was a mistake for the Vote Leave campaign to say that it could save £350m a week by leaving the EU and that the money could go to the NHS.

This will only be the first of many many promises brexit was sold with that will be backtracked in the coming weeks and months. Farage has less of a sense of subtlety or timing than most politicians, of course.
posted by Dysk at 10:53 PM on June 23, 2016 [29 favorites]


Otoh, how long will it be until another referendum can be held?
posted by Apocryphon at 10:54 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Otoh, how long will it be until another referendum can be held?


It was as clear a majority as anyone could ask for. You can't tell the people to keep voting until they get it right.
posted by Coda Tronca at 10:57 PM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]


I have one positive thought. When Farage's racists turn out to be just as good at fucking over the working class as Cameron's secret racists we will finally get this socialist utopia I've been dreaming about since I was a kid.

As if. Fuck.
posted by fullerine at 10:57 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Apropos of nothing, I love that Guardian histogram of the UK. It's like Britain as reimagined by Botero.
posted by 3urypteris at 10:57 PM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]


I feel like about a year from now, England (and I guess Wales) will probably be looking something like this
posted by DoctorFedora at 10:58 PM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]


this is just a spectacularly bad vote overall
posted by DoctorFedora at 10:58 PM on June 23, 2016


Otoh, how long will it be until another referendum can be held?

Yeah, I'm kinda wondering about the practicality of that. Like, in a week or a month or whatever, as the very serious consequences of this sink in and the lies become clear, can another referendum be called? Like, can they call it the Are You Fucking Serious Referendum of the Referendum?
posted by scaryblackdeath at 10:58 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


on the development side, it's fairly obvious it's going to hit grantees funded by DFID and FCO hard.
posted by cendawanita at 11:00 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


It was as clear a majority as anyone could ask for. You can't tell the people to keep voting until they get it right.

But that's what a leave vote is isn't it? You only have to do it once, and then it's done and it's irrevocable, no matter how many stay votes you held previously, or how many would succeed in the future?

It's utterly ridiculous to change the entire structure of a government on a sort of vote that only once has to achieve a little over 50% one way vs. the other.
posted by Zalzidrax at 11:00 PM on June 23, 2016 [9 favorites]


Nigel Farage, the Ukip leader, has told ITV’s Good Morning Britain that he thought it was a mistake for the Vote Leave campaign to say that it could save £350m a week by leaving the EU and that the money could go to the NHS.

Oh no, poor Nigel! What terrible luck for him to have only just learned that this wasn't actually true, just after the results came in, and when he'd spent his entire campaign doing the best he could to be honest. He must feel so upset :(

Still, I'm sure he's never advocated NHS privatisation or anything, so it'll all be safe in his hands.

(ha. ha. ha.)
posted by Catseye at 11:00 PM on June 23, 2016 [13 favorites]


Otoh, how long will it be until another referendum can be held?

Here in Scotland, after this news? Oooh, give it about, I don't know - ten minutes?
posted by Catseye at 11:01 PM on June 23, 2016 [14 favorites]


i don't understand these people saying carney is likely to raise rates
do they think he is a bond villain
posted by PMdixon at 11:03 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


It was as clear a majority as anyone could ask for. You can't tell the people to keep voting until they get it right.

Not so clear six months down the line, as the actual repercussions appear. Would Parliament even be able to "follow the will of the people" if by that time people are so anti-Brexit that they're voting MPs out of office?
posted by Apocryphon at 11:04 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


I have to wonder how many Leave voters felt an instant pang of regret when Farage decided to crib from ID4 in his victory speech
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 11:06 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


England has became a country again.
A much smaller, much more isolated country. Good luck with that.
posted by oneswellfoop at 11:07 PM on June 23, 2016 [8 favorites]


I am so sorry to hear this.

.
posted by GrammarMoses at 11:08 PM on June 23, 2016


MikeWarot - The discussion has focused on Britain and rightfully so since that's the point of this thread and it's too early to know what the broader consequences might be. But for me the nightmare scenario, and I'm not saying it's likely just the nightmare for me, is as follows:

The UK leaving the EU crashes the UK economy and the Eurozone, triggering a global financial crisis. The economic turmoil sweeps Donald Trump into power in the US and empowers right wing nationalists throughout Europe not to mention leaving a generation already hurt by the 2008 bust even poorer. Acrimony between the European powers combined with Trump's isolationism destabilize the NATO alliance giving Russia room to make yet more mischief in Eastern Europe. At the same time, the economic uncertainty contributes to even more turmoil in the middle east and compromises the western powers' ability to confront ISIS. This global instability (don't forget China has been having problems since last year) leaves the Paris Agreement on Climate languishing, even as 2016 sees record breaking temperatures (May was the 13 month in a row to break global temperature records per NOAA). Within a decade the whole mess triggers waves of refugees that make the Syria crisis look like a school field trip. War in the Balkans. War in countries that had been dependent on oil money. It gets worse from there.

I'm not saying it's likely, but it's more likely than I thought it was yesterday that's for sure.
posted by Wretch729 at 11:08 PM on June 23, 2016 [47 favorites]


I have to wonder how many Leave voters felt an instant pang of regret...

I wonder how many Leave voters thought they were making a symbolic vote to stick it to the man but secretly thinking Remain would win in the end.
posted by dhens at 11:09 PM on June 23, 2016 [29 favorites]


I really don't think this turn of events has shifted us into The Darkest Timeline, but we're definitely officially into a more chaotic timeline than we were yesterday. What happens with the UK? Assumably Scoxit (you heard it here first folks) but what about Northern Ireland? Wales? Holy shit the regions of England itself?

And in the EU, what happens with Catalonia, Veneto, Wallonia, the Basque parts of Spain and France with respect to their status with in their status-quo nations? Greece and Spain and Italy within the Eurozone? Gert Wilders just called for a Dutch membership referendum, will that happen and/or will other nations do the same? And what about the nations in line to join the Union? And how is this all going to play out with Russia and the USA and the world at large?

Someone said it above, yes this is absolutely a date for the history books.
posted by 3urypteris at 11:09 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


Re: Texit, there are about as many people in Texas as there are people who voted in the UK referendum. Say half of them are eligible to vote. If Texas had a vote tomorrow to secede, I can almost guarantee that it would succeed, no matter how bug fuck insane the idea is. And thinking about the position I would be in, were that to happen, (if it were allowed, and rebellion wouldn't be crushed instantaneously by weapons of war), has made me much more empathetic to people like Dysk and others.

This is a huge sea change, but the thing I don't hear anyone talking about is how this is a bonanza for the top 10% of the monied class. people with assets to play in the markets tomorrow are going to make a fucking killing. Seriously, stocks and currencies will be a fire sale when the markets open. It sucks for everyone else,but the rich are going shopping tomorrow. Because frankly, nothing that happens will ever hurt the money class. The rest of us are doomed no matter what.
posted by SecretAgentSockpuppet at 11:10 PM on June 23, 2016 [21 favorites]


What have we done?

Dear Metafilter. I am English. I am not a racist. I voted Remain. I believe in European union, and the freedoms, rights and responsibilities it entails, based on its history in the 20th century. I campaigned on the streets, I handed out leaflets, I talked to people, I listened to people.

It is impossible for me to take in what has happened. My world has changed, and in no way for the better. I have friends I love whose lives are now thrown into turmoil, and a country I love now thrown into turmoil.

And for what?

England is lost.

I am, however, in Scotland. I don't know what I can do to return to the EU, but I wish to do it, and I think I'm in the best place I can be to make that happen.

The vote was a result of a failure of politics, not because of racism or closed-mindedness or stupidity. People want what's best for themselves and those they know: they have been sold down the river, and they knew it. But nobody who knew what had happened could or would tell them why, and others used that vacuum...

But sorry, everyone. I did what I could. It wasn't enough.
posted by Devonian at 11:10 PM on June 23, 2016 [99 favorites]


But that's what a leave vote is isn't it? You only have to do it once, and then it's done and it's irrevocable, no matter how many stay votes you held previously, or how many would succeed in the future?

Some independence referendums (e.g. Montenegro ) have used a threshold above 50% for precisely this reason. Had they done this here, I'm sure people would view it as Cameron rigging the results, but it's not that ridiculous to require a supermajority for such major changes.

I mean, heck, we just needed a supermajority here to enact a fairly small parcel tax to pay for wetlands restoration, yet 50%+1 is enough to turn the UK upside-down?
posted by zachlipton at 11:11 PM on June 23, 2016 [8 favorites]


good luck scotland, we're all counting on you.
posted by poffin boffin at 11:11 PM on June 23, 2016 [9 favorites]


I don't even know what to say.

We're an EU/US couple working in academia (why yes I am partially EU funded) and a related field in the UK, and those pounds dropping? That's our savings. The ones we were scraping together for our move and new home in not Britain.

We would've been in the US, but my wife was looking for an academic position in 2012 and guess what the US' take on same-sex couples was back then? Anyone remember DOMA?

So homophobia kept us out of the US, and now that we could go xenophobia has shattered our savings and made our futures - even in the short term - way unstable. Plus she's a visible minority so that's always fun when you live in a boiling cauldron of hate!

On the bright side we can get out. A lot of other people who are going to suffer the consequences can't. And there will be suffering, even more than there already has been (and that's with Jo Cox murdered over this).
posted by harujion at 11:12 PM on June 23, 2016 [54 favorites]


Otoh, how long will it be until another referendum can be held?

If you mean on Brexit, probably never. As was already said, I don't think you can have a "do over" vote on this.

If you mean Scottish independence, I imagine this will happen before the UK separation is finalized, which if I'm reading correctly will be withing two years. Literally all of Scotland voted to Remain; with the entire mentality of Brexit being national sovereignty, there's no way to justify denying another vote if polls start showing a majority for independence.

If they actually go through with this, this won't be the UK leaving the EU. It will be England leaving it, because the UK will cease to exist. There's simply no way a country that essentially just voted to define itself by cultural and ethnic disparity from the rest of Europe can sustain its own internal cultural and ethnic disparity. The center cannot hold.
posted by XQUZYPHYR at 11:15 PM on June 23, 2016 [32 favorites]


Texas is not going to vote to secede.
posted by Apocryphon at 11:16 PM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]


good luck scotland, we're all counting on you.

I don't know, I'm pretty hyped at the prospects for the reunification of Ireland. We can have multiple groundbreaking map revisions.
posted by Apocryphon at 11:17 PM on June 23, 2016 [13 favorites]


You can't tell the people to keep voting until they get it right.

Sure you can - the pro-EU oligarchs have done it several times.
posted by cmonkey at 11:18 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


My heart goes out to everyone in the UK who is harmed by this decision.
posted by Annika Cicada at 11:21 PM on June 23, 2016 [19 favorites]


Congratulations UK, you've done something that is going to actively and directly harm millions of people in a really nasty way. But I guess they're either not British or not really British enough (i.e. living outside of Britain) so it doesn't matter.
posted by shelleycat at 11:22 PM on June 23, 2016 [11 favorites]


If you mean on Brexit, probably never. As was already said, I don't think you can have a "do over" vote on this.

I think you absolutely can, particularly once the very real consequences start to sink in.
And people start realizing how badly they've been lied to.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 11:24 PM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]


Interesting that Cameron now plans to speak after 8am, followed by a statement from the governor of the Bank of England. The LSE opens at 8am and it will be a bloodbath. I'm surprised they don't want a statement out there before the market opens, not that there are any words they can give that would really help.

Of course Nigel Farage is speaking again now, so who knows what going to be left in five minutes.
posted by zachlipton at 11:24 PM on June 23, 2016


I feel sorry for Leave voters. They've been wholly deceived by misplaced blame & irresponsible leadership (both Labour and Tory)
posted by like_neon at 11:25 PM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]


AAA credit rating is going (unsurprisingly): http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/sp-says-uk-to-lose-top-credit-rating-after-vote-to-leave-the-eu-reports-a7099581.html

So that's going to make government borrowing even more expensive along with the currency dropping.
posted by MattWPBS at 11:26 PM on June 23, 2016 [10 favorites]


As much as Cameron should resign for allowing this to happen, Corbyn's failure to deliver the labour vote is a major contributing factor. I don't give a toss that he's an avuncular chap with some good policies. Leadership means getting things done.

Off to check the odds of May being PM by August...
posted by Busy Old Fool at 11:26 PM on June 23, 2016 [12 favorites]


Farage is pulling a Howard Dean, except listing off the EU states he thinks will quit next.
posted by zachlipton at 11:26 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


i don't understand these people saying carney is likely to raise rates
do they think he is a bond villain


Since the UK inherited one of our bankers...Carney might be mildly annoyed that this is the referendum scenario in which "money and the ethnic vote" lost, by which I mean to say that he's disappointed in the UK for being shortsightedly xenophobic, comme Jaques Parizeau, who, oddly, spoke with an Oxford accent while speaking English. An interesting position for a Quebec separatist.

But having visited the Scottish Parliament last year, and having listened to a lot of local opinion on how much the thing cost (it's a nice building, IMO, if controversial), it may be money well spent in short order.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 11:27 PM on June 23, 2016


Well, fuck. (Gets kilt out of wardrobe)
posted by alasdair at 11:29 PM on June 23, 2016 [7 favorites]


Looks like an even bigger shitshow will go down in the European markets. Calls for Deutsche Bank down 21%, Volkswagen 13%.
posted by zachlipton at 11:32 PM on June 23, 2016


Leave want Cameron to stay. The have no clue what to do now and they don't want to be anywhere near the shitstorm about to happen. Much easier to sqwak from the sidelines that It's Not Happening fast enough. For my part I want Cameron to stay as punishment for bringing on this mess in the first place.
posted by like_neon at 11:32 PM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]


Wait until the football hooligans get off their RyanAir flight to discover they don't get to go to the EU passport control line.

They have to line up with all the "foreigners." What then, lads?
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 11:33 PM on June 23, 2016 [19 favorites]


I have no love for Cameron but he should bail faster than Steve Martin in the garbage manager episode of the Simpsons.
posted by XQUZYPHYR at 11:34 PM on June 23, 2016 [6 favorites]


Look. The EU is not some Star Trek project for a peaceful federation. What it actually is is a neoliberal apparatus controlled by international bankers, administered in Brussels with no transparency whatsoever, which was set up post-WW-II by French bureaucrats.

Precisely the above is a very different narrative, but it is an accurate paraphrase of Yanis Varoufakis, the former Finance Minister during Grexit, as he explained EU politics to Chomsky, and Chomsky concurred, linking this to a crucial inflection point in history known as the Bretton Woods Conference of 1944.

Until the progressives as a whole account for this picture, without appropriate cognizance of this historical and political context, political failures of this sort are a given. The UK was always already in political precarity. The voting map--just look at the one on Guardian.com--it is literally a visual representation of class conflict, as a reaction to the economic relationships due to the above history. It's the EU's fault for establishing a capitalist, self-serving bureaucracy and not dealing with the frustrations and resentments down on the ground.

It's this sort of knowledge that makes the whole thing tragic (in the formal, literary sense). Brexit is a horrible outcome, but the only way it could have been stopped is if liberals, progressives, leftists alike did not buy into EU propaganda in the first place.
posted by polymodus at 11:35 PM on June 23, 2016 [60 favorites]


Whatever the motivation(s) (sovereignty, immigration, racism, economics, etc.) I still cannot grasp that a civilized nation has opted for self-vivisection. This is heartbreaking.
posted by riverlife at 11:36 PM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]


Yeah, Cameron staying on would be an extra cherry on top for Johnson and Farage and the rest, wouldn't it? Not only would they get their way, but then Cameron would be stuck suffering the brunt of anger and blame for all the shit that goes down in the aftermath.

No sympathy for Cameron given that he walked right into this mess, but he should step down just to force the Leave leaders to take over the mess and suffer the consequences.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 11:36 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


Oh but Nigel thinks Cameron should go. This is the thing about this group of clowns. They've barely had consensus as a Leave group throughout the whole campaign and this is who people think will have a coherent plan for the future?
posted by like_neon at 11:37 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


I feel sorry for Leave voters. They've been wholly deceived by misplaced blame & irresponsible leadership (both Labour and Tory)
Most won't have access to either the information sources or the analytical skills necessary to understand the scale of the deception.

Re: Labour leadership. It was telling how much heavy lifting Miliband and Brown ended up having to do during the last week of the campaign.
posted by Sonny Jim at 11:39 PM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]


Brexit to WHERE? I am absolutely flummoxed by this outcome.
posted by thebrokedown at 11:41 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


And Corbyn now speaking. He must feel really good now that his gag has been taken off his mouth.
posted by like_neon at 11:43 PM on June 23, 2016


Most won't have access to either the information sources or the analytical skills necessary to understand the scale of the deception.

