Ukraine war, summer grinds on
July 24, 2023 2:54 AM Subscribe
In the war in Ukraine, the Ukrainian counteroffensive is still going on, but with slower progress than many in the West had come to expect. Professor Phillips O'Brien tries to put it into perspective, and War on the Rocks has some musings on the future of offensive warfare. Respected analysts Micheal Kofman and Rob Lee have visited with the Ukrainian military, and the preliminary conclusion is that they have a number of challenges, including scaling up offensive operations. Their report is not ready, but you can hear some initial thoughts. Russian fortifications including minefields are holding up well to direct attack, and the focus is on reducing Russian combat power with artillery, now using the somewhat controversial cluster munitions provided by the USA. There have been a couple of deep strikes into Crimea, and the hit on a fuel depot caused the full closure of the already-damaged Kerch bridge.
Russia has let the grain export deal lapse, leading to soaring wheat prices around the world and even attacked Ukraine's grain export harbour facilities and other civilian targets. Today drones have impacted near military and intelligence facilities in Komsomolsky Prospect in Moscow, with no-one stepping up to claim responsibility.
In Russia, the conscription age was adjusted. Initial reports were that the age window was just to be moved a bit up, but in the end it was also widened, giving the state an opening to conscript a larger part of the population. In Russian schools combat UAVs have entered the curriculum, joining use of assault rifles and hand grenades that was added earlier in the war. There also seems to be a crackdown on unauthorised criticism of the authorities, with Igor "Strelkov" Girkin, ultranationalistic war criminal and now blogger, under arrest.
After their mutiny, a sizeable contingent of Wagner mercenaries are quartered in Belarus, where they train the Belarusian military and hold exercises close to the Polish border. At the same time, Lukashenko and Putin are publicly joking about sending them west into Poland.
When it comes to military aid, F-16 training is starting in August, but it's still unclear how many F-16s Ukraine will get and when. ATACMS are still off the table, and GLSDB will arrive in autumn at the earliest.
The war is still a terrible strain on the Ukrainian economy and civil society, and Support Ukraine Now has a number of ways for you to help.
Russia has let the grain export deal lapse, leading to soaring wheat prices around the world and even attacked Ukraine's grain export harbour facilities and other civilian targets. Today drones have impacted near military and intelligence facilities in Komsomolsky Prospect in Moscow, with no-one stepping up to claim responsibility.
In Russia, the conscription age was adjusted. Initial reports were that the age window was just to be moved a bit up, but in the end it was also widened, giving the state an opening to conscript a larger part of the population. In Russian schools combat UAVs have entered the curriculum, joining use of assault rifles and hand grenades that was added earlier in the war. There also seems to be a crackdown on unauthorised criticism of the authorities, with Igor "Strelkov" Girkin, ultranationalistic war criminal and now blogger, under arrest.
After their mutiny, a sizeable contingent of Wagner mercenaries are quartered in Belarus, where they train the Belarusian military and hold exercises close to the Polish border. At the same time, Lukashenko and Putin are publicly joking about sending them west into Poland.
When it comes to military aid, F-16 training is starting in August, but it's still unclear how many F-16s Ukraine will get and when. ATACMS are still off the table, and GLSDB will arrive in autumn at the earliest.
The war is still a terrible strain on the Ukrainian economy and civil society, and Support Ukraine Now has a number of ways for you to help.
Thousands of Ukraine civilians are being held in Russian prisons. Russia plans to build many more [stellar reporting on horrifics by the Associated Press]
Fuck Putin.
posted by chavenet at 3:26 AM on July 24, 2023 [13 favorites]
Fuck Putin.
posted by chavenet at 3:26 AM on July 24, 2023 [13 favorites]
I still remain incandescent with rage that there is a land war in Europe - how many centuries of meat-grinding awfulness do you need to endure to realise that it should not be repeated, imitated, updated or ever be thought of again?
The bad news is that the war is going to grind on for a lot longer than it should because some snowflake's fee-fees are going to be hurt if he has to admit that he has learnt nothing from history, politics, or geography for that matter.
posted by Barbara Spitzer at 4:24 AM on July 24, 2023 [17 favorites]
The bad news is that the war is going to grind on for a lot longer than it should because some snowflake's fee-fees are going to be hurt if he has to admit that he has learnt nothing from history, politics, or geography for that matter.
posted by Barbara Spitzer at 4:24 AM on July 24, 2023 [17 favorites]
"somewhat controversial cluster munitions"?
Cluster munitions were discussed in length in the previous thread.
posted by miguelcervantes at 4:54 AM on July 24, 2023 [6 favorites]
Cluster munitions were discussed in length in the previous thread.
posted by miguelcervantes at 4:54 AM on July 24, 2023 [6 favorites]
Well, half the world's population live in states that haven't signed the treaty, including both parties in the war and the nation providing the munitions. English is my second language, so I apologise if I come across as glib or something.
posted by Harald74 at 4:56 AM on July 24, 2023 [19 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 4:56 AM on July 24, 2023 [19 favorites]
but with slower progress than many in the West had come to expect
Perhaps they are timing the counteroffensive to break though with the weather? Push the aggressors into a position where they leave or freeze?
posted by sammyo at 5:40 AM on July 24, 2023 [2 favorites]
Perhaps they are timing the counteroffensive to break though with the weather? Push the aggressors into a position where they leave or freeze?
posted by sammyo at 5:40 AM on July 24, 2023 [2 favorites]
Perhaps they are timing the counteroffensive to break though with the weather? Push the aggressors into a position where they leave or freeze?
My impression is that they are going as fast as they can, which is very slow because of minefields and competent/motivated Russian forces defending of positions. I think that a lot of the expectations of another quick breakthrough and rout of Russian forces was wishful thinking, and it is unfortunate that it shaped the expectations.
Mostly, Russia clearly failed over many months of trying to advance, but they probably have the strength to mostly hold their current territory, or at least keep the advance to a slow pace. I hope I am wrong and there is a major collapse, perhaps triggered by the behind the lines attacks on ammo depots and bridges. Or, that there is major turmoil in Russia (like, Putin drinks tea too close to a window) that changes all the dynamics.
posted by Dip Flash at 5:55 AM on July 24, 2023 [11 favorites]
My impression is that they are going as fast as they can, which is very slow because of minefields and competent/motivated Russian forces defending of positions. I think that a lot of the expectations of another quick breakthrough and rout of Russian forces was wishful thinking, and it is unfortunate that it shaped the expectations.
Mostly, Russia clearly failed over many months of trying to advance, but they probably have the strength to mostly hold their current territory, or at least keep the advance to a slow pace. I hope I am wrong and there is a major collapse, perhaps triggered by the behind the lines attacks on ammo depots and bridges. Or, that there is major turmoil in Russia (like, Putin drinks tea too close to a window) that changes all the dynamics.
posted by Dip Flash at 5:55 AM on July 24, 2023 [11 favorites]
They're pretty much grinding down Russian artillery, air defence and electronic warfare assets until conditions are ripe to advance again. That's how you do it when you can't contest the air space, and actually care if your people live or die.
I also think they are quietly hoping for some more political shenanigans in Russia. Remember, it's just weeks ago since the mercenaries were marching on Moscow, something I would not have predicted this time last year.
posted by Harald74 at 5:58 AM on July 24, 2023 [32 favorites]
I also think they are quietly hoping for some more political shenanigans in Russia. Remember, it's just weeks ago since the mercenaries were marching on Moscow, something I would not have predicted this time last year.
posted by Harald74 at 5:58 AM on July 24, 2023 [32 favorites]
The Ukrainian Counteroffensive has been slower than expected partly due to skillful entrenchment/etc on the part of the Russian army, but primarily because the most effective weapons to soften the Russian army's rear has been kept to a trickle, almost withheld entirely.
Ukraine has needed ATACMS since day one and still can't threaten Russian military emplacements out of HIMARS range with consistency.
Russia has been able (when lucky enough to fire a missile that hits its target) to hit anywhere in Ukraine without any threat that military infrastructure inside Russia is at risk. Not having to protect their rear is exactly what allowed Prigozhin to move so rapidly on Moscow.
I've said it before and I'll say it again. We are LONG past due to stop forcing Ukraine to fight with one arm tied behind its back.
posted by tclark at 6:48 AM on July 24, 2023 [29 favorites]
Ukraine has needed ATACMS since day one and still can't threaten Russian military emplacements out of HIMARS range with consistency.
Russia has been able (when lucky enough to fire a missile that hits its target) to hit anywhere in Ukraine without any threat that military infrastructure inside Russia is at risk. Not having to protect their rear is exactly what allowed Prigozhin to move so rapidly on Moscow.
I've said it before and I'll say it again. We are LONG past due to stop forcing Ukraine to fight with one arm tied behind its back.
posted by tclark at 6:48 AM on July 24, 2023 [29 favorites]
Kofman and Lee’s impressions after touring the front, linked in the post, are worth a listen. They explain what lessons the Russian military drew from the failures of Kharkiv and Kherson, and why that has meant that the Ukrainian armed forces have had a much harder task this summer than last. It’s a sobering listen, but I’m glad I did, because I feel like I have a much clearer understanding of the situation on the front than I did before.
posted by Kattullus at 6:54 AM on July 24, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by Kattullus at 6:54 AM on July 24, 2023 [4 favorites]
Are we seeing a frozen conflict emerge?
posted by doctornemo at 7:02 AM on July 24, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by doctornemo at 7:02 AM on July 24, 2023 [2 favorites]
the extensive mining the russians have done to defend against the offensive is incredibly effective and achingly horrific. there will be mines left behind killing people for decades after this war comes to its conclusion. it’s just so horrible.
posted by dis_integration at 7:04 AM on July 24, 2023 [18 favorites]
posted by dis_integration at 7:04 AM on July 24, 2023 [18 favorites]
There were 2 articles last week, in WaPo and the NYT, that explored in detail the incredibly difficult task of advancing against the heavily mined Russian defenses. The big, loud, noisy demining equipment makes for a very easy target, for one, so Ukraine has to do the difficult work by hand, at twilight. Reading both of those pieces gave me a much better understanding of why the counteroffensive is going so slowly right now.
posted by mediareport at 7:23 AM on July 24, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by mediareport at 7:23 AM on July 24, 2023 [1 favorite]
I was expecting a triumphant Ukrainian sweep this summer, which goes to show I didn't understand the situation.
posted by Nancy Lebovitz at 7:31 AM on July 24, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by Nancy Lebovitz at 7:31 AM on July 24, 2023 [4 favorites]
there will be mines left behind killing people for decades after this war comes to its conclusion
If there is any justice, the demining work will be done by (former) Russian oligarchs, generals, and United Russia politicians and paid for by the proceeds of selling off their vacation homes, megayachts, etc.
posted by jedicus at 7:55 AM on July 24, 2023 [8 favorites]
If there is any justice, the demining work will be done by (former) Russian oligarchs, generals, and United Russia politicians and paid for by the proceeds of selling off their vacation homes, megayachts, etc.
posted by jedicus at 7:55 AM on July 24, 2023 [8 favorites]
It's been frozen. Barring escalation by either side (which hopefully nobody wants as there's no reason to destroy the entire earth over the Donbas), Russia has gone as far as it can go and Ukraine has gone as far as it can go. Russia de facto gets the territory it gained, the remaining Ukraine gets EU membership.
posted by kingdead at 8:06 AM on July 24, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by kingdead at 8:06 AM on July 24, 2023 [3 favorites]
^^ the certainty of your pronouncement belies the pure madness that can result from armed conflict. I'd say your prognosis is reasonable, but wars have a capacity to create unimaginable outcomes.
posted by elkevelvet at 8:12 AM on July 24, 2023 [11 favorites]
posted by elkevelvet at 8:12 AM on July 24, 2023 [11 favorites]
I'm giving the best case scenario here, I don't want to think about the ones with even more casualties. I'm a lover of humanity at heart...
posted by kingdead at 8:16 AM on July 24, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by kingdead at 8:16 AM on July 24, 2023 [1 favorite]
There is absolutely no reason to believe it's frozen yet. The conflict has shifted back to an attritional fight. It is very hard to tell how much of a toll attrition is truly taking on each side. The Ukrainian offensive still has months to go.
There was an interesting point, I think from Michael Kofman, about the greatest significance of US-supplied cluster munitions not being that they were cluster munitions (although their direct usefulness is relevant) but that the US has a stockpile of millions of shells that they weren't planning to ever use. This is a vast untapped supply that was slated for disposal. The capacity issues with ramping up artillery ammunition production to meet Ukraine's needs could be much less of an issue now.
posted by allegedly at 8:16 AM on July 24, 2023 [10 favorites]
There was an interesting point, I think from Michael Kofman, about the greatest significance of US-supplied cluster munitions not being that they were cluster munitions (although their direct usefulness is relevant) but that the US has a stockpile of millions of shells that they weren't planning to ever use. This is a vast untapped supply that was slated for disposal. The capacity issues with ramping up artillery ammunition production to meet Ukraine's needs could be much less of an issue now.
posted by allegedly at 8:16 AM on July 24, 2023 [10 favorites]
With the model of combat Ukraine is stuck with right now, defence is easier than attacking. If we wanted to see sweeping advances against Russia, they need at _least_ one of three things: major air superiority, substantially longer-range strike capability e.g. cruise/tactical ballistic missiles to attack Russian logistics, or the numbers, equipment and a place to bypass Russian defences. Ukraine can't just go round them, so trying to make a hole is the only option.
Right now, it's a grinding slug fest of artillery and clearing huge amounts of deep minefields. Forcing an armoured breakthrough isn't really a thing when mines, drones and anti-tank weapons are so effective now (as Russia discovered at great cost very early in the conflict), and Ukraine isn't willing to just march conscripts en-masse into the killing fields; which the Russians have also tried extensively and found didn't really work (it sort of bought them Bakhmut, at huge cost)
The earlier fast advances were because the Ukrainians were able to break through and threaten to cut off Russian forces, so the Russians had to withdraw or lose those troops. The Russians now have extensive defences on good terrain, are well dug in, have laid a lot of mines, and still have staggering amounts of artillery. That the Ukrainians are advancing at all is a testament to their professionalism and tenacity, and are holding back some of their best equipment and brigades so that if a breakthrough becomes possible, they will have forces ready to exploit it.
Their best bet is likely to just keep in the fight, and keep the pressure on the West to keep the supply of arms coming (especially air defences, to protect both the front line and rear areas better) and especially deliver air power and longer range strike capability they haven't yet, to degrade Russian artillery in particular and logistics in general. HIMARS was a big step, but they also need the longer range missiles it can fire. That, and hope for a further collapse in Russian morale that opens a door somewhere. Russia's cynical destruction of the Kakhovka dam was done to protect their Kherson flank, and getting across the Dnieper now is a suicidally tough proposition, constraining the places Ukraine can advance with what they have.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 8:20 AM on July 24, 2023 [18 favorites]
Right now, it's a grinding slug fest of artillery and clearing huge amounts of deep minefields. Forcing an armoured breakthrough isn't really a thing when mines, drones and anti-tank weapons are so effective now (as Russia discovered at great cost very early in the conflict), and Ukraine isn't willing to just march conscripts en-masse into the killing fields; which the Russians have also tried extensively and found didn't really work (it sort of bought them Bakhmut, at huge cost)
The earlier fast advances were because the Ukrainians were able to break through and threaten to cut off Russian forces, so the Russians had to withdraw or lose those troops. The Russians now have extensive defences on good terrain, are well dug in, have laid a lot of mines, and still have staggering amounts of artillery. That the Ukrainians are advancing at all is a testament to their professionalism and tenacity, and are holding back some of their best equipment and brigades so that if a breakthrough becomes possible, they will have forces ready to exploit it.
Their best bet is likely to just keep in the fight, and keep the pressure on the West to keep the supply of arms coming (especially air defences, to protect both the front line and rear areas better) and especially deliver air power and longer range strike capability they haven't yet, to degrade Russian artillery in particular and logistics in general. HIMARS was a big step, but they also need the longer range missiles it can fire. That, and hope for a further collapse in Russian morale that opens a door somewhere. Russia's cynical destruction of the Kakhovka dam was done to protect their Kherson flank, and getting across the Dnieper now is a suicidally tough proposition, constraining the places Ukraine can advance with what they have.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 8:20 AM on July 24, 2023 [18 favorites]
getting across the Dnieper now is a suicidally tough proposition
I have not seen it mentioned, but that is going to be much easier in the winter.
This is not in any way a frozen conflict, those happen when Russia holds all the cards and nobody else is paying attention. Expect a collapse of the Russian army at some point in the coming months, and then a rollback in Georgia and Moldova as well.
posted by Meatbomb at 8:26 AM on July 24, 2023 [7 favorites]
I have not seen it mentioned, but that is going to be much easier in the winter.
This is not in any way a frozen conflict, those happen when Russia holds all the cards and nobody else is paying attention. Expect a collapse of the Russian army at some point in the coming months, and then a rollback in Georgia and Moldova as well.
posted by Meatbomb at 8:26 AM on July 24, 2023 [7 favorites]
This is not in any way a frozen conflict, those happen when Russia holds all the cards and nobody else is paying attention.
I agree. The fighting at this moment is, if not stalemated, at least in a place of limited movement. But there are so many factors that could create huge swings very quickly -- another, more successful mutiny in Russia, say, or the continued (overly slow) influx of western arms grinding down Russian defenses to the point that there is at least a local collapse. And, to the extent that there is incremental progress currently, that is all on the side of the Ukrainians. It's not like they are pushing forward in some areas while Russians take territory in others, this is all in one direction currently.
And it's way too early to see what, if any, Russia's attacks on grain exports and Black Sea shipping will end up having. Maybe it helps them by starving Ukraine of exports, maybe it loses them an important portion of their current tacit support from the global south and China who count on those grain deliveries.
posted by Dip Flash at 8:43 AM on July 24, 2023 [4 favorites]
I agree. The fighting at this moment is, if not stalemated, at least in a place of limited movement. But there are so many factors that could create huge swings very quickly -- another, more successful mutiny in Russia, say, or the continued (overly slow) influx of western arms grinding down Russian defenses to the point that there is at least a local collapse. And, to the extent that there is incremental progress currently, that is all on the side of the Ukrainians. It's not like they are pushing forward in some areas while Russians take territory in others, this is all in one direction currently.
And it's way too early to see what, if any, Russia's attacks on grain exports and Black Sea shipping will end up having. Maybe it helps them by starving Ukraine of exports, maybe it loses them an important portion of their current tacit support from the global south and China who count on those grain deliveries.
posted by Dip Flash at 8:43 AM on July 24, 2023 [4 favorites]
https://www.npr.org/2023/07/14/1187641752/ioc-not-invite-russia-and-belarus-to-2024-olympics
We share the same biology, regardless of ideology
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 8:50 AM on July 24, 2023
We share the same biology, regardless of ideology
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 8:50 AM on July 24, 2023
Also, I've found myself wrong so many times about how this conflict will go (starting with being 100% sure that the war would last for days or a couple weeks at most), that while it is fascinating to speculate and to read informed analyses, I have very low confidence in all the predictions, most of all my own.
posted by Dip Flash at 8:51 AM on July 24, 2023 [12 favorites]
posted by Dip Flash at 8:51 AM on July 24, 2023 [12 favorites]
Military operations aside, the destruction(by Russia) of Crimea's external water supply will start to have a huge impact as local reservoirs dry up over the next year. I don't see how Russia can hold out long term while Ukraine has support from the US/Europe.
posted by being_quiet at 8:59 AM on July 24, 2023 [6 favorites]
posted by being_quiet at 8:59 AM on July 24, 2023 [6 favorites]
There were a few comments and articles linked to in the last thread talking about how Russia is prioritizing mine clearing equipment and the extensive mining with a stunningly wide array of mine types is what's slowing down the advance.
Even once a path is cleared, well, the enemy has a pretty good guess at the path they're going to take and can be confident it'll be a narrow lane instead of a widely spread assault.
Create some clever way to clear vast swaths of mines and the advance will speed up.
Or Ukraine could manage to penetrate far enough to get past any mines (seems like something you'd want to very confident about before you send a tanks and troop carriers speeding around the flanks or what have you) and be able to pour through that opening. Maybe Russia has to divert troops there and it's not very productive but now they've pulled troops from elsewhere on the front so maybe you can make another corridor.
It's all just swirling mists of tactical and strategic possibilities until something causes decisions to be made.
I know this metaphor likely sets up some good physics based snark, please bring your a-game.
posted by VTX at 9:02 AM on July 24, 2023 [1 favorite]
Even once a path is cleared, well, the enemy has a pretty good guess at the path they're going to take and can be confident it'll be a narrow lane instead of a widely spread assault.
Create some clever way to clear vast swaths of mines and the advance will speed up.
Or Ukraine could manage to penetrate far enough to get past any mines (seems like something you'd want to very confident about before you send a tanks and troop carriers speeding around the flanks or what have you) and be able to pour through that opening. Maybe Russia has to divert troops there and it's not very productive but now they've pulled troops from elsewhere on the front so maybe you can make another corridor.
It's all just swirling mists of tactical and strategic possibilities until something causes decisions to be made.
I know this metaphor likely sets up some good physics based snark, please bring your a-game.
posted by VTX at 9:02 AM on July 24, 2023 [1 favorite]
A frozen conflict is what happens when the fighting stops, but there's no official end to the war. North Korea vs. South Korea, for example.
That's not what's happening. There are hundreds of soldiers KIA every day, things are blowing up in big ways, the front line is shifting constantly, and so on. It's a hot war.
It would be politically impossible for Ukraine, or a part of Ukraine, to join the EU as is. Nor would it make sense so. As others have commented above: it looks like Ukraine is inflicting tremendous damage to Russian forces and logistics, so for them to just give up now wouldn't make sense...
.... and if they did, Russia would make another offensive as soon as it seems advantageous anyway.
Even if the counteroffensive is not moving as fast as many of us wish it could, it's anything but frozen.
posted by UN at 9:05 AM on July 24, 2023 [20 favorites]
That's not what's happening. There are hundreds of soldiers KIA every day, things are blowing up in big ways, the front line is shifting constantly, and so on. It's a hot war.
It would be politically impossible for Ukraine, or a part of Ukraine, to join the EU as is. Nor would it make sense so. As others have commented above: it looks like Ukraine is inflicting tremendous damage to Russian forces and logistics, so for them to just give up now wouldn't make sense...
.... and if they did, Russia would make another offensive as soon as it seems advantageous anyway.
Even if the counteroffensive is not moving as fast as many of us wish it could, it's anything but frozen.
posted by UN at 9:05 AM on July 24, 2023 [20 favorites]
a slight derail, but some 20+ years ago I watched a documentary about (Danish grad students/researchers I think?) who developed a modified plant or weed that, once sown in a mined area, would grow specific colours in response to certain trace elements in anti-personnel mines to assist in clearing.
it feels like we will find 100 ways to advance our slaughter of one another and one way to save lives, but still. The ingenuity of their research was inspiring. Here's an item with more info, I'd have to dig some more to find the doc.
posted by elkevelvet at 9:13 AM on July 24, 2023 [11 favorites]
it feels like we will find 100 ways to advance our slaughter of one another and one way to save lives, but still. The ingenuity of their research was inspiring. Here's an item with more info, I'd have to dig some more to find the doc.
posted by elkevelvet at 9:13 AM on July 24, 2023 [11 favorites]
Perun has an in-depth YouTube video on the Cluster Munitions issue if you want a thoughtfully organized background presentation.
posted by interogative mood at 9:14 AM on July 24, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 9:14 AM on July 24, 2023 [3 favorites]
Ukraine is advancing in multiple directions. They still have forces uncommitted to the counteroffensive and thus have available attack capable troops. The war is not frozen, and never really has been. The victory at Kherson took months of preparation and a couple of weeks where Russia was retreating/being pushed back from territory they couldn't hold. Ukraine is once again using that strategy, and will likely achieve success, though potentially not as dramatic as the Russian collapse in the north we saw earlier in the war.
Russia has been a clown show, but they are not completely incompetent. They have had a lot of time to prepare defenses, and have used that time. Defense doesn't require as much trained troops or equipment, and likes having lots of artillery. At last, a tactic that plays to Russian strengths! Plus having layers of defensive fortification hints at the Russian tradition of shooting your own troops if they try to retreat.
But Ukraine is advancing, Putin continues to run the war poorly, and political unrest in Russia is increasing. Troop morale has often been very poor, but that's not really new. Ukraine has the opportunity to find a weak spot and hammer it hard, or create one. I'm personally hopeful for Inchon or D-Day style crossing the Dnieper and rampaging through the south, past all the lines of Russian fortification, but we shall see. Ukraine is also extremely good at keeping plans quiet and secret, but have consistently shown that they are capable of making and executing big offensives.
Anything claiming that the counteroffensive has failed is incorrect. It's a process and the process is ongoing.
In addition to the loss of lives, the terror missiles and civilians being targeted, Russia continues to steal Ukraineian children
posted by Jacen at 9:14 AM on July 24, 2023 [16 favorites]
Russia has been a clown show, but they are not completely incompetent. They have had a lot of time to prepare defenses, and have used that time. Defense doesn't require as much trained troops or equipment, and likes having lots of artillery. At last, a tactic that plays to Russian strengths! Plus having layers of defensive fortification hints at the Russian tradition of shooting your own troops if they try to retreat.
But Ukraine is advancing, Putin continues to run the war poorly, and political unrest in Russia is increasing. Troop morale has often been very poor, but that's not really new. Ukraine has the opportunity to find a weak spot and hammer it hard, or create one. I'm personally hopeful for Inchon or D-Day style crossing the Dnieper and rampaging through the south, past all the lines of Russian fortification, but we shall see. Ukraine is also extremely good at keeping plans quiet and secret, but have consistently shown that they are capable of making and executing big offensives.
Anything claiming that the counteroffensive has failed is incorrect. It's a process and the process is ongoing.
In addition to the loss of lives, the terror missiles and civilians being targeted, Russia continues to steal Ukraineian children
posted by Jacen at 9:14 AM on July 24, 2023 [16 favorites]
Re: The Olympics:
posted by The Pluto Gangsta at 9:18 AM on July 24, 2023 [7 favorites]
However, even though the two countries will not receive invitations to participate as teams, individual athletes holding passports from Russia or Belarus may not be banned from Paris next year. [...] The consideration to still allow athletes holding Russian and Belarusian passports to participate in international competitions prompted the Ukrainian government to announce that its athletes should boycott competitions with Russian and Belarusian participants — including the Olympics.If athletes who vocally support Russia in the war are allowed to attend under a "neutral flag" then what the hell good is the neutrality? How could Ukrainian athletes feel safe under such an arrangement?
posted by The Pluto Gangsta at 9:18 AM on July 24, 2023 [7 favorites]
Supposedly the main reason the US and others have not committed to giving Ukraine very long range missile systems is the concern that Ukraine will use them to strike targets inside Russia, thus escalating the war beyond a purely defensive one. Setting aside the legitimacy of attacking military targets inside Russia (I think it's fair game, but whatever), it seems to me that the US or whoever could simply publicly announce "We are giving Ukraine X number of Fancy Weapons, but if Ukraine uses them to strike targets inside Russia, we will destroy the rest of the Fancy Weapons ourselves and deny future military aid to Ukraine".
Ukraine has already more than demonstrated that it can use the military aid that it has been given in a measured, responsible way, but if political cover is needed for more advanced weapons then we could create it. With that in place there's no reason we couldn't give Ukraine long-range cruise missiles, Predator drones, etc.
posted by jedicus at 9:27 AM on July 24, 2023 [1 favorite]
Ukraine has already more than demonstrated that it can use the military aid that it has been given in a measured, responsible way, but if political cover is needed for more advanced weapons then we could create it. With that in place there's no reason we couldn't give Ukraine long-range cruise missiles, Predator drones, etc.
posted by jedicus at 9:27 AM on July 24, 2023 [1 favorite]
It's not a frozen conflict until both sides freeze. Russia is still engaging in regular and ongoing war crimes by firing missiles at non-military targets in an attempt to terrorize the population of Ukraine.
I'd say it is more akin to the Battle of Britain but without airplanes but with Vengeance Weapons hitting Ukrainian cities every night. So currently a bit of stalemate with no side gaining or losing much ground but hostilities still very much ongoing.
I also blame the West for continuously giving Russia the opportunity to both build and evolve its defences. Russia must be both defeated and forced to live in the woods for a long time for this war to end. A negotiated peace will only be a window for more rebuilding of the Russian military. We know this because this war has been going on at various intensities for 10 years now. Russia also invaded Georgia in 2008, deployed chemical and radioactive agents on UK soil, and extensively interfered in European and American politics in criminal ways.
It's time for the West to realize that they have a real genuine and active persistent hostile imperial threat to the East.
I also think it is pretty sobering that this war is a harsh repudiation of NATO military doctrine and the belief that technique and technology can overcome huge numerical disparities. It really looks like the West gambled on a doctrine built around quick war. Either you win right away or you lose. They are completely unprepared and unserious about real wars.
posted by srboisvert at 9:28 AM on July 24, 2023 [15 favorites]
I'd say it is more akin to the Battle of Britain but without airplanes but with Vengeance Weapons hitting Ukrainian cities every night. So currently a bit of stalemate with no side gaining or losing much ground but hostilities still very much ongoing.
I also blame the West for continuously giving Russia the opportunity to both build and evolve its defences. Russia must be both defeated and forced to live in the woods for a long time for this war to end. A negotiated peace will only be a window for more rebuilding of the Russian military. We know this because this war has been going on at various intensities for 10 years now. Russia also invaded Georgia in 2008, deployed chemical and radioactive agents on UK soil, and extensively interfered in European and American politics in criminal ways.
It's time for the West to realize that they have a real genuine and active persistent hostile imperial threat to the East.
I also think it is pretty sobering that this war is a harsh repudiation of NATO military doctrine and the belief that technique and technology can overcome huge numerical disparities. It really looks like the West gambled on a doctrine built around quick war. Either you win right away or you lose. They are completely unprepared and unserious about real wars.
posted by srboisvert at 9:28 AM on July 24, 2023 [15 favorites]
If it were up to me the US would have sunk the Russian Black Sea fleet with our aircraft, demolished the Kerch Bridge and subjected Russian forces in Ukraine to the kind of air campaign we used against Saddam in 1991. Then when Russia complains we should just deny it .
posted by interogative mood at 9:29 AM on July 24, 2023 [6 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 9:29 AM on July 24, 2023 [6 favorites]
I also think it is pretty sobering that this war is a harsh repudiation of NATO military doctrine and the belief that technique and technology can overcome huge numerical disparities.
i don't get how the war can be a repudiation (harsh or otherwise) of nato military doctrine when said doctrine includes things like 'have a powerful air force' and 'use long range missiles', neither of which applies to ukraine.
the issue repeatedly brought up is that ukraine has (or is fast developing) the technique, but isn't being given the technology.
posted by inire at 9:33 AM on July 24, 2023 [14 favorites]
i don't get how the war can be a repudiation (harsh or otherwise) of nato military doctrine when said doctrine includes things like 'have a powerful air force' and 'use long range missiles', neither of which applies to ukraine.
the issue repeatedly brought up is that ukraine has (or is fast developing) the technique, but isn't being given the technology.
posted by inire at 9:33 AM on July 24, 2023 [14 favorites]
Deep State, which is pretty conservative in reporting such things, has reported a pretty solid Ukrainian advance south of Bakhmut in the last 24 hours.
posted by Harald74 at 9:38 AM on July 24, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by Harald74 at 9:38 AM on July 24, 2023 [1 favorite]
> Expect a collapse of the Russian army at some point in the coming months
People have been saying this since February 2022. Why would we expect it to ever happen? I think the Russians have shown they can maintain their supply chain and their influx of bodies to the conflict, and they have the population advantage on Ukraine, so I'm not optimistic there.
posted by dis_integration at 9:42 AM on July 24, 2023 [10 favorites]
People have been saying this since February 2022. Why would we expect it to ever happen? I think the Russians have shown they can maintain their supply chain and their influx of bodies to the conflict, and they have the population advantage on Ukraine, so I'm not optimistic there.
posted by dis_integration at 9:42 AM on July 24, 2023 [10 favorites]
I think the Russians have shown they can maintain their supply chain
This is why that bridge needs to go down, go completely down, in a way that takes long enough to repair that the people and army in Crimea and the Russian occupied Ukraine territory really feel a hard, tight pinch right in the supply chain.
posted by hippybear at 9:46 AM on July 24, 2023
This is why that bridge needs to go down, go completely down, in a way that takes long enough to repair that the people and army in Crimea and the Russian occupied Ukraine territory really feel a hard, tight pinch right in the supply chain.
posted by hippybear at 9:46 AM on July 24, 2023
It's tempting to take a linear approach-- Russia or Ukraine took this amount of land in this amound of time, so it would take years, decades, centuries to take Crimea. Except that wars don't work like that. Sudden collapses (non-linear events) happen.
