This is how San Francisco could die
May 16, 2023 7:58 PM Subscribe
Spiraling in San Francisco’s Doom Loop What it’s like to live in a city that no longer believes its problems can be fixed. Doom loop (noun) — A scenario in which one negative development causes another negative development, which then makes the first problem worse. A vicious cycle.: This is how San Francisco could die:
Interconnected forces trap the city in economic free fall: Workers remain primarily remote; office space sits empty; businesses shutter; mass transit is sharply reduced or even bankrupt, making it even harder for low- and middle-wage workers who enable restaurants and small businesses to operate, causing major budget shortfalls from declining tax revenue that imperil numerous city services, trigger mass layoffs of city workers and shred the social safety net, all of which causes more people to leave.
San Francisco officials and business groups acknowledge the possibility of a doom-loop scenario, as some economists call it, and agree that the city will struggle through an indefinite transition period. But they are optimistic the city — as it has after previous downturns — will bounce back to resemble what it was before 2020.
Interconnected forces trap the city in economic free fall: Workers remain primarily remote; office space sits empty; businesses shutter; mass transit is sharply reduced or even bankrupt, making it even harder for low- and middle-wage workers who enable restaurants and small businesses to operate, causing major budget shortfalls from declining tax revenue that imperil numerous city services, trigger mass layoffs of city workers and shred the social safety net, all of which causes more people to leave.
San Francisco officials and business groups acknowledge the possibility of a doom-loop scenario, as some economists call it, and agree that the city will struggle through an indefinite transition period. But they are optimistic the city — as it has after previous downturns — will bounce back to resemble what it was before 2020.
Nice to know Seattle isn’t the only city with hyperbolic doom articles being written about it.
Well, not exactly “nice”, but you know…
posted by Artw at 8:16 PM on May 16, 2023 [29 favorites]
Well, not exactly “nice”, but you know…
posted by Artw at 8:16 PM on May 16, 2023 [29 favorites]
Workers remain primarily remote; office space sits empty
A over a million people died in the US alone; we need to get around to mourning them before office occupancy.
The rest doesn't flow from that, it flows from ongoing wage stagnation despite inflation; and now all the Covid related relief measures expiring. Bills long put off are coming due; credit is more expensive, and unavailable if you overextended when it was cheap. Now you have to service that debt.
People would go out if they could afford to.
Pay needs to go up, but who's going to pay for it when the even the Baby Boomers can't afford their own care in retirement?
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:16 PM on May 16, 2023 [39 favorites]
A over a million people died in the US alone; we need to get around to mourning them before office occupancy.
The rest doesn't flow from that, it flows from ongoing wage stagnation despite inflation; and now all the Covid related relief measures expiring. Bills long put off are coming due; credit is more expensive, and unavailable if you overextended when it was cheap. Now you have to service that debt.
People would go out if they could afford to.
Pay needs to go up, but who's going to pay for it when the even the Baby Boomers can't afford their own care in retirement?
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:16 PM on May 16, 2023 [39 favorites]
Response piece: Stop the doom loop, I want to get off. Reports on San Francisco miss the big picture
posted by Artw at 8:29 PM on May 16, 2023 [10 favorites]
posted by Artw at 8:29 PM on May 16, 2023 [10 favorites]
Oh, and there was also this. Tech Leaders Blamed San Francisco for Bob Lee’s Killing. Then Came the Arrest.
posted by Artw at 8:49 PM on May 16, 2023 [18 favorites]
posted by Artw at 8:49 PM on May 16, 2023 [18 favorites]
Most of the "doom loop" articles seem overblown and speculative to me. That said, the NY Times had an interesting piece yesterday about how "Coastal Cities Priced Out Low-Wage Workers. Now College Graduates Are Leaving, Too."
For most of this century, large metros with a million residents or more have received all of the net gains from college-educated workers migrating around the country, at the expense of smaller places. But among those large urban areas, the dozen metros with the highest living costs — nearly all of them coastal — have had a uniquely bifurcated migration pattern: As they saw net gains from college graduates, they lost large numbers of workers without degrees.
At least, that was true until recently. Now, large, expensive metros are shedding both kinds of workers. ...
These migration patterns may also reflect the fact that many cities outside coastal America have themselves changed over the last 20 years. More of them have developed the amenities associated first with big coastal cities: revitalized downtowns, brewpubs, loft apartment conversions, diverse restaurant scenes.
“Some of it is that the most expensive places got really expensive,” Rebecca Diamond, a Stanford economist, said of shifting migration patterns. “But also, the middle-tier places became more attractive.”
I'm in this category -- we left a major coastal metro area to move to a smaller, non-coastal place where we haven't given up almost any amenities, but with lower costs of living and less hassle (like traffic). If this trend were to accelerate, eventually some of the coastal cities would need to address the "push" factors that are causing people to leave, but right now we are a long way from this being a crises for any of those places.
posted by Dip Flash at 8:53 PM on May 16, 2023 [15 favorites]
For most of this century, large metros with a million residents or more have received all of the net gains from college-educated workers migrating around the country, at the expense of smaller places. But among those large urban areas, the dozen metros with the highest living costs — nearly all of them coastal — have had a uniquely bifurcated migration pattern: As they saw net gains from college graduates, they lost large numbers of workers without degrees.
At least, that was true until recently. Now, large, expensive metros are shedding both kinds of workers. ...
These migration patterns may also reflect the fact that many cities outside coastal America have themselves changed over the last 20 years. More of them have developed the amenities associated first with big coastal cities: revitalized downtowns, brewpubs, loft apartment conversions, diverse restaurant scenes.
“Some of it is that the most expensive places got really expensive,” Rebecca Diamond, a Stanford economist, said of shifting migration patterns. “But also, the middle-tier places became more attractive.”
I'm in this category -- we left a major coastal metro area to move to a smaller, non-coastal place where we haven't given up almost any amenities, but with lower costs of living and less hassle (like traffic). If this trend were to accelerate, eventually some of the coastal cities would need to address the "push" factors that are causing people to leave, but right now we are a long way from this being a crises for any of those places.
posted by Dip Flash at 8:53 PM on May 16, 2023 [15 favorites]
"Doom Loop" it the name of my next psychedelic/bad-trip/shoegaze band. It's also a loop, which gets you right back where you started if you go all the way around.
posted by not_on_display at 8:57 PM on May 16, 2023 [9 favorites]
posted by not_on_display at 8:57 PM on May 16, 2023 [9 favorites]
Ironically in Seattle some of the strongest opposition towards any measures to get affordable housing comes from the Downtown Business Association. They’d sooner not fix real problems and just get more cops instead.
posted by Artw at 8:58 PM on May 16, 2023 [24 favorites]
posted by Artw at 8:58 PM on May 16, 2023 [24 favorites]
The doom loop phenomenon is entirely an online rage bait hellhole. Sure, the news has picked out up, but its foundation is privileged indignance by people who have (as always) lived here for OVER TWO YEARS, and they're sick of seeing absolutely normal big city scenes.
Sure, the homeless situation is bad, but that has more to do with two things: COVID, and this thing that SF does where every homeless initiative arrives in isolation and is expected to finally be the silver bullet that takes care of everything. There are some of the most knowledgeable homeless outreach and strategy workers anywhere here, but there's never enough sustained interest and funding to just let them do their thing. I'm sure that, like currently, the police have an opinion and pull and are using it to juke the stats.
posted by rhizome at 9:06 PM on May 16, 2023 [26 favorites]
Sure, the homeless situation is bad, but that has more to do with two things: COVID, and this thing that SF does where every homeless initiative arrives in isolation and is expected to finally be the silver bullet that takes care of everything. There are some of the most knowledgeable homeless outreach and strategy workers anywhere here, but there's never enough sustained interest and funding to just let them do their thing. I'm sure that, like currently, the police have an opinion and pull and are using it to juke the stats.
posted by rhizome at 9:06 PM on May 16, 2023 [26 favorites]
Things currently in a doom loop according to a Google news search for the last few months
San Francisco
Regional Banks
San Jose
Pay TV
San Francisco Giants
Chicago
Boston
New York
The UK
The Eurozone
The Climate (I mean fair point..)
Commercial Real Estate
China
Portland
The US Economy
The Global Economy
The World generally
I lived in SF for many years but have no ties there now. I moved there only a few years after the dot com crash and I remember co-workers telling me how the Bay Area had fallen off a cliff and would never recover and how their homes were worthless now. There are serious problems in SF (especially the unhoused population) but I’d personally bet on San Francisco bouncing back. I hope they do it better this time.
posted by inflatablekiwi at 9:16 PM on May 16, 2023 [9 favorites]
San Francisco
Regional Banks
San Jose
Pay TV
San Francisco Giants
Chicago
Boston
New York
The UK
The Eurozone
The Climate (I mean fair point..)
Commercial Real Estate
China
Portland
The US Economy
The Global Economy
The World generally
I lived in SF for many years but have no ties there now. I moved there only a few years after the dot com crash and I remember co-workers telling me how the Bay Area had fallen off a cliff and would never recover and how their homes were worthless now. There are serious problems in SF (especially the unhoused population) but I’d personally bet on San Francisco bouncing back. I hope they do it better this time.
posted by inflatablekiwi at 9:16 PM on May 16, 2023 [9 favorites]
The main thing you need to remember is that nominally leftist cities are hellholes, while fascist suburbs in the South are the Promised Land of White Freedom.
…hold that in your heads and the rest makes perfect sense. Death Santa will save you from the naughty browns that might impair your property values, just have faith in the Right Jesus.
If you want to get Better, bow to authoritarianism, we are the only media-approved solution!
posted by aramaic at 9:18 PM on May 16, 2023 [68 favorites]
…hold that in your heads and the rest makes perfect sense. Death Santa will save you from the naughty browns that might impair your property values, just have faith in the Right Jesus.
