Side note: million of these shots will soon expire, a profound waste
July 8, 2022 8:58 PM Subscribe
Eric Topol explores in detail the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.5 variant and our response to it.
This was easier to read having gotten my second booster three hours ago. The pharmacist at CVS clearly did not care how old I were or whether I had a condition that put me at higher risk. I have a feeling most do not, in case you are under the age cutoff but have been wanting to get your next booster.
posted by BuddhaInABucket at 9:44 PM on July 8, 2022 [17 favorites]
posted by BuddhaInABucket at 9:44 PM on July 8, 2022 [17 favorites]
I watch TWiV and they don't seem to agree with Topol, calling him a cardiologist "media scientist" who should be staying in his lane. I don't know if they've responded to this new essay though.
posted by polymodus at 9:45 PM on July 8, 2022 [7 favorites]
posted by polymodus at 9:45 PM on July 8, 2022 [7 favorites]
The pharmacist at CVS clearly did not care how old I were or whether I had a condition that put me at higher risk.
Compared to the hassle I went through to get my original two shots, the boosters are being handed out like crappy Halloween candy they can' t give away fast enough - even though I've heard from multiple sources that they offer minimal benefit to anyone that isn't in a high-risk category.
I'm a patient person who rarely got out even pre-pandemic, but even so I'm SO tired of this whole business and I'm really ready for it to be over...
posted by Greg_Ace at 10:14 PM on July 8, 2022 [11 favorites]
Compared to the hassle I went through to get my original two shots, the boosters are being handed out like crappy Halloween candy they can' t give away fast enough - even though I've heard from multiple sources that they offer minimal benefit to anyone that isn't in a high-risk category.
I'm a patient person who rarely got out even pre-pandemic, but even so I'm SO tired of this whole business and I'm really ready for it to be over...
posted by Greg_Ace at 10:14 PM on July 8, 2022 [11 favorites]
This is a great time to upgrade your masks! I switched to p100s which are lovely on several fronts. First, they’re not disposable so saving a lot of waste. They’re also cheaper than n95s! They do a much better job protecting you from the virus as the seal and filtration are better. The GVS Elipse is great as is a 3M 7502, although you will need to buy the cartridges separately for it. People have had a generally positive response to me in public in the GVS and largely ignored me entirely in the 3M. Both are available readily online.
This is the time to re-commit to masking around others - both indoors and out - and avoiding inside spaces as much as possible.
posted by Bottlecap at 12:38 AM on July 9, 2022 [54 favorites]
This is the time to re-commit to masking around others - both indoors and out - and avoiding inside spaces as much as possible.
posted by Bottlecap at 12:38 AM on July 9, 2022 [54 favorites]
It might be easier to convince at risk people to vaccinate (at least in the US) if the messaging from the government around vaccines wasn't so misleading. Biden & crew essentially promised freedom from masks and never worrying about any of this again as the carrot for the first vaccine, instead of a more realistic message that this is an initial and important step but not the end.
A lot of people stopped paying attention to anything covid related and literally think it's behind us. I assume this includes many at risk people, through no particular fault of their own.
posted by internet of pillows at 2:02 AM on July 9, 2022 [15 favorites]
A lot of people stopped paying attention to anything covid related and literally think it's behind us. I assume this includes many at risk people, through no particular fault of their own.
posted by internet of pillows at 2:02 AM on July 9, 2022 [15 favorites]
I've been wondering if I should have gotten that 2nd booster. Since now I have covid. But I listened to the advice I could find, which was a 2nd booster probably would be of little value against the new variants. Who knows if it would have made a difference but I am regretting not getting it. I'll get anything available coming up.
posted by tiny frying pan at 4:24 AM on July 9, 2022 [6 favorites]
posted by tiny frying pan at 4:24 AM on July 9, 2022 [6 favorites]
In hindsight, promising a future of never having to worry about masking and covid if one got the vaccine was a pretty stupid promise considering how many people already weren't worrying about masking and covid.
And I am pissed because they did promise relief, and I got the shot and the booster (I'm waiting for the fall to get my second, hopefully omicron-specific booster) and I've been masking and I've mostly been staying home and catching covid is still a real possibility.
And to make matters more frustrating, since Trump and company weren't ever punished for fiddling while half a million Americans died, it's pretty much impossible to complain in good conscience about Biden's merely half-assed response.
posted by RonButNotStupid at 4:27 AM on July 9, 2022 [12 favorites]
And I am pissed because they did promise relief, and I got the shot and the booster (I'm waiting for the fall to get my second, hopefully omicron-specific booster) and I've been masking and I've mostly been staying home and catching covid is still a real possibility.
And to make matters more frustrating, since Trump and company weren't ever punished for fiddling while half a million Americans died, it's pretty much impossible to complain in good conscience about Biden's merely half-assed response.
posted by RonButNotStupid at 4:27 AM on July 9, 2022 [12 favorites]
(Spent 4+ hours outdoors with 9 people. 6 people then left. One person joined us outside for an hour and left. Then me, my husband, and the remaining 2 people went inside for maybe 1.5 hours. One of them tested positive the next day. Guess which guests now have covid? Yep, the 3 of us who spent time inside with the positive person [who was outside with everyone all day]. I would barely believe it if it hadn't just happened. After all this time, and being careful for years. Invited it right into my home and didn't even worry about it. Sigh.)
posted by tiny frying pan at 4:28 AM on July 9, 2022 [44 favorites]
posted by tiny frying pan at 4:28 AM on July 9, 2022 [44 favorites]
I've been wondering if I should have gotten that 2nd booster.
In the past they've recommended waiting six months between shots and supposedly the shot in the fall will be omicron variant-specific. Since I don't have any at-risk factors, I've decided to wait so I can get the good stuff sooner rather than potentially later.
posted by RonButNotStupid at 4:30 AM on July 9, 2022 [7 favorites]
In the past they've recommended waiting six months between shots and supposedly the shot in the fall will be omicron variant-specific. Since I don't have any at-risk factors, I've decided to wait so I can get the good stuff sooner rather than potentially later.
posted by RonButNotStupid at 4:30 AM on July 9, 2022 [7 favorites]
But if that's the case! That I, who was careful, like almost all the people I know...who also listens to science...didn't get the 2nd booster (and maybe the 2nd booster doesn't help enough) - then what is the surge going to be like, now? I am afraid for everyone I know.
posted by tiny frying pan at 4:31 AM on July 9, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by tiny frying pan at 4:31 AM on July 9, 2022 [4 favorites]
I didn't have any risk factors either. Don't be cavalier about indoor risk. I will be masking indoors no matter what after I kick this. Even in my own home.
posted by tiny frying pan at 4:33 AM on July 9, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by tiny frying pan at 4:33 AM on July 9, 2022 [5 favorites]
(And that doesn't seem practical or sustainable even as I say it. But I am scared.)
posted by tiny frying pan at 4:41 AM on July 9, 2022
posted by tiny frying pan at 4:41 AM on July 9, 2022
By "at-risk" factors, I meant health conditions which would definitely lead to a life-threatening case of covid. Technically speaking, I don't qualify for the second booster according to official recommendations.
I had covid back in April despite having received the third booster last October. Just prior to getting covid, I was considering the second booster so the timing would be right to get another booster this coming October. But now that I'm inside the 6 month window, I'm just masking and being cautious.
It does suck that most of the covid relief has dried up. My workplace no longer has a separate charge code for covid--we're on our own when it comes to having enough sick time to get through it!
posted by RonButNotStupid at 4:48 AM on July 9, 2022 [3 favorites]
I had covid back in April despite having received the third booster last October. Just prior to getting covid, I was considering the second booster so the timing would be right to get another booster this coming October. But now that I'm inside the 6 month window, I'm just masking and being cautious.
It does suck that most of the covid relief has dried up. My workplace no longer has a separate charge code for covid--we're on our own when it comes to having enough sick time to get through it!
posted by RonButNotStupid at 4:48 AM on July 9, 2022 [3 favorites]
I know what you meant by at risk factors. I'm still wondering whether this official advice to not get a 2nd booster makes sense. Since I now have covid. And a lot of other people likely will too, since we're well far away from omicron boosters. Mask up, everywhere.
posted by tiny frying pan at 4:54 AM on July 9, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by tiny frying pan at 4:54 AM on July 9, 2022 [1 favorite]
Biden & crew essentially promised freedom from masks and never worrying about any of this again as the carrot for the first vaccine, instead of a more realistic message that this is an initial and important step but not the end.This was the point where I mentally switched from thinking of the CDC as bumbling to actively trying to help the virus spread. They made those claims without any supporting evidence — it was just whatever the downtown business association needed to say we should all go back to retail.
posted by adamsc at 4:57 AM on July 9, 2022 [44 favorites]
Facing a winter wave here in Australia, over 30s now can get the 4th shot (it's a three shot vaccine) and over 50s are encouraged.
posted by freethefeet at 5:05 AM on July 9, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by freethefeet at 5:05 AM on July 9, 2022 [3 favorites]
I got the 2nd booster (4th shot) as soon as it was available for me because I was touring a book, and going to book festivals, and would be in front of literally thousands of people a day. It worked, along with masking and otherwise being sensible.
I come home and basically see no one and go nowhere and I still got it, probably because I wasn't wearing a mask when I did make trips into town.
Because of the various shots, my session with COVID was physically pretty mild (a couple of days of chills, lethargy and a lot of phlegm) but also made me mentally scattershot at a point where I had a book deadline, which is a thing I'm still dealing with a bit. Not great, but as someone who had loved ones die from the virus, sort of a "best case scenario" version of a symptomatic infection. I really do urge people to fully vax up; I don't like thinking about my condition if I hadn't been.
I have three conventions between now and the end of the year, two in September and one at the end of October. I'll be wearing masks at all of them, and should a fifth shot become available, I'll be getting one of those, too.
posted by jscalzi at 5:20 AM on July 9, 2022 [53 favorites]
I come home and basically see no one and go nowhere and I still got it, probably because I wasn't wearing a mask when I did make trips into town.
Because of the various shots, my session with COVID was physically pretty mild (a couple of days of chills, lethargy and a lot of phlegm) but also made me mentally scattershot at a point where I had a book deadline, which is a thing I'm still dealing with a bit. Not great, but as someone who had loved ones die from the virus, sort of a "best case scenario" version of a symptomatic infection. I really do urge people to fully vax up; I don't like thinking about my condition if I hadn't been.
I have three conventions between now and the end of the year, two in September and one at the end of October. I'll be wearing masks at all of them, and should a fifth shot become available, I'll be getting one of those, too.
posted by jscalzi at 5:20 AM on July 9, 2022 [53 favorites]
I tried five different pharmacies last week trying to get a second booster after reading this article last week. Every single one of the five turned me away because I’m under 50 and don’t meet their threshold of immunocompromised. I cried in multiple parking lots. I can’t believe the science is that different for a 45 year old with asthma and autoimmune issues than for a ‘healthy’ 50 year old? Why the rationing? Do they not have enough to go around?
posted by stellaluna at 5:47 AM on July 9, 2022 [34 favorites]
posted by stellaluna at 5:47 AM on July 9, 2022 [34 favorites]
I have three conventions between now and the end of the year, two in September and one at the end of October. I'll be wearing masks at all of them, and should a fifth shot become available, I'll be getting one of those, too.
Please do, my daughter got covid 2x in like 4 months. I realize it is anecdata, but it seems like the expected immunity from actually having the virus didn't really happen. Stay safe out there.
posted by Literaryhero at 5:50 AM on July 9, 2022 [5 favorites]
Please do, my daughter got covid 2x in like 4 months. I realize it is anecdata, but it seems like the expected immunity from actually having the virus didn't really happen. Stay safe out there.
posted by Literaryhero at 5:50 AM on July 9, 2022 [5 favorites]
I'm getting my 4th shot /2nd boost today, especially after the good comments in this recent AskMe thread COVID-19 vaccine dose #4.
I try to be resigned to the "I will get Covid sometime anyway" mindset, and reassure myself that when that happens it will be mild. Also that I won't give it to someone else as easily. But it's hard (not to worry) when you're in the zone merely because of age, and some health factors, and know that many other people think it's all over and aren't doing anything protective at all.
stellaluna I wish you all the best, I'm so sorry for what you're going through.
posted by winesong at 5:55 AM on July 9, 2022 [1 favorite]
I try to be resigned to the "I will get Covid sometime anyway" mindset, and reassure myself that when that happens it will be mild. Also that I won't give it to someone else as easily. But it's hard (not to worry) when you're in the zone merely because of age, and some health factors, and know that many other people think it's all over and aren't doing anything protective at all.
stellaluna I wish you all the best, I'm so sorry for what you're going through.
posted by winesong at 5:55 AM on July 9, 2022 [1 favorite]
Literaryhero: you’re not wrong to think that’s more than coincidence. Adopting the “let it rip” strategy has meant the new variants are spreading rapidly and BA.1 is a different branch then BA.2 or BA.5 so having had one doesn’t give especially strong protection against the others.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05053-w
posted by adamsc at 6:05 AM on July 9, 2022 [4 favorites]
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05053-w
posted by adamsc at 6:05 AM on July 9, 2022 [4 favorites]
I'm so pissed at my work place. I live in camp two weeks out of three and they aren't even doing the easy, zero/low impact stuff to try and fight this. EG: all our buses, which we have to take to and from our actual work places (no walking allowed) were equipped with HEPA filteration units. But the fan is noisy (though no noisier than the A/C which no one complains about) so they are turned off. Masks of course aren't required anywhere so about 0.1% of people wear them voluntarily. They stopped even the limited weekly testing they were doing (and then trumpeted the reduced numbers of people in isolation where being isolated might cost you 5 days pay. Geez i wonder why those numbers went down). They aren't even allowing take out of dinners so people could eat in their rooms.
But the culture is scoff law too. I go into the clinic to get self administer tests every turn around and it is common to see the staff sitting around without masks even though they are still required by law in that area. I actually had the LPN tell me the mask requirement is only for sick people when I brought it up.
posted by Mitheral at 6:53 AM on July 9, 2022 [9 favorites]
But the culture is scoff law too. I go into the clinic to get self administer tests every turn around and it is common to see the staff sitting around without masks even though they are still required by law in that area. I actually had the LPN tell me the mask requirement is only for sick people when I brought it up.
posted by Mitheral at 6:53 AM on July 9, 2022 [9 favorites]
I had covid recently and in hindsight, I wish there would have been an easily available way to learn what variant it was. Knowing that wouldn't change anything in what I do, but it would have been interesting to know, given how currently there are multiple variants going around.
Anecdotally, there is clearly a substantial outbreak locally since so many of my friends and coworkers have either just gotten over it or are sick with it right now. Most had fairly mild cases but a few were sick enough to need 2-3 weeks of medical leave and medical attention. Very few of these cases are being reported, since it is almost entirely home testing and not severe enough to need medical intervention, so I think the official case numbers are not as informative any more.
posted by Dip Flash at 6:58 AM on July 9, 2022 [8 favorites]
Anecdotally, there is clearly a substantial outbreak locally since so many of my friends and coworkers have either just gotten over it or are sick with it right now. Most had fairly mild cases but a few were sick enough to need 2-3 weeks of medical leave and medical attention. Very few of these cases are being reported, since it is almost entirely home testing and not severe enough to need medical intervention, so I think the official case numbers are not as informative any more.
posted by Dip Flash at 6:58 AM on July 9, 2022 [8 favorites]
(Definitely encourage anyone in the US who home tested positive to report - you can do it through the iHealth app on a smartphone after watching a video tutorial about using their home test)
posted by tiny frying pan at 7:03 AM on July 9, 2022 [6 favorites]
posted by tiny frying pan at 7:03 AM on July 9, 2022 [6 favorites]
Isn't it better to get a PCR test? I know the CDC gets all the data that way, and maybe the sample? It had been easier, but i think now only CVS and Walgreens are doing the testing.
I miss the national guard testing centers. they were much friendlier and courteous, probably because they were not being overworked. privatizing the testing has been so much more inconvenient
posted by eustatic at 7:27 AM on July 9, 2022
I miss the national guard testing centers. they were much friendlier and courteous, probably because they were not being overworked. privatizing the testing has been so much more inconvenient
posted by eustatic at 7:27 AM on July 9, 2022
I tried five different pharmacies last week trying to get a second booster after reading this article last week. Every single one of the five turned me away because I’m under 50 and don’t meet their threshold of immunocompromised. I cried in multiple parking lots. I can’t believe the science is that different for a 45 year old with asthma and autoimmune issues than for a ‘healthy’ 50 year old? Why the rationing? Do they not have enough to go around?
posted by stellaluna at 5:47 AM on July 9
curious, did you have a note from your doctor? do you have a doc?
posted by eustatic at 7:31 AM on July 9, 2022
posted by stellaluna at 5:47 AM on July 9
curious, did you have a note from your doctor? do you have a doc?
posted by eustatic at 7:31 AM on July 9, 2022
Ugh. I haven’t even gotten my first booster. I know, I know. It’s just been lower on my priority, and I wanted to mix and match, but getting Moderna near me has been weirdly difficult.
I’m also one of the lucky/unlucky ones that got covid before vaccines were available; so the idea of superimmunity has given me some boldness. And then dragged my feet in the second vaccine which turned out to put me in the 8-12 week time frame that proved to have a longer lasting immune response.
I’ve been living life ALMOST pre-covid and maskess since March. Testing regularly, always negative. I keep expecting to get omicron anyway, especially as last vaccine was June 2021…. I go to the gym where people pant and I haven’t been masking up there for probably a year. Maybe longer? I have been in big crowds. I’ve had near covid contacts and a roommate who has been accidentally around covid positive colleagues.
No covid; and since omicron has some immune escape; I just figured I’d wait until the omicron specific booster is out - it’s been this long, a little while longer won’t be so bad, right?
Except BA.5 sounds like a monster; and one of my fully vaccinated friends just got covid for the first time; I assume BA.5. She said she ached so bad that it felt like her bones were trying to escape her body.
So Monday I’m driving to the burbs to get Moderna. Why it’s impossible to get in the heart of my city, idk.
However, I am going to (mostly) keep living life like covid isn’t a problem anymore. And that includes being (mostly) maskless. Sure I’ve developed some habits, like staying six feet away from people in casual conversations, six feet in lines. I do more outdoor activities especially when there is a gathering. I haven’t resumed precovid activities to the frequency I used to. But I’m working my way back.
I’m sure many here will disagree with this, but covid times broke me. I was so isolated and alone and afraid. I’m not going back as long as we have reasonable health mitigation measures, and we do, at least at the moment. A new variant could change that, but for now, I have to live life.
I’m gonna go out dancing in a crowd on Wednesday, just like I did a couple weeks ago. It was the best return to normalcy I badly needed.
Monday booster, Wednesday dancing. Covid be damned.
posted by [insert clever name here] at 7:31 AM on July 9, 2022 [15 favorites]
I’m also one of the lucky/unlucky ones that got covid before vaccines were available; so the idea of superimmunity has given me some boldness. And then dragged my feet in the second vaccine which turned out to put me in the 8-12 week time frame that proved to have a longer lasting immune response.
I’ve been living life ALMOST pre-covid and maskess since March. Testing regularly, always negative. I keep expecting to get omicron anyway, especially as last vaccine was June 2021…. I go to the gym where people pant and I haven’t been masking up there for probably a year. Maybe longer? I have been in big crowds. I’ve had near covid contacts and a roommate who has been accidentally around covid positive colleagues.
No covid; and since omicron has some immune escape; I just figured I’d wait until the omicron specific booster is out - it’s been this long, a little while longer won’t be so bad, right?
Except BA.5 sounds like a monster; and one of my fully vaccinated friends just got covid for the first time; I assume BA.5. She said she ached so bad that it felt like her bones were trying to escape her body.
So Monday I’m driving to the burbs to get Moderna. Why it’s impossible to get in the heart of my city, idk.
However, I am going to (mostly) keep living life like covid isn’t a problem anymore. And that includes being (mostly) maskless. Sure I’ve developed some habits, like staying six feet away from people in casual conversations, six feet in lines. I do more outdoor activities especially when there is a gathering. I haven’t resumed precovid activities to the frequency I used to. But I’m working my way back.
I’m sure many here will disagree with this, but covid times broke me. I was so isolated and alone and afraid. I’m not going back as long as we have reasonable health mitigation measures, and we do, at least at the moment. A new variant could change that, but for now, I have to live life.
I’m gonna go out dancing in a crowd on Wednesday, just like I did a couple weeks ago. It was the best return to normalcy I badly needed.
Monday booster, Wednesday dancing. Covid be damned.
posted by [insert clever name here] at 7:31 AM on July 9, 2022 [15 favorites]
I’m not going back as long as we have reasonable health mitigation measures
For me, masks are more than reasonable.
posted by tiny frying pan at 7:37 AM on July 9, 2022 [51 favorites]
For me, masks are more than reasonable.
posted by tiny frying pan at 7:37 AM on July 9, 2022 [51 favorites]
CDC as bumbling to actively trying to help the virus spread
This. As a biologist with some training in disease ecology, I now think of the CDC as being compromised at the top levels. They do great work and have great scientists. Then they sit on the results if the political mouthpiece find that more expedient. Don't read their press releases, read their research bulletins, they generally aren't sugar coating things.
posted by SaltySalticid at 7:43 AM on July 9, 2022 [55 favorites]
This. As a biologist with some training in disease ecology, I now think of the CDC as being compromised at the top levels. They do great work and have great scientists. Then they sit on the results if the political mouthpiece find that more expedient. Don't read their press releases, read their research bulletins, they generally aren't sugar coating things.
posted by SaltySalticid at 7:43 AM on July 9, 2022 [55 favorites]
I got the second booster back in March. The rule at the time was that only older/high-risk people were eligible, but the people at the pharmacy didn't even ask.
Oh, good, I was hoping to get here in time for the fat-shaming.
posted by box at 7:44 AM on July 9, 2022 [19 favorites]
Oh, good, I was hoping to get here in time for the fat-shaming.
posted by box at 7:44 AM on July 9, 2022 [19 favorites]
Mrs C and I have had the 2 mRNA shots and one booster, and are now eligible for #4, because we're over the XX age threshold. Neither of us have had COVID, or we had it asymptomatically without knowing ... though, based on symptoms, I strongly suspect Mrs C had the original flavour in the late fall of 2019 (she was in contact with some travellers at the time).
This thread confirms that the messaging, beliefs and attitudes are still all over the place. Particularly masking. If one isn't properly wearing a N95 or better mask, then there isn't that much protection to the user from a basic cloth or surgical mask. The main point of the original mass masking mandate (alliterative 3-pointer) was to stop the spread from those unknowingly infected... because the known infected knew enough to stay the f#@k home., or so we hoped. At present, only those concerned about becoming infected are masking, and the rest DGAF.
I confess to mask fatigue, and I haven't been masking when shopping or at friends'. I will reconsider if there's another surge. We have remained wary, and endeavour to maintain 6ft distance from strangers whenever possible. My current belief is that we aren't that often in crowds, and our vaccinations are up-to-date, so we have a low chance of contracting COVID, and would most likely have a milder case if we did.
Place yer bets...
posted by Artful Codger at 7:48 AM on July 9, 2022 [1 favorite]
This thread confirms that the messaging, beliefs and attitudes are still all over the place. Particularly masking. If one isn't properly wearing a N95 or better mask, then there isn't that much protection to the user from a basic cloth or surgical mask. The main point of the original mass masking mandate (alliterative 3-pointer) was to stop the spread from those unknowingly infected... because the known infected knew enough to stay the f#@k home., or so we hoped. At present, only those concerned about becoming infected are masking, and the rest DGAF.
I confess to mask fatigue, and I haven't been masking when shopping or at friends'. I will reconsider if there's another surge. We have remained wary, and endeavour to maintain 6ft distance from strangers whenever possible. My current belief is that we aren't that often in crowds, and our vaccinations are up-to-date, so we have a low chance of contracting COVID, and would most likely have a milder case if we did.
Place yer bets...
posted by Artful Codger at 7:48 AM on July 9, 2022 [1 favorite]
lometogo, this thread is about covid. You're welcome to join the conversation. About covid. If you're critical about irrational fears, I'm in multiyear isolation per doctors' orders due to complications from a transplant that saved my life due to a genetic defect that was introduced upon my conception. Unless my folks were into having an audience, and they're really not the type, I can confidently say big pharma wasn't present.
posted by mochapickle at 7:49 AM on July 9, 2022 [43 favorites]
posted by mochapickle at 7:49 AM on July 9, 2022 [43 favorites]
I had the same experience as Stellaluna.
posted by fake at 7:52 AM on July 9, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by fake at 7:52 AM on July 9, 2022 [1 favorite]
Wildly anecdotal data incoming, but here's my experience:
Fast forward 5 months and we've got this substantially more contagious variant and it's no surprise to me that we are seeing a new wave, I was on a plane full of people coming into the States, 95% of whom were maskless and 100% of whom were not required to have been tested. I'm wearing a FFP2 mask, and trying to be smart about when I take it off, but it wasn't enough.That was only three weeks ago! Multiply that plane by the thousands of planes that have been flying in since, and yeah, everyone needs to raise their vigilance levels substantially this summer.
posted by jeremias at 8:03 AM on July 9, 2022 [14 favorites]
- May 21. I got my second booster as I just managed to pass the age threshold. (So four shots in total- all Moderna FWIW).
- June 7. I fly from the US to Europe. At that point, the testing requirement to return to the US was still in place, I couldn't get my boarding pass until I showed my vax status, and the airline I chose still had a mask requirement (although the airport did not).
- June 18. I fly back from Europe but the US had lifted the testing requirement about halfway through my trip. In Vienna, noone even checks my vax status, the airline no longer has mandatory masking and I've got a long-ass travel day of 14 hours with a layover in Amsterdam (which is a complete shitshow of way too many people crammed way too closely together). I am absolutely in the minority of people wearing a mask *anywhere*. I see obvious signs of travelers with symptoms left and right.
- June 22. First symptoms appear (sore throat) and a positive rapid test confirms I have Covid. Most likely the BA 4/5 variant, due to its prevalence in Europe.
- July 6. I tested negative 4 days prior, but it's not until now (almost 2 weeks after first symptoms) that I would say I'm feeling 100%. I think I was pretty lucky in the sense that symptoms were mild (but freaking annoying, make no mistake, it sucked being sick), keeping in mind that I had my second booster one month before I caught the virus.
Fast forward 5 months and we've got this substantially more contagious variant and it's no surprise to me that we are seeing a new wave, I was on a plane full of people coming into the States, 95% of whom were maskless and 100% of whom were not required to have been tested. I'm wearing a FFP2 mask, and trying to be smart about when I take it off, but it wasn't enough.That was only three weeks ago! Multiply that plane by the thousands of planes that have been flying in since, and yeah, everyone needs to raise their vigilance levels substantially this summer.
posted by jeremias at 8:03 AM on July 9, 2022 [14 favorites]
Most US counties are experiencing very high transmission right now. When you walk around maskless you could be unknowingly participating in keeping us in this wretched cycle indefinitely. But you are le tired, so I guess it just sucks to be us eh.
posted by bleep at 8:24 AM on July 9, 2022 [70 favorites]
posted by bleep at 8:24 AM on July 9, 2022 [70 favorites]
My buddy, COVID-free for two freakin' years, masking up, staying in, the whole safety business, was on a work trip to Portugal for a week. Came down with it and is still recovering. Another friend, same safety profile, got it after being on assignment at an airport for four days (he works in security). The B.5 is not "just another variant" but that message seems to have escaped the broad public. I can understand why, I know I'm more laxer myself, I so want it to be over.
posted by storybored at 8:27 AM on July 9, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by storybored at 8:27 AM on July 9, 2022 [3 favorites]
The only way for this to end is for us ALL to work together to end it. There is no one who is more tired of it than anyone else. We all hate this equally. We can't end it if we don't decide to end it together. It's physics.
posted by bleep at 8:29 AM on July 9, 2022 [21 favorites]
posted by bleep at 8:29 AM on July 9, 2022 [21 favorites]
The only way for this to end is for us ALL to work together to end it. There is no one who is more tired of it than anyone else. We all hate this equally. We can't end it if we don't decide to end it together. It's physics.
It's a highly-contagious respiratory disease in world-wide circulation. I genuinely can't think of a way to collectively decide to "end it" aside from some kind of fantasy complete worldwide lockdown with 100% compliance.
We can make things better (like getting more people vaccinated, increasing use of masks, etc.), but none of that is going to make it "end." Maybe there will be a new vaccine or treatment that conclusively ends it at some point in the future, but nothing available in the near term would do that.
This is much more of a "learn to live with it" situation, unfortunately. (And, also unfortunately, the way we are doing that in the US means that we are going to continue to have higher hospitalizations and higher deaths than many other places.)
posted by Dip Flash at 8:52 AM on July 9, 2022 [35 favorites]
It's a highly-contagious respiratory disease in world-wide circulation. I genuinely can't think of a way to collectively decide to "end it" aside from some kind of fantasy complete worldwide lockdown with 100% compliance.
We can make things better (like getting more people vaccinated, increasing use of masks, etc.), but none of that is going to make it "end." Maybe there will be a new vaccine or treatment that conclusively ends it at some point in the future, but nothing available in the near term would do that.
This is much more of a "learn to live with it" situation, unfortunately. (And, also unfortunately, the way we are doing that in the US means that we are going to continue to have higher hospitalizations and higher deaths than many other places.)
posted by Dip Flash at 8:52 AM on July 9, 2022 [35 favorites]
It's a highly-contagious respiratory disease in world-wide circulation. I genuinely can't think of a way to collectively decide to "end it" aside from some kind of fantasy complete worldwide lockdown with 100% compliance
Also there are now multiple animal reservoirs (30% of white tailed deer and 40% of dogs have COVID antibodies) which means that unless you can find a way to get wild animals masked and vaccinated, even that will not work.
posted by derrinyet at 8:55 AM on July 9, 2022 [11 favorites]
Also there are now multiple animal reservoirs (30% of white tailed deer and 40% of dogs have COVID antibodies) which means that unless you can find a way to get wild animals masked and vaccinated, even that will not work.
posted by derrinyet at 8:55 AM on July 9, 2022 [11 favorites]
I'll accept it's impossible when I see us making a concerted effort. How can we say it's impossible when we've barely even tried. Just wear a damn mask and get over yourselves.
posted by bleep at 8:57 AM on July 9, 2022 [30 favorites]
posted by bleep at 8:57 AM on July 9, 2022 [30 favorites]
Upper room UVGI and high speed HVAC air changeover is how we stop most transmission. These are things that can be mandated by government fiat and do not require stupid people to do things they don’t believe in, like mask or vaccine. Just make it a requirement for a business occupancy permit. And done.
Write your politician. Make a big deal about it.
posted by seanmpuckett at 9:01 AM on July 9, 2022 [22 favorites]
Write your politician. Make a big deal about it.
posted by seanmpuckett at 9:01 AM on July 9, 2022 [22 favorites]
I write this while being flattened with COVID, as is Mrs. Microscone and Microscone Jr. She'd acquired the 2nd booster, I hadn't yet.
Overall our family has been on the "very careful" end of the spectrum. No restaurants, masked in stores, etc. Add best we can tell, our family contacted it while Jr was eating lunch at a day camp which we judged to be pretty covid-aware.
Anecdata from observing the recent travel of friends and acquaintances... Seems like for every flight you take, each member of your party has a one in five chance of contacting COVID.
posted by microscone at 9:06 AM on July 9, 2022 [7 favorites]
Overall our family has been on the "very careful" end of the spectrum. No restaurants, masked in stores, etc. Add best we can tell, our family contacted it while Jr was eating lunch at a day camp which we judged to be pretty covid-aware.
Anecdata from observing the recent travel of friends and acquaintances... Seems like for every flight you take, each member of your party has a one in five chance of contacting COVID.
posted by microscone at 9:06 AM on July 9, 2022 [7 favorites]
I’m not really one for anecdata, but man, I hear all these stories like “I masked 100% of the time, even while sleeping in my own bed, and I haven’t left my house since March 2020, and then I talked to the letter carrier through an open window from across the room and now I have Covid” and I’m like… what’s the point of living like this?
I haven’t worn a mask except when required since April and so far, no Covid. I dunno. I can’t worry about it anymore. No one else is.
posted by rhymedirective at 9:13 AM on July 9, 2022 [8 favorites]
I haven’t worn a mask except when required since April and so far, no Covid. I dunno. I can’t worry about it anymore. No one else is.
posted by rhymedirective at 9:13 AM on July 9, 2022 [8 favorites]
I'll accept it's impossible when I see us making a concerted effort. How can we say it's impossible when we've barely even tried
The “making a concerted effort” is the impossible part. The number of people who believe it’s over / don’t care / think it’s about their freedoms / are tired / etc outnumber the people who were willing to make that effort back when it had a chance of helping. It’s too late. The disease is endemic. It’s not going away.
posted by ook at 9:17 AM on July 9, 2022 [18 favorites]
The “making a concerted effort” is the impossible part. The number of people who believe it’s over / don’t care / think it’s about their freedoms / are tired / etc outnumber the people who were willing to make that effort back when it had a chance of helping. It’s too late. The disease is endemic. It’s not going away.
posted by ook at 9:17 AM on July 9, 2022 [18 favorites]
I did that for a year and a half. I’m done now.
See you around when we hit 2 million deaths in the US, then?
posted by CrystalDave at 9:17 AM on July 9, 2022 [59 favorites]
See you around when we hit 2 million deaths in the US, then?
posted by CrystalDave at 9:17 AM on July 9, 2022 [59 favorites]
Why is a mask a hardship? I don’t really understand humans I guess
posted by angrycat at 9:25 AM on July 9, 2022 [84 favorites]
posted by angrycat at 9:25 AM on July 9, 2022 [84 favorites]
I should have mentioned that we have pretty much avoided all travel since the start of 2020, except for day-trips alone in a vehicle. That's partly due to preference (we hate crowds) and budget (no money at the time to travel with), but once COVID hit, we doubled down.
I truly believe that air traffic is an unreasonable risk for us, and maybe most people. Between COVID, and the ongoing chaos at airports, I don't expect to consider travelling by air for at least 8 to 10 months.
