Solarbabies
July 9, 2017 12:51 PM Subscribe
US electric utilities are pressuring [NYT] state legislatures to stymie the roll out of rooftop solar. But advances in battery storage may make it unstoppable. [Vox]
Renewable energy is becoming so cheap the US will meet Paris commitments even if Trump withdraws
posted by sammyo at 1:06 PM on July 9, 2017 [21 favorites]
posted by sammyo at 1:06 PM on July 9, 2017 [21 favorites]
Renewable energy is becoming so cheap the US will meet Paris commitments even if Trump withdraws
I know there's a lot of doom-and-gloom going around these days (probably mostly legit). But I also see things like this and think to myself, y'know, maybe the flagrantly atrocious "leadership" we've seen coming out of D.C. these days just might manage to goad The People into get off our asses and start getting shit done ourselves... It's a small thread of hope, but it's the only one I've got to hang onto right now.
posted by Greg_Ace at 1:15 PM on July 9, 2017 [29 favorites]
I know there's a lot of doom-and-gloom going around these days (probably mostly legit). But I also see things like this and think to myself, y'know, maybe the flagrantly atrocious "leadership" we've seen coming out of D.C. these days just might manage to goad The People into get off our asses and start getting shit done ourselves... It's a small thread of hope, but it's the only one I've got to hang onto right now.
posted by Greg_Ace at 1:15 PM on July 9, 2017 [29 favorites]
Ugh, I hate to say anything that sounds even vaguely aligned with anything Koch-related, but there is some question as to what appropriate net metering rates might be, especially given that solar power produces energy at the times of lowest demand and maintaining the grid is not, in fact, free. I feel like some of the net metering rates were set either (a) with the assumption that uptake would be very low or (b) that they should function as a covert subsidy to solar (and thus, indirectly, to Elon Musk). (a) is clearly changing and while I don't object to (b) per se, it's probably best that this be recognized up-front, otherwise you are more vulnerable to these sorts of lobbying shenanigans.
The idea of engaging in a study to see if renewable energy is hurting coal and gas--Jesus, it's supposed to.
posted by praemunire at 1:20 PM on July 9, 2017 [27 favorites]
The idea of engaging in a study to see if renewable energy is hurting coal and gas--Jesus, it's supposed to.
posted by praemunire at 1:20 PM on July 9, 2017 [27 favorites]
solar power produces energy at the times of lowest demand
This isn't true. In fact, the opposite is true.
posted by mr_roboto at 1:28 PM on July 9, 2017 [33 favorites]
This isn't true. In fact, the opposite is true.
posted by mr_roboto at 1:28 PM on July 9, 2017 [33 favorites]
solar power produces energy at the times of lowest demand
Us here in broiling Southern California would STRONGLY disagree with you on that one, buddy. Our peak demand is in summer, when it's sunny - as it is for the entire Southwest. And as climate change gets worse, we're going to see a lot more areas where peak power consumption is when it's sunny and warm.
posted by rednikki at 1:31 PM on July 9, 2017 [30 favorites]
Us here in broiling Southern California would STRONGLY disagree with you on that one, buddy. Our peak demand is in summer, when it's sunny - as it is for the entire Southwest. And as climate change gets worse, we're going to see a lot more areas where peak power consumption is when it's sunny and warm.
posted by rednikki at 1:31 PM on July 9, 2017 [30 favorites]
Net meter rates are not in some instances a covert subsidy to solar. They are an explicit one. If enough generating capacity can be provided to offset the cost of a new power plant it makes sense for those investing in the infrastructure to produce that energy to benefit from the utility's cost savings.
posted by meinvt at 1:32 PM on July 9, 2017 [3 favorites]
posted by meinvt at 1:32 PM on July 9, 2017 [3 favorites]
Thanks mr_roboto! I knew it was true for the Southwest, didn't realize it was the case for New England as well.
posted by rednikki at 1:33 PM on July 9, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by rednikki at 1:33 PM on July 9, 2017 [2 favorites]
Anecdote: My sister spent around $7-10k (after subsidies) for approximately 2 kilowatts of rooftop solar, grid-tied. The utility fees for that in NC were such they have seriously considered disconnecting it and using it only to run a freezer or something. I recently self-installed 1 kw offgrid for under $2k.
I'm eagerly awaiting any battery price improvements. But, I also sized my system so it produces enough power on a rainy day in midwinter that I should not need to run off the batteries even then. Panel prices have come low enough that's practical for me, and so I only need 12 hours of battery capacity now.
posted by joeyh at 2:00 PM on July 9, 2017 [3 favorites]
I'm eagerly awaiting any battery price improvements. But, I also sized my system so it produces enough power on a rainy day in midwinter that I should not need to run off the batteries even then. Panel prices have come low enough that's practical for me, and so I only need 12 hours of battery capacity now.
posted by joeyh at 2:00 PM on July 9, 2017 [3 favorites]
READY TO GO WHENEVER
posted by tzikeh at 2:09 PM on July 9, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by tzikeh at 2:09 PM on July 9, 2017 [1 favorite]
So, I just left a position that was directly related to the licensing and commissioning of residential rooftop solar, and I have a big blob of spleen to vent at everyone.
A lot of the net metering programs were developed by over eager politicians and designed so ineptly that they were bound to incur the burning hatred of the utilities, even ones that have to import natural gas and should therefore absolutely adore residential solar. (TLDR: if you want to subsidize solar, use tax money, not the utility's money to do it. Otherwise, make sure the utility gets a middleman's cut when a homeowner is selling solar to his neighbors.)
As for the right wing's antisolar campaign, all the people involved have truly earned themselves each a slow, painful and humiliating death, as shown again by the story.
But storage? A lemma easily derived from the 2nd law of thermodynamics holds that the more energy you pack into a given volume, the higher the risk of the energy being released in a manner and time not of your choosing. If you want your house to have batteries, it's wise to mount the batteries on a wheeled chassis so in the event of an emergency they can be wheeled out of the house. As it happens, the same company hawking the PowerWall also makes these battery packs mounted on wheels. But, using those for residential storage is made more complicated for regulatory reasons rather than less.
As for me, I'd rather not have to invest in the battery packs at all, as I suspect the lithium in them will get rather pricey. And I'd rather not store the juice in my house when there's an ice cream shop 4 blocks away. All that's needed is for the ice cream shop's freezers to time their use to local solar production. That doesn't even take networking. They can just monitor power quality and the frequency on the wire. Then, if the utility will take a reliable middleman's fee for arranging the sale of my excess production (which they have earned by building the neighborhood wires and keeping them up over the years), I'm happy.
posted by ocschwar at 2:36 PM on July 9, 2017 [16 favorites]
A lot of the net metering programs were developed by over eager politicians and designed so ineptly that they were bound to incur the burning hatred of the utilities, even ones that have to import natural gas and should therefore absolutely adore residential solar. (TLDR: if you want to subsidize solar, use tax money, not the utility's money to do it. Otherwise, make sure the utility gets a middleman's cut when a homeowner is selling solar to his neighbors.)
As for the right wing's antisolar campaign, all the people involved have truly earned themselves each a slow, painful and humiliating death, as shown again by the story.
But storage? A lemma easily derived from the 2nd law of thermodynamics holds that the more energy you pack into a given volume, the higher the risk of the energy being released in a manner and time not of your choosing. If you want your house to have batteries, it's wise to mount the batteries on a wheeled chassis so in the event of an emergency they can be wheeled out of the house. As it happens, the same company hawking the PowerWall also makes these battery packs mounted on wheels. But, using those for residential storage is made more complicated for regulatory reasons rather than less.
As for me, I'd rather not have to invest in the battery packs at all, as I suspect the lithium in them will get rather pricey. And I'd rather not store the juice in my house when there's an ice cream shop 4 blocks away. All that's needed is for the ice cream shop's freezers to time their use to local solar production. That doesn't even take networking. They can just monitor power quality and the frequency on the wire. Then, if the utility will take a reliable middleman's fee for arranging the sale of my excess production (which they have earned by building the neighborhood wires and keeping them up over the years), I'm happy.
posted by ocschwar at 2:36 PM on July 9, 2017 [16 favorites]
... might manage to goad The People into get off our asses and start getting shit done ourselves
"Something for nothing" may as well be our national motto. Nothing is going to lead to energy progress faster than by making things that we've been shackled to paying for free or vastly cheaper than they have been.
posted by ryanshepard at 2:42 PM on July 9, 2017
"Something for nothing" may as well be our national motto. Nothing is going to lead to energy progress faster than by making things that we've been shackled to paying for free or vastly cheaper than they have been.
posted by ryanshepard at 2:42 PM on July 9, 2017
More power to the people who want to use solar and batteries to go off the grid. Hope it works out for them.