For what it's worth, Constantine thinks Russia's economy is taken enough damage that they can't sustain the war. I hope so, but don't have a strong opinion for how long it might take to the collapse.
posted by Nancy Lebovitz at 9:51 AM on July 24, 2023 [7 favorites]
For what it's worth, Constantine thinks Russia's economy is taken enough damage that they can't sustain the war. I hope so, but don't have a strong opinion for how long it might take to the collapse.
posted by Nancy Lebovitz at 9:51 AM on July 24, 2023 [7 favorites]
Russia doesn't have a backup plan when it runs out of artillery
posted by 1970s Antihero at 9:54 AM on July 24, 2023 [5 favorites]
posted by 1970s Antihero at 9:54 AM on July 24, 2023 [5 favorites]
If it's frozen then it's temporarily frozen. When Ukraine gets tactical air, things will change. Maybe not dispositively, but it won't remain as static. And Ukraine may have decided its best not to waste more manpower or equipment until it does.
Any resumption of a real air war would test both sides' capabilities and commitment pretty quickly. I wouldn't be surprised if there are more total copies of the F-16 A/B/C in the world than Russia has remaining aircraft with air to air capability. Before getting into the AAM supply. Or sortie rates. But once F-16s start getting shot down, will there be will to replace them? And once Russian defensive lines are faced with on-call CAS, in the manner called for by NATO doctrine, will they be as able to remain in place and sustain those losses?
I agree with Kofman that its ultimately not weapons that win the war, but they do change the fighting.
If the West really wanted to take the gloves off, there could be a MiG Alley type situation, once the F-16s are there. Just keep any non-Ukrainian crews flying standoff missions far enough behind the forward line to avoid capture in any shoot-down.
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:02 AM on July 24, 2023 [1 favorite]
Any resumption of a real air war would test both sides' capabilities and commitment pretty quickly. I wouldn't be surprised if there are more total copies of the F-16 A/B/C in the world than Russia has remaining aircraft with air to air capability. Before getting into the AAM supply. Or sortie rates. But once F-16s start getting shot down, will there be will to replace them? And once Russian defensive lines are faced with on-call CAS, in the manner called for by NATO doctrine, will they be as able to remain in place and sustain those losses?
I agree with Kofman that its ultimately not weapons that win the war, but they do change the fighting.
If the West really wanted to take the gloves off, there could be a MiG Alley type situation, once the F-16s are there. Just keep any non-Ukrainian crews flying standoff missions far enough behind the forward line to avoid capture in any shoot-down.
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:02 AM on July 24, 2023 [1 favorite]
This is not a NATO war. This is pure Cold War fighting with drones. This is countries giving what they feel they can spare to a good cause, for political and logical reasons, plus the moral dictates. This war is trenches and mines, artillery duels and grinding assaults.
NATO war starts with "How many aircraft carriers do we need to smash the enemy air defense flat?" and then proceeds to cause country conquering levels of havoc. The fight so far is reminiscent of NATO plans: set up small forces as tripwires and alarms. The second stage of NATO hasn't really been launched in Ukraine, which would be "rain the thunder upon anything that raises it's head."
NATO war means unleashing the might of the largest, most powerful military in the world, with a coalition of most of the remaining other top militaries helping. The Ukraine war has nothing to do with NATO war. NATO war hasn't been exhibited in twenty years, not since Iraq and Afghanistan were, ah, liberated
posted by Jacen at 10:17 AM on July 24, 2023 [8 favorites]
NATO war starts with "How many aircraft carriers do we need to smash the enemy air defense flat?" and then proceeds to cause country conquering levels of havoc. The fight so far is reminiscent of NATO plans: set up small forces as tripwires and alarms. The second stage of NATO hasn't really been launched in Ukraine, which would be "rain the thunder upon anything that raises it's head."
NATO war means unleashing the might of the largest, most powerful military in the world, with a coalition of most of the remaining other top militaries helping. The Ukraine war has nothing to do with NATO war. NATO war hasn't been exhibited in twenty years, not since Iraq and Afghanistan were, ah, liberated
posted by Jacen at 10:17 AM on July 24, 2023 [8 favorites]
Logistics. Russia's Fragility in Zaporizhia [Mapped]
(YouTube video link.)
posted by UN at 10:40 AM on July 24, 2023 [2 favorites]
(YouTube video link.)
posted by UN at 10:40 AM on July 24, 2023 [2 favorites]
People have been saying this since February 2022. Why would we expect it to ever happen?
it is a bit like going bankrupt -- slowly then suddenly all at once.
posted by interogative mood at 10:49 AM on July 24, 2023 [16 favorites]
it is a bit like going bankrupt -- slowly then suddenly all at once.
posted by interogative mood at 10:49 AM on July 24, 2023 [16 favorites]
the destruction(by Russia) of Crimea's external water supply will start to have a huge impact as local reservoirs dry up over the next year.
Didn't Ukraine cut off Crimea's water supply back in 2014? Part of this invasion was to secure the water supply, so the collapse of the dam just resets it back to pre-2022.
On the other hand, the direct strikes on the bridge are unprecedented.
posted by meowzilla at 11:17 AM on July 24, 2023 [1 favorite]
Didn't Ukraine cut off Crimea's water supply back in 2014? Part of this invasion was to secure the water supply, so the collapse of the dam just resets it back to pre-2022.
On the other hand, the direct strikes on the bridge are unprecedented.
posted by meowzilla at 11:17 AM on July 24, 2023 [1 favorite]
This is pure Cold War fighting with drones. The Ukraine war has nothing to do with NATO war.
I seem to recall the Cold War being in a large part between proxies of NATO and the USSR.
Abrams and Leopard tanks and Bradleys and F-16s and HIMARS and Javelins and Harpoons and 155mm artillery production in nearby NATO countries have nothing to do with NATO war? Do the FORTE drones and AWACS flights over Romania and Poland have anything to do with NATO war? The drone boats the just hit the bridge? How about Storm Shadow? Will the GLSDB have anything to do with NATO when it arrives? When AMRAAMs are being shot at Sukhois, will that have anything to do with NATO war? How about Ukraine's years-long programs to adopt NATO doctrine and force organization and the recent summit about NATO accession?
No one is saying Ukraine is going to get to fight with the full force of NATO behind it. The point is that it is not presently able to fight in the manner it could with the equipment it could operate on its own, even without direct NATO participation, in the manner its modernization efforts call for, etc.
And, after this war, the way it's being fought presently may recur in new conflicts where there are armies without air forces but with drones.
posted by snuffleupagus at 11:28 AM on July 24, 2023 [2 favorites]
I seem to recall the Cold War being in a large part between proxies of NATO and the USSR.
Abrams and Leopard tanks and Bradleys and F-16s and HIMARS and Javelins and Harpoons and 155mm artillery production in nearby NATO countries have nothing to do with NATO war? Do the FORTE drones and AWACS flights over Romania and Poland have anything to do with NATO war? The drone boats the just hit the bridge? How about Storm Shadow? Will the GLSDB have anything to do with NATO when it arrives? When AMRAAMs are being shot at Sukhois, will that have anything to do with NATO war? How about Ukraine's years-long programs to adopt NATO doctrine and force organization and the recent summit about NATO accession?
No one is saying Ukraine is going to get to fight with the full force of NATO behind it. The point is that it is not presently able to fight in the manner it could with the equipment it could operate on its own, even without direct NATO participation, in the manner its modernization efforts call for, etc.
And, after this war, the way it's being fought presently may recur in new conflicts where there are armies without air forces but with drones.
posted by snuffleupagus at 11:28 AM on July 24, 2023 [2 favorites]
If it were up to me the US would have sunk the Russian Black Sea fleet with our aircraft, demolished the Kerch Bridge and subjected Russian forces in Ukraine to the kind of air campaign we used against Saddam in 1991.
...and thus kicked off World War III.
I don't know if you lived during the Cold War, but I did, and am so very, very glad this wasn't up to you.
posted by doctornemo at 11:42 AM on July 24, 2023 [22 favorites]
...and thus kicked off World War III.
I don't know if you lived during the Cold War, but I did, and am so very, very glad this wasn't up to you.
posted by doctornemo at 11:42 AM on July 24, 2023 [22 favorites]
Frozen conflict:
Thanks to everyone for your thoughtful responses to me quick, terse comment.
I certainly take the point about the difficulties in trying to ascertain a fluid situation on the ground from far off, when so much information is mediated by multiple layers of confusion, propaganda, and BS. That's one reason I posed my note as a question.
Perhaps Russia has or will accidentally surface a weak spot in its defensive lines, and at the same time Ukraine has capacity for a sudden line-breaking and exploitation. Or maybe Ukraine's force is brittle, and Russia has - somehow - the ability to poke a hole somewhere, either by force or starvation or economic warfare.
Maybe not. This is why I wrote "emerge." The Ukrainian offensive, however it's going, is still going to continue for a while. Russia definitely has every desire to punch back. Yet I wonder if a future DMZ is starting to appear.
That's if neither Kiev nor Moscow buckles.
posted by doctornemo at 11:49 AM on July 24, 2023
Thanks to everyone for your thoughtful responses to me quick, terse comment.
I certainly take the point about the difficulties in trying to ascertain a fluid situation on the ground from far off, when so much information is mediated by multiple layers of confusion, propaganda, and BS. That's one reason I posed my note as a question.
Perhaps Russia has or will accidentally surface a weak spot in its defensive lines, and at the same time Ukraine has capacity for a sudden line-breaking and exploitation. Or maybe Ukraine's force is brittle, and Russia has - somehow - the ability to poke a hole somewhere, either by force or starvation or economic warfare.
Maybe not. This is why I wrote "emerge." The Ukrainian offensive, however it's going, is still going to continue for a while. Russia definitely has every desire to punch back. Yet I wonder if a future DMZ is starting to appear.
That's if neither Kiev nor Moscow buckles.
posted by doctornemo at 11:49 AM on July 24, 2023
Didn't Ukraine cut off Crimea's water supply back in 2014? Part of this invasion was to secure the water supply, so the collapse of the dam just resets it back to pre-2022.
They did, and the water situation in Crimea pre-2022 was not great, water for 3-5 hours a day only and sometimes dirty/polluted.
posted by being_quiet at 11:54 AM on July 24, 2023 [1 favorite]
Dramatic video posted on social media captured the moment Russian forces launched an air strike on the Ukrainian port of Reni, which is just 200 meters across the river Danube from Romania, on July 24. Romanian President Klaus Iohannis condemned the attack, calling it an "escalation" that posed risks to wider security in the Black Sea region and global food security.200 meters.
Edit: checked the map. It's just across the river.
posted by UN at 12:20 PM on July 24, 2023 [1 favorite]
Appears the El Niño won't destroy wheat crops globally, more rearrange production [1, 2], despite whatever you hear from commodities brokers. We're similarly being given exaggerated stories of the importance of Ukraine's wheat exports being halted by Russia too.
posted by jeffburdges at 12:26 PM on July 24, 2023
posted by jeffburdges at 12:26 PM on July 24, 2023
But exactly how quickly can that production be arranged? What kind of supply chains are in existence to bring any crops that might be grown in these newly created breadbasket regions to distribute it?
The question isn't whether we will eventually adapt. The question is how many people die from lack of nutrition while we get all that figured out.
posted by hippybear at 12:29 PM on July 24, 2023 [1 favorite]
The question isn't whether we will eventually adapt. The question is how many people die from lack of nutrition while we get all that figured out.
posted by hippybear at 12:29 PM on July 24, 2023 [1 favorite]
I mean, this conversation isn't really about the climate crisis, but bringing up Ukraine does bring up the same questions -- these are grain supplies that were helping to feed parts of the world where they weren't already growing enough food for their own population. So... yeah, things can change. Meanwhile, harvest season for this year is fast upon us. And the port of Odessa just got the shit blown out of it.
posted by hippybear at 12:31 PM on July 24, 2023
posted by hippybear at 12:31 PM on July 24, 2023
The water situation is complicated by the need to not just meet consumer and agricultural demands but the large occupation army. There is also the problem of the newly occupied areas south of the Dniper that were formerly getting water from Kakhovka reservoir.
The overall situation in terms of Russia supply is difficult to know and constantly changing. NATO and Russia both started this war with very low volumes of output in terms of munitions manufacturing and had to draw down existing stockpiles to meet the high rate of fire. Production lines have had to be restarted, increased and factories built or expanded. Some things haven’t had new stock produced in so long that we’ve had to redesign the whole circuit board and port the code to a different microprocessor because the old stuff doesn't exist anymore (for example Stinger Missiles).
posted by interogative mood at 12:44 PM on July 24, 2023 [3 favorites]
The overall situation in terms of Russia supply is difficult to know and constantly changing. NATO and Russia both started this war with very low volumes of output in terms of munitions manufacturing and had to draw down existing stockpiles to meet the high rate of fire. Production lines have had to be restarted, increased and factories built or expanded. Some things haven’t had new stock produced in so long that we’ve had to redesign the whole circuit board and port the code to a different microprocessor because the old stuff doesn't exist anymore (for example Stinger Missiles).
posted by interogative mood at 12:44 PM on July 24, 2023 [3 favorites]
If it were up to me the US would have sunk the Russian Black Sea fleet with our aircraft, demolished the Kerch Bridge and subjected Russian forces in Ukraine to the kind of air campaign we used against Saddam in 1991.
Transitioning "The United States is attempting to eradicate the Russian sovereign state in its entirety!" from something that Putin is just pulling out of his ass into something that is actually true is a bold strategy, to say the least. Might as well pump a few hundred nuclear bombs into Moscow as a first strike and save everyone the hassle of "escalating" things into WWIII. If we do it that way, maybe it'll be over quick enough and we won't have to fight China and most of the rest of the EU at the same time.
posted by Back At It Again At Krispy Kreme at 12:45 PM on July 24, 2023 [4 favorites]
Transitioning "The United States is attempting to eradicate the Russian sovereign state in its entirety!" from something that Putin is just pulling out of his ass into something that is actually true is a bold strategy, to say the least. Might as well pump a few hundred nuclear bombs into Moscow as a first strike and save everyone the hassle of "escalating" things into WWIII. If we do it that way, maybe it'll be over quick enough and we won't have to fight China and most of the rest of the EU at the same time.
posted by Back At It Again At Krispy Kreme at 12:45 PM on July 24, 2023 [4 favorites]
China urges grain deliveres to resume. Pretty diplomatic language, of course, but one can wonder how impressed the Chinese are about the bombing of grain storage and infrastructure by the Russians.
posted by Harald74 at 12:55 PM on July 24, 2023 [6 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 12:55 PM on July 24, 2023 [6 favorites]
I was right about China's concern over Wheat. I wouldn't say frozen, static perhaps but Ukraine has been making gains daily. The mines, trench and arty Russian conundrum is tiring. Russia has fortified the easy Egress but not the whole line. Ukraine, I'm sure could carve a corridor for advance but they need several.
ISW
"The head of one of the largest suppliers of surveillance equipment to Russian special services died on July 22. Russian law enforcement found “IKS Holding” Head Anton Cherepennikov dead in his office on July 22 and later claimed that Cherepennikov suffocated during a xenon gas therapy session.[32] IKS Holding owns the developer of the YADRO data storage system, which Russian authorities reportedly use in efforts to monitor Russian internet users, and the Citadel Group, which produces operational-search measures that Russian special services use to listen to phone calls and monitor internet activities."
That's fucking stress.
posted by clavdivs at 1:39 PM on July 24, 2023 [6 favorites]
ISW
"The head of one of the largest suppliers of surveillance equipment to Russian special services died on July 22. Russian law enforcement found “IKS Holding” Head Anton Cherepennikov dead in his office on July 22 and later claimed that Cherepennikov suffocated during a xenon gas therapy session.[32] IKS Holding owns the developer of the YADRO data storage system, which Russian authorities reportedly use in efforts to monitor Russian internet users, and the Citadel Group, which produces operational-search measures that Russian special services use to listen to phone calls and monitor internet activities."
That's fucking stress.
posted by clavdivs at 1:39 PM on July 24, 2023 [6 favorites]
It is irresponsible how the media and our political leadership continue to promulgate one-sided and unrealistically optimistic appraisals of the war effort, and how information that might complicate public sentiment about this awful war is systematically avoided or suppressed. A war that (it bears repeating) could have been avoided, if George W. Bush hadn't bribed the former Warsaw Pact members into supporting the catastrophic invasion of Iraq, and letting the CIA run clandestine torture prisons on their territory, in return for NATO membership.
If the sad news from the "Spring Offensive" surprises you, that is because you've been lied to, and because vital information is being withheld from us. Perhaps worse, we don't even really (need to) care. After all, "the whole world is with us" — another lie that's just too convenient and flattering to allow it to be questioned or examined.
Even if Russia collapses tomorrow, and Ukraine joins NATO and the EU the day after that, the dark, boiling currents of resentment that have been stirred by the war, and are now swirling across the continent, will boost the sails of violence-loving fascists for decades to come, from the UK to Sweden to Finland to Poland — and, indeed, Ukraine and Russia. In the millions displaced, and the hundreds of thousands dead and maimed, and the stench of lies and broken promises, the seeds of vengeful passion have been sown, and you can already taste the jealous justice, bitter and green, unfurling its poisonous blossom over the land.
posted by dmh at 1:39 PM on July 24, 2023 [3 favorites]
If the sad news from the "Spring Offensive" surprises you, that is because you've been lied to, and because vital information is being withheld from us. Perhaps worse, we don't even really (need to) care. After all, "the whole world is with us" — another lie that's just too convenient and flattering to allow it to be questioned or examined.
Even if Russia collapses tomorrow, and Ukraine joins NATO and the EU the day after that, the dark, boiling currents of resentment that have been stirred by the war, and are now swirling across the continent, will boost the sails of violence-loving fascists for decades to come, from the UK to Sweden to Finland to Poland — and, indeed, Ukraine and Russia. In the millions displaced, and the hundreds of thousands dead and maimed, and the stench of lies and broken promises, the seeds of vengeful passion have been sown, and you can already taste the jealous justice, bitter and green, unfurling its poisonous blossom over the land.
posted by dmh at 1:39 PM on July 24, 2023 [3 favorites]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vhe3vSe-mmw
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 1:42 PM on July 24, 2023 [6 favorites]
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 1:42 PM on July 24, 2023 [6 favorites]
I've said it before and I'll say it again. We are LONG past due to stop forcing Ukraine to fight with one arm tied behind its back.I want to say up front that I am firmly on the side of Ukraine in this war, and that I would like very much to see us give more aid to Ukraine, including more operationally valuable weapons. With that said, I have to say that I really hate this sort of all-too-common phraseology.
We are not "forcing" Ukraine to do anything. This is not our conflict and it never has been. We are not and never have been under any sort of obligation to help Ukraine at all, in any way. In fact, the closest that "we" the US and the UK come to being obligated to help Ukraine is that we're obligated not to attack Ukraine unless Ukraine attacks us first. And "we" the rest of NATO, and more broadly "we" the West? Not even that, as far as I know.
And yet we have been, and will continue to be, giving Ukraine immense amounts of aid, militarily, economically, and diplomatically, without which I feel that only an ignorant, stupid, and/or insane person would think Ukraine would currently be better off without having received.
We are not "forcing" Ukraine to "fight with one arm tied behind its back". If anything, in that sort of analogy, we have given Ukraine a bionic arm that they can fight with.
At this point I would like to reiterate that I am firmly on Ukraine's side in this war, and would like very much to see us give more aid to Ukraine, including more operationally valuable weapons.
posted by Flunkie at 1:43 PM on July 24, 2023 [7 favorites]
In the millions displaced, and the hundreds of thousands dead and maimed, and the stench of lies and broken promises, the seeds of vengeful passion have been sown, and you can already taste the jealous justice, bitter and green, unfurling its poisonous blossom over the land.
I read this with my Walter Cronkite voice.
War Santa busy.
posted by clavdivs at 1:56 PM on July 24, 2023 [3 favorites]
I read this with my Walter Cronkite voice.
War Santa busy.
posted by clavdivs at 1:56 PM on July 24, 2023 [3 favorites]
In the millions displaced, and the hundreds of thousands dead and maimed, and the stench of lies and broken promises, the seeds of vengeful passion have been sown, and you can already taste the jealous justice, bitter and green, unfurling its poisonous blossom over the land.
you should look over the last 100 years or so of eastern european history, especially ukraine's - those seeds were planted a long time ago and what's happening now is a milder, yes, milder version of what happened back then
posted by pyramid termite at 2:02 PM on July 24, 2023 [11 favorites]
you should look over the last 100 years or so of eastern european history, especially ukraine's - those seeds were planted a long time ago and what's happening now is a milder, yes, milder version of what happened back then
posted by pyramid termite at 2:02 PM on July 24, 2023 [11 favorites]
A war that (it bears repeating) could have been avoided, if George W. Bush hadn't bribed the former Warsaw Pact members into supporting the catastrophic invasion of Iraq, and letting the CIA run clandestine torture prisons on their territory, in return for NATO membership.
That's quite the twisted timeline there.
In either case: the countries currently not currently being invaded by Russia? Not in NATO.
posted by UN at 2:11 PM on July 24, 2023 [14 favorites]
That's quite the twisted timeline there.
In either case: the countries currently not currently being invaded by Russia? Not in NATO.
posted by UN at 2:11 PM on July 24, 2023 [14 favorites]
I'd start with 'Cultures and Nations of Central and Eastern Europe : Essays in Honor of Roman Szporluk'
John-Paul Himka is a fine scholar and I found this "book review' fascinating.
posted by clavdivs at 2:21 PM on July 24, 2023 [2 favorites]
John-Paul Himka is a fine scholar and I found this "book review' fascinating.
posted by clavdivs at 2:21 PM on July 24, 2023 [2 favorites]
We're not discussing climate adaptation here, hippybear, which yes becomes impossible for 90% of the human population later this century, and hits maize countries by mid century. We're discussing a somewhat larger variance than what's usual right now. Africa kinda benefit from the El Niño according to the linked article.
Also, China would rationally prefer simpler & cheaper grain arrangements, but they could arrange whatever deal they like privately for Russian grain & fertilizer, so no real risks here for them. There exists nations who'll suffer from both the Ukraine war and the El Niño, and thus pay really high prices, but more places like Indonesia maybe.
posted by jeffburdges at 3:24 PM on July 24, 2023
Also, China would rationally prefer simpler & cheaper grain arrangements, but they could arrange whatever deal they like privately for Russian grain & fertilizer, so no real risks here for them. There exists nations who'll suffer from both the Ukraine war and the El Niño, and thus pay really high prices, but more places like Indonesia maybe.
posted by jeffburdges at 3:24 PM on July 24, 2023
A war that (it bears repeating) could have been avoided, if George W. Bush hadn't bribed the former Warsaw Pact members into supporting the catastrophic invasion of Iraq, and letting the CIA run clandestine torture prisons on their territory, in return for NATO membership.
Why do you think former Warsaw pact states wanted NATO membership? Perhaps we can ask Ukraine for commentary.
Can anyone get in touch with dmh directly? Some tankie seems to be making posts in their name.
posted by pwnguin at 3:33 PM on July 24, 2023 [14 favorites]
Why do you think former Warsaw pact states wanted NATO membership? Perhaps we can ask Ukraine for commentary.
Can anyone get in touch with dmh directly? Some tankie seems to be making posts in their name.
posted by pwnguin at 3:33 PM on July 24, 2023 [14 favorites]
‘No reason to doubt’ Putin's claims Russia moved nuclear weapons to Belarus (placed under Lukashenko's control)
posted by jeffburdges at 3:36 PM on July 24, 2023
posted by jeffburdges at 3:36 PM on July 24, 2023
Pretty much stopped paying attention to dmh after the casual blood libel signaling.
posted by snuffleupagus at 3:41 PM on July 24, 2023 [11 favorites]
posted by snuffleupagus at 3:41 PM on July 24, 2023 [11 favorites]
dmh: A war that (it bears repeating) could have been avoided, if George W. Bush hadn't bribed the former Warsaw Pact members into supporting the catastrophic invasion of Iraq, and letting the CIA run clandestine torture prisons on their territory, in return for NATO membership.
I see sentences like this all the time from people who mean well, but the problem with this sentiment is that it assumes countries that aren’t the US have no agency of their own, and just react to American actions. The former Warsaw Pact countries wanted to join NATO for reasons of their own, much like Sweden and Finland wanted to join NATO this year for reasons that have little to do with American geopolitical interests. Any country, even those with small populations (speaking as an Icelander) are complex societies and thinking of them only in relation to hegemonic empires is to fundamentally misunderstand them.
posted by Kattullus at 4:17 PM on July 24, 2023 [29 favorites]
I see sentences like this all the time from people who mean well, but the problem with this sentiment is that it assumes countries that aren’t the US have no agency of their own, and just react to American actions. The former Warsaw Pact countries wanted to join NATO for reasons of their own, much like Sweden and Finland wanted to join NATO this year for reasons that have little to do with American geopolitical interests. Any country, even those with small populations (speaking as an Icelander) are complex societies and thinking of them only in relation to hegemonic empires is to fundamentally misunderstand them.
posted by Kattullus at 4:17 PM on July 24, 2023 [29 favorites]
dmh didn't really derail the conversation, our snark has. The Rhetorical is good but suggests a return to season 5 of the walking dead. The hint at a return to murky eastern Europe fueled by resentment sounds like before the war. as if in some hyper analytic viewpoint but the world is not changed yet changing. I don't know European resentment, I really don't see it in the microcosm of economics namely in the military industrial complex of Ukraine's industrial capacity as the Central players in Ukraine before the war are China, Turkey, Russia, and the United States.
posted by clavdivs at 4:19 PM on July 24, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by clavdivs at 4:19 PM on July 24, 2023 [1 favorite]
Mod note: Folks, let's pause on derailing any further please. Keep the thread a productive and open space for others to participate.
posted by travelingthyme (staff) at 5:13 PM on July 24, 2023 [8 favorites]
posted by travelingthyme (staff) at 5:13 PM on July 24, 2023 [8 favorites]
I'm actually impressed by how President Biden is handling these events over the past year. He's cutting a thin line between not provoking global disaster and not letting Russia dominate the war.
We hope for the best and see how it goes. I've been a dove my whole life, but not this conflict. It's a grind until it's finally done.
posted by ovvl at 5:29 PM on July 24, 2023 [13 favorites]
We hope for the best and see how it goes. I've been a dove my whole life, but not this conflict. It's a grind until it's finally done.
posted by ovvl at 5:29 PM on July 24, 2023 [13 favorites]
I don't understand how people think the conflict is frozen. however it does suck.
If there's any failing, i see a failing of the media in not centering the human rights atrocities in the conflict. I suppose that is expensive and too much of a downer for the cable news networks to cover, and the temptation to put the pentagon on the screen for the millionth time is too much for them
I wish the powers that be would follow the investigations of the International Criminal Court and IAEA; perhaps it's beyond hope that the US would become a signatory of the ICC, but i'm distressed that people aren't being presented with the International Criminal Court as relevant to the conflict
and that "this is the US's fault" comment above is super weird, but I do believe that we would all be in a better place internationally if Dick Cheney had been brought to the Hague
We should be thinking about the war in a way that facilitates a better peace after the conflict is over. Bonds and loans should be given to Ukraine (and yes, Russia) that will enable countries to rebuild, but those plans have to follow the ways in which human rights are being deteriorated by the actors in the conflict
posted by eustatic at 6:03 PM on July 24, 2023 [4 favorites]
If there's any failing, i see a failing of the media in not centering the human rights atrocities in the conflict. I suppose that is expensive and too much of a downer for the cable news networks to cover, and the temptation to put the pentagon on the screen for the millionth time is too much for them
I wish the powers that be would follow the investigations of the International Criminal Court and IAEA; perhaps it's beyond hope that the US would become a signatory of the ICC, but i'm distressed that people aren't being presented with the International Criminal Court as relevant to the conflict
and that "this is the US's fault" comment above is super weird, but I do believe that we would all be in a better place internationally if Dick Cheney had been brought to the Hague
We should be thinking about the war in a way that facilitates a better peace after the conflict is over. Bonds and loans should be given to Ukraine (and yes, Russia) that will enable countries to rebuild, but those plans have to follow the ways in which human rights are being deteriorated by the actors in the conflict
posted by eustatic at 6:03 PM on July 24, 2023 [4 favorites]
I see sentences like this all the time from people who mean well, but the problem with this sentiment is that it assumes countries that aren’t the US have no agency of their own, and just react to American actions. The former Warsaw Pact countries wanted to join NATO for reasons of their own, much like Sweden and Finland wanted to join NATO this year for reasons that have little to do with American geopolitical interests. Any country, even those with small populations (speaking as an Icelander) are complex societies and thinking of them only in relation to hegemonic empires is to fundamentally misunderstand them.
Precisely. This tankie reading of world events gives only the U.S. and Russia agency... and in fact, Russia only has a kind of reactive agency, where everything they do, even bad things, can be explained by some prior bad thing that the U.S. did that was the "real" cause.
Meanwhile, the aspirations of smaller Eastern European nations are not even considered. They're treated purely as pawns on a chessboard. Ultimately, this is indistinguishable from an old-school "Great Game" imperialist worldview. Only the desires and actions of the great powers matter. Lesser nations just have to lie back and take it.
posted by Artifice_Eternity at 6:11 PM on July 24, 2023 [22 favorites]
Precisely. This tankie reading of world events gives only the U.S. and Russia agency... and in fact, Russia only has a kind of reactive agency, where everything they do, even bad things, can be explained by some prior bad thing that the U.S. did that was the "real" cause.
Meanwhile, the aspirations of smaller Eastern European nations are not even considered. They're treated purely as pawns on a chessboard. Ultimately, this is indistinguishable from an old-school "Great Game" imperialist worldview. Only the desires and actions of the great powers matter. Lesser nations just have to lie back and take it.
posted by Artifice_Eternity at 6:11 PM on July 24, 2023 [22 favorites]
...thus escalating the war beyond a purely defensive one.
I just want to emphasize that this sentiment from the US is utter bullshit. You get an enemy to stop fighting a war by making it hard for them to wage war, which means destroying strategic infrastructure in your enemy's home if you can.
Goodness knows that if Russia tried to invade NATO, the US and NATO would seek to establish air superiority and then bomb and strike the ever-loving-fuck out of all aspects of Russian military infrastructure and key industry assets as deep into Russia as possible.
posted by VTX at 6:16 PM on July 24, 2023 [9 favorites]
I just want to emphasize that this sentiment from the US is utter bullshit. You get an enemy to stop fighting a war by making it hard for them to wage war, which means destroying strategic infrastructure in your enemy's home if you can.
Goodness knows that if Russia tried to invade NATO, the US and NATO would seek to establish air superiority and then bomb and strike the ever-loving-fuck out of all aspects of Russian military infrastructure and key industry assets as deep into Russia as possible.
posted by VTX at 6:16 PM on July 24, 2023 [9 favorites]
I don't understand how people think the conflict is frozen.
I think they meant to use the term stalemate instead of frozen. In military/war parlance, stalemate is an active meat grinder without significant advancement of either belligerent (e.g. WW1 trench warfare).
It's unquestionably not a frozen conflict a la Korea, and I also don't think there's much evidence that the Counteroffensive has culminated and the war is turning into a stalemate. That may yet happen but it is definitely too soon to start calling stalemate when Ukraine's Counteroffensive is just weeks old. Notwithstanding their early failure to take Kyiv, it wasn't clear that Russia's invasion had culminated and their capability to advance was spent until several months had passed.
posted by tclark at 6:37 PM on July 24, 2023 [6 favorites]
I think they meant to use the term stalemate instead of frozen. In military/war parlance, stalemate is an active meat grinder without significant advancement of either belligerent (e.g. WW1 trench warfare).
It's unquestionably not a frozen conflict a la Korea, and I also don't think there's much evidence that the Counteroffensive has culminated and the war is turning into a stalemate. That may yet happen but it is definitely too soon to start calling stalemate when Ukraine's Counteroffensive is just weeks old. Notwithstanding their early failure to take Kyiv, it wasn't clear that Russia's invasion had culminated and their capability to advance was spent until several months had passed.
posted by tclark at 6:37 PM on July 24, 2023 [6 favorites]
I just want to emphasize that this sentiment from the US is utter bullshit. You get an enemy to stop fighting a war by making it hard for them to wage war, which means destroying strategic infrastructure in your enemy's home if you can.
The Vietcong and the Afghan mujahideen, just to name two examples, successfully drove out foreign invaders without ever doing this.
posted by AdamCSnider at 7:18 PM on July 24, 2023 [1 favorite]
The Vietcong and the Afghan mujahideen, just to name two examples, successfully drove out foreign invaders without ever doing this.
posted by AdamCSnider at 7:18 PM on July 24, 2023 [1 favorite]
Whatever the US says officially it's obvious the real reason for the decisions as to which weapons to withhold from Ukraine is to give them as much power as possible without triggering massive escalation from Russia. That's a fine line to tread but given that so far we've managed to get to the point of giving them Abrams tanks and F-16s, which seemed entirely unthinkable 16 months ago, I'm going to give the administration some pretty wide latitude here.
posted by Justinian at 7:19 PM on July 24, 2023 [8 favorites]
posted by Justinian at 7:19 PM on July 24, 2023 [8 favorites]
The VC and Afghans did that because they had no choice, at the cost of a massive casualty disparity, not because they chose not to. If the Vietnamese or Afghans had the ability to strike infrastructure in the US/Russia they most certainly would have.
