COVID-19 Global Real-time Visualizations
March 6, 2020 9:52 PM Subscribe
Johns Hopkins University's Coronavirus Resource Center and JHU's Center for Systems Science and Engineering have built a handy, dynamic, open-source live corona-tracking data visualization. • Mobile version here. • The World Health Organization has built a similar skin on their own data set.
Quick! Let's all go to Antarctica or Pitcairn Island to get away from it!
posted by hippybear at 10:34 PM on March 6, 2020 [7 favorites]
posted by hippybear at 10:34 PM on March 6, 2020 [7 favorites]
Falkland Islands seem to be doing okay as well.
posted by philip-random at 10:39 PM on March 6, 2020
posted by philip-random at 10:39 PM on March 6, 2020
Earlier today I learned of the most disturbing infection vector for COVID-19 so far: you can sing it to the tune of "Come On, Eileen".
posted by mhoye at 10:40 PM on March 6, 2020 [26 favorites]
posted by mhoye at 10:40 PM on March 6, 2020 [26 favorites]
mhoye: I dare you to write out a full parody lyric and record it and post it to MeFi Music.
posted by hippybear at 10:41 PM on March 6, 2020 [18 favorites]
posted by hippybear at 10:41 PM on March 6, 2020 [18 favorites]
Singaporean theatre actors Edward Choy and Jo Tan have got you covered there, with their Come On Eileen - Covid-19 parody video (FB link) posted 3 weeks ago when the country's disease threat level was upped to Orange and public panic ensued. (Alternate YouTube link)
posted by hellopanda at 11:12 PM on March 6, 2020 [24 favorites]
posted by hellopanda at 11:12 PM on March 6, 2020 [24 favorites]
This timeline is enduringly strange.
posted by hippybear at 11:13 PM on March 6, 2020 [20 favorites]
posted by hippybear at 11:13 PM on March 6, 2020 [20 favorites]
I hate being the scold on this one to all my friends saying "eh, this isn't nearly as bad as the seasonal flu" because I remind them that for certain folks like those of us with crappy respiratory systems this most definitely worrisome!
posted by drewbage1847 at 11:36 PM on March 6, 2020 [14 favorites]
posted by drewbage1847 at 11:36 PM on March 6, 2020 [14 favorites]
Covid 19... I'm down on my knees... And I'm puking out everything...
posted by kaibutsu at 11:37 PM on March 6, 2020
posted by kaibutsu at 11:37 PM on March 6, 2020
Since I live in a place with a small but growing number of cases, I made a model of how likely I am to get sick if I go out in public and interact with people. I was pleased to see that the risk is probably minimal at the moment. However, there are a few important-seeming unknowns I was not able to estimate in a way that satisfied me:
- The likelihood of transmission via a shared surface with a carrier. It seems like this report confidently establishes the likelihood of transmission via close contact at somewhere in the neighborhood of 1-5%, but how easy it is to leave the virus on a surface, how long the virus lasts in general on typical surfaces, and how easily I can pick up the virus from a surface, are a mystery to me.
- The likelihood that a person I come in close contact with is a carrier, given the number of carriers in the population and the likelihood of a carrier to be out in public. This sounds straightforward, but what I don't know how to account for is the effect where people I come in contact with will be likely to have a higher than average amount of contacts themselves, and thereby be more likely than average to be carriers.
Does anyone have any idea how to estimate these?
posted by value of information at 12:16 AM on March 7, 2020 [2 favorites]
- The likelihood of transmission via a shared surface with a carrier. It seems like this report confidently establishes the likelihood of transmission via close contact at somewhere in the neighborhood of 1-5%, but how easy it is to leave the virus on a surface, how long the virus lasts in general on typical surfaces, and how easily I can pick up the virus from a surface, are a mystery to me.
- The likelihood that a person I come in close contact with is a carrier, given the number of carriers in the population and the likelihood of a carrier to be out in public. This sounds straightforward, but what I don't know how to account for is the effect where people I come in contact with will be likely to have a higher than average amount of contacts themselves, and thereby be more likely than average to be carriers.
Does anyone have any idea how to estimate these?
posted by value of information at 12:16 AM on March 7, 2020 [2 favorites]
This is such a fascinating technological-application development we are living through. We are doing our best to track in close to real time a pandemic as it moves through our own species and document our findings to each other in effective communication styles. Humans are so weird and cool... If we figure out how to preserve this information and not totally die out, future historians will be very proud of us!
posted by zinful at 12:16 AM on March 7, 2020 [19 favorites]
posted by zinful at 12:16 AM on March 7, 2020 [19 favorites]
Our World in Data
Seattle Coronavirus Updates: "@UW @UWVirology has developed it's own #COVID19 test & expects to be testing 1k-1.5k people per day by the end of the week. Preparation began @ end of 2019, *just in case* it reached U.S."
A tiny pocket of competence: "It's telling that the first university to do this (to my knowledge) [all classes will meet virtually] is also the one with a lab doing a lot coronavirus testing."
Latest @CNN reporting:
Tehran's population: ~12 million: "We're estimating 30 to 40 percent of Tehran's population will be infected with COVID-19 by March 20."