If you want to get Better, bow to authoritarianism, we are the only media-approved solution!
posted by aramaic at 9:18 PM on May 16, 2023 [68 favorites]
I can rent a decent 1B studio in the nice parts of Tokyo for $700/mo now, same rents I saw there 30 years ago now.
1B in SF are 4X that. Same story in LA, the exact same decent apartment I rented there in '92-'93 for $700/mo now rents for 4X that.
解決策を持っていませけど、確かに問題を賞賛します
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 9:19 PM on May 16, 2023 [12 favorites]
1B in SF are 4X that. Same story in LA, the exact same decent apartment I rented there in '92-'93 for $700/mo now rents for 4X that.
解決策を持っていませけど、確かに問題を賞賛します
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 9:19 PM on May 16, 2023 [12 favorites]
Are those prices in Tokyo more reflective of the population stagnation / decrease in Japan or something else going on? Generally curious - because wow I’d love to spend more time In Tokyo and Japan, and at those prices! What a place!
posted by inflatablekiwi at 9:24 PM on May 16, 2023 [6 favorites]
posted by inflatablekiwi at 9:24 PM on May 16, 2023 [6 favorites]
In Seattle, the Doom Loop is predicted by people who 1) watch FOX NEWS on a constant 24/7 Doom Loop, and 2) don't even live in Seattle, and maybe live in the outlying suburbs, at best, and don't even pay taxes to Seattle or King County. As to whether or not this might inform readers about San Francisco's supposed plight, I don't know.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 10:05 PM on May 16, 2023 [9 favorites]
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 10:05 PM on May 16, 2023 [9 favorites]
The rumors of my demise are greatly exaggerated.
Gloom and doom apparently sells.
posted by JohnnyGunn at 10:16 PM on May 16, 2023
Gloom and doom apparently sells.
posted by JohnnyGunn at 10:16 PM on May 16, 2023
as an experiment I randomly dropped onto this StreetView in Western Tokyo . . . to the west is the typical 1950-70s danchi public housing development, and to the east is the typical new SFH subdivision, where each house takes up about the space my driveway alone does in my 1970s "California Ranch" SFH.
Tokyo pop has risen from 32M -> 37M 1990-2020, while California pop went from 30M -> 40M during this time.
Due to the lack of zoning restrictions and ~2% 35 year mortgage rates, land values are still pretty sky-high in Tokyo vs California, so new housing stock in Tokyo is still pretty space efficient vs. California (i.e. rabbit hutch housing is the rule still).
Inflation graph shows inflation has been flat-ish since 1990 in Japan but up 2-3X in the US which also contributes to the difference.
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 10:18 PM on May 16, 2023 [2 favorites]
Tokyo pop has risen from 32M -> 37M 1990-2020, while California pop went from 30M -> 40M during this time.
Due to the lack of zoning restrictions and ~2% 35 year mortgage rates, land values are still pretty sky-high in Tokyo vs California, so new housing stock in Tokyo is still pretty space efficient vs. California (i.e. rabbit hutch housing is the rule still).
Inflation graph shows inflation has been flat-ish since 1990 in Japan but up 2-3X in the US which also contributes to the difference.
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 10:18 PM on May 16, 2023 [2 favorites]
There's definitely a doomer angle that comes from the right, from reactionaries, but that doesn't mean there isn't some meat in this burger; when we surrender cities to the new hot workforce we force out people who have a hard time moving in favor of those who can move easily. When the tides turn and the movers move on, the folks you pushed out have settled somewhere new and you're left with much less than you once had. I agree SF can bounce back, but the deeper question is about how we make that bounce back something resilient, something new.
posted by wemayfreeze at 11:42 PM on May 16, 2023 [14 favorites]
posted by wemayfreeze at 11:42 PM on May 16, 2023 [14 favorites]
I live in San Francisco, for about 20 years now, and the thing I don't get about the doom and death of San Francisco articles is that just based on the weather and scenery it seems like this town will always be an attractive place to live.
I commute by bike and can just add a random detour on the way home to see the ocean or bay and just fall back in love with this place on any given day.
I like to think that the minimum threshold of desirability for this place remains quiet high just based on it's natural location.
posted by Hicksu at 11:55 PM on May 16, 2023 [40 favorites]
I commute by bike and can just add a random detour on the way home to see the ocean or bay and just fall back in love with this place on any given day.
I like to think that the minimum threshold of desirability for this place remains quiet high just based on it's natural location.
posted by Hicksu at 11:55 PM on May 16, 2023 [40 favorites]
I’d bet against the doom loop.
Vacant office space will drop in price and turn over to firms that insist on work-from-office, because who else will rent it? We’d take down 5,000 feet tomorrow at the right price and have 20 people commuting five days a week, if the price were right. There are thousands of firms like mine and at the right rents easily the vacancies go back to 2019 levels.
Tax revenues being much lower for a while, and permanently reduced to the extent lower rents push a reappraisal of building taxes, will be fine. SF will just have to have a closer to average level of public employment compensation - somewhat fewer jobs at somewhat lower salaries. It’s not like people won’t still be lined up around the block for those jobs even with somewhat lower pay and higher duties.
San Francisco is already a very nice place everywhere that is inconvenient for the meth-addicted mentally-ill segment of the homeless to go. It was a political decision to make the rest of San Francisco convenient for them, and another political decision can change that. Recalling Boudin and the School Board radicals shows that the will for that is there, and I’d bet it’s a matter of when not wheather.
posted by MattD at 12:31 AM on May 17, 2023 [1 favorite]
Vacant office space will drop in price and turn over to firms that insist on work-from-office, because who else will rent it? We’d take down 5,000 feet tomorrow at the right price and have 20 people commuting five days a week, if the price were right. There are thousands of firms like mine and at the right rents easily the vacancies go back to 2019 levels.
Tax revenues being much lower for a while, and permanently reduced to the extent lower rents push a reappraisal of building taxes, will be fine. SF will just have to have a closer to average level of public employment compensation - somewhat fewer jobs at somewhat lower salaries. It’s not like people won’t still be lined up around the block for those jobs even with somewhat lower pay and higher duties.
San Francisco is already a very nice place everywhere that is inconvenient for the meth-addicted mentally-ill segment of the homeless to go. It was a political decision to make the rest of San Francisco convenient for them, and another political decision can change that. Recalling Boudin and the School Board radicals shows that the will for that is there, and I’d bet it’s a matter of when not wheather.
posted by MattD at 12:31 AM on May 17, 2023 [1 favorite]
Nobody wanted to sign a long-term lease. But the idea of the bookstore and the pop-up restaurant and people enjoying something novel in the city I loved and ached for filled me with relief.
Plenty of people would love to sign long term leases, but many of them got priced out due to the tech boom. Good Vibrations HQ became a tech startup office - when I gently suggested that they donate some of their profits to the community (esp LGBTQIA+ and sexual justice causes) to reflect the heritage of their building, they literally considered it a threat. The Center for Sex and Culture, home to a lot of important activist and art work for sex and gender diversity & justice, moved entirely online after decades of being in The Mission because the rents were too high and their mural (which they crowdfunded for, on a website with a way more expensive fee because their cause was deemed "too saucy" for the likes of Visa and MasterCard) kept getting painted over. Friends and peers who were deep in SF's queer, PoC, artsy, activist culture, have left the state.
And yet neither of the "doom loop" articles seem to recognise this, save for "oh maybe we can give the peasants money to dance for us because we are so bored".
posted by creatrixtiara at 12:35 AM on May 17, 2023 [32 favorites]
Plenty of people would love to sign long term leases, but many of them got priced out due to the tech boom. Good Vibrations HQ became a tech startup office - when I gently suggested that they donate some of their profits to the community (esp LGBTQIA+ and sexual justice causes) to reflect the heritage of their building, they literally considered it a threat. The Center for Sex and Culture, home to a lot of important activist and art work for sex and gender diversity & justice, moved entirely online after decades of being in The Mission because the rents were too high and their mural (which they crowdfunded for, on a website with a way more expensive fee because their cause was deemed "too saucy" for the likes of Visa and MasterCard) kept getting painted over. Friends and peers who were deep in SF's queer, PoC, artsy, activist culture, have left the state.
And yet neither of the "doom loop" articles seem to recognise this, save for "oh maybe we can give the peasants money to dance for us because we are so bored".
posted by creatrixtiara at 12:35 AM on May 17, 2023 [32 favorites]
so SF went for the Doom Loop? I thought that was more of a Shelbyville idea...
posted by chavenet at 2:09 AM on May 17, 2023 [29 favorites]
posted by chavenet at 2:09 AM on May 17, 2023 [29 favorites]
Any time I read one of these articles, there's always a part where they have to dismiss the most obvious solution — "But we can't turn it into housing because it's too hard or or too expensive will take too long" (cue sad trombone) And then they'll follow it with some obtuse discussion about floor plans or natural light or bathroom capacity or whatever. And I'm like, "bullshit."
I mean, "Factory Chic" did not exist prior to the 1960s, because there wasn't a ton of vacant factory space or a wave of broke young people who wanted to live someplace fun. But then those social forces coincided and boom! Factory chic was born.
So what if the floor plans are inconvenient? So fucking what? So what if some of the units won't have natural light? So what if people will have to share a bathroom? Who fucking cares? Have you ever seen the inside of a shared loft apartment in an ungentrified neighborhood? Those places can be downright unpleasant. But you know what? People move into them because they're young and broke and want to live someplace fun.
"But we can't turn it into housing because it's too hard or too expensive or will take too long." Bull. Shit. Let the people try. Fling open the floodgates. Do it the official way ... or not. Maybe just turn a blind eye. Let the artists and students and cokehead line cooks and the occasional stray normie move in. Let them make the space theirs. You're worried about natural light or private bathrooms or whatever bourgeois concerns you might have? Fuck it. Let the new residents sort it out. Because they will. Because they're young and they're broke and they need a place to live. They will find a way because they always do.