Ukraine wouldn't and can't sustain a 10-1 casualty ratio like Vietnam.
posted by Justinian at 7:21 PM on July 24, 2023 [6 favorites]
Ukraine wouldn't and can't sustain a 10-1 casualty ratio like Vietnam.
posted by Justinian at 7:21 PM on July 24, 2023 [6 favorites]
The US has made clear multiple times that they're fine with Ukraine attacking Russia proper. What they're not fine with is Ukraine attacking Russia proper with weapons that they themselves provided to Ukraine....thus escalating the war beyond a purely defensive one.I just want to emphasize that this sentiment from the US is utter bullshit.
... is this now the part of the thread where people yell that we cannot mention, and must ignore, a large part of the reason why the US might want to provide its weapons to Ukraine only upon such a condition being agreed to by Ukraine?
posted by Flunkie at 7:39 PM on July 24, 2023 [5 favorites]
Ukraine wouldn't and can't sustain a 10-1 casualty ratio like Vietnam.
Vietnam and Afghanistan were 'limited' interventions (as far as the US populace was concerned) and their respective leaderships were wise to keep it that way.
I don't pretend to understand WTH is going on with Russia now (just watching the sicko mouthpieces on Russian Media Monitor clips sickens me) but I suspect they have the typical 20-20-20-20-20 mix most societies do (20% whacko, 20% bandwagon, 20% centrist, 20% minority and 20% radical opposition)
This will always be a war of choice for Russians. Not so for the Ukrainians.
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 8:17 PM on July 24, 2023 [3 favorites]
Vietnam and Afghanistan were 'limited' interventions (as far as the US populace was concerned) and their respective leaderships were wise to keep it that way.
I don't pretend to understand WTH is going on with Russia now (just watching the sicko mouthpieces on Russian Media Monitor clips sickens me) but I suspect they have the typical 20-20-20-20-20 mix most societies do (20% whacko, 20% bandwagon, 20% centrist, 20% minority and 20% radical opposition)
This will always be a war of choice for Russians. Not so for the Ukrainians.
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 8:17 PM on July 24, 2023 [3 favorites]
i'm distressed that people aren't being presented with the International Criminal Court as relevant to the conflict
I would like to know why the ICC is relevant to the conflict, since they have no power over anyone. AFAIK, there's an open arrest warrant for Putin since March 2023. One country, a signatory of the ICC, has openly stated they wouldn't arrest Putin and even invited him to visit.
posted by meowzilla at 9:19 PM on July 24, 2023 [3 favorites]
I would like to know why the ICC is relevant to the conflict, since they have no power over anyone. AFAIK, there's an open arrest warrant for Putin since March 2023. One country, a signatory of the ICC, has openly stated they wouldn't arrest Putin and even invited him to visit.
posted by meowzilla at 9:19 PM on July 24, 2023 [3 favorites]
Mod note: is this now the part of the thread where people yell that we cannot mention, and must ignore, a large part of the reason why ...
Please don't be obtuse about this. Making a remark that obvious thing is obvious and gracefully moving on with the discussion is fine. Digging into and dwelling on all sorts of theories and possibilities about Russia attacking with nukes when there isn't a compelling reason to do so (actual real news indicating that this is happening / very likely to imminently happen), to the degree that people who live in the affected areas cannot comfortably use these threads to keep up with updates isn't. And we simply ask that you create a new dedicated post if there is interesting analysis addressing this possibility, which isn't a ban on the topic.
posted by taz (staff) at 10:54 PM on July 24, 2023 [15 favorites]
Please don't be obtuse about this. Making a remark that obvious thing is obvious and gracefully moving on with the discussion is fine. Digging into and dwelling on all sorts of theories and possibilities about Russia attacking with nukes when there isn't a compelling reason to do so (actual real news indicating that this is happening / very likely to imminently happen), to the degree that people who live in the affected areas cannot comfortably use these threads to keep up with updates isn't. And we simply ask that you create a new dedicated post if there is interesting analysis addressing this possibility, which isn't a ban on the topic.
posted by taz (staff) at 10:54 PM on July 24, 2023 [15 favorites]
Fine, then:
As for why the US might want to provide its weapons to Ukraine only upon such a condition being agreed to by Ukraine, obvious thing is obvious: A direct attack on Russia proper with US weapons and with implicit condonation from the US could easily lead to massive escalation, potentially including nuclear war. Which would be bad.
posted by Flunkie at 11:17 PM on July 24, 2023 [3 favorites]
The US has made clear multiple times that they're fine with Ukraine attacking Russia proper. What they're not fine with is Ukraine attacking Russia proper with weapons that they themselves provided to Ukraine....thus escalating the war beyond a purely defensive one.I just want to emphasize that this sentiment from the US is utter bullshit.
As for why the US might want to provide its weapons to Ukraine only upon such a condition being agreed to by Ukraine, obvious thing is obvious: A direct attack on Russia proper with US weapons and with implicit condonation from the US could easily lead to massive escalation, potentially including nuclear war. Which would be bad.
posted by Flunkie at 11:17 PM on July 24, 2023 [3 favorites]
Ukraine’s Sustained Counteroffensive: Denying Russia’s Prolongation of the War
By Nataliya Bugayova
By Nataliya Bugayova
The West risks handing the Kremlin another opportunity to prolong its war in Ukraine if it fails to resource Ukraine’s sustained counteroffensive. Delays and fragmented aid are exactly what allowed Russia to regroup prior to the Ukrainian counteroffensive. The West must not wait on the results of the current phase of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, and, instead, help Ukraine maintain its momentum to prevent Russia from rebuilding its military strength and prolonging the war.posted by UN at 12:06 AM on July 25, 2023 [1 favorite]
The Western discussion of the prospects and timeline of Ukraine’s counteroffensive is skewed by a Western desire to see quick wins and Russia’s efforts to portray Ukraine’s counteroffensive as a failing undertaking. The discussion of Ukraine’s counteroffensive should recognize the following realities, however.
[...]
Ukraine’s sustained initiative, moreover, is an opportunity to exploit a Kremlin weakness. The Kremlin’s limited ability to rapidly pivot after consecutive setbacks is a known vulnerability – one that the West must help Ukraine exploit to secure the most advantageous position possible. Ukraine’s sustained initiative will likely have compounding effects on the Kremlin’s ability to sustain the war.
Russia almost always adapts in the kinetic and information space if given time. The Kremlin is actively investing in force regeneration and efforts to revamp its defense industrial base – efforts that may have limited results now but significant effects over time.
Yesterday's news:
IN PICTURES: The Devastating Aftermath of Russian Missile Strike on Odesa's Historic Heart
Ukrainian war reporters Kostiantyn and Vlada Liberov, originally from Odesa, captured the devastating aftermath of another relentless Russian attack on the historical centre of the southern city.
Putin Says Russia Will Replace Ukrainian Grain Shipments to Africa
Russia has in recent days targeted Ukraine's port infrastructure with a series of missile attacks in Odesa after it pulled out of the Black Sea Grain deal.
UNESCO Condemns 'Brazen' Russian Strike on Ukraine's Odesa
Ukraine's culture ministry said that it had thus far identified damage to 29 monuments of importance to the cultural heritage and history of the nation.
Russia Destroys Odesa's Orthodox Cathedral, Church Official Condemns Moscow's Patriarch Kirill
By attacking the city's most important religious building, a church aligned with Moscow, the Kremlin has further alienated remaining pro-Russian Ukrainians.
A Cry of Frustration but Not Despair, for Ukraine Will Win - But what Needs to be Done
Ukraine rightly asks its Western supporters to step up the military assistance and security it needs, but ultimately it will have to become self-reliant.
The Dilemma Facing Every 17-Year-Old Boy in Ukraine
Should I stay or should I go? Given the possibility of being drafted into a brutal fight, young men in Ukraine are faced with a potentially life-or-death decision.
A Day in the Life of Ukraine's 'Chaplain Battalion'
Convinced that "faith without works is dead," a battalion of Protestant pastors and volunteers help civilians and soldiers on Ukraine's front lines. Kyiv Post joins them for an exclusive report.
'Night Attack of the Monsters': At Least One Killed in Massive Overnight Russian Strike on Odesa
The city's largest cathedral was also damaged in the attack which used five different types of missiles. President Zelensky has vowed "retaliation against Russian terrorists."
Reznikov: Ukraine to share report on cluster munition use with US.
Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said in an interview broadcast on CNN on July 23 that he will share a report on Ukraine's use of cluster munitions with the Pentagon in the coming days.
UK Defense Ministry: Russian children to be taught combat drone operation.
British intelligence cites Artem Sheikin, a Russian senator, who announced that the curriculum will include lessons in terrain reconnaissance and countering Ukrainian drones. The move reportedly highlights how Russia considers the use of drones "an enduring component of contemporary war."
Russian attacks injure 8 people over past day.
Russian attacks targeted nine oblasts and injured eight people over the past day, local officials reported on July
24
Explosions reported in occupied Crimea, Russian proxy claims drone strike on ammunition depot.
The Russian proxy head in occupied Crimea, Sergey Aksyonov, claimed on July 24 that Ukrainian drones caused an explosion at an ammunition depot in the peninsula's Dzhankoi region. The Kyiv Independent could not independently verify Aksyonov's claim.
ISW: Putin reveals concern over potential threats Wagner Group, Prigozhin may pose to him.
Russian dictator Vladimir Putin made several significant symbolic gestures during his July 23 meeting with Alexander Lukashenko, the Institute for the Study of War said in their latest report.
Explosions reported in Moscow, mayor claims drone attack.
Russia's Defense Ministry reported on its Telegram channel that two drones hiat central Moscow in the early hours of July 24. Fragments of a drone were found later some two kilometers away from Russia's Defense Ministry's main building.
INTERVIEW
Jade McGlynn: Russians cannot perpetuate their myth of Russia if they lose control over Ukraine.
Russia shells 6 communities in Sumy Oblast.
Russian forces shelled six communities in Sumy Oblast on July 23, firing over 50 rounds from various types of weapons, the Sumy Oblast Military Administration reported on Telegram.
Zelensky: Ukraine expects to get more air defense, long-range weapons from partners.
President Volodymyr Zelensky said in a video address on July 23 that Ukraine and its partners are preparing new Western military aid packages, including air defense equipment, artillery and long-range weapons.
WAR UPDATE
Ukraine war latest: Russia bombards Odesa's historic center, kills 1, injures 21
UNESCO condemns Russian attacks against cultural heritage sites in Ukraine.
The United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) on July 23 condemned Russia's overnight missile strike targeting the Ukrainian city of Odesa.
Georgian president condemns Russia's deadly attack on Odesa, calls it 'another war crime'.
Georgian President Salome Zurabishvili on July 23 condemned Russia's overnight attack on Ukraine's Black Sea port of Odesa.
Zelensky: Ukraine needs stronger air defense to fight Russian missile terror.
President Volodymyr Zelensky said on July 23 that the only way for Ukraine to counter Russian missile strikes is to get a "full-fledged sky shield."
General Staff: Ukrainian troops fight in 27 clashes with Russian army.
The General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces reported on July 23 that 27 military engagements with Russian troops had taken place over the past day.
posted by DreamerFi at 12:15 AM on July 25, 2023 [10 favorites]
IN PICTURES: The Devastating Aftermath of Russian Missile Strike on Odesa's Historic Heart
Ukrainian war reporters Kostiantyn and Vlada Liberov, originally from Odesa, captured the devastating aftermath of another relentless Russian attack on the historical centre of the southern city.
Putin Says Russia Will Replace Ukrainian Grain Shipments to Africa
Russia has in recent days targeted Ukraine's port infrastructure with a series of missile attacks in Odesa after it pulled out of the Black Sea Grain deal.
UNESCO Condemns 'Brazen' Russian Strike on Ukraine's Odesa
Ukraine's culture ministry said that it had thus far identified damage to 29 monuments of importance to the cultural heritage and history of the nation.
Russia Destroys Odesa's Orthodox Cathedral, Church Official Condemns Moscow's Patriarch Kirill
By attacking the city's most important religious building, a church aligned with Moscow, the Kremlin has further alienated remaining pro-Russian Ukrainians.
A Cry of Frustration but Not Despair, for Ukraine Will Win - But what Needs to be Done
Ukraine rightly asks its Western supporters to step up the military assistance and security it needs, but ultimately it will have to become self-reliant.
The Dilemma Facing Every 17-Year-Old Boy in Ukraine
Should I stay or should I go? Given the possibility of being drafted into a brutal fight, young men in Ukraine are faced with a potentially life-or-death decision.
A Day in the Life of Ukraine's 'Chaplain Battalion'
Convinced that "faith without works is dead," a battalion of Protestant pastors and volunteers help civilians and soldiers on Ukraine's front lines. Kyiv Post joins them for an exclusive report.
'Night Attack of the Monsters': At Least One Killed in Massive Overnight Russian Strike on Odesa
The city's largest cathedral was also damaged in the attack which used five different types of missiles. President Zelensky has vowed "retaliation against Russian terrorists."
Reznikov: Ukraine to share report on cluster munition use with US.
Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said in an interview broadcast on CNN on July 23 that he will share a report on Ukraine's use of cluster munitions with the Pentagon in the coming days.
UK Defense Ministry: Russian children to be taught combat drone operation.
British intelligence cites Artem Sheikin, a Russian senator, who announced that the curriculum will include lessons in terrain reconnaissance and countering Ukrainian drones. The move reportedly highlights how Russia considers the use of drones "an enduring component of contemporary war."
Russian attacks injure 8 people over past day.
Russian attacks targeted nine oblasts and injured eight people over the past day, local officials reported on July
24
Explosions reported in occupied Crimea, Russian proxy claims drone strike on ammunition depot.
The Russian proxy head in occupied Crimea, Sergey Aksyonov, claimed on July 24 that Ukrainian drones caused an explosion at an ammunition depot in the peninsula's Dzhankoi region. The Kyiv Independent could not independently verify Aksyonov's claim.
ISW: Putin reveals concern over potential threats Wagner Group, Prigozhin may pose to him.
Russian dictator Vladimir Putin made several significant symbolic gestures during his July 23 meeting with Alexander Lukashenko, the Institute for the Study of War said in their latest report.
Explosions reported in Moscow, mayor claims drone attack.
Russia's Defense Ministry reported on its Telegram channel that two drones hiat central Moscow in the early hours of July 24. Fragments of a drone were found later some two kilometers away from Russia's Defense Ministry's main building.
INTERVIEW
Jade McGlynn: Russians cannot perpetuate their myth of Russia if they lose control over Ukraine.
Russia shells 6 communities in Sumy Oblast.
Russian forces shelled six communities in Sumy Oblast on July 23, firing over 50 rounds from various types of weapons, the Sumy Oblast Military Administration reported on Telegram.
Zelensky: Ukraine expects to get more air defense, long-range weapons from partners.
President Volodymyr Zelensky said in a video address on July 23 that Ukraine and its partners are preparing new Western military aid packages, including air defense equipment, artillery and long-range weapons.
WAR UPDATE
Ukraine war latest: Russia bombards Odesa's historic center, kills 1, injures 21
UNESCO condemns Russian attacks against cultural heritage sites in Ukraine.
The United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) on July 23 condemned Russia's overnight missile strike targeting the Ukrainian city of Odesa.
Georgian president condemns Russia's deadly attack on Odesa, calls it 'another war crime'.
Georgian President Salome Zurabishvili on July 23 condemned Russia's overnight attack on Ukraine's Black Sea port of Odesa.
Zelensky: Ukraine needs stronger air defense to fight Russian missile terror.
President Volodymyr Zelensky said on July 23 that the only way for Ukraine to counter Russian missile strikes is to get a "full-fledged sky shield."
General Staff: Ukrainian troops fight in 27 clashes with Russian army.
The General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces reported on July 23 that 27 military engagements with Russian troops had taken place over the past day.
posted by DreamerFi at 12:15 AM on July 25, 2023 [10 favorites]
Foreign Affairs: Putin Is Running Out of Options in Ukraine
Russian President Vladimir Putin set as his objectives the “denazification” and “demilitarization” of Ukraine. By the first, he presumably meant regime change, in which case the war has clearly been a failure. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s position is as strong as ever. As for demilitarization, Ukraine is on its way to becoming the most militarized country in Europe. Many of the Russian speakers in Ukraine on whose behalf Putin claimed to be acting now prefer to speak Ukrainian, while the Russian-speaking areas of the Donbas have been battered, deindustrialized, and depopulated because of this ruinous war.
posted by Harald74 at 12:44 AM on July 25, 2023 [4 favorites]
Russian President Vladimir Putin set as his objectives the “denazification” and “demilitarization” of Ukraine. By the first, he presumably meant regime change, in which case the war has clearly been a failure. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s position is as strong as ever. As for demilitarization, Ukraine is on its way to becoming the most militarized country in Europe. Many of the Russian speakers in Ukraine on whose behalf Putin claimed to be acting now prefer to speak Ukrainian, while the Russian-speaking areas of the Donbas have been battered, deindustrialized, and depopulated because of this ruinous war.
posted by Harald74 at 12:44 AM on July 25, 2023 [4 favorites]
From retired general Mick Ryan on Twitter: While the Russians in Ukraine have assumed the defensive over the past couple of months, that does not mean that they have been on the defensive at every level, and in every part of #Ukraine. A thread on Gerasimov's approach, 7 weeks into the Ukrainian offensives. 1/24 🧵
And a more detailed assesment on his Substack.
posted by Harald74 at 12:53 AM on July 25, 2023 [1 favorite]
And a more detailed assesment on his Substack.
posted by Harald74 at 12:53 AM on July 25, 2023 [1 favorite]
AFAIK, there's an open arrest warrant for Putin since March 2023. One country, a signatory of the ICC, has openly stated they wouldn't arrest Putin and even invited him to visit.I hope that this isn't a derail, but if this is in reference to Putin's possible attendance at the BRICS summit in South Africa later this year, this is inaccurate (or at least outdated). This issue has been the cause of a simmering political crisis for several months now, and a few days ago it was finally decided that Putin would teleconference in and send Lavrov instead. The local opposition also pressured the government into conceding that they would in fact have to arrest him if he entered the country.
I don't know enough about the internal mechanisms of our national politics to feel qualified to comment further about South Africa's relationship with Russia and its response to the war (although I certainly have theories and strong uninformed opinions, and I'll be watching the fallout of Putin's scuppering of the grain deal with interest). But this situation provoked an outcry pretty much immediately, and at no point did anyone seriously think that we could just dismiss the warrant and invite Putin over without any consequences. The ICC still has at least some influence.
posted by confluency at 2:53 AM on July 25, 2023 [12 favorites]
Thanks, Harald74 and confluency, for those useful links.
posted by mediareport at 5:25 AM on July 25, 2023
posted by mediareport at 5:25 AM on July 25, 2023
From the way it looked here, South Africa was being put in a really awkward, no-win situation, where if Putin were to show up there would be the unworkable choice of arresting him (and thereby provoking conflict with Russia) or not arresting him and thereby creating a crisis with the US and allies. The deal that was made for him to attend only virtually was not surprising at all given the dynamics and it's hard not to see that deal as a forgone conclusion.
All that said, the leadership in South Africa amplified the awkwardness and made things appear worse by their initial cozying up to Putin before belatedly accepting the reality of the situation. They could have gotten to the same result without all of the public waffling and would have looked better for it.
posted by Dip Flash at 7:08 AM on July 25, 2023 [1 favorite]
All that said, the leadership in South Africa amplified the awkwardness and made things appear worse by their initial cozying up to Putin before belatedly accepting the reality of the situation. They could have gotten to the same result without all of the public waffling and would have looked better for it.
posted by Dip Flash at 7:08 AM on July 25, 2023 [1 favorite]
Chatham House has released a report called How to end Russia’s war on Ukraine
First part of the summary:
First part of the summary:
It’s now or never for Ukraine. A protracted or frozen conflict benefits Russia and hurts Ukraine, as does a ceasefire or negotiated settlement on Russia’s terms. If Ukraine is to avoid these outcomes and turn tenacious defence and incremental battlefield gains into outright victory, it needs far more ambitious international military assistance than it has received to date. This report presents the case for an immediate and decisive increase in such support, seeks to dispel overhyped concerns about provoking Russia, and counsels against accommodating Moscow’s demands.posted by Harald74 at 7:22 AM on July 25, 2023 [9 favorites]
Ukraine’s need is all the more pressing because the United States – the principal donor of financial and military aid to Kyiv – is entering an election cycle that could soon reduce US foreign policy engagement or ultimately result in a more inward-looking administration in Washington. Increasing the West’s supply of weaponry for Ukraine now would, in addition to helping ongoing military actions against Russian forces, provide a measure of insulation against any future weakening of US solidarity.
The argument for Western military and diplomatic resolve is reinforced by the impacts of Russian aggression beyond Ukraine itself. Not only is European security under threat, but the viability of the rules-based international order is potentially at stake. With this full-scale invasion, Russia has directly challenged arrangements that have helped to secure peace for over 70 years. The world will be safer with Russia defeated soundly on the battlefield than with an ambiguous outcome that, for instance, institutionalizes Ukrainian territorial losses.
Remember, it's just weeks ago since the mercenaries were marching on Moscow, something I would not have predicted this time last year.
How many predictions were about the Ukrainian nation falling in the first week?
Note reports of things blowing up/burning within Russia. What was the plan for Ukraine if they had succeeded as the seized territory would be suffering from such sabotage/attacks?
Russia as a nation lacks births and a functional education system if Peter Zeihan's works are taken as truth.
As long as the Internet exists Russian citizens have outside sources of information they can obtain.
And Putin is an old man.
Long term Russia as it has existed the last 10-20 years is doomed. Any reforms will obtain pushback given the last kleptocratic result along with pointing at the economic bleeding of Ukraine this war is resulting in.
posted by rough ashlar at 7:46 AM on July 25, 2023 [1 favorite]
How many predictions were about the Ukrainian nation falling in the first week?
Note reports of things blowing up/burning within Russia. What was the plan for Ukraine if they had succeeded as the seized territory would be suffering from such sabotage/attacks?
Russia as a nation lacks births and a functional education system if Peter Zeihan's works are taken as truth.
As long as the Internet exists Russian citizens have outside sources of information they can obtain.
And Putin is an old man.
Long term Russia as it has existed the last 10-20 years is doomed. Any reforms will obtain pushback given the last kleptocratic result along with pointing at the economic bleeding of Ukraine this war is resulting in.
posted by rough ashlar at 7:46 AM on July 25, 2023 [1 favorite]
There's a constant stream of magical thinking around the war, usually centered around weapons: if only we gave Ukraine *this* weapon [Leopards, cluster munitions, long range missiles], or now that we've *trained* them this way [combined arms], they will surely win the war.
The reality is that this is an attritional war that looks like nothing more than WWI, defined by heavily defended front lines, grinding fighting that creates massive casualties, and slow advances. There's little that can change that, and nothing that will change the level of casualties. Existential wars (for Ukraine, for Putin) come with overwhelming violence & death. There's no magic method for avoiding that.
posted by Galvanic at 7:49 AM on July 25, 2023 [4 favorites]
The reality is that this is an attritional war that looks like nothing more than WWI, defined by heavily defended front lines, grinding fighting that creates massive casualties, and slow advances. There's little that can change that, and nothing that will change the level of casualties. Existential wars (for Ukraine, for Putin) come with overwhelming violence & death. There's no magic method for avoiding that.
posted by Galvanic at 7:49 AM on July 25, 2023 [4 favorites]
There's a constant stream of magical thinking around the war, usually centered around weapons: if only we gave Ukraine *this* weapon [Leopards, cluster munitions, long range missiles], or now that we've *trained* them this way [combined arms], they will surely win the war.
Nobody and I mean nobody said any of this. People have been urging their governments to support Ukraine with more weapons so that they can defeat Putin's army and to defend themselves against genocide.
Nobody said "Give them Leopards and magically Russia loses".
posted by UN at 8:37 AM on July 25, 2023 [3 favorites]
Nobody and I mean nobody said any of this. People have been urging their governments to support Ukraine with more weapons so that they can defeat Putin's army and to defend themselves against genocide.
Nobody said "Give them Leopards and magically Russia loses".
posted by UN at 8:37 AM on July 25, 2023 [3 favorites]
Nobody said "Give them Leopards and magically Russia loses".
with respect, the ebb and flow of much of the mainstream reporting on the invasion does tend to distill around these types of details. I think a majority of media consumers are getting the impression, at different points along the timeline, that all it would take is e.g. specific anti-missile and air defence weapons/technology.. more heavy armour (tanks).. jets in the air.. to make a significant difference.
I think Galvanic's point stands, not so much as a direct analogy to WWI casualties but certainly in terms of the way mass media focuses on weird details and many people seem to internalize the given narrative
posted by elkevelvet at 8:56 AM on July 25, 2023 [1 favorite]
with respect, the ebb and flow of much of the mainstream reporting on the invasion does tend to distill around these types of details. I think a majority of media consumers are getting the impression, at different points along the timeline, that all it would take is e.g. specific anti-missile and air defence weapons/technology.. more heavy armour (tanks).. jets in the air.. to make a significant difference.
I think Galvanic's point stands, not so much as a direct analogy to WWI casualties but certainly in terms of the way mass media focuses on weird details and many people seem to internalize the given narrative
posted by elkevelvet at 8:56 AM on July 25, 2023 [1 favorite]
with respect, the ebb and flow of much of the mainstream reporting on the invasion does tend to distill around these types of details.
It does, but the numbers they are receiving are far too low to make that much of a difference in the war - between overwhelming immediate victory. 85 Leopard tanks (for example) is about all that Ukraine got. The US has ~between 3000-10,000 M1A1 tanks. The scale is just way different. If Ukraine got 3000 Leopard tanks and could crew and support them, then it might actually make a real difference.
And the reason WWI battles haven't really been fought since...you know, because air action/long range weapons to destroy modern supply lines can wipe out an army (at least one that is not embedded locally) very quickly. It's not really comparable to Iraq or Afghanistan - Ukraine could fight Russia indefinitely assuming a ready supply of small arms and a desire to do so in guerilla fashion. That's probably what would have happened if Russia had been a competent and overwhelming force and taken the entire country.
posted by The_Vegetables at 9:55 AM on July 25, 2023 [2 favorites]
It does, but the numbers they are receiving are far too low to make that much of a difference in the war - between overwhelming immediate victory. 85 Leopard tanks (for example) is about all that Ukraine got. The US has ~between 3000-10,000 M1A1 tanks. The scale is just way different. If Ukraine got 3000 Leopard tanks and could crew and support them, then it might actually make a real difference.
And the reason WWI battles haven't really been fought since...you know, because air action/long range weapons to destroy modern supply lines can wipe out an army (at least one that is not embedded locally) very quickly. It's not really comparable to Iraq or Afghanistan - Ukraine could fight Russia indefinitely assuming a ready supply of small arms and a desire to do so in guerilla fashion. That's probably what would have happened if Russia had been a competent and overwhelming force and taken the entire country.
posted by The_Vegetables at 9:55 AM on July 25, 2023 [2 favorites]
There's little that can change that, and nothing that will change the level of casualties. Existential wars (for Ukraine, for Putin) come with overwhelming violence & death. There's no magic method for avoiding that.
I fundamentally disagree. Western military support has already changed the course of the war significantly from the very start. Western military aid and prior training, combined of course with Ukrainian resolve and bravery, was why Russia was not able to steamroller the Ukrainian military in 2022 as it did in 2014 with the 'little green men', and e.g. why so many Russian tank and APC crews met with an untimely end - due to NLAW, Javelin and Carl Gutaf weapons.
Ongoing supplies have expanded the Ukrainian army ability to fight back - so much so, instead of fighting a purely defensive war, as they have done for so much of it, they now have a number of modern brigades trained and equipped, allowing them to advance - slowly, sure, but their counter-offensive is ongoing, and the front line is anything but static.
A war where Ukraine quickly surrendered might have initially saved soldiers lives, but the civilian (and former soldier) casualties would have been unimaginable during the following purge, if Bucha and stolen children et al are anything to go by.
Driving Russia out of Ukraine has had, and will continue to have a terrible price in blood, and no amount of weapons can prevent that, I agree; but to say that they have made no difference at all to Ukrainian deaths and injuries is simply wrong. The large percentage of Russian missiles that have been intercepted with western-supplied multi-layered air defences proves that on its own, with every long-range strike on a city or front line position that is alas not able to be shot down.
What Ukraine currently lacks, and have been asking for from the start, is weapons that will allow the delivery of precision and overwhelming firepower in a small area, so then they can breakthrough, outflank and cut Russian supply lines and force enemy troops to surrender. To take advantage of the modern manoeuvre warfare that is NATO doctrine, and that they've now been equipped and trained to do, precisely SO they can break out of the WWI-esque trenches and artillery face-off that suits Russia's doctrine.
The Sept 22 advance southeast of Kharkiv was exactly that; it took meticulous planning, concentration of force, and substantial misdirection to allow them that breakout and subsequent rout of the Russians, and gained them 12,000 square km of Ukraine back, and pushed most Russian missile artillery out of range from the city. I've no idea how many civilian lives that has saved (hard to prove a counterfactual) - but given the regular murders by Russian occupation forces, it's unarguable there are people alive in the Kharkiv region today who would not be if Russia had been able to continue to occupy that land, kill the population they didn't like, and continue shelling the city at close range for 9 months more at the same volume they were, prior to that counter offensive.
The problem is, there don't appear to be any gaps in the Russian defensive lines to exploit ala Kharkiv any more, and making one is damned hard with the amount of time the Russians have had to dig in.
Ukraine has been fighting all this time with only a fairly small portion (and a lot of it old, surplus stock) of additional western military capability, and they're winning against an army that any pre-war assessment had Ukraine losing to in days, weeks at best. Of course so much of that is down to the Ukrainians themselves; but western aid, grudging as it has been at times, and keeping the most effective stuff out of their hands for so long, *has* made a difference.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 10:06 AM on July 25, 2023 [16 favorites]
I fundamentally disagree. Western military support has already changed the course of the war significantly from the very start. Western military aid and prior training, combined of course with Ukrainian resolve and bravery, was why Russia was not able to steamroller the Ukrainian military in 2022 as it did in 2014 with the 'little green men', and e.g. why so many Russian tank and APC crews met with an untimely end - due to NLAW, Javelin and Carl Gutaf weapons.
Ongoing supplies have expanded the Ukrainian army ability to fight back - so much so, instead of fighting a purely defensive war, as they have done for so much of it, they now have a number of modern brigades trained and equipped, allowing them to advance - slowly, sure, but their counter-offensive is ongoing, and the front line is anything but static.
A war where Ukraine quickly surrendered might have initially saved soldiers lives, but the civilian (and former soldier) casualties would have been unimaginable during the following purge, if Bucha and stolen children et al are anything to go by.
Driving Russia out of Ukraine has had, and will continue to have a terrible price in blood, and no amount of weapons can prevent that, I agree; but to say that they have made no difference at all to Ukrainian deaths and injuries is simply wrong. The large percentage of Russian missiles that have been intercepted with western-supplied multi-layered air defences proves that on its own, with every long-range strike on a city or front line position that is alas not able to be shot down.
What Ukraine currently lacks, and have been asking for from the start, is weapons that will allow the delivery of precision and overwhelming firepower in a small area, so then they can breakthrough, outflank and cut Russian supply lines and force enemy troops to surrender. To take advantage of the modern manoeuvre warfare that is NATO doctrine, and that they've now been equipped and trained to do, precisely SO they can break out of the WWI-esque trenches and artillery face-off that suits Russia's doctrine.
The Sept 22 advance southeast of Kharkiv was exactly that; it took meticulous planning, concentration of force, and substantial misdirection to allow them that breakout and subsequent rout of the Russians, and gained them 12,000 square km of Ukraine back, and pushed most Russian missile artillery out of range from the city. I've no idea how many civilian lives that has saved (hard to prove a counterfactual) - but given the regular murders by Russian occupation forces, it's unarguable there are people alive in the Kharkiv region today who would not be if Russia had been able to continue to occupy that land, kill the population they didn't like, and continue shelling the city at close range for 9 months more at the same volume they were, prior to that counter offensive.
The problem is, there don't appear to be any gaps in the Russian defensive lines to exploit ala Kharkiv any more, and making one is damned hard with the amount of time the Russians have had to dig in.