Increase peak respirator capacity? "This is the 'ceiling' of the pandemic curve above which people are left unnecessarily to die."
posted by kliuless at 12:39 AM on March 7, 2020 [7 favorites]
Seattle Coronavirus Updates: "@UW @UWVirology has developed it's own #COVID19 test & expects to be testing 1k-1.5k people per day by the end of the week. Preparation began @ end of 2019, *just in case* it reached U.S."
A tiny pocket of competence: "It's telling that the first university to do this (to my knowledge) [all classes will meet virtually] is also the one with a lab doing a lot coronavirus testing."
Latest @CNN reporting:
4:25 p.m: Minnesota reports first coronavirus caseLet's talk math: "We're looking at about 1M US cases by the end of April, 2M by ~May 5, 4M by ~May 11, and so on. Exponentials are hard to grasp, but this is how they go. As the healthcare system begins to saturate under this case load, it will become increasingly hard to detect, track, and contain new transmission chains. In absence of extreme interventions, this likely won't slow significantly until hitting >>1% of susceptible population. What does a case load of this size mean for healthcare system?"
5:20 p.m: First coronavirus case in Oklahoma
6:35 p.m: Connecticut reveals first coronavirus case
7:18 p.m: First coronavirus case in Kentucky reported
8:05 p.m: Nebraska reports first coronavirus case
Tehran's population: ~12 million: "We're estimating 30 to 40 percent of Tehran's population will be infected with COVID-19 by March 20."
Increase peak respirator capacity? "This is the 'ceiling' of the pandemic curve above which people are left unnecessarily to die."
posted by kliuless at 12:39 AM on March 7, 2020 [7 favorites]
If you're interested in the data visualisation aspect of this, or would like to see the ways in which this can be a little misleading, there's a good critique here: https://www.esri.com/ arcgis-blog/ products/ product/ mapping/ mapping-coronavirus-responsibly/
As mentioned there, it's a shame that at the moment there are two key outliers in the data (the huge proportion of cases being in China and the giant case-count correction on 13th Feb) which mean that most automatically-drawn charts have most of their information largely obscured by these two numbers being in completely different orders of magnitude. Hand-fixing this is evidently beyond the resources of these organisations.
posted by merlynkline at 1:30 AM on March 7, 2020 [11 favorites]
As mentioned there, it's a shame that at the moment there are two key outliers in the data (the huge proportion of cases being in China and the giant case-count correction on 13th Feb) which mean that most automatically-drawn charts have most of their information largely obscured by these two numbers being in completely different orders of magnitude. Hand-fixing this is evidently beyond the resources of these organisations.
posted by merlynkline at 1:30 AM on March 7, 2020 [11 favorites]
Those fancy touchscreen soda dispensers in restaurants are one helluva potential transmission surface.
Luckily they register presses through folded receipt tape...
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 4:06 AM on March 7, 2020 [3 favorites]
Luckily they register presses through folded receipt tape...
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 4:06 AM on March 7, 2020 [3 favorites]
The visualisations are fine, but for simple numbers I like the worldometer page.
posted by antiwiggle at 4:17 AM on March 7, 2020 [3 favorites]
posted by antiwiggle at 4:17 AM on March 7, 2020 [3 favorites]
If "Come on Eileen" isn't doing it for you, try My Corona sung to to the tune My Sharona. I'm probably not helping over here. Sorry. I'll be in my bunker.
posted by which_chick at 4:27 AM on March 7, 2020 [6 favorites]
posted by which_chick at 4:27 AM on March 7, 2020 [6 favorites]
I was impressed by these Responsible Coronavirus Visualizations.
posted by jmfitch at 4:59 AM on March 7, 2020 [22 favorites]
posted by jmfitch at 4:59 AM on March 7, 2020 [22 favorites]
Amtrak Acela nonstop Washington-NY trains are being cancelled starting Tue Mar 10th.
posted by Harry Caul at 5:03 AM on March 7, 2020
posted by Harry Caul at 5:03 AM on March 7, 2020
One of the striking things about the US is that while coronavirus' spread is being facilitated by air travel, the cities with major airline hubs aren't necessarily being hit hard. Some (Washington, Detroit, Dallas) don't have any cases yet, and others (Atlanta, Denver, Minneapolis) only have one or two.
There could be any number of possible reasons (even without having to dip into conspiracy theories), the most worrisome of course being that airport and airline staff can't afford proper healthcare and don't get paid sick leave, so their conditions are simply going unreported.
posted by at by at 5:12 AM on March 7, 2020
There could be any number of possible reasons (even without having to dip into conspiracy theories), the most worrisome of course being that airport and airline staff can't afford proper healthcare and don't get paid sick leave, so their conditions are simply going unreported.
posted by at by at 5:12 AM on March 7, 2020
try My Corona sung to to the tune My Sharona.
Finally, someone less tasteful than Weird Al.
posted by zamboni at 5:29 AM on March 7, 2020 [2 favorites]
Finally, someone less tasteful than Weird Al.
posted by zamboni at 5:29 AM on March 7, 2020 [2 favorites]
The recent WHO report regarding China gave me some hope that the numbers being reported from China weren’t complete fabricated garbage. It’s certainly possible that the extreme measures that China implemented (locking down millions and millions of people to have extremely limited contact with each other) did indeed get their infection rate slowed dramatically.