Okay, maybe put in a few basic rules to avoid the worst outcomes. Fire safety is non-negotiable. And maybe try to keep a lid on overcrowding. But all the articles I see dismissing the most obvious solution seem to harp on a bunch of issues that aren't even really safety concerns at all, but are basically quality-of-life issues. And I'm like, who the fuck cares? Maybe you won't want to live there, but somebody will. And who are you to tell them any different, just because you want them to have a private bathroom?
posted by panama joe at 5:00 AM on May 17, 2023 [30 favorites]
I mean, "Factory Chic" did not exist prior to the 1960s, because there wasn't a ton of vacant factory space or a wave of broke young people who wanted to live someplace fun. But then those social forces coincided and boom! Factory chic was born.
So what if the floor plans are inconvenient? So fucking what? So what if some of the units won't have natural light? So what if people will have to share a bathroom? Who fucking cares? Have you ever seen the inside of a shared loft apartment in an ungentrified neighborhood? Those places can be downright unpleasant. But you know what? People move into them because they're young and broke and want to live someplace fun.
"But we can't turn it into housing because it's too hard or too expensive or will take too long." Bull. Shit. Let the people try. Fling open the floodgates. Do it the official way ... or not. Maybe just turn a blind eye. Let the artists and students and cokehead line cooks and the occasional stray normie move in. Let them make the space theirs. You're worried about natural light or private bathrooms or whatever bourgeois concerns you might have? Fuck it. Let the new residents sort it out. Because they will. Because they're young and they're broke and they need a place to live. They will find a way because they always do.
Okay, maybe put in a few basic rules to avoid the worst outcomes. Fire safety is non-negotiable. And maybe try to keep a lid on overcrowding. But all the articles I see dismissing the most obvious solution seem to harp on a bunch of issues that aren't even really safety concerns at all, but are basically quality-of-life issues. And I'm like, who the fuck cares? Maybe you won't want to live there, but somebody will. And who are you to tell them any different, just because you want them to have a private bathroom?
posted by panama joe at 5:00 AM on May 17, 2023 [30 favorites]
It sounds like you're describing the vibrant squatting scene of 1970s London. I believe some lefty local councils in those days would even lend out crowbars to potential squatters wanting to open up and occupy long-deserted or half-derelict properties. Many set about improving them as soon as they moved in. Bands like Joe Strummer's pre-Clash outfit The 101ers emerged from exactly this community.
posted by Paul Slade at 5:51 AM on May 17, 2023 [7 favorites]
posted by Paul Slade at 5:51 AM on May 17, 2023 [7 favorites]
Wouldn’t happen. Blue city mayors are all petty fascists you got in on a ticket of fighting “crime” (visible homelessness and poor people) via more cops and giving cops more permission to do whatever they like. Problems get worse as a result but at least landlords get to shut down any proposals like that.
Maybe that’s the true doom spiral after all.
posted by Artw at 5:56 AM on May 17, 2023 [10 favorites]
Maybe that’s the true doom spiral after all.
posted by Artw at 5:56 AM on May 17, 2023 [10 favorites]
not_on_display: "Doom Loop" it the name of my next psychedelic/bad-trip/shoegaze band.
Reversing the name, Pool Mood is my ska band that only covers your back catalog, and plays primarily college parties in Somerville & Cambridge, MA.
On a serious note, I have been to a local co-working facility where a friend pays a monthly fee to have space that's better for working than her dining room, but still cheaper for her boss than having a whole big office.
And when I compare it to my own large organization, I would be curious how the math works out to shed whole buildings in favor of smaller sub-offices within a bigger space like that.
posted by wenestvedt at 6:25 AM on May 17, 2023 [19 favorites]
Reversing the name, Pool Mood is my ska band that only covers your back catalog, and plays primarily college parties in Somerville & Cambridge, MA.
On a serious note, I have been to a local co-working facility where a friend pays a monthly fee to have space that's better for working than her dining room, but still cheaper for her boss than having a whole big office.
And when I compare it to my own large organization, I would be curious how the math works out to shed whole buildings in favor of smaller sub-offices within a bigger space like that.
posted by wenestvedt at 6:25 AM on May 17, 2023 [19 favorites]
I do think the built environment in the US is facing a bad hangover from decades of building with little consideration of maintenance cost. Applies as much to the suburbs as to the cities, just differently.
Never comes up in Doom Loop articles written as real estate ideology.
posted by clew at 7:02 AM on May 17, 2023 [6 favorites]
Never comes up in Doom Loop articles written as real estate ideology.
posted by clew at 7:02 AM on May 17, 2023 [6 favorites]
Vacant office space will drop in price and turn over to firms that insist on work-from-office, because who else will rent it? We’d take down 5,000 feet tomorrow at the right price and have 20 people commuting five days a week, if the price were right. There are thousands of firms like mine and at the right rents easily the vacancies go back to 2019 levels.
I agree. A combination of office rents dropping to a new market price, plus conversion of some office buildings into housing or other uses, would seem like a fine recipe for having a fairly vital downtown in any of these cities. However, commercial landlords are weird (meaning, they operate according to calculations that aren't always obvious from the outside), so there may be a lot who would let buildings sit empty rather than drop rents or convert to other uses.
posted by Dip Flash at 7:05 AM on May 17, 2023 [3 favorites]
I agree. A combination of office rents dropping to a new market price, plus conversion of some office buildings into housing or other uses, would seem like a fine recipe for having a fairly vital downtown in any of these cities. However, commercial landlords are weird (meaning, they operate according to calculations that aren't always obvious from the outside), so there may be a lot who would let buildings sit empty rather than drop rents or convert to other uses.
posted by Dip Flash at 7:05 AM on May 17, 2023 [3 favorites]
I agree. A combination of office rents dropping to a new market price, plus conversion of some office buildings into housing or other uses, would seem like a fine recipe for having a fairly vital downtown in any of these cities. However, commercial landlords are weird (meaning, they operate according to calculations that aren't always obvious from the outside), so there may be a lot who would let buildings sit empty rather than drop rents or convert to other uses.
This is interesting, Dip Flash. Are these non-obvious calculations something like a tax incentive? My quarter baked thought is - do they get to write off vacant space as a tax incentive? and contrariwise, does leasing the space for less money than they've said it's worth have some effect on their balance sheet that does not help them?
posted by eirias at 7:18 AM on May 17, 2023 [3 favorites]
This is interesting, Dip Flash. Are these non-obvious calculations something like a tax incentive? My quarter baked thought is - do they get to write off vacant space as a tax incentive? and contrariwise, does leasing the space for less money than they've said it's worth have some effect on their balance sheet that does not help them?
posted by eirias at 7:18 AM on May 17, 2023 [3 favorites]
Office leases are often for 5 or 10 years, rather than year-to-year. They're more incentivized to wait it out than drop prices and get locked into what they might perceive as a temporary dip in the market value.
Additionally, once you drop the price, you've kind of locked in that drop for all of your other properties/office spaces. These landlords own lots of space, holding the line and accepting that they have a certain amount of vacancy is better than letting the market value drop.
posted by explosion at 7:26 AM on May 17, 2023 [3 favorites]
Additionally, once you drop the price, you've kind of locked in that drop for all of your other properties/office spaces. These landlords own lots of space, holding the line and accepting that they have a certain amount of vacancy is better than letting the market value drop.
posted by explosion at 7:26 AM on May 17, 2023 [3 favorites]
I blame the war on Christmas.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 7:29 AM on May 17, 2023 [7 favorites]
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 7:29 AM on May 17, 2023 [7 favorites]
You're worried about natural light or private bathrooms or whatever bourgeois concerns you might have? Fuck it. Let the new residents sort it out. Because they will. Because they're young and they're broke and they need a place to live. They will find a way because they always do.
This is how you get exploitative landlords that charge thousands of dollars a month for rent for a shoebox-sized space.
posted by creatrixtiara at 7:34 AM on May 17, 2023 [12 favorites]
This is how you get exploitative landlords that charge thousands of dollars a month for rent for a shoebox-sized space.
posted by creatrixtiara at 7:34 AM on May 17, 2023 [12 favorites]
Additionally, once you drop the price, you've kind of locked in that drop for all of your other properties/office spaces. These landlords own lots of space, holding the line and accepting that they have a certain amount of vacancy is better than letting the market value drop.
Everybody always posits this - but it's not true. Most large office buildings sell for huge discounts over construction costs. It's not rare. And most cities in the US have close to 20% (and higher) vacancy downtown. That SF had less made it special. It also depends on limiting office construction, which is not done. Most cities build as much office as the market needs, plus some more on spec in hopes that someone will come rent it.
It's more that prices for individual buildings are 'sticky' due to the maintenance costs, which are large for huge downtown buildings, and the remodeling costs, as office spaces have to be reworked for different clients. Nothing necessarily dramatic, but access A/C controls/ stuff like that, and all that has long payback periods.
There is plenty of office space in many cities in the US that never been occupied in 30-40 years after construction. Office prices per sq foot, unlike home prices, are also fairly consistent across the US.
posted by The_Vegetables at 7:36 AM on May 17, 2023
Everybody always posits this - but it's not true. Most large office buildings sell for huge discounts over construction costs. It's not rare. And most cities in the US have close to 20% (and higher) vacancy downtown. That SF had less made it special. It also depends on limiting office construction, which is not done. Most cities build as much office as the market needs, plus some more on spec in hopes that someone will come rent it.
It's more that prices for individual buildings are 'sticky' due to the maintenance costs, which are large for huge downtown buildings, and the remodeling costs, as office spaces have to be reworked for different clients. Nothing necessarily dramatic, but access A/C controls/ stuff like that, and all that has long payback periods.
There is plenty of office space in many cities in the US that never been occupied in 30-40 years after construction. Office prices per sq foot, unlike home prices, are also fairly consistent across the US.
posted by The_Vegetables at 7:36 AM on May 17, 2023
San Francisco was top heavy on tech jobs, which are first to go remote. The cell phone ping data is interesting too (dead last).
