Ukraine war month seven, Russia mobilizes

September 23, 2022 9:43 AM

Russia has been on the receiving end of the Ukrainian counter offensive for about four weeks now, and things have not been going well for them. During the retreat from the Kharkiv area, the 1st Guards Tank Army, the most prestigious major unit of the Russian Army, was for all intents and purposes routed. Russia's major reinforcement unit, the 3rd Army Corps, was moved into theater and practically melted away. In reaction to these events, the Duma has pushed through a new conscription law, and the Kremlin has announced a partial mobilization. How many people will be called in is unclear, as one clause of the order is secret. Russian industry has also been urged to ramp up production.

• Finnish Dr. Janne M. Korhonen, researcher in industrial economy and production, on how Russian industrial mobilization cannot alter the outcome of the war.
• Lawrence Freedman writing on the mobilization in Foreign Affairs: All the Tsar's Men
• The Kremlin will consider Kyiv's attempts to return Donbass after its entry into the Russian Federation as attacks on Russia, Presidential Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov said at a press briefing.

The next milestone is the arrival of rasputitsa, the "mud season", when travel anywhere outside of paved roads is difficult, and it will likely put a damper on military ground operations. After that winter is coming, with hard, frozen ground that is suitable for maneuvering, but at the same time the harsh conditions of the Ukrainian winter will put added stress on the ground forces of both sides.

The ones suffering the most in this war is the Ukrainian population, and Support Ukraine Now provides a list of ways to help out. Christmas is approaching, and if you'd like to support Ukraine by shopping there, here's a list from Twitter of Ukrainian online stores that takes orders from abroad.

posted by Harald74 (837 comments total)

The last bullet points was in reference to the sham referendums being performed in the occupied parts of Ukraine right now.
posted by Harald74 at 9:48 AM on September 23, 2022 [1 favorite]

And the initial investigation of the UN Independent International Commission of Inquiry on Ukraine has concluded that, indeed, war crimes have been committed, overwhelmingly by Russian soldiers:

The Commission has visited 27 towns and settlements and has interviewed more than 150 victims and witnesses. We have inspected sites of destruction, graves, places of detention and torture, as well as weapon remnants, and consulted a large number of documents and reports. The Commission met with Government authorities, international organisations, civil society, and other relevant stakeholders.

Based on the evidence gathered by the Commission, it has concluded that war crimes have been committed in Ukraine.

posted by jedicus at 9:57 AM on September 23, 2022 [18 favorites]

Social media is flowing over with video clips showing the not-so-smooth parts of the Russian mobilization. Here are a few from Twitter: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7
posted by Harald74 at 10:04 AM on September 23, 2022 [9 favorites]

From the first Twitter link, what is an "alco-battalion"?
posted by wenestvedt at 10:08 AM on September 23, 2022

“Anatoly Gerashchenko, the former head of the Moscow Aviation Institute, has died after falling down the stairs at the institute.”

Stairs and windows are fucking menaces in Moscow.
posted by Pirate-Bartender-Zombie-Monkey at 10:09 AM on September 23, 2022 [45 favorites]

Ezra Klein - Why Russia is Losing the War in Ukraine
posted by overhauser at 10:09 AM on September 23, 2022 [1 favorite]

From the first Twitter link, what is an "alco-battalion"?

I believe it's commentary on how much they appear to be drinking.
posted by AndrewInDC at 10:10 AM on September 23, 2022 [5 favorites]

tbf I wouldn't want to go into the wood chipper sober either
posted by ryanrs at 10:13 AM on September 23, 2022 [26 favorites]

Wikipedia has an article about all the sudden deaths in the top levels of Russian society.
posted by Harald74 at 10:14 AM on September 23, 2022 [15 favorites]

alco-battalion

maybe the manner of recruitment and the type of person going willingly.

Konstantin of Inside Russia addresses mobilization, somewhat obliquely as is his way.
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:14 AM on September 23, 2022 [3 favorites]

Those videos are harrowing. I didn't know that today would be the day I felt bad for Russian soldiers. Fuck Putin.
posted by Keith Talent at 10:20 AM on September 23, 2022 [9 favorites]

From the first Twitter link, what is an "alco-battalion"?

A battalion that gets the DTs when supply lines are cut.
posted by Horkus at 10:20 AM on September 23, 2022 [10 favorites]

These draftees are involuntary; are there also numbers of barrier troops to prevent them from surrendering, fragging their commanders, or mutinying? They're actually drafting anti-war protestors.
posted by meowzilla at 10:23 AM on September 23, 2022 [11 favorites]

My understanding is that "mobilization" meant these men called up already had some military training. Are they really conscripting civilians in large numbers now??

That's both slow and also self-defeating, isn't it?
posted by wenestvedt at 10:25 AM on September 23, 2022 [2 favorites]

They're actually drafting anti-war protestors.

I've also read that they're drafting elderly men, diabetics, barely-18-year-olds....

I also have read that there are so many people actively trying to drive out of Russia to escape conscription that the lines at the checkpoints in Georgia, Mongolia, and other surrounding borders are a day or two long.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 10:26 AM on September 23, 2022 [4 favorites]

Stairs and windows are fucking menaces in Moscow.

Clearly they're more dangerous than the army is.
posted by Greg_Ace at 10:34 AM on September 23, 2022 [1 favorite]

@KofmanMichael: "Appears the initial mobilized wave will receive 2 weeks of training. This is an incredibly short amount of time especially given the process is more de facto phased general mobilization. It suggests Russian mil desperation to stabilize their lines by throwing people at the front."
posted by gwint at 10:35 AM on September 23, 2022 [7 favorites]

"Interesting opinion on mobilisation from Rus. blogger Mikhail Pozharsky: He believes Russian gov-t broke the pact with citizens in that they wouldn't be involved in wars and could instead follow them on TV like sports (Georgia, Syria). The consequences are unpredictable now."
posted by gwint at 10:45 AM on September 23, 2022 [26 favorites]

Ukraine isn't out of the woods yet, but I've been repeatedly stunned at the series of Russian reversals. I served in the US 1st Armored Division, and I cannot fathom the amount of casualties and equipment losses the Russians have taken. This was unforeseeable.

So many unbelievable events:
I couldn't believe it when Ukrainian forces repelled Spetsnaz from the airfields.
When Russian forces didn't take (or even encircle!) Kyiv.
When massively outgunned Ukrainian forces held on to most of the country.
When Ukraine launched a successful strategic counterattack.
When Russia decided to conduct a broad draft of citizens (who from reports are closer to 1 million men, and not all reservists). You don't just throw people behind a rifle. That won't work on a modern battlefield, especially in winter.

It's not over, and I do not envy the Ukrainian troops for the winter exposure they're about to suffer. But even to someone who was immersed in the military for years, this is an insane turn of events. This could be one of those WWI-like shifts in military capability and global balance of power. Probably signalling that with some cheap modern tech (drones, satellite imagery) and hard nosed troops, smaller forces can now hold off overwhelming technology and numbers. There were signs of this in the Armenian-Azerbaijani clashes, but not with a superpower being repulsed on its doorstep.

The scary side of this are the "what if's." Like, what if Putin, pushed into a political corner, decides to go beyond conventional warfare. Or what if regions decide they've had enough of Putin but it's not a clean removal from power, leading to a vast Russian regional civil war.

I hate living in interesting times.

Good luck, Ukraine, stay free.
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 10:45 AM on September 23, 2022 [101 favorites]

"Appears the initial mobilized wave will receive 2 weeks of training. This is an incredibly short amount of time especially given the process is more de facto phased general mobilization. It suggests Russian mil desperation to stabilize their lines by throwing people at the front."

If true, that's the sign of a military in collapse. It suggests that the condition of the Russian army is worse than we suspect and the brass know it --or at least fear it is so.

One wonders if the recent Russian bellicosity is because they fear a vengeful Ukrainian army pushing into Russian territory, if not all the way to Moscow.
posted by Gelatin at 10:45 AM on September 23, 2022 [8 favorites]

It suggests Russian mil desperation to stabilize their lines by throwing people at the front.

This isn't desperation on the part of the Russian military. There's no professional military person in the entire world who likes conscription or thinks that you can make a soldier in two weeks. This is the political leadership saying "WELL FINE THEN HERE YOU GO. TAKE A MILLION PEOPLE. JUST WIN ME THE FUCKING WAR ALREADY." The military leadership knows that these people will be more trouble than they're worth, in every possible dimension.
posted by Etrigan at 10:48 AM on September 23, 2022 [67 favorites]

they fear a vengeful Ukrainian army pushing into Russian territory, if not all the way to Moscow.

Logistically almost impossible just based on food, bullets, and gas. Also, nuclear weapons are fundamentally defensive weapons in land warfare. You can't execute large equipment, supply and troop buildups (like in WWII) if the defending entity can simply drop a nuke in the middle of it.
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 10:49 AM on September 23, 2022 [11 favorites]

Where is a refenestrator when you need one?
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 10:51 AM on September 23, 2022 [8 favorites]

Twitter: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7

I've read that this mobilization is only good enough to delay Russia's eventual loss — but I'm beginning to think it'll speed up Ukraine's victory.
posted by UN at 10:51 AM on September 23, 2022 [4 favorites]

Here's the equipment the herd of mobiks are receiving.

One of the awful equipment-based situations in authoritarian regimes is not trusting draftee or "line" units with modern equipment. The "Guard" or "Republican Guard" type units get the most modern equipment. The assumption being that there will be revolutions, and the troops and officers most closely tied to the regime's success must have all the advantages. You don't want one million draftees pointing the canon at you.

I do imagine that the photo is of a "training weapon" and something more modern would be issued before entering a combat zone. The US for instance issues "rubber ducky" rifles first, which are indeed just correctly molded and weighted rubber mock ups.
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 10:57 AM on September 23, 2022 [19 favorites]

Won't so many of us have egg on our faces should it turn out all these defenestrations are due to a shoddy Russian window manufacturer.
posted by tclark at 10:58 AM on September 23, 2022 [24 favorites]

Side note: I hate that I know so much about all the military stuff. After I left the military, grew up, and got an education, I became quite the peacenik.

Forgive me if I'm droning on too much with my point of view/experience.
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 10:59 AM on September 23, 2022 [45 favorites]

It's just going to be a bloodbath going up against Ukrainians with modern weapons and high morale.

It does feel like there will be a whole bunch of Suomussalmi and Raate Road-style battles to come.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 10:59 AM on September 23, 2022 [2 favorites]

I appreciate your perspective, Abehammerb Lincoln. I welcome your comments.
posted by Bella Donna at 11:01 AM on September 23, 2022 [54 favorites]

What I don't know about war could fill libraries, but... how could these soldiers could just surrender to Ukrainian troops the minute they're across the borders?
posted by BuddhaInABucket at 11:04 AM on September 23, 2022 [2 favorites]

And it's a general mobilization. They're grabbing anyone they can find.

There are a lot of reports that it's not that "general" in that they're absolutely concentrating on ethnic minorities /regions within Russia and being less intense with traditionally "Russian" areas and cities, because of course if Putin can mix in some ethnic cleansing with his disaster war then so much the better for him.
posted by mightygodking at 11:07 AM on September 23, 2022 [23 favorites]

What I don't know about war could fill libraries, but... how could these soldiers could just surrender to Ukrainian troops the minute they're across the borders?

Same as at Stalingrad. Political officers and NCOs with "shoot in the back" orders. With no intention to shame the Soviet soldiers who fought to the death against fascists. But there were a lot of conscripts, and that was how they dealt with defection.

Also, can Ukraine feed that many prisoners?
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 11:07 AM on September 23, 2022 [12 favorites]

how could these soldiers could just surrender to Ukrainian troops the minute they're across the borders?

1. kill officers (if necessary)
2. tie white hankies to rifles
3. hold hanky-rifles up as flags, march towards nearest Ukrainian division
posted by mightygodking at 11:08 AM on September 23, 2022 [3 favorites]

I'm getting an awful Stalin in WWII vibe from Putin. Stalin basically threw humans as meat into his campaign.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 11:11 AM on September 23, 2022 [6 favorites]

how could these soldiers could just surrender to Ukrainian troops the minute they're across the borders?

In addition to Abehammerb and MGK's points, Putin knows he's lost the war part of the war, but any result of loosing thousands and thousands of barely-trained conscriptees into Ukrainian territory means chaos, and that's almost as good from his vantage point.
posted by Etrigan at 11:12 AM on September 23, 2022 [4 favorites]

Probably signalling that with some cheap modern tech (drones, satellite imagery) and hard nosed troops, smaller forces can now hold off overwhelming technology and numbers. There were signs of this in the Armenian-Azerbaijani clashes, but not with a superpower being repulsed on its doorstep.

That last part was surprising - it’s as if the U.S. decided to invade Mexico again but stalled out within a day’s drive of San Diego. I think you’re right about drones but part of that is the stunning failure of the Russians at electronic warfare — even more so than their air forces. Operating civilian drones was supposed to be a death sentence but they seem to be pretty routinely taking out expensive hardware with cheap drones & grenades, not to mention having very precise information about where the Russians are and what equipment they have — and having internet connectivity in much of the country has to have helped both with combat and the equally important parts of civilian morale and international support. One of the biggest missed predictions was that all of that would go down shortly after the start of the invasion.

The sour note in this is recognizing that China must be paying very close attention and making sure everyone leading the PLA knows the personal consequences if they launch an invasion of Taiwan and anything similar happens.
posted by adamsc at 11:13 AM on September 23, 2022 [12 favorites]

Also, I suspect that the largest single block of instruction in that two-week "training" is going to be The Atrocities Committed By Ukrainian Nazis Especially On Prisoners Of War So You Definitely Don't Want To Surrender And Should Just Kill Everyone You See.
posted by Etrigan at 11:13 AM on September 23, 2022 [29 favorites]

I see a lot of analysis today and yesterday (many linked above) about how the draft is a sign of weakness, and Ukraine is on the path of Victory, but I'm not relieved. In a war where both armies apparently started off with ~200k troops, an influx of 300k feels like it would significantly tip the scales, even if they were poorly trained and didn't arrive for weeks or months. More importantly, I am fearful of what this move means: Putin is willing to double down on his losses. He's going to kill as many people on both sides as he can until he can't anymore - and I shudder to think how far that can go.
posted by Popular Ethics at 11:14 AM on September 23, 2022 [20 favorites]

It does sound like someone vaguely remembered the tales of the World War II mobilisation (Svetlana Alexeievitch's The Unwomanly Face of War has a good account) and got fooled by all the Great Patriotic War pageantry into forgetting how desperate a measure it was. This is what you do when your country is attacked, not when a vanity war outside your borders is going badly.

Compare: hundreds of thousands of fighting age Ukrainian men who were outside the country on February 24 and went back to fight. To the point that Poland is suffering a distinct lack of construction workers and truckers - I've seen estimates that 70 thousand truckers alone went back. And while Ukrainian men aren't allowed to leave the country (unless they have 3 or more minor children, and other humane exceptions), I haven't seen a single report of people being pressed into service.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 11:15 AM on September 23, 2022 [31 favorites]

They're actually drafting anti-war protestors.


That's the thing with protesters:

If they fight, it serves your interests.
If they die, it serves your interests.
If they surrender and eat on Ukraine's dime, it still serves your interests, albeit not as well.
posted by ocschwar at 11:18 AM on September 23, 2022 [12 favorites]

You don't want one million draftees pointing the canon at you.

War and Peace?
Crime and Punishment?
posted by chavenet at 11:19 AM on September 23, 2022 [4 favorites]

Wagner military group, the privately owned company with close ties to the regime leaders, is recruiting from Russian prisons. They are said to have gotten over six thousand people, ignoring the reasons said people were in prison to begin with. War crimes all the way down.
posted by Jacen at 11:19 AM on September 23, 2022 [9 favorites]

The part of the enormous Russian WW2 death toll that often gets elided is that Stalin shredded the upper echelons of his own miltary before and during the war, making the genormous meat grinder of the eastern front even more efficient.

I've heard from a fairly clued-in friend that they are indeed focusing conscription on far-flung provinces with more elderly populations and more of Russia's traditionally marginalized ethnic minorities. Not much from Moscow or St Petersburg. Sometimes I don't know if this half-assed Stalin impression is better or worse than the original.
posted by cubeb at 11:20 AM on September 23, 2022 [5 favorites]

Russia has a tradition of making its soldiers disposable pawns.
posted by tommasz at 11:23 AM on September 23, 2022 [1 favorite]

Mongolia is making tacit overtures for defections from their ethnic cousins to the north.

How long before the borders in the Far East change?
posted by ocschwar at 11:27 AM on September 23, 2022 [12 favorites]

That last part was surprising - it’s as if the U.S. decided to invade Mexico again but stalled out within a day’s drive of San Diego. I think you’re right about drones but part of that is the stunning failure of the Russians at electronic warfare — even more so than their air forces.

Sounds kind of like Pershing's expedition.
posted by ocschwar at 11:29 AM on September 23, 2022 [1 favorite]

Teegeeack AV Club Secretary: Here's the equipment the herd of mobiks are receiving. It's just going to be a bloodbath going up against Ukrainians with modern weapons and high morale.

One day, while Russian artillery was pounding the city with rockets and old Soviet missiles, [Vitaliy] Kim^ posted a photo on his Telegram channel showing the component from an antiquated Krug anti-aircraft missile system, designed in 1957, which had been found by rescue workers.

Below the image, he added: “I’m no weapons expert, but I feel like they’ll start throwing balalaikas at us soon,”

That was three months ago. Back then it was still somewhat of a joke.

^ Mayor of Mykolaiv
posted by Stoneshop at 11:48 AM on September 23, 2022 [3 favorites]

Photos (and estimated arrests) at protests against mobilization in multiple Russian cities.
posted by spamandkimchi at 11:50 AM on September 23, 2022 [7 favorites]

And another report from Meduza per earlier comments on the use of ethnic minorities.

According to available data, the Republic of Buryatia has been losing soldiers at a higher rate than almost any other region of Russia since the start of the war against Ukraine. An analysis from the independent outlet Mediazona suggests that’s no coincidence: Buryatia residents, roughly 30 percent of whom are ethnic Buryats, make well below Russia’s median salary on average, which has been a reliable predictor that a given region will have high losses in this war. Vladimir Putin’s September 21 mobilization announcement looks unlikely to reverse the pattern: conscription-eligible Buryatia regions began receiving draft orders that same day. A new report from local outlet People of the Baikal describes how the men were picked up from their homes early the following morning and taken to the military commissariat’s assembly point in the regional capital, Ulan-Ude. With permission, Meduza is publishing a lightly abridged translation of the story.

...

On Shumyatsky Street (Editor’s note: in Ulan-Ude, the capital of Buryatia), an elderly woman in a woolen headscarf holds a plastic bag containing five cartons of Peter the Great cigarettes. She’s waiting for her son-in-law to be brought to the recruitment center. Last night, the 35-year-old was served a military summons in his home district of Barguzinsky, and he should be arriving in Ulan-Ude soon.

“I have three sons who are there already,” the woman says quietly. “Now they’re taking my son-in-law. They all want to fight. All of them. Men have something wrong with their heads.”

The woman’s phone rings and she answers. First she's calm, then she breaks into a shout: “Pasha, are you here? Yes, I brought the cigarettes. Tell everyone there that you have four kids, you hear me? Tell them all! Maybe they’ll release you.”

posted by spamandkimchi at 11:52 AM on September 23, 2022 [24 favorites]

There are a lot of reports that it's not that "general" in that they're absolutely concentrating on ethnic minorities /regions within Russia and being less intense with traditionally "Russian" areas and cities, because of course if Putin can mix in some ethnic cleansing with his disaster war then so much the better for him.

I'm not sure if it's ethnic cleansing, because the regions these conscripts are coming from are likely going to continue to have the same ethnic composition.

I think it's more a mix of good old-fashioned racial/ethnic supremacy -- i.e, the belief that "lesser breeds" are meant for cannon fodder -- mixed with a recognition that ethnic Russians have more somewhat more political sway, and will be more likely to be able to cause problems for the regime if they get angry about mass mobilization of their family members.
posted by Artifice_Eternity at 12:00 PM on September 23, 2022 [4 favorites]

if there is a gift that Putin gives us is it the stark awareness of how conflict really does victimize everyone else, including the rank-and-file sent to fight?

over the months I've been seeing the same-as-it-ever-was demonization of all things Russia, and when it comes down to it, exactly how Keith Talent put it: I didn't know that today would be the day I felt bad for Russian soldiers. Fuck Putin.

Not to say we can never resort to force, but maybe this century will teach us new lessons? to die for these pricks, on top of everything they have done and do
posted by elkevelvet at 12:00 PM on September 23, 2022 [7 favorites]

Oh Kadyrov, you pile of poop*:

Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov said he has exempted his region from Russian President Vladimir Putin’s military call-up following protests in his home region and his anger over a recent Russian-Ukrainian prisoner exchange.

Kadyrov said late Thursday that Chechnya had already deployed 20,000 troops since the start of the Ukraine invasion in February.

“The republic of Chechnya over-fulfilled its conscription plan by 254%… even before the announcement of a partial mobilization,” he wrote in a Telegram post.

*unfair to poop which can help with soil restoration.
posted by spamandkimchi at 12:04 PM on September 23, 2022 [14 favorites]

The head of the Russian presidential human rights council threatening immigrants.... is very on brand for Putin's regime....

The draft rules include compulsory military service within a year for Russian citizens hailing from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, [Kirill Kabanov, member of the presidential human rights council] wrote on his Telegram channel. Nationals of these countries, who often move to Russia to find work, make up a significant share of foreigners granted Russian passports.

“Refusal to perform military service should result in the deprivation of Russian citizenship not only for the person subject to military service, but also for members of his family,” Kabanov said. He said denaturalization “would be an adequate response to an official ban” on taking part in hostilities on foreign soil by the [former Soviet] Central Asian countries.

posted by spamandkimchi at 12:09 PM on September 23, 2022 [5 favorites]

In Photos: Kharkiv Region Returns to Normalcy After Russian Occupation

Lidya Kandaurov, 58, shows her national flag that she hid during the Russian occupation that now bears the signatures of Ukrainian soldiers who liberated the village of Troitske.

The end of my blockquote spree I promise!!
posted by spamandkimchi at 12:11 PM on September 23, 2022 [20 favorites]

How long before the borders in the Far East change?

Zolkin in his videos has made jokes, speaking Japanese to camera as more and more Kuril Island garrison folk find themselves in his PoW interviews. "Now you only need one squad, there are no more forces on such-and-such island, come on and reclaim your territory Japan!" What happens when the entire Eastern portion of the armed forces have been wiped out in Ukraine?

Putin is the biggest enemy Russia has had since... I don't even know when. This is an historic clusterfuck for Russia and will get much worse now.
posted by Meatbomb at 12:17 PM on September 23, 2022 [14 favorites]

What the West Should Do About Putin’s Increasingly Dangerous Desperation
Fred Kaplan -- Slate
Vladimir Putin is clearly desperate. The question is whether this is good news or bad news. Another way of putting the question is whether it warrants a U.S. policy of exuberance or caution. The answer, in each case, is probably “a bit of both.” But the proper mix—how much exuberance, how much caution—is hard to calibrate.