So; uh, what happens when they stop? Because they can’t do that forever.
That’s rhetorical, by the way. We can all pretty much guess what happens when they stop.
posted by notoriety public at 5:32 AM on March 7, 2020
So; uh, what happens when they stop? Because they can’t do that forever.
That’s rhetorical, by the way. We can all pretty much guess what happens when they stop.
posted by notoriety public at 5:32 AM on March 7, 2020
So; uh, what happens when they stop? Because they can’t do that forever.
Outbreaks aren’t forever. You need to delay the spread long enough to flatten the peak below healthcare system capacity.
posted by zamboni at 5:44 AM on March 7, 2020 [27 favorites]
Outbreaks aren’t forever. You need to delay the spread long enough to flatten the peak below healthcare system capacity.
posted by zamboni at 5:44 AM on March 7, 2020 [27 favorites]
Outbreaks aren’t forever. You need to delay the spread long enough to flatten the peak below healthcare system capacity.
The concern is whether stopping the extreme countermeasures results in a new prompt peak. I think they’d have a hell of a time trying to clamp down for a second time.
posted by notoriety public at 6:26 AM on March 7, 2020 [2 favorites]
The concern is whether stopping the extreme countermeasures results in a new prompt peak. I think they’d have a hell of a time trying to clamp down for a second time.
posted by notoriety public at 6:26 AM on March 7, 2020 [2 favorites]
at by, you’re probably right. I’m currently at the Atlanta airport waiting for a connection. On my first flight, the person in front of me was talking to the flight attendant. She said they are not being tested. If they get sick, they’ve been told not to go to the doctor and instead self quarantine.
posted by kimdog at 6:35 AM on March 7, 2020 [3 favorites]
posted by kimdog at 6:35 AM on March 7, 2020 [3 favorites]
Those fancy touchscreen soda dispensers in restaurants are one helluva potential transmission surface.
Let the race between diabeetus and upper respiratory infection begin!
I've been wondering about this a lot at school/work; the cheapo water dispensers they moved to require every single person getting water to touch a little lever, and the design really doesn't discourage touching the nozzle with the rim of the vessel you're filling.
posted by aspersioncast at 6:43 AM on March 7, 2020
Let the race between diabeetus and upper respiratory infection begin!
I've been wondering about this a lot at school/work; the cheapo water dispensers they moved to require every single person getting water to touch a little lever, and the design really doesn't discourage touching the nozzle with the rim of the vessel you're filling.
posted by aspersioncast at 6:43 AM on March 7, 2020
We're definitely on the B ark.
posted by seanmpuckett at 6:45 AM on March 7, 2020 [5 favorites]
posted by seanmpuckett at 6:45 AM on March 7, 2020 [5 favorites]
One of the striking things about the US is that while coronavirus' spread is being facilitated by air travel, the cities with major airline hubs aren't necessarily being hit hard. Some (Washington, Detroit, Dallas) don't have any cases yet, and others (Atlanta, Denver, Minneapolis) only have one or two.
We really have no clue in the United States about where Covid-19 is present because the testing for it has been incredibly spotty.
posted by srboisvert at 6:53 AM on March 7, 2020 [22 favorites]
We really have no clue in the United States about where Covid-19 is present because the testing for it has been incredibly spotty.
posted by srboisvert at 6:53 AM on March 7, 2020 [22 favorites]
Mrs. freecell is an ace nurse and she pointed out this oddity: the the CDC clinical care reommendations state that
Healthcare personnel should care for patients in an Airborne Infection Isolation Room (AIIR).
As she pointed out, we haven't heard anything about COVID-19 being airborne in the way that, say, tuberculosis is. Hospitals don't have a large number of AIIRs (she says, I know nothing). What's going on here? Are they being over-cautious? Has CDC underfunding resulted in copy/paste or boilerplate text?
As I understand it, transmission by coughing or sneezing on/near someone isn't "airborne" but rather direct droplet transmission. True airborne transmission means that much smaller particles stay in the air for a long time (for example, well after someone infected leaves a space) and can be transmitted that way. So much worse.
posted by freecellwizard at 7:18 AM on March 7, 2020 [6 favorites]
Healthcare personnel should care for patients in an Airborne Infection Isolation Room (AIIR).
As she pointed out, we haven't heard anything about COVID-19 being airborne in the way that, say, tuberculosis is. Hospitals don't have a large number of AIIRs (she says, I know nothing). What's going on here? Are they being over-cautious? Has CDC underfunding resulted in copy/paste or boilerplate text?
As I understand it, transmission by coughing or sneezing on/near someone isn't "airborne" but rather direct droplet transmission. True airborne transmission means that much smaller particles stay in the air for a long time (for example, well after someone infected leaves a space) and can be transmitted that way. So much worse.
posted by freecellwizard at 7:18 AM on March 7, 2020 [6 favorites]
Never mind China, look to the US for the next big coronavirus crisis:
Yonden Lhatoo contrasts what China has done to contain the Covid-19 epidemic with how little the US is doing, warning that American complacency may turn out to be the real threat to the world
posted by growabrain at 7:29 AM on March 7, 2020 [8 favorites]
Yonden Lhatoo contrasts what China has done to contain the Covid-19 epidemic with how little the US is doing, warning that American complacency may turn out to be the real threat to the world
posted by growabrain at 7:29 AM on March 7, 2020 [8 favorites]
In the same vein as the links to responsible visualization jmfitch and merlynkline posted, I found it more useful to clone the Johns Hopkins data so I could make my own charts and maps. It's nice to not be stuck with someone else's choices about how to present data – there are so many more stories than can be told with a zoomable map with big and little circles. (And when you roll your own visualizations, you can use colors other than "deadly virus red".) Big thanks to the people practicing open science and open data during this public health problem.