The vaccines are available, especially to us firstworlders, the detailed knowledge for how best to avoid getting infected is out there (except too many people still dont understand the how and why of masking)... is COVID still a crisis worth upending economics and society for? When we've got a nice European shooting war to fret about? [facepalm]. There absolutely should be better leadership around the ongoing COVID situation, but there is also this thing called freedom (or freedumb as some people practice it), and I don't know whether we now require the same extent of interventions and restrictions that we used (with some success) in 2020 and 2021.
posted by Artful Codger at 9:30 AM on July 9, 2022
I truly believe that air traffic is an unreasonable risk for us, and maybe most people. Between COVID, and the ongoing chaos at airports, I don't expect to consider travelling by air for at least 8 to 10 months.
The vaccines are available, especially to us firstworlders, the detailed knowledge for how best to avoid getting infected is out there (except too many people still dont understand the how and why of masking)... is COVID still a crisis worth upending economics and society for? When we've got a nice European shooting war to fret about? [facepalm]. There absolutely should be better leadership around the ongoing COVID situation, but there is also this thing called freedom (or freedumb as some people practice it), and I don't know whether we now require the same extent of interventions and restrictions that we used (with some success) in 2020 and 2021.
posted by Artful Codger at 9:30 AM on July 9, 2022
Why is a mask a hardship? I don’t really understand humans I guess
Don't worry! For your edification, we'll have plenty more society-wide examples of childish selfishness, with the direct cost of other's health & lives, as the world turns to shit in the climate crisis!
Bon appetit!
posted by lalochezia at 9:30 AM on July 9, 2022 [27 favorites]
I’m not really one for anecdata, but man, I hear all these stories like “I masked 100% of the time, even while sleeping in my own bed, and I haven’t left my house since March 2020, and then I talked to the letter carrier through an open window from across the room and now I have Covid” and I’m like… what’s the point of living like this?
I don't think that's particularly charitable to the anecdotes.
In my experience, I was super-careful...until I wasn't. Numbers were way down in March 2022, I was double-vaxxed and boosted, and decided to go to a bar. Boom, covid.
My partner went to a smaller brunch party, wore a mask for part of the time, but not the whole time (eating, natch), boom, covid.
We're getting covid because we're caught slipping.
But also? The US never, ever, ever did a good job of actually promoting well-fitting masks. We had cloth masks first, then N95s, but I haven't seen a whole lot of PSAs about how to actually fit the mask to one's face. People wear a mask over the mouth and not the nose, or otherwise have an obviously bad fit. It's a filtration device, not a magic talisman, but people act like "wearing a mask" is the same as "wearing a cross."
Me? I've doubled down. My mask of choice is now an elastomeric ventilator. No half-measures. Work wants me in the office for 8 hours? That's how I'm breathing for 8 hours.
posted by explosion at 9:38 AM on July 9, 2022 [26 favorites]
I don't think that's particularly charitable to the anecdotes.
In my experience, I was super-careful...until I wasn't. Numbers were way down in March 2022, I was double-vaxxed and boosted, and decided to go to a bar. Boom, covid.
My partner went to a smaller brunch party, wore a mask for part of the time, but not the whole time (eating, natch), boom, covid.
We're getting covid because we're caught slipping.
But also? The US never, ever, ever did a good job of actually promoting well-fitting masks. We had cloth masks first, then N95s, but I haven't seen a whole lot of PSAs about how to actually fit the mask to one's face. People wear a mask over the mouth and not the nose, or otherwise have an obviously bad fit. It's a filtration device, not a magic talisman, but people act like "wearing a mask" is the same as "wearing a cross."
Me? I've doubled down. My mask of choice is now an elastomeric ventilator. No half-measures. Work wants me in the office for 8 hours? That's how I'm breathing for 8 hours.
posted by explosion at 9:38 AM on July 9, 2022 [26 favorites]
I haven’t worn a mask except when required since April and so far, no Covid. I dunno. I can’t worry about it anymore. No one else is.
I am double-boosted as of a month ago, and am encouraging my wife to seek her second booster a month or two before her 50th birthday arrives. I am stopping by my local Lowe's today to top off our N95 supply.
And when we go up to visit my in-laws, I watch as they have us eat in at restaurants occasionally, where my wife and I are the only masked people in the building (mask comes off to shovel food in, then goes back on). We go to Walmart with them, and we see maybe one out of ten masked. My father-in-law, who JUST HAD COVID a couple of weeks ago (he went in to work, someone in the room had COVID, everyone else in the room got it), is back to everyday, maskless habits.
I am not locking myself in my bedroom and only accepting food that passes through a series of interlocking, sterilized compartments. I am weighing risks in my actions, taking small risks when they seem appropriate and avoiding larger ones that do not.
But everything that I have read about COVID in general and BA.5 in particular reinforces my belief that I do not want them, even if I am moderately protected and less likely to be hospitalized. I have avoided them this far. I have given up on my fellow man; many and perhaps most will get infected, many will suffer, some will die. I have the choice whether to protect myself as best I can, and to protect the people I will subsequently breathe near, and I'm making it.
Because there are people out there who are sufficiently immunosuppressed that they do have to worry about it constantly... and I'd rather be on their side than on the masses'.
posted by delfin at 9:41 AM on July 9, 2022 [29 favorites]
I am double-boosted as of a month ago, and am encouraging my wife to seek her second booster a month or two before her 50th birthday arrives. I am stopping by my local Lowe's today to top off our N95 supply.
And when we go up to visit my in-laws, I watch as they have us eat in at restaurants occasionally, where my wife and I are the only masked people in the building (mask comes off to shovel food in, then goes back on). We go to Walmart with them, and we see maybe one out of ten masked. My father-in-law, who JUST HAD COVID a couple of weeks ago (he went in to work, someone in the room had COVID, everyone else in the room got it), is back to everyday, maskless habits.
I am not locking myself in my bedroom and only accepting food that passes through a series of interlocking, sterilized compartments. I am weighing risks in my actions, taking small risks when they seem appropriate and avoiding larger ones that do not.
But everything that I have read about COVID in general and BA.5 in particular reinforces my belief that I do not want them, even if I am moderately protected and less likely to be hospitalized. I have avoided them this far. I have given up on my fellow man; many and perhaps most will get infected, many will suffer, some will die. I have the choice whether to protect myself as best I can, and to protect the people I will subsequently breathe near, and I'm making it.
Because there are people out there who are sufficiently immunosuppressed that they do have to worry about it constantly... and I'd rather be on their side than on the masses'.
posted by delfin at 9:41 AM on July 9, 2022 [29 favorites]
Why is a mask a hardship? I don’t really understand humans I guess
Skin conditions, reduced airflow means I'm disincentivized from doing things like jogging up stairs at work so my fitness level has slowly deteriorated over the course of the pandemic, social interaction and isolation increase as communication suffers slightly.
For all that I'm still masking up more than most of the people I see in the liberal bay area. It's hard to take it seriously when you go into a building and 95% are unmasked and 20% of the masked are nose peeking.
From a leadership perspective though asking people to do something they're not going to comply with is a really, really bad idea. It just erodes your authority and maybe perceived credibility as well.
Masks work, but I'm not sure mask mandates are doing anything at this point.
posted by BrotherCaine at 9:43 AM on July 9, 2022 [7 favorites]
Skin conditions, reduced airflow means I'm disincentivized from doing things like jogging up stairs at work so my fitness level has slowly deteriorated over the course of the pandemic, social interaction and isolation increase as communication suffers slightly.
For all that I'm still masking up more than most of the people I see in the liberal bay area. It's hard to take it seriously when you go into a building and 95% are unmasked and 20% of the masked are nose peeking.
From a leadership perspective though asking people to do something they're not going to comply with is a really, really bad idea. It just erodes your authority and maybe perceived credibility as well.
Masks work, but I'm not sure mask mandates are doing anything at this point.
posted by BrotherCaine at 9:43 AM on July 9, 2022 [7 favorites]
social interaction and isolation increase as communication suffers slightly
This has been my biggest dislike of mask wearing. I hate not seeing faces and not being able to read expressions or communicate with smiles. I also have very minor hearing loss and found that I have clearly been supplementing with a small amount of lip reading, plus how masks slightly muffle voices, because I have a much harder time understanding people clearly when everyone is masked.
But I'm still willing to do it when needed -- rates are high here (as indicated by my own recent case...) and I've started wearing masks in stores again, particularly because I am seeing employees and many customers masking. When others are concerned enough to do so, wearing a mask is just simple respect, whether or not you like masks or are personally concerned.
posted by Dip Flash at 9:53 AM on July 9, 2022 [6 favorites]
This has been my biggest dislike of mask wearing. I hate not seeing faces and not being able to read expressions or communicate with smiles. I also have very minor hearing loss and found that I have clearly been supplementing with a small amount of lip reading, plus how masks slightly muffle voices, because I have a much harder time understanding people clearly when everyone is masked.
But I'm still willing to do it when needed -- rates are high here (as indicated by my own recent case...) and I've started wearing masks in stores again, particularly because I am seeing employees and many customers masking. When others are concerned enough to do so, wearing a mask is just simple respect, whether or not you like masks or are personally concerned.
posted by Dip Flash at 9:53 AM on July 9, 2022 [6 favorites]
A lot of people stopped paying attention to anything covid related and literally think it's behind us.
Don't look up.
posted by flabdablet at 10:01 AM on July 9, 2022 [22 favorites]
Don't look up.
posted by flabdablet at 10:01 AM on July 9, 2022 [22 favorites]
As a family that takes more precautions than most, and has seen the benefits, we’ve started changing our response to “everybody is going to get it,” which seems more feasible every month. Our new response is “fine, but how many times do you want to get it?”
posted by q*ben at 10:05 AM on July 9, 2022 [31 favorites]
posted by q*ben at 10:05 AM on July 9, 2022 [31 favorites]
We can make things better (like getting more people vaccinated, increasing use of masks, etc.), but [...] This is much more of a "learn to live with it" situation, unfortunately.
More things we (governments, mostly) can do: incentivize companies to allow remote work to continue. Make paid sick leave a basic right for all employees, including part-time workers and contractors, so that people stay home when sick instead of infecting their coworkers. Make Paxlovid and other effective medications freely available. Remove the insane bureaucratic gateways that uninsured people have to somehow get past in order to get testing, vaccines, and treatment affordably or at all. Invest heavily in local, diversified production of high-filtration, close-fitting masks that actually stay on people's noses and subsidize those masks or hand them out universally. Subsidize testing kits or hand them out universally. Require and provide high-filtration masks on public transportation and enclosed stations and airports. Require and provide rapid tests before entrance to airports. Invest heavily in air filtration systems, especially in schools, and subsidize, incentivize, or require employers to implement them. Ensure long-term care and livable disability benefits for long covid sufferers and others paying the price that the "let's live with it" approach exacts. Improve rather than cut back monitoring and reporting: it's ridiculous that three years in we still don't have easily trackable data on consequences other than hospitalization and death. Raise awareness of the costs of the virus, rather than trying to de-emphasize them (for example, not a single person I've asked has any idea how many people here have died so far of covid; their guesses have all been off by at least one order of magnitude.) Invest in open-air public spaces such that more viable options exist year-round for gatherings and mass events. Invest in PSA programs with the message that we're all responsible for each other, that we're stronger when we care for each other. Regulate pharmaceutical companies in ways that curb their abuses and build public trust. Work to increase pharmaceutical research and production capabilities worldwide so that the poorer half of the world isn't left waiting for the richer world's scraps. Improve education of basic statistics and scientific literacy.
I hate "learn to live with it" as a slogan because it implies it's all just a matter of attitude, like you learn to live with anything else. "Invest so we can live with it" is closer to what needs to be done.
(I know, I know, this kind of investment will happen almost nowhere. But let's not pretend that there's nothing that could be done if we wanted to.)
posted by trig at 10:07 AM on July 9, 2022 [57 favorites]
More things we (governments, mostly) can do: incentivize companies to allow remote work to continue. Make paid sick leave a basic right for all employees, including part-time workers and contractors, so that people stay home when sick instead of infecting their coworkers. Make Paxlovid and other effective medications freely available. Remove the insane bureaucratic gateways that uninsured people have to somehow get past in order to get testing, vaccines, and treatment affordably or at all. Invest heavily in local, diversified production of high-filtration, close-fitting masks that actually stay on people's noses and subsidize those masks or hand them out universally. Subsidize testing kits or hand them out universally. Require and provide high-filtration masks on public transportation and enclosed stations and airports. Require and provide rapid tests before entrance to airports. Invest heavily in air filtration systems, especially in schools, and subsidize, incentivize, or require employers to implement them. Ensure long-term care and livable disability benefits for long covid sufferers and others paying the price that the "let's live with it" approach exacts. Improve rather than cut back monitoring and reporting: it's ridiculous that three years in we still don't have easily trackable data on consequences other than hospitalization and death. Raise awareness of the costs of the virus, rather than trying to de-emphasize them (for example, not a single person I've asked has any idea how many people here have died so far of covid; their guesses have all been off by at least one order of magnitude.) Invest in open-air public spaces such that more viable options exist year-round for gatherings and mass events. Invest in PSA programs with the message that we're all responsible for each other, that we're stronger when we care for each other. Regulate pharmaceutical companies in ways that curb their abuses and build public trust. Work to increase pharmaceutical research and production capabilities worldwide so that the poorer half of the world isn't left waiting for the richer world's scraps. Improve education of basic statistics and scientific literacy.
I hate "learn to live with it" as a slogan because it implies it's all just a matter of attitude, like you learn to live with anything else. "Invest so we can live with it" is closer to what needs to be done.
(I know, I know, this kind of investment will happen almost nowhere. But let's not pretend that there's nothing that could be done if we wanted to.)
posted by trig at 10:07 AM on July 9, 2022 [57 favorites]
I do actually think it's reasonable to think of wearing a mask as a hardship. But I also think it's worth doing.
When I was a kid, I hated wearing clothes. I still wore them. I still pretty much hate wearing clothes. Like, if not wearing clothes was a perfectly normal and socially acceptable thing to do, count me in. But I wear clothes, and as far as I can tell, a lot of the time the only reason I'm wearing clothes is just because it's a social norm.* People would be scandalized if we didn't. Like, it's legal to not wear clothes in Oregon. But does anyone do it? No. Because it's typically still taboo, except on holidays like the World's Naked Bike Ride, or certain beaches.
I was an early mask adopter. I hated masks when they first came out. I literally could not breathe in them. They're sweaty. But I knew it was important, and I knew if I tried, I'd be able to get used to them. I am now used to them. They are still awful, but I'm more used to them.
Riding bicycles is also a hardship in the US. The infrastructure just isn't designed for them. There's inadequate campgrounds (and the ones that exist may turn you away because hiker/biker sites are being dismantled, at least across California from what I've seen), and if you're traveling between cities, you'll get shunted onto the highway in a lot of places. But that doesn't mean it's irresponsible to bike. On the contrary, it's responsible! And if everyone did it, countless lives would be saved! And we'd all have cleaner air, and it would be more pleasant to be outside, and there would be less sensory pollution generally (this is a really great article), and there would be positive health impacts on society, and people wouldn't have to worry so much about their kids or dogs running into the street, and so forth.
An aside - as a person who bikes for transportation, I feel like I have something I can use as a parallel to this to sort-of understand. I'm expecting most people to not wear masks, just like most people don't ride bikes. I don't really get it myself, because once I know something, I can't un-know it, and I know that there are still people out there dying from covid and one of the things I keep being told I can do to help prevent that is to wear a mask. But I already know from bicycling that other people are going to make other choices, and I will think they're wrong-all-wrong, but if I don't want to fall off the edge of society, I have to accept that they're probably wrong-all-wrong and move on with my life and/or do something about it.
If people can get used to wearing clothes, they can get used to wearing masks indoors.
posted by aniola at 10:09 AM on July 9, 2022 [25 favorites]
When I was a kid, I hated wearing clothes. I still wore them. I still pretty much hate wearing clothes. Like, if not wearing clothes was a perfectly normal and socially acceptable thing to do, count me in. But I wear clothes, and as far as I can tell, a lot of the time the only reason I'm wearing clothes is just because it's a social norm.* People would be scandalized if we didn't. Like, it's legal to not wear clothes in Oregon. But does anyone do it? No. Because it's typically still taboo, except on holidays like the World's Naked Bike Ride, or certain beaches.
I was an early mask adopter. I hated masks when they first came out. I literally could not breathe in them. They're sweaty. But I knew it was important, and I knew if I tried, I'd be able to get used to them. I am now used to them. They are still awful, but I'm more used to them.
Riding bicycles is also a hardship in the US. The infrastructure just isn't designed for them. There's inadequate campgrounds (and the ones that exist may turn you away because hiker/biker sites are being dismantled, at least across California from what I've seen), and if you're traveling between cities, you'll get shunted onto the highway in a lot of places. But that doesn't mean it's irresponsible to bike. On the contrary, it's responsible! And if everyone did it, countless lives would be saved! And we'd all have cleaner air, and it would be more pleasant to be outside, and there would be less sensory pollution generally (this is a really great article), and there would be positive health impacts on society, and people wouldn't have to worry so much about their kids or dogs running into the street, and so forth.
An aside - as a person who bikes for transportation, I feel like I have something I can use as a parallel to this to sort-of understand. I'm expecting most people to not wear masks, just like most people don't ride bikes. I don't really get it myself, because once I know something, I can't un-know it, and I know that there are still people out there dying from covid and one of the things I keep being told I can do to help prevent that is to wear a mask. But I already know from bicycling that other people are going to make other choices, and I will think they're wrong-all-wrong, but if I don't want to fall off the edge of society, I have to accept that they're probably wrong-all-wrong and move on with my life and/or do something about it.
If people can get used to wearing clothes, they can get used to wearing masks indoors.
posted by aniola at 10:09 AM on July 9, 2022 [25 favorites]
My current protocols:
Outside: mostly not masking while outside since I pretty much don't hear any stories of anyone catching it from outside activities. I will mask up if I'm near a bunch of people being still. I masked up sitting down in an audience last night and will again tonight at an outdoor theater show.
Inside: I have a mask on indoors if people are around, period, except for indoor food consumption. I'm really nervous about that last one and it is NOT GOOD that I do that (I bolt down the food and mask up again), but frankly, I'm not always able to talk people into outdoor dining any more or it's not an option anymore, sometimes you have to do certain activities in restaurants and it's not socially acceptable to not pay for food to be there, etc. That's my high level of danger right now. I'm going back to theater again and I will keep my mask on the entire time even if nobody else is. At this point even my theater (which had the best safety practices) is giving up--almost the entire cast of the last show got it but they are still making it "optional" to mask during rehearsal EVEN THOUGH OBVIOUSLY THAT IS WHERE EVERYONE GOT IT, which is ridiculous. We have to home test twice a week, which is gonna be expensive even after you get every free test (26 tests for the entire time, I did the math) you are eligible to get. I paid nearly $100 on Amazon to make up for the remaining 10 I'd have to get, I hope my HMO reimburses that, but I would bet money they make up some excuse not to because I didn't get them at a pharmacy or whatever.
Masks are a bit inconvenient to me (mostly because I gave up glasses-wearing due to them and now I just wander around nearsighted) but I'd rather have one on and then live my life not worrying about it when I go to shows and festivals than going free faced every day and wondering when I'm going to get it due to my own stupidity. I note that like Scalzi, a friend's parent got it recently from going shopping indoors without one. Seriously, if a mask lets me live life without constantly being freaked about covid, then YAY as far as I'm concerned. My face isn't all that great anyway, singing with a mask on forces me to project, I can layer with more fashionable looking ones and use it as a fashion accessory, and it hides the zits. Oh yeah, and way lessens my ability to get long covid.
I concur that people are getting it when they are slipping, more than the "I talked to the mail carrier" sort of example. I'm still shocked that I didn't get it on my biggest slip day of all time, when a fourth of the people there got covid and I didn't mask all day because even I gave up. But I can't count on that forever.
posted by jenfullmoon at 10:20 AM on July 9, 2022 [5 favorites]
Outside: mostly not masking while outside since I pretty much don't hear any stories of anyone catching it from outside activities. I will mask up if I'm near a bunch of people being still. I masked up sitting down in an audience last night and will again tonight at an outdoor theater show.
Inside: I have a mask on indoors if people are around, period, except for indoor food consumption. I'm really nervous about that last one and it is NOT GOOD that I do that (I bolt down the food and mask up again), but frankly, I'm not always able to talk people into outdoor dining any more or it's not an option anymore, sometimes you have to do certain activities in restaurants and it's not socially acceptable to not pay for food to be there, etc. That's my high level of danger right now. I'm going back to theater again and I will keep my mask on the entire time even if nobody else is. At this point even my theater (which had the best safety practices) is giving up--almost the entire cast of the last show got it but they are still making it "optional" to mask during rehearsal EVEN THOUGH OBVIOUSLY THAT IS WHERE EVERYONE GOT IT, which is ridiculous. We have to home test twice a week, which is gonna be expensive even after you get every free test (26 tests for the entire time, I did the math) you are eligible to get. I paid nearly $100 on Amazon to make up for the remaining 10 I'd have to get, I hope my HMO reimburses that, but I would bet money they make up some excuse not to because I didn't get them at a pharmacy or whatever.
Masks are a bit inconvenient to me (mostly because I gave up glasses-wearing due to them and now I just wander around nearsighted) but I'd rather have one on and then live my life not worrying about it when I go to shows and festivals than going free faced every day and wondering when I'm going to get it due to my own stupidity. I note that like Scalzi, a friend's parent got it recently from going shopping indoors without one. Seriously, if a mask lets me live life without constantly being freaked about covid, then YAY as far as I'm concerned. My face isn't all that great anyway, singing with a mask on forces me to project, I can layer with more fashionable looking ones and use it as a fashion accessory, and it hides the zits. Oh yeah, and way lessens my ability to get long covid.
I concur that people are getting it when they are slipping, more than the "I talked to the mail carrier" sort of example. I'm still shocked that I didn't get it on my biggest slip day of all time, when a fourth of the people there got covid and I didn't mask all day because even I gave up. But I can't count on that forever.
posted by jenfullmoon at 10:20 AM on July 9, 2022 [5 favorites]
Yesterday I looked up my state's CDC stats for the first time in well over a year and was surprised to see that February 2022 positives/hospitalizations/deaths were much higher than February 2021 (which was right about the time that vaccines started to become available to 60+). So the relaxation of mask requirements really had a detrimental effect.
I still wear a mask in stores, in the airport and on the plane--definitely in the minority; no issues-- but not in friends' homes. Double boosted (CVS wouldn't do it but the pharmacy in my local supermarket was more than happy).
posted by TWinbrook8 at 10:20 AM on July 9, 2022 [2 favorites]
I still wear a mask in stores, in the airport and on the plane--definitely in the minority; no issues-- but not in friends' homes. Double boosted (CVS wouldn't do it but the pharmacy in my local supermarket was more than happy).
posted by TWinbrook8 at 10:20 AM on July 9, 2022 [2 favorites]
It's a highly-contagious respiratory disease in world-wide circulation. I genuinely can't think of a way to collectively decide to "end it" aside from some kind of fantasy complete worldwide lockdown with 100% compliance.
We can make things better (like getting more people vaccinated, increasing use of masks, etc.), but none of that is going to make it "end." Maybe there will be a new vaccine or treatment that conclusively ends it at some point in the future, but nothing available in the near term would do that.
This is much more of a "learn to live with it" situation, unfortunately. (And, also unfortunately, the way we are doing that in the US means that we are going to continue to have higher hospitalizations and higher deaths than many other places.)
I really hate that covid hawks can't seem to grasp this, or refuse to grasp it, and my worry is that it contributes to the politicization of the science. Whether the intentions are good or bad, it really doesn't help. For a pandemic of this seriousness, perpetual masking was never in the cards. That's just the reality of people. And I'm not one who even has a problem with masking, having done it continuously since the beginning, as a non-isolating "essential worker". There was probably never any real possibility of eradication, regardless of how widely adopted masking and isolation were. And radical masking/isolation protocols will not be adopted unless people start dropping on sidewalks, or maybe if it specifically targets children.
posted by 2N2222 at 10:30 AM on July 9, 2022 [5 favorites]
We can make things better (like getting more people vaccinated, increasing use of masks, etc.), but none of that is going to make it "end." Maybe there will be a new vaccine or treatment that conclusively ends it at some point in the future, but nothing available in the near term would do that.
This is much more of a "learn to live with it" situation, unfortunately. (And, also unfortunately, the way we are doing that in the US means that we are going to continue to have higher hospitalizations and higher deaths than many other places.)
I really hate that covid hawks can't seem to grasp this, or refuse to grasp it, and my worry is that it contributes to the politicization of the science. Whether the intentions are good or bad, it really doesn't help. For a pandemic of this seriousness, perpetual masking was never in the cards. That's just the reality of people. And I'm not one who even has a problem with masking, having done it continuously since the beginning, as a non-isolating "essential worker". There was probably never any real possibility of eradication, regardless of how widely adopted masking and isolation were. And radical masking/isolation protocols will not be adopted unless people start dropping on sidewalks, or maybe if it specifically targets children.
posted by 2N2222 at 10:30 AM on July 9, 2022 [5 favorites]
As a healthcare worker who wears a surgical mask 40+ hours a week and N95 when I have a covid+ patient, I have very little patience with most people’s mask fatigue. Obviously there are legitimate reasons to have issues (skin health, sensory problems, baseline respiratory difficulty) and it makes some things harder (though I climb 30-40 flights of stairs daily wearing my mask at work, but the idea of going for a run in one is absurd). But I don’t think most people done with masks are done because of material harm to themselves - they’ve just decided to be done with masks.
posted by obfuscation at 10:33 AM on July 9, 2022 [100 favorites]
posted by obfuscation at 10:33 AM on July 9, 2022 [100 favorites]
I think people just want to go back to normal and trying to forget about this and that's why the mask hate. I'm with obfuscation on not having much sympathy for mask fatigue either, though. Literally if it keeps you from getting sick, why is that not worth it over all the other issues?
And radical masking/isolation protocols will not be adopted unless people start dropping on sidewalks, or maybe if it specifically targets children.
(a) Just you wait, those two may happen :(
(b) Frankly, not even then. Everyone has given up.
posted by jenfullmoon at 10:41 AM on July 9, 2022 [7 favorites]
And radical masking/isolation protocols will not be adopted unless people start dropping on sidewalks, or maybe if it specifically targets children.
(a) Just you wait, those two may happen :(
(b) Frankly, not even then. Everyone has given up.
posted by jenfullmoon at 10:41 AM on July 9, 2022 [7 favorites]
I disagree that the CDC is actively trying to spread the virus. That mindset seems like an example of horseshoe theory where the far left and right both think that CDC is up to no good.
posted by lumpy at 10:52 AM on July 9, 2022 [12 favorites]
posted by lumpy at 10:52 AM on July 9, 2022 [12 favorites]
There was probably never any real possibility of eradication
Thanks to right-wing extremism, we will never know if that was really true, and nothing will change about that now-widespread attitude for the next epidemic. As a for-instance: Conservatives and the mainstream media have already groomed everyone to treat community spread of monkeypox as a "gay" or "MSM" disease. There are practically no plans for testing or treatment, outside of some chronically-underfunded city public health departments that are taking it seriously, and so there seems to be a coordinated plan to both shrug shoulders and distract a bigoted population with a readymade scapegoat.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 10:57 AM on July 9, 2022 [18 favorites]
Thanks to right-wing extremism, we will never know if that was really true, and nothing will change about that now-widespread attitude for the next epidemic. As a for-instance: Conservatives and the mainstream media have already groomed everyone to treat community spread of monkeypox as a "gay" or "MSM" disease. There are practically no plans for testing or treatment, outside of some chronically-underfunded city public health departments that are taking it seriously, and so there seems to be a coordinated plan to both shrug shoulders and distract a bigoted population with a readymade scapegoat.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 10:57 AM on July 9, 2022 [18 favorites]
Thanks to right-wing extremism, we will never know if that was really true, and nothing will change about that now-widespread attitude for the next epidemic
Right-wing extremism certainly doesn't help but neither right-wing extremism or antivax or antimask ideology are responsible for the endemic state of the virus. It is a global pandemic and the Global North never had any serious interest in ensuring universal global access to vaccines--politicians in wealthy countries, including center-left politicians, calculated that preferential access to vaccines for their own populations was politically more important than global vaccine equity. Even access to masks (especially N95-grade masks) is enormously variable across countries. Given this reality, there were two possible options--a Chinese-style zero covid policy with enormously onerous travel restrictions, or accepting that the disease would become endemic. It is not clear to me that the zero covid option is less right-wing, since it precludes things like, I dunno, accepting refugees and immigrants who may not have the ability to undergo multiple PCR tests spread over weeks prior to entry.
posted by derrinyet at 11:09 AM on July 9, 2022 [18 favorites]
Right-wing extremism certainly doesn't help but neither right-wing extremism or antivax or antimask ideology are responsible for the endemic state of the virus. It is a global pandemic and the Global North never had any serious interest in ensuring universal global access to vaccines--politicians in wealthy countries, including center-left politicians, calculated that preferential access to vaccines for their own populations was politically more important than global vaccine equity. Even access to masks (especially N95-grade masks) is enormously variable across countries. Given this reality, there were two possible options--a Chinese-style zero covid policy with enormously onerous travel restrictions, or accepting that the disease would become endemic. It is not clear to me that the zero covid option is less right-wing, since it precludes things like, I dunno, accepting refugees and immigrants who may not have the ability to undergo multiple PCR tests spread over weeks prior to entry.
posted by derrinyet at 11:09 AM on July 9, 2022 [18 favorites]
Bottlecap, I wear a 3M half-mask like the one you describe at work for work-related things, but while it filters my air coming in, it does not filter my air going out. Is that true with the ones you are talking about? COVID-wise, wouldn't one want a mask that filters both ways?
posted by acrasis at 11:09 AM on July 9, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by acrasis at 11:09 AM on July 9, 2022 [3 favorites]
I believe while early in the pandemic there was concern about elastomeric respirators generally not having filtered exhaust, masks that've been coming out since then have been much more likely to avoid vented/unfiltered designs (for exactly that reason).
That said, it's important to confirm that, so it's a good detail to pay attention to.
posted by CrystalDave at 11:15 AM on July 9, 2022 [4 favorites]
That said, it's important to confirm that, so it's a good detail to pay attention to.
posted by CrystalDave at 11:15 AM on July 9, 2022 [4 favorites]
The conversation keeps going around the whole thing about masking and just like anything else that requires what is essentially consumer action (like recycling). Eventually we get circling around valid edge cases providing cover for simple psychological fatigue or outright refusal. i would like instead the energy to go into a whole slate of civic action like outlined in the comment above about better working conditions, improving paxlovid supply.
But really, in terms of actions with multiplier effect, just like vaccination but probably even more magnified for the unit of actors who have to commit effort to do I'm just going to repeat this entire comment:
Upper room UVGI and high speed HVAC air changeover is how we stop most transmission. These are things that can be mandated by government fiat and do not require stupid people to do things they don’t believe in, like mask or vaccine. Just make it a requirement for a business occupancy permit. And done.
Write your politician. Make a big deal about it.
posted by seanmpuckett at 9:01 AM on July 9
Where is this energy that seemed to be present during the Spanish flu era if architectural artifacts are to be believed (e.g. floor vents; radiators under windows to induce opening them)?
posted by cendawanita at 11:17 AM on July 9, 2022 [20 favorites]
But really, in terms of actions with multiplier effect, just like vaccination but probably even more magnified for the unit of actors who have to commit effort to do I'm just going to repeat this entire comment:
Upper room UVGI and high speed HVAC air changeover is how we stop most transmission. These are things that can be mandated by government fiat and do not require stupid people to do things they don’t believe in, like mask or vaccine. Just make it a requirement for a business occupancy permit. And done.
Write your politician. Make a big deal about it.
posted by seanmpuckett at 9:01 AM on July 9
Where is this energy that seemed to be present during the Spanish flu era if architectural artifacts are to be believed (e.g. floor vents; radiators under windows to induce opening them)?
posted by cendawanita at 11:17 AM on July 9, 2022 [20 favorites]
Bottlecap, I wear a 3M half-mask like the one you describe at work for work-related things, but while it filters my air coming in, it does not filter my air going out. Is that true with the ones you are talking about?
The one linked upthread does not have an exhaust port, so yes.
posted by zug at 11:17 AM on July 9, 2022 [2 favorites]
The one linked upthread does not have an exhaust port, so yes.
posted by zug at 11:17 AM on July 9, 2022 [2 favorites]
COVID-wise, wouldn't one want a mask that filters both ways?
I've been thinking about getting one of those for the fall semester and have almost decided that I no longer give a shit about trying to protect other people who aren't making any attempt whatsoever to protect themselves.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 11:46 AM on July 9, 2022 [3 favorites]
I've been thinking about getting one of those for the fall semester and have almost decided that I no longer give a shit about trying to protect other people who aren't making any attempt whatsoever to protect themselves.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 11:46 AM on July 9, 2022 [3 favorites]
Its time to talk about the 800 lb sanitary gorilla at the door breathing down upon us: Public Space Building Code Ventilation Standards.
Its currently no different than pre-covid days. Which means if the HVAC turns over the indoor airspace of your office, classroom, Trader Joes etc 2 or 3 times AN HOUR, its compliant. What the age of CoVidcalls for is mor like 8-10 times an hour, which dramatically reduces rates of infection for not just that damn bat virus, but also Flus, RSV and "common" colds (and renders your co-worker's tuna fish sandwich more tolerable.)
900 foot Duh!
posted by Fupped Duck at 11:51 AM on July 9, 2022 [35 favorites]
Its currently no different than pre-covid days. Which means if the HVAC turns over the indoor airspace of your office, classroom, Trader Joes etc 2 or 3 times AN HOUR, its compliant. What the age of CoVidcalls for is mor like 8-10 times an hour, which dramatically reduces rates of infection for not just that damn bat virus, but also Flus, RSV and "common" colds (and renders your co-worker's tuna fish sandwich more tolerable.)
900 foot Duh!
posted by Fupped Duck at 11:51 AM on July 9, 2022 [35 favorites]
This is much more of a "learn to live with it" situation
Some of that living will involve long COVID at scale. Millions of people in the US, perhaps tens of millions, suffering from tissue damage and/or pains and/or brainfog and more, and worse. Each bout of infection can weaken us for the next. How many worldwide will live with long COVID - a hundred million? More?
Think of the human suffering this means, from physical pain to careers cut short to early deaths. Think, too, of the additional stress added to already beaten-down medical care systems.