“Not a bluff:” Losing ground in Ukraine, Putin raises nuclear threats
François Diaz-Maurin -- Bulletin of the Atomic Scientist
Accusing the United States and its allies of engaging in “nuclear blackmail,” Putin noted darkly that “I want to remind you that our country has different types of weapons as well, and some of them are more modern than the weapons NATO countries have.”

~~~~~

I read Fred Kaplan. I trust him; he's non-partisan, he's his own man, he knows all the players and all of the games they play and he lays it out straight. After reading him last night. I got to chasing down the story, link follows link, led me to Bulletin Of The Atomic Scientist. Sober analysis.

Putin is painted into a corner. A dangerous man anywhere, trapped in a corner anything possible. He's a knife fighter, a conniving liar, every bit as dangerous as Cheney or Rumsfeld.

Look at it from his side -- his armies are garbage but no way is Ukraine in the fight without all the gear they got from us. And all the finger pointing, all the holier than thou jive from the US and all the rest who are falling into line behind us -- we've not been careful. At all. He doesn't deserve our love but he damn sure will demand our respect.
posted by dancestoblue at 12:28 PM on September 23, 2022 [8 favorites]

adamsc: and having internet connectivity in much of the country has to have helped both with combat and the equally important parts of civilian morale and international support. One of the biggest missed predictions was that all of that would go down shortly after the start of the invasion.

- Russia built its newest generation of military comms around 4G. Taking down mobile networks? Bullet, meet foot. Which means they would have needed other measures, but didn't, to prevent people taking video of troops and materiel, and posting that to sites everyone (obviously including Ukraine military) can read.
- The Internet (right from its start as Arpanet) was built to be resilient against a lot of mishap, including war. It has shown to be so.
posted by Stoneshop at 12:29 PM on September 23, 2022 [6 favorites]

If that's really the state in which these troops are going to be deployed, they're more human shields meant to make imposition of defeat on unacceptable terms unpalatable to Ukraine's supporters, than a force with any offensive potential.
posted by snuffleupagus at 12:29 PM on September 23, 2022 [1 favorite]

In three months, they will be frozen human shields. I can't imagine that Russia is going to give them proper equipment to survive the winter.
posted by meowzilla at 12:38 PM on September 23, 2022 [3 favorites]

we've not been careful

Gotta disagree here, the West has been exceedingly careful. We didn't get involved directly, we didn't send our own plausibly-deniable 'little green men' in like Putin's done, we didn't give Ukraine the fighter jets or long range rockets they've been asking for, we didn't allow Ukraine to strike inside Russia with anything we provided. We've publicly announced pretty much every piece of equipment we've sent. We've been careful to a fault.
posted by echo target at 12:48 PM on September 23, 2022 [75 favorites]

Look at it from his side -- his armies are garbage but no way is Ukraine in the fight without all the gear they got from us. And all the finger pointing, all the holier than thou jive from the US and all the rest who are falling into line behind us -- we've not been careful. At all. He doesn't deserve our love but he damn sure will demand our respect.

How about you look at it from Ukraine's side? Putin deserves no respect.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 12:51 PM on September 23, 2022 [42 favorites]

Just so we have some numbers to compare to Russia's +300,000, the current size of the Ukrainian army is approx. 700,000, of whom 400,000 are on the front line and the rest in support or rotation.

If nothing else, the fact that Ukraine has sufficient numbers to actually rotate units off the line for proper rest and regeneration, is a huge signal that they're doing well. By comparison, Russia is stop-lossing all their troops on the line, with no relief, and throwing 300,000 basically untrained civilians into the mix, without pursuing proper training or force regeneration measures.

I looked up what happened during the Vietnam War in the U.S. A draftee was given a week of induction, 8 weeks of basic, 8-9 weeks of advanced training, and then final prep before they ever saw action (and even then, they were considered a liability in their first month). So six months was the practical timespan the U.S. established for generating new forces. Remember that when you hear "two weeks".
posted by fatbird at 12:59 PM on September 23, 2022 [38 favorites]

And most of the officers and NCOs that Russia had to lead the training have been sent to the front and possibly (probably) KIA.
posted by 1970s Antihero at 1:10 PM on September 23, 2022 [3 favorites]

And Russia had a pretty terrible NCO corps to begin with.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 1:11 PM on September 23, 2022 [6 favorites]

In three months, they will be frozen human shields. I can't imagine that Russia is going to give them proper equipment to survive the winter.

And no fires for warmth or cooking, because you are being hunted by drones with thermal cameras.

Tens of thousands of Russians are going to die in the dark, numb with cold.
posted by ryanrs at 1:12 PM on September 23, 2022 [9 favorites]

I think the articles dancestoblue linked to are sober, worthwhile reading.

IANAF, but if there is a fire in my neighborhood, I better respect the fire and not delude myself about what is is capable of or be overconfident about my ability to control it. That's part of making good decisions that will be most effective in eventually stamping out the fire. I think this is the kind of "respect" dancestoblue advocates.
posted by brambleboy at 1:14 PM on September 23, 2022 [4 favorites]

I can't help but wonder if sending hundreds of thousands of poorly-equipped, barely-trained conscripts into the theater of war might be presenting Ukraine with an interesting psyops opportunity. It seems that a very large fraction -- maybe a majority? maybe even an overwhelming majority? -- of these conscripts are deeply unwilling and ripe for subversion. Whether it's dropping classic "surrender and you won't be harmed" leaflets, circulating old the "how to sabotage" CIA manual or something spicier, say, perhaps infiltrating (or even creating) Telegram groups for conscripts in order to encourage and normalize fragging, I would estimate that there's a lot of things that can be done to exploit the absolutely abysmal morale we expect these conscripts to have.
posted by mhum at 1:15 PM on September 23, 2022 [7 favorites]

I'm getting an awful Stalin in WWII vibe from Putin. Stalin basically threw humans as meat into his campaign.

One big, big difference though. For better or for worse, Stalin could honestly pitch the war against Germany as an existential crisis for the Soviet Union: Germany was the aggressor, and they had taken territory in the USSR when the war was at its worst point and they were sending raw recruits out to die. Underequipped and undertrained as the troops were, there was still more than a little morale boost in telling them that what they were doing was important and being believed.

It doesn't seem like any of the troops being sent to Ukraine without adequate equipment or training believe that, at all. To the extent the war in Ukraine has become an existential crisis for Russia/the Putin regime, it's a crisis entirely of their own making. Certainly Ukraine has almost no interest in any Russian-claimed territory beyond Donbas, Luhansk, and Crimea (maybe a little interest in other border regions, but not a whole lot). Russia may tell its soldiers that what they're doing is necessary and right, but they can't make a very good argument for it.
posted by jackbishop at 1:22 PM on September 23, 2022 [15 favorites]

1970s Antihero: And most of the officers and NCOs that Russia had to lead the training have been sent to the front and possibly (probably) KIA.

In the Russian army training is done by the unit new recruits are assigned to.

It so happens that these units are kind of busy with rather more pressing matters, and training fresh 'reinforcements' is probably somewhat lower on the list than just staying alive. Let alone properly training them.
posted by Stoneshop at 1:39 PM on September 23, 2022 [1 favorite]

how could these soldiers could just surrender to Ukrainian troops the minute they're across the borders?

Ukraine has set up a 24-hour hotline for Russian soldiers that wish to surrender. They will probably drop this from aircraft over combat area to spread the message. Knowing how technically savvy the UA is, it'll be like ordering an Uber.

The history of passierschein or "safe conduct" papers during WWII is pretty fascinating.
posted by JoeZydeco at 1:43 PM on September 23, 2022 [21 favorites]

An extra zero but this million-man conscription is reminding me of McNamara's Project 100,000 from the Vietnam War.
posted by Rash at 1:46 PM on September 23, 2022 [3 favorites]

It doesn’t need to be meat for the grinder. RF needs a huge number of bodies to drive trucks, load and unload supplies, patrol rear areas etc. All these men have done conscription service and know the basics. Even a modest increase could allow them to rotate out some second tier front line units. They could abandon western Kherson and dramatically reduce the surface area they are defending. Once the winter comes, they have time to train up these units.
posted by a robot made out of meat at 3:28 PM on September 23, 2022 [2 favorites]

I'm pretty sure that Putin's new strategy here is to get these fake referendums passed, declare these former People's Republics as part of Russia, flood the zone with green recruits, and then dare Ukraine to attack Motherland Russia and probably use the winter to train and dig further in.

I don't know what Russia's response is if Ukraine attacks any of these falsely annexed regions. But that seems to be the planning from RF at the moment, from what I can see.
posted by hippybear at 3:34 PM on September 23, 2022 [5 favorites]

I keep flipping between two film loops in my mind's eye:

1. in Enemy at the Gates with Jude Law etc about the Stalingrad conflict, there's an early scene where raw recruits are presented with not-enough-rifles and an NCO is standing there screaming at them to pair up, and take one gun, and they are directed that the man with the gun shoots until he is killed, and then the other man picks up the gun and shoots (presumably until he, too, is killed.) I always found this very chilling, these clinical instructions to just step into the maw of it.

2. there's a scene in the final episode of The World at War where Goebbels is giving a speech to a courtyard full of aging civilians and boys, and when he is done this huge crowd turns and marches off towards the front carrying literal pitchforks and truncheons.
posted by hearthpig at 3:40 PM on September 23, 2022 [2 favorites]

It doesn’t need to be meat for the grinder. RF needs a huge number of bodies to drive trucks, load and unload supplies, patrol rear areas etc.

Truck driving and supply depot jobs have turned out to be particularly dangerous in this war, and I would expect that to continue. So it may not be as bad for them as it would if they were thrown directly on the front line, but I still wouldn't want to be in their shoes.
posted by Dip Flash at 3:45 PM on September 23, 2022 [5 favorites]

Tens of thousands of Russians are going to die in the dark, numb with cold.

Quite possibly... keeping in mind that many of these "Russians" aren't ethnically Russian at all.
posted by Artifice_Eternity at 4:24 PM on September 23, 2022 [5 favorites]

Re: “alco-battalions”:

BACHO: Offers a bottle of vodka Go ahead, it’s free.

PAVEL: It’s a little early.

BACHO: What unit were you in?

PAVEL: I was in the motor pool in Kiyev, but…

BACHO: No, not this bullshit. In Afghanistan.

PAVEL: I wasn’t in Afghanistan. I’m not in the military.

BACHO: Turns to Guro They’re running out of men.
—
Chernobyl, episode 4; “The Happiness of All Mankind”

posted by Pirate-Bartender-Zombie-Monkey at 4:27 PM on September 23, 2022 [13 favorites]

there's a scene in the final episode of The World at War where Goebbels is giving a speech to a courtyard full of aging civilians and boys, and when he is done this huge crowd turns and marches off towards the front carrying literal pitchforks and truncheons.

I hadn't previously known of "The World at War", but I see it's a documentary series. Is this scene a reenactment of a known event? Or a "might have happened" kind of thing?

Or is it actual documentary footage of a known event? I'm asking because it seems weird to me that the Nazis would have made it. I mean, not filming the speech from Goebbels, that doesn't seem weird; rather, what seems weird is filming the speech without making a strong, conscious effort not to show "These are kids and old men with pitchforks and truncheons".
posted by Flunkie at 4:31 PM on September 23, 2022

The World at War consists almost entirely of two things: documentary footage from the war itself and late-60s/early-70s interviews with its combatants and victims. I'm not about to go watch "Remember" again but it would utterly shock me if it were anything but actual footage of the actual event.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 4:45 PM on September 23, 2022 [9 favorites]

→ Oh Kadyrov, you pile of poop

If I were Kadyrov, I'd keep a respectful distance from any windows right now
posted by scruss at 4:45 PM on September 23, 2022 [1 favorite]

Maybe just remain on ground level at all times.
posted by hippybear at 4:47 PM on September 23, 2022 [2 favorites]

Depressing prediction: after a few days of turmoil and protest, things will die down in Russia. The flow of men leaving will stop. People will be mobilized and sent to the front, just as underprepared as those already there. They won’t revolt en masse.

A few will surrender. We’ll get very excited and say that heralds the downfall of the Russian state. But the rest will do what they’re told.

We’re making a *lot* of excited guesses about regime stability and consequences based on a wave of social media virality created mostly by those in the West.

This is the MO of Putin’s state: clumsy, messy, controversial, but somehow always bungles through problems thanks to its media networks and enthusiastic supporters.

If change comes, it’s certainly not coming from below. Those boys being herded onto planes and buses don’t look desperate to seize any chance to make their escape.

Ian Garner
posted by Pirate-Bartender-Zombie-Monkey at 4:54 PM on September 23, 2022 [10 favorites]

in re world at war reference above: the goebbels thing is film footage. as GCU says, the whole series [which, if you haven't seen it and are interested in WW II history, it's SUBLIME] is footage and interviews, no reenactments. I am certain it was staged to look like a meaningful propaganda sally (after all, Goebbels) but its definite last-ditch time. I have not been able to find it as a clip.
posted by hearthpig at 5:02 PM on September 23, 2022 [3 favorites]

it would utterly shock me if it were anything but actual footage of the actual event.

Wow! Then I wonder whether it was a subversive move by the camerman and/or editors etc., or just... dumb.

Or maybe I'm just seriously overestimating how shocking it would have been for the brainwashed to see something like that. I guess there's a chance the makers might have thought it would be good (in terms of propagandizing the German population) in a "We will fight to the last, even if all we have is pitchforks" sense? And I suppose even a chance that it was good in that sense?
posted by Flunkie at 5:04 PM on September 23, 2022 [1 favorite]

The real question for me is what they think they will even be able to do with these conscripts?
posted by corb at 5:05 PM on September 23, 2022 [5 favorites]

The real question for me is what they think they will even be able to do with these conscripts?

"We're losing money on every sale, but we'll make it up with volume!"
posted by Flunkie at 5:07 PM on September 23, 2022 [33 favorites]

It wouldn't be in 'remember' I don't recall it and searched, nothing, so.


"Why, then, may growing wage arrears still signal danger for the Kremlin? We’re likely just seeing the beginning of a wave of wage arrears. In most industries, employers have been able to rely on reserves and temporary measures such as furloughing and reduced wages so far, in a hope that the circumstances will improve in the near future.... But he European gas market is slipping away from Gazprom; Russian metallurgy faces a collapse in international demand, and export-oriented firms in general are losing markets. In the face of a ballooning deficit over the summer months, the government is considering cutting budgetary expenses by 10 percent; pensions, public sector wages and military expenses are untouched, thus grand development projects will likely suffer, exacerbating the negative feedback loop in the economy"
posted by clavdivs at 5:17 PM on September 23, 2022 [5 favorites]

The real question for me is what they think they will even be able to do with these conscripts?

Re-enact the opening scene of Enemy at the Gates
posted by Pirate-Bartender-Zombie-Monkey at 5:31 PM on September 23, 2022 [2 favorites]

Yeah, the Nazis saw no problem in sending their own citizens to die terribly in defense of their insanity. The Volkssturm rally movie was probably presented as a glorious feat of valor and duty.
posted by Jacen at 5:35 PM on September 23, 2022

If change comes, it’s certainly not coming from below. Those boys being herded onto planes and buses don’t look desperate to seize any chance to make their escape.

They also won't be trained or armed. Might even have to walk. Russia is spent.

This is an international bluff and an internal crackdown.
posted by Max Power at 5:42 PM on September 23, 2022 [1 favorite]

Re: poorly equipped troops.

I have an online friend who works at a think tank related to military conflict. His specialty being Russian arms in the Middle East. Anyways, he points out that the Russians have more than enough guns, ammo and kit to outfit all these troops. What they lack are the BMP's and BMT's (armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles) to allow them to actually be effective.
posted by nestor_makhno at 5:46 PM on September 23, 2022 [10 favorites]

Forgot to add, as a former resident of Georgia, country not the state, it's been interesting watching social media from there. Georgians are increasingly pissed at the influx of Russians who want to hide out there. 20% of Georgia is occupied by Russia. These folks are coming in and then insisting on speaking Russian and doing other shit that paisses off the Georgians. Saw a Telegram post from a Russian complaining that they were turned away from the border for having a Z on their car. No shit Sherlock.
posted by nestor_makhno at 5:52 PM on September 23, 2022 [43 favorites]

the Russians have more than enough guns, ammo and kit to outfit all these troops

Which is more stupefying that LPR/DPR conscripts are given Mosin–Nagants when the Russians probably have millions of AKs in the warehouses.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 6:22 PM on September 23, 2022 [4 favorites]

mhum They currently distribute little cards with a QR code for a signal channel, I believe.
posted by pompomtom at 6:28 PM on September 23, 2022 [1 favorite]

Most LPR/DPR conscripts have been given AKM's in 7.62. The poor bastards with Mosins are a small minority.

Fun fact, I use to have Mosin (sold to pay rent unfortunately) that had sights marked not in meters but in arshins, the old Imperial measurement. Those poor bastards have essentially a 130 year old design that they are using to fight an army with drones and satellite imagery.
posted by nestor_makhno at 6:29 PM on September 23, 2022 [9 favorites]

Speaking of vintage weapons and Makhno, it's interesting to see the current Makhnovist brigade reinventing the tachanka as well as digging out their old Maxims.

Another Maxim in the possession of some happy anarchists.
posted by Buntix at 6:43 PM on September 23, 2022 [4 favorites]

I have an online friend who works at a think tank related to military conflict. His specialty being Russian arms in the Middle East. Anyways, he points out that the Russians have more than enough guns, ammo and kit to outfit all these troops.

If only they could get them to Russia.
posted by Max Power at 6:48 PM on September 23, 2022 [2 favorites]

Wow! Then I wonder whether it was a subversive move by the camerman and/or editors etc., or just... dumb.

Or maybe I'm just seriously overestimating how shocking it would have been for the brainwashed to see something like that. I guess there's a chance the makers might have thought it would be good (in terms of propagandizing the German population) in a "We will fight to the last, even if all we have is pitchforks" sense? And I suppose even a chance that it was good in that sense?

posted by Flunkie

The World at War used footage they got from archives everywhere, and I believe quite a lot of it was material that was not passed by the censor. Plenty of film was shot during that war but never distributed.

It remains one of the absolute best depictions of that war because it is all real footage and real participants talking about things they still remembered vividly. Following this war using this series of threads on MetaFilter is giving me flashbacks of watching The World at War as a child; the series was a chronological history which made it possible to feel like it was unfolding with every week's new episode. I also feel in that watching the series in some way has gave me the fortitude to follow this one - nothing, not the pointlessness, the bickering, the nobility, the cruelty, the role of luck, the role of changing technology, the incompetence, the maneuvering, the posturing - none of it is unfamiliar. Yes, this is war... This is like that. It's how it works and it is unbelievably sad.
posted by Jane the Brown at 6:54 PM on September 23, 2022 [36 favorites]

the Russians have more than enough guns, ammo and kit to outfit all these troops

Which is more stupefying that LPR/DPR conscripts are given Mosin–Nagants when the Russians probably have millions of AKs in the warehouses.

If you were an officer in the Russian Army, and you were given command of a hundred of these "recruits", would you want them to have something specifically designed to turn any schmuck into a mass murderer?
posted by Etrigan at 7:01 PM on September 23, 2022 [6 favorites]

Wow! Then I wonder whether it was a subversive move by the camerman and/or editors etc., or just... dumb.

Following Jane the Brown, it might also have just been the best they could do under the circumstances.

Or maybe I'm just seriously overestimating how shocking it would have been for the brainwashed to see something like that

By May of 1945 they'd already seen their ally fall, their conquests taken back, their armies trudge home in defeat, their cities burned, their livelihoods vanished, their hunger growing, their sons in the military blown to bits, their civilian friends and families killed a hundred thousand at a time, themselves or women they loved routinely raped, and much worse.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 7:28 PM on September 23, 2022 [4 favorites]

the Russians have more than enough guns, ammo and kit to outfit all these troops

Which is more stupefying that LPR/DPR conscripts are given Mosin–Nagants when the Russians probably have millions of AKs in the warehouses.

If you were an officer in the Russian Army, and you were given command of a hundred of these "recruits", would you want them to have something specifically designed to turn any schmuck into a mass murderer?

They are depleting Soviet era stocks.

Millions of AKs have been sold, not stored.

Even the U.S. runs low on ammo during party changes.
posted by Max Power at 7:39 PM on September 23, 2022 [3 favorites]

Ukrainians are understandably unsympathetic to Russians trying to stampede out of there, but this video by Russian YouTubers who are cooling their heels in Tbilisi is worth a watch. One of them fled Russia within two days of the war starting.
posted by ocschwar at 8:11 PM on September 23, 2022 [8 favorites]

the Russians have more than enough guns, ammo and kit to outfit all these troops

Do they? Following some various Twitter accounts, it seems like everything related to the Russian logistics indicates that nothing has been maintained. Trucks have had tires blowing out due to rot. Artillery barrels are blowing out at a fraction of their life expectancy. Rations that have been expired for years. Same for the artillery rounds.

I think its fair to question everything in terms of that military intelligence. Are the guns still functional? Or have they been sold off by corrupt military officials? Were they stored properly, or were they left to rust? Same goes for the ammo and gear.
posted by Mister Fabulous at 8:50 PM on September 23, 2022 [16 favorites]

The last bullet points was in reference to the sham referendums being performed in the occupied parts of Ukraine right now.

More horendous than a sham. Timothy Snyder spells it out in a thread:

Russia is undertaking a media exercise regarding Russian-occupied Ukraine, which its propagandists call "referendums" on annexation by Russia. People elsewhere are struggling to characterize this action. I am going to propose "obscenity" and "element of war crime." ...
posted by Kabanos at 8:50 PM on September 23, 2022 [8 favorites]

How could these soldiers could just surrender to Ukrainian troops the minute they're across the borders?

For information on how to surrender to become a prisoner of war, Russian servicemen or their relatives should call the 24-hour numbers: [phone] and [phone].
posted by Kabanos at 9:14 PM on September 23, 2022 [8 favorites]

Do they? Following some various Twitter accounts, it seems like everything related to the Russian logistics indicates that nothing has been maintained. Trucks have had tires blowing out due to rot. Artillery barrels are blowing out at a fraction of their life expectancy. Rations that have been expired for years. Same for the artillery rounds.

I think its fair to question everything in terms of that military intelligence. Are the guns still functional? Or have they been sold off by corrupt military officials? Were they stored properly, or were they left to rust? Same goes for the ammo and gear.

A lot of that Twitter buzz is from Trent Telenko (sp?). People who do that assessment for a living consider him a moron.

The soviets are really good at preserving small arms. The AKM's will work.
posted by nestor_makhno at 9:42 PM on September 23, 2022 [1 favorite]

But, "But Bruce Bennett, a senior security expert at the California-based Rand Corporation, said most of the artillery rounds to be sent to Russia are likely to be ammunition for small arms, such as AK-47 rifles or machine guns."

'HET!'
posted by clavdivs at 9:57 PM on September 23, 2022

The soviets are really good at preserving small arms. The AKM's will work.

I don't know how good anybody is at preserving small arms, but I do know that the Russians are not the Soviets. I don't mean this as some nitpicky gotcha; rather, it seems that in recent months we've seen a whole lot of evidence that the Russians are pretty awful at preserving fill-in-the-blank. Things can be sold or stripped for parts to sell by people who have no right to do so, and things can be left to rot because the money intended to maintain them was instead intercepted and taken by people who have no right to do so.
posted by Flunkie at 10:00 PM on September 23, 2022 [13 favorites]

AK-47s are kind of famous as the guns you can drop in a swamp for six months and they'll just work. The weak part are e.g. the Buryat students (exempt from conscription in peacetime) who have fired a gun maybe a week ago for the first time in their lives and are still stunned by the kick and the sound. They're not going to be useful soldiers OR truck drivers, both of these are skilled jobs. Maybe the pass-the-crate line in the ammunition depot, but considering I saw rumours of people with scoliosis being drafted, maybe not even that.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 10:11 PM on September 23, 2022 [5 favorites]

Well, do the Mosin-Nagants work?
posted by ryanrs at 10:11 PM on September 23, 2022 [2 favorites]

Given the quality of their supply depots, I'm not sure about the small arms preservation. I mean, I know the AK47 is meant to be treated like trash and still work, but that would be the only thing saving them from what we've literally seen with our eyes in their bases.

Aren't the Russians supposed to be using AK74s now though, and don't they hate the mud?
posted by pan at 10:12 PM on September 23, 2022 [2 favorites]

and don't they hate the mud?

The AKs or the Russians.
posted by clavdivs at 10:23 PM on September 23, 2022 [5 favorites]

Russia’s problem hasn’t been a shortage guns and ammunition as much it has been the dreadful state of their logistics. Things we take for granted in the west like cargo containers, palates and the forklifts that move them, computerized inventory management — the Russian army has almost none of that. You see Russians literally loading and unloading wooden crates into old fashioned box cars by hand. Then they pile it all up at a rail terminal and wait to hand load it onto ancient trucks, to get it to some forward munitions depot and then onto the front. This makes re-supply slow and inefficient and all these choke points are easy targets for a HIMARS or suicide drone attack. The other problem in their logistics is while they’ve probably got lots of AKs and bullets for them; they seem to be short of things like field rations, backpacks, combat boots, medical kits and all the other stuff that people need for basic survival.
posted by interogative mood at 10:30 PM on September 23, 2022 [13 favorites]

A few hundred thousand rifles is a drop in the bucket. In a pinch you could round up far more than that from people who have them sitting in their closet. Per Wikipedia, there are something like 100 million Kalashnikovs that have been produced worldwide. There is no shortage of working guns to be had. (Edible, non-expired rations, on the other hand, seem to have been a different story.)
posted by Dip Flash at 10:32 PM on September 23, 2022 [4 favorites]

The AK-74 is old as the hills now as well, the new hotness is the AK-12. But they have not procured them in numbers sufficient to arm the whole of the Army, so there's a lot of AK-74s kicking about still.

But I think that is not of great importance. What's more important, and very telling, is how few of the Russian rifles that have optical sights. Optical sights of different types have been adopted by every major army the last 25 years or so. But it seems like the Russians have not managed to get them into service in any great numbers. Optical sights make rifles much easier to shoot, especially in fluid or low-light situations. The alternative is iron sights, which is usually a notch on the rear sight that has to be aligned by the shooter with a post on the front sights. Works, but requires a lot more training to use efficiently.

I expect optical sights to have been ordered by their MoD, but by and large never made it out to the troops, except for VDV and Spetznaz.
posted by Harald74 at 10:35 PM on September 23, 2022 [5 favorites]

cargo containers, palates and the forklifts that move them, computerized inventory management

Wait a minute. Could it be that the Russian military has resisted logistics modernization just so they could keep stealing shit?

lmao
posted by ryanrs at 10:41 PM on September 23, 2022 [18 favorites]

Actually not unthinkable...
posted by Harald74 at 10:41 PM on September 23, 2022 [11 favorites]

Are people sure they are "raw recruits", I kind of got the impression that some (many? most?) were men who had done mandatory army training in their late teens/early 20s - probably no combat experience but some training, and know which end of a gun to hold
posted by mbo at 10:43 PM on September 23, 2022 [1 favorite]

How many trucks do they even have left? Oryx tracks well over a thousand captured or destroyed. The number of vehicles in a BTG support group is typically 22, if we belive the OOBs that are kicking around the net. So Oryx' 1600 losses divided by 22 is 72 BTGs worth of missing transport capacity, which was at best marginal when they invaded.
posted by Harald74 at 10:44 PM on September 23, 2022 [4 favorites]

The ISW assessment the other day said there's a big difference between the announced mobilization (300,000, combat experience only, no students, etc.) and what's actually happening. In reality they're just grabbing people-- ethinic minorities, prisoners, protesters, and any random person who looks at them wrong.
posted by ctmf at 10:46 PM on September 23, 2022 [3 favorites]

Are people sure they are "raw recruits"

It's probably too early to be sure of anything. The fog of war and all that. We're at best speculating.
posted by Harald74 at 10:46 PM on September 23, 2022 [1 favorite]

We do know there's a lot of video of them rounding up all the remaining men regardless of age in villages out east in Siberia and shipping them west.

So experience variable, we could say.
posted by pan at 11:08 PM on September 23, 2022 [2 favorites]

It isn’t just optical sights its the fact that most of their guns don’t have the modern rail system that is standard on almost every modern riffle these days. They adopted an accessory rail system for the AK-12 (their newest gun) but they only fitted it with iron sights. Not that this matters their machining standards are terrible and steel is low quality so their riffles are notoriously inaccurate. The upside to the terrible tolerances and low accuracy is that you can bury an AK in mud and give it a quick wash and it will fire about as badly as it did previously.
posted by interogative mood at 11:21 PM on September 23, 2022 [5 favorites]

Veteran Russian soldiers are giving advice to the newbies on Telegram. Pretty solid advice, as far as I can tell as a veteran of a totally different army, except for the one about punching people in the face. However, I can't imagine anyone mastering soldiering in two weeks...

The "punch in the face" advice made me think of the ASR (Acute Stress Reaction) drill of my "own" army, here helpfully put on YouTube by the Norwegian Armed Forces with English subtitles. Can also be applied in high-stress civilian settings. Anyway, better than a punch in the face...
posted by Harald74 at 11:54 PM on September 23, 2022 [17 favorites]

Oy, the comments in that "advice to newbies" Twitter post. Not all of them, of course, but a lot of them seem like they're basically blaming the author of the advice for the fact that the advice is not as good as real, prolonged training.

It's not supposed to be as good as real, prolonged training. It's supposed to be better to have this plus the crappy, fleeting training that the author knows the newbies are going to get than to have the crappy, fleeting training alone.
posted by Flunkie at 12:28 AM on September 24, 2022 [1 favorite]

Another English-language Russian YouTuber who has fled the country is Natasha of Natasha's Adventures, a slice-of-life channel from the Russian Far East that has occasionally popped up in my feed. She's in Georgia now as well.
posted by Harald74 at 12:34 AM on September 24, 2022 [6 favorites]

What's more important, and very telling, is how few of the Russian rifles that have optical sights. Optical sights of different types have been adopted by every major army the last 25 years or so. But it seems like the Russians have not managed to get them into service in any great numbers.

And it's not like optics are even hard/restricted tech in 2022. Just buy the Chinese optics that are sold to the American civilian market. Chinese optics have gotten really good in the last 5-10 years.

But I suppose rifle scopes are easy to sell on the black market, so their soldiers will never have them.
posted by ryanrs at 1:28 AM on September 24, 2022

AK-47s are kind of famous as the guns you can drop in a swamp for six months and they'll just work.

Guessing this one's had closer on 6 to 60 years in the swamp...

#Primorye: #Mobilized conscripts report they were handed half-rotten Kalashnikov assault rifles. They are, to put it mildly, shocked.

(video on tweet).

Guess if nothing else firing it would give them a more convincing ticket home than having to shoot themself in the foot.
posted by Buntix at 2:29 AM on September 24, 2022 [2 favorites]

I heard somewhere that if you throw an AK47 in a swamp they're just as likely to malfunction as any other gun with dirt in the mechanism. I'm not an expert in any way but this sounded very reasonable to me.
posted by Kosmob0t at 2:54 AM on September 24, 2022 [3 favorites]

nestor_makhno: A lot of that Twitter buzz is from Trent Telenko (sp?). People who do that assessment for a living consider him a moron.

*Shrug*. There is sufficient video evidence of vehicles being stranded or still crawling along with no other damage than shredded, busted tyres. So it's clear those haven't been properly kept, rotated and replaced according to their 'best before' dates.

Or, as another example, barrels that have gone 'peeled banana' from overuse. There's an image of a 30mm autocannon barrel fresh out of manufacturing with the bore visibly off-center, measurements showing wall thickness one side of 8mm, 11mm the other. That one's going to work really well for a loooong time.

And anyone with just a minimum of insight in logistics can figure that with X number of trucks able to do Y roundtrips depot-to-front per day, then having to do double the distance you either need 2X trucks or you get 0.5Y roundtrips per day. Keeping your depots closer to the front than HIMARS range will be the source of large fireworks.

The soviets are really good at preserving small arms. The AKM's will work.

*Shrug* again. AKMs against drone-supported long-range artillery? Or even against an average armoured fighting vehicle with a HMG on top? Better give those new recruits a non-working AKM, they'd be less likely to hurt themselves, figure out that they might as well tie a white hankie to it and walk out on the mess.
posted by Stoneshop at 3:08 AM on September 24, 2022 [7 favorites]

That rusty thing is more likely to give you tetanus than give you a bullet wound...
posted by Harald74 at 3:11 AM on September 24, 2022 [2 favorites]

Is there any reasonably-knowledgeable thought on how China is viewing Putin’s war? In the back of my head, and given China’s recent military “exercises”, I can’t help but think they have some hope that the war in Ukraine will distract/occupy the US enough, and deplete the US weapon stockpile enough, to make invading and securing Taiwan doable.
posted by Thorzdad at 4:24 AM on September 24, 2022 [5 favorites]

And while Ukrainian men aren't allowed to leave the country (unless they have 3 or more minor children, and other humane exceptions), I haven't seen a single report of people being pressed into service.

There were reports a few months ago of deceptive, incorrect or forced recruitment of Ukrainian men, though certainly nothing on the scale of what we're now seeing in Russia.

In Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city by population, a channel on the messaging app Telegram provides anonymous, crowdsourced, real-time information on the locations of recruiters for people trying to steer clear of them. It has more than 67,000 subscribers.

“Our goal is to prevent the inappropriate issuance of summonses,” reads the channel description.
posted by mediareport at 5:30 AM on September 24, 2022 [1 favorite]

Dr. Dave Johnson’s warning on brute force in Ukraine: “This is What the Russians Do”, Charlie Dunlap, Lawfire, 3 May 2022:

…It has been over 70 years since World War II and the West has forgotten what a high-intensity, large-scale war involves. The Russians have not. In wars for survival—as Putin is framing the war in Ukraine—there are few niceties, what we now view as humanitarian constraints.
…
The Russians are ruthless in their pursuit of their objectives and we should expect that from them. Scolding them about “alleged” war crimes and threatening them with post-war legal jeopardy is pointless. I imagine Putin cannot help but be amused at this naiveté.

Russian armies have always operated this way, but somehow they managed to win ugly against almost all comers. It is not pretty to watch, but they generally prevail in what they set out to do.

Unfortunately, I deeply fear that Russian reliance on brute force and the indiscriminate use of fire power will only get worse in Eastern Ukraine as the war continues. Ukraine’s patrons have to understand these realities to understand what support the Ukrainians will require to enable them to persist in what is shaping up to be a grinding war of attrition….

Historically, how much is Russia willing to spend to win? Perhaps more, much more than anyone else. Although it’s on a far larger scale, Neil Halloran’s animated graph The Fallen of World War II gives us some idea (Russian stats start about 4:20 into the YT video).
posted by cenoxo at 5:39 AM on September 24, 2022 [5 favorites]

Ukraine Situation Report: Russia’s Partial Mobilization, Nuclear Threats -- Putin’s long-awaited call to mobilize at least a portion of the Russian population was accompanied by nuclear threats toward the West., Thomas Newdick, The War Zone, Sep 21, 2022.

...Since its all-out invasion of Ukraine began on February 24, Russia has officially lost 5,937 personnel in a campaign that it has consistently described as a “special military operation.” The actual total is thought to be much higher, with the Ukrainian Armed Forces saying that Russian and pro-Russian forces have sustained more than 55,000 casualties. As of mid-August, U.S. officials estimated that around 20,000 Russian troops had been killed, from a total of between 70,000 and 80,000 casualties....

More in the article.
posted by cenoxo at 6:00 AM on September 24, 2022 [1 favorite]

The article in Lawfire is from May and it correctly predicted the Russia summer war plan after their retreat from the areas in the north around Kyiv. It had some initial success in Donbas in June and July but by the end of July they had only gained a few hundred square kilometers at the cost of wearing out a lot of their guns and using up much of their ammunition. By mid July they hit a culmination point and they were unable to regain the initiative.

I suspect Russias next plan is going to be to try to hold on for the winter. There are only a few weeks left before the second mud season of the year returns. There will be some opportunities for advances after the ground freezes in Nov/December and into early February; but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Russia spend until April next year digging in and holding on with the idea that they will try again next summer.
posted by interogative mood at 6:51 AM on September 24, 2022 [4 favorites]

Russia’s Massive 100 Million-Ton Wheat Crop Piles Up at Home
• SovEcon says storage has become an issue for some farmers
• Record harvest so far is not converting into record exports
Aine Quinn, Bloomberg Markets, September 23, 2022.
posted by cenoxo at 6:54 AM on September 24, 2022 [4 favorites]

It has been over 70 years since World War II and the West has forgotten what a high-intensity, large-scale war involves. The Russians have not. In wars for survival

I mean, this is the the key question of the war, right? Will the Russian people consider this a war of survival (WW2) or a war of folly (Afghanistan)? If it's the former, there are no limits to this conflict. If the latter, perhaps we could see a negotiated peace or Russian regime change.
posted by gwint at 6:58 AM on September 24, 2022 [2 favorites]

In other uutiset, it looks like Finland has decided to bar entry to Russian citizens travelling on Schengen country tourist visas. It was in the works for a while, but has been the case for Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia for about a week now.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 6:59 AM on September 24, 2022 [6 favorites]

Visegrád 24 on Twitter

The former PM and former President of Mongolia
@elbegdorj
with a message to the world.

He says that Putin is using ethnic minorities as cannon fodder in Ukraine

He calls on Buryat, Tuva & Kalmyk Mongols not to go & fight in Ukraine & says Mongolia will receive them if they flee

Includes subtitled video.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 7:35 AM on September 24, 2022 [24 favorites]

Here's a thread from Christopher M. Dougherty, a researcher at the Center for a New American Security, laying out the general tradeoffs and possible outcomes of the mobilization and general style of warfare (quality vs quantity etc).
posted by Harald74 at 7:46 AM on September 24, 2022

Trent Telenko's undoubtedly let stuff go to his head from one viral tweet, but like others said, some of the stuff he's mentioned is the same blindingly obvious "this indicates problems" as more reliable commentators. It's right to be sceptical of some his more outlandish statements, but not to disregard an idea just because he's been one of many to mention it.

I suspect this mobilisation isn't going to be making a great impact for Russia. Not because of any major insight, not because I've seen a few of the more qualified people boggling at it, just because of what's happened already. The 3rd Army were meant to be a large impact, following more training and top equipment. These mobilised troops aren't getting anywhere near that, and I don't think they're going to have particularly forgiving conditions to pick it up as they go.
posted by MattWPBS at 7:50 AM on September 24, 2022 [6 favorites]

With Russia now shown to be in a vulnerable state, some other regional domino effects are appearing.

Escalating Conflict on the Kyrgyz-Tajik Border: Whither the Regional Security Order?
Conflicts have intensified across the former Soviet Union, now in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. It’s a worrying and disillusioning development for the region.

Sitting on Two Shaky Chairs in the Caucasus.
The diplomatic fallout from Azerbaijan’s September attacks against Armenia.
posted by Kabanos at 8:16 AM on September 24, 2022 [5 favorites]

Kings And Generals are back with a summary of month 6 of the Ukraine war: Kherson Counter-Offensive Begins! [32m]
posted by hippybear at 9:17 AM on September 24, 2022

Ukraine Ports Have Shipped Just 4.7 Million Tons Of Grain, gCaptain, John Konrad, September 24, 2022 (reporting by Pavel Polityuk/Reuters):

A total of 211 ships with 4.7 million tonnes of agricultural products on board have left Ukraine so far under a deal brokered by the United Nations and Turkey to unblock Ukrainian sea ports, the Ukrainian infrastructure ministry said on Saturday. The ministry said eight ships with 131,300 tonnes of agricultural products are due to leave Ukrainian Black Sea ports on Saturday.

Ukraine’s grain exports slumped after Russia invaded the country on Feb. 24 and blockaded its Black Sea ports, driving up global food prices and prompting fears of shortages in Africa and the Middle East. Ukraine, a global major grain producer and exporter, shipped up to 6 million tonnes of grain per month before the war.

Three Black Sea ports were reopened under a deal signed on July 22 by Moscow and Kyiv and the ministry has said these ports are able to load and send abroad 100-150 cargo ships per month.

Previous “Ukrainian Grain” articles at gCaptain.
posted by cenoxo at 10:05 AM on September 24, 2022 [3 favorites]

Trent Telenko's original viral tweet about tires used photos of tires that had clearly been shot. Professional military logisticians say his take on pallets is dumb and doesn't take in to fact that even the US army, aka the greatest logistics machine ever, takes shit off pallets when it goes to the front.

Dude is clown shoes.
posted by nestor_makhno at 10:07 AM on September 24, 2022 [1 favorite]

Ukrainian IFV crew chasing pigs off the road.
posted by ryanrs at 10:17 AM on September 24, 2022 [2 favorites]

Dude is clown shoes

Slightly less polite than my phrasing, but yeah.

My point's just that something true doesn't suddenly become false, purely because a clown's one of the people saying it.

Stopped clock twice a day kinda thing, but my brain is refusing to remember the better analogy when it's not a single point. If he's stuck at 6:30, you're not going to assume it's 18:30 just because he says it is, but you also wouldn't use that to say it's not 18:30 if you're also getting that time from your watch, phone, and the speaking clock.
posted by MattWPBS at 10:20 AM on September 24, 2022 [2 favorites]

Fair point.
posted by nestor_makhno at 10:26 AM on September 24, 2022

digging out their old Maxims

Что бы ни случилось, у нас есть Максим, а у них нет.

или они имеют в виду журнал?
posted by kirkaracha at 12:05 PM on September 24, 2022 [3 favorites]

Quoted by cenoxo in a response above:

The Russians are ruthless in their pursuit of their objectives and we should expect that from them. Scolding them about “alleged” war crimes and threatening them with post-war legal jeopardy is pointless. I imagine Putin cannot help but be amused at this naiveté.

I detest this crap. It's a large internet and I'm sure if you look hard enough you can find someone sincerely arguing in favor of any straw man you want to knock down, but nobody I can see who is in a position with any credibility or influence is suggesting that Putin will have a change of heart if we only point out what a meanie he's been.

Documenting war crimes is a serious and necessary undertaking and dismissing it as "scolding" is the sort of digusting faux-pragmatism that generally leads, in the end, to more war crimes.

There are many important reasons why it's vital that we do all we can to document and preserve evidence of the atrocities that are committed in war.

Justice, if it ever comes, will be necessarily delayed, but even in the immediate moment understanding and spreading the news about what is happening is vital to holding together the fragile structure of reluctant allies providing material and intelligence support to the Ukrainians. War doesn't only take place on the battlefield - significant elements of it take place in the economic sphere and the realm of public opinion. Putin may be amused by "scolding" but I imagine he feels rather differently about the failure, to date, of his efforts to shatter the support Ukraine is receiving from EU nations. Documenting, understanding, and refusing to minimize the terrible things that are happening provides a vital counterbalance to efforts to inflame otherwise conflicting national interests that the Russians would like to resume exploiting.
posted by Nerd of the North at 1:16 PM on September 24, 2022 [93 favorites]

In wars for survival—as Putin is framing the war in Ukraine—there are few niceties, what we now view as humanitarian constraints

Atrocities are worse than a crime. They are a mistake. Examples...

Historically, bombing cities fails to break civilian morale. It typically stiffens resolve. See "Without you."

Chemical weapons are battlefield-ineffective.

Nothing is more effective for extracting information from prisoners than kindness.

Etc. The Geneva Conventions are widely accepted because they make war less horrible without reducing the effectiveness of armies which adhere to them. Those few horrorshow weapons which are still widely deployed (nukes, landmines, white phosphorus) are the rare examples where a monstrous weapon might still be effective. When we see Russia torturing and murdering civilians let's understand their crimes to be motivated by some sociopathic desire to feel strong or an expression of impotent anger, not pragmatic behavior motivated by realistic strategy.
posted by justsomebodythatyouusedtoknow at 1:27 PM on September 24, 2022 [49 favorites]

I don't know the provenance of this video, but if it's what it is purported to be... um... looks like the Russians might have taken the whole "You can drop it in mud" thing a little too seriously in their small arms maintenance practices:

Newly arrived Russian infantry were handed rotten AKs to fix
posted by Flunkie at 1:45 PM on September 24, 2022 [1 favorite]

From what I can tell the US military does make extensive us of cargo pallets, even near the front. Here’s a whole article on it in the US Airforce Website. Including photos.
posted by interogative mood at 2:49 PM on September 24, 2022 [1 favorite]

The combination of a cargo pallet plus pallet wrap is undeniably the second most important development in shipping behind the cargo container.
posted by hippybear at 2:57 PM on September 24, 2022 [13 favorites]

Just watched that rusty AK video via /r/NonCredibleDefense.

Some of the comments in that thread are priceless: "when an african childsoldier gets better equipment than you"

They also have good memes, even if I can't follow half of what they are saying in that subreddit.
posted by Dip Flash at 4:15 PM on September 24, 2022 [2 favorites]

There are rumors that the Russian Air Force has been ordered to be less risk averse and run more sorties.

Here are a few that have been shot down today:
Su-30
Su-30
Ka-52
posted by ryanrs at 4:28 PM on September 24, 2022 [3 favorites]

"Here. A potato for you."

"A potato. This is my assigned rations for the campaign?"

"No, this is your assigned weapon."
posted by delfin at 4:50 PM on September 24, 2022 [20 favorites]

From what I can tell the US military does make extensive us of cargo pallets, even near the front.

The Army drives entire 20ft. shipping containers to forward bases: Palletized Load System - Wikipedia
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 5:33 PM on September 24, 2022 [1 favorite]

The Ukraine crisis and the international law of armed conflict (LOAC): some Q & A, Lawfire, Charlie Dunlap, J.D. [bio, WP], 27 February 2022:

With intense fighting underway in the Ukraine, this post in our series is designed to give brief answers to some law of armed conflict questions this invasion and subsequent crisis has generated. They are by no means full dissertations on often complicated applications of the law, but will—hopefully—help you get started with your own assessment.

• Do the Geneva Conventions apply?
• Are Ukraine and Russia parties to the Geneva Conventions and other international treaties?
• If Russia violated international law by invading the Ukraine, are Russian soldiers still governed (and protected) by the law of armed conflict (LOAC)?
• What is the status of the Ukrainian citizens who rise up against Russian invaders?
• What about human shields?
• Is it legal for Russian soldiers to dress in civilian clothes to infiltrate the Ukraine?
• Does publishing photographs of prisoners of war violate LOAC?
• Can other countries supply weapons and war supplies to the Ukraine without being a co-belligerent in war?
• Does it violate LOAC to use “ballistic missiles and other explosive weapons with wide area effects in densely populated areas”?
• If commercial satellites, social media, and other “open source” capabilities become de factor intelligence sources for belligerent militaries, what are the LOAC implications? What about the hostile use of cyber?
• Are flamethrowers legal?

Answers in the article.
posted by cenoxo at 5:39 PM on September 24, 2022 [6 favorites]

we've not been careful.

I think things have gone remarkably well in terms of avoiding escalation and containing the conflict to Russian and Ukrainian combatants. From the perspective of anyone who wishes Ukraine well, I think things are going about as smoothly as they are able to so far.