Oh, nonsense. Can we please stop this? Leave voters went into this with their eyes open, knew exactly what they were voting for. Stop treating them like children.
posted by threetwentytwo at 11:44 PM on June 23, 2016 [7 favorites]


So 15 minutes before markets open in Europe, it's been a bloodbath in Asian equity markets so far. Japan down 8%, Hong Kong down 4.5%, Australia and India down 3.5%, S Korea down 3%, Singapore down 2% and China down 1.3%. Back of the envelope, that's down around $750 billion all together in local currency, over half of it in Japan. It's worse relative to the US dollar; Japan, Australia and New Zealand's currencies all lost value as well.
posted by Homeboy Trouble at 11:45 PM on June 23, 2016


I don't think they are children but I do think they have misplaced fears and anger that stemmed from poverty and widening gaps in wealth. These fears were inflamed and pandered to rather than a government listening and tackling the roots of those fears.
posted by like_neon at 11:48 PM on June 23, 2016 [6 favorites]


On the other hand, Empires rise, Empires fall. But has such an ancient nation willingly fallen on its own sword like this before, via the ballot box?
posted by riverlife at 11:48 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


From Twitter, which pointed out that The Financial Times has given up: Pound Losing Against, Well, Everything
posted by harujion at 11:48 PM on June 23, 2016 [6 favorites]


So 15 minutes before markets open in Europe, it's been a bloodbath in Asian equity markets so far. Japan down 8%, Hong Kong down 4.5%, Australia and India down 3.5%, S Korea down 3%, Singapore down 2% and China down 1.3%. Back of the envelope, that's down around $750 billion all together in local currency, over half of it in Japan. It's worse relative to the US dollar; Japan, Australia and New Zealand's currencies all lost value as well.

The JPY strengthened today against the USD, EUR, and GBP -- most investors see it as a safe haven currency when there is perceived global economic weakness.
posted by armage at 11:53 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Also may bedbugs forever roam the sheets of the 28% or so of this country who didn't vote. Aaron Burrs the lot of them.
posted by harujion at 11:54 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


For those who think there's no way on Earth that Donald Trump could possibly be elected in November, let this be your wake-up call.

This year, man...can we just pretend it didn't happen and start fresh?
posted by SisterHavana at 11:54 PM on June 23, 2016 [38 favorites]


[Yanis Varoufakis] Yes, your concerns about loss of sovereignty are justified, but (and this is very important), you cannot regain your sovereignty by exiting the EU. The single market to which you need to belong for the economic success of your nation requires pooled sovereignty, but done in such a way that it works effectively for all nations who are a part of it giving transparency, stability and with proper democratic processes.

So, stay in and join the rest of us who are fighting for the EU to be properly democratised.


From this article Six economists on Brexit
posted by chapps at 11:54 PM on June 23, 2016 [8 favorites]




Just musing that my employers have a branch in the UK, which we refer to as the EU branch. We have a lot of EU customers outside the UK. Logically, if we want to be based in an Anglophone country still (we are New Zealand owned) it would now make sense to start planning to relocate to Dublin.

We're very small and won't make a difference, but I imagine there are large multinationals having exactly the same thoughts.
posted by i_am_joe's_spleen at 11:56 PM on June 23, 2016 [9 favorites]


I'll confess I'm a little bit let down UK, we gave you the benefit of the doubt and it turns out you really were smoking crack-rock in your grandma's cellar sending you into a drug-fueled psychotic break that led you to believe durning down the house would be easier than taking care of much needed repairs.
Also, Nigel, you should carry responsibility for this.
posted by From Bklyn at 11:57 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


I'm sorry, but, yeah, a large amount of the people who voted to leave did so under false assumptions and as a result of disingenuous campaigning and vitriolic propaganda. 52% of people here aren't drooling racists, they are people living in a deeply unequal society, suffering the effects of "austerity" and acutely aware of the injustice of it, and were told that it was people more badly off than them's fault and that having greater control of borders would make life better. We know this rhetoric works, it's worked throughout history. It's not infantilising to point out the insidiousness of right wing propaganda and the failure of the left to educate and inform voters that the things they are hoping a Leave vote will fix are the fault of the current and previous right wing governments (Labour and Tory), and the liberal capitalist system as a whole. No hospital beds? Makes a lot more sense for those invested in destabilising public services in favour of privatisation to stir up hate against immigrants for "taking" them than point out that it's brutal cuts to funding that are (deliberately) undermining the NHS.
posted by mymbleth at 11:57 PM on June 23, 2016 [72 favorites]


riverlife: "On the other hand, Empires rise, Empires fall. "
It’s much harder when it’s all your call.
All alone, 'cross the sea.
When your people say they hate you...
Don't come crawling back to me!

Da da da dat da, dat da da da da ya da
Da da da dat da da ya da...

You’re on your own…
posted by Rhaomi at 11:57 PM on June 23, 2016 [10 favorites]


As usual, a Hamilton lyric sums it all up:
"You’re on your own
Awesome. Wow
Do you have a clue what happens now?"
posted by zachlipton at 11:58 PM on June 23, 2016 [22 favorites]


So, only half-facetious question: how can the U.K. now emulate what Norway does? They're not in the E.U. and somehow isn't collapsing. If you're going to wryly and sardonically bring up North Sea oil, then, well, certainly the first step is to somehow convince the Scots to say.
posted by Apocryphon at 12:00 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


Logically, if we want to be based in an Anglophone country still (we are New Zealand owned) it would now make sense to start planning to relocate to Dublin.

Unless the UK decides to cut you a deal better than the EU. Which is kind of the whole point.
posted by Coda Tronca at 12:02 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]




how can the U.K. now emulate what Norway does?

Stop electing Tories.
posted by ROU_Xenophobe at 12:03 AM on June 24, 2016 [21 favorites]


The bus was a lie?!
posted by harujion at 12:04 AM on June 24, 2016 [8 favorites]


823 people voted to trap themselves on Gibraltar. Astonishing.
posted by rum-soaked space hobo at 12:04 AM on June 24, 2016 [13 favorites]


.
posted by rum-soaked space hobo at 12:05 AM on June 24, 2016


MattWPS: So that's going to make government borrowing even more expensive along with the currency dropping.


No it wont: We print our own currency. This is what protects us from a Greece-like outcome - we are not beholden to the Bundesbank in order to keep the lights on.
posted by pharm at 12:05 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


how can the U.K. now emulate what Norway does?

Step 1: Cut their population by 59 million people
Step 2: Oil money for everyone!!
Step 3: Travel back in time so they never joined the EU in the first place
posted by harujion at 12:06 AM on June 24, 2016 [23 favorites]


how can the U.K. now emulate what Norway does?

It's easy! First, start exporting 1.7 million barrels of oil per day...
posted by Sys Rq at 12:07 AM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


‘Britain Should Not Leave EU’ Norway’s PM Erna Solberg Warns
Even Norway was saying the UK doesn't want to 'do a Norway'.
posted by Megami at 12:08 AM on June 24, 2016 [6 favorites]


From Rami Ismail:
Just in case somebody argued the majority of the UK voted leave: they didn't.
37.5% voted Leave
34.7% voted Remain.
27.8% did not vote.
posted by harujion at 12:09 AM on June 24, 2016 [10 favorites]


With the oil price on the floor, having oil fields isn’t quite the money tree it used to be these days (which is why Scotland is not actually guaranteed to quit the UK at the moment - they don’t have the cushion of the oil income to back them, so it’s much riskier than it would otherwise be. Of course people said that about the EU referendum too!).
posted by pharm at 12:09 AM on June 24, 2016


Just in case somebody argued the majority of the UK voted leave: they didn't.

If you didn't vote you voted for the winning side by default.
posted by Justinian at 12:11 AM on June 24, 2016 [34 favorites]


My fault. I used a pencil. Sorry.
posted by vbfg at 12:11 AM on June 24, 2016 [6 favorites]


If the UK does actually leave, pretty much every multinational corporate tax dodge involving Ireland-UK-Netherlands etc will need to be redone. I'm thinking the UK gets taken out of the chain. That's a lot of zeros that will have to move around.
posted by meehawl at 12:12 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


Well, I suppose emulating Switzerland or Iceland are also out of the question.
posted by Apocryphon at 12:12 AM on June 24, 2016


London's financial centre already emulates Monaco.
posted by Coda Tronca at 12:14 AM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


With the oil price on the floor, having oil fields isn’t quite the money tree it used to be these days

No, but for a country like Norway, which exports more oil than Canada with 1/6 the population, that's still not exactly a huge problem. (And the price is nowhere near the floor, incidentally. It's just no longer touching the ceiling.)
posted by Sys Rq at 12:14 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


Well, I suppose emulating Switzerland or Iceland are also out of the question.

Switzerland: cut the population by 56 or so million, go back in time and avoid all wars in the past century, convince everyone to save their money in your banks.

Iceland: ...seriously? They've essentially got the population of the greater Newcastle area.
posted by harujion at 12:16 AM on June 24, 2016 [7 favorites]


Suggestion of Cameron resigning now... Wouldn't blame him tbh
posted by threetwentytwo at 12:16 AM on June 24, 2016


Part of me just can't accept that people looked at this amazing utopian project for peace and said, "Sure, it stopped a thousand years of non-stop European warfare that frequently sucked in the entire known world, but I really just don't like how they regulate sausages so balls to all that."

I think the decision to leave is a terrible one, but this representation of the EU does not resemble any way it has acted or generally presented itself recently. Obviously, as I'm Irish I have some dark feelings about the supposed utopianism of the EU as we've recently experienced the iron hand rather than the dove of peace, but I suspect that even very strong EU supporters don't see it that way. Instead it is packaged as an economic necessity and it's hard to feel emotionally tied to what appears often more like a corporation than a government you have a stake in.
posted by lesbiassparrow at 12:16 AM on June 24, 2016 [6 favorites]


The UK banking sector has had 30% chopped off it’s share value on the markets.
posted by pharm at 12:16 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


emulate what Norway does? They're not in the E.U. and somehow isn't collapsing.

Start diverting in the 1990s some of the profits from North Sea oil into a sovereign wealth fund, like Norway did. Or, instead, use the profits to keep taxes down, like Thatcher and post-Thatcher Brit governments. Long-term versus short-term gain.
posted by Mister Bijou at 12:16 AM on June 24, 2016 [11 favorites]


This does not have to be the horrorshow that we fear. This is a massive opportunity to create the society that we want. The next stage in the neoliberal playbook will be the further demonisation of the working class. So it will be the ignorant Mackems wot did it like the rioting scousers or the striking miners of the 80s. They need to keep us fighting each other so they can get on with perpetuating their beneficial status quo.

We do not have to wait until Farage's racists turn out to be just as helpful to us as Cameron's secret racists; we can seize the initiative from them.

The thing about the nebulous "other" which they use to stoke fear is that it is nebulous. They used immigration as a convenient answer to why so many in this country live so perilously. We can offer different answers. We can define the "other" based on the reality of our inequality not the story that the right want us to follow.

But the anger that you feel against my peers, against my family for being so desperate for change that they turned to the only game in town cannot drive you. What Leave offered was a lie and a scam but they were the only ones offering something which wasn't perpetuation of the same shity zero-hour precariousness that most of this country are living under. The massive propaganda apparatus which shores up this neoliberal lie wasn't seriously countered because the fear which they use on *us* is the fear that rocking the austerity boat will cause some kind of collapse.

It doesn't have to be austerity, it can be a wealth tax and UBI.
It doesn't have to be racism, it can be a definition of Britishness which is based on reality.
It doesn't have to be fear.

The biggest lie we are told is that it has to be this way.

My country just voted for change at all costs. Now is the time to drive that change.
posted by fullerine at 12:20 AM on June 24, 2016 [42 favorites]


Is it really a likely possibility that Northern Ireland will give up on Unionism and 400 years of sentiment, and abandon the UK for the Republic? I know it's not 1972 anymore but I can't see their Remain vote as strong enough to dissolve the long memory.
posted by Harvey Kilobit at 12:22 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


Wow. Gone by October.
posted by threetwentytwo at 12:23 AM on June 24, 2016


Yup. Cameron is resigning.

Oh God. Does this mean we get Boris?
posted by pharm at 12:24 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


Cameron standing down ...
posted by Sonny Jim at 12:25 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


See ya
posted by Coda Tronca at 12:25 AM on June 24, 2016


Plans to wait to allow a new PM to invoke Article 50.
posted by zachlipton at 12:25 AM on June 24, 2016


Oh no.
Not Boris.
Please say it ain't so.
posted by harujion at 12:25 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


>My country just voted for change at all costs. Now is the time to drive that change.

A contact of mine on FB has a different opinion:

The sad fact is, a lot of people voting Leave did so either because they listened to a bunch of hyperbole and bullshit or because they're not happy with their current social and economic situation and somehow equate that to Europe. The problem is our government, not the EU, you fucking morons. And the irony is that half of you elected the Tories...
posted by My Dad at 12:26 AM on June 24, 2016 [7 favorites]


I never thought I'd see the day when I would be appalled by DC resigning.
posted by tinkletown at 12:26 AM on June 24, 2016 [23 favorites]


Trigger Article 50 after October.
posted by Mister Bijou at 12:26 AM on June 24, 2016


"We should be proud of the fact that we trust the people, he says. There are times when it is right to ask the people."

THIS WAS NOT THE TIME

It was not right

It was stupid.
posted by harujion at 12:27 AM on June 24, 2016 [19 favorites]


My money's on Gove, a possibility I find even more terrifying. Not that my money's worth anything any more.

Remember - there is nothing the ascendant Brexiters in the Tory party have touched that they've not completely fucked up. Now they get to fuck up the entire country rather than just individual government departments.

Thanks, Dave, you twat!
posted by Grangousier at 12:28 AM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


Cameron resigns. This is the right thing. I only wanted him to stay to be punished. But this is the best option for him. Don't let the door hit your ass on the way out dude.
posted by like_neon at 12:28 AM on June 24, 2016


That's a heck of a pitch to try to calm the markets: no new PM until October; no affirmative steps to leave the EU until sometime after that. He's essentially saying he'll block the way for months in the hope everyone comes to their senses in the meantime.
posted by zachlipton at 12:28 AM on June 24, 2016 [6 favorites]


The SNP warned during the campaign that if - as has happened - the UK overall votes to leave the EU but Scots vote to remain, Scotland would be taken out of the EU "against its will" and this could be the trigger for another independence vote.
from the BBC.

I guess they could go back on their word, but it seems like another independence vote for Scotland is more likely now.
posted by Sleeper at 12:28 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


Who's likely to be in the running? May, Gove, Johnson?
posted by threetwentytwo at 12:28 AM on June 24, 2016


David Cameron: "To EU citizens living here, be assured that there will be no immediate change to your circumstances, no initial change to how our countries relate"

That sounds like there absolutely will be changes. In even the short term. Just not "immediately".
posted by Dysk at 12:29 AM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


The problem is our government, not the EU, you fucking morons. And the irony is that half of you elected the Tories...

That man is stealing your cookie.
posted by fullerine at 12:29 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


So Cameron is a coward as well as an arsehole.
posted by Happy Dave at 12:30 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


Corbyn not quitting but already has about six knives sticking out of his back...
posted by Coda Tronca at 12:30 AM on June 24, 2016 [5 favorites]


Cameron says the next PM has to invoke Article 50. He won't touch that lever.

So we now have three months for things to get so bad that even the next PM can't survive trying it.

My child is worried that this referendum result shows that we can't count on democracy. She worries that it means Trump could become president. If that happens, I don't know where we'd go. Scotland's EU bid is still under threat of veto from Spain and Belgium. What a sickening feeling in my stomach. I was a European citizen for only a few years and now it will be taken from me.
posted by rum-soaked space hobo at 12:30 AM on June 24, 2016 [6 favorites]


We do not have to wait until Farage's racists turn out to be just as helpful to us as Cameron's secret racists; we can seize the initiative from them.

Except that we do. We're stuck with decidedly kippery Tories until 2020.
posted by Dysk at 12:30 AM on June 24, 2016


Most disastrous British Prime Minister since ... Eden? Chamberlain? Lord Freaking North?
posted by Sonny Jim at 12:31 AM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


I voted to leave - and i'm thoroughly unsurprised that this thread is assuming that everyone who voted to leave is a racist. I thought long and hard about it, and decided that leaving was worth the risk.

I voted because I believe that the way the EU works means that it won't ever change unless it has a massive shock. Maybe this will be that shock, but i doubt it.

I have never believed in the Euro, and took the way Germany made a €100bn profit from the Greek crisis as evidence of just how fucked it was to have a single currency without a single exchequer.

I'm disgusted by the way the EU is treating refugees and migrants even when MSF refuses to take their money any longer. I would happily accept half the people in "the jungle" but believe that France has a duty to process them as refugees / asylum seekers / migrants as their first safe port.

I believe in free trade and in free movement of people, and I hope that the Remain group will now stand with the moderate "non-racist" leavers to make this leave into something that works for our EU colleagues.

I know my opinion is unpopular, and I know that I'll likely get flamed to a crisp. You may disagree with my conclusions, but please don't assume that everyone who voted to leave is racist, uninformed, or an idiot.