Live with it: for the badly compromised (immunocompromised, those with the most vulnerable comorbidities) it means living forever with anti-COVID protocols, or just in seclusion unto death.
I don't think most of us have really thought this through.
posted by doctornemo at 11:55 AM on July 9, 2022 [51 favorites]
Some of that living will involve long COVID at scale. Millions of people in the US, perhaps tens of millions, suffering from tissue damage and/or pains and/or brainfog and more, and worse. Each bout of infection can weaken us for the next. How many worldwide will live with long COVID - a hundred million? More?
Think of the human suffering this means, from physical pain to careers cut short to early deaths. Think, too, of the additional stress added to already beaten-down medical care systems.
Live with it: for the badly compromised (immunocompromised, those with the most vulnerable comorbidities) it means living forever with anti-COVID protocols, or just in seclusion unto death.
I don't think most of us have really thought this through.
posted by doctornemo at 11:55 AM on July 9, 2022 [51 favorites]
Biden's merely half-assed response
I think the problem was misunderstanding what the Biden campaign promised in 2020. They said they would follow the science. We thought that meant epidemiological science, but they really meant political science.
posted by doctornemo at 11:56 AM on July 9, 2022 [9 favorites]
I think the problem was misunderstanding what the Biden campaign promised in 2020. They said they would follow the science. We thought that meant epidemiological science, but they really meant political science.
posted by doctornemo at 11:56 AM on July 9, 2022 [9 favorites]
It is a global pandemic and the Global North never had any serious interest in ensuring universal global access to vaccines--politicians in wealthy countries, including center-left politicians, calculated that preferential access to vaccines for their own populations was politically more important than global vaccine equity. Even access to masks (especially N95-grade masks) is enormously variable across countries.
Yes. Thank you. It's kind of surreal to read all this advice about what kind of mask to wear, when we simply can't buy anything other than fake n95, cloth, or surgical masks. And knowing that we'll be waiting for a very long time for vaccines that target the newer variants.
Even without the anti vaxxers, you guys would still be stuck in the pandemic along with the rest of us, because so many of you don't believe we really exist.
posted by Zumbador at 12:42 PM on July 9, 2022 [29 favorites]
Yes. Thank you. It's kind of surreal to read all this advice about what kind of mask to wear, when we simply can't buy anything other than fake n95, cloth, or surgical masks. And knowing that we'll be waiting for a very long time for vaccines that target the newer variants.
Even without the anti vaxxers, you guys would still be stuck in the pandemic along with the rest of us, because so many of you don't believe we really exist.
posted by Zumbador at 12:42 PM on July 9, 2022 [29 favorites]
Too many people view routine disease mitigation (making, distancing, just the basics) as if it's not just an inconvenience but a full-fledged punishment, a vindictive act on the part of governments and stores and venues. Even if you don't believe that Joe Biden and Dr. Fauci and your governor hate you and your defiance and your freedoms and you specifically and are lashing out at you as part of a master plan to crush your spirit and (citation needed) and turn America into a dictatorship, you may stare at a "mask required" sign and grumble as if you're being picked on and punished for some imagined slight.
Hence why I vehemently opposed the removal of widespread mandates last year, even while they were being couched as some sort of vaccination carrot (get vaxxed, no mask!). They phrased it as something like "now that risks are a bit lower, we can relax precautions and put them back when we need to."
No. No, you can't. Once you take your foot off of the "this is a necessity for public health" landmine, it explodes and you're never ever putting it back into play. Not in America, anyway.
posted by delfin at 12:47 PM on July 9, 2022 [24 favorites]
Hence why I vehemently opposed the removal of widespread mandates last year, even while they were being couched as some sort of vaccination carrot (get vaxxed, no mask!). They phrased it as something like "now that risks are a bit lower, we can relax precautions and put them back when we need to."
No. No, you can't. Once you take your foot off of the "this is a necessity for public health" landmine, it explodes and you're never ever putting it back into play. Not in America, anyway.
posted by delfin at 12:47 PM on July 9, 2022 [24 favorites]
Also I like the way my face looks, so I hated having to keep it covered up.
Yo all I could say here is just wooooooooowwwwwwwwww. Like a million times, woooooooooooowwwwwwww.
posted by erattacorrige at 12:56 PM on July 9, 2022 [78 favorites]
Yo all I could say here is just wooooooooowwwwwwwwww. Like a million times, woooooooooooowwwwwwww.
posted by erattacorrige at 12:56 PM on July 9, 2022 [78 favorites]
Yeah, I really hope that (i.e the "I like my face" comment) was meant as a joke.
posted by Greg_Ace at 1:02 PM on July 9, 2022 [13 favorites]
posted by Greg_Ace at 1:02 PM on July 9, 2022 [13 favorites]
If you're too good to mask at this point the least you can do is admit you're contributing to this thing being around forever because that's what you want. You don't get to act like you don't want this AND not participate in ending it. It's hypocritical. And don't say sorry either, or act like not caring is a ticket out of humanity. There is no such thing. You're just keeping a bad situation worse forever. When people start masking, the numbers come down. When they stop, the numbers go up. Accept it.
posted by bleep at 1:37 PM on July 9, 2022 [30 favorites]
posted by bleep at 1:37 PM on July 9, 2022 [30 favorites]
Perpetual masking didn't HAVE to be in the cards, but since you all decided to be babies about it, now we have to be doing it much longer than we would have otherwise. But the fact remains that it's the only mitigation we have left. Nobody wanted to be here, but because of the tantrums, the fights, and the threats, here we are. You don't dislike masks more than anyone else. You're not more uncomfortable than everyone else. Literally everyone hates this. Let's look for a way out.
posted by bleep at 1:41 PM on July 9, 2022 [15 favorites]
posted by bleep at 1:41 PM on July 9, 2022 [15 favorites]
I say it's the only mitigation we have left because we've been abandoned by power and they'd be happy to watch us all wither away. But we can fight back by limiting the spread of disease with our own behavior. Diseases stop when we limit their spread. We have tons of evidence of this.
posted by bleep at 1:42 PM on July 9, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by bleep at 1:42 PM on July 9, 2022 [4 favorites]
Bottlecap, I wear a 3M half-mask like the one you describe at work for work-related things, but while it filters my air coming in, it does not filter my air going out. Is that true with the ones you are talking about? COVID-wise, wouldn't one want a mask that filters both ways?
“The findings in this report are based on tests of 13 FFR models from 10 different manufacturers. These findings show that FFRs with an exhalation valve provide respiratory protection to the wearer and can also reduce particle emissions to levels similar to or better than those provided by surgical masks, procedure masks, or cloth face coverings.”
Early guidance was no on valves, but subsequent research has shown that they’re just as good as a surgical mask. That’s good enough for me. If everyone else is fine wearing low efficiency masks, I figure I don’t need to do better than average, *especially* since I have a much lower than average chance of catching Covid because of better masking.
posted by Bottlecap at 1:45 PM on July 9, 2022 [7 favorites]
“The findings in this report are based on tests of 13 FFR models from 10 different manufacturers. These findings show that FFRs with an exhalation valve provide respiratory protection to the wearer and can also reduce particle emissions to levels similar to or better than those provided by surgical masks, procedure masks, or cloth face coverings.”
Early guidance was no on valves, but subsequent research has shown that they’re just as good as a surgical mask. That’s good enough for me. If everyone else is fine wearing low efficiency masks, I figure I don’t need to do better than average, *especially* since I have a much lower than average chance of catching Covid because of better masking.
posted by Bottlecap at 1:45 PM on July 9, 2022 [7 favorites]
Where is this energy that seemed to be present during the Spanish flu era if architectural artifacts are to be believed (e.g. floor vents; radiators under windows to induce opening them)?
This is a great question, and it's notable how little impact this pandemic is having on our built environment. It's worth noting that much of the public health ventilation-related building code changes that were made in the past came out of concerns about tuberculosis over quite a few decades, rather than just the few years of the Spanish flu. But building code changes for tuberculosis were mostly, to my understanding, focused on multi-family residential units, while the Spanish flu led to changes in schools, offices, etc.
posted by Dip Flash at 2:05 PM on July 9, 2022 [11 favorites]
This is a great question, and it's notable how little impact this pandemic is having on our built environment. It's worth noting that much of the public health ventilation-related building code changes that were made in the past came out of concerns about tuberculosis over quite a few decades, rather than just the few years of the Spanish flu. But building code changes for tuberculosis were mostly, to my understanding, focused on multi-family residential units, while the Spanish flu led to changes in schools, offices, etc.
posted by Dip Flash at 2:05 PM on July 9, 2022 [11 favorites]
Ok I caught my breath after it was snatched by that remark. Using the CVS app, I was able to sign up for a 2nd Pfizer booster shot, no problem, back in March at aged 32. Partner and I recently signed up for our first moderna vaccine on the rite aid website without issue, too, which we got in June. The rite aid guy seemed suspicious of us that we'd not yet been vaccinated but we also technically did not lie, we just said it would be our first moderna vaccine. Side effects of the 4th Pfizer shot (2nd booster) were non-existent for me. Side effects of moderna vaccine #1 minimal as well; my arm hurt a bunch and had a dark, spooky bruise for awhile but that's all. Otherwise... So far?... I have yet to contract COVID. At the sign of a single sniffle we have tested ourselves, and neither of us have ever tested positive. We're not sure what the likelihood could be of *both* of us being COVID-positive AND asymptomatic, so heck, while we've masked up everywhere continuously (sometimes stacking two n95 masks on top of each other when we've flown, for instance) and tested ourselves every few weeks and are obviously beyond vaccinated, we're still not sure if we've ever caught COVID. This all being said... And obviously this is not expert advice... It was really, really easy to get additional boosters and even other vaccine types and it doesn't seem unscrupulous to get these, provided your community is highly vaccinated and there are ample vaccine supplies available. Also, please continue to mask. The prettiest faces are the living ones.
posted by erattacorrige at 2:45 PM on July 9, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by erattacorrige at 2:45 PM on July 9, 2022 [2 favorites]
It probably depends on the location/people involved as to who's going to let you slide on a fourth shot.
I note that my work will make me get it documented every time I get a shot and that's about the only reason I haven't tried--I don't want to get In Trouble once they require #4 and oops, I got it months ago in a divey fudge-y sort of way.
posted by jenfullmoon at 2:53 PM on July 9, 2022
I note that my work will make me get it documented every time I get a shot and that's about the only reason I haven't tried--I don't want to get In Trouble once they require #4 and oops, I got it months ago in a divey fudge-y sort of way.
posted by jenfullmoon at 2:53 PM on July 9, 2022
But...like...isn't it still "the right thing to do?" If not - why not? Because restrictions were lifted?
posted by tiny frying pan at 3:01 PM on July 9, 2022 [30 favorites]
posted by tiny frying pan at 3:01 PM on July 9, 2022 [30 favorites]
If you’ve had J&J it basically doesn’t count anymore and you can get another shot.
posted by Artw at 3:03 PM on July 9, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by Artw at 3:03 PM on July 9, 2022 [3 favorites]
I guess I'm lucky that my stable sense of personhood/self isn't reliant on other people seeing me. I have been seriously overjoyed hearing the projected statistics around the number of lives saved by the mask mandates and vaccine initiatives. I truly do feel very lucky. Take good care everyone - and buckle up, viral pandemics won't be going anywhere anytime fast (except for spreading communicably, that is).
posted by erattacorrige at 3:33 PM on July 9, 2022 [11 favorites]
posted by erattacorrige at 3:33 PM on July 9, 2022 [11 favorites]
I mean, I enjoy people looking at me as well, mostly from their subsequent grimaces and cringing as I do my best Vincent Price impression. "LOOK at ME! LOOK at my FACE! I am not an animal! I am human, as you are! How dare you, Sir!"
...Maybe I _should_ stay masked.
posted by delfin at 3:39 PM on July 9, 2022 [9 favorites]
...Maybe I _should_ stay masked.
posted by delfin at 3:39 PM on July 9, 2022 [9 favorites]
So we're all in agreement that this shit causes long term damage to many people's health, right?
I hope every adult who is comfortable spreading this shit to other people understands exactly how messed up that is.
If you don't care enough about your community to wear a mask, I wonder if you care about your/other people's children? What the fuck are we all going to say when our kids suffer the inevitable health consequences of people not wearing masks because they think they're too cute??!?
If you can afford to buy masks you should be wearing them. Unless you don't care about your community or your children as much as you care about looking cute.
posted by RobinofFrocksley at 3:56 PM on July 9, 2022 [39 favorites]
I hope every adult who is comfortable spreading this shit to other people understands exactly how messed up that is.
If you don't care enough about your community to wear a mask, I wonder if you care about your/other people's children? What the fuck are we all going to say when our kids suffer the inevitable health consequences of people not wearing masks because they think they're too cute??!?
If you can afford to buy masks you should be wearing them. Unless you don't care about your community or your children as much as you care about looking cute.
posted by RobinofFrocksley at 3:56 PM on July 9, 2022 [39 favorites]
Learn to emote better with your eyes.
posted by porpoise at 4:21 PM on July 9, 2022 [9 favorites]
posted by porpoise at 4:21 PM on July 9, 2022 [9 favorites]
I've figured that "selfishness" is the only thing that shifts human behaviour. Selfishly, I don't want COVID so I'm masking most places.
But selfishly, also, I want human connection, so I'm weighing the risks and not masking in some spaces. I want to call out the attacks up thread. It's not fair, wanting human connection without masks is a really reasonable want. Yes, we know masks work. Masks aren't perfect (covid-wise) and they do have downsides.
The political thing has really poisoned this, too.
posted by freethefeet at 4:33 PM on July 9, 2022 [10 favorites]
But selfishly, also, I want human connection, so I'm weighing the risks and not masking in some spaces. I want to call out the attacks up thread. It's not fair, wanting human connection without masks is a really reasonable want. Yes, we know masks work. Masks aren't perfect (covid-wise) and they do have downsides.
The political thing has really poisoned this, too.
posted by freethefeet at 4:33 PM on July 9, 2022 [10 favorites]
Speaking of eyes, there is still a risk of contracting it if virus contacts your ocular mucosa.
Less so than through nasal mucosa (in part due to cell surface receptor requirements for the virus to enter a cell - but there are variants that get into cells directly, hence the slight differences in manifestation between variants), and the putative route is possibly because the eyes are connected to your respiratory tract.
(like, you can taste some eyedrops at the back of your throat after dripping it into your eye)
posted by porpoise at 4:33 PM on July 9, 2022 [3 favorites]
Less so than through nasal mucosa (in part due to cell surface receptor requirements for the virus to enter a cell - but there are variants that get into cells directly, hence the slight differences in manifestation between variants), and the putative route is possibly because the eyes are connected to your respiratory tract.
(like, you can taste some eyedrops at the back of your throat after dripping it into your eye)
posted by porpoise at 4:33 PM on July 9, 2022 [3 favorites]
I don’t think it serves us to be mean and dismissive of people who share the reasons that they don’t want to mask. It’s valuable information and any path through this damned mess involves compassion for people’s different needs. Desiring to be seen is a good reason for us to install architectural changes, because I think it’s quite a bit more common than people are willing to admit. People LIKE looking cute and they like getting positive attention. Being rude about pretty normal desires is divisive. Let’s all push in the same direction - away from individual solutions and towards public health solutions. I am extremely grateful to people who are willing to be candid about why they resist masking. Demanding safer conditions for everyone is something we can all do together.
posted by Bottlecap at 4:49 PM on July 9, 2022 [65 favorites]
posted by Bottlecap at 4:49 PM on July 9, 2022 [65 favorites]
Yesterday I looked up my state's CDC stats for the first time in well over a year and was surprised to see that February 2022 positives/hospitalizations/deaths were much higher than February 2021 (which was right about the time that vaccines started to become available to 60+). So the relaxation of mask requirements really had a detrimental effect.
The rise of the Omicron variant lineage likely accounts for a larger share of this difference.
posted by atoxyl at 5:01 PM on July 9, 2022 [6 favorites]
The rise of the Omicron variant lineage likely accounts for a larger share of this difference.
posted by atoxyl at 5:01 PM on July 9, 2022 [6 favorites]
Further to Bottlecap's comment, I agree that demonizing people for explaining why they don't like to wear masks all the time is misguided. I also don't think most people fall within a rigid masker/anti-masker dichotomy.
I suspect there are many people, like me, who continue to follow CDC guidelines. Which means that I wear a mask when it's recommended and usually do not wear a mask when it is not recommended. I disagree that there is a moral imperative to disregard CDC guidelines and mask at all times, and I also disagree that people who are not all-mask, all-the-time are necessarily selfish or callous.
posted by lumpy at 5:08 PM on July 9, 2022 [14 favorites]
I suspect there are many people, like me, who continue to follow CDC guidelines. Which means that I wear a mask when it's recommended and usually do not wear a mask when it is not recommended. I disagree that there is a moral imperative to disregard CDC guidelines and mask at all times, and I also disagree that people who are not all-mask, all-the-time are necessarily selfish or callous.
posted by lumpy at 5:08 PM on July 9, 2022 [14 favorites]
Bottlecap, I have to thank you for so frequently looking for ways to bring light and oxygen into difficult conversations. That's a real need here (and everywhere, really) and it's something I need to emulate more.
I guess where I'm struggling is that people so often bring up the importance of mental health and the need for connection, which I absolutely agree with, but then when doing so they clearly only mean themselves. Where are their passionate arguments on behalf of those of us who have been stuck indoors for two years and are, by this point, maybe not doing entirely okay?
Those of us who are more at risk are at the absolute mercy of everyone else, and everyone else is notoriously bad at assessing their own risk. As a result, I can't do the simplest thing -- sit in the little coffee shop down the block and sip a latte for ten minutes, not even once in two years -- because someone else needs to go maskless on a plane to feel "connected."
It's increasingly difficult to be sympathetic in supporting everyone else's endless completion of desires when so many of us, although outliers, haven't been able to do anything at all.
posted by mochapickle at 5:23 PM on July 9, 2022 [82 favorites]
I guess where I'm struggling is that people so often bring up the importance of mental health and the need for connection, which I absolutely agree with, but then when doing so they clearly only mean themselves. Where are their passionate arguments on behalf of those of us who have been stuck indoors for two years and are, by this point, maybe not doing entirely okay?
Those of us who are more at risk are at the absolute mercy of everyone else, and everyone else is notoriously bad at assessing their own risk. As a result, I can't do the simplest thing -- sit in the little coffee shop down the block and sip a latte for ten minutes, not even once in two years -- because someone else needs to go maskless on a plane to feel "connected."
It's increasingly difficult to be sympathetic in supporting everyone else's endless completion of desires when so many of us, although outliers, haven't been able to do anything at all.
posted by mochapickle at 5:23 PM on July 9, 2022 [82 favorites]
This feels almost too obvious to say but as as far as factors in people generally letting their guard down about the virus I don’t think one should underestimate the significance of the fact that the majority of people have had it. That does not, of course, preclude getting it again, but it does make people feel like they probably won’t get it again for a little while, and if they didn’t get too sick the first time they’re often not so scared of it anymore either.
posted by atoxyl at 5:24 PM on July 9, 2022 [6 favorites]
posted by atoxyl at 5:24 PM on July 9, 2022 [6 favorites]
You can get a new case of Omicron within a few weeks of recovery from the previous case.
posted by octothorpe at 5:44 PM on July 9, 2022 [8 favorites]
posted by octothorpe at 5:44 PM on July 9, 2022 [8 favorites]
We have been masking since March of 2020, and it’s possible that we will be masking for years to come. We have both had four shots and plan to get the next one as soon as it’s available. However, we have not seen our family, who all live in another state, since December of 2019, and we are basically living in fear. I hate this timeline, and I am NOT ok.
posted by blurker at 5:54 PM on July 9, 2022 [14 favorites]
posted by blurker at 5:54 PM on July 9, 2022 [14 favorites]
It’s not so much a moral imperative so much as I don’t want to get COVID and thanks to the CDC I can’t trust any of you fuckers.
posted by Artw at 6:01 PM on July 9, 2022 [47 favorites]
posted by Artw at 6:01 PM on July 9, 2022 [47 favorites]
Yeah. Returning to the actual link in the FPP - the problem is that the new omicron doesn’t care about the last time you got infected. And the risk of long covid is cumulative. And the only place I’ve been in two fucking years is to the ER and the doctors’ office.
I do think that the impact of having caught it already is quite large psychologically. How do you not give up when the thing has already happened… hard to keep focused on avoiding something that’s already come to pass. That’s a lot of existentials to face and digest.
Thank you, mochapickle. Being home alone for two plus years sure has given me a lot of time to think about how I enter conversations. Sure would love to do that in person *ever again* but hey! Online is where it’s at right now. Gotta take care of our spaces.
posted by Bottlecap at 6:07 PM on July 9, 2022 [21 favorites]
I do think that the impact of having caught it already is quite large psychologically. How do you not give up when the thing has already happened… hard to keep focused on avoiding something that’s already come to pass. That’s a lot of existentials to face and digest.
Thank you, mochapickle. Being home alone for two plus years sure has given me a lot of time to think about how I enter conversations. Sure would love to do that in person *ever again* but hey! Online is where it’s at right now. Gotta take care of our spaces.
posted by Bottlecap at 6:07 PM on July 9, 2022 [21 favorites]
I am curious to where most of you live where you can even have the time to be bothered about people not wearing a mask. In places near me that used to be 100% masked, now are around 75% and continually dropping. When I go to the suburbs to visit my parents, it's probably less than 25% if it's just not me. At this point I can't even muster an eye-roll, or else my eyes would have rolled out of my sockets long ago.
posted by meowzilla at 6:26 PM on July 9, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by meowzilla at 6:26 PM on July 9, 2022 [1 favorite]
“That does not, of course, preclude getting it again, but it does make people feel like they probably won’t get it again for a little while, and if they didn’t get too sick the first time they’re often not so scared of it anymore either.”
That's more than a little bit a false confidence, though. The factors which determine virulency are many and complicated, but there's no guarantee that a new variant won't both escape immunity and be quite virulent. BA.5 is clearly extremely transmissible, escapes immunity, and is more virulent than the first omicron — we just don't know how much more. And surely this increased virulence correlates with long covid.
My sister is recovering her second bout of covid — both infections occurred after she was fully vaccinated and doubly-boosted. Both have been moderately bad, though not requiring hospitalization.
Also, I'm of the opinion that mitigation measures select against virulency; now that there's very little mitigation, new variants can get away with being more virulent because even obviously symptomatic people are socializing without mitigation.
I agree with the opinion that there was no way the world could have prevented SARS-CoV-2 from becoming endemic once it became global. It was apparent early on that this infects domesticated and other animals and animal reservoirs were established. And once it was global, it was highly unlikely that human reservoirs in this globalized world wouldn't continue to exist, regardless.
That said, there's a difference between it becoming endemic and a recklessness that encourages the appearance and spread of new variants, especially more virulent ones. The latter wasn't and isn't inevitable — despite it being endemic, the world needs a lot of mitigation to avoid this.
This is still early days for a global pandemic, really. Especially this one. I don't doubt that eventually this will evolve toward being among the viruses we experience as the "common cold", but I don't understand why anyone thinks this will happen on a timescale less than decades. Before that happens, people will continue to die from this. And have long covid symptoms. It's still possible — and there's a moral imperative — to reduce that as much as we can.
I get that everyone wants this to go away. Most of us have wanted Trump to go away since 2016 and that septuagenarian fucker is still here. If we can't collectively wish away Donald Trump in six years, I don't think we're going to wish away a highly infectious global pandemic virus in three.
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 6:29 PM on July 9, 2022 [25 favorites]
That's more than a little bit a false confidence, though. The factors which determine virulency are many and complicated, but there's no guarantee that a new variant won't both escape immunity and be quite virulent. BA.5 is clearly extremely transmissible, escapes immunity, and is more virulent than the first omicron — we just don't know how much more. And surely this increased virulence correlates with long covid.
My sister is recovering her second bout of covid — both infections occurred after she was fully vaccinated and doubly-boosted. Both have been moderately bad, though not requiring hospitalization.
Also, I'm of the opinion that mitigation measures select against virulency; now that there's very little mitigation, new variants can get away with being more virulent because even obviously symptomatic people are socializing without mitigation.
I agree with the opinion that there was no way the world could have prevented SARS-CoV-2 from becoming endemic once it became global. It was apparent early on that this infects domesticated and other animals and animal reservoirs were established. And once it was global, it was highly unlikely that human reservoirs in this globalized world wouldn't continue to exist, regardless.
That said, there's a difference between it becoming endemic and a recklessness that encourages the appearance and spread of new variants, especially more virulent ones. The latter wasn't and isn't inevitable — despite it being endemic, the world needs a lot of mitigation to avoid this.
This is still early days for a global pandemic, really. Especially this one. I don't doubt that eventually this will evolve toward being among the viruses we experience as the "common cold", but I don't understand why anyone thinks this will happen on a timescale less than decades. Before that happens, people will continue to die from this. And have long covid symptoms. It's still possible — and there's a moral imperative — to reduce that as much as we can.
I get that everyone wants this to go away. Most of us have wanted Trump to go away since 2016 and that septuagenarian fucker is still here. If we can't collectively wish away Donald Trump in six years, I don't think we're going to wish away a highly infectious global pandemic virus in three.
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 6:29 PM on July 9, 2022 [25 favorites]
meowzilla, I'm in southern Colorado. I had to drop my car at the mechanic last week and not a single person was masked. The pharmacy? Haha, you'd think so but no. I had a series of infusion sessions at the hospital in June, and despite the SEVEN Masks Required signs I saw between the parking garage and the clinic itself, masks were not enforced.
The funny thing now is that around here when people see you're wearing a mask, they assume you're sick so they keep their distance. It's like magic.
posted by mochapickle at 6:50 PM on July 9, 2022 [12 favorites]
The funny thing now is that around here when people see you're wearing a mask, they assume you're sick so they keep their distance. It's like magic.
posted by mochapickle at 6:50 PM on July 9, 2022 [12 favorites]
After having COVID pre-vaccine, then being vaxed and double-boosted, i was feeling pretty safe until BA.5 showed up. It doesn't seem to care. I'm masking again, at least with indoor crowds.
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 7:04 PM on July 9, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 7:04 PM on July 9, 2022 [3 favorites]
CDC as bumbling to actively trying to help the virus spread
This. As a biologist with some training in disease ecology, I now think of the CDC as being compromised at the top levels.
This is exactly the sentiment anti-covid/anti-maskers said when they disagreed with information they did not like.
It wasn’t ok then, it’s not ok now.
posted by [insert clever name here] at 7:29 PM on July 9, 2022 [7 favorites]
This. As a biologist with some training in disease ecology, I now think of the CDC as being compromised at the top levels.
This is exactly the sentiment anti-covid/anti-maskers said when they disagreed with information they did not like.
It wasn’t ok then, it’s not ok now.
posted by [insert clever name here] at 7:29 PM on July 9, 2022 [7 favorites]
This is exactly the sentiment anti-covid/anti-maskers said when they disagreed with information they did not like.
That's certainly true if you elide some important details like the information they did not like.
posted by figurant at 7:34 PM on July 9, 2022 [12 favorites]
That's certainly true if you elide some important details like the information they did not like.
posted by figurant at 7:34 PM on July 9, 2022 [12 favorites]
The undermining of the CDC is not a theory, we now know that it occurred. See this story as an example. Here
posted by pdoege at 7:34 PM on July 9, 2022 [17 favorites]
posted by pdoege at 7:34 PM on July 9, 2022 [17 favorites]
What really astonishes me is the number of people who whine about inflation and can't seem to understand that there is a direct line between that and they're refusal to take any steps to mitigate the spread of COVID. The vast majority of the issue is caused by a lack of labor availability leading to wage increases and supply chain disruption. People who are dead can't work. People with long COVID are often somewhere between unable to work and unable to maintain normal productivity. People who catch COVID are often in no condition to work.
All this combines to mean more people with money trying to buy fewer goods that are actually available and not stuck on a ship or in a port somewhere. It leads to food either rotting in the fields or rotting in a container. It leads to there not being enough truckers to get stuff where it needs to go even when the goods exist and could in principle be moved. It leads to transportation costs many times what they were pre-COVID, which is of course reflected in higher prices. It leads to companies preemptively raising prices beyond what is necessary to cover increased cost both to provide a buffer because you never know in advance if you're going to be paying $10,000 to move a container from China or if you're going to be paying $40,000, even if you're a giant retailer with massive buying power. And when it usually ends up being lower than your worst case estimate, hey, that's a bigger profit margin!
None of this can be completely eliminated without massive changes to our built environment and public health infrastructure, but it can damn sure be reduced by us taking even the most minimal precautions on our own, like wearing a goddamned mask. Even if you don't personally give a shit if you spread COVID or even give a shit if you catch it, you are directly contributing to the material degradation of our collective economic situation and your personal economic situation. Wages are rising, but in most cases not enough to even match the overall rate of inflation in food, energy, and housing. Wearing a mask benefits you personally, even if it's a shitty mask and you're somehow immune from getting a bad case of COVID.
Be selfish. Put on a mask before going indoors.
posted by wierdo at 7:41 PM on July 9, 2022 [28 favorites]
All this combines to mean more people with money trying to buy fewer goods that are actually available and not stuck on a ship or in a port somewhere. It leads to food either rotting in the fields or rotting in a container. It leads to there not being enough truckers to get stuff where it needs to go even when the goods exist and could in principle be moved. It leads to transportation costs many times what they were pre-COVID, which is of course reflected in higher prices. It leads to companies preemptively raising prices beyond what is necessary to cover increased cost both to provide a buffer because you never know in advance if you're going to be paying $10,000 to move a container from China or if you're going to be paying $40,000, even if you're a giant retailer with massive buying power. And when it usually ends up being lower than your worst case estimate, hey, that's a bigger profit margin!
None of this can be completely eliminated without massive changes to our built environment and public health infrastructure, but it can damn sure be reduced by us taking even the most minimal precautions on our own, like wearing a goddamned mask. Even if you don't personally give a shit if you spread COVID or even give a shit if you catch it, you are directly contributing to the material degradation of our collective economic situation and your personal economic situation. Wages are rising, but in most cases not enough to even match the overall rate of inflation in food, energy, and housing. Wearing a mask benefits you personally, even if it's a shitty mask and you're somehow immune from getting a bad case of COVID.
Be selfish. Put on a mask before going indoors.
posted by wierdo at 7:41 PM on July 9, 2022 [28 favorites]
The “making a concerted effort” is the impossible part. The number of people who believe it’s over / don’t care / think it’s about their freedoms / are tired / etc outnumber the people who were willing to make that effort back when it had a chance of helping.
I am pulling this out because it’s not accurate. We now know how to treat covid, and the vaccines and prior infections mean as of right now, it’s less severe disease for the majority of people. That was my calculus, and as an asthmatic, I’m at higher risk.
The circumstances have changed. Is it gone? No. Is long covid still an issue? Yes. But so are anxiety, depression, loss of social bonds and all the things humans need to do to feel whole. I’m firmly convinced the isolation fragmented people and communities in a way that we’re seeing in everything from bad driving to mass shootings, car thefts to overdose deaths.
I came out of covid isolation with a major depression that hasn’t fully lifted. I was suicidal, and fought that urge every day. I can’t fully get out from the black cloud I’ve been under many months later, though it is getting better in fits and starts.
So yes, if what I need to do to protect my mental health is upsetting to anyone, I’m not going to worry too much. I got a life to piece back together and get living. But me in 2020 would probably not understand this either.
On that note, comments like this are making me think long and hard about how I thought about the covid deniers and anti maskers in the beginning. The circumstances seem different to me, but boy I have some thinking to do on perspective and assumptions.
posted by [insert clever name here] at 7:49 PM on July 9, 2022 [20 favorites]
I am pulling this out because it’s not accurate. We now know how to treat covid, and the vaccines and prior infections mean as of right now, it’s less severe disease for the majority of people. That was my calculus, and as an asthmatic, I’m at higher risk.
The circumstances have changed. Is it gone? No. Is long covid still an issue? Yes. But so are anxiety, depression, loss of social bonds and all the things humans need to do to feel whole. I’m firmly convinced the isolation fragmented people and communities in a way that we’re seeing in everything from bad driving to mass shootings, car thefts to overdose deaths.
I came out of covid isolation with a major depression that hasn’t fully lifted. I was suicidal, and fought that urge every day. I can’t fully get out from the black cloud I’ve been under many months later, though it is getting better in fits and starts.
So yes, if what I need to do to protect my mental health is upsetting to anyone, I’m not going to worry too much. I got a life to piece back together and get living. But me in 2020 would probably not understand this either.
On that note, comments like this are making me think long and hard about how I thought about the covid deniers and anti maskers in the beginning. The circumstances seem different to me, but boy I have some thinking to do on perspective and assumptions.
posted by [insert clever name here] at 7:49 PM on July 9, 2022 [20 favorites]
I am curious to where most of you live where you can even have the time to be bothered about people not wearing a mask.
I'm not much bothered by people wearing or not wearing masks, but for anecdotal observation: I'm currently in a very blue west coast place and until just a few weeks ago it was maybe 10% at most who were wearing masks in stores. Now, with the current outbreak and some low-key county-level warnings, it's somewhere in the 40-50% range at the grocery store at the times I go. For work I spend a lot of time in very red parts of the region, and there it is much lower, close to but not quite zero.
The funny thing now is that around here when people see you're wearing a mask, they assume you're sick so they keep their distance. It's like magic.
When I see someone wearing a mask in a setting where most people are not, I assume they are extra concerned (either because they are very high risk, or contagious, or just because of anxiety or whatever) and so I try to give them the maximum space possible as a courtesy. That's interesting that you are seeing that happen, and even if people are doing for confused reasons, it seems like a small positive thing at least.
posted by Dip Flash at 7:53 PM on July 9, 2022 [4 favorites]
I'm not much bothered by people wearing or not wearing masks, but for anecdotal observation: I'm currently in a very blue west coast place and until just a few weeks ago it was maybe 10% at most who were wearing masks in stores. Now, with the current outbreak and some low-key county-level warnings, it's somewhere in the 40-50% range at the grocery store at the times I go. For work I spend a lot of time in very red parts of the region, and there it is much lower, close to but not quite zero.
The funny thing now is that around here when people see you're wearing a mask, they assume you're sick so they keep their distance. It's like magic.