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 6:03 PM on September 24, 2022 [2 favorites]

A Teacher at University (Japanese History) asked what is the difference between Cultural appropriation and cultural assimilation.

"Take and use what is useful and leave the rest behind just don't make a big show of it."
Doc laughed, head sideways and gave a cool little high pitched Gene Wilder "yeah" and "no". Then explained the concept, it was in a comparison to Japanese and American cultural and technology assimilation and how both were similar at some points in the respective histories.

"Comparitive maneuverability and weight displacement with various Ural and California woods in the transporting of small arms ammunition"

appropriating humour or assimilation.
The last few threads have been heavier on the cackle of small arms fire, and down right funny riposte.

Solders do that, when they are not fighting for lives those small moments which I call the affirmation of breath.

But we're not fighting, we're talking and crying, posting and arguing, hoping that hope should never again 'be enough.'

justsomebodythatyouusedtoknow. The acronym is even hard, no shades of connotation, Damn.

Nothing is more effective for extracting information from prisoners than kindness.

Nothing says gottdammed serious as when interrogation and the Luftwaffe are brought in. To digress, I believe throughout these threads 99.5% of the comments about Russians themselves have not been derogatory or overly negative I think it's a testament that one may attack Putin and his henchmen and somehow differentiate between the average Russian. I don't think it's really a tactic of conversation rather that the Russians are resisting because when it's over, documenting crimes is critical.

Bombing cities. Historically I'm gnashing, looking for little Disney raids late in the war, Hamburg, Dresden, Tokyo, Nagasaki. Burning 20,000 people on an hour to etching shadows of 100, 000 in an instant. The component of decision being time and vengence. antecedent and the presents future can eke or erupt, redemption will not care. The volkstrumm who comes to America and teaches math. The files of Toul Sleng left behind. The V-1s use after Hamburg.

In 'The Mask of Command', "For most of history, Keegan argues, warriors who "carry forward others to the risk of their lives" could reveal only as much of themselves as their followers required; all else had to be concealed by a mask of command."
The section on Grant is very good. Thing is, I don't think Putin has a command or mask let alone the willingness to mount up and fight. He's like a semi-corperal wraith, a shadow in the shade of other peoples history.
posted by clavdivs at 6:05 PM on September 24, 2022 [2 favorites]

Hasn’t that photo of the Russian with the Mosin been debunked as being from a reeenactment in 2020?
posted by awfurby at 6:39 PM on September 24, 2022

Hasn’t that photo of the Russian with the Mosin been debunked as being from a reeenactment in 2020?

There is a mix of photos going around, both real and misrepresented. The ones of draftees from a few months ago were real, and are still being reported as real (like in this WSJ article from a few days ago). The people in this video from May aren't reenactors, and there are other photos floating around of people carrying those old guns next to vehicles with the "V" on them.
posted by Dip Flash at 8:44 PM on September 24, 2022 [2 favorites]

Ukrainian modernized Mosin-Nagant

This is not from the war. It's a 2020 review of a civilian Mosin-Nagant upgrade kit made by a Ukrainian company.

Ukraine is not arming its soldiers with Mosins. But if they were, this is what they'd probably look like.

p.s. someone pls make a virgin/chad meme of this
posted by ryanrs at 8:44 PM on September 24, 2022 [2 favorites]

Business Insider, quoting NYT: Seeking to avoid another major failure, Putin has become more hands-on with his commanders, refusing their requests to retreat from the last Ukrainian city under Russian control

"In this war, there has been a consistent mismatch between Putin's political objectives and the military means to attain them," Michael Kofman, director of Russia studies at CNA, a defense research institute, told The Times. "At important decision points, Putin has procrastinated, refusing to recognize the reality, until the options turned from bad to worse."

posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 9:31 PM on September 24, 2022 [15 favorites]

That sounds sure to go well.

But the war's not really going to turn around until Putin rides into battle, shirtless, and cows the Ukrainians with his awesome alpha-ness. At least that seems to be how many of his internet fans seem to think this works.
posted by Nerd of the North at 9:46 PM on September 24, 2022 [4 favorites]

the last Ukranian city under Russian control

That's a bizarre claim. For anyone besides me who is wondering: It seems to be based on the NYT's claim that Kherson is "the only regional capital under Moscow's control".

That also seems like a weird claim -- what about Sevastapol? Simferopol? Donetsk? Luhansk? -- but I guess it's at least less weird :\
posted by Flunkie at 9:48 PM on September 24, 2022 [9 favorites]

the war's not really going to turn around until Putin rides into battle, shirtless, and cows the Ukrainians with his awesome alpha-ness.

Oooooooh, I hope he challenges them to a hockey match!
posted by Flunkie at 9:51 PM on September 24, 2022 [2 favorites]

It seems to be based on the NYT's claim that Kherson is "the only regional capital under Moscow's control".

Probably with the implicit caveat 'that wasn't before Feb. 24th."
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 10:08 PM on September 24, 2022 [2 favorites]

Yes, but... that's weird.
posted by Flunkie at 10:10 PM on September 24, 2022 [2 favorites]

It'll all make sense in the morning, after they quietly edit article a couple times.
posted by ryanrs at 10:51 PM on September 24, 2022 [6 favorites]

Thinking about it today, with all the young Russian men heading for the border - the obvious parallel with Ukraine vs. Russia in our recent experience is Vietnam vs. USA with all the young American men heading for Canada
posted by mbo at 2:01 AM on September 25, 2022 [7 favorites]

On Twitter, Julia Davis translates an account of a woman being conscripted into the Russian army: https://twitter.com/juliadavisnews/status/1573712374275637248?s=21&t=wXB80juD3LP7rRdDySnk9g
posted by newdaddy at 2:23 AM on September 25, 2022 [1 favorite]

p.s. someone pls make a virgin/chad meme of this [tacticool Moisin-Nagant chassis kit]

Ivan Chesnokov would like a word.
posted by automatronic at 3:49 AM on September 25, 2022 [7 favorites]

Thinking about it today, with all the young Russian men heading for the border - the obvious parallel with Ukraine vs. Russia in our recent experience is Vietnam vs. USA with all the young American men heading for Canada

The numbers of people who left the US to avoid the draft seems to be still contested, but the higher of the estimates quoted here are around 100,000. The miles-long lines at the border crossings right now, plus sold out plane flights, plus the previous waves of people leaving over the past few months, suggest that this draft is far, far more unpopular than the Vietnam one was in the US.

(This makes sense just thinking about someone's personal risk -- the US had something like 55k deaths in Vietnam, mosty between 1965 and 1972, out of a total number of soldiers stationed there of something like 3 million. Russia has had a significant fraction of that number of deaths in just seven months, out of a much smaller force. Your chances of getting killed as a Russian draftee are vastly higher than if you had been sent to Vietnam.)
posted by Dip Flash at 7:32 AM on September 25, 2022 [6 favorites]

Anecdote - a friend is in a Baltic city over the weekend and got very little sleep last night because the other room in her Airbnb was occupied by a married couple of Russian scientists in their fifties, on their way back from a European research trip. Apparently the wife was crying all night because of the dilemma facing them - whether to go back and risk the husband being drafted or try to make do in Europe with only what they packed for a two week research trip (or presumably for her to go back with no idea when they'll see each other again). They left very early in the morning so my friend still doesn't know what the final decision was.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 8:16 AM on September 25, 2022 [28 favorites]

I was thinking of other parallels with Vietnam too, small country fighting for it's life against a super power, getting help from another super power from a distance, but not too closely with no one quite wanting it to turn into ww3 ...
posted by mbo at 9:21 AM on September 25, 2022 [4 favorites]

Ukraine is not a small country though. It's larger than Germany or France. It's in fact the largest country that is entirely inside of Europe.
posted by Too-Ticky at 9:39 AM on September 25, 2022 [11 favorites]

From a journalist via Twitter:

What is the Russian Orthodox Church making of Putin's mobilisation?

Patriarch Kirill said in his sermon today that soldiers dying in Ukraine would have all their sins washed away

I feel so badly for the Russian troops who did not ask for this war. One can root for Ukraine while mourning the lives lost on both sides (and recognize that those who commit war crimes are not victims). This religious bullshit is shameful but of course such powerful, privileged men are shameless.
posted by Bella Donna at 9:44 AM on September 25, 2022 [11 favorites]

Vietnam is not exactly a small country either

Afghanistan 653,000 km2
France (Europe only): 552,000 km2
Ukraine: 603,000 km2
Iraq: 438,00 km2
California 424,000 km2
Germany: 357,000 km2
Japan: 378,000 km2
Vietnam: 331,000 km2
Poland: 313,000 km2
Grenada: 311 km2

(Iran: 1,649,000 km2)
posted by Rumple at 10:34 AM on September 25, 2022 [8 favorites]

About "small countries" -- I think people are also thinking about population size, and the relative differences between the countries at war.
posted by NotLost at 10:38 AM on September 25, 2022 [2 favorites]

NotLost: About "small countries" -- I think people are also thinking about population size,

General population: in 1965 North* Vietnam stood at 18 million, USA at 180 million.
Ukraine 2021: 41 million, Russia 141 million.
If you would try to correct for some military age bracket it gets a bit foggy, because when fighting on home ground it's easier for people outside that bracket to still provide some kind of assistance.

* North Vietnam as the main force against the South + US. Of course there were partisans and sympathizers in the South as well, but adding those to the numbers would require more digging.
posted by Stoneshop at 11:34 AM on September 25, 2022

Population sizes aside there are reports of men just getting rounded up wholesale with the only real requirement being the ability to fog a mirror.

The comparison to the US draft for the Vietnam war makes some sense and it's the same kind of thing but more in the same way an injured, enraged lion is the same kind of thing as an angry cat.

It's probably closer to the draft during the US Civil war with riots and such. I don't know that there is much value in the comparison. Russian draftees are going to have a qualitatively wildly different experience than anything else.
posted by VTX at 11:53 AM on September 25, 2022 [2 favorites]

So it seems like their is an exit ban coming in Russia. Due to take force on the 28th.
posted by Harald74 at 11:59 AM on September 25, 2022 [1 favorite]

The comparison to the US draft for the Vietnam war makes some sense

there were significant differences - first of all, it was based on a lottery, so many of those with "good" birthdays didn't have to worry

second was the college exemption

third was the exemption for men with families

so, 100,000 going to other countries during the vietnam war can't really be compared to the russian call up, because many americans weren't going to get drafted and god only knows how many russians will be
posted by pyramid termite at 1:01 PM on September 25, 2022 [1 favorite]

The distracted boyfriend meme is going to still be being used in some form in 100 years I'm convinced.
posted by hippybear at 1:25 PM on September 25, 2022 [7 favorites]

Are the Russians attempting to leave considered refugees at this point?
posted by Selena777 at 1:53 PM on September 25, 2022

I'm not sure if I'm right, but I'm in favor of countries around Russia accepting men trying to avoid the draft. Russia getting depopulated sounds like a good idea.
posted by Nancy Lebovitz at 2:11 PM on September 25, 2022 [4 favorites]

Are the Russians attempting to leave considered refugees at this point?

It depends on the country. Estonia for example is only taking in people with actual draft papers, not people afraid of being drafted. So if someone walks up to the border with their mobilization papers in hand they should be able to ask for asylum. They may still not give it to them but they did say they would give every application a fair shake.

That being said, they have zero interest in all the Russians that want to hang out in Tallinn while the war blows over and have effectively closed the border to them.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 2:16 PM on September 25, 2022 [4 favorites]

Russia getting depopulated sounds like a good idea.

It sounds complicated for those adjacent countries to me. On the one hand, it's compassionate and it's a little thing you can do to help defeat Russia. Deny it of fighters by letting them hide out. On the other hand, a significant population of Russians is the exact excuse Russia likes to use to annex and invade. Plus, a sudden immigration wave is economically difficult, and many of those immigrants in this case don't intend to stay and contribute, they're just hiding temporarily.
posted by ctmf at 2:25 PM on September 25, 2022 [14 favorites]

Indeed. The Baltic nations already have issues with substantial Russian minorities, many of whom were settled there during Soviet times as part of Soviet-era policies. Their willingness to integrate with the majority populations has been variable and many of their members identify (again, to varying degrees) as Russian.

With everybody in the region excruciatingly aware of how Russian-speakers in Ukraine's eastern regions have been used as a justification for the "special military operation" it's completely understandable that, whatever sympathy they may have for individuals facing conscription, former Soviet states are nevertheless extremely wary of the potential problems that could arise from taking on large numbers of Russian refugees.
posted by Nerd of the North at 4:03 PM on September 25, 2022 [20 favorites]

Estonia for example is only taking in people with actual draft papers, not people afraid of being drafted.

There's a long thread here by an Estonian Member of Parliament: Eerik N Kross on Twitter

6. This is exactly what the EU law says. A legal ground for getting asylum is a proven danger of being punished for refusing and order to fight in a conflict.

7. That means, we will consider an asylum applications from Russians who have received mobilisation orders and not followed them. Not from all 25 million who are of mobilisation age.

Of course, that could still end up being an large number of Russians.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 4:09 PM on September 25, 2022 [8 favorites]

Russian security services count more than 260,000 men fleeing Russia [meduza.io]

According to the source, the latest FSB information which “walked through his office” today, September 25, lists 261,000 men who left Russia between Wednesday and Saturday night.

posted by Buntix at 4:49 PM on September 25, 2022

A giant difference between when Russia invaded Ukraine and martial law was declared and all men of fighting age were immediately called into service... and all the Ukrainian men basically went there to defend their country.
posted by hippybear at 4:55 PM on September 25, 2022 [1 favorite]

How many? 260k seems incredible
posted by eustatic at 5:29 PM on September 25, 2022

How many? 260k seems incredible

Sounds like they may be made up numbers to push the border closing agenda.

Novaya Gazeta Europe’s source doubts the authenticity of the FSB data, because until now the FSB’s border services “didn’t work so fast.” Nonetheless, “the atmosphere within in the administration is such that security forces and the defense ministry will be able to persuade Putin to close the exits before it’s too late” said the source

posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 5:49 PM on September 25, 2022 [2 favorites]

Shaun Walker reports in The Guardian: ‘A way to get rid of us’: Crimean Tatars decry Russia’s mobilisation.


In a long twitter thread, Crimean Tatar film director Nariman Aliev acknowledges the difficult position of those still in Crimea but appeals to them to resist against Russia [written in Ukrainian, but Twitter's translate does a good job]:

The Russian mobilization of the Crimean Tatars is not just an attempt to get meat for the front. This is an attempt to take away our future, this is an attempt on our existence. And this question is not only in the plane of physical destruction of modern generations, it is a question of the existence of our nation.
...
I ask Ukrainians to treat this situation with understanding. The Crimean Tatars are allies of Ukraine, who will find themselves in a minority deep in the enemy's rear, and this is not the first time that the enemy has sought to destroy them.
...
Now either we will support each other, or we will pay an even greater price for our freedom with you. And this is the desire of Russia. Take as many lives as possible, because Russia is a terrorist-suicide state.

posted by Kabanos at 6:23 PM on September 25, 2022 [18 favorites]

Visegrád 24 on Twitter

Ukrainian mother tells the story of how the Russians kidnapped her 13-year-old daughter and sent her to a “summer camp” in Russia after occupying her village.

She was never returned and her mother has no idea where she is.

Includes short, heartbreaking, video.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 7:58 PM on September 25, 2022 [6 favorites]

> ChurchHatesTucker: "She was never returned and her mother has no idea where she is."

This is your periodic reminder that such actions meet one of the UN's criteria for genocide (specifically, "Forcibly transferring children of the group to another group.").
posted by mhum at 8:06 PM on September 25, 2022 [21 favorites]

How closely does the US want to look in that mirror, with the child separation policy still with many unresolved cases?
posted by hippybear at 8:09 PM on September 25, 2022 [13 favorites]

There was a comment very early on, regarding 'oh sure, Europe will take these Ukrainian refugees, but not people from X' (with the implication that it's because they're white/christian/etc).

I failed to say at the time that there seemed to be a difference between the Ukrainian refugees being
a) Mom, Grandma, the kids, and the cat, while the men stayed home to fight
b) people coming from a functioning, prosperous liberal democracy
c) more or less expecting to be able to go back home in six months or a year and rebuild at home, which was next door anyway
Rather than 'oh yes please, send us the unemployed illiterate male population of your religious dictatorship failed state from an entirely different bioregion, that will work out great'.
because that would have been culturally insensitive.

But I think that maybe now I'm back on my bullshit, thinking that maybe the only people who are ultimately going to be able to 'fix Russia' are Russians, doing it from within.

Which leads me to think that perhaps one way of proceeding that way would be for another level of sanctions, the for-lack-of-a-better-term, diplomatic 'nuclear option':

Dear Citizens of the Russian Federation;
starting on [date], NATO and other aligned nations will be applying the following:
1) the Ruble has no value as a currency or medium of exchange
2) Russian Federation passports are no longer recognized as valid international travel or identity documents. Russian nationals who find themselves in NATO countries will have their visas cancelled. They may apply for asylum or voluntarily depart.
Both of these sanction policies will be reviewed or ended, during peace negotiations with a NEW leader of the Russian Federation.

In short: for as long as Putin is around, your money is no good and you can't leave. Figure out your own problems, at home. Call us back when we can talk to the next guy.

What do people think about that?
posted by bartleby at 8:21 PM on September 25, 2022 [3 favorites]

How closely does the US want to look in that mirror, with the child separation policy still with many unresolved cases?

All the more reason why we should categorically reject and resist such policies.
posted by Nerd of the North at 8:39 PM on September 25, 2022 [23 favorites]

What do people think about that?


Okay, now Russia is an enclosed and besieged piece of territory with working ICBMs and warheads.
posted by ocschwar at 8:44 PM on September 25, 2022 [1 favorite]

To be fair, based on what we've seen of their military, the theory of "working ICBMs" is maybe 50/50, but who can take that chance?
posted by hippybear at 8:46 PM on September 25, 2022 [4 favorites]

What do people think about that?

The Iran thread just went up today if you want to have a think on how well a captive population can exercise their non-existent democratic rights.
posted by cendawanita at 8:59 PM on September 25, 2022 [13 favorites]

No love lost for the Russians but that's a spectacularly bad idea, as policy. I'm not well-read enough to take on why but a glance at history of the 20th century feels quite instructive. But I'm also a systems-minded person. Just like this invasion is failed by bad logistics, regardless of how Putin and other "ruscists" feel about Ukraine and the Ukrainian mind/psychology, I've yet to be convinced by history and politics that shaming people especially when the base assumption is that they're too stupid to think (whether that's just a playacting position or not) has a direct connection to changing the system if the system isn't designed for it. Do you really think Americans are somehow on the whole more motivated in their civic behaviour than Russians? Or is that there are levers in place that can be moved as long as a certain threshold is achieved? I think it's the latter and Russia as a society have a much higher threshold.

But let's say, you can shame them into wanting to change. Ok, now what? What's next? Even British Americans had help from the French, or did i get my Mel Gibson references wrong?
posted by cendawanita at 9:40 PM on September 25, 2022 [6 favorites]

Mod note: One deleted. Let's stick to the actual news, rather than (increasingly fanciful) hypotheticals, please.
posted by taz (staff) at 10:01 PM on September 25, 2022 [7 favorites]

My little Norwegian town now has a small population of Ukrainian refugees - children, women, elderly people. I'd rather not upend their lives again by having to receive an influx of grown Russian men, not fleeing because they oppose the war itself, but because they now are in danger of being conscripted and having to fight in it.

The war is massively popular in Russia, at least while fought by other people and shown on TV. Fleeing the country because you have a possibility of being called in the draft, not because you have a history of dissent, is pretty weak sauce.
posted by Harald74 at 11:47 PM on September 25, 2022 [18 favorites]

In Siberia, the head of a local draft board was shot.

Russian commander shot at military enlistment office in Ust-Ilimsk, Russia.

Video of the shooting.
posted by ryanrs at 12:07 AM on September 26, 2022 [4 favorites]

There's been an uptick in arson attacks on draft offices as well.
posted by Harald74 at 2:19 AM on September 26, 2022 [1 favorite]

U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services — Home > Humanitarian > Refugees and Asylum > Asylum > Obtaining Asylum in the United States:

There are 3 ways of obtaining asylum in the United States:

• The affirmative process;
• An Asylum Merits Interview after a positive credible fear determination; or
• The defensive process.

[On this USCIS web page, click the following drop-down menu links (below the above bullets) to display more information about:]

— Affirmative Asylum Processing with USCIS [*] V
— Asylum Merits Interview with USCIS After a Positive Credible Fear Determination V
— Defensive Asylum Processing with EOIR V
— Key Differences Between Affirmative Asylum, Asylum Merits Interview with USCIS after a Positive Credible Fear Determination, and Defensive Asylum V
— Related Links V

*There’s also Step 1-7 instructions at The Affirmative Asylum Process page, and a related link for the Affirmative Asylum Procedures Manual (AAPM) 2016 (PDF, 1.83 MB).

Additional resources are listed on the USCIS Contact Us page.
posted by cenoxo at 2:43 AM on September 26, 2022

There's been an uptick in arson attacks on draft offices as well.

And a school shooting. Not necessarily war-related, I guess, but it's been a hell of a day in Russia.
posted by ctmf at 3:06 AM on September 26, 2022

There's been an uptick in arson attacks on draft offices as well.

This one in Irkutsk is a work of art.
posted by Buntix at 3:34 AM on September 26, 2022 [12 favorites]

Valery Zaluzhnyi: Prospects for guaranteeing the military campaign of 2023: the Ukrainian view

Eventsinukraine translator’s note - this article was published in early September on the Ukrainian government site Ukrinform - you can access the Ukrainian language original here. It was written by the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and a politician from Poroshenko’s ‘European Solidarity’ Party.

The only way to radically change the strategic situation is, without a doubt, to launch several consecutive, and ideally simultaneous counterattacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine during the 2023 campaign. It is unnecessary to emphasize separately their purely military and their political and informational significance. At the same time, the issue of their organization and implementation needs more attention.

So, what forces and means are needed for this? If we consider the 2023 campaign as a turning point, then for consideration we need to return to the identification of the center of gravity for the Russian Federation in this war. After all, only an effective influence on the enemy's center of gravity can lead to changes in the course of the war.

Provided that such a center of gravity is defined as control over the Crimean peninsula, it is logical to assume planning for 2023 an operation or a series of operations to seize the peninsula. Such planning should provide, first of all, for the availability of the necessary set of troops. And we are not talking about military units and formations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which are already operating on the 2,500 km front from Kherson to Kovel.

posted by kmt at 4:00 AM on September 26, 2022 [1 favorite]

Mysterious Sea Drone Surfaces in Crimea. It looks like a homemade anti-ship weapon most likely built and deployed by UA.
posted by 1970s Antihero at 6:23 AM on September 26, 2022 [4 favorites]

Man shoots commander in drafting office.

The Irkutsk regional governor, Igor Kobzev, wrote on the Telegram messaging app that the head of the draft office was in a critical condition in hospital, where doctors were “fighting for his life”. Kobzev said the detained gunman would “absolutely be punished”.

“I am ashamed that this is happening at a time when, on the contrary, we should be united,” the governor wrote. “We must fight not against each other, but against real threats.”

The shooter clearly had a different opinion on what the real threat was.
posted by Stoneshop at 7:09 AM on September 26, 2022 [10 favorites]

Mysterious Sea Drone Surfaces in Crimea.

STARLINK MARITIME - High-speed, low-latency internet with up to 350 Mbps download while at sea. $5,000/mo with a one-time hardware cost of $10,000 for two high performance [Starlink Rectangular] terminals.

A new single fixed-panel antenna will be offered in Q4 2022. Compare the sea drone’s panel antenna (War Zone) to several photos of the larger, fixed Starlink Maritime antenna (with a semi-enclosed base) shown at Spotted: Starlink being installed across multiple Royal Caribbean cruise ships, Royal Caribbean Blog, Sep 13, 2022.
posted by cenoxo at 7:42 AM on September 26, 2022 [1 favorite]

Stop the presses!

The Guardian: Putin ally Yevgeny Prigozhin admits founding Wagner mercenary group

Yevgeny Prigozhin, a Russian businessman and a close ally of Vladimir Putin, has admitted that he founded the Wagner Group private military company in 2014, the first public confirmation of a link he has previously denied.

Prigozhin, known as “Putin’s chef” because his catering business hosted dinners attended by the Russian president, said he founded Wagner to support Russian-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine.

posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 7:50 AM on September 26, 2022 [6 favorites]

NPR: Russian men flee the country. Many are showing up in Istanbul.
"everything is worse than you know and Russian men are going anywhere they can now."
posted by adamvasco at 9:05 AM on September 26, 2022 [3 favorites]

The Kyiv Independent on Twitter

⚡️Mayor: Melitopol residents forced to vote in ‘referendum’ for absent relatives, neighbors.

The mayor of Melitopol, a Russian-occupied city in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Ivan Fedorov said that Russian occupiers are making locals vote for residents who evacuated due to the low turnout

posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 10:26 AM on September 26, 2022

It'll be interesting to see Edward Snowden picking up a rifle and heading for Ukraine to defend Russia.
posted by SPrintF at 12:32 PM on September 26, 2022 [7 favorites]

Snowden is legally ineligible for the mobilization (hasn't previously served), and I suspect that there's a good chance that the Russian government will uncharacteristically follow its laws in his case.
posted by Flunkie at 12:57 PM on September 26, 2022

Snowden briefly served in the US Army.
posted by ryanrs at 1:13 PM on September 26, 2022

Could his new citizenship be to keep him in Russia in the event he decides prison-time in the US is more agreeable than a weird semi-imprisonment in Russia?
posted by glaucon at 1:13 PM on September 26, 2022 [1 favorite]

I doubt that having served in the US Army counts, but in any case, his lawyer has said he's ineligible due to not having served.
posted by Flunkie at 1:15 PM on September 26, 2022

Lol nothing counts for anything in Russia. I don't actually care what happens to Snowden, though I will take an interest if it's funny.
posted by ryanrs at 1:17 PM on September 26, 2022 [9 favorites]

Snowden's last public statements about the war are funny in a poorly-aged-takes sort of way:

"If there's an invasion tomorrow, dunk on me because I have been spectacularly wrong. " - @Snowden Feb 15

He never says anything about Ukraine past Feb 18th. The invasion began on the 24th.
posted by meowzilla at 1:48 PM on September 26, 2022 [9 favorites]

I could be wrong -- I don't follow him, it was months ago, and I have the memory of whatever the opposite of a steel trap is -- but I think I saw a tweet from him post-invasion, saying or at least implying that the invasion was a bad thing. Then radio silence for a while (days?), then another tweet saying something like "Just because I spoke against this war and then I didn't tweet anything for a while doesn't mean I've been murdered, you know".
posted by Flunkie at 1:57 PM on September 26, 2022

Edward Snowden
@Snowden
18m
“They who can treat secretly of the affairs of a nation have it absolutely under their authority; and as they plot against the enemy in time of war, so do they against the citizens in time of peace.”

― Baruch Spinoza

yup, He's just qoated Spinoza, so...
posted by clavdivs at 2:56 PM on September 26, 2022 [2 favorites]

Mod note: a few comments deleted, let’s try to keep the noise at a minimum folks.
posted by travelingthyme (staff) at 3:12 PM on September 26, 2022 [2 favorites]

Until morale improves.

Putin’s Top Cheerleaders Panic Over Russian Army ‘Mutiny’

Having previously tweeted that RT received over seven hundred complaints pertaining to the mobilization, [RT head] Simonyan promised to publicize the names of the commanders involved in problematic cases of mobilization, if the situation does not improve. [RT host] Solovyov had a more radical proposal to boost the sinking morale in the country, asking, “Could we have executions by shooting?”

posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 3:13 PM on September 26, 2022 [4 favorites]

Executions? One would suffice.
posted by snuffleupagus at 6:05 PM on September 26, 2022 [3 favorites]

"Professional military logisticians say his take on pallets is dumb and doesn't take in to fact that even the US army, aka the greatest logistics machine ever, takes shit off pallets when it goes to the front."

Got any links to those quotes? Because that is drastically different from everything I have ever seen or read about US military logistics. There are points where the destination is so small that pallets get broken up, but that is very far down the chain and after the depots/long distance trucking/trains/planes stage. While in Russia every single transfer in that stage is done box by box, and mostly by human muscle power.
posted by tavella at 6:12 PM on September 26, 2022 [6 favorites]

UA Pravda: Mobilised Russians call hotline to ask how to surrender

What it sounds like, but includes this interesting bit at the end.

Russian occupation authorities have said that they were planning to form "voluntary" battalions in the occupied territories in southern Ukraine. At the same time, however, Putin and other Russian officials are fearful of arming residents of the occupied territories of Ukraine.

posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 6:46 PM on September 26, 2022 [10 favorites]

Specifics of pallet-ization aside, the US also has just a lot more support troops than Russia, in relationship to combat troops.

It's usually referred to as the tooth-to-tail ratio.

While you can make arguments that they can't be comparable (for example, US equipment is a lot more technologically complicated than Russia's and requires more maintenance; at the same time, Russia's artillery-heavy strategy requires a lot of rounds to be transported); Ryan McBeth, a former US Army anti-tank infantryman, estimates that the US's current tooth-to-tail ratio is 1:5, meaning that for each combat soldier there are five support soldiers.

He estimates that Russia's ratio is a measly 1:1.1, from their org charts. So even if Russia had all the technological advances of the US, they have a lot less people to move supplies and fix things that break.
posted by meowzilla at 7:55 PM on September 26, 2022 [11 favorites]

Fortune: Russia's economy will 'die by winter' because of military mobilization

Now, Russian economist Vladislav Inozemtsev, the director of Moscow-based think tank the Center for Research on Post-Industrial Studies, is warning that Putin’s mobilization will have “truly catastrophic consequences,” including the death of the Russian economy and the downfall of Putin’s regime.

...

The “financial effects of mobilization—in the medium-term—will be significantly greater than the consequences of…the war in Ukraine,” Inozemtsev said.

In Russia’s poorer regions like Buryatia, the economic consequences will be disastrous, as “thousands of families will be left without income, and local medium and small businesses will simply die out,” Inozemtsev wrote.

posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 9:09 PM on September 26, 2022 [10 favorites]

Both NordStream 1 and 2 has sprung leaks on the bottom of the Baltic Sea. Danish authorities have issued a navigation warning for the area, as gas is bubbling up to the surface.
posted by Harald74 at 1:48 AM on September 27, 2022 [6 favorites]

In case of a nuclear strike, Ukrainians have a plan:

And in case of a nuclear strike, Kyivans are planning an orgy on one of Kyiv's hills. Ukrainians, always rising to the challenge.

posted by Kattullus at 5:25 AM on September 27, 2022 [2 favorites]

The Looming Worry Of Russia Using Nuclear Weapons In Ukraine — Losing ground and its forces depleted, concern that Russia could use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, even to try and freeze the conflict, grows., Tyler Rogoway, The War Zone, Sep 26, 2022:

Russia's possible use of nuclear weapons against Ukraine is something of a tortured topic. Even leading up to the now eight-month-old all-out invasion, there was no shortage of nuclear weapons talk. Some decried this as fantastical fear-mongering, while others posited that anything was possible. Now, amid fresh nuclear threats from Putin himself, and considering Russia is losing ground in its great war of choice and appears desperate for manpower in order to stave off further retreat, unfortunately, it's time to talk about the possibility that the nuclear genie gets forced out of the bottle after 77 years.

The first question most have when it comes to nuclear weapons and the conflict in Ukraine is why would Russia nuke a country it is occupying and one that is so close to its own borders? The problem here is that most people's perception of a nuclear strike is as some sort of massively invasive attack against multiple targets of great value, but that is not necessarily the case. This is especially true in regard to Russian combat doctrine and potential strategy in which just detonating a nuclear weapon in anger, regardless of its yield or target, can be used as a tactic to solidify gains, not land a major blow against the enemy. This concept is often referred to as 'escalate to de-escalate.' Although we have talked about it many times in the past, it's time we look at it in terms of the current circumstances in Ukraine….

More in the article.
posted by cenoxo at 7:55 AM on September 27, 2022 [4 favorites]

Looks like someone sabotaged the pipeline with underwater explosives. The list of suspects is remarkably short.

Could you please explain what you mean, Teegeeack AV Club Secretary?

I don't see anything in the link about either sabotage or suspects (unless you count from replies by random Twitter users). Do you just mean these things to be statements of your own opinion, as opposed to something that I may have missed in the link?
posted by Flunkie at 8:37 AM on September 27, 2022 [2 favorites]

To be clear, I understand that both having sprung leaks essentially simultaneously seems... rather suspicious. I'm just wondering if there's something in the link that I missed.
posted by Flunkie at 8:39 AM on September 27, 2022

Interestingly, there is a book 2034 I read last year. It’s goal is to fictionalize likely scenarios should the US and China go to war. The scenarios are largely based on war games and other experts, so this is meant as a handy read to understand what might happen.

In the book, Russia sabotages underground internet cables critical to western infrastructure. I know the pipelines were possibly blown up, but if that was Russia, that is right out of military planner scenarios.
posted by glaucon at 8:42 AM on September 27, 2022 [1 favorite]

Putin gets serious.

The Guardian: Russia to boycott Oscars as cultural isolation deepens

Russia will not submit a film to the Oscars this year, the first time the country has boycotted the prestigious film awards since the fall of the Soviet Union, as Moscow’s cultural isolation deepens.

“The presidium of the Film Academy of Russia has decided not to nominate a national film for the Oscars award of the American Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences in 2022,” the Russian academy said in a statement on Monday.

The chairman of Russia’s Oscar nomination commission announced in a letter on Tuesday that he was resigning following the move, which he said was an “illegal” decision taken “behind his back”.

posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 8:47 AM on September 27, 2022 [4 favorites]

To be clear, I understand that both having sprung leaks essentially simultaneously seems... rather suspicious. I'm just wondering if there's something in the link that I missed.

The tweets mention 2 seismic events happening at the location of the leaks, just before the leaks sprang. Not too difficult to conclude to sabotage.

It seem to be believed that it's Russia putting the squeeze on Europe, I don't why they can't just shut it down instead of breaking it, there's not much face left to save, maybe to signal they're won't be walking it back. But I don't claim to know anything of the tactical & political realities of this pipeline.
posted by WaterAndPixels at 8:57 AM on September 27, 2022 [1 favorite]

Germany, Poland and even Russia does not rule out sabotage.
posted by Harald74 at 9:00 AM on September 27, 2022

Now I do know that gas pipelines have compressors in them to push the gas forward, maybe you can affect the gas mix upstream to make it more explosive and blow up the compressors? Seems unlikely you'd put a compressor underwater but I'm no expert.
posted by WaterAndPixels at 9:02 AM on September 27, 2022

I wonder what the the expected lifespan of Baltic Pipe, the Norway-Poland gas pipeline is now...
posted by Harald74 at 9:03 AM on September 27, 2022

To be clear, I understand that both having sprung leaks essentially simultaneously seems... rather suspicious. I'm just wondering if there's something in the link that I missed.

An undersea pipeline just springing a leak does not register a magnitude 2.3 seismic event.
posted by Stoneshop at 9:07 AM on September 27, 2022 [1 favorite]

Yes, I shouldn't have said "springing a leak".
posted by Flunkie at 9:09 AM on September 27, 2022

since the pipeline is on the ocean floor, there wouldn't really need to be precise targeting like with a missile. just a couple of bombs fused properly and dropped at the right spot. Ukraine operation? I don't see the motive for Russia, why would they take away their own cheap-gas leverage over europe.
posted by Ansible at 9:11 AM on September 27, 2022 [3 favorites]

I don't know enough about modern seismographs to know how they respond to an explosive weapon, but if they can differentiate between that and tectonic activity (which seems reasonably likely), then an actual 2.2 earthquake could surely be the proximate cause of damage to both pipelines, no? That's a good explanation of the "coincidence" of both failing simultaneously.
posted by jackbishop at 9:13 AM on September 27, 2022 [1 favorite]

I guess I should say that it's not entirely clear to me that a failure in a massive, high pressure gas pipe is not enough to cause an explosion in and of itself, whether it's underwater or not. Anyway:

Ukraine operation?

Seems like this would be incredibly dumb. Keeping in the good graces of the West seems to me to be far more important to Ukraine's chance of success in this war than preventing income to Russia does.
posted by Flunkie at 9:22 AM on September 27, 2022 [2 favorites]

since the pipeline is on the ocean floor, there wouldn't really need to be precise targeting like with a missile. just a couple of bombs fused properly and dropped at the right spot. Ukraine operation? I don't see the motive for Russia, why would they take away their own cheap-gas leverage over europe.

I imagine it's really hard to drop things to a precise spot at the bottom of the ocean because of the potential multiple layers of oceanic current. The depth is 60-70m which is not "crazy unreachable" from either divers or submarines, so I guess there are easier/stealthier options for sabotage.
posted by WaterAndPixels at 9:22 AM on September 27, 2022

A Swedish seismologist says there's no doubt it was explosions, not seismic activity.
posted by Harald74 at 9:26 AM on September 27, 2022 [8 favorites]

Its not in Ukraine's interest to be the ones to cut the pipeline, but it is in their interest for the pipeline to be cut. Getting caught would definitely put them on the Germany's bad side. Jeopardize those Leopards as it were.
posted by Ansible at 9:36 AM on September 27, 2022 [2 favorites]

WaterAndPixels: maybe you can affect the gas mix upstream to make it more explosive and blow up the compressors?

For a gas/oxygen mixture to explode you need another ingredient: a spark, which you take every effort to keep away from flammable stuff in the first place. Sparks don't just happen by themselves somewhere in an underwater pipeline. Plus, the mixture needs to be at the proper ratio, which in free air would be about 4 to 16% methane, though when using pure oxygen as a means of sabotage that range will be different but still requiring a lot of oxygen if you consider how much gas is still in that pipe.
posted by Stoneshop at 9:37 AM on September 27, 2022 [1 favorite]

Could his new citizenship be to keep him in Russia in the event he decides prison-time in the US is more agreeable than a weird semi-imprisonment in Russia?

Isn't Snowden likely to face Aiding The Enemy charges (i.e., what the Rosenbergs were executed for) if ever in US custody?
posted by acb at 9:38 AM on September 27, 2022

For a gas/oxygen mixture to explode you need another ingredient: a spark

To me, at least, "explosion" does not necessarily mean "fire". Something under high pressure can "explode", at least in my view, just by the dint of the suddenly released power of the pressure.

Maybe this is not the correct usage in some sense? But anyway, is anyone actually sure that "explosion" in the tweet really does mean "explosives"? That's the kind of thing that I've been trying to get at.
posted by Flunkie at 9:44 AM on September 27, 2022

Ansible: since the pipeline is on the ocean floor,

Have you looked at a map? The NordStream pipes run through the Baltic sea, which is utterly not an ocean. Two of the leaks are about halfway between the Danish island of Bornholm and the east coast of Sweden, the other is some ten to fifteen km east of Bornholm. Depth at those locations is not even 100 m.
posted by Stoneshop at 9:51 AM on September 27, 2022 [2 favorites]

This story doesn't give any helpful answers because those quotes above are vague as hell, but since this is related and I found it neat back then:

I hung out with an underwater sound guy (DSP signals geek) around the Kirsk sinking and he explained that underwater explosions have a very tell-tale shape. Big pulse of the expanding bubble, bubble collapses to its minimum, re-expands for a second smaller pulse, repeat. So you apparently get this high-frequency (well, "high" compared to submarine landslides and seaquakes?) periodic ring. Apparently good systems can also tell the height above the seafloor because there will be a reflection of the big early pulses off the seafloor and that time gap gives you sonar (if you can estimate water temperature, angle, etc.).
posted by introp at 9:56 AM on September 27, 2022 [9 favorites]

NYTimes on the gas explosions
posted by mumimor at 9:56 AM on September 27, 2022

jackbishop: That's a good explanation of the "coincidence" of both failing simultaneously.

For values of 'simultaneously' that would allow simultaneous events to be 17 hours apart: 02:03 and 19:04.
posted by Stoneshop at 9:57 AM on September 27, 2022 [1 favorite]

I've been working from very early till very late, so I didn't hear anything till in the car on the way home. The atmosphere is pretty tense, I'll tell you.
posted by mumimor at 9:58 AM on September 27, 2022 [6 favorites]

Y’know, if Pornhub and Onlyfans were to ban all of their Russian and Russia-adjacent talents, the Russian economy would crater so hard and so quick Putin would have no option but to sue for peace.
posted by Thorzdad at 10:00 AM on September 27, 2022 [11 favorites]

Stoneshop, I guess if you managed to inject massive quantities of high pressure O2 (nordstream is 105bar) plus a metallic dust you'd surely generate sparks and a big fire if both hit a compressor at the same time, but that's almost a bond vilain type of plan, way too complicated, especially if you command military with actual submarines.
posted by WaterAndPixels at 10:04 AM on September 27, 2022

Between all of the carbon being released into the atmosphere due to this war, and now the methane from this leak, I wonder what the effect of this war is going to be on climate change, and if we will even be able to recover from it.
posted by Reverend John at 10:07 AM on September 27, 2022 [7 favorites]

WaterAndPixels: I don't [see] why they can't just shut it down

Russia already did that. Both pipelines were not in operation at the time of these incidents, but still contain gas.
posted by Stoneshop at 10:26 AM on September 27, 2022 [1 favorite]

Stoneshop: Russia already did that. Both pipelines were not in operation at the time of these incidents, but still contain gas.

I meant, I don't see why Russia would destroy it, it seems to massively restrict future options, although maybe this is not as difficult to repair as it may seem.

This article on Al-Jazeera, puts forward the hypothesis that this could be planned to coincide with the opening of the Baltic pipe, in a way to signal that this infrastructure is not safe and sew more chaos in the European gas market.

It might also be a way for Putin to burn the bridge behind him, even if somebody was to topple him and retreat from Ukraine, there's no restoration of that money stream any time soon, so less temptation to try a coup, since there's no payoff.
posted by WaterAndPixels at 10:46 AM on September 27, 2022 [5 favorites]

Europe Is Ready for a Winter Without Russian Gas, BNEF Says

Europe’s frenzied buying of liquefied natural gas means it’s likely to have enough of the power-generation fuel this winter to offset supplies from Russia, according to BloombergNEF.

The region may import almost 40% more LNG during the coming winter than in the prior year, while it may increase purchases next summer by about 14% to rebuild lost inventories, BNEF said in a report published Tuesday. Along with demand destruction from higher energy prices, those shipments are enough to cover a complete halt in Russian pipeline flows from Oct. 1, it said.

posted by gwint at 10:48 AM on September 27, 2022 [7 favorites]

Stoneshop: Have you looked at a map? The NordStream pipes run through the Baltic sea, which is utterly not an ocean

OMG sea floor then. Totally and completely different from an ocean floor. Thanks for clarifying that important distinction.
posted by Ansible at 10:57 AM on September 27, 2022 [4 favorites]

I don't see the motive for Russia

Reichstag Fire. Gulf of Tonkin Incident. Justification for Russia to escalate, in other words.
posted by SPrintF at 11:03 AM on September 27, 2022 [7 favorites]

Isn't Snowden likely to face Aiding The Enemy charges (i.e., what the Rosenbergs were executed for) if ever in US custody?

I don't believe Russia is or was then a declared enemy of the United States. An awful lot of corporate executives would go to jail if it were. Plus some senators and congressmen.
posted by srboisvert at 11:11 AM on September 27, 2022 [4 favorites]

WaterAndPixels: , but that's almost a bond vilain type of plan

There's definitely one at work here, even if he hasn't (yet) been seen stroking a white cat.
posted by Stoneshop at 11:14 AM on September 27, 2022

Russia is perfectly capable of escalating without any coherent explanation or strategy. And they really like getting paid for their gas. If it was a Reichstag type of deal I'd expect the disaster first and then the mobilization second.
posted by Ansible at 11:25 AM on September 27, 2022 [5 favorites]

I keep thinking it sounds like a Bond villain threat-- big ransom or more bombs.
posted by Nancy Lebovitz at 11:28 AM on September 27, 2022

Ansible: And they really like getting paid for their gas.

In roubles, when you're an 'unfriendly' country. Which those unfriendly Western countries by and large, although reluctantly at first, have refused. So no gas for them, hence no roubles for the Russian coffers.

Might as well sabotage those pipes then. Although at just 70m deep they're not unrepairable.
posted by Stoneshop at 11:35 AM on September 27, 2022

The fact, that in 2015 the Swedish authorities removed an underwater drone full of explosives right next from the pipeline suggests that this is right out from someone's big binder of scenario plans: Explosive-Laden Drone Found Near Nord Stream Pipeline
posted by kmt at 11:51 AM on September 27, 2022 [18 favorites]

I can't even: Radek Sikorski MEP: Thank you, USA.

No matter who you blame, no matter what 4d chess you are playing, this tweet is just monumentally dumb.
posted by kmt at 12:10 PM on September 27, 2022 [1 favorite]

Sikorski does have US connections dating back to hos journalist days in Afghanistan in the 80s (and is Boris Johnson's mate from uni) but I second the WTF.

(Definitely not Ukrainians alone, they don't have access to the Baltic. Probably not Poland, our navy is barely in existence.)
posted by I claim sanctuary at 12:45 PM on September 27, 2022 [2 favorites]

I don't really see why this would make sense from the point of view of *any* nation.
posted by Flunkie at 1:38 PM on September 27, 2022 [4 favorites]

Well, Konstantin from Inside Russia has left Russia. After months of watching his anxiety build, I'm glad he got out. Still, it's interesting -- he stated several times he would not be leaving. His testimonial is pretty interesting, IMO. He's a bit religious with his outlook, but most in Russia are. Main message runs about 40m, with chat responses after that.
posted by hippybear at 1:42 PM on September 27, 2022 [5 favorites]

AFP News Agency on Twitter

#BREAKING Pro-Russian officials claim victory in Zaporizhzhia annexation vote

Also, Kherson, Lugansk, and Donetsk.

No word on Kharkiv.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 2:19 PM on September 27, 2022 [1 favorite]

Any suspicious caterpillar-type tracks near the pipeline leaks?

Russian Tracked Submarines Baltic 1980s, Covert Shores, H I Sutton, 22 March 2019:

A spate of submarine incursions led to the suspicion that the Soviet Navy was operating tracked submersibles in Swedish waters. Track marks were found on the sea floor but the exact submarine(s) responsible has yet to surface.

In the 1980s, Mana (Swedish naval intelligence: Marinens Ananlysgrupp) wrote a report which included several sketches of the tracks and hypothetical illustrations of the types of submarines which could have caused them. They suspected that Russian diesel-electric submarines (WHISKEY, FOXTROT and ZULU Classes were among those operated in the Baltic) operated as host submarines for smaller midget submarines and combat swimmers. Some of the midget submarines were believed to be responsible for the parallel track marks.

posted by cenoxo at 2:20 PM on September 27, 2022 [3 favorites]

No word on Kharkiv.

THE SUSPENSE IS KILLING ME
posted by Flunkie at 2:23 PM on September 27, 2022 [11 favorites]

Bornholm, by the way, was NATO's easternmost presence during the Cold War, even east of the DDR-Poland border, and a radio listening post and radar station was built there. It was decommissioned in 2012, but the heightened tensions after Russia's occupation of Crimea had the Danish Intelligence Services decide to set up a modern replacement, even though the Baltic countries were now NATO's ear into Russia.
posted by Stoneshop at 2:24 PM on September 27, 2022 [4 favorites]