PS - after the "bloodbath" comments, the pound has now climbed back from 132 back to 136-137. It's not going to head back where it was any time soon, but the claims it was going to free fall were wrong. The currency was always going to drop because the markets hate the unknown.
posted by twine42 at 12:32 AM on June 24, 2016 [38 favorites]


Hopefully HRC takes this referendum as an indication that despite being a clown, Trump and the RNC can not be laughed away and victory assumed. They need to treat the upcoming presidential elections like they are facing Regan and go in hard.
posted by PenDevil at 12:33 AM on June 24, 2016 [21 favorites]


I don't know, I'm pretty hyped at the prospects for the reunification of Ireland. We can have multiple groundbreaking map revisions.

When I think of all the people who died or were injured in the Troubles, and the high hopes we had with the Good Friday Agreement, I find this kind of comment pretty sickening.
posted by Azara at 12:35 AM on June 24, 2016 [17 favorites]


I will do everthing I can as prime minister to steady the ship over the coming weeks and months. But I do not think it would be right for me to try to be the captain that steers our country to its next destination.

He says, having steered us straight into an iceberg.
posted by harujion at 12:35 AM on June 24, 2016 [12 favorites]


Thing is, twine42, you're outsourcing the majority of that risk to people like me - EU citizens in the UK. We didn't get to have a say in this, our interests were not considered and our humanity and existence barely if ever acknowledged, and we will be the ones bearing the biggest impact from this.

So you decided that risking MY life was worth it. I got no say.
posted by Dysk at 12:37 AM on June 24, 2016 [82 favorites]


It's not going to head back where it was any time soon, but the claims it was going to free fall were wrong.

...they were?

More than £100bn wiped off FTSE 100 after UK votes for Brexit.
Shares are plunging, and sterling has crumbled to a 31-year low...
posted by harujion at 12:37 AM on June 24, 2016 [13 favorites]


The captain of the Exxon Valdez has got to be feeling a huge weight lifted off his shoulders. This guy.
posted by riverlife at 12:38 AM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


So you decided that risking MY life was worth it.

Dysk, the issues at stake affect a lot of us.
posted by Coda Tronca at 12:39 AM on June 24, 2016 [5 favorites]


Some more, more immediately, and more directly than others.
posted by Dysk at 12:40 AM on June 24, 2016 [9 favorites]


Went to sleep with Remain leading and woke up to this and I'm just stunned and horrified. I know that the semblance of peace we have here in Northern Ireland is much, more more tenuous than is portrayed in the media. The paramilitaries never went away, they never gave up control of their areas. Now we're back into an era of enforced border controls between North and South and Sinn Fein have already called for a vote on a United Ireland and I'm worried.
posted by billiebee at 12:41 AM on June 24, 2016 [26 favorites]


Twine. I hear you: Neither Leave nor Remain counted as a "good" option for me. Just the least worst out of two.

The EU showed its true colours in the post-crisis collapse of the southern fringe economies, when it protected German and French banks at the expense of the people of the south. Apparently pain and suffering was just fine for those that borrowed money foolishly, but not to be countenanced for the banks and companies that profited from that foolish lending. In the case of certain German companies who are absolutely f*ing notorious for it, they also bribed their way into creating those ludicrously expensive projects in the first place.

Given that, who would want to tie themselves to ever closer union with these people, who will happily throw you under the bus the moment things go south?

The EU could have been reformed, it could have accepted the need for change, but it bullheadedly refused to do so & Brexit is just one of the end results.
posted by pharm at 12:42 AM on June 24, 2016 [21 favorites]


Twine42 thanks for your honesty it's good to hear from all sides.
I'm a bit perplexed by your reasoning. Most of the things you list will not be effected positively by the UK leaving. France should definitely be processing refugees properly but how is severing ties with them going to motivate them to control the shared border better? You say the EU needed a shock to improve, and let's say this is the right shock, well the UK is now out so how would they benefit from these improvements?
posted by like_neon at 12:42 AM on June 24, 2016 [15 favorites]


(For the avoidance of doubt, I voted Remain for, amongst others, the many positive reasons that have been outlined here, but I didn’t like doing it.)
posted by pharm at 12:43 AM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


Oh dear lord the Swiss embassy is sending calming emails to its citizens in the UK. They have a helpline.
posted by harujion at 12:44 AM on June 24, 2016 [14 favorites]


UK is now out so how would they benefit from these improvements?

We won’t, but if we hadn’t left, there would have been no real impetus for the EU to change.
posted by pharm at 12:45 AM on June 24, 2016


We won’t, but if we hadn’t left, there would have been no real impetus for the EU to change.

OK, stupid question here: What exactly is it that you want to change about the EU?
posted by sour cream at 12:47 AM on June 24, 2016


Like_neon - the UK won't benefit from the improvements (directly at least; who knows about indirectly) but I get to satisfy my conscience that I'm not part of that group benefiting.

Harujion - it dropped. It climbed. It looks relatively steady (or as steady as you can after only 45m). That's not a free fall.

Dysk - I'm sorry, I truly am. But that's one of the reasons I could never live and work somewhere where I have no voting rights.
posted by twine42 at 12:48 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


Oh dear lord the Swiss embassy is sending calming emails to its citizens in the UK. They have a helpline.

I wish I could count on any kind of support whatsoever from my embassy if I should need it with the changes that will come, but Denmark basically disowns anyone living outside the country for more than a few years. I'm rapidly running out of rights anywhere.
posted by Dysk at 12:48 AM on June 24, 2016 [6 favorites]


(Switzerland was never part of the EU)
posted by rum-soaked space hobo at 12:49 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


Dysk - I'm sorry, I truly am. But that's one of the reasons I could never live and work somewhere where I have no voting rights.

I had some voting rights here, actually - MEP and local elections. This vote just took that away from me.
posted by Dysk at 12:50 AM on June 24, 2016 [41 favorites]


Governor of Bank of England saying that there won't be a banking collapse, there really won't be a banking collapse, and just in case you were thinking there might be a banking collapse, there's an emergency fund of 250 billion pounds.

Why, were you thinking there might be a banking collapse?
posted by Devonian at 12:50 AM on June 24, 2016 [42 favorites]


sour cream: Oh, I don’t know. That they’re a bunch of neo-liberal shitheads who put German banks before the Greek and Spanish people? Have you *seen* the unemployment rate in Spain & Greece? Or maybe the way they put tariff barriers up against the poorest parts of the world (it took Kenya *decades* just to get the right to import flowers into the EU) which keeps them poor and subservient to multinational corporate interests? I have a little list, believe me.
posted by pharm at 12:51 AM on June 24, 2016 [4 favorites]


So, only half-facetious question: how can the U.K. now emulate what Norway does? They're not in the E.U. and somehow isn't collapsing.

Sign up to the European Economic Area, implement EU regulations and rules, pay costs for the EU, don't have a vote for anything in the EU.

Basically what we had, but without the special conditions like the rebate, or any input on what the rules are.
posted by MattWPBS at 12:52 AM on June 24, 2016 [20 favorites]


I believe Norway has to abide by the EU's rules on freedom of movement. The UK already has/had it *better* than Norway.
posted by My Dad at 12:54 AM on June 24, 2016 [8 favorites]


I voted because I believe that the way the EU works means that it won't ever change unless it has a massive shock. Maybe this will be that shock, but i doubt it.
Thing is, with the left thoroughly moribund and demoralised across Europe, the only political forces in a position to exploit this shock are those of the far right.
In a speech in Vienna last week at a meeting of rightwing, far-right and Eurosceptic parties convened under the motto “patriotic spring”, Le Pen said support for Brexit in the UK was one sign of a “new air” of patriotism sweeping Europe in what she called a “springtime of the people”.
European far right hails Britain's Brexit vote, Guardian (24 June 2016).
posted by Sonny Jim at 12:54 AM on June 24, 2016 [9 favorites]


Yeah, Norway's relationship with the EU is basically a study in how to make the maximum number of concessions for the minimum possible return. Why anyone would want to emulate it is beyond me.
posted by Dysk at 12:54 AM on June 24, 2016 [10 favorites]


“Wall Street Week” [Hulu]Saturday Night Live, 24 October 1987
posted by ob1quixote at 12:55 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


The pound against the dollar isn't too bad.
posted by Coda Tronca at 12:55 AM on June 24, 2016


YAY WE'RE FUCKED
posted by bumcivilian at 12:55 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


Caroline Lucas MP, interviewed on BBC TV:
I think this is an absolutely devastating result. Personally, I feel pretty heartbroken. It has revealed massive divisions within our country. There is such levels of alienation and anger and frustration which is real wake up call to Westminster. We have got here basically people rebelling against 98% of MPs.

The anger that we are hearing from around the country actually was less to do with EU per se and more to do with a sense of just having been un-heard, un-listened to for so many years.

We’re calling on all sides to come together to fix our democracy here in Britain – starting with electoral reform for the House of Commons. The democratic deficit will not be fixed by leaving the EU – we need to look closer to home too.
posted by asok at 12:57 AM on June 24, 2016 [18 favorites]


sour cream: Oh, I don’t know. That they’re a bunch of neo-liberal shitheads who put German banks before the Greek and Spanish people? Have you *seen* the unemployment rate in Spain & Greece? Or maybe the way they put tariff barriers up against the poorest parts of the world (it took Kenya *decades* just to get the right to import flowers into the EU) which keeps them poor and subservient to multinational corporate interests? I have a little list, believe me.

I see.
And Britain leaving the EU is going to change that exactly ... how?
posted by sour cream at 12:57 AM on June 24, 2016 [12 favorites]


Harujion - it dropped. It climbed. It looks relatively steady (or as steady as you can after only 45m). That's not a free fall.

Barclays is down 22%. That's a free fall. The major thing that's bringing the markets back up a little bit is that Cameron just stood up and promised to block the doorway for the next four months, essentially buying time.
posted by zachlipton at 12:58 AM on June 24, 2016 [6 favorites]


BBC: David Cameron to quit
posted by Joey Michaels at 12:59 AM on June 24, 2016


We have shot ourselves in the arse and it might not kill us but it’s going to hurt.
posted by misteraitch at 12:59 AM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


We did it Patrick!
posted by Drinky Die at 12:59 AM on June 24, 2016 [4 favorites]


Unfortunately a good proportion of the UK public just voted to not do any emotional work in figuring out why we are in the mess we are in and instead decided to blame the other. Not entirely surprising, but disappointing nonetheless.
posted by asok at 1:00 AM on June 24, 2016 [20 favorites]


What it actually is is a neoliberal apparatus controlled by international bankers, administered in Brussels with no transparency whatsoever, which was set up post-WW-II by French bureaucrats. Precisely the above is a very different narrative, but it is an accurate paraphrase of Yanis Varoufakis...

also btw: Brexit would be the worst of all worlds, says Varoufakis

anyway, fwiw some selected tweets and RTs from @edwardnh: @ianbremmer... posted by kliuless at 1:01 AM on June 24, 2016 [32 favorites]


YEAH BENT BANANAS IN BUNCHES OF 4! #brexit #freedom

what do you mean they're 25% more expensive?
posted by davemee at 1:07 AM on June 24, 2016 [13 favorites]


I volunteered for Remain for 8 hours in various places around Southwark, London yesterday.

There were a lot of good conversations, smiles and suportive comments; both Lambeth and Southwark went over 70% for Remain.

There were a few dickheads.

In particular, one guy walked up to me and shouted "You should be ashamed of yourself! You're taking away our sovereignty!" He grabbed my Remain poster out of my hands, crumpled it up, screamed "Fuck off!" and threw it in my face, hard, from close range.

That guy is celebrating today.

The man who murdered Jo Cox is celebrating in his prison cell.

The EDL, Britain First, and the National Front are celebrating.

The country I thought I was part of, where I've lived since 1990, where I have spent over half my life, is over.
posted by Pallas Athena at 1:08 AM on June 24, 2016 [100 favorites]


From my FB feed:

The post war baby boomers - the most privileged generation ever in terms of benefits, pensions, job security and rights have sold all of us down the river.

Can't fault that analysis.
posted by asok at 1:10 AM on June 24, 2016 [66 favorites]


Governor of Bank of England saying that there won't be a banking collapse, there really won't be a banking collapse, and just in case you were thinking there might be a banking collapse, there's an emergency fund of 250 billion pounds.

Why, were you thinking there might be a banking collapse?


That strikes me as an incredibly prudent move, really. A firm signal that the BoE has the big artillery and isn't afraid to use it. A reminder to everyone that it isn't 2008, that they've learned from that, that they're ready to face a potential crisis. And by doing that, they make the crisis less likely.
posted by Pink Frost at 1:11 AM on June 24, 2016 [7 favorites]


Is it really a likely possibility that Northern Ireland will give up on Unionism and 400 years of sentiment, and abandon the UK for the Republic?

I shouldn't think so, but I wonder whether there will be new legs for the idea of independence? If the logic works for Scotland, why not for N.I.? You might try to develop an independent but co-operative position between a friendly independent Scotland and the Republic, all within the EU and detached from England.

That's a pretty sunny imaginative take on a severely problematic situation, of course.
posted by Segundus at 1:11 AM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


The EDL, Britain First, and the National Front are celebrating.

This is true, but the referendum was also decided by disaffected former Labour voters. Ignoring that on this thread won't make it go away.
posted by Coda Tronca at 1:12 AM on June 24, 2016 [6 favorites]


The Day Today "Britain in times of crisis" link has been taken off YouTube. Just when the nation needs it most! Which leaves me only with this.
posted by Sonny Jim at 1:14 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


Shhh, Coda. Don't get in the way of people who need to believe this is all down to racists. :(
posted by twine42 at 1:16 AM on June 24, 2016 [5 favorites]


The EDL, Britain First, and the National Front are celebrating.

This is true, but the referendum was also decided by disaffected former Labour voters. Ignoring that on this thread won't make it go away.


The groups have a lot of overlap. This is one reason I don't like calling racists "hard right". More often than not, they're not particularly right wing at all, they're protectionist, isolationist, sort-of social democrats, often. Even UKIP - with its hyper-local campaign strategy - positions itself as left wing (and sometimes fields former Labour candidates) in parts of the North. That such groups might attract former Labour voters is no surprise.
posted by Dysk at 1:16 AM on June 24, 2016 [9 favorites]




HOW AGES VOTED (YouGov poll)
18-24: 75% Remain
25-49: 56% Remain 50-64:
44% Remain
65+: 39% Remain

My colleague called this "generational terrorism".
posted by harujion at 1:19 AM on June 24, 2016 [59 favorites]


Pallas Athena, thank you for fighting the good fight - I didn't get a vote, so I'm humbled that so many worked tirelessly for what I believe would have been the right thing. And I'm sorry.
posted by harujion at 1:21 AM on June 24, 2016


when it protected German and French banks at the expense of the people

TARP: A Love Story
posted by kliuless at 1:23 AM on June 24, 2016


You get that disaffected former Labour voters and racists arent mutually exclusive, right?
posted by threetwentytwo at 1:23 AM on June 24, 2016 [5 favorites]


" Unless the UK decides to cut you a deal better than the EU. Which is kind of the whole point."

Right, but as things stand, in terms of where are the fewest barriers and the most people, we would prefer to be in Ireland where we can employ people we relate to who have freedom to move around Europe. We're a services company and who can work where is a big thing for us. The most an open UK can ever offer us is the entire UK.
posted by i_am_joe's_spleen at 1:24 AM on June 24, 2016 [5 favorites]


You get that disaffected former Labour voters and racists arent mutually exclusive, right?

The argument runs that they have had racist attitudes stoked up and amplified in them by UKIP as a result of being betrayed by the hideous neoliberal Blairite Labour Party over the last 20 years.
posted by Coda Tronca at 1:30 AM on June 24, 2016


I feel really bad for all the remain campaign people handing out leaflets yesterday at Canada Water station and elsewhere whom I ignored and walked past like a stupid, self-absorbed commuter. I wish I'd said something—thanks for all your hard work; I voted remain this morning on the way to work; fingers crossed for the result—but I didn't. I can only imagine how crushed all those idealistic, overwhelmingly young volunteers are feeling right now.
posted by Sonny Jim at 1:30 AM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]




I'm with you I_am_joe's_spleen. Our company is based in London, but we are pan-european, and rely on easy transit for all kinds of workers. Just looking into how feasible it is to move us all to Germany
posted by stevedawg at 1:35 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


English being the lingua franca of Europe now, the irony is that we don't need to be based in England any more.
posted by i_am_joe's_spleen at 1:38 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


For perspective: The 250 billion £ being ready to aid the financial institutions is worth roughly 27 years of EU membership fees for the UK

That link is comparing apples with oranges though - the 250bn will presumably be emergency liquidity assistance, where a central bank lends money to commercial banks who would otherwise have trouble getting short-term funds. Thus stopping panic and bank runs. It's not that the BoE would literally spend the 250bn and get nothing back.