I made the code available in an open-source repository.
posted by daveliepmann at 7:41 AM on March 7, 2020 [10 favorites]
I made the code available in an open-source repository.
posted by daveliepmann at 7:41 AM on March 7, 2020 [10 favorites]
...seeking 12 monkeys.
...what year is this?
posted by mule98J at 8:44 AM on March 7, 2020 [2 favorites]
...what year is this?
posted by mule98J at 8:44 AM on March 7, 2020 [2 favorites]
Coronavirus: Trump hurls insults as 21 cases confirmed on cruise ship
assuming Trump is the proverbial emperor with no clothes, it becomes easy to see something as simple-complex as a virus being the thing that finally explodes the facade, removes the blinders, puts the clear light of day on a bloated, ugly, naked man in such a way that pretty much nobody can deny it. Because there's something about our loved ones getting sick, maybe dying that forces us to actually acknowledge reality (for lack of a better word).
I'm hoping this doesn't happen. I'm hoping Trump's America is up to handling this crisis, perhaps in spite of him. I'm always hoping.
But I can definitely see the possibility of it looming, and if the Emperor's New Clothes taught me anything -- it's that you've got to be honest with yourself. You've got to at least be open to what your eyes are reporting.
posted by philip-random at 8:56 AM on March 7, 2020
assuming Trump is the proverbial emperor with no clothes, it becomes easy to see something as simple-complex as a virus being the thing that finally explodes the facade, removes the blinders, puts the clear light of day on a bloated, ugly, naked man in such a way that pretty much nobody can deny it. Because there's something about our loved ones getting sick, maybe dying that forces us to actually acknowledge reality (for lack of a better word).
I'm hoping this doesn't happen. I'm hoping Trump's America is up to handling this crisis, perhaps in spite of him. I'm always hoping.
But I can definitely see the possibility of it looming, and if the Emperor's New Clothes taught me anything -- it's that you've got to be honest with yourself. You've got to at least be open to what your eyes are reporting.
posted by philip-random at 8:56 AM on March 7, 2020
Does Metafilter have a perma thread on the virus?
posted by Beholder at 8:58 AM on March 7, 2020 [1 favorite]
posted by Beholder at 8:58 AM on March 7, 2020 [1 favorite]
there is this META:
Coronavirus check-in thread 2.0
posted by philip-random at 9:03 AM on March 7, 2020 [2 favorites]
Coronavirus check-in thread 2.0
posted by philip-random at 9:03 AM on March 7, 2020 [2 favorites]
The JHU dataset has time-series data for tons and tons of geographic locations, but they only plot it for "Mainland China" and "Other" in their visualization.
To get up-to-date time-series plots for my own area (Seattle, sigh), and to give my kid and her friends some simple Python dataviz tools to dork around with, I made a Jupyter notebook with a bunch of barplots and lineplots for various areas (King County, China, the US...) and then Binderized it. (Cell -> Run All to update with the latest data).
posted by gurple at 9:10 AM on March 7, 2020 [7 favorites]
To get up-to-date time-series plots for my own area (Seattle, sigh), and to give my kid and her friends some simple Python dataviz tools to dork around with, I made a Jupyter notebook with a bunch of barplots and lineplots for various areas (King County, China, the US...) and then Binderized it. (Cell -> Run All to update with the latest data).
posted by gurple at 9:10 AM on March 7, 2020 [7 favorites]
Never mind China, look to the US for the next big coronavirus crisis:
Yonden Lhatoo contrasts what China has done to contain the Covid-19 epidemic with how little the US is doing, warning that American complacency may turn out to be the real threat to the world
I could imagine it would not be unreasonable for some people in Northern border states to cross just to get tested and treated if there are outbreaks.
I can also imagine Canada closing to border to non-essential or non-commercial travel. I can't imagine them shutting down trucking though.
posted by srboisvert at 9:30 AM on March 7, 2020 [2 favorites]
Yonden Lhatoo contrasts what China has done to contain the Covid-19 epidemic with how little the US is doing, warning that American complacency may turn out to be the real threat to the world
I could imagine it would not be unreasonable for some people in Northern border states to cross just to get tested and treated if there are outbreaks.
I can also imagine Canada closing to border to non-essential or non-commercial travel. I can't imagine them shutting down trucking though.
posted by srboisvert at 9:30 AM on March 7, 2020 [2 favorites]
We're definitely on the B ark.
The B ark is the safest place to be in the current scenario because all the people who know how to sanitize telephones are here with us.
posted by heatherlogan at 9:34 AM on March 7, 2020 [38 favorites]
The B ark is the safest place to be in the current scenario because all the people who know how to sanitize telephones are here with us.
posted by heatherlogan at 9:34 AM on March 7, 2020 [38 favorites]
Automation has put the telephone sanitisers out of a job.
posted by mbrubeck at 10:02 AM on March 7, 2020 [1 favorite]
posted by mbrubeck at 10:02 AM on March 7, 2020 [1 favorite]
Does Metafilter have a perma thread on the virus?