Ukraine has been fighting all this time with only a fairly small portion (and a lot of it old, surplus stock) of additional western military capability, and they're winning against an army that any pre-war assessment had Ukraine losing to in days, weeks at best. Of course so much of that is down to the Ukrainians themselves; but western aid, grudging as it has been at times, and keeping the most effective stuff out of their hands for so long, *has* made a difference.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 10:06 AM on July 25, 2023 [16 favorites]
a significant difference.
It has inarguably made a significant difference, for all the breathless and overblown reporting. You don't have to look to popular media for that, you can look to what Ukraine itself has said and continues to say, and ask for.
Or consider whether you believe the situation would be the same today had NATO members and other supporters of Ukraine had refused to assist as they have.
It may be that much of what isn't talked about has had some of the most meaningful results; like surveillance and targeting assistance. On paper, Ukraine doesn't have much in the way of AWACS and JSTARS and satellites and GlobalHawks. In reality....
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:19 AM on July 25, 2023 [2 favorites]
It has inarguably made a significant difference, for all the breathless and overblown reporting. You don't have to look to popular media for that, you can look to what Ukraine itself has said and continues to say, and ask for.
Or consider whether you believe the situation would be the same today had NATO members and other supporters of Ukraine had refused to assist as they have.
It may be that much of what isn't talked about has had some of the most meaningful results; like surveillance and targeting assistance. On paper, Ukraine doesn't have much in the way of AWACS and JSTARS and satellites and GlobalHawks. In reality....
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:19 AM on July 25, 2023 [2 favorites]
It really is worth reading the link at the top labelled "War on the Rocks has some musings on the future of offensive warfare":
Frustratingly that means we can't really tell who is "winning" in this phase. It could be that Ukraine will make a breakthrough. It could be their attack will fail. Both those things look the same at the early phase.
Even the WW1 trench stalemate wasn't about each side having a single, impervious line of defence. The critical concept is defence in depth. There are multiple lines of defence going deep. Breaking through the first line is easy. The problem is that as you advance the defender has emplacements, caches, communication trenches that allow them to deploy more soldiers and more firepower at less risk than the attacker.
In the current phase, Ukraine lauches probing attacks, during which Russia depletes its caches, exposes its hidden positions. If Ukraine is successful, they will find or create a weak spot where the Russian reserves in the deepest lines are exhausted, and punch through. If Ukraine is unsuccessful, they won't. We don't yet know which is the case. Nobody does: no-one knows the exact strength and morale of both the Russian and Ukrainian forces. Winning and losing look the same right now.
posted by TheophileEscargot at 11:08 AM on July 25, 2023 [12 favorites]
Since at least 1917 it has been very hard to break through properly supplied defenses that are disposed in depth, supported by operational reserves, and prepared with forward positions that are covered and concealed (and especially so without air superiority). This combination enforced the great trench stalemate on the Western Front in World War I.Modern warfare is characterized by both slow struggles of attrition against static defences, and periods of rapid movement if you can break through those defences.
But this pattern has persisted long after that. In the popular imagination, World War II replaced trench stalemate with a war of maneuver. But mid- and late-war offensives against properly prepared defenses commonly produced results that looked less like blitzkrieg and more like the slow, costly, grinding advance of the Hundred Days offensives of 1918. Concentrated, armor-heavy attackers at the Mareth Line in 1943, Kursk in 1943, Operations Epsom, Goodwood, or Market Garden in 1944, the Siegfried Line in 1944, or the Gothic Line in 1944-45 all failed to produce quick breakthroughs and devolved into slow, methodical slogs at best, and “death rides of the armored divisions” (as historian Alexander McKee characterized Goodwood) at worst...
Of course there have also been dramatic offensive successes since 1917. The German invasion of France in 1940 knocked the French out of World War II in a month. The German invasion of the Soviet Union in 1941 destroyed over 100 Soviet divisions and advanced to the gates of Moscow in a season. Operation Cobra in 1944 broke through German lines and retook most of metropolitan France in a month. The Israeli invasion of the Sinai in 1967 triumphed in just six days. The American counteroffensive in Operation Desert Storm in 1991 evicted the Iraqis from Kuwait in 100 hours of ground fighting. The 2020 Azerbaijani offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh drove the Armenians from the Aras River Valley in less than two months.
Frustratingly that means we can't really tell who is "winning" in this phase. It could be that Ukraine will make a breakthrough. It could be their attack will fail. Both those things look the same at the early phase.
Even the WW1 trench stalemate wasn't about each side having a single, impervious line of defence. The critical concept is defence in depth. There are multiple lines of defence going deep. Breaking through the first line is easy. The problem is that as you advance the defender has emplacements, caches, communication trenches that allow them to deploy more soldiers and more firepower at less risk than the attacker.
In the current phase, Ukraine lauches probing attacks, during which Russia depletes its caches, exposes its hidden positions. If Ukraine is successful, they will find or create a weak spot where the Russian reserves in the deepest lines are exhausted, and punch through. If Ukraine is unsuccessful, they won't. We don't yet know which is the case. Nobody does: no-one knows the exact strength and morale of both the Russian and Ukrainian forces. Winning and losing look the same right now.
posted by TheophileEscargot at 11:08 AM on July 25, 2023 [12 favorites]
This imaginary YouTube thumbnail from an alternate reality where YouTube existed in WW2 makes fun of the Ukraine is failing in its war aims / doomed nonsense.
posted by interogative mood at 11:25 AM on July 25, 2023
posted by interogative mood at 11:25 AM on July 25, 2023
Lithuanian Minister of Foreign Affairs Gabrielius Landsbergis🇱🇹 on Twitter
The Baltic States have five ports that could be used to safely export much more of Ukraine's grain. We are officially proposing that the @EU_Commission help us to increase rail capacity on the #BalticRoute 🇱🇹🇱🇻🇪🇪🌾posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 11:40 AM on July 25, 2023 [7 favorites]
It really is worth reading the link at the top
True! Steve Biddle is an excellent scholar -- and may not even be the best one in his marriage (Tami David Biddle is a wonderful historian).
I think you're misreading it slightly though, with this: "Modern warfare is characterized by both slow struggles of attrition against static defences, and periods of rapid movement if you can break through those defences."
Biddle differentiates between "shallow" defenses and deep well-prepared ones (as you note). Breakthroughs have come historically against shallow defenses, whereas against well-prepared ones it's enormously difficult. Thus, from later in the article:
The offensive that's going to work against this kind of defense is either the 1918 WWI "bite and hold" strategy of the British and French forces, or the massive attacks that the Soviets managed on the Eastern Front after Kursk. Both were grinding affairs, with massive casualty counts. I tend towards the WWI comparison because 1) the Ukrainians don't have the mass capability that the Soviets did and 2) the fact that there's no place to flank the Russians makes it look like the Western Front in WWI. This kind of war needs numbers, not bleeding edge capability. If we could get the Ukranians 3000 reasonable tanks (how many M60s are in reserve?), it'd be better than 50 Abrams.
(Oh, another way the magical thinking comes out in Western reactions: the "they haven't really started yet" analysis. "They're just probing," "The real offensive is yet to come.")
posted by Galvanic at 12:17 PM on July 25, 2023
True! Steve Biddle is an excellent scholar -- and may not even be the best one in his marriage (Tami David Biddle is a wonderful historian).
I think you're misreading it slightly though, with this: "Modern warfare is characterized by both slow struggles of attrition against static defences, and periods of rapid movement if you can break through those defences."
Biddle differentiates between "shallow" defenses and deep well-prepared ones (as you note). Breakthroughs have come historically against shallow defenses, whereas against well-prepared ones it's enormously difficult. Thus, from later in the article:
..while offensive breakthrough is still possible under the right conditions, it remains very hard to accomplish against deep, prepared defenses with adequate supplies and operational reserves behind them. This is not a novel feature of new technology — it is an enduring consequence of the post-1900 lethality of ever-evolving weapons that has been observed repeatedly over more than a century of combat experience. Exposed defenders are increasingly vulnerable to long-range weapons and sensors, but covered and concealed positions remain highly resistant to precision engagement. Shallow, forward defenses can be ruptured with well-organized combined arms attacks, but deep defenses with meaningful reserves behind them still pose much harder problems for attackers. Overextended positions without secure supply lines can be overwhelmed, but consolidated positions with viable logistical support are still much harder and more costly to overcome.He's not saying it's not possible, but that most of the rapid offensive breakthroughs have come against defenses that were not as deep as the Russians. In the initial phases of the Ukrainian attack, it was going to be interesting to see if the Russian defenses cracked and proved to be shallow. They haven't so far, and so now it seems like a much much more difficult taks.
The offensive that's going to work against this kind of defense is either the 1918 WWI "bite and hold" strategy of the British and French forces, or the massive attacks that the Soviets managed on the Eastern Front after Kursk. Both were grinding affairs, with massive casualty counts. I tend towards the WWI comparison because 1) the Ukrainians don't have the mass capability that the Soviets did and 2) the fact that there's no place to flank the Russians makes it look like the Western Front in WWI. This kind of war needs numbers, not bleeding edge capability. If we could get the Ukranians 3000 reasonable tanks (how many M60s are in reserve?), it'd be better than 50 Abrams.
(Oh, another way the magical thinking comes out in Western reactions: the "they haven't really started yet" analysis. "They're just probing," "The real offensive is yet to come.")
posted by Galvanic at 12:17 PM on July 25, 2023
Of course there have also been dramatic offensive successes since 1917
Of that list, zero are from the USSR/Russia. I believe that the 2022 invasion was Russia's best attempt at a modern, "western" offensive, and it failed dramatically. With attrition of their best troops and commanders, I doubt that they could even take advantage of a Ukrainian withdrawal. But this certainly doesn't mean Russia will lose, they're just not going to win like Americans do and they know it.
posted by meowzilla at 12:27 PM on July 25, 2023 [1 favorite]
Of that list, zero are from the USSR/Russia. I believe that the 2022 invasion was Russia's best attempt at a modern, "western" offensive, and it failed dramatically. With attrition of their best troops and commanders, I doubt that they could even take advantage of a Ukrainian withdrawal. But this certainly doesn't mean Russia will lose, they're just not going to win like Americans do and they know it.
posted by meowzilla at 12:27 PM on July 25, 2023 [1 favorite]
I think a majority of media consumers are getting the impression, at different points along the timeline, that all it would take is e.g. specific anti-missile and air defence weapons/technology..
If so I'm wondering if this is country specific? all of the media I've seen (in Europe, mostly Germany) ranges from "Leopard 2 tanks will not change the course of the war, but they should help" or even less optimistic. Even US media I've seen may have been more optimistic but I've never seen anyone make the claim that one weapon system will do actual magic and make Russia go away — but admittedly I've only watched selective bits.
Take for example F16 jets. I'd say a very large amount of what I've heard or read is: F16s get dusty and break and, if they don't get too dusty to take off, then they'll get shot down by Russian air defense so basically useless to Ukraine. I don't know, does this jet have anything positive going for it? Haven't heard it.
Here, for example, the very first Google search result I got for F16s to Ukraine:
CNN F-16s for Ukraine: Why Kyiv would still face big hurdles in using the US-made fighter jets
posted by UN at 12:40 PM on July 25, 2023 [1 favorite]
If so I'm wondering if this is country specific? all of the media I've seen (in Europe, mostly Germany) ranges from "Leopard 2 tanks will not change the course of the war, but they should help" or even less optimistic. Even US media I've seen may have been more optimistic but I've never seen anyone make the claim that one weapon system will do actual magic and make Russia go away — but admittedly I've only watched selective bits.
Take for example F16 jets. I'd say a very large amount of what I've heard or read is: F16s get dusty and break and, if they don't get too dusty to take off, then they'll get shot down by Russian air defense so basically useless to Ukraine. I don't know, does this jet have anything positive going for it? Haven't heard it.
Here, for example, the very first Google search result I got for F16s to Ukraine:
CNN F-16s for Ukraine: Why Kyiv would still face big hurdles in using the US-made fighter jets
posted by UN at 12:40 PM on July 25, 2023 [1 favorite]
As the saying goes, modern war is about logistics. The thing about the comparison to WW1 is that positional defensive warfare is still the default unless one side has the ability to overcome it. In WW2 combined arms tactics were shown to be capable of overcoming static defenses but it was also shown that a successful armored penetration could easily end catastrophically if it couldn't be resupplied and reinforced. When it comes to things like getting a Leopard or even an F-16, the potential goes beyond the weapons themselves because it implies the supply chain to use them. This is why announcements like Poland repairing tanks are so significant, because they expand that capacity. Right now Ukraine's offensive is in the bite and hold mode, trying to maintain the initiative without over extending themselves. They are following western tactics and so the big breakthrough won't come until it can be fully exploited.
posted by feloniousmonk at 12:46 PM on July 25, 2023
posted by feloniousmonk at 12:46 PM on July 25, 2023
Of course F16s have positive stuff going for them. It's been the workhorse of much of the world's air forces for 50 years and for a while was the most numerous fighter out there (maybe it still is, I just don't know). It's good in both air to air and air to ground roles, parts are numerous, it's relatively low cost (compared to more modern US fighters) is reliable, and has something like an 8-1 victory/loss ratio in air combat vs Russia made stuff.
Of course that ratio wouldn't hold in Ukraine but it gives an idea of the thing's capabilities.
The issue isn't that the plane isn't good, it's that Ukraine is massively outnumbered. The best plane and tanks in the world won't prevail if the enemy has 10 for every 1 of yours.
posted by Justinian at 12:47 PM on July 25, 2023 [3 favorites]
Of course that ratio wouldn't hold in Ukraine but it gives an idea of the thing's capabilities.
The issue isn't that the plane isn't good, it's that Ukraine is massively outnumbered. The best plane and tanks in the world won't prevail if the enemy has 10 for every 1 of yours.
posted by Justinian at 12:47 PM on July 25, 2023 [3 favorites]
Gabrielius Landsbergis: We are officially proposing that the @EU_Commission help us to increase rail capacity on the #BalticRoute
Um. The Baltics have the Russian and Ukrainian rail gauge (1520mm), Poland does not (1435mm), so my immediate thought would be that he means to run a wide gauge rail line west of the Poland/Belarus border from somewhere near Chelm to Kaunas. Because I doubt that Belarus would be amenable to opening a transport corridor.
I'm curious what the actual plan would entail.
posted by Stoneshop at 12:49 PM on July 25, 2023 [1 favorite]
Um. The Baltics have the Russian and Ukrainian rail gauge (1520mm), Poland does not (1435mm), so my immediate thought would be that he means to run a wide gauge rail line west of the Poland/Belarus border from somewhere near Chelm to Kaunas. Because I doubt that Belarus would be amenable to opening a transport corridor.
I'm curious what the actual plan would entail.
posted by Stoneshop at 12:49 PM on July 25, 2023 [1 favorite]
Apparently the Kerch Strait Bridge took more damage than the Russians initially assessed; the deadline for the repairs to be completed has now moved back to the end of the year. The repair for the previous attack was finished 1 July, with the bridge fully operational again in November, but the 17 July attack fired a spanner in the works. There appears to be no date yet for it being fully open again after the repairs.
posted by Stoneshop at 1:00 PM on July 25, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by Stoneshop at 1:00 PM on July 25, 2023 [3 favorites]
I don't know, does this jet have anything positive going for it? Haven't heard it.
A Ukrainian pilot promoting the use of F16 was saying that the longer range radar would give them some degree of parity with Russian pilots. He also talked about the UI being customizable/adaptable to immediate purpose, where the old Soviet machines they're using still require the pilot to be aware of all displays, all the time.
posted by brachiopod at 1:19 PM on July 25, 2023 [1 favorite]
A Ukrainian pilot promoting the use of F16 was saying that the longer range radar would give them some degree of parity with Russian pilots. He also talked about the UI being customizable/adaptable to immediate purpose, where the old Soviet machines they're using still require the pilot to be aware of all displays, all the time.
posted by brachiopod at 1:19 PM on July 25, 2023 [1 favorite]
Of that list, zero [offensives] are from the USSR/Russia
Which is just silly. The greatest offensive army of WWII was the Red Army of 1943-45. They destroyed the main weight of the German Army in a series of offensives (Operation Bagration in 1944 a particular standout) at a scale and skill that the United States has never managed.
posted by Galvanic at 1:19 PM on July 25, 2023 [3 favorites]
Which is just silly. The greatest offensive army of WWII was the Red Army of 1943-45. They destroyed the main weight of the German Army in a series of offensives (Operation Bagration in 1944 a particular standout) at a scale and skill that the United States has never managed.
posted by Galvanic at 1:19 PM on July 25, 2023 [3 favorites]
Um. The Baltics have the Russian and Ukrainian rail gauge (1520mm), Poland does not (1435mm), so my immediate thought would be that he means to run a wide gauge rail line west of the Poland/Belarus border from somewhere near Chelm to Kaunas. Because I doubt that Belarus would be amenable to opening a transport corridor.
I'm curious what the actual plan would entail.
I only know enough to know that trains with variable gauge axles and systems for adjusting them exist, is fitting the trains in question with that if they don't already have it and setting up gauge changing infrastructure a bigger hurdle than laying new track?
posted by jason_steakums at 2:28 PM on July 25, 2023
I'm curious what the actual plan would entail.
I only know enough to know that trains with variable gauge axles and systems for adjusting them exist, is fitting the trains in question with that if they don't already have it and setting up gauge changing infrastructure a bigger hurdle than laying new track?
posted by jason_steakums at 2:28 PM on July 25, 2023
Laying new track is stupidly expensive. I don't know what the time cost is for changing gauge for rail cars because it's not like you can do that in motion, so I'm guessing you move one car forward at a time after the wheels have been adjusted and you adjust the car behind. I'd pictured picking up rail cars and putting new carriages under them, but obviously wheels that can expand or contract the few centimeters required would be more helpful.
If laying new track were inexpensive, the US could have had a parallel passenger rail system that didn't have to rely on privately owned freight rail tracks by now. We really only did the rail system we have with slave or near-slave labor.
posted by hippybear at 2:38 PM on July 25, 2023 [1 favorite]
If laying new track were inexpensive, the US could have had a parallel passenger rail system that didn't have to rely on privately owned freight rail tracks by now. We really only did the rail system we have with slave or near-slave labor.
posted by hippybear at 2:38 PM on July 25, 2023 [1 favorite]
It appears it's a pretty smooth process that can be done in motion, but as to the cost vs laying track for all that retrofitting, who knows. I suppose it's done for a reason though, so I'd assume it's cost effective vs new track in at least some scenarios.
posted by jason_steakums at 2:43 PM on July 25, 2023
posted by jason_steakums at 2:43 PM on July 25, 2023
USAF alone had received over 2,200 F-16s by 2005. There are whole lot of them in the world. More than the combined number of MiG-29s and SU-27 and its derivatives than Russia has in service by even the most generous estimates. But, that's theoretical. The numbers pledged so far are modest; and it's not clear how many Ukraine could crew even in the unlikely scenario that the US said "OK, how many do you want regenerated from storage?" It's also unclear how much of its fleet the VKS is willing to sacrifice; its production numbers are very low and will only go lower. The wildcard would be China agreeing to sell Russia its fighters. Especially, on credit or some kind of barter, or for leases to exploit oil fields Russia currently can't, etc.
The downsides vs. something like the Gripen are real, but even if Ukraine got some Gripens (which I would like) it would be few and they'd need something else too. Arguably, Hornet would have been better—but two engines are twice as much engine maintenance, there are fewer of them, and they would probably require less deniable and more direct US Navy support. All of the other alternatives didn't offer much over the F-16, except political viability, which has now been overcome. Its drawbacks may require it to operate from the west of Ukraine; where its basing can be protected. But with tanks and without aerial refueling its combat radius is between 200nm/740nm (370km to 1370km) depending on load, with reasonable endurance. It's presently about 650km from Kyiv to the center of the southern front. Operating from near Dnipro, if defensible, would provide even more reach. JDAM-ERs can be launched from around 45 miles (72km) from the target. JSOWs up to 60 miles or so, depending on the model.
There are dual gauge rail links to Ukraine in Hungary, but Orban isn't likely to help take the pressure off, and it's a roundabout way to go.
posted by snuffleupagus at 3:26 PM on July 25, 2023
The downsides vs. something like the Gripen are real, but even if Ukraine got some Gripens (which I would like) it would be few and they'd need something else too. Arguably, Hornet would have been better—but two engines are twice as much engine maintenance, there are fewer of them, and they would probably require less deniable and more direct US Navy support. All of the other alternatives didn't offer much over the F-16, except political viability, which has now been overcome. Its drawbacks may require it to operate from the west of Ukraine; where its basing can be protected. But with tanks and without aerial refueling its combat radius is between 200nm/740nm (370km to 1370km) depending on load, with reasonable endurance. It's presently about 650km from Kyiv to the center of the southern front. Operating from near Dnipro, if defensible, would provide even more reach. JDAM-ERs can be launched from around 45 miles (72km) from the target. JSOWs up to 60 miles or so, depending on the model.
There are dual gauge rail links to Ukraine in Hungary, but Orban isn't likely to help take the pressure off, and it's a roundabout way to go.
posted by snuffleupagus at 3:26 PM on July 25, 2023
jason_steakums: I only know enough to know that trains with variable gauge axles and systems for adjusting them exist
That's done only for passenger trains, where you rather not need to have all passengers and their luggage get off, move across the platform and board another train. Especially where those trains continue deep into the country and you have families lugging incredible volumes of stuff that you simply can't get at home.
For goods trains and in some cases passenger trains too they tend to use systems that lift the car after which another pair of bogies gets put underneath, and for bulk goods like grain the easiest way tends to be transloading where you can basically position the self-discharging bulk wagons used more or less over a row of receiving wagons and open the hoppers.
So as this is primarily about grain I expect the idea is to radically increase the transloading facilities at the UA/PL and PL/LT borders, and of course upgrading the rail network capacity along the route. Which may well need laying extra track; you can only gain so much with improved signalling especially when single track sections have to be shared between passenger and goods services. In which case doubling existing track but with wide gauge for the new track could start to be worth looking into. Which would save on the cost of the transloading facilities, and also save time.
posted by Stoneshop at 3:30 PM on July 25, 2023 [3 favorites]
That's done only for passenger trains, where you rather not need to have all passengers and their luggage get off, move across the platform and board another train. Especially where those trains continue deep into the country and you have families lugging incredible volumes of stuff that you simply can't get at home.
For goods trains and in some cases passenger trains too they tend to use systems that lift the car after which another pair of bogies gets put underneath, and for bulk goods like grain the easiest way tends to be transloading where you can basically position the self-discharging bulk wagons used more or less over a row of receiving wagons and open the hoppers.
So as this is primarily about grain I expect the idea is to radically increase the transloading facilities at the UA/PL and PL/LT borders, and of course upgrading the rail network capacity along the route. Which may well need laying extra track; you can only gain so much with improved signalling especially when single track sections have to be shared between passenger and goods services. In which case doubling existing track but with wide gauge for the new track could start to be worth looking into. Which would save on the cost of the transloading facilities, and also save time.
posted by Stoneshop at 3:30 PM on July 25, 2023 [3 favorites]
I believe that the idea of Ukraine still having counteroffensive potential in reserve is strongly supported by analysts like ISW, and is stated as such by the Ukraine command. The counteroffensive has definitely started, and most sources are pretty open about the fact that it didn't go great at first.
This doesn't mean it's been a failure or that it is over. The counteroffensive continues, and is making progress, and is forcing Russia to react. It's entirely reasonable to think that Ukraine can inflict serious losses on Russia, forcing breakthroughs and or retreats. Ukraine has done exactly that three times at least. There's no magical thinking involved anywhere. Ukraine has done X before, and Y (land mines, defense preparation time) is why they are having trouble immediately replicating the success.
posted by Jacen at 3:31 PM on July 25, 2023 [5 favorites]
This doesn't mean it's been a failure or that it is over. The counteroffensive continues, and is making progress, and is forcing Russia to react. It's entirely reasonable to think that Ukraine can inflict serious losses on Russia, forcing breakthroughs and or retreats. Ukraine has done exactly that three times at least. There's no magical thinking involved anywhere. Ukraine has done X before, and Y (land mines, defense preparation time) is why they are having trouble immediately replicating the success.
posted by Jacen at 3:31 PM on July 25, 2023 [5 favorites]
Ukraine’s 3rd Assault Division put out this video showing an operation in May. Warning shows actual war but has been sanitized of the stuff you see in raw feeds.
posted by interogative mood at 8:09 PM on July 25, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by interogative mood at 8:09 PM on July 25, 2023 [1 favorite]
Russian Defense minister Shoigu is in North Korea for the 70th anniversary of NKorea's victory in the 1950-53 war. That's from the Russian ministry, some analysis here from Meduza:
Russia has been moving closer and closer to North Korea since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. U.S. media, citing intelligence sources, has repeatedly written that Moscow has been buying ammunition from Pyongyang. Officially, North Korea has denied it.posted by CCBC at 11:50 PM on July 25, 2023
snuffleupagus: There are dual gauge rail links to Ukraine in Hungary, but Orban isn't likely to help take the pressure off, and it's a roundabout way to go.
Just a few km to an industrial area. And going north from there towards the Baltics you'd first have to cross Slovakia which has its own wide-gauge rail connection to a steel plant in Košice.
In both world wars German railway engineering teams simply took one rail and moved it closer to the other so that they could use their own rolling stock throughout. This was a comparatively speedy operation, and widening (by 89mm) is just as fast but in the current case Poland would have to give up compatibility for the routes involved.
posted by Stoneshop at 12:17 AM on July 26, 2023 [4 favorites]
Just a few km to an industrial area. And going north from there towards the Baltics you'd first have to cross Slovakia which has its own wide-gauge rail connection to a steel plant in Košice.
In both world wars German railway engineering teams simply took one rail and moved it closer to the other so that they could use their own rolling stock throughout. This was a comparatively speedy operation, and widening (by 89mm) is just as fast but in the current case Poland would have to give up compatibility for the routes involved.
posted by Stoneshop at 12:17 AM on July 26, 2023 [4 favorites]
Russia extends conscription for compulsory military service up to age 30
Doesn't look like winning to me.
IMO Russia's big problem is that they have no idea what is going on in the rest of the world, least of all Europe. Putin is not some strategic mastermind, he is a thug who got lucky in the chaos of Jeltsin's failed government. As are most, if not all of the other oligarchs. Their perception of Europe is colored by their transactions with European nations and people: selling fossile fuels, buying property (including soccer teams and yachts), laundering money and vacationing with the ultra-rich. Not situations where you get an idea of the level of solidarity with Ukraine.
There are millions of less prosperous Russians all over Europe, living normal lives and interacting with co-workers, spouses and neighbors, but they don't have a lot of influence on the Kremlin perception of the world, do they? Heck, Zelensky himself is a Russian-Ukrainian.
But, you might ask, wasn't Putin a KGB agent in Dresden. Yes he was, but while that is already not very interesting or relevant, the reality seems to be that it was exceptionally uninteresting.
posted by mumimor at 1:40 AM on July 26, 2023 [7 favorites]
Doesn't look like winning to me.
IMO Russia's big problem is that they have no idea what is going on in the rest of the world, least of all Europe. Putin is not some strategic mastermind, he is a thug who got lucky in the chaos of Jeltsin's failed government. As are most, if not all of the other oligarchs. Their perception of Europe is colored by their transactions with European nations and people: selling fossile fuels, buying property (including soccer teams and yachts), laundering money and vacationing with the ultra-rich. Not situations where you get an idea of the level of solidarity with Ukraine.
There are millions of less prosperous Russians all over Europe, living normal lives and interacting with co-workers, spouses and neighbors, but they don't have a lot of influence on the Kremlin perception of the world, do they? Heck, Zelensky himself is a Russian-Ukrainian.
But, you might ask, wasn't Putin a KGB agent in Dresden. Yes he was, but while that is already not very interesting or relevant, the reality seems to be that it was exceptionally uninteresting.
posted by mumimor at 1:40 AM on July 26, 2023 [7 favorites]
If laying new track were inexpensive, the US could have had a parallel passenger rail system that didn't have to rely on privately owned freight rail tracks by now. We really only did the rail system we have with slave or near-slave labor.
Nah, laying rail is done by guys making 2-3X minimum wage. Multiple reports have shown the majority of the cost of rail in the US is design of rail systems in the US, financing, and the purchasing of land as the expensive parts.
posted by The_Vegetables at 10:58 AM on July 26, 2023 [3 favorites]
Nah, laying rail is done by guys making 2-3X minimum wage. Multiple reports have shown the majority of the cost of rail in the US is design of rail systems in the US, financing, and the purchasing of land as the expensive parts.
posted by The_Vegetables at 10:58 AM on July 26, 2023 [3 favorites]
I wouldn't be surprised if 99% of the cost of laying new track is in figuring out how to purchase the land and playing the eminent domain game.
posted by I-Write-Essays at 11:15 AM on July 26, 2023 [5 favorites]
posted by I-Write-Essays at 11:15 AM on July 26, 2023 [5 favorites]
one or two million$ a mile up to 30 for urban areas, that's new.
The cost is about 1 million dollars to move 3 armored brigades one mile.
posted by clavdivs at 11:21 AM on July 26, 2023
The cost is about 1 million dollars to move 3 armored brigades one mile.
posted by clavdivs at 11:21 AM on July 26, 2023
Nah, laying rail is done by guys making 2-3X minimum wage.
Was more thinking historical rail building and not modern day really.
posted by hippybear at 11:34 AM on July 26, 2023 [1 favorite]
Was more thinking historical rail building and not modern day really.
posted by hippybear at 11:34 AM on July 26, 2023 [1 favorite]
The NyTimes is reporting that a new major thrust of the Ukrainian Offensive has just started. (Gift link)
posted by interogative mood at 5:29 PM on July 26, 2023 [5 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 5:29 PM on July 26, 2023 [5 favorites]
Phillips O'Brien notes that Ukraine still have major uncommitted reserves, and Zelensky's evening address yesterday was pretty upbeat, promising more good news.
posted by Harald74 at 11:22 PM on July 26, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 11:22 PM on July 26, 2023 [2 favorites]
A short article from The Times on a small unit of English-speaking veterans operating in the Dnipro delta.
posted by Harald74 at 12:34 AM on July 27, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by Harald74 at 12:34 AM on July 27, 2023 [1 favorite]
A very important paper with data on the casualties in the war:
Epstein, Aaron MD, MA; Lim, Robert MD, FACS, FASMBS; Johannigman, Jay MD, USAR, MC; Fox, Charles J MD, FACS; Inaba, Kenji MD, FACS; Vercruysse, Gary A MD, FACS; Thomas, Richard W MD, DDS, MSS; Martin, Matthew J MD, FACS; Konstantyn, Gumeniuk MD, PhD; Schwaitzberg, Steven D MD, FACS, MAMSE:
Putting Medical Boots on the Ground: Lessons from the War in Ukraine and Applications for Future Conflict with Near-Peer Adversaries.
Journal of the American College of Surgeons 237(2):p 364-373, August 2023. | DOI: 10.1097/XCS.0000000000000707
TLDR: current NATO models on survivability on the battlefield are using data from the Global War on Terror (1) where the main cause of casualties were IEDs (2) and medevac under fire was extremely rare. Neither of this is true in the current conflict, so adjustments are needed to these models when planning a near-peer war. Also, this is terrifying:
Epstein, Aaron MD, MA; Lim, Robert MD, FACS, FASMBS; Johannigman, Jay MD, USAR, MC; Fox, Charles J MD, FACS; Inaba, Kenji MD, FACS; Vercruysse, Gary A MD, FACS; Thomas, Richard W MD, DDS, MSS; Martin, Matthew J MD, FACS; Konstantyn, Gumeniuk MD, PhD; Schwaitzberg, Steven D MD, FACS, MAMSE:
Putting Medical Boots on the Ground: Lessons from the War in Ukraine and Applications for Future Conflict with Near-Peer Adversaries.
Journal of the American College of Surgeons 237(2):p 364-373, August 2023. | DOI: 10.1097/XCS.0000000000000707
TLDR: current NATO models on survivability on the battlefield are using data from the Global War on Terror (1) where the main cause of casualties were IEDs (2) and medevac under fire was extremely rare. Neither of this is true in the current conflict, so adjustments are needed to these models when planning a near-peer war. Also, this is terrifying:
Statistics shared by Ukrainian physicians demonstrate that more than 70% of all Ukrainian combat casualties are due to artillery and rocket barrages from Russian forces, which has resulted in significant polytrauma to multiple organ systems. By comparison, in most recent non-NPA conflicts, soldiers who sustained injuries to the thoracic and abdominal cavities could survive if concomitant injuries to extremities and the rest of the body were limited.23 In Ukraine, Russia’s weapons have led to more devastating injuries to a larger number of soldiers in any given attackand
Modern antitank guided missiles that have been used widely by Russia have a nearly +75% fatality rate when employed against personnel or lightly armored vehicles, because they are intended for use against tanks or bunkers. US military personnel encountered these weapons infrequently during the GWOT.16 They appear to be a much more frequent occurrence in this NPA conflict.17 The injuries sustained have been devastating, and survival rates are significantly lower than those from nondirectional blast injuries such as artillery and mortars.13 Additionally, Russian forces in this conflict have been firing nearly 60,000 artillery rounds a day. This represents a volume of fire that US forces have not seen since World War II.posted by kmt at 1:27 AM on July 27, 2023 [4 favorites]
In Ukraine, Russian forces often used area denial munitions, such as antitank and antipersonnel mines. These munitions are built using standardized, consistent construction completed on a much larger scale. As such, they are more available, operationally reliable, effective, and deployable. IEDs used in the GWOT were, by definition, improvised and thus had questionable reliability.