But for everyone else who wants to use the grid -- it costs a LOT of money to build and maintain a grid, and a lot of money to build and and maintain the baseload and peaking power plants that give the grid juice. If you want to be able to draw from the grid on a cloudy day, to say the least of sell onto the grid, you need to pay your fair share of grid costs. Ultimately grid operators are going to have to move to something that's more like a cable bill: a high fixed connection + baseload/peaking availability charge which is agnostic to whether you have solar panels, and market-based prices for both taking power from and selling power to the grid.
posted by MattD at 2:49 PM on July 9, 2017 [3 favorites]
But for everyone else who wants to use the grid -- it costs a LOT of money to build and maintain a grid, and a lot of money to build and and maintain the baseload and peaking power plants that give the grid juice. If you want to be able to draw from the grid on a cloudy day, to say the least of sell onto the grid, you need to pay your fair share of grid costs. Ultimately grid operators are going to have to move to something that's more like a cable bill: a high fixed connection + baseload/peaking availability charge which is agnostic to whether you have solar panels, and market-based prices for both taking power from and selling power to the grid.
posted by MattD at 2:49 PM on July 9, 2017 [3 favorites]
the economics of large scale solar deployment is actually pretty complicated. here is a recent review on the effect at different scales and time horizons. MR noted a couple of papers recently on the economic implications of intermittency. because solar in a given region tends to all produce at the same time and large scale storage is expensive, the marginal value decreases more quickly than you might guess.
posted by a robot made out of meat at 2:58 PM on July 9, 2017 [4 favorites]
posted by a robot made out of meat at 2:58 PM on July 9, 2017 [4 favorites]
But I also see things like this and think to myself, y'know, maybe the flagrantly atrocious "leadership" we've seen coming out of D.C. these days just might manage to goad The People into get off our asses and start getting shit done ourselves...
I am actually somewhat hopeful of this, at the same time as being very pre-emptively angry that this will be inevitably be taken as both proof of the benevolence of the the free market and the unnecessariness of government.
posted by Jon Mitchell at 3:01 PM on July 9, 2017 [4 favorites]
I am actually somewhat hopeful of this, at the same time as being very pre-emptively angry that this will be inevitably be taken as both proof of the benevolence of the the free market and the unnecessariness of government.
posted by Jon Mitchell at 3:01 PM on July 9, 2017 [4 favorites]
Our peak demand is in summer, when it's sunny - as it is for the entire Southwest.
That's fine. It's been a while since I looked at the numbers, and maybe they've changed, but in the non-air-conditioning months (admittedly, for AZ, that's, like, what, 2 months?, but, for most states, that's not the majority), the numbers aren't the same. The power generated at noon on October 21 is just worth a lot less than on June 21. And, unfortunately, power generated at noon on October 21 can't (now, at least?) feasibly be retained for use on the next June 21. But the utility's got to buy it whether it wants or needs it or not.
I'm not anti-net-metering altogether, but I think we should be more upfront that it's an incentive to adopt solar that can function as a subsidy depending on circumstances. It's a little disturbing that (as far as I have read) where net metering has been shut down, uptake has dropped quite a bit. That says to me that solar isn't selling so well to people without the subsidies, which means that homeowners so far aren't seeing it as good value, which is unfortunate. Although it's hard to tell whether that's due to the way the product is being offered (for a long time, SolarCity structured its product so that it, rather than the homeowner, captured the tax credit, which is the other major subsidy), consumer conservatism, or its just not making financial sense for many without the subsidies. I'm not sure what the answer is to that.
(Apropos of the last paragraph, this is not simply a hippies vs. douchebags fight, which is kind of how the original article casts it. That is Musk money on the other side. That makes it more hot dbag-on-dbag action, with unfortunate innocent victims dragged in.)
posted by praemunire at 3:02 PM on July 9, 2017 [2 favorites]
That's fine. It's been a while since I looked at the numbers, and maybe they've changed, but in the non-air-conditioning months (admittedly, for AZ, that's, like, what, 2 months?, but, for most states, that's not the majority), the numbers aren't the same. The power generated at noon on October 21 is just worth a lot less than on June 21. And, unfortunately, power generated at noon on October 21 can't (now, at least?) feasibly be retained for use on the next June 21. But the utility's got to buy it whether it wants or needs it or not.
I'm not anti-net-metering altogether, but I think we should be more upfront that it's an incentive to adopt solar that can function as a subsidy depending on circumstances. It's a little disturbing that (as far as I have read) where net metering has been shut down, uptake has dropped quite a bit. That says to me that solar isn't selling so well to people without the subsidies, which means that homeowners so far aren't seeing it as good value, which is unfortunate. Although it's hard to tell whether that's due to the way the product is being offered (for a long time, SolarCity structured its product so that it, rather than the homeowner, captured the tax credit, which is the other major subsidy), consumer conservatism, or its just not making financial sense for many without the subsidies. I'm not sure what the answer is to that.
(Apropos of the last paragraph, this is not simply a hippies vs. douchebags fight, which is kind of how the original article casts it. That is Musk money on the other side. That makes it more hot dbag-on-dbag action, with unfortunate innocent victims dragged in.)
posted by praemunire at 3:02 PM on July 9, 2017 [2 favorites]
A lemma easily derived from the 2nd law of thermodynamics holds that the more energy you pack into a given volume, the higher the risk of the energy being released in a manner and time not of your choosing.
See: many a tragic tale in Rimworld.
posted by praemunire at 3:03 PM on July 9, 2017 [6 favorites]
See: many a tragic tale in Rimworld.
posted by praemunire at 3:03 PM on July 9, 2017 [6 favorites]
oschwar can you talk a little more about how an average person can go solar with as few regulatory intrusions as possible?
posted by yoga at 3:11 PM on July 9, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by yoga at 3:11 PM on July 9, 2017 [2 favorites]
Seasonally, wind power roughly tends to peak inversely to solar, and there is twice as much utility scale solar than rooftop. The industry is mostly risk-averse (or full of shit, or both) and trying to protect their monopoly. Electricity usage has basically been flat for decades-- the utilities should be bending over backwards convincing people to buy plugin electric vehicles, instead of wasting their efforts on this crap.
posted by gwint at 3:20 PM on July 9, 2017 [11 favorites]
posted by gwint at 3:20 PM on July 9, 2017 [11 favorites]
You can't and you shouldn't, yoga.
City hall intrudes into the process of getting solar because they have a legitimate interest in dictating how much of a fire hazard you're allowed to have in your property, and in knowing you will comply wiht that dictate. In particular, the firefighters want to know that if they hose your roof, they won't be zapped with 400VDC.
The linemen who come fix the wires after a storm have a legitimate interest in knowing which wires are live when they touch them.
And the utility, who owns the wires and pays the linemen, have a legitimate interest in being paid the money it takes to do this plus epsilon.
There are good reasons for the red tape, infuriating though it be.
The problem is 1. utilities that are vertically integrated enough that they own their own fuel sources, and so push against renewables, 2. the right wing propaganda machine, and 3. idiot politicians who gave that propaganda machine so much fodder by making net metering rates not include a middleman's cut for the utility (SRSLY, WTF? Did they never learn any econ 101?)
And the off-the-grid vibe is not helping. The grid is a wondrous achievement that is central to the success of our civilization.
posted by ocschwar at 3:34 PM on July 9, 2017 [51 favorites]
City hall intrudes into the process of getting solar because they have a legitimate interest in dictating how much of a fire hazard you're allowed to have in your property, and in knowing you will comply wiht that dictate. In particular, the firefighters want to know that if they hose your roof, they won't be zapped with 400VDC.
The linemen who come fix the wires after a storm have a legitimate interest in knowing which wires are live when they touch them.
And the utility, who owns the wires and pays the linemen, have a legitimate interest in being paid the money it takes to do this plus epsilon.
There are good reasons for the red tape, infuriating though it be.
The problem is 1. utilities that are vertically integrated enough that they own their own fuel sources, and so push against renewables, 2. the right wing propaganda machine, and 3. idiot politicians who gave that propaganda machine so much fodder by making net metering rates not include a middleman's cut for the utility (SRSLY, WTF? Did they never learn any econ 101?)
And the off-the-grid vibe is not helping. The grid is a wondrous achievement that is central to the success of our civilization.
posted by ocschwar at 3:34 PM on July 9, 2017 [51 favorites]
None of this would even be an issue if grids and utilities were public rather than for profit. It could just be filed under things your taxes and fees pay for that get less expensive as more people generate power locally and feed it back into the system.
posted by Hairy Lobster at 3:34 PM on July 9, 2017 [25 favorites]
posted by Hairy Lobster at 3:34 PM on July 9, 2017 [25 favorites]
Mrs. VTX and I are looking to buy a new house in the near future for a variety of reasons. I work from home most of the time and if public transportation were a little better around here we would totally go down to just one car. Instead I really want to put solar panels on the roof of our next house as well as a battery and then we can get a some manner of plug-in vehicle which would be a much better fit for the occasional kind of use it would get.
On top of that, the cyber attacks that hit Ukrainian power plants a while back have me concerned about our ability to weather the same kind of attack. Even if it couldn't quite power everything with the power out, it would give me a lot of security and a way to help out others.