Daily Kos reports that Ukrainian forces appear to have cut off the last road out of Lyman with a surprise crossing near Bilohorivka, a fair way to the east. (The article buried that lede way down the scrolling.)
posted by Quasirandom at 3:01 PM on September 27, 2022 [1 favorite]

60 meters is 200 feet. Most average tourist dives cap out at 100 feet deep. But you absolutely can get to 200 with civilian scuba equipment, especially if you do the more 'technical diving ' like special mixtures of gasses. In that sense, I'd assume the underwater destruction is within pretty much every single countries capabilities.
posted by Jacen at 3:16 PM on September 27, 2022 [3 favorites]

My theory, unsupported by evidence, is that a Ukrainian ally destroyed the pipeline to stiffen Germany's spine ahead of this winter. It'd be super fucking rude to do that to an ally, but I'm not mad the pipeline is destroyed. Then again, I don't live in Europe.

I think some country had the following in their contingency plans:
IF Russia mobilizes, THEN blow up pipeline.
posted by ryanrs at 3:23 PM on September 27, 2022 [2 favorites]

I don't believe Russia is or was then a declared enemy of the United States. An awful lot of corporate executives would go to jail if it were. Plus some senators and congressmen.

Not to mention one well-known and widely disrespected FPOTUS.
posted by cenoxo at 3:24 PM on September 27, 2022 [2 favorites]

We won’t know for a while exactly what happened with the pipelines. The pipelines could have failed in some cascading manner because of a design flaw or maintenance issue. A control system malfunction by a hack, sabotage or operator error could have triggered some kind of water hammer like shockwave to pass through the pipelines. It could be individuals acting on orders of a country or on their own. Or it could even just be some random freak accident. Likely given the Russians it was just some colossal fuck up on their part; but we’ll never get any facts out of them.
posted by interogative mood at 3:27 PM on September 27, 2022 [2 favorites]

The only that's clear is the gas is off, it can't be turned back on, don't bother asking.
posted by ryanrs at 3:47 PM on September 27, 2022 [1 favorite]

Not being frivolous here, but someone need to go set those gas plumes on fire so they end up as CO2 in the atmosphere and not methane.
posted by hippybear at 3:53 PM on September 27, 2022 [6 favorites]

and post video pls
posted by ryanrs at 3:55 PM on September 27, 2022 [3 favorites]

60 meters is 200 feet. Most average tourist dives cap out at 100 feet deep. But you absolutely can get to 200 with civilian scuba equipment, especially if you do the more 'technical diving ' like special mixtures of gasses. In that sense, I'd assume the underwater destruction is within pretty much every single countries capabilities.

It’s divable depth wise on civilian scuba no doubt. No idea about the other conditions like visibility and currents and how much precise localisation data exists to find the pipelines, I don’t know if they show up on a depth finder/tow behind scanner.

Might be easier to use an underwater drone though.
posted by WaterAndPixels at 4:01 PM on September 27, 2022

Or just a home built depth charge
posted by mbo at 4:06 PM on September 27, 2022 [1 favorite]

I'm guessing a "home built depth charge" isn't going to be terribly accurate... unless it's part of "an underwater drone" or some such thing.

In any case, yeah, I am very ignorant and I could be waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay off on this, but it doesn't seem like this is necessarily doable only by a nation or something with resources similar to those of a nation. And regarding when I said before "I don't really see why this would make sense from the point of view of *any* nation"... there are many groups, or even individuals, on both(/several/many) sides of this whole mess, who I could see believing it would make sense.
posted by Flunkie at 4:15 PM on September 27, 2022 [1 favorite]

A fishing boat captain and a quarry foreman walk into a bar...
posted by ryanrs at 4:26 PM on September 27, 2022 [4 favorites]

CIA warned Berlin about possible attacks on gas pipelines in summer - Spiegel

A German government spokesperson declined to comment, Spiegel added.

posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 4:43 PM on September 27, 2022 [5 favorites]

The vulnerability to collective Europe to its dependence on Russian oil and gas has been a topic of discussion for a couple of decades at least. I've been watching it go on the whole time. The illusion of "globalization" meaning "countries won't attack each other because they are trade dependent" doesn't take into account the domination of a market sector by a single state actor.

This is not a new piece of information. The fact that it's being acted upon is a fulfillment of really simple, like, not even prophecy.
posted by hippybear at 4:54 PM on September 27, 2022 [8 favorites]

I've been watching it go on the whole time

Yeah, me too. It's been particularly depressing because, year-in, year-out, someone will say "dang, maybe it's a bad idea to rely so much on one place, especially one that doesn't like us much?" and a chorus will rise up singing in German "no, no, it's all fine we should definitely continue to deal primarily with Russia and we do not need any alternatives"

...like, guys, Putin wrote to say what he was going to do with natural gas in 1999? Right there on paper? And even the EU said they should diversify in 2014? Literally none of this should surprise anybody, and yet here we are with Gerhard Schröder still wandering around selling himself to anyone with a few kopecks to spare.
posted by aramaic at 5:40 PM on September 27, 2022 [14 favorites]

Sabotage Suspected In Undersea Gas Pipeline Explosions In The Baltic — The controversial Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines, which are supposed to carry Russian gas to Europe, have been breached., Thomas Newdick, The War Zone, Sep 27, 2022. Photos, maps, explosion details, and political side effects of the three leaks in two pipelines.
posted by cenoxo at 5:41 PM on September 27, 2022 [3 favorites]

Non-Credible Defense has theories:
Biden
North Korea
Russia
Ukraine
posted by interogative mood at 6:21 PM on September 27, 2022

The illusion of "globalization" meaning "countries won't attack each other because they are trade dependent" doesn't take into account the domination of a market sector by a single state actor.

This isn't a wholly incorrect take, though. You won't attack a neighbour if the gains from trade and peace are higher than what you could achieve through war, and trade relationships gives you leverage. But this assumes a rational state actor...

On the topic of trade leverage, there was a similar debate around live cattle trade between Australia and Muslim countries. In Australia, the law says cattle must be rendered unconscious or killed with a captive bolt gun fired into the brain before being slaughtered. However, Halal slaughter involves cutting the animal's throat and allowing it to die due to blood loss... which most Australians wouldn't know about, naturally. There was a scandal in 2011 where Animals Australia revealed with some rather graphic footage what happened to the roughly 3 million cattle we exported per year, which then led to calls to ban live exports. There is also the animal cruelty aspect of cramming animals into a cargo ship for months at a time - in one incident, thousands of cattle were cooked alive in summer temperatures. Animal losses on long voyages is almost a given.

One of the arguments AGAINST banning live exports was that, at least with Australia at the negotiating table, we could put pressure on the worst run abattoirs to improve their animal handling practices, rather than letting another country take over our role. If we left the industry altogether, we would have no say on how Indonesia runs their abattoirs at all, or how another country regulated its ships. Their argument is that we need to maintain a presence to enforce regulation, rather than exit it and let another party fill the void.

In any case, the government banned live exports as a populist move, but the courts reversed it saying the government had acted recklessly and capriciously. Live exports to Indonesia and Middle East have resumed as normal.

In a hypothetical alternate history, if Europe had never purchased natural gas from Russia, they might have built pipelines into China instead, and the war in Ukraine might be going quite differently now.
posted by xdvesper at 6:26 PM on September 27, 2022 [3 favorites]

if Europe had never purchased natural gas from Russia, they might have built pipelines into China instead

Does China has vast natural gas reserves that they aren't currently tapping for some reason? Because this town I live in has coal trains running toward the coast of Washington several times a day and I'm pretty sure it isn't for power plants in the hydroelectric-rich PNW.
posted by hippybear at 6:34 PM on September 27, 2022 [1 favorite]

China is switching to natural gas for electricity but they have a lot of coal usage in for home heating and in their steel mills, on top of existing steam and power plants. It will take them decades
posted by interogative mood at 6:57 PM on September 27, 2022 [1 favorite]

Video: Nord Stream 2 Gas Leak Prompts Warning to Baltic Shipping — German authorities believe a "targeted attack" is a possibility, The Maritime Executive, Sep 26, 2022:

Danish authorities have detected a leak from the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline off the island of Bornholm and have issued a warning to shipping to stay clear. The largest leak is about one kilometer in diameter, according to the Danish Defence Command.

For reasons not currently known, the pressure in both the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines dropped sharply overnight. Operator Nord Stream AG confirmed that three of the four parallel pipes that make up Nord Stream 1 and 2 were damaged.

Seismologist Björn Lund of Uppsala University told Swedish outlet Expressen that a blast registering 2.3 on the Richter scale was detected in the area of the pipeline damage at 1904 hours Monday night. Earthquake tracking consortium NORSAR recorded a similar event on its public portal at the same time.

Authorities in Germany, which hosts the receiving terminals for all four pipes, are investigating the situation as a possible intentional act. Given the simultaneous damage, "we can't imagine a scenario that isn't a targeted attack," an individual familiar with the German government's concerns told Tagesspiegel. "Everything speaks against a coincidence."…

More in the article; New Scientist video (YouTube).
posted by cenoxo at 7:22 PM on September 27, 2022 [2 favorites]

I don't want to out myself as a clown-shoes non-expert, but having a little experience working with Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) I can say blowing a seafloor pipeline would be a pretty trivial mission for this technology.

Take a low end, off the shelf AUV unit like the Teledyne Gavia. You wouldn't need the deep water models but you'd want all three batteries, so it'd be about 3 metres long and 30 cm in diameter and weigh about 100-150 kg.

Unlike ROVs these are completely untethered and have no umbilical cord to a mother ship.

With three batteries and minimal sensors this unit can travel at 4 knots for 20 hours underwater, so a conservative range of about 100 to 150 km.

The Gavia unit can handle a "science bay module" of approximately 39 cm length and 20 cm diameter. A cylinder of this size has a volume of 9.1 litres. C4 explosive has a density of about 1.5 g/cc so you could put about 14kg of C4 into this science module, which is otherwise empty, since this is not a scientific mission

The unit has an accurate inertial sensor navigation, and can can also track in real time using a small sonar unit and or a lidar unit. It can georeference by surfacing and connecting to dGPS for a cm-scale location confirmation. However, it is likely not necessary to surface, especially if you have accurate co-ordinates of the pipeline.

A major civilian use-case for AUVs is seafloor pipeline monitoring - they are programmed to follow a vector path representing the pipeline and can do so very, very accurately (sub-metre). When they surface, they can send data or, more commonly, get lifted out to change batteries and download data. The unit I have used plugged into a USB cable.

Programming these to follow a geo-referenced vector file is trivial which, if you're Russia, is a file that you have. Programming them to ID the pipeline through video and sidescan is slightly harder but is a common use case for this technology and there are off-the-shelf commercial modules designed to optimize this. Indeed, I would be very surprised if there wasn't a routine ~weekly AUV inspection of the entire Nordstream system.

The cost of these units is hard to come by, but I estimate the base model Gavia with minimal science instruments and <5>two people from a small boat, say a workboat with a small crane, like a shrimp or crab boat.

Dropping one into the water in the Baltic somewhere above the pipeline, and asking it to dive to the bottom, find the pipeline, and swim westwards tracking the pipeline would mean it could travel for almost 24 hours and ca 150km along the pipeline.

If you have filled the science bay with 14kg of C4 and ask the drone to plunge from say a cruising height of 10m above seafloor to 1m above at the last moment and then detonate, you could successfully replicate what we see in the Baltic. (Since water is noncompressible, the shock wave would be very effectively transmitted to the pipeline). This would be difficult to trace back to origin due to the distance from launch, the time gap since launch, and the number of small boats capable of launching this device.

Keep in mind that much larger AUVs with much greater range and payloads are available, with the very largest being in the 5-10 million dollar range.

Anyway, if a person with minimal expertise and half a million dollars (and a muscular friend), could do this, then any state actor could.
posted by Rumple at 9:09 PM on September 27, 2022 [36 favorites]

OH! I was sitting here utterly confused for a few minutes. Hippybear, I meant that "they might have built pipelines into China instead" meaning Russia would have been selling their gas to China, instead of selling it to Europe. And then the West would have one less economic lever to pull against Russia to influence its foreign policy.

Not that Europe would have bought the (nonexistent) gas from China!

On the China topic, they have been trying to wean themselves off coal because of the pollution problem. Gas and coal aren't really substitutes for each other anyway, due to different costs / emissions profiles.
posted by xdvesper at 9:14 PM on September 27, 2022 [1 favorite]

I'm a bit confused by the discussion here, which I guess goes to show that geographical proximity still means something in communication. There doesn't seem to be much doubt here in Denmark that this is Russian sabotage. When our PM is hesitant to say a much, it is because of the seriousness implications of saying it out loud.
The pipelines were turned off, and the gas that is coming up to the surface is residual gas that was sitting in the pipes.
It does seem weird that the Russians would do this, but the Russians and before them the Sovjets often use weird ploys like this in order to confuse. In this case, I guess they could want to suggest that Ukraine or friends of Ukraine sabotaged the pipeline in order to anger Germans and Poles, though that makes absolutely no sense at all for a number of reasons.
Another, more likely and more menacing intent could be to threaten the new Baltic pipeline from Norway to Poland that opened in the weekend. By sabotaging the shut-down lines they co-own, they are demonstrating their ability to damage the new line that they don't own. If they went directly for the Baltic Pipe, it would probably be an act of war, against NATO countries.
Their wider goal is to get the European population so desperate for energy and peace that we pressure our governments to make peace with Russia and let go of Ukraine. None of that is on the books in the EU right now, and the EU was already en route to a total reorganization of its energy systems, (Which is how the Baltic Pipe can open in the same year as the war began) but the Italian election result is worrying.

I'm trying to figure out why Russia is doing all this, instead of rationally working to create a new economy that is not completely based on income from fossil fuels. But my main learning from the past 21 years is that old white men in power are deeply irrational.
posted by mumimor at 11:48 PM on September 27, 2022 [33 favorites]

WaterAndPixels: It’s divable depth wise on civilian scuba no doubt.

And technical divers, like those working on underwater pipe lines, can work at this depth no problem.
posted by Stoneshop at 12:01 AM on September 28, 2022 [1 favorite]

I feel I should apologize for my spelling and grammar above, and also make it clearer that Baltic Pipe opened officially yesterday in Szczecin, Poland, with representatives from the Polish, Danish and Norwegian governments. The sabotage is a very clear threat.
I'm obviously a bit unnerved, as is our government.

Way back when the Ukraine war began, I asked that the wargaming could be reduced or given its own space, and tbh, I normally don't even visit these threads, because I felt Bornholm would be the first site of escalation. Then, I imagined something even worse than this, but an attack on Baltic Pipe could be that.
posted by mumimor at 12:38 AM on September 28, 2022 [20 favorites]

The whole history of Russian/Soviet u-boat incursions in Swedish waters is kind of fraught. No less an authority than Caspar Weinberger admitted that many if not all the alleged sightings in the Stockholm archipelago in the 1980s were NATO exercises, including the so-called "tracked vehicle" traces. Fanciful U-boat spotting is a favorite activity along the Swedish coast, and folks love dreaming up scenarios of intrigue and deception. (A few hundred meters from our cabin, on crown-owned land, rests a disused dingy the neighbors insist belongs to the Russian embassy, which is used for fishing excursions and, it is imagined, picking up spies delivered by submarine and measuring the depths of the passage.)

If you really feel like falling down a rabbit hole, read up on former prime minister and "medium-sized dog" Carl Bildt. His career really took off fear-mongering about Soviet subs, and later in his career he sat on the board of an oil company invested in Gazprom before taking on a role as foreign minister, while dealing with approval of the NordStream 1 pipeline. This dude is a shameless self-promoter and gets put on US panel shows all the time. I shared a plane with him on election day 2016 and later saw him blathering on CNN or something.

As for who is responsible for the sabotage I would think we should ask who would be most interested in removing that chip from the bargaining table, especially as winter (which a fresh FPP suggests will be colder than usual) approaches. An interesting coincidence that the above-mentioned aquatic drone should be reported on just now.
posted by St. Oops at 2:10 AM on September 28, 2022 [7 favorites]

Baltic Pipe opened officially yesterday in Szczecin, Poland, with representatives from the Polish, Danish and Norwegian governments. The sabotage is a very clear threat.

I was surprised that this 'coincidence' wasn't often mentioned in the major news articles I read.

The thing with Nordstream is that it was never needed to bring gas to Germany. There were enough pipelines over land that went through Ukraine and Poland to do so. Russia/Putin wanted to circumvent those countries — especially Ukraine for now obvious-to-everyone reasons. As soon as Nordstream II was complete, Russia invaded Ukraine under the assumption Ukraine was now no longer interesting to Germany and the greater West. It could pump gas directly to Germany, the oligarch economy could keep profiting.

The pipeline is political infrastructure that is now useless to Putin. Germany is moving away from Putin's gas. So yeah, blow it up they did to show Poland/Norway/Germany how things are going to be. Because the three M's: Macho, Mafia, Mania.
posted by UN at 3:18 AM on September 28, 2022 [24 favorites]

Just to underline that this is a mob-style threat towards Denmark and Poland, the pipeline goes from the Kaliningrad enclave to North Germany, and there are plenty of places an attack could have been posited if this was say, an Ukrainian covert mission, including in international waters, German waters and Russian waters. (That Ukraine should be responsible is seriously an absurd idea, but I'll give it a few seconds here). But is specifically in Danish sea territory.
posted by mumimor at 3:30 AM on September 28, 2022 [13 favorites]

Tucker Carlson is convinced Biden did it, not Putin. Which for me is another notch in the “Putin did it” side, since this constipated yacht-faced asswipe is so talented at pushing the talking points most convenient to Russia.
posted by glaucon at 3:41 AM on September 28, 2022 [23 favorites]

Sorry, I was inaccurate above, because facts are coming in very rapidly and from many sides: the attacks are in international waters, but the Danish economic zone. Except for one in the Swedish economic zone and one in international waters.
I noted that a Russian spokesperson on the radio only mentioned Denmark, which is why I first wrote inaccurately, but which also underlines the intent.
posted by mumimor at 3:46 AM on September 28, 2022 [3 favorites]

"International Waters" - but at the same time you can almost say "technically" because it's a little like standing in the door to the kitchen throwing a wet sponge at your brother and then saying, "I wasn't in the kitchen throwing wet sponges at my brother again!" when your mom yells at you. OK, a little round-about way of saying the Baltic bottle-necks there and the boundaries of any one country (Sweden, Poland, Denmark, Germany) are very close to their not-direct neighbor ... It was a clear act of aggression against "Western Europe."

What I can't really parse is exactly who does, really, benefit from this? Russia at some point will want to turn the taps back on again, won't they? Then again the Lukoil Chairman did just die of an unfortunate and wholly unforeseen defenestration event... Maybe it was radical environmentalists - because that is who, ultimately wins. All of us who aren't an oil/gas corporation. Shove the 'green agenda' faster along (which I can get behind.)

As cold and expensive as the winter gets I will not believe the EU gov's will turn their back on Ukraine now - measures have been taken to mediate the worst of it and Putin has made it abundantly clear he is unreliable.
posted by From Bklyn at 4:45 AM on September 28, 2022 [2 favorites]

What I can't really parse is exactly who does, really, benefit from this? Russia at some point will want to turn the taps back on again, won't they?

Like UN said, the Northstream lines are useless now, and thus could be repurposed for a small but very menacing demonstration. Whenever this all ends, Europe will have reorganized its energy system away from fossil fuels and away from dependency on Russia.

Putin is finding it hard to scare us all sufficiently by just hinting at nuclear weapons. Probably because an attack on Ukraine with tactical nuclear weapons will unleash an all-out counterattack on Russia from NATO and perhaps Pacific allies. I don't know if this is what will happen, but I assume it, because can't have madmen flinging nuclear missiles about.

On the other hand, the attacks on the Nordstream lines doe seem to have some effect. When one of your main TV stations has DON'T PANIC as a front-page headline, someone is panicking, at least at that TV-station. I don't think it will influence policy in a way that will benefit Russia, contrariwise, but you know, Bush and his men believed we would be welcomed in Bagdad with flowers. In that sense, Putin is no more irrational than is the norm for powerful old white men.
posted by mumimor at 5:09 AM on September 28, 2022 [9 favorites]

As for who is responsible for the sabotage I would think we should ask who would be most interested in removing that chip from the bargaining table,

The problem with that sort of thinking is that it's too easy to invent motivations, and probably too hard to estimate the odds of someone doing something stupid.
posted by Nancy Lebovitz at 5:40 AM on September 28, 2022 [12 favorites]

Poland blew up the pipeline hoping Germany would activate Article 5 so they could march on Moscow.
posted by ryanrs at 7:18 AM on September 28, 2022 [1 favorite]

It was President Lukashenko in the Baltic Sea with a depth charge.
posted by Reverend John at 7:26 AM on September 28, 2022 [29 favorites]

probably too hard to estimate the odds of someone doing something stupid.

Someone somewhere fucked up their checklist, and no one in the world will ever entirely believe it.
posted by Etrigan at 8:08 AM on September 28, 2022 [3 favorites]

Aaron Schwartzbaum:

I don't see evidence #Putin is in trouble yet, but there is something different about dissatisfaction and protest this time. A quick thread on #Russia🧵

TL;DR the protests now share a universal concern + there's a different calculation of perceived risk (death on the front)
posted by cendawanita at 8:35 AM on September 28, 2022 [11 favorites]

Mystery solved.

Kremlin dismisses 'stupid' claims Russia attacked Nord Stream

MOSCOW, Sept 28 (Reuters) - The Kremlin on Wednesday said claims that Russia was somehow behind a possible attack on the Nord Stream gas pipelines were stupid, adding that the United States had opposed the pipelines and its companies had made big profits supplying gas to Europe.

posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 10:09 AM on September 28, 2022 [4 favorites]

So one theory is that NATO has comprehensive evidence it was Russia, and has been waiting for the Kremlin to make a statement before they release it, so as to make Putin look stupid.
posted by ryanrs at 11:28 AM on September 28, 2022 [1 favorite]

The most likely explanation is ghosts.
posted by Grangousier at 11:30 AM on September 28, 2022 [1 favorite]

P-P-P-Pirate Ghosts?!?
posted by The Pluto Gangsta at 11:38 AM on September 28, 2022 [6 favorites]

It was Atlantis.
posted by Pendragon at 11:43 AM on September 28, 2022 [3 favorites]

You've got to be kidding me.

Meduza: Kremlin to hold back on illegal annexation of Ukrainian territories.

According to independent Russian media outlet Meduza, the annexation will be postponed as it now won't have the desired "PR effect" on the Russian population that is dissatisfied with mobilization.

From the replies:

But 236% if the electorate voted for it!

posted by confluency at 12:02 PM on September 28, 2022 [20 favorites]

It's near impossible to get any form of vessel through Danish territory without Denmark knowing. Heck, there are thousands of civilian Danes who enjoy watching ships go by and communicating about it in Internet forums.
The Danish straits are narrow, longish and relatively shallow, and not at all similar to the Swedish archipelago where you can go in and out again.
In other words: if you want to sabotage pipelines in the Baltic Sea, you can't get through Denmark without permission. So you would have to drive overland in a white van with your six sea-drones. This would be impossible for Ukraine, because the EU borders are tightly controlled.
For the US, doing something like this without permission from Denmark/EU would result in a pretty spicy diplomatic crisis, and if they were tacitly admitted, I don't think the Danish and Swedish governments would be releasing any information beyond what was absolutely necessary.
posted by mumimor at 12:03 PM on September 28, 2022 [8 favorites]

The Danish and Swedish press conferences weren't very enlightening. So until we know more I will just entertain the idea that it's some sort of hazing prank Finland and Sweden had to do together to join NATO.
posted by St. Oops at 12:35 PM on September 28, 2022 [7 favorites]

Agreed, the Danes are in it with the Poles. They're planning to split Kaliningrad after Russia falls.
posted by ryanrs at 1:02 PM on September 28, 2022 [2 favorites]

Kaliningrad is almost 100% ethnically Russian. I can imagine the Danes and the Poles afterwards saying

"Why don't you just take all of it? It seems a shame to cut it up."

"Well, yes, it does, but we couldn't possibly. You take it."

"Nonono, you've been more than generous about this. I insist you take it."
posted by fatbird at 1:22 PM on September 28, 2022 [13 favorites]

Russia calls UN Security Council meeting over NordStream sabotage

Meanwhile, half of the gas has escaped from the two Nord Stream pipelines. The pipelines are expected to be completely empty by Friday. According to authorities in Denmark, the total amount of gas that will be released from the pipelines is almost equivalent to a third of the country's annual carbon emissions.

'Forever inaccessible'

It is possible that the damage extends beyond the climate. According to German government sources to Der Tagesspiegel, the gas pipelines are expected to be damaged to the extent that they become permanently unusable; the result of all the salty sea water now flowing into the pipes and causing corrosion.

(as usual, translated from Dutch using deepl)
posted by Stoneshop at 1:23 PM on September 28, 2022 [12 favorites]

And technical divers, like those working on underwater pipe lines, can work at this depth no problem.

This whole operation is pretty much the US Navy SEALS' job description. Not seeing a motive though. Whoever it was didn't have to come by sea through Denmark. They could have come by air and jumped out of a plane with their stuff. It could have been anyone, even a non-state terrorist org. Which would leave an "explanation" if the Baltic pipe gets blown up next.

Coincidentally, this from ISW's assessment yesterday: Russian officials may attempt to reframe their invasion of Ukraine and occupation of soon-to-be-annexed Ukrainian territory as a “counterterrorism operation.”
posted by ctmf at 1:29 PM on September 28, 2022

Whoever it was didn't have to come by sea through Denmark. They could have come by air and jumped out of a plane with their stuff.

Whoever wanted to come through any other direction than through international waters in the Baltic Sea would have to pass through EU territory. The Baltic Sea is completely surrounded by EU nations, except for Kaliningrad. There is no way, by sea, land or air to enter the Baltic Sea except through EU or Kaliningrad. Which everyone relevant already knows. This was not meant to be literally disputable. It was meant to be disputable in the sense that no-one right now can demonstrate evidence that this was an act of aggression by Russia, but everyone knows that it was a threat from Russia, in the fine tradition of "Congratulations, that is a very nice Baltic pipeline you built. Such a pity if something bad should happen to it".
And of course, it's an extra bonus if the rubes believe conspiracy theories that the US might have attacked a European pipeline.
posted by mumimor at 1:46 PM on September 28, 2022 [7 favorites]

ctmf: They could have come by air and jumped out of a plane with their stuff.

Oh yes, that would be way less observable than some random trawler passing trough Danish waters, some time in the past two or three weeks.

If one has passed through Danish waters at all, because vessels out of Kaliningrad or St.Petersburg don't have to.
posted by Stoneshop at 1:49 PM on September 28, 2022 [2 favorites]

The NordStream pipelines are nearby the new Norwegian pipeline at the location where the explosions happened. This has lead to speculation that the Russians accidentally blew up the wrong pipeline
posted by interogative mood at 1:51 PM on September 28, 2022 [14 favorites]

The NordStream pipelines are nearby the new Norwegian pipeline at the location where the explosions happened. This has lead to speculation that the Russians accidentally blew up the wrong pipeline

Given the demonstrated level of Russian competency over the past seven months, I'm gonna just go ahead and accept this as true via Occam's Razor.
posted by Flunkie at 1:55 PM on September 28, 2022 [15 favorites]

Another thing: though our intelligence services have obviously failed to surveil the pipelines (maybe because Denmark did not itself use the gas, but only provided access to the area. Also it seems that the surveillance of the pipelines is in private hands), surveillance has been on high alert since the outbreak of the Ukraine war. If it was hard to get through Danish territory before, it has been much harder this year.
No one is going to fly to Bornholm or take the car ferry with a load of weaponized drones. It is a ridiculous proposition. The only real option is to sail through international waters, and I can't imagine any other Baltic country than Russia doing this.
The Russians made another threat at Denmark in June, where all the national politicians were gathered at the annual Peoples' Assembly in Bornholm, and they flew fighter jets over the assembly.
posted by mumimor at 2:05 PM on September 28, 2022 [10 favorites]

The NordStream pipelines are nearby the new Norwegian pipeline at the location where the explosions happened.

Nearby? NordStream 1 and 2 pass EAST of Bornholm, some 15 to 20km at its closest. Baltic Pipe passes SOUTHWEST, and from the point where the explosion closest to Bornholm occurred Baltic Pipe would be some 45 to 50km further west with close to half that distance being dry land.

Russian navigation and targeting may be shitty, but it's not that shitty
posted by Stoneshop at 2:17 PM on September 28, 2022 [8 favorites]

'Honestly, they're all going to die' What Russian soldiers who have already fought in Ukraine think about Putin's mobilization effort — Meduza

But even while we were still being driven across the border in the Ural [truck], I realized that we were the occupiers, we were the fascists. I [...] was sitting in the truck bed, watching the scenes going by. What we were leaving behind. All of those destroyed villages in Kharkiv. I realized we were actually destroying a country. Along with its civilian population.

You’d go through a village and children would run out onto the road and gesture after you: either “smoke” or “eat.” I just couldn’t wrap my head around it. The world was upside down; I felt empty inside. You realize all of your life so far was fiction. A soap bubble.

posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 2:44 PM on September 28, 2022 [28 favorites]

Maybe it was the Children of Kali...
posted by chavenet at 3:38 PM on September 28, 2022 [3 favorites]

NYT: ‘Putin Is a Fool’: Intercepted Calls Reveal Russian Army in Disarray
[Contains disturbing content about murdering and corpses, and generally being in the Russian army]

The New York Times has exclusively obtained recordings of thousands of calls that were made throughout March and intercepted by Ukrainian law enforcement agencies from this pivotal location.

Reporters verified the authenticity of these calls by cross-referencing the Russian phone numbers with messaging apps and social media profiles to identify soldiers and family members. The Times spent almost two months translating the recordings, which have been edited for clarity and length.

...

> No one told us we were going to war. They warned us one day before we left.

> We were all going for training for two or three days.

...

Soldiers complain about strategic blunders and a dire shortage of supplies. They confess to capturing and killing non-combatants, and they openly admit to looting Ukrainian homes and businesses. Many say they want to terminate their military contracts, and they rebut the propaganda broadcast by Russian news media back home with the stark realities of the war around them.
posted by polecat at 3:45 PM on September 28, 2022 [15 favorites]

Whoever wanted to come through any other direction than through international waters in the Baltic Sea would have to pass through EU territory. The Baltic Sea is completely surrounded by EU nations, except for Kaliningrad.

and St Petersburg ...
posted by mbo at 3:54 PM on September 28, 2022 [2 favorites]

And Russian-sovereign territory on Åland
posted by acb at 3:59 PM on September 28, 2022 [1 favorite]

The explosions are extremely beneficial to Russia from an internal messaging standpoint. Given that they’re having trouble motivating their soldiers and the new draftees, it’s very important for them to have something to point to to show that Russia is under attack.
posted by puffinaria at 4:35 PM on September 28, 2022 [1 favorite]

it’s very important for them to have something to point to to show that Russia is under attack

Like an M1 Abrams on a blue & yellow flatbed?
posted by ryanrs at 4:40 PM on September 28, 2022

Having been to Aland a few times, I was surprised by the mention of Russian-sovereign territory there, as I thought it was demilitarized and in Finland's hands since 1921. So I investigated, and it seems that Russia indeed has a consulate there still. As well as some other property owned by the Russian government...
posted by brambleboy at 5:28 PM on September 28, 2022 [1 favorite]

And Niki Proshin, another YouTuber that has been posted here, has also left Russia now.
posted by hippybear at 5:49 PM on September 28, 2022 [5 favorites]

Foreign Policy's Jack Detsch on Twitter

NEW: Russia has redeployed up to 80 percent of troops from its borders on the Baltic states and Finland to plug losses in Ukraine, officials tell @RobbieGramer & me

European officials said there could be just 6,000 🇷🇺 troops left in Kaliningrad & Baltics

posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 5:51 PM on September 28, 2022 [3 favorites]

Re: pipeline speculation above - this is pretty great.

European officials said there could be just 6,000 🇷🇺 troops left in Kaliningrad & Baltics

…sounds like we’re one disclosure that none of Russia’s nukes actually work from “never get involved in a land war in Asia” becoming “it’s free real estate!”
posted by Ryvar at 6:23 PM on September 28, 2022 [3 favorites]

…sounds like we’re one disclosure that none of Russia’s nukes actually work from “never get involved in a land war in Asia” becoming “it’s free real estate!”

The most destabilizing thing that has happened, way more destabilizing than the actual invasion itself, is how weak Russia inadvertently showed itself to be. The revelations just keep coming and coming.
posted by Dip Flash at 6:37 PM on September 28, 2022 [14 favorites]

Kremlin dismisses 'stupid' claims Russia attacked Nord Stream

As folks like to say: Don't believe anything until the Kremlin denies it.
posted by Kabanos at 8:31 PM on September 28, 2022 [7 favorites]

Interesting, the the sex ratio almost catches up to 1:1 by 35-40yo cohort, so that's birth year 1982 - 1987.

Was there sex selection going on? Epigenetics? Many (many) more young women perished (or left) in the '60 through 70's?

But yeah, the 30-40yo cohort look like the tallest weed/ flower.

There are certainly a lot of (even more) babushkas in Russia's future.
posted by porpoise at 8:38 PM on September 28, 2022

Record methane leak flows from damaged Baltic Sea pipelines, Associated Press, Jan M. Olson & Patrick Whittle, Sep 27 2022:

COPENHAGEN, Denmark (AP) — Methane leaking from the damaged Nord Stream pipelines is likely to be the biggest burst of the potent greenhouse gas on record, by far.

The Nord Stream pipeline leaks that were pumping huge volumes of methane into the Baltic Sea and atmosphere could discharge as much as five times as much of the potent greenhouse as was released by the Aliso Canyon disaster [in California, 2015 (Wikipedia)], the largest known terrestrial release of methane in U.S. history. It is also the equivalent of one third of Denmark’s total annual greenhouse gas emissions, a Danish official warned Wednesday.

“Whoever ordered this should be prosecuted for war crimes and go to jail,” said Rob Jackson, a Stanford University climate scientist. Two scientists looked at the official worst case scenario estimates provided by the Danish government — 778 million cubic meters of gas — for The Associated Press. Jackson and David Hastings, a retired chemical oceanographer in Gainesville, Florida each calculated that would be an equivalent of roughly half a million metric tons of methane. The Aliso Canyon disaster released 90-100,000 metric tons….

More in the article.
posted by cenoxo at 9:05 PM on September 28, 2022 [12 favorites]

🇷🇺Lots of pictures & videos of not-quite-young men being drafted in the "partial mobilization". Why? Well, cohort of 20-29-year-olds is VERY small. "Normally" they would be the backbone of any military. But not in 2022 in Russia.

I've speculated that this was a core reason for the invasion of Ukraine in the first place (given that Putin thought it would be an easy take-over, not a prolonged war). The Ukraine pyramid is also thin at the bottom, but it is not as top-heavy as in Russia.
Obviously there are also natural ressources and industries in Ukraine, but Russia's biggest problem is the rapidly shrinking population and future "pension burden"
posted by mumimor at 10:42 PM on September 28, 2022 [3 favorites]

A fourth leak has been detected in one of the NordStream pipes

A fourth gas leak has been found in the Baltic Sea.

It lies between the two previously known ones on Nord Stream 1 - but originates from Nord Stream 2.

At the same time, seismologist Björn Lund does not rule out the possibility that another detonation may have taken place in the area.

Three leaks from the gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea became known on Monday.

One at Nord Stream 2, just southeast of Bornholm, in the Danish economic zone.

Two on Nord Stream 1 further to the north-east, both near Simrishamn. These leaks are 6,083 metres apart. The one closest to the coast is in the Danish economic zone. The one further out to sea is located in the Swedish economic zone and measures more than 950 metres in diameter at the surface. The pictures published by the Coast Guard were taken at this leak.

Meanwhile, seismologist Björn Lund of Uppsala University reported already on Tuesday that two detonations had been recorded in close proximity to the leaks.

The first, at 02.03 on Monday night, occurred near the Nord Stream 2 leak, southeast of Bornholm. It was measured at 1.8 on the Richter scale.

The second explosion took place near the two leaks at Nord Stream 1 near Simrishamn. It was recorded at 19:04 on Monday and had a magnitude of 2.3 - more than five times as strong as the first blast.
Prime Minister had not been reached by the latest.

When Magdalena Andersson held her press conference at 9pm on Tuesday evening, she said that there had been two probable detonations and that there were three leaks. One of them was in the Swedish economic zone, she stated.

At a further press conference at 6pm on Wednesday, both the Prime Minister and Johan Norrman, the Coastguard's head of operations, reiterated that there were three leaks.

Obviously, they had not then been reached by the latest information.

Already on Tuesday, the Coast Guard had discovered another leak - a fourth.

According to the Swedish Maritime Administration, it is located between the two leaks on Nord Stream 1 near Simrishamn - but originates from Nord Stream 2, which runs parallel. According to the Swedish Coast Guard, it is located in the Swedish economic zone and measures 200 metres in diameter.

(the diameter of the leaks as reported is clearly not the size of the hole in the pipe but of the plume at the surface)
posted by Stoneshop at 12:31 AM on September 29, 2022 [6 favorites]

"The Swedish Maritime Administration has not issued a new navigational warning after the discovery of the fourth leak, the existence of which SvD was the first to report on Wednesday evening."

Somewhat superfluous, as the newly discovered leak is inside the warning zones for the two nearby ones.

Södra Östersjön

261841 UTC SEP
SVENSK NAV VARN 144/22

SÖDRA ÖSTERSJÖN. NORDÖST OM BORNHOLM.
GASLEDNINGEN 'NORD STREAM' HAR SKADATS I POSITIONERNA 55-33.4N 015-47.3E OCH 55-32,1N 015-41,9E. MINSTA REKOMMENDERADE PASSAGE AVSTÅND ÄR 5 NM OCH 1000 M I HÖJD.

261152 UTC SEP
SVENSK NAV VARN 143/22

GASLEDNINGEN ’NORD STREAM 2’
HAR SKADATS VID PSN 54-52.6N
015-24.6E. EXPLOSIV
GAS FINNS I OMRÅDET. MINSTA
REKOMMENDERADE PASSAGEAVSTÅND
TILL LÄCKAGEPLATSEN
ÄR 5 NAUTISKA MIL OCH
1000 METER I HÖJD

posted by Stoneshop at 2:22 AM on September 29, 2022 [1 favorite]

Executions? One would suffice.

Sadly, this is probably the only way this shit stops any time soon. I don’t say this to be flippant. It’s pretty clear that, no matter how demoralized Russia’s military becomes, no matter how enormous the losses, they will do Putin’s bidding to the last soldier standing. And, frighteningly, possibly beyond. I can only imaging he is surrounded by the most blindly loyal of loyal security.
posted by Thorzdad at 3:07 AM on September 29, 2022 [1 favorite]

It's being reported by the various journos but here:
Oliver Carroll:
New. Propaganda chief Vladimir Solovyov now confirming Putin will sign annexation treaties with the four puppet governments ]he installed. The “ceremony” will take place at 3pm in the Kremlin. If Crimean history anything to go by expect an edict from Putin some time today.
posted by cendawanita at 3:15 AM on September 29, 2022

maybe the pipeline stuff deserves its own thread at this point
posted by glonous keming at 4:18 AM on September 29, 2022 [5 favorites]

European officials said there could be just 6,000 🇷🇺 troops left in Kaliningrad & Baltics

It's proof as good as any that a Nato invasion is not something the Kremlin seriously think is on the table. Any half-awake Russian analyst have a long time ago concluded that Nato does not have the force mix, posture or inclination to roll over the Russian border.
posted by Harald74 at 4:44 AM on September 29, 2022 [5 favorites]

Thorzdad: It’s pretty clear that, no matter how demoralized Russia’s military becomes, no matter how enormous the losses, they will do Putin’s bidding to the last soldier standing.

I take it you mean that the higher echelons will keep telling Putin that their grunts will fight to the last man standing*; the reality is that those increasingly don't. And retreating (or 'regrouping') without taking their equipment, ammo and other supplies means they have shown to prefer personal safety over military effectiveness. And so by being less effective they will be less motivated to keep standing.

And, frighteningly, possibly beyond. I can only imaging he is surrounded by the most blindly loyal of loyal security.

Those organisations are self-selecting for loyalty, but loyalty is rarely disconnected from perks (social status, financial, influence) gained by being part of that group of loyalists. If those perks start vanishing there's no telling how much of them will stay on till the end.

* crouching in a trench is slightly better, but only in the short term.
posted by Stoneshop at 4:56 AM on September 29, 2022 [5 favorites]

Possibly worth treating with some scepticism, especially as Belarus only has 62K active military personnel (344k reserves).

@PavelLatushka*

Our sources report: #Lukashenko agreed to deploy 120K soldiers [🇷🇺] during November-February. [🇧🇾] undertakes to supply 100K mobilized soldiers in addition. Lukashenko is preparing for a full-scale war. The West must issue an ultimatum he cannot refuse

* Belarusian opposition politician living in Poland.
posted by Buntix at 5:29 AM on September 29, 2022

Buntix: Our sources report: #Lukashenko agreed to deploy 120K soldiers [Russian flag] during November-February. [Belarussian flag] undertakes to supply 100K mobilized soldiers in addition.

So Lukashenko will be providing staging points for 120k newly-minted soldiers from Russian minority populations, with 100k of his own army (so at least half of them reservists; they'll keep some regulars back for any eventualities) for support.

Sounds like a plan. Not a very good one, though.
posted by Stoneshop at 5:52 AM on September 29, 2022 [3 favorites]

European officials said there could be just 6,000 🇷🇺 troops left in Kaliningrad & Baltics

This is good information for Russian mobilization dodgers to know. Head for the Baltics boys!
posted by srboisvert at 5:55 AM on September 29, 2022 [3 favorites]

Nord Stream pipeline leaks map — Denmark, Sweden view Nord Stream pipeline leaks as 'deliberate actions', DW, 27.09.2022.
posted by cenoxo at 5:55 AM on September 29, 2022 [1 favorite]

Maxim Katz - Here's your comrades, soldier! | Allies of the Russian army (English subtitles)
posted by Meatbomb at 7:07 AM on September 29, 2022 [2 favorites]

Do you think we might be the baddies?"
posted by Nancy Lebovitz at 8:14 AM on September 29, 2022 [2 favorites]

Kings And Generals have been extra busy, releasing a new video in their series today: Ukrainian Kharkiv Counter-Offensive [27m]
posted by hippybear at 8:27 AM on September 29, 2022 [2 favorites]

Putin Always Chooses Escalation:
What the Russian elite think of Putin's mobilisation and what they do on the verge of the most dangerous phase of the war.

All of our sources in the elite — who all spoke on the condition of anonymity — said the military conflict will only escalate in the coming months. Yet none can predict what will happen if Russia loses.
posted by Kabanos at 9:08 AM on September 29, 2022 [5 favorites]

Q: What doesn't buzz or fit in anyone's ass?
A: A Russian made ass buzzer.
posted by Meatbomb at 10:11 AM on September 29, 2022 [8 favorites]

Do you think we might be the baddies?

You know, I think Wagner revel in being the baddies...
posted by Harald74 at 11:18 AM on September 29, 2022 [3 favorites]

Harald74: You know, I think Wagner revel in being the baddies...

I can't wait for another Wagner's Götterdämmerung enacted in the Kremlin, some ferocious intrigue and infighting with the 'gods' all ending up dead and their 'valhalla' on fire.
posted by Stoneshop at 12:03 PM on September 29, 2022

they will do Putin’s bidding to the last soldier standing. And, frighteningly, possibly beyond.

Are you suggesting they are bound to serve him in the afterlife? Because while I agree that an Aragorn/Oathbreakers scenario would be frightening (and suck for the good guys) it would also be fucking metal as hell.
posted by Ryvar at 12:55 PM on September 29, 2022 [3 favorites]

European officials said there could be just 6,000 🇷🇺 troops left in Kaliningrad & Baltics

Meanwhile, Poland is handing out Potassium Iodide tablets.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 1:04 PM on September 29, 2022 [4 favorites]

OK so maybe it is time for a timeout.
For someone who actually lives in the reality of the Russian threats, war-games are not very entertaining. I haven't flagged anyone, because I'd rather put it out here in the open.

Let me explain. I very much oppose Russian aggression and if I have to, I will support whatever is needed to stop it. I support the integrity and independence of the Ukrainian nation, and I accept and support everything my country does to that effect.
I am shocked by the current attack on the gas pipelines, and I support whatever my government chooses to do in response.

Right now, September 29th 2022, I hope we will not go into war against Russia. I do not feel we have a clear objective for that. I strongly believe that we can crush the Russian defence system effectively and rapidly, but I have no idea what comes next, and I don't think anyone else does either. Not because I think I am very smart or because I have special access, but because what is happening now is so idiotic and unprecedented that no-one has prepared for it.
posted by mumimor at 1:45 PM on September 29, 2022 [36 favorites]

In feeling, we are almost back at February - checking flights, asking ourselves what the signal is, the event that tells us to pack up and go. (and _do_ we? What about family? It’s hideous math). It’s March again but with the very significant difference that we have seen Putin’s army collapse under its own weight - and he is apparently not the mighty, inconceivably clever war strategist we had all braced ourselves for.
I don’t know what he’ll do, where the pressures of his pretend world will send him, but somewhere someone mentioned (very persuasively, I found) that Putin and his co-hort live as much in Europe as Russia, and though they want to win, they don’t want to ruin their second home (where their children are in schools, where their money is parked) - that destroying that Europe would be a big step too far. For themselves, on a personal level.
I hold to this. Somewhat perversely I think the destruction of Nordstream(s) will be ultimately net positive for Europe - Germany had already (what’s the word?) ‘taken over’ the company that ran the pipeline’s terminus in Germany - and has been very busy planning energy contingencies. Maybe it’s all over but the shouting - and “all” here means the reorganizing Europe post-Russian-Gas-as-political-cudgel -?
Without maybe being all the way to optimistic, I am not so very pessimistic.
posted by From Bklyn at 2:28 PM on September 29, 2022 [10 favorites]

“OK so maybe it is time for a timeout.
For someone who actually lives in the reality of the Russian threats, war-games are not very entertaining. I haven't flagged anyone, because I'd rather put it out here in the open.”

I think that now that Putin has explicitly threatened to use nukes, the US is using back-channels to warn the Kremlin not to use nukes, and worldwide media outlets (like CNN) are reporting that Putin threatened to use nukes, that NATO is trying to figure out what he means and intends, and is obliged to explain to readers the difference between a tactical and strategic nuclear weapon, the point has been reached when it's both appropriate to discuss the risk of nuclear weapons in this thread and deeply absurd to argue it's egregiously speculative.
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 2:32 PM on September 29, 2022 [15 favorites]

The reason we're avoiding talking about nuclear warfare in the Ukraine threads hasn't ever been because we think it's impossible.

It's because other MeFites, especially those who live in or near the area currently at war, have asked clearly and repeatedly for the rest of us to avoid speculating about their deaths. There's a tendency for conversations -- mostly by North Americans -- in these threads to airily skip over the part where the use of even a single low-yield nuke would kill thousands and thousands of people and then start asking questions like "And how would that affect industry in Western Europe?" "What would happen between U.S. and China?"

You always have the option, if you truly need an outlet to discuss the use of nukes in the war, to gather up some links and start a new thread for that purpose. But we -- and I include myself in this because I'm a USian -- have been asked several times to keep it out of here.
posted by The Pluto Gangsta at 3:02 PM on September 29, 2022 [36 favorites]

Yes, please keep the nuclear speculation elsewhere.
posted by Dip Flash at 3:19 PM on September 29, 2022 [5 favorites]

Also, while I agree it can be clumsy, past threads have shown we can allow for the use of nuclear weapons as a contingency and/or a failure condition without going further than that. It hasn't been all that much of a constraint in talking about developments in the war and the politics around it (and the nuclear saber has been rattled more than once).
posted by snuffleupagus at 4:08 PM on September 29, 2022 [2 favorites]

There was a story about 12 minutes ago saying risk is high while saying overall the risk is low. Not much there.