Institute for the Study of War on July 26th.
Ukrainian forces launched a significant mechanized counteroffensive operation in western Zaporizhia Oblast on July 26 and appear to have broken through certain pre-prepared Russian defensive positions south of Orikhiv. Russian sources, including the...posted by Harald74 at 6:45 AM on July 27, 2023 [6 favorites]
Key Takeaways:
- Ukrainian forces launched a significant mechanized counteroffensive operation in western Zaporizhia Oblast on July 26 and appear to have broken through certain pre-prepared Russian defensive positions south of Orikhiv.
- Russian sources provided a wide range of diverging claims as to the scale of both the attack and resulting Ukrainian losses, indicating that the actual results and Ukrainian losses remain unclear.
- The battlefield geometry around Robotyne, as well as the force composition of the Russian elements defending there, offer important color to speculation surrounding the Ukrainian attack and gains.
- Western and Ukrainian officials suggested that the attacks towards Robotyne mark an inflection in Ukraine’s counteroffensive effort. Today’s actions around Robotyne are likely the start of any “main thrust” Ukrainian forces might be launching, if US officials are correct, rather than the sum of such a thrust.
- Russian forces conducted a large-scale missile strike largely aimed at rear areas in Ukraine on the night of July 26.
- The Russian Black Sea Fleet is increasing military posturing in the Black Sea, likely in an attempt to set conditions to forcibly stop and search civilian vessels and exert increased control in the
Anyone wondering about the whereabouts of Prigozhin after the insurrection, discounting some vague early-morning speech where someone who might be him addresses his fighters, probably somewhere in Belarus: he's in St. Petersburg at the Africa-Russia summit, kowtowing with his 'clients'.
Just like nothing happened.
posted by Stoneshop at 8:16 AM on July 27, 2023 [4 favorites]
Just like nothing happened.
posted by Stoneshop at 8:16 AM on July 27, 2023 [4 favorites]
Statistics shared by Ukrainian physicians demonstrate that more than 70% of all Ukrainian combat casualties are due to artillery and rocket barrages from Russian forces
There's a reason why artillery is known as "the king of the battlefield."
To go back to my earlier note -- this is extremely comparable to WWI battles, with frontal assaults against static and deep defenses backed by large amounts of artillery pre-ranged on specific points.
It's a modernized version, of course, given that there are tanks, drones, and other technologies developed in their modern form since WWI, but it's amazing how similar it is.
posted by Galvanic at 8:28 AM on July 27, 2023
There's a reason why artillery is known as "the king of the battlefield."
To go back to my earlier note -- this is extremely comparable to WWI battles, with frontal assaults against static and deep defenses backed by large amounts of artillery pre-ranged on specific points.
It's a modernized version, of course, given that there are tanks, drones, and other technologies developed in their modern form since WWI, but it's amazing how similar it is.
posted by Galvanic at 8:28 AM on July 27, 2023
Aaron Stein interviews Michael Kofman for War on the Rocks about the state of the Ukrainian offensive. One interesting aspect, which I hadn’t quite grasped, is that one reason for the dismal failure of the western-trained brigades is that they were usually fairly green troops.
But Kofman still advocates for letting the Ukrainian military fight in its own way, and allied governments should focus on giving them the resources to fight that way, as that has been most efficacious on the battlefield. Even though more battle-hardened troops might’ve made better use of the western equipment, the strategy of shifting the fighting style of the whole army has proven to be ineffective.
posted by Kattullus at 9:46 AM on July 27, 2023 [3 favorites]
But Kofman still advocates for letting the Ukrainian military fight in its own way, and allied governments should focus on giving them the resources to fight that way, as that has been most efficacious on the battlefield. Even though more battle-hardened troops might’ve made better use of the western equipment, the strategy of shifting the fighting style of the whole army has proven to be ineffective.
posted by Kattullus at 9:46 AM on July 27, 2023 [3 favorites]
I saw an interview with an experienced Ukrainian tank commander who went to train on Leopards in Germany... He asked the trainers how they deal with mine fields. They responded, he said, that they drive around them.
Of course, he smiled, there is no such option in Ukraine, the mine fields are gigantic. The point I assume was that not all the tactics that work in NATO's experience are applicable in this war, even if Ukrainian soldiers had more NATO style training.
posted by UN at 10:51 AM on July 27, 2023 [5 favorites]
Of course, he smiled, there is no such option in Ukraine, the mine fields are gigantic. The point I assume was that not all the tactics that work in NATO's experience are applicable in this war, even if Ukrainian soldiers had more NATO style training.
posted by UN at 10:51 AM on July 27, 2023 [5 favorites]
o go back to my earlier note -- this is extremely comparable to WWI battles, with frontal assaults against static and deep defenses backed by large amounts of artillery pre-ranged ... There's a reason why artillery is known as "the king of the battlefield."
World War II too. Not that many were actually infantry troops (only 10-15%), and infantry didn't kill that many people, collectively. Artillery fire does the most damage.
posted by The_Vegetables at 12:30 PM on July 27, 2023 [1 favorite]
World War II too. Not that many were actually infantry troops (only 10-15%), and infantry didn't kill that many people, collectively. Artillery fire does the most damage.
posted by The_Vegetables at 12:30 PM on July 27, 2023 [1 favorite]
I didn't realize the Baltics still use Russian gauge rail. I'd think that they would be interested in shifting to standard gauge -- for reasons of both commerce (trading with the rest of Europe) and defense (enabling rapid deployment of NATO assets, and thwarting Russian incursions).
Maybe the public funding just hasn't been there. But the potential trade benefits alone would seem to make it a profitable investment for some enterprising capitalist(s) to take on.
posted by Artifice_Eternity at 12:44 PM on July 27, 2023
Maybe the public funding just hasn't been there. But the potential trade benefits alone would seem to make it a profitable investment for some enterprising capitalist(s) to take on.
posted by Artifice_Eternity at 12:44 PM on July 27, 2023
There is a standard gauge rail link from Poland into Lithuania with transmodal facilities in Kaunas. But re-gauging the entire Baltics rail network would cause years of rail chaos there which they would have to be able to stomach. Even a big bang change would take several months at least.
Those gauge change facilities where trains can just roll through appear to have been part of a limited test which ended in 2009 for goods trains into Lithuania, and 2016 for regional passenger trains into Ukraine; the current state of these facilities show them not having been used for several years. As such the system worked although it did need a few modifications. Currently the Polish Railways and the University of Poznan are working on an improved version.
Some history and related info.
posted by Stoneshop at 1:31 PM on July 27, 2023 [2 favorites]
Those gauge change facilities where trains can just roll through appear to have been part of a limited test which ended in 2009 for goods trains into Lithuania, and 2016 for regional passenger trains into Ukraine; the current state of these facilities show them not having been used for several years. As such the system worked although it did need a few modifications. Currently the Polish Railways and the University of Poznan are working on an improved version.
Some history and related info.
posted by Stoneshop at 1:31 PM on July 27, 2023 [2 favorites]
I'm still finding it very hard to find reliable information about what is actually happening in this war. We're inundated with reports and news, but no one really seems to know what's going on. What's the current casualty numbers on either side? What is the most likely outcome? Everything is shrouded in mystery. I'm a news reader, but not a war junkie so maybe this is just an uninformed opinion.
posted by chaz at 2:53 PM on July 27, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by chaz at 2:53 PM on July 27, 2023 [1 favorite]
You're not wrong. What you're describing is "the fog of war" and is just a part of warfare. Some of it is just that war is chaotic and fluid. Some of it is because one of the fronts a war is waged on is information.
If you're experiencing massive losses somewhere, you don't want your enemy to know that they're winning if you can avoid it. Likewise you don't want your own troops to start to think the war is unwinnable and they should try to sneak away or surrender.
And you definitely don't want your enemy to know what you're doing enough to make good guesses at you're going to do next.
You want the folks that need to know to know so they can make the decisions they need to make to accomplish their mission. You want everyone else to be confused about what's actually going on.
posted by VTX at 3:04 PM on July 27, 2023 [4 favorites]
If you're experiencing massive losses somewhere, you don't want your enemy to know that they're winning if you can avoid it. Likewise you don't want your own troops to start to think the war is unwinnable and they should try to sneak away or surrender.
And you definitely don't want your enemy to know what you're doing enough to make good guesses at you're going to do next.
You want the folks that need to know to know so they can make the decisions they need to make to accomplish their mission. You want everyone else to be confused about what's actually going on.
posted by VTX at 3:04 PM on July 27, 2023 [4 favorites]
A gigantic portion of it, I'm certain, is how Twitter has changed over the past while. I think Telegram might be trying to take its place, but that's a less centralized method of getting information into the hands of the people who might piece it together and report on it.
posted by hippybear at 3:11 PM on July 27, 2023
posted by hippybear at 3:11 PM on July 27, 2023
In the south, according to the Kyiv Independent, Zelenskyy is saying Staromaiorske has been liberated. Still a ways from the main defensive works. And there have been telegram posts about Tokmak being hit with HIMARS. The control maps suggest hard fighting around Robotyne...
There's less info on what's going on with Russia's push towards the Oskil in the north, or around Bakhmut, though this NYT article from yesterday covers what that recent fighting up north been like more generally.
posted by snuffleupagus at 3:17 PM on July 27, 2023 [1 favorite]
There's less info on what's going on with Russia's push towards the Oskil in the north, or around Bakhmut, though this NYT article from yesterday covers what that recent fighting up north been like more generally.
posted by snuffleupagus at 3:17 PM on July 27, 2023 [1 favorite]
Just like nothing happened.Not quite like nothing happened. It appears that Russia is deliberately destabilizing Africa.
Russian flags waved as putsch topples Niger leader
"This is Wagner modus operandi all over," said Joana de Deus Pereira, a Russia specialist at British defence think-tank the Royal United Services Institute.And Putin promises African leaders free grain despite 'hypocritical' Western sanctions.
posted by krisjohn at 3:54 PM on July 27, 2023 [3 favorites]
Phillips O'Brien has an interesting article in Foreign Affairs about why the war, predicted to be fast and one-sided, turned out very different.
(As an aside, like the three of them have been doing for the full span of the war, he takes pleasure in quoting Rob Lee and Michael Kofman being wrong; they frequently do the same to him.)
posted by Dip Flash at 8:16 PM on July 27, 2023
(As an aside, like the three of them have been doing for the full span of the war, he takes pleasure in quoting Rob Lee and Michael Kofman being wrong; they frequently do the same to him.)
posted by Dip Flash at 8:16 PM on July 27, 2023
It seems like the Switchblade 600 loitering munitions are coming into their own finally, with the Russians complaining that they do much damage to their equipment and installations. Fun fact; Wahid Nawabi, the CEO of AeroEnvironments, is orginally an Afghan refugee to the US, fleeing Soviet occupation of his homeland.
posted by Harald74 at 11:54 PM on July 27, 2023 [7 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 11:54 PM on July 27, 2023 [7 favorites]
I wrote my Republican senators this morning:
Please ensure the defense funding bill includes the $300 million for Ukraine that the House bill removed. We have a duty to support Ukraine against Russian aggression. Russia must be defeated or they will continue to just seize land where ethnic Russians live, across Eastern Europe. Please fight for this funding.
Text SIGN PFFKGT to 50409 to send to your senators.
posted by joannemerriam at 7:22 AM on July 28, 2023 [7 favorites]
Please ensure the defense funding bill includes the $300 million for Ukraine that the House bill removed. We have a duty to support Ukraine against Russian aggression. Russia must be defeated or they will continue to just seize land where ethnic Russians live, across Eastern Europe. Please fight for this funding.
Text SIGN PFFKGT to 50409 to send to your senators.
posted by joannemerriam at 7:22 AM on July 28, 2023 [7 favorites]
The general question of who is winning is Ukraine. They are extremely unlikely to lose self governance and become a client state of Russia. They have had major victories at Kyiv, Kherson, and Kharkiv. That said, the war is still being inflicted and fought on their country, to great loss of lives and resources. Cities are being leveled and Russia is stealing everything it can. Grain, oil, washing machines, children.
Oryx and Ukraine reports of Russian casualties (wounded and killed) seems to be in the right ballpark. And the general consensus is that Ukraine is losing less people than Russia. Of course, Russian leadership cares less about its people than most other countries. But there are consistent signs Russia is having trouble putting bodies on the front lines. They are always scrounging up more troops, and there are big hints that they lack reserves. Not being able to rotate and rest troops, not being able to add recruits to damaged units, and not being able to rush fresh soldiers to enemy breakthroughs are all huge problems.
That said... Russia largely just has to keep holding on to 'win'. Nobody really wins a war. It's a stupid sick waste and a horror. They failed at their initial goal , but still have a lot of Ukraine territory the elites consider important. Staying defensive plays to Russian strengths. The West can't supply Ukraine forever. It's almost certainly not a good idea for Ukraine to surrender places like Crimea, especially since Russia has a tendency to take parts of other countries and keep them as long as possible. There is a coalition against Russia currently, even if the support of Ukraine could have been faster and more effective. But politics can and do change.
So my money is on Ukraine. Russia has proven unable to make significant advances, while Ukraine has the bulk of the victories. The momentum and control of the battlefield, the logistics and morale all point to Ukraine. I just hope they can win the war instead of winning most of the battles but still losing the overall war.
posted by Jacen at 7:49 AM on July 28, 2023 [5 favorites]
Oryx and Ukraine reports of Russian casualties (wounded and killed) seems to be in the right ballpark. And the general consensus is that Ukraine is losing less people than Russia. Of course, Russian leadership cares less about its people than most other countries. But there are consistent signs Russia is having trouble putting bodies on the front lines. They are always scrounging up more troops, and there are big hints that they lack reserves. Not being able to rotate and rest troops, not being able to add recruits to damaged units, and not being able to rush fresh soldiers to enemy breakthroughs are all huge problems.
That said... Russia largely just has to keep holding on to 'win'. Nobody really wins a war. It's a stupid sick waste and a horror. They failed at their initial goal , but still have a lot of Ukraine territory the elites consider important. Staying defensive plays to Russian strengths. The West can't supply Ukraine forever. It's almost certainly not a good idea for Ukraine to surrender places like Crimea, especially since Russia has a tendency to take parts of other countries and keep them as long as possible. There is a coalition against Russia currently, even if the support of Ukraine could have been faster and more effective. But politics can and do change.
So my money is on Ukraine. Russia has proven unable to make significant advances, while Ukraine has the bulk of the victories. The momentum and control of the battlefield, the logistics and morale all point to Ukraine. I just hope they can win the war instead of winning most of the battles but still losing the overall war.
posted by Jacen at 7:49 AM on July 28, 2023 [5 favorites]
To distance themselves further from the Russian world, Ukraine has cancelled moved Christmas.
Jokes aside, it's quite remarkable.
posted by Harald74 at 11:10 AM on July 28, 2023 [4 favorites]
Jokes aside, it's quite remarkable.
posted by Harald74 at 11:10 AM on July 28, 2023 [4 favorites]
That is pretty strong. Aligning a major holiday away from the Orthodox Calendar is a seismic shift.
posted by hippybear at 2:14 PM on July 28, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by hippybear at 2:14 PM on July 28, 2023 [4 favorites]
The change in the date of the public holiday in Ukrainian law follows steps taken by Ukraine's churches first. The Ukrainian Greek Catholic Church announced it was shifting to the Gregorian date for Christmas back in February (it was one of the few Catholic churches to still go by the old calendar). The bishops of the Orthodox Church of Ukraine voted to make the change back in May. Interestingly, I think both churches will still celebrate Easter according to the old Julian calendar.
It's maybe worth noting that some Orthodox Christians in Greece, Cyprus, and Romania already celebrate Christmas according to the Gregorian calendar. Anecdotally I know of a lot of Ukrainian Orthodox Christians in Canada and the US that, long before this invasion started, were already celebrating on December 24/25th, just in the Ukrainian traditional manner. On the other hand you have Coptic Orthodox Christians, who are still on the Julian calendar. In other words, there's a lot of variety in the Orthodox world.
So Ukraine's moves (by both church and state) are not meant to distance them from Orthodoxy and its traditions, but just away from the Russian world (as Harald74 said).
I for one support the move, although I will certainly miss Christmas in January, if only because it seemed a less-stressful celebration, separated in time from the very loud and commercial Christmas and New Years of the West. I liked having both options – different vibes. As in the the modified LOTR meme, "We've had one yes, but what about Second Christmas?"
posted by Kabanos at 2:53 PM on July 28, 2023 [21 favorites]
It's maybe worth noting that some Orthodox Christians in Greece, Cyprus, and Romania already celebrate Christmas according to the Gregorian calendar. Anecdotally I know of a lot of Ukrainian Orthodox Christians in Canada and the US that, long before this invasion started, were already celebrating on December 24/25th, just in the Ukrainian traditional manner. On the other hand you have Coptic Orthodox Christians, who are still on the Julian calendar. In other words, there's a lot of variety in the Orthodox world.
So Ukraine's moves (by both church and state) are not meant to distance them from Orthodoxy and its traditions, but just away from the Russian world (as Harald74 said).
I for one support the move, although I will certainly miss Christmas in January, if only because it seemed a less-stressful celebration, separated in time from the very loud and commercial Christmas and New Years of the West. I liked having both options – different vibes. As in the the modified LOTR meme, "We've had one yes, but what about Second Christmas?"
posted by Kabanos at 2:53 PM on July 28, 2023 [21 favorites]
Thanks for that clarifying context, Kabanos.
posted by mediareport at 3:03 PM on July 28, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by mediareport at 3:03 PM on July 28, 2023 [1 favorite]
A small bit from today's report from ISW that jumped out at me.
posted by Flunkie at 6:46 PM on July 28, 2023 [5 favorites]
The Ukrainian General Staff reported that the 247th Guards Air Assault (VDV) Regiment (7th VDV Division) refused to go to combat near Staromayorske due to heavy Russian losses and Ukrainian battlefield victories.Of course, "The Ukrainian General Staff reported" part regarding a claim like this doesn't really scream "Unembellished, unquestionable truth", but at the very least it's still interesting.
posted by Flunkie at 6:46 PM on July 28, 2023 [5 favorites]
The internets say two bridges got hit overnight and are now closed to vehicle traffic. The Kerch bridge (now the third time it has been attacked) and the Chonhar Bridge that is the main road north out of Crimea. So now to leave Crimea by road traffic will have to go via Armiansk and then probably some secondary roads over toward Melitopol and Mariupol.
posted by interogative mood at 6:19 AM on July 29, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 6:19 AM on July 29, 2023 [3 favorites]
There is some kind of highway on the Arabat Spit to the east. Probably not smart to try to use it for military traffic, but maybe for civilian evacuation.
posted by snuffleupagus at 6:39 AM on July 29, 2023
posted by snuffleupagus at 6:39 AM on July 29, 2023
The internets say two bridges got hit overnight and are now closed to vehicle traffic. The Kerch bridge (now the third time it has been attacked) and the Chonhar Bridge that is the main road north out of Crimea. .
I only glanced at Twitter, but just saw reports of the Chonhar Bridge being hit, not the other. I hope your comment about the Kerch bridge also turns out to be true, since keeping that shut down would be very helpful.
An interesting article that seems to be getting a lot of relinking is this one by Michael Weiss and James Rushton, where they make the case that the Russian perspective on the offensive portrays it as more successful than do a lot of the western media.
posted by Dip Flash at 7:32 AM on July 29, 2023
I only glanced at Twitter, but just saw reports of the Chonhar Bridge being hit, not the other. I hope your comment about the Kerch bridge also turns out to be true, since keeping that shut down would be very helpful.
An interesting article that seems to be getting a lot of relinking is this one by Michael Weiss and James Rushton, where they make the case that the Russian perspective on the offensive portrays it as more successful than do a lot of the western media.
posted by Dip Flash at 7:32 AM on July 29, 2023
Unclear if it was hit again, or just deemed unsafe.
Russians suddenly block traffic on Crimean Bridge (7/28, Ukrainska Pravda)
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:55 AM on July 29, 2023 [2 favorites]
Russians suddenly block traffic on Crimean Bridge (7/28, Ukrainska Pravda)
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:55 AM on July 29, 2023 [2 favorites]
And the Arabat Spit was closed to civilian traffic yesterday. So it is indeed the long way around, only.
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:24 AM on July 29, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:24 AM on July 29, 2023 [1 favorite]
but at the very least it's still interesting
It is, though theprimary source is Facebook but
"It took part in the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine and its commander Guard Colonel Konstantin Zizevsky was killed in action in February 2022.[16] The regiment is being investigated in connection with the war crimes committed in Bucha.[17] An ammunition depot and a command post of the 247th Guards Air Assault Regiment was destroyed by Ukrainian forces on 22 August 2022 during the 2022 Chornobaivka attacks.[18] On September 9th, 2022, multiple news agencies reported the complete destruction of the unit during the Ukrainian counter-attack in the Kherson region."
posted by clavdivs at 3:33 PM on July 29, 2023
It is, though theprimary source is Facebook but
"It took part in the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine and its commander Guard Colonel Konstantin Zizevsky was killed in action in February 2022.[16] The regiment is being investigated in connection with the war crimes committed in Bucha.[17] An ammunition depot and a command post of the 247th Guards Air Assault Regiment was destroyed by Ukrainian forces on 22 August 2022 during the 2022 Chornobaivka attacks.[18] On September 9th, 2022, multiple news agencies reported the complete destruction of the unit during the Ukrainian counter-attack in the Kherson region."
posted by clavdivs at 3:33 PM on July 29, 2023
This war is escalating significantly. Some points:
posted by krisjohn at 10:56 PM on July 29, 2023 [7 favorites]
- Wagner soldiers appear to be lurking near the Suwałki Gap while Moscow tests out various narratives around Poland invading Ukraine and, one assumes, Russia coming to their rescue.
- As I previously linked, Russia is destabilizing Africa; attempting to blame The West for food shortages, promising free food, and using Wagner for regime change.
- This while Russia steps up destruction of food storage and port facilities in Ukraine, and threatens ships in the Black Sea
- Meanwhile, Ukraine almost certainly intends to cut off Crimea, which will cut southern supply lines to Russian forces. This will likely force Russian out of the ZNPP, so here's hoping it's before they rig it to meltdown.
- And Ukraine is now getting drones into the suburbs of Moscow.
posted by krisjohn at 10:56 PM on July 29, 2023 [7 favorites]
Perun's weekly presentation is on the situation in the Black Sea.
Niki Proshin suggests another wave of mobilization is coming in Russia.
posted by snuffleupagus at 9:55 AM on July 30, 2023 [3 favorites]
Niki Proshin suggests another wave of mobilization is coming in Russia.
posted by snuffleupagus at 9:55 AM on July 30, 2023 [3 favorites]
NYT reports that Elon Musk's Starlink satellites, which have become vital communication devices to Ukraine, are subject to arbitrary and mercurial restrictions:
Elon Musk’s Unmatched Power in the Stars
Elon Musk’s Unmatched Power in the Stars
Mr. Musk had other red lines that he would not cross. He refused Ukraine’s request last year to provide Starlink access near Crimea, the Russian-controlled peninsula, so it could send an explosive-filled maritime drone into Russian ships docked in the Black Sea, two people familiar with the discussions said. Mr. Musk later said that Starlink could not be used for long-range drone strikes.posted by meowzilla at 5:56 PM on July 30, 2023 [1 favorite]
The US government just bought terminals that Musk will have no authority over.
posted by interogative mood at 7:35 PM on July 30, 2023 [8 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 7:35 PM on July 30, 2023 [8 favorites]
> terminals that Musk will have no authority over.
it's just words in a contract. he'll do whatever he wants.
posted by glonous keming at 8:23 PM on July 30, 2023
it's just words in a contract. he'll do whatever he wants.
posted by glonous keming at 8:23 PM on July 30, 2023
I noticed that the latest drone hit was yet again in an upscale district in Moscow. And late at night in the weekend, when there would be no people at work. That's the way to do it.
And they of course have to use domestically produced drones for the strikes. Here's how the "Beaver" looks, quite a distinctive silhouette.
posted by Harald74 at 10:52 PM on July 30, 2023 [1 favorite]
And they of course have to use domestically produced drones for the strikes. Here's how the "Beaver" looks, quite a distinctive silhouette.
posted by Harald74 at 10:52 PM on July 30, 2023 [1 favorite]
In Poland a few thousand Wagnerites aren't in the news much, except as fear mongering by the right wingers in charge during the election campaign. Gotta say I am not the only one who finds it suspicious that Putin has provided a new talking point just as the opposition has a good momentum going on internal issues, especially the rights of women. Thus far the Prime Minister has speculated Wagnerites may take part in the Belarusian activities using migrants as weapons, which have been going on at the Belarusian border for ages.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 11:02 PM on July 30, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by I claim sanctuary at 11:02 PM on July 30, 2023 [3 favorites]
glonous keming: it's just words in a contract. he'll do whatever he wants.
And I have a faint inkling that in that case the US Government will tell Musk he'd better stick to the contract. With an implied Or Else that would be unwise to ignore.
posted by Stoneshop at 3:45 AM on July 31, 2023 [3 favorites]
And I have a faint inkling that in that case the US Government will tell Musk he'd better stick to the contract. With an implied Or Else that would be unwise to ignore.
posted by Stoneshop at 3:45 AM on July 31, 2023 [3 favorites]
“Russia’s not an occupier. What, you think we occupied you? We liberated Abkhazia from you. They asked us for help, so we went in with tanks. I’ve been to Abkhazia, and I saw how all the buildings have broken windows,” said one Russian woman, according to the outlet Novosti Gruzia. “We’re the Soviet Union. We’re a single country,” another Russian passenger reportedly said.‘They’re coming here and telling us we’re the occupiers’ A protest against Russian tourists in a Georgian coastal city ended with their cruise ship leaving ahead of schedule
Protesters held signs with messages like “Russian warship, go fuck yourself,” “Abkhazia is Georgia,” “Russia is an occupier,” and “Go back to your fucking country.” Additionally, they carried photos of Abkhazia and the 2008 Russo-Georgian War, and played the Georgian national anthem, according to the outlet Batumelebi.
posted by UN at 4:44 AM on July 31, 2023 [7 favorites]
AP reports that Zelenskiy, while avoiding talking directly about the Moscow drone strikes, says “Gradually, the war is returning to the territory of Russia – to its symbolic centres and military bases. This is an inevitable, natural and absolutely fair process.”
I assume this is a calculated step in negations with EU and US weapons suppliers.
Meanwhile, while the Kremlin says that the counter offensive was “not working out as planned” and that Nato resources supplied to Kyiv had been “wasted”, Medvedev still sees the need to use escalatory rhetoric about what will happen should the counter offensive succeed and if it “tore off a part of our land”
It’ll be interesting to see if more reports of poor morale in the Russian formations surface.
posted by boogieboy at 4:50 AM on July 31, 2023 [1 favorite]
I assume this is a calculated step in negations with EU and US weapons suppliers.
Meanwhile, while the Kremlin says that the counter offensive was “not working out as planned” and that Nato resources supplied to Kyiv had been “wasted”, Medvedev still sees the need to use escalatory rhetoric about what will happen should the counter offensive succeed and if it “tore off a part of our land”
It’ll be interesting to see if more reports of poor morale in the Russian formations surface.
posted by boogieboy at 4:50 AM on July 31, 2023 [1 favorite]
An Icelandic expert in Russian society was interviewed on Icelandic radio and he said something I haven’t really seen much focus on elsewhere. Apparently public discourse, in mass media and online, has changed a lot since Wagner’s coupish march towards Moscow. There’s a lot more speculation about internal politics in the Kremlin, and open talk about the increase in political imprisonments. He said that there have been comparisons made to 1937, but the Stalinist purges are routinely referred to as the “Year of ‘37” in Russian.
posted by Kattullus at 5:35 AM on July 31, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by Kattullus at 5:35 AM on July 31, 2023 [2 favorites]
> the US Government will tell Musk he'd better stick to the contract
i would agree with you if we were talking about a rational actor but i also think Musk is capable of anything and inclined to the dumbest contrarionism one could possibly imagine. if he thought some people would admire him for "sticking it to the man" he would totally consider it, US military be damned. having the US military come begging for anything, having a capability (StarLink) that they don't have, it just fuels his narcissistic megalomania. i can totally see him fucking around with that.
posted by glonous keming at 5:35 AM on July 31, 2023 [1 favorite]
i would agree with you if we were talking about a rational actor but i also think Musk is capable of anything and inclined to the dumbest contrarionism one could possibly imagine. if he thought some people would admire him for "sticking it to the man" he would totally consider it, US military be damned. having the US military come begging for anything, having a capability (StarLink) that they don't have, it just fuels his narcissistic megalomania. i can totally see him fucking around with that.
posted by glonous keming at 5:35 AM on July 31, 2023 [1 favorite]
Gwynn Shotwell isn’t going to go to jail for Elon.
posted by interogative mood at 6:43 AM on July 31, 2023 [7 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 6:43 AM on July 31, 2023 [7 favorites]
NEXTA on Twitter
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba has said that Kyiv has reached an agreement with Zagreb on the use of Croatian ports on the Danube and the Adriatic Sea for the transportation of Ukrainian grain.posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 9:53 AM on July 31, 2023 [11 favorites]
The Wagnerite situation is bringing more focus to the illegal pushbacks of asylum seekers across the Polish border into Belarus. This has been going on since 2021, but apparently after dying down a little last year when the EU pressured source countries like Syria and Iraq to suspend flights to Minsk, migrants are now coming through Moscow and the unguarded Russia - Belarus border. The big exposé is paywalled and in Polish, but some highlights:
- There are a lot of crossing attempts including big groups of over 30 people. The six metre tall border wall isn't much of an obstacle.
- People are still dying. Not from the cold right now, but broken bones after jumping off the wall, drowning in swamps, hunger, food poisoning and infections after drinking swamp water.
- Border guards are warier of activists helping the asylum seekers, so real help can be given, but these activists are often burned out after two years of a situation not getting better. It's mostly women and queer folk helping right now, there's a decent amount of aid money but hands on deck are needed.
- Locals are neutral to helpful, despite the Białowieża area reputation for being rabidly right wing. Apparently it's outweighed by hospitality tradition when faced with a hungry migrant in need of medical aid or a phone to charge.
- The asylum seekers are coming from many Asian and African unstable countries, not just Syria, Afghanistan and Iraq as before. Lots of Somalis, Ethiopians, Sudanese, Congo etc. (Fun fact: Belarusian asylum claims are generally accepted quite quickly. Ukrainians have special rules and don't have to file for asylum, just register for aid and work and healthcare access.)
- Border guards are still disrespecting the law by pushing people back across the border rather than allowing them to file for asylum, denying medical aid unless activists raise a fuss, locking people in camps when medically they shouldn't be there. Several publicised cases of denying family members access to ill or dying relatives - even when said family members were legal EU residents.
- We've gone past 40 documented deaths in Polish territory, but again, swamps. And pushbacks of deperately ill and injured people. Did I mention how freaking illegal this all is under Polish law?
In conclusion, the border situation is still infuriating, and that's before Wagnerites get really involved.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 12:41 PM on July 31, 2023 [11 favorites]
- There are a lot of crossing attempts including big groups of over 30 people. The six metre tall border wall isn't much of an obstacle.
- People are still dying. Not from the cold right now, but broken bones after jumping off the wall, drowning in swamps, hunger, food poisoning and infections after drinking swamp water.
- Border guards are warier of activists helping the asylum seekers, so real help can be given, but these activists are often burned out after two years of a situation not getting better. It's mostly women and queer folk helping right now, there's a decent amount of aid money but hands on deck are needed.
- Locals are neutral to helpful, despite the Białowieża area reputation for being rabidly right wing. Apparently it's outweighed by hospitality tradition when faced with a hungry migrant in need of medical aid or a phone to charge.
- The asylum seekers are coming from many Asian and African unstable countries, not just Syria, Afghanistan and Iraq as before. Lots of Somalis, Ethiopians, Sudanese, Congo etc. (Fun fact: Belarusian asylum claims are generally accepted quite quickly. Ukrainians have special rules and don't have to file for asylum, just register for aid and work and healthcare access.)
- Border guards are still disrespecting the law by pushing people back across the border rather than allowing them to file for asylum, denying medical aid unless activists raise a fuss, locking people in camps when medically they shouldn't be there. Several publicised cases of denying family members access to ill or dying relatives - even when said family members were legal EU residents.