...the study’s authors from the University of Toronto and UC Berkeley have blamed on the city’s reliance on office jobs that are easily done remotely. Those include professional, scientific, and technical services, which made up 31% of the downtown workforce as of 2019, and information, which includes many tech jobs and made up over 9% of the workforce in 2019, according to census data.
posted by Brian B. at 7:43 AM on May 17, 2023 [1 favorite]
...the study’s authors from the University of Toronto and UC Berkeley have blamed on the city’s reliance on office jobs that are easily done remotely. Those include professional, scientific, and technical services, which made up 31% of the downtown workforce as of 2019, and information, which includes many tech jobs and made up over 9% of the workforce in 2019, according to census data.
posted by Brian B. at 7:43 AM on May 17, 2023 [1 favorite]
The other doom spiral obsession is with downtown areas, which are presented as the entirety of the city when they are not. Maybe downtowns are just a bad idea?
posted by Artw at 7:49 AM on May 17, 2023 [5 favorites]
posted by Artw at 7:49 AM on May 17, 2023 [5 favorites]
In the last decade and a half, we let far too many soft, spoiled people who should've packed up and gone to whatever suburb they could afford once they turned 30 linger in the city, and this rhetoric is how we are repaid. Nothing worse than an upper middle class white person who isn't getting what they think they're entitled to based on their income.
posted by praemunire at 7:55 AM on May 17, 2023 [9 favorites]
posted by praemunire at 7:55 AM on May 17, 2023 [9 favorites]
Gonna modify the above to say specifically downtown business cores.
posted by Artw at 7:59 AM on May 17, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by Artw at 7:59 AM on May 17, 2023 [3 favorites]
I don't think downtown areas are a bad idea but having them be mostly office space is a bad idea. My city is having a lot of the same problems as SF but on a smaller scale. Downtown is pretty quiet during the day and a bunch of retail and lunch places have had to close. The good news is that many of our buildings are old enough that they were built with natural light taken into account and are on small enough plates that they can be turned into apartments pretty easily. I know of about ten buildings that have been converted already and there's a bunch of on-going projects; even one turning the old Gulf Oil headquarters into apartments.
posted by octothorpe at 7:59 AM on May 17, 2023 [17 favorites]
posted by octothorpe at 7:59 AM on May 17, 2023 [17 favorites]
Everywhere in Seattle that’s a good mix of businesses and people actually living there seems to be doing fine. It’s very specifically the area around all the big office buildings downtown that is fucked. Possibly coincidentally every business that wasn’t a bland chain was driven out of there years ago.
posted by Artw at 8:01 AM on May 17, 2023 [8 favorites]
posted by Artw at 8:01 AM on May 17, 2023 [8 favorites]
> If San Francisco is in a doom loop please explain this and this.
Toronto is in kind of the same boat wherein the the price of housing continues to skyrocket as the livability of the city continues to plummet.
posted by The Card Cheat at 8:26 AM on May 17, 2023 [3 favorites]
Toronto is in kind of the same boat wherein the the price of housing continues to skyrocket as the livability of the city continues to plummet.
posted by The Card Cheat at 8:26 AM on May 17, 2023 [3 favorites]
I recently visited my company's office in downtown Denver for the first time in months, and was thinking that maybe just skyscrapers in general were an unfortunate idea - a natural complement to car-driven suburban sprawl, rather than the antithesis. I think our 1920s downtown would be faring much better than its current iteration (which is still far better than the 1970s version in that article). Just let there be more centers, with good public transit and higher general density between.
The whole 20th-century approach of building grand projects that are hard to repurpose, hard to knock down, and reliant on a particular set of economic and environmental circumstances that are far more changeable than we ever thought was perhaps a little short-sighted.
posted by McBearclaw at 8:28 AM on May 17, 2023 [8 favorites]
The whole 20th-century approach of building grand projects that are hard to repurpose, hard to knock down, and reliant on a particular set of economic and environmental circumstances that are far more changeable than we ever thought was perhaps a little short-sighted.
posted by McBearclaw at 8:28 AM on May 17, 2023 [8 favorites]
Our downtown had a residential population of 7,500 in 1940 but was down to 2,200 by 1960 due to white flight, highway construction and urban renewal projects. It's only been in the last decade that they've started building (or repurposing) apartments Downtown again and the population has actually grown by 50% since 2010. People want to live downtown if you have places for them to live.
posted by octothorpe at 8:36 AM on May 17, 2023 [6 favorites]
posted by octothorpe at 8:36 AM on May 17, 2023 [6 favorites]
maybe just skyscrapers in general were an unfortunate idea - a natural complement to car-driven suburban sprawl, rather than the antithesis
Can you say more about this? Is it an intuition, or is there some nexus with skyscrapers + suburbs you have in mind specifically? (Especially skyscrapers vs, say, the 12-story buildings in your linked photo?)
I have some adjacent work experience with planning and architecture and the fundamentals of density and height are great for quite liveable cities. You just need transit and good urban design (eg skyscrapers do create wind, heat and shadows).
The problems with our use of cities seem almost exclusively to originate in racism, classism and dependence on petroleum.
posted by Reasonably Everything Happens at 8:41 AM on May 17, 2023 [2 favorites]
Can you say more about this? Is it an intuition, or is there some nexus with skyscrapers + suburbs you have in mind specifically? (Especially skyscrapers vs, say, the 12-story buildings in your linked photo?)
I have some adjacent work experience with planning and architecture and the fundamentals of density and height are great for quite liveable cities. You just need transit and good urban design (eg skyscrapers do create wind, heat and shadows).
The problems with our use of cities seem almost exclusively to originate in racism, classism and dependence on petroleum.
posted by Reasonably Everything Happens at 8:41 AM on May 17, 2023 [2 favorites]
Downtown SF and the Tenderloin have been like this for a loooong time. I think articles like these are either written from the point of view of
a) people with vested interest (i.e. shareholders) in profitable office space leases whining about not being able to afford their 3rd vacation home
Or
b) non-1%ers cleverly using scare tactics to facilitate lowered market rates on residental and commercial real estate.
Remember all those Forbes articles about how remote work was 'over' and the executives had spoken and we're being obeyed? And then how a bunch more articles from independent journalists came out pointing out that, no, actually those companies were hemorrhaging talent and skilled workers were calling the shots? I always like to look at who the intended audience is, and what the authors would like them to believe, and see how that affects how they might slant the facts.
posted by ananci at 8:45 AM on May 17, 2023 [8 favorites]
a) people with vested interest (i.e. shareholders) in profitable office space leases whining about not being able to afford their 3rd vacation home
Or
b) non-1%ers cleverly using scare tactics to facilitate lowered market rates on residental and commercial real estate.
Remember all those Forbes articles about how remote work was 'over' and the executives had spoken and we're being obeyed? And then how a bunch more articles from independent journalists came out pointing out that, no, actually those companies were hemorrhaging talent and skilled workers were calling the shots? I always like to look at who the intended audience is, and what the authors would like them to believe, and see how that affects how they might slant the facts.
posted by ananci at 8:45 AM on May 17, 2023 [8 favorites]
Commoditization of real estate to the point where it’s no longer about their use and more a hollow trading unit like bitcoin also pays a part. Many of the dumber large building projects are absolutely a part of this.
posted by Artw at 8:45 AM on May 17, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by Artw at 8:45 AM on May 17, 2023 [4 favorites]
hard to knock down
By design let's hope, because they are expecting a major quake.
posted by Brian B. at 8:45 AM on May 17, 2023 [4 favorites]
By design let's hope, because they are expecting a major quake.
posted by Brian B. at 8:45 AM on May 17, 2023 [4 favorites]
Anaci - and now we’re at “the way forwards is to fire everybody for short term stock gains” which is about as grounded in reality.
posted by Artw at 8:46 AM on May 17, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by Artw at 8:46 AM on May 17, 2023 [3 favorites]
Office rents are sticky to be sure but eventually will come down to demand, in part because foreclosures will reset landlord cost basis down to the point where renting at the market clearing price is profitable.
The overwhelming driver of stickiness in office rents is because of pre-COVID leases that tenants have been paying even when they didn't need the space. Those leases are steadily expiring and tenants are demanding (and getting) big concessions.
Work from home is not a long-term problem for San Francisco. The vast majority of employers despise it and are revoking it at fast as they can. The geographic and cultural synergies that make San Francisco a good place to house office workers haven't changed. At the right rents, 4- and 5-day a week in office employers will take down every last vacant square foot of San Francisco office space.
posted by MattD at 9:04 AM on May 17, 2023 [1 favorite]
The overwhelming driver of stickiness in office rents is because of pre-COVID leases that tenants have been paying even when they didn't need the space. Those leases are steadily expiring and tenants are demanding (and getting) big concessions.
Work from home is not a long-term problem for San Francisco. The vast majority of employers despise it and are revoking it at fast as they can. The geographic and cultural synergies that make San Francisco a good place to house office workers haven't changed. At the right rents, 4- and 5-day a week in office employers will take down every last vacant square foot of San Francisco office space.
posted by MattD at 9:04 AM on May 17, 2023 [1 favorite]
San Francisco was much better and more affordable when the hippies occupied the Haight. Then one could see three groups for $3 at the Fillmore. You can not buy a bag of potato chips for that now.
posted by DJZouke at 9:04 AM on May 17, 2023
posted by DJZouke at 9:04 AM on May 17, 2023
You're worried about natural light or private bathrooms or whatever bourgeois concerns you might have? Fuck it.
This is how you get exploitative landlords that charge thousands of dollars a month for rent for a shoebox-sized space.
As opposed to the glorious, affordable utopia that is the SF real estate market today? Regulations should ensure that housing is safe (e.g., no mold, infestations, or collapsing walls) and that landlords don't misrepresent the condition of the unit and provide promised services (e.g., air conditioning). Everything else should be fair game, especially including SRO's.
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 9:12 AM on May 17, 2023 [6 favorites]
This is how you get exploitative landlords that charge thousands of dollars a month for rent for a shoebox-sized space.