[Though certainly, the losses in the stock market and in the drop of the value of the pound would no doubt make up for many years of membership fees]
posted by Pink Frost at 1:39 AM on June 24, 2016 [4 favorites]


The newspapers won. The fuckers. Stoking 'it's the immigrants fault' for years. If Cameron forced the implementation of The Leveson Enquiry this could have been somewhat quelled, but no. Freedom of the press and all that, no responsibility.

Cowardly, lying fuckers.
posted by bumcivilian at 1:39 AM on June 24, 2016 [33 favorites]


Same as SteveDawg and I_am_joe's_spleen. European HQ, office full of European ex-pats and UK people. General feeling in the office is that there's going to be evaluation of other European offices for HQ, and probably no more functions moved here.
posted by MattWPBS at 1:40 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


BBC reports that people driving past Boris Johnson's house this morning have been shouting unbroadcastable things in the direction of his front door. He emerged to a chorus of boos before ducking into a car.
posted by zachlipton at 1:40 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


BBC reporting that an angry, hostile crowd has formed outside Boris Johnson's house in London ...
posted by Sonny Jim at 1:40 AM on June 24, 2016


I'm sure that bias will improve with the removal of EU rules on media ownership. Oh no, sorry, the opposite of that.
posted by jaduncan at 1:40 AM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


fuck
posted by pixie at 1:41 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]




.
posted by Pendragon at 1:43 AM on June 24, 2016


BBC reporting that an angry, hostile crowd has formed outside Boris Johnson's house in London ...

And here's a pic

I would call him a traitor of London but that balloon has always been in it only for himself.
posted by like_neon at 1:44 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


Screw the racists (and I can't believe that >%50 of Britain's population is racist), but the way the EU operates is simply not democratic, so leaving seems only rational. Not a guarantee of success, of course.
posted by pixelrevolt at 1:47 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


My eternal respect and gratitude to the first, second, and third people who egg Boris.
posted by Quagkapi at 1:49 AM on June 24, 2016 [5 favorites]


And here's a pic

Are those two guys on his balcony, or the one next door? I hate him as much as the next person but breaking into his house isn't really cricket is it?
posted by tinkletown at 1:49 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


GBP is now at a low not seen since March this year.
The FTSE 100 is at a low not seen since the 17th.

I repeat my comment about things not being in free fall...
posted by twine42 at 1:49 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]




Calling people racist because they voted leave is a bit much. And 37.5% voted leave, not 52 %
posted by Pendragon at 1:51 AM on June 24, 2016 [4 favorites]


I voted to remain. This is a horrific result and I think I'm learning what it means to grieve.

I want to say 'this is not my country any more' but I don't feel that's the right way to put it. But it's not a country I want to be a part of. I feel like I've woken up in a fictional place. 'The forces of darkness have won' is something I expect to read in a book, not wake up and find that I'm living through.

And the worst of it is that in a few months or years' time, I don't think I'll be able to look back at this comment and think it was hyperbole.
posted by dowcrag at 1:52 AM on June 24, 2016 [7 favorites]




if we hadn’t left, there would have been no real impetus for the EU to change.
Now that you're leaving, how much influence will you have to make the EU change? How about ZERO? How about LESS THAN ZERO, as in "well, we're glad they're gone so they can't get in out way..." Yep, you handed neoliberals in Europe a victory at the same time you handed racists in Britain a victory.

the EU operates is simply not democratic
It's impossible for me to believe that considering the Economic influence of London, that the "not democratic" was at least A LITTLE BIT the UK's fault?

And just as it happens every time a 25% voter turnout in midterms hands America's Congress to the Republicans, if you DIDN'T vote, you damned well supported whoever won. Thanks for nothing.
posted by oneswellfoop at 1:54 AM on June 24, 2016 [21 favorites]


It is frankly rich that British people have the gall to attack the EU over "not being democratic":

  • Unelected second chamber.
  • Featuring members of one particular religion.
  • "National" parliament without jurisdiction over various parts of the country.
  • First-past-the-post resulting in governments elected by 25% of the electorate having total power.

    And you know what? It works fine. It muddles along. It even changes over time as our needs change.

    "Undemocratic" is a weasel word when applied to the EU. All human institutions are flawed. The "undemocratic" flaws in the EU are the result of nation states wanting to keep sovereignty, not some conspiracy.

    ...

    Fuck, I'm rambling, because I'm so sad and cross. Justify your fucking racism any way like. I'm out.

  • posted by alasdair at 1:55 AM on June 24, 2016 [79 favorites]


    With you there Dowcrag. Feels like a terrible mistake has been made and I'm so ashamed to be British. And there's some people celebrating!
    Meanwhile my Irish, French and Italian pals who live here are all saying variations of 'wow, this feels weird, I feel oddly unwelcome' and worrying about their jobs/lack of jobs/houses they've bought/were thinking of buying.
    A big disaster for most people under 40 this.
    posted by stevedawg at 1:55 AM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


    The massive propaganda apparatus which shores up this neoliberal lie wasn't seriously countered because the fear which they use on *us* is the fear that rocking the austerity boat will cause some kind of collapse. It doesn't have to be austerity, it can be a wealth tax and UBI.

    -The Sandworm Solution
    -The Myth of Austerity and Growth
    posted by kliuless at 1:56 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    If anyone's interested in a legal analysis, my former employers have a briefing here. Targeted at their corporate clients, obviously, but an easy read and covers things like trade, IP law, environmental law, the process for leaving, etc. Also discusses the future relationship between UK and EU, whether on a Norwegian model or something different.
    posted by Pink Frost at 1:59 AM on June 24, 2016 [8 favorites]


    Ohhhhh for fuck's sake. Shut it down forever!
    posted by lucidium at 2:01 AM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


    Are those two guys on his balcony, or the one next door? I hate him as much as the next person but breaking into his house isn't really cricket is it?

    I'm aware the following views aren't the best of me.

    I don't know. You should ask the EU national friends of mine who have no idea what will happen with the rest of their life, or the entire population of the UK having less money. It's not less harsh when people are forcibly evicted from their house due to the bedroom tax, or whatever comes next due to the entirely predictable welfare cuts to come with lower tax receipts. Boris having to put up with shit for having cynically (and remember, he also had a column on file for if he decided to campaign for the EU) lied about his own views and played along with racists seems relatively small in comparison. One person has already died from the kind of bullshit that he has sold. I hope that he regrets his own decision and the damage that he has done for the rest of his life.
    posted by jaduncan at 2:02 AM on June 24, 2016 [10 favorites]


    A friend cycling to work in London reports that sne was caught up in a crowd of other cyclists who were spontaneously surrounding Boris' car and booing him.

    I doubt he'd do much better up here.
    posted by Devonian at 2:06 AM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


    Britain has not voted to leave the EU. England (outside London) and Wales have voted to leave the EU.

    Hello from Scotland, where 62% of votes were for remain, the SNP may seek their own deal with the EU and a social media campaign for a second independence referendum has started. #indyref2

    And then there's Northern Ireland, where 55.8% of votes were for remain, and Sinn Fein's Martin McGuinness has called for a vote on joining the Irish Republic, while there are concerns about what Brexit will mean for the Good Friday Agreement.
    posted by Vortisaur at 2:07 AM on June 24, 2016 [8 favorites]


    The post war baby boomers - the most privileged generation ever in terms of benefits, pensions, job security and rights have sold all of us down the river.

    They always do. Over and over and over again.

    Not sure whether Brexit will be that great for their pensions. Or the value of their houses. Or their chances of not being eaten by marauding gangs of neo-nazis.
    posted by lucien_reeve at 2:08 AM on June 24, 2016 [20 favorites]


    sorry, everyone. I did what I could. It wasn't enough

    My heart is with you and your friends, and I'm with you in grief. But - I don't accept your apology, because I won't lose hope in any country with such people as you in it, and I won't be upset that you (and Pallas) put all your great effort into that cause we believe in.

    I think you did well, and what you did was not an effort wasted, even if the result didn't go our way. And I will have cause to not despair, because I have your example to live up to.

    So I'll say that my heart has its own sovereignty; I refuse it to be diminished because of this one piece of tawdry politics, but it grows greater and more rich because of the work and the example of those like you.
    posted by the quidnunc kid at 2:17 AM on June 24, 2016 [52 favorites]


    Having a national holiday for 50% of the people in the country seems like a step towards mending those broken bridges in our society.
    posted by vbfg at 2:17 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    Britain has not voted to leave the EU. England (outside London) and Wales have voted to leave the EU.
    And by the nature of Democracy in a not-totally-homogenous nation, they voted to drag you away with them. I know how it feels; as a resident of California since I've been able to vote, I was dragged along when California's Initiative System committed us to some appalling things, like Prop. 13's defunding of education, the Three Strikes Rule that overfilled our prisons and banning Same-Sex Marriage. Too bad you don't have a Supreme Court like the US does to decide we've democratically screwed up.

    But if you think the neoliberal "austerity" is bad now, wait 'til you see how the surviving Tories handle the instant recession your anti-neoliberal Brexit votes helped cause. Here's a tip: the Lesser of Two Evils is still LESS Evil.
    posted by oneswellfoop at 2:18 AM on June 24, 2016 [11 favorites]


    GBP/USD back at 1.39.

    It's gone from 1.40 at the start of the week, to 1.49 on the back of expected Remain victory, crashing down to 1.33 on the Leave result, and back to 1.39 after Cameron's resignation (and I guess certainty).

    So basically it's back to where it was on Monday, for now. Just via a very convoluted route.
    posted by plep at 2:21 AM on June 24, 2016 [6 favorites]


    And America's Most Evil Alternative Ever, Donald Trump, had had no opinion on Brexit before, but now that it has passed, he loves it!!!
    posted by oneswellfoop at 2:22 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    I've been at work all day, and my British coworkers were a stark contrast, with the younger, happy go lucky guy who refused to really accept that there was any tinge of race involved in the issue, and the slightly older British teacher with a kid, who was, as she said, gutted by the result. She's more of a world traveler type, with British friends living all around Europe, while the other teacher frequently talks about his rough upbringing in public housing. As much as the older teacher would rail about the idiocy of the decision, the younger one would only keep repeating "I can see both sides" but I a way that was pretty obvious he hadn't really given much thought to the outcome.

    For myself, I'm pretty stunned, and a lot more worried about the US elections in November. Stupid tends to build momentum, and there's just been a giant surge in stupid today. I wonder how many of the people who voted leave out of a sense of "lets burn it all down" and are now just realizing how dumb they've been. I've heard enough people claiming they'll vote for Trump for basically the same reason, and it's terrifying.

    Either way, this is a fucking terrifying development. As I sww mentioned, no, the EU isn't Star Trek, but dammit, it was a step in the right direction. Nations coming together and finding common cause, building for the greater good, that's how we pull ourselves out of the muck. Nationalism and fear of the other is just the muck trying to pull us back down, keeping us from the better, freer future. There's no purpose in where we're born, no divine ordination. We are born where we are born out of a fluke of luck and a preponderance of chance. For those born in bounty, building walls and denying the same opportunity to others is something that, not too long ago, seemed like it might someday be done away with. With any luck, this is a blip, an aberration, with Britain quickly finding itself on the wrong side of social and political evolution, sheepishly admitting it's error, and rejoining.
    posted by Ghidorah at 2:24 AM on June 24, 2016 [36 favorites]


    > With any luck, this is a blip, an aberration, with Britain quickly finding itself on the wrong side of social and political evolution, sheepishly admitting it's error, and rejoining.

    The best, best, best chance of that is for a new deal with Europe and a new referendum before the Article 50 button is pressed. Otherwise this is a done deal for a very long time.

    Europe has places to be. It cannot keep stopping for the same passenger to get on and off the bus.
    posted by vbfg at 2:28 AM on June 24, 2016 [7 favorites]


    Hopefully this should be a wake up to Germany that they need to change their stance to Greece/Spain/Italy and start cutting them better deals.
    posted by PenDevil at 2:29 AM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


    How many metaphorical Wake Up Calls have you ever seen that have actually woken anybody up?
    posted by Grangousier at 2:30 AM on June 24, 2016 [49 favorites]


    I'm considering doing a little currency speculation. Like, for example, "what can I still buy with this pound coin?"

    This morning the answer was a consolation Cornish pasty breakfast that, for the moment, is made in Cornwall.
    posted by vbfg at 2:34 AM on June 24, 2016


    Speaking of Cornwall
    posted by like_neon at 2:36 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    This probably sums up the EU referendum vote:

    https://c1.staticflickr.com/1/26/54129281_25d22f9fba_b.jpg
    posted by pharm at 2:36 AM on June 24, 2016 [6 favorites]


    Wow, the Brexit camp are still shouting at us to "stop scaremongering!"

    Surely once it's actually happened we call that "reporting", no?
    posted by rum-soaked space hobo at 2:39 AM on June 24, 2016 [43 favorites]


    Ghidorah: "Stupid tends to build momentum, and there's just been a giant surge in stupid today"

    QFT
    posted by chavenet at 2:40 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]




    "....the younger generation has lost the right to live and work in 27 other countries. We will never know the extent of the lost opportunities, friendships, marriages, and experiences we will be denied."

    Those sentences really struck me, as someone who spent ~4 years in Britain (one in Scotland, three in England) in the early-to-mid 2000s. People were forming those relationships all around me, and over the decade since I left, my facebook wall's filled up with news and pictures of weddings and babies and relocations and research collaborations, many of which might never have come into being had we not been living in that moment of unprecedented freedom of movement. Many of my non-British friends and classmates and co-workers ended up staying on in the UK, building lives and careers and families there, and in a slightly alternate timeline I might have done in the same. I'm sad and scared for them today, and mourning the sense of possibility we lived in then.
    posted by karayel at 2:42 AM on June 24, 2016 [99 favorites]


    The closing off of Britain, the loss of freedom of travel, work, and residence will only give the ignorance and close-mindedness that won out today more time to fester.
    posted by Ghidorah at 2:48 AM on June 24, 2016 [11 favorites]


    I want to say 'this is not my country any more' but I don't feel that's the right way to put it. But it's not a country I want to be a part of. I feel like I've woken up in a fictional place. 'The forces of darkness have won' is something I expect to read in a book, not wake up and find that I'm living through.

    As an Australian, that's exactly how I felt after finding out that the Howard Government's then-new "anti-terrorism" laws, which allow "terrorist suspects" to be locked up for weeks without being charged and make it a crime to reveal that this has happened, were supported by 2/3 of the population.

    You have all my sympathy.

    I wish I could reassure you that the feeling goes away, but it really doesn't. You just get used to having it.
    posted by flabdablet at 2:51 AM on June 24, 2016 [9 favorites]


    All in all, this is a fascinating time to be reading a series of novels about how fascism comes to the UK.
    posted by duffell at 2:54 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    I wonder whether freedom of movement / immigration isn't a bit of a canard on both sides. Surely in negotiations with the EU, they will demand the same (or similar) freedom of movement as part of belonging to whatever trading bloc we apply for. In negotiations as asymmetrical as the ones coming up, the weaker party just has to roll over. And membership of that trading bloc will also have membership fees. We haven't voted to give up migration, just citizenship rights; we haven't voted away EU regulations (which we'll have to conform to), just the ability to affect those regulations; we haven't voted away the need to pay money to the EU, just the rebate and any subsidies that EU membership might have entitled us to (and which many of the areas that just voted to leave relied on).

    In this morning's sense of intemperateness, I do wonder if we should give such power to people with no entry criteria other than the ability to spell "X". But that would take me to somewhere even worse, so I should probably give it up.

    But maybe we should see what the Tories' crack team of political and diplomatic geniuses manage to negotiate for us with the EU. Given how understanding they were towards Greece.
    posted by Grangousier at 3:00 AM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


    The boomers really are hellbent-for-leather on taking the whole goddamn shooting match down with them when they go, aren't they?
    posted by enn at 3:00 AM on June 24, 2016 [25 favorites]


    I think their motto is "apres moi, le deluge."
    posted by Justinian at 3:11 AM on June 24, 2016 [18 favorites]


    I have very little to say on Brexit at this point that isn't just wailing and whining for its own sake, so I have a practical question.

    I live in England. If I moved to Scotland tomorrow (for the sake of hypothetical argument), what are the chances of:
    1. Scotland having a second independence referendum that ends in a 'yes' vote;
    2. The new independent Scotland remaining a member of the EU;
    3. That country allowing me to become a citizen, rather than remaining as an English and non-EU citizen?

    I don't know if it's a practical plan or if Scotland will be economically capable of receiving presumably thousands of people like me (as it's currently part of a UK that is not going to be doing very well) but it seems like a positive thing that I could work towards doing, rather than sitting on a sinking English ship.