News is still getting posted here: Modelling 2019-nCOV outbreak
And I'm running a bit behind, but I've also been adding relevant AskMes and resources to the MeFi Wiki Disaster Planning & Recovery page.
posted by katra at 10:29 AM on March 7, 2020 [9 favorites]
News is still getting posted here: Modelling 2019-nCOV outbreak
And I'm running a bit behind, but I've also been adding relevant AskMes and resources to the MeFi Wiki Disaster Planning & Recovery page.
posted by katra at 10:29 AM on March 7, 2020 [9 favorites]
This analysis takes the JHU dataset and renders it into normalized infections per country: https://www.meuleman.org/project/chasingcorona/
In my opinion, this is a better presentation of the absolute infection counts you see in the current dashboards, in that it highlights just how much of the effect of the virus is specific to how governments choose to react, in terms of testing, isolation, and other public health actions.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 10:40 AM on March 7, 2020 [2 favorites]
In my opinion, this is a better presentation of the absolute infection counts you see in the current dashboards, in that it highlights just how much of the effect of the virus is specific to how governments choose to react, in terms of testing, isolation, and other public health actions.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 10:40 AM on March 7, 2020 [2 favorites]
Here's a kinda-hilarious cost-benefit spreadsheet analysis of working from home:
https://www.getguesstimate.com/models/15212
posted by kaibutsu at 1:05 PM on March 7, 2020 [2 favorites]
https://www.getguesstimate.com/models/15212
posted by kaibutsu at 1:05 PM on March 7, 2020 [2 favorites]
Are there any estimates of undiagnosed cases in each country based on mortality, hospitilizations, etc? What about predictions of infection rate per country?
posted by RobotVoodooPower at 2:40 PM on March 7, 2020 [1 favorite]
posted by RobotVoodooPower at 2:40 PM on March 7, 2020 [1 favorite]
Amtrak Acela nonstop Washington-NY trains are being cancelled starting Tue Mar 10th.
Just to be clear this is the single daily train that ran without stopping in Baltimore, Wilmington, Newark or Philly. The rest of then schedule is unaffected. Also this train was just introduced last year and wound up not being as popular as they thought it would be since it just saves like 15 minutes but was way more expensive. Since they’re canceling it until Jun, it’s likely a way to quietly kill it without anyone noticing.
posted by jmauro at 2:50 PM on March 7, 2020 [8 favorites]
Just to be clear this is the single daily train that ran without stopping in Baltimore, Wilmington, Newark or Philly. The rest of then schedule is unaffected. Also this train was just introduced last year and wound up not being as popular as they thought it would be since it just saves like 15 minutes but was way more expensive. Since they’re canceling it until Jun, it’s likely a way to quietly kill it without anyone noticing.
posted by jmauro at 2:50 PM on March 7, 2020 [8 favorites]
The data for the Johns Hopkins viz is open, but the tech (ESRI ArcGIS) is absolutely not.
posted by rockindata at 3:51 PM on March 7, 2020 [1 favorite]
posted by rockindata at 3:51 PM on March 7, 2020 [1 favorite]
Here is an open source tracker using Shiny and leaflet (with link to code in menu): https://shiny.john-coene.com/coronavirus/
Outbreaks aren’t forever. You need to delay the spread long enough to flatten the peak below healthcare system capacity.
I like the figure, but can anyone explain why the area under the two curves seems about the same? Shouldn't the red area be much larger than the blue?
posted by piyushnz at 4:07 PM on March 7, 2020 [1 favorite]
Outbreaks aren’t forever. You need to delay the spread long enough to flatten the peak below healthcare system capacity.
I like the figure, but can anyone explain why the area under the two curves seems about the same? Shouldn't the red area be much larger than the blue?
posted by piyushnz at 4:07 PM on March 7, 2020 [1 favorite]
The area under the curves *should* be the same. The area represents everyone who gets infected. If the infection rate (ramp angle) is low enough, you never go above the carrying capacity of your healthcare system. However, if the ramp is too steep, you overwhelm the healthcare system, and lots of people who might have made it (not died or experience life-changing aftereffects) with effective medical intervention are left out in the cold, and die or are fucked for life.
posted by notsnot at 4:17 PM on March 7, 2020 [2 favorites]
posted by notsnot at 4:17 PM on March 7, 2020 [2 favorites]
Coronavirus: Trump hurls insults as 21 cases confirmed on cruise ship
BREAKING: "The American Conservative Union has learned that one of our CPAC attendees has unfortunately tested positive today for coronavirus."
Thoughts and prayers.
posted by hangashore at 4:22 PM on March 7, 2020 [16 favorites]
BREAKING: "The American Conservative Union has learned that one of our CPAC attendees has unfortunately tested positive today for coronavirus."