As opposed to the glorious, affordable utopia that is the SF real estate market today? Regulations should ensure that housing is safe (e.g., no mold, infestations, or collapsing walls) and that landlords don't misrepresent the condition of the unit and provide promised services (e.g., air conditioning). Everything else should be fair game, especially including SRO's.
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 9:12 AM on May 17, 2023 [6 favorites]
Regulations should ensure that housing is safe
I think that access to natural light and air in people's bedrooms and living spaces is a health and safety concern.
posted by Hicksu at 9:19 AM on May 17, 2023 [5 favorites]
I think that access to natural light and air in people's bedrooms and living spaces is a health and safety concern.
posted by Hicksu at 9:19 AM on May 17, 2023 [5 favorites]
I blame the war on Christmas.
always happy to see my efforts noted.
posted by philip-random at 9:22 AM on May 17, 2023 [12 favorites]
always happy to see my efforts noted.
posted by philip-random at 9:22 AM on May 17, 2023 [12 favorites]
>This is how you get exploitative landlords that charge thousands of dollars a month for rent for a shoebox-sized space.
No need to go bringing anyone else into this calculus besides landlords. Landlords want to overcharge while providing as little as they can get away with, full stop.
posted by GoblinHoney at 9:25 AM on May 17, 2023 [1 favorite]
No need to go bringing anyone else into this calculus besides landlords. Landlords want to overcharge while providing as little as they can get away with, full stop.
posted by GoblinHoney at 9:25 AM on May 17, 2023 [1 favorite]
aka unregulated free market capitalism, blah-blah-blah
posted by philip-random at 9:26 AM on May 17, 2023
posted by philip-random at 9:26 AM on May 17, 2023
or perhaps I should say, "under-regulated"
posted by philip-random at 9:27 AM on May 17, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by philip-random at 9:27 AM on May 17, 2023 [1 favorite]
The uk changed its rules about 10 years ago to allow office space to housing conventions. I saw a few when I was house hunting in the mid 2010s, and they were all unbelievably awful. More awful than regular uk rental housing stock, which is saying something. The problem isn’t the housing stock, the problem is always the landlord class, who want to use their ‘investment’ (aka your house) to make as much money as possible. Legislation and heavy taxation of extra housing are the solutions.
posted by The River Ivel at 9:34 AM on May 17, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by The River Ivel at 9:34 AM on May 17, 2023 [3 favorites]
I don't think downtown areas are a bad idea but having them be mostly office space is a bad idea.
I've lived in a small town (~15K) and a mid-sized city (~80K) that both had vibrant, busy downtown areas with shops and restaurants and so on. The small town got it first- as it grew the lawyers and banks wanted offices in the downtown area, and started replacing the shops and restaurants, until the entire "downtown" was offices and a few restaurants to cater to them; all the shopping got pushed out to the highway rather than being something you could walk a few blocks to, or drive downtown, park, and walk from place to place. The mid-sized city, when I left in 2015, was already getting it- bookstores replaced by banks, restaurants torn down and replaced by apartment buildings.
Ultimately the problem is that people with money want to be where the appealing, attractive things are, and they've got enough money to outbid the appealing, attractive things until the entire space is people with money and there's no reason to go there anymore.
posted by Pope Guilty at 9:38 AM on May 17, 2023 [22 favorites]
I've lived in a small town (~15K) and a mid-sized city (~80K) that both had vibrant, busy downtown areas with shops and restaurants and so on. The small town got it first- as it grew the lawyers and banks wanted offices in the downtown area, and started replacing the shops and restaurants, until the entire "downtown" was offices and a few restaurants to cater to them; all the shopping got pushed out to the highway rather than being something you could walk a few blocks to, or drive downtown, park, and walk from place to place. The mid-sized city, when I left in 2015, was already getting it- bookstores replaced by banks, restaurants torn down and replaced by apartment buildings.
Ultimately the problem is that people with money want to be where the appealing, attractive things are, and they've got enough money to outbid the appealing, attractive things until the entire space is people with money and there's no reason to go there anymore.
posted by Pope Guilty at 9:38 AM on May 17, 2023 [22 favorites]
I think that access to natural light and air in people's bedrooms and living spaces is a health and safety concern.
Yes, I'm a little surprised to see that there are a number of people here who don't seem to grasp the basic reason for requiring multiple forms of egress from bedrooms, which in most floorplans means exterior windows. Hint: it's not aesthetic. It's not even about air circulation.
posted by praemunire at 9:39 AM on May 17, 2023 [18 favorites]
Yes, I'm a little surprised to see that there are a number of people here who don't seem to grasp the basic reason for requiring multiple forms of egress from bedrooms, which in most floorplans means exterior windows. Hint: it's not aesthetic. It's not even about air circulation.
posted by praemunire at 9:39 AM on May 17, 2023 [18 favorites]
There is plenty of office space in many cities in the US that never been occupied in 30-40 years after construction.
Whoa! If that’s averaged in does it still pay off as a national investment, or is this one of those bankrupt-or-rich games where we never hear from the bankrupts afterwards?
posted by clew at 9:41 AM on May 17, 2023
Whoa! If that’s averaged in does it still pay off as a national investment, or is this one of those bankrupt-or-rich games where we never hear from the bankrupts afterwards?
posted by clew at 9:41 AM on May 17, 2023
I'm a bit surprised at the push to deregulate housing that some people are making here - isn't this how you get slumlords/Grenfall/buildings falling down around people? We *started* with that lack of regulation, and there's a reason it's been added piecemeal over time.
Like, it feels like there's a lot more high-level stuff that's causing problems, before we get to "having windows is too onerous". Unless I'm misunderstanding the concern, and it's more like "having x amount of sunlight on all north-facing windows is too onerous" - but that doesn't seem to be what people are saying?
posted by sagc at 9:44 AM on May 17, 2023 [6 favorites]
Like, it feels like there's a lot more high-level stuff that's causing problems, before we get to "having windows is too onerous". Unless I'm misunderstanding the concern, and it's more like "having x amount of sunlight on all north-facing windows is too onerous" - but that doesn't seem to be what people are saying?
posted by sagc at 9:44 AM on May 17, 2023 [6 favorites]
What’s the largest building run by a collective or cooperative, and how long have they run it? Thinking of egress, high rise elevators are not something I’d want to half-ass. No more vital and technical than irrigation, so there’s probably an Ostrom-style answer, though not necessarily a cheap easy generous one.
posted by clew at 9:45 AM on May 17, 2023
posted by clew at 9:45 AM on May 17, 2023
San Francisco is a great home for small co-ops, though many are pizza themed: The cheeseboard collective, Zachary’s, Arizmendi (though that might be part of Cheeseboard?). I have no particular thoughts on this beyond hoping it’s overhyped, but I dream of co-ops coming downtown.
posted by Going To Maine at 9:52 AM on May 17, 2023
posted by Going To Maine at 9:52 AM on May 17, 2023
I dunno, SF could use some of that real estate to build housing instead of office spaces and parking structures. When your city nixes the concept of "dwellers" in lieu of offices, and then those offices are no longer occupied, you have an empty city.
I loved living in SF back in the 90's
posted by Chuffy at 10:07 AM on May 17, 2023
I loved living in SF back in the 90's
posted by Chuffy at 10:07 AM on May 17, 2023
Rust belt cities : hold my beer.
posted by oceano at 10:12 AM on May 17, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by oceano at 10:12 AM on May 17, 2023 [4 favorites]
Legislation and heavy taxation of extra housing are the solutions.
If you want less of something, tax it heavily. If you want more of something, subsidize it. We already provide a huge housing subsidy through the mortgage interest deduction. Because it primarily helps rich people, the mortgage interest deduction doesn't result in more housing but instead encourages people to buy more expensive houses. That money could (but probably won't) be redirected to support lower-income homeowners and renters.
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 10:26 AM on May 17, 2023
If you want less of something, tax it heavily. If you want more of something, subsidize it. We already provide a huge housing subsidy through the mortgage interest deduction. Because it primarily helps rich people, the mortgage interest deduction doesn't result in more housing but instead encourages people to buy more expensive houses. That money could (but probably won't) be redirected to support lower-income homeowners and renters.
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 10:26 AM on May 17, 2023
I'm a bit surprised at the push to deregulate housing that some people are making here - isn't this how you get slumlords/Grenfall/buildings falling down around people?
Safety concerns need to be separated from gate-keeping regulations. Some regulations have the apparent goal of prohibiting affordable housing. For example, in Seattle, you can't build SRO housing anymore. Every unit must have its own bathroom. SRO is contentious for many reasons, but in the early 1900's it was a common form of affordable housing. There are also minimum unit sizes that serve no safety function, both for shared housing and for single-family. In my old neighborhood, zoned SFH, plat restrictions forbade building a house smaller than 1200sqft. The explicit goal of that being to exclude the poor from the neighborhood.
posted by qxntpqbbbqxl at 10:55 AM on May 17, 2023 [4 favorites]
Safety concerns need to be separated from gate-keeping regulations. Some regulations have the apparent goal of prohibiting affordable housing. For example, in Seattle, you can't build SRO housing anymore. Every unit must have its own bathroom. SRO is contentious for many reasons, but in the early 1900's it was a common form of affordable housing. There are also minimum unit sizes that serve no safety function, both for shared housing and for single-family. In my old neighborhood, zoned SFH, plat restrictions forbade building a house smaller than 1200sqft. The explicit goal of that being to exclude the poor from the neighborhood.
posted by qxntpqbbbqxl at 10:55 AM on May 17, 2023 [4 favorites]
We already provide a huge housing subsidy through the mortgage interest deduction.