Ukraine-Russia war: US army doctor and wife charged with Russia spying.
posted by clavdivs at 4:20 PM on September 29, 2022 [2 favorites]

Mark Hamil is now an official ambassador for the Ukrainian Army of Drones, helping to raise funds to defend Ukraine.

The Force will be with him. Always.
posted by Pirate-Bartender-Zombie-Monkey at 4:24 PM on September 29, 2022 [19 favorites]

While we're putting things out in the open I really really appreciate the news, perspectives, opinions and analysis from those of you in Europe close to where these things are actually happening. Knowing it's coming from someone on the ground with much more familiarity with the history and society and everything is the most valuable thing in these threads to me. Followed by the various folks with some insight into some of the technical stuff and deeper/wider history (underwater drones and baggage from the Romans, who knew!) and links to news.

Thank you all and I hope to see more of your insights.

We've been over the nuclear thing a hundred times, the mods made a call, just abide by it.
posted by VTX at 4:25 PM on September 29, 2022 [17 favorites]

Using "reading the fig leaves" to describe kremlinology is utterly brilliant. Dunno if you actually meant tea leaves but I don't care, it's perfect.
posted by Horkus at 5:12 PM on September 29, 2022 [31 favorites]

There's chatter that the tactical situation in the Lyman area is getting dire for the Russian forces. One of the people I follow on Twitter (@RALee85) who does a fair amount of OSINT reportage has been tracking various Russian Telegram channels. It seems some of those channels have been lit up for the past little while with reports that the Ukrainian forces are on the verge of encircling the Russian grouping at Lyman, possibly as soon as tonight or tomorrow.
posted by mhum at 5:55 PM on September 29, 2022 [4 favorites]

Understanding Russia’s referendums in Ukraine — The Kremlin has used the tactic before as it held a hastily called referendum in Ukraine’s Crimea region in 2014., Al Jazeera, 20 Sep 2022:

• Why are the referendums happening?
• Who wants a referendum?
• How much territory could Ukraine lose?
• What’s the significance?
• Is the vote legitimate?
• How is Russia’s troop mobilisation related?
• What does Ukraine say?
• What happened in Crimea?

Details in the article.
posted by cenoxo at 5:56 PM on September 29, 2022 [2 favorites]

I find these threads are best when they discuss what is currently happening. Any kind of speculation - nuclear or otherwise - adds a lot of noise to the signal.
posted by Horselover Fat at 6:47 PM on September 29, 2022 [19 favorites]

The Study of War's George Barros on Twitter

We're now seeing breaking Russian reports from credible sources that Ukrainian forces surrounded Lyman.

These reports didn't make the 3:00 pm EST cutoff time for today's @TheStudyofWar maps, but we will be sure to include all verified changes into tomorrow's maps.

There were reports earlier that the Russians had no operational plan for withdraw from the area, so this could net a significant number of troops killed/captured.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 6:51 PM on September 29, 2022 [1 favorite]

Without maybe being all the way to optimistic, I am not so very pessimistic.

The Estonian defense strategy in case of Russian invasion is basically, let's try to hold on for a couple of days until NATO arrives.

I have friends in the Defense League (volunteer guerilla fighters, basically), and now their jokes are basically, "when Russia invades, let's conquer St. Petersburg first."
posted by Pyrogenesis at 10:59 PM on September 29, 2022 [18 favorites]

Russia to annex 4 Ukrainian regions after so-called 'referendums' — President Vladimir Putin is expected to officially announce the illegal annexation of the four Ukrainian regions in a ceremony on Friday, more than 7 months since the invasion was launched., DW, 30.09.2022:

During an event to be held Friday at the Kremlin, Russia will annex four occupied regions of Ukraine in an act condemned by the global community and in violation of international law.

President Vladimir Putin is expected to announce the incorporation of the four Russian-occupied regions — Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia — during a ceremony that, according to Moscow, will see the Ukrainian regions become part of the Russian Federation.

Putin on Thursday signed decrees recognizing the supposed independence of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, mirroring a decree signed in February regarding the Ukrainian regions of Luhansk and Donetsk. "I order the recognition of the state sovereignty and independence" of the regions of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, situated in southern Ukraine, Putin said in the decrees….

More in the article.

Additional background information at Wikipedia > 2022 annexation referendums in Russian-occupied Ukraine.
posted by cenoxo at 3:25 AM on September 30, 2022 [2 favorites]

The Norwegian Police Security Service consider the threat of Russian attacks on Norwegian oil and gas infrastructure to be high: – Russia seems to be under pressure and in an isolated position. This can lead to them taking on bigger risks, says assistant security chief Hedvig Moe
posted by Harald74 at 3:44 AM on September 30, 2022 [5 favorites]

Whatever Al Jazeera may have forecast on September 20, nothing fit to be called a referendum has taken place. Instead we have seen gunmen going door to door and coercing residents to support annexation. Other residents have been rounded up on the streets with dissenters placed on a list for future retaliation. The Kremlin has indeed done this before, in 1940, when citizens of the Baltic republics were coerced to vote for Communist puppets, and persecuted or executed for failing to comply.

The purpose is not to bring the partially occupied oblasts under the Kremlin's nuclear shield, as strikes have already taken place at Saky airfield and elsewhere within wholly occupied Crimea. The purpose is not to facilitate deployments to the partially occupied oblasts as mobiks have already been sent to and captured in Kharkiv Oblast, where no such charade took place. The purpose is to compel hostages to announce that they love Big Brother.

While collaborators make a show of counting blank ballots to demonstrate how Ukrainians under occupation have no voice, the displaced citizens of Snihurivka have voiced a consensus the Kremlin will not tally.

No territory is being annexed today. Ukraine's borders have not changed. Snihurivka is Ukraine. Kherson is Ukraine. Zaporizhzhia is Ukraine. The temporarily occupied territories of Donetsk, Luhansk, and Crimea all remain Ukraine, regardless of the words used today to describe them.
posted by backwoods at 3:45 AM on September 30, 2022 [37 favorites]

Russia could equally claim to annex the south of France and threaten defensive nuclear strikes unless French occupation forces leave immediately.
posted by acb at 4:23 AM on September 30, 2022 [8 favorites]

Russia could equally claim to annex the south of France

You get the impression he's taken a page from TFG's playbook -
"I annexed them with my mind. I can do that. With my mind."
posted by From Bklyn at 4:39 AM on September 30, 2022 [5 favorites]

Harald74 > The Norwegian Police Security Service consider the threat of Russian attacks on Norwegian oil and gas infrastructure to be high…

Google English translation of that article.
posted by cenoxo at 5:11 AM on September 30, 2022 [1 favorite]

Watch Live: Putin hosting signing ceremony for annexation of four areas of Ukraine — YouTube SkyNews (w/English translation & CC), Sep 30 2022.
posted by cenoxo at 5:47 AM on September 30, 2022 [2 favorites]

Putin is dangling a bad peace in front of Western Europeans knowing it's their fucking catnip. The Central Europeans and Baltics know what's going on but I fear the resolve of Scholz. Not like it matters much because Germany have barely given jack shit this whole war but still I'm not going to be surprised when he starts his own call to pizza.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 5:58 AM on September 30, 2022 [3 favorites]

What the German Gov has delivered.

However 'meager' it might seem, Germany has a very modest defense force because, well because the Nazis, and what they've donated is ... I don't know what the same ratio would be out of the US armory: but it can be hard to understand the vast (seriously, crazy vast) store the US has at hand.
posted by From Bklyn at 6:10 AM on September 30, 2022 [11 favorites]

Well, we have a different set of Nazis these days.
posted by acb at 6:12 AM on September 30, 2022 [4 favorites]

I really can't see anyone in Europe even starting to acknowledge Putin's fake elections or the annexation of Ukraine lands, and I don't know why anyone would think so.
posted by mumimor at 6:13 AM on September 30, 2022 [9 favorites]

I really can't see anyone in Europe even starting to acknowledge Putin's fake elections or the annexation of Ukraine lands, and I don't know why anyone would think so.

I really hope you're right but if there's one thing the past 80 years have taught us it's that liberals and neoliberals will take an ordered bad peace over a war for justice 99% of the time.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 6:19 AM on September 30, 2022 [5 favorites]

Wow, the number of press conferences being called right now in Europe...
posted by Harald74 at 6:58 AM on September 30, 2022 [1 favorite]

Zelenskyy’s response: Fuck you we’re joining NATO and we’re using the fast track option.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 7:08 AM on September 30, 2022 [18 favorites]

It would be funny if someone in Ukraine started mailing ballots to sections of the Russian Federation, to see if they would like to be annexed by Ukraine.
posted by newdaddy at 7:09 AM on September 30, 2022 [15 favorites]

Would Ukraine's accession to NATO immediately place Russia at war against the entire NATO alliance, or would the current hostilities be grandfathered in?
posted by acb at 7:18 AM on September 30, 2022 [1 favorite]

Would Ukraine's accession to NATO immediately place Russia at war against the entire NATO alliance, or would the current hostilities be grandfathered in?

Ukraine doesn't get to join NATO until they control all of their territory and they aren't at war so it's kind of moot. But the second the war is over they can accede and forever more be under the NATO umbrella.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 7:45 AM on September 30, 2022 [12 favorites]

KyivPost on Twitter

⚡️@ZelenskyyUa: We will not negotiate with #Putin. We will negotiate with another President of Russia.

posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 8:12 AM on September 30, 2022 [13 favorites]

NATO press conference in 45 minutes, topic not announced.

you should be able to stream it on www.nato.int
posted by ryanrs at 8:15 AM on September 30, 2022 [6 favorites]

The Guardian's correspondent Shaun Walker during Volodja's anti-Western rant speech:

If you were playing a "classic Putin phrases" drinking game you'd be in intensive care by this point.

Also

Putin, who is literally announcing a land-grab, has complained about his "neocolonial" foes about ten times so far.

posted by Stoneshop at 8:27 AM on September 30, 2022 [7 favorites]

Ukraine tells Russia to appeal to Kyiv if it wants encircled troops freed

Zelenskyy is a better man than I. If I had invaders trapped in my land I'd want to show them the same hospitality that the rashists displayed in Ilovaisk.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 8:51 AM on September 30, 2022 [2 favorites]

Streaming: NATO Press Conference

it has started
posted by ryanrs at 9:00 AM on September 30, 2022

Your Childhood Pet Rock: If I had invaders trapped in my land I'd want to show them the same hospitality that the rashists displayed in Ilovaisk.

There's a tactical aspect apart from the purely humanitarian: if word gets around that Russian troops who surrender are treated humanely you lower the barrier for other troops to get out a piece of nominally-white cloth and do the same, instead of figuring "I'll be dead anyway, best to take some khokhols with me".
posted by Stoneshop at 10:21 AM on September 30, 2022 [16 favorites]

Kyiv Post's Jason Jay Smart on Twitter

Ukraine 🇺🇦 will allow Russian 🇷🇺 Prisoners of War (POWs) to call home, every few days, for up to a quarter hour, to keep their mental health normal.

And, no doubt, to ensure that word gets around that POWs are well treated.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 10:41 AM on September 30, 2022 [19 favorites]

William Spaniel produces a video Cluedo game in which he parades each suspect for the Nordstream gas line sabotage in turn. The Russians seem to come out ahead in the betting stakes: but it is quite hard to determine whether the specific Russians might be Putin, belligerent hardliners or anti Putin partisans.
posted by rongorongo at 10:49 AM on September 30, 2022 [1 favorite]

So what did NATO have to say? Went to the stream, but it seemed to be over.
posted by Windopaene at 10:52 AM on September 30, 2022 [1 favorite]

Not just that, but combat against an already overpowered enemy is simply wasteful if you could just get them to surrender instead. There is always the risk your side will take casualties if you fight, no matter how overwhelming your advantage. As the attacker, you're operating at the limits of your logistics, and you will be expending ammo and fuel which you might need later against a stronger foe. You would be destroying equipment you could have captured. You are also expending time, the most precious of all resources. Russia's routed troops need time to reconstitute, and mobilized troops need time to arrive. In the meantime is a window to advance and recapture as much land as they can.
posted by xdvesper at 10:58 AM on September 30, 2022 [4 favorites]

Here's the transcript of the NATO press conference.

Excerpt:

This is the largest attempted annexation of European territory by force since the Second World War.

Another 15 percent of Ukraine’s territory.
An area roughly the size of Portugal.
Illegally seized by Russia at gunpoint.

The sham referendums were engineered in Moscow.
And imposed on Ukraine.
In total violation of international law.

This land grab is illegal and illegitimate.
NATO Allies do not, and will not, recognise any of this territory as part of Russia.
We call on all states to reject Russia’s blatant attempts at territorial conquest.

posted by MrVisible at 11:10 AM on September 30, 2022 [24 favorites]

Well, not mincing words...

And good for NATO to call out this bullshit, but, yikes. Notches things we aren't supposed to talk about up a bit.

Mother Russia needs a hero to end this craziness. Where is a good balcony window when you need one?

And with another large surrounding of Russian positions? Jesus, do they not remember Stalingrad and the subsequent surrounding of the German 6th Army?

It really feels like Putin is running out of options. Which, makes me uncomfortable...
posted by Windopaene at 11:35 AM on September 30, 2022 [1 favorite]

Putin also rambled on about how the US set the precedent for using Nuclear weapons. I don’t want to be a doomsayer or alarmist but we are now as dangerously close as we’ve been since the Cuban missile crisis.
posted by interogative mood at 11:38 AM on September 30, 2022 [6 favorites]

Mother Russia needs a hero to end this craziness.

They don't need another hero. All they want is life beyond the Thunderdome.
posted by hippybear at 11:38 AM on September 30, 2022 [13 favorites]

The AFU 🇺🇦 is storming #Lyman as we speak, from 4 directions. Main area of attacks is NORTH/NORTHWEST. The reports of offensive activities were from 1,5 hour ago.
posted by clavdivs at 12:25 PM on September 30, 2022 [4 favorites]

rongorongo: The Russians seem to come out ahead in the betting stakes:

Another possible accomplice has sailed into the row of suspects: the Russian training tall ship Sedov (article in the Dutch newspaper NRC).

You can rent it out for dinner for 200 people and there is a cinema auditorium. But is the Sedov perhaps leading a double life? On websites like MarineTraffic, which show ship movements, you could see how the Sedov kept to the east of Bornholm island during the explosions, either idling or sailing slowly.

Monday at 7.04pm, the time of the second explosion, it sailed into Sweden's Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). On Tuesday, it sailed parallel to the gas pipelines, before even sailing straight over them on Wednesday evening. The Sedov was then less than ten nautical miles (18.5 kilometres) within sight distance of the leak in Nord Stream 1.

That's ... quite peculiar, to say the least. Especially since the Swedish Sjöfartsverket had already declared a 5 nautical mile avoidance zone around both leaks. They still kept well outside of that, but I wouldn't be sailing towards it anyway unless I had a good reason to do so.

The map on that page shows the Sedov's position on several moments earlier this week (ma = monday, di = tuesday, wo = wednesday, do = thursday).
posted by Stoneshop at 12:29 PM on September 30, 2022 [7 favorites]

That Dutch article notes "“For example, by dropping divers, or by having a submarine hide under its hull?”"

Per my long comment above (which got partially mangled by bad brackets) commentators and journalists don't seem to be aware at all of how small and portable Autonomous Underwater Vehicles are these days. If you are going to launch within 10km of the known explosion sites, per the Sedov tracking, you could very likely get away with something like this or this or even this Danish one. You wouldn't even need a crane.

I also should have noted that you could launch your modestly bigger (150kg) AUVs from shore anywhere within 100 to 150 km of the explosion sites - no boat needed.

If they did use the Sedov that seems risky since while notionally a harmless training sailing ship, it is also an active military vessel of the Russian Navy which would seem to have implications in terms of International warfare.
posted by Rumple at 1:22 PM on September 30, 2022 [7 favorites]

[nafo] Let's strap some LCS modules to the USS Constitution and go kick its ass [/nafo]
posted by snuffleupagus at 1:32 PM on September 30, 2022 [5 favorites]

Rumple: If they did use the Sedov that seems risky since while notionally a harmless training sailing ship, it is also an active military vessel of the Russian Navy which would seem to have implications in terms of International warfare.

Russia doesn't seem to be overly concerned about such piddling details as long as they can flatly deny them. The Sedov, while being a naval training ship, isn't an actual warship (or rather, doesn't overly appear to be one). But given that a Russian spokesperson (in an article I read, but can't find in the browsing history on this laptop) immediately pointed out the recent NATO exercises in the area, with the involvement of at least one US vessel, planes, and divers, they do look like wanting to deflect attention.
posted by Stoneshop at 1:59 PM on September 30, 2022 [2 favorites]

If it was a Naval tug, let's say, or a Naval supply ship, it would be unambiguously a fair target in a war, I wouldn't say it's quaint appearance disqualifies the Sedov from that genre. However I agree that such niceties may be irrelevant to the Russians, while still having international legal implications which may matter to other nations.
posted by Rumple at 2:16 PM on September 30, 2022

Sinking it would be justified, but capturing it would be funny.
posted by ryanrs at 2:18 PM on September 30, 2022 [1 favorite]

I know conjecture is discouraged in these threads, but I fail to see what Moscow gains from destroying its own pipelines to the point of irreplaceability. Unless it's simply to give Europe the message "we aren't supplying you with gas ever again", which is a project Europe was already working on to begin with.

(And shame on Europe for having been warned for like 20 years about this situation and pretending like it would never happen "because globalization".)

The pipeline destruction is one of the more truly curious parts of this war to me thus far.
posted by hippybear at 2:32 PM on September 30, 2022 [1 favorite]

There's some Sun Tzu quote about always leaving the enemy an escape route, so they're constantly deciding whether to fight or to run, and they're weakened by the unknown decision. Encirclement forces them to fight or die, so it's more dangerous. Maybe Ukraine expects them to surrender and needs more prisoners for trade, or they're trying to send a message to Russia.
posted by meowzilla at 2:34 PM on September 30, 2022 [2 favorites]

hippybear: I fail to see what Moscow gains from destroying its own pipelines to the point of irreplaceability. Unless it's simply to give Europe the message "we aren't supplying you with gas ever again", which is a project Europe was already working on to begin with.

"You can't fire me... I quit!"
But with a lot more macho posturing and explosions.
posted by Too-Ticky at 2:36 PM on September 30, 2022 [5 favorites]

Well, the Sedov may be better maintained than their actual warships at this point.
posted by automatronic at 2:36 PM on September 30, 2022

I think conjecture is generally alright, but conjecture about nuclear war isn't welcome.
posted by Nancy Lebovitz at 2:44 PM on September 30, 2022 [2 favorites]

I was going to say, given Russian Naval quality, that if the Sedov was used, it was less a 'canvas is a stealth material'; and more along the lines of 'those wooden boat nerds are the only ones dedicated and skilled enough to navigate to an exact position and back'.
posted by bartleby at 2:44 PM on September 30, 2022 [3 favorites]

Stoneshop: But given that a Russian spokesperson immediately pointed out the recent NATO exercises in the area

To clarify, this was just after the first discovery of the leaks, even before the fourth one became evident as well as before the Sedov matter was picked up.

Anyway, activity in international waters (but inside the Swedish respectively Danish Exclusive Economic Zones), Russia (if it was them) apparently destroying pipelines they themselves partially own would be the primary cause for investigation; I'm unsure if international maritime law would provide for seizure of a vessel suspected of involvement.
posted by Stoneshop at 2:58 PM on September 30, 2022

The pipeline destruction is one of the more truly curious parts of this war.

Not really, massive methane release in the environment on a system shutdown now exposed to corrosion/rust.

sounds on spot for Spetnatz®

The Sun-Tzu is very interesting. encirclement indeed does create a more desperate foe, perhaps Tzu would know the disposition before that point.
Timed with the today's events, NATO press conference, everyone wagging a finger, "nuclear threat"and actual annexation as mentioned above, So, encirclement of Russian troops, if "overwhelmed", WELL blah blah hence the call home campaign etc. brilliant move and is certainly giving Ukraine the upper hand when it comes to pows. a few days ago there's a small little contested pocket north of Lyman supposedly in Russian hands but it's pointed out before that map was published before the new map was ready, pocket being a break out force. couple questions I would have is how much actual material is in Lyman, troop strength, vehicles, fixed weapons, supplies. also checking satellites or Google maps or whatnot for recent fortifications. chatter.

The Sedov that is Saber rattling!
posted by clavdivs at 3:13 PM on September 30, 2022

hippybear: Unless it's simply to give Europe the message "we aren't supplying you with gas ever again",

The NordStreams aren't the only gas pipe lines from Russia to Central/West Europe, just the only two that don't transit another country.
posted by Stoneshop at 3:16 PM on September 30, 2022 [2 favorites]

I fail to see what Moscow gains from destroying its own pipelines to the point of irreplaceability. Unless it's simply to give Europe the message "we aren't supplying you with gas ever again", which is a project Europe was already working on to begin with.

It's a warning shot. Europe wasn't using the Nordstream gas lines any more, but are desperately dependent on lines from Norway which also cross the Baltic and would be just as easy to destroy.
posted by acb at 3:20 PM on September 30, 2022 [9 favorites]

Lyman Front Map (September 30)
Ukrainian Forces 🇺🇦 liberated the villages of Stavky and Drobysheve Lyman is now 90% fully encircled and Ukrainian Forces have the only route leaving Lyman under🔥fire control. Battles are occurring near Torske and Zarichne to cut off Russia’s last remaining exit. (7 hrs)

If correct the only line the Russians have to retreat is way east. real slim like.
"Lyman is surrounded! The Ukrainian army is already in Yampil. The Russian army is trying to escape.”

That's pretty much encirclement.

I agree with acb, a warning shot and message. Russians use to control the price of gas now" they can control the gas" through destructive means.
posted by clavdivs at 3:38 PM on September 30, 2022 [4 favorites]

NATO Says All Signs Point To Sabotage Of Baltic Undersea Pipelines — Swedish authorities say they have found another ruptured section along the two Nord Stream pipelines following apparent attacks this week., Joseph Trevithick, The War Zone, Sep 29, 2022:

Swedish authorities say they have identified a fourth breach along sections of the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines that run under the Baltic Sea between Russia and Germany. The exact circumstances behind the ruptures remain unknown, but NATO has now joined the European Union (EU) in concluding that they were most likely the result of some kind of deliberate attack. Readers can find out more about the details that had already emerged in our preceding coverage of the incidents.

The newly announced rupture is the second to be detected along the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. There are two other known ruptures in the Nord Stream 1 pipeline. The first breaches were detected on Monday following a series of large underwater explosions. At the time of writing, neither the EU nor NATO, or any of their member states independently, appear to have formally accused any actor of culpability, though fingers have increasingly been pointing at Russia….

More in the article (also scroll down for comments).
posted by cenoxo at 3:42 PM on September 30, 2022 [1 favorite]

Ukraine Shuts Down Zaporizhzhia.
posted by clavdivs at 4:08 PM on September 30, 2022 [2 favorites]

Putin likes to claim his war is defensive in nature, which is absolutely the most ridiculous thing ever of course. If somebody other than the Russians actually did blow up the pipeline, this is pretty much the first thing he could probably claim with any credibility was an actual attack against Russian interests.

His mobilization is going absolutely terribly, there's protests and stories about Russians escaping, fleeing because they don't want to fight in ukraine. Nobody believes the results of his so-called completely faked referendum. If Russia bombs the pipeline it was a fairly and offensive way to attack the rest of the world, while using it as justification that the Russians are super persecuted. Just another attempt to obfuscate the mass murder of ukrainians and Russian conscripts. And that another large concentration of Russian forces is about to be defeated.
posted by Jacen at 4:11 PM on September 30, 2022 [3 favorites]

Per my long comment above [..] commentators and journalists don't seem to be aware at all of how small and portable Autonomous Underwater Vehicles are these days. If you are going to launch within 10km of the known explosion sites, per the Sedov tracking, you could very likely get away with something like this or this or even this Danish one. You wouldn't even need a crane.

That's true, but what underwater vehicles does Russia actually have to work with, and what state are they in?

Because I remember when the Kursk went down in 2000, and it turned out neither of the two Russian DSRVs were actually serviceable. They had to cannibalise one to fix the other, and even when they actually got one down there, it couldn't make a seal to the escape hatch because its gaskets were perished, and God knows how many poor bastards died an awful death whilst Putin refused to let the British and Norwegians help until it was too late.

Those DSRVs were brand new when the USSR collapsed, and by 2000 they were already fucked from lack of maintenance. If 22 years ago they already couldn't manage to scrape together working equipment for an actual nuclear submarine disaster, what the hell is the state of things now?
posted by automatronic at 4:29 PM on September 30, 2022 [3 favorites]

These are not big complex vehicles on the scale of the DSRVs you're talking about. Look at the links Rumple posted above. They're being easily carried one handed. You could probably order one from a manufacturer on Alibaba.com.

There are probably high end hobbyist drones that could do you can buy on Amazon and have at your door before Monday.

It's WELL within the capabilities of Russia or like, a couple of guys with $20,000. More than anything else it just seems like the Russian government being dicks and looking for something of NATO's they can smash and this was the first thing they thought of that they could get away with.
posted by VTX at 5:13 PM on September 30, 2022 [4 favorites]

strongest argument against Russia is that it worked, imo
posted by ryanrs at 6:41 PM on September 30, 2022 [6 favorites]

Here's an alternate theory for the pipeline explosions - essentially methane hydrate build up in an inactive but pressurised pipeline, and incompetence in trying to clear the blockage from one end
posted by mbo at 6:54 PM on September 30, 2022 [5 favorites]

Regarding the alternate theory: I don't have anywhere near enough knowledge to comment on the viability of the proposed mechanism, but: If this were the cause, shouldn't there have been people on the German end been saying, hey, we really need to get together with the Russians to depressurize these things in a coordinated manner or else they'll explode?
posted by Flunkie at 7:05 PM on September 30, 2022 [5 favorites]

Ok, yeah. This alternate theory of "Russia, but stupid" is more plausible than "Russia, but competent".
posted by ryanrs at 7:22 PM on September 30, 2022 [6 favorites]

I suspect they need to remain pressurised otherwise at that depth they'll collapse - but you could do that with dry nitrogen - I too can't comment on the viability of the explanation, but incompetence over planned evil with no obvious upside seems plausible
posted by mbo at 7:23 PM on September 30, 2022

The linked article seems predicated on the idea that depressurization is the thing that should have been done, but should only be done from both sides simultaneously, and very slowly...

The Recommended Best Practice to clear a hydrate plug is a vvveeerryyy slllooowww depressurisation from BOTH ENDS, SIMULTANEOUSLY.

How slowly, you ask? For a pipeline the size of Nordstream we’re talking weeks.

... and while you can depressurize from a single end...

However, if you are a national gas company with institutional paranoia, a Nationalised aversion to looking weak or asking for help, and a Good Idea Fairy fueled by vodka — well, you can depressurise the pipe from one end.

... doing so is fraught with catastrophic danger:

Yeah. Boom. Big bada-boom.

posted by Flunkie at 7:31 PM on September 30, 2022 [1 favorite]

I think that depressurization from both ends is required to safely remove a hydrate plug, probably not to sea level pressure though, probably just to the point where it starts to sublime, which it will do slowly, and if both ends are depressurized to the same level when it comes loose it wont turn into a bullet .... on the other hand if you wait long enough to have 2 plugs then the gas in between will stay pressurized and you're screwed - equally if you have a couple of plugs, and one bursts the pipe then sea pressure might cause the second to go off some time later

(all of this is speculation with little real evidence)
posted by mbo at 7:40 PM on September 30, 2022

Russian Underwater Drone With Manipulator Arm For Seabed Operations, H. I. Sutton, Covert Shores, 29 September 2022:

A single underwater floodlight filters through the water. Like a one-armed Cyclopes, a metal manipulator arm emerges from the murk, kicking up sand as it probes the seabed. On its nose, a small Russian flag lays claim to the item between its pincers.

Manipulator arms, with claws which can grab or move items on the seafloor, are commonly associated with remote operated vehicles (ROVs) and crewed submarines. But Russia has developed an AUV (autonomous underwater vehicle) with one.

This is one of the more interesting underwater vehicles developed in Russia, the LI AUV (Intervention Autonomous Uninhabited Underwater Vehicle)….

More details in the article. Think of the physical possibilities, but don’t forget the political probabilities.
posted by cenoxo at 7:41 PM on September 30, 2022 [1 favorite]

Full text of Putin’s speech at annexation ceremony, [no author/translator/source is cited], Mirage News [About Us], 1 Oct 2022:

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday presided over a ceremony at the Kremlin to annex four Ukrainian regions partly occupied by his forces. Below is the full text transcript of his speech:

His live speech was about 40 minutes long.
posted by cenoxo at 8:43 PM on September 30, 2022

The Guardian comparing Putin's annexation speech to the one he gave after grabbing Crimea: Putin’s annexation speech: more angry taxi driver than head of state

After all, in his March 2014 speech, Putin explicitly ruled out seizing more territory: “Don’t believe those who try to frighten you with Russia and who scream that other regions will follow after Crimea … We do not need this.”

And yet, here they were, back in the St George Hall, applauding as four more Moscow-appointed puppet leaders signed over their regions to Moscow.

posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 9:19 PM on September 30, 2022 [7 favorites]

I'm expecting that we will never get good evidence for who's responsible for damaging the Nord Stream pipeline. Does this seem reasonable?
posted by Nancy Lebovitz at 9:39 PM on September 30, 2022

In the end, does it matter? It's rendered useless, no matter who did it.
posted by hippybear at 9:53 PM on September 30, 2022 [1 favorite]

It might matter in the sense of trying to figure out who's likely to do what next.
posted by Nancy Lebovitz at 10:07 PM on September 30, 2022 [1 favorite]

If we stop speculating, all that methane will have been vented in vain.
posted by ryanrs at 10:13 PM on September 30, 2022 [7 favorites]

I think that if we'd all realised that what we were seeing was simply the contents of the pipe exhausting itself (rather than an uncontrolled pumping) someone would have dropped a flare in it to turn that CH3 into CO2
posted by mbo at 10:18 PM on September 30, 2022

The magnitude of the explosion (2.3 Richter) is useful hard evidence.

How many kilos of boomite are required to make that kind of tremor? And how big a vehicle do you need to deliver that much explosive?
posted by Sauce Trough at 12:55 AM on October 1, 2022 [2 favorites]

Sauce Trough: How many kilos of boomite are required to make that kind of tremor?

About 1.5kg (3lb) on average.
posted by Stoneshop at 1:20 AM on October 1, 2022 [3 favorites]

mbo: I suspect they need to remain pressurised otherwise at that depth they'll collapse

Doing the full calculations would require some fierce mathematics and way more coffee than I've drunk yet, but my NapkinCalc[tm] says 1.2m dia pipe, 28mm[0] wall thickness, outside pressure 80m water column, so 8 bar? No problem. And while you could even keep the inside pressure at 5 to 10 bar or so, you have to have a way to store, vent or burn the excess gas you'll be letting out: 5.4 million[1] cubic meter at 110 bar.

[0] probably more like 40mm for the section at that depth.
[1] 1200km, 0.6m radius, four pipes.
posted by Stoneshop at 1:51 AM on October 1, 2022 [1 favorite]

How many kilos of boomite are required…?

I could be wrong, but isn’t boomite > kaboomite > megaboomite > teraboomite the correct progression on the WileEcoyote scale?
posted by cenoxo at 2:21 AM on October 1, 2022 [4 favorites]

The wall thickness is 41 mm. They are covered with an anti-corrosion layer of 42 mm and a concrete layer of 60 mm. But I think the depth can be down to 300 meters in some places. Maybe they put more concrete on them then -- since I have found varying numbers for the concrete layer, up to 110 mm.
posted by mumimor at 2:25 AM on October 1, 2022 [2 favorites]

IMF: War in Ukraine is Contributing to a Global Food Price Shock — The Black Sea grain corridor is helping, but prices are still at historic highs and vulnerable nations are most affected, Maritime Executive, Sep 30, 2022:

The war in Ukraine is contributing to a food price shock around the world, especially in low-income nations most vulnerable to rising prices, according to the International Monetary Fund [*].

The war is one of many crises which have reduced food production and increased prices over the past several years, including climate-driven severe weather events and the COVID-19 pandemic. When Russia launched its invasion in February, the situation grew worse: Russia's clampdown on Ukrainain grain export reduced the availability of wheat and corn, while sanctions on Russia's financial institutions left buyers of Russian fertilizer and agricultural products wary of doing business.

This has caused the global food price index to spike by nearly 50 percent when compared to 2014-16. Less affordable food has increased the number of people who face food insecurity. Around the world, nearly 830 million people now go to bed hungry every night, according to the World Food Programme, and an "unprecedented" 345 million face acute food insecurity….

More in the article.

*Tackling the Global Food Crisis: Impact, Policy Response, and the Role of the IMF, IMF Notes, September 29, 2022 (free PDF download, 38pp):

Russia’s war in Ukraine has exacerbated food insecurity that had already been on the rise for half a decade. Low-income countries are affected the most. This note suggests that the food and fertilizer price shock would add $9 billion in 2022 and 2023 to the import bills of the 48 most affected countries. The budgetary cost of protecting vulnerable households in these countries amounts to $5–7 billion….

Everything always costs more than you expect, especially war and its side effects.
posted by cenoxo at 3:10 AM on October 1, 2022 [8 favorites]

Sauce Trough: How many kilos of boomite are required to make that kind of tremor?

Stoneshop: About 1.5kg (3lb) on average.

PBS reports, "several hundred pounds of explosives", and the guardian says, "Intelligence sources quoted in the news magazine Spiegel believe the pipelines were hit in four places by explosions using 500kg of TNT".

The scientific paper in Stoneshop's link has a log weight (lbs) of explosives, not weight (lbs). So the 3 from the graph indicates hundreds of pounds.
posted by ecco at 4:42 AM on October 1, 2022 [6 favorites]

A good overview of the current state of the battle for Lyman by Tom Balmforth and Pavel Polityuk for Reuters. Excerpt, on why the town is so important:

Russia has used Lyman as a logistics and transport hub for its operations in the north of the Donetsk region. Its fall would be Ukraine's biggest battlefield gain since a lightning counteroffensive in the northeastern Kharkiv region last month.

The Ukrainian military spokersperson said the capture of Lyman would allow Kyiv to advance into the Luhansk region, whose full capture Moscow announced at the beginning of July after weeks of slow, grinding advances.

"Lyman is important because it is the next step towards the liberation of the Ukrainian Donbas. It is an opportunity to go further to Kreminna and Sievierodonetsk, and it is psychologically very important," he said.

Donetsk and Luhansk regions together make up the wider Donbas region that has been a major focus for Russia since soon after the start of Moscow's invasion on Feb. 24.

posted by Kattullus at 6:09 AM on October 1, 2022 [5 favorites]

ICOS measurements show huge methane peaks in the atmosphere after Nord Stream leak, Integrated Carbon Observation System, 30 September 2022:

Due to the damage to the Nord Stream gas lines in the Baltic Sea, an enormous amount of methane gas has been released into the atmosphere. The leak is estimated to equal the size of a whole year's methane emissions for a city the size of Paris or a country like Denmark.

The methane emissions are confirmed by ICOS ground-based observations from several stations in Sweden, Norway, and Finland. Observation satellites were most probably not able to see the emission leaks, because the weather was cloudy.

[GRAPH]
Several ICOS stations in the Nordics observed huge methane peaks after the Nord Stream pipes were damaged. Image copyright ICOS.

“We assume the wind on the leak area blew the methane emissions north until the Finnish archipelago, then bends towards Sweden and Norway,“ says Professor Stephen Platt from NILU.

[VIDEO simulation (screenshot — play embedded video in the article)]
The NILU researchers have modelled how the methane emissions move in the atmosphere. Click the video to see the simulation. Model prepared by Sabine Eckhardt, NILU.

“At a later stage we might be able to confirm and quantify the amount of gas leaked, and several ICOS scientists are currently discussing the various options for that. Right now, particularly given the complex meteorological conditions, and that the methane is still bubbling up from the pipes, it is unfortunately not yet possible,” says Alex Vermeulen, Director of ICOS Carbon Portal.

More details and data links in the article.
posted by cenoxo at 7:35 AM on October 1, 2022 [3 favorites]

This war is Exhibit A on why we need to end the use of fossil fuels ASAP. We need to put carbon taxes on fossil fuels and place steep import taxes on the products of any countries which don't cooperate. We need to take those funds and subsidize the development of renewable energy and conservation measures.
posted by Reverend John at 7:40 AM on October 1, 2022 [11 favorites]

The latest reporting is that Russian forces have evacuated Lyman.
posted by Kattullus at 8:03 AM on October 1, 2022 [10 favorites]

Nord Stream attacks highlight vulnerability of undersea pipelines [and communication cables] in west, Guardian, Julian Borger, 29 Sep 2022.

Spy Submarine: Russia's AS-31 Losharik, H.I. Sutton, Covert Shores, 18 July 2021.
posted by cenoxo at 8:16 AM on October 1, 2022 [2 favorites]

Putin fanboy Ramzan Kadyrov, head of Russia's region of Chechnya, criticized Moscow and suggested the use of low-yield nuclear weapons in Ukraine following Russian losses on the battlefield.
posted by adamvasco at 9:29 AM on October 1, 2022

Putin likes to claim his war is defensive in nature, which is absolutely the most ridiculous thing ever of course.

The political justification for almost all fascist attacks is defense. Even in just routine hateful politics the decisions which are designed to hurt specific people are couched in terms of defensive necessity because it is actually difficult to get normal people to just straight up hurt other people unless you can find a way to make the 'normal people' feel threatened by the people you want to target.

You see interesting evidence of this in phone intercepts released by the Ukrainian intelligence services where the Russians soldiers are perplexed by encountering residents of the invaded territories who tell them that there were no nazis and that the invading soldiers themselves are the nazis. They were told that they were the defenders of their Ukrainian brothers and sisters and instead found out, from the babushkas sitting on benches watching, that they were the aggressors and that is not a psychological shift some people can comfortable integrate into their self concept. Though it is important to note that the intercepts are for sure cherry picked and released as a psyop but it is going to be true for at least some of the Russian soldiers.
posted by srboisvert at 9:46 AM on October 1, 2022 [15 favorites]

Kadyrov just doesn’t want to send more Chechnyans underground
posted by glaucon at 10:18 AM on October 1, 2022 [3 favorites]

I feel like the anti-Russia military propaganda is getting a bit out over its skis about the criticism of the Russian mobilization. It's almost as if the Western press has forgotten that the US military deployed the National Guard, implemented stop loss, degraded the operational capacity of the military via excessive rotations into the soup, loosened recruitment standards and did a few 'surges' to try and succeed in Afghanistan and Iraq. So even one of the very best professional armies with the largest budget the world has ever seen had some major troop staffing troubles doing invasions in the 21C.

Even things like the horror of Russian soldiers having to buy their own kit is something that US troops did during the Iraq/Afghan invasions. There were charity drives to buy body armor and the soldiers were welding crap onto their vehicles to try and improve their armor like they were in Mad Max Fury Road. It seems like the situation of the Russian soldiers is measurably worse but I think it is important to remember that wars of choice always seem like bad decisions and infamously a US defense secretary, Donald Rumsfeld, once said "You go to war with the Army you have, not the Army you might want or wish you had at a later time."

Ultimately, America couldn't surge their way into victory halfway around the world in Iraq or Afghanistan but it wasn't because they actually lost any battles and more because whatever victory was supposed to be may have been impossible regardless of might. Russia on the other hand is losing actual battles quite regularly now.
posted by srboisvert at 10:50 AM on October 1, 2022 [17 favorites]

ecco: The scientific paper in Stoneshop's link has a log weight (lbs) of explosives, not weight (lbs).

Damn, missed that. But as a student I once had a summer job working with a geophysical survey team, staking out the survey lines and blast points. Those blast points were 10m deep with 0.5kg explosives, and the instructions were to keep the blast points 50m away from underground cables and pipes (we had 1:10,000 scale maps with all underground infra), so 1.5kg right on top of a pipe didn't seem way off. Plus, with an inside pressure of 110bar any damage would be pretty certain to lead to a fatal rupture.

500kg TNT comes with the motto "there's no kill like overkill".
posted by Stoneshop at 10:58 AM on October 1, 2022 [1 favorite]

Is it perhaps plausible that "500kg of TNT" = "substantially fewer kg of an explosive invented well after TNT"?
posted by Nerd of the North at 11:09 AM on October 1, 2022 [4 favorites]

Yes, but TNT weight is generally used as reference, even if the actual explosive is nothing like TNT such as a party balloon popping. Somewhat like 'banana for scale' even if the subject is a flea or the Kilimanjaro.
posted by Stoneshop at 11:27 AM on October 1, 2022 [2 favorites]

I feel like the anti-Russia military propaganda is getting a bit out over its skis about the criticism of the Russian mobilization.

Russia has a regular military draft, but it's a limited time and a smaller number than full mobilization, so it's not a all volunteer army. Stop loss is part of the contract you sign. X years of service + Y years of possible stop loss. It sucks, but it's there. And even with the stopgap orders and increased recruiting, people were still going through regular training. Basic training is significant, and after basic soldiers get even more time in advanced training for what they are focused on. In Russia people are just getting shipped to the front after less than a week. Modern armies are not just mass waves of people on the front.

As for supplies, well, what happened in Iraq was shameful (for oh so many reasons), but it's a huge difference from what is being shown in Russia. They are talking basic supplies like med kits and cold weather clothing. Plus, once again, a draft. So "You are in the army now, good luck with basic shelter and surviving winter."

Trying to claim equivalence here is being blind to scale.
posted by aspo at 12:10 PM on October 1, 2022 [22 favorites]

I don't understand these constant "What about the awful shit the US did?" comments. Does the US having failed to stop an insurgency by force of arms with troop surges some make the Russian military more competent or well equipped?

Russia isn't fighting an insurgency and difference between under-equipped US soldiers and Russian ones is huge.

And this conflict is about Russia and Ukraine, not the US.
posted by VTX at 12:14 PM on October 1, 2022 [26 favorites]

I was trying to remember how long ago it was that Zelensky fired suspected Russian collaborators - the news came out on July 17. Things seem to have been going a lot better for Ukraine since then, which makes me wonder how much Russia may have been expecting to rely on treason and sabotage vs troops on the ground. There was some mention in the press of how UA and US intelligence services had been working well together, which seems to have become a little more muted over time as attention shifts to troop advances - has anyone seen recent news on the administrative or intelligence aspects?
posted by pulposus at 12:38 PM on October 1, 2022 [5 favorites]

I don't understand these constant "What about the awful shit the US did?" comments...

posted by VTX

I think a lot of the comments are not whataboutisms, but looking for context. Have any other nations with a large military done anything comparative recently enough for it to be relevant? Yeah, the US did. And of course it is awful when the US made their soldiers buy their equipment, just as it is awful when the Russians do it, and it was awful when the British did it in the First World War; it's awful when anyone is drafted or sent to war, or dies in a conflict.

I think the comments are more looking for comparative scale and familiar examples, and a lot of people here are American because it's an English speaking site, so they will remember when the military wives fanned out and bought every single communication set in Radio Shack in the US to give to their spouses for the Iraq War. The US isn't being singled out as being more awful than Russia, or as being equally awful. If they were, this would be a thread slanted towards "War is Barbaric" not the current state of this war.

One of the most important things about when nations get into conflict is objectivity. Not all Russians are bad, but if they are in Ukraine the Ukrainians must treat them as if they are until they are neutralized. Similarly we must be prepared to take note of atrocities being willfully committed by our own side, whatever that side is. Failure to do this is how you become a baddie. The Russians have done some things very well and made some appalling inexcusable mistakes in strategy. The Ukrainians have done some things very well and done some things that in hindsight will turn out to have been strategic errors. If we want to understand we have to have objectivity instead of to presume the Other is all bad and We are all good.

If it makes you uncomfortable to see a few comments that can be taken as negative about your country, I think it makes sense to ask yourself why they make you so uncomfortable. It seems to me that true patriotism is being indignant about the mistakes your own country is making, and going out and participating in charity drives to provide equipment - a way of saying, "Guys, we can be better than this!". After all there are a lot of us who have contributed to charity drives to equip Ukraine - Thermal burn kits seemed a BIG priority to me in the first few weeks, as did funding drones. That doesn't mean I was criticizing the Ukrainians for not being ready for the war or not having secured more funding before it started.
posted by Jane the Brown at 1:03 PM on October 1, 2022 [15 favorites]

Is it perhaps plausible that "500kg of TNT" = "substantially fewer kg of an explosive invented well after TNT"?

According to cursory search I made this morning, not « substantially » C4 is like 1.4x more explosive than TNT by weight. You can get to 2x it it seems to be the realm of experimental stuff. Now mind you militaries may have access to more things that’s we know, but there are limits imposed by chemistry at some pont .
posted by WaterAndPixels at 1:17 PM on October 1, 2022 [3 favorites]

Stupid physics. Always getting in the way.
posted by hippybear at 1:20 PM on October 1, 2022 [2 favorites]

It might be relevant that while American soldiers needed to have some supplies sent to them and improvise armor, they were treated with the same utter neglect that Russian soldiers are.

Have other nations neglected their soldiers as badly as Russia has?
posted by Nancy Lebovitz at 1:33 PM on October 1, 2022 [2 favorites]

Surely there is a “not” missing from that first sentence?
posted by Quasirandom at 1:50 PM on October 1, 2022 [5 favorites]

You're right, there was a missing "not".

Corrected version:

It might be relevant that while American soldiers needed to have some supplies sent to them and to improvise armor, they were not treated with the same utter neglect that Russian soldiers are.

Have other nations ever neglected their soldiers as badly as Russia has?
posted by Nancy Lebovitz at 2:00 PM on October 1, 2022 [5 favorites]

A far too credible post on /r/NonCredibleDefense on pallets in military logistics in case anyone was still wondering about that.
posted by interogative mood at 2:57 PM on October 1, 2022 [7 favorites]

In fairness, those Doritos and dragon dildoes aren't gonna last-mile themselves to my door.
posted by Flunkie at 3:08 PM on October 1, 2022 [4 favorites]

Have other nations ever neglected their soldiers as badly as Russia has?

Possibly Italy, or in a sense Nazi Germany vis-à-vis its axis allies -- the Hungarians guarding the flank to Stalingrad were under-equipped and crumbled when the Soviets attacked.
posted by Monday, stony Monday at 3:19 PM on October 1, 2022 [1 favorite]

Kadyrov just doesn’t want to send more Chechnyans underground

Kadrov unilaterally exempted Chechnya from the mobilization. I suspect that he's playing the role of loyal Putin henchman while setting himself up to take advantage of a post-Putin world.
posted by meowzilla at 3:36 PM on October 1, 2022 [4 favorites]

500kg TNT comes with the motto "there's no kill like overkill".

like the man says, it's the only way to be sure.

A bigger boom like that would be more forgiving of positioning than a tiny charge, it would enable a less precise delivery and perhaps a more expedient deployment. It can also give some clues to the scale of the deploying craft.
posted by Sauce Trough at 3:56 PM on October 1, 2022 [1 favorite]

Ukraine themselves know that any truly overt military actions outside the pre-2014 borders is doom, so they won't do that.

It's weird watching people who work from one worldview trying to confront someone who has a different, less awful worldview, because they assume they're just as awful and it becomes sort of blatant and obvious.
posted by hippybear at 4:19 PM on October 1, 2022 [8 favorites]

It's weird watching people who work from one worldview trying to confront someone who has a different, less awful worldview, because they assume they're just as awful and it becomes sort of blatant and obvious.

This is not the Trump thread!
posted by Flunkie at 4:25 PM on October 1, 2022 [10 favorites]