When I see someone wearing a mask in a setting where most people are not, I assume they are extra concerned (either because they are very high risk, or contagious, or just because of anxiety or whatever) and so I try to give them the maximum space possible as a courtesy. That's interesting that you are seeing that happen, and even if people are doing for confused reasons, it seems like a small positive thing at least.
posted by Dip Flash at 7:53 PM on July 9, 2022 [4 favorites]
The CDC has always been a political organisation. Under Trump they were all about denying the virus was airborne in the face of undeniable evidence, under Biden they’ve been all about pretending the pandemic is over now there are vaccines and getting everyone back to “normal”.
We have never for one moment had effective public health messaging or leadership throughout their entire pandemic.
posted by Artw at 8:03 PM on July 9, 2022 [28 favorites]
We have never for one moment had effective public health messaging or leadership throughout their entire pandemic.
posted by Artw at 8:03 PM on July 9, 2022 [28 favorites]
I own a retail store in downtown Los Angeles, and while the county long ago removed its mask mandate, we still require staff and customers to be masked. Which means we spend probably $200 or so per month on masks, disposable for customers and KF94/KN95 for staff. For the 75% or so of potential customers that come in unmasked, our first interaction is “Do you have a mask? If not we have some in the box right there.” We regularly have to ask people to keep the mask over their nose. I do feel like we got more hassle from people when it was still actually mandated by the county, but I am always on edge waiting for someone to go bonkers again because we are asking them to wear a mask for 15 minutes while they are in our store.
Someone yesterday was wondering out loud if it was even legal for us to require masks, and it took a lot of strength to not throw him out on the spot.
None of the staff have gotten COVID since we reopened. I don’t know how they are living their life the rest of the time, but I mask up in indoor spaces and aside for a couple of times pre-Omicron, am not eating indoors at restaurants.
I don’t even know where to start on evaluating whether the HVAC system in our 110-year-old building is turning over their air enough times, but I’m pretty sure I can’t afford to find out and am even more sure I couldn’t afford to fix it.
posted by jimw at 8:11 PM on July 9, 2022 [35 favorites]
Someone yesterday was wondering out loud if it was even legal for us to require masks, and it took a lot of strength to not throw him out on the spot.
None of the staff have gotten COVID since we reopened. I don’t know how they are living their life the rest of the time, but I mask up in indoor spaces and aside for a couple of times pre-Omicron, am not eating indoors at restaurants.
I don’t even know where to start on evaluating whether the HVAC system in our 110-year-old building is turning over their air enough times, but I’m pretty sure I can’t afford to find out and am even more sure I couldn’t afford to fix it.
posted by jimw at 8:11 PM on July 9, 2022 [35 favorites]
One thing that I've been making a point of, when I visit a retail outlet or restaurant or gas station or wherever and the cashier or waitress or staff is masked:
I gesture to my own mask and say, "Thank you for masking."
It's not exactly a secret code between Resistance agents; it's as clear as, well, the masks on our faces. But it makes me feel a little better to see someone else doing their part, and it's my way of reminding them that while they may not necessarily want to spend their day masked up... there are still people who appreciate the fact that they do.
And maybe that'll encourage them to keep it going.
posted by delfin at 8:29 PM on July 9, 2022 [18 favorites]
I gesture to my own mask and say, "Thank you for masking."
It's not exactly a secret code between Resistance agents; it's as clear as, well, the masks on our faces. But it makes me feel a little better to see someone else doing their part, and it's my way of reminding them that while they may not necessarily want to spend their day masked up... there are still people who appreciate the fact that they do.
And maybe that'll encourage them to keep it going.
posted by delfin at 8:29 PM on July 9, 2022 [18 favorites]
So I live in a part of Canada that had a very effective pandemic response for the first little bit, mostly through the delta wave. Omicron coincided with a new provincial government being in power long enough to change the provincial policy around COVID response. It took just from December until I think it was some time in April to rack up the same number of deaths as we had during the entirety of the pandemic before that. And while rates have slowed, those numbers keep growing. It’s like the only number the politicians are capable of taking in is the rate of severe infections per X cases (where x = 100 or 1000, depending on how it’s being counted), and have forgotten basic multiplication, that even if you have a smaller fraction as your rate of hospitalization or death, if you multiply it by a large enough number of total cases, you’ll get a larger total number of hospitalizations and deaths.
We also had a doctor shortage and nursing shortage already going into the pandemic, which has gotten notably worse. I haven’t been able to access medical care for ongoing health issues (fortunately not life threatening, but definitely productivity and quality of life -affecting) for about three years now, and with the way things are going, I don’t expect to have a family doctor again for another three to five years. Maybe ten, if nothing at all changes. Elective surgeries were put off during the earlier days of the pandemic, which was bad enough, but most hospitals have had emergency room closures either for a day or two at a time or simply not able to accept more patients some days due to lack of staff. The extra stress on the health care system is clearly noticeable.
So what has our current provincial government done? Removed all COVID measures. Financial supports for people required to self-isolate had already been withdrawn, so rather than reinstating them for the very large numbers of people required to stay home from work, they decided to stop requiring that people stay home from work when sick. Just a day or two after that change, I walked in to one of my local stores and one of the clerks working there was very clearly sick (congestion clearly affecting their speaking voice and frequent deep, wet cough). They were wearing a cloth mask at least, but not a medical mask. Of course, this store doesn’t give sufficient medical benefits to employees, so the worker probably had no choice but to work while so obviously ill (though the type of mask definitely could have been improved). And the employer gets away with that because our province doesn’t mandate paid sick days.
Anyway, one of my friends particularly struggled with isolation and mental health during the pandemic. In this person’s case, they had found a way to adapt to the lack of mental health care for traumas in their background through performing and gregariousness, which was a form of self-mental health care that mostly worked for them (not fully, but kept them functional and tolerably happy) pre-pandemic. Our government financial supports, while oodles better than anywhere in the US, largely failed the arts community, and also people living alone. So my friend has been personally relieved about the lifting of requirements, and has focused on following what is allowed, but ignoring that our provincial and local medical experts say that the no longer strictly legally required pandemic measures are still strongly recommended. (Basically, the public health folks want/have to move away from having people follow the precautions out of fear of legal punishment to having people follow them voluntarily. But the politicians have completely botched the messaging, and have made political decisions to decrease testing and reporting so that most low information people no longer hear anything about the pandemic.) On the one hand, I understand why my friend is now following basically no pandemic precautions of any sort, and the change in government policy is largely to blame for that, not my friend themself.
On the other hand, my friend who had been very considerate and aware of others’ experiences and needs previously (even in cases where that at times conflicted with my friend’s own needs) now seems incapable of taking in any information about anyone else’s struggles or needs. So I haven’t been able to even have a conversation that acknowledges that their needs are valid but in competition with others’ needs under our current policy and economic structures, but that solutions exist that could help everyone. Like, I can’t even get to the part of such a conversation where we have to determine how much organizing and public pressure would be needed to get such solutions enacted and debate whether that is feasible or not - my friend seems unable to even consider that solutions other than a return to the status quo and their old coping mechanisms could exist. I’ve no doubt that it’s a selfishness born of trauma and unmet mental health needs, but it is selfish and self-centered. My friend either can’t or won’t take in or understand the harms I’m experiencing from the collective abandonment of personal COVID precautions by themself and others in our community; and while I have more sympathy for the can’t case, the actual impact on me is identical either way.
Building on that story, one way to avoid being called out as selfish in a thread like this is, if you describe having made an intentional choice to cease the personal remediation steps that have been and continue to be effective at reducing transmission of a respiratory virus, to also include details about how you are advocating for the structural solutions that would help make our common environments in public spaces, schools, and workplaces safer, and/or for policy changes to provide supports that would enable people to eg. stay home when they are sick. Most of us here aren’t in a position to directly make decisions about building ventilation standards or labor policy, but if you haven’t engaged in any such advocacy or organizing and are doing absolutely nothing to at least try to offset the impacts of your lifestyle reversions, that is selfish. Even if you have a good reason to find mask-wearing particularly difficult, as is the case for some folks I know - yes, given the policy failures of our governments, we do have some competing needs, and your needs aren’t necessarily less valid - still, only privileging your own needs in your words and actions is, by definition, selfish.
posted by eviemath at 9:15 PM on July 9, 2022 [18 favorites]
We also had a doctor shortage and nursing shortage already going into the pandemic, which has gotten notably worse. I haven’t been able to access medical care for ongoing health issues (fortunately not life threatening, but definitely productivity and quality of life -affecting) for about three years now, and with the way things are going, I don’t expect to have a family doctor again for another three to five years. Maybe ten, if nothing at all changes. Elective surgeries were put off during the earlier days of the pandemic, which was bad enough, but most hospitals have had emergency room closures either for a day or two at a time or simply not able to accept more patients some days due to lack of staff. The extra stress on the health care system is clearly noticeable.
So what has our current provincial government done? Removed all COVID measures. Financial supports for people required to self-isolate had already been withdrawn, so rather than reinstating them for the very large numbers of people required to stay home from work, they decided to stop requiring that people stay home from work when sick. Just a day or two after that change, I walked in to one of my local stores and one of the clerks working there was very clearly sick (congestion clearly affecting their speaking voice and frequent deep, wet cough). They were wearing a cloth mask at least, but not a medical mask. Of course, this store doesn’t give sufficient medical benefits to employees, so the worker probably had no choice but to work while so obviously ill (though the type of mask definitely could have been improved). And the employer gets away with that because our province doesn’t mandate paid sick days.
Anyway, one of my friends particularly struggled with isolation and mental health during the pandemic. In this person’s case, they had found a way to adapt to the lack of mental health care for traumas in their background through performing and gregariousness, which was a form of self-mental health care that mostly worked for them (not fully, but kept them functional and tolerably happy) pre-pandemic. Our government financial supports, while oodles better than anywhere in the US, largely failed the arts community, and also people living alone. So my friend has been personally relieved about the lifting of requirements, and has focused on following what is allowed, but ignoring that our provincial and local medical experts say that the no longer strictly legally required pandemic measures are still strongly recommended. (Basically, the public health folks want/have to move away from having people follow the precautions out of fear of legal punishment to having people follow them voluntarily. But the politicians have completely botched the messaging, and have made political decisions to decrease testing and reporting so that most low information people no longer hear anything about the pandemic.) On the one hand, I understand why my friend is now following basically no pandemic precautions of any sort, and the change in government policy is largely to blame for that, not my friend themself.
On the other hand, my friend who had been very considerate and aware of others’ experiences and needs previously (even in cases where that at times conflicted with my friend’s own needs) now seems incapable of taking in any information about anyone else’s struggles or needs. So I haven’t been able to even have a conversation that acknowledges that their needs are valid but in competition with others’ needs under our current policy and economic structures, but that solutions exist that could help everyone. Like, I can’t even get to the part of such a conversation where we have to determine how much organizing and public pressure would be needed to get such solutions enacted and debate whether that is feasible or not - my friend seems unable to even consider that solutions other than a return to the status quo and their old coping mechanisms could exist. I’ve no doubt that it’s a selfishness born of trauma and unmet mental health needs, but it is selfish and self-centered. My friend either can’t or won’t take in or understand the harms I’m experiencing from the collective abandonment of personal COVID precautions by themself and others in our community; and while I have more sympathy for the can’t case, the actual impact on me is identical either way.
Building on that story, one way to avoid being called out as selfish in a thread like this is, if you describe having made an intentional choice to cease the personal remediation steps that have been and continue to be effective at reducing transmission of a respiratory virus, to also include details about how you are advocating for the structural solutions that would help make our common environments in public spaces, schools, and workplaces safer, and/or for policy changes to provide supports that would enable people to eg. stay home when they are sick. Most of us here aren’t in a position to directly make decisions about building ventilation standards or labor policy, but if you haven’t engaged in any such advocacy or organizing and are doing absolutely nothing to at least try to offset the impacts of your lifestyle reversions, that is selfish. Even if you have a good reason to find mask-wearing particularly difficult, as is the case for some folks I know - yes, given the policy failures of our governments, we do have some competing needs, and your needs aren’t necessarily less valid - still, only privileging your own needs in your words and actions is, by definition, selfish.
posted by eviemath at 9:15 PM on July 9, 2022 [18 favorites]
Between 1918 and 1968 we had three flu pandemics that, globally, killed more than a million people each (with the first one obviously killing many, many more than that—an order of magnitude more than COVID with a vastly smaller world population). In between there were regular peaks (for instance 50,000 excess flu deaths in the US in 1928-29).
We know that people at the time knew that masks were effective at controlling the spread of the virus. Yet after the initial wave of restrictions wore off in 1920 masking became basically unheard-of in the US, and nobody said a word about avoiding indoor events or the like. It seems to have taken several more decades for masking to become a regular practice in East Asia, so not even in Japan did those practices persist.
To me that suggests that people basically just want to go back to normal, and that ethical standards around masking will crumble in the face of that desire no matter how many people die. Nobody was getting publicly shamed in 1925 for no longer wearing a mask in public. That's not a normative judgment, maybe they should have been. But I suspect the 21st century experience will mirror the 20th century one, and to the extent that people are hoping that others will adhere to masking practices, they're likely to be disappointed.
posted by derrinyet at 9:49 PM on July 9, 2022 [13 favorites]
We know that people at the time knew that masks were effective at controlling the spread of the virus. Yet after the initial wave of restrictions wore off in 1920 masking became basically unheard-of in the US, and nobody said a word about avoiding indoor events or the like. It seems to have taken several more decades for masking to become a regular practice in East Asia, so not even in Japan did those practices persist.
To me that suggests that people basically just want to go back to normal, and that ethical standards around masking will crumble in the face of that desire no matter how many people die. Nobody was getting publicly shamed in 1925 for no longer wearing a mask in public. That's not a normative judgment, maybe they should have been. But I suspect the 21st century experience will mirror the 20th century one, and to the extent that people are hoping that others will adhere to masking practices, they're likely to be disappointed.
posted by derrinyet at 9:49 PM on July 9, 2022 [13 favorites]
Online is where it’s at right now
2020 wasn't a bad year for me socially. I was suddenly, horribly cut off from my normal social life (like everyone else) but newly able to reach out to friends far away. I even made some new friends. I'd say in a typical week I was spending more time with friends than previously.
Now my online groups are on hiatus or dying. Today was supposed to be an online tv meetup for me; I got stood up without explanation or apology. I take it that my situation is pretty common. It's not just the citywide willingness to mask that's being lost, but also willingness to continue with subsitutes for face to face interaction. In its own way, it's a lonely time.
posted by justsomebodythatyouusedtoknow at 11:39 PM on July 9, 2022 [34 favorites]
2020 wasn't a bad year for me socially. I was suddenly, horribly cut off from my normal social life (like everyone else) but newly able to reach out to friends far away. I even made some new friends. I'd say in a typical week I was spending more time with friends than previously.
Now my online groups are on hiatus or dying. Today was supposed to be an online tv meetup for me; I got stood up without explanation or apology. I take it that my situation is pretty common. It's not just the citywide willingness to mask that's being lost, but also willingness to continue with subsitutes for face to face interaction. In its own way, it's a lonely time.
posted by justsomebodythatyouusedtoknow at 11:39 PM on July 9, 2022 [34 favorites]
when people see you're wearing a mask, they assume you're sick so they keep their distance
One thing missing from a lot of these conversations is that that’s how it *should* work, if we trusted each other. If everyone just wore a mask when they felt sick we’d be in much better shape. Masks are a lot better at protecting others than the person actually wearing them.
posted by aspersioncast at 12:11 AM on July 10, 2022 [6 favorites]
One thing missing from a lot of these conversations is that that’s how it *should* work, if we trusted each other. If everyone just wore a mask when they felt sick we’d be in much better shape. Masks are a lot better at protecting others than the person actually wearing them.
posted by aspersioncast at 12:11 AM on July 10, 2022 [6 favorites]
You can get a new case of Omicron within a few weeks of recovery from the previous case.
A lot of things can happen and have happened to people. Reinfection in that timeframe with the same variant is not particularly common. Unfortunately it is becoming much more common as of, uh, right now, because of the substantial evasion of prior immunity by BA.4 and 5.
posted by atoxyl at 12:19 AM on July 10, 2022 [1 favorite]
A lot of things can happen and have happened to people. Reinfection in that timeframe with the same variant is not particularly common. Unfortunately it is becoming much more common as of, uh, right now, because of the substantial evasion of prior immunity by BA.4 and 5.
posted by atoxyl at 12:19 AM on July 10, 2022 [1 favorite]
On masks- one way for social life to work, the dominant one at least in the UK and probably US I think, is basically social hierarchy and status via emotion. Ofc there's other ways that people work out social hierarchies, other factors, but a large one is via how you express emotions (which is not to say that how emotional you are determines your social status but that normative emotional cues are the language people use to express their already existing social status). Masks interrupt people's ability to recognise others social status and show their own. I really think that and other ways masks lower your social status - association with disability primarily and wanting to appear normative (no one else is wearing them) is a large factor in their decline that isn't talked about much. And of course if this is the dominant mode of social life its difficult not to participate that way as what's the alternative?
I'm finding this a really alienating time but its clarifying at least. Like, I think it points to a deeper problem than people just not wanting to wear a bit of cloth over their face.
Finding comfort in deepening a commitment to connecting in less normative ways embracing different communication and access needs, connecting to Mia Mingus' idea of access intimacy, ideas in Devon Price's unmasking autism.
posted by mosswinter at 1:08 AM on July 10, 2022 [6 favorites]
I'm finding this a really alienating time but its clarifying at least. Like, I think it points to a deeper problem than people just not wanting to wear a bit of cloth over their face.
Finding comfort in deepening a commitment to connecting in less normative ways embracing different communication and access needs, connecting to Mia Mingus' idea of access intimacy, ideas in Devon Price's unmasking autism.
posted by mosswinter at 1:08 AM on July 10, 2022 [6 favorites]
On whether wearing masks is a hardship:
One time I had a cold, and the combination of that and wearing a mask on a hot bus meant I started having difficulty breathing and had to get off the bus before I had a full blown panic attack.
Wearing masks on a hot bus in general is, well, hot and sweaty and so unpleasant. Yesterday I walked for an hour to get home, rather than do that. I have very poor temperature regulation and the heat inside masks is a *problem* for me.
Wearing the mask makes me break out, which seems petty but makes me feel really shitty about myself. Those higher tech face masks linked upthread have generally been are even worse for that, when I've used them in other contexts.
Masks are really shitty for deaf people who do want to lip read, or anyone really who finds that helpful.
And like, yeah I'm still wearing them in every indoor public area! Because I don't want to get covid and care about others! But I'm not going to pretend it doesn't fucking suck, and also I'm going to start playing badminton again even though I can't wear a mask there because I'm not willing to give it up for the next ten years or however long it will be before that is actually "sensible".
posted by stillnocturnal at 2:03 AM on July 10, 2022 [6 favorites]
One time I had a cold, and the combination of that and wearing a mask on a hot bus meant I started having difficulty breathing and had to get off the bus before I had a full blown panic attack.
Wearing masks on a hot bus in general is, well, hot and sweaty and so unpleasant. Yesterday I walked for an hour to get home, rather than do that. I have very poor temperature regulation and the heat inside masks is a *problem* for me.
Wearing the mask makes me break out, which seems petty but makes me feel really shitty about myself. Those higher tech face masks linked upthread have generally been are even worse for that, when I've used them in other contexts.
Masks are really shitty for deaf people who do want to lip read, or anyone really who finds that helpful.
And like, yeah I'm still wearing them in every indoor public area! Because I don't want to get covid and care about others! But I'm not going to pretend it doesn't fucking suck, and also I'm going to start playing badminton again even though I can't wear a mask there because I'm not willing to give it up for the next ten years or however long it will be before that is actually "sensible".
posted by stillnocturnal at 2:03 AM on July 10, 2022 [6 favorites]
Speaking from my location in Germany, about 80 percent are wearing masks on public transport where it us required, maybe 10 percent in shops or closed spaces where it is no longer required. I would say close to 0 percent everywhere else, eg outioor events. I personally still where a mask anywhere indoors, but is it really realistic for me to judge 90 percent of the population as being selfish and reckless? People are following guidelines and obviously everyone has their own tolerance of risk. My mother thinks i am recklessly endangering our lives because I choose to send my kid to pre school or don’t quantine my family for 2 weeks after a contact of a contact tested positive. Meanwhile we take the strictest precautions of anyone I else I know.
posted by exquisite_deluxe at 2:12 AM on July 10, 2022 [7 favorites]
posted by exquisite_deluxe at 2:12 AM on July 10, 2022 [7 favorites]
I'm interested in what empirical evidence has to say, given that only some communities are masking and others are not masking, then what difference does self-selected masking actually contribute?
It's almost like the people in charge don't want us to know the potential number of lives saved if more people just kept wearing masks, given the immune-escaping variants. Governments keep framing this as a "personal choice" issue rather than a social issue.
posted by polymodus at 2:19 AM on July 10, 2022 [5 favorites]
It's almost like the people in charge don't want us to know the potential number of lives saved if more people just kept wearing masks, given the immune-escaping variants. Governments keep framing this as a "personal choice" issue rather than a social issue.
posted by polymodus at 2:19 AM on July 10, 2022 [5 favorites]
it's pretty much impossible to complain in good conscience about Biden's merely half-assed response.
My conscience actually demands I complain about the feckless Democratic Party response. "Slightly better than Trump on messaging" is not a greatly improved pandemic response and damn close to "Thoughts and Prayers" in practical application.
posted by srboisvert at 3:29 AM on July 10, 2022 [6 favorites]
My conscience actually demands I complain about the feckless Democratic Party response. "Slightly better than Trump on messaging" is not a greatly improved pandemic response and damn close to "Thoughts and Prayers" in practical application.
posted by srboisvert at 3:29 AM on July 10, 2022 [6 favorites]
A lot of things can happen and have happened to people. Reinfection in that timeframe with the same variant is not particularly common. Unfortunately it is becoming much more common as of, uh, right now, because of the substantial evasion of prior immunity by BA.4 and 5.
It is also problematic that there are currently two variants at once that seem to content share the "human market" unlike prior variants that supplanted each other. BA4 & BA5 co-existed in South Africa with neither displacing the other. If we end with a rich and diverse ecosystem of multiple variants coexisting we are in a truly bad place of rapid reinfection or even co-infection. It was already bad that the new variants we are selectively breeding for immune escape are outpacing our current vaccine approval processes speed (we may have an original omicron booster by fall but omicron has moved on to three different variants already). So we in effect have 2 or 3 pandemics on the go right now (plus Monkeypox!). Now imagine that but with many significantly different variants that confer no infection acquired immunity to each other. Without a pan-coronavirus vaccine humanity may become a continuously very seriously ill species.
posted by srboisvert at 3:42 AM on July 10, 2022 [1 favorite]
It is also problematic that there are currently two variants at once that seem to content share the "human market" unlike prior variants that supplanted each other. BA4 & BA5 co-existed in South Africa with neither displacing the other. If we end with a rich and diverse ecosystem of multiple variants coexisting we are in a truly bad place of rapid reinfection or even co-infection. It was already bad that the new variants we are selectively breeding for immune escape are outpacing our current vaccine approval processes speed (we may have an original omicron booster by fall but omicron has moved on to three different variants already). So we in effect have 2 or 3 pandemics on the go right now (plus Monkeypox!). Now imagine that but with many significantly different variants that confer no infection acquired immunity to each other. Without a pan-coronavirus vaccine humanity may become a continuously very seriously ill species.
posted by srboisvert at 3:42 AM on July 10, 2022 [1 favorite]
Dang. A lot of talk about masks and mask shaming, not a lot of talk about a wildly ineffective global vaccination program. Like, it's no secret and no surprise that Covid variants have been to coming out of the least vaccinated countries, and the reason those countries aren't vaccinated is typically an ugly combination of capitalism and racism. The problem isn't mefites with mask fatigue. It's not even maga-hat wearing anti-vaxxers. The problem is that this is a global pandemic, but the response to it has been mostly national, mostly fuck you I got mine.
posted by surlyben at 4:01 AM on July 10, 2022 [29 favorites]
posted by surlyben at 4:01 AM on July 10, 2022 [29 favorites]
That looks to me like exactly the same issue, just scaled up.
posted by flabdablet at 4:15 AM on July 10, 2022 [11 favorites]
posted by flabdablet at 4:15 AM on July 10, 2022 [11 favorites]
It seems to me that while people in the west have been abandoned by their governments (ahem, Biden) to deal with this ongoing pandemic by making individual, uninformed or self-informed "risk assessment" and public health choices that this is also not a good excuse to not attempt to mitigate further spread even while there are ongoing issues in post-colonial, underindustrialized/underdeveloped societies. Like both things can be true: people in the west have been abandoned by their governments, and also people in developing nations have been abandoned by the west's governments and their own. Still, people with resource access ought to think bigger and beyond themselves, because *freedom isn't free*, there is a price for living in a society and that price is the inconvenience of wearing a mask, for their own sake and the sake of many others. We don't have much individual power, but this is something small that can be done and has both individual and collective impacts. I don't really fall for the breathless panic around 'mental health' models regarding the cost of masking. For instance, I see my therapist's face - and she sees mine - maskless, because we conduct therapy via telehealth. This is the cost. No such thing as a free lunch. Other therapists are meeting their clients IRL, with masks. Lunch=not free. There are trade-offs in all positions, but looking at the bigger picture, some trade-offs are worth the price of admission, and others are not. Don't feel bad about getting a booster shot when many are set to expire soon, btw.
posted by erattacorrige at 4:40 AM on July 10, 2022 [7 favorites]
posted by erattacorrige at 4:40 AM on July 10, 2022 [7 favorites]
The small business I work in has been an interesting microcosm re: masks. We kept masks mandatory for two months past when the government lifted the requirement and like one commenter above, there was a definite cost to us in supplying masks - it wouldn’t have been a huge deal pre-Covid, but we’re not back there revenue-wise so every penny counts.
We lost about 2% of our customers during that time, loudly. It was the only point in the pandemic that my team was harassed in person, including a guy threatening to punch me because I gave his child a mask. We ended our mandate when Covid rates didn’t spike. We have really good HVAC. We used a SME Covid grant to upgrade what was a good system with separate classrooms venting separately already to a better one as well as out in the automatic doors we’d always wanted for accessibility, back when we thought Covid would be over in 6 months.
Anyways, now about 20% of people who come in are masking, but about 75% of our staff. And it’s not at this point a huge deal in terms of harassment - I get looks from time to time from people I know are anti-mask. My boss, who is both supportive and a huge believer in the power of smiles to motivate kids, has had a few conversations with me about what we lose when we’re still masking and the answer is…something, definitely, but less than having to close for a week because everyone is sick. We’ve lost one team member (work wise; she’s alive) to a damaged heart thanks to Covid.
Most of our competitors quietly never followed the public health rules. In a just world we would have gotten their pro-mask students but it doesn’t work that way.
So far, as far as I can know, we haven’t had a visible set of transmissions - we’ve had people out for Covid, but not like “one person gets it, ten more get it 3-7 days later.” The one exception was in December 2021 when a group of our staff celebrated Xmas Eve together. The new variant may well end this lucky streak. I have summer camps running at 2 locations right now and cross my fingers every single morning.
Long-term it’s my hope that as we can return to healthy financially we can offer mask-required classes. Forever. Right now we can’t because we don’t have enough staff to be that inefficient from a business perspective.
posted by warriorqueen at 5:12 AM on July 10, 2022 [17 favorites]
We lost about 2% of our customers during that time, loudly. It was the only point in the pandemic that my team was harassed in person, including a guy threatening to punch me because I gave his child a mask. We ended our mandate when Covid rates didn’t spike. We have really good HVAC. We used a SME Covid grant to upgrade what was a good system with separate classrooms venting separately already to a better one as well as out in the automatic doors we’d always wanted for accessibility, back when we thought Covid would be over in 6 months.
Anyways, now about 20% of people who come in are masking, but about 75% of our staff. And it’s not at this point a huge deal in terms of harassment - I get looks from time to time from people I know are anti-mask. My boss, who is both supportive and a huge believer in the power of smiles to motivate kids, has had a few conversations with me about what we lose when we’re still masking and the answer is…something, definitely, but less than having to close for a week because everyone is sick. We’ve lost one team member (work wise; she’s alive) to a damaged heart thanks to Covid.
Most of our competitors quietly never followed the public health rules. In a just world we would have gotten their pro-mask students but it doesn’t work that way.
So far, as far as I can know, we haven’t had a visible set of transmissions - we’ve had people out for Covid, but not like “one person gets it, ten more get it 3-7 days later.” The one exception was in December 2021 when a group of our staff celebrated Xmas Eve together. The new variant may well end this lucky streak. I have summer camps running at 2 locations right now and cross my fingers every single morning.
Long-term it’s my hope that as we can return to healthy financially we can offer mask-required classes. Forever. Right now we can’t because we don’t have enough staff to be that inefficient from a business perspective.
posted by warriorqueen at 5:12 AM on July 10, 2022 [17 favorites]
warrioirqueen, throughout the pandemic your descriptions of the structural steps your business has taken, in addition to the policy steps, have been a beacon of hope that we can maybe get more folks to support the structural changes that will make our individual personal decisions less fraught. Thanks for continuing to contribute those examples and comments in our COVID discussions here!
posted by eviemath at 5:31 AM on July 10, 2022 [12 favorites]
posted by eviemath at 5:31 AM on July 10, 2022 [12 favorites]
My husband owns and operates a small martial arts studio in a red-ish dot in a blue state, and still requires masks for all students and lobby people (and of course, wears a kn95 himself). His HVAC is old and there are no funds to upgrade it to anything better, the space is full of people sweating and breathing hard and yelling, most of them kids who until recently couldn't be vaccinated and who knows if they are now, or if that even matters from a transmission perspective. He doesn't currently seem to be losing students due to his masking policy - the students he lost mainly dropped off during the dark zoom-only days of the early pandemic lockdowns, although there have been inquiries that fell through, possibly after they came in and saw what the situation is.
We talk regularly about how long this is sustainable. His lease is set to renew soon and there's this constant tension - can he afford to commit to a three-year commercial lease (you can't break those, if you go out of business, you're still on the hook for all 3 years of payments), knowing that if he keeps requiring masks, eventually even people who are very loyal to him are likely to start looking elsewhere where they don't have to be bothered. If he loosens his standards (for students, he would continue to mask), how long before he comes down with his first case of Covid, and then the next. He is moderately high-risk, no telling how it will affect him. Even if they are mild cases, each time, his business would have to close down, because he is the staff. Each time, his risk of complications would worsen. If he develops long covid: business over. It already takes all the energy he has.
And of course, he also cares about the risk to his students and their families. He teaches five year olds. He teaches 75 year olds. He cares about the community he has built, and obviously doesn't want it to be a vector for any of them, or their parents, or grandparents.
And then there's the large, stodgy corp that I work for, which has forced everyone back to office on a hybrid schedule for no obvious reason, and is now throwing what amounts to chicken-pox parties, but for covid. Requiring hundreds of people to gather in groups of 10-15 randomly assembled from different parts of the company, to spend four hours together in a small room, to basically show off a picture that somebody is proud of (i.e., this is not something anyone needs to do their jobs). No remote option. The pictures on our intranet of this blessed event show a room full of unmasked people, standing shoulder to shoulder and talking excitedly about the picture. Oh wait, is there one person in the background wearing a mask? Smart cookie. That will be me, when I finally can no longer avoid this mandatory session, hopefully after the new boosters come out in fall. The only person in the room wearing a mask, seething and trying to breathe as little as possible.
posted by acanthous at 6:51 AM on July 10, 2022 [20 favorites]
We talk regularly about how long this is sustainable. His lease is set to renew soon and there's this constant tension - can he afford to commit to a three-year commercial lease (you can't break those, if you go out of business, you're still on the hook for all 3 years of payments), knowing that if he keeps requiring masks, eventually even people who are very loyal to him are likely to start looking elsewhere where they don't have to be bothered. If he loosens his standards (for students, he would continue to mask), how long before he comes down with his first case of Covid, and then the next. He is moderately high-risk, no telling how it will affect him. Even if they are mild cases, each time, his business would have to close down, because he is the staff. Each time, his risk of complications would worsen. If he develops long covid: business over. It already takes all the energy he has.
And of course, he also cares about the risk to his students and their families. He teaches five year olds. He teaches 75 year olds. He cares about the community he has built, and obviously doesn't want it to be a vector for any of them, or their parents, or grandparents.
And then there's the large, stodgy corp that I work for, which has forced everyone back to office on a hybrid schedule for no obvious reason, and is now throwing what amounts to chicken-pox parties, but for covid. Requiring hundreds of people to gather in groups of 10-15 randomly assembled from different parts of the company, to spend four hours together in a small room, to basically show off a picture that somebody is proud of (i.e., this is not something anyone needs to do their jobs). No remote option. The pictures on our intranet of this blessed event show a room full of unmasked people, standing shoulder to shoulder and talking excitedly about the picture. Oh wait, is there one person in the background wearing a mask? Smart cookie. That will be me, when I finally can no longer avoid this mandatory session, hopefully after the new boosters come out in fall. The only person in the room wearing a mask, seething and trying to breathe as little as possible.
posted by acanthous at 6:51 AM on July 10, 2022 [20 favorites]
Masks in the face of omicron are perhaps an effective individual mitigation, but are unlikely to be much of an effective population mitigation. Because we're not likely to return to times where we ban indoor situations that can't have masks, such as indoor dining, private social gatherings, and the like, the virus will happily spread though those situations. You're actually getting protection from all of the people out there getting and getting over these variants, and that it's growing quickly means it will fade quickly. Maybe to be replaced with a new variant, maybe with a lull provided by the additional post-infection population immunity.