We're also going to make sure we have a good emergency radio and a set of walkie talkies that we keep with the rest of our disaster prep stuff. If the power went out for days at a time and we couldn't get cell or internet access, we'd have no idea what was going on and no way to find out.
posted by VTX at 3:38 PM on July 9, 2017
On top of that, the cyber attacks that hit Ukrainian power plants a while back have me concerned about our ability to weather the same kind of attack. Even if it couldn't quite power everything with the power out, it would give me a lot of security and a way to help out others.
We're also going to make sure we have a good emergency radio and a set of walkie talkies that we keep with the rest of our disaster prep stuff. If the power went out for days at a time and we couldn't get cell or internet access, we'd have no idea what was going on and no way to find out.
posted by VTX at 3:38 PM on July 9, 2017
None of this would even be an issue if grids and utilities were public rather than for profit.
Be very careful what you wish for.
I'm not an ideologue, and there are plenty of municipal infrastructure authorities that are successful. City hall has to do the last mile to my house for water and roadway, after all. They could, in principle at least, operate the power distribution utility.
But...
If you look at the deferred maintenance problem with municipal infrastructure (potholes, ruptured water mains), you should be wary of putting your power lines under the same predicament. Muni broadband is fine precisely becaise even if outages start from deferred maintenance, you still have the cell companies. Muni power? Yikes. No thanks.
posted by ocschwar at 3:52 PM on July 9, 2017 [3 favorites]
Our city government here in Bloomington, MN is pretty great. I've had interactions with a couple of different departments now and they've all been fantastic.
Last summer, I finished our basement. I work in QA and compliance for a bank so I'm ALL ABOUT doing things by-the-book so I called up city hall to ask if I needed a permit. Since, I was going to be putting up studs with closed-cell spray foam changing out and adding wiring for new lights, adding new outlets and circuits and generally messing with the wiring, I had to get a permit and whole mess of inspections.
For non-commercial inspections (IE: Schmucks like me doing the work themselves) they told me straight out that they're job is to help me pass the inspection. The permit was $130 and I had to have like four inspections. I failed a few times but not as many as I had planned on because each of the inspectors walked me through exactly what I had done wrong and it was important while explaining what I needed to do to comply with code and in some cases collaborating with me to figure out the cheapest and/or easiest way to get it up to code. They were super helpful and I learned a TON about why things are done a certain way. It's mostly about preventing and reacting to fire. Something like half of the electrical code has to do with properly grounding things to prevent both electrocuting people and...fires.
So, at least here in Bloomington, I'll pull a permit even if I don't have to. I WANT the city involved with my construction projects as they do as awesome job of helping me make sure it's safe and done right.
If that doesn't describe your city government then your city government probably has some room for improvement. Most people probably have more power than they think to drive change at that level of government.
posted by VTX at 3:54 PM on July 9, 2017 [32 favorites]
Last summer, I finished our basement. I work in QA and compliance for a bank so I'm ALL ABOUT doing things by-the-book so I called up city hall to ask if I needed a permit. Since, I was going to be putting up studs with closed-cell spray foam changing out and adding wiring for new lights, adding new outlets and circuits and generally messing with the wiring, I had to get a permit and whole mess of inspections.
For non-commercial inspections (IE: Schmucks like me doing the work themselves) they told me straight out that they're job is to help me pass the inspection. The permit was $130 and I had to have like four inspections. I failed a few times but not as many as I had planned on because each of the inspectors walked me through exactly what I had done wrong and it was important while explaining what I needed to do to comply with code and in some cases collaborating with me to figure out the cheapest and/or easiest way to get it up to code. They were super helpful and I learned a TON about why things are done a certain way. It's mostly about preventing and reacting to fire. Something like half of the electrical code has to do with properly grounding things to prevent both electrocuting people and...fires.
So, at least here in Bloomington, I'll pull a permit even if I don't have to. I WANT the city involved with my construction projects as they do as awesome job of helping me make sure it's safe and done right.
If that doesn't describe your city government then your city government probably has some room for improvement. Most people probably have more power than they think to drive change at that level of government.
posted by VTX at 3:54 PM on July 9, 2017 [32 favorites]
Don't forget that batteries have a fairly limited lifespan and cause environmental damage in their creation and recycling. We're able to externalize some of the damage to 2nd and 3rd world countries, but that isn't necessarily a win for the world. Putting batteries into things like cars that have to move around is generally good, but simply slapping batteries into all the dwellings may be substantially worse for the environment rather than making sure we have an efficient grid.
Plus the afore mentioned fire dangers of batteries - some of cheaper options require regular maintenance to be safe. Given how many people don't manage to mow their lawns or clean their gutters (I'm guilty of the latter myself), do you really want them with added things to forget to do that might cause collateral damage to their neighbors?
From the Vox article:
Utilities have got to find other ways to make money, other services to provide, other roles to play in the power system of the future. They have no other choice.
That's hinting at answering the wrong question. The right question is, "How are we as a society going to ensure that everyone that needs it has power?" Being able to have a solar array and multi-thousand dollar battery setup is a situation of privilege, both in the initial costs and having sufficient sun-facing roof to make it worth it. (And yes, while you can finance them, companies still aren't going to offer that to many poor people.)
Having a strong and safe grid is something like the post office is indeed inefficient and transfers money from some people that don't really need it to those that do, but that's perfectly all right. But like the post office, it might be something that we need run for the public good by the public rather than for-profits.
Allowing for-profit companies to squeeze those that can't afford to go solar or to simply go out of business or withdraw from some markets is decidedly not a good outcome.
posted by Candleman at 4:01 PM on July 9, 2017 [9 favorites]
Plus the afore mentioned fire dangers of batteries - some of cheaper options require regular maintenance to be safe. Given how many people don't manage to mow their lawns or clean their gutters (I'm guilty of the latter myself), do you really want them with added things to forget to do that might cause collateral damage to their neighbors?
From the Vox article:
Utilities have got to find other ways to make money, other services to provide, other roles to play in the power system of the future. They have no other choice.
That's hinting at answering the wrong question. The right question is, "How are we as a society going to ensure that everyone that needs it has power?" Being able to have a solar array and multi-thousand dollar battery setup is a situation of privilege, both in the initial costs and having sufficient sun-facing roof to make it worth it. (And yes, while you can finance them, companies still aren't going to offer that to many poor people.)
Having a strong and safe grid is something like the post office is indeed inefficient and transfers money from some people that don't really need it to those that do, but that's perfectly all right. But like the post office, it might be something that we need run for the public good by the public rather than for-profits.
Allowing for-profit companies to squeeze those that can't afford to go solar or to simply go out of business or withdraw from some markets is decidedly not a good outcome.
posted by Candleman at 4:01 PM on July 9, 2017 [9 favorites]
Batteries can work to a utility's advantage, too, if it wants to go on building things. Tesla's just agreed to put in a 129 MW/h battery farm for South Australia (and says it'll be up and running in 100 days, or it's free) - and people seem to like it.
I do appreciate the concerns about teh sploidy, but for a very long time secondary Li cells were considered too dangerous for any consumer application. And they can be nasty - especially if made badly or abused by crappy circuitry. Which is why we have regulations. and you design for failure, and all that. People already have gas and low-impedance, high voltage feeds delivering lots and lots of angry pixies into their homes, and things go whoosh or bang in appreciable numbers. If you can engineer and produce domestic batteries that are lower risk than what we have now, and I think the experience of electric vehicles over the last decade says that we can, or perhaps are there already, then the risk/reward ratio is fine by me.
posted by Devonian at 4:59 PM on July 9, 2017 [11 favorites]
I do appreciate the concerns about teh sploidy, but for a very long time secondary Li cells were considered too dangerous for any consumer application. And they can be nasty - especially if made badly or abused by crappy circuitry. Which is why we have regulations. and you design for failure, and all that. People already have gas and low-impedance, high voltage feeds delivering lots and lots of angry pixies into their homes, and things go whoosh or bang in appreciable numbers. If you can engineer and produce domestic batteries that are lower risk than what we have now, and I think the experience of electric vehicles over the last decade says that we can, or perhaps are there already, then the risk/reward ratio is fine by me.
posted by Devonian at 4:59 PM on July 9, 2017 [11 favorites]
If you want to be able to draw from the grid on a cloudy day, to say the least of sell onto the grid, you need to pay your fair share of grid costs.
Except there is already a 'grid interconnect fee' on the bill if you have 100% grid useage. Add grid-tied solar and now you have an additional $25 fee per month where I am.
So how is an additional $25 "a fair share" when the bill has almost $15 of grid fee already?
It is too bad the Nickel Iron open source battery people can't seem to deliver a design.
posted by rough ashlar at 6:23 PM on July 9, 2017 [4 favorites]
Except there is already a 'grid interconnect fee' on the bill if you have 100% grid useage. Add grid-tied solar and now you have an additional $25 fee per month where I am.