Have other nations ever neglected their soldiers as badly as Russia has?

Yes.

it makes you uncomfortable to see a few comments that can be taken as negative about your country, I think it makes sense to ask yourself why they make you so uncomfortable.

It makes me uncomfortable and that's ok. Criticisms are fine, start a thread but not here. Comparing the U.S. wars, 1990 to 2019, is just not compatible. We fought 2 and 1/4 wars for years. Russia is severely degraded after just months. The U.S. would have massed 300 to 400 troops and taken out military infrastructure for starters.

One of the most important things about when nations get into conflict is objectivity.

No, it is not. Objectives are. It's war and by it's nature, the dehumanizing process has already set in it's rot. Objectivity becomes a luxury of discernment.

"Russians have done some things very well and made some appalling inexcusable mistakes in strategy"
Surrendering en masse?

but I agree, no matter my temper, that searching for context matters as does war crimes no matter who. But American military doctorine has changed, using it for comparison is difficult.
posted by clavdivs at 4:43 PM on October 1, 2022 [3 favorites]

Objectivity is one of the most important things, to me, personally, when discussing matters I care about. So when the rot of the dehumanizing process sets in, or when statements start being judged by their propaganda value or by their strength or signaling about whose side one is on, rather than conveying information that helps one understand a difficult situation -- well, at that point, my instinct is to disengage from such discussions. One of the things I value about this forum is that, by and large, objectivity and good will tend to be valued and present in decent amounts. So I thank everyone for that.
posted by brambleboy at 5:01 PM on October 1, 2022 [5 favorites]

If it makes you uncomfortable to see a few comments that can be taken as negative about your country, I think it makes sense to ask yourself why they make you so uncomfortable.

LOL, no. This is so far from anything like how I feel I can't express in words how very wrong this is. I'm quite comfortable dumping on my country and reading others doing the same. I've read several books to that effect even.

It's almost as if the Western press has forgotten that the US military deployed the National Guard, implemented stop loss...

That's the comment I was responding because it reads like complaint is that we've gone too long with talk about US military mis-adventures. The US isn't neglecting any soldiers right now, that's why it's not getting talked about in the media. Because the conflict is NOT ABOUT THE US. This is a derail and I'm done with it.
posted by VTX at 5:15 PM on October 1, 2022 [20 favorites]

Here, certainly, Objectivity is essential and these threads have been remarkable facets of information, even the joking, the poems, the diaries, tweets, the very essence of life, it's spirit continuing, nay thriving in Ukraine and it's neighbors is astounding. Rghteous without delving into righteousness.
Like America pretended.

I appreciate the turn of phrase but we all know a war zone is different then a website.
Objectivity first casualty as Russian media slam U.S.A.
2003-04-10

“The first casualty when war comes is truth.”
-Hiram Johnson.
posted by clavdivs at 5:32 PM on October 1, 2022 [4 favorites]

Russia isn't fighting an insurgency

One of their problems is that they are dealing with partisan attacks (aka "insurgency") behind their front lines, while fighting an active war.

People are sometimes exaggerating the problems going on with the mobilization, but overall the Russian position just seems increasingly unworkable to me. They haven't created an offramp, they haven't created a path to victory, and they are underperforming across multiple axes.
posted by Dip Flash at 6:20 PM on October 1, 2022 [1 favorite]

The folks at the ISW think that Russias logistical and equipment problems make it unlikely that Russia will use a low yield / tactical nuclear device

The chaotic agglomeration of exhausted contract soldiers, hastily mobilized reservists, conscripts, and mercenaries that currently comprise the Russian ground forces could not function in a nuclear environment. Any areas affected by Russian tactical nuclear weapons would thus be impassable for the Russians, likely precluding Russian advances. This consideration is another factor that reduces the likelihood of Russian tactical nuclear weapons use

posted by interogative mood at 6:28 PM on October 1, 2022 [3 favorites]

Unfortunately, I think all those "no rational person would do this" arguments don't really apply here. The Russians are using conscription to do ethnic cleansing. Sending conscripts into contaminated zones to die would be considered a feature.

I think it would be a terrible, terrible mistake for Russia to open up that particular can of worms. But this whole misadventure was a mistake from the start. "It would be a mistake if..." is starting to look like a leading indicator when it comes to Russia.
posted by notoriety public at 6:40 PM on October 1, 2022 [9 favorites]

Sending conscripts into contaminated zones

Literally thing that went on 6 months ago. Was ugly then, too.
posted by hippybear at 6:42 PM on October 1, 2022 [4 favorites]

literally an objective with no objectivity.
posted by clavdivs at 6:50 PM on October 1, 2022

R.U.S.I. (UK) Samuel Ramani on Twitter

Zelensky advisor Oleksiy Arestovych claims that Putin's refusal to withdraw from Lyman ahead of the annexation ceremony cost Russia 1,500 lives

Closest I've seen to an estimate of the number of Russians caught in Lyman.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 6:59 PM on October 1, 2022 [1 favorite]

Ukraine themselves know that any truly overt military actions outside the pre-2014 borders is doom, so they won't do that.

Unfortunately, it was just a few weeks ago that Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief, General Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, was calling for ATACMS to do exactly that.
posted by Reverend John at 7:24 PM on October 1, 2022 [3 favorites]

Ukraine already attacked Belgorod and nobody got nuked.

I think we should give them ATACMS.
posted by ryanrs at 9:15 PM on October 1, 2022 [2 favorites]

Ukraine themselves know that any truly overt military actions outside the pre-2014 borders is doom, so they won't do that.

They absolutely will be doing this when/if the time comes. Russia has been launching attacks from within Russian borders and from the Black Sea. If Ukraine pushes Russia back their original borders what do you think is going to happen? Ukraine likely won't let them continue bomb with impunity.

It does certainly raise hairy questions about what the end state will have to be given that Russia has repeatedly broken its word to Ukraine in the past. What does Ukraine securing its national borders actually and practically entail? Russia believed in February that their security required taking over all Ukraine.
posted by srboisvert at 9:26 PM on October 1, 2022 [9 favorites]

I think that while the Russian Federation armed forces have not shown quality, that it could be a trap to consider the entire RF forces to be incompetent and rotting from within. Their "nonconventional" strength could very well be upkept sufficiently.

From the factual evidence, and the absolutely mickey mouse and yackety sax way the RF draft has been going, I'm not so sure that outside observerations are wrong about the very surprising lack of quality of RF forces.

Standard issued US expeditionary equipment are uniform, adequate, and far superior to what has been seen issued to RF forces in the Ukrainian conflict - the bake sales and fundraising in the US was for supplemental equipment.
posted by porpoise at 9:29 PM on October 1, 2022 [2 favorites]

Dude, my camping/hunting gear is far superior to what has been issued to a lot of Russian forces.
posted by ryanrs at 10:09 PM on October 1, 2022 [8 favorites]

Ukraine and it's allies have been incremental while Russia, escalatory.
Just a few weeks ago Norway sent Hell fires and few things say, not worry about it (•) then a hell fire. Ukraine will absolutely need long range missles

General Zaluzhnyi has been asking for them since at least early May.

Let's see, Russia churned up Chernobyl which they fucked up with thier secrecy in the first place and are parking some weapons at Zaporizhzhya.

But don't give them missles?
posted by clavdivs at 11:09 PM on October 1, 2022

Our PM has been traveling Europe during the weekend to talk with Truss, Stoltenberg, Macron, Scholz and other EU leaders about the leak. The point is that this is too difficult to handle for a small, flat country that can be eradicated in a few hours. She is still not directly saying the Russians did it, which I get, but it leaves a lot of space for weird conspiracies.
She did say: These are very unstable times in Europe, and Europeans have to adjust to understanding that things may happen that we thought were unthinkable.
(my translation).

If she says out loud: Russia attacked vital infrastructure in a Danish economic area, basically, she triggers NATO article 5. And that is complicated. I understand why Russia and some commenters here feel that means that European countries will accept everything Russia does, but that is just not true.
posted by mumimor at 1:58 AM on October 2, 2022 [15 favorites]

Are you people just not able to comprehend "do not wargame nuclear weapons in these threads?"
posted by seanmpuckett at 6:37 AM on October 2, 2022 [27 favorites]

I've seen several analysts saying that the important part of the Lyman encirclement is not just that it happened, but that Ukraine pulled of this kind of attack on a Russian target with properly equipped regular Russian forces, dug in and with at least some support, and they apparently did it with fairly few losses themselves. You can't just handwave away the whole recent offensives by saying that they found a hole in a very lightly held line and rolled up a bunch of militia. No, this is a proper assault by people who understand both the tactics and logistics of it, and they persevered.
posted by Harald74 at 7:07 AM on October 2, 2022 [24 favorites]

Putin isn’t doing anything new. In 1939, Soviet Russia used war as an effective way of acquiring (or re-acquiring) territory. Quoting from The End of WWII and the Division of Europe, Center for European Studies, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill:

Annexation: Soviet Socialist Republics

…The Soviets annexed their first territories in eastern Poland on September 17, 1939, under the terms of the Non-Aggression Pact made with Nazi Germany. Soon after, the Red Army went to war with Finland in order to secure a buffer zone of protection for Leningrad (St. Petersburg). When the war was over, Finland ceded the territories demanded by the Soviets plus Karelia. The Soviet Union subsequently annexed the Baltic States, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, as well as Moldova in 1940. Several other territories (modern-day Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan and Armenia) had been annexed prior to 1939.

In addition to the Republics, several countries in Eastern Europe operated as Soviet satellite states. These countries were not officially part of the USSR, but their governments were loyal Stalinists, and therefore looked to and aligned themselves with the Soviet Union politically and militarily via the Warsaw Pact….

Never waste a good crisis. Invade and occupy the desired territory; raise your flag over it; stage fake elections to legally grant it to yourself; force the population to vote the correct way; declare that it now belongs to you; and dare anyone to take it away.

See also: Wikipedia > Territories of Poland annexed by the Soviet Union — 1939 Soviet Union Invasion of Poland.
posted by cenoxo at 7:09 AM on October 2, 2022 [5 favorites]

Argues enthusiastically that the Nord Stream explosions were an accident caused by lack of maintenance

Counter arguments in the comments, but at least you will end up knowing more about the maintenance of gas pipelines.
posted by Nancy Lebovitz at 7:16 AM on October 2, 2022 [6 favorites]

I think a less escalatory response to the Russian long range missile threat would be to blanket Ukraine with anti-missile defenses. Whether that's massively expanded supplies of NASAMS, Patriot missile systems, THAAD, Aegis Ashore, others, or some combo I don't know. But attempting to defang Russia's long range missile threat would be a better response than risking an escalatory cycle which might end in the use of nuclear weapons, even if we think that such a move would be irrational on Russia's part.
posted by Reverend John at 8:00 AM on October 2, 2022 [3 favorites]

It could be a reason to finally get off the fence with interceptors.
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:30 AM on October 2, 2022 [1 favorite]

UK assessment: Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 on Twitter

(1/6) On 1 October 2022 the Russian force in the Donetsk Oblast town of Lyman withdrew in the face of Ukrainian advances. Lyman was likely being defended by undermanned elements of Russia’s Western and Central Military Districts…

(2/6) …as well as contingents of voluntarily mobilised reservists. The force probably experienced heavy casualties as it withdrew along the only road out of the town still in Russian hands.

(3/6) Operationally, Lyman is important because it commands a key road crossing over the Siversky Donets River, behind which Russia has been attempting to consolidate its defences.

(4/6) Russia’s withdrawal from Lyman also represents a significant political setback given that it is located within Donetsk Oblast, a region Russia supposedly aimed to ‘liberate’ and has attempted to illegally annex.

(5/6) The withdrawal has led to a further wave of public criticism of Russia’s military leadership by senior officials.

(6/6) Further losses of territory in illegally occupied territories will almost certainly lead to an intensification of this public criticism and increase the pressure on senior commanders.

posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 9:00 AM on October 2, 2022 [7 favorites]

Argues enthusiastically that the Nord Stream explosions were an accident

I'm not buying that argument. Guy says that no saboteur would blow one pipeline, but then wait 17 hours to blow the next, so it has to be an accident. So instead the Russians accidentally blew up one line and then kept doing the same thing until the other line blew up too? I mean, maybe, but that's not an accident anymore.

Also he uses 'flammable' and 'explosive' interchangeably. That methane in the pipe is flammable, for sure, but it's not explosive without any oxygen mixed in.
posted by echo target at 9:29 AM on October 2, 2022 [5 favorites]

Argues enthusiastically that the Nord Stream explosions were an accident

And they are getting basic facts wrong: There have been 4 incidents, not 2, as there are actually 2 independent pipelines each for Nord Stream 1 and 2. And for Nord Stream 1, gas was still flowing until at least end of August, so the claim of "no movement for months" is also bogus...
posted by ltl at 10:18 AM on October 2, 2022 [1 favorite]

Correction: Looks like there was one hole each in both pipes of Nord Stream 1 and one hole in Nord Stream 2 (which has never been actively used but was still filled with gas).
posted by ltl at 10:30 AM on October 2, 2022 [1 favorite]

Visegrád 24 on Twitter

The Danish Energy Agency has announced that Nord Stream 1 has stopped leaking gas into the Baltic Sea.

It will soon be possible to go down there and see how big the damages are and possibly find out more about how the attack happened.

posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 11:38 AM on October 2, 2022 [5 favorites]

From the "30 km breakthrough on the Kherson front" link:

Russian war experts are in "a little" panic.

This is a game-changer: Russians have war experts now!
posted by Flunkie at 1:37 PM on October 2, 2022 [12 favorites]

It's going to be over this winter, Russia is done.
posted by Meatbomb at 2:14 PM on October 2, 2022 [3 favorites]

Rob Lee, who's been linked to fairly often in these threads, has gathered the most relevant information on Twitter laying out what's happening on the Kherson front. So far, there's good evidence that the Ukrainian forces have advanced a considerable distance forward, but the Russian army has not collapsed there, and is still resisting.
posted by Kattullus at 2:40 PM on October 2, 2022 [7 favorites]

I think a less escalatory response to the Russian long range missile threat would be to blanket Ukraine with anti-missile defenses. Whether that's massively expanded supplies of NASAMS, Patriot missile systems

No doubt Ukraine needs more weapons but anti-missle system to cover the AO would require more then can be had. I see your idea, like prepositioning a bunch of darts to take out the pool cue. seanmpuckett wishes not war game as I wish don't use America for your Russian analogy, lets not become "You People".
Reverend John, your link: 'Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief, General Valeriy Zaluzhnyi...' is a fine read and sobering. He's correct about the center of gravity, militarily, It seems crucial to attack south in 23'. Essentially a war of protraction could work to Ukraine's advantage in a southern offensive and keeping the lines static through winter, bringing up enough weapons systems to keep Russia on the defensive by blunting it's attacks. In order for Ukraine to pre-postion units and hold defensive perimeters, long range missles are essential the only political matter is if Ukraine asks I believe this is why hell fires from Norway are important. Incremental systems integration.
posted by clavdivs at 3:52 PM on October 2, 2022 [2 favorites]

It's going to be over this winter, Russia is done.

The troops on both sides of the front will all be home by Christmas, no doubt.
posted by cenoxo at 5:17 PM on October 2, 2022 [2 favorites]

...but anti-missle system to cover the AO would require more then can be had...

By my Dunning-Kruger analysis, Ukraine's Belarus-Russian-Black Sea border is about 1500 miles. According to Wikipedia the PAC-3 missile has a range of 19 miles against ballistic missiles. So 100 Patriot launchers could cover that with some redundancy. Again according to Wikipedia there are 1,106 launchers in US service, with over 10,000 missiles produced (though presumably not all PAC-3). Throw in another 100 launchers plus NASAMS for point defenses for cities and I don't see that it necessarily follows that providing Ukraine with an effective long range missile defense is close to unfeasible.

Obviously, even if we decided to do this tomorrow it would still take months to train and equip Ukraine, but it doesn't seem inherently unreasonable.

Although, yeah, some drone-launched Hellfires might be a good way to sting Russia deeper into their own land.
posted by Reverend John at 6:43 PM on October 2, 2022 [1 favorite]

A few days ago ChrisO posted a list of the items which new Russian military conscripts are being asked to source for themselves. Including "optional" bullet proof vests and helmets. Pricing of those items are going the way one might expect given demand.
posted by rongorongo at 10:40 PM on October 2, 2022 [6 favorites]

Ahahahaha, so corrupt logistics officers are stealing gear and selling it to conscripts. Who need to buy it because the logistics officer stole it.

How has it taken until 2022 for Russia to collapse?
posted by ryanrs at 12:30 AM on October 3, 2022 [11 favorites]

Sheer inertia. The corruption and deterioration of stores was well known, but the extent of it was plain unbelievable to any reasonable actor. Note that between Afghanistan and now, Russians only attacked tiny and/or undersupplied countries that weren't able to put up an effective defense in the face of prevailing numbers. They thought Ukrainians were like them, but it turned out that Ukrainians are so much more flexible and not too proud to accept support, while stubborn enough not to give up.

As someone just pointed out on Polish twitter, eight months ago we were watching grandmothers put together Molotov cocktails in Kyiv. Now it looks like Russian outposts in the Kherson region are buckling just like in the northeast. Hell of a long way to go.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 1:41 AM on October 3, 2022 [15 favorites]

Hey, if you don't loot army stores to sell at an extortionate markup, you're just leaving money on the table for the next guy...
posted by acb at 1:55 AM on October 3, 2022 [1 favorite]

Ahahahaha, so corrupt logistics officers are stealing gear and selling it to conscripts. Who need to buy it because the logistics officer stole it.
... and don't forget the microcredit industry loan sharks who are waiting loan you the cash you need for your gear - they want their cut too. Just tell them where your family live, as some collateral. In case you might run into difficulties.
posted by rongorongo at 2:24 AM on October 3, 2022 [4 favorites]

A few days ago ChrisO posted a list of the items which new Russian military conscripts are being asked to source for themselves. Including "optional" bullet proof vests and helmets.

That is effing insane. I did imagine there was something like that going on, but I did not imagine this level of incompetence and corruption and sheer idiocy. There is no way Russia can win this war. What are they even thinking?
That said, unprepared, undernourished and frightened soldiers are going to be a nightmare for the civilians they encounter.
posted by mumimor at 2:47 AM on October 3, 2022 [6 favorites]

I don't remember which video showed Russian parents, wives, etc. *smuggling* supplies to Russian soldiers so that the officers wouldn't steal the supplies..
posted by Nancy Lebovitz at 3:31 AM on October 3, 2022 [1 favorite]

Reverend John: Unfortunately, it was just a few weeks ago that Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief, General Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, was calling for ATACMS to do exactly that.

What I read there was the need to be able to hit and ultimately recapture Crimea. I don't doubt there was "capability of disrupting Russian supply lines on their home turf" hidden in the milspeak, but nothing explicit.

And yes, for Crimea ATACMS is one of the things they need.
posted by Stoneshop at 4:31 AM on October 3, 2022 [2 favorites]

Haven't been to Russia (or Belarus) without the border patrol trying to take my shit. So this is my surprised face.
posted by UN at 4:54 AM on October 3, 2022 [8 favorites]

Arrow Intel:

Russian war journalist admits that there will be no reinforcements in the Kherson region anytime soon.

He also notes that low-rank officers reported a huge amount of Ukrainian troops preparing for attack, but RU general responsible for that front simply refused to believe it.

So, what is the Russian equivalent of "Pics or it didn't happen"?
posted by Stoneshop at 5:50 AM on October 3, 2022 [2 favorites]

How has it taken until 2022 for Russia to collapse?


It's when the tide goes out that you find out who's been skinny dipping.

Lots of countries out there could have armies that are rotted out but untested.
If Malawi's army was unprepared for a war, would anyone notice?
posted by ocschwar at 6:07 AM on October 3, 2022 [3 favorites]

There is no way Russia can win this war. What are they even thinking?

Originally, that they would not really be required to fight it (by abdication of western powers). Now, they are thinking they need to avoid losing it catastrophically. Or so it seems from the cheap seats.

My guess is that this is going to go something like Vietnam after the Tet Offensive; in terms of the sustainability of this Russian raw manpower surge, and the course of the war.
posted by snuffleupagus at 6:19 AM on October 3, 2022 [1 favorite]

So, what is the Russian equivalent of "Pics or it didn't happen"?

The same ChrisO who was linked above had a thread the other day that focused on exactly this, saying that a key Russian command problem is that it is literally "pics or it didn't happen," so lower ranks fake the daily photo reports.

4/ As in armies everywhere, Russian officers are expected to write reports to their superiors on their unit's status. In Russia's case, reports appear to be supplemented with photos taken by the officers or the men under their command, depicting their activities.

5/ Russian officers seem to be using photo reports to disseminate false information about their units. Personal accounts from Russian soldiers describe photo reports being used to fake training exercises, presumably to accompany false reports of compliance with orders.

He goes on to give examples where false reporting supposedly caused casualties and losses.
posted by Dip Flash at 6:20 AM on October 3, 2022 [8 favorites]

On twitter there are a bunch of people doing open-source intelligence gathering, like identifying Russian defensive positions in satellite photos and tracking destroyed equipment. My current favorite is the guy who has been painstakingly identifying Russian ferry crossings in satellite images, and who just discovered that Russian soldiers are posting geolocated selfies from the ferries. (Militarily I am guessing this isn't actually a big deal since there is already 24/7 military overhead observation going on, which is how the ferries keep getting blown up, but it is funny that they can be found so easily.)
posted by Dip Flash at 6:51 AM on October 3, 2022 [3 favorites]

There is no way Russia can win this war. What are they even thinking?

Right now, it looks like Russia is taking advantage of the situation to do a little ethnic cleansing. And reducing unemployment the hard way. The Russians who remain will be even more fanatically supportive of Putin. Imagine the current rightward march of GOP and it will start to make sense.
posted by SPrintF at 8:44 AM on October 3, 2022 [6 favorites]

The ferry selfies are a problem because troops displaying poor opsec at that location are unlikely to perform better in more sensitive areas.
posted by Mitheral at 9:25 AM on October 3, 2022 [5 favorites]

yeah putin should train them better
posted by ryanrs at 9:52 AM on October 3, 2022 [1 favorite]

So, Czechs crowd-funded a tank for Ukraine.

I read about this earlier today, but what I didn't realize then is that they've apparently named it Tomáš the Tank.
posted by taz at 11:25 AM on October 3, 2022 [19 favorites]

Things are moving so quickly that we just don’t know where or if Russian forces will be able to make a stand. Putin seems to be like Hitler in the Berlin bunker ordering Steiner to assemble a division from nothing and lead a counter attack to save him. No doubt when the generals fail him he will similarly blame them for failing to follow his orders.

The whole mobilization and annexation is totally detached from reality. Actual generals and experts suggest that it take weeks to months to really mobilize. Ukraine mobilized something like 700,000 people starting in March and they really didn’t hit the battlefield until September in large numbers. And that’s with NATO training and equipping them.

This is the actual downfall scene playing out here with Putin as Hitler in the bunker. Hitler expecting Steiner to magically cobble together divisions out of thin air and have them counter attack to save Berlin. Then Hitler raging because Steiner won’t follow his orders that can’t be followed.
posted by interogative mood at 12:03 PM on October 3, 2022 [10 favorites]

Ukraine retakes more territory in southern Kherson region [AP via PBS]
posted by snuffleupagus at 1:08 PM on October 3, 2022 [8 favorites]

From the New Yorker Radio Hour, Dmitry Bykov. He makes a (turning out to might well be) startling prediction about this coming October.
posted by From Bklyn at 2:11 PM on October 3, 2022 [3 favorites]

Petraeus: US would destroy Russia’s troops if Putin uses nuclear weapons in Ukraine

The US and its allies would destroy Russia’s troops and equipment in Ukraine – as well as sink its Black Sea fleet – if the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, uses nuclear weapons in the country, former CIA director and retired four-star army general David Petraeus warned on Sunday.

Petraeus said that he had not spoken to national security adviser Jake Sullivan on the likely US response to nuclear escalation from Russia, which administration officials have said has been repeatedly communicated to Moscow.

He told ABC News: “Just to give you a hypothetical, we would respond by leading a Nato – a collective – effort that would take out every Russian conventional force that we can see and identify on the battlefield in Ukraine and also in Crimea and every ship in the Black Sea.”

posted by MrVisible at 2:19 PM on October 3, 2022 [3 favorites]

I found this to be a really interesting long youtube explainer of the economics and politics of the war so far:

6 Months of War in Ukraine - Economics, Endurance & the Energy War by Perun
posted by srboisvert at 2:22 PM on October 3, 2022 [5 favorites]

How has it taken until 2022 for Russia to collapse?

Huge amounts of natural resources can make up for a lot of mismanagement and folly.
posted by srboisvert at 2:37 PM on October 3, 2022 [4 favorites]

So 100 Patriot launchers could cover that with some redundancy. Again according

I was thinking the whole country but I think you right, 100-120 should cover a Crimea offensive.
posted by clavdivs at 3:55 PM on October 3, 2022

He told ABC News

If I'm thinking of the same interview, he said it would take about 96 hours (eight days) to completely destroy or expel all occupation forces — on the outside.

Might have been a different general on CNN.
posted by snuffleupagus at 9:11 PM on October 3, 2022

Ukraine war latest: Ukraine making more gains in east and south — The Kyiv Independent

Ukraine has also liberated Lyman’s neighboring settlements, gaining a foothold in the area of Donetsk Oblast bordering Luhansk Oblast.

Ukraine’s counteroffensive also appears to be progressing in Kharkiv Oblast, with emerging reports of newly liberated settlements on the eastern side of the Oskil River. While the military hasn’t commented on the status of the settlements, the local council in the village of Borova said that it was liberated.

Ukrainian forces have apparently made breakthroughs in Kherson Oblast. Russian proxies in the region said that the situation is “tense” for them.

posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 9:12 PM on October 3, 2022 [1 favorite]

96 hours = 4 days

NATO is even more powerful than you thought!
posted by ryanrs at 9:30 PM on October 3, 2022

Ukraine war latest: Ukraine making more gains in east and south — The Kyiv Independent

Yeah, when ISW publishes its daily assessment, I like flipping back and forth between their latest main map and the previous day's, and today there were noticeable gains in both places. Mostly in the east -- from Kharkiv and northern Donetsk Oblasts towards Luhansk Oblast -- but also in the south/west towards Kherson. It's been pretty rare for a while now that I've noticed definite gains in the Kherson area on their maps.

Doing the same with their "zoomed in" maps of individual theaters of course makes relatively small changes easier to see - for example Kherson area, October 2 vs. October 3.
posted by Flunkie at 9:52 PM on October 3, 2022 [6 favorites]

Ukraine mobilized something like 700,000 people starting in March and they really didn’t hit the battlefield until September in large numbers.

Is this related to the Ukrainian offensive we've been seeing?
posted by UN at 2:40 AM on October 4, 2022 [1 favorite]

clavdivs: 100-120 should cover a Crimea offensive.

Those Patriot systems should cover the entire RU-UA border/frontline, as well as the BY-UA border. Even if Lukashenko won't have missiles launched from Belarussian soil, he likely won't object very much to them being launched from Bryansk, then turning left over Homyel.

It's not just the Crimea theater where you have to deploy them.
posted by Stoneshop at 3:38 AM on October 4, 2022 [1 favorite]

Here’s how the Nord Stream gas pipelines could be fixed — The first step will be figuring out the extent of the damage. Then the difficulties really begin., Chris Stokel-Walker, MIT Technology Review, October 3, 2022:

Until Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines were a key part of Europe’s energy infrastructure. In the fourth quarter of 2021, the Nord Stream lines supplied 18% of all Europe’s gas imports [PDF]. Half of Russia’s gas imports to Europe came through Nord Stream 1—a record high. (Nord Stream 2, which has been completed, has not yet come online after Germany withheld its certification following the invasion.)

Since then, Nord Stream has become a geopolitical pawn as Russia has retaliated for economic sanctions imposed upon it after the invasion. In July, Russia took the pipeline offline for scheduled maintenance but never returned it to full capacity; by August, Russia’s state energy company had declared an unplanned outage.

Then, in late September, unexpected damage caused four leaks in the subsea pipeline system. Everyone except Russia believes it’s sabotage by the pariah state as it attempts to squeeze supplies ahead of a tricky winter energy shortage in Europe, where countries are already planning to cut back on energy use.

Now the race is on to fix the vital pipelines before winter—if that’s even possible….

Details follow in the article.
posted by cenoxo at 4:09 AM on October 4, 2022 [1 favorite]

cenoxo: Now the race is on to fix the vital pipelines before winter—if that’s even possible….

Starting with checking if there's even a need to repair them, then checking whether a repeat can be prevented, and then checking again if there would still be a need to have them repaired considering the repair timeline and the repair and protection costs.
posted by Stoneshop at 5:46 AM on October 4, 2022 [2 favorites]

Volodymyr Ishchenko: Behind Russia’s War Is Thirty Years of Post-Soviet Class Conflict (Jacobin)

Unfortunately, the real world is more complicated. The key to understanding “what Putin really wants” is not cherry-picking obscure phrases from his speeches and articles that fit observers’ preconceived biases, but rather conducting a systematic analysis of the structurally determined material interests, political organization, and ideological legitimation of the social class he represents.

In the following, I try to identify some basic elements of such an analysis for the Russian context. That does not mean a similar analysis of the Western or Ukrainian ruling classes’ interests in this conflict is irrelevant or inappropriate, but I focus on Russia partially for practical reasons, partially because it is the most controversial question at the moment, and partially because the Russian ruling class bears the primary responsibility for the war. By understanding their material interests, we can move beyond flimsy explanations that take rulers’ claims at face value and move toward a more coherent picture of how the war is rooted in the economic and political vacuum opened up by the Soviet collapse in 1991.

posted by kmt at 6:16 AM on October 4, 2022 [6 favorites]

96 hours = 4 days


Yes, sorry, garbled that. I couldn't find the clip (so I'm thinking it wasn't Petraeus) but I think the estimate was something like four days for the initial, decisive operation and eight days on the outside to establish practical territorial control over the occupied areas.

(I'm not sure if that was meant to include Crimea and particularly Sevastopol.)
posted by snuffleupagus at 6:19 AM on October 4, 2022

Lots of reports this morning of yet another major advance on the Kherson front, with the Russians retreating and/or desperately trying to shorten their lines.
posted by 1970s Antihero at 6:49 AM on October 4, 2022 [2 favorites]

That Marxist analysis of the causes of this war linked to by kmt is interesting. The TL;DR, as I read it, is: because the kleptocracy is starting to run out of Russia to steal.

The author makes a couple interesting points about Ukrainian politics as asides.
posted by Quasirandom at 7:19 AM on October 4, 2022 [1 favorite]

Pippin: "What about a rout?"
Aragon: "You already had it."
Pippin: "We had one, yes. What about second rout?"
Merry: "I don't think he knows about second rout, Pip."
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 7:59 AM on October 4, 2022 [17 favorites]

Petreaus clip
posted by mumimor at 8:14 AM on October 4, 2022

Kyiv Independent: Russia's Defense Ministry claims 200,000 men already conscripted for war in Ukraine.

Russia has fulfilled plans for its “partial mobilization” by more than two-thirds, conscripting 200,000 personnel, Russian state-controlled news agency RIA Novosti reported on Oct. 4, citing Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. Ukraine’s Defense Ministry, meanwhile, said that over 2,000 Russian soldiers have called them to surrender in the past few weeks.

posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 10:57 AM on October 4, 2022

Tracked down the blurb I was remembering - it was Gen. 'Spider' Marks to Erin Burnett. He only floats the 96 hours, so I was blending that with someone else's more conservative estimate.
posted by snuffleupagus at 1:14 PM on October 4, 2022

My son just found this bizarre UKR channel, still not quite sure what it is: Супер Сус. In this particular episode our band of freaks and misfits show us why we should not go mushroom picking in the forests around Kiev.
posted by Meatbomb at 1:50 PM on October 4, 2022 [2 favorites]

The problem with reporting such rosy numbers for conscription is that if the situation on the ground doesn’t improve soon it will be seen as yet another failure.
posted by interogative mood at 1:54 PM on October 4, 2022

Ukraine News 🇺🇦 on Twitter

#Ukraine: Russian Sources say that "The #UkrainianArmy launched a massive offensive west of the city of #Kherson with a hundred armored vehicles "

waiting for more details ⌛

If true, this would be separate from the push from the north we've been seeing the past couple days. The lines are much closer on Kherson city's west.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 5:32 PM on October 4, 2022 [1 favorite]

Those Patriot systems should cover the entire RU-UA border/frontline, as well as the BY-UA border.

Operational range.
PAC-1: 56 mi (90 km) PAC-2: 99 mi (160 km) PAC-3: 19 mi (30 km) against ballistic missile PAC-3 MSE: 37 mi (60 km)
posted by clavdivs at 5:44 PM on October 4, 2022

While researching the latest Ukrainian attack I found this dope interactive map:

https://liveuamap.com/en/time/05.10.2022

Can't vouch for its reliability or accuracy but feature-wise it's pretty cool.
posted by Sauce Trough at 5:58 PM on October 4, 2022 [2 favorites]

The problem with reporting such rosy numbers for conscription is that if the situation on the ground doesn’t improve soon it will be seen as yet another failure.

Putin is gonna go all "pics or it didn't happen" on his henchmen and they are going to send him photoshopped photos of North Korean rallies.
posted by Sauce Trough at 6:01 PM on October 4, 2022

Does anyone know anything about that "Ukraine News" Twitter account? I don't, and I'd like the tweet to be true, but it seems... kinda sketchy.
posted by Flunkie at 6:13 PM on October 4, 2022 [1 favorite]

Harpaш Band. 'Cover Enje'.
posted by clavdivs at 6:41 PM on October 4, 2022

kinda sketchy.
Hmm.
Andriy Yermack

Russian army maps show major retreats in Ukraine’s Kherson region
posted by clavdivs at 7:09 PM on October 4, 2022 [1 favorite]

clavdivs, maybe I'm not following you, but:

Regarding the first link, I'm not going to pretend to know what 🇺🇦+🇺🇦+🇺🇦+🇺🇦+🇺🇦 *🚀 = 🍉 is supposed to mean beyond some sort of vague pro-Ukrainian thing, so I'm not sure how it bears on the "Ukraine News" account.

Regarding the second link, the only thing it really specifically refers to that (at least at first glance) seems potentially relevant to the "Ukraine News" account (well, really just to the information in the account's tweet) is a mention that Moscow published maps showing "Russian forces were no longer in control of the village of Dudchany", which is a village in Kherson Oblast. But it's waaaaaaaaaaaaay to the east of Kherson (city), not to the west, which is where "Ukraine News" is saying the new massive attack is from.

Anyway, I'm not really saying the sketchy-looking account's information is not accurate (whether coincidentally or not) - I'm saying the account looks sketchy, and I'm asking if anybody knows anything about it, enough to hazard an opinion on whether they're generally reliable or not.
posted by Flunkie at 7:40 PM on October 4, 2022 [1 favorite]

Does anyone know anything about that "Ukraine News" Twitter account? I don't, and I'd like the tweet to be true, but it seems... kinda sketchy.

Yeah, take it with a big grain of salt. It was cited as as example "Twitter is saying" tweet by the mods at r/worldnews, but the only similar tweets I've been able to find since refer back to that one.

I'll believe it when it shows on a Rybar map.

I'm not going to pretend to know what 🇺🇦+🇺🇦+🇺🇦+🇺🇦+🇺🇦 *🚀 = 🍉 is supposed to mean

Kherson is famous for its watermelons. I presume rocket = HIMARS
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 8:04 PM on October 4, 2022 [4 favorites]

Things are starting to take on a Gulf War 1991 vibe when the Iraqi army just started to give up.
posted by interogative mood at 8:49 PM on October 4, 2022 [3 favorites]

According to this New York Times article, Andriy Yermack is Zelenskyy's Chief of Staff, and the watermelon reference is as ChurchHatesTucker says:

Ukrainian soldiers on the front line claimed they had captured three other villages in the south on Tuesday, a Ukrainian news outlet reported. Andriy Yermak, chief of staff to President Volodymyr Zelensky, appeared to confirm those advances in a Twitter post that displayed Ukrainian flags and a slice of watermelon — a symbol of the Kherson region.

posted by pulposus at 8:51 PM on October 4, 2022 [1 favorite]

The NYT article doesn't say what those three villages are (or maybe I just missed it), but the "other" in "three other villages" is a reference to Davydiv Brid. Like Dudchany, it's way far away from Kherson city, and on the wrong side.

These are references to the gains in areas in the north and east of Kherson Oblast that have happened in the past few days, not to the more recent "massive offensive" that the "Ukraine News" account claimed a few hours ago is happening west of (and a lot closer to) Kherson city.
posted by Flunkie at 9:32 PM on October 4, 2022

Wow, regardless of whether anything is or is not happening to the west, those gains northeast of Kherson city yesterday/today were pretty massive, though: October 3 vs. October 4 (full map), and October 3 vs. October 4 (Kherson-Mykolaiv area).
posted by Flunkie at 9:49 PM on October 4, 2022 [2 favorites]

Swedish Submarine Rescue Ship Heads To Investigate Pipeline Sabotage — Swedish authorities said the submarine rescue ship was heading out amid reports of a new unexplained surge in gas flowing from one pipeline., Joseph Trevithick, The War Zone, Oct 3 2022:

The Swedish Navy is deploying a submarine rescue ship capable of carrying out specialized deep-diving missions as part of its ongoing response to the all-but-certain sabotage of the two Nord Stream underwater gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea last week. Authorities in Sweden separately said that there looked to be a curious and unexplained increase in gas flowing out a breach in one of the pipelines, despite expectations that the contents of both lines would have entirely escaped by this point. Russia, which has denied implications that it was responsible for the apparent attacks and has accused the West without evidence of carrying them out, now says that a portion of the Nord Stream 2 line may still be operable.

Swedish Navy Capt. Jimmie Adamsson told the Associated Press earlier today that a submarine rescue ship would join elements of the country's Coast Guard that have been monitoring the gas bubbling to the surface from the ruptured pipelines and helping ensure vessels can safely navigate through the area since last week. Though the submarine rescue ship was not named, Sweden's Navy only has one vessel dedicated to this mission, the HSwMS Belos.

HSwMS Belos was originally built in the Netherlands as an offshore support vessel before the Swedish Navy purchased it in 1992 and converted it into a submarine rescue platform. The ship, which has since received additional upgrades, can employ deep-diving remotely operated vehicles (ROV) and deploy the rescue submersible URF [Wikipedia], among other capabilities. As such, the ship is ideally suited for supporting various deep-water salvage and other similar activities, in addition to carrying out submarine rescue operations….

More details in the article; see also Wikipedia > HSwMS Belos (A214). A nautical chart of the pipelines’ location, leak positions, and surrounding area is here.
posted by cenoxo at 9:54 PM on October 4, 2022 [4 favorites]

One thing to note: While the Russian Army appears to be fully retreating from fear/poor training, there is still a massive territory east of Kherson they hold. Ukraine will need to ensure they do not outrun supply lines and are disciplined, otherwise they risk a turn of momentum back against them.
posted by glaucon at 6:32 AM on October 5, 2022 [5 favorites]

Ukraine will need to ensure they do not outrun supply lines and are disciplined, otherwise they risk a turn of momentum back against them.

To be fair, it appears that the Ukrainian leadership is well aware of this aspect, given the focus on disrupting Russian supply lines.
posted by Gelatin at 6:42 AM on October 5, 2022 [10 favorites]

If I've understood all the commentators, should the rail links from Russia into the east of Ukraine be cut (which seems to be happening) then the area east of Kherson has to be supplied almost entirely through Crimea via the Kerch strait rail link; at which point maybe Ukraine is given enough ATACMS to drop a few spans towards its middle. Or maybe they'd be close enough to attack it with other capabilities.

And as we've discussed before, if Ukraine takes Kherson then it can cut off the water supply to Crimea again, putting even more pressure on that link.
posted by snuffleupagus at 6:47 AM on October 5, 2022 [7 favorites]

if Ukraine takes Kherson then it can cut off the water supply to Crimea again, putting even more pressure on that link.

They went eight years without that water, so it would be a limited amount of pressure.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 8:36 AM on October 5, 2022 [2 favorites]

Armies get thirsty too.
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:56 AM on October 5, 2022

Crimea is self-sufficient in its residential water use. All of the canal water was for industry and agriculture.

So while they can survive, it decimates economic activity in the region.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 9:46 AM on October 5, 2022 [1 favorite]

Probably best not to get back into all of that in depth, but from the Kyiv Post in 2020:

In June Mikhail Razvozhaev, head of the city’s occupation government, said that water resources in the reservoir had fallen by half compared to last year. He said the city could start rationing water.

Out of curiosity I looked up a US Army Quartermaster powerpoint on expeditionary water needs, but it made too many generic assumptions to be useful (and also didn't make any mention of the practicalities of using snowmelt). And now I have that horrible Pauley Shore movie playing in the back of my head.
posted by snuffleupagus at 9:51 AM on October 5, 2022

Irish man Rory Mason killed in fighting in Ukraine (The Irish Times)

In a statement [his father] said: “Though we are deeply saddened at his death, we are enormously proud of his courage and determination and his selflessness in immediately enlisting to support Ukraine. Rory was never political but he had a deep sense of right and wrong and an inability to turn the other way in the face of injustice.

Rory had no previous military experience.

He was 23 years old.
posted by rog at 9:55 AM on October 5, 2022 [7 favorites]

Kyiv Independent: Putin signs a decree to formalize Russia's illegal seizure of Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant

On Oct. 5, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin signed a decree making an illegal order to transfer Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in Russian-occupied Enerhodar into Russian property.

Ukraine's state nuclear monopoly Energoatom told Suspilne media outlet that the document "has no practical significance."

posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 10:04 AM on October 5, 2022 [3 favorites]

Wendover Productions just posted their latest video, The US Military’s Massive Global Transportation System and it's absolutely stupefying the amount of effort the USM has put into rapid deployment and logistics.

We're so lucky Russia didn't do all this shit and instead pissed it away on villas for the oligarchs.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 10:26 AM on October 5, 2022 [9 favorites]

I mean, the US military budget is more than ten times that of Russia's. There could be just as much corruption, percentage-wise, in the US system, there's just a lot more money going into it.
posted by meowzilla at 11:03 AM on October 5, 2022 [1 favorite]

[we are very lucky that they are so fucking stupid.jpg]
posted by Reverend John at 11:08 AM on October 5, 2022 [3 favorites]

In the US system the graft benefitting the military-industrial complex is (mostly) built in and budgeted for, to the point that saying so is unremarkable (insert Eisenhower reference), so it escapes the label of 'corruption.'
posted by snuffleupagus at 11:21 AM on October 5, 2022 [8 favorites]

There's been talk about the Ukrainian hotline, and instructions to the Russians for how to surrender. Interesting to see it in practice with this tank crew. Of course some claim it's staged propoganda.
posted by Kabanos at 11:59 AM on October 5, 2022 [1 favorite]

It's not just dumbness and graft ... I was shocked to realize just how tiny the Russian economy is. They have 1/10 the GNP of the USA. Their GNP is Canadian-scale, and they have 4x the population of Canada.

You look at the hundreds of legacy Soviet jets and helicopters that they have on paper and it's hard to imagine that RU could afford to keep them well-crewed and well-maintained -- and that's before anyone has scraped a kopek's worth of resellable radium paint from a single Mig-29 altimeter.
posted by Sauce Trough at 12:12 PM on October 5, 2022 [4 favorites]

NYT update on the assasination of Daria Dugina: U.S. Believes Ukrainians Were Behind an Assassination in Russia
posted by kmt at 12:21 PM on October 5, 2022 [1 favorite]

Russia's air force is probably more useful to sell to other countries and threaten NATO than for Russia to actually use in combat, and Russia simply doesn't do enough combined-arms training to use them properly.

Dumb things like this happens: The Russians Just Shot Down One Of Their Own Best Jets, which not only costs them money in the jet and pilot but also makes selling it to other countries harder. They're also probably afraid of sending their new tanks with their highly touted new armor and anti-missile systems because if/when they fail, pictures will be all over the internet.
posted by meowzilla at 12:29 PM on October 5, 2022 [2 favorites]

hundreds of legacy Soviet jets and helicopters

This occurred to me earlier today, where has the Russian Air Force been? Shouldn't they have total Air Control (or whatever the term is) to the point that it isn't even a question?
...what happened there and why hasn't that been talked about whatsoever? (or did I just miss that?)
posted by From Bklyn at 12:31 PM on October 5, 2022

Kyiv Independent
NYT: US believes Ukraine behind killing of daughter of Russian ultra-nationalist.

"According to the New York Times, US intelligence agencies believe that parts of Ukraine's government authorized the car bomb attack that killed Daria Dugina.

Ukraine earlier denied involvement"

NYT link
posted by clavdivs at 12:37 PM on October 5, 2022 [1 favorite]

One thing that has happened is MANPADS. And Russia doesn't have the sort of air force depth that would enable air superiority that the US can maintain at least not against an enemy with significant material backing of NATO et. al. It was a significant topic of discussion in the early days but now is mentioned rarely because it is obvious Russia won't be able to get it.
posted by Mitheral at 12:39 PM on October 5, 2022 [4 favorites]

Russia Adds ‘Top Dogfighter’ Su-35S To Its Aggressor Squadron As Combat Losses Mount In Ukraine . October 5, 2022

'Ukraine's new radar missile 'blinding Russian air defences'.

Ukraine air war examined: A glimpse at the future of air warfare.

Russia’s Air Force Goes Missing At The Worst Possible Time—During Ukraine’s Counteroffensive. Sept. 12. Forbes.

The Russian Air Force Is Back In The Fight In Ukraine. But It’s Not Making Much Of A Difference. Sept.16. Forbes.

Success denied: Finding ground truth in the air war over Ukraine
posted by clavdivs at 12:49 PM on October 5, 2022 [12 favorites]

This occurred to me earlier today, where has the Russian Air Force been? Shouldn't they have total Air Control (or whatever the term is) to the point that it isn't even a question?
...what happened there and why hasn't that been talked about whatsoever? (or did I just miss that?)

So, the Russia/Ukraine 2022 War has been this absolute bonanza of new military tactics that have emerged as people see the way modern technology has made past strategies obsolete. Precision artillery strikes empowered by cheap drones. Tanks and modern armor being continuously pwned by light infantry anti-tank missiles. The equivalent new military theory in air power circles is air denial.

Basically, unlike Desert Storm, the Gulf War or the Kosovo No Fly Zone, where the US and NATO enjoyed complete air superiority and were able to use their air forces to bomb troops with relative impunity, Ukraine/Russia has seen a battlefield that's absolutely saturated with anti aircraft defenses, so that neither side has been able to wield lasting air superiority. Why fly your multi million dollar fighter bomber on a mission into Ukraine if it's going to get lit up by a dozen anti-aircraft missiles as soon as it crosses the border?

This is also one reason why a lot of folks were excited and impressed to see that Ukrainians were able to jury rig NATO HARM missiles to fire from their jets. the AR in HARM stands for anti-radiation and they're intended to lock onto an enemy radar and destroy it, making them very effective killers of anti-aircraft missile launchers, and gives Ukraine the edge in air superiority.

What the Russian/Ukraine conflict has shown is that the balance of power on a battlefield has shifted from guns and bombs to missiles and drones. Effective use of missiles have essentially relegated the Russian Navy and Air Force as non factors in this war, making this conflict a purely ground-based contest against opposing armies, and even here they're often murdering each other through a drone camera as they take turns guiding artillery towards designated GPS coordinates.
posted by bl1nk at 12:51 PM on October 5, 2022 [16 favorites]

"Ukrainian forces advanced rapidly despite the absence of aerial cover and fire support from high-end fighter jets and bombers — two mainstays of the American way of war."
posted by clavdivs at 12:58 PM on October 5, 2022 [4 favorites]