This isn't great for hospitals when and where the waves of infection cause hospital pressure; the UK has been hit by this and looks like they'll get it again in this wave. For whatever reason, we're seeing less hospital pressure so far in the states, thank God. But that is the reason to have public masking and mitigation rules: to protect the ability of the healthcare system to keep up. Without that pressure, it's hard to maintain credibility with an exhausted populace. I know that you personally may not be exhausted or you personally may not find masks tiresome and difficult to wear constantly but it's just silly to claim that this would all be fine with people to go through again, and this should be obvious by looking around you at what people are eagerly doing which largely is not wearing masks, avoiding travel, and only socializing outdoors
posted by ch1x0r at 7:55 AM on July 10, 2022 [4 favorites]
This isn't great for hospitals when and where the waves of infection cause hospital pressure; the UK has been hit by this and looks like they'll get it again in this wave. For whatever reason, we're seeing less hospital pressure so far in the states, thank God. But that is the reason to have public masking and mitigation rules: to protect the ability of the healthcare system to keep up. Without that pressure, it's hard to maintain credibility with an exhausted populace. I know that you personally may not be exhausted or you personally may not find masks tiresome and difficult to wear constantly but it's just silly to claim that this would all be fine with people to go through again, and this should be obvious by looking around you at what people are eagerly doing which largely is not wearing masks, avoiding travel, and only socializing outdoors
posted by ch1x0r at 7:55 AM on July 10, 2022 [4 favorites]
“ You're actually getting protection from all of the people out there getting and getting over these variants, and that it's growing quickly means it will fade quickly.”
What? No. This is not how it works. Lots of people getting it is how we breed more variants and how public spaces stay unsafe for people like me. It only translates to fading quickly if an infection provides reasons immune protection after infection *which it no longer does* and that was always going to be the case. The evolutionary pressure is towards something that can hopscotch around our body’s protections and we make that WORSE by giving it plenty of hosts to practice on.
posted by Bottlecap at 8:04 AM on July 10, 2022 [25 favorites]
What? No. This is not how it works. Lots of people getting it is how we breed more variants and how public spaces stay unsafe for people like me. It only translates to fading quickly if an infection provides reasons immune protection after infection *which it no longer does* and that was always going to be the case. The evolutionary pressure is towards something that can hopscotch around our body’s protections and we make that WORSE by giving it plenty of hosts to practice on.
posted by Bottlecap at 8:04 AM on July 10, 2022 [25 favorites]
we're seeing less hospital pressure so far in the states
Grimly the best guess there is that many of the most vulnerable among us have *died*.
posted by aspersioncast at 8:16 AM on July 10, 2022 [5 favorites]
Grimly the best guess there is that many of the most vulnerable among us have *died*.
posted by aspersioncast at 8:16 AM on July 10, 2022 [5 favorites]
What? No. This is not how it works. Lots of people getting it is how we breed more variants and how public spaces stay unsafe for people like me. It only translates to fading quickly if an infection provides reasons immune protection after infection *which it no longer does*
What? Yes, that is how it works. You have been misinformed if you think that prior infection provides no immunity. It absolutely does. Epidemiology hasn't magically changed in the face of COVID, we see waves precisely because people develop immunity. As for breeding variants, I'd love to see compelling evidence that we can actually slow down the evolution of variants by extremely modest smoothing of the infection curve that would be maybe brought about by the only change of masking in public spaces. This is still a global pandemic of a virus that has somewhat evaded vaccine-driven full immunity (probably inevitable, still sad), that has reservoirs in animals, and both of those mean that variants will continue to happen, and find ways to spread if they have advantageous mutations for a given population. It just seems fantastical to pretend that we're going to control the variants at this point.
posted by ch1x0r at 8:19 AM on July 10, 2022 [7 favorites]
What? Yes, that is how it works. You have been misinformed if you think that prior infection provides no immunity. It absolutely does. Epidemiology hasn't magically changed in the face of COVID, we see waves precisely because people develop immunity. As for breeding variants, I'd love to see compelling evidence that we can actually slow down the evolution of variants by extremely modest smoothing of the infection curve that would be maybe brought about by the only change of masking in public spaces. This is still a global pandemic of a virus that has somewhat evaded vaccine-driven full immunity (probably inevitable, still sad), that has reservoirs in animals, and both of those mean that variants will continue to happen, and find ways to spread if they have advantageous mutations for a given population. It just seems fantastical to pretend that we're going to control the variants at this point.
posted by ch1x0r at 8:19 AM on July 10, 2022 [7 favorites]
Did you read the linked article? Do you have a compelling case for it being wrong?
posted by Bottlecap at 8:29 AM on July 10, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by Bottlecap at 8:29 AM on July 10, 2022 [4 favorites]
And variants can easily become MORE CONTAGIOUS and cause MORE SEVERE disease, worse than we've seen so far. So no, we do NOT want more people to catch this thing.
posted by tiny frying pan at 8:31 AM on July 10, 2022 [11 favorites]
posted by tiny frying pan at 8:31 AM on July 10, 2022 [11 favorites]
This linked article from the links within the posted article is specificallyabout reinfection. The news is not good about gaining immunity after infection.
posted by tiny frying pan at 8:34 AM on July 10, 2022 [8 favorites]
posted by tiny frying pan at 8:34 AM on July 10, 2022 [8 favorites]
Did you read the linked article? Do you have a compelling case for it being wrong?
It does not say that immunity doesn't happen so I'm not sure what your point is? At best topol talks about the reinfection risk for those with earlier omicron infections. That is not the same thing as no immune protection from infection.
posted by ch1x0r at 8:36 AM on July 10, 2022 [1 favorite]
It does not say that immunity doesn't happen so I'm not sure what your point is? At best topol talks about the reinfection risk for those with earlier omicron infections. That is not the same thing as no immune protection from infection.
posted by ch1x0r at 8:36 AM on July 10, 2022 [1 favorite]
another article
Early on, researchers thought that natural immunity to COVID-19 only lasted for about 2 to 3 months before fading. As the pandemic continued, experts started finding evidence that natural immunity could last for almost a year after infection. But along came the Omicron variant — and that’s changed everything.
The Omicron variant is very different from the original strain of SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19) and the Delta variant that made many people sick during 2021. One big difference is its ability to go undetected by our immune systems, even if we previously had COVID-19. This is called immune escape, or immune evasion.
This immune escape quality is concerning. It means the chance of you getting sick with COVID-19 again is higher with the Omicron variant. In fact, a study from the U.K. found that only about 19% of people who had an earlier infection from COVID-19 were protected from getting sick from the Omicron variant. In other words, over 80% didn’t gain immunity to the Omicron variant after being infected in the past.
posted by tiny frying pan at 8:43 AM on July 10, 2022 [8 favorites]
Early on, researchers thought that natural immunity to COVID-19 only lasted for about 2 to 3 months before fading. As the pandemic continued, experts started finding evidence that natural immunity could last for almost a year after infection. But along came the Omicron variant — and that’s changed everything.
The Omicron variant is very different from the original strain of SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19) and the Delta variant that made many people sick during 2021. One big difference is its ability to go undetected by our immune systems, even if we previously had COVID-19. This is called immune escape, or immune evasion.
This immune escape quality is concerning. It means the chance of you getting sick with COVID-19 again is higher with the Omicron variant. In fact, a study from the U.K. found that only about 19% of people who had an earlier infection from COVID-19 were protected from getting sick from the Omicron variant. In other words, over 80% didn’t gain immunity to the Omicron variant after being infected in the past.
posted by tiny frying pan at 8:43 AM on July 10, 2022 [8 favorites]
Yes the immune evasion is concerning. Still evidence so far suggests that vaccination or prior infection still results in less severity in the resulting subsequent infection.
In 2020, COVID was "novel"; humans hadn't encountered it before, which made it a more serious threat. Two and a half years later, most of humanity has had some exposure, through vaccination or infection. It's all part of how the human organism builds "knowledge" and resistance to a new pathogen.
(I'm not advocating for lowering our guard)
posted by Artful Codger at 8:52 AM on July 10, 2022 [2 favorites]
In 2020, COVID was "novel"; humans hadn't encountered it before, which made it a more serious threat. Two and a half years later, most of humanity has had some exposure, through vaccination or infection. It's all part of how the human organism builds "knowledge" and resistance to a new pathogen.
(I'm not advocating for lowering our guard)
posted by Artful Codger at 8:52 AM on July 10, 2022 [2 favorites]
If you're convinced that everyone is going to constantly get reinfected by the same omicron variant, I'm not going to bother trying to talk you out of what should be on its face an obviously strange thing just based on the continued evidence of infection waves. Perhaps you don't actually think something that unfounded in credible research and common sense and instead simply fear that we will get hit by wave upon wave of immune-evading variant (which is more in line with what we've been seeing). I don't think we know precisely what kind of immunity or how long different omicron prior infections provide, but again, my ultimate point was not "we will all get omicron once and be immune forever" but rather, that masks are unlikely to do much at a population level without other steps, and that if you are worried the increasing population immunity against a given variant is good for you personally if you can avoid getting it while the rates are high, because that is the thing that actually brings rates for that variant down over time.
Personally I'd advise everyone to be a little bit skeptical of Topol as your go-to expert. He's good for a quick take on new research, but he's mostly just good at summarizing, not actually that good at advising what to take seriously and what to take casually. He's amplified plenty of COVID preprints that have been undermined by better research. I follow him for the quick highlights but I don't consider him an expert when it comes to analysis.
posted by ch1x0r at 8:57 AM on July 10, 2022 [3 favorites]
Personally I'd advise everyone to be a little bit skeptical of Topol as your go-to expert. He's good for a quick take on new research, but he's mostly just good at summarizing, not actually that good at advising what to take seriously and what to take casually. He's amplified plenty of COVID preprints that have been undermined by better research. I follow him for the quick highlights but I don't consider him an expert when it comes to analysis.
posted by ch1x0r at 8:57 AM on July 10, 2022 [3 favorites]
Yes, people who got infections with earlier variants are sometimes being reinfected.
posted by ch1x0r at 9:10 AM on July 10, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by ch1x0r at 9:10 AM on July 10, 2022 [2 favorites]
Where is this energy that seemed to be present during the Spanish flu era if architectural artifacts are to be believed (e.g. floor vents; radiators under windows to induce opening them)?
Part of the pandemic response in NJ was a requirement for schools to upgrade their ventilation; for schools that didn't have good enough ventilation to stay closed; and state and federal money to pay for the upgrades.
Putting in a ventilation requirement for new buildings would be a good thing. It would increase the cost for new builds, when construction and real estate costs are already high.
Also, there could have been a carve-out in the infrastructure bill to upgrade ventilation for federal buildings (and maybe there was one). As always it comes down to money.
The failure to upgrade the tax code, and raise taxes on corporations and the rich, I think was the biggest failure of the admin so far and lots of other failures stem from this one.
posted by subdee at 9:17 AM on July 10, 2022 [3 favorites]
A pretty good rundown of current reinfection data here from Dr. Katelyn Jetelina (Your Local Epidemiologist)
From the article:
"How common are SARS-CoV-2 reinfections?
Before Omicron, reinfections were rare. In the U.K., reinfections comprised around 1% of cases in April 2021. With the introduction of Omicron, reinfection rates quickly increased to 11% of all infections. Right now, reinfections make up about 25-27% of cases in the U.K. (Remember, U.K. tracks antigen and PCR tests.)
Unfortunately, we don’t have a national picture of reinfections in the U.S. Some local jurisdictions closely follow the data. In New York, for example, ~25% of cases this week were reinfections. The rate of first infection is 28 per 100K in NY compared to a reinfection rate of 5 per 100K. Waves are still very much being driven by first infections, but reinfections are on the rise."
posted by pt68 at 9:19 AM on July 10, 2022 [6 favorites]
From the article:
"How common are SARS-CoV-2 reinfections?
Before Omicron, reinfections were rare. In the U.K., reinfections comprised around 1% of cases in April 2021. With the introduction of Omicron, reinfection rates quickly increased to 11% of all infections. Right now, reinfections make up about 25-27% of cases in the U.K. (Remember, U.K. tracks antigen and PCR tests.)
Unfortunately, we don’t have a national picture of reinfections in the U.S. Some local jurisdictions closely follow the data. In New York, for example, ~25% of cases this week were reinfections. The rate of first infection is 28 per 100K in NY compared to a reinfection rate of 5 per 100K. Waves are still very much being driven by first infections, but reinfections are on the rise."
posted by pt68 at 9:19 AM on July 10, 2022 [6 favorites]
Increased risk of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection associated with emergence of Omicron in South Africa
Please stop spreading misinformation, ch1x0r.
posted by tiny frying pan at 9:21 AM on July 10, 2022 [7 favorites]
Please stop spreading misinformation, ch1x0r.
posted by tiny frying pan at 9:21 AM on July 10, 2022 [7 favorites]
'Stealthy’ new Covid variant can reinfect you every month
posted by tiny frying pan at 9:24 AM on July 10, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by tiny frying pan at 9:24 AM on July 10, 2022 [3 favorites]
Please stop spreading misinformation, ch1x0r.
I'm sorry, can you be more precise as to how I am spreading misinformation? Like, use your words? Because I think you just shared a pretty silly article about 'stealthy' variants that is certainly not settled science but you're accusing me of sharing misinformation. Just be clear about what you think is settled science. Is it that the likelihood of getting reinfected every month is high? Or simply slightly possible in certain circumstances? Are you unhappy that I think it's unlikely that you'll get quickly reinfected from the same sub-variant but have agreed that people do get reinfected sometimes when they had an infection from a prior (sub or not) variant?
posted by ch1x0r at 9:31 AM on July 10, 2022 [4 favorites]
I'm sorry, can you be more precise as to how I am spreading misinformation? Like, use your words? Because I think you just shared a pretty silly article about 'stealthy' variants that is certainly not settled science but you're accusing me of sharing misinformation. Just be clear about what you think is settled science. Is it that the likelihood of getting reinfected every month is high? Or simply slightly possible in certain circumstances? Are you unhappy that I think it's unlikely that you'll get quickly reinfected from the same sub-variant but have agreed that people do get reinfected sometimes when they had an infection from a prior (sub or not) variant?
posted by ch1x0r at 9:31 AM on July 10, 2022 [4 favorites]
What I'd honestly like is you to actually share information, not just what you believe. I am too tired from currently having covid to fight with you - but I see no facts in anything you've shared.
posted by tiny frying pan at 9:44 AM on July 10, 2022 [7 favorites]
posted by tiny frying pan at 9:44 AM on July 10, 2022 [7 favorites]
I'd also like to know why an article quoting health experts is "silly," but don't expect to find out.
posted by tiny frying pan at 9:47 AM on July 10, 2022
posted by tiny frying pan at 9:47 AM on July 10, 2022
Increased risk of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection associated with emergence of Omicron in South Africa
Please stop spreading misinformation, ch1x0r.
Interesting article -- it backs up ch1x0r's point that there is some immunity conveyed by having had even omicron (the article's conclusion is that omicron is better at immune evasion not that it completely evades the immune response).
It also notes that pre-omicron cases of reinfection were rare, which is not how I remember it being reported. Speaking of misinformation...
posted by Galvanic at 9:49 AM on July 10, 2022 [3 favorites]
Please stop spreading misinformation, ch1x0r.
Interesting article -- it backs up ch1x0r's point that there is some immunity conveyed by having had even omicron (the article's conclusion is that omicron is better at immune evasion not that it completely evades the immune response).
It also notes that pre-omicron cases of reinfection were rare, which is not how I remember it being reported. Speaking of misinformation...
posted by Galvanic at 9:49 AM on July 10, 2022 [3 favorites]
All I've done is share articles. You're welcome to read, interpret, and correct. I've not been making random assertions with no evidence. There is plenty to be concerned about in that article. I encourage everyone to read it. And wear a mask.
posted by tiny frying pan at 9:54 AM on July 10, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by tiny frying pan at 9:54 AM on July 10, 2022 [4 favorites]
I'd also like to know why an article quoting health experts is "silly," but don't expect to find out.
I don't know about "silly," but it definitely has a misleading headline. The people they are quoting in there are saying that you can get BA4/5 a month after having a previous variant (i.e., having had covid previously provides less protection against catching the new variant), not that BA4/5 leads to people getting covid every month in perpetuity.
posted by Dip Flash at 9:56 AM on July 10, 2022 [11 favorites]
I don't know about "silly," but it definitely has a misleading headline. The people they are quoting in there are saying that you can get BA4/5 a month after having a previous variant (i.e., having had covid previously provides less protection against catching the new variant), not that BA4/5 leads to people getting covid every month in perpetuity.
posted by Dip Flash at 9:56 AM on July 10, 2022 [11 favorites]
The stealthy article is badly titled but much more current info than the other one as well
posted by tiny frying pan at 9:56 AM on July 10, 2022
posted by tiny frying pan at 9:56 AM on July 10, 2022
Yep. We all know things have bad headlines sometimes. The info inside is from solid sources and is concerning.
posted by tiny frying pan at 9:57 AM on July 10, 2022
posted by tiny frying pan at 9:57 AM on July 10, 2022
Information about what though? What is it that I have said that you specifically disagree with?
All I'm doing here is sharing the data points that go into my mental model. Again, to be super clear, those data points are that fast reinfection with the same sub variant is very rare (here's a highlight and a link to a preprint that showed how rare reinfections were for ba1 and ba2, which I don't expect to hold for eg ba1 to ba5, but shows that in fact we do get some immunity from prior infection which your own links also show). They are also that omicron tends to be so transmittable that it is very hard to contain with masks at the population level (I think China is a pretty good sign of this, with much stronger mitigations and still a lot of work to keep major outbreaks from happening; there's also decent modeling on this but I will admit it's hard to follow so I rate it as a minor input into my mental model). And of course there is the data point that infections go in waves, which is a basic fact of epidemiology that I'm hoping I don't need to find links for.
From these points plus the major reduction in death and severe disease in the population at this point I conclude that getting upset about mask mandates or lack thereof is not something I believe is productive, but that protecting yourself during surges is a good idea and the eventual population immunity for that variant will be helpful for you if you're particularly worried about getting sick and are able to protect yourself during surges. I'm not solving COVID here, but I see so much anger and energy expended towards a population mitigation strategy that doesn't seem super helpful at this point of the pandemic. There is a ton of anxiety-inducing coverage out there on COVID. I doubt much of what I say is changing any minds. But I've been following various science on the pandemic closely for 2.5 years and it's left me with this perspective.
posted by ch1x0r at 10:10 AM on July 10, 2022 [6 favorites]
All I'm doing here is sharing the data points that go into my mental model. Again, to be super clear, those data points are that fast reinfection with the same sub variant is very rare (here's a highlight and a link to a preprint that showed how rare reinfections were for ba1 and ba2, which I don't expect to hold for eg ba1 to ba5, but shows that in fact we do get some immunity from prior infection which your own links also show). They are also that omicron tends to be so transmittable that it is very hard to contain with masks at the population level (I think China is a pretty good sign of this, with much stronger mitigations and still a lot of work to keep major outbreaks from happening; there's also decent modeling on this but I will admit it's hard to follow so I rate it as a minor input into my mental model). And of course there is the data point that infections go in waves, which is a basic fact of epidemiology that I'm hoping I don't need to find links for.
From these points plus the major reduction in death and severe disease in the population at this point I conclude that getting upset about mask mandates or lack thereof is not something I believe is productive, but that protecting yourself during surges is a good idea and the eventual population immunity for that variant will be helpful for you if you're particularly worried about getting sick and are able to protect yourself during surges. I'm not solving COVID here, but I see so much anger and energy expended towards a population mitigation strategy that doesn't seem super helpful at this point of the pandemic. There is a ton of anxiety-inducing coverage out there on COVID. I doubt much of what I say is changing any minds. But I've been following various science on the pandemic closely for 2.5 years and it's left me with this perspective.
posted by ch1x0r at 10:10 AM on July 10, 2022 [6 favorites]
I guess I'm not grasping what your perspective is despite the long replies. I haven't been talking about mask mandates at all nor am I angry about anything, just to be clear.
We barely get any protection from Omicron infection, is what I'm reading about. I don't think anyone was saying we get none - but next to none isn't much better.
posted by tiny frying pan at 10:18 AM on July 10, 2022 [3 favorites]
We barely get any protection from Omicron infection, is what I'm reading about. I don't think anyone was saying we get none - but next to none isn't much better.
posted by tiny frying pan at 10:18 AM on July 10, 2022 [3 favorites]
I guess I'll fall back and say I think the article linked by pt68 above is a pretty good summary of what we know and don't know about reinfections, and leave it there.
posted by ch1x0r at 10:44 AM on July 10, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by ch1x0r at 10:44 AM on July 10, 2022 [4 favorites]
Vaccines don't protect you from infection.* Your immune system is not just antibody levels since antibody levels naturally wane in the months after vaccination.
A 6 month later booster shot gives your immune cells time to undergo somatic hypermutation, which results in increasing the length and breadth of your immune response. Length because it causes memory immune cells to last long after your antibody levels decline. Breadth because the hypermutation process teaches your body to recognize potential variants it has never encountered. This is why for most people the 3rd booster has been critical for triggering this immune maturation.
The 3rd booster still protects well against severe disease against BA.4 and BA.5. Paul Offit and Vincent Racaniello said this on TWiV yesterday.
If you're medically immunocompromised or an "elderly elderly" then you get the most benefit from the 4th booster. For the majority of the population, 3 shots still works very well.
*Mucosal immunity in the form of a nasal vaccine as mentioned at the end of Topol's piece is an open-ended science project. The TWiV episode mentioned that technical barriers exist, which I take to mean it will take surmounting nontrivial scientific questions in order to developer such technology.
posted by polymodus at 10:48 AM on July 10, 2022 [6 favorites]
A 6 month later booster shot gives your immune cells time to undergo somatic hypermutation, which results in increasing the length and breadth of your immune response. Length because it causes memory immune cells to last long after your antibody levels decline. Breadth because the hypermutation process teaches your body to recognize potential variants it has never encountered. This is why for most people the 3rd booster has been critical for triggering this immune maturation.
The 3rd booster still protects well against severe disease against BA.4 and BA.5. Paul Offit and Vincent Racaniello said this on TWiV yesterday.
If you're medically immunocompromised or an "elderly elderly" then you get the most benefit from the 4th booster. For the majority of the population, 3 shots still works very well.
*Mucosal immunity in the form of a nasal vaccine as mentioned at the end of Topol's piece is an open-ended science project. The TWiV episode mentioned that technical barriers exist, which I take to mean it will take surmounting nontrivial scientific questions in order to developer such technology.
posted by polymodus at 10:48 AM on July 10, 2022 [6 favorites]
It’s kind of funny to see people talking about 75% masking still. My Midwest state went to 10% or less in May/June 2021 when the main restrictions were lifted, I think it was around then. I’m probably overestimating at 10%.
I’m even in a liberal city. It doesn’t matter.
posted by OnTheLastCastle at 10:50 AM on July 10, 2022 [5 favorites]
I’m even in a liberal city. It doesn’t matter.
posted by OnTheLastCastle at 10:50 AM on July 10, 2022 [5 favorites]
Vaccines don't protect you from infection.*
Maybe I'm misunderstanding the point you are making, but this is not correct for the covid vaccines. Here is how the CDC states it: In addition to data from clinical trials, evidence from real-world vaccine effectiveness studies show that COVID-19 vaccines help protect against COVID-19 infections, with or without symptoms (asymptomatic infections).
They obviously don't provide 100% protection even initially and that fades over time, and each new variant seems to evade that protection a bit further, but there is still substantial protection from infection.
posted by Dip Flash at 11:05 AM on July 10, 2022 [7 favorites]
Maybe I'm misunderstanding the point you are making, but this is not correct for the covid vaccines. Here is how the CDC states it: In addition to data from clinical trials, evidence from real-world vaccine effectiveness studies show that COVID-19 vaccines help protect against COVID-19 infections, with or without symptoms (asymptomatic infections).
They obviously don't provide 100% protection even initially and that fades over time, and each new variant seems to evade that protection a bit further, but there is still substantial protection from infection.
posted by Dip Flash at 11:05 AM on July 10, 2022 [7 favorites]
We barely get any protection from Omicron infection, is what I'm reading about. I don't think anyone was saying we get none - but next to none isn't much better.
The article you posted doesn’t say that. It’s from late 2021, when Omicron first rolled around, explaining that it likely substantially evades immunity from previous variants. Now we have the problem that there are Omicron sub-variants than are yet again as distant, such that prior Omicron BA.1 infection provides less protection and anything before that provides way less. But that doesn’t mean that BA.1 infection didn’t protect significantly (not absolutely) from subsequent BA.1 infection. Argue all you want about what might be done to slow down the evolution of the virus, but as far as I can tell what I am saying is what ch1x0r is saying.
posted by atoxyl at 11:13 AM on July 10, 2022 [4 favorites]
The article you posted doesn’t say that. It’s from late 2021, when Omicron first rolled around, explaining that it likely substantially evades immunity from previous variants. Now we have the problem that there are Omicron sub-variants than are yet again as distant, such that prior Omicron BA.1 infection provides less protection and anything before that provides way less. But that doesn’t mean that BA.1 infection didn’t protect significantly (not absolutely) from subsequent BA.1 infection. Argue all you want about what might be done to slow down the evolution of the virus, but as far as I can tell what I am saying is what ch1x0r is saying.
posted by atoxyl at 11:13 AM on July 10, 2022 [4 favorites]
Maybe I'm misunderstanding the point you are making, but this is not correct for the covid vaccines.
I think that's wrong and misleading for the CDC to say it that way.
The CDC was spreading the wrong message about how vaccines work. Now it has caused people to expect protection from infection, when that should never have been the goal.
It's important to understand the basics and the scientific context for CDC's various statements. Having a fire extinguisher does not actually protect your house from catching fire. Any such fire extinguisher that purports to offer protection (from catching fire) was never a technically sustainable feature in the first place.
Getting vaccinated every 6 months for "protection" by upping the antibodies would be an unsustainable interpretation of CDC's statement there, and the CDC itself did a lot of damage by reinforcing this expectation early on in the vaccination program. Multiple scientists have said this.
posted by polymodus at 11:28 AM on July 10, 2022 [1 favorite]
I think that's wrong and misleading for the CDC to say it that way.
The CDC was spreading the wrong message about how vaccines work. Now it has caused people to expect protection from infection, when that should never have been the goal.
It's important to understand the basics and the scientific context for CDC's various statements. Having a fire extinguisher does not actually protect your house from catching fire. Any such fire extinguisher that purports to offer protection (from catching fire) was never a technically sustainable feature in the first place.
Getting vaccinated every 6 months for "protection" by upping the antibodies would be an unsustainable interpretation of CDC's statement there, and the CDC itself did a lot of damage by reinforcing this expectation early on in the vaccination program. Multiple scientists have said this.
posted by polymodus at 11:28 AM on July 10, 2022 [1 favorite]
Was anyone claiming that they expected that “everyone is going to constantly get reinfected with the same omicron variant”? This seems like a straw man argument to me.
Now, the fact that we seem to be getting a new omicron variant not quite monthly is a bit of a concern, however.
posted by eviemath at 11:28 AM on July 10, 2022 [6 favorites]
Now, the fact that we seem to be getting a new omicron variant not quite monthly is a bit of a concern, however.
posted by eviemath at 11:28 AM on July 10, 2022 [6 favorites]
So the WHO has, for PR reasons, avoided giving the new variants new names, lumping them all together into Omicron, and now everyone is predictably confused about what information applies to what variants. So now we've got people arguing "Omicron doesn't provide immunity against Omicron" vs. "Omicron does provide immunity against Omicron" and both are right.
posted by Pyry at 11:30 AM on July 10, 2022 [14 favorites]
posted by Pyry at 11:30 AM on July 10, 2022 [14 favorites]
What about the other one? The one from like 12 hours ago? Apologies for posting something so out of date, as I mentioned I currently have covid and my research skills aren't up to par.
My understanding is that the new variants keep pushing away the old...so it would be unlikely you'd encounter the same variant twice to have sufficient protection against.
Can we take the heat down a little? I apologize for my "misinformation" remark.
I would like to feel like I can share a simple article here that has current information from good sources, which the "sneaky" article did. Stay well, yall.
posted by tiny frying pan at 11:31 AM on July 10, 2022
My understanding is that the new variants keep pushing away the old...so it would be unlikely you'd encounter the same variant twice to have sufficient protection against.
Can we take the heat down a little? I apologize for my "misinformation" remark.
I would like to feel like I can share a simple article here that has current information from good sources, which the "sneaky" article did. Stay well, yall.
posted by tiny frying pan at 11:31 AM on July 10, 2022
A pretty good rundown of current reinfection data here from Dr. Katelyn Jetelina (Your Local Epidemiologist) [...]
Waves are still very much being driven by first infections, but reinfections are on the rise.
That's just silly. We know the data is totally incomplete (even in the UK), so whatever numbers are reported as re-infections are definitely wrong. Basing any kind of conclusion on those numbers makes no sense.
We also know that the overwhelming majority of people have been infected at least once (probably 90% or more in the UK). There's no way first infections are driving anything at this point. There simply aren't a lot more people to infect and we're talking about 2% or so being infected per week in the UK now. BA.5 is definitely being driven by re-infections.
posted by ssg at 11:33 AM on July 10, 2022 [3 favorites]
Waves are still very much being driven by first infections, but reinfections are on the rise.
That's just silly. We know the data is totally incomplete (even in the UK), so whatever numbers are reported as re-infections are definitely wrong. Basing any kind of conclusion on those numbers makes no sense.
We also know that the overwhelming majority of people have been infected at least once (probably 90% or more in the UK). There's no way first infections are driving anything at this point. There simply aren't a lot more people to infect and we're talking about 2% or so being infected per week in the UK now. BA.5 is definitely being driven by re-infections.
posted by ssg at 11:33 AM on July 10, 2022 [3 favorites]
Last week Paul Offit wrote about the FDA committee deliberations on fall vaccination. The issue that came up was whether a BA.1 based vaccine makes sense given BA.4-5 now. Offit himself came to the same conclusion as Topol: this variant chasing will be unsustainable, so they really need investment in variant-agnostic vaccine.
An important point Offit made was that even with an updated, bivalent vaccine (ancestral plus one of BA.x), it remains to empirically proven whether a bivalent vaccine performs significantly better than just producing more of the current version. Right now all they have is, "in theory" a bivalent vaccine would offer higher coverage against future variants.
posted by polymodus at 11:38 AM on July 10, 2022 [8 favorites]
An important point Offit made was that even with an updated, bivalent vaccine (ancestral plus one of BA.x), it remains to empirically proven whether a bivalent vaccine performs significantly better than just producing more of the current version. Right now all they have is, "in theory" a bivalent vaccine would offer higher coverage against future variants.
posted by polymodus at 11:38 AM on July 10, 2022 [8 favorites]
according to this NYT article BA.2 subvariants accounted for 97% of cases as of May 24th
a month & a half later we're looking at BA.5 with 50% & BA.4 around 20%
I am very much not an epidemicist but by my logic, if it is true that a variant confers immunity to itself & not so much its descendants, what you'd want is to keep that variant dominant for as long as possible
which means curbing transmission as much as possible so you're reducing the number of mutations & lowering the chances that you roll up the next super-effective spreader, right?
posted by taquito sunrise at 11:48 AM on July 10, 2022 [9 favorites]
a month & a half later we're looking at BA.5 with 50% & BA.4 around 20%
I am very much not an epidemicist but by my logic, if it is true that a variant confers immunity to itself & not so much its descendants, what you'd want is to keep that variant dominant for as long as possible
which means curbing transmission as much as possible so you're reducing the number of mutations & lowering the chances that you roll up the next super-effective spreader, right?
posted by taquito sunrise at 11:48 AM on July 10, 2022 [9 favorites]
As the BA.5 variant spreads, the risk of coronavirus reinfection grows (Washington Post, July 10, 2022; "This article is free to access."): [Epidemiologist Ziyad] Al-Aly, who is also chief of research and development at Veterans Affairs St. Louis Health Care System, has scoured the VA’s vast database to see what happened to the nearly 39,000 patients infected with the coronavirus for a second or third time. What he found was sobering. In a paper posted online last month, but not yet peer-reviewed or published in a journal, Al-Aly and his co-authors reported that people with multiple infections have a higher cumulative risk of a severe illness or death.
It’s not that the later illnesses are worse than, or even as bad as, earlier cases. But any coronavirus infection carries risk, and the risk of a really bad outcome — a heart attack, for example — builds cumulatively, like a plaque, as infections multiply.
Ziyad Al-Aly is an epidemiologist at Washington University in St. Louis; the paper under review is Outcomes of SARS-CoV-2 Reinfection.
posted by Iris Gambol at 12:04 PM on July 10, 2022 [14 favorites]
It’s not that the later illnesses are worse than, or even as bad as, earlier cases. But any coronavirus infection carries risk, and the risk of a really bad outcome — a heart attack, for example — builds cumulatively, like a plaque, as infections multiply.
Ziyad Al-Aly is an epidemiologist at Washington University in St. Louis; the paper under review is Outcomes of SARS-CoV-2 Reinfection.
posted by Iris Gambol at 12:04 PM on July 10, 2022 [14 favorites]
A small bit on the Al-Aly study (which raised a lot of questions from experts when it landed) was included in the blog post on reinfections above. Between the contradictory evidence from other studies such as this recent preprint shows good protection from severe infection and the fact that the sample group is a high-risk group, claiming that you get cumulative risks for each infection is still very much unfounded for the general population.
posted by ch1x0r at 12:57 PM on July 10, 2022 [7 favorites]
posted by ch1x0r at 12:57 PM on July 10, 2022 [7 favorites]
Also the Al-Aly study defines re-infections as any positive test after more than 30 days and it is not infrequent for people to have a positive PCR test more than 30 days after their first one. Their study concludes than 6.5% of all the people who got infected ended up re-infected within 79 days (pre-Omicron), which is not at all credible. Re-infections were quite rare before Omicron. I think most of their "re-infections" are not actually re-infections at all.
So then they are looking at a correlation between testing positive a few weeks or months after your first test and worse outcomes in the following months, which is interesting, but also not hugely surprising.
posted by ssg at 1:05 PM on July 10, 2022 [3 favorites]
So then they are looking at a correlation between testing positive a few weeks or months after your first test and worse outcomes in the following months, which is interesting, but also not hugely surprising.
posted by ssg at 1:05 PM on July 10, 2022 [3 favorites]
Was anyone claiming that they expected that “everyone is going to constantly get reinfected with the same omicron variant”? This seems like a straw man argument to me.
tiny frying pan posted an article with headline about getting reinfected monthly, so no, I don't think it's a straw man.
posted by Galvanic at 1:06 PM on July 10, 2022
tiny frying pan posted an article with headline about getting reinfected monthly, so no, I don't think it's a straw man.
posted by Galvanic at 1:06 PM on July 10, 2022
Hopefully this isn't too off-topic, but I wish the Biden admin would host a monthly (or better, bi-monthly) press conference with a handful of top epidemiologists to answer questions from journalists. It has gotten increasingly difficult to keep track of the science as a non-scientist, now that there is a whole slew of non-epidemiologists, on both sides of the political spectrum, who are writing articles that are often putting various spins on the data. Once you come across one article where the author is clearly aiming for clicks by being alarmist, you start to take different COVID news with a grain of salt, even if you are taking the pandemic seriously. Again, this isn't referring to the FPP specifically. And then to make things more confusing for all of us, you have the fact that- as is always the case- even epidemiologists don't always agree, but it's rarely explained why they disagree. I'm sure the Democratic Party thinks giving more airtime to COVID is bad for the midterms, but as others have noted upthread, many of our social/economic ills are linked to the trajectory of the pandemic.