So how is an additional $25 "a fair share" when the bill has almost $15 of grid fee already?
It is too bad the Nickel Iron open source battery people can't seem to deliver a design.
posted by rough ashlar at 6:23 PM on July 9, 2017 [4 favorites]
The right question is, "How are we as a society going to ensure that everyone that needs it has power?"
And I'd say that isn't quite the right question. Why not shift expectation that rather than 24/7 all you can eat electrical power the expectation should be that as power flows shift on the planet, it is not unreasonable to consume electrical power based on what is available.
posted by rough ashlar at 6:28 PM on July 9, 2017 [1 favorite]
And I'd say that isn't quite the right question. Why not shift expectation that rather than 24/7 all you can eat electrical power the expectation should be that as power flows shift on the planet, it is not unreasonable to consume electrical power based on what is available.
posted by rough ashlar at 6:28 PM on July 9, 2017 [1 favorite]
Except there is already a 'grid interconnect fee' on the bill if you have 100% grid useage. Add grid-tied solar and now you have an additional $25 fee per month where I am.
And this is the crux of the problem.
Either you live where I do, in liberal MA where decisions about this stuff are made too often by liberal politicians with no clue about technical matters (result: net metering on a monthly scale, where if your excess production adds up to match your consumption over a month, you pay $0 for the middleman service provided by your utility), or in Tea Party land, where the right wing politicians have no clue about technical matters and make up for it with big helpings of bad faith. So a penalty for owning solar.
Things like this have to be done by technocrats. There's lots of problems with the EU, but they do have the hang of technocracy in some domains.
posted by ocschwar at 6:38 PM on July 9, 2017 [1 favorite]
And this is the crux of the problem.
Either you live where I do, in liberal MA where decisions about this stuff are made too often by liberal politicians with no clue about technical matters (result: net metering on a monthly scale, where if your excess production adds up to match your consumption over a month, you pay $0 for the middleman service provided by your utility), or in Tea Party land, where the right wing politicians have no clue about technical matters and make up for it with big helpings of bad faith. So a penalty for owning solar.
Things like this have to be done by technocrats. There's lots of problems with the EU, but they do have the hang of technocracy in some domains.
posted by ocschwar at 6:38 PM on July 9, 2017 [1 favorite]
can you talk a little more about how an average person can go solar with as few regulatory intrusions as possible?
Guerrilla Solar. Basically get panels, battery charger, battery, inverter and not hook it up to the grid. If you can go 48VDC then you don't need permits et al (Per last time I read the NEC) as that's a low voltage concession made for the telco industry still on the books.
posted by rough ashlar at 6:39 PM on July 9, 2017 [4 favorites]
Guerrilla Solar. Basically get panels, battery charger, battery, inverter and not hook it up to the grid. If you can go 48VDC then you don't need permits et al (Per last time I read the NEC) as that's a low voltage concession made for the telco industry still on the books.
posted by rough ashlar at 6:39 PM on July 9, 2017 [4 favorites]
We've got municipal electricity in Seattle and so far I've got nothing but happiness out of it. City Light seems to be plenty good, inexpensive, and kinda chill. I don't s'pose it would work as well in a place that wasn't fairly pro government and fairly good about rule-of-law issues. But having kept a couple of all electric apartments for less than I paid to light a mostly gas apartment in Chicago in the spring...
posted by wotsac at 8:11 PM on July 9, 2017 [4 favorites]
posted by wotsac at 8:11 PM on July 9, 2017 [4 favorites]
Last time (10 yrs ago) I looked at the economics of grid-tied battery storage arbitrage with lead-acid. Some issues:
~85% battery efficiency * ~90% inverter efficiency = ~75% system efficiency
Limited battery lifespan
mismatched batteries in series = failed cells
$$$ for installation; doesn't reliably resell with house
The battery lifespan was the big factor; charging and discharging every day means you'll likely only get ~5 years out of your battery bank. Basically the batteries are arbitrage fuel that is consumed.
posted by RobotVoodooPower at 8:16 PM on July 9, 2017 [1 favorite]
~85% battery efficiency * ~90% inverter efficiency = ~75% system efficiency
Limited battery lifespan
mismatched batteries in series = failed cells
$$$ for installation; doesn't reliably resell with house
The battery lifespan was the big factor; charging and discharging every day means you'll likely only get ~5 years out of your battery bank. Basically the batteries are arbitrage fuel that is consumed.
posted by RobotVoodooPower at 8:16 PM on July 9, 2017 [1 favorite]
So how is an additional $25 "a fair share" when the bill has almost $15 of grid fee already?
A monthly bill for an average consumer that really reflected utility costs might be approximately 50% fixed grid fee. The marginal cost of extra power in most cases is just the generation cost including transmission losses which is a lot less than the retail cost you pay.
This depends heavily on where you live. If you live in a dense urban area the fixed grid cost could be a lot lower and if you live in a remote rural area at the end of a lightly used feeder you won't even cover the fixed grid cost with your entire bill.
The current system subsidises poorer people who don't use a lot of power and rural customers. Both groups have a lot of political support.
posted by zymil at 8:19 PM on July 9, 2017 [3 favorites]
A monthly bill for an average consumer that really reflected utility costs might be approximately 50% fixed grid fee. The marginal cost of extra power in most cases is just the generation cost including transmission losses which is a lot less than the retail cost you pay.
This depends heavily on where you live. If you live in a dense urban area the fixed grid cost could be a lot lower and if you live in a remote rural area at the end of a lightly used feeder you won't even cover the fixed grid cost with your entire bill.
The current system subsidises poorer people who don't use a lot of power and rural customers. Both groups have a lot of political support.
posted by zymil at 8:19 PM on July 9, 2017 [3 favorites]
Given that public utilities have started charging variable rates for energy depending on supply and demand, storing energy in batteries when it's cheap and selling when it's high later is totally arbitrage, other than the currently-high initial investment in batteries means it would be pretty hard to make back the initial investment, never mind any real money off it, and that's also assuming net-metering payments in a given area haven't been zeroed out.
Thanks to mass-manufacturing, the popularity of USB, and the high efficiency of LEDs; tiny solar panel + battery systems running on 5 volts rails are easy to setup, and though it's not in the same league, it's enough to run some LEDs or charge a smartphone. A tiny system like that will never be able to run anything more serious (ie, nothing household-sized; eg refrigerator, stove, air conditioner, washing machine, or curling iron), but between smartphones and enough light to read by, it provides for plenty, and it's nice to have a token amount of independence from the grid.
posted by fragmede at 11:30 PM on July 9, 2017 [2 favorites]
Thanks to mass-manufacturing, the popularity of USB, and the high efficiency of LEDs; tiny solar panel + battery systems running on 5 volts rails are easy to setup, and though it's not in the same league, it's enough to run some LEDs or charge a smartphone. A tiny system like that will never be able to run anything more serious (ie, nothing household-sized; eg refrigerator, stove, air conditioner, washing machine, or curling iron), but between smartphones and enough light to read by, it provides for plenty, and it's nice to have a token amount of independence from the grid.
posted by fragmede at 11:30 PM on July 9, 2017 [2 favorites]
If you look at the deferred maintenance problem with municipal infrastructure (potholes, ruptured water mains), you should be wary of putting your power lines under the same predicament.
If we're talking theoreticalchange on the scale of socialising grid companies, we're probably on a scale where the municipal mismanagement in your area can also be looked at. There are loads of places where municipalities or governments run things perfectly well.
posted by Dysk at 3:40 AM on July 10, 2017
If we're talking theoreticalchange on the scale of socialising grid companies, we're probably on a scale where the municipal mismanagement in your area can also be looked at. There are loads of places where municipalities or governments run things perfectly well.
posted by Dysk at 3:40 AM on July 10, 2017
I live in a place where there is a mix of public grid and privately owned. The issue we have had is 'gold plating' the grid because the rates they can charge are regulated as a factor of $$ invested plus a low commercial return. Since cash is cheap to borrow now the power grids are investing lots of money to 'upgrade' the grid and pump their returns. There is a gatekeeper who assesses whether investment is worthy, but it isn't hard to show where extra money can usefully be spent in an thing like a power grid.
As a result, power bills have basically doubled over the last decade.
The other thing about where I live is we get plenty of sun and we have an extremely competitive solar industry, which is that way due to government subsidies that basically fostered a huge number of small businesses installing solar panels. The subsidies are declining dramatically, but the astonishing drop in PV panel prices, and the rising price of fuels like coal and gas (we have a capitalist open market for export, not a socialist anti-free enterprise fossil fuel export policy like the USA) mean solar is cheaper than grid when the sun is up, and net metering feed in tariffs even at wholesale rates are profitable.
The issue for us will end up being a social justice one. If the grid keeps raising prices it will drive down usage, forcing it to load more and more into connection charges, incentivising people to go off grid.
Right now, it is economically neutral here to install a Tesla powerwall. If the prices go up a bit more those with good solar exposure and some cash will leave the grid.