    I just never want to spend another Friday early morning reading messageboard threads which consist largely of people going "Fuck."
    posted by winterhill at 3:11 AM on June 24, 2016 [7 favorites]


    You would think that Boris Johnson, as past mayor for a city that relies on immigrants across all classes for labour and a financial services industry that needs access to large markets to function, would be waving the Remain flag the highest. You would think...
    posted by PenDevil at 3:13 AM on June 24, 2016 [5 favorites]


    Boris' decision to back Brexit has to be one of the most cynical moves, ever, in modern politics. As a mayor of London, he cannot possibly believe it was right. He wants PM. That's all.
    posted by Quagkapi at 3:15 AM on June 24, 2016 [29 favorites]


    Boris has always been in it for Boris & decided to through his lot in with Leave because that gave him the best chance of climbing the greasy pole. After all, if Remain won he’d always get another chance.
    posted by pharm at 3:15 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    To Boris Johnson, anything that doesn't sate the immediate desires of Boris Johnson might as well not exist.
    posted by Grangousier at 3:15 AM on June 24, 2016 [4 favorites]




    This is a travesty and I genuinely feel bad about it. I was watching some grinning British commentator on a financial news network this morning crowing about how everything would be back to normal soon and that Article 50 will probably never happen. This is just "a message" to the EU and certainly "another referendum" will be had after the EU concedes to British demands. I feel like that guy was living in a fantasy world.
    posted by xyzzy at 3:18 AM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


    He sounds a bit like the guy who voted to leave but genuinely seems to have believed his vote wouldn't count. And is now terrified.

    It might have seemed like a dream but it was all too real.

    FWIW, I have chosen to blame Angus Deayton for sniffing coke off the tits of a Sun / NOTW employee. Without that there's no Boris in his current form.
    posted by vbfg at 3:22 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    I think we all need to take a deep breath. This is awful, terrible news but the country is not going to crumble overnight. Now, it might crumble over the next few years, but it's not happening this weekend.

    Nothing is happening this weekend. Cameron won't be in a position to make anything happen until he leaves in October. No one is going to be in a position to make anything happen while a general election palaver is underway.

    The government has failed the UK massively. This is the result of years of avoiding the hard work of actually listening to their citizens who were instead lured by easy and wrong finger-pointing.

    But instead of looking for ways to run away, can the Remain voters please use this as a wake up call of our own to unify and try and dampen this horrific tide we see before us? We can unify. The Leave group are a mess of headless chickens. And no, I don't know what the answer is. But I don't think the answer is dismissing a big portion of the population as a bunch of racist idiots.
    posted by like_neon at 3:26 AM on June 24, 2016 [5 favorites]


    > while a general election palaver is underway

    Is a GE confirmed? Conservative leadership contest, yes, but another GE, within 18 months of the last?
    posted by Quagkapi at 3:29 AM on June 24, 2016


    Which General Election is this? My understanding is the PM is resigning. That's a Tory party leadership election, not a general election.

    (Which will at least give us the same people in power that were undermining Brown as an "unelected" Prime Minister).
    posted by vbfg at 3:30 AM on June 24, 2016


    I sometimes wonder how different UK politics would have been if we had proportional representation for the past forty years. But I guess this referendum shows that the British people are perfectly capable of shooting themselves in the foot even without the distorting effect of FPTP.
    posted by Bloxworth Snout at 3:30 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    Yes, xyzzy. If anything would cement the feeling that the opinions of the disenfranchised don't matter it would be the referendum counting for nothing. We avoided riots on the streets as they got the result they wanted this time.

    like_neon, one of the problems is the uncertainty for all UK citizens working in Europe and all EU citizens in the UK, as well as all the businesses that rely on the EU.

    Healing would be ideal, but that would require some degree of humility on the part of the Leavers as well as the ability to forgive on the part of the Remainers.

    It's a mess.
    posted by asok at 3:31 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    Sturgeon giving a speech right now in Edinburgh. And all of a sudden it's on. Indy Ref 2: Election Boogaloo.
    posted by Len at 3:31 AM on June 24, 2016 [8 favorites]


    Louisa Compton: With leave voters in Manchester for BBCNews -most told us they woke up thinking "what have I done?" & didn't actually expect the uk to leave

    I sincerely hope I'm overestimating the number of "just for the lulz" or "shake up the system, man" Trump supporters.
    posted by duffell at 3:32 AM on June 24, 2016 [16 favorites]


    I stand corrected, not a GE. But still, it will be a clusterfuck searching for a new leader.

    like_neon, one of the problems is the uncertainty for all UK citizens working in Europe and all EU citizens in the UK, as well as all the businesses that rely on the EU.

    I agree, also horrible. I work in a small company that relies on EU clients with lots of EU employees. I am going to do whatever I can. Still learning what there is to do, but there must be something. No policies have yet been created. I know I won't be alone in being hyper vigilant about how to affect those policies once drafting starts underway.
    posted by like_neon at 3:35 AM on June 24, 2016


    I live in England. If I moved to Scotland tomorrow (for the sake of hypothetical argument), what are the chances of:
    1. Scotland having a second independence referendum that ends in a 'yes' vote;


    99%. Nicola Sturgeon's just giving a speech about it now.

    2. The new independent Scotland remaining a member of the EU;

    Remaining, 0%. Rejoining, almost certainly, but it'll take a while.

    Unless they do a ROC/PRC-style switcheroo in which the EU chooses to pretend that the UK separated from Scotland, and Scotland continues as "the UK" in EU terms... which sounds like the type of thing Brussels would go in for, actually.

    3. That country allowing me to become a citizen, rather than remaining as an English and non-EU citizen?

    Tricky. Bad times for refugees of all stripes, these days.
    posted by Vetinari at 3:37 AM on June 24, 2016 [4 favorites]


    The saying is "if you think Boris Johnson is on your side, you're missing something." Boris has no ideology other than the political rise of Boris. He'll say anything he discovers the voters want to hear. This can be useful, as he can be swayed to your side. It can be devastating, as he'll leave you at the altar.

    All that said, the waffling and equivocation among every Tory who takes the podium now leaves us with possibly the biggest constitutional crisis since the Abdication.
    posted by rum-soaked space hobo at 3:38 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    But instead of looking for ways to run away, can the Remain voters please use this as a wake up call of our own to unify and try and dampen this horrific tide we see before us?

    Can those of us who'd settled in the UK but didn't get a vote run away at least? (Not sure where we'd run TO at this point, but we've had the Welcome rug swept out from under us.)
    posted by harujion at 3:40 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    Boris is Aaron Burr (only less charismatic). He has no beliefs. He just wants to be in the room where it happens. And he'd probably kill to get it!
    posted by harujion at 3:43 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    > Tricky. Bad times for refugees of all stripes, these days.

    Interesting. At present, legally nothing has changed. The UK is in the EU and Scotland is in the UK. I can legally move to Scotland tomorrow - there is no legal definition of "who's a Scot" and "who's English" as far as I know, other than who lives there. It's a really tricky question - if (when?) Scotland became (becomes?) independent, who'd be counted as Scottish for the purposes of new citizenship? Anyone who happens to be resident there on independence day? Anyone who's been there X years?
    posted by winterhill at 3:43 AM on June 24, 2016


    Please stay. Know that there are people who stand with you. Quite a lot of people actually! Do not let this outcome bully you into leaving. That's what they want.
    posted by like_neon at 3:44 AM on June 24, 2016


    Just wanted to thank the vote leave team for encouraging this kind of thing, which is a lovely throw-back to our nationalist and violent times in the 1970s.

    Perhaps I'm wrong. Perhaps the football is still on. But I find the prevalence of this kind of iconography, in particular demographic areas, quite chilling. That we've now 'shaken up' the bottle and given permission for this kind of communication all seems to be related.

    Well played for shaking things up. I'm starting to fear for *my* life, and I'm a white british heterosexual male. At least we still have police services in cas... oh 50% cutbacks? Winner all round! Those remaining police are going to be tied up as Gove and Johnson's personal bodyguard.
    posted by davemee at 3:46 AM on June 24, 2016 [4 favorites]


    Can those of us who'd settled in the UK but didn't get a vote run away at least? (Not sure where we'd run TO at this point, but we've had the Welcome rug swept out from under us.)

    Please stay. Know that there are people who stand with you. Quite a lot of people actually! Do not let this outcome bully you into leaving. That's what they want.


    Please do whatever you need to do to be safe.
    posted by duffell at 3:46 AM on June 24, 2016 [5 favorites]


    "Papers, ye fecking coont" soon to be heard throughout Britain
    posted by sidereal at 3:46 AM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


    If anything would cement the feeling that the opinions of the disenfranchised don't matter it would be the referendum counting for nothing.

    Those that voted are not disenfranchised. Those of us who are disenfranchised - don't have the right to vote - are the immigrants here. Our opinions clearly count for nothing, and implementing the result of the referendum would cement that.

    Refusing to implement brexit would show that the views of the enfranchised count for nothing. Which is quite different, given that it is in fact the enfranchised making the very clear statement that disenfranchised groups in the UK (the vast majority of whom a have no voting rights due to being immigrants) whose views, interests, and lives are worthless.
    posted by Dysk at 3:48 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    winterhill - pretty sure the stance on Scottish citizenship at the last referendum from the current government was 'anyone who lives in Scotland who already has British citizenship, plus anyone who lives here from the EU who wants to apply for it'.
    posted by Happy Dave at 3:49 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    > winterhill - pretty sure the stance on Scottish citizenship at the last referendum from the current government was 'anyone who lives in Scotland who already has British citizenship, plus anyone who lives here from the EU who wants to apply for it'.

    Cheers - I've been wanting to move to Scotland for a while (since before Brexit was even a remote possibility) but never really got off my arse and done it. This is probably the kick up the bum I need to get a move on and do it. My parents were saying the same a few days ago - if Brexit happened, they'd be looking at selling up in England and retiring to Scotland. I expect there'll be a family meeting of some kind over the weekend.
    posted by winterhill at 3:51 AM on June 24, 2016 [5 favorites]


    Well that didn't take long for me to get sick of Remain's belly up attitude.
    posted by like_neon at 3:52 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    winterhill - pretty sure the stance on Scottish citizenship at the last referendum from the current government was 'anyone who lives in Scotland who already has British citizenship, plus anyone who lives here from the EU who wants to apply for it'.

    Yep, pretty sure Edinburgh will be a substantially larger city by the time the next Scottish referendum comes round. Which will be very soon.
    posted by brilliantmistake at 3:54 AM on June 24, 2016 [4 favorites]


    Fair point Dysk, I mean the people who feel disenfranchised but are actually incredibly privileged and lucky, rather than the people who are actually disenfranchised.

    On the subject of Indyref2, there was a study by the LSE that reported that there was an effect due to No voters last time that had affinity with the statement 'I am British' rather than 'I am Scottish'. Whether they would have more affinity with 'I am an EU Citizen' or 'I am British (where the UK leader is on the far right and wants to leave the EU)' is an interesting question.
    posted by asok at 4:04 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    Regions with the biggest votes for Leave are also the most economically dependent on the EU

    The same dynamic exists in the US; the areas with the most dependence on the federal government are also the most likely to vote for the party which claims to want to shrink the federal government.
    posted by Slothrup at 4:06 AM on June 24, 2016 [12 favorites]


    EU referendum: Boris Johnson coy on future after PM quits.
    Mr Johnson, installed as the bookies' favourite to succeed David Cameron, is expected to talk to the media later.
    Boris the fucking buffoon Johnson as PM. Truly the darkest fucking timeline.
    posted by Talez at 4:09 AM on June 24, 2016 [5 favorites]


    I gotta be honest, I thought it would be close, but I really didn't think Leave would win. Now my Facebook is a series of sad UK-born friends, friends and family who moved there for jobs or love and they are uncertain what happens now.

    My SIL was thinking of moving back home to Canada after the last election, so I'm wondering if that went from "probably" to "yup, gonna do it."
    posted by Kitteh at 4:10 AM on June 24, 2016


    So if Scotland declares independence, wouldn't the resulting UK be that much more conservative?
    posted by octothorpe at 4:11 AM on June 24, 2016


    Some interesting result maps from the BBC.
    posted by antiwiggle at 4:12 AM on June 24, 2016


    Boris the fucking buffoon Johnson as PM. Truly the darkest fucking timeline

    The darkest timeline is if Trump wins in November too. Can you imagine those state visits?
    posted by Elementary Penguin at 4:13 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    So if Scotland declares independence, wouldn't the resulting UK be that much more conservative?

    England will be renamed Toryhampton.
    posted by duffell at 4:15 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    MPs submit Corbyn no confidence motion. If accepted it would be followed by a secret ballot of Labour MPs on Tuesday.

    Hold onto your butts.
    posted by like_neon at 4:16 AM on June 24, 2016 [6 favorites]


    octothorpe: Yes, very much so. The SNP holds about 56 seats. Without those, there’s no way the current Labour movement can hope to hold power.
    posted by pharm at 4:16 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    Boy, did I pick a bad day to quit my job with nothing else lined up.

    Time to look for work north of the border, I think.
    posted by Acey at 4:16 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    So if Scotland declares independence, wouldn't the resulting UK be that much more conservative?

    For the time being.

    But political outlook depends on cultural and social identity. Their will be a transition from UK and British to England and English, a lot of reevaluation and reimagining who we are. With the UK gone what will our history mean to us? What is the difference to being English and not British? It is a process which will take years but will deeply change how we think and talk about our country.
    posted by Emma May Smith at 4:17 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    Please stay. Know that there are people who stand with you. Quite a lot of people actually! Do not let this outcome bully you into leaving. That's what they want.

    Well they'll get it - they're not changing the rules for us now, but when they do, one of us will have to earn £35k to be allowed to remain. £35,000. That is not money I can make - possibly ever. And it's certainly not money I can gamble our future on maybe not needing to be allowed to keep living here.
    posted by harujion at 4:17 AM on June 24, 2016 [9 favorites]


    Parliament website crashed due to huge interest in second referendum poll. The second referendum that Farage claimed would be necessary yesterday, but no doubt has conveniently forgotten about now.
    posted by asok at 4:21 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]




    What are the chances this leads to special discussions between the UK and EU to address some of the most serious grievances, allowing the UK government to say they don't have to leave now because they forced satisfactory change on Brussels?

    I mean, I'm sure those talks are/will be happening, but what are the chances it succeeds?
    posted by GhostintheMachine at 4:22 AM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


    England will be renamed Toryhampton

    Not all of England:

    London remain 59.9%
    Rest of England leave 57%
    posted by Mister Bijou at 4:22 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    This petition to have another go has crashed the government website.
    But I'm wondering if they don't have a different problem now.

    The Referendum is non-binding. To exit they need to pass a motion in parliament to implement Article 50 (I think, anyway). That's going to need a majority vote of MPs and then go through lords and get a majority there.
    posted by Just this guy, y'know at 4:23 AM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


    Ah, already I'm seeing (from US folks on FB and Twitter) who don't understand how expensive it is to emigrate: "But why wouldn't UK people just move to here or Canada?"
    posted by Kitteh at 4:24 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    Ghost: small. Having had the referendum, the UK probably has to leave the EU as it’s currently constituted. However, there’s nothing stopping the EU/UK governments cooking up a “special relationship” to smooth things over. We’ll have to wait and see.
    posted by pharm at 4:24 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]




    It’s interesting (to me!) that of the Northern cities, the majority Leave ones were Birmingham and Sheffield. Why those two? Manchester has a similar demographic to Birmingham & strongly voted Remain. Liverpool, Leeds, York & Newcastle also voted Remain.

    I can sort of see Sheffield - it’s a city that has never really recovered from the collapse of the steel industry - but why Birmingham?
    posted by pharm at 4:27 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    MPs submit Corbyn no confidence motion. If accepted it would be followed by a secret ballot of Labour MPs on Tuesday.

    At a time when everyone is talking about the importance of and need for unity, the Labour party goes and does this. Whoever ends up leading the party, remember this moment - they are putting their political career above any sense of political stability and any hope of a meaningful challenge to this result. That it will almost certainly represent a shift rightward, back toward Blairite New Labour, crushes any chance of anything even remotely approximating the lexit so many have been crowing for.
    posted by Dysk at 4:28 AM on June 24, 2016 [10 favorites]


    Corbyn was bloody awful on R4 this morning. If he’s like that at the GE than Labour are utterly stuffed.
    posted by pharm at 4:28 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    A song for this Friday morning.

    I was honestly expecting this.
    posted by Talez at 4:29 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    To be fair, Corbyn is the worst person for Labour unity. He had to be practically dragged by horses to support Remain.
    posted by like_neon at 4:29 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    Whoever ends up leading the party, remember this moment - they are putting their political career above any sense of political stability and any hope of a meaningful challenge to this result.

    The people responsible are:

    Proposed by: Rt Hon Dame Margaret Hodge MP

    Seconded by: Ann Coffey MP

    posted by lucien_reeve at 4:30 AM on June 24, 2016


    jinx! That wasn’t a reply to your comment Dysk.