Last week Paul Offit wrote about the FDA committee deliberations on fall vaccination. The issue that came up was whether a BA.1 based vaccine makes sense given BA.4-5 now. Offit himself came to the same conclusion as Topol: this variant chasing will be unsustainable, so they really need investment in variant-agnostic vaccine.
Another example of my inability to keep up - I heard (maybe two months ago?) on NPR, a scientist (I think?) saying that this was the scenario we wanted--that if the virus stopped major shifts (like Delta to Omicron) and instead just mutated within Omicron, this would make it easier to update vaccines. But it sounds like this is not the case?
I consider myself above-average informed (listen to about 2hrs of news per day, spend about 1hr reading the news), and I feel pretty lost, so I don't blame anyone who has given up trying to figure out what is happening.
posted by coffeecat at 1:11 PM on July 10, 2022 [8 favorites]
Last week Paul Offit wrote about the FDA committee deliberations on fall vaccination. The issue that came up was whether a BA.1 based vaccine makes sense given BA.4-5 now. Offit himself came to the same conclusion as Topol: this variant chasing will be unsustainable, so they really need investment in variant-agnostic vaccine.
Another example of my inability to keep up - I heard (maybe two months ago?) on NPR, a scientist (I think?) saying that this was the scenario we wanted--that if the virus stopped major shifts (like Delta to Omicron) and instead just mutated within Omicron, this would make it easier to update vaccines. But it sounds like this is not the case?
I consider myself above-average informed (listen to about 2hrs of news per day, spend about 1hr reading the news), and I feel pretty lost, so I don't blame anyone who has given up trying to figure out what is happening.
posted by coffeecat at 1:11 PM on July 10, 2022 [8 favorites]
Galvanic, per the rest of my comment below the part you cited, we’ve had new omicron variants just slightly less frequently than monthly (5 or 6 variants in 6 or 7 months). So yes, it does still appear to be a straw man argument.
From what I’ve read and the experiences of people I know, while a number of folks do indeed seem to be getting reinfected with a second variant as soon as a month after a previous infection, almost no one has caught every strain of omicron, so the headline is still slightly misleading. But every commenter in this thread seems to have agreed about that. But I can see that I was imprecise and left the “in this thread” implicit when I wrote “everyone” while meaning/thinking “everyone in this thread”.
posted by eviemath at 1:27 PM on July 10, 2022 [3 favorites]
From what I’ve read and the experiences of people I know, while a number of folks do indeed seem to be getting reinfected with a second variant as soon as a month after a previous infection, almost no one has caught every strain of omicron, so the headline is still slightly misleading. But every commenter in this thread seems to have agreed about that. But I can see that I was imprecise and left the “in this thread” implicit when I wrote “everyone” while meaning/thinking “everyone in this thread”.
posted by eviemath at 1:27 PM on July 10, 2022 [3 favorites]
ch1x0r, people in this thread are in the high risk group that you are only including as an afterthought in your comments. Your apparent failure to notice this does not in incline me to confidence in your analysis of the facts on hand.
posted by eviemath at 1:29 PM on July 10, 2022 [6 favorites]
posted by eviemath at 1:29 PM on July 10, 2022 [6 favorites]
It's good news if the study is flawed. Dr. Al-Aly's involved in a lot of interesting long-Covid research (cardio outcomes, mental health); does anyone know if there are issues there, too?
posted by Iris Gambol at 1:32 PM on July 10, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Iris Gambol at 1:32 PM on July 10, 2022 [1 favorite]
(I never expected to be ripped repeatedly for a headline on an article. I thought that was stylistically preferred instead of a link to a pull quote of random choosing [didn't want to emphasize anything in particular]. Not sure the way thru that one, when the article has good info. Online journalism keeps doing this, I assumed people would weigh the information in the article more than the title but I see that isn't a given - still - I did not write the title of the article or state that was the point I was making so please consider that a link to an article doesn't mean the person is stating the article's title as a sentence. I guess is my takeaway)
posted by tiny frying pan at 1:34 PM on July 10, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by tiny frying pan at 1:34 PM on July 10, 2022 [1 favorite]
The bottom line is that the anti-vaxxers and the anti-maskers won. I'm reminded of the theory of the spiral of silence, originally developed by Elisabeth Noelle-Neumann. The basic idea behind the spiral of silence is that our perception of the direction of public opinion influences whether we feel comfortable publicly stating our own opinion, especially if that opinion is against the majority opinion. As a result, if the distribution of opinion is distributed in a certain way that leads people to feel uncomfortable expressing a dissenting opinion, that creates a "spiral of silence" that leads to even more people public moving to the majority position, even if they are falsifying their real beliefs to do so.
Basically what happened is that the anti-vaxxers and the anti-maskers were so much more scary and vehement that they intimidated a more mushy middle pro-mask, pro-vax majority into silence. If you are hawkish on masks, you don't really have any moral support from the Biden Administration to be that, let alone any material support. In addition, if you are in a politically red area, you risk attracting hostility for wearing a mask.
In addition, corporate America wasn't going to do mass firings of vaccine refusers, because vaccine refusal was so highly correlated with right-wing conservative identity. Corporate America, even the more "moderate," reasonable corporations, are quite willing to do mass firings of left-leaning employees for union activity, but they are way too chickenshit to do mass firings of right-wing workers, even if those workers are contributing to a major public health risk, because they know they will get backlash that can range from anything to being denounced on Tucker to getting retaliation from Republican state governments to having disgruntled right-wing employees come back to the workplace & start shooting.
posted by jonp72 at 2:09 PM on July 10, 2022 [24 favorites]
Basically what happened is that the anti-vaxxers and the anti-maskers were so much more scary and vehement that they intimidated a more mushy middle pro-mask, pro-vax majority into silence. If you are hawkish on masks, you don't really have any moral support from the Biden Administration to be that, let alone any material support. In addition, if you are in a politically red area, you risk attracting hostility for wearing a mask.
In addition, corporate America wasn't going to do mass firings of vaccine refusers, because vaccine refusal was so highly correlated with right-wing conservative identity. Corporate America, even the more "moderate," reasonable corporations, are quite willing to do mass firings of left-leaning employees for union activity, but they are way too chickenshit to do mass firings of right-wing workers, even if those workers are contributing to a major public health risk, because they know they will get backlash that can range from anything to being denounced on Tucker to getting retaliation from Republican state governments to having disgruntled right-wing employees come back to the workplace & start shooting.
posted by jonp72 at 2:09 PM on July 10, 2022 [24 favorites]
*extremely tired frustrated noises*
This is all anecdotal, but it's something I've been pondering for a while now. I'm having a foggy day, so forgive me if I'm not very clear.
What does asymptomatic re-infection look like or generally mean for all of this?
Let me couch this in personal terms as the patient in question. Let's say I've caught multiple symptomatic cases, and I've also been vaccinated. I'm exposed to a variant. I catch it, but I'm mainly asymptomatic, but contagious.
But I don't know I'm contagious. I'm not getting positive test results from either a rapid home test or laboratory PCR test. How the hell are we supposed to fight that or eradicate it or variations?
Further, what does that mean for my individual health? Let's say I don't have full blown symptomatic symptoms but I'm still experiencing some effects, like increased brain fog and fatigue or other symptoms from the low grade asymptomatic infection and I can't really even tell if it's long covid symptoms all on their own, or if I'm more or less successfully fighting off an asymptomatic infection?
This concept about being (more or less) infected with mild or asymptomatic symptoms has been bothering me for a while and I feel like I have experienced (again, anecdotal) something like this where I was exposed and infected but instead of getting a full blown case of symptomatic, testable covid I'm getting flare ups of long covid symptoms, possibly on a regular basis.
Anecdotally I feel like this has happened to me multiple times, especially back when I was working in a restaurant and washing dishes. There were days where after a shift I had very noticeable flare ups and spikes in milder symptoms like the metallic taste and altered sense of smell, accompanied by symptoms like drastically increased fatigue and body pains that would last 12-72 hours after and then return back to, well, whatever the hell my new normal and baseline is.
As far as I understand viral infections this kind of mild or asymptomatic infection isn't just possible but it's very common. You can have a flu vaccine, still catch the flu, be asymptomatic but still be contagious without really even knowing it and/or have mild symptoms. Or you can have naturally have immunity to a common cold rhinovirus, catch a cold that's extremely mild yet someone else who doesn't have your immunity can still catch it from you and have full blown symptoms.
I have so, so many questions that we don't seem to yet have answers for.
All that being said I'm exhausted and tired about people rushing back to normal life all around me, going unmasked to bars and parties, the pressure of people returning to normal in person work and so much more combined with the additional stress and anxiety of very likely having long covid.
At this point I'm grappling and trying to come to terms with the idea I'm probably effectively and/or functionally disabled in the long term from the effects of long covid and what is very likely the cumulative effects of multiple full blown infections and illness and that I should probably be thinking about my health in terms that I'm immunocompromised.
I'm feeling lost and adrift between the rock and hard place of "Yes, we need to try to return to normal and deal with this with herd immunity because our vaccine technology is never going to keep up with this!" and feeling angry we totally flubbed our global, national and local responses to the pandemic and feeling pissed off that I tried to do everything right and yet I'm still likely going to suffer a great deal because of how badly we have flubbed it.
Meanwhile I get to jump through a ton of hoops with my health care team who need to go through the process of eliminating other things and exhausting rounds of tests and appointments just to prove that I probably have long covid when I already know that and that things are not ok and that everything I've researched and my intuition and self awareness tells me I have long covid and watching people argue about the semantics or politics of masking up or vaccination is just relentlessly fucking exhausting.
I am exhausted. I feel discarded and discounted, and I'm probably not alone in that feeling with people who are also dealing with similar long covid symptoms and issues.
posted by loquacious at 2:41 PM on July 10, 2022 [16 favorites]
This is all anecdotal, but it's something I've been pondering for a while now. I'm having a foggy day, so forgive me if I'm not very clear.
What does asymptomatic re-infection look like or generally mean for all of this?
Let me couch this in personal terms as the patient in question. Let's say I've caught multiple symptomatic cases, and I've also been vaccinated. I'm exposed to a variant. I catch it, but I'm mainly asymptomatic, but contagious.
But I don't know I'm contagious. I'm not getting positive test results from either a rapid home test or laboratory PCR test. How the hell are we supposed to fight that or eradicate it or variations?
Further, what does that mean for my individual health? Let's say I don't have full blown symptomatic symptoms but I'm still experiencing some effects, like increased brain fog and fatigue or other symptoms from the low grade asymptomatic infection and I can't really even tell if it's long covid symptoms all on their own, or if I'm more or less successfully fighting off an asymptomatic infection?
This concept about being (more or less) infected with mild or asymptomatic symptoms has been bothering me for a while and I feel like I have experienced (again, anecdotal) something like this where I was exposed and infected but instead of getting a full blown case of symptomatic, testable covid I'm getting flare ups of long covid symptoms, possibly on a regular basis.
Anecdotally I feel like this has happened to me multiple times, especially back when I was working in a restaurant and washing dishes. There were days where after a shift I had very noticeable flare ups and spikes in milder symptoms like the metallic taste and altered sense of smell, accompanied by symptoms like drastically increased fatigue and body pains that would last 12-72 hours after and then return back to, well, whatever the hell my new normal and baseline is.
As far as I understand viral infections this kind of mild or asymptomatic infection isn't just possible but it's very common. You can have a flu vaccine, still catch the flu, be asymptomatic but still be contagious without really even knowing it and/or have mild symptoms. Or you can have naturally have immunity to a common cold rhinovirus, catch a cold that's extremely mild yet someone else who doesn't have your immunity can still catch it from you and have full blown symptoms.
I have so, so many questions that we don't seem to yet have answers for.
All that being said I'm exhausted and tired about people rushing back to normal life all around me, going unmasked to bars and parties, the pressure of people returning to normal in person work and so much more combined with the additional stress and anxiety of very likely having long covid.
At this point I'm grappling and trying to come to terms with the idea I'm probably effectively and/or functionally disabled in the long term from the effects of long covid and what is very likely the cumulative effects of multiple full blown infections and illness and that I should probably be thinking about my health in terms that I'm immunocompromised.
I'm feeling lost and adrift between the rock and hard place of "Yes, we need to try to return to normal and deal with this with herd immunity because our vaccine technology is never going to keep up with this!" and feeling angry we totally flubbed our global, national and local responses to the pandemic and feeling pissed off that I tried to do everything right and yet I'm still likely going to suffer a great deal because of how badly we have flubbed it.
Meanwhile I get to jump through a ton of hoops with my health care team who need to go through the process of eliminating other things and exhausting rounds of tests and appointments just to prove that I probably have long covid when I already know that and that things are not ok and that everything I've researched and my intuition and self awareness tells me I have long covid and watching people argue about the semantics or politics of masking up or vaccination is just relentlessly fucking exhausting.
I am exhausted. I feel discarded and discounted, and I'm probably not alone in that feeling with people who are also dealing with similar long covid symptoms and issues.
posted by loquacious at 2:41 PM on July 10, 2022 [16 favorites]
If they tell you that you’re probably “just depressed,” don’t lose hope. I believe you because I’m right there with you. Going through another period where I can barely do one thing (like shower or empty the dishwasher) before I’m out of breath and have to lie down.
I hadn’t thought maybe I got reinfected but maybe I did. I’ve taken two tests this week but I’ve never tested positive all these years anyway.
Good thing my job sent a letter reminding us we’re due for two days in office or else last week. I can barely stay conscious if upright for an hour. And my job is all digital.
Hard to stay at all hopeful. I don’t wish long COVID on anyone.
posted by OnTheLastCastle at 3:04 PM on July 10, 2022 [11 favorites]
I hadn’t thought maybe I got reinfected but maybe I did. I’ve taken two tests this week but I’ve never tested positive all these years anyway.
Good thing my job sent a letter reminding us we’re due for two days in office or else last week. I can barely stay conscious if upright for an hour. And my job is all digital.
Hard to stay at all hopeful. I don’t wish long COVID on anyone.
posted by OnTheLastCastle at 3:04 PM on July 10, 2022 [11 favorites]
Galvanic, per the rest of my comment below the part you cited, we’ve had new omicron variants just slightly less frequently than monthly (5 or 6 variants in 6 or 7 months). So yes, it does still appear to be a straw man argument.
Your defense — that the constant reinfections come from different variants — is unconvincing and feels like handwaving at best. So, I’ll stay with my point that it’s not a straw man.
posted by Galvanic at 3:05 PM on July 10, 2022
Your defense — that the constant reinfections come from different variants — is unconvincing and feels like handwaving at best. So, I’ll stay with my point that it’s not a straw man.
posted by Galvanic at 3:05 PM on July 10, 2022
Also, I’m convinced the severe insomnia that only occurs halfway through the night is somehow the worst symptom. I’m only actually awake and fed fresh during those two to three hours.
posted by OnTheLastCastle at 3:05 PM on July 10, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by OnTheLastCastle at 3:05 PM on July 10, 2022 [1 favorite]
The “making a concerted effort” is the impossible part.
I am pulling this out because it’s not accurate. We now know how to treat covid, and the vaccines and prior infections mean as of right now, it’s less severe disease for the majority of people. [...]. On that note, comments like this are making me think long and hard about how I thought about the covid deniers and anti maskers in the beginning. The circumstances seem different to me, but boy I have some thinking to do on perspective and assumptions.
I'm not sure how any of what you said makes what I said "not accurate". A concerted effort (and better global politics, and more equitable vaccine distribution, and less disinformation) could have stopped COVID in the beginning. It can't now. It's too late. The disease has spread, it's endemic worldwide, it's in animal populations, it's mutating fast, it's not going away. That misinformation is still with us and is not going away, the global inequity in medical supplies and vaccines didn't go away, and the existence of vaccines and it being a 'less severe disease' only make that "concerted effort" even less likely as more and more people make the (perhaps rational, perhaps fatalistic, perhaps both) decision to just live with it.
At this point I expect to be wearing a mask in public for the rest of my life. (My partner is also immunocompromised.) I hate it, but I don't see any realistic alternative.
posted by ook at 3:21 PM on July 10, 2022 [1 favorite]
I am pulling this out because it’s not accurate. We now know how to treat covid, and the vaccines and prior infections mean as of right now, it’s less severe disease for the majority of people. [...]. On that note, comments like this are making me think long and hard about how I thought about the covid deniers and anti maskers in the beginning. The circumstances seem different to me, but boy I have some thinking to do on perspective and assumptions.
I'm not sure how any of what you said makes what I said "not accurate". A concerted effort (and better global politics, and more equitable vaccine distribution, and less disinformation) could have stopped COVID in the beginning. It can't now. It's too late. The disease has spread, it's endemic worldwide, it's in animal populations, it's mutating fast, it's not going away. That misinformation is still with us and is not going away, the global inequity in medical supplies and vaccines didn't go away, and the existence of vaccines and it being a 'less severe disease' only make that "concerted effort" even less likely as more and more people make the (perhaps rational, perhaps fatalistic, perhaps both) decision to just live with it.
At this point I expect to be wearing a mask in public for the rest of my life. (My partner is also immunocompromised.) I hate it, but I don't see any realistic alternative.
posted by ook at 3:21 PM on July 10, 2022 [1 favorite]
A concerted effort (and better global politics, and more equitable vaccine distribution, and less disinformation) could have stopped COVID in the beginning. It can't now. It's too late.
I realize everyone's feelings are raw right now, especially in the US, but I'd like to push back against this idea. It's tempting to indulge in thoughts about how if we'd only worked harder and been more careful and diligent we could be living in a radically different world today, but please consider the possibility that this might not have been possible, beyond possibly a vanishingly narrow sliver of time and space in the second half of 2019 somewhere in China. Once people in the US were locking down and masking--or refusing to--I suspect the horses had been out of the proverbial barn for a good long time, and changing that would have required global-scale coordination and compliance on a scale that we've never seen, and are never likely to see. Even in early 2020, the stated goal of lockdowns was to "flatten the curve" and prevent the collapse of healthcare systems, not to stop the pandemic in its tracks.
posted by pullayup at 3:52 PM on July 10, 2022 [15 favorites]
I realize everyone's feelings are raw right now, especially in the US, but I'd like to push back against this idea. It's tempting to indulge in thoughts about how if we'd only worked harder and been more careful and diligent we could be living in a radically different world today, but please consider the possibility that this might not have been possible, beyond possibly a vanishingly narrow sliver of time and space in the second half of 2019 somewhere in China. Once people in the US were locking down and masking--or refusing to--I suspect the horses had been out of the proverbial barn for a good long time, and changing that would have required global-scale coordination and compliance on a scale that we've never seen, and are never likely to see. Even in early 2020, the stated goal of lockdowns was to "flatten the curve" and prevent the collapse of healthcare systems, not to stop the pandemic in its tracks.
posted by pullayup at 3:52 PM on July 10, 2022 [15 favorites]
A concerted effort (and better global politics, and more equitable vaccine distribution, and less disinformation) could have stopped COVID in the beginning.
There was maybe a momentary window of opportunity when it was a tiny outbreak just barely starting in China where it could have actually been stopped, but the minute people got on airplanes and flew to other countries the cat was out of the bag. There's no excuse for the debacle in the US and many other countries (including the hoarding of resources by rich countries, and on and on) that has resulted in such a high death rate, but I can't see any way in which realistically this wasn't going to end up as an endemic disease around the world.
posted by Dip Flash at 3:56 PM on July 10, 2022 [11 favorites]
There was maybe a momentary window of opportunity when it was a tiny outbreak just barely starting in China where it could have actually been stopped, but the minute people got on airplanes and flew to other countries the cat was out of the bag. There's no excuse for the debacle in the US and many other countries (including the hoarding of resources by rich countries, and on and on) that has resulted in such a high death rate, but I can't see any way in which realistically this wasn't going to end up as an endemic disease around the world.
posted by Dip Flash at 3:56 PM on July 10, 2022 [11 favorites]
Waves are still very much being driven by first infections, but reinfections are on the rise.Let's see. MRC Biostats says 85% of people have been infected in England.
That's just silly... the overwhelming majority of people have been infected at least once
If I want to believe that less than 50% of today's infections are re-infections, I have to think people who have already been infected are less than... 15/85 = 18% as likely to get infected today? Compared to people who haven't already been infected?
I don't believe that's true for people who were infected before Omicron. Which MRC say is about half of them. Even if I assumed the Omicron half are 100% immune, the pre-Omicron half need to be 36% as likely, i.e. 64% immune. There's a May release from ONS that suggests no, protection is significantly less than 66%. ONS will be biased, by people in the control group they didn't realize had actually been infected. But still.
Don't think I should believe "reinfections make up about 25-27% of cases in the U.K."
posted by sourcejedi at 4:13 PM on July 10, 2022 [1 favorite]
which means curbing transmission as much as possible so you're reducing the number of mutations & lowering the chances that you roll up the next super-effective spreader, right?
There was a Radiolab episode a while back discussing how it may be individual /really bad/ cases that produce variants as much as widespread cases. They had a case of an intubated person with some six variants present in their system, some of which later became variants 'of concern' more broadly. My rough understanding of this is that it takes a while for the virus to get established in a new host, and a strong immune system will flush it out relatively quickly, before there's been much space for mutation. A long case gives a lot more time for an established virus to mutate into new forms, some of which manage to spread to new people.
posted by kaibutsu at 4:49 PM on July 10, 2022 [2 favorites]
There was a Radiolab episode a while back discussing how it may be individual /really bad/ cases that produce variants as much as widespread cases. They had a case of an intubated person with some six variants present in their system, some of which later became variants 'of concern' more broadly. My rough understanding of this is that it takes a while for the virus to get established in a new host, and a strong immune system will flush it out relatively quickly, before there's been much space for mutation. A long case gives a lot more time for an established virus to mutate into new forms, some of which manage to spread to new people.
posted by kaibutsu at 4:49 PM on July 10, 2022 [2 favorites]
Was anyone claiming that they expected that “everyone is going to constantly get reinfected with the same omicron variant”? This seems like a straw man argument to me.
Either one of the two main participants in the argument I stepped into was arguing this or they were talking past each other the whole time, while accusing each other of spreading misinformation. I originally thought "talking past each other" but the phrasing I quoted and linking of headlines with similarly confusing phrasing made me start to think otherwise, and in either case I think the clarification is worthwhile.
What about the other one? The one from like 12 hours ago? Apologies for posting something so out of date, as I mentioned I currently have covid and my research skills aren't up to par.
If this is referring the the "stealthy" article it's a badly written headline for an article that is once again talking about a new variant reinfecting people who had had older variants.
posted by atoxyl at 5:27 PM on July 10, 2022
Either one of the two main participants in the argument I stepped into was arguing this or they were talking past each other the whole time, while accusing each other of spreading misinformation. I originally thought "talking past each other" but the phrasing I quoted and linking of headlines with similarly confusing phrasing made me start to think otherwise, and in either case I think the clarification is worthwhile.
What about the other one? The one from like 12 hours ago? Apologies for posting something so out of date, as I mentioned I currently have covid and my research skills aren't up to par.
If this is referring the the "stealthy" article it's a badly written headline for an article that is once again talking about a new variant reinfecting people who had had older variants.
posted by atoxyl at 5:27 PM on July 10, 2022
That is not all that article says.
Most people – even when triple-vaccinated – had 20 times less neutralising antibody response against Omicron than against the initial ‘Wuhan’ strain,” Mr Altmann said, noting that, importantly, “Omicron infection was a poor booster of immunity to further Omicron infections”.
“It is a kind of stealth virus that gets in under the radar,” he said, emphasising that “even having had Omicron, we’re not well protected from further infections”.
posted by tiny frying pan at 5:51 PM on July 10, 2022 [1 favorite]
Most people – even when triple-vaccinated – had 20 times less neutralising antibody response against Omicron than against the initial ‘Wuhan’ strain,” Mr Altmann said, noting that, importantly, “Omicron infection was a poor booster of immunity to further Omicron infections”.
“It is a kind of stealth virus that gets in under the radar,” he said, emphasising that “even having had Omicron, we’re not well protected from further infections”.
posted by tiny frying pan at 5:51 PM on July 10, 2022 [1 favorite]
I read the argument here as NON omicron infected and recovered people were then getting omicron. What I think the news is, more that having omicron and recovering...then getting omicron again is increasingly more likely. Meaning immunity from being infected is getting worse and worse. That is not what I thought what was being asserted upthread.
posted by tiny frying pan at 5:55 PM on July 10, 2022
posted by tiny frying pan at 5:55 PM on July 10, 2022
Anecdotally I feel like this has happened to me multiple times, especially back when I was working in a restaurant and washing dishes. There were days where after a shift I had very noticeable flare ups and spikes in milder symptoms like the metallic taste and altered sense of smell, accompanied by symptoms like drastically increased fatigue and body pains that would last 12-72 hours after and then return back to, well, whatever the hell my new normal and baseline is.
loquacious, this sounds a lot like what people call post-exertional malaise (PEM), which is a common pattern in Long Covid (and ME/CFS, which is very similar to many Long Covid cases). It's basically a significant worsening of any number of symptoms, usually with significant fatigue and often brain fog, that happens after passing some kind of exertion limit, often with a delay of hours to days before it really hits. A lot of people describe something like feeling they are coming down with a flu or cold, but it can include all kinds of symptoms. The best we can do to prevent PEM, unfortunately, is just to try to stay within our limits, as difficult as that can be. Sometimes when people don't see the pattern, they end up stuck in a cycle of feeling worse, then better, then overdoing it, then feeling worse, and on and on.
I hope you're able to get some rest.
posted by ssg at 6:11 PM on July 10, 2022 [7 favorites]
loquacious, this sounds a lot like what people call post-exertional malaise (PEM), which is a common pattern in Long Covid (and ME/CFS, which is very similar to many Long Covid cases). It's basically a significant worsening of any number of symptoms, usually with significant fatigue and often brain fog, that happens after passing some kind of exertion limit, often with a delay of hours to days before it really hits. A lot of people describe something like feeling they are coming down with a flu or cold, but it can include all kinds of symptoms. The best we can do to prevent PEM, unfortunately, is just to try to stay within our limits, as difficult as that can be. Sometimes when people don't see the pattern, they end up stuck in a cycle of feeling worse, then better, then overdoing it, then feeling worse, and on and on.
I hope you're able to get some rest.
posted by ssg at 6:11 PM on July 10, 2022 [7 favorites]
Re: whether, under ideal government leadership, we could at one earlier point in time have had an effective global COVID zero approach and wiped out the pandemic: the experience of my region and quite a few others around the world proves that this was indeed physically feasible at one point (in fact, at any point up to about a year or maybe even year and a half into the pandemic). Because I keep getting quoted incompletely in ways that put my words out of context, please be sure to also read (and include in a quote, if quoting) the following sentence as well: I want to be clear that I am distinguishing between physically feasible and politically feasible. There were a lot of political challenges, beyond the abysmal US response. Though many folks in the US (including here on Metafilter at times) seem a bit unaware of just how abysmal the US response was. (It’s not dissimilar to the defeatism around gun violence that is relatively common in the US, that comes across as similarly myopic to those of us living in other countries.)
posted by eviemath at 6:13 PM on July 10, 2022 [7 favorites]
posted by eviemath at 6:13 PM on July 10, 2022 [7 favorites]
I'm losing hope that Covid will be reduced to something the hospital system can cope with by anything other than a pan-coronavirus vaccine at this point.
New variants with improved immune escape have been appearing every 3-9 months since we reached a level of population immunity that rewards them and rolling out modified boosters can't match that speed because the approval process is too slow.
Either we get a new type of vaccine or we wait until the pace of new variants slows to something pfizer/moderna can keep up with, and it feels like we're years and multiple reinfections for the average person away from either.
posted by zymil at 6:24 PM on July 10, 2022 [3 favorites]
New variants with improved immune escape have been appearing every 3-9 months since we reached a level of population immunity that rewards them and rolling out modified boosters can't match that speed because the approval process is too slow.
Either we get a new type of vaccine or we wait until the pace of new variants slows to something pfizer/moderna can keep up with, and it feels like we're years and multiple reinfections for the average person away from either.
posted by zymil at 6:24 PM on July 10, 2022 [3 favorites]
It's good news if the study is flawed. Dr. Al-Aly's involved in a lot of interesting long-Covid research (cardio outcomes, mental health); does anyone know if there are issues there, too?
I think Al-Aly's other work with the Veteran's Affairs data set is not as bad as the re-infections study, but there are definitely some key things to look out for. One is that they try to control for health status pre-infection, but they can't entirely do that with the data they have available. So if people who are in poorer health in general are more likely to get infected (and more likely to have severe symptoms), that would introduce bias. Bear in mind also that these studies are in older folks (average is over 60) and almost entirely men (who are more likely to have worse effects from Covid and more likely to have heart attacks, etc), so they can't readily be generalized to the overall population.
In particular, if you look at how many excess deaths their research predicts in this age group, we don't see numbers that high in real-world data, so there is some kind of bias in the data (likely people who were in poorer health were more likely to get Covid or were more likely to get tested).
But overall, I have no doubt that there are elevated risks of heart attacks, strokes, new onset diabetes, etc after Covid. This is also true of the flu and probably other infections, but not necessarily to the same degree. Influenza is actually a lot worse, including with post-acute impacts, than we like to admit (or than we claim in the "just like the flu" discourse over the past couple years).
I'd also say that what they are measuring is more increased risks of specific diagnoses after acute Covid and less what is commonly called Long Covid, which is harder to pull out of health records.
I really wish someone would do an in depth study that takes 1000 patients with Covid and follows them with regular medical examinations for a couple years to really describe how frequent and how severe Long Covid is and what the symptoms are. Because what we have now are just aggregated data from electronic health records (like the Al-Aly VA studies) and surveys (like the ONS) and both have significant drawbacks. Surely with so many people suffering from Long Covid, it would be worth our while to really characterize it completely.
posted by ssg at 6:31 PM on July 10, 2022 [7 favorites]
I think Al-Aly's other work with the Veteran's Affairs data set is not as bad as the re-infections study, but there are definitely some key things to look out for. One is that they try to control for health status pre-infection, but they can't entirely do that with the data they have available. So if people who are in poorer health in general are more likely to get infected (and more likely to have severe symptoms), that would introduce bias. Bear in mind also that these studies are in older folks (average is over 60) and almost entirely men (who are more likely to have worse effects from Covid and more likely to have heart attacks, etc), so they can't readily be generalized to the overall population.
In particular, if you look at how many excess deaths their research predicts in this age group, we don't see numbers that high in real-world data, so there is some kind of bias in the data (likely people who were in poorer health were more likely to get Covid or were more likely to get tested).
But overall, I have no doubt that there are elevated risks of heart attacks, strokes, new onset diabetes, etc after Covid. This is also true of the flu and probably other infections, but not necessarily to the same degree. Influenza is actually a lot worse, including with post-acute impacts, than we like to admit (or than we claim in the "just like the flu" discourse over the past couple years).
I'd also say that what they are measuring is more increased risks of specific diagnoses after acute Covid and less what is commonly called Long Covid, which is harder to pull out of health records.
I really wish someone would do an in depth study that takes 1000 patients with Covid and follows them with regular medical examinations for a couple years to really describe how frequent and how severe Long Covid is and what the symptoms are. Because what we have now are just aggregated data from electronic health records (like the Al-Aly VA studies) and surveys (like the ONS) and both have significant drawbacks. Surely with so many people suffering from Long Covid, it would be worth our while to really characterize it completely.
posted by ssg at 6:31 PM on July 10, 2022 [7 favorites]
Just as a personal anecdote : Triple vaccinated. I got covid a month ago. Was sick for 2 weeks. Got better for a week - then got it _again_. Twice in 3 weeks. This latest bout is worse.
posted by goddess_eris at 7:48 PM on July 10, 2022 [7 favorites]
posted by goddess_eris at 7:48 PM on July 10, 2022 [7 favorites]
I was at the farmers' market last week and I overheard this:
"Did you get that vaccine?"
"What vaccine?"
"The covid vaccine!"
"Oh! No, but I'm prolly good: I had covid three times."
Today I was in the tiny tiny tiny very old building with who knows but presumably pretty shitty HVAC always crowded little indy food mart and not one single person had a mask on except for the bagger in my lane, and even he was dicknosing in his dingy, droopy surgical mask.
What the hell, man. What the hell? Look, even a minor headcold is an enormous pain in the ass. The single best thing to come out of this ruinous plague is that we learned that you don't pick up a case of the snots from touching surfaces as the CDC has been insisting for decades: they are clearly all airborne, since I used to get at least one a year despite handwashing like a fiend and have not been congested once, not one single time, since 2020 when I donned masks inside public spaces. Why on earth wouldn't you put on a mask in a store and skip getting sick all the time? The masochism in this country is difficult to fathom.
posted by Don Pepino at 7:50 PM on July 10, 2022 [26 favorites]
"Did you get that vaccine?"
"What vaccine?"
"The covid vaccine!"
"Oh! No, but I'm prolly good: I had covid three times."
Today I was in the tiny tiny tiny very old building with who knows but presumably pretty shitty HVAC always crowded little indy food mart and not one single person had a mask on except for the bagger in my lane, and even he was dicknosing in his dingy, droopy surgical mask.