Air denial isn't quite the same paradigm shift as cheap top-attack drones and etc — but to overcome it you need to keep up in the stand-off air defense suppression game; and the total lack of Russian capability there has been something of an eye-opener.

If a NATO air force wanted to establish air superiority over a hypothetically hostile Ukraine's ground defenses, that would happen pretty swiftly (even if updated SAMs would make it more painful than ten years ago or so).
posted by snuffleupagus at 1:01 PM on October 5, 2022 [6 favorites]

Air denial isn't quite the same paradigm shift as cheap top-attack drones and etc.

"along with continued advancements in networked unmanned systems, dual-use robotics, sensors, and advanced materials — place the capabilities needed to contest air control in more adversaries’ hands."
posted by clavdivs at 1:34 PM on October 5, 2022 [2 favorites]

My pet theory is that the Soviet Union heavily invested in anti-aircraft forces as part of a rock-beats-scissors strategy to US's tons-of-carrier-and-airbase-aircraft strategy, and both Ukraine and Russia inherited it. So we have two countries who are both heavy anti-aircraft and light on actual aircraft, fighting each other and neither control the airspace.

US's strategy for defeating all those anti-aircraft forces (paper-beats-rock) is expensive stealth fighters and HARM missiles, the latter of which is being used in Ukraine successfully.
posted by meowzilla at 1:59 PM on October 5, 2022 [6 favorites]

Russia Adds ‘Top Dogfighter’ Su-35S To Its Aggressor Squadron As Combat Losses Mount In Ukraine . October 5, 2022

So the article is little clickbaity. The story is that three whole Su-35S are being deployed to a Russian "aggressor unit." Despite the title, an aggressor unit is not a combat unit, it's a training unit whose role is to act as the enemy during exercises and wargames. These Su-35Ss won't be appearing in the Crimea or Donetsk anytime soon.
posted by Sauce Trough at 2:01 PM on October 5, 2022 [4 favorites]

The Department currently operates more than 11,000 UAS in support of domestic training events and overseas contingency missions.

WATCH: US MILITARY RELEASES SWARM OF MICRO-DRONES FROM F/A-18!.
posted by clavdivs at 2:13 PM on October 5, 2022

WSJ's Yaroslav Trofimov on Twitter

“We’ve got so many trophies that we don’t even know what to do with them. We started off as an infantry battalion, and now we are sort of becoming a mechanized battalion.” My story on how Russia has become Ukraine’s biggest weapons supplier. https://on.wsj.com/3fGedCO

Tweet includes graphic showing that "Russia has become Ukraine’s biggest weapons supplier" is no joke.

The story is paywalled, and mostly covers familiar ground for anyone reading this, but the last paragraph has a perspective I hadn't considered: the psychological boost of using captured Russian material.

“Gaining the trophies gives us a sense of pride and raises everyone’s combat spirits,” said the commander, who used a captured Russian assault rifle in a recent battle during which the battalion seized a village in the Donetsk region

posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 3:03 PM on October 5, 2022 [8 favorites]

The second of clavdivs's recent round of links is interesting: apparently American techs helped the UAF work out how to attach HARMs to their Soviet jets. Previous reportage (and speculation here) was that it was entirely Ukrainian cleverness at work.
posted by Quasirandom at 3:19 PM on October 5, 2022 [4 favorites]

The Intercept: THE CIA THOUGHT PUTIN WOULD QUICKLY CONQUER UKRAINE. WHY DID THEY GET IT SO WRONG?

U.S. intelligence did not recognize the significance of rampant corruption and incompetence in the Putin regime, particularly in both the Russian army and Moscow’s defense industries, the current and former intelligence officials said. U.S. intelligence missed the impact of corrupt insider dealing and deceit among Putin loyalists in Moscow’s defense establishment, which has left the Russian army a brittle and hollow shell.

posted by Pirate-Bartender-Zombie-Monkey at 3:36 PM on October 5, 2022 [4 favorites]

NYT: US believes Ukraine behind killing of daughter of Russian ultra-nationalist.

Afterward, American officials admonished Ukrainian officials over the assassination, they said.

Your sons flew that enchanted car of yours to Surrey and back assassinated the Russian ultra-nationalist daughter of a Russian ultra-nationalist propagandist last night.
posted by Reverend John at 3:43 PM on October 5, 2022 [1 favorite]

There's been talk about the Ukrainian hotline, and instructions to the Russians for how to surrender. Interesting to see it in practice with this tank crew. Of course some claim it's staged propoganda.

I hope the hold music is Swan Lake.
posted by ocschwar at 6:45 PM on October 5, 2022 [5 favorites]

Teegeeack stole my thunder, but here's the relevant section from Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 5 | Institute for the Study of War

Russian authorities detained the manager of several milblogger telegram channels on October 5, indicating that the Kremlin is likely setting limits on what criticism is allowed in the domestic Russian information space. Alexander Khunshtein, the deputy secretary of the General Council of Putin’s political party, United Russia, published footage on October 5 showing Russian authorities detaining Alexei Slobodenyuk.[20] Slobodenyuk is an employee of Wagner financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Patriot media group and the manager of several milblogger telegrams, the most prominent of which are “Release Z Kraken” and “Skaner.” The telegram channel “Skaner” has featured criticism of major state officials and military personnel, the most prominent of whom are Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, State Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin, and Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov. Russian authorities detained Slobodenyuk on accusations of fraud. His detention suggests that the Kremlin is attempting to set boundaries for which criticism is allowed in the information space and on which high-ranking officials milbloggers and journalists can criticize—Defense Minister Shoigu, Putin‘s likely scapegoat-in-waiting, now appears to be fair game, whereas officials close to Putin such as Lavrov and Putin’s spokesperson are off-limits.

posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 7:42 PM on October 5, 2022 [3 favorites]

"So, the Russia/Ukraine 2022 War has been this absolute bonanza of new military tactics that have emerged as people see the way modern technology has made past strategies obsolete"

I'd argue Ukraine is using very traditional combined-arms tactics really, really well, and taking advantage of new technology to do so. But the tactics themselves are traditional. Ukraine did them well; Russia did them startlingly poorly (you can't send out mechanized artillery with no infantry support to follow behind!). Ukraine taking advantage of novel technology is huge, but equally huge was Russia's total failure to observe the last 100 years of combined-arms tactics. Or the last 2500 years of "Look, you can't send in shock troops with nothing boring behind them."

Talked to some senior, mostly-retired US military guys in May/June, who were all like "JULIUS CAESAR KNEW THE FAST CAVALRY ATTACK REQUIRED INFANTRY SUPPORT RIGHT BEHIND. ALEXANDER THE GREAT KNEW." They could not get over the stunning hubris and bad planning that would send in tanks/mechanized artillery without infantry right behind to control the territory. So like, not new ... just very, very old tactics very, very badly executed.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 8:55 PM on October 5, 2022 [19 favorites]

The other video linked in that Reddit thread of a POV getting a kebab and medical treatment really touched me because it's such a morning-after-a-bad-night-at-the-village-disco vibe. "Yeah, got a kebab from Kemal down by the church. Now eat up, Pavel got the first aid kit and we'll fix your leg and check your wallet to make sure we drive you home to the right place. Sure I know what I'm doing, I've been in the Volunteer Fire Brigade since high school, so shut up and drink your tea because then we'll be telling you all the ways you were a fucking idiot last night."
posted by I claim sanctuary at 10:12 PM on October 5, 2022 [5 favorites]

Apparently both Sweden and Denmark have to give the green light if there are to be repairs done on NordStream: Högerpartier kritiska till att reparera Nord Stream 2 (DeepL translation).

Sweden just had an election, a new more right-wing government (still slightly left of the US left wing) is being formed. Denmark also will have a snap election now, as the sitting government is otherwise facing a vote of no confidence due to, of all things, an illegal decision to put down all the minks in the country's mink farms in 2020 due to COVID mutation fears. The new governments will have a lot on their plate from day 1.
posted by Harald74 at 11:50 PM on October 5, 2022 [1 favorite]

I claim sanctuary: The other video linked in that Reddit thread of a POV getting a kebab and medical treatment really touched me

I'd like to see that, can we get a link please? I tried wading through the Reddit thread but I'm not familiar and did not see it.
posted by Too-Ticky at 12:00 AM on October 6, 2022 [1 favorite]

POW with kebab video. Warnings for visible serious wound, personal information in documents (Donetsk guy, they've been pressganging people for months there), guy clearly shocked but coherent enough to eat and cooperate with treatment. Medical professional in the comments mentioned the wound may be serious enough that he might lose that leg.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 12:36 AM on October 6, 2022 [3 favorites]

Sweden just had an election, a new more right-wing government (still slightly left of the US left wing)

Not to derail, but this is slightly misleading. Sweden is not going to, say, dismantle its welfare state or ban abortion, because the Overton window does not move that fast, much in the way that the US could not become a Scandinavian-style social democracy within one term of anyone governing. Meanwhile, the largest party in the right-wing coalition is an actual “reformed” neo-Nazi party, which was established by a SS volunteer; the reforms involve candidates wearing nonthreatening pastel-coloured sweaters and doing their best to not say the quiet part out loud. Their platform involves mass deportations, eliminating permanent residency and making it a lot harder to get Swedish citizenship (doubling the waiting time and adding onerous language and cultural tests), as well as the usual angry-motorist poujadism like cutting diesel taxes and scrapping Sweden's high-speed rail program (which has been agreed on this week).
posted by acb at 1:28 AM on October 6, 2022 [12 favorites]

In Denmark, the election is a bit of a horror show. I'm worried because the far right may get a lot more influence and do a lot of damage. BUT, unlike in the US, UK, France and Italy, as far as I can see, there are no Russia allies up for election. There are a couple in the current parliament, with no influence, but they are leaving politics.
At the end of the day, I can't see any good reason for repairing the pipelines. When this is all over, I hope EU dependency on fossil fuels is nearing its end. Nordstream 2 was already very unpopular, and almost wasn't allowed. Sovjet troops occupied Bornholm a year after the Germans were thrown out after WWII, and Danes have an almost East-Block like suspicion of Russians.

People here who are fearful of a cold winter because they depend on gas furnaces are not demanding a return to Russian gas, but for government subsidies for changing to other forms of energy, such as district heating from waste incinerators or thermal energy. Everyone seems to be aware that we have to out phase fossil fuels. And we are blessed with lots of wind. Yesterday afternoon, electricity was free for several hours, because there was a surplus of wind. There will be more days like that. Shut off the central heating and bake a loaf and a roast and a cake in your electric oven instead.

That said, if the German government asks nicely, any Danish government will take their proposal very seriously. We are neighbors and friends, after all.
posted by mumimor at 3:09 AM on October 6, 2022 [10 favorites]

Comedy trio Foil Arms & Hogg are thinking about the Russian mapmakers.
posted by TheophileEscargot at 3:10 AM on October 6, 2022 [7 favorites]

An interesting Twitter thread about “suicide”(single use) drones being used by Russia:
Tyler Rogoway
posted by From Bklyn at 3:21 AM on October 6, 2022 [1 favorite]

Hypothetically speaking, if the Iranian regime fell, would that be likely to shut off the supply of terror weapons to states like Russia?
posted by acb at 4:37 AM on October 6, 2022 [1 favorite]

Hypothetically speaking, if the Iranian regime fell, would that be likely to shut off the supply of terror weapons to states like Russia?

If the Iranian regime fall, it will be the beginning of a long civil war, and both (or all) sides will be looking for cash. Whoever has the weapons could still be selling them.
posted by mumimor at 4:50 AM on October 6, 2022 [5 favorites]

the capabilities needed to contest air control in more adversaries’ hands

This is a very good article, but the air aspects still seem more iterative to me, and the lack of Russian standoff capability is remarkable given that things have been moving in this direction for a while.

In contrast to the far more satisfying SEAD experience in Desert Storm, the effort to neutralize Serb air defenses did not go nearly as well as hoped. The Serbs kept most of their surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) in standby mode with their radars not emitting, prompting concern that they were attempting to draw NATO aircraft down to lower altitudes where they could be more easily engaged. The understandable reluctance of enemy SAM operators to emit and thus render themselves cooperative targets made them much harder to find and attack, forcing allied aircrews to remain constantly alert to the radar-guided SAM threat. By the same token, the enemy’s heavy man-portable air defense system (MANPADS) and antiaircraft artillery (AAA) threat forced allied aircrews to bomb from above 15,000 ft, for the most part, to remain outside their lethal envelopes..

-NATO's Air War for Kosovo, A Strategic and Operational Assessment, RAND 2001
posted by snuffleupagus at 5:56 AM on October 6, 2022

This is a very good article, but the air aspects still seem more iterative to me, and the lack of Russian standoff capability is remarkable given that things have been moving in this direction for a while.

Yes, this was a case where the expectation was that the Russian air force had the capabilities of a modern large military and would therefore be able to establish near-total air dominance over a smaller country in relatively short order. Instead, they simply didn't have that capability and seven-plus months later the Ukrainian air force is still at around 80% capacity and the Russians basically don't fly into Ukrainian-controlled air space, which is amazing and completely unexpected.
posted by Dip Flash at 6:45 AM on October 6, 2022 [2 favorites]

An interesting Twitter thread about “suicide”(single use) drones being used by Russia:
Tyler Rogoway

Just an FYI. I know Thread Reader makes the threads easier to read but the writer loses a lot of engagement metrics and exposure on Twitter runs on engagement so please link to original tweets.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 7:59 AM on October 6, 2022 [8 favorites]

I just looked at a tabloid site because I wanted to check on right-wing talking points up to our coming election. But I found other news: Norway is closing its harbors to Russian trawlers and a Russian submarine is coming through the Baltic towards the Atlantic.
I guess Harald74 will tell us more about the situation in Norway in a bit.
The submarine story is an example of what I wrote above about sailing through Danish waters: amateurs have seen the submarine and called in, and the tabloid has asked the Danish Defence Ministry if they can confirm it. They can. It does seem the submarine is being quite demonstrative.
posted by mumimor at 8:09 AM on October 6, 2022 [5 favorites]

Twitter runs on advertisements and clickbait. Please link to Thread Reader instead.
posted by ryanrs at 8:21 AM on October 6, 2022 [13 favorites]

The sub is meant to be noticed, they're waving their nuclear torpedo around; Mil-Tube is taking the bait and milking it for views.
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:31 AM on October 6, 2022 [2 favorites]

Twitter runs on ads. The twitter accounts who aren't themselves well-known despite their sectoral expertise runs on engagement.
posted by cendawanita at 8:33 AM on October 6, 2022 [15 favorites]

If the Iranian regime fall, it will be the beginning of a long civil war, and both (or all) sides will be looking for cash.

Things would get chaotic pretty quickly, were that to happen amidst the latest OPEC machinations.
posted by snuffleupagus at 9:04 AM on October 6, 2022 [1 favorite]

Ukraine News24 footage of Russian BMP-2 surrendering
posted by adamvasco at 10:21 AM on October 6, 2022 [2 favorites]

r/NCD explaining Russian supply problems using profanity and slides.
posted by interogative mood at 10:46 AM on October 6, 2022 [3 favorites]

r/NCD explaining Russian supply problems using profanity and slides.

I'm convinced it's Perun's alt account because only an Aussie can correctly swear that fucking much.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 11:46 AM on October 6, 2022 [2 favorites]

The sub is meant to be noticed

"Hey everybody, despite what you may be thinking, we still have at least one operable submarine!"
posted by Flunkie at 12:28 PM on October 6, 2022 [6 favorites]

Would be funny if it had a mechanical failure and had to just float around, drifting for a week or so...
posted by Windopaene at 12:55 PM on October 6, 2022 [1 favorite]

I'm convinced it's Perun's alt account because only an Aussie can correctly swear that fucking much.

I don't know; a Russian (or fluent Russian speaker) could probably get pretty close.
posted by acb at 1:30 PM on October 6, 2022

Apocalypse Canceled: Russian “Nuclear Train” Likely Bound for Training.
posted by clavdivs at 3:37 PM on October 6, 2022 [2 favorites]

"Hey everybody, despite what you may be thinking, we still have at least one operable submarine!"

The first headline I saw on the subject on Twitter said lost sub. Now that I could believe (and it got me to click - nothingburger. Naval vessel does what naval vessels do.)
posted by ctmf at 3:50 PM on October 6, 2022

"There is another matter....one that I'm reclutant to....."
posted by snuffleupagus at 4:39 PM on October 6, 2022 [4 favorites]

Marcus Kolga 🇺🇦 on Twitter

Canadian protestors hold referendum to annex the Russian Embassy in Ottawa. Hilarious. #NAFOexpansion

Includes video.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 7:08 PM on October 6, 2022 [9 favorites]

Since a number of Russian soldiers reportedly suffered frostbite already in February/March, and they've consistently botched their logistics efforts ever since, I'm quietly optimistic that the coming winter will be really hard for them. "But Ukraine isn't that cold!" No, but it's fairly cold and wet, and that in many ways is worse than extreme cold, which is always dry. My 2 cents is that we'll see a number of cases of frostbite and trench foot, but the real hit to Russian combat power will be the drop in morale. Their soldiers will be going on fewer patrols and spending less time manning the trenches due to extreme discomfort. They have less opportunity to warm up, dry out and make hot food and drinks because there's always a drone with thermal imaging about somewhere, so making a fire is a risky preposition.
posted by Harald74 at 12:24 AM on October 7, 2022 [4 favorites]

Forecast night-time temperature this coming week for occupied eastern Ukraine is as low as 4 and 5°C.

Eating cold food in a damp hole in the ground will not be pleasant, surely.
posted by UN at 12:59 AM on October 7, 2022 [1 favorite]

It's been a particularly quickly chilly autumn in Eastern Europe this year. 4C at 8am today when I opened the balcony and even the cats stopped for a moment before running outside. I don't envy anyone trying to survive outside without proper equipment - there's a reason we all have traditional architecture big on giant heating stoves you can actually sleep on, and sheepskin lined outer clothing.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 1:15 AM on October 7, 2022 [10 favorites]

Russian MT-LB was ambushed by Ukrainian soldiers and crashed into a house. The leg of a Russian soldier is squeezed by a collapsed wall. When a Ukrainian fighter tries to help, the Russian asks to finish him off, to which he receives an answer - we are not you.

(the most violent action is a punch in the Russian's face; also there are a few smears of blood on bricks from the busted wall)

And three comments explain the punch:

THE REASON why he was punched was when the Russian said he was from Kostroma. The Ukrainian punched the Russian and said "Then why are you in Kupyansk"

He said kinda: “Kostroma, for fuck's sake, [then why are you] in my fucking Kupyansk?!”
“My” is an important word there

I just looked up Kostroma and it's northeast of Moscow by some hundreds of miles. Over a thousand miles from Ukraine. The Ukrainian soldier basically punches the Russian in the face and says "why did you come all the way here to kill my people?"

posted by Stoneshop at 2:16 AM on October 7, 2022 [8 favorites]

Nobel peace prize to human rights organisations in Ukraine, Belarus and Russia. The Centre for Civil Liberties has been crucial in documenting Russian war crimes, while the Russial Memorial organisation was shut down by court order in April and had been doing great work for over three decades. Memorial was also one of the only Russian groups pushing for acknowledgement of Soviet civil rights infringements and internal government misdeeds, and they've been perennial Peace Prize candidates for over a decade.

The Nobel Committee denied this being a particular birthday gift for Putin, but I hope he chokes on it.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 3:06 AM on October 7, 2022 [11 favorites]

Joe Biden echoed my comment about this being the most dangerous time in terms of danger of nuclear war since the Cuban Missile Crisis.

From this coincidence henceforth I shall call him Mefi’s own Joe Biden or as we know him clavdivs :-). I mean just look at that posting history.
posted by interogative mood at 9:18 AM on October 7, 2022 [4 favorites]

The Telegraph: Russia-Ukraine war latest: Putin sacks second commander in a week after losses in 'annexed' Kherson

Russia has sacked its second general in a week after humiliating losses in the southern region of Kherson.

Colonel-General Alexander Chaiko, Commander of the Eastern Military District, was fired in the latest reshuffle of the Kremlin's top brass, Russian media reports.

On Monday it was reported the Western military district commander, Colonel-General Alexander Zhuravlyov, had been replaced after Kyiv recaptured the strategic hub of Lyman in north eastern Donetsk region.

Public registers say Lieutenant-General Rustam Muradov, who previously served in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, has been appointed to head the Eastern Military District.

posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 9:56 AM on October 7, 2022 [1 favorite]

"How does the Russo-Ukrainian War end?" (Tim Snyder).

Spoiler: conventionally.
posted by mazola at 10:44 AM on October 7, 2022 [5 favorites]

Al Jazeera | Opinion | Putin’s five fatal mistakes in Ukraine: And how Biden’s hypocrisy feeds the Russian leader’s hubris.
posted by Quasirandom at 10:48 AM on October 7, 2022

how Biden’s hypocrisy feeds the Russian leader’s hubris.

Biden wasn't President when the things he's accusing of being hypocritical of occurred.
posted by 1970s Antihero at 11:03 AM on October 7, 2022 [5 favorites]

Nope -- the author does do a rhetorical slight-of-hand to conflate American political leadership of the past couple decades with the current American political leader.
posted by Quasirandom at 11:23 AM on October 7, 2022 [1 favorite]

Looking at my favorite interactive map, I gotta ask: why are the Russians hucking shahed-136s at Odessa? That thing is tiny, around 200kg, it's not really packing a big wallop.

Are they aiming at high-value targets? Or are those little pinpricks meant to set up bigger attacks? maybe part of an SEAD effort?
posted by Sauce Trough at 11:35 AM on October 7, 2022

Based on what I've read (which is unfortunately mostly vague and quite possibly in part propaganda), I get the impression that they're just being used to get well beyond the front and into civilian areas, I presume to hopefully (from the Russian point of view) break Ukrainian support for the war.
posted by Flunkie at 11:45 AM on October 7, 2022

why are the Russians hucking shahed-136s at Odessa?

And Kiev, for some reason? Even dumber. ISW had a one-or-two-line mention of this the other day. Terror attacks are meant to have a disproportionate morale and political effect than the damage done and resources expended, so that would be a smart move for a (perceived) small, un-resourced combatant. Surprise the enemy, undermine their support, make them think they've maybe bitten off more than they can chew and should re-evaluate fighting. Make supporters who are "safe" far behind the front lines and not in the military have some skin in the game, betting that the average person will not tolerate any personal danger.

This is a terrible, terrible strategy for Russia. Ukraine has plenty of skin in the game already. Russia is not percieved to be small and un-resourced. They have choices. If that's what they're going for, they're failing miserably. It's only making the population double the resolve on getting these dicks out of their country.
posted by ctmf at 11:56 AM on October 7, 2022 [1 favorite]

It could also be they're ordered with the intent of hitting key logistics hubs and command/intelligence centers, and whoever's executing those orders... just don't have that kind of information, so they're attacking something to comply? Kind of hard to justify apartment buildings though. These aren't, like, "oops" weapons, they have cameras on them and are steerable.
posted by ctmf at 12:04 PM on October 7, 2022

ctmf: These aren't, like, "oops" weapons, they have cameras on them

The Shahed-136 doesn't. They're dumb, preprogrammed flying thingies with an explosive load. You couldn't even rightly call them loitering munitions, as that would assume some kind of either remote control and a video link, or sufficient smarts to identify a target and dive down on one if it detects one.

Tactically I consider them similar to the German Vergeltungswaffe-1 in WW2, trying to terrorize civilians. And extrapolating from the way those were dealt with we'll probably soon see ultralights, the aerial equivalent of a tactical buggy, with some catapult-like device chucking balls of twine into the Shahed's propeller.
posted by Stoneshop at 12:32 PM on October 7, 2022 [2 favorites]

terror attacks? seriously?

an RAF terror raid of the 1940s would put hundreds of planes over a single German city and drop literal millions of kilograms of incendiaries and high explosives in a single night ... with at best (for the RAF) inconclusive long-term impacts on civilian morale.

More comparably, the Germans launched thousands of V1's at London, each with a ton of warhead, killing thousands ... with the net result being more urgency in the UK to finish off the war, not less.

and the Russians think that a handful of dinky drones with 50-kg warheads are gonna make the Ukranians sue for peace.

on top of that, the Ukranians seem to be quite adept at shooting them down, making Shahed-136 terror attacks even dumber in practice than in theory.
posted by Sauce Trough at 1:58 PM on October 7, 2022 [3 favorites]

The cost of shooting down a Shahed-136 is many times more than the cost of launching one. So for as long as a Russian general's AliExpress account keeps working, they'll keep flying them over as a low-level background annoyance.
posted by scruss at 2:27 PM on October 7, 2022 [2 favorites]

If you lob an AMRAAM or Patriot at one, yes. Though OTOH, this is Ukraine, and if anyone comes up with a simple hack for knocking a few zeroes off shooting one down, it'll be them.
posted by acb at 3:31 PM on October 7, 2022 [1 favorite]

Home on sound? I read their engines are very loud, you'd think that'd be pretty distinctive against the backdrop of the sky from a DSP perspective (I am analogizing from a very workmanlike understanding of sonar). Even if you can't shoot em down, a directional early warning from something like the shot-spotter systems used in cities could render them much less effective.
posted by snuffleupagus at 4:44 PM on October 7, 2022 [1 favorite]

I don't think they're really thinking in a strategic sense. I think it's just a tool they can use that will hurt people so they use it. They've got a hammer so they went looking for nails, it doesn't matter that they're useless nails but the tool must be used, otherwise why even have it? There might be some kind of strategic goal they've convinced themselves is why they did it but it's just a rationalization.

Honestly, most of these weird "tactics" make a lot more sense if you imagine the decision makers and mostly Putin, as playground bullies all grown up and just inflicting pain on others for it's own sake and covering it in their minds with some bullshit rationalization.
posted by VTX at 4:56 PM on October 7, 2022 [6 favorites]

I don't usually repost jokes from Reddit, but..

Vladimir Putin was being briefed by one of his top generals.

"I've good news and bad news for you this morning, sir."

"Let's hear the good news," the president replied.

"Intelligence reports indicate that the latest additions to the Ukrainian arsenal are damaged and outdated, and many won't pose any threat to us at all."

"That's excellent! Finally, things might be starting to turn our way! What's the bad the news?"

The general shifted in his seat and looked down at the table. "A large amount of our best weapons and munitions have just been captured, sir."

posted by Nerd of the North at 5:52 PM on October 7, 2022 [16 favorites]

In tactics its called harassing fire. The Bombing of Hamburg is what green lighted the V-1. The V-1 was a terror weapon because it was new, remote, highly inaccurate but still killed thousands and could not be stopped though I believe a few planes nudged up to tip the fins.

"Ukrainian sources also reported that Ukrainian forces shot down Russian Shahed-136 drones and other unspecified loitering munitions in Mykolaiv and Odesa Oblasts. Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov reported that Ukrainian forces struck and destroyed Russian ammunition depots in Melitopol on October 6."
posted by clavdivs at 6:13 PM on October 7, 2022

The inaccurate drone use against civilian targets is reminiscent of Russian helicopters being used to "lob" unguided rockets semi-randomly, recorded here in the early months of the war: Russian Attack Helicopters Are Now Wildly Lobbing Rockets Over Ukraine (Updated)
posted by meowzilla at 7:50 PM on October 7, 2022 [1 favorite]

There is a weird "we're reaching the bottom of the barrel" sort of spirit to all this. Is it a ruse, or is it reality? Maybe they have things they're saving? Or is that being far to generous?
posted by hippybear at 8:15 PM on October 7, 2022 [1 favorite]

The war has been going on for over seven months now, and it's been this way for, what, six and a half of them or so? If it's a ruse, they're playing the reaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaly long game.
posted by Flunkie at 8:21 PM on October 7, 2022 [4 favorites]

whoah. this looks like a big deal:

Massive Explosion on the Kerch Bridge in Crimea
posted by Sauce Trough at 9:03 PM on October 7, 2022 [13 favorites]

more Kerch Bridge images and video on reddit
posted by Ansible at 9:08 PM on October 7, 2022 [1 favorite]

Yeah I wondered when that would happen - seems like an obvious thing to do (or have done months ago)
posted by mbo at 9:11 PM on October 7, 2022

Yeah I wondered when that would happen - seems like an obvious thing to do (or have done months ago)

I think that there are diplomatic things in play that give this Kerch strike complexities above the battlefield.

I don't think Ukraine could/would hit the Kerch Bridge without Uncle Sam's explicit nod.
posted by Sauce Trough at 9:18 PM on October 7, 2022

The Kerch bridge is a parallel bridge and it looks like one of the road decks is still whole so it might not be 100% disabled.
posted by Mitheral at 9:28 PM on October 7, 2022

actually, scratch that "could" above. Ukraine could have straight up put a bomb on the burning train. No help from USA needed, just some seriously gutsy infiltrators.

But now I will cease speculating and wait for real news.
posted by Sauce Trough at 9:28 PM on October 7, 2022

The Kerch bridge is a parallel bridge and it looks like one of the road decks is still whole so it might not be 100% disabled.

No trains are going to be crossing it, though, which is a big deal even if motor vehicles can.
posted by Flunkie at 9:52 PM on October 7, 2022

It looks like the road bridge has collapsed although it appears to be at the level of the water, not below it so they could still do rescue operations to help anyone that was in vehicles.

A few images
posted by Jane the Brown at 10:02 PM on October 7, 2022

How much failure can Putin withstand?

Slava Ukraini!
posted by Windopaene at 10:16 PM on October 7, 2022

Maaaaybe you can drive lighter vehicles on the remaining road lane, but I wouldn't want to be the driver of the first truck that tries. Between that and the buckling under the burning train, that's it for military resupplying over the bridge. Lovely thing to wake up to.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 10:38 PM on October 7, 2022 [2 favorites]

Another video from right after it happened. This is a huge symbolic win for Ukraine.
posted by interogative mood at 10:52 PM on October 7, 2022 [1 favorite]

Oh I've been waiting for this. It's 7:56 AM here and there's a bottle of special vodka from Lviv in the cabinet that's been waiting for the right moment. Congratulations to Ukraine.

Wasn't Putin's birthday yesterday? This gift seems belated. Not that I'm complaining.
posted by UN at 11:02 PM on October 7, 2022 [7 favorites]

Twitter thread on the Kerch Bridge by Mike Ryan (ex Australian army general and strategist)
posted by rongorongo at 11:16 PM on October 7, 2022 [1 favorite]

Meanwhile, from the official Ukraine Twitter account:

sick burn

Sometimes, I wonder if this is the stuff that's gonna be in future history books (or holobooks or whatever). Or if would be the kind of trivia that only the nerdiest, most hardcore, early 22th Century history buff would know. Or if it's just gonna be a blip that's lost in time and that one day no one will remember that on the day the Crimea Bridge was destroyed (perhaps even a turning point in the war, fingers crossed), the official Ukraine Twitter account tweeted -- in a sort of meta textual way -- what may only be described as a truly sick burn, the words "sick burn".
posted by mhum at 12:01 AM on October 8, 2022 [11 favorites]

Oh also it was on Putin's birthday.
posted by mhum at 12:09 AM on October 8, 2022

There are 2 bridges there - looks like the higher one is is a railway bridge (those are some railway tanker cars burning). Looks like 2 lanes (one direction) are in the drink, who knows what state the rest is in - worst case the railway might still be OK, so might half the roadway
posted by mbo at 12:20 AM on October 8, 2022 [1 favorite]

mbo: who knows what state the rest is in - worst case the railway might still be OK, so might half the roadway

The railway bridge will be far from OK, steel that's been subject to high temperatures undergoes some property changes. One of those properties is tensile strength.

Even if the Russians limit themselves to replacing the buckled tracks they'll be looking at a few days of the bridge being out, after which they will have to test how much the damaged section can still carry. So, shorter trains with lighter loco's, and at a lower speed.

Hello, logistics bottleneck.

Replacing the affected spans entirely will take a couple of months and require at least two large floating cranes extremely juicy targets.
posted by Stoneshop at 1:05 AM on October 8, 2022 [5 favorites]

Yes, probably - that last video looks like there is a break on both sides of the road, the side closest to the rail bridge is probably reparable with a bailey bridge or some sort
posted by mbo at 1:14 AM on October 8, 2022

Trying to piece together accounts from footage and people who seem to know what they are talking about: looks like two large, pre-planted charges - one on each bridge - under the road or railway spans and detonated by someone waiting for the fuel train to be overhead on the rail bridge. If that is the case then it would have taken some truly impressive planning.
posted by rongorongo at 1:19 AM on October 8, 2022 [1 favorite]

Stoneshop, railroad rails are hot rolled. They are not heat treated.
posted by ryanrs at 1:46 AM on October 8, 2022

Oh, and so new, built by the Russians AFTER they annexed Crimea - Ukraine has no sunk cost there
posted by mbo at 2:12 AM on October 8, 2022

rongorongo: looks like two large, pre-planted charges - one on each bridge - under the road or railway spans

If you were to sabotage the railway bridge the best way to do so would be to demolish one of the pillars, preferably while a loaded train is over it (or is approaching and within stopping distance). The damage on the railway bridge as you can now see it is all from the fire, and from the CCTV video it appears there was a huge explosion on the northbound roadway, which was powerful enough to set several fuel waggons on fire as well.

In the video there are two trucks (and a few passenger cars) driving towards the inclined section. At the moment the first truck is near the start of the incline there's a huge fireball which seems to happen on top of the road deck, not under (where a planted explosive would be placed). Prime suspect to me is that first truck.
posted by Stoneshop at 2:13 AM on October 8, 2022 [3 favorites]

And a glorious day it is! Putin's birthday was yesterday, and my personal suspicion is that this was intended for his birthday, but the train was delayed for a bit.
posted by Harald74 at 2:17 AM on October 8, 2022 [1 favorite]

ryanrs: railroad rails are hot rolled

It's not just the tracks themselves that are affected by the blaze. It's a fuel train, and burning fuel has been leaking down both into the spans (reinforced concrete, but still) and on the outside, destroying cabling and other infra.

I've seen the effects of a burning passenger carriage on railway tracks on a bridge (some dimwit passenger pulled the emergency brake while the train was on it), and of a couple of car transport waggons with burning cars on them, and in both cases the affected rail tracks were replaced. But maybe the Russian railways have a more relaxed attitude towards such damage than the Dutch railways have.
posted by Stoneshop at 2:26 AM on October 8, 2022

Link to Russian press article from 3 months ago which claimed the Kerch bridge was invulnerable to attack because of its 20 modes of protection - including combat dolphins.

Evidence of a parallel attack on the railway line at Melitopol (the alternative route from Russia to Ukraine) is interesting.
posted by rongorongo at 4:04 AM on October 8, 2022 [2 favorites]

Teegeeack AV Club Secretary: Here's a video showing the damage clearly by the light of day.

One thing fairly clearly revealed by that video is that the blast occurred on, not under, the roadway. About 10 seconds in you can see the (more or less intact) southbound carriageway, with crash barrier pillars bent outward and the barrier itself gone. Other damage visible points (literally as well as figuratively) in the same direction.
posted by Stoneshop at 4:13 AM on October 8, 2022

This one (linked above) is interesting - at 0:25 you can see something coming under the bridge just before the explosion .... some people think it's a vessel, I think it's more like bow wash, or just waves
posted by mbo at 4:27 AM on October 8, 2022 [1 favorite]

The memes, they are glorious.
posted by rory at 4:50 AM on October 8, 2022 [2 favorites]

We'll need your table
posted by BrStekker at 5:12 AM on October 8, 2022 [17 favorites]

What is the price of defeat? Few episodes in the Ukraine war illustrate this more vividly than the five-month battle for the village of Dovhenke, an episode which likely cost hundreds of lives but was entirely futile for Russia
posted by Harald74 at 5:17 AM on October 8, 2022 [6 favorites]

There are conflicting reports about what happened at the Crimean bridge

Some say it is hilarious, and others are saying it’s fucking hilarious
posted by Etrigan at 7:06 AM on October 8, 2022 [7 favorites]

the side closest to the rail bridge is probably reparable with a bailey bridge or some sort

Apparently sufficiently intact to let private cars across now, ominously showing those as leaving Crimea.
posted by Stoneshop at 7:49 AM on October 8, 2022 [1 favorite]

A reminder from 2016 on how the bridge was built in the first place.

Putin’s Kerch Bridge to Crimea: No Money, Dodgy Insurance & No Accountability [Kharkiv Human Rights Protection Group]

Russia’s state-controlled media has responded to Wednesday’s reports of problems with financing the grandiose plans for a bridge between Russia and Crimea with a flurry of articles denying any problems or simply acting as if it was business as usual. The upbeat reports are on as shaky ground as the Kerch Bridge itself since a new report informs that the construction work is insured by an obscure Crimean company that nobody has heard of.

The Kerch Strait Bridge has been dubbed ‘Putin’s Bridge’, after Russian President Vladimir Putin. It was he who was behind Russia’s invasion and annexation of Crimea, and he is therefore personally embarrassed by the overwhelming evidence that Crimea really is in every way dependent on and organically linked with Ukraine. Whatever the dangers and the likely damage to the environment, he will not abandon plans for this bridge over the Kerch Strait from Russia to Crimea. As Crimean journalist (in exile) Pavel Kazarin put it after earlier reports of delay, this is “because it’s not only an imperial project, but a personal one”

If Putin could get away with using massive corruption and total lack of concern about the environmentally and economically disastrous consequences for the area and its residents of holding the Winter Olympics in sub-tropical Sochi, the situation now is quite different. However much money Russia may spend pushing its narrative about Crimea, it remains Ukrainian territory.

The entire construction of the Kerch bridge has gone to a firm owned by a Putin crony Arkady Rotenberg because there were not many takers and for good reason....

Hardly the most important thing right now, but I guess we'll see if the insurance pays out (if there was any, after construction completed).
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:29 AM on October 8, 2022 [4 favorites]

So, once again the Russian side is throwing theories around about how the strike happened, just as with the Moskva.

And once again the motive appears to be that they don't want to admit that there were Ukrainian forces positioned close enough to perform the strike. And I have to wonde. If there are Ukrainian special forces teams, with ammo, positioned behind Russian lines, possibly hiding among partisans, and the Kremlin is constantly trying to cover it up, that should make things very uneasy to all the mid-level officers in the war zone right next to these operators.

Kyiv is staying tight lipped about it, and I expect they, and the Pentagon, and NATO, will stay tight lipped until the war is over and something happens to make Ukrainian sovereignty unchallenged-able permanently. Which may be beyond my life expectancy.
posted by ocschwar at 8:32 AM on October 8, 2022

Meanwhile, in Moscow, the National Guard (which presumably means Putin's personally commanded Rosgvardia) and police are arresting military personnel.

I'm sure it's nothing significant.
posted by acb at 8:46 AM on October 8, 2022 [1 favorite]

Liveuamap on Twitter

Adviser to the head of office of President of Ukraine now suggests that explosion at the bridge was a result of internal fight between enforcement agencies in Russia

Links to:

Михайло Подоляк on Twitter

Now seriously. FSB/PMC try to eliminate leadership of Defense Ministry/GHQ. Before personnel change, FSB is in knockdown — missed Putin's bridge explosion. Defense Ministry can now blame FSB for the future South loss. Isn’t it obvious who made an explosion? Truck arrived from RF.

posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 9:10 AM on October 8, 2022

clavdivs > WATCH: US MILITARY RELEASES SWARM OF MICRO-DRONES FROM F/A-18!.

Broken video link — alternate: Watch U.S. F/A-18 Hornets Unleash Swarm of Mini-Drones in First Test, The Aviationist, January 11, 2017.
posted by cenoxo at 9:11 AM on October 8, 2022 [3 favorites]

First, the fact that the bridge hadn't been demolished suggested ineffective partisan resistance in Crimea / lack of infiltrators in RF. The obviously most important things for them to accomplish are knocking out that rail link and blowing oil refineries and pipelines, neither of which is happening.

Second, I wonder if this might provide the excuse needed for a mini-offramp. I imagine the PR exercise going like this: "Terrorists" damaged the KSB. It will be months for it to be fully repaired. Because of fighting along other rail lines and highways, it will be impossible for RF to supply the civilian heating and food needs of Kherson City once temperatures drop. As a humanitarian imperative, we are negotiating a withdrawal from Kherson west of the Dnipro.

Getting his troops out of the meat-grinder that is Kherson is imperative for Putin; it allows him to reinforce the other faltering lines and buy time to train newly mobilized troops. Defending the Dnipro will be much easier than other rivers just because of how big it is and the burden the UAF will have in organizing the civilian problems and clearing explosives. This doesn't require acknowledging a military defeat. Ukraine will be politically compelled to accept the negotiated withdrawal even if militarily they would like to pound the trapped troops into dust. It avoids a huge civilian loss on their territory to retake Kherson City without street-to-street combat.
posted by a robot made out of meat at 9:29 AM on October 8, 2022 [2 favorites]

If you were to sabotage the railway bridge the best way to do so would be to demolish one of the pillars

Depends on what your goals are and I'm confident it was talked about but they chose this path instead. It makes more sense if you want civilians and light foot and vehicle traffic to be able to use the bridge. It's not a good idea to leave civilians trapped in a combat zone and it's a good idea to leave your enemy an escape path instead of forcing them to make a stand. This way the Ukrainians can more easily repair the bridge and use it themselves.

It's not the first time they've damaged a bridge enough to make it militarily useless but still functional enough for civilians to evacuate and soldiers to retreat.
posted by VTX at 10:30 AM on October 8, 2022 [6 favorites]

Updates continue at Explosion Rocks Russia’s Prized Kerch Strait Bridge Leading To Crimea — The vital link between Russia and Crimea, Moscow’s prized Kerch Strait Bridge, has been severed by a massive explosion; Howard Altman, Stetson Payne, Tyler Rogoway; The War Zone, Oct 8, 2022.
posted by cenoxo at 11:09 AM on October 8, 2022

Taking out the railway bridge would be the primary objective from a military viewpoint, but I doubt you can do that without collateral damage to the road bridge. What I wrote above (demolish a pillar) was the theoretically best way, a note which I should have added. It's hardly possible without major prep work on the pillar, even if you know it's made from rotten concrete with not even half the rebar that should have gone in.

This attack was likely the one which came out as the most feasible. Whether or not it would take out the road bridge as well will probably have been considered and dismissed; as long as the pillars are intact the Russians can put a Bailey bridge over the gaps allowing some traffic.

And thinking about the timing and location of the explosion I'm starting to wonder if that explosion was triggered remotely the moment the truck was level with the tank waggons.
posted by Stoneshop at 11:47 AM on October 8, 2022 [1 favorite]

The “Crimean Bridge - Done” stamps look nice ...

Russia claims that rail traffic is crossing the bridge again, aye aye jimmy hill chinny reckon
posted by scruss at 12:35 PM on October 8, 2022 [2 favorites]

Or do the opposite of that and immediately reopen to traffic with minimal structural inspection.
posted by a robot made out of meat at 12:49 PM on October 8, 2022

scruss: aye aye jimmy hill chinny reckon

Sorry, what does this mean? Something like 'Yeah, right'?
posted by Too-Ticky at 12:54 PM on October 8, 2022

If they did it once, they might do it again. And might destroy the rails the next time. These Ukrainians are nothing if not plucky and resourceful.
posted by hippybear at 1:05 PM on October 8, 2022 [1 favorite]

@Too-Ticky: I tried looking this up.

As per urbandictionary:

chinny reckon

To express indignant disbelief at another's fanciful proclamation.

Typically accompanied by the stroking of a non-existent goatie beard.

And Jimmy Hill' was a famous footballer with a very pronounced chin, see photo here
posted by Insert Clever Name Here at 3:11 PM on October 8, 2022 [6 favorites]

Thank you, Insert Clever Name Here!

I hope we can keep this thread understandable for those of us who do not have English as our first language. Because of its subject matter, it has a relatively larger number of us following it. It's appreciated if all y'all can keep that in mind.
posted by Too-Ticky at 3:17 PM on October 8, 2022 [4 favorites]

To be fair, many of us who DO have English as our first language had no f'n idea what that meant, either.
posted by hippybear at 3:21 PM on October 8, 2022 [48 favorites]

Russia’s Kerch Strait Bridge Reopens To Very Limited Road, Rail Traffic — Here are all the new details surrounding the explosion on Russia’s Kerch Strait Bridge now that night has fallen across the tense Sea of Azov.: Howard Altman, Stetson Payne, Tyler Rogoway; The War Zone, Oct 8, 2022.

Daylight came after a massive explosion that Russia says was caused by a truck bomb and killed three people, revealing damage to the Kerch Strait Bridge in greater detail, with on-scene images and satellite photos showing the collapsed roadway span. Close-up assessments on the remaining roadway show it has partially buckled, but still standing and very limited traffic has resumed on both the rail and roadway spans of the bridge….

Details in the article.
posted by cenoxo at 3:42 PM on October 8, 2022

Crimean ferry operators.

(It's a joke meme.)
posted by Artifice_Eternity at 3:45 PM on October 8, 2022 [3 favorites]

Destroying the rail is not a strategic primary objective if it were, it be gone already. It's a target of opportunity. You don't destroy a bridge by pillars, you airstrike it at both ends at once.

Doesn't anyone see the irony in blowing the bridge, an "off ramp" Ukraine shaped militarily.
fucking brilliant.
posted by clavdivs at 4:14 PM on October 8, 2022

Destroying the rail is not a strategic primary objective if it were, it be gone already. It's a target of opportunity
I’d recommend William Spaniel’s “What the Crimean Bridge Attack means for the Russian Ukraine War” - he had previously made a video on “Ten reasons Ukraine hasn’t blown up the Kerch Bridge (yet)”. In short, there is quite a lot to be said, from the Ukrainian perspective for badly damaging but not destroying the bridge: you can use it for civilians to flee the conflict and you can credibly threaten to return and finish the job, for example.
posted by rongorongo at 4:39 PM on October 8, 2022 [8 favorites]

Thanks and your video is right in that it is not a primary strategic target.

I'd suggest ICRC, customary international humanitarian law, Ukraine section.
posted by clavdivs at 5:25 PM on October 8, 2022

Link to Russian press article from 3 months ago which claimed the Kerch bridge was invulnerable to attack because of its 20 modes of protection - including combat dolphins.

Maybe the combat dolphins have decided they're on our side.
posted by Flunkie at 5:55 PM on October 8, 2022 [6 favorites]

Maybe the combat dolphins have decided they're on our side.

My god, they’re evolving
posted by glaucon at 6:00 PM on October 8, 2022 [4 favorites]

"Western and Russian reports of fractures within the Kremlin ...via WP
"ISW cannot verify any of these reports are real or assess the likelihood that these arguments or fractures will change Putin’s mind about continuing the war, let alone if they will destabilize his regime."

"Kadyrov and Prigozhin will likely attempt to make minor ground advances in Donetsk Oblast to maintain their prominence and reputation in the nationalist and proxy information spaces." (ibid)

If these guys try to, what one thinks, that would be...I don't know. I don't buy it wholesale. A MoD fracture yes but Putin is running out of scapegoats. (Chaiko) No Trioka is going to win military and Kadyrov won't sit well with the inner circles.

"about this break in the façade of his power and of the unanimity of his trusted senior officials in an odd exchange with a teacher on October 5..." (ibid)

The fracture in the Kremlin. The mob boss.

I'm reminded of 'Milwaukee Phil', an associate of Giancana. liked to travel. arriving back to a nervous Giancana, Phil's monologue on Temple of Concord was cut short.
"Phil, goddammit! Ruins! I got coppers coming out of my eyeballs and you sit there telling me about ruins! Listen to me, Phil, listen real good! Ruins ain't garbage! Forget about them goddamn ruins!"
posted by clavdivs at 7:23 PM on October 8, 2022

Alternate Kerch Bridge takes:

Flippin Coin on Twitter

Kerch Bridge. In frame 2, the top in the circle is a boat's bow, the bottom likely reflection. The boat stops on dime. Frame 3: its comes forward, now in view. Explosion. Truck less likely culprit.
#CrimeanBridge #Crimea #KerchBridge #Kerch

CJ on Twitter

Kerch Bridge Missile Pictures:

All the evidence you need that the Kerch Bridge was hit by a missile and not a truck bomb as Russian media claims.

Pay attention to where you see the light from the explosion, it’s not coming from the truck.

First, .1 seconds before

1/

outlander on Twitter

la raison, un simple accident

posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 9:35 PM on October 8, 2022

I still think it was a boat/sea-drone - in the video from the distance you can see 2 trucks on the right, the closer one survives, the far one is already on the rising part of the bridge, and the damage was to the flat part.

Also the whole suicide-bomber thing hasn't been a thing in Ukraine
posted by mbo at 11:15 PM on October 8, 2022 [3 favorites]

Yeah, I don't know what it was, but I do find all the "LOOK! It's a VEHICLE!" things that have been popping up in the past day kind of weird.
posted by Flunkie at 11:22 PM on October 8, 2022