Thoughts and prayers.
posted by hangashore at 4:22 PM on March 7, 2020 [16 favorites]
The JHU visualization map looks like a thus-far slow motion version of that scene from War Games (with a comment containing a list of every battle W.O.P.R. fights).
posted by cenoxo at 4:31 PM on March 7, 2020 [2 favorites]
posted by cenoxo at 4:31 PM on March 7, 2020 [2 favorites]
A major blood bank here in Western Washington says that donations have fallen during the epidemic, and wants people to know that donating blood is safe. “There have been no reported cases of transfusion-transmitted coronavirus; and respiratory viruses, in general, are not known to be transmitted by blood transfusion. (Source: FDA)”
If you’re healthy and don’t have any specific risk factors for illness in the past 28 days, donating blood this month is one way you can do something active to help vulnerable people.
posted by mbrubeck at 4:50 PM on March 7, 2020 [9 favorites]
If you’re healthy and don’t have any specific risk factors for illness in the past 28 days, donating blood this month is one way you can do something active to help vulnerable people.
posted by mbrubeck at 4:50 PM on March 7, 2020 [9 favorites]
I was thinking the same thing about how places like Dallas, with one of the nations largest air hubs doesn’t have any cases, and my husband reminded me that there are no tests available, and even if there were, Texas is one of the least insured places in America and folks working at Sonic and Chili’s don’t have $3500 for a test, and can’t take off work for two weeks even if they have it. They’re going to take some DayQuil and go to work. Just like we all did when we worked gig jobs.
If we had free, fast testing like South Korea, and some rational leave policies, then I hunk we would see blooms of outbreaks all over the map.
Abut president pissypants doesn’t want “his numbers to go up”, so they are slow walking anything that might tell us what the real numbers look like. We’re all going to die because a malignant narcissist can’t stand to be told he’s wrong.
posted by SecretAgentSockpuppet at 5:59 PM on March 7, 2020 [16 favorites]
If we had free, fast testing like South Korea, and some rational leave policies, then I hunk we would see blooms of outbreaks all over the map.
Abut president pissypants doesn’t want “his numbers to go up”, so they are slow walking anything that might tell us what the real numbers look like. We’re all going to die because a malignant narcissist can’t stand to be told he’s wrong.
posted by SecretAgentSockpuppet at 5:59 PM on March 7, 2020 [16 favorites]
Coronavirus: Northern Italy quarantines 16 million people – Italy's prime minister has said at least 16 million people are now under lock-down in Lombardy region and also in 14 provinces until early April., BBC News Europe, March 8, 2020:
posted by cenoxo at 10:52 PM on March 7, 2020 [4 favorites]
The dramatic escalation in the country's efforts to contain the new coronavirus will close gyms, pools, museums and ski resorts. Wedding and funerals are also suspended under the mandatory quarantine.Viruses pay little attention to national borders, and are not held back by flags, politics, presidents, or prayers.
Italy is Europe's worst-hit country and reported a steep rise in virus infections on Saturday.
The new measures, which also apply to financial centre Milan and tourist hotspot Venice will last until 3 April. The death toll in Italy has passed 230, with officials reporting more than 50 deaths in 24 hours. The number of confirmed cases jumped by more than 1,200 to 5,883 on Saturday.
"We want to guarantee the health of our citizens. We understand that these measures will impose sacrifices, sometimes small and sometimes very big," Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte said early on Sunday. "But this is a time where we must take responsibility for ourselves."
People are unable to enter or leave the whole northern region of Lombardy, home to 10 million people, except for emergency access. Milan is the main city in the region. The same measures apply to 14 provinces including Venice, Parma and Modena, affecting a total of around 16 million people.
Prime Minister Conte said the provinces affected were Modena, Parma, Piacenza, Reggio Emilia, Rimini, Pesaro and Urbino, Alessandria, Asti, Novara, Verbano Cusio Ossola, Vercelli, Padua, Treviso and Venice.
...
Weddings and funerals have been suspended, as well as religious and cultural events. Cinemas, night clubs, gyms, swimming pools, museums and ski resorts have been closed. Restaurants and cafes can open between 06:00 and 18:00 but customers must sit at least a metre apart. People have been told to stay home as much as possible, and those who break the quarantine could face three months in jail. Sports competitions will close to the public, and the president of Italy's football players' union has called for all matches to be postponed.
...
posted by cenoxo at 10:52 PM on March 7, 2020 [4 favorites]
Does anyone know of a dataset that has separate counts for cases of presumed known origin, and community-acquired cases?
Blending these together is frustrating to me, because each known community-acquired case is the tip of the iceberg, with undetected cases circulating who are the "siblings" of the known case (acquired from the same source), or the "cousins" if it's been multiple weeks. It could easily become irresponsible to circulate an estimate of the size of the iceberg given the unknown unknowns, but focusing attention on where there's community transmission is important for public understanding IMO.
posted by away for regrooving at 11:21 PM on March 7, 2020
Blending these together is frustrating to me, because each known community-acquired case is the tip of the iceberg, with undetected cases circulating who are the "siblings" of the known case (acquired from the same source), or the "cousins" if it's been multiple weeks. It could easily become irresponsible to circulate an estimate of the size of the iceberg given the unknown unknowns, but focusing attention on where there's community transmission is important for public understanding IMO.
posted by away for regrooving at 11:21 PM on March 7, 2020
The Schengen Agreement will complicate containment to Italy. I wonder what surrounding nations are doing for lines of in- and outgress and hope they have plans.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 11:22 PM on March 7, 2020
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 11:22 PM on March 7, 2020
I don't need to know that a French football match has been postponed or that an Iranian MP tested positive
Without disagreeing with your broader point about sensationalizing the news, these are both important. France postponing games sets an important norm that people need to know is necessary, and that everyone should monitor the efficacy of. The situation in Iran is of permanent geopolitical importance—eight percent of their parliament is infected, and multiple high level politicians have died. This matters for Iran's standing in the world and it gives us an important datapoint for how politicians and candidates in the US might want to handle large crowds.