    However, yes: if Scotland is going to Leave then I can’t see how a Corbynite Labour party has a path to power. They can cede to either a Blairite left or Labour will spend a generation in the wilderness. Am I wrong?
    posted by pharm at 4:31 AM on June 24, 2016


    I can sort of see Sheffield - it’s a city that has never really recovered from the collapse of the steel industry - but why Birmingham?

    The Midlands was one of the hardest hit areas in the most recent economic downturn. Unemployment in particular has been high compared to the national average. And then there's the fact that it's so often ignored - too far south to be even notionally part of any "northern powerhouse" strategy, too far north to benefit much from the London wealth. Couple that with vast deprived areas and a stupendously expensive and fancy city centre, and you have a powder keg of resentment.
    posted by Dysk at 4:32 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    +250% spike in "what happens if we leave the EU" in the past hour

    WHAT IS THIS? I DON'T EVEN?
    posted by Talez at 4:33 AM on June 24, 2016 [14 favorites]


    So far there are discussions on all three of the regions that voted majority remain to leave the UK.
    Scotland, NI and London

    Maybe we could all get together and form a separate country.
    Or maybe we can stay the UK since we've got London, Edinburgh and Belfast and the rest can just be Wales.
    posted by Just this guy, y'know at 4:33 AM on June 24, 2016 [11 favorites]


    Please explain why there have been a million people on the dole while millions of immigrants can come here and get jobs? No one has done this.

    I'm just an American, but I will try.

    1. Rich-as-Croesus CEOs cut jobs that actually pay a living wage, out of a means to drive up their own profits and thus earn their own massive salaries.
    2. However, at the same time they expand jobs with shitty pay so they can claim "but we're also creating jobs!.....Okay, those jobs pay shit and if you are a Briton with even a modest lifestyle you wouldn't be able to live on the salary, because we only pay pennies, but we're still creating jobs!"
    3. Britons who own a home or have a family - or both - consider these jobs, realize that they would go bankrupt on the pay, and turn them down, staying on the dole.
    4. Immigrants who have absolutely nothing, and are in even more desperate financial circumstances than many of us know, take those jobs because it's that or nothing.
    5. Meanwhile, the CEOs add another "zero" to their salaries because they were able to save even more money by getting the Britons with mortgages off of their payroll and still keep production up; and now, they are also able to respond to complaints from Britons about "why aren't there any jobs" by implying that it is the immigrants' fault and not their own.

    And a personal note - your "evidence" that "millions of people on the dole" and "immigrants taking our jobs" consists of one single instance of nepotism you saw, at one shop. You strike me as a thinking individual; start looking at where the real problem is - and it's not that one shop in Diam.
    posted by EmpressCallipygos at 4:34 AM on June 24, 2016 [103 favorites]


    Incidentally, part of me wants to blame all this crap on the unions electing the younger Miliband to lead the Labour party in the first place, followed by Corbyn. I think a Labour party led by the Blairites might not have been everything they wanted from Labour, but at the same time it wouldn’t have handed the country over to a bunch of Tories who have managed to drag us out of the EU & probably break the Union in the process, ensuring that the left will never hold power for a generation.
    posted by pharm at 4:35 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    Or maybe we can stay the UK since we've got London, Edinburgh and Belfast and the rest can just be Wales.

    New Mercia.
    posted by plep at 4:37 AM on June 24, 2016 [5 favorites]


    Labour's done. I'm eyeing the Women's Equality Party as a viable option.
    posted by like_neon at 4:37 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    This petition to have another go has crashed the government website.

    111,809 signatures right now (15k/hour), so parliament will have to consider a debate.
    posted by effbot at 4:38 AM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


    To be fair, Corbyn is the worst person for Labour unity. He had to be practically dragged by horses to support Remain.

    For Parliamentary Labour Party unity, perhaps. For the grassroots of the party, less so. He clearly wanted to be on the other side of this issue, which goes a long way to explaining his lacklustre performance in the campaigning, but he represents the only credible alternative to the exact neoliberal consensus this was a rebellion against, and the party could have done well by the country to unify around his policy platform. Instead, AT A TIME WHEN PEOPLE HAVE JUST THROWN THE STATUS QUO OUT THE WINDOW MOST EMPHATICALLY, they're reverting back to the mean, going for that sweet, sweet establishment centrism.

    Madness. If you want Corbyn gone, if he turns out to be a damp squib, there's plenty of time yet. Giving the dust a little time to settle would have allowed the party to capitalise on the situation to assume degree, help shape the discourse around how things are going to be organised now. Instead, internal squabbles, and letting the Tories dictate the terms of the debate entirely. Lovely.
    posted by Dysk at 4:38 AM on June 24, 2016 [19 favorites]


    Considering joining the Greens and assisting their campaign for proportional representation in any way I can. I have to say, the absolutely sick feeling in the pit of my stomach that I got when I saw the notification from the BBC app on my phone this morning just after 5 am hasn't gone away. Instead, it's worse than ever. God this feels absolutely hopeless.
    posted by Sonny Jim at 4:39 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    I can sort of see Sheffield - it’s a city that has never really recovered from the collapse of the steel industry - but why Birmingham?

    Birmingham has never really recovered from the collapse of the car industry and has huge problems with unemployment and graduate retention. Although there are very wealthy areas the city has never seemed to hang together in the way that Manchester or Liverpool do and certainly hasn't got the same unity and drive.
    posted by brilliantmistake at 4:39 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    If the Labour party ditch Corbyn then they are also going to lose the support from the young voters that signed up in droves to support him. The middle ground is a small and crowded playing area. The main problem is that as an actual anti-establishment figure Corbyn is up against the combined might of the establishment and the press. That and the fact that Corbyn has yet to find a left wing PR and spin doctor to help him, possibly due to the fact he hates all that noise. Unfortunately that is the fuel that the political machine runs on.
    posted by asok at 4:40 AM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


    But the car industry hasn’t collapsed! The UK is selling cars as fast as we can turn the things out. Maybe the *Birmingham* car industry has collapsed though?
    posted by pharm at 4:41 AM on June 24, 2016


    A lot of people commenting on Leave voting areas, pointing out that they usually don't have a number of migrants. Well, the strongest Leave areas are around the Wash--specifically Holland--which does have a high number of EU migrants. I don't think it suddenly makes it valid, but it's a counterpoint to the idea that Leave voters citing immigration as a reason have not experience of it.
    posted by Emma May Smith at 4:41 AM on June 24, 2016


    That and the fact that Corbyn has yet to find a left wing PR and spin doctor to help him, possibly due to the fact he hates all that noise. Unfortunately that is the fuel that the political machine runs on.

    Yes well, everyone that pointed out that regardless of his political views Corbyn appears to have his head in the clouds when it comes to doing what it takes to win elections has turned out to be absolutely right so far haven’t they? Politics is a contact sport: moaning about that doesn’t change the reality - it just means that you *don’t* *win*.
    posted by pharm at 4:43 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    Instead, internal squabbles, and letting the Tories dictate the terms of the debate entirely.

    That sums up the entire year since Corbyn was leader. So when exactly is he going to sort this group out?
    posted by like_neon at 4:44 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    It is kind of ironic that those areas most in receipt of EU money have all voted to Leave.
    posted by pharm at 4:45 AM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


    The British car industry collapsed, just not the car industry in Britain. All the old huge British automakers were based in and around the Midlands, and broadly don't exist any more (Jaguar has some limited production capacity here still, but that's about it). The cars that are made in Britain today are predominantly not British-badged (even though they're designed here usually, often exclusively for the UK or UK and EU market) and are made in factories in places like Luton, but Brum or Cov. "The British Car Industry" means something fairly specific in this circumstance - British Leyland, Austin, Climax, et al, proper old Midlands manufacturing, not just any old automobile industry in Britain.
    posted by Dysk at 4:46 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    > At a time when everyone is talking about the importance of and need for unity, the Labour party goes and does this.
    ...
    > If you want Corbyn gone, if he turns out to be a damp squib, there's plenty of time yet.

    Despite my above comment, I think a snap GE this autumn could be quite likely, after the Conservatives unify around their own new leader. Otherwise we have 4 years of a PM with no electoral mandate. In that event, Labour need a viable, popular leader, fast (unless the strategy is to wait out the next 5 years). I like Corbyn. I would like him to be that viable, popular leader. But at the moment, I do not see it, and his performance in this referendum, I agree, has been awfully lackluster.

    The Conservatives have just experienced a serious push rightward. The centre ground is open.
    posted by Quagkapi at 4:46 AM on June 24, 2016 [5 favorites]


    It is kind of ironic that those areas most in receipt of EU money have all voted to Leave.

    It seems to be a form of irony that we've exported from the US - it's the states that tend to receive a lot of Federal money that have the most people complaining about "the federal government getting too involved with people", as I understand it.
    posted by EmpressCallipygos at 4:47 AM on June 24, 2016 [10 favorites]


    Boris Johnson strutting out of the Total Perspective Vortex like "ALL IS WELL FOLKS"
    posted by duffell at 4:47 AM on June 24, 2016 [13 favorites]


    Re: Corbyn's leadership. There's a gender aspect to opposition against him as well as an ideological one; a sense that his circle is something of a boys' club and that promising female MPs are being ignored. Remember that Jo Cox came out as an outspoken critic of Corbyn in the months before she was assassinated.
    posted by Sonny Jim at 4:47 AM on June 24, 2016


    It is kind of ironic that those areas most in receipt of EU money have all voted to Leave.

    Yeah, but the sales pitch was that they'd get £350m more each week without the EU, so that's not so strange.
    posted by effbot at 4:48 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    I probably overlap with a majority of Corbyn's platform and I was happy to see some energy come from the left when he started getting attention and traction. But he's not a leader. He kind of reminds me of Sanders in this way.
    posted by like_neon at 4:48 AM on June 24, 2016 [5 favorites]


    this is like the biggest own goal in history.
    posted by localhuman at 4:48 AM on June 24, 2016 [38 favorites]


    That sums up the entire year since Corbyn was leader. So when exactly is he going to sort this group out?

    I'm of the opinion that it's the group that need to sort themselves out and really behind the leader with the biggest mandate the party has ever seen. But I guess you can blame Corbyn for all the knives in his back instead of the hands holding them, sure.
    posted by Dysk at 4:48 AM on June 24, 2016 [7 favorites]


    Also, the Leave campaign assured regional councils that the UK Treasury would compensate them for the loss of EU structural funds. Which seems completely pie in the sky, but still.
    posted by Sonny Jim at 4:49 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    It is kind of ironic that those areas most in receipt of EU money have all voted to Leave.

    The linking factor is that they're economically precarious. If you're poor you get EU funds. If you're poor you're more likely to seek to blame or hurt an external actor. There's no irony, just tragedy.
    posted by Emma May Smith at 4:50 AM on June 24, 2016 [12 favorites]


    I have enough space in my heart to hold them all equally accountable.
    posted by like_neon at 4:50 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    the Leave campaign assured regional councils that the UK Treasury would compensate them for the loss of EU structural funds

    Yuh. That's not going to happen. Birds fly. Fish swim. Tories lie.
    posted by Grangousier at 4:51 AM on June 24, 2016 [25 favorites]


    The linking factor is that they're economically precarious. If you're poor you get EU funds. If you're poor you're more likely to seek to blame or hurt an external actor. There's no irony, just tragedy.

    That's because you missed the bit where the irony comes in - the poor blaming the external actors that are directly alleviating their economic predicament and cutting off their own support. It's tragic too, of course.
    posted by Dysk at 4:53 AM on June 24, 2016 [5 favorites]




    Ah. I always wondered what it would feel like to live in a sociopolitical garbage fire.
    posted by harujion at 4:58 AM on June 24, 2016 [5 favorites]


    Yes Corbyn had a mandate. His performance is even more damning because of it. Did he use this mandate effectively, if at all? Where was this overwhelming support for him to lead when his party MPs weren't getting it together? I like the guy, really. I just don't think he's a good leader, he hasn't made good use of his year as leader, and now I'm afraid it's too late for Labour to recover.
    posted by like_neon at 4:58 AM on June 24, 2016 [5 favorites]


    The next James Bond movie will be just Bond spending 2 hours in passport control at Charles De Gaulle.
    posted by T.D. Strange at 5:00 AM on June 24, 2016 [84 favorites]


    The Conservatives have just experienced a serious push rightward. The centre ground is open.

    What the hell is the point of the Labour party if they're just going to go for the same policy platforms and positions add the Tories? I don't want them on the "centre ground" (which in the UK is right-wing as fuck by the standards of the rest of northern Europe) I want a fucking alternative, a left wing party. A choice between two colours of Tory is not a meaningful choice.
    posted by Dysk at 5:00 AM on June 24, 2016 [15 favorites]


    So this is a thing that is happening, but I don't know if it's linked to this or not. I just had to go round four different cash machines in the town centre before I found one that was not "out of service." It could just be the system having a bit of a Friday afternoon fail, but it did freak me out a little.
    posted by winterhill at 5:02 AM on June 24, 2016


    "But why wouldn't UK people just move to here or Canada?"

    *facepalm*

    My wife is American. We would LOVE to move to Canada. Anyone want to offer us jobs? No? Next on the list: America. I've got an American spouse of 2+ year (in a few months). We've got all our papers and evidence. It'll be at least $5k for my visa - more if we run on any snags at all - and can take 16 month.
    posted by harujion at 5:02 AM on June 24, 2016 [11 favorites]


    I still can't even Boris Buffoon Johnson being PM.

    My wife is American. We would LOVE to move to Canada. Anyone want to offer us jobs? No? Next on the list: America. I've got an American spouse of 2+ year (in a few months). We've got all our papers and evidence. It'll be at least $5k for my visa - more if we run on any snags at all - and can take 16 month.

    I looked into the possibility of uprooting myself and my wife to Australia in case of a Trump win. An 801 subclass is USD$5,485.00 alone. Before any lawyers. Australia wants five and a half thousand fucking dollars for a partner visa.
    posted by Talez at 5:07 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    everyone that pointed out that regardless of his political views Corbyn appears to have his head in the clouds when it comes to doing what it takes to win elections has turned out to be absolutely right so far haven’t they?

    Well, yes and no. He had the biggest mandate of any Labour leader, sticking to his tried and tested approach of avoiding the press and not playing schoolyard games in parliament has endeared him to some, but doesn't push his brand in the way that someone at the opposite end of the spectrum, such as Boris Johnson, does.

    Ideally we would have a charming Labour leader that was not a preening, Machiavellian monomaniac, however there is some debate whether there are any charming people who are not so some degree sociopathic.
    posted by asok at 5:07 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    But the car industry hasn’t collapsed! The UK is selling cars as fast as we can turn the things out. Maybe the *Birmingham* car industry has collapsed though?

    Funny - I'm sure 30,000 jobs in Birmingham were lost when MG Rover (the last domestically owned mass market car manufacturer) went down. Maybe I imagined it.

    JLR still employs people in the city but on nowhere near the scale that the industry used to and the supply chain doesn't really exist in the city like it used to.
    posted by brilliantmistake at 5:07 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    Canada sounds cool but America, really? Have you read their news recently? Or you may want to wait until November at the very least.
    posted by like_neon at 5:09 AM on June 24, 2016 [11 favorites]




    JLR still employs people in the city but on nowhere near the scale that the industry used to and the supply chain doesn't really exist in the city like it used to.

    My friends at JLR are really freaking out about the referendum result, and the fall in sterling. Even though they export most of their products, they firstly need access to the European market - their largest - and basically every major component is imported from mainland Europe, so the currency devaluation advantage for exports is non-existent.
    posted by Dysk at 5:12 AM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


    I must have missed this referendum: "UK votes to leave UN."
    posted by effbot at 5:14 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    effbot, and basically none of those cars are made in Brum or the Black Country, so they don't actually count against the closure of MG Rover.
    posted by Dysk at 5:14 AM on June 24, 2016




    I looked into what I would need for moving to Canada a while ago - sort of but not just in case of this result - and apparently they don't like you if you have a long-term mental health condition as you might be seen as a drain on social services. Given that I haven't seen a psych for three years and have been waiting for a referral since March, I can't see I could be any less of a drain.
    posted by mippy at 5:16 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    UK told to leave as soon as possible
    The reaction from the EU to Britain’s leave vote has been unequivocal - there is no going back. Not only that but they have told Britain to get a move on in invoking article 50 of the Lisbon treaty, which represents formal notification of the decision to leave
    posted by PenDevil at 5:16 AM on June 24, 2016 [11 favorites]


    It's funny: every time there's the potential for some awful election result in the US, people say they're going to move to Canada, and I laugh and laugh, because these folks clearly have never tried to immigrate anywhere. You don't just up and move: it's a long, difficult, expensive project, and there's no guarantee that the country you want to move to will be willing to take you.

    Of course, British people can just up and move to any one of 27 other countries, but that's what they voted to give up yesterday.
    posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 5:17 AM on June 24, 2016 [43 favorites]


    I looked into the possibility of uprooting myself and my wife to Australia in case of a Trump win. An 801 subclass is USD$5,485.00 alone. Before any lawyers. Australia wants five and a half thousand fucking dollars for a partner visa.