- We've gone past 40 documented deaths in Polish territory, but again, swamps. And pushbacks of deperately ill and injured people. Did I mention how freaking illegal this all is under Polish law?
In conclusion, the border situation is still infuriating, and that's before Wagnerites get really involved.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 12:41 PM on July 31, 2023 [11 favorites]
Ships are calling Russia on their bluff about blockading the Black Sea. The Perun video linked to about a dozen posts above has a good examination of the various outcomes from declaring a blockade that can't really be enforced, although it did kind of consider that reactions would be more uniform across all the boats, not really thinking that it was likely that some boats would go for it so quickly, effectively publicly testing Russia's vague "or else" implication within days.
Hopefully, failure on Russia's part to take any action will greatly reduce the advantage they thought they'd get by ending the grain deal.
Note that the boats are going to the Danube, not Odesa. While Russia has attacked facilities there, it's very close to Romania and wouldn't take much for a missile to hit more than a farm across the border if it deviated as little as, say, 5% off course. Romania is a member of NATO.
posted by krisjohn at 6:57 PM on July 31, 2023 [9 favorites]
Hopefully, failure on Russia's part to take any action will greatly reduce the advantage they thought they'd get by ending the grain deal.
Note that the boats are going to the Danube, not Odesa. While Russia has attacked facilities there, it's very close to Romania and wouldn't take much for a missile to hit more than a farm across the border if it deviated as little as, say, 5% off course. Romania is a member of NATO.
posted by krisjohn at 6:57 PM on July 31, 2023 [9 favorites]
The US ambassador to the UN has stated that any attack by the Wagner Group will be treated as an attack by the Russian Federation.
posted by Harald74 at 1:02 AM on August 1, 2023 [5 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 1:02 AM on August 1, 2023 [5 favorites]
Some details via DW on the use of the Danube (from 7/21):
"Big ships cannot be fully loaded up in our Danube ports," explains Serhiy Ivaschenko of the Ukrainian Grain Association. "They have to go toward the Black Sea, into deeper waters, where the depth permits them to be loaded with more grain."
In order to reach the Black Sea, ships need to pass either the Sulin channel or the Bystry estuary. These channels are not designed for the passage of heavy cargo ships, so Ukraine has developed a project of "anchorages" so these ships can carry grain through the Danube and not run aground.
More directly from the Ukraine Grain Association:
A proposal to organise an anchorage – a transshipment in Romanian territorial waters. This kind of transshipment from grain barges to large Panamax vessels will significantly increase the capacity of the Danube route for Ukrainian grain exports. According to preliminary estimates, Ukraine’s Danube ports could double their grain exports as a result of this decision. The parties also discussed the possibility of separating the entry and exit of Ukrainian Danube ports – barges will enter the river for loading through the Ukrainian mouth of Bystre and exit to the Black Sea through the Romanian Sulinsky Canal. The possibility of using larger vessels that could pass through the Sulina Canal was also discussed, in particular, the movement of a 24,000-tonne deadweight vessel was tested.
Not sure, but my understanding is that at least some of the shipments still originate from Odesa, just on barges that can then enter the lower Danube. From a map, I don't see how ports like Reni would reachable via navigable waterways in Ukraine's interior, that would have to be by rail or road.
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:24 AM on August 1, 2023 [3 favorites]
"Big ships cannot be fully loaded up in our Danube ports," explains Serhiy Ivaschenko of the Ukrainian Grain Association. "They have to go toward the Black Sea, into deeper waters, where the depth permits them to be loaded with more grain."
In order to reach the Black Sea, ships need to pass either the Sulin channel or the Bystry estuary. These channels are not designed for the passage of heavy cargo ships, so Ukraine has developed a project of "anchorages" so these ships can carry grain through the Danube and not run aground.
More directly from the Ukraine Grain Association:
A proposal to organise an anchorage – a transshipment in Romanian territorial waters. This kind of transshipment from grain barges to large Panamax vessels will significantly increase the capacity of the Danube route for Ukrainian grain exports. According to preliminary estimates, Ukraine’s Danube ports could double their grain exports as a result of this decision. The parties also discussed the possibility of separating the entry and exit of Ukrainian Danube ports – barges will enter the river for loading through the Ukrainian mouth of Bystre and exit to the Black Sea through the Romanian Sulinsky Canal. The possibility of using larger vessels that could pass through the Sulina Canal was also discussed, in particular, the movement of a 24,000-tonne deadweight vessel was tested.
Not sure, but my understanding is that at least some of the shipments still originate from Odesa, just on barges that can then enter the lower Danube. From a map, I don't see how ports like Reni would reachable via navigable waterways in Ukraine's interior, that would have to be by rail or road.
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:24 AM on August 1, 2023 [3 favorites]
A bit more on the use of Reni by Maersk.
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:33 AM on August 1, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:33 AM on August 1, 2023 [2 favorites]
Oh fun. Belarusian military helicopters made it 3 kilometers over the border into Poland during a planned military exercise. They flew under the radar well enough that Polish forces at first denied the incursion but, well, people in Białowieża took photos.
(To be exact, activists helping asylum seekers took photos, natch. And it took ten hours for the military to verify and confirm.)
posted by I claim sanctuary at 11:39 AM on August 1, 2023 [3 favorites]
(To be exact, activists helping asylum seekers took photos, natch. And it took ten hours for the military to verify and confirm.)
posted by I claim sanctuary at 11:39 AM on August 1, 2023 [3 favorites]
To clarify, planned in the sense that Poland was told about it in advance. So neither side is looking great here. Belarus doesn't know how (or care enough) to keep its aircraft on its side of the border; and Poland isn't detecting small-scale incursions reliably.
posted by snuffleupagus at 11:42 AM on August 1, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by snuffleupagus at 11:42 AM on August 1, 2023 [1 favorite]
Or Belarus can't/doesn't care to keep a leash on Wagner, because their presence was confirmed in Brest, some 60 km away.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 11:48 AM on August 1, 2023
posted by I claim sanctuary at 11:48 AM on August 1, 2023
UA Pravda Lukashenko claims he “joked” about Wagner Group planning to attack Poland
Quote: "I joked that the Wagner fighters were whispering to each other: we are going on a tour to Rzeszów. Why? Because the equipment and weapons were going from Rzeszów to where these Wagnerites were fighting near Bakhmut. Thousands of their boys died there. And they [Wagner Group fighters] will not forgive that," the self-proclaimed Belarusian president said.posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 12:46 PM on August 1, 2023
Well I guess Poland's going to have to 'secure its own borders' instead of helping its neighboring country .... (getting people excited and fearful and inward focused could be a possible calculation for Putin to do this?)
posted by UN at 1:54 PM on August 1, 2023
posted by UN at 1:54 PM on August 1, 2023
Russian defectors tell their stories about reaching Finland by the English language department of the Finnish state broadcaster. It’s a fairly interesting portrait of what leads Russian to flee their country. Not many defectors from Russia have wanted to speak to Russian media, for obvious reasons, so it’s rare to see articles like this.
posted by Kattullus at 2:17 PM on August 1, 2023 [7 favorites]
posted by Kattullus at 2:17 PM on August 1, 2023 [7 favorites]
and Poland isn't detecting small-scale incursions reliably.
Low-flying helicopters are hard to detect on ground-based radar. That's probably why Poland has contracted to buy two 340 Airborne Early Warning aircraft from Swedish manufacturer Saab for $58 million. I think these two slightly older type aircraft were hanging around after Saab's failed bid for the Finnish HX fighter programme, and as such were both available quickly and for a competitive price.
posted by Harald74 at 11:28 PM on August 1, 2023 [3 favorites]
Low-flying helicopters are hard to detect on ground-based radar. That's probably why Poland has contracted to buy two 340 Airborne Early Warning aircraft from Swedish manufacturer Saab for $58 million. I think these two slightly older type aircraft were hanging around after Saab's failed bid for the Finnish HX fighter programme, and as such were both available quickly and for a competitive price.
posted by Harald74 at 11:28 PM on August 1, 2023 [3 favorites]
Polish Foreign Ministry says current relations with Ukraine are "not the best". Accusations of ingratitude and more.
Looks like someone forgot to send a thank you card.
posted by UN at 4:49 AM on August 2, 2023
Looks like someone forgot to send a thank you card.
posted by UN at 4:49 AM on August 2, 2023
I'm no expert in the area by any stretch, but for context:
The EU setup "solidarity lanes" to help get Ukrainian products, primarily oilseed and grain, out via road and rail transport to EU member state Black Sea and Danube ports for transshipping, e.g. via Poland & Romania, and to a lesser extent Bulgaria, Hungary, and Slovakia.
The Poles accuse the scheme of having a knock-on effect of companies getting it across the border, and then just offloading large quantities of discount Ukrainian grain directly into Poland via local mills etc, significantly undercutting their own farming industry rather than going to the effort of shipping it on to Turkey etc, to go on to countries who need it (one of the main purposes of the scheme)
Poland shut the border in May (followed by Hungary, Slovakia and Bulgaria, who had similar complaints, also backed by Romania) until they got assurances that the grain should only be passing through and not over-saturating their own markets, and 100 million in EU funding to offset infrastructure upgrade costs.
Ukraine and much of the EU now want to go to 'maximum effort' to get their grain out via the solidarity channels with the Russian repudiation of the Black Sea deal (and bombing Ukrainian ports etc) while Poland, with a general election looming, is threatening to close the border again once the current agreement ends in September, unless they can get more concrete restrictions on grain entering their own markets before there's a surge in traffic - and more EU cash for infrastructure.
Hence the uh, current disagreement, and a back and forth of summoning of ambassadors. Ukraine is pissed that Poland is threatening one of the few remaining lifelines for the Ukrainian economy, while the Poles have a pending election and a lot of pissed off farmers, and think they've already done a huge amount for Kyiv and uh, said they should be more grateful, which went down like a lead balloon.
That Lukashenko is going 'haha, you should be grateful to _us_ that Wagner hasn't invaded Warsaw yet' probably isn't helping any.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 7:38 AM on August 2, 2023 [13 favorites]
The EU setup "solidarity lanes" to help get Ukrainian products, primarily oilseed and grain, out via road and rail transport to EU member state Black Sea and Danube ports for transshipping, e.g. via Poland & Romania, and to a lesser extent Bulgaria, Hungary, and Slovakia.
The Poles accuse the scheme of having a knock-on effect of companies getting it across the border, and then just offloading large quantities of discount Ukrainian grain directly into Poland via local mills etc, significantly undercutting their own farming industry rather than going to the effort of shipping it on to Turkey etc, to go on to countries who need it (one of the main purposes of the scheme)
Poland shut the border in May (followed by Hungary, Slovakia and Bulgaria, who had similar complaints, also backed by Romania) until they got assurances that the grain should only be passing through and not over-saturating their own markets, and 100 million in EU funding to offset infrastructure upgrade costs.
Ukraine and much of the EU now want to go to 'maximum effort' to get their grain out via the solidarity channels with the Russian repudiation of the Black Sea deal (and bombing Ukrainian ports etc) while Poland, with a general election looming, is threatening to close the border again once the current agreement ends in September, unless they can get more concrete restrictions on grain entering their own markets before there's a surge in traffic - and more EU cash for infrastructure.
Hence the uh, current disagreement, and a back and forth of summoning of ambassadors. Ukraine is pissed that Poland is threatening one of the few remaining lifelines for the Ukrainian economy, while the Poles have a pending election and a lot of pissed off farmers, and think they've already done a huge amount for Kyiv and uh, said they should be more grateful, which went down like a lead balloon.
That Lukashenko is going 'haha, you should be grateful to _us_ that Wagner hasn't invaded Warsaw yet' probably isn't helping any.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 7:38 AM on August 2, 2023 [13 favorites]
Poland has contracted to buy two 340 Airborne Early Warning aircraft
Seems like a good fit. The Saab 340 is well established as a regional airliner. Sweden itself uses it for airborne radar; Thailand has a couple too. (The Saab 2000 is the stretched version, which Pakistan uses in the same role.)
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:52 AM on August 2, 2023
Seems like a good fit. The Saab 340 is well established as a regional airliner. Sweden itself uses it for airborne radar; Thailand has a couple too. (The Saab 2000 is the stretched version, which Pakistan uses in the same role.)
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:52 AM on August 2, 2023
NEXTA on Twitter
Ukrainian pilots will start training on F-16 fighter jets in August 2023posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 7:46 PM on August 2, 2023
This was announced by Volodymyr Zelenskyy at a meeting with heads of Ukraine's foreign diplomatic institutions.
"F-16. This month will begin training of our Ukrainian pilots. Now it is worth working 100% with countries that have these airplanes and will be able to transfer them to us after training," - said the President of Ukraine.
F-16 questions remain as Ukrainian pilots set to start training this month
The US is still waiting for European officials to submit a final plan for training Ukrainian pilots on F-16 fighter jets, which the US will have to authorize before the program can actually begin, officials familiar with the matter told CNN.posted by krisjohn at 8:17 PM on August 2, 2023
The training is supposed to start this month, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and European officials have said publicly. But two months after President Joe Biden announced US support for training Ukrainian pilots on F-16s, there remain a number of critical details to work out.
I had somehow fooled myself into believing that Ukraine forces had been training on F-16s for several months now, maybe since slightly before the official announcement. Maybe this is just cover, the "official announcement" of training and they're going to leap aircraft into service much earlier than expected.
I don't know where I got that idea, but it didn't come from my own brain. I heard that someplace.
posted by hippybear at 8:25 PM on August 2, 2023 [1 favorite]
I don't know where I got that idea, but it didn't come from my own brain. I heard that someplace.
posted by hippybear at 8:25 PM on August 2, 2023 [1 favorite]
I believe there were two or three that went to the US for training as part of a pilot program to see how long it would take, that may be what you are thinking of.
posted by tavella at 8:40 PM on August 2, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by tavella at 8:40 PM on August 2, 2023 [1 favorite]
It's going to happen here in Denmark. I will keep you updated.
The latest news in Danish I can find is from 11 07, where they just say it will happen in August.
I think I maybe heard on the radio that language is an issue. I suppose all pilots speak English, but maybe the mechanics don't, the program is for mechanics as well as pilots. Skrydstrup where the base is, is very remote by Danish standards, it can't be easy to find someone who can teach English to Ukrainians in a context where the teachers would need security clearance. And perhaps the Danish mechanics need to learn more technical English too, I have no idea. But all of this is speculation, I'm not even sure I remember this correctly.
posted by mumimor at 3:14 AM on August 3, 2023 [3 favorites]
The latest news in Danish I can find is from 11 07, where they just say it will happen in August.
I think I maybe heard on the radio that language is an issue. I suppose all pilots speak English, but maybe the mechanics don't, the program is for mechanics as well as pilots. Skrydstrup where the base is, is very remote by Danish standards, it can't be easy to find someone who can teach English to Ukrainians in a context where the teachers would need security clearance. And perhaps the Danish mechanics need to learn more technical English too, I have no idea. But all of this is speculation, I'm not even sure I remember this correctly.
posted by mumimor at 3:14 AM on August 3, 2023 [3 favorites]
According to independent Russian and Belarusian sources the intruding Belarusian helicopters from Tuesday had Russian crews and were part of Lukashenko's escort. They tested NATO defenses and got through for ten minutes without being detected by anyone official. If the activists and babushkas hadn't taken photos...
posted by I claim sanctuary at 10:10 AM on August 3, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by I claim sanctuary at 10:10 AM on August 3, 2023 [1 favorite]
There has been reporting of both 'evaluation flights' and further "training" of Ukrainian pilots, but the details have been vague. The distinction may be between ground school (including language) and simulation, and active flight training. Some countries were also doing limited flight training on other types. Like the UK, if memory serves.
The training regime now being reported on was also originally slated for June. So it's been reported on at least three times (original announcement, delay, commencement); that's probably part of the confusion.
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:29 AM on August 3, 2023
The training regime now being reported on was also originally slated for June. So it's been reported on at least three times (original announcement, delay, commencement); that's probably part of the confusion.
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:29 AM on August 3, 2023
Could also be that they want to release as little detail is possible so that Russia finds out they've been deployed by seeing a bunch of their own planes blown up.
posted by VTX at 10:47 AM on August 3, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by VTX at 10:47 AM on August 3, 2023 [2 favorites]
The BBC reports of sea drone attack on the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk.
According to open sources Ukrainan surface UAVs hit the Ropucha-class amphibious assault ship "Olenegorsky Hornyak" in the bay. The Russians have around 15 of this class in service, no way to know how many are actually running atm, but it's an important ship for the Black Sea Fleet, not the least because it's been assigned to logistics duty while the Kerch bridge is closed or has reduced capacity.
posted by Harald74 at 11:52 PM on August 3, 2023 [2 favorites]
According to open sources Ukrainan surface UAVs hit the Ropucha-class amphibious assault ship "Olenegorsky Hornyak" in the bay. The Russians have around 15 of this class in service, no way to know how many are actually running atm, but it's an important ship for the Black Sea Fleet, not the least because it's been assigned to logistics duty while the Kerch bridge is closed or has reduced capacity.
posted by Harald74 at 11:52 PM on August 3, 2023 [2 favorites]
CNN video about the sea drones
I saw this when it came out, but didn't have time to post it immediately and then forgot. To me, it was a good reminder that Ukraine is quite capable on its own. Very interesting (in so far as war can be interesting).
posted by mumimor at 12:10 AM on August 4, 2023 [2 favorites]
I saw this when it came out, but didn't have time to post it immediately and then forgot. To me, it was a good reminder that Ukraine is quite capable on its own. Very interesting (in so far as war can be interesting).
posted by mumimor at 12:10 AM on August 4, 2023 [2 favorites]
Alarabiya.net: Russia plans to double 2023 defense spending, costs of war rocket
Russia has doubled its 2023 defense spending target to more than $100 billion - a third of all public expenditure - a government document reviewed by Reuters showed, as the costs of the war in Ukraine spiral and place growing strain on Moscow’s finances.posted by Harald74 at 3:18 AM on August 4, 2023 [4 favorites]
I don't see how that, and another wave of mobilization, is compatible with the ongoing fiction of the "SMO." And the core of Putin's base may sour on him if their pensions aren't paid.
posted by snuffleupagus at 5:50 AM on August 4, 2023
posted by snuffleupagus at 5:50 AM on August 4, 2023
AP: Ruble hits lowest value against USD since early in Ukraine war
The decline to 95 rubles against the dollar continued the Russian currency’s consistent fall since the beginning of the year, when it traded at around 65 — a drop of about 30%.posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 8:23 AM on August 4, 2023 [5 favorites]
Friday’s value was the lowest point since March 28, 2022, state news agency Tass reported.
snuffleupagus: And the core of Putin's base may sour on him if their pensions aren't paid.
There's a Russian saying, basically "we may hunger but we will have weapons".
posted by Stoneshop at 10:44 AM on August 4, 2023
There's a Russian saying, basically "we may hunger but we will have weapons".
posted by Stoneshop at 10:44 AM on August 4, 2023
The Economist: What Ukraine’s bloody battlefield is teaching medics
Talks about everything from tourniquets to medevac drones.
posted by Harald74 at 12:20 PM on August 4, 2023 [2 favorites]
Talks about everything from tourniquets to medevac drones.
posted by Harald74 at 12:20 PM on August 4, 2023 [2 favorites]
'Crimean Officials have stated that the Explosions reported near the Kerch Strait Bridge tonight was actually the result of Air Defense Batteries attempting to Shoot Down a number of Drones over Eastern Crimea; however Russian Mil-Bloggers are claiming that an Attack by Naval and Air Drones did take place against the Bridge but that it was Defeated with No Damage occurring.'
5:44 PM · Aug 4.
posted by clavdivs at 2:48 PM on August 4, 2023
5:44 PM · Aug 4.
posted by clavdivs at 2:48 PM on August 4, 2023
Escalation around Belarus:
- Lithuania declared more than a thousand citizens of Russia and Belarus living in the country to be threats to national security on Friday and said it was stripping them of their permanent residency permits.
- Latvia to ask thousands of Russian citizens to leave the country. "There are 5,000 to 6,000 of them. These are people who have not shown any desire, either to take the exam or to obtain a temporary residence permit. They are silent. According to the current legislation, the Office of Citizenship and Migration will simply have to send them a request to leave the country within three months"
- The Security Service of Ukraine accused Russia on Friday of preparing to stage a "false flag" attack at the Mozyr oil refinery in Belarus in order to blame Ukrainian saboteurs as part of an effort to draw Minsk into the war in Ukraine.
- Poland has detained another suspected member of a Russian spy network, bringing the total number of people detained as part of an investigation to 16.
Sanctioned Russian Chemical Tanker Damaged By UAF Drones Near The Kerch Bridge In Crimea
posted by krisjohn at 6:54 PM on August 4, 2023 [4 favorites]
"These ships are working for Russian armed forces or other Russian government contractors,” said Yörük Işık, a geopolitical analyst from the Istanbul-based consultancy Bosphorus Observer. “Not only are these ships sanctioned themselves, but the company that owns them is sanctioned, all their routes are sanctioned, and they are technically trading stolen petroleum from an unlawfully seized property of the Ukrainian government." -- Sailing Under The Radar: The Intriguing Journey Of Sanctioned Ships In International Trade, Lloyd’s List IntelligenceThe ship in question is the "Sig".
posted by krisjohn at 6:54 PM on August 4, 2023 [4 favorites]
Sister ship Heil still OK, I'm guessing?
posted by Flunkie at 6:58 PM on August 4, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by Flunkie at 6:58 PM on August 4, 2023 [4 favorites]
(We would have also accepted 'Sour.')
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:01 PM on August 4, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:01 PM on August 4, 2023 [3 favorites]
Sink 'Sig' for great justice.
posted by Reverend John at 10:02 PM on August 4, 2023 [10 favorites]
posted by Reverend John at 10:02 PM on August 4, 2023 [10 favorites]
To do:
[ ] destroy world's most powerful fascist military
[ ] solve world hunger by undoing the Black Sea blockade, one ship at a time
Someone has to do it. I guess it's going to be... Ukraine.
posted by UN at 1:01 AM on August 5, 2023 [1 favorite]
[ ] destroy world's most powerful fascist military
[ ] solve world hunger by undoing the Black Sea blockade, one ship at a time
Someone has to do it. I guess it's going to be... Ukraine.
posted by UN at 1:01 AM on August 5, 2023 [1 favorite]
Ukraine Strikes 2 Bridges Connected to Russian-Occupied Crimea (archive.org)
Ukraine's damage and destruction of bridges on the easten end of northern Crimea has significantly increased the complexity of supplying Russian positions in the south-western occupied territories. Of note, the last remaining rail line north out of Crimea into Ukraine has no north-easterly branches until after it passes into Ukrainian-controlled territory. Roads are not much better, with anything other than narrow agricultural access tracks going very close to an active beachhead where Ukraine is slowly advancing towards the crossroads. This video by Denys Davydov has a lot of good detail.
posted by krisjohn at 8:57 PM on August 6, 2023 [5 favorites]
Ukraine's damage and destruction of bridges on the easten end of northern Crimea has significantly increased the complexity of supplying Russian positions in the south-western occupied territories. Of note, the last remaining rail line north out of Crimea into Ukraine has no north-easterly branches until after it passes into Ukrainian-controlled territory. Roads are not much better, with anything other than narrow agricultural access tracks going very close to an active beachhead where Ukraine is slowly advancing towards the crossroads. This video by Denys Davydov has a lot of good detail.
posted by krisjohn at 8:57 PM on August 6, 2023 [5 favorites]
It will be interesting (if that's the word) to see if either side attempts a crossing of the Syvash as done during the Russian civil war. Presumably around this location.
posted by snuffleupagus at 9:30 PM on August 6, 2023
posted by snuffleupagus at 9:30 PM on August 6, 2023
Paul Schneider, a former Special Forces commander, shares his views on training the Ukrainian military over on WorOnTheRocks: Why Ukrainian Soldiers Have To Learn To Fight On Youtube And How To Change That
Why does his view matter? He is a former commander in the U.S. Special Forces, and while lowercase "special forces" is often used to mean any well trained special operations force, in the U.S. Army it specifically refers to the unit colloquially called "Green Berets". One of their main missions is to train and lead unconventional forces behind enemy lines, and he's probably spent years of his life training for and actually performing the mission of training allied forces.
posted by Harald74 at 5:59 AM on August 7, 2023 [2 favorites]
Why does his view matter? He is a former commander in the U.S. Special Forces, and while lowercase "special forces" is often used to mean any well trained special operations force, in the U.S. Army it specifically refers to the unit colloquially called "Green Berets". One of their main missions is to train and lead unconventional forces behind enemy lines, and he's probably spent years of his life training for and actually performing the mission of training allied forces.
posted by Harald74 at 5:59 AM on August 7, 2023 [2 favorites]
krisjohn: Of note, the last remaining rail line north out of Crimea into Ukraine has no north-easterly branches until after it passes into Ukrainian-controlled territory
Rail from Russia through Donetsk and from there to Tokmak and southern Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts has gotten less attractive to Russian logistics since the section from Dolya to Volnovakha has come within range of Ukrainian artillery near Mariinka. That's one of the two links connecting the rail network in the occupied territories to Russia; the other being the Crimea bridge and from there via the now damaged bridge near Chonhar.
posted by Stoneshop at 9:52 AM on August 7, 2023
Rail from Russia through Donetsk and from there to Tokmak and southern Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts has gotten less attractive to Russian logistics since the section from Dolya to Volnovakha has come within range of Ukrainian artillery near Mariinka. That's one of the two links connecting the rail network in the occupied territories to Russia; the other being the Crimea bridge and from there via the now damaged bridge near Chonhar.
posted by Stoneshop at 9:52 AM on August 7, 2023
From the fog of war department - a long and very detailed investigative piece about The Mystery of Chernobyl’s Post-Invasion Radiation Spikes (WIRED).
TLDR: probably it was data manipulation, showing once again how deep the fog of war is, and how long it'll take to know all the details after this terrible war ends. Also:
TLDR: probably it was data manipulation, showing once again how deep the fog of war is, and how long it'll take to know all the details after this terrible war ends. Also:
Santamarta doesn’t speculate in his presentation about who was behind the manipulation if it occurred—he wanted to focus on finding a sound technical and plausible explanation of the cause. But there are two obvious suspects—Russia and Ukraine—both of which have means and motive.posted by kmt at 1:44 AM on August 9, 2023 [5 favorites]
Russia has repeatedly threatened a nuclear event to assert dominion in the conflict and, some argue, to warn NATO against getting involved. And Russian authorities have made numerous claims before and after the invasion that Ukraine was developing a radioactive dirty bomb. A Russian scientist told state media that Russian troops seized Chernobyl to prevent Ukraine from creating a dirty bomb, and the radiation spikes could have been used as “evidence” of illicit nuclear activity on the part of Ukraine.
...
As for Ukraine’s potential motives, on the day of the invasion and for days after, Ukraine was struggling to secure timely financial and military aid from Europe. Radiation spikes could have helped underscore the potential nuclear threat to EU leaders if they didn’t act quickly to help Ukraine expel Russian troops.
But there’s another possible motive as well. A Chernobyl worker may have inadvertently revealed it in an interview with the Economist after Russian troops left Chernobyl at the end of March.
He told the publication that during the occupation of the plant, Chernobyl staff had “exaggerated the threat of radiation” to Russian troops, identifying “problematic areas” that they should avoid—all as part of a “cheeky plan” to control where the soldiers went. He didn’t mention the radiation spikes, but they could conceivably have been part of this plan.
After Russian troops left Chernobyl, workers also told reporters that some of the troops had exhibited signs of radiation poisoning—they “developed huge blisters and were vomiting after ignoring warnings about digging trenches in radioactive soil.” Reporters have not been able to independently verify the claims.
Western provided basic training might not be all that well suited to the current war, says Ukrainian sources:
OpenDemocracy.net: NATO training leaves Ukrainian troops ‘underprepared’ for war
OpenDemocracy.net: NATO training leaves Ukrainian troops ‘underprepared’ for war
“I don’t want to say anything against our partners, but they don’t quite understand our situation and how we are fighting,” said a senior intelligence sergeant in the newly formed 41st Mechanised Brigade who goes by the name ‘Dutchman’. “That’s why the main training and the integrated training happens here.”posted by Harald74 at 8:11 AM on August 9, 2023 [3 favorites]
Nick Reynolds, an expert at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a UK defence think tank, said that the West’s current training for the Ukrainian military is less realistic, but safer and simpler. He admits that this approach shifts the risk from things going wrong at the training stage to things going wrong during live operations.
One of their main missions is to train and lead unconventional forces behind enemy lines, and he's probably spent years of his life training for and actually performing the mission of training allied forces.
The US has a decades long record at being terrible at training allied forces ( cf Afghanistan, Iraq, Vietnam) so that’s not a positive recommendation.
On another note, the current US military has no experience fighting a conventional war against a peer (or stronger) adversary — the last time was in Korea — so who should be training whom exactly?
posted by Galvanic at 8:25 AM on August 9, 2023 [9 favorites]
The US has a decades long record at being terrible at training allied forces ( cf Afghanistan, Iraq, Vietnam) so that’s not a positive recommendation.
On another note, the current US military has no experience fighting a conventional war against a peer (or stronger) adversary — the last time was in Korea — so who should be training whom exactly?
posted by Galvanic at 8:25 AM on August 9, 2023 [9 favorites]
Powerful Blast Hits Optical Plant Outside Moscow
The factory specializes in the production of aviation sights, thermal imagers and thermal imaging guidance systems, and surveillance tools.
The official word from Moscow is that this was a fireworks warehouse, which I'm guessing is another way to say that someone lit a cigarette..
posted by UN at 9:23 AM on August 9, 2023 [7 favorites]
The factory specializes in the production of aviation sights, thermal imagers and thermal imaging guidance systems, and surveillance tools.
The official word from Moscow is that this was a fireworks warehouse, which I'm guessing is another way to say that someone lit a cigarette..
posted by UN at 9:23 AM on August 9, 2023 [7 favorites]
While:
Here's what I can easily assemble:
posted by krisjohn at 4:22 PM on August 9, 2023 [6 favorites]
- The Wagner/Russia-supported Niger coup continues,
- Wagner troops continue to explore ways to harass Poland and Lithuania,
- Countries continue to find and remove Russian spies (recent German example), and
- Ukraine continues to choke Russian supply lines.
Here's what I can easily assemble:
- Yandex is set to start sharing Yango taxi ride data with the FSB. Users in Israel, Europe, and elsewhere may find their privacy rights compromised by Russia’s new surveillance law.
- Finland and Norway ban Yandex from transferring data to Russia
- Russia's Yandex fined for refusing to share user information with security services
- ‘Russia’s Google’ wants to sell its Russian businesses and flee the country with its most promising tech (Warning: Fortune) (2022)
- Finland arrests assets of Yandex, Russian billionaires Rotenbergs (2022)
posted by krisjohn at 4:22 PM on August 9, 2023 [6 favorites]
I don’t think the U.S. has been doing the bulk of the training and my understanding is that it was about 1/3 the length of a typical US soldier’s basic training because of urgent need. I don’t think any soldier with actual combat experience ever said yeah that training totally prepares me for this shit. I think the goal of basic training is basically to increase survival until they get experienced enough and try to keep the friendly fire incidents down.
posted by interogative mood at 6:27 PM on August 9, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 6:27 PM on August 9, 2023 [4 favorites]
I found this article by Liam Collins, Michael Kofman, and John Spencer about the battle of the Hostumel airport, a pivotal moment in the earliest part of the war, to be interesting and with relevance for where things are today.
posted by Dip Flash at 7:43 PM on August 10, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by Dip Flash at 7:43 PM on August 10, 2023 [4 favorites]
Remember the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant? Енергоатом has a Telegram channel. Here's a machine-translated version of their latest update.
posted by krisjohn at 11:15 PM on August 10, 2023 [3 favorites]
⚠️⚠️⚠️ Due to the criminal actions of the occupiers at the 4th power unit of the Zaporizhzhya NPP, an incident occurred with a water leak from the first circuit to the secondNote that a total power failure when there's a reactor in hot shutdown will likely cause a meltdown.
As a result of bringing the 4th power unit of the temporarily occupied Zaporizhzhya NPP into a "hot" state, in violation of the terms of the license and the requirements of Energoatom, an incident occurred with water leaking from the first circuit of the reactor into the second. There was no radiological release into the environment.
This happened due to a violation of the integrity of the third steam generator located in the hermetic shell of the unit. Therefore, the occupying leadership began to put the 4th power unit of the ZNPP into a "cold shutdown" state.
At the same time, during the next three days, the invaders will put the 6th power unit of the ZNPP into a "hot stop", which is another violation of the terms of the license and the requirements of Energoatom.
"The incompetent and illegitimate "management" of the ZNPP from Rosatom consistently disables the units of the seized plant. And this crime with intentional damage to the equipment of the 4th power unit, which led to the violation of the integrity of already three of the five existing physical barriers on the path of the spread of radiation, the leakage of potentially radioactive water of the first circuit beyond the established limits, damage to the expensive equipment of the first circuit, will be investigated." , - emphasized Petro Kotin, president of the State Enterprise "NAEK "Energoatom".