But if you live in a high rise apartment, or public housing, or even just rent, you won't have that option and you will be stuck with spiralling grid fees.
Right now I have 3kW of panels on my roof that power a bit over half of my energy use and send a bit off to the grid. They have paid for themselves in the 6 years I have had them (thanks to earlier subsidies), so I effectively get that portion of my power for nothing. By reaching the tipping point here that solar makes money no matter your usage, it will be an increasing social equity issue as more and more buildings drop their usage thanks to solar, leaving the costs of fuelling a grid all on others.
I would like to see it addressed by peer to peer markets for individuals to participate in - so I could sell my sister in an apartment my excess solar power at a rate I choose, plus a fee for the network access, but there are many interests stacked against that outcome. However, it is a time of flux and the old rules are going to be torn up, no matter what the incumbents think, so I am hopeful.
posted by bystander at 4:33 AM on July 10, 2017 [3 favorites]
As a result, power bills have basically doubled over the last decade.
The other thing about where I live is we get plenty of sun and we have an extremely competitive solar industry, which is that way due to government subsidies that basically fostered a huge number of small businesses installing solar panels. The subsidies are declining dramatically, but the astonishing drop in PV panel prices, and the rising price of fuels like coal and gas (we have a capitalist open market for export, not a socialist anti-free enterprise fossil fuel export policy like the USA) mean solar is cheaper than grid when the sun is up, and net metering feed in tariffs even at wholesale rates are profitable.
The issue for us will end up being a social justice one. If the grid keeps raising prices it will drive down usage, forcing it to load more and more into connection charges, incentivising people to go off grid.
Right now, it is economically neutral here to install a Tesla powerwall. If the prices go up a bit more those with good solar exposure and some cash will leave the grid.
But if you live in a high rise apartment, or public housing, or even just rent, you won't have that option and you will be stuck with spiralling grid fees.
Right now I have 3kW of panels on my roof that power a bit over half of my energy use and send a bit off to the grid. They have paid for themselves in the 6 years I have had them (thanks to earlier subsidies), so I effectively get that portion of my power for nothing. By reaching the tipping point here that solar makes money no matter your usage, it will be an increasing social equity issue as more and more buildings drop their usage thanks to solar, leaving the costs of fuelling a grid all on others.
I would like to see it addressed by peer to peer markets for individuals to participate in - so I could sell my sister in an apartment my excess solar power at a rate I choose, plus a fee for the network access, but there are many interests stacked against that outcome. However, it is a time of flux and the old rules are going to be torn up, no matter what the incumbents think, so I am hopeful.
posted by bystander at 4:33 AM on July 10, 2017 [3 favorites]
I would have more sympathy for the utility companies if they weren't such giant, monopolistic dicks. Reap what you sow, you fucks.
posted by Anticipation Of A New Lover's Arrival, The at 5:00 AM on July 10, 2017 [3 favorites]
posted by Anticipation Of A New Lover's Arrival, The at 5:00 AM on July 10, 2017 [3 favorites]
So, at least here in Bloomington, I'll pull a permit even if I don't have to. I WANT the city involved with my construction projects as they do as awesome job of helping me make sure it's safe and done right.
That has been my local inspection experience, also. Yes, doing things right is more expensive than doing a total half-ass job, like many people seem to like to do. But I didn't find it any more expensive than just trying on my own to do things correctly -- it was free technical guidance provided by the city (paid for by me with permit fees and taxes, obviously) focused entirely on helping me pass, rather than being jerks. In a couple of situations, they even suggested cheaper/easier ways of doing things than what I had planned -- on one project, the changes they suggested for my concrete footers saved way more money than the permit fee.
If I ever install a solar system, I hope I will be able to access the same kind of inspection assistance to ensure quality control. I've been waiting, but prices keep dropping and at some point it is going to become too compelling to delay any longer.
posted by Dip Flash at 5:16 AM on July 10, 2017 [1 favorite]
That has been my local inspection experience, also. Yes, doing things right is more expensive than doing a total half-ass job, like many people seem to like to do. But I didn't find it any more expensive than just trying on my own to do things correctly -- it was free technical guidance provided by the city (paid for by me with permit fees and taxes, obviously) focused entirely on helping me pass, rather than being jerks. In a couple of situations, they even suggested cheaper/easier ways of doing things than what I had planned -- on one project, the changes they suggested for my concrete footers saved way more money than the permit fee.
If I ever install a solar system, I hope I will be able to access the same kind of inspection assistance to ensure quality control. I've been waiting, but prices keep dropping and at some point it is going to become too compelling to delay any longer.
posted by Dip Flash at 5:16 AM on July 10, 2017 [1 favorite]
Sorry, that was a bit off the cuff. I work in solar. I want to see this industry keep growing, and I think that it will keep growing. Panels are probably going to keep getting cheaper and better at least for a while, and they're already at the point where they're worth buying to pretty much anyone who has a well-sited house and is able to make the initial investment. Regulations and subsidies might speed or slow that growth, but it's happening and it's gonna continue to happen. Solar already employs something like 7x as many people as coal does, in this country.
I feel like the industry is going through some growing pains though, and the ongoing debate over net metering is one of those. Somebody obviously needs to pay for the grid, but it's hard for me to shed too many tears for the utility companies. I wish there were some entity I trusted to make these decisions and set regulations in a rational, consistent, evidence-based way that benefits the public, but who is that supposed to be? The utilities are fighting to protect their monopolies, local governments lack the expertise and are anyway too fragmented, state governments seem to be hopelessly ideological about this stuff, and the federal government is just a complete fucking trainwreck. I don't see a great path forward.
Either way though, solar is just going to get cheaper and better. We've passed the tipping point. Once we get battery storage sorted out (more for the sake of smoothing out generation than as an emergency backup system for individual houses) we're really going to open up the door to having an electricity grid based mainly on renewables. It looks like we're getting close on that one, as well. Things are going to change for the better in this area, but there's going to be a lot of wailing and gnashing of teeth and it's going to be a messier process than it really has to be. And I put a lot of the blame for that squarely on the utilities and their lobbyists.
posted by Anticipation Of A New Lover's Arrival, The at 5:23 AM on July 10, 2017 [10 favorites]
I feel like the industry is going through some growing pains though, and the ongoing debate over net metering is one of those. Somebody obviously needs to pay for the grid, but it's hard for me to shed too many tears for the utility companies. I wish there were some entity I trusted to make these decisions and set regulations in a rational, consistent, evidence-based way that benefits the public, but who is that supposed to be? The utilities are fighting to protect their monopolies, local governments lack the expertise and are anyway too fragmented, state governments seem to be hopelessly ideological about this stuff, and the federal government is just a complete fucking trainwreck. I don't see a great path forward.
Either way though, solar is just going to get cheaper and better. We've passed the tipping point. Once we get battery storage sorted out (more for the sake of smoothing out generation than as an emergency backup system for individual houses) we're really going to open up the door to having an electricity grid based mainly on renewables. It looks like we're getting close on that one, as well. Things are going to change for the better in this area, but there's going to be a lot of wailing and gnashing of teeth and it's going to be a messier process than it really has to be. And I put a lot of the blame for that squarely on the utilities and their lobbyists.
posted by Anticipation Of A New Lover's Arrival, The at 5:23 AM on July 10, 2017 [10 favorites]
Dip Flash, one thing I will say is that designing and installing grid-tied solar is not a DIY project. The regulations around this stuff (which as said above exist mainly to prevent fires and stop utility workers from getting electrocuted by lines they thought were dead but which weren't actually because someone's array was backfeeding into them) are pretty complex and I wouldn't want to have to try and navigate them without having some domain-specific expertise. I feel like even if I eventually got it right, the mistakes I'd make along the way would likely be pretty expensive to correct.
posted by Anticipation Of A New Lover's Arrival, The at 5:27 AM on July 10, 2017 [4 favorites]
posted by Anticipation Of A New Lover's Arrival, The at 5:27 AM on July 10, 2017 [4 favorites]
We live in western NC and have been off the grid since we built our home in 2004. Solar and wind. At one point after having trouble finding a dependable generator, for those days when the sun doesn't shine and the wind doesn't blow, we considered going online for backup. Our regional co-op, (FBEMC), told us they were " phasing out" net metering and but would be okay with accepting our extra power for free. We got more panels, our batteries stay full, problem solved. We look forward with glee to the day that $300,000 a year directors can't stymie the people in our district who want to add alternative power.
posted by haikuku at 5:57 AM on July 10, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by haikuku at 5:57 AM on July 10, 2017 [1 favorite]
Dip Flash, one thing I will say is that designing and installing grid-tied solar is not a DIY project. The regulations around this stuff (which as said above exist mainly to prevent fires and stop utility workers from getting electrocuted by lines they thought were dead but which weren't actually because someone's array was backfeeding into them) are pretty complex and I wouldn't want to have to try and navigate them without having some domain-specific expertise.