Somewhat hilariously, the mortgage interest deduction only applies to the first 750k of a mortgage, and home prices here are 2x-4x that. And the SALT limit means if you have income to afford a 2 million dollar mortgage, you wont likely see any property tax deduction. So those effects are actually less significant in the bay area than the rest of the US.
posted by pwnguin at 10:58 AM on May 17, 2023 [6 favorites]
Somewhat hilariously, the mortgage interest deduction only applies to the first 750k of a mortgage, and home prices here are 2x-4x that. And the SALT limit means if you have income to afford a 2 million dollar mortgage, you wont likely see any property tax deduction. So those effects are actually less significant in the bay area than the rest of the US.
posted by pwnguin at 10:58 AM on May 17, 2023 [6 favorites]
Aren't Zachary’s and The Cheeseboard in the East bay, not SF - of course the big collective biz there (the CO-OP supermarkets) is sadly long gone
posted by mbo at 11:35 AM on May 17, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by mbo at 11:35 AM on May 17, 2023 [3 favorites]
There's no need to subsidize residential conversion in San Francisco (or New York). All the office vacancies can be filled as offices at the right market price. Maybe some small proportion of the buildings are so easy to convert and so desirable to rent once converted that it will make sense to go that way.
posted by MattD at 11:38 AM on May 17, 2023
posted by MattD at 11:38 AM on May 17, 2023
Crime pointed this out in 1978, for what it's worth.
Maybe downtowns are just a bad idea?
Certainly post-c.1970 US urban downtowns terraformed exclusively for office workers and suburban commuters. They're a historical anomaly.
posted by ryanshepard at 12:09 PM on May 17, 2023 [2 favorites]
Maybe downtowns are just a bad idea?
Certainly post-c.1970 US urban downtowns terraformed exclusively for office workers and suburban commuters. They're a historical anomaly.
posted by ryanshepard at 12:09 PM on May 17, 2023 [2 favorites]
Office space can be very difficult to convert into housing, but it converts into light industrial space rather easily.
It has happened before. A skyscraper in Manhattan rather famously caught fire in 1970 because it was almost entirely occupied by carpet manufacturers and distributors, and the fire mitigations of the era weren't ready for that.
It's a matter of prices and time. The San Francisco central business district of the future may not look quite like it did ten years ago, but it isn't going to be a blasted wasteland, either.
posted by your postings may, in fact, be signed at 12:16 PM on May 17, 2023 [2 favorites]
It has happened before. A skyscraper in Manhattan rather famously caught fire in 1970 because it was almost entirely occupied by carpet manufacturers and distributors, and the fire mitigations of the era weren't ready for that.
It's a matter of prices and time. The San Francisco central business district of the future may not look quite like it did ten years ago, but it isn't going to be a blasted wasteland, either.
posted by your postings may, in fact, be signed at 12:16 PM on May 17, 2023 [2 favorites]
Lived in SF since ‘92. The government here is ridiculous. For example, Union Square is losing businesses, primarily large stores. Blame put on crime and filth in the environment. Today on the news, I heard that our mayor is launching an initiative for over $5M to renovate Powell street from Market to Geary and have $$ incentives to attract stores back on to the street. Well, they already renovated those blocks, wider sidewalks, etc. These blocks are primarily geared to tourists with the cable cars starting on Market and tour busses at the corner of Powell and Geary. The two shopping malls in town, one at Market and Powell and the other way across town in the suburban part of SF are losing or have lost dept stores as have most malls I’ve heard. Big stores leaving seems to much more an economic thing and less about crime and filth. So how is renovating the renovations on Powell going to do anything? Just the free $$ promised?
posted by njohnson23 at 12:21 PM on May 17, 2023 [5 favorites]
posted by njohnson23 at 12:21 PM on May 17, 2023 [5 favorites]
Work from home is not a long-term problem for San Francisco. The vast majority of employers despise it and are revoking it at fast as they can.
That is literally just, like, your opinion, man. I personally know a lot of managers and executives who enjoy working remotely, or at very least don't relish the idea of having to pull up stakes and move to a different city so they can work from HQ. The idea that we would ever go back to the days when your talent pool was limited to your city — or else you have to fly people out for interviews and expect them to relocate if they take the job — is utterly laughable. Of course remote work is here to stay.
But let's for a moment assume that you're right, that it's this bosses-vs-workers tug-of-war where bosses hate remote work, and workers want it. Well then it's just supply and demand, isn't it? The workers who are most in demand — and thus have the most bargaining power — will negotiate for hybrid or remote work, and the ones with the lowest skills and thus the least power will be forced into miserable commutes so they can perform worktheater to please their conservative authoritarian bosses. Either that, or you compromise on candidate quality and hire the less-skilled people who are less in-demand and thus are more willing to suffer the miserable commutes.
Sounds like a shit situation to me, but then you're the one advocating for "return to office."
posted by panama joe at 12:51 PM on May 17, 2023 [3 favorites]
That is literally just, like, your opinion, man. I personally know a lot of managers and executives who enjoy working remotely, or at very least don't relish the idea of having to pull up stakes and move to a different city so they can work from HQ. The idea that we would ever go back to the days when your talent pool was limited to your city — or else you have to fly people out for interviews and expect them to relocate if they take the job — is utterly laughable. Of course remote work is here to stay.
But let's for a moment assume that you're right, that it's this bosses-vs-workers tug-of-war where bosses hate remote work, and workers want it. Well then it's just supply and demand, isn't it? The workers who are most in demand — and thus have the most bargaining power — will negotiate for hybrid or remote work, and the ones with the lowest skills and thus the least power will be forced into miserable commutes so they can perform worktheater to please their conservative authoritarian bosses. Either that, or you compromise on candidate quality and hire the less-skilled people who are less in-demand and thus are more willing to suffer the miserable commutes.
Sounds like a shit situation to me, but then you're the one advocating for "return to office."
posted by panama joe at 12:51 PM on May 17, 2023 [3 favorites]
I remember turning down work from home jobs pre-pandemic… then I was forced into it and find actually I like it, plus now it would be a major hassle to change as I’ve adjusted my life so much around it - suspect that’s the same for a lot of people and it’s not going away any time soon.
posted by Artw at 1:30 PM on May 17, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by Artw at 1:30 PM on May 17, 2023 [4 favorites]
From January 2022: More than 40,000 housing units—ten percent of the current housing stock—are currently vacant in San Francisco.
posted by The Ardship of Cambry at 1:32 PM on May 17, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by The Ardship of Cambry at 1:32 PM on May 17, 2023 [2 favorites]
I'm a bit surprised at the push to deregulate housing that some people are making here - isn't this how you get slumlords/Grenfall/buildings falling down around people?
In 2016 36 residents died in the Ghost Ship warehouse fire in Oakland’s Fruitvale District.
posted by Phyllis keeps a tight rein at 1:36 PM on May 17, 2023 [9 favorites]
In 2016 36 residents died in the Ghost Ship warehouse fire in Oakland’s Fruitvale District.
posted by Phyllis keeps a tight rein at 1:36 PM on May 17, 2023 [9 favorites]
Recalling Boudin and the School Board radicals shows that the will for that is there
Recalling Boudin et al shows that the money for that is there.
posted by AlSweigart at 2:15 PM on May 17, 2023 [5 favorites]
Recalling Boudin et al shows that the money for that is there.
posted by AlSweigart at 2:15 PM on May 17, 2023 [5 favorites]
The workers who are most in demand — and thus have the most bargaining power — will negotiate for hybrid or remote work
But will they tho?
My prediction is that within 5 years the business landscape will swing the opposite way as it becomes crystal clear that business with in-person collaboration grind the "remote only" businesses into the dust. Employees will have to decide between a decent salary or a remote role, because the latter won't be able to afford to do otherwise.
posted by Back At It Again At Krispy Kreme at 2:41 PM on May 17, 2023 [1 favorite]
But will they tho?
My prediction is that within 5 years the business landscape will swing the opposite way as it becomes crystal clear that business with in-person collaboration grind the "remote only" businesses into the dust. Employees will have to decide between a decent salary or a remote role, because the latter won't be able to afford to do otherwise.
posted by Back At It Again At Krispy Kreme at 2:41 PM on May 17, 2023 [1 favorite]
Err, why do you think that?
posted by Artw at 2:44 PM on May 17, 2023 [6 favorites]
posted by Artw at 2:44 PM on May 17, 2023 [6 favorites]
Hey what if cities required a residential conversion plan in every proposal to build an office building? Naaaahhhh.
posted by nicwolff at 3:19 PM on May 17, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by nicwolff at 3:19 PM on May 17, 2023 [1 favorite]
Hey what if cities required a residential conversion plan in every proposal to build an office building? Naaaahhhh.
Looking at all the empty big-box retail sites, I've long wondered why we didn't require builders to put up demolition bonds to restore the site if/when their properties are abandoned.
posted by mikelieman at 4:23 PM on May 17, 2023 [4 favorites]
Looking at all the empty big-box retail sites, I've long wondered why we didn't require builders to put up demolition bonds to restore the site if/when their properties are abandoned.
posted by mikelieman at 4:23 PM on May 17, 2023 [4 favorites]
I presume everybody here proclaiming office conversions to be the greatest thing since sliced whatever will be moving into these buildings.
Cause eff that noise.
posted by computech_apolloniajames at 4:49 PM on May 17, 2023 [1 favorite]
Cause eff that noise.
posted by computech_apolloniajames at 4:49 PM on May 17, 2023 [1 favorite]
I am sad, because my brother was priced out of San Francisco, but I think he is happier in Italy.
Hello from New Orleans, where the city was destroyed by climate change once, and now lacks home insurance companies due to the four hurricanes in a row, 2020 -2021.
Also, the oil and gas industry is planning 100 new Petrochemical Projects from Rio Grande Valley to Port Sulfur. So, the idea of a doom loop is an interesting one to read about.
Property is theft.
posted by eustatic at 4:52 PM on May 17, 2023 [7 favorites]
Hello from New Orleans, where the city was destroyed by climate change once, and now lacks home insurance companies due to the four hurricanes in a row, 2020 -2021.