What the hell, man. What the hell? Look, even a minor headcold is an enormous pain in the ass. The single best thing to come out of this ruinous plague is that we learned that you don't pick up a case of the snots from touching surfaces as the CDC has been insisting for decades: they are clearly all airborne, since I used to get at least one a year despite handwashing like a fiend and have not been congested once, not one single time, since 2020 when I donned masks inside public spaces. Why on earth wouldn't you put on a mask in a store and skip getting sick all the time? The masochism in this country is difficult to fathom.
posted by Don Pepino at 7:50 PM on July 10, 2022 [26 favorites]
It's not all of China and it's pretty far from designing a building around it, but Hong Kong has implemented air circulation/filtration standards to reduce contagion, from Metafilter's own Naomi Wu.
posted by meowzilla at 8:26 PM on July 10, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by meowzilla at 8:26 PM on July 10, 2022 [4 favorites]
I'm tentatively hopeful there's going to be market spillover for my side of Asia at least, in terms of consumer options. The current home-based stuff (ETA: the UV-C stuff) is really dominated by Philips and it's the kind you need to vacate the room for at least 30 mins (because it's placed on a surface not hanging from the ceiling). As it is my office is back to 3x/week minimum routine next month even as the new wave is building and I'm already looking at collapsible privacy screens for my cubicle if only to give my desktop air purifier a better working chance.
posted by cendawanita at 9:12 PM on July 10, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by cendawanita at 9:12 PM on July 10, 2022 [3 favorites]
Just for context, Paul Offit was one of only two people on the relevant FDA committee to vote against updating booster shots for Omicron (a 19-2 vote) or its newer subvariants. He has been (IMHO unreasonably) anti-booster since the beginning for all but the most elderly and vulnerable groups. While I don’t blame him personally for this, I think the media folks who selectively quoted and amplified that booster pessimism far and wide (ahem, NYT), without putting his remarks into context, have a lot to answer for when it comes to the frankly abysmal third- and fourth-shot uptake we’ve seen in the US.
posted by en forme de poire at 9:55 PM on July 10, 2022 [7 favorites]
posted by en forme de poire at 9:55 PM on July 10, 2022 [7 favorites]
His argument against updating, FWIW, is in part basically that the Omicron shot isn’t that much better than the original and so people might risk-compensate as a result — which to me 1. is a great example of the type of public health paternalism we’ve seen so much that says the public can’t be trusted with accurate information or better protection, which as far as I know is not actually an evidence-based position and furthermore actively erodes trust with the public, 2. ignores that lots of people have already changed their behavior and appear extremely unwilling to change it back, regardless of whether there’s a new vaccine or whether you tell them they can’t be trusted with better protection, and 3. ignores that people who get boosters are typically more likely to take other precautions, not less.
posted by en forme de poire at 10:07 PM on July 10, 2022 [13 favorites]
posted by en forme de poire at 10:07 PM on July 10, 2022 [13 favorites]
Anyway Topol has sometimes jumped the gun a little on Twitter with preliminary data, but I think he’s right that it’s bizarre that we update flu vaccines yearly without as lengthy an approval process, a considerably harder change than updating an mRNA vaccine, and yet we’re in year 3 of the Covid pandemic and remain blithely vaccinating against the original strain. Topol and Offit also apparently agree on the potential game changing impact of vaccines targeting mucosal immunity, btw, so it would be great if Republicans+Manchin hadn’t essentially forced Biden to stop spending money on vaccine development (and if Biden/Dems hadn’t so thoroughly capitulated).
posted by en forme de poire at 10:33 PM on July 10, 2022 [10 favorites]
posted by en forme de poire at 10:33 PM on July 10, 2022 [10 favorites]
COVID TAKES
posted by en forme de poire at 10:33 PM on July 10, 2022
posted by en forme de poire at 10:33 PM on July 10, 2022
That's not his argument in the essay. Ignore the NYTimes, please read the actual essay up to the penultimate paragraph where he discusses risk compensation. He also explains the fundamental biological reason why changing up a booster only wakes up your memory cells which are based on the original vaccine, thus fundamentally limiting the usefulness of a new booster.
It's not paternalism to point out if the CDC/FDA/Pfizer promote a booster as if it were a software update, that would lead to social-wide consequences. Misleading the public would be paternalism. As would encouraging a consumer mentality when a national or global scale vaccine programme depends on structural decisions.
posted by polymodus at 10:51 PM on July 10, 2022 [1 favorite]
It's not paternalism to point out if the CDC/FDA/Pfizer promote a booster as if it were a software update, that would lead to social-wide consequences. Misleading the public would be paternalism. As would encouraging a consumer mentality when a national or global scale vaccine programme depends on structural decisions.
posted by polymodus at 10:51 PM on July 10, 2022 [1 favorite]
This is why I push back against the idea that we should be grateful people are out there getting it. No break in the waves.
It was previously possible for me to delay healthcare for a lull in the waves and have some confidence in timing. I am now caught with several appointments that ought to have been during a relatively safe period for me to be indoors around sick people instead falling at a time when there’s as much Covid circulating in my community as November last year. I got half has many necessary medical appointments done in the time available because it was so short. And now we have fourth of July numbers starting their peak on an already high plateau, which basically guarantees that there will be no dip before in person school starts. Which then leads into the November/December holiday season of doom. Which means that the next time I have a vague hope of a safe period for an in person procedure where I have to take off my mask is *maybe* March. If I’m lucky and we actually have a sharp down slope like we did this year.
It’s JULY and I’m rebooking appointments for MARCH next year. I’m counting the next seven months as a loss. Because people think that they’re somehow doing me a favor by getting sick and getting the wave over faster?
And because of the trailing strain on health systems, the reverberations of those waves often doesn’t start impacting me until after most people are well. Because that’s when suddenly all my imaging and complex procedures get rescheduled and pushed for people who are in freefall crisis because hospitalization and death is a lagging indicator. So, I can’t go out while everyone is sick and when everyone is “well” the people who are in the ICU take precedence and my procedures get pushed back into … the middle of the next wave. Elective surgery is still canceled where I am. And elective merely means “scheduled in advance.” A friend had to wait until their gallbladder had actually ruptured for surgery because it was “elective” until then.
So yes, it’s actually quite an insane thing to say that I ought to be thankful people are out there getting sick. I look at the charts since 2020 and I see the windows for getting medical care getting shorter and shorter because the waves are getting closer and closer together.
TWiV used to be a wonderful source of information, and then they decided that a mass disabeling event didn’t matter. It was horrifying - still is - to be a disabled listener and have that slide happen in real time. One of their own hosts is clearly suffering from Covid induced brain fog and every week they dismiss “fatigue” as no big deal. They’ve decided people like me *don’t exist.* The primary host of the shown doesn’t believe there are disabled college students in his classes and that he shouldn’t have to mask indoors to protect them. They are not uninterested reporters. They began having a very clear and pointed agenda the moment it became clear a third shot would be necessary and they have doubled down on their position, even after getting the third shot. They pretty consistently pick minority view points and ignore their own internal logic.
As they say “no one is safe until everyone is safe.” I AM NOT SAFE and neither are other people with preexisting conditions. But they’re perfectly happy to discuss at length how bodies like mine are incubators that create variants without ever drawing the conclusion that people like me are worth protecting.
posted by Bottlecap at 11:21 PM on July 10, 2022 [22 favorites]
It was previously possible for me to delay healthcare for a lull in the waves and have some confidence in timing. I am now caught with several appointments that ought to have been during a relatively safe period for me to be indoors around sick people instead falling at a time when there’s as much Covid circulating in my community as November last year. I got half has many necessary medical appointments done in the time available because it was so short. And now we have fourth of July numbers starting their peak on an already high plateau, which basically guarantees that there will be no dip before in person school starts. Which then leads into the November/December holiday season of doom. Which means that the next time I have a vague hope of a safe period for an in person procedure where I have to take off my mask is *maybe* March. If I’m lucky and we actually have a sharp down slope like we did this year.
It’s JULY and I’m rebooking appointments for MARCH next year. I’m counting the next seven months as a loss. Because people think that they’re somehow doing me a favor by getting sick and getting the wave over faster?
And because of the trailing strain on health systems, the reverberations of those waves often doesn’t start impacting me until after most people are well. Because that’s when suddenly all my imaging and complex procedures get rescheduled and pushed for people who are in freefall crisis because hospitalization and death is a lagging indicator. So, I can’t go out while everyone is sick and when everyone is “well” the people who are in the ICU take precedence and my procedures get pushed back into … the middle of the next wave. Elective surgery is still canceled where I am. And elective merely means “scheduled in advance.” A friend had to wait until their gallbladder had actually ruptured for surgery because it was “elective” until then.
So yes, it’s actually quite an insane thing to say that I ought to be thankful people are out there getting sick. I look at the charts since 2020 and I see the windows for getting medical care getting shorter and shorter because the waves are getting closer and closer together.
TWiV used to be a wonderful source of information, and then they decided that a mass disabeling event didn’t matter. It was horrifying - still is - to be a disabled listener and have that slide happen in real time. One of their own hosts is clearly suffering from Covid induced brain fog and every week they dismiss “fatigue” as no big deal. They’ve decided people like me *don’t exist.* The primary host of the shown doesn’t believe there are disabled college students in his classes and that he shouldn’t have to mask indoors to protect them. They are not uninterested reporters. They began having a very clear and pointed agenda the moment it became clear a third shot would be necessary and they have doubled down on their position, even after getting the third shot. They pretty consistently pick minority view points and ignore their own internal logic.
As they say “no one is safe until everyone is safe.” I AM NOT SAFE and neither are other people with preexisting conditions. But they’re perfectly happy to discuss at length how bodies like mine are incubators that create variants without ever drawing the conclusion that people like me are worth protecting.
posted by Bottlecap at 11:21 PM on July 10, 2022 [22 favorites]
Grateful people are getting sick still, uh no. Absolutely bonkers. And what will the population be like after?
If 1 in 5 Covid-19 infections results in long Covid and true infections are seven times higher than reported, the number of people with long Covid could be growing by 100,000 each day.
posted by tiny frying pan at 6:09 AM on July 11, 2022 [5 favorites]
If 1 in 5 Covid-19 infections results in long Covid and true infections are seven times higher than reported, the number of people with long Covid could be growing by 100,000 each day.
posted by tiny frying pan at 6:09 AM on July 11, 2022 [5 favorites]
If 1 in 5 Covid-19 infections results in long Covid...
I think part of the issue is that it's hard for people to actually *believe* that ratio. Like, deep down, even though I think I believe in the science, I still catch myself not accepting how terrible the implications of that ratio are.
posted by Flight Hardware, do not touch at 7:02 AM on July 11, 2022 [7 favorites]
I think part of the issue is that it's hard for people to actually *believe* that ratio. Like, deep down, even though I think I believe in the science, I still catch myself not accepting how terrible the implications of that ratio are.
posted by Flight Hardware, do not touch at 7:02 AM on July 11, 2022 [7 favorites]
It was previously possible for me to delay healthcare for a lull in the waves and have some confidence in timing...
And as for this issue, I'm having the same issue just with getting a dental check-up. I'm sure they'll find cavities (thank you crappy genes), but I have no clue anymore when to call it a nadir in the cases. New Jersey just started back up again, just like NY curves in that article. Not sure when I can ever time going on a plane to see my parents either.
posted by Flight Hardware, do not touch at 7:12 AM on July 11, 2022 [3 favorites]
And as for this issue, I'm having the same issue just with getting a dental check-up. I'm sure they'll find cavities (thank you crappy genes), but I have no clue anymore when to call it a nadir in the cases. New Jersey just started back up again, just like NY curves in that article. Not sure when I can ever time going on a plane to see my parents either.
posted by Flight Hardware, do not touch at 7:12 AM on July 11, 2022 [3 favorites]
The long-Covid stuff is hard to pin down -- we've heard about it extensively since early on in the pandemic, but it's not showing up in the disability claims (in the US at least), in surveys, or in health care usage.
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2022/06/long-covid-chronic-illness-disability/661285/
"In short, here’s what we can say right now: Disability rates might be rising, but only by a little bit; the health-care system seems to be coping; deaths from post-COVID complications aren’t mounting; and the labor force is holding up. Long COVID, in other words, isn’t yet standing out amid the pandemic’s other social upheavals."
The article is framed as "Of course long Covid is a disaster, why isn't it showing up in the numbers" but the numbers are pretty clear that long Covid isn't a major issue (yet).
posted by Galvanic at 7:18 AM on July 11, 2022 [1 favorite]
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2022/06/long-covid-chronic-illness-disability/661285/
"In short, here’s what we can say right now: Disability rates might be rising, but only by a little bit; the health-care system seems to be coping; deaths from post-COVID complications aren’t mounting; and the labor force is holding up. Long COVID, in other words, isn’t yet standing out amid the pandemic’s other social upheavals."
The article is framed as "Of course long Covid is a disaster, why isn't it showing up in the numbers" but the numbers are pretty clear that long Covid isn't a major issue (yet).
posted by Galvanic at 7:18 AM on July 11, 2022 [1 favorite]
Not a major issue?!?!?
posted by tiny frying pan at 7:28 AM on July 11, 2022 [6 favorites]
posted by tiny frying pan at 7:28 AM on July 11, 2022 [6 favorites]
Not a major issue?!?!?
'major' as defined by impact to the labor force. I think we need to be careful about using labor numbers as a metric. There are plenty of people not in the labor force, and we're supposed to care about them too.
posted by Flight Hardware, do not touch at 7:33 AM on July 11, 2022 [1 favorite]
'major' as defined by impact to the labor force. I think we need to be careful about using labor numbers as a metric. There are plenty of people not in the labor force, and we're supposed to care about them too.
posted by Flight Hardware, do not touch at 7:33 AM on July 11, 2022 [1 favorite]
Impact to the labor force doesn't even cross my mind when thinking about long covid. Thinking about people's lives.
posted by tiny frying pan at 7:39 AM on July 11, 2022 [7 favorites]
posted by tiny frying pan at 7:39 AM on July 11, 2022 [7 favorites]
Not a major issue?!?!?
Yes, not a major issue -- or as major an issue as the 1 in 5 number makes it appear. And no, it's not the impact to the labor force that I'm talking about here -- one of the measures in the Atlantic article goes in that direction but many of them don't, and the larger point is that the indicators where we should see big jumps if millions upon millions of people have debilitating long Covid are either essentially flat or declining.
The big UK survey on long Covid, using about as generous a definition as possible (any symptoms remaining four weeks after covid) pegs the number there as about 1 in 26. That's still bad, but not nearly so as the 1 in 5.
posted by Galvanic at 8:06 AM on July 11, 2022 [3 favorites]
Yes, not a major issue -- or as major an issue as the 1 in 5 number makes it appear. And no, it's not the impact to the labor force that I'm talking about here -- one of the measures in the Atlantic article goes in that direction but many of them don't, and the larger point is that the indicators where we should see big jumps if millions upon millions of people have debilitating long Covid are either essentially flat or declining.
The big UK survey on long Covid, using about as generous a definition as possible (any symptoms remaining four weeks after covid) pegs the number there as about 1 in 26. That's still bad, but not nearly so as the 1 in 5.
posted by Galvanic at 8:06 AM on July 11, 2022 [3 favorites]
People can't even be diagnosed with long covid right now even though they know they have it, so clearly completely inaccurate as far as numbers go.
posted by tiny frying pan at 8:21 AM on July 11, 2022
posted by tiny frying pan at 8:21 AM on July 11, 2022
People can't even be diagnosed with long covid right now even though they know they have it, so clearly completely inaccurate as far as numbers go.
The example I just gave is a survey where people are asked if they have it. I would think that if they knew they have it, they would answer yes.
posted by Galvanic at 8:30 AM on July 11, 2022 [3 favorites]
The example I just gave is a survey where people are asked if they have it. I would think that if they knew they have it, they would answer yes.
posted by Galvanic at 8:30 AM on July 11, 2022 [3 favorites]
and the larger point is that the indicators where we should see big jumps if millions upon millions of people have debilitating long Covid are either essentially flat or declining.
If you meant larger point in the article then I didn't see that. Thought you were making your own point, which is what I was responding to.
I don't understand why numbers are comforting when we know how devastating this is. I'm tired of being treated here like being concerned and alarmed about covid is a bridge too far.
posted by tiny frying pan at 8:41 AM on July 11, 2022 [1 favorite]
If you meant larger point in the article then I didn't see that. Thought you were making your own point, which is what I was responding to.
I don't understand why numbers are comforting when we know how devastating this is. I'm tired of being treated here like being concerned and alarmed about covid is a bridge too far.
posted by tiny frying pan at 8:41 AM on July 11, 2022 [1 favorite]
debilitating long Covid
One of my big concerns is where that line of 'debilitating' is. Do we know how many people don't know they have it? How many think being short of breath is the new normal? I really don't want to roll those dice. That's a lot, lot higher number than the mortality dice, even if it's 1 in 26. 1 on 26 of losing breath capacity or having big energy problems? That's terrifying.
posted by Flight Hardware, do not touch at 8:47 AM on July 11, 2022 [3 favorites]
One of my big concerns is where that line of 'debilitating' is. Do we know how many people don't know they have it? How many think being short of breath is the new normal? I really don't want to roll those dice. That's a lot, lot higher number than the mortality dice, even if it's 1 in 26. 1 on 26 of losing breath capacity or having big energy problems? That's terrifying.
posted by Flight Hardware, do not touch at 8:47 AM on July 11, 2022 [3 favorites]
please read the actual essay up to the penultimate paragraph where he discusses risk compensation
Thanks, I had actually read it and was disagreeing with him, not failing to understand you or him. (Maybe you should re-read my post, in which I clearly drew a distinction between his positions and NYT reporting.) The link in the STAT essay is about crude rates of infection among the boosted; there is zero actual evidence that this is actually because of risk compensation, as opposed to for example confounding by age (unboosted people are massively likely to be younger, and Covid outcomes are tens to hundreds of times worse in the elderly).
Risk compensation rarely actually means that a benefit from a safety tool is fully negated, much less reversed. When people actually study it what they typically find is that the risk is merely less attenuated than predicted. Yet I remember this concept being used, for example, to argue against masking in the beginning of the pandemic — again without any evidence that this would happen.
posted by en forme de poire at 8:49 AM on July 11, 2022 [1 favorite]
Thanks, I had actually read it and was disagreeing with him, not failing to understand you or him. (Maybe you should re-read my post, in which I clearly drew a distinction between his positions and NYT reporting.) The link in the STAT essay is about crude rates of infection among the boosted; there is zero actual evidence that this is actually because of risk compensation, as opposed to for example confounding by age (unboosted people are massively likely to be younger, and Covid outcomes are tens to hundreds of times worse in the elderly).
Risk compensation rarely actually means that a benefit from a safety tool is fully negated, much less reversed. When people actually study it what they typically find is that the risk is merely less attenuated than predicted. Yet I remember this concept being used, for example, to argue against masking in the beginning of the pandemic — again without any evidence that this would happen.
posted by en forme de poire at 8:49 AM on July 11, 2022 [1 favorite]
I don't understand why numbers are comforting when we know how devastating this is
Because 1 in 26 is massively better than 1 in 5. And given the flat line of the indicators, there's a substantial chance that long Covid isn't a widespread problem at all. I find that possibility comforting.
1 on 26 of losing breath capacity or having big energy problems?
But here's the other issue -- the question is only about *any* symptoms after four weeks. So we have no idea what the range of seriousness is. People with a bit of a cough after four weeks are being counted the same as people with serious breathing issues, but the assumption has been that they're all the latter. Given the flatness of numbers on things like the health care system burden, my guess is that the vast majority of symptoms are minor at worst. My neighbor fits the definition of long Covid. Her symptom? One of her pinkies has been a bit wonky since she had Covid -- a little bit harder to bend than it should be. That's definitely not good, but it's also not devastating. Obviously, this is an anecdote but the stats data we have suggests that more folks are like her than the horror stories.
posted by Galvanic at 9:03 AM on July 11, 2022 [2 favorites]
Because 1 in 26 is massively better than 1 in 5. And given the flat line of the indicators, there's a substantial chance that long Covid isn't a widespread problem at all. I find that possibility comforting.
1 on 26 of losing breath capacity or having big energy problems?
But here's the other issue -- the question is only about *any* symptoms after four weeks. So we have no idea what the range of seriousness is. People with a bit of a cough after four weeks are being counted the same as people with serious breathing issues, but the assumption has been that they're all the latter. Given the flatness of numbers on things like the health care system burden, my guess is that the vast majority of symptoms are minor at worst. My neighbor fits the definition of long Covid. Her symptom? One of her pinkies has been a bit wonky since she had Covid -- a little bit harder to bend than it should be. That's definitely not good, but it's also not devastating. Obviously, this is an anecdote but the stats data we have suggests that more folks are like her than the horror stories.
posted by Galvanic at 9:03 AM on July 11, 2022 [2 favorites]
Because 1 in 26 is massively better than 1 in 5. And given the flat line of the indicators, there's a substantial chance that long Covid isn't a widespread problem at all.I think this doesn't do justice to the numbers. As this WaPo op-ed* from a doctor who served on the Biden-Harris COVID advisory board notes, even assuming a lower, 3% incidence of long COVID with vaccination, "that is not rare":
I am not a worrywart. I am happy to take plenty of risks — maybe too many, according to my family. I ride an electric motorcycle, for which the chance of dying is 1 in 100,000. Dying in a car accident is about 1 in 16,000 over a normal year.
But a 1-in-33 chance (or a 3 percent rate of long COVID) of brain fog, debilitating fatigue, shortness of breath or any of the other serious post-COVID symptoms is way too high for me to forgo unobtrusive precautions.
Consider that just last week, the Food and Drug Administration restricted the use of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine because of 60 cases of a blood-clotting syndrome and nine deaths among nearly 19 million doses. That is a 1-in-300,000 chance of the blood-clotting syndrome and a 1-in-2-million risk of death. Similarly, the risk of myocarditis in young adult males from the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines — the cause of much alarm — is about 1 in 15,000 and 1 in 4,000, respectively. The risk of long COVID is far greater than any of these outcomes.
Basically, we just don't yet know enough, so caution is warranted.
*archive link here, if I did it right
posted by pwe at 9:20 AM on July 11, 2022 [2 favorites]
I ride an electric motorcycle, for which the chance of dying is 1 in 100,000. Dying in a car accident is about 1 in 16,000 over a normal year.
But a 1-in-33 chance (or a 3 percent rate of long COVID) of brain fog, debilitating fatigue, shortness of breath or any of the other serious post-COVID symptoms is way too high for me to forgo unobtrusive precautions.
But this is where the spectrum of long Covid symptoms comes in -- the sense I'm getting from the stats is that there's a broad range of severity, with lots of people having only minor long Covid symptoms. And that makes the comparison to motorcycle & car accidents instructive. Not every one of those ends in death -- lots are extremely minor. In fact, it gets interesting because about 1% of motorcyclists in the US get in an accident per year and about 2-3% of car drivers, but most of those accidents only result in property damage. Very few in death. The occurrence numbers are actually pretty close to the 3% long Covid number. The doc in the op-ed is willing to take similar risks to the long-Covid risk because he knows that the most severe result is much more unlikely. I don't think it's unreasonable to look at long-Covid the same way.
Basically, we just don't yet know enough, so caution is warranted
Of course, though now we're stuck with the fact that people have different ideas of what "caution" means.
posted by Galvanic at 9:58 AM on July 11, 2022 [3 favorites]
But a 1-in-33 chance (or a 3 percent rate of long COVID) of brain fog, debilitating fatigue, shortness of breath or any of the other serious post-COVID symptoms is way too high for me to forgo unobtrusive precautions.
But this is where the spectrum of long Covid symptoms comes in -- the sense I'm getting from the stats is that there's a broad range of severity, with lots of people having only minor long Covid symptoms. And that makes the comparison to motorcycle & car accidents instructive. Not every one of those ends in death -- lots are extremely minor. In fact, it gets interesting because about 1% of motorcyclists in the US get in an accident per year and about 2-3% of car drivers, but most of those accidents only result in property damage. Very few in death. The occurrence numbers are actually pretty close to the 3% long Covid number. The doc in the op-ed is willing to take similar risks to the long-Covid risk because he knows that the most severe result is much more unlikely. I don't think it's unreasonable to look at long-Covid the same way.
Basically, we just don't yet know enough, so caution is warranted
Of course, though now we're stuck with the fact that people have different ideas of what "caution" means.
posted by Galvanic at 9:58 AM on July 11, 2022 [3 favorites]
Total derail, but motorcycles deaths per year are a weird comparison to make when the per million miles travelled fatalities are ~30 for motorcycles (from a low of ~21 in 2009 I think) and ~1.33 for cars. Not even sure where that doc got those stats.
Unless we drastically shorten the vaccination approval duration, we're stuck with endemic COVID forever, masks or not. Probably at this point we're stuck with almost every new disease that comes along until we get something that kills a double digit percentage of the population every year.
posted by BrotherCaine at 10:40 AM on July 11, 2022 [1 favorite]
Unless we drastically shorten the vaccination approval duration, we're stuck with endemic COVID forever, masks or not. Probably at this point we're stuck with almost every new disease that comes along until we get something that kills a double digit percentage of the population every year.
posted by BrotherCaine at 10:40 AM on July 11, 2022 [1 favorite]
Whoops, that was supposed to be per 100 million miles travelled for all those stats.
posted by BrotherCaine at 11:03 AM on July 11, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by BrotherCaine at 11:03 AM on July 11, 2022 [2 favorites]
Guess we better just give up then eh? Well I'm not because maybe none of you are aware but when you're too sick to work, the government doesn't care, and you better have some other way of getting your rent paid. I don't have one of those.
posted by bleep at 11:39 AM on July 11, 2022 [7 favorites]
posted by bleep at 11:39 AM on July 11, 2022 [7 favorites]
The point he's making (or at least that I'm making, ha) is that people hear "3% chance of long COVID" and think, "Hey, that's pretty unlikely, I'm not gonna worry," but in fact that risk is actually significantly higher than a lot of things we take for granted as dangerous, and than what we widely see as unacceptable risk in, say, medications. (Not to continue the derail, but injury in a car accident may be a better comparison than death, since it can range from minor to debilitating, like long COVID; likelihood of car-accident injuries still seems several factors of magnitude lower than 1 in 33, like 1 in 100 or more.)
Unsurprising TL;DR: People generally aren't behaving rationally in evaluating the risks of long COVID, because people are generally terrible at rationally evaluating risk and we don't know enough. Absent that knowledge, mitigation steps like masking seem reasonable to me, but YMMV.
posted by pwe at 11:42 AM on July 11, 2022 [5 favorites]
Of course, though now we're stuck with the fact that people have different ideas of what "caution" means.Sure, but I'd imagine that if people were told that wearing a mask could reduce their odds of myocarditis from a Pfizer shot from 1 in 15,000 to 1 in 2,000 (or whatever would be comparable for masking and getting long COVID), many of them would be inclined to do it.
Unsurprising TL;DR: People generally aren't behaving rationally in evaluating the risks of long COVID, because people are generally terrible at rationally evaluating risk and we don't know enough. Absent that knowledge, mitigation steps like masking seem reasonable to me, but YMMV.
posted by pwe at 11:42 AM on July 11, 2022 [5 favorites]
Masking heh. I've come to point where I'm now browsing aquarium-rated uv sterilizer lights for my cubicle.
posted by cendawanita at 12:23 PM on July 11, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by cendawanita at 12:23 PM on July 11, 2022 [2 favorites]
uv sterilizer lights
I know that you're joking, but don't forget to wear sunscreen and glasses (goggles?) with good UV filtration. Also, shadowing as a weakness of UV sterilization.
posted by porpoise at 12:32 PM on July 11, 2022
I know that you're joking, but don't forget to wear sunscreen and glasses (goggles?) with good UV filtration. Also, shadowing as a weakness of UV sterilization.
posted by porpoise at 12:32 PM on July 11, 2022
Yeah, so now I'm just going to sadly *clown noises* while i browse and also hoping i find a nice rundown kind of article that i can forward to my management towards a UVGI ceiling light set up.
posted by cendawanita at 12:41 PM on July 11, 2022
posted by cendawanita at 12:41 PM on July 11, 2022
I know that you're joking, but don't forget to wear sunscreen and glasses (goggles?) with good UV filtration
There's actually something called far-UVC that doesn't harm people but still reduces airborne pathogens. Looks quite promising:
https://www.cuimc.columbia.edu/news/new-type-ultraviolet-light-makes-indoor-air-safe-outdoors
posted by Galvanic at 12:55 PM on July 11, 2022
There's actually something called far-UVC that doesn't harm people but still reduces airborne pathogens. Looks quite promising:
https://www.cuimc.columbia.edu/news/new-type-ultraviolet-light-makes-indoor-air-safe-outdoors
posted by Galvanic at 12:55 PM on July 11, 2022
Just for context, Paul Offit was one of only two people on the relevant FDA committee to vote against updating booster shots for Omicron (a 19-2 vote) or its newer subvariants. He has been (IMHO unreasonably) anti-booster since the beginning for all but the most elderly and vulnerable groups. While I don’t blame him personally for this,
because I just found myself watching it on Youtube, here's Dr. Offit (who does know a thing or two about this stuff) discussing his position in detail with the occasionally annoying Dr. Zubin Damania
"I'll start from the beginning. In October-November of 2019, a bat coronavirus made its debut in the human population ... "
Good stuff, if only for a succinct recap of the Covid-19 story so far ...
posted by philip-random at 1:01 PM on July 11, 2022 [2 favorites]
because I just found myself watching it on Youtube, here's Dr. Offit (who does know a thing or two about this stuff) discussing his position in detail with the occasionally annoying Dr. Zubin Damania
"I'll start from the beginning. In October-November of 2019, a bat coronavirus made its debut in the human population ... "
Good stuff, if only for a succinct recap of the Covid-19 story so far ...
posted by philip-random at 1:01 PM on July 11, 2022 [2 favorites]
There's also the element of "infections per year", in questions about "What is the actual Long COVID rate?". (and to an extent, how much of that is itself kept down by people doing some various levels of mitigation)
If it's "only" a 3% chance, but current public policy is built towards people getting 2-3 infections per year, that's still something around a 20-30% chance after 5 years. And that's assuming each chance is independent, vs. the possibility of successive infections increasing risk.
Of course, that expected infections-per-year number is going to vary dramatically on who gets the brunt of it, I have service worker friends who are more on the "get it every 2-3 months" scale, and that's horrifying.
posted by CrystalDave at 1:09 PM on July 11, 2022 [2 favorites]
If it's "only" a 3% chance, but current public policy is built towards people getting 2-3 infections per year, that's still something around a 20-30% chance after 5 years. And that's assuming each chance is independent, vs. the possibility of successive infections increasing risk.
Of course, that expected infections-per-year number is going to vary dramatically on who gets the brunt of it, I have service worker friends who are more on the "get it every 2-3 months" scale, and that's horrifying.
posted by CrystalDave at 1:09 PM on July 11, 2022 [2 favorites]
Putting UV lights in HVAC systems/ducts is a thing.
https://nrs.vegas/blog/air-conditioners/fda-talks-about-hvac-uvc-lights-for-coronavirus-inactivation
posted by BrotherCaine at 1:28 PM on July 11, 2022 [1 favorite]
https://nrs.vegas/blog/air-conditioners/fda-talks-about-hvac-uvc-lights-for-coronavirus-inactivation
posted by BrotherCaine at 1:28 PM on July 11, 2022 [1 favorite]
🚨 New Ed Yong article at the Atlantic on BA.5 🚨
posted by gwint at 1:32 PM on July 11, 2022 [8 favorites]
posted by gwint at 1:32 PM on July 11, 2022 [8 favorites]
^ I noticed a mistake though.
About 70 percent of those who currently have COVID in England are first-timers, even though they account for just 15 percent of the country’s population.
The linked source (MRC) actually means cumulative infections, not current infections. For current infections, it will not be as high as 70 percent.
One clue is that it's taken from the "interpretation" section of the full report, but there's nothing else to take it from - no graph or table.
Instead, it must be calculated as:
(England population * attack rate) / (cumulative infections)
Attack rate = 84.8%
England population = ~56M
=> Number of people with at least one infection = 47.6M
Cumulative infections = 67.7M
=> Number of infections which are re-infections = 67.7M - 47.6M = 20.1M
=> Percentage of infections which are re-infections = 20.1M / 67.7M = 30%
posted by sourcejedi at 2:10 PM on July 11, 2022
About 70 percent of those who currently have COVID in England are first-timers, even though they account for just 15 percent of the country’s population.
The linked source (MRC) actually means cumulative infections, not current infections. For current infections, it will not be as high as 70 percent.
One clue is that it's taken from the "interpretation" section of the full report, but there's nothing else to take it from - no graph or table.
Instead, it must be calculated as:
(England population * attack rate) / (cumulative infections)
Attack rate = 84.8%
England population = ~56M
=> Number of people with at least one infection = 47.6M
Cumulative infections = 67.7M
=> Number of infections which are re-infections = 67.7M - 47.6M = 20.1M
=> Percentage of infections which are re-infections = 20.1M / 67.7M = 30%
posted by sourcejedi at 2:10 PM on July 11, 2022
I was just tweeting about the same claim about re-infections!
I don't think MRC actually mean 30% of cumulative infections are re-infections though, because they started saying about 30% in February and then recently switched to over 30%. It definitely wasn't the case that 30% of all cumulative infections were re-infections in February. The language is pretty clear that they mean current infections ("Over 30% of all infections now are re-infections").
I think they just don't really have a good estimate and are saying it must be over 30%.
posted by ssg at 2:18 PM on July 11, 2022
I don't think MRC actually mean 30% of cumulative infections are re-infections though, because they started saying about 30% in February and then recently switched to over 30%. It definitely wasn't the case that 30% of all cumulative infections were re-infections in February. The language is pretty clear that they mean current infections ("Over 30% of all infections now are re-infections").
I think they just don't really have a good estimate and are saying it must be over 30%.
posted by ssg at 2:18 PM on July 11, 2022
I think the numbers still work out right?
MRC February report. 56M * 51.8% / 41.7M = 70%.
MRC April report. 56M * 77.0% / 60.5M = 71%.
Quote: "almost 30% of all infections are re-infections"
posted by sourcejedi at 3:04 PM on July 11, 2022
MRC February report. 56M * 51.8% / 41.7M = 70%.
MRC April report. 56M * 77.0% / 60.5M = 71%.
Quote: "almost 30% of all infections are re-infections"
posted by sourcejedi at 3:04 PM on July 11, 2022
Maybe that is what they mean. That's kind of damning for their model though, because in the real world the proportion of re-infections definitely went up significantly between Feb and now. How could it not have?