    Exactly. People who have never had to emigrate don't understand that it's a lot of money in paperwork alone to do so. You pay your money, think you do everything right, and they can still reject you. You don't get that money back!

    Waiting over here in Canada for our markets to wake up. The CBC is predicting this will also impact the CAD. Sigh. We've been below par for so long, it will really suck if it takes a serious hit again.
    posted by Kitteh at 5:17 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    (And while the number of cars produced in the UK may be a record number, the number of jobs involved in that is far from it. A modern, largely automated production line can produce many more cars with far fewer people than the traditional 70s heyday Midlands workshop full of women sewing interiors and men assembling things by hand, badly.)
    posted by Dysk at 5:18 AM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


    Before the referrendum I remember there was an interview with someone on the Leave side explaining that the car industry shouldn't have to worry because:

    1) He doesn't think Europe would stop buying UK cars just because they got more expensive to export
    2) And don't worry if German cars get expensive to import, British consumers can just buy British cars instead.

    Looking at this list of UK manufactured cars with Mini, Bentley, Aston Martin, Rolls Royce, Jaguar on it, argument number 2 sounds an awful lot like "Let them eat cake!"
    posted by like_neon at 5:18 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    If Cameron doesn't trigger Article 50 by COB the EU should immediately start Article 7 suspension proceedings. Immediately strip the passports of UK based financial services retailers.

    Don't pussyfoot around. The populace deserve to know just how much this will gut the UK economy.
    posted by Talez at 5:24 AM on June 24, 2016 [9 favorites]


    Easy for you to say, Yankee-boy.
    posted by Grangousier at 5:25 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    "Of course, British people can just up and move to any one of 27 other countries, but that's what they voted to give up yesterday."

    This is one of the things that pisses me off the most. Yesterday, I could have decided to move to Germany, or do a degree in Amsterdam, or stay in Spain for six months without a visa. Now I can't. I know people who have married sooner than they perhaps would have done for immigration purposes, and it is a long and expensive process. However, I've always wanted to live in another country for a while, and the only thing making it difficult for Europe was the whole business of getting older and putting down roots. Now it might be as difficult as migrating to the US.

    If Scotland become independent my Scots SO wants to go back there. It's tempting. Unfortunately I work in a very, very London-centric industry, one which caused us both to move to London from the North/Scotland in the first place, and quite a specific role within that. Sigh.
    posted by mippy at 5:26 AM on June 24, 2016 [5 favorites]


    "Let them eat cake!"

    Oh, if the market collapses completely, I'm sure Tata can start shipping Nanos to the UK. It'll probably takes some deregulation to make it street legal, but that shouldn't be a problem now.
    posted by effbot at 5:27 AM on June 24, 2016 [4 favorites]


    Easy for you to say, Yankee-boy.

    I'm a British subject and a Commonwealth Citizen.
    posted by Talez at 5:28 AM on June 24, 2016 [5 favorites]


    Cake?
    posted by goodnewsfortheinsane at 5:28 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    Can we not get Gordon Brown back? VAT of 15%. $2 to the pound. What a glorious time for internet shopping.

    On Facebook, there's a group dedicated to hunting down 'replica' items from AliExpress and they are all pissed off because things will now be more expensive. Many of the posters have 'Vote Out' avatars. Someone on my Twitter said that a colleague who voted out is now really pissed off at how much he paid for his euros this morning.
    posted by mippy at 5:28 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    Then sorry. I'm a bit touchy on that at the moment.
    posted by Grangousier at 5:28 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    Oh, if the market collapses completely, I'm sure Tata can start shipping Nanos to the UK.

    I read that as 'Nandos' and was going to say that now is not the time for Boris #banter and a cheeky Nandos.
    posted by mippy at 5:29 AM on June 24, 2016 [5 favorites]


    It's funny: every time there's the potential for some awful election result in the US, people say they're going to move to Canada, and I laugh and laugh, because these folks clearly have never tried to immigrate anywhere.

    Someone way upthread claimed that there is a similar degree of freedom of movement between the US and Canada as exists within the EU. Of course, this is completely false. Canada has a points-based immigration system. Unless you are a highly-educated elite professional with a job offer in hand, you (like me) are not getting any kind of work or residence visa from Canada, the end. Leave voters have no idea what they just threw away. There is nowhere else in the world which allows the freedom of movement that the EU does. I would kill for an EU passport and these people just gave it up for nothing.
    posted by enn at 5:29 AM on June 24, 2016 [57 favorites]


    Unfortunately I work in a very, very London-centric industry, one which caused us both to move to London from the North/Scotland in the first place, and quite a specific role within that.

    Finance? Because...
    posted by (Arsenio) Hall and (Warren) Oates at 5:29 AM on June 24, 2016


    What's the reaction of the public to the fact that their savings just took a haircut?
    posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 5:30 AM on June 24, 2016


    I'm a British subject and a Commonwealth Citizen.

    ...and thus basically unaffected by this, unlike those of us living in the UK.
    posted by Dysk at 5:31 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    I too think a punishment beating from the focal point of the argument is what's needed here. That'll learn us.
    posted by vbfg at 5:32 AM on June 24, 2016


    I would kill for an EU passport and these people just gave it up for nothing.

    Not for nothing. They gave it up because some racist, xenophobic, shitheel cuntlord said it would give the NHS more money and then said "oops" and took it back the moment his racist and xenophobic interests were satisfied.
    posted by Talez at 5:32 AM on June 24, 2016 [59 favorites]


    What's the Article 50 foot-dragging about? From all the rhetoric about independence and taking back control I'd have thought Gove and Johnson would be climbing over each other to push that button, but suddenly it's all "oh, no rush, no need for haste, we have all the time in the world..."
    posted by Catseye at 5:33 AM on June 24, 2016 [8 favorites]


    TBH I could use a cheeky Nando's right about now. And a pint of London Pride.

    Speaking of which, it actually is London Pride this weekend. Should be interesting.
    posted by like_neon at 5:34 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    What's the Article 50 foot-dragging about? From all the rhetoric about independence and taking back control I'd have thought Gove and Johnson would be climbing over each other to push that button, but suddenly it's all "oh, no rush, no need for haste, we have all the time in the world..."

    Their brinkmanship reached its sad, inevitable conclusion, and from the precipice they gazed into the abyss, only to realise that holy fuck, that is a LONG way down, maybe we should like, stop and think about this, hey?
    posted by Dysk at 5:37 AM on June 24, 2016 [37 favorites]


    And then Juncker prodded them in the small of the back.
    posted by Grangousier at 5:39 AM on June 24, 2016 [9 favorites]


    This Leave leadership reaction reminds me of Begbie throwing the bottle off the balcony, but instead of the fight he offers the girl a tissue and suggests calling an ambulance.
    posted by asok at 5:39 AM on June 24, 2016


    Europe is Lost.
    posted by Happy Dave at 5:40 AM on June 24, 2016 [7 favorites]


    What's the Article 50 foot-dragging about?

    Boris never believed in any of that; he doesn't believe in anything except Boris. Positioning himself as a "Leave" supporter and leader in the campaign set him up as the next Tory leader and PM if Remain lost. For Boris, personal ambition was the only point of the exercise. And now that he's likely to be the next PM he's not going to be in a hurry to trigger an actual exit (because while Cameron is going to be remembered with Chamberlain as "epic failure", being "the PM who presided over the breakup of the United Kingdom" wouldn't look good in the history books either), so he's probably hoping for some minor concession from the EU (limited border controls/restrictions on free movement, or something) so he can claim a victory and simultaneously become the saviour of the UK (extremely cynical, I know, but I wouldn't be the least surprised if that's the rough thought process).
    posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 5:40 AM on June 24, 2016 [11 favorites]


    Maybe a taxi rather than an ambulance. And doesn't offer to pay.
    posted by asok at 5:40 AM on June 24, 2016


    so he's probably hoping for some minor concession from the EU

    Juncker has stated that there will be no concessions. The UK can either stay or fuck off. And they better choose quick.

    If Boris thinks the EU will come crawling back to him I think he's going to be sorely mistaken.
    posted by Talez at 5:43 AM on June 24, 2016 [11 favorites]


    The post war baby boomers - the most privileged generation ever in terms of benefits, pensions, job security and rights have sold all of us down the river.

    Also the sun sets in the West.

    It's the Boomer's MO and it's not out of malice but entitlement. What's weird is that their self-interested naivete hasn't worn down much with time and life. They still think they're sticking it to the Man and being wise by living for the here and now.

    Nope, you're sticking it to your kids. And their kids. It is the opposite of wisdom.
    posted by snuffleupagus at 5:43 AM on June 24, 2016 [42 favorites]


    For everyone who is saying 'stop painting Leave supporters as bigots' take a look at this poll, especially in reference to attitudes for multiculturalism, social liberalism, feminism, immigration and the green movement.
    posted by Megami at 5:43 AM on June 24, 2016 [39 favorites]


    Juncker has stated that there will be no concessions. The UK can either stay or fuck off.

    He just doesn't want to risk any more countries following suit. It's what a negotiation looks like.

    Every few hundred comments I feel like pointing out that the EU is not a socialist project.
    posted by Coda Tronca at 5:56 AM on June 24, 2016 [5 favorites]


    I wonder whether Spain and Belgium would still block a Scottish ascension to the EU if Scotland did secede from the UK to rejoin the EU.
    posted by Talez at 5:57 AM on June 24, 2016


    The vote is in and now we must face the consequences.

    This is all work that need to be done. We've just poked a large series of holes in an already rusty and sinking ship (cf. enlightenement, internationalism, peace, social justice) and now we must repair them while others continue to poke.
    posted by lalochezia at 5:58 AM on June 24, 2016


    Every few hundred comments I feel like pointing out that the EU is not a socialist project.

    Of course not. It's technocratic if anything. Which the Sun and Daily Mail have no end of joy pointing out.
    posted by Talez at 5:58 AM on June 24, 2016


    ...there are about as many people in Texas as there are people who voted in the UK referendum.

    In my fantasy Texas votes to leave and the next day the President gives a speech stating he respects the decision, seals the borders around Texas, and cuts off all Federal funds flowing into Texas.

    30 days later Texas votes 98% to come back.
    posted by COD at 6:02 AM on June 24, 2016 [36 favorites]


    It is in the EU's interest to make this as nasty and painful a divorce as possible for Britain, pour encourager les autres. What further negotiations are to be had? The British have been recalcitrant already and had already secured for themselves special concessions from the EU, which they just shit away in a fit of pique. Either the EU brings the pain, or it hastens it own collapse by being seen as weak.
    posted by Chrischris at 6:04 AM on June 24, 2016 [18 favorites]


    Every few hundred comments I feel like pointing out that the EU is not a socialist project.

    And it's still so far left of Westminster politics as to not even be on the same scale.
    posted by Dysk at 6:05 AM on June 24, 2016 [15 favorites]


    English and Scottish people are different, but not in that they both want more freedom.
    They endeavour to avoid being thrown inside Moloch, who would condemn them ?
    Anyway, France did quite the same in 2005 - its government didn't really notice. I wonder if the Union isn't pressuring UK right now to send its government on a similar way to mend the damage done. i.e. pretending to respect people's will but at the same time following an unchanged agenda.
    posted by nicolin at 6:08 AM on June 24, 2016


    As an EU migrant living in Glasgow (and having lived here for a decade), I cannot tell you how reassuring to hear Nicola Sturgeon lead with a statement to EU citizens: "You remain welcome here, Scotland is your home and your contribution is valued" That was what finally made me break into tears. The relief.
    posted by kariebookish at 6:08 AM on June 24, 2016 [121 favorites]


    And it's still so far left of Westminster politics as to not even be on the same scale.

    Simply not true.
    posted by Coda Tronca at 6:09 AM on June 24, 2016


    These people who are all of a sudden confused about the actual consequences of this outcome, what did they think they were doing in the voting booths? Did they think this was just some sort of opinion poll? Or perhaps they have been too conditioned from years of X-Factor and didn't think the results would have any truly lasting effects.
    posted by like_neon at 6:10 AM on June 24, 2016 [7 favorites]


    These people who are all of a sudden confused about the actual consequences of this outcome, what did they think they were doing in the voting booths? Did they think this was just some sort of opinion poll?

    Honestly, if it's anything at all like what I've seen on this side of the pond, it was about choosing a side and then having that side win.

    What winning actually meant may have been a secondary consideration.
    posted by Mooski at 6:13 AM on June 24, 2016 [20 favorites]




    Or perhaps they have been too conditioned from years of X-Factor and didn't think the results would have any truly lasting effects.

    Let's not be too hasty. The de facto breakup of One Direction has wounded the UK in a way that will take a generation and a reunion concert in twenty years to heal.
    posted by Talez at 6:15 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    The mood of the leavers on my Facebook is remarkably subdued, given their previous enthusiasm. A lot saying "well it's going to hurt in the short term, but we'll be better off in the long run".
    posted by threetwentytwo at 6:15 AM on June 24, 2016


    Living in the Midlands, currently unable to work and on a one-year waiting list for a corrective surgery that I could never afford privately, and for which the expertise doesn't exist in much of the rest of Europe, I am worried. Nobody is reassuring me, and I am deeply deeply worried that I might end up losing access to the NHS before the procedure, leaving me effectively permanently crippled due to having major surgery on the NHS and never being able to have the minor correction done.
    posted by Dysk at 6:16 AM on June 24, 2016 [8 favorites]




    > As an EU migrant living in Glasgow (and having lived here for a decade), I cannot tell you how reassuring to hear Nicola Sturgeon lead with a statement to EU citizens: "You remain welcome here, Scotland is your home and your contribution is valued" That was what finally made me break into tears. The relief.

    That is a lovely thing to hear. I wonder if people like me, from England, will be as welcome if we make the move and decide to make a contribution to Scotland rather than staying on this sinking ship.
    posted by winterhill at 6:17 AM on June 24, 2016 [5 favorites]


    One Direction didn't win X-Factor that year. Matt Cardle won. Who? Exactly.
    posted by like_neon at 6:20 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    I knew I'd wake up to a bunch of defensive "well I voted for Leave but for these other reasons; I'm not a racist" comments. In the U.S., our equivalent I guess are the disaffected Bernie voters or just overall Clinton haters who are totally fine with Trump winning because it will "send a message" or "it won't hurt them personally" or whatever.

    We get it, guys. Congratulations on you, personally, not being a racist.

    Also, congratulations on the victory for the coalition you formed with a bunch of fucking racists to give them everything they wanted.
    posted by XQUZYPHYR at 6:22 AM on June 24, 2016 [122 favorites]


    These people who are all of a sudden confused about the actual consequences of this outcome, what did they think they were doing in the voting booths? Did they think this was just some sort of opinion poll? Or perhaps they have been too conditioned from years of X-Factor and didn't think the results would have any truly lasting effects.
    It sounds like, to a large extent, leave voters are people who feel disenfranchised. And one thing about feeling powerless is that it's hard to think about consequences. If you feel like you have no agency, then everything you do is basically symbolic, or else it's meaningless. I think it must be weird for people to wake up and realize that they weren't so powerless and now they may be fucked.
    posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 6:22 AM on June 24, 2016 [50 favorites]


    "Mom, Dad, it's nativism! Don't touch it!"
    posted by nom de poop at 6:23 AM on June 24, 2016 [24 favorites]


    Morgan Stanley say they are not moving their staff, and the stock market meltdown is not happening.

    Slavoj Zizek once remarked that 'it is easier to imagine the end of the world than the end of capitalism.'
    posted by Coda Tronca at 6:24 AM on June 24, 2016 [10 favorites]


    Well, as long as those 2000 jobs were only held by $PEJORATIVE_SLANG_FOR_IRISH and $PEJORATIVE_SLANG_FOR_GERMAN the Leavers won't regard this as a loss of British jobs at all.

    Or I don't know, I was up all night so it's hard for me to tell what an actually incisive bitter joke would look like.

    My only ray of hope is that the referendum is advisory not compulsory, and the major corporations are not going to like this leaving nonsense at all - and as noted, the EU is not a socialist institution and the main reason British government has been resistant to the EU all along is the desire to have a starving working class while protecting the interests of the rich - something they were doing very successfully up until now. The paradox being that finagling a way to stay in response to putative pressure from corporations might be the only thing that saves us hoi polloi from something even worse.
    posted by tel3path at 6:24 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    Regrets, I've had a few:
    Cornwall has issued an urgent plea for reassurance that it will not be worse off following the Brexit vote. The county has received "significant amounts" of funding from the EU for the past 15 years due to its "relatively weak economy". But, following the vote to leave the Union, the council says it is seeking urgent reassurance money allocated to it will still be received.
    posted by (Arsenio) Hall and (Warren) Oates at 6:26 AM on June 24, 2016 [16 favorites]


    I am deeply deeply worried that I might end up losing access to the NHS before the procedure

    I am very sorry to hear that, Dysk. But I refuse to believe the world has gone that mad, or will do so so quickly. Best thoughts, strong wishes, and hopes of assurance from house quidnunc.
    posted by the quidnunc kid at 6:29 AM on June 24, 2016 [8 favorites]


    Supposing I were living in an alternate reality where instead of being an middle-class, middle-aged American living in a major US city, I were the same guy as a Brit living in London.