Also, the oil and gas industry is planning 100 new Petrochemical Projects from Rio Grande Valley to Port Sulfur. So, the idea of a doom loop is an interesting one to read about.
Property is theft.
posted by eustatic at 4:52 PM on May 17, 2023 [7 favorites]
As an SF resident, the article is surprisingly barely negative, despite the title.
I find remote vs. office debate interesting, but ultimately barely relevant to fate of the city except in terms of business tax. San Francisco never was a great "tech" city compared to Silicon Valley.
San Francisco was and still is a tourism city.
posted by kschang at 4:58 PM on May 17, 2023 [1 favorite]
I find remote vs. office debate interesting, but ultimately barely relevant to fate of the city except in terms of business tax. San Francisco never was a great "tech" city compared to Silicon Valley.
San Francisco was and still is a tourism city.
posted by kschang at 4:58 PM on May 17, 2023 [1 favorite]
I would think that given hygiene concerns post COVID that individual bathrooms would be more appropriate. If you want shared bathrooms, you'll also need to provide cleaners for those - because I'm not sure assigning it to random tenants would work.
posted by creatrixtiara at 5:00 PM on May 17, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by creatrixtiara at 5:00 PM on May 17, 2023 [1 favorite]
Selfishly, I'm less worried about cities like SF than I am mid-sized cities like Cleveland, where I'm from, one of the places the remote workers fled to, covered in the shit of their rescue dogs, and totally destabilized by driving up the cost of living so that people whose jobs ARE HERE suddenly can't afford to pay rent. These people are never discussed in these conversations, because the people who write these articles have no idea that they even exist.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 5:35 PM on May 17, 2023 [11 favorites]
posted by kittens for breakfast at 5:35 PM on May 17, 2023 [11 favorites]
I presume everybody here proclaiming office conversions to be the greatest thing since sliced whatever will be moving into these buildings.
Obviously the the devil is in the details but it is certainly something I would consider.
I do think the built environment in the US is facing a bad hangover from decades of building with little consideration of maintenance cost. Applies as much to the suburbs as to the cities, just differently.
Suburbs as implemented in the US are a Ponzi Scheme. I don't think high density cities, even if most of the space is business, is anywhere near that bad.
posted by Mitheral at 6:26 PM on May 17, 2023 [3 favorites]
Obviously the the devil is in the details but it is certainly something I would consider.
I do think the built environment in the US is facing a bad hangover from decades of building with little consideration of maintenance cost. Applies as much to the suburbs as to the cities, just differently.
Suburbs as implemented in the US are a Ponzi Scheme. I don't think high density cities, even if most of the space is business, is anywhere near that bad.
posted by Mitheral at 6:26 PM on May 17, 2023 [3 favorites]
I presume everybody here proclaiming office conversions to be the greatest thing since sliced whatever will be moving into these buildings.
Cause eff that noise.
There are developers BUILDING now with one window to the whole apartment. It's crazy! There's this idea that office conversions are going to be done by crustpunks who will create these neat communes where everyone can live cheap, but the reality is that they're probably going to be repackaged by developers as luxury "eco-apartments" with "small, but livable footprints" and still be aimed at rich renters. Whether anyone rich will actually rent them is another thing. At a certain point it's like, fuck it, for that kind of money I can get multiple windows!
I wonder if the case for city living is just not what it used to be. You had to pay city rent to access certain fashionable stores, but now you can order everything you could ever want online. You had to pay city rent if you wanted access to certain artforms, but those arts are either streaming online or if you're paying that much rent you won't be able to afford the live tickets anyway. You had to move to the city to be discovered in your field, but now you can be discovered online or alternatively only the very rich can be "discovered" in your field anyway, so why bother? You had to move to the city because you were the only gay in the village, but now there's multiples of everything in every village!
I mean, that's exaggerated, there's still advantages to city living, but some of the drivers are gone.
posted by kingdead at 7:13 PM on May 17, 2023 [2 favorites]
Cause eff that noise.
There are developers BUILDING now with one window to the whole apartment. It's crazy! There's this idea that office conversions are going to be done by crustpunks who will create these neat communes where everyone can live cheap, but the reality is that they're probably going to be repackaged by developers as luxury "eco-apartments" with "small, but livable footprints" and still be aimed at rich renters. Whether anyone rich will actually rent them is another thing. At a certain point it's like, fuck it, for that kind of money I can get multiple windows!
I wonder if the case for city living is just not what it used to be. You had to pay city rent to access certain fashionable stores, but now you can order everything you could ever want online. You had to pay city rent if you wanted access to certain artforms, but those arts are either streaming online or if you're paying that much rent you won't be able to afford the live tickets anyway. You had to move to the city to be discovered in your field, but now you can be discovered online or alternatively only the very rich can be "discovered" in your field anyway, so why bother? You had to move to the city because you were the only gay in the village, but now there's multiples of everything in every village!
I mean, that's exaggerated, there's still advantages to city living, but some of the drivers are gone.
posted by kingdead at 7:13 PM on May 17, 2023 [2 favorites]
My recollection from previous discussions about SF is that the city proper is much, much smaller than most people (who don't live there or in the immediate area) tend to realize. It's a very different situation from, say, NYC, and in fact you could fit six San Franciscos inside NYC by area. I suspect it's not far off from what you'd get if Manhattan were required to operate itself as its own city.
I think that puts it at a distinct disadvantage, because its tax base—both in terms of people and property—is probably subject to a lot more volatility than it would be, if the city limits included the inner suburbs and "edge cities" that orbit around it.
I'm too tired to dig into the numbers at the moment, but I wonder if the 'doom spiral' stuff wouldn't look different if you zoomed out and considered the entire Bay Area—SF but also San Jose, Fremont, Oakland, San Rafael, and all the other communities who benefit by proximity to the city itself—as a whole. My guess is that quite a few of the people 'fleeing' SF aren't moving to Red States full of uterus-botherers, but in reality just far enough away from downtown to get a nicer apartment (particularly attractive during the pandemic) while still retaining access to urban amenities. From SF's perspective that's not exactly a win, but it suggests that the city might not be doing anything fundamentally wrong compared to other large US cities. The issue is with the regional taxation and revenue distribution.
posted by Kadin2048 at 8:13 PM on May 17, 2023 [6 favorites]
I think that puts it at a distinct disadvantage, because its tax base—both in terms of people and property—is probably subject to a lot more volatility than it would be, if the city limits included the inner suburbs and "edge cities" that orbit around it.
I'm too tired to dig into the numbers at the moment, but I wonder if the 'doom spiral' stuff wouldn't look different if you zoomed out and considered the entire Bay Area—SF but also San Jose, Fremont, Oakland, San Rafael, and all the other communities who benefit by proximity to the city itself—as a whole. My guess is that quite a few of the people 'fleeing' SF aren't moving to Red States full of uterus-botherers, but in reality just far enough away from downtown to get a nicer apartment (particularly attractive during the pandemic) while still retaining access to urban amenities. From SF's perspective that's not exactly a win, but it suggests that the city might not be doing anything fundamentally wrong compared to other large US cities. The issue is with the regional taxation and revenue distribution.
posted by Kadin2048 at 8:13 PM on May 17, 2023 [6 favorites]
Seconding Kadin2048’s point, one of BART’s problems is it’s lack of regional authority. It needs to be a whole system but is perpetually tripping over various veto points. (Well, when I lived there, a decade ago! I do not expect change.)
posted by clew at 10:35 PM on May 17, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by clew at 10:35 PM on May 17, 2023 [2 favorites]
San Francisco never did what Chicago did and absorb the outstanding suburb cities. It's tough all around because we need more housing, but fucking counties are limiting development to like three stories. Hopefully the builders remedies actually help build more housing here.
posted by Carillon at 11:03 PM on May 17, 2023
posted by Carillon at 11:03 PM on May 17, 2023
Selfishly, I'm less worried about cities like SF than I am mid-sized cities like Cleveland, where I'm from, one of the places the remote workers fled to, covered in the shit of their rescue dogs
People who don't pick up after their dogs shouldn't be expelled from Cleveland — they should be expelled from the planet.
posted by panama joe at 11:04 PM on May 17, 2023
People who don't pick up after their dogs shouldn't be expelled from Cleveland — they should be expelled from the planet.
posted by panama joe at 11:04 PM on May 17, 2023
I personally know a lot of managers and executives who enjoy working remotely, or at very least don't relish the idea of having to pull up stakes and move to a different city so they can work from HQ.
No offense but you've been in the tech bubble too long. Not all of us are software engineers.
I have a close relative who's one of these executives - a senior VP for a major US company whose name you'd likely recognize - and she is going through this right now. After three years of highly successful remote work, she is being forced to do a cross-country move out of pocket to keep her job for no apparent reason at all. She gets head-hunted all the time, but virtually all employers in her field are the same way. She's at least making the big bucks and can easily afford the move, but it's still horribly disruptive (particularly as she took the job to help out an elderly family member, so much for that plan).
I'm getting hit by this as well - as a federal employee I will likely be affected by Congress's cruel and callous SHOW UP act, which serves to punish the entirety of the federal workforce to score political points. I can't exactly change jobs - I'm not young anymore (ageism is real), haven't worked in any other field in years and admittedly have a golden handcuff retirement plan I would be insane to walk away from. So my options are to completely trash my future or spend 2-3 hours a day sitting in DC traffic to join Teams meetings from a cubicle. Guess which option I will likely take.
posted by photo guy at 11:33 PM on May 17, 2023 [10 favorites]
No offense but you've been in the tech bubble too long. Not all of us are software engineers.
I have a close relative who's one of these executives - a senior VP for a major US company whose name you'd likely recognize - and she is going through this right now. After three years of highly successful remote work, she is being forced to do a cross-country move out of pocket to keep her job for no apparent reason at all. She gets head-hunted all the time, but virtually all employers in her field are the same way. She's at least making the big bucks and can easily afford the move, but it's still horribly disruptive (particularly as she took the job to help out an elderly family member, so much for that plan).