That's interesting to hear; I haven't researched it further than keeping an eye intermittently on costs, but I do know several people who DIY'ed their systems without any issues (including passing whatever their inspection process involved). So it is at least possible, if not necessarily the smartest approach.
posted by Dip Flash at 5:58 AM on July 10, 2017
That's interesting to hear; I haven't researched it further than keeping an eye intermittently on costs, but I do know several people who DIY'ed their systems without any issues (including passing whatever their inspection process involved). So it is at least possible, if not necessarily the smartest approach.
posted by Dip Flash at 5:58 AM on July 10, 2017
→ grid-tied solar is not a DIY project
Grid-tied inverters need grid sync to synthesize their output. They can't backfeed a black powerline. If the battery bank is behind the inverter, it's off too. 48 V off-grid guerilla solar is okay if you like really expensive appliances and house wiring the size of car jump leads.
But there's a whole lot of Galt's Gulch rich-boy mewling about solar and batteries. First off, you have to be comfortably off and own a suitable roof to do it. Then there's the return on investment: if the Powerwall uses 15 kWh to deliver 13.5 kWh (90% efficiency) you're gonna have to find a huge spread between your cost of usage and energy selling price to make a return. And guess what? If you're waiting to hit the highest selling price at peak demand, you've gotta use the (hated) utilities wires to sell it and those wires are gonna be pretty congested with everyone else clamouring for power. So don't act all hurt when the power market won't buy your expensive power.
posted by scruss at 6:38 AM on July 10, 2017 [1 favorite]
Grid-tied inverters need grid sync to synthesize their output. They can't backfeed a black powerline. If the battery bank is behind the inverter, it's off too. 48 V off-grid guerilla solar is okay if you like really expensive appliances and house wiring the size of car jump leads.
But there's a whole lot of Galt's Gulch rich-boy mewling about solar and batteries. First off, you have to be comfortably off and own a suitable roof to do it. Then there's the return on investment: if the Powerwall uses 15 kWh to deliver 13.5 kWh (90% efficiency) you're gonna have to find a huge spread between your cost of usage and energy selling price to make a return. And guess what? If you're waiting to hit the highest selling price at peak demand, you've gotta use the (hated) utilities wires to sell it and those wires are gonna be pretty congested with everyone else clamouring for power. So don't act all hurt when the power market won't buy your expensive power.
posted by scruss at 6:38 AM on July 10, 2017 [1 favorite]
Grid-tied inverters need grid sync to synthesize their output. They can't backfeed a black powerline.
That's because to be approved, they have to be certified as compliant with IEEE 1547. But if you're going all in for DIY and rolling your own, you can all too easily put together an inverter that will happily backfeed a dead powerline.
So please don't. Linemen have families that love them.
posted by ocschwar at 6:41 AM on July 10, 2017 [3 favorites]
Dip, one thing that comes to mind to illustrate my point above is temperature ratings. There's an interplay between the guages of cable used, the sizes and types of the conduits, the amperage of the array, how many cables are in each conduit, etc. that determines what is OK to use and what is not. What you don't want is to have a conduit packed full of cabling sitting on a hot roof, trapped under a panel, getting hotter and hotter and hotter as the sun bakes the roof and pumps more and more amps into the cabling. What's OK and what's not in that kind of situation is not very intuitive. It would be easy to get wrong and not necessarily obvious (until something catastrophic happened, possibly years down the road) unless you were fluent in all the regulations and were diligent about doing the right calculations, speccing the right wires and conduits, and following everything to the letter. Even if an inspector caught your error, it would not necessarily be easy or cheap to fix as you could end up having to replace a lot of material.
I'm not convinced that local building inspectors are always 100% up to speed on this stuff, either; rooftop solar is still pretty new, inspectors have a lot of discretion and autonomy in terms of how they do their jobs, and not all of the ones I've met have seemed like they had the kind of engineering mindset that is necessary to tell whether a solar array was designed and built properly. In my experience they mostly just look for common trouble spots and things that are obviously inappropriate to a trained eye. You'd be surprised how much gets past them.
posted by Anticipation Of A New Lover's Arrival, The at 6:50 AM on July 10, 2017 [4 favorites]
I'm not convinced that local building inspectors are always 100% up to speed on this stuff, either; rooftop solar is still pretty new, inspectors have a lot of discretion and autonomy in terms of how they do their jobs, and not all of the ones I've met have seemed like they had the kind of engineering mindset that is necessary to tell whether a solar array was designed and built properly. In my experience they mostly just look for common trouble spots and things that are obviously inappropriate to a trained eye. You'd be surprised how much gets past them.
posted by Anticipation Of A New Lover's Arrival, The at 6:50 AM on July 10, 2017 [4 favorites]
Galt's Gulch rich-boy mewling about solar and batteries
This just reminded of that wonderful time libertarians tried to set it up in Chile and it failed, because although they believed in small government and free markets, they needed water and only those infernal looters had built a publicly owned network of pipes.
posted by Damienmce at 6:54 AM on July 10, 2017 [2 favorites]
This just reminded of that wonderful time libertarians tried to set it up in Chile and it failed, because although they believed in small government and free markets, they needed water and only those infernal looters had built a publicly owned network of pipes.
posted by Damienmce at 6:54 AM on July 10, 2017 [2 favorites]
Oh, and there are structural issues as well with rooftop solar. Most people's roofs were built to support the roof itself plus two layers of shingles, if they were built during the modern, post-building-code era. (If you live in an old house, all bets are off.) Panels are going to add quite a bit of static weight on top of that, but they also bring in dynamic loadings that roofs were never designed to have to handle. Solar panels don't sit directly on the roof but rather a few inches above it, so in the right circumstances the wind can get under them and try to rip your roof apart. There are code requirements around that too, naturally, and my company (I assume other companies do this too) employs structural engineers to determine whether any given roof is OK to support panels and what if any reinforcement might be needed. Is that something you feel comfortable figuring out as a DIY thing?
Then there are all the roof penetrations, too. I'm sure you would be very conscientious about poking holes in your roof to mount your array, but a homeowner is never going to have as much experience doing this as a crew of professional installers will, and there are lots of opportunities to make expensive mistakes there that won't become obvious for months or years after the system is commissioned. A professional company will at very least be insured against such situations, so that if they fuck up your roof you won't be the one paying to decommission the system, partially or totally disassemble it, repair the affected area, and then put everything back together including probably a partial re-roof at the very least. Is that something where you would be comfortable learning as you go?
And finally there's just the safety issue of doing all that work up on a roof to begin with. It took me months to get really comfortable and proficient moving around on roofs when I started this job, and I've always been pretty cool with heights and clambering about in odd places. Despite one's best intentions it frankly is sometimes impossible to get to certain areas of certain roofs while clipped into a harness (at least in a way where you would actually be protected if you fell) and falling off a roof is a really easy thing to do. Are you comfortable going up there and doing all that, or would you rather leave it to a team of professionals?
I mean, even the equipment that I use to take shade readings on a house costs thousands of dollars, and it's necessary because you frequently don't get an accurate picture of the shade situation on a house just from satellite. You need that because even placing one panel in a bad spot can seriously degrade an array's performance. We have professional designers that use detailed measurements and readings taken in the field (by me or someone like me) to make sure that we're getting the customer the production they need/want with the smallest, most cost-effective array possible (modulo any aesthetic concerns that the homeowner may have) and we back it up with a guarantee that the actual production will be within a certain small percentage of our estimates. Doing that takes quite a bit of work, plus experience in a few different areas of expertise, not to mention access to some fairly pricy hardware and software that's probably not worth paying for if you're a homeowner doing this as a one-off project.
posted by Anticipation Of A New Lover's Arrival, The at 7:15 AM on July 10, 2017 [9 favorites]
Then there are all the roof penetrations, too. I'm sure you would be very conscientious about poking holes in your roof to mount your array, but a homeowner is never going to have as much experience doing this as a crew of professional installers will, and there are lots of opportunities to make expensive mistakes there that won't become obvious for months or years after the system is commissioned. A professional company will at very least be insured against such situations, so that if they fuck up your roof you won't be the one paying to decommission the system, partially or totally disassemble it, repair the affected area, and then put everything back together including probably a partial re-roof at the very least. Is that something where you would be comfortable learning as you go?
And finally there's just the safety issue of doing all that work up on a roof to begin with. It took me months to get really comfortable and proficient moving around on roofs when I started this job, and I've always been pretty cool with heights and clambering about in odd places. Despite one's best intentions it frankly is sometimes impossible to get to certain areas of certain roofs while clipped into a harness (at least in a way where you would actually be protected if you fell) and falling off a roof is a really easy thing to do. Are you comfortable going up there and doing all that, or would you rather leave it to a team of professionals?