    What will be the "boots-on-the-ground", practical consequences of this decision? Does it mean that imported goods are immediately tariffed so that my French champagne and cheese are 20% more expensive? Does it mean that I have to wait in longer passport lines when I ride Eurostar to Paris?

    I guess what I'm wondering is, what are the expected, tangible effects for the average "man in the street" in the UK? (i.e. not the existential or symbolic effects or impact on national or personal identity)

    What's really going to change?
    posted by theorique at 6:30 AM on June 24, 2016


    It could just be my social circle, but I've never seen such widespread and outspoken shock and horror at a world event. Even the people who never talk about politics seem to be quite upset about this.
    posted by schmod at 6:32 AM on June 24, 2016 [6 favorites]


    This happened yesterday.....what a great time to weaken the European project.

    Reuters: Russia seen putting new nuclear-capable missiles along NATO border by 2019 (deployment of Iskander mobile systems to Kaliningrad)
    posted by snuffleupagus at 6:33 AM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


    Remember: The British government deliberately ignored will of the people when it decided not to name a research vessel Boaty McBoatFace.

    Let's hope they have the same wisdom this time around.

    How bad would the consequences be if parliament ignores the referendum? Would they be easier to live with?
    posted by schmod at 6:34 AM on June 24, 2016 [16 favorites]


    Coda Tronca is making a good point. At this point with David Cameron gone by oct and 3 months for the world to sort out what this means seems like the best outcome after the vote.

    I mean it's still a clusterfuck just less of one.
    posted by Annika Cicada at 6:34 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]




    Dow drops 500 points in three minutes after opening bell...

    Jesus.
    posted by Windopaene at 6:34 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    Juncker has stated that there will be no concessions. The UK can either stay or fuck off.

    Actually it sounds more like he said, "fuck right off, and do it quickly". You made your choice, now get on with it. No takesy backsies.
    posted by T.D. Strange at 6:35 AM on June 24, 2016 [14 favorites]


    AbritraryAndCapricious - this is a very good point, thanks. I have also felt that it was rather irresponsible for the government/Cameron to abdicate this decision to the general public and it's got a lot to do with this. We should just decide who our local MP is and what day to take out the rubbish. It is the MPs job to be informed enough to make such enormous decisions for the national good. That's why we (theoretically) vote for them. This is why we don't put going to war to a vote.
    posted by like_neon at 6:35 AM on June 24, 2016 [4 favorites]


    I'm reminded of a Jimmy Carr joke. "If someone who doesn't speak English comes here and takes your job, you're shit!". Well, not so much a joke, as something people are going to quote when they try to explain the seething contempt the elite in the UK have for its poor and economically vulnerable that lead us to this state.

    If you think this was about privilege consider: You're arguing the tremendously privileged sods who are below the C1 demographic, have no qualifications, limited education, and who are looking at old age without the NHS were overruling the terribly oppressed wealthy, educated, mobile, and young.

    I said it at the beginning, and I'll say it at the end. We've let our societies get so unequal and so utterly disregarding of the less fortunate that at least half the people who are motivated to vote are so angry and so distrustful of everyone and everything that a pack of demagogues can lead them off a cliff. We are looking at the death of democracy here. This is literally how they go, things get so bad that when some asshole rides up on a white horse with a plan to fix things they're voted into power.
    posted by Grimgrin at 6:35 AM on June 24, 2016 [15 favorites]


    Footage of Boris Johnson giving speeches today is not encouraging. There's a real look of fear in his eyes. He looks small and scared. Coupled with Farage's premature concession last night, it really does give the impression of a piece of political brinkmanship that got well out of control. Nobody really wanted this, not even large chunks of the Leave team.
    posted by Sonny Jim at 6:36 AM on June 24, 2016 [31 favorites]


    Dow drops 500 points in three minutes after opening bell...

    Jesus.
    posted by Windopaene at 9:34 AM on June 24 [+] [!]


    This is to be expected, and a number of those markets are going to be bumpy for a while. If you are an investor and you have cash, there will some stellar buying opportunities. If you're (like most people) in a long-term position, just ride it out.
    posted by Thistledown at 6:37 AM on June 24, 2016 [5 favorites]


    Reuters: Russia seen putting new nuclear-capable missiles along NATO border by 2019 (deployment of Iskander mobile systems to Kaliningrad)

    They must be overjoyed. Westward expansion is very much on the table for them now.
    posted by Artw at 6:37 AM on June 24, 2016 [6 favorites]


    I've seen this a lot on Twitter -- "Let this be a warning about Trump!" Well, okay. I mean I'm petrified that Trump will be elected. What the hell do you want me to do about it? The only people who can guarantee that Trump is not elected are Republicans and Republican-leaning independents standing up to him and saying "NO." If they don't do that, then it's a 50/50 race. Since I'm not one of those people I'm not really sure what I'm supposed to do to "wake up" to the danger that Trump is.

    No hyperbole -- is this what it was like living in the 1930s? Just watching nations make horrible decisions and powerless to stop it, just sitting around hoping it doesn't get worse.
    posted by (Arsenio) Hall and (Warren) Oates at 6:38 AM on June 24, 2016 [49 favorites]


    The current headlines from the video-clip sidebar on the BBC News homepage, in order:
    • Cameron says UK 'needs fresh leadership'
    • Merkel: 'We have to remain calm'
    • Donald Trump: 'Brexit is a good thing'
    So, yeah. No reason to worry. Everything is fine. Nothing is on fire. These are normal headlines that would never be cause for alarm.
    posted by schmod at 6:40 AM on June 24, 2016 [10 favorites]


    What the hell do you want me to do about it?

    Vote. Make sure everybody you know votes. Drive mom to the polls. Spread awareness – call out their lies.
    posted by schmod at 6:41 AM on June 24, 2016 [12 favorites]


    Can we keep this thread about the UK referendum? There are other threads for Trump and US elections.
    posted by winterhill at 6:42 AM on June 24, 2016 [50 favorites]


    Keep it just to the UK referendum in what way? The whole reason why people are freaking about this is because this affects the global economy and is going to set off a chain reaction of potentially frightening events.
    posted by (Arsenio) Hall and (Warren) Oates at 6:44 AM on June 24, 2016 [11 favorites]


    Turbulence and Uncertainty for the Market After ‘Brexit’ - Peter S. Goodman, NYT:
    Most broadly, the vote is likely to resonate as a sign that major democracies are increasingly vulnerable to the influence of populist political movements that curry favor by demonizing immigrants and external forces such as officials in Brussels and Washington, low-wage workers in China and Mexico.

    The noisy and acrimonious campaign over leaving the bloc played on inchoate fears in Europe and much of the developed world: dismay over globalization at a time of intensified competition for jobs, and angst over immigration as it refashions conceptions of national identity. Those sentiments will surely find additional avenues for expression, challenging trade arrangements, reinvigorating existential questions about the shared euro currency and sowing uncertainty throughout the financial realm.
    posted by joseph conrad is fully awesome at 6:44 AM on June 24, 2016


    2016: Remain calm. Nothing is on fire.
    posted by Sonny Jim at 6:44 AM on June 24, 2016 [18 favorites]


    I am calm. Did it help?
    posted by Namlit at 6:47 AM on June 24, 2016 [8 favorites]




    It does look like Farage actually didn't really want it, just like Corbyn didn't really want to be Labour leader.
    posted by Coda Tronca at 6:48 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    Alright, you non-believers. Don't you feel just a little bit like maybe the Antichrist is coming?
    posted by dances_with_sneetches at 6:48 AM on June 24, 2016 [10 favorites]


    I'm okay with the events that are unfolding currently.
    posted by asok at 6:49 AM on June 24, 2016 [7 favorites]


    > I'm okay with the events that are unfolding currently.

    What events? Also, if you want someone to commiserate with locally, just send me a memail.
    posted by winterhill at 6:51 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    that's okay, things are going to be okay
    posted by entropicamericana at 6:53 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    Can we keep this thread about the UK referendum?

    [Totally a fair point -- though in this case I do get if folks draw parallels, and Trump did sort of insert himself into this story by casually materializing in Scotland for some reason. But you're right to note that the topic of this thread is clear and it should not become Another US Election Thread or some kind of proxy thereof. So as always feel free to flag anything that looks like it really shouldn't be here and we'll take a look.]
    posted by goodnewsfortheinsane at 6:54 AM on June 24, 2016 [12 favorites]




    Thanks winterhill! Just a meme in this case referring to Nothing is on fire.
    posted by asok at 6:54 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    Mefi's Own Flashboy on post-Brexit Britain.

    Also a woman calling Boris Johnson a twat on Sky News.

    Both cheered me up a bit.

    But only a bit.
    posted by Happy Dave at 6:55 AM on June 24, 2016 [12 favorites]


    we haven't voted away EU regulations (which we'll have to conform to), just the ability to affect those regulations; we haven't voted away the need to pay money to the EU, just the rebate and any subsidies that EU membership might have entitled us to

    I don't really understand this. How will England still be bound by this?
    posted by corb at 6:56 AM on June 24, 2016


    O hey, messrs fear, doubt and despair? Fuck you guys!1
    1 not a commentary on any previous comment, nor a command to fellow MeFites, but rather an apostrophe to introduce:

    A wistful sonnet upon the contemplation of losing my rights under Articles 20(1) and 20(2)(a) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union

    No, now is not the hour for despair
    What victory have they who do not love
    The love we have, who care for other cares?
    If culture's just what everybody does

    Then I'll do only hope, and never hate
    Even if they take away those rights
    In Articles that I thought truly great
    In Treaties fairly-fashioned (to my sight).

    Sweet immigration made me all I'll be
    As all my forebears came and went again
    As migrants, economic refugees,
    From parts of former empire. But, then -

    O blessèd day! - when granted my degree in
    Britishness ... then was I European.
    posted by the quidnunc kid at 6:57 AM on June 24, 2016 [23 favorites]


    How will England still be bound by this?

    They still trade with EU countries. (well, presumably)
    posted by (Arsenio) Hall and (Warren) Oates at 6:57 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    I don't really understand this. How will England still be bound by this?

    If you want to sell products into the European single market (the largest trade bloc in the world and our biggest export destination by far) you have to conform to EU regulations. So, like Norway, we'll still have to obey the rules, we'll just have zero say in them.

    Also it's Britain/the UK, not England. England may have fucked the rest of us in the UK, but please stop making this elementary mistake.
    posted by Happy Dave at 6:59 AM on June 24, 2016 [19 favorites]


    How will England still be bound by this?

    If they still want to trade with the EU, they will have to conform to EU standards anyway, or be locked out of the market. They'll also have to pay the EU for access to that market anyway. Only now they have no say in those regulations, and will get nothing else in return.
    posted by T.D. Strange at 6:59 AM on June 24, 2016 [7 favorites]


    > I don't really understand this. How will England still be bound by this?

    You know all those annoying confirmations of cookies that started popping up on just about all websites?

    That's the product of an EU regulation. You want to sell to the EU you abide by their regulations. US companies as well as British.
    posted by vbfg at 6:59 AM on June 24, 2016


    Finance? Because...
          Just heard this rumour in the City: both @BNPParibas and @jpmorgan planning to relocate to Paris


    Erm don't mean to point out the obvious but both the P and Pari in BNPParibas refer to Paris. Banque Nationale de Paris. That said, the underlying probability is true – I work in La Défense, which is France's financial and energy management sector. Lots of friends and colleagues working in various banks with offices in London. They're all saying the same thing: why stay in London now when Paris is nearby and offices are available? Indeed, in an interesting coincidence, IT departments have been moved out of offices here over the past year, to cheaper office rents in northern suburbs, leaving a lot of La Défense office real estate available. My colleagues are saying that their bosses are visibly delighted at the prospect of bringing London outposts here.

    I'm really worried for friends in England and English friends here in France. All of them were Remain; their networks are inextricably tied to the EU. They honestly don't know what they're going to do.

    It will also be "interesting" (in the "may you live in interesting times" sense) to see what happens to retired UK citizens who made the most of the EU to buy property in Provence and in Spain... it's got to be a huge worry for them.
    posted by fraula at 7:01 AM on June 24, 2016 [10 favorites]


    Hillary Clinton, on Facebook: We respect the choice the people of the United Kingdom have made. Our first task has to be to make sure that the economic uncertainty created by these events does not hurt working families here in America. We also have to make clear America's steadfast commitment to the special relationship with Britain and the transatlantic alliance with Europe. This time of uncertainty only underscores the need for calm, steady, experienced leadership in the White House to protect Americans' pocketbooks and livelihoods, to support our friends and allies, to stand up to our adversaries, and to defend our interests. It also underscores the need for us to pull together to solve our challenges as a country, not tear each other down.
    posted by roomthreeseventeen at 7:01 AM on June 24, 2016 [16 favorites]


    I don't really understand this. How will England still be bound by this?
    Trade partners still have to abide by the regulations of their partners. (Mostly. I mean, China will still attempt to sell poison floors/walls/dog food to Americans. But when we find out Bad Things(tm) can happen as per our trade agreements.)
    posted by xyzzy at 7:01 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    Its going to be hilarious when the UK bails out its local industries and then the EU puts anti-dumping tariffs on the products.
    posted by JPD at 7:02 AM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


    Millions of people who weren't able to vote in this referendum - because they are EU citizens right? - are now feeling shaky about their entire future.

    Immigrants from all nations now feel less secure about their place in the UK.

    Young people are now facing an endless recession and the prospect of walls being put up so that they cannot go and make their future in another country

    Scotland is deadly serious about leaving. Sturgeon has stated another referendum will be called and is already meeting with EU leaders. So, goodbye United Kingdom.

    Any "deals" the UK does with the EU will be as a tiny country with a crashing economy, negotiating against an enormous bloc who wants to turn them into an example. You guess what kind of deal that will be.

    The United States does not care about the UK as much as the UK thinks it does.

    The people who voted Leave because they were unhappy with the state of affairs may discover to their dismay that it will get worse.

    There's a German word for this: Verschlimmbesserung
    "A supposed improvement that makes things worse."
    posted by vacapinta at 7:03 AM on June 24, 2016 [117 favorites]


    Okay, in the first place, a middle-class Londoner doesn't have the disposable income to spend the money on those kinds of luxury goods and travel, at least not routinely. That doesn't mean they won't be spending money on those things, but they can't afford them.

    I'm old enough to remember the anticipation of 1992 and in particular my dad's optimism that it would bring in a whole new raft of worker's rights. At that time, immediately pre-1992, I had had to come home to my working-class household in a depressed town because I couldn't ever get enough of the right kind of paperwork for the French authorities to hand over my carte de séjour - which I believe is still a requirement - nor to open a bank account in France, such that I couldn't be paid even though technically employed.

    Because I was on a year off, I of course was not entitled to the last remnants of a student grant, which still existed then (a full grant was usually just enough to cover rent on a room in a shared house, but nothing else in the way of subsistence). Because I was a student (and in any case had quit my job abroad) I wasn't entitled to benefits, since that was the year they took such things away from students. My parents kept sending me to the job centre despite my protests, the job centre kept turning me away after my three hour queuing sessions, because "we don't get jobs for students any more, we only get jobs for people who need them". I was eventually, about five months into my year off, saved by a zero-hours contract as a cleaner at the local hospital (I had applied to be a porter at £8000 per year, but it turned out that porters were men. Women were cleaners and earned £6000 per year, so that's what I was hired as). Of course I was deeply in debt with an APR of 27% from my Parisian sojourn and my time without income, so I didn't make much progress financially that year.

    The student grant is of course a thing of the past, while an undergraduate degree is much more of a requirement now than it was then (in those days only 15% of my age group went on to university). Nowadays it's funded by personal debt, though not as much as it is in the USA. Still, higher education the UK has much more in common with the USA in terms of how much it costs the student, compared to the rest of Europe. This was never going to change and in fact was only ever going to get worse regardless of whether the UK remained in the EU.

    Likewise, access to benefits is worse, and much more restricted for those aged under 25 who are now explicitly expected to live in the family home and be dependent on their parents. Unemployment may be lower, though the way unemployment rates are calculated may be different (as described above I didn't fit into the unemployment statistics).

    People talk about zero-hours contracts as if they were a new thing, but maybe they're only new to the middle classes; I wouldn't know.

    I don't know about job role and pay ratios currently; I looked up vacancies for my local hospital but the only one advertised was for a porter; there was no cleaner's vacancy to compare it to.

    I can however testify that due to improved information systems, that kind of long queuing at the job centre is a thing of the past. During the relatively extensive amounts of time I spent there in the last 10 years, I was neve