I'm getting hit by this as well - as a federal employee I will likely be affected by Congress's cruel and callous SHOW UP act, which serves to punish the entirety of the federal workforce to score political points. I can't exactly change jobs - I'm not young anymore (ageism is real), haven't worked in any other field in years and admittedly have a golden handcuff retirement plan I would be insane to walk away from. So my options are to completely trash my future or spend 2-3 hours a day sitting in DC traffic to join Teams meetings from a cubicle. Guess which option I will likely take.
posted by photo guy at 11:33 PM on May 17, 2023 [10 favorites]
Ugh, that's fucking awful. I'm sorry you have to deal with that.
Funny how whenever the office monsters inveigh against remote work, they always revert to abstract ideas about "the power of in-person collaboration" and never volunteer any actual hard evidence to support their case. Perhaps that is because all hard evidence points to remote work boosting productivity.
But yes, Elon Musk. Please do go on about remote workers moonlighting at two jobs and fucking off instead of working hard. Because we all know that never happened prior to 2020.
I think it really comes down to old people having old ideas, or even worse, young people having old ideas. Or in the case of government-mandated RTO policies, an attachment to old ideas about urban planning a need to pander to businesses with vested interests in the old status quo.
posted by panama joe at 11:49 PM on May 17, 2023
Funny how whenever the office monsters inveigh against remote work, they always revert to abstract ideas about "the power of in-person collaboration" and never volunteer any actual hard evidence to support their case. Perhaps that is because all hard evidence points to remote work boosting productivity.
But yes, Elon Musk. Please do go on about remote workers moonlighting at two jobs and fucking off instead of working hard. Because we all know that never happened prior to 2020.
I think it really comes down to old people having old ideas, or even worse, young people having old ideas. Or in the case of government-mandated RTO policies, an attachment to old ideas about urban planning a need to pander to businesses with vested interests in the old status quo.
posted by panama joe at 11:49 PM on May 17, 2023
Reasonably Everything Happens - I'm in agreement on the benefits of density and height and the culpability of racism, classism, and petroleum, and I don't think skyscrapers make even the top ten bad things about American cities. But I'm suspicious of them - office towers in particular - because they are a top-down, high-tech, high-maintenance, capital-intensive, and typically single-use solution to density, and one that I think often enables municipalities neighboring the CBD to mandate low density.
Denver is a great example of that - Boulder, Littleton, even Denver's own neighborhoods have maintained their low density in part because all the stuff got shoveled into downtown. If skyscrapers didn't exist, there would be a lot more pockets of density throughout the metro, which would be a lot more adaptable - they could ebb and flow, specialize, de-specialize, in a much more organic way (I'm thinking Jane Jacobs, Boston's North End, and Greenwich Village here). My understanding is the same thing has happened in the Bay Area: a lot of municipalities decided to opt out of density because it was happening elsewhere.
On the other hand, the saving grace of Denver's downtown right now are all the residential towers that have been built in the last 10 years.
posted by McBearclaw at 12:39 AM on May 18, 2023 [3 favorites]
Denver is a great example of that - Boulder, Littleton, even Denver's own neighborhoods have maintained their low density in part because all the stuff got shoveled into downtown. If skyscrapers didn't exist, there would be a lot more pockets of density throughout the metro, which would be a lot more adaptable - they could ebb and flow, specialize, de-specialize, in a much more organic way (I'm thinking Jane Jacobs, Boston's North End, and Greenwich Village here). My understanding is the same thing has happened in the Bay Area: a lot of municipalities decided to opt out of density because it was happening elsewhere.
On the other hand, the saving grace of Denver's downtown right now are all the residential towers that have been built in the last 10 years.
posted by McBearclaw at 12:39 AM on May 18, 2023 [3 favorites]
Or in the case of government-mandated RTO policies, an attachment to old ideas about urban planning a need to pander to businesses with vested interests in the old status quo.
Absolutely. Part of the reason the WH is pandering to this is because Bowser and the DC city council are complaining loudly about the lost tax revenue. Instead of trying to come up with a more sustainable solution, they are taking the easy way out and throwing us under the bus. Never mind the ecological costs of forcing people to drive in every day (because your transit system is a joke), nope gotta make sure those poor property investors keep the cash rolling in. How else are they going to afford their vacation houses?
At this point I'm just looking to retire the second I'm able and I think a lot of other workers feel the same way. The funny thing is that I actually don't mind working and would happily work longer if I could do so from wherever I wanted without the constant stress of commuting. Which is good for the economy, right? Don't we want people to keep working?
posted by photo guy at 2:13 AM on May 18, 2023 [5 favorites]
Absolutely. Part of the reason the WH is pandering to this is because Bowser and the DC city council are complaining loudly about the lost tax revenue. Instead of trying to come up with a more sustainable solution, they are taking the easy way out and throwing us under the bus. Never mind the ecological costs of forcing people to drive in every day (because your transit system is a joke), nope gotta make sure those poor property investors keep the cash rolling in. How else are they going to afford their vacation houses?
At this point I'm just looking to retire the second I'm able and I think a lot of other workers feel the same way. The funny thing is that I actually don't mind working and would happily work longer if I could do so from wherever I wanted without the constant stress of commuting. Which is good for the economy, right? Don't we want people to keep working?
posted by photo guy at 2:13 AM on May 18, 2023 [5 favorites]
> The doom loop phenomenon is entirely an online rage bait hellhole.
This -- and note that most of inflatablekiwi's list above are typical right-wing "news" propaganda targets.
posted by aught at 6:53 AM on May 18, 2023
This -- and note that most of inflatablekiwi's list above are typical right-wing "news" propaganda targets.
posted by aught at 6:53 AM on May 18, 2023
The local news source biggest on it here, practically having a dedicated correspondent to go down to 3rd and Pike and tut about it every week, is of course the Sinclair one.
posted by Artw at 6:57 AM on May 18, 2023
posted by Artw at 6:57 AM on May 18, 2023
as a federal employee I will likely be affected by Congress's cruel and callous SHOW UP act,
I hesitate to make too definitive pronouncements in this particular age, but the Senate's not going to pass it and Biden's not going to sign it.
posted by praemunire at 7:52 AM on May 18, 2023 [2 favorites]
I hesitate to make too definitive pronouncements in this particular age, but the Senate's not going to pass it and Biden's not going to sign it.
posted by praemunire at 7:52 AM on May 18, 2023 [2 favorites]
Denver is a great example of that - Boulder, Littleton, even Denver's own neighborhoods have maintained their low density in part because all the stuff got shoveled into downtown.
Those two just don't have anything to do with one another. Density regulations are top down, have probably existed around Denver for about 60+ years (most cities downzoned in the 1950s-1960s) so where density exists is a policy choice. Adding sporadic pockets of density doesn't really work that well, unless your goal is to be more like the Dallas/Ft Worth area.
San Francisco is the first US city that put together a top-down zoning document, in the 1920s (but didn't really get enacted until after WW2), that's explicit goal was to maximize property value to get rid of undesirable people.
posted by The_Vegetables at 8:49 AM on May 18, 2023
Those two just don't have anything to do with one another. Density regulations are top down, have probably existed around Denver for about 60+ years (most cities downzoned in the 1950s-1960s) so where density exists is a policy choice. Adding sporadic pockets of density doesn't really work that well, unless your goal is to be more like the Dallas/Ft Worth area.
San Francisco is the first US city that put together a top-down zoning document, in the 1920s (but didn't really get enacted until after WW2), that's explicit goal was to maximize property value to get rid of undesirable people.
posted by The_Vegetables at 8:49 AM on May 18, 2023
> It's a very different situation from, say, NYC, and in fact you could fit six San Franciscos inside NYC by area. I suspect it's not far off from what you'd get if Manhattan were required to operate itself as its own city.
San Francisco is about 1/2 the population of Manhattan, and like 1/5th the density. San Francisco isn't even as dense as Queens, and Queens is mostly suburbs!
I always chuckle when I see a story talking about the "Manhattanization" of SF. The Chronicle has opinion columnists and letter-writers who just invent bogey-men to joust with.
There is plenty of room to build. The permanent housing shortage, and the nascent office glut, are affirmative policy choices.
posted by your postings may, in fact, be signed at 9:17 AM on May 19, 2023 [1 favorite]
San Francisco is about 1/2 the population of Manhattan, and like 1/5th the density. San Francisco isn't even as dense as Queens, and Queens is mostly suburbs!
I always chuckle when I see a story talking about the "Manhattanization" of SF. The Chronicle has opinion columnists and letter-writers who just invent bogey-men to joust with.
There is plenty of room to build. The permanent housing shortage, and the nascent office glut, are affirmative policy choices.
posted by your postings may, in fact, be signed at 9:17 AM on May 19, 2023 [1 favorite]
San Francisco is a dystopian hellhole caught in doomloop and it is all because everyone hates techbros. Well, we are tired of being disrespected. Therefore we are going to attack those who can’t fight back, yes, poor people.
posted by Artw at 4:10 PM on May 20, 2023
posted by Artw at 4:10 PM on May 20, 2023
But yes, Elon Musk. Please do go on about remote workers moonlighting at two jobs and fucking off instead of working
Yeah, Elon is an expert at working for more than one company at a time and tweeting the whole time.
posted by rhizome at 9:53 PM on May 20, 2023 [5 favorites]
Yeah, Elon is an expert at working for more than one company at a time and tweeting the whole time.
posted by rhizome at 9:53 PM on May 20, 2023 [5 favorites]
Yeah, Elon is an expert at working for more than one company at a time and tweeting the whole time.
And given that those companies do not share an office, it’s a safe bet that he spends much of his time … as a remote worker!
posted by panama joe at 8:09 PM on May 24, 2023 [3 favorites]
And given that those companies do not share an office, it’s a safe bet that he spends much of his time … as a remote worker!
posted by panama joe at 8:09 PM on May 24, 2023 [3 favorites]
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