I mean, even the equipment that I use to take shade readings on a house costs thousands of dollars, and it's necessary because you frequently don't get an accurate picture of the shade situation on a house just from satellite. You need that because even placing one panel in a bad spot can seriously degrade an array's performance. We have professional designers that use detailed measurements and readings taken in the field (by me or someone like me) to make sure that we're getting the customer the production they need/want with the smallest, most cost-effective array possible (modulo any aesthetic concerns that the homeowner may have) and we back it up with a guarantee that the actual production will be within a certain small percentage of our estimates. Doing that takes quite a bit of work, plus experience in a few different areas of expertise, not to mention access to some fairly pricy hardware and software that's probably not worth paying for if you're a homeowner doing this as a one-off project.
posted by Anticipation Of A New Lover's Arrival, The at 7:15 AM on July 10, 2017 [9 favorites]
None of this would even be an issue if grids and utilities were public rather than for profit. It could just be filed under things your taxes and fees pay for that get less expensive as more people generate power locally and feed it back into the system.
The underlying problem of a mismatch between power generation and demand, with no cheap storage option, would still be there. Government ownership doesn't make engineering issues vanish.
At present we're either subsidizing solar--which means money is coming from someone--or we're not getting solar at the rate we need.
posted by mark k at 7:35 AM on July 10, 2017
The underlying problem of a mismatch between power generation and demand, with no cheap storage option, would still be there. Government ownership doesn't make engineering issues vanish.
At present we're either subsidizing solar--which means money is coming from someone--or we're not getting solar at the rate we need.
posted by mark k at 7:35 AM on July 10, 2017
If you look at the deferred maintenance problem with municipal infrastructure (potholes, ruptured water mains), you should be wary of putting your power lines under the same predicament.
As someone who has lived in both the SF Bay area, where PG&E burned people alive because of their terrible maintenance and then whined and complained that ratepayers should pay all the costs so that PG&E could continue to give stockholders lots of money, and in the DC area, where there have been ongoing water main breaks for the same basic reason... I'm boggled by the idea that private companies are somehow more reliable about maintenance. If it's a choice between maintenance that will maybe save people from inconvenienced (or even dying) in the future, or the CEO keeping his job by giving stockholders profits now, a modern corporation will nearly always choose the second.
posted by tavella at 8:23 AM on July 10, 2017 [7 favorites]
As someone who has lived in both the SF Bay area, where PG&E burned people alive because of their terrible maintenance and then whined and complained that ratepayers should pay all the costs so that PG&E could continue to give stockholders lots of money, and in the DC area, where there have been ongoing water main breaks for the same basic reason... I'm boggled by the idea that private companies are somehow more reliable about maintenance. If it's a choice between maintenance that will maybe save people from inconvenienced (or even dying) in the future, or the CEO keeping his job by giving stockholders profits now, a modern corporation will nearly always choose the second.
posted by tavella at 8:23 AM on July 10, 2017 [7 favorites]
mark k, it's partly an engineering problem and partly a regulatory/economic one. There's room for quite a bit more rooftop solar even with current technology, but utility companies want to keep building centralized plants because they don't make money from rooftop solar. Also, somebody needs to pay to maintain the grid. If the utility was publicly owned, there wouldn't be a question of losing profits by shifting more production to rooftop solar—instead, taxes would go down as more people generated their power directly and there was less for the utility to do. Also, if the grid was maintained with tax money then there would be no question about who's paying for it. We wouldn't have a giant mega-industry putting its thimb on the scales to protect its contractual monopolies and vertically-integrated production chains at the expense of both the public and the planet.
There's room in the system for more rooftop solar, even without battery banks to smooth it out. There is a limit, but we're not there yet (and anyway rooftop solar is only a fraction the size of utility-scale solar). Battery banks will open up even more space in the system, but right now a lot of the barriers really are economic, regulatory, and political rather than technical.
posted by Anticipation Of A New Lover's Arrival, The at 8:23 AM on July 10, 2017 [1 favorite]
There's room in the system for more rooftop solar, even without battery banks to smooth it out. There is a limit, but we're not there yet (and anyway rooftop solar is only a fraction the size of utility-scale solar). Battery banks will open up even more space in the system, but right now a lot of the barriers really are economic, regulatory, and political rather than technical.
posted by Anticipation Of A New Lover's Arrival, The at 8:23 AM on July 10, 2017 [1 favorite]
But the economic equation changes as technical problems are solved and new ideas come up. An interesting piece of research has recently been published on the intriguing possibility of using electric vehicles as power reservoirs for the grid: not only does it make sense, it can also increase the lifetime of the EV batteries by ten percent, which certainly adds more complexity to the economic model for the consumer but also adds potential (sorry).
I had a look around, because while I've heard anecdotes that experience with EV batteries shows that capacity fade isn't as bad as models predict, I haven't seen any proper recent studies. Still haven't, but capacity fade is getting a lot of attention - as, obviously, it's a big part of that economic equation - and there are good reasons to expect it to be substantially reduced in the future.
posted by Devonian at 8:36 AM on July 10, 2017
I had a look around, because while I've heard anecdotes that experience with EV batteries shows that capacity fade isn't as bad as models predict, I haven't seen any proper recent studies. Still haven't, but capacity fade is getting a lot of attention - as, obviously, it's a big part of that economic equation - and there are good reasons to expect it to be substantially reduced in the future.
posted by Devonian at 8:36 AM on July 10, 2017
Yeah, batteries look like they're finally getting good enough to make both electric vehicles and home energy storage practical on a widespread basis. We've been almost there for a while now, and they're continuing to improve. (Witness the incrementally increasing model numbers on the Model S). Things are starting to get real interesting.
But even when the battery problem is pretty much solved, we'll still have the problem of a massive, entrenched, politically-connected industry that will want to protect its profits regardless of what's good for anyone else. And we'll still need to have a way to maintain the distribution infrastructure. No matter how good renewable technology gets, those will still be issues.
posted by Anticipation Of A New Lover's Arrival, The at 9:16 AM on July 10, 2017
But even when the battery problem is pretty much solved, we'll still have the problem of a massive, entrenched, politically-connected industry that will want to protect its profits regardless of what's good for anyone else. And we'll still need to have a way to maintain the distribution infrastructure. No matter how good renewable technology gets, those will still be issues.
posted by Anticipation Of A New Lover's Arrival, The at 9:16 AM on July 10, 2017
AoaNLA, what do you think about non-roof-connected solar? Like in your yard? Are they just too weak, is it too hard to wire them up, or is that one of the things your company does?
Especially in Texas, rooftop is risky; we get hail and crazy storms, and lots of people have to get new roofs for those reasons all the time.
posted by emjaybee at 9:37 AM on July 10, 2017
Especially in Texas, rooftop is risky; we get hail and crazy storms, and lots of people have to get new roofs for those reasons all the time.
posted by emjaybee at 9:37 AM on July 10, 2017
Some utilities are actually helping ratepayers, case in point LADWP will own and build PV solar systems in the Los Angeles area on our customers’ rooftop space and pay you $30 a month to do so ($360/yr).
Another side benefit: In addition, training is an integral part of the Solar Rooftops
Program. The LADWP’s current workforce is rapidly aging so we are striving to train the next generation of highly skilled employees for our workforce. IBEW Local 18 and the LADWP have developed the UPCT Program to help meet this challenge with locally developed labor. The LADWP plans to utilize Utility Pre-Craft Trainees (UPCTs) during the construction of the rooftop PV systems.
Unfortunately, my house doesn't qualify, they are only doing it on asphalt shingled sloped roofs and I have a flat roof.
posted by wcfields at 10:55 AM on July 10, 2017 [1 favorite]
Another side benefit: In addition, training is an integral part of the Solar Rooftops
Program. The LADWP’s current workforce is rapidly aging so we are striving to train the next generation of highly skilled employees for our workforce. IBEW Local 18 and the LADWP have developed the UPCT Program to help meet this challenge with locally developed labor. The LADWP plans to utilize Utility Pre-Craft Trainees (UPCTs) during the construction of the rooftop PV systems.
Unfortunately, my house doesn't qualify, they are only doing it on asphalt shingled sloped roofs and I have a flat roof.
posted by wcfields at 10:55 AM on July 10, 2017 [1 favorite]
As someone who has lived in both the SF Bay area, where PG&E burned people alive because of their terrible maintenance and then whined and complained that ratepayers should pay all the costs so that PG&E could continue to give stockholders lots of money, and in the DC area, where there have been ongoing water main breaks for the same basic reason... I'm boggled by the idea that private companies are somehow more reliable about maintenance.
As an electrical engineer living on the East Coast, I'm pretty tired of PG&E being cited as representatives of utilities. PG&E is so many levels of special.
Meanwhile, we have a system in this country where municipal governments are funded primarily through property taxes, and where municipal officials are under extreme pressure not to raise those taxes. If they have to listen to citizens say things like "my children have left the nest, so your children should just bring toilet paper to school; I don't want my taxes going for it anymore." So they're always under pressure to defer maintenance. They also know that when things really go pear-shaped, they can get state or federal money to rebuild infrastructure from scratch.
So potholes build up. And pipes rust. And library roofs leak. And when it gets to the point of a crisis, we notice, and we shout down the city hall cranks, for the moment. And work gets done. And the cycle starts anew.