Worth noting that the ONS estimate of attack rate on Feb 11 was 71% (and that's only since late April 2020, so probably closer to 75% overall), while MRC has 52% on Feb 23. I trust the ONS's data a lot more than the MRC model, which has been wrong in many ways over the last two years and clearly isn't right about re-infections.
posted by ssg at 3:23 PM on July 11, 2022
Worth noting that the ONS estimate of attack rate on Feb 11 was 71% (and that's only since late April 2020, so probably closer to 75% overall), while MRC has 52% on Feb 23. I trust the ONS's data a lot more than the MRC model, which has been wrong in many ways over the last two years and clearly isn't right about re-infections.
posted by ssg at 3:23 PM on July 11, 2022
loquacious, this sounds a lot like what people call post-exertional malaise (PEM), which is a common pattern in Long Covid (and ME/CFS, which is very similar to many Long Covid cases).
Yeah, I'm definitely experiencing this and was putting it aside as it's own thing because I'm pretty familiar with this cycle, now. Some days I feel mostly ok and I try to get exercise or do normal things and it ends up putting me back down again for multiple days.
It's really difficult to compartmentalize or discern any of these things because we don't know enough about it yet, but I was specifically trying to talk about having flare ups of certain non-fatigue related symptoms after going out in public and being around too many people.
Again, this is just my anecdotal intuition but there seems to be something going on here with this that would make sense as if I was fighting off a low grade exposure or infection not unlike being exposed to someone with a cold or flu and ending up with a low viral load that doesn't develop into a more acute case of a cold or a flu.
But instead of getting mild cold symptoms I'm getting flare ups of the weird neurological side effects like brain fog, altered sense of taste or smell or sudden spikes of metallic tastes even without exertion or PEM/CFS stuff.
posted by loquacious at 6:05 PM on July 11, 2022 [2 favorites]
Yeah, I'm definitely experiencing this and was putting it aside as it's own thing because I'm pretty familiar with this cycle, now. Some days I feel mostly ok and I try to get exercise or do normal things and it ends up putting me back down again for multiple days.
It's really difficult to compartmentalize or discern any of these things because we don't know enough about it yet, but I was specifically trying to talk about having flare ups of certain non-fatigue related symptoms after going out in public and being around too many people.
Again, this is just my anecdotal intuition but there seems to be something going on here with this that would make sense as if I was fighting off a low grade exposure or infection not unlike being exposed to someone with a cold or flu and ending up with a low viral load that doesn't develop into a more acute case of a cold or a flu.
But instead of getting mild cold symptoms I'm getting flare ups of the weird neurological side effects like brain fog, altered sense of taste or smell or sudden spikes of metallic tastes even without exertion or PEM/CFS stuff.
posted by loquacious at 6:05 PM on July 11, 2022 [2 favorites]
Hey loquacious, not to totally derail, but does your recent bloodwork look okay?
posted by mochapickle at 6:11 PM on July 11, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by mochapickle at 6:11 PM on July 11, 2022 [1 favorite]
Hey loquacious, not to totally derail, but does your recent bloodwork look okay?
Yep, I've been through a whole battery of tests including comprehensive bloodwork, thyroid, diabetes screening,a sleep medicine doc, etc. Next up is seeing a neurologist.
At this point I'm basically just trying to live with and come to terms with the idea it's not going to get any better and that I'm either permanently or temporarily disabled and get an official ruling or diagnosis about that so I can try to get help for rent so I can survive, hopefully before there's a stampede of other people doing the same thing and the excrement really hits the air conditioning.
posted by loquacious at 6:40 PM on July 11, 2022 [9 favorites]
Yep, I've been through a whole battery of tests including comprehensive bloodwork, thyroid, diabetes screening,a sleep medicine doc, etc. Next up is seeing a neurologist.
At this point I'm basically just trying to live with and come to terms with the idea it's not going to get any better and that I'm either permanently or temporarily disabled and get an official ruling or diagnosis about that so I can try to get help for rent so I can survive, hopefully before there's a stampede of other people doing the same thing and the excrement really hits the air conditioning.
posted by loquacious at 6:40 PM on July 11, 2022 [9 favorites]
But instead of getting mild cold symptoms I'm getting flare ups of the weird neurological side effects like brain fog, altered sense of taste or smell or sudden spikes of metallic tastes even without exertion or PEM/CFS stuff.
You know your body, but as someone with ME/CFS I can say that all kinds of weird symptoms can be part of PEM: brain fog, aching joints, gut problems, balance issues, getting lightheaded when you stand up, changed perception of food, etc — and that's just from personal experience, people have all kinds of symptoms. It really feels like being sick with a flu for a lot of us. It's not just fatigue. I have definitely thought to myself that I was coming down with something many times that I later realized were PEM.
posted by ssg at 8:19 PM on July 11, 2022 [3 favorites]
You know your body, but as someone with ME/CFS I can say that all kinds of weird symptoms can be part of PEM: brain fog, aching joints, gut problems, balance issues, getting lightheaded when you stand up, changed perception of food, etc — and that's just from personal experience, people have all kinds of symptoms. It really feels like being sick with a flu for a lot of us. It's not just fatigue. I have definitely thought to myself that I was coming down with something many times that I later realized were PEM.
posted by ssg at 8:19 PM on July 11, 2022 [3 favorites]
people have different ideas of what “caution” means.
People have different values.
For example, some of us value everyone, including those who are at high risk for severe complications, not just the statistical average person. In practice, this looks like promoting more caution that would strictly be necessary for the average person. It is not a different definition of “caution”, however; it is a different value.
For another example, some of us value reading the full comment of other Mefites and not selectively quoting subsets to double down on our previous comments.
It’s unclear to me where you stand on the former, based on your comments so far in this thread. (I do mean that in a non-snarky way as I do indeed believe that you might value high risks folks equally, I just don’t have enough information about your values to assess that.) Though clearly the latter is not a strong value for you. (I’ll leave an assessment of whether or not this extends to your quoting from and commenting about the linked articles as an exercise for the reader.)
posted by eviemath at 5:02 AM on July 12, 2022 [5 favorites]
People have different values.
For example, some of us value everyone, including those who are at high risk for severe complications, not just the statistical average person. In practice, this looks like promoting more caution that would strictly be necessary for the average person. It is not a different definition of “caution”, however; it is a different value.
For another example, some of us value reading the full comment of other Mefites and not selectively quoting subsets to double down on our previous comments.
It’s unclear to me where you stand on the former, based on your comments so far in this thread. (I do mean that in a non-snarky way as I do indeed believe that you might value high risks folks equally, I just don’t have enough information about your values to assess that.) Though clearly the latter is not a strong value for you. (I’ll leave an assessment of whether or not this extends to your quoting from and commenting about the linked articles as an exercise for the reader.)
posted by eviemath at 5:02 AM on July 12, 2022 [5 favorites]
International travel report: Canada does not fuck around, at least on airplanes flying into and out of Canada. While masking was almost non-existent in the Richmond, VA, airport and our connection in Newark, NJ. But masking was required on the Newark > Quebec flight and back to the US.
On the ground in Quebec, crowds were out for their summer music festival, and hardly any masks were in sight. Eek.
posted by emelenjr at 7:05 AM on July 12, 2022
On the ground in Quebec, crowds were out for their summer music festival, and hardly any masks were in sight. Eek.
posted by emelenjr at 7:05 AM on July 12, 2022
some of us
I favorited your comment because I really enjoyed the "stilted third person" construction.
posted by Galvanic at 7:06 AM on July 12, 2022
I favorited your comment because I really enjoyed the "stilted third person" construction.
posted by Galvanic at 7:06 AM on July 12, 2022
Anecdata re the dentist. Our dentist has really good covid protocols and air handling stuff and I had one appointment last year that went fine. I'm fully vaccinated and boosted though in January I got the first Omicron version (I was the only one masking in our shared laundry room and my mask was not as good as the N95 ones I have now). Fast forward to June where I go to the dentist again, and come down with another Omicron version. Friend who has successfully avoided Covid through vaccination and good masks, even when her husband had Omicron, just also went to the dentist and caught either BA.4 or BA.5 there. My take on this: good N95 and KN95 masks work, but the current Omicron variants are very transmissible, and now is probably not the time to go to the dentist or to any medical appointment or procedure you have to unmask for if you don't absolutely have to (and dentists need to rejigger their safety setups.) Sigh.
posted by gudrun at 8:21 AM on July 12, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by gudrun at 8:21 AM on July 12, 2022 [3 favorites]
Those of us who don't know that "us" is not in the third person should probably not engage in drive-by grammatical analysis.
posted by tigrrrlily at 9:17 AM on July 12, 2022
posted by tigrrrlily at 9:17 AM on July 12, 2022
really good covid protocols and air handling stuff
I wanted to comment on this and the other two air handling related comments earlier. I've worked in the area of UV decon before. The issue of how long you expose a target, and how intensely, is critical, hard to quantify, and easy to gloss over.
The UV-C news sounds really promising, though there's a part of me that can't help thinking of all those sci-fi scenes with people trapped inside deadly rooms:)
But the air handling UV systems are really suspect. You have to make sure you really get the flow and intensity matched, or it just doesn't live up to the hype. Good old fashioned HEPA filtration seems the way to go, but again, you have to deal with keeping up with flow rates.
If we as a society can manage to really spend the money to upgrade HVAC systems, we might find a way to get indoor activities safe again. But we're not right now.
I would be very cautious about whether a dental office has the right air handling. Me, I'll keep waiting for my next checkup :(
posted by Flight Hardware, do not touch at 9:20 AM on July 12, 2022 [5 favorites]
I wanted to comment on this and the other two air handling related comments earlier. I've worked in the area of UV decon before. The issue of how long you expose a target, and how intensely, is critical, hard to quantify, and easy to gloss over.
The UV-C news sounds really promising, though there's a part of me that can't help thinking of all those sci-fi scenes with people trapped inside deadly rooms:)
But the air handling UV systems are really suspect. You have to make sure you really get the flow and intensity matched, or it just doesn't live up to the hype. Good old fashioned HEPA filtration seems the way to go, but again, you have to deal with keeping up with flow rates.
If we as a society can manage to really spend the money to upgrade HVAC systems, we might find a way to get indoor activities safe again. But we're not right now.
I would be very cautious about whether a dental office has the right air handling. Me, I'll keep waiting for my next checkup :(
posted by Flight Hardware, do not touch at 9:20 AM on July 12, 2022 [5 favorites]
I don't want to get into a derail about what my particular dental office is doing, but they are not just relying on the building HVAC system, they have added additional filtration of various kinds, including HEPA filters, done a lot of air flow analysis and changes, as well as changes to the structure of their office/work spaces. They really put a lot of money and work into it, since this is their business and they want people to feel safe so they can make money, basically. They also put a lot of thought into the PPE for their staff. It seemed to worked fine last year, but with Omicron it seems they need to up their game, again.
posted by gudrun at 11:38 AM on July 12, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by gudrun at 11:38 AM on July 12, 2022 [2 favorites]
The Ed Yong / Atlantic article has been amended.
This appears to be direct from Meaghan Kall. (Although the article still links to MRC, I can't see anywhere in the MRC report that says "It’s more like 55% recent🏴infections are 1st-timers, not 70%.")
Though previous immunity has been dialed down a few notches, since BA.5 showed up, it hasn’t disappeared entirely. “We’re seeing that new infections are disproportionately people who haven’t been infected before,” Meaghan Kall, an epidemiologist at the U.K. Health Security Agency, told me. About half of those in England who have been infected in the current wave are first-timers, even though they account for just 15 percent of the country’s population. This clearly shows that although reinfections are a serious problem, the population still has some protection against catching even BA.5.
posted by sourcejedi at 12:27 PM on July 12, 2022 [3 favorites]
This appears to be direct from Meaghan Kall. (Although the article still links to MRC, I can't see anywhere in the MRC report that says "It’s more like 55% recent🏴infections are 1st-timers, not 70%.")
Though previous immunity has been dialed down a few notches, since BA.5 showed up, it hasn’t disappeared entirely. “We’re seeing that new infections are disproportionately people who haven’t been infected before,” Meaghan Kall, an epidemiologist at the U.K. Health Security Agency, told me. About half of those in England who have been infected in the current wave are first-timers, even though they account for just 15 percent of the country’s population. This clearly shows that although reinfections are a serious problem, the population still has some protection against catching even BA.5.
posted by sourcejedi at 12:27 PM on July 12, 2022 [3 favorites]
Meaghan Kall: I can confirm that Cambridge estimate is 30% of *cumulative* infections to date
The wording is a bit ambiguous (they will clarify at next update!) but it was then possible to est recent reinfection % from Δ of total infections + attack rate since last update.
posted by sourcejedi at 12:33 PM on July 12, 2022 [1 favorite]
The wording is a bit ambiguous (they will clarify at next update!) but it was then possible to est recent reinfection % from Δ of total infections + attack rate since last update.
posted by sourcejedi at 12:33 PM on July 12, 2022 [1 favorite]
Considering these same estimates put the number of people who’ve already had COVID at 70 percent or above, you’d expect most infections to be reinfections, or at least a good amount of them….
posted by eagles123 at 1:08 PM on July 12, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by eagles123 at 1:08 PM on July 12, 2022 [1 favorite]
I guess I have to accept it as inevitable that I will eventually get it, and likely suffer the effects of long covid. It's disheartening to see so many people just give up on reasonable precautions (I know, the fatigue is real), but man, I don't like what it means for the most vulnerable populations among us. I'm just glad I'm no longer caring for my elderly grandmother, because I don't know how I would've lived with myself if I'd given it to her.
posted by Eideteker at 9:19 AM on July 13, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by Eideteker at 9:19 AM on July 13, 2022 [4 favorites]
I've said it before and I will say it again.
If COVID was as outwardly disfiguring as smallpox or leprosy, people would mask and vaccinate religiously.
posted by The Adventure Begins at 3:57 AM on July 15, 2022 [7 favorites]
If COVID was as outwardly disfiguring as smallpox or leprosy, people would mask and vaccinate religiously.
posted by The Adventure Begins at 3:57 AM on July 15, 2022 [7 favorites]
Every single possible thing that can get worse with covid gets worse. At >this point I kinda expect it will eventually make body parts fall off.
posted by jenfullmoon at 4:33 AM on July 15, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by jenfullmoon at 4:33 AM on July 15, 2022 [1 favorite]
If COVID was as outwardly disfiguring as smallpox or leprosy, people would mask and vaccinate religiously.
I think there was an unspoken agreement, if not tacit conspiracy between the Trump government and the mainstream media to hide Covid patients away from any real news coverage.
It's like the avoidance to show the consequences of gun violence, to hide the destroyed bodies of children who are victims of gun owners — like not showing nurses in garbage bags for lack of PPE, not showing patients choking to death hooked up to ventilators, not showing families unable to speak to loved ones who are in their last moments.
If we showed the consequences of the decisions we make, there would be changes. Instead, we're all directed to look the other way, and most of us go along with that.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 12:17 PM on July 16, 2022 [2 favorites]
I think there was an unspoken agreement, if not tacit conspiracy between the Trump government and the mainstream media to hide Covid patients away from any real news coverage.
It's like the avoidance to show the consequences of gun violence, to hide the destroyed bodies of children who are victims of gun owners — like not showing nurses in garbage bags for lack of PPE, not showing patients choking to death hooked up to ventilators, not showing families unable to speak to loved ones who are in their last moments.
If we showed the consequences of the decisions we make, there would be changes. Instead, we're all directed to look the other way, and most of us go along with that.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 12:17 PM on July 16, 2022 [2 favorites]
> I don’t even know where to start on evaluating whether the HVAC system in our 110-year-old building is turning over their air enough times, but I’m pretty sure I can’t afford to find out and am even more sure I couldn’t afford to fix it.
CO2 levels are a reasonable proxy for fresh (outdoor) air turnover. A closed HVAC system with no ERV or HRV could be filtering virons but might not show CO2 going down when the air is moving, though.
I got a (Swift on Security recommended) Hydrofarm APCEM2 Autopilot Desktop CO2 Monitor & Data Logger for $100, but it needs to be plugged into a USB power adapter or battery power bank thing. The one I see people taking on airplanes, SAF Aranet4, is $250 but runs on 2x AA.
posted by ASCII Costanza head at 2:50 PM on July 16, 2022
CO2 levels are a reasonable proxy for fresh (outdoor) air turnover. A closed HVAC system with no ERV or HRV could be filtering virons but might not show CO2 going down when the air is moving, though.
I got a (Swift on Security recommended) Hydrofarm APCEM2 Autopilot Desktop CO2 Monitor & Data Logger for $100, but it needs to be plugged into a USB power adapter or battery power bank thing. The one I see people taking on airplanes, SAF Aranet4, is $250 but runs on 2x AA.
posted by ASCII Costanza head at 2:50 PM on July 16, 2022
Considering the total theoretical power that a couple of AA batteries can provide, I am very skeptical that the UV output is sufficient to be useful.
posted by porpoise at 6:21 PM on July 16, 2022
posted by porpoise at 6:21 PM on July 16, 2022
Considering the total theoretical power that a couple of AA batteries can provide, I am very skeptical that the UV output is sufficient to be useful.
If you are referring to the thing mentioned in the next comment above, it's a CO2 monitor, not a UV device.
posted by Dip Flash at 8:33 PM on July 16, 2022
If you are referring to the thing mentioned in the next comment above, it's a CO2 monitor, not a UV device.
posted by Dip Flash at 8:33 PM on July 16, 2022
You Are Not Entitled To Our Deaths: COVID, Abled Supremacy & Interdependence
The solution cannot be that everyone has to get COVID. That is eugenics because many disabled high risk people will die and those who do not die will have serious complications and lifelong impacts to their health and wellbeing via COVID and the possibility of long COVID. Do not buy into this eugenic thinking that expects the most vulnerable to be sacrificed. Long Covid is real and it can happen to anyone.posted by eviemath at 2:37 PM on July 17, 2022 [4 favorites]
This pandemic will create millions more disabled people with chronic illnesses. Are we ready for what is coming next? Are we prepared for how many more disabled people with chronic health conditions there will be? Are we ready for how that will and should necessarily shift our movements and political work? Or are we going to continue to shut out disability and disabled people from movements and communities? Are we going to continue to not include ableism and abled supremacy in our liberation work?
If there was ever a time to be in solidarity with disabled people, it is now. It has been through this entire pandemic. This is about what you can do now. Now is the time to recalibrate, to get (back) in alignment with your values. We don’t need your apologies, we don’t have time for that, we just need you to do better. If you are abled, talk to other abled people. Because of ableism they will be more open to hearing it from you than from us. Help to educate them. Do not participate in upholding abled supremacy. Unlearn everything that doesn’t serve interdependence.
Some slightly more optimistic news on growing COVID immunity via T-cells rather than antibodies.
posted by derrinyet at 2:00 PM on July 18, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by derrinyet at 2:00 PM on July 18, 2022 [1 favorite]
Those of us who don't know that "us" is not in the third person should probably not engage in drive-by grammatical analysis.
It fits with the general level of functional incomprehension in this thread.
posted by Galvanic at 3:11 PM on July 22, 2022
It fits with the general level of functional incomprehension in this thread.
posted by Galvanic at 3:11 PM on July 22, 2022
If COVID was as outwardly disfiguring as smallpox or leprosy, people would mask and vaccinate religiously.
Looks like we might find out: "WHO declares monkeypox an international public health emergency"
posted by Mitheral at 7:26 PM on July 23, 2022 [1 favorite]
Looks like we might find out: "WHO declares monkeypox an international public health emergency"
The world has seen more than 16,500 monkeypox cases so far this year in 68 countries where the disease is not endemic, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The U.S. alone has recorded more than 2,500 cases since May, though that’s almost certainly an undercount.Personally while it might have made a difference two years ago now sides have been chosen and I don't think even a massive outbreak of a visible disease is going to make a difference.
posted by Mitheral at 7:26 PM on July 23, 2022 [1 favorite]
Two of the identified US Monkeypox cases are in children; the two cases are unrelated and were likely the result of household transmission. [Monkeypox "can be transmitted through contact with bodily fluids, lesions on the skin or on internal mucosal surfaces, such as in the mouth or throat, respiratory droplets" and "contaminated objects such as bedding."] An unvaccinated adult man in Rockland County, NY contracted polio (the first US case in 9 years) and is now paralyzed.
Sticking in this news in this current Covid-related thread:
President Biden, 79, has Covid. Biden, who is fully vaccinated and twice boosted, began experiencing symptoms — a runny nose, fatigue and an occasional dry cough — Wednesday evening and tested positive Thursday morning. WH says it's a mild case, and probably the BA.5 subvariant of Omicron. VP Harris tested negative, and kept to her travel schedule; same for Mrs. Biden. Biden's self-isolating at the White House. His treatment: Paxlovid, Tylenol, and an albuterol inhaler for cough (he had asthma as a kid). Per today's Letter from Dr. Kevin O’Connor: President Biden SARS-CoV-2 Update, after three full days of Paxlovid, the President's main symptom is a sore throat.
posted by Iris Gambol at 10:09 AM on July 24, 2022 [3 favorites]
Sticking in this news in this current Covid-related thread:
President Biden, 79, has Covid. Biden, who is fully vaccinated and twice boosted, began experiencing symptoms — a runny nose, fatigue and an occasional dry cough — Wednesday evening and tested positive Thursday morning. WH says it's a mild case, and probably the BA.5 subvariant of Omicron. VP Harris tested negative, and kept to her travel schedule; same for Mrs. Biden. Biden's self-isolating at the White House. His treatment: Paxlovid, Tylenol, and an albuterol inhaler for cough (he had asthma as a kid). Per today's Letter from Dr. Kevin O’Connor: President Biden SARS-CoV-2 Update, after three full days of Paxlovid, the President's main symptom is a sore throat.
posted by Iris Gambol at 10:09 AM on July 24, 2022 [3 favorites]
saw someone on Twitter worried about the long-term butterfly-effect results of the president publicly "working through" covid, given that the current state of scientific understanding (so far as I am aware) is that the best way to avoid developing "long covid" issues like permanent disabilities is "be a lump and do nothing at all for a few weeks, and that includes avoiding any form of mental focus"
posted by DoctorFedora at 6:46 PM on July 24, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by DoctorFedora at 6:46 PM on July 24, 2022 [2 favorites]
I am also concerned on that topic. On the other hand, the president of all people cannot publicly NOT WORK unless he's utterly ill/unconscious and he probably has to present as as normal as possible, at least in the news.
posted by jenfullmoon at 9:45 PM on July 24, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by jenfullmoon at 9:45 PM on July 24, 2022 [1 favorite]
> the best way to avoid developing "long covid" issues like permanent disabilities is "be a lump and do nothing at all for a few weeks, and that includes avoiding any form of mental focus"
Do you have a good source for that? I've heard it many places and am trying to preemptively get Mr Corpse to agree to that being his plan, as he's very much a "rub some dirt on it" person. Being able to wave an article or two at him would be helpful.
posted by The corpse in the library at 7:27 AM on July 25, 2022 [2 favorites]
Do you have a good source for that? I've heard it many places and am trying to preemptively get Mr Corpse to agree to that being his plan, as he's very much a "rub some dirt on it" person. Being able to wave an article or two at him would be helpful.
posted by The corpse in the library at 7:27 AM on July 25, 2022 [2 favorites]
I am also concerned on that topic. On the other hand, the president of all people cannot publicly NOT WORK unless he's utterly ill/unconscious and he probably has to present as as normal as possible, at least in the news.
When the previous president came down with covid, it was very normal to present as normal. So normal. The normalest.
(I'd even forgotten this had happened, such is the absolute firehose of bananas times we are living in.)
posted by mochapickle at 8:45 AM on July 25, 2022 [1 favorite]
When the previous president came down with covid, it was very normal to present as normal. So normal. The normalest.
(I'd even forgotten this had happened, such is the absolute firehose of bananas times we are living in.)
posted by mochapickle at 8:45 AM on July 25, 2022 [1 favorite]
I’m almost nostalgic for those days because at least then there was the possibility of things getting better with a change of admin. How naive we were.
posted by Artw at 9:02 AM on July 25, 2022
posted by Artw at 9:02 AM on July 25, 2022
firehose of bananas
Wow. That image perfectly sums up my experience of this time in our shared human struggle. Thank you so much!
posted by Don Pepino at 9:59 AM on July 25, 2022 [1 favorite]
Wow. That image perfectly sums up my experience of this time in our shared human struggle. Thank you so much!
posted by Don Pepino at 9:59 AM on July 25, 2022 [1 favorite]
craiyon made this image and this other image of a firehose of bananas for y'all.
bonus fire hydrant spraying bananas
posted by aniola at 4:16 PM on July 25, 2022 [1 favorite]
bonus fire hydrant spraying bananas
posted by aniola at 4:16 PM on July 25, 2022 [1 favorite]
To lower your risk of severe symptoms, you might consider adopting a plant-based diet.
posted by Glinn at 5:36 PM on July 25, 2022 [3 favorites]
The doctors cite several studies showing the benefits of a plant-based diet for COVID-19. One study showed that a healthy plant-based diet was associated with a 9% lower risk of COVID-19 infection and a 41% lower risk of severe COVID-19. Another study found that health care workers following a plant-based diet who had substantial exposure to COVID-19 patients had a 73% lower risk of moderate-to-severe COVID-19.I still mask in public, along with maybe 5-8% of northern Illinois residents in my area.
posted by Glinn at 5:36 PM on July 25, 2022 [3 favorites]
From 2021, also reliant on self-reported data: A plant-based diet can protect against severe COVID, Massachusetts General research suggests; Plant-based diets, pescatarian diets and COVID-19 severity, from Stamford Hospital in Connecticut. [Glinn, the role of diet is really interesting. Your link goes to a "Physicians Committee for Responsible Medicine" presser; it's an animal rights' group, with few actual physicians, and their 2020 "study" of 32 enrollees finished with 9 participants.]
posted by Iris Gambol at 6:03 PM on July 25, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by Iris Gambol at 6:03 PM on July 25, 2022 [2 favorites]
Sorry, I didn't mean to suggest it was new reporting.
You can (dismissively?) call PCRM an animal rights group without many physicians but they claim a lot of physicians as members and I believe they are just as interested in human health as animal health. One of their primary goals is to get nutrition training to medical doctors who have historically been given very little training in this area.
posted by Glinn at 7:06 PM on July 25, 2022
You can (dismissively?) call PCRM an animal rights group without many physicians but they claim a lot of physicians as members and I believe they are just as interested in human health as animal health. One of their primary goals is to get nutrition training to medical doctors who have historically been given very little training in this area.
posted by Glinn at 7:06 PM on July 25, 2022
Their own website lists 17K physicians in a 175K membership base. There are larger studies supporting the "plant-based diet protective against Covid severity" notion, so I linked them.
posted by Iris Gambol at 7:19 PM on July 25, 2022
posted by Iris Gambol at 7:19 PM on July 25, 2022
As a fan of TWiV, the latest episode comes from ASV 2022, where they did a live episode.
I was curious: are the world's best virologists masking? Check out the images on The ASV twitter feed, which suggests some are, but most are not. I don't know what to make of this data point.
posted by soylent00FF00 at 2:48 PM on July 26, 2022
I was curious: are the world's best virologists masking? Check out the images on The ASV twitter feed, which suggests some are, but most are not. I don't know what to make of this data point.
posted by soylent00FF00 at 2:48 PM on July 26, 2022
No idea how likely this is to pan out but putting it here since it was nice to come across something hopeful:
Researchers at the Francis Crick Institute in London have discovered that a specific area of the spike protein of Sars-CoV-2 – the virus that causes Covid-19 – is a good target for a pan-coronavirus jab that could offer protection against all the Covid-19 variants and common colds.posted by trig at 1:23 PM on July 27, 2022 [3 favorites]
Scrolling through the Twitter feed what I see is that virologists are also humans who are largely willing to take off their mask for a picture. Pictures of audiences in talks and people in the background of indoor shots are almost all masked. Pictures in restaurants and outdoors, not. It’ll be interesting to see how many people pop positive (and post about it) since conferences have been major sources of spread lately.
posted by Bottlecap at 3:14 PM on July 27, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by Bottlecap at 3:14 PM on July 27, 2022 [2 favorites]
Virologists can also be remarkably ignorant about post-acute conditions — and Long Covid is the major risk for people of working age, not acute Covid.
posted by ssg at 7:30 AM on July 28, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by ssg at 7:30 AM on July 28, 2022 [3 favorites]
Pictures of audiences in talks and people in the background of indoor shots are almost all masked
Not my impression - I was taken with this one image (captioned "How do you fit 1700 virologists in a room" ) in which I only a few masks are visible.
Also, there is a major selection bias: this is a group of virologists who agreed to go to a conference in the middle of a pandemic - perhaps not a random sample? ;-)
posted by soylent00FF00 at 4:02 PM on July 28, 2022 [1 favorite]
Not my impression - I was taken with this one image (captioned "How do you fit 1700 virologists in a room" ) in which I only a few masks are visible.
Also, there is a major selection bias: this is a group of virologists who agreed to go to a conference in the middle of a pandemic - perhaps not a random sample? ;-)
posted by soylent00FF00 at 4:02 PM on July 28, 2022 [1 favorite]
Yeah, that is one I counted as restaurant. Not a talk. And like you said, heavy selection bias. Also, who tf understands what Twitter chooses to show one person vs another so probably also selection bias on the part of the algorithm picking what I’ll see vs someone else! Frankly though, I truly agree that most of the virologists studying acute phase infections seem remarkably blasé about long term impacts. Their advice has become less useful medically speaking since more has become known about the virus. I applaud and appreciate all their hard work, but also the vaccine seems to have been an end point for many of them. It prevents hospitalization and death for most people and their attitude seems to be “what more do y’all want??” (Personally, I want no microclots, and no increase in all cause mortality for the year following infection.)
posted by Bottlecap at 4:58 PM on July 28, 2022
posted by Bottlecap at 4:58 PM on July 28, 2022
Like Fauci, Biden's got a rebound case of Covid. Unlike Fauci, he won't be taking Paxlovid again. Biden tests positive for COVID-19, returns to isolation (July 30, 2022) President Joe Biden tested positive for COVID-19 again Saturday, slightly more than three days after he was cleared to exit coronavirus isolation, the White House said, in a rare case of “rebound” following treatment with an anti-viral drug. White House physician Dr. Kevin O'Connor said in a letter that Biden “has experienced no reemergence of symptoms, and continues to feel quite well.” O'Connor said “there is no reason to reinitiate treatment at this time.” [...] Both the Food and Drug Administration and Pfizer point out that 1% to 2% of people in Pfizer’s original study on Paxlovid saw their virus levels rebound after 10 days. The rate was about the same among people taking the drug or dummy pills, “so it is unclear at this point that this is related to drug treatment,” according to the FDA.
posted by Iris Gambol at 12:39 PM on July 30, 2022
posted by Iris Gambol at 12:39 PM on July 30, 2022
The Atlantic: Of Course Biden Has Rebound Covid. Article quotes various doctors saying they think the people having rebound is MUCH greater than quoted, whether or not there's any point in giving it to anyone who's vaxxed/boosted but old or young, one doctor's not even sure if he'd want it himself, etc. Whee.
posted by jenfullmoon at 8:31 PM on July 30, 2022
posted by jenfullmoon at 8:31 PM on July 30, 2022
Stark contrast to the pictures coming out of the International Aids Society meeting.
posted by Bottlecap at 8:24 PM on July 31, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Bottlecap at 8:24 PM on July 31, 2022 [1 favorite]
Biden's cough is back; he's isolating until at least Thursday (longer if he continues to test positive).
posted by Iris Gambol at 4:29 PM on August 2, 2022
posted by Iris Gambol at 4:29 PM on August 2, 2022
Biden's cough is back; he's isolating until at least Thursday (longer if he continues to test positive).
@pookleblinky:
@pookleblinky:
They don't want to just go "yeah, he's still sick, you know that you can be sick with covid for like 2 weeks right" because that'd make the CDC's 5 day policy seem ghoulish.posted by Glegrinof the Pig-Man at 4:39 PM on August 2, 2022 [7 favorites]
So they just keep going shocked pikachu that he still has covid every few days. And the hell of it is: odds are you've had covid.
You knew exactly how long you felt sick, how long it was til you tested negative. And you *know* that they're lying when they go "damn, how does he still have covid 5 days later, wtf" Odds are you know for a fact that you were still sick after 5 days. And here the white house is, lying to your fucking face in order to help keep the economy going by ensuring no one gets sick leave.
You know, with your own eyes, how long you were sick. And here's biden and the white house, pretending you were just hallucinating that you were sick longer than 5 days.
It's a miserable fucking failure of public health messaging in like 6 different ways.
Meanwhile I saw articles today somewhere (can't recall where) saying it's Biden's best week ever since he's working from home.
posted by jenfullmoon at 9:18 PM on August 2, 2022
posted by jenfullmoon at 9:18 PM on August 2, 2022
And here the white house is, lying to your fucking face in order to help keep the economy going by ensuring no one gets sick leave.
This is really dumb - why claim some vast lying conspiracy to fool us when it was already obvious the CDC policy is not based on science, and Biden having a rebound already makes that plenty clear? It's not like the CDC has been saying "you're done after 5 days but keep testing daily because that might not be accurate".
I do agree that it highlights a massive failure of public messaging, though. I know multiple people who've been sick or exposed lately and just consciously decided not to test because if it turned out to be covid they'd have to give up on stuff and isolate, and I guess they decided nobody's doing that anymore. These are all people who tested and isolated when necessary in previous years. It's an inevitable result of the constant "living with the virus" message.
posted by trig at 9:55 PM on August 2, 2022
This is really dumb - why claim some vast lying conspiracy to fool us when it was already obvious the CDC policy is not based on science, and Biden having a rebound already makes that plenty clear? It's not like the CDC has been saying "you're done after 5 days but keep testing daily because that might not be accurate".
I do agree that it highlights a massive failure of public messaging, though. I know multiple people who've been sick or exposed lately and just consciously decided not to test because if it turned out to be covid they'd have to give up on stuff and isolate, and I guess they decided nobody's doing that anymore. These are all people who tested and isolated when necessary in previous years. It's an inevitable result of the constant "living with the virus" message.
posted by trig at 9:55 PM on August 2, 2022
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Sadly, that isn't even the fault of the virus, which just plays its number games, or even the vaccine makers or scientists behind the decades of research behind the vaccines.
If humanity makes it to the 2100s, I hope those future historians reserve a place for the right-wingers who politicized the virus and who have so far killed and sickened hundreds of millions of people through their deliberate actions.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 9:15 PM on July 8, 2022 [58 favorites]