"I don't need to know about how it's playing out globally" is only true if you think the US can't learn from other countries mistakes and successes.
posted by daveliepmann at 3:52 AM on March 8, 2020 [11 favorites]
Without disagreeing with your broader point about sensationalizing the news, these are both important. France postponing games sets an important norm that people need to know is necessary, and that everyone should monitor the efficacy of. The situation in Iran is of permanent geopolitical importance—eight percent of their parliament is infected, and multiple high level politicians have died. This matters for Iran's standing in the world and it gives us an important datapoint for how politicians and candidates in the US might want to handle large crowds.
"I don't need to know about how it's playing out globally" is only true if you think the US can't learn from other countries mistakes and successes.
posted by daveliepmann at 3:52 AM on March 8, 2020 [11 favorites]
United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
What You Should Know
See also WHO | World Health Organization > Find out more > Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak.
posted by cenoxo at 5:53 AM on March 8, 2020 [7 favorites]
Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
What You Should Know
- People at Higher Risk
- How It Spreads
- Symptoms
- Prevention & Treatment
- Frequently Asked Questions
- About COVID-19
See also WHO | World Health Organization > Find out more > Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak.
posted by cenoxo at 5:53 AM on March 8, 2020 [7 favorites]
U.S. CDC coronavirus case data and maps are at Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the U.S..
posted by cenoxo at 6:29 AM on March 8, 2020 [1 favorite]
posted by cenoxo at 6:29 AM on March 8, 2020 [1 favorite]
U.S. CDC coronavirus case data and maps are at Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the U.S..
It's a valuable resource, but it should be noted that page only updates on weekdays. The data shown right now are as they were at 4 pm Thursday. The difference between that map and more current maps is striking as several states have reported their first case(s) since then.
posted by double block and bleed at 8:46 AM on March 8, 2020
It's a valuable resource, but it should be noted that page only updates on weekdays. The data shown right now are as they were at 4 pm Thursday. The difference between that map and more current maps is striking as several states have reported their first case(s) since then.
posted by double block and bleed at 8:46 AM on March 8, 2020
Included the CDC data/maps mainly for comparison to OP’s link to Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by Johns Hopkins CSSE. I doubt if any dashboard can keep up with real-time CV statistics: who knows where the world actually is along the curve until a literal post-mortem analysis takes place?
posted by cenoxo at 9:27 AM on March 8, 2020
posted by cenoxo at 9:27 AM on March 8, 2020
...the Schengen Agreement...
Wikipedia article for those (myself included) unfamiliar with it:
posted by cenoxo at 4:28 PM on March 8, 2020
Wikipedia article for those (myself included) unfamiliar with it:
The Schengen Agreement (English: /ˈʃɛŋən/) is a treaty which led to the creation of Europe's Schengen Area [*], in which internal border checks have largely been abolished. It was signed on 14 June 1985, near the town of Schengen, Luxembourg, by five of the ten member states of the then European Economic Community. It proposed measures intended to gradually abolish border checks at the signatories' common borders, including reduced-speed vehicle checks which allowed vehicles to cross borders without stopping, allowing residents in border areas freedom to cross borders away from fixed checkpoints, and the harmonisation of visa policies.[1]...*The Schengen Area:
...comprising 26 European states that have officially abolished all passport and all other types of border control at their mutual borders. The area mostly functions as a single jurisdiction for international travel purposes, with a common visa policy....May the mutual agreement survive: this is not a time for nationalism, fences, or foxholes. The microterrestrial aliens from inner space have invaded, and humanity needs to fight them across all borders.
...Of the 27 EU member states, 22 participate in the Schengen Area [map]. Of the five EU members that are not part of the Schengen Area, four—Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, and Romania—are legally obliged to join the area in the future, while the other one—Ireland—maintains an opt-out....
...has a population of over 420 million people and an area of 4,312,099 square kilometres (1,664,911 sq mi).[2] About 1.7 million people commute to work across a European border each day, and in some regions these people constitute up to a third of the workforce. Each year, there are 1.3 billion crossings of Schengen borders in total. 57 million crossings are due to transport of goods by road, with a value of €2.8 trillion each year....