He added that all those involved in the incident, who continue to carry out the criminal orders of Rosatom and bring the equipment of all power units of the Zaporizhzhya NPP to a critical condition, will be identified and prosecuted after the deoccupation of the station.
Petro Kotin also reported that the 750 kV high-voltage communication line was repaired - and the ZANP was connected to the main power line yesterday, August 10, at 19:02.
We will remind you that the 750 kV ZAEP-Dniprovska line, which is the main power supply for the temporarily occupied Zaporizhzhya NPP, was damaged on the night of August 10. After that, the station had to be switched to the only available backup line of 330 kV, the disconnection of which threatened the loss of external power - a blackout.
‼️ The further occupation of the Zaporizhzhya NPP by Russia, the management of the station by illegitimate and untrained racist management, which does not bear any responsibility for the nuclear and radiation safety of the facility, is constantly bringing the ZNPP closer to disaster. The nuclear and radiation threat can be stopped only by returning control over the station to its legal operator - Energoatom!
#ЗАЕС #новини_компанії -- https://t.me/energoatom_ua/14338
posted by krisjohn at 11:15 PM on August 10, 2023 [3 favorites]
Update 178 – IAEA Director General Statement on Situation in Ukraine
Today, the 750kV Dniprovska power line disconnected twice. First for approximately twelve hours until 13:37 and then again at 16:13 local time. It remains disconnected.* These disconnections of the 750 kV power line mean that the ZNPP has had to rely on its only remaining off-site power line, the 330 kV backup line, to supply the electricity that is required, for example, to perform safety functions such as pumping cooling water for the plant. There was no total loss of off-site power to the site and there was no need to use the emergency diesel generatorsposted by kmt at 4:59 AM on August 11, 2023 [2 favorites]
ZNPP has been experiencing major off-site power problems since the conflict began in early 2022, exacerbating the nuclear safety and security risks facing the site currently located on the frontline.
“The repeated power line cuts underline the continuing precarious nuclear safety and security situation at the plant,” Director General Grossi said.
From the UN/IAEA press releases, it seems the reason given by Russia for having one reactor in "hot stop" is "steam production."
The site uses the steam generated from one reactor unit in hot shutdown for various nuclear safety purposes including the processing of liquid radioactive waste collected in storage tanks. The IAEA continues to strongly encourage the installation of an external source of process steam, which, from a nuclear safety perspective, would provide the safest longer-term solution for the steam needs at the site.
I guess when you have a bunch of nuclear reactors a backup boiler seems superfluous, but on the other hand the contingency of needing to operate safety systems in total shutdown is not unforeseeable...
posted by snuffleupagus at 6:04 AM on August 12, 2023
The site uses the steam generated from one reactor unit in hot shutdown for various nuclear safety purposes including the processing of liquid radioactive waste collected in storage tanks. The IAEA continues to strongly encourage the installation of an external source of process steam, which, from a nuclear safety perspective, would provide the safest longer-term solution for the steam needs at the site.
I guess when you have a bunch of nuclear reactors a backup boiler seems superfluous, but on the other hand the contingency of needing to operate safety systems in total shutdown is not unforeseeable...
posted by snuffleupagus at 6:04 AM on August 12, 2023
interesting. roughly 6 days ago Russia once again bombed Sich Motor.
ANKARA, Turkey — 'Russia was sending a clear message to Turkey when it bombed Ukrainian business Motor Sich, which makes engines for Turkish aircraft..."
December 22, 2022-'Turkish-Ukrainian Defense Cooperation: Drones, Engines, and More'
March 18, 2023-'Ukraine delivered the engines for the Turkish attack helicopter T929'
"Ukraine to supply Turkey with engines for heavy combat helicopter
June, 29, 2021.
Ukrainian Defense Official Says Russian Troops Redeploying In Southern Ukraine
-July 27, 2022
Russian missile hits hotel used by UN in Zaporizhzhia. August, 11, 2023.
Russia redeploys elite airborne troops to Zaporizhzhia (today)
posted by clavdivs at 3:06 PM on August 12, 2023 [2 favorites]
ANKARA, Turkey — 'Russia was sending a clear message to Turkey when it bombed Ukrainian business Motor Sich, which makes engines for Turkish aircraft..."
December 22, 2022-'Turkish-Ukrainian Defense Cooperation: Drones, Engines, and More'
March 18, 2023-'Ukraine delivered the engines for the Turkish attack helicopter T929'
"Ukraine to supply Turkey with engines for heavy combat helicopter
June, 29, 2021.
Ukrainian Defense Official Says Russian Troops Redeploying In Southern Ukraine
-July 27, 2022
Russian missile hits hotel used by UN in Zaporizhzhia. August, 11, 2023.
Russia redeploys elite airborne troops to Zaporizhzhia (today)
posted by clavdivs at 3:06 PM on August 12, 2023 [2 favorites]
Russia has elite airborne troops left? I thought they were all slaughtered during the early waves of the "invasion".
posted by hippybear at 3:37 PM on August 12, 2023
posted by hippybear at 3:37 PM on August 12, 2023
Yeah, and per the interviews with prisoners who survived their insertion at Hostomel, even at the beginning of the war their eliteness (including their actual airborne training) was greatly overstated. So, elite designation but full of hastily trained replacements. Reportedly, the 'guards' appellation has also become something of a throwaway.
posted by snuffleupagus at 3:56 PM on August 12, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by snuffleupagus at 3:56 PM on August 12, 2023 [2 favorites]
'After bloody failures in Ukraine, Russians are reconsidering the role of their military's 'elite' paratroopers'
posted by clavdivs at 4:49 PM on August 12, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by clavdivs at 4:49 PM on August 12, 2023 [2 favorites]
Think I read their role was suppressing lightly armed insurrections and looking tough in "Russia stronk" videos.
posted by sebastienbailard at 6:27 PM on August 12, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by sebastienbailard at 6:27 PM on August 12, 2023 [1 favorite]
That's probably Rosgardia, not VDV. Lighter forces than a standard mechanized formation, either way, despite any 'elite' status.
posted by snuffleupagus at 6:34 PM on August 12, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by snuffleupagus at 6:34 PM on August 12, 2023 [1 favorite]
suppressing lightly armed insurrections and looking tough in "Russia stronk" videos.
That was the VDV. Videos of shirtless paratroopers doing standing flips while throwing an axe and such were right wing porn up until they got chewed up at Hostomel. Turns out those are not useful skills on a modern battlefield.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 9:00 PM on August 12, 2023 [2 favorites]
That was the VDV. Videos of shirtless paratroopers doing standing flips while throwing an axe and such were right wing porn up until they got chewed up at Hostomel. Turns out those are not useful skills on a modern battlefield.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 9:00 PM on August 12, 2023 [2 favorites]
... but what if they threw an axe with each hand?!
posted by Flunkie at 9:05 PM on August 12, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by Flunkie at 9:05 PM on August 12, 2023 [4 favorites]
A curious proposal -- for Ukraine to sort of unilaterally make an Article 5-type commitment:
posted by Kabanos at 10:32 PM on August 12, 2023 [4 favorites]
To overcome the roadblock of a real lack of leadership in the West to help Ukraine defeat Russia, Kyiv must take unprecedented steps. By asserting its international agency, Ukraine can help bridge the perceived gap between Ukrainian and western interests.Leadership of Courage: Ukrainian Security Guarantees for Europe
Ukraine must find the resolve to offer protection to the European countries in the event they are attacked by Russia.
Ukrainian security guarantees for Europe can be formalized by issuing a declaration announcing a unilateral commitment that, in the event of an illegal armed attack by Russia on Kyiv’s partners, Ukraine will consider such attack as an act of aggression against itself, and, upon receiving request, it will provide military assistance to the victim of the aggression.
posted by Kabanos at 10:32 PM on August 12, 2023 [4 favorites]
Two Russians have been detained in Poland for posting hundreds of Wagner recruitment flyers in Warsaw and Kraków, paid for by the Russian government.
I don't know what they were trying to accomplish with this. It seems pretty out of touch — are they assuming people are so desperate to die treasonously for a fistful of rubles over here?
posted by UN at 2:30 AM on August 14, 2023 [6 favorites]
I don't know what they were trying to accomplish with this. It seems pretty out of touch — are they assuming people are so desperate to die treasonously for a fistful of rubles over here?
posted by UN at 2:30 AM on August 14, 2023 [6 favorites]
Perhaps not so surprising, but Ukraine is short on mineclearing equipment and sappers:
TheGuardian: Ukraine desperate for help clearing mines, says defence minister
TheGuardian: Ukraine desperate for help clearing mines, says defence minister
Ukraine is now the most heavily mined country on Earth and its army is suffering from a critical shortage of men and equipment able to clear the frontlines, the country’s defence minister has said, as soldiers spoke of heavy casualties in the engineering brigades.posted by Harald74 at 6:35 AM on August 14, 2023 [1 favorite]
In an urgent appeal to allies, Oleksii Reznikov told the Guardian his soldiers were unearthing five mines for every square metre in places, laid by Russian troops to try to thwart Ukraine’s counteroffensive.
He said the vast minefields could be traversed, but that it was critically important that allies “expand and expedite” the training already being provided by some nations, including Britain.
The ruble seems to be collapsing after its initial recovery last year. It is now below 100 to the dollar. Ukraine’s army continues to make slow gains in a number of areas. I don’t expect a quick victory but I think that over the next year we will see Russia slowly and inexorably pushed back. If this were a chess game Ukraine has a slight bit winning advantage in the End game; but it will take careful and accurate play to get the win.
posted by interogative mood at 7:56 AM on August 14, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 7:56 AM on August 14, 2023 [4 favorites]
The Wagner recruitment ads in Poland are part of a long running Russian psy op. Just this year we've had bomb hoaxes, false recruitment ads for a Polish-Ukrainian corps (they keep trying to push the idea that Poland will take over Ukraine), fake news about a public funded bordello in Denmark where you can have sex with turtles (hi mumimor) and other actions aimed at radicalising our right wingers. The troll farms are working overtime because centre-left led by Tusk winning the election in October would be much worse for Putin. The current lot are more concentrated on stealing than effective government.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 11:53 AM on August 14, 2023 [8 favorites]
posted by I claim sanctuary at 11:53 AM on August 14, 2023 [8 favorites]
fake news about a public funded bordello in Denmark where you can have sex with turtles
I'm simultaneously wondering "every accusation a confession?" and also thinking maybe they don't know much about turtles
posted by trig at 12:24 PM on August 14, 2023 [11 favorites]
I'm simultaneously wondering "every accusation a confession?" and also thinking maybe they don't know much about turtles
posted by trig at 12:24 PM on August 14, 2023 [11 favorites]
Those smooth underbellies though. Going to go check out Urban Dictionary to see if "Turtle Sandwich" is a thing...
OK, yes it is, but not in the way I was thinking.
posted by Windopaene at 12:31 PM on August 14, 2023 [1 favorite]
OK, yes it is, but not in the way I was thinking.
posted by Windopaene at 12:31 PM on August 14, 2023 [1 favorite]
fake news about a public funded bordello in Denmark where you can have sex with turtles
Surely not snapping turtles?
posted by Dip Flash at 12:43 PM on August 14, 2023 [4 favorites]
Surely not snapping turtles?
posted by Dip Flash at 12:43 PM on August 14, 2023 [4 favorites]
Michelangelo! Noooo!!!
posted by Reverend John at 1:51 PM on August 14, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by Reverend John at 1:51 PM on August 14, 2023 [2 favorites]
🎶 Raphael you don't have to put on the red light...
posted by Reverend John at 2:10 PM on August 14, 2023 [6 favorites]
posted by Reverend John at 2:10 PM on August 14, 2023 [6 favorites]
ok, I laughed. mumimor and snapping turtles.
posted by baegucb at 5:26 PM on August 14, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by baegucb at 5:26 PM on August 14, 2023 [1 favorite]
Mod note: Alrighty, let's take it back a notch with the continuous jokes/puns in this thread. Thanks!
posted by travelingthyme (staff) at 7:35 PM on August 14, 2023 [6 favorites]
posted by travelingthyme (staff) at 7:35 PM on August 14, 2023 [6 favorites]
Analyst Dr. Mike Martin gives his take on the last couple of weeks. Short story: The Russians are slowly running out of reserves and artillery supremacy, especially counter battery capability, and the Ukrainian strategy seems to be working. He thinks things will start moving again in a month or so.
posted by Harald74 at 4:28 AM on August 16, 2023 [12 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 4:28 AM on August 16, 2023 [12 favorites]
US reportedly approves sending F-16 jets to Ukraine from Denmark and Netherlands
This is interesting because just yesterday Danish media reported that the US wanted the planes to go to Argentina. Good that didn't happen. (I didn't post it here because it seemed so silly).
I mentioned above that language was the main barrier, which is confirmed in this article, and worse than I thought.
posted by mumimor at 12:13 AM on August 18, 2023 [3 favorites]
This is interesting because just yesterday Danish media reported that the US wanted the planes to go to Argentina. Good that didn't happen. (I didn't post it here because it seemed so silly).
I mentioned above that language was the main barrier, which is confirmed in this article, and worse than I thought.
posted by mumimor at 12:13 AM on August 18, 2023 [3 favorites]
Looks like the Wagner propaganda arrests were part of a bigger thing - apparently the first stage in recruiting potential saboteurs for the weapons transfer logistics effort in Poland and Germany. The worrying thing is that only lower ranks of this network were arrested, unless that's all that was publicised.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 10:15 AM on August 18, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by I claim sanctuary at 10:15 AM on August 18, 2023 [1 favorite]
US reportedly approves sending F-16 jets to Ukraine from Denmark and Netherlands
I've been driving and it's been on the radio all day. Apparently, the long delay was primarily because the deal had to be approved by the US, and they have been hesitating.
Military experts who were interviewed during the day said they expected the training of pilots and technicians here in Denmark will take about six months, and that they will probably go to the UK first to learn English.
Denmark and The Netherlands have already promised to deliver planes, but other countries will follow as more pilots are trained.
posted by mumimor at 2:02 PM on August 18, 2023 [2 favorites]
I've been driving and it's been on the radio all day. Apparently, the long delay was primarily because the deal had to be approved by the US, and they have been hesitating.
Military experts who were interviewed during the day said they expected the training of pilots and technicians here in Denmark will take about six months, and that they will probably go to the UK first to learn English.
Denmark and The Netherlands have already promised to deliver planes, but other countries will follow as more pilots are trained.
posted by mumimor at 2:02 PM on August 18, 2023 [2 favorites]
I still think a "Flying Tigers 2" kind of arrangement could be made. Especially since these won't operate over the front, so even if ejecting there is no risk of the pilot being captured by Russians.
posted by Harald74 at 5:05 AM on August 19, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by Harald74 at 5:05 AM on August 19, 2023 [1 favorite]
Lots of speculations as to the means of that first attack, but Malyuk sets the record straight: The head of the Security Service, Vasyl Malyuk, told how in October 2022, Ukrainians blew up the Crimean Bridge for the first time. In order to inconspicuously transport 21 tons of hexane to the bridge, the SBU employees wrapped the explosives with packing film. SBU employees specially selected such a thickness of the film that the scanners at the checkpoints would not notice the explosives. (Or maybe this is disinformation, who knows...)
posted by Harald74 at 5:07 AM on August 19, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by Harald74 at 5:07 AM on August 19, 2023 [1 favorite]
This is deep for a drone, this airbase is closer to St. Petersburg than Moscow: Ukrainian drones hit the Russian "Soltsy-2" Air Base in Novgorod Oblast. The air base is home to the Tupolev Tu-22M3, a strategic bomber used also for missile attacks against Ukraine.
The Russian MoD already confirms the damage of "one plane", likely one of the bombers.
Comes at the same time as Russian attacks hit a theatre and a university in Chernihiv.
posted by Harald74 at 5:09 AM on August 19, 2023 [2 favorites]
The Russian MoD already confirms the damage of "one plane", likely one of the bombers.
Comes at the same time as Russian attacks hit a theatre and a university in Chernihiv.
posted by Harald74 at 5:09 AM on August 19, 2023 [2 favorites]
I still think a "Flying Tigers 2" kind of arrangement could be made.
The wikipedia entry on Flying Tigers claims a proposal was made prior to the Russian invasion to send surplus military aircraft piloted by former US servicemen to Ukraine as a deterrent, but the idea was rejected by the administration.
posted by rochrobbb at 5:51 AM on August 19, 2023
The wikipedia entry on Flying Tigers claims a proposal was made prior to the Russian invasion to send surplus military aircraft piloted by former US servicemen to Ukraine as a deterrent, but the idea was rejected by the administration.
posted by rochrobbb at 5:51 AM on August 19, 2023
The Flying Tigers weren't covert — MiG Alley was the open secret.
If willing to openly stand up a volunteer squadron, especially in advance of the F-16 decision, then it should/would have been F-18s. Indeed, I'd like to see F-18s introduced into the current program once the language training is over.
The general purpose defense sector talking heads (as in, not aviation specific) being interviewed in the last couple weeks are saying strange things about the F-16. They acknowledge that it's not the best of the fourth gen fighters, and its sensitivity to basing; but say it's mostly about the sensors and weapons and the number of planes available. Which is true.
But, then they go on to say the F-16 is still a superior pure fighter to the MiG-29 (and the SU-27 derivatives) which it is decidedly not true in most engagements one would expect in this war—especially earlier models. The Fulcrum and Flankers are twin-engine air superiority fighters (even if Russian doctrine emphasizes stand-off interception). Their direct counterparts are the Eagle and the Hornet. The F-16 has turn rate and visibility advantages over the larger planes, but no one expects close-in dogfights in this war.
They also say the AIM-120 outranges and outperforms Russia BVR missiles, which is too simple of a statement. It depends on which version of the AIM-120; and ignores employment (the Russian Adder is usually fired in pairs, sometimes with complementary seekers). And they tend to ignore the Sidewinder vs. Archer comparison (presuming that Ukraine won't get the latest F-16s with helmet mounted sights).
F-16 Vs MiG-29: when the mighty Viper dogfighted with the Fulcrum for the first time.
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:10 AM on August 19, 2023 [1 favorite]
If willing to openly stand up a volunteer squadron, especially in advance of the F-16 decision, then it should/would have been F-18s. Indeed, I'd like to see F-18s introduced into the current program once the language training is over.
The general purpose defense sector talking heads (as in, not aviation specific) being interviewed in the last couple weeks are saying strange things about the F-16. They acknowledge that it's not the best of the fourth gen fighters, and its sensitivity to basing; but say it's mostly about the sensors and weapons and the number of planes available. Which is true.
But, then they go on to say the F-16 is still a superior pure fighter to the MiG-29 (and the SU-27 derivatives) which it is decidedly not true in most engagements one would expect in this war—especially earlier models. The Fulcrum and Flankers are twin-engine air superiority fighters (even if Russian doctrine emphasizes stand-off interception). Their direct counterparts are the Eagle and the Hornet. The F-16 has turn rate and visibility advantages over the larger planes, but no one expects close-in dogfights in this war.
They also say the AIM-120 outranges and outperforms Russia BVR missiles, which is too simple of a statement. It depends on which version of the AIM-120; and ignores employment (the Russian Adder is usually fired in pairs, sometimes with complementary seekers). And they tend to ignore the Sidewinder vs. Archer comparison (presuming that Ukraine won't get the latest F-16s with helmet mounted sights).
F-16 Vs MiG-29: when the mighty Viper dogfighted with the Fulcrum for the first time.
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:10 AM on August 19, 2023 [1 favorite]
ChrisO_wiki (@ChrisO_wiki@mastodon.social)
Includes video
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 5:39 PM on August 19, 2023 [5 favorites]
1/ A Russian military recruiter has revealed that army recruitment is far below the needed levels, and that if they don't reach their target "within a month or two", there will be a second wave of mobilisation. It highlights the Russian Army's continuing manpower problems. ⬇️
Includes video
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 5:39 PM on August 19, 2023 [5 favorites]
The Netherlands will donate 42 F-16s!
Denmark will also donate, but the number is not clear yet. Might be because Zelenskyj is in the Netherlands right now.
posted by Harald74 at 7:45 AM on August 20, 2023 [3 favorites]
Denmark will also donate, but the number is not clear yet. Might be because Zelenskyj is in the Netherlands right now.
posted by Harald74 at 7:45 AM on August 20, 2023 [3 favorites]
I hope we (Norway) will donate ours as well. For some reason they are being continually maintained after being taken out of service, and the sales agreements with Rumania and a private US company has not been finalised. The government insists this is for no particular reason at all...
posted by Harald74 at 7:49 AM on August 20, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by Harald74 at 7:49 AM on August 20, 2023 [1 favorite]
The air base drone strike from yesterday, were the Russian announced that a drone had "damaged" an aircraft, what they apparently meant by that was that a drone had totally gutted a Tu-22M3 strategic bomber.
This is one of the recently (post 2014) upgraded Tu-22s, which is mainly used to fire hypersonic and regular cruise missiles at Ukrainian civilans.
posted by Harald74 at 8:05 AM on August 20, 2023 [9 favorites]
This is one of the recently (post 2014) upgraded Tu-22s, which is mainly used to fire hypersonic and regular cruise missiles at Ukrainian civilans.
posted by Harald74 at 8:05 AM on August 20, 2023 [9 favorites]
Denmark will also donate, but the number is not clear yet.
As I understand it, Denmark has 40-something planes, but they are not all ready to fly, and might never be.
posted by mumimor at 9:05 AM on August 20, 2023
As I understand it, Denmark has 40-something planes, but they are not all ready to fly, and might never be.
posted by mumimor at 9:05 AM on August 20, 2023
Those tu-22m3 photos really highlight how poor the Russians opsec is.
posted by Mitheral at 9:14 AM on August 20, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by Mitheral at 9:14 AM on August 20, 2023 [4 favorites]
I suppose it's safe to mention now that Zelenskyj buzzed my cabin on Friday en route to Stockholm. A white business jet being escorted by a small fighter of sorts with yellow and blue markings. It made a racket and didn't show up on the flight radar app so my daughter asked who it was and, thinking about the well-publicized increased security, ostensibly out of concern for retaliation for Koran burnings and the general flight path of the planes I suggested it might be Zelenskyj. Lo and behold a few hours later they publicize his surprise visit.
posted by St. Oops at 9:23 AM on August 20, 2023 [12 favorites]
posted by St. Oops at 9:23 AM on August 20, 2023 [12 favorites]
The number of 42 fighters from the Dutch was apparently not formal yet. The Danes pledge 19.
posted by Harald74 at 10:33 AM on August 20, 2023
posted by Harald74 at 10:33 AM on August 20, 2023
Those tu-22m3 photos really highlight how poor the Russians opsec is.
Battle damage assessment is quick and easy!
posted by Harald74 at 10:34 AM on August 20, 2023 [3 favorites]
Battle damage assessment is quick and easy!
posted by Harald74 at 10:34 AM on August 20, 2023 [3 favorites]
what they apparently meant by that was that a drone had totally gutted a Tu-22M3 strategic bomber.
This must be the one that was only damaged, not the one that completely burnt down. If you zoom in on the photo, you can see the cockpit area is still intact.
In other news, Russian moon lander succeeded in reaching the moon.
posted by UN at 11:52 AM on August 20, 2023 [4 favorites]
This must be the one that was only damaged, not the one that completely burnt down. If you zoom in on the photo, you can see the cockpit area is still intact.
In other news, Russian moon lander succeeded in reaching the moon.
posted by UN at 11:52 AM on August 20, 2023 [4 favorites]
a Tu-22M3 strategic bomber.
Attacks like this, with a drone costing probably in the low to mid thousands destroying a strategic bomber worth some $40 million (according to google), or a couple of missiles sinking the Moskva (supposed replacement cost: $750 million), have an absolutely absurd cost-to-benefit ratio. Eventually they'll succeed in fully knocking down a section of the Kerch Bridge, and that is also going to have a crazy cost to benefit. Russia is a big country and obviously can afford a lot of losses, but this still has to hurt.
posted by Dip Flash at 12:11 PM on August 20, 2023 [4 favorites]
Attacks like this, with a drone costing probably in the low to mid thousands destroying a strategic bomber worth some $40 million (according to google), or a couple of missiles sinking the Moskva (supposed replacement cost: $750 million), have an absolutely absurd cost-to-benefit ratio. Eventually they'll succeed in fully knocking down a section of the Kerch Bridge, and that is also going to have a crazy cost to benefit. Russia is a big country and obviously can afford a lot of losses, but this still has to hurt.
posted by Dip Flash at 12:11 PM on August 20, 2023 [4 favorites]
Apparently, Putin thought the moon harbored a Ukrainian hospital or elementary school:
spacenews.com - Luna-25 crashes into moon after orbit maneuver
posted by sebastienbailard at 12:12 PM on August 20, 2023 [2 favorites]
spacenews.com - Luna-25 crashes into moon after orbit maneuver
posted by sebastienbailard at 12:12 PM on August 20, 2023 [2 favorites]
> strategic bomber worth some $40 million (according to google)
Per chatter/shitposting on /r/NonCredibleDefense/ (content warning: blurred gore imagery), that's probably the inflation-adjusted old unit cost, but they shut down production capacity 30 years ago.
There's apparently a modernization program: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tupolev_Tu-22M#Modernization , and, I would speculate, some kind of boneyard they can pick parts from.
In view of other aspects of Russian military readiness, who knows what's true there, but they've certainly been capable of launching missiles at Ukraine.
posted by sebastienbailard at 12:32 PM on August 20, 2023
Per chatter/shitposting on /r/NonCredibleDefense/ (content warning: blurred gore imagery), that's probably the inflation-adjusted old unit cost, but they shut down production capacity 30 years ago.
There's apparently a modernization program: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tupolev_Tu-22M#Modernization , and, I would speculate, some kind of boneyard they can pick parts from.
In view of other aspects of Russian military readiness, who knows what's true there, but they've certainly been capable of launching missiles at Ukraine.
posted by sebastienbailard at 12:32 PM on August 20, 2023
> Luna-25 crashes into moon after orbit maneuver
it's not a crash, it's a special exogeological operation
posted by glonous keming at 1:31 PM on August 20, 2023 [4 favorites]
it's not a crash, it's a special exogeological operation
posted by glonous keming at 1:31 PM on August 20, 2023 [4 favorites]
but they shut down production capacity 30 years ago
So priceless then. All that old Soviet stuff, once gone, is gone forever.
posted by Meatbomb at 2:05 PM on August 20, 2023 [2 favorites]
So priceless then. All that old Soviet stuff, once gone, is gone forever.
posted by Meatbomb at 2:05 PM on August 20, 2023 [2 favorites]
Putin is old Soviet stuff. From your lips to god's ears.
posted by hippybear at 2:09 PM on August 20, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by hippybear at 2:09 PM on August 20, 2023 [4 favorites]
Those old Soviet era strategic bombers are basically irreplaceable at this point. Russia doesn’t currently have the ability to make one. Even working from the old plans it would cost billions of dollars to get the assembly lines up and running again.
posted by interogative mood at 2:27 PM on August 20, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 2:27 PM on August 20, 2023 [2 favorites]
Good. Blow every one up you can get a drone to.
posted by Windopaene at 5:13 PM on August 20, 2023
posted by Windopaene at 5:13 PM on August 20, 2023
Just because people might be confusing them, this is the "Backfire" bomber (or the "Blinder" if it's the older version without swing-wings), which looks kind of like a scaled up F-111 Aardvark; not the TU-160 "Blackjack," the counterpart to the B-1 Lancer.
The original role of the Backfire was primarily attacking carrier groups. It was heavily employed in attacking Mariupol (and then Azovstal).
The Backfire was also known by its pilots as the "man eater" due to its original safety issues as well as by everyone else as the "supersonic booze carrier" as its air conditioning system used drinkable alcohol in its air conditioner, which pilots would conserve and then share with maintainers.
posted by snuffleupagus at 6:45 PM on August 20, 2023 [3 favorites]
The original role of the Backfire was primarily attacking carrier groups. It was heavily employed in attacking Mariupol (and then Azovstal).
The Backfire was also known by its pilots as the "man eater" due to its original safety issues as well as by everyone else as the "supersonic booze carrier" as its air conditioning system used drinkable alcohol in its air conditioner, which pilots would conserve and then share with maintainers.
posted by snuffleupagus at 6:45 PM on August 20, 2023 [3 favorites]
(Not sure if the folklore applies to the Backfire, or just the earlier Blinder.)
posted by snuffleupagus at 6:52 PM on August 20, 2023
posted by snuffleupagus at 6:52 PM on August 20, 2023
Apparently they're completely different planes - they share a number in order to cover up how bad the first one was.
Tip: ejection seats should eject up, not down.
via: https://www.reddit.com/r/NonCredibleDefense/comments/15r56uk/tu22_is_peak_noncredible_soviet_design (note, r/ncd has various content warnings, including both blurred gore and sexualized anthropomorphic military hardware.)
posted by sebastienbailard at 8:45 PM on August 20, 2023 [2 favorites]
Tip: ejection seats should eject up, not down.
via: https://www.reddit.com/r/NonCredibleDefense/comments/15r56uk/tu22_is_peak_noncredible_soviet_design (note, r/ncd has various content warnings, including both blurred gore and sexualized anthropomorphic military hardware.)
posted by sebastienbailard at 8:45 PM on August 20, 2023 [2 favorites]
Also while you're reading it their little gremlins will stick reactive armor on you
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 9:16 PM on August 20, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 9:16 PM on August 20, 2023 [3 favorites]
In yet another Stalinist ethnic cleansing move, Moscow plans to deport locals and relocate 300,000 Russians to occupied Mariupol.
posted by UN at 1:22 AM on August 21, 2023 [5 favorites]
posted by UN at 1:22 AM on August 21, 2023 [5 favorites]
That's all kinds of messed up (and a war crime), and will have repercussions for generations if they follow through.
posted by Harald74 at 6:09 AM on August 21, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by Harald74 at 6:09 AM on August 21, 2023 [1 favorite]
From UN's link: At the same time, residents of Mariupol and other occupied settlements are forcibly deported to Russia
The AP ran a horrifying article last month with more detail about what that "forcibly deported" means: prison work colonies for Ukrainian civilians:
Thousands of Ukraine civilians are being held in Russian prisons. Russia plans to build many more
ZAPORIZHZHIA, Ukraine (AP) — The Ukrainian civilians woke long before dawn in the bitter cold, lined up for the single toilet and were loaded at gunpoint into the livestock trailer. They spent the next 12 hours or more digging trenches on the front lines for Russian soldiers.
Many were forced to wear overlarge Russian military uniforms that could make them a target, and a former city administrator trudged around in boots five sizes too big. By the end of the day, their hands curled into icy claws. Nearby, in the occupied region of Zaporizhzhia, other Ukrainian civilians dug mass graves into the frozen ground for fellow prisoners who had not survived. One man who refused to dig was shot on the spot — yet another body for the grave.
Thousands of Ukrainian civilians are being detained across Russia and the Ukrainian territories it occupies, in centers ranging from brand-new wings in Russian prisons to clammy basements. Most have no status under Russian law. And Russia is planning to hold possibly thousands more. A Russian government document obtained by The Associated Press dating to January outlined plans to create 25 new prison colonies and six other detention centers in occupied Ukraine by 2026...
Many civilians are picked up for alleged transgressions as minor as speaking Ukrainian or simply being a young man in an occupied region, and are often held without charge. Others are charged as terrorists, combatants, or people who “resist the special military operation.” Hundreds are used for slave labor by Russia’s military, for digging trenches and other fortifications, as well as mass graves.
posted by mediareport at 8:22 AM on August 21, 2023 [10 favorites]
The AP ran a horrifying article last month with more detail about what that "forcibly deported" means: prison work colonies for Ukrainian civilians:
Thousands of Ukraine civilians are being held in Russian prisons. Russia plans to build many more
ZAPORIZHZHIA, Ukraine (AP) — The Ukrainian civilians woke long before dawn in the bitter cold, lined up for the single toilet and were loaded at gunpoint into the livestock trailer. They spent the next 12 hours or more digging trenches on the front lines for Russian soldiers.
Many were forced to wear overlarge Russian military uniforms that could make them a target, and a former city administrator trudged around in boots five sizes too big. By the end of the day, their hands curled into icy claws. Nearby, in the occupied region of Zaporizhzhia, other Ukrainian civilians dug mass graves into the frozen ground for fellow prisoners who had not survived. One man who refused to dig was shot on the spot — yet another body for the grave.
Thousands of Ukrainian civilians are being detained across Russia and the Ukrainian territories it occupies, in centers ranging from brand-new wings in Russian prisons to clammy basements. Most have no status under Russian law. And Russia is planning to hold possibly thousands more. A Russian government document obtained by The Associated Press dating to January outlined plans to create 25 new prison colonies and six other detention centers in occupied Ukraine by 2026...