clavdivs: You don't destroy a bridge by pillars, you airstrike it at both ends at once.

Which require you to have airstrike capability to those locations. Given the distance over hostile territory and the proclaimed defenses (some of which will probably be working) the answer whether the UA Air Force could perform such strikes would be a no.

Also, damage at the ends is easier to fix than a span or two dropping, especially with a structure like the Kerch Bridge.
posted by Stoneshop at 12:46 AM on October 9, 2022

I still think it was a boat/sea-drone

There's no telltale explosion damage to the underside of the dropped roadway spans at all, no buckling upwards of the road deck, and there are clear signs of one on or just above the northbound road deck (scorching, direction of blast damage to crash barriers).

A detonation underneath the northbound road deck would also have caused the southbound deck to show similar although possibly less damage: northbound buckles upwards, then collapses, southbound would at least bulge up to some extent.
posted by Stoneshop at 12:57 AM on October 9, 2022 [6 favorites]

A slight tangent on the meme front:

@Ayei_Eloheichem: You're telling me @MarkHamill just became a @U24_gov_ua drone ambassador and then suddenly this happens?

Here's the footage of what actually happened to the Kerch bridge.
posted by cendawanita at 3:20 AM on October 9, 2022 [1 favorite]

Teegeeack AV Club Secretary: Just find it interesting that some credible people, including some Ukrainians, are entertaining the idea.

Seeding suspicion and fomenting intrigue. The Russian leadership eating itself from the inside? Ukraine will be fanning those fires any way they can. And as we saw with the "Wargaming says only a single offensive will be successful, and it will be against Kherson", 'leaked' by an US military official, official Ukraine and other sources giving out plausible but not necessarily true statements can be expected.

Ukraine SFO hinting that they just got a trailer full of explosives past the northbound checkpoint, even if it wasn't them and it wasn't even that truck that was the source of the explosion, should have every vehicle turned inside out for the next couple of weeks. Congestion and delays.
posted by Stoneshop at 4:05 AM on October 9, 2022 [11 favorites]

The Russian leadership eating itself from the inside?

The Nord Stream pipeline explosions make a little more sense in that context, too. (Not that any of this makes a whole lot of sense).
posted by 1970s Antihero at 4:49 AM on October 9, 2022 [1 favorite]

I think it's interesting that there's all kinds of credible people out there finding reasons for why it couldn't be this or that, but have no strong opinion on what it could be. Like credible people often conduct themselves. But there are enough of them that all possible causes have some reasonable evidence debunking them.
posted by Harald74 at 4:54 AM on October 9, 2022

Anyways, I found this interesting Twitter thread outlining the challenges of doing medical support in urban operations. We might see a move to more urban fighting during the winter.
posted by Harald74 at 4:55 AM on October 9, 2022 [1 favorite]

The Nord Stream pipeline explosions make a little more sense in that context, too. (Not that any of this makes a whole lot of sense).

Upthread lots of people including myself have tried to explain that they were a mob-style threat, on the day before Norway, Denmark and Poland opened a pipeline from Norway to Poland. "Nice new pipeline you have there, pity if something happened to it". Our governments seem to have understood it that way, too. And Friday there was new inexplicable seismic activity in Kattegat, the sea between the Baltic and the North seas. After all of the Baltic nations and Norway have improved their control of the waters.

What seems to confuse people is that the North Stream pipelines primarily served Russian interests. But the thing is that with the unanimous European support for Ukraine, those pipelines are now obsolete. It's not likely they will open again before Ukraine is safe or a long time after that, and in the meantime, the EU has speeded up its existing commitment to phasing out fossil fuels dramatically, so that even if a peace is reached within a year, the North Stream lines still won't be relevant. Here, the only reason gas for domestic heating purposes isn't already phased out completely is a bottleneck situation for the alternatives, with year-long waiting lists. At this time of year, electricity is practically free because of wind.

It's a bit different in other European countries, but the trend is pretty clear.

I think the Russians underrated the support for Ukraine, which is both weird and understandable. It's weird because Ukraine is a huge European country, and it's understandable because we have let them annex large parts of Ukraine already.

I believe the attempt at annexation of Ukraine has a lot to do with the global move away from fossil fuels. Russian economy is almost entirely dependent on extraction and sale of fossil fuels and anyone who can read, even Russian officials, will have noticed that Russia's primary buyer, the EU, has ambitious plans to wean itself off gas, oil and coal. For a kleptocratic regime like the Russian one, this would not inspire to find new sources of income, or even wealth. Or even to build gas pipes to China, where they don't seem as committed to CO2 reduction as the EU (and incidentally, gas would be an improvement to coal, which is a huge issue in China). Land-grabbing looks like a much simpler and better idea, I imagine.
posted by mumimor at 6:30 AM on October 9, 2022 [13 favorites]

In the case of the Nordstreams, maybe Russia after threatening to take action on the Baltic pipelines actually had autonomous drones with charges heading towards these pipelines, and the drones were instead directed over Nordstreams and dispatched.

Nope
posted by mumimor at 7:28 AM on October 9, 2022 [5 favorites]

Upthread lots of people including myself have tried to explain that they were a mob-style threat, on the day before Norway, Denmark and Poland opened a pipeline from Norway to Poland.

So why not just destroy the Norway pipeline?
posted by ryanrs at 8:45 AM on October 9, 2022

it's always infrastructure week in the Ukraine war threads
posted by glonous keming at 8:50 AM on October 9, 2022 [9 favorites]

So why not just destroy the Norway pipeline?

That would be a direct attack on NATO and raise the stakes considerably.
posted by roolya_boolya at 8:58 AM on October 9, 2022 [8 favorites]

I'm sure the mental process went something like, "hey, we have submarine drones and explosives, we could blow up a pipeline!" And then someone sensible said, "no, if we blow up someone else's pipeline, that'd be an act of war." And then the someone said, "what if we blow up our own pipeline? That would prove we could blow up a pipeline!" And then they went ahead and did it before anyone could say, "no, we'd never be able to use those pipelines again." Or, "no, that'll get Europe off gas faster." Or, "no, that would just make us look stupid because it doesn't prove anything other than that we have submarines and explosives, which everyone already knew."

It's just the lizard-brained action of a testosterone-poisoned thug who wants to shout and pound on something but has been told he can't shout and pound on someone else.
posted by seanmpuckett at 9:01 AM on October 9, 2022 [11 favorites]

This video is a really well put together narrative of the Russian failure to capture Kyiv told from Ukraine’s perspective.

The battle for Homstel airport and the miles long Russian convoy are covered in detail.
posted by interogative mood at 9:09 AM on October 9, 2022 [3 favorites]

That would be a direct attack on NATO and raise the stakes considerably.

Well Germany is in NATO, too. The stakes are already quite high.

I don't think a pipeline attack could trigger Article 5, legally.
posted by ryanrs at 9:24 AM on October 9, 2022

Well Germany is in NATO, too. The stakes are already quite high.

I don't think a pipeline attack could trigger Article 5, legally.

Because the North Steam lines are jointly owned by German and Russian companies, the attack leaves open some confusion and doubt. An attack on the Baltic Pipeline would not have that element of doubt, and it would absolutely trigger Article 5.
posted by mumimor at 9:35 AM on October 9, 2022 [2 favorites]

An undersea pipeline is not territory, forces, vessels, or aircraft.
posted by ryanrs at 9:40 AM on October 9, 2022 [1 favorite]

A pipeline is not territory, forces, vessels, or aircraft.

No, but a pipeline securely in Danish, German or Norwegian territory, where most of the Baltic Pipeline runs, is critical infrastructure, in territory.
posted by mumimor at 9:45 AM on October 9, 2022 [3 favorites]

Yeah, I meant if Russia attacked the parts of the pipeline not solidly in NATO territory, like they did for Nord Stream. The north atlantic treaty does not discuss infrastructure in international waters, critical or otherwise.

(But maybe all of the Baltic Pipeline is within the 12 nm limit for territorial seas? In which case, yeah, call Article 5.)
posted by ryanrs at 9:56 AM on October 9, 2022

Russia has been sabotaging their own pipeline (Nordstream) for weeks/months. They were constantly looking for reasons to prevent gas from flowing. Turbine repairs etc. Russia's Nordstream Partner Germany already stated Russia was using gas (or rather the lack of it) as a weapon this last August or so.

So they were actively looking for reasons to stop transporting gas westwards. Blowing it up gets the job done.

It was noted by researchers in Germany that there was a propaganda uptick immediately after the pipeline explosion (via troll farms, AfD, etc.). Russia's goal is to weaken western resolve. They have two or three cards: nuclear threats and high heating and energy costs are two cards they'll keep using.
posted by UN at 10:53 AM on October 9, 2022 [6 favorites]

But maybe all of the Baltic Pipeline is within the 12 nm limit for territorial seas?

Nope

But all of its owners are NATO members with one of them selling gas to the other two, in contrast with the NordStreams, where it's Russian gas* and there's also their operational status with 1 'out of order' and 2 not yet in use.

* of course Russia supposedly has contractual obligations to deliver, but Volodja Capone has been wiping the floor with those already.
posted by Stoneshop at 11:00 AM on October 9, 2022 [1 favorite]

The source of the seismic movements is further north, near Læsø. The authorities are not giving much information, so I don't know wether they were in Danish territory. Probably not.
posted by mumimor at 11:11 AM on October 9, 2022

The internet is very confused about article 5. First of all a member of the alliance has to invoke article 5. Then NATO meets and decides if it was an article 5 violation. Then NATO decides on how to respond to protect the country that was attacked. The response is calibrated to the kind of attack. Also NATO doesn’t need to use article 5 to take some protective measure. In terms of pipelines. I assume that various NATO states have stepped up activity in the Baltic Sea to patrol and protect other pipelines.
posted by interogative mood at 1:59 PM on October 9, 2022 [4 favorites]

The North Atlantic Treaty

It's pretty short, 14 articles, each a couple of sentences long. It's not some huge, impenetrable legal text.
posted by ryanrs at 2:05 PM on October 9, 2022 [8 favorites]

Russian soldiers helped themselves to artifacts in 40 Ukrainian museums – Ukraine’s culture minister

Mariupol’s exiled city council said Russian forces pilfered more than 2,000 items from the city’s museums. Among the most precious items were ancient religious icons, a unique handwritten Torah scroll, a 200-year-old bible and more than 200 medals, the council said.

No word about the washing machine exhibit.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 4:15 PM on October 9, 2022 [3 favorites]

The North Atlantic Treaty

It's pretty short, 14 articles, each a couple of sentences long. It's not some huge, impenetrable legal text.

Relatively short legal documents often generate immense volumes of interpretive arguments around their meanings. See also: The U.S. Constitution.

I'm sure the NATO treaty hasn't been argued over as much as the Constitution, but my point is that its brevity does not mean it is necessarily as straightforward as it may appear.
posted by Artifice_Eternity at 5:27 PM on October 9, 2022 [5 favorites]

Yeah, there's definitely room to maneuver in there. Articles 4 and 12 particularly stand out to me in this respect, and moreover nothing seems to indicate (at least to non-lawyer me) that the specific items that Article 6 "deems to include" as conditions for invoking Article 5 are the only possible conditions for invoking Article 5.

Plus, of course, nothing prevents any nation or group of nations from declaring war. No matter whether the group happens to be, include, or overlap with NATO or not.
posted by Flunkie at 5:53 PM on October 9, 2022

I'm personally rooting for this war not to spread to include other countries, and for other countries to stop their squabbling because that could also spread the general conflict.
posted by hippybear at 6:38 PM on October 9, 2022 [9 favorites]

I'm personally rooting for Ukraine to continue kicking the shit out of Russia, take back their territory, and hope a Hero will arise in Russia, who can clean up their shit, and destroy Putin's oligarchy.

Seems like a long shot I know, but all the Russians I have met were not bad people. Putin is. Where is a balcony when you need one?
posted by Windopaene at 8:47 PM on October 9, 2022 [15 favorites]

I've mentioned this before, but in 2007 the EU ratified a mutual defence pact which is independent of NATO:

"The EU's Mutual Defence Clause — Article 42.7 in the Treaty of Lisbon — was approved in 2007 and has been in force since 2009.

It states that "if an EU country is the victim of armed aggression on its territory, the other EU countries have an obligation to aid and assist it by all means in their power."

Explainer
posted by Rumple at 9:50 PM on October 9, 2022 [5 favorites]

it's very difficult not to give into hate.

I feel you. It's so hard to remember that few of those Russian troops want to be in Ukraine risking their own lives to kill blameless strangers, that Putin and others are the responsible parties for this nightmarish shit show.

You understand that. But my granddaughter doesn't, which is why we had a talk about this last week on the way to the grocery store when she told me that we hated Russians. Nope, I said. We hate Putin. The Russian people are like the Swedish people, a bunch of different folks just trying to get through the day. They didn't decide to invade Ukraine.

Below, from The New Yorker, an excerpt from The War in Ukraine Launches a New Battle for the Russian Soul.

In the seven and a half months since Russia launched its full-scale invasion, hundreds of thousands of Russians have left their country. Many of them are journalists, writers, poets, or artists, and they, along with some who are still in Russia, have been producing essays, poems, Facebook posts, and podcasts trying to grapple with the condition of being citizens of a country waging a genocidal colonial war. Some of their Ukrainian counterparts have scoffed at their soul-searching. Ukrainians, indeed, have bigger and more immediate problems. But they also have certainty—they know who they are in the world, while for Russians nothing is as it once seemed to be.

One of the earliest examples of this outpouring was a poem, by the children’s-book author Alexey Oleynikov, about the incongruity of trying to flee Russia with a pet hedgehog in tow. One stanza reads, “We will not wash the shame off until our old age, until we die / There have been worse times, but there has never been a more ridiculous time.”

How Russians are struggling is not the focus nor should it be the focus of this thread. This is just a reminder that nations contain multitudes. For example, according to openDemocracy:

Within 48 hours of Vladimir Putin’s 24 February invasion of Ukraine, Russian feminists had mobilised to form the Feminist Anti-War Resistance (FAR). [Note: This is NOT the Feminist Resistance Against War, which advocates for the disarmament of Ukraine.]

“Feminism as a political force cannot be on the side of war, particularly a war of occupation,” the initiative’s manifesto read. The document called on Russian feminist groups and activists to “unite their forces” against the Kremlin’s war in “opposition to war, patriarchy, authoritarianism and militarism”.

Apologies for the derail, I'll get back on track now.
posted by Bella Donna at 3:07 AM on October 10, 2022 [22 favorites]

The Danish island of Bornholm lost electrical power this morning (machine translation), but it's too early to speculate what caused, according to the authorities.

It's not unprecedented, as the undersea power cables have been damaged several times in the past, but the timing and location has raised some eyebrows.
posted by Harald74 at 3:29 AM on October 10, 2022 [1 favorite]

Also, railway signalling cables in northern Germany have been deliberately cut.
posted by acb at 3:35 AM on October 10, 2022 [2 favorites]

So the play seems to be expanding terrorism to the continent, right?
posted by cendawanita at 4:07 AM on October 10, 2022 [1 favorite]

This brilliant new strategy of Putin's may wind up with Ukraine receiving TLAMs instead of ATACMS.
posted by snuffleupagus at 4:21 AM on October 10, 2022 [3 favorites]

According to Ukrainian reports, they already managed to shoot down about half of what Russia launched. And the attacks were planned a week ago.

Ukrainians are rather proud their bridge is still standing.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 4:40 AM on October 10, 2022 [3 favorites]

In re hating Russians: I don't know whether it matters that people well away from the conflict hate Russians, but I think it's hazardous.

Ukrainians who are suffering from war crimes from Russians are treating Russian prisoners well, which is both practical and ethical.
posted by Nancy Lebovitz at 5:22 AM on October 10, 2022 [11 favorites]

It's so hard to remember that few of those Russian troops want to be in Ukraine risking their own lives to kill blameless strangers, that Putin and others are the responsible parties for this nightmarish shit show.

I think this is going too far in the other direction. Some or many of the Russian troops may have preferred not to be there, but they are. And they are committing widespread atrocities. They have their share of blame just as the Wehrmacht did in WW2 and the Confederate Army did in the Civil War.

You can't entirely separate the rank and file soldier from the cause in which he or is fighting. We can certainly have empathy for them. But they are not the victims here and they are responsible for their share of the nightmare. They all have a choice and every day they are on Ukrainian soil under Russian colors they increase their share of culpability.
posted by Justinian at 5:42 AM on October 10, 2022 [27 favorites]

ChrisO has a thread on what Occams Razor can tell us about the Kerch Bridge explosion cause. Meanwhile TheDisgruntledCarKnocker is more interested in why that train wasn’t moving.
posted by rongorongo at 6:43 AM on October 10, 2022 [2 favorites]

Putin seems to be speedrunning WWII. Now that we've hit the futile/tragic vengeance weapons phase, maybe we have Operation Valkyrie to look forward to?
posted by Sauce Trough at 8:35 AM on October 10, 2022

rongorongo: TheDisgruntledCarKnocker is more interested in why that train wasn’t moving.

A blocking signal, most likely. Easy to influence too.

Someone in that thread suggested stopped for inspection. <facepalm>Seriously?</facepalm>. Just somewhere on a bridge with no suitable access?
posted by Stoneshop at 8:46 AM on October 10, 2022

Here’s a link to news about the sabotage in Germany cited by acb.
posted by Bella Donna at 9:38 AM on October 10, 2022 [1 favorite]

Blocking signal most likely but tThere are a bunch of automated detectors that may call out a condition that could lead to derailment (EG: Hotbox, dragging equipment, lose of braking or sliding wheel). No guessing what Russian rail SOP requires but if one of these detectors was triggered it may specify an immediate halt until someone can take a look. After all with parallel tracks it is just a matter of sending someone down the adjacent track in a maintenance vehicle.
posted by Mitheral at 10:04 AM on October 10, 2022

RE: the German sabotage. We should keep in mind that the Russian occupation of Ukraine doesn't drive every event in the world. Not only does making Russia the universal bogey man empower Russia and give power to others who want to use that bogeyman as justification for their own policies it distorts the actions of everyone else.
posted by Mitheral at 10:18 AM on October 10, 2022 [2 favorites]

OTOH, Putinist sympathies run deep in Germany; mostly on the right, including the AfD party (who have been having big rallies against sacrificing cheap gas for Ukraine), though also among östalgist pockets on the left. Pro-Russian sabotage of infrastructure in Germany might not have been the works of spetsnaz assets as much as of useful idiots in extremist groups, done cheaply and at arm's length.
posted by acb at 10:30 AM on October 10, 2022 [4 favorites]

Actual reason for today's attacks, probably: so many power plants were hit that Ukraine had to suspend energy exports. Since connecting to Poland and Moldova's networks soon after the start of the war, Ukraine had been exporting lots of clean atomic energy to replace missing Russian coal and gas. This definitely alters the winter equation.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 11:13 AM on October 10, 2022 [7 favorites]

In re hating Russians: I don't know whether it matters that people well away from the conflict hate Russians, but I think it's hazardous.

It is of course silly to hate individual Russians. But let us also not forget that this war is not unpopular in Russia. In fact, quite the opposite. It's easy to chalk it all up to propaganda, but no. Nationalistic chauvinism runs deep in Russia. Ask me how I know, here in Estonia.

Just as an example which was touched upon above in this thread: most countries closed their borders to Russians trying to escape the conscription. And one reason for that is that among those people there is going to be a number of people who are completely fine with the slaughter and genocide, but are only trying to get away once their own skin is on the line.
posted by Pyrogenesis at 11:32 AM on October 10, 2022 [20 favorites]

On Twitter, defense analyst Konrad Muzyka went over what recent reports about a possible mobilization of Belarusian armed forces indicate, given what is known about the Belarusian army.
posted by Kattullus at 1:40 PM on October 10, 2022

I think that Russia is engaging in a strategy to try to create pressure for direct NATO involvement as this will force the more reasonable, cooler heads who want to avoid ww3 to seek some kind of solution that freezes the conflict. This is the same reason they blew up the pipeline.
posted by interogative mood at 1:47 PM on October 10, 2022 [5 favorites]

I'm pretty sure that Russia's strategy from the beginning has been to just keep daring NATO over and over to get involved. There seems to be a certain mythos of "this is Russia's final war for survival against the horrible West" in the entire narrative, and the fact that the "horrible West" hasn't gotten involved in the way Putin would like as of yet (hopefully never) can only be a source of frustration for him.
posted by hippybear at 1:54 PM on October 10, 2022 [5 favorites]

The discussion of was it Russia or not brings me back a few years ago:

[2014] In response to the question of the presence of Russian troops in Crimea, Russian Minister of Defence Sergey Shoygu said, "Regarding the statements about use of Russian special forces in Ukrainian events, I can only say one thing – it's hard to search for a black cat in a dark room, especially if it's not there," and added cryptically that searching for the cat would be "stupid" if the cat is "intelligent, brave, and polite".

Nobody can know for sure until there's an investigation/proof, but if we're not checking for Little Green Men in our pipelines and infrastructure, we're not doing it right.

A black cat in a dark room:

Germany's Interior Minister Nancy Faeser is looking to fire the chief of the federal agency responsible for cybersecurity, Arne Schönbohm, over his alleged contacts with agents of Russia's security services, Germany's newspapers reported on Sunday, citing anonymous government sources.
posted by UN at 2:40 PM on October 10, 2022 [4 favorites]

Also, Alon Levy has a Twitter thread on Putinist sympathies in the Bundeswehr being a holdover from the cold war, namely the right-wing bias emerging from an anticommunist mission finding a new home in the “Christian” identity geopolitics espoused by Putin and the like.
posted by acb at 3:13 PM on October 10, 2022 [1 favorite]

for fuck's sake
posted by ryanrs at 3:32 PM on October 10, 2022 [1 favorite]

I think that Russia is engaging in a strategy to try to create pressure for direct NATO involvement

That's what it looks like to me too. Petulant terror strikes don't help militarily, they can only be bait for the West to get fed up and jump in. But why? Excuse for escalation? Excuse for withdrawing (we lost to NATO, not to Ukraine)? Make the Russian population think the West is coming for them and won't stop at the border? I'm just not sure how a real multinational World War helps Russia at all. Combined NATO armies would clearly stomp the fuck out of the Russian army.
posted by ctmf at 4:52 PM on October 10, 2022 [1 favorite]

Right, which is why that theory doesn't make sense to me? Russia's conventional forces would get curbstomped by NATO. It would be ridiculous. So trying to get NATO involved is crazypants.

They can't even beat Ukraine and they're going to fight forces that are, like, 100 times stronger?
posted by Justinian at 5:07 PM on October 10, 2022 [5 favorites]

I'm just not sure how a real multinational World War helps Russia at all.

Well, even if we assume that this "Russia did (bad-thing-du-jour) to draw NATO into a war" theory is correct, I strongly suspect that Russia's not sure, either.
posted by Flunkie at 5:16 PM on October 10, 2022 [3 favorites]

I'm just not sure how a real multinational World War helps Russia at all. Combined NATO armies would clearly stomp the fuck out of the Russian army.

I'm not sure this war is about Russia at all. Speculation from early on is that Putin has a Dread Disease and he's moving history to try to make a final name for himself, and the longer this war goes on, that's the only lens that continues to make sense to me.
posted by hippybear at 5:18 PM on October 10, 2022 [3 favorites]

A pact between Trump and Putin. You destroy the US, I'll destroy Russia. Handshake, deal.
posted by ctmf at 5:36 PM on October 10, 2022 [4 favorites]

> ctmf: "Petulant terror strikes don't help militarily, they can only be bait for the West to get fed up and jump in."

This can be used for at least one other purpose: fending off internal dissent either within the Russian population at large or specifically within elements of the state & security apparatus. Between the Kharkiv advance and the Crimean Bridge explosion (and also the "partial" mobilization), Russia's setbacks in Ukraine have become too large to easily ignore or propagandize away. These strikes could be seen as a kind of "we gotta do something, anything" response to show that they're not completely impotent and to try to damp down the grumbling that's seemingly growing in many corners of Russia.
posted by mhum at 5:42 PM on October 10, 2022 [7 favorites]

The pipeline attacks, today's missile attacks on infrastructure—which are rumored to have been planned in advance even if the Glass Bridge strike was an extra reprisal for Kerch—and succeeded in getting Ukraine to cut off energy exports, this ineffectual airport hack (which may have been a test balloon) coupled with more bad stuff going on in the markets.....

I think they're hoping economic downturn + winter energy demand gets bad enough for everyone to pressure Ukraine to negotiate some kind of semi-permanent status in which they keep at least some of Crimea -- roughly the lower half including Sevastopol, Simferopol and the bridge.

There's also the looming fertilizer problem for next year, and other feedstocks in the region associated with ongoing supply crises impacting the markets.
posted by snuffleupagus at 5:44 PM on October 10, 2022 [3 favorites]

This can be used for at least one other purpose: fending off internal dissent

Absolutely -- recall that the only people presently allowed to criticize the campaign are those who are demanding ever-greater atrocities. Random missile attacks placate those people.
posted by aramaic at 5:46 PM on October 10, 2022 [3 favorites]

They can't even beat Ukraine and they're going to fight forces that are, like, 100 times stronger?

They consider NATO a peer adversary, unlike Ukraine. Even now their propaganda shows claim that the UAF is bolstered by NATO forces because that's less embarrassing.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 5:50 PM on October 10, 2022

They're pretending to that; and maybe the vatniks and tankies still believe them, but no one else does. They will get their shit completely rocked, but as has been pointed out by the IR/macroecon types that's potentially all the more destabilizing.
posted by snuffleupagus at 5:59 PM on October 10, 2022

If there is ceasefire or defeat for Russia, what is left of the army comes home, and they will be pissed off, and Putin will have lost status domestically. It will be over for him. So there is no way but forwards and trying to carry the people with him.

Today's strikes aren't necessarily with military purpose, but for a domestic audience, to show that Russia will retaliate strongly.
posted by i_am_joe's_spleen at 6:00 PM on October 10, 2022 [3 favorites]

I think they considered NATO a peer adversary, up until the invasion of Ukraine or maybe about 3 weeks afterward. And then a month or two after that they were shown that even basically untrained troops could win with NATO weapons, and obviously their military tactics weren't up to snuff, and I'm sure they've privately (not publicly) downgraded themselves from "NATO Peer" pretty quickly over the past half-year.
posted by hippybear at 6:03 PM on October 10, 2022

The theory is that Russia doesn’t actually expect NATO to get directly involved. They want to force NATO leaders into a reckoning where they have two choices politically — make a deal or start WW3. It is a brinksmanship strategy.

In other news looks like Biden has decided instead of more offensive weapons that the US will he sending more advanced air defenses like Patriot missile batteries.
posted by interogative mood at 6:56 PM on October 10, 2022 [4 favorites]

Well, Reverand John had a point about those Patriots.
posted by clavdivs at 7:34 PM on October 10, 2022 [2 favorites]

Foreign Policy's Jack Detsch on Twitter

NEW: Ukraine has reshuffled weapons requests to the US after Russian strikes impacted Kyiv today.

In a letter to congressional leaders seen by @ForeignPolicy, Ukraine's top parliamentarian asked for NASAMS air defenses & counter-artillery systems – ASAP.

posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 8:10 PM on October 10, 2022 [2 favorites]

I think that Russia is engaging in a strategy to try to create pressure for direct NATO involvement as this will force the more reasonable, cooler heads who want to avoid ww3.

Your sorta wrong but for all the right reasons, here's why. Pressure of war and occupation for years now has hardened Ukraine militarily. The border build up was pressure, the invasion was the pressure point. Putin tried to take The country real quick. The second option is a war of protraction and the key to that is time. The strategy is a war of protraction, a seige.
WTF were they thinking. Old as warfare itself
Sun Tzu wrote: "Again, if the campaign is protracted, the resources of the State will not be equal to the strain.
Now, when your weapons are dulled, your ardor damped, your strength exhausted and your treasure spent, other chieftains will spring up to take advantage of your extremity. Then no man, however wise, will be able to avert the consequences that must ensue."
WTF were they thinking.
In order to draw NATO into a scenerio, for it happen, time is needed. Resolve to support Ukraine has not faltered in any real measurable way.
2015.
"Does NATO need a new updated 21st century Air Land Battle doctrine? How should NATO be re-postured for a security environment where parts of its territories are covered by the competitor’s A2/AD umbrella?"
"For NATO, the highest priority should be improving local defense of the countries on the frontline. I like Wess Mitchell and Jakub Grygiel’s proposal to establish a preclusive defense posture."

Europe built up their forces.
The key and as evidenced for months:
"Four things stand out as contributing to allied success in influencing the military balance in the early 1980s.

The first and probably the most important was political: allied solidarity." (ibid)

Putin is not even in a stalmate, he's losing a protracted war against a force that has better morale, allies, and willingness to fight. In short Putin cannot wait for or openly engage a confrontation with NATO militarily.
posted by clavdivs at 8:27 PM on October 10, 2022 [6 favorites]

YudinGreg on Twitter:

The chaotic and barbaric shelling of Ukrainian cities looks like an act of desperation. Rather than pursuing a military purpose, it is rather meant to solve the rapidly internal problem...

It shows how dependent Putin has recently become on this hawkish part of the military. More importantly, with this decisions Putin also wholly embraces the radicals’ theory of victory

And the theory these people nurture is that the key for victory is awe. Basically, you have to scare the opponent to death, and that will be enough for it to surrender

That’s why what they are celebrating now is not some military achievement (there is none) but rather the suffering of Ukrainians. This theory is wrong in the Ukrainian case, and that is something the hawks are still to learn

posted by TheophileEscargot at 8:35 PM on October 10, 2022 [5 favorites]

continued:

This theory most probably means pushing up the escalation ladder – every new crime will be regarded as insufficiently scary. Putin would probably prefer to control the pace of escalation, for he is more interested in a protracted war and the West losing interest in Ukraine

However, at this point it is Ukraine who controls the escalation dynamic, Putin is only reacting to it. We are probably heading to a point when there will be no escalatory steps left. This could be the endgame

posted by sebastienbailard at 8:56 PM on October 10, 2022 [3 favorites]

Senate Foreign Relations Chair Robert Menendez urged a freeze on all US cooperation with Saudi Arabia, saying the kingdom’s backing of oil production cuts is helping Russia finance its war on Ukraine.

I don't know enough about US politics to really understand what this means in practice, but found it interesting.
posted by Harald74 at 11:04 PM on October 10, 2022 [9 favorites]

VALERIEinNYT on Putin's speech about the recent attacks:

In his speech, Putin made one notable omission: He did not mention the West as the ultimate culprit behind Crimean bridge explosion or other suspected Ukr attacks. That's a departure from typical Kremlin rhetoric that portrays DC/London as puppeteers behind Ukraine’s resistance.

The shift was a possible signal that the Russian leader was interested in controlling the escalation of the war, and that he was not on the verge of provoking a direct conflict with NATO.

posted by meowzilla at 11:23 PM on October 10, 2022

It means Kingdom is raising more money for weapons.
posted by clavdivs at 11:35 PM on October 10, 2022 [1 favorite]

"The [Russian] soldiers didn’t have enough bandages, they removed it from the dead soldiers, then there was blood poisoning."

I remember one girl. She was around 9, oh... Her dad was there, she was crying… They were Ukrainian. Her mum came. Then something was launched into their house because of him. Something loud. Very loud. Then they were dead. I saw it.

Soon something even worse begins."

News from the front lines.
posted by lock robster at 11:43 PM on October 10, 2022

hippybear: And then a month or two after that they were shown that even basically untrained troops could win with NATO weapons, and obviously their military tactics weren't up to snuff,

Correction: an outnumbered army but trained NATO-style and partially using NATO weapons, with added ferociousness because "they're coming to wipe us out".
posted by Stoneshop at 12:59 AM on October 11, 2022 [3 favorites]

Senate Foreign Relations Chair Robert Menendez urged a freeze on all US cooperation with Saudi Arabia, saying the kingdom’s backing of oil production cuts is helping Russia finance its war on Ukraine.

I don't know enough about US politics to really understand what this means in practice, but found it interesting.

It's for sure a threat from the Democratic Party aimed at Saudi and it is not just because of the war in Ukraine. It's also a shot across the bow about interfering in the upcoming mid-term elections by raising gas prices. The Saudi leadership is extremely 'roll coal anti-renewables' and Republican aligned. One of the very weirdest parts of US politics is that ridiculously cheap gas compared to the rest of the world is absolutely vital to both parties.
posted by srboisvert at 2:41 AM on October 11, 2022 [6 favorites]

Incendiaries

Possibly used against the Kerch bridge, certainly used by Russia against civilians. Extreme high temperature, can't be quenched by water.
posted by Nancy Lebovitz at 4:13 AM on October 11, 2022

Published yesterday: EU Ambassadors Annual Conference 2022, opening speech by High Representative Josep Borrell:
I think that we Europeans are facing a situation in which we suffer the consequences of a process that has been lasting for years in which we have decoupled the sources of our prosperity from the sources of our security. This is a sentence to provide the headline, and I am taking that from Oliver Schmitt, who has been developing this thesis – I think - quite well.

Our prosperity has been based on cheap energy coming from Russia. Russian gas – cheap and supposedly affordable, secure, and stable. It has been proved not [to be] the case. And the access to the big China market, for exports and imports, for technological transfers, for investments, for having cheap goods. I think that the Chinese workers with their low salaries have done much better and much more to contain inflation than all the Central Banks together.

So, our prosperity was based on China and Russia – energy and market. Clearly, today, we have to find new ways for energy from inside the European Union, as much as we can, because we should not change one dependency for another. The best energy is the one that you produce at home. That will produce a strong restructuring of our economy – that is for sure.

...You - the United States - take care of our security. You - China and Russia – provided the basis of our prosperity. This is a world that is no longer there.

... The war in Ukraine has persisted. We did not foresee how effectively Ukraine would resist. First, we did not believe that the war was coming. I have to recognise that here, in Brussels, the Americans were telling us “They will attack, they will attack”, and we were quite reluctant to believe it. And I remember very well when [US Secretary of State] Tony Blinken phoned me and told me “well, it is going to happen this weekend”. And certainly, two days later, at five o’clock in the morning, they started bombing Kyiv. We did not believe that this was going to happen, and we did not foresee that Ukraine was ready to resist as fiercely and as successfully as they are doing. Certainly, thanks to our military support. Without it, it would have been impossible, but they put some things from their part.

We had not foreseen either the capacity of Putin to escalate [with regards to] the level of mass mobilisation and open nuclear threats. I suppose that all of you have been reading and re-reading the latest speech of Putin when he declared the annexation. That is a must. Every European citizen must read this speech – and you, in particular. You have to explain to the world what does it mean, what does this approach against the West mean, and which are the real reasons of this war.
posted by Bella Donna at 5:42 AM on October 11, 2022 [26 favorites]

The whole speech is interesting.

Let us have a look now at the mega trends that will shape our world: Ukraine, but not only Ukraine.

I want to insist on this.

Last year, everybody was talking about Afghanistan. Afghanistan was the big issue, remember in August [and] in September [2021]. Where is Afghanistan now? In Afghanistan, certainly, but it is no longer on the front pages of the newspapers. It looks like Afghanistan does not exist. The same problems exist – they are the same ones - but nobody talks about it. So, take care with the issues that appears – a crisis and then a following crisis erases the previous one, it looks like it is being solved but it is not solved. [It] is still there. There are many crises around the world, which are the trends that move this world.

First, a messy multipolarity. There is the US-China competition. This is the most important “structuring force”. The world is being structured around this competition - like it or not. The two big powers – big, big, big, very big – are competing and this competition will restructure the world. And this will coexist with a broader “democracies vs. authoritarians", a big divide. I would not insist a lot on it because on our side, there are a lot of authoritarian regimes. We cannot say “we are the democracies”, and the ones which follow us are also democracies - that is not true. That is not true.

Yes, there is a fight between the democratic systems and the authoritarian systems. But authoritarianism is, unhappily, developing a lot. Not just China, not just Russia. There is an authoritarian trend. Sometimes, they are still wearing the democracy suit, but they are no longer democracies. There are some who are not democracies at all – they do not even take the pity to look like democracies.

So, this competition is a structuring force. The fight between democracies and authoritarians is there. But it is much more than that.

The world is not purely bipolar. We have multiple players and poles, each one looking for their interest and values. Look at Turkey, India, Brazil, South Africa, Mexico, Indonesia. They are middle powers. They are swing states – they vote on one side or the other according to their interests, not only their theoretical values. But these people – I mention them again: Turkey, India, Brazil, South Africa, Mexico, Indonesia – are players and poles. This creates this messy multipolarity. These people – and there are a lot of people inside – are there, and not always following us. Look at Mexico’s President [Andrés Manuel López Obrador]’s speech yesterday. Who is our Mexico delegate? Is he here? You heard what the Mexican President said about us yesterday.

The second characteristic is a competitive world where everything is being weaponised. Everything is a weapon: energy, investments, information, migration flows, data, etc. There is a global fight about access to some strategic domains: cyber, maritime, or outer space.

The third characteristic of this world is the rising nationalism, revisionism plus identity politics. Putin does not want to re-store communism. He knows that nobody wants communism again. Putin is using a resource, which is an everyday resource, very powerful and they never disappear. And this is radical nationalism and imperialism.

And in the middle of that, we have the Global South. These people do not want to be forced to take sides in this geopolitical competition. More [importantly], they feel that the global system does not deliver, and they are not receiving their part. They are not receiving enough recognition. They do not have the role they should have according to their population and their economic weight. And when facing these multiple crises – these multipolar crises - financial, food and energy crises – it is clear that they are not there following us because they blame us, rightly or not.

Let us see what will happen at [COP27 in] Sharm-el-Sheikh. But look at the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) – who is our delegate in the DRC? You were there, you listened to what happened in the last meeting. The DRC said that they are not going to sacrifice their economic development to the climate fight.

We see that the war between states is coming back – like in the films, like in the Second World War (tanks, infantry). But, apart from that, there [are] the hybrid wars, there is the disinformation war that continues. I want to stress the importance of the war on information and disinformation – I will talk about it later.

This is what is coming, this is what we have to face. Let me go back to “how”.

I think that we have to think more politically. I think that we need to be more proactive, more reactive. We have to make a link between all these problems. We still operate in silos - I can tell you. I am supposed to be the one who bridges the [European] Commission and the Council and, inside the Commission, my colleagues from different policy [fields]. But we continue working in silos, and each policy continues having its own logic and its own rhythm – be it climate, be it trade, be [it] whatever.

Commission, College, the communitarisation of policies through the Commission, the nationalisation of policies through the Council. It continues being a difficult task. Certainly, the national policies and the Community policies, we want to bridge them – with Team Europe and the Global Gateway – but we [have] still a lot to do to be one power, someone that acts on behalf of the Union as a whole.

We think too much internally and then we try to export our model, but we do not think enough about how the others will perceive this exportation of models. Yes, we have the “Brussels effect” and we continue setting standards, but I believe that, more and more, the rest of the world is not ready to follow our exportation of model. “This is one model, it is the best one, so you have to follow it”. For cultural, historical and economic reasons, this is no longer accepted.

We have to listen more. We have to be much more on “listening mode” to the other side – the other side is the rest of the world. We need to have more empathy. We tend to overestimate the rational arguments. “We are the land of reason”. We think that we know better what is in other people’s interests. We underestimate the role of emotions and the persisting appeal of identity politics.

Remember this sentence: “it is the identity, stupid”. It is no longer the economy, it is the identity. More and more, some identities are raising and willing to be recognised and accepted and not to be fused inside the “West” approach.

I think that we have to be faster and to take risks. I need you to report fast, in real time on what is happening in your countries. I want to be informed by you, not by the press. Sometimes, I knew more of what was happening somewhere by reading the newspapers than reading your reports. Your reports come sometimes too late. Sometimes, I read something happening somewhere and I ask “what [does our Delegation [say]. For the time being, nothing. “For the time being, nothing” is not affordable. You have to be on 24-hours reaction capacity. Immediately - something happens, you inform. I do not want to continue reading in the newspapers about things that happened somewhere with our Delegation having said nothing.

I do not want to “blame and shame”, but this is something that I have to tell you. I want you to be more reactive, 24 hours a day. We are living in a crisis, you have to be in the crisis mode. Explain what is happening - quickly, immediately. Even if you do not have the full information on the first hours, show that you are there. I should be the best-informed guy in the world. Having all of you around the world, I should be the best informed person in the world – at least as much as any Foreign Affairs Minister. I am “Foreign Affairs Minister of Europe”. Behave as you would behave if you were an Embassy: send a telegram, a cable, a mail - quickly. Quickly, please, react.

Take more initiative. Be ready to be bold. Whatever we do, there are taboo-breaking decisions. We break taboos on the Ukrainian war, using the European Peace Facility to buy arms – something that at the beginning [was] “oh, that is impossible, we have never done it”. “We have never done it” is not a recipe. Maybe we have to start doing things that we have never done in the past. When we hesitate, we regret it....


Here's the video.
posted by snuffleupagus at 6:06 AM on October 11, 2022 [12 favorites]

Thanks, snuffleupagus! I did not know about the video. (Possibly because, in theory, I am working on a deadline for my client and also wondering why Henry Kissinger has not died yet.)
posted by Bella Donna at 6:29 AM on October 11, 2022 [4 favorites]

Wow that speech. Very clear and alarming to see the crisis laid out so plainly.
posted by glaucon at 7:15 AM on October 11, 2022 [1 favorite]

Thanks for sharing the High Rep Borrell speech Bella Donna and snuffleupagus. Extraordinary and frank.
posted by roolya_boolya at 7:57 AM on October 11, 2022 [2 favorites]

Heh, take the initiative and react!
posted by kaibutsu at 8:16 AM on October 11, 2022 [1 favorite]

ChrisO on Twitter

1/ The independent Russian media outlet Verstka ("Layout") has published a noteworthy piece on the devastating effect that mobilisation is having on Russia's schools. Thousands of teachers have been conscripted or have fled, bringing schools to the edge of collapse. 🧵 follows.

posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 9:16 AM on October 11, 2022 [4 favorites]

WSJ: The Crimea Bridge Explosion, Analyzed.
posted by srboisvert at 9:40 AM on October 11, 2022

Russian Prisoner of War Says He Joined Army to Pay Off ‘World of Tanks’ Debt
posted by 1970s Antihero at 9:50 AM on October 11, 2022 [2 favorites]

Vice — Elon Musk Spoke to Putin Before Tweeting Ukraine Peace Plan: Report
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:30 AM on October 11, 2022 [7 favorites]

German activists have won court approval to park a destroyed Russian tank directly in front of the Russian embassy in Berlin
posted by Pirate-Bartender-Zombie-Monkey at 10:41 AM on October 11, 2022 [7 favorites]

I suggested Finland do this as a warning, but mostly in jest. I did not think it would happen in Germany, of all the candidates.

The 'World of Tanks' guy's story is even sadder -- running from collections and loan sharks after credit card advances and "fast money" loans for some combination of subsistence items, world of tanks unlocks and donations to a tiktokker he was stanning so he could be one of her mods and support her in online 'battles.' The NCD folks thought the subtitles were a joke at first.
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:47 AM on October 11, 2022 [1 favorite]

> snuffleupagus: "Vice — Elon Musk Spoke to Putin Before Tweeting Ukraine Peace Plan: Report"

For whatever it's worth, Musk has tweeted a denial:

No, it is not. I have spoken to Putin only once and that was about 18 months ago. The subject matter was space.

Though, I saw some lawyerly types point out that he's only denying that he's "spoken" with Putin and that can be interpreted narrowly as verbal communication, thus perhaps leaving open the possibility of text/chat/email communications. Also, he could just be lying, so who knows.
posted by mhum at 11:28 AM on October 11, 2022 [3 favorites]

The "directly" language may be only Vice's - it would be interesting to see how Bremmer's Eurasia Group memo worded it.
posted by snuffleupagus at 11:31 AM on October 11, 2022

The Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe

Ukrainian comedian, politician, and volunteer Serhiy Prytula said that he and activist Serhii Sternenko had raised nearly $10 million in one day to buy RAM ІІ kamikaze drones for the army.

Those are Ukrainian built catapult launched suicide drones.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 11:35 AM on October 11, 2022 [5 favorites]

Might it be possible to start a new thread, this one is over 800+ posts and a lot has happened in the past few days.
posted by sharp pointy objects at 11:52 AM on October 11, 2022 [14 favorites]

Business Insider: Elon Musk blocks Ukraine from using Starlink in Crimea over concern that Putin could use nuclear weapons: report

Following Russia's February invasion of Ukraine, Musk — and the US government — provided Kyiv with thousands of Starlink systems, enabling Ukrainian forces to communicate in what were previously dead zones. The low energy requirements of the service's satellite receivers have enabled it to be connected to reconnaissance drones, Yahoo News reported, providing valuable, real-time intelligence on Russian movements and the ability to target them.

...

On Twitter, Musk said he could not comment on battlefield conditions, saying "that's classified." But speaking to Eurasia Group political analyst Ian Bremmer in late September, Musk appeared to confirm that the satellite service was being intentionally disabled.

posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 8:00 PM on October 11, 2022 [6 favorites]

Musk is melting down on Twitter, as the Russian news roundtable openly discusses how to exploit the situation.
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:15 PM on October 11, 2022 [3 favorites]

Musk, what a piece of shit (but we already knew that)

So this will never happen, but a mere threat would cause another entertaining meltdown:

The Congress shall have power to...
regulate commerce with foreign nations...
support armies...
make all laws which shall be necessary and proper for carrying into execution the foregoing powers

So congress "just" has to pass a law seizing all property currently being used to support the war in Ukraine.
posted by ctmf at 8:18 PM on October 11, 2022 [3 favorites]

Takings aren't free. What's Starlink's fair market value?
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:50 PM on October 11, 2022 [2 favorites]

Well that is why we shouldn't have people that are rich enough to act as states. And critical infrastructure should be publicly owned.
posted by mumimor at 10:12 PM on October 11, 2022 [23 favorites]

April 2022:

Since then, the company has cast the actions in part as a charitable gesture. “I’m proud that we were able to provide the terminals to folks in Ukraine,” SpaceX president Gwynne Shotwell said at a public event last month, later telling CNBC, “I don’t think the U.S. has given us any money to give terminals to the Ukraine.”

[...]

But according to documents obtained by The Technology 202, the U.S. federal government is in fact paying millions of dollars for a significant portion of the equipment and for the transportation costs to get it to Ukraine.

Well, I hope those US government funded Starlink terminals aren't being blocked. Surely the US government would be involved in that decision?
posted by UN at 10:26 PM on October 11, 2022 [15 favorites]

People report that this thread is getting laggy on mobile, so I made a new one:

---==*> NEW THREAD HERE <*==---
posted by Harald74 at 2:03 AM on October 12, 2022 [15 favorites]