posted by cenoxo at 4:28 PM on March 8, 2020
There was a recent article in JAMA praising Taiwan for it's response to COVID-19. The article says the government set up a hotline, made daily announcements to people, and has pretty much taken over the distribution, pricing, and production of masks (which they have already stockpiled 44 million in preparation for). One particularly interesting part is it's use of big data to track the disease and selectively quarantine people:
posted by FJT at 7:57 PM on March 8, 2020 [4 favorites]
Taiwan leveraged its national health insurance database and integrated it with its immigration and customs database to begin the creation of big data for analytics; it generated real-time alerts during a clinical visit based on travel history and clinical symptoms to aid case identification. It also used new technology, including QR code scanning and online reporting of travel history and health symptoms to classify travelers’ infectious risks based on flight origin and travel history in the past 14 days. Persons with low risk (no travel to level 3 alert areas) were sent a health declaration border pass via SMS (short message service) messaging to their phones for faster immigration clearance; those with higher risk (recent travel to level 3 alert areas) were quarantined at home and tracked through their mobile phone to ensure that they remained at home during the incubation period.I don't know if such response is technically or legally feasible in the US, but so far Taiwan has had 45 infections and one death
posted by FJT at 7:57 PM on March 8, 2020 [4 favorites]
You can toggle the columns from here, so it’s interesting to see, that the US has already the fifth highest number of dead in the world (even though much less than China, Italy & Iran), and that there’s no doubt the US had underreported cases up to now, which will surely grow fast soon. Germany for example has twice the number of cases as the US, but zero deaths. Other interesting conclusions...
posted by growabrain at 9:21 PM on March 8, 2020
posted by growabrain at 9:21 PM on March 8, 2020
Some time between last night and this morning, the Johns Hopkins CSSE map changed how cases are represented in Canada. Last night the map had bullets at proximal locations (eg, there were large red disks over Toronto and Vancouver, smaller red disks over Calgary and Montreal), and this morning there are only single markers over each province. So I can see there are 32 confirmed cases in Ontario but no further details as to where.
I assume this is on how Canada is reporting cases rather than how JH CSSE wants to display them, but I'm curious what instigated the change.
posted by at by at 7:04 AM on March 9, 2020
I assume this is on how Canada is reporting cases rather than how JH CSSE wants to display them, but I'm curious what instigated the change.
posted by at by at 7:04 AM on March 9, 2020
The Johns Hopkins CSSE map is showing Chinese provinces only and US states only instead of cities, so the change isn't just in Canada. Maybe there are just so many outbreak locations that the map can no longer run smoothly with city-level markers.
posted by maudlin at 8:27 PM on March 9, 2020 [4 favorites]
posted by maudlin at 8:27 PM on March 9, 2020 [4 favorites]
-XKCD: Scientific Briefing
-3blue1brown: Exponential growth and epidemics
-Mathematics of Epidemics on Networks: From Exact to Approximate Models (via)
posted by kliuless at 4:10 AM on March 10, 2020 [3 favorites]
-3blue1brown: Exponential growth and epidemics
-Mathematics of Epidemics on Networks: From Exact to Approximate Models (via)
posted by kliuless at 4:10 AM on March 10, 2020 [3 favorites]
From NYT live updates:
New York creates a “containment zone” in New Rochelle.posted by medusa at 10:30 AM on March 10, 2020
With New Rochelle, a small city just north of New York City in Westchester County, emerging as the center of the state’s outbreak, Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo of New York on Tuesday announced a targeted containment strategy to halt the spread of the virus.
The state’s plan focuses on a “containment area” in New Rochelle with a one-mile radius centered around a synagogue believed to be at the center of the cluster, officials said.
Schools and other large gathering facilities like community centers and houses of worship within the area will be closed for two weeks beginning on Thursday, Mr. Cuomo said. Businesses such as grocery stores and delis would remain open. The state did not plan to close streets or implement travel restrictions, he said.
“You’re not containing people,” he said. “You’re containing facilities.”
The state also planned to deploy the National Guard to the containment area to clean the schools and deliver food to quarantined residents, Mr. Cuomo said.
i want my mommy
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 11:07 AM on March 10, 2020 [8 favorites]
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 11:07 AM on March 10, 2020 [8 favorites]
here's the current UK dashboard from public health england.
You can zoom in to get detail on NHS areas and UTLA
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 3:14 AM on March 11, 2020
You can zoom in to get detail on NHS areas and UTLA
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 3:14 AM on March 11, 2020
'It's eye-opening how real this is': How coronavirus made it from CPAC to Congress
Coronavirus was likely to come to Congress one way or another. A veritable petri dish where tourists, constituents and lobbyists from across America visit daily and interact with staff and members. Capitol Hill was, in many ways, as vulnerable as any place to an epidemic.posted by medusa at 9:09 AM on March 11, 2020 [2 favorites]
"It's eye-opening how real this is," one Republican congressional aide told CNN.
Trump is the proverbial emperor with no clothes,
...clothes with no emperor....[FIFY]
posted by mule98J at 10:14 AM on March 11, 2020 [3 favorites]
...clothes with no emperor....[FIFY]
posted by mule98J at 10:14 AM on March 11, 2020 [3 favorites]
I've been following closely the confirmed cases via (covid19livestats.com) and it scares me how we didn't take precautions earlier? I mean even today (March 23) I still see crowds of people everywhere in New York.
posted by andrewmc at 4:48 PM on March 23, 2020
posted by andrewmc at 4:48 PM on March 23, 2020
Yeah, I work with an immunologist, and half the time since late February, she's been saying, "They should have been [putting this or that precaution] in place at least two weeks ago."
posted by not_on_display at 5:26 PM on March 23, 2020 [1 favorite]
posted by not_on_display at 5:26 PM on March 23, 2020 [1 favorite]
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