Many civilians are picked up for alleged transgressions as minor as speaking Ukrainian or simply being a young man in an occupied region, and are often held without charge. Others are charged as terrorists, combatants, or people who “resist the special military operation.” Hundreds are used for slave labor by Russia’s military, for digging trenches and other fortifications, as well as mass graves.
posted by mediareport at 8:22 AM on August 21, 2023 [10 favorites]
Ukraine will cooperate with Sweden to produce CV90 IFVs in Ukraine.
The CV90 is a well regarded platform with a number of useful variants.
Per Zelensky, there are also Ukrainian pilots currently evaluating the Gripen.
posted by snuffleupagus at 9:30 AM on August 21, 2023 [3 favorites]
The CV90 is a well regarded platform with a number of useful variants.
Per Zelensky, there are also Ukrainian pilots currently evaluating the Gripen.
posted by snuffleupagus at 9:30 AM on August 21, 2023 [3 favorites]
WSJ today: Ukrainian Children Brought to Camps in Belarus, Exposed to Pro-Kremlin Propaganda (gift link)
More than 2,000 children have been brought by rail from Russian-occupied areas in Ukraine to Belarus as part of an agreement between Russia and Belarus, according to a publicly available document from the Belarusian government as well as leaked documents from Russian Railways and Belaruskali, a Belarus company funding the effort...
According to the leaked documents, the company spent millions of dollars to bring seven groups of 310 children each from Ukraine since spring 2022 to the company’s sanatorium at Dubrava, a children’s camp it owns in the south of Belarus, where they stayed between two and three weeks at a time...Photos of the camp circulating on the social-media accounts of Belaruskali and the facilities hosting the children show that they were given basic arms training, met with Russian Orthodox priests and were regaled with flashy shows that glorified Russian President Vladimir Putin.
In one video recorded in October and posted on the same social-media channels, two women entertain a group of children gathered in a small theater, praising the Kremlin leader while calling for the deaths of President Biden and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky...“So that Putin prospers and takes control of all of Ukraine,” one of the two women, holding a microphone under stage lights, said to the applause of the children.
The 4-minute video halfway down has a lot of detail.
posted by mediareport at 3:40 PM on August 21, 2023 [5 favorites]
More than 2,000 children have been brought by rail from Russian-occupied areas in Ukraine to Belarus as part of an agreement between Russia and Belarus, according to a publicly available document from the Belarusian government as well as leaked documents from Russian Railways and Belaruskali, a Belarus company funding the effort...
According to the leaked documents, the company spent millions of dollars to bring seven groups of 310 children each from Ukraine since spring 2022 to the company’s sanatorium at Dubrava, a children’s camp it owns in the south of Belarus, where they stayed between two and three weeks at a time...Photos of the camp circulating on the social-media accounts of Belaruskali and the facilities hosting the children show that they were given basic arms training, met with Russian Orthodox priests and were regaled with flashy shows that glorified Russian President Vladimir Putin.
In one video recorded in October and posted on the same social-media channels, two women entertain a group of children gathered in a small theater, praising the Kremlin leader while calling for the deaths of President Biden and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky...“So that Putin prospers and takes control of all of Ukraine,” one of the two women, holding a microphone under stage lights, said to the applause of the children.
The 4-minute video halfway down has a lot of detail.
posted by mediareport at 3:40 PM on August 21, 2023 [5 favorites]
Elon Musk’s Shadow Rule initially discusses the Starlink's role, before wondering off into other topics, which you can safely ignore.
Musk wasn’t immediately convinced. “My inference was that he was getting nervous that Starlink’s involvement was increasingly seen in Russia as enabling the Ukrainian war effort, and was looking for a way to placate Russian concerns,” Kahl told me. To the dismay of Pentagon officials, Musk volunteered that he had spoken with Putin personally.
...
On the phone, Musk said that he was looking at his laptop and could see “the entire war unfolding” through a map of Starlink activity. “This was, like, three minutes before he said, ‘Well, I had this great conversation with Putin,’ ” the senior defense official told me. “And we were, like, ‘Oh, dear, this is not good.’ ” Musk told Kahl that the vivid illustration of how technology he had designed for peaceful ends was being used to wage war gave him pause.
...
“Elon desperately wants the world to be saved. But only if he can be the one to save it.”
posted by jeffburdges at 5:23 PM on August 21, 2023 [3 favorites]
Musk wasn’t immediately convinced. “My inference was that he was getting nervous that Starlink’s involvement was increasingly seen in Russia as enabling the Ukrainian war effort, and was looking for a way to placate Russian concerns,” Kahl told me. To the dismay of Pentagon officials, Musk volunteered that he had spoken with Putin personally.
...
On the phone, Musk said that he was looking at his laptop and could see “the entire war unfolding” through a map of Starlink activity. “This was, like, three minutes before he said, ‘Well, I had this great conversation with Putin,’ ” the senior defense official told me. “And we were, like, ‘Oh, dear, this is not good.’ ” Musk told Kahl that the vivid illustration of how technology he had designed for peaceful ends was being used to wage war gave him pause.
...
“Elon desperately wants the world to be saved. But only if he can be the one to save it.”
posted by jeffburdges at 5:23 PM on August 21, 2023 [3 favorites]
Not sure I'm understanding this (from the latest ISW report, emphasis mine), because the only way I've been able to make any sense of it at all seems pretty absurd:
posted by Flunkie at 6:23 PM on August 21, 2023 [2 favorites]
Russian milbloggers continue to indicate that Russian forces lack equipment and suffer from low morale along the entire frontline. A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces – especially the 20th Combined Arms Army (Western Military District) and 2nd Combined Arms Army (Central Military District), both operating in eastern Ukraine – lack light transportation vehicles, which inhibits them from using equipment and operating effectively and reduces their morale.[10] The milblogger claimed that Russian personnel must register their privately-owned vehicles with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), after which their vehicles disappear or get transferred elsewhere.[11] The milblogger claimed that Russian commanders regularly punish servicemen who keep their vehicles for minor administrative violations and that Russian personnel feel that they are “at war” with their commanders.[12]So... you're some dude from East Bumblefuck, Siberia in the Russian army, serving in Ukraine, and your commander asks you for the Russian equivalent of the VIN of your family car back in East Bumblefuck? And then your family car mysteriously disappears from East Bumblefuck?
posted by Flunkie at 6:23 PM on August 21, 2023 [2 favorites]
Of course, another part of me is screaming "Pretty absurd? Regarding the Russian military? That's obviously the right answer, then!"
posted by Flunkie at 6:24 PM on August 21, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by Flunkie at 6:24 PM on August 21, 2023 [1 favorite]
So they're recruiting civilian vehicles into combat. That's amazing.
posted by hippybear at 6:57 PM on August 21, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by hippybear at 6:57 PM on August 21, 2023 [1 favorite]
MeFi ate the google translate of that telegram post, and I lack the spoons to piece it together again at the moment, but it didn't appear to be exactly confiscating the personal vehicles of conscripted soldiers. But definitely that the lack of transport is a serious problem, to the point of accepting/commandeering civilian vehicles, chaotically. See also previous lampooning of "scooby doo vans" moved on trains.
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:14 PM on August 21, 2023
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:14 PM on August 21, 2023
Alert – U.S. Embassy Minsk, Belarus (August 21, 2023)
U.S. citizens in Belarus should depart immediately. Consider departing via the remaining border crossings with Lithuania and Latvia, or by plane. U.S. citizens are not permitted to enter Poland overland from Belarus. Do not travel to Russia or to Ukraine.posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 7:25 PM on August 21, 2023 [6 favorites]
So they're recruiting civilian vehicles into combat. That's amazing.
I don't know if the story about them requisitioning cars from their own soldiers is true, but there has been video of them in civilian cars and vans (presumably stolen but who knows) from the early days of the war. The very first "drone drops a grenade on Russian soldiers" video I ever saw was one where the Russian soldiers all pile into a civilian Lada sedan and then the pilot drops the grenade through the sunroof of the moving car, in early 2022. When they were having all those early logistical problems trying to move supplies, there were photos and videos of Russian trains loaded down with civilian trucks headed towards the front, too. It's been a chronic problem from early on.
The Ukranians have also spent much of the war driving around in unarmored trucks and SUVs, though usually painted green and mostly donated, not stolen.
posted by Dip Flash at 8:19 PM on August 21, 2023
I don't know if the story about them requisitioning cars from their own soldiers is true, but there has been video of them in civilian cars and vans (presumably stolen but who knows) from the early days of the war. The very first "drone drops a grenade on Russian soldiers" video I ever saw was one where the Russian soldiers all pile into a civilian Lada sedan and then the pilot drops the grenade through the sunroof of the moving car, in early 2022. When they were having all those early logistical problems trying to move supplies, there were photos and videos of Russian trains loaded down with civilian trucks headed towards the front, too. It's been a chronic problem from early on.
The Ukranians have also spent much of the war driving around in unarmored trucks and SUVs, though usually painted green and mostly donated, not stolen.
posted by Dip Flash at 8:19 PM on August 21, 2023
During the Cold War Norway requisitioned civilian vehicles in case of war. My father's pretty old Volvo dump lorry got a requisitioning card in the mail in the late 80s I think. And light 4x4s were also requisitioned, mostly American or German ones. At the height of the Cold War we had something like 11 army brigades on paper, but not enough material to equip all of them.
posted by Harald74 at 12:29 AM on August 22, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by Harald74 at 12:29 AM on August 22, 2023 [1 favorite]
The CV90 is probably the best IFV for the money right now. BAE Hägglunds have something like a two year backlog now*, though, so a separate production line in Ukraine might reduce lead times.
However, I can't help but think that getting the steel and the subsystems in quantity is the bottleneck, not the number of hands on the production line. But we'll see.
*) Big orders from Czechia and Slovakia among other work
posted by Harald74 at 12:34 AM on August 22, 2023
However, I can't help but think that getting the steel and the subsystems in quantity is the bottleneck, not the number of hands on the production line. But we'll see.
*) Big orders from Czechia and Slovakia among other work
posted by Harald74 at 12:34 AM on August 22, 2023
I realise that I have an easier time engaging with procurement and technical matters rather than thinking too closely about the kidnapped children and the forced labour camps. *sigh*
Fuck this for a revival of the "good old days"...
posted by Harald74 at 12:38 AM on August 22, 2023 [7 favorites]
Fuck this for a revival of the "good old days"...
posted by Harald74 at 12:38 AM on August 22, 2023 [7 favorites]
UN: In other news, Russian moon lander succeeded in reaching the moon.
Well, the health of one advising astronomer has apparently taken the same trajectory as the Luna-25: sharply downwards, although he hasn't crashed yet.
posted by Stoneshop at 3:57 AM on August 22, 2023
Well, the health of one advising astronomer has apparently taken the same trajectory as the Luna-25: sharply downwards, although he hasn't crashed yet.
posted by Stoneshop at 3:57 AM on August 22, 2023
Not the success I thought it was at first. The man's kamikaze drone failed to destroy the moon. He will be punished.
posted by UN at 4:33 AM on August 22, 2023
posted by UN at 4:33 AM on August 22, 2023
“Is the exchange of territories of Ukraine considered for joining NATO?” was asked to Zelenskyi.
“We are ready to exchange Belgorod for Ukraine's membership in NATO,” Zelenskyi replied.
posted by sammyo at 12:18 PM on August 22, 2023 [12 favorites]
“We are ready to exchange Belgorod for Ukraine's membership in NATO,” Zelenskyi replied.
posted by sammyo at 12:18 PM on August 22, 2023 [12 favorites]
Where is Toyota with a fleet of Hiluxes ready to roll? For a civilian vehicle appropriated by the military, they're pretty legit. They saw action in Lybia even!
If I remember right it's the previous generation Tacoma, before it got so big. They have a reputation for being able to take some extreme abuse and keep on running.
posted by VTX at 2:55 PM on August 22, 2023
If I remember right it's the previous generation Tacoma, before it got so big. They have a reputation for being able to take some extreme abuse and keep on running.
posted by VTX at 2:55 PM on August 22, 2023
This frontline is kilometers of trenches, minefields and saturation fire of artillery / cluster munitions. "Technicals" are not well suited for these conditions.
posted by interogative mood at 3:18 PM on August 22, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by interogative mood at 3:18 PM on August 22, 2023 [1 favorite]
An article on the destruction of that TU-22 and allegedly four more planes in the past couple of days also mentions that Ernst Stavro Blofeld General Surovikin has been dismissed as head of the Russian Air Force.
posted by Stoneshop at 1:42 AM on August 23, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by Stoneshop at 1:42 AM on August 23, 2023 [2 favorites]
STOLYPIN: The limits of Russian mobilisation (BNE IntelliNews):
Putin can have more critics arrested, more NGOs closed down, more elections rigged. He will almost certainly have to hold another partial mobilisation once the September gubernatorial elections are out of the way, needing to find another 200,000-plus to make up for attrition from various causes. More factories will convert to defence production. The resilience of the Russian state is considerable, after all. However, the fantasies of a productive and warfighting effort comparable to WW2's will remain no more than that.posted by kmt at 3:44 AM on August 23, 2023
In the Endless Putin Speculation department, Putin has strange deep voice in address to BRICS summit [Politico]
Apparently he had his video statement dubbed for some reason.
posted by hippybear at 9:43 AM on August 23, 2023
Apparently he had his video statement dubbed for some reason.
posted by hippybear at 9:43 AM on August 23, 2023
Parkinsons, maybe. Would track with some of the other past observations (like the table-gripping and posture stuff, other changes in his appearance), as well a deterioration of decision-making and discernment, willy nilly firings, etc.
Still kinda weird, given the state of vocal deepfake tools and all the recordings of Putin available to train a model.
posted by snuffleupagus at 9:56 AM on August 23, 2023
Still kinda weird, given the state of vocal deepfake tools and all the recordings of Putin available to train a model.
posted by snuffleupagus at 9:56 AM on August 23, 2023
The highest of windows.
Ten killed in private jet crash north of Moscow - Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin 'on passenger list'
Ten killed in private jet crash north of Moscow - Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin 'on passenger list'
Ten people have been killed in a private jet crash north of Moscow - with the Russian Civil Aviation Authority saying Yevgeny Prigozhin was on the passenger list.posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 10:12 AM on August 23, 2023 [8 favorites]
Seven passengers and three were on board the Embraer aircraft, which was en route from Moscow to St Petersburg, TASS news agency reported.
Prigozhin Listed as Passenger on Plane That Crashed, Killing All Aboard (NYTimes)
posted by nobody at 10:31 AM on August 23, 2023
posted by nobody at 10:31 AM on August 23, 2023
The plane was an Embraer Legacy 600. It's part of the ERJ family, based on the Bombardier CRJ. These planes have a pretty good safety record, and the most significant incidents were not a result of any design defects. Until now, the ERJ family has had no fatal hull losses.
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:43 AM on August 23, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:43 AM on August 23, 2023 [1 favorite]
From WSJ (no gift link option yet, sorry):
Footage posted by onlookers in the Tver region showed what seemed like the trail of an antiaircraft missile and then the jet, an Embraer Legacy 600, falling out of the sky with one wing missing. Social media channels close to Wagner said that Russian air defenses had shot down the plane, which was one of several aircraft owned by Prigozhin.
posted by mediareport at 10:49 AM on August 23, 2023 [1 favorite]
Footage posted by onlookers in the Tver region showed what seemed like the trail of an antiaircraft missile and then the jet, an Embraer Legacy 600, falling out of the sky with one wing missing. Social media channels close to Wagner said that Russian air defenses had shot down the plane, which was one of several aircraft owned by Prigozhin.
posted by mediareport at 10:49 AM on August 23, 2023 [1 favorite]
Amateur radio folks over on reddit are reporting that the 30m band is being wiped out last night (and sporadically over the last few weeks) and suspecting it's Russian jamming or radar.
I have no insight or analysis here, but I think the timing is suspicious.
posted by loquacious at 10:49 AM on August 23, 2023 [1 favorite]
I have no insight or analysis here, but I think the timing is suspicious.
posted by loquacious at 10:49 AM on August 23, 2023 [1 favorite]
the trail of an antiaircraft missile
So, natural causes. Got it.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 10:58 AM on August 23, 2023 [3 favorites]
So, natural causes. Got it.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 10:58 AM on August 23, 2023 [3 favorites]
NEXTA on X
Other reports are that it was a 6 month intelligence operation and included two crewmen who had no idea what was happening.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 11:03 AM on August 23, 2023 [4 favorites]
❗️ Russian Mi-8 military helicopter flew into Ukrainian territory and surrendered with the entire crew
According to one version, the pilot of the helicopter purposefully crossed the border to surrender and hand over the equipment. It is also reported that his family was taken to Ukraine in advance. It is also known that the helicopter may have had spare parts for Su-30 airplanes on board.
The Russian side does not officially confirm this information. However, the military media close to the Russian Air Force say that there was a navigation error and "the pilot got lost".
Other reports are that it was a 6 month intelligence operation and included two crewmen who had no idea what was happening.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 11:03 AM on August 23, 2023 [4 favorites]
Lots of people will swear to this day they saw the missile trail to TWA800 that never existed.
Not saying this one is wrong, but the laws of breaking news apply.
posted by stevis23 at 11:04 AM on August 23, 2023 [4 favorites]
Not saying this one is wrong, but the laws of breaking news apply.
posted by stevis23 at 11:04 AM on August 23, 2023 [4 favorites]
So how can I get rid of a rival and send a message to my circle of billionaire oligarchs at the same time?
posted by cmfletcher at 11:15 AM on August 23, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by cmfletcher at 11:15 AM on August 23, 2023 [2 favorites]
There are multiple videos on line now showing the crash and aftermath. Here is a Reddit comment with links to a few.. It seems pretty clear that the plane was taken out by an air defense system.
posted by interogative mood at 11:15 AM on August 23, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by interogative mood at 11:15 AM on August 23, 2023 [1 favorite]
Fuck Around with Putin and Find Out.
posted by Windopaene at 11:19 AM on August 23, 2023
posted by Windopaene at 11:19 AM on August 23, 2023
The amount of impunity that Proggy was exhibiting with his post-aborted-coup life felt really treacherous to me. Seems like he should have stuck to moving around on the ground without attracting attention.
This could also be a ploy so everyone thinks he's dead but he isn't really. That thought won't get out of my mind.
posted by hippybear at 11:19 AM on August 23, 2023 [1 favorite]
This could also be a ploy so everyone thinks he's dead but he isn't really. That thought won't get out of my mind.
posted by hippybear at 11:19 AM on August 23, 2023 [1 favorite]
i wonder how many people are thinking they'd better get putin before he gets them - the message seems clear
posted by pyramid termite at 11:22 AM on August 23, 2023
posted by pyramid termite at 11:22 AM on August 23, 2023
Probably less than are thinking they'd better keep on keeping their heads down and not attract attention. Especially not by mounting a coup.
posted by Flunkie at 11:32 AM on August 23, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by Flunkie at 11:32 AM on August 23, 2023 [2 favorites]
Well, that's a relief re Lukashenko's threats to send Prigozhin into Poland.
And as far as civilian vehicles in the war go, feel free to drop a penny in Exen's donation box. He's currently at 131 pickups and 4x4s delivered to Ukrainian armed forces and allied volunteers. Only 6 Hiluxes, but that's because they're not as popular in Europe - but the Ukrainians aren't picky, they're even taking RAV4s with a few aftermarket bulletproof plates.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 11:42 AM on August 23, 2023 [3 favorites]
And as far as civilian vehicles in the war go, feel free to drop a penny in Exen's donation box. He's currently at 131 pickups and 4x4s delivered to Ukrainian armed forces and allied volunteers. Only 6 Hiluxes, but that's because they're not as popular in Europe - but the Ukrainians aren't picky, they're even taking RAV4s with a few aftermarket bulletproof plates.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 11:42 AM on August 23, 2023 [3 favorites]
I didn't even know there were aftermarket bulletproof plates for RAV4s.
posted by hippybear at 11:46 AM on August 23, 2023
posted by hippybear at 11:46 AM on August 23, 2023
I wonder if every morning for the last two months Prigozhin woke up and wondered if that was the day he would die.
I'm sure everyone wanted the Wagner troops in Syria and Africa to continue to operate regardless of whatever happens to Prigozhin and maybe it's taken this long to ensure that.
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 11:47 AM on August 23, 2023 [1 favorite]
I'm sure everyone wanted the Wagner troops in Syria and Africa to continue to operate regardless of whatever happens to Prigozhin and maybe it's taken this long to ensure that.
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 11:47 AM on August 23, 2023 [1 favorite]
Aftermarket bulletproof plates made by the proverbial "us and my brother in law" (my ze szwagrem), always the most reliable firm in Poland. And oops, poor guy didn't have time to update the donation page - according to his Twitter he's at 137 cars transferred to final recipients and 20 more getting new features and paint jobs.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 12:01 PM on August 23, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by I claim sanctuary at 12:01 PM on August 23, 2023 [2 favorites]
Since the drone attacks on the Tupolev Tu-22M3 bombers most likely came from Ukrainian saboteurs working inside Russia, is there any chance that Prigozhin was shot down by the Ukrainians?
posted by 1970s Antihero at 12:08 PM on August 23, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by 1970s Antihero at 12:08 PM on August 23, 2023 [1 favorite]
I don't think the Ukrainians would bother solving Russia's problem for them.
posted by tavella at 12:22 PM on August 23, 2023 [7 favorites]
posted by tavella at 12:22 PM on August 23, 2023 [7 favorites]
I'm just an armchair whatever but why would Ukraine take out Prigozhin in a civilian jet 10 miles from Moscow?
It's a huge operational risk, could change world sympathy for attacking civilian aircraft, and ultimately for no real reward. They guy was at best on the sidelines and a blemish on Putin's strongman image.
posted by cmfletcher at 12:24 PM on August 23, 2023 [3 favorites]
It's a huge operational risk, could change world sympathy for attacking civilian aircraft, and ultimately for no real reward. They guy was at best on the sidelines and a blemish on Putin's strongman image.
posted by cmfletcher at 12:24 PM on August 23, 2023 [3 favorites]
And it's a SAM and team they could use to take out a Russian bomber.
posted by sebastienbailard at 12:29 PM on August 23, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by sebastienbailard at 12:29 PM on August 23, 2023 [4 favorites]
I'm just an armchair whatever but why would Ukraine take out Prigozhin in a civilian jet 10 miles from Moscow?
I'd be curious about the rest of the passenger manifest. Maybe this was an easy way to eliminate everyone at the top of Wagner that they felt was responsible for the rebellion, in one go, and one that has that kind of ambiguity / deniability that you don't get if you just, y'know, shoot them. (oh, you said, *Ukraine*, well I dunno)
posted by dis_integration at 12:32 PM on August 23, 2023
I'd be curious about the rest of the passenger manifest. Maybe this was an easy way to eliminate everyone at the top of Wagner that they felt was responsible for the rebellion, in one go, and one that has that kind of ambiguity / deniability that you don't get if you just, y'know, shoot them. (oh, you said, *Ukraine*, well I dunno)
posted by dis_integration at 12:32 PM on August 23, 2023
Ah, but what if the Ukrainians thought it wasn't Prigozhin on board, but Putin?!
DO YOUR RESEARCH, SHEEPLE
posted by Flunkie at 12:33 PM on August 23, 2023
DO YOUR RESEARCH, SHEEPLE
posted by Flunkie at 12:33 PM on August 23, 2023
Putin doesn't fly. This is well known.
posted by hippybear at 12:38 PM on August 23, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by hippybear at 12:38 PM on August 23, 2023 [3 favorites]
Putin, fly? Only in an East German discotheque.
posted by snuffleupagus at 12:58 PM on August 23, 2023
posted by snuffleupagus at 12:58 PM on August 23, 2023
BBC saying Priggy confirmed dead. Wagner's commander and co-founder Dmitry Utkin was also onboard.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 1:33 PM on August 23, 2023
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 1:33 PM on August 23, 2023
Lots of people will swear to this day they saw the missile trail to TWA800 that never existed.
Lot more video cameras in pockets now though.
posted by Mitheral at 1:38 PM on August 23, 2023
Lot more video cameras in pockets now though.
posted by Mitheral at 1:38 PM on August 23, 2023
cmfletcher: 10 miles from Moscow?
300km, 200 miles, about halfway between Moscow and St. Petersburg near the Russian version of Bumfuck, AZ.
posted by Stoneshop at 1:39 PM on August 23, 2023
300km, 200 miles, about halfway between Moscow and St. Petersburg near the Russian version of Bumfuck, AZ.
posted by Stoneshop at 1:39 PM on August 23, 2023
DC to NY is about 200 mi. Bumfuck in Russia is presumably somewhere with more permafrost than people. There's cell phone video...
posted by snuffleupagus at 1:42 PM on August 23, 2023
posted by snuffleupagus at 1:42 PM on August 23, 2023
BBC saying Priggy confirmed dead.
BBC saying there's a message on a Wagner Telegram channel saying he's dead, and Utkin too.
"Prigozhin's death is yet to be officially confirmed."
posted by Stoneshop at 1:43 PM on August 23, 2023
BBC saying there's a message on a Wagner Telegram channel saying he's dead, and Utkin too.
"Prigozhin's death is yet to be officially confirmed."
posted by Stoneshop at 1:43 PM on August 23, 2023
BBC saying Priggy confirmed dead.Could you please be more specific about where and how the BBC said this? I looked your link, but I didn't see anything that couldn't at least be interpreted differently. For example, I saw that the BBC has published the headline "Prigozhin was on board plane, Russian aviation authority says", but that seems to be the result of an overexcited and/or nonstellar headline editor: The actual text that that headline is supposedly describing only indicates that the FAA-ish people are just saying that he was on the passenger manifest.
Does the BBC say elsewhere anything that's more clear about him being "confirmed dead"?
posted by Flunkie at 1:50 PM on August 23, 2023
The BBC's headline is quite literally "presumed dead." The article uses plenty of qualifiers and speculates on what will come "if confirmed."
posted by snuffleupagus at 1:52 PM on August 23, 2023
posted by snuffleupagus at 1:52 PM on August 23, 2023
I'm not sure if that's a reply to me or someone else, snuffleupagus, but if me, "presumed dead" is not "confirmed dead", and in any case, I think it's safe to say that the BBC has at least one headline writer working on this who's not exactly doing a fantastic job.
posted by Flunkie at 1:55 PM on August 23, 2023
posted by Flunkie at 1:55 PM on August 23, 2023
(just to get rid of apparent weirdness): When I wrote my reply, snuffleupagus's comment only had their first sentence, not the second.
posted by Flunkie at 1:56 PM on August 23, 2023
posted by Flunkie at 1:56 PM on August 23, 2023
Apologies, I misunderstood "declared as travelling on board the crashed plane" to mean Russia's Federal Air Transport Agency had confirmed they were aboard.
The 'presumed dead' update was from later.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 2:17 PM on August 23, 2023
The 'presumed dead' update was from later.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 2:17 PM on August 23, 2023
Maybe it should be read that way? Or CBS is making the same mistake.
Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin was on plane that crashed, Russian aviation agency says
Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin was on plane that crashed, Russian aviation agency says
Mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin, who led a brief armed rebellion against the Russian military earlier this year, was aboard a plane that crashed north of Moscow on Wednesday, killing all 10 people on board, according to Russia's civil aviation agency.posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 2:31 PM on August 23, 2023
So far ABC News [US] is the only outlet I've seen using language declaring him dead. Everywhere else is using hedged language.
posted by hippybear at 2:33 PM on August 23, 2023
posted by hippybear at 2:33 PM on August 23, 2023
I wouldn't be surprised if CBS were making the same mistake (though, if so, they're making it both in the headline and in the one brief sentence of the article that really is about it). Again, look at the BBC thing you linked to. Headline:
posted by Flunkie at 2:39 PM on August 23, 2023
Prigozhin was on board plane, Russian aviation authority saysText:
Russia's Federal Air Transport Agency has included Yevgeny Prigozhin's name on a list of those "declared as travelling on board the crashed plane".It seems pretty clear to me that the large, important difference between what the headline claims and what the FATA (or whatever they're called) claimed is quite likely the result of a game of telephone, and I don't see why CBS would be obviously not making the same mistake.
posted by Flunkie at 2:39 PM on August 23, 2023
Crucially though, that doesn’t mean “we don’t believe he’s really dead,” just “we’re waiting for more definitive confirmation.” It’s the same after natural disasters, in the first hours or days the number of people “confirmed dead” always lags enormously behind the number of people who are merely obviously dead.
posted by showbiz_liz at 2:41 PM on August 23, 2023
posted by showbiz_liz at 2:41 PM on August 23, 2023
Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin was on plane that crashed, Russian aviation agency says
The headline should have been written more clearly since a lot of people will just glance at it and forget the second clause, but to me the second clause reads as "if you want to believe the Russian aviation agency".
posted by trig at 2:42 PM on August 23, 2023
The headline should have been written more clearly since a lot of people will just glance at it and forget the second clause, but to me the second clause reads as "if you want to believe the Russian aviation agency".
posted by trig at 2:42 PM on August 23, 2023
To be clear, I'm not implying that they're implying that they don't believe he's really dead. All I'm saying is that it sure seems likely that (as widely reported elsewhere) FATA looked at the passenger manifest, saw he was on the list, and announced something that a few outlets (mis-)interpreted as "he was on the plane".
posted by Flunkie at 2:48 PM on August 23, 2023
posted by Flunkie at 2:48 PM on August 23, 2023
NYT, two minutes ago, emphasis mine:
Conspiracy theories and misinformation flowed across the internet on Wednesday about the founder of the Wagner mercenary group, Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, after he was listed as a passenger on a plane that crashed outside Moscow earlier in the day.posted by Flunkie at 2:55 PM on August 23, 2023
People made claims that Mr. Prigozhin had staged the crash to fake his own death, on the same QAnon message boards in which others said that the U.S. was secretly responsible for his death. On far-right Telegram channels, users posted images of a map showing a second plane leaving Moscow shortly after the first, doomed flight, along with the claims that Mr. Prigozhin was on a second plane also owned by his company. The New York Times was not able to verify any of the claims.
The unclear circumstances surrounding the crash created exactly the type of confusion in which misinformation can easily spread, an irony given that Mr. Prigozhin was a pioneer in the field of establishing and sowing misinformation campaigns.
Although Russian officials said Mr. Prigozhin was listed on the plane’s manifest on Wednesday and that all 10 people on the flight were killed, officials have not said publicly that his remains had been identified.
This all puts me in mind of this line by Mr. Blonde (Michael Madsen's character) from Reservoir Dogs, in regards to one of the missing thugs:
"Either he's alive...or he's dead. Or the cops got him...or they don't."
posted by Insert Clever Name Here at 3:06 PM on August 23, 2023 [3 favorites]
"Either he's alive...or he's dead. Or the cops got him...or they don't."
posted by Insert Clever Name Here at 3:06 PM on August 23, 2023 [3 favorites]
schrödinger's warlord
posted by Flunkie at 3:09 PM on August 23, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by Flunkie at 3:09 PM on August 23, 2023 [4 favorites]
We can't know if he's dead or not. But we do know that there's effectively a power vacuum at the top of Wagner at the moment. We can speculate on a range of possible immediate events:Wagner soldiers will therefore be a massive wildcard, like dropping a bag of marbles. Continuing to predict their actions as a unified object is not currently valuable. The smart ones have probably already activated their escape plans. Conspiracy theories will abound. Lukashenko will have always never have had any interest in or support for Wagner. Belarus was not offering sanctuary to Wagner soldiers, and there's definitely nothing happening near the Polish border, why would there be? Immediate narratives will be contradictory, mutually exclusive, and half-baked. Anything that gains purchase will be developed, anything that doesn't will be forgotten and denied. This is all highly destabilizing. Places this is likely to be most destabilizing are;
posted by krisjohn at 4:52 PM on August 23, 2023 [3 favorites]
- Wherever Wagner worked with a partner, that partner will likely remove ("Please, don't make me use some foolish euphemism") Wagner employees and consolidate control of the venture.
- Wagner employees, particularly the armed kind, now don't know if;
- They will be paid,
- They will be killed,
- Their families will disappear,
- Some combination of the above
- They are neither truth nor lies, but more akin to a writing prompt. The influential will use them to do whatever they were going to do anyway.
- An environment of high uncertainty offers plenty of opportunity for the unscrupulous.
- Russia,
- Belarus (particularly if Lukashenko was intending to use Wagner against Russia's influence),
- Niger (see "foolish euphemism" above), and
- Türkiye, which I would expect to be very pro-NATO again suddenly.
posted by krisjohn at 4:52 PM on August 23, 2023 [3 favorites]
Are we assuming the new post is the next one of these?
posted by krisjohn at 6:17 PM on August 23, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by krisjohn at 6:17 PM on August 23, 2023 [2 favorites]
Might as well. We've got about a day left on this one.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 6:43 PM on August 23, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 6:43 PM on August 23, 2023 [3 favorites]
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