It's not a big deal. We all put up with it when we drive on our undermaintained roads. And I'd rather put up with this for my Internet connection than ever have to hear the word "comcast" again. But this is not the way I want the transformers in my town distribution yard treated.
posted by ocschwar at 11:30 AM on July 10, 2017 [2 favorites]
emjaybee, ground mounted solar is a thing that we do, but it only makes sense for people who own a lot more land than folks in my area usually do so we don't do it nearly as much as rooftop. Because the panels are so much lower down, they need to be considerably farther from trees in order not to be shaded. Also, a ground mount array is going to take up a lot of space in your yard and it's not something that many homeowners want to have to look at. Finally, some municipalities have rules about residential ground mounts involving setbacks of hundreds of feet, which make them impossible to do in some cases. And large hail is not really an issue where I live, so people aren't as worried about having easy access to their array.
The situation in Texas is probably different, though.
posted by Anticipation Of A New Lover's Arrival, The at 11:38 AM on July 10, 2017
The situation in Texas is probably different, though.
posted by Anticipation Of A New Lover's Arrival, The at 11:38 AM on July 10, 2017
And yet we have 100+ co-op electric utilities and 100+ public electric utilities in the US. The vast majority of them work great. I'm sure there are terrible ones but my experience with coop, public, and private utilities tells me that there's no more inherent problems with the first two than the last. Southside has one set of annoying problems. High Point has another. AEP has yet another. At least with the former two the annoyances aren't a deliberate side-effect of profit-seeking and are thus easier to change without being stupid rich.
posted by introp at 12:06 PM on July 10, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by introp at 12:06 PM on July 10, 2017 [2 favorites]
...grid-tied solar is not a DIY project
Certainly not. But there are probably parts that can be DIY. I mean, I say that I finished my basement myself but while I did put down all the kick plates, headers, studs, outlets, switches, recessed lights, and a few other things, I did hire out big chunks of work. It was a large enough job that it made sense to hire out the drywall work and spray foam.
We also changed out the old 14 breaker electrical panel for a newer/larger one. It's not terribly complicated work but it involves exposing contact points for where the grid/meter meets your panel and if I slipped a little and touched those it would electrocute me to death. So um, I let the pros do that one. I was on-hand and helped them out a little (mostly by staying out of the way and promptly answering questions but I did get my hands dirty) so I was there when everything was back together and it was time to flip the big switch back on. It drove home just how dangerous this stuff can be when the electrician had his apprentice and I stand back a ways from the panel while he stood on a rubber mat and flipped the main breaker back on with a glass rod.
So, have a really good understanding of everything involved in the job and which parts a pretty handy person can reasonably do themselves and which parts need too much expertise or are too dangerous to be done by armatures.
I'd start with a call to my city inspector's office to ask them for advice. Though sometimes the issue is that the installer has a really dial-in process and it makes it more expensive than it's worth to change it up to accomodate DIY contributions.
posted by VTX at 8:06 PM on July 10, 2017
Certainly not. But there are probably parts that can be DIY. I mean, I say that I finished my basement myself but while I did put down all the kick plates, headers, studs, outlets, switches, recessed lights, and a few other things, I did hire out big chunks of work. It was a large enough job that it made sense to hire out the drywall work and spray foam.
We also changed out the old 14 breaker electrical panel for a newer/larger one. It's not terribly complicated work but it involves exposing contact points for where the grid/meter meets your panel and if I slipped a little and touched those it would electrocute me to death. So um, I let the pros do that one. I was on-hand and helped them out a little (mostly by staying out of the way and promptly answering questions but I did get my hands dirty) so I was there when everything was back together and it was time to flip the big switch back on. It drove home just how dangerous this stuff can be when the electrician had his apprentice and I stand back a ways from the panel while he stood on a rubber mat and flipped the main breaker back on with a glass rod.
So, have a really good understanding of everything involved in the job and which parts a pretty handy person can reasonably do themselves and which parts need too much expertise or are too dangerous to be done by armatures.
I'd start with a call to my city inspector's office to ask them for advice. Though sometimes the issue is that the installer has a really dial-in process and it makes it more expensive than it's worth to change it up to accomodate DIY contributions.
posted by VTX at 8:06 PM on July 10, 2017
That's because to be approved, they have to be certified as compliant with IEEE 1547. But if you're going all in for DIY and rolling your own, you can all too easily put together an inverter that will happily backfeed a dead powerline.
I haven't checked in a couple of years, but I believe this is still a topic of active research. There are situations where when load and generation are closely balanced on a MV distribution feeder segment where no method of passive anti-islanding protection will reliably disconnect your inverter after an upstream trip.
There are also modes where a sufficient number of small inverters running similar control logic can swarm and stay synchronised in the absence of a real slack bus. Combine the two problems and you can have a permanent unintended island.
Short of mandating the IEC 62116 active anti-islanding algorithms seen on large and expensive inverters there isn't an obvious solution. There is currently a push to use less rigorous standards so that its economical to include some kind of solution in smaller inverters.
posted by zymil at 1:21 AM on July 11, 2017 [1 favorite]
I haven't checked in a couple of years, but I believe this is still a topic of active research. There are situations where when load and generation are closely balanced on a MV distribution feeder segment where no method of passive anti-islanding protection will reliably disconnect your inverter after an upstream trip.
There are also modes where a sufficient number of small inverters running similar control logic can swarm and stay synchronised in the absence of a real slack bus. Combine the two problems and you can have a permanent unintended island.
Short of mandating the IEC 62116 active anti-islanding algorithms seen on large and expensive inverters there isn't an obvious solution. There is currently a push to use less rigorous standards so that its economical to include some kind of solution in smaller inverters.
posted by zymil at 1:21 AM on July 11, 2017 [1 favorite]
→ … as the sun bakes the roof and pumps more and more amps into the cabling
Yeah, solar raceway design isn't trivial. A bit more thought than "use the black cable ties" is required. But it's the cold weather performance that will really let the smoke out your inverter. I was up here [nb: annoying music] around commissioning. It was below -35°C and the inverters were screaming as the dawn light hit the cold modules.
→ … dynamic loadings that roofs were never designed to have to handle
Aerodynamic lift being one of the really unexpected ones. Load you'd expect, but modules acting as wings and trying to pull the roof off is … fun. Almost as much fun as additional ice load.
Guess I'm naïve, but the idea of anyone homebrewing an inverter gives me the shudders. I have seen familiar Atmel microcontrollers and programming headers inside commercial inverters, but I've so far resisted the urge to break out the FTDI cable and the Arduino IDE on them. zymil's comment on anti-islanding definitely requires some non-trivial solutions. The large projects I've worked on have some very expensive phasor management circuitry to ensure that the solar farms don't get their own idea of grid sync and melt the switchgear.
posted by scruss at 6:16 AM on July 11, 2017 [1 favorite]
Yeah, solar raceway design isn't trivial. A bit more thought than "use the black cable ties" is required. But it's the cold weather performance that will really let the smoke out your inverter. I was up here [nb: annoying music] around commissioning. It was below -35°C and the inverters were screaming as the dawn light hit the cold modules.
→ … dynamic loadings that roofs were never designed to have to handle
Aerodynamic lift being one of the really unexpected ones. Load you'd expect, but modules acting as wings and trying to pull the roof off is … fun. Almost as much fun as additional ice load.
Guess I'm naïve, but the idea of anyone homebrewing an inverter gives me the shudders. I have seen familiar Atmel microcontrollers and programming headers inside commercial inverters, but I've so far resisted the urge to break out the FTDI cable and the Arduino IDE on them. zymil's comment on anti-islanding definitely requires some non-trivial solutions. The large projects I've worked on have some very expensive phasor management circuitry to ensure that the solar farms don't get their own idea of grid sync and melt the switchgear.
posted by scruss at 6:16 AM on July 11, 2017 [1 favorite]
Even thinking through what I know of what's involved in a solar install, I can't think of much that an average DIY'er could realistically do themselves.
Any wiring or electrical component that will be carrying more than like 20 amps of A/C current or whatever the similarly dangerous level of DC current is are probably jobs for pros. I think I'd need to consult an engineer or other appropriate professional about how the panels need to mounted and then I could probably install the panels themselves along with required improvements to the roof or other structure and leave the wiring for the pros.
But I wonder if even that will turn out to be more trouble than it's worth.
posted by VTX at 4:10 PM on July 11, 2017
Any wiring or electrical component that will be carrying more than like 20 amps of A/C current or whatever the similarly dangerous level of DC current is are probably jobs for pros. I think I'd need to consult an engineer or other appropriate professional about how the panels need to mounted and then I could probably install the panels themselves along with required improvements to the roof or other structure and leave the wiring for the pros.
But I wonder if even that will turn out to be more trouble than it's worth.
posted by VTX at 4:10 PM on July 11, 2017
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posted by Johnny Wallflower at 1:05 PM on July 9, 2017 [